美盛公司 (MOS) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加馬賽克公司（The Mosaic Company）2021 全年財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

Your host for today's call is Paul Massoud, Vice President, Investor Relations for The Mosaic Company. Mr. Massoud, you may begin.

今天會議的主持人是馬賽克公司投資人關係副總裁 Paul Massoud。Massoud 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O'Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat as well as open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Senior Vice President of Global Strategic Marketing, will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎各位參加我們 2021 年第四季與全年財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Joc O'Rourke 提供，接著是爐邊談話以及開放式問答。資深副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及全球策略行銷資深副總裁 Jenny Wang，也將在場回答各位的提問。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. Statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release furnished yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

在本次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性陳述。相關陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。這些陳述係基於管理階層截至今日的信念與預期，並可能受到重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述內容出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日提供的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告中。我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話交給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings discussion. I hope you've had a chance to review our posted slides as well as our news release and performance data, which were made available on our website yesterday. I will provide some additional context before we respond to questions we received last night, and then we'll conclude with a live Q&A session.

早安。感謝各位參加我們 2021 年第四季與全年財報討論。我希望各位已經有機會檢視我們已上傳的簡報，以及昨日在我們網站上提供的新聞稿與績效資料。在回應我們昨晚收到的問題之前，我會先補充一些背景說明，之後我們將以現場問答作結。

Mosaic delivered excellent financial performance in 2021 with total EBITDA for the year of $3.6 billion, our highest total since Mosaic listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Adjusted earnings per share was $5.04, the highest since 2011. Our results were a reflection of strong performance across all of our segments.

馬賽克在 2021 年交出優異的財務表現，全年 EBITDA 總額達 36 億美元，為馬賽克在紐約證券交易所上市以來的最高總額。調整後每股盈餘為 5.04 美元，為 2011 年以來最高。我們的成果反映了各事業部門的強勁表現。

Phosphate segment adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.7 billion, over 200% higher than the segment's total in 2020, reflecting strong pricing and growth in MicroEssentials, which more than offset the production impacts of Hurricane Ida. Potash segment adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.3 billion, up 78% from the prior year, as pricing, increased output from K3 and the restart of Colonsay largely mitigated the closure at K1 and K2.

磷酸鹽事業部調整後 EBITDA 合計 17 億美元，較 2020 年該事業部總額高出逾 200%，反映強勁的價格表現以及 MicroEssentials 的成長，且足以抵銷颶風 Ida 對產量的影響。鉀肥事業部調整後 EBITDA 合計 13 億美元，較前一年增加 78%；在價格上揚、K3 產量提升以及 Colonsay 重啟的帶動下，大致緩解了 K1 與 K2 關閉的影響。

In Brazil, Mosaic Fertilizantes generated adjusted EBITDA of $821 million, up 74% from the prior year as the team capitalized on strong demand, a trend that we expected and drove our decision to acquire Fertilizantes 4 years ago. In 2021 Mosaic Fertilizantes was able to achieve its $200 million transformational EBITDA improvement target, over a year ahead of schedule.

在巴西，Mosaic Fertilizantes 產生調整後 EBITDA 8.21 億美元，較前一年成長 74%；團隊把握強勁需求——這正是我們預期的趨勢，也促成我們在 4 年前決定收購 Fertilizantes。2021 年，Mosaic Fertilizantes 提前一年以上達成 2 億美元的轉型 EBITDA 改善目標。

These results highlight the decisions we've made over the last decade that have strengthened the business. Most significant has been the construction of K3, which at full capacity will be one of the largest, most efficient and automated potash mines in the world. Assuming a net investment consistent with what we discussed at our 2019 Analyst Day, at today's prices K3's payback period can be measured in months rather than years.

這些成果凸顯了我們過去十年所做的決策如何強化公司。其中最重要的是 K3 的建設；在滿載產能下，K3 將成為全球最大、效率最高且自動化程度最高的鉀肥礦之一。若以我們在 2019 年分析師日所討論的淨投資水準為前提，在目前價格下，K3 的投資回收期可用「數月」而非「數年」來衡量。

Also in Potash, we successfully restarted Colonsay and reached our targeted annual run rate of 1 million tonnes during the fourth quarter. Colonsay's fourth quarter cash cost averaged $85 per tonne, well below our pre-idle cost of $100 a tonne despite higher price-driven taxes and royalties.

同樣在鉀肥方面，我們成功重啟 Colonsay，並在第四季達到我們目標的年化運轉率 100 萬噸。Colonsay 第四季現金成本平均為每噸 85 美元，儘管受價格推升的稅負與權利金增加影響，仍明顯低於停產前每噸 100 美元的成本。

In Brazil, our acquisition of Mosaic Fertilizantes in 2018 followed by the team's transformational work to improve margins has driven significant shareholder value. At the time of the transaction, pro forma EBITDA was less than $70 million. Our 2021 results show that we've been able to optimize that business through integration and transformational share gains and co-product sales.

在巴西，我們於 2018 年收購 Mosaic Fertilizantes，並由團隊推動改善利潤率的轉型工作，已創造顯著的股東價值。交易當時，備考（pro forma）EBITDA 低於 7,000 萬美元。我們 2021 年的結果顯示，透過整合、轉型帶來的市占提升以及共產品銷售，我們已能優化該業務。

In our Phosphate business, performance products, primarily higher-margin MicroEssentials, now account for more than 40% of the segment's finished product sales volumes. All of these decisions, combined with strong execution, put us in a position to benefit from 2021's favorable market backdrop and improve Mosaic's financial position. In 2021, Mosaic retired $450 million of long-term debt, raised the annual dividend by 50% and repurchased nearly $0.5 billion in shares.

在磷酸鹽業務方面，績效產品（performance products），主要是高毛利的 MicroEssentials，目前占該事業部成品銷售量逾 40%。所有這些決策，加上強而有力的執行，使我們得以受惠於 2021 年有利的市場環境，並改善馬賽克的財務狀況。2021 年，馬賽克償還 4.5 億美元長期負債，將年度股利提高 50%，並回購近 5 億美元的股票。

Looking forward, we continue to see agricultural market strength extending through 2022. Global demand for grain and oilseeds remains high, while stock-to-use ratios are at the lowest point in more than a decade. Food security concerns and rising biofuel consumption are driving demand for corn and soybean as well as rice, wheat, coffee, palm oil and other agricultural commodities. These dynamics are sustaining agricultural commodity prices.

展望未來，我們持續看到農業市場的強勢延續至 2022 年。全球穀物與油籽需求仍然強勁，而庫存使用比（stock-to-use ratios）處於逾十年來最低水準。糧食安全疑慮與生質燃料消費上升，正推動玉米與黃豆需求，以及稻米、小麥、咖啡、棕櫚油與其他農產品的需求。這些動態支撐了農產品價格。

It's the strength in crop markets combined with global industry supply constraints that have pushed fertilizer prices higher. Global supply disruptions from 2021 are expected to continue impacting the global market in 2022. In potash, sanctions against Belarus are beginning to have a profound impact on supply. Global buyers are beginning to acknowledge this, including India and China, which both signed contracts with Canpotex at $590 per tonne to ensure they have adequate supply for 2022.

作物市場的強勁，加上全球產業供給受限，推升了肥料價格。2021 年的全球供應中斷預期將在 2022 年持續影響全球市場。在鉀肥方面，對白俄羅斯的制裁正開始對供給造成深遠影響。全球買家也開始正視此一情勢，包括印度與中國，兩者皆以每噸 590 美元與 Canpotex 簽訂合約，以確保 2022 年有充足供應。

In phosphates, the secular shift of China's supply away from exports towards domestic agriculture and industrial consumption is expected to outlast the short-term export ban currently in place. Over time, we believe domestic demand will drive China's phosphate exports lower as secular demand trends continue to grow, especially on the industrial side from chemicals and electric vehicles' lithium iron phosphate batteries.

在磷酸鹽方面，中國供給結構性地由出口轉向國內農業與工業消費的趨勢，預期將持續時間長於目前的短期出口禁令。隨著長期需求趨勢持續成長，尤其是工業端來自化學品與電動車磷酸鐵鋰電池的需求，我們相信國內需求將在時間推移下推動中國磷酸鹽出口下降。

Globally, strong demand over the last 18 months resulted in many producers delaying maintenance downtime to meet customer needs, which will have to be addressed at some point.

在全球範圍內，過去 18 個月的強勁需求使許多生產商為了滿足客戶需求而延後歲修停機，但這終究必須在某個時間點處理。

On the demand side, farmer economics in most global growing regions remains constructive. Inflation and input costs are impacting profitability, but recent increases in crop prices are improving farmer economics for 2022, even if that estimated profitability remains below the 2021 record levels.

在需求端，多數全球主要種植區的農民經濟狀況仍具建設性。通膨與投入成本正在影響獲利能力，但近期作物價格上漲正在改善 2022 年的農民經濟狀況，即使估計的獲利水準仍低於 2021 年的歷史高點。

As we head into North American spring planting season, we are seeing normal buyer behavior as demand continues to reflect strong underlying crop prices. In Brazil, fertilizer shipments in 2022 appear set to equal last year's record-setting total. Grower economics are improving, thanks to rising crop prices, credit availability and a favorable exchange rate.

隨著北美進入春季播種季，我們看到買方行為正常，需求仍反映作物價格的強勁基本面。在巴西，2022 年肥料出貨量看來可望與去年創紀錄的總量持平。受惠於作物價格上漲、信貸可得性以及有利的匯率，種植戶的經濟狀況正在改善。

In India, while farmer demand remains very strong, availability is still lagging. This month, the Indian government released its initial budget for nutrient subsidies, highlighting the Indian government's willingness to respond to market condition with revisions. Given depleted Indian inventories, we see India as a source of pent-up demand, which should see phosphate and potash consumption grow in 2022.

在印度，儘管農民需求仍非常強勁，但供應可得性仍然落後。本月，印度政府公布其養分補貼的初步預算，凸顯印度政府願意因應市場狀況進行修訂。鑑於印度庫存已被消耗，我們認為印度將成為被壓抑需求的來源，並可望在 2022 年帶動磷酸鹽與鉀肥消費成長。

As we look at our business in the context of today's global markets, we remain very optimistic. In Potash, K3's ramp-up is expected to be completed by the end of the first quarter, meaning it will reach full capacity, under budget and 2 years ahead of schedule. When combined with Belle Plaine and a full year of production from Colonsay, we expect higher production in 2022 with production costs trending lower as the year progresses.

在當前全球市場背景下檢視我們的業務，我們仍然非常樂觀。在鉀肥方面，K3 的爬坡增產預期將於第一季末完成，意味著它將在預算之內、且較原計畫提前 2 年達到滿載產能。結合 Belle Plaine 以及 Colonsay 全年生產，我們預期 2022 年產量將更高，且隨著年度推進，生產成本趨勢將走低。

In the first quarter, we expect sales volume of 1.8 million to 2 million tonnes, with average realized FOB prices more than $125 per tonne higher than prices realized in the fourth quarter. In Phosphates, we also expect a recovery in volume in 2022 following last year's production curtailments related to sulfur shortage in the second quarter and Hurricane Ida in the third and fourth quarters. We expect to see input cost inflation in 2022, especially related to our open-market purchases of sulfur and ammonia. But in ammonia, we continue to benefit from 2/3 of our needs being met by internal production and our supply agreement with CF Industries.

在第一季，我們預期銷售量為 180 萬至 200 萬噸，平均實現的 FOB 價格將較第四季實現價格每噸高出逾 125 美元。在磷酸鹽方面，我們也預期 2022 年的銷量將在去年減產後回升；去年第二季因硫磺短缺、第三與第四季因颶風 Ida 而限產。2022 年我們預期投入成本將出現通膨，尤其與我們在公開市場採購硫磺與氨相關。不過在氨方面，我們仍受惠於 2/3 的需求由內部生產以及與 CF Industries 的供應協議所滿足。

In the first quarter, we expect phosphate sales volumes up 1.6 million to 1.8 million tonnes. Our expected sales volumes reflect supply chain constraints as well as low inventories at the start of the year because of Hurricane Ida. Average realized FOB prices are expected to be more than $60 per tonne higher than prices realized in the fourth quarter, somewhat offset by higher input costs.

在第一季，我們預期磷酸鹽銷售量將增加160萬至180萬公噸。我們的預期銷售量反映了供應鏈限制，以及因颶風艾達導致年初庫存偏低。平均實現的FOB價格預計將比第四季實現的價格每公噸高出60美元以上，但部分將被較高的投入成本所抵銷。

For Mosaic Fertilizantes, we expect the business to continue reflecting the favorable market backdrop and our transformation efforts in 2022. Sustained grower demand and improved market positioning should continue to drive results. We are seeing inflation affect our cost structure but believe our transformation initiatives should offset much of the impact.

就Mosaic Fertilizantes而言，我們預期該業務在2022年將持續反映有利的市場背景以及我們的轉型努力。持續的種植戶需求與改善的市場定位應可繼續推動業績。我們看到通膨正在影響我們的成本結構，但相信我們的轉型措施應能抵銷大部分影響。

Given the direction of our business, we anticipate generating significant earnings and free cash flow in 2022. With that in mind, it is imperative that we allocate capital wisely across our 3 strategic focus areas of capital return to shareholders, balance sheet strength, and investing in the business.

鑑於我們業務的走向，我們預期在2022年將產生可觀的獲利與自由現金流。基於此，我們必須在三大策略重點領域明智地配置資本：回饋股東、強化資產負債表，以及投資於業務。

Returning capital to shareholders will be a key focus in 2022. Over the coming year, we anticipate returning most of our free cash flow, up to 75%, to shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and dividends. At today's price, we believe our shares represent compelling value given the dynamics we're seeing.

在2022年，回饋股東將是關鍵重點。在未來一年，我們預期將透過股票回購與股利的組合，把我們大部分的自由現金流（最高達75%）回饋給股東。以今日股價來看，考量我們所見的市場動態，我們認為本公司股票具備相當吸引力的價值。

To underscore this point, we will be initiating a $400 million accelerated share repurchase program in the coming days. After the ASR, we will have repurchased approximately $830 million against our $1 billion authorization established last August. We plan to exhaust the remaining portion of that authorization through open-market purchases.

為了強調這一點，我們將在未來幾天啟動4億美元的加速股票回購（ASR）計畫。完成ASR後，針對去年8月核准的10億美元回購額度，我們累計回購金額將約達8.3億美元。我們計畫透過公開市場買進用盡剩餘的核准額度。

As a result, Mosaic's Board has approved a new $1 billion repurchase authorization, which goes into effect after the current program is completed. The ASR and our new authorization together represent about 8% of our market capitalization. Combining both authorizations represents approximately 12% of our current market cap.

因此，Mosaic董事會已核准新的10億美元回購授權，將在現行計畫完成後生效。ASR與新的授權合計約相當於我們市值的8%。合併兩項授權合計約相當於我們目前市值的12%。

In addition to share repurchases, Mosaic's Board has also approved raising the regular annual dividend from $0.45 to $0.60 per share beginning in the second quarter. This is the third regular dividend hike in the last 12 months and reflects our confidence in the long-term strength of the business.

除股票回購外，Mosaic董事會也核准自第二季起將例行年度股利由每股0.45美元提高至每股0.60美元。這是過去12個月內第三次調升例行股利，反映我們對公司長期實力的信心。

In the area of balance sheet strength, we remain committed to reducing long-term debt by $1 billion. Last year, we retired $450 million, which leaves $550 million left towards our ultimate goal. This coincides with $550 million of long-term debt that matures later this year.

在強化資產負債表方面，我們仍致力於將長期負債降低10億美元。去年我們已償還4.5億美元，距離最終目標尚餘5.5億美元。這也與今年稍晚到期的5.5億美元長期負債相吻合。

It is also important to note that our working capital needs tend to grow as our end markets strengthen. Because of this, we have expanded our working capital lending facilities by $375 million to help us more efficiently manage our liquidity.

同樣重要的是，隨著終端市場走強，我們的營運資金需求往往會增加。因此，我們已將營運資金融資額度擴增3.75億美元，以協助我們更有效率地管理流動性。

Given our outlook for the year, we expect we'll also be able to continue investing wisely and efficiently in our business, even as we return the majority of our capital to shareholders. Over the last 5 years, the value created by key investments, like accelerated construction of K3, the acquisition of Mosaic Fertilizantes and the development and growth of MicroEssentials, speaks for itself.

依據我們對今年的展望，我們預期即使將大部分資本回饋給股東，仍能持續以明智且有效率的方式投資於業務。過去5年，關鍵投資所創造的價值——例如K3加速建設、收購Mosaic Fertilizantes，以及MicroEssentials的開發與成長——已不言而喻。

Looking forward, we will continue to seek out high-returning investments, but our focus is not on large-scale greenfield projects. Rather, we believe better return can be realized in areas like enlarging our footprint in Brazil, expansion of MicroEssentials and investment in soil health and biologics.

展望未來，我們將持續尋找高報酬投資，但重點不在大型綠地（greenfield）專案。相反地，我們相信在巴西擴大布局、擴展MicroEssentials，以及投資土壤健康與生物製劑等領域，可實現更佳報酬。

In the last area, we are seeing very promising results. As an example, through our partnership with BioConsortia, field trials of a first-generation nitrogen fixing formulation for corn have shown promising results that we believe are as good as anything available in the market today. And we believe further development can result in a best-in-class nitrogen solution for growers in the next 2 years. We will have exclusive rights to that product when it comes to market in the Americas, China and India, key growing regions that want to reduce their nitrogen cost. This is just one example of many partnerships as we continue to explore grower solutions across biologicals and soil health.

在最後一個領域，我們看到非常令人振奮的成果。舉例而言，透過與BioConsortia的合作，針對玉米的第一代固氮配方之田間試驗已顯示出良好結果，我們認為其表現不亞於目前市場上任何產品。我們也相信，進一步開發可在未來2年為種植戶帶來同級最佳（best-in-class）的氮素解決方案。當該產品在美洲、中國與印度上市時——這些希望降低氮肥成本的關鍵種植區——我們將擁有其獨家權利。這只是眾多合作夥伴關係中的一例；我們將持續在生物製劑與土壤健康領域探索種植戶解決方案。

And we continue to do this through small, efficient investments that establish exclusive rights partnerships like with BioConsortia or give us access to entire product portfolios, as is the case with our recent investment in Plant Response, a small ag technology company that develops and commercializes plant and soil health products.

我們也持續透過小額且高效率的投資來推進這些工作：要麼建立如同與BioConsortia那樣的獨家權利合作夥伴關係，要麼讓我們得以取得完整產品組合的使用權，例如我們近期投資Plant Response——一家小型農業科技公司，開發並商業化植物與土壤健康產品。

In total, we've invested approximately $50 million over the last 2 years to build the foundation for an exciting future portfolio of value-add products that our customers are asking for. We anticipate having more to share on these investments over time. These moves emphasize our commitment to disciplined capital allocation. We will remain flexible in our approach, continuing to evaluate compelling opportunities that strengthen our business over the long term, optimize our balance sheet and return significant capital to shareholders.

總計而言，過去2年我們已投資約5,000萬美元，為令人期待的未來增值產品組合奠定基礎，而這些正是客戶所要求的。我們預期未來將逐步分享更多關於這些投資的資訊。這些舉措強調我們對嚴謹資本配置的承諾。我們將保持策略彈性，持續評估能在長期強化業務、優化資產負債表並向股東回饋可觀資本的具吸引力機會。

Finally, a discussion of the future of our business would be incomplete without including an update on some of the initiatives we've taken to make sure we continue to operate sustainably. Over the last year, we've made significant progress towards our ESG performance targets originally set in 2020, so much so that we've set even higher targets. In the area of carbon emissions, Mosaic has set a target of being net zero at its Florida operations by 2030 and globally by 2040. For diversity and inclusion, we've set new goals for 2030 around the issues of race, gender and community support. Our global goals ensure that our actions are purposeful, sustainable and measurable as we seek to operate our business while also helping to build a more inclusive culture where all of our employees can thrive.

最後，若不更新我們為確保持續以永續方式營運所採取的一些措施，對公司未來的討論將不完整。過去一年，我們在2020年原先設定的ESG績效目標上取得顯著進展，甚至因此設定了更高的目標。在碳排放方面，Mosaic已設定目標：佛羅里達營運於2030年前達成淨零排放，並於2040年前在全球達成淨零。就多元與共融而言，我們針對種族、性別與社區支持等議題，設定了2030年的新目標。我們的全球目標確保我們的行動具目的性、可永續且可衡量，讓我們在經營業務的同時，也協助打造更具包容性的文化，使所有員工都能茁壯成長。

With that, let's move on to the Q&A portion of the call.

接下來，我們進入本次電話會議的問答（Q&A）環節。

Thanks, Joc. Before we open the lines for the live Q&A, we're going to address some of the most common questions we received last night after our materials were released. To speed things along we won't identify each individual analyst, because many submitted similar questions.

謝謝你，Joc。在我們開放線上即時問答之前，我們將先回應昨晚在我們發布資料後收到的一些最常見問題。為了加快進度，我們不會逐一指出每位分析師，因為許多人提交了類似的問題。

Our first question is on the issue of the potash market in Belarus. How should investors think about the impact of sanctions on the global market?

第一個問題是關於白俄羅斯鉀肥市場。投資人應如何看待制裁對全球市場的影響？

Thank you. First, the potash market was already tight before any sanctions came into place. Higher crop prices, higher demand for fertilizer globally has led to a tightness in this market that was driving higher prices before the Belarusian sanctions. The Belarusian sanctions have simply exacerbated and made the tightness more serious.

謝謝。首先，在任何制裁生效之前，鉀肥市場就已經偏緊。更高的作物價格、全球更高的肥料需求，使得該市場在白俄羅斯制裁之前就已因供需吃緊而推升價格。白俄羅斯制裁只是讓這種緊俏加劇，並使情況更為嚴重。

In terms of the length of the sanctions, we really don't know, and there's no obvious immediate resolution to that issue right now. Short of maybe a regime change, I can't see how that issue is going to be resolved.

至於制裁會持續多久，我們確實不知道，目前也看不到明顯且立即的解決方案。除非可能出現政權更迭，否則我看不出這個問題將如何獲得解決。

In terms of the shortfall, we believe it could be anywhere from a few million tonnes in the best-case scenario to as much as 8 million tonnes if the sanctions remain all through the year. Our base case we're working on right now is that there will be about a 4 million tonne deficit this year.

就供給缺口而言，我們認為在最佳情境下可能只有數百萬公噸；若制裁全年持續，缺口可能高達800萬公噸。我們目前採用的基本情境是假設今年將出現約400萬公噸的缺口。

Now the best evidence for this from our perspective is not what we see, but what our buyers are saying. Our buyers are signaling that this issue could be longer-lasting than some of our producers have suggested. India and China both signed 2022 contracts at $590 for longer durations than the previous 6-month contracts. And we are hearing similar sentiment from our other global customers. They cannot get the tonnage. And if they can, there is no method to pay for it with U.S. banks.

從我們的角度來看，最有力的證據不是我們看到的，而是買方所說的。我們的買方訊號顯示，這個問題可能比部分生產商所暗示的更為持久。印度與中國都以每噸590美元簽訂了2022年合約，且合約期限比先前的6個月合約更長。我們也從其他全球客戶聽到類似看法：他們拿不到足夠的數量；即便拿得到，也沒有辦法透過美國銀行付款。

So it's fair to assume that every producer is likely already evaluating every economic tonne that they can get out to the market, including us. But remember, in addition to maximizing and increasing tonnage, we cannot forget about the supply chain constraints. To substantially increase our logistics capability, producers will need more railcars or port capacity, and all of this takes time and capital to overcome.

因此，可以合理假設每一家生產商很可能都已在評估能夠投放到市場的每一個具經濟效益的公噸，包括我們在內。但請記住，除了最大化並增加出貨量之外，我們也不能忽視供應鏈限制。若要大幅提升物流能力，生產商需要更多鐵路車廂或港口吞吐能力，而克服這些問題需要時間與資本。

A follow-up question on this issue: how much can Mosaic raise volumes to help fill the gap? Specifically, what run rates are you targeting? And is there any potential upside in the near term?

關於這個議題的追問：Mosaic 能把出貨量提高多少來協助填補缺口？具體來說，你們鎖定的運轉率（run rate）目標是多少？而且短期內是否有任何上行空間？

Yes. Thank you. Before the sanctions, Mosaic's targeted run rate by the end of the first quarter was about 10.5 million tonnes. And let me just quickly give you the breakup of that. Esterhazy in its existing form, we believe, can run a consistent, sustainable 5.5 million tonnes; Belle Plaine, around 3 million tonnes. Colonsay, before the shutdown, was running somewhere around 1 million to 1.5 million tonnes, and we will find the right spot for that this year. That gives us an MLP tonnage of around 9.5 million to 10 million tonnes available today. And then K-Mag, at just a little over 700,000 tonnes, takes our total to about 10.5 million tonnes of sustainable production capability.

是的，謝謝。在制裁之前，Mosaic 目標是在第一季末把運轉率提高到約 1,050 萬公噸。我快速拆解一下：我們認為 Esterhazy 以目前的型態，可以穩定、可持續地運轉在 550 萬公噸；Belle Plaine 約 300 萬公噸。Colonsay 在停產前的運轉大約在 100 萬到 150 萬公噸之間，我們今年會找到合適的水位。這使得我們目前可用的 MLP 產量約為 950 萬到 1,000 萬公噸。再加上 K-Mag 略高於 70 萬公噸，讓我們的總量達到約 1,050 萬公噸的可持續生產能力。

So as we look forward, what can we do to push our capabilities? We know we have some latent capacity at Colonsay, and we're looking right now on how we can do a little extra development to put some mining panels into place that were shut down a few years ago.

因此，展望未來，我們能做什麼來推升我們的能力？我們知道 Colonsay 還有一些潛在產能，我們目前正在評估如何做一些額外的開發，把幾年前關閉的一些採礦面板（mining panels）重新佈建到位。

In terms of K3, the run rate of 5.5 million tonnes, we think we could run a little more than that, and that will play out as we start getting more and more mining areas running and we get the 11th miner in position. The other issue at Esterhazy, we think, we think there's some pretty good debottlenecking projects that we're already studying, and we believe some of those will lead to a little better tonnage coming out of Esterhazy. In terms of Belle Plaine, we believe it's running pretty much at its maximum right now.

就 K3 而言，550 萬公噸的運轉率，我們認為可以再高一些；隨著我們讓越來越多的採礦區投入運轉，並把第 11 台採礦機（miner）就位，這會逐步體現出來。Esterhazy 的另一個議題是，我們認為有一些相當不錯的去瓶頸（debottlenecking）專案正在研究中，我們相信其中一些會讓 Esterhazy 的出礦量略有提升。至於 Belle Plaine，我們認為目前基本上已經在接近最大產能運轉。

So the easy tonnages will come from debottlenecking Colonsay, getting more miners into higher-production panels, and then pushing K3 and doing the small debottlenecking projects that come at the end of a long capital project.

因此，較容易取得的增量噸數將來自：為 Colonsay 去瓶頸、把更多採礦機配置到高產出的面板、以及推升 K3，並在大型資本專案尾聲推進一些小型去瓶頸專案。

Joc, the next issue is on the broader phosphate market, in China in particular. How much will China export this year? And could that export ban be lifted early?

Joc，下一個問題是關於更廣泛的磷酸鹽市場，特別是中國。今年中國會出口多少？而且出口禁令是否可能提前解除？

Thank you. We think China exports could be down as much as 2.5 million tonnes this year to about 9 million tonnes. We do expect that the ban could be lifted as early as the ending of the planting season. And we have to expect that at today's prices, it wouldn't be surprising to see China's producers try to benefit from that high-price environment.

謝謝。我們認為今年中國出口量可能會減少多達 250 萬公噸，降至約 900 萬公噸。我們確實預期禁令可能最早在播種季結束時解除。而且我們必須預期，在目前的價格水準下，看到中國生產商試圖受益於高價環境並不令人意外。

But we do think that annual exports are going to continue to trend lower over time. Secular domestic demand in China will pull increasingly large amounts of phosphates away from the export market. And we cannot ignore industrial uses. Battery growth and domestic fertilizers will take precedence over exports, and we expect the Chinese government will continue to force suppliers to prioritize domestic demand.

但我們確實認為，年度出口量隨時間推移將持續走低。中國的結構性國內需求將把越來越多的磷酸鹽從出口市場拉走。而且我們不能忽視工業用途。電池成長與國內肥料需求將優先於出口，我們預期中國政府會持續要求供應商優先滿足國內需求。

Our next question focuses on farmer economics. And I think this one's for you, Jenny. Are grower economics now at the point where nutrient demand destruction is a real threat to the market?

下一個問題聚焦在農民的經濟性。我想這題是給你，Jenny。以目前情況來看，種植戶的經濟性是否已經到了「養分需求被破壞（demand destruction）」成為市場真實威脅的程度？

At today's crop prices around all major growing regions, we are seeing farmers' economics and affordability are very constructive. In the -- it is probably lower than last year's level, but it is far above the historical average. In North America, we are seeing customers and farmers behavior are as normal as the pre-spring season. In Brazil, especially over the last few weeks as the sodium price rise, we are seeing very strong customer buying happening in the country. And in India, we expect the government is going to do, again, readjust their subsidy level in order to support their farmers' demands to phosphate and potash as they did last year.

以目前主要種植區的作物價格來看，我們看到農民的經濟性與可負擔性都非常正向。雖然——可能低於去年的水準，但仍遠高於歷史平均。在北美，我們看到客戶與農民的行為與春耕前的正常狀態一致。在巴西，特別是過去幾週隨著鈉（sodium）價格上漲，我們看到該國出現非常強勁的客戶採購。在印度，我們預期政府將再次調整補貼水準，以支持農民對磷酸鹽與鉀肥的需求，就像去年所做的一樣。

If there's any threat to the consumption or demand, it is probably because of lack of availability across both phosphate and potash. And the global demand is there if the tonnes are available.

如果消費或需求有任何威脅，可能是因為磷酸鹽與鉀肥兩者的供應可得性不足。只要噸數供應得到，全球需求就存在。

Joc, we've received quite a few questions on Phosphate first quarter guidance. 1.6 million to 1.8 million tonnes seems light compared to history. What's happening there? Is the lower sales volume guidance due to operational issues or due to demand destruction and buyers balking at current prices?

Joc，我們收到不少關於磷酸鹽第一季指引的問題。160 萬到 180 萬公噸相較歷史看起來偏低。發生了什麼事？較低的銷售量指引是因為營運問題，還是因為需求被破壞、買方在目前價格下卻步？

Well, thank you. In terms of our expected volumes for quarter 1, I think there's really 2 big issues we have to consider when we look at our sales volume. The first of all is actually quarter 4, where Hurricane Ida and subsequent repair events impacted at the beginning of the fourth quarter and left us with very, very low inventories entering this year, which, of course, tends to contribute to first quarter sales.

好的，謝謝。就我們對第一季的預期出貨量而言，我認為在看銷售量時，確實有兩個主要因素需要考量。第一個其實是第四季：颶風 Ida 以及後續修復事件在第四季初造成影響，使我們在今年初的庫存非常、非常低，而這當然會影響第一季的銷售。

In terms of the other issue from our perspective, it's really the logistics. COVID and winter weather are having a major impact on the supply chain, including rail, ocean freight, ports and trucking logistics. The industry is seeing delays throughout the system, and that's contributing to the lower-than-historical sales volume guidance.

從我們的角度看，另一個問題主要是物流。COVID 與冬季天候正對供應鏈造成重大影響，包括鐵路、海運、港口與卡車運輸物流。整個產業都在系統各環節看到延誤，這也導致銷售量指引低於歷史水準。

Just as an example, rail alone this year, we're seeing about a 20% to 30% increase in cycle time for our trains. And you can expect that to have a big impact on rev rec at the very end of the quarter. That said, we expect our annual sales to be in line with historic norms for Phosphates. Delayed shipments due to supply chain issues will resolve themselves as we come out of the winter weather and we get through this last wave of COVID. So we will see those come in the next quarter or 2.

舉例來說，光是鐵路，今年我們看到列車週轉時間增加約 20% 到 30%。你可以預期這會對季度末的收入認列（rev rec）造成很大影響。話雖如此，我們預期全年磷酸鹽銷售將與歷史常態一致。由供應鏈問題造成的延遲出貨，會在冬季天候結束、以及我們度過這一波 COVID 的最後階段後逐步解決。因此，我們會在接下來一到兩季看到這些出貨回補。

The thing I would emphasize is we're seeing normal buyer behavior. Yes, nutrient prices are up. The crop prices more than offset that and point to a very good year for grower profitability, even if it's a small step back from the 2021 levels. We expect crop prices to continue to incentivize farmers to apply fertilizer as they normally would.

我想強調的是，我們看到買方行為正常。是的，養分價格上漲了；但作物價格的上漲幅度足以抵消，並指向種植戶獲利非常好的一年，即使相較 2021 年水準略有回落。我們預期作物價格將持續激勵農民如常施用肥料。

Clint, our last 2 questions are for you. The first set is on working capital. Can you add some color around working capital and what you anticipate needs to be in 2022?

Clint，最後兩個問題是給你的。第一組是關於營運資金。你能否補充一些營運資金的細節，以及你預期 2022 年需要達到什麼水位？

Sure. Thanks, Paul. So I think, as everyone knows, our business is highly seasonal, and we can experience pretty significant working capital changes throughout the year. And over the last couple of years, we have put in new working capital facilities to help us manage through some of that seasonal dynamic. And in the current pricing environment and the environment that we've been in and the rate of change that we've seen, that just amplifies those seasonal working capital moves.

當然，謝謝你，Paul。我想如同大家所知，我們的業務具有高度季節性，因此一年之中營運資金可能出現相當顯著的變動。過去幾年，我們也建立了新的營運資金融資工具（working capital facilities），以協助我們管理這些季節性波動。而在目前的價格環境、以及我們所處的環境與所看到的變動速度下，這些季節性的營運資金變化只會被進一步放大。

And so more recently, we've upsized some of our working capital lines to better align our options and our tools to the needs of the business. Just to give you a sense, as we look at the second half of last year, our core working capital needs were up well over $1 billion, and majority of that was in the fourth quarter. And as we look forward to 2022, I think any incremental working capital needs are likely to be dictated by the pricing environment that we see. To the extent that the pricing environment moderates and the rate of change moderates, then I think the working capital incremental needs will moderate. But if we do see a continuation of what we've seen in the last 6 months, I think we could expect to see increasing working capital requirements.

因此，最近我們也擴大了部分營運資金授信額度（working capital lines），以便讓我們的選項與工具更貼近業務需求。讓你有個概念：回看去年下半年，我們核心營運資金需求增加了遠超過 10 億美元，其中大部分發生在第四季。展望 2022 年，我認為任何新增的營運資金需求，很可能會由我們所看到的價格環境所決定。若價格環境趨於溫和、變動速度也放緩，那麼營運資金的新增需求也會放緩。但如果我們看到過去 6 個月那樣的情況延續，我認為可以預期營運資金需求會進一步上升。

Clint, our final question is on our capital allocation strategy. We seem to be prioritizing share repurchases over other uses of capital. Is that correct? And what are those other uses? And is it possible to do it all and given our commitment to return up to 75% of our free cash flow to shareholders?

Clint，我們最後一個問題是關於我們的資本配置策略。我們似乎把股票回購放在其他資本用途之前。這樣理解正確嗎？那其他用途有哪些？另外，考量到我們承諾將最多 75% 的自由現金流回饋給股東，是否有可能同時兼顧所有這些用途？

Thanks, Paul. As we look forward to the balance of 2022, we expect to generate a significant amount of earnings and cash flow. And as we think about capital allocation for this year, we intend to continue strengthening both our business and our balance sheet by continuing to invest in high-return and opportunistic investments and paying down debt. But we think we can do those things and return a significant amount of capital to shareholders this year within the construct that we've outlined.

謝謝你，Paul。展望 2022 年剩餘期間，我們預期將產生相當可觀的獲利與現金流。就今年的資本配置而言，我們打算持續強化我們的業務與資產負債表：一方面持續投資於高報酬與具機會性的投資，另一方面償還債務。但我們認為，在我們已說明的架構之下，我們可以同時做到這些，並在今年向股東回饋相當可觀的資本。

Today we announced an increase in our dividend for this year and going forward as well as a buyback using an ASR tool. As we go through the balance of the year, we intend to remain disciplined and nimble and look at different ways of returning capital to our shareholders.

今天我們宣布提高今年以及未來的股利，同時也透過 ASR 工具進行回購。隨著今年剩餘時間推進，我們將保持紀律與靈活性，並評估以不同方式向股東回饋資本。

But our current priority is on buybacks. We look at our share price, where it is, and we think that it is compelling given the environment that we see. So that's our priority today. But again, we intend to remain flexible as we go through the year.

但我們目前的優先事項是回購。我們看著目前的股價水準，並認為在我們所看到的環境下相當具有吸引力。因此，這是我們今天的優先事項。不過再次強調，我們在今年進行過程中會保持彈性。

Thanks, Clint. That wraps up the fireside chat portion of this call. I would now like to turn it over to the audience for your questions.

謝謝你，Clint。以上是本次電話會議的爐邊談話部分。接下來我想把時間交給現場聽眾，請各位提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of John Roberts from UBS.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自 UBS 的 John Roberts。

I assume in Brazil that the competitor distributors are significantly exposed to Russian and Ukrainian potash. If they have to -- if they have trouble sourcing potash, if your competition has trouble sourcing potash, does that also impact their ability to cross-sell other inputs? That is, if farmers have to turn to Fertilizantes for potash, are you likely to pick up the other inputs as well?

我推測在巴西，競爭對手的經銷商在俄羅斯與烏克蘭鉀肥方面的曝險相當大。如果他們必須——如果他們在採購鉀肥上遇到困難，也就是說如果你們的競爭對手在採購鉀肥上有困難，這是否也會影響他們交叉銷售其他農業投入品的能力？也就是說，如果農民必須轉向 Fertilizantes 購買鉀肥，你們是否也可能同時拿下其他投入品的銷售？

Yes. Thanks, John. Certainly, that would offer an opportunity to us, but I suspect what will happen is that actually the blends will probably be adjusted for less potash if there's actual potash shortages. And we do believe there will be a real risk of potash shortages. The Brazil market should be fairly good. They've been delayed by rain, et cetera, so far. But we believe this will be a good market. So we do expect it's going to be very tight for potash as the full impact of the sanctions really comes home to roost, if you will.

是的。謝謝你，John。當然，這會為我們帶來機會，但我猜實際上如果真的出現鉀肥短缺，配方混配（blends）可能會調整為降低鉀肥用量。我們確實認為鉀肥短缺存在實質風險。巴西市場應該相當不錯；到目前為止受到降雨等因素影響而有所延後。但我們相信這會是一個好的市場。因此，隨著制裁的全面影響真正開始顯現（如果你願意這麼說），我們預期鉀肥供應會非常吃緊。

So yes, we may pick up a little bit, but I don't think it will be because of the blend opportunity versus others. I think it will just be because of people trying to get hold of potash.

所以是的，我們可能會多拿到一點份額，但我不認為那會是因為相較他人有混配上的機會。我認為只是因為大家都在想辦法取得鉀肥。

Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Joel Jackson。

If Nutrien decided that some of these issues around Belarus -- BPC -- are persistent and they wanted to really un-idle their millions of excess tonnes, hire a bunch of miners in Saskatchewan and really ramp up their volume, would you be supportive of that? What I mean is, in Canpotex, obviously, you would get your -- you should get your pro rata sales share. If Nutrien can add millions of tonnes to their production, and you cannot, you would not get -- you would have to refuse the ability to produce your pro rata and give it to Nutrien. Would you be supportive of that? Or would you seek to renegotiate a little bit how Canpotex works?

如果 Nutrien 判斷白俄羅斯——BPC——相關的一些問題會持續存在，並且他們想要真正把數百萬噸的閒置產能重新啟用、在薩斯喀徹溫省雇用一大批礦工、並大幅拉升出貨量，你們會支持嗎？我的意思是，在 Canpotex 架構下，顯然你們會取得——你們應該取得按比例（pro rata）的銷售份額。如果 Nutrien 能把產量增加數百萬噸，而你們做不到，那你們就無法——你們將不得不放棄按比例生產的能力，並把份額讓給 Nutrien。你們會支持這樣做嗎？還是你們會尋求重新協商 Canpotex 的運作方式？

I don't want to be in any way evasive, Joel, but I cannot answer a question about confidential negotiations that would happen within Canpotex. So I think you can only wait to see what happens this year to know.

Joel，我不想以任何方式顯得在迴避，但我無法回答關於在 Canpotex 內部可能發生的保密協商的問題。所以我想你只能等著看今年會發生什麼，才會知道。

Now having said that, I will say one thing. We have been flexible in the past, as you're well aware, including last year when we had an inability to produce. We asked and allowed Nutrien to produce the gap, which they helped fill. So obviously, we are all very concerned and interested in supporting our customers globally. And so to do that, there will be an element of flexibility. But I can't speak specifically about Canpotex.

不過話說回來，我會說一點：我們過去一直很有彈性，你也很清楚，包括去年當我們無法生產時，我們提出並允許 Nutrien 補上缺口，而他們也協助填補了。因此，很明顯我們都非常關切並有興趣支持全球客戶。為了做到這點，會需要一定程度的彈性。但我無法就 Canpotex 作具體評論。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Parkinson from Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Chris Parkinson。

You've done a pretty solid job over the past few years completing Esterhazy and eliminating brine inflow costs. And now it appears Colonsay has had a nice gap down in cash costs post the issues you were facing in last year. So when we all kind of take a look at this year under the context of current contract spot pricing, higher operating rates, transportation costs, and even the Canadian resource tax, can we just take a step back and just look at where you ultimately think the gross margins should be for this year and perhaps just any additional considerations we should also have for 2023?

過去幾年你們在完成 Esterhazy、並消除鹵水湧入成本方面做得相當不錯。現在看起來，Colonsay 在去年面臨的問題解決後，現金成本也出現了不錯的下降幅度。因此，當我們在今年的情境下，結合目前合約與現貨價格、更高的開工率、運輸成本，甚至加拿大資源稅來看，能否請你退一步，談談你最終認為今年的毛利率應該落在什麼水準？以及對 2023 年我們還應該注意哪些額外考量？

Okay. Thank you, Chris. I guess you've got to look at this in 2 ways: what's the cash margin and what's the gross margin after depreciation. Let me just talk about cash for a moment. And I'm going to be pretty general here. But if you look at -- right now for standard, we have contract through Canpotex for $590 a tonne. I think you can pretty much make estimates. We've announced Colonsay being $85 a tonne, the others are significantly lower than that. And put a round number on transport, which is easy to do, I think you come up with a -- quite frankly, a gross margin -- a cash margin that is at least 50%-plus.

好的。謝謝你，Chris。我想你得從兩個角度來看：一是現金毛利（cash margin），二是扣除折舊後的毛利（gross margin）。我先談一下現金面。我會講得比較概括。但如果你看——以目前標準品而言，我們透過 Canpotex 的合約價是每噸 590 美元。我想你大致可以做一些估算。我們已宣布 Colonsay 是每噸 85 美元，其他礦的成本顯著低於此。再對運輸給一個整數估計（我想這不難），坦白說，你會得到——至少 50% 以上的毛利——現金毛利。

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Adam Samuelson。

I was hoping you could give a little more color on the phosphate operating cost environment. Obviously, inputs have risen here, the way you've framed DAP (inaudible) margins and they have declined as a result at least in the market outlook, Joc. You didn't provide any specific cost guidance in Phosphates for the first quarter that you sometimes do or have done in the past. Any color there? And just maybe a quick follow-up to that last question, Joc, on the cash margin for potash. That's 50% before or after the resource tax?

我希望你能多補充一些磷酸鹽營運成本環境的細節。顯然投入成本已上升；依你對 DAP（聽不清）利差的描述，且在市場展望中它們因此下滑，Joc。你在第一季的磷酸鹽業務沒有提供你有時會提供、或過去曾提供的具體成本指引。能否補充一些說明？另外，針對上一題，Joc，關於鉀肥的現金毛利，那個 50% 是在資源稅之前還是之後？

Well, we're -- we call resource taxes and royalties part of our cash cost. So we're -- or sorry, Clint, do you want to correct that if I'm...

嗯，我們——我們把資源稅與權利金視為現金成本的一部分。所以我們——或者，抱歉 Clint，你要不要糾正一下，如果我……

Yes. So in calculating our cash costs per tonne, we do include royalties in there but do not include CRT.

是的。所以在計算我們每噸現金成本時，我們會把權利金包含在內，但不包含 CRT。

Right. I think our other Canadian producer does not include royalties either. Is that correct? I think they call them both taxes. But there's some inconsistencies between the 2 of those.

對。我想我們另一家加拿大同業也不把權利金算進去。對嗎？我想他們把兩者都稱為稅。但兩者之間確實存在一些不一致。

But I would say that both of those are in our EBITDA calculation.

但我會說，這兩項都會納入我們的 EBITDA 計算。

Yes. And do recognize the resource tax is quite significant right now. So in terms of Florida costs, if you will, for phosphates, the way you can look at it is, first of all, our average ammonia cost, which if -- we pay 20% of -- sorry, 20% of the cost per tonne of ammonia goes into -- so if ammonia costs $600, you can times that by 0.2, and that's the cost inside DAP. But right now, market ammonia is probably in the range of -- Jenny? $1,100. So that adds about $200 plus per tonne to the cost of making phosphates.

是的。而且請注意，資源稅目前相當可觀。所以就佛羅里達的成本（如果你願意這麼說）而言，對磷酸鹽你可以這樣看：首先，我們的平均氨成本——如果——我們支付的氨每噸成本有 20% 會進入——所以如果氨的成本是 600 美元，你可以乘以 0.2，那就是 DAP 內含的成本。但目前市場氨價大概在——Jenny？1,100 美元的區間。因此，這會讓生產磷酸鹽的成本每噸增加大約 200 多美元。

Now recognize our costs are significantly lower than that because 2/3 of ours is on a natural gas basis. So for our competitors, call it, $250 per tonne. For us, probably more in half that range would be the right number.

現在請注意，我們的成本其實顯著低於那個水準，因為我們的成本有 2/3 是以天然氣為基礎。所以對我們的競爭對手來說，就算是每噸 250 美元。對我們而言，可能大約是那個區間的一半左右，才是比較合理的數字。

In terms of sulfur, sulfur 40%. So if sulfur price is $300, then your cost in making DAP is probably $120-ish per tonne. So you could look at that for our competitors being a total cost of up to $300 extra a tonne and for us, probably $220 or something, in that range.

就硫磺而言，硫磺占 40%。所以如果硫磺價格是 300 美元，那麼製造 DAP 的成本大概是每噸 120 美元左右。因此你可以把這看作：對我們的競爭對手而言，總成本最多可能每噸多出 300 美元；而對我們而言，可能是 220 美元左右，大概在那個範圍。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Steve Byrne 專線。

Joc, I want to ask you maybe a 2-part question on Fertilizantes. And the first one being these co-product sales. Is that the gypsum or -- I know you have some titanium and overburden there. What's driving that, the co-product sales?

Joc，我想就 Fertilizantes 問一個可能分成兩部分的問題。第一個是這些副產品（co-product）銷售。那是石膏嗎，還是——我知道你們那邊也有一些鈦以及覆蓋層（overburden）。是什麼在推動這些副產品銷售？

And then maybe a higher-level question on Fertilizantes is where do you think you can take that business from here? Is the opportunity in expanding your domestic production there? Or being able to increase more imports with port expansions? Where do you see the most opportunity in Fertilizantes?

然後第二個可能是更高層次的 Fertilizantes 問題：你認為從現在起可以把這個業務帶到什麼程度？機會是在擴大你們在當地的國內產量嗎？還是透過港口擴建來增加進口能力？你認為 Fertilizantes 最大的機會在哪裡？

Okay. So first, co-product sales, I think you're absolutely right. The majority of the co-product sales is likely the sale of gypsum, but there's a number of co-products, whether they be produced from some of our wastewater streams or whatever. But we sold last year, I think, over $400 million of co-products, with pretty healthy margin because the cost of these, of course, is very low. So we feel that's a pretty attractive place.

好的。先談副產品銷售，我想你說得完全正確。副產品銷售的大部分很可能是石膏的銷售，但其實還有多種副產品，可能來自我們的一些廢水流程或其他來源。不過我們去年出售的副產品，我記得超過 4 億美元，而且毛利相當健康，因為這些產品的成本當然非常低。所以我們覺得這是一個相當有吸引力的領域。

And of course, when you sell gypsum, that's gyps tax you don't have to make in the future. So again, a big piece of the long-term business improvement will be those sales of co-products and particularly the sale of gypsum.

當然，當你出售石膏時，那就是未來你不必再生產的石膏。因此，長期業務改善的一大部分將來自這些副產品的銷售，特別是石膏的銷售。

In terms of moving this business forward, you're right, there's a number of opportunities. I think there is a number of new opportunities for co-products and particularly when you look at titanium, niobium and whatnot, that is naturally in our ore and is made by our neighbors, at least our neighbors at Catalao.

就推動這項業務向前而言，你說得對，確實有多個機會。我認為副產品方面也有不少新機會，尤其是當你看到鈦、鈮等等——這些天然存在於我們的礦石中，而且至少在 Catalao，我們的鄰居也在生產這些。

The other area is distribution. And distribution, particularly as you go to the Northwest part of the country, so Northwest part of Mato Grosso and heading into what we call the [Mato Pito] states, which are the northern states south of the Amazon but in the western side of the country. We believe the distribution opportunity there is high. We are looking very seriously about how we can get a bigger piece of that, how we can participate more in that. So distribution, one area; co-products, new products; and of course, if we can debottleneck or improve our existing operations, that's another great area for taking advantage of what is a great market.

另一個領域是通路／配送（distribution）。尤其是當你往該國西北部走，也就是馬托格羅索（Mato Grosso）西北部，並進入我們所稱的 [Mato Pito] 各州——也就是亞馬遜以南、但位於該國西側的北部各州。我們認為那裡的通路機會很大。我們正在非常認真地研究如何取得更大份額、如何更深入參與其中。所以通路是一個方向；副產品與新產品是一個方向；當然，如果我們能為現有營運去瓶頸或改善，那也是另一個很好的領域，可以把握這個非常好的市場。

Your next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Vincent Andrews 專線。

Joc, I was wondering if you could talk a bit about regional phosphate prices and just the gap that exists between India and the rest of the world basically, and how you envision that evolving through the course of the year, whether -- how it will converge or if it will converge.

Joc，我想請你談談區域性的磷肥價格，以及基本上印度與世界其他地區之間存在的價差；並且你如何看待這個價差在今年過程中的演變——是否會收斂、以及會如何收斂。

Yes. Okay. Thanks, Vincent. I'm going to start off, but I'm going to hand it over to Jenny. But I think what you'd be fair to say is when the demand started really picking up this year, India was the first to respond. And in the typical winter lull, North American prices probably lagged, but those are quickly catching up as we get closer to the North American spring. But let me let Jenny talk a little bit about price disparity around the world and what that means.

是的。好的。謝謝你，Vincent。我先開頭，然後交給 Jenny。不過我想可以公平地說，當今年需求開始真正回升時，印度是第一個做出反應的。在典型的冬季淡季期間，北美價格可能落後一些，但隨著我們接近北美春季，那些價格正在快速追上。接下來讓 Jenny 談談全球的價格差異以及其意涵。

Sure, Joc. Yes, you mentioned due to the very low input in India last year, we saw the pent-up demand. And for sure, that was realized in the first 2 months of the year. And the Indians basically paid DAP price up to $920. Vincent, I think you referred to the gap between India and the rest of the world.

好的，Joc。是的，你提到由於印度去年進口量非常低，我們看到了被壓抑的需求。確實，這在今年前兩個月就被釋放出來。印度方面基本上支付的 DAP 價格最高到 920 美元。Vincent，我想你提到的是印度與世界其他地區之間的價差。

And with the crop prices rallied in Brazil, over the last few weeks, we saw the Brazilian players also stepped into the market. After yesterday, the gap between Brazil on phosphate to India are very close. So we saw the price of MAP in Brazil already reach over to $900 per tonne.

而隨著巴西作物價格在過去幾週上漲，我們也看到巴西的買家進入市場。到昨天之後，巴西在磷肥上的價格與印度已非常接近。因此我們看到巴西的 MAP 價格已經達到每噸 900 美元以上。

And similarly to NOLA, we saw some seasonal price lows. And over the last 2 weeks, that price has rebounded, and we saw the shrinking of the price gap between NOLA in India as well. Overall, we see a pretty much strong demand supported by the farm economics and also pent-up demand in India, and in the case of China as well. We see the fundamental of the phosphate market is going to continue to be tight, and the price level is going to stay at an elevated level.

同樣地，在 NOLA，我們也看到一些季節性的價格低點。而在過去兩週，價格已反彈，我們也看到 NOLA 與印度之間的價差在縮小。整體而言，我們看到在農業經濟支撐下需求相當強勁，同時印度（以及中國的情況也是如此）存在被壓抑的需求。我們認為磷肥市場的基本面將持續偏緊，而價格水準將維持在高檔。

And let me just highlight in North America, we don't participate in those fluctuations of price that occur when the traders start trading at the Gulf. We kept our price list constant through that. And very quickly, once the pricing windows ended, prices came up to our price list.

另外我想強調，在北美，我們不參與那些當交易商開始在墨西哥灣交易時所出現的價格波動。我們在那段期間維持價目表不變。而且很快地，一旦定價窗口結束，價格就回升到我們的價目表水準。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Piken from Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken 專線。

Just wanted to get a sense in terms of your longer-term expectations for India's ability to continue to afford fertilizer. I know that they've raised their subsidies, but it seems like prices are going up at a pretty fast rate. How do you sort of see India's demand evolving over the next several years, not just in 2022 where they need to restock?

我想了解一下你們對印度長期持續負擔得起肥料的能力之預期。我知道他們提高了補貼，但看起來價格上漲速度相當快。你如何看待印度未來幾年（不只是 2022 年他們需要補庫存）需求的演變？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. Look, I think India -- this becomes more than a simple problem for a country like India with 700 [million] people living in basic poverty and relying on the agricultural economy. The Modi government needs to be responsive to those people. So they have a tight balance to keep food security and food affordability for their population and also keep their farmers able to be profitable so that they keep farming. So our expectation is that India will continue to thread that -- or walk that tight rope as best they can.

是的。謝謝你，Michael。你看，我認為對印度來說——這已不只是個簡單問題。印度有 7 億[百萬]人口生活在基本貧困中，並依賴農業經濟。莫迪政府必須對這些人有所回應。因此他們必須在兩者之間取得艱難平衡：一方面維持糧食安全與糧食可負擔性，另一方面也要讓農民能夠獲利，才能持續耕作。所以我們的預期是，印度將會盡其所能持續在那條鋼索上前進——或說盡力走好那條鋼索。

So they will have to respond to global pricing. They will have to make sure they get the fertilizer they need. And we're seeing that right now. I mean with the fast settlement of their potash and the -- at $590. They were the first to settle with Canpotex quite early, and I think that reflects the pent-up demand that they need to make sure it gets out to their farmers.

因此他們必須對全球定價做出回應。他們必須確保取得所需的肥料。我們現在就看到了。比如他們很快就以 590 美元完成了鉀肥的結算——他們很早就與 Canpotex 達成結算，我認為這反映了被壓抑的需求：他們需要確保肥料能送到農民手上。

And then we just talked about their willingness to pay $930 or $920 for phosphates. So we're seeing the buyer response. We know the government will have to either help with food subsidies or with fertilizer subsidies to keep that balance. And I know when it comes down to food securities, they're going to do what they have to do to make sure that works. And that's long term and short term.

然後我們也剛談到他們願意為磷肥支付 930 或 920 美元。所以我們看到買方的反應。我們知道政府將不得不透過糧食補貼或肥料補貼來維持那個平衡。而且我知道，一旦涉及糧食安全，他們會做必須做的事，以確保這套機制運作。不論長期或短期都是如此。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Andrew Wong 專線。

Just a couple of questions here. First on Fertilizantes, can you just talk about why the phosphate rock and conversion costs continue to move up through the year? Is that mostly due to local inflation? And what's the expected run rate of the current FX rates for this year and going forward?

這裡有幾個問題。首先關於 Fertilizantes，你能否談談為什麼磷礦石與轉換成本在今年持續上升？這主要是因為當地通膨嗎？另外，今年以及往後，目前匯率（FX rates）的預期運行水準（run rate）是多少？

And then maybe a second question, probably more for Clint. Mosaic is a very complicated business. It's across multiple geographies and product lines. And I mean it can be difficult sometimes to model out some of the variabilities around the quarters and even maybe for the year. Is there any thought on providing some more specific guidance, such as maybe including Fertilizantes in the kind of quarterly outlook guidance or maybe even cutting to like a specific EBITDA line?

然後第二個問題，可能更適合問 Clint。Mosaic 是一個非常複雜的業務，跨越多個地理區域與產品線。我的意思是，有時候要把季度之間、甚至全年一些變動因素建模出來會很困難。你們是否考慮提供更具體的指引，例如把 Fertilizantes 納入類似季度展望指引中，或甚至切到一條更具體的 EBITDA 指引線？

Okay. Thanks, Andrew. And I will leave the tougher guidance question to Clint because that's only fair. Let me start with Fertilizantes and the cost structure at Fertilizantes. There's a lot of factors, I think, that are impacting Fertilizantes right now. I mean the first of it, as you mentioned, is inflation. And if you look at U.S. dollars, it's probably easier to see where that's been not as severe as what it might look like.

好的。謝謝你，Andrew。我會把比較棘手的財測指引問題留給Clint，因為那樣才公平。讓我先從Fertilizantes以及Fertilizantes的成本結構談起。我認為目前有很多因素正在影響Fertilizantes。首先，如你提到的，是通膨。而如果以美元來看，可能更容易看出其嚴重程度沒有表面上看起來那麼高。

But Brazil is probably seeing, in industrial inflation, somewhere in that 15% to 20% this year. And that's having a real day-to-day impact on cost structures. The other thing that has hurt Brazil in the last while, of course, is COVID. It has made it a lot more difficult to do mechanical or maintenance turnarounds. It's made getting supply chain people in place, et cetera, et cetera. So there's maintenance that takes longer, just a lot of little niggly things that come with the people problems and the COVID problems. And then there's, of course, supply chain issues getting materials, and when you get materials, they're more expensive.

但巴西今年的工業通膨可能在15%到20%之間。這對成本結構的日常運作造成了實質影響。當然，最近一段時間傷害巴西的另一件事是COVID。它讓機械檢修或維修停工（turnarounds）變得困難得多；也讓供應鏈人員到位等變得更困難，等等。因此維護作業耗時更久，還有許多因人力問題與COVID問題帶來的零碎小麻煩。再者，當然還有供應鏈問題：材料取得不易，而即使拿到材料，價格也更高。

So all of those things are impacting. We think that long-term U.S. dollar and U.S. dollar to Brazilian reals will be offset with the inflation rates. So in other words, if the inflation keeps higher than U.S., it will probably be equalized by exchange rates. And the other issues should go away with COVID and whatnot as things sort of return to more normal.

所以，所有這些因素都在造成影響。我們認為，長期來看，以美元計價以及美元兌巴西雷亞爾的匯率變動，會與通膨率相互抵銷。換句話說，如果通膨持續高於美國，匯率可能會使其趨於平衡。而其他問題也應會隨著COVID等因素消退、情況逐步回歸正常而改善。

Your next question comes from the line of...

你的下一個問題來自於……

Sorry. Operator, we still have the second part of that question.

抱歉。接線員，我們還有那個問題的第二部分。

Andrew, this is Clint. And thanks for your question on guidance. I think as we've spoken about before, one of the challenging things about providing specific earnings guidance is just how quickly and materially prices can change, and that can obviously change our expectations and outlook for the year. But what we have tried to do is to provide a framework, provide areas of our cost structure, of our spend and so forth, that can be helpful in modeling the company.

Andrew，我是Clint。謝謝你關於財測指引的提問。我想如同我們之前談過的，提供具體盈餘指引的一個挑戰在於價格變動可能非常快速且幅度很大，而這顯然會改變我們對全年預期與展望。不過，我們一直嘗試提供一個框架，提供我們成本結構、支出等方面的資訊，讓大家在建模公司時更有幫助。

I know that Paul and I have been speaking particularly about Fertilizantes, and is there some more information and detail we can provide around that business to help investors understand and model that business better. So I think that is an ongoing conversation internally. I would expect us to put a little bit more focus on that as time goes on. And if there are other areas that you would find particularly helpful in understanding some of the complexity, certainly, we're open to those discussions and to get feedback on that.

我知道Paul和我特別一直在談Fertilizantes，是否能就該業務提供更多資訊與細節，幫助投資人更好理解並更好地為該業務建模。所以我認為這在內部仍是持續進行的討論。我預期隨著時間推進，我們會在這方面投入更多重點。如果還有其他領域能特別幫助你理解某些複雜性，我們當然也願意進一步討論並聽取回饋。

Your next question comes from the line of Adrien Tamagno from Berenberg.

你的下一個問題來自Berenberg的Adrien Tamagno。

I have one question on [forecast]. You seem to suggest that you would be able to reach a normal level of volumes for the full year '22. I was just curious if there are some more company-specific actions to counter the impacts of supply chain bottlenecks, or if you assume that the market will normalize at some point and -- yes. It could be easier to move [product] to the [farmers].

我有一個關於[forecast]的問題。你們似乎表示在2022年全年可以達到正常水準的出貨量。我只是好奇，為了抵消供應鏈瓶頸的影響，是否有一些公司層面的特定措施，還是你們假設市場會在某個時間點恢復正常——是的。把[product]運到[farmers]可能會更容易。

I'm sorry, I've got such a staticky line here. I only -- I didn't catch most of that. Can we try -- can you try repeating that, Adrien?

抱歉，我這邊線路雜訊很大。我只——我大部分都沒聽清楚。Adrien，我們能不能再試一次——你可以再重複一遍嗎？

Yes. Sure. This question is the full year volume guidance for phosphate (inaudible) within just the normalization of the market in terms of supply chain or is there company-specific actions to your (inaudible).

好的，當然。這個問題是關於磷酸鹽（聽不清）全年出貨量指引：這是否只是基於市場在供應鏈方面的正常化，還是你們有公司層面的特定行動來應對（聽不清）。

I sort of got phosphate and market, but that's about all I really got. Okay. Maybe Adrien, maybe we can let Paul talk to you after this. I'm sorry, we -- the connection was so bad, we really didn't hear that well at all. So maybe, Paul -- you can contact Paul and we can talk. Thank you. Sorry.

我大概只聽到磷酸鹽和市場，其他就真的沒聽到。好吧。也許Adrien，我們讓Paul在會後跟你談。很抱歉——連線太差了，我們真的幾乎都聽不清楚。所以也許，Paul——你可以聯絡Paul，我們再聊。謝謝你。抱歉。

Your last question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

你最後一個問題來自JPMorgan的Jeff Zekauskas。

Do you expect the global phosphate market to tighten in 2023, or to loosen, or you can't tell?

你預期2023年全球磷酸鹽市場會趨緊、趨鬆，還是你也無法判斷？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. I'm going to let Jenny talk a little bit about this. But let me start off by saying as we look at this over the next, let's say, 3 to 5 years, and even short term, short term, we expect China's exports to be lower, which should lead to a tightness in the next little while. And as we look forward from that, assuming the market continues to grow at the normal rates, we don't have any big projects coming forward that we think are going to fill that gap. So we see it tight this year and, assuming our Chinese estimates are correct, continuing tight for the next 4 or 5 years even.

好的，謝謝你，Jeff。我會讓Jenny就此多談一點。不過我先說，當我們看未來——比如說——3到5年，甚至短期來看，短期內我們預期中國的出口會降低，這應該會在接下來一段時間導致市場偏緊。再往前看，假設市場仍以正常速度成長，我們沒有看到任何我們認為能填補這個缺口的大型專案即將投產。因此我們認為今年市場偏緊，而且如果我們對中國的估計正確，未來4到5年甚至也會持續偏緊。

And then as we look at the evolution of industrial uses for phosphates, and we talked about lithium iron phosphate batteries in particular, but as we move into those other uses for phosphates, particularly in China, we do expect long term that the Chinese exports will continue to decline and that new projects that are -- haven't been called yet and take 4 or 5 years will have to fill that gap. Jenny, anything else? Okay. So Jenny is fine.

另外，當我們觀察磷酸鹽工業用途的演進——我們特別談到磷酸鐵鋰電池——但隨著磷酸鹽進入其他用途，尤其是在中國，我們確實預期長期而言中國出口將持續下降，而一些尚未被宣布、且需要4到5年時間的新專案將必須填補這個缺口。Jenny，還有要補充的嗎？好。那Jenny沒有補充。

Okay. Look, with that, I will conclude our call here by reiterating some of our key messages. Mosaic delivered excellent financial performance in 2021 driven by very strong agricultural and fertilizer markets and by leveraging the value we have created through major investments and cost restructuring. We look forward to returning much of that value that we created to our shareholders through the accelerated share repurchase, our new repurchase authorization and an increased dividend target. And with continued high levels of global fertilizer demand and ongoing tight supplies in both potash and phosphates, we expect another year of very strong value creation in 2022.

好的。那麼，我將在此結束本次電話會議，並重申我們的一些關鍵訊息。Mosaic在2021年交出優異的財務表現，主要受非常強勁的農業與肥料市場帶動，並且透過運用我們藉由重大投資與成本重整所創造的價值。我們期待透過加速股份回購、我們新的回購授權，以及提高股利目標，把我們所創造的價值很大一部分回饋給股東。隨著全球肥料需求持續維持高檔，且鉀肥與磷酸鹽供給仍然吃緊，我們預期2022年將是另一個創造非常強勁價值的一年。

Thank you for your call -- for the call, and have a great day.

謝謝你們參與——參與本次電話會議，祝你們有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。