穆迪 (MCO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。此時，我想通知大家，本次會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. This morning, Moody's released its results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022, our outlook for full year 2023 and an update on our medium-term targets. The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

謝謝，下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。今天上午，穆迪發布了 2022 年第四季度和全年的業績、我們對 2023 年全年的展望以及我們中期目標的更新。收益新聞稿和本次電話會議的演示文稿均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上獲取。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for a reconciliation between all adjusted measures referenced during this call and U.S. GAAP.

在此電話會議期間，我們還將提供非 GAAP 或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天上午提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，了解本次電話會議期間引用的所有調整後指標與美國公認會計原則之間的對賬情況。

I call your attention to the safe harbor language which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website. These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

我提請您注意在我們的收益發布結束時可以找到的安全港語言。今天的評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論和分析部分以及我們年度報告中討論的風險因素表格截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K，以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，這些文件可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。這些連同安全港聲明列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode. Rob Fauber, Moody's President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of our results, key business highlights and outlook. After which, he'll be joined by Mark Kaye, Moody's Chief Financial Officer, to answer your questions. I'll now turn the call over to Rob.

我還想指出，媒體成員今天上午可能會以只聽模式接聽電話。穆迪總裁兼首席執行官 Rob Fauber 將概述我們的業績、主要業務亮點和展望。之後，穆迪首席財務官 Mark Kaye 將與他一起回答您的問題。我現在將電話轉給 Rob。

Thanks, Shivani. Good afternoon, and thanks to everybody for joining today's call. I'm going to start with some key takeaways from our 2022 results, and then I'll look ahead to what we're expecting for 2023 before we take your questions.

謝謝，希瓦尼。下午好，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我將從我們 2022 年的結果中得出的一些關鍵要點開始，然後在我們回答您的問題之前展望一下我們對 2023 年的預期。

Our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results demonstrate the positive momentum and resilience of MA, while at the same time, reflecting the impact of challenging market conditions on MIS. And MA had a very strong finish to the year, delivered its 60th consecutive quarter of growth and 10% ARR growth. Revenue grew 15% for the year. And for the first time, MA's full year adjusted operating margin exceeded 30%, and those are results that achieve the Rule of 40 distinction.

我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財務業績展示了 MA 的積極勢頭和彈性，同時反映了充滿挑戰的市場條件對 MIS 的影響。 MA 在今年取得了非常強勁的成績，實現了連續第 60 個季度的增長和 10% 的 ARR 增長。全年收入增長 15%。 MA 的全年調整後營業利潤率首次超過 30%，這些結果達到了 40 分規則。

MIS generated $2.7 billion in revenue as it weathered a challenging year for issuance, and we continue to advance our ratings franchise to ensure that we're well positioned to capture future issuance growth. And during the fourth quarter, we executed on the expanded expense management program that we announced in October. That's expected to deliver over $200 million in annualized savings in 2023. And it really significantly strengthens our financial position and flexibility for the coming year.

MIS 在經歷了充滿挑戰的發行年後創造了 27 億美元的收入，我們繼續推進我們的評級特許經營權，以確保我們有能力抓住未來的發行增長。在第四季度，我們執行了 10 月份宣布的擴展費用管理計劃。預計這將在 2023 年帶來超過 2 億美元的年度節省。它確實顯著增強了我們來年的財務狀況和靈活性。

Now for the full year 2023, we expect Moody's revenue to grow in the mid- to high single-digit percent range. And in addition, we're maintaining our previously communicated medium-term growth targets with a reset of the base year to 2022. And in what is clearly a fast-paced and ever-evolving landscape, we're investing with intent to grow and scale and to expand our capabilities to deliver on our mission, and that is providing best-in-class integrated perspectives on risk.

現在，對於 2023 年全年，我們預計穆迪的收入將在中高個位數百分比範圍內增長。此外，我們將維持我們之前傳達的中期增長目標，並將基準年重置為 2022 年。在一個明顯快節奏和不斷發展的環境中，我們正在投資以實現增長和擴大規模並擴展我們履行使命的能力，這就是提供一流的風險綜合觀點。

So turning to our full year financials. Moody's total revenue was $5.5 billion. MA contributed approximately half of our total revenue for the first time in our history. And as I mentioned, MA revenue grew by 15%, and excluding the negative impact of foreign exchange, growth would have been 20%. Organic constant dollar growth for both MA revenue and ARR was 10%. And overall, Moody's achieved a 42.6% adjusted operating margin with an adjusted diluted EPS of $8.57.

因此，轉向我們的全年財務狀況。穆迪的總收入為 55 億美元。 MA 在我們的歷史上首次貢獻了我們總收入的一半左右。正如我提到的，MA 收入增長了 15%，排除外彙的負面影響，增長將達到 20%。 MA 收入和 ARR 的有機恆定美元增長率均為 10%。總體而言，穆迪實現了 42.6% 的調整後營業利潤率，調整後的攤薄每股收益為 8.57 美元。

Now moving on. We remain laser focused on the 4 strategic priorities that I outlined in February of 2021 in order to realize the potential of our global integrated risk assessment strategy. And the success of this strategy has been made possible by our incredibly talented and committed employees. They've helped us launch new products, expand into new markets and improve the experience for our customers. And it's really wonderful to see our collective work achieve a number of important industry awards.

現在繼續。我們仍然專注於我在 2021 年 2 月概述的 4 個戰略重點，以實現我們全球綜合風險評估戰略的潛力。我們非常有才華和忠誠的員工使這一戰略的成功成為可能。他們幫助我們推出新產品、拓展新市場並改善客戶體驗。看到我們的集體作品獲得許多重要的行業獎項，真是太棒了。

For the first time, Moody's earned the top ranking in the Chartis RiskTech100. And we placed ahead of hundreds of companies in the risk and compliance technology space that ranges from household names in our sector to earlier-stage innovators. And it's really a testament to the momentum of our risk assessment strategy and the quality of our portfolio of solutions. And in addition, for the 11th consecutive year, MIS was voted the Best Credit Rating Agency by Institutional Investor and really demonstrates that we remain the clear agency of choice with investors.

穆迪首次在 Chartis RiskTech100 中名列前茅。我們在風險和合規技術領域領先於數百家公司，這些公司從我們行業中家喻戶曉的公司到處於早期階段的創新者。這確實證明了我們風險評估策略的勢頭和我們解決方案組合的質量。此外，MIS 連續第 11 年被 Institutional Investor 評為最佳信用評級機構，真正證明我們仍然是投資者明確的首選機構。

In MIS, in 2022, we made several important investments to enhance our ratings presence in emerging markets. And that includes the acquisition of our majority stake in the largest domestic rating agency in Africa and the further expansion of Moody's Local in Latin America. We also met the need for greater transparency in ESG risks, specifically as they relate to credit by rolling out more than 10,000 new ESG credit impact scores across MIS.

在 MIS，我們在 2022 年進行了幾項重要投資，以提高我們在新興市場的評級影響力。這包括收購我們在非洲最大的國內評級機構的多數股權，以及進一步擴大穆迪在拉丁美洲的本地業務。我們還通過在 MIS 中推出 10,000 多個新的 ESG 信用影響評分來滿足提高 ESG 風險透明度的需求，特別是當它們與信用相關時。

Now across MA, we enhanced a number of our workflow offerings through the integration of data and analytics, and we created new products to meet evolving customer needs. In fact, newly developed organic products contributed a significant portion of MA sales growth in 2022. I'm going to touch on several of these in a few minutes.

現在，在整個 MA 中，我們通過數據和分析的集成增強了我們的許多工作流程產品，並且我們創造了新產品來滿足不斷變化的客戶需求。事實上，新開發的有機產品為 2022 年 MA 銷售額增長貢獻了很大一部分。我將在幾分鐘內談到其中的幾個。

Turning to the outlook for MIS. As I mentioned last quarter, we expect that the factors that impacted issuance in 2022 to persist really through the first half of 2023. The inflationary environment, the pace of interest rate increases are still causing volatility in equity and debt markets, and the trajectory of economic growth in major economies remains uncertain.

轉向 MIS 的前景。正如我上個季度提到的，我們預計影響 2022 年發行的因素將持續到 2023 年上半年。通脹環境、加息步伐仍在導致股票和債務市場波動，以及主要經濟體的經濟增長仍存在不確定性。

So it's going to take some time for these issues to resolve and for debt market activity to fully resume. But refunding needs and pent-up issuance demand and baseline economic growth, they all point to a recovery in issuance, which we expect to pick up in the second half of the year. And in this environment, we are proactively balancing our commitment to serve issuers and investors with the highest quality ratings and research and insights, while at the same time, prudently managing cost. And we expect that the swift and decisive expense management actions that we took in the fourth quarter will enable MIS's adjusted operating margin to return to the mid-50s percent range in 2023.

因此，這些問題的解決以及債務市場活動的全面恢復都需要一些時間。但償還需求和被壓抑的發行需求以及基線經濟增長都表明發行量正在復蘇，我們預計發行量將在下半年回升。在這種環境下，我們積極平衡我們為發行人和投資者提供最高質量評級、研究和見解的承諾，同時審慎地管理成本。我們預計，我們在第四季度採取的迅速而果斷的費用管理行動將使 MIS 的調整後營業利潤率在 2023 年恢復到 50% 左右的範圍。

So moving to MA. I want to highlight the impact of the significant investments that we've made in product development and sales and acquisitions. And over the last 3 years, these investments have helped us deliver $1 billion in additional recurring revenue. And on an organic constant currency basis, recurring revenue growth has been steadily improving each year from 9.2% in 2020 to 9.7% in 2021 and 11.1% in 2022.

所以搬到馬。我想強調我們在產品開發、銷售和收購方面進行的重大投資的影響。在過去 3 年中，這些投資幫助我們實現了 10 億美元的額外經常性收入。在有機不變貨幣的基礎上，經常性收入增長每年都在穩步提高，從 2020 年的 9.2% 到 2021 年的 9.7% 和 2022 年的 11.1%。

And we're well positioned for future growth as 3 of our businesses with revenue of more than $100 million each delivered ARR growth in excess of 10%. In fact, our KYC and compliance business, which is our fastest-growing business, had ARR growth greater than 20%. And even some of our more established products such as Orbis and CreditView delivered high single-digit ARR growth last year.

我們為未來的增長做好了充分準備，因為我們的 3 家收入超過 1 億美元的業務均實現了超過 10% 的 ARR 增長。事實上，我們增長最快的業務 KYC 和合規業務的 ARR 增長率超過 20%。甚至我們一些更成熟的產品，如 Orbis 和 CreditView，去年也實現了高個位數的 ARR 增長。

So let me give you a little bit of insight into how several of our newly-launched products are contributing to this growth. And I'm going to start with our KYC life cycle solution, which offers customers a user-friendly configurable portal and risk engine. And it enables fast and accurate checks that leverage our vast company, people and news data sets.

因此，讓我向您簡要介紹一下我們新推出的幾種產品是如何促進這一增長的。我將從我們的 KYC 生命週期解決方案開始，它為客戶提供一個用戶友好的可配置門戶和風險引擎。它還可以利用我們龐大的公司、人員和新聞數據集進行快速準確的檢查。

And this solution integrates the capabilities that we've built and acquired over the past several years, so it's opening the door to new markets and customer segments with a powerful new workflow tool for financial crime compliance and third-party due diligence. And it is resonating with our customers. In the fourth quarter, we completed one of our largest-ever sales to a nonfinancial corporate customer, NMA, with a combined offering supporting both customer and supplier vetting and screening capabilities.

該解決方案集成了我們在過去幾年中構建和獲得的功能，因此它通過強大的新工作流工具打開了通往新市場和客戶群的大門，用於金融犯罪合規和第三方盡職調查。它引起了我們客戶的共鳴。在第四季度，我們完成了對非金融企業客戶 NMA 的有史以來最大的銷售之一，並提供支持客戶和供應商審查和篩選功能的組合產品。

We also recently launched an enhanced version of our Climate on Demand product, which integrates our very rich climate analytics from RMS and MA and broadens the scope of our capabilities in the banking and insurance sectors and beyond. And Climate on Demand is part of our growing suite of physical and transition risk offerings, which are gaining traction with our customers.

我們最近還推出了 Climate on Demand 產品的增強版，它集成了我們來自 RMS 和 MA 的非常豐富的氣候分析，並擴大了我們在銀行業和保險業及其他領域的能力範圍。 Climate on Demand 是我們不斷增長的實體風險和轉型風險產品組合的一部分，這些產品越來越受到我們客戶的青睞。

For example, we were awarded an important sales mandate late last year as a major U.S. financial regulator selected us to help them better understand and measure the impact of climate on risks facing financial institutions in the broader economy. And we were selected because of our ability to bring together some unique capabilities from across Moody's, and that includes our ability to quantify the financial impact of climate risk, physical risk assessment of bank operations and exposures as well as financed emissions.

例如，去年年底，我們獲得了一項重要的銷售授權，因為美國一家主要金融監管機構選擇我們幫助他們更好地了解和衡量氣候對金融機構在更廣泛經濟中面臨的風險的影響。我們之所以被選中，是因為我們有能力匯集穆迪的一些獨特能力，包括我們量化氣候風險的財務影響、銀行業務和風險敞口的實體風險評估以及融資排放的能力。

And in banking, we extended our CreditLens origination solution into commercial real estate, and that's one of the largest asset classes on bank balance sheets. And this product integrates our proprietary property data, market forecast and credit analytics to meet the specific needs of commercial real estate lenders.

在銀行業，我們將 CreditLens 發起解決方案擴展到商業房地產，這是銀行資產負債表上最大的資產類別之一。該產品集成了我們專有的房地產數據、市場預測和信用分析，以滿足商業房地產貸款機構的特定需求。

And we're excited to partner on this product with one of the largest real estate lenders in the United States, and we're encouraged by the positive customer feedback and sales progress to date. So together, these examples, I think, demonstrate how we are integrating capabilities, we're driving product innovation and leveraging our very strong sales distribution to build a robust pipeline as a foundation for continued growth.

我們很高興能與美國最大的房地產貸款機構之一就此產品展開合作，我們對積極的客戶反饋和迄今為止的銷售進展感到鼓舞。因此，我認為這些例子共同展示了我們如何整合能力，我們正在推動產品創新並利用我們非常強大的銷售分佈來建立強大的管道作為持續增長的基礎。

So let me turn to the outlook for 2023, and I want to highlight just a few of our guidance metrics. We project that Moody's revenue will grow in the mid- to high single-digit percent range and adjusted operating margin to be in the range of 44% to 45%. Adjusted diluted EPS is forecast to be in the range of $9 to $9.50. And for the medium term, we're maintaining our previously communicated growth targets with a reset of the base year to 2022.

那麼讓我談談 2023 年的展望，我想強調一些我們的指導指標。我們預計穆迪的收入將在中高個位數百分比範圍內增長，調整後的營業利潤率將在 44% 至 45% 的範圍內。調整後的攤薄每股收益預計在 9 美元至 9.50 美元之間。就中期而言，我們將維持之前傳達的增長目標，並將基準年重置為 2022 年。

And in summary, we made strong progress in the fourth quarter to position the business for success, closing out what we'd characterize as both a challenging and a productive year. And indeed, against the backdrop of macroeconomic headwinds, we've continued to unlock the growing potential of MA and reinforced the foundation for MIS to capture the immense opportunity we see once issuance levels recover.

總而言之，我們在第四季度取得了長足的進步，為業務的成功定位，結束了我們認為既充滿挑戰又富有成效的一年。事實上，在宏觀經濟逆風的背景下，我們繼續釋放 MA 不斷增長的潛力，並加強了 MIS 的基礎，以便在發行水平恢復後抓住我們看到的巨大機會。

So we've entered 2023 in a position of strength, and I have tremendous confidence in the growth potential of the business as we continue to execute and invest in building Moody's as the leading provider of integrated perspectives on risk. And with that, Mark and I would be pleased to take your questions. Operator?

因此，我們已經進入 2023 年，我對業務的增長潛力充滿信心，因為我們將繼續執行和投資，將穆迪打造成風險綜合觀點的領先提供商。有了這個，馬克和我很樂意回答你的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

Rob, I just wanted to touch on that -- the medium-term guidance for the ratings business, which you maintained at low to mid-single digits even though the base, I guess, has come down a lot. I just wanted to try and flush through a little bit more in your assumptions. I always thought it was a GDP plus 3 to 4 type pricing business, and your competitor obviously had a more optimistic outlook there, too. So just trying to understand how you guys are thinking through that.

羅布，我只想談一談評級業務的中期指導，儘管我猜基數已經下降了很多，但你仍然保持在低到中個位數。我只是想嘗試在你的假設中多一點點。我一直認為這是 GDP 加上 3 到 4 類型的定價業務，而你的競爭對手顯然也有更樂觀的前景。所以只是想了解你們是如何思考的。

Yes. Manav, we've gotten some questions around how quickly things are effectively going to snap back to 2020 and '21. And just to kind of put that in perspective, 2021 total issuance was more than 35%, higher than the average from '09 to 2022 if you exclude the 2020 and '21 years. So those 2 pandemic years were, in fact, extraordinary and unusual years. And so obviously, we are re-baselining off of what we believe are, in fact, kind of more normalized levels of issuance. In fact, if you look at 2022 total issuance, it was down something like 5% from that average that I was talking about, that historical average.

是的。 Manav，我們收到了一些關於事情能以多快的速度有效地回到 2020 年和 21 年的問題。從某種角度來看，如果排除 2020 年和 21 年，2021 年的總發行量超過 35%，高於 09 年至 2022 年的平均水平。因此，那兩年大流行的年份實際上是不平凡和不尋常的年份。很明顯，我們正在重新設定我們認為實際上更正常化的發行水平的基準。事實上，如果你看一下 2022 年的總發行量，它比我所說的歷史平均水平下降了大約 5%。

But another way to kind of look at this, Manav, and you're kind of, I think, getting at, is there also some upside to the way we're thinking about the medium term? So while overall issuance in 2022 was about 5% below that historical average ex those 2 extraordinary years, if you look at corporate issuance, it was down something like 15%. And if you look at the mix of corporate issuance as a percent of total issuance, we're actually down a good bit in 2022 and as we kind of look forward.

但另一種看待這個問題的方式，Manav，你有點，我認為，我們正在考慮中期的方式是否也有一些好處？因此，儘管 2022 年的總發行量比這 2 個非凡年份的歷史平均水平低約 5%，但如果你看一下公司發行量，就會下降約 15%。如果你看一下公司發行佔總發行量的百分比，我們實際上在 2022 年下降了很多，正如我們期待的那樣。

So I think in a way, there's been a mix shift against us here. And so if you think that there's more opportunity for corporate issuance as a percent of the total, there might be some upside to the way we think about the medium term.

所以我認為在某種程度上，這裡出現了對我們不利的混合轉變。因此，如果你認為公司發行佔發行總量的百分比有更多機會，那麼我們對中期的看法可能會有一些上行空間。

Yes. And add on to just Rob's remarks, that we do recognize that some investors may now see this guidance as being slightly conservative in nature. We do remain open to the possibility of revisiting and looking at this specific target once we have better insight into the macroeconomic and the issuance environment as the year unfolds.

是的。再加上 Rob 的評論，我們確實認識到一些投資者現在可能認為該指導在本質上略顯保守。一旦我們對宏觀經濟和發行環境有了更好的了解，我們確實對重新審視和審視這一具體目標的可能性持開放態度。

Okay, got it. Makes sense. And then Mark, just perhaps maybe even an open-ended question to talk about the expense ramp and stuff that you typically do. But what I was looking for is the expense savings that you've talked about, like how does that split between the 2 segments?

好，知道了。說得通。然後馬克，也許甚至是一個開放式的問題來談論費用增加和你通常做的事情。但我一直在尋找的是您所說的節省費用，比如這兩個部分之間如何分配？

Manav, thank you. So maybe let me start firstly with the expense ramp. So we anticipate operating growth inclusive of the annual merit increases, the reset of our incentive compensation and then our incremental organic investments to contribute to an expense ramp of between $10 million and $30 million between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 that exclude any restructuring-related items.

馬納夫，謝謝你。所以也許讓我首先從費用上升開始。因此，我們預計運營增長包括年度績效增長、激勵薪酬的重置以及增量有機投資，將在 2022 年第四季度至 2023 年第一季度期間增加 1000 萬至 3000 萬美元的費用，排除任何與重組相關的項目。

And then from the first quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect expenses to remain relatively stable and only ramp between $10 million and $20 million. And that's primarily as we realize the benefits of both our 2022, 2023 geolocation restructuring program and any additional cost efficiency actions.

然後從 2023 年第一季度到 2023 年第四季度，我們預計支出將保持相對穩定，只會增加 1000 萬美元到 2000 萬美元之間。這主要是因為我們意識到我們的 2022 年、2023 年地理定位重組計劃和任何額外的成本效率行動的好處。

On your second sub-question, restructuring, so through year-end 2023, we still expect to incur up to $170 million in aggregate charges, and that will be split into $70 million to $90 million for MIS and $65 million to $80 million for MA, and that's related to both the real estate rationalization and the reduction of personnel as we selectively downsize and utilize alternative lower-cost locations.

關於你的第二個子問題，重組，所以到 2023 年底，我們仍預計將產生高達 1.7 億美元的總費用，這將分為 MIS 的 7000 萬至 9000 萬美元和 MA 的 6500 萬至 8000 萬美元，這與房地產合理化和人員減少有關，因為我們有選擇地縮小規模並利用替代的低成本地點。

For the full year 2022, we were able to accelerate some of our actions. And so we accrued $114 million in total restructuring charges for the year, and that is indeed up from the $85 million we guided to back in October. And that splits into approximately $49 million for MA and $65 million for MIS. And then finally, looking forward, we estimate we'll incur up to [$15 million] in incremental pretax personnel-related charges and $20 million to $40 million in real estate charges in 2023.

在 2022 年全年，我們能夠加快我們的一些行動。因此，我們今年的重組費用總額為 1.14 億美元，這確實高於我們 10 月份指導的 8500 萬美元。這分為 MA 約 4900 萬美元和 MIS 約 6500 萬美元。最後，展望未來，我們估計到 2023 年我們將承擔高達 [1500 萬美元] 的增量稅前人員相關費用和 2000 萬至 4000 萬美元的房地產費用。

Your next question comes from the line of Owen Lau from Oppenheimer.

你的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Owen Lau。

I have a question related to the previous one but it's related to seasonality. Could you please give a sense of maybe the seasonality in terms of the revenue and also margin expectation on a quarterly basis in 2023?

我有一個與上一個問題相關的問題，但它與季節性有關。您能否從收入和 2023 年季度利潤率預期方面了解一下季節性？

Owen, so our central case assumption is for the cyclical market disruption that we experienced during the majority of 2022 to really persist through the first half of 2023. And as a result, for MIS, we expect the transaction revenue to be significantly weaker in the first half vis-à-vis the second half of the year when prior period comparables, the capital market conditions and spreads become more constructive.

歐文，所以我們的中心案例假設是我們在 2022 年的大部分時間裡經歷的周期性市場混亂將真正持續到 2023 年上半年。因此，對於 MIS，我們預計交易收入在上半年與下半年相比，資本市場狀況和利差變得更具建設性。

So specifically, the midpoint of our full year 2023 MIS revenue guidance implies first half revenue to decline in the low teens percent range and second half revenue to grow in the mid-20s percent range. And that also underscores our expectation then for higher MIS margins in the second half of the year versus the first half of the year.

因此，具體而言，我們 2023 年全年 MIS 收入指引的中點意味著上半年收入將下降至 15% 左右，下半年收入將增長至 20% 左右。這也突顯了我們對今年下半年 MIS 利潤率高於上半年的預期。

If I look at MA, we forecasted full year 2023 total revenue will increase by approximately 10%, and that's underpinned by broad-based strength across all lines of business. And given that MA revenue is highly recurring, we expect absolute dollar MA revenue to progressively increase over the course of 2023. And as such, we expect MA's first quarter adjusted operating margin to be similar to our actual fourth quarter 2022 margin before improving through the remainder of the year, obviously, as revenue increases and as we realize the benefits of our cost savings.

如果我看一下 MA，我們預測 2023 年全年總收入將增長約 10%，這得到了所有業務領域廣泛實力的支持。鑑於 MA 收入是高度經常性的，我們預計 MA 絕對美元收入將在 2023 年期間逐步增加。因此，我們預計 MA 第一季度調整後的營業利潤率將與我們 2022 年第四季度的實際利潤率相似，然後通過顯然，隨著收入的增加以及我們意識到節省成本的好處，今年剩餘時間。

In addition, as we expand our product capability suite, as we continue to grow the size of our sales force to meet customer demand, we anticipate ARR to also steadily increase throughout the year. And it's going to be similar to what we saw in 2022, ultimately achieving low double-digit percent growth by the end of 2023.

此外，隨著我們擴展產品功能套件，隨著我們繼續擴大銷售隊伍規模以滿足客戶需求，我們預計 ARR 全年也將穩步增長。它將與我們在 2022 年看到的情況類似，最終到 2023 年底實現兩位數的低增長率。

On Moody's total operating expenses, our guidance here is for an increase in the low single-digit percent range. And while we don't typically provide expense growth forecast by segment, given we anticipate the majority of our 2023 strategic investments to support MA revenue growth opportunities, the full year segment operating expense guidance would be along the lines of low to mid-single-digit percent decline in MIS and a high single-digit percent growth in MA.

關於穆迪的總運營費用，我們的指導意見是在較低的個位數百分比範圍內增加。雖然我們通常不按細分市場提供費用增長預測，但鑑於我們預計 2023 年的大部分戰略投資將支持 MA 收入增長機會，全年細分市場運營費用指導將遵循中低單- MIS 的百分比下降和 MA 的高個位數百分比增長。

And then finally, for EPS modeling purposes, I'd just like to remind you our first quarter effective tax rate tends to be lower compared to the full year results, and that's simply due to the excess tax benefits around employee stock-based compensation.

最後，出於 EPS 建模的目的，我只想提醒您，與全年結果相比，我們第一季度的有效稅率往往較低，這僅僅是由於員工股票薪酬的超額稅收優惠。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh from Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Really nice results. If we went back, you were able to reaffirm the medium-term targets. Obviously, you reset the base here but a pretty dramatic shift in '22 relative to initial expectations. I don't know if this would be for who, but just any thoughts on puts and takes? Is it the analytics have been overperforming a little bit relative to the downturn in MIS? Just any puts and takes as you think about kind of what the initial targets were?

非常好的結果。如果我們回去，您就可以重申中期目標。顯然，您在這裡重置了基礎，但相對於最初的預期，'22 發生了相當大的變化。我不知道這是否適合誰，但只是對 puts 和 takes 有什麼想法嗎？相對於管理信息系統的低迷，分析是否表現得有點過火了？當您考慮最初的目標是什麼時，只是任何看跌期權嗎？

Kevin, it's Mark. So maybe I'll start -- just thematically, I'll start with our base case assumptions because our medium-term guidance, as you know, refers to a time period within 5 years, with 2022 as the base year. And that incorporates various assumptions as of the end of January. And those include, for example, U.S. and euro area GDP to stagnate in the near term, followed by recovery, U.S. 10-year treasury yield to stabilize, fluctuating modestly around current levels, issuers continuing to refinance maturing debt. And then on the MA side, customer retention rates to remain in line with historic levels, and of course, pricing initiatives to align with prior practices and our enhancements to customer value.

凱文，是馬克。所以也許我會開始 - 就主題而言，我將從我們的基本案例假設開始，因為如您所知，我們的中期指導指的是 5 年內的時間段，以 2022 年為基準年。這包含了截至 1 月底的各種假設。其中包括，例如，美國和歐元區 GDP 近期停滯不前，隨後復蘇，美國 10 年期國債收益率趨於穩定，在當前水平附近溫和波動，發行人繼續為到期債務再融資。然後在 MA 方面，客戶保留率與歷史水平保持一致，當然，定價舉措與先前的做法和我們對客戶價值的提升保持一致。

If I maybe pick, to your question, 2 specific examples, maybe 2 tailwinds to headwinds. On the tailwinds side, issuance activity tends to track GDP growth over the medium to long term, and our central case models GDP expansion at a level consistent with what prevailed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. And we've used our GDP and interest rate predictions from Moody's Analytics forecast, which shows that the 2014 to 2019 average annual real GDP growth was between 2% and 3%, and that's sort of what we expect going forward.

如果我可以針對您的問題選擇 2 個具體示例，可能是 2 個順風到逆風。在順風方面，發行活動往往會在中長期內跟踪 GDP 增長，而我們的中心案例模擬 GDP 擴張水平與 COVID-19 大流行之前的普遍水平一致。我們使用了穆迪分析預測中的 GDP 和利率預測，該預測顯示 2014 年至 2019 年年均實際 GDP 增長率在 2% 至 3% 之間，這正是我們對未來的預期。

The second tailwind is something we spoke about extensively on prior calls, that's based on our maturity wall studies. U.S. corporates have $1.9 trillion in maturing debt. The majority, we expect to be refinanced. Similarly, European corporates have refunding needs around $2.1 trillion.

第二順風是我們在之前的電話會議上廣泛談到的，這是基於我們的成熟度牆研究。美國企業有 1.9 萬億美元的到期債務。大多數，我們預計會再融資。同樣，歐洲企業的退款需求約為 2.1 萬億美元。

And then on the headwinds side, the first one maybe is worth noting is we do project interest rate increases -- sorry, we do project interest rates are going to remain elevated, and that may potentially impact opportunistic financing. For example, in the U.S., we model a near-term increase in the 10-year treasury yield. And then we expect that to remain roughly stable at that 4% through 2027.

然後在逆風方面，第一個可能值得注意的是我們計劃加息 - 抱歉，我們確實計劃利率將保持高位，這可能會影響機會主義融資。例如，在美國，我們模擬了 10 年期國債收益率的近期增長。然後我們預計到 2027 年將大致穩定在 4%。

And then finally, in resetting our medium-term target base to 2022, we have assumed constant currency foreign exchange rates over the 5-year period, specifically the euro at [EUR 1.07] and the pound at [GBP 1.20]. And that shows dollar appreciation versus the original rates we gave in February last year, which were $1.14 and $1.35.

最後，在將我們的中期目標基數重置為 2022 年時，我們假設 5 年期間貨幣匯率不變，特別是歐元 [EUR 1.07] 和英鎊 [GBP 1.20]。這表明美元相對於我們去年 2 月給出的原始匯率 1.14 美元和 1.35 美元升值。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Kramm from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Alex Kramm。

Can you just shift gears to capital allocation for a second? Maybe I missed it, but the $250 million in share repurchases seems fairly low relative to what you've been doing in the past and obviously also the free cash flow guidance. So is there a shift of thinking on what are the uses of cash? And then obviously, does that also suggest that maybe on the M&A side, you've taken a harder look, again, maybe in a different environment from a buyer and seller perspective?

你能暫時把注意力轉向資本配置嗎？也許我錯過了，但 2.5 億美元的股票回購相對於你過去一直在做的事情來說似乎相當低，顯然還有自由現金流量指導。那麼，人們對現金用途的看法是否發生了轉變？然後很明顯，這是否也表明，也許在併購方面，您再次從買家和賣家的角度進行了更深入的研究，也許是在不同的環境中？

Alex, best place for me to start is to reaffirm that our capital planning and allocation strategy is unchanged. We remain committed to anchoring our financial leverage around a BBB+ rating, which provides, in our view, the appropriate balance between ensuring ongoing financial flexibility and lowering the cost of capital.

亞歷克斯，對我來說最好的開始是重申我們的資本規劃和分配策略沒有改變。我們仍然致力於圍繞 BBB+ 評級錨定我們的財務槓桿，我們認為，這在確保持續的財務靈活性和降低資本成本之間提供了適當的平衡。

Given, however, that our gross leverage as of year-end was above 2.5x, and that, as we know, is driven by the cyclical market conditions we just experienced. As we head into 2023, we want to retain the financial flexibility to marginally deliver our balance sheet and improve our gross outstanding debt position if needed.

然而，鑑於我們截至年底的總槓桿率高於 2.5 倍，而且正如我們所知，這是由我們剛剛經歷的周期性市場狀況驅動的。在我們進入 2023 年之際，我們希望保持財務靈活性，以邊際交付我們的資產負債表，並在需要時改善我們的未償債務總額。

And that's similar to the actions that we took in the fourth quarter through our tender offer. And what that means for 2023 is our plan is to return approximately $800 million of our global free cash flow. It's about 53% at the midpoint, to our stockholders, subject, of course, to available cash, market conditions, M&A opportunities, et cetera.

這類似於我們在第四季度通過要約收購採取的行動。這對 2023 年意味著我們的計劃是返還大約 8 億美元的全球自由現金流。對於我們的股東來說，這大約是中點的 53%，當然，這取決於可用現金、市場條件、併購機會等。

And that includes, to your question, the share repurchase guidance of $250 million and approximately $560 million in dividends through a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per share, which is 10% up from our prior quarterly dividend. And it's all about creating that flexibility to evaluate opportunities as the year goes on.

對於你的問題，這包括 2.5 億美元的股票回購指導和約 5.6 億美元的股息，季度股息為每股 0.77 美元，比我們之前的季度股息高出 10%。隨著時間的推移，這一切都是為了創造靈活性來評估機會。

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Toni Kaplan。

Wanted to ask about the free cash flow guide. Part of the reason why it was maybe a little bit lower than what I thought was the CapEx sort of staying at the $300 million range, roughly, let's call it like 5% of revenue. Should we expect that level to continue? Are you at sort of a different CapEx just percentage-wise because of the change in model? Or I guess, what's driving it? Is 5% the right number to be thinking about for future years as well?

想問一下自由現金流量指南。它可能比我想像的要低一點的部分原因是資本支出保持在 3 億美元的範圍內，大致來說，我們稱之為收入的 5%。我們應該期望這個水平繼續下去嗎？由於模型的變化，您是否只是在百分比方面有所不同？或者我猜，是什麼在驅動它？ 5% 是否也是為未來幾年考慮的正確數字？

Toni, thank you for your question. Let me maybe start by saying the midpoint of our cash flow guidance range implies growth of approximately 25% off of our reported 2022 free cash flow result. And that's well above the projected midpoint, which is low double digits for our U.S. GAAP net income.

托尼，謝謝你的問題。讓我首先說我們的現金流指導範圍的中點意味著我們報告的 2022 年自由現金流結果增長約 25%。這遠高於預期的中點，這是我們美國 GAAP 淨收入的低兩位數。

And in addition, what that really means is at the midpoint, the free cash flow to U.S. GAAP net income conversion ratio is approximately 100%. And that's effectively equal to the average free cash flow conversion ratio that we've had over the last 4 years, meaning specifically from 2019 to 2022. So we feel pretty comfortable with that as a result.

此外，這真正意味著在中點，自由現金流與美國公認會計原則淨收入的轉換率約為 100%。這實際上等於我們過去 4 年的平均自由現金流轉換率，特別是從 2019 年到 2022 年。因此，我們對此感到非常滿意。

In terms of CapEx, 2022 actual result was $283 million. We're guiding to approximately $300 million, i.e., a similar level. And there are a number of factors underpinning that guidance, specifically, for example, continued M&A integration activity, for example, related to PassFort or kompany or RMS. There's ongoing enhancements to IT platform and our real estate infrastructure associated with the workplace of the future program.

就資本支出而言，2022 年的實際結果為 2.83 億美元。我們指導大約 3 億美元，即類似的水平。並且有許多因素支持該指導，特別是，例如，持續的併購整合活動，例如與 PassFort 或 kompany 或 RMS 相關的活動。 IT 平台和我們與未來計劃工作場所相關的房地產基礎設施正在不斷增強。

But one of the big drivers that will carry forward into 2023 is effectively the higher amount of capitalizable work under GAAP related to our SaaS-based solutions for our customers. And that ties in directly with the underlying business's strategic shift to provide more SaaS-based, more recurring revenue solutions within MA. And so I think it's a step-up in 2023. I don't think we'll see a separate step-up in future years, but that's really what's driving the underlying numbers.

但是，將延續到 2023 年的一大推動因素實際上是 GAAP 下與我們為客戶提供的基於 SaaS 的解決方案相關的更多可資本化工作。這與基礎業務的戰略轉變直接相關，即在 MA 內提供更多基於 SaaS 的、更多經常性收入解決方案。因此，我認為這是 2023 年的一個升級。我認為未來幾年我們不會看到單獨的升級，但這確實是推動基本數字的原因。

Terrific. And just as a really quick follow-up. I know last quarter, you were sort of saying that you thought third quarter and fourth quarter would be the trough for the issuance declines, and that it should improve throughout 2023, in particular, second half. I feel like there's some consistency in the messaging that second half is going to be better than the first half. But like, I guess, have you delayed your expectation for issuance recovery? Or is it still similar to where you were thinking it was going to be last quarter?

了不起。就像一個非常快速的跟進。我知道上個季度，你有點說你認為第三季度和第四季度將是發行量下降的低谷，並且應該在整個 2023 年有所改善，尤其是下半年。我覺得下半年會比上半年更好的消息傳遞有一定的一致性。但是，我想，你是否推遲了對發行恢復的預期？或者它是否仍然與您認為上個季度的情況相似？

Not really -- Toni, it's Rob. Not really a change. It's pretty consistent with how we thought about it last quarter. I think one thing you're hearing from us is just the first quarter of 2022 has a relatively robust issuance here. So there is the matter of comps, but I don't think there's any fundamental change from how we were thinking about the kind of troughing and recovery in issuance.

不是——托尼，是羅布。不是真正的改變。這與我們上個季度的想法非常一致。我認為你從我們這裡聽到的一件事是，2022 年第一季度的發行量相對強勁。所以有 comp 的問題，但我認為我們對發行的低谷和復甦的思考方式沒有任何根本性的變化。

Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ashish Sabadra。

I wanted to focus on the Moody's Analytics business. We saw some pretty good robust strength there and the guidance also implies further acceleration. Mark, in your -- in response to a prior question, you talked about the seasonality but also talked about like a similar growth profile across all 3 units within MA. But it seems like based on that bubble chart on Slide 9, that you may have some faster growth businesses within Decision Solutions. So I just wanted to better understand how should we think about some of the growth businesses within all the 3 segments within MA.

我想專注於穆迪分析業務。我們在那裡看到了一些相當不錯的強勁實力，而且該指導還意味著進一步加速。馬克，在回答先前的問題時，您談到了季節性，但也談到了 MA 內所有 3 個單位的類似增長情況。但似乎基於幻燈片 9 上的氣泡圖，您可能在 Decision Solutions 中擁有一些增長更快的業務。所以我只是想更好地理解我們應該如何考慮 MA 所有 3 個細分市場中的一些增長業務。

Yes. Ashish, it's Rob. Let me -- maybe let me start since the question is really about MA growth. Maybe let me just start with kind of the ARR, and then I can zero in a little bit on kind of what's contributing to that. But we talked about on the last call that we've got RMS now in the MA ARR figure. And I think we've also talked about the fact that RMS is not quite yet growing at the same rate as MA overall. We're still executing on the synergy opportunities in order to accelerate that growth. We believe we're on track but there's still work to do.

是的。阿希什，是羅布。讓我 - 也許讓我開始，因為問題實際上是關於 MA 增長的。也許讓我從某種 ARR 開始，然後我可以將對此做出貢獻的類型歸零。但我們在上次電話會議上談到，我們現在在 MA ARR 圖中得到了 RMS。而且我認為我們還討論了 RMS 尚未以與 MA 整體相同的速度增長的事實。我們仍在利用協同機會來加速增長。我們相信我們正在走上正軌，但仍有工作要做。

So the reported figure of 10% had about a 1.5% drag from RMS. So excluding that, we would have been -- had ARR at about 11.4%. And you might remember that back in the third quarter, we were talking about 10%. So we're seeing some very nice acceleration of ARR on a like-for-like basis. And I think that goes to the expanded capabilities that we've got now to attract both new customers and to better serve and expand our relationships with existing customers. Frankly, we had some great execution by our sales teams in the fourth quarter. And that was a real area of investment for us as you've heard us talk about.

因此，報告的 10% 數字對 RMS 造成了大約 1.5% 的拖累。因此，如果不考慮這一點，我們本來可以——ARR 約為 11.4%。你可能還記得，在第三季度，我們談論的是 10%。因此，我們在類似的基礎上看到了 ARR 的一些非常好的加速。我認為這與我們現在吸引新客戶以及更好地服務和擴展我們與現有客戶的關係的擴展能力有關。坦率地說，我們的銷售團隊在第四季度執行得很好。正如您聽到我們談論的那樣，這對我們來說是一個真正的投資領域。

But it's not a one-trick pony either. I think that's the other interesting thing. We're trying to get that message across with that bubble chart. We frequently talk about KYC as kind of our high flyer, and it is. It continues to have very strong momentum. But you can also see our life insurance business. You can see our banking business, and you also see, I think, interestingly, we wanted to show 2 of our -- what I think of as kind of more mature product lines, which are the CreditView research and our Orbis offering.

但它也不是只會一招的小馬。我認為這是另一件有趣的事情。我們正試圖通過氣泡圖傳達該信息。我們經常將 KYC 視為我們的高傳單，事實確實如此。它繼續保持非常強勁的勢頭。但你也可以看到我們的人壽保險業務。你可以看到我們的銀行業務，你也可以看到，我認為，有趣的是，我們想展示我們的兩條 - 我認為是更成熟的產品線，即 CreditView 研究和我們的 Orbis 產品。

So there is data that's in the KYC. So this result you see there for Orbis is kind of everything excluding KYC use cases for the data. And both of those are growing at a high single-digit ARR growth rate. So we feel very good about kind of the portfolio. And again, if you think about the strategy, it's been about identifying risk assessment use cases and then threading through these kinds of capabilities to help our customers with a range of kind of risk and decision-making. So some very good momentum in the portfolio.

所以 KYC 中有數據。因此，您在 Orbis 那裡看到的這個結果是除數據的 KYC 用例之外的所有內容。這兩者都以高個位數的 ARR 增長率增長。因此，我們對某種投資組合感到非常滿意。再一次，如果你考慮這個策略，它是關於識別風險評估用例，然後通過這些功能來幫助我們的客戶應對一系列風險和決策。因此，投資組合中有一些非常好的勢頭。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Jeff Silber。

In your prepared remarks, you talked a little bit about some of the indicators you're seeing to give you confidence about a global debt issuance rebound in the second half of the year. Can we get some examples of what you're looking for, what we should be looking for?

在你準備好的發言中，你談到了一些你看到的指標，這些指標讓你對今年下半年全球債務發行反彈充滿信心。我們能否舉例說明您正在尋找什麼，我們應該尋找什麼？

Yes. It's Rob. So maybe let me talk about both, what I think could provide some upside as well as also what could provide some headwind to our outlook. So I'll start with the upside. We talked a lot about, on the last call, just the market's need to get more certainty around the trajectory of inflation and getting certainty that inflation was starting to peak because that then informs the Federal Reserve actions and the market wanting to understand whether we're near the end of the tightening cycle. And you can see, as we then went through the fourth quarter, end of the year and into January, the market getting some confidence and you see the issuance that started.

是的。是羅布。所以也許讓我談談兩者，我認為可以提供一些好處以及可以為我們的前景帶來一些不利因素。所以我將從好的方面開始。在上次電話會議上，我們談了很多，只是市場需要更加確定通脹軌跡，並確定通脹開始見頂，因為這會通知美聯儲采取行動，市場希望了解我們是否“緊縮週期即將結束。你可以看到，當我們經歷第四季度、年底和 1 月時，市場獲得了一些信心，你看到發行開始了。

We also talked about where you're going to see that. And so I think that's interesting to understand. You're first going to see, as the markets open up, opportunistic investment-grade issuance. There's the folks with the best access to the market. Then you're going to see, and we have started to see, the higher-rated spec grid names coming to the market. So the B, A names. And then eventually, you start to see the single B names coming to the market, and we have seen a few of those. In fact, we've seen our first couple of dividend recaps in months. And it's that kind of activity that starts to give you confidence that the market is opening up.

我們還討論了您將在哪裡看到它。所以我認為理解這一點很有趣。隨著市場的開放，你首先會看到機會主義的投資級發行。這些人最容易進入市場。然後你會看到，我們已經開始看到，更高等級的規格網格名稱進入市場。所以B，A的名字。然後最終，你開始看到市場上出現單一的 B 名字，我們已經看到了其中的一些。事實上，我們已經看到了幾個月來的前幾次股息回顧。正是這種活動開始讓您相信市場正在開放。

Now I would say it's -- I'm going to use the word, kind of a fragile recovery because there's still plenty of headline and event risk. But we are starting to see that. You saw a very robust month in January for investment grade. You saw high yield start to pick up in leverage loans, started quite slowly, but we're starting to see some leverage loan activity as well.

現在我要說的是——我要用這個詞，一種脆弱的複蘇，因為仍然有很多頭條新聞和事件風險。但我們開始看到這一點。您在 1 月份看到了投資級別非常強勁的月份。你看到槓桿貸款中的高收益開始回升，開始相當緩慢，但我們也開始看到一些槓桿貸款活動。

M&A, we have a fairly muted forecast for M&A, kind of a flattish assumption built into our outlook. That could provide some upside if we see M&A activity pick up. And I would look to the sponsor-backed M&A and LBO activity as a place where the sponsors have a lot of dry powder to put to work. And so that would be something to look for.

併購，我們對併購的預測相當低調，這是我們展望中的一種持平假設。如果我們看到併購活動回升，這可能會提供一些上行空間。我會將贊助商支持的併購和槓桿收購活動視為贊助商可以投入大量乾粉的地方。因此，這將是需要尋找的東西。

Just quickly in terms of what could the derailers or the headlines would be -- yes, sure.

很快就出軌因素或頭條新聞會是什麼——是的，當然。

Sorry. No, no, you broke up there. Sorry about that.

對不起。不，不，你在那里分手了。對於那個很抱歉。

No, sorry. Just in terms of -- just very quickly, Jeff, what could provide a few headwinds. There is, as I said, a headline risk, both in terms of inflation prints and what that means for what the Fed is going to do, but -- and just in general, any unanticipated policy actions by central banks. And that's something I'd talked about even last year. The central banks have a pretty tough assignment on their hands to both deal with inflation and engineer a soft landing. So I think we're going to be keeping a close eye on all that.

不，對不起。就- 很快，傑夫，什麼會帶來一些不利因素。正如我所說，無論是在通脹數據方面，還是在美聯儲將要採取的行動方面，都存在重大風險，但總的來說，央行的任何意外政策行動都是如此。這是我什至在去年就談到過的事情。中央銀行肩負著一項艱鉅的任務，既要應對通脹，又要實現軟著陸。所以我認為我們將密切關注這一切。

Your next question comes from the line of George Tong from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 George Tong。

You expect 2023 MIS revenue to increase low to mid-single digits, and that's based on an assumption of low single-digit growth in global debt issuance volumes. If you assume pricing growth of perhaps 4% to 5%, given higher inflation, the guide implies a degree of negative mix from issuance. That said, it looks like you're expecting high yield and structured issuance to be the fastest-growing categories in 2023. And these are generally favorable from a pricing mix perspective. So can you help bridge your assumptions for MIS revenue growth and global debt issuance volume growth in 2023?

您預計 2023 年 MIS 收入將以中低個位數增長，這是基於全球債務發行量以低個位數增長的假設為基礎的。如果你假設定價增長可能為 4% 到 5%，鑑於更高的通貨膨脹率，該指南暗示了發行的一定程度的負面組合。也就是說，您似乎預計高收益和結構性發行將成為 2023 年增長最快的類別。從定價組合的角度來看，這些通常是有利的。那麼，您能否幫助彌合您對 2023 年 MIS 收入增長和全球債務發行量增長的假設？

George, I think you've got it about right. I mean that's why we've got a range that we've included there for our outlook. And maybe let me just -- it might be helpful, George, just to touch on, for a moment, how we're thinking about 2023 issuance outlook. And there are a wide range, I think, of views, probably a wider range than I can remember in recent memory around what's going to happen with outlook. And as you start to zero in on what's accounting for the difference, it really, I think, is largely around folks' expectation around leverage finance issuance.

喬治，我想你說得對。我的意思是這就是為什麼我們有一個我們已經包含在我們的前景中的範圍。也許讓我 - 喬治，這可能會有所幫助，只是暫時談談我們如何考慮 2023 年的發行前景。我認為，關於 outlook 將會發生什麼，存在廣泛的觀點，可能比我最近記憶中所記得的範圍更廣。當你開始對造成差異的原因歸零時，我認為，這實際上主要是圍繞人們對槓桿融資發行的期望。

And I'll start with investment-grade. I mean, we expect that to grow modestly, something like 5% for the year. Leveraged finance, when we look at high yield, we're expecting growth of 25%. Last year was one of the slowest years on record. And I would acknowledge that we've got a little bit more of a cautious view than some folks in the market. I've seen some much more bullish forecasts for high-yield issuance.

我將從投資級開始。我的意思是，我們預計它會適度增長，今年大約增長 5%。槓桿融資，當我們考慮高收益時，我們預計增長 25%。去年是有記錄以來最緩慢的一年。我承認我們比市場上的一些人持謹慎態度。我已經看到一些對高收益債券發行更為樂觀的預測。

But in general, I think what is informing kind of our view is we've got an environment with higher funding costs. We've got the potential for a recession, and we've got a flattish M&A outlook. And so that's what's contributing to our view. I would acknowledge, George, that we've got a pretty healthy backlog of first-time mandates that did not go to market last year.

但總的來說，我認為我們的觀點是我們有一個融資成本更高的環境。我們有經濟衰退的可能性，我們的併購前景持平。這就是我們觀點的原因。喬治，我承認我們有大量積壓的首次授權，這些授權去年沒有上市。

Almost all of those are in the leveraged finance space, so there's some definite pent-up demand. And then leveraged loans, we think it's going to be flattish. And again, back to kind of Mark's commentary, kind of a tale of 2 halves. Loans had a very strong start to 2023. But -- so we expect that, that will pick up in the back half of the year -- for 2022, excuse me.

幾乎所有這些都在槓桿融資領域，因此存在一些明確的被壓抑的需求。然後是槓桿貸款，我們認為它會持平。再一次，回到馬克的評論，有點像兩半的故事。貸款在 2023 年開局非常強勁。但是——所以我們預計，這將在今年下半年回升——2022 年，對不起。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler from Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Jeff Meuler。

Rob, you hit on some of this when talking about M&A -- or MA more broadly, but I want to focus on Decision Solutions in Q4 specifically. It pretty significantly accelerated. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought RMS was in there, and you noted that's currently growing more slowly organically than, I guess, your heritage solutions. So just anything further you can say on what drove the organic acceleration in Decision Solutions in Q4 specifically? And is it underlying or is there anything unusual like one-timers like rev rec true-ups for full year usage or anything like that?

Rob，你在談論併購或更廣泛的 MA 時談到了其中的一些，但我想特別關注第四季度的決策解決方案。它相當顯著加速。如果我錯了請糾正我，但我認為 RMS 在那裡，而且你注意到它目前的有機增長速度比我猜的你的傳統解決方案慢。那麼，您可以進一步說明是什麼推動了第四季度決策解決方案的有機加速？它是潛在的還是有什麼不尋常的東西，比如一次性的，比如全年使用的 rev rec 調整或類似的東西？

Yes. Great question. Decision Solutions was a good story for the quarter, indeed. 15% growth on an organic constant dollar basis in the quarter. You will remember actually, last quarter, we kind of talked about Decision Solutions, a little bit lower reported growth rate print, so we're talking about the importance of kind of looking through that to ARR. That's still the case. And so if you look at kind of full year, we had about 11% growth in Decision Solutions ARR.

是的。很好的問題。 Decision Solutions 確實是本季度的一個好故事。本季度按有機不變美元計算增長 15%。實際上，你會記得，上個季度，我們談到了決策解決方案，報告的增長率印刷略低，所以我們正在談論通過這種方式審視 ARR 的重要性。現在還是這樣。因此，如果你看一下全年，我們的決策解決方案 ARR 增長了約 11%。

And we've really got strength in a number of areas. And I think I used that phrase, it's not a one-trick pony. And that's true. In KYC, we're up in that kind of mid -- low to mid-20s range. But we've also got a very nice life insurance business and a very nice banking business. The KYC business, we just got lots of demand not only for the data, but now we've got this life cycle product that I mentioned, which allows us to package the data with a workflow solution, gives us the opportunity to have even bigger engagements with our customers. So that's very, very helpful. And we launched that in the second half of last year.

我們在很多領域確實有實力。我想我用了那個短語，它不是只會一招的小馬。這是真的。在 KYC 中，我們處於那種中低到 20 年代中期的範圍。但我們也有非常好的人壽保險業務和非常好的銀行業務。 KYC 業務，我們不僅對數據有很多需求，而且現在我們有了我提到的這個生命週期產品，它允許我們用工作流解決方案打包數據，讓我們有機會擁有更大的與我們客戶的互動。所以這非常非常有幫助。我們在去年下半年推出了它。

But maybe just to focus in just a little bit more on the other 2 businesses. People are probably less familiar with it. We have a nice business. Obviously, RMS serves the property and casualty and reinsurance market. But we have had, for years, a business serving life insurance -- life insurers. And we've got a really powerful actuarial modeling platform and we've been able -- that is used by many of the world's largest insurers. And we've just been able to do what we've done with banking, frankly, which is to build a suite of solutions around risk and portfolio management and balance sheet management and capital planning and reporting.

但也許只是將注意力更多地集中在其他 2 項業務上。人們可能不太熟悉它。我們生意不錯。顯然，RMS 服務於財產和意外傷害以及再保險市場。但多年來，我們一直有一家為人壽保險服務的企業——人壽保險公司。我們擁有一個非常強大的精算建模平台，而且我們已經能夠做到這一點——世界上許多最大的保險公司都在使用它。坦率地說，我們剛剛能夠做我們在銀行業所做的事情，那就是圍繞風險和投資組合管理、資產負債表管理以及資本規劃和報告構建一套解決方案。

And one of the areas where we've had some really nice growth is around our risk integrity IFRS 17 solution. As you may be familiar, insurers are having to implement IFRS 17. So there's been a lot of demand to help our customers there. And then the other is banking. We've just seen some very nice growth with the kind of suite of solutions and banking across origination, risk and portfolio management and capital planning.

我們取得了一些非常好的增長的領域之一是我們的風險完整性 IFRS 17 解決方案。您可能很熟悉，保險公司必須實施 IFRS 17。因此，有很多需求需要幫助我們的客戶。然後另一個是銀行業。我們剛剛看到了一系列解決方案和銀行業務在發起、風險和投資組合管理以及資本規劃方面的一些非常好的增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

I just wanted to jump into that MA organic revenue growth guide of about 10%. When I look at MA's ARR in the fourth quarter coming in at 10% and then the guide really is for it to accelerate to low double digit in '23, I just felt with that accelerating backlog, the bias for MA organic revenue growth would be above 10%. Are there any kind of headwinds, maybe non-subscription revenues to note to kind of just kind of keep it about 10%?

我只是想跳轉到 MA 有機收入增長指南 10% 左右。當我看到 MA 在第四季度的 ARR 達到 10%，然後指南真的是讓它在 23 年加速到低兩位數時，我只是覺得隨著積壓的加速，MA 有機收入增長的偏差將是超過 10%。是否有任何不利因素，也許需要注意的非訂閱收入只是保持在 10% 左右？

Yes. One headwind -- as you know, Andrew, we've transitioned most of the portfolio to recurring revenue. I think it's something like 94%. But in the banking business is where we do have some -- still some kind of onetime. And you've heard us talk about moving away -- we've moved almost entirely away from onetime license revenue. We also have some services work, and we've been deemphasizing that and really focusing on the SaaS solution. So that's one place where you might see a small delta between kind of ARR and then translating to overall revenue.

是的。一個不利因素——正如你所知，安德魯，我們已經將大部分投資組合轉變為經常性收入。我認為大約是 94%。但在銀行業務中，我們確實有一些——仍然是一次性的。你聽說過我們談論離開——我們幾乎完全擺脫了一次性許可收入。我們也有一些服務工作，我們一直在強調這一點，真正專注於 SaaS 解決方案。所以這是一個地方，你可能會看到 ARR 與轉化為總收入之間的小差異。

Yes. And Andrew, just to add on to that, if you think about decomposing our guide of 10% organic constant currency growth for MA, you could think about recurring as growing in that low double-digit range when you think about transactional onetime declining in that high teens percent range.

是的。安德魯，補充一點，如果你考慮分解我們的 MA 10% 有機恆定貨幣增長指南，當你考慮交易一次性下降時，你可以考慮在那個低兩位數範圍內經常性增長高青少年百分比範圍。

Your next question comes from the line of Faiza Alwy from Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

I have 2 questions on the MIS midterm targets. First, I appreciate the conservatism on the top line. I'm curious that you left your margin target as is despite a lower sort of implied top line. So just wanted some more perspective on that. Is it related to the recent restructuring actions?

我有 2 個關於 MIS 中期目標的問題。首先，我欣賞頂線的保守主義。我很好奇，儘管隱含的頂線較低，但您仍保持原樣的保證金目標。所以只是想對此有更多的看法。是否與最近的重組行動有關？

And then second related question is, you mentioned a private credit market as one of the factors as you think about issuance. We've obviously seen significant expansion in that market in '22. So curious what your thoughts are around private product, both for '23 and as you thought about your medium-term targets.

然後第二個相關問題是，您提到私人信貸市場是您考慮發行的因素之一。我們顯然已經看到 22 年該市場的顯著擴張。很好奇你對私人產品有什麼看法，無論是對 23 年還是你對中期目標的看法。

On your question around the MIS adjusted operating margin, we are maintaining our expectation for MIS's medium-term margin to be in the low 60s percent range. And I certainly acknowledge that, that's a meaningful step-up compared to our new base year 2022 results and full year 2023 guidance. While this target is reflective of performance within 5 years, the key -- and I think this is the point that you were flushing out, the key to achieving it will naturally be influenced by the issuance recovery pattern we experienced in 2023 and beyond.

關於您關於 MIS 調整後營業利潤率的問題，我們維持對 MIS 中期利潤率處於 60% 低範圍內的預期。我當然承認，與我們新的 2022 年基準年結果和 2023 年全年指導相比，這是一個有意義的進步。雖然這個目標反映了 5 年內的業績，但關鍵——我認為這就是你所強調的重點，實現它的關鍵自然會受到我們在 2023 年及以後經歷的發行恢復模式的影響。

That said, MIS's medium- to long-term business fundamentals remain firmly intact. And we continue to believe that the disruption in the debt capital markets that we experienced in '22 was really cyclical. It wasn't structural in nature. And that view is informed by several data points and observations. For example, the stock of debt has steadily grown over the last several decades. The price to value is compelling for our customers. There are strong refinancing needs that can help buttress the future transactional revenue base. Credit spreads remain around that historical average.

儘管如此，MIS 的中長期業務基本面仍然完好無損。我們仍然相信，我們在 22 世紀經歷的債務資本市場的混亂確實是周期性的。它本質上不是結構性的。這種觀點是由幾個數據點和觀察結果得出的。例如，債務存量在過去幾十年中穩步增長。性價比對我們的客戶來說很有吸引力。強大的再融資需求可以幫助鞏固未來的交易收入基礎。信用利差保持在歷史平均水平附近。

And overall, I'd say that the interest burden is still relatively low for corporates. And these factors, in addition to the proactive and decisive expense management actions like we took last quarter, should help to stabilize the '23 margin in that mid-50s percent range, and that will help us obviously set a good base before expanding to that low 60s over the medium term.

總的來說，我認為企業的利息負擔仍然相對較低。這些因素，加上我們上個季度採取的積極果斷的費用管理措施，應該有助於將 23 世紀的利潤率穩定在 50% 左右的範圍內，這顯然會幫助我們在擴展到那個百分比之前打下良好的基礎中期低 60 年代。

Yes. One other thing I want to emphasize just around -- while we're talking about MIS margin expenses, and I've gotten these questions from folks over the last few months, is just around making sure we've got the right resources. And I want to assure you that we approached the restructuring exercise very, very thoughtfully. We monitor over $70 trillion in rated debt, and it is absolutely critical to us that we make sure that we've got the expertise and resources to not only monitor that stock of debt but also to be able to service the flow of new issuance.

是的。我想強調的另一件事——當我們談論 MIS 保證金費用時，我在過去幾個月裡從人們那裡得到了這些問題，就是要確保我們擁有正確的資源。我想向你保證，我們非常、非常周到地進行了重組工作。我們監控超過 70 萬億美元的評級債務，對我們來說絕對至關重要的是，我們要確保我們擁有專業知識和資源，不僅可以監控債務存量，還能夠為新發行的債券提供服務。

And so we just -- we approached that very thoughtfully, things like a typical span and layer exercise and thinking about initiatives that could be deprioritized and ways to get more efficient. And we're committed to getting more efficient in that business, and that's what you see with the medium-term target.

所以我們只是 - 我們非常深思熟慮地處理了這個問題，比如典型的跨度和層次練習，並考慮可以取消優先級的計劃以及提高效率的方法。我們致力於提高該業務的效率，這就是您在中期目標中看到的。

Let me touch just briefly on the private credit space. We talked about that on the last call. The private credit market has experienced some strong growth over the last few years. And I guess the way we've stepped back and tried to really think about it is, what is the opportunity for us to address that market and the needs of that market? Because we do think that we have a role to play in helping both asset managers and investors and borrowers.

讓我簡要談談私人信貸領域。我們在上次通話中談到了這一點。私人信貸市場在過去幾年經歷了一些強勁的增長。而且我想我們退後一步並試圖真正思考它的方式是，我們有什麼機會來解決那個市場和那個市場的需求？因為我們確實認為我們可以在幫助資產管理者、投資者和借款人方面發揮作用。

And we've got some very large relationships with many of the largest private credit lenders in the world. And you think about our relationships with the asset managers. We've got ratings on the asset managers themselves as well as their portfolio companies and CLOs and BDCs. And we also support them with a range of products across MAs. And we've been in some very active discussions with a range of players in this space.

我們與世界上許多最大的私人信貸機構建立了一些非常廣泛的關係。你想想我們與資產管理者的關係。我們對資產管理公司本身及其投資組合公司、CLO 和 BDC 進行了評級。我們還為他們提供跨 MA 的一系列產品。我們一直在與這個領域的一系列參與者進行一些非常積極的討論。

And we think that we've got more that we can do to serve them around some important use cases. That includes providing independent credit assessments to help investors to understand the credit quality of these portfolios that they're invested in but also to help the asset managers themselves around credit scoring, company data, benchmarking, portfolio management, ESG is another area.

我們認為我們可以做更多的事情來圍繞一些重要的用例為他們提供服務。這包括提供獨立的信用評估，以幫助投資者了解他們所投資的這些投資組合的信用質量，同時也幫助資產管理者自己圍繞信用評分、公司數據、基準、投資組合管理，ESG 是另一個領域。

So we think there's an opportunity here for us to do more. And we've got a number of things in the works across the company to be able to support the use cases around us.

所以我們認為我們有機會做更多。為了支持我們周圍的用例，我們在整個公司的工作中做了很多事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Shlomo Rosenbaum。

I want to ask a little bit about the MIS guidance just for 2023. When you look at the composite and the pieces of -- that you put in that support your outlook, how much of your guidance is dependent or focuses on kind of the refi walls that are sort of inherent support? And how much is it in terms of just assuming that market conditions tend to come -- get better over the course of the year and particularly in the second half of the year or just more dependent on things improving versus things that you can actually see? And maybe you can talk a little bit about that on vis-à-vis what you normally do this year. Is there any change?

我想稍微問一下 2023 年的 MIS 指南。當你查看複合材料和你放入的那些支持你的觀點的部分時，你的指南有多少依賴於或側重於 refi 的種類某種內在支撐的牆？就假設市場狀況趨向於在一年中變得更好，尤其是在今年下半年，或者只是更多地依賴於事情的改善而不是你實際看到的事情來說，這有多少？也許你可以談談你今年通常做的事情。有什麼變化嗎？

Shlomo, it's Rob. Maybe what I'll do, I mean, refi -- let me just kind of talk to you a little bit about the several different things that kind of go into how we think about issuance drivers and also kind of what our visibility and confidence level is around those. Refi is one of them. And the first thing I would say is just around mix, and we've talked about that a little bit, that there's obviously a wide range of what's going to happen with leveraged finance.

Shlomo，是 Rob。也許我會做的，我的意思是，refi——讓我和你談談我們如何看待發行驅動因素的幾件不同的事情，以及我們的知名度和信心水平圍繞那些。雷菲就是其中之一。我要說的第一件事就是混合，我們已經討論了一點，槓桿融資顯然會發生各種各樣的事情。

And I think we've got a little bit less certainty around that. Again, just the fact that there's a wide range of views across Wall Street means we have a little less confidence about what's going to happen, and that also contributes to why we have a range in our overall guide.

而且我認為我們對此的確定性有所降低。同樣，華爾街存在廣泛的觀點這一事實意味著我們對將要發生的事情的信心有所降低，這也有助於我們在整體指南中提供範圍。

When you think about the issuance in the -- coming from the financial institution space, there, we've got much more confidence as it translates to revenue, right, because of the kind of commercial relationships that we have with banks. Around refi, obviously, we've got great visibility in the refi walls themselves. There is a question about the extent of pull forward. That's always a question.

當您考慮來自金融機構領域的發行時，由於我們與銀行之間的商業關係，我們在轉化為收入時更有信心。顯然，在 refi 周圍，我們在 refi 牆本身有很好的能見度。有一個關於拉動程度的問題。這總是一個問題。

And I would say, look, we've looked at this before. It's a really, really rough number, but we kind of tend to think about kind of a little over 1/3 of kind of transaction revenue being supported in any given year by kind of those refi walls. And then you have to look at kind of what do we think is going to happen with market conditions, and that gets into rates and spreads. Spreads are very well correlated to default rates. We have great visibility around default rates. But obviously, there's volatility in the market that can make spreads move around at any given time.

我會說，看，我們以前看過這個。這是一個非常非常粗略的數字，但我們傾向於考慮在任何給定年份，這些再融資牆支持的交易收入略高於 1/3。然後你必須看看我們認為市場條件會發生什麼，這會影響利率和利差。利差與違約率密切相關。我們對違約率有很好的了解。但顯然，市場存在波動性，可以使價差在任何給定時間上下波動。

I talked about some of the headline risk that exists in 2023. And that's not something that we're able to capture in a forecast. Those kinds of events are binary. They either happen or they don't. And a great example is the -- kind of the debt ceiling issue. That creates some event risk for the market.

我談到了 2023 年存在的一些主要風險。這不是我們能夠在預測中捕捉到的東西。這些類型的事件是二元的。它們要么發生，要么不發生。一個很好的例子就是債務上限問題。這給市場帶來了一些事件風險。

So can't predict the future, but there are some things that we feel fairly comfortable about that give us insight into -- that help us kind of build to that outlook. So hopefully, that gives you a feel for it.

所以無法預測未來，但有些事情讓我們感到相當自在，這讓我們深入了解——幫助我們建立這種前景。所以希望這能讓你感受到它。

Okay. And if I could sneak in one just housekeeping. The AR DSO was up a little bit sequentially. Were there any deals that closed particularly towards the very end of the quarter that kind of pushed it up?

好的。如果我能偷偷溜進去一個只是家務。 AR DSO 依次上漲了一點。是否有任何交易特別是在本季度末結束，從而推高了它？

Shlomo, this is Mark here. This might be a record for a question on an earnings call around DSOs. I anticipate you're looking at our externally reported accounts receivable over, I think, 3 months revenue annualized. And I'm guessing you're seeing a number of around 115 in the fourth quarter, around, let's call it, 110 for full year. Internally, we're able to do a little bit more of a precise calculation because we can use sales.

Shlomo，我是 Mark。這可能是有關 DSO 的收益電話會議問題的記錄。我預計您正在查看我們外部報告的應收賬款，我認為是 3 個月的年化收入。我猜你會在第四季度看到大約 115 個數字，我們稱之為全年 110 個。在內部，我們能夠進行更精確的計算，因為我們可以使用銷售額。

And so if I think about ending sort of -- ending accounts receivable off of the -- divided by 3-month sales annualized, we get a much lower number of around 71 for the full year. That 71 days is a little bit up from what I saw in the last year. And the driver here is just around the integration of acquisitions into our corporate processes as we bring sort of that same discipline and rigor to the DSO processes of the companies we've acquired.

因此，如果我考慮結束某種形式——結束應收賬款——除以 3 個月的年化銷售額，我們得到的全年數字要低得多，約為 71。這 71 天比我去年看到的要長一些。這裡的驅動力是將收購整合到我們的公司流程中，因為我們將同樣的紀律和嚴謹性帶到了我們收購的公司的 DSO 流程中。

Your next question comes from the line of Russell Quelch from Redburn.

您的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Russell Quelch。

Just want to go back to this point around the MIS guidance, if I may, to start. If I pose it this way, we've got data that we've been presented with historically that shows there to be perhaps a 5% refi wall in '23 over '22. If I haircut that by a couple of percent for defaults which I think would be conservative, the starting point, therefore, is 3% growth.

如果可以的話，我只想回到 MIS 指導的這一點。如果我以這種方式提出，我們已經獲得了歷史上提供給我們的數據，這些數據表明在 23 年比 22 年可能有 5% 的再融資牆。如果我將違約率削減幾個百分點，我認為這是保守的，那麼起點是 3% 的增長。

And as George pointed out, historical pricing is 4% to 5% with the potential for a positive pricing mix, which would get me to sort of 8% to 10% as a baseline growth for next year. And that's without assuming anything for sort of new issuance recovery, and you said new issuance recovery is sort of low single digits. So I'm just trying to square that with this sort of low mid-single-digit guidance because it does seem like there's a big gap there between the way I've built it and what your guidance suggests.

正如喬治指出的那樣，歷史定價為 4% 至 5%，具有積極定價組合的潛力，這將使我將 8% 至 10% 作為明年的基準增長。而且這還沒有對新發行的複蘇做出任何假設，你說新發行的複蘇是低個位數。所以我只是想用這種中低個位數的指導來解決這個問題，因為在我構建它的方式和你的指導建議之間似乎存在很大差距。

This is Mark here. Russell, nice to have you on the call. One other element to add to your model is the reporting of MIS other revenues for 2023 vis-à-vis 2022. Those are down in the range of $10 million to $15 million primarily to reflect the incorporation of some of our ESG products and capabilities into our MA revenue set. That's really what's driving the difference between sort of the issuance outlook and the revenue outlook we provided this morning.

我是馬克。拉塞爾，很高興你接聽電話。要添加到模型中的另一個元素是 MIS 2023 年與 2022 年相比的其他收入報告。這些收入下降到 1000 萬美元到 1500 萬美元之間，主要是為了反映我們將一些 ESG 產品和功能納入我們的 MA 收入集。這確實是導致我們今天早上提供的發行前景和收入前景之間存在差異的原因。

Okay. I might follow up with you on that one. And then Mark, just another question, maybe flipping over to Decision Solutions. I appreciate there's been a few on this now. But wondered how much of the growth in Q4 was related to pricing. And how much might be related to you increasing cross-sells between the products where you've been investing in that growth? And if you would argue, there was upside risk to the guidance if corporate M&A activity recovers -- I'm sorry, that's the 10% guidance for MA.

好的。我可能會跟進你的那個。然後馬克，只是另一個問題，可能會轉到決策解決方案。我很感激現在已經有一些這樣的人了。但想知道第四季度的增長有多少與定價有關。有多少可能與您增加您一直投資於該增長的產品之間的交叉銷售有關？如果你會爭辯說，如果企業併購活動恢復，則指導存在上行風險——對不起，這是 MA 的 10% 指導。

What was that last bit of the question? I'm sorry, Russell.

問題的最後一點是什麼？對不起，拉塞爾。

Yes, apologies. Wondering whether there is upside risk to the 10% MA growth guidance if we see a recovery in corporate M&A activity next year -- or sorry, this year.

是的，抱歉。想知道如果明年我們看到企業併購活動復甦——或者抱歉，今年，10% 的 MA 增長指導是否存在上行風險。

To the MA guidance?

給馬指導？

Yes, 10% MA guidance.

是的，10% MA 指導。

Let me just start with the question about Decision Solutions and pricing. And with the biggest growth engine in Decision Solutions is our KYC business. And just to give you a sense, new sales almost doubled in 2022. And we had a greater than 50% increase in the number of new customers, and we had a meaningful increase in the average sale price. That's not just pricing.

讓我從有關決策解決方案和定價的問題開始。決策解決方案中最大的增長引擎是我們的 KYC 業務。只是為了給你一個感覺，2022 年新銷售額幾乎翻了一番。我們的新客戶數量增加了 50% 以上，平均銷售價格也有了有意義的增長。這不僅僅是定價。

What that really does is the bundling of products and capabilities, that's allowing us to have a larger ticket size. So I think what you're really seeing certainly in KYC is a lot of new customers coming into the market. We're obviously doing a very nice job of bringing those into the Moody's family when you look at our growth rates relative to the overall market, but also continuing to be able to provide additional capabilities to folks who are already then using the products and services.

真正做的是產品和功能的捆綁，這使我們能夠擁有更大的門票尺寸。所以我認為你在 KYC 中真正看到的是很多新客戶進入市場。當您查看我們相對於整個市場的增長率時，我們顯然在將這些納入穆迪家族方面做得非常好，但同時也繼續能夠為已經在使用產品和服務的人們提供額外的功能.

So I'd say that's actually probably a similar story to kind of a lesser extent for what we're doing around banking. We've just got a suite of cloud-based solutions that we continue to build out that allows us to bundle those solutions together and to increase the ticket sizes and the size of the relationship that we've got with our customers.

所以我想說，對於我們在銀行業所做的事情，這實際上可能是一個類似的故事，但程度較輕。我們剛剛獲得了一套基於雲的解決方案，我們將繼續構建這些解決方案，使我們能夠將這些解決方案捆綁在一起，並增加票證規模和我們與客戶的關係規模。

So it's not just about price increases there. Of course, there's an element of that as we continue to enhance the value proposition of all of our products. But I think it's really more around cross-sell, and in the case of KYC, especially just new customer acquisition.

所以這不僅僅是那裡的價格上漲。當然，隨著我們繼續提升我們所有產品的價值主張，其中有一個因素。但我認為這實際上更多地圍繞交叉銷售，在 KYC 的情況下，尤其是新客戶的獲取。

Okay. And then the second point, I'll rephrase it better in terms of the MA revenue growth guidance of 10%. Is there upside risk to that if we see a recovery in corporate M&A activity?

好的。然後是第二點，我將根據 10% 的 MA 收入增長指導更好地重新表述。如果我們看到企業併購活動復甦，這是否存在上行風險？

I don't really see those 2 things tied tightly together. There'll be upside to the MIS guidance, obviously, but I don't necessarily think so from an MA standpoint.

我真的沒有看到這兩件事緊緊地綁在一起。顯然，MIS 指導會有上行空間，但從 MA 的角度來看，我不一定這麼認為。

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Huber from Huber Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

I guess, Rob, you've talked about this -- let's go a little deeper here. Your medium-term outlook, you said that's 5 years here, you're talking about low to mid-single-digit MIS revenue growth long term, which is the same range you're giving for this year. We all know 2022 was obviously a very rough macro year M&A for the marketplace for most of the bloody year was quite low. Debt taken on for share buybacks was quite low last year. Refinancings last year seemed like that was low versus what it should be the next few years, that you agree on that and stuff.

我想，Rob，你已經談到了這個——讓我們在這裡更深入一點。你的中期展望，你說這裡是 5 年，你說的是長期的中低個位數 MIS 收入增長，這與你今年給出的範圍相同。我們都知道 2022 年顯然是一個非常艱難的宏觀年，在這一年的大部分時間裡，市場的併購都非常低。去年因股票回購而承擔的債務相當低。去年的再融資似乎低於未來幾年的水平，你同意這一點。

And when you think about pricing, historically, you've done 3% to 4% price, maybe it's a little bit higher than that, but if it was at least 3% to 4%. How do you square all that with only up 2% to, say, 5% on average for the next 5 years with the base year seemingly being so low? Is it just being overly conservative here? I'm just trying to get a better sense of this. I get a lot of questions on this.

當你考慮定價時，從歷史上看，你已經完成了 3% 到 4% 的價格，也許比這高一點，但如果它至少是 3% 到 4%。在基準年似乎如此之低的情況下，您如何將所有這些與未來 5 年的平均增長率僅上升 2% 至 5% 相加？只是在這裡過於保守了嗎？我只是想更好地理解這一點。我對此有很多疑問。

Yes. I understand that some will view us as conservative. And obviously, time will tell, and I hope that's correct, Craig. I guess it just comes back to kind of what I talked about earlier when we look at kind of a longer-term average in terms of overall issuance and where we ended up 2022 and what we see, at least in front for us for 2023, we think implies as we, I think, in line with our medium-term targets.

是的。我知道有些人會認為我們保守。顯然，時間會證明一切，我希望這是正確的，克雷格。我想這又回到了我之前談到的那種情況，當我們從整體發行量和我們在 2022 年結束的地方以及我們所看到的，至少在 2023 年的未來來看，是一種長期平均水平，我們認為這意味著我們，我認為，符合我們的中期目標。

So I think that's what it comes back to. But as I said, the one thing that maybe to think about in terms of are we being conservative, I touched on this a little bit earlier in the call is, while on one hand, we're at relatively similar levels of issuance from pre pandemic, I mean, a little bit lower but not significantly lower, the mix is different.

所以我認為這就是它回來的原因。但正如我所說，可能要考慮的一件事是我們是否保守，我在電話會議的早些時候談到了這一點，而一方面，我們的發行水平與之前的發行水平相對相似大流行病，我的意思是，略低但不會顯著降低，混合是不同的。

So last year, we had much more issuance coming from financial institutions as a percent of the total than corporates. And so as that -- if that mix shift changes back to what we've seen over the last, call it, 6, 7 years pre pandemic, then yes, I think in that case, we'd see faster corporate growth that might provide some upside to the way we think about the medium-term targets.

因此，去年，金融機構發行的債券佔總發行量的百分比遠高於企業。因此——如果這種混合轉變回到我們過去看到的情況，稱之為大流行前 6、7 年，那麼是的，我認為在那種情況下，我們會看到更快的企業增長，這可能為我們考慮中期目標的方式提供一些好處。

Then also just on the pricing, can you guys tell us what you're expecting pricing for MIS this year to be? A similar question for MA.

然後就定價而言，你們能告訴我們您對今年 MIS 的定價是多少嗎？ MA的類似問題。

Yes. So Craig, we always kind of target across the company kind of a 3% to 4% kind of annual price increase. And I think we talked about a little bit on the last call, but what we do in MIS, every year, we do a very detailed review of pricing across sectors and regions. And based on that, we come out with our list prices for the following year.

是的。所以克雷格，我們總是將整個公司的目標定為每年 3% 到 4% 的價格上漲。我想我們在上次電話會議上談了一點，但我們在 MIS 所做的，每年，我們都會對跨部門和地區的定價進行非常詳細的審查。在此基礎上，我們得出了下一年的標價。

And I think you can expect our list prices for 2023 are going to be a little bit higher than the rate of increase, a little bit higher than maybe it has been historically. But the realization of that will depend on mix, right, where the issuance actually comes from.

而且我認為您可以預期我們 2023 年的標價將略高於增長率，略高於歷史水平。但實現這一點將取決於組合，對，發行的實際來源。

And the MA side, what's the pricing there, you think, on average for this year?

而 MA 方面，你認為今年的平均定價是多少？

I'd say it's within that range.

我會說它在那個範圍內。

And we have a follow-up question from the line of Kevin McVeigh from Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh 提出了後續問題。

Rob, you've done a really nice job remixing the business and MA has kind of crossed the 50% threshold. If you look out 3 to 5 years, how should we think about what the business looks like? And I don't know if there's a way to maybe frame that organically versus inorganically? I mean it's hard to kind of parse deals and things, but maybe give us an organic view of kind of where the business sits 3 to 5 years from now.

Rob，你在重新混合業務方面做得非常好，MA 已經超過了 50% 的門檻。如果你展望未來 3 到 5 年，我們應該如何看待業務的面貌？而且我不知道是否有一種方法可以將有機與無機相結合？我的意思是很難分析交易和事情，但也許可以讓我們有機地了解 3 到 5 年後的業務狀況。

Yes. Kevin, that's an interesting question. And I guess I might start by saying when we think about integrated risk assessment, it's not just MA. It's all of Moody's. The rating agency is a really important contributor to, but also beneficiary of this integrated risk assessment strategy that we have.

是的。凱文，這是個有趣的問題。我想我可能首先要說的是，當我們考慮綜合風險評估時，它不僅僅是 MA。都是穆迪的。評級機構是我們擁有的這種綜合風險評估策略的真正重要貢獻者，也是受益者。

But maybe a few things, Kevin. First, I think you're seeing us develop scale in a few areas beyond our ratings business. And we obviously have a world-class fixed income research business in Digital Insights that serves investors. We've got, in Decision Solutions, I mean, you've heard me talk about a little bit, meaningful businesses that are supporting both banking and insurance across a set of different really critical risk workflows, origination, underwriting, portfolio and risk management and capital planning and reporting.

但也許有幾件事，凱文。首先，我認為你看到我們在評級業務之外的幾個領域發展規模。我們顯然在為投資者服務的 Digital Insights 中擁有世界一流的固定收益研究業務。在決策解決方案中，我的意思是，您已經聽到我談論了一些有意義的業務，這些業務在一組不同的真正關鍵的風險工作流程、發起、承保、投資組合和風險管理中支持銀行業和保險業資本規劃和報告。

And then, of course, we've got a rapidly growing KYC business that we think has some really industry-leading capabilities. We're really well positioned there. I think that's where you're going to see us continue to invest and really drive growth because those are very important delivery platforms for a range of content across all of Moody's. And you heard me talk about kind of what's driving ARR. And so all this fits together.

然後，當然，我們有一個快速增長的 KYC 業務，我們認為它具有一些真正行業領先的能力。我們在那裡的位置非常好。我認為這就是您將看到我們繼續投資並真正推動增長的地方，因為這些是穆迪所有內容的非常重要的交付平台。你聽我說是什麼推動了 ARR。所以所有這些都結合在一起。

When I think about that content, I mean, think about it, $70 trillion of debt rated by MIS. It's data ownership and credit scores from 425 million companies. It's massive economic data sets and ESG and physical risk scores on hundreds of millions of companies and locations. And we think of that as kind of our risk operating system, and we are increasingly threading that content through those scaled platforms.

當我想到這些內容時，我的意思是，想一想，MIS 評級的 70 萬億美元債務。它是來自 4.25 億家公司的數據所有權和信用評分。它是數億家公司和地點的海量經濟數據集以及 ESG 和物理風險評分。我們將其視為我們的風險操作系統，並且我們越來越多地通過這些擴展平台來處理這些內容。

And you've heard us talk about it but our commercial real estate lending module for banking. That takes a lot of that property and economic and climate content, and we've got KYC integrations that are on the way into our banking solutions. You've got ESG and climate integration into ratings, banking, insurance and research and so on.

你聽說過我們談論它，但我們的銀行商業房地產貸款模塊。這需要大量的財產、經濟和氣候內容，我們已經將 KYC 集成到我們的銀行解決方案中。你已經將 ESG 和氣候整合到評級、銀行、保險和研究等領域。

So I think ultimately, complementing our ratings business, we're going to have scaled platforms with a suite of cloud-based solutions that serve key customer sets. And they're differentiated by being able to draw on all this proprietary data and analytics that we've got, where and when customers need it so that they can better identify, measure and manage risk. That's where I think we're going to be 3 to 5 years from now.

因此，我認為最終，為了補充我們的評級業務，我們將擁有可擴展的平台，其中包含一套為關鍵客戶群提供服務的基於雲的解決方案。他們的與眾不同之處在於能夠在客戶需要的時間和地點利用我們擁有的所有這些專有數據和分析，以便他們能夠更好地識別、衡量和管理風險。這就是我認為我們將在 3 到 5 年後實現的目標。

And there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Rob Fauber, I'll turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。 Rob Fauber 先生，我會將電話轉回給您，請您作一些結束語。

Okay. Thanks, everybody, for joining. Appreciate the questions, and we look forward to speaking with you on the next call. Have a good day.

好的。謝謝大家的加入。感謝您提出問題，我們期待在下次通話中與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes Moody's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available immediately after the call on the Moody's IR website. Thank you.

穆迪第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議到此結束。提醒一下，在此次電話會議之後，公司將立即在穆迪 IR 主頁的“投資者資源”部分下發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，Moody's IR 網站將在電話會議結束後立即提供重播。謝謝你。