美盛公司 (MOS) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Mosaic Company's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2021 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

Your host for today's call is Laura Gagnon, Vice President, Investor Relations of The Mosaic Company. Ms. Gagnon, you may begin.

今天會議的主持人是美國美盛公司投資人關係副總裁 Laura Gagnon。Gagnon 女士，請開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our first quarter 2021 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat as well as open Q&A.; Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing and other members of the leadership team will also be available to [take] your question.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2021 年第一季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Joc O'Rourke 提供，接著是爐邊談話以及開放式問答；資深副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland；全球策略行銷副總裁 Jenny Wang 以及其他領導團隊成員也將在場[回答]各位的提問。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release furnished yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於關於未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理階層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述內容出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日提供的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our fourth quarter press release performance data attached as exhibits to yesterday's Form 8-K filing also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們第四季新聞稿中的績效資料（作為昨日提交之 Form 8-K 的附件）亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話交給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our call today. Mosaic delivered excellent results in the quarter, with revenues up almost 30% year-over-year and the gross margin rate at the highest level since early (technical difficulty). And our momentum continues to build higher fertilizer prices driven by very strong global demand, tight supply and excellent agricultural fundamentals, combined with our significantly improved cost structure, lead us to a positive outlook for the remainder of the year.

早安。感謝各位今天加入我們的電話會議。美盛在本季交出優異成績，營收年增近 30%，毛利率達到自（技術問題）以來的最高水準。而我們的動能仍在持續增強：在全球需求非常強勁、供給吃緊與農業基本面優異的帶動下，肥料價格走高；再加上我們顯著改善的成本結構，使我們對今年剩餘期間的展望保持正向。

Laura, let's [move on to] the analysts' questions.

Laura，我們來[進入]分析師的提問。

Joc, we've received several questions about nutrient affordability, its impact on demand and sensitivity to commodity prices. Specifically, how elastic does developed market demand tend to be? And how much application elasticity do you see in emerging markets?

Joc，我們收到幾個關於養分可負擔性、其對需求的影響以及對大宗商品價格敏感度的問題。具體來說，已開發市場的需求彈性通常有多大？而在新興市場，你看到施用量的彈性有多大？

Thank you. Generally speaking, within normal ranges, grower demand for fertilizer is relatively price inelastic, whether that be in developed or emerging markets. Accepting that, changes to demand would then be driven by acreage and by yield expectations. However, growers will look at the return on investment of fertilizer applications and particularly, if prices of crops are elevated. Or conversely, if they're down, they will adjust their rates higher or lower in order to maximize their yield potential. It certainly appears that last year and now this year, we're seeing signs of some of those upward adjustments to application rates.

謝謝。一般而言，在正常區間內，種植戶對肥料的需求相對缺乏價格彈性，無論是在已開發或新興市場皆然。在此前提下，需求的變動將主要由種植面積與單產（yield）預期所驅動。不過，種植戶會評估施肥的投資報酬，尤其是在作物價格處於高檔時；反之，若作物價格下跌，他們會調整施用量的高低，以最大化其產量潛力。看起來去年以及今年，我們確實看到一些施用量上調的跡象。

In India, maximum retail price is set by the government. As such, Indian farmer affordability may be negatively impacted this year.

在印度，最高零售價格由政府設定。因此，今年印度農民的可負擔性可能會受到負面影響。

Joc, a few of our analysts had questions regarding our phosphate sales volumes during the quarter. P.J. Juvekar of Citi and Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley both asked about our sales volumes being higher than our production volumes despite lower inventories and raw material constraints. Did Mosaic draw down further inventory? And will that offset the sulfur impact?

Joc，我們有幾位分析師詢問本季磷酸鹽銷售量。花旗的 P.J. Juvekar 與摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews 都問到：在庫存較低且原料受限的情況下，我們的銷售量卻高於產量。美盛是否進一步去化庫存？而這是否能抵消硫磺的影響？

Thank you, gentlemen. Our inventories do continue to be below typical levels for this time of the year. But you must understand that this is normally the time of the year where the strong spring demand means we will run down our inventory, and that's typical of most years. At the end of the quarter, we certainly had lower-than-normal inventories. However, we also relied on 100,000 tonnes from Ma'aden that flowed through the Phosphates segment.

謝謝兩位。我們的庫存確實仍低於每年此時的典型水準。但各位必須理解，通常每年這個時點因春季需求強勁，我們會消化庫存，這在多數年份都很常見。季末時，我們的庫存確實低於正常水準。不過，我們也仰賴來自 Ma'aden 的 10 萬噸供應，並計入磷酸鹽事業部。

John Roberts of UBS and Joel Jackson of BMO asked for additional color around the sulfur market, specifically, is the sulfur shortage only a North American phenomenon? Or are sulfur prices going up elsewhere? Also, do we think the situation could extend into the second half of the year? And what plans do we have in place to resolve the Q2 sulfur shortage?

瑞銀的 John Roberts 與 BMO 的 Joel Jackson 希望我們補充硫磺市場的更多細節，特別是：硫磺短缺是否僅為北美現象？或是其他地區的硫磺價格也在上漲？另外，我們是否認為此情況可能延續到下半年？以及我們有哪些計畫來解決第二季硫磺短缺？

Thank you, gentlemen. This year, the molten sulfur supply was constrained due to COVID impacts on refineries. And this was exacerbated in that freeze at the February of 2021. So when you ask, is this a local or global issue, certainly, sulfur is tight around the world, but particularly, molten sulfur is very tight right now. So you will see that we actually melted more in our melters than we normally would, and that was actually up 27% from a normal of about 20%. Now we do expect U.S. refinery activity to recover in the second half, which would take us back to more normal levels.

謝謝兩位。今年熔融硫磺供應受限，原因在於 COVID 對煉油廠的影響；而 2021 年 2 月的那次寒潮又使情況惡化。因此你問這是地方性還是全球性問題：硫磺在全球都偏緊，但目前尤其是熔融硫磺非常吃緊。所以你會看到我們在熔硫設備中實際融化的量比平常更多，比例達 27%，而正常大約是 20%。我們確實預期美國煉油活動在下半年回升，屆時將回到較正常的水準。

Joc, Michael Piken of Cleveland Research, Ben Isaacson of Scotia, Andrew Wong of RBC and Steve Byrne of Bank of America, all asked for an update on Canpotex negotiations with China. In particular, they ask that with the domestic potash price in China now well over $100 per tonne higher than the last import contract price and about $100 per tonne above the recent India contract price, what are the implications for a new contract in late 2021? And what might the effect be on 2022?

Joc，Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken、Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson、RBC 的 Andrew Wong 以及美國銀行的 Steve Byrne 都詢問 Canpotex 與中國的談判進度。特別是：目前中國國內鉀肥價格已比上一份進口合約價高出逾每噸 100 美元，且也比近期印度合約價高出約每噸 100 美元，這對 2021 年下半年簽訂新合約有何意涵？以及對 2022 年可能有何影響？

Thank you. Look, Canpotex is committed through quarter 3, as they've said publicly. And we're seeing strong demand in North America, in Brazil, in Southeast Asia, all of which were seeing prices go up. And this price strength is also occurring in China's spot market. So we see all of those markets as having high demand, which is shown by Canpotex' tight supply. And even India now, which was -- had an updated contract is now well out of the money and seems to be outdated. So we see all of these things as very positive for the potash market moving forward. And I expect they will lead to an earlier and more constructive settlement with the Chinese at some point in the fall or early next year.

謝謝。你看，Canpotex 如其公開所述，已承諾供應至第三季。我們看到北美、巴西、東南亞需求強勁，這些地區的價格都在上漲。這種價格走強也出現在中國的現貨市場。因此我們認為所有這些市場需求都很高，並由 Canpotex 的供應吃緊所反映。甚至印度也是如此——其更新後的合約價格現在也已明顯不具吸引力，似乎已過時。我們認為這些因素對未來鉀肥市場都非常正面。我預期這將在今年秋季或明年初某個時間點，促成與中國更早且更具建設性的結算。

Joc, I have a two-part question here. Michael Piken of Cleveland and Adrien Tamagno of Berenberg and Ben Isaacson of Scotia have all asked about Mosaic Fertilizantes. First, do you have guidance for Fertilizantes from a pricing and margin standpoint? Or how should we think about pricing and margin progression at Fertilizantes?

Joc，我這裡有一個兩段式問題。Cleveland 的 Michael Piken、Berenberg 的 Adrien Tamagno 以及 Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson 都詢問 Mosaic Fertilizantes。第一，你們是否能就 Fertilizantes 的價格與利潤率提供指引？或者我們應如何看待 Fertilizantes 的價格與利潤率走勢？

Thank you. While we don't give specific guidance for Mosaic Fertilizantes, we have said that of the pricing sensitivity we provide in our earnings materials for DAP, about 20% of that enterprise impact occurs in Mosaic Fertilizantes.

謝謝。雖然我們不對 Mosaic Fertilizantes 提供具體指引，但我們曾表示：在我們財報資料中針對 DAP 所提供的價格敏感度中，約有 20% 的企業整體影響發生在 Mosaic Fertilizantes。

Now also, we have historically seen distribution margins in the range of $25 to $40 per tonne. We believe that those 2 together should give you the information you need to model our Brazil business.

另外，歷史上我們看到的通路（distribution）利潤率約落在每噸 25 至 40 美元。我們認為這兩點合併起來，應能提供你建立巴西業務模型所需的資訊。

In terms of cost, our quarter 1 was impacted by a few short-term issues related to mine productivity and lower conversion rates, which are temporary in nature and should improve throughout the year. Also remember, there are actions being taken for COVID that will impact our cost short term in Brazil as they are in a fairly serious spot with COVID right now. Finally, depreciation of the Brazilian real has offset the increase in inflationary pressures that we're seeing there.

就成本而言，我們第一季受到一些短期因素影響，與礦場生產力及較低的轉換率相關；這些屬於暫時性問題，並應在全年逐步改善。也請記得，我們在巴西採取的 COVID 因應措施將在短期內推升成本，因為巴西目前的 COVID 情勢相當嚴峻。最後，巴西雷亞爾的貶值已抵消我們在當地看到的通膨壓力上升。

The second part to that question, Joc, was a follow-up. Could you discuss seeming disconnect between the magnitude of price appreciation for MAP versus a much smaller increase in average realized selling prices for Mosaic Fertilizantes sales?

該問題的第二部分，Joc，是一個追問：你能否談談 MAP 價格上漲幅度很大，但 Mosaic Fertilizantes 銷售的平均實現售價上升幅度卻小得多，兩者之間看似不一致的原因？

Thank you. Our average selling price includes blends that have a significant amount of nitrogen, potash and lower-grade phosphate materials in them. A portion of which will vary throughout the season and can have a real impact on our realized pricing. Beyond that, a significant portion of Q1 sales were committed in Q4, which contributed to the pricing lag. And that is typical in Brazil due to logistics constraints in that country.

謝謝。我們的平均售價包含配方肥（blends），其中含有相當比例的氮肥、鉀肥以及較低品位的磷酸鹽材料；其中一部分會隨季節變動，並可能對我們的實現價格造成實質影響。除此之外，第一季相當一部分銷售是在第四季就已承諾，因而造成價格落後（pricing lag）。由於巴西的物流限制，這種情況在當地是很典型的。

Joc, we've received several questions on India. In particular, John Roberts from UBS and Andrew Wong of RBC asked about our outlook for India's agriculture business, fertilizer demand and nutrient affordability resulting from higher retail prices. They would also like to know if COVID is having any impact.

Joc，我們收到幾個關於印度的問題。特別是，瑞銀的 John Roberts 與 RBC 的 Andrew Wong 詢問我們對印度農業業務、肥料需求，以及因零售價格上升而導致的養分可負擔性的展望。他們也想了解 COVID 是否造成任何影響。

Thanks, gentlemen. Look, good monsoons and full (technical difficulty) and even still attractive crop prices continue to point to favorable farmer economics in India. Certainly, COVID is disrupting activity as the country goes into lockdown. And we've seen a bit of a pause in the near-term activity. So we're waiting to see how the country addresses the recent outbreaks.

謝謝，各位先生。你看，良好的季風雨、充足的（技術問題），以及仍具吸引力的作物價格，持續顯示印度農民的經濟狀況有利。當然，隨著全國進入封鎖，COVID 正在擾亂活動。我們也看到近期活動有些暫停。因此，我們正在觀察該國如何應對近期的疫情爆發。

While COVID is a near-term headwind, the underlying demand for nutrients remain significant as indicated by the extremely low inventories and still strong crop prices. We will not speculate on subsidy changes, but believe the government is committed to maintaining domestic food security.

雖然 COVID 在短期內構成逆風，但由於庫存極低且作物價格仍然強勁，對養分的基本需求依然顯著。我們不會臆測補貼變動，但我們相信政府致力於維持國內糧食安全。

Joc, P.J. Juvekar of Citi, Seth Goldstein of Morningstar and Michael Piken of Cleveland Research have all asked for thoughts on Chinese phosphate supply and demand. What are our expectations for Chinese phosphate exports in 2021? And are we concerned that attractive pricing could lead to higher operating rates?

Joc，花旗的 P.J. Juvekar、Morningstar 的 Seth Goldstein，以及 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken 都詢問了對中國磷酸鹽供需的看法。我們對 2021 年中國磷酸鹽出口的預期是什麼？我們是否擔心具吸引力的價格可能導致更高的開工率？

Thank you. Our base case for 2021 shows phosphate exports relatively unchanged, and we expect them to stay at around the 9.3 million tonnes we saw in 2020. Now clearly, and even the latest report show the operating rates in China are up, probably exceeding 80%, but most of that is going to internal demand inside the country. So we have seen so far, exports that are right on our expected target.

謝謝。我們對 2021 年的基本情境顯示磷酸鹽出口大致不變，並預期將維持在 2020 年約 930 萬噸的水準。很明顯地，甚至最新報告也顯示中國的開工率上升，可能超過 80%，但其中大部分將用於國內需求。因此，到目前為止，我們看到的出口量正好符合我們的預期目標。

Also, there has been several structural changes that occurred last year in China. And I'm going to let Jenny just give a little bit of background on some of the major ones there.

另外，去年中國也發生了幾項結構性變化。我會請 Jenny 簡單補充一些背景，說明其中幾個主要變化。

Sure, Joc. We've seen some structural changes in the Chinese phosphate industry since last year. On the supply side, the Chinese largest producer, BPC, they have shifted their production from producing DAP/MAP fertilizer to other industrialized use of P2O5. For example, they have shifted production to purified cost assets not only for use of -- in the food industry, but also in the emerging growth of electrical vehicle and 5G stations demand to the batteries. We see this is going to continue in 2021 and going forward. Therefore, we are going to see less P2O5 to be produced at DAP and MAP.

好的，Joc。自去年以來，我們看到中國磷酸鹽產業出現一些結構性變化。在供給端，中國最大的生產商 BPC 已將其產量從生產 DAP/MAP 肥料轉向其他工業化的 P2O5 用途。例如，他們將產能轉向純化成本資產，不僅用於——食品產業，也用於電動車與 5G 基站需求帶動的電池新興成長。我們認為這種趨勢將在 2021 年及未來持續。因此，我們將看到用於生產 DAP 與 MAP 的 P2O5 產量減少。

The other change is really on the demand side, domestic phosphates tax growing in 2020, which has tipped most of the increased production in Q1 at home. Therefore, we see really little export increases in the first quarter. Over to you, Joc.

另一個變化主要在需求端，2020 年國內磷酸鹽稅負上升，使得第一季增加的產量大多留在國內。因此，我們看到第一季出口增加幅度非常有限。交給你了，Joc。

Joc, following on this topic, John Roberts and Ben Isaacson both asked about the marginal cost phosphate producers, specifically have costs for marginal producers tracked with phosphate pricing?

Joc，延續這個主題，John Roberts 和 Ben Isaacson 都詢問邊際成本磷酸鹽生產商的情況，具體來說，邊際生產商的成本是否跟隨磷酸鹽價格變動？

Thank you. Price increases for the integrated producers have largely outpaced production cost increases, including those in China, to the point that most Chinese producers there are experiencing good margins despite higher raw material costs. So now, the marginal cost producers are predominantly the nonintegrated producers in India and particularly those that are reliant on imported phosphoric acid. Their DAP production costs at the new Q2 phosphoric acid contract price of $998 per tonne is about $615 per tonne, or about $50 per tonne higher than the Indian imported DAP price.

謝謝。整合型生產商的價格上漲幅度大多已超過生產成本的上升，包括中國在內，已達到多數中國生產商即使原料成本提高仍能維持良好利潤的程度。因此，目前邊際成本生產商主要是印度的非整合型生產商，尤其是依賴進口磷酸的業者。以第二季新的磷酸合約價每噸 998 美元計算，他們的 DAP 生產成本約為每噸 615 美元，約比印度進口 DAP 價格高出每噸 50 美元。

Joc, we have two questions on our global distribution businesses. First, Mark Connelly from Stephens asked what a good across-the-cycle margin assumption for distribution is now given our operational improvements and growth?

Joc，我們有兩個關於全球通路（distribution）業務的問題。首先，Stephens 的 Mark Connelly 問到，考量我們的營運改善與成長，目前通路業務在景氣循環各階段（across-the-cycle）的合理毛利假設是多少？

Thank you, Mark. Historically, we've targeted around $25 a tonne for our distribution business, but we have seen that improve with economies of scale and efficiencies. And we've seen that margin expand recently. Scale matters, and this has led to this quarter's margin of $40 a tonne and even higher for our combined business in India and China.

謝謝你，Mark。歷史上，我們對通路業務的目標大約是每噸 25 美元，但隨著規模經濟與效率提升，我們看到表現有所改善，且近期毛利擴大。規模很重要，這也帶動本季毛利達到每噸 40 美元，而我們在印度與中國的合併業務毛利甚至更高。

Andrew Wong of RBC also asked what China and India distribution contribute to earnings?

RBC 的 Andrew Wong 也問到，中國與印度的通路業務對獲利的貢獻是多少？

Thank you, Andrew. In this quarter, we had a combined gross margin of the 2 businesses that sat around $30 million. And -- but we have to understand that, that margin was enhanced by the upward trajectory of phosphate and potash, which allows for profit from the inventory that was held by those businesses.

謝謝你，Andrew。本季我們兩項業務合計的毛利約為 3,000 萬美元。不過需要理解的是，該毛利受惠於磷酸鹽與鉀肥價格的上行趨勢，使這些業務持有的庫存得以產生庫存收益。

Joc, we have a few questions on free cash flow generation and capital allocation. First, Vincent Andrews asked why net income increased by $300 million quarter-over-quarter, but cash flow from operations only increased by $130 million. What are the drivers in cash flow from operations this year versus last?

Joc，我們有幾個關於自由現金流產生與資本配置的問題。首先，Vincent Andrews 問到，為何淨利季對季增加 3 億美元，但營運現金流僅增加 1.3 億美元。今年相較去年，營運現金流的驅動因素是什麼？

Thank you, Vincent. I'm going to hand this straight over to Clint to talk about our cash flow.

謝謝你，Vincent。我會直接把這題交給 Clint，請他談談我們的現金流。

Thanks, Joc. I think there are -- specific to the year-over-year, I think a large part of that is inventory movements between the 2 years. Last year, we were -- if you recall, we were -- we had very significant inventories, and we're liquidating some of those excess inventories. Where this year, our inventory is built by about $180 million mostly in Brazil and Canada. So I think a year-over-year comparison, that's what's driving a lot of it. But also recall that every year during the first quarter, there are some pretty meaningful accruals that are actually paid out in the first quarter. Those accruals primarily being some tax accruals from the previous year that actually pay out and hit our free cash flow in the first quarter of every year as well as our short-term incentive accruals that again were accrued the previous year, but paid out in the first quarter of every year. So that's just something to keep in mind that are recurring things in the first quarter each year.

謝謝，Joc。我認為——就年對年而言，其中很大一部分來自兩年之間的庫存變動。去年，如果你還記得，我們——我們有非常可觀的庫存，並且正在去化其中一部分過剩庫存。今年則是我們的庫存增加了約 1.8 億美元，主要在巴西與加拿大。因此，我認為年對年的比較，這是驅動很大一部分差異的原因。另外也請記得，每年第一季都會有一些相當可觀的應計項目在第一季實際支付。這些應計項目主要是前一年度的部分稅款應計，會在第一季支付並影響我們每年第一季的自由現金流；以及短期激勵的應計，同樣是前一年提列、但在每年第一季支付。所以這些都是每年第一季會重複出現、需要留意的事項。

Second related question comes from Ben Isaacson of Scotia who asks if Mosaic has revised its thoughts on capital allocation, given the strong free cash flow Mosaic will generate this year, especially as K3 CapEx line is down?

第二個相關問題來自 Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson，他問到：鑑於 Mosaic 今年將產生強勁的自由現金流，尤其是 K3 資本支出（CapEx）項目下降的情況下，Mosaic 是否已修正對資本配置的想法？

Thank you, Ben. The simple answer here is no, we are not changing our priorities. We continue to have a balanced approach to capital allocation, which balances debt repayment, return to shareholders and investing in the business in high-return, quick payback projects. And there's a couple of things I'd like to highlight here.

謝謝你，Ben。這裡的簡單答案是：沒有，我們不會改變優先順序。我們仍採取平衡的資本配置方式，在償還債務、回饋股東，以及投資於高報酬、回收期短的專案之間取得平衡。我想在這裡強調幾點。

Earlier this year, we increased the dividend by 50%. We've committed to paying down $450 million of long-term debt that comes due in November. And the other piece is we've had a number of really good return projects in our transformation. And we continue to invest small but meaningfully in those high-return, quick payback projects. So we completely remain committed to doing exactly what we've said all along, which is balancing off all of our positions. And frankly, that's what our investors have said they expect of us.

今年稍早，我們將股利提高了 50%。我們也承諾償還 4.5 億美元、將於 11 月到期的長期債務。另一部分是，我們在轉型計畫中有多個回報非常好的專案。我們持續以小額但具實質意義的方式，投資於這些高報酬、回收期短的專案。因此，我們完全致力於一如既往地做我們一直所說的事，也就是在各項立場之間取得平衡。坦白說，這也是投資人表示他們對我們的期待。

Thank you. That ends our fireside chat. Now I would like to open the phone lines up for any further questions from the audience.

謝謝。這結束了我們的爐邊談話。現在我想開放電話線，讓聽眾提出任何進一步的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

（接線員指示）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne。

You have reportedly some forward sales into the third quarter of MAP and DAP at prices with the [5] in the front that seems like a fairly lofty price. But I have no idea whether the volume is really light. Can you comment on how much forward sales you have into third quarter right now? And maybe compare that to historical levels, are you seeing the distribution channel more interested in building inventories even at these prices than normal? Or are the high prices causing kind of a pull back and a wait-and-see approach?

據報導，你們有一些 MAP 和 DAP 的遠期銷售延伸到第三季，價格是以「5」開頭，看起來是相當高的價格。但我不確定成交量是否其實很小。你能評論一下目前你們第三季的遠期銷售量有多少嗎？並且也許跟歷史水準比較一下：你們是否看到通路端即使在這些價格下，仍比平常更有興趣建立庫存？還是高價格導致某種回撤，採取觀望的策略？

Standby, we've lost connection to the group. We will be right back.

請稍候，我們與團隊的連線中斷了。我們馬上回來。

(technical difficulty)

（技術問題）

Hello, operator. Are we back?

你好，接線員。我們回來了嗎？

All right, perfect. And Steve Byrne, your line is now open. You may ask your question, please.

好的，完美。Steve Byrne，您的線路現在已開通。請提問。

Okay. I guess you didn't like that question, Joc. Do you want me to run it by you again?

好吧。我猜你不喜歡那個問題，Joc。你要我再問一次嗎？

I would love you to, I think I got 2 words into it. So it wasn't anything about your question. We love your questions.

我很樂意，我想我只聽到前兩個字。所以完全不是你的問題。我們很喜歡你的問題。

Okay. It's really about your forward order book. There's some reported sales of phosphate, both MAP and DAP in mid-500s, a short tonne into the third quarter, how much volume have you sold forward? And maybe more broadly, how would you characterize the demand outlook into the fall at this point relative to historical levels? [Is the ag] cycle causing that distribution channel to aggressively want to rebuild inventories? Or is there risk that we could see a pull back and more of a wait and see until later in the year?

好的。主要是關於你們的遠期訂單簿。有一些報導指出磷酸鹽（MAP 與 DAP）在每短噸 500 多美元、延伸到第三季的銷售，你們已提前賣出多少量？更廣泛地說，就目前而言，你們會如何描述進入秋季的需求展望，相較於歷史水準是如何？【是否農業】景氣循環使通路端想要積極重建庫存？或者是否存在風險，我們可能會看到回撤，並在今年稍晚之前採取更多觀望？

Yes. Thanks, Steve. And again, I apologize for the loss of connection there for a few seconds. In terms of the forward order book, if you will, I suspect what you're referring to is, I think, late last week, we started to have people come to us with summer fill needs. So the spring season is basically finished from our perspective. And now the -- some of the larger retailers have come to us looking for positioning material for the fall. It is a little early for a fall program. And frankly, we think the prices were -- we expected some little dip in prices as you go into the summer lull. But with the tightness that is in the market globally and then in North America, we're starting to see people come to the market earlier. So we will look at this as a very good sign and a good sign for an early and aggressive fall application season.

是的。謝謝你，Steve。再次為剛才中斷連線幾秒鐘致歉。就遠期訂單簿（如果你這麼稱呼的話）而言，我猜你指的是——我想是上週稍晚，我們開始有人帶著夏季補貨需求來找我們。所以從我們的角度看，春季旺季基本上已經結束了。現在——一些較大型的零售商來找我們，想為秋季做備貨與布局。對秋季方案來說，這確實有點早。坦白說，我們原本預期進入夏季淡季時價格會小幅回落一些。但在全球市場以及北美市場供應偏緊的情況下，我們開始看到客戶更早進場。因此我們會把這視為非常好的訊號，也代表秋季施用季可能會更早開始且更積極。

Next question we have from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Adam Samuelson。

Maybe along a similar line, Joc. Just trying to think about your phosphate realizations and the gap in your -- kind of what you're talking about in terms of your second quarter price improvement versus what we're seeing in pricing out of Tampa or NOLA, it seems like the benchmark prices have gone up more. Is that a function of the volume shortfall and precommitted tonnes? I'm just trying to make sure we're understanding, the gap there seems to be wider versus the published benchmarks than history?

Joc，可能是類似的問題。我想釐清你們磷酸鹽的實現價格，以及你提到第二季價格改善幅度，和我們在坦帕或 NOLA 看到的定價之間的落差；看起來基準價格上漲得更多。這是否是因為出貨量不足以及先前已承諾的噸數所致？我只是想確認我們的理解：相較於歷史，這個與已公布基準之間的差距似乎更大？

Yes. Thanks, Adam. Well, I think there's a couple of things there. Of course, there was great demand earlier in the spring season than usual, I think, because of the low inventories we started off with. But -- so there is always a big lag in this as we sell early Q1, even Q4, we're not rev racking them until well into this quarter. So there's always that, and then there's the people who are buying early, and that's when they -- when the prices get set when they buy. So If we look at the ending price or the high price of in the [590s], it was only there for a short period of time, and it was probably for the just-in-time deliveries as opposed to the people who'd plan better. So we expect now we're going to see Q3 average [netbacks] rise again as we sell into the summer fill. And basically, we'll move into the fall with that. And we don't have much lower-price carryover anymore so the lag will decrease.

是的。謝謝你，Adam。我想這裡有幾個因素。當然，春季旺季的需求比往常更強，我想是因為我們一開始的庫存偏低。不過——這裡一向存在很大的時間落差：我們在第一季初、甚至第四季就賣出去的量，要到本季中後段才會反映在營收上。所以一直都有這個因素；另外，提前採購的人是在他們下單時就把價格鎖定了。若我們看期末價格或高點在[590 多]的水準，那只維持了很短一段時間，而且可能主要是即時交貨（just-in-time）的訂單，而不是那些規劃較完善的客戶。因此我們預期，隨著我們在夏季補貨期間持續銷售，第三季平均[淨回收價]會再上升，基本上也會帶著這個趨勢進入秋季。而且我們現在幾乎沒有低價結轉量了，所以這種落差會縮小。

The next question comes from the line of John Roberts from UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 John Roberts。

It sounds like you're not thinking about any big investments. But since conditions are improving, when that time comes, do you think it will first be in potash or first in phosphate? Or the distribution acquisition? Or maybe back in -- further back integration into ammonia? Where do you think your big opportunity comes from?

聽起來你們沒有在考慮任何大型投資。但既然景氣正在改善，等到那個時點來臨時，你認為會先投資在鉀肥還是先投資在磷酸鹽？或是通路收購？或者再往後延伸——進一步往上游整合到氨？你認為最大的機會會來自哪裡？

Yes. Well, look, the way I would probably characterize this is I'd like to see the money in the bank before we talk about how we're going to spend it. So our first priority is continue to be that. We've talked about the paying down debt. We've talked about the priorities being the returning money to shareholders. And we're not going to rush out and spend a bunch of money on anything until -- till and if the right opportunity comes where we believe that we can add real value and get an extraordinary return for the shareholders. So I wouldn't think about any of those 3 as being our priority. I think we'd look at all opportunities, but they have to have a great risk return -- risk-adjusted return.

是的。嗯，我大概會這樣描述：在我們談要怎麼花錢之前，我希望先看到錢確實進到銀行帳上。所以我們的第一優先仍然是這個。我們談過償還債務，也談過優先事項是把資金回饋給股東。在——直到、且除非出現合適的機會，我們相信能夠創造真正的價值並為股東帶來超額報酬之前，我們不會急著在任何事情上砸一大筆錢。所以我不會把你提到的那三項中的任何一項視為我們的優先順序。我們會看所有機會，但必須具備很好的風險報酬——也就是風險調整後報酬。

The next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar from Citi.

下一個問題來自 Citi 的 P.J. Juvekar。

Yes. One of my questions is if you look at OCP and Russians, at today's prices, they can import here, pay the CBD and still make more money than what they did a couple of years ago when they were exporting a lot. Do you expect that those volumes to come in here as the market remains tight?

是的。我其中一個問題是，如果你看 OCP 和俄羅斯供應商，以今天的價格，他們可以進口到這裡、支付 CBD，仍然能賺到比幾年前大量出口時更多的錢。你是否預期在市場仍然吃緊的情況下，那些量會進到這裡來？

Yes. Thanks, P.J. Let's start by saying there have been a number of new importers into the U.S. such that I think quarter 1 volume of imports into the U.S. were pretty much on par with what they were here. So it's not that we've got less imports, it's just we have different importers or different people coming into this market.

是的。謝謝你，P.J. 先說明一下：進入美國市場的新進口商有不少，因此我認為第一季進口到美國的量，基本上與過去差不多。所以不是我們進口變少了，而是進口商不同了，或是進入這個市場的玩家不同了。

In terms of OCP and the Russians, I mean, they're welcome to come into this market, but it doesn't really make sense with an OCP with a 20% tariff that they wouldn't go to a market, another market like India or whatever, which is not being tariffed right now. So I think they'll go to where their profits are the highest, which would not be North America at this point. There's other markets with the same price without the tariff.

至於 OCP 和俄羅斯方面，我的意思是，他們當然歡迎來到這個市場，但對 OCP 來說，在有 20% 關稅的情況下，他們不去其他市場（例如印度或其他目前未被課稅的市場）其實不太合理。我認為他們會去利潤最高的地方，而就目前而言不會是北美。其他市場在相同價格下沒有關稅。

We have the next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

In terms of a capital allocation, the lockup for the Vale shares have been over for quite some time. How much priority do you put on maybe saving some cash, getting some dry powder to kick out those shares -- to clean up the share in 1 day?

就資本配置而言，Vale 持股的禁售期早就結束一段時間了。你們會把多少優先順序放在也許保留一些現金、準備一些「乾粉」，以便把那些股份買下來——在一天之內把股權結構整理乾淨？

Yes. Thanks, Joel. Well, I think we said before that we would certainly look at participating if Vale shares came to the market. And I guess the way I would look at that is, although they're really no different than buying back anyone else's shares, the reason for participating would be more to make sure that the -- that there was a more orderly and less disruptive impact on the market. So we think we would participate, we'll participate based on our cash position at the time. And we'll look at it at the moment. At this stage, we don't have official word from Vale on what they're going to do with those shares or when. So -- but it will be public, they'll be the ones to tell us when they're going to sell them. And if they do, we'll certainly look at how much and how aggressively we participate.

是的。謝謝你，Joel。我想我們之前說過，如果 Vale 的股份進到市場上，我們當然會考慮參與。我看待這件事的方式是：雖然那其實和回購任何其他人的股份沒有本質差異，但之所以參與，更多是為了確保——確保對市場的影響更有秩序、也較不具破壞性。所以我們認為我們會參與；至於參與程度，會取決於當時的現金部位，我們會在那個時點評估。目前我們還沒有收到 Vale 對他們打算如何處理那些股份或何時處理的正式訊息。所以——但那會是公開資訊，會由他們告訴我們何時要賣。如果他們真的賣，我們一定會評估要參與多少、以及參與得多積極。

Next question comes from the line of Mark Connelly from Stephen.

下一個問題來自 Stephen 的 Mark Connelly。

Joc, I was hoping you could talk to us a little bit more about your aspirations for biologicals. We usually see (inaudible) chem companies focused on that. You've got a couple of partnerships now, you talked about nitrogen fixing soil enhancements. Can you give us a sense of how broad your interest there goes because those things really run the gamut?

Joc，我希望你能再多談一點你們對生物製劑（biologicals）的企圖心。通常我們看到（聽不清）化工公司會專注在這一塊。你們現在有幾個合作夥伴關係，也談到固氮的土壤改良。你能否讓我們了解你們在這方面的興趣範圍有多廣？因為這些產品的範疇其實非常大。

Yes. Thanks, Mike. But look, what we're looking at with that is how do we extend our product lines, how do we use our beneficial distribution system. I mean we've got a big distribution system, for instance, in Brazil, where we can really help these products get to market. But I would say, look, it's early days. We are making some small, but well thought out investments. And what we're doing right now is trying to fill a pipeline, and that pipeline will be filled over time. And if you think about it, no different than the MicroEssentials, which took years to develop, these will take years to develop.

是的。謝謝你，Mike。不過你看，我們在這方面思考的是：我們要如何延伸產品線、如何運用我們有利的通路系統。我的意思是，我們有很大的通路系統，例如在巴西，我們確實能幫助這些產品進入市場。但我會說，現在還在很早期。我們正在做一些小規模、但經過深思熟慮的投資。而我們目前在做的是試著把產品管線（pipeline）建立起來，這條管線會隨時間逐步充實。你想想看，這和 MicroEssentials 一樣，後者花了好幾年才開發完成，這些也會需要好幾年。

I think Anuvia's -- or our Sus-Terra product is now just going to market. We would expect our Sound products to go to market in the next, I guess, year or 2. And then our AgBiome would go to market probably in the year after that. So I mean, these are long-term small investments that are likely to do well over time, but we have to get into it first.

我想 Anuvia 的——或我們的 Sus-Terra 產品現在正要進入市場。我們預期我們的 Sound 產品會在接下來大概 1 到 2 年內上市。然後我們的 AgBiome 可能會在再下一年左右上市。所以我的意思是，這些都是長期的小型投資，隨時間推進很可能會有不錯的表現，但我們必須先切入這個領域。

(Operator Instructions) Next question comes from the line of Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg.

（接線員指示）下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Adrien Tamagno。

A question on the Phosphate division, please. Can you comment on expected evolution of utilization rates of U.S. phosphate assets going forward?

請問關於磷酸鹽事業部的問題。你能否評論一下，未來美國磷酸鹽資產的產能利用率（utilization rates）預期會如何演變？

Sorry, I missed -- utilization, the utilization rate, did you say, of phosphate? Yes. Look, the U.S. is a relatively stable, mature market. But what we are seeing and particularly with the advent of the precision agriculture, actually, the farmers are really looking hard at what they need to do in terms of putting better fertilizers, better technology into their crops. And one of the things that's benefiting from that is probably a higher usage of phosphate fertilizers and particularly our MicroEssentials, which is an [efficiency] improving fertilizer.

抱歉，我漏聽了——你是說利用率、磷酸鹽的產能利用率嗎？是的。你看，美國是一個相對穩定、成熟的市場。但我們看到的情況是，特別是隨著精準農業的興起，農民其實非常仔細地在評估他們需要做什麼，才能在作物上投入更好的肥料與更好的技術。而其中受惠的一點，可能就是磷酸鹽肥料的使用量提高，尤其是我們的 MicroEssentials，這是一種能提升[效率]的肥料。

We have a follow-up question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

我們有一個後續問題，來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson。

Joc, I was wondering just with the improving kind of market outlook in the potash space, how you maybe kind of restarting or bringing back some of the idled Colonsay capacity and what it would take from the market to think about bringing that capacity back on?

Joc，我想請教，隨著鉀肥市場展望改善，你們可能會如何重新啟動或恢復先前閒置的 Colonsay 產能？以及市場需要達到什麼條件，才會讓你們考慮把那部分產能重新拉回來？

Yes. Thanks, Adam. That's an important question that we're spending actually a fair bit of time on right now because the demand for [potash] has been strong. Now look, we fully expect to meet the demand of our customers, and we're seeing an increased demand, particularly internationally. So when we can legitimately bring back Colonsay because it's got a price for enough, we expect price for long enough, we'll be doing just that. And right now, we're able to supply our needs through our ramping up K3 and our Bell Plaine. But there will be a time soon or in the next year or 2, I suspect, where Colonsay may be required, but it will also require a sustained price, probably a little higher than what it is even today.

是的，謝謝你，Adam。這是一個重要的問題，我們目前確實花了不少時間在研究，因為對[鉀肥]的需求一直很強勁。你看，我們完全預期能滿足客戶需求，而且我們看到需求增加，尤其是在國際市場。因此，當我們能夠合理地把 Colonsay 重新啟動，因為價格已經足夠高、而且我們也預期價格能維持足夠長的時間，我們就會這麼做。目前，我們可以透過 K3 的爬坡增產以及 Bell Plaine 來供應我們的需求。但我猜很快、或在未來 1 到 2 年內，Colonsay 可能就會需要派上用場；不過這也需要價格能持續維持，可能還要比今天的水準再高一些。

We have the next question comes from the line of Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg.

下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Adrien Tamagno。

Sory, earlier, I was referring to the utilization of your own operations in Florida, not in the market. It was down to 77% in Q1 -- yes.

抱歉，先前我指的是你們在佛羅里達自有營運的產能利用率，不是市場的。第一季降到 77%——是的。

Yes. Yes, our expectations, Adrien, are that we will run those plants probably pretty hard for the next 6, 9 months because -- and the limit will be, like we've said earlier, I think the limit to production may be, at least in the near term, will be the sulfur availability. So we expect to run those with allowing for turnarounds and regular maintenance, but we expect to run those close to full capacity.

是的。是的，Adrien，我們的預期是接下來 6 到 9 個月會讓那些工廠維持相當高的運轉強度，因為——而限制因素會是，如同我們先前提到的，我認為至少在短期內，產量的限制可能會是硫磺供應。因此，我們預期在考量歲修與例行維護的情況下，仍會讓那些工廠接近滿載運轉。

(Operator Instructions) Next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

（接線員指示）下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Given your sulfur shortages, you said that your second quarter tonnes would be about equal to your production. What's your current level of production? And then secondly, in terms of the tariffs on phosphate in the United States, can they be changed over the next few years? Or are they in place for the next 5 years as a base case?

鑑於你們的硫磺短缺，你們說第二季的銷售噸數大約會與產量相當。你們目前的產量水準是多少？第二個問題是，關於美國對磷酸鹽的關稅，未來幾年是否可能改變？還是以基本情境來看，會維持接下來 5 年？

Okay. So yes, let me answer, first of all, I think our sales in last quarter was about 2.1 million tonnes of which -- and I think production was in the range of the 1.9 million tonnes. I think what we can be looking at in the second quarter probably is slightly down from that. We may drop inventory slightly, but I would have expected that same range in that 2 million tonne mark would be probably about where our production will be, exempting what we're predicting for sulfur limitations. And recognize those will meet sales.

好的。是的，我先回答。首先，我想我們上季的銷量大約是 210 萬噸，其中——我想產量大約在 190 萬噸的區間。我認為第二季可能會比那個水準略低一些。我們可能會小幅降低庫存，但我原本預期產量大概仍會在 200 萬噸左右的區間，前提是不把我們對硫磺限制的預測因素納入。並且請注意，這些產量將會用來滿足銷售。

The second -- sorry, Jeff, just repeat your second part of your question, I was rushed to write it down. John, what was the second question?

第二個——抱歉，Jeff，你把第二部分的問題再重複一次，我剛才急著記下來。John，第二個問題是什麼？

Next question comes from the line of...

下一個問題來自……

[Can you] repeat the question, Jeff? Let me finish, sorry, the CBD question. I lost -- (technical difficulty) down quick enough. So in terms of the CBD, there is a yearly review of that amount and even as we move forward, there is an opportunity for some level of a review of those, both the damages and of the actual numbers. And so there could be some change from either the -- from the Department of Commerce in terms of what they look. And we believe we have actually good reasoning why the CBD rates actually should be higher. So we'll see what happens there. But I suspect there wouldn't be major changes in that in the next year or two. But after that, there will be annual reviews that will tell us whether they continue or whether they can be modified.

[你能]再重複一次問題嗎，Jeff？讓我先把剛才的 CBD 問題回答完。抱歉，我沒——（技術問題）記得不夠快。所以就 CBD 而言，那個金額每年都會審查，而且即使往後推進，也有機會在某個程度上進行複核，包括損害以及實際數字本身。因此，商務部（Department of Commerce）在其審視內容上，可能會出現一些變動。我們也相信我們其實有充分理由，認為 CBD 稅率應該更高。我們就看看後續發展。但我猜在未來一兩年內不會有重大變化。不過之後會有年度審查，將告訴我們它們是否會延續，或是否可以被調整。

And we had last question comes from the line of Rikin Patel from Exane.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Exane 的 Rikin Patel。

Just one on potash, with your upgraded shipment guidance for 69 million tonnes to 71 million tonnes, I'm just curious what sort of puts and takes are required to get you to that 71 million tonnes on the upper end? And then maybe just more broadly speaking, on the Phosphate business, given ammonia is a key input over there longer term, I'm just curious how you think about decarbonizing that production process. And any thoughts around green ammonia and how that might factor into your thinking going forward?

我只有一個關於鉀肥的問題：你們把出貨指引上調到 6,900 萬噸至 7,100 萬噸，我想了解要達到上緣 7,100 萬噸，需要哪些正負因素的配合？另外更廣泛地談磷酸鹽業務，鑑於氨是那邊長期的關鍵投入，我想請教你們如何看待該生產流程的去碳化。以及對綠氨（green ammonia）有何想法，未來它可能如何納入你們的考量？

Okay. Thanks, Rikin. Well, let me start with our potash. If we look at the expectations on potash this year, I'd start by saying the North American demand appears to be very strong, and that's one of the gain areas. Brazil will be strong. Again, we're expecting record use of fertilizer in Brazil [it seems] year after year. We're seeing a big rebound, let's call it, in Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, Malaysia with their palm oil, but all the way across Southeast -- all the way across Asia, we're seeing good demand. And again, probably the only place where it will be flat year-on-year as probably going to be India. And although we expect a decrease in phosphate use, we sort of expect (technical difficulty) use in potash. So overall, that would be the -- those would be the drivers. And if those do better, we could get up to the 71%. Otherwise, we'll probably be more in that 69% to 70% range is kind of our base case.

好的，謝謝你，Rikin。我先從鉀肥談起。如果我們看今年對鉀肥的預期，我會先說北美需求看起來非常強勁，這是其中一個成長區域。巴西也會很強。再一次，我們預期巴西的肥料使用量似乎年年創新高。我們看到東南亞出現明顯反彈，尤其是印尼、馬來西亞的棕櫚油相關需求，但不只是東南亞——整個亞洲的需求都不錯。而且，可能唯一會與去年持平的地方大概是印度。雖然我們預期磷酸鹽使用量會下降，但我們某種程度上預期（技術問題）鉀肥使用量會增加。總體而言，這些就是驅動因素。如果這些表現更好，我們就可能達到 71%。否則，我們的基本情境大概會落在 69% 到 70% 的區間。

In terms of decarbonization, if you will, we've set some fairly aggressive ESG targets. We said we would reduce our greenhouse gases by about 20%. Our -- sorry, we would decrease our greenhouse gases by 20%. A lot of what we're doing there involves how we're running our phosphate businesses. We've put a lot of effort and resources into how we can use recycled heat to make power. And over time, we see that, along with just other uses to use less power, et cetera.

就去碳化而言，我們設定了一些相當積極的 ESG 目標。我們說要把溫室氣體減少約 20%。我們——抱歉，我們會把溫室氣體降低 20%。我們在這方面做的很多事情，涉及我們如何營運磷酸鹽業務。我們投入了大量努力與資源，研究如何利用回收熱能來發電。隨著時間推進，我們認為這一點，加上其他降低用電等作法，會帶來成效，等等。

In terms of the nitrogen, I guess a couple of the nitrogen producers are talking about green and blue nitrogen. At this stage, those really haven't got to the market yet, I would assume that if we can buy a lower intensity, carbon intensity nitrogen for our usage, ammonia for our usage, we would certainly go that direction.

至於氮肥方面，我想有幾家氮肥生產商在談綠氮與藍氮。現階段，那些產品其實還沒有真正進入市場。我會假設，如果我們能買到碳強度更低的氮肥供我們使用、也就是供我們使用的氨，我們當然會朝那個方向走。

We don't have any questions as of the moment from the queue. Please [proceed], presenters?

目前佇列中沒有任何提問。請[繼續]，簡報人員？

Yes. So thank you, everyone. I guess we're going to give you back a little bit of time. But let me just close by saying we -- what we're seeing today is the culmination of all the effort we put into for a long time. And now that these markets have started to move forward we're starting to really reap that benefit. And we see that strength going well into the second quarter and through the rest of this year. So with that, have a safe and productive day, and thank you very much for listening.

是的。所以謝謝各位。我想我們會把一些時間還給大家。不過最後我想做個結語：我們今天所看到的，是我們長期投入所有努力的成果累積。現在這些市場開始往前走，我們也開始真正收穫這些效益。我們看到這股強勢會延續到第二季，並貫穿今年剩餘時間。因此，祝大家今天平安且高效，並非常感謝各位收聽。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。