穆迪 (MCO) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。在這個時候，我想通知你，這個電話正在被錄音。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. Thank you all for joining us to discuss Moody's first quarter 2022 results and our revised outlook for full year 2022. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，早上好。感謝大家與我們一起討論穆迪 2022 年第一季度業績和我們對 2022 年全年的修訂展望。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。

This morning, Moody's released its results for the first quarter of 2022 as well as our revised outlook for full year 2022. The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com.

今天上午，穆迪發布了 2022 年第一季度的業績以及我們對 2022 年全年的修訂展望。本次電話會議的收益新聞稿和演示文稿均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上查閱。

Rob Fauber, Moody's President and Chief Executive Officer, will lead this morning's conference call. Also making prepared remarks on the call this morning is Mark Kaye, Moody's Chief Financial Officer.

穆迪總裁兼首席執行官 Rob Fauber 將主持今天上午的電話會議。穆迪首席財務官馬克·凱伊也在今天上午的電話會議上發表了事先準備好的講話。

During this call, we will also be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for a reconciliation between all adjusted measures referenced during this call and GAAP.

在本次電話會議中，我們還將展示非公認會計原則或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天上午提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解本次電話會議期間引用的所有調整後的措施與 GAAP 之間的對賬。

I call your attention to the safe harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website. These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

我提請您注意安全港語言，該語言可以在我們的收益發布結束時找到。今天的評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論和分析部分以及我們在 Form 的年度報告中討論的風險因素截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K，以及該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，這些文件可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。這些與安全港聲明一起列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果大不相同的重要因素。

I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode.

我還想指出，媒體成員今天早上可能會以只聽模式接聽電話。

I will now turn the call over to Rob Fauber.

我現在將把電話轉給 Rob Fauber。

Thanks, Shivani. Good morning, and thanks, everybody, for joining today's call. I'll begin by providing a general update on the business, including our first quarter 2022 results. And following my commentary, Mark Kaye will provide some further details on our first quarter 2022 performance as well as our revised 2022 outlook. And after our prepared remarks, as always, Mark and I will be happy to take questions.

謝謝，希瓦尼。早上好，感謝大家加入今天的電話會議。我將首先提供有關業務的一般更新，包括我們 2022 年第一季度的業績。在我發表評論之後，馬克·凱伊將提供有關我們 2022 年第一季度業績以及我們修訂後的 2022 年展望的更多細節。在我們準備好的發言之後，一如既往，馬克和我將很樂意回答問題。

So against a backdrop of geopolitical turbulence and volatile markets, Moody's first quarter revenue was $1.5 billion, and that's down 5% from the prior year period. With the decline in issuance in the first quarter and our expectation for continued subdued levels of opportunistic issuance for the balance of the year, we've updated our full year 2022 guidance, and we now project Moody's revenue to be approximately flat relative to the prior year. We've also lowered our adjusted diluted EPS guidance to be in the range of $10.75 to $11.25.

因此，在地緣政治動盪和市場動蕩的背景下，穆迪第一季度收入為 15 億美元，比去年同期下降 5%。由於第一季度的發行量下降，以及我們預計今年餘下時間的機會性發行水平將持續低迷，我們更新了我們的 2022 年全年指引，我們現在預計穆迪的收入將與之前基本持平年。我們還將調整後的稀釋後每股收益指引下調至 10.75 美元至 11.25 美元之間。

MA continued to be a strong source of consistent growth, while market disruptions impacted issuance activity as investments to meet customer demand for our mission-critical suite of tools and solutions drove revenue growth up 23%. Recurring revenue is core to this growth which is why we're introducing a new reporting metric, annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, and we expect this new metric to provide greater transparency into the growth trajectory of MA's recurring revenue.

MA 繼續成為持續增長的強勁來源，而市場中斷影響了發行活動，因為為滿足客戶對我們的任務關鍵型工具和解決方案套件的需求而進行的投資推動收入增長了 23%。經常性收入是這種增長的核心，這就是我們引入新報告指標、年度經常性收入或 ARR 的原因，我們預計這一新指標將為 MA 經常性收入的增長軌跡提供更大的透明度。

The temporary impact of market uncertainty on our financial performance does not change our expectations for the medium term. And time and time again, in periods of uncertainty like these, markets and organizations look to Moody's for expertise and insights, increasing the demand for our integrated risk assessment offerings. And so we remain confident in the fundamental drivers of our growth.

市場不確定性對我們財務業績的暫時影響不會改變我們對中期的預期。在這樣的不確定時期，市場和組織一次又一次地向穆迪尋求專業知識和見解，從而增加了對我們綜合風險評估產品的需求。因此，我們對我們增長的基本驅動力仍然充滿信心。

Moody's revenue was down just 5% from a year ago, reflecting the diversity and resilience of our business portfolio. And while MIS revenue decreased 20%, MA revenue was up 23% or 9% on an organic basis, driven by strong customer demand for our solutions. Adjusted operating income fell 20% to $734 million. Adjusted diluted EPS was $2.89, a decrease of 29% year-on-year. And Mark will provide some additional details on our financials shortly.

穆迪的收入僅比一年前下降了 5%，這反映了我們業務組合的多樣性和彈性。雖然 MIS 收入下降了 20%，但 MA 收入在有機基礎上增長了 23% 或 9%，這是由於客戶對我們的解決方案的強勁需求。調整後的營業收入下降 20% 至 7.34 億美元。調整後的稀釋後每股收益為 2.89 美元，同比下降 29%。馬克將很快提供一些關於我們財務狀況的額外細節。

Now turning to MIS. The issuance factors we highlighted during our fourth quarter earnings call really remain unchanged as elevated inflation and the prospect of additional interest rate increases, combined with the impact of the Ukraine conflict, are contributing to uncertainty and volatility. And these factors have adversely affected debt capital markets activity, including opportunistic refinancing and M&A transactions, particularly in the leverage finance markets.

現在轉向 MIS。我們在第四季度財報電話會議上強調的發行因素實際上保持不變，因為通脹上升和額外加息的前景，再加上烏克蘭衝突的影響，正在加劇不確定性和波動性。這些因素對債務資本市場活動產生了不利影響，包括機會性再融資和併購交易，尤其是在槓桿融資市場。

And as we've said over the years, periods of market disruption need to be put into historical context, and I would argue that this period is no different. And this chart illustrates our rated issuance over the last decade with the gray bars representing periods of market volatility. And it shows that activity typically rebounds after periods of market disruption and has grown steadily over time. And though there's uncertainty as to how long the current disruption will last, we believe that the market will eventually reset amidst higher interest rates and will eventually resume issuance growth supported by economic expansion and substantial financing maturity walls.

正如我們多年來所說的那樣，需要將市場動盪時期置於歷史背景中，我認為這一時期也不例外。這張圖表說明了我們在過去十年中的評級發行，灰色條代表市場波動時期。它表明，活動通常會在市場中斷期後反彈，並且隨著時間的推移穩步增長。儘管目前的中斷將持續多長時間尚不確定，但我們相信市場最終將在利率上升的情況下重新調整，並最終在經濟擴張和大量融資期限壁壘的支持下恢復發行增長。

Now the medium-term drivers of debt issuance and our business remains strong. And as we said in the past, issuance is a function of several macroeconomic factors, the most significant of which is economic expansion. Looking ahead, we do expect global GDP growth for the remainder of the year, albeit at a modest pace. The underpinnings of the economy remain sound, and consumer and corporate balance sheets remain healthy, and U.S. unemployment remains at near historical lows.

現在，債務發行的中期驅動力和我們的業務依然強勁。正如我們過去所說，發行是幾個宏觀經濟因素的函數，其中最重要的是經濟擴張。展望未來，我們確實預計今年餘下時間全球 GDP 將增長，儘管增速放緩。經濟基礎依然穩健，消費者和企業資產負債表保持健康，美國失業率仍處於歷史低位附近。

While several rounds of interest rate increases are expected this year, as the Fed addresses inflation, rates will remain low by historical standards. Volatility in the credit markets has been reflected in spread fluctuations. Those spreads also remain well below the 10-year average. And taken as a whole, the cost of borrowing remains historically low.

儘管預計今年將進行幾輪加息，但隨著美聯儲解決通脹問題，按歷史標準衡量，利率仍將保持在低位。信貸市場的波動性反映在價差波動上。這些利差也遠低於 10 年平均水平。總體而言，借貸成本仍處於歷史低位。

In addition to these factors, there's a healthy stock of debt which needs to be refinanced, more than $4 trillion over the next 4 years. And we expect the continued buildup in our first-time mandates will drive growth in our recurring revenue, as demonstrated over the last 2 years.

除了這些因素之外，還有一個健康的債務存量需要再融資，未來 4 年將超過 4 萬億美元。我們預計，我們首次授權的持續增加將推動我們經常性收入的增長，正如過去 2 年所證明的那樣。

Now pivoting to Moody's Analytics. We're driving robust growth across the breadth of our products and solutions. In the first quarter, revenue was up 23%, supported by organic revenue growth of 9% and a 96% customer retention rate. We're now including annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, in our reporting to give an indication of our revenue expectations for the future. Organic ARR was up 9% for the first quarter, demonstrating the strength of our recurring revenue across the business. Again, Mark will provide some additional details on ARR shortly.

現在轉向穆迪分析。我們正在推動我們的產品和解決方案的廣泛增長。在第一季度，收入增長了 23%，這得益於 9% 的有機收入增長和 96% 的客戶保留率。我們現在將年度經常性收入或 ARR 納入我們的報告中，以表明我們對未來的收入預期。第一季度的有機 ARR 增長了 9%，證明了我們整個業務的經常性收入的實力。同樣，Mark 將很快提供有關 ARR 的一些其他詳細信息。

I'd like to take a moment to share a story that illustrates how offerings across our 3 reporting lines in MA come together to provide value for our customers. As a result of the acquisition of Bureau van Dijk in 2017, we had a modest relationship with a large multinational insurance underwriter that was using our Orbis database to support sales and marketing activities.

我想花點時間分享一個故事，說明我們在馬薩諸塞州的 3 條報告線中的產品如何結合在一起為我們的客戶提供價值。由於 2017 年收購了 Bureau van Dijk，我們與一家大型跨國保險承銷商建立了適度的關係，該承銷商使用我們的 Orbis 數據庫支持銷售和營銷活動。

Following the acquisition, we had a series of discussions with this and other customers about ways to address a wider range of their needs, which, in this case, included their process for underwriting trade credit insurance. We were able to package our Orbis data, our credit research and credit scorecards, combined with our AI-enabled spreading offering, to provide a set of integrated solutions that transform their workflow, helping them to eliminate 70% of their manual tasks in their trade credit underwriting process and increasing their efficiency and enhancing their effectiveness. This upsell resulted in approximately 300% increase in annual customer revenue.

收購之後，我們與該客戶和其他客戶就如何滿足他們更廣泛的需求進行了一系列討論，在這種情況下，包括他們為貿易信用保險承保的流程。我們能夠將我們的 Orbis 數據、信用研究和信用記分卡與我們支持 AI 的傳播產品相結合，提供一套集成的解決方案來改變他們的工作流程，幫助他們在交易中消除 70% 的手動任務信用承銷流程並提高其效率並提高其有效性。這種追加銷售導致年客戶收入增加約 300%。

And today, we're having discussions with them about further expanding our relationship to serve additional use cases and solutions, including integrating ESG into their underwriting processes. And I think it's just a great example of our ability to expand our customer relationships by bringing together the full capabilities across Moody's Analytics.

今天，我們正在與他們討論進一步擴大我們的關係以服務更多用例和解決方案，包括將 ESG 整合到他們的承保流程中。我認為這只是我們通過整合穆迪分析的全部能力來擴大客戶關係的一個很好的例子。

As you know, helping the market make sense of the risks and opportunities posed by ESG and climate change is a priority for us, and we're increasingly delivering solutions that help companies incorporate these critical factors into their decision-making. And that's an important reason for our acquisition of RMS last year. In addition to building a business serving the insurance industry, RMS brings scaled world-class weather and climate data and analytics which we're bringing to a much broader customer audience.

如您所知，幫助市場了解 ESG 和氣候變化帶來的風險和機遇是我們的首要任務，我們越來越多地提供解決方案，幫助公司將這些關鍵因素納入決策。這也是我們去年收購 RMS 的一個重要原因。除了建立為保險業服務的業務外，RMS 還帶來了規模化的世界級天氣和氣候數據和分析，我們將這些數據和分析帶給更廣泛的客戶受眾。

Inclusive of revenue from RMS' climate-related offerings, our combined revenue for our ESG and Climate Solutions was approximately $170 million in 2021. We expect this revenue to grow in the low double-digit percent range this year. We also expect our climate revenues, which, today, are predominantly from RMS, to accelerate as we continue to integrate its best-in-class models to meet our customers' growing needs. And going forward, we'll update you on this revenue number as it provides, I think, a good sense of our scale and impact in this area.

包括 RMS 氣候相關產品的收入，我們的 ESG 和氣候解決方案的總收入在 2021 年約為 1.7 億美元。我們預計今年這一收入將在兩位數的低百分比範圍內增長。我們還預計，隨著我們繼續整合其一流的模型以滿足客戶不斷增長的需求，我們今天主要來自 RMS 的氣候收入將加速增長。展望未來，我們將向您更新這個收入數字，因為我認為它可以很好地了解我們在該領域的規模和影響。

Our growth is supported by a number of key innovations and award-winning product launches. Last month, we launched ESG360, which is a powerful platform that delivers decision-relevant ESG data and insights to portfolio managers. We're also launching new climate change models in the U.S. and Asia that will help address the growing need for climate change analytics, including supporting increasing regulatory demands.

我們的增長得到了許多關鍵創新和屢獲殊榮的產品發布的支持。上個月，我們推出了 ESG360，這是一個強大的平台，可為投資組合經理提供與決策相關的 ESG 數據和見解。我們還在美國和亞洲推出了新的氣候變化模型，這將有助於滿足對氣候變化分析日益增長的需求，包括支持日益增長的監管需求。

We're proud to have received recognition from customers for our ESG and climate-related products and services, including being named ESG Opinion Provider of the Year by the International Financing Review. I'm excited about the opportunities ahead as we continue to play a meaningful role in helping companies decode risk and unlock opportunity.

我們很自豪我們的 ESG 和氣候相關產品和服務獲得了客戶的認可，包括被《國際融資評論》評為年度 ESG 意見提供者。我對未來的機會感到興奮，因為我們將繼續在幫助公司解碼風險和釋放機會方面發揮有意義的作用。

And speaking of decoding risk, our customers turn to us even more in times of stress and uncertainty, and we saw that during the throes of the pandemic. And as you can see on this slide, the relevance of our offerings has probably never been higher with significant leadership of our research and usage of our solutions. Our research reports have been read over 200,000 times, while KYC screenings are up 70% year-over-year as our customers have a critical need to better understand and monitor their own customers and suppliers amidst geopolitical conflict and sanctions.

談到解碼風險，我們的客戶在壓力和不確定的時候會更多地轉向我們，我們在大流行的陣痛中看到了這一點。正如您在這張幻燈片上看到的那樣，我們的產品的相關性可能從未像現在這樣高，因為我們在研究和使用我們的解決方案方面處於領先地位。我們的研究報告已被閱讀超過 200,000 次，而 KYC 篩選量同比增長 70%，因為我們的客戶迫切需要在地緣政治衝突和製裁中更好地了解和監控他們自己的客戶和供應商。

So with that, I will now turn the call over to Mark to provide further details on Moody's first quarter results as well as an update to our outlook for 2022.

因此，我現在將電話轉給馬克，以提供有關穆迪第一季度業績的更多詳細信息以及我們對 2022 年展望的更新。

Thank you, Rob. In the first quarter, MIS revenue declined 20% from last year's record level as geopolitical concerns, rising yields and elevated economic uncertainty contributed to a 25% decrease in rated issuance. Corporate finance, financial institutions and public, project infrastructure revenue declined 31%, 19% and 14%, respectively, with many issuers remaining on the sidelines due to unfavorable market conditions and existing levels of balance sheet liquidity. Structured finance revenue increased 24%, supported by 10% growth in issuance, primarily from commercial and residential mortgage-backed securities, offset by a decline in CLO refinancing activity.

謝謝你，羅布。第一季度，由於地緣政治擔憂、收益率上升和經濟不確定性加劇，導致評級發行量下降 25%，MIS 收入較去年創紀錄水平下降 20%。企業融資、金融機構和公共、項目基礎設施收入分別下降 31%、19% 和 14%，由於不利的市場條件和現有的資產負債表流動性水平，許多發行人仍處於觀望狀態。結構性融資收入增長 24%，主要來自商業和住宅抵押貸款支持證券的發行量增長 10%，但被 CLO 再融資活動的下降所抵消。

MIS' adjusted operating margin was 58.6%. Revenue was adversely impacted by the noted absence of opportunistic issuance in the quarter, while operating expenses, excluding those related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, remained relatively flat.

MIS 調整後的營業利潤率為 58.6%。收入受到本季度明顯缺乏機會性發行的不利影響，而運營費用（不包括與俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突相關的費用）保持相對平穩。

Moving to MA. First quarter revenue grew 23%, delivering the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Excluding the impact of recent acquisitions, revenue and recurring revenue were up 9% and 11%, respectively. In Decision Solutions, revenue increased 48% or 14% on an organic basis. This is driven by robust demand for KYC banking as well as insurance and asset management solutions. Research and insights revenue rose 7%, reflecting strong demand for our credit research, analytics and models, underpinned by a 97% customer retention rate. For data and information, revenue grew 6%, driven by new sales of the company's data and ratings feeds.

搬到馬。第一季度收入增長 23%，連續第五個季度實現兩位數增長。剔除近期收購的影響，收入和經常性收入分別增長 9% 和 11%。在決策解決方案中，收入有機增長了 48% 或 14%。這是由對 KYC 銀行業務以及保險和資產管理解決方案的強勁需求推動的。研究和洞察收入增長 7%，反映出對我們的信用研究、分析和模型的強勁需求，這得益於 97% 的客戶保留率。在數據和信息方面，收入增長了 6%，這主要得益於公司數據和評級源的新銷售。

MA's adjusted operating margin expanded by approximately 350 basis points from incremental operating leverage, net of ongoing organic investments. This was offset by approximately 430 basis points of margin contraction due to acquisitions completed within the last 12 months.

MA 的調整後營業利潤率從增加的經營槓桿（扣除正在進行的有機投資）擴大了約 350 個基點。由於過去 12 個月內完成的收購，這被大約 430 個基點的利潤率收縮所抵消。

Over the past few years, we have successfully transitioned the MA business to a predominantly subscription-based model with strong recurring revenue which now accounts for 94% of total MA revenue. This quarter, we are pleased to introduce a new forward-looking performance metric for our MA business. This new metric, annualized recurring revenue, or ARR, is the annualized run rate of recurring revenue for active contracts at a point in time. Renewable contracts include subscriptions, term licenses and software maintenance. The ARR metric provides insight into the trajectory of MA's recurring revenue with visibility specifically into the growth of the subscription business from both our acquisition of new customers and the expansion of existing relationships.

在過去的幾年裡，我們已經成功地將 MA 業務轉變為以訂閱為主的模式，具有強勁的經常性收入，目前佔 MA 總收入的 94%。本季度，我們很高興為我們的 MA 業務引入一個新的前瞻性績效指標。這個新的指標，年化經常性收入，或 ARR，是活躍合同在某個時間點的經常性收入的年化運行率。可續訂合同包括訂閱、定期許可和軟件維護。 ARR 指標提供了對 MA 經常性收入軌蹟的洞察，特別是通過我們獲得新客戶和擴大現有關係來了解訂閱業務的增長。

As of March 31, 2020, MA's ARR of $2.6 billion reflected 25% growth from the prior year period or 9% on an organic basis. In addition, we are guiding to low double-digit organic ARR growth for year-end '22, reflecting our expectation for accelerated renewable sales through the remainder of the year.

截至 2020 年 3 月 31 日，MA 的 ARR 為 26 億美元，比去年同期增長 25%，或有機增長 9%。此外，我們正在引導 22 年底的低兩位數有機 ARR 增長，這反映了我們對在今年剩餘時間內加速可再生能源銷售的預期。

Turning now to our revised guidance. Moody's updated outlook for full year 2022 as of May 2 reflects assumptions about numerous factors. These include, but are not limited to, the effective interest rates, inflation, foreign currency exchange rates, capital market liquidity and activity in different sectors of the debt markets. The outlook also reflects assumptions about general economic conditions, global GDP growth, the scale and duration of the crisis in Ukraine and the impact of COVID-19 as well as the company's own operations and personnel.

現在轉向我們的修訂指南。穆迪截至 5 月 2 日更新的 2022 年全年展望反映了對眾多因素的假設。這些包括但不限於實際利率、通貨膨脹、外幣匯率、資本市場流動性和債務市場不同部門的活動。展望還反映了對總體經濟狀況、全球 GDP 增長、烏克蘭危機的規模和持續時間以及 COVID-19 的影響以及公司自身的運營和人員的假設。

Our updated full year 2022 guidance incorporates the following specific macroeconomic assumptions: the 2022 U.S. and Euro area GDP to expand by approximately 3.5% to 4.5% and 2.5% to 3.5%, respectively; and global benchmark rates to increase from historic lows; with U.S. high-yield spreads moving slightly above the historic average of approximately 500 basis points; and inflation rates to remain elevated and above central bank targets in many countries. By year-end, the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to remain low at approximately 3.5%, and the global high-yield default rate will initially decline before gradually rising to approximately 2.7%. Our guidance also assumes foreign currency translation and for the remainder of 2022 reflects exchange rates for the British pound of $1.32 and $1.11 for the euro.

我們更新的 2022 年全年指引包含以下具體宏觀經濟假設： 2022 年美國和歐元區 GDP 將分別增長約 3.5% 至 4.5% 和 2.5% 至 3.5%；和全球基準利率從歷史低點上升；美國高收益債券利差略高於約 500 個基點的歷史平均水平；許多國家的通脹率將保持在高位並高於央行目標。到年底，美國失業率預計將維持在 3.5% 左右的低位，全球高收益債券違約率將初步下降，然後逐漸上升至 2.7% 左右。我們的指引還假設外幣換算，並在 2022 年剩餘時間內反映英鎊兌 1.32 美元和歐元兌 1.11 美元的匯率。

We are updating our full year 2022 guidance across several metrics to reflect both first quarter results and our revised expectation for the remainder of the year. We now forecast Moody's revenue to remain approximately flat to the prior year and for operating expenses to increase in the high single-digit percent range, down from our prior guidance as we prudently manage and prioritize investment activity through the cycle.

我們正在更新多個指標的 2022 年全年指導，以反映第一季度的結果和我們對今年剩餘時間的修訂預期。我們現在預測穆迪的收入將與上年基本持平，運營費用將在高個位數百分比範圍內增長，低於我們之前的指導，因為我們在整個週期內審慎管理和優先考慮投資活動。

Consequently, we now project Moody's adjusted operating margin to be approximately 47% and have lowered the diluted and adjusted diluted EPS guidance ranges to $9.85 to $10.35 and $10.75 to $11.25, respectively.

因此，我們現在預計穆迪調整後的營業利潤率約為 47%，並將稀釋後和調整後的稀釋後每股收益指引範圍分別下調至 9.85 美元至 10.35 美元和 10.75 美元至 11.25 美元。

We decreased our free cash flow forecast to be between $1.8 billion and $2.0 billion and maintain our expectation for full year share repurchases of at least $1.5 billion, subject to available cash, market conditions, M&A opportunities and other ongoing capital allocation decisions. Please refer to Table 13 of our earnings release for a full list of our guidance.

我們將自由現金流預測下調至 18 億美元至 20 億美元之間，並維持我們對全年至少 15 億美元股票回購的預期，具體取決於可用現金、市場條件、併購機會和其他正在進行的資本分配決策。有關我們指導的完整列表，請參閱我們收益發布的表 13。

Turning now to our issuance outlook, which we have updated in light of market disruptions in the first quarter and the expectation that opportunistic activity will likely remain constrained heading into the second quarter of the year. We forecast global rated issuance to decline in the mid-teens percent range and investment-grade activity to decrease by approximately 10%.

現在轉向我們的發行展望，鑑於第一季度的市場動盪以及進入今年第二季度的機會活動可能仍將受到限制的預期，我們已對其進行了更新。我們預計全球評級發行量將下降 10% 左右，投資級活動將下降約 10%。

Leveraged finance issuance has been acutely impacted by market uncertainty with over 20 days of no high-yield activity during the quarter. We now project full year 2022 high-yield and leverage loan issuance to decline by approximately 40% and 30%, respectively. Similarly, we forecast a 10% decrease in financial institutions activity and a 5% decline in public, project and infrastructure finance activity.

槓桿融資發行受到市場不確定性的嚴重影響，本季度超過 20 天沒有高收益活動。我們現在預計 2022 年全年高收益和槓桿貸款發行量將分別下降約 40% 和 30%。同樣，我們預測金融機構活動將下降 10%，公共、項目和基礎設施融資活動將下降 5%。

In structured finance, we expect wider spreads and a weaker future leverage loan supply to impact the financing and creation of new CLOs for the balance of the year. We are, therefore, revising our outlook for structured finance issuance to decline by approximately 10%.

在結構性融資方面，我們預計利差擴大和未來槓桿貸款供應減弱將影響今年餘下時間的融資和新 CLO 的創建。因此，我們將結構性融資發行的前景修正為下降約 10%。

And finally, we are reducing our full year guidance for new mandates to a range of 850 to 950 despite a strong mandate result of almost 240 in the first quarter.

最後，儘管第一季度有近 240 的強勁授權結果，但我們正在將新授權的全年指導減少至 850 至 950 的範圍。

Due to our revised rated issuance outlook, we now forecast MIS revenue to decrease in the low double-digit percent range. We have proportionately lowered MIS' adjusted operating margin guidance to approximately 59%. This outlook remains above the pre-pandemic levels of 2018 and 2019, reflecting prudent spending on strategic investments and employee recognition, carefully balanced with ongoing cost efficiency initiatives.

由於我們修訂的評級發行展望，我們現在預測 MIS 收入將在兩位數的低位範圍內下降。我們已按比例將 MIS 調整後的營業利潤率指引下調至約 59%。這一前景仍高於 2018 年和 2019 年大流行前的水平，反映了在戰略投資和員工認可方面的審慎支出，並與正在進行的成本效率舉措謹慎平衡。

For MA, we are reaffirming our guidance for high-teens revenue growth supported by tailwinds from recent acquisitions, strong customer retention rates and ARR outlook as well as robust demand for our subscription-based products as we successfully execute on our integrated risk assessment strategy. We are maintaining MA's adjusted operating margin guidance of approximately 29% as we organically invest in the business to further accelerate top line growth.

對於 MA，我們重申我們對青少年收入增長的指導，這得益於近期收購的順風、強勁的客戶保留率和 ARR 前景以及對我們基於訂閱的產品的強勁需求，因為我們成功地執行了我們的綜合風險評估戰略。我們維持 MA 調整後的營業利潤率指引約為 29%，因為我們對該業務進行了有機投資以進一步加速收入增長。

I would like to provide additional insight into our disciplined approach to expense allocation and management, which we believe is critically important to ensure long-term sustainable growth as we move through the current short-term cyclical volatility impacting the MIS business. In the first quarter, operating expenses rose 16% over the prior year period. Approximately 13 percentage points of this growth were attributable to operational and integration-related costs associated with acquisitions completed in the prior 12 months. Operating growth, including organic investments and annual compensation increases, net of ongoing efficiency initiatives, contributed approximately 6 percentage points. Lower incentive compensation accruals and a strengthening U.S. dollar offset expense growth by approximately 1% and 2 percentage points, respectively.

我想就我們嚴格的費用分配和管理方法提供更多見解，我們認為在我們度過當前影響 MIS 業務的短期週期性波動時，這對於確保長期可持續增長至關重要。第一季度，營業費用比去年同期增長 16%。這一增長中約有 13 個百分點歸因於與前 12 個月完成的收購相關的運營和整合相關成本。運營增長，包括有機投資和年度薪酬增長，扣除持續的效率舉措，貢獻了大約 6 個百分點。較低的激勵薪酬應計和走強的美元分別抵消了大約 1% 和 2 個百分點的費用增長。

For the full year, we expect expense growth to be more than $100 million lower than our previous forecast, an increase now in the high single-digit percent range. This includes approximately 9 percentage points of growth attributable to acquisitions completed within the last 12 months.

對於全年，我們預計費用增長將比我們之前的預測低 1 億多美元，現在增長在高個位數百分比範圍內。這包括大約 9 個百分點的增長歸因於過去 12 個月內完成的收購。

We remain committed to invest an incremental $50 million and $150 million in 2022 to attract and retain world-class talent as well as to enhance our product capabilities and expand distribution to capture these new opportunities, respectively. We anticipate that these investments will be partially offset through our ongoing cost efficiency programs and lower incentive compensation accruals.

我們仍致力於在 2022 年增加 5,000 萬美元和 1.5 億美元的投資，以分別吸引和留住世界一流的人才，並增強我們的產品能力和擴大分銷渠道以抓住這些新機遇。我們預計這些投資將通過我們正在進行的成本效率計劃和較低的激勵薪酬應計部分抵消。

Last, we strongly believe that the market volatility in the first half of the year is cyclical in nature and that the business fundamentals of both MIS and MA remain firmly intact. Therefore, it is especially important that we prudently manage our expenses and continue investing through the cycle in order to realize our medium-term growth prospects.

最後，我們堅信今年上半年的市場波動具有周期性，MIS 和 MA 的業務基本面保持不變。因此，我們審慎管理開支並在整個週期內繼續投資以實現我們的中期增長前景尤為重要。

Before turning the call back over to Rob, I would like to highlight a few key takeaways. First, despite the challenging market environment, we delivered over $1.5 billion in revenue and an adjusted diluted EPS result of $2.89. Second, while short-term volatility and market cyclicality are affecting issuance levels, our business fundamentals remain strong. Third, MA's robust recurring revenue growth and high customer retention rates reflect the strong demand for our integrated risk assessment solutions and provide balance to Moody's overall results. Fourth, our new ARR metric provides further insight into our momentum towards achieving our medium-term targets. And finally, we remain focused on investing through the cycle to build market-leading products and capabilities in key strategic growth areas and balancing disciplined expense management with the return of stockholder capital.

在將電話轉回給 Rob 之前，我想強調一些關鍵要點。首先，儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，我們仍實現了超過 15 億美元的收入和 2.89 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益。其次，雖然短期波動和市場週期性正在影響發行水平，但我們的業務基本面依然強勁。第三，MA 強勁的經常性收入增長和高客戶保留率反映了對我們綜合風險評估解決方案的強勁需求，並平衡了穆迪的整體業績。第四，我們的新 ARR 指標提供了進一步了解我們實現中期目標的動力。最後，我們仍然專注於在整個週期內進行投資，以在關鍵戰略增長領域打造市場領先的產品和能力，並在嚴格的費用管理與股東資本回報之間取得平衡。

And with that, let me turn the call back over to Rob.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉回給 Rob。

Yes. Thanks, Mark. I want to close by recognizing the efforts of our people, and their continued dedication and hard work remain key to driving growth and resilience and delivering on our strategy as an integrated global risk assessment firm. And that's an additional reason despite the turbulent times in the issuance markets that I remain confident and optimistic about Moody's growth fundamentals. Our mission is even more critical as our customers rely on us to provide trusted insights and standards that help them make decisions with confidence in this environment.

是的。謝謝，馬克。最後，我要感謝我們員工的努力，他們的持續奉獻和辛勤工作仍然是推動增長和復原力以及實現我們作為一家綜合性全球風險評估公司戰略的關鍵。儘管發行市場處於動盪時期，這也是我對穆迪的增長基本面保持信心和樂觀的另一個原因。我們的使命更加重要，因為我們的客戶依靠我們提供值得信賴的洞察力和標準，幫助他們在這種環境中充滿信心地做出決策。

So that concludes our prepared remarks, and Mark and I would be pleased to take your questions. Operator?

我們準備好的發言到此結束，馬克和我很樂意回答你的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We'll first hear from Manav Patnaik of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們將首先聽取巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik 的來信。

I was just hoping on the issuance forecast, if you could give us some color on kind of the seasonality that you assumed, I guess? Is this current quarter going to be similar to the first quarter and then improve to the back half? Just any color there would be helpful.

我只是希望發行預測，如果你能給我們一些關於你假設的季節性的顏色，我猜？本季度是否會與第一季度相似，然後改善到後半部分？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. Sure, Manav. Maybe a way to think about this is kind of what's going on year-to-date and how do we think about what's going to happen year-to-go, what's implied in our outlook. And obviously, we're projecting full year issuance to be down mid-teens for 2022. Issuance was down 25% in Q1. So that implies a deceleration of issuance decline through the rest of the year, meaning that our year-to-go issuance will be down in the, call it, kind of low teens versus 2021 year-to-go.

是的。當然，馬納夫。也許考慮這一點的一種方式是年初至今發生的事情，以及我們如何看待未來一年會發生的事情，以及我們的展望中暗示的內容。顯然，我們預計到 2022 年全年發行量將下降十幾歲。第一季度的發行量下降了 25%。因此，這意味著在今年剩餘時間裡，發行量下降的速度會有所放緩，這意味著我們的未來發行量將在 2021 年的低點下降。

And I would say, Manav, in arriving at that outlook, most of the downward adjustment relative to our prior outlook is in Q2. And Q3 and Q4 represent, I'd say, much more modest decreases versus our original outlook.

我想說，Manav，在得出這一展望時，相對於我們之前的展望，大部分向下調整髮生在第二季度。我想說的是，與我們最初的展望相比，第三季度和第四季度的下降幅度要小得多。

And Manav, if I carry forward those remarks and thinking about adjusted diluted EPS, the lower MIS revenue results in the first 3 months of 2022 impacted the adjusted diluted EPS by approximately $0.80 versus the prior year period. And our latest full year 2022 outlook guidance of $11 at the midpoint implies an average quarterly diluted EPS result of $2.70 for the remainder of the year, and that includes an additional approximately $0.70 assumed adverse impact from issuance to the EPS result in the second quarter.

Manav，如果我繼續這些言論並考慮調整後的攤薄每股收益，2022 年前 3 個月的 MIS 收入較低，對調整後的攤薄每股收益產生了約 0.80 美元的影響。我們最新的 2022 年全年展望指引中點為 11 美元，這意味著今年剩餘時間的平均季度攤薄後每股收益為 2.70 美元，其中包括假設第二季度發行對每股收益結果產生的額外約 0.70 美元的不利影響。

Okay. Got it. That's overly helpful. And then I was just hoping you could give us a little bit more color on your new ESG and climate revenue breakout. How much is the climate piece that's coming from RMS? And I would have thought low double-digit growth sounds conservative, but just curious maybe it's just a matter of putting the offerings together.

好的。知道了。這太有幫助了。然後我只是希望你能給我們更多關於你的新 ESG 和氣候收入突破的色彩。來自 RMS 的氣候部分有多少？我會認為兩位數的低增長聽起來很保守，但只是好奇，也許這只是將產品組合在一起的問題。

Yes. Manav, it's Rob. I'm going to start, and then I might see if Mark wants to build on this. But if you think about just climate for a moment, there are really 2 core components, I think, to how we're thinking about commercializing around climate. The first is helping customers understand the physical risk relating to climate change. And there, we have some very substantial capabilities with RMS. And then second is around understanding carbon transition and understanding how companies are going to get to net zero.

是的。馬納夫，是羅布。我要開始了，然後我可能會看看 Mark 是否想以此為基礎。但是，如果您暫時只考慮氣候，我認為實際上有兩個核心組成部分，我們如何考慮圍繞氣候進行商業化。首先是幫助客戶了解與氣候變化相關的物理風險。在那裡，我們有一些非常重要的 RMS 功能。其次是了解碳轉型和了解公司將如何實現淨零排放。

Obviously, we've got an ESG component in this as well. And just to touch on just briefly in terms of the growth rate, and then I'll hand it to Mark, with RMS being a big part of this, obviously, we just acquired RMS recently. So we're just in the process of extending the product suite beyond our core insurance customer base. So I think you'll see an acceleration of growth over time.

顯然，我們在這方面也有一個 ESG 組件。只是簡單地談談增長率，然後我會把它交給馬克，RMS 是其中的重要組成部分，顯然，我們最近剛剛收購了 RMS。因此，我們只是在將產品套件擴展到我們的核心保險客戶群之外。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到增長的加速。

Yes. And Manav, we also looked -- thought through several considerations in determining what was the appropriate classification of climate source revenue and then include utilizing the guidance provided by the SEC and their proposed rules for climate-related disclosures, which really reflects the impact of severe weather events, direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions and some of the climate-related targets and transition plans. And we also did a leveraging of the industry standard publications on the TCFD, et cetera. And so when you think about the combined ESG and climate, we really only captured the revenues associated with climate-related perils, like floods, hurricanes, typhoons, wildfires and agriculture.

是的。 Manav，我們還研究了 - 在確定氣候源收入的適當分類時考慮了幾個因素，然後包括利用 SEC 提供的指導及其氣候相關披露的擬議規則，這確實反映了嚴重的影響天氣事件、直接和間接溫室氣體排放以及一些與氣候相關的目標和過渡計劃。我們還利用了關於 TCFD 等的行業標准出版物。因此，當您考慮 ESG 和氣候的結合時，我們實際上只獲得了與氣候相關風險相關的收入，例如洪水、颶風、颱風、野火和農業。

And as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, in April, we did launch our new platform, Moody's ESG360, and that will enhance the way investors and asset managers across our ESG and climate portfolio are able to get insights, and that's really through a very user-friendly platform that delivers sort of that comprehensive and decision-useful data scores and assessments.

正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們確實在 4 月推出了新平台 Moody's ESG360，這將增強我們的 ESG 和氣候投資組合中的投資者和資產管理人能夠獲得洞察力的方式，而這確實是通過一個非常用戶友好的平台，可提供全面且對決策有用的數據評分和評估。

Yes. And Manav, the last thing I'd say, I've mentioned it on the prepared remarks, but we want to break this out because we want the investor community -- I have a sense of the scale that we've got across, not just ESG, but climate. Climate is a very, very important part of the E in ESG. And as you heard Mark described, we have a real product suite there that we're going to continue to build on. So we wanted to give some visibility to investors in that regard.

是的。 Manav，我要說的最後一件事，我已經在準備好的評論中提到了它，但我們想要打破這一點，因為我們想要投資者社區——我對我們所跨越的規模有所了解，不僅是 ESG，還有氣候。氣候是 ESG 中非常非常重要的一部分。正如您聽到 Mark 所描述的那樣，我們在那裡有一個真正的產品套件，我們將繼續在此基礎上進行構建。所以我們想在這方面給投資者一些可見性。

And next, we'll hear from Alex Kramm with UBS.

接下來，我們將聽取瑞銀的 Alex Kramm 的來信。

Just coming back to the issuance outlook, of course. In your prepared remarks, it sounded like you're pretty confident that all the medium-term indicators are still intact, and it almost sounds like you feel like the second half of the year should almost normalize again. So just wondering what the risk is that you're being a little bit too optimistic here. When you meet with -- when your analysts meet with corporates, are you hearing, for example, more appetite for deleveraging? And would that be something where that $4 trillion in refinancing wall at some point becomes irrelevant because we're going into this deleveraging cycle? So any color of what you're hearing that there may be a little bit more of a structural change. I know it's early.

當然，只是回到發行前景。在你準備好的講話中，聽起來你對所有中期指標仍然完好無損很有信心，聽起來你幾乎感覺下半年應該會再次恢復正常。所以只是想知道你在這裡有點過於樂觀的風險是什麼。例如，當您與分析師會面時，您是否聽到對去槓桿化的更多興趣？由於我們正在進入這個去槓桿週期，這是否會導致 4 萬億美元的再融資牆在某個時候變得無關緊要？所以你聽到的任何顏色都可能有更多的結構變化。我知道現在還早。

Yes. Alex, good to have you on the call. So as I said in the kind of year-to-go, we do -- we have adjusted the forecast for each of Q2, Q3 and Q4 off of our original outlook. It's just that there's a more significant downward adjustment in Q2. And so we think that conditions will, therefore, improve through the balance of the year.

是的。亞歷克斯，很高興你接電話。因此，正如我在過去一年中所說的那樣，我們確實 - 我們已經根據我們最初的展望調整了對第二季度、第三季度和第四季度的預測。只是第二季度的下調幅度更大。因此，我們認為情況將在今年餘下時間有所改善。

But maybe what would be helpful, Alex, is there's a question obviously from many on the call, are we being too aggressive or are we being too conservative, right? And so maybe to help you answer that, let me give you a little bit of our thinking in terms of what could provide some upside here and what could provide some downside.

但也許什麼會有幫助，亞歷克斯，在電話會議上是否有很多人明顯提出一個問題，我們是過於激進還是過於保守，對嗎？所以也許可以幫助你回答這個問題，讓我給你一點我們的想法，看看什麼可以在這裡帶來一些好處，什麼可以帶來一些負面影響。

And I think the quickest resolution to some of this market volatility would be a resolution of what's going on in Ukraine. And obviously, that's significantly impacted the European markets. And we've seen a high-yield market in Europe shut down for a long length of time and just recently opened. And that would allow these infrequent issuers who have been sitting on the sidelines to potentially come back to market.

而且我認為解決這種市場波動的最快方法是解決烏克蘭正在發生的事情。顯然，這對歐洲市場產生了重大影響。我們已經看到歐洲的一個高收益市場長期關閉，最近才開放。這將使這些一直處於觀望狀態的罕見發行人有可能重返市場。

And now an interesting stat, in the U.S., issuance from infrequent issuers was down almost 50% in the first quarter of 2022 versus the prior year. That's a big number. So a lot of companies were sitting out the volatility. And as you said, their balance sheets are in good shape. There -- the impacts of interest rate hikes. And of course, we've got the maturity wall that you mentioned.

現在有一個有趣的統計數據，在美國，2022 年第一季度不常發行人的發行量與去年同期相比下降了近 50%。這是一個很大的數字。因此，很多公司都坐視了波動。正如你所說，他們的資產負債表狀況良好。那裡——加息的影響。當然，我們有你提到的成熟度牆。

And the real question is are we going to start to see some pull forward as issuers realize that rates are increasing, and we really haven't seen that to any material extent in the first quarter because I think the market volatility kind of overwhelmed those that wanted to potentially get into the market and pull forward.

真正的問題是，隨著發行人意識到利率正在上升，我們是否會開始看到一些進步，而我們在第一季度真的沒有看到任何實質性的進展，因為我認為市場波動有點壓倒了那些希望有可能進入市場並向前推進。

Our leverage loan expectation, you heard, still down pretty significantly off of a record year, but we do have a healthy first-time mandate pipeline. And so actually, the first quarter of this year was our second strongest first quarter for first-time mandates that we've had, but a lot of those issuers just haven't come to market, again, because of the volatility. So we've got -- I would say there's kind of a backlog. And of course, we also haircut our M&A-driven issuance assumptions as well. So those are the kinds of things that I think could provide a little bit of upside.

你聽說，我們的槓桿貸款預期仍然比創紀錄的一年顯著下降，但我們確實有一個健康的首次授權渠道。因此，實際上，今年第一季度是我們獲得的首次授權第二強的第一季度，但由於波動性，這些發行人中有很多還沒有上市。所以我們有 - 我會說有一種積壓。當然，我們也削減了併購驅動的發行假設。所以這些是我認為可以提供一點好處的東西。

In terms of headwinds, look, one thing that's on everybody's minds is, depending on what the Fed does, could we see the economy move into recession. We don't see that from where we sit right now, but that's a question mark.

就逆風而言，每個人都在想的一件事是，取決於美聯儲的所作所為，我們是否會看到經濟陷入衰退。我們現在坐在那裡看不到這一點，但這是一個問號。

Second, and I've talked about this on the call, is another risk is just the market understanding the actions of various central banks. And obviously, there's been an enormous amount of stimulus put into the markets over the last several years. And so it's when the market is surprised or doesn't understand that you see real volatility in the markets. And we saw that with the temper tantrum. You've seen a little bit of that in the first quarter, and that then creates these open and close windows of issuance.

第二，我在電話會議上談到了這個，另一個風險是市場對各個央行的行動的理解。顯然，在過去的幾年裡，市場已經投入了大量的刺激措施。因此，當市場感到驚訝或不明白你看到市場真正的波動時。我們在脾氣暴躁時看到了這一點。您在第一季度已經看到了一點，然後創建了這些打開和關閉的發行窗口。

I would also say that just in thinking about kind of the bigger picture, of course, we've talked about a stagflation scenario would be something that would be negative, where we've got an increase in interest rates, but it's not because of economic growth. And so again, we don't see that from where we sit today, but that's something that we're keeping an eye on.

我還要說，只是在考慮更大的圖景時，當然，我們已經談到滯脹情景將是負面的，我們會提高利率，但這不是因為經濟增長。再說一次，我們從今天的位置看不到這一點，但這是我們一直在關注的事情。

Okay. Helpful. I'll make my follow-up, a quick follow-up then. On the recurring revenues in MIS, any outlook you can be a little bit specific on? I mean, we've had a lot of issuance over the last couple of years. I would expect recurring revenues in that segment still to benefit from that. But just wondering with your new adjusted outlook here, is there an implication that recurring revenues may start to come off a little bit in MIS, too? Or how should those trend?

好的。有幫助。我會跟進，然後快速跟進。關於 MIS 的經常性收入，您有什麼具體的展望嗎？我的意思是，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經發行了很多。我預計該細分市場的經常性收入仍會從中受益。但只是想知道您在這裡調整後的新前景是否意味著經常性收入也可能開始在 MIS 中有所下降？或者那些趨勢應該如何？

Alex, this is Mark. Just answering your question with respect to MIS, and then I'll give a little bit on MA. I wasn't sure which segment you are referencing. But on the MIS side, we are looking for an increase in recurring revenue from obviously 2021's mix to 2022. You could think about it almost as a 2/3-1/3 is embedded within our outlook for the full year.

亞歷克斯，這是馬克。只是回答你關於 MIS 的問題，然後我會稍微介紹一下 MA。我不確定您引用的是哪個部分。但在 MIS 方面，我們正在尋找從 2021 年到 2022 年的經常性收入增加。您幾乎可以將其視為 2/3-1/3 包含在我們的全年展望中。

On the MA side, you'll see remarkable consistency really from the first quarter of 2022 through to the full year guidance that we're giving in terms of that mix between recurring and transaction-based revenue, again as we develop more SaaS-based solutions, which we can discuss later on.

在 MA 方面，您將看到從 2022 年第一季度到我們在經常性收入和基於交易的收入之間的混合方面給出的全年指導，以及我們開發更多基於 SaaS 的顯著一致性解決方案，我們可以稍後討論。

Yes. It was on MIS, but I appreciate it.

是的。它在 MIS 上，但我很感激。

Next, we'll hear from Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將聽取摩根士丹利的 Toni Kaplan 的來信。

You lowered the MIS margin guide, and you gave a good bridge of how that compares to '21. Just in terms of the quarter itself, were there specific areas that we're seeing cost pressure outside of the revenue flow-through?

您降低了 MIS 保證金指南，並為與 21 年的比較提供了一個很好的橋樑。就本季度本身而言，我們是否在收入流動之外看到了特定領域的成本壓力？

And then just thinking about the rest of the year, obviously, incentive comp will be helpful to offset as issuance is a little bit weaker this year. But any other additional areas where you could maybe find some efficiencies to help the margin?

然後想想今年剩下的時間，很明顯，激勵補償將有助於抵消，因為今年的發行量有點弱。但是在其他任何其他領域，您可能會發現一些效率來幫助提高利潤率？

Sure, Toni. So in the first quarter, the MIS adjusted operating margin was 58.6%. And that was in line with what we saw in the pre-pandemic margin levels, if you think about 2018 or '19, of around 58%. The contraction from the record prior year period was primarily driven by a decline in revenue attributable to volatility in the capital markets, which is really resulting from that heightened uncertainty given sort of the quarter's geopolitical events.

當然，托尼。因此，在第一季度，MIS 調整後的營業利潤率為 58.6%。這與我們在大流行前的利潤率水平上看到的一致，如果你想想 2018 年或 19 年，大約 58%。較上年創紀錄的收縮主要是由於資本市場波動導致收入下降，這實際上是由於本季度地緣政治事件導致的不確定性增加。

If we exclude some of the onetime expenses related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the quarter, which reflected personnel-related costs and provision for bad debts, MIS expenses were actually been flat year-over-year. And that's inclusive of the financial cost of attracting, retaining best-in-class analytical talent across the MIS lines of business as well as strengthening -- we're taking actions to strengthen our relevance and support future growth. Certainly, the incentive compensation does act as a natural ballast or set to that. But we do continue to look for additional opportunity for operating efficiency in the business, such that we can then reinvest that money back into our ratings processes.

如果我們排除本季度與俄羅斯-烏克蘭衝突相關的一些一次性費用，這些費用反映了與人事相關的成本和壞賬準備金，MIS 費用實際上與去年同期持平。這包括吸引、保留跨 MIS 業務線的一流分析人才以及加強的財務成本——我們正在採取行動加強我們的相關性並支持未來的增長。當然，激勵補償確實起到了天然鎮流器的作用或設置為這樣。但我們確實會繼續尋找提高業務運營效率的額外機會，以便我們可以將這筆資金重新投入到我們的評級流程中。

Great. And then it looked like you increased the CapEx guidance for the year. Obviously, I'm just wondering what kind of initiatives that you're ramping up there. Is it related to just growth opportunities? Or is it more related to acquisition or just anything else?

偉大的。然後看起來你增加了今年的資本支出指導。顯然，我只是想知道你在那裡推出了什麼樣的舉措。它與增長機會有關嗎？還是與收購或其他任何事情更相關？

Toni, absolutely. The answer is a little bit of both, but maybe let me broaden out your question a little bit, and then I'll get directly on to the CapEx part of the answer.

托尼，絕對的。答案是兩者都有一點，但也許讓我稍微擴大你的問題，然後我將直接進入答案的資本支出部分。

So Moody's has a very strong track record of free cash flow generation. Cumulatively between 2018 and 2021, our weighted average free cash flow to U.S. GAAP net in conversion -- net income conversion was over 100%. And this conversion rate holds based on our revised full year 2022 free cash flow guidance range, which at the midpoint of $1.9 billion implies approximately 100% conversion ratio.

因此，穆迪在產生自由現金流方面有著非常出色的記錄。從 2018 年到 2021 年，我們的加權平均自由現金流以美國 GAAP 為淨轉換——淨收入轉換超過 100%。這一轉換率基於我們修訂的 2022 年全年自由現金流指導範圍，在 19 億美元的中點意味著大約 100% 的轉換率。

We have also revised our full year 2022 CapEx guidance to be within the range of $250 million to $300 million, and that's really to reflect a combination of a number of factors. And those include sort of the ongoing investment, especially around SaaS-based product development for both new and upgraded customer solutions, RMS integration activity, office enhancements related to our workplace of the future program and then really corporate IT asset purchases as we refresh our PC hardware and some of the associated peripherals.

我們還修訂了我們的 2022 年全年資本支出指南，將其控制在 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元之間，這確實反映了多種因素的結合。其中包括正在進行的投資，尤其是圍繞基於 SaaS 的新客戶解決方案和升級客戶解決方案的產品開發、RMS 集成活動、與我們未來工作場所計劃相關的辦公室增強功能，以及當我們更新 PC 時真正的企業 IT 資產購買硬件和一些相關的外圍設備。

Maybe one last comment here. Our guidance for EPS and for cash flow at the midpoint does imply sort of a little bit of a disconnect, and you're able to resolve that by considering really the following 2 factors. Really free cash flow is expected to outpace the adjusted diluted EPS when you correct for the tax payments in 2021 associated with the potential U.S. corporate tax rate changes, which ultimately did not occur, as well as some of the changes associated with the non-U.S. tax settlement in the fourth quarter of last year.

也許這裡有最後一條評論。我們對每股收益和中點現金流的指導確實暗示了一些脫節，您可以通過真正考慮以下兩個因素來解決這個問題。當您更正 2021 年與潛在的美國公司稅率變化相關的稅款時，真正的自由現金流預計將超過調整後的攤薄每股收益，這最終沒有發生，以及與非美國公司相關的一些變化。去年第四季度的稅收結算。

Next, we'll hear from George Tong of Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將聽取高盛的 George Tong 的來信。

Just wanted to dive into margins a little bit. You're seeing, obviously, higher input costs, wage inflation. How do you balance the higher input costs with investments over the next year? Where would you see puts and takes on either side of the equation?

只是想稍微深入一點。很明顯，你看到了更高的投入成本和工資上漲。您如何平衡較高的投入成本與明年的投資？你會在哪裡看到等式兩邊的看跌期權？

George, we continue to carefully evaluate opportunities to invest for sustainable revenue growth while balancing those investments against cost efficiency initiatives that really buttress or further expand our adjusted operating margin, and this is especially important in volatile market conditions.

喬治先生，我們將繼續仔細評估投資機會以實現可持續的收入增長，同時平衡這些投資與真正支持或進一步擴大我們調整後的營業利潤率的成本效率舉措，這在動蕩的市場條件下尤為重要。

Given that we do view today's prevailing market dynamics as cyclical rather than structural in nature, we plan to invest through the cycle to support our medium-term growth ambitions. And these investments are going to be focused on customer enhancements, new products, go-to-market activities and really growth in our sales force. And collectively, they ensure execution of our strategic road maps in the high-priority markets like KYC and compliance, ESG and climate, banking, insurance, for example.

鑑於我們確實將當今的普遍市場動態視為周期性而非結構性的，我們計劃在整個週期內進行投資以支持我們的中期增長目標。這些投資將集中在客戶增強、新產品、上市活動以及我們銷售隊伍的真正增長上。他們共同確保在 KYC 和合規、ESG 和氣候、銀行、保險等高優先級市場執行我們的戰略路線圖。

Our incentive compensation accruals, as we mentioned a moment ago, will flex based on the actual performance as compared to the financial targets that we set at the start of the year. So they do act as a natural expense leader.

正如我們剛才提到的，我們的激勵薪酬應計將根據實際表現與我們在年初設定的財務目標進行比較。因此，他們確實充當了天然的開支領導者。

And we've also learned since the beginning of the pandemic that many business activities can be successfully performed remotely. And while travel and entertainment costs will rise compared to the prior 2 years, we will prioritize some of the customer-facing travel when needed.

我們還了解到，自大流行開始以來，許多業務活動都可以遠程成功執行。雖然與前 2 年相比，差旅和娛樂成本會有所上升，但我們將在需要時優先考慮一些面向客戶的差旅。

And then lastly, I'd like to add, we will look to continue to create incremental cost efficiencies through the utilization of lower-cost locations and vendor management strategies as well as further rationalization of our real estate footprint.

最後，我想補充一點，我們將尋求通過利用低成本地點和供應商管理策略以及進一步合理化我們的房地產足跡來繼續提高成本效率。

Got it. That's helpful. And to the extent that you are potentially adjusting your investments to lower them a bit in the context of rising input costs, which areas would you potentially invest less in as you look to adapt to the current changing input cost environment?

知道了。這很有幫助。在投入成本上升的情況下，您可能會調整投資以降低投資，當您希望適應當前不斷變化的投入成本環境時，您可能會減少哪些領域的投資？

We remain on track to spend approximately $150 million on our organic strategic investments in 2022, which like 2021 will be weighted towards the second half of the year. And those investments are really going to be focused on, again, increasing our sales force, our go-to-market initiatives, et cetera.

我們仍有望在 2022 年花費約 1.5 億美元用於我們的有機戰略投資，與 2021 年一樣，該投資將在下半年進行加權。這些投資實際上將再次集中在增加我們的銷售隊伍、我們的市場推廣計劃等方面。

We also, as mentioned in the script, maintain our expectation for an additional $50 million of investments in our employees to attract and retain the best talent in order to achieve our growth aspirations. So that will not change.

如腳本中所述，我們還保持對員工額外投資 5000 萬美元的預期，以吸引和留住最優秀的人才，以實現我們的增長願望。所以這不會改變。

Our guidance for expenses over the full year assumes an increase in spending from the first to the fourth quarter in the range of about $70 million to $90 million, and that's because we anticipate steadily increasing organic investment activity through the cycle, and that will be weighted towards the second half of the year. And within that ramp, you should expect the growth from the first to the second quarter to be in the range of $30 million to $40 million, and that's going to be driven, in part, by the timing of our annual merit and promotional increases, which took place in April.

我們對全年支出的指導假設第一季度到第四季度的支出增加在 7000 萬美元到 9000 萬美元之間，這是因為我們預計整個週期內的有機投資活動將穩步增加，這將被加權到下半年。在這個坡道內，您應該預計第一季度到第二季度的增長將在 3000 萬美元到 4000 萬美元之間，這在一定程度上是由我們年度績效和促銷增長的時間推動的，這發生在四月。

Next, we'll hear from Andrew Steinerman of JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將聽取摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman 的發言。

It's Andrew. Two questions. On the current rated issuance forecast of down mid-teens for the year, are you assuming that issuance is down each of the quarters of '22? That's my first question.

是安德魯。兩個問題。在當前的年度評級發行預測中，您是否假設發行量在 22 年的每個季度都在下降？這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is I wanted to know how RMS revenues grew like-for-like in the first quarter. I assume RMS revenues in the quarter were $77 million. I get that by just looking at the M&A contribution for the Decision Solutions subsegment for first quarter.

我的第二個問題是我想知道 RMS 收入在第一季度是如何增長的。我假設本季度 RMS 收入為 7700 萬美元。我通過查看第一季度決策解決方案子細分市場的併購貢獻來了解這一點。

Andrew, it's Rob. So to answer the first question, yes. And again, in line with some of the earlier commentary, we would expect most of that to be in the second quarter, most of that kind of downward adjustment.

安德魯，我是羅布。所以回答第一個問題，是的。同樣，與之前的一些評論一致，我們預計其中大部分將發生在第二季度，其中大部分是向下調整。

Your question -- your second question was about RMS growth. And I guess I would say, just at a high level, we have expected RMS growth to accelerate through the balance of the year. And in fact, sales are performing as or even slightly better than we have expected. So from our perspective, RMS is performing kind of exactly as we have planned.

您的問題——您的第二個問題是關於 RMS 增長。而且我想我會說，在高水平上，我們預計 RMS 增長將在今年餘下時間加速。事實上，銷售表現與我們預期的一樣，甚至略好於我們的預期。因此，從我們的角度來看，RMS 的表現完全符合我們的計劃。

And I guess I would point out a couple of important things that are going on there. Obviously, we've got the corporate integration, but we've really been focused on aligning the sales teams. And I've mentioned in the past, we've had some very good dialogue with some of our mutual customers about things that we can do together. So we're seeing a lot of excitement from our customers. And we've started now on some of the joint product development.

我想我會指出一些正在發生的重要事情。顯然，我們已經進行了企業整合，但我們確實專注於調整銷售團隊。我過去曾提到，我們與一些共同的客戶就我們可以一起做的事情進行了很好的對話。因此，我們從客戶那裡看到了很多興奮。我們現在已經開始了一些聯合產品開發。

And one interesting example maybe to highlight is around commercial mortgage-backed securities. We have mapped every property that's got an outstanding loan in a CMBS security with RMS data, and that allows us to help our customers better understand the physical risk associated with their portfolios. And really, we're now leveraging that in both our ratings and research in a way that I think is very differentiated. That's taking that RMS capability and then being able to bring that to both our issuers and our investor customers.

可能要強調的一個有趣的例子是商業抵押貸款支持證券。我們已經使用 RMS 數據映射了 CMBS 證券中所有未償還貸款的財產，這使我們能夠幫助我們的客戶更好地了解與其投資組合相關的物理風險。實際上，我們現在正在以一種我認為非常差異化的方式在我們的評級和研究中利用這一點。那就是利用 RMS 功能，然後能夠將其帶給我們的發行人和我們的投資者客戶。

So again, we believe that we are on track. We're feeling good about it, the integration and product development, and sales execution is going at pace.

因此，我們再次相信我們正在走上正軌。我們對此感覺良好，集成和產品開發以及銷售執行進展順利。

Ashish Sabadra of RBC Capital Markets.

RBC 資本市場的 Ashish Sabadra。

So maybe just drilling down further on the MIS transaction revenues. Historically, the revenues grew faster than issuance because you have the pricing tailwind. But here, given that some of the higher revenue yield like high yield and lev loans are under pressure, how should we think about the dynamic of transaction revenue growth versus issuance growth for this year? Any color?

因此，也許只是進一步深入了解 MIS 交易收入。從歷史上看，收入增長快於發行，因為你有定價順風。但在這裡，鑑於高收益和低收入貸款等一些較高的收入收益率面臨壓力，我們應該如何看待今年交易收入增長與發行增長的動態？任何顏色？

Yes, Ashish. So we frequently talk about on this call, the impact of mix as it relates to issuance, and this is one of those quarters where mix worked against us from a revenue growth standpoint. In this case, our transaction revenues were a little bit lower or the decline was a little higher than the decline in issuance activity. Obviously, in turn, our 20% down benefited from recurring revenue growth.

是的，阿希什。因此，我們經常在電話會議上談論混合對發行的影響，這是從收入增長的角度來看混合對我們不利的季度之一。在這種情況下，我們的交易收入略低或略高於發行活動的下降。顯然，反過來，我們 20% 的下降受益於經常性收入增長。

But really, what was going on here, Ashish, is the leveraged finance markets were pretty anemic in the first quarter. And you heard me talk about the dearth of infrequent issuers. All of that stuff contributes then to an unfavorable mix for us in the first quarter.

但實際上，Ashish 的情況是，第一季度槓桿金融市場相當疲軟。你聽到我談到缺乏不經常發行的人。所有這些都導致第一季度對我們不利。

That's very helpful. And then maybe as we think about -- maybe Rob, as we think about the midterm guidance, right, given that '22 is going to be worse compared to what your prior expectations were, how should we think about that as a base for the midterm guidance? Does that help you get a better base for out-years? Or do you think these headwinds and muted growth continues over the midterm? So any color on that low to -- sorry, low to mid-single-digit MIS revenue growth guidance over the midterm?

這很有幫助。然後也許正如我們所想的那樣——也許是 Rob，當我們考慮中期指導時，對，鑑於 '22 與您之前的預期相比會更糟，我們應該如何將其視為基礎中期指導？這是否有助於您在未來幾年獲得更好的基礎？或者你認為這些不利因素和緩慢的增長會在中期繼續嗎？那麼，中期 MIS 收入增長指引的低到 - 抱歉，低到中個位數的任何顏色？

Yes, Ashish. It's -- Mark and I were having a conversation about this. And it's interesting if you step back and compare our revised 2022 guidance to the last pre-pandemic year of 2019, and I think we all understand that 2020 and 2021 were pretty unusual years.

是的，阿希什。這是——馬克和我正在討論這個問題。如果您退後一步，將我們修訂後的 2022 年指導與 2019 年大流行前的最後一年進行比較，這很有趣，我想我們都明白 2020 年和 2021 年是非常不尋常的年份。

But if you compare our 2022 guidance to 2019, the issuance will be up double digits, and MIS revenues will be up in the high teens percent range over 2019. Now if you annualize that, so I turn that into a CAGR, that's something like low single-digit growth for issuance and mid-single-digit growth for revenues. And that's remarkably similar to both the periods before the pandemic. I look back at kind of 2012 to 2016, we had a revenue CAGR in the mid-single-digit range, but it's also very similar to our medium-term guidance.

但是，如果您將我們 2022 年的指導與 2019 年進行比較，發行量將增長兩位數，而 MIS 收入將在 2019 年的 10% 以上。發行量低個位數增長，收入中個位數增長。這與大流行之前的兩個時期非常相似。我回顧一下 2012 年到 2016 年，我們的收入複合年增長率在中個位數範圍內，但這也與我們的中期指導非常相似。

I talked about the things that we believe are still intact that support the medium-term guidance. And on the last call, we talked about, hey, look, in the first year or 2 of this medium-term horizon, we expected the growth to be more muted. And in fact, I think we're certainly seeing that. But for the reasons I described, we still feel good about the medium-term growth outlook for MIS.

我談到了我們認為仍然完好無損的支持中期指導的事情。在最後一次電話會議上，我們談到，嘿，看，在這個中期視野的第一年或第二年，我們預計增長會更加緩慢。事實上，我認為我們確實看到了這一點。但出於我所描述的原因，我們仍然對 MIS 的中期增長前景感到滿意。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯·尼古拉斯、威廉·布萊爾。

The first one I had was just on some comments you made in the prepared remarks and in the press release about your risk management offerings providing increased value during uncertain times. I was just wondering if you could maybe expand a bit more on that and maybe how you would expect that to kind of flush its way through in terms of financial performance or growth. Is that leading to more productive pricing conversations? Are new clients coming to you with that in mind in a choppier market to have new product or upsell conversations that you might not have otherwise had? Just trying to figure out what that could mean in terms of performance for the business.

我的第一個評論只是關於你在準備好的評論和新聞稿中關於你的風險管理產品在不確定時期提供增加價值的一些評論。我只是想知道您是否可以對此進行更多擴展，也許您會如何期望它在財務業績或增長方面有所突破。這會導致更有成效的定價對話嗎？在波濤洶湧的市場中，新客戶是否會帶著這一點來找您，以獲得您可能沒有的新產品或追加銷售對話？只是想弄清楚這對業務績效可能意味著什麼。

Yes. Great question, and the answer is absolutely. When you think about it from our customer's perspective, we've talked about this, they're just dealing with a wider range of more interconnected risks and having to figure out how to deal with all that. And so increasingly, our customers are wanting to be able to kind of connect the dots. And so I think that the expansion of our capabilities and thinking about it from this concept of providing integrated perspectives on risk is allowing us to do 2 things. It's allowing us to add new logos, so new customer segments, customer types as well as deepen our relationships with existing customers.

是的。很好的問題，答案是絕對的。當您從我們客戶的角度考慮時，我們已經談到了這一點，他們只是在處理更廣泛的相互關聯的風險，並且必須弄清楚如何處理所有這些風險。因此，我們的客戶越來越希望能夠將這些點連接起來。因此，我認為擴展我們的能力並從提供綜合風險視角的概念進行思考，使我們能夠做兩件事。它允許我們添加新的徽標、新的客戶群、客戶類型以及加深我們與現有客戶的關係。

So I'll give you an example. We have been expanding into now serving social media companies that have e-commerce platforms who want to better understand who's transacting on the platform. We've been now extending into serving crypto and digital asset companies, same thing. We -- so there's a great example of new customer segments that we're able to serve, but also you take our core customer base.

所以我給你舉個例子。我們已經擴展到現在為擁有電子商務平台的社交媒體公司提供服務，這些公司希望更好地了解誰在平台上進行交易。我們現在已經擴展到為加密和數字資產公司提供服務，同樣的事情。我們 - 所以有一個很好的例子，說明我們能夠服務的新客戶群，但你也可以利用我們的核心客戶群。

So I'm thinking of -- we had an Asian bank that we serve, and we helped them around stress testing. And they came to us and said, "Hey, can you help us measure and manage ESG and climate risk because we're going to have to comply with regulatory stress tests that incorporate these factors?" And the answer is, absolutely, we can help you with that. And so that's a great example of them being able to broaden and deepen the relationship with that customer. So like I said, I think you're going to see it 2 ways: new customer segments and expanding our relationship with existing customers.

所以我在想——我們為一家亞洲銀行服務，我們幫助他們進行壓力測試。他們來找我們說：“嘿，你能幫助我們衡量和管理 ESG 和氣候風險嗎，因為我們將不得不遵守包含這些因素的監管壓力測試？”答案是，我們絕對可以為您提供幫助。因此，這是他們能夠擴大和加深與該客戶的關係的一個很好的例子。所以就像我說的，我認為你會看到兩種方式：新的客戶群和擴大我們與現有客戶的關係。

Got it. And then for my follow-up, just curious, I know you're confident that this is more of a cyclical headwind in the near term to issuance than secular. Does that change your appetite for M&A in the near term or at least until MIS revenue or issuance trends stabilize? Or is it pretty much business as usual on that front?

知道了。然後對於我的後續行動，只是好奇，我知道你相信這在短期內對發行來說更像是一個週期性的逆風，而不是長期的。這是否會在短期內或至少在 MIS 收入或發行趨勢穩定之前改變您對併購的興趣？還是在這方面幾乎照常營業？

Yes. I guess I would say kind of our M&A program is not really kind of dictated by what's going on in the issuance markets. We're very much focused on the product road maps that we've got in terms of what our customers want and need. In fact, you've actually seen us make an investment in the MIS business in the first quarter with our acquisition of GCR in Africa, and that is a very long-term play for us. So we're going to keep investing in that franchise. It's a great business. And on the MA side, we'll be guided by customer needs and product road maps.

是的。我想我會說，我們的併購計劃並不是真正受發行市場上正在發生的事情所決定的。我們非常關注我們根據客戶的需求和需求制定的產品路線圖。事實上，您實際上已經看到我們在第一季度通過在非洲收購 GCR 對 MIS 業務進行了投資，這對我們來說是一個非常長期的遊戲。因此，我們將繼續投資於該特許經營權。這是一項偉大的事業。在 MA 方面，我們將以客戶需求和產品路線圖為指導。

Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

克雷格·休伯，休伯研究合作夥伴。

Great. My first question, Rob and Mark, what -- sort of curious, what sort of macro environment are you expecting here, say, by year-end for the U.S. treasury rate? Or do you think -- trying to -- and also the Fed rate at year-end, what's sort of embedded in your mind when you put out this global debt issuance outlook of down mid-teens? That's my first question.

偉大的。我的第一個問題，Rob 和 Mark，有點好奇，你在這裡期待什麼樣的宏觀環境，比如說，到年底美國國債利率？或者你認為 - 試圖 - 以及年底的美聯儲利率，當你提出這種低於 10 歲左右的全球債務發行前景時，你的腦海中會嵌入什麼？這是我的第一個問題。

Craig, as we think through to the outlook for the year and then a little bit beyond, our central case does model continued GDP expansion, in part, over the year but also, in part, of the medium term at a slightly higher level than what prevailed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. And that's really based on the GDP full cost that we use internally from Moody's Analytics. So you could think about between '21 and '26 in average annual real GDP growth in the range of around 2.5% as we look out.

克雷格，當我們對今年的前景進行思考時，我們的核心案例確實模擬了 GDP 持續擴張，部分是在一年內，部分是在略高於中期的水平在 COVID-19 大流行之前盛行的情況。這實際上是基於我們從穆迪分析內部使用的 GDP 全部成本。因此，您可以考慮在 21 年至 26 年之間，我們觀察到的年均實際 GDP 增長率在 2.5% 左右。

On your question around interest rates, we have again applied sort of the insights from Moody's Analytics database, and we model out an increase in the 10-year rate from approximately 2% to 3% this year to around 4% by 2027, to answer your question.

關於你關於利率的問題，我們再次應用了穆迪分析數據庫的一些見解，我們模擬了 10 年利率從今年的大約 2% 到 3% 到 2027 年的大約 4% 的增長，以回答你的問題。

What about the Fed interest rate by year-end? What's sort of embedded there in your macro outlook here?

美聯儲年底利率如何？你的宏觀前景中嵌入了什麼？

We are assuming approximately 6 interest rate increases during the course of the year, and that would be consistent, I think, with consensus in the market. We're not looking to model anything different or distinct from that.

我們假設在一年中大約有 6 次加息，我認為這與市場共識是一致的。我們不希望建模任何與此不同或不同的東西。

Jeff Sibler (sic) [Silber], BMO Capital Markets.

Jeff Sibler (原文如此) [Silber]，BMO 資本市場。

That's close enough. I know it's late, I'll ask one question. You mentioned some of the spending you're doing, I don't know if it was staff -- retention staff recruiting. Can we talk about the environment? Has it changed over the past few weeks or months given what's going on in the overall economy?

那已經足夠接近了。我知道已經晚了，我會問一個問題。你提到了你正在做的一些支出，我不知道是不是員工 - 保留員工招聘。我們可以談談環境嗎？考慮到整體經濟的情況，過去幾週或幾個月的情況是否發生了變化？

Yes. I'd say just at a very high level, I mean it's still a competitive job market. So yes, there's been a -- some form of kind of correction in the equity markets. But we're very focused on, I'd say, kind of broadly our employee value proposition. And compensation is a very important part of that, and Mark talked about the investments that we're making to make sure we have competitive compensation in the market, but there are a number of other things that go into it as well. And we're finding that workplace flexibility is really important, and we have leaned into flexibility. We've done a great job over the last 2 years. And so we're going to continue to do that, and we think that, that's going to be a competitive advantage for us in terms of attracting talent.

是的。我想說只是在一個非常高的水平上，我的意思是它仍然是一個競爭激烈的就業市場。所以是的，股票市場出現了某種形式的修正。但我想說，我們非常關注我們的員工價值主張。薪酬是其中非常重要的一部分，馬克談到了我們為確保我們在市場上獲得有競爭力的薪酬而進行的投資，但還有很多其他的事情。我們發現工作場所的靈活性非常重要，而且我們傾向於靈活性。在過去的 2 年裡，我們做得很好。所以我們將繼續這樣做，我們認為，這將成為我們在吸引人才方面的競爭優勢。

Owen Lau of Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的歐文·劉。

I want to go back to MA. Your organic ARR was 9% for the quarter, and I think you introduced the target of low double-digit growth this year. Maybe could you please talk about the driver of this acceleration for the rest of this year? Is it more driven by KYC and compliance, Rob, you talked about or ESG and climate or any other products? If you can quantify for us, that would be great.

我想回MA。本季度您的有機 ARR 為 9%，我認為您引入了今年兩位數低增長的目標。也許你能談談今年剩餘時間這種加速的驅動因素嗎？ Rob，你談到的更多是由 KYC 和合規驅動還是 ESG 和氣候或任何其他產品？如果您可以為我們量化，那就太好了。

Yes. Owen, good to hear from you. So we had very strong performance in MA really across the board. And maybe I would highlight just a few things, and this hopefully will give you a sense for the momentum that we have in the business.

是的。歐文，很高興收到你的來信。因此，我們在 MA 中的表現非常出色。也許我會強調一些事情，希望這能讓您了解我們在業務中的發展勢頭。

But the growth in Decision Solutions, there, we had 20% organic constant dollar recurring revenue growth. So that's -- when you think about organic recurring revenue growth, ex the impact of FX. And we're just seeing very strong demand for KYC and compliance solutions ongoing. And there, if you think about what's happening with our customers, there's an intense demand right now for tools that help with not only sanctions compliance but just better understanding the risk of who you're connecting to, who you're doing business with, so customers, of course, but also thinking about supply chain.

但是決策解決方案的增長，在那裡，我們有 20% 的有機固定美元經常性收入增長。這就是 - 當您考慮有機經常性收入增長時，排除外彙的影響。我們剛剛看到對 KYC 和合規解決方案的需求非常強勁。而且，如果您考慮一下我們的客戶正在發生的事情，那麼現在對工具的需求很大，這些工具不僅可以幫助遵守制裁，還可以更好地了解您與誰聯繫，與誰做生意的風險，所以客戶當然也要考慮供應鏈。

And so we're really leaning into that. You heard that the usage stats are up significantly. That's a very good kind of leading indicator, Owen, of when you see heavy usage, you can expect that you're deepening the value -- your customers are realizing the value proposition of your solutions that ultimately can lead into supporting pricing. It can support cross-sell and upsell at customers.

所以我們真的很傾向於這個。您聽說使用統計數據顯著上升。這是一個非常好的領先指標，歐文，當你看到大量使用時，你可以期望你正在加深價值——你的客戶正在意識到你的解決方案的價值主張，最終可以導致支持定價。它可以支持客戶的交叉銷售和追加銷售。

Our sales activity is picking up. We had a neat program where we were doing actually screening our customers' portfolios for them so that they can get a sense of what they might be missing in their own screening processes. So -- and on top of that, we made several investments last year. As you know, we made several acquisitions. But also, we've been investing heavily in internal product development. And so with the PassFort workflow platform that we acquired, we've now been really working on integrating our content sets into that, working on rolling out some new products where our customers continue to need help in terms of efficiency and effectiveness and not only around KYC but also around suppliers.

我們的銷售活動正在回升。我們有一個簡潔的程序，我們正在為他們實際篩選客戶的投資組合，以便他們能夠了解他們在自己的篩選過程中可能缺少什麼。所以 - 最重要的是，我們去年進行了幾項投資。如您所知，我們進行了幾次收購。而且，我們一直在大力投資內部產品開發。因此，通過我們收購的 PassFort 工作流程平台，我們現在一直在努力將我們的內容集集成到其中，努力推出一些新產品，我們的客戶在效率和有效性方面繼續需要幫助，而不僅僅是圍繞KYC，但也圍繞供應商。

So I could probably go on across the portfolio, but it gives you a sense, Owen, of very good performance in the quarter but very good momentum as well.

所以我可能會繼續介紹投資組合，但歐文，它讓你感覺本季度表現非常好，但勢頭也非常好。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then go back to the buyback, $1.5 billion. You maintained that guidance. I know, Rob, you answered a question around M&A criteria, but the valuation of many assets has come down. So at this point, how do you think about the pace of share buyback versus M&A which can also drive long-term value of the company?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後回到回購，15億美元。你保持了那個指導。我知道，Rob，您回答了有關併購標準的問題，但許多資產的估值已經下降。那麼在這一點上，您如何看待股票回購與併購的步伐，這也可以推動公司的長期價值？

Owen, just one thing. I ran the M&A department for a bunch of years here, and you're right. The value of public assets has come down. But I will say that a lot of assets in our space, if you've got companies that don't have leverage capital structures, they're in no hurry to sell, right? So it doesn't always mean that it's a more conducive M&A market when you see kind of a downturn in public market valuations.

歐文，只有一件事。我在這裡經營併購部門多年，你是對的。公共資產的價值已經下降。但我會說，我們這個領域的很多資產，如果你有沒有槓桿資本結構的公司，他們不急於出售，對吧？因此，當您看到公開市場估值出現下滑時，這並不總是意味著它是一個更有利於併購的市場。

And Owen, we do remain focused as a management team on prudent capital planning and allocation, and we spoke about this several times. So just to reinforce, we do try to identify opportunities for organic and inorganic investments in the high-growth markets first. And then to the extent there are additional investment dollars, we will seek to return that capital to our stockholders through share repurchases and dividends.

而歐文，作為一個管理團隊，我們確實仍然專注於審慎的資本規劃和分配，我們多次談到這一點。因此，為了加強，我們確實首先嘗試在高增長市場尋找有機和無機投資的機會。然後，如果有額外的投資資金，我們將尋求通過股票回購和股息將這些資本返還給我們的股東。

And our M&A framework, as Rob mentioned earlier, is really structured in a manner, such that we pursue the right investments to enhance the services we deliver to our customers and return capital to our stockholders. And then our approach incorporates business and strategic plan development, among other factors, such as market attractiveness, which you mentioned, as well as a competitive review. And that only enables us or allows us to pursue new deals where there's a clear set of transaction core elements among, first, supporting and advancing our global integrated risk assessment strategy; second, reinforcement sort of the development of our standards-based business; and then third is sort of leveraging our brand distribution and analytical capabilities to create more as a whole rather than distinct and separate elements.

正如 Rob 之前提到的，我們的併購框架的結構確實如此，這樣我們就可以進行正確的投資，以增強我們為客戶提供的服務並將資本返還給我們的股東。然後我們的方法結合了業務和戰略計劃的製定，以及其他因素，例如您提到的市場吸引力，以及競爭性審查。這只會使我們或允許我們尋求新的交易，其中有一套明確的交易核心要素，首先是支持和推進我們的全球綜合風險評估戰略；二是加強標準化業務發展。然後第三個是利用我們的品牌分佈和分析能力來創造更多的整體而不是獨特和獨立的元素。

Our next question comes from Simon Clinch of Atlantic Equities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Atlantic Equities 的 Simon Clinch。

I wanted to jump back just to the guide for issuance and for MIS revenue. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the levels of visibility you have in building your guidance for those 2 outlooks, and just give us a sense of how much is based on just looking historically and seeing how things have trended in the past to actually what you can actually see ahead of you.

我想回到發行指南和 MIS 收入指南。我只是想知道您是否可以談談您在為這兩種前景建立指導時的可見度水平，並讓我們了解有多少是基於僅查看歷史和了解事物在過去到實際上您可以實際看到的東西。

Simon, it's Rob. So maybe just to give you a sense of some of the data points and color that goes into how we thought about the outlook, maybe that will be helpful for you. And I could also maybe even touch on a little bit, just kind of current market conditions. Obviously, we don't have great visibility into the full year, but we do have some visibility into the current market.

西蒙，是羅伯。因此，也許只是為了讓您了解我們如何看待前景的一些數據點和顏色，也許這會對您有所幫助。而且我什至可以稍微談談當前的市場狀況。顯然，我們對全年的知名度不高，但我們對當前市場確實有一定的知名度。

But first of all, just from investment grade, obviously, we've got that down for the year. We've got it down 10% for the year versus down mid-20s for Q1. But there, we think we'll see some increased issuance to support opportunistic refi and M&A. So you had -- some of those issuers were just sitting on the sidelines.

但首先，從投資級別來看，很明顯，我們今年已經把它降下來了。今年我們將其降低了 10%，而第一季度則下降了 20 年代中期。但在那裡，我們認為我們會看到一些增加的發行以支持機會主義的 refi 和併購。所以你有 - 其中一些發行人只是袖手旁觀。

When you think about high-yield and leveraged loans, there, the decreases that we're seeing for the year are substantially greater. And even though we think there'll be a little bit of improvement through the balance of the year, the broader market conditions, including the equity market volatility, wider spreads, continued uncertainty around resolution of Russia and Ukraine, all that impacts the leveraged finance markets more than investment grade. When you see a lot of equity market volatility, that's typically very challenging for leveraged finance markets.

當您考慮高收益和槓桿貸款時，我們看到今年的降幅要大得多。儘管我們認為今年餘下時間會有所改善，但更廣泛的市場狀況，包括股市波動、價差擴大、俄羅斯和烏克蘭決議的持續不確定性，所有這些都會影響槓桿融資市場超過投資級別。當您看到大量股票市場波動時，這通常對槓桿金融市場非常具有挑戰性。

When we look at the kind of public and infrastructure area where we expect that to be down something like mid-single digits but year-to-go roughly flat, so some modest improvement baked in, there, again, I think kind of like what we expect with the investment-grade issuers, we expect that those infrastructure issuers are going to return from sitting on the sidelines in the first quarter. I think we will see lower supply from sovereigns who have done a lot of kind of prefunding over the last couple of years, combined with some rising funding costs.

當我們查看公共和基礎設施領域時，我們預計會下降大約個位數，但未來一年大致持平，因此出現了一些適度的改善，再次，我認為有點像我們預計投資級發行人，我們預計這些基礎設施發行人將從第一季度的觀望中回歸。我認為我們將看到主權國家在過去幾年中進行了大量預融資的供應減少，同時融資成本有所上升。

Let me just touch on structured for a second, too, because, there, we had a very strong first quarter, obviously. Our revenues were up 24% in structured finance, but you heard that we're actually looking for issuance to be down for the year. So what's going on there?

讓我再談一談結構化，因為很明顯，我們第一季度的表現非常強勁。我們的結構性融資收入增長了 24%，但您聽說我們實際上希望今年的發行量下降。那麼那裡發生了什麼？

Well, one, you had some spread widening in some of these asset classes and concerns about rate increases. So there, we do think we saw some pull forward of issuance that supported that really strong first quarter. But CMBS, very strong, and we expect that to continue for the year. But CLOs, you think about what's going on in CLOs, frequently tied to what's going on in the leveraged loan market. So with leveraged loans down meaningfully, there's less -- not only less leveraged loan creation for new CLO formation, but with spreads widening, that will put a little bit of damper on refinancing activity.

好吧，第一，您在其中一些資產類別中的價差有所擴大，並且對加息的擔憂。因此，我們確實認為我們看到了一些支持第一季度真正強勁的發行的推動。但是 CMBS 非常強勁，我們預計這一年將持續下去。但是 CLO，你想想 CLO 發生了什麼，通常與槓桿貸款市場發生的事情聯繫在一起。因此，隨著槓桿貸款顯著下降，不僅為新 CLO 的形成而創造的槓桿貸款減少，而且隨著利差擴大，這將對再融資活動產生一點抑制。

So that's generally how we're thinking about the outlook. And then in terms of just the best visibility we've got is just kind of what the current market looks like, and I would say that the markets are open for business. We would expect -- in investment grade, I would expect May to pick up off of April. April was a real mixed bag. There was more financial issuance than there was corporate. We had some blackouts, and some of the corporates continued to sit out the volatility. There's a lot of dry powder for M&A, but again, volatility will dictate how much of that comes to the market.

所以這通常是我們對前景的看法。然後就我們所獲得的最佳可見度而言，這就是當前市場的樣子，我想說市場對商業開放。我們預計 - 在投資級別，我預計 5 月份會從 4 月份開始回升。四月是一個真正的混合包。金融發行量多於公司發行量。我們有一些停電，一些公司繼續置身於波動之中。併購有很多乾粉，但同樣，波動性將決定其中有多少進入市場。

High yield is pretty sluggish. As I mentioned earlier, the European high-yield market has finally reopened after 11 weeks of no issuance, so we may see some M&A backlog there come to market. Leveraged loans are certainly stronger than high yield but off of a torrid pace. I've mentioned we've got a good FTM backlog, first-time mandate backlog. So hopefully, some of that will come to market.

高收益相當低迷。正如我之前提到的，歐洲高收益債券市場在 11 週沒有發行後終於重新開放，因此我們可能會看到那裡的一些併購積壓進入市場。槓桿貸款肯定比高收益要強，但速度不快。我已經提到我們有一個很好的 FTM 積壓，首次授權積壓。所以希望，其中一些將進入市場。

And the last thing I would say, Simon, is just looking at funds flows, we've seen 5 consecutive weeks of fund inflows in leveraged loans, while we've seen fund outflows for high yield almost through the balance of the year. So hopefully, that gives you a sense of the data points that we're looking at in kind of building to our forecast.

我要說的最後一件事，西蒙，只是關注資金流向，我們已經看到槓桿貸款連續 5 週資金流入，而我們幾乎在今年餘下時間都看到高收益資金流出。因此，希望這能讓您了解我們正在查看的數據點，以構建我們的預測。

That's really, really helpful, actually. And just -- and as a quick follow-up, I was wondering if you could just give us a sense as well, I mean, with all the impressive strong momentum you're getting in Moody's Analytics, how should we think about the economic sensitivity of those recurring revenues if we were to contemplate a recessionary scenario, for example? Is this revenue stream actually going to be much more resilient than people think? Or what are the sensitivities you can see there?

這真的，真的很有幫助，實際上。只是——作為一個快速的跟進，我想知道你是否也能給我們一個感覺，我的意思是，隨著穆迪分析的所有令人印象深刻的強勁勢頭，我們應該如何看待經濟例如，如果我們考慮衰退情景，這些經常性收入的敏感性？這種收入流真的會比人們想像的更有彈性嗎？或者你可以在那裡看到什麼敏感度？

Yes. Simon, it's interesting. If you look all the way back to the global financial crisis, MA's revenues proved to be pretty durable and resilient, and I think that would be the case here if we have an economic downturn. When we talk about this stuff about in times of uncertainty when customers need us most, that really is -- that's true. You see that with MA. You're not going to see banks turning off their KYC vendors in running risk of regulatory noncompliance because they're trying to cut costs.

是的。西蒙，這很有趣。如果你一直回顧全球金融危機，MA 的收入被證明是相當持久和有彈性的，我認為如果我們經濟不景氣，情況就會如此。當我們在客戶最需要我們的不確定時期談論這些東西時，那真的是——那是真的。你在 MA 身上看到了這一點。你不會看到銀行因為試圖削減成本而關閉他們的 KYC 供應商，因為他們面臨監管不合規的風險。

So I don't want to be glib about it, but I would just say that the fundamental value proposition will remain intact during times of stress and uncertainty. I do believe that will be true.

所以我不想對它油嘴滑舌，但我只想說，在壓力和不確定時期，基本價值主張將保持不變。我相信這將是真的。

Our next question comes from Shlomo Rosenbaum with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Shlomo Rosenbaum。

Factors that you have going into the guidance, particularly with the U.S. GDP of 3.5% to 4.5%. And what are you seeing that as you put that out there as part of the assumption when we had negative 1.4% for the first quarter? So what do you -- what are the kind of the puts and takes around that? And then afterwards, I have one follow-up.

您進入指南的因素，特別是美國 GDP 為 3.5% 至 4.5% 的情況。當我們第一季度為負 1.4% 時，當您將其作為假設的一部分提出時，您看到了什麼？那麼你怎麼辦？然後，我有一個後續行動。

Shlomo, it's Rob. So the first quarter GDP print was a quarter-over-quarter trend, so that was growth relative to the first -- to the fourth quarter of 2021. And obviously, in the fourth quarter of 2021, you had very strong GDP growth. It was almost 7%. And so I think we had expected some pullback in the first quarter, which happened.

什洛莫，是羅布。所以第一季度的 GDP 是一個季度環比的趨勢，所以這是相對於第一季度的增長——到 2021 年第四季度。顯然，在 2021 年第四季度，GDP 增長非常強勁。幾乎是7%。所以我認為我們預計第一季度會出現一些回調，這確實發生了。

If you look at it on a year-over-year basis for the quarter, you actually had positive GDP growth, I think in the kind of the 3.5 percentage range, which is kind of still within the range that we're looking at for the balance of the year.

如果你看這個季度的同比數據，你實際上有正的 GDP 增長，我認為在 3.5% 的範圍內，這仍然在我們正在尋找的範圍內當年的餘額。

There were some technical factors to that. But in general, I would say that the key variable for us in terms of GDP growth is thinking about the geopolitical dynamics, policy response to it, and there's still a lot of uncertainty around it. But in general, we think our forecasts are in line with a number of other prognosticators.

這有一些技術因素。但總的來說，我想說的是，就 GDP 增長而言，我們的關鍵變量是考慮地緣政治動態、政策應對措施，圍繞它仍然存在很多不確定性。但總的來說，我們認為我們的預測與許多其他預測指標一致。

Okay. Great. And then in terms of what we're seeing in the rate environment, it seems that there's likely to be less of what we've seen a lot in the last few years of pull forwards in terms of opportunistic refi. Can you talk a little bit about how that assumption has changed in the last quarter? In other words, we typically have seen, as rates gone down, some more kind of opportunistic refi. And can you maybe give a little bit more color about how that impacted the level of MIS kind of takedown that you assume now for this year?

好的。偉大的。然後就我們在利率環境中看到的情況而言，似乎在過去幾年中我們在機會主義 refi 方面看到的很多情況可能會更少。你能談談這個假設在上個季度發生了怎樣的變化嗎？換句話說，隨著利率的下降，我們通常會看到一些更多的機會主義 refi。你能否就這如何影響你現在假設今年的 MIS 類型的刪除水平提供更多的顏色？

Yes. So in a rising rate environment, like we've got here, we would expect to see CFOs and treasurers start to look at pulling forward issuance to get ahead of those rate increases. I mentioned earlier that we really didn't see much of that in the first quarter, and that's because I think the market volatility kind of overwhelmed the desire to kind of pull forward and be opportunistic in the market. It was just a very difficult market to access if you didn't need to.

是的。因此，在利率上升的環境中，就像我們現在所做的那樣，我們預計首席財務官和財務主管會開始考慮提前發行債券，以趕在這些利率上升之前。我之前提到過，我們在第一季度確實沒有看到太多這樣的情況，那是因為我認為市場波動有點壓倒了向前推進和在市場上投機取巧的願望。如果您不需要，這只是一個非常難以進入的市場。

So we have not built in substantial pull forward into our forecast, which is why I mentioned it earlier as a possible upside. You could imagine if the market volatility comes down a bit, we could see some of this pull-forward activity.

所以我們沒有在我們的預測中建立實質性的拉動，這就是為什麼我之前提到它是一個可能的上行空間。你可以想像，如果市場波動性下降一點，我們可以看到一些這種拉動活動。

And so part of the drivers there could really be the elevated cash balances that would temporarily constrain issuance. In the first quarter, just to put a couple of numbers around that, in terms of investment grade, we saw globally around 11% of eligible investment-grade issuers actually come to the market in the first quarter. And that's meaningfully below what we've seen over the last 2 years. But interestingly enough, of that 11% that came to the market, 2/3 of those had issued last year. So not so much opportunistic issuance but more for regular ongoing financing.

因此，部分驅動因素確實可能是現金餘額升高，這會暫時限制發行。在第一季度，僅舉幾個數字，就投資級別而言，我們看到全球約有 11% 的合格投資級別發行人實際上在第一季度進入市場。這明顯低於我們在過去兩年中看到的情況。但有趣的是，在上市的 11% 中，有 2/3 是去年發行的。因此，與其說是機會性發行，不如說是定期持續融資。

Conversely, on the high-yield fund, just 2% of eligible issuers issued in the first quarter, and that's meaningfully probably 2 or 3 standard deviations below what we've seen in other first quarters. But 1/3 of those were repeat issuers from 2021, sort of emphasizing that point around opportunistic issuance that Rob was making.

相反，在高收益基金中，只有 2% 的合格發行人在第一季度發行，這可能比我們在其他第一季度看到的低 2 或 3 個標準差。但其中 1/3 是 2021 年以來的重複發行人，這在某種程度上強調了 Rob 正在進行的機會主義發行的這一點。

Our next question comes from Kevin McVeigh of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的凱文麥克維。

Great. It seems like the margins are behaving a lot better, particularly given the meaningful downward revisions. And a little bit of that is the mix of MA versus MIS. So maybe talk to that a little bit. And if you can give us a sense of where the margins sit within MA more specifically, if there's a range to think about marker. I wanted to kind of start there, if we could.

偉大的。似乎利潤率表現要好得多，特別是考慮到有意義的向下修正。其中一點是 MA 與 MIS 的混合。所以也許可以談談。如果您可以更具體地讓我們了解利潤率在 MA 內的位置，是否有一個範圍可以考慮標記。如果可以的話，我想從那裡開始。

Kevin, thanks for the question. So maybe if I just spend a minute on some of the financial characteristics of some of the new MA LOBs first, and then I'll get on to that specific question sort of about margin by LOB. Data and information revenue for the first quarter was 100% reoccurring, and that was up from approximately 99% recurring as of the year-end 2021. And that's with a customer retention rate of 95%.

凱文，謝謝你的問題。因此，如果我先花一分鐘時間了解一些新 MA LOB 的一些財務特徵，然後我將繼續討論有關 LOB 保證金的特定問題。第一季度的數據和信息收入為 100% 重複性收入，高於截至 2021 年底的約 99% 重複性收入。客戶保留率為 95%。

Research and insights in the first quarter, which is 100% organic, had revenue that was up 7% and a recurring revenue rate of 99%. And that was consistent with 2021 and had increased customer retention rate of 97%, which is up 1% from the year before.

第一季度的研究和見解是 100% 有機的，收入增長了 7%，經常性收入率為 99%。這與 2021 年一致，客戶保留率提高了 97%，比前一年提高了 1%。

Decision Solutions recurring revenue was 87% of the total with a 96% customer retention rate. And both recurring revenue and retention rates were up from 84% and 93%, respectively, compared to 2021. So a very strong sample set.

決策解決方案經常性收入佔總收入的 87%，客戶保留率為 96%。與 2021 年相比，經常性收入和保留率分別從 84% 和 93% 上升。因此，這是一個非常強大的樣本集。

If you look at the MA LOBs now from an operating leverage perspective, given that both data and information and research and insights are businesses with very high recurring revenue, you could naturally expect those 2 LOBs to have a stronger margin profile than MA overall.

如果您現在從運營槓桿的角度來看 MA LOB，鑑於數據和信息以及研究和洞察都是經常性收入非常高的業務，您自然可以預期這 2 個 LOB 的利潤率狀況要高於 MA 整體。

Decision Solutions, which includes RMS, intuitively must then have a lower margin profile, and that really results from the higher proportion of existing on-prem solutions and transaction-based services as well as the relatively outsized incurrence of investment dollars in that LOB as we develop software and workflow tools to meet robust customer demand. And then over time, as we execute on our plans to achieve MA's medium-term adjusted operating margin target of mid-30s, you could expect the majority of that margin expansion to really result from improving operating leverage in Decision Solutions, while the margin profiles of data and information and research and insights should be relatively stable.

包括 RMS 在內的決策解決方案直觀地必須具有較低的利潤率，這實際上是由於現有本地解決方案和基於交易的服務的比例較高，以及在該 LOB 中的投資金額相對較大，因為我們開發軟件和工作流工具以滿足強大的客戶需求。然後隨著時間的推移，當我們執行實現 MA 30 年代中期調整後的中期營業利潤率目標的計劃時，您可以預期大部分利潤率擴張實際上是由於決策解決方案中運營槓桿的提高，而利潤率概況數據和信息以及研究和見解應該是相對穩定的。

Very helpful. And then, I guess, either Mark or Rob, I know you tweaked the GDP, but it's still pretty strong GDP relative to other cycles. So as you think about the issuance, is it more the macro uncertainty in terms of where we are as opposed to the base GDP, and that kind of factors into some of the recovery in the back half of the year? Because it seems like you're coming up against tougher comps, and you're still seeing some inflection. So is there just any more puts and takes? I know folks have spent a lot of time on that. But is that a fair way to think about it?

很有幫助。然後，我猜，馬克或羅布，我知道你調整了 GDP，但相對於其他週期，它仍然是相當強勁的 GDP。因此，當您考慮發行時，是否更多的是宏觀不確定性，相對於基本 GDP 而言，我們所處的位置，以及下半年某些復甦的因素？因為看起來你要面對更強硬的比賽，而且你仍然看到一些變化。那麼是否還有更多的投入和投入？我知道人們已經為此花費了很多時間。但這是一種公平的思考方式嗎？

Maybe the way I'll approach this, Kevin, is we alluded to this a little bit during Investor Day. But given the uncertainty around the duration and the severity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as what we know to be ongoing central bank actions to address inflationary concerns, our central case assumption is really that the shortfall in first quarter revenue, which has resulted from the lower-than-expected issuance which we've discussed, is unlikely to be recovered as the year progresses.

凱文，也許我會處理這個問題的方式是我們在投資者日期間提到了一點。但鑑於俄烏衝突持續時間和嚴重程度的不確定性，以及我們所知道的中央銀行為解決通脹擔憂而採取的持續行動，我們的中心假設確實是第一季度收入的短缺，這導致從我們討論過的低於預期的發行中，隨著時間的推移不太可能恢復。

And yes, we think this is a short-term cyclical headwind. And as we translate that then to MIS transaction revenue, we expect that to be balanced really between the first half and the second half of 2022 when historically, and I think this is the point that you're getting at, on average, the second half has only contributed, let's call it, 46-ish percent of the year's aggregate revenues.

是的，我們認為這是一個短期的周期性逆風。當我們將其轉化為 MIS 交易收入時，我們預計從歷史上看，這將在 2022 年上半年和下半年之間真正達到平衡，我認為這就是你平均而言第二個的點一半只貢獻了，我們稱之為，今年總收入的 46%。

That's sort of the big driver of the differential, and that's driven by several assumptions, some of which we've spoken about in the call, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, where we think energy prices are going up. We've got to really make sure that we are observing sort of oil prices where they may stabilize and the implications there for any recessionary conditions in the second half of the year.

這是差異的主要驅動因素，這是由幾個假設驅動的，我們在電話會議中談到了其中一些假設，包括貨幣政策、財政政策，我們認為能源價格正在上漲。我們必須真正確保我們正在觀察可能穩定的油價以及對下半年任何衰退情況的影響。

Our next question comes from Faiza Alwy of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

Yes. We've covered a lot of topics. I just wanted to ask a quick clarification question around margins on the analytics business. We did see a pretty significant sequential acceleration, and your guide assume some deceleration. I believe it might be all investments, Mark, that you talked about earlier on the call. But if you could give us any more color around dynamics, around investments, inflation pricing, maybe any mix as it relates to the new LOBs that you've talked about, that would be really helpful.

是的。我們已經討論了很多主題。我只是想問一個關於分析業務利潤率的快速澄清問題。我們確實看到了相當顯著的連續加速，而您的指南假設有一些減速。馬克，我相信你之前在電話會議上談到的可能都是投資。但是，如果您可以為我們提供更多關於動態、投資、通脹定價的信息，或者與您談到的新 LOB 相關的任何組合，那將非常有幫助。

Thanks, Faiza. It's Rob. Welcome to the call. It's great to have you on, but I'm going to let Mark take this one.

謝謝，法扎。是羅布。歡迎來電。很高興有你參加，但我會讓馬克拿下這個。

For the full year 2022, we are reaffirming our MA adjusted operating margin guidance of approximately 29%, and that includes around 150 to 200 basis points of margin compression from recent acquisitions, primarily RMS, as well as foreign exchange translation. Our guidance implies that the margin, on average, for the remainder of the year will be 28%, and that reflects the impact of our annual promotion and merit increase cycle, which commenced in April, as well as continued targeted organic investments to expand our best-in-class sales force and to focus on cross-selling opportunities across multiple product lines.

對於 2022 年全年，我們重申我們的 MA 調整後的營業利潤率指導約為 29%，其中包括最近收購（主要是 RMS）以及外匯換算帶來的約 150 至 200 個基點的利潤率壓縮。我們的指導意味著今年剩餘時間的平均利潤率為 28%，這反映了我們從 4 月開始的年度晉升和績效提升週期的影響，以及持續的有針對性的有機投資以擴大我們的一流的銷售隊伍，並專注於跨多個產品線的交叉銷售機會。

Similar to 2021 seasonality, we'd expect MA's organic investments to steadily increase throughout the year. And that's going to be commensurate with our ongoing revenue growth and those investments to be primarily weighted towards the second half of the year.

與 2021 年的季節性相似，我們預計 MA 的有機投資將在全年穩步增長。這將與我們持續的收入增長以及這些投資主要集中在下半年相稱。

We have demonstrated, I think, our ability to grow MA's organic constant currency recurring revenue over the past year from 9% to 10%, and we're still projecting sort of that low double-digit growth in 2022 and these ongoing multiyear investments that we're making that will support the achievement of our targets.

我認為，我們已經證明了我們在過去一年中將 MA 的有機固定貨幣經常性收入從 9% 增長到 10% 的能力，我們仍然預計 2022 年會出現這種低兩位數的增長以及這些持續的多年投資我們正在做這將支持我們的目標的實現。

And finally, just to sort of close out this one, our path to our medium-term MA margin target of mid-30s, it's not expected to be linear, especially as we continue to make opportunistic investments as time goes on.

最後，只是為了結束這一點，即我們通向 30 年代中期的中期 MA 保證金目標的道路，預計它不會是線性的，尤其是隨著時間的推移我們繼續進行機會性投資。

And our next question comes from Patrick O'Shaughnessy of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Patrick O'Shaughnessy。

Just one question from me. So you guys lowered your operating cash flow projection. You left your share repurchase guidance unchanged, and you boosted your CapEx outlook. Does that imply incremental debt issuance relative to your prior forecast?

我只有一個問題。所以你們降低了經營現金流量預測。您保持股票回購指導不變，並提高了資本支出前景。這是否意味著相對於您之前的預測增加債務發行？

It does not. If I think about sort of debt outstanding, you've got cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on the balance sheet as of the end of March of approximately $1.9 billion. The carrying value of debt as of the same date is around $7.8 billion. And if you take the net debt, which is 5.9, divided by sort of the trailing 12-month adjusted operating income of about $2.9 billion, we get a net debt to adjusted operating income ratio of about 2.0.

它不是。如果我考慮某種未償債務，截至 3 月底，您的資產負債表上有大約 19 億美元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資。截至同一日期，債務的賬面價值約為 78 億美元。如果您將淨債務（即 5.9）除以過去 12 個月的調整後營業收入約 29 億美元，我們得到的淨債務與調整後營業收入的比率約為 2.0。

We feel very comfortable with that ratio. It's not any near sort of that BBB+ threshold that Fitch or S&P uses to evaluate Moody's Corporation. So hopefully, that sort of helps address your question.

我們對這個比例感到很舒服。這與惠譽或標準普爾用來評估穆迪公司的 BBB+ 門檻相差無幾。因此，希望這有助於解決您的問題。

That does conclude the question-and-answer session for today. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to our presenters for any additional or closing comments.

今天的問答環節到此結束。目前，我想將電話轉回給我們的演示者，以獲取任何其他或結束的評論。

Well, I just want to thank everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Thank you very much.

好吧，我只想感謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。非常感謝你。

This concludes Moody's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR home page. Additionally, a replay of this call will be available after 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Moody's IR website. Thank you.

穆迪 2022 年第一季度財報電話會議到此結束。提醒一下，在本次電話會議之後，該公司將在穆迪投資者關係主頁的“投資者資源”部分下發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，將在下午 3:30 之後重播本次通話。穆迪投資者關係網站上的東部時間。謝謝你。