美盛公司 (MOS) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Fireside Chat. (Operator Instructions) After the company completes their prepared remarks, the lines will be open to take your questions. Your host for today's call is Laura Gagnon, Vice President, Investor Relations of The Mosaic Company. Ms. Gagnon, you may begin.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2020 年第二季財報爐邊談話。（接線員指示）公司完成預先準備的發言後，將開放電話線供各位提問。今天電話會議的主持人是美盛公司投資人關係副總裁 Laura Gagnon。Gagnon 女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and welcome to our second quarter and 2020 earnings call. Presenting today will be Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer; and Rick McLellan, Senior Vice President, Commercial. We will host a prepared question-and-answer session addressing the questions received last night, followed by a short live Q&A session, time permitting.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們的第二季與 2020 年財報電話會議。今天出席簡報的有：總裁暨執行長 Joc O'Rourke；資深副總裁暨財務長 Clint Freeland；以及商務資深副總裁 Rick McLellan。我們將先進行一段預先準備的問答，回覆昨晚收到的問題，之後在時間允許的情況下，再進行一段簡短的即時問答。

All of our earnings materials released yesterday after market close are available on our website at mosaicco.com. We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release issued yesterday, and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們昨日收盤後發布的所有財報資料，均可於我們的網站 mosaicco.com 取得。本次電話會議中我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的說明。其係基於管理階層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述內容出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告中。

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our second quarter press release and performance data attached as exhibits to yesterday's Form 8-K filing as well as our commentary on the quarter posted to our website, also contain information important on these non-GAAP measures.

我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們第二季新聞稿、隨昨日提交之 Form 8-K 附上的作為附件之績效資料，以及我們發布於網站上的本季評論內容，也包含與這些非 GAAP 指標相關的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話會議交給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. I'll start with very brief comments, then we'll get straight on to your questions.

早安。感謝各位今天加入。我會先做非常簡短的說明，接著我們就直接進入各位的提問。

This was a very good quarter for Mosaic, and our momentum is increasing. The key points about our performance are: our cash flow generation this quarter is the result of the past 5 years of work by our team to transform our cost structure and strengthen our franchise; we're succeeding even earlier than we expected; we've already achieved 5 of our 72021 cost targets.

這對美盛而言是非常好的一季，我們的動能正在加速。我們表現的重點包括：本季的現金流量創造，來自我們團隊過去 5 年致力於改造成本結構並強化核心競爭力的成果；我們的成功比預期更早；我們已經達成 2021 年成本目標中的 5 項。

Even with realized potash prices down $20 per tonne from the first quarter and realized phosphate prices up just $13 per tonne in the quarter, we generated over $800 million in cash from operations. We delivered adjusted EBITDA 25% higher than consensus expectations, even before our adjusted EBITDA definition change. We paid down $500 million in short-term debt and structured payables in the quarter while retaining cash on the balance sheet above $1 billion.

即使本季實現的鉀肥價格較第一季每噸下跌 20 美元、實現的磷酸鹽價格在本季僅每噸上漲 13 美元，我們仍從營運活動產生超過 8 億美元現金。我們的調整後 EBITDA 較市場共識預期高出 25%，即使是在我們調整後 EBITDA 定義變更之前亦然。我們在本季償還了 5 億美元的短期債務與結構性應付帳款，同時仍將資產負債表上的現金維持在 10 億美元以上。

In potash, we continue to invest in the accelerated K3 project, hitting a major milestone of connecting the K3 shafts to the K1 mill. We continue to reduce our brine management costs and we achieved the lowest cash cost per tonne of production in over a decade.

在鉀肥方面，我們持續投資於加速推進的 K3 專案，並達成一項重要里程碑：將 K3 井筒與 K1 選礦廠連接。我們持續降低鹵水管理成本，並達成逾十年來最低的每噸生產現金成本。

Mosaic Fertilizantes had an excellent quarter, hitting both real-based cost targets and achieving further cost benefits from the weakening real as well as realizing over 80% of our targeted full year transformation benefits. Phosphates drove the cash cost of rock below the target and lower than last year despite increasing distances from mining to beneficiation.

Mosaic Fertilizantes 表現出色，不僅達成以雷亞爾計價的成本目標，也因雷亞爾走弱而取得進一步的成本效益，並已實現我們全年轉型效益目標的 80% 以上。磷酸鹽業務將礦石現金成本降至低於目標，且即使採礦至選礦的運輸距離增加，成本仍低於去年。

And with all of these efforts, we've reaffirmed our commitment to you, to our shareholders, our employees, our customers and our communities to act responsibly. We announced new aggressive broad-based environmental, social and governance targets, and we will use these targets to drive performance across the business.

在上述所有努力之下，我們也再次向各位、向股東、員工、客戶與社區重申：我們將負責任地行事。我們宣布了新的、積極且涵蓋面廣的環境、社會與公司治理（ESG）目標，並將以這些目標推動全公司各項業務的績效。

We are continuing to transform. The quarter's accelerating earnings and cash flow clearly reflect our efforts to date, and we are driving additional future savings. We expect to deliver another $700 million in savings above the 2019 base as we continue to execute our strategy.

我們持續轉型。本季加速成長的獲利與現金流量清楚反映我們迄今的努力成果，而我們也正在推動更多未來節省。我們預期在持續執行策略的同時，將在 2019 年基準之上再額外實現 7 億美元的節省。

Mosaic is more competitive than ever before, and with fertilizer markets improving, we have significant earnings leverage to the future.

美盛的競爭力較以往任何時候都更強，而隨著肥料市場改善，我們對未來獲利具有顯著的槓桿效應。

Now we'll take your questions.

現在我們開始回答各位的問題。

Joc, I'm going to start with some questions we received on cost. Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs asked: In the second quarter, Mosaic was ahead of its 2021 target on a number of its key cost KPIs. How much incremental opportunities do you see on each key metric to further reduce costs? And if so, what level of incremental capital spend would be necessary to achieve those outcomes?

Joc，我先從我們收到的成本相關問題開始。高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson 提問：在第二季，美盛在多項關鍵成本 KPI 上已領先 2021 年目標。就各項關鍵指標而言，您認為還有多少額外的機會可以進一步降低成本？若有，為達成這些成果需要多少額外的資本支出？

Thanks for your question, Adam. As we've said earlier, we have new targets that include $700 million of additional improvements across the company, $200 million of those coming from our Brazil operation and $500 million coming from our North American and administrative. Some of the areas where we believe we can make big gains as we go forward, obviously, are in Brazil, where we continue to improve that business; in North America, where automation is allowing us to drive efficiencies in both phosphates and potash. And then, of course, our K3 operation, which, as we ramp it up, we'll eliminate a lot of cost and improve our brine management cost. So as we look forward, we see a lot of opportunities still. And importantly, in September, when we bring our -- all of this to our Analyst Day, we expect to be able to give you more color and detail on what that's going to look like.

Adam，謝謝你的問題。如同我們先前所說，我們設定了新的目標，包含全公司額外改善 7 億美元，其中 2 億美元來自巴西營運，5 億美元來自北美與管理部門。我們認為未來可取得重大進展的領域，顯然包括巴西，我們會持續改善該業務；北美方面，自動化正讓我們在磷酸鹽與鉀肥兩端提升效率；當然還有我們的 K3 營運，隨著產能爬坡，我們將消除大量成本並改善鹵水管理成本。因此展望未來，我們仍看到許多機會。更重要的是，在 9 月的分析師日，當我們把這些內容完整呈現時，我們預期能提供更多背景與細節，說明其具體樣貌。

Joc, Chris Parkinson from Crédit Suisse asked: You're clearly comfortably ahead on numerous cost initiatives, including your K3 shaft, brine inflow, phosphate rock costs in the U.S. and Brazil and Fertilizantes platform. But would you take a step back, how are you thinking about your structural cost base in a normalized environment? And how much more could actually be done, especially in phosphate?

Joc，瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Chris Parkinson 提問：你們在多項成本計畫上顯然都大幅超前，包括 K3 井筒、鹵水流入、在美國與巴西的磷礦石成本，以及 Fertilizantes 平台。不過若退一步來看，在正常化環境下，你們如何看待自身的結構性成本基礎？還能再做多少，尤其是在磷酸鹽方面？

Yes. Thank you, Chris. It's important to keep in mind that these cost improvements certainly are somewhat driven by high utilization. We've had a good quarter where we're able to use our assets fully and we've had some benefits from exchange rate, particularly in Brazil, but also in Canada. Over the long term, though, the real differences have been structural, and those are going to stay with us and those are going to continue, and we're going to continue to improve those. So if we look at our major projects, which include Esterhazy K3, next-gen mining and the Brazil transformation, those are not temporary differences. Those are true structural changes that we'll be delivering value for the long term.

是的，謝謝你，Chris。需要記住的是，這些成本改善確實在某種程度上受高稼動率所驅動。我們本季表現良好，能充分運用資產；同時也受惠於匯率，特別是在巴西，但加拿大也有一些影響。然而從長期來看，真正的差異是結構性的，而這些將會持續存在、並會延續下去，我們也會持續改善。因此若看我們的主要專案，包括 Esterhazy K3、下一代採礦，以及巴西轉型，這些都不是暫時性的差異，而是真正的結構性改變，將在長期為我們帶來價值。

Joc, Michael Piken from Cleveland Research asked: You mentioned that you are on track to exceed your $225 million in nonmarket growth in 2020. Which segments are exceeding your expectations and how higher can this number go for 2020?

Joc，Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken 提問：你提到你們有望在 2020 年超越 2.25 億美元的非市場成長。哪些事業部門的表現超出你的預期？而在 2020 年這個數字還能提高到多高？

Michael, let me clarify. Our $225 million were actual items that we spent in 2019, but we did not expect to repeat in 2020. And so on those, some of the key items, the Plant City idling, that's happened and now is outside of our cost structure. Our Brazilian dams, we've completed the work now and that $80 million of cost is now behind us. Equally, the ramp-up of Esterhazy, which has gotten better than we expected, we now are delivering 1 million tonnes a year from the K3 project. So that benefit has already flowed through to us. And then of our $50 million of transformation in Brazil that were part of that $225 million, we're already at over $40 million. So we see that as pretty much complete, and ongoing savings will be above and beyond that original $225 million we talked about.

Michael，我澄清一下。我們所說的 2.25 億美元，是我們在 2019 年實際發生、但原本預期 2020 年不會重複發生的項目。就這些項目而言，其中一些關鍵項目包括 Plant City 的停產，這已經發生，現在也已不再納入我們的成本結構。我們在巴西的尾礦壩工程已完成，因此那 8,000 萬美元的成本已成為過去。同樣地，Esterhazy 的爬坡進度比我們預期更好，我們現在已從 K3 專案每年交付 100 萬噸，因此該效益已反映在我們的表現中。此外，在屬於該 2.25 億美元的一部分、巴西 5,000 萬美元轉型項目方面，我們已超過 4,000 萬美元。因此我們認為這部分幾乎已完成，而後續的持續節省將會高於我們原先談到的 2.25 億美元。

Joc, a large number of questions seeks a better understanding of our countervailing duty petition. Seth Goldstein from Morningstar, Chris Parkinson from Crédit Suisse asked for an update on potential regulation changes of the U.S. import duties on Morocco and Russian supply. And if the outcome is successful in our favor, what should they expect in changes to their landed U.S. costs? In other words, what are the potential outcomes in terms of leveling the playing field?

Joc，有大量問題希望更深入了解我們的反補貼稅申請案。Morningstar 的 Seth Goldstein、瑞士信貸的 Chris Parkinson 詢問美國對摩洛哥與俄羅斯供應的進口關稅可能出現的法規變更之最新進展。若結果對我們有利，他們在到岸美國成本方面應預期會有哪些變化？換言之，在拉平競爭環境方面，可能的結果是什麼？

Thank you, gentlemen. Let me start by saying we believe in free and fair trade. However, the reason we filed this petition in the first place was to address imbalances associated with unfair government subsidies on imports and to highlight unequal requirements on environmental standards. We believe our competitors benefit from access to artificially low rock costs and energy, while not having to meet adequate and proper environmental standards. We also will say that what we have done is put this forward to the Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission. They will judge on the merits, and as such, determine what level of duties, if any, need to be put in place to create a fair trade situation. And Clint, do you have anything to add to that?

謝謝各位先生。我先說明，我們相信自由且公平的貿易。然而，我們之所以提出此申請，主要是為了處理與進口品不公平政府補貼相關的不平衡，並凸顯環境標準要求的不對等。我們認為競爭對手受惠於人為壓低的礦石成本與能源成本，卻不必符合充分且適當的環境標準。我們也要說明，我們已將此案提交美國商務部與國際貿易委員會。他們將依據案情實質內容作出判斷，並據此決定是否需要課徵關稅，以及若需要，應課徵何種水準，以建立公平貿易的情況。Clint，你還有要補充的嗎？

Yes. No, Joc, I think you're right. We certainly are ahead of schedule on the realization of the $225 million in nonmarket benefit this year. Keep in mind that the $80 million that we spent on dam remediation last year was spread really through the second to fourth quarter. So we realized about $36 million in benefit in the second quarter and should realize the balance throughout the rest of the year.

有的。不，Joc，我認為你說得對。我們今年在實現 2.25 億美元非市場效益方面，確實進度超前。請記得，我們去年用於水壩修復的 8,000 萬美元支出，實際上主要分布在第二到第四季。因此，我們在第二季實現了約 3,600 萬美元的效益，其餘部分應會在今年剩餘期間逐步實現。

Joc, John Roberts from UBS would like to know, can you review the basis for your phosphates countervailing duty to position? And have you had any response from customers or competitors?

Joc，UBS 的 John Roberts 想了解：你能否回顧你們在磷酸鹽反補貼稅立場的依據？以及你們是否收到客戶或競爭對手的任何回應？

Thank you, John. Our basis for the petition is clearly laid out in the public documents. And I would ask that you go to those. Also, the comments from any of our competitors or customers or the other concerned groups is clearly laid out in those public documents. So I would suggest you go there. Our position is clearly that the Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission really are the ones that will decide what are the merits of this case. Now clearly, as we talk to our customers, some are concerned mostly about how they're going to get their supply. We believe that this has opened up new opportunities for outside competitors to come in and make up some of that supply. But in the end, I think all people understand why we'd put it forward. And we'll have to wait to see what the ITC says in terms of its merit.

謝謝你，John。我們提出申請的依據已在公開文件中清楚載明，我建議你查閱那些文件。此外，任何來自競爭對手、客戶或其他相關團體的意見，也都在公開文件中清楚列出，因此我也建議你到那裡查看。我們的立場很明確：美國商務部與國際貿易委員會才是真正會判定本案實質內容的人。當然，當我們與客戶溝通時，有些客戶主要擔心的是他們將如何取得供應。我們認為，這也為外部競爭者進入並補足部分供應創造了新機會。但最終，我想大家都理解我們為何提出此案。我們必須等待 ITC 就其案情實質作出判斷。

Joc, we received several questions asking about trade flows and implications to other markets. Specifically, Adam Samuelson and 7 others asked: over the next 6 to 12 months, how do we think about the net impact of potential trade flow impacts of potential U.S. countervailing duties on Morocco and Russian phosphate? Do you see risk of market share competition rising in other major import markets, notably Brazil?

Joc，我們收到幾個關於貿易流向及對其他市場影響的問題。具體而言，Adam Samuelson 以及另外 7 位提問：在未來 6 到 12 個月，我們應如何看待美國可能對摩洛哥與俄羅斯磷酸鹽課徵反補貼稅，對貿易流向的潛在影響之淨效應？你是否看到在其他主要進口市場（尤其是巴西）市場份額競爭升溫的風險？

Thanks, Mike and Joel. Let's answer the last question first. No, we don't think this will impact global supply and demand. All we will do is probably change trade flow. The current market and resulting pricing is reflective of a tight market. And if anything, the countervailing duties only highlighted to people that this market was tight. So what's causing the tight market? Favorable farm economics and lower supply, which began to take shape well before we filed the petition. However, it is reasonable to assume that the trade flows will be altered and some product will be shifted to other jurisdictions, including new suppliers coming into the U.S. and the Moroccan and Russian suppliers focusing on other markets, which could be Brazil or wherever.

謝謝你，Mike 和 Joel。我們先回答最後一個問題。不，我們不認為這會影響全球供需。我們所做的很可能只是改變貿易流向。目前的市場狀況與形成的價格反映的是一個供應吃緊的市場。若真要說，反補貼稅反而讓大家更注意到這個市場其實很緊。那麼造成市場緊俏的原因是什麼？有利的農業經濟與較低的供給，而這些在我們提出申請之前就已開始成形。不過，合理的推論是貿易流向將被改變，部分產品會轉往其他司法管轄區，包括新的供應商進入美國市場，以及摩洛哥與俄羅斯供應商轉而聚焦其他市場，可能是巴西或其他地方。

Jonas Oxgaard from Bernstein asked 2 more technical questions with respect to the petition, namely, if the Mosaic trade complaint is upheld, will there be a retroactive benefit to Mosaic? And what is the time line for final decision on the complaint?

Bernstein 的 Jonas Oxgaard 就此申請案又問了兩個較技術性的問題：也就是，如果 Mosaic 的貿易申訴獲得支持，Mosaic 是否會有追溯性的利益？以及對該申訴作出最終決定的時間表為何？

So look, thank you, Jonas. Let me first clarify. Whether duties are applied retroactively will depend upon the level of imports from these 2 countries from the filing of the case until the DOC preliminary ruling. We expect the case to be finalized in Q1 2021. And at that point, if there has been excessive imports, they will look at assessing a retroactive duty.

好的，謝謝你，Jonas。我先澄清：是否追溯適用關稅，將取決於自案件提出到美國商務部（DOC）初步裁定期間，這兩個國家的進口量水準。我們預期此案將於 2021 年第一季定案。屆時，若存在過度進口，他們將考慮課徵追溯性關稅。

Joc, I'm now going to move on to questions about phosphate operations. Ben Isaacson from Scotia asked: On the cash cost of mine rock in Florida falling to $36 per tonne from $40 year-over-year, how much of that was due to transformational efforts versus favorable geology? And how much more wiggle room is there to bring that down? And how sustainable are these cost improvements?

Joc，我現在要轉到關於磷酸鹽營運的問題。Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson 問：佛羅里達礦石的現金成本從去年同期每噸 40 美元降至每噸 36 美元，其中有多少是來自轉型措施、又有多少是來自有利的地質條件？此外，還有多少空間可以再降？這些成本改善的可持續性如何？

Thank you, Ben. Clearly, our cost improvements are a combination of several factors. We've certainly been running our assets at elevated utilization rates, and that's helped. But our efforts to centralize mining operations, streamline processes and automate have also helped reduce our cost. As previously mentioned, the establishment of a central control center for our mining and collapsing all of our mining operations basically into one large operation, which should be -- begin operation by the end of the year, will really further enhance cost savings. And as we introduce new management structures, incorporate automation for certain mining functions and accelerate savings from adjustments to transportation, we start to see real long-term improvements in our cost structure.

謝謝你，Ben。很明顯，我們的成本改善是多項因素的組合。我們確實以較高的產能利用率運行資產，這有所幫助。但我們在集中化採礦作業、精簡流程與自動化方面的努力，也有助於降低成本。如先前所提，為採礦建立中央控制中心，並將所有採礦作業基本整併為一個大型作業單元，預計在今年年底前開始運作，將進一步強化成本節省。隨著我們導入新的管理架構、在特定採礦功能上導入自動化，並加速運輸調整帶來的節省，我們開始看到成本結構的真正長期改善。

Joc, PJ Juvekar from Citi also asked: With the recent rise of over $50 per tonne in DAP pricing, have you ramped up your production at the mine? And what could be the benefit of better cost absorption from higher tonnes in the third quarter?

Joc，Citi 的 PJ Juvekar 也問：近期 DAP 價格上漲超過每噸 50 美元，你們是否已在礦山端提高產量？第三季若以更高的產量（噸數）帶來更好的成本吸收，可能帶來什麼效益？

Thanks for the question, PJ. High utilization rates have a beneficial impact, but that's really only part of the story, as we've mentioned. But I will say that as we look at Q3 going forward, we can expect those tonnage, high tonnage and higher utilization rates to continue. So we do expect to see better costs throughout the rest of the year, both structurally and because of high utilization.

謝謝你的問題，PJ。高產能利用率確實有正面影響，但如我們提過的，那只是故事的一部分。不過我會說，展望第三季，我們可預期這些噸數——高噸數與較高的產能利用率——將會延續。因此，我們確實預期在今年剩餘期間成本會更好，既有結構性的改善，也受惠於高利用率。

Joc, we also have a question from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs. With specialty percentage rose to 48% of shipments and marked a new quarterly high in phosphate, coincident with MicroEssentials' shipments to Fertilizantes being substantially above recent quarters, is this sustainable? Why or why not?

Joc，我們也有一個來自高盛 Adam Samuelson 的問題。磷酸鹽業務中，特種產品占出貨比重上升至 48%，創下新的單季高點；同時，MicroEssentials 對 Fertilizantes 的出貨量也顯著高於近幾季。這是否可持續？為什麼或為什麼不？

Thank you, Adam. The sales of MicroEssentials and Aspire hit record highs and K-Mag came in close to the record in quarter 2 2020. Among these growth, MicroEssentials' shipments to Brazil has been a major driver. Now we believe the growth of MicroEssentials will continue over the next quarter, driven by Mosaic Fertilizantes and also North America. I have to reemphasize the value that MicroEssentials brings to the growers is showing positive returns for them on their investments. So these are bringing real value to the growers and to our customers, the distributors, so we do believe that as more people start using MicroEssentials, this is very sustainable, and they're going to see the benefit and they're going to keep using that product.

謝謝你，Adam。MicroEssentials 與 Aspire 的銷售創下歷史新高，而 K-Mag 在 2020 年第二季也接近歷史紀錄。在這些成長之中，MicroEssentials 對巴西的出貨一直是主要驅動因素。我們相信 MicroEssentials 的成長在下一季仍會延續，動能來自 Mosaic Fertilizantes 以及北美。我必須再次強調，MicroEssentials 為種植戶帶來的價值，正為他們的投資帶來正向回報。因此，這些產品為種植戶與我們的客戶（經銷商）帶來了實質價值；我們確實相信，隨著更多人開始使用 MicroEssentials，這是非常可持續的，他們會看到效益並持續使用該產品。

Joc, 3 analysts submitted multipart questions related to our potash operations. So first, Chris Parkinson asked: The demand environment in potash appears to be modestly improving while spot prices are well off their first half lows. Can you talk about your thought process for the second half of '21 operating rate assumptions and how that may drive changes in your mine mix?

Joc，有 3 位分析師提交了與我們鉀肥業務相關的多部分問題。首先，Chris Parkinson 問：鉀肥的需求環境似乎正在溫和改善，而現貨價格也已明顯高於上半年低點。你能談談你們對 2021 年下半年營運稼動率假設的思考過程，以及這可能如何推動你們礦場組合的變化嗎？

Thanks, Chris. As you know, we've accelerated the development of K3 and this has an obvious impact on costs, both now with declining brine management spending and in the future as the mine ramps up. Beyond K3, we continue to see strong results from Belle Plaine, which recorded its lowest cost position in more than a decade. As we move forward, we're going to take advantage of owning 2 of only 7 mines in the world with annual production capacity of over 3 million tonnes, and with some of the lowest costs in the industry. So as we look to the future, we intend to optimize the production coming from K3 and from our Belle Plaine operation and only see running higher-cost mines like Colonsay, if the market really requires it in the future.

謝謝你，Chris。如你所知，我們已加速 K3 的開發，這對成本有明顯影響——不論是目前因鹵水管理支出下降而帶來的影響，或是未來隨著礦場爬坡所帶來的影響。除了 K3 之外，我們也持續看到 Belle Plaine 的強勁成果，其成本水準創下逾十年來最低。展望未來，我們將善用我們擁有全球僅 7 座年產能超過 300 萬噸礦場中的 2 座，且成本為業界最低之一的優勢。因此，當我們看向未來時，我們打算最佳化來自 K3 與 Belle Plaine 營運的產量，並且只有在未來市場確實需要時，才會考慮讓像 Colonsay 這類較高成本的礦場以較高負荷運轉。

Joc, another question comes to you from Jonas Oxgaard of Bernstein. In potash, you lowered your cost per tonne a fair bit, but how much of that was simply spreading fixed costs over a 20% larger volume? On a fixed volume basis, what would your cost reduction be?

Joc，另一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Jonas Oxgaard。在鉀肥方面，你們把每噸成本下調了不少，但其中有多少只是把固定成本攤到高出 20% 的產量上？若以固定產量為基礎，你們的成本降低幅度會是多少？

Good question, Jonas. There is no question that the larger volume helps spread out our costs. However, we believe there are structural changes that are fundamentally changing our costs over the long term. We think one area of clear savings is the accelerated reduction of brine management costs as we shift to K3. K1 underground mining will be completed this year. Brine management accounted for $8 a tonne in Q2, and that will continue to decline as we move into 2021 and will be eliminated completely by 2022. So as you can see, a lot of our cost reduction is actually structural and should be with us for the long term.

好問題，Jonas。毫無疑問，較大的產量有助於分攤我們的成本。不過，我們認為有一些結構性變化正在從根本上改變我們的長期成本。我們認為一個明確的節省來源，是隨著我們轉向 K3，鹵水管理成本加速下降。K1 的地下採礦將在今年完成。第二季鹵水管理約占每噸 8 美元，隨著我們進入 2021 年將持續下降，並會在 2022 年完全消除。因此你可以看到，我們的成本降低有很大一部分其實是結構性的，並且應會長期持續。

Joc, PJ Juvekar from Citi asked: What kind of savings do you expect from sending K3 potash ore to the K1 mill? And what is the updated time line now to shut down K1 and K2?

Joc，Citi 的 PJ Juvekar 問：把 K3 的鉀肥礦石送到 K1 選礦廠，你們預期會有什麼樣的節省？另外，現在關閉 K1 與 K2 的最新時間表是什麼？

Thank you, PJ. We expect to be sending potash to K1 and actually be shutting down our K1 shafts from a production perspective early in 2021. That will start meaning we're only going to be operating 2 shafts. And then by the end of 2022, only operating the one big K3 shaft. At that point, the project will be complete, we'll eliminate brine inflow and that really will be the end of our K1 and K2 plant mines from a production perspective.

謝謝你，PJ。我們預期會把鉀肥送到 K1，並且從生產角度在 2021 年初關閉我們的 K1 井筒。那將意味著我們只會運作 2 個井筒。接著到 2022 年底，就只會運作一個大型的 K3 井筒。到那時，專案將完成，我們會消除鹵水流入，而從生產角度來看，這也將真正結束我們 K1 與 K2 的廠礦運作。

Joc, Vincent Andrews is interested in how he should think about our potash shipments in the second half of this year, given how strong shipments were in second quarter. Also, can we remind him of the accounting for the Chinese contract shipments that were already in a bonded warehouse prior to contract agreements?

Joc，Vincent Andrews 想了解，在第二季出貨量如此強勁的情況下，他應該如何看待我們今年下半年的鉀肥出貨。另外，我們能否提醒他：在合約達成之前就已在保稅倉庫中的中國合約出貨，其會計處理方式是什麼？

Thank you, Vincent. Yes, we did have strong shipments in quarter 1. And if I referred to our discussions with Canpotex, I think they have a fairly full order book for Q3 and even going well into Q4. So I believe the shipments internationally will be strong in the second half. And domestically, we're expecting a good fall in North America. So we're expecting strong shipments there as well. So from our perspective, our second half is looking pretty strong from a potash perspective. In terms of the shipments in the first half, I'd just like to throw it over to Clint to explain a little bit about our China shipments to bonded warehouse that we rev recced in the first half of the year. Clint, can you discuss that?

謝謝你，Vincent。是的，我們在第一季確實有強勁的出貨量。如果我提到我們與 Canpotex 的討論，我認為他們第三季的訂單簿相當滿，甚至延伸到第四季相當一段時間。因此我相信下半年國際出貨會很強勁。而在國內方面，我們預期北美秋季表現良好，所以那邊的出貨也會很強。就我們的角度而言，從鉀肥來看，我們下半年看起來相當強勁。至於上半年的出貨，我想把話題交給 Clint，請他稍微說明一下我們上半年對中國保稅倉庫出貨、我們已在上半年認列（rev recced）的部分。Clint，你能談談嗎？

Sure, Joc. Vincent, so to start with, on a consolidated basis, we don't recognize revenue until that product is sold to a third party. However, we do -- on a segment level basis, we do recognize a revenue when Canpotex sells product to our distribution business in China. And when they sent that product to our distribution business in China, the segment recognized revenue, but that was based on an estimate of pricing since the contract had not been completed. Once the contract was completed and the price for that transaction was set, that gave rise to the adjustment. But again, that's an adjustment on the Potash segment only because we won't recognize revenue on that product on a consolidated basis until it's finally sold to a third party.

當然可以，Joc。Vincent，先從合併基礎來說，我們直到該產品售予第三方時才會認列收入。不過，在事業部門層級，我們會在 Canpotex 將產品售予我們在中國的分銷業務時認列收入。當他們把產品送到我們在中國的分銷業務時，該事業部門就認列了收入，但因合約尚未完成，該收入是基於對價格的估計。一旦合約完成、該筆交易的價格確定，就會產生調整。但再次強調，這只是鉀肥事業部門的調整，因為在合併基礎下，我們要等到該產品最終售予第三方時才會認列收入。

Thanks for that clarification, Clint.

謝謝你的澄清，Clint。

Joc, I'm now going to move on to questions about Mosaic Fertilizantes. We have 4 analysts, including John Roberts from UBS and Mark Connelly from Stephens, asked similar questions about the timing of volumes in Brazil. Brazilian farmers are having an outstanding year so far and have been widely reported to be buying inputs well ahead of last year's schedule. How much do you think has been borrowed from the third quarter? And are we likely to see an offsetting reduction in third quarter margin to reflect those lower volumes next quarter? And specifically within the quarter, April and May were significantly higher than the prior year month, while June appeared to be much closer to a year ago. Is that just timing? Or are the trends decelerating into July?

Joc，我現在要轉到關於 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的問題。我們有 4 位分析師（包括 UBS 的 John Roberts 與 Stephens 的 Mark Connelly）問了類似的問題，關於巴西的銷量時點。巴西農民今年迄今表現非常出色，且廣泛報導指出他們購買投入品的時間比去年進度提前許多。你認為第三季有多少需求被提前到前面了？我們是否可能在第三季看到反向的毛利下滑，以反映下季較低的銷量？另外，就季度內來看，4 月與 5 月明顯高於去年同期，而 6 月看起來更接近去年水準。這只是時點因素嗎？還是趨勢在進入 7 月時正在放緩？

Great question. The strong volumes in the first half of the year did reflect some forward input purchases as a result of generally favorable farm economics. But year-over-year demand is expected to be up slightly to 37 million tonnes. And in that figure, we believe we are beginning to take market share as farmers gravitate towards higher analysis products and high-value products such as our MicroEssentials.

好問題。上半年強勁的銷量確實反映了在整體農業經濟普遍有利的情況下，部分投入品採購提前。不過，預期年對年需求將小幅上升至 3,700 萬噸。在這個數字中，我們相信隨著農民轉向更高含量（higher analysis）的產品以及像我們 MicroEssentials 這類高價值產品，我們正開始取得市占率。

Joc, Mark Connelly at Stephens asked, how did the dramatic improvement in costs in Brazil break out between volume-driven cost improvement and operational structural cost change that should repeat with normal volumes?

Joc，Stephens 的 Mark Connelly 問：巴西成本大幅改善，若拆分來看，多少是由銷量帶動的成本改善，多少是營運面的結構性成本變化、在正常銷量下也應可重複出現？

Thank you, Mark. Let me start by saying last year, our operations were negatively impacted by the change in regulations that required us to shut down a couple of operations for down improvements. That reduced volume and impact of our raw materials access. This year, we're benefiting from running at full operations rate. And this also has allowed us to have more access to our own rock supply. So overall, that has helped a little bit. So about 1/3 of what those costs are probably volume related. The others are improvements to our freight, our inventory management, our overall planning and, of course, structural changes to our cost structures. I think overall, though, we're seeing long-term changes to how the Brazil business is running, and we're starting to see full benefit of the $330 million or so of integration benefit that we announced at the end of last year.

謝謝你，Mark。我先說明，去年我們的營運受到法規變更的負面影響，該變更要求我們關閉幾個營運點以進行停機改善（down improvements）。那降低了產量，也影響了我們取得原料的能力。今年，我們受惠於以滿載的營運稼動率運轉，這也讓我們能更多取得自有的礦石供應。整體而言，這帶來了一些幫助。因此，這些成本中大約 1/3 可能與銷量相關；其餘則是我們在運輸、庫存管理、整體規劃上的改善，當然也包括我們成本結構的結構性變革。我認為整體來看，我們看到巴西業務的運作方式正在出現長期變化，而我們也開始充分受惠於我們在去年底宣布的約 3.3 億美元整合效益。

Joc, PJ Juvekar has a question about currency. The Brazilian real versus the U.S. dollar was down significantly year-over-year in the second quarter of 2020. How did that volatility impact you? And what specifically was the impact in the quarter on Mosaic Fertilizantes?

Joc，PJ Juvekar 有一個關於匯率的問題。2020 年第二季巴西雷亞爾兌美元年對年大幅下跌。這種波動對你們造成了什麼影響？具體而言，對 Mosaic Fertilizantes 在本季的影響是什麼？

Thanks, PJ. I'd like to talk about 2 aspects of the Brazilian real that really has changed things. And the first of those, of course, is the impact on farmer economics. I think that is actually the bigger improvement, their ability to buy fertilizers and the continuous growth of the Brazilian agriculture segment is largely driven by great economics for the farmer. And so that's the first place we want to talk about where the Brazilian real has helped us.

謝謝你，PJ。我想談談巴西雷亞爾真正改變情勢的兩個面向。第一個當然是對農民經濟狀況的影響。我認為那其實是更大的改善——他們購買肥料的能力，以及巴西農業板塊的持續成長，在很大程度上是由農民良好的經濟狀況所驅動。因此，這是我們想先談的第一個地方：巴西雷亞爾如何幫助了我們。

In terms of our cost performance, you will see that we tend to put our targets in real based, so that allows us to understand what's the real underlying improvement. Obviously, there was some positive impact. I think we saw definite improvements in our overall cost because of the real. But I would say, we focus more on what is the real-based cost because that tells us whether we're really improving the business or just taking advantage of currency. Though in the back, you'll notice -- sorry, PJ, I'd also like to point out that if you look at the back of our stuff, you'll see basically our sensitivities and a $0.10 move in the real amounts to about $20 million a year unhedged. So if we think about us as being about 50% hedged, it's fairly easy to do the reconciliation To last year's real costs.

就我們的成本表現而言，你會看到我們傾向於以巴西雷亞爾（real）為基礎來設定目標，這讓我們能夠了解真正的底層改善。顯然，確實有一些正面影響。我認為因為雷亞爾的因素，我們在整體成本上看到了明顯改善。但我會說，我們更專注於以雷亞爾為基礎的成本，因為那能告訴我們，我們究竟是在真正改善業務，還是只是利用匯率優勢。不過在後面你會注意到——抱歉，PJ，我也想指出，如果你看我們資料的後面，你會看到基本上我們的敏感度：雷亞爾每變動 0.10 美元，未避險情況下一年約影響 2,000 萬美元。所以如果我們把自己視為約 50% 已避險，那麼要把它與去年的雷亞爾成本做調節其實相當容易。

Joc, we have another question from Ben Isaacson with respect to Mosaic Fertilizantes. Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes have been notably higher year-over-year. Can you walk through the strategic strength of this business and how it relates to your mix between commodity and MicroEssentials tonnes?

Joc，我們還有一個來自 Ben Isaacson、關於 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的問題。Mosaic Fertilizantes 的銷售量年增顯著提高。你能否說明這項業務的策略性優勢，以及它如何與你們在大宗商品與 MicroEssentials 噸數之間的產品組合相關？

Thanks, Ben. Again, I've said this before, but I'll repeat. The volume growth really was a result of improvement in farm economics in Brazil. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar versus the real excellent barter ratios and anticipation of a strong summer crop demand. So both commodity and performance products have shown robust increases in quarter 2 of 2020 versus a year ago.

謝謝你，Ben。我之前也說過，但我再重申一次。銷量成長主要是巴西農業經濟改善的結果。美元相對雷亞爾走強、極佳的以物易物比率（barter ratios），以及對強勁夏季作物需求的預期。因此，無論是大宗商品或效能型產品，在 2020 年第二季相較一年前都呈現強勁成長。

Joc, Chris Parkinson's asked for a COVID-19 update. His question is, Brazil is in the midst of a fairly complex COVID-19 outbreak, which has periodically been affecting the ports and logistics system. Can you give us an update on the demand environment as well as any logistical headwinds you foresee during the peak fertilizer application season?

Joc，Chris Parkinson 詢問 COVID-19 的最新情況。他的問題是：巴西正處於相當複雜的 COVID-19 疫情爆發中，並且不時影響港口與物流系統。你能否更新需求環境，以及在肥料施用旺季期間，你預期可能面臨的任何物流逆風？

Thanks, Chris. Look, let's start from our own operations in Brazil. And although we've had a number of cases because of the high level of community transmission, we have not been impacted on our operations to this point, and we've instituted a number of procedures to make sure we mitigate the spread. But -- sorry. And then from an overall country logistics perspective, we believe that, in general, we have been unaffected by COVID. Now obviously, there's going to be local places where that impacts us. But in general, we've been able to work around that and kept the product moving to the end customer. And from a demand perspective, despite COVID, we've continued to see strong demand, again, driven by favorable foreign economics and we have got our product to our customers with relatively little impact.

謝謝你，Chris。先從我們在巴西自身的營運談起。雖然由於社區傳播程度高，我們出現了若干病例，但截至目前我們的營運尚未受到影響，而且我們已採取多項程序以確保降低傳播風險。不過——抱歉。再從全國物流的角度來看，我們認為整體而言，我們並未受到 COVID 的影響。當然，某些地方性的情況會對我們造成影響，但總體上我們能夠因應並持續把產品運送到終端客戶。就需求面而言，儘管有 COVID，我們仍持續看到強勁需求，主要由有利的對外經濟條件所驅動，而且我們把產品交付給客戶時受到的影響相對有限。

The last question we received on Mosaic Fertilizantes comes from Joel Jackson. Fertilizantes' second quarter gross margin was more than double the results from the prior 2 years. How much of that gain was market conditions versus foreign exchange tailwinds versus share gain in the market versus a pull-forward of Q3 because of COVID-related logistics concerns?

我們收到的最後一個關於 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的問題來自 Joel Jackson。Fertilizantes 第二季的毛利率是前兩年結果的兩倍以上。這些增幅中，有多少來自市場狀況、多少來自外匯順風、多少來自市占率提升，以及有多少是因 COVID 相關物流疑慮而把第三季需求提前到第二季？

Thanks, Joel. I would summarize our results in the second quarter in Brazil as a couple of factors. First of all, if we looked at the exchange rate, it's probably offset almost perfectly the change in pricing. So what we see in actual results is almost solely the result of our own actions and the reversal of some of the down costs that we saw last year.

謝謝你，Joel。我會用幾個因素來總結我們在巴西第二季的結果。首先，如果看匯率，它大概幾乎完全抵銷了價格變動。因此，我們在實際結果中看到的，幾乎完全是我們自身行動的成果，以及去年所見部分成本下滑的回轉。

Joc, we received a handful of questions on the balance sheet, primarily focused on uses of free cash flow. John Roberts asked: What are the capital allocation priorities moving forward? And can you please discuss your gross debt level, dividend and potential share repurchases?

Joc，我們收到一些關於資產負債表的問題，主要聚焦於自由現金流的用途。John Roberts 問：未來的資本配置優先順序是什麼？以及能否請你談談總負債水準、股利與潛在的股票回購？

And PJ Juvekar asked: Beyond paying down some debt, what could be uses of cash, especially with improved free cash flow in the second half of 2020? Would buyback be approved use of cash over the countervailing duty decision prevents you from buying back stock? Joc, can you talk about capital priorities to address both of these questions?

PJ Juvekar 也問：除了償還部分債務之外，現金還可能有哪些用途，特別是在 2020 年下半年自由現金流改善的情況下？在反補貼稅（countervailing duty）裁決使你無法回購股票之前，回購是否會是核准的現金用途？Joc，你能談談資本優先順序以回應這兩個問題嗎？

Yes. Thank you, gentlemen. Our capital priorities are unchanged, and they continue to be what we've said in the past. Our first priority is to maintain the business. Next priority, maintain investment-grade metrics. And to do that, we have to continue our normal capital plan as we've had. We expect to lower debt by about $1 billion over the next few years, doing so when our bonds come due in the next couple of years. And then continue some of the key projects like the Esterhazy acceleration, K3 acceleration, and then what we have after that, returning capital to shareholders. All 3 of these are depending on future cash flow generation, and capital allocation will not be impacted in any way by the countervailing duties.

是的，謝謝各位。我們的資本優先順序沒有改變，仍然是我們過去所說的。第一優先是維持業務運作。第二優先是維持投資級指標。為了做到這點，我們必須持續執行一如既往的正常資本計畫。我們預期在未來幾年把負債降低約 10 億美元，並在未來幾年債券到期時進行。接著持續推進一些關鍵專案，例如 Esterhazy 加速、K3 加速，然後在那之後，把資本回饋給股東。這三項都取決於未來現金流的產生，而資本配置不會以任何方式受到反補貼稅的影響。

We've also had a couple of questions from a buy-side analyst, and they include: Can you describe what's included in the $610 million of short-term debt that you indicated will be paid in 2020? And does Mosaic still plan to keep about $1 billion cash balance and pay down its 2021 maturity?

我們也收到一位買方分析師的幾個問題，包括：你能描述你們所提到、將於 2020 年償付的 6.10 億美元短期債務包含哪些項目嗎？以及 Mosaic 是否仍計畫維持約 10 億美元的現金餘額，並償還其 2021 年到期債務？

Thanks for the question. At the start of this year, we did increase our cash balance to $1 billion by, first of all, taking out some money from our revolver and executing on some of our inventory financing debt. Since that time, we paid down the revolver, and we will continue to pay down the rest of the $600 million in short-term debt throughout the rest of this year.

謝謝你的問題。今年年初，我們確實把現金餘額提高到 10 億美元：首先，從我們的循環信貸（revolver）中提取部分資金，並執行部分存貨融資債務。自那之後，我們已償還循環信貸，而在今年剩餘期間，我們也將持續償還其餘約 6 億美元的短期債務。

Before we move on to market-related questions, Ben Isaacson asked about our tax rate outlook. Why is your effective tax rate expected to be in the mid- to high 50s? And how should we think about this rate under a Trump or Biden presidency?

在我們轉到市場相關問題之前，Ben Isaacson 問到我們的稅率展望。為什麼你們的有效稅率預期會落在 50% 中段到高段？以及在川普或拜登擔任總統的情境下，我們應該如何看待這個稅率？

Thank you, Ben. Let me start by saying the first part of this is -- and the reason for the tax rate being higher is our income mix between our 3 jurisdictions, Canada, Brazil and the U.S. The details of that, I'm going to actually hand it over to Clint to explain why the negative earnings in the U.S. will create a higher tax rate overall.

謝謝你，Ben。我先說明第一部分——稅率較高的原因在於我們在三個司法管轄區（加拿大、巴西與美國）之間的所得組合。關於細節，我會把問題交給 Clint，請他解釋為什麼美國的負收益會使整體稅率提高。

Yes. Thanks, Joc. And Ben, that's right, it really comes down to an earnings mix phenomenon for us. If you recall, the tax rate is based on GAAP results by jurisdiction. And when you look at the United States, not only is our Phosphates business incorporated into that, but also our corporate G&A, our interest expense and so forth. So there are times when that pretax income in the U.S. turns negative, and that can begin to skew the rate. When you then start to factor in things like some of the foreign currency moves that we've seen and how it affects our mark-to-market and some of the notable items that we have on our schedule, that begins to skew it.

是的，謝謝你，Joc。Ben，你說得沒錯，這確實歸結為我們的獲利組合效應。若你還記得，稅率是依各司法管轄區的 GAAP 結果來計算。當你看美國時，不僅我們的磷酸鹽（Phosphates）業務納入其中，還包括公司層級的管理費用（G&A）、利息費用等等。因此，有些時候美國的稅前所得會轉為負值，這就會開始扭曲稅率。當你再把我們看到的一些外匯變動及其對按市價評價（mark-to-market）的影響，以及我們明細表中一些顯著項目納入考量時，稅率就會進一步被扭曲。

And then as you've seen Brazil improve this year, that's our highest rate tax jurisdiction. So that begins to influence that rate as well. So really the combination of all of those things that's resulting in an unusually high tax rate for this year. And then I'd add 2 things. One, on a longer-term basis, we would expect that effective tax rate to be somewhere in mid- to high 20s. But then I would also call your attention that our cash tax rates and payments are much different than that. As a matter of fact, this year, we expect to end up with a small cash tax refund, so very different than the effective tax rate in our financial statements.

另外，如你所見巴西今年有所改善，而巴西是我們稅率最高的司法管轄區，這也開始影響該稅率。因此，正是上述所有因素的組合，導致今年出現異常偏高的稅率。我再補充兩點：第一，從較長期來看，我們預期有效稅率大約會落在 20% 中段到高段。第二，我也要提醒你，我們的現金稅率與實際繳納的現金稅額與此差異很大。事實上，今年我們預期最後會有一筆小額現金退稅，因此與財務報表中的有效稅率非常不同。

Now let's move on to market-related questions. Mike Piken asked if you could comment on our summer fill programs in the U.S. and where we see downstream inventories in the U.S. at this point.

現在讓我們進入與市場相關的問題。Mike Piken 問您是否可以評論我們在美國的夏季補庫（fill）計畫，以及就目前而言，我們如何看待美國下游庫存水位。

Thank you, Michael. I think we've had fairly successful fill programs in both phosphates and potash here in the U.S. In recent discussions that we've had with our customers, suggest that they're probably in the range of 60% full for the fall season. So there will be increased buying towards the fall season. But for the most part, our customers are in reasonably healthy shape going into that fall.

謝謝你，Michael。我認為我們在美國的磷肥與鉀肥補庫計畫都相當成功。根據我們近期與客戶的討論，顯示他們秋季備貨大概已達到約 60% 的滿載水準。因此，隨著秋季臨近，採購將會增加。但整體而言，我們的客戶在進入秋季時的狀況相當健康。

Steve Byrne is looking for insight into future volumes. How are you trending in each of the segments through the month of July on a year-over-year basis? Do you see volumes higher in the third quarter? And any expectation for volumes for the rest of the year?

Steve Byrne 希望了解未來出貨量的趨勢。以年對年來看，截至 7 月份，各事業部門的走勢如何？第三季的出貨量是否會更高？以及對今年剩餘期間的出貨量有何預期？

Thanks, Steve. I would characterize Q3 as largely having our order books full for both phosphate and potash. And so it will be a matter of delivery and revenue recognition that will determine where we are for quarter 3. But we expect a reasonably good fall in the U.S. and global markets are running well. So for both phosphates and potash, we expect relatively normal Q3 volumes in both. And then for the rest of the year, we should also see a good stable volume.

謝謝，Steve。我會將第三季描述為：我們在磷肥與鉀肥兩方面的訂單簿大致已滿。因此，第三季的表現將取決於交付與營收認列的節奏。不過，我們預期美國秋季需求相當不錯，全球市場也運行良好。所以就磷肥與鉀肥而言，我們預期第三季出貨量都將相對正常。至於今年剩餘期間，我們也應該會看到良好且穩定的出貨量。

Joc, Mark Connelly would like insight into grain and oilseed price implications. How important to Mosaic's earnings outlook are higher grain and oilseed prices? If the current price of corn is sustained through 2020 and soybeans stay at or near their current prices, do you think there is any material room for higher P&K prices in the market?

Joc，Mark Connelly 想了解穀物與油籽價格的影響。較高的穀物與油籽價格，對 Mosaic 的獲利展望有多重要？如果玉米目前的價格能維持到 2020 年、而大豆維持在目前或接近目前的價格，你認為市場上的磷、鉀（P&K）價格是否有任何實質上再上漲的空間？

Thank you, Mark. Clearly, oilseed and grain prices do have implications for us. But in general, the farmers tend to work a lot more on their needs to plant. So what's a lot more important to us is planting intentions, number of acres planted. And remember also, the grain and oilseeds are just a few of the products that we fertilize. So it really depends on what does the whole global market look like and what is the demand for P&K and what supply balance there as opposed to something on the grain and oilseed. It has an indirect impact, but I would say, no direct impact on our pricing.

謝謝你，Mark。很明顯，油籽與穀物價格確實會對我們產生影響。但一般而言，農民更會依據他們的種植需求來運作。因此，對我們更重要的是種植意向、以及實際種植的英畝數。另外也要記得，穀物與油籽只是我們施肥作物中的一部分。所以真正取決於全球整體市場長什麼樣子、P&K 的需求如何、以及供需平衡如何，而不是單看穀物與油籽。它有間接影響，但我會說，對我們的定價沒有直接影響。

Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley wants to know about our market forecast. Given that the last 10 years of P&K shipments show some pattern lumpiness, potash more than phosphate, why not forecast lumpiness going forward rather than just CAGRs?

來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Vincent Andrews 想了解我們的市場預測。鑑於過去 10 年的 P&K 出貨量呈現某種不均勻（lumpy）的模式，且鉀肥比磷肥更明顯，為什麼未來不直接預測這種不均勻性，而只是用複合年成長率（CAGR）來預測？

Thanks, Vincent. We tend to forecast on annual growth simply because some of the other factors that go into the lumpiness of our business are impossible to forecast. And those are really inventory movements globally, and of course, weather. You saw in 2019, the weather impacts in the U.S. made a fundamental difference to the growth rate of both phosphates and potash on a global scale. So we really have to look at it on averages, but recognize that there will be lumpiness as we go forward.

謝謝，Vincent。我們傾向以年度成長來做預測，原因是造成我們業務出貨不均勻的其他因素，有些根本無法預測。主要就是全球庫存移動，以及當然還有天氣。你在 2019 年看到，美國天氣的影響在全球尺度上對磷肥與鉀肥的成長率造成了根本性的差異。因此我們必須以平均值來看，但同時也要認知到，未來仍會出現不均勻的波動。

I'm going to move on to some questions on phosphates. This one is from Ben Isaacson. The benchmark MAP selling price fell by $16 to $314 per tonne, yet Mosaic's average finished product selling price fell by almost 3x that amount or by $44 to $308 from $352. Why? How could we think this -- so how should we think about this relationship going forward?

我接下來要轉到一些關於磷肥的問題。這題來自 Ben Isaacson。基準 MAP 售價下跌 16 美元至每噸 314 美元，但 Mosaic 的平均成品售價卻下跌了幾乎 3 倍，也就是下跌 44 美元，從 352 美元降至 308 美元。為什麼？我們該如何看待這個關係在未來的走勢？

Thanks, Ben. The answer here is simply that the average selling price in Fertilizantes is based on all the components we sell, including urea and potash in the blends, both of which are down significantly. So when you look at that relationship going forward, you have to take into account all 3 products that could be in our blends that we sell.

謝謝，Ben。答案很簡單：Fertilizantes 的平均售價是以我們所銷售的所有組成項目為基礎計算的，其中包含混配（blends）中的尿素與鉀肥，而這兩者的價格都大幅下跌。因此，未來在看待這個關係時，你必須把我們混配產品中可能包含的三種產品都納入考量。

Ben also asked DAP stripping margins have started to improve in July after remaining largely flat throughout the second quarter. Are you seeing this flow through to the Phosphates segment margin?

Ben 也問到：DAP 剝離毛利（stripping margins）在第二季大致持平後，7 月開始改善。你們是否看到這個改善反映到磷肥事業部的利潤率上？

Thank you, Ben. Again, DAP stripping margin is -- we track that because that really is what do we get after the cost of raw materials and transport as revenue. So of course, this flows directly into our margins. An improvement in stripping margin really is almost directly related to our overall profitability.

謝謝你，Ben。再說一次，DAP 剝離毛利——我們追蹤這個指標，是因為它本質上代表：扣除原料與運輸成本後，我們能取得多少營收。因此，這當然會直接反映到我們的利潤率。剝離毛利的改善，幾乎與我們整體獲利能力呈直接關聯。

Adam Samuelson would like to know, what does Mosaic see as the equilibrium prices of U.S. NOLA, DAP and MAP versus key offshore benchmarks?

Adam Samuelson 想知道，Mosaic 認為美國 NOLA 的 DAP 與 MAP 均衡價格，相對於主要海外基準價格應該是多少？

Thank you, Adam. All I can really say there is, if you look at it historically, other than the last, say, 3 years where there's been a real increase in imports, we have seen NOLA prices being similar to other global prices. And I would expect that under a more fair trade market, that's what you would see is you would see the NOLA price being equal to what the prices in other markets adjusted for the transport cost. And that's exactly what we expect will happen after a countervailing duty case if they readjust that market.

謝謝你，Adam。我能說的是：從歷史來看，除了最近大約 3 年進口顯著增加之外，我們看到 NOLA 價格與其他全球價格相近。我預期在更公平的貿易市場下，你會看到 NOLA 價格等同於其他市場價格並依運輸成本做調整。這也正是我們預期在反補貼稅（countervailing duty）案件之後、若市場重新調整時會發生的情況。

Joc, Steve Byrne would like more insight into our global phosphate demand outlook and its relationship to inventory swings. Specifically, what is your estimate of underlying global consumption of phosphate in '29? And was it below the shipments of 71 million tonnes? Did it reflect channel inventory builds?

Joc，Steve Byrne 希望更深入了解我們對全球磷肥需求展望，以及其與庫存波動的關係。具體而言，你對 2019 年全球磷肥的基礎消費量估計是多少？是否低於 7,100 萬噸的出貨量？那是否反映了通路庫存的增加？

Thank you, Steve. If we look at 2019, there was no question that there was a buildup of global inventory, particularly in the U.S. I mean in the U.S., there was a poor season and the imports, in particular, kept coming in. We shut down our Louisiana operation for a number of months last year. And still, the inventory build in the U.S. was very high. Likewise, the Brazilian inventory was probably slightly above normal coming into this year for maybe some of the same reasons. But what I will say is in the first and second quarter of this year, we have largely cleared out all of that inventory and probably have moved from an area of high inventory to a very low inventory in phosphates as we move into the third quarter of this year.

謝謝你，Steve。若看 2019 年，毫無疑問全球庫存確實增加，尤其是在美國。我的意思是，在美國，當年季節表現不佳，而進口——特別是進口——仍持續湧入。我們去年把路易斯安那的營運停產了好幾個月，但美國的庫存增加仍然非常高。同樣地，巴西的庫存在今年初可能也略高於正常水準，原因或許相似。不過我要說的是，在今年第一季與第二季，我們已大致清掉了那些庫存，並且在進入今年第三季時，磷肥庫存可能已從高庫存區間轉為非常低的庫存水位。

Joc, in a related question, he also asked: Are normalized inventory level is the reason for the increased phosphate shipment forecast in 2021?

Joc，相關的另一個問題，他也問：庫存水位正常化是否是 2021 年磷肥出貨預測上調的原因？

Thanks, Steve. Yes. In terms of 2021, what we really see is the inventory levels should be pretty much leveled off, and we expect normal growth in the market as per any other year. So that 2% type annual growth in 2021.

謝謝，Steve。是的。就 2021 年而言，我們看到庫存水位應該會大致趨於平衡，而我們預期市場會像其他年份一樣呈現正常成長。因此，2021 年大概就是那種每年 2% 左右的成長。

Vincent Andrews would like our opinion on farmer economics. He asked, given the recent run-up in DAP prices, are you all concerned about U.S. farmers deferring fall applications?

Vincent Andrews 想了解我們對農民經濟狀況的看法。他問：鑑於近期 DAP 價格上漲，你們是否擔心美國農民會延後秋季施肥？

Thanks, Vincent. Look, our experience has been -- and if you look even at the spring with the COVID uncertainty, that farmers will put fertilizer on their fields according to their needs. And frankly, today, with precision agriculture, they're more likely to put the right amount of fertilizers on every year. So and phosphate prices, frankly, also are a very small piece of the overall cost of running a farm. So I don't believe that most farmers will look at phosphate pricing and have it changed their application. But I'd also highlight that phosphate prices are still very affordable when you look at where grain and oilseed prices are. So as with most fall seasons, we would expect that weather will be the main arbitrator of demand. And with expecting an early crop maturity this year, we expect we should have a good fall.

謝謝，Vincent。你看，我們的經驗是——即使在春季面對 COVID 的不確定性——農民仍會依照作物需求在田裡施肥。坦白說，如今有精準農業，他們更可能每年都施用正確的肥料用量。此外，磷肥價格坦白說也只占農場整體營運成本的一小部分。因此，我不認為大多數農民會因為磷肥價格而改變施肥。不過我也要強調，若對照穀物與油籽價格的位置，磷肥價格仍然非常可負擔。因此，如同多數秋季一樣，我們預期天氣將是需求的主要裁決者。而由於預期今年作物成熟較早，我們預期秋季應該會有不錯的表現。

Joc, we have 3 questions related to China and phosphate. First, Vincent Andrews asked, what do you anticipate will be the Chinese DAP exports in the second half of 2020? And what second half 2020 DAP price does that assume? If DAP prices are higher or lower than your assumption, what would happen to Chinese exports?

Joc，我們有3個與中國及磷酸鹽相關的問題。第一個，Vincent Andrews 問到，您預期2020年下半年中國的DAP出口量會是多少？而這是基於2020年下半年DAP價格的哪個假設？如果DAP價格高於或低於您的假設，中國出口會如何變化？

Thanks, Vincent. Chinese exports over the first half of the year were lower by about 800,000 tonnes from last year. Now our -- the base forecast calls for Chinese exports to end the year about 600,000 tonnes lower. In other words, we expect that international pricing is a little higher. We'll incent a few extra tonnes coming out of China in the second half. And if prices are higher than our expectations, there might be a little bit more upside, but we don't see significant upside. And part of the reason for this is domestic demand is coming in fairly strong as we move into fall. And I think the big issue there will be export availability limitations. Now obviously, if our prices are lower than expectations, the volumes could be even lower than what they are now.

謝謝你，Vincent。今年上半年中國出口量較去年少了約80萬噸。現在我們——基準預測是中國全年出口量將比去年少約60萬噸。換句話說，我們預期國際價格會略高一些，這會在下半年激勵中國多出口一些額外噸數。若價格高於我們的預期，可能還會有一些上行空間，但我們不認為上行幅度會很大。部分原因是，隨著進入秋季，國內需求表現相當強勁。我認為關鍵問題將在於出口可供量的限制。當然，如果我們的價格低於預期，出口量可能會比目前更低。

Joc, Seth Goldstein and Steve Byrne both asked about production. Specifically, what is the status and outlook for reduced phosphate production at specific facilities in China and Tunisia? And do you expect the lower exports over the next several years?

Joc，Seth Goldstein 和 Steve Byrne 都問到產量問題。具體而言，中國與突尼西亞特定設施的磷酸鹽減產現況與展望如何？以及您是否預期未來幾年出口量會較低？

Well, let me hit China first. There's been a well-known shift towards shutting down some of the higher polluting plants, particularly along the Yangtze River, and we've seen some of these. Guizhou Phosphate is shifting production to higher purified phos acid and food-grade phosphates. Some smaller plant shutdowns throughout the year that have resulted in production declines in the first half of the year. In terms of Chinese export volume over the next years, we maintain that Chinese exports will trend lower and we'll establish a new normal. I mean we've now seen what we think is the bottoming of Chinese domestic demand, and we're seeing a lowering of production. So with that, will have to come a lowering of exports as they meet domestic demand. For Tunisia, it would appear that expectations for a plant resurgence of production in 2020 were somewhat overstated. But it's also important to put Tunisia in context. They have produced an average of about 750,000 tonnes of DAP and TSP over the last 5 years. Current protest will certainly lead to shuttering of the rock production. The business plugged them for over a decade, so which means we would expect them to stay about the same run rate as we go forward as well.

好，我先談中國。大家都知道，近年來有一個明顯趨勢：關停一些污染較高的工廠，特別是長江沿線，我們也看到其中一些案例。貴州磷化正把產能轉向更高純度的磷酸以及食品級磷酸鹽。全年也有一些較小工廠關停，導致上半年產量下滑。就未來幾年的中國出口量而言，我們維持看法：中國出口將呈下降趨勢，並形成新的常態。我們認為中國國內需求已經觸底，同時也看到產量下降。因此，為了滿足國內需求，出口勢必也要下降。至於突尼西亞，看起來市場對其2020年工廠產量復甦的預期有些被高估。但也要把突尼西亞放在脈絡中看：過去5年他們DAP與TSP的平均產量約為75萬噸。目前的抗議活動肯定會導致磷礦石生產停擺。該業務已經被拖累了十多年，因此我們也預期未來其運轉率大致維持在相近水準。

Joc, the last section of questions relates to potash global markets. Steve Byrne and Seth Goldstein asked about the impact of palm oil demand on potash. What is the typical lag between movements in palm oil prices and changes in potash demand in Southeast Asia? And has the rebound in palm oil pricing resulted in increased potash demand in Southeast Asia?

Joc，最後一組問題與鉀肥全球市場有關。Steve Byrne 和 Seth Goldstein 問到棕櫚油需求對鉀肥的影響。棕櫚油價格變動到東南亞鉀肥需求改變之間，通常有多長的滯後期？以及棕櫚油價格反彈是否已帶動東南亞鉀肥需求增加？

Thank you, gentlemen. The palm oil demand is important for potash. And what we have seen recently is an improvement in palm oil prices. And we know that for production reasons, they will be adding potash to their palm oil plantations. So we see that as a fairly direct relationship. I wouldn't say we see increased demand, but we see demand that is getting back to its normal levels. In terms of a longer term, export demand and domestic demand for biofuels is helping in terms of optimism for recovery. So all of these things mean that we should see a better demand for potash in the Southeast Asia region, particularly Malaysia and Indonesia.

謝謝兩位。棕櫚油需求對鉀肥很重要。我們最近看到棕櫚油價格有所改善。我們也知道，基於生產因素，他們會在棕櫚油種植園增加施用鉀肥，因此我們認為兩者關係相當直接。我不會說需求已經增加，但我們看到需求正在回到正常水準。從較長期來看，出口需求以及生質燃料的國內需求，有助於提升對復甦的樂觀程度。這些因素都意味著，東南亞地區——特別是馬來西亞與印尼——對鉀肥的需求應該會更好。

Joel Jackson and Ben Isaacson would both like to understand where global potash inventories stand in the various regions, particularly in China.

Joel Jackson 和 Ben Isaacson 都想了解各地區的全球鉀肥庫存水位，尤其是在中國。

Thank you, gentlemen. If we look at China, there's sort of a bifurcation of inventory. We know there's about 3.5 million tonnes at the port. But we believe there's relatively low inventories as we move inland. And so as we're now seeing a strong demand for NPKs in the domestic market, we do expect that the movements out of the port to those NPK plants will start bringing down inventory levels, assuming that the arrivals are about normal levels compared to last year.

謝謝兩位。如果看中國，庫存有點呈現兩極分化。我們知道港口大約有350萬噸，但我們認為往內陸移動時庫存相對偏低。因此，隨著我們現在看到國內市場對NPK的需求強勁，我們確實預期從港口運往那些NPK工廠的出貨將開始拉低庫存水位，前提是到港量與去年相比大致維持正常水準。

Mark Connelly and Steve Byrne are both interested in potash demand growth. What is driving the acceleration in potash demand in your forecast and other specific geographies?

Mark Connelly 和 Steve Byrne 都對鉀肥需求成長感興趣。您的預測中鉀肥需求加速成長的驅動因素是什麼？以及其他特定地區的情況如何？

Thanks. I wouldn't say we're actually forecasting an acceleration of potash demand. Our potash demand growth from a long-term trend is staying fairly steady at what we believe to be around 3%. And if you take 2019 out of it, I think we still stay just on that trend.

謝謝。我不會說我們其實在預測鉀肥需求加速。我們的鉀肥需求成長率，長期趨勢上仍相當穩定，我們認為大約在3%左右。如果把2019年排除，我認為我們仍然大致維持在那個趨勢上。

In a related question, if demand ends up toward the high end of your range, do you see increased supply balance in the market? Or would you expect the market to tighten?

相關的一個問題是，如果需求最終落在您區間的高端，您是否會看到市場供需平衡出現更多供給？還是您預期市場會趨於緊俏？

Well, I guess, this requires 2 things. One, the success of production ramp-ups on the new projects, particularly, I guess, EuroChem's Volgakaliy and Usolskiy. But given the delays we've seen in recent years on these ramp-ups, it would seem that the market should tighten actually if demand comes in at the high end of our expectation.

嗯，我想這取決於兩件事。第一，新專案的產能爬坡是否成功，特別是我想是 EuroChem 的 Volgakaliy 與 Usolskiy。不過，鑑於我們近年看到這些爬坡進度的延遲，如果需求落在我們預期的高端，市場看起來反而應該會收緊。

And the last related question, also, what is the bull case for potash pricing over a 3- to 5-year period?

最後一個相關問題：在3到5年的期間內，鉀肥價格的多頭情境是什麼？

Thanks. There's a number of factors that could create a bull run in potash prices. And the first I've already mentioned, which is slower ramp-up of the projects, particularly the ones in Russia and Belorussia. But what we would really expect is probably a higher utilization rate of the North American assets over the next, say, 3 to 5 years and a more modest rise in prices. That would suggest prices appreciate slightly to where they were maybe in 2018, and utilization of assets goes up at the same time.

謝謝。有多個因素可能促成鉀肥價格的多頭走勢。第一個我已提過，也就是專案爬坡較慢，特別是俄羅斯與白俄羅斯的那些專案。但我們真正預期的，可能是在未來大約3到5年，北美資產的產能利用率會更高，而價格則較為溫和地上升。這意味著價格小幅回升到可能接近2018年的水準，同時資產利用率也會同步提高。

Another potash related question from Adam Samuelson and Ben Isaacson. They're both asking about the disconnect between pricing trends between Brazilian MLP that rallied off-loads in the second quarter versus U.S. and Southeast Asian MLP prices that have continued to be lower. Are strong Brazilian economics enough to offset this weakness in other regions?

Adam Samuelson 和 Ben Isaacson 還有一個與鉀肥相關的問題。他們都在問：巴西MLP價格在第二季隨著出貨量反彈而走揚，但美國與東南亞的MLP價格趨勢仍偏弱、持續較低，兩者之間的背離如何解釋？巴西強勁的經濟性是否足以抵消其他地區的疲弱？

Thanks. Brazilian farm economics are really outstanding at present, which is certainly helping to underpin pricing in that market, and we expect that to continue. For the U.S. and Southeast Asian markets, I think it's important that -- remember that this is a seasonally slow period for potash demand, and that will impact prices. I'd also like to highlight that our summer fill program was extremely well received. And it is typical of commodity markets to necessarily see first a rebound in demand and then prices following after that.

謝謝。巴西目前的農場經濟性確實非常出色，這無疑有助於支撐該市場的價格，我們也預期這種情況會持續。至於美國與東南亞市場，我認為重要的是——請記得，這段期間在季節性上是鉀肥需求較慢的時期，這會影響價格。我也想強調，我們的夏季補庫計畫反應非常好。而在大宗商品市場中，通常會先看到需求回升，之後價格才會跟上。

We have now completed our presubmitted questions. And so now I would like to do is open it up to the audience for live Q&A. Operator?

我們現在已完成預先提交的問題。接下來我想開放給與會者進行即時問答。接線員？

(Operator Instructions) First question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson。

Yes. So I guess I wanted to just follow up on the affordability question, Joc, on phosphates. And on your own kind of affordability metric, that you published, were now above long-term average. And just trying to think about where you would see an upper limit to that? And especially, if you think about next year and farmer income risks from government support programs in the U.S. or lack thereof, given kind of the big farmer support payments that have been experienced both this year and last?

是的。我想我想就磷酸鹽的可負擔性問題再追問一下，Joc。依照你們自己發布的那種可負擔性指標，我們現在已高於長期平均。想請教你認為這個指標的上限大概會在哪裡？特別是考量到明年在美國政府支持計畫（或缺乏支持）下，農民收入可能面臨的風險——畢竟今年和去年都出現了相當可觀的農民補助款。

Thanks, Adam, and welcome. There's certainly a relationship between crop prices and how people feel about the imports. But as you say, support payments from governments and whatnot have done a lot to keep farmer incomes at least stable. And yes, while we're pushing phosphate and potash prices -- probably not potash so much, but certainly phosphates, a little bit closer to that ratio, two things on this, I'd say is, first of all, you've got to look at December '21 prices. And if you look at December '21 prices, I think we -- I think we'd be looking at, what, $3.60 for corn and $9 for bean. So they're going to see some reasonable prices on there if they sold forward into that market. So they'd be incented to get a good crop and use the fertilizer. But in terms of the direct relationship between the 2, I'd say you could easily go a standard deviation above that ratio and not have it materially affect demand.

謝謝你，Adam，歡迎加入。作物價格與人們對進口的觀感之間確實存在關聯。但正如你所說，政府的支持性補貼等措施，在很大程度上讓農民收入至少維持穩定。是的，當我們推動磷酸鹽與鉀肥價格——可能鉀肥沒那麼多，但磷酸鹽確實會——讓它們更接近那個比率時，對此我想說兩點：第一，你得看 2021 年 12 月的價格。如果你看 2021 年 12 月的價格，我想我們——我們看到的會是什麼，玉米每蒲式耳 3.60 美元、大豆每蒲式耳 9 美元。因此，如果他們在那個市場做了遠期銷售，他們會看到一些合理的價格。這會激勵他們種出好收成並使用肥料。但就兩者之間的直接關係而言，我會說，你很容易在那個比率上高出一個標準差，而不會對需求造成實質影響。

Next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne。

Yes. I just wanted to hear whether or not you saw any impact on phosphate imports during the month of July, following the countervailing duty petitions. And just ask for an update on your gypsum sales out of your gypstacks in Brazil. Any update on that?

是的。我只是想了解，在提出反補貼稅申請之後，你們是否在 7 月份看到磷酸鹽進口有任何影響。另外想請你更新一下你們在巴西石膏堆（gypstacks）中的石膏銷售情況。有什麼最新進展嗎？

Sure. Thanks, Steve. First of all, yes, in July, I believe the imports were low in July. I have to get an exact number and get somebody to get back to you on how much that was down. But our understanding -- and we did talk to a lot of customers, and our understanding is certainly the importers who are importing either the OCP or the Russian products, definitely took a step back to understand what the risks might be in terms of them picking up some sort of countervailing duty risk. So we did see a step back in July. Whether they will come back into the market in the next couple of months, I don't know. What we have seen, however, is new products coming in from places like Egypt and Australia and Mexico. So it does say there is some change. I got to ask somebody to give me what was the second part of your question there, Steve, I missed in my writing.

當然。謝謝你，Steve。首先，是的，在 7 月，我相信 7 月的進口量偏低。我得拿到確切數字，請人回覆你下降了多少。但我們的理解是——而且我們也和很多客戶談過——我們的理解是，進口商若是在進口 OCP 或俄羅斯產品，確實會先退一步，去了解他們在承擔某種反補貼稅風險方面可能面臨的風險。因此我們確實在 7 月看到他們退縮了一步。至於接下來幾個月他們是否會回到市場，我不確定。不過我們看到的是，有新產品從埃及、澳洲、墨西哥等地進來。所以這確實顯示出一些變化。我得請人提醒我你問題的第二部分是什麼，Steve，我在做筆記時漏掉了。

The next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson of Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Chris Parkinson。

Great. So you already mentioned you expect Chinese DAP exports should be down, I guess, 600,000 tonnes or so and that you don't really expect a much on a year-on-year basis in terms of Tunisian availability, which is fair. But there have been a few mines over the last couple of years that were kind of in the process or the tail ends of the ramps in Morocco, obviously, Saudi, even Turkey and Egypt. Do you believe that the phosphate market has really felt -- has already felt the full effects of these previous ramps. And now we can just kind of isolate our thought process in terms of new supply on just the Moroccans and Saudis. Just what's your kind of aggregate assessment of the SD over the next, let's say, 2 to 3 years?

很好。你剛才已經提到，你預期中國 DAP 出口應該會下降，我想大約 60 萬噸左右，而且你也不太預期突尼西亞的供應量在年對年基礎上會有太大變化，這很合理。但過去幾年有幾座礦山，某種程度上正處於或接近擴產爬坡的尾聲，例如摩洛哥，當然還有沙烏地，甚至土耳其與埃及。你是否認為磷酸鹽市場已經——已經感受到這些先前擴產爬坡的全部影響？而現在我們可以把對新增供給的思考，基本上只聚焦在摩洛哥與沙烏地？你對未來（比如說）2 到 3 年供需（SD）的整體評估是什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. I think materially, it is all about what's left of the Saudi ramp-up. And assuming they reach their, I think, 2.7 million tonnes was their target for 2020, and there is some debottlenecking and other projects that OCP is expecting to do. I mean those are still yet to come, but -- and maybe a little bit of extra coming out. I saw Phosagro has been exporting or has been producing a little higher number. So there could be some new tonnes coming out of Phosagro. But for the rest of the world, I would say, basically, the closures are more than offsetting any small ramp-ups that we've seen. And overall, it really is now coming down to small increases from the Saudis and then whatever Morocco brings in, in the next couple of years with a little bit of addition from possibly from Phosagro.

是的。謝謝你，Chris。我認為在實質上，關鍵就在於沙烏地擴產爬坡剩下的部分。假設他們達到——我想他們 2020 年的目標是 270 萬噸——而且 OCP 預期還會做一些去瓶頸與其他專案。我的意思是，這些仍尚未到來，但——也許還會有一點額外的增量。我看到 Phosagro 的出口或產量略高一些。所以 Phosagro 可能會有一些新增噸數。但就世界其他地區而言，我會說，基本上，關閉產能所抵消的量，已經超過我們看到的任何小幅擴產。整體而言，現在真的就是取決於沙烏地的小幅增量，以及摩洛哥在未來幾年帶來的供給，再加上可能來自 Phosagro 的一些補充。

Thank you. No further question at this time.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。

Well, if there are no other questions, I'd like to, first of all, say thank you for the questions you brought in. We had a very good set of presubmitted questions, which I thought was very healthy.

那麼，如果沒有其他問題，我想首先感謝大家提出的問題。我們收到一組非常好的預先提交問題，我認為這是非常健康的。

But to conclude our call, I'd like to just reiterate our key themes here. Mosaic generated strong results despite low realized prices for our products. Our long-term transformation efforts are really starting to deliver substantial structural cost savings, and we expect to drive additional savings in the years ahead. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen as we paid down debt and generated strong cash flows. Fertilizer markets continue to improve and prices are rising. We are navigating the COVID-19 situation successfully, with minimal impacts to our business.

不過在結束本次電話會議之前，我想再次重申我們的核心主題。儘管我們產品的實現價格偏低，Mosaic 仍取得強勁的業績。我們長期的轉型努力正開始帶來可觀的結構性成本節省，我們預期未來幾年還會推動更多節省。隨著我們償還債務並產生強勁現金流，我們的資產負債表持續強化。肥料市場持續改善，價格正在上升。我們正成功應對 COVID-19 的情勢，對我們業務的影響降至最低。

So in summary, Mosaic is more resilient and competitive than it has ever been, and we have built significant earnings leverage for a rising price environment. So we are looking forward to continued improvement and continued success on our journey towards being a very competitive company. So thank you for joining the call. Have a great day and we hope to talk to you in person soon.

因此總結來說，Mosaic 比以往任何時候都更具韌性與競爭力，而且我們已為價格上升的環境建立了顯著的獲利槓桿。因此，我們期待持續改善，並在邁向成為一家極具競爭力公司的旅程中持續成功。感謝各位參與本次電話會議。祝各位有美好的一天，也希望不久後能與各位當面交流。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。祝各位有美好的一天。