美盛公司 (MOS) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Your host for today's call is Laura Gagnon, Vice President, Investor Relations of The Mosaic Company. Ms. Gagnon, you may begin.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2020 年第四季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）今天會議的主持人是美盛公司投資人關係副總裁 Laura Gagnon。Gagnon 女士，請開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full Year 2020 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat as well as open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing, will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝各位，歡迎參加我們 2020 年第四季及全年財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Joc O'Rourke 發表，接著進行爐邊談話以及開放式問答。資深副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及全球策略行銷副總裁 Jenny Wang 也將出席回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release furnished yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our fourth quarter press release, performance data, attached as exhibits to yesterday's Form 8-K filing also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

在本次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理階層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日提供的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們第四季新聞稿、績效資料，以及作為昨日 Form 8-K 申報附件之展示文件，亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc for opening comments. Joc?

現在我想把電話交給 Joc 進行開場致詞。Joc？

Thank you for joining us today for our fourth quarter earnings call. Before we get started, I would like to emphasize the key points from our quarterly earnings report. First, we are realizing the benefits of our extensive cost transformation work, and we are beginning to see the earnings leverage we have created. Second, agriculture and fertilizer markets around the globe are very strong. Phosphate prices are at 7-year highs and potash prices have risen substantially. We expect the global supply and demand balance to remain tight in 2021. And third, we delivered great results for 2020, and we expect significantly higher earnings this year.

感謝各位今天參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我想強調我們季度財報中的幾個重點。第一，我們正享受大規模成本轉型工作的效益，並開始看到我們所創造的獲利槓桿。第二，全球農業與肥料市場非常強勁。磷酸鹽價格創 7 年新高，鉀肥價格也大幅上漲。我們預期 2021 年全球供需平衡仍將維持緊俏。第三，我們在 2020 年交出優異成果，並預期今年獲利將顯著提高。

Now we'll get to your questions, Laura?

現在我們來回答各位的問題，Laura？

Joc, the CVD filing is a hot topic, and we've received a large number of questions about the case, status and outlook. Can you bring us up-to-date with the case in your views?

Joc，CVD 申請案是熱門話題，我們收到大量關於此案的問題，包括案件內容、目前狀態與展望。你能就你對此案的看法，為我們更新最新進度嗎？

Thanks, Laura. I'd be happy to. Last week, the Department of Commerce announced final duty rates in the CVD case, having adjusted them from the preliminary rates that we announced in November. The final rates are about 20% for OCP, 9% for PhosAgro and 47% for EuroChem. We really appreciate the work the Department of Commerce has done in this investigation and its efforts to enforce our trade laws. We're closely reviewing their findings to determine whether additional upward adjustments are required. Also last week, the International Trade Commission held its public full day hearing. The ITC is charged with determining whether the subject imports caused injury to the U.S. phosphate industry. We continue to believe that our injury case is compelling, especially given the undeniable surge in imports during the relevant period.

謝謝，Laura。我很樂意。上週，美國商務部在 CVD 案中公布最終稅率，並對我們在 11 月公布的初步稅率進行調整。最終稅率約為：OCP 20%、PhosAgro 9%、EuroChem 47%。我們非常感謝商務部在本次調查中的工作，以及其執行我國貿易法的努力。我們正仔細檢視其認定結果，以判斷是否需要進一步上調。另外，上週國際貿易委員會（ITC）舉行了公開的全天聽證會。ITC 的職責是判定相關進口是否對美國磷酸鹽產業造成損害。我們仍然相信我們的損害主張相當有力，尤其是在相關期間進口量無可否認地激增。

The price effects of those imports and the resulting harm to the U.S. industry, which manifests itself in plant curtailments and closures, job losses and reduction in market share, production capacity and revenue. We're thankful for the ITC's work on this case, and we look forward to its vote on or above March 11.

這些進口所造成的價格影響，以及對美國產業的損害，表現在工廠減產與關閉、工作流失，以及市占率、產能與營收的下降。我們感謝 ITC 在此案上的工作，並期待其於 3 月 11 日或之前進行表決。

In terms of the current and expected imports into the U.S., we've seen the expected trade flow shifts, such that the U.S. market continues to be well served with phosphates. Our main concern is that wherever the supply comes from, it needs to be fairly priced and not priced based on highly subsidized production that comes at the expense of a free and fair market.

就目前及預期進入美國的進口而言，我們已看到預期中的貿易流向轉移，因此美國市場仍持續獲得充足的磷酸鹽供應。我們主要的關切是：無論供應來源為何，都必須以公平價格銷售，而不應以高度補貼的生產為基礎來定價，因為那會犧牲自由且公平的市場。

Joc, we have a related question from John Roberts at UBS who asks, since the first quarter 2021 U.S. phosphate imports should be flat year-over-year, who has replaced Morocco and Russian imports?

Joc，我們有一個相關問題，來自 UBS 的 John Roberts。他問到：既然 2021 年第一季美國磷酸鹽進口量應該與去年同期持平，那麼是誰取代了摩洛哥與俄羅斯的進口？

Thank you, John. Importers that have increased their sales into the North American market include the Australians, the Jordanians, the Egyptians, the Saudis and the Mexicans. All of these have also been excluded from this market due to the subsidized imports. And so now we're seeing freer and fairer trade. I'd encourage you to look at our market update deck published on our website where Andy provides some historical context as well.

謝謝你，John。增加對北美市場銷售的進口商包括澳洲、約旦、埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯以及墨西哥。由於補貼性進口的影響，這些供應也曾被排擠出市場。因此我們現在看到的是更自由、更公平的貿易。我建議你參考我們網站上發布的市場更新簡報，Andy 也在其中提供了一些歷史背景。

Joc, we've had several questions related to our taxes, specifically Jonas Oxgaard at Bernstein asked, can you simplify what happened in the quarter? And how should we think about both the GAAP and cash taxes going forward? And Artem Vodyannikov from VTB asked, if you can provide details on the tax benefit related to Vale acquisitions, how the reserve was formed and why it was reversed in the fourth quarter?

Joc，我們收到幾個與稅務相關的問題。具體而言，Bernstein 的 Jonas Oxgaard 問：你能簡化說明本季發生了什麼嗎？以及未來我們應如何看待 GAAP 與現金稅負？另外，VTB 的 Artem Vodyannikov 問：你能提供與 Vale 收購案相關的稅務利益細節、該準備金如何形成，以及為何在第四季轉回嗎？

Thank you, Artem, and Jonas. I'm going to hand this straight over to Clint to give you a little bit of a background on some of the moves in our taxation in the quarter.

謝謝你，Artem 和 Jonas。我會把這題直接交給 Clint，請他就本季稅務變動的一些背景為各位說明。

Thanks, Joc. Maybe I'll start with the second question and then move back to Jonas' question afterwards. So related to the tax benefit associated with the Vale acquisitions, when we acquired the Brazil business in 2018, it came with certain tax assets. That we ended up having to put a valuation allowance against, given the historic profitability of that subsidiary, that just according to GAAP rules. What's now transpired is that, that -- the profitability of that subsidiary has improved to the point where under GAAP accounting, we can now remove that valuation allowance and affected our GAAP earnings for the year.

謝謝，Joc。我可能先從第二個問題開始，之後再回到 Jonas 的問題。關於與 Vale 收購案相關的稅務利益：我們在 2018 年收購巴西業務時，一併取得了某些遞延稅務資產。但依據該子公司過去的獲利狀況，按照 GAAP 規則，我們最終必須對其提列估值備抵（valuation allowance）。目前的情況是，該子公司的獲利能力已改善到在 GAAP 會計下我們可以移除該估值備抵，並因此影響我們本年度的 GAAP 盈利。

Now to Jonas' question around our effective tax rate for the year, we actually realized some foreign tax benefits in the fourth quarter that we had originally thought would be temporary in nature and reported on the balance sheet. But as we concluded our analysis, we got our opinions and finished our work, it became apparent that those foreign tax benefits were going to be permanent. And when that's the case, you need to take it through the income statement through P&L on the tax line. When we look at where our earnings and earnings mix came out for the year, which provided a lot -- quite a bit of volatility in our rate last year, all of that came out as expected, but as we again concluded our work on these foreign tax benefits and recognize that they were going to be eminent, we ended up needing to, again, run that through the tax line, and that's what brought our effective tax rate down to the level that we recorded.

接著回到 Jonas 關於本年度有效稅率的問題：我們在第四季實現了一些海外稅務利益，原先我們認為其性質為暫時性，並已在資產負債表中列示。但在完成分析、取得意見並結束相關工作後，我們發現這些海外稅務利益將是永久性的。若屬永久性，就必須透過損益表，在稅項科目反映。當我們檢視本年度的獲利及獲利組合時，這在去年使我們的稅率出現相當大的波動；整體而言，結果符合預期。但當我們再次完成對這些海外稅務利益的工作並確認其將成為永久性時，我們需要將其再次透過稅項入帳，這也使我們的有效稅率下降至我們所記錄的水準。

As we go forward into 2021, a couple of things to keep in mind. First, the foreign tax benefits that we recognized in 2020, we expect that to continue to benefit our rate in future years. The other thing to keep in mind is that the better our phosphate business does, the more income is generated in the United States, which is our lowest tax jurisdiction. So the better that business performs, the lower our rate should go.

展望 2021 年，有幾點需要留意。第一，我們在 2020 年認列的海外稅務利益，預期未來年度仍將持續對我們的稅率帶來正面影響。第二，需要注意的是：我們的磷酸鹽業務表現越好，在美國產生的所得就越多，而美國是我們稅負最低的稅務轄區。因此該業務表現越好，我們的有效稅率理應越低。

Joc, our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar from Citi, Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley, Mike Piken from Cleveland and Joel Jackson from BMO. They've all asked about our sales volume outlook for 2021. Specifically, can you help investors assess the implications of the strong demand, current production capabilities and our view of channel and producer inventories as we think about volumes for 2021 in phosphates, potash and Mosaic Fertilizantes? And how much of the fourth quarter volumes were pulled from 2021?

Joc，下一題來自 Citi 的 P.J. Juvekar、Morgan Stanley 的 Vincent Andrews、Cleveland 的 Mike Piken，以及 BMO 的 Joel Jackson。他們都詢問我們 2021 年的銷售量展望。具體而言，你能否協助投資人評估：在需求強勁、目前產能，以及我們對通路與生產商庫存的看法之下，2021 年磷酸鹽、鉀肥與 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的銷量意味著什麼？另外，第四季的銷量有多少是從 2021 年提前拉貨而來？

Thank you, folks. Soft commodity prices are at multiyear highs, and the expectation is that these strong ag economics will continue. So what that applies for us is continuing strong demand for fertilizers as farmers seek to maximize their production. Our quarter 4 shipments were definitely strong and they lowered our inventories even further, which means that we will be constrained by production capacity as we move into 2021. That said, our phosphate volumes are expected to include up to 150,000 tonnes from our joint venture, MWSPC, and we will bring to NOLA that as we work to meet the U.S. customer needs. As a result, we expect our quarter 1 shipments to be in line with historical performance as we work to meet what is pretty strong demand despite the strong volumes we saw in quarter 4.

謝謝各位。軟性商品價格處於多年高點，市場預期這種強勁的農業經濟將會延續。對我們而言，這意味著在農民力求最大化產量之際，肥料需求將持續強勁。我們第四季出貨確實很強，並進一步降低了我們的庫存，這表示進入 2021 年後我們將受到產能限制。即便如此，我們的磷酸鹽銷量預期將包含來自我們合資企業 MWSPC 的最多 150,000 公噸，我們也會將其運至 NOLA，以滿足美國客戶需求。因此，儘管第四季出貨量很強，我們仍預期第一季出貨將與歷史表現一致，同時努力滿足相當強勁的需求。

A few extra things to consider. In both phosphates and potash, we will maximize our production at operating facilities, but we don't expect to be able to build our own inventories prior to the North American spring season. We believe channel inventories across products and regions are lower than normal, which minimizes the potential for deferrals of fertilizer needed for upcoming seasons. We expect to keep more of our U.S. phosphate production here in the U.S. to meet those customer needs.

還有幾點需要額外考量。在磷酸鹽與鉀肥兩個業務上，我們將把現有營運設施的產量拉到最大，但我們預期在北美春耕季之前，無法先行建立自有庫存。我們認為各產品與各地區的通路庫存都低於正常水準，這降低了即將到來季節所需肥料被延後採購的可能性。我們預期會把更多美國磷酸鹽產量留在美國本土，以滿足客戶需求。

Joc, our next question comes from Artem Vodyannikov from VTB, Vincent Andrews and Ben Isaacson for Scotia, who've all asked questions related to asset optimization. Can you provide an update on the Colonsay mine and any thoughts on bringing idle capacity back online? Do you have any plans of expanding capacities or increasing operating rates in phosphate and potash amidst such strong pricing?

Joc，下一題來自 VTB 的 Artem Vodyannikov，以及 Scotia 的 Vincent Andrews 與 Ben Isaacson；他們都提出與資產最佳化相關的問題。你能否更新一下 Colonsay 礦場的狀況，以及對於讓閒置產能重新上線的想法？在價格如此強勁之際，你們是否有擴充產能或提高磷酸鹽與鉀肥開工率的計畫？

Thank you, again, folks. Look, today, we're running our assets at (inaudible) and we're working hard to meet all of our customer needs. In terms of increasing production, we're going to meet the needs of the customers with our production. So we have places where we can probably debottleneck over time. Now Colonsay remains idled, but we would consider bringing it back if the long-term economics and the demand was there to justify it. So again, we're not going to bring production on that isn't required, but we do have some latent capacity that we can use if market conditions demand it.

再次謝謝各位。你看，我們今天正以（聽不清）在運轉我們的資產，並且正努力滿足所有客戶需求。就增產而言，我們會用自身產量來滿足客戶需求。因此，我們有一些地方可能可以隨時間推進去除瓶頸。Colonsay 目前仍維持停產，但若長期經濟性與需求足以支撐，我們會考慮讓它復產。所以再說一次，我們不會把不需要的產量拉上來，但如果市場條件需要，我們確實有一些可動用的潛在產能。

Joc, Vincent and Artem also ask for some clarity on the incremental 400,000 tonnes in our fourth quarter volumes.

Joc，Vincent 和 Artem 也想更清楚了解我們第四季出貨量中新增的 40 萬噸。

Thank you, Vincent and Artem. 2 things are happening here. First, a large portion of these tonnes simply relate to a catch of sales through Canpotex to meet our portion of full year sales. And the remaining reflect reduction of our Canpotex inventory deferral. So basically, pretty simple stuff. Remember, these are lower-priced, lower-margin tonnes compared to other sales. And when you net out all of our nonnotable typical year-end noise in the quarter, the net impact to EBITDA was virtually 0.

謝謝你，Vincent 和 Artem。這裡有兩件事在發生。第一，其中很大一部分噸數只是透過 Canpotex 的銷售補進，以達成我們全年銷售份額。其餘部分則反映我們降低 Canpotex 庫存遞延。基本上就這麼簡單。請記得，這些噸數相較於其他銷售屬於較低價格、較低毛利的噸數。而當你把本季所有不具代表性的、典型年末雜訊扣除後，對 EBITDA 的淨影響幾乎為 0。

Moving on to the next question, Joc. A number of analysts, including Duffy Fischer from Barclays; Chris Parkinson from Crédit Suisse; Andrew Wong from RBC; and Steve Byrne from Bank of America have all asked about the China and Indian contracts. Canpotex and other producers have been publicly critical of the recent BPC contract settlement. Typically, in the past for potash contract settlements with China or India we've seen that when one producer settles at a certain price, other producers shortly follow at that same price. Can you talk about why that's the case? Why haven't other producers in the past held out for higher prices? And for this year, specifically, will the situation end up differently? Do you expect others to hold? And how do you think of the economics at this price?

接著下一題，Joc。多位分析師，包括 Barclays 的 Duffy Fischer、瑞信的 Chris Parkinson、RBC 的 Andrew Wong，以及美銀的 Steve Byrne，都詢問中國與印度合約。Canpotex 與其他生產商已公開批評近期 BPC 的合約結算。過去通常在與中國或印度的鉀肥合約結算中，當某一家生產商以某個價格結算後，其他生產商很快也會以相同價格跟進。你能談談為什麼會這樣嗎？為什麼過去其他生產商沒有堅持更高價格？而就今年而言，情況是否會不同？你預期其他人會撐住嗎？你如何看待在這個價格下的經濟性？

Thank you, folks. Look, I think the surprising outcome here is really centered around the Indian contract, where BPC was the first mover. And as you've heard from other suppliers, including Canpotex, settled at a price that was, what we believe, lower than what market fundamentals were pointing towards. From our perspective, the price doesn't represent the reality we're seeing or the tightness of the market and pricing and other jurisdictions highlights this. I can only speculate as to what motivated BPC to do that. But given the political uncertainty in Belarus over the last year, there may have been nonmarket drivers that played into it.

謝謝各位。你看，我認為這次令人意外的結果，主要集中在印度合約上，因為 BPC 是第一個採取行動的。而且如你從其他供應商（包括 Canpotex）所聽到的，他們以一個我們認為低於市場基本面所指向的價格完成結算。就我們的角度，這個價格並不反映我們所看到的現實，市場的緊俏程度以及其他司法管轄區的定價也凸顯了這點。我只能推測 BPC 這麼做的動機。但鑑於過去一年白俄羅斯的政治不確定性，可能有一些非市場因素介入其中。

In terms of Mosaic, given that we sell internationally through Canpotex, we're going to allow Canpotex to do what it was set out to do. And therefore, we won't be negotiating contracts on our own or on calls like this. But it is important to keep in mind that contracts involve, prices, volumes, grades and durations. Not to mention any number of other terms, which can impact producer economics and which we believe will come into play given how tight the market is. We would expect Canpotex to take a holistic view as it interacts with Chinese and Indian buyers.

就 Mosaic 而言，鑑於我們透過 Canpotex 進行國際銷售，我們會讓 Canpotex 去做它原本要做的事。因此，我們不會自行談判合約，也不會在這類電話會議上談判。不過，重要的是要記住，合約包含價格、數量、品級與期間，更不用說還有許多其他條款，這些都會影響生產商的經濟性；在市場如此緊俏的情況下，我們相信這些因素都會發揮作用。我們預期 Canpotex 在與中國與印度買方互動時，會採取整體性的觀點。

Joc, we've had a number of similar questions from Mike Piken, Seth Goldstein from Morningstar, Ben Isaacson and Mark Connelly from Stephens about Chinese phosphate production and exports. What is your expectation for exports for 2021? And how do they align with recoveries from COVID curtailments, potential demand destruction from high prices and the government's latest initiative to increase phosphate operating rates?

Joc，我們也收到一些類似問題，來自 Mike Piken、Morningstar 的 Seth Goldstein、Ben Isaacson，以及 Stephens 的 Mark Connelly，內容關於中國磷酸鹽產量與出口。你對 2021 年出口的預期是什麼？它們如何與 COVID 減產後的復甦、高價格可能造成的需求破壞，以及政府最新提高磷酸鹽開工率的倡議相互對應？

Thank you. What we saw last year with regard to Chinese exports is they fell by approximately 800,000 tonnes, down to 9.3 million total tonnes. From a capacity standpoint, we believe capacity was reduced by -- in 2020 by roughly 1 million tonnes year-over-year, both due to closures and product mix shifting. This was in line with our expectations, and we'd characterize that magnitude is significant. It is expected that in 2021, capacity is going to be stable, but at the same time, domestic demand is likely to increase once again. And our fairly conservative export forecast may be too high. The Chinese government has indicated the desire to increase phosphate operating rates. Our analysis already points to a relatively high operating rate in the Chinese effective capacity. So even if we were to assume a dramatic step higher in Chinese utilization of, say, 5 percentage points, that would increase export availability by no more than 1 million tonnes. And upside growth in domestic demand could easily absorb a portion of those tonnes.

謝謝。就中國出口而言，我們去年看到出口量約減少 80 萬噸，降至總計 930 萬噸。從產能角度，我們認為 2020 年有效產能年減約 100 萬噸，原因同時包括關停以及產品組合轉移。這符合我們的預期，我們會把這樣的幅度形容為相當顯著。預期 2021 年產能將維持穩定，但同時國內需求很可能再次增加。因此，我們相對保守的出口預測可能仍偏高。中國政府已表達希望提高磷酸鹽開工率。我們的分析已指出，中國有效產能的開工率相對偏高。所以即便我們假設中國利用率大幅再提高，例如提高 5 個百分點，出口可供量增加也不會超過 100 萬噸。而國內需求的上行成長很容易就能吸收其中一部分噸數。

Joc, Adam Samuelson and Joel Jackson are both asking about Mosaic Fertilizantes' outlook. Despite a quarter-over-quarter rise in selling prices, gross profit per tonne declined in Fertilizantes in the fourth quarter from the third quarter. Can you explain the key drivers of the decline in operating rate and increase in costs? And how we should think about gross margins progressing into 2021?

Joc，Adam Samuelson 與 Joel Jackson 都在詢問 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的展望。儘管銷售價格季比上升，Fertilizantes 第四季每噸毛利卻較第三季下滑。你能解釋開工率下降與成本上升的主要驅動因素嗎？以及我們應如何看待 2021 年毛利率的走勢？

Thanks, gentlemen. Look, historically, our quarter 3 margin per tonne is the highest of the year in Brazil, reflecting the seasonality of demand and the economy of scale that we see in that quarter. It's normal to see a decline from quarter 3 to quarter 4. This year, though, it's probably exacerbated by additional impact of delaying our turnarounds and the lower production volumes we saw in quarter 4, which negatively impact our fixed cost absorption. The movement of the Brazilian real from 5.6 at the beginning of the quarter to 5.1 at the end of the quarter also caused a noncash, noneconomic translational impact in the COGS, lowering gross margin by about $13 million. Looking ahead, we continue to make great progress towards our transformation goals, and we expect to see our margins continue to improve because of that over time.

謝謝各位先生。你看，歷史上我們在巴西的第三季每噸毛利是全年最高的，反映需求的季節性以及我們在該季看到的規模經濟。從第三季到第四季出現下滑是正常的。不過今年，這種下滑可能因為我們延後歲修（turnarounds）的額外影響，以及第四季較低的產量而被放大，這會對固定成本吸收造成負面影響。巴西雷亞爾在本季從期初的 5.6 升至期末的 5.1，也在銷貨成本（COGS）中造成一項非現金、非經濟性的換算影響，使毛利約減少 1,300 萬美元。展望未來，我們持續朝轉型目標取得很大進展，並預期因此我們的利潤率將隨時間持續改善。

Joc, we have more questions about Brazil from Steve Byrne and Chris Parkinson. Namely, given the sharp spike in inland Brazilian phosphate prices, can you remind investors of your inland market share and domestic production capabilities? And how much of the 10% volume gain by Fertilizantes in quarter 4 was overall market growth from acreage expansion and higher application rates in Brazil versus market share gains against imported products?

Joc，我們還有來自 Steve Byrne 與 Chris Parkinson 關於巴西的更多問題。也就是說，鑑於巴西內陸磷酸鹽價格大幅飆升，你能否提醒投資人你們在內陸市場的市占率與國內生產能力？另外，Fertilizantes 第四季 10% 的出貨量成長中，有多少來自巴西耕地面積擴張與施用率提高所帶動的整體市場成長，又有多少是相對於進口產品的市占提升？

Thank you. Our market share in Brazil in 2020 was roughly 18%. But remember, what is driving this? Domestic production and a vast distribution network that gives us a dominant market access position. Our production rates are 3.5 million tonnes of phosphate concentrates in Brazil and about 0.5 million tonnes of potash. Now regarding quarter 4 specifically, we think it was a combination of factors, but market share growth was definitely part of it.

謝謝。我們 2020 年在巴西的市占率約為 18%。但請記得，背後的驅動因素是什麼？是國內生產以及龐大的配銷網路，讓我們在市場可及性上具備主導地位。我們在巴西的生產率為 350 萬噸磷酸鹽精礦，以及約 50 萬噸鉀肥。至於第四季本身，我們認為是多重因素的組合，但市占成長確實是其中一部分。

Andrew Wong and Chris Parkinson are asking about capital allocation. A few years ago, Mosaic cut dividend payments during some tough years for potash and phosphate. Now that market conditions have improved and Vale's integration is mostly complete, and Esterhazy K3 is around the corner, what are your thoughts on capital return to shareholders? Are dividend increases or share buybacks in the future? And if current conditions persist, you will have cash flow beyond debt paydown needs, what will you do with it?

Andrew Wong 與 Chris Parkinson 正在詢問資本配置。幾年前，Mosaic 在鉀肥與磷酸鹽景氣低迷的艱難年份曾削減股利。如今市場狀況改善、Vale 的整合大致完成，且 Esterhazy K3 也即將到來，你們對回饋股東的資本回報有何看法？未來是否可能提高股利或進行庫藏股／股票回購？如果目前狀況持續，你們在滿足償債需求之外仍將有額外現金流，你們會如何運用？

Yes. Thank you. Our capital allocation priorities are really unchanged. We're targeting a balanced approach and a balanced allocation of capital to pay down debt over time, return capital to shareholders and invest in what we believe are high-return projects to grow our business and maximize value. We've talked about reducing debt by $1 billion, and that remains a priority. We're aiming to fortify our balance sheet for an entire cycle. Our growth capital spending on K3, as you mentioned, is winding down and highlights the types of return we're focused on when thinking about new investments. In terms of capital returns to shareholders, we are evaluating what is a sustainable return policy.

是的，謝謝。我們的資本配置優先順序基本上沒有改變。我們的目標是採取平衡的方法，並以平衡的方式配置資本：隨時間推進償還債務、回饋股東，以及投資於我們認為具高報酬的專案，以成長我們的業務並最大化價值。我們談過要減少10億美元的債務，而這仍然是優先事項。我們的目標是強化資產負債表，以因應完整的景氣循環。正如你提到的，我們在K3的成長資本支出正在收尾，這也凸顯了我們在思考新投資時所聚焦的報酬類型。至於回饋股東的資本回報，我們正在評估何種回報政策是可持續的。

Taking into account our earnings profile, our capital spending needs and especially as we continue to drive sustaining profit improvements through transformation and our spending on major projects winding down. So we'll be hosting a call on March 11 and we will, in that call, specifically address capital allocation in more depth. And I'd encourage you to listen. And Clint, would you want to add anything to that?

我們會把獲利結構、資本支出需求納入考量，尤其是在我們持續透過轉型推動可持續的獲利改善、且大型專案支出逐步收尾之際。因此，我們將在3月11日舉辦一場電話會議，並會在那場會議中更深入、具體地說明資本配置。我也鼓勵你收聽。Clint，你想補充什麼嗎？

No, I think that covers it, Joc.

沒有，我想這樣就涵蓋了，Joc。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joc, P.J. Juvekar asks, despite improved volumes in the second half of 2020, why was your operating cash flow weak in the fourth quarter of 2020?

Joc，P.J. Juvekar 問到：儘管2020年下半年出貨量改善，為什麼你們2020年第四季的營運現金流仍然偏弱？

Thanks, P.J. If I'm going to sum it up, I think the biggest thing is working capital swings. But I'm going to let Clint just give you a little bit of detail on that. Clint?

謝謝你，P.J. 如果要我總結，我認為最大的因素是營運資金的波動。不過我先請Clint為你補充一些細節。Clint？

Yes, thanks Joc and thanks, P.J. I think as we look at last year, our working capital was a source of about $80 million in cash as we liquidated our inventories during some of the idling of our facilities. This year, working capital was use of about $140 million in cash primarily because of an elevated level of receivables associated with higher sales.

好的，謝謝Joc，也謝謝你，P.J. 回顧去年，因為在部分設施停工期間我們去化了庫存，營運資金為現金帶來約8,000萬美元的來源。今年則相反，營運資金約耗用1.4億美元的現金，主要是因為銷售增加帶來應收帳款水位偏高。

Joc, Jonas Oxgaard and Ben Isaacson are both asking about phosphate pricing outlook. The U.S. phosphate price is well above global prices, which clearly isn't sustainable. Do you have a perspective on where they will both settle out and how long it will take? And what do we need to see in advance of prices moderating?

Joc，Jonas Oxgaard 和 Ben Isaacson 都在問磷酸鹽價格展望。美國磷酸鹽價格遠高於全球價格，顯然不可持續。你們對兩者最終會落在什麼水準、以及需要多久時間收斂，有什麼看法？另外，在價格開始回落之前，我們需要先看到什麼訊號？

Thanks, Ben. Thanks, Jonas. Look, on the U.S. specifically, as we've said before, we do expect the trade flows are going to adjust and find a new normal after the final determination of the CVD petition next month. Now U.S. and international prices will have to be basically at parity adjusted for things like freight differentials. So in other words, if the U.S. prices are high, it will bring in new imports. And if U.S. prices are more parity with the markets, maybe people will be less inclined to imports.

謝謝你，Ben。謝謝你，Jonas。就美國而言，正如我們之前所說，我們確實預期在下個月CVD（反補貼稅）申請案作出最終裁定後，貿易流向將會調整並找到新的常態。屆時，美國與國際價格基本上必須達到平價，並針對運費差異等因素進行調整。換句話說，如果美國價格偏高，就會吸引新的進口；如果美國價格與市場更接近平價，進口意願可能就會降低。

So prices will take care of it. Trade will work as trade is supposed to work. And we expect that, that convergence will take place somewhere in 2021. More generally on global pricing, markets are efficient at finding equilibrium. It appears that demand is on very solid footing, given the recent commodity -- ag commodity prices, but a few seasons of above trend yields could calm those markets and slow demand growth. And we can never forget the potential impact of weather on both yields and our ability to apply fertilizers. Now we are expecting current prices to modestly lower demand in India given the current subsidy scheme.

因此價格會自行調節。貿易會按照其應有的方式運作。我們預期這種收斂將在2021年的某個時間點發生。更廣泛地看全球定價，市場通常能有效找到均衡。從近期大宗商品——農產品價格來看，需求似乎有非常穩固的支撐；但若連續幾季的單產高於趨勢，可能會讓市場降溫並放緩需求成長。我們也不能忽視天氣對單產以及我們施用肥料能力的潛在影響。另外，考量目前的補貼機制，我們預期現行價格會使印度需求小幅下降。

Adam Samuelson asks, your guidance calls for the first quarter phosphate price to rise $40 to $50 per tonne quarter-over-quarter would mean average realized prices would have risen less than half of the increase in benchmark prices over the past 9 months. What explains this spread and if current benchmark prices hold, should we expect a more sizable quarter-over-quarter increase in realized pricing for the second quarter?

Adam Samuelson 問到：你們的指引顯示第一季磷酸鹽價格將季增每噸40到50美元，這意味著平均實現價格的上升幅度不到過去9個月基準價格漲幅的一半。這個差距如何解釋？如果目前基準價格維持不變，第二季的實現價格是否可望出現更大幅度的季增？

Thank you, Adam. Look, the first thing to keep in mind is that some of the recent New Orleans pricing reported at the high end of the range was published in the trade publications. And there were very little volumes actually attached to them. So excluding those data points, the delta is actually quite a bit smaller. We have worked hard to meet our customer needs as well. And so in this rapidly moving market, this means we've committed to sales, in some cases, ahead of our production. This would push the lag between market prices and realized prices higher within our ranges of, let's call it, 45 to 60 days. But given the current price environment, you are absolutely right. If benchmark pricing holds, you will see further price increases realized in the second quarter.

謝謝你，Adam。首先要記住的是，近期在貿易刊物上報導的新奧爾良價格中，有一些落在區間高端的報價，但實際上附帶的成交量非常少。因此，若排除那些資料點，差距其實小得多。我們也努力滿足客戶需求。因此在這個快速變動的市場中，這代表我們在某些情況下會在產量尚未完全到位前就先承諾銷售。這會使市場價格與實現價格之間的落後期，在我們所說大約45到60天的範圍內偏高。不過在目前的價格環境下，你的判斷完全正確：如果基準價格維持，你將會在第二季看到更多的價格上調反映在實現價格上。

Joc, our last fireside question comes from P.J. Juvekar. He asks, with your phosphate mining cost of $37 per tonne and conversion cost of $62 per tonne, where do you fall on the global cost curve? And just to clarify, is this conversion costs all-in including sulfur?

Joc，我們最後一個爐邊談話問題來自P.J. Juvekar。他問：以你們磷酸鹽採礦成本每噸37美元、轉換成本每噸62美元來看，你們在全球成本曲線上處於什麼位置？另外確認一下：這個轉換成本是否為全包（all-in），包含硫磺在內？

Yes. Thank you, P.J. We believe in our third-party sources such as CRU really reflect this, that we are solidly within the second quartile on a cash cost and production basis. But as you know, we continue to strive to push ourselves lower on the curve. Now conversion costs, obviously, don't include raw materials of sulfur or ammonia. So what I'd lead you to is we published a modeling deck in February 2020, where we are -- and we're in the process of updating that. The sensitivities have been updated in our recent earnings release. This deck also describes the impact of inputs on our production. And so you can follow-up there with Laura or Paul for additional details. Thank you. That concludes our fireside chat part of this call. We'll now open it up to further questions. Operator, can you open it up to the audience.

是的，謝謝你，P.J. 我們相信第三方來源（例如CRU）也清楚反映：以現金成本與生產基礎來看，我們穩居第二四分位。但如你所知，我們仍持續努力讓自己在成本曲線上再往下移。至於轉換成本，顯然不包含硫磺或氨等原料成本。我想請你參考我們在2020年2月發布的一份建模簡報——我們正在更新中。我們最近的財報新聞稿已更新了敏感度分析。該簡報也說明投入品對我們生產的影響。你也可以再與Laura或Paul跟進以取得更多細節。謝謝。以上結束本次電話會議的爐邊談話部分。接下來我們將開放更多提問。接線生，請開放給聽眾提問。

(Operator Instructions) We have our first question come from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

（接線生指示）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Steve Byrne。

Yes. Would like to ask a little bit about your understanding of what's going on in China right now. It appears that the government there is changing course on its previous plans to hold fertilizer use constant. Is that your understanding? And if so, do you see a potential change in application rates or consumption of fertilizer in China if those limits were removed and government wanted to drive crop production up to reduce the level of imports?

是的。我想請教一下你們對目前中國情況的理解。看起來中國政府正在改變先前「將肥料使用量維持不變」的計畫方向。這是否符合你們的理解？如果是的話，若這些限制被取消、且政府希望提高作物產量以降低進口水準，你們是否看到中國的施用率或肥料消費可能出現變化？

Sorry. Thank you, Steve. Let me just make a couple of comments. Yes. In fact, the federal government in China has said they will loosen their fertilizer restrictions. And they've also said they want to increase the rate of fertilizer production. And obviously, those are to help their own food security. Let me ask Jenny Wang, if she can give a little bit of details there.

抱歉。謝謝你，Steve。我先簡單說幾點。是的，事實上，中國中央政府已表示將放寬肥料限制，也表示希望提高肥料生產的增速。顯然這些措施是為了提升其糧食安全。我請Jenny Wang來補充一些細節。

Sure. Thanks, Joc. Thanks, Steve. I think the policy that you quoted was of 0 fertilizer growth policy. Goal set actually 5 years ago and with a very specific time frame. And by end of 2020, the government has declared the goals have been achieved. So there's no new policies came out in 2021. Instead, the government basically shifted their focus to ensure production -- crop production to meet the domestic demand and replacing part of the import as they attempted to. In terms of the fertilizer demand implication, based on the academics recommendation, also the recommendation from Ministry of Agriculture, there's a very clear indication potash should be interest in terms of the application in China, along with some of the secondary nutrients and the micronutrient. In terms of the indication to phosphate, there was a very clear indication that the farmers need to manage their application to phosphate. And we've seen phosphate demand reduced over the last 5 years.

好的，當然。謝謝你，Joc。謝謝你，Steve。我想你提到的政策是「肥料零成長」政策。這個目標其實是5年前制定的，而且有非常明確的時間範圍。到2020年底，政府已宣布目標達成。因此2021年並沒有推出新的政策。相反地，政府基本上把重點轉向確保作物生產——以滿足國內需求，並在其嘗試下替代部分進口。就肥料需求的影響而言，根據學界建議以及農業部的建議，有非常明確的訊號：在中國，鉀肥的施用應該會更受重視，同時也包括一些次要養分與微量元素。至於磷肥，則有非常明確的訊號指出農民需要管理其磷肥施用。我們也看到過去5年磷肥需求下降。

However, that rebounded in 2020. We foresee this is going to continue in 2021 onwards. Basically, the farmers are going to apply phosphate in more appropriate way. Nitrogen is a different story. It's a very clear indication to reduce the supply. Back to the supply situation, China, as a country, they are self-sufficient for the production of phosphate and nitrogen. Thus, we have not seen policy support to -- from the government to encourage more capacity to be built in these 2 new trends. Potash, China needs to rely on import and they have limited reserve or hard to explore reserve. So we believe, as a country, they still need to continue to import potash as they grow the demand and also to support their agriculture production.

不過，2020年出現反彈。我們預期這種情況將在2021年及之後持續。基本上，農民會以更適當的方式施用磷肥。氮肥則是另一個故事：有非常明確的訊號要降低供給。回到供給面，中國作為一個國家，在磷肥與氮肥的生產上是自給自足的。因此，我們沒有看到政府在這兩個新趨勢上提供政策支持來鼓勵新增更多產能。鉀肥方面，中國需要依賴進口，且其儲量有限或難以開採。因此我們相信，作為一個國家，隨著需求成長並為其農業生產提供支持，中國仍需要持續進口鉀肥。

We have our next question come from the line of Chris Parkinson from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Chris Parkinson。

Great. So I guess let's stick with the China theme. Taking a step back from all the debates around export flows, near-term price action, et cetera, et cetera, the fact is China is still the marginal cost exporter to the tune of plus or minus 9 million tonnes across the primary products. There has been a distinct inflationary and steepening of the global cost curve, which spans pretty much across all components of the production costs due to safety, environmental and H3 sulfur rock, especially the Bay, et cetera. Can you just give us your own update on your current calculation of Chinese FOB rates so at port and how you believe this may compare to your outlook for both '22 and '23? So just really trying to get into the structural components of what we're seeing in the phosphate market.

很好。我想我們就延續中國這個主題。先從更宏觀的角度來看，撇開所有關於出口流向、短期價格走勢等等的爭論不談，事實是，中國仍是主要產品中邊際成本的出口方，規模約在正負 900 萬噸之間。由於安全、環保以及 H3 硫磺礦石（尤其是海灣地區等）等因素，全球成本曲線在幾乎所有生產成本構成上都出現了明顯的通膨與陡峭化。你們能否更新一下你們目前對中國 FOB 報價（港口離岸價）的計算，以及你們認為這與你們對 2022 年與 2023 年的展望相比會如何？我主要是想更深入了解我們在磷酸鹽市場看到的結構性組成。

Thanks, Chris. If I understand the question on the global cost curve and where China basically sits on it from their -- the position in cost curve, I think you're right. There's no question the Chinese represent -- or some of the nonintegrated producers particularly represent the top end of that cost curve. And obviously, those costs have been going up. Jenny, do you want to talk a little bit about where we sit on those cost curves or where they sit on those cost curves today?

謝謝，Chris。如果我理解你的問題是關於全球成本曲線以及中國基本上在其中的位置——也就是他們在成本曲線上的位置——我認為你說得對。毫無疑問，中國（或特別是一些非一體化的生產商）代表了成本曲線的高端。而且顯然，這些成本一直在上升。Jenny，你要不要談談我們在這些成本曲線上的位置，或他們今天在這些成本曲線上的位置？

Sure. So with the latest phosphate price (inaudible) globally, clearly, the margin expansion has occurred across the whole cost curve for all producers. Specifically for the Chinese producers, they are facing the raw material price increases, like you mentioned, sulfur, and also facing the increases of natural gas related to ammonia prices as well. The foreign exchange rate depreciation of Chinese RMB has also added cost to the FOB prices. So at this time, we believe the breakeven FOB Chinese DAP price is about $400 per metric ton.

當然。隨著最新的全球磷酸鹽價格（聽不清）變動，很明顯，整條成本曲線上所有生產商的利潤率都出現了擴張。就中國生產商而言，他們正面臨你提到的原材料價格上漲，例如硫磺，同時也面臨與氨價格相關的天然氣成本上升。人民幣匯率貶值也進一步推高了 FOB 價格的成本。因此在目前，我們認為中國 DAP 的 FOB 損益兩平價格約為每公噸 400 美元。

And Chris, let me just add to that as well. I mean the limit to Chinese export may well be structural as well as price because I think the -- the very top end producers will have costs higher than that, but also a lot will be redirected to -- or some of that will be redirected to the domestic market. So it's not quite as simple as a breakeven price.

Chris，我也補充一下。中國出口的限制很可能既是結構性的，也是價格性的。因為我認為——成本曲線最頂端的生產商成本會高於那個水準，而且也會有相當一部分被轉向——或其中一些會被轉向國內市場。所以事情並不只是損益兩平價格那麼簡單。

We have our next question come from the line of Jeffrey Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeffrey Zekauskas。

Two questions. What's the relationship between the deliberations of the Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission? And what I mean by that is, are some of the conclusions of the Department of Commerce taken as premises for the decisions that the ITC will make? Or is none of their analysis taken as a premise? And secondly, your equity loss really dropped in the fourth quarter. Do you expect your equity income to be positive in 2021?

兩個問題。商務部（Department of Commerce）與國際貿易委員會（International Trade Commission）的審議之間是什麼關係？我的意思是，商務部的一些結論是否會被當作 ITC 做決策的前提？還是他們的分析完全不會被當作前提？第二，你們第四季的權益損失大幅下降。你們預期 2021 年的權益收益會轉為正值嗎？

Sorry. Yes, Jeff, thank you. Let me take that in 2 pieces, obviously. First of all, in terms of the Department of Commerce and the ITC, they are independent and their determination is meant to be independent. So the DoC decides the level of subsidization and the ITC decides whether or not that the presence of those imports has caused harm to the U.S. industry. So technically, I guess they're not related, but I suppose there's got to be some element of relationship that says, well, if you have subsidized material coming in and it harms you, that there's a problem. So technically though, I don't believe they're related directly. In terms of the equity loss, most of that is Ma'aden and I think we've talked about before where Ma'aden is delayed by 1 quarter. So we report our equity earnings or losses from Ma'aden a quarter in arrears. And so if you look at the global price of phosphates today, I would expect certainly a much lower equity loss or for that to turn to a gain at some point. But again, that would be my expectation.

抱歉。是的，Jeff，謝謝。我把它分成兩部分來回答。首先，就商務部與 ITC 而言，它們是獨立的，其裁定也應該是獨立的。因此，商務部決定補貼程度，而 ITC 則決定這些進口的存在是否對美國產業造成傷害。所以嚴格來說，我想它們並沒有關聯，但我想多少會有某種關係：如果有受補貼的產品進口並且對你造成傷害，那就表示有問題。技術上來說，不過，我不認為它們是直接相關的。至於權益損失，主要來自 Ma’aden，而且我們之前談過，Ma’aden 的認列會延後一季。因此我們對 Ma’aden 的權益收益或損失是以落後一季的方式報告。若你看目前全球磷酸鹽價格，我確實預期權益損失會顯著降低，或在某個時間點轉為收益。但這只是我的預期。

We have our next question come from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson。

Thinking about phosphate, you gave the comments on pricing, certainly for the first quarter and point on kind of lagging the benchmark pricing is well taken. Can you talk about kind of the cost side? I mean you should have pretty good line of sight to how the ammonia and sulfur input cost moves kind of would impact the first quarter kind of cash margin. And help us think about how you'd frame the first half or even 2021, if you could just from an ammonia, sulfur kind of the movement on the input cost side so we can be thoughtful about calibrating to benchmark pricing.

談到磷酸鹽，你們對第一季的定價做了評論，也提到相對基準價格存在某種落後，這點很有道理。能否談談成本端？我的意思是，你們應該能相當清楚地掌握氨與硫磺投入成本的變動會如何影響第一季的現金利潤率。也請協助我們思考，如果可以的話，從氨、硫磺等投入成本變動的角度，該如何看待上半年甚至 2021 年，讓我們在校準基準價格時能更周全。

Yes. Thank you, Adam. Certainly, as you say, there is a lag, and we've talked about it. In terms of lag in sulfur, there's also a lag for both sulfur and ammonia. What I would point you to there, I guess, is just the stoichiometric requirement. Our need for ammonia represents about 0.21 tonnes per tonne of DAP produced. Our use of sulfur represents about 0.4 tonnes of sulfur for every tonne of DAP produced. So as you can see what that means, if sulfur moves from the $60 to the $90 some that it's at today, a $30 increase in sulfur is going to add something like a $12 increase to our overall price. So in sulfur, you should be able to take fairly much the Gulf price or our quarterly price and work that in. In terms of ammonia, again, same thing, except that, obviously, we produce 1/3 of our ammonia. So that is at normal cost. 1/3 of our ammonia is -- 1/3 or so of our ammonia is produced by CF on a long-term contract. And then we only buy about 1/4 of our -- 1/4 to 1/3 of our ammonia on spot. So on that one, it's much more dampened, if you will.

是的，謝謝你，Adam。正如你所說，確實存在落後，我們也談過。就硫磺而言也有落後，硫磺與氨兩者都有落後。我想我會請你關注的是化學計量需求（stoichiometric requirement）。我們對氨的需求約為每生產 1 噸 DAP 需要 0.21 噸氨。我們對硫磺的使用量約為每生產 1 噸 DAP 需要 0.4 噸硫磺。所以你可以看到這代表什麼：如果硫磺從 60 美元漲到今天大約 90 美元，硫磺上漲 30 美元將使我們的整體成本增加約 12 美元。因此在硫磺方面，你基本上可以用墨西哥灣價格或我們的季度價格把它帶入計算。至於氨，也是同樣的概念，只是很明顯，我們自產約 1/3 的氨，所以那部分是正常成本。另有約 1/3 的氨——大約 1/3——是由 CF 依長期合約供應。然後我們只有大約 1/4——約 1/4 到 1/3——的氨是在現貨市場採購。所以在氨這一塊，影響會更被平滑／緩和一些。

We have our next question come from the line of Jonas Oxgaard from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Jonas Oxgaard。

I want to ask about the deep freeze. If it's had any effect on your operations or logistics at the river? And then sort of as a follow-up on that, does a deep freeze limit availability of potash in Midwest?

我想問一下這次嚴寒冰凍是否對你們在河道的營運或物流造成任何影響？接著作為延伸問題，嚴寒冰凍是否會限制中西部地區的鉀肥供應？

Yes. Okay. Well, let me start with phosphates. Yes, we've actually had some problems in our Faustina plant with freezing. Louisiana isn't a place that freezes very often. So we actually probably will have a couple of days shutdown of that plant in different parts of the plant. So it's definitely going to have an impact on that. The other area, interestingly enough is moving ships and unloading and loading sulfur in the Gulf of Mexico and around Galveston and different parts of the river are definitely -- are definitely being impacted. But again, we kind of look at this as being just normal course of business. These things happen. No different than when you have to slow down for hurricane or anything else. So we're well prepared to deal with weather events. In terms of potash, I guess the good news there is we deal with this every year in Canada with cold weather. And so the railways and everything else, the supply chains are well equipped to deal with this kind of cold weather. Although you will remember a few years ago where snow actually delayed the delivery of potash to the Midwest.

是的。好，那我先從磷酸鹽說起。是的，我們在 Faustina 工廠確實遇到了一些結冰問題。路易斯安那並不是經常結冰的地方。所以我們實際上可能會在工廠不同區段停機幾天。這肯定會造成影響。另一個有趣的面向是，在墨西哥灣以及加爾維斯頓周邊、河道不同區域，船舶移動以及硫磺的卸載與裝載都確實——都確實受到影響。但同樣地，我們把這視為正常營運的一部分。這些事情會發生，就像遇到颶風或其他狀況需要放慢速度一樣。所以我們已做好準備來應對天候事件。至於鉀肥，我想好消息是，我們在加拿大每年都會面對這種寒冷天氣。因此鐵路等供應鏈都很擅長應對這類低溫。雖然你會記得幾年前曾有降雪確實延誤了鉀肥運往中西部的交付。

Our next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

I have 2 questions on Brazil. First off, your crop input here, you talked about elevated channel inventories in Brazil impacting some of the crop input volumes there. Can you just talk about that, Fertilizante and the products that you set out? And then also in Brazil, I mean we've seen the Belarusians, the BPC forward sell potash about a year into Brazil at not much higher prices. How does that impact what Canpotex comes down to Brazil and have Fertilizante deals with pricing, too?

我有兩個關於巴西的問題。第一，你們在作物投入品這塊提到，巴西通路庫存偏高影響了當地部分作物投入品的銷量。你能否談談這點，Fertilizante 以及你們所銷售的產品？另外在巴西，我的意思是，我們看到白俄羅斯人、BPC 以高不了多少的價格，提前大約一年在巴西預售鉀肥。這會如何影響 Canpotex 供應到巴西的量？Fertilizante 的交易在定價上也會受到影響嗎？

Yes. Can you help me with your first question about the channel inventory, Joel, I didn't quite get the...

是的。Joel，你能幫我確認一下你第一個關於通路庫存的問題嗎？我沒有完全聽清楚那個……

Yes, we've seen different crop input suppliers talk about like larger inventories now in the channel of things like pesticide. And I wanted to see how you would comment -- how you see channel inventories in Brazil in some of the crop, some of the nutrition -- crop nutrition.

是的，我們看到不同的作物投入品供應商談到，例如像農藥這類產品在通路端目前有較高的庫存。我想請教您如何評論——您如何看待巴西在部分作物、以及部分營養——作物營養方面的通路庫存？

Okay. Got it. Let me start by saying good morning, Joel. In terms of our main fertilizers being potash and phosphates, we haven't seen elevated inventories of those. I mean if you look at last year, I think the -- in the final analysis, the use of fertilizers is going to be another record year, and I think it's going to top 37 million tonnes in Brazil. So there really was a big, big pull particularly in the third and fourth quarter in the country. And so we don't see elevated or above normal elevated inventories right now. In terms of the Belarusians or anyone else selling fertilizer into Brazil, I guess what I would say is those sales once made are what they are, and they don't affect the other -- the rest of the SMB.

好的。了解。讓我先說聲早安，Joel。就我們主要的肥料——鉀肥與磷肥——而言，我們並未看到這些產品有偏高的庫存。我的意思是，如果你看去年，我認為——最終分析下來——肥料使用量將會是另一個創紀錄的年度，我認為在巴西將超過3,700萬噸。因此，該國在第三與第四季確實出現了非常、非常強勁的拉貨。所以我們目前沒有看到偏高或高於正常水準的庫存。至於白俄羅斯或其他任何人向巴西銷售肥料，我想我會說，這些銷售一旦完成就是既成事實，且不會影響SMB的其他——其餘部分。

So if they have below market sales, and we're seeing this with India, China, that it really has not impacted other sales because people need the product. They're willing to pay the market rate for those products. And market rate has moved up. So normal supply and demand is demanding that people pay more for the potash. And particularly, we're seeing that in Brazil, which is almost like a market leader in the potash market.

所以如果他們以低於市場的價格銷售——我們在印度、中國也看到這種情況——其實並未影響其他銷售，因為人們需要產品。他們願意為這些產品支付市場價格。而市場價格已經上升。因此，正常的供需狀況要求人們為鉀肥支付更高的價格。尤其我們在巴西看到這一點，巴西幾乎像是鉀肥市場的市場領導者。

Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自UBS的John Roberts。

Congratulations on you making the Barron's 100 most sustainable companies list. I don't think we've ever had a fertilizer firm or even an ag firm on that list before. What do you think was the most important reason that you're the first to make that list?

恭喜你們入選《Barron's》百大最永續公司名單。我想這份名單以前從未有肥料公司，甚至農業公司上榜。你認為你們能成為第一家上榜的公司，最重要的原因是什麼？

Thanks, John. That's a really good question. I think look, if anything, I suspect the reason for it is because we've been focused on it for a long time, and we've set very concrete goals. We just set new goals for both air and water recently in terms of CO2 emissions and water use. But those are followed from 5 years of goals that we achieved over the last 5 years. So I would say, first of all, in terms of the basic environmental projects, we've been very focused on that for a long time. We certainly understand that as a resource company, we have to be more aware and more conscious of our impact on the environment. We believe we do an excellent job of running when we're running and then recovering and reclamation after the fact. And I assume that, that is a big piece of what they are recognizing. And again, while that's not why we do it, we are, of course, honored that they would recognize us in that way.

謝謝你，John。這是個非常好的問題。我想，坦白說，如果要推測原因，我猜是因為我們長期以來一直專注在這件事上，而且我們設定了非常具體的目標。我們最近在空氣與水資源方面也設定了新目標，涵蓋CO2排放與用水量。但這些是延續過去5年我們所設定、並在過去5年達成的目標。所以我會說，首先，就基本的環境專案而言，我們長期以來一直非常專注。我們當然理解，作為一家資源公司，我們必須更了解、也更有意識地關注我們對環境的影響。我們相信我們在營運期間的管理做得非常好，而在事後的復原與復墾方面也做得很好。我想這是他們所認可的一大部分。而且再次強調，雖然這不是我們這麼做的原因，但我們當然很榮幸他們以這種方式肯定我們。

(Operator Instructions) We have our next question come from the line of Michael Piken from Cleveland Research.

（接線員指示）我們的下一個問題來自Cleveland Research的Michael Piken。

I just wanted to talk a little bit more about K3, and I know you guys talked about kind of potentially boosting your production from 1.2 million to 3 million tonnes this year. Can you sort of break out in terms of the cost savings, how much is going to be brine inflow reductions versus actual savings on K3 and what the cadence might look like as we move into 2022 as well?

我想再多談一點K3。我知道你們提到今年可能把產量從120萬噸提高到300萬噸。你能否拆解一下成本節省的構成：其中有多少來自鹵水流入量降低，多少是K3本身的實際節省？另外，隨著我們進入2022年，節奏大概會是什麼樣子？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. It's a great topic. We've talked about this before, where the K3 project has run significantly ahead of schedule. And it looks like, I think we'll be telling you soon probably slightly under budget. So for a 10-year project or an 8-year project, that's a pretty pleasing outcome. In terms of the design, we expected to produce an extra million tonnes of potash from K3 when it was at full production. That amounts to about 3 million tonnes of incremental ore. So when we say we'll be up to 3 million tonnes, that means we'll be running virtually the whole incremental capacity of K3. Now what happens after that is K3 slowly takes over all production at the Esterhazy facility over the next couple of years. And what does that do for cost? The cost of -- first of all, the cost of production instead of producing it, let's say, at Colonsay, we have all the fixed costs. This is all coming in as incremental tonnes. And this is a good part of the reason why we believe our cash cost for mining is going -- at Esterhazy is going to end up somewhere below $60 a tonne, probably in that $50 to $60 a tonne range.

是的。謝謝你，Michael。這是個很棒的議題。我們之前談過，K3專案的進度明顯超前。看起來，我想我們很快會告訴各位，可能也會略低於預算。對一個10年期或8年期的專案來說，這是相當令人滿意的結果。就設計而言，我們原本預期K3在滿產時可額外生產100萬噸鉀肥。這相當於約300萬噸的增量礦石。因此當我們說會提升到300萬噸時，意思是我們幾乎會運行K3的全部增量產能。接下來會發生的是，K3在未來幾年會逐步接手Esterhazy設施的全部產量。那對成本有什麼影響？成本方面——首先，生產成本上，相較於例如在Colonsay生產，我們那邊有所有固定成本；而這些都會以增量噸數的形式進來。這也是我們相信Esterhazy的採礦現金成本將會落在每噸60美元以下、可能在每噸50到60美元區間的一個重要原因。

And that will really drive costs out of our system, and we've talked about $100 million this year from the -- producing tonnes from Esterhazy versus Colonsay. So that will continue. And it will continue to go down slightly from here. The other one, of course, is brine cost and brine cost I think peaked at $200 some million a year. They will be basically immaterial by the end of 2021. So we think that's another big improvement. And don't forget as well for Clint's comments, by pretty much by the end of 2021, we'll start ramping down the cost -- capital cost of Esterhazy, and that will be another big move towards better cash conversion for the company.

而這將真正把成本從我們的系統中擠出來。我們談過，今年因為在Esterhazy生產噸數而不是在Colonsay生產，將帶來1億美元的效益。這個效益會持續，並且從現在起還會略微再下降。另一項當然是鹵水成本；我認為鹵水成本曾在一年達到2億多美元。到2021年底，它們基本上將變得微不足道。所以我們認為這是另一個重大改善。另外也別忘了呼應Clint的評論，大致在2021年底，我們將開始逐步降低Esterhazy的資本成本，這也將是推動公司現金轉換率改善的另一個重大進展。

We have our next question come from the line of Mark Connelly from Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自Stephens的Mark Connelly。

Joc, I just wanted to ask if you could help us a little bit understand how much is left in terms of the per tonne cost benefits from the integrated operating center versus what you've already accomplished? And how soon that will be in place?

Joc，我想請你幫我們更了解一下：整合營運中心在每噸成本效益方面，還剩下多少尚未實現？以及大概多久會到位？

Yes. Okay, Mark. What I would say from our integrated operations center is -- it's really the first phase of it. And I wouldn't say that we've really seen in terms of our cost per tonne yet, too much of what the -- what that impact is going to be. But that is the basis -- the integrated operations center and I think there's a picture of it in the slides. I mean it's -- I got a chance to actually run one of the pit cars and it's pretty exciting how remote mining and whatnot is going to start changing things. And I -- what I will say is that, that is the basis of our cost targets we're talking about. But more importantly, I think we're going to find new things every day as we start automating, that are going to continue to drive costs out of our system.

是的。好的，Mark。就我們的整合營運中心而言——這其實是第一階段。我不會說我們在每噸成本方面已經看到太多——它最終會帶來的影響。但那是我們成本目標的基礎——整合營運中心，而且我想投影片裡有它的照片。我的意思是——我有機會實際操作其中一台礦車，遠端採礦等技術將如何開始改變一切，真的很令人興奮。我想我會說的是，這正是我們所談成本目標的基礎。但更重要的是，我認為當我們開始自動化時，我們每天都會發現新的機會，持續把成本從系統中擠出來。

Okay. So most of the benefits are probably still ahead of this then?

好的。所以大部分效益可能都還在後面？

Absolutely. Yes.

絕對是。是的。

And we have no questions at this time. Joc, you may continue.

目前沒有問題了。Joc，你可以繼續。

Okay. So that's a wrap here. I know you guys as analysts have had a very busy morning. But before I close, I'd just like to invite you to join us on March 11 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern for our in-depth presentation on optimizing our assets and our capital management, that Clint Freeland and I will be doing. With that, I want to wrap up today's call. But let me say, Mosaic is performing well. We're increasing our global competitiveness by driving our costs down, and we're managing well through the challenges of COVID-19. And with the tailwinds we expect to see from improving fertilizer and agricultural markets this year, we expect strong results to continue throughout 2021. So with that, thank you for joining us. Please have a safe and healthy day.

好的。那我們這邊就到此結束。我知道各位分析師今天早上都非常忙。不過在我結束之前，我想邀請各位在3月11日美東時間上午8:30加入我們，參加我們關於資產最佳化與資本管理的深入簡報，將由Clint Freeland和我共同進行。說到這裡，我想結束今天的電話會議。但我想說，Mosaic的表現良好。我們透過降低成本來提升全球競爭力，並且在COVID-19的挑戰下也管理得當。隨著我們預期今年肥料與農業市場改善所帶來的順風，我們預期強勁的成果將在2021年持續。那麼，感謝各位加入。祝各位平安健康。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you all for participating, and you may now disconnect. Have a great day.

各位女士、先生，今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位參與，現在可以掛線。祝各位有美好的一天。