穆迪 (MCO) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded (Operator Instructions). I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。此時，我想通知您，本次會議正在錄製中（操作員說明）。我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us to discuss Moody's second quarter '22 results and our revised outlook for full year 2022. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. This morning, Moody's released its results for the second quarter of 2022 as well as our revised outlook for full year 2022. The earnings press release and a presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

謝謝你。下午好，感謝您與我們一起討論穆迪 22 年第二季度的業績和我們對 2022 年全年的修訂展望。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。今天上午，穆迪發布了 2022 年第二季度的業績以及我們對 2022 年全年的修訂展望。本次電話會議的收益新聞稿和演示文稿均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上查閱。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for a reconciliation between all adjusted measures referenced during this call in U.S. GAAP.

在本次電話會議中，我們還將展示非公認會計原則或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天上午提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解在美國公認會計原則電話會議期間引用的所有調整後措施之間的對賬。

I call your attention to the safe harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website. These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

我提請您注意安全港語言，該語言可以在我們的收益發布結束時找到。今天的評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論和分析部分以及我們在 Form 的年度報告中討論的風險因素截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K，以及該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，這些文件可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。這些與安全港聲明一起列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果大不相同的重要因素。

I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode. Before we begin, I'm pleased to announce that in response to feedback from our external stakeholders, we have enhanced our earnings materials and changed the format of our call for this quarter. This morning, on our IR website, we published our supplementary presentation along with our updated earnings release, materials that we believe provide substantial insights into our business. As such, during the call, we will not be going through our usual presentation. Instead, Rob Fauber, Moody's President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide a brief overview of our results and outlook, after which he will be joined by Mark Kaye, Moody's Chief Financial Officer, to answer your questions.

我還想指出，媒體成員今天早上可能會以只聽模式接聽電話。在開始之前，我很高興地宣布，為了回應外部利益相關者的反饋，我們已經改進了我們的收益材料並改變了本季度電話會議的格式。今天早上，在我們的投資者關係網站上，我們發布了我們的補充演示文稿以及我們更新的收益發布，我們認為這些材料為我們的業務提供了實質性的見解。因此，在電話會議期間，我們不會進行通常的演示。相反，穆迪總裁兼首席執行官 Rob Fauber 將簡要概述我們的業績和前景，之後穆迪首席財務官 Mark Kaye 將與他一起回答您的問題。

I will now turn the call over Rob Fauber.

我現在將把電話轉給 Rob Fauber。

Thanks, Shivani. Hello, and thanks to everyone for joining today's call. And as Shivani mentioned, I'm going to keep my opening remarks brief so that we can get straight to your questions. And I appreciate that it's been a very busy morning for many of you on the call. So let me begin with a few key takeaways about our results. And then I want to spend a few minutes on our outlook and the continued strength and relevance of our business.

謝謝，希瓦尼。您好，感謝大家加入今天的電話會議。正如 Shivani 所提到的，我將保持我的開場白簡短，以便我們可以直接回答您的問題。我很感謝你們中的許多人在電話會議上度過了一個非常忙碌的早晨。因此，讓我從關於我們的結果的一些關鍵要點開始。然後我想花幾分鐘談談我們的前景以及我們業務的持續實力和相關性。

So let me start by reinforcing that as challenging and volatile conditions in global capital markets continue, we're leading the way in providing integrated perspectives on risk for our customers. And this quarter was really a tale of 2 cities as our Ratings business was significantly impacted by the slowdown in issuance activity and our MA business continued to grow very nicely. And as we've said previously, year-on-year comparisons with our record performance in 2021 would be unfavorable this year.

因此，讓我首先強調，隨著全球資本市場的挑戰和動盪狀況持續存在，我們在為客戶提供綜合風險視角方面處於領先地位。本季度確實是兩個城市的故事，因為我們的評級業務受到發行活動放緩的顯著影響，我們的 MA 業務繼續保持良好增長。正如我們之前所說，與我們在 2021 年的創紀錄業績相比，今年將是不利的。

And overall, Moody's revenue declined approximately 11% in the second quarter. And given the operating leverage in the MIS business as well as the negative impact of foreign exchange, adjusted diluted earnings per share declined by 31% from the prior period -- prior year period to $2.22. MIS, which was significantly impacted by ongoing cyclical disruption in the global debt markets due to a few things: rising interest rates, high inflation, unsettled geopolitical conditions. MIS generated revenue of $706 million.

總體而言，穆迪第二季度的收入下降了約 11%。鑑於 MIS 業務的經營槓桿以及外彙的負面影響，調整後的攤薄每股收益較上年同期下降 31% - 上年同期為 2.22 美元。 MIS 受到全球債務市場持續週期性中斷的重大影響，原因如下：利率上升、高通脹、不穩定的地緣政治狀況。 MIS 創造了 7.06 億美元的收入。

And really, to put that in perspective, global rated issuance was down 32% for the quarter. and transaction revenue was down 40%, and that reflects the negative mix driven by the weakness in the leveraged finance markets. And when balanced by our recurring revenue, this translated to a 28% decline in total MIS revenue for the quarter.

實際上，從這個角度來看，本季度全球評級發行量下降了 32%。交易收入下降 40%，這反映了槓桿金融市場疲軟導致的負面組合。當與我們的經常性收入相平衡時，這意味著本季度 MIS 總收入下降了 28%。

Now on the other hand, customer demand for our MA suite of solutions that help navigate market uncertainty and identify and measure and manage risk, that demand remained robust. And that fueled steady growth in our subscription and SaaS-based products, which, along with the contributions from prior year acquisitions, delivered revenue growth of 18%.

另一方面，客戶對我們的 MA 解決方案套件的需求，這些解決方案有助於駕馭市場不確定性並識別、衡量和管理風險，這種需求仍然強勁。這推動了我們的訂閱和基於 SaaS 的產品的穩定增長，加上上一年收購的貢獻，實現了 18% 的收入增長。

And MA revenue growth was negatively impacted by 5 percentage points due to FX in the quarter. Now you'll recall earlier this year, we introduced an annualized recurring revenue or ARR metric for MA, and we believe that's a good indicator of future growth. In this quarter, our organic ARR grew by 9%, and we expect this growth to further increase to low double digits by year-end. And that's supported by both our ongoing product development investments that broaden the ways in which we serve our customers and by the growth in our sales force and strong sales execution.

由於本季度的外匯，MA 收入增長受到 5 個百分點的負面影響。現在你會記得今年早些時候，我們為 MA 引入了年度經常性收入或 ARR 指標，我們相信這是未來增長的一個很好的指標。在本季度，我們的有機 ARR 增長了 9%，我們預計到年底這一增長將進一步增長至兩位數的低位。這得到了我們正在進行的產品開發投資的支持，這些投資拓寬了我們為客戶服務的方式，以及我們銷售隊伍的增長和強大的銷售執行力。

Now I expect that many of you will have questions about our outlook in a few minutes. And I'd like to make a few comments about our expectations before we get to it in the Q&A. And we anticipate that the current market disruption will persist for the remainder of the year, and we've updated our guidance to reflect that. Now obviously, if actual conditions differ from the assumptions underlying our guidance, our results for the year may differ from our revised outlook.

現在我希望你們中的許多人會在幾分鐘內對我們的前景有疑問。在我們進行問答之前，我想對我們的期望發表一些評論。我們預計當前的市場混亂將持續到今年剩餘時間，我們已經更新了我們的指導以反映這一點。現在顯然，如果實際情況與我們指導的假設不同，我們今年的結果可能與我們修訂後的展望不同。

Now for MIS, we expect issuance to decline approximately 30% for the year and full year 2022 revenue to decrease in the low 20s percent range. Now the last 2.5 years have been unusual to say the least, so I have to again (inaudible), the confidence interval around our outlook is probably wider than it was. Our business outlook for MA remains unchanged. However, due to the impact of the weakening euro and British pound against the U.S. dollar, were slightly reducing MA's revenue growth outlook to the mid-teens percent range.

現在對於 MIS，我們預計全年發行量將下降約 30%，2022 年全年收入將下降 20% 左右。現在至少可以說過去 2.5 年是不尋常的，所以我不得不再次（聽不清），我們前景的置信區間可能比以前更寬。我們對 MA 的業務前景保持不變。然而，由於歐元和英鎊兌美元走弱的影響，MA 的收入增長前景略微下調至 10% 左右。

Now taking the reduced MIS revenue guidance and the impact of foreign exchange into account, we now forecast Moody's full year 2022 revenue to decline in the high single-digit percent range and adjusted earnings per share are now projected to be in the range of $9.20 to $9.70. Incorporated into our outlook is a new restructuring program, and that's part of our broader approach to expense management. This geolocation restructuring program helps us further adapt to the new global workplace and talent realities, and it accelerates a number of ongoing cost efficiency initiatives, and that includes real estate optimization and increased utilization of lower-cost operational hubs.

現在考慮到降低的 MIS 收入指引和外匯影響，我們現在預測穆迪 2022 年全年收入將在高個位數百分比範圍內下降，調整後每股收益現在預計在 9.20 美元至9.70 美元。我們的展望中包含了一項新的重組計劃，這是我們更廣泛的費用管理方法的一部分。這一地理定位重組計劃幫助我們進一步適應新的全球工作場所和人才現實，並加速了許多正在進行的成本效率計劃，其中包括房地產優化和低成本運營中心的更多利用。

We expect this program to generate $40 million to $60 million in annualized savings with up to $75 million in aggregate charges through 2023, and we plan to partially redeploy these savings back into the business to support ongoing organic investments, including things like sales deployment and employee retention.

我們預計到 2023 年，該計劃每年可節省 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元，總費用高達 7500 萬美元，我們計劃將這些節省部分重新部署到業務中，以支持持續的有機投資，包括銷售部署和員工保留。

Now before I open it up to questions, let me try to put all this into perspective for a few minutes. Now debt issuance markets are clearly in a period of cyclical turbulence. However, we believe that the fundamental drivers of issuance remain firmly intact. And taking a medium-term view, we expect issuance to resume as capital markets adjust to a higher interest rate environment. And as you saw in the slides that we shared this morning, the volume of outstanding corporate debt in the U.S. has grown each year for the last 30 years, and we believe that the fundamental role of debt in fueling economic activity and financing business growth remains unchanged.

現在，在我提出問題之前，讓我試著用幾分鐘來審視一下這一切。現在債券發行市場顯然處於週期性動盪時期。然而，我們認為發行的基本驅動因素仍然完好無損。從中期來看，隨著資本市場適應更高的利率環境，我們預計發行將恢復。正如您在我們今天上午分享的幻燈片中看到的那樣，過去 30 年來，美國未償公司債務的數量每年都在增長，我們相信債務在推動經濟活動和為業務增長融資方面的基本作用仍然存在不變。

Global GDP growth is expected to continue, albeit at a lower rate. Corporate refinancing needs remain strong. And on a historical basis, rates and spreads are relatively in line with their averages despite some recent increases. So during this market -- this period of market turbulence, we're going to continue to focus on what we can control in MIS. And that is to ensure that Moody's remains the rating agency of choice, providing a world-class experience for issuers and ensuring the quality, relevance and timeliness of our ratings, research and insights that all reinforce investor demand pull.

預計全球 GDP 增長將繼續，儘管增速有所放緩。企業再融資需求依然強勁。從歷史上看，儘管最近有所上漲，但利率和利差仍與平均水平相對一致。所以在這個市場——這個市場動蕩的時期，我們將繼續關注我們可以在 MIS 中控制的內容。這是為了確保穆迪仍然是首選的評級機構，為發行人提供世界級的經驗，並確保我們的評級、研究和見解的質量、相關性和及時性，這些都加強了投資者的需求拉動。

MA remains a strong and resilient business with almost 60 quarters of consecutive growth. And our investments in product development and sales are accelerating our organic ARR growth, and we're realizing the benefits of our recent acquisitions. In fact, we're ahead of or have met with targets that we set for our acquisitions of BvD and RDC, and though it's early days, we are on track to meet our targets for RMS.

MA 仍然是一個強大而有彈性的業務，連續增長了近 60 個季度。我們在產品開發和銷售方面的投資正在加速我們的有機 ARR 增長，我們正在意識到我們最近收購的好處。事實上，我們已經提前或已經達到了我們為收購 BvD 和 RDC 設定的目標，儘管現在還處於早期階段，但我們有望實現我們的 RMS 目標。

Now stepping back and looking at the big picture again for just a moment. We see strong demand for our integrated risk assessment offerings. And the value that Moody's provides to our customers, especially in these uncertain times, remains unmatched. So across the business, we're innovating and investing to provide our customers and market participants with the products and the insights that they need to decode risks and unlock opportunities.

現在退後一步，重新審視一下大局。我們看到對我們的綜合風險評估產品的強勁需求。穆迪為我們的客戶提供的價值，尤其是在這些不確定的時期，仍然是無與倫比的。因此，在整個業務領域，我們都在進行創新和投資，為我們的客戶和市場參與者提供他們解碼風險和釋放機會所需的產品和洞察力。

And lastly, all of this would not be possible without the tremendous efforts of our people, and I want to thank them for all of their continued hard work and dedication. So that concludes my prepared remarks. So Mark and I would be pleased to take your questions. Operator?

最後，如果沒有我們人民的巨大努力，這一切都是不可能的，我要感謝他們一直以來的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我準備好的發言到此結束。所以馬克和我很樂意回答你的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自高盛的 George Tong。

I really welcome the new format for the earnings call. You're assuming issuance volumes declined 30%, it looks like, in 2022, based on your supplemental materials. How much conservatism is baked into that guidance? And what does that assume for issuance volume performance over the remainder of the year compared to performance over the first several months? How should we think about seasonality in 3Q issuance?

我真的很歡迎財報電話會議的新格式。根據您的補充材料，您假設發行量在 2022 年下降了 30%。該指南包含多少保守主義？與前幾個月的表現相比，這對今年剩餘時間的發行量表現有何假設？我們應該如何看待三季度發行的季節性？

Yes, George, thanks for the feedback. So I suspect there'll be a few questions on issuance and outlook on this call. So I'm going to start, George, by trying to take kind of a big picture view, and then I will get to your question about kind of year-to-date year to go. But let me try to put this year's issuance into some sort of historical perspective.

是的，喬治，感謝您的反饋。所以我懷疑這次電話會議的發行和前景會有一些問題。因此，喬治，我將首先嘗試從宏觀角度看，然後我會回答你關於今年年初至今的問題。但是讓我試著把今年的發行放在某種歷史的角度。

First of all, there are 2, not 1 but 2, big shocks that are impacting the markets at the same time right now. And the first is what I think we all understand is the inevitable monetary tightening after a period of historically low interest rates. And now we've got the Fed aggressively addressing inflation. And that has caused a lot of uncertainty in regards to both the trajectory and the pace of rate increases versus what I think the market had both assumed and was hoping for would be a kind of slow and steady and well understood trajectory of rate increases during a period of tightening.

首先，目前有 2 個，而不是 1 個，而是 2 個巨大的衝擊正在同時影響市場。第一個是我認為我們都理解的是在一段歷史性的低利率之後不可避免的貨幣緊縮。現在我們已經讓美聯儲積極應對通脹問題。這在加息的軌跡和速度方面造成了很多不確定性，而我認為市場已經假設並希望的是一種緩慢、穩定且易於理解的加息軌跡。緊縮時期。

But the second shock that we've got is the uncertainty around the duration and the severity of the Russian-Ukraine crisis, and that's obviously led to a spike in energy prices that's further contributed to inflation, and it's also just eroded, I think, global confidence in general. So -- and not to mention, we are still dealing with COVID-19 and the knock-on impacts of supply chain disruptions.

但我們遇到的第二個衝擊是俄烏危機持續時間和嚴重程度的不確定性，這顯然導致能源價格飆升，進一步推高了通貨膨脹，而且我認為它也只是被侵蝕了，全球信心普遍。所以 - 更不用說，我們仍在處理 COVID-19 和供應鏈中斷的連鎖影響。

So that's a lot of complexity. And that complexity is causing tremendous volatility in the markets that we're all living through as investors are trying to navigate all of these interdependent shocks and their implications.

所以這很複雜。這種複雜性正在導致我們所經歷的市場出現巨大波動，因為投資者正試圖應對所有這些相互依存的衝擊及其影響。

Now let me put this in perspective. With all of that going on, our outlook for issuance this year is almost exactly on top of the average annual issuance of something like $4.4 trillion over the last decade, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. So yes, issuance is going to be down significantly. But when you think about comparing it to 2019, that was quite a normal functioning year.

現在讓我來看待這個問題。隨著這一切的繼續，我們今年的發行前景幾乎完全高於過去十年的平均年發行量，例如 4.4 萬億美元，不包括 2020 年和 2021 年的大流行年。所以是的，發行量將是顯著下降。但是，當您考慮將其與 2019 年進行比較時，那是相當正常的一年。

Great. And as a follow-up, you've previously given medium-term targets for MIS margins in the low 60s. What are your latest views on medium-term MIS margins and how much flexibility do you have in managing MIS expenses?

偉大的。作為後續行動，您之前已經給出了 MIS 利潤率在 60 年代低點的中期目標。您對中期 MIS 利潤率的最新看法是什麼？您在管理 MIS 費用方面有多大的靈活性？

George, MIS' medium- to long-term business fundamentals remain intact. And that's, again, based on our view that the current market disruption in issuance is cyclical rather than structural in nature. And our view is informed by several data points and observations. For example, the stock of data has stably grown over the past several decades. The price to value is compelling for our customers and that there are strong refinancing needs that will buttress the transactional revenue base.

喬治，MIS的中長期業務基本面保持不變。這也是基於我們的觀點，即當前的市場發行中斷是周期性的，而不是結構性的。我們的觀點是由幾個數據點和觀察得出的。例如，數據存量在過去幾十年中穩定增長。對我們的客戶來說，物有所值的價格具有吸引力，並且有強大的再融資需求將支撐交易收入基礎。

I'd also note that credit spreads themselves are close to historical averages, and the interest burden effectively remains low for corporates. Therefore, as issuance growth normalizes in the future, we expect the MIS adjusted operating margin to stabilize in that low 60% range. Furthermore, we are continuing to carefully evaluate our expense base while reinvesting through the cycle to support strategic expense growth initiatives in MIS, and that's going to include ESG and climate, technology enablement, strengthening of our analytical capabilities as well as expansion into new markets, regions and evolving risk areas.

我還要指出，信用利差本身接近歷史平均水平，企業的利息負擔實際上仍然很低。因此，隨著未來發行量增長正常化，我們預計 MIS 調整後的營業利潤率將穩定在 60% 的低位範圍內。此外，我們將繼續仔細評估我們的費用基礎，同時在整個週期內進行再投資，以支持 MIS 的戰略費用增長計劃，這將包括 ESG 和氣候、技術支持、加強我們的分析能力以及擴展到新市場，區域和不斷演變的風險區域。

And with that, I'd say we still feel confident about that low 60s, medium-term target range.

有了這個，我想說我們仍然對 60 年代的中期目標範圍充滿信心。

Out next question will come from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

I'll echo my sentiment on the new disclosure is very helpful. I guess just following up on the issuance. Could you frame out because to your point, the $4.4 trillion seems like the 10-year average. And I know we're not going out to 2023. But as you think about kind of beyond '22, does it hover around that?

我會回應我對新披露的看法非常有幫助。我想只是跟進發行。你能不能解釋一下，因為在你看來，4.4 萬億美元似乎是 10 年的平均水平。而且我知道我們不會到 2023 年。但是當你考慮到 22 年以後，它會徘徊在那個附近嗎？

And maybe just talk to supply versus demand dynamics within the context of issuance more what gets investors reengaged. Is it the Fed funds at the increase at the end of the month or more visibility on the Ukraine? I know that's a hard question, but just any way to frame where you think that gets reengaged and whether or not it's just the refinances that ultimately trigger some incremental issuance?

也許只是在發行的背景下談論供需動態，更多的是讓投資者重新參與。是聯邦基金在月底增加還是對烏克蘭的知名度更高？我知道這是一個很難的問題，但只是任何方式來構建你認為重新參與的地方，以及是否只是再融資最終觸發了一些增量發行？

Yes, Kevin, so let me maybe talk a little bit about kind of upsides and downsides to kind of our outlook and see if this addresses your question. But let me know.

是的，凱文，所以讓我談談我們的前景的優點和缺點，看看這是否解決了你的問題。但是讓我知道。

Look, I think in developing the outlook, we feel like it's largely kind of weighted towards the downside. We've effectively taken the activity and the market conditions that we've seen in the first half of the year. We've effectively rolled that forward for the balance of this year and assume that that's effectively what we're going to have for the rest of the year.

看，我認為在發展前景時，我們覺得它在很大程度上偏向下行。我們有效地應對了我們在上半年看到的活動和市場狀況。我們已經在今年餘下時間有效地推進了這一點，並假設這實際上是我們在今年餘下時間將擁有的。

So you're asking kind of what could get maybe the market started. I think one of the keys that we're going to look at is whether we continue with economic growth or whether we tip into recession. And I think one of the keys to that is inflation. If the Fed can get that under control, I think there's the possibility that they pull back from more aggressive rate hikes towards the end of this year and into 2023.

所以你問的是什麼可以讓市場開始。我認為我們要關注的關鍵之一是我們是繼續經濟增長還是陷入衰退。我認為其中的關鍵之一是通貨膨脹。如果美聯儲能夠控制住這種情況，我認為他們有可能在今年年底和 2023 年退出更激進的加息。

I mean, you mentioned Russia and Ukraine. Certainly, some sort of resolution there, which would address some of the supply chain issues and ease some of the inflation on commodity prices, but also just reinforce market confidence, I think, would be a positive. And that point around confidence is very important because it's very difficult for issuers to issue into volatile markets. So the volatility that we see in equity markets translates into volatility in issuing in the debt markets. And so some period of stability. So that's why the kind of certainty in resolving some of these things, I think, will be quite helpful.

我的意思是，你提到了俄羅斯和烏克蘭。當然，那裡的某種解決方案將解決一些供應鏈問題並緩解一些商品價格通脹，但也只會增強市場信心，我認為這將是積極的。圍繞信心的這一點非常重要，因為發行人很難在動蕩的市場中發行。因此，我們在股票市場看到的波動轉化為債券市場發行的波動。所以有一段時間的穩定。所以這就是為什麼我認為解決其中一些問題的確定性會非常有幫助。

In terms of headwinds. It's a little bit of the converse, right? But it's worth mentioning in a recession scenario, that's when we'd see defaults likely start to tick up and spreads widen, that would be a headwind. So we're keeping -- really kind of keeping an eye on that.

在逆風方面。這有點相反，對吧？但值得一提的是，在經濟衰退的情況下，當我們看到違約可能開始上升並且利差擴大時，這將是一個逆風。所以我們一直在關注——真的很關注這一點。

That's super helpful. And then just to follow up real quick. It seems like you're keeping the expense investments intact against kind of some of the adjustments in revenue. Is that just a function of the confidence in the business? Or is there opportunity to maybe take advantage of some of the dislocation that the market currently offers?

這非常有幫助。然後只是為了快速跟進。看起來你在對收入的一些調整保持不變的費用投資。這僅僅是對業務的信心的一個功能嗎？還是有機會利用市場目前提供的一些錯位？

Kevin, we view very much, as Rob mentioned a moment ago, the market conditions as being cyclical in nature. That really means we're going to plan to invest through the cycle as we execute on our strategy of providing global integrated perspectives on risk.

凱文，正如 Rob 剛才提到的，我們非常認為市場狀況本質上是周期性的。這實際上意味著我們將計劃在整個週期內進行投資，因為我們執行我們提供全球綜合風險視角的戰略。

The opportunity set itself is very substantial in markets that are large and expanding, KYC and compliance, banking and insurance. And therefore, even though we're continuing to evaluate and support investment opportunities underpinning our future revenue growth and expansion, we're going to balance that against those activities that are needed to generate short-term cost efficiencies to support our margins and ultimately help us achieve our medium-term margin objectives.

在龐大且不斷擴大的市場、KYC 和合規、銀行和保險市場中，機會本身是非常可觀的。因此，即使我們繼續評估和支持支持我們未來收入增長和擴張的投資機會，我們仍將平衡這些活動與產生短期成本效率以支持我們的利潤並最終幫助我們實現了我們的中期利潤目標。

So for example, we remain committed to organically invest $150 million in areas this year like product development, sales distribution capacity as well as an additional $50 million into our and back to our employees, and that's going to be balanced against some of the new cost efficiencies, which are derived from the 2022, 2023 geolocation restructuring program that we announced this morning.

因此，例如，我們今年仍致力於在產品開發、銷售分銷能力等領域有機投資 1.5 億美元，並額外向我們的員工和返還給員工的 5000 萬美元投資，這將與一些新成本相平衡效率，這些來自我們今天早上宣布的 2022 年、2023 年地理定位重組計劃。

We've also learned since the beginning of the pandemic that many business activities can be performed successfully remotely And while T&E costs may rise as compared to prior [2] years, we're going to prioritize customer-facing travel we needed. And of course, we have that naturally. We have some naturally occurring expense levers such as the incentive compensation accruals, which are obviously going to flex based on our actual performance as compared to the targets we set at the beginning of the year.

自大流行開始以來，我們還了解到，許多業務活動可以遠程成功執行。雖然與前 [2] 年相比，T&E 成本可能會上升，但我們將優先考慮我們需要的面向客戶的旅行。當然，我們自然而然地擁有它。我們有一些自然發生的費用槓桿，例如應計激勵薪酬，與我們在年初設定的目標相比，這些費用顯然會根據我們的實際表現進行調整。

Our next question will come from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的托尼卡普蘭。

Let's throw one in on MA. So it looked like you lowered the guide, but only because of FX. So essentially kept it in line there, but the ARR, you're expecting to accelerate into the end of the year. So I thought that, that was actually a really positive data point.

讓我們把一個放在 MA 上。所以看起來你降低了指南，但只是因為 FX。所以基本上保持一致，但 ARR，你預計會加速到今年年底。所以我認為，這實際上是一個非常積極的數據點。

Maybe just give some color on which what's driving that. And is the environment bill somewhat positive on that side? Would you expect that becomes more challenged, but you can outperform the environment? Or would you expect that, that just continues to do well because of clients wanting risk solutions, et cetera?

也許只是給出一些驅動因素的顏色。環境法案在這方面是否有些積極？你會期望這會變得更具挑戰性，但你可以超越環境嗎？或者您是否會期望，由於客戶需要風險解決方案等，它會繼續表現良好？

Toni, it's Rob, and thanks for kind of peeling back the onion there. So I think you got the right message, the right takeaway on MA. The results are really in line with our prior expectations on a constant dollar basis. As we mentioned, FX was a significant headwind this quarter, reduced growth by 5 percentage points. And on an organic constant dollar basis, revenue grew at 8%.

Toni，我是 Rob，謝謝你幫我剝洋蔥。所以我認為你得到了正確的信息，關於 MA 的正確外賣。結果確實符合我們之前以固定美元為基礎的預期。正如我們所提到的，外匯是本季度的一個重大不利因素，使增長率降低了 5 個百分點。在有機不變美元的基礎上，收入增長了 8%。

And our guide for the full year incorporated a little bit of the seasonality that you're seeing in the quarter-to-quarter results in MA, and that relates mostly to our banking and insurance businesses within Decision Solutions. And I think you hit on it. The key here is that we are still confident in achieving our full year revenue guidance, and we've adjusted that guide solely to account for the impact of FX.

我們的全年指南包含了您在馬薩諸塞州季度業績中看到的一些季節性因素，這主要與我們在決策解決方案中的銀行和保險業務有關。而且我認為你成功了。這裡的關鍵是我們仍然有信心實現全年收入指導，我們已經調整了該指導，僅考慮外彙的影響。

And I think very importantly, one reason we introduced ARR was to kind of look through revenue and the quarterly impact of revenue and be able to really focus on the growth in the base of recurring revenue. And we continue to feel confident about our ability to hit the low double-digit guide for ARR growth.

我認為非常重要的是，我們引入 ARR 的一個原因是為了查看收入和收入的季度影響，並能夠真正關注經常性收入基礎的增長。我們繼續對我們達到 ARR 增長低兩位數指導的能力充滿信心。

Let me give you a little bit of insight into what's driving that acceleration through the end of the year. We've talked about how we have realigned our entire global sales organization really to better organize around our customers, and we're continuing to invest to build out our capabilities across all parts of our sales organization to be able to both deepen the penetration of existing customers as we have broadened our product suite and also to bring in some new logos. And we believe that those investments are, in fact, showing some early results.

讓我給你一點洞察力，了解是什麼推動了今年年底的加速。我們已經討論了我們如何重新調整我們的整個全球銷售組織，以便更好地圍繞我們的客戶進行組織，我們將繼續投資以在我們銷售組織的各個部分建立我們的能力，以便能夠加深對現有客戶，因為我們擴大了產品套件並引入了一些新徽標。我們相信，這些投資實際上已經顯示出一些早期成果。

Our sales leading activity levels have gone up pretty meaningfully as a result. And our gross business per sales rep has been pretty consistent with our expectations. And that means that even as we have added salespeople, they have remained as productive on a per head basis as before. So we're getting some good production out of the new sales team.

結果，我們的銷售領先活動水平顯著提高。我們每個銷售代表的總業務量與我們的預期非常一致。這意味著，即使我們增加了銷售人員，他們的人均生產力仍然與以前一樣。因此，我們從新的銷售團隊中獲得了一些不錯的產品。

The second thing is through the first half of the year, we've had some good price capture compared to our historical level. And that really is due to the enhancements that we continue to make to our products and really enhances that value proposition and our ability to capture price. A good example of some of the stuff we're doing, and you're going to see in coming quarters is around CreditView, where we're continuing to redesign that web -- our flagship web credit research platform, we're overhauling the look and feel. We're going to have come out with considerably greater functionality and content and that will be a good opportunity for us to price for value.

第二件事是在今年上半年，與我們的歷史水平相比，我們已經獲得了一些不錯的價格捕獲。這確實是由於我們繼續對我們的產品進行改進，並真正增強了價值主張和我們獲取價格的能力。我們正在做的一些事情的一個很好的例子，你將在接下來的幾個季度看到 CreditView，我們將繼續重新設計該網絡——我們的旗艦網絡信用研究平台，我們正在徹底改革外觀和感覺。我們將推出更強大的功能和內容，這將是我們為價值定價的好機會。

And the last thing, Toni, I would say that's giving us confidence, just obviously, we monitor our sales pipeline very, very closely. And the sales pipeline right now is very strong and gives us confidence in our ability to hit that ARR number for the year.

最後一件事，托尼，我想說這給了我們信心，很明顯，我們非常非常密切地監控我們的銷售渠道。現在的銷售渠道非常強大，讓我們對今年達到 ARR 數字的能力充滿信心。

Perfect. That sounds great. And then for the follow-up, Mark, I know you lowered the free cash flow guide about 20% at the midpoint versus prior midpoint. I know MIS probably the biggest piece of that. But is there anything else that you want to call out in terms of lower free cash flow guide? And then also in terms of use of capital outlook on sort of buyback, you lowered that as well.

完美的。聽起來不錯。然後對於後續行動，馬克，我知道你在中點與之前的中點相比，將自由現金流指南降低了約 20%。我知道 MIS 可能是其中最大的一部分。但是，就較低的自由現金流指南而言，您還有什麼要說的嗎？然後在某種回購中使用資本前景方面，你也降低了它。

Toni, let me take the free cash flow question and then separately, I'll address the share repurchases and the buyback guidance, perhaps another question which comes up a little bit later on. In terms of free cash flow guide for the year, what we wanted to do is to reflect the year-to-date global free cash flow of $628 million, and that was down around 49%, primarily on, to your point, the lower net income that's been driven by the reduction in MIS revenue due to significantly curtailed issuance.

托尼，讓我來談談自由現金流的問題，然後我將分別討論股票回購和回購指導，也許稍後會出現另一個問題。就今年的自由現金流指南而言，我們想做的是反映年初至今 6.28 億美元的全球自由現金流，下降了約 49%，主要是在你看來，較低的由於發行量大幅減少，MIS 收入減少，從而推動了淨收入。

In addition, this quarter, we also had a tax-related working capital headwind, the impact of which is expected to partially reverse out later this year, and that's reflected in our updated full year outlook. The midpoint of our revised full year 2022 free cash flow guidance of $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion does imply a free cash flow to U.S. GAAP net income conversion ratio, that's approximately 100%, and that's very much in line with our historical conversion levels. And that means that our refreshed 2022 guidance at the midpoint now assumes both adjusted diluted EPS and free cash flow will decrease in the low 20% range.

此外，本季度，我們還遇到了與稅收相關的營運資金逆風，預計其影響將在今年晚些時候部分逆轉，這反映在我們更新的全年展望中。我們修訂後的 2022 年全年自由現金流指引的中點為 14 億美元至 16 億美元，這確實意味著自由現金流與美國 GAAP 淨收入的轉換比率約為 100%，這與我們的歷史轉換水平非常一致。這意味著我們在中點更新的 2022 年指導現在假設調整後的攤薄每股收益和自由現金流都將在 20% 的低位範圍內下降。

And our next question comes from Ashish Sabadra with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Ashish Sabadra。

Just wanted to drill down further on the issuance side. I was wondering if you could talk about the pipeline for new issuers. And also, if you could just talk about like what percentage of the issuance right now is really coming from new issuance versus refinancing of existing debt. And any thoughts around how that could trend for the rest of the year and exiting the year?

只是想在發行方面進一步深入。我想知道你是否可以談談新發行人的管道。而且，如果你能談談現在發行的百分比是真正來自新發行還是現有債務的再融資。以及關於今年剩餘時間和退出這一年的趨勢有何想法？

Ashish, maybe let me talk a little bit about what's going on with our first-time mandates, and these are new issuers into the market. And then I'll give you a little bit of color on what's going on currently in the market, kind of what we're seeing. But we revised our range for first-time mandates down from, it was $850 million to $950 million in the last quarter. We've revised that down to $700 million to $800 million for the year. And that's because we had another slower quarter. U.S. first-time mandate activity remained muted, I would say. But it's pretty highly correlated to leverage finance issuance. That's where most of your first-time issuers into the market come from.

Ashish，也許讓我談談我們首次授權的情況，這些都是新發行人進入市場。然後我會給你一些關於目前市場上正在發生的事情的顏色，就像我們所看到的那樣。但我們將首次授權的範圍從上一季度的 8.5 億美元下調至 9.5 億美元。我們已將這一年的金額下調至 7 億至 8 億美元。那是因為我們有另一個較慢的季度。我想說，美國的首次授權活動仍然保持沉默。但它與槓桿融資的發行高度相關。這就是大多數首次進入市場的發行人的來源。

We expect the activity levels that we see in the first half, kind of like our broader issuance outlook to remain pretty steady in the second half of the year. I think September will be a key month. We'll be post earnings blackout post summer, and we'll see if there's some issuers that have been sitting on the sidelines that choose to hit the market at that point.

我們預計上半年的活動水平，有點像我們更廣泛的發行前景，將在下半年保持相當穩定。我認為九月將是一個關鍵的月份。我們將在夏季後發布收益停電，我們將看看是否有一些發行人一直在觀望，選擇在那個時候進入市場。

It's interesting, we have something like a little over 400 first-time mandates that we signed through the first half of the year, but not all of those are coming to market. And in fact, just to give you -- put a little meat on the bones there. So far this year, and excluding APAC, about 40% of the new mandates that we've signed have not actually printed. And that was -- that number was something like 10% in the first half of 2021.

有趣的是，我們在今年上半年簽署了大約 400 多份首次授權，但並非所有這些都進入市場。事實上，只是為了給你——在骨頭上放一點肉。今年到目前為止，不包括亞太地區，我們簽署的新授權書中約有 40% 尚未實際印製。那就是 - 這個數字在 2021 年上半年約為 10%。

To give you a sense, it typically takes something like 2 months from the time that we executed an engagement and the issuer actually issued a bond. That time frame has more than doubled. So in terms of what kind of market do we have right now, obviously, it is still a very challenging environment. The sentiment changes from week to week and even day to day. I would say at the very moment, there's a positive tone in the markets. This week, investment-grade issuance has had its best week in something like 12 weeks. The issuance is generally dominated by financial institutions, but that may change as we kind of get through blackouts here.

讓您了解一下，從我們執行約定到發行人實際發行債券通常需要大約 2 個月的時間。這個時間框架增加了一倍多。因此，就我們現在擁有什麼樣的市場而言，顯然，這仍然是一個非常具有挑戰性的環境。情緒每週甚至每天都在變化。我想說的是，目前市場有積極的基調。本週，投資級發行經歷了大約 12 週以來最好的一周。發行通常由金融機構主導，但隨著我們在這裡經歷停電，這種情況可能會發生變化。

High yield and leveraged loans has still been pretty light. We have seen a few high-yield deals hit the market earlier this week. The secondary market firmed up towards the end of last week. Spreads came in, I don't know, something like 40 basis points or so. But in general, it's still a pretty quiet market for leveraged finance.

高收益和槓桿貸款仍然相當少。本週早些時候，我們已經看到一些高收益交易進入市場。二級市場在上週末走強。點差進來了，我不知道，大概是 40 個基點左右。但總的來說，對於槓桿融資來說，它仍然是一個相當安靜的市場。

Maybe, Ashish, just to add a little bit on to Rob's remarks. We do anticipate the absolute dollar MIS transaction revenue to be slightly lower in the second half of the year vis-a-vis the first half of the year, and that would align to the historical issuance patterns we've seen over the prior 5 years. We're, on average, the second half of the year has traditionally contributed about 47% of the full year's transaction-based revenue. And furthermore, we expect that total MIS revenue to return to more of that sort of [2-type] patent consistent with what we've observed prior to the pandemic, and that will cause a little bit of margin headwinds in the third quarter.

也許，Ashish，只是為了補充一點 Rob 的言論。我們確實預計下半年的絕對美元 MIS 交易收入將略低於上半年，這與我們在過去 5 年看到的歷史發行模式一致.平均而言，今年下半年傳統上貢獻了全年基於交易的收入的 47% 左右。此外，我們預計 MIS 的總收入將恢復到與我們在大流行之前觀察到的情況一致的更多那種 [2-type] 專利，這將在第三季度造成一些利潤逆風。

That's very helpful color. And then my second question was just going to be on the expense bridge. This is on Slide 23, where you've provided the expense bridge. I didn't see incentive comp broken out as it was broken out in the first quarter. I was wondering if you could provide any color on how we should think about incentive comps decline in '22 versus '21?

這是非常有用的顏色。然後我的第二個問題是關於費用橋的。這是在幻燈片 23 上，您提供了費用橋。我沒有看到激勵補償在第一季度被打破。我想知道您是否可以提供任何顏色來說明我們應該如何看待 22 年與 21 年的激勵補償下降？

Absolutely. So maybe let me spend a minute on expense bridge and then I'll get to the direct question around incentive compensation. So for the full year 2022 operating expense guidance, we are reaffirming high single-digit percent growth. And that includes $31 million in accrued expenses as part of the 2022-2023 geolocation restructuring program that we announced this morning.

絕對地。所以也許讓我花一分鐘的時間來討論一下費用橋，然後我會直接討論關於激勵補償的問題。因此，對於 2022 年全年的運營費用指導，我們重申了高個位數百分比的增長。其中包括我們今天上午宣布的 2022-2023 年地理定位重組計劃的一部分的 3100 萬美元應計費用。

If we excluded that restructuring charge, our outlook for full year operating expenses would have been in the mid-single-digit percent growth range. And so specifically for full year 2022, you could see anticipated expense growth of approximately 8 percentage points related to acquisitions completed in the last 12 months, primarily RMS, approximately 1 percentage point related to the restructuring program I just mentioned.

如果我們排除重組費用，我們對全年運營費用的展望將處於中個位數百分比的增長范圍內。因此，特別是對於 2022 年全年，您可以看到與過去 12 個月完成的收購（主要是 RMS）相關的預期支出增長約 8 個百分點，與我剛才提到的重組計劃相關的支出增長約 1 個百分點。

And then operating growth and investments net of ongoing cost efficiencies, 6 percentage points and then lower incentive comp, minus 6 percentage points, so effectively operating growth in investments being approximately flat. And then, of course, a partial offset from favorable movement in foreign exchange rates, so 2 more points.

然後是運營增長和投資，扣除持續成本效率，降低 6 個百分點，然後降低激勵補償，負 6 個百分點，因此投資的有效運營增長大致持平。然後，當然，部分抵消了外匯匯率的有利變動，因此再增加 2 個點。

The outlook also then implies year-to-go operating expense growth of a decline in the low single-digit percent range. And while we don't normally provide expense growth forecast by segment, given that we still expect the majority of our 2022 strategic investments to support future MA revenue opportunities, the year-to-go segment implied guidance would be a high single-digit percent decline and a mid-single-digit percent increase for MIS and MA, respectively.

展望還意味著未來的運營費用增長將下降到個位數的低百分比範圍內。雖然我們通常不會按細分市場提供費用增長預測，但鑑於我們仍預計我們 2022 年的大部分戰略投資將支持未來 MA 的收入機會，未來細分市場的隱含指導將是個位數的高百分比MIS 和 MA 分別下降和中個位數百分比增長。

And then on to your Pacific question, the second quarter and year-to-date incentive compensation accrual was approximately $50 million and approximately $114 million, respectively. And for full year 2022, we expect incentive compensation to be around $240 million, including RMS.

然後關於您的太平洋問題，第二季度和年初至今的激勵薪酬應計分別約為 5000 萬美元和約 1.14 億美元。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計激勵薪酬約為 2.4 億美元，包括 RMS。

And our next question will come from Alex Kramm with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Alex Kramm。

Just, of course, coming back to MIS for a second here. You multiple times have talked about the normalization that you expect to occur. So just wondering if you look out a little bit more than just the next couple of quarters, how much confidence we should be having? I guess what I'm asking specifically is in prior periods of issuance declines, and that's obviously what we're looking for 30% down, we've seen a pretty big snapback and I think a lot of people expect that to happen again next year.

只是，當然，在這裡回到 MIS 一秒鐘。您多次談到您期望發生的正常化。所以只是想知道如果你在接下來的幾個季度多看一點，我們應該有多少信心？我想我要特別問的是在發行量下降之前的時期，這顯然是我們正在尋找的 30% 下降，我們已經看到了相當大的反彈，我認為很多人預計接下來會再次發生這種情況年。

So I'm just wondering how much confidence we should be having in that. Like the refinancing walls actually don't really start increasing for a couple of years. Obviously, M&A has been down year-to-date. And then lastly, with higher rates and higher spreads, the kind of opportunistic financing is still pretty anemic. So just wondering how much confidence you have that we get that snap back next year or if it could actually take a couple of years for that normalization to play out?

所以我只是想知道我們應該對此有多大的信心。就像再融資牆實際上並沒有真正開始增加幾年。顯然，今年迄今為止的併購活動一直在下降。最後，隨著更高的利率和更高的利差，這種機會主義融資仍然相當貧乏。所以只是想知道你對我們明年恢復這種快速反應有多大信心，或者這種正常化實際上可能需要幾年時間才能發揮作用？

Yes. Alex, maybe a couple of things. Again, I'm just going to give you a few kind of data points and perspectives just to try to triangulate around this. And we kind of looked at issuance over the last 10 years and then compare that to our current outlook for 2022.

是的。亞歷克斯，也許有幾件事。再一次，我只是要給你一些數據點和觀點，只是為了嘗試圍繞這個進行三角測量。我們研究了過去 10 年的發行量，然後將其與我們目前對 2022 年的展望進行比較。

And just to give you a sense of kind of what we're dealing with, the last time that overall corporate finance issuance was below this current outlook was 10 years ago. It was back in 2012. And when you look at our -- at average issue over that 10-year period and you exclude the 2020 and 2021 periods, our outlook for investment grade is about 10% to 15% below that 10-year average.

為了讓您了解我們正在處理的問題，上一次整體公司融資發行低於當前前景是在 10 年前。早在 2012 年。當您查看我們的 10 年期間的平均問題並排除 2020 年和 2021 年期間，我們對投資級別的前景比 10 年平均水平低 10% 至 15% .

Looking at leverage finance, our outlook implies issuance probably 5, 6 percent above that 10-year average. So high yield -- the high-yield market is very quiet. In fact, we're seeing levels of issuance that are even below 2009. So an important component to our overall kind of outlook is leveraged loans. I think as I'm going to tie that on then to thinking about how to triangulate that then to our medium-term outlook because we continue to feel good about that medium-term outlook.

在槓桿融資方面，我們的展望暗示發行量可能比 10 年平均水平高出 5% 到 6%。如此高收益——高收益市場非常安靜。事實上，我們看到的發行水平甚至低於 2009 年。因此，我們整體前景的一個重要組成部分是槓桿貸款。我認為，我將把它與考慮如何將其與我們的中期前景聯繫起來，因為我們繼續對中期前景感覺良好。

So you've heard me talk about issuance over this kind of 10-year period. And whether you look at overall issuance or just fundamental issuance, so either overall, including structure or just fundamental, it's grown roughly in line with GDP growth, obviously, plus or minus 1% or 2% and GDP growth grew at something like 3% over that period. Obviously, there have been puts and takes to that on any given year.

所以你聽我談論過這種 10 年期間的發行。無論你看整體發行還是只看基本發行，所以無論是整體，包括結構還是基本面，它的增長都與 GDP 增長大致一致，很明顯，正負 1% 或 2%，GDP 增長大約 3%在那個時期。顯然，在任何給定的年份都有放量和放量。

The asset class with the fastest issuance growth has been leveraged loans over that period of time. And that contributed to a favorable mix over the time period. You hear us talk about it on these calls all the time. So now let me go to medium term. And if you think about the building blocks that we always talk about, GDP growth, pricing, recurring revenue growth from first-time mandates and mix, if we've got modest economic growth, which is the outlook, I think, kind of in the near to medium term, let's call it low single digits, then translate that to issuance growth and low single digits is probably a reasonable assumption based on history, like I was just talking about.

在此期間，發行增長最快的資產類別是槓桿貸款。這有助於在這段時間內形成有利的組合。您一直聽到我們在這些電話中談論它。所以現在讓我進入中期。如果你想想我們經常談論的基石，GDP 增長、定價、首次授權和混合帶來的經常性收入增長，如果我們有適度的經濟增長，我認為這就是前景近期到中期，我們稱之為低個位數，然後將其轉化為發行增長，低個位數可能是基於歷史的合理假設，就像我剛才所說的那樣。

You got a modest benefit from ongoing disintermediation. And rather than mix as a tailwind, I'd probably assume it's either neutral to a slight headwind. So if we're in a recessionary scenario, we're probably at the low end of that low to mid-single-digit range. And if we're experiencing recovery and expansion, we expect to be at the higher end of that range.

你從持續的去中介化中獲得了適度的好處。而不是混合作為順風，我可能會假設它對輕微的逆風是中性的。因此，如果我們處於經濟衰退的情景中，我們可能處於該低到中個位數範圍的低端。如果我們正在經歷復甦和擴張，我們預計將處於該範圍的高端。

So Alex, hopefully, that gives you a little bit of a sense of why we continue to be comfortable with that kind of medium-term guidance. And I know we got a lot of questions about it when we first put it out into the market, but I think you can kind of see where we're coming from here.

因此，Alex 希望這能讓您對我們為什麼繼續接受這種中期指導感到滿意。我知道當我們第一次將它推向市場時我們有很多關於它的問題，但我認為你可以看到我們從這裡來的地方。

No, no, this is helpful. And I appreciate, it's very uncertain times these days. Just maybe a quick one then, and apologies if that has come up already, on the Moody's Analytics side. It seems like clearly a lot of mission-critical products, a lot of demand because you're expanding into high-growth areas.

不，不，這很有幫助。我很感激，這些天是非常不確定的時期。可能只是一個快速的，如果已經出現，在穆迪分析方面道歉。顯然有很多關鍵任務產品，大量需求，因為您正在向高增長領域擴張。

But just any areas that I should be aware of as it comes to potential pockets of risks, things that maybe clients can do without in a tougher selling environment or any areas where maybe sales cycles are lengthening at all? Or is it really strong across the board?

但是，當涉及到潛在的風險時，我應該注意的任何領域，在更艱難的銷售環境中客戶可能不需要做的事情，或者銷售週期可能正在延長的任何領域？還是它真的全面強大？

Alex, not really. We continue to have some very strong retention rates, and there's nothing I could point to there.

亞歷克斯，不是真的。我們繼續有一些非常高的保留率，我沒有什麼可以指出的。

Our next question comes from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman。

I wanted to ask about Decision Solutions. Rob, you mentioned some seasonality of a specific product in that area. And I guess you were talking about it here in the second quarter because your Decision Solutions organic revenue growth year-over-year, substantially decelerated to 8%.

我想問一下決策解決方案。 Rob，您提到了該地區特定產品的一些季節性。我猜你是在第二季度在這裡談論它，因為你的決策解決方案有機收入同比增長，大幅減速至 8%。

So if you could just tell us about the banking product that kind of drove that growth deceleration in the second quarter. And of course, you can imagine the other side of that question is, will that seasonality of that banking product benefit third quarter organic revenue growth for Decision Solutions?

因此，如果您能告訴我們有關在第二季度推動增長減速的銀行產品。當然，您可以想像這個問題的另一面是，該銀行產品的季節性是否有利於決策解決方案第三季度的有機收入增長？

Yes, Andrew. Let me first start by just reminding everybody about the really kind of the core components of what's in Decision Solutions. And the largest business collectively by revenue is insurance, when we look at kind of our legacy insurance business in RMS. Second is banking. And third is KYC. Then we've got a few other smaller businesses like structured finance and so on. So we had very good growth across the entire subsegment Decision Solutions, particularly KYC.

是的，安德魯。首先讓我提醒大家關於決策解決方案的真正核心組件。當我們查看 RMS 的傳統保險業務時，按收入計算的最大業務是保險。二是銀行業。第三是KYC。然後我們還有其他一些較小的業務，例如結構性融資等。因此，我們在整個決策解決方案子細分市場（尤其是 KYC）中實現了非常好的增長。

And I think the best thing to do is to look at ARR here because there's been a little bit of revenue lumpiness in the first half of the year. When I referred to seasonality, that's really what I was referring to. So let me just kind of take some of the key numbers. As you said, Andrew, organic constant dollar revenue, 8% in the quarter, 16% last quarter. However, the key number here is organic ARR grew at 11% for Decision Solutions, and that's the same as last quarter. So there's the same altitude of kind of sales and building the book of recurring revenue. There's no change there.

而且我認為最好的辦法是在這裡查看 ARR，因為上半年的收入有點不穩定。當我提到季節性時，這就是我所指的。所以讓我來看看一些關鍵數字。正如你所說，安德魯，有機不變的美元收入，本季度為 8%，上一季度為 16%。然而，這裡的關鍵數字是決策解決方案的有機 ARR 增長了 11%，這與上一季度相同。因此，銷售和建立經常性收入的賬簿具有相同的高度。那裡沒有變化。

KYC continues to be kind of a high flyer, growing in the kind of mid-20s percent on an organic constant dollar basis. So where does the lumpiness come from? Both our insurance and banking businesses have a mix still of on-prem and SaaS solutions. And you've heard us talk about we're working to migrate more of the portfolio to SaaS. That's true, but we still have a suite of on-prem products that introduce an element of lumpiness given some aspects of revenue recognition. And that was the case for the first half of this year but we accounted for that as we thought about our full year guide.

KYC 仍然是一種成功的傳單，在有機不變的美元基礎上以 20% 左右的速度增長。那麼腫塊是從哪裡來的呢？我們的保險和銀行業務仍然混合使用本地和 SaaS 解決方案。您已經聽到我們談論我們正在努力將更多的產品組合遷移到 SaaS。的確如此，但考慮到收入確認的某些方面，我們仍然有一套本地產品，這些產品引入了塊狀元素。今年上半年就是這種情況，但我們在考慮全年指南時考慮了這一點。

So insurance, RMS, you heard me say on track. Our insurance, our legacy insurance business growing very nicely. And banking, there, we're seeing some very nice growth as well. I'm going to touch on that in just a second in terms of what is driving that. We've got 3 primary areas that we serve for banks: lending, risk management, finance and planning. We're continuing to really build out our SaaS offerings. That is the highest growth part of our banking business. It allows us to really deliver a lot more functionality and usability to our customers. That then drives a lot more usage from our customers and that supports the overall kind of value proposition and pricing opportunity for us.

所以保險，RMS，你聽到我說在軌道上。我們的保險，我們的傳統保險業務發展得非常好。在銀行業，我們也看到了一些非常不錯的增長。就驅動它的原因而言，我將在幾秒鐘內談到這一點。我們為銀行服務的主要領域有 3 個：貸款、風險管理、財務和規劃。我們將繼續真正構建我們的 SaaS 產品。這是我們銀行業務增長最快的部分。它使我們能夠真正為我們的客戶提供更多的功能和可用性。然後，這會推動我們客戶的更多使用，並支持我們的整體價值主張和定價機會。

One area I would maybe call out, Andrew, is commercial real estate. You've heard us talk a lot about the investments that we've been making there. Obviously, commercial real estate is very important to our banking customers. And we recently signed a strategic partnership with one of the largest commercial real estate lenders in the country to kind of codevelop a commercial real estate lending solution. We're very excited about doing that and bringing together all of our commercial real estate data and analytics with our cloud-based loan origination tools to really help this bank and other banks with a more holistic view to streamline their processes.

安德魯，我可能會提到的一個領域是商業房地產。您已經聽到我們談論了很多關於我們在那裡進行的投資的事情。顯然，商業地產對我們的銀行客戶來說非常重要。我們最近與該國最大的商業房地產貸款機構之一簽署了戰略合作夥伴關係，共同開發商業房地產貸款解決方案。我們很高興能做到這一點，並將我們所有的商業房地產數據和分析與我們基於雲的貸款發放工具結合起來，以更全面地幫助這家銀行和其他銀行簡化流程。

That's one example, but I'm going to come back to the key takeaway here for Decision Solutions because we've had some volatility in the revenue from quarter-to-quarter is look at ARR. And ARR for Decision Solutions is 11% in the quarter, same as last quarter. So no change to the very good growth we're seeing across the entire Decision Solutions portfolio.

這是一個例子，但我將回到決策解決方案的關鍵點，因為我們在季度與季度之間的收入出現了一些波動，看看 ARR。本季度決策解決方案的 ARR 為 11%，與上一季度相同。因此，我們在整個決策解決方案組合中看到的非常好的增長沒有改變。

Right. Rob, there was a piece at the end. Do you expect the seasonality to benefit third quarter for Decision Solutions organic revenues?

正確的。羅布，最後有一塊。您是否預計季節性因素會使第三季度的決策解決方案有機收入受益？

I think what we're likely to see in third quarter is pretty similar to what we've seen in the second quarter and then an acceleration at the end of the year in the fourth quarter.

我認為我們可能在第三季度看到的情況與我們在第二季度看到的情況非常相似，然後在第四季度年底加速。

And our next question will come from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Andrew Nicholas 和 William Blair。

First one is just kind of on your own M&A appetite. Obviously, a challenging environment or at least a choppy one. Do current economic conditions or perhaps some conservatism from a growth perspective heading into the end of the year impact how you're thinking about doing deals? I know you already kind of lowered share repurchase expectations due to the free cash flow, presumably the free cash flow decline, but wondering how that impacts your outlook for M&A as well.

第一個只是你自己的併購胃口。顯然，這是一個具有挑戰性的環境，或者至少是一個波濤洶湧的環境。當前的經濟狀況，或者從增長的角度來看，到年底的一些保守主義是否會影響你對交易的看法？我知道你已經因為自由現金流降低了股票回購預期，大概是自由現金流下降，但想知道這也會如何影響你的併購前景。

I'm going to spend just a minute talking about share repurchases, and then I'm going to turn it over to Rob to touch on the M&A component of your question. So perhaps most importantly, how capital planning and allocation strategy remains unchanged. And this year, we are still planning to return approximately $1.5 billion to our stockholders or approximately 100% of our projected 2022 free cash flow at the midpoint of our guidance range. As you can appreciate, global economic conditions have significantly weakened relative to our first quarter outlook.

我將花一點時間談論股票回購，然後我將把它交給 Rob 來談談你問題的併購部分。所以也許最重要的是，資本規劃和分配策略如何保持不變。今年，我們仍計劃向我們的股東返還大約 15 億美元，或者是我們預計的 2022 年自由現金流的大約 100%，處於我們指導範圍的中點。如您所見，與我們的第一季度展望相比，全球經濟狀況已顯著減弱。

And we spoke about several of those factors, but primarily the uncertainty around the duration and severity of the conflict in Ukraine as well as heightened inflationary risks. And although we ultimately view these market conditions and the disruption to be cyclical, we are being very thoughtful about our leverage and liquidity levels. And we're going to do that in order to ensure that we maintain a strong balance sheet and an equally important financial flexibility.

我們談到了其中幾個因素，但主要是圍繞烏克蘭衝突持續時間和嚴重程度的不確定性以及通脹風險加劇。儘管我們最終認為這些市場狀況和中斷是周期性的，但我們對我們的槓桿和流動性水平非常謹慎。我們將這樣做，以確保我們保持強大的資產負債表和同樣重要的財務靈活性。

And as a result, we have lowered our guidance for full year 2022 share repos to approximately $1 billion. And that means we've adopted a slightly more conservative short-term approach to capital management with the philosophy of preserving financial firepower to be able to take advantage of market conditions if and when they arise.

因此，我們將 2022 年全年股票回購的指引下調至約 10 億美元。這意味著我們對資本管理採取了一種稍微保守的短期方法，其理念是保留金融火力，以便能夠在市場條件出現時利用它們。

Yes. And let me add to that. So we had done a number of bolt-on acquisitions over the last, let's call it, 18 months. We've been really focused on executing on that portfolio of acquisitions and integrating and getting the real business value out of those acquisitions. In fact, we track our performance against our acquisition cases and we review them every quarter. And we included in the slides kind of our performance on some of our larger acquisitions to date, and we feel very good about that.

是的。讓我補充一下。因此，我們在過去的 18 個月裡進行了許多補強收購。我們一直專注於執行該收購組合，整合併從這些收購中獲得真正的商業價值。事實上，我們會根據我們的收購案例跟踪我們的績效，並且我們每季度都會對其進行審查。我們在幻燈片中包含了我們迄今為止在一些大型收購中的表現，我們對此感覺非常好。

It's interesting because I ran the corporate development team for years. And in these periods of market dislocation, the initial instinct is to think, oh, well, this has got to be a buyer's market. Valuations are down so sharply. But like we're talking about what's the duration of this kind of correction, the same thing the sellers are thinking about. This is a 6-, 9-, 12-month correction.

這很有趣，因為我管理公司開發團隊多年。在這些市場錯位的時期，最初的本能是想，哦，好吧，這一定是買方市場。估值下降如此之快。但是就像我們在談論這種修正的持續時間一樣，賣家也在考慮同樣的事情。這是一個 6 個月、9 個月、12 個月的修正。

I remember when we were talking about multiples at one level 12 months ago, and so I'm not a seller. So you tend to see oftentimes some disconnects between valuation expectations between buyers and sellers in these markets. If you've got companies that have very leveraged capital structures, eventually that may force them to do something. That's often not the case in our sector.

我記得 12 個月前我們在一個級別談論倍數，所以我不是賣家。因此，您往往會經常看到這些市場中買賣雙方的估值預期之間存在一些脫節。如果您的公司擁有非常槓桿化的資本結構，最終可能會迫使他們做某事。在我們的行業中，情況往往並非如此。

And so I guess the last thing I would say is, like Mark said, we've got plenty of financial firepower. We have a very clear view of the kinds of things that our customers want and need from us and what would be additive to our offerings for our customers. And so we're always on the lookout, but I'd say we're going to continue to be disciplined in this market and continue to extract the value out of the things that we have invested in over the last 12 to 18 months.

所以我想我要說的最後一件事是，就像馬克所說的那樣，我們有足夠的財務火力。我們非常清楚地了解客戶想要和需要我們提供的東西，以及我們為客戶提供的產品的附加功能。所以我們一直在尋找，但我想說我們將繼續在這個市場上保持自律，並繼續從我們在過去 12 到 18 個月投資的東西中提取價值。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe a follow-up, Rob, to a point that you made on kind of the success of some of your acquisitions of late. Obviously, on Slide 22, you note mid-30s type growth for your screening capabilities and being ahead of plan there in terms of $300 million of revenue in that business.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後可能是後續行動，Rob，你對最近一些收購的成功提出了一點看法。顯然，在幻燈片 22 上，您注意到您的篩選能力在 30 多歲時出現了增長，並且在該業務的 3 億美元收入方面超出了計劃。

I was wondering if you could spend a little bit more time on what exactly within that business is outperforming your initial expectations. Obviously, the market is a strong one, but if there's anything from an execution standpoint or a product offering standpoint that's really resonating with customers, would love to hear it.

我想知道您是否可以花更多的時間來研究該業務中的哪些方面超出了您最初的預期。顯然，市場是一個強大的市場，但如果從執行的角度或產品提供的角度來看，有什麼能真正引起客戶的共鳴，我很想听聽。

Yes. So I think this is really about our KYC and again, I'm warning you, we may move on from that term because I think in some ways, it's a little too limiting for what it is. But very simply, we help customers assess, screen and monitor the individuals and companies that they do business with or that they want to do business with. And we do that by helping them know the entities and individuals, by understanding the risks associated with those third parties and also to execute at scale with some workflow tools. And you've heard us talk about the goal here is to be both more efficient and more effective.

是的。所以我認為這真的是關於我們的 KYC，我再次警告你，我們可能會從這個術語繼續前進，因為我認為在某些方面，它對於它的含義來說有點過於局限了。但很簡單，我們幫助客戶評估、篩选和監控與他們有業務往來或希望與之開展業務的個人和公司。我們通過幫助他們了解實體和個人、了解與這些第三方相關的風險以及使用一些工作流工具大規模執行來做到這一點。您已經聽到我們談論這裡的目標是提高效率和效率。

And so I talked about -- I mentioned at Investor Day, virtually every company around the world is working to better understand the risk profile of their customers, but also their suppliers and other counterparties. So there's a big opportunity here.

所以我談到了——我在投資者日提到，世界上幾乎每家公司都在努力更好地了解他們的客戶以及他們的供應商和其他交易對手的風險狀況。所以這裡有一個很大的機會。

And back to acquisitions and investments. In the fourth quarter of last year, we were pretty active in this space, and we made several acquisitions, and that has allowed us to begin assembling a much more comprehensive offering to support customers in their KYC workflow. That includes data and intelligence with really unmatched coverage on entities ownership in companies. It includes an element of workflow orchestration with highly configurable, integrated and automated KYC management and also the thought leadership and expertise that our customers expect of Moody's.

回到收購和投資。去年第四季度，我們在這個領域非常活躍，我們進行了幾次收購，這使我們能夠開始組裝更全面的產品來支持客戶的 KYC 工作流程。這包括對公司實體所有權具有無與倫比的覆蓋範圍的數據和情報。它包括一個工作流程編排元素，具有高度可配置、集成和自動化的 KYC 管理，以及我們的客戶期望穆迪的思想領導力和專業知識。

So we're pulling all of this together in a way, leveraging these world-class data sets, leveraging now this highly configurable workflow platform and all the expertise we have to not only help with, as I said, the traditional know your customer use cases, but now going even more broadly to know your counterparty, know your supplier and so on. So there's a lot to it. But that -- all of that -- back to your original question about RDC and what we had said, we knew that RDC was going to be a very important component of basically unlocking our opportunity here, and in fact, it has been.

因此，我們正在以某種方式將所有這些整合在一起，利用這些世界一流的數據集，利用現在這個高度可配置的工作流平台以及我們所擁有的所有專業知識，不僅如我所說，傳統的了解您的客戶使用案例，但現在更廣泛地了解您的交易對手，了解您的供應商等等。所以有很多事情要做。但是 - 所有這些 - 回到你最初關於 RDC 的問題和我們所說的，我們知道 RDC 將成為基本上釋放我們在這裡機會的一個非常重要的組成部分，事實上，它一直是。

Our next question comes from Faiza Alwy with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

So I wanted to just sort of, first, just put a finer point on your medium-term outlook for MIS. I think at the time when you put out that outlook, it was based off of 2021 issuance levels. And I just want to clarify, I think what I'm hearing you say is that we should think about the base now as more 2019. Like is that the right way to think about sort of normalized growth from here? Or am I misunderstanding what you're saying with respect to your medium-term outlook.

因此，我想首先對您對 MIS 的中期前景進行更詳細的說明。我認為在您發布該前景時，它是基於 2021 年的發行水平。我只是想澄清一下，我想我聽到你說的是，我們現在應該將基數視為更多 2019 年。就像從這裡開始考慮正常化增長的正確方法一樣嗎？還是我誤解了你所說的關於你的中期前景。

Yes. I think generally, I think that is right for some of the reasons that we've talked about on the call so far.

是的。我認為總的來說，我認為這是正確的，原因是我們迄今為止在電話會議上討論過的一些原因。

And maybe, too, I'd just add -- maybe just add one quick comment to Rob's remark is when we set our medium-term outlook for MIS revenue, in particular, we did build in a period of stress and economic stress into the model as the setting of our medium-term target really followed the point that you're making to historically strong years of issuance in 2020 and 2021.

也許，我也想補充一下——也許只是在 Rob 的評論中添加一個簡短的評論，那就是當我們設定 MIS 收入的中期展望時，特別是，我們確實在壓力和經濟壓力時期建立了作為我們設定中期目標的模型，確實遵循了您在 2020 年和 2021 年發行歷史上強勁年份的觀點。

Okay. Understood. And then just as a follow-up on the MA business. I heard you say that you haven't seen any type of slowing in any component of that business at this moment in time. I'm curious again on your medium-term outlook, which was in the teens. Like how resilient do you think that business is to the macro environment in general? Are you confident in those targets going forward?

好的。明白了。然後作為 MA 業務的後續行動。我聽說你說你目前還沒有看到該業務的任何組成部分出現任何類型的放緩。我對你十幾歲的中期前景再次感到好奇。比如，您認為企業對宏觀環境的總體彈性如何？您對未來的這些目標有信心嗎？

Yes. We've talked about this a bit before. It's a very resilient business. And I think the reason for that is that if you think about what we're helping our customers do. And we talked about again, it may sound a little bit trite. But in these periods of uncertainty, you've got customers who are trying to navigate all this uncertainty and they need expertise. They need data. They need analytics, they need expertise. And so they really, really value us in those periods.

是的。我們之前已經討論過這個問題。這是一個非常有彈性的業務。我認為這樣做的原因是，如果您考慮一下我們正在幫助客戶做什麼。我們又談了一遍，聽起來可能有點陳詞濫調。但在這些不確定的時期，您的客戶正試圖駕馭所有這些不確定性，他們需要專業知識。他們需要數據。他們需要分析，他們需要專業知識。所以他們真的，真的很重視那些時期的我們。

As we've continued to broaden out our offerings, you think of -- I talked about what are we doing in banking. It's loan origination, risk and finance, risk management and finance and planning. Those are not things that banks are turning off in periods of stress. Think about what's going on across our insurance portfolio. We've got models that are literally at the very heart of pricing property and casualty risk for insurers.

當我們繼續擴大我們的產品範圍時，你會想到——我談到了我們在銀行業所做的事情。它是貸款發放、風險和財務、風險管理以及財務和規劃。這些不是銀行在壓力時期關閉的東西。想想我們的保險組合中發生了什麼。我們的模型實際上是保險公司財產和傷亡風險定價的核心。

In our KYC business, you've got to make sure that you are not doing business with sanctioned entities or bad people, whether we're in good periods or bad periods. And so we just -- we have some very mission-critical workflows that we're serving for customers. And you can see from the retention rates, this stuff is very sticky. Once we're embedded into these workflows, the retention rates are very high. So that's why I tend to feel quite confident about the business even when we're in periods of kind of market stress.

在我們的 KYC 業務中，您必須確保您沒有與受制裁的實體或壞人做生意，無論我們處於好時期還是壞時期。所以我們只是 - 我們有一些非常關鍵的工作流程，我們正在為客戶服務。從留存率可以看出，這個東西很粘。一旦我們嵌入到這些工作流程中，保留率就會非常高。因此，即使我們處於市場壓力時期，我也傾向於對業務充滿信心。

And our next question will come from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

This is [Brendan] on for Manav. I just want to ask, and I apologize for going back to this but about the issuance. You talked about the $4.4 trillion. It's near the average if you exclude the pandemic. And I just want to be clear, it sounds like you're saying, is this more so a new base to grow off of based on your current guidance when we think about 2023? Or is there still -- or are you still thinking there's a bit of rebound that could happen? Or is that more so when the refinancing walls pick up beyond that?

這是 Manav 的 [Brendan]。我只是想問一下，我很抱歉回到這個問題，但關於發行。你談到了 4.4 萬億美元。如果排除大流行，它接近平均水平。我只想說清楚，聽起來你在說，當我們考慮 2023 年時，根據你目前的指導，這是否更像是一個新的基礎？或者仍然存在 - 或者您是否仍然認為可能會出現一些反彈？或者當再融資牆超出此範圍時更是如此？

Brendan, good to have you on the call. I mean, I think we have to acknowledge that the last 2 years were unusual years. And I think a lot of analysts and investors are looking back at long time series of issuance just like we are. And those last 2 years are, in fact, unusual. And so as we're kind of running our scenarios, we are kind of looking at historical patterns and what we think is reasonable growth on a go-forward basis.

布倫丹，很高興你接電話。我的意思是，我認為我們必須承認過去兩年是不尋常的年份。而且我認為很多分析師和投資者都像我們一樣回顧了長期的發行系列。事實上，過去的兩年是不尋常的。因此，當我們在運行我們的場景時，我們正在研究歷史模式以及我們認為未來的合理增長。

Okay. And then I just wanted to ask on the RMS and ESG, your businesses, how that's doing and any current trends? Any change in trends there in the last couple of months? And then after that, just anything on M&A opportunities in that space or if it's still pretty pricey.

好的。然後我只是想問一下 RMS 和 ESG、您的業務、目前情況如何以及當前的趨勢？在過去的幾個月裡，那裡的趨勢有什麼變化嗎？然後在那之後，關於該領域的併購機會，或者它仍然相當昂貴。

Yes. Let me start with RMS. So it's been almost a year, in fact, since we announced the acquisition, and we're having some, I've talked about it a little bit in the past, some very encouraging discussions with major insurers and reinsurers who really want to automate and digitize and integrate. And we're integrating across our product suite. We're co-creating new products.

是的。讓我從 RMS 開始。事實上，自從我們宣布收購以來，已經快一年了，我們有一些，我在過去談過一點，與真正想要自動化的主要保險公司和再保險公司進行了一些非常令人鼓舞的討論並數字化和集成。我們正在整合我們的產品套件。我們正在共同創造新產品。

Last quarter, I think I mentioned that we're mapping all of the properties in CMBS securities to RMS data. There are a few other areas where we're making some nice kind of early progress. There are a number of use cases for banks that we have identified and are starting to get some traction, helping banks, particularly around looking at physical risk in their portfolios. We're working on starting to do the same around transition risk.

上個季度，我想我提到我們正在將 CMBS 證券中的所有屬性映射到 RMS 數據。在其他一些領域，我們正在取得一些不錯的早期進展。我們已經確定了許多銀行用例，並開始獲得一些關注，幫助銀行，特別是在查看其投資組合中的物理風險方面。我們正在努力開始圍繞過渡風險做同樣的事情。

You mentioned ESG, Brendan. A lot of interest from insurers in integrating our ESG data and scores into RMS' underwriting solutions so that they can better understand the ESG profile of companies as they're underwriting and looking at their broader portfolio. We've already got several very nice customer wins there, and we are building a nice pipeline. And we're also -- we also have some very nice product enhancements. So as you may remember before we bought RMS, we had a small climate business.

你提到了 ESG，布倫丹。保險公司對將我們的 ESG 數據和評分集成到 RMS 的承保解決方案中非常感興趣，以便他們在承保和查看更廣泛的投資組合時更好地了解公司的 ESG 概況。我們已經在那裡贏得了幾個非常好的客戶，我們正在建立一個很好的管道。而且我們也 - 我們還有一些非常好的產品增強功能。因此，您可能還記得，在我們購買 RMS 之前，我們有一家小型氣候業務。

And now we're able to take those RMS models and data and to be able to kind of power some of those climate solutions, some of our climate on-demand solutions. We're also starting to pick up the pace around cross-selling conversations with insurers to help them around a broader range of risk assessment needs. So in general, feeling pretty good about what's going on across the company in terms of not just RMS, but also in terms of climate and ESG.

現在我們能夠利用這些 RMS 模型和數據，並能夠為其中一些氣候解決方案提供動力，我們的一些氣候按需解決方案。我們也開始加快與保險公司進行交叉銷售對話的步伐，以幫助他們解決更廣泛的風險評估需求。因此，總的來說，不僅在 RMS 方面，而且在氣候和 ESG 方面，對整個公司正在發生的事情感覺非常好。

Maybe just 2 quick quantification points there to help with the modeling. We still expect RMS' sales growth to be in the mid-single-digit percent range this year, and that's obviously up from the historical growth rate of the low single digits. And then for 2022, we're expecting to further increase our direct and attributable ESG-related revenue by about 20% to $34 million. And that's just a little bit lower than what we previously forecast, simply reflecting some weakness in the sustainable finance market.

也許那裡只有 2 個快速量化點來幫助建模。我們仍然預計 RMS 今年的銷售額增長將在中個位數百分比範圍內，這顯然高於低個位數的歷史增長率。然後到 2022 年，我們預計直接和應佔 ESG 相關收入將進一步增加約 20%，達到 3400 萬美元。這比我們之前的預測略低，只是反映了可持續金融市場的一些疲軟。

And just anything on M&A and ESG.

以及關於併購和 ESG 的任何內容。

It's a pretty fragmented market. There aren't a lot of kind of scale opportunities to move the needle out there. That was one reason that we really felt good about the acquisition of RMS because you look around and you think if climate analytics are important to your customers, how do you get that at scale? And how do you get that in a platform that you feel very, very confident in the analytics?

這是一個相當分散的市場。沒有很多規模化的機會可以將針移到那裡。這就是我們對收購 RMS 感到非常滿意的原因之一，因為您環顧四周，您認為如果氣候分析對您的客戶很重要，那麼您如何大規模地獲得它？您如何在一個您對分析非常非常有信心的平台中獲得它？

And it's a discussion we have with our Board at the time of the acquisition, they've been -- RMS has been serving the global insurance industry for over 30 years. So you know that those models are robust. So I guess I would say ESG is probably primarily an organic opportunity. We've been investing organically. We keep our ears to the ground. But like I said, not a lot of scale opportunities out there.

這是我們在收購時與我們的董事會進行的討論，他們一直 - RMS 已經為全球保險業服務了 30 多年。所以你知道這些模型是健壯的。所以我想我會說 ESG 可能主要是一個有機機會。我們一直在進行有機投資。我們把耳朵貼在地上。但就像我說的那樣，沒有很多規模化的機會。

And our next question will come from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber。

I know it's late. I'll just ask one. I was wondering if we can just get a little bit more color about what you're calling, I guess, the geolocation restructuring program, not only in terms of details, but I'm just curious why now, why not last quarter, why not next quarter, et cetera.

我知道已經晚了。我只問一個。我想知道我們是否可以對你所說的，我猜，地理定位重組計劃，不僅在細節方面，而且我只是好奇為什麼現在，為什麼不是上個季度，為什麼不是下個季度，等等。

The $75 million or up to $75 million geolocation restructuring program that we announced this morning was really focused on optimizing our existing real estate footprint, further utilizing our lower-cost locations where the requisite skills and talents exist. And really ensuring our focus and resources remain firmly allocated to our prioritized areas of opportunity.

我們今天早上宣布的 7500 萬美元或高達 7500 萬美元的地理定位重組計劃真正專注於優化我們現有的房地產足跡，進一步利用我們存在必要技能和人才的低成本地點。並真正確保我們的重點和資源仍然堅定地分配給我們優先考慮的機會領域。

Why now? I think the workforce of the future -- workplace of the future programs at Moody's are progressing well, and that has presented opportunities for us to be more efficient with use of the stockholder capital. And that means for the second quarter that we recorded that $31 million pretax restructuring charge, which is mostly related to personnel expenses. And then as we exit and cease -- use of our leased office space, which is expected to really begin in the fourth quarter of this year, and continue through the first half of 2023, you can expect us to reflect between another $25 million and $35 million in pretax restructuring charges in our financials.

為什麼現在？我認為未來的勞動力——穆迪未來計劃的工作場所進展順利，這為我們提供了更有效地利用股東資本的機會。這意味著我們在第二季度記錄了 3100 萬美元的稅前重組費用，這主要與人事費用有關。然後，隨著我們退出並停止使用我們租賃的辦公空間，預計將在今年第四季度真正開始，並持續到 2023 年上半年，您可以期望我們再考慮 2500 萬美元和我們財務中的稅前重組費用為 3500 萬美元。

For the $40 million to $60 million in annualized savings that we anticipate generating through these actions, the majority is going to be redeployed towards our strategic investments. And that's going to include further workplace enhancements, further employee retention initiatives. And the idea here is really to be able to create that financial flexibility to balance between profitability in the short term and then supporting business margin expansion over the long term.

對於我們預計通過這些行動產生的 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元的年度節省，大部分將重新部署到我們的戰略投資中。這將包括進一步的工作場所改進，進一步的員工保留計劃。這裡的想法實際上是能夠創造財務靈活性，以在短期盈利能力和長期支持業務利潤率擴張之間取得平衡。

And then finally, just as an aside, if the issuance downturn, is more severe and protracted than what we've modeled as our central case, you could expect us to take more aggressive actions around expenses in the future.

最後，順便說一句，如果發行低迷比我們作為中心案例建模的更嚴重和更持久，你可以期望我們在未來圍繞費用採取更積極的行動。

And our next question will come from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自於 Huber Research Partners 的 Craig Huber。

I wanted to get back to this, the Decision Solutions subsegment, if I could. Obviously, it was up 12% organically, excluding currency for 6 months, but only up 8% here in the second quarter year-over-year. You talked about the banking piece of that, if I heard you right, being the major reason for the slowdown, I guess. But wasn't that also an issue in the first quarter? And I guess I'm trying to figure out what's changed in the latest 3 months versus the first quarter to account for the slower growth there?

如果可以的話，我想回到決策解決方案子部分。顯然，它在 6 個月內不包括貨幣在內有機增長了 12%，但在第二季度同比僅增長 8%。你談到了銀行業務，如果我沒聽錯的話，我猜這是經濟放緩的主要原因。但這不是第一季度的問題嗎？我想我想弄清楚最近 3 個月與第一季度相比發生了什麼變化，以解釋那裡的增長放緩？

Yes. Craig, I guess maybe a couple of things. I would just flag and back to the both banking and insurance have some, as I said, both a mix of on-prem and SaaS solutions. And so you had some aspect of, I'll call it, kind of timing and revenue recognition that contributed to what was going on in the first quarter and as well in the second quarter. And so -- that's one reason that we kind of keep going back to ARR because it gives you the ability to kind of look through some of the kind of rev rec issues that you get from kind of this on-prem product suite that we still have. And so back to -- as I think about the underlying kind of health of that business, I'm looking at ARR and ARR for Decision Solutions, 11%, same as it was last quarter.

是的。克雷格，我想可能有幾件事。正如我所說，我只想指出銀行和保險業都有一些混合了本地和 SaaS 解決方案。所以你有一些方面，我稱之為時間和收入確認，這對第一季度和第二季度的情況做出了貢獻。所以 - 這就是我們繼續回到 ARR 的原因之一，因為它讓您能夠查看您從我們仍然存在的這種本地產品套件中獲得的一些 rev rec 問題有。所以回到 - 當我考慮該業務的潛在健康狀況時，我正在查看決策解決方案的 ARR 和 ARR，11%，與上一季度相同。

And my follow-up, please. On the credit research business you guys had for many years, obviously, maybe just touch on the growth rates that you're seeing. It seems like it's holding up quite well despite the very volatile markets. Maybe talk about pricing there, if you could, that's changed at all.

我的後續行動，請。對於你們多年來從事的信用研究業務，顯然，也許只是談談你們所看到的增長率。儘管市場非常動盪，但它似乎保持得很好。也許在那裡談論定價，如果可以的話，那完全改變了。

Yes. You're right. That continues to be a very nice business for us. I talked a little bit about the kind of demand in times of uncertainty. That's certainly true. In fact, we've shared some statistics around usage. And you saw during COVID, usage really spiked. We saw during the Ukraine crisis usage spiked because our customers view this as really kind of must-have insights into the credit markets. So that all then supports the value proposition and the pricing opportunity for us.

是的。你是對的。這對我們來說仍然是一項非常好的業務。我談到了不確定時期的需求類型。這當然是真的。事實上，我們已經分享了一些關於使用情況的統計數據。您在 COVID 期間看到，使用量確實飆升。在烏克蘭危機期間，我們看到使用量激增，因為我們的客戶認為這是對信貸市場的真正必備洞察。因此，所有這些都支持我們的價值主張和定價機會。

And we've also had some success in actually expanding the usage at some of -- excuse me, the kind of the broad usage at some of our customers as well. So all of that is contributing to supporting what is continuing to be some nice growth. And I also mentioned, Craig, we're continuing to make some enhancements in that CreditView platform that we think will provide ongoing support for growth.

而且我們在實際擴展某些方面的使用方面也取得了一些成功 - 對不起，我們的一些客戶也是廣泛使用的那種。因此，所有這些都有助於支持繼續保持良好增長的情況。我還提到，克雷格，我們將繼續對 CreditView 平台進行一些改進，我們認為這將為增長提供持續的支持。

And moving on to Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

並與奧本海默一起轉向歐文·劉。

I only have a quick two-part question. So the first part is, could you please talk about the FX impact to your overall business to your overall results in the second quarter? And then the second part is with regard to the interest expense guidance, I think you raised that number a little bit. Could you please talk more about that? And how we should think about the sensitivity on rising rates? And how we should model out the interest expense going forward?

我只有一個快速的兩部分問題。所以第一部分是，您能否談談外匯對您的整體業務對您第二季度的整體業績的影響？然後第二部分是關於利息費用的指導，我認為你把這個數字提高了一點。你能多談談嗎？我們應該如何看待利率上升的敏感性？以及我們應該如何模擬未來的利息費用？

I'll start with the FX impact of first, now trying to be comprehensive here as I realize this is an important element for consideration. During the second quarter, we did see the U.S. dollar strengthened quite considerably against both the euro and the British pound. Specifically, the end of quarter, spot rates were $1.05 against the euro and $1.21 against the pound. That's meaningfully down from $1.11 against the euro and $1.31 against pound last forecast. And as a result, the quarterly MCO, MIS and MA revenues were unfavorably impacted by approximately 3%, 2% and 5%, respectively. And the net impact of all of that flowed down to adjusted diluted EPS of about $0.07 negative in the quarter.

我將首先從外匯影響開始，現在在這裡嘗試全面，因為我意識到這是一個需要考慮的重要因素。在第二季度，我們確實看到美元兌歐元和英鎊都大幅走強。具體而言，本季度末，即期匯率兌歐元為 1.05 美元，兌英鎊為 1.21 美元。這比上次預測的兌歐元 1.11 美元和兌英鎊 1.31 美元顯著下降。因此，季度 MCO、MIS 和 MA 收入分別受到約 3%、2% 和 5% 的不利影響。所有這些的淨影響都流向了本季度調整後的稀釋後每股收益約 0.07 美元。

If I step back just for a minute. So approximately 45% of our revenue is generated through our international operations. And then of that, approximately 65% is generated in EMEA. And so further strengthening of the U.S. dollar specifically against the euro is going to weigh on our actual results as the year progresses.

如果我退後一分鐘。因此，我們大約 45% 的收入來自我們的國際業務。其中，大約 65% 是在歐洲、中東和非洲地區產生的。因此，隨著時間的推移，美元兌歐元的進一步走強將影響我們的實際業績。

Similarly, about 40% of our operating expense base is denominated in non-U.S. dollar currency as over 60-ish percent of our employees are located outside of the U.S., and that's going to help neutralize or at least partially neutralize the FX movements. So if I were to roughly quantify the annualized impact of foreign currency movement for modeling purposes, every $0.01 FX movement between the dollar and the euro is going to impact full year EPS by approximately $0.02, and full year revenue by about $8 million to $10 million. And then every $0.01 FX movements between the dollar and the British pound, is going to impact full year revenue by about $2 million and expenses by about $2 million. So more or less neutral on an EPS basis.

同樣，我們約 40% 的運營費用基礎以非美元貨幣計價，因為我們 60% 以上的員工位於美國境外，這將有助於抵消或至少部分抵消外匯波動。因此，如果我出於建模目的粗略量化外匯變動的年度影響，美元和歐元之間每 0.01 美元的外匯變動將影響全年每股收益約 0.02 美元，全年收入約 800 萬至 1000 萬美元.然後，美元和英鎊之間每 0.01 美元的外匯變動，將影響全年收入約 200 萬美元，支出約 200 萬美元。所以在每股收益的基礎上或多或少是中性的。

And then finally, if I think forward, when we set our medium-term targets back in February, we have assumed constant foreign currency exchange rates over the medium term. So specifically, the euro of about 1.14 to the dollar and the pound of 1.35 to the dollar. And so if foreign exchange rates remain at the current levels or if the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate, we're going to see a little bit of headwind to achieving the medium-term targets to become a bit more pronounced.

最後，如果我往前考慮，當我們在 2 月份設定中期目標時，我們假設中期外匯匯率保持不變。具體來說，歐元兌美元約為 1.14，英鎊兌美元約為 1.35。因此，如果外匯匯率保持在當前水平，或者如果美元繼續升值，我們將看到實現中期目標的阻力變得更加明顯。

On your second question around interest expense guidance, we do have a $500 million 2.625% coupon note that is maturing in January 2023. And our revised 2022 interest expense guidance of $220 million to $240 million incorporates the current expectation that we will look to refinance our January 2023 notes in the second half of this year.

關於您關於利息支出指導的第二個問題，我們確實有一張 5 億美元、利率為 2.625% 的息票，將於 2023 年 1 月到期。我們修訂後的 2022 年利息支出指導為 2.2 億美元至 2.4 億美元，其中包含了我們目前的預期，即我們將尋求再融資今年下半年的2023年1月票據。

And given the rise in benchmark rates, you could naturally expect a coupon or a higher coupon on a similar size and duration as the note that is due in early 2023. And so for additional context, historically, we've refinanced upcoming maturities before they've become due. And that's really part of our commitment to effectively manage our capital structure and maintain our financial flexibility. The best example of that, you could think about November 2021, when we refinanced the $500 million 4.5% debt that was maturing in 2022.

鑑於基準利率的上升，您自然可以期待與 2023 年初到期的票據具有相似規模和期限的票息或更高票息。因此，從歷史上看，我們已經為即將到期的債券再融資已經到期了。這確實是我們有效管理資本結構和保持財務靈活性的承諾的一部分。最好的例子是 2021 年 11 月，當時我們為 2022 年到期的 5 億美元、利率為 4.5% 的債務進行了再融資。

So maybe a last comment on the topic. In the event we don't proactively refinance the upcoming bond maturity, that would clearly reduce our interest expense expectation for the full year 2022.

所以也許是關於這個話題的最後評論。如果我們不主動為即將到期的債券再融資，這將明顯降低我們對 2022 年全年的利息支出預期。

And our next question will come from Russell Quelch with Redburn.

我們的下一個問題將來自與 Redburn 的 Russell Quelch。

So those have been helpful comments so far on the expenses. I wondered if you could detail what you would be prepared to do with respect to reducing expenses in the second half of the year if we do see a continued deterioration in markets.

因此，到目前為止，這些都是關於費用的有用評論。我想知道如果我們確實看到市場持續惡化，您是否可以詳細說明您將在下半年減少開支方面準備做什麼。

Russell, it's Rob. First of all, I just want to welcome you to the call. And just in terms of the additional actions that we would take during the second half of the year, I think there are two ways I'd like to look at this. There's definitely actions would take based on a cyclical outlook going into 2023. And then actions we take, which is not our central case based on sort of a structural outlook going into 2023.

拉塞爾，是羅布。首先，我只是想歡迎您來電。就我們在下半年將採取的額外行動而言，我認為我想從兩個方面來看待這個問題。基於進入 2023 年的周期性前景，肯定會採取行動。然後我們會採取行動，這不是我們基於進入 2023 年的結構性前景的核心案例。

In terms of cyclical activities that we could take, certainly slowing down hiring, that would be one. There are also natural expense levers in terms of managing our T&E costs as well as managing our incentive compensation accrual. We also have the ability, though, I would preserve this really for more structural-based outlook changes of reducing our organic strategic investments during the year or staggering those to be a slightly lower burn rate. And I think the reason that's important is those initiatives really do underpin medium-term guidance when you think about MIS and MA revenue.

就我們可以採取的周期性活動而言，肯定會放慢招聘速度，這就是其中之一。在管理我們的 T&E 成本以及管理我們的激勵薪酬應計方面，也有自然的費用槓桿。不過，我們也有能力保留這一點，以實現更多基於結構的前景變化，即在年內減少我們的有機戰略投資，或者將這些投資降低到略低的燃燒率。我認為重要的原因是當你考慮 MIS 和 MA 收入時，這些舉措確實支持中期指導。

Okay. Good. That's helpful. As a follow-up, I just wanted to confirm from what you're saying in the guidance that you're not going to be buying back any more shares for the rest of this year. And from your comments, all the firepower is going to be saved for bolt-on M&A. If that's the case, where do you believe you need to focus investment in MA from a data product perspective?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。作為後續行動，我只是想從你在指導中所說的確認你在今年剩餘時間內不會再回購任何股票。從你的評論來看，所有的火力都將用於補強併購。如果是這種情況，您認為從數據產品的角度來看，您需要將注意力集中在 MA 的哪些方面？

And perhaps as a final note and maybe a polite challenge, given the balance sheet is very healthy, as you noted in the schedule, close to 24-month low, why stop the buyback now?

也許作為最後一點，也許是一個禮貌的挑戰，鑑於資產負債表非常健康，正如您在時間表中指出的那樣，接近 24 個月的低點，為什麼現在停止回購？

I -- maybe just to reiterate some of the key points that we spoke about earlier. So we have lowered our guidance for full year 2022 share repurchases to approximately $1 billion, and that is lower than our prior guidance of $1.5 billion. And you could think about that as reflecting the current economic environment, specifically the fact that our outlook for full year and net income of full year EPS is commensurately lower by that amount.

我——也許只是為了重申我們之前談到的一些關鍵點。因此，我們已將 2022 年全年股票回購的指引下調至約 10 億美元，低於我們之前 15 億美元的指引。你可以認為這反映了當前的經濟環境，特別是我們對全年每股收益的展望和全年每股收益的淨收入相應地降低了這一數額。

And from a CFO's perspective, it's important, at least at this point in time, to adopt a slightly more conservative approach to capital management. And the idea here is to, again, preserve financial firepower to be able to take advantage of market opportunities. Those market opportunities could include further share price repurchases or they could include M&A. In other words, they're not looking to signal one over the other, only to create financial flexibility as we approach the end of the year.

從首席財務官的角度來看，至少在這個時間點上，對資本管理採取稍微保守一點的方法是很重要的。這裡的想法是再次保留財務火力，以便能夠利用市場機會。這些市場機會可能包括進一步的股價回購，也可能包括併購。換句話說，他們並不希望在另一個方面發出信號，而只是在我們接近年底時創造財務靈活性。

Okay. And then in terms of priorities, if it is M&A, where do you think you lack in terms of data or products?

好的。然後在優先級方面，如果是併購，您認為您在數據或產品方面缺乏哪些方面？

Yes. I think you've seen us be very active in that kind of know-your-customer verification space, where we have a compelling set of assets in a high-growth market. We're supplementing our acquisitions that we've done to date with organic investments, but there may be other opportunities there, and that would be very attractive for us because the growth rates we're seeing and the traction that we're getting from customers.

是的。我認為您已經看到我們在那種了解您的客戶驗證領域非常活躍，我們在高增長市場中擁有一組引人注目的資產。我們正在通過有機投資補充我們迄今為止所做的收購，但那裡可能還有其他機會，這對我們來說非常有吸引力，因為我們看到的增長率和我們從中獲得的牽引力顧客。

I would say also our banking business, you've seen us make some bolt-on acquisitions there over the last several years is the same with our insurance business. We've also, over the last few years, added what I'll call kind of domain capabilities that are really important to this idea of really bring to life integrated risk assessment for our customers. And so ESG and climate and properties and other things, we believe are -- we haven't done those at the same scale but are important in terms of this concept of delivering integrated risk assessment for our customers.

我還要說我們的銀行業務，您已經看到我們在過去幾年中在那裡進行了一些補強收購，這與我們的保險業務相同。在過去的幾年裡，我們還添加了我所說的領域能力，這些能力對於為我們的客戶真正實現綜合風險評估這一想法非常重要。因此，我們認為 ESG、氣候、財產和其他事情是——我們沒有在相同的規模上做過這些事情，但就為我們的客戶提供綜合風險評估的概念而言，這些事情很重要。

And our next question come from Jeff Meuler with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Meuler 和 Baird。

The question is, how independent are the M&A compensation plans from the MIS or overall corporate performance? And I know shared services burden can shift and between the segments or it can impact executive comp and whatnot. But I guess the lead-in for the question would be, given the magnitude of the consolidated revenue guidance reduction, I would have expected more of an adjustment in that operating growth plus incentive compensation expense bucket, but I'm wondering if the answer is largely because there's this big pool of MA expense that's largely untouched in -- given the current circumstances?

問題是，併購薪酬計劃與 MIS 或整體公司業績的獨立性如何？而且我知道共享服務負擔可以在各個細分市場之間轉移，或者它會影響高管薪酬等等。但我想這個問題的引言是，考慮到合併收入指導減少的幅度，我預計會在運營增長和激勵補償費用方面進行更多調整，但我想知道答案是否是很大程度上是因為在當前情況下，有一大筆 MA 費用基本上沒有受到影響？

Yes. So I mean, overall, we have kind of one corporate bonus pool, and we obviously have allocations to our businesses and our functions guided by performance. But I think at a high level, you're right, I mean it's been A Tale of Two Cities. So the MA performance has been quite strong, MIS performance less so. And so that -- we then expect that to be reflected in our compensation accruals.

是的。所以我的意思是，總的來說，我們有一個企業獎金池，我們顯然根據業績分配給我們的業務和職能。但我認為在高層次上，你是對的，我的意思是這是兩個城市的故事。所以 MA 的表現一直很強勁， MIS 的表現則不那麼強。因此，我們希望這會反映在我們的應計薪酬中。

Okay. And then, Mark, when I add up the factors on Slide 23, I get to like 6% year-over-year growth. Are you trying to signal something at the lower end of the high single-digit percentage increase range? And just to be clear, that includes 1 point from restructuring charges, which are then excluded on an adjusted EPS basis?

好的。然後，馬克，當我把幻燈片 23 上的因素加起來時，我得到了 6% 的同比增長。您是否試圖在高個位數百分比增長范圍的低端發出信號？需要明確的是，這包括重組費用的 1 點，然後在調整後的每股收益基礎上排除？

Thank you for allowing me to reconfirm that point. That's exactly right. So I certainly would like to signal the lower end of the high single-digit percentage growth for full year operating expenses. And that, of course, to your point, includes approximately 1% from the restructuring program.

感謝您允許我再次確認這一點。這是完全正確的。因此，我當然想表明全年運營費用的高個位數百分比增長的低端。當然，就您而言，這包括重組計劃中的大約 1%。

And that restructuring is excluded from adjusted EPS, correct?

而且重組不包括在調整後的每股收益中，對嗎？

That is correct.

那是對的。

And our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Shlomo Rosenbaum。

I'm just trying to think a little bit about Slide 17 in terms of MIS with the debt has grown throughout varied economic conditions. Is that really the right way to look at it? I mean we're looking at 2008 where it looks like debt is -- debt went up, but the MIS business had significant declines during that point in time. What should we be looking at in terms of really moving the needle back and forth for the business? Is it really should we be looking at high yield and leveraged loans? I mean how should we be thinking about that? And then the potential impact from rising interest rates, particularly in those securities in terms of like CFO's interest in just rolling their debt forward at current levels or potentially looking to delever.

我只是想從 MIS 的角度考慮一下幻燈片 17，因為債務在不同的經濟條件下都在增長。這真的是正確的看待它的方式嗎？我的意思是，我們正在研究 2008 年，看起來債務是——債務增加了，但在那個時間點，管理信息系統業務顯著下降。在真正為業務來回移動指針方面，我們應該注意什麼？我們真的應該關注高收益和槓桿貸款嗎？我的意思是我們應該如何考慮這個問題？然後是利率上升的潛在影響，特別是在那些證券方面，比如首席財務官有興趣將其債務向前滾動到當前水平或可能尋求去槓桿化。

Yes. Maybe I'll provide a few perspectives, and then I'll see if Mark wants to build on that. I mean there are -- I think a number of ways to kind of triangulate around what you think kind of a growth rate for the business going forward is.

是的。也許我會提供一些觀點，然後我會看看馬克是否想以此為基礎。我的意思是 - 我認為有多種方法可以圍繞您認為的未來業務增長率進行三角測量。

I do think the overall stock of global debt is an important one. And what I think this chart in part shows is that you've obviously got new issuers coming into the market year after year. And so that stock of debt has continued to grow. And that's very important because these maturity walls that we talk about provide kind of a -- we've used the term kind of a ballast for the business. And there's just been a lot of debt that has been issued in particular in the last few years. But the overall just stock of debt has gotten much larger. And then we look at the flow of debt, and we've had, I think, a good bit of conversation about the flow of debt on this call.

我確實認為全球債務的整體存量很重要。我認為這張圖表部分顯示的是，你顯然有新的發行人年復一年地進入市場。因此，債務存量繼續增長。這非常重要，因為我們談論的這些成熟度牆提供了一種 - 我們已經為業務使用了“鎮流器”一詞。特別是在過去幾年中，剛剛發行了很多債務。但整體的正義債務存量變得更大了。然後我們看看債務的流動，我認為，在這次電話會議上，我們就債務流動進行了很多對話。

And you touched on mix. And one of the big themes over the last 10 years was the growth of the leveraged finance markets. And that, in fact, has been favorable to our mix over the years. It's hard to say what I said in the near term, you could see mix being neutral to even negative. But keep in mind, part of what is driving that is that you have private equity firms that have raised an enormous amount of capital over the last few years. And so they are deploying that capital with buyout activity. And that has really fueled the leverage finance market and the leveraged loan market in particular. I think that's actually been kind of an important structural trend that has supported issuance over the last decade.

你談到了混合。過去 10 年的一大主題是槓桿金融市場的增長。事實上，多年來，這對我們的組合有利。很難說我在短期內所說的話，你可以看到混合是中性甚至是負面的。但請記住，部分原因是私募股權公司在過去幾年籌集了大量資金。因此，他們正在通過收購活動來部署這筆資金。這確實推動了槓桿融資市場，尤其是槓桿貸款市場。我認為這實際上是一種重要的結構性趨勢，在過去十年中一直支持發行。

And maybe, Shlomo, if I may just add on to Rob's comments. I think it's a little bit of a different direction here, but I think it will be helpful as you consider the moment in history that we're in. And the way I want to approach this is really just taking it through the lens of cyclicality versus structural over time.

也許，Shlomo，如果我可以補充 Rob 的評論。我認為這是一個有點不同的方向，但我認為當你考慮我們所處的歷史時刻時，它會有所幫助。我想要解決這個問題的方式實際上只是通過週期性的鏡頭來看待它與結構隨著時間的推移。

And when we think about a cyclical shift in issuance, and I think about both refinancing activity as well as new debt issuance, for example, existing issuers growing their balance sheet or new companies accessing the debt market, really could consider the following point.

當我們考慮發行的周期性轉變時，我會考慮再融資活動和新債務發行，例如，現有發行人擴大資產負債表或新公司進入債務市場，真的可以考慮以下幾點。

So firstly, it's a cyclical decline, which is our central case scenario. It's really temporary until, I suppose, 1 of 2 conditions happen: either funding costs turn from rising to falling or -- and/or a growth trend turned from falling to rising. And our belief is that those 2 conditions really might be met by the second half of next year, if inflation is reined in by the first half of next year or by 2024, if this is a longer downturn, i.e., inflation is hardly reined or growth suffers materially, not our central case, but a structural decline in debt issuance or you consider aggregate global deleveraging would be a longer-lasting phenomenon where companies and governments across various sectors and regions decided to shrink the balance sheet. And that's really a result of demand or supply imbalance. So you think about it on the demand side, longer-term global growth prospects are lowered so significantly that companies aren't expanding or social needs have fallen. So governments aren't expanding services, for example.

因此，首先，這是一個週期性下降，這是我們的中心案例情景。我想這真的是暫時的，直到出現以下兩種情況中的一種：要么融資成本從上升變為下降，要么——和/或增長趨勢從下降變為上升。我們的信念是，如果通脹在明年上半年或到 2024 年得到控制，這兩個條件可能會在明年下半年真正得到滿足，如果這是一個更長的低迷期，即通脹幾乎沒有得到控製或增長受到實質性影響，不是我們的核心案例，而是債務發行的結構性下降，或者您認為全球總體去槓桿化將是一個持續時間更長的現象，各個行業和地區的公司和政府決定縮減資產負債表。這實際上是供需失衡的結果。所以你從需求方面考慮，長期的全球增長前景被顯著降低，以至於公司沒有擴張或社會需求下降。例如，政府並沒有擴大服務範圍。

Similarly, on the supply side, savers are saving less and there is less money to borrow or savers are investing in vehicles other than the debt markets. And I think the key point here, in that the years that are going to follow sort of '23 and '24, we may not ultimately return to a period of low inflation and low rate, but debt issuance is likely to remain in a very efficient method to refinance growth. And ultimately, that becomes very important in how we think about sort of the outlook, not just for this year but over the medium-term period, in consideration.

同樣，在供給方面，儲戶的儲蓄減少了，可以藉的錢也減少了，或者儲戶投資於債務市場以外的工具。我認為這裡的關鍵點在於，在 23 年和 24 年之後的幾年，我們可能最終不會回到低通脹和低利率的時期，但債券發行可能會保持在一個非常為增長再融資的有效方法。最終，這對於我們如何考慮前景變得非常重要，不僅是今年，而且是中期。

And maybe a final point here is the global economy has really gone through many cyclical and structural shifts over time and debt has remained a key method of financing that growth and innovation.

也許最後一點是，隨著時間的推移，全球經濟確實經歷了許多周期性和結構性轉變，而債務仍然是為增長和創新融資的關鍵方法。

Okay. Just one follow-up. Where are you with retention? I mean there's a lot of talk of reinvesting to improve retention and things like that. And you guys really are in a very much a people business for a lot of it. Where are you with your retention metrics now? Are you comfortable that you have -- that you will be deploying enough to retain the levels of employees that or in the quality of employees that you're looking for?

好的。只是一個後續。你在哪裡保留？我的意思是有很多關於再投資以提高保留率之類的討論。你們真的在很多人的業務中。您現在的保留指標在哪裡？您是否感到滿意 - 您將部署足夠多的員工以保留您正在尋找的員工水平或員工質量？

Yes, Shlomo, you're right. People are absolutely critical to our business. And it's what has gotten us through the pandemic so well. And we have indeed made some investments in making sure that we retain our people. In general, I would say that based on the kind of data that we have and kind of our ability to benchmark against financial services, we think we're either broadly in line or even slightly better in terms of overall employee retention than financial services more broadly. But it continues to be a competitive market, and we continue to make sure that we're making the right investments to not only retain the people we need, but attract the people that we need as well.

是的，Shlomo，你是對的。人對我們的業務至關重要。正是它讓我們如此順利地度過了這場大流行病。我們確實進行了一些投資，以確保我們留住我們的員工。總的來說，我會說，根據我們擁有的數據類型和我們對金融服務進行基準測試的能力，我們認為我們在整體員工保留率方面比金融服務大致符合甚至略好寬廣地。但它仍然是一個競爭激烈的市場，我們繼續確保我們做出正確的投資，不僅可以留住我們需要的人，還可以吸引我們需要的人。

One other -- Shlomo, one other thing to add to that, sorry, it's not all about compensation either. Compensation is important, but we hear from our employees all the time that several other aspects of working at Moody's, it's about working in a company that you feel has a real purpose and does something important in the world. It's about having the flexibility that you value. We did a recent employee survey and our employees tell us we're doing a pretty good job on workplace flexibility. So we're going to continue to make sure that we're focused not just on compensation, but on the whole kind of basket of things that contribute to kind of a compelling value proposition for our employees.

另一個——Shlomo，還有一件事要補充，抱歉，這也不僅僅是關於補償。薪酬很重要，但我們一直從我們的員工那裡聽到，在穆迪工作的其他幾個方面，就是在一家你覺得有真正目的並在世界上做一些重要事情的公司工作。這是關於擁有您所重視的靈活性。我們最近進行了一項員工調查，我們的員工告訴我們，我們在工作場所的靈活性方面做得很好。因此，我們將繼續確保我們不僅關注薪酬，而且關注有助於為我們的員工提供令人信服的價值主張的一攬子事情。

Thank you. And that does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to Mr. Rob Fauber for any additional or closing remarks.

謝謝你。這確實結束了問答環節。我現在將會議轉回給 Rob Fauber 先生，以獲取任何補充或結束語。

Okay. So thanks, everybody, for joining today, and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Goodbye.

好的。因此，感謝大家今天的加入，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。再見。

Thank you. This concludes Moody's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay of this call will be available after 4 p.m. Eastern Time on Moody's IR website. Thank you.

謝謝你。穆迪 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議到此結束。提醒一下，在本次電話會議之後，該公司將在穆迪投資者關係主頁的“投資者資源”部分下發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，下午 4 點後將提供此電話的重播。穆迪投資者關係網站上的東部時間。謝謝你。