美盛公司 (MOS) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2022 年第二季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

Your host for today's call is Paul Massoud, Vice President of Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis of The Mosaic Company. Mr. Massoud, you may begin.

今天會議的主持人是美國美盛公司投資人關係暨財務規劃與分析副總裁 Paul Massoud。Massoud 先生，您可以開始。

Thank you and welcome to our second quarter 2022 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Joc O’Rourke, President and Chief Executive Officer, followed by a fireside chat as well as open Q&A. Clint Freeland, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Senior Vice President of Global Strategic Marketing, will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2022 年第二季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由總裁兼執行長 Joc O’Rourke 提供，接著進行爐邊談話以及開放式問答。資深副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及全球策略行銷資深副總裁 Jenny Wang 也將在場回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. Statements include but are not limited to statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release furnished yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

在本次電話會議中，我們將發表前瞻性陳述。相關陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。這些陳述係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中。我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Joc.

現在我想把電話會議交給 Joc。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our second quarter 2022 earnings discussion. I hope you've had a chance to review our posted slides as well as our news release and performance data, which were made available on our website yesterday. I will provide more additional context before we respond to questions we received last night, and then we'll conclude with a live Q&A session.

早安。感謝各位參加我們 2022 年第二季財報討論。我希望各位已經有機會檢視我們已上傳的簡報，以及我們的新聞稿與績效資料；這些資料已於昨日在我們的網站上提供。在回應我們昨晚收到的問題之前，我會先提供更多背景說明，之後我們將以即時問答環節作結。

Mosaic delivered second quarter net income of $1 billion and earnings per share of $2.85. Adjusted earnings per share were $3.64 and adjusted EBITDA was $2 billion. Free cash flow totaled $794 million, allowing us to return $667 million to shareholders during the second quarter, including $612 million of share repurchases, bringing the year-to-date buyback total through June 30 to over $1 billion. We've continued to buy back shares aggressively through July because we believe our portfolio positions us to continue driving strong results and generating significant cash flow through the rest of the year and into 2023. As such, Mosaic's Board of Directors has approved a new $2 billion share repurchase authorization to begin once the current one is exhausted later this year.

美盛第二季淨利為 10 億美元，每股盈餘為 2.85 美元。調整後每股盈餘為 3.64 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 20 億美元。自由現金流合計 7.94 億美元，使我們得以在第二季向股東回饋 6.67 億美元，其中包含 6.12 億美元的庫藏股回購，使截至 6 月 30 日的年初至今回購總額超過 10 億美元。由於我們相信公司的資產組合使我們能在今年剩餘期間並延續至 2023 年持續推動強勁成果並產生可觀現金流，因此我們在 7 月仍持續積極回購股份。因此，美盛董事會已核准一項新的 20 億美元股票回購授權，將在今年稍晚現行授權用罄後開始執行。

Before digging deeper into our business, let's discuss the broader agricultural markets. There are several issues threatening global food security. The war in Ukraine continues to create uncertainty around food supply from one of the world's most important crop producers. In addition, Europe and U.S. have experienced very high temperatures, while Southern Brazil is showing signs of drought conditions. And all of this is happening at a time of lower overall nutrient applications because of constrained supply. Each of these issues alone can have a material effect on global crop production. But together, the risk to food security is significant. This suggests global stock-to-use ratios, which are already near 20-year lows, will remain under pressure. Because of this, we see a tight supply and demand scenario for global grains and oilseeds continuing through 2022 and into 2023.

在更深入討論我們的業務之前，先談談更廣泛的農業市場。有數項議題正威脅全球糧食安全。烏克蘭戰爭持續為全球最重要作物生產國之一的糧食供應帶來不確定性。此外，歐洲與美國經歷了極端高溫，而巴西南部則出現乾旱跡象。而這一切發生在整體養分施用量下降的時點，原因在於供應受限。上述每一項因素單獨存在都可能對全球作物產量造成重大影響；但當它們同時發生時，對糧食安全的風險就相當顯著。這意味著全球庫存使用比（stock-to-use ratios）已接近 20 年低點，仍將持續承壓。因此，我們認為全球穀物與油籽的供需緊俏情境將延續至 2022 年並進入 2023 年。

As we focus on the potash and phosphate fertilizer markets, the fundamentals remain quite strong. In potash, we continue to expect Belarusian exports to be down 8 million tonnes this year. Some of that will be mitigated by incremental supply from producers like Mosaic over the next 18 months. But that will not be enough to erase the deficit that we see lasting well into 2023 at least. In phosphates, China has continued to restrict exports as it prioritizes domestic industrial and agricultural demand. We now believe full year phosphate exports from China could be down as much as 5 million tonnes from the prior year total of 11.5 million tonnes.

聚焦於鉀肥與磷肥市場，基本面仍相當強勁。在鉀肥方面，我們仍預期白俄羅斯今年出口將減少 800 萬噸。未來 18 個月內，包括美盛在內的生產商將提供部分增量供給以緩解缺口，但仍不足以消除我們預期至少將延續至 2023 年的供應赤字。在磷肥方面，中國持續限制出口，優先滿足國內工業與農業需求。我們目前認為，中國全年磷肥出口量可能較前一年 1,150 萬噸的總量減少多達 500 萬噸。

Shifting focus, we believe global fertilizer demand in the first half of 2022 was down about 10% from the same period last year, which aligns with the shortfall we've seen in supply. Grower sentiment has grown more cautious. But supply constraints are supporting global prices and margins well above historical levels, a situation we believe will continue at least through the rest of the year. North America and Brazil have been well supplied thus far in '22, but much of the rest of the world is continuing to see unfilled demand of both phosphates and potash as a result of limited supply.

轉換焦點，我們認為 2022 年上半年全球肥料需求較去年同期下降約 10%，這與我們所見的供應缺口一致。種植戶情緒變得更為審慎。然而，供應受限支撐了全球價格與利潤率，使其遠高於歷史水準；我們認為此情況至少將延續至今年剩餘期間。北美與巴西在 2022 年迄今供應相對充足，但世界其他多數地區因供應有限，磷肥與鉀肥仍持續出現未被滿足的需求。

In North America, a compressed planting season, macroeconomic headwinds and volatile crop prices impact spring season consumption. First half applications were down from the record year in 2021 but remained in line with historic levels. Looking forward, we expect normal demand leading up to fall application. In Brazil, we saw first half demand in line with historic levels. Channel inventories were built in country by importers driven by concerns over supply availabilities stemming from geopolitical events. Significant customer prepays, though, indicate farmer demand will ramp up as the softer season gets underway.

在北美，緊縮的播種季、總體經濟逆風以及作物價格波動影響春季用量。上半年施用量雖低於 2021 年的創紀錄水準，但仍與歷史水準一致。展望未來，我們預期在秋季施用前需求將維持正常。在巴西，我們看到上半年需求與歷史水準一致。由於地緣政治事件引發對供應可得性的擔憂，進口商在當地建立了通路庫存。不過，顯著的客戶預付款顯示，隨著淡季展開，農戶需求將加速回升。

In India, we've begun to see importers enter the market and take advantage of the recent price pullback in phosphates. India's phosphate inventories are low and concerns over availability persist. Farmer demand for nutrients remains very strong, and the government continues to indicate it will ensure adequate supply for domestic consumption. In China, port inventories of potash sit below 2 million tonnes. And in Southeast Asia, shipments of potash appear below historic levels. We see these dynamics impacting demand beyond 2022 as reduced application this year will require a catch-up in future years when supply availability improves.

在印度，我們已開始看到進口商進入市場，並利用近期磷肥價格回落的機會。印度的磷肥庫存偏低，對供應可得性的擔憂仍在。農戶對養分的需求依然非常強勁，政府也持續表示將確保國內消費有足夠供應。在中國，港口鉀肥庫存低於 200 萬噸。在東南亞，鉀肥出貨量似乎低於歷史水準。我們認為，這些動態將使需求影響延伸至 2022 年以後，因為今年施用量下降，將在未來供應可得性改善時需要補施。

As we look at our business in the context of today's global markets, we remain optimistic. The investments we've made over the last decade have positioned us well for today's environment. In Brazil, our 2018 acquisition of the Fertilizantes business has driven significant shareholder value. We've seen EBITDA grow from less than $70 million in pro forma 2017 to $1.2 billion over the last 12 months. And we've completely recapitalized the business, having now bought back all of the shares issued and repaid all of the borrowing to fund that deal.

在當前全球市場背景下檢視我們的業務，我們仍保持樂觀。過去十年所做的投資，使我們在今日的環境中具備良好定位。在巴西，我們於 2018 年收購 Fertilizantes 業務，已為股東創造顯著價值。我們看到 EBITDA 從 2017 年備考（pro forma）不到 7,000 萬美元，成長至過去 12 個月的 12 億美元。此外，我們已徹底完成該業務的資本重整：目前已回購當時發行的所有股份，並償還為該交易融資的全部借款。

Looking forward, Mosaic Fertilizantes will continue to benefit from its market position as the country's largest producer and second-largest distributor. We are seeing inflation in our cost structure but believe ongoing optimization should offset much of the impact. In potash, we are realizing the benefits of K3, one of the world's most efficient potash mines, and we're actively working to optimize that asset. We've reached our initial operating run rate target of 5.5 million tonnes per year at the end of the first quarter and plan to continue our optimization of the complex with the addition of 3 new underground miners over the next year, resulting in an incremental 1 million tonnes of production capacity.

展望未來，Mosaic Fertilizantes 將持續受惠於其市場地位，作為巴西最大的生產商與第二大經銷商。我們看到成本結構出現通膨，但相信持續的最佳化可抵銷多數影響。在鉀肥方面，我們正實現 K3 的效益；K3 是全球效率最高的鉀肥礦之一，我們也正積極推動該資產的最佳化。我們已於第一季末達成最初的營運目標年化運轉率 550 萬噸，並計畫在未來一年新增 3 台地下採礦機，持續最佳化該綜合礦區，從而新增 100 萬噸的產能。

At Colonsay, we've begun the process of restarting the second mill, which should expand output to 2 million tonnes per year by the second half of 2023. In phosphates, we continue to benefit from our advantaged position in ammonia, and we're now seeing an improvement in sulfur costs that should begin to flow through to our production costs later this year. We've seen prices moderate down to levels we believe are sustainable for the rest of the year. As a result, we expect our stripping margins will remain well above historic levels.

在 Colonsay，我們已開始重啟第二座磨礦廠的流程，預計到 2023 年下半年將產量擴增至每年 200 萬噸。在磷肥方面，我們持續受惠於在氨（ammonia）上的有利地位；同時，我們也看到硫磺成本改善，預期將於今年稍晚開始反映在我們的生產成本中。我們看到價格已回落至我們認為在今年剩餘期間可持續的水準。因此，我們預期我們的剝採利潤率（stripping margins）將仍遠高於歷史水準。

Given the outlook for our business and the free cash flow we expect to generate, capital allocation remains a key focus for us. First, we continue to invest in our business. For 2022, total capital expenditures remain unchanged at $1.3 billion. We remain open to modest, high-returning projects and small bolt-on acquisitions, especially in Brazil, but we are not interested in large-scale greenfield projects. Second, we're committed to ensuring a strong balance sheet and plan to retire $550 million of long-term debt in the second half of 2022, after which, we see no need to further deleverage.

基於我們對業務前景的看法以及預期可產生的自由現金流，資本配置仍是我們的重點。第一，我們持續投資於本業。2022 年總資本支出維持不變，為 13 億美元。我們對規模適中且高報酬的專案與小型補強式併購（bolt-on acquisitions）持開放態度，特別是在巴西；但我們對大型綠地（greenfield）專案不感興趣。第二，我們致力於維持強健的資產負債表，並計畫在 2022 年下半年償還 5.5 億美元的長期債務；在此之後，我們認為沒有必要再進一步去槓桿。

The third pillar of our strategy is returning capital to shareholders. Year-to-date, we returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. And we expect that pace to continue, if not accelerate, as the year progresses. In total, we expect to return essentially 100% of our free cash flow after the commitments to the business and the balance sheet we've discussed.

我們策略的第三個支柱是將資本回饋給股東。今年迄今，我們透過庫藏股回購與股利向股東回饋了11億美元。我們預期這樣的步調將會持續，甚至隨著年度推進而加快。總體而言，在我們已討論過對業務與資產負債表的承諾之後，我們預期將回饋基本上相當於自由現金流的100%。

Because we're approaching the end of our current authorization, our Board of Directors approved a new authorization of $2 billion that begins once we've exhausted the current authorization. At today's valuation, buying back our own shares provides better economics than any other use of cash. So we expect to take advantage of this as long as the opportunity remains. We may also consider supplementing share repurchases with special dividends over time depending on market conditions. As we've said in the past, we will not build cash on the balance sheet just for the sake of it.

由於我們正接近目前授權額度的尾聲，董事會核准了一項新的20億美元授權，將在我們用盡現有授權後開始生效。以今日的估值來看，回購本公司股票所帶來的經濟效益優於任何其他現金用途。因此，只要這個機會仍然存在，我們預期會加以把握。隨著時間推移，我們也可能視市場狀況考慮以特別股利來補充股票回購。正如我們過去所說，我們不會只是為了累積而在資產負債表上堆積現金。

Before going into Q&A, allow me to summarize. Mosaic delivered very strong results in the second quarter, and we expect favorable dynamics as we continue through the year and into 2023. We're continuing to help the world grow the food it needs by ensuring customer demands are met, and we're returning significant capital to shareholders while still investing in the business and strengthening our balance sheet.

在進入問答之前，請容我做個總結。Mosaic在第二季交出非常強勁的成果，我們預期在今年剩餘時間以及進入2023年後，仍將出現有利的動態。我們持續透過確保滿足客戶需求，協助世界生產所需的糧食；同時，在持續投資業務並強化資產負債表之際，我們也向股東回饋可觀的資本。

Now with that, I would like to move on to the Q&A portion of the call.

接下來，我想進入本次電話會議的問答環節。

As we've done in past quarters, we'd like to address some of the most common questions we received after we published our earnings materials last night.

如同過去幾個季度一樣，我們想針對昨晚發布財報資料後收到的一些最常見問題進行回應。

Joc, just to start, I think it might be helpful to provide an update on potash and phosphate supply constraints. What are we seeing in the market today?

Joc，先從一開始，我想提供一個關於鉀肥與磷酸鹽供應受限的最新情況可能會有幫助。我們今天在市場上看到了什麼？

Thank you, Paul. Let's start with potash. The Belarusian and Russian exports together we expect to be down by about 12 million tonnes this year due to the effect of sanctions. Now we do expect recovery from both Russian and Belarusian exports as we move into 2023, but the world is going to need those tonnes if demand snaps back in any way over the next year. So where do we see Russia? Probably easier to come back. They're finding ways into the market. We're seeing their tonnes, particularly in countries like Brazil, India and Central America. Belarus has had very little comeback. They are probably moving 100,000 tonnes a month through to China by rail. But other than that, we're seeing very little of Belarusian product in the market. So we expect between the 2 of them, like I said at the start, 12 million tonnes.

謝謝你，Paul。我們先從鉀肥談起。由於制裁的影響，我們預期白俄羅斯與俄羅斯的出口合計今年將減少約1,200萬公噸。展望2023年，我們確實預期俄羅斯與白俄羅斯的出口都會有所恢復，但如果未來一年需求以任何方式回升，全球都將需要這些噸數。那麼俄羅斯的情況如何？可能比較容易回來。他們正在尋找進入市場的方法。我們看到他們的貨量，特別是在巴西、印度與中美洲等國家。白俄羅斯的回流非常有限。他們大概每月透過鐵路向中國運送10萬公噸。但除此之外，我們在市場上幾乎看不到白俄羅斯產品。因此，如同我一開始所說，我們預期兩者合計約1,200萬公噸。

In phosphates, the biggest player, of course, is China in terms of export restrictions, and those have been extended into the second half of the year. Our projection for Chinese exports this year is down to 7-ish million tonnes from 11.5 million tonnes. So we're seeing a good 5 million tonne reduction of exports. And again, because of the structural changes in China, we really don't expect them to come back in a big way, even after the restrictions end. So in 2023, we expect domestic ag and industrial demand to continue to restrict Chinese exports.

在磷酸鹽方面，最大的角色當然是中國，尤其是在出口限制上，而這些限制已延長至下半年。我們對中國今年出口量的預估已從1,150萬公噸下修至約700萬公噸左右。因此，我們看到出口量大約減少了500萬公噸。同樣地，由於中國的結構性變化，即使限制結束後，我們也不預期他們會大幅回歸。因此在2023年，我們預期國內農業與工業需求仍將持續限制中國的出口。

Given the dynamics we saw in the second quarter, we received several questions on the resiliency of potash and phosphate demand. Can you discuss how you see the second half playing out?

鑑於我們在第二季看到的動態，我們收到幾個關於鉀肥與磷酸鹽需求韌性的問題。你能談談你如何看待下半年將如何發展嗎？

Let me start by saying, because of the lack of supply in both phosphates and potash, demand had to be rationed. And what we saw was that rationing of demand meant lower use in different areas, but specifically lack of supply in some areas. So it's very regional how this played out. In North America particularly, a compressed season because of weather in the spring, led to very late and very limited ability to add fertilizer to ground. So this, combined with growers being willing to mine their soil because of the higher prices, probably led to lower use in the United States and Canada.

我先說，因為磷酸鹽與鉀肥兩者供應不足，需求不得不被配給。我們看到的情況是，需求配給意味著不同領域的使用量下降，但更具體地說，是某些地區出現供應不足。因此，這在各地區的呈現非常不同。尤其在北美，春季天候導致耕作季被壓縮，使得施肥時間非常晚、能夠施肥到土地上的能力也非常有限。再加上因價格較高，種植戶願意「挖掘」土壤養分（降低施肥量），這可能導致美國與加拿大的使用量下降。

But remember, any of this missed or curtailed application will have to be made up in the next couple seasons. So we do expect a very robust normal fall application. Now again, caveat there being it will be late because the planting was late, so the harvest will be late. So it could cross quarters from the third quarter into the fourth quarter. But if I look at the overall second half of the year, we expect it to be very much in line with a normal year here in the United States and in Canada.

但請記住，任何這些錯過或縮減的施用量，都必須在接下來幾個季節補回來。因此，我們確實預期秋季施肥將非常強勁且回到正常水準。不過同樣要提醒的是，由於播種較晚，收成也會較晚，所以施肥也會偏晚，可能會從第三季跨到第四季。但若我看整體下半年，我們預期在美國與加拿大將大致與正常年度非常一致。

Joc, we received a few questions on elevated inventory levels in Brazil, specifically around potash. How do you think this will affect new sales? And how might this also impact pricing?

Joc，我們收到一些關於巴西庫存水位偏高的問題，特別是鉀肥。你認為這會如何影響新的銷售？又可能如何影響價格？

Thank you. As we discuss Brazil, we have to start by understanding that 85% of fertilizer into Brazil is imported. And at the start of the year, there was a huge concern with the constrained supply over whether or not the country could get the fertilizer it needed for its planting. To put it to a point, the Minister of Agriculture and the President of the country both traveled the world to ensure that imports would be available for Brazil. As such, Brazil led pricing in the first half of the year for around the world. Now because of that, imports were up about 30% year-over-year in the first half.

謝謝。談到巴西，我們必須先理解，進入巴西的肥料有85%是進口的。今年年初，由於供應受限，外界非常擔心該國是否能取得其播種所需的肥料。具體來說，農業部長與該國總統都曾走訪世界各地，以確保巴西能取得進口供應。因此，巴西在上半年帶動了全球的定價。也因為如此，上半年進口量年增約30%。

So as we move into the second half of the year, inventories are high. And because inventories are high, farmers believe they can defer. But ultimately, solid economics for both soybeans and second crop corn are going to drive the farmer to apply fertilizer. And when they start applying, we believe the ramp-up of buying activity will consume the inventory, and we will end the year at a normal place. The best evidence from our perspective of this is the high prepay that we have seen in the last quarter, which indicates that the farmers are getting ready to buy. The farmers are getting ready to apply. They are just waiting for the right time.

因此進入下半年後，庫存偏高。由於庫存偏高，農民認為他們可以延後採購。但最終，大豆與第二季玉米（第二茬玉米）的良好經濟性將驅動農民施用肥料。當他們開始施用時，我們相信採購活動的升溫將消化庫存，並使我們在年底回到正常水準。從我們的角度來看，最好的證據是我們在上一季看到的高額預付款（prepay），這顯示農民正在準備購買、準備施用；他們只是等待合適的時機。

We received a few questions from analysts about our third quarter sales volume guidance, especially for phosphates. Can you provide some context around our expectations for both potash and phosphates over the next 3 months?

我們收到分析師對第三季銷售量指引的一些問題，尤其是磷酸鹽。你能就未來三個月鉀肥與磷酸鹽的預期提供一些背景嗎？

Yes. Thank you. Let me start by saying this is mostly a timing issue. In North America, the late spring and late planting is going to lead to a late harvest. Now that means that the second half demand, while it should be in line with expectation, could come in the fourth quarter rather than the third quarter due to this delayed harvest. So while we expect a very normal second half, where exactly it plays out in terms of the timing is yet to be seen. In Brazil, planting for the second crop corn or the soybeans won't happen until November, December. As such, there is time for them to delay their purchases until the last minute. Now again, in Brazil, just like North America, we expect normal application in the second half of the year. But as always, with higher prices, people are deferring the purchase as late as they can. However, good economics will mean that in both cases we believe normal application will occur. If you do note the high range for the phosphate guidance does align with more typical sales historically, but again, we could see those slipping into the fourth quarter.

可以，謝謝。我先說這主要是時間點的問題。在北美，春季偏晚與播種偏晚將導致收成偏晚。這表示下半年的需求雖然應該符合預期，但由於收成延後，可能會在第四季而非第三季出現。因此，雖然我們預期下半年非常正常，但在時間分布上究竟會如何呈現，仍有待觀察。在巴西，第二茬玉米或大豆的播種要到11月、12月才會進行。因此，他們有時間把採購延後到最後一刻。同樣地，在巴西就像在北美一樣，我們預期下半年施用量正常。但一如往常，在價格較高的情況下，人們會盡可能延後採購。然而，良好的經濟性意味著在這兩種情況下，我們都相信會出現正常施用。若你注意到，磷酸鹽指引的高端區間確實與歷史上較典型的銷售水準一致，但同樣地，我們可能會看到其中一部分遞延到第四季。

Clint, this question is for you. We received a question on our working capital needs in the last few quarters. How do you see that playing out going forward?

Clint，這題是問你的。我們收到一個關於過去幾季營運資金需求的問題。你如何看待未來的走勢？

Thanks, Paul. As we look at working capital, there are a number of dynamics to keep in mind. First, the overall market pricing levels and seasonality that impact our income statement also impact our balance sheet, particularly around working capital. As we've seen the pricing levels and the overall market increase over the last couple of years, that has caused an increase in our core working capital accounts of receivables, inventories and payables. So those tend to follow directionally what's happening with the overall pricing environment. And again, over the last couple of years as a result of that, we've seen the overall working capital needs of the business increase.

謝謝，Paul。談到營運資金，有幾個動態需要記住。第一，影響我們損益表的整體市場價格水準與季節性，也會影響我們的資產負債表，特別是在營運資金方面。過去幾年，隨著價格水準與整體市場上升，這導致我們核心營運資金科目——應收帳款、存貨與應付帳款——增加。因此，這些科目往往會隨整體定價環境的變化而呈現同方向變動。再者，過去幾年也因此，我們看到公司整體的營運資金需求上升。

Now in addition to the impact of the pricing environment that we're operating in, we also have the seasonality of our business that plays out. And so you see some meaningful changes from quarter-to-quarter based on which season we're either in or entering into. First quarter, we tend to see preparation for the spring season. So we typically see inventory builds. We typically see our accruals and payables from the previous year get paid out. And then as we move into the second quarter, we tend to see receivables build. We tend to see other impacts of -- on working capital. So we can see as we move through the seasons, it certainly will play out in our working capital accounts, particularly the seasons in North America and Brazil.

現在，除了我們所處定價環境的影響之外，我們的業務也存在季節性因素。因此，你會看到基於我們所處或即將進入的季節，不同季度之間會出現一些顯著變化。第一季我們通常會為春季做準備，所以一般會看到庫存增加；也通常會看到前一年度的應計費用與應付帳款被支付。接著進入第二季，我們往往會看到應收帳款增加，也會看到其他對營運資金的影響。因此，隨著季節推進，這些因素確實會反映在我們的營運資金科目上，特別是北美與巴西的季節性。

Two things, I think, are good to focus on or to recall, particularly as it relates to Brazil. One is our growing distribution business in Brazil does tend to hold quite a bit of inventory, particularly as it moves into the season, and then it tends to liquidate throughout the season. So that can be a driver of some of our overall working capital. The other element of the Brazil business is around prepayments. Prepayments tend to build in the first half of the year and then reverse out in the second half of the year.

我認為有兩點值得關注或回顧，尤其是與巴西相關。第一，我們在巴西成長中的通路（分銷）業務通常會持有相當多的庫存，特別是在進入旺季時，然後會在旺季期間逐步去化。因此，這可能會推動我們整體營運資金的變動。第二個與巴西業務相關的要素是預付款。預付款通常在上半年增加，並在下半年回轉。

Just to give you a sense of order of magnitude, first half of this year, we saw prepayments in Brazil increase by about $830 million. Again, that's another factor that's influenced by the overall pricing environment. But again, we would expect to see the vast majority of that, if not all of it, reverse out in the back half of the year. And specifically in the third quarter, I would expect somewhere between 50% to 75% of that number to reverse out of working capital. So again, just keep in mind, as you look at our working capital, overall pricing environment impacts it, but also the seasonality of our underlying business.

為了讓你了解大致量級，今年上半年我們看到巴西的預付款增加約8.3億美元。同樣地，這也是受整體定價環境影響的另一個因素。但我們預期其中絕大部分（如果不是全部）會在下半年回轉。具體而言，在第三季，我預期大約有50%到75%的金額會從營運資金中回轉。因此，請記住，當你觀察我們的營運資金時，整體定價環境會影響它，但我們底層業務的季節性也同樣會影響。

That concludes the fireside chat portion of the call. Operator, let's open up the line to follow-up questions.

以上為本次電話會議的爐邊談話部分。接線員，請開放線路進行後續提問。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question.

（接線員指示）我們現在開始第一個問題。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America. I'd like to get your view on where do you take Fertilizantes from here. Joc, you mentioned you were looking at potentially some small bolt-ons down there. What businesses are you largely looking at? And can you also comment on how the gross margins in that business differ between product you produce versus product that you buy and then redistribute? Do you see that split changing going forward as perhaps you expand your capacities?

Steve Byrne，美國銀行。我想了解你們接下來打算如何推進Fertilizantes。Joc，你提到你們可能在那邊尋找一些小型補強式併購（bolt-ons）。你們主要在看哪些類型的業務？另外也請你評論一下，該業務中你們自產產品與外購後再分銷的產品，在毛利率上有何差異？隨著你們可能擴充產能，你們是否預期這個組合占比未來會改變？

Okay. Thanks, Steve. Look, let me start by saying, probably as we look at Brazil, the Northwest or Northeast kind of section of Brazil, as you go towards but not into the Amazon, obviously, it seems to be the area that's growing the fastest. It's growing probably at 10%-plus per year. We have plans to build a hub that would allow us to be more participative in that region. So as that market grows, that's one area where we would expect to expand our distribution business. And then in the areas of production, we've got plans for optimizing our existing operations. We're looking at plans to expand and extend the life of our potash facility down there because we think it's a niche area where it can supply. So there's a number of opportunities we're looking at down there that we think are going to have very quick paybacks and relatively limited capital requirements.

好的。謝謝，Steve。首先我想說，當我們看巴西時，巴西西北或東北那一帶——往亞馬遜方向但不進入亞馬遜——顯然看起來是成長最快的區域，年增速可能超過10%。我們計畫建立一個樞紐（hub），讓我們能更積極參與該地區。隨著市場成長，這是我們預期擴大通路業務的一個方向。至於生產端，我們有計畫優化現有營運；我們也在評估擴建並延長我們在當地的鉀肥設施壽命，因為我們認為那是一個具利基的供應區域。因此，我們在當地看到多項機會，預期回收期很快且資本需求相對有限。

In terms of the margins, clearly, producer margins are better at this type of market than distribution margins. But on the other hand, the benefit of our distribution business is that the margins stay very constant year-on-year. Where we -- what I'll say, though, not to be too explicit about our actual margin split, is that our best margins are seen for things like MicroEssentials, where we pick up the production margin in the U.S. and then both the distribution and retail margin down in Brazil. So those margins are pretty fantastic. And then the other place where the margins are really good is our production B2B business, where we sell it through our own distribution and we capture both of those margins. So -- but overall, I think, our -- right now, our -- 2/3 of our earnings are probably being driven by the production business.

就毛利而言，在這類市場中，生產端的毛利顯然優於通路分銷毛利。但另一方面，我們通路業務的好處是毛利率年復一年非常穩定。不過我想說的是，在不過度明確揭露我們實際毛利結構的前提下，我們最佳的毛利表現出現在像MicroEssentials這類產品：我們在美國取得生產端毛利，並在巴西同時取得分銷與零售端毛利，因此毛利非常出色。另一個毛利很好的地方是我們的生產端B2B業務，我們透過自有通路銷售，能同時取得這兩端的毛利。總體而言，我認為目前大約有2/3的獲利是由生產業務所驅動。

Now we can now take our next question.

我們現在可以進行下一個問題。

It's Joel Jackson from BMO. Just following up on the Brazil margin question and Fertilizantes margin question. Obviously, margins have been all over the place the last bunch of quarters in a rising fertilizer price environment. I mean, how should we see margins there? I'm assuming some of the peak margins we're seeing right now have to go down. You guys see inventory gains. Commodity prices can't stay here forever. So how do you see the next couple of quarters? And then what would be kind of a mid-cycle margin guidance to think about?

我是BMO的Joel Jackson。延續剛才關於巴西毛利與Fertilizantes毛利的問題。顯然，在肥料價格上升的環境下，過去幾個季度毛利波動很大。那邊的毛利你們認為應該怎麼看？我假設目前看到的一些高峰毛利應該會下來。你們也有庫存收益；大宗商品價格不可能永遠維持在這裡。那你們怎麼看接下來幾個季度？另外，中周期（mid-cycle）的毛利指引大概應該怎麼思考？

Well, that's a pretty detailed question here, Joel, and one which I'd be making some pretty big forward-looking statements. Look, I think our -- the one thing to say is where we're expanding mostly has been in our distribution business. Those margins have been pretty stable for a long time. And again, without getting into too many details of exactly where those sit, but I don't think those are going to change mid-cycle a whole lot from where they are today. Obviously, we've had some positioning gains that have helped us. But -- and those come and go a little bit.

Joel，這是一個相當細的問題，而我若回答就會做出一些相當重大的前瞻性陳述。我想說的一點是，我們擴張主要發生在通路業務，而那部分的毛利長期以來相當穩定。同樣地，在不深入太多細節、也不具體說明其水準的情況下，我不認為中周期的毛利會相較於今天有太大改變。當然，我們也有一些部位配置（positioning）帶來的收益幫助我們，但那種收益會有一些來來去去的波動。

But I think our overall strategy of how we buy raw materials, including ammonia -- or sorry, UAN and others for our business, because we buy those fairly carefully, I think we're going to continue being well positioned in that market. In terms of mid-cycle, though, in our original prospectus to buy the business, we talked about a $350 million a year. And I would say between the benefits of our integration and then the benefits of our changes since then, I would argue that we've probably added at least $400 million to that business. And we would be likely -- more likely in the $700 million to $800 million per year range mid-cycle.

但我認為，我們在原料採購上的整體策略——包括氨（ammonia）——抱歉，是UAN以及其他供我們業務使用的原料，因為我們對這些採購相當謹慎——我認為我們會持續在該市場保持良好位置。至於中周期，在我們最初收購該業務的募股說明書（prospectus）中，我們談到每年3.5億美元。我會說，結合我們整合帶來的效益，以及此後我們所做的改變，我認為我們大概至少為該業務增加了4億美元。因此，中周期我們更可能落在每年7億到8億美元的區間。

We can take our next question now.

我們現在可以進行下一個問題。

It's Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Joc, just maybe just give us your latest thoughts on capital allocation. Obviously, the $2 billion buyback, but you did also mention potentially doing special dividends. So maybe you could just layer on how you're thinking about the common dividend from here and what might cause you to do a special dividend and how large it could potentially be?

我是Morgan Stanley的Vincent Andrews。Joc，想請你更新一下你們對資本配置的最新想法。顯然有20億美元的庫藏股回購，但你也提到可能會做特別股利。能否再補充一下你們對普通股股利接下來的思考，以及什麼情況會促使你們發放特別股利、其規模可能會有多大？

Sorry. I guess I got my mic backwards. Thanks, Vincent. Yes. As we think about capital allocation, really, our thoughts on that have been reasonably consistent, which we've made a commitment a long time ago to pay the $550 million down to make the $1 billion of payments. But once that's done, we believe that's done. We've got a very strong balance sheet. We're comfortable. Obviously, we have to do our capital. And that brings us down to the question you're asking, which is how are we going to distribute the rest? And I said just earlier, we expect to give that all back to shareholders. We don't see anything more enticing than our own business right now. So we expect that certainly at these types of share prices and our types of EBITDA-to-enterprise value ratios, we think our shares are very compelling, and we'll continue to buy those.

抱歉，我想我麥克風方向弄反了。謝謝，Vincent。是的，談到資本配置，我們的想法其實一直相當一致：我們很久以前就承諾要把5.5億美元降下來，完成10億美元的付款。但一旦完成，我們就認為那部分就結束了。我們的資產負債表非常強健，我們也很安心。當然，我們必須進行資本支出。接著就回到你問的問題：剩下的部分我們要如何分配？我剛才也提到，我們預期會把這些全部回饋給股東。就目前而言，我們看不到比我們自身業務更具吸引力的投資機會。因此，我們預期在這樣的股價水準，以及我們的EBITDA對企業價值（enterprise value）比率之下，我們認為自家股票非常有吸引力，並會持續回購。

Now if that -- if the price of our shares changes or the business changes, then we may make a decision to move towards some level of special dividends. But recognize that just says that we originally intended to have more of a balance. The special dividend would support or be in favor of the long-term holders who don't intend to sell their shares. So in some respects, I want to serve all of our shareholders. And so that might be something they would like. So that would be the reason for that.

如果我們的股價改變或業務狀況改變，那麼我們可能會決定轉向某種程度的特別股利。但請理解，這只是表示我們原本打算在回購與股利之間取得更平衡。特別股利會支持或偏向那些不打算出售持股的長期持有人。某種程度上，我希望服務所有股東，因此這可能是他們會喜歡的方式；這就是其原因。

In terms of regular dividends, we've made the decision that we would look at the regular dividend basically annually. And so our thought was we would leave that till the end of the year. But look, our share count is lower. Our debt level is lower. So we have less money going out for -- on a total on a dividend basis today than we had a year ago. And obviously, we have less debt repayment to make so -- or less interest payments to make. So I think all of that would go into our dividend increases on our regular dividend plus to make sure that we're paying out what we think is reasonable for the long-term shareholder.

就例行股利而言，我們已決定基本上每年檢視一次例行股利。因此，我們的想法是把這件事留到年底再看。不過你看，我們的流通股數更少了，我們的負債水位也更低了。所以就股利總額來看，我們今天流出的現金比一年前更少。當然，我們需要償還的債務也更少——或者說需要支付的利息也更少。因此，我認為這些因素都會納入我們對例行股利的調升考量，同時也要確保我們支付的水準，對長期股東而言是我們認為合理的。

We can take our next question.

我們可以進行下一個問題。

This is Lucas Beaumont from UBS. I also had a question on Fertilizantes. So I just wanted to talk about the purchased nutrient volumes there. So it was up kind of modestly in the second quarter but down a bit over 10% in the first half from last year. So just given how strong demand has been in Brazil, just wondering if you could sort of tell me why the purchased nutrient volumes there weren't higher and if you could give us your thoughts on how the second half is likely to shape up from a volume perspective?

我是來自瑞銀（UBS）的 Lucas Beaumont。我也有一個關於 Fertilizantes 的問題。我想談談那邊的外購養分（purchased nutrient）銷量。第二季小幅成長，但上半年較去年同期下滑了超過 10%。考量到巴西需求一直很強勁，我想請問為什麼那邊的外購養分銷量沒有更高？以及你們對下半年從銷量角度來看可能會如何發展，有什麼看法？

Sorry. Can you repeat that last bit of that? I missed the...

抱歉，你可以把最後那一段再說一次嗎？我漏聽了……

So just the purchased nutrient volumes in the second half in Fertilizantes, please?

我是說 Fertilizantes 下半年的外購養分銷量，麻煩談一下？

Well, now we've lost you completely. Lucas, are you still there?

嗯，現在我們完全聽不到你了。Lucas，你還在線上嗎？

Yes. I can hear you. Can you guys hear me?

有，我聽得到你們。你們聽得到我嗎？

Okay. We can hear you again. Yes. We lost you completely there. You were breaking up, and then we lost you completely. I apologize profusely, but if you could ask again. I'm sorry, we're struggling with the line, I think.

好，我們又聽得到你了。是的，我們剛剛完全聽不到你。你的聲音斷斷續續，然後就完全沒了。我非常抱歉，但如果你可以再問一次。我很抱歉，我們這條線路好像有點問題。

Probably my accent. The -- so in Fertilizantes, with the purchased nutrient volumes, they were down about 10% year-on-year in the first half. So I was just wondering why it wasn't stronger given how strong Brazil has been and what you're thinking for an outlook in the second half on purchased nutrient volumes.

可能是我的口音。那個——在 Fertilizantes 這邊，外購養分銷量上半年年減大約 10%。所以我想問，考量到巴西表現這麼強，為什麼沒有更強？以及你們對下半年外購養分銷量的展望是什麼？

Yes. Lucas, I think that actually has a fairly simple explanation, which is as we have integrated our B2B business and our B2C business, we've tried to focus on selling our B2B product through our own distribution sales system. And so because of that, that is an intercompany transfer and doesn't count towards -- we don't -- we try not to double count the volumes. So I suspect what you're looking at there is, although purchased nutrient volumes were down, that's because they were replaced by internal volumes from our own B2B business, if you will, or our production business.

是的，Lucas，我想這其實有個相當簡單的解釋：隨著我們把 B2B 業務與 B2C 業務整合，我們一直在聚焦透過自有的通路銷售系統來銷售我們的 B2B 產品。因此，這會變成公司內部移轉（intercompany transfer），不會計入——我們會盡量避免重複計算銷量。所以我猜你看到的是：雖然外購養分銷量下降，但那是因為被我們自有 B2B 業務（或你可以說是我們的生產端業務）的內部供應量所取代。

And our next question now.

接下來我們進行下一個問題。

Joc, the nutrients are supposed to be applied in optimal ratio, something called the Liebig's law of the minimum. So with potash and nitrogen more constrained than phosphate, does that reduce demand for phosphate? Even though phosphate is less constrained, people aren't going to apply as much because they can't get the nitrogen and potash.

Joc，養分理論上應該以最佳比例施用，也就是所謂的李比希最小定律（Liebig's law of the minimum）。那麼在鉀肥和氮肥比磷肥更受限的情況下，是否會降低對磷肥的需求？即使磷肥相對不那麼受限，但因為拿不到氮肥和鉀肥，人們就不會施用那麼多。

Yes. Thanks. Sorry, I didn't pick up the name. Can you repeat your name?

是的，謝謝。抱歉，我沒有聽清楚名字。你可以再說一次你的名字嗎？

Yes, John Roberts from Credit Suisse, sorry.

是的，我是來自瑞信（Credit Suisse）的 John Roberts，抱歉。

Oh, John. Okay, I think I got your question. Yes. So I think there's no question there will be a big deficit in some markets. Particularly like you say, potash will be underutilized in a lot of markets, including Asia, West Africa, Europe, probably, et cetera. And likewise, so will nitrogen. I don't know if that would stop people from using or make people use less phosphate. I suspect you would still try to use the right amount of the fertilizers. I know that, obviously, the optimum ratio is best, but I guess it's like vitamins. Not having enough vitamin D wouldn't mean you wouldn't want to have enough vitamin C, if you will.

喔，John。好，我想我理解你的問題。是的，我認為毫無疑問某些市場會出現很大的缺口。特別是如你所說，鉀肥在許多市場會供應不足，包括亞洲、西非、歐洲，可能等等。同樣地，氮肥也是。我不確定這是否會讓人們停止使用或減少使用磷肥。我猜大家仍會努力施用適當量的肥料。我知道最佳比例當然最好，但我想這有點像維他命：缺乏維他命 D，並不代表你就不想攝取足夠的維他命 C。

So it's probably beyond my agronomic understanding to know if that would have a thing. But we're not looking at any kind of restricted sales because of others. The one thing I will acknowledge on that, though, is if the price of nitrogen gets so high that it takes up a lot of the budget, that has historically been a problem for the other nutrients in countries like India, where they tend to overapply nitrogen. And if it takes up a disproportionate amount of their budget, they could restrict other uses.

所以這可能超出我在農藝方面的理解，無法判斷是否會產生那樣的影響。但我們並沒有因為其他肥種受限而預期會出現任何受限銷售。不過我會承認一點：如果氮肥價格高到占用大量預算，歷史上這確實會對其他養分造成問題，例如在印度這類國家，他們往往會過量施用氮肥；如果氮肥占了不成比例的預算，他們可能就會限制其他養分的使用。

We'll now take our next question.

我們現在進行下一個問題。

It's Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Joc, I was hoping to maybe come back to the phosphate business a little bit. And I know you talked a bit earlier about kind of the volumes improving in the back half. But more holistically, just what would it take for you -- the operating rates in your U.S. phosphate business to get back over 85%? They haven't been there in some time. Just trying to -- is it just demand? Is it logistics issues in Florida? I'm just trying to get a sense of -- it seems like there's a lot of under-absorbed overhead and idled and turnaround costs that you're absorbing here that are maybe leading to cost and margins not as robust as they could be.

我是高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson。Joc，我想或許再回到磷肥業務談一下。我知道你先前提到下半年銷量會改善。但更全面地看，你們美國磷肥業務的開工率要回到 85% 以上，需要什麼條件？你們有一段時間沒有達到那個水準了。我想了解——是單純需求問題嗎？還是佛羅里達的物流問題？我想掌握一下——看起來你們承擔了不少未吸收的固定成本，以及閒置與歲修成本，可能導致成本與毛利率沒有原本可以那麼強勁。

Yes. Thanks, Adam. Look, I saw that you had asked that question in your pre-stuff, and I was thinking about it a little bit. If I look back the last couple of years, we've had a freeze in Texas that restricted sulfur use, which actually restricted our ability to run. We had Hurricane Ida, which knocked out power in Louisiana for, I think, 3 or 4 weeks, et cetera. And if I look at -- and then first quarter of this year -- so we went into the first quarter this year with low inventory in phosphates. Then we had rail restrictions -- unbelievable rail restrictions. And so while we've built up inventory, it's been very difficult to move the product and hard to -- we've been low on sulfur. Now we're high on sulfur, but it's our turnaround quarter come that we've just gone through.

是的，謝謝你，Adam。你在會前資料裡問到這個問題時我就看到了，我也稍微想了一下。回顧過去幾年，我們遇到德州寒潮，限制了硫磺的使用，進而限制了我們的運轉能力。我們也遇到艾達颶風（Hurricane Ida），把路易斯安那的電力打掉了，我記得大概 3 到 4 週，等等。如果我再看——然後是今年第一季——我們在今年第一季進入時，磷肥庫存偏低。接著又遇到鐵路限制——難以置信的鐵路限制。因此，雖然我們已經把庫存建立起來，但產品很難運出去，也很難——我們一度硫磺不足。現在硫磺又偏高，但我們剛好又進入並完成了歲修季度。

And so now as we get there, I am hoping that there's no external factors that continue to push against our Southern U.S. location, if you will, and that should be what it takes to get us back to normal. There hasn't been any big internal things that have slowed us down. It's been more of this damage from the hurricane, damage from the ice storms and then -- or not damage, sorry, restrictions from the ice storms, logistics. And actually earlier, at the start of the 18, 24 months you've talked about, actually constrained because of inventory. So we had to shut down plants. But we are looking to more normal as we go forward.

所以接下來當我們往前走時，我希望不會再有外部因素持續對我們美國南部的據點造成掣肘；如果沒有，這應該就是讓我們回到正常所需要的條件。內部並沒有什麼重大因素拖慢我們，更多是颶風造成的影響、冰風暴造成的影響——或更正，不是損害，抱歉，是冰風暴帶來的限制，以及物流問題。其實在你提到的那 18 到 24 個月期間更早的時候，還因為庫存受限而受影響，所以我們不得不關停工廠。但我們正期待未來能回到更正常的狀態。

We'll take our next question now.

我們現在進行下一個問題。

This is Michael Piken from Cleveland Research. And just wanted to talk a little bit about Ma'aden and your investment there and when we might see the trajectory of profitability increase. Are there any issues with getting ammonia there? And just overall your outlook for ammonia costs across the business in light of some of the European and Asian curtailments?

我是 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken。我想談一下 Ma'aden 以及你們在那邊的投資，還有我們何時可能看到獲利能力提升的軌跡。那邊在取得氨方面有任何問題嗎？另外，考量歐洲與亞洲的一些減產，你們對整體業務的氨成本展望如何？

Yes. Thanks, Michael. In terms of Ma'aden, our second quarter equity earnings were about $34 million. Sales attributed to the business was 413,000 tonnes. So while not quite up to what it is ultimately going to hit, it's actually making a positive contribution to us, which is good; and helping us supply our Indian customers, which is also a good thing. We want to see that going to our customers around the world. So overall, I mean, they continue to have a ramp-up plan. It's certainly been slower than we would have loved to see, but that is what it is.

是的，謝謝你，Michael。就 Ma'aden 而言，我們第二季的權益法收益約為 3,400 萬美元。歸屬於該業務的銷量為 413,000 公噸。因此，雖然還沒有完全達到最終會達到的水準，但它確實已對我們做出正向貢獻，這很好；同時也幫助我們供應印度客戶，這也是好事。我們希望看到這些產品能供應到全球各地的客戶。總體而言，他們仍在持續推進爬坡計畫。確實比我們希望看到的速度更慢，但現況就是如此。

Having said all that, though, Ma'aden continues -- in this market, particularly, Ma'aden continues to be highly advantaged with natural gas price and they're paying in the Kingdom of the [$1 per MMBtu] that represents an unbelievable sort of structural advantage to that operation. And then the other one is a very low sulfur cost. So one would expect that Ma'aden right now would have a very low actual cost per tonne compared to the rest of the world and probably is now taking its place as the low-cost producer.

不過，話雖如此，Ma’aden 仍然——尤其在目前這個市場——Ma’aden 仍然在天然氣價格方面具備非常顯著的優勢，他們在沙烏地王國支付的價格約為每 MMBtu 1 美元，這對該項營運而言代表著難以置信的結構性優勢。另一個因素是極低的硫成本。因此可以預期，Ma’aden 目前相較於世界其他地區，每噸的實際成本會非常低，並且很可能正在確立其低成本生產商的地位。

In terms of ammonia availability, our ammonia availability, I think, that was the second part of your question, has been actually unrestricted. We have basically 2/3 to 75% produced between ourselves and our contract with CF and then the rest that we're buying on the open market, which we have long-term agreements and contracts that tend to make that work quite well. And I think if I look back to it, our price for ammonia was in the high-$500 range compared to a $1,200-plus on the market. So we're not only getting the ammonia we need, but we're getting it at a very advantaged price.

就氨的供應可得性而言——我想那是你問題的第二部分——我們的氨供應其實一直沒有受到限制。我們基本上有 2/3 到 75% 是由我們自己以及與 CF 的合約所生產，其餘則是在公開市場採購；而我們有長期協議與合約，通常能讓這件事運作得相當順利。回頭看，我們的氨採購價格大約在 500 多美元的高檔區間，相較之下市場價格是 1,200 美元以上。所以我們不僅取得所需的氨，而且是以非常有利的價格取得。

We can now take our next question.

我們現在可以進行下一個提問。

Andrew Wong from RBC. So a similar question to Adam's but on Fertilizantes phosphate production. I recall that business was impacted by some extended turnarounds last year, but it looks like in Q2, production was down versus Q1. And are there still any constraints in that part of the business? And are we setting up for a Q3 seasonal strength, which is typically what happened in Brazil? And then just one follow-up on some of the corporate line items. There was a negative charge there in Q2. Can you talk about that? Was it mostly intersegment sales? And does that reverse in subsequent quarters?

我是 RBC 的 Andrew Wong。我的問題和 Adam 的類似，但聚焦在 Fertilizantes 的磷酸鹽產量。我記得去年該業務受到一些延長歲修的影響，但看起來在第二季，產量較第一季下降。那麼該業務目前是否仍有任何限制？以及我們是否正為第三季的季節性走強做準備——這通常是在巴西會發生的情況？另外再追問一個關於公司層級的一些科目：第二季那裡出現了一筆負的費用（negative charge）。你能談談那是什麼嗎？主要是部門間銷售（intersegment sales）嗎？而且在後續季度會回轉嗎？

I'll leave that one to Clint -- the last piece to Clint, but I might -- you might need to specify a little more which one you're talking about. But let's talk about phosphate production in Brazil. I think Brazil, probably more than anywhere, we've got out of sync with our turnarounds and some of our maintenance because of COVID. And again, these things take time to play out. But we had to delay and minimize a number of turnarounds and particularly the plants that were impacted the most were probably our [São] plant, where we had a couple of failures of equipment that was -- we had the parts sitting there, but because of restrictions that the communities put on us and others, we put off the shutdown too. I think it was supposed to be the third quarter of this year. And then we've had breakdowns of that equipment.

最後那一部分我先交給 Clint——不過我可能——你可能需要更具體說明你指的是哪一項。但先談巴西的磷酸鹽產量。我認為巴西可能比其他任何地方都更因為 COVID 而使我們的歲修與部分維護工作不同步。再說一次，這些事情需要時間才能消化。我們不得不延後並縮減多項歲修，尤其受影響最大的工廠大概是我們的 [São] 廠；那裡有幾次設備故障——我們其實零件都已備妥，但因為社區對我們及其他人的限制，我們也把停機延後了。我記得原本應該是在今年第三季。之後那套設備又發生故障。

And in Tapira, we had a couple of issues with respect to the conveying systems and stuff. And it's just been harder to get them fixed and longer to get them fixed, particularly in Brazil. And so there's been a bit of a hangover there in Brazil from that. But again, we look like we're all ready for a strong third quarter. And like you say, that's when we're going to need the production to meet market demands that are out in that country.

在 Tapira，我們在輸送系統等方面也遇到幾個問題。而且要把它們修好變得更困難、修復時間也更長，特別是在巴西。因此巴西那邊有一些後遺症。不過，我們看起來已經準備好迎接強勁的第三季。正如你所說，那也是我們需要產量來滿足該國市場需求的時點。

And Andrew, this is Clint. I think to the second part of your question about what you're seeing in the corporate segment. I think the driver of that is intercompany sales. It's profit and inventory, and that typically happens when one business unit makes sales to another business unit, but the final tonnes haven't gone to a third party yet. And we had about 300,000 tonnes move -- in June move from phosphates down to Fertilizantes. And so I think that's what you're seeing in the corporate segment. We do that so that as the results of the individual segments come together for the consolidated number, we need that offset to get all the numbers right. So I think what you're seeing is an internal shipment that occurred in June. And again, that should clear out as Fertilizantes makes that sale.

Andrew，我是 Clint。關於你第二部分的問題，也就是你在公司（corporate）部門看到的情況，我認為驅動因素是公司內部銷售（intercompany sales）。那是利潤與存貨的調整，通常發生在某個事業單位賣給另一個事業單位，但最終的噸數尚未對第三方出售的時候。我們在 6 月大約有 30 萬噸從磷酸鹽業務移轉——在 6 月從磷酸鹽移到 Fertilizantes。因此我想你在公司部門看到的就是這個。我們這麼做是因為當各個分部的結果彙總成合併數字時，需要這個抵銷項來讓所有數字正確。所以我認為你看到的是 6 月發生的一筆內部出貨；而且當 Fertilizantes 把那批貨賣出去後，這個項目就會消掉。

And we can now take our next question.

我們現在可以進行下一個提問。

This is Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan. Two questions. I didn't fully understand your phosphate price guidance for the third quarter. You gave an explicit number for potash. And secondly, in your cash flows from financing activities, if you exclude what you did in terms of debt paydown and share repurchase and dividends, you had a negative $672 million outflow. And the number isn't as negative for the year. But I was wondering, when you net out all of those numbers for 2022, what should they be? And why aren't those numbers in cash flow from operations? So I guess those are the 2 questions.

我是摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。有兩個問題。我沒有完全理解你們對第三季磷酸鹽價格的指引。你們對鉀肥給了一個明確的數字。第二，在你們的籌資活動現金流（cash flows from financing activities）中，如果排除你們做的償還債務、庫藏股回購與股利，你們有一筆負的 6.72 億美元流出。這個數字在全年看起來沒有那麼負。但我想問的是，當你把 2022 年所有那些數字淨額化之後，應該會是多少？以及為什麼那些數字不在營運活動現金流（cash flow from operations）裡？我想這就是兩個問題。

Okay. Thanks, Vincent, I'm -- or sorry, Jeff. Sorry, Jeff. I'm one name off. Jeff, I'm going to let Clint give the first one as he's still trying to figure out what exactly you're -- no, he's ready. I'm going to get -- let Clint and then I'm going to come back and talk to you about the price forecast for phosphates.

好的。謝謝，Vincent，我——喔抱歉，Jeff。抱歉，Jeff，我把名字叫錯了一個。Jeff，我先讓 Clint 回答第一個，因為他還在釐清你到底——不，他已經準備好了。我先請 Clint，然後我再回來跟你談磷酸鹽的價格預測。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, Jeff, I think what you're seeing are some of the entries associated with some of the short-term financings that we have. We have not only inventory financing facilities that we use seasonally to finance some of our working capital, but I think some of the other entries that you may be seeing are related to some of the account receivable securitization facilities. And those are some of our working capital funding mechanisms that we use, again, through the seasons.

是的，Jeff，我認為你看到的是一些與我們短期融資相關的入帳。我們不僅有存貨融資額度（inventory financing facilities），會依季節性用來融通部分營運資金；我想你可能看到的其他一些入帳，則與應收帳款證券化額度（account receivable securitization facilities）有關。這些都是我們用來支應營運資金的融資機制，同樣也是隨季節運用。

And one of the things, in particular, in the second quarter, is as we look at the increase in customer prepayments, particularly down in Brazil, year-to-date, as I mentioned a little bit earlier, year-to-date, that's up about $830 million. And when we look at that, that is a source of working capital financing to us. And so as that cash comes in -- and that typically lands in your cash from operations line. We use that cash to actually replace other sources of working capital financing, like our inventory financing and our AR financing. And so as we use that basically cost -- the interest-free working capital financing from customer prepays to pay off some of those lines that were drawn earlier in the year, what you'll see is a disconnect because the prepayments are in cash from operations.

另外，特別是在第二季，有一件事是：當我們看到客戶預收款（customer prepayments）的增加，尤其是在巴西那邊，年初至今——如我稍早提到——年初至今增加了約 8.30 億美元。當我們看這件事時，這對我們而言是一種營運資金融資來源。因此當這些現金流入——而且通常會落在營運活動現金流那一行——我們會用這些現金去替代其他營運資金融資來源，例如存貨融資與應收帳款（AR）融資。所以當我們用這種基本上「零利息」的客戶預收款營運資金融資，去償還年初較早時點動用的那些額度時，你會看到一種不一致，因為預收款是在營運活動現金流裡。

Paying down some of those short-term lines are down in financing. And so what you'll see also though in the back half of the year, as those prepayments reverse out, I think you'll probably start to see a draw up of some of those lines and probably see a reversal of what you're seeing through the second quarter. So happy to spend some more time with you and go through that in more detail offline. But I think that's what you're seeing is some of the -- replacing external third-party financing with customer prepays as those dollars come in and that I would expect kind of those dynamics to reverse out in the back half of the year.

而償還那些短期額度則是在籌資活動裡。因此你也會在下半年看到：隨著那些預收款回轉，我想你可能會開始看到重新動用部分額度，並且大概會看到你在第二季所看到情況的反向變化。我也很樂意之後再花些時間，離線和你更詳細地走一遍。但我認為你看到的就是：隨著這些資金流入，我們用客戶預收款來取代外部第三方融資，而我預期這些動態會在下半年回轉。

Okay. So Jeff, let me talk a little bit about the phosphate price forecast. And we didn't mean to confuse in any way. I think the challenge is, again, same thing. It depends a little bit on when sales come in. And at this stage, I think we're only about 25% sold and priced for the quarter. So pretty early in the piece in terms of what we expect.

好的。Jeff，我來稍微談一下磷酸鹽價格預測。我們無意造成任何混淆。我認為挑戰在於——同樣的情況——它有點取決於銷售在什麼時點進來。以目前這個階段來看，我們本季大概只有約 25% 已經售出並完成定價，所以就我們的預期而言，還算是相當早期。

So I guess the way you could look at it is prices have retreated from where we were in the second quarter slightly and moderated. And I think we're now at a stable range. So you can almost look at today's price. If you take the cost of freight from today's published price, you'd be pretty close to where we're -- what we're going to see for the quarter. So I think that would be the easiest way to look at it. Certainly, I think pricing has come down a bit from quarter 2, moderated a little bit, but we expect it to stabilize about where we are and probably stay at about where spot is right now for the quarter.

所以我想你可以這樣看：價格相較第二季的水準略有回落並趨於溫和，而我認為我們現在處於一個穩定區間。你幾乎可以直接看今天的價格：如果你從今天公布的價格中扣除運費成本，你就會非常接近我們——也就是本季將會看到的水準。我認為這會是最簡單的看法。當然，我認為定價確實比第二季低了一些、溫和了一點，但我們預期它會在目前附近趨於穩定，並且本季大概會維持在現在的現貨（spot）水準左右。

(Operator Instructions) We can take our next question.

（接線員指示）我們可以進行下一個提問。

It's Chris Parkinson from Mizuho. Just a quick question, just given the outlook for cash flow and certainly appreciate all of your comments about returning to shareholders. But just a quick question outside of some of the modest growth CapEx you're planning. Are there any other meaningful projects at Faustina, Uncle Sam or anywhere that you're currently assessing to further improve reliability or things you've been kind of looking at for years that are now of interest? Or should we just stick with the buyback and the potential for special dividends?

我是來自瑞穗（Mizuho）的 Chris Parkinson。簡單問一個問題：考量現金流的展望，也非常感謝你們對回饋股東的所有評論。不過想再追問一下，除了你們規劃中的一些溫和成長型資本支出（CapEx）之外，在 Faustina、Uncle Sam 或其他地方，是否還有任何你們目前正在評估、能夠進一步提升可靠性的重要專案？或是一些你們多年來一直在看、現在又重新引起興趣的事項？還是我們就應該把重點放在庫藏股回購以及特別股利的可能性上？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. Certainly, we're making sure in this stage that we're looking at those reliability projects. I mean, I think we just put in a new reformer in Louisiana for the ammonia plant. Those over time will make a big difference in terms of the reliability, capacity of that plant. We mentioned in Colonsay we're going to start up the second mill, which has been idled for a couple of years. But these are all $50 million projects. I think in potash, we've got a -- well, as part of our K3 -- the final part of our K3, we'll be building a -- finishing off a compaction unit for that plant, which aligns the production with the needs for compacted product.

是的，謝謝你，Chris。當然，在這個階段我們確保會檢視那些可靠性專案。我的意思是，我想我們剛在路易斯安那的氨工廠裝了一台新的重整爐（reformer）。這些專案隨著時間推進，將在該工廠的可靠性與產能方面帶來很大的差異。我們也提到在 Colonsay，我們將啟動第二座磨機（mill），它已停用好幾年了。但這些都是 5,000 萬美元等級的專案。我想在鉀肥（potash）方面，作為我們 K3 的一部分——K3 的最後一部分——我們將建造——完成該工廠的一套造粒壓實（compaction）單元，使產量與對壓實產品的需求相匹配。

But beyond that -- so that's sort of where our needs have stayed basically constant despite the K3 number coming down is because we are taking the opportunity to do some of these high-return projects, particularly when at these kind of margins the payback is so short. So whether you look at the CTV project where we're going to extend the life of the -- or intending to extend the life and increase the production of our potash unit down there or increasing production at Colonsay, improving reliability at Louisiana, all of those things we're doing, but we expect with these prices they'll have a very good payback, and it doesn't compromise our intention to give back 100% of what remains to the shareholders.

但除此之外——所以這大致就是為什麼即使 K3 的數字下修，我們的需求仍基本保持不變，因為我們正把握機會做一些高報酬專案，特別是在這種利潤率水準下，回收期非常短。因此，不論你看 CTV 專案（我們將延長——或計畫延長——並提高我們在那裡的鉀肥裝置的產量），或是在 Colonsay 提高產量、在路易斯安那提升可靠性，這些事情我們都在做；而且我們預期在目前的價格下，它們會有非常好的回收表現，同時也不會影響我們把剩餘的 100% 回饋給股東的意圖。

We can take our next question.

我們可以進行下一個提問。

It's Joel from BMO again. Maybe a bit of a tricky sensitive question, but I found interesting with the UAN duties investigation the other week, indicating that there wasn't any damage to the U.S. in UAN industry from subsidized Russian gas. But that wasn't what the determination was in your own DAP/MAP phosphate case. Could there be any future ramifications on your own phosphate duty situation in the States from that?

我是 BMO 的 Joel，再次提問。也許這是一個有點棘手、敏感的問題，但我覺得很有意思：前陣子 UAN 關稅調查的結論顯示，補貼的俄羅斯天然氣並未對美國 UAN 產業造成損害。但這與你們在 DAP/MAP 磷酸鹽案件中的裁定並不相同。這是否可能對你們在美國的磷酸鹽關稅情況帶來任何未來影響？

Well, yes, thanks, Joel. We have definitely looked at that. We have had a -- the -- have had a second hearing or another hearing from the -- a judge on this case. And we'll probably know in a month or so if he will refer that back to the ITC. But one has to look at this from the perspective of what are the difference. So the appeal has gone to the U.S. Court of International Trade, and then that goes back to the International Trade Commission to say was their original ruling -- was there any -- they have to have an actual error in the ruling or something like that. And so they might refer back to the ITC to look. We actually think that the ruling in ours was fairly substantive, and there's not that much question that the -- there was damage to our industry.

嗯，是的，謝謝你，Joel。我們確實已經研究過這件事。我們在這個案件上已經有——法官又開了一次聽證會或另一場聽證會。我們大概在一個月左右就會知道他是否會把案件發回 ITC（美國國際貿易委員會）。但必須從差異的角度來看這件事。上訴已提交至美國國際貿易法院（U.S. Court of International Trade），接著可能再回到國際貿易委員會，去判斷其原始裁定——是否存在任何——他們必須在裁定中有實際錯誤或類似情況。因此，他們可能會把案件發回 ITC 重新檢視。我們其實認為我們案件中的裁定相當有實質基礎，而且幾乎沒有太多疑問：我們的產業確實受到了損害。

So from our perspective, we still think there's not too much risk in that -- in the whole thing. And we'll have to see, but our expectation that might get referred back to the ITC in the next 2 to 4 months, let's say. And then from what I've understood is the ITC takes quite a while to even look at that. So we won't really know any more on that for a number of months. But our belief is that the facts of each case is quite different. The timing is also quite different. If you remember, we were in 2019, which was very, very -- they pushed the phosphate industry to the brink of negative margins. So a very different case, if you will. So we're quite confident.

所以從我們的角度來看，我們仍然認為在那——整件事上風險不大。我們還得再觀察，但我們的預期是，可能在接下來 2 到 4 個月內會發回 ITC。然後據我了解，ITC 即使要開始審視也需要相當長的時間。所以我們在好幾個月內都不會知道更多進展。但我們相信每個案件的事實基礎差異很大，時點也很不同。你如果記得，我們是在 2019 年，那時候非常、非常——把磷酸鹽產業推到接近負利潤的邊緣。所以這是非常不同的案件。因此我們相當有信心。

There are no further questions. I would like to turn the call back to Joc O’Rourke for closing remarks.

目前沒有進一步的問題。我想把電話交回給 Joc O’Rourke 作結語。

Okay. Thank you, folks. I know it's been a long couple of hours of listening to companies for you, analysts. So I appreciate your time and your attention. To conclude our call, I'd just like to reiterate just a couple of quick messages. First of all, we delivered excellent results in the second quarter, and we expect these strong business conditions to continue well into 2023. We remain committed to meeting our customers' needs and meeting our mission of helping the world grow the food it needs. And at the same time, we think we can do that and be a great provider for our shareholders and return significant capital to our shareholders even as we invest in our business and continue to strengthen our balance sheet.

好的。謝謝各位。我知道對你們分析師而言，這幾個小時聽各家公司發言是很長的一段時間。所以我感謝你們的時間與專注。為了結束我們的電話會議，我想再重申幾個簡短重點。首先，我們在第二季交出了非常出色的成果，而且我們預期這些強勁的經營環境將一路延續到 2023 年。我們仍致力於滿足客戶需求，並實現我們的使命——協助世界種出所需的糧食。同時，我們也認為，在投資業務並持續強化資產負債表的同時，我們也能成為股東的優質標的，並向股東回饋可觀的資本。

So with that, thank you for joining our call, and have a great safe day.

那麼，感謝各位參加我們的電話會議，祝各位有個美好且平安的一天。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。