美盛公司 (MOS) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2021 年第二季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

Your host for today's call is Laura Gagnon, Vice President of Investor Relations of The Mosaic Company. Ms. Gagnon, you may begin.

今天會議的主持人是美國美盛公司投資人關係副總裁 Laura Gagnon。Gagnon 女士，您可以開始。

Thank you and welcome to our second quarter 2021 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat as well as open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Jenny Wang, Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing; and other members of the leadership team will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎各位參加我們 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Joc O'Rourke 提供，接著進行爐邊談話以及開放式問答。資深副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland；全球策略行銷副總裁 Jenny Wang；以及其他領導團隊成員也將在場回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release furnished yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於關於未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理階層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日提供的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our second quarter press release and performance data attached as exhibits to yesterday's Form 8-K filing also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們第二季新聞稿，以及作為昨日 Form 8-K 申報附件所附的績效資料，也包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話會議交給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our second quarter earnings discussion. I hope you've had a chance to review our posted commentary and slides as well as our news release and performance data, all made available on our website yesterday. Today, I will provide some additional context before we respond to questions we received last night, and then we'll conclude with a live Q&A session.

早安。感謝各位參加我們第二季財報討論。我希望各位已經有機會閱讀我們昨日在網站上發布的評論與簡報，以及新聞稿與績效資料。今天，在回應我們昨晚收到的問題之前，我會先提供一些補充背景，之後我們將以即時問答環節作結。

Mosaic delivered excellent financial performance in the second quarter, and the second half of 2021 is set up to be one of the strongest periods in over a decade. Our earnings are driven by 2 key factors. First, strong underlying agricultural markets, coupled with tight fertilizer demand dynamics, are driving fertilizer prices higher. Second, and just as important, are the results of our effort to optimize our business to fully realize the benefit of these market trends.

美盛在第二季交出優異的財務表現，而 2021 年下半年有望成為十多年來最強勁的時期之一。我們的獲利主要由兩個關鍵因素驅動。第一，強勁的農業基本面市場，加上肥料需求面緊俏的動態，正推升肥料價格。第二，同樣重要的是，我們為了最佳化業務、以充分掌握這些市場趨勢所帶來效益而付出的努力，已展現成果。

Throughout our long-term and ongoing work to reduce costs, we've created significant earning leverage as this quarter's performance demonstrates. Looking ahead, we expect further upside. Our third quarter order book is now 90% committed and priced. As a result, we expect a sequential increase of $90 to $100 per tonne in realized phosphate prices and $25 to $35 per tonne in realized potash prices.

在我們長期且持續的降本工作中，我們建立了顯著的獲利槓桿，本季表現即為明證。展望未來，我們預期仍有進一步上行空間。我們第三季訂單簿目前已有 90% 完成承諾並完成定價。因此，我們預期實現的磷酸鹽價格將季增每噸 90 至 100 美元，實現的鉀肥價格將季增每噸 25 至 35 美元。

Beyond the third quarter, we are seeing buyer appetite for fourth quarter commitments as well. All of this implies higher earnings in the third quarter and very strong results in the fourth and into 2022. The dynamics fueling the agricultural markets point to a period of strength that we believe will extend well beyond 2021. Grain stocks remain limited and global corn and soybean demand is growing driven in part by surging Chinese demand and biofuels. As a result, agricultural commodity prices remain high, and the outlook is promising for continued strong farm income.

第三季之外，我們也看到買方對第四季承諾量的意願。這些都意味著第三季獲利將提高，而第四季以及延伸至 2022 年的結果將非常強勁。推動農業市場的動態顯示，我們相信這段強勢期將遠超過 2021 年。穀物庫存仍然有限，全球玉米與黃豆需求持續成長，部分原因是中國需求激增以及生質燃料帶動。因此，農產品價格維持高檔，農民收入可望持續強勁，前景令人鼓舞。

The world's farmers have solid incentive to maximize yields from every acre, and that is what drives higher fertilizer demand. Demand in the Americas is considerably stronger than we expected at the beginning of the year. Brazil is expected to once again set records for fertilizer shipments. Across the Americas, we saw a big recovery in 2020 and expected the demand growth to moderate this year. The opposite has happened. Demand for potash and phosphates is up substantially compared with last year, and nearly all of the fertilizer delivered this year has gone to the ground, which means channel inventories in most regions remain below historic norms.

全球農民有充分誘因將每一英畝的產量最大化，而這正是推動肥料需求上升的原因。美洲地區的需求明顯比我們年初預期更強。巴西預期將再次創下肥料出貨紀錄。在整個美洲，我們在 2020 年看到需求大幅復甦，並預期今年需求成長會趨緩；但結果恰恰相反。鉀肥與磷酸鹽的需求相較去年大幅增加，而且今年交付的肥料幾乎都已施用到田間，這表示多數地區的通路庫存仍低於歷史常態水準。

In North America, demand continues to be strong. Following the completion of our CVD petition, U.S. phosphate prices now trade at parity with global benchmarks. And the domestic market is benefiting from elevated imports from a more diverse pool of suppliers. This is reflective of a healthy market that's responding to the market signals.

在北美，需求仍然強勁。隨著我們反補貼（CVD）申請案完成，美國磷酸鹽價格目前與全球基準價格持平。此外，國內市場也受惠於來自更多元供應來源的進口量增加。這反映出一個健康的市場，正在對市場訊號做出回應。

In India, farmer demand remains very strong, but importer economics have negatively impacted available supply in the country because of the disconnect in government subsidies. As a result, it is difficult for the Indian farmer to get the phosphates they desire. It is clear that more work needs to be done to rectify the imbalance, but we continue to see the region absorbing fertilizer supply.

在印度，農民需求依然非常強勁，但由於政府補貼脫節，進口商的經濟性受到負面影響，導致該國可供應量下降。因此，印度農民很難取得他們想要的磷酸鹽。顯然仍需做更多工作來矯正這種失衡，但我們仍看到該地區持續吸收肥料供應。

Given how depleted Indian inventories are, we see India as a source of pent-up demand for the future. Southeast Asian fertilizer demand is benefiting from the strength in palm oil, and China is incenting its farmers to maximize yield.

鑑於印度庫存消耗殆盡，我們認為印度將成為未來被壓抑需求的來源。東南亞的肥料需求受惠於棕櫚油的強勢，而中國也在激勵其農民將產量最大化。

While the demand dynamics for potash and phosphates are similar, driven by the strong underlying agricultural markets, the supply outlook is slightly different for the 2 products. In phosphates, new supply is limited and any new greenfield supply additions are several years from completion. Recently, Russia requested producers prioritize domestic demand to stabilize in-country pricing. And while supply from Chinese phosphate exports during the second quarter was elevated to meet global demand, Chinese exports are expected to decline in the second half of the year as in-country seasonal demand increases. This was reinforced by news last week that China's National Development and Reform Commission has begun requesting the export of fertilizer stop to ensure adequate domestic supply.

雖然鉀肥與磷酸鹽的需求動態相似，皆由強勁的農業基本面所驅動，但兩項產品的供給展望略有不同。在磷酸鹽方面，新供給有限，任何新的綠地（greenfield）產能新增都還需要數年才能完成。近期，俄羅斯要求生產商優先滿足國內需求，以穩定國內價格。此外，雖然第二季中國磷酸鹽出口為了滿足全球需求而提高，但隨著國內季節性需求在下半年增加，預期中國出口將在下半年下降。上週也有消息指出，中國國家發展和改革委員會已開始要求停止出口肥料，以確保國內供應充足，進一步印證了這一點。

In potash, demand growth continues to exceed new supply from higher operating rates recently announced by producers. As a result, prices continue to rise. In fact, price increases have largely offset the financial impact of our early closure of K1 and K2 shafts at Esterhazy. We recently resumed production at Colonsay and now expect our net production loss to be approximately 700,000 tonnes for the year, down from our original 1 million-tonne estimate. This also brings the sales impact down to approximately 500,000 tonnes as we draw down available inventory.

在鉀肥方面，需求成長仍持續超過生產商近期宣布提高開工率所帶來的新供給。因此，價格持續上漲。事實上，價格上漲在很大程度上抵銷了我們在 Esterhazy 提前關閉 K1 與 K2 井筒所造成的財務影響。我們近期已在 Colonsay 恢復生產，現在預期我們今年的淨產量損失約為 70 萬噸，低於原先估計的 100 萬噸。隨著我們動用可用庫存，這也使銷售影響降至約 50 萬噸。

Our earnings are leading to significant free cash flow generation, which has allowed us to proceed with the early retirement of our $450 million in long-term debt later this month. We are currently evaluating additional actions for capital deployment.

我們的獲利帶來可觀的自由現金流，使我們得以在本月稍晚提前償還 4.5 億美元的長期債務。我們目前也正在評估其他資本配置行動。

Capital expenditures are expected to total $1.2 billion in '21. This includes accelerated K3 spending to speed up our ability to bring K3 to full production as well as approximately $75 million in additional high-returning opportunities within our businesses. Given the strong cash generation, we continue to evaluate opportunities that also allow us to further strengthen our balance sheet, grow the business and share with our investors. Overall, Mosaic continues to execute and perform very well within this robust fertilizer market, and we expect to continue building momentum from here.

預期 2021 年資本支出合計為 12 億美元。其中包括加速 K3 的支出，以加快我們將 K3 提升至滿產的能力，以及在各業務中約 7,500 萬美元的額外高報酬機會。鑑於強勁的現金創造能力，我們持續評估能進一步強化資產負債表、擴大業務並回饋投資人的機會。整體而言，美盛在這個強勁的肥料市場中持續良好執行並展現優異表現，我們預期將在此基礎上持續累積動能。

With that, we will move on to your questions.

接下來，我們進入各位的提問。

Joc, a number of analysts, including Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs, Ben Isaacson from Scotia and Rikin Patel from Exane BNP are asking about fertilizer affordability. Specifically, globally, are you seeing any demand destruction due to affordability? Are there any regions or areas you're watching?

Joc，多位分析師，包括高盛的 Adam Samuelson、豐業銀行（Scotia）的 Ben Isaacson，以及 Exane BNP 的 Rikin Patel，都在詢問肥料的可負擔性。具體而言，在全球範圍內，你們是否看到因可負擔性而造成的需求破壞（demand destruction）？是否有任何你們正在關注的地區或領域？

Thank you, folks. Now the way we look at this is actually it is the grain prices and higher grain demand that's driving the fertilizers. So from our perspective, it's demand for grains and oilseeds and the price that, that's creating that's driving fertilizer demand, which is, of course, driving fertilizer pricing. So we see the supply and demand balance the other way around, if you will.

謝謝各位。我們看待這件事的方式其實是：推動肥料的是穀物價格以及更高的穀物需求。因此，就我們的角度而言，是穀物與油籽的需求與價格在形成、並推動肥料需求，而這當然也在推動肥料定價。換句話說，我們看到的是供需平衡以相反的方向在運作。

Now we may see at some point the impact of high prices. Today, tight grain and oilseed markets are going to be tight for a while. They're not going to loosen in just one growing season. So this should last a while. And with global prices up, it seems that most growers have been comfortable with the prices we're seeing for fertilizer.

現在我們可能會在某個時間點看到高價格的影響。今天，穀物與油籽市場供應緊俏，而且還會緊俏一段時間。它們不會只在一個生長季就放鬆。因此這種情況應該會持續一陣子。隨著全球價格上漲，看起來大多數種植戶對我們目前看到的肥料價格都感到可以接受。

Now the one area of concern, we've talked about this, is India. And this is not an affordability issue for the farmer but an affordability issue for the importer because of the Indian subsidy system. But sooner or later, low Indian inventories will mean that they have to buy fertilizer.

目前唯一令人擔憂的領域，我們也談過，就是印度。這對農民而言不是負擔能力問題，而是對進口商而言的負擔能力問題，原因在於印度的補貼制度。但遲早，印度偏低的庫存將意味著他們必須購買肥料。

A handful of analysts, including Andrew Wong from RBC, John Roberts from UBS and Steve Byrne from Bank of America have asked about Mosaic's realized price progression. It appears that price realization has lagged in potash when comparing spot pricing trends to the third quarter guidance, but spot prices and guidance appear to be fairly in line in phosphates. Can you discuss the underlying dynamics and what that means for price realization into quarter 4?

包括 RBC 的 Andrew Wong、瑞銀的 John Roberts 以及美國銀行的 Steve Byrne 在內的少數分析師，詢問了 Mosaic 的已實現價格走勢。將現貨價格趨勢與第三季指引相比，鉀肥的價格實現似乎落後，但在磷酸鹽方面，現貨價格與指引看起來相當一致。你能談談背後的動態，以及這對第四季的價格實現意味著什麼嗎？

The lag between the potash prices we're seeing at the mine gate today and the actual international prices are driven by a couple of things. First of all, when we look at international shipments through Canpotex, Q1, we had delays due to port issues. In Q2, we're now seeing delays due to wildfires and rail impacts as we go through the British Columbia interior. So this is starting to push shipments back to their better-than-normal lag period that we're experiencing. Plus, you have to consider that these prices are the Asian prices, which are lagging as well from the Brazilian and North American prices.

我們今天在礦區出廠端看到的鉀肥價格與實際國際價格之間的落差，是由幾個因素所驅動。首先，當我們看透過 Canpotex 的國際出貨時，第一季因港口問題而延誤。第二季，隨著我們穿越卑詩省內陸地區，現在又因野火與鐵路影響而出現延誤。因此，這開始把出貨推回到我們所經歷的、比正常更長的落後期。此外，你還必須考慮這些價格是亞洲價格，而亞洲價格相對巴西與北美價格也同樣存在落後。

If we turn to North America, a lot of the tonnes that we're delivering now and will deliver through quarter 3 are tonnes that were sold in early May for August shipment to meet summer fill demand. Then of course, those were delayed further due to the K1/K2 closure, which means a lot of the May volume won't be priced or shipped until October. And so the pricing lag is higher than it would normally be. But I will emphasize that we are in our distribution business seeing and selling at the $600-plus price that we're talking about being the spot market.

如果轉向北美，我們現在交付、並將在第三季持續交付的許多噸數，是在 5 月初售出、預計 8 月出貨以滿足夏季補庫需求的貨量。當然，這些又因 K1/K2 關閉而進一步延後，意味著 5 月的許多量直到 10 月才會定價或出貨。因此，定價落後程度比正常情況更高。但我要強調的是，在我們的通路業務中，我們看到並以我們所說的現貨市場 600 美元以上的價格在銷售。

Joc, Steve Byrne, Rikin Patel and Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg are asking questions about the impact of increasing ammonia volumes delivered under the CF contract. What do those increases mean for spot purchases? And are there any volume-related discounts provided or premiums required under the contract?

Joc，來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne、Rikin Patel，以及 Berenberg 的 Adrien Tamagno 正在詢問：在 CF 合約下交付的氨氣（ammonia）量增加會帶來什麼影響？這些增加對現貨採購意味著什麼？合約中是否提供任何與量相關的折扣，或需要支付溢價？

Thank you. Historically, our ammonia tonnes have been split roughly evenly between produced spot and CF. With the increased CF supply in the second half, it means for the full year in the range of 75% of our total ammonia needs will be based on a natural gas price and be below today's market. This reinforces our competitive advantage in ammonia and the effectiveness of our hedging program to make sure that we have a number of supplies that buffer us against times like this.

謝謝。歷史上，我們的氨氣噸數大致平均分配在自產現貨與 CF 之間。隨著下半年 CF 供應增加，意味著以全年來看，我們總氨氣需求約 75% 將以天然氣價格為基礎，且低於今天的市場價格。這強化了我們在氨氣方面的競爭優勢，也凸顯我們避險計畫的有效性，確保我們擁有多元供應來源，能在像現在這樣的時期為我們提供緩衝。

In another raw material-related question, John Roberts and Ben Isaacson are asking about the potential for future sulfur supply disruptions through 2021 and into 2022. What risks do we see and how are we managing them?

在另一個與原料相關的問題中，John Roberts 與 Ben Isaacson 詢問：2021 年以及進入 2022 年後，未來硫磺供應中斷的可能性如何？我們看到哪些風險，又如何管理？

Thank you. Today, our position on sulfur is much better than it was a quarter ago. At this stage, you can see by the sulfur price, which just settled at about $195 per tonne versus $192 in the second quarter, that the refinery rates and the demand balance for sulfur has really equalized.

謝謝。今天，我們在硫磺方面的處境比一季前好得多。就目前階段，從硫磺價格可以看出——剛結算約每噸 195 美元，相較第二季的 192 美元——煉油廠開工率與硫磺供需平衡已經真正趨於均衡。

Now it's a little too early to forecast quarter 4, but what I can tell you is Gulf refinery operating rates have stabilized and gone to normal rates. We have really done a lot of work to get a good inventory of sulfur in our system, which we did not have coming out of quarter 1. And if you remember, the issue we ran into in quarter 1 was low operating rates in the refineries, some turnarounds in the refineries and then freezing weather that shut down a lot of the Gulf refineries. So the combination of the 3 meant a normally tight situation was exacerbated quite a bit. So at this stage, we see the risk as significantly lower.

現在要預測第四季還稍早，但我可以告訴你的是，墨西哥灣沿岸煉油廠的運轉率已經穩定並回到正常水準。我們確實做了大量工作，在我們的系統中建立良好的硫磺庫存，而這是我們在第一季結束時所沒有的。如果你還記得，我們在第一季遇到的問題是煉油廠運轉率偏低、部分煉油廠進行歲修，接著又遇到冰凍天氣，導致許多墨西哥灣沿岸煉油廠停擺。這三者的組合使得原本就偏緊的情況被大幅惡化。因此在目前階段，我們認為風險已顯著降低。

Joc, we had a number of analysts acknowledge accelerating cash flows. These analysts, including Seth Goldstein at Morningstar, Mark Connelly at Stephens and Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan are asking how we'll deal with it, how we will allocate it aside from debt reduction and small growth capital and looking for specific insight into how we are thinking about share repurchases and dividend increases.

Joc，我們有多位分析師提到現金流正在加速。這些分析師包括 Morningstar 的 Seth Goldstein、Stephens 的 Mark Connelly，以及摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas，他們詢問我們將如何處理這些現金流、除了減債與小規模成長資本支出之外將如何配置，並希望具體了解我們對庫藏股回購與股利提高的思考。

Thank you, gentlemen. Let me reiterate, our strategy is and always has been that we will balance our capital allocation between debt repayment and working on our balance sheet, projects that offer a great return to us through growth and then returning money to shareholders. In terms of the specifics, let me hand it over to Clint because I think he can give you a little more color on that.

謝謝，各位先生。讓我重申，我們的策略一直都是：在資本配置上取得平衡，包括償還債務並強化資產負債表、投資於能帶來優異回報的成長專案，以及把資金回饋給股東。至於細節，我把問題交給 Clint，因為我認為他可以提供更多說明。

Thanks, Joc. I think as we go further into the year, I guess, one thing to note is that as we generate free cash flow and cash build on the balance sheet, we're not going to let it just sit idle. I think we've got options. And whether that is additional debt reduction through some of the maturities that are coming due, we've got existing share repurchase authorizations. We can always take a fresh look at the dividend. We also have a program in place to review some really high returning internal projects, like our opportunity CapEx, relatively small dollars, but very high-returning projects that we'll continue to look to invest in.

謝謝，Joc。我想隨著我們進一步走到今年後段，有一點值得注意：當我們產生自由現金流、且資產負債表上的現金增加時，我們不會讓它只是閒置。我認為我們有多種選項。無論是透過一些即將到期的債務進一步減債，我們也有既有的股票回購授權；我們也可以隨時重新檢視股利。此外，我們也有一套計畫來審視一些內部高回報專案，例如我們的機會型資本支出（opportunity CapEx），金額相對不大，但回報非常高，我們會持續尋求投資。

But I think, again, I think as we look forward, I think we have a number of options. And again, I don't see us generating cash and letting it sit idle on the balance sheet. And I would expect that further into the second half of the year that we'll provide more clarity on what that allocation program is going to look like.

但我想再次強調，展望未來，我們有多種選項。同樣地，我不認為我們會產生現金卻讓它閒置在資產負債表上。我也預期在今年下半年更往後的時間，我們會就該配置計畫的樣貌提供更清楚的說明。

Andrew Wong and Adrien Tamagno are interested in more detail on our opportunity capital spending. Clint, can you elaborate on the new $75 million growth spending allocation. Would phosphate capacity expansion ever be on the agenda? And what can we expect to be allocated to the new soil health initiatives?

Andrew Wong 與 Adrien Tamagno 希望更深入了解我們的機會型資本支出。Clint，你能否進一步說明新增的 7,500 萬美元成長支出配置？磷酸鹽產能擴張是否曾經會列入議程？而新的土壤健康（soil health）倡議預計會配置多少資金？

Thanks, Laura. I think when we look at our opportunity, CapEx investments for this year, overall, I would say that it's about 1/3 in North America, about 2/3 in Brazil. I think there's more a focus in Brazil. But I would say that those investments are generally being made in a number of different areas, but I would include the following.

謝謝，Laura。我想當我們看今年的機會型資本支出投資時，整體而言，我會說大約 1/3 在北美、約 2/3 在巴西。我認為重點會更偏向巴西。但我也會說，這些投資通常分布在多個不同領域，我會包括以下幾項。

A number of these investments are around automation. We've spoken about some of the next-gen investments that we're making in our production assets, and that is ongoing. That's part of this program. Then another example is down in Brazil, where we're looking to increase gypsum sales, and we need to make some investments in infrastructure to be able to accommodate that. In potash, we're looking to increase some of the Aspire capacity. But again, as we look at these investments, they're all relatively modest investments, typically single-digit million dollar investments, but with very, very significant returns, some in the triple-digit type of return on an after-tax basis.

其中有不少投資與自動化相關。我們談過一些正在對生產資產進行的下一代投資，而這仍在持續進行，這也是此計畫的一部分。另一個例子是在巴西，我們希望提高石膏（gypsum）銷售，因此需要在基礎設施上做一些投資以便能夠承接。此外，在鉀肥方面，我們希望提升部分 Aspire 產能。但同樣地，當我們看這些投資時，它們都是相對適度的投資，通常是數百萬美元的個位數金額，但回報非常、非常可觀，有些在稅後基礎上可達三位數等級的報酬率。

From a phosphate capacity expansion standpoint, I would say that really the things that we've focused on and talked about is along the lines of potentially increasing MicroEssential capacity in the future. Demand for that product continues to increase. And to the extent that we need to expand capacity there, I can see that. Beyond that, I think our rock and concentrate capacities are in fairly good balance at this point otherwise.

從磷酸鹽產能擴張的角度來看，我會說我們真正聚焦並討論的重點，是未來可能提升 MicroEssential 的產能。該產品的需求持續增加。而在我們需要擴充那部分產能的程度上，我可以理解。除此之外，我認為目前我們的磷礦石與精礦產能大致上維持相當良好的平衡。

When we look at the new soil health initiatives, again, those are relatively modest investments. Those are typically expensed because we treat that really more along the lines of R&D. And so I would say, overall, those are relatively immaterial investments, not additive to CapEx. And again, I think that's supplementing our R&D into new products for the future.

當我們看新的土壤健康倡議時，同樣地，那些都是相對溫和的投資。通常會直接費用化，因為我們更把它視為研發（R&D）的一部分。因此我會說，整體而言，那些投資相對不重大，不會增加資本支出（CapEx）。而且我認為這是在補充我們針對未來新產品的研發。

Joc, we've also had a number of questions related to our potash assets, including questions from Adam Samuelson of Goldman and P.J. Juvekar of Citi. So this is really a three-part question. One, what was the driver behind changing your volume-impacted guidance? And how does this change total production expectations for 2022? Second, what are the ARO costs associated with the closure of K1 and K2? And lastly, what does the cost structure look like in 2022?

Joc，我們也收到不少與我們鉀肥資產相關的問題，包括來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson 以及花旗的 P.J. Juvekar 的提問。所以這其實是一個三段式問題。第一，調整你們受銷量影響的指引背後的驅動因素是什麼？這項變更如何影響 2022 年的總產量預期？第二，關於 K1 與 K2 關閉所涉及的 ARO 成本是多少？最後，2022 年的成本結構會是什麼樣子？

Thank you, Laura. Our volume production guidance was adjusted basically because of 2 things. First of all, the acceleration of our shaft at K3 and being able to move into production areas sooner in that K3 area, which will increase the contribution from that line in the fourth quarter. We also were able to optimize some of our turnarounds at the mills because they are being fully utilized.

謝謝你，Laura。我們的產量指引之所以調整，基本上是因為兩件事。第一，是我們在 K3 的豎井工程加速，使我們能更早進入 K3 區域的生產區，這將提高第四季該產線的貢獻。第二，我們也能在磨礦廠的檢修（turnarounds）上做一些最佳化，因為這些設備目前都被充分利用。

And then the second part is a successful restart of Colonsay, which really has come up very well, and we've been very pleased with the rate at which we've been able to get it into production, matter of fact, commissioned the mills just the other day. So we're fully ready to run there, Colonsay. And between the 2 of them, we've been able to accelerate our ability to produce tonnes at those 2 operations, which has mitigated some of the loss that we had from the early closure of K1 and K2.

第二個部分是 Colonsay 的成功重啟，進展非常順利，我們對能以這樣的速度讓它恢復投產感到非常滿意；事實上，就在前幾天我們才剛完成磨礦廠的試車投運（commissioned）。所以 Colonsay 已經完全準備好運轉。這兩項因素合在一起，使我們能加快在這兩個營運點的產量提升，從而抵消了因 K1 與 K2 提前關閉所造成的部分損失。

As far closure costs for K1 and K2, in the second quarter, they were $158 million, most of which was noncash write-offs. $110 million was fixed asset write-downs. $37 million was ARO adjustments. And then had MRO write-offs, $4 million was contractor severance.

至於 K1 與 K2 的關閉成本，在第二季為 1.58 億美元，其中大部分是非現金的沖銷。1.10 億美元是固定資產減記。3,700 萬美元是 ARO 調整。另外還有 MRO 沖銷，以及 400 萬美元的承包商遣散費。

In terms of the ARO itself, the $37 million brings the total up to about $120 million for ARO, of which $70 million to $100 million, let's say, will be in the closure of those 2 mineshafts. Of that, 40% or so will be spent this year, and the rest will be spent next year and the final closure of that.

就 ARO 本身而言，這 3,700 萬美元使 ARO 總額提高到約 1.2 億美元，其中約 7,000 萬到 1 億美元（可以這麼說）將用於關閉那兩座礦井豎井。當中約 40% 會在今年支出，其餘將在明年以及最終關閉時支出。

For the third part of the question, our cost structures, if we do the sum of the parts, our K3 mine at 6 million tonne operating capacity will be one of the lowest costs in the world. We said that in the $50 range already. Belle Plaine is also very low cost and very well positioned on the cost curve, and that's 3 million tonnes of our operating capacity. Colonsay costs are still expected to be in the $100 per tonne range as per our previous guidance. And we're looking at ways to reduce that amount.

至於問題的第三部分，我們的成本結構，如果把各部分加總來看，我們的 K3 礦在 600 萬噸的營運產能下，將會是全球成本最低的礦之一。我們之前已經說過大約在 50 美元的區間。Belle Plaine 的成本也非常低，在成本曲線上的位置也很好，這部分是我們 300 萬噸的營運產能。Colonsay 的成本仍預期如我們先前指引所述，約在每噸 100 美元的區間。我們也在尋找降低該成本的方法。

So if you kind of work it out from that, that 80% to 90% of our costs will be at that very first quartile. And then we'll make up the difference with slightly higher costs from Colonsay at $100 a tonne, assuming we actually need those tonnes to meet the market requirements. Let me emphasize that at these prices, Colonsay tonnes are still very profitable, and we would expect that to have a very good margin in today's environment.

所以如果你把它大致算一下，我們約 80% 到 90% 的成本會落在第一四分位（first quartile）的非常前段。然後我們會用 Colonsay 每噸 100 美元、稍高一些的成本來補足差額，前提是我們確實需要那些噸數來滿足市場需求。我想強調的是，在目前的價格水準下，Colonsay 的產量仍然非常有利可圖，我們預期在當前環境下會有非常好的利潤率。

Thank you, Joc. Operator, at this point, we'd like to open it up for follow-up questions from the phones.

謝謝你，Joc。接線員，接下來我們想開放電話線上的追問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

Was hoping to maybe ask about the Fertilizantes business a little bit. You called out in the script and the prepared remarks an increase in inflation there. It seems like you're moving from both phosphate conversion costs and rock mining costs away from your 2023 cost target. And I'm just trying to get a sense of kind of what the plan is to maybe bend the curve on inflation and get back down to those 2023 cost targets over the next 18 months or so.

我想或許可以問一下 Fertilizantes 業務。你在講稿與事先準備的發言中提到那邊通膨上升。看起來你們的磷酸鹽轉化成本與磷礦開採成本都在偏離你們 2023 年的成本目標。我只是想了解一下，你們的計畫是什麼，如何在未來大約 18 個月左右讓通膨曲線趨緩，並回到那些 2023 年的成本目標。

Thanks, Adam. Look, yes. And if you go back to our multipart analyst presentations, I think you'll remember, we did say that we would correct the expectations of these cost things based on inflation. And over time, our expectation is, if there's higher inflation in Brazil that, that will be offset by a weakening Brazilian reais. So I just want to highlight that we had accounted or we were not expecting to account for inflation, and this was a method of offsetting inflation. So you have to adjust those cost numbers based on that.

謝謝你，Adam。你說得沒錯。如果你回去看我們多部分的分析師簡報，你應該記得我們確實說過，會基於通膨來修正這些成本項目的預期。隨著時間推移，我們的預期是，如果巴西的通膨較高，將會被巴西雷亞爾走弱所抵消。我只是想強調，我們先前在計算時並未預期要納入通膨，而這是一種用來抵消通膨的方法。因此你必須據此調整那些成本數字。

But overall, we continue to drive very hard. I think you'll see in our results that we continue to drive very hard for those transformational benefits as we call them. And a big chunk of that is reducing our cost of mining. And in that, I just want to highlight that this quarter was exacerbated by lower rates caused by some downtime. And that does increase your cost because of the fixed cost absorption.

但整體而言，我們仍持續非常努力推動。我想你會在我們的業績中看到，我們持續非常努力地推動我們所稱的「轉型效益」。其中很大一部分是降低我們的採礦成本。就這點我也想強調，本季因部分停機導致產出率較低，使情況更為惡化。而這確實會提高你的成本，因為固定成本的吸收（fixed cost absorption）變差。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Connelly with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Mark Connelly。

There's a long-standing perception among investors that more operational hiccups than other producers. But you obviously can't control the supply of sulfur and stuff like that. But when you look at all the operating metrics internally and the changes you've made to process, has your Florida system become materially more reliable? And I'm sort of curious how you would answer that question on potash too.

投資人長期以來有一種看法，認為你們比其他生產商更常出現營運上的小狀況。但你們顯然無法控制硫磺供應之類的事情。不過當你們從內部檢視所有營運指標以及你們對流程所做的改變時，你們的佛羅里達系統是否已經在可靠性上有實質提升？我也很好奇你會如何回答鉀肥那邊的同樣問題。

Thanks, Mark. Well, I would say definitely, yes. We've spent a lot of time. And a lot of the area where our cost improvements have come, have come from better operational reliability, better maintenance control, better outcomes of turnarounds. There is a high level of unpredictability in any large system. And frankly, our system runs very close to its capacity.

謝謝你，Mark。我會說，絕對是的。我們投入了很多時間。而我們成本改善的很大一部分，來自更好的營運可靠性、更好的維修控管，以及檢修（turnarounds）更好的成果。任何大型系統都具有高度不可預測性。坦白說，我們的系統是在非常接近滿載的狀態下運行。

So in the case of the sulfur, with a very good spring ahead of us, a little sulfur hiccup impacted our tonnage. But I think if you look at it over time, you'll see that, really, we have run very close to our capacity and have made big improvements in that area. Likewise, in potash, I mean, if you look back where we were running the 3 potash mines continuously, you had a lot of flexibility, which we don't have anymore. So we do need those plants to run consistently all the time. And for the most part, we believe they do now. And I think those have been big improvements to how we can keep our costs at a much lower level.

以硫磺為例，在我們迎來一個非常好的春季之際，一點硫磺的小插曲就影響了我們的產量。但我認為如果你拉長時間來看，你會看到我們確實一直在非常接近產能上限的狀態下運行，並且在這方面做出了很大的改善。同樣地，在鉀肥方面，如果你回頭看我們過去三座鉀肥礦持續運轉的時期，你會有很大的彈性，而我們現在已經沒有那樣的彈性了。因此我們確實需要那些工廠始終如一、持續穩定地運轉。而就大多數情況而言，我們相信它們現在做到了。我認為這些都是重大改善，使我們能把成本維持在更低的水準。

Your next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗的 P.J. Juvekar。

A question on phosphates. As phosphate prices moved up, China may be opportunistically raised exports. And we've seen that in other fertilizers as well, in ammonia, not ammonia, but urea, Chinese exports went up. What is your confidence level that Chinese exports would decline in second half, which is what you said in your remarks?

關於磷酸鹽的一個問題。隨著磷酸鹽價格上漲，中國可能趁機提高出口。我們也在其他肥料上看到類似情況，在氨——不是氨，是尿素——中國的出口也增加了。你對於中國出口會在下半年下降（正如你在發言中所說）的信心程度如何？

Yes. Thanks, P.J. I'll talk a little bit about this, but I'm going to hand it to Jenny because I think she's got a pretty good idea on the world's supply and demand and some of the forces here. But let me say, the Chinese do need to get their domestic phosphate to their farmers for the growing season in the next quarter. And as such, internal demand is going to be high.

是的。謝謝你，P.J.。我先稍微談一下，但我會交給 Jenny，因為我認為她對全球供需以及其中一些力量有相當好的掌握。不過我先說，中國確實需要在下一季的生長季把國內的磷酸鹽供應給農民。因此，內需將會很高。

But 1 of 2 things basically has to happen, either the price has to go up internally in China or they will put restrictions on exports. Either way, our expectation is, from a supply and demand perspective, that demand is there internally in the country, and these exports should slow down. Jenny, do you want to talk a little bit about particularly some of their government interactions?

但基本上有兩件事之一必須發生：要嘛中國國內價格必須上漲，要嘛他們會對出口施加限制。無論哪一種，從供需角度來看，我們的預期是國內需求確實存在，因此這些出口應該會放緩。Jenny，你要不要特別談談他們政府方面的一些互動？

Sure, Joc. P.J., you are right. We have seen the Chinese exports of phosphates and probably urea as well have increased in the first half of the year driven by very strong international market. The demand was so strong and it's a pure economic-driven. As a result of it, the Chinese government has seen a growing concern over the supply availability for the domestic market as well as the rising prices for the domestic market as well.

當然，Joc。P.J.，你說得對。我們看到中國上半年磷酸鹽、可能還有尿素的出口，在非常強勁的國際市場帶動下有所增加。需求非常強，這完全是經濟驅動。結果，中國政府對國內市場的供應可得性，以及國內市場價格上漲，也日益感到擔憂。

So as a result of this concern, the NDRC, they call it the super ministry in China, the National Development and Reform Committee has required the major producers of nitrogen and phosphate to meet. Basically, the guidance of NDRC to the major producers were, you guys need to stop exports and you need to prioritize your supply to the domestic market and also stabilize the price. We know why they do it. They need to maximize the ag production in China. So that's their priority.

因此，基於這些擔憂，發改委（NDRC），也就是他們所稱的「超級部會」——國家發展和改革委員會——要求主要的氮肥與磷肥生產商開會。基本上，發改委給主要生產商的指導是：你們需要停止出口，優先保障國內市場供應，並且穩定價格。我們知道他們為什麼這麼做：他們需要最大化中國的農業產出，這是他們的優先事項。

So at this moment, NDRC's requests are kind of a soft regulation. The requests are mainly to the state-owned enterprises. How these major producers are going to comply and follow the guidance from NDRC, the government is closely watching it, and they're looking at whether the domestic supply has been improved and if the prices have been stabilized. And if the situation is not believed to be improved over the next period of time, we may see a very hard measurement to be taken by NDRC.

目前，發改委的要求比較像是「軟性」監管，主要針對國有企業。這些主要生產商會如何遵循發改委的指導，政府正在密切關注，並觀察國內供應是否改善、價格是否穩定。如果在接下來一段時間內情況被認為沒有改善，我們可能會看到發改委採取更「硬性」的措施。

The reason that we have that confidence, one is coming from the other industry, if you pay attention to the steel industry, which the Chinese government imposed export tax in May. And then that was not strong enough at the time. And yesterday, they hiked export tax again. So that's one of the measurements that NDRC has taken to the steel export. Whether they're going to do the same to phosphates and possibly to urea, it will really depending on how much export is coming up over the next 2 months. We foresee the significant slowdown were coming from September and Q4 because the export in July and August probably have been committed earlier before this request was sent by NDRC.

我們之所以有這樣的信心，其中一個原因來自其他產業：如果你關注鋼鐵業，中國政府在 5 月對出口課徵出口稅。當時那樣的力度還不夠，而昨天他們又再次上調出口稅。這就是發改委對鋼鐵出口採取的措施之一。他們是否會對磷酸鹽、以及可能對尿素採取同樣作法，將真正取決於未來兩個月出口量會有多少。我們預期顯著放緩會從 9 月與第四季開始，因為 7 月與 8 月的出口可能在發改委發出這項要求之前就已經較早承諾了。

Our next question is from John Roberts from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 John Roberts。

Could you talk a little bit about the Belarus potash sanctions and maybe compare and contrast that with the earlier U.S. sanctions on phosphates?

你能談談白俄羅斯鉀肥制裁，並且也許把它與先前美國對磷酸鹽的制裁做個比較嗎？

Yes. Thanks, John. Interestingly enough, I guess, the Belarus sanctions were, I'm going to call them relatively toothless. They didn't have very much bite to them in the basis that they didn't include what were most of the main grades of potash. I think they only affected about 20% of the industrial potash that Belarus might have sold. So other than slap on the wrist, it really wasn't much of a restriction to the Belarusians. And with food security concerns in the mix, I'm not surprised by that.

是的。謝謝你，John。有趣的是，我想白俄羅斯的制裁——我會稱之為相對「不痛不癢」。其嚇阻力不大，因為它並未涵蓋多數主要的鉀肥等級。我認為它只影響了白俄羅斯可能銷售的約 20% 工業用鉀肥。所以除了象徵性警告之外，對白俄羅斯人其實算不上什麼限制。而在糧食安全疑慮的背景下，我對此並不意外。

Compare that to the CVD, which was, I mean, the countervailing duty case was all about unfair subsidies and really taking advantage of those unfair subsidies to impact the market and particularly harm the U.S. producers. So I think very, very different sort of situations and drivers. But what I would say about the CVD, and I think I've said this in my opening remarks is, now with the CVD, what we're seeing is we're seeing a number of new countries and companies importing into the U.S. And we're seeing the market run at essentially parity to other major markets, which I think is what we expect. In the case of the Belarusian, I mean, it was simply a political statement to hopefully put pressure on Lukashenko to do something about some of their, well, some of their human rights issues.

相較之下，CVD——也就是反補貼稅案件——核心在於不公平補貼，以及利用這些不公平補貼來影響市場，特別是傷害美國生產商。所以我認為這是非常、非常不同的情境與驅動因素。不過我想說的是，關於 CVD，我在開場發言中也提過：現在有了 CVD，我們看到有不少新的國家與公司進口到美國。我們也看到市場基本上與其他主要市場維持同等水準（parity）運作，這正是我們所預期的。至於白俄羅斯的情況，那基本上只是政治表態，希望對盧卡申科施壓，讓他在某些——嗯——人權議題上有所作為。

Our next question is from Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

It's actually Luke Washer on for Steve. I wanted to ask about your Chinese or your thoughts on Chinese port inventories of potash. Where are they today from what you can tell relative to history? And when do you think China could start looking to renegotiate a potash contract?

其實我是代 Steve 提問的 Luke Washer。我想問你對中國港口鉀肥庫存的看法。就你所知，目前相對於歷史水準處於什麼位置？以及你認為中國何時可能開始尋求重新談判鉀肥合約？

Yes. Thank you, Luke. Again, I'm going to hand a little of this over to Jenny. But I can tell you right now that the potash inventories at port, and probably of country as well, are starting to get fairly depleted. And I think you're starting to be at a place where they'll have to dip into their national reserve if they're going to continue to supply the NPK producers and the internal market.

是的。謝謝你，Luke。同樣地，我會把其中一部分交給 Jenny。不過我現在可以告訴你，港口的鉀肥庫存——可能全國層面也是——正開始相當程度地被消耗。我認為你正接近一個點：如果他們要持續供應 NPK 生產商與國內市場，就必須動用國家儲備。

So from that perspective, this is getting pretty tight for China. And I expect that they will, not the producers because I don't think the producers are in a position of needing to ship those tonnes. But I think China will have to start looking at negotiating their next round of purchases sooner rather than later. Jenny, any comments on port inventories?

因此，從這個角度看，中國的情況正變得相當吃緊。我預期他們將會——不是生產商，因為我不認為生產商處於需要出貨那些噸數的狀態——但我認為中國將不得不更早而不是更晚地開始就下一輪採購進行談判。Jenny，對港口庫存有什麼補充嗎？

Sure, Joc. The specific port inventory as of today, we see it is below 2.3 million tonnes. This is 35% lower than the same time of last year. So if you recall, the national reserve itself is 1.5 million. So the available tonnes really is really minimal. So that's just to support Joc's earlier comment. We saw very strong demand domestically in China. Strong spring has drawn down the inventory. And also we believe the input in the second half will be largely slower down. So we foresee the buyers, the importers will have to come to the table for a negotiation of a new contract sooner than many would have expected.

當然，Joc。就今天的具體港口庫存而言，我們看到低於 230 萬噸，較去年同期低 35%。如果你記得，國家儲備本身是 150 萬噸，所以可用噸數其實非常有限。這也支持 Joc 先前的評論。我們看到中國國內需求非常強勁，強勢的春季消耗了庫存；同時我們也認為下半年的到貨（input）將大幅放緩。因此我們預期買方、進口商將不得不比許多人原先預期更早回到談判桌上，重新談一份新合約。

Just like to highlight that the Chinese contract is probably $100 lower than the Asian price. So that really makes it difficult for them to receive the product they need at those prices.

我也想強調，中國合約價可能比亞洲價格低約 100 美元。這使得他們很難在那樣的價格水準下收到所需的產品。

Our next question is from Adrien Tamagno with Berenberg.

我們的下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Adrien Tamagno。

It's a question on Brazil. So you mentioned low channel inventories across the globe. And I would like to ask you a bit more specifically if that's also the case in Brazil and your expectation for Q3 volumes in the country.

這是一個關於巴西的問題。你提到全球通路庫存偏低。我想更具體地問，巴西是否也是如此，以及你對該國第三季出貨量的預期。

Yes. Thank you, Adrien. Well, our belief is that, yes, in fact, the volumes are relatively low inventories in Brazil. Obviously, with the prices, what would show up on our books will be slightly higher than normal because of the price of the product. But yes, the prices or the inventory is lower than usual, although it is, of course, built up for expectations of a strong third quarter, where we do deliver most of our product.

是的。謝謝你，Adrien。我們的看法是：是的，巴西的庫存水準確實相對偏低。當然，因為價格因素，反映在我們帳上的金額會比正常略高，因為產品價格較高。但沒錯，庫存比平常低，儘管這當然也是為了對強勁第三季的預期而建立的，因為我們大部分的產品是在第三季交付。

So our expectation for the third quarter will be very strong in Brazil. What we expect to see there is with the drought conditions, planting may be a little later. So it might push the purchases back slightly, but there will be higher prices and pretty strong demand for fertilizer in this third quarter and probably heading into fourth quarter.

因此，我們對第三季在巴西的展望將非常強勁。我們預期在乾旱條件下，播種可能會稍微延後，因此可能會使採購時點略為往後推，但在第三季、並且很可能延續到第四季，肥料價格將更高、需求也相當強勁。

Our next question is from Michael Piken with Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken。

Just wanted to follow up a little bit more on Brazil and specifically looking at kind of the distribution business. And just trying to understand, you mentioned that some of those sales took place at $600 potash. When we think about kind of the timing of when your distribution business typically purchase those inputs, is there the potential that the margins may be a little bit higher than normal on the distribution side? And then also, I just wanted to understand on the production side, how much of a freight advantage you might have with some of your in-market phosphate production.

我想再追問一下巴西的情況，特別是分銷業務這一塊。想了解的是，您提到其中一些銷售是在每噸 600 美元的鉀肥價格下完成的。當我們思考你們的分銷業務通常在何時採購這些投入品時，分銷端的毛利是否有可能比正常水準略高？另外我也想了解，在生產端方面，你們在當地市場的磷酸鹽生產，可能具備多大的運費優勢？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Great couple of questions. The way we report the earnings in our distribution business, of course, is we're purchasing from Canpotex and in the market. So what you can expect there is us to have an ongoing position, if you will. And so in cases of a rising market like we see today, there's no question we will have a positioning game. And our product management team is very efficient at making sure that we understand the market so that we take the positions and can realize as great a margin as possible. And certainly, in this environment, we're able to execute on that and take advantage of that distribution margin.

是的。謝謝你，Michael。這是兩個很好的問題。我們在分銷業務中揭露獲利的方式，當然是我們向 Canpotex 以及市場採購。因此你可以預期我們會維持一個持續的部位（如果你願意這麼說）。所以在像今天這樣的上漲市場中，毫無疑問我們會有部位配置的操作。我們的產品管理團隊非常有效率，確保我們了解市場，從而建立部位並實現盡可能高的利潤率。而且在這樣的環境下，我們確實能夠執行並把握分銷利差。

The second part of your question, I mean, comes to an important piece of our whole investment thesis in Brazil, which is to compete in Brazil being in-country and having that transportation advantage is a great thing both from a cost perspective. And so if you look at our in-country production, it's very competitive on a cost basis. Also, our overall is competitive on a logistics basis because we can really take advantage of moving product more effectively than if we didn't have the assets we have.

你問題的第二部分，涉及我們在巴西整體投資論點中的一個重要環節：在巴西競爭時，能夠在地化、並擁有運輸上的優勢，從成本角度來看是非常有利的。因此如果你看我們在國內（當地）的產能，在成本基礎上非常具競爭力。同時，我們整體在物流方面也具競爭力，因為相較於沒有這些資產的情況，我們能更有效率地移動產品並充分利用這些優勢。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

（接線員指示）下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

Joc, can you talk about the liquidity in potash market. I appreciate your commentary earlier on the issues in Western Canada around the wildfires, the delay on ports and rail. Some of your competitors in potash have been saying that the benchmarks we're seeing report every week just really aren't real, not getting $600 in Brazil, not even getting $500. And then some of the Southeast Asian prices have been interesting in the last couple of weeks. Maybe it's based on 1 deal or 2 deals, you tell me, in Thailand or Vietnam. So I wanted to know like what is liquidity like right now in the potash markets for what you're selling versus normal time? Like are these benchmarks as liquid as usual?

Joc，你能談談鉀肥市場的流動性嗎？我很感謝你先前對加拿大西部野火、港口與鐵路延誤等問題的評論。你們一些鉀肥同業競爭者表示，我們每週看到的那些基準價格其實並不真實，在巴西拿不到 600 美元，甚至拿不到 500 美元。過去幾週東南亞的價格也很有意思，可能是基於 1、2 筆交易——你告訴我——在泰國或越南。所以我想知道，現在鉀肥市場的流動性如何？就你們所銷售的市場而言，相較於正常時期如何？這些基準價格的流動性是否如往常一樣？

Joel, thanks for the question. Let me start by saying, first of all, the liquidity question is very seasonal. We're not selling a lot in North America right now. We're sort of between -- I think we had a crew that was at the Southwest conference recently. And most of our North American customers are probably 70% to 75% supplied for the fall season. So in that sense, there's not a whole lot of activity except for delivering on previous contracts.

Joel，謝謝你的問題。我先說，首先，流動性這個問題很具季節性。我們目前在北美的銷售量不大，我們算是處於——我想我們最近有一個團隊參加了西南部的會議。我們大多數北美客戶在秋季用肥季節大概已經供應到 70% 到 75%。因此在這個意義上，除了履行先前合約的交付之外，市場活動並不多。

If you think about some of the other areas, there's liquidity in Indonesia, Malaysia and some of the Asian countries that would be sort of more normal. And then if you look at Brazil, again, we're sort of between seasons a little bit. It's been a bit slow. So I would say it hasn't been a particularly liquid market at this stage, but that is not atypical for this time of year.

如果你看其他地區，印尼、馬來西亞以及一些亞洲國家的流動性會比較接近正常水準。至於巴西，同樣地，我們也有點處於季節交替之間，近期一直偏慢。所以我會說，現階段市場並不是特別有流動性，但在一年中的這個時點，這並不罕見。

Our last question comes from the line of Rikin Patel from Exane BNP.

我們最後一個問題來自 Exane BNP 的 Rikin Patel。

Just one last one on potash demand. You have a shipment forecast of 69 million to 71.4 million tonnes for 2021. But just curious into 2022, could you size what you think demand could look like? And you guys flagged, obviously, the lack of available supply as sort of constraining demand to an extent at the moment. So when you get that sort of release potentially next year, what do you think demand could look like in 2022?

最後再問一個關於鉀肥需求的問題。你們對 2021 年的出貨預測是 6,900 萬到 7,140 萬噸。但我想了解 2022 年，你們認為需求可能會是什麼樣子？你們也提到，顯然目前可用供給不足在某種程度上限制了需求。因此當明年可能出現供給釋放時，你們認為 2022 年的需求會是什麼樣子？

Yes. Thanks, Rikin. Yes, I think that's actually quite relevant. I think supply has been a limiter to demand growth, if you will, in this year. We had some 6 million tonnes of growth last year, and we really expected it to moderate quite this year. So with this year growing as it has, I think the biggest limitation has just been getting supply.

是的。謝謝你，Rikin。是的，我認為這其實相當切題。我認為今年供給在某種程度上限制了需求成長。去年我們有大約 600 萬噸的成長，而我們原本預期今年會明顯放緩。但今年的成長如同目前所見，我認為最大的限制就是取得供給。

As we go into 2022, it's always hard to look into the future, but I would think we would be returning to more normal growth rates. One of the things to talk about this year, though, is I don't think we've built up about a bunch of channel inventory. So I think channel inventory stays low. 2022 will be normal demand growth, call it, 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes or in that 2%-plus range.

展望 2022 年，往未來看總是很難，但我認為我們會回到較正常的成長率。不過今年有一點值得談的是，我不認為我們累積了大量的通路庫存。因此我認為通路庫存仍會維持在低水位。2022 年將是正常的需求成長，約 100 萬到 150 萬噸，或是 2% 以上的區間。

And then what the question will be, will there be channel inventory build, in which case, which ultimately has to happen for this market to be more fluid, as per Joel's previous question. So if the channel inventory can build, we could see higher demand growth in 2022. So it's going to depend obviously on the ag markets, but we're looking pretty positive for 2022 opportunity for growth. Jenny, anything to add to that?

接下來的問題是，通路庫存是否會回補；最終這必須發生，市場才會更具流動性，正如 Joel 先前的問題所提到的。如果通路庫存能夠回補，我們可能會在 2022 年看到更高的需求成長。因此這顯然取決於農業市場，但我們對 2022 年的成長機會仍相當正面。Jenny，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think you got this covered. We believe with the ag commodity prices, not only corn, soybean, but also the palm oil prices for Malaysia, Indonesia and other crops, we believe the demand to potash next year will continue to grow very strongly. The supply is likely going to be a limitation factor.

沒有。我想你已經把重點都涵蓋了。我們認為在農產品價格方面，不僅是玉米與黃豆，還包括馬來西亞、印尼的棕櫚油價格以及其他作物，我們相信明年鉀肥需求將持續非常強勁地成長。供給很可能仍將是限制因素。

There are no further questions at this time. Now I turn the call back over to Joc for closing remarks.

目前沒有進一步的問題。現在我把電話交回給 Joc 作結語。

Well, I would like to thank everyone for joining us on this call. I will say, it has been a strong quarter for us. And as we look forward, we still see strength going forward. We continue to drive for improvements in our operating performance. The markets continue to be positive for that. And with that, we believe we are well positioned for continued performance as we go forward. So thank you for joining our call. Please have a safe day. Go get vaccinated. Take care.

好，我想感謝各位參加本次電話會議。我想說，這對我們而言是一個強勁的季度。展望未來，我們仍看到後續的強勢。我們持續推動營運表現的改善，市場環境也持續正向支持。因此我們相信，未來我們仍具備良好條件以延續表現。謝謝各位參與我們的電話會議。請注意安全。去接種疫苗。保重。

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。