美盛公司 (MOS) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Fireside Chat. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2020 年第三季財報爐邊談話。（接線員指示）

Your host for today's call is Laura Gagnon, Vice President, Investor Relations of The Mosaic Company. Ms. Gagnon, you may begin.

今天電話會議的主持人是美國美盛公司投資人關係副總裁 Laura Gagnon。Gagnon 女士，請開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our third quarter 2020 earnings call. Presenting today will be Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer; Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Rick McLellan, Senior Vice President, Commercial.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2020 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的簡報人員包括：總裁暨執行長 Joc O'Rourke；資深副總裁暨財務長 Clint Freeland；以及商務資深副總裁 Rick McLellan。

We will host a prepared question-and-answer session addressing the questions received last night followed by a short live Q&A session, time permitting. All of our earnings materials released yesterday after market close are available on our website at mosaicco.com.

我們將先進行一段預先準備的問答，回覆昨晚收到的問題，之後在時間允許的情況下，再進行簡短的即時問答。我們昨日收盤後發布的所有財報資料，皆可於我們的網站 mosaicco.com 查閱。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release issued yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our third quarter press release and performance data attached as exhibits to yesterday's Form 8-K filing as well as our commentary on the quarter posted to our website also contain information important on these non-GAAP measures.

我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們第三季新聞稿、作為昨日 Form 8-K 申報附件之績效資料，以及我們發布於網站上的本季評論，亦包含與這些非 GAAP 指標相關的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話交給 Joc。

Thanks for joining us today for our quarter 3 2020 question-and-answer session.

感謝各位今天加入我們的 2020 年第三季問答環節。

Before we get started, I would like to emphasize our key points from our quarterly earnings report. First, we are realizing the benefits of our extensive cost transformation work. Gross margin for the quarter was up 27% compared with a year ago despite essentially flat fertilizer prices.

在開始之前，我想強調我們季度財報中的幾個重點。第一，我們正逐步實現大規模成本轉型工作的效益。儘管肥料價格基本持平，本季毛利率仍較去年同期提升 27%。

Secondly, agriculture and fertilizer markets around the globe are strong and improving. Phosphate prices are up substantially, while potash prices are stable. We expect global supply and demand to remain tight in all of 2021.

第二，全球農業與肥料市場強勁且持續改善。磷酸鹽價格大幅上漲，而鉀肥價格保持穩定。我們預期 2021 年全年全球供需在各品項上都將維持緊俏。

And third, our balance sheet continues to strengthen. We have repaid all the short-term debt we borrowed to be prepared for COVID impacts and the business is generating substantial cash.

第三，我們的資產負債表持續強化。我們已償還為因應 COVID 影響而預先借入的所有短期債務，且公司正在產生可觀的現金。

Now we'll get to your questions. Laura?

接下來我們將回答各位的問題。Laura？

Joc, I'm going to try to go through the most frequently asked questions fairly rapidly to allow time for follow-up questions after. The largest number of questions we received last night related to phosphates markets and the countervailing duty petition. P.J. Juvekar from Citi, Joel Jackson from BMO, and Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs are all asking about the impact of trade flow shifts.

Joc，我會盡量快速整理並回覆昨晚最常被問到的問題，以便之後保留時間進行追問。我們昨晚收到最多的問題與磷酸鹽市場以及反補貼稅（CVD）申請案有關。花旗的 P.J. Juvekar、BMO 的 Joel Jackson，以及高盛的 Adam Samuelson 都在詢問貿易流向轉移的影響。

How much premium has been built into the U.S. phosphate prices from the absence of Moroccan and Russian imports? And how will a reduction in the NOLA global parity premium affect your margins? In other words, what would the $50 price increase you expect to realize in the fourth quarter be if the U.S. was at parity today?

由於摩洛哥與俄羅斯進口缺席，美國磷酸鹽價格中已反映了多少溢價？而 NOLA 全球平價溢價的下降將如何影響你們的利潤率？換句話說，如果今天美國價格處於平價水準，你們預期在第四季可實現的每噸 50 美元漲幅會是多少？

Thank you, gentlemen.

謝謝，各位先生。

Prices are up globally. Our realizations reflect India prices up over 20% and Brazil prices up 30% despite increasing imports in both those jurisdictions from Morocco and Russia. While global parity may be less than where NOLA is trading today, it would be significantly higher than where it was trading in June.

全球價格都在上漲。我們的實現價格反映出：印度價格上漲超過 20%，巴西價格上漲 30%，儘管這兩個市場來自摩洛哥與俄羅斯的進口都在增加。即使全球平價可能低於目前 NOLA 的交易水準，但仍將顯著高於 6 月時的交易水準。

Now there seems to be an increasing common misconception that somehow the CVD petition is impacting global supply. Market prices are driven by strong supply and demand, not the CVD, which is expected to trade -- change trade flows not to overall market. Our petition was aimed at leveling the playing field for all producers selling in the U.S., not to eliminate competition. Moroccan and Russian producers chose to pull back completely from the U.S. market, likely leaving their customers short of product. And they did it to make a political point and express their dissatisfaction over this being considered at all.

目前似乎有一個日益普遍的誤解，認為反補貼稅（CVD）申請案正在影響全球供給。市場價格是由強勁的供需所驅動，而非 CVD；CVD 預期會改變貿易流向，而不是改變整體市場供需。我們提出申請案的目的，是為所有在美國銷售的生產商建立公平競爭環境，而不是要消除競爭。摩洛哥與俄羅斯的生產商選擇完全退出美國市場，這很可能使其客戶面臨產品短缺。他們這麼做是為了表達政治立場，並對此案竟被納入考量表示不滿。

We are doing all we can to best serve our customers. We have even begun importing tonnes from Ma'aden simply to meet our customers' needs. Longer term, it is not our intention to replace Moroccan and Russian tonnes with products from Saudi for several reasons, not least of which is from a global logistics perspective. It makes more sense for us to send that product into Asia rather than bring it here, but we're doing that to help our customers.

我們正盡一切努力以最佳方式服務客戶。我們甚至已開始自 Ma'aden 進口噸數，只為了滿足客戶需求。從長期來看，基於多項原因（其中之一是全球物流角度），我們無意以沙烏地產品取代摩洛哥與俄羅斯的噸數。對我們而言，將該產品運往亞洲比運到這裡更合理，但我們目前這麼做是為了協助客戶。

Longer term, we would expect NOLA to trade at global parity, recognize that global parity prices today are significantly above where they were in June.

從長期來看，我們預期 NOLA 將以全球平價水準交易；同時也要注意，當前全球平價價格顯著高於 6 月時的水準。

Another trade pool question comes from P.J. If exports from Morocco and Russia are ending up in India and Brazil, why are prices up there?

另一個關於貿易流向的問題來自 P.J.：如果摩洛哥與俄羅斯的出口最終流向印度與巴西，為什麼那裡的價格仍在上漲？

The global supply and demand is stronger than many realized a few months ago. Economic tightness in the market is driving global prices up. Supply has tightened. China exports are down. And we started 2020 with curtailments, including COVID-driven outages.

全球供需比幾個月前許多人所認知的更為強勁。市場的緊俏程度正在推升全球價格。供給已趨緊。中國出口下降。而且我們在 2020 年初就有減產情況，包括 COVID 導致的停產。

On the demand side, the agricultural economy globally is strong. Food security has become a great priority around the world. And fertilizers are very affordable.

在需求端，全球農業景氣強勁。糧食安全已成為全球高度優先事項。而且肥料價格非常可負擔。

We have a question from Ben Isaacson from Scotia and John Roberts from UBS. They're both asking about phosphate pricing momentum. September realized prices improved 11% from August. Did that momentum continue? And how much more upside do you see for the phosphate market?

我們收到 Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson 與 UBS 的 John Roberts 的提問。他們都在詢問磷酸鹽價格的上漲動能。9 月的實現價格較 8 月改善 11%。這股動能是否延續？你們認為磷酸鹽市場還有多少上行空間？

We've continued to see prices increase into October and November. And seeing good demand as we move into 2021, we expect to end this fall with very low inventories, which bodes well for the spring season and winter fill. We are seeing a normal seasonal slowdown, but we expect strong markets to continue into 2021. And as we mentioned in our written remarks, we expect prices in the fourth quarter to be up $50 per tonne over the third quarter.

我們持續看到價格在 10 月與 11 月進一步上漲。隨著我們邁入 2021 年且需求良好，我們預期今年秋季結束時庫存將非常低，這對春季旺季與冬季補庫都很有利。我們確實看到正常的季節性放緩，但我們預期強勁的市場將延續至 2021 年。如同我們在書面說明中提到的，我們預期第四季價格將較第三季每噸上漲 50 美元。

Joc, both Chris Parkinson of Credit Suisse and Joel Jackson of BMO and others are asking for potential impacts following the ITC DOC determinations. In particular, how will no, low and high duties impact our strategy? And who will fill the void if U.S. imports?

Joc，瑞信的 Chris Parkinson、BMO 的 Joel Jackson 以及其他人都在詢問 ITC 與 DOC 裁定後可能帶來的影響。特別是，若關稅為無、低或高，將如何影響我們的策略？以及如果美國進口出現缺口，將由誰來填補？

Remember, the November determination is simply if there are subsidies. In the first quarter, the decision is the determination of harm and the identification of duty, if anything.

請記住，11 月的裁定只是判定是否存在補貼。在第一季，將作出損害認定並確定（如有的話）適用的稅率。

If it is determined that there is going to be a high duty, we would expect the trade flows to change to account for that. As such, we would expect the Russians and the Moroccans to continue to ship to other markets like India and Brazil.

如果認定將課徵高額關稅，我們預期貿易流向會隨之調整以反映該情況。因此，我們預期俄羅斯與摩洛哥將持續改向印度、巴西等其他市場出貨。

If there is no subsidy, we would expect the trade flows to return to what they were pre-CVD filing. Remember, the Russians and the Moroccans made the decision to pull out of these markets altogether when petition was filed.

如果沒有補貼，我們預期貿易流向將回到提出反補貼稅（CVD）申請之前的狀態。請記住，當申請提出時，俄羅斯與摩洛哥已決定完全退出這些市場。

So we will continue to serve our customers. If there is more product required for Brazil and India, we will redirect tonnes to those markets. If we continue to see a deficiency in the North American market, we will divert tonnes to that market.

因此我們將持續服務我們的客戶。如果巴西與印度需要更多產品，我們會把噸數轉向那些市場。如果我們持續看到北美市場供應不足，我們會把噸數轉往該市場。

Joc, we've received a number of questions related to the broader phosphate market supply and demand, in particular with respect to the Chinese phosphate industry. P.J. Juvekar from Citi asks, what are your estimates of phosphate exports out of China in 2020?

Joc，我們收到不少與更廣泛的磷酸鹽市場供需相關的問題，特別是關於中國磷酸鹽產業。花旗的 P.J. Juvekar 問到，你們對 2020 年中國磷酸鹽出口量的估計是多少？

We've said and we continue to believe that Chinese exports will be down by more than 500,000 tonnes this year. Our latest estimate is that they will actually be down by more like 700,000 tonnes. From January to September, exports were down by nearly 1 million tonnes.

我們曾表示且仍然相信，今年中國出口將減少超過 50 萬噸。我們最新的估計是，實際上可能更接近減少 70 萬噸。從 1 月到 9 月，出口已減少將近 100 萬噸。

Now it's important to remember that DAP MAP production in China continues to trend lower. Quarter 1 to quarter 3, it was down by about 1.4 million tonnes, while domestic demand now appears to be stabilizing. That means Chinese exports are going to be constrained in the future.

現在重要的是要記住，中國的 DAP、MAP 產量仍持續走低。第一季到第三季，產量約減少 140 萬噸，而國內需求目前看起來正在趨於穩定。這意味著未來中國出口將受到限制。

Jonas Oxgaard asked, how confident are you that the 3 facilities closed in China are permanently closed?

Jonas Oxgaard 問到，你們對中國關閉的 3 座設施是否永久關閉有多大把握？

For the 3 facilities closed in 2019, we are confident they are not coming back to DAP MAP production. One was permanently closed, one was in the process of relocation to a different place and is planned to be built as a water-soluble fertilizer production facility and the third shifted its production to industrial-grade purified phosphoric acid. Purified phosphoric acid from the wet process is replacing the highly-polluting thermal process, which is also the outcome of the stringent environmental protection measurements and is ongoing.

對於 2019 年關閉的 3 座設施，我們有信心它們不會回到 DAP、MAP 的生產。其中一座已永久關閉；一座正在搬遷至其他地點，並計畫建成水溶性肥料生產設施；第三座則將產能轉向工業級精製磷酸。濕法製程的精製磷酸正在取代高污染的熱法製程，這也是嚴格環保措施的結果，且仍在持續推進。

According to China Phosphate Industry Association, 5 million tonnes of DAP MAP production capacity has been lost since the environmental protection measures have been implemented. This includes permanent closure, relocation for different production and strategic production shifts to higher-value products like purified phosphoric acid.

根據中國磷肥工業協會，自環保措施實施以來，DAP、MAP 產能已流失 500 萬噸。這包括永久關閉、為不同生產而搬遷，以及策略性轉向精製磷酸等更高價值產品。

Joc, in a related question, Chris Parkinson would also like an update on the projections for Chinese production costs.

Joc，相關的另一個問題，Chris Parkinson 也希望你更新對中國生產成本預測的看法。

The estimation to a typical southwest phosphate producer's production cost is still around $300 per metric tonne, ex-plant, and probably an FOB equivalent of $335 per metric tonne at a Chinese export port.

對典型中國西南地區磷酸鹽生產商的生產成本估計仍約為每公噸 300 美元（出廠價），折算成中國出口港口的 FOB 等值大約是每公噸 335 美元。

Joc, the second most popular area of questions was Mosaic Fertilizantes. Mark Connelly specifically addressed this question to you.

Joc，第二大熱門提問領域是 Mosaic Fertilizantes。Mark Connelly 特別把這個問題問你。

After you acquired Fertilizantes, you told us that there were no really big cost reduction projects, but rather a large number of small to midsized projects, many of which were suggested by local employees. Are the sort of projects you are doing today materially different in expected returns? And among these, has the transfer of best practices between and among your Brazil plants proceeded as well as the early projects did?

你們收購 Fertilizantes 之後曾告訴我們，並沒有真正大型的降本專案，而是大量小到中型的專案，其中許多由當地員工提出。你們今天在做的這類專案，在預期報酬上是否有實質差異？另外，在這些專案中，你們巴西各廠之間的最佳實務移轉，是否也像早期專案一樣進展順利？

Let me say, we continue to see a number of small to medium-sized, high-benefit projects, and transformation continues to drive benefits with very little capital and very high returns for Mosaic Fertilizantes. Now as we go forward, some of these will require incremental growth capital, mostly technology-related, and much of that is like our next-gen mining investment in Florida.

我想說的是，我們仍持續看到許多小到中型、效益很高的專案；而轉型也持續以很少的資本投入、很高的報酬，為 Mosaic Fertilizantes 帶來效益。展望未來，其中一些將需要額外的成長資本，主要與技術相關，而其中很大一部分類似我們在佛羅里達的下一代採礦投資。

Now what I would ask is we're going to go into depth of this and our transformation growth objectives for Mosaic Fertilizantes next Monday, November 9. So please stay tuned then and we'll give you a lot more detail of where we believe this business is going and the potential for our growth in South America.

我想請大家注意的是，我們將在下週一（11 月 9 日）深入說明這點，以及我們對 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的轉型成長目標。

Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs and Andrew Wong from RBC both asked about the demand outlook.

高盛的 Adam Samuelson 與 RBC 的 Andrew Wong 都詢問了需求展望。

How does the interplay of current farmer economics and La Niña weather forecasts impact the Brazilian demand outlook? And did the very high Q3 phosphates demand pull volumes from Q4?

目前農民經濟狀況與拉尼娜（La Niña）天氣預報的交互作用，如何影響巴西的需求展望？以及第三季磷酸鹽需求非常強勁，是否把第四季的量提前拉到第三季？

Look, current farmer economics are very strong, particularly in Brazil, and are expected to push Brazilian demand grow higher again in 2021, probably in the 2% to 3% year-over-year. This is the fundamental driver.

你看，目前農民的經濟狀況非常強勁，尤其是在巴西，預期將推動巴西 2021 年需求再度走高，年增可能約 2% 到 3%。這是根本性的驅動因素。

As for La Niña, it's not something that we're overly concerned with, unless it were persistent through mid-2021. The reason for this is the strong growth signals from La Niña for Argentina and Southern Brazil is typical from June to August. And what we saw in recent months could have been a signal persisting a bit longer than is typical or it may have been simply dry weather patterns in South Americas at large.

至於拉尼娜，我們並不特別擔心，除非它持續到 2021 年年中。原因在於，拉尼娜對阿根廷與巴西南部的強烈成長訊號通常出現在 6 月到 8 月。而我們近幾個月看到的情況，可能是訊號持續的時間比典型更長一些，也可能只是整體南美洲偏乾的天氣型態。

Importantly for Brazil, though, rains have improved and planting is progressing. The delays were only a couple of weeks, so we do expect to see no impact on total demand. Demand is expected to main -- remain very strong, aligned with good farmer profitability.

不過對巴西而言，重要的是降雨已改善、播種正在推進。延遲只有幾週，因此我們預期總需求不會受到影響。需求預期將維持——仍然非常強勁，與良好的農民獲利能力一致。

In terms of your question of moving Q3 phosphates from Q4, we do expect to see continued strong demand in Q4 as the season has been extended by the dry weather that we've already seen.

至於你問到是否把第四季的磷酸鹽量移到第三季，我們確實預期第四季需求仍將持續強勁，因為我們已經看到的乾燥天氣使得季節被拉長。

Joc, Steve Byrne of Bank of America asks, there has been significant productivity extracted from the legacy Vale assets. Are the earnings growth drivers longer-term going to be from geographic expansion, from production capacity expansions in phosphate and potash or from new products and services such as selling other crop inputs?

Joc，美國銀行的 Steve Byrne 問到，從既有的 Vale 資產中已大幅提升生產力。長期而言，獲利成長的驅動因素會來自地理擴張、磷酸鹽與鉀肥的產能擴張，還是來自新產品與服務（例如銷售其他作物投入品）？

Yes. The quick answer is yes. We see great potential in all 3 of those areas. We are and have a very strong first-mover advantage. We have a great platform in Brazil. And we hope, over time, to take greater advantage of that.

是的。簡短的答案是：是的。我們在這三個領域都看到很大的潛力。我們擁有非常強的先行者優勢。我們在巴西有很好的平台。並且我們希望隨著時間推進，更充分地利用這些優勢。

Now today, our primary focus for growth in Mosaic Fertilizantes is organic. We continue to see transformation opportunity. We see increases in co-product sales and benefits from the deployment of technology. There are geographic areas where we feel we have a smaller distribution footprint than we would like, but we also have room to grow with our current distribution assets that we have.

而在今天，Mosaic Fertilizantes 的成長重點主要是內生成長。我們持續看到轉型機會。我們看到副產品銷售增加，以及技術導入所帶來的效益。有些地理區域我們覺得目前的通路覆蓋比我們希望的還小，但同時我們也有空間在現有的通路資產上持續成長。

So in summary, we see all areas having potential. We do think that both distribution and production will grow. And we'll continue to strive our first-mover advantage in that great growing region.

總結來說，我們看到各個領域都有潛力。我們確實認為配銷與生產都將成長。而且我們將持續在那個高速成長的地區，努力維持我們的先行者優勢。

Joel Jackson from BMO is asking about Fertilizantes' per tonne margins. Should we expect these margins to hold, expand or contract in 2021? And what are the main drivers of these?

BMO 的 Joel Jackson 詢問 Fertilizantes 的每噸利潤率。我們是否應預期這些利潤率在 2021 年維持、擴大或收縮？其主要驅動因素是什麼？

When we're thinking about our per tonne margins, we really have to consider 2 components. First, production, where the price of finished goods, raw materials and cost to produce drive gross margins. Here, we are continue driving production costs down and, through transformation, continuing to improve that business.

當我們思考每噸利潤率時，確實必須考量兩個組成部分。第一是生產端，成品價格、原料與生產成本會驅動毛利率。在這裡，我們持續降低生產成本，並透過轉型持續改善該業務。

In distribution, where we earn a margin that is impacted by volume, economy of scale and pricing trends, we continue as well as transformation and continued improvements in our performance product sales. That's really how we're going to drive long-term value. So in distribution, we do see that holding up well as well as in production. So on both sides, we expect we cannot only hold those margins, but expand them in -- as time goes by.

在配銷端，我們賺取的利潤率會受到銷量、規模經濟與定價趨勢影響；我們同樣持續推動轉型，並持續改善我們在高附加價值產品銷售方面的表現。這才是我們將如何驅動長期價值。因此在配銷端，我們確實看到其表現維持得很好，生產端亦然。所以在兩端，我們預期不僅能維持這些利潤率，還能隨著時間推移進一步擴大。

Joc, we also got a large number of questions on our phosphate segment. Steve Byrne and P.J. Juvekar are both asking about the near-term performance and the expected profitability improvement into the fourth quarter.

Joc，我們也收到大量關於磷酸鹽部門的問題。Steve Byrne 與 P.J. Juvekar 都在詢問短期表現，以及第四季預期獲利能力的改善。

What portion of the phosphate fourth quarter volumes are already locked in? And will this impact your ability to realize the $50 per tonne price increase? So are we looking at a much better fourth quarter in phosphates?

第四季磷酸鹽的出貨量有多少比例已經鎖定？這是否會影響你們實現每噸 50 美元漲價的能力？所以我們是否會看到磷酸鹽在第四季明顯更好？

As expected, a good portion of the tonnes we expect to recognize in the fourth quarter have already been sold and priced. We don't expect our price realization increase to be below the $50 per tonne in any scenario. We have assessed the impact on a potential announcement in CVD in November, and our expectation is the impact will only be a minor change to late December shipments if that goes against us.

如預期，我們預計在第四季認列的噸數中，有相當一部分已經完成銷售並定價。在任何情境下，我們都不預期我們的價格實現增幅會低於每噸 50 美元。我們已評估 11 月可能宣布 CVD 的影響；我們的預期是，若結果對我們不利，影響也僅會是對 12 月下旬出貨造成些微變動。

P.J. Juvekar of Citi and Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs both asked about the ARO reserve increase.

花旗的 P.J. Juvekar 與高盛的 Adam Samuelson 都詢問了 ARO 準備金增加的問題。

Can you elaborate on the drivers for the ARO increase and the remediation liability? What is the timing of the increased cash outlays?

你能否進一步說明 ARO 增加與整治負債的驅動因素？增加的現金支出時點為何？

I'm going to hand this one straight over to Clint to answer. I think he has the details of our ARO that we just booked.

我會把這題直接交給 Clint 來回答。我想他掌握我們剛入帳的 ARO 細節。

As many of you may recall, the third quarter of each year is typically when we update and refresh the estimate procedure work related to ARO activity. And I would say that quite a bit of the amount that we booked this quarter is related to Plant City as we've learned more about that site over the last year.

如各位可能記得，每年第三季通常是我們更新並重新整理與 ARO 活動相關估算程序工作的時點。我會說，本季我們入帳金額中相當大一部分與 Plant City 有關，因為過去一年我們對該場址有了更多了解。

Our ARO spend is typically spread out over an extended period of time, 40 to 50 years during the life of facilities in Gypstacks and so forth, so a very extended type of spend profile. But also recall that against our existing AROs, we also have about a $700 million escrow account that will offset at least a portion of that spend in future years.

我們的 ARO 支出通常分散在很長的期間內，約 40 到 50 年，涵蓋設施在石膏堆（Gypstacks）等的使用年限，因此是一種非常長期的支出曲線。但也請記得，針對我們既有的 ARO，我們還有約 7 億美元的託管帳戶，將在未來年度抵銷至少一部分支出。

Now related to the environmental reserve that we've booked this quarter, that's really related to some subsurface work that we need to do at some of our facilities around some of our Gypstacks. And I would say, specific to that, that spend is probably going to be made over the next 2 to 4 years.

至於我們本季入帳的環境準備金，主要與我們需要在部分設施、一些石膏堆周邊進行的地下（subsurface）作業有關。而就此而言，我會說相關支出大概會在未來 2 到 4 年內發生。

Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs and Seth Goldstein from Morningstar are both asking about fourth quarter phosphate volumes.

高盛的 Adam Samuelson 與 Morningstar 的 Seth Goldstein 都在詢問第四季磷酸鹽出貨量。

Is it reasonable to expect a notable uptick in volumes? As we move into 2021, should we expect higher year-over-year volumes or will you keep production lower to support higher prices?

是否合理預期出貨量會明顯上升？進入 2021 年後，我們應預期年對年出貨量更高，還是你們會維持較低產量以支撐較高價格？

As we look at the fourth quarter, we see great demand in all our markets right now. And so with that, we do expect to have relatively good sales through the quarter and then low inventories as we enter next year.

就第四季而言，我們看到目前所有市場的需求都很強勁。因此，我們確實預期本季將有相對不錯的銷售表現，並在進入明年時維持較低庫存。

As we look to 2021, we do expect to see a good demand scenario and we would expect to see good utilization of our assets, particularly, if you remember, in first quarter of 2020, we had Bartow down for almost 3 months. So now we expect that to come back and our facilities to run very much closer to full production in 2021.

展望 2021 年，我們確實預期需求情境良好，並預期我們的資產將有良好的稼動率；尤其如果你們記得，2020 年第一季我們的 Bartow 停機將近 3 個月。因此現在我們預期該部分將回復，並且 2021 年我們的設施運轉將更接近滿產。

Joc, lastly, I'd like to end with a couple of questions on our potash segment. Ben Isaacson from Scotia asks, how we think about Colonsay? And do we believe there may be a need for those tonnes in the market in the future?

Joc，最後我想以幾個關於鉀肥部門的問題作結。Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson 問到我們如何看待 Colonsay？以及我們是否認為未來市場可能需要那些噸數？

Yes, we definitely look at Colonsay as something we would bring back if our customers needed the tonnes and if the price justified restarting it. This industry is ripe with examples of sudden but permanent supply disruptions. And in that case, this tonnage could be very valuable to us. And as our customers' demand grows, Colonsay will be significantly cheaper to bring back than any greenfield operation.

是的，如果客戶需要這些噸數，且價格足以支撐重啟，我們絕對會把 Colonsay 視為可以恢復投產的選項。這個產業充滿了供給突然但永久中斷的案例。在那種情況下，這些產能對我們可能非常有價值。而且隨著客戶需求成長，重啟 Colonsay 的成本將顯著低於任何綠地（greenfield）新建案。

The last question comes from Seth Goldstein at Morningstar.

最後一個問題來自 Morningstar 的 Seth Goldstein。

How much potash is coming out of K3 now? And how does that change as we move to 2022? Is the long-term plan to grow K3 production in line with potash demand growth? Or will you try to increase market share?

目前 K3 的鉀肥產量是多少？隨著我們邁向 2022 年，這會如何變化？長期計畫是否是讓 K3 產量與鉀肥需求成長同步？還是你們會嘗試提高市占率？

In 2020, K3 is forecasted to produce about 4.4 million tonnes or the equivalent of about 1.5 million tonnes of finished product, which amounts to about 15%, 20% of our total production of potash in Canada.

在 2020 年，預估 K3 將生產約 440 萬噸，或相當於約 150 萬噸的成品，約占我們在加拿大鉀肥總產量的 15% 到 20%。

In June 2022, K3 ore at Esterhazy will be providing the ore for approximately 6 million tonnes of finished good production. And this will completely replace K1 and K2 mines. So our expectation is we will not necessarily grow production, but rather replace K1 and K2.

到 2022 年 6 月，Esterhazy 的 K3 礦石將為約 600 萬噸成品產量提供礦源。而這將完全取代 K1 與 K2 礦場。因此我們的預期不一定是增加產量，而是取代 K1 與 K2。

Longer term, our goal is to match production with demand, while also lowering our cost profile. K3 has already proven to lower our overall costs.

更長期而言，我們的目標是在降低成本結構的同時，使產量與需求相匹配。K3 已經證明能降低我們的整體成本。

Now with our remaining time, I'd like to open it up for follow-up questions from our audience.

接下來在剩餘時間，我想開放觀眾提出追問。

(Operator Instructions) We have our first question from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

I'd like to drill a little more on this phosphate supply and demand outlook that seems to be highly contested today. So you have a fair amount of information in your deck on the demand outlook for '21, somewhere between flat with 2020 or maybe up 2 million tonnes. But if we look at your supply outlook and you have a breakdown of what you see as potentially the delta in supply from '21 to '20, there's a few fairly large items in there and just we'd like to hear your view as to the up and downside risk to some of those, the big ones being an inventory build is expected by the producers, the ramp-up at OCP and then the recovery in supply given the 2020 outages. Those 3 are the -- they are the fairly large line items. Is there a potential risk that those are much bigger than that?

我想再深入探討一下目前爭議很大的磷酸鹽供需展望。你們在簡報中提供了不少關於 2021 年需求展望的資訊，大約介於與 2020 年持平，或增加 200 萬噸。但如果我們看你們的供給展望，你們拆解了你們認為 2021 相較 2020 供給變化（delta）的可能來源，其中有幾個相當大的項目；我們想聽聽你們對這些項目上行與下行風險的看法，主要包括：生產商預期的庫存增加、OCP 的產能爬坡，以及 2020 年停產後供給的恢復。這三項是——它們是相當大的明細項目。是否存在風險，這些項目實際上會比你們估計的大得多？

Well, let me start by saying, as we look into 2021, we do believe that the phosphate S&D is quite tight. So first of all, we'll end this year with relatively low inventories, and that's relatively low inventories throughout the channel. Our proxy kind of indicates U.S. inventory will be down about 35%, which represents somewhere in that 600,000 tonnes mark. India will be down as much as 1.3 million tonnes and China down as much as 700,000 tonnes. So as we look at how we enter this year, we do believe that some of the production will have to go into rebuilding distribution stocks to fully service this market.

好，我先說，當我們展望2021年時，我們確實認為磷酸鹽的供需（S&D）相當吃緊。首先，我們將以相對偏低的庫存水位結束今年，而且這是整個通路的相對低庫存。我們的替代指標顯示，美國庫存將下降約35%，約相當於60萬噸左右。印度將下降多達130萬噸，中國下降多達70萬噸。因此，當我們看今年如何開局時，我們確實認為部分產量將必須用於重建通路庫存，才能充分服務這個市場。

And then if we look at the increases, there's a couple of things that are important. First of all, with that level of inventory at the end of the year, we do expect that the -- will be a higher utilization of assets, which is where we have the 1 million tonnes of recovered production, if you will.

接著如果我們看增量，有幾點很重要。首先，在年底那樣的庫存水位下，我們確實預期——資產利用率會更高，這也就是我們所說的約100萬噸的恢復產量（如果你願意這麼稱呼）。

So if we look at those 2, they relatively offset themselves that we need to increase inventory just to supply basic needs and have a normally balanced market, but we also will have the opportunity to run assets harder.

所以如果我們看這兩項，它們大致彼此抵銷：我們需要增加庫存以滿足基本需求並讓市場回到正常平衡，但同時我們也會有機會讓資產以更高負荷運轉。

In terms of the go-forward, we've heard from OCP publicly that they will be relatively slower in bringing on new production. They've announced that publicly. So we see modest increases to new productions coming from improvements in Ma'aden as they continue to move their Wa'ad Al Shamal operation up to full production over the next year or 2 and then modest increases from OCP. And I think the rest are fairly minor in nature, so I wouldn't really worry too much about those one way or another. But overall, we do see a tightening market for next year.

就未來而言，我們已公開聽到OCP表示，他們在導入新增產能方面會相對放慢。他們已經公開宣布了。因此，我們看到新增產量的溫和增長將來自Ma'aden的改善，他們在未來一到兩年會持續把Wa'ad Al Shamal營運提升至滿產，另外也會有來自OCP的溫和增量。我認為其餘的都相當小，因此我不會太擔心那些對市場的影響。但整體而言，我們確實看到明年市場將趨於更緊。

Our next question comes from the line of Jonas Oxgaard from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自Bernstein的Jonas Oxgaard。

I was wondering if you could touch a little bit on the phosphate rock supply/demand as well. Basically, the same analysis you did for phosphate supply/demand. What does it look like on the rock side?

我想請你也稍微談一下磷礦石的供需。基本上，就是你對磷酸鹽供需所做的同樣分析。在礦石端看起來如何？

Yes. Okay. We don't -- sorry. We don't really look at phosphate supply and demand, the rock supply and demand for the reason that we're not really involved in that market. Overall, where we get -- where that comes about is domestic production in some of the nonintegrated markets like India and whatnot.

是的。好的。我們不——抱歉。我們其實不太看磷礦石的供需，原因是我們並未真正參與那個市場。整體而言，我們所看到——那主要來自一些非一體化市場（例如印度等）的國內生產。

In terms of our Miski Mayo operation, which we do have an outside production of rock, it's really for our own use. So we don't, again, look at it from that perspective. We assume that really what matters is overall phosphoric acid usage in the global market and that really drives us.

就我們的Miski Mayo營運而言，我們確實有對外的礦石產量，但主要是供自用。所以我們同樣不會從那個角度去看。我們假設真正重要的是全球市場的磷酸使用量，而那才是驅動我們的因素。

So when we talk about our DAP MAP, really, it breaks down to what is produced from that rock and what we produce from our own rock. So we don't really look at it as a separate market.

因此當我們談到DAP、MAP時，實際上可拆解為：由該礦石所生產的產品，以及由我們自有礦石所生產的產品。所以我們不會把它視為一個獨立市場來看。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自Credit Suisse的Chris Parkinson。

Quickly on the potash front. It appears, in certain markets, ex-China, are really beginning to turn throughout Asia. And you and some of your peers seem confident in the rebound in the Chinese market as well.

快速問一下鉀肥方面。看起來在某些市場（不含中國）整個亞洲的情況真的開始轉好。而你們以及一些同業似乎也對中國市場的復甦很有信心。

So just overall on your analysis heading into the next 2 years, of course, hitting on course grain, oilseed and even F&V, what are your thoughts of potential upside coming from the Asian market? And then also if you could hit on the potential optionality for biodiesel, that would be incredibly helpful as well.

所以整體來看，針對未來兩年的分析，當然也涵蓋穀物、油籽，甚至果蔬（F&V），你對於來自亞洲市場的潛在上行空間有何看法？另外，如果你也能談談生質柴油的潛在選擇權（optionalitiy），那也會非常有幫助。

Okay. Look, what we see today and I think what we saw through the year, is not unlike what we've talked about previously, which is when the price in 2016 went low, we quickly saw a rebound in demand. And we're seeing that this year as we predicted earlier in the year. So first of all, I would say there's been a relative rebound in demand as was expected.

好的。你看，我們今天所看到的，以及我認為我們今年一路看到的，與我們先前談過的並無不同：也就是當2016年價格走低時，我們很快就看到需求反彈。而我們今年也如同年初所預測的那樣看到了這點。所以首先我要說，需求確實如預期出現相對的反彈。

Some of the highlights, though, I would like to put out is, as you mentioned, China has been a really good highlight as has India. In both of those markets, for reasons of food security and probably trying to make sure that they produce as much in-country as they can, demand for potash has been strong in both of those jurisdictions. And then in the rest of Asia, the big thing there, of course, is Indonesia, Malaysia and the demand for palm oil, which has really bumped up.

不過我想強調幾個重點：如你所提到的，中國是一個非常突出的亮點，印度也是。在這兩個市場，基於糧食安全的原因，以及可能希望確保盡可能多在國內生產，鉀肥需求在這兩個司法管轄區都很強勁。而在亞洲其他地區，最大的因素當然是印尼、馬來西亞，以及棕櫚油需求的上升，這確實帶動了需求。

And I -- and just to touch on your piece there, biodiesel has been a part of that because where -- biodiesel is going to play a role in fuel as we go forward. And I would like to highlight that in markets like India and China, basic ethanol will also play a role in demand for commodities in those jurisdictions as well.

而我——也順著你提到的那一點，生質柴油確實是其中一部分，因為隨著我們往前走，生質柴油將在燃料中扮演一定角色。我也想強調，在印度和中國這樣的市場，基礎乙醇也將在這些司法管轄區的商品需求上扮演角色。

So yes, we do look at these playing a role in demand increase over time. And we are expecting good demand from Asia, India, China in the next year.

所以是的，我們確實認為這些因素會隨時間推進而在需求增長中扮演角色。而我們預期明年亞洲、印度、中國的需求會不錯。

Our next question comes from the line of P.J. Juvekar from Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自Citigroup的P.J. Juvekar。

Potash volumes year-to-date are up 6%, while phosphates are up only 1%. What is the -- why is there a difference?

年初至今鉀肥銷量成長6%，而磷酸鹽只成長1%。這是——為什麼會有差異？

And then secondly, if China ag markets are really robust, and I think that will continue into 2021, what are your expectations from the country in terms of imports of potash and exports of phosphates?

第二，如果中國農業市場真的很強勁，而且我認為這會延續到2021年，你對該國在鉀肥進口與磷酸鹽出口方面的預期是什麼？

Okay. Well, let me hit your first question first, P.J. The big difference, I think, between potash and phosphate volumes in terms of deliveries has probably been, more than anything, just inventory moves. If you remember, we had a very big buildup of inventory as we moved into this year in phosphates. And for that reason, I think that was -- had to be consumed first and was consumed in the first quarter before you really got into -- starting to get real demand or real demand pull from production. So I think that's probably the reason for that.

好的。P.J.，我先回答你的第一個問題。我認為鉀肥與磷酸鹽在交付量上的最大差異，可能主要就是庫存變動。如果你記得，我們在進入今年時，磷酸鹽庫存有非常大的累積。因此我認為那——必須先被消化，而且在第一季就先被消化掉，之後你才真正進入——開始看到真實需求，或由生產端拉動的真實需求。所以我想這大概就是原因。

In terms of -- sorry, I got to get the second question, Laura?

至於——抱歉，我得確認第二個問題，Laura？

Yes.

是的。

P.J. -- can we ask P.J. to reask a second question? Sorry, operator, I...

P.J.——我們可以請P.J.再問一次第二個問題嗎？抱歉，接線員，我……

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Here, hold it. Oh, I'm sorry, yes, phosphates. Sorry, the question, I think, from P.J. was Chinese imports of potash and Chinese exports of phosphates next year.

這裡，等一下。喔，抱歉，是的，磷酸鹽。抱歉，我想P.J.的問題是：明年中國的鉀肥進口，以及中國的磷酸鹽出口。

And so, look, our expectation in China in potash, P.J., is that there's going to be continued focus, and we see this in their 5-year plan in China, but there's continued focus on food security and ensuring that they have a robust agricultural industry to ensure the less reliance on outside places. So for doing that, we expect that actually potash demand will increase internally because the corn demand is so strong. But also, the other one is their own internal production at Qinghai Lake is reaching its capacity and possibly even going down. So we do expect China to be a, let's call it, a growth engine for next year.

所以，你看，我們對中國鉀肥的預期是，P.J.，未來仍會持續聚焦；我們也在中國的五年計畫中看到這一點，也就是持續重視糧食安全，並確保其擁有強健的農業產業，以降低對外部地區的依賴。因此，為了達成這點，我們預期鉀肥的內需實際上會增加，因為玉米需求非常強勁。但另外一點是，他們在青海湖的國內自產已接近產能上限，甚至可能開始下滑。所以我們確實預期中國將成為明年的一個「成長引擎」。

In terms of phosphate exports, I think, as I said, there's a couple of closures. So there has been some structural changes in the phosphate market in China. And that, coupled with what we believe is flat to increasing Chinese consumption of phosphates, means that our expectation is Chinese exports will be down, maybe not year-over-year because COVID had a big impact to the start of this year, but certainly down from the 2019 levels.

就磷酸鹽出口而言，我想如我所說，有幾處關閉。因此，中國的磷酸鹽市場出現了一些結構性變化。再加上我們認為中國磷酸鹽消費量持平至增加，意味著我們的預期是中國出口將會下降；也許不一定是年對年下降，因為 COVID 對今年年初造成了很大影響，但肯定會低於 2019 年的水準。

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson。

It's Adam Samuelson. So the -- I guess there's been a lot of detail today on the phosphate kind of market outlook and your own kind of expectations of your own performance in the market, yet, Joc, your stock is down 15%. And so clearly, the market takes a -- is taking a different view. What do you think the market is getting along today as it relates to your own kind of market outlook or the strategy or the operating performance that -- where do you think the gaps in understanding is?

我是 Adam Samuelson。所以——我想今天對磷酸鹽市場展望以及你們對自身在市場中表現的預期，已經提供了很多細節；然而，Joc，你們的股價卻下跌了 15%。因此很明顯，市場的看法——正在採取不同的觀點。你認為市場今天在理解你們自身的市場展望、策略或營運表現方面，到底是哪裡出了問題——你覺得理解上的落差在哪裡？

Well, I'm going to have to be fairly direct on this answer, Adam. And let me start by saying, I suspect the market has been impacted by statements made by one of our competitors and their impairment of their phosphate business. So let me be relatively direct with this.

Adam，這個回答我得相當直接。我先說，我懷疑市場受到我們某位競爭對手所發表的言論，以及他們對其磷酸鹽業務進行減損的影響。所以讓我就此相對直接地說明。

First of all, an impairment needs to be driven by a triggering event, at least that's my understanding of general accounting practices or IFRS. When I look at the potential triggering events, the one thing I can say is that phosphate prices are up significantly quarter-over-quarter. And if I look at the outside consultants that we use like CRU, their long-term estimates are also up. So it is very difficult for me to see how long-term phosphate outlook was the triggering event for this write-down.

首先，減損必須由觸發事件所驅動，至少這是我對一般會計實務或 IFRS 的理解。當我看可能的觸發事件時，我能說的一點是，磷酸鹽價格季對季大幅上升。而且如果我看我們使用的外部顧問，例如 CRU，他們的長期估計也上調了。因此，我很難理解長期磷酸鹽展望會是這次減記的觸發事件。

So as such, you asked me what I -- what we're getting wrong. I think people are taking the idea that the triggering event was the phosphate market, where clearly it had to be something different than that. And they're assuming that means we have a part -- a poor outlook.

因此，你問我我們——我們哪裡判斷錯了。我認為人們把觸發事件當成是磷酸鹽市場，但很明顯它必須是不同於此的其他因素。而他們據此推論這代表我們的前景——部分——很差。

Now what I will say is if you compare the 2 businesses, we are very difficult to compare them one-to-one. First of all, we're very different in scale, but we also sell very different products. They sell purified phosphoric acid, which is being highly impacted in the industrial sector by 2 things: One, the economy is slowing down and the other by external competition. Now if I look -- compare that to fertilizers, fertilizers is actually quite the opposite. We've seen an increase in demand, we've seen an increase in pricing and we see a very good outlook. So I don't think you can compare the 2 businesses. And I certainly don't think phosphate demand and supply, at least for fertilizers, is a factor in that.

我接著要說的是，如果你比較這兩個業務，其實很難一對一比較。首先，我們在規模上非常不同，而且我們銷售的產品也很不一樣。他們賣的是精製磷酸，這在工業領域正受到兩件事的高度影響：第一，經濟正在放緩；第二，外部競爭。但如果我看——把那與肥料相比，肥料其實正好相反。我們看到需求增加、價格上升，而且我們看到非常好的展望。所以我不認為你可以比較這兩個業務。而且我也完全不認為磷酸鹽的供需——至少就肥料而言——是其中的因素。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong。

So I mean there's been a lot of discussion around the CVD impacts, and we've covered that a lot, but I do want to ask another one. So like you said, it's mostly about the trade flows aren't really -- that's not really what's driven the S&D. But in terms of like on Mosaic -- so Mosaic sells a lot of phosphate in both Brazil and the U.S. And if anything, it seems like Brazil is getting up there in terms of volume. So I understand that if the trade flows were reversed, maybe the U.S. premium comes down, but like what's the actual impact on the company because then you would see less flows going to Brazil? I'd just be curious to hear your thoughts on that.

所以，我的意思是，關於 CVD 的影響已經討論很多，我們也談了不少，但我還想再問一個。就像你說的，主要是貿易流向其實並不是——並不是驅動供需（S&D）的原因。但就 Mosaic 而言——Mosaic 在巴西和美國都賣很多磷酸鹽。而且如果有什麼變化的話，看起來巴西在量的方面正在往上走。所以我理解，如果貿易流向反轉，也許美國溢價會下來，但對公司實際的影響是什麼？因為那樣你會看到流向巴西的貨量變少？我只是想聽聽你的看法。

Yes. Look, you're absolutely right. This is about trade flows, not overall supply and demand.

是的。你說得完全正確。這是關於貿易流向，而不是整體供需。

So today, what the Russians and the Moroccans have done is they have redirected tonnes that would have otherwise come to the U.S. to either Brazil, India or, in some cases, Eastern Canada. So they have moved a number of tonnes to different markets. They have not sold significantly different number of tonnes globally than they have in any other year. So we know that their overall supply and demand balance in the world has been very similar. So where they pull tonnes out of the U.S., we've had to bring more tonnes into the U.S. to serve it, but you're also seeing tonnes come from places that haven't historically sent tonnes to the U.S. like Australia and Mexico or significant tonnage in terms of that. So you do see a difference in trade flows.

所以今天，俄羅斯人和摩洛哥人所做的是，把原本會運往美國的噸數改導向巴西、印度，或在某些情況下改到加拿大東部。所以他們把一部分噸數移往不同市場。他們在全球銷售的總噸數，並沒有比其他任何一年顯著不同。因此我們知道，他們在全球的整體供需平衡一直非常相近。所以當他們把噸數從美國抽走，我們就必須把更多噸數帶進美國來供應；但你也看到一些過去並不常把貨送到美國的地方開始供貨，例如澳洲和墨西哥，或在這方面出現相當可觀的進口量。所以你確實會看到貿易流向的差異。

So what would happen if that reversed? My expectation is the reversal would create exactly the opposite. We would see more tonnes going from Mosaic to our Brazil business. We would see more tonnes going to India from our Saudi tonnage, et cetera. And there would be other imports coming into the U.S. So overall, we don't think that this is going to make a huge difference. The big difference today is demand is up, Chinese exports are down and we're seeing a growing market and a good demand scenario around the world.

那如果這種情況反轉會怎樣？我的預期是，反轉會造成完全相反的結果。我們會看到更多噸數從 Mosaic 流向我們在巴西的業務。我們會看到更多噸數從我們在沙烏地的貨源流向印度，等等。同時也會有其他進口進入美國。所以整體而言，我們不認為這會造成很大的差異。今天最大的差異在於需求上升、中國出口下降，而我們看到全球市場在成長，且需求情境良好。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Piken from Cleveland Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken。

I just wanted to get a sense on Fertilizantes of how much of the real -- the movement in the real has been a tailwind this year. And basically, if the real were to stabilize, let's say, from this point forward and then we hold all your other forecast that you talked about in terms of Brazilian market growth constant, what type of impact would that have on your margins? So basically, just trying to get a sense for how we should be thinking about that and if the real were to reverse itself a little bit and start to strengthen at some point next year, what that might do to your margins.

我只是想了解一下 Fertilizantes 方面，今年雷亞爾——雷亞爾匯率的波動——到底在多大程度上成為順風。基本上，如果雷亞爾從現在起趨於穩定，然後把你剛才談到的其他所有預測（例如巴西市場成長）都維持不變，這會對你們的利潤率造成什麼樣的影響？所以基本上，我只是想了解我們應該如何看待這件事；以及如果雷亞爾在明年某個時點稍微反轉、開始走強，可能會對你們的利潤率造成什麼影響。

Yes. Look, let me address that in 2 pieces of the business: First is our production business and the other piece is our distribution business.

是的。你看，讓我從業務的兩個部分來說明：第一是我們的生產業務，另一部分是我們的分銷業務。

First of all, let me say, the weakening real, if it's had a biggest impact, it has been on the profitability of the Brazilian farmer. So that has really been what's driving a great demand picture in Brazil. So the Brazilian farmer is doing very well.

首先我想說，巴西雷亞爾走弱，如果說影響最大，那就是對巴西農民的獲利能力。因此，這確實是推動巴西需求景氣的主要因素。所以巴西農民的狀況非常好。

If you look at it in terms of our business, what we would expect is our distribution business is relatively independent of the real pricing. And the reason for that is we buy on U.S. dollars. We sell -- we then hedge that and convert to a Brazilian real number. So really, it doesn't have a huge effect on our overall margins. What it does is it makes a difference to the actual demand.

就我們的業務而言，我們預期分銷業務相對不太受雷亞爾定價影響。原因是我們以美元採購。我們銷售——之後會進行避險並換算成巴西雷亞爾的金額。所以它對我們整體毛利率其實沒有很大的影響。它真正影響的是實際需求。

In terms of our production business, though, obviously, on the shorter term, wages and everything else, Brazil real-based costs go down fairly quickly. So we do see an improvement in cost and a better margin for our production business.

至於我們的生產業務，顯然在較短期內，工資以及其他一切以巴西雷亞爾計價的成本會相當快地下滑。因此我們確實看到成本改善，生產業務的利潤率也更好。

What I will say, though, is if I look at the last couple of quarters, the Brazilian real has been essentially flat. If I look at our statistics for the last 2 quarters, we're 5.37% versus this quarter of 5.38%. So essentially, they've been perfectly flat. So you can assume or surmise from that, that the improvements we're seeing is actual solid improvements in how we're running the business as opposed to a benefit from the exchange rate.

不過我要說的是，如果我看過去幾個季度，巴西雷亞爾基本上是持平的。如果看我們過去兩個季度的統計數據，是5.37%對比本季度的5.38%。所以基本上完全持平。因此你可以假設或推斷，我們看到的改善是我們經營業務方式的紮實改善，而不是匯率帶來的好處。

Our next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自BMO Capital Markets的Joel Jackson。

Joc, one of the larger -- a large phosphate buyer -- as part of the countervailing duty investigation, a large U.S. phosphate buyer publicly have stated that OCP offers different specs than what Mosaic can offer. They mentioned things like solubility. Is this fact, fiction or something in between? And what can you do about it if it's a fact?

Joc，作為反補貼稅調查的一部分，有一位大型磷酸鹽買家——一位大型美國磷酸鹽買家——公開表示OCP提供的規格與Mosaic能提供的不同。他們提到像是溶解度之類的項目。這是事實、虛構，還是介於兩者之間？如果是事實，你們能做些什麼？

Yes, this is the second time. I've had to be relatively direct. No, quality is absolutely not an issue between the 2 commodity products. We do have very small differences in terms of some of the things that are in our product because of what's in the ore, but recognize, this is a manufactured product that takes phosphoric acid, adds ammonia to it to form diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate. These are chemically produced.

是的，這是第二次。我必須相對直接地說。不，兩種大宗商品產品之間的品質絕對不是問題。由於礦石成分不同，我們的產品在某些項目上確實有非常小的差異，但請注意，這是製造產品：以磷酸為原料，加入氨生成磷酸二銨（DAP）和磷酸一銨（MAP）。這些都是化學製程生產的。

We have been selling this commodity in the United States for over 50 years. In that whole time, we have seen great response on the field. And frankly, solubility isn't even one of the specs that is measured for quality.

我們在美國銷售這種大宗商品已超過50年。在這段期間，我們在田間使用上獲得非常好的回饋。坦白說，溶解度甚至不是用來衡量品質的規格之一。

So it is simply a distraction. It is simply a way of taking the focus away from the real issue here and trying to turn a commodity into a specialty product. It just doesn't work unless you're dealing with something like MicroEssentials, in which case, the actual agronomic aspects of it are significantly better than the agronomic aspects of the commodity products. So with that, I'll leave it there.

所以這純粹是轉移焦點。這只是把焦點從真正的議題上移開，並試圖把大宗商品變成特用產品的一種方式。除非你談的是像MicroEssentials這樣的產品，在那種情況下，它的實際農藝表現確實顯著優於大宗商品產品的農藝表現。所以就此我先說到這裡。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

(接線員指示) 下一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Vincent Andrews。

I just wanted to follow-up on the ARO and the environmental charge. I don't think I caught it earlier. I'm not sure if you mentioned it, but I know it was noncash in the quarter. And you talked about there would be some cash liability in the future. I think you gave some dates. But could you actually quantify the amount of cash liability that you'll actually have to pay out in the future?

我想追問一下ARO和環境費用。我想我先前沒有聽清楚。我不確定你是否提到，但我知道本季度是非現金項目。你也談到未來會有一些現金負債。我想你給了一些日期。但你能否量化一下，未來實際需要支付的現金負債金額是多少？

Yes. I'm going to hand that over to Clint, but just let me give you -- look, sorry, muted microphone. I'm going to hand it over to Clint, but let me just give you a little bit of a summary of this first, which is we do -- once a year, we do ARO. It is over a 50-year period where we look at the overall asset retirement obligations that we would have to do.

好的。我會把這個交給Clint，不過先讓我——你看，抱歉，麥克風靜音了。我會交給Clint，但先簡單總結一下：我們每年會做一次ARO。這是以50年的期間來評估我們可能需要承擔的整體資產除役義務。

If we look at the asset retirement obligations themselves, their long-term water treatment at -- particularly, Plant City seems to be the biggest one here. In terms of the rest, it is work around our other Gypstacks, which Clint can talk a little more about. But I just say, these are long-term aspects of the business that we look at.

如果看資產除役義務本身，長期的水處理——尤其是Plant City——似乎是其中最大的一項。至於其他部分，則是圍繞我們其他石膏堆（Gypstacks）的相關工作，Clint可以再多談一些。但我要說的是，這些都是我們所關注的業務長期面向。

And so as we look at the ARO number in particular, first, recall that this is a typical process that we go through in the third quarter of every year, and we make adjustments based on the levels of work that we see. And part of that amount is just in changing things like assumed inflation rates, assumed interest rates and things like that to actually bring that ARO back to current dollars to put on the balance sheet.

因此，當我們特別看ARO數字時，首先請回想，這是我們每年第三季都會進行的例行流程，我們會根據看到的工作量水準進行調整。其中一部分金額只是調整例如假設的通膨率、假設的利率等，將ARO換算回當期美元，以便列在資產負債表上。

The -- I would say the one notable item that's embedded in that number is a reverse osmosis investment that we'll need to make at one of the facilities in the future. I don't think it's imminent, but we'll -- that's something that's been added as we've done more work on the work that needs to be done and as part of the refinement of our future plans. Order of magnitude, that's probably about a $40 million investment when it needs to be made. Otherwise, I think a lot of the adjustment is some of those assumptions that I mentioned a little bit earlier.

我會說，該數字中嵌入的一個較顯著項目，是未來我們需要在某個設施進行的一項逆滲透投資。我不認為這是迫在眉睫，但——這是我們在對所需工作做了更多研究、並精煉未來計畫時新增的項目。以量級來看，當需要執行時，這大概是一筆4,000萬美元的投資。除此之外，我認為多數調整來自我稍早提到的那些假設變動。

And then I think on the environmental remediation, I think the ultimate cash cost is going to be right around the $35 million mark. But again, that will be over multiple years based on the assessments today.

然後在環境整治方面，我認為最終的現金成本大約會落在3,500萬美元左右。但同樣地，依照目前的評估，這會分多年支出。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自JPMorgan的Jeff Zekauskas。

Your quarterly CapEx in potash is about $110 million and your depreciation is about $70 million. So it's about $40 million per quarter above D&A, $160 million per year. Does that incremental $160 million go away and your CapEx go to depreciation when your K3 project is done?

你們鉀肥業務的季度資本支出約為1.10億美元，而折舊約為7,000萬美元。所以每季比折舊與攤銷（D&A）高出約4,000萬美元、每年約1.60億美元。當你們的K3專案完成後，這額外的1.60億美元會消失，資本支出會回到與折舊相當的水準嗎？

Let me hand that straight to Clint. I'm not sure exactly.

我把這個問題直接交給Clint。我不太確定具體情況。

Yes. So typically, outside of our K3 spend, the typical sustaining CapEx level can vary each year, but it's in kind of the $100 million to $200 million per year, midpoint of about $150 million. And that's generally, as an example, what we're seeing this year, from a sustaining level, it's about $150 million. So I think that's what we would expect as we go forward. And obviously, we'll be migrating from K2 and K1 over to K3. We would expect that sustaining spend to migrate with it. And so I think longer term, you will see more alignment between sustaining CapEx spend and depreciation in potash.

是的。一般而言，撇除K3的支出，我們典型的維持性資本支出每年會有所變動，但大致在每年1億到2億美元之間，中位數約1.5億美元。以今年為例，我們看到的維持性支出大約就是1.5億美元。所以我認為這就是我們未來的預期。而且很明顯地，我們會從K2和K1逐步轉移到K3。我們預期維持性支出也會隨之轉移。因此從長期來看，你會看到鉀肥的維持性資本支出與折舊之間會更趨於一致。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Feinberg from Feinberg Investments.

我們的下一個問題來自 Feinberg Investments 的 Jeff Feinberg。

Just want to make sure that I'm understanding the big picture here with all the variables we're talking about. When you talk about the $50 a tonne in the fourth quarter off of the base that we just reported, it looks like we're talking about a run rate of $0.5 billion of EBITDA, provided puts and takes, but am I understanding this dynamic, correct? And if so, then we would have growth from that next year, that run rate of $2 billion? Just to make sure I'm understanding these variables we're describing here.

我只是想確認，我是否正確理解我們所談到的所有變數之下的整體大方向。當你提到第四季在我們剛剛公布的基礎上每噸增加 50 美元時，看起來我們談的是 EBITDA 的運行率約 5 億美元（考量各項增減因素），但我對這個動態的理解正確嗎？如果是的話，那麼明年就會在此基礎上成長，運行率達到 20 億美元？只是想確認我理解我們在這裡描述的這些變數。

Yes. Let me just do a quick in my head here. I think you're saying is -- if I'm getting your question right, is the $50 increase in Q4 going to lead to approximately a $50 million -- or $500 million quarter for EBITDA?

是的。我先在腦中快速算一下。我想你是在說——如果我理解你的問題沒錯——第四季增加 50 美元是否會使 EBITDA 約增加 5,000 萬美元——或是每季 5 億美元？

And let me just do a quick math. I think we sell some 2.2 million -- 2 million to 2.2 million tonnes a quarter. If you multiply that by 50, that would add $100 million to our EBITDA for the quarter. So if you took our today's number and added $100 million, I guess, should be pretty close to a reasonable guess, although you do have to take into account Mosaic Fertilizantes' seasonality and whatnot and quarter-over-quarter there. But yes, I think that's not unreasonable starting point. It's the sensitivity would be about $100 million.

我再快速算一下。我想我們每季銷售大約 220 萬——200 萬到 220 萬噸。如果乘以 50，那會讓我們該季 EBITDA 增加 1 億美元。所以如果把我們今天的數字再加上 1 億美元，我想應該相當接近一個合理的估計；不過你確實需要把 Mosaic Fertilizantes 的季節性等因素，以及其季度間的變動納入考量。但是的，我認為這作為起點並不不合理。其敏感度大約是 1 億美元。

Perfect. I mean there seems to be a lot of skepticism on the sustainability of this, but that $2 billion run rate, it sounds like, given the end market drivers and demand, is a very conservative approach to next year. I want to make sure I'm understanding the message being portrayed.

太好了。我的意思是，市場對其可持續性似乎有很多質疑，但聽起來那個 20 億美元的運行率，考量終端市場驅動因素與需求，是對明年非常保守的看法。我想確認我是否正確理解所傳達的訊息。

Again, if the price holds for 2021, you would again be saying much the same thing. You're looking at 9-ish million tonnes at $50 over today. Again, the calculation is much the same. It would add $0.5 billion.

再說一次，如果 2021 年價格維持不變，你基本上也會說差不多同樣的事情。你看的是大約 900 萬噸、相較於今天每噸高出 50 美元。同樣地，計算方式差不多。它會增加 5 億美元。

Our next question comes from the line of John Roberts from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 John Roberts。

Maybe back to the capital spending question you got earlier, but are we late enough in the year to have an outlook on 2021 at this point? And how many years do you think you can keep your overall CapEx relatively near the current level?

也許回到你先前被問到的資本支出問題，但現在已經接近年底了，我們是否已經能對 2021 年提出展望？以及你認為你們能在多少年內把整體資本支出（CapEx）大致維持在目前水準附近？

I'm going to hand it over to Clint for some clarification on this. But I guess, overall, look, here's our -- our big picture is our longer-term, and 2021 being no exception, our longer-term is we would have $600 million to $700 million of sustaining capital. And then today, what we're seeing is other improvement capitals and whatnot, but the big one that starts dropping off after 2022 is, of course, the $300 million or so we're spending on Esterhazy K3. So that capital spending comes down, but there are other areas of improvement and high-return projects that we may want to put in there.

我把這個問題交給 Clint 來做一些釐清。但我想，整體來看，我們的大方向是長期規劃，而 2021 年也不例外；從長期來看，我們的維持性資本支出會是 6 億到 7 億美元。而目前我們看到還有其他改善性資本支出等等，但在 2022 年之後開始下降的最大項目，當然是我們在 Esterhazy K3 上投入的大約 3 億美元。因此那部分資本支出會下降，但也有其他改善領域與高報酬專案，我們可能會想納入其中。

So how long can we maintain it flat? I think, certainly, it will go down over time. How much goes down depends on opportunity.

所以我們能維持持平多久？我認為，當然，隨著時間推移它會下降。下降多少取決於機會。

There are no questions in the queue.

目前佇列中沒有問題。

I think we've come to a close now. And before I close, I'd like to invite you all to enjoy -- join us on November 9 at 9 a.m. for our in-depth presentation on Mosaic Fertilizantes and our South American strategy.

我想我們現在要結束了。在我結束之前，我想邀請各位在 11 月 9 日上午 9 點參加我們關於 Mosaic Fertilizantes 以及我們南美策略的深入簡報。

So with that, I want to wrap up today's call. Mosaic continues to execute extremely well. We are increasing our global competitiveness by driving costs down. And we're managing well through the challenges of COVID-19. With the tailwinds we're seeing today from improving fertilizer and agricultural markets, we expect strong results to continue through the end of the year and well into 2021.

那麼，我想結束今天的電話會議。Mosaic 持續以極佳的表現執行各項工作。我們透過降低成本來提升全球競爭力。同時，我們也在 COVID-19 的挑戰下妥善應對。在我們今天看到肥料與農業市場改善所帶來的順風之下，我們預期強勁的成果將持續到年底，並延續至 2021 年。

So thank you for joining us. And again, come back next week for our South American detail.

感謝各位加入我們。也再次邀請各位下週回來聆聽我們南美業務的詳細說明。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating and you may now disconnect. Have a great day.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與，您現在可以掛線。祝各位有美好的一天。