穆迪 (MCO) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。此時，我想通知大家，本次會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. This morning, Moody's released its results for the first quarter of 2023 as well as our revised outlook for select metrics for full year 2023. The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

謝謝。下午好，感謝您今天加入我們。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。今天上午，穆迪發布了 2023 年第一季度的業績以及我們對 2023 年全年部分指標的修訂展望。收益新聞稿和本次電話會議的演示文稿均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上獲取.

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for a reconciliation between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in U.S. GAAP.

在此電話會議期間，我們還將提供非 GAAP 或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天上午提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，了解本次電話會議期間引用的所有調整後指標在美國 GAAP 中的對賬情況。

I call your attention to the safe harbor language which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website. These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

我提請您注意在我們的收益發布結束時可以找到的安全港語言。今天的評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論和分析部分以及我們年度報告中討論的風險因素表格截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K，以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。這些連同安全港聲明列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果存在重大差異的重要因素。

I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode.

我還想指出，媒體成員今天上午可能會以只聽模式接聽電話。

Rob Fauber, Moody's President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of our results, key business highlights and outlook. After which, he'll be joined by Mark Kaye, Moody's Chief Financial Officer, to answer your questions.

穆迪總裁兼首席執行官 Rob Fauber 將概述我們的業績、主要業務亮點和展望。之後，穆迪首席財務官 Mark Kaye 將與他一起回答您的問題。

I will now turn the call over to Rob.

我現在將把電話轉給 Rob。

Thanks, Shivani, and good afternoon, and thanks to everybody for joining today's call. As we typically do, I'm going to touch on a few takeaways from our first quarter results and provide some insights into what's supporting our growth outlook. And this quarter, I'm also going to drill down a little bit on our Decision Solutions line of business in MA as that's a very important growth area for us. And then, of course, Mark and I will be happy to take your questions.

謝謝，Shivani，下午好，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。正如我們通常所做的那樣，我將談談我們第一季度業績的一些要點，並就支持我們增長前景的因素提供一些見解。本季度，我還將深入了解我們在 MA 的決策解決方案業務線，因為這對我們來說是一個非常重要的增長領域。然後，當然，馬克和我會很樂意回答你的問題。

So while the first quarter experienced some market turbulence from the stress in the U.S. banking sector, and as is frequently the case, this heightened market uncertainty drove some strong demand for both our insights and our risk assessment offerings, and we saw some very strong upticks in usage this quarter.

因此，雖然第一季度因美國銀行業的壓力而經歷了一些市場動盪，而且這種情況經常發生，但這種加劇的市場不確定性推動了對我們的洞察力和風險評估產品的強烈需求，我們看到了一些非常強勁的上漲本季度的使用情況。

We're also continuing to unlock the potential of MA and its great assets and businesses, and those include one of the world's premier credit and economics research businesses; a data and information business that includes one of the world's largest databases on companies; and our award-winning Decision Solutions businesses serving KYC, banking and insurance workflows. And together, MA delivered 10% ARR growth as we continue to enhance and extend our mission-critical data analytics and workflow solutions.

我們還將繼續釋放 MA 及其巨大資產和業務的潛力，其中包括世界一流的信用和經濟研究業務之一；數據和信息業務，包括世界上最大的公司數據庫之一；以及我們屢獲殊榮的決策解決方案業務，為 KYC、銀行和保險工作流程提供服務。隨著我們繼續增強和擴展我們的關鍵任務數據分析和工作流解決方案，MA 共同實現了 10% 的 ARR 增長。

Now while MIS revenue declined 11% from a pretty robust first quarter of 2022, as we talked about on prior earnings calls, the anticipated rate of revenue decline did indeed moderate from what we experienced in the third and fourth quarters of last year as MIS really capitalized on strong investment-grade issuance in the first quarter. Improvement in issuance activity, combined with our decisive expense actions that we took last quarter, together enabled us to deliver more operating leverage, as reflected by the meaningful increase in MIS's operating margin to almost 57%.

現在，儘管 MIS 收入比 2022 年第一季度相當強勁的收入下降了 11%，正如我們在之前的財報電話會議上所談到的那樣，但預期的收入下降速度確實比我們去年第三和第四季度經歷的要緩和，因為 MIS 確實利用第一季度強勁的投資級發行量。發行活動的改善，加上我們上個季度採取的果斷支出行動，共同使我們能夠提供更多的經營槓桿，這反映在 MIS 的營業利潤率顯著增加至近 57%。

And notably, the adjusted operating margin for the first quarter is up about 500 basis points over the margin for full year 2022. And at the same time, we're maintaining financial flexibility while funding strategic investments in things like product development, sales and go-to-market initiatives, modern cloud-based workflow platforms, data interoperability and accessibility and AI innovation, all to position us for the future.

值得注意的是，第一季度調整後的營業利潤率比 2022 年全年的利潤率高出約 500 個基點。與此同時，我們在保持財務靈活性的同時為產品開發、銷售等方面的戰略投資提供資金。 - 上市計劃、基於雲的現代工作流平台、數據互操作性和可訪問性以及人工智能創新，所有這些都為我們的未來定位。

So now let me move on to some of the results. And there are a few key things I want to highlight amongst the performance numbers that you see on the screen. First, MA revenue grew at 6% or 9% on a constant currency basis. ARR grew 10%, and we had solid growth across the board in Data & Information, Research & Insights and Decision Solutions. I'm going to touch on that in a little bit more detail in a few minutes.

現在讓我繼續談談一些結果。在您在屏幕上看到的性能數字中，我想強調一些關鍵事項。首先，按固定匯率計算，MA 收入增長了 6% 或 9%。 ARR 增長了 10%，我們在數據和信息、研究和洞察以及決策解決方案方面全面實現了穩健增長。我將在幾分鐘內更詳細地討論這一點。

And as I'd mentioned just a couple of minutes ago, MIS revenue was down versus a challenging Q1 2022 comparable before issuance volumes really decelerated through the balance of last year. And Corporate Finance accounted for most of the decline this quarter, particularly in bank loans, and that was followed by Structured Finance as we saw some deals delayed amidst the market volatility in the quarter.

正如我幾分鐘前提到的那樣，MIS 收入與具有挑戰性的 2022 年第一季度相比有所下降，之後發行量在去年餘下時間真正減速。企業融資佔本季度下降的大部分，尤其是銀行貸款，其次是結構融資，因為我們看到一些交易在本季度的市場波動中被推遲。

So despite overall revenues down 3% in the quarter, our overall adjusted operating margin was 44.6%, and that was up approximately 200 basis points versus our full year 2022 margin, again, reflecting the benefit of those cost efficiency initiatives. And adjusted diluted earnings per share was $2.99, and that includes $0.75 of aggregate benefits from the resolution of several outstanding tax matters.

因此，儘管本季度總收入下降了 3%，但我們調整後的總體營業利潤率為 44.6%，與 2022 年全年利潤率相比上升了約 200 個基點，這再次反映了這些成本效率舉措的好處。調整後的攤薄每股收益為 2.99 美元，其中包括 0.75 美元的解決幾個未決稅務問題的總收益。

So I mentioned earlier the upticks in usage that we experienced across several products in the first quarter. And on the screen, I think you can get a sense for that. During the recent stress in the banking sector, traffic to our flagship website, moodys.com, was up approximately 20% from the prior year period. And that's important for a few reasons.

所以我之前提到了第一季度我們在多個產品中經歷的使用率上升。在屏幕上，我想你可以感覺到這一點。在銀行業最近的壓力下，我們旗艦網站 moodys.com 的訪問量比去年同期增長了約 20%。這很重要，原因有幾個。

First, as you've heard me say before, we've got the most experienced analytical teams in the industry, and that is why we have been recognized as the Best Credit Rating Agency by Institutional Investor Magazine 11 times in a row. And that experience allows us to be the industry's thought leader, which is even more important in times of stress and uncertainty like we experienced in the first quarter. And that thought leadership also drives increased demand for our insights, for our research and for access to our analysts. And together, that all supports our value proposition and our growth opportunity for both ratings and research.

首先，正如你之前聽我說過的，我們擁有業內最有經驗的分析團隊，這就是為什麼我們連續 11 次被《機構投資者》雜誌評為最佳信用評級機構。這種經驗使我們成為行業的思想領袖，這在我們在第一季度經歷的壓力和不確定時期更為重要。這種思想領導力也推動了對我們的見解、研究和與分析師接觸的需求增加。總之，所有這些都支持我們的價值主張和我們在評級和研究方面的增長機會。

Now demand for our solutions during times of stress and uncertainty goes beyond ratings and research, and you can see it across a range of MA offerings. And during the peak period of banking stress last month, usage of our cloud-based Asset and Liability Management Solution, which enables banks to model and manage their maturity, interest rate and liquidity risk, rose nearly 50%. And with -- as we were witnessing unprecedented deposit flows moving across banks, the use of our screening and risk monitoring KYC solutions grew by almost 30%.

現在，在壓力和不確定時期對我們解決方案的需求超出了評級和研究範圍，您可以在一系列 MA 產品中看到這一點。在上個月銀行業壓力高峰期，我們基於雲的資產和負債管理解決方案使銀行能夠對其期限、利率和流動性風險進行建模和管理，其使用率上升了近 50%。隨著——當我們目睹前所未有的存款流動跨銀行流動時，我們的篩选和風險監控 KYC 解決方案的使用增長了近 30%。

We've also more than doubled the number of in-person customer sales meetings over the last year, and that's been supported by investments to expand the size of our sales team by almost 20% since the beginning of 2022, and you've heard us talk about that on these calls. And together, the increased usage and the sales engagement give us confidence in our full year low double-digit ARR growth outlook for MA.

在過去的一年裡，我們的面對面客戶銷售會議的數量也增加了一倍多，這得到了自 2022 年初以來將我們的銷售團隊規模擴大近 20% 的投資的支持，你已經聽說了我們在這些電話中談到了這一點。同時，使用量的增加和銷售參與度的提高讓我們對 MA 的全年低兩位數 ARR 增長前景充滿信心。

Now this past quarter, MA delivered 10% ARR growth, which as I mentioned, was consistent and strong across all lines of business. And I'll start with Data & Information. That includes Orbis, one of the world's largest databases on companies; plus our ratings and news feeds and 300 million ESG scores. That grew ARR at almost -- at around 9%.

上個季度，MA 實現了 10% 的 ARR 增長，正如我所提到的，這在所有業務領域都是一致且強勁的。我將從數據和信息開始。其中包括世界上最大的公司數據庫之一 Orbis；加上我們的評級和新聞提要以及 3 億個 ESG 分數。這幾乎使 ARR 增長了 9% 左右。

And in addition to the very strong stand-alone demand for private company data in Orbis, it's the integration of this data across MA's offerings that's helping to drive growth in other lines of business. And this includes the integration of Orbis company data into our CreditLens lending solution for banks and the integration of our ESG scores into insurance and banking underwriting and portfolio solutions.

除了對 Orbis 中私人公司數據的非常強烈的獨立需求外，正是跨 MA 產品的數據集成有助於推動其他業務線的增長。這包括將 Orbis 公司數據整合到我們的銀行 CreditLens 貸款解決方案中，以及將我們的 ESG 評分整合到保險和銀行承銷和投資組合解決方案中。

Now moving to Research & Insights, which includes our leading credit and economic research business and a growing suite of predictive analytics, also grew ARR by 9% this quarter. And we're seeing some strong and sustained demand for our economic data, research and models, particularly amidst the stress in and, I guess I would say, around the banking sector.

現在轉向 Research & Insights，其中包括我們領先的信貸和經濟研究業務以及不斷增長的預測分析套件，本季度 ARR 也增長了 9%。而且我們看到對我們的經濟數據、研究和模型的一些強勁和持續的需求，特別是在銀行業的壓力下，我想我會說，在銀行業周圍。

And this includes our new EDF-X platform, which combines our award-winning risk models with Orbis to analyze credit risk for any company in the world. And we recently completed the integration of EDF-X alongside CreditView into the moodys.com gateway, which provides direct access to a growing suite of Moody's products and enhances our customers' experience and enables further cross-selling opportunities.

這包括我們新的 EDF-X 平台，該平台將我們屢獲殊榮的風險模型與 Orbis 相結合，可以分析全球任何公司的信用風險。我們最近完成了將 EDF-X 與 CreditView 集成到 moodys.com 網關中，該網關提供了對不斷增長的穆迪產品套件的直接訪問，增強了我們的客戶體驗並實現了進一步的交叉銷售機會。

And finally, Decision Solutions, which includes our businesses serving KYC, insurance and banking workflows, grew ARR by 11%. And given this is our fastest-growing segment, I want to provide just a little bit more visibility into these offerings and what is driving growth. And these are really 3 great businesses because they support mission-critical workflows across financial institutions. And the virtuous cycle of data network effects and the high switching costs translate into industry-leading retention rates which are typically in the low to mid-90s.

最後，決策解決方案（包括我們為 KYC、保險和銀行工作流程提供服務的業務）使 ARR 增長了 11%。鑑於這是我們增長最快的細分市場，我想更深入地了解這些產品以及推動增長的因素。這些確實是 3 家偉大的企業，因為它們支持跨金融機構的關鍵任務工作流程。數據網絡效應的良性循環和高昂的轉換成本轉化為行業領先的保留率，通常在 90 年代中低水平。

And we've discussed our KYC business on earnings calls before. This business supports customer onboarding, perpetual KYC monitoring and sanction screening on customers' suppliers and other third parties. And the strong growth in this area has been driven by our ability to cover really all aspects of KYC and anti-money laundering activity, bringing together our vast data sets on companies and people, plus AI-enabled risk intelligence and cloud-based workflow orchestration that's delivered through our new PassFort Lifecycle platform.

我們之前在財報電話會議上討論過我們的 KYC 業務。該業務支持客戶入職、永久 KYC 監控以及對客戶供應商和其他第三方的製裁篩選。這一領域的強勁增長得益於我們能夠真正涵蓋 KYC 和反洗錢活動的所有方面，匯集了我們關於公司和人員的大量數據集，以及支持 AI 的風險情報和基於雲的工作流程編排這是通過我們新的 PassFort Lifecycle 平台提供的。

So moving on to insurance. The addition of RMS has now given us a considerable business serving underwriting, risk and capital management and regulatory reporting workflows at insurers and reinsurers. And like banks, insurance companies are moving towards greater automation and digitization as well as the integration of more third-party data and analytics to enhance their risk management processes. And the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform is really a cutting-edge cloud-based platform that supports a growing range of workflow and data and modeling capabilities for insurers.

所以繼續保險。 RMS 的加入現在為我們提供了可觀的業務，服務於保險公司和再保險公司的承保、風險和資本管理以及監管報告工作流程。和銀行一樣，保險公司正在朝著更高的自動化和數字化方向發展，並整合更多的第三方數據和分析，以加強他們的風險管理流程。 RMS Intelligent Risk Platform 確實是一個尖端的基於雲的平台，它支持保險公司不斷增長的工作流程、數據和建模功能。

And the latest product launch on this platform is our new Climate on Demand solution that integrates RMS's climate and physical risk models with our extensive Orbis and commercial property data sets to provide a sophisticated on-demand financial quantification of physical risk that enables a holistic view into a company's exposure to extreme weather events and climate change through its customers, suppliers and properties. And not only will this be useful for insurance underwriting, but we're seeing robust demand for this beyond the insurance sector, including with banks, corporates, governmental entities and professional services, as we expected when we announced the deal almost 2 years ago.

這個平台上推出的最新產品是我們新的 Climate on Demand 解決方案，它將 RMS 的氣候和物理風險模型與我們廣泛的 Orbis 和商業地產數據集相結合，以提供複雜的按需物理風險財務量化，從而能夠全面了解公司通過其客戶、供應商和財產暴露於極端天氣事件和氣候變化。這不僅對保險承保有用，而且我們看到保險業以外的部門對此有強勁需求，包括銀行、企業、政府實體和專業服務，正如我們在將近 2 年前宣布該交易時所預期的那樣。

And so third is our business serving banking workflows, which are quite similar actually to those served in insurance. They include lending; risk management, incorporating credit portfolio and asset liability management risk; and finance and planning, which includes things like impairment accounting and regulatory capital reporting.

因此，第三是我們服務於銀行工作流程的業務，這實際上與保險業提供的服務非常相似。它們包括貸款；風險管理，納入信貸組合和資產負債管理風險；財務和規劃，包括減值會計和監管資本報告等。

And our most significant recent product launch in this space, and one that is contributing to our double-digit ARR growth in banking, was CreditLens for Commercial Real Estate, which you've heard me talk about on prior calls. And that integrates our market forecasts, our commercial property data, with our SaaS lending solution, CreditLens. And it really significantly extends our ability to serve the commercial real estate lending market.

我們最近在這個領域推出的最重要的產品，以及為我們在銀行業實現兩位數 ARR 增長做出貢獻的產品，是 CreditLens for Commercial Real Estate，你已經聽我在之前的電話中談到過。這將我們的市場預測、我們的商業地產數據與我們的 SaaS 借貸解決方案 CreditLens 整合在一起。它確實極大地擴展了我們服務商業房地產貸款市場的能力。

And stepping back, what sets our offerings apart from many of our competitors is that it's not simply software, but instead, we deliver integration of our proprietary data and analytics through modern cloud-based architecture. And this is further enabled by the use of sophisticated machine learning and artificial intelligence across many of our solutions, including our automated financial spreading platform and our KYC AI review, which help customers be even more effective and more efficient. And it's that combination of data, analytics, cloud-based tech and innovation that powered us to the #1 ranking in Chartis RiskTech 100 back in November.

退而求其次，我們的產品與許多競爭對手的區別在於它不僅僅是軟件，而是我們通過基於雲的現代架構提供專有數據和分析的集成。在我們的許多解決方案中使用複雜的機器學習和人工智能進一步實現了這一點，包括我們的自動化金融傳播平台和我們的 KYC AI 審查，幫助客戶更加有效和高效。正是數據、分析、基於雲的技術和創新的結合使我們在 11 月的 Chartis RiskTech 100 中排名第一。

So let me talk just briefly about how this translates to a typical customer relationship. And in this case, it's a top 50 regional bank in the United States. And as I mentioned, our workflow solutions, combining data analytics and cloud-based software, help banks really, throughout their value chain, interconnecting what are often siloed use cases across departments, from lending to risk management to finance and planning. And it's common for us to start by serving one of those use cases and then to expand the relationship over time as the bank looks to connect its various functions, leveraging our interconnected data models and solutions.

因此，讓我簡要談談這如何轉化為典型的客戶關係。在這種情況下，它是美國排名前 50 位的地區性銀行。正如我所提到的，我們的工作流解決方案結合了數據分析和基於雲的軟件，真正幫助銀行在整個價值鏈中，將通常是跨部門的孤立用例互連起來，從貸款到風險管理再到財務和規劃。我們通常從服務其中一個用例開始，然後隨著銀行尋求連接其各種功能、利用我們互連的數據模型和解決方案，隨著時間的推移擴展關係。

So our customer with this particular -- excuse me. Our relationship with this particular customer started back in 2019, when they began to use our models. And that includes the EDF model that I just talked about, as foundational capabilities to really create a common language of risk in the institution.

所以我們的客戶有這個特別 - 對不起。我們與這個特定客戶的關係始於 2019 年，當時他們開始使用我們的模型。這包括我剛才談到的 EDF 模型，作為真正在機構中創建通用風險語言的基礎功能。

And in this case, they deployed our models to support a new internal risk rating program that enabled quantitative, unbiased and consistent internal practices for credit assessment across the bank. And over the next 2 years, we deepened that relationship by providing the bank with a workflow solution that leveraged these models and combined economic data and business analytics models with our ImpairmentStudio software to upgrade their current expected credit loss, or you've heard us say CECL on these calls, to upgrade those processes.

在這種情況下，他們部署了我們的模型來支持新的內部風險評級計劃，該計劃為整個銀行的信用評估提供了定量、公正和一致的內部做法。在接下來的 2 年裡，我們通過為銀行提供一個工作流解決方案來加深這種關係，該解決方案利用這些模型並將經濟數據和業務分析模型與我們的 ImpairmentStudio 軟件相結合，以升級他們當前的預期信用損失，或者你已經聽到我們說CECL 在這些調用上升級那些進程。

And in 2022, again, leveraging some of the same data and analytics capabilities, we broadened the relationship further to support their lending needs through a combination of our AI-enabled spreading tool and our CreditLens loan origination software that includes credit score. We did the same to support their forecasting and stress testing needs, bringing together another 5 Moody's products and drawing on some of the data and analytics the bank was using elsewhere.

在 2022 年，我們再次利用一些相同的數據和分析能力，通過結合我們支持 AI 的傳播工具和包括信用評分的 CreditLens 貸款發放軟件，進一步擴大了關係，以支持他們的貸款需求。我們採用同樣的方法來支持他們的預測和壓力測試需求，匯集了另外 5 種穆迪產品，並利用了該銀行在其他地方使用的一些數據和分析。

And this resulted in expanded licensing of several existing products, but also subscriptions for new products. And in just 3 years, we've -- 3, 4 years, we've grown the ARR from this relationship fivefold.

這導致了對幾個現有產品的擴展許可，以及對新產品的訂閱。在短短 3 年的時間裡，我們已經 - 3、4 年，我們已經將這種關係的 ARR 增長了五倍。

And as you can see on the far right, this ARR then shows up in different MA lines of businesses, with 65% Decision Solutions and 35% in Research & Insights, but really all for the same customer for a set of lending, risk and capital management and finance and planning use cases. And there's still further potential and we're in active discussions with this bank about supporting their KYC needs.

正如你在最右邊看到的那樣，這個 ARR 然後出現在不同的 MA 業務線中，65% 的決策解決方案和 35% 的研究與洞察，但實際上都是針對同一客戶的一組貸款、風險和資本管理以及財務和規劃用例。而且還有進一步的潛力，我們正在與這家銀行積極討論支持他們的 KYC 需求。

So this is really just one of really hundreds of instances of how we've expanded relationships with our banking customers in recent years and accelerated growth, by offering comprehensive solutions that leverage capabilities across all 3 MA lines of business and really more broadly across all of Moody's. And that is our integrated risk strategy at work. That is what makes our solutions so valuable and so sticky.

因此，這實際上只是我們近年來如何通過提供全面的解決方案來擴大與銀行客戶的關係並加速增長的數百個實例之一，這些解決方案利用所有 3 MA 業務線的能力，實際上更廣泛地跨越所有穆迪。這就是我們的綜合風險策略在起作用。這就是我們的解決方案如此有價值和粘性的原因。

So let me move to MIS for a moment. Issuance was stronger in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the fourth quarter of 2022. And while volatility and uncertainty constrained the structured and bank loan markets, we did see robust activity in the investment-grade sector. And in the first quarter, issuance represented almost 30% of our full year outlook, which is a pretty typical historical seasonality pattern. And as you can see, growth was higher for investment grade and lower for leveraged finance.

因此，讓我暫時轉到 MIS。與 2022 年第四季度相比，2023 年第一季度的發行量更為強勁。雖然波動性和不確定性限制了結構性和銀行貸款市場，但我們確實看到投資級部門的強勁活動。在第一季度，發行量占我們全年預期的近 30%，這是一個非常典型的歷史季節性模式。正如您所看到的，投資級別的增長較高，而槓桿融資的增長較低。

As we said on our last earnings call, we would expect markets to open up with higher-quality credits before those further down the credit rating spectrum, such as high-yield and bank loan issuers. And that is in fact what we saw in the first quarter. If markets continue to improve, we'd expect to see leveraged finance issuance pick up. And the degree to which that happens is going to be based on a number of factors, and that includes macroeconomic risks and policy actions, market sentiment and credit spreads and economic growth and private equity activity, among other things.

正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所說的那樣，我們預計市場將以更高質量的信貸開放，然後再進一步降低信用評級範圍，例如高收益和銀行貸款發行人。事實上，這就是我們在第一季度看到的情況。如果市場繼續改善，我們預計會看到槓桿融資的發行量增加。而這種情況發生的程度將取決於許多因素，其中包括宏觀經濟風險和政策行動、市場情緒和信用利差以及經濟增長和私募股權活動等。

So staying on MIS just for a moment. Over the course of the last several months, we've gotten a number of questions about MIS's growth drivers, especially over the longer term. So Mark and I thought it would be helpful to talk about how we think about the building blocks to MIS revenue growth over the long term. And while the short- to medium-term outlook can be impacted by cyclical factors, the long-term growth algorithm, as we like to think of it, for MIS revenue, we believe remains firmly intact.

所以暫時留在 MIS 上。在過去的幾個月裡，我們收到了很多關於 MIS 增長動力的問題，尤其是從長期來看。所以馬克和我認為討論我們如何看待 MIS 收入長期增長的基石會很有幫助。雖然短期和中期前景可能受到週期性因素的影響，但我們認為，對於 MIS 收入，長期增長算法仍然完好無損。

And first and foremost, debt issuance growth over the longer term is driven by global GDP growth as issuers invest and grow their businesses. And we expect global GDP growth in the 2% to 3% range over the long term, and that's in line with historical average over several decades.

首先，長期來看，隨著發行人投資和發展業務，全球 GDP 增長推動了債券發行量的增長。我們預計全球 GDP 長期增長率在 2% 至 3% 之間，這與幾十年來的歷史平均水平一致。

Second, the value proposition for ratings remains firmly intact, particularly for MIS ratings. And that supports an annual pricing opportunity consistent with the broader opportunity across all of Moody's in the 3% to 4% range.

其次，評級的價值主張仍然完好無損，尤其是 MIS 評級。這支持年度定價機會與穆迪在 3% 至 4% 範圍內的更廣泛機會一致。

And third, there are long-term tailwinds from the ongoing development of capital markets around the world. And this includes slow and steady levels of disintermediation in developed markets like Europe, as well as higher rates of growth in smaller capital markets in developing countries.

第三，全球資本市場的持續發展帶來了長期的順風。這包括歐洲等發達市場緩慢而穩定的脫媒水平，以及發展中國家較小資本市場的較高增長率。

And together, this gives a sense for what we believe is the long-term growth profile of this business. While I acknowledge, over shorter time horizons, the growth rate may be above, below or within this band, depending on the nature of the headwinds and tailwinds that we're showing at the bottom of the page. So I hope that gives you a sense of how we're thinking about growth and how that may triangulate with our medium-term outlook.

總之，這讓我們了解了我們認為該業務的長期增長情況。雖然我承認，在較短的時間範圍內，增長率可能會高於、低於或在該範圍內，這取決於我們在頁面底部顯示的逆風和順風的性質。所以我希望這能讓你了解我們是如何考慮增長的，以及它如何與我們的中期前景進行三角測量。

And as we look toward the rest of the year, we're confident in the prospects for our business. That's supported by strong demand for our solutions and our expertise and a robust product development pipeline. So we're reaffirming the majority of our guidance with select updates to expenses as well as our diluted and adjusted diluted EPS metrics. GAAP diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS are now expected to be between $8.45 and $8.95, and $9.50 and $10, respectively.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們對業務前景充滿信心。對我們的解決方案和我們的專業知識以及強大的產品開發管道的強烈需求支持了這一點。因此，我們通過對費用的選擇更新以及我們稀釋和調整後的稀釋 EPS 指標來重申我們的大部分指導。 GAAP 稀釋每股收益和調整後稀釋每股收益現在預計分別在 8.45 美元和 8.95 美元之間，以及 9.50 美元和 10 美元之間。

So to close, I want to acknowledge that our growth and resilience as a firm rests on the shoulders of our people across the company, and I want to thank them for their continued commitment and efforts and dedication to serving our customers, to supporting each other and to delivering for our shareholders.

最後，我要承認，作為一家公司，我們的成長和韌性取決於全公司員工的肩上，我要感謝他們一直以來的承諾和努力，以及為我們的客戶服務、相互支持的奉獻精神並為我們的股東提供服務。

So this concludes my prepared remarks, and Mark and I would be happy to take your questions. Over to you, operator.

我準備好的發言到此結束，馬克和我很樂意回答你的問題。交給你了，接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Owen Lau 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

So last quarter, Mark, you provided the seasonality of the P&L in detail. We appreciate your help and it was very helpful. Could you please do the same and give us an update this quarter?

所以上個季度，馬克，你詳細提供了損益表的季節性。感謝您的幫助，這非常有幫助。您能否也這樣做並在本季度向我們提供更新？

Owen, good afternoon. And very happy to do that. Our central case assumption is that the near-term capital market activity is going to continue to be impacted by some of the recent stresses we've seen in the banking sector, as well as sort of those ongoing inflationary and recessionary concerns, before improving as we progress into the latter half of the year.

歐文，下午好。很高興這樣做。我們的中心案例假設是，近期資本市場活動將繼續受到我們在銀行業看到的一些近期壓力以及持續的通脹和衰退擔憂的影響，然後才會有所改善我們進入下半年。

While we have to acknowledge that there's been strong sequential improvement in issuance volumes from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, we remain cautiously optimistic and are thus maintaining our full year MIS revenue guidance of low to mid-single-digit percent growth.

雖然我們必須承認，從第四季度到第一季度，發行量連續出現強勁改善，但我們仍持謹慎樂觀態度，因此維持我們全年 MIS 收入指引的低至中個位數百分比增長。

Based on the strong first quarter investment grade and infrequent financial institution issue activity, we have slightly derisked our year-to-go forecast. We now expect first half MIS revenue to decline in the mid- to high single-digit percent range and second half MIS revenue growth in the mid- to high teens percent range. And that's, again, based on our expectation for market volatility to partially abate in the latter half of 2023.

基於強勁的第一季度投資等級和不頻繁的金融機構發行活動，我們略微降低了對全年的預測。我們現在預計上半年 MIS 收入將在中高個位數百分比範圍內下降，下半年 MIS 收入將在中高百分比範圍內增長。這再次基於我們對市場波動將在 2023 年下半年部分減弱的預期。

It's also worth noting that this outlook is now more in line with the historical seasonality, where the proportion of transaction revenue tends to be greater in the first half versus the second half of the year.

還值得注意的是，這一前景現在更符合歷史季節性，上半年交易收入的比例往往高於下半年。

We're also pleased to reaffirm our expectation for full year 2023 MA revenue to increase by approximately 10%. It's too early to assess if there are any near-term headwinds related to the disruption resulting from, or in the banking sector. And as you heard from Rob, we are experiencing increased product utilization, customer engagement of our risk solutions during this period of financial market uncertainty.

我們也很高興重申我們對 2023 年全年 MA 收入增長約 10% 的預期。現在評估是否存在與銀行業造成的或在銀行業中的破壞相關的短期不利因素還為時過早。正如您從 Rob 那裡聽到的那樣，在這段金融市場不確定的時期，我們的產品利用率和客戶對我們風險解決方案的參與度都在提高。

And given that MA revenue is highly recurring, approximately 94%, we still expect absolute dollar MA revenue to progressively increase over the course of the year, with second half revenue growth anticipated to be slightly stronger vis-à-vis the first half. That means we're forecasting MA's second quarter adjusted operating margin to be flattish to our actual Q1 results before improving in the second half of the year and as we fully realize the benefits of our restructuring program and additional cost-saving initiatives.

鑑於 MA 收入的經常性很高，約為 94%，我們仍然預計絕對美元 MA 收入將在今年逐步增加，預計下半年收入增長將略高於上半年。這意味著我們預測 MA 第二季度調整後的營業利潤率將與我們第一季度的實際結果持平，然後在下半年有所改善，因為我們充分意識到重組計劃和額外成本節約舉措的好處。

On total Moody's operating expenses, the guide here is for an increase in the lower end of the mid-single-digit percent range. It's revised just slightly upwards on the expanded restructuring-related charges as well as our expectation for sort of a modest FX headwind.

關於穆迪的總運營費用，這裡的指南是增加中個位數百分比範圍的下限。由於擴大的重組相關費用以及我們對某種程度的外匯逆風的預期，它僅略微上調。

And then finally, we don't anticipate the future resolution of uncertain tax positions to sort of reoccur to the same extent in future quarters.

最後，我們預計未來幾個季度不確定稅收狀況的解決方案不會以同樣的程度再次出現。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

你的下一個問題來自安德魯尼古拉斯和威廉布萊爾的台詞。

I wanted to ask a little bit more specifically on the impact from SVB and kind of the broader banking sector turmoil on the sales pipeline in MA.

我想更具體地問一下 SVB 的影響以及更廣泛的銀行業動盪對馬薩諸塞州銷售渠道的影響。

I think, Mark, you just said that it was a little bit too early to tell. But is there are any color you could provide on anything outside of usage increases? It seems like that would bring in additional sales opportunities, but also understanding that some of these end markets or these clients would have other things that they're focused on spending money on in the near term. Any additional color on how you're thinking about that would be great.

我想，馬克，你剛才說現在下結論還為時過早。但是除了使用量增加之外，您是否可以提供任何顏色？這似乎會帶來額外的銷售機會，但也明白其中一些終端市場或這些客戶在短期內會有其他他們專注於花錢的東西。關於您的想法的任何其他顏色都會很棒。

Andrew, it's Rob. I'm actually going to take a crack at this. I'm going to kind of zoom out just for a moment because we were kind of thinking about what went on in March with the banking sector across kind of 3 dimensions.

安德魯，是羅布。我實際上要解決這個問題。我將稍微縮小一下，因為我們正在考慮 3 月份銀行業在 3 個維度上發生的事情。

And the first, it was a very active period for our rating teams, as you'd imagine. Just to give you a sense, we rate about 800 banks globally, and that includes about 65 regional banks in the United States. So there was a pretty intense period of credit work and market engagement, as you'd expect, and you saw kind of the uptick in usage for our research.

首先，正如您想像的那樣，對於我們的評級團隊來說，這是一個非常活躍的時期。為了讓您有所了解，我們對全球約 800 家銀行進行了評級，其中包括美國約 65 家地區性銀行。因此，正如您所期望的那樣，有一段非常緊張的信貸工作和市場參與時期，並且您看到我們研究的使用率有所上升。

We also then thought about what could that mean in regards to MIS issuance. And January and February were stronger issuance months than March. We did see a bit of a slowdown in the markets for sure in the month of March, and we tried to think about how do we extrapolate that out for the balance of the year. Ultimately, we decided not to change the issuance outlook for the year.

然後我們還考慮了這對 MIS 發行意味著什麼。 1 月和 2 月的發行量高於 3 月。在 3 月份，我們確實看到市場有點放緩，我們試圖考慮如何推斷出今年餘下時間的情況。最終，我們決定不改變今年的發行前景。

And then third, kind of zooming in on your question around MA. Again, just to give you a sense, we've got relationships with over 2,500 banks or so globally. And I would say we have not yet seen any meaningful slowdown in sales cycles. But I think we're mindful of this, right? As you'd expect, banks are evaluating what kinds of investments they want to make and when they want to make them.

然後第三，有點放大你關於 MA 的問題。同樣，為了讓您了解一下，我們與全球大約 2,500 多家銀行建立了關係。我想說我們還沒有看到銷售週期有任何有意義的放緩。但我認為我們注意到了這一點，對吧？如您所料，銀行正在評估他們希望進行何種投資以及何時進行這些投資。

We're also keeping an eye on bank consolidation. And I've gotten questions before about the impact in the Financial Crisis, and that was one of the things that we cited, was it's consolidation of banks that can lead to some attrition events for us or some downgrades. And so that's something we are keeping an eye on.

我們也在關注銀行整合。我之前已經收到關於金融危機影響的問題，這是我們引用的事情之一，是銀行的整合可能導致我們發生一些減員事件或一些降級。所以這是我們一直關注的事情。

Obviously, we had a little bit of idiosyncratic attrition here with a few of these bank failures. But I think over the -- kind of over the medium term, our view is that there's going to be heightened demand for bank risk management. There will be new regulation that is going to stimulate further demands for our products and services.

顯然，由於其中一些銀行倒閉，我們在這裡有一些特殊的流失。但我認為，從中期來看，我們認為對銀行風險管理的需求將會增加。將會有新的法規來刺激對我們的產品和服務的進一步需求。

So while we're keeping an eye on things at the moment, I would say over the medium term, we feel like this will actually be a supportive factor for growth.

因此，雖然我們目前正在關注事情，但我想說，從中期來看，我們認為這實際上將成為增長的支持因素。

Your next question will come from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Congratulations on the results. I don't know if this is for Mark, but just can we go back to the margins? I mean, just a ton of operating leverage. And maybe -- I know some of it's the restructuring. But maybe just give a sense of what's driving the outcome on the leverage over the course of the year. Maybe just a little bit deeper on Moody's and kind of the MA and MIS, if you could, Mark.

祝賀結果。我不知道這是否適合馬克，但我們可以回到邊緣嗎？我的意思是，只是大量的經營槓桿。也許——我知道其中一些是重組。但也許只是了解是什麼推動了這一年中槓桿的結果。如果可以的話，馬克，也許對穆迪和 MA 和 MIS 更深入一點。

Kevin, I'll talk at the Moody's level for margin, and I'll give some insight into how the full year is progressing, and certainly happy to take other questions on MA margin later on in the call.

凱文，我將在穆迪級別談論保證金，我將深入了解全年的進展情況，當然很樂意在稍後的電話會議中回答有關 MA 保證金的其他問題。

So as a management team, we're committed to improving Moody's margin and accelerating the top line growth here. Our guidance for the full year is for an adjusted operating margin in the range of 44% to 45%. So that implies around 200 basis points of margin expansion at the midpoint. And that reflects our view that the cyclical market disruption we experienced last year as well as some of the concerns in the banking sector, they're likely to abate over the coming months.

因此，作為一個管理團隊，我們致力於提高穆迪的利潤率並加速這裡的收入增長。我們對全年的指導是調整後的營業利潤率在 44% 至 45% 之間。因此，這意味著中點利潤率擴張約 200 個基點。這反映了我們的觀點，即我們去年經歷的周期性市場混亂以及銀行業的一些擔憂，在未來幾個月內可能會減弱。

And in addition, over the past several months, to the point you made, we have taken prudent yet aggressive actions firm-wide to streamline our expense base. And we've done that while concurrently ensuring sufficient investment and resources to maintain the high ratings quality within MIS as well as to support innovation and organic investment in MA as we execute on our strategic road maps.

此外，在過去的幾個月裡，正如你所說的那樣，我們在全公司範圍內採取了謹慎而積極的行動來精簡我們的費用基礎。我們已經做到了這一點，同時確保有足夠的投資和資源來維持 MIS 內的高評級質量，並在我們執行戰略路線圖時支持 MA 的創新和有機投資。

So if I translated that into numbers using our actual Q1 results as a baseline, for the full year 2023, you could expect approximately 100 to 150 basis points related to increased operating leverage from both MA and MIS, and that's net of ongoing hiring activities and strategic investments; approximately 350 to 400 basis points related to the expense benefits from some of those actions we've taken to lower and control costs associated with either real estate rationalization, reduction in staff or other efficiency initiatives; and then with the partial offset there of approximately 300 basis points from incremental costs associated with the annual salary and promotional increases as well as a reset of our incentive compensation.

因此，如果我使用我們第一季度的實際結果作為基準將其轉化為數字，那麼對於 2023 年全年，您可以預期與 MA 和 MIS 的運營槓桿增加相關的大約 100 到 150 個基點，並且不包括正在進行的招聘活動和戰略投資；大約 350 到 400 個基點與我們為降低和控制與房地產合理化、裁員或其他效率舉措相關的成本而採取的一些行動的費用收益有關；然後從與年薪和促銷增加相關的增量成本中部分抵消了大約 300 個基點，以及我們的激勵薪酬的重置。

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Toni Kaplan。

Wanted to ask the MA ARR question a little bit differently. Wanted to understand the sort of sustainability of double-digit ARR growth, how you see that playing out.

想以不同的方式問 MA ARR 問題。想了解兩位數 ARR 增長的可持續性，您如何看待這種情況。

Great usage numbers that you gave, that was really helpful. Is there a component of price that is linked to usage? Or is it more that in your negotiations on price, you sort of point to usage and try to drive price that way?

你給出的很好的使用數字，這真的很有幫助。是否有與使用相關聯的價格組成部分？或者更多的是在您的價格談判中，您有點指向使用並試圖以這種方式推動價格？

And then also just how you see the sustainability of the growth continuing? Just if you do see budget tightening or cutting back, how has that sort of been in the past during challenging times for your customers?

然後，您如何看待持續增長的可持續性？如果您確實看到預算緊縮或削減，那麼在過去對您的客戶來說充滿挑戰的時期是怎樣的情況呢？

Toni, it's Rob. I'll take that one. So 2 parts to it, sustainability and then how do we -- how does that also kind of translate and supported by price. Let me start with just some key secular trends that are driving growth across our business. And these are what we call kind of selling themes and how we engage with our customers.

托尼，是羅布。我會拿那個。所以它分為兩部分，可持續性，然後是我們如何——這也如何轉化並得到價格的支持。讓我從推動我們業務增長的一些主要長期趨勢開始。這些就是我們所說的銷售主題以及我們與客戶互動的方式。

So the first of those -- and they're really 4. The first of them is digital transformation. And many, many, many of our customers are going through a digital transformation in all parts of their institution. And so we play an important role in helping institutions do that. As you've heard me say before, you heard me say on this call, it's about becoming more effective and more efficient.

所以其中的第一個 - 他們真的是 4 個。第一個是數字化轉型。我們的許多、許多、許多客戶正在其機構的各個部分進行數字化轉型。因此，我們在幫助機構做到這一點方面發揮著重要作用。正如你之前聽我說過的那樣，你在這次電話會議上也聽過我說過，這是為了變得更有效率。

The second is around really kind of a company 360-degree view of risk. And gosh, I've had a lot of these discussions with our customers recently, where they say, "We're just trying to get a better understanding of the various dimensions of any given counterparty that we're doing business with." Whether it's a customer, a supplier, someone they're making a loan to, someone they're investing in. And so we've got a great opportunity to help them with that company 360-degree view of risk.

第二個是真正圍繞公司 360 度風險視圖。天哪，我最近與我們的客戶進行了很多這樣的討論，他們說，“我們只是想更好地了解與我們有業務往來的任何給定交易對手的各個方面。”無論是客戶、供應商、貸款對像還是投資對象。因此我們有很好的機會幫助他們了解公司的 360 度風險視圖。

Third is around regulation. There are -- when you serve, and we -- obviously, financial services is a big part of the customers that we serve, there are constantly new rules and regulations that are being imposed on the industry. They're evolving in many different ways. And our customers are looking to us to help them with regulatory compliance.

三是圍繞監管。有 - 當你服務時，我們 - 顯然，金融服務是我們服務的客戶的很大一部分，不斷有新的規則和法規強加給該行業。它們以許多不同的方式發展。我們的客戶希望我們幫助他們遵守法規。

And a lot of our solutions do that. And the fourth is we're having more and more conversations around how to think about integrating climate and ESG into various different kinds of workflows. And I would say in climate in particular, where there's a real need and desire to really understand the financial quantification of exposure to weather and climate change, and you heard me mention that on the call.

我們的許多解決方案都可以做到這一點。第四，我們正在就如何考慮將氣候和 ESG 整合到各種不同類型的工作流程中進行越來越多的對話。我要特別說的是在氣候方面，真正需要並希望真正了解天氣和氣候變化風險的財務量化，你聽到我在電話中提到了這一點。

So the great thing is we're having these conversations with our customers and it's bring -- and you heard me give that example of that bank in my opening remarks. We're bringing together products and solutions that help our customers address a range of these kinds of challenges. So we feel good about our positioning and the medium-term growth drivers that are underpinned by this.

所以最棒的是我們正在與我們的客戶進行這些對話，它帶來了——你聽到我在開場白中舉了那個銀行的例子。我們正在整合產品和解決方案，幫助我們的客戶應對一系列此類挑戰。因此，我們對我們的定位和由此支撐的中期增長動力感到滿意。

Now as it relates specifically to pricing. We talk about, in MA, an approach to value-based pricing. So we want our customers to derive a lot of value out of our products. We have customer success teams that support the usage and utility that our customers get out of those solutions. That in turn both translates into supporting ongoing pricing increases as well as upgrades across the institution. That is generally how we think about it.

現在，因為它特別涉及到定價。我們在 MA 中討論了一種基於價值的定價方法。所以我們希望我們的客戶從我們的產品中獲得很多價值。我們有客戶成功團隊來支持我們的客戶從這些解決方案中獲得的使用和效用。這反過來又轉化為支持持續的價格上漲以及整個機構的升級。這通常是我們的想法。

And Toni, this may have been implicit in the question you were asking, but part of the reason we introduced ARR in the first quarter of last year is that it's a fabulous leading indicator of performance because by design, it provides that 12-month forward-looking view into our growth trajectory and thus also progress towards achieving our medium-term targets.

Toni，這可能隱含在你問的問題中，但我們在去年第一季度推出 ARR 的部分原因是它是一個極好的績效領先指標，因為根據設計，它提供了 12 個月的未來- 審視我們的增長軌跡，從而在實現我們的中期目標方面取得進展。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Alex Kramm。

Just wanted to come back to the regional bank discussion from earlier. I heard your comments on MA. I probably agree that it could be an opportunity in the future. But would also ask that same question on MIS. Maybe it's not as simple of an answer, but if regional banks are having more stress, more regulations to them -- coming to them, just wondering if you think there could be an opportunity actually that some of that bank lending actually goes into the capital markets like we've seen over many decades, and you cited it for Europe, but maybe even in the U.S.

只想回到之前的區域銀行討論。我聽到了你對 MA 的評論。我可能同意這可能是未來的一個機會。但也會在 MIS 上問同樣的問題。也許這不是一個簡單的答案，但如果區域性銀行面臨更大的壓力，對他們有更多的監管——來找他們，只是想知道你是否認為實際上有機會讓一些銀行貸款真正進入資本就像我們幾十年來看到的市場，你引用了歐洲，但甚至可能在美國

Now I understand their lending is a little bit more smaller ticket sizes, right, mid-market, but wondering if there could be some opportunities there. And then also maybe even some opportunities in structured as some of these banks are trying to figure out how to deal with these new regulations coming down the pipe potentially. So any early looks would be great.

現在我知道他們的貸款規模要小一些，對，中端市場，但想知道那裡是否有一些機會。然後甚至可能還有一些結構化的機會，因為其中一些銀行正試圖弄清楚如何應對這些可能即將出台的新法規。所以任何早期的造型都會很棒。

Alex, it's Rob. I think that's a reasonable thesis and it's probably too early to tell. Like I said, we haven't adjusted the issuance outlook at this time either up or down in regards to that. But that's certainly one of the things that we're considering, is as banks -- the opportunity to turn to the capital markets as a funding source, particularly in the U.S. but also in Europe.

亞歷克斯，是羅伯。我認為這是一個合理的論點，現在下結論可能還為時過早。就像我說的，我們目前還沒有就此上調或下調發行前景。但這肯定是我們正在考慮的事情之一，作為銀行——轉向資本市場作為資金來源的機會，特別是在美國和歐洲。

And so that may -- we may actually see an uptick in issuance. We may also -- that may also drive further disintermediation, right, as -- not only as banks are turning to capital markets for funding sources, but as the borrowers themselves are turning to capital markets. So that's something I think we're going to watch, Alex, but probably a little too early to call.

所以這可能 - 我們實際上可能會看到發行量增加。我們也可能——這也可能推動進一步的非中介化，因為——不僅因為銀行正在轉向資本市場尋求資金來源，而且借款人自己也在轉向資本市場。所以這就是我認為我們要關注的事情，亞歷克斯，但可能還為時過早。

Fair enough. We'll watch it.

很公平。我們會看的。

Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ashish Sabadra。

I just wanted to focus more on the banking vertical than in MA. I was wondering if it's possible to quantify how big your exposure is, and particularly on the regional banking side. And then obviously, you talked about the increased focus on risk management being positive over the midterm. But I was just wondering, how are your conversations or the sales conversations trending with those banks? Are we seeing increased focus of risk management even in the near term?

我只是想更多地關注銀行業垂直領域而不是 MA。我想知道是否有可能量化您的風險敞口有多大，尤其是在區域銀行方面。然後很明顯，你談到了在中期對風險管理的更多關注是積極的。但我只是想知道，您與這些銀行的談話或銷售談話的趨勢如何？即使在短期內，我們是否會看到風險管理的重點增加？

Ashish, this is Mark here. In terms of the overall quantification of the banking business, last year for banking-related products that we sold were around $400 million. That would have been around 14% of the MA. You could anticipate continuing to see ongoing growth of products that we sell to banks, which extend per the comments you heard from Rob this morning, not just banking-related products themselves.

Ashish，我是 Mark。就銀行業務的整體量化而言，去年我們銷售的銀行相關產品約為4億美元。那將是 MA 的 14% 左右。你可以預期繼續看到我們向銀行銷售的產品持續增長，根據你今天早上從 Rob 那裡聽到的評論，這不僅僅是與銀行相關的產品本身。

And the focus that we have, and especially in the banking space, really extends across those 3 primary segments. Sort of the origination of that credit; the ability for asset liability management; and then finally, to support finance and risk-related reporting. And the idea that banks themselves can use that data and analytics not just within individual departments within those disciplines, but across the firm really creates very high switching costs and allows our data to be embedded ultimately into the network that the banks have.

我們所關注的重點，尤其是在銀行領域，確實延伸到了這三個主要領域。該信用的來源；資產負債管理能力；最後，支持財務和風險相關報告。銀行本身不僅可以在這些學科的各個部門內使用這些數據和分析，而且可以在整個公司內使用這些數據和分析的想法確實產生了非常高的轉換成本，並允許我們的數據最終嵌入到銀行擁有的網絡中。

Yes. And maybe I'll just add to that. Kind of in the immediate term, obviously, we highlighted the increased usage that we saw in our products, but we were literally doing kind of daily stand-ups where we were in touch with our banking customers and prospective customers around a few different themes.

是的。也許我會補充一點。顯然，在短期內，我們強調了我們在產品中看到的使用量增加，但我們實際上是在做某種日常站立，我們圍繞幾個不同的主題與我們的銀行客戶和潛在客戶保持聯繫。

And one, as you can imagine, our banking customers were in a period, and still are, of enhanced kind of credit and counterparty monitoring. And there, we've got obviously a number of tools that can help. We have a set of asset liability management solutions.

還有一個，正如您可以想像的那樣，我們的銀行客戶過去和現在都處於增強的信用和交易對手監控中。在那裡，我們顯然有許多可以提供幫助的工具。我們有一套資產負債管理解決方案。

And I noted the significant increase in usage by our existing customers, but that also gave us an opportunity to engage in a number of new discussions.

我注意到我們現有客戶的使用量顯著增加，但這也讓我們有機會參與一些新的討論。

And then third is around KYC. And while it's hard for banks to deploy a new KYC solution kind of in the span of a week, just given what was going on, we've seen an ability to have an increased conversation around KYC at a broader set of financial institutions.

然後第三是圍繞 KYC。雖然銀行很難在一周內部署新的 KYC 解決方案，但考慮到正在發生的事情，我們已經看到有能力在更廣泛的金融機構中圍繞 KYC 進行更多的對話。

So in general, there are some immediate-term opportunities and we see some medium-term opportunities.

所以總的來說，有一些短期機會，我們看到一些中期機會。

That's great. Congrats on solid results.

那太棒了。祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。

Your next question comes from the line of George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自 George Tong 與高盛的合作。

It appears MIS outperformed your expectations in the first quarter, but your full year guide was reiterated. How much does this reflect conservatism versus a more moderate issuance outlook for the remainder of the year, perhaps to reflect aftershocks from the regional banking crisis at the end of the first quarter? Could you talk about some of the issuance trends you're seeing real-time?

MIS 在第一季度的表現似乎超出了您的預期，但重申了您的全年指南。這在多大程度上反映了今年剩餘時間的保守主義與更為溫和的發行前景，或許是為了反映第一季度末區域銀行業危機的餘震？你能談談你實時看到的一些發行趨勢嗎？

Yes, George, it's Rob. I'll start. I mentioned and we showed in our webcast deck that the first quarter issuance through March was roughly 29% of our full year outlook. And I mentioned also, that's pretty consistent with the average that we've seen over roughly a 10-year period, excluding the pandemic and last year.

是的，喬治，是羅伯。我會開始。我提到過，我們在網絡直播中展示了截至 3 月的第一季度發行量約為我們全年預期的 29%。我還提到，這與我們在大約 10 年期間看到的平均值非常一致，不包括大流行病和去年。

Our expectations going into this year, we're probably somewhere closer to 25%. So by not taking up our issuance outlook, I think, George, you could kind of think of that as derisking our issuance outlook for the rest of the year a bit. But that feels reasonable, given just the seasonality patterns that I just talked about.

我們對今年的預期可能接近 25%。因此，喬治，我認為，不考慮我們的發行前景，你可以認為這是在降低我們今年剩餘時間的發行前景的風險。但考慮到我剛才談到的季節性模式，這感覺是合理的。

And I would also say, George, there are a couple pretty straightforward reasons that we didn't take up or adjust, let's say, the issuance guidance. One, yes, there were some green shoots, but I think we just decided it's just too early for us to change our full year issuance outlook. January and February were good months, March was choppy. And second, we've got plenty of headline risk with 3 quarters to go. We saw that in March with the banking sector. We still got the debt ceiling to navigate. So we just thought it was -- it's too early to make a change.

我還要說，喬治，有幾個非常簡單的原因我們沒有接受或調整，比方說，發行指南。第一，是的，有一些萌芽，但我認為我們只是認為現在改變全年發行前景還為時過早。一月和二月是好月份，三月是波濤洶湧的。其次，還有 3 個季度要走，我們有很多頭條新聞風險。我們在 3 月份的銀行業中看到了這一點。我們仍有債務上限需要解決。所以我們只是認為 - 現在做出改變還為時過早。

And I guess just kind of then thinking about what are we seeing at the moment. I'd say markets are pretty constructive. We're going to see how corporate earnings all shake out and what the appetite is going to be for M&A. The market feels more optimistic in late April than it did in March. M&A has been sporadic. You've seen it more in defensive sectors. But it does feel like there's some pent-up demand. We're hearing bankers talk about pipelines building for the second half of the year into 2024.

我想只是在想我們現在看到的是什麼。我會說市場非常有建設性。我們將看到企業盈利如何變化，以及併購的意願如何。與 3 月份相比，4 月下旬的市場感覺更加樂觀。併購一直是零星的。你在防禦領域看到了更多。但確實感覺有一些被壓抑的需求。我們聽到銀行家談論下半年到 2024 年的管道建設。

And look, issuance -- investment-grade issuance, while it started off quite strong, it did slow down in mid-March, given what was going on with the banks. And so we'll see in early May. We've got, I think, a fair bit of economic data that's going to come out. And if that goes well, we may see a pickup in issuance from corporates.

看，發行——投資級發行，雖然開始時相當強勁，但考慮到銀行的情況，它在 3 月中旬確實放緩了。所以我們將在五月初看到。我認為，我們已經獲得了相當多的經濟數據。如果進展順利，我們可能會看到企業發行量增加。

And the last thing I would say, George, is the banks have -- there have been windows that have allowed the banks to start clearing some of the big LBO backlog that they had sitting on their balance sheet. And so that's important to kind of unsticking those markets. So again, constructive tone, but we'll see.

喬治，我最後要說的是，銀行已經有了——已經有窗口允許銀行開始清理他們資產負債表上的一些大型槓桿收購積壓。因此，這對於脫離這些市場很重要。再次，建設性的語氣，但我們會看到。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Jeff Silber。

Wanted to focus a little bit more about some of the uncertainty going on in the banking sector, but maybe take it to the next level. I know there's a lot of concern about the impact on the commercial real estate sector. I know you've got exposure there in both lines of your businesses. Can we just talk about what's going on there?

想要更多地關注銀行業正在發生的一些不確定性，但也許將其提升到一個新的水平。我知道人們很擔心對商業房地產行業的影響。我知道你在你的兩個業務領域都有接觸。我們能談談那裡發生了什麼嗎？

Yes. Let me tackle this. Let me tackle this maybe 2 ways: One, just kind of how we're thinking about the U.S. banking system; and then second, I think there's a question about kind of what's going on with bank lending and just give you maybe a little bit of insight into that.

是的。讓我來解決這個問題。讓我用兩種方式來解決這個問題：一種，就是我們對美國銀行體系的看法；其次，我認為有一個關於銀行貸款的問題，可能只是讓你對此有一些了解。

But on the first, MIS put some great research out on this and has been, so I would steer you to that. But a few things that our teams are focused on. They're focused on ALM risks. They're focused on stability of deposit funding; profitability pressures; and as you mentioned, Jeff, commercial real estate exposure.

但首先，MIS 對此進行了一些很好的研究，並且一直如此，所以我會引導你去做。但是我們的團隊專注於一些事情。他們專注於 ALM 風險。他們專注於存款資金的穩定性；盈利壓力；正如你提到的，傑夫，商業房地產風險敞口。

And when we think about what's going on with lending standards, I think it's fair to assume that bank lending standards are tightening. I think that was already going on to some extent before March. The banks are going to be the most cautious around property, land, development loans and commercial real estate more broadly. In particular, I think the office sector.

當我們考慮貸款標準的情況時，我認為可以公平地假設銀行貸款標準正在收緊。我認為這在三月之前已經在某種程度上發生了。銀行將對更廣泛的房地產、土地、開發貸款和商業房地產持最謹慎的態度。特別是，我認為辦公部門。

Just to put it in perspective, today, U.S. banks hold about half of the U.S. commercial real estate debt outstanding. And I think smaller banks are more concentrated in commercial real estate as a percent of total capital than the larger banks. So I think you are going to see some caution there, for sure.

客觀地說，今天，美國銀行持有大約一半的美國未償商業房地產債務。而且我認為小型銀行比大型銀行更集中於商業房地產佔總資本的百分比。所以我認為你肯定會在那裡看到一些警告。

In terms of corporate credit, I would expect the tightening to be felt at the smaller end of businesses. You're seeing that with some of the survey data that's come out in March. When you think about commercial loans, credit cards, auto and personal loans, those will probably be less impacted just because a lot of that lending is done outside the banking system. And same with mortgage lending. While it's impacted by interest rates, rising rates, I think it will be less impacted by what's going on with bank lending standards, given that a lot of it's been backstopped.

在企業信貸方面，我預計規模較小的企業會感受到緊縮。您會在 3 月份發布的一些調查數據中看到這一點。當你考慮商業貸款、信用卡、汽車和個人貸款時，這些貸款可能會受到較小的影響，因為很多貸款是在銀行系統之外進行的。與抵押貸款相同。雖然它受到利率、利率上升的影響，但我認為它受到銀行貸款標準變化的影響較小，因為其中很多都得到了支持。

So you got a sense of our exposure to banks overall. We have a business serving commercial real estate. And I will say there's a lot of interest from banks to really get high-quality data and analytics and insights to help them really understand what they need to do around that asset class.

所以你了解了我們對銀行的總體敞口。我們有一項服務於商業房地產的業務。我要說的是，銀行對真正獲得高質量的數據、分析和見解有很大的興趣，以幫助他們真正了解他們需要圍繞該資產類別做什麼。

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Craig Huber 與 Huber Research Partners 的合作。

Can you please touch on your outlook for bank loans versus high yield here for the remainder of the year? What's embedded in your outlook for debt issuance?

您能否談談今年餘下時間您對銀行貸款與高收益的展望？您對發債的前景有何看法？

I do a -- want to ask you, your incentive compensation numbers for the quarter and also for all 4 quarters for last year. What was that, please?

我想問你，你本季度以及去年所有 4 個季度的激勵薪酬數字。請問那是什麼？

Craig. Yes, so we haven't changed any of the outlook. So for leveraged finance, we're looking at high yield up 25% and leveraged loans still remaining roughly flat. And I gave you a little bit of color on kind of what we're seeing in the market. Hopefully, that gives you some sense.

克雷格。是的，所以我們沒有改變任何前景。因此，對於槓桿融資，我們期待高收益率上升 25%，而槓桿貸款仍大致持平。我給了你一些關於我們在市場上看到的東西的顏色。希望這能給你一些意義。

And in the first quarter of 2023, our incentive comp was $89 million compared to $76 million in the prior year period. Also just know, Craig, that we're now including commissions as part of our incentive compensation figures that we provide as sales-based commissions have actually grown alongside revenues relative to historical levels.

在 2023 年第一季度，我們的激勵薪酬為 8900 萬美元，而去年同期為 7600 萬美元。還知道，克雷格，我們現在將佣金作為我們提供的激勵薪酬數據的一部分，因為基於銷售的佣金實際上已經與相對於歷史水平的收入一起增長。

So put it in context, for the full year of 2023, we expect incentive compensation to be between $340 million and $360 million or approximately $85 million to $90 million per quarter for the remainder of the year. And that is 15% higher at the midpoint than the total incentive compensation we accrued for in the comparable full year period in 2022. And that's simply a result of resetting our incentive comp baseline for the year based on annual financial targets.

因此，就 2023 年全年而言，我們預計今年剩餘時間的激勵薪酬將在 3.4 億美元至 3.6 億美元之間，或每季度約 8500 萬至 9000 萬美元。這比我們在 2022 年可比全年期間應計的激勵薪酬總額高出 15%。這僅僅是根據年度財務目標重置我們當年的激勵薪酬基線的結果。

And just because I have the mic for a second. On the expense side, I wanted to get out the updated expense ramp of between $10 million and $30 million between the first and second quarter of this year, with expenses remaining relatively stable then through the rest of the year.

只是因為我有一秒鐘的麥克風。在支出方面，我希望在今年第一季度和第二季度之間擺脫更新後的 1000 萬美元至 3000 萬美元的支出增長，然後在今年剩餘時間裡支出保持相對穩定。

Yes. And Craig, the one other thing maybe I'll add just in thinking about our outlook, which is unchanged, is just maybe how can you think about puts and takes just around leveraged finance.

是的。克雷格，在考慮我們不變的前景時，我可能會補充的另一件事是，也許你怎麼能考慮看跌期權和槓桿融資。

And I think in general, leveraged finance probably represents the potential for the most upside to our outlook. Just if we -- if these markets start functioning robustly again, my sense is there's lots of dry powder and pent-up demand. We might see an uptick in sponsor-driven M&A activity. We don't have a particularly -- we don't have an aggressive forecast for M&A built into our outlook. So if we see that pick up, we could see some upside to how we're thinking about it.

我認為，總的來說，槓桿融資可能代表了我們前景的最大上行潛力。只要我們——如果這些市場再次開始強勁運轉，我的感覺就是有大量的干火藥和被壓抑的需求。我們可能會看到發起人驅動的併購活動有所增加。我們沒有特別的 - 我們沒有對併購的積極預測。因此，如果我們看到這種情況有所好轉，我們就會看到我們對它的看法有一些好處。

Mark, what were those incentive comp numbers for all -- the quarters for all of last year?

馬克，去年所有季度的所有激勵補償數字是多少？

No problem. Incentive compensation for 2022 was as follows: Approximately $76 million in the first quarter; $66 million, second; $81 million, third; and $82 million in the fourth quarter.

沒問題。 2022年激勵薪酬如下： 第一季度約7600萬美元； 6600萬美元，第二； 8100萬美元，第三；第四季度為 8200 萬美元。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

It's Andrew. I went to today's Slide 12 and I added up the 3 growth drivers, and this is for kind of aggregate MIS long-term revenue growth, and I got 6% to 9%. I was hoping that, that was the right thing to do, to add the 3 together.

是安德魯。我去了今天的幻燈片 12，我把 3 個增長動力加起來，這是 MIS 長期收入增長的總和，我得到了 6% 到 9%。我希望那是正確的做法，將 3 加在一起。

I was wondering, for the 6% to 9% long-term MIS growth, when you say long term, what's your time frame for long term?

我想知道，對於 6% 到 9% 的長期 MIS 增長，當你說長期時，你的長期時間框架是什麼？

And then kind of lastly, I want to make sure that the medium-term numbers that you gave us in January, that's kind of 5-year MIS revenue growth of low singles to mid-singles, is still in place.

最後一點，我想確保你在 1 月份給我們的中期數據，即低單打到中單打的 5 年 MIS 收入增長，仍然存在。

Andrew, so our long-term MIS revenue growth algorithm doesn't have a set base here, so we're not looking to define either the base here or the end period from which future performance could be extrapolated. Instead, the model is focused much more on historically well-established trends that we believe will be relevant in the long term and contribute ultimately to revenue growth.

安德魯，所以我們的長期 MIS 收入增長算法在這裡沒有固定的基礎，所以我們不希望在這裡定義基礎或可以推斷未來績效的結束期。相反，該模型更多地關注歷史上公認的趨勢，我們認為這些趨勢在長期內具有相關性，並最終有助於收入增長。

On the medium side, we're really looking at that 3- to 5-year window, and we're really reflecting the MIS revenue projection over that defined period of time. And then lastly, we are not withdrawing medium-term MIS revenue guidance.

在中期，我們真的在看那個 3 到 5 年的窗口，我們真的反映了 MIS 在定義的時間段內的收入預測。最後，我們不會撤回中期 MIS 收入指導。

And that's true of all the medium-term numbers that were given in January, right?

一月份給出的所有中期數字都是如此，對吧？

That is correct.

那是對的。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Your next question comes from the line of Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

So I just -- I wanted to follow up on the expenses, the ramp-up, Mark. And apologies if I missed this, but I noticed that you increased your expense guide to up mid-single digits from low single digits. Can you give us a sense of like what's driving that and which particular segment is that coming from? Because you haven't changed the margin outlook for any of the segments.

所以我只是 - 我想跟進費用，增加費用，馬克。如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但我注意到您將費用指南從低個位數增加到中個位數。你能告訴我們是什麼推動了它，它來自哪個特定細分市場嗎？因為您沒有更改任何細分市場的利潤前景。

Thank you for the question. So we expect the full year 2023 operating expenses to increase at the lower end of the mid-single-digit range. And you are absolutely right, that is above our prior forecast of low single-digit percent growth or the higher end of low single-digit percent growth.

感謝你的提問。因此，我們預計 2023 年全年運營費用將在中等個位數範圍的低端增加。你是絕對正確的，這高於我們之前預測的低個位數百分比增長或低個位數百分比增長的上限。

The primary driver for this, I'd call it slight revision, is really the expansion of our restructuring program and updates to foreign exchange rate assumptions. And given from an adjusted basis, which is what the margins are really computed off of, we would back out that restructuring piece.

這主要的驅動因素，我稱之為輕微修正，實際上是我們重組計劃的擴展和對外匯匯率假設的更新。並且根據調整後的基礎，這是實際計算利潤率的基礎，我們將退出重組部分。

I also wanted to note, the operating expense segment guidance would be along the lines of a low to mid-single-digit percent decline in MIS and are very consistent with what we said in January; and then a high single-digit percent growth in MA, also consistent with what we said in January.

我還想指出，營業費用部門的指導將遵循 MIS 中低個位數百分比下降的路線，並且與我們在 1 月份所說的非常一致；然後是 MA 的高個位數百分比增長，也與我們在 1 月份所說的一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Jeff Meuler 與 Baird 的對話。

On KYC, just as you think about the sustainability of the long-term growth, how do you think about TAM or market penetration? I guess, 1,700-plus existing customers that you cite on the website, that seems awfully low, to me at least.

在 KYC 上，正如您考慮長期增長的可持續性一樣，您如何看待 TAM 或市場滲透？我想，您在網站上引用的 1,700 多個現有客戶，這似乎非常低，至少對我而言。

And then in the near term, with PassFort Lifecycle, just help us understand how far along you are with clients upgrading to it, and if the upgrade cycle's really significant to near-term revenue trends.

然後在短期內，通過 PassFort Lifecycle，幫助我們了解您與客戶升級到它的進度，以及升級週期對近期收入趨勢是否真的很重要。

Speakers, you may be on mute.

揚聲器，您可能處於靜音狀態。

Yes, sorry. Indeed, we were. It was such a great answer, too. Sorry.

是的，對不起。確實，我們是。這也是一個很好的答案。對不起。

So maybe a couple of ways to think about that. One, I think there is an opportunity for us to continue to really drive penetration of the addressable market. You talked about PassFort. And that is really the front end, the workflow for us, so now we've got an opportunity. Like we do in banking and insurance, we've got a workflow platform that now allows us to integrate our data, our analytics, our models all into a holistic solution. And so that's a new opportunity for us, and we're seeing a good bit of enthusiasm from our customers around this.

所以也許有幾種方法可以考慮這個問題。第一，我認為我們有機會繼續真正推動潛在市場的滲透。你談到了 PassFort。那真的是前端，我們的工作流程，所以現在我們有機會了。就像我們在銀行業和保險業所做的那樣，我們擁有一個工作流平台，現在允許我們將我們的數據、我們的分析和我們的模型整合到一個整體解決方案中。所以這對我們來說是一個新的機會，我們看到客戶對此充滿熱情。

As you think about the growth drivers within the market, I'd say there are a couple of things. One, there's still a lot of KYC that's being done in-house at financial institutions and companies. So there's just, I think, a very big opportunity to automate KYC workflow within financial institutions. That still remains a significant opportunity.

當你考慮市場內的增長動力時，我會說有幾件事。第一，仍然有很多 KYC 是在金融機構和公司內部完成的。因此，我認為，在金融機構內實現 KYC 工作流程自動化是一個非常大的機會。這仍然是一個重要的機會。

But the other thing that's going on is this is broadening from know your customer to know your counterparty. And eventually, I'm going to have to come up with a better name. One of the trends we're seeing is around, I'd say, more broadly around third-party risk management.

但另一件正在發生的事情是，這正在從了解你的客戶擴大到了解你的交易對手。最終，我將不得不想出一個更好的名字。我想說，我們看到的趨勢之一是更廣泛地圍繞第三方風險管理。

So this is, I want to do some form of diligence to better understand who I'm doing business with. We're certainly seeing that with supply chain, where customers are coming to us and saying, "Hey, while we don't have all the pieces, we do give customers the ability to get a much better sense of supplier risk."

所以這就是，我想做某種形式的盡職調查，以更好地了解我在與誰做生意。我們肯定會在供應鏈中看到這一點，客戶會來找我們說，“嘿，雖然我們沒有所有的部分，但我們確實讓客戶能夠更好地了解供應商風險。”

And so that's one thing that's, I think, kind of broadening this market and supporting growth. In fact, we just did a survey about, something like 70% of firms that we surveyed were increasing their focus on spend in the space around of supply chain. So hopefully, that gives you a sense, yes.

因此，我認為這是擴大市場和支持增長的一件事。事實上，我們剛剛做了一項調查，在我們調查的公司中，大約 70% 的公司越來越關注供應鏈周圍的支出。所以希望這能給你一種感覺，是的。

Your next question comes from the line of Russell Quelch with Redburn.

你的下一個問題來自 Russell Quelch 與 Redburn 的對話。

Wanted to start with a question on pricing and to what degree you expect that to be a driver of growth in 2023, particularly in MIS. I was wondering if that would be above the 3% to 4%, given there's the long-term projection on Slide 12.

想從一個關於定價的問題開始，以及您預計定價將在多大程度上成為 2023 年增長的驅動力，尤其是在 MIS 領域。考慮到幻燈片 12 上的長期預測，我想知道這是否會超過 3% 到 4%。

Yes. So Russell, it's Rob. There is really kind of no change to, I think, either the pricing opportunity or our approach to pricing either in MIS or MA.

是的。拉塞爾，是羅伯。我認為，無論是定價機會還是我們在 MIS 或 MA 中的定價方法，確實沒有任何變化。

And let me just kind of recap for just a second. On some of our previous calls, I did mention in MIS, as we do every year, last year, we conducted a detailed review of our pricing across sectors and regions. Again, that's what we always do. Based on that work, we anticipated that the rate of increase in list prices for 2023 would reflect a bit more of an increase.

讓我稍微回顧一下。在我們之前的一些電話中，我確實在 MIS 中提到過，就像我們每年所做的那樣，去年，我們對跨部門和地區的定價進行了詳細審查。同樣，這就是我們一直在做的。基於這項工作，我們預計 2023 年標價的漲幅將反映出更多的漲幅。

That said, our actual pricing realization, really as it always does, then depends on issuance mix because we do not just apply an increase kind of ratably across the entire customer base.

也就是說，我們的實際定價實現，實際上一如既往，取決於發行組合，因為我們不只是在整個客戶群中應用一種按比例增加的方式。

So I can't really get into more detail than that, I'm sure you can appreciate that. But I am comfortable with our pricing opportunity for 2023 within that broader 3% to 4% opportunity across the firm.

所以我真的不能比這更詳細了，我相信你會理解的。但我對我們 2023 年的定價機會感到滿意，在整個公司範圍內更廣泛的 3% 到 4% 的機會。

Okay, okay. Yes, this might be a silly one, but let's go for it. You spoke to ESG and climate integration as being kind of 1 of your 4 structural growth drivers for the business. And we just heard from one of your peers that growth in this area is being negatively impacted by politics in the U.S. in the near term. I appreciate your business and solutions are servicing a slightly different user base for a slightly different use case. But are you seeing a similar near-term negative impact on new sales growth here?

好吧好吧。是的，這可能很愚蠢，但讓我們開始吧。您談到 ESG 和氣候整合是您業務的 4 個結構性增長驅動力之一。我們剛剛從您的一位同行那裡聽說，該領域的增長在短期內受到美國政治的負面影響。我感謝您的業務和解決方案為略有不同的用例服務於略有不同的用戶群。但是你是否看到了對新銷售增長的類似近期負面影響？

Yes. Russell, I think this is why we're trying to be really clear about what do our ESG and climate solutions really measure. And I almost feel like there's a little bit of an ESG 2.0 moment going on across the industry because that's what customers are asking: What do your scores actually measure?

是的。 Russell，我認為這就是為什麼我們要真正弄清楚我們的 ESG 和氣候解決方案真正衡量的是什麼。我幾乎覺得整個行業都在進行 ESG 2.0 時刻，因為這就是客戶在問的問題：您的分數實際衡量的是什麼？

So let me start with what we're doing in the rating agency. You've heard me talk about, we've rolled out over 10,000, and the name is important, Credit Impact Scores. So we have met with all of our issuers and had a dialogue with them about how E, S, and G factors impact their credit profile. We've been very clear because that's something that investors wanted to understand. So there's a very clear linkage between those scores and how we think about credit rating. And they're not new. We have always considered ESG factors in credit ratings, it's just we haven't made it as transparent as we are now doing.

那麼讓我從我們在評級機構所做的事情開始。你聽我說過，我們已經推出了 10,000 多個，這個名字很重要，信用影響評分。因此，我們會見了所有發行人，並就 E、S 和 G 因素如何影響他們的信用狀況與他們進行了對話。我們一直非常清楚，因為這是投資者想要了解的事情。因此，這些分數與我們對信用評級的看法之間存在非常明顯的聯繫。他們不是新的。我們一直在信用評級中考慮 ESG 因素，只是我們沒有像現在這樣透明。

The second thing is there's a desire to really integrate ESG and climate considerations into a broad range of processes all around the firm. And one thing that we've heard from our customers is, "Hey, I need to get a sense of my supply chain. But I've got 30,000 entities that -- or customers, tens and tens and tens of thousands of entities." So it's not just scores on public companies, but it's how do I get a better sense, a quick and dirty sense, of the ESG profile of who I'm doing business with? Of who my suppliers are?

第二件事是希望將 ESG 和氣候因素真正整合到公司範圍廣泛的流程中。我們從客戶那裡聽到的一件事是，“嘿，我需要了解我的供應鏈。但我有 30,000 個實體——或客戶，數以萬計的實體。 “所以這不僅僅是上市公司的分數，而是我如何更好地、快速地、粗略地了解我與誰做生意的 ESG 概況？我的供應商是誰？

And the third thing I would say, Russell, is, and this is in part why we made the significant investment in RMS, is because I think there is a lot of immediacy around understanding the impact of extreme weather and climate change on physical risk. So there's 2 things our customers we hear a lot about: Please help us understand and quantify physical risk relating to weather and climate, and please help us understand the financial implications of carbon transition.

羅素，我要說的第三件事是，這部分是我們對 RMS 進行重大投資的部分原因，因為我認為在理解極端天氣和氣候變化對物理風險的影響方面有很多即時性。因此，我們的客戶經常聽到兩件事：請幫助我們了解和量化與天氣和氣候相關的物理風險，請幫助我們了解碳轉型的財務影響。

And so again, that is the positioning that we're taking, is really focusing on the financial quantification of those factors for our customers and then integrating that into a broad range of the workflows that we support for our customers.

因此，這就是我們正在採取的定位，真正專注於為我們的客戶對這些因素進行財務量化，然後將其整合到我們為客戶支持的廣泛工作流程中。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh。

Just one quick follow-up. Wonder if you could just refresh our thoughts on buyback, particularly given it seems like there's some incremental cash flow from some of the tax benefit you show in the quarter. But just any thoughts around the buyback.

只是一個快速跟進。想知道您是否可以刷新我們對回購的想法，特別是考慮到您在本季度展示的一些稅收優惠似乎帶來了一些增量現金流。但只是關於回購的任何想法。

Thanks, Kevin. So our capital planning and allocation strategy is unchanged. We are committed as a management team to anchoring our financial leverage around a BBB+ rating. And as I've spoken about before, we believe that's appropriate balance between ensuring ongoing financial flexibility and lowering the cost of capital. However, given that our gross leverage as of quarter end is above that 2.5x, we are continuing to be prudent in managing our leverage and liquidity levels and ensuring financial flexibility.

謝謝，凱文。所以我們的資本規劃和配置策略沒有改變。作為一個管理團隊，我們致力於將我們的財務槓桿錨定在 BBB+ 評級周圍。正如我之前所說，我們認為在確保持續的財務靈活性和降低資本成本之間取得適當的平衡。然而，鑑於截至季度末我們的總槓桿率高於 2.5 倍，我們將繼續謹慎管理我們的槓桿率和流動性水平並確保財務靈活性。

So practically, that means we're maintaining, for now, our slightly more conservative approach to share repurchase guidance in 2023. We still plan to return approximately $800 million of global free cash flow or about 53% at the midpoint of our projected free cash flow guidance range to our stockholders. That, of course, is subject to available cash, market conditions, M&A opportunities, other ongoing capital allocation.

因此，實際上，這意味著我們目前在 2023 年的股票回購指導方針上維持略微保守的方法。我們仍計劃返還大約 8 億美元的全球自由現金流，即我們預計自由現金流中點的約 53%對我們股東的流動指導範圍。當然，這取決於可用現金、市場條件、併購機會和其他正在進行的資本配置。

And if I broke that down into its subcomponents, that would be $250 million approximately in share repo, and that's inclusive of the $41 million we did in the first quarter; as well as to distribute approximately $550 million in dividends through a quarterly dividend of $0.77 per share, which is 10% higher than the first quarter 2022 quarterly dividend.

如果我把它分解成它的子組件，那將是大約 2.5 億美元的股票回購，這包括我們在第一季度所做的 4100 萬美元；以及通過每股 0.77 美元的季度股息分配約 5.5 億美元的股息，比 2022 年第一季度的季度股息高出 10%。

And then one final but important point I just wanted to highlight is we still have approximately $800 million in total share repurchase authorization remaining. And that gives us some flexibility to evaluate our full year 2023 share repurchase guidance while continuing to monitor the operating environment as it develops.

然後我只想強調的最後但重要的一點是，我們仍有大約 8 億美元的股票回購授權總額。這使我們有一定的靈活性來評估我們的 2023 年全年股票回購指南，同時繼續監控運營環境的發展。

Your next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

I just wanted to follow up on your earlier comments on RMS and ESG as well.

我只想跟進您之前對 RMS 和 ESG 的評論。

But just on ESG, could you just remind us what your total ESG revenues were at the end of last year and this quarter and the growth rates?

但就 ESG 而言，您能否提醒我們去年年底和本季度的 ESG 總收入以及增長率？

And then something similar on RMS. I know you gave some qualitative color, but just, as a total RMS, like how is that growth rate doing versus when you first acquired it?

然後在 RMS 上有類似的東西。我知道你給出了一些定性的顏色，但是，作為一個總的 RMS，比如這個增長率與你第一次獲得它時相比如何？

Manav, let me start with RMS, and I'll just kind of recap 2022 and how we're thinking about 2023. But in general, I would say we feel very good about our ongoing synergy and integration efforts. And we are very excited about the value of the data, the analytics and the expertise of the team. So last year, we achieved mid-single-digit sales growth, that was what we were targeting. This year, inclusive of synergies, and those are important, we expect to get that sales growth to high single digit for the year.

Manav，讓我從 RMS 開始，我將回顧一下 2022 年以及我們對 2023 年的看法。但總的來說，我想說我們對正在進行的協同和整合工作感到非常滿意。我們對數據的價值、分析和團隊的專業知識感到非常興奮。所以去年，我們實現了中個位數的銷售增長，這就是我們的目標。今年，包括協同效應在內，這些都很重要，我們預計今年的銷售增長將達到高個位數。

I would also -- while we're on the topic of RMS, we've also invested to accelerate the build-out of that intelligent risk cloud-based platform that I mentioned. And the reason -- one of the reasons that's so important is, when we're rolling out something like Climate on Demand, where there's a lot of near-term customer demand for something like that, by having that cloud-based platform, it was very easy for us to roll that out and get that launched. We've also been able to launch our ESG for underwriting offering. And we're just in the process now, we just had our first customer win, for a new net zero underwriting module.

我也會 - 當我們討論 RMS 的主題時，我們還投資以加速構建我提到的基於智能風險雲的平台。原因 - 如此重要的原因之一是，當我們推出像 Climate on Demand 這樣的東西時，通過擁有基於雲的平台，有很多近期客戶對類似東西的需求，它我們很容易推出並啟動它。我們還能夠推出用於承銷產品的 ESG。我們現在才剛剛開始，我們剛剛贏得了第一個客戶，一個新的淨零承保模塊。

So you heard me talk about understanding physical risk, integrating ESG, understanding the impact of carbon transition. All 3 of those things are things that are supporting both -- that we're doing in terms of product development and supporting sales growth at RMS.

所以你聽到我談論了解物理風險、整合 ESG、了解碳轉型的影響。所有這三件事都是支持兩者的事情——我們在產品開發和支持 RMS 的銷售增長方面所做的事情。

Manav, for the full year 2023, we're projecting ESG and climate-related revenues to also increase in that high single-digit percent range. And that would be off of the actual 2022 full year results of $189 million.

Manav，對於 2023 年全年，我們預計 ESG 和氣候相關收入也將以高個位數百分比增長。這將超出 2022 年 1.89 億美元的實際全年業績。

And Manav, one other thing I'll steer everybody to. In a couple of weeks, we've got our annual conference called Exceedance. I think it's the second week of May. And so if you want to learn a little bit more about what RMS is doing, we're going to have several important product launches and partnerships that we're going to announce that week. So that's a good opportunity for people to dial in and learn more.

還有 Manav，還有一件事我會引導大家去做。幾週後，我們召開了名為 Exceedance 的年度會議。我認為這是五月的第二週。因此，如果您想更多地了解 RMS 在做什麼，我們將在本周宣布幾個重要的產品發布和合作夥伴關係。因此，這是人們參與進來並了解更多信息的好機會。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question will come from the line of Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題將來自 Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities。

A lot of my questions have been answered here, but I wanted to follow up on a question on cash flows and buybacks. Because obviously, as issuance, issuance (inaudible) with upside as some of you expect, I guess. There's going to be high incremental cash flow coming from that. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the priorities of that deployment of that incremental cash flow, should it happen. And maybe the pipeline of M&A opportunities you see right now and how that's developing given the market environment we see.

我的很多問題都在這裡得到了回答，但我想跟進一個關於現金流和回購的問題。因為很明顯，作為發行，發行（聽不清），我想正如你們中的一些人所期望的那樣。這將帶來高額的增量現金流。我想知道如果發生這種情況，您是否可以多談談部署增量現金流的優先事項。也許你現在看到的併購機會的管道以及在我們看到的市場環境下它是如何發展的。

In terms of the capital planning and allocation, I would also make the point that, that remains unchanged from prior philosophy. First, we're going to look for opportunities for both organic and inorganic investment in some of the high-priority markets that we've spoken about in the call today that ultimately are going to enrich that ecosystem of data, analytical solutions and insights. After deploying any investment dollars, we're going to look to return that capital to our stockholders through dividends and through share repurchases.

在資本規劃和分配方面，我還要指出的是，這與之前的理念保持不變。首先，我們將在今天的電話會議中談到的一些高優先級市場尋找有機和無機投資機會，這些市場最終將豐富數據、分析解決方案和見解的生態系統。在部署任何投資資金後，我們將尋求通過股息和股票回購將這些資本返還給我們的股東。

Just one other comment here. In the first quarter itself on the free cash flow side, the result was higher compared to the prior year period, and that was really due to an improvement in working capital this quarter despite sort of the lower net income vis-à-vis the first quarter of 2022. And that improvement in working capital was driven by higher 2021-related incentive compensation payments that came through in the first quarter of '22.

這裡只有另一條評論。在第一季度本身的自由現金流方面，結果高於去年同期，這實際上是由於本季度營運資本的改善，儘管淨收入低於第一季度2022 年季度。營運資金的改善是由 2022 年第一季度與 2021 年相關的更高激勵薪酬支付推動的。

Yes. Simon, it's Rob also. Just I think your question was in regards to Moody's M&A, right? Yes. So yes, I thought so.

是的。西蒙，也是羅伯。我想你的問題是關於穆迪的併購，對吧？是的。所以是的，我是這麼認為的。

So just on that topic, we're -- as I've always said, we have a great team. We have well-defined growth road maps that are informed by customer needs, market trends.

所以就這個話題而言，我們 - 正如我一直所說的那樣，我們擁有一支優秀的團隊。我們根據客戶需求和市場趨勢制定了明確的增長路線圖。

And it's interesting because when you have a meaningful kind of dislocation like we had in the markets last year, oftentimes, you'll see kind of a disconnect between buyer and seller expectations. And it takes some time to kind of be able to bridge that gap, unless you've got sellers who have a capital structure or some other trigger that is forcing them to sell. Oftentimes, what we'll see in our space is folks will sit on the sidelines until valuations improve.

這很有趣，因為當你像我們去年在市場上遇到的那樣發生有意義的錯位時，通常你會看到買賣雙方的期望之間存在某種脫節。彌合這種差距需要一些時間，除非你的賣家擁有資本結構或其他一些迫使他們出售的觸發因素。通常，我們會在我們的領域看到的是，在估值提高之前，人們會袖手旁觀。

And it's interesting because we have seen kind of a bifurcation in valuations between high-growth companies that are profitable, which are still commanding a premium; high-growth companies that are unprofitable, less so; and lower-growth companies. And so I think that kind of informs -- starts to inform buyer and seller expectations.

這很有趣，因為我們已經看到盈利的高增長公司和仍在溢價的公司之間的估值出現分歧；不盈利的高增長公司，不那麼盈利；和低增長的公司。所以我認為這種信息 - 開始告知買賣雙方的期望。

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Kramm with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Alex Kramm。

I know it's late in the call, but just a quick follow-up on the MA margin. I think you said something about flat in the second quarter. I'm sorry if I missed this. And I assume, looking at your guidance, that we should get some nice inflection then in the back half. Maybe ended like 33% or so in the 4Q. Is that a good run rate then to think about next year? I know it's early, but maybe just talk a little bit more about the MA margin if you haven't addressed it.

我知道電話已經晚了，但只是對 MA 保證金的快速跟進。我想你在第二季度說過一些關於持平的事情。如果我錯過了這個，我很抱歉。而且我假設，看看你的指導，我們應該在後半部分得到一些很好的變化。可能在第四季度結束了 33% 左右。考慮明年，這是一個很好的運行率嗎？我知道現在還早，但如果你還沒有解決的話，也許只是多談談 MA 保證金。

Alex, the MA margin as we think through to the second quarter is expected to be relatively flattish to the first quarter. And then we do expect it to progressively increase over the remainder of the year sort of in line with both revenue growth and as the benefit from our expense actions begins to take place. It is a little bit too early for us to think about 2024 just yet.

亞歷克斯，我們認為到第二季度的 MA 利潤率預計與第一季度相對持平。然後我們確實預計它會在今年剩餘時間裡逐步增加，這與收入增長以及我們的支出行動的好處開始顯現一致。現在考慮 2024 年還為時過早。

On the margin for the first quarter, just 2 minutes on this. There were 2 primary impacts in terms of why the margin in Q1 was a little bit lower than last year. First was we accelerated some of the opportunistic investment in the business, and that's going to be product development, technology, sales deployment, et cetera.

在第一節的邊際上，只有 2 分鐘。第一季度的利潤率比去年略低的原因有兩個主要影響。首先是我們加快了對業務的一些機會主義投資，這將是產品開發、技術、銷售部署等。

But second, there is an element of timing related to both the MA revenue and expenses. On the revenue side, we had a favorable revenue recognition in the prior year period. And then on the expense side, you'll recall, Alex, that the first quarter of 2022 had a relatively low level of investment because we had accelerated some of that work into the fourth quarter of 2021.

但其次，有一個與 MA 收入和支出相關的時間因素。在收入方面，我們在去年同期獲得了有利的收入確認。然後在費用方面，亞歷克斯，你會記得，2022 年第一季度的投資水平相對較低，因為我們已將部分工作加速到 2021 年第四季度。

And then just maybe while I'm on here, on the ARR side, I think again, maybe this is just the currency, et cetera, but like I think the dollar amount of ARR actually dropped quarter-over-quarter. I'm not sure if you addressed that, but maybe just flesh it out as well.

然後也許當我在這裡的時候，在 ARR 方面，我再次想，也許這只是貨幣等等，但就像我認為 ARR 的美元金額實際上環比下降。我不確定你是否解決了這個問題，但也許也只是充實一下。

Thanks for the question. And Alex, your intuition, as usual, is spot on here. So we introduced, just as a reminder, ARR, or annualized recurring revenue, in the first quarter of last year. And we continue to emphasize it as a very meaningful growth metric for MA as it removes the impact of uneven revenue recognition from some of these multiyear arrangements as well as sales mix. However, since this is the first time we've rolled over the metric from 1 calendar year to another, it's probably just worth a second to do a quick refresh of definitions, right?

謝謝你的問題。和亞歷克斯一樣，你的直覺一如既往地準確無誤。因此，作為提醒，我們在去年第一季度引入了 ARR，即年化經常性收入。我們繼續強調它是 MA 非常有意義的增長指標，因為它消除了其中一些多年期安排和銷售組合中收入確認不均的影響。然而，由於這是我們第一次將指標從一個日曆年滾動到另一個日曆年，所以可能只需要花一秒鐘時間快速刷新定義，對吧？

So ARR is a constant currency organic metric, and it utilizes a single set of FX rates for each calendar year. And our ARR table in the back of the quarter's earnings release translates both current period, which is the Q1 '23, and prior period, Q1 '22, at the same rates, right, with the idea of expressing sort of this constant dollar growth rate.

因此，ARR 是一種固定貨幣有機指標，它在每個日曆年使用一組單一的外匯匯率。我們在本季度收益發布後的 ARR 表以相同的比率對當前時期（即 23 年第一季度）和上一時期（即 22 年第一季度）進行了轉換，以表達這種持續的美元增長速度。

So sequential figures within the year are comparable, but those that are across years are not. And if I adjust for the FX rates, what you'll find is that approximately $80 million in ARR in 2023 was not reported simply because of that FX movement, in other words, U.S. dollar appreciation between last year and this year. And so if we add back the $80 million of revenue to the Q1 ARR to make it more comparable to the 2022 number, you'll see that growth come through in our reported figures.

所以年內的連續數字是可比的，但跨年的數字不是。如果我調整匯率，你會發現 2023 年大約 8000 萬美元的 ARR 並沒有報告，僅僅是因為外匯變動，換句話說，去年和今年之間的美元升值。因此，如果我們將 8000 萬美元的收入加回第一季度 ARR 以使其與 2022 年的數字更具可比性，您會在我們報告的數據中看到增長。

And we have no further questions at this time.

我們現在沒有其他問題了。

Okay. So thanks, everybody. We appreciate you joining us on today's call, and we look forward to talking with you next quarter. Take care.

好的。所以謝謝大家。感謝您加入我們今天的電話會議，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。小心。

This concludes Moody's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay will be made available immediately after the call on the Moody's IR website. Thank you. You may now disconnect.

穆迪 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議到此結束。提醒一下，在此次電話會議之後，公司將立即在穆迪 IR 主頁的“投資者資源”部分下發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，Moody's IR 網站將在電話會議結束後立即提供重播。謝謝。您現在可以斷開連接。