美盛公司 (MOS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to The Mosaic Company's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded. Your host for today's call is Paul Massoud. Mr. Massoud, you may begin.

早安，歡迎參加美國美盛公司（The Mosaic Company）2023 年第三季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今日活動將被錄音。今日會議主持人為 Paul Massoud。Massoud 先生，您可以開始。

Thank you, and welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by James O'Rourke, Chief Executive Officer; followed by a fireside chat and then open Q&A. Bruce Bodine, President. Clint Freeland, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Jenny Wang, Senior Vice President, Global Strategic Marketing will also be available to answer your questions.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。開場致詞將由執行長 James O'Rourke 提供；接著是爐邊談話，然後進入開放式問答。總裁 Bruce Bodine、執行副總裁兼財務長 Clint Freeland，以及全球策略行銷資深副總裁 Jenny Wang 也將在場回答各位的問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published yesterday and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

我們將在本次電話會議中發表前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括但不限於對未來財務與營運結果的陳述。其係基於管理層截至今日的信念與預期，並受重大風險與不確定性影響。實際結果可能與預測結果存在重大差異。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異的因素，已載於我們昨日發布的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告中。我們也將呈現若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。我們的新聞稿與績效資料亦包含關於這些非 GAAP 指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to JOC.

現在我想把電話交給 JOC。

Good morning. Thank you for joining our third quarter 2023 earnings call. Before we get to the normal part of our call, I'd like to take a moment to discuss the next step forward for our company. Last month, we announced that I plan to retire at the end of the year. It has been an honor to work at this outstanding organization and lead this incredibly talented team. We've accomplished a tremendous amount over the last 8 years, but one of the areas I take most pride in is our focus on identifying talent and developing the next generation of leaders. As a result of those efforts, Mosaic's Board of Directors appointed Bruce Bodine President and selected him to be Mosaic's next CEO starting on January 1, 2024.

早安。感謝各位參加我們 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。在進入例行議程之前，我想先花一點時間談談公司下一步的發展。上個月，我們宣布我計畫在年底退休。能在這個卓越的組織工作並帶領這支極具才華的團隊，是我的榮幸。過去 8 年我們完成了許多成果，但我最引以為傲的其中一項，是我們專注於辨識人才並培育下一代領導者。基於這些努力，美盛董事會任命 Bruce Bodine 擔任總裁，並選定他自 2024 年 1 月 1 日起出任美盛下一任執行長。

Bruce is a Mosaic veteran, who's been with the company for 24 years and led several functions across our business, including most recently as Senior Vice President of North America. As a member of Mosaic's senior leadership team for the last 8 years, he's played a major role in establishing our current strategic priorities. The board takes succession seriously and has been planning for my retirement for some time. Bruce's selection follows an exhaustive evaluation of both internal and external candidates. Bruce's broad experience, strategic mindset and leadership throughout the organization, makes him the ideal person to lead Mosaic into the future. Please join me in congratulating Bruce.

Bruce 是美盛的資深同仁，已在公司服務 24 年，並在我們的業務中領導過多個職能，最近則擔任北美資深副總裁。過去 8 年作為美盛高階領導團隊的一員，他在建立我們目前的策略優先事項方面扮演了重要角色。董事會非常重視接班規劃，並已為我的退休籌劃一段時間。Bruce 的遴選是在對內部與外部候選人進行全面評估後做出的決定。Bruce 廣泛的經驗、策略思維，以及在整個組織中的領導力，使他成為帶領美盛邁向未來的理想人選。也請各位與我一同恭喜 Bruce。

Thank you, JOC. I'm excited to take the next step in January as CEO, and I'd like to take a moment to lay out my vision for the future. Mosaic is a global leader in the fertilizer industry. Over the last few years, we have grown our footprint in the world's most important agricultural regions, expanded our portfolio of value-added specialty fertilizers and built one of the world's most efficient potash production complexes. These investments were being made while we were reducing long-term debt by $1 billion and repurchasing 15% of our outstanding shares.

謝謝你，JOC。我很期待在一月接任執行長，並想花點時間說明我對未來的願景。美盛是肥料產業的全球領導者。過去幾年，我們在全球最重要的農業區域擴大布局，擴充高附加價值的特用肥產品組合，並打造全球最高效率之一的鉀肥生產基地。進行這些投資的同時，我們也將長期負債降低了 10 億美元，並回購了已發行在外股份的 15%。

Looking ahead, we will continue creating value for our shareholders. With the expansion of MicroEssentials capacity at Riverview and the investments we've made in Mosaic Biosciences, we're pushing further into non-commodity value-add ag products. We're also continuing to explore entering the purified phosphoric acid market for lithium iron phosphate battery production. We're engaged in discussions with auto and battery manufacturers and our Board has already approved engineering work on a commercial plant.

展望未來，我們將持續為股東創造價值。透過在 Riverview 擴增 MicroEssentials 產能，以及我們在 Mosaic Biosciences 的投資，我們正進一步切入非大宗商品、具附加價值的農業產品。我們也持續評估進入用於磷酸鐵鋰（LFP）電池生產的高純度磷酸市場。我們正與汽車與電池製造商進行討論，董事會也已核准商業化工廠的工程設計工作。

In Brazil, Mosaic is already the country's largest supplier of fertilizer, and we're expanding our footprint even further with a 1 million-ton distribution facility at Palm Meranti in the fast-growing northern region in Brazil. In potash, we're further optimizing our Esterhazy facility by debottlenecking the mills and adding 400,000 tonnes of very low-cost production. Across our business, we are pursuing cost reduction initiatives. Operational improvements and our global digital acceleration program are expected to drive significant savings throughout the enterprise of at least $150 million, which you'll be able to see in our segment results in SG&A. These are all modest investments with very high returns, which means we expect 2023 to be a high watermark for capital spending.

在巴西，美盛已是該國最大的肥料供應商；我們也將在巴西北部快速成長地區的 Palm Meranti 建置一座 100 萬噸的配送設施，以進一步擴大布局。在鉀肥方面，我們將透過解除產能瓶頸（debottlenecking）磨礦設備並新增 40 萬噸極低成本產量，進一步優化 Esterhazy 廠。整體而言，我們正推動成本降低計畫。營運改善與全球數位加速計畫預期將在全企業帶來至少 1.5 億美元的顯著節省，這些成效將可在我們各事業部門的 SG&A 結果中看到。這些都是投入不大但報酬極高的投資，因此我們預期 2023 年將是資本支出高峰年。

Next year, we expect total CapEx to be down by up to $200 million from 2023. This will allow us to continue returning all excess cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We believe our shares present very compelling value. I look forward to continuing this dialogue with all of you. But for now, I'll hand it back to JOC for his final discussion on broader markets and our results.

明年，我們預期總資本支出（CapEx）將較 2023 年最多減少 2 億美元。這將使我們能持續透過股票回購與股利，把所有超額現金回饋給股東。我們認為公司股票具備非常吸引人的價值。我期待與各位持續交流。不過現在，我先把時間交回給 JOC，請他做最後的分享，談更廣泛的市場與我們的業績表現。

Thank you, Bruce. Today's agriculture market is tight. Food security is a major concern around the world, but crop production is constrained. Global stock-to-use ratios for grain and oilseeds remains near historic lows which highlights the crop supply is struggling to keep up with demand. Weather conditions around the world, particularly in developing markets, have impaired production. Today, El Nino weather patterns are having an impact across Southeast Asia and Australia. The situation is being exacerbated by persistent under fertilization. Over the last 2 years, we've begun to see a significant relationship between insufficient nutrient consumption and disappointing yields. And of course, key growing regions are being impacted by geopolitical flare-ups and all-out war, as is the case with the war in Ukraine.

謝謝你，Bruce。當前農業市場供給吃緊。全球對糧食安全的關切升高，但作物生產受到限制。穀物與油籽的全球庫存使用比仍接近歷史低點，凸顯作物供給難以跟上需求。全球各地的天候狀況，特別是在開發中市場，已影響產量。目前，聖嬰（El Nino）氣候型態正對東南亞與澳洲造成影響。此情況又因長期施肥不足而加劇。過去兩年，我們開始看到養分攝取不足與產量不如預期之間存在顯著關聯。當然，主要種植區也受到地緣政治衝突與全面戰爭的影響，例如烏克蘭戰爭。

Over the last 2 years, Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports are down 32% from pre-invasion levels. It's difficult to see how other regions will be able to offset the shortfall, given poor weather and reduced fertilizer applications.

過去兩年，烏克蘭的穀物與油籽出口量較入侵前水準下降 32%。在天候不佳與施肥量降低的情況下，很難看出其他地區如何能彌補這個缺口。

Despite reduced production levels, demand around the world remains strong. China's import of soybeans, beef and wheat are at record levels. India, which accounts for nearly 40% of global rice trade, has a limited ban on non-basmati white rice exports and places duty on a portion of its remaining rice sales in order to ensure adequate domestic supply. Additionally, we're now seeing emerging demand from renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel. In the U.S., biofuels represent 1/4 of soybean consumption. These dynamics mean elevated crop prices could persist through 2024 and beyond, and growers will walk to maximize yields.

儘管產量下降，全球需求仍然強勁。中國對大豆、牛肉與小麥的進口量創下新高。印度占全球稻米貿易近 40%，為確保國內供應充足，對非巴斯馬蒂白米出口實施有限禁令，並對其餘部分稻米銷售加徵關稅。此外，我們也看到來自再生柴油與永續航空燃料的新興需求。在美國，生質燃料約占大豆消費量的四分之一。這些動態意味著高檔作物價格可能延續至 2024 年及以後，而種植者將致力於最大化產量。

This brings us to the fertilizer market. Supply of potash and phosphates is being impacted by sanctions, weather disruptions and evolving producer behavior. In potash, sanctions and other disruptions continue to limit exports from the former Soviet Union. Belarus remains locked from port access in Lithuania, forcing it to find other outlets for its shipments. Some of those exports have shipped via ports in Russia or by rail into China, though total shipments remain well below pre-sanctioned levels of 12 million tonnes. This year, we expect Belarus exports to be in the range of 8 million to 8.5 million tonnes, and we expect limited increases from that range in 2024.

接著談到肥料市場。鉀肥與磷肥的供給正受到制裁、天候干擾以及生產商行為變化的影響。在鉀肥方面，制裁與其他干擾持續限制前蘇聯地區的出口。白俄羅斯仍無法使用立陶宛港口，迫使其為出貨尋找其他管道。部分出口改由俄羅斯港口出運或以鐵路運往中國，但總出貨量仍遠低於制裁前的 1,200 萬噸水準。今年我們預期白俄羅斯出口約在 800 萬至 850 萬噸之間，並預期 2024 年在此區間之上僅有有限增幅。

In Canada, labor strikes, rail congestion and terminal repairs have limited the West's ability to mitigate lost FSU tonnes. More recently, the conflict in the Middle East, in addition to the ongoing war in Ukraine, highlight the risk of further supply disruptions. In total, global potash shipments are expected to be in the range of 64 million to 65 million tonnes, simply because the supply isn't there to meet additional demand particularly in developing markets where crop supply is primarily made up of subsistence farming.

在加拿大，勞工罷工、鐵路壅塞與碼頭維修限制了西方國家彌補前蘇聯地區減少噸數的能力。近期，中東衝突加上烏克蘭戰爭仍在持續，凸顯供給進一步中斷的風險。整體而言，全球鉀肥出貨量預期約為 6,400 萬至 6,500 萬噸，原因很單純：供給不足以滿足額外需求，尤其是在開發中市場，那裡的作物供給主要來自自給農業。

In phosphates, over the last decade, China grew to be the largest exporter of finished phosphate fertilizers, supplying about 30% of the seaborne market in 2021. But over the last 18 months, export restrictions and a shift of production away from agriculture to industrial markets, has significantly reduced phosphate fertilizer exports. This year, we estimate China's exports could be 3 million to 4 million tonnes below the 2021 level. of 11.4 million tonnes or roughly 7 million to 8 million tonnes.

在磷肥方面，過去十年中國成為成品磷肥最大的出口國，於 2021 年供應約 30% 的海運市場。但在過去 18 個月，出口限制以及產能自農業市場轉向工業市場，已大幅降低磷肥出口量。今年我們估計，中國出口量可能較 2021 年的 1,140 萬噸低 300 萬至 400 萬噸，約為 700 萬至 800 萬噸。

On the demand side, we are seeing strong consumption returning. We saw this play out in the spring in North America. After a slow start to the season, favorable economics and depleted slow reserves brought farmers back to the market. Our phosphate and potash shipments in North America were the highest in the last 5 years. This was followed by a great summer fill program and a very strong fall application season. The last 3 months through October were a record for Mosaic's North American potash shipments.

在需求端，我們看到強勁的消費正在回升。我們在北美春季已看到這一點：在季初進展緩慢之後，有利的經濟性與偏低的庫存水準使農民重返市場。我們在北美的磷肥與鉀肥出貨量創下過去 5 年新高。隨後是良好的夏季補庫計畫，以及非常強勁的秋季施肥季。過去 3 個月至 10 月為止，創下美盛北美鉀肥出貨量的紀錄。

We saw similar dynamics play out in Brazil. That for season fertilizer shipments ended up being very strong. For the full year, we expect total fertilizer shipments in Brazil to be 43 million to 44 million tonnes, the second highest total in history. With destocking of fertilizers in Brazil complete, inventories are quite low and will need to be replenished for 2024.

我們在巴西也看到類似的動態。當季肥料出貨最終表現非常強勁。就全年而言，我們預期巴西肥料總出貨量將達4,300萬至4,400萬公噸，為史上第二高。隨著巴西的肥料去庫存已完成，庫存水位相當低，且需要為2024年補庫。

In India, we continue to see strong demand driving elevated imports. Phosphate inventory levels are near the low end of the most recent 5-year range, which suggests shipments are going straight to the ground. Potash inventories are also very low and we're seeing indications of price acceptance that could drive higher shipments going forward.

在印度，我們持續看到強勁需求帶動進口維持在高檔。磷酸鹽庫存水位接近最近5年區間的低端，這顯示出貨幾乎是直接下到田裡。鉀肥庫存也非常低，我們也看到市場對價格的接受度跡象，可能推動未來出貨量提高。

For several quarters now, we have discussed that once volumes begin to move, prices will follow. We're now seeing available volumes move and pricing has stabilized and shown seasonal strength in many markets. These dynamics highlight the value of Mosaic's portfolio. Our business is well positioned to meet customer needs and deliver value to shareholders. In potash, our third quarter results reflect the strong sales volumes in North America to meet that demand and mitigate the impact of Esterhazy's plant turnaround, Colonsay was restarted at the beginning of the quarter.

過去幾個季度，我們一直在討論：一旦量開始動，價格就會跟上。我們現在看到可供應的量正在流動，價格已趨於穩定，並在許多市場展現季節性走強。這些動態凸顯了Mosaic產品組合的價值。我們的業務已做好準備以滿足客戶需求並為股東創造價值。在鉀肥方面，我們第三季的結果反映了北美強勁的銷售量以滿足需求，並減輕Esterhazy工廠歲修的影響；Colonsay已在本季初重新啟動。

Looking ahead, we expect fourth quarter potash sales volumes of 2.4 million to 2.6 million tonnes and netback MOP prices at the mine in the range of $235 to $260 per ton. Our pricing guidance reflects a product mix shift towards overseas sales as North American fall application season winds down.

展望未來，我們預期第四季鉀肥銷售量為240萬至260萬公噸，且礦山端的MOP淨回收價格（netback）區間為每噸235至260美元。我們的價格指引反映產品組合將轉向海外銷售，因北美秋季施用季節逐步結束。

In phosphates, we recovered quickly from the impact of Hurricane Idalia, and we're able to restart operations in approximately 3 days, which really minimized the impact of the storm. Separately, we are working through the repairs at our Faustina facility in Louisiana following a power disruption by the local utility that occurred late in the third quarter. Those repairs should be completed in the fourth quarter.

在磷酸鹽方面，我們從颶風Idalia的影響中迅速恢復，並能在約3天內重啟營運，這確實將風暴影響降到最低。另外，我們正在處理路易斯安那州Faustina設施的修復工作；該設施在第三季末因當地公用事業單位的電力中斷而受影響。這些修復應可在第四季完成。

We expect fourth quarter sales volumes to be in the range of 1.6 million to 1.8 million tonnes, and DAP prices at the plant gate of $530 to $580 per ton.

我們預期第四季銷售量將在160萬至180萬公噸之間，且工廠出廠價（plant gate）的DAP價格為每噸530至580美元。

Moving to Brazil. Our Fertilizantes segment reported strong third quarter results. Let me emphasize that we pushed to destock high-cost inventory in the first half of 2023. And this effort was completed early in the second quarter. Our distribution business is no longer experiencing the same pressures that others are, as you can see from our results this quarter.

接著談巴西。我們的Fertilizantes事業部第三季表現強勁。我想強調的是，我們在2023年上半年積極去化高成本庫存，而這項工作在第二季初就已完成。我們的通路分銷業務不再承受其他同業所面臨的相同壓力，從本季的結果即可看出。

For the fourth quarter, over 90% of our sales volume is already committed and priced. With our order book and inventory position, we expect our fourth quarter distribution margin to be in the range of $40 to $50 per ton. Our approach to capital allocation has not changed. We remain committed to investing in our business, maintaining a strong balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders. Our CapEx budget for 2023 is $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion. And as Bruce mentioned earlier, we expect to reduce total capital spending for 2024 by up to $200 million. Our balance sheet is strong, and our commitment to return capital to shareholders remains unchanged. All excess cash will be returned through dividends and share buybacks. Year-to-date, we have returned nearly $900 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, including $150 million of repurchases in the third quarter.

就第四季而言，我們超過90%的銷售量已承諾且已定價。憑藉我們的訂單簿與庫存部位，我們預期第四季分銷毛利將落在每噸40至50美元。我們的資本配置方針沒有改變。我們仍致力於投資業務、維持強健的資產負債表，並將資本回饋給股東。我們2023年的資本支出（CapEx）預算為13億至14億美元。且如Bruce先前提到的，我們預期2024年總資本支出最多可減少2億美元。我們的資產負債表很強健，回饋股東的承諾也維持不變。所有超額現金將透過股利與庫藏股回購返還。截至目前，我們已透過回購與股利向股東回饋近9億美元，其中第三季回購1.5億美元。

Before we go to questions, let me summarize. The world needs more crop supply and we won't get it without good fertilization. Farmers are seeing good economics and want to maximize yield with fertilizers but supply is uncertain and channel inventories are low. Mosaic is well positioned to benefit while continuing to deliver value to shareholders, and we're returning significant capital while still investing in the business. I look forward to watching Bruce lead Mosaic into the future.

在進入提問前，我先做個總結。全球需要更多作物供給，而沒有良好的施肥就無法達成。農民看到不錯的經濟效益，並希望透過肥料將產量最大化，但供應仍不確定且通路庫存偏低。Mosaic具備良好定位可從中受益，同時持續為股東創造價值；我們在持續投資業務的同時，也回饋大量資本。我期待看到Bruce帶領Mosaic邁向未來。

Paul, let's move over to questions.

Paul，我們來進入提問。

Before we move on to live Q&A. As we've done in past quarters, we'd like to address some of the most common questions we received after we published our earnings materials last night.

在進入即時問答之前，如同過去幾個季度的做法，我們想先回應一些在昨晚發布財報資料後收到的最常見問題。

For our first question, JOC, many have asked us to discuss recent rulings regarding our countervailing duty petitions.

第一個問題，JOC，許多人希望我們談談近期關於我們反補貼稅申請案的裁定。

Yes. Last week, the Department of Commerce raised duties on Russian product, but it lowered duties on Moroccan supply. The Department of Commerce reviews are done on a yearly basis and are based on their assessment of foreign subsidies. While we welcome fair competition, we expect to compete on a level playing field. Unfair foreign government subsidies disturbed that dynamic, so we will continue to seek remedies when foreign players use aggressive marketing based on unfair subsidies that cause harm to our industry. In today's market, trade flows may shift as a result of these adjustments. But as we saw over the last 2 years, global supply and demand is unaffected. Pricing continues strong due to high demand and decreased supply, particularly from China. In a tight market, suppliers will seek out the highest return for their product. And as such, U.S. consumers will need to meet global pricing to ensure sufficient supply for their needs.

好的。上週，美國商務部提高了對俄羅斯產品的關稅，但降低了對摩洛哥供應的關稅。商務部的審查每年進行一次，並以其對外國補貼的評估為基礎。我們樂見公平競爭，但我們期望在公平的競爭環境下競爭。不公平的外國政府補貼破壞了這種動態，因此當海外業者基於不公平補貼而採取激進行銷、並對我們產業造成傷害時，我們將持續尋求救濟。在當前市場中，貿易流向可能因這些調整而改變。但如同我們在過去兩年所見，全球供需並未受到影響。由於需求高企且供給下降（尤其來自中國的供給減少），價格仍維持強勢。在供應吃緊的市場中，供應商會為其產品尋求最高回報。因此，美國消費者將需要與全球價格接軌，才能確保滿足其需求的充足供應。

JOC, others have been struggling with destocking in Brazil, but Mosaic Fertilizantes performed quite well in the third quarter. What differentiates Mosaic's business in Brazil from others? And what is your outlook for the rest of the year and in 2024?

JOC，其他公司在巴西去庫存方面一直很吃力，但Mosaic Fertilizantes第三季表現相當出色。Mosaic在巴西的業務與其他公司相比有何不同？你對今年剩餘時間以及2024年的展望為何？

In 2022, we, like others in the Brazil agricultural industry, we're carrying inventory to support the expected demand. When that demand slowed in the second half of the year, we were left with higher-priced inventory. But unlike others in Brazil, who are reliant on third-party distributors and retailers, they have limited ability to directly destock their inventory. We, on the other hand, we're able to effectively deal with the destocking in the first half of the year. And by the third quarter, prices had stabilized and the distribution margins had returned back to our expected range of $30 to $40 per ton. And as I mentioned, with 90% of our product committed and priced in the fourth quarter, we expect margins to increase further to $40 to $50 per ton.

在2022年，我們和巴西農業產業的其他公司一樣，為了支撐預期需求而持有庫存。當需求在下半年放緩時，我們就留下了較高成本的庫存。但不同於巴西其他仰賴第三方分銷商與零售商的公司，他們直接去化庫存的能力有限；而我們則能在上半年有效處理去庫存。到了第三季，價格已趨於穩定，分銷毛利也回到我們預期的每噸30至40美元區間。並且如我所提到的，第四季我們有90%的產品已承諾且已定價，因此我們預期毛利將進一步提升至每噸40至50美元。

Now there is always some positional risk in the distribution business. However, I believe we have managed through this volatile market as effectively as possible, which really sets us apart from other ag input companies. and emphasizes the value of the integration of our production and distribution businesses.

當然，分銷業務總是存在一定的部位風險。然而，我相信我們已在這個波動市場中以盡可能有效的方式完成應對，這確實讓我們有別於其他農業投入品公司，也凸顯了我們生產與分銷業務一體化整合的價值。

JOC, our next question is on the potash market. Pricing has been muted despite supply uncertainty. How do you see the potash market evolving over the next year?

JOC，下一個問題關於鉀肥市場。儘管供應存在不確定性，價格仍相對平淡。你如何看待未來一年鉀肥市場的演變？

Thank you. As you've seen from the slides we published last night, there is a clear relationship between underapplication of phosphate and potash and below-trend yields. Now farmers and retailers are recognizing this and demand is rebounding. As we've said in the past, demand returns, volumes move and prices follow. We saw this pattern play out this year with global volumes returning.

謝謝。正如你們從我們昨晚發布的投影片所看到的，磷酸鹽與鉀肥施用不足與低於趨勢的產量之間存在明確關係。現在農民與零售商已意識到這點，需求正在回升。正如我們過去所說，需求回來、量開始動、價格就會跟上。我們今年已看到這種模式隨著全球出貨量回升而上演。

Jenny, can you walk us through the volume rebounds and why we expect a higher potash volume in 2024?

Jenny，你能帶我們了解一下出貨量回升的情況，以及為何我們預期2024年鉀肥出貨量會更高嗎？

Sure, JOC. We are seeing very strong broad-based demand recovery in 2023, which we are forecasting 5 million tonnes of recovery to 65 million tonnes. It is led by North America market. We have had a very strong spring application and then summer field to replenish the empty channel. And for this full application, we are seeing a very strong application again. We're still having customers buying tonnes for us for the in-season application. And for these new tonnes, we have realized $20 per ton price increases for Midwest warehouses in North America.

當然可以，JOC。我們在2023年看到非常強勁且廣泛的需求復甦，我們預測需求將回升500萬公噸至6,500萬公噸。這主要由北美市場帶動。我們春季施用非常強勁，接著夏季也持續補充通路中已見底的庫存。而在這個完整施用季，我們再次看到非常強勁的施用。我們仍有客戶向我們購買噸數用於季內施用。對於這些新增噸數，我們在北美中西部倉庫已實現每噸20美元的價格上調。

Brazil, similarly to North America, we have seen very strong application for summer crop soybean application. The window for the delivery has planned for -- by 2 months which gives farmers the opportunity to put down more potash into the market with a strong [fall] application in Brazil that sets a very strong recovery in that market. And we believe there are a big buying come for the safrinha corn season, which is about to start soon.

巴西方面，與北美類似，我們看到夏季作物大豆施用非常強勁。交付窗口規劃為——提前2個月，這讓農民有機會在巴西強勁的[秋季]施用中向市場投入更多鉀肥，並帶動該市場非常強勁的復甦。我們也認為，針對即將開始的二季作（safrinha）玉米季，將出現一波較大的採購。

And across the world to China, we are seeing China has record imports of potash this year. And domestically, in terms of the consumption, there's probably 10% of the potash application interests in China. And that is driven by the concerns to the food security and also a very strong commodity prices there as well. So with this major market demand growth in 2023, which sits well into 2024 that we are going to continue to see broad-based demand recovery.

此外，放眼全球到中國，我們看到中國今年鉀肥進口創下紀錄。在國內消費方面，中國的鉀肥施用意願可能增加約10%。這主要由對糧食安全的擔憂，以及當地非常強勁的商品價格所驅動。因此，隨著2023年這些主要市場的需求成長延續到2024年，我們將持續看到廣泛的需求復甦。

And starting from Southeast Asia, which in Malaysia and Indonesia, they have been working through their high-priced inventory throughout 2023. And we are seeing customers reengaging now to prepare for 2024 as they come out of our EU drought impact and low inventory of the potash in the channel. And lastly, rice and palm oil prices are very constructive for the farmers there to put down potash, which has been under applied over the last 2 years. Indian subsidy program is supportive to potash as well. With lower farmer price, we should see a boost of the farmer usage of potash in that part of the market. And with improved affordability and stabilized price, we are going to see very broad range of the demand recovery across the world in 2024.

而從東南亞開始，在馬來西亞與印尼，他們在整個 2023 年一直在消化其高價庫存。我們現在看到客戶重新投入，為 2024 年做準備，因為他們正走出我們歐盟乾旱影響以及通路中鉀肥庫存偏低的狀況。最後，稻米與棕櫚油價格對當地農民而言非常有利，促使他們施用鉀肥；而鉀肥在過去 2 年一直施用不足。印度的補貼計畫也對鉀肥有支撐作用。隨著農民端價格較低，我們應會看到該市場區域農民對鉀肥使用量的提升。並且在可負擔性改善與價格趨於穩定之下，2024 年全球將出現非常廣泛的需求復甦。

Thanks, Jenny. So Jenny has given a view of the demand side. From a supply side, we're modeling a recovery in Belarus from 70% to about 80% of pre-sanctioned shipments. We're expecting Uralkali to have recovered to prewar levels and modest growth from EuroChem's VolgaKaliy. In Laos, we also expect to see some modest growth. So overall, if any of these fall short, we will see lower shipments. Not because of a demand problem, but because there is not enough supply.

謝謝，Jenny。所以 Jenny 已經從需求面提供了觀點。從供給面來看，我們的模型假設白俄羅斯的出貨將從制裁前水準的 70% 回升到約 80%。我們預期 Uralkali 將恢復到戰前水準，並且 EuroChem 的 VolgaKaliy 會有溫和成長。在寮國，我們也預期會看到一些溫和成長。因此整體而言，如果其中任何一項不如預期，我們將看到較低的出貨量。這不是因為需求問題，而是因為供給不足。

Thanks, JOC. Operator, please open the lines for followup questions.

謝謝，JOC。接線員，請開放線路讓大家進行追問。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question comes from Steve Byrne with BOA.

（接線員指示）今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行（BOA）的 Steve Byrne。

And it's been a pleasure working with you, JOC. I wanted to drill into Fertilizantes a little bit here. Are we right that roughly 20% of the fertilizer volumes that you distribute come from your own phosphate production in the country, but we would assume the EBITDA contribution from that in-country production is much greater than that 20%. Is that right? And what are -- what's your prospects for either expanding that production or maybe switching to more TSP and reducing your ammonia purchasing cost down there?

能與你共事很愉快，JOC。我想更深入了解一下 Fertilizantes。我們的理解是否正確：你們所分銷的肥料量中，大約 20% 來自你們在當地的自有磷酸鹽生產；但我們推測，這部分在國內生產對 EBITDA 的貢獻遠高於 20%。這樣理解對嗎？另外，你們對於擴大該生產、或是改為更多 TSP 並降低你們在當地採購氨的成本，有什麼展望？

Thanks, Steve. Yes. So in Brazil, one of the benefits of the integration, of course, is we can move our own production through our distribution system. And while we sell a good chunk of it as a B2B business to other players in the market, about 20% is not a bad number to estimate of what goes through our own system. That product, we transfer at market price. So we try to keep as clean base between the 2 as possible. That said, now we would expect under general market conditions that your margins for the production business would be better than distribution or at least they would be for products such as TSP or DAP. As you say, probably our least profitable product that we make down there would be the SSP for good reason. And so we're constantly looking at how we make that product mix better, how we make it more profitable.

謝謝，Steve。是的。在巴西，整合帶來的好處之一，當然就是我們可以透過自家的分銷系統銷售自有生產。雖然我們也會以 B2B 方式把其中相當一部分賣給市場上的其他業者，但用大約 20% 來估算經由我們自家系統流通的比例並不差。這些產品我們以市價進行內部移轉，因此我們盡量在兩個業務之間維持乾淨、清楚的基礎。話雖如此，在一般市場條件下，我們預期生產業務的利潤率會優於分銷業務，至少對於像 TSP 或 DAP 這類產品是如此。正如你所說，我們在當地生產中獲利最低的產品可能是 SSP，這是有其原因的。因此我們一直在檢視如何改善產品組合、如何提升獲利能力。

And we can't ignore dicalcium phosphate or animal feed as well in there, so -- which is, again, one of our highest return products. So that whole area of mix we're looking at. We've got a strong plan down there to reduce cost but also to optimize production rates. So all of that is in works and all of that will be something that Bruce and with Karen Swager and her team will be working hard to accomplish.

而且我們也不能忽略磷酸氫鈣（dicalcium phosphate）或動物飼料這一塊——這同樣是我們報酬率最高的產品之一。所以我們正在檢視整個組合。我們在當地有一個強而有力的計畫，既要降低成本，也要最佳化產能利用率。因此這些都在推進中，Bruce 以及 Karen Swager 和她的團隊都會努力把這些目標落實。

And our next question today comes from Richard Garchitorena with Wells Fargo.

我們今天的下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的 Richard Garchitorena。

So my first question, just on the outlook for potash. Obviously, strong growth next year, 5 million tonnes. I was wondering how do you think about your operations heading into next year? It looks like with the 4Q guidance, you're going to come in around 8.7 million to 8.9 million tonnes of production. So do you expect to keep those production levels next year, grow them to grow with the market? How are you thinking about that?

我的第一個問題是關於鉀肥的展望。顯然明年成長很強，增加 500 萬噸。我想問你們如何看待明年你們的營運？看起來依照第四季指引，你們的產量大約會落在 870 萬到 890 萬噸左右。那麼你們預期明年會維持這樣的產量水準、還是會提高以配合市場成長？你們是怎麼思考的？

Yes. Thanks, Richard. And let me follow that with also a little bit of a discussion on how we look at Colonsay. For the first part of the question, I think yes, we would expect the same sort of level next year, maybe a slight uptick because of increasing demand. But we're looking at somewhere in that same range of production, like I say, maybe a couple of hundred thousand tonnes higher depending on Canpotex in particular. But in terms of the strategy for it, over the last few years, Colonsay has been our swing plant. And we've been able to ramp it up and down efficiently, giving us the ability to run our lower-cost Esterhazy and Belle Plaine at full rates, while being able to flex production to meet demand.

是的，謝謝你，Richard。我也想順帶談一下我們如何看待 Colonsay。就問題的第一部分，我想是的，我們預期明年大致會維持相近水準，可能因需求增加而略有上調。但我們會在同一個產量區間內，如我所說，可能高出幾十萬噸，特別取決於 Canpotex。不過就策略而言，過去幾年 Colonsay 一直是我們的調節工廠（swing plant）。我們能有效率地上調或下調產量，使我們能讓成本較低的 Esterhazy 與 Belle Plaine 以滿載運轉，同時又能彈性調整產量以滿足需求。

So as we look forward to next year, that is really going to be the question. What is demand going to look like and we certainly have the ability to go either up or down from the approximately, as you say, 8.9 million tonnes, which is about where we think we'll spend, and this year, if you include K-Mag. So we always prioritize Esterhazy and Belle Plaine, and we focus that on the North American granular grade market, where we see our best netbacks. And then our next focus is meeting the international sales program of Canpotex. This year, strong North American demand, coupled with lower imports meant we needed Colonsay, both to offset Esterhazy's turnaround and to meet that increased demand.

因此展望明年，真正的問題會是需求會長什麼樣子；而我們確實有能力在你所說的大約 890 萬噸上下調整——這大概也是我們預期今年（若包含 K-Mag）會落在的水準。我們一向優先考量 Esterhazy 與 Belle Plaine，並把重點放在北美顆粒級（granular grade）市場，因為那裡的淨回收（netbacks）最佳。接下來的重點是滿足 Canpotex 的國際銷售計畫。今年北美需求強勁，加上進口較少，意味著我們需要 Colonsay，一方面用來抵消 Esterhazy 的歲修影響，另一方面也用來滿足增加的需求。

In the fourth quarter, we're expecting strong international shipments through Canpotex as global markets continue to rebound. So at this stage, we expect to need Colonsay to meet that demand and replenish our granular grade inventory in preparation for the North American spring season. And then -- so that would put us about -- probably about the same level. But as we move into the second half of 2024 and beyond, Esterhazy K3 will be fully ramped up and the addition of our hydro flow project will optimize their capacity there. And so at this stage, we'll have to reassess the longer-term role for Colonsay. And as always, we're focused on running our assets in a manner that maximizes value, taking into account the need for flexibility and to deal with the seasonality and market variability in our business.

在第四季，我們預期透過 Canpotex 的國際出貨將維持強勁，因為全球市場持續回升。因此在目前階段，我們預期需要 Colonsay 來滿足該需求，並補充顆粒級庫存，以因應北美春季用肥季。然後——所以這會讓我們大概——可能維持在差不多的水準。但當我們進入 2024 年下半年及之後，Esterhazy K3 將會完全爬坡到位，而我們的 hydro flow 專案加入後也將最佳化其產能。因此在這個階段，我們必須重新評估 Colonsay 的長期角色。一如既往，我們專注於以能最大化價值的方式運行資產，同時考量我們業務所需的彈性，以及因應季節性與市場波動。

So just to summarize that in terms of your original question, we expect to run in that same sort of range, maybe growing with the market, which is growing at about 2% or 3% a year, but next year we'll grow even more. And if we need that volume -- or if we find good value-adding sales for that kind of volumes, we will run up. And if we don't, we'll probably hold where we are today, with Colonsay being the variability in that.

所以回到你原本的問題做個總結：我們預期會在相同的區間運轉，可能隨市場成長而略增；市場通常每年成長約 2% 或 3%，但明年會成長更多。如果我們需要那個量——或者如果我們找到能為這些量帶來良好增值的銷售——我們就會提高產量；如果沒有，我們大概會維持在今天的水準，而 Colonsay 會是其中的可變調節項。

And our next question today comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場（BMO Capital Markets）的 Joel Jackson。

I got to follow up on that last question you answered because I'm confused. So you were saying Mosaic is saying today that you think demand for potash global is going to grow 5 million tonnes next year 65 million tonnes to 70 million tonnes. Your Canpotex partner said 66 million tonnes to 69 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes, whatever, that's great growth. Your answer says that you're going to produce about the same in potash, Mosaic next year, then you said, but you might grow with the market, which grows 2% or 3%, but it actually grows more. So explain to me this question, if the market is going to grow 3 million tonnes, 4 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes next year and you Mosaic can't supply more, and you're tied offshore with Nutrien under Canpotex who's going to supply the extra 3, 4, 5 million tonnes?

我得追問你剛才回答的那個問題，因為我有點困惑。你剛才說 Mosaic 今天表示你們認為明年全球鉀肥需求將增加 500 萬噸，從 6,500 萬噸到 7,000 萬噸。你們的 Canpotex 夥伴則說是 6,600 萬噸到 6,900 萬噸，增加 300 萬噸。不管是 300 萬噸、500 萬噸，都是很好的成長。但你的回答又說明年 Mosaic 的鉀肥產量大概會差不多，然後你又說可能會跟著市場成長，而市場成長是 2% 或 3%，但其實明年成長更多。所以請你解釋一下：如果明年市場要增加 300 萬、400 萬、500 萬噸，而你們 Mosaic 供應不了更多，而且你們在海外又透過 Canpotex 與 Nutrien 綁在一起，那多出來的 300、400、500 萬噸會由誰來供應？

Well, I think that's exactly what I said in the prepared questions, Joel. Thank you, by the way, for the questions, and thank you for the comments. Yes. So if you look at this, we expect to see Belarus bring out about another 1 million tonnes. We expect Uralkali to bring out probably another 1 million tonnes. And then EuroChem, with their VolgaKaliy mine, which is ramping up now and recognize that's been a pretty slow ramp-up. But if we got 0.5 million tonnes to 700,000 tonnes between Usolskiy and VolgaKaliy, there, you're -- now you're at 2.7 million tonnes, add another 1 million tonnes from Laos, and you're pretty much at that gap. And that's what I was saying. If those players and then probably likely up to maybe, and I say maybe 1 million tonnes for Canpotex, which would mean that, that has satisfied that difference between 65 million tonnes and 70 million tonnes. So our share of a Canpotex of that would be 300,000 tonnes or 400,000 tonnes, at which point we would need Colonsay for 2024. Otherwise, Colonsay wouldn't be needed.

嗯，我想這正是我在事先準備的問題裡所說的，Joel。順帶一提，謝謝你的提問，也謝謝你的評論。是的。所以如果你看這個，我們預期白俄羅斯會再釋出大約另外100萬噸。我們預期Uralkali大概也會再釋出另外100萬噸。然後是EuroChem，他們的VolgaKaliy礦目前正在爬坡增產，而且要承認那一直是相當緩慢的爬坡。但如果我們在Usolskiy和VolgaKaliy之間能做到50萬噸到70萬噸，那麼你——現在就到270萬噸了，再加上來自寮國的另外100萬噸，你基本上就補上那個缺口了。這就是我在說的。如果那些玩家，再加上很可能最多也許——我說也許——Canpotex再增加100萬噸，那就意味著已經滿足了6500萬噸與7000萬噸之間的差額。因此，我們在Canpotex中的份額會是30萬噸或40萬噸，屆時我們在2024年就需要Colonsay。否則，就不需要Colonsay。

But again, those are based on expectations that these other players bring up those tons. If it plays out different, if they do better last year, I think Belarus did better than what we expected. Will they continue that ramp? We think that's unlikely, but we'll see how it plays out. So I don't think there's any inconsistency in how we're looking at it. We see tonnage being similar to what it is this year with the exception of maybe 300,000 tonnes, 400,000 tonnes for Canpotex. And North America has had a very good year, and I am sure probably will continue.

但再次強調，這些都是基於預期其他玩家能把那些噸數拉上來。如果結果不同，如果他們去年做得更好——我認為白俄羅斯的表現就比我們預期的更好——他們會持續那樣的爬坡嗎？我們認為不太可能，但我們會看實際發展。所以我不認為我們的看法有任何不一致。我們看到的噸數會與今年相近，例外可能是Canpotex的30萬噸、40萬噸。而北美今年表現非常好，我也很確定大概會延續下去。

And then the one thing I will say on all of it is Canpotex has never done those levels of tonnage and not because the mines can't supply it, but the logistics and the market -- the market hasn't needed or the logistics haven't supported it. Last year -- well, the year before last, we had floods, we had rail problems, we had fires. This year, we've had port strikes. We've had failures at ports, more port strikes. It just isn't thinking that we're going to jump up by 2 million tonnes or 3 million tonnes, I just don't think is realistic. So I don't know how you put that in your model, Joel, but you're going to have to try.

然後我想就整體再補充一點：Canpotex從來沒有做到那樣的出貨量，並不是因為礦山供應不了，而是物流與市場——市場不需要，或物流不支持。去年——嗯，前年我們有洪水、有鐵路問題、有火災。今年我們有港口罷工、港口故障、更多港口罷工。要說我們會一下子跳增200萬噸或300萬噸，我就是不覺得現實。所以你要怎麼把這放進你的模型裡，Joel，我不知道，但你得試著處理。

And our next question today comes from Ben Theurer with Barclays.

我們今天的下一個問題來自Barclays的Ben Theurer。

As well from my side, JOC, all the best for retirement, enjoy that peace. Now on my question, I wanted to go back to some of the phosphate comments you made and the projects you're looking into PPA for LFP and those investments, clearly something that come up more frequently as a solution to the electrification of some light vehicles. So if we think about how you're positioned and maybe the CapEx needs, can you help us put that into perspective? Just what you think this might cost you to build this out? And what's like the expected return profile of that business? That would be much appreciated.

我這邊也一樣，JOC，祝你退休一切順利，享受那份寧靜。回到我的問題，我想再回到你對磷酸鹽的一些評論，以及你們正在研究用於LFP的PPA和那些投資；顯然，這類方案作為部分輕型車電動化的解決方案，出現得越來越頻繁。所以如果我們思考你們的布局以及可能的資本支出需求，你能否幫我們把它放到一個更具體的脈絡裡？也就是你認為把這個建起來大概會花多少？以及這項業務預期的報酬輪廓是什麼？非常感謝。

Okay. Thanks, Ben. Yes, so at this stage, we're at the, I would say, early feasibility stage moving into the design phase to get to a final, let's call it, a bankable feasibility to do all this. So the numbers are pretty preliminary. What we've looked at so far, though, has been for purified phosphoric acid and potentially building a powder plant, which would be the precursor to a lithium iron phosphate cathode. So at this stage, we're probably looking at 100,000 tonnes of purified phosphoric acid at our Louisiana facility and our expectation of cost is probably in the range of $0.5 billion to build that.

好的。謝謝，Ben。是的，所以在這個階段，我們處於——我會說——早期可行性研究階段，正進入設計階段，以便最終形成一份可融資的可行性研究（bankable feasibility）來推進所有這些工作。所以這些數字都相當初步。不過，到目前為止我們所評估的是生產純化磷酸（purified phosphoric acid），以及可能建一座粉體工廠，作為磷酸鐵鋰正極材料的前驅體。因此在這個階段，我們大概是在路易斯安那廠規劃10萬噸的純化磷酸產能，而我們對成本的預期大概在5億美元左右來建置。

Now obviously, we have to look at the long-term demand profile and what we can expect for pricing. But what we've seen so far is first phase has got a strong higher than well over cost of capital return. And then if we go future phases, obviously, the capital per ton decreases and market risk, et cetera, et cetera.

當然，我們必須看長期需求輪廓，以及我們對定價能有什麼樣的預期。但到目前為止我們看到的是：第一期的報酬率很強，遠高於資本成本回報。然後如果進入後續期數，顯然每噸資本支出會下降，市場風險等等也是如此。

And what we're seeing, though, from a qualitative perspective is due to the expense of nickel, cobalt, et cetera, there is a strong trend towards lithium iron phosphate batteries, not only for electric vehicles but also for stationary power and particularly, our view is that while electric vehicles will be the early growth engine, long term, you will need these stationary batteries to make up for the variability of both solar and wind. They don't tend to come at exactly the same time as demand. So you have to have some level of buffering.

不過從質性角度來看，我們看到的是：由於鎳、鈷等成本高昂，市場正強烈轉向磷酸鐵鋰電池，不僅用於電動車，也用於固定式儲能。特別是，我們的看法是，雖然電動車會是早期的成長引擎，但長期而言，你需要這些固定式電池來彌補太陽能與風能的波動性。它們往往不會剛好在需求出現的同一時間發電，所以你必須有一定程度的緩衝。

And our next question today comes from John Roberts at Mizuho.

我們今天的下一個問題來自Mizuho的John Roberts。

Best wishes JOC and congrats, Bruce. I'm looking at Slide 7 in the hand deck on under application versus yield. Obviously, the bottom line is that most of the world is in the left quadrant. But are there any other key takeaways from those slides?

祝福你，JOC，也恭喜你，Bruce。我在看簡報資料（hand deck）的第7頁，關於施用不足與產量的對照。很明顯，結論是世界大多數地區都在左側象限。但從那些投影片還有沒有其他關鍵重點？

I think the key takeaway there from my perspective, John, and again, thanks for the question. I think this is -- so intuitively, we've been saying for a long time that fertilization is what drives plant growth. I mean if you don't feed any organism, they don't grow. But what we haven't been able to do in the past, I guess, is really show the relationship in a clear way. Now what we've seen here is under application and probably mining of the soil, even with both of those, we're seeing a clear relationship between the yields and particularly phosphate and potash usage. Now you see the nitrogen, which is more likely to be used in first, and you see particularly when you look at Asia, which includes India, where the overapplication of nitrogen actually isn't helping yields at all, whereas the underapplication of phosphate and potash really is hurting yields.

John，從我的角度看，我認為那裡的關鍵重點是——再次謝謝你的問題。我覺得這是——直覺上，我們長期以來一直在說施肥驅動植物生長。我的意思是，如果你不餵養任何生物，它們就不會生長。但過去我們大概做不到的是，用非常清楚的方式把這種關係呈現出來。現在我們在這裡看到的是：施用不足，甚至可以說是在「掏空」土壤；即便在這兩種情況下，我們仍看到產量與磷肥、鉀肥使用量之間存在清楚的關係。你也會看到氮肥通常更可能先被使用；而且特別是當你看亞洲（包含印度）時，氮肥過量施用其實對產量完全沒有幫助，反而是磷肥與鉀肥施用不足，確實正在傷害產量。

And if you do the math on those things, if you take phosphate and potash application into account and then you look at the yield loss, it's about a 2:1 price of fertilizer to yield loss. So in other words, if you're saving $10 on fertilizer, you're losing $20 on yield. So the point here is farmers are incented to properly fertilize their field, and they cannot afford to continue to mine the soil.

如果你把這些做個計算，把磷肥與鉀肥施用量納入考量，再去看產量損失，大約是「肥料價格對產量損失」2:1的關係。換句話說，如果你在肥料上省10美元，你會在產量上損失20美元。所以這裡的重點是：農民有誘因去正確施肥，他們也無法承受繼續掏空土壤。

And our next question today comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們今天的下一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Vincent Andrews。

And let me echo the comments, JOC, congratulations on retirement and a pleasure working with you all these years. In terms of my question, I wanted to ask a bit more on the Brazilian market and some of the comments that were made in terms of the safrinha season, and it sounds like you're pretty optimistic about application rates there. And I just maybe you're getting good intelligence from your Fertilizantes business versus some of the other comments that are out there.

我也呼應大家的話，JOC，恭喜你退休，也很高興這些年能與你合作。就我的問題而言，我想再多問一些關於巴西市場，以及你們對二季作（safrinha）的一些評論；聽起來你對那裡的施用率相當樂觀。我想也許你們透過Fertilizantes業務掌握到不錯的第一手資訊，和外界一些評論不太一樣。

But there is commentary and some data suggesting that planted acreage is going to be down on corn. Maybe some of us can go to cover crops and some of the grower associations are talking about or advising their growers to maybe back off on inputs. But are you seeing on the ground that the demand and the shipments and so forth is quite strong ahead for that season? Or what's giving you the confidence about this?

但也有一些評論與數據顯示，玉米的播種面積可能會下降。也許有些人會改種覆蓋作物（cover crops），一些種植者協會也在談或建議他們的種植戶可能要減少投入品。但你們在第一線看到的是，該季節前的需求與出貨等確實很強嗎？或者說，是什麼讓你對此有信心？

Yes. Thanks, Vincent. I'm try to unpack that one a little bit. Yes. So as we head into safrinha, I think the concern that's out there, if you will. And I'm not saying it's an unfounded concern is when you look at the basis for corn that we're starting to see in the market, it's not the global market price. It's the idea that the basis -- the in-country basis, the availability of transport and et cetera, to get it out of the country has been challenging, and it's probably hurt the economics of some of the farmers.

是的。謝謝，Vincent。我試著把這個問題稍微拆解一下。是的。當我們進入二季作（safrinha）時，我認為外界的擔憂是——如果你願意這麼說——我不是說那是沒有根據的擔憂——當你看我們開始在市場上看到的玉米基差（basis），它不是全球市場價格。重點在於基差——也就是國內基差、運輸可得性等等——把玉米運出國一直很具挑戰，這可能已經傷害了一些農民的經濟性。

That being said, if we look at the general in-country price to the price of fertilizer and what we call the barter ratio down in Brazil, it still shows a fairly profitable corn yield and on -- sorry, corn market. So our view is that probably is early stage and probably a little overstated. It's like what we saw this year in safrinha season, where earlier projections, we were looking at -- people were looking at 40 million tonnes. Now we're looking a lot closer to 43 million tonnes of total fertilizer to Brazil, which is starting to get back to the peak of 46 million tonnes. Historically, Brazil has grown at about 4% or 5% a year. So we expect, in general, Brazil to continue to grow both acreage and yields. So fertilizer demand has to follow that.

話雖如此，如果我們看巴西國內的一般價格相對於肥料價格，以及我們所稱的以物易物比率（barter ratio），它仍然顯示玉米——抱歉，是玉米市場——相當有利可圖。因此我們的看法是，這可能仍處於早期階段，而且可能有些被誇大。這就像我們今年在二季作（safrinha）看到的情況，早期預測我們——人們在看4,000萬噸。現在我們看到巴西肥料總量更接近4,300萬噸，開始回到4,600萬噸的峰值。歷史上，巴西每年約成長4%到5%。因此我們預期，整體而言，巴西將持續在種植面積與單產上成長，所以肥料需求必須隨之跟上。

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Jacob Bout with CIBC.

謝謝。今天我們的下一個問題來自CIBC的Jacob Bout。

Congratulations JOC on your retirement. Maybe just going back to the potash industry. Last week, there was the announcement of the second phase of Jansen. And just curious on getting your thoughts on what the impact of Jansen will be on the potash industry, both in North America and also globally? And do you think about changing your market strategy allows these ramps?

恭喜JOC退休。也許回到鉀肥產業。上週宣布了Jansen的第二期。想請教您認為Jansen對鉀肥產業（北美以及全球）的影響會是什麼？以及在這些產能爬坡（ramps）之下，您是否會考慮調整你們的市場策略？

Yes. Thanks, Jacob. Let me, first of all, say, by their own announcements, and I have had conversations that would tell me that while they will start up first phase at the end of 2026, they won't be ramped up to 4 million tonnes on their own estimates until 2030. At 2030, they would start their second phase, and that would probably ramp up similarly over 4-5 years. So in our 5-year forecast, we have little or no significant production from BHP.

是的。謝謝你，Jacob。首先我想說，依照他們自己的公告，而且我也有一些對話可佐證：雖然他們會在2026年底啟動第一期，但依他們自己的估算，要到2030年才會爬坡到400萬噸。到了2030年，他們會開始第二期，而第二期大概也會在4到5年內以類似速度爬坡。因此在我們的5年期預測中，來自BHP的產量幾乎沒有或沒有顯著貢獻。

As we look out 10-ish years, which is what we're talking about here, if we see the market growing at the rate from -- as I said to Joel, and maybe the point here is growing from the 72 million tonnes, we were pre-war, not from the 65 million tonnes. But if we see the market growing at that 2% a year, that's 1 million-plus tonnes a year. So in 10 years, you could easily be in a position where that could be absorbed reasonably. How it will work from a trade flow perspective is absolutely yet to be seen. We assume that they would go into the North American market. But the best analogy probably is the K+S Bethune mine, where for all the worry about the disruption, there's really came on and it came on slowly. They focused on the export market, and it really was absorbed in quite reasonably. So who knows what it will do, I guess, if it comes on faster, that could change people's strategies. But for now, I think I would say is hold the course and I don't see it as a big threat for a long time.

如果把時間拉到大約10年——也就是我們在這裡討論的範圍——假設市場以我剛才對Joel所說的速度成長，而且這裡的重點可能是：市場是從戰前的7,200萬噸成長，而不是從6,500萬噸成長。若市場以每年2%的速度成長，那就是每年增加100萬噸以上。那麼10年後，你很容易會處於一個可以相當合理地吸收這些新增供給的位置。至於從貿易流向（trade flow）的角度會如何運作，現在絕對還言之過早。我們假設他們會進入北美市場。但最好的類比可能是K+S的Bethune礦，當初大家很擔心會造成衝擊，但實際上它上線後是緩慢爬坡；他們把重點放在出口市場，而市場也相當合理地吸收了。所以我想，誰也不知道會怎樣；如果它更快上線，可能會改變大家的策略。但就目前而言，我會說維持既定方針（hold the course），而且我不認為在很長一段時間內它會是重大威脅。

And our next question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自UBS的Joshua Spector。

This is Lucas Beaumont for Josh. Just switching to phosphates. So your shipment forecast there is calling for an increase of 2 million to 3 million tonnes next year. So just wondering, could you kind of walk us through how you see your production outlook compared to this year? And how much of that shipment uplift would you expect to capture from this year's base?

我是代Josh提問的Lucas Beaumont。切換到磷肥。你們的出貨量預測顯示明年將增加200萬到300萬噸。想請你們說明一下，相較於今年，你們如何看待自身的產量展望？以及這些出貨增量中，你們預期有多少會是從今年的基礎量所帶來的提升？

Okay. Thank you. Yes. So we are expecting growth in the range of 2 million to 3 million tonnes next year. As the market continues to recover, there will be some recovery by us and probably our Moroccan competitor will have some increased production. We expect a small increase again from China's exports, not back to where they were, but about flat to where they were last year -- or this year, sorry.

好的，謝謝。是的，我們預期明年的成長區間為200萬到300萬噸。隨著市場持續復甦，我們會有一些復甦，我們的摩洛哥競爭對手可能也會增加一些產量。我們預期中國出口會再小幅增加，不會回到過去的水準，但大致與去年——或今年，抱歉——持平。

In all cases, the demand, like I say, will be met by all of those. And then some of the Middle East producers will also be ramping up and PhosAgro, I think, has a small ramp-up that they're looking at. So it will be met. But what we see there is probably a phosphate market that continues to be tight and maybe even tightening a bit next year. So it actually looks pretty good from a perspective of our future.

在所有情況下，如我所說，需求將由上述各方供應來滿足。此外，一些中東生產商也會在爬坡增產，而我認為PhosAgro也有一個小幅的增產計畫。因此供應會到位。但我們看到的可能是磷肥市場仍將維持緊俏，甚至明年可能會更緊一些。所以從我們未來的角度來看，實際上看起來相當不錯。

And our next question comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自RBC Capital Markets的Andrew Wong。

So just in the phosphate segment, kind of as we work through this more recent issue and operations, percentage of return to normal. Can you just talk about what normal looks like on a quarter-to-quarter basis? I mean, it's been kind of difficult with the different impacts over the past couple of years. So just kind of get a good sense on what's a normal production run rate, what are normal costs? What do they look like today kind of relative to where we've been historically?

就磷肥部門而言，當我們處理這個較近期的問題與營運狀況、逐步回到正常的百分比時，你能否談談「正常」在逐季（quarter-to-quarter）看起來是什麼樣子？過去幾年受到不同因素影響，確實有點難判斷。所以想更清楚了解：正常的產量運轉率（production run rate）是多少、正常成本是多少？相較於歷史水準，今天看起來如何？

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. I'm going to hand this over to Bruce because Bruce will be obviously responsible, along with Karen and her team for the future of the phosphate here. And I think -- yes, a fair question because we have had a lot of issues with respect to big hurricanes, pandemics and some mechanical faults. So worth a bit of a detailed answer. Bruce, can I give it to you?

是的，謝謝你，Andrew。我會把這題交給Bruce，因為未來磷肥業務顯然將由Bruce與Karen及其團隊共同負責。我想——是的，這是個合理的問題，因為我們確實遇到很多問題，包括大型颶風、疫情以及一些機械故障。所以值得更詳細地回答。Bruce，我可以交給你嗎？

Yes. Thanks, JOC, and thanks, Andrew. Just to start with your question, we're -- I think historical levels that we've proven about 2 million tons a quarter is what we would expect out of Florida once we get back to kind of normal operation. But I think it's worth to JOC's point, kind of walking through some of the history here in the last 2 years with our phosphate production because it has been below those historical levels for sure. Some of it has been a function of some of the new rock reserves that we're now mining here in Florida. We are becoming a lot more familiar with the kind of chemistry of the rock and should see some of those incremental impacts start to subside in the future as we move forward.

可以。謝謝你，JOC，也謝謝你，Andrew。先從你的問題開始，我們——我想我們已經證明的歷史水準是：一旦回到大致正常運作，我們預期佛羅里達每季約200萬噸。不過我認為呼應JOC的觀點，值得回顧一下過去兩年我們磷肥產量的一些歷史，因為確實低於那些歷史水準。其中一部分原因是我們目前在佛羅里達開採的一些新礦石儲量。我們正變得更熟悉這些礦石的化學特性，隨著時間推進，未來應該會看到其中一些增量影響開始消退。

But really, the larger issue is kind of two. One has been Louisiana this year. We've experienced some unexpected operational and maintenance issues with 2 of our larger sulfuric acid plants, which has restricted ultimately finished product production on the back half of this year. A large chunk of that production was just returned to service this week. And then the remaining work that needs to be done there will be completed by the end of the year. So going into 2024, those issues should be largely behind us in Louisiana.

但真正更大的問題大致有兩個。今年其中之一是在路易斯安那。我們兩座較大型的硫酸廠出現一些意料之外的營運與維修問題，最終限制了今年下半年成品的產量。其中很大一部分產能在本週已恢復運轉；其餘需要完成的工作將在年底前完成。因此進入2024年，路易斯安那的這些問題應該大致都會過去。

And then the last that JOC kind of alluded to is the lingering effects of the pandemic and the various hurricanes these past few years in both Florida and Louisiana have proven more difficult than I think we otherwise would have expected. And I think that's not uncommon, not only for us but in other industries that we've heard as well. So we are investing a significant part of our sustaining capital to restore some of the historical proven turnaround cycles that have been disrupted through the pandemic and some of these hurricanes. And we are aggressively in addition to that, replacing some of our aging assets throughout North America.

另外，JOC剛才也提到的最後一點是：疫情的後續影響，以及過去幾年佛羅里達與路易斯安那遭遇的各種颶風，其影響比我們原先預期更難消化。我想這並不罕見，不只我們，其他產業我們也聽到類似情況。因此我們正投入相當大一部分的維持性資本支出（sustaining capital），以恢復一些在疫情與颶風期間被打亂、且已被歷史驗證的歲修週期（turnaround cycles）。此外，我們也正積極汰換北美各地一些老舊資產。

And when we couple all of that from an asset base with the better technology that our global digital acceleration investments that we've talked about are coming to bear as well as some other internal organization realignment that we've done, we should see even better proactive managing of maintenance of our equipment and onboarding and training of some of our key personnel, all of that leading to improved reliability and productivity.

當我們把上述資產面的措施，與我們先前談到的全球數位加速投資所帶來的更佳技術結合起來，再加上我們已完成的一些內部組織調整，我們應該能更主動地管理設備維護，以及關鍵人員的到職培訓與訓練；這些都將帶來更高的可靠性與生產力。

So to close and get to your point, we expect to see production volumes significantly improve next year from the last 2 years and return to historical run rate levels at that $2 million a quarter in the back half of 2024.

所以總結並回到你的重點，我們預期明年的產量將較過去兩年顯著改善，並在2024年下半年回到歷史運轉率水準，也就是每季200萬噸。

Thank you -- and our next question today comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs.

謝謝——我們今天的下一個問題來自Goldman Sachs的Adam Samuelson。

I want to come back to potash and Mosaic's own kind of production outlook. And I just want to be clear on this year, the company has -- especially in the third quarter, you've taken out -- your sales have exceeded your own production by about 575,000 tonnes. Now last year, you sold more than -- you produced more than you sold, but you've worked down a pretty healthy amount of your own inventories. You're calling for a sequential uplift in sales volumes in the fourth quarter, which would be at a level that really the company has really never hit on a quarterly basis, but I know Esterhazy has been expanded.

我想回到鉀肥以及Mosaic自身的產量展望。我想先確認一下：今年公司——特別是在第三季——你們的銷量比自家產量多了大約57.5萬噸。去年則相反，你們的產量高於銷量，但你們已經消化了相當可觀的自有庫存。你們預期第四季銷量將季增（sequential uplift），其水準將達到公司在單一季度幾乎從未達到過的程度，不過我知道Esterhazy已經擴產。

But I guess as we -- going back to some earlier lines of questioning, why couldn't -- rather than JOC, you alluded to logistics constraints being a real challenge for Mosaic to operate at higher volumes. Why wouldn't the natural investment for Canpotex be to increase its logistics capability and alternative port infrastructure, maybe away from the West Coast that could kind of provide some risk mitigation to winter weather that would allow the company and your Canpotex partner to produce more consistently and reliably at higher rates because Colonsay might be your higher cost mine, but it's not high cost really in the context of the global market.

但我想，回到先前的一些提問脈絡，為什麼不能——與其透過 JOC，你提到物流限制是 Mosaic 在更高產量下營運的一項真正挑戰。那麼 Canpotex 最自然的投資，為什麼不會是提升其物流能力與替代港口基礎設施，也許避開西岸，從而對冬季天候提供一些風險緩解，讓公司以及你們的 Canpotex 夥伴能以更高的速率更一致、更可靠地生產？因為 Colonsay 可能是你們成本較高的礦，但就全球市場的脈絡而言，其實也不算高成本。

Thanks, Adam. You make great points there. Let me start by saying, Canpotex has greatly improved their logistics capabilities through rail infrastructure improvements in our facility in Vancouver, our facility in Portland has been expanded. We have maximized or optimized our use -- their use, I'd say there because it's -- it is an independent entity, their use of the, I would say, John's port and the use of Thunder Bay. So we are sending as Canpotex significant volumes, both to the East Coast and the West Coast, and that allows us to deal with things like the port strikes and whatnot.

謝謝你，Adam。你提出了很好的觀點。讓我先說，Canpotex 已透過鐵路基礎設施改善，大幅提升其物流能力；我們在溫哥華的設施、以及波特蘭的設施都已擴建。我們已將——我應該說是他們的使用——因為它——它是一個獨立實體——他們對我會說是 John 的港口以及 Thunder Bay 的使用，做到了最大化或最佳化。因此，我們以 Canpotex 的名義向東岸與西岸都運送了大量貨量，這也讓我們能應對像是港口罷工之類的情況。

My only point there is a limit to what you can move and how fast you can grow. We've probably grown Canpotex over the years from, let's say, 10 million, 10.5 million tonnes to 13 million to 14 million tonnes. So if you look at it from that perspective, Canpotex has actually done a pretty darn good job. And I can tell you that under the leadership of Ken Seitz and continued under the leadership of Gord McKenzie, Canpotex has taken some real strides to solidify their markets, to improve their logistic capability.

我唯一想表達的是，你能移動的量以及你能成長的速度是有上限的。這些年來，我們大概把 Canpotex 從，比如說 1,000 萬、1,050 萬公噸，提升到 1,300 萬到 1,400 萬公噸。所以從這個角度看，Canpotex 其實做得相當不錯。我也可以告訴你，在 Ken Seitz 的領導下，以及在 Gord McKenzie 持續的領導下，Canpotex 已採取一些實質步伐來鞏固其市場、提升其物流能力。

My point there is not to say that we haven't been doing a lot on that end. It's to say that we can't ignore those as real limitations to how fast you can possibly grow and how fast you can respond to step changes or disruptions in the international market. And then finally, of course, you're relying on Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Railways, who from time to time have issues as well.

我在這裡的重點不是說我們在那一端沒有做很多，而是說，我們不能忽視這些作為你能多快成長、以及你能多快回應國際市場階段性變化或中斷的真實限制。最後，當然，你也得仰賴加拿大國家鐵路（Canadian National）與加拿大太平洋鐵路（Canadian Pacific），而他們也會不時出現一些問題。

And our next question today comes from Aron Ceccarelli with Berenberg.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Berenberg 的 Aron Ceccarelli。

I would like to go back to potash. Despite your strong sales volume for outlook for Q4, your pricing outlook is relatively muted, as you said. At the same time, Nutriens flagged that Russia is possibly coming back a little bit faster than originally anticipated. There's a contract with China in Canpotex's expiring if I'm correct at the end of the year. My question is what could really prevent us to see a contract with China next year with Canpotex between Canpotex and China to be below $307 per ton?

我想回到鉀肥。儘管你們對第四季的銷售量展望很強，但如你所說，你們的價格展望相對保守。同時，Nutrien 提到俄羅斯可能比原先預期更快一些回歸。若我沒記錯，Canpotex 與中國的合約將在年底到期。我的問題是：明年 Canpotex 與中國之間的新合約，究竟有什麼因素能真正阻止其價格低於每噸 307 美元？

Yes. Okay, Aron, thank you. Look, as we look forward on this, if we are back at the 70 million tonnes, which we expect the demand to be, there will be room for the Russians. The Russians will continue to export across the years by rail, Belarus will continue to export by rail into China. The seaborne product will have to continue because China is actually buying record amounts of potash as they need for their growth of their markets. So I've always said and even our Chinese customers fully agree that the Chinese customers need Canpotex and Canpotex needs are Chinese customers.

是的。好的，Aron，謝謝。你看，當我們往前看，如果需求回到我們預期的 7,000 萬公噸，那麼市場會有俄羅斯的空間。俄羅斯將持續多年透過鐵路出口；白俄羅斯也會持續透過鐵路向中國出口。海運產品也必須持續，因為中國實際上正在購買創紀錄數量的鉀肥，以支撐其市場成長所需。我一直說，而且我們的中國客戶也完全同意：中國客戶需要 Canpotex，而 Canpotex 也需要我們的中國客戶。

So it is one of those situations where, yes, there's always tension as you try to build -- get to the final contract, and it matters what the level of inventory sitting on the ground is in China, what their demand is at the time. And there's always a holdout to the last possible moment. But in the end, you come up with a contract, which is as close as we can to the market. And that's a -- they're very informed buyers and our Canpotex marketers are very informed marketers. So you normally come up with a pretty good balance.

所以這是一種情況：是的，當你試圖敲定——達成最終合約時，總會有拉鋸；而且這取決於中國當地堆置的庫存水位、以及當時的需求。通常也總會有人撐到最後一刻。但最終，你會達成一份合約，盡可能貼近市場。這——他們是非常精明的買方，而我們 Canpotex 的行銷人員也非常專業。因此通常能取得相當不錯的平衡。

In terms of whether we can repeat the $307 contract really depends on how things look as you move into 2024. The relevance of the seaborne trade is lower today than it was before because of the these rail imports and because of the Qinghai Lake production, which is taking up a good chunk of their production. But the point I make there is the issue will not be Russians' new production coming on or anything like that. It will be how does the global market look? What is the price comparators for Brazil, for Indonesia, Malaysia, China possibly? And again, what's their inventory position and when are they ready to come to the table. So it's pretty early days, but that market will always have a fairly complicated dynamic.

至於是否能重複 307 美元的合約，真的取決於你進入 2024 年時的情勢。海運貿易的重要性今天比以前低，因為有這些鐵路進口，以及青海湖的產量，已占了他們相當大一部分供應。但我在這裡要說的是，問題不會是俄羅斯新增產能投放之類的事情，而是全球市場看起來如何？巴西、印尼、馬來西亞、可能還有中國的價格比較基準是什麼？以及同樣地，他們的庫存位置如何、何時準備好坐下來談。所以現在還算早，但那個市場一直都會有相當複雜的動態。

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

謝謝。那我們今天的下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I think Belaruskali over the past 2 months has been shipping at a little bit more than 900,000 tonnes per month, which means that they're shipping at an annualized rate now of about 11 million tonnes. And so I was wondering why you thought next year, they might be 3 million tonnes below their normal output?

我認為 Belaruskali 在過去兩個月的出貨量略高於每月 90 萬公噸，這表示他們目前的年化出貨率大約是 1,100 萬公噸。因此我想問，為什麼你認為明年他們可能會比正常產出少 300 萬公噸？

Yes. Thanks, Jeff. I think the simple thing there is we don't know where exactly that is coming from. Is that product that's been built up at a port waiting to go out. I think you can't look at 3 months, particularly 3 months of summer and compare to whole year.

是的。謝謝，Jeff。我想最簡單的原因是，我們不知道那到底是從哪裡來的。那是不是在港口堆積、等待出運的產品？我認為你不能只看三個月，尤其是三個月的夏季，就拿來和全年相比。

We know that those ports have issues in the winter with respect to freezing and unavailability, et cetera, et cetera. So as we look at -- whether we look at Belarus, Belaruskali or whether we look at the Russian producers, their seasonal shipments are never as high as their summer shipments. So our expectation is that's what they'll do. And again, not unlike Canada, it gets pretty darn cold in the winter around that area. And shipping by rail, that kind of distance, it can be pretty challenging. You're going to get all kinds of issues. And so our expectation is, yes, they may be able to do it in the summer, but we would discount that or at least risk adjust that for the winter months.

我們知道那些港口在冬季會有結冰、無法使用等問題，等等等等。所以當我們看——不論是看白俄羅斯、Belaruskali，或是看俄羅斯生產商，他們的季節性出貨量從來不會像夏季出貨那麼高。因此我們的預期是他們會是那樣。而且同樣地，跟加拿大一樣，那一帶冬天也會非常冷。以那樣的距離用鐵路運輸，可能相當具挑戰性，會遇到各種問題。因此我們的預期是：是的，他們夏天也許做得到，但我們會對冬季月份把那個數字打折，或至少做風險調整。

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to the management team for any closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回管理團隊，請他們做任何結語。

Okay. So to conclude our call, before I reiterate our key messages, let me just say, I've dealt with many of you now for 15 years. It has been a pleasure I was hoping you'd be a little easier on me on my last day, but you clearly weren't going to do that. So I thank you for your honesty anyway. In terms of Mosaic and the business as it goes forward, I continue to believe that we are a well-positioned company at a great time in a great market. And I think Bruce and team will do very well going forward. But let me just conclude at least this quarter.

好的。那麼在結束我們的電話會議之前，在我重申我們的關鍵訊息之前，先讓我說，我已經和你們許多人打交道 15 年了。這一直是一種榮幸。我原本希望你們在我最後一天能對我稍微手下留情一點，但顯然你們不打算這麼做。所以無論如何，我也感謝你們的坦誠。就 Mosaic 以及未來業務而言，我仍然相信我們是一家在絕佳時點、絕佳市場中、定位良好的公司。我也認為 Bruce 和團隊未來會做得很好。但至少讓我先就本季做個結語。

The ag fundamentals continue to be compelling. Growing demand for grains and oilseeds just bodes really well for the future. Farmers around the world continue to have the incentive to maximize production. And that, in turn, leads to strong fertilizer demand. and we expect tight supply and demand dynamics for both of our products for the foreseeable future. Now Mosaic as a company is in excellent position to benefit from these market dynamics. Our balance sheet is strong, we're investing in the business and returning capital to shareholders.

農業基本面仍然相當有吸引力。穀物與油籽需求的成長，確實為未來帶來非常好的前景。全球農民仍然有動機將產量最大化。而這反過來帶動強勁的肥料需求。我們也預期在可預見的未來，我們兩項產品的供需動態都將維持緊俏。現在，Mosaic 作為一家公司，處於極佳位置以受益於這些市場動態。我們的資產負債表強健，我們正在投資業務並向股東返還資本。

And with that, I'm going to sign off, pass the baton to Bruce and wish them the best in the future and for their earnings calls. Thank you all very much.

說到這裡，我就要告別了，把接力棒交給 Bruce，並祝他們未來一切順利，也祝他們的財報電話會議順利。非常感謝各位。

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝您，先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的簡報。您現在可以掛斷電話線，祝您有美好的一天。