美盛公司 (MOS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Mosaic Company's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). Please note that this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Mosaic Company 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，該事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jason Tremblay. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給 Jason Tremblay。請繼續。

Thank you and welcome to our fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Opening comments will be provided by Bruce Bodine, President and Chief Executive Officer. Jenny Wong, Executive Vice President, Commercial, will then cover the market update. Luciano Siani Pires, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will review financial results and capital allocation progress. We will then open the floor for questions.

謝謝您，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。總裁兼執行長布魯斯·博丁 (Bruce Bodine) 將致開幕詞。隨後，商業執行副總裁 Jenny Wong 將介紹市場最新動態。執行副總裁兼財務長 Luciano Siani Pires 將審查財務結果和資本配置進度。然後我們將開始回答問題。

We will be making forward-looking statements during this conference call. The statements include but are not limited to statements about future financial and operating results. They are based on management's beliefs and expectations as of today's date and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties.

我們將在本次電話會議中做出前瞻性陳述。這些聲明包括但不限於有關未來財務和經營結果的聲明。它們基於管理層今天的信念和期望，並受重大風險和不確定性的影響。

Actual results may differ materially from projected results. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our press release published today and in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

實際結果可能與預測結果有重大差異。我們今天發布的新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中包含了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素。

We will also be presenting certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our press release and performance data also contain important information on these non-GAAP measures.

我們也將介紹某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的新聞稿和績效數據也包含有關這些非公認會計準則指標的重要資訊。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Bruce.

現在我想把電話轉給布魯斯。

Good morning and thanks for joining our call. I'd like to start by welcoming Luciano to his first call as Mosaic's CFO. We've known him for a long time through his service on Mosaic's Board, and we're thrilled to have him on our team.

早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議。首先，我歡迎 Luciano 參加他作為 Mosaic 財務長的首次電話會議。我們透過他在 Mosaic 董事會任職而認識他很久了，我們很高興他能加入我們的團隊。

We're taking a different approach this quarter. During this first part of our call, I'll cover our high-level business performance and strategic progress, and Jenny Wang will give you an update on the markets, followed by Luciano, providing more context on our financial performance and capital allocation strategy. After that, we'll take your questions.

本季我們採取了不同的方法。在我們電話會議的第一部分，我將介紹我們的高層業務績效和策略進展，Jenny Wang 將向您介紹市場最新情況，隨後 Luciano 將提供有關我們的財務績效和資本配置策略的更多背景資訊。之後，我們將回答您的問題。

I'll start with our key messages for today. First, agriculture markets have improved, and we expect constructive ag and fertilizer fundamentals in 2025. Second, at Mosaic, we are making operational and strategic progress, and the business is positioned well to benefit from good markets this year. And finally, our work to shed non-core assets and reallocate capital is taking shape.

我首先要講的是今天的關鍵訊息。首先，農業市場已經改善，我們預期 2025 年農業和化肥基本面將呈現正面態勢。其次，在 Mosaic，我們正在取得營運和策略進展，今年業務將受益於良好的市場環境。最後，我們剝離非核心資產、重新分配資本的工作正在初見成效。

To cover the numbers, fourth quarter net income was $169 million and adjusted EBITDA came in at $594 million. We saw strong phosphate prices and stripping margins, solid potash performance despite low prices, and excellent underlying business performance in Brazil.

具體來說，第四季淨收入為 1.69 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 5.94 億美元。我們看到磷酸鹽價格和剝離利潤強勁，鉀肥價格低迷但業績穩健，巴西基礎業務表現優異。

Let's talk about the segments first. In potash, the Esterhazy complex, which is the world's largest potash mine and among the most efficient, continues to generate strong cash flow across the commodity cycle, and we are continuing to optimize it. Our Belle Plaine potash mine delivered a 100% operating rate and record production in 2024.

我們先來討論一下片段。在鉀肥方面，埃斯特哈齊鉀肥綜合設施是全球最大、最高效的鉀肥礦之一，在整個商品週期內持續產生強勁的現金流，我們也持續優化。我們的 Belle Plaine 鉀礦在 2024 年實現了 100% 的運作率和創紀錄的產量。

We resolved the electrical issues we experienced in the third quarter, and we're operating at full milling and hoisting capacity now which will let us continue to drive costs down. It clearly benefits us to produce every ton we can at Esterhazy, and we're investing to do just that.

我們解決了第三季遇到的電氣問題，現在我們正在全力銑削和提升能力，這將使我們能夠繼續降低成本。在埃斯特哈齊生產每一噸鋼材顯然對我們有利，我們也正在進行投資以實現這一目標。

Last year, we finished a project to increase our compaction capacity by 500,000 tons, and this year, we expect to complete a hydrofloat project to provide an additional 400,000 tons of capacity per year. We expect potash demand to remain strong given affordability and the trends in crop prices combined with supply reductions caused by recent news coming out of Laos, China, Belarus, and Russia.

去年，我們完成了一個將壓實能力提高 50 萬噸的項目，今年，我們預計將完成一個水浮項目，每年額外提供 40 萬噸的壓實能力。我們預計，考慮到價格承受能力和農作物價格趨勢，以及最近來自寮國、中國、白俄羅斯和俄羅斯的新聞導致的供應減少，鉀肥需求將保持強勁。

There's a lot going on in geopolitics that could impact potash markets. There's quite a bit of uncertainty around Canadian tariffs, and we're watching that situation closely. Even accounting for the impact of tariffs, potash prices will remain affordable. Therefore, we expect no major demand destruction.

地緣政治中的許多事件都可能影響鉀肥市場。加拿大關稅存在相當多的不確定性，我們正在密切關注局勢。即使考慮到關稅的影響，鉀肥價格仍保持在可負擔的範圍內。因此，我們預計需求不會遭受重大破壞。

The potential resolution of the war in Ukraine would have very little impact to the global potash supply. The same goes for Belarus sanctions, very little impact on supply. Jenny will give you more detail about these dynamics in a few minutes.

烏克蘭戰爭的潛在解決對全球鉀肥供應影響甚微。對白俄羅斯的製裁也是如此，對供應的影響很小。幾分鐘後，珍妮 (Jenny) 會向您詳細介紹這些動態。

In phosphate, supply remains tight and demand remains very strong, which has led to prices and stripping margins remaining significantly above historic levels for the past several years with no end in sight. I should note that we have secured our long-term ammonia supply. We signed the last of three supply contracts late last year, so we have locked up reliable supply at competitive rates.

磷酸鹽的供應仍然緊張，而需求仍然強勁，這導致磷酸鹽的價格和剝離利潤在過去幾年中一直遠高於歷史水平，並且看不到盡頭。我應該指出，我們已經確保了長期的氨供應。我們在去年年底簽署了最後一份供應合同，因此我們以有競爭力的價格鎖定了可靠的供應。

Restoring our US phosphate production to historical levels remains a top priority. Fourth quarter production was lower than expected because of a challenging recovery from Hurricaneses Helene and Milton. Most of our storm related downtime was in the fourth quarter.

將美國磷酸鹽產量恢復到歷史水平仍然是首要任務。由於颶風海倫和米爾頓過後恢復過程艱難，第四季度產量低於預期。我們因風暴而停工的大部分時間都發生在第四季度。

We've often said the pathway to higher levels is not straight up. Early this year, we have turnarounds at Bartow and New Wales, and we have more work to do to improve asset reliability in Florida and Louisiana. To this end, we are accelerating capital spending to address these issues and expect that work to be finished by the middle of the year.

我們常說，通往更高層次的道路並不是筆直的。今年年初，我們在巴托和新威爾斯州進行了周轉，我們還有許多工作要做，以提高佛羅裡達州和路易斯安那州的資產可靠性。為此，我們正在加快資本支出來解決這些問題，並預計這項工作將在今年年中完成。

Overall, we expect our production volumes to improve throughout the year and reach 7.2 million tons to 7.6 million tons for the year. Our business in Brazil is performing very well, even with the market and credit headwinds. Our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA for the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment of 82 million shows strong underlying business performance.

總體而言，我們預計全年產量將有所提高，達到 720 萬噸至 760 萬噸。儘管面臨市場和信貸阻力，我們在巴西的業務仍然表現良好。我們第四季的 Mosaic Fertilizantes 部門調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 8,200 萬，顯示出強勁的基礎業務表現。

Our margins in Brazil are healthy. Our distribution margin was at the high end of the annual normalized range, and our production cost per ton trended down in the fourth quarter. With the constructive market dynamics we see ahead in 2025, we feel good about Mosaic's business in Brazil.

我們在巴西的利潤率很高。我們的分銷利潤率處於年度正常範圍的高端，並且我們的每噸生產成本在第四季度呈下降趨勢。由於我們看到 2025 年市場將呈現積極的發展勢頭，因此我們對 Mosaic 在巴西的業務充滿信心。

Our solid operating performance is supported by good cost discipline. We're making good progress toward our cost reduction targets, but I'll leave the details to Luciano.

良好的成本控制支撐了我們穩健的營運績效。我們在實現成本削減目標方面取得了良好進展，但我將把具體細節留給盧西亞諾。

Now I'll talk about our strategic progress. We've told you before that we're analyzing our facilities on the basis of their returns on capital. The outcomes of that work are allowing us to find better owners of underperforming assets and redeploy capital for better returns.

現在我講一下我們的策略進展。我們之前告訴過您，我們正在根據資本回報率來分析我們的設施。這項工作的成果使我們能夠找到表現不佳的資產的更好的所有者，並重新部署資本以獲得更好的回報。

We've already announced several deals, including the pending sale of our Patos de Minas site in Brazil and the conclusion of the modern transaction. That deal gave us a transparent value for our investment, which is about $1.5 billion as of today, as well as a $522 million gain in a long-term capital redeployment possibility.

我們已經宣布了幾項交易，包括即將出售的位於巴西的帕圖斯迪米納斯工廠以及現代交易的完成。這筆交易為我們的投資提供了透明的價值，截至今天約為 15 億美元，同時也為我們帶來了 5.22 億美元的長期資本重新部署收益。

We have other moves in the works, including our pursuit of strategic alternatives for our potash mine in Carlsbad, New Mexico. We're not just focused on making our portfolios stronger, we're also investing in our strengths and growing in our core business in new areas.

我們也正在籌備其他舉措，包括為位於新墨西哥州卡爾斯巴德的鉀礦尋找策略替代方案。我們不僅致力於增強我們的投資組合，我們還在投資我們的優勢並在新的領域發展我們的核心業務。

In addition to the compaction and hydrofloat project I mentioned earlier, our new 1 million ton blending plant in Palmeirante, Brazil is almost finished.

除了我之前提到的壓實和水浮項目之外，我們位於巴西帕爾梅蘭特的新的100萬噸混合廠也接近完工。

Our newest growth engine, Mosaic Biosciences, is accelerating. We doubled revenues and acreage on which our products were applied in 2024, and we expect a similar growth rate in 2025. We'll have a lot more to say on Mosaic Biosciences at our Analyst Day in New York on March 18. I hope you'll join us whether in person or online.

我們最新的成長引擎 Mosaic Biosciences 正在加速發展。2024年，我們的收入和產品應用面積將翻倍，預計2025年的成長率也將相似。我們將於 3 月 18 日在紐約舉行的分析師日上就 Mosaic Biosciences 進行更多討論。我希望您能親自或在線加入我們。

Now I'll ask Jenny to give you her thoughts on agriculture and fertilizer markets. Jenny.

現在我請珍妮談談她對農業和化肥市場的看法。珍妮。

Thank you, Bruce. We expect 2025 to be a good year for agricultural commodities.

謝謝你，布魯斯。我們預計 2025 年將是農產品豐收的一年。

Let's start with crops. Fundamentals are strong for most crops around the world. Strong global corn demand in 2024 is leading to expectations of a much lower stocks to use ratio, which in turn has led to rising corn prices since last September. So these prices have also moved off their lows since last year.

讓我們從農作物開始。全球大多數農作物的基本面都很強勁。2024 年全球玉米需求強勁，導致預期庫存使用比將大幅下降，進而導致自去年 9 月以來玉米價格上漲。因此，這些價格自去年以來也已脫離低點。

Animal protein markets remain very strong and are expected to continue to drive robust demand for grain and oil seed products in feed regions. In addition, palm oil prices have stayed in a high range for some time now. All in all, the world's farmers have strong financial incentive to maximize yield in 2025. Of course, that bodes well for phosphate and potash demand.

動物性蛋白質市場依然強勁，預計將持續推動飼料地區對穀物和油籽產品的強勁需求。此外，棕櫚油價格近期也維持高位。總而言之，全球農民擁有強大的經濟誘因來最大限度提高2025年的產量。當然，這對磷酸鹽和鉀肥的需求來說是個好兆頭。

First, the phosphate. Higher crop prices mean phosphate will be more affordable. We believe demand will remain very strong. And remember, phosphate fertilizer demand is driven by a combination of factors, including rising oil seed production with the increase in global biofuel demand.

首先，磷酸鹽。農作物價格上漲意味著磷酸鹽將更便宜。我們相信需求仍將保持強勁。請記住，磷肥的需求受到多種因素的推動，包括油籽產量的上升和全球生物燃料需求的增加。

At the same time, rising use of phosphate for battery production has created another pool on phosphate. With limited new phosphate production coming into the market over the next few years, and with ongoing Chinese export restrictions, we expect supply to remain tight and prices and stripping margins to remain elevated by historical standards.

同時，電池生產中磷酸鹽的使用量不斷增加，也形成了另一個磷酸鹽池。由於未來幾年進入市場的磷酸鹽新產量有限，且中國將繼續限制出口，我們預計供應將保持緊張，價格和剝離利潤仍將處於歷史高點。

Regarding stripping margins in the near term, we anticipate that they will remain attractive even with sulfur prices increasing as ammonia prices are expected to come to ease. And as a matter of fact, March spot ammonia price was concluded at $40 below from the last month.

至於短期內的剝離利潤率，我們預計，即使硫磺價格上漲，由於合成氨價格預計將回落，其仍將保持吸引力。事實上，3月現貨氨價格較上月下跌了40美元。

In potash, as Bruce mentioned, global demand has been strong and we expect that to continue. Palm oil prices are supporting another strong year for potash application in Malaysia and Indonesia. Well, Chinese demand is expected to remain solid after two consecutive record shipment years in 2023 and 2024, with volume topping 18 million tons and 190 million tons respectively. Bear in mind that shipment averaged just 15 million tons in the preceding five years in China.

正如布魯斯所提到的，鉀肥的全球需求一直強勁，我們預計這種需求將持續下去。棕櫚油價格支撐馬來西亞和印尼鉀肥應用再創強勁成長年。預計在 2023 年和 2024 年連續兩年創下出貨量記錄後，中國需求將保持強勁，出貨量分別超過 1,800 萬噸和 1.9 億噸。請記住，過去五年中國的平均出貨量僅為 1,500 萬噸。

In addition, Brazil has walked through much of its inventory through the second corn crop. And we have seen very strong demand for potash in the soybean season. As a result, we expect 2025 shipments to set another record for potash. Supply is likely to be more constrained this year than last, due to the two largest producers in China, guiding to lower output in 2025, and both Belaruskali and Uralkali announced that they would produce fewer tons.

此外，巴西的第二季玉米作物已經消耗了大部分庫存。我們發現大豆種植季節對鉀肥的需求非常強勁。因此，我們預計 2025 年鉀肥出貨量將再創紀錄。由於中國兩大生產商預計 2025 年產量將下降，而白俄羅斯鉀肥公司和烏拉爾鉀肥公司都宣布將減少產量，因此今年的供應可能比去年更加緊張。

Additionally, there is significant uncertainty as to how much additional production will be available from Laos, given continued issues with my inflows and the sinkholes. As a result, we believe potash market are improving or very constructive.

此外，由於我的流入和天坑問題持續存在，寮國將提供多少額外產量有很大的不確定性。因此，我們相信鉀肥市場正在改善或非常具有建設性。

Now I will pass the call over to Luciano for insight into our financial performance.

現在我將把電話轉給盧西亞諾，以了解我們的財務表現。

Well, thank you, Jenny, and thanks to you, Bruce, for your warm welcome. So I've been CFO of Mosaic now for two months, responsible for Finance Strategy, IT. Well, coming in, I think Mosaic is mature, has a clear strategic direction, strong financial foundation. I can give you several examples. The balance sheet is a good place, BBB where it's most efficient to be. We have lots of funding options in place. Share count has been reduced by almost 20% over the past years, something that maybe the market doesn't fully appreciate.

好吧，謝謝你，珍妮，也謝謝你，布魯斯，對我們的熱情歡迎。我現在已擔任 Mosaic 的財務長兩個月，負責財務策略和 IT。嗯，我認為 Mosaic 已經成熟，具有明確的策略方向和強大的財務基礎。我可以舉幾個例子。資產負債表是個好地方，BBB 是效率最高的地方。我們有很多融資選擇。過去幾年裡，股票數量減少了近 20%，市場或許還沒有完全意識到這一點。

And yes, after a few years of cost inflation, I believe there's good momentum in the cost control initiatives and the $150 million target, I'm confident we will reach it and we'll discuss this in a moment.

是的，經過幾年的成本上漲，我相信成本控制措施和 1.5 億美元的目標勢頭良好，我相信我們一定能實現這一目標，我們稍後會討論這個問題。

Capital expenditures are also in control. Mosaic delivered on its commitment to reduce CapEx by about $200 million last year. This year, we're flat CapEx to address some reliability challenges, but we will continue to reduce CapEx in future years. I'm privileged to step in with so much already accomplished.

資本支出也受到控制。去年，Mosaic 兌現了減少資本支出約 2 億美元的承諾。今年，我們的資本支出持平，以應對一些可靠性挑戰，但未來幾年我們將繼續減少資本支出。我很榮幸能夠介入並完成這麼多工作。

I'll give you some detailed comments and color on some of the most meaningful numbers on our financial statements and performance. This is a little new, but my goal is for you to be able to understand the drivers of our performance and to model it going forward. So I'll start my comments with net income.

我將對我們的財務報表和業績中的一些最有意義的數字給出一些詳細的評論和解釋。這有點新，但我的目標是讓您能夠了解我們表現的驅動因素並對其進行建模。因此我將從淨收入開始我的評論。

Obviously it's complicated, lots of non-recurring events. First one, we exchange our stake in the MWSPC joint venture or the shares of Ma'aden, and you see a $522 million gain on this one. And this is the difference between the market value of the shares on the date of the closing to the book value of our former stake on the joint venture.

顯然它很複雜，有很多非重複事件。首先，我們交換 MWSPC 合資企業的股份或 Ma'aden 的股份，你會看到這次收益為 5.22 億美元。這是收盤日股票的市場價值與我們以前在合資企業中所持股份的帳面價值之間的差額。

But then you have another gain of $28 million, and this is now the increase in the market price of the stock between the closing date and December 31. And going forward, you will see the mark-to-market of the value of those shares reflected in our financials. So this is going to be recurring.

但隨後你又獲得了 2,800 萬美元的收益，這是收盤價與 12 月 31 日之間股票市場價格的漲幅。展望未來，您將在我們的財務報表中看到這些股票的市值反映。這種情況將會重複發生。

Net income was also impacted by this large balance sheet, $390 million foreign exchange loss in the fourth quarter which is in the notables' table in our press release. That comes from the intercompany loans from the US to Brazil and from the US to Canada. They're both denominated in US dollars.

淨收入也受到了這張龐大資產負債表的影響，第四季度的外匯損失為 3.9 億美元，這在我們新聞稿中的值得注意的表格中有所體現。這些資金來自美國向巴西和美國向加拿大提供的公司間貸款。它們都以美元計價。

And the issue is that the Brazilian real weakened a lot during the fourth quarter by 14%, worst performing currency in the world. And so the local Brazilian balance sheet debt also increased by a similar amount, and the Canadian dollar also weakened by 6%, so the Canadian balance sheet also faced a loss. So these negative effects were huge in the quarter. And they go up into the consolidated financial statements of Mosaic as a whole.

問題在於，巴西雷亞爾在第四季大幅貶值 14%，是全球表現最差的貨幣。因此巴西本土的資產負債表債務也增加了類似的金額，而加幣也貶值了6%，因此加拿大的資產負債表也面臨損失。因此，本季的負面影響非常巨大。並且它們都會被納入 Mosaic 整體的合併財務報表中。

Well, but this foreign exchange story also goes into the adjusted EBITDA performance of our businesses, and again, and most importantly into Mosaic fertility designs in Brazil. The Brazilian distribution business buys and sells finished product, and at any given time, we have open payables in dollars.

嗯，但這個外匯故事也影響到我們業務的調整後 EBITDA 表現，而且，最重要的是影響巴西的 Mosaic 生育設計。巴西分銷業務負責購買和銷售成品，在任何時候，我們都有美元未結應付款。

The payables now in Brazilians real are more expensive, and as we pay the obligations, we recognize the loss in EBITDA in the local income statement. The difference between the payables in the US dollar, the current exchange rates, which is more expensive, and the older one. This goes into EBITDA.

現在以巴西雷亞爾計算的應付款項更加昂貴，當我們償還債務時，我們會在當地損益表中確認 EBITDA 的損失。美元應付款項與現行匯率之間的差異，即哪個比較貴，哪個較舊。這將計入 EBITDA。

There are other smaller losses in FX hedging, and all in all, that reduced the adjusted EBITDA up for Brazil by $35 million in this quarter. And may continue to have around $20 million impact in the first quarter of '25 just because we still have and working through the old payables.

外匯對沖中還存在其他較小規模的損失，總體而言，導致本季巴西的調整後 EBITDA 減少了 3,500 萬美元。並且可能在 25 年第一季繼續產生約 2000 萬美元的影響，因為我們仍有舊應付款並正在處理中。

And why am I saying all of this? Because I want to call you the attention to the fact that our adjusted EBITDA for Brazil in the fourth quarter was $82 million. But that was after all these charges. So to see our underlying performance, you need to add back this $35 million loss. So instead of $82 million of adjusted EBITDA, we are in the $120 million territory.

我為什麼要說這些？因為我想讓你們注意，我們第四季巴西的調整後息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 8,200 萬美元。但那是在所有這些指控之後。因此，要了解我們的基本業績，你需要把這 3,500 萬美元的損失加回來。因此，我們的調整後 EBITDA 不是 8,200 萬美元，而是 1.2 億美元。

And once these payable things are gone, that's the number you're going to see printed from the second quarter of '25 onwards. So it's actually going to be even higher given the cost improvements ongoing.

一旦這些應付款項消失，這就是從 25 年第二季開始你將看到的數字。因此，考慮到持續的成本改進，這一數字實際上還會更高。

So why we're now into this $120 million-plus territory for EBITDA, for two factors. The first cost performance is really now strong. As part of the $150 million cost reduction program, we already captured $35 million recurring savings only in Brazil.

那為什麼我們現在的 EBITDA 會達到 1.2 億美元以上呢，有兩個原因。第一性價比確實現在很強。作為 1.5 億美元成本削減計劃的一部分，我們僅在巴西就已經實現了 3500 萬美元的經常性節約。

Just to give you some color, one initiative, for example, we changed the marine plans, we increased rock production, and we seized the importing phosphate rock, which is much more expensive. That only change reduces our operating costs in Brazil by $35 million to $40 million annually, and about $15 million was already captured in 2024.

只是為了給你一些說明，例如一項舉措，我們改變了海洋計劃，增加了岩石產量，並控制了進口磷酸鹽岩，這要昂貴得多。光是這項變更就使我們在巴西的營運成本每年減少 3,500 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元，其中 2024 年已可節省約 1,500 萬美元。

The other factor is now that the FX rate provides a tailwind in costs. So altogether, if you compare fourth quarter of '24 with fourth quarter of '23, you can see this in our performance data sheet which is in the website, phosphate rock costs are down 15% and phosphate conversion costs are down 23% in that period. So, very confident about going (technical difficulty) forward.

現在另一個因素是外匯匯率為成本提供了順風。因此，總的來說，如果將 24 年第四季與 23 年第四季進行比較，您可以在我們網站上的績效數據表中看到，磷酸鹽岩成本下降了 15%，磷酸鹽轉換成本下降了 23%。因此，我對克服（技術難度）未來充滿信心。

So one another highlight is SG&A. $497 million in 2024 is largely flat when you compare it to $501 million in 2023. But 2024 includes a $30 million loss on receivables. You remember, a significant Brazilian retailer that defaulted. So without this loss, SG&A would have been, like instead of $4 million less, would have been $34 million less or a 6% year over year reduction.

另一個亮點是銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)。與 2023 年的 5.01 億美元相比，2024 年的 4.97 億美元基本持平。但 2024 年的應收帳款損失為 3,000 萬美元。你記得，一家重要的巴西零售商違約了。因此，如果沒有這筆損失，銷售、一般及行政開支將不會減少 400 萬美元，而是減少 3,400 萬美元，或說年減 6%。

And considering other non-recurring, non-cash factors, we can say that $42 million have already been saved on intrinsic SG&A as part of the $150 million in cost savings. And by the way, we've got insurance on these $30 million dollar debt. So at some point, we expect to revert the majority of this loss and bad debt.

考慮到其他非經常性、非現金因素，我們可以說，在 1.5 億美元的成本節省中，固有銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）已經節省了 4,200 萬美元。順便說一句，我們已經為這 3000 萬美元的債務投了保。因此，在某個時候，我們希望挽回大部分損失和壞帳。

How about potash and phosphates. In potash, MOP costs have been largely flat, $65 to $75 a ton in the past four quarters. But it should edge down as we produce more tons from Esterhazy, which is our most efficient mine, and with the hydrofloat project coming online later this year.

鉀肥和磷酸鹽怎麼樣？鉀肥方面，過去四個季度，MOP成本基本上持平，為每噸65至75美元。但隨著我們最高效的埃斯特哈齊礦山產量不斷增加，以及水浮項目今年稍後上線，產量下降幅度應該會逐漸減少。

The margins will also improve as we make more granular products, which in average earn about $20 to $30 more than standard products. In phosphates, the costs actually increased in Q4 due to the plants being idle following the hurricanes we discussed. But the recovering volumes will -- in '25 will dilute the cost per ton.

隨著我們生產更多顆粒狀產品，利潤率也會提高，平均比標準產品多賺約 20 至 30 美元。就磷酸鹽而言，由於我們討論過的颶風過後工廠停工，第四季度的成本實際上有所增加。但產量的恢復將會在25年降低每噸的成本。

And we're already looking for more than $150 million in cost reductions, so we have this digital acceleration program that should bring about $70 million in benefit. Another $50 million is coming from a better mine plan and mass recovery at our Patrocinio and Araxa complex in Brazil.

我們已經在尋求減少1.5億美元的成本，因此我們制定了這個數位加速計劃，預計將帶來約7000萬美元的收益。另外 5000 萬美元來自我們位於巴西的 Patrocinio 和 Araxa 綜合設施的更好的礦山規劃和大規模回收。

And we will discuss all of this in detail, and we'll have additional news for you on our Analyst Day, upcoming on March 18, which I invite all of you to attend.

我們將詳細討論所有這些問題，並將在 3 月 18 日即將舉行的分析師日上為您帶來更多新聞，我邀請大家參加。

I'm sure we're going to be also discussing capital location in the Q&A, and I was very lucky to come in right in the middle of the conclusion of the $1.5 billion deal with Ma'aden shares. And I actually got my hands and worked in the $125 million Patos deal. I'm fully committed with the program to reallocate capital to the benefits of shareholders.

我相信我們還將在問答環節討論資本位置問題，而且我很幸運能夠在 15 億美元 Ma'aden 股份交易完成之際介入。我確實參與了價值 1.25 億美元的 Patos 交易。我完全致力於重新分配資本以造福股東的計劃。

And one final note, we've decided to discontinue our monthly price and volume releases. We've received some feedback from you that these releases were not particularly helpful, more noise than signal, so we're discontinuing it.

最後要說明的是，我們決定停止每月發布價格和數量。我們收到了一些回饋，認為這些版本並沒有特別的幫助，更多的是噪音而不是訊號，所以我們將停止它。

So with that, I want to trun the call back to you, Bruce.

因此，我想把電話轉給你，布魯斯。

Thank you, Luciano. To summarize, Mosaic delivered a solid year despite considerable market weather and operational challenges. Our outlook for 2025 is positive. With our improving operational performance, lower cost profiles, and excellent financial foundation, Mosaic is well positioned to benefit from the strong market conditions we see ahead.

謝謝你，盧西亞諾。總而言之，儘管市場環境嚴峻、營運挑戰重重，Mosaic 本年度依然業績穩健。我們對2025年的展望是樂觀的。憑藉著不斷提升的營運績效、較低的成本狀況和優秀的財務基礎，Mosaic 完全有能力從我們預見的未來強勁的市場環境中獲益。

Now, operator, we'd like to take questions from the audience.

接線員，現在我們想回答觀眾的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯·帕金森（Chris Parkinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

Great, thank you so much. In your press release, you mentioned it's -- your belief that 700,000 tons are sacrificed in '24 for your processed phosphate, and you mentioned some of this in your prepared remarks. So that would leave you about 7.1 at the midpoint for '25. So at the midpoint for '25 guidance, it's about 300,000 tons.

太好了，非常感謝。在您的新聞稿中，您提到——您認為 24 年為加工磷酸鹽而犧牲了 70 萬噸，並且您在準備好的發言中提到了其中的一些內容。因此，25 年的中點約為 7.1。因此，25 年指引值的中間值約為 30 萬噸。

Wouldn't just the phos acid turnarounds get you to that number anyway, or what's the best way to think about that? And if you could throw in some half on half comments, that would be very helpful. Thank you so much.

無論如何，僅磷酸的轉變不會讓您達到這個數字嗎，或者最好的思考方式是什麼？如果您能提出一些意見，那將會非常有幫助。太感謝了。

Thanks, Chris. Yes, about 700,000 tonnes due to kind of those extraordinary events due to weather and some other things that we had to deal with in 2024, get you to the kind of 7, 7.1, as you said.

謝謝，克里斯。是的，由於天氣等特殊事件以及我們在 2024 年必須處理的一些其他因素，大約有 70 萬噸的排放量，正如您所說，達到了 7、7.1 的水平。

The phos acid turnaround, it really is the sulfur turnarounds that we've been focused on for the last several years coming out of the pandemic that really got upside-down on a sequencing. And we've been talking about that and the catch-up work, and I think that might be where you're going, Chris, if I understand right.

磷酸的轉變，其實是硫的轉變，過去幾年我們一直關注的是硫的轉變，而疫情爆發後，硫的序列真的被顛覆了。我們一直在談論這件事和追趕工作，如果我理解正確的話，克里斯，我想這可能就是你要去的地方。

So yes, sulfuric is back, as we've said, kind of on those three-year turnaround cycles. But what we found as we went into December -- and actually, if you were to add in kind of the hurricane impact towards our December production, we would have had one of the best production years -- quarters in maybe the last two years. So we had a chance to kind of put the accelerator down given that some of our sulfuric issues are largely behind us.

是的，正如我們所說的，硫酸又回來了，有點像三年的周轉週期。但當我們進入 12 月時發現——實際上，如果將颶風對我們 12 月生產的影響也算上的話，我們將會迎來生產狀況最好的年份之一——可能是過去兩年中產量最好的幾個季度之一。因此，考慮到我們的一些硫磺問題已基本解決，我們有機會放鬆警惕。

And we did find a couple of bottlenecks in phos acid, particularly at New Wales, that we need to address. And part of the reason that our CapEx is staying flat this year is we're putting a little more money in the first half of the year to deal with some of these lingering effects on downstream of sulfuric in some of our facilities here in Central Florida and Louisiana.

我們確實發現了磷酸中存在一些瓶頸，特別是在新威爾斯州，我們需要解決這些問題。我們的資本支出今年保持穩定的部分原因是，我們在上半年投入了更多資金，用於應對位於中佛羅裡達州和路易斯安那州的一些工廠的硫酸下游產生的一些揮之不去的影響。

So that is maybe the half-over-half difference that you're talking about, Chris, and what to look for. So as we announced, quarter one was always going to be kind of a challenged quarter given the Bartow turnaround, which should be wrapping up next week.

所以，這可能是您所說的一半對一半的差異，克里斯，以及需要尋找的東西。因此，正如我們所宣布的，考慮到 Bartow 的轉變，第一季始終是一個充滿挑戰的季度，而 Bartow 的轉變應該會在下週結束。

And then we've got some other turnaround work that was in our normal schedule. But now we're accelerating forward some additional reliability work in phos forecasts and at New Wales that's going to suck up a little bit more capital this year. in order so that the second half of the year is at that max capacity run rate.

然後我們還有一些其他的正常計劃內的周轉工作。但現在我們正在加速推進磷礦預測方面的一些額外可靠性工作，而新威爾斯今年這將耗費更多的資金。以便下半年能達到最大產能運轉率。

So you will see a difference between first half, second half, given that pull forward of some work that we're doing to really address those lingering reliability issues in phosphoric acid.

因此，你會看到上半部和下半部之間的差異，因為我們正在做一些工作來真正解決磷酸中那些揮之不去的可靠性問題。

Andrew Wong, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Andrew Wong。

So Mosaic, obviously, have a very interesting monetization of assets with Ma'aden and Patos de Minas. Just wondering what other assets might be considered? You mentioned Carlsbad. Is there anything else that might be notable that we should be thinking about? And then just regarding the Ma'aden transaction, are there ways to monetize that investment before the lockup period?

因此，Mosaic 顯然與 Ma'aden 和 Patos de Minas 實現了非常有趣的資產貨幣化。只是想知道還有哪些資產可能會被考慮？您提到了卡爾斯巴德。還有什麼值得我們思考的值得注意的事情嗎？那麼關於 Ma'aden 交易，有沒有辦法在鎖定期之前將投資貨幣化？

Yes, Andrew, no, thanks. I think we've been pretty consistent, and I'm going to turn it over to Luciano in a minute to talk about some of the details as he kind of highlighted that on the prerecorded section. As we're looking at every asset within our portfolio to see if it generates returns that are acceptable. Some examples, as you mentioned, the Ma'aden transaction was the kind of tip of the iceberg of that -- this -- as we close 2024. But even if you go back to Streamsong in 2023, that was another example of looking at our portfolio.

是的，安德魯。不，謝謝。我認為我們一直非常一致，我將在一分鐘內將話題交給盧西亞諾來談論一些細節，因為他在預先錄製的部分強調了這一點。我們正在審查投資組合中的每一項資產，看看它是否能產生可接受的回報。舉幾個例子，正如你所提到的，Ma'aden 交易只是冰山一角——就在 2024 年即將結束之際。但即使你在 2023 年回到 Streamsong，那也是審視我們的作品集的另一個例子。

The Patos de Minas mine, which was an idled mine, had an opportunity to sell that for something that contributes very positively. And as you said, Andrew, we do have a process ongoing and are optimistic that we may have some news in the upcoming weeks to announce at Carlsbad.

帕托斯迪米納斯礦是一座閒置礦山，它有機會將其出售，以獲得非常積極的貢獻。正如你所說，安德魯，我們確實有一個正在進行的進程，我們樂觀地認為我們可能會在未來幾週在卡爾斯巴德宣布一些消息。

So every asset is being looked at. And if we've got opportunities to think differently about that, opportunities to maybe even consider divesting of that, those are things that we're going to continue to look at. And we'll be talking a lot more about that in detail in our Analyst Day on March 18. But Luciano, I'll turn it over to you.

因此，每項資產都受到審查。如果我們有機會以不同的方式思考這個問題，甚至有機會考慮放棄這個問題，那麼我們就會繼續關注這些問題。我們將在 3 月 18 日的分析師日上更詳細地討論這個問題。但是盧西亞諾，我會把它交給你。

No, Bruce said it all. We ask for patience from you on the Street because it's -- there's a lot of studies ongoing. No stone is going to be left unturned. There will be specifics being given at the Analyst Investor Day. And as Bruce pointed out, we're very optimistic with the Carlsbad, the way things are going. So we should expect some news, important news for you maybe as early as Q2.

不，布魯斯已經說了一切。我們請求華爾街的各位保持耐心，因為還有很多研究正在進行中。我們將竭盡全力。分析師投資人日上將會公佈具體資訊。正如布魯斯指出的那樣，我們對卡爾斯巴德的進展非常樂觀。因此，我們應該期待一些消息，可能最早在第二季就會有一些重要的消息。

And as regards to Ma'aden shares, yes, there are ways to monetize it beforehand. We are looking into it. But you shouldn't expect something, I would say, on the size of the entire shareholding because -- simply because there are constraints, liquidity constraints, to do it, like third parties to do it.

至於 Ma'aden 股份，是的，有辦法預先貨幣化。我們正在調查此事。但我想說，你不應該對整個股權規模抱有太大的期望，因為——僅僅是因為存在限制，流動性限制，才能做到這一點，就像第三方做到這一點一樣。

Lots of ideas. That's something that we're looking upon very, very carefully. But again, as news comes out, we're going to let you know as soon as we have decisions made.

有很多想法。我們正在非常仔細地研究這個問題。但再次重申，一旦有消息發布，我們會在做出決定後立即告知您。

Steve Byrne, Bank of America.

美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

Steve, your line may be muted.

史蒂夫，你的線路可能被靜音了。

Yes, sorry about that. I'm struggling to understand your outlook for global phosphate shipments. It's the chart you have on slide 20. You look at that and you look at the 10-year period before 2022, and you would project something much greater than the low end of your forecast for '25. So what has happened in these last few years? It's not like these growers use of phosphate is discretionary, if it's being removed with the crops.

是的，很抱歉。我很難理解您對全球磷酸鹽出貨量的展望。它是第 20 張投影片上的圖表。如果你看一下這個數字，並看看 2022 年之前的 10 年時期，你就會預測出比 25 年預測的低端要大得多的數字。那麼過去幾年發生了什麼事？如果磷酸鹽是隨農作物一起去除的，那麼這些種植者對磷酸鹽的使用就不是隨意的。

Is this a case where there has just been excess material in most soil? Has there have been greater application rates than needed? Why isn't there a yield drag from this? And one more, by extension, is there potential for this curve to really flatten longer term from your BioPath and PowerCoat products, which can release the immobilized phosphate in soil?

這是否是大多數土壤中都存在過量物質的情況？申請率是否已經高於需求？為什麼這不會對收益率造成拖累？再進一步說，從長遠來看，你們的 BioPath 和 PowerCoat 產品是否有可能釋放土壤中的固定磷酸鹽，從而使這條曲線真正趨於平緩？

Steve, thanks for the question. And I'm going to end up -- I'll kick it off and say a couple of opening remarks and then give it over to Jenny to kind of get into the specifics on the yield and application in phosphate, and then the complement of your question on Biosciences.

史蒂夫，謝謝你的提問。最後，我將開始講幾句開場白，然後交給珍妮 (Jenny) 來具體談談磷酸鹽的產量和應用，然後回答您關於生物科學的問題。

But I think what we see is that it's actually a supply-side limitation on demand growth for phosphates. There just is limited supply in the marketplace, which is why stripping margins have stayed so constructive for so long.

但我認為我們看到的是，這實際上是磷酸鹽需求成長的供應方限制。市場上的供應量有限，這就是為什麼剝離利潤率長期保持如此高的原因。

And we're seeing that kind of $6.30 to $6.50 price point and north of $400 stripping margins -- realized stripping margins for Mosaic, even above that by $20 to $40 a tonne, given our advantages. So it really is the constructiveness and the tightness of the market largely driven by the export constraints and the discipline on exports coming out of China.

我們看到 6.30 美元到 6.50 美元的價格點和 400 美元以上的剝離利潤——考慮到我們的優勢，Mosaic 實現的剝離利潤甚至比這高出每噸 20 到 40 美元。因此，市場的建設性和緊張性很大程度上實際上是受到中國出口限制和出口紀律的推動。

So we don't see that changing much, Steve. And actually, competition for phosphate molecules outside of just pure-play agriculture are going to continue with our LFP. And this is probably where Biosciences actually are complementary to that supply constraint to actually allow farmers to continue to get good yield improvements even with the supply constraint on phosphates, until such time that there is significant new greenfield capacity announced, which just isn't the case.

因此我們認為這不會發生太大的變化，史蒂夫。實際上，除了純農業領域之外，磷酸鹽分子的競爭仍將透過我們的 LFP 持續下去。這可能是生物科學實際上對供應限制的補充，實際上它允許農民在磷酸鹽供應受限的情況下繼續獲得良好的產量提高，直到宣布有大量新的綠地產能，但事實並非如此。

So a 1% to 1.5% compound annual growth rate in phosphates, I think, is what we would expect going forward through the decade. But Jenny, I'll turn it over to you.

因此，我認為，我們預計未來十年磷酸鹽的複合年增長率將達到 1% 至 1.5%。但是珍妮，我會把它交給你。

Sure. Thanks, Bruce. Steve, I think you raised a very good question. We actually project the demand growth for phosphate globally should stay at a trend line between 1% to 2%. But you're exactly right, it didn't happen over the last couple of years. As Bruce mentioned, it's really constrained by supply. As a result of it, it's quite supportive to the stripping margin and prices.

當然。謝謝，布魯斯。史蒂夫，我認為你提出了一個很好的問題。實際上，我們預測全球磷酸鹽的需求成長將保持在 1% 至 2% 之間的趨勢線上。但您說得完全正確，過去幾年並沒有發生這種事。正如布魯斯所提到的，它確實受到供應的限制。因此，它對剝離利潤和價格有相當大的支撐作用。

I would like to also to mention -- to answer your questions related to the phosphate application rate and how that might impact the yield. As many people know, or probably don't know, phosphorus is one of the least efficient applied nutrients, meaning, in general, only 50% of the phosphorus applied on the ground are taken or used by plant of crops. So meaning there is a big amount of phosphate being applied and stayed in the soil.

我還想提一下——回答您有關磷酸鹽施用率以及磷酸鹽施用率如何影響產量的問題。許多人都知道，或可能不知道，磷是施用效率最低的營養物質之一，這意味著一般來說，施用到地面上的磷只有 50% 被作物吸收或利用。這意味著大量的磷酸鹽被施用並留在土壤中。

With reduced application rate over the last couple of years, we may see some of the underlying impact to the yield. Some of the biological products, like you mentioned, and thank you for calling out the two flagship brands that we have, PowerCoat and BioPath, these are two good examples that microbials, bacterials actually could help to generate organic asset, which help to make the phosphorus tied to the soil to be more available for the crops to use, which in turn to make the phosphate use efficiency much higher, which should help yield increases.

隨著過去幾年施用率的降低，我們可能會看到對產量的一些潛在影響。一些生物產品，就像您提到的，感謝您提到我們的兩個旗艦品牌 PowerCoat 和 BioPath，這兩個很好的例子表明微生物、細菌實際上可以幫助產生有機資產，有助於使土壤中的磷更易被作物利用，進而大大提高磷酸鹽的利用效率，從而有助於提高產量。

So more to come, apart from the two flagship brands that we have, and we actually have even more advanced products in the pipeline. And stay tuned, we're going to talk more on our Analyst Day on March 18. Thanks.

因此，除了我們現有的兩個旗艦品牌之外，我們還將推出更多先進的產品。請繼續關注，我們將在 3 月 18 日的分析師日上進一步討論。謝謝。

Joel Jackson, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的喬爾傑克遜 (Joel Jackson)。

This is Anthony on for Joel. Maybe just a question on potash. What could maximum potash production look like compared to the guidance range you provided if global demand surprises to the upside this year?

這是安東尼代替喬爾。也許只是一個關於鉀肥的問題。如果今年全球需求意外上行，那麼與您提供的指導範圍相比，鉀肥的最大產量會是多少？

Thanks, Anthony. I think there's probably limited upside on maximum production, at least from us. And I think even on the Canadian producers, I mean, you have to talk to Nutrien about what they think, and I think that probably happened on prior call last week. But we're running at kind of full rate at Esterhazy, full rate at Bell Plaine. We use Colonsay as our swing facility. It will be running and is running right now. We always continue to analyze that.

謝謝，安東尼。我認為，最大產量的上升空間可能有限，至少對我們來說是如此。我認為，即使是對於加拿大生產商，你也必須與 Nutrien 談談他們的想法，我認為這可能在上週的電話會議上發生過。但我們在埃斯特哈齊和貝爾普萊恩都以全速運轉。我們使用科隆賽島作為我們的臨時設施。它將運行並且現在正在運行。我們始終在持續分析這一點。

But if there was upside, I think it gets down to: can the supply chain getting out of Canada actually take significant more tonnes? For sure, there's more incremental on the fringes, and that's probably on the high side -- well, not probably, it is on the high side of our range. But there is a limit just given rail fluidity, capacity at the ports to get significantly more capacity out of Canada.

但如果存在上行空間，我認為問題在於：加拿大以外的供應鏈實際上能否承受更多的噸位？當然，邊緣還有更多的增量，而且可能處於高端——嗯，不是可能，它處於我們範圍的高端。但考慮到鐵路流動性和港口容量，將更多運力運出加拿大是存在限制的。

So I think that becomes the limiting constraint and that would, as I said, the high side of our guidance really assumes that supply chain works very well and demand is on the higher end of the trend. Jenny, anything to add to that?

因此，我認為這成為限制因素，正如我所說，我們指引的高端實際上假設供應鏈運作良好，且需求處於趨勢的高端。珍妮，還有什麼要補充嗎？

I think you covered it, Bruce. I guess, apart from Canadian producers, we do not really see any major spare capacities in the rest of the world. As we mentioned on our earlier commentary, the major producers -- the two largest producers in China announced their production cut this year due to very low inventories that they had last year in their plants. And then we also see -- have seen the announcement out of FSU on their reduction of the production due to this long needed turnaround.

我想你已經涵蓋了這一點，布魯斯。我想，除了加拿大生產商外，我們在世界其他地區確實沒有看到任何大型閒置產能。正如我們在先前的評論中提到的，主要生產商——中國兩大生產商今年宣布減產，原因是去年他們工廠的庫存非常低。然後我們也看到——看到 FSU 宣布由於長期需要的轉變而減少產量。

And lastly, the addition of the supply out of Laos, it's very uncertain how much more they can push out of the country due to the issues around sinkhole and water inflow. So all in all, we do not see really any meaningful extra capacity really for potash to be able to get out for this year.

最後，加上寮國的供給，由於天坑和水流入問題，他們還能向外輸送多少水是非常不確定的。所以，總而言之，我們其實並不認為今年鉀肥能夠有任何有意義的額外產能。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

If I could just ask on CapEx and working capital. Luciano, I know you've been in the seat for a couple of months. Can you talk about sort of how you view the CapEx level now? Obviously, it's down versus the last few years. But do you think this is the right level? Are you comfortable where maintenance CapEx is? And do you think CapEx will stay flat at these levels over the next few years?

我是否可以詢問有關資本支出和營運資金的問題。盧西亞諾，我知道你已經擔任這個職位好幾個月了。您能談談您現在如何看待資本支出水準嗎？顯然，與過去幾年相比，這一數字有所下降。但您認為這是正確的水平嗎？您對維護資本支出感到滿意嗎？您認為未來幾年資本支出將維持在這些水準上嗎？

And then if I could just ask on working capital, whether you think there are any opportunities there. And in particular, maybe you could talk about how much working capital the Fertilizantes business consumes.

然後，如果我可以問一下關於營運資金的問題，您是否認為那裡有任何機會。具體來說，也許您可以談談 Fertilizantes 業務消耗了多少營運資金。

So Vincent, thank you. Starting by CapEx. We're not happy with the level of CapEx where it is, and we do have a target to reduce especially sustaining CapEx throughout the years. We can shave probably over the next few years maybe $200 million to $300 million of the level that we are today.

所以，文森特，謝謝你。從資本支出開始。我們對目前的資本支出水準並不滿意，我們的目標是降低尤其是持續性資本支出。未來幾年，我們大概可以將目前的水準削減 2 億到 3 億美元。

As Bruce said, we are spending perhaps $100 million more this year to fix the reliability issues. And that reduction will mostly come over the next few years on maintenance CapEx. That's what we are targeting. We would like to continue to have about maybe $100 million, $150 million every year, put forward into very accretive opportunity projects like the ones which were already discussed, like the hydro-floats, compaction, micro-essentials, but maintenance CapEx is where we need to do some work.

正如布魯斯所說，今年我們可能要花費 1 億美元來解決可靠性問題。而這項減少將主要體現在未來幾年的維護資本支出。這正是我們的目標。我們希望每年繼續投入約 1 億美元、1.5 億美元用於非常有增值潛力的項目，例如已經討論過的那些項目，例如水力浮子、壓實、微型必需品，但維護資本支出是我們需要做一些工作的地方。

As for working capital, there will be a build-up in working capital this year, especially in the second half, just because the business is resuming its growth. So the larger volumes in phosphates and in potash will point in that direction. And same thing in Brazil with Palmeirante coming in, in the second half, we have -- our target for sales this year is much greater than last year. Brazil will continue to grow. So all in all, it will be a consumer of working capital.

至於營運資本，今年特別是下半年營運資本將會增加，因為業務正在恢復成長。因此磷酸鹽和鉀肥的含量較大將指向那個方向。同樣的情況也發生在巴西，隨著 Palmeirante 在下半年的上市，我們今年的銷售目標比去年高出許多。巴西將持續成長。所以總的來說，它將成為營運資本的消費者。

And actually, this plays out in our outlook for cash flow this year. You should expect, I would say, given the same levels of production, stronger cash flows in '26, even more strong than the second half of '25 just because of this working capital build-up.

實際上，這體現在了我們今年的現金流展望中。我想說，你應該預料到，在同樣的生產水準下，由於營運資本的積累，26年的現金流將比25年下半年更加強勁。

That's an intrinsic, I would say, part of the business. It is well financed. So we have access to a lot of short-term options to fund it. So that's the way it is. Like we build up in the first half. We generate cash in the second half. But this year, despite the cash flow generation in the second half, there's still a little bit more of a build-up because of the growth, which is a good thing.

我想說，這是業務的內在部分。其資金充足。因此，我們可以透過許多短期選擇來為其提供資金。事實就是這樣的。就像我們在上半所建立的那樣。我們在下半年產生現金。但今年，儘管下半年產生了現金流，但由於成長，現金流仍有所增加，這是一件好事。

Richard Garchitorena, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的理查德‧加奇托雷納 (Richard Garchitorena)。

Solid progress on the cost savings and the structure at Fertilizantes, obviously, you've seen $35 million of the $150 million come from that in '24. Just wondering, for 2025, the remaining cost savings from the $150 million, how much of that is going to be coming from Fertilizantes? Is the rest going to be from SG&A?

Fertilizantes 在成本節約和結構方面取得了穩步進展，顯然，您已經看到 1.5 億美元中的 3500 萬美元來自於 1924 年的成本節約和結構調整。只是想知道，到 2025 年，剩餘的 1.5 億美元成本節省中有多少來自 Fertilizantes？其餘部分來自銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 嗎？

And then just on the Brazil market in general, maybe if you could give some color in terms of what you're -- what you've been doing to ensure that credit issues that you saw in '24 won't continue? And anything that you've done that maybe protects you from potential further downside? That would be great.

然後就整個巴西市場而言，您能否介紹一下您正在採取哪些措施來確保 24 年出現的信貸問題不會繼續發生？您採取了哪些措施可以保護自己免受潛在的進一步下跌影響？那太棒了。

Richard, thanks. Just on the -- I appreciate the recognition on the cost reduction. As we said, half of that's already been delivered from a run rate standpoint. And the remainder of that is going to come from a number of different areas. As you said, SG&A still got some cost savings to capture. We're going to see some fixed cost absorption benefits as that -- we get that extra million tonnes of production and then growing to 1.5 million tonnes of production in phosphates in North America. The improvements in production volume and reliability in South America are going to start to bring fixed cost absorption benefits as well.

理查德，謝謝。只是——我很欣賞對降低成本的認可。正如我們所說，從運行率的角度來看，其中一半已經實現。其餘部分將來自多個不同領域。正如你所說，銷售、一般及行政開支仍有一些成本需要節省。我們將看到一些固定成本吸收效益——我們獲得了額外的百萬噸產量，然後北美磷酸鹽產量增加到 150 萬噸。南美洲產量和可靠性的提高也將開始帶來固定成本吸收效益。

And then there's the hard savings that Luciano has talked about. But I think Luciano is going to -- I'll turn it over to him to talk more. But we're really looking at doubling down on even more cost reductions and turning more stones over -- in all corners of the business. So more that we'll talk about there. And I'll turn it over to him. But -- and then maybe over to Jenny if Luciano doesn't answer it first on the credit issues in Brazil. Luciano?

然後還有盧西亞諾談到的硬性儲蓄。但我認為盧西亞諾將會——我會把話題交給他進一步談論。但我們真正考慮的是加倍努力降低成本，並在業務的各個角落做出更多努力。我們將在那裡討論更多內容。我會把它轉交給他。但是——如果盧西亞諾不先回答巴西的信貸問題，那麼也許會交給珍妮。盧西亞諾？

Well, thank you, Bruce. The $150 million, it's going to be pretty much in the bag just by cost dilution in phosphates and in potash. And in fact, anything else in the Fertilizantes side will probably be on top of that. And so we are already crafting what can we achieve in addition to the $150 million, and you will put some aggressive numbers coming soon.

好吧，謝謝你，布魯斯。僅透過磷酸鹽和鉀肥的成本稀釋，1.5 億美元基本上就能賺到。事實上，Fertilizantes 隊的任何其他表現可能都會高於這一點。所以，我們已經在規劃除了 1.5 億美元之外還能實現什麼目標，您很快就會看到一些激進的數字。

We also appreciate this -- I think the performance of Fertilizantes was a little clouded because of this FX effect. So pardon me if I spend too much time discussing it at the -- initially. But I've got to reemphasize that we are really, really confident in the performance of this business going forward, precisely because of the cost performance.

我們對此也很欣賞——我認為 Fertilizantes 的表現因為這種 FX 效果而有點不理想。所以，如果我最初花了太多時間討論這個問題，請原諒我。但我必須再次強調，我們對這項業務未來的表現非常非常有信心，正是因為它的成本效益。

And I'm going to go back to one of the things which I mentioned in the briefing. For example, we have this mine Araxa and Patrocinio. The mine life is up to 2062. So by changing the mine plan, for example, and yes, shortening mine life by maybe 10 years from '62 to '52, we're accessing much better high-grade areas, the improvement in mass recovery is substantial. So only at this particular site, we're going to get another USD50 million run rate starting in January '25.

我將回顧我在簡報中提到的一件事。例如，我們有這座礦場 Araxa 和 Patrocinio。礦井壽命可達2062年。因此，透過改變礦山計劃，將礦山壽命從 1962 年縮短至 1952 年，大概 10 年，我們就可以進入更好的高品位區域，大規模回收率的提高是顯著的。因此僅在這個特定站點，我們將從25年1月開始獲得另外5000萬美元的運行率。

So there's a lot to extract from the Fertilizantes business. I encourage you to watch out for the performance of this line of business going forward.

因此，我們可以從 Fertilizantes 業務中獲得許多利益。我鼓勵您專注於這條業務線未來的表現。

Lucas Beaumont, UBS.

瑞銀的盧卡斯·博蒙特（Lucas Beaumont）。

It's [Chris Parel] on for Lucas. Following up on the potash commentary, prices were up in the first quarter, there's a pop ahead of potential tariffs. Could you just expand a bit on what you think potential tariffs on Canadian potash would have on pricing and demand and trade flows? And with the price up in the first quarter, do you realize that benefit in 1Q or 2Q?

克里斯·帕雷爾 (Chris Parel) 替換盧卡斯。根據有關鉀肥的評論，第一季鉀肥價格上漲，在潛在關稅實施前價格上漲。您能否稍微闡述一下，您認為對加拿大鉀肥徵收的潛在關稅將對價格、需求和貿易流產生什麼影響？隨著第一季價格上漲，您是否在第一季或第二季實現了這一收益？

Lucas, I'm going to -- I got your question down. I'm going to answer because we had a mic issue here, didn't get to answer the second half of Richard's question on credit in Brazil. So let's do that first, and then we'll hit your tariffs demand and trade flows issue. Jenny, you want to talk about the credit in Brazil?

盧卡斯，我打算──我記住你的問題了。我要回答，因為我們這裡的麥克風出了問題，沒能回答理查德關於巴西信用問題的後半部。所以我們先這樣做，然後再解決您的關稅需求和貿易流量問題。珍妮，你想談談巴西的信貸嗎？

Yes. Richard, to your question on the credit risk issues in Brazil, we've been very diligent in managing our business in Brazil. We made some tough choices between volume and margin and the credit risk. As a result of it, we've been really focusing on our margin, focusing on lower-risk customers.

是的。理查德，關於您提到的巴西信貸風險問題，我們一直非常勤勉地管理我們在巴西的業務。我們在交易量、保證金和信用風險之間做出了一些艱難的選擇。因此，我們一直真正關注我們的利潤，並關注低風險客戶。

And we have shifted our business away from traditional retailers in Brazil and more towards to, A, end users, mega farmers; B, traders, the green traders, who have very good butter businesses with the farmers, lastly, on the co-ops. So this very solid -- the customers with solid credit have given us a lot of insurance -- assurance on the business quality, and we will continue to do so in this year.

我們已將業務從巴西的傳統零售商轉向最終用戶和大型農民； B、貿易商，綠色貿易商，他們與農民以及合作社有非常好的黃油生意。因此，擁有良好信譽的客戶為我們的業務品質提供了巨大的保障，今年我們將繼續這樣做。

So Lucas, on the tariff question, obviously, that's a topic de jure in many corners of the globe. It's a dynamic situation, one that we're watching very closely. I know even as of yesterday, reconfirmed these March 25% tariffs. But we have numerous teams across our organization in all functions and facets working on this and paying attention to it.

盧卡斯，關於關稅問題，顯然這是全球許多地方的法定話題。這是一個動態的情況，我們正密切注意。我知道甚至截至昨天，已經重新確認了3月份的25%關稅。但我們組織內各個職能和方面的眾多團隊都在致力於此事並關注此事。

But listen, at the end of the day, if tariffs are imposed, or when, we see that it's going to be borne by downstream customers of Mosaic. So that's unfortunate, but it is the reality of that situation. With the 85% of the potash demand in the US coming from Canada, it's just hard to replace that. And so again, the downstream customers are going to bear the brunt of that cost.

但聽著，最終，如果徵收關稅，或者當關稅實施時，我們發現這將由 Mosaic 的下游客戶承擔。這很不幸，但這就是現實情況。由於美國 85% 的鉀肥需求來自加拿大，因此很難找到替代原料。因此，下游客戶將再次承擔大部分成本。

The good news, if you want to look at good news or silver lining, is that given the affordability of potash today and the increase in corn prices and wheat prices and the general affordability of commodity on the ag side in general, affordability is not that significant of an issue for potash even with a 20%, 25% tariff on top of it.

好消息是，如果你想看好消息或一線希望，那就是考慮到目前鉀肥的價格可承受性以及玉米價格和小麥價格的上漲以及農業大宗商品的總體價格可承受性，即使鉀肥還被徵收 20% 或 25% 的關稅，價格可承受性對鉀肥來說也不是什麼大問題。

The other advantage is that spring tonnes, spring season demand is pretty much already baked and in place, in space in North -- in the US. So don't see any immediate impacts for spring on the downstream side.

另一個優點是，春季的需求在北部——美國——​​已經基本成型並到位。因此，對下游春季不會產生任何直接影響。

And just to reinforce that, Jenny and I were with one of our large customers out of Ohio, a cooperative. And we asked and had a lot of discussion around the tariff impact and sentiment of farmers. And to be honest, they are not even concerned. The additional cost is not something that they're worried about.

為了強調這一點，珍妮和我與我們來自俄亥俄州的一位大客戶在一起，這是一個合作社。我們就關稅影響和農民情緒進行了大量詢問和討論。老實說，他們根本不關心。他們所擔心的並不是額外的成本。

And again, it gets down to the affordability, which, to be honest, surprised me a little bit, but it just goes to show the confidence in the market, in the farm gate, on the pricing and affordability, and that that transfer of cost on a per acre basis at the farm is not that significant in the big scheme of things.

再一次，這歸結為可負擔性，老實說，這讓我有點吃驚，但這恰恰表明了人們對市場、對農場大門、對定價和可負擔性的信心，而且從大局來看，農場每英畝成本的轉移並不那麼重要。

So don't see the tariffs having a huge impact on demand. and anything to do with the profitability for Mosaic. Now in the marketplace, to your point, prior to any tariffs, we have seen good price appreciation, greater than $40 a tonne up in the US and Brazil on potash since December of '24 or the turn of the year, and even higher than that if you look at domestic prices in China.

因此，關稅不會對需求產生巨大影響。以及任何與 Mosaic 盈利能力相關的事情。現在在市場上，正如您所說，在徵收任何關稅之前，我們看到價格大幅上漲，自 2024 年 12 月或今年年初以來，美國和巴西的鉀肥價格每噸上漲了 40 美元以上，如果看看中國國內價格，甚至更高。

So there is good price momentum around the globe. And some of the first good price momentum we've seen of this magnitude in a couple of years. So where we'll realize that, I'll turn that over to Jenny from a rev rec standpoint.

因此全球價格勢頭良好。這是我們幾年來首次看到如此規模的良好價格勢頭。因此，當我們意識到這一點時，我會從 rev rec 的角度交給 Jenny。

Sure. Lucas, I believe the price momentum, as Bruce mentioned, some of them will be reflected in Q1 and much more will be reflected in Q2. It is just because of the selling cycle between Canpotex and ourself in domestic market are very different. So you should see from our guidance that we are guiding a higher price in Q1 and more to come in Q2.

當然。盧卡斯，我相信價格勢頭，正如布魯斯所提到的，其中一些將反映在第一季度，更多的將反映在第二季度。只是因為Canpotex和我們在國內市場的銷售週期有很大的不同。因此，您應該從我們的指導中看到，我們指導第一季的價格會更高，並且指導第二季的價格會更高。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Your cash flows in the fourth quarter and for the year-end 2024 were quite low in that your EBITDA was almost $600 million, and you generated roughly $220 million in cash. You weren't able to cover your dividend and your CapEx this year from operating cash flow. Was there something in the large currency events that pushed cash flow down? And do you expect to cover CapEx and dividends next year with operating cash flow?

您第四季和 2024 年底的現金流相當低，因為您的 EBITDA 接近 6 億美元，而您產生的現金約為 2.2 億美元。您今年無法用營運現金流支付股利和資本支出。是否有重大貨幣事件導致現金流下降？您是否預計明年的營運現金流能夠涵蓋資本支出和股利？

Yes, Jeff, good question and something we've had a lot of discussion around ourselves. So I'm going to turn it over to Luciano to get into the details of that.

是的，傑夫，這個問題問得很好，我們也對此進行了很多討論。因此我將把這個問題交給盧西亞諾來詳細討論。

Jeff, indeed, the shortfall in volumes and production volumes and sales generated a shortfall in cash flows, especially in the second half, which was not in the forecast. So yes, it's true that the cash flows didn't cover the dividend and the CapEx. You can estimate the shortfalls at perhaps around $300 million just by multiplying the shortfalls in production by the margins.

傑夫，確實，產量和銷售額的下降導致了現金流的短缺，特別是下半年，這不在預測之中。所以是的，現金流確實沒有覆蓋股息和資本支出。只要將生產缺口乘以利潤率，就可以估算出缺口約 3 億美元。

And with the additional cost involved, so I'll give you an example, just in AROs, we spent another $20 million in the fourth quarter just to remove the water brought by the hurricanes, and you see an uptick in ARO in the quarter as well.

由於涉及額外成本，我舉個例子，僅在 ARO 方面，我們在第四季度又花費了 2000 萬美元來清除颶風帶來的水，而且您會看到本季度的 ARO 也出現了上升。

But for this year, the situation is different. Yes, we do expect to cover the minimum dividend, the CapEx, and even have some excess cash in order to either distribute to shareholders or roll back some of the working capital funding additional that we did.

但今年的情況有所不同。是的，我們確實希望支付最低股息和資本支出，甚至還有一些多餘的現金，以便分配給股東或收回我們額外投入的一些營運資金。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

I mean first of all, just a clarification. In terms of the model and assumptions you provided you gave production volumes for potash and phosphate, like what do you expect sales volume to be from Mosaic, or is it the same number that we should think of?

首先，我只是想澄清一下。就您提供的模型和假設而言，您給出了鉀肥和磷酸鹽的產量，那麼您預計 Mosaic 的銷售量是多少，還是應該和我們想的一樣？

But for my real question, so again, in the potash outlook, you talked about farmers -- I mean potash will remain affordable and everything else despite the tariffs. If that's the case, if farmers can and are willing to pay more for potash, why didn't producers push through those price increases, say, a couple of months ago last year when corn prices, if you look at the December corn '25, it's almost the same level as it is now. So if the corn prices were not a factor, so why didn't producers push for higher potash prices if farmers were willing to pay for it essentially?

但對於我真正的問題，再次，在鉀肥前景中，您談到了農民 - 我的意思是儘管有關稅，鉀肥和其他所有東西仍將保持可負擔得起。如果事實確實如此，如果農民能夠並且願意為鉀肥支付更高的價格，那麼為什麼生產商沒有推動價格上漲，比如說，去年幾個月前，當玉米價格上漲時，如果你看看25年12月份的玉米，它幾乎和現在的水平相同。那麼，如果玉米價格不是一個因素，那麼如果農民願意支付鉀肥價格，為什麼生產者不推動提高鉀肥價格呢？

Yes, Edlain, thanks for the question. Good nuance catch on our guidance. And we don't provide sales guidance and aren't providing sales guidance for the full year. We did decide to give production guidance as something for you all to have better clarity on where we are. But I'll leave it at that for the time being.

是的，艾德萊恩，謝謝你的提問。很好的細微差別抓住了我們的指導。我們不提供銷售指導，也不會提供全年銷售指導。我們確實決定提供生產指導，以便大家更了解我們的狀況。但我暫時就此打住。

On the pricing thing, a couple of things changed. I mean one is the price of corn continues to appreciate as well as some of the other grain commodities. But the other one was the late announcement since December of significant production supply side constraints. And that has tightened the market.

在定價方面，有幾件事發生了變化。我的意思是，一是玉米價格以及其他一些穀物商品的價格持續上漲。但另一個原因是自12月以來，生產供應側出現重大限制的公告。這導致市場供應收緊。

So as much as you'd say, why didn't prices get pushed? It really was a global supply-and-demand phenomenon that changed from where it was, say, going into September, October, November. And what changed December to now is about 1.5 million tonnes or more have come out from the supply side, particularly in our forecast, with the announcements in China on domestic production going down, with the announcement -- and issues with the sinkholes in Laos and what could be the effects of that with the announcements from Uralkali and Belaruskali on their significant maintenance outages. So it really comes back down to fundamentals on S&D on why we've seen that price appreciation over the last several weeks.

那麼正如您所說的，為什麼價格沒有上漲？這確實是一種全球供需現象，從九月、十月、十一月開始就改變了。從 12 月到現在的變化是，供應方面已經輸出了大約 150 萬噸或更多，特別是根據我們的預測，中國宣布降低國內產量，老撾宣布發生天坑問題，以及烏拉爾鉀肥和白俄羅斯鉀肥公司宣布進行大規模停產維護，這可能會產生什麼影響。因此，為什麼我們在過去幾週看到價格上漲，這實際上又歸結為 S&D 的基本面。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本‧圖勒 (Ben Theurer)。

I just wanted to follow up, Luciano, on some of the items you flagged for Fertilizantes down in Brazil. I was just wondering about the costs you've talked about that you've taken out. And obviously, you expect some of it to come back from the losses in the third quarter with AgroGalaxy. But as we think about 2025 and the modeling go forward, just that SG&A run rate, how much right now of that low level that we saw in 4Q was really just FX related?

盧西亞諾，我只是想跟進一下你向巴西的 Fertilizantes 提出的一些事項。我只是想知道您談到的已經扣除的費用。顯然，您預計 AgroGalaxy 第三季的損失將有所回報。但是，當我們展望 2025 年並且模型繼續向前發展時，僅就銷售、一般及行政開支運行率而言，我們在第四季度看到的低水平中有多少實際上僅與外匯有關？

And what would be, call it, a more normalized level if we expect something in the 5.5% to 6% and not maybe beyond 6% as we've seen it in fourth quarter? And then to the timing of these insurance reclaims, if you can comment anything on like how you think to gain back those $30 million.

如果我們預期成長率在 5.5% 到 6% 之間，而不是像第四季那樣超過 6%，那麼更正常的水平是什麼？然後關於這些保險索賠的時機，如果您能就如何收回這 3000 萬美元發表任何評論的話。

Okay. I would say if you look at our performance sheet data, we do provide unaudited non-GAAP costs, mining costs and phosphate conversion costs and even potash costs, in Brazilian real. So whatever exchange rate you want to model, just think of those as, I would say, the ceiling levels going forward. So you have a parameter here. But as I said before, we're trying to reduce those even in the Brazilian reals. So that's for one.

好的。我想說，如果你看看我們的業績表數據，我們確實提供了未經審計的非 GAAP 成本、採礦成本、磷酸鹽轉換成本，甚至鉀肥成本（以巴西雷亞爾計算）。所以，無論您想模擬何種匯率，我都只需將其視為未來的上限水準。所以這裡有一個參數。但正如我之前所說，我們正在努力降低巴西雷亞爾的匯率。這是其中之一。

As for AgroGalaxy, I'm pretty confident that we will recover it this year. Cannot be precise about the quarter, but for sure, these types of processes, they don't take as long. So we're confident that we're going to get the cash flows back this year.

至於 AgroGalaxy，我非常有信心我們今年能夠恢復它。無法準確說明具體季度，但可以肯定的是，這些類型的流程不會花費那麼長時間。因此我們有信心今年能夠收回現金流。

Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的克里斯汀歐文。

Sort of a follow-up to the Fertilizantes question here, a little bit more granular. The $120 million quarterly run rate that you outlined as sort of the underlying performance of that business, can you give us a little bit of color first half, second half?

這是對 Fertilizantes 問題的後續回答，更詳細。您所說季度運作率 1.2 億美元是該業務的基本表現，能否為我們介紹一下上半年和下半年的情況？

And then from an underlying demand perspective, how you're thinking about recovery in the back half of the year given some of the distribution challenges and your shift toward the larger customers or direct to co-ops. Is there an opportunity to refill the channel? Or should we just think about sort of a gradual increase in the back half of the year?

然後從潛在需求的角度來看，考慮到一些分銷挑戰以及您向大客戶或直接合作社的轉變，您如何看待下半年的復甦。是否有機會重新填充管道？或者我們應該只考慮在今年下半年逐步增加？

Kristen, thanks for the question. Let's unpack that a little bit on two sides. One, Jenny, maybe a timing of how things shape on cash flows, and then I'll turn it over to Luciano on anything on the underlying financial performance effects.

克里斯汀，謝謝你的提問。讓我們從兩個方面來稍微解析一下這個問題。首先，珍妮，也許是事情如何影響現金流，然後我會把它交給盧西亞諾，討論任何與潛在財務表現影響有關的事情。

Sure. Thanks. To your question on the customer selection of move between different segments, Kris, that has happened. So we actually, over the last year, we've made that move. And we think we are in a good place this year towards to the customers that we're going to do business with, with a much more solid credit profile. So I don't necessarily see a major volume change from Q1 to -- from first half to the second half.

當然。謝謝。對於你關於客戶選擇在不同細分市場之間轉移的問題，Kris，這種情況已經發生了。因此，實際上，在過去的一年裡，我們已經採取了這項措施。我們認為，今年我們對與我們開展業務的客戶處於有利地位，擁有更穩固的信用狀況。因此，我認為從第一季到下半年，銷量不會大幅變動。

I would say the volume growth this year is pretty much going to depend on, A, if the market is going to go as what we forecasted and we anticipate, the market is going to hit a new record from shipment point of view, from a demand point of view. B, from customers' credit profile point of view, we feel comfortable as where we are today. And so just to summarize, we don't see major change from first half to the second half.

我想說，今年的銷售成長很大程度上取決於：A，如果市場按照我們預測和預期的那樣發展，那麼從出貨量和需求的角度來看，市場將創下新高。B、從客戶的信用狀況來看，我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。總而言之，我們沒有看到上半年到下半年有重大變化。

Yes. And on the cost side, the -- yes, you're right, that's exactly the message we want to convey that the $120 million run rate is the floor for the performance of Fertilizantes going forward. And again, I just gave an example in the prior question about something that is not in that $120 million, so you should expect upside from there. And we're positive that we will start showing those results from Q2 onwards.

是的。在成本方面，是的，你是對的，這正是我們想要傳達的訊息，即 1.2 億美元的運行率是 Fertilizantes 未來業績的底線。再說一次，我在前面的問題中只是舉了一個例子，關於一些不包含在 1.2 億美元中的東西，因此你應該期待從那裡獲得好處。我們確信我們將從第二季開始展示這些結果。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bruce Bodine for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給布魯斯·博丁，請他作最後發言。

Well, thank you, operator. And I'll close the call by reiterating a few of our key messages. First, the market backdrop is promising. Global agriculture fundamentals have improved, providing plenty of incentive for farmers to maximize yields.

好的，謝謝您，接線生。在結束本次電話會議時，我將重申我們的一些關鍵訊息。一是市場環境良好。全球農業基本面已經改善，為農民最大限度提高產量提供了充足的動力。

Second, at Mosaic, we're making meaningful strategic progress. Our work to restore phosphate production to historic levels is proceeding well, and we've completed low-cost, high-return projects to enhance our production and distribution in all segments of the business.

其次，在 Mosaic，我們正在取得有意義的策略進展。我們將磷酸鹽產量恢復到歷史水平的工作進展順利，並且我們已經完成了低成本、高回報的項目，以提高我們業務各個環節的生產和分銷能力。

And third, our efforts to reallocate capital in pursuit of better returns is coming to fruition, and we're excited about that. We've announced or completed several transactions, and we expect to have more news in the near future.

第三，我們為追求更好的回報而重新分配資本的努力正在取得成果，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們已經宣布或完成了幾項交易，並且我們期待在不久的將來有更多消息。

All in all, we have a strongly positive outlook for 2025 and a well-defined path to benefit from good market conditions. So thank you all for your joint call, and have a great and safe day.

總而言之，我們對 2025 年的前景非常樂觀，並且有明確的途徑從良好的市場條件中獲益。感謝大家的聯合呼籲，祝大家有個愉快、安全的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。