穆迪 (MCO) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。此時，我想通知您，本次會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝大家，大家下午好，感謝你們今天加入我們。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。

This morning -- this afternoon and this morning, Moody's released its results for the third quarter of 2022 as well as our revised outlook for full year 2022. The earnings press release and a presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

今天上午——今天下午和今天上午，穆迪發布了 2022 年第三季度的業績以及我們對 2022 年全年的修訂展望。本次電話會議的收益新聞稿和演示文稿均可在我們的網站 ir 上查閱.moodys.com。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for a reconciliation between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in U.S. GAAP.

在本次電話會議中，我們還將展示非公認會計原則或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天上午提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解在美國公認會計原則電話會議期間引用的所有調整後措施之間的對賬。

I call your attention to the safe harbor language which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, and in other SEC filings made by the company which are available on our website and on the SEC's website. These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

我提請您注意在我們的收益發布結束時可以找到的安全港語言。今天的評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論和分析部分以及我們在 Form 的年度報告中討論的風險因素截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K，以及該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，這些文件可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。這些與安全港聲明一起列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果大不相同的重要因素。

I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode.

我還想指出，媒體成員今天早上可能會以只聽模式接聽電話。

Rob Fauber, Moody's President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of our results and outlook. After which, he'll be joined by Mark Kaye, Moody's Chief Financial Officer, to answer your questions. I will now turn the call over to Rob Fauber.

穆迪總裁兼首席執行官 Rob Fauber 將概述我們的業績和展望。之後，穆迪首席財務官 Mark Kaye 將與他一起回答您的問題。我現在將把電話轉給 Rob Fauber。

Thanks, Shivani. Good afternoon, and thanks to everybody for joining today's call. Like I did last quarter, I'm going to start with a few takeaways.

謝謝，希瓦尼。下午好，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。就像我上個季度所做的那樣，我將從一些要點開始。

And as everybody is aware, during the third quarter, macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions continued to deteriorate, and that further suppressed the global debt issuance markets from the already subdued levels that we have seen in the first half of the year. At the same time, these conditions supported increasing customer demand for data and analytics to identify, measure and manage risk. And against this backdrop, our MA business continued to perform well, with strong revenue growth of 14%, while MIS revenue declined by 36%. Overall, Moody's generated $1.3 billion in revenue with an adjusted operating margin of 39%.

眾所周知，在第三季度，宏觀經濟和地緣政治狀況繼續惡化，這進一步打壓了全球債券發行市場，使其從我們在上半年看到的已經低迷的水平上走低。同時，這些條件支持客戶對數據和分析的需求不斷增加，以識別、衡量和管理風險。在此背景下，我們的 MA 業務繼續表現良好，收入強勁增長 14%，而 MIS 收入下降 36%。總體而言，穆迪創造了 13 億美元的收入，調整後的營業利潤率為 39%。

And we expect that low issuance volumes, particularly in the leveraged finance space, will persist through the remainder of the year. And as a result, we're revising several of our 2022 outlook metrics, including our guidance for total Moody's revenue, which is now expected to decline in the low double-digit range. And we're also updating our outlook for full year adjusted diluted EPS to now be between $8.20 and $8.50.

我們預計，低發行量，特別是在槓桿金融領域，將持續到今年剩餘時間。因此，我們正在修訂我們的一些 2022 年展望指標，包括我們對穆迪總收入的指導，目前預計該收入將在兩位數的低位範圍內下降。我們還將全年調整後攤薄每股收益的展望更新為 8.20 美元至 8.50 美元之間。

Now in response to the expectation for continued economic headwinds, we're also taking decisive steps to reduce our expense run rate by at least $200 million by year end. And the cost savings will be realized across the company and include a more than doubling in the size of our previously announced restructuring program as well as various additional cost efficiency initiatives. And collectively, these actions put us in a position of strength as we head into 2023, and I'll provide some additional details later in the call.

現在，為了應對經濟持續逆風的預期，我們還採取果斷措施，在年底前將我們的費用運行率至少降低 2 億美元。成本節約將在整個公司範圍內實現，包括將我們之前宣布的重組計劃的規模擴大一倍以上，以及各種額外的成本效率舉措。總的來說，這些行動使我們在進入 2023 年時處於優勢地位，我將在電話會議的稍後部分提供一些額外的細節。

Now for the third quarter, MA recorded both strong revenue growth of 14% and a 9% increase in annualized recurring revenue, or ARR. With over half of MA's business outside the U.S., foreign exchange rates had an outsized impact on MA's revenue growth, lowering it by 7 percentage points. And for MIS, the 36% decrease in revenue against the record prior year period was driven by a 41% reduction in issuance. And altogether, this resulted in a 16% decline in Moody's revenue. And the negative impact of foreign currency movements on total Moody's revenue was 4 percentage points.

現在到第三季度，MA 錄得 14% 的強勁收入增長和 9% 的年化經常性收入或 ARR 增長。由於 MA 超過一半的業務在美國以外，匯率對 MA 的收入增長產生了巨大影響，降低了 7 個百分點。對於 MIS 而言，收入較上年創紀錄的下降 36% 是由發行量減少 41% 推動的。總的來說，這導致穆迪的收入下降了 16%。外幣變動對穆迪總收入的負面影響為 4 個百分點。

And our expenses grew just 1% in the third quarter as we continue to execute efficiency initiatives and emphasize cost discipline. And the net impact of lower revenue and controlled expenses translated to adjusted operating income of $497 million for the quarter and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.85.

由於我們繼續執行效率計劃並強調成本紀律，我們的支出在第三季度僅增長了 1%。收入和控制費用下降的淨影響轉化為該季度調整後的營業收入為 4.97 億美元，調整後的攤薄後每股收益為 1.85 美元。

Now let me provide some additional context on the conditions impacting issuance levels and our revised full year outlook for MIS. And at the beginning of the year, like others in the market, we anticipated that elevated levels of inflation would be transitory and slowly abate over the course of 2022. And instead, the conflict in Ukraine further impacted market confidence and commodity price shocks pushed inflation higher.

現在讓我提供一些關於影響發行水平的條件和我們修訂後的 MIS 全年展望的更多背景信息。在今年年初，與市場上的其他人一樣，我們預計通脹水平升高將是暫時的，並在 2022 年期間緩慢減弱。相反，烏克蘭的衝突進一步影響了市場信心，大宗商品價格衝擊推高了通脹更高。

And these factors prompted central banks to raise interest rates further and faster than expected to levels we haven't seen for more than a decade, and resulting in ongoing uncertainty and volatility in the capital markets. In the meanwhile, corporate balance sheets remained robust, following a surge in opportunistic pandemic-era financing, allowing issuers to stay on the sidelines, given the market conditions.

這些因素促使央行以比預期更快的速度進一步提高利率，達到我們十多年來從未見過的水平，並導致資本市場持續存在不確定性和波動性。與此同時，在機會主義大流行時代融資激增之後，企業資產負債表保持穩健，允許發行人在市場條件下保持觀望。

We expect that these macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions will continue to mute issuance levels at least through year-end. And in light of this, we're updating our guidance for 2022 MIS-rated issuance to decline in the mid-30s percent range. Full year MIS revenue is now projected to decrease by approximately 30%. And while the outlook for next year will depend on the pace and scope of market stabilization and recovery, we're confident that conditions will improve over time and that the key growth drivers for issuance will resume.

我們預計，這些宏觀經濟和地緣政治條件將至少在年底前繼續抑制發行水平。鑑於此，我們正在更新我們對 2022 年 MIS 評級發行的指導，使其下降到 30% 左右的範圍內。現在預計全年 MIS 收入將減少約 30%。雖然明年的前景將取決於市場穩定和復甦的速度和範圍，但我們相信隨著時間的推移情況會有所改善，發行的主要增長動力將恢復。

This year, only a little more than 1/4 of the first-time mandates that we've signed have gone to market, meaning there's a backlog waiting to tap the markets. And to leverage those opportunities, our teams have been engaging extensively with investors and issuers, and we haven't been sitting still.

今年，我們簽署的首次授權中只有略多於 1/4 進入市場，這意味著有待開發的積壓訂單。為了利用這些機會，我們的團隊一直在與投資者和發行人進行廣泛接觸，我們並沒有坐以待斃。

We've been building our domestic rating franchises, including in Africa with the majority acquisition of GCR, and across Latin America through Moody's Local. And we've made significant progress in digitizing our content to both improve the customer experience but also to drive increased usage. As we look ahead, our pricing opportunity remains intact, and we know there are over $4 trillion in refunding needs that will likely be refinanced over the coming 4 years.

我們一直在建立我們的國內評級特許經營權，包括在非洲（主要收購 GCR），以及通過穆迪當地（Moody's Local）在整個拉丁美洲。我們在內容數字化方面取得了重大進展，既改善了客戶體驗，又推動了使用量的增加。展望未來，我們的定價機會保持不變，我們知道有超過 4 萬億美元的退款需求可能會在未來 4 年內再融資。

In short, we're continuing to deliver on our differentiated strategy to be the agency of choice for our customers. While current conditions for MIS are challenging, as those ease, issuance will accelerate and we will be well positioned to capture growth and operating leverage through our extensive market presence.

簡而言之，我們將繼續實施我們的差異化戰略，成為客戶的首選代理機構。儘管 MIS 的當前條件具有挑戰性，但隨著這些條件的緩解，發行將加速，我們將做好準備，通過我們廣泛的市場存在來捕捉增長和經營槓桿。

Now turning to MA, which despite the challenging market conditions, delivered another impressive quarter of revenue growth and margin expansion. 59 consecutive quarters of revenue growth, MA has proven to be acyclical, and the third quarter was no different. MA reported 14% revenue growth or 9% on an organic constant currency basis. And with best-in-class retention rates and growing customer demand, MA also achieved 9% ARR growth for the third quarter, and that's inclusive of RMS.

現在轉向 MA，儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，但該季度的收入增長和利潤增長又令人印象深刻。連續 59 個季度的收入增長，證明 MA 是非週期性的，第三季度也不例外。 MA 報告收入增長 14%，或按有機固定貨幣計算增長 9%。憑藉一流的保留率和不斷增長的客戶需求，MA 在第三季度也實現了 9% 的 ARR 增長，這包括 RMS。

And we're confirming our top line revenue guidance for 2022. MA full year revenue is expected to increase in the mid-teens percent range, and that's despite a 5 percentage point headwind from foreign exchange rates. We expect ARR to accelerate to low double-digit percent growth by year-end. We're also raising the MA adjusted margin guidance to approximately 30%, and that's a 100 basis point increase over our prior guidance, reflecting ongoing expense efficiency.

而且我們正在確認我們對 2022 年的最高收入指導。MA 全年收入預計將在 10% 左右增長，儘管外匯匯率帶來了 5 個百分點的逆風。我們預計 ARR 將在年底前加速至兩位數的低增長。我們還將 MA 調整後的利潤率指導提高到約 30%，這比我們之前的指導提高了 100 個基點，反映了持續的費用效率。

So let me take a moment just to highlight our fastest-growing business, and that's KYC and compliance solutions. And in recent years, we've invested, and that's been both organically and inorganically, in acquiring, developing and integrating data analytics and technology to create a world-class set of solutions. And this combination supports new use cases around counterparty verification. That's enabling us to grow with existing customers and add new customers in areas like the fintech, corporate and government sectors.

因此，讓我花一點時間來強調一下我們增長最快的業務，那就是 KYC 和合規解決方案。近年來，我們在獲取、開發和整合數據分析和技術方面進行了有機和無機方面的投資，以創建一套世界級的解決方案。這種組合支持圍繞交易對手驗證的新用例。這使我們能夠與現有客戶一起成長，並在金融科技、企業和政府部門等領域增加新客戶。

We continue to receive industry awards and recognition, including most recently, a top-right quadrant positioning from Chartis. We also won the AI Breakthrough Award for our innovative solution for fraud prevention. And that's one of an increasing number of places where we're being recognized for the integration of artificial intelligence into our solutions.

我們繼續獲得行業獎項和認可，包括最近來自 Chartis 的右上角象限定位。我們還憑藉創新的欺詐預防解決方案獲得了 AI 突破獎。這是我們因將人工智能集成到我們的解決方案中而獲得認可的越來越多的地方之一。

Also, as we pass on the 1-year anniversary of the RMS acquisition, let me give a quick update on that. We're on track to achieve the financial targets announced last August, and I'm excited about the opportunities that are in front of us. We are laser-focused on maximizing our synergy opportunities by launching new products and pursuing markets that leverage our combined capabilities and strengths.

此外，在我們過去 RMS 收購一周年之際，讓我快速更新一下。我們有望實現去年 8 月宣布的財務目標，我對擺在我們面前的機會感到興奮。我們專注於通過推出新產品和開拓利用我們綜合能力和優勢的市場來最大化我們的協同機會。

So for example, this past quarter, we launched our ESG underwriting solution for property and casualty insurers, which integrates Moody's extensive data to help them operationalize ESG risk assessment into their insurance underwriting workflows.

例如，在上個季度，我們為財產保險公司推出了 ESG 承保解決方案，該解決方案整合了穆迪的大量數據，幫助他們將 ESG 風險評估實施到保險承保工作流程中。

And I also want to recognize the great work being done by our colleagues at RMS. And in my meetings with customers over the last few months, I've heard firsthand about how important our solutions are in helping the industry address an increasing array of risks, including recently, as we assisted our customers in rapidly quantifying the financial impact of Hurricanes Fiona and Ian.

我還想表彰我們在 RMS 的同事所做的出色工作。在過去幾個月與客戶的會面中，我親身了解了我們的解決方案在幫助行業應對越來越多的風險方面的重要性，包括最近，因為我們幫助客戶快速量化颶風的財務影響菲奧娜和伊恩。

Now moving to the restructuring plan that I mentioned earlier. On our last earnings call, we said that we would take additional actions to manage expenses and improve operating leverage if we observed further deterioration in the external environment. And given our view that the weakness in the issuance market will likely persist through at least the fourth quarter of 2022, our teams have undertaken a careful review of prioritization of ongoing initiatives, and we've identified several avenues for meaningful savings.

現在轉到我之前提到的重組計劃。在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們表示如果我們觀察到外部環境進一步惡化，我們將採取額外措施來管理費用並提高運營槓桿。鑑於我們認為發行市場的疲軟可能至少會持續到 2022 年第四季度，我們的團隊已經對正在進行的舉措的優先順序進行了仔細審查，並且我們已經確定了幾種有意義的儲蓄途徑。

We are expanding our restructuring program to more than double, providing up to $135 million in savings in 2023 from a combination of rationalizing our real estate footprint and reducing our global workforce to reflect the reality of the current market environment. We have also undertaken a careful prioritization of ongoing initiatives in light of our current business priorities. And that has identified up to $100 million in additional savings.

我們正在將重組計劃擴大一倍以上，通過合理化我們的房地產足跡和減少我們的全球勞動力以反映當前市場環境的現實，到 2023 年節省高達 1.35 億美元。我們還根據我們當前的業務重點對正在進行的計劃進行了仔細的優先排序。這已經確定了高達 1 億美元的額外節省。

So collectively, these are projected to lower our 2023 expense run rate by at least $200 million. And as we take these decisive actions, we will be mindful to invest and allocate resources to maintain the rigor and quality of our ratings and processes.

因此，總的來說，這些預計將使我們 2023 年的費用運行率至少降低 2 億美元。在我們採取這些果斷行動時，我們將注意投資和分配資源，以保持我們評級和流程的嚴謹性和質量。

Look, these are challenging and uncertain times, and we are prioritizing financial discipline today and making sure that we're well positioned to capture growth opportunities tomorrow.

看，這是充滿挑戰和不確定性的時代，我們今天優先考慮財務紀律，並確保我們做好準備，抓住明天的增長機會。

So that includes -- that concludes my prepared remarks, and Mark and I would be pleased to take your questions. Operator.

這包括——我準備好的發言到此結束，馬克和我很樂意回答你的問題。操作員。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question is from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ashish Sabadra。

I was just wondering if you -- as we think into 2023, if you could provide any initial color on how we should think about issuance. There was obviously an expectation that we may see a big bounce-back in issuance. Is that still an expectation as we get into 2023? Or just given the higher interest rate, is it more reasonable to think about a gradual recovery? I was just wondering if you could share some initial thoughts.

我只是想知道您是否 - 正如我們對 2023 年的看法一樣，您能否提供任何關於我們應該如何考慮發行的初步看法。顯然，人們預計我們可能會看到發行量大幅反彈。當我們進入 2023 年時，這仍然是一種期望嗎？或者只是考慮到更高的利率，考慮逐步復甦是否更合理？我只是想知道你是否可以分享一些初步的想法。

Ashish, it's Rob. And I'm pretty sure we're going to get multiple questions around issuance environment and issuance outlook. So maybe let me start with kind of a big picture view. And then as the call progresses, we'll continue to kind of drill down, and I know we'll talk about 2023.

阿希什，是羅布。而且我很確定我們將收到有關發行環境和發行前景的多個問題。所以也許讓我從一個大的圖景開始。然後隨著電話會議的進行，我們將繼續深入研究，我知道我們將討論 2023 年。

But you've heard me oftentimes on these earnings calls. When I said that I thought that the market could absorb rate increases as long as they were well anticipated by the market and they were accompanied by economic growth. And that is not what we have had this year. So the tightening cycle is really the steepest of the past 2 decades. I think that initially surprised the market, and it has been accompanied by decelerating economic growth.

但是你經常在這些收益電話會議上聽到我的聲音。當我說的時候，我認為只要市場能夠很好地預期加息並且伴隨著經濟增長，市場就可以吸收加息。這不是我們今年所擁有的。因此，緊縮週期確實是過去 2 年中最陡峭的。我認為這最初令市場感到驚訝，並伴隨著經濟增長放緩。

So back on the last call, I talked about the factors that were causing the disruptions to the market at the time. And I noted that, despite those factors, we expected that at the time, 2022 issuance was going to come in roughly in line with the average of issuance from that 2012 to '19 period that excludes those pandemic years of 2020 and '21.

因此，在上次電話會議上，我談到了當時造成市場混亂的因素。我注意到，儘管有這些因素，我們當時預計 2022 年的發行量將與 2012 年至 19 年期間的平均發行量大致持平，其中不包括 2020 年和 21 年的大流行年份。

But given the weakness in the third quarter that, as you heard me say, we expect to continue into the fourth quarter, we now think that the overall global issuance is going to be down something like close to 10% from that historical average. But what has really changed is that we now expect corporate issuance, and I'm including investment-grade and leveraged finance, to be down almost 30% from that historical average, ex pandemic. So this is no longer kind of just down off of 2 unusual and record years for issuance, but now we see corporate issuance down meaningfully from its ex pandemic average going back to 2012.

但鑑於第三季度的疲軟，正如你聽到我所說，我們預計將持續到第四季度，我們現在認為全球整體發行量將比歷史平均水平下降近 10%。但真正發生變化的是，我們現在預計企業發行（包括投資級和槓桿融資）將比大流行前的歷史平均水平下降近 30%。因此，這不再只是在 2 個不尋常且創紀錄的發行年份之後出現的下降，而是現在我們看到企業發行量從 2012 年的前大流行平均水平顯著下降。

And I think that kind of illustrates the depth of the cyclical contraction that we're dealing with at the moment. And as I think about for the remainder of the year, I think the key is for the market to be able to get some certainty before it starts to get volatility. I think that's going to be the key.

我認為這說明了我們目前正在處理的周期性收縮的深度。正如我對今年剩餘時間的考慮，我認為關鍵是市場能夠在開始波動之前獲得一些確定性。我認為這將是關鍵。

So let me pause there, and I'm sure we're going to have some other issuance questions as we go forward.

所以讓我停在那裡，我相信在我們前進的過程中我們還會遇到一些其他的問題。

Your next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

Yes. Maybe I'll start with [maturity and state of the wall]. You talked about $4 trillion of refi needs over 4 years. I was hoping if you could just help us how that breaks out. It looks like more of it might be in '24, but just curious on your numbers.

是的。也許我會從[牆的成熟度和狀態]開始。您談到了 4 年內 4 萬億美元的再融資需求。我希望你能幫助我們如何爆發。看起來更多的可能是在 24 年，但只是對你的數字感到好奇。

And then in a typical year, how much is refi as part of the given issuance compared to, I guess, the rest of the categories, which might just be more on capital allocation as a group, if that's correct?

然後在典型的一年中，與我猜想其他類別相比，作為給定發行的一部分的 refi 有多少，如果這是正確的話，這可能更多地是作為一個群體的資本配置？

Yes, Manav. So we included, I think, a slide in the supplemental materials around the maturity walls. And as you said, it's $4 trillion, $4 trillion to $4.1 trillion. Very significant amount of debt that's got to get refinanced over the coming 4 years across the United States and EMEA.

是的，馬納夫。因此，我認為，我們在成熟牆周圍的補充材料中加入了幻燈片。正如你所說，它是 4 萬億美元、4 萬億美元到 4.1 萬億美元。未來 4 年，美國和歐洲、中東和非洲的大量債務需要再融資。

And it's interesting. We actually -- as we kind of normalized, you had about $200 billion of debt that fell out of the study due to withdrawn ratings in Russia. So the refi walls actually did actually grow this past year. It grew something like 4% on a like-for-like basis. But I think what's really interesting, Manav, if you go back, just look at the slides back to 2019, as those maturity walls have grown 28% from 2019. But when you actually go back another year, 2018, they're up 54%.

這很有趣。實際上，我們已經正常化了，由於俄羅斯的評級被撤銷，您有大約 2000 億美元的債務被排除在研究之外。所以在過去的一年裡，refi 牆實際上確實增長了。它在類似的基礎上增長了大約 4%。但我認為真正有趣的是，Manav，如果你回到 2019 年，只需看看幻燈片，因為這些成熟度牆比 2019 年增長了 28%。但是當你真正回到另一年，即 2018 年時，它們上升了 54 %。

And we're looking at a few things. So one, just the absolute maturity walls are significant, and they've continued to grow despite the fact there was obviously some refinancing activity that was going on when rates were ultra low. If you look at U.S. spec-grade for a moment, so if you look at the first 2 years in our refunding studies, they're about 18% of the 5-year total. That's the highest percentage since we started tracking it in 2010.

我們正在研究一些事情。因此，只有絕對期限牆很重要，儘管在利率超低時顯然存在一些再融資活動，但它們仍在繼續增長。如果您看一下美國規格等級，那麼如果您看一下我們退款研究的前 2 年，它們大約佔 5 年總數的 18%。這是自 2010 年我們開始跟踪它以來的最高百分比。

And the other thing I would say, Manav, just to also try to triangulate to your question, if you look at the maturity walls for 2023 and you look at what our expectation is for corporate issuance for 2022, and I understand that's a little apples-to-oranges, but it represents about 50% of what we expect to be the global corporate financing activity in 2022. That's a pretty big number. And remember, 40% of the MIS business, or thereabouts, is recurring revenue. So now we're talking about the support for that other 60%.

我要說的另一件事，Manav，只是為了嘗試對你的問題進行三角測量，如果你看看 2023 年的成熟度牆，看看我們對 2022 年公司發行的期望，我知道那是一個小蘋果-tooranges，但它代表了我們預計 2022 年全球企業融資活動的約 50%。這是一個相當大的數字。請記住，40% 左右的 MIS 業務是經常性收入。所以現在我們談論的是對另外 60% 的支持。

Our next question is from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Alex Kramm。

Wanted to shift gears to the cost base. I understand the restructuring program, but it would be helpful if you, I guess Mark, flesh this out a little bit more.

想要轉向成本基礎。我了解重組計劃，但如果你，我猜馬克，再充實一點，會很有幫助。

So the $200 million achieved by the end of the year, how much of that is going to be actually impacting this year's full year cost base? And then I guess into 2023, how much on a net basis will be incremental as we think about the outlook there?

那麼到今年年底實現的 2 億美元，其中有多少會真正影響到今年的全年成本基礎？然後我猜到 2023 年，當我們考慮那裡的前景時，淨增加多少？

And then more importantly, I guess, if we expect growth to accelerate next year, hopefully, how should we be thinking about incremental margins on the ratings business? And are the low 60s targets, medium term, still intact? So I know that's a 3-part question, but I think it's all important.

然後更重要的是，我想，如果我們預計明年增長會加速，那麼我們應該如何考慮評級業務的增量利潤率？ 60 年代的中期目標是否仍然完好無損？所以我知道這是一個由三部分組成的問題，但我認為這都很重要。

Alex, I anticipate we may get a couple of questions on expenses during our Q&A session today. And so I'll start off maybe by talking broadly about the restructuring program in addressing some of your margin-specific questions now. And certainly, we can take further ones later on.

亞歷克斯，我預計在今天的問答環節中，我們可能會收到一些關於費用的問題。因此，我可能會首先廣泛討論重組計劃，以解決您現在解決的一些特定於利潤的問題。當然，我們以後可以採取更多的措施。

So the market disruption and downturn, as you heard from Rob, has extended for longer and has been more severe than what we anticipated early in the year. And because we're primarily thinking that this will extend at least through the fourth quarter, we're taking actions consistent with our prior comments around being financially prudent and expense-decisive. And that really means expanding the 2022, 2023 geolocation restructuring program that we established last quarter.

因此，正如您從 Rob 那裡聽到的那樣，市場動盪和低迷已經持續了更長的時間，而且比我們年初預期的更為嚴重。而且因為我們主要認為這將至少延續到第四季度，我們正在採取與我們之前關於財務審慎和費用決定性的評論一致的行動。這實際上意味著擴大我們上個季度製定的 2022 年、2023 年地理定位重組計劃。

So specifically, through year-end 2023, we now expect up to $170 million or an approximate $95 million increase in aggregate charges related to additional real estate rationalization as well as reduction of staff. And that's going to include further utilization of alternative lower-cost locations where the requisite skills and talents exist. And that's all while ensuring that our focus and resources remain firmly allocated to protecting the high quality of our core ratings business and continuing to strategically invest in growth areas within both MIS and MA.

因此，具體而言，到 2023 年底，我們現在預計與額外的房地產合理化和裁員相關的總費用將增加 1.7 億美元或約 9500 萬美元。這將包括進一步利用存在必要技能和人才的替代低成本地點。同時確保我們的重點和資源仍然堅定地用於保護我們核心評級業務的高質量，並繼續戰略性地投資於 MIS 和 MA 的增長領域。

For the full year 2022, as we take these additional personnel-related actions, as well as exit from these certain leased office space, we plan to record up to approximately $85 million in estimated pretax restructuring charges, and that's going to be inclusive of the $33 million pretax restructuring charge that we've recorded year-to-date. And that means the remaining portion of the up to $170 million of restructuring charges will be recorded then in 2023.

在 2022 年全年，隨著我們採取這些與人事相關的額外行動，以及退出這些特定的租賃辦公空間，我們計劃記錄高達約 8500 萬美元的估計稅前重組費用，這將包括年初至今，我們記錄了 3300 萬美元的稅前重組費用。這意味著高達 1.7 億美元的重組費用的剩餘部分將在 2023 年入賬。

And these actions are now projected to result in an annualized savings in a range of $100 million to $135 million, and that's more than double the $40 million to $60 million in annualized savings that we forecast under the restructuring program that we established last quarter.

現在預計這些行動將導致每年節省 1 億至 1.35 億美元，這是我們根據上季度製定的重組計劃預測的 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的年化節省的兩倍多。

Furthermore, as you heard Rob mentioned just a minute ago, we have evaluated other opportunities for cost reduction, and that includes adjusting compensation policies, certain salary bands, reducing select non-compensation expenses, as well as reassessing some of our business strategies. And those additional cost reductions, along with this $100 million to $135 million of savings from the upsized restructuring program, that will generate at least that $200 million run rate of savings as we enter into 2023.

此外，正如您剛才聽到 Rob 提到的，我們評估了其他降低成本的機會，包括調整薪酬政策、某些工資範圍、減少選擇的非薪酬費用，以及重新評估我們的一些業務戰略。這些額外的成本削減，加上規模擴大的重組計劃節省的 1 億至 1.35 億美元，將在我們進入 2023 年時產生至少 2 億美元的運行率。

And we plan to use these savings, to your second part of your question, to really support profitability and business margin as we take action towards achieving our medium-term financial targets and, to a lesser extent, plan to redeploy towards strategic investments, including workplace enhancements.

對於您問題的第二部分，我們計劃使用這些節省來真正支持盈利能力和業務利潤率，因為我們採取行動實現我們的中期財務目標，並在較小程度上計劃重新部署到戰略投資，包括工作場所的改進。

And while we'll provide official guidance for the full year 2023 in February, these expense actions are anticipated to increase and stabilize MIS's 2023 adjusted operating margin in at least the mid-50s percentage range, and they'll continue to expand MA's adjusted operating margin as well.

雖然我們將在 2 月提供 2023 年全年的官方指導，但這些費用行動預計將增加 MIS 的 2023 年調整後營業利潤率並將其穩定在至少 50 年代中期的百分比範圍內，並且他們將繼續擴大 MA 的調整後營業利潤率保證金也是如此。

Your next question is from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

And congratulations on the proactive expense management. I don't know who this would be for, but any -- can you give us a sense of what level of conservatism you have in the 2022 guidance based on the adjustments you've made kind of year-to-date?

並祝賀積極的費用管理。我不知道這會是給誰的，但任何人——你能告訴我們你在 2022 年指導方針中的保守主義程度嗎？根據你今年迄今為止所做的調整？

Yes. Kevin, thanks for joining us today. So the way we kind of put together the -- some of the remainder of -- the guidance for the remainder of the year, we've essentially assumed a continuation of what we're seeing right now into and throughout the fourth quarter.

是的。凱文，感謝您今天加入我們。因此，我們將今年剩餘時間的一些剩餘部分組合在一起的方式，我們基本上假設我們現在看到的情況會延續到第四季度和整個第四季度。

And just to give you a sense, our revised guidance for issuance implies that fourth quarter rated issuances will be down in, call it, kind of the low 40s percent range. And if we have another quarter of assumed unfavorable mix because of the softness in the leveraged finance markets, that would mean MIS transaction revenues would be down greater than that, right? So they'd be down in the kind of low 50s percent range. And then when you triangulate that back to revenue, implies that fourth quarter MIS revenue will be down in the mid-30s percent range.

只是為了給你一個感覺，我們修訂後的發行指南意味著第四季度的評級發行量將下降，稱之為低 40% 的範圍。而且，如果由於槓桿金融市場疲軟，我們還有另外四分之一的假設不利組合，那將意味著 MIS 交易收入下降幅度更大，對吧？因此，它們會下降到 50% 的範圍內。然後，當您對收入進行三角測量時，這意味著第四季度 MIS 收入將下降到 30% 左右。

And so that feels about right to us, that we're going to continue with this environment. We've got a pretty muted environment at the moment. And I think the rest of the year, in a way, because we're assuming that this continues, you'd kind of thinking of it as a bit of a wash because I think we're going to be in a holding pattern until the market can get some more confidence about inflation peaking, and in turn, some certainty around the pace and trajectory of Fed rate increases.

所以這對我們來說是正確的，我們將繼續這種環境。目前我們的環境非常安靜。我認為今年剩下的時間，在某種程度上，因為我們假設這種情況會繼續下去，你會認為它有點洗牌，因為我認為我們將處於等待狀態，直到市場可以對通脹見頂有更多信心，進而對美聯儲加息的步伐和軌蹟有一定的確定性。

Yes. Maybe I'd just briefly add 2 quick points. It's worth highlighting that the confidence intervals around our modeled outlook are wider relative to what we've seen in prior periods, and that's simply reflecting the heightened market uncertainty and volatility that we're currently experiencing.

是的。也許我只是簡單地添加 2 個快速點。值得強調的是，我們模擬前景的置信區間比我們在前期看到的要寬，這只是反映了我們目前正在經歷的市場不確定性和波動性加劇。

And then in contrast, MA has shown significant resilience to the current market disruption, really as our customers continued to elevate and improve their level of risk resiliency, which underscores the mission-critical nature of our products.

相比之下，MA 對當前的市場動盪表現出顯著的彈性，因為我們的客戶繼續提升和提高他們的風險彈性水平，這突顯了我們產品的關鍵任務性質。

Your next question is from the line of Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的托尼卡普蘭。

Wanted to ask again on the sort of outlook on issuance long term. You highlighted the refunding needs that's supportive. And just wanted to understand if there's anything that you've seen so far that would lead you to think that companies will try to delever in the coming years, or anything that would sort of change the structural versus cyclical debate. And I know, Rob, you already said that you still think it's cyclical. But just any data points that you're looking at that would maybe influence that decision or debate.

想再問一下長期發行的那種前景。您強調了支持的退款需求。並且只是想了解到目前為止您所看到的是否有任何事情會導致您認為公司將在未來幾年嘗試去槓桿化，或者任何會改變結構與週期性辯論的事情。我知道，Rob，你已經說過你仍然認為它是周期性的。但是，您正在查看的任何數據點都可能會影響該決定或辯論。

Yes, Toni, sure. So we'll kind of zoom out here. And if we need to kind of zoom back into 2023, I'm sure we'll do that.

是的，托尼，當然。所以我們會在這裡縮小一點。如果我們需要回到 2023 年，我相信我們會這樣做。

But as you said, Toni, there's some pretty deep cyclical issues at the moment. We've talked about all the macro uncertainty. You've obviously got the market working off some of the excess supply of issuance over the 2 pandemic years.

但正如你所說，托尼，目前存在一些非常深刻的周期性問題。我們已經討論了所有宏觀不確定性。很明顯，你已經讓市場在 2 年大流行期間解決了部分過剩的發行供應。

But there are a few things, I think, that we're looking at that we feel are providing some, I would say, structural support for recovery in issuance markets. I talked about the refinancing walls, and those are very significant. There's some concern during the pandemic with ultra-low interest rates that we were eating into those maturity walls. It turns out they're intact and in fact continuing to grow and will provide support for transactional revenue.

但我認為，我們正在考慮一些事情，我們認為這些事情正在為發行市場的複蘇提供一些結構性支持。我談到了再融資牆，這些非常重要。在大流行期間，我們對那些到期日的超低利率感到擔憂。事實證明，它們完好無損，實際上還在繼續增長，並將為交易收入提供支持。

But I also say, this is -- there's been no change to the relative attractiveness of debt financing. And you remember, on various calls over the past, we've been talking about potential changes to tax codes and other things. None of that is out there.

但我還要說，這是 - 債務融資的相對吸引力沒有變化。你還記得，在過去的各種電話中，我們一直在談論稅法和其他事情的潛在變化。這些都不存在。

We've also seen -- there's been a lot of focus on cash balances. And certainly, U.S. corporates were building cash during the pandemic years. We started to see that come down. So our cash pile report shows about a 7% decrease over the last year. Cash levels are similar to where they were in 2018.

我們還看到——人們非常關注現金餘額。當然，美國企業在大流行期間正在積累現金。我們開始看到這種情況下降。因此，我們的現金儲備報告顯示，比去年減少了約 7%。現金水平與 2018 年相似。

And I would also say, Toni, that I'm going to zoom in on the U.S. for a moment, but U.S. corporates are in pretty good shape from a leverage standpoint. When we look at free cash flow to debt, that's one way to look at it across our rated U.S. corporates. It's at about 11%. That's the best that it's been since 2011. So that, to me, means that corporates still have some room to take on some additional leverage.

我還要說，托尼，我將暫時關注美國，但從槓桿的角度來看，美國公司的狀況非常好。當我們查看債務的自由現金流時，這是在我們評級的美國公司中查看它的一種方式。大約是 11%。這是自 2011 年以來最好的一次。因此，對我來說，這意味著企業仍有一定的空間來承擔一些額外的槓桿作用。

And then the last thing maybe I would say is, at the moment, we're continuing to see some stability of spreads kind of remaining around historical averages. You heard me talk about a backlog of FTM. So despite all of this -- and maybe that's not a long term, maybe that's a shorter term. But we do have -- we are seeing a lot of interest from issuers who want to tap the markets.

然後我可能要說的最後一件事是，目前，我們繼續看到點差保持在歷史平均水平附近的一些穩定性。你聽到我談論 FTM 的積壓。所以儘管有這一切——也許這不是一個長期的，也許這是一個短期的。但我們確實有——我們看到想要開拓市場的發行人有很大的興趣。

So as economic growth picks up, we expect all of that to be positive for issuance. I do think this is, as I said, is mostly cyclical. Cycles come and go. But we feel good about our leverage to a recovery in the markets.

因此，隨著經濟增長加快，我們預計所有這些都將對發行產生積極影響。正如我所說，我確實認為這主要是周期性的。週期來來去去。但我們對我們對市場復甦的影響感到滿意。

Your next question is from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

您的下一個問題來自 Andrew Nicholas 和 William Blair。

Just wanted to clarify a few things on the restructuring program. First, I want to make sure. I'm looking at the Slide 10. I want to make sure that, that incremental savings of up to $100 million on the non-restructuring-related expense actions, I want to make sure that, that's something that's baked in as opposed to a contingency plan.

只是想澄清一些關於重組計劃的事情。首先，我想確定。我正在查看幻燈片 10。我想確保在非重組相關的費用行動上節省高達 1 億美元的增量，我想確保這是一項已被納入的內容，而不是應急計劃。

And then also, if you could give any color, and I apologize if I missed it, in terms of the split of those cost savings between corporate expenses versus MIS versus MA. I think it would be helpful to understand that mid-50s MIS range that you alluded to, Mark, how much of that is a consequence of cost savings versus -- or cost actions versus maybe some baked-in growth next year.

然後，如果您能給出任何顏色，如果我錯過了，我深表歉意，就企業費用與 MIS 與 MA 之間的成本節省分配而言。我認為了解你提到的 50 年代中期 MIS 範圍會很有幫助，馬克，其中有多少是成本節約與 - 或成本行動與明年可能出現的一些增長的結果。

In terms of the incremental savings of up to $100 million that we list on the Page 10 of the supplemental slide set, those are not contingency-based savings. Those are certainly actions that we will anticipate taking.

就我們在補充幻燈片第 10 頁上列出的高達 1 億美元的增量節省而言，這些不是基於應急的節省。這些肯定是我們預計會採取的行動。

Maybe Andrew, let me take your question from a perspective of the expense levers that we have in the business. And I'll try to group it in really 4 primary buckets, and that will give you a feel for how ultimately those savings are going to translate through to the 2 different segments.

也許安德魯，讓我從我們在業務中的費用槓桿的角度來回答你的問題。我將嘗試將其分為真正的 4 個主要類別，這將使您了解這些節省最終將如何轉化為 2 個不同的部分。

The first lever is very much related to our hybrid and purpose-driven work environment. And this environment really enables us to be equally effective and productive as we were pre-pandemic with a much smaller physical office footprint. So last quarter, we announced plans to exit certain office space.

第一個槓桿與我們的混合和目標驅動的工作環境密切相關。這種環境確實使我們能夠像大流行前一樣高效和高效，而實體辦公室的佔地面積要小得多。所以上個季度，我們宣布了退出某些辦公空間的計劃。

And after further assessing the best use of our real estate footprint, as well as gathering feedback from our global employees on their workplace preferences, we have identified additional opportunities for real estate rationalization as part of that expanded global restructuring program. And that real estate rationalization range that we're looking at is between that $50 million to $70 million in total.

在進一步評估了我們的房地產足蹟的最佳利用方式，以及收集了我們全球員工對其工作場所偏好的反饋之後，我們確定了房地產合理化的其他機會，作為擴大的全球重組計劃的一部分。我們正在研究的房地產合理化範圍總計在 5000 萬美元到 7000 萬美元之間。

The second category I'd point you to is certain non-compensation costs, like T&E, that are primarily business-facing. And those have increased compared to the prior 2 years. Now although we anticipated these expenses to rise, there are others that we are prioritizing on reducing through supplier cost avoidances, rebates and volume discounts, as well as negotiating for comparable levels of service with more favorable terms. And that's going to include assessing whether any existing external services can be absorbed into our employee day-to-day responsibilities.

我要指出的第二類是某些非補償成本，例如 T&E，主要是面向業務的。與前兩年相比，這些數字有所增加。現在，雖然我們預計這些費用會增加，但我們正在優先考慮通過避免供應商成本、回扣和批量折扣來減少其他費用，以及以更優惠的條款就可比較的服務水平進行談判。這將包括評估是否可以將任何現有的外部服務納入我們員工的日常職責。

Now the third category is really the largest, and that's our largest expense, and that's people. And approximately 60% of our expense base is compensation and benefits. And we've already taken aggressive actions to prioritize hiring and open positions in key areas. And really, as part of our expanded restructuring program, we plan to increase our utilization of some of the alternative lower-cost locations, again, where those requisite skills and talent exist, but protecting ultimately the high quality of the ratings and continuing to invest. And those actions themselves is really what's going to lead to a higher MIS adjusted operating margin, at least in that mid-50s range that I mentioned earlier.

現在第三類確實是最大的，這是我們最大的支出，那就是人。我們大約 60% 的支出基礎是薪酬和福利。我們已經採取了積極行動，優先考慮關鍵領域的招聘和空缺職位。事實上，作為我們擴大重組計劃的一部分，我們計劃再次增加對一些成本較低的替代地點的利用，這些地點存在那些必要的技能和人才，但最終會保護評級的高質量並繼續投資.這些行動本身確實會導致 MIS 調整後的營業利潤率更高，至少在我之前提到的 50 年代中期。

And then fourth and finally, we also have naturally occurring expense levers in the business, for example, through our incentive compensation accruals. And those are going to flex based on the actual performance as compared to the financial targets that we set at the start of next year.

然後第四也是最後一點，我們在業務中也有自然發生的費用槓桿，例如，通過我們的激勵薪酬應計。與我們在明年年初設定的財務目標相比，這些將根據實際表現進行調整。

Yes. And just to reinforce, not contingent. Those are actions that we're taking now to make sure that we can realize those savings for full year 2023.

是的。只是為了加強，而不是偶然的。這些是我們現在正在採取的行動，以確保我們能夠在 2023 年全年實現這些節省。

Your next question is from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Jeff Silber。

I want to get back to the issuance environment. I'm just curious what you think will be the first sign that issuers are looking for to come back into the market. And where in terms of which verticals we might see those green shoots.

我想回到發行環境。我只是好奇你認為發行人正在尋找重返市場的第一個跡像是什麼。以及在哪些垂直領域我們可能會看到那些綠芽。

Yes. So maybe this is a good time to kind of talk about 2023 and how we see issuance starting to evolve over the coming quarters. And I'll touch on what those triggers are as I talk about that.

是的。因此，也許現在是談論 2023 年以及我們如何看待未來幾個季度的發行開始發展的好時機。當我談到這個時，我會談到這些觸發器是什麼。

So as we always do, we're going to provide our official forecast and guidance on our fourth quarter earnings call in February. It's just too early. I'm sure, as you can appreciate, given all of the uncertainty.

因此，我們將一如既往地在 2 月份的第四季度財報電話會議上提供官方預測和指導。只是太早了。考慮到所有的不確定性，我敢肯定，正如你所理解的那樣。

But the first thing. So the first trigger is, I think we've got to get some certainty into the market. And I mentioned earlier, that means that the market has got to get confidence that inflation is peaking so that the market can then get comfort with the pace and trajectory of Fed rate increases. And that is really, really important. And I don't think we've seen that yet.

但第一件事。所以第一個觸發因素是，我認為我們必須確定市場。我之前提到過，這意味著市場必須對通脹見頂有信心，這樣市場才能對美聯儲加息的步伐和軌跡感到滿意。這真的非常重要。我認為我們還沒有看到這一點。

And so our view is that Fed funds is going to peak some time in the first quarter of 2023. But the headwinds that we've got now are not just going to disappear overnight. We think that it's going to take into early 2023 to resolve some of that, and we're still going to have a relatively tough issuance comp in the first quarter.

因此，我們認為聯邦基金將在 2023 年第一季度的某個時間達到頂峰。但我們現在面臨的不利因素不會在一夜之間消失。我們認為要到 2023 年初才能解決其中的一些問題，而且我們在第一季度仍將面臨相對艱難的發行競爭。

And maybe it's worth to me just kind of saying, just in terms of where do I think we are in all of this. I think that the third and fourth quarters of this year are really kind of the trough for us in terms of the rate of issuance decline from prior periods. And I think that's going to gradually improve throughout 2023, and particularly in the second half of 2023, when we get some easier comps. So I think we're going to look for that certainty.

也許對我來說值得這樣說，就我認為我們在這一切中的位置而言。我認為今年第三季度和第四季度對我們來說確實是一個低谷，就發行量比前期下降而言。而且我認為這將在整個 2023 年逐漸改善，尤其是在 2023 年下半年，屆時我們將獲得一些更容易的比賽。所以我認為我們將尋找這種確定性。

As I said, what we typically see in terms of the markets opening up. So you see the investment -- big investment-grade issuers, you start to see opportunistic investment-grade issuance. And then you see higher-rated leveraged finance issuers starting to tap the market and really start to open the leveraged finance market back up. So we're going to want to have default rates that are under control, spreads that are -- as I said, that's what's important to look at, spreads around the historical averages. And then we'll start to see that leveraged finance market open up.

正如我所說，我們通常在市場開放方面看到的情況。所以你看到了投資——大型投資級發行人，你開始看到機會主義的投資級發行。然後你會看到評級較高的槓桿金融發行人開始進入市場，並真正開始重新打開槓桿金融市場。因此，我們希望將違約率控制在可控範圍內，利差——正如我所說，這是值得關注的，圍繞歷史平均水平的利差。然後我們將開始看到槓桿金融市場開放。

As I said, we've got a lot of backlog. We've got a lot of first-time mandates that have not tapped the markets, and we know there's a lot of private equity dry powder waiting to get deployed. So that's how I would think about when we can -- what it's going to take to start to kind of unlock the market.

正如我所說，我們有很多積壓工作。我們有很多沒有進入市場的首次授權，而且我們知道有很多私募股權乾粉等待部署。所以這就是我會考慮什麼時候我們可以 - 開始解鎖市場需要什麼。

Your next question is from the line of George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 George Tong。

Sticking with the topic of debt issuance. Your guidance implies 4Q issuance will be down in the low 40s range, similar to 3Q. If you looked at how 3Q progressed, did it get worse progressively moving through the quarter? And the first couple of weeks of October were quite weak, much, much steeper declines than -- in the low 40s. So just curious, what assumptions are you baking into 4Q? Are you assuming the exit rate from 3Q and early 4Q will reverse and get better such that you land at overall average 3Q levels? And if so, what are you seeing in the markets that would prompt that?

堅持發債的話題。您的指導意味著第四季度的發行量將在 40 年代的低位範圍內下降，與第三季度相似。如果您查看第三季度的進展情況，是否會在整個季度中逐漸惡化？ 10 月的前幾周非常疲軟，比 40 年代低點時的跌幅要大得多。所以只是好奇，你對第四季度有什麼假設？您是否假設第 3 季度和第 4 季度早期的退出率會逆轉並變得更好，從而使您達到 3 季度的總體平均水平？如果是這樣，你在市場上看到了什麼會促使這種情況發生？

George, this is Mark here. I think your underlying hypothesis and thesis is very consistent with the scenarios that we looked at in setting our guidance for the remainder of the year. We definitely overweighted the September and October month-to-date issuance, informing our outlook for the remainder of the year. However, there really are 2 key points I want to strike there.

喬治，這裡是馬克。我認為你的基本假設和論文與我們在為今年剩餘時間制定指導方針時所考慮的情景非常一致。我們肯定增持了 9 月和 10 月的最新發行，為我們對今年剩餘時間的展望提供了依據。但是，我確實想在那裡強調 2 個關鍵點。

One, the bands are wider now, thinking about the outlook for the year than what we've historically seen. And second, we do believe this disruption is predominantly cyclical in nature. You heard Rob talk about a minute ago that we may be at the low point of the cyclical cycle. So while we may see transactional revenue declines in the first half of next year, they're unlikely to be that same level of severity that we've seen in the fourth -- seen in the third quarter and are implied for the fourth quarter.

第一，現在範圍更廣，考慮到今年的前景比我們歷史上看到的要寬。其次，我們確實認為這種破壞主要是周期性的。您在一分鐘前聽到 Rob 談到我們可能正處於週期性週期的低點。因此，雖然我們可能會看到明年上半年的交易收入下降，但它們不太可能達到我們在第四季度看到的嚴重程度——在第三季度看到並且在第四季度隱含。

So those are the kind of things that we're thinking about sort of as we develop the forecast for the year and as we're thinking about the first half of next year.

所以這些是我們在製定今年的預測時以及在考慮明年上半年時正在考慮的事情。

Your next question is from the line of Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自 Owen Lau 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

Could you please talk about how the private credit markets have impacted your results? Is there any area that Moody's can still get a piece of it?

您能否談談私人信貸市場如何影響您的業績？穆迪是否還能分一杯羹？

And also, how do you think about your ability to achieve your medium-term targets, based on current backdrop?

此外，基於當前背景，您如何看待實現中期目標的能力？

Owen, thanks. So this is an interesting topic, and we've been getting some questions from investors about this. So let me share a few perspectives on this.

歐文，謝謝。所以這是一個有趣的話題，我們已經從投資者那裡收到了一些關於這個的問題。因此，讓我分享一些關於這方面的觀點。

First of all, just kind of the size of the market. It's about $1.2 trillion in 2021. It's expected to continue to grow, assuming that this asset class continues to hold up. But the segment of the market that represents, I think, the potential cannibalization risk are loans, I'd say, $300 million and up. That's kind of broadly the minimum threshold for deals that get done in the public market. And in 2021, something like $50 billion of those loans done in the private credit market versus a leveraged finance market that was, call it, $1.3 trillion.

首先，只是市場規模。到 2021 年約為 1.2 萬億美元。假設這一資產類別繼續保持下去，預計將繼續增長。但我認為，代表潛在蠶食風險的市場部分是貸款，我會說，3億美元以上。這大致是在公開市場上完成交易的最低門檻。到 2021 年，大約 500 億美元的貸款是在私人信貸市場上完成的，而槓桿金融市場的規模是 1.3 萬億美元。

So this year, we've had severe dislocation in the public leveraged finance markets. And that figure for that cohort of loans could be as high as kind of $90 billion to $100 billion. So yes, the private credit market was able to step in and provide some financing for certain transactions while the public markets were dislocated. But I think that actually brings us to an interesting question about risk and sustainability.

所以今年，我們在公共槓桿金融市場上出現了嚴重的混亂。這批貸款的數字可能高達 900 億至 1000 億美元。因此，是的，私人信貸市場能夠介入並為某些交易提供一些融資，而公共市場則處於混亂狀態。但我認為這實際上給我們帶來了一個關於風險和可持續性的有趣問題。

So private credit market clearly has more flexibility to provide higher leverage than public markets, meaningfully higher leverage. The private -- the cost of private debts is typically higher yielding, right? So more expensive than public markets. And leveraged companies with expensive debt typically have high default rates during periods of stress. So I just -- I'd be wary of people that tell you that this time or this sector is different.

因此，私人信貸市場顯然比公開市場具有更大的靈活性，可以提供更高的槓桿，明顯更高的槓桿。私人——私人債務的成本通常更高，對吧？所以比公共市場貴。負債高昂的槓桿公司通常在壓力時期的違約率很高。所以我只是 - 我會警惕那些告訴你這次或這個行業不同的人。

So it remains to be seen how this asset class is going to fare if we've got a meaningful increase in credit stress. I think it's probably going to be hard to get a true apples-to-apples comparison on default rates, given that private lenders may be able to renegotiate agreements in times of credit stress.

因此，如果我們的信貸壓力顯著增加，這一資產類別的表現還有待觀察。我認為可能很難對違約率進行真正的蘋果對蘋果的比較，因為私人貸方可能能夠在信貸壓力時期重新談判協議。

So that growth and that opacity in this market is leading some people to start to call for regulation. But it's also where I think that growth in capacity is where we can add value.

因此，這個市場的增長和不透明導致一些人開始呼籲進行監管。但這也是我認為容量增長是我們可以增加價值的地方。

So first, as I said, given the cost of private debt, I think, as corporate borrowers, as their credit profiles improve, I think we're going to see some of these companies want to move from the private credit markets into the public credit markets. So that growth of the private credit markets, I think, does represent some future first-time issuers into the public markets over time.

首先，正如我所說，考慮到私人債務的成本，我認為，隨著企業借款人信用狀況的改善，我認為我們將看到其中一些公司希望從私人信貸市場轉向公眾信貸市場。因此，我認為，私人信貸市場的增長確實代表了一些未來首次發行人進入公共市場。

Second of all, we're actively engaged in outreach in this market to see how we may be able to provide things like private ratings or credit assessments before those companies do, in fact, tap the public markets.

其次，我們正在積極參與這個市場的外展活動，看看我們如何能夠在這些公司真正進入公開市場之前提供諸如私人評級或信用評估之類的東西。

And the other thing I'd say is we're starting to engage with investors in these credit funds who are looking for more transparency as to the credit quality of the funds that they're invested in. And they're saying, "Hey. Rather than the internal risk ratings that these credit funds are using, we want to get an independent assessment of credit risk of the portfolio that we're invested in."

我要說的另一件事是，我們開始與這些信貸基金的投資者接觸，他們正在尋求更多關於他們所投資基金的信貸質量的透明度。他們說，“嘿. 而不是這些信用基金使用的內部風險評級，我們希望對我們投資的投資組合的信用風險進行獨立評估。”

So I think we're really well positioned to serve that particular need. We've got our risk calc and EDF credit models that are really considered the gold standard for portfolio and credit analysis around the world, and we're starting to develop a sales pipeline around that.

所以我認為我們已經做好了滿足這一特殊需求的準備。我們的風險計算和 EDF 信用模型被認為是全球投資組合和信用分析的黃金標準，我們正開始圍繞它開發銷售渠道。

So the last thing I'd say is -- so yes, private credit has been a meaningful source of leveraged finance funding this year as public markets were challenged. But we are seeing the market dynamics in that market starting to shift a bit as well. I mean, private credit is not immune to what we're seeing in the market. So you see credit funds cutting back on debt packages or increasing the equity component of deals or pulling back from big buyouts.

所以我要說的最後一件事是——是的，隨著公共市場受到挑戰，私人信貸今年一直是槓桿融資資金的重要來源。但我們看到該市場的市場動態也開始發生一些變化。我的意思是，私人信貸不能不受我們在市場上看到的影響。因此，您會看到信貸基金削減債務計劃或增加交易的股權部分或退出大型收購。

So while we're engaged with private borrowers, private equity, credit funds and investors to see how we can play a more important role by bringing transparency to this market. So stay tuned.

因此，當我們與私人借款人、私募股權、信貸基金和投資者接觸時，看看我們如何通過為這個市場帶來透明度來發揮更重要的作用。所以請繼續關注。

Owen, on your second question, just on the medium-term target. So we introduced medium-term guidance in February of this year, and we set 2021 as the base year. And that was obviously prior to the very significant geopolitical shocks that have resulted from the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well, as the unforeseen degree to which inflationary pressures, driven by post-pandemic demand-supply mismatches would emerge.

歐文，關於你的第二個問題，就中期目標而言。所以我們在今年2月份推出了中期指引，我們將2021年作為基準年。這顯然是在俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突導致的非常重大的地緣政治衝擊之前，因為由大流行後的供需不匹配驅動的通脹壓力將出現不可預見的程度。

In establishing our medium-term targets, we intentionally assumed a period of economic stress following 2 historically strong issuance years. And our assumptions included foreign exchange rate stability as well as the expectation for interest rates to gradually rise over this period with global GDP gradually decreasing. However, as we know, this is certainly not how 2022 has unfolded in the space, and the degree of macroeconomic headwinds with inflation at levels not experienced in decades.

在製定我們的中期目標時，我們有意假設在 2 個歷史上強勁的發行年份之後會出現一段經濟壓力。我們的假設包括匯率穩定以及在此期間隨著全球 GDP 逐漸下降，利率將逐漸上升的預期。然而，正如我們所知，這肯定不是 2022 年在太空中的發展方式，也不是宏觀經濟逆風的程度，通脹處於幾十年未見的水平。

And as a result, we've seen central banks rapidly rise rates in an attempt to current inflation expectation, and we've seen FX rates react quite significantly with the flight to quality. And so those factors collectively have contributed to a lot of what we spoke about on the call this morning, really that extended in more severe market disruption.

結果，我們看到中央銀行迅速加息以試圖滿足當前的通脹預期，而且我們看到外匯匯率對質量的追求做出了相當大的反應。因此，這些因素共同促成了我們今天上午在電話會議上談到的很多內容，實際上這導致了更嚴重的市場混亂。

Now fundamentally, we believe the underlying factors and drivers of our business remain firmly intact. And the key to achieving our medium-term targets is going to be heavily influenced now not only by the macroeconomic outlook, but also efforts around expense prudence and discipline, and the issuance recovery pattern that we're going to see in 2023 and beyond as issuers return to the market to refinance those existing obligations, fund their working capital needs and really invest for growth.

現在從根本上說，我們相信我們業務的潛在因素和驅動因素仍然完好無損。實現我們的中期目標的關鍵現在不僅受到宏觀經濟前景的嚴重影響，還受到圍繞費用審慎和紀律的努力，以及我們將在 2023 年及以後看到的發行複蘇模式的影響。發行人重返市場為這些現有債務再融資，滿足其營運資金需求並真正投資於增長。

And so given those developments, we'll be revising select medium-term guidance metrics when we hold our fourth quarter earnings call in February.

因此，鑑於這些事態發展，我們將在 2 月份舉行第四季度財報電話會議時修改選定的中期指導指標。

Your next question is from the line of Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

So I'm going to sneak in 2. Just 1 is on MA margins. I believe you increased your outlook for '22, and I'm curious if that -- like what's the reason for that? If you're maybe deferring some investments that you were originally planning to make this year? And sort of if you can talk about any sort of broad outlook on that for '23?

所以我要潛入 2。只有 1 在 MA 邊際。我相信你增加了對 22 年的展望，我很好奇這是否——比如這是什麼原因？如果您可能會推遲您最初計劃在今年進行的一些投資？如果你能談談 23 年的任何廣泛前景？

And just my second question is I believe you have some interest rate hedges in place where you've swapped your fixed rate for floating. So curious if you could share some perspective around what your exposure is to that and sort of when those hedges expire.

我的第二個問題是我相信你有一些利率對沖，你已經將固定利率換成浮動利率。很好奇您是否可以就您的風險敞口以及這些對沖何時到期分享一些看法。

Faiza, thank you for the questions. On MA's margin, I'll speak really about 2022. So after expanding MA's adjusted operating margin to be above 30% year-to-date, we obviously are pleased to raise our guidance to approximately 30%, which is up from approximately 29% last quarter. And that includes about 100 basis points of margin compression from unfavorable foreign exchange translation rate and approximately 30 basis points of net headwinds from recent acquisitions, primarily RMS. And what that really means is that the underlying MA margin is expected to expand by over 500 basis points off of 2021's actual result of 26%.

Faiza，謝謝你的提問。關於 MA 的利潤率，我將真正談論 2022 年。因此，在將 MA 的調整後營業利潤率擴大到年初至今的 30% 以上之後，我們顯然很高興將我們的指引從大約 29% 提高到大約 30%上個季度。這包括不利的外匯兌換率造成的約 100 個基點的利潤率壓縮以及最近收購（主要是 RMS）帶來的約 30 個基點的淨逆風。而這真正意味著，潛在 MA 利潤率預計將比 2021 年 26% 的實際結果擴大 500 個基點以上。

I will note that the 100 basis points improved full year margin outlook does reflect new and ongoing expense control initiatives, primarily supported through actions from our corporate or shared service areas. So we're still investing back in the business. And we still expect expenses to increase in support of growth opportunities in MA in the fourth quarter as we capitalize on our existing revenue momentum.

我會注意到，全年利潤率前景提高 100 個基點確實反映了新的和正在進行的費用控制計劃，主要通過我們的企業或共享服務領域的行動來支持。因此，我們仍在對該業務進行投資。隨著我們利用現有的收入勢頭，我們仍然預計第四季度的支出將增加以支持 MA 的增長機會。

On your second question around floating rate exposure. So we seek to maintain a floating rate exposure of between 20% and 50% of our overall debt portfolio. And although we initially issue all debt at a fixed rate, we do maintain a basket of interest rate and cross-currency swaps that convert a portion of outstanding fixed rate exposure to floating rate. So as of September 30, our floating rate debt was approximately 32% of the portfolio. And then now most importantly, that's apportioned as 28% euro exposure and just 4% U.S. dollar exposure.

關於浮動利率敞口的第二個問題。因此，我們尋求將浮動利率風險敞口維持在我們整體債務組合的 20% 至 50% 之間。雖然我們最初以固定利率發行所有債務，但我們確實維持一籃子利率和跨貨幣掉期，將部分未償固定利率敞口轉換為浮動利率。因此，截至 9 月 30 日，我們的浮動利率債務約佔投資組合的 32%。然後現在最重要的是，這被分配為 28% 的歐元敞口和 4% 的美元敞口。

So our swap portfolio has performed very well historically. It's reduced annual interest expense by about $55 million in 2021 and an anticipated $40 million this year. And it also brings our average -- weighted average cost of capital down by about 20 basis points to just over -- or just under 3.1%.

所以我們的掉期投資組合在歷史上表現非常好。它在 2021 年將年度利息支出減少了約 5500 萬美元，預計今年將減少 4000 萬美元。它還使我們的平均加權平均資本成本下降了約 20 個基點，略高於——或略低於 3.1%。

If I try to think forward now about the impact to our P&L from the latest forward curves and what they imply for euro and U.S. dollar moves, you could think about the swap portfolio is moving to a more neutral rather than positive impact. So taking that into account, plus the fact that we issued debt this past August, I would expect the actual interest expense in 2023 to be higher by between $40 million and $60 million.

如果我現在嘗試向前思考最新遠期曲線對我們的損益表的影響以及它們對歐元和美元走勢的影響，您可能會認為掉期投資組合正在轉向更加中性而不是積極的影響。因此，考慮到這一點，再加上我們在去年 8 月發行債券的事實，我預計 2023 年的實際利息支出將高出 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元。

Yes. And just to kind of reemphasize, the balance that we're trying to get right is being financially disciplined, while at the same time, making the investments that we need to make to continue accelerating ARR growth in MA.

是的。再次強調一下，我們試圖實現的平衡是在財務上自律，同時進行我們需要進行的投資，以繼續加速 MA 的 ARR 增長。

Your next question is from the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自於 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

Two quick housekeeping questions on pricing and incentive compensation costs. Historically, you guys raised prices usually 3% to 4% on average across the portfolio. What's it going to be this year, please? And is it materially different for the ratings business versus the overall? And then what's your outlook for price and maybe next year, maybe really to talk about that. But if you could touch on that, I appreciate it. And then what was the incentive comp in the third quarter versus what it was for the first 2 quarters?

關於定價和激勵補償成本的兩個快速內務問題。從歷史上看，你們通常將整個投資組合的價格平均提高 3% 到 4%。請問今年會怎樣？評級業務與整體業務是否存在重大差異？然後你對價格的展望是什麼，也許明年，也許真的要談論這個。但如果你能談到這一點，我很感激。那麼第三季度的激勵補償與前兩個季度的激勵對比是多少？

Craig, it's Rob. So on pricing, and I'll touch -- first of all, as we always say, we're looking for kind of a 3% to 4% annual price increase across all of our business. And I would say that if anything, the -- and you hear us talk about this all the time, the volatility and uncertainty has really reinforced the importance of what we're doing and the value of what we're doing.

克雷格，是羅伯。所以在定價方面，我會談到 - 首先，正如我們常說的那樣，我們正在尋找我們所有業務的每年 3% 到 4% 的價格上漲。我想說的是，如果有的話，你一直聽到我們談論這個，波動性和不確定性確實加強了我們正在做的事情的重要性和我們正在做的事情的價值。

In MIS, as we do every year, we conduct a very detailed review of our pricing across sectors and regions, and based on that work in the coming year, our list prices will probably reflect a bit more of an increase than our historical average. But our actual pricing realization as -- really as it always does, is going to depend on issuance mix. Where does the mix -- where does the issuance actually come from?

在 MIS 中，就像我們每年所做的那樣，我們對跨行業和跨地區的定價進行了非常詳細的審查，並且根據來年的工作，我們的定價可能會比我們的歷史平均水平反映更多的漲幅。但我們的實際定價實現——真的像往常一樣，將取決於發行組合。混合在哪裡 - 發行實際上來自哪裡？

In MA, we always think about our focus on kind of value-based pricing. And that's why product development and integration of our content is so important. We're looking to integrate new analytics and data sets into our offerings, because that allows us to support both price increases, but also upgrades and add-ons. And that's why we actually think about those 2 things together. And so we're continuing to see some very good usage and demand for our products. That continues to support the pricing opportunity going forward.

在 MA 中，我們總是考慮專注於基於價值的定價。這就是產品開發和內容整合如此重要的原因。我們正在尋求將新的分析和數據集集成到我們的產品中，因為這使我們能夠支持價格上漲以及升級和附加組件。這就是為什麼我們實際上一起考慮這兩件事。因此，我們繼續看到對我們產品的一些非常好的使用和需求。這繼續支持未來的定價機會。

The third quarter and year-to-date incentive compensation accrual was approximately $60 million and approximately $180 million, respectively. For the full year of 2022, we expect incentive compensation to be approximately $240 million. And that implies, obviously, approximately $60 million in the fourth quarter, and that's around 30% lower than the total incentive compensation we accrued for in 2021, and that's primarily driven by a downwardly revised outlook for rated issuance.

第三季度和年初至今的激勵薪酬應計分別約為 6,000 萬美元和約 1.8 億美元。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計激勵薪酬約為 2.4 億美元。顯然，這意味著第四季度約為 6000 萬美元，這比我們在 2021 年累積的總激勵薪酬低 30% 左右，這主要是由於評級發行前景向下修正所致。

Your next question is from the line of Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

Rob, I'm going to ask you about that trough comment. So if you could just be a little more specific what you meant when you think fourth and third quarter is likely to be a trough for debt issuance, noting that we still have unfavorable mix in the fourth quarter, like when would you expect MIS revenue to start to improve?

Rob，我要問你關於那個低谷的評論。因此，如果您認為第四季度和第三季度可能是債務發行的低谷時，您的意思可以更具體一點，並指出我們在第四季度仍然存在不利的組合，例如您預計 MIS 收入何時會開始改善？

Yes. So what I really meant was that the year-over-year quarterly declines in revenue in MIS, we would expect a trough in the third, fourth quarter of this year. Even though we've got -- so we've got a tough comp in the first quarter of next year from an issuance perspective. But we think that the rate of declines have probably bottomed out here in the third or fourth quarter, and we'll start to see gradual improvement throughout the balance of next year.

是的。所以我真正的意思是，MIS 的收入同比下降，我們預計今年第三、第四季度會出現低谷。即使我們已經 - 所以從發行的角度來看，我們在明年第一季度有一個艱難的競爭。但我們認為下降率可能在第三或第四季度觸底，我們將開始看到明年餘下時間的逐步改善。

Right. Okay, that's a revenue comment. I got it.

正確的。好的，這是收入評論。我知道了。

Your next question is from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Shlomo Rosenbaum。

I want to touch on both what Manav talked about and Toni talked about. With the refi walls that we keep talking about, how much real support is there from these refi walls for MIS revenue? Like if I were just flat out say, "Hey, 2022 midpoint of revenue guidance, if we just have our refi walls, that would provide X percent of revenue." Is that something you could provide so that we can get some kind of sense on that?

我想談談 Manav 和 Toni 談到的內容。有了我們一直在談論的 refi 牆，這些 refi 牆對 MIS 收入有多少真正的支持？就像我直截了當地說，“嘿，2022 年收入指導的中點，如果我們只有我們的 refi 牆，那將提供 X% 的收入。”您可以提供這些東西，以便我們對此有所了解嗎？

And then just on the refi walls, I mean, most of the people on this call or were on the call earlier this morning that heard the CFO saying, "Hey, with the rates going up, we're going to start paying down more debt." And I'm just trying to understand what leverage measured as debt divided by EBITDA, it doesn't take into account the interest expense. And CFOs, they want their earnings to increase besides just looking at debt to EBITDA. And how are you kind of factoring that into your refi wall expectations?

然後就在 refi 牆上，我的意思是，大多數在這個電話會議上或今天早上早些時候在電話會議上聽到 CFO 說，“嘿，隨著利率上升，我們將開始支付更多的費用債務。”而且我只是想了解以債務除以 EBITDA 衡量的槓桿，它沒有考慮利息費用。而首席財務官，除了關注 EBITDA 的債務外，他們還希望自己的收入增加。您如何將其納入您對 refi 牆的期望？

Yes. So maybe just to try to come back and triangulate to see if this can help. If you think about the -- and is the first part of your question, if you just think about the -- let's talk about in the corporate space. If you think about the maturities that are coming due in 2023, right, so we do our maturity walls. We've got 4 years of forward maturities. And then when we look at what our expectation is for corporate -- global corporate finance issuance for this year, and I understand the 2023 maturity walls are going to get refinanced next year.

是的。所以也許只是嘗試回來並進行三角測量，看看這是否有幫助。如果您考慮 - 並且是您問題的第一部分，如果您只是考慮 - 讓我們在企業領域討論。如果您考慮到 2023 年到期的到期日，對，所以我們會設置成熟度牆。我們有 4 年的遠期到期。然後，當我們看看我們對今年全球企業融資發行的預期是什麼時，我知道 2023 年到期的牆將在明年獲得再融資。

But just given current levels of activity is about 50%, right? So that, I think, is how you can start to size, right? And then you can say, okay, well, now as I think about the way to build to MIS revenue, well, 40% of it roughly is recurring revenue, then I've got 60% is transaction, how much is corporate and how much of those maturity walls there in corporate? Because that tends to be much more stable with financial institutions on kind of more regular issuance calendars and so on. So hopefully, that kind of gives you a sense of the size relative to the current activity levels in the market today.

但鑑於目前的活動水平約為 50%，對吧？所以，我認為，你可以如何開始調整大小，對吧？然後你可以說，好吧，好吧，現在當我考慮建立 MIS 收入的方式時，嗯，其中 40% 大致是經常性收入，然後我有 60% 是交易，公司有多少以及如何企業中有多少成熟的牆？因為對於金融機構來說，在更常規的發行日曆等方面，這往往會更加穩定。因此，希望這種方式能讓您了解相對於當今市場當前活動水平的規模。

And just on the deleveraging for a second, the dearth of issuance that we've seen, obviously, as a result of the year-to-date cyclical market disruption doesn't indicate or lead us to believe or expect the trend of deleveraging. Just think about the factor when estimating future refinancing activities, 1 factor is certainly rising rates. That's going to deter individual company treasuries from necessarily retiring use, for example, through -- or retiring debt, for example, through the use of any excess cash on the balance sheet.

就在去槓桿化過程中，顯然，由於年初至今的周期性市場動盪，我們所看到的發行量減少並不表明或導致我們相信或預期去槓桿化的趨勢。想想估計未來再融資活動時的因素，第一個因素肯定是利率上升。這將阻止個別公司的國庫券必然會退出使用，例如，通過或退出債務，例如，通過使用資產負債表上的任何多餘現金。

And the rationale we're thinking there is that as the cost of debt increases, companies are going to be more likely to retain debt that was borrowed at more favorable interest rates rather than pay off those borrowings and then incurring the potential risk of being required to reissue in the future at higher rates and, therefore, potentially lower investor demand.

我們認為的理由是，隨著債務成本的增加，公司將更有可能保留以更優惠利率借入的債務，而不是償還這些借款，然後承擔被要求的潛在風險未來以更高的利率重新發行，因此可能會降低投資者的需求。

Your next question is from the line of Russell Quelch with Redburn.

您的下一個問題來自雷德伯恩的 Russell Quelch。

A couple of questions. Firstly, am I right in saying that the ARR for Decision Solutions has fallen quarter-on-quarter from 11% previously to 10% this quarter? And if so, why? Maybe start there.

幾個問題。首先，我是否正確地說，決策解決方案的 ARR 已從之前的 11% 環比下降到本季度的 10%？如果是這樣，為什麼？也許從那裡開始。

I understand how you've drawn that conclusion, but I think there's some nuance here that we need to be able to provide to you. So ARR is an organic number and it always has been for us. So we have not had RMS in our ARR number that we have been reporting. So Decision Solutions' ARR grew about 10% in the quarter, but that's with RMS now included. It was not previously. So that created a 3 percentage point drag on Decision Solutions' ARR. That would have been 13% if we go back to the last quarter, Decision Solutions, now on a like-for-like basis was 11%.

我理解你是如何得出這個結論的，但我認為這裡有一些細微差別，我們需要能夠提供給你。所以 ARR 是一個有機數字，它一直是我們的。因此，我們一直在報告的 ARR 編號中沒有 RMS。因此，Decision Solutions 的 ARR 在本季度增長了約 10%，但現在包括 RMS。以前不是這樣。所以這對決策解決方案的 ARR 造成了 3 個百分點的拖累。如果我們回到上一季度決策解決方案，那將是 13%，現在按同類計算是 11%。

So we look at this as actually an acceleration of a like-for-like ARR. And I think everybody on this call knows that RMS has had a lower growth profile. We're confident about our ability to enhance that growth profile. But the ARR growth in RMS today is lower than MA, so it has a dilutive effect now that we're including it in the ARR metric.

所以我們認為這實際上是同類 ARR 的加速。而且我認為本次電話會議的每個人都知道 RMS 的增長情況較低。我們對我們提高增長狀況的能力充滿信心。但是今天 RMS 的 ARR 增長低於 MA，所以現在我們將它包含在 ARR 指標中，它具有稀釋效應。

I would say the same thing is true if we zoom out at the MA level, and I think that's important to understand, too. So RMS was about a 1 percentage point drag on overall MA ARR. So again, on a like-for-like basis, MA ARR, if we had not included RMS, would have been about 10%, up from 9% last quarter. And as you know, we're guiding to low double digit for the full year. So you heard me mention acceleration of ARR. That's why we feel that there's an acceleration of ARR.

如果我們在 MA 級別縮小，我會說同樣的事情，我認為理解這一點也很重要。所以 RMS 對整體 MA ARR 有大約 1 個百分點的拖累。同樣，在同類基礎上，如果我們不包括 RMS，MA ARR 將約為 10%，高於上一季度的 9%。如您所知，我們正在指導全年實現低兩位數。所以你聽到我提到 ARR 的加速。這就是為什麼我們覺得 ARR 會加速。

Yes, that makes sense. And just as a follow-up, I mean, given the experience of 2022, is now the time to look more seriously at scale M&A opportunities in MA as a way of reducing earnings volatility in the business? And I just wonder what your appetite for deals in this environment would be?

是的，這是有道理的。作為後續行動，我的意思是，鑑於 2022 年的經驗，現在是時候更認真地看待 MA 的規模併購機會，以減少業務中的盈利波動？我只是想知道您在這種環境下對交易的興趣是什麼？

Yes. So we have a very active approach to corporate development. We always have. We have some very well-defined product road maps and what we call business blueprints about what are our customers looking for across our various product suites and where do we have gaps. Obviously, we're pretty active last year and over the last several years, and we feel really good about bringing in RMS and really bulking up our capabilities around insurance and climate.

是的。因此，我們對企業發展採取了非常積極的態度。我們總是有。我們有一些非常明確的產品路線圖和我們所謂的業務藍圖，關於我們的客戶在我們的各種產品套件中尋找什麼以及我們在哪裡存在差距。顯然，我們去年和過去幾年非常活躍，我們對引入 RMS 並真正增強我們在保險和氣候方面的能力感到非常高興。

So we -- I think we feel pretty good about the portfolio that we've got. Sometimes it's harder to transact in these markets than you think because there's a bid-ask spread between what the sellers think is their valuation and what the buyers are willing to pay. And I would view us, I always have, as a disciplined buyer. We've got to make sure that we can achieve the synergies to make sure that we get -- hit the return hurdles that we want.

所以我們 - 我認為我們對我們擁有的投資組合感覺很好。有時在這些市場上進行交易比您想像的更難，因為在賣家認為的估值和買家願意支付的價格之間存在買賣差價。我會認為我們，我一直都是，作為一個有紀律的買家。我們必須確保我們能夠實現協同效應，以確保我們獲得 - 達到我們想要的回報障礙。

So I guess I would say we're always looking. We're very disciplined in this market. And we've been using this time to really integrate what we've acquired over the last several years and really make sure that we're getting the value out of those acquisitions that we were seeking to get. And frankly, we feel pretty good about the integration and the progress we're making around a number of those deals that we've done over the last few years.

所以我想我會說我們一直在尋找。我們在這個市場上非常自律。我們一直在利用這段時間真正整合我們在過去幾年中獲得的東西，並真正確保我們從我們尋求獲得的那些收購中獲得價值。坦率地說，我們對過去幾年完成的一些交易的整合和進展感覺非常好。

Your next question is from the line of Jeff Meuler with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Jeff Meuler 和 Baird。

Maybe if you could put some additional commentary around enhancing RMS' growth profile? So I caught that it's on track from a financial target perspective, but for instance, like how are the upgrades for the new platform going? Where are you in terms of integrating the heritage Moody's capabilities and leveraging MA's good market? And I guess related to it, I think there's some that think ESG has taken a bit of a hit in 2022. Is that showing through in terms of demand for your ESG solutions from clients and prospects or not?

也許您可以就增強 RMS 的增長概況發表一些額外的評論？所以我發現從財務目標的角度來看它正在走上正軌，但是例如，新平台的升級進展如何？在整合傳統穆迪的能力和利用 MA 的良好市場方面，您在哪裡？我想與此相關，我認為有些人認為 ESG 在 2022 年受到了一些打擊。這是否體現在客戶和潛在客戶對 ESG 解決方案的需求方面？

Yes. So I'd say I'm pretty encouraged by where we are with RMS. And we've got a number of things that we're making some real progress around integration. We're on track certainly for the financial targets that we announced at the time. We're at year end. We have confidence over our ability to continue to accelerate sales and revenue growth next year. I mean, you had asked about some of the tangible things that we're doing.

是的。所以我想說，我們在 RMS 方面取得的進展讓我感到非常鼓舞。我們已經在整合方面取得了一些真正的進展。我們當時宣布的財務目標肯定走上了正軌。我們在年底。我們對明年繼續加快銷售和收入增長的能力充滿信心。我的意思是，你問過我們正在做的一些有形的事情。

Let me just touch on a few. So we've had some really nice traction around what we call ESG for underwriting. And that's taking Moody's ESG content and then being able to integrate it into the underwriting and portfolio management processes of RMS customers. And one of the things that our customers were looking for is just very broad coverage. And so that's been -- we've made some very good progress there.

讓我簡單談談幾個。因此，我們在我們所謂的 ESG 承保方面獲得了一些非常好的牽引力。這就是利用穆迪的 ESG 內容，然後將其整合到 RMS 客戶的承銷和投資組合管理流程中。我們的客戶正在尋找的一件事就是非常廣泛的覆蓋範圍。就這樣 - 我們在那裡取得了一些非常好的進展。

Second, we've been integrating RMS' life risk models into our existing life offerings. And then on climate, and as you know, when we announced this deal, we wanted to be able to move much more substantively into insurance but we also want to be able to leverage their climate capabilities. And we're developing a pretty thorough product road map around what we call Climate on Demand. And so we've been engaging with a lot of customers in the banking and commercial real estate space about what they need and want around climate, and we're building out that capability, leveraging the RMS IP and models, and we're building a sales pipeline for that.

其次，我們一直在將 RMS 的人壽風險模型整合到我們現有的人壽產品中。然後是氣候問題，如你所知，當我們宣布這筆交易時，我們希望能夠更實質性地進入保險領域，但我們也希望能夠利用他們的氣候能力。我們正在圍繞我們所謂的氣候隨需制定一個非常全面的產品路線圖。因此，我們一直在與銀行和商業房地產領域的許多客戶就他們在氣候方面的需求和需求進行交流，我們正在構建這種能力，利用 RMS IP 和模型，我們正在構建一個銷售渠道。

Another area that we see a lot of synergy is around commercial real estate. You've got -- RMS has a depth of information, obviously, about the physical risk relating to properties. We have enormous amount of information about a wide range of aspects of any given property in terms of market, location, creditworthiness of tenants and so on. And so we're pulling all of that together to create what we call kind of a high-definition view of real estate. And we think that, that's going to be a very interesting offering for us.

我們看到很多協同作用的另一個領域是商業房地產。你已經得到了——顯然，RMS 擁有關於與財產相關的物理風險的大量信息。在市場、位置、租戶的信譽等方面，我們擁有關於任何給定財產的廣泛方面的大量信息。因此，我們將所有這些整合在一起，以創建我們所謂的房地產高清視圖。我們認為，這對我們來說將是一個非常有趣的產品。

I'm only going to touch on ESG very briefly because there's a lot more I can get into. But around ESG, what we're starting to see is that there is more and more demand to be able to translate ESG and climate specifically to financial risk with the rigor that the market wants and needs. So I kind of think of that as version 2.0 of what the market is looking for.

我只會非常簡短地談一談 ESG，因為我還可以深入探討。但在 ESG 方面，我們開始看到越來越多的需求能夠將 ESG 和氣候具體轉化為金融風險，並符合市場的需求。所以我認為這是市場正在尋找的 2.0 版本。

Second, the market needs very broad coverage. And this is where we're having some great conversations with our banking insurance customers who say, "I need to understand the ESG profile of, say, 150,000 companies." Well, we've got coverage on 300 million companies, leveraging the Orbis database and our modeling and ESG capabilities. So that is a source of real competitive differentiation for us.

其次，市場需要非常廣泛的覆蓋面。這就是我們與銀行保險客戶進行精彩對話的地方，他們說：“我需要了解 150,000 家公司的 ESG 概況。”好吧，我們已經覆蓋了 3 億家公司，利用了 Orbis 數據庫以及我們的建模和 ESG 功能。所以這對我們來說是真正的競爭差異化的來源。

And then lastly, there's just -- there's growing demand for understanding the physical risk related to extreme weather and climate change and transition. And with RMS, we've got that at scale.

最後，人們越來越需要了解與極端天氣和氣候變化及過渡相關的物理風險。借助 RMS，我們可以大規模實現這一目標。

Maybe just 2 quick numbers around that. So we are maintaining our expectation for 2022 RMS sales growth to be in the mid-single-digit percent range. And that's obviously up from RMS' historical growth rate in the low single-digit at percent range. We also now expect RMS to become accretive or moderately accretive to adjusted diluted EPS in 2023. So that's a year earlier than what we previously projected in our deal model and as we communicated previously to the market. And then finally, our expectation for ESG and climate-related revenue is for a low double-digit percent growth this year to approximately $190 million.

也許只有 2 個快速數字。因此，我們維持對 2022 年 RMS 銷售增長在中個位數百分比範圍內的預期。這顯然高於 RMS 在低個位數百分比範圍內的歷史增長率。我們現在還預計 RMS 將在 2023 年對調整後的攤薄每股收益增加或適度增加。因此，這比我們之前在交易模型中的預測以及我們之前向市場傳達的預測提前了一年。最後，我們對 ESG 和氣候相關收入的預期是今年將實現兩位數的低增長，達到約 1.9 億美元。

Yes. And maybe the last thing I'd add kind of beyond the numbers, but this stuff is important is we just found that the marriage with RMS has been a great cultural fit. And our teams are working really well together. I think that bodes really well for our ability to kind of deliver on integrated risk assessment together.

是的。也許我要補充的最後一件事是超出數字，但這很重要，因為我們剛剛發現與 RMS 的婚姻非常適合文化。我們的團隊合作得非常好。我認為這預示著我們能夠共同進行綜合風險評估。

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

您的下一個問題是瑞銀集團的亞歷克斯·克拉姆 (Alex Kramm) 的後續問題。

I know it's late in the call, but just coming back to my original question from earlier, Mark, your mid-50s comment on MIS was helpful. But I think it's somebody else said, there's probably some sort of growth assumption embedded in that. So if I may come back to the specifics I asked about earlier, like can you give us a little bit more help when it comes to the net impact of the $200 million restructuring this year and next year? And then how we should be thinking about incremental margins in MIS as we think about 2023? I think that would be helpful as we have our own growth assumptions, clearly.

我知道電話已經晚了，但是回到我之前的原始問題，馬克，你 50 多歲對 MIS 的評論很有幫助。但我認為這是其他人所說的，其中可能包含某種增長假設。所以，如果我可以回到我之前問過的具體細節，比如關於今年和明年 2 億美元重組的淨影響，你能給我們更多的幫助嗎？然後，在考慮 2023 年時，我們應該如何考慮 MIS 的增量利潤？我認為這會有所幫助，因為我們有自己的增長假設，很明顯。

Alex, I appreciate you coming back into the queue to ask this question. I am -- we would like to intentionally not front-run our MIS revenue outlook for 2023. I think what we are comfortable committing to as a management team is what we're able to control. And we certainly are able to control our expense base. And I think what we're also comfortable to commit to you is that we'll get the 2023 MIS adjusted operating margin at least in that mid-50s percentage range. In other words, as you consider modeling this out, we don't want you to take the approximately 51% that we're guiding to -- for 2022 and assume that's a new baseline.

亞歷克斯，非常感謝您回到隊列中提出這個問題。我是——我們不想提前預測我們 2023 年的 MIS 收入前景。我認為作為一個管理團隊，我們能夠輕鬆地承諾的是我們能夠控制的。我們當然能夠控制我們的開支基礎。而且我認為我們也很樂意向您承諾的是，我們將至少在 50 年代中期的百分比範圍內獲得 2023 年 MIS 調整後的營業利潤率。換句話說，當您考慮對此進行建模時，我們不希望您採用我們指導的大約 51% - 到 2022 年並假設這是一個新的基線。

Yes. And I guess, Alex, I would say we don't want to base that on just hoping that there's growth in order to get to that level. So we -- hope is not a strategy. So we've really tried to think about the expense base without having to think that the only way that we can get to that margin that Mark is talking about is by having a huge snapback in revenue. Hopefully, that gives you a little bit of insight.

是的。我想，亞歷克斯，我想說我們不想僅僅希望有增長才能達到那個水平。所以我們——希望不是一種策略。因此，我們真的試圖考慮費用基礎，而不必認為我們可以獲得馬克所說的利潤的唯一方法是收入大幅回升。希望這能給您一些見解。

No, I appreciate it very much.

不，我非常感謝。

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

您的下一個問題是 Manav Patnaik 與巴克萊銀行的後續問題。

Sorry. Maybe I can just follow up a complete with a follow-up to that question. So the $200 million in savings, is that all in the MIS business? Is that how you get to the mid-50s and I guess any kind of margin connecting for any in the same regard?

對不起。也許我可以對這個問題進行後續跟進。那麼，這 2 億美元的儲蓄是否全部用於 MIS 業務？這就是你進入 50 年代中期的方式嗎？我猜想在同一方面任何一種保證金都有聯繫嗎？

Manav, the $200 million or at least $200 million in run rate savings of our 2023 expense base will benefit both MIS and MA. As you can anticipate or you could probably infer, the benefit to MIS may be larger than the benefit to MA, given how we're targeting expenses. We're being very deliberate and very thoughtful around how we manage the expense base for the 2 businesses as well as the allocation of corporate expenses.

Manav，我們 2023 年費用基礎的 2 億美元或至少 2 億美元的運行率節省將使 MIS 和 MA 受益。正如您可以預期或您可能推斷的那樣，考慮到我們如何瞄準費用，MIS 的收益可能大於 MA 的收益。我們在如何管理這兩項業務的費用基礎以及公司費用的分配方面非常慎重和深思熟慮。

On the MA adjusted margin, as we think about it, I think the way I'd propose to think about this through our medium-term lens here. And there, I would say that we remain on track to achieve our medium-term adjusted operating margin for MA of a mid-30s percent range within that 3 to 5 years. And that's primarily due to, as you heard on this call, increase in the proportion of subscription-based product sales. They provide improved operating leverage, especially as recurring revenue becomes an increasing proportion of MA's total revenue base.

在我們考慮的 MA 調整後的利潤率上，我認為我建議通過我們的中期視角來考慮這個問題。在那裡，我想說的是，我們仍有望在 3 到 5 年內實現 MA 的中期調整後營業利潤率在 30% 左右的範圍內。正如您在本次電話會議上所聽到的，這主要是由於基於訂閱的產品銷售比例增加。它們提供了更好的運營槓桿，特別是當經常性收入在 MA 總收入基礎中所佔的比例越來越大時。

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題是來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh 的後續問題。

There's been a lot of questions on corporate issuance. But I wonder, Mark, if you could talk about your own debt. It seems a little high. Anything to kind of call out there? Just is it timing? Maybe you could just frame that for us a little bit?

關於企業發行存在很多問題。但我想知道，馬克，你能不能談談你自己的債務。好像有點高。有什麼好叫的嗎？只是時機嗎？也許你可以為我們稍微構圖一下？

Kevin, thanks very much for the question. So we remain committed to anchoring our financial leverage around a BBB+ rating, which we believe provides the appropriate balance between ensuring ongoing financial flexibility and lowering the cost of capital. And capital management at Moody's really does extend beyond prudent allocation. We are thoughtful about our leverage and liquidity levels, as well as maintaining a strong balance sheet.

凱文，非常感謝這個問題。因此，我們仍然致力於將我們的財務槓桿錨定在 BBB+ 評級附近，我們認為這在確保持續的財務靈活性和降低資本成本之間提供了適當的平衡。穆迪的資本管理確實超越了審慎的配置。我們深思熟慮我們的槓桿和流動性水平，以及保持強大的資產負債表。

And over the last 2 years, we have enhanced our capital position and reduced our cost of capital, both by structuring a well-laddered debt maturity schedule and by extending our debt maturity profile to take advantage of, at the time, was a relatively flat yield curve and historically at low rates. Although our net debt to adjusted operating income, and I think this is the point that you're getting at, was 2.3x as of September 30, and that's well within the BBB+ rating range when accounting for our cash position, we have seen an uptick in our gross debt to adjusted operating income range, which was approximately 2.9x as of September 30.

在過去的 2 年裡，我們通過構建一個階梯式的債務到期時間表和擴展我們的債務到期狀況以利用當時相對平坦的優勢，提高了我們的資本狀況並降低了資本成本收益率曲線和歷史上的低利率。儘管截至 9 月 30 日，我們的淨債務與調整後營業收入之比為 2.3 倍，而且我認為這是您所要達到的水平，而且在考慮到我們的現金狀況時，這完全在 BBB+ 評級範圍內，但我們已經看到了我們的總債務上升至調整後的營業收入範圍，截至 9 月 30 日約為 2.9 倍。

And that's a direct result of the significantly weakened global economic conditions, again, relative to our first and second quarter outlooks. And that means we are considering the possibility of perhaps executing a very smaller, very limited debt repurchase strategy in the coming months, just allowing us to opportunistically take advantage of current market conditions to marginally, marginally, marginally, delever our balance sheet and improve our gross debt position.

相對於我們的第一和第二季度展望，這也是全球經濟狀況顯著疲軟的直接結果。這意味著我們正在考慮可能在未來幾個月內執行一個非常小的、非常有限的債務回購策略，只是讓我們能夠機會主義地利用當前的市場條件來輕微、輕微、輕微地去槓桿化我們的資產負債表並改善我們的資產負債表。總債務頭寸。

That's helpful. And then I know it's getting late, but Mark, just any comments on CapEx for the balance of the year?

這很有幫助。然後我知道已經很晚了，但是馬克，對今年餘下的資本支出有何評論？

Absolutely. We expect CapEx for full year 2022 to be approximately $300 million. As a reminder, there are a number of factors underpinning our CapEx guidance, including our strategic shift to developing SaaS-based solutions for our customers, continued acquisition, integration activities, specifically around our recent KYC and RMS acquisition, as well as ongoing enhancements to our office and IT infrastructure associated with some of our workplace of the future programs.

絕對地。我們預計 2022 年全年的資本支出約為 3 億美元。提醒一下，支持我們的資本支出指導的因素有很多，包括我們向客戶開發基於 SaaS 的解決方案的戰略轉變、持續的收購、整合活動，特別是圍繞我們最近的 KYC 和 RMS 收購，以及持續增強我們的辦公室和 IT 基礎設施與我們未來計劃的一些工作場所相關聯。

We're not providing guidance for 2023. However, we do currently foresee absolute dollar CapEx to remain at similar levels to 2022, especially as we continue to emphasize developing hosted solutions.

我們沒有為 2023 年提供指導。但是，我們目前確實預計絕對美元資本支出將保持在與 2022 年相似的水平，尤其是在我們繼續強調開發託管解決方案的情況下。

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

您的下一個問題是 Craig Huber 與 Huber Research Partners 的後續問題。

Mark, do me a favor. Can you just dig in a little bit further on your 2022 expense bridge attribution? And also curious what's your currency sensitivity right now on costs?

馬克，幫我一個忙。您能否進一步深入了解您的 2022 年費用過橋歸因？並且好奇你現在對成本的貨幣敏感度是多少？

On the 2022 expense outlook, we are lowering our full year 2022 operating expense guidance from growth in the high single-digit percent range to the upper end of the mid-single-digit percent range. And our outlook for the year assumes additional expense accruals in the fourth quarter of up to $55 million related to the expanded restructuring program that we've spoken about.

關於 2022 年費用前景，我們將 2022 年全年運營費用指引從高個位數百分比範圍的增長下調至中個位數百分比範圍的上限。我們對今年的展望假設第四季度與我們談到的擴大重組計劃相關的額外費用計提高達 5500 萬美元。

If I were to exclude these restructuring-related charges, our outlook for the full year operating expenses would have been at the lower end of the mid-single-digit percent growth range. And that's just demonstrating the ongoing expense discipline and prudence, especially compared to our full year guide back in February, which was for an increasingly low double-digit range for expenses at that time.

如果我排除這些與重組相關的費用，我們對全年運營費用的展望將處於中個位數百分比增長范圍的下限。這只是展示了持續的費用紀律和謹慎性，特別是與我們在 2 月份的全年指南相比，當時的費用範圍越來越低，兩位數。

Specifically to your question, Craig, for the full year 2022, we anticipate expense growth of approximately 7 percentage points related to acquisitions completed in the last 12 months. It's primarily RMS. Approximately 3 percentage points related to the restructuring program, and then ongoing growth and investments, net of cost efficiencies and lower incentive compensation, is approximately flat. And then there's a small partial offset from favorable movements in foreign exchange rates of approximately 4 percentage points. That should get you to that answer.

具體到您的問題，克雷格，對於 2022 年全年，我們預計與過去 12 個月完成的收購相關的費用增長約 7 個百分點。它主要是 RMS。與重組計劃相關的大約 3 個百分點，然後是持續增長和投資，扣除成本效率和較低的激勵薪酬後，大致持平。然後，大約 4 個百分點的有利匯率變動部分抵消了一小部分。那應該讓你得到那個答案。

On your second question just on FX, we have seen significant moves this quarter in FX. And so if I were to update the annualized impacts of further foreign currency movements for modeling purposes, they would be every $0.01 movement between the U.S. dollar and the euro will impact full year EPS by approximately $0.03 and then full year revenue by approximately $10 million. And then every $0.01 FX movement between the dollar and the pound, that impacts full year revenue by approximately $2 million and then full year operating expenses by $2 million, so call that effectively neutral on an EPS basis.

關於你關於外彙的第二個問題，我們看到本季度外匯市場出現重大變化。因此，如果我出於建模目的更新進一步外幣變動的年化影響，美元和歐元之間每變動 0.01 美元，就會影響全年每股收益約 0.03 美元，然後全年收入約 1000 萬美元。然後美元和英鎊之間每 0.01 美元的外匯變動，這會影響全年收入約 200 萬美元，然後全年運營費用會增加 200 萬美元，因此在每股收益的基礎上，這實際上是中性的。

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題是 Owen Lau 與 Oppenheimer 的後續問題。

Could you please talk about, is there any impact from the Inflation Reduction Act on your share repurchases program?

能否請您談談，《通脹降低法案》對您的股票回購計劃有影響嗎？

I don't think we expect any material impact -- tax impact, at least on share repo.

我認為我們預計不會有任何實質性影響——稅收影響，至少在股票回購方面。

Your next question is a follow-up from the line of Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.

您的下一個問題是 Shlomo Rosenbaum 與 Stifel 的後續問題。

Rob, MA revenue has been remarkably resilient. I was just wondering, is there any areas within there that you would think if we head into like a real significant recession, that we would start to see some kind of changes in growth rates over there? Like how should we think about that on a component basis?

Rob, MA 的收入一直非常有彈性。我只是想知道，如果我們進入真正的嚴重衰退，您會認為那裡是否有任何區域，我們會開始看到那裡的增長率發生某種變化？比如我們應該如何在組件的基礎上考慮這一點？

Yes, Shlomo, great question. I mentioned in the opening remarks that MA, it's been pretty acyclical. And I know it might sound trite, but it is because they're providing these mission-critical products that are helping organizations deal with risk. So in times of stress, the value prop of our offerings actually increases. And we see that with things like our CreditView usage that's up on a year-over-year basis.

是的，Shlomo，好問題。我在開場白中提到 MA，它是非常非週期性的。而且我知道這聽起來可能很陳詞濫調，但這是因為他們提供的這些關鍵任務產品正在幫助組織應對風險。因此，在壓力時期，我們產品的價值支撐實際上會增加。我們看到，我們的 CreditView 使用量逐年增加。

And I have to say, I've been meeting with a lot of customers. And the strategy to help customers with this multidimensional and integrated perspective on risk, it really does resonate, and I think it resonates more now than ever. We're having some really great conversations with our customers. So we feel good about that.

我不得不說，我遇到了很多客戶。以這種多維和綜合的風險視角幫助客戶的策略確實引起了共鳴，我認為它現在比以往任何時候都更能引起共鳴。我們正在與客戶進行一些非常棒的對話。所以我們對此感覺很好。

If you think about like a severe downturn, let's take the global financial crisis. In that case, what we saw was that we had some bankruptcies, we had some consolidations in certain sectors. The banking sector, obviously, was under pretty severe stress. And at the time, a much bigger proportion of MA's customer base was banking. So we were more exposed to the banking sector at that time. And we did see that we -- retention rates would tick down a little bit as we lose customers.

如果您考慮嚴重的經濟衰退，那麼讓我們以全球金融危機為例。在那種情況下，我們看到的是我們有一些破產，我們在某些領域進行了一些整合。顯然，銀行業承受著相當嚴重的壓力。而在當時，MA 的客戶群中有很大一部分是銀行業務。所以我們當時更多地接觸銀行業。我們確實看到我們 - 隨著我們失去客戶，保留率會下降一點。

And we've talked about in the calls before, our retention rates are pretty high right now. But we could also see some lengthening of sales cycles. I think others would see the same kinds of things, more challenging pricing discussions, which is why back to that point I made around pricing, it's so important to be thinking about what is the value that you're driving into the products to be able to support pricing. That's really important to be able to communicate that to your customers in times like this.

我們之前在電話會議中談到過，我們現在的保留率非常高。但我們也可以看到銷售週期有所延長。我認為其他人會看到同樣的事情，更具挑戰性的定價討論，這就是為什麼回到我圍繞定價提出的那一點，思考你為產品帶來的價值是什麼非常重要支持定價。在這種情況下，能夠與您的客戶交流這一點非常重要。

But I guess the last thing I'd say, Shlomo, yes, it's a pretty challenging environment right now. And not only are we not seeing that, but as I said earlier, we're actually accelerating ARR growth in MA in the current environment.

但我想我要說的最後一件事是，Shlomo，是的，現在這是一個非常具有挑戰性的環境。我們不僅沒有看到這一點，而且正如我之前所說，在當前環境下，我們實際上正在加速 MA 的 ARR 增長。

And at this time, there are no further questions. Please continue with any closing remarks.

而此時，沒有進一步的問題。請繼續任何結束語。

Okay. With that, thank you, everybody, for joining. I appreciate the questions, and we'll talk to you on the next earnings call. Have a good day.

好的。有了這個，謝謝大家的加入。我很欣賞這些問題，我們將在下一次財報電話會議上與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes Moody's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available immediately after the call on the Moody's IR website. Thank you.

穆迪 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議至此結束。提醒一下，在本次電話會議之後，該公司將在穆迪投資者關係主頁的“投資者資源”部分下發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，穆迪投資者關係網站上的電話會議後將立即提供重播。謝謝你。