穆迪 (MCO) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Moody's Corporation Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, I'd like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加穆迪公司 2021 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。此時，我想通知您，本次會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Moody's fourth quarter 2021 results and our guidance. I'm Shivani Kak, Head of Investor Relations.

早上好，感謝您加入我們討論穆迪 2021 年第四季度業績和我們的指導。我是投資者關係主管 Shivani Kak。

This morning, Moody's released its results for the fourth quarter of 2021 and our outlook for full year 2022 and the medium term. The earnings press release and the presentation to accompany this teleconference are both available on our website at ir.moodys.com. Rob Fauber, Moody's President and Chief Executive Officer, will lead this morning's conference call. Also making prepared remarks on the call this morning is Mark Kaye, Moody's Chief Financial Officer.

今天上午，穆迪發布了 2021 年第四季度的業績以及我們對 2022 年全年和中期的展望。本次電話會議的收益新聞稿和演示文稿均可在我們的網站 ir.moodys.com 上查閱。穆迪總裁兼首席執行官 Rob Fauber 將主持今天上午的電話會議。穆迪首席財務官馬克·凱伊也在今天上午的電話會議上發表了事先準備好的講話。

During this call, we will be presenting non-GAAP or adjusted figures. Please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings press release filed this morning for a reconciliation between all adjusted measures referenced during this call and U.S. GAAP.

在這次電話會議中，我們將展示非公認會計原則或調整後的數據。請參閱我們今天上午提交的收益新聞稿末尾的表格，以了解本次電話會議期間引用的所有調整後措施與美國公認會計原則之間的對賬。

I call your attention to the safe harbor language, which can be found towards the end of our earnings release. Today's remarks may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In accordance with the Act, I also direct your attention to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section and the risk factors discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2020, and in other SEC filings made by the company, which are available on our website and on the SEC's website. These, together with the safe harbor statement, set forth important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any such forward-looking statements.

我提請您注意安全港語言，該語言可以在我們的收益發布結束時找到。今天的評論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。根據該法案，我還請您注意管理層的討論和分析部分以及我們在 Form 的年度報告中討論的風險因素截至 2020 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K，以及該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，這些文件可在我們的網站和美國證券交易委員會的網站上查閱。這些與安全港聲明一起列出了可能導致實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中包含的結果大不相同的重要因素。

I would also like to point out that members of the media may be on the call this morning in a listen-only mode. I will now turn the call over to Rob Fauber.

我還想指出，媒體成員今天早上可能會以只聽模式接聽電話。我現在將把電話轉給 Rob Fauber。

Thanks, Shivani, and good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining today's call. I'm going to begin by summarizing Moody's full year 2021 financial results, and then I'll provide an overview of our business and strategic direction. And following my commentary, Mark Kaye will provide some further details on our fourth quarter 2021 results and share our outlook for 2022 and also our new medium-term financial targets. And after our prepared remarks, as always, we'll be happy to take your questions.

謝謝 Shivani，大家早上好，感謝您加入今天的電話會議。我將首先總結穆迪 2021 年全年的財務業績，然後概述我們的業務和戰略方向。在我發表評論之後，馬克·凱伊將提供有關我們 2021 年第四季度業績的更多細節，並分享我們對 2022 年的展望以及我們新的中期財務目標。在我們準備好的發言之後，一如既往，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Our employees' resilience and commitment and hard work produced some exceptional results in 2021. And I am proud to share that for the first time, we surpassed $6 billion in revenue with record revenues from both MIS and MA. And adjusted diluted EPS grew at 21% in 2021.

我們員工的韌性和承諾以及辛勤工作在 2021 年產生了一些非凡的成果。我很自豪地分享這一點，我們的收入首次超過 60 億美元，來自 MIS 和 MA 的收入均創歷史新高。 2021 年調整後的攤薄每股收益增長了 21%。

Over the past several years, we've invested to build our businesses serving high-growth risk assessment markets. And in 2021, in particular, to seize the really attractive growth opportunity in front of us, we made some substantial investments, particularly in the fourth quarter. Across the firm, we're introducing a range of new products and solutions to help customers identify, manage and measure risk and unlock opportunity, and the pace is accelerating. We're balancing these investments with capital returns and seek to return approximately $2 billion to our stockholders this year in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

在過去的幾年裡，我們投資建立了服務於高增長風險評估市場的業務。特別是在 2021 年，為了抓住擺在我們面前的真正有吸引力的增長機會，我們進行了一些重大投資，尤其是在第四季度。在整個公司，我們正在推出一系列新產品和解決方案，以幫助客戶識別、管理和衡量風險並釋放機會，而且步伐正在加快。我們正在平衡這些投資與資本回報，並尋求在今年以股息和股票回購的形式向我們的股東返還大約 20 億美元。

For 2022, we project Moody's revenue to increase in the high single-digit percent range. That's driven by continued strong growth from MA and robust global debt issuance levels for MIS. And I'm also pleased to announce that in response to investor feedback, we're introducing new medium-term guidance, including Moody's Corporation's revenue to grow by at least 10% on an average annualized basis and adjusted operating margin to be in the low 50s percent range. Recent acquisitions, combined with organic investments, put us in an excellent position to deliver on our integrated risk assessment strategy and achieve these targets.

對於 2022 年，我們預計穆迪的收入將在高個位數百分比範圍內增長。這是由 MA 的持續強勁增長和 MIS 強勁的全球債務發行水平推動的。我也很高興地宣布，為了回應投資者的反饋，我們將推出新的中期指引，包括穆迪公司的收入年均增長至少 10%，調整後的營業利潤率處於低位50% 的範圍。最近的收購，加上有機投資，使我們處於實施綜合風險評估戰略並實現這些目標的絕佳位置。

Finally, I want to remind you that Moody's will be hosting our next Investor Day on March 10 later this year in New York City. And during the event, we're going to be showcasing key aspects of our business, and I look forward to meeting many of you in person. It's been a while. And for those who are unable to attend, there'll also be a virtual option.

最後，我想提醒您，穆迪將於今年晚些時候於 3 月 10 日在紐約市舉辦我們的下一個投資者日。在活動期間，我們將展示我們業務的關鍵方面，我期待與你們中的許多人親自見面。有一陣子了。對於那些無法參加的人，還有一個虛擬選項。

Now turning to full year results. Both MIS and MA revenue grew by 16%. MIS rated over $6 trillion of issuance and generated over 1,100 new mandates, and that's equivalent to almost 5 new mandates every working day of the year. And this, combined with MA's 56th consecutive quarter of revenue growth, helped us achieve our second successive year of 20-plus percent adjusted EPS growth.

現在轉向全年業績。 MIS 和 MA 收入均增長 16%。 MIS 對超過 6 萬億美元的發行進行了評級，並產生了 1,100 多個新的授權，這相當於一年中每個工作日幾乎有 5 個新的授權。再加上 MA 連續第 56 個季度的收入增長，幫助我們實現了連續第二年 20% 以上的調整後每股收益增長。

2021 was really a year where we accelerated our strategy to be the world's leading integrated risk assessment business. That included investing for growth, purposeful innovation and delivering for our stakeholders. During the year, we made a series of acquisitions to enhance our capabilities and further build out our offerings. The largest of these acquisitions, RMS, gives us a world-class insurance data and analytics franchise as well as some sophisticated weather and disaster modeling capabilities. And this allows us to serve a wide spectrum of customers, helping them to better understand the physical risks posed by climate change. And that's an important part of our broader ESG offerings.

2021 年確實是我們加速戰略成為全球領先的綜合風險評估業務的一年。這包括投資於增長、有目的的創新和為我們的利益相關者提供服務。在這一年中，我們進行了一系列收購以增強我們的能力並進一步擴大我們的產品。這些收購中規模最大的 RMS 為我們提供了世界級的保險數據和分析專營權，以及一些複雜的天氣和災害建模能力。這使我們能夠為廣泛的客戶提供服務，幫助他們更好地了解氣候變化帶來的物理風險。這是我們更廣泛的 ESG 產品的重要組成部分。

We also made investments to build out our ratings presence in important international markets. And in 2021, we began offering local credit ratings in Brazil as part of the continued expansion of our Moody's Local business across Latin America. And just last week, we announced our intent to acquire a majority stake in GCR Ratings, the leading credit rating agency in Africa, giving us an unmatched presence across the continent and really positioning us for the future.

我們還進行了投資，以擴大我們在重要國際市場的評級影響力。 2021 年，我們開始在巴西提供當地信用評級，作為穆迪當地業務在拉丁美洲持續擴張的一部分。就在上週，我們宣布有意收購非洲領先的信用評級機構 GCR Ratings 的多數股權，讓我們在整個非洲大陸擁有無與倫比的影響力，並真正為我們的未來做好準備。

In 2021, we expanded our suite of award-winning offerings with more than 15 meaningful product launches. This includes PortfolioStudio, our new cloud-native software-as-a-service credit portfolio management tool, that provides a single and powerful view of risk. As part of our broader ecosystem of risk, finance and lending solutions, it enables our customers to identify and measure and manage portfolio risks and returns by combining best-in-class Moody's models, scenarios and other content with business applications for financial institutions.

2021 年，我們推出了超過 15 款有意義的產品，擴大了我們屢獲殊榮的產品組合。其中包括 PortfolioStudio，這是我們全新的雲原生軟件即服務信用投資組合管理工具，可提供單一且強大的風險視圖。作為我們更廣泛的風險、金融和貸款解決方案生態系統的一部分，它使我們的客戶能夠通過將一流的穆迪模型、場景和其他內容與金融機構的業務應用程序相結合，來識別、衡量和管理投資組合的風險和回報。

We also launched the next generation of Supply Chain Catalyst, providing our customers with an enterprise view of their critical supply relationships. Supply Chain Catalyst combines our Orbis database with customers' internal data to deliver an integrated view of risk across multiple tiers of their supply chain and taking into account factors like financial health and sustainability and reputational risk among others.

我們還推出了下一代供應鏈催化劑，為我們的客戶提供他們關鍵供應關係的企業視圖。 Supply Chain Catalyst 將我們的 Orbis 數據庫與客戶的內部數據相結合，以提供跨供應鏈多個層級的綜合風險視圖，並考慮財務健康和可持續性以及聲譽風險等因素。

And finally, we continue to focus on serving our people, our customers and our communities. Our DE&I initiatives have received some great external recognition, helping to distinguish Moody's as an employer of choice. And that has never been more important than right now. In addition to the accolades that you see on this slide, we were just notified of our inclusion in the Bloomberg Gender-Equality Index for the second year in a row. And for the 11th year running, we're very proud to have received a perfect score from the Corporate Equality Index. And on top of these awards, we've achieved recognition from customers for our products and services. And among many other awards, we were named Best Credit Rating Agency by Institutional Investor for the 10th straight year a,nd we're ranked #2 overall in the Chartis RiskTech100.

最後，我們將繼續專注於為我們的員工、客戶和社區服務。我們的 DE&I 計劃已獲得一些外部認可，有助於將穆迪區分為首選雇主。這從未像現在這樣重要。除了您在這張幻燈片上看到的讚譽之外，我們剛剛被告知我們連續第二年被納入彭博性別平等指數。連續第 11 年，我們非常自豪地從企業平等指數中獲得滿分。除了這些獎項之外，我們的產品和服務也獲得了客戶的認可。在許多其他獎項中，我們連續第 10 年被機構投資者評為最佳信用評級機構，我們在 Chartis RiskTech100 中總體排名第二。

Now switching to our segment results, beginning with MIS. Favorable market conditions contributed to our strongest year yet in terms of both revenue and rated issuance. And investment-grade supply moderated off what was really a record 2020, but volumes were still substantial. Meanwhile, the leveraged loan market rebounded sharply, and it was bolstered by low default rates and an uptick in private equity buyout activity as well as increased investor appetite for floating-rate debt amid higher inflation.

現在切換到我們的細分結果，從 MIS 開始。有利的市場條件促成了我們迄今為止在收入和評級發行方面表現最強勁的一年。投資級供應在 2020 年真正創紀錄的水平上有所放緩，但數量仍然很大。與此同時，槓桿貸款市場大幅反彈，這得益於低違約率和私募股權收購活動的增加，以及在通脹上升的情況下投資者對浮動利率債務的興趣增加。

Strong leveraged loan volumes also supported some very strong CLO growth. And more broadly, structured finance issuance rebounded. That was due to ongoing favorable market conditions, including tight spreads. And that drove both new CLO as well as refinancing activity and CMBS and RMBS issuance in particular.

強勁的槓桿貸款量也支持了一些非常強勁的 CLO 增長。更廣泛地說，結構性融資發行出現反彈。這是由於持續有利的市場條件，包括利差較小。這推動了新的 CLO 以及再融資活動，尤其是 CMBS 和 RMBS 的發行。

As we consider the issuance drivers and factors for the year ahead, broadly speaking, the economy has demonstrated resilience to the impact of Omicron. GDP is growing. Companies are performing well and job creation continues, all of which underpin business, investor and consumer confidence.

當我們考慮來年的發行驅動因素和因素時，從廣義上講，經濟已表現出對 Omicron 影響的彈性。國內生產總值正在增長。公司表現良好，繼續創造就業機會，所有這些都鞏固了企業、投資者和消費者的信心。

But there are headwinds. Inflation remains elevated amid supply chain constraints and tight labor markets, although we expect price pressures to abate over the course of the year. But still uncertainty around the future path of interest rates may invite some occasional bouts of market volatility. And we've certainly seen that in the start of the year.

但也有逆風。在供應鏈受限和勞動力市場吃緊的情況下，通貨膨脹率仍然居高不下，儘管我們預計價格壓力將在一年中減弱。但未來利率路徑的不確定性仍可能會引發一些偶爾的市場波動。我們肯定在今年年初就看到了這一點。

Historically, a rising interest rate environment, when associated with robust economic activity, has been a positive for MIS. And I think it's worth noting that even with the potential for interest rate increases this year, overall, financing rates will remain at very modest levels from a historical perspective. We forecast that tight spreads, M&A transactions, ongoing refinancing needs and disintermediation will support global debt activity above medium-term historical levels, but with issuance slightly moderating versus record levels in 2021. And Mark is going to provide some details on MIS 2022 issuance expectations later in the call.

從歷史上看，利率上升的環境與強勁的經濟活動相關聯，對 MIS 有利。而且我認為值得注意的是，即使今年有可能加息，總體而言，從歷史角度來看，融資利率仍將保持在非常溫和的水平。我們預測，緊利差、併購交易、持續的再融資需求和去中介化將支持全球債務活動高於中期歷史水平，但與 2021 年的創紀錄水平相比，發行量略有放緩。馬克將提供有關 MIS 2022 發行預期的一些細節稍後在通話中。

Now moving to Moody's Analytics. In 2021, MA's revenue grew by 16%. We also meaningfully increased the mix of recurring revenue, which now represents 93% of MA's total revenue. And underpinning this performance were 9% organic revenue growth supported by a 95% retention rate, over 2,000 new customer accounts added through a combination of global sales execution and acquisitions and targeted investments in high-priority markets. And this momentum gives us the confidence to capitalize on the strong demand and market opportunities across MA by continuing to invest both organically and inorganically.

現在轉到穆迪分析。 2021年，MA的收入增長了16%。我們還有意義地增加了經常性收入的組合，現在佔 MA 總收入的 93%。支撐這一業績的是 95% 的保留率支持 9% 的有機收入增長，通過全球銷售執行和收購以及對高優先級市場的針對性投資增加了 2,000 多個新客戶帳戶。這種勢頭使我們有信心通過繼續進行有機和無機投資來利用整個 MA 的強勁需求和市場機會。

And we're doing just that. In 2021, with a purposeful acceleration in the fourth quarter, we invested to enhance and fast track the launch of several product offerings. For instance, in the fourth quarter, we acquired PassFort and invested to accelerate our integration with the goal of significantly advancing the development of our customer screening and onboarding capabilities. By digitizing and automating the KYC and AML process for our customers, we're providing a streamlined workflow, along with data from our Orbis and GRID databases. And we're building an efficient and effective interconnected suite of tools that deliver a stronger value proposition for customers in what is still a relatively fragmented market.

我們正在這樣做。 2021 年，隨著第四季度的有目的的加速，我們進行了投資，以加強和快速跟踪多個產品的推出。例如，在第四季度，我們收購了 PassFort 並投資以加速我們的整合，目標是顯著推進客戶篩选和入職能力的發展。通過為我們的客戶實現 KYC 和 AML 流程的數字化和自動化，我們提供了一個簡化的工作流程，以及來自我們 Orbis 和 GRID 數據庫的數據。我們正在構建一個高效且有效的互連工具套件，在仍然相對分散的市場中為客戶提供更強大的價值主張。

We also continue to build product capabilities in commercial real estate. I've previously talked about a product launch in the third quarter, CreditLens for commercial real estate. And that's our SaaS workflow platform built on the latest cloud technology and tailored to the specific needs of commercial real estate lenders. In the fourth quarter, we accelerated the road map for enhancements to the platform, including the overall user experience. We also expedited the launch of our portfolio monitoring solution for commercial real estate investors, integrating and building on the acquisition of RealXData in September. And this solution, Commercial Real Estate Portfolio Manager, was recently made available to customers in North America.

我們還繼續在商業地產方面建立產品能力。我之前談到了第三季度的產品發布，即用於商業房地產的 CreditLens。這就是我們基於最新雲技術構建的 SaaS 工作流平台，專為滿足商業房地產貸方的特定需求而定制。在第四季度，我們加快了增強平台的路線圖，包括整體用戶體驗。我們還加快了針對商業房地產投資者的投資組合監控解決方案的推出，整合併在 9 月收購 RealXData 的基礎上進行。這個解決方案，商業房地產投資組合管理器，最近提供給北美的客戶。

And last, we invested in the ongoing SaaS conversion of our banking software products, which supports growth among our existing customers and will help deepen our penetration of the midsized financial institution sector. And we expect that this conversion will raise our recurring revenue growth rate to low double digits in 2022 and low teens in 2023.

最後，我們投資了銀行軟件產品的持續 SaaS 轉換，這支持了我們現有客戶的增長，並將有助於加深我們在中型金融機構領域的滲透。我們預計，這種轉換將把我們的經常性收入增長率提高到 2022 年的低兩位數和 2023 年的低青少年。

With 24% overall sales growth, including 20% increase in our organic recurring sales, we demonstrated significant traction with customers in these 3 segments. This strong sales growth, along with our financial capacity, gave us the confidence to invest opportunistically in the fourth quarter in these areas.

隨著 24% 的整體銷售增長，包括 20% 的有機經常性銷售增長，我們在這三個細分市場中展示了對客戶的巨大吸引力。這種強勁的銷售增長以及我們的財務能力使我們有信心在第四季度在這些領域進行機會性投資。

For the broader MA business, we're also making some foundational investments which will support both revenue growth and operating efficiency. In the fourth quarter, we made investments in integrating RMS, which we'll touch on shortly, as well as fine-tuning our sales capabilities to deepen customer penetration, expand cross-selling and refine our go-to-market approach.

對於更廣泛的 MA 業務，我們還進行了一些基礎投資，以支持收入增長和運營效率。在第四季度，我們對整合 RMS 進行了投資，我們稍後會談到這一點，並微調了我們的銷售能力，以加深客戶滲透、擴大交叉銷售並完善我們的上市方法。

Now as you can see on this slide, our organic recurring revenue growth rate has steadily improved. And we anticipate it's going to continue to do so and contribute towards our goal of achieving total revenue growth in the low to mid-teens percent range within 5 years. And this focus on organic recurring revenue expansion is at the core of our business strategy for MA.

現在，正如您在這張幻燈片上看到的那樣，我們的有機經常性收入增長率穩步提高。我們預計它將繼續這樣做，並為我們在 5 年內實現總收入增長在低至 10% 範圍內的目標做出貢獻。這種對有機經常性收入擴張的關注是我們 MA 業務戰略的核心。

There are also some other drivers that underpin this medium-term outlook. We're redoubling our focus on customer satisfaction to support our strong retention rates and help us support recurring revenue growth. Our product enhancements enable us to increase revenue per customer from cross-selling upgrades and pricing opportunities. The continued transition to SaaS in our enterprise risk solutions segment provides the opportunity for revenue uplift from existing customers as well as the opportunity to add new customers. And we're also prioritizing the development of products and solutions for existing and new customers to further tailor our solutions to their unique needs.

還有一些其他驅動因素支撐著這一中期前景。我們正在加倍關注客戶滿意度，以支持我們強大的保留率並幫助我們支持經常性收入增長。我們的產品增強功能使我們能夠通過交叉銷售升級和定價機會增加每位客戶的收入。我們的企業風險解決方案部門持續向 SaaS 過渡，為現有客戶增加收入以及增加新客戶提供了機會。我們還優先為現有和新客戶開發產品和解決方案，以進一步根據他們的獨特需求定制我們的解決方案。

Now last year on our fourth quarter earnings call, we talked about the use cases that we're serving across what was at the time a $35 billion addressable market opportunity. Now we've since expanded that to $40 billion by adding RMS. And given the demand to assess a wider range of risks, many of these markets are growing quickly, which, as you can see on the right, translated into 4 areas in MA where we generated over $100 million in organic recurring revenue with double-digit growth rates.

去年第四季度財報電話會議上，我們談到了我們服務的用例，這在當時是一個價值 350 億美元的可尋址市場機會。現在，我們通過添加 RMS 將其擴大到 400 億美元。鑑於評估更廣泛風險的需求，其中許多市場正在快速增長，正如您在右側看到的那樣，這轉化為 MA 的 4 個領域，我們創造了超過 1 億美元的兩位數有機經常性收入增長率。

And this leads me to our acquisition of RMS. And though it's early in the integration process, in meeting with a number of C-suite executives at insurance and reinsurance companies, I got to tell you, I'm excited about the opportunity to serve the insurance industry with a broader array of risk assessment offerings as well as leveraging RMS' world-class data and models and expertise to meet our customers' growing needs around disaster and climate risk.

這讓我想到了我們對 RMS 的收購。儘管在整合過程的早期階段，在與保險和再保險公司的一些高管會面時，我不得不告訴你，我很高興有機會為保險業提供更廣泛的風險評估服務RMS 的世界級數據和模型以及專業知識，以滿足客戶在災害和氣候風險方面不斷增長的需求。

We have aligned and cross-trained our sales teams, and the SaaS migration is ongoing at RMS. Most importantly, the feedback from RMS and Moody's insurance customers has been overwhelmingly positive. They're excited about us jointly providing more comprehensive offerings for both the asset and the liability side of the balance sheet. And we're identifying opportunities for new products that evaluate weather and climate risks to take to the broader Moody's customer base, particularly in commercial real estate, CMBS and banking.

我們已經對我們的銷售團隊進行了協調和交叉培訓，並且 RMS 正在進行 SaaS 遷移。最重要的是，來自 RMS 和穆迪保險客戶的反饋非常積極。他們對我們共同為資產負債表的資產和負債方面提供更全面的產品感到興奮。我們正在為評估天氣和氣候風險的新產品尋找機會，以提供給更廣泛的穆迪客戶群，特別是在商業房地產、CMBS 和銀行業。

To bring this to life, I want to highlight a recent example of a large P&C insurer, which has been a customer of both RMS and to a lesser extent, MA, for years. I met with them recently to talk about how we can be even more of a strategic partner for them. And we discussed how they wanted to integrate ESG considerations into a range of processes that included underwriting, investment, regulatory compliance, scenario analysis, portfolio management.

為了實現這一點，我想重點介紹一家大型 P&C 保險公司最近的一個例子，該公司多年來一直是 RMS 以及在較小程度上是 MA 的客戶。我最近與他們會面，討論我們如何才能成為他們的戰略合作夥伴。我們還討論了他們希望如何將 ESG 考慮因素整合到一系列流程中，包括承銷、投資、監管合規、情景分析、投資組合管理。

And ultimately, the breadth of our offerings and our ability to integrate them in ways that provide a more consistent view of ESG risk across the enterprise, and especially for climate change, really differentiated our offerings. And this cross-sell was enabled by the very deep RMS relationship and combined with the broader Moody's ESG capabilities. And I think it's a great example of the kinds of conversations that we're having with many RMS and Moody's insurance customers about how we can enable a consistent view of risk to support profitable growth, lower insured losses and reduced volatility.

最終，我們產品的廣度以及我們以能夠更一致地了解整個企業的 ESG 風險的方式整合它們的能力，尤其是在氣候變化方面，真正使我們的產品與眾不同。這種交叉銷售得益於非常深厚的 RMS 關係，並結合了更廣泛的穆迪 ESG 能力。我認為這是我們與許多 RMS 和穆迪保險客戶進行的對話的一個很好的例子，關於我們如何能夠實現一致的風險觀點以支持盈利增長、降低保險損失和降低波動性。

I'm now going to turn the call over to Mark to provide further details on Moody's fourth quarter results as well as our full year 2022 and medium-term outlook.

我現在將把電話轉給馬克，以提供有關穆迪第四季度業績以及我們 2022 年全年和中期展望的更多細節。

Thank you, Rob.

謝謝你，羅布。

In the fourth quarter, MIS revenue grew 19%, supported by a 28% increase in transaction revenue as rated issuance rose 23%. Corporate finance was the largest contributor to revenue, growing 20%, supported by a 21% increase in issuance. This is driven by demand for leveraged loans as issuers opportunistically refinance debt and funded M&A. Heightened investment-grade activity also contributed to growth, while high-yield bonds declined due to a pivot to floating-rate debt.

第四季度，MIS 收入增長 19%，其中交易收入增長 28%，評級發行增長 23%。在發行量增長 21% 的支持下，企業融資是收入的最大貢獻者，增長 20%。這是由對槓桿貸款的需求推動的，因為發行人機會主義地為債務再融資並為併購提供資金。投資級活動的增加也促進了增長，而高收益債券由於轉向浮動利率債務而下降。

Structured finance revenue registered its strongest quarter in a decade as revenue and issuance grew 66% and 148%, respectively. Investor search for yield and favorable market conditions, including historically tight spreads, drove activity across all major structured finance asset classes.

結構性融資收入錄得十年來最強勁的季度，收入和發行量分別增長 66% 和 148%。投資者尋求收益和有利的市場條件，包括歷史上的低息差，推動了所有主要結構性融資資產類別的活動。

Financial institutions revenue increased 6% as issuance grew 22%, while frequent U.S. and European bank issuers took advantage of the attractive rate and spread environment. Public, project and infrastructure finance revenue declined 2% despite a 24% decrease in issuance. Non-U.S. infrastructure finance activity was offset by lower U.S. public finance and EMEA sub-sovereign issuance as financing needs were largely addressed in prior quarters.

隨著發行量增長 22%，金融機構的收入增長了 6%，而頻繁的美國和歐洲銀行發行人利用了具有吸引力的利率和利差環境。儘管發行量下降了 24%，但公共、項目和基礎設施融資收入下降了 2%。非美國基礎設施融資活動被美國公共財政和歐洲、中東和非洲次主權發行的減少所抵消，因為融資需求在前幾個季度得到了基本解決。

The MIS adjusted operating margin expanded over 500 basis points to 53.6%. Robust business performance resulted in higher incentive compensation, which impacted the margin by approximately 200 basis points in the fourth quarter.

MIS 調整後的營業利潤率擴大了 500 多個基點，達到 53.6%。強勁的業務表現導致更高的激勵薪酬，這對第四季度的利潤率造成了約 200 個基點的影響。

Moving to MA. Fourth quarter revenue grew 20% or 7% on an organic constant currency basis. RD&A revenue increased 12% as we benefited from high demand for KYC and compliance solutions as well as credit research and data feeds. Revenue was further supported by record retention rates of 96%, level with the prior year period. ERS revenue was up 42%, fueled by the acquisition of RMS, with recurring revenue comprising 89% of total revenue, up from 81%. For full year 2021, ERS organic constant currency recurring revenue grew by 9% as we executed on our strategic shift away from onetime sales.

搬到馬。第四季度收入在有機不變貨幣基礎上增長了 20% 或 7%。 RD&A 收入增長了 12%，因為我們受益於對 KYC 和合規解決方案以及信用研究和數據饋送的高需求。創紀錄的 96% 的保留率進一步支持了收入，與去年同期持平。在收購 RMS 的推動下，ERS 收入增長了 42%，經常性收入佔總收入的 89%，高於 81%。 2021 年全年，隨著我們執行從一次性銷售的戰略轉變，ERS 有機固定貨幣經常性收入增長了 9%。

MA's adjusted operating margin of 14.9% reflected the impact of recent acquisitions, higher incentive compensation and the intentional pull forward and acceleration of select organic product investments into the fourth quarter. Excluding these 3 items, MA's adjusted operating margin expanded by over 100 basis points. The increased investment in high-growth markets and product development directly supports our expectation for organic recurring revenue growth in the low double-digit percent range in 2022.

MA 調整後的營業利潤率為 14.9%，反映了近期收購的影響、更高的激勵薪酬以及有意推進和加速選擇有機產品投資進入第四季度。除去這三個項目，MA 的調整後營業利潤率擴大了 100 多個基點。對高增長市場和產品開發的投資增加直接支持了我們對 2022 年低兩位數有機收入增長的預期。

This slide provides further insight into our operating expenses for both full year 2021 and our outlook for 2022 as we balance cost efficiencies with investments to accelerate future growth. For full year 2021, operating expenses rose 13%. Of this, 7 percentage points were attributable to operational and transaction-related costs associated with acquisitions during the year. Organic strategic investments related to product innovation and technology initiatives contributed another 5 percentage points.

這張幻燈片進一步深入了解了我們 2021 年全年的運營費用和我們對 2022 年的展望，因為我們在成本效率與投資之間取得了平衡，以加速未來的增長。 2021 年全年，營業費用增長 13%。其中，7 個百分點歸因於年內與收購相關的運營和交易相關成本。與產品創新和技術計劃相關的有機戰略投資又貢獻了 5 個百分點。

In addition, we invested in our employees. Operating growth, which is primarily comprised of hiring, annual wage increases and other retention-oriented spending, as well as higher incentive compensation accruals contributed to an aggregate 6 percentage point increase. This cost was directly offset through a combination of ongoing cost efficiency programs and lower severance and restructuring-related charges. For full year 2022, we forecast expenses to increase in the low double-digit percent range, mostly attributable to acquisitions completed within the last 12 months. We expect that incremental spending on organic strategic investments and operating growth, primarily related to merit and promotional increases as well as talent acquisition and retention, will be balanced through savings from lower incentive compensation accruals and ongoing expense discipline and efficiency initiatives.

此外，我們投資於我們的員工。主要由招聘、年度工資增長和其他以留任為導向的支出以及更高的激勵薪酬應計構成的經營增長貢獻了 6 個百分點的總增長。這一成本通過持續的成本效率計劃和較低的遣散費和重組相關費用直接抵消。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計費用將在兩位數的較低百分比範圍內增長，這主要歸因於過去 12 個月內完成的收購。我們預計有機戰略投資和運營增長的增量支出（主要與績效和晉升增長以及人才獲取和保留有關）將通過降低激勵薪酬應計和持續的費用紀律和效率舉措所節省的資金來平衡。

2021 provided a unique opportunity to accelerate our investments in high-growth markets, including KYC, CRE, banking, ESG, emerging markets as well as technology enablement. We ultimately invested approximately $150 million to enhance our capabilities and capture new opportunities for revenue expansion across the business. We expect to sustain this level of investment in 2022 as we execute on our long-term integrated risk assessment strategy.

2021 年提供了一個獨特的機會來加速我們對高增長市場的投資，包括 KYC、CRE、銀行、ESG、新興市場以及技術支持。我們最終投資了大約 1.5 億美元來增強我們的能力並抓住新的機會來擴大整個業務的收入。隨著我們執行長期綜合風險評估戰略，我們預計將在 2022 年維持這一水平的投資。

Finally, we also plan to invest over $50 million in 2022 on our most important asset, our people. Our employees connect deeply to our mission to provide trusted insights and standards that help decision-makers act with confidence. And we want to attract and retain the best talent in order to achieve our growth ambitions.

最後，我們還計劃在 2022 年為我們最重要的資產——我們的員工——投資超過 5000 萬美元。我們的員工與我們的使命密切相關，即提供可信賴的見解和標準，幫助決策者自信地行動。我們希望吸引和留住最優秀的人才，以實現我們的增長目標。

Turning now to our corporate guidance for 2022. Moody's outlook for the year is based on assumptions regarding many geopolitical conditions, macroeconomic and capital market factors. These include, but are not limited to, the effects of interest rates, inflation, foreign currency exchange rates, capital markets liquidity and activity in different sectors of the debt market as well as the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent responses by governments, regulators, businesses and individuals. The outlook also reflects assumptions regarding general economic conditions, the company's own operations and personnel as well as additional items detailed in the earnings release.

現在轉向我們對 2022 年的企業指引。穆迪對今年的展望是基於對許多地緣政治條件、宏觀經濟和資本市場因素的假設。這些包括但不限於利率、通貨膨脹、外匯匯率、資本市場流動性和債務市場不同部門活動的影響，以及 COVID-19 大流行的影響和政府隨後的反應，監管機構、企業和個人。展望還反映了對一般經濟狀況、公司自身運營和人員以及收益發布中詳述的其他項目的假設。

Our full year 2022 guidance incorporates the following specific macro assumptions. 2022 U.S. and Euro area GDP will each expand by approximately 3.5% to 4.5%, and global benchmark interest rates will gradually rise with the U.S. high-yield spreads moving slightly above the historical average of approximately 500 basis points. By year-end, the U.S. unemployment rate will decline to about 3.5% and the global high-yield default rate will gradually decrease before gradually rising to approximately 2.4%. Global inflation is projected to decline over the course of 2022, yet remain above central bank targets in several countries.

我們的 2022 年全年指導包含以下具體的宏觀假設。 2022年美國和歐元區GDP將分別增長約3.5%至4.5%，全球基準利率將逐步上升，美國高收益利差略高於歷史平均水平約500個基點。到年底，美國失業率將下降至 3.5% 左右，全球高收益債券違約率將逐漸下降，然後逐漸上升至 2.4% 左右。全球通脹預計將在 2022 年期間下降，但仍高於幾個國家的央行目標。

Our guidance also assumes foreign currency translation. Specifically, our forecast for 2022 reflects U.S. exchange rates for the British pound of $1.35 and $1.14 for the euro. These assumptions are subject to uncertainty and results for the year could differ materially from our current outlook.

我們的指導還假設外幣折算。具體而言，我們對 2022 年的預測反映了美元兌英鎊和 1.14 美元的美元匯率。這些假設存在不確定性，今年的結果可能與我們目前的展望大不相同。

In 2022, we expect Moody's revenue to increase in the high single-digit percent range. And operating expenses, including the full year impact of acquisitions, to grow in the low double-digit percent range. Moody's adjusted operating margin is forecast to be in the range of 49% to 50%. We estimate net interest expense to be between $200 million and $220 million and the full year 2022 effective tax rate to be between 20.5% and 22.5%. Diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS are projected to be in the range of $11.50 to $12 and $12.40 to $12.90, respectively.

2022 年，我們預計穆迪的收入將在高個位數百分比範圍內增長。運營費用（包括收購對全年的影響）將以兩位數的低百分比增長。穆迪調整後的營業利潤率預計在 49% 至 50% 之間。我們估計淨利息支出在 2 億美元到 2.2 億美元之間，2022 年全年有效稅率在 20.5% 到 22.5% 之間。稀釋後每股收益和調整後的稀釋後每股收益預計分別在 11.50 美元至 12 美元和 12.40 美元至 12.90 美元之間。

Free cash flow is forecast to be between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion, and we plan to return at least $1.5 billion to stockholders through share repurchases, subject to available cash, market conditions, M&A opportunities and other ongoing capital allocation decisions. Included within this outlook is our intention to execute a $500 million accelerated share repurchase program in the first half of the year. For a full list of our guidance, please refer to Table 12 of our earnings release.

自由現金流預計在 23 億美元至 25 億美元之間，我們計劃根據可用現金、市場條件、併購機會和其他正在進行的資本分配決策，通過股票回購向股東返還至少 15 億美元。這一展望中包括我們打算在今年上半年執行 5 億美元的加速股票回購計劃。有關我們指導的完整列表，請參閱我們的收益發布的表 12。

Turning now to our issuance outlook. We expect total MIS-rated issuance to decrease in the low single-digit percent range compared to record activity in the prior year. However, 2022 activity is anticipated to remain well above the prior 5-year historical average of $5.1 trillion, inclusive of record issuance in 2021. We project that investment-grade activity will increase by approximately 15% following the sharp contraction in 2021. While funding conditions for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds will remain supportive, we estimate that issuance will decline by approximately 10% and 15%, respectively. This is due to strong prior year comparables and an expected decrease in opportunistic activity, particularly in high yield as global benchmark rates rise. We forecast a 5% increase in public, project and infrastructure finance activity and that financial institution issuance will be approximately flat. After a year of robust structured finance activity, issuance is expected to decline by approximately 5%.

現在轉向我們的發行展望。我們預計，與去年創紀錄的活動相比，MIS 評級的總發行量將在較低的個位數百分比範圍內下降。然而，預計 2022 年的活動仍將遠高於前 5 年 5.1 萬億美元的歷史平均水平，其中包括 2021 年創紀錄的發行量。我們預計，在 2021 年急劇收縮之後，投資級活動將增加約 15%。雖然融資槓桿貸款和高收益債券的條件依然有利，我們預計發行量將分別下降約 10%和 15%。這是由於上一年的可比數據強勁，以及機會主義活動的預期減少，尤其是隨著全球基準利率上升而導致的高收益。我們預測公共、項目和基礎設施融資活動將增長 5%，而金融機構的發行量將大致持平。經過一年強勁的結構性融資活動，發行量預計將下降約 5%。

For 2022, we estimate 900 to 1,000 first-time mandates, which will contribute to both transaction revenue and future recurring revenue growth. We expect MIS' full year revenue to increase in the low single-digit percent range, reflecting both our strong new mandate estimate and recurring revenue base, which will offset a moderation in issuance. We forecast MIS' adjusted operating margin to be approximately 62%, in line with the prior full year result. This is an improvement of more than 400 basis points since 2020 due to operational efficiency and expense discipline.

對於 2022 年，我們估計有 900 到 1,000 個首次授權，這將有助於交易收入和未來的經常性收入增長。我們預計 MIS 的全年收入將在低個位數百分比範圍內增長，這反映了我們強勁的新任務估計和經常性收入基礎，這將抵消發行量的放緩。我們預測 MIS 調整後的營業利潤率約為 62%，與之前的全年業績一致。由於運營效率和費用紀律，自 2020 年以來，這已提高了 400 多個基點。

Turning to MA. We anticipate revenue will increase in the high teens percent range, building on strong 10% growth in organic constant currency recurring revenue in 2021. This reflects our ongoing focus on expanding our subscription-based products and is further supported by approximately 10 percentage points attributable to previously announced acquisitions. We forecast MA's adjusted operating margin to be approximately 29%, inclusive of 150 to 200 basis point headwind from recent acquisitions and foreign exchange movements.

轉向馬。在 2021 年有機固定貨幣經常性收入強勁增長 10% 的基礎上，我們預計收入將在 10% 以上範圍內增長。這反映了我們對擴展基於訂閱的產品的持續關注，並得到約 10 個百分點的進一步支持之前宣布的收購。我們預測 MA 的調整後營業利潤率約為 29%，其中包括近期收購和外匯變動帶來的 150 至 200 個基點的逆風。

As Rob mentioned earlier, in response to investor feedback, we are replacing our existing long-term targets with new medium-term guidance. This demonstrates our commitment to delivering multiyear value to our stakeholders as well as our confidence in capitalizing on the growth opportunities available to us while maintaining an attractive margin profile over the next 5 years.

正如 Rob 之前提到的，為了回應投資者的反饋，我們正在用新的中期指導取代現有的長期目標。這表明了我們致力於為利益相關者提供多年價值的承諾，以及我們對利用可用的增長機會同時在未來 5 年保持有吸引力的利潤率狀況的信心。

For MIS, we project revenue to increase in the low to mid-single-digit percent range, coupled with an adjusted operating margin in the low 60% range, as we continue to invest in meeting our customers' needs in emerging markets and evolving areas of risk, including ESG. For MA, we are targeting revenue in the low to mid-teens percent range and an adjusted operating margin in the mid-30% range within 5 years. We expect this increase to be driven by organic investments in our products, solutions and distribution capabilities as well as operating leverage from expanding recurring revenue.

對於 MIS，我們預計收入將在中低個位數百分比範圍內增長，加上調整後的營業利潤率在 60% 範圍內，因為我們將繼續投資以滿足新興市場和不斷發展的領域的客戶需求風險，包括 ESG。對於 MA，我們的目標是 5 年內收入在 10% 到 10% 左右，調整後的營業利潤率在 30% 左右。我們預計這一增長將受到對我們的產品、解決方案和分銷能力的有機投資以及不斷擴大的經常性收入的經營槓桿的推動。

As such, over the coming 5 years, we project Moody's revenue to grow by at least 10% on an average annualized basis and adjusted operating margin to stabilize in the low 50s percent range. We also anticipate that adjusted diluted EPS will increase in the low double-digit percent range.

因此，在未來 5 年，我們預計穆迪的收入年均增長至少 10%，調整後的營業利潤率將穩定在 50% 的低位區間。我們還預計，調整後的攤薄每股收益將在兩位數的低百分比範圍內增長。

Before turning the call back over to Rob, I would like to highlight a few key takeaways. First, in 2021, Moody's delivered over $6 billion in revenue and an adjusted diluted EPS growth rate above 20% as our customer-centric approach continue to address their evolving needs. Second, following a record year of issuance in 2021, we expect activity to remain robust this year. Third, MA's high recurring revenue growth and retention rates will continue to support strong financial results. Fourth, our strategic investments in high-growth markets will strengthen our financial performance in 2022. And finally, the introduction of medium-term targets reflects our conviction in the momentum of our business as well as our commitment to capitalize on multiple opportunities for growth.

在將電話轉回給 Rob 之前，我想強調一些關鍵要點。首先，隨著我們以客戶為中心的方法繼續滿足他們不斷變化的需求，穆迪在 2021 年實現了超過 60 億美元的收入和調整後的攤薄後每股收益增長率超過 20%。其次，繼 2021 年發行量創歷史新高之後，我們預計今年的活動將保持強勁。第三，MA 的高經常性收入增長和保留率將繼續支持強勁的財務業績。第四，我們在高增長市場的戰略投資將加強我們在 2022 年的財務業績。最後，中期目標的引入反映了我們對業務發展勢頭的信念以及我們對利用多種增長機會的承諾。

And with that, let me turn the call back over to Rob.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉回給 Rob。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝，馬克。

And before we take questions, I again just want to recognize the efforts of all of our people at Moody's. Our entire organization remains focused on putting our customers at the center of everything that we do. And in 2022 and beyond, we're going to continue to invest and to execute to provide our customers the solutions they want and need to manage a wider range of interconnected risk, and that will reinforce our medium-term growth opportunity.

在我們回答問題之前，我想再次感謝穆迪全體員工的努力。我們的整個組織仍然專注於將我們的客戶置於我們所做的一切的中心。在 2022 年及以後，我們將繼續投資和執行，為我們的客戶提供他們想要和需要的解決方案，以管理更廣泛的相互關聯的風險，這將加強我們的中期增長機會。

So thanks for listening to our prepared remarks. Before we go to Q&A, I've been asked to give a brief public service announcement about our Investor Day. We're going to be sharing some videos that spotlight various parts of Moody's leading up to the event. So stay tuned for that, and we look forward to seeing everybody on March 10. So that concludes our prepared remarks, and Mark and I would be happy to take your questions. Operator?

因此，感謝您收聽我們準備好的評論。在我們進行問答之前，我被要求就我們的投資者日做一個簡短的公共服務公告。我們將分享一些視頻，重點介紹穆迪在活動前的各個方面。敬請期待，我們期待在 3 月 10 日與大家見面。我們準備好的發言到此結束，馬克和我很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And we'll go ahead and take our first question from Kevin McVeigh with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們將繼續回答來自瑞士信貸的 Kevin McVeigh 的第一個問題。

A lot to unpack here, but I didn't want to let the kind of 1-year anniversary of your tenure go by without maybe giving us a little puts and takes over the last year because obviously you've really moved the organization forward in all different types of environments. So just love to get your recap on kind of first year in office, if you would.

這裡有很多東西要解開，但我不想讓你任職一周年的那種日子過去了所有不同類型的環境。所以，如果你願意的話，只是喜歡回顧一下你上任的第一年。

Yes, Kevin, thanks. That's a great way to actually, I think, kind of kickoff the call. And when I took over as CEO a little over a year ago, we had a business that was in great shape, and it was really poised for the next chapter of growth. And I was thinking back actually before I got on this call, I was thinking back to it a year ago. And I talked about 3 strategic priorities at the time that I thought would really help us reinforce and accelerate growth. And that's probably a word you're going to hear a lot on the call today. And we've really been active executing on that over the last kind of 12 to 14 months.

是的，凱文，謝謝。實際上，我認為這是啟動電話會議的好方法。一年多前，當我接任 CEO 時，我們的業務狀況良好，它真的為下一個增長篇章做好了準備。實際上，在我接到這個電話之前，我正在回想起來，我在一年前回想起來。我當時談到了 3 個戰略重點，我認為這將真正幫助我們加強和加速增長。這可能是您今天在電話會議上經常聽到的一個詞。在過去的 12 到 14 個月裡，我們真的一直在積極執行。

And the first of those is deepening our understanding of our customers. And the reason that's so important is that our customers' needs around risk are evolving very rapidly. I mean, the pandemic accelerated that. So risks are more complex. They're more interrelated. There's a wider range of risks that organizations are grappling with. We've talked about that. But better understanding these needs allows us to produce new offerings that our customers value and that then translates into more revenue per customer and adding new customers in new market segments.

首先是加深我們對客戶的了解。之所以如此重要，是因為我們的客戶對風險的需求正在迅速發展。我的意思是，大流行加速了這一點。所以風險更加複雜。它們之間的聯繫更緊密。組織正在努力應對的風險範圍更廣。我們已經談過了。但是更好地了解這些需求使我們能夠生產出客戶重視的新產品，然後轉化為每位客戶的更多收入，並在新的細分市場中增加新客戶。

The second is investing with intent to grow and scale. And in 2021, we made a number of moves to enhance our offerings and our competitive position in key markets. That included insurance and climate and KYC and commercial real estate. And really, the goal here, Kevin, is to have more comprehensive offerings, again, to be able to deepen customer penetration and to add new customers that allow us to grow faster.

第二個是投資，旨在增長和擴大規模。 2021 年，我們採取了一系列舉措來增強我們的產品和我們在關鍵市場的競爭地位。這包括保險和氣候以及 KYC 和商業房地產。事實上，Kevin 的目標是再次提供更全面的產品，以便能夠加深客戶滲透並增加新客戶，使我們能夠更快地發展。

The third area that I talked about as a focus area was collaborating, modernizing and innovating. And we're working together across the company to provide our customers with this more integrated and holistic view of risk. And that means enhancing the workflow platforms for our customers and connecting them in ways that add real value, but also bearing down on technology enablement across the firm to help our own people become more efficient and to be able to leverage tools from across the firm.

我談到的第三個重點領域是協作、現代化和創新。我們正在整個公司共同努力，為我們的客戶提供這種更綜合、更全面的風險視圖。這意味著為我們的客戶增強工作流程平台，並以增加真正價值的方式將他們聯繫起來，同時還要加強整個公司的技術支持，以幫助我們自己的員工變得更有效率，並能夠利用整個公司的工具。

So Kevin, maybe just if you would allow me just kind of looking out now into the year ahead, I think the strategy and the road map are set. We've been very clear about that for the last year. We're now focused on activating our people and accelerating our growth. And this year, I think you're going to see us focus on a few key things that are going to contribute to delivering long-term shareholder value: exceeding our customers' expectations by better understanding their sense of value and delivering a better experience; realizing the benefits of investments, especially over the last 12 months because they've been substantial to drive industry-leading growth; building out what we call internally our risk operating system so that we can deliver differentiated integrated solutions; and then finally, making Moody's a place that people want to come and stay. And I think as we do that, we're going to be able to really deliver for our stakeholders, our employees, our customers, our investors and our communities.

所以凱文，如果你允許我現在展望未來一年，我認為戰略和路線圖已經確定。去年我們對此非常清楚。我們現在專注於激活我們的員工並加速我們的發展。今年，我認為您將看到我們專注於有助於實現長期股東價值的一些關鍵事項：通過更好地理解客戶的價值感和提供更好的體驗來超越客戶的期望；意識到投資的好處，尤其是在過去 12 個月內，因為它們對推動行業領先的增長具有重要意義；建立我們內部所謂的風險操作系統，以便我們能夠提供差異化的集成解決方案；最後，讓穆迪成為人們想來住的地方。我認為，當我們這樣做時，我們將能夠真正為我們的利益相關者、我們的員工、我們的客戶、我們的投資者和我們的社區提供服務。

That's super, super helpful. And then just real quick, Mark. On the buyback, it looks like you're going to be about 2x what you were in '21. Any thoughts as to what drove that decision? Is that just capital allocation within the context of potential M&A? And just it's obviously, you've got the cash flow and the enterprise ability to do it, but just any thoughts around that because it just really, really underscores the model.

太棒了，超級有幫助。然後真的很快，馬克。在回購時，看起來你將是 21 年的 2 倍。關於是什麼推動了這個決定的任何想法？這僅僅是潛在併購背景下的資本配置嗎？很明顯，你有現金流和企業能力來做到這一點，但只是圍繞它的任何想法，因為它真的，真的強調了這個模型。

No, Kevin. Absolutely. So maybe let me do a little bit of contextual answer and then I'll address the specific question. So we remain very focused on prudent capital planning and allocation. As a management team, we first identify opportunities for organic and inorganic investments in high-growth markets, like we did in 2021 that really enrich the ecosystem of data, analytical solutions and insights that are required to serve our customers. And then after deploying those investment dollars, we seek to return capital to our stockholders through share repurchases and dividends.

不，凱文。絕對地。所以也許讓我做一些上下文回答，然後我會解決具體問題。因此，我們仍然非常關注審慎的資本規劃和分配。作為管理團隊，我們首先確定在高增長市場進行有機和無機投資的機會，就像我們在 2021 年所做的那樣，真正豐富了為客戶服務所需的數據、分析解決方案和洞察力的生態系統。然後在部署這些投資資金後，我們尋求通過股票回購和股息向股東返還資本。

And in 2022, we plan to return at least $2 billion, about 80% of our global free cash flow, to our stockholders, subject, of course, to available cash, market conditions, et cetera. And that's going to include our expectation to repurchase at least $1.5 billion in shares, including the execution of a $500 million ASR in the first half of the year, as well as approximately $500 million in dividends through a quarterly dividend of $0.70 per share, which is 13% increase from our prior quarterly dividend of $0.62. And really, finally, I think the key point here is, we do remain very committed as a team to anchoring our financial leverage around a BBB+ rating, which we believe provides an optimal balance between lowering the cost of capital and elevating our financial flexibility.

到 2022 年，我們計劃向我們的股東返還至少 20 億美元，約占我們全球自由現金流的 80%，當然，這取決於可用現金、市場條件等。這將包括我們預期回購至少 15 億美元的股票，包括在今年上半年執行 5 億美元的 ASR，以及通過每股 0.70 美元的季度股息獲得約 5 億美元的股息，其中比我們之前的季度股息 0.62 美元增加了 13%。實際上，最後，我認為這裡的關鍵點是，作為一個團隊，我們仍然非常致力於將我們的財務槓桿錨定在 BBB+ 評級附近，我們認為這在降低資本成本和提高我們的財務靈活性之間提供了最佳平衡。

And we'll go ahead and take our next question from Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

我們將繼續討論 Andrew Nicholas 和 William Blair 的下一個問題。

I guess my first one would just be to hone in a bit more on issuance and the outlook for '22. You spoke a little bit about this in your prepared remarks, obviously. But could you spend some time just kind of talking about the biggest swing factors that could affect issuance this year and maybe how you think about the range of potential outcomes around the 2% issuance decline figure with those factors in mind?

我想我的第一個問題只是在發行和 22 年的前景上多加磨練。顯然，您在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。但是，您能否花一些時間來談談可能影響今年發行量的最大波動因素，以及考慮到這些因素，您如何看待圍繞 2% 發行量下降數字的潛在結果範圍？

Yes. Sure, Andrew, happy to do that. I talked a little bit in the prepared remarks about some ongoing tailwinds. We've got a positive macroeconomic backdrop. We've got healthy M&A pipeline, continuing refinancing needs. But we also, and we've talked about this a number of times on this call, we've got a tough comp. So as we talked about, for 2022, we're looking at issuance to decline in that low single-digit percent range. And let me talk a little bit about what goes into that and what may be some of the upside, downside.

是的。當然，安德魯，很高興這樣做。我在準備好的評論中談到了一些正在進行的順風。我們有一個積極的宏觀經濟背景。我們有健康的併購渠道，持續的再融資需求。但我們也，我們在這次電話會議上多次討論過這個問題，我們有一個艱難的組合。因此，正如我們所談到的，到 2022 年，我們預計發行量將在這個低個位數百分比範圍內下降。讓我談談其中的內容以及可能有哪些好處和壞處。

I think a real key to our outlook is around leveraged loans. And you could see that our guidance is that we expect leveraged loans to be off something like 10% off of what was a really strong year last year. But I would note that there is an enormous amount of private equity money that's got to get put to work. And that's going to continue to drive leveraged loan activity. And we have seen that in the month of January despite the fact that there has been some volatility, and that's impacted investment grade and high yield. Leveraged loans have continued a very robust pace. So that for us is really something to watch when you look at the outlook. And then depending on what goes on with leveraged loans, we would expect that to spill over to CLOs, certainly, like we saw last year. And then obviously, a big wild card and that we're all focused on is kind of the pace and trajectory of interest rate hikes. And that we're going to have to see how that plays out.

我認為我們前景的真正關鍵在於槓桿貸款。你可以看到我們的指導是，我們預計槓桿貸款將比去年真正強勁的一年低 10%。但我要指出，有大量的私募股權資金需要投入使用。這將繼續推動槓桿貸款活動。儘管存在一些波動，但我們在 1 月份已經看到了這一點，這影響了投資等級和高收益。槓桿貸款繼續保持強勁步伐。因此，對於我們來說，當您展望前景時，這確實值得關注。然後根據槓桿貸款的情況，我們預計這會蔓延到 CLO，當然，就像我們去年看到的那樣。然後很明顯，我們都關注的一個巨大的外卡是加息的速度和軌跡。我們將不得不看看結果如何。

In terms of kind of the downside, maybe just to touch on a couple of things on our mind there. I think Omicron reminded us that COVID variants can still be a little bit of a wild card to economic recovery and supply chain issues that are exacerbating inflation and then in turn, may have some impact on interest rates. And I think just in general, as central banks are starting a tightening cycle and starting to back away from all the monetary stimulus that has been in the economy over the last several years, I think there's just, again, kind of back to the pace and how the market expects that to unfold produces, I think there's a chance for an unexpected surprise, right, any time that you've got something like this going on. And if there's an unexpected surprise, we're going to see bouts of volatility. We've seen a little bit of that already. There wasn't much volatility the last 2 years. It was just kind of full-on. So if we do see that, that may provide a little bit of downside.

就不利的一面而言，也許只是為了談談我們心中的一些事情。我認為 Omicron 提醒我們，對於經濟復甦和供應鏈問題來說，COVID 變種仍然可能是一張通配符，這些問題會加劇通貨膨脹，進而可能對利率產生一些影響。而且我認為，總的來說，隨著中央銀行開始緊縮週期並開始退出過去幾年經濟中的所有貨幣刺激措施，我認為又一次回到了步伐以及市場對這種情況的預期如何產生，我認為有機會出現意想不到的驚喜，對，任何時候你都會遇到這樣的事情。如果出現意外的驚喜，我們將看到一輪又一輪的波動。我們已經看到了一點。過去兩年沒有太大波動。這只是一種全面。因此，如果我們確實看到了這一點，那可能會帶來一些不利影響。

Great. That's really helpful, particularly on leveraged loans. I guess for my follow-up, I was just hoping you could provide an update on the ratings business in China, expectations for when that could be material. And I guess within that, how much growth in that business or in that market are you embedding in the low to mid-single-digit growth expectation for MIS over the next 5 years?

偉大的。這真的很有幫助，尤其是在槓桿貸款方面。我想對於我的後續行動，我只是希望您能提供有關中國收視率業務的最新信息，並期望這何時會變得重要。我猜想，在未來 5 年 MIS 的低到中個位數增長預期中，您對該業務或該市場的增長有多少？

Yes, Andrew, maybe let me just talk a little bit more broadly about how we're addressing the broader Chinese credit market because I think that's how we're thinking, really thinking about it. And the first way we're doing that is serving international investors who are investing in bonds that are issued by Chinese companies in the cross-border market. And there, we have a very strong position through MIS, and we expect that position to continue.

是的，安德魯，也許讓我更廣泛地談談我們如何應對更廣泛的中國信貸市場，因為我認為這就是我們正在思考的方式，真正在思考它。我們這樣做的第一種方式是為投資中國公司在跨境市場上發行的債券的國際投資者提供服務。在那裡，我們通過 MIS 擁有非常強大的地位，我們希望這種地位能夠繼續下去。

The second is international investors who are investing in local currency bonds issued by Chinese companies in the domestic bond market. And we recently launched something called China CreditView. I talked about it, I think, in the last earnings call. That covers about 1,000 Chinese companies with ratings and model-derived ratings, financial statements, financial statement scores. And we've been really pleased with the early reception to that product. We've got almost 100 active prospects from our core international investor customer base. And they really like the access to the broad coverage and the global scale ratings.

二是國際投資者在國內債券市場投資中國企業發行的本幣債券。我們最近推出了一個叫做China CreditView的東西。我認為，我在上次財報電話會議上談到了它。這涵蓋了大約 1000 家具有評級和模型衍生評級、財務報表、財務報表分數的中國公司。我們對該產品的早期接受感到非常滿意。我們的核心國際投資者客戶群擁有近 100 個活躍的潛在客戶。他們真的很喜歡獲得廣泛的覆蓋範圍和全球規模的評級。

The third are domestic Chinese investors who are investing in the local currency domestic bond market. And here, we address that, as you're probably aware, through CCXI. And despite some challenges last year, they continue to be the market leader. Just to kind of put it in perspective for you, last year, they completed several thousand ratings, including both fundamental and structured finance. So the scale of that business is quite significant. So all of this is factored into both our outlook for both MIS but also as well as MA.

第三類是投資本幣國內債券市場的中國國內投資者。在這裡，正如您可能知道的那樣，我們通過 CCXI 解決了這個問題。儘管去年遇到了一些挑戰，但他們仍然是市場領導者。只是為了讓您了解一下，去年，他們完成了數千個評級，包括基本面和結構性金融。因此，該業務的規模相當可觀。因此，所有這些都被納入我們對 MIS 和 MA 的展望。

And we're going to move on to our next question from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

我們將繼續討論托尼卡普蘭與摩根士丹利的下一個問題。

I wanted to ask about the new medium term or 5-year guidance. You're looking for revenue of low to mid-teens in MA despite having RMS, which historically was lower growth. I know you're expecting a lot of synergies there. But just talk about sort of what has to go right versus what are the biggest risks to the medium-term guidance in MA.

我想問一下新的中期或5年指導。儘管擁有 RMS，但您正在尋找 MA 中低到中青少年的收入，而 RMS 在歷史上是較低的增長。我知道你期待那裡有很多協同作用。但只要談談什麼是正確的，什麼是 MA 中期指導的最大風險。

Toni, good afternoon. The MA medium-term revenue outlook that we're providing this morning of low to mid-teens percentage growth really does reflect our confidence in the significant opportunity we have given customers' demand for our integrated risk assessment products and solutions. We believe there are multiple paths to achieving this target, at least one of which is through continued investment in organic product development and sales distribution capacity. And it's through these organic investments, along with projected growth in our recurring revenue base, that we expect total MA organic revenue to grow at the higher end of the low teens percentage range, for example, to at least $4 billion by year-end 2025.

托尼，下午好。我們今天上午提供的 MA 中期收入前景的增長率為低至十幾歲，確實反映了我們對我們為客戶提供對我們的綜合風險評估產品和解決方案的需求的重大機會的信心。我們認為實現這一目標有多種途徑，其中至少一條是通過對有機產品開發和銷售分銷能力的持續投資。正是通過這些有機投資，以及我們經常性收入基礎的預期增長，我們預計 MA 有機總收入將增長到低青少年百分比範圍的高端，例如，到 2025 年底至少達到 40 億美元.

Naturally, any incremental bolt-on M&A that accelerates or advances our capabilities and product offerings and which is hypothetically similar in size and scope to how historically completed acquisitions could elevate us to the mid-teens percentage revenue growth. And putting that in context, we also recognize that strategic success is not only about revenue growth, but also about concurrently expanding the margin. And so we are reaffirming in the outlook that we issued today the medium term mid-30s MA adjusted operating margin as subscription-based products provide more operating leverage and as recurring revenue comprises an increasing proportion of MA's total revenue over the medium term.

自然，任何加速或提升我們的能力和產品供應的增量併購，其規模和範圍都與歷史上完成的收購相似，可以將我們的收入增長提升到十幾歲的百分比。結合這一點，我們也認識到戰略成功不僅關乎收入增長，還關乎同時擴大利潤率。因此，我們在展望中重申，我們今天發布了中期 30 年代中期 MA 調整後的營業利潤率，因為基於訂閱的產品提供了更多的經營槓桿，並且經常性收入在中期 MA 總收入中所佔的比例越來越大。

That's great. Wanted to also ask about ESG. Last quarter, you talked about revenue for this year all-in being sort of like $26 million to $30 million. I just wanted to get an update on where that ended up. And is 20% the right growth rate to be thinking of going forward for ESG or should it be higher than that? And where are the fastest-growing areas that we should be thinking of for ESG growth?

那太棒了。還想詢問 ESG。上個季度，您談到今年的總收入約為 2600 萬至 3000 萬美元。我只是想了解最新情況。考慮到 ESG 的發展，20% 的增長率是正確的，還是應該更高？對於 ESG 增長，我們應該考慮哪些增長最快的領域？

Yes. Toni, this is Rob. I'll probably start by just giving you some idea of kind of where we're focused this year around ESG, and then I think Mark can give you the specifics to your question.

是的。托尼，這是羅布。我可能會首先讓您了解我們今年圍繞 ESG 的重點，然後我認為 Mark 可以為您提供問題的具體細節。

But as we look out this year, I think our goal is really to build and scale the relevance of our ESG offerings. And that's really important. And we hear from both companies and investors that they want us to play a meaningful role in the ESG space because they like our transparency and comparability and they trust our methodologies and our analytics and our data. There are some keys to that. And I think you're going to see us building out coverage across the rating agency.

但正如我們今年展望的那樣，我認為我們的目標實際上是建立和擴展我們 ESG 產品的相關性。這真的很重要。我們從公司和投資者那裡聽到，他們希望我們在 ESG 領域發揮有意義的作用，因為他們喜歡我們的透明度和可比性，並且信任我們的方法、分析和數據。有一些關鍵。我認為你會看到我們在評級機構中擴大覆蓋範圍。

ESG and climate are increasingly important considerations to credit, we all know that, but also sustainable finance is becoming a core part of many issuers funding program. So at the end of last year, we had almost 2,000 credit impact scores, ESG credit impact scores which speak to the impact of E, S and G on an issuer's credit profile. And these scores have got, they've got a transparent methodology, but also there's engagement with the issuers and our analysts. And we're going to be expanding our coverage by thousands more over the course of this year, and that's going to give us ESG credit impact scores across a much broader part of the MIS-rated portfolio that benefit from the engagement with our analysts.

ESG 和氣候是越來越重要的信貸考慮因素，眾所周知，可持續金融也正在成為許多發行人融資計劃的核心部分。所以在去年底，我們有近 2,000 個信用影響評分，ESG 信用影響評分說明了 E、S 和 G 對發行人信用狀況的影響。這些分數已經得到，他們有一個透明的方法，但也有與發行人和我們的分析師的接觸。我們將在今年將覆蓋範圍擴大數千倍，這將為我們在 MIS 評級投資組合中更廣泛的部分提供 ESG 信用影響評分，這些投資組合受益於我們的分析師的參與。

We're going to be expanding to help meet the sustainable finance needs of our issuers, and you're going to see that in probably around the middle of this year where we start to expand our coverage of our second-party opinions on sustainable issuance. And then I think in the second half of the year, you're also going to see us start to build out things like our net zero and sustainability rating offerings.

我們將擴大規模以幫助滿足發行人的可持續融資需求，您可能會在今年年中左右看到我們開始擴大對可持續發行第二方意見的覆蓋範圍.然後我認為在今年下半年，您還將看到我們開始構建諸如淨零和可持續性評級產品之類的東西。

So that's on top of the ESG measures that cover thousands and thousands of companies with public information, but also our ESG Score Predictor that covers over 140 million companies that supports things like sustainable sourcing and know your counterparty needs. So that's really the focus for us this year. And how that's going to translate into revenue, Mark, you might want to talk about that.

因此，這是在 ESG 衡量標準之上，該衡量標準涵蓋了成千上萬擁有公共信息的公司，而且我們的 ESG 分數預測器涵蓋了超過 1.4 億家支持可持續採購等支持並了解您的交易對手需求的公司。所以這確實是我們今年的重點。以及這將如何轉化為收入，馬克，你可能想談談這個。

Absolutely. So in 2021, our actual ESG revenue was approximately $29 million. And that reflected $22 million in stand-alone ESG revenue related to our climate solutions, sustainable finance and ESG research and insight products as well as an additional $7 million from integrating our ESG-related solutions into MIS' and MA's products that Rob spoke about. So that's a 36% year-over-year growth.

絕對地。因此，在 2021 年，我們的實際 ESG 收入約為 2900 萬美元。這反映了與我們的氣候解決方案、可持續金融和 ESG 研究和洞察產品相關的 2200 萬美元獨立 ESG 收入，以及將我們的 ESG 相關解決方案集成到 Rob 談到的 MIS 和 MA 產品中的額外 700 萬美元。因此，同比增長 36%。

For 2022, we are expecting to further increase our direct and attributable ESG-related revenue by another approximately 35% to $40 million. And the drivers for our estimated 2022 ESG financial performance are going to include increased demand for those climate solutions and the need to include and integrate those ESG factors into the credit analysis and investment decisions.

到 2022 年，我們預計直接和應佔 ESG 相關收入將再增加約 35%，達到 4,000 萬美元。我們預計 2022 年 ESG 財務業績的驅動因素將包括對這些氣候解決方案的需求增加，以及需要將這些 ESG 因素納入信用分析和投資決策。

Just as a reminder, we do have a significant amount of climate-related revenue within RMS, which we are considering reporting perhaps later this year, together with our direct and attributable ESG-related revenue to give you a holistic picture.

提醒一下，我們在 RMS 內部確實有大量與氣候相關的收入，我們正在考慮可能在今年晚些時候報告這些收入，連同我們的直接和應佔 ESG 相關收入，以便為您提供整體情況。

We'll move to our next question from Alex Kramm with UBS.

我們將轉到瑞銀的 Alex Kramm 的下一個問題。

Wanted to ask another one on the medium-term guidance. And sorry if this is specific and you may have answered this already, but I may have not heard it correctly. But on the medium-term top line guide, the 10% plus and also the MA guide low to mid-teens, I think in your question just now, you referred to the recurring organic growth rate, but is that guidance actually 100% organic including recurring and nonrecurring or does this actually potentially include some M&A? I wasn't 100% clear.

想請教另外一位關於中期的指導。抱歉，如果這是具體的，您可能已經回答了這個問題，但我可能沒有正確聽到。但在中期頂線指南、10% 以上以及 MA 指南中，我認為在您剛才的問題中，您提到了經常性有機增長率，但該指南實際上是 100% 有機的嗎？包括經常性和非經常性，還是這實際上可能包括一些併購？我不是 100% 清楚。

Sure, Alex. I'll try to be as clear as I can. So the MIS, sorry, the MCO medium-term target, which really includes the combined MA and MIS medium-term revenue guidance of at least an average annual 10% revenue CAGR, we see a path to achieving that organically. If I look at MA specifically, we expect the organic revenue to grow at the higher end of the low teens percentage range and that any bolt-on M&A over and above that, that accelerates our capabilities will move us into that mid-teens percentage range. Rob, I don't know if you want to spend a couple of minutes on MIS and how we're thinking about that in the medium term.

當然，亞歷克斯。我會盡量說清楚。因此，MIS，抱歉，MCO 中期目標，其中真正包括 MA 和 MIS 的中期收入指導，至少平均每年 10% 的收入複合年增長率，我們看到了實現這一目標的途徑。如果我特別看 MA，我們預計有機收入將在青少年百分比範圍的高端增長，並且任何超出此範圍的附加併購，加速我們的能力將使我們進入青少年百分比範圍. Rob，我不知道您是否願意花幾分鐘時間了解 MIS，以及我們在中期如何考慮這一點。

That's probably, that's its own topic. Alex, I'm happy to cover that if you'd like, but let me just pause there.

這可能是它自己的話題。亞歷克斯，如果你願意，我很樂意介紹，但讓我停在那裡。

I mean, sure, if you want to answer. I have another question, but go ahead.

我的意思是，當然，如果你想回答。我還有一個問題，但請繼續。

All right. Well, I guess the other leg of this, right, is the MIS kind of medium-term outlook. And I guess, let me just kind of share with you how we thought about it. So for starters, I think we all understand we're at the tail end of a period of ultra-low interest rates. We've just finished 2 years of enormous issuance and we're entering a tightening cycle. And I think that would imply some natural headwind versus issuance over the last several years, and you can see that in this year's guide for MIS.

好的。好吧，我想另一邊，對，是 MIS 的中期展望。我想，讓我和你分享一下我們是怎麼想的。所以對於初學者來說，我想我們都明白我們正處於超低利率時期的尾聲。我們剛剛完成了兩年的巨額發行，我們正在進入一個緊縮週期。我認為這意味著過去幾年與發行相比存在一些自然的逆風，你可以在今年的 MIS 指南中看到這一點。

So we've put out a range for MIS revenue growth. And consistent with this year's guide, we expect to be at the lower end of that range in the short term. And as rates and growth expectations normalize, we'd expect to see a pickup in MIS revenue growth towards the higher end of that range such that, on average, over the 5 years, we're at low to mid-single digits. And Alex, I'm happy to or anybody else on the call, I'm happy to build on that and what went into that outlook, but let me just pause there and see if we can get to your next question.

因此，我們提出了 MIS 收入增長的範圍。與今年的指南一致，我們預計短期內將處於該範圍的下限。隨著利率和增長預期正常化，我們預計 MIS 收入增長將回升到該範圍的高端，因此，平均而言，在 5 年內，我們處於中低個位數。亞歷克斯，我很高興或其他任何人參加電話會議，我很高興在此基礎上再接再厲，但讓我暫停一下，看看我們是否可以回答你的下一個問題。

This next one probably dovetails and again, I may be scrutinizing here a lot in this medium-term outlook, but you obviously used to have a long-term outlook that, I guess, you're no longer going to have and it called for, I think, low teens EPS growth. So medium term, low double digits.

下一個可能是吻合的，我可能會在這個中期前景中仔細審查，但你顯然曾經有一個長期的前景，我想，你將不再擁有，它需要，我認為，青少年每股收益增長較低。所以中期，低兩位數。

I guess, again, I'm just scrutinizing here a little bit because it's almost the same, but isn't this essentially a little bit of a lower growth outlook? And is that related to what you just talked about on the ratings side? So just wanted to confirm how we should be comparing your long term with your medium-term guidance that you just laid out.

我想，再一次，我只是在這裡仔細檢查一下，因為它幾乎是一樣的，但這本質上不是有點低增長前景嗎？這和你剛才談到的收視率有關嗎？所以只是想確認我們應該如何將您的長期指導與您剛剛制定的中期指導進行比較。

Alex, we expect to grow adjusted diluted EPS in the low double-digit percent range over the medium term by balancing organic and to the extent needed inorganic investments with the return of capital to stockholders. The difference between our new medium-term adjusted EPS target and the prior long-term EPS guidance is primarily driven by the expectation for incremental organic strategic investment and reduced capital leverage from share repurchases based on the assumption that Moody's share price continues to increase as well as lower discrete tax benefits on a percentage basis as adjusted net income itself grows.

亞歷克斯，我們預計通過平衡有機投資和必要的無機投資與股東的資本回報，在中期內將調整後的稀釋後每股收益增長到兩位數的低位。我們新的中期調整後每股收益目標與之前的長期每股收益指引之間的差異主要是由於對增量有機戰略投資的預期以及基於穆迪股價繼續上漲的假設而降低股票回購的資本槓桿。隨著調整後的淨收入本身的增長，按百分比降低離散稅收優惠。

We'll move on to our next question from Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

我們將繼續討論來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ashish Sabadra 的下一個問題。

So Rob, I'll just follow up to the question that you just answered, and I was wondering if you could actually provide more detail around what is baked into your issuance assumption because I would have expected issuance on a more normalized basis growing more in the low to mid-single digit, plus you have pricing power, recurring revenue growth and getting more to mid to high single digit over the next few years versus mid-single digit over the midterm. So any color on that front will be helpful on the issuance front.

所以 Rob，我會繼續回答你剛剛回答的問題，我想知道你是否真的可以提供更多關於你的發行假設中包含的內容的詳細信息，因為我預計發行量會在更規範的基礎上增長更多低到中個位數，加上你有定價能力，經常性收入增長，並在未來幾年內獲得更多到中高個位數，而不是中期的中個位數。因此，這方面的任何顏色都會對發行方面有所幫助。

You bet, Ashish. You've got the algorithm. So let me just talk about the factors as we develop that range. And you're right, we always talk about issuance activity being highly correlated to GDP growth over the medium to long term. But it's interesting, if you just step back and look at the last couple of years, in 2020, we had economic contraction and we had enormous issuance. So that relationship hasn't necessarily held.

你打賭，阿希什。你有算法。因此，讓我談談我們開發該範圍的因素。你是對的，我們總是談論發行活動與中長期 GDP 增長高度相關。但有趣的是，如果你回過頭來看看過去幾年，在 2020 年，我們經歷了經濟收縮，而且發行量巨大。所以這種關係不一定成立。

And this year, obviously, as we look forward, we've got economic growth, but our outlook for issuance is to be slightly down. And what I think we've got going on is that there is a digestion and normalization period that's going on here as we come out of the pandemic and these unprecedented amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus that have driven all of this issuance and we've had this kind of rapid economic cycles. But on average, we expect that relationship to hold.

今年，顯然，正如我們所期待的那樣，我們已經實現了經濟增長，但我們的發行前景將略微下調。我認為我們正在經歷一個消化和正常化的時期，隨著我們擺脫大流行以及推動所有這些發行的這些前所未有的貨幣和財政刺激措施，我們已經有過這種快速的經濟周期。但平均而言，我們預計這種關係會持續下去。

So again, I think there's this normalization and digestion period here. But you're exactly right. The other thing that we're looking at, growth in the maturity walls given all of the debt that's been issued over the last several years, and that provides some support or kind of what I think of as like ballast for our transaction-based revenues.

再說一次，我認為這裡有這個正常化和消化期。但你完全正確。我們正在關注的另一件事是，鑑於過去幾年發行的所有債務，到期牆的增長，這為我們基於交易的收入提供了一些支持或某種我認為的鎮流器.

On the last earnings call, I think we talked about the forward 4-year refunding needs have increased something like 9% to $4 trillion for U.S. and European issuers. There's just a lot of debt out there that's got to get refinanced, and it was something like 19% for U.S. leveraged loan maturities.

在上一次財報電話會議上，我認為我們談到美國和歐洲發行人的 4 年遠期退款需求增加了 9% 至 4 萬億美元。有很多債務需要再融資，美國槓桿貸款到期的比例約為 19%。

So there was some pull forward, further pull forward in the fourth quarter, but I don't think it was outside of historical ranges. So these maturity walls still imply some good support for future issuance. We've got pretty good visibility and confidence around recurring revenues, especially with all the first-time issuers that have come into the market. I think the recent strength of the leveraged loan market provides support for a view that disintermediation is still alive and well.

所以在第四季度有一些向前推進，進一步向前推進，但我認為這並沒有超出歷史範圍。因此，這些期限壁壘仍然意味著對未來發行的一些良好支持。我們對經常性收入有很好的知名度和信心，特別是對於所有首次進入市場的發行人。我認為最近槓桿貸款市場的強勢支持了一種觀點，即去中介化仍然存在並且很好。

And then, Ashish, you noted the opportunity for us to kind of support and enhance the value we deliver to our customers, things like sustainable finance that I touched on are places where we're going to be able to expand our offerings and support our value proposition and in turn, support our pricing.

然後，Ashish，您注意到我們有機會支持並提高我們為客戶提供的價值，比如我提到的可持續金融是我們能夠擴展我們的產品並支持我們的價值主張，進而支持我們的定價。

So the way I think about it Ashish is, near term, we've got some digestion and normalization, but the structural drivers to support MIS revenue growth, I mean, they're intact over the medium term. And so I would expect growth to start to kind of pick up through the medium-term horizon from that low single digit to more like that mid-single-digit.

因此，我認為 Ashish 的方式是，短期內，我們已經進行了一些消化和正常化，但支持 MIS 收入增長的結構性驅動因素，我的意思是，它們在中期是完整的。因此，我預計增長將在中期範圍內開始回升，從那個低個位數上升到更像那個中個位數。

That's very helpful color, Rob. And Mark, maybe if I can ask a question on the multiyear investment, thanks again for that slide with the detail there. But as we think about in '22, we're going to have a total of $300 million of organic investment. How should we think about that going forward in '23 and over the midterm? Should that come down as we go from an elevated organic investment to a more normalized investment cycle? And is that the key driver for significant margin expansion on the MA side?

這是非常有用的顏色，羅布。馬克，如果我能問一個關於多年投資的問題，再次感謝那張包含詳細信息的幻燈片。但正如我們在 22 年所考慮的那樣，我們將獲得總計 3 億美元的有機投資。我們應該如何看待 23 年和中期的發展？隨著我們從高水平的有機投資轉向更正常的投資週期，這種情況是否應該下降？這是否是 MA 方面利潤率大幅擴張的關鍵驅動因素？

Sure. In 2022, we are expecting to increase our spending on organic strategic investments to be approximately $150 million. And that's really aimed at capturing the incremental opportunities we are seeing in the market. And that implies that our planned spend over the 2-year period is approximately $300 million. These anticipated investments are really going to be focused on increasing our sales force and go-to-market activities. It's going to be a continuation of our 2021 strategic investment road maps in the high-priority markets, specifically KYC, CRE, banking, ESG and climate, et cetera, as well as some of the technology enablement and product development that we're focused on.

當然。到 2022 年，我們預計將在有機戰略投資上的支出增加至約 1.5 億美元。這實際上旨在捕捉我們在市場上看到的增量機會。這意味著我們在 2 年內的計劃支出約為 3 億美元。這些預期的投資將真正集中在增加我們的銷售隊伍和上市活動上。這將是我們 2021 年在高優先級市場的戰略投資路線圖的延續，特別是 KYC、CRE、銀行、ESG 和氣候等，以及我們關注的一些技術支持和產品開發在。

I also want to just mention that in addition to this $150 million, we are expecting expenses to increase by at least $50 million as we also continue investing in our employees. And again, our employees connect deeply to our mission as a company, and we want to make sure that we attract and retain the best talent in order to achieve our growth aspirations.

我還想提一下，除了這 1.5 億美元之外，我們預計費用將至少增加 5000 萬美元，因為我們還將繼續投資於我們的員工。同樣，我們的員工與我們作為一家公司的使命有著深刻的聯繫，我們希望確保我們吸引和留住最優秀的人才，以實現我們的增長願望。

As I think forward to the MA margin over the medium term, these investments to the extent that they continue to be productive and favorable will continue forward, and they will be allocated in the way that we think about the highest and best use of capital and prioritization so that we both achieve revenue growth and ongoing margin expansion, not just in 2022, but over the medium term.

正如我對中期 MA 利潤率的展望，這些投資在繼續產生效益和有利的情況下將繼續向前發展，它們將以我們認為最高和最佳利用資本的方式進行分配，優先級，以便我們不僅在 2022 年，而且在中期實現收入增長和持續的利潤率擴張。

And we'll take our next question from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets.

我們將回答 BMO 資本市場的 Jeff Silber 的下一個問題。

I'm sorry to go back to your medium-term guidance, but I just wanted to clarify something. Can you talk broader about the capital allocation priorities that are built into this in terms of not only internal investment, but just as importantly, shareholder returns?

很抱歉回到你的中期指導，但我只是想澄清一些事情。您能否更廣泛地談談其中包含的資本配置優先事項，不僅包括內部投資，而且同樣重要的是股東回報？

Absolutely. Capital allocation priorities over the medium term will follow the comments I provided earlier on the call, meaning principally focused on organic and inorganic investments back into the business. We have not assumed any incremental inorganic investments other than those we have publicly announced to the market through and as of today's date.

絕對地。中期的資本配置優先事項將遵循我之前在電話會議上提供的評論，這意味著主要集中在對業務的有機和無機投資上。除了我們截至今天為止向市場公開宣布的投資外，我們沒有承擔任何增量無機投資。

However, to the extent in the upcoming periods we do have inorganic investments that continue to bring valuable talent and additional products and solutions into our umbrella that will serve to enhance and accelerate the achievement of those medium-term targets within that 5-year window.

然而，在未來一段時間內，我們確實有無機投資，這些投資將繼續為我們帶來寶貴的人才和額外的產品和解決方案，這將有助於在 5 年窗口內加強和加速實現這些中期目標。

And I'm sorry, I was specifically focused on return of capital to shareholders. You talked about an 80% return of free cash flow this year. Is that something that we can kind of build in going forward?

對不起，我特別關注向股東返還資本。您談到了今年 80% 的自由現金流回報率。這是我們可以在未來建立的東西嗎？

I think the way that you could think about return of capital to shareholders either through share repurchases or dividends is that we will execute that post any internal organic or sorry, either internal organic or inorganic acquisition-related activity. We are focused around a BBB+ rating level, and that's because we believe that provides the best balance between return of capital to shareholders and our cost of capital. We are not focused on a return of or percentage return of free cash flow over the medium-term period.

我認為您可以考慮通過股票回購或股息向股東返還資本的方式是，我們將執行任何內部有機或抱歉，內部有機或無機收購相關活動。我們專注於 BBB+ 評級水平，這是因為我們相信這在股東的資本回報和我們的資本成本之間提供了最佳平衡。我們並不關注中期自由現金流的回報或百分比回報。

Okay. Great. And if I could just follow up with one quick one. Actually, this is looking backwards at the fourth quarter. if I specifically focus on margins within MA, I think you talked about on an annual basis what the impact was in terms of some of the investments. What was the impact on the fourth quarter? What would margins have been without some of the investments you made?

好的。偉大的。如果我可以快速跟進一個。實際上，這是在回顧第四季度。如果我特別關注 MA 內的利潤率，我想你每年都會談到一些投資的影響。對第四季度有何影響？如果沒有您進行的一些投資，利潤率會是多少？

Yes. So maybe compared to our implied fourth quarter margin from the last earnings call, we did accrue for a couple of things. One is higher incentive compensation and commissions of about 300 basis points. We also had additional costs related to acquisitions that we announced, and that's about 200 basis points. And then specific to your question, we pulled forward select investments from 2022 into the fourth quarter of 2021, and that's worth around 400 basis points.

是的。因此，也許與上次財報電話會議隱含的第四季度利潤率相比，我們確實積累了一些東西。一是更高的激勵薪酬和佣金，約300個基點。我們還有與我們宣布的收購相關的額外成本，大約是 200 個基點。然後針對您的問題，我們將精選投資從 2022 年提前到 2021 年第四季度，這價值約 400 個基點。

And that's all in MA?

這就是MA的全部內容？

Primarily in MA, correct.

主要在 MA 中，正確。

We'll move on to our next question from Andrew Steinerman with JPMorgan.

我們將繼續討論來自摩根大通的 Andrew Steinerman 的下一個問題。

I just wanted to ask one more question about the underlying assumptions with the MIS medium-term revenue growth target of low single to mid-single-digit revenue growth. So just bear with me for a second. So we looked back at the correlation between MIS' revenue growth and issuance growth 2017 to 2021. On average, just take my number, on average, MIS revenue growth outperformed issuance by 5.6%.

我只是想再問一個問題，關於 MIS 中期收入增長目標為低個位數到中個位數收入增長的基本假設。所以請耐心等待我一秒鐘。因此，我們回顧了 2017 年至 2021 年 MIS 收入增長與發行增長之間的相關性。平均而言，僅以我的數字為例，平均而言，MIS 收入增長超過發行量 5.6%。

And so my question is, when you think about that 5-year outlook, do you feel like the amount of outperformance that MIS will grow faster than issuance might be less over the next 5 years than it was in the past number of years? And as you can understand my underlying assumption is if that's, what's your kind of underlying issuance outlook to make for that MIS revenue outlook?

所以我的問題是，當你考慮 5 年的前景時，你是否覺得未來 5 年 MIS 增長速度超過發行量的表現可能比過去幾年少？你可以理解我的基本假設是，如果是這樣，那麼你對 MIS 收入前景的潛在發行前景是什麼？

Yes. Maybe we'll tag team the answer here. Part of it when you think about revenue outperformance of issuance, a number of things go into that, right? One of those is what we talk about, mix. And I think broadly, we have assumed a generally consistent mix with what we've seen over the last several years. That mix has generally been favorable. But then a number of other things go into that, that allow us to typically kind of exceed issuance growth. Remember, I don't know, 1/3 to 40% of the business is recurring, and that continues to grow. Then we've got pricing. We've got new issuers through disintermediation, so those are the kind of building blocks.

是的。也許我們會在這裡標記團隊的答案。當您考慮到發行的收入表現優於發行時，部分原因是其中有很多因素，對嗎？其中之一就是我們所說的，混合。而且我認為從廣義上講，我們假設與過去幾年所見的情況大致一致。這種組合總體上是有利的。但是還有一些其他的事情，這使我們通常能夠超過發行增長。請記住，我不知道，1/3 到 40% 的業務是經常性的，而且還在繼續增長。然後我們有定價。我們通過去中介化獲得了新的發行人，所以這些就是構建塊。

And Rob, maybe I'd only add to that, at least in the near term, within this 5-year period, you could think about elevated cash balances and leverage may constrain some of that more opportunistic issuance in the near term. And that will more normalize over time to Rob's point earlier around digestion and normalization.

Rob，也許我只會補充一點，至少在短期內，在這 5 年期間，你可以考慮提高現金餘額和槓桿率可能會在短期內限制一些更機會主義的發行。隨著時間的推移，這將更加正常化到羅布早些時候關於消化和正常化的觀點。

And we'll go ahead and take our next question from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.

我們將繼續從 Craig Huber 和 Huber Research Partners 那裡回答我們的下一個問題。

Rob, maybe we can start with the RMS acquisition you guys closed on in September. Talk about the, what I think is a big opportunity long term as you guys move that business and branch away from just serving the insurance market there and talk about the upside there long term, please, for starters.

Rob，也許我們可以從你們在 9 月份完成的 RMS 收購開始。談談我認為從長遠來看是一個巨大的機會，因為你們將業務和分支從僅僅服務於那裡的保險市場並談論長期那裡的上行空間，對於初學者來說。

Craig, sorry, I had it on mute. We share the same view. That was part of the attraction is that we see 2 opportunities here, building out a great comprehensive, more comprehensive insurance business, but also taking these kind of weather and climate and disaster capabilities to our broader customer base.

克雷格，對不起，我把它靜音了。我們持有相同的觀點。吸引力的一部分是我們在這裡看到了兩個機會，建立了一個全面、更全面的保險業務，同時也將這些天氣、氣候和災害能力帶給我們更廣泛的客戶群。

So to give you a sense of that, it's interesting. I mean, we go out and talk to banks and asset managers. Some of them are out actually trying to hire folks with climate expertise and it's difficult. These are scarce resources, and that's one thing that attracted us to RMS is it's got world-class expertise at scale. And that is just really difficult to get. But what we hear from when we go out beyond insurance customers, we hear, how is climate risk going to affect my portfolio and how material are the effects? That's part of what we're hearing.

因此，為了讓您了解這一點，這很有趣。我的意思是，我們出去與銀行和資產管理公司交談。他們中的一些人實際上是在試圖僱用具有氣候專業知識的人，這很困難。這些都是稀缺資源，而 RMS 吸引我們的一件事是它擁有世界級的大規模專業知識。這真的很難得到。但是，當我們走出保險客戶之外時，我們聽到的是，氣候風險將如何影響我的投資組合以及影響有多大？這是我們聽到的一部分。

And so we see opportunities around commercial real estate to be able to integrate that into the analytics, commercial mortgage-backed security analytics. We've had some interesting conversations with residential mortgage lenders who want to understand the degree of, for instance, uninsured flood risk beyond what's covered by FEMA. We've got banks who are having to do climate stress testing and need to have more sophisticated tools around that. You've got governments who are now needing to try to understand the vulnerability of their communities to climate change and then start to think about the kinds of risk mitigation investments that they're going to make. And I think with the infrastructure bill, some of that, we're going to see investments in building climate resilience, but you need the data and the tools to be able to assess, are these worthwhile investments and what impact are they going to have on mitigating the financial loss relating to climate change.

因此，我們看到了圍繞商業房地產的機會，可以將其整合到分析、商業抵押貸款支持的安全分析中。我們與住宅抵押貸款機構進行了一些有趣的對話，他們想了解例如 FEMA 所涵蓋的未投保洪水風險的程度。我們有銀行必須進行氣候壓力測試，並且需要有更複雜的工具來解決這個問題。政府現在需要嘗試了解其社區對氣候變化的脆弱性，然後開始考慮他們將進行的風險緩解投資。我認為通過基礎設施法案，其中一些，我們將看到建設氣候復原力的投資，但你需要能夠評估的數據和工具，這些投資是否值得以及它們將產生什麼影響關於減輕與氣候變化有關的經濟損失。

So Craig, we're now in the process. We sat down with our teams. We've looked at what we think are the most interesting opportunities around this and are starting to work to develop products and also going out and talking with our customers beyond insurance to understand, what do you want and how can we provide it.

所以克雷格，我們現在正在處理中。我們和我們的團隊坐下來。我們已經研究了我們認為最有趣的機會，並開始努力開發產品，並走出去與我們的客戶交談，了解保險之外的內容，您想要什麼以及我們如何提供它。

And Craig, if I were to put just a few numbers around that related to RMS. For 2022 in particular, we are expecting revenue growth in the mid-single-digit percent range. And that would be in line with our transaction model, inclusive of some of the emerging synergies that Rob spoke about. And then on a full year basis from 2022 to 2023, excluding any impact of the 2022 deferred revenue haircut, we expect RMS revenue to grow in the high single-digit percent range.

還有克雷格，如果我要在與 RMS 相關的數字周圍加上幾個數字的話。特別是對於 2022 年，我們預計收入增長將在中個位數百分比範圍內。這將符合我們的交易模型，包括 Rob 談到的一些新興協同效應。然後在 2022 年至 2023 年的全年基礎上，排除 2022 年遞延收入削減的任何影響，我們預計 RMS 收入將在高個位數百分比範圍內增長。

That's helpful. And also want to ask you guys, the medium-term guidance, sorry to go back to this again. I think most people would be very happy if you guys could put up at least 10% revenue growth here. You're talking about margins in the low 50s here. You're basically there right now. Is it just being conservative on the margin when you guys talk about the margins that you really have to grow costs that much that margins aren't going to be moving up over the medium term here? And then also, Mark, my housekeeping question I want to ask, incentive comp in the quarter, what was that? And also transaction costs, you talked about in the press release but it wasn't quantified. Was that material?

這很有幫助。也想請教各位，中期指導，不好意思又回到這個了。如果你們能在這裡實現至少 10% 的收入增長，我想大多數人都會非常高興。您在這裡談論的是 50 年代低點的利潤率。你現在基本上在那裡。當你們談論利潤率時，您是否只是在利潤率上保守，因為您確實必須將成本提高到利潤率在中期不會上升的程度？然後，馬克，我想問的家務問題，本季度的激勵補償，那是什麼？還有交易成本，你在新聞稿中談到了，但沒有量化。那是材料嗎？

Craig, sure. Let me start with the first question. So we're not looking necessarily to provide more specific time lines for achieving our guidance within the next 5 years for each of the medium-term metrics that we provided this morning. However, some targets will likely be achieved intuitively earlier than others. For example, the outlook for the 2022 MIS adjusted operating margin is 62% and is within our medium-term guidance range. So there, you could think about our primary objective is really to maintain or modestly expand MIS' adjusted operating margin within that low 60s range while preferring to reinvest to drive growth, add value and scale over time. Similarly, as the relative proportion or size of the MA business grows relative to MIS, you'll begin to see that influence the timing of the emergence of the MCO margin into that low 50s percent range.

克雷格，當然。讓我從第一個問題開始。因此，對於我們今天上午提供的每個中期指標，我們不一定要提供更具體的時間表來在未來 5 年內實現我們的指導。然而，一些目標可能會比其他目標更早地實現。例如，2022 年 MIS 調整後營業利潤率的前景為 62%，在我們的中期指導範圍內。因此，您可以認為我們的主要目標實際上是在 60 年代的低位範圍內維持或適度擴大 MIS 的調整後營業利潤率，同時更願意再投資以推動增長、增加價值和擴大規模。同樣，隨著 MA 業務的相對比例或規模相對於 MIS 的增長，您將開始看到這會影響 MCO 利潤率出現在 50% 的低位範圍內的時間。

On your other question in terms of incentive compensation for the quarter, that was $117 million. And for 2022, we expect incentive compensation to be approximately $75 million per quarter or around $300 million for the full year. And just to note there, RMS would contribute roughly $7 million per quarter of that number.

關於本季度激勵薪酬的另一個問題，那是 1.17 億美元。到 2022 年，我們預計激勵薪酬約為每季度 7500 萬美元或全年約 3 億美元。需要注意的是，RMS 每季度將貢獻大約 700 萬美元。

And then I think your final question was on deal or transaction-related expenses. For the full year 2021, we had around $0.16 cost or around $40 million from M&A transaction and deal-related expenses, and that would include the cost of the RMS purchase price hedge loss.

然後我認為你的最後一個問題是關於交易或交易相關的費用。在 2021 年全年，我們的併購交易和交易相關費用約為 0.16 美元或約 4000 萬美元，其中包括 RMS 購買價格對沖損失的成本。

What was that number in the fourth quarter, Mark?

馬克，第四季度的數字是多少？

The full year was $40 million. Fourth quarter specifically was $5 million for M&A deal and transaction costs. It's not material.

全年為 4000 萬美元。第四季度特別是併購交易和交易成本為 500 萬美元。這不是物質。

We'll take our next question from Owen Lau with Oppenheimer.

我們將向 Owen Lau 和 Oppenheimer 提出我們的下一個問題。

Could you please talk about your investments in the SaaS solutions to banking customers? Are you going to provide more like the software solutions or you're migrating your like existing data solutions to the cloud or changing your contracts to be more recurring? Any more color would be helpful on the SaaS front.

您能否談談您對銀行客戶的 SaaS 解決方案的投資？您是要提供更多類似的軟件解決方案，還是要將類似的現有數據解決方案遷移到雲中，或者更改您的合同以使其更加頻繁？任何更多的顏色都會在 SaaS 方面有所幫助。

Owen, it's Rob. So one of the things that we're doing is, we're in the process of converting some of our customers from kind of legacy on-prem solutions that we provide to them to our new SaaS-based solutions. And so we talked a little bit about what's going on there in terms of that conversion. But that does a couple of things for us.

歐文，是羅伯。因此，我們正在做的一件事是，我們正在將我們的一些客戶從我們提供給他們的傳統本地解決方案轉換為我們新的基於 SaaS 的解決方案。因此，我們就轉換方面的情況進行了一些討論。但這為我們做了幾件事。

One, these SaaS solutions give us an opportunity to get a little more revenue uplift, but it also helps with our penetration and our ability to integrate our offerings. So if you kind of think about what we've got across kind of banking and ERS, we're building out an ecosystem that helps support banks around origination, risk, finance and planning. And so rather than kind of a collection of kind of legacy on-prem, what we're trying to do is build out a connected SaaS-based ecosystem that's going to allow us to connect this better and to be able to help our customers kind of work across their departments, and that's what we hear from them all the time. So that's really what's behind that strategy.

第一，這些 SaaS 解決方案讓我們有機會獲得更多的收入增長，但它也有助於我們的滲透和整合我們產品的能力。因此，如果你想一想我們在銀行業務和 ERS 方面所獲得的東西，我們正在建立一個生態系統，幫助銀行圍繞發起、風險、財務和規劃提供支持。因此，我們試圖做的是建立一個基於 SaaS 的互聯生態系統，這將允許我們更好地連接它並能夠幫助我們的客戶他們部門的工作，這就是我們一直從他們那裡聽到的。這就是該策略背後的真正原因。

Got it. And then another housekeeping question, I want to go back to the MA margin in 2022, 29%, up from 26% in 2021. Could you please help us think about the trajectory of this margin expansion in each quarter? Should we expect a gradual expansion each quarter and you can potentially exit 2022 with over 29% margin or do you expect the margin to be like stable at around 29% each quarter in 2022?

知道了。然後是另一個管家問題，我想回到 2022 年的 MA 利潤率，從 2021 年的 26% 上升到 29%。請您幫我們想想每個季度利潤率擴張的軌跡嗎？我們是否應該期望每個季度逐步擴張並且您可能會以超過 29% 的利潤率退出 2022 年，或者您是否預計 2022 年每個季度的利潤率會穩定在 29% 左右？

When I think about 2022, the MA adjusted operating margin guidance that we announced today of 29%, that includes 150 to 200 basis points of margin compression from recent acquisitions and movements in foreign exchange rates. And in addition to our multiyear initiatives in high-growth markets, we are targeting investments to bolster our best-in-class sales force and to focus on cross-selling opportunities across multiple product lines.

當我想到 2022 年時，MA 調整了我們今天宣布的 29% 的營業利潤率指導，其中包括近期收購和外匯匯率變動導致的 150 至 200 個基點的利潤率壓縮。除了我們在高增長市場的多年計劃外，我們的目標是投資以加強我們一流的銷售隊伍，並專注於跨多個產品線的交叉銷售機會。

For 2021, as I think about sort of run rate here, and I think here's the key point that you're driving at. Our full year guidance anticipates in the first quarter of 2022 expenses to be about $120 million to $140 million lower than the fourth quarter. And that's primarily due to the reset of our incentive compensation accruals as well as lower levels of organic investments given we accelerated some of that investment spending into the fourth quarter.

對於 2021 年，當我想到這裡的運行速度時，我認為這是您正在駕駛的關鍵點。我們的全年指導預計 2022 年第一季度的費用將比第四季度低約 1.2 億美元至 1.4 億美元。這主要是由於我們的激勵薪酬應計項目的重置以及有機投資水平的降低，因為我們將部分投資支出加速到第四季度。

And if I think about now just within 2022, annual merit increases, I would say, as well as talent acquisition and ongoing organic investments, they'll contribute to an expense ramp during the year of somewhere between $80 million to $100 million. So Q1 2022, it's $120 million to $140 million lower than Q4, which, of course, will support margin. And then think about during the year is $80 million to $100 million of expense ramp.

如果我現在考慮到 2022 年之內，我會說，年度績效增加，以及人才招聘和持續的有機投資，它們將有助於在 8000 萬美元到 1 億美元之間的一年中增加開支。因此，2022 年第一季度，它比第四季度低 1.2 億至 1.4 億美元，這當然會支持利潤率。然後想想這一年是 8000 萬美元到 1 億美元的支出增長。

And we'll go ahead and move on to our next question from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

我們將繼續討論來自巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik 的下一個問題。

Mark, I guess I was hoping you could just expand on that kind of seasonality topic and just talk about some of the other moving pieces in the first quarter and as we move to the rest of the year because I guess we just don't want to get carried away putting the full year guidance into 1Q run rate here.

馬克，我想我希望你能擴展這種季節性話題，然後談談第一季度的其他一些動態因素，因為我想我們只是不想在這裡將全年指導納入 1Q 運行率而得意忘形。

We considered historical issuance seasonality patterns as we developed our 2022 forecast. For MIS, we anticipate that transaction revenue will be stronger in the first half vis-a-vis the second half of the year as issuers take advantage of favorable market conditions and secure funding ahead of potential headwinds from interest rate and inflation uncertainties. And this is similar to the market dynamics that existed in 2020 and 2021 where 59% and I think 56% of total full year issuance was completed in the first half, respectively.

在製定 2022 年預測時，我們考慮了歷史發行季節性模式。對於 MIS，我們預計上半年的交易收入將比下半年更強，因為發行人利用有利的市場條件並在利率和通脹不確定性的潛在不利因素之前獲得資金。這類似於 2020 年和 2021 年存在的市場動態，其中 59% 和我認為全年總發行量的 56% 分別在上半年完成。

For MA, revenue is highly recurring. And it's expected to progressively increase over the year. And that's comparable to the actual 2020 and 2021 results which had just under 50% of total full year revenue reported in the first half.

對於 MA，收入是高度經常性的。預計這一年將逐步增加。這與 2020 年和 2021 年的實際結果相當，上半年報告的全年總收入略低於 50%。

In thinking about expenses, to my comments a moment ago, we expect an increase in spending from the first quarter to the fourth quarter in the range of $80 million to $100 million and as I mentioned a moment ago, driven in part by the timing of annual merit and promotion increases as well as ongoing organic investment activity. And then I would like to probably end here with, we are expecting the full year 2022 strategic investment spending of $150 million will be more weighted towards the second half of the year.

在考慮支出時，根據我剛才的評論，我們預計第一季度到第四季度的支出將增加 8000 萬美元到 1 億美元，正如我剛才提到的，部分原因是年度績效和晉升以及持續的有機投資活動。然後我想在這裡結束，我們預計 2022 年全年 1.5 億美元的戰略投資支出將更多地用於下半年。

Got it. All right. And Rob, maybe if I can just ask in terms of the M&A pipeline, outlook, appetite, just your thoughts here. Is RMS just a lot to digest before you do anything more significant?

知道了。好的。 Rob，也許我可以問一下併購渠道、前景、胃口，只是你的想法。在你做任何更重要的事情之前，RMS 是否需要消化很多東西？

Manav, we had a pretty busy 12 months. We are very focused, as I said, on realizing the benefit of those investments. And we're excited about the opportunity with RMS. There's a lot of work to do. And we need to make sure we're executing on that.

Manav，我們度過了非常忙碌的 12 個月。正如我所說，我們非常專注於實現這些投資的好處。我們對 RMS 的機會感到興奮。有很多工作要做。我們需要確保我們正在執行。

I would also note, Manav, we bought 3 small businesses in the KYC space just in the fourth quarter. And that was part of this investment that was going on in the fourth quarter and accelerating the integration so we could accelerate our speed to market with this workflow solution from a company called PassFort. So I guess what I would say Manav is, we're feeling pretty good because we have invested a lot in building out our capabilities in some areas that we think are very important. You know that we're always out there. We have a great corporate development team. But we feel like we've really enhanced our capabilities. We've added customers in new areas, and we're really focused on executing this year to realize the benefit of that.

我還要注意，Manav，我們僅在第四季度就在 KYC 領域購買了 3 家小企業。這是第四季度進行的這項投資的一部分，它加速了整合，因此我們可以利用一家名為 PassFort 的公司的工作流解決方案加快我們的上市速度。所以我想我會說 Manav 是，我們感覺很好，因為我們在一些我們認為非常重要的領域投入了大量資金來建立我們的能力。你知道我們總是在外面。我們擁有一支優秀的企業發展團隊。但我們覺得我們確實增強了我們的能力。我們在新領域增加了客戶，今年我們真的專注於執行以實現這一目標。

We'll go ahead and take our next question from Shlomo Rosenbaum from Stifel.

我們將繼續從 Stifel 的 Shlomo Rosenbaum 那裡回答我們的下一個問題。

Rob, maybe you could talk a little bit about, I'm going to go back to the medium-term guidance that seems to be the main topic of the call here. Just the top line growth, is the expectation to get at least 10%? And it seems like that's really an organic growth number it sounds like from the answers to all the various questions. That's definitely an improvement over what the company was pointing to historically in its trajectory.

Rob，也許你可以談談，我將回到中期指導，這似乎是這次電話會議的主要話題。只是頂線增長，是否期望至少獲得 10%？從各種問題的答案來看，這似乎真的是一個有機增長的數字。這絕對是該公司在其歷史軌跡上所指向的改進。

And maybe you could talk about like what's changed that gives you confidence that you'll be able to do that versus what you had done in the past or what you were driving towards in the past? Is it a matter of some of the acquisitions you've made and some of the products you've made, some of the sales force? Just maybe there's a little bit of a bridging you can do in order to kind of help us understand why the expectation is higher for organic growth at this point. And then I'll have a follow-up.

也許你可以談論發生了什麼變化，讓你相信你能夠做到這一點，而不是你過去所做的或者你過去正在努力的方向？是否與您進行的某些收購、您製作的某些產品、某些銷售人員有關？只是也許你可以做一些橋接，以幫助我們理解為什麼此時對有機增長的期望更高。然後我會跟進。

Yes. Thanks, Shlomo. So first of all, I think we see a path and have confidence that we can get there organically. But as Mark said, there may also be some M&A along the way, but we feel good about it. And the reason why, I'd say 2 things.

是的。謝謝，什洛莫。所以首先，我認為我們看到了一條道路，並且有信心我們可以有機地到達那裡。但正如馬克所說，一路上可能還會有一些併購，但我們對此感覺良好。至於原因，我想說兩件事。

One, we're in markets that are growing. I mean, if you look at the current addressable market that we talk about, a number are just, the underlying markets are growing nicely, right? So I think of that as, we live in an attractive neighborhood. And obviously, we, as a team and as a company, are trying to focus our investments on the most attractive parts of that broader addressable market.

一，我們所處的市場正在增長。我的意思是，如果你看看我們談論的當前潛在市場，一些數字只是，基礎市場增長良好，對吧？所以我認為，我們生活在一個有吸引力的社區。顯然，作為一個團隊和一家公司，我們正試圖將我們的投資集中在更廣泛的潛在市場中最具吸引力的部分。

But second, we've been investing heavily, that's been a theme on this call, to build out the capabilities. And it's been through some of the acquisitions, where we think now we've got world-class capabilities around climate at scale. We have got a, what we believe is a very strong platform for KYC and financial crime compliance. And it's no longer just our data, but now we have a workflow platform that we're integrating into. And that's really, that's an important need for our customers in the market. We're investing in our commercial real estate business. We invested specifically in the fourth quarter to accelerate some of our product launches that will give us some growth into 2022 and beyond. So I guess we feel good about the growth prospects of the markets we're serving, and we feel good about the capabilities that we have been building and acquiring and integrating to be able to capitalize on those growth opportunities.

但其次，我們一直在大力投資，這是本次電話會議的主題，以建立能力。通過一些收購，我們認為現在我們在氣候方面擁有世界一流的能力。我們有一個，我們認為這是一個非常強大的 KYC 和金融犯罪合規平台。它不再只是我們的數據，現在我們有了一個正在集成的工作流平台。這確實是我們市場上客戶的重要需求。我們正在投資我們的商業房地產業務。我們在第四季度專門投資以加速我們的一些產品發布，這將使我們在 2022 年及以後獲得一些增長。所以我想我們對我們所服務的市場的增長前景感覺良好，我們對我們一直在建立、獲得和整合以利用這些增長機會的能力感覺良好。

Okay. Great. And then just kind of piggybacking off of a question that Manav asked. Could you say that the busy 2021 M&A engagements that you had, would you consider that kind of an anomaly or something that the company is positioned to, hey, we're positioned to repeat something like that. That might become more frequent. I mean, the comment you made seemed like you want to digest some of the big bites that you made. But I just wanted to ask you, do you feel like you're positioned differently than you were in the past in terms of doing a larger kind of M&A program kind of that would enhance the already improved organic revenue growth that you've laid out?

好的。偉大的。然後只是對 Manav 提出的一個問題進行了補充。您能否說您在 2021 年繁忙的併購活動中，您是否會考慮這種異常情況或公司定位的事情，嘿，我們定位於重複類似的事情。這可能會變得更加頻繁。我的意思是，你發表的評論似乎是你想消化你所做的一些大事。但我只是想問你，你是否覺得你的定位與過去有所不同，因為你在進行更大規模的併購計劃時會增強你已經制定的已經改善的有機收入增長?

I guess I would say 2 things. One, we knew where we wanted to invest based on the strategy and the market opportunity and where we thought we have a real right to win in the market. And we have what we call internally these business blueprints that we use to figure out, what do we need to do both from a organic investment standpoint but also from an acquisition standpoint. And so we felt like it was important to build out those capabilities, to accelerate the build-out of those capabilities and the acquisition of those capabilities because we feel that speed to market in some of these markets that we serve is really important. You've heard me talk about that.

我想我會說兩件事。第一，根據戰略和市場機會，我們知道我們想在哪裡投資，以及我們認為我們有真正的贏得市場的權利。我們有我們內部所說的這些業務藍圖，我們用這些藍圖來確定從有機投資的角度和收購的角度我們需要做什麼。所以我們覺得建立這些能力很重要，加速這些能力的建立和這些能力的獲得，因為我們認為在我們服務的一些市場中的上市速度真的很重要。你聽我談過這個。

KYC, that market is growing. And you see we're growing that, depending on the time period, mid-20s or more. What that means is, you've got a lot of customers who are adopting new solutions and the retention rates are high. And so we want to be able to get those customers onto our platforms.

KYC，這個市場正在增長。你會看到我們正在增長，這取決於時間段，20 多歲或更多。這意味著，您有很多正在採用新解決方案的客戶，並且保留率很高。所以我們希望能夠讓這些客戶進入我們的平台。

I think the same is going to be true with climate. As we think about the need, as Craig asked about, isn't there a great opportunity beyond insurance? Yes. There is. But we've got to have the capabilities to be able to meet that need quickly.

我認為氣候也是如此。正如克雷格所問的那樣，當我們考慮需求時，除了保險之外，難道沒有一個很好的機會嗎？是的。有。但我們必須有能力快速滿足這一需求。

So I think there was an element of wanting to really enhance our speed to market. And it was an active year. There was a lot out there. We know that there were a lot of opportunities that were also out in the market. So I don't know if it's an anomaly. We don't have a quota. We have plans on how we want to drive growth, and we're going to continue to execute on those plans.

所以我認為有一個因素是想要真正提高我們的上市速度。這是一個活躍的一年。那裡有很多東西。我們知道市場上也有很多機會。所以不知道是不是異常。我們沒有配額。我們有關於如何推動增長的計劃，我們將繼續執行這些計劃。

We'll move on to our next question from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

我們將繼續討論 George Tong 與高盛的下一個問題。

Historically, pricing has contributed 3% to 4% to overall revenue growth. How do you expect pricing trends to evolve compared to historical levels given rising inflation? And what kind of increases are you seeing in labor costs especially in the more labor-intensive MIS segment?

從歷史上看，定價對整體收入增長的貢獻率為 3% 至 4%。鑑於通脹上升，您預計價格趨勢與歷史水平相比將如何演變？您認為勞動力成本有何增長，尤其是在勞動密集型 MIS 領域？

George, it's Rob. So I think our view is that we probably have a consistent pricing opportunity. I guess you might be able to argue, well, isn't there more upside with inflation? I think we just have a long-term view on pricing in the rating agency and MA, I mean, all across the firm. We want to be prudent and thoughtful about price. Price is obviously important to our customers as well.

喬治，是羅伯。所以我認為我們的觀點是我們可能有一個一致的定價機會。我想你可能會爭辯說，通貨膨脹沒有更多的好處嗎？我認為我們只是對評級機構和 MA 的定價有長遠的看法，我的意思是，整個公司。我們希望對價格保持謹慎和周到。價格顯然對我們的客戶也很重要。

So what it's really about, and we get questions about this in the rating agency, it's about making sure that we are reinforcing the value proposition that we deliver to our customers. And I think an important part of that for MIS going forward is going to be around sustainable finance. I mean, we hear from our customers all the time, I've got a sustainable finance program and I want Moody's to be able to help me with my credit rating, my second-party opinion, various aspects of that. We're also integrating all that into our research for the investors and our issuers' fixed income issuance. So that's how we think about supporting that value proposition. And I think, again, we're taking a long-term view.

因此，它的真正含義是什麼，我們在評級機構中對此提出了疑問，它是關於確保我們正在加強我們向客戶提供的價值主張。我認為 MIS 未來的一個重要部分將圍繞可持續金融展開。我的意思是，我們一直收到客戶的來信，我有一個可持續的金融計劃，我希望穆迪能夠幫助我評估我的信用評級、我的第二方意見以及這方面的各個方面。我們還將所有這些整合到我們對投資者和發行人的固定收益發行的研究中。這就是我們考慮支持該價值主張的方式。而且我認為，我們再次從長遠來看。

In terms of labor costs, Mark touched on it. Look, we're investing in our people. And I'm sure you've heard this on a number of calls of the companies that you cover, we're no different. We're investing to make sure that our compensation increases are competitive with the market, but also making sure that we are retaining the key talent that we need to drive the company forward. And you can imagine, there are certain types of skills that are in high demand and we're very focused on making sure that we can attract and retain that kind of talent.

在人工成本方面，馬克談到了它。看，我們正在投資於我們的員工。而且我敢肯定，您已經在您所報導的公司的許多電話中聽到了這一點，我們也不例外。我們正在投資以確保我們的薪酬增長在市場上具有競爭力，同時也確保我們保留了推動公司發展所需的關鍵人才。您可以想像，某些類型的技能需求量很大，我們非常專注於確保我們能夠吸引和留住這類人才。

Got it. That's helpful. You've made a lot of investments in MA in the KYC market recently. If you look forward, what areas do you want to focus on in the MA segment from an M&A perspective?

知道了。這很有幫助。您最近在 KYC 市場對 MA 進行了大量投資。如果您向前看，從併購的角度來看，您希望在 MA 領域關注哪些領域？

Across MA. So George, you're right, we have made several investments in KYC. It's a pretty fragmented market. We're building out our capabilities. We acquired some capabilities and we're integrating those. There may be other opportunities. I mean, I think one thing that you hear from us as a management team is, we're trying to invest in high-growth opportunities where we think we're well positioned to win in the market. KYC is one of those.

橫跨馬。所以喬治，你是對的，我們已經對 KYC 進行了幾次投資。這是一個相當分散的市場。我們正在建設我們的能力。我們獲得了一些能力，並且正在整合這些能力。可能還有其他機會。我的意思是，我認為作為一個管理團隊，你從我們那裡聽到的一件事是，我們正在努力投資於我們認為我們有能力在市場上獲勝的高增長機會。 KYC 就是其中之一。

So yes, we have made some investments, but I think you'll see us continue to make investments, organic, it may be inorganic if it's on our business blueprint. And so we've been pretty clear about where we want to continue to build scale across the business, where we see very strong growth. It's KYC. It's insurance and banking. It's commercial real estate and then ESG and climate.

所以是的，我們已經進行了一些投資，但我想你會看到我們繼續進行有機投資，如果它在我們的業務藍圖上可能是無機的。因此，我們非常清楚我們希望在哪裡繼續擴大業務規模，我們看到了非常強勁的增長。這是KYC。是保險和銀行。它是商業房地產，然後是 ESG 和氣候。

And we'll go ahead and take our last question from Christian Bolu with Autonomous Research.

我們將繼續回答來自自治研究的 Christian Bolu 的最後一個問題。

Christian, this may be one of those, you're on mute moments from the last 2 years of Zoom.

克里斯蒂安，這可能是其中之一，你在 Zoom 過去 2 年的沉默時刻。

I'm not beating a dead horse here. But on the 2022 outlook, if I look at sort of Slide 22, I see lower issuance. I see what should be a negative mix shift given high yield and structured typically have better revenue yields and those are going down, but you seem very confident in your revenue growth outlook for '22. Just curious, what's the delta? Is there a way to think about what the delta is? If you have lower issuance and lower or that negative mix shift, what's the delta to actually revenue growth? Is it pricing? Is it new folks coming on board? I'll be curious how you think about that.

我不是在這裡打死馬。但就 2022 年的前景而言，如果我看一下幻燈片 22，我會看到發行量較低。我認為鑑於高收益和結構化通常具有更好的收入收益率並且這些收益率正在下降，我認為應該是負面的組合轉變，但您似乎對 22 年的收入增長前景非常有信心。只是好奇，三角洲是什麼？有沒有辦法考慮三角洲是什麼？如果您的發行量較低並且較低或負混合轉變，那麼實際收入增長的增量是多少？是定價嗎？是新人加入嗎？我很好奇你是怎麼想的。

Christian, the outlook for 2022 includes both an expectation of a similar, though not as favorable, infrequent issuer mix going into certainly the first half of the year. You could typically think of us as making slightly more on the high yield and leveraged loans just on a per dollar basis. But equally important, leveraged loans serve as a funnel for structured finance CLO creation, which provides further opportunities for the upside.

Christian，2022 年的前景包括對類似但不那麼有利的、罕見的發行人組合的預期，肯定會進入今年上半年。您通常可以認為我們在高收益和槓桿貸款上以每美元計算的收益略高。但同樣重要的是，槓桿貸款可以作為創建結構化融資 CLO 的渠道，從而提供進一步的上行機會。

Yes. And Christian, we missed part of your question, but I think we get the question. And if you think about where we are from a issuance outlook perspective and then kind of where we get to from a revenue growth perspective, I'm going to go back to those building blocks. So let's start with somewhere between 1/3 to 40%, depending on transaction revenue, is recurring revenue. And that recurring revenue is growing. And that's supported by the north of 1,100 first-time issuers that came into the portfolio last year. Then we've got pricing. And there is an element of mix. But if you kind of look at where we are from a issuance outlook to a revenue growth outlook, that's probably a little more modest spread actually than maybe in some prior years or in some prior periods. And that probably reflects a little bit of what you're talking about in terms of the mix.

是的。克里斯蒂安，我們錯過了你的部分問題，但我想我們明白了。如果您從發行前景的角度考慮我們的位置，然後從收入增長的角度考慮我們的位置，我將回到那些構建模塊。因此，讓我們從 1/3 到 40% 之間的某個地方開始，這取決於交易收入，是經常性收入。而且經常性收入正在增長。這得到了去年進入投資組合的 1,100 家首次發行人的支持。然後我們有定價。並且有一個混合元素。但如果你看看我們從發行前景到收入增長前景的位置，實際上這可能比前幾年或前一些時期的價差要小一些。這可能反映了你在混合方面所談論的一點點。

Okay. Maybe switching gears to MA here. If I look at Slide 11 and 13, you guys tend to talk about the MA business in terms of the end markets, like what's driving growth from an end market perspective, but it's not the way you tend to disclose the data. So just curious, are there any plans here to maybe give us more data that helps understand end market growth just to better understand sort of what's driving growth and a potentially better model sort of long term how this business evolves?

好的。也許在這里切換到 MA。如果我看一下幻燈片 11 和 13，你們傾向於從終端市場的角度談論 MA 業務，比如從終端市場的角度來看是什麼推動了增長，但這不是你們披露數據的方式。所以只是好奇，這裡有沒有計劃給我們更多的數據來幫助我們了解終端市場的增長，以便更好地了解推動增長的因素以及長期潛在的更好的業務發展模型？

Christian, I'll take this maybe from a slightly different perspective. So in addition to the medium-term targets that we announced today, in 2022, we intend to refresh the line of business reporting breakout for MA revenue to address some of the investor feedback that we've heard and the comments that you've just made around the need for greater insight into the business' performance. This is going to be a topic we'll plan to cover as part of Investor Day materials.

克里斯蒂安，我可能會從一個稍微不同的角度來看待這個問題。因此，除了我們今天宣布的 2022 年中期目標外，我們還打算更新 MA 收入的業務報告突破，以解決我們聽到的一些投資者反饋和您剛剛發表的評論圍繞需要更深入地了解業務績效而提出。這將是我們計劃在投資者日材料中涵蓋的主題。

But at a high level, the lines of business we're considering adopting for MA include data and information, research and insights and a decision solution subsegment. And you could think about data and information as being comprised of the vast and unmatched data sets that we have on economies, companies, commercial properties and financial securities. You could think about research and insights as providing customers with market-leading modeling and risk scoring as well as expert insights and commentary. And then decision solutions then is combining those components from our data and information and research and insights lines of business for the purpose of integrating those capabilities through software and workflow solutions. So again, a topic we plan to cover at Investor Day once we finalize the approach, but certainly something we're thinking about.

但在高層次上，我們正在考慮為 MA 採用的業務範圍包括數據和信息、研究和洞察力以及決策解決方案子部分。您可以將數據和信息視為由我們擁有的關於經濟、公司、商業地產和金融證券的龐大且無與倫比的數據集組成。您可以將研究和見解視為為客戶提供市場領先的建模和風險評分以及專家見解和評論。然後決策解決方案將我們的數據和信息以及研究和洞察業務線中的這些組件結合起來，以便通過軟件和工作流解決方案集成這些功能。因此，一旦我們最終確定方法，我們計劃在投資者日涵蓋的主題，但肯定是我們正在考慮的問題。

Yes. And Christian, one other thing to add, I think we'll be able to give you some insights into how we think about the growth in those underlying markets that we serve at Investor Day. So I think that's going to guarantee that you're going to be attending.

是的。克里斯蒂安，還有一件事要補充，我認為我們將能夠讓您了解我們如何看待我們在投資者日服務的那些基礎市場的增長。所以我認為這將保證你會參加。

Yes. And if I can throw my two cents in here. I appreciate where you talked about disclosing it. It would also be helpful just to get consistent look at the end markets as well because that's how you talk about addressable markets, that's how you talk about growth. And it just feels like that's a, it's an easier way, at least for us, to think about the potential of the business. What's KYC growing, what's the revenue today, how it's growing, et cetera. So just my two cents in terms of as you think about disclosures.

是的。如果我能把我的兩分錢扔在這裡。我很欣賞你談到披露它的地方。對終端市場進行一致的觀察也會有所幫助，因為這就是您談論目標市場的方式，這就是您談論增長的方式。只是感覺這是一種更簡單的方式，至少對我們來說，是考慮業務潛力的一種方式。 KYC 在增長什麼，今天的收入是多少，它是如何增長的，等等。因此，就您對披露的看法而言，這只是我的兩分錢。

Yes. That's great feedback, Christian.

是的。這是很好的反饋，克里斯蒂安。

And with that, that does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn to Rob Fauber for additional or closing remarks.

這樣，我們的問答環節就結束了。我現在想請 Rob Fauber 補充或結束髮言。

Well, thank you, everybody, for joining today's call, and we look forward to speaking with you at Investor Day on March 10. And with that, I think we'll bring the call to a close.

好吧，謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議，我們期待在 3 月 10 日的投資者日與您交談。我想我們將結束電話會議。

And this concludes Moody's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Call. As a reminder, immediately following this call, the company will post the MIS revenue breakdown under the Investor Resources section of the Moody's IR homepage. Additionally, a replay of this call will be available after 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Moody's IR website. Thank you.

穆迪 2021 年第四季度和全年財報電話會議到此結束。提醒一下，在本次電話會議之後，該公司將在穆迪投資者關係主頁的“投資者資源”部分下發布 MIS 收入明細。此外，將在下午 3:30 之後重播本次通話。穆迪投資者關係網站上的東部時間。謝謝你。