美盛公司 (MOS) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Thank you for listening in on our first quarter virtual fireside chat. By now, you've seen our earnings release and the commentary, and so we would like to spend an hour or so answering the questions we received last night. We'll do our best to answer every question, and we've consolidated questions where they're similar to each other.

各位早安。感謝各位收聽我們第一季的線上爐邊談話。到目前為止，各位應該已經看過我們的財報新聞稿與相關評論，因此我們想花大約一小時回答昨晚收到的問題。我們會盡力回答每一個問題，並且已將內容相近的問題加以整併。

Before we begin, I would like to reiterate our key themes. First, our markets are holding up well and global fertilizer demand is strong. COVID-19 has obviously made for a very dynamic business environment, and agriculture must and will continue to produce. And secondly, we're delivering strong operating performance and making real strategic progress across the company. We've lowered costs, increased efficiency and created leverage for the years ahead.

在開始之前，我想再次強調我們的核心主題。第一，我們的市場表現依然穩健，全球肥料需求強勁。COVID-19 顯然使商業環境非常動態，但農業必須且將持續生產。第二，我們正展現強勁的營運表現，並在全公司範圍內取得實質的策略性進展。我們已降低成本、提升效率，並為未來幾年建立槓桿。

So now, Laura, let's take the first question.

那麼現在，Laura，我們來看第一個問題。

Joc, we've received similar questions from Rikin Patel at Berenberg and Chris Parkinson at Crédit Suisse. Given your progress on per tonne costs, can you comment on any updated projects versus your initial goals in all 3 segments? How sustainable are these cost levels going forward? And could there be further upside, considering that it's only first quarter '20? Finally, is there any scope to accelerate some of the company's cost reduction plans that were meant for 2021 into this year?

Joc，我們收到來自 Berenberg 的 Rikin Patel 與瑞信（Crédit Suisse）的 Chris Parkinson 類似的問題。鑑於你們在每噸成本方面的進展，能否就三大事業部在各項專案相對於初始目標的最新情況做些評論？這些成本水準在未來的可持續性如何？另外，考量目前僅是 2020 年第一季，是否還可能有進一步上行空間？最後，是否有空間將原本規劃於 2021 年的部分降本計畫加速到今年執行？

Thank you for your question. Look, as we continue to pursue transformational opportunities across our business, we are looking at what are the critical few projects that we can continue through this COVID-19 that really will make a difference over the long term for Mosaic. In potash, the first of these, of course, is the K3 development. Today, we have 3 [miners] running, soon to have 4. And by the end of the year, we'll be close to eliminating the need for the K1 mine. That's a big step forward in this project and really a nice segue into having no need for brine inflow costs and pushing K3 to being the most efficient mine in the world.

謝謝你的提問。你看，當我們持續在整個業務中尋求轉型機會時，我們也在評估在這段 COVID-19 期間，哪些是我們仍能持續推進、且能在長期為 Mosaic 帶來重大差異的少數關鍵專案。在鉀肥方面，第一個當然是 K3 開發案。目前我們有 3 台 [miners] 在運轉，很快會增加到 4 台。到今年年底，我們將接近不再需要 K1 礦。這是該專案向前邁出的一大步，也很好地銜接到不再需要鹵水流入成本，並推動 K3 成為全球效率最高的礦場。

In terms of Fertilizantes, whether it's the optimization of freight or cost reductions and -- through energy and our beneficiation or driving our rock costs lower, we're well on track towards our 2020 and 2021 cost reduction targets there. And of course, if we can accelerate those, we will.

在 Fertilizantes 方面，無論是運輸費用的最佳化，或是透過能源、選礦（beneficiation）來降本，以及推動降低我們的礦石成本，我們都正穩步朝向 2020 與 2021 年的降本目標前進。當然，如果能加速，我們就會加速。

In phosphates, whether it's our next-generation mining initiative or our next-gen processing initiatives, we're using technology and automation to drive costs and drive efficiency in that business.

在磷肥方面，無論是我們的下一代採礦計畫，或是下一代加工處理計畫，我們都在運用科技與自動化來降低成本並提升該業務的效率。

So across the business, despite the interference of COVID, we are really pushing on those critical ones that will make a difference in the long term to Mosaic.

因此在整個公司層面，儘管受到 COVID 的干擾，我們仍在全力推進那些對 Mosaic 長期而言真正能帶來差異的關鍵事項。

Joc, PJ Juvekar at Citi asks, "How are you thinking about your EBITDA covenant? And what happens if EBITDA continues to fall?"

Joc，花旗（Citi）的 PJ Juvekar 問：「你們如何看待 EBITDA 的契約條款？如果 EBITDA 持續下滑會怎麼樣？」

Thank you, PJ. We are comfortably above our EBITDA to interest rate covenants, but what I will do here is I'll let Clint give you some details on that.

謝謝你，PJ。我們目前在 EBITDA 對利息的契約要求之上仍相當寬裕，不過我這裡先請 Clint 提供一些細節。

Okay. Thanks, Joc, and thanks, PJ, for your question. As Joc said, I think the question that you have really focuses in on our interest coverage ratio which uses adjusted EBITDA. And as Joc said, we have plenty of room in that ratio right now. It is calculated on a rolling 4-quarter basis, so certainly keep that in mind.

好的。謝謝，Joc，也謝謝 PJ 的提問。如 Joc 所說，我認為你這個問題主要聚焦在我們的利息保障倍數（interest coverage ratio），其計算使用調整後 EBITDA。正如 Joc 所說，我們目前在該比率上仍有很大的緩衝空間。它是以滾動的四季基礎計算，所以請務必把這點納入考量。

The other thing is, as you're calculating that, to keep in mind is that similar to our reported adjusted EBITDA, the covenant does adjust for things like foreign exchange gains and losses, share-based compensation expense and losses for asset write-downs. So just be sure that you're adjusting your math for those items as you're looking at that ratio.

另外，在你計算時也要注意：與我們對外揭露的調整後 EBITDA 類似，契約計算也會針對外匯損益、股份基礎給付費用，以及資產減損損失等項目進行調整。因此在你檢視該比率時，請確保你的計算也把這些項目納入調整。

Joc, this next question comes from Jonas Oxgaard at Bernstein. You spent $264 million on CapEx in Q1, but you're still guiding to $1.2 billion for the year. Run rate for Q1 is $1.05 billion. Are you picking up spending in quarters 2 through 4? And if so, why?

Joc，下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Jonas Oxgaard。你們在第一季的資本支出（CapEx）為 2.64 億美元，但全年指引仍為 12 億美元。以第一季的執行速度推算為 10.5 億美元。你們會在第二到第四季提高支出嗎？如果會，原因是什麼？

Thank you, Jonas. Yes, we did make a conscious effort to conserve cash in Q1, and we normally do that as that is our lowest cash flow quarter. So we try not to spend as much capital in that quarter if we can help it. And with COVID, we were even more focused in the first quarter. But we do expect some acceleration of spending as we go through the year, particularly in the summer months in Canada. As you know, K3 is our biggest expenditure -- single expenditure area. And on that, a lot of that work is going to go this summer. But we believe that, that work is necessary, and as we've said previously, will drive lower cost and more efficiency in the long run.

謝謝你，Jonas。是的，我們在第一季確實有意識地保留現金，而我們通常也會這麼做，因為第一季通常是我們現金流最低的季度。因此如果可以，我們會盡量在該季度少花一些資本支出。而在 COVID 的情況下，我們在第一季更為聚焦。不過，隨著年度推進，我們預期支出會有所加速，特別是在加拿大的夏季月份。如你所知，K3 是我們最大的支出——也是單一最大的支出領域。就 K3 而言，許多工作將在今年夏天進行。但我們認為這些工作是必要的，而且如我們先前所說，長期而言將帶來更低成本與更高效率。

In terms of other capital, yes, by all means, we're going to try and minimize what we do throughout the end of the year. But at the same time, we still have to look after the quality of our assets and the safety of our people. That is always our first focus.

至於其他資本支出，沒錯，我們會盡一切努力在今年剩餘時間把支出降到最低。但同時，我們仍必須維護資產品質並確保員工安全。這永遠是我們的首要重點。

Joc, this next question comes from Chris Parkinson at Crédit Suisse. How should we think about transportation and logistics costs in terms of both inland and seaborne freight? Is it safe to say rates could be a minor tailwind to FOB netback prices?

Joc，下一個問題來自瑞信（Crédit Suisse）的 Chris Parkinson。就內陸與海運運費而言，我們應如何看待運輸與物流成本？可以說運價可能對 FOB 淨回收價格（netback prices）帶來小幅順風嗎？

Thank you, Chris. Yes. We're definitely enjoying lower transportation costs right now which is providing a bit of a tailwind. Of course, the cost of fuel is helping us from a rail and ocean freight perspective. And on rail, there's an extra efficiency in that we're not transporting as much of other products, so it adds a lot more availability to us. In terms of ocean freight, while ocean freight is helping us, it's also helping the whole industry. And so the bigger impact there is it will probably trade -- change the trade flows rather than make a real difference to our competitiveness.

謝謝你，Chris。是的，我們目前確實受惠於較低的運輸成本，這帶來了一點順風。當然，燃料成本下降在鐵路與海運運費方面都對我們有利。至於鐵路，還有一項額外效率：由於其他產品的運輸量較少，對我們而言可用運能增加了很多。就海運運費而言，雖然海運運費對我們有利，但它也同樣有利於整個產業。因此更大的影響可能是改變貿易流向，而不是對我們的競爭力造成實質差異。

This next question comes from Jonas Oxgaard at Bernstein. Can you talk about the drivers of differences between rock costs per tonne in Florida versus Brazil? What is the long-term goal for Brazilian rock costs? And what is the rock costs per tonne in Peru?

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Jonas Oxgaard。你能談談佛羅里達與巴西每噸礦石成本差異的驅動因素嗎？巴西礦石成本的長期目標是什麼？另外，秘魯的每噸礦石成本是多少？

Thank you, Jonas, for the question. In terms of our rock mining costs, we have a very different mining method in Florida versus Brazil. And the main reason for that is, in Florida, we have a sedimentary deposit where we're able to use large draglines to move the rock. In Brazil, it's an igneous deposit, and we have to blast and use truck and shovel to move the ore in that situation. So Brazil will always have a slightly higher cost per tonne than the U.S. will have, but the advantage, of course, is you don't have freight from the coast up to our growing regions or up to Uberaba which is where we will use the rock. So in location, it's very competitive.

謝謝你，Jonas 的提問。就我們的礦石採礦成本而言，佛羅里達與巴西採用的採礦方式非常不同。主要原因是：在佛羅里達，我們的礦床屬於沉積型（sedimentary deposit），因此可以使用大型拉鏟挖掘機（draglines）來移動礦石；而在巴西，礦床屬於火成岩（igneous deposit），在那種情況下我們必須進行爆破，並使用卡車與挖掘機（truck and shovel）來搬運礦石。因此巴西的每噸成本將永遠略高於美國；但其優勢當然是，不需要把貨物從海岸運到我們的成長區域，或運到 Uberaba（我們將在那裡使用礦石）。因此就地理位置而言，它非常具有競爭力。

Long term, we've put out our goals as having rock costs in the range of BRL 300 per tonne. We still see that as being a good goal, and we believe we'll achieve that goal. Matter of fact, I think we've achieved that goal this year. So we're doing well on rock costs. We expect to continuously improve, and that's really a good thing.

長期而言，我們已公布的目標是將礦石成本控制在每噸 300 巴西雷亞爾（BRL）的區間。我們仍認為這是一個良好的目標，並相信我們會達成。事實上，我認為我們今年已經達成了這個目標。因此我們在礦石成本方面表現良好。我們預期會持續改善，而這確實是一件好事。

In terms of Peru, again, it's a truck and shovel operation, but it is a sedimentary rock, so we don't have to blast. So they have pretty good costs. They're somewhere in between our Florida costs and our Brazilian costs.

就秘魯而言，同樣是卡車與挖掘機的作業模式，但它是沉積岩，因此我們不需要爆破。所以他們的成本相當不錯。大約介於我們佛羅里達的成本與巴西的成本之間。

Joc, the next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Can you provide some additional detail related to how Mosaic will realize the sales for the new China contract? And how much Chinese potash volume will your second quarter results reflect? When will you recognize the volumes in the bonded warehouses in China?

Joc，下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews。你能否提供更多細節，說明 Mosaic 將如何就新的中國合約實現銷售？以及你們第二季的業績將反映多少中國鉀肥銷量？你們何時會認列中國保稅倉庫中的銷量？

Thank you, Vincent. The way we deal with potash sales outside of Canada is through Canpotex, and we follow Canpotex's revenue recognition standards. So those funds in bonded warehouses have largely been recognized. Although I will say there will have to be an adjustment for changes in price that we will recognize in Q2.

謝謝你，Vincent。我們在加拿大以外的鉀肥銷售是透過 Canpotex 進行，並遵循 Canpotex 的收入認列準則。因此，那些在保稅倉庫中的資金大多已經認列。不過我會說，因價格變動而需要做的調整，我們會在第二季認列。

Now in terms of the -- a lot of those tonnes, they are actually going to be directed to our own distribution business. And so they're sitting today in our corporate segment in profit and inventory, and so that will move as we make the final sale of those products.

至於——其中很多噸數實際上將會導向我們自有的通路分銷業務。因此它們目前在我們公司部門中，以利潤與存貨的形式呈現，並且會在我們完成這些產品的最終銷售時再移轉。

Joc, we have a multipart question from Seth Goldstein from Morningside (sic) [Morningstar] Research, and this all pertains to K3. What is the expected effective production capacity for 2020? What is our total expected production as a percent of total or in tonnes? And should Mosaic decide to reduce potash production, would any of it come from K3?

Joc，我們收到來自 Morningside（原文如此）[Morningstar] Research 的 Seth Goldstein 的多段式問題，全部都與 K3 有關。2020 年預期的有效產能是多少？我們預期的總產量占總量的百分比或以噸數計是多少？以及若 Mosaic 決定降低鉀肥產量，是否會有任何減產來自 K3？

Thank you, Seth. As we look at 2020 and K3, by the end of the year, we expect we'll be running in that 2.5 million to 3 million tonnes per year of actual potash produce coming out of K3. As I said earlier, that will allow us to virtually eliminate the K1 mine and have all the K1 plant be fed by the K3 mine.

謝謝你，Seth。就 2020 年與 K3 而言，到年底我們預期 K3 實際產出的鉀肥年化產量將運行在每年 250 萬到 300 萬噸的水準。如我先前所說，這將使我們幾乎可以淘汰 K1 礦，並讓整個 K1 工廠都由 K3 礦供料。

In terms of this year, we expect to exceed the 1 million tonnes that we've previously announced, and we should produce somewhere between 1 million and 1.5 million tonnes of actual production from the K3 mine. If we have to turn down production, certainly, it will not be from K3, which is, by far, our most efficient underground production today.

就今年而言，我們預期將超過先前公布的 100 萬噸，K3 礦的實際產量應會落在 100 萬到 150 萬噸之間。如果我們必須下調產量，當然不會從 K3 著手，因為 K3 目前是我們效率最高的地下開採產能，遠遠領先其他。

Joc, our next question comes from Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley. How much volume in North America was actually pulled forward from Q2 into Q1?

Joc，下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。北美地區實際上有多少銷量是從第二季提前到第一季？

Thank you, Vincent. In fact, if we look at the volumes, probably the bigger impact on volume was what would have been Q4 volume last year coming into Q1. We had a late fall, but it continued well into the late, late fall and into the winter months, and so the revenue recognition in Q1 was impacted by tonnes that would have normally moved earlier in the year in Q4.

謝謝你，Vincent。事實上，如果我們看銷量，對銷量影響更大的，可能是原本去年第四季的量移入了今年第一季。我們去年秋季較晚，但一直延續到非常晚的秋季並進入冬季月份，因此第一季的收入認列受到影響，因為有些噸數原本通常會在去年第四季較早移動。

In terms of moving tonnes from Q1 from Q2, I think that effect will be minimal. As although we got acceleration of people ordering and taking delivery, there is a lag for revenue recognition. And so from a revenue recognition perspective, many of the tons that might have been shipped in March will actually be recognized in the second quarter.

至於把第二季的噸數移到第一季，我認為影響會很小。雖然我們確實看到客戶下單與提貨加速，但收入認列存在時間落差。因此從收入認列角度來看，許多可能在三月出貨的噸數，實際上會在第二季才被認列。

Joc, the next couple of questions retain to Mosaic Fertilizantes. Steve Byrne from Bank of America wants to know what is the long-term growth potential for the Fertilizantes business. Is it becoming a bigger producer or a larger distributor or to expand into full-service retail?

Joc，接下來幾個問題與 Mosaic Fertilizantes 有關。美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne 想了解 Fertilizantes 業務的長期成長潛力。它會成為更大的生產商、或更大的分銷商，或是擴展到全方位服務的零售？

Thank you, Steve. As you're well aware, there is great, long-term potential for Mosaic Fertilizantes. This business gives Mosaic a real first-mover advantage in Brazil. And as such, we think there's tremendous opportunities to become either a bigger producer through organic or inorganic means. It allows us an avenue to distribute our value-added products like MicroEssentials and continue to grow that market.

謝謝你，Steve。如你所知，Mosaic Fertilizantes 具有很大的長期潛力。這項業務讓 Mosaic 在巴西擁有真正的先行者優勢。因此，我們認為無論透過內生成長或外延併購，都有巨大的機會成為更大的生產商。它也讓我們有一條途徑去分銷像 MicroEssentials 這類高附加價值產品，並持續擴大該市場。

In terms of whether we would move into a more retail base, at this stage, that isn't really our strategy. And we don't believe that that's where this business should go in the long term.

至於我們是否會走向更偏零售的模式，在現階段那並不是我們的策略。而且我們不認為這會是這項業務長期應該前往的方向。

Joc, the next question comes again from Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley. With the significant devaluation of the real in 2020, how much will that impact Mosaic's gross profit and how much will impact the SG&A line?

Joc，下一個問題同樣來自摩根士丹利的 Vincent Andrews。鑑於 2020 年雷亞爾大幅貶值，這將對 Mosaic 的毛利造成多大影響？又會對 SG&A（銷售、一般及行政費用）項目造成多大影響？

Thank you, Vincent. We have provided sensitivity changes in FX rate in the appendixes. However, what I will emphasize is these were done on an unhedged base. So when you think about it, you have to think about the fact that we have hedged about half of our real-based exposure.

謝謝你，Vincent。我們已在附錄中提供匯率變動的敏感度。不過我要強調的是，這些是以未避險為基礎計算的。因此在思考時，你必須考量到我們已對約一半以雷亞爾計價的曝險進行避險。

In terms of SG&A, about 1/3 of our costs in SG&A are actually real-based. So that gives you an idea on the impact to Brazilian SG&A.

就 SG&A 而言，我們 SG&A 成本中約有三分之一實際上是以雷亞爾為基礎。因此這能讓你對巴西 SG&A 的影響有個概念。

The next few questions, Joc, pertain to our Phosphates segment. So both Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs and Mark Connelly from Stephens are interested in hearing Mosaic's perspective on the outlook for sulfur over the balance of 2020 given the curtailments in the global energy sector and the implications for input costs. Can and would you carry higher-than-normal sulfur inventory through the course of 2020 and into 2021?

接下來幾個問題，Joc，與我們的磷酸鹽（Phosphates）部門有關。因此，高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson 與 Stephens 的 Mark Connelly 都希望聽到 Mosaic 對 2020 年剩餘期間硫磺展望的看法，考量到全球能源產業的減產以及其對投入成本的影響。你們是否能、以及是否會在 2020 年期間並延續到 2021 年，持有高於正常水準的硫磺庫存？

Thank you, guys. Certainly, the oil industry disruption is having a knock-on effect in terms of sulfur. At Mosaic, there's 2 things we're doing to really help our sulfur situation. One, as you suggested, we are moving to a higher level of inventory to make sure we have a better buffer. And then secondly, we've actually been sourcing cheap or cheap-ish sulfuric acid to supplement our supply. Now that has worked out quite well because other industries have slowed down. But in terms of the overall world sulfur market, one of the things I will say is Mosaic is probably better positioned than most because of our position in the U.S. Gulf. And remember, in the U.S. Gulf, while the production is down, they're using more heavy crude right now, which produces more sulfur. Certainly, there is going to be periodic and localized sulfur deficiencies around the globe. But I think in that, Mosaic will be positioned best to weather the storm.

謝謝各位。當然，石油產業的擾動對硫磺產生了連鎖效應。在 Mosaic，我們主要做兩件事來改善硫磺供應情況。第一，如你們所提，我們把庫存提高到更高水位，以確保有更好的緩衝。第二，我們實際上也在採購便宜或相對便宜的硫酸來補充供應。由於其他產業放緩，這一點目前運作得相當不錯。不過就全球硫磺市場整體而言，我要說的是，Mosaic 可能比多數同業處於更有利的位置，因為我們在美國墨西哥灣沿岸的布局。請記得，在美國墨西哥灣沿岸，雖然產量下降，但目前使用較多重質原油，而重質原油會產生更多硫磺。全球各地確實會出現週期性且局部的硫磺短缺，但我認為在這種情況下，Mosaic 將是最有能力安然度過風暴的公司之一。

Joc, both Mark Connelly from Stephens and Seth Goldstein from Morningside (sic) [Morningstar] have questions related to our MicroEssentials product. First, what are the main things Mosaic needs to do to reach its MicroEssentials sales target for 2021? Is there a trade-off in application between soy and corn-planted acres? How would crop prices remain at or near current levels affect the pace or probability of reaching that target? And finally, how much do you expect Brazil to contribute to MicroEssentials growth in 2020?

Joc，Stephens 的 Mark Connelly 與 Morningside（原文如此）[Morningstar] 的 Seth Goldstein 都有與我們 MicroEssentials 產品相關的問題。首先，Mosaic 要達成 2021 年 MicroEssentials 銷售目標，最主要需要做哪些事情？在大豆與玉米種植面積之間，施用上是否存在取捨？如果作物價格維持在目前水準或接近目前水準，會如何影響達成該目標的速度或機率？最後，你預期 2020 年巴西對 MicroEssentials 成長的貢獻會有多少？

Thanks, folks. I'm going to hand this one straight to Rick because I think he can give a more complete answer.

謝謝各位。我會把這題直接交給 Rick，因為我認為他能給出更完整的回答。

Yes. Thanks, Joc. And for us to kind of achieve the goals we have for MicroEssentials, we need to continue to provide the agronomic support that we're doing to customers and to dealers that distribute the product as well as we need to help them focus on maximizing the returns to their crops. And in years where crop prices get difficult, we can -- we see that people focus on maximizing the return, and we've seen good growth in MicroEssentials.

是的。謝謝你，Joc。就我們要達成 MicroEssentials 的目標而言，我們需要持續為客戶以及分銷該產品的經銷商提供我們正在做的農藝支援，同時也需要協助他們把重點放在最大化作物回報。在作物價格變得艱難的年份，我們——我們看到大家會更專注於最大化回報，而我們也看到 MicroEssentials 有不錯的成長。

As far as the corn and soybean ratio, we've got products that are specific to -- MicroEssentials products that are specific to corn, to soybeans, to canola, and we'll match up the needs of the farmer and the needs of the crop.

就玉米與大豆的配比而言，我們有針對性的產品——專門用於玉米、用於大豆、用於油菜籽的 MicroEssentials 產品，我們會把農民的需求與作物的需求相匹配。

Thanks, Rick. And let me add, because North America is a mature market, the growth there is somewhat slower than in other markets. And in Brazil, we expect up to 60% of our growth will come from that market.

謝謝你，Rick。我再補充一下，因為北美是一個成熟市場，那裡的成長相較其他市場會慢一些。而在巴西，我們預期多達 60% 的成長將來自該市場。

Joc, we have another MicroEssentials-related question. What is the expected mix of shift between commodity products and MicroEssentials or other specialty products? And would this impact the margin mix?

Joc，我們還有一個與 MicroEssentials 相關的問題。大宗商品產品與 MicroEssentials 或其他特種產品之間，預期的組合轉移幅度會是多少？這會影響毛利組合嗎？

Thanks, Joel. Our 2021 goal continues to be achieving a final MicroEssentials sales number of about 3.7 million tonnes, and that normally gives us an average premium of about $40 a ton over DAP and MAP. So it is certainly our best margin product in phosphate.

謝謝你，Joel。我們 2021 年的目標仍然是達成 MicroEssentials 最終銷量約 370 萬噸，這通常能讓我們相較 DAP 與 MAP 取得每噸約 40 美元的平均溢價。因此，這確實是我們在磷酸鹽業務中毛利最佳的產品。

And in terms of Brazil, we take not only the producer margin, but we also give the retailer, the distributor margin there. And so in Brazil, it's, by far, our most profitable and really adds to our margins.

至於巴西，我們不僅取得生產商的利潤，我們也會讓零售商、經銷商在當地取得利潤。因此在巴西，這無疑是我們最賺錢的市場，並且確實有助於提升我們的利潤率。

Joc, Joel Jackson from BMO asks, "What levers does Mosaic have to ensure phosphate doesn't continue in negative margin territory under the current pricing environment?"

Joc，BMO 的 Joel Jackson 問：「在目前的定價環境下，Mosaic 有哪些槓桿可以確保磷酸鹽不會持續處於負毛利區間？」

Well, thank you, guys. Let me answer those one at a time. Certainly, our next-gen mining and next-gen processing will improve both our recovery rates and our costs in the phosphate business. Also, we're doing other things like considering the integration of our Phosphate and Potash business, which takes significant costs out of those businesses. So it's not just the technology. It's all the other day-to-day stuff that goes with it.

好的，謝謝各位。我逐一回答。首先，我們的下一代採礦與下一代加工將同時改善磷酸鹽業務的回收率與成本。另外，我們也在做其他事情，例如考慮整合我們的磷酸鹽與鉀肥業務，這能為這些業務大幅降低成本。所以不只是技術，還包括所有伴隨而來的日常營運工作。

In terms of phosphate production reductions, we've always said we will match the needs of our customers with our production. At this stage, we believe that we are matching that effectively, and there will be no need for production reductions. And we believe that the demand is there today, so prices should follow in time.

就磷酸鹽減產而言，我們一直說會以客戶需求來匹配我們的產量。在現階段，我們相信我們已有效做到匹配，因此不需要減產。我們也相信目前需求確實存在，所以價格應會隨時間推進而跟上。

In terms of our overall costs, these have been pretty much constant in Phosphates for up to 10 years. And we're able to, each year, improve in such a way that we're taking the impact of inflation out of our cost, which I think is actually making us much more competitive in the long term.

就我們的整體成本而言，磷酸鹽業務的成本在過去長達 10 年幾乎維持不變。而且我們每年都能以某種方式改善，將通膨對成本的影響抵消掉；我認為這實際上讓我們在長期更具競爭力。

Joc, Chris Parkinson from Crédit Suisse asks, "What is your forecast for long-term stripping margin assumptions based on your outlook for raw materials and the view on marginal cost of production out of China?"

Joc，瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Chris Parkinson 問：「基於你對原物料的展望，以及對中國邊際生產成本的看法，你對長期剝採利潤（stripping margin）假設的預測是什麼？」

Thank you, Chris. As we look forward and we look at the raw materials, we believe those basically are passed on to the consumer. So if we look at a balanced market for phosphate, we would look at probably what we've said before, which is a net global price in that range of $285 to $310. Obviously, at times, it's going to be below that and above that at other times, but if we look to the long-term average, I think that's where we would post it.

謝謝你，Chris。展望未來並看原物料時，我們認為這些基本上會轉嫁給消費者。因此，如果我們看磷酸鹽的均衡市場，我們大概會回到先前所說的：全球淨價大約落在每噸 285 到 310 美元的區間。當然，有時會低於、有時會高於該區間，但若看長期平均，我認為我們會把它放在那個水準。

Joc, I'm going to move on to the market-related questions. Many of them were multi-parts, and I've done my best to summarize those. The first question comes from Ben Isaacson at Scotia, Seth Goldstein at Morningside (sic) [Morningstar] and Rikin Patel at Bernberg. They've all asked about new Chinese contract pricing, including when do you think the seaborne trade to China will pick up again given the amount of potash in bonded warehouses? How did the price compare to your expectations? And how frequently do you expect these contracts to reset, in another 12 months or 18 months? And what is the outlook for volumes contracted to China and India?

Joc，我接下來要轉到市場相關問題。很多問題是多段式的，我已盡力加以摘要。第一個問題來自 Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson、Morningside（原文如此）[Morningstar] 的 Seth Goldstein，以及 Bernberg 的 Rikin Patel。他們都問到新的中國合約定價，包括：考量到保稅倉庫中有大量鉀肥，你認為對中國的海運貿易何時會再度回升？價格與你的預期相比如何？你預期這些合約多久會重設一次，是再 12 個月或 18 個月？以及對中國與印度的合約量展望如何？

Thank you, guys. Let me take these one at a time. First of all, we expect that the actual shipments to China will start almost immediately. Yes, there is material in bonded warehouses, but our expectation is that will go and start filling up the NPK plants and the retailers very quickly. And what will come behind will be the retail for the fall.

謝謝各位。我逐一回答。首先，我們預期對中國的實際出貨幾乎會立刻開始。是的，保稅倉庫裡有貨，但我們預期那批貨會很快流出，並迅速補進 NPK 工廠與零售端。接下來帶動的將是秋季的零售需求。

How does the price compare to our expectations in that, certainly, we're disappointed in a price as low as came in. But I will emphasize, China is still an important base contract, and the thing there is to get the volumes moving. We've already seen the ability to move prices up in Brazil since we got that contract settled. So the big thing there is really, get it done, move forward and work on moving prices up in the rest of the world.

價格與我們的預期相比如何？坦白說，我們對價格低到那樣感到失望。但我要強調，中國仍是重要的基準合約，關鍵在於讓量動起來。我們已經看到，自從該合約敲定後，我們在巴西有能力把價格往上推。因此重點就是把事情做完、往前走，並努力推升世界其他地區的價格。

The third piece, in terms of volume for China and India, we do expect imports to China will be down slightly to, I think, around 8 million tonnes. And in terms of India, they'll be up maybe 0.5 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes. So basically, the 2 of them kind of balance off, and we see a fairly flat year for those 2 big contracts.

第三點，關於中國與印度的量，我們確實預期中國進口會小幅下滑到大約 800 萬噸左右。至於印度，可能會增加約 50 萬噸到 450 萬噸。基本上兩者大致互相抵消，因此我們認為這兩個大型合約今年整體會相當持平。

Joc, the next question comes from Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley, specifically addressing Slide 5. Slide 5 argues that the 2020 Chinese potash contract could set off a similar potash price run as the settlement did in 2016. What are the similarities and differences to S&D, U.S. dollar and soft commodity prices that both support and refute such a comparison. And in particular, given the substantial volume sitting in Chinese bonded warehouses today, will the potash market really be able to have a near-term price upswing if the industry is not actually shipping material incremental potash to China in the next quarter or so?

Joc，下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews，特別針對投影片 5。投影片 5 認為，2020 年中國鉀肥合約可能引發類似 2016 年和解後的鉀肥價格上行。就供需（S&D）、美元與軟性商品價格而言，有哪些相似與差異之處，既支持也反駁這樣的比較？尤其是，考量到目前仍有大量庫存放在中國保稅倉庫，如果產業在接下來一季左右並未實際向中國增量出貨鉀肥，鉀肥市場真的能在短期內出現價格上揚嗎？

Thank you, Vincent. Let me hand this straight over to Rick, and he can give you a good answer on that one.

謝謝你，Vincent。我把這題直接交給 Rick，讓他給你一個好的回答。

Yes. Thanks, Joc. And Vincent, it really is amazing how much this year lines up to what we observed coming out of 2016 and the settlement from China. The industry sentiment at the time after entering through a period of prolonged oversupply, it was -- the expectation was for the prices to remain soft. But the fact that the China volume occurred and the contract occurred almost immediately, we saw the market kind of step up. And I think one of the questions that you need to ask yourself are what are the similarities that are happening today that are -- that happened at the last time. Generally speaking, the dollar is not much different than it was 3 to 4 years ago with the exception of Brazil, which, frankly, is positive for commodities. Ag commodity prices, for the most part, were weaker today than they were in '16 and '17. But if you remember, we also saw corn futures bouncing around the low $3 range then as well. And the other current uncertainty is the COVID-19. But we think, overall, this is a very good analogy to look at and to understand. And to the question of can we see price upticks, we're already seeing that in Brazil where we've sold potash at a much higher level.

是的，謝謝你，Joc。Vincent，今年與我們在 2016 年中國和解後所觀察到的情況高度吻合，確實令人驚訝。當時產業在經歷一段長期供給過剩後，市場情緒——大家的預期是價格會維持疲弱。但由於中國的合約量幾乎立刻發生、合約也很快敲定，我們看到市場開始有所抬升。我認為你需要問自己的其中一個問題是：今天正在發生、且與上次相似的因素有哪些？一般而言，美元與 3 到 4 年前差異不大，例外是巴西；坦白說，這對大宗商品是正面的。農產品價格大多比 2016、2017 年更弱。但如果你記得，當時玉米期貨也同樣在 3 美元出頭的低檔區間震盪。另一個當前的不確定性是 COVID-19。但我們整體認為，這是一個非常好的類比，有助於觀察與理解。至於能否看到價格上揚，我們已經在巴西看到了——我們以更高的水準賣出了鉀肥。

Chris Parkinson at Crédit Suisse and PJ Juvekar from Citi both have questions on the potash cost curve. So Joc, can you discuss your views of the global potash cost curve? And who might be profitable at a $215 per metric tonne CFR Brazil price? In particular, what is the benefit of the depreciation in the Russian ruble for Russian producers? And do you think $220 per tonne marks the near term for it?

瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Chris Parkinson 與花旗（Citi）的 PJ Juvekar 都對鉀肥成本曲線提出問題。所以 Joc，你能談談你對全球鉀肥成本曲線的看法嗎？以及在 CFR 巴西每公噸 215 美元的價格下，哪些業者可能仍有利可圖？特別是，俄羅斯盧布貶值對俄羅斯生產商的好處是什麼？你認為每噸 220 美元是否是其短期水準？

Thank you for your question, guys. There's no question that even at $215, the players on the far left of the cost curve, particularly the Russians and the Belorussians, right now will be cash positive at $215 CFR Brazil price. But remember, that does not include the cost of sustaining those businesses, replacing reserves, et cetera. So I don't think it's a long-term sustainable cost. But I believe the lower-cost players will be reasonably comfortable at those costs for a short period of time.

謝謝各位的提問。毫無疑問，即使在每噸 215 美元的水準，成本曲線最左側的業者，特別是俄羅斯與白俄羅斯的業者，目前在 215 美元 CFR 巴西價格下仍會有正向現金流。但請記住，這不包含維持這些業務運作、補充/替換儲量等成本。因此我不認為這是長期可持續的成本水準。不過我相信，低成本業者在短期內在這些成本水準下會相對從容。

Joc, the following question comes from Mark Connelly at Stephens. Why is it to any producer's advantage to place any significant tonnage at or near the Chinese market?

Joc，下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Mark Connelly。為什麼對任何生產商而言，把任何顯著的噸數投放到中國市場附近或接近中國市場，會是有利的？

Thank you, Mark. The question about why we would put product into bonded warehouses when there isn't a contract, it's a delicate balance between continuing to keep production going, product flowing. If there's an anticipation of a contract in the near term, I think it certainly makes some sense to advance some product to those markets. However, I would agree that, in this case, that was used more than probably was helpful, and it did delay the ultimate settling of the contract.

謝謝你，Mark。關於為什麼在沒有合約的情況下，我們會把產品放進保稅倉庫的問題，這是在維持生產持續運轉、產品持續流動之間的一種微妙平衡。如果預期短期內會簽訂合約，我認為提前把部分產品推進那些市場確實有一定道理。不過我也同意，在這個案例中，這種做法使用得可能比有幫助的程度更高，並且延後了合約最終的敲定。

The following question comes from Adam Samuelson at Goldman Sachs, asking more broadly about the potash market. Mosaic lowered its global potash shipment forecast by 2 million tonnes relative to its February forecast versus a downwardly revised 2019 level. Given that at least 1.5 million tonnes of fourth quarter 2019 production curtailments and 1.5 million tonnes of new capacity coming onstream in 2020, do you expect similar production curtailments in the second half of 2020 as we saw in the second half of 2019? And is Mosaic now planning for lower production and shipments than it was in February?

下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson，較廣泛地詢問鉀肥市場。Mosaic 將其全球鉀肥出貨量預測較 2 月的預測下調了 200 萬噸（相較於下修後的 2019 年水準）。鑑於 2019 年第四季至少有 150 萬噸的減產，以及 2020 年將有 150 萬噸的新產能投產，你是否預期 2020 年下半年會出現與 2019 年下半年類似的減產？另外，Mosaic 現在是否正規劃比 2 月時更低的產量與出貨量？

Thank you, Adam. Yes, there's no question the production will be down from what it was previously, and we've seen reduced operating rates carried through from last year into 2020, for example, Nutrien's Vanscoy facility is down. And you're aware, earlier this year, we decided that we would keep Colonsay down indefinitely. So that, coupled with a few, albeit small, production cuts due to COVID-19 issues around the world, we don't see a market being particularly burdened by supply. This is also supported by our view that there will only be about 1 million tonnes of incremental production coming on this year between SQM, K+S and EuroChem and with the commissioning of the Petrikovsky mine in Belarus.

謝謝你，Adam。是的，毫無疑問，產量會低於先前的水準；我們也看到較低的開工率從去年延續到 2020 年，例如 Nutrien 的 Vanscoy 廠目前是降載的。而且你也知道，今年稍早我們決定 Colonsay 將無限期停產。再加上全球因 COVID-19 相關問題而出現的一些（雖然幅度不大）減產，我們不認為市場會特別受到供給壓力所困擾。這也符合我們的看法：今年新增產量大約只有 100 萬噸，主要來自 SQM、K+S 與 EuroChem，以及白俄羅斯 Petrikovsky 礦的投產。

As for Mosaic's production, we continue to maintain that we will match our production with our customers' requirements. So we will continue to monitor global demand, and we will make adjustments as is required.

至於 Mosaic 的產量，我們仍然維持一貫立場：我們會讓產量與客戶需求相匹配。因此我們將持續監測全球需求，並在需要時進行調整。

Ben Isaacson from Scotia asks if you're seeing any abnormal demand patterns related to weather, farmer economics or COVID-19 in either potash or phosphate.

Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson 問到，你們是否在鉀肥或磷肥方面，看到任何與天氣、農民經濟狀況或 COVID-19 相關的異常需求型態？

Thank you, Ben. Let me start by saying weather is always a factor in our business. And right now, weather is actually probably helping us because we have a very normal year in the North American market and it looks like we're going to have a pretty strong spring season. So overall, weather is always plus and minus. But this year, I think it's probably helping us overall.

謝謝你，Ben。我先說明，天氣一直都是我們業務中的一個因素。而目前天氣其實可能正在幫助我們，因為北美市場今年非常正常，看起來春季旺季會相當強勁。總體而言，天氣永遠有利有弊，但今年我認為整體上可能是在幫助我們。

In terms of farmer economics, certainly -- or COVID-19, certainly, at this stage, we have not seen any impacts from either of those. Although as we look to the long term, they certainly will become a factor if farmer economics become weaker. One area where all this turmoil is helping us is in places like Brazil and India, where solid farmer economics and positive farmer sentiment is actually driving purchase activity.

就農民經濟狀況而言，當然——或就 COVID-19 而言，當然——在現階段，我們尚未看到兩者帶來任何影響。不過從長期來看，如果農民經濟狀況轉弱，它們確實會成為影響因素。有一個領域，這些動盪反而在幫助我們：像巴西與印度這些地方，穩健的農民經濟狀況與正向的農民情緒，實際上正在推動採購活動。

Joc, the next question comes from Steve Byrne, Bank of America. In your opinion, what is the primary reason phosphate and potash prices declined throughout 2019? And what will be the mechanism for reversal?

Joc，下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。依你看，2019 年磷肥與鉀肥價格一路下跌的主要原因是什麼？反轉的機制會是什麼？

Thank you, Steve. If we look back on 2019, I think the biggest thing there was actually the demand shock of the North American market. North America had a bad fall in 2018, a bad spring in 2019 and really a late fall in 2019. So more than anything, this was not a supply-driven occurrence. It was more of a demand-driven occurrence and mostly through the U.S. bad spring. Other than that, it should be a relatively normal year this year. And so what we believe the mechanism for reversal will be is a good North American spring, which we're seeing today.

謝謝你，Steve。回顧 2019 年，我認為最大的因素其實是北美市場的需求衝擊。北美在 2018 年秋季表現不佳、2019 年春季表現不佳，而且 2019 年秋季也來得很晚。因此這並非供給驅動的事件，更多是需求驅動的事件，主要源自美國春季不佳。除此之外，今年應該會是相對正常的一年。因此我們認為反轉的機制會是北美有一個良好的春季，而我們今天正看到這一點。

We have another question from Steve, Joc. The upper end of your phosphate volume forecast range for 2020 is not even up to the 2018 level, and the upper end of the potash forecast range is equal to the 2018 level. What happened to the thesis that missed applications in 2019 would be applied in 2020?

Joc，我們還有 Steve 的另一個問題。你們 2020 年磷肥銷量預測區間的上緣甚至還不到 2018 年水準，而鉀肥預測區間的上緣則等同於 2018 年水準。那麼，2019 年未施用的肥料會在 2020 年補施的論點發生了什麼事？

Thank you, Steve. In phosphates, the primary driver for shipments not reaching the '18 level is China. And in that market, the demand has declined, and as such, so has production. Now as we get into 2020, we see that demand level in interior China has stabilized. As such, we can see further growth as we go forward.

謝謝你，Steve。在磷肥方面，出貨量未能回到 2018 年水準的主要驅動因素是中國。在那個市場，需求已經下滑，因此產量也隨之下降。進入 2020 年後，我們看到中國內陸的需求水準已經趨於穩定。因此，隨著未來推進，我們可以看到進一步的成長。

In potash, we've certainly seen demand rebound in places like North America, India and continued growth in Brazil. The one area where we haven't seen great demand is in Southeast Asia and particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, where palm prices have given us some concern about ongoing demand this year.

在鉀肥方面，我們確實看到北美、印度等地需求回升，巴西也持續成長。我們沒有看到強勁需求的一個區域是在東南亞，特別是印尼、馬來西亞；棕櫚油價格讓我們對今年持續需求有些擔憂。

Jeff Zekauskas at JPMorgan, PJ Juvekar at Citi and Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs all ask questions on the Chinese phosphate exports. First, what is your outlook for Chinese exports in 2020? Can Chinese exports catch up after COVID-19? And what is a breakeven price for Chinese export producers?

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas、花旗的 PJ Juvekar，以及高盛的 Adam Samuelson 都提出了關於中國磷肥出口的問題。首先，你對 2020 年中國出口的展望是什麼？中國出口能否在 COVID-19 之後追趕回來？以及中國出口生產商的損益兩平價格是多少？

Thank you, folks. As you're well aware, production from Hubei Province was low in the first quarter. And then once production restarted, it was really refocused on the domestic market. As we follow through the year, we expect that production shortfall, and as such, some of the 500,000 tonnes of deficiency in terms of their exports will be made up, and we expect to end the year with somewhere around 9.5 million tonnes of Chinese exports.

謝謝各位。如各位所知，湖北省第一季的產量偏低。之後一旦復產，重心其實轉向了國內市場。隨著今年進展，我們預期這個產量缺口會逐步補回，因此出口端約 50 萬噸的缺口也會有部分被彌補；我們預期年底中國出口量大約會落在 950 萬噸左右。

Joc, the following question was raised by Ben Isaacson at Scotia and Rikin Patel at Berenberg. What are you seeing in demand growth for China this year? And what is the impact of COVID-19?

Joc，下一個問題由 Scotia 的 Ben Isaacson 與 Berenberg 的 Rikin Patel 提出。你們今年看到中國需求成長的情況如何？COVID-19 的影響是什麼？

Thank you, guys. Preliminary indications on the spring season show that phosphate demand has stabilized, with DAP demand likely ending up slightly higher year-over-year, while MAP demand is probably down modestly.

謝謝各位。春季旺季的初步跡象顯示，磷肥需求已趨於穩定；DAP 需求可能會較去年同期略高，而 MAP 需求可能會小幅下降。

In terms of COVID-19, it just doesn't appear that it's had too much of an impact on domestic phosphate consumption, and I think the reasoning is simple. First of all, the Chinese government is focused very much on food production. As a good example, support price for corn is up 9% to $7.50 a bushel. So that really is a good incentive for the Chinese farmer to plant.

就 COVID-19 而言，看起來它對國內磷肥消費的影響並不大，我認為原因很簡單。首先，中國政府非常重視糧食生產。舉個明顯的例子，玉米的支持價格上調 9%，至每英斗 7.50 美元。因此這確實為中國農民提供了很好的種植誘因。

Joc, both PJ Juvekar at Citi and Chris Parkinson from Crédit Suisse asked about the supply in phosphate. Longer term, what is your expectation of the cadence of new supply in 2020 through 2022? And shorter term, with global competitors' curtailments behind them, do you expect more phosphate imports into the U.S. post planting this year?

Joc，Citi 的 PJ Juvekar 與瑞士信貸（Crédit Suisse）的 Chris Parkinson 都問到磷酸鹽的供給。從較長期來看，您對 2020 到 2022 年新增供給的節奏有何預期？而從較短期來看，隨著全球競爭對手的減產已告一段落，您是否預期今年播種季之後，美國將有更多磷酸鹽進口？

Thank you, folks. I'm going to hand this one straight over to Rick to give you the detail on our expectations of longer-term S&D.

謝謝各位。我會把這題直接交給 Rick，請他提供我們對長期供需（S&D）預期的細節。

Yes. Thanks, Joc. This week, we'll be providing in our investor presentations, an update of the S&D outlook. But frankly, once we get through 2020 and the expected OCP ramp-up and debottlenecking activities, along with the ramp-up of several smaller facilities in Egypt and Turkey, we expect the market to be much more balanced as we go into 2021 with most of the production additions behind us.

好的。謝謝你，Joc。本週我們會在投資人簡報中提供供需展望的更新。不過坦白說，一旦我們度過 2020 年，以及預期的 OCP 產能爬坡與去瓶頸活動，再加上埃及與土耳其數個較小設施的產能爬坡，我們預期在 2021 年到來時，隨著大部分新增產能已經落地，市場將會更趨於平衡。

And as for the near term, there was 2 or 3 -- there are 2 or 3 vessels that are arriving, frankly, too late for the rapidly advancing spring season, and those will not make it into the north to be worked into the supply. Those are going to provide near-term price pressure, but we believe it to be transitory.

至於短期方面，確實有 2 到 3 艘船將抵達，但坦白說，對於快速推進的春季農忙而言已經太晚，這些貨不會及時運到北方並納入供應。它們會在短期內對價格造成壓力，但我們認為這是暫時性的。

Joc, we have 2 related questions from Vincent Andrews at Morgan Stanley and Adam Samuelson at Goldman Sachs. Why is potash demand benefiting from the strong Brazilian farmer economics more than phosphate? And this pertains to the global shipment forecast we included in our deck. And second, can you bridge the difference between strong farm-level economics and the tempered shipment outlook?

Joc，我們有兩個相關問題，分別來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews 與高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson。第一，為什麼鉀肥需求從巴西農民強勁的經濟狀況中受益程度高於磷酸鹽？這也關係到我們在簡報中納入的全球出貨量預測。第二，能否說明強勁的農場端經濟狀況與較為溫和的出貨展望之間的差異？

Thanks, guys. We believe that strong Brazilian farmer economics has helped both phosphate and potash this year. If there's any difference in the growth between the 2, it is simply our estimate of channel inventory as we enter the year. So in some cases, phosphate may have had a higher channel inventory. And as such, that has to be worked down before we get expected higher shipments. Other than that, we really believe that Brazil will be a highlight in the whole global demand for both phosphate and potash. And as you've seen from our results, certainly from a volume perspective, the first quarter highlights that.

謝謝各位。我們認為巴西農民強勁的經濟狀況今年同時帶動了磷酸鹽與鉀肥。若兩者成長有任何差異，純粹是我們對年初通路庫存的估計不同。因此在某些情況下，磷酸鹽的通路庫存可能較高；因此在我們看到預期更高的出貨之前，必須先把庫存去化。除此之外，我們確實相信巴西將會是全球磷酸鹽與鉀肥需求中的亮點。而從我們的業績來看，尤其就銷量而言，第一季已經凸顯了這一點。

Joc, the following question was raised by Rikin Patel at Berenberg. As the Brazilian planting season draws closer in the second half of the year, are there any mitigating factors you can put in place to lessen the impact of logistical issues exacerbated by COVID-19? And if so, what would those be?

Joc，下一題由 Berenberg 的 Rikin Patel 提出。隨著下半年巴西播種季逐漸接近，針對 COVID-19 加劇的物流問題，貴公司是否能採取任何緩解措施以降低影響？若可以，會是哪些措施？

Thank you, Rikin. We've already taken a number of actions with respect to COVID-19. And as such, we've seen very little impact to our business, and I -- we believe a big piece of that is these precautions we've taken. We've taken those in Brazil and in North America in all our production facilities, but we're protecting all our supply chain partners as best we can. So we're practicing all the CDC guidelines. We're changing shift schedules. We're making sure that we don't bring our carriers into our plant from a perspective of truck drivers, et cetera. So we're trying to make sure that we do everything we can to protect ourselves.

謝謝你，Rikin。我們已經就 COVID-19 採取了多項行動。因此，我們看到對業務的影響非常有限，而我——我們相信其中很大一部分原因在於我們採取的這些預防措施。我們在巴西與北美所有生產設施都採取了這些措施，同時也盡可能保護我們所有的供應鏈合作夥伴。所以我們遵循所有 CDC 指引。我們調整輪班排程。我們也確保從卡車司機等角度來看，不讓承運商進入我們的工廠。因此我們正努力確保盡一切所能保護自己。

In addition, we have an advantage in that we are generally using private ports in Brazil, so we think we can do a lot and have already done a lot to allow for us to continue uninterrupted through this COVID issue. And let me add, we're taking some extraordinary steps like even having our kitchens prepare meals for the drivers as they arrive, so they don't contact people on their trip into our plants.

此外，我們還有一項優勢：我們在巴西通常使用私人港口，因此我們認為我們可以做很多事，而且也已經做了很多，讓我們能在這次 COVID 事件期間持續不中斷運作。再補充一點，我們甚至採取了一些非常措施，例如讓我們的廚房在司機抵達時準備餐點，讓他們在前往我們工廠的途中不必接觸他人。

The following question comes from Jonas Oxgaard at Bernstein. We keep hearing reports of specialty crops being discarded or plowed under due to logistical issues or labor shortages from COVID-19. Are you seeing any negative impact on fertilizer demand for specialty crops?

下一題來自 Bernstein 的 Jonas Oxgaard。我們不斷聽到報導指出，由於 COVID-19 造成的物流問題或勞力短缺，一些經濟作物被丟棄或翻耕掩埋。你們是否看到經濟作物用肥需求有任何負面影響？

Thanks, Jonas. From our perspective, we really haven't felt any impacts to date. Now there is a chance that this could be a function of, there's a great strength of demand from the much larger row crop sectors, and that could be masking any negative impacts from the specialty crop sector.

謝謝你，Jonas。就我們的角度而言，目前為止我們確實還沒有感受到任何影響。不過確實有可能，這是因為來自規模更大的大田作物（row crop）部門的需求非常強勁，從而掩蓋了經濟作物部門可能出現的任何負面影響。

Joc, the last question submitted last night comes from both Adam Samuelson at Goldman Sachs and Mark Connelly at Stephens, and it's with respect to corn acreage imbalance. Given that 51% of the corn acreage has already been planted ahead of the 5-year average, what is your acreage forecast? And what gives you confidence in that figure if it's different than the USDA? Also, you mentioned corn demand in China as they rebuild their herds, but we're hearing African swine fever might not be under control. Can you tell us what you're hearing?

Joc，昨晚提交的最後一題同時來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson 與 Stephens 的 Mark Connelly，內容與玉米種植面積失衡有關。鑑於玉米種植面積已有 51% 完成播種，且高於 5 年平均，你們的種植面積預測是多少？如果與 USDA 不同，你們對該數字的信心來源是什麼？另外，你提到中國在重建畜群時的玉米需求，但我們聽說非洲豬瘟可能尚未受控。能否談談你們聽到的情況？

Thank you, folks. I'll take these one at a time. First of all, we see corn acreage around 94 million acres. And while the USDA was noting 97 million acres, this was based on survey data before a lot of the COVID-19 impacts were felt. We have heard from our customer base that there was some switching, and there will be some switching from corn over to beans. But a lot of our largest customers have not seen too many corn acres come in below their initial USDA expectations. So we think our estimates are pretty realistic.

謝謝各位。我會逐一回答。首先，我們看到玉米種植面積約為 9,400 萬英畝。雖然 USDA 提到 9,700 萬英畝，但那是基於在許多 COVID-19 影響被感受到之前所做的調查數據。我們從客戶群聽到，有一些改種情況，而且會有一些從玉米轉向大豆。但我們許多最大的客戶並沒有看到玉米種植面積比他們最初的 USDA 預期低太多。因此我們認為我們的估計相當務實。

In terms of African swine fever, there have been reports of some small-scale African swine fever outbreaks over the last weeks. But thus far, it appears to be just that, small and isolated. And bear in mind that many were expecting the demise of the Chinese soybean imports last year during the height of the outbreak. And China actually imported slightly more soybeans last year than they did in '18. So likely, they sought to maximize output across all their livestock classes.

就非洲豬瘟而言，過去幾週確實有一些小規模非洲豬瘟爆發的報導。但到目前為止，看起來也僅止於此——規模小且零星。並且請記得，去年在疫情高峰期間，很多人原本預期中國大豆進口會大幅下滑。但中國去年實際進口的大豆量比 2018 年還略多一些。因此很可能他們試圖在所有畜牧類別中最大化產出。

With that, we will wrap up this Q&A session. I hope you take away a few key points. Our business is operating well despite COVID-19. We're delivering excellent operating performance, and we remain optimistic for the remainder of 2020. Thanks for listening, be safe and stay healthy.

那麼，我們將結束本次問答環節。希望各位帶走幾個重點。儘管有 COVID-19，我們的業務運作良好。我們交出了優異的營運表現，並且對 2020 年剩餘時間仍保持樂觀。感謝收聽，請注意安全並保持健康。