萬豪國際 (MAR) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Marriott International's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Arne Sorenson. Thank you. And please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2019年第四季財報電話會議。（操作人員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。（操作員指示）現在，我謹將會議交給今天的演講嘉賓，阿恩·索倫森。謝謝。請繼續。

Welcome to our fourth quarter 2019 earnings conference call. Joining me today ar3e Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Jackie Burka McConagha, our senior -- new Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Vice President, Investor Relations.

歡迎參加我們2019年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；新任資深副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Jackie Burka McConagha；以及副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Betsy Dahm。

Let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued yesterday, along with our comments today, are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

我想提醒大家，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們昨天發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們今天的評論僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

In our discussion today, we will talk about 2019 results, excluding merger-related costs and reimbursed revenues and related expenses. GAAP results appear on pages A-1 and A-2 of the earnings release, but our remarks today will largely refer to the adjusted results that appear on the non-GAAP reconciliation pages. Of course, you can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks on our investor relations website.

在今天的討論中，我們將討論 2019 年的業績，不包括與合併相關的成本、已報銷的收入和相關費用。GAAP 結果出現在盈利報告的 A-1 和 A-2 頁，但我們今天的演講將主要指非 GAAP 調整頁上顯示的調整後結果。當然，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及我們在聲明中提到的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

As we begin our call this morning, it is obvious that the question you are most interested in is the impact of the coronavirus or COVID-19 on our business around the world. In the 6 weeks or so that we have been intensely watching this crisis, we have learned much, but there's still a great deal we do not know. In our press release and in our comments this morning, we will give you some yardsticks to help measure what the impact to our P&L might be. While this is still guess work to some extent, we know one thing with confidence. This will pass. And when it does, the impact to our business will quickly fade.

今天早上我們開始通話時，很明顯，大家最關心的問題是冠狀病毒或 COVID-19 對我們全球業務的影響。在過去六週左右的時間裡，我們密切關注著這場危機，從中我們學到了很多，但仍有許多事情我們不知道。在我們的新聞稿和今天早上的評論中，我們將提供一些衡量標準，以幫助衡量這對我們的損益表可能產生的影響。雖然這在某種程度上仍是猜測，但我們有一點可以肯定。這一切都會過去的。即便這種情況發生，對我們業務的影響也會迅速消失。

So let's talk about our results. We are pleased with our solid performance in 2019, finishing the year on a high note. In the fourth quarter, we continued to add to our RevPAR index gains, increased hotel profit margins, recycled a meaningful amount of capital and signed a significant number of new hotel deals. We grew our system to more than 7,300 properties and expanded our global rooms pipeline to a record of more than 0.5 million rooms, nearly 1.4 million rooms in 134 countries and territories. We offer unrivaled choices for our customers.

那我們來談談我們的結果吧。我們對2019年的穩健表現感到滿意，並以優異的成績結束了這一年。第四季度，我們繼續提高每間可供出租客房收入指數，提高酒店利潤率，回收了大量資金，並簽署了大量新的酒店協議。我們的系統已擴展至超過 7,300 家酒店，並將全球客房儲備擴展至創紀錄的超過 50 萬間客房，在 134 個國家和地區擁有近 140 萬間客房。我們為客戶提供無與倫比的選擇。

In 2019, our development team signed 815 hotel agreements for a record 136,000 rooms with each of our international regions setting records in organic signings. Over 220,000 of the rooms in our 515,000-room pipeline are already under construction. Using 2019's pace of openings, our under-construction pipeline represents nearly 3 years of gross rooms growth, while our total pipeline represents well over 6 years of implied rooms growth. At year-end, 7% of global industry rooms flew one of our flags, while our share of STR's worldwide under-construction pipeline led the industry at 19%.

2019 年，我們的開發團隊簽署了 815 份飯店協議，共 136,000 間客房，創下歷史新高，我們各個國際區域的自然簽約量也均創下紀錄。在我們規劃的 515,000 間客房中，超過 220,000 間客房已經在建設中。以 2019 年的開業速度，我們在建項目相當於近 3 年的客房增長量，而我們的總項目儲備則相當於超過 6 年的客房增長量。截至年底，全球行業客房中有 7% 掛著我們的旗幟，而我們在 STR 全球在建項目中的份額為 19%，領先於行業。

To be sure, our signings were impressive, but we are not just focused on adding units. We are focused on adding valuable hotels that drive higher fees per room and enhance our brands. Luxury and upper upscale rooms comprise over half of our distribution globally, which is one reason our fees per room lead the industry. During 2019, we expanded this lead by signing a record 45,000 rooms in these tiers. At year-end, the number of our global luxury and upper upscale rooms under construction totaled more than the next 3 competitors combined, according to STR.

誠然，我們的簽約成果令人印象深刻，但我們並不僅僅專注於增加單元數量。我們專注於增加能夠提高每間客房收費並提升我們品牌價值的優質飯店。豪華和高檔客房占我們全球分銷的一半以上，這也是我們每間客房收費在業界領先的原因之一。2019 年，我們透過在這些級別中簽約創​​紀錄的 45,000 間客房，進一步擴大了這一領先優勢。根據 STR 數據顯示，截至年底，我們全球正在建造的豪華和高檔客房總數超過了接下來 3 個競爭對手的總和。

Other milestone achievements in 2019 included multiple launches from our new loyalty program, Marriott Bonvoy; to our new home rental program, Homes & Villas by Marriott International; to our all-inclusive platform, which was augmented by our recent acquisition of the Elegant Hotels Group in Barbados. These expanded offerings and program enhancements provide meaningful value to our owners and guests, help to drive loyalty engagement and provide additional ways for members to earn and redeem points.

2019 年的其他里程碑式成就包括推出多項新計劃，例如我們的新忠誠計劃 Marriott Bonvoy；我們的新房屋租賃計劃 Homes & Villas by Marriott International；以及我們的全包式平台，該平台因我們最近收購巴貝多 Elegant Hotels Group 而得到加強。這些擴展的產品和服務以及項目改進為我們的業主和賓客帶來了切實的價值，有助於提高會員忠誠度，並為會員賺取和兌換積分提供了更多途徑。

Homes & Villas provides the opportunity for our guests to stay at 7,500 premium and luxury rental homes in 200 locations around the world. In the all-inclusive segment, our guests can currently choose from 10 resorts with 7 more projects in the pipeline.

Homes & Villas 為我們的房客提供入住全球 200 個地點的 7,500 套優質豪華出租房屋的機會。在全包式度假領域，我們的客人目前可以從 10 個度假村中進行選擇，另有 7 個項目正在籌建中。

In the fourth quarter, we launched our Eat Around Town offering, where Marriott Bonvoy members can earn points by dining at more than 11,000 restaurants in the U.S. We also introduced peak, off-peak redemption awards, providing members with better value when they redeem points on lower demand nights. In addition to benefiting guests, the new award schedule helps owners fill more rooms by shifting demand from stronger periods to slower ones. Finally, we are piloting a program in select international markets that lets local members earn and redeem points dining at our hotel restaurants. The response from our members has been extremely positive.

第四季度，我們推出了「城中美食」活動，萬豪旅享家會員可以透過在美國超過 11,000 家餐廳用餐賺取積分。我們也推出了高峰期和非高峰期兌換獎勵，讓會員在需求較低的夜晚兌換積分時獲得更高的價值。除了讓客人受益外，新的獎勵計劃還能幫助業主將需求從旺季轉移到淡季，從而提高客房入住率。最後，我們正在部分國際市場試行一項計劃，讓當地會員在我們的飯店餐廳用餐即可賺取和兌換積分。會員們的反應非常正面。

Collectively, these efforts, coupled with the strength of our brands and our broad distribution, drove Marriott Bonvoy membership to over 141 million members at the end of January. This powerful platform remains a key competitive advantage. And in 2019, paid room revenues from loyalty members increased 11%. Redemptions were also meaningfully higher as our Bonvoy travelers enjoyed the wide range of choices offered by the program.

綜合這些努力，再加上我們強大的品牌實力和廣泛的分銷管道，使得萬豪旅享家會員人數在 1 月底超過 1.41 億。這個強大的平台仍然是一項關鍵的競爭優勢。2019 年，忠誠會員的付費客房收入成長了 11%。由於萬豪旅享家旅客享受了該計劃提供的各種選擇，兌換次數也顯著增加。

Member share of occupied rooms topped 52% worldwide in 2019, up 250 basis points versus 2018 and reached 58% in North America, up 320 basis points year-over-year. We also continue to see solid growth from our co-branded credit cards with sign-ups 12% higher year-over-year.

2019 年，全球會員入住率超過 52%，較 2018 年成長 250 個基點；北美地區會員入住率達 58%，較去年成長 320 個基點。我們的聯名信用卡業務也持續保持穩健成長，註冊用戶數量較去年同期成長 12%。

With an improved yield management approach and an increase in Bonvoy members, more of our guests booked direct in 2019. Worldwide direct bookings, including group sales, rooms booked by our reservation centers and bookings made on our digital platforms represented approximately 3/4 of total room nights booked during the year. Direct digital bookings alone represented 1/3 of room nights.

憑藉改進的收益管理方法和 Bonvoy 會員數量的增加，2019 年有更多客人直接預訂。全球直接預訂（包括團體銷售、透過我們的預訂中心預訂的房間以及透過我們的數位平台進行的預訂）約佔全年預訂總房間夜數的 3/4。僅直接透過網路預訂就佔客房總數的 1/3。

Mobile bookings, a component of direct digital bookings, were up a strong 64% over the year. At the same time, the percentage of nights booked through OTAs declined year-over-year. Guests' intent to recommend and staff service scores increased during 2019, thanks to the efforts of our outstanding associates.

行動端預訂（直接數位預訂的一部分）年增了 64%。同時，透過線上旅行社預訂的晚數百分比較去年同期下降。2019 年，由於我們優秀員工的努力，顧客的推薦意願和員工服務評分均有所提升。

We also saw impressive revenue share gains across our portfolio. Overall, our global RevPAR index accelerated throughout the year, rising 240 basis points in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2019, our global RevPAR index improved an impressive 200 basis points. Each of our continents saw growth in index with meaningful gains from both legacy Marriott and legacy Starwood portfolios globally.

我們也看到旗下所有產品組合的營收份額均實現了顯著成長。整體而言，我們的全球每間可供出租客房收入指數全年加速成長，第四季上升了 240 個基點。2019 年全年，我們的全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 指數實現了令人矚目的 200 個基點的成長。我們各大洲的指數均有所增長，全球範圍內，萬豪酒店集團和喜達屋酒店集團的傳統投資組合均獲得了顯著收益。

It is worth mentioning that we are particularly pleased with the progress we are making with the Sheraton brand. Over the last 3 years, approximately 50% of Sheraton hotels worldwide have undergone, are undergoing or have committed to undergo renovation. We sold the Sheraton Phoenix Downtown last month after purchasing it just 18 months earlier, and we signed a valuable long-term management agreement. We are confident that the Sheraton Phoenix Downtown will serve as a showcase to encourage renovations at additional Sheraton hotels.

值得一提的是，我們對喜來登品牌的進展感到特別滿意。在過去三年中，全球約有 50% 的喜來登酒店已經、正在或承諾進行翻修。我們上個月出售了鳳凰城中心喜來登酒店，而我們僅在 18 個月前才將其購入，並且我們簽署了一份非常有價值的長期管理協議。我們相信，鳳凰城中心喜來登酒店將成為鼓勵其他喜來登酒店進行翻新的典範。

Before we discuss our 2020 outlook, let me talk a bit more about the coronavirus situation. Clearly, this is a major humanitarian crisis, and our thoughts are with the many people impacted. As the virus emerged in Wuhan earlier this year, our teams assisted guests and provided support for associates whose lives have been significantly disrupted. I couldn't be prouder of our associates in the Asia Pacific region who have worked tirelessly.

在討論2020年展望之前，讓我再多談談新冠病毒疫情。顯然，這是一場重大的人道危機，我們與許多受影響的人們同在。今年早些時候，當病毒在武漢出現時，我們的團隊為客人提供幫助，並為生活受到嚴重影響的同事提供支持。我為我們亞太地區的同事們感到無比自豪，他們一直孜孜不倦地工作。

We continue to waive cancellation fees for hotel stays through March 15 for guests with reservations at our hotels in Greater China and for guests from Greater China with reservations at Marriott destinations globally. We began to see the impact of the coronavirus on our business in mid-January with occupancy declines gradually spreading from Wuhan to other markets in the Asia Pacific region. In February, RevPAR at our hotels in Greater China declined almost 90% versus the same period last year. At the end of 2019, we had 375 properties with roughly 122,000 rooms across Greater China, representing 9% of our total global rooms. Around 90 of these properties are currently closed.

對於在大中華區預訂我們酒店的客人，以及在萬豪全球旗下酒店預訂的來自大中華區的客人，我們將繼續免除 3 月 15 日之前的酒店住宿取消手續費。1月中旬，我們開始感受到冠狀病毒對我們業務的影響，入住率下降的情況逐漸從武漢蔓延到亞太地區的其他市場。今年2月，我們在大中華區的飯店的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）與去年同期相比下降了近90%。截至 2019 年底，我們在大中華區擁有 375 家飯店，約 122,000 間客房，占我們全球客房總數的 9%。目前這些房產中約有 90 處已關閉。

In the Asia Pacific region, outside Greater China, what we call APAC, February RevPAR declined roughly 25% year-over-year. For APAC, we had 412 properties with 100,000 rooms at year-end 2019, representing 7% of our total worldwide rooms. February RevPAR in the Asia Pacific region overall has been running down around 50% compared to February of last year.

在除大中華區以外的亞太地區（我們稱之為亞太地區），2 月份的每間可供出租客房收入較去年同期下降了約 25%。截至 2019 年底，我們在亞太地區擁有 412 間飯店，共 10 萬間客房，占我們全球客房總數的 7%。與去年2月相比，亞太地區2月的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）整體下降了約50%。

Outbound travelers from China in 2019 made up less than 1% of room nights in our system outside of Asia Pacific, and around 0.5% of room nights in North America. To date, apart from a handful of citywide event cancellations, we have not seen a significant impact on overall demand outside of the Asia Pacific region, though the situation, obviously, remains fluid.

2019 年，中國出境旅客在我們亞太地區以外的飯店客房夜數佔比不到 1%，在北美地區則佔比約為 0.5%。到目前為止，除了少數城市範圍內的活動取消外，我們尚未看到亞太地區以外的整體需求受到重大影響，儘管情況顯然仍在不斷變化。

Given the uncertainty surrounding the length and severity of the coronavirus situation, we cannot fully estimate the financial impact to our business at this time. So in our press release and our remarks today, we are providing a base case first quarter and full year 2020 outlook that do not reflect any impact from the outbreak. This base case reflects the 2020 outlook our teams had prepared as part of the company's budget process based on the pre-coronavirus environment, including hotel-by-hotel forecasts, group booking trends and expected supply growth. Leeny will frame how first quarter results could be impacted by the coronavirus based on current trends.

鑑於冠狀​​病毒疫情持續時間和嚴重程度尚不明朗，我們目前無法完全估計其對我們業務的財務影響。因此，在我們的新聞稿和今天的演講中，我們提供了 2020 年第一季和全年的基本展望，並未反映疫情的任何影響。這項基準情況反映了我們的團隊在公司預算編制過程中，根據冠狀病毒爆發前的環境所準備的 2020 年展望，包括逐家酒店的預測、團體預訂趨勢和預期的供應增長。Leeny 將根據當前趨勢，闡述新冠病毒可能對第一季業績產生的影響。

Now let's start with our base case RevPAR outlook for 2020 not impacted by coronavirus. On a global constant currency basis, we estimate global system-wide RevPAR in 2020 will increase 1% to 2% in the first quarter and will be flat to up 2% for the full year. In North America, recent estimates for U.S. GDP growth point to a modestly slower pace of economic growth in 2020 with lodging demand forecasted to increase around 2%. Industry supply growth is expected to also remain around 2% with upscale supply expected to grow 4%. We expect leisure demand will continue to outpace business transient demand as there has yet to be a step-up in business investment levels. Overall, this implies a continuation of low RevPAR growth in the U.S.

現在讓我們從未受新冠病毒影響的 2020 年基本情境 RevPAR 展望開始。以全球固定匯率計算，我們估計 2020 年全球系統整體每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將在 2020 年第一季度增長 1% 至 2%，全年將保持平穩或增長 2%。在北美，近期對美國 GDP 成長的估計表明，2020 年經濟成長速度將略有放緩，住宿需求預計將成長約 2%。預計行業供應成長也將保持在 2% 左右，而高端供應預計將成長 4%。我們預期休閒需求將持續超過商務旅遊需求，因為商務投資水準尚未顯著提升。總體而言，這意味著美國每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的成長將持續保持在低檔。

Our group sales organization in North America had a great fourth quarter in 2019 with bookings for all future periods up 5.5%. With this strength, our group revenue on the books in North America for 2020 is up at a mid-single-digit rate. We have completed roughly 80% of our corporate rate negotiations. And while we can't predict corporate volumes, completed negotiated room rates are running up 1% to 2% for comparable accounts.

2019 年第四季度，我們在北美的集團銷售組織取得了巨大成功，未來所有時期的預訂量增加了 5.5%。憑藉這一優勢，我們集團2020年在北美的帳面收入實現了中等個位數的成長。我們已完成約 80% 的企業費率談判。雖然我們無法預測企業入住量，但已完成的協商房價在類似客戶中上漲了 1% 到 2%。

Our first quarter is off to a strong start with the benefit of easy comps in markets like Washington, D.C. and Hawaii as well as continuing RevPAR index gains. We expect base case North America RevPAR will increase 1% to 2% for the first quarter. For the full year, we expect it to be around the midpoint of the global range of flat to up 2%.

由於華盛頓特區和夏威夷等市場的同店銷售額較低，以及每間可供出租客房收入指數持續成長，我們第一季開局強勁。我們預計第一季北美地區每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將基本成長1%至2%。我們預計全年經濟成長將處於全球持平或上漲 2% 區間的中點附近。

For the Asia Pacific region, we assume base case RevPAR growth 2% to 4% for 2020 with weak results in Hong Kong expected to continue for the first half of the year before lapping easier comps in the back half. Again, this does not include any impact from the virus outbreak.

對於亞太地區，我們假設 2020 年基本情況下每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長率為 2% 至 4%，預計香港的疲軟業績將在上半年持續，然後在下半年趕上相對較低的基數。再次強調，這還不包括病毒爆發帶來的任何影響。

Base case RevPAR in Europe could grow 2% -- 2% to 4%, excuse me, for the year driven again by strong demand from U.S. travelers and strength in Eastern European markets. For the Middle East and Africa region, we assume base case RevPAR could grow at a low single-digit rate in 2020. We believe the region will benefit from higher RevPAR in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Africa, somewhat offset by lower RevPAR in the UAE. Continued new lodging supply in Dubai will likely challenge 2020 RevPAR growth in the UAE despite the Expo 2020 event that begins in the fourth quarter.

在歐洲，受美國遊客的強勁需求和東歐市場的強勁表現的推動，今年的基本情況下，每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 可能會增長 2% 到 4%（抱歉，我說的是 2%）。對於中東和非洲地區，我們假設 2020 年基本情況下每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的成長率可能為個位數低段。我們認為，沙烏地阿拉伯、卡達和非洲較高的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將使該地區受益，但阿聯酋較低的每間可供出租客房收入將在一定程度上抵消這一益處。儘管2020年世博會將於第四季開幕，但杜拜持續新增的住宿供應可能會對阿聯酋2020年的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）成長構成挑戰。

In the Caribbean and Latin America region, base case RevPAR could grow at a low single-digit rate for 2020, reflecting more modest economic growth and political uncertainty in some markets. For 2020, we assume 5% to 5.25% net rooms growth, including deletions in the 1% to 1.5% range. Preconstruction and construction delays persist around the world. Again, our rooms growth assumption does not include any impact from the coronavirus situation.

在加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區，2020 年基本情況下每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 可能以較低的個位數增長率增長，這反映出一些市場經濟增長較為溫和，且存在政治不確定性。2020 年，我們預計淨客房成長率為 5% 至 5.25%，其中包括 1% 至 1.5% 的客房減少量。世界各地持續存在施工前和施工延誤問題。再次強調，我們客房成長的預測並未考慮新冠病毒疫情的任何影響。

Before I turn the call over to Leeny, I want to thank all our global associates for their continued hard work, especially those in the Asia Pacific region who have shown such empathy and skill, managing through this challenging time. Our culture is distinctive and it is a real competitive advantage. And I feel very fortunate to work with such purpose-driven and caring individuals.

在將電話交給 Leeny 之前，我想感謝我們全球所有同事的持續努力，特別是亞太地區的同事，他們展現出了極大的同理心和技能，成功度過了這段充滿挑戰的時期。我們的文化獨具特色，這是真正的競爭優勢。我非常幸運能與這些目標明確、充滿愛心的人一起工作。

On a personal note, I had surgery in November and the doctors were pleased with how it went. As part of my treatment plan, I am undergoing a few months of post-surgery chemotherapy. And while I am now fashionably bald, I feel really good. I'm grateful I've been able to work throughout, and I want to thank all of you for your good wishes and support throughout this battle.

就我個人而言，我11月做了手術，醫生對手術結果很滿意。作為治療方案的一部分，我將接受幾個月的術後化療。雖然我現在剃了個時髦的光頭，但我感覺非常好。我很感激自己能夠一直工作下去，也想感謝大家在這段時間裡給予我的美好祝福和支持。

And now Leeny will walk through our financials in more detail. Leeny?

現在，Leeny 將更詳細地介紹我們的財務狀況。莉妮？

Thank you, Arne. Our fourth quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share grew 9% to $1.57, which was $0.11 ahead of the midpoint of our guidance of $1.44 to $1.47. We picked up $0.03 of outperformance from fees, primarily due to better-than-expected incentive management fees in North America and $0.06 from a lower-than-expected tax rate due to higher windfall tax impact and other discrete items. We also benefited from gains on the sale of 2 hotels in North America, which totaled $0.32. These favorable items were partially offset by $0.26 from 2 asset impairments, $0.03 of greater-than-expected general and administrative expenses related to legal costs, bad debt and unfavorable foreign exchange and $0.01 from lower joint venture earnings.

謝謝你，阿恩。我們在第四季度調整後稀釋每股收益成長 9% 至 1.57 美元，比我們先前預測的 1.44 美元至 1.47 美元的中點高出 0.11 美元。我們從費用中獲得了 0.03 美元的超額收益，這主要是由於北美地區激勵管理費好於預期，以及由於意外之財稅收影響較大和其他特殊項目導致稅率低於預期，從而獲得了 0.06 美元的超額收益。我們也從出售北美兩家酒店的收益中獲益，總計 0.32 美元。這些有利項目被以下因素部分抵銷：2 項資產減損造成的 0.26 美元，與法律費用、壞帳和不利匯率相關的超出預期的一般及行政費用造成的 0.03 美元，以及合資企業收益下降造成的 0.01 美元。

Fourth quarter 2019 system-wide comparable global RevPAR rose 1.1% in constant dollars year-over-year. North American RevPAR in the quarter increased nearly 1% with RevPAR among our full-service brands up 2.4%. Leisure markets like Hawaii and Orlando showed notable strength.

2019 年第四季全球系統可比 RevPAR 以固定美元計算年增 1.1%。本季北美RevPAR成長近1%，其中我們全方位服務品牌的RevPAR成長2.4%。夏威夷和奧蘭多等休閒旅遊市場表現強勁。

Our RevPAR in the Asia Pacific region increased 0.3% in the fourth quarter. RevPAR in Hong Kong declined 54% due to continued protests, while RevPAR in Mainland China increased 2.4%. Excluding Hong Kong, RevPAR for the Asia Pacific region rose 3.5%, with strength in Singapore and India.

我們在亞太地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在第四季成長了0.3%。由於持續的抗議活動，香港的每間可供出租客房收入下降了 54%，而中國大陸的每間可供出租客房收入則增加了 2.4%。除香港外，亞太地區的每間可供出租客房收入成長了3.5%，其中新加坡和印度表現強勁。

Our RevPAR in Europe rose 2.8% in the fourth quarter, benefiting from continued significant U.S. demand and robust loyalty program activity. Eastern Europe was particularly strong due to increases in both rate and occ, while in Southern Europe, Italy, Spain and Portugal also saw healthy RevPAR increases.

第四季度，我們在歐洲的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 2.8%，這得益於美國持續強勁的需求和會員忠誠度計劃的積極開展。東歐市場表現特別強勁，入住率和入住率均有所增長；而南歐的意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）也實現了健康增長。

Fourth quarter RevPAR in the Middle East and Africa region increased 2.8%, with strong growth in Riyadh and Mecca in Saudi Arabia. Qatar also posted solid results despite the continued political tensions in the region. RevPAR in the Caribbean and Latin America region rose 0.5% in the fourth quarter with strength in the Caribbean and Mexico partially offset by declines in Chile and Panama.

第四季中東和非洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入成長了 2.8%，其中沙烏地阿拉伯的利雅德和麥加成長強勁。儘管該地區政治局勢持續緊張，卡達也取得了穩健的表現。第四季度，加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 0.5%，其中加勒比海和墨西哥的強勁增長被智利和巴拿馬的下滑部分抵消。

Our fourth quarter gross fee revenue increased 7% versus last year to $974 million due to room additions, higher REVPAR, improved net house profits at managed hotels in North America and Europe and continued strong growth in other franchise fees.

由於客房增加、每間可供出租客房收入 (REVPAR) 提高、北美和歐洲管理酒店的淨利潤改善以及其他特許經營費的持續強勁增長，我們第四季度的總費用收入比去年同期增長了 7%，達到 9.74 億美元。

Depreciation, amortization and other expense increased to $179 million in the quarter. We recognized a $15 million impairment charge associated with the sale of a North American hotel and a $99 million impairment charge related to a leased hotel in North America. Our fourth quarter adjusted tax rate of 21% was higher than the prior year, largely due to favorable discrete items in the year-ago quarter. For full year 2019, our gross fees grew 5% and our adjusted EBITDA increased 3%. Excluding asset impairments and gains in 2018 and 2019, adjusted EPS grew 6% year-over-year to $5.92.

本季折舊、攤銷和其他費用增加至 1.79 億美元。我們確認了與出售一家北美酒店相關的 1500 萬美元減損費用，以及與一家北美租賃酒店相關的 9,900 萬美元減損費用。我們第四季的調整後稅率為 21%，高於去年同期，這主要是由於去年同期存在一些有利的個別項目。2019 年全年，我們的總營收成長了 5%，調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 3%。剔除 2018 年和 2019 年的資產減損和收益，調整後的每股盈餘年增 6% 至 5.92 美元。

During the year, we returned $2.9 billion to shareholders, including $2.3 billion from share repurchases, thanks to successful asset recycling, strong cash flow generation and a reduction in cash balances. Our loyalty program had net cash outflows in 2019. This was primarily due to the marketing spend related to Bonvoy's launch in the first quarter and significantly higher redemptions as members explored the many new locations and experiences offered by the integrated and enhanced program. We expect the Bonvoy program to continue to be a net user of cash in 2020 although meaningfully improved from 2019 levels.

年內，我們向股東返還了 29 億美元，其中包括透過股票回購獲得的 23 億美元，這得益於成功的資產回收、強勁的現金流產生以及現金餘額的減少。我們的會員忠誠度計劃在 2019 年出現了淨現金流出。這主要是由於 Bonvoy 在第一季推出時相關的行銷支出，以及會員探索整合和增強後的計劃所提供的眾多新地點和體驗後，兌換量顯著增加。我們預計萬豪旅享家計畫在 2020 年仍將是現金淨消耗者，儘管與 2019 年的水準相比會有顯著改善。

We received proceeds from recycled assets of $470 million during 2019, including proceeds of roughly $310 million from the sale of the St. Regis New York and $100 million from the sale of the Sheraton Gateway hotel in Toronto.

2019 年，我們從回收資產中獲得了 4.7 億美元的收益，其中包括出售聖路易斯國際機場所得的約 3.1 億美元收益。紐約 Regis 酒店和出售多倫多 Sheraton Gateway 酒店所得的 1 億美元。

Now let's talk more about our base case outlook for 2020. As you know, it does not include any impact from coronavirus, merger-related costs and charges, cost of reimbursed revenue or reimbursed expenses and it assumes no additional asset sales.

現在讓我們更詳細地談談我們對 2020 年的基本展望。如您所知，這不包括冠狀病毒的任何影響、與合併相關的成本和費用、已報銷收入或已報銷費用的成本，並且假設沒有額外的資產出售。

For full year 2020, given our assumptions for global RevPAR, our base case outlook shows gross fee revenue could increase 4% to 6% to reach $3.96 billion to $4.04 billion. Growth should be driven primarily by room additions and other franchise fees, particularly offset -- partially offset by headwinds from renovations, property terminations and roughly $10 million of unfavorable foreign exchange. Other franchise fees, which include credit card branding fees, hotel application and relicensing fees, time-share licensing fees and residential branding fees, are expected to grow roughly 10% to $630 million to $640 million.

根據我們對全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的假設，2020 年全年基本狀況展望顯示，總費用收入可能會增加 4% 至 6%，達到 39.6 億美元至 40.4 億美元。成長主要由客房增加和其他特許經營費推動，尤其要抵消——部分抵消翻新、物業終止和約 1000 萬美元不利外匯的不利影響。其他特許經營費，包括信用卡品牌推廣費、酒店申請和重新許可費、分時度假許可費和住宅品牌推廣費，預計將增長約 10%，達到 6.3 億美元至 6.4 億美元。

We also expect that incentive fees will decline slightly given continued pressure on house profit margins. We assumed owned, leased and other revenue net of direct expenses will total $295 million to $305 million in 2020, flat to up low single digits. These results include slightly lower termination fees offset by a similar amount of favorable year-over-year impact from bought and sold hotels.

鑑於房屋利潤率持續承壓，我們預計激勵費用也將略有下降。我們假設 2020 年自有、租賃和其他收入扣除直接費用後總額將達到 2.95 億美元至 3.05 億美元，與上年持平或略有增長。這些結果包括終止費用略有下降，但被買賣酒店帶來的類似程度的同比有利影響所抵消。

We assume general and administrative expenses will total $950 million to $960 million in 2020, up 1% to 2% versus 2019. And we expect a 2020 effective tax rate of 23.3%. We assume 2020 adjusted EBITDA will total roughly $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion or 3% to 6% over 2019 levels. On the bottom line, we assume 2020 diluted EPS will be $6.30 to $6.53, up 6% to 10% versus $5.92, 2019's adjusted diluted EPS, excluding the impact of asset sale gains and impairments.

我們預計 2020 年一般及行政費用總額將達到 9.5 億美元至 9.6 億美元，比 2019 年增長 1% 至 2%。我們預計 2020 年的實際稅率為 23.3%。我們預計 2020 年調整後 EBITDA 總額約為 37 億美元至 38 億美元，比 2019 年水準成長 3% 至 6%。綜上所述，我們假設 2020 年稀釋後每股收益為 6.30 美元至 6.53 美元，比 2019 年調整後的每股收益 5.92 美元增長 6% 至 10%（不包括資產出售收益和減值的影響）。

For first quarter 2020, our base case forecast assumes global RevPAR growth of 1% to 2% and a 5% to 6% increase in gross fee revenues to reach $940 million to $950 million. Our tax rate in the first quarter is expected to be roughly 21%, 4 percentage points higher than a year ago as a result of higher windfall benefit and discrete items in the prior year quarter. This translates to 5% to 7% growth in diluted earnings per share to $1.47 to $1.50 and 4% to 6% growth in adjusted EBITDA.

對於 2020 年第一季度，我們的基本預測假設全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長 1% 至 2%，總費用收入增長 5% 至 6%，達到 9.4 億美元至 9.5 億美元。由於上一季意外之財和特殊項目較多，預計我們第一季的稅率約為 21%，比去年同期高出 4 個百分點。這意味著稀釋後每股收益將成長 5% 至 7%，達到 1.47 美元至 1.50 美元；調整後 EBITDA 將成長 4% 至 6%。

We remain disciplined in our approach to capital allocation. Using the base case assumptions, 2020 investment spending could total $700 million to $800 million. This includes around $200 million of maintenance investment spending, roughly $200 million of system investments that will largely be reimbursed by owners over time and $300 million to support new unit growth. We expect roughly 3/4 of this new unit investment will be associated with luxury and upper upscale properties.

我們在資本配置方面始終保持嚴謹的態度。根據基本假設，2020 年的投資支出總額可能達到 7 億至 8 億美元。這其中包括約 2 億美元的維護投資支出，約 2 億美元的系統投資（大部分將由業主在一段時間內償還），以及 3 億美元用於支援新單位的成長。我們預計這部分新增投資中約有四分之三將用於豪華和高檔住宅。

These projects typically provide higher fees per room and attractive 20-plus year agreements. Projects where we invest our own capital are expected to generate a substantially higher value per key over the life of the contract on average compared to full-service deals with no Marriott capital.

這些項目通常提供更高的房間租金和極具吸引力的 20 年以上租約。與沒有萬豪資金的全服務型飯店相比，我們投入自有資金的專案預計在合約期間內每間客房的平均價值將大幅提高。

Under our base case and assuming this level of investment, we would expect to return more than $2.4 billion of cash to shareholders through share repurchase and dividends for the full year 2020, assuming no impact from the coronavirus and no additional asset sales. Note that this outlook assumes roughly $200 million higher cash tax payments than in 2019, primarily due to timing.

在我們的基本情況下，假設投資水平達到這一水平，我們預計在 2020 年全年透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還超過 24 億美元的現金，前提是不受冠狀病毒的影響，也沒有額外的資產出售。請注意，由於時間因素，這項預測假設現金稅款支付額比 2019 年高出約 2 億美元。

We remain committed to our strong investment-grade credit rating. We ended the year within our 3.0 to 3.5x debt-to-EBITDAR target range, and our base case model assumes we will remain within this target range. We will continue to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus situation on the company's cash flow and debt levels and manage leverage within our targeted range.

我們將繼續保持強勁的投資等級信用評級。我們年底的債務與EBITDAR比率維持在3.0至3.5倍的目標範圍內，我們的基本狀況模型假設我們將繼續維持在這個目標範圍內。我們將繼續評估冠狀病毒疫情對公司現金流和債務水準的影響，並將槓桿率控制在目標範圍內。

Turning back to the coronavirus situation. Arne noted our distribution in the Asia Pacific region. From a financial perspective, 2019 gross fees earned in the Asia Pacific region totaled $477 million, representing 12% of our global gross fee revenue. Greater China generated about half of the fees in Asia Pacific, representing roughly 6% of both global fees and total adjusted EBITDA.

再回到新冠病毒疫情上來。Arne 注意到我們在亞太地區的銷售情況。從財務角度來看，2019 年亞太地區的總收入為 4.77 億美元，占我們全球總收入的 12%。大中華區產生的費用約佔亞太地區的一半，約佔全球費用和調整後 EBITDA 總額的 6%。

Our base case model assumes Asia Pacific and fees in 2020 will total roughly $500 million to $510 million, with Greater China fees again constituting about half of that amount. Assuming the current low occupancy and RevPAR levels in the Asia Pacific region continue, we estimate the region will earn roughly $25 million less in fees and EBITDA per month as compared to our 2020 base case.

我們的基本狀況模型假設亞太地區 2020 年的費用總額約為 5 億至 5.1 億美元，其中大中華區的費用約佔該金額的一半。假設亞太地區目前的低入住率和每間可供出租客房收入水平持續下去，我們估計該地區每月將比 2020 年的基本情況少獲得約 2500 萬美元的費用和 EBITDA。

This means that for the first quarter, given our results in Asia Pacific to date and assuming the same low levels of RevPAR in March as we've seen in February and no meaningful impact outside of Asia Pacific, total gross fees and total adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter could be roughly $60 million below our base case and diluted EPS could be roughly $0.14 per share below our base case.

這意味著，鑑於我們迄今為止在亞太地區的業績，並假設 3 月份的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 與 2 月份一樣處於低位，且亞太地區以外沒有受到實質性影響，那麼第一季的總毛費用和調整後的總 EBITDA 可能比我們的基本預期低約 6000 萬美元，稀釋後每股收益可能比我們的基本預期低約 6000 萬美元，稀釋後每股收益可能比我們的基本預期低約 6000 萬美元，稀釋後每股收益可能比我們的基本預期低約 414.14 美元，稀釋後每股收益可能比我們的基本預期 414.14 美元，稀釋後每股收益可能比我們的基本預期 414.14 美元，稀釋後每股收益可能比我們的基本預期 414.14 美元，稀釋後每股收益可能比我們的基本預期約 414.14 美元，稀釋後每股收益可能比我們的基本預期

The analysis we are providing today has the benefit of actual results through the first 2 months of the quarter. There's still a great deal we do not know, including the length and global scope of the virus and the impact of potential supply chain disruptions on the global economy. As already noted, despite these unknowns, the virus will run its course. And when it does, its impact will not be long-lasting.

我們今天提供的分析得益於本季前兩個月的實際結果。我們仍有許多未知之處，包括病毒的持續時間和全球傳播範圍，以及潛在的供應鏈中斷對全球經濟的影響。如前所述，儘管存在這些未知因素，病毒仍會以其發展軌跡傳播。即使真的發生了，其影響也不會持久。

We entered 2020 with tremendous competitive momentum in RevPAR, unit growth and brand strength and with an industry-leading loyalty program. This momentum will carry us through this crisis and beyond.

2020 年伊始，我們在每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)、單元成長和品牌實力方面都擁有巨大的競爭優勢，並且擁有業界領先的忠誠度計劃。這種勢頭將幫助我們渡過這場危機，並走向更美好的未來。

We'll now open the line for questions. (Operator Instructions)

現在我們將開放提問環節。（操作說明）

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley 的線路。

Thank you for all the commentary in some of the sensitivities. I know this is a really kind of fluid dynamic, and I think we're all trying to get a hold of it for the global travel landscape.

感謝各位就某些敏感問題所發表的意見。我知道這是一個瞬息萬變的動態，我認為我們都在努力掌握它，以適應全球旅遊格局。

So with that in mind, Leeny, as you think about some of the sensitivities you gave in the last section of your prepared remarks, are we really -- for that $25 million, are we really just extrapolating current trend line for, let's call it, Mainland China and Asia Pacific? Or have we also accounted for the fact that this is spreading into, where we know so far, South Korea, Japan? Appreciate that Western Europe is not probably part of that sensitivity.

所以，Leeny，考慮到這一點，當你思考你在準備好的發言稿最後一部分提到的一些敏感問題時，我們真的——對於這 2500 萬美元，我們真的只是在推斷當前趨勢線，比如說，中國大陸和亞太地區嗎？或者我們也考慮到了這種情況正在蔓延到我們目前所知的韓國和日本？請理解，西歐可能不屬於這種敏感領域。

But is there any -- so the question is, one, does it include broader APAC getting worse? And then second, any sensitivities you could provide for us as we start to branch out into Western Europe, which we now know is an issue and then as we move kind of towards the U.S., which seems increasingly likely?

但是否存在這種情況——所以問題是，第一，這是否包括亞太地區整體狀況惡化？其次，當我們開始向西歐擴張時（我們現在知道這是一個問題），以及當我們逐漸向美國擴張時（這似乎越來越有可能），您能否為我們提供一些注意事項？

Thanks, Shaun. Sure. Let me start. So the sensitivity we've given you is based on where we are in February, which is, as Arne described, is Asia Pacific RevPAR being down about 50%. But obviously, that is massively skewed by Greater China being down 90% while the rest of Asia Pacific is down meaningfully less. So that is based on an assumption that they stay roughly the same and that we continue to have no meaningful impact outside of Asia Pacific.

謝謝你，肖恩。當然。我先開始。因此，我們給出的敏感度是基於我們二月的情況，正如 Arne 所描述的那樣，亞太地區的每間可供出租客房收入下降了約 50%。但顯然，由於大中華區經濟下滑了 90%，而亞太其他地區的經濟下滑幅度要小得多，因此這一結果存在很大的偏差。這是基於以下假設：它們大致保持不變，並且我們在亞太地區以外不會產生任何實質影響。

As you pointed out in your comment and your question, this is extremely fluid situation. We are actually now reopening hotels in China every day. But at the same time, how this exactly spreads to other continents remains to be seen.

正如您在評論和問題中指出的那樣，目前的情況瞬息萬變。我們現在實際上每天都在中國重新開放酒店。但同時，這種現象究竟會如何蔓延到其他大陸，還有待觀察。

Just in terms of the other continents, I think you're familiar with our basic layout of fees, which is that again, broadly speaking, you know that North America is roughly 2/3; Greater China, Asia Pacific, we described as being roughly 16%; CALA, 4%; Europe, 9%; and EMEA at 4%. So all of these line up relatively well with our fee distribution as you look throughout the world.

至於其他大洲，我想您應該熟悉我們的基本收費結構，也就是說，總的來說，北美大約佔 2/3；大中華區、亞太地區，我們將其描述為大約 16%；中美洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比地區，4%；歐洲，9%；歐洲、中東和非洲地區，4%。因此，從全球範圍來看，這些都與我們的費用分佈基本吻合。

The only other thing I'll mention, Shaun, is just to remember that from an IMF perspective, that Asia Pacific accounts for roughly 1/3 of our incentive management fees. North America accounts for another 1/3 and the rest of international accounts for about 1/3. So all of that fits into the equation that we gave you of the $25 million per month from Asia Pacific.

肖恩，我唯一要補充的是，從國際貨幣基金組織的角度來看，亞太地區約占我們激勵管理費的三分之一。北美佔三分之一，其餘國際地區約佔三分之一。所以所有這些都符合我們之前給出的亞太地區每月 2500 萬美元的收入等式。

Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

This is Arpine for Robin. It sounds like unit growth of around 5% doesn't include any virus impact. And you mentioned in your release that if the situation were to get worse, there will be impact to unit growth. Is there any impact currently that's not included that you quantify? And I know this could be challenging, but maybe you could provide some sensitivity similar to how you quantify fee impact in terms of unit growth.

這是羅賓的阿爾皮內。聽起來，約 5% 的單位成長率並沒有包含病毒的影響。您在新聞稿中提到，如果情況惡化，將對單位成長產生影響。目前是否有任何未包含在內但需要量化的影響？我知道這可能很有挑戰性，但或許您可以提供一些類似於您如何量化單位成長方面的費用影響的敏感度分析。

It's -- I think it's too -- first, good morning. It is too early to give you a numeric sensitivity to openings. I think obviously, you've got, in Asia Pacific particularly, a very intense situation. We did open about 1,000 rooms in January in China. But in a sense, that's sort of before or at the very front end of this coronavirus.

我覺得——首先——早安。現在給出開盤價的數值敏感度還為時過早。我認為很明顯，尤其是在亞太地區，局勢非常緊張。今年1月，我們在中國開設了約1000間客房。但從某種意義上來說，這算是新冠病毒疫情爆發之前或爆發初期的事情。

I think if you look at the next few months, while we've got about 90 hotels closed and RevPAR down nearly 90% in the market, there's not much urgency to get a hotel open even if it's ready. That if it's ready, though, it will open before the end of the year. And so the impact on full year numbers may be nothing, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some of this get delayed.

我認為，展望未來幾個月，雖然市場上大約有 90 家酒店關閉，每間可供出租客房收入下降了近 90%，但即使酒店已經準備就緒，也沒有太大的緊迫性去重新開業。如果一切就緒，它將在年底前開業。因此，對全年數據的影響可能微乎其微，但其中一些項目被推遲也不足為奇。

I think in the rest of the world, it's much harder to assess. We have talked to our design and construction folks. We've talked to a number of our partners. And I think, generally, it is decorative furnishings and some furniture and maybe some fabrics that are most likely to be sourced from China. We think that the openings that were sort of planned for the first part of 2020 are more likely to have had all those supplies either in possession or en route to them and so could well not be impacted.

我認為在世界其他地方，這種情況更難評估。我們已經和設計和施工人員溝通過了。我們已經和一些合作夥伴談過了。而且我認為，總的來說，裝飾品、一些家具，或許還有一些布料，最有可能來自中國。我們認為，原計劃在 2020 年上半年開業的店鋪，其所有物資很可能已經到位或正在運往店舖的途中，因此不太可能受到影響。

But I think we and many other industries, of course, are looking at the longer-term supply impact will be to the supplies that we need. Obviously, in this context, it's more about hotels opening than the operating supplies. But I think that there -- it wouldn't be at all surprising to us to see some further extension of the construction schedule in certainly -- as long as this virus situation lasts.

但我認為，我們以及許多其他行業當然都在關注長期供應將對我們所需的物資產生的影響。顯然，在這種情況下，重點在於酒店能否開業，而不是營運物資的供應。但我認為，只要這種病毒疫情持續下去，施工進度進一步延長對我們來說一點也不奇怪。

The only thing I'll add is to remember that new hotels opened throughout the year, and they're all ramping up starting from 0. So their fee contribution in year 1 is extremely small relative to overall fees. Now obviously, year 2 is more important. But the year 1 impact, frankly, from a bit lower openings, is not meaningful.

我唯一要補充的是，要記住今年有很多新酒店開業，它們都是從零開始逐步發展起來的。因此，它們第一年的費用貢獻相對於總費用而言非常小。顯然，第二年更重要。但坦白說，由於開盤價略低，第一年的影響並不顯著。

Your next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis with Instinet.

你的下一個問題來自哈里·柯蒂斯與Instinet樂團的合作系列。

There are so many questions. So many unknowable question -- or answers to questions. So I -- maybe I'll focus on something that's a little bit more tangible, which would be the increase in your termination fees and your comments related to the renovations to the Sheraton brand. Are the -- the increase in termination fees, were those more tied to the Sheraton brand or is it a mix of brands? And do you see the -- what's the pipeline look like for kind of the legacy brands into 2021?

問題太多了。太多無法解答的問題——或者說，太多問題的答案。所以，我——或許我會關註一些更具體的事情，例如您提出的終止費用增加的問題，以及您對喜來登品牌翻新工程的評論。終止費用的增加，是與喜來登品牌有關，還是多個品牌都有影響？那麼，您認為到 2021 年，傳統品牌的發展前景如何？

Sure. Harry, we'll cover those. So first of all, let's talk about termination fees. Overall, termination fees in 2019 were meaningfully lower than they were in 2018, and we actually expect termination fees in 2020 to be even lower still. So the ones in Q4, really, a question about timing and which hotels close and they can have a varying amount associated with them.

當然。哈里，我們會處理那些問題的。首先，我們來談談終止費用。整體而言，2019 年的終止費用明顯低於 2018 年，我們預期 2020 年的終止費用還會更低。所以，第四季度的問題實際上在於時間安排以及哪些酒店關閉，而這些酒店關閉可能會帶來不同程度的影響。

The other point I would mention, if you remember, last year, we had deleted rooms that started to get closer to 2%, while this year, we are squarely at 1% in terminations, which is on the lower end of our 1% to 1.5% guidance that we've given. So I think from that standpoint, I think we feel good about the progression of how it's going with our portfolio.

我還想提一點，如果你還記得的話，去年我們刪除的房間數量開始接近 2%，而今年，我們的終止率正好是 1%，這在我們給出的 1% 到 1.5% 的指導範圍內。所以從這個角度來看，我認為我們對投資組合的發展前景感到滿意。

I think in terms of the pipeline that we see, both in terms of legacy brands and in terms of the Starwood portfolio brands, I think, as we've described in Q4, we really kind of topped out a spectacular year in terms of new deal signings. And they were happily very well distributed across all of our brands with some notable growth in some of the Starwood legacy brands.

我認為就我們看到的儲備項目而言，無論是傳統品牌還是喜達屋旗下品牌，正如我們在第四季度所描述的那樣，我們在新簽約方面確實為輝煌的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。令人欣喜的是，這些成長在我們所有品牌中分佈得非常均勻，其中一些喜達屋傳統品牌的成長尤為顯著。

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

You touched on this in the press release and your earlier comments, Arne, about the solid RevPAR index growth both in the fourth quarter and for the full year. Can you talk about how the Starwood legacy properties in North America performed, how much of the index fees would you attribute to those assets?

Arne，你在新聞稿和你之前的評論中都提到了這一點，第四季度和全年的RevPAR指數都實現了穩健增長。您能否談談喜達屋在北美地區的傳統物業表現如何？您認為指數費用中有多少應歸因於這些資產？

And then when you think about the performance in RevPAR growth this year, obviously, Greater China coronavirus neutral, how do you look at the Starwood legacy properties performing versus the Marriott legacy properties?

那麼，當我們考慮今年的RevPAR成長情況時（顯然，不考慮大中華區新冠疫情的影響），您如何看待喜達屋傳統酒店與萬豪傳統酒店的表現？

Yes. The -- it's obviously a big world. But as we mentioned in the comments, both legacy Marriott and legacy Starwood portfolios have been really performing extraordinarily well on index, both in Q4 and full year 2019 and as we start 2020 and both really hundreds of basis points.

是的。世界之大，顯而易見。但正如我們在評論中提到的，無論是萬豪酒店集團還是喜達屋酒店集團，其傳統投資組合在 2019 年第四季和全年以及 2020 年伊始，指數表現都非常出色，漲幅高達數百個基點。

The -- in Q4, there were some easy comparisons. Obviously, we had a strike last year in the United States, which impacted San Francisco and Hawaii probably most. They had probably a bit more impact on the legacy Starwood portfolio than on the legacy Marriott portfolio. But even there, the RevPAR index performance in Q4 of last year was down a bit -- was down meaningfully less than it was up this year in Q4. So whether you look at strikes or you look at a little bit of integration noise in Q4 of 2018, we not only made up that ground but we lapped it.

第四季有一些比較容易的對比。顯然，去年美國發生了罷工，舊金山和夏威夷受到的影響可能最大。它們對原喜達屋酒店集團的影響可能比對原萬豪酒店集團的影響更大一些。但即便如此，去年第四季的RevPAR指數表現也略有下降——下降幅度明顯小於今年第四季的上升幅度。所以，無論你看罷工還是看 2018 年第四季的一些整合噪音，我們不僅彌補了這些損失，而且還遠遠超過了它們。

There are other sort of spectacular numbers. You can see from our Q4, China RevPAR numbers, excluding Hong Kong at plus 2.5%. I think the China team saw a RevPAR index growth for the 2 portfolios of plus 600 to 700 basis points. And that is -- it's all cylinders moving. It's the loyalty program, it is the digital platforms and the way they're performing, it is the sales team. There's good news sort of across the portfolio, and it is very much shared by both the Marriott and the Starwood portfolios.

還有其他類型的驚人數字。從我們第四季的中國RevPAR數據可以看出，不包括香港在內，中國RevPAR成長了2.5%。我認為中國團隊看到這兩個投資組合的RevPAR指數成長了600到700個基點。也就是說——一切都在正常運作。問題在於會員忠誠度計劃、數位平台及其運作情況以及銷售團隊。整個投資組合傳來了一些好消息，萬豪和喜達屋旗下飯店都普遍受益。

Your next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So maybe a question for Leeny. If I look back at your operating cash prior to 2019, you were run rating about $2.4 billion before some of these cash headwinds that you've called out, particularly on the Bonvoy redemptions but also with the cash taxes.

所以，也許該問莉妮一個問題。回顧 2019 年之前的營運現金流，在受到您所指出的某些現金流不利因素（特別是 Bonvoy 積分兌換以及現金稅）的影響之前，您的營運現金流約為 24 億美元。

So can you help me think about what you're expecting for 2020? And does 2021 get back to sort of that prior run rate level that you can grow from. And obviously, I realize that a lot of that depends on how long this coronavirus impact lasts. But I guess what I'm ultimately getting at is, were there any benefits to pre-2019 cash flow that you just don't expect to see anymore?

那麼，你能幫我想想你對2020年的期望嗎？2021年能否恢復到之前那種可以持續成長的運行速度水準？當然，我也意識到這很大程度取決於新冠病毒疫情的影響會持續多久。但我最終想問的是，2019 年之前的現金流有哪些好處是你現在認為再也看不見了？

So yes. So a couple of things that I pointed out. One is that we definitely had a bit of a benefit on the cash tax side in '19 that we will then pay for in 2020, relative, for example, on the cash taxes that we're paying on our asset sales. So that is a bit of timing that will even out, obviously, over time.

是的。我指出了幾點。一方面，我們在 2019 年的現金稅方面確實獲得了一些好處，但另一方面，我們將在 2020 年為此付出代價，例如，在我們出售資產時繳納的現金稅方面。所以這只是時間上的一點差異，顯然隨著時間的推移，這種差異會逐漸消失。

On the loyalty side, I think that is the one that is worth spending a little time talking about. And there, I think you definitely saw that in 2018, we saw the loyalty program behave more in its more historical pattern of being a cash -- net cash positive part of our story. And this year, it moved to being several hundred million of a net cash user.

關於忠誠度，我認為這是值得花點時間討論的議題。而且，我認為你肯定在 2018 年看到了這一點，我們看到忠誠度計劃的表現更符合其歷史模式，成為現金流——淨現金流為正的一部分。今年，該公司的淨現金使用量達到了數億美元。

And that, you really need to think of within the context of the introduction of Bonvoy. I think there was some pent-up demand relative to our customers being excited about being able to explore all of our properties and use their points at a much more expanded portfolio. We also had the introduction of Bonvoy, which moves some timing of marketing expenses from 2018 to 2019.

這一點，確實需要放在萬豪旅享家推出的背景下考慮。我認為，我們的客戶對能夠探索我們所有的酒店，並在更廣泛的酒店組合中使用他們的積分感到興奮，這方面存在一些被壓抑的需求。我們還推出了 Bonvoy，這將部分行銷費用從 2018 年推遲到 2019 年。

And you put that together, and I think in the first year of the program, you definitely saw a fairly unusual pattern for the program. We are quite confident that, that will smooth out over time and return to its more normal patterns. We do think it will still be a user in 2020 but much less of a cash user.

把這些因素綜合起來，我認為在專案的第一年，你肯定會看到一個相當不尋常的專案模式。我們相當有信心，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會逐漸好轉，並恢復到更正常的模式。我們認為它在 2020 年仍會是一個用戶，但現金用戶會大大減少。

And things that we've talked about, like the introduction of peak, off-peak, which manages the demand a little bit better in terms of the points that it costs at the different properties, both in low and high-demand times, all of that will work towards getting this program to where I think it behaves more like it has in the past.

我們也討論過一些事情，例如引入高峰時段和非高峰時段，這樣可以更好地管理不同物業在低需求和高需求時段的積分成本，所有這些都將有助於使該計劃恢復到我認為它過去運行的狀態。

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.

你的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

Are you seeing any discernible uptick in cancellation activity outside of the Asia Pacific regions, at areas, say, like airport hotels or in general?

您是否注意到亞太地區以外的地區，例如機場飯店或其他地區，取消預訂的情況有明顯的增加？

Yes. Let's -- obviously, the weekend news around coronavirus was not good. You had South Korea and Italy both and the Iran story as well a little bit. Obviously, we don't have any in Iran, and so there's no measurable impact there. But we're just days into it. So we are essentially every day getting the team together by phone and getting data where we look at performance across these markets. And we're listening to our customers, obviously, talk about it.

是的。顯然，週末關於新冠病毒的新聞並不樂觀。節目中既有韓國和義大利的故事，也有伊朗的故事，雖然篇幅不長。顯然，我們在伊朗沒有任何此類設施，因此在那裡沒有可衡量的影響。但我們才剛開始幾天。因此，我們基本上每天都會透過電話召集團隊，獲取數據，查看這些市場的表現。當然，我們也在聽取客戶的意見和建議。

And let me give you a few anecdotes. Maybe start with Asia Pacific, even though your question focuses on the rest of the world. I'll talk about the rest of the world in a second. China itself, Leeny mentioned about 90 hotels closed, we have RevPAR down about 90%. I think the last full week number I had was minus 87% year-over-year, so not quite as bad as minus 90%.

讓我來跟你講幾個軼事。或許可以先從亞太地區著手，儘管你的問題主要集中在世界其他地區。我稍後會談到世界其他地方。根據Leeny介紹，中國境內約有90家飯店關閉，每間可供出租客房收入下降了約90%。我記得上一週的完整數據顯示比去年同期下降了 87%，所以沒有比去年同期下降 90% 那麼糟糕。

The Chinese government is trying to ramp at least some things back up. So we can see, for example, in Macau, we probably got down to 1% to 2% occupancy. We may now be at 7% to 8% occupancy. Now that's still down massively year-over-year. I think it's too soon to put much stock in this effort to reopen China because it's early, and you still have schools closed, and we don't really know exactly how this is going to come back. But there is at least some hope, I suppose, that we've bottomed in China and maybe things will get a little bit better.

中國政府正試圖至少恢復某些方面的運作。例如，我們可以看到，澳門的入住率可能已經降到了 1% 到 2%。目前入住率可能在7%到8%之間。現在這個數字仍然比去年同期大幅下降。我認為現在就對中國重新開放的努力寄予厚望還為時過早，因為現在還處於早期階段，學校仍然關閉，而且我們還不確切地知道疫情將如何發展。但我想，至少還有一線希望，那就是中國的情況可能已經觸底反彈，也許情況會好轉一些。

You move around the rest of Asia Pacific and you see some things that you would expect. So Singapore, down about 50% RevPAR year-over-year. That's a, again, a recent week number. That's not a full year February number. By contrast, India, up 5%. That was before President Trump's visit, so that's not driven by his visit but is driven by the fact that India is really not much dependent on China travel and has got a different GDP story than one which is dependent on the China story.

當你走遍亞太地區的其他地方，你會看到一些意料之中的事。新加坡的每間可供出租客房收入較去年同期下降了約 50%。那又是最近一週的數據了。那不是整個二月的數據。相比之下，印度上漲了 5%。那是在川普總統訪問之前，所以這不是受他的訪問所驅動，而是因為印度實際上並不怎麼依賴中國的旅遊業，其GDP發展模式與那些依賴中國旅遊業的國家截然不同。

Obviously, when you look at South Korea and Italy, we will see both cancellations and we will see declining RevPAR in those markets. Still too early to tell. I know that some of the Italian cities, we've probably lost a few tens of points of occupancy in the first days. But that's not the country as a whole, and it's far too soon to come up with sort of predictions for that, if you will.

顯然，看看韓國和義大利，我們會看到取消預訂的情況，也會看到這些市場的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）下降。現在下結論還為時過早。我知道在一些義大利城市，我們在最初幾天入住率可能下降了幾十個百分點。但這並不能代表整個國家的情況，現在就對整個國家的情況做出預測還為時過早。

I think when all is said and done, we would have to characterize our $25 million a month. Run rate as being probably a bit light because we're going to see some impact in Europe. We're going to see some impact in other markets around the world, which is probably not entirely dependent on China travel. And our $25 million is basically a China travel story and an APAC story.

我認為歸根結底，我們必須對每月 2500 萬美元的收入進行分類。預計跑動率會偏低，因為我們將會看到一些歐洲賽事的影響。我們將會看到世界其他市場受到一些影響，而這些市場可能不完全依賴中國旅遊業。我們的2500萬美元基本上講述的是一個中國旅遊故事和一個亞太地區的故事。

But I think even though that we would expect this will be messy for the next few weeks, if not maybe the next few months, we'd go back to what we've said before, and that is that this will end. It's clear that it will end. We can't tell you when it will end. But when people start to get confidence that they don't need to be worried about picking this up if they're thinking about going to Seoul, for example, that travel will come back, and it will probably come back fairly quickly.

但我認為，儘管我們預計未來幾週甚至幾個月情況都會很混亂，但我們還是要回到我們之前說過的話，那就是這一切終將結束。很明顯，這一切終將結束。我們無法告訴你它何時結束。但當人們開始相信，如果他們打算去首爾等地旅行，就不必擔心會感染這種病毒時，旅遊業就會復甦，而且可能會很快復甦。

Your next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose from Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose 系列。

I wanted to -- just wanted to ask you, you broke out, so your CapEx line item is about $300 million towards new unit growth. How does that compare to '19? And just are you just seeing more opportunities that you want to go after? Or is that landscape becoming more competitive? Or maybe just a little more color around that expenditure.

我想問一下，你們的資本支出項目大約有 3 億美元用於新的業務成長。與 2019 年相比如何？你是否看到了更多想要把握的機會？或者說，這種競爭格局正在變得更加激烈？或許可以再詳細說說這筆開支。

Sure. So generally, I'd say, similar, maybe a tad higher relative to '19. But again, it ties, as I said before, to the reality that these are generally on fantastic, full service and luxury projects that are well worth the investment. And I think it ties to our success in signing new deals in these hotels around the world where the owners want our brands and generally, the market is competitive for capital for those projects. But when we look at the value that we get on these hotels, we expect it to be meaningfully higher than the ones that require no capital. So again, a little bit higher but not meaningfully.

當然。所以總的來說，我認為與 2019 年相比，情況類似，可能略高一些。但正如我之前所說，這又與這樣一個現實有關：這些項目通常都是非常棒的、全方位服務的豪華項目，非常值得投資。我認為這與我們在全球各地酒店成功簽署新協議有關，這些酒店的業主都想要我們的品牌，而且通常來說，這些項目的資金市場競爭非常激烈。但當我們審視這些酒店的價值時，我們預計其價值將顯著高於那些無需資本投入的酒店。所以，雖然略高一些，但差異不大。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼鮑威爾。

Just a couple of questions on the loyalty program. Question on the loyalty program. You mentioned the positive impact of the redemption activity in the quarter. How did points earnings trend in the quarter? And are you happy with the level of activity around earning points in the system? And given the positive impact of redemptions, does it make sense to run the loyalty program over more of a cash-neutral position over time rather than cash-positive position over time?

關於會員計劃，我還有幾個問題。關於會員積分計畫的問題。您提到了本季贖回活動的正面影響。本季積分收益趨勢如何？您對系統中積分獲取的活躍程度是否滿意？考慮到兌換帶來的正面影響，隨著時間的推移，讓忠誠度計畫保持現金中性而不是現金正值是否更有意義？

The -- a bunch of questions there. I mean I think we talked about our penetration, too, which is both paid and redeemed nights as a percentage of total nights in the hotels, and we are seeing those penetration numbers move meaningfully up. And to state the obvious, that means the program is growing enough to deal with the roughly 5% unit growth plus drive increased penetration in comp hotels, and we're very pleased with that. So we're seeing both paid up about 10% or so and redeemed up significantly, too, and that's all gratifying for us.

那裡有一堆問題。我的意思是，我們也討論過我們的滲透率，也就是付費和兌換的晚數佔酒店總晚數的百分比，我們看到這些滲透率數字正在顯著上升。顯而易見，這意味著該計劃發展壯大，足以應對約 5% 的單位增長，並推動在免費酒店中實現更高的滲透率，我們對此非常滿意。所以我們看到，一部分款項已經支付了大約 10%，另一部分款項也得到了大幅償還，這讓我們感到非常欣慰。

I think -- well, it's a little harder to get share of wallet data because we guess on that a little bit. We're obviously -- we don't have internally the kinds of tools we need to measure share of wallet. We're quite convinced we are increasing share of wallet on -- from the loyalty program and from our loyalty members.

我認為——嗯，要取得錢包份額數據有點困難，因為我們在這方面有點靠猜測。很顯然，我們內部沒有衡量錢包份額所需的工具。我們非常確信，我們正在提高忠誠度計劃和忠誠度會員的錢包份額。

I think longer term, and Leeny's talked about both cash flow impacts in 2019 and in 2020, there's absolutely no reason that the loyalty program won't get back to being a positive cash flow generator for us on an annual basis. That is, obviously, driven significantly by the fact that we continue to grow the program, and we continue to grow our portfolio of hotels. And so as you do that, we will tend to issue more points for paid stays than are redeemed. And we will continue to see, as we've done in the past, that there are more and more revenues coming into this program, which are coming in from credit card partners or restaurant partners or other partners besides just the hotels that are participating in the program.

我認為從長遠來看，Leeny 也談到了 2019 年和 2020 年的現金流影響，因此，忠誠度計劃完全有可能每年都為我們帶來正現金流。顯然，這很大程度上是由於我們不斷擴大專案規模，以及我們不斷擴大酒店組合所致。因此，隨著您這樣做，我們發放的付費住宿積分往往多於實際兌換的積分。我們將繼續看到，正如過去一樣，越來越多的收入流入該計劃，這些收入來自信用卡合作夥伴、餐廳合作夥伴以及參與該計劃的酒店之外的其他合作夥伴。

So this is -- obviously, to be cash flow negative in the loyalty program in 2019 is unusual in a sense. We'd love to wave a wand and have it be something different. But it is actually quite logical given the launch of the program, both to market it, the new name and to get this massive group of customers to experiment with it. And we are much more pleased than we are disappointed because it shows the engagement of our loyalty members with the program and with us.

所以，很顯然，2019 年忠誠度計畫出現負現金流在某種程度上是不尋常的。我們多麼希望揮舞魔法棒，就能讓它變成別的樣子。但考慮到該計劃的推出，無論是為了推廣該計劃、新名稱，還是為了讓這個龐大的客戶群進行試用，這樣做實際上是非常合乎邏輯的。我們感到非常高興，而不是失望，因為這表明我們的忠誠會員對該計劃和我們都非常投入。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Crow with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自比爾克勞和雷蒙詹姆斯的合作系列。

You kind of classified the areas outside of China as not materially impacted. I saw in the STR data yesterday that occupancy was down 100 basis points or more kind of everywhere, different segments and everything else. I'm wondering if that's kind of the start of the impact that we should expect to see. What are you seeing as far as real-time inbound international travel from areas outside of China and cancellations when you think about maybe the gateway markets?

你似乎將中國以外的地區歸類為未受到實質影響的地區。我昨天在STR的數據顯示，入住率普遍下降了100個基點或更多，各個細分市場和其他所有方面都是如此。我在想這是否是我們應該預期會看到的衝擊的開始。您認為從中國以外地區入境的國際旅行即時情況如何？從門戶市場的角度來看，取消航班的情況又如何？

I think the fair response, Bill, is we're asking the same question you're asking. And what we get back at the moment is very much anecdotal, doesn't really show up in our data yet. We obviously get our weekly flashes, and we get a daily look if we want to dig in and get a daily look.

比爾，我認為公平的回答是，我們問的也是你問的同一個問題。目前我們得到的回饋大多是零星的，還沒有真正體現在我們的數據中。我們當然會收到每週的預覽，如果我們想深入了解並查看每日預覽，我們還可以查看每日預覽。

And by and large, you look at the U.S. market, for example, which, just as a reminder, is basically 95% to 96% domestic travel. So all business in the United States coming from international markets is in the 4% range, maybe 4.5%. And big markets in that would include neighboring markets like Canada and Mexico, which probably have a different kind of travel profile, if you will, than the travel coming in from further abroad.

總的來說，以美國市場為例，需要提醒的是，美國市場基本上 95% 到 96% 都是國內旅遊。因此，美國所有來自國際市場的業務佔比在 4% 到 4.5% 之間。其中的大市場包括加拿大和墨西哥等鄰近市場，這些市場的旅遊模式可能與來自更遠國家的遊客有所不同。

And there, we've got very, very few cases in the U.S. Obviously, we're all watching that to look at. But we're not really seeing a measurable impact yet. We're instead seeing, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, a handful of group things really globally, which have canceled so far.

目前，美國祇有非常非常少的病例。顯然，我們都在密切關注這一情況。但我們目前還沒有看到明顯的影響。正如我們在準備好的演講稿中提到的，我們看到的是一些真正全球性的團體活動，到目前為止都已經取消了。

I suspect it will step up a little bit, but we're going to watch that on a day-to-day basis. And overwhelmingly, obviously, that depends not just on time, but it depends on what are the incidences of the cases of this virus in various markets in the world and how do travelers react to that.

我估計情況會略有好轉，但我們會每天觀察情況。而且，很顯然，這不僅取決於時間，還取決於世界各地不同市場中這種病毒的病例發生以及旅行者對此的反應。

I appreciate that. If I could just follow-up and ask if there are any takeaways from -- we went through SARS and the bird flu, and we've gone through a number of different coronavirus or some sort of flu-like thing over the last, what, 15 years. Anything that you've taken away from that, that you can kind of guide your -- the company based on that?

我很感激。如果我能繼續追問一下，從我們經歷過的 SARS 和禽流感，以及過去 15 年裡經歷的許多不同的冠狀病毒或某種類似流感的疾病中，我們有什麼經驗教訓嗎？從中你學到了什麼，可以以此指導你的公司發展？

Yes. Leeny will have that precise number here that is worth talking about. But the comparison to SARS, which is probably the most similar virus, is very hard to make. I think if you go back to 2003, I'm guessing here a little bit, Chinese annual outbound travel would have been, I don't know, sub-10 million trips a year. And last year, we were probably closer to 150 million China outbound trips. So the relevance of China to the rest of the world is dramatically different.

是的。Leeny會在這裡給出一個值得討論的確切數字。但要將其與 SARS 進行比較（SARS 可能是最相似的病毒），是非常困難的。我想，如果回到 2003 年，我這裡只是猜測一下，中國每年的出境旅遊人數可能不到 1,000 萬人次。去年，中國出境旅遊人數可能接近 1.5 億人次。因此，中國對世界其他地區的重要性發生了巨大變化。

The second thing, I think, if you look at Marriott's own story, we had -- we mentioned we've got 375 hotels open in China at the end of the year. Those are not all comp, but our comp hotels are probably 2/3 of that or something like that, maybe a little bit more than that. I think if you go back to 2003, we had 11 or 12 comp hotels. They would have been mostly in Hong Kong, probably, and then a couple of cities in China.

我認為第二點，如果你看看萬豪自己的故事，我們——我們提到過，到今年年底，我們在中國將有 375 家酒店開業。這些並非全部都是免費住宿，但我們提供的免費飯店住宿大概佔其中的三分之二左右，或許還要多一點。我想如果追溯到 2003 年，我們當時有 11 或 12 家免費飯店。他們當時可能主要在香港，然後可能去了中國大陸的幾個城市。

And so I don't think there's much that we can really take from that other than when SARS ended, it ended and people got back fairly quickly. That doesn't mean they get back the day after, but it does mean they get back within a month or 2 or 3.

所以我覺得除了SARS結束後，人們很快就恢復正常生活之外，我們真的無法從中吸取太多經驗教訓。這並不意味著他們第二天就能回來，但確實意味著他們會在一個月、兩個月或三個月內回來。

Roughly a quarter.

大約四分之一。

Yes, pretty quickly. But ultimately, that depends on people being able to look and say, "Yes, it looks like that's behind us." And so I think I think that's the comparison that's easiest to draw. It's logical, not just SARS and MERS, but other unfortunate events that have occurred tell us that travelers are pretty resilient. And one of the reason to be concerned is behind them, they're going to get back and get on the road.

是的，很快就到了。但歸根結底，這取決於人們能否審視並說：「是的，看來那段日子已經過去了。」所以我認為這是最容易進行的類比。合乎邏輯的是，不僅是SARS和MERS，其他不幸事件也表明，旅行者俱有相當強大的適應能力。令人擔憂的原因之一是，他們已經回到了原點，即將重新上路。

Your next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 公司的 David Katz。

Arne, great to hear you sounding well and I'm sure, looking fabulous. I wanted to just touch on the IMF dynamic, to your point, that at some point, this will end. How should we think about what happens to management contracts on the back end? Are there embedded triggers within some of those contracts that move or slide that, that can actually help you earn IMFs faster on the back end of this? How should we think about that?

阿恩，很高興聽到你身體狀況良好，我相信你看起來也棒極了。我想就國際貨幣基金組織的動態稍作探討，正如您所說，這種情況總有一天會結束。我們該如何看待管理合約在後期階段的處理方式？這些合約中是否包含一些可以移動或滑動這些合約的嵌入式觸發器，從而實際上可以幫助你在後期更快地獲得國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 的收益？我們該如何看待這個問題？

I think the short answer is no. I mean I think the -- it's a lovely thought. But the way these incentive fees work basically -- and Leeny, correct me if I'm wrong here, but they're mostly annual tests. The -- if there's an owner's priority, they're mostly fixed and they don't step up, which is a fabulous thing for us over the length of time. But similarly, they don't mostly step down. In fact, I don't know of a single contract in which an owner's priority would step down based on performance.

我認為簡而言之，答案是否定的。我的意思是，我覺得──這真是個美好的想法。但這些獎勵費用的運作方式基本上是這樣的——Leeny，如果我理解有誤請指正，但它們大多是年度測試。如果業主有優先權，那麼這些優先權大多是固定的，他們不會主動爭取，長遠來看，這對我們來說是一件好事。但同樣地，他們大多不會辭職。事實上，我不知道有哪份合約規定，所有者的優先權會根據業績而降低。

I think the -- probably the disappointing thing here is if you hypothesized that this was a 3-month issue in 2020 and of course, that's a total guess, but just use it for the sake of discussion. The test is still an annual test. And so the -- in the United States, particularly where we've got owners' priorities typically in managed hotels, the impact, if there is one, during those 3 months, will have some lasting impact on incentive fee earnings in 2020 but will have no impact in 2021. I think it's the way to think about it.

我認為——這裡最令人失望的可能是，如果你假設這是 2020 年持續 3 個月的問題，當然，這完全是猜測，但為了討論起見，就用這個假設吧。該測試仍然是每年一次。因此，在美國，尤其是在業主通常優先考慮飯店管理的情況下，這三個月的影響（如果有的話）將對 2020 年的激勵費用收入產生一些持久影響，但對 2021 年不會產生任何影響。我認為這是正確的思考方式。

If you go to Asia where typically, you don't have an owner's priority, we will not have probably the -- quite the hangover impact. So if business disappears in China for 3 months and then it bounces back and does its sort of normal fee, if you will, we'll lose 1/4 of the incentive fees we would otherwise earn. And so by the time you get to Q3 or Q4, we should be back to sort of a similar kind of pace as we've had in the past.

如果你去亞洲，那裡通常沒有老闆的優先權，我們可能不會有——相當大的宿醉影響。因此，如果中國市場的業務消失了 3 個月，然後又恢復正常，並支付了正常的費用，那麼我們將損失原本可以獲得的激勵費用的 1/4。因此，到了第三季或第四季，我們應該就能恢復到過去那種類似的節奏了。

So the only thing I'll add to that, David, is just to remember the reality that internationally, we earn 80% of our hotels' earned incentive fees in 2019, while in North America, it was 56%. So -- and these are very similar numbers to a year ago with a little bit lower number in North America because of the cost pressures and the low REVPAR.

所以，David，我唯一要補充的是，要記住這樣一個現實：2019 年，我們在國際上獲得了酒店應得獎勵費用的 80%，而在北美，這一比例為 56%。所以——這些數字與一年前的數字非常相似，北美地區的數字略低，因為成本壓力和較低的每間可供出租客房收入（REVPAR）。

And the other thing I'll mention is that it is the case in Asia Pacific that it's quite common that there is a slight increase in the amount of IMF as you increase your GOP margin. So it is the case that as you get fuller and fuller and a really robust RevPAR that you can be earning an incentive fee that is instead of 6%, it becomes 8%. And so there is the reality that as you are losing RevPAR, at first, it's a pretty dramatic drop. But then obviously, the closer you get to 0, you're down at a lower level of earning IMF. So there's less to lose.

我還要提一點，在亞太地區，隨著國民生產毛額成長，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的份額略有增加是很常見的現象。因此，隨著入住率越來越高，RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）越來越強勁，您獲得的獎勵金將從 6% 增加到 8%。因此，現實情況是，當您損失每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 時，起初會是相當大的降幅。但很顯然，越接近 0，你的收入水準就越低。所以沒什麼好失去的。

But Arne's point is the right one, that these are annual tests. So you got to really look at the end of the year, what you earned for the year and that will determine what you make.

但阿恩的觀點是正確的，這些都是年度測試。所以你得好好看看年底，看看你一年的收入，這將決定你的最終收入。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Bellisario with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Michael Bellisario 與 Baird 的對話。

Just kind of a two-parter. First, on Avendra proceeds, how much is left there to be allocated? And then kind of second, along the same lines on business interruption insurance, I know owners can get made whole. But is it possible for you guys to recoup any loss income? And then how might be Avendra proceeds be part of this to help you and your owners during this down period?

算是分成兩部分吧。首先，Avendra 的收益中還剩下多少可以分配？其次，就營業中斷保險而言，我知道業主可以獲得全額賠償。但你們有可能彌補任何收入損失嗎？那麼，Avendra的收益將如何幫助您和您的業主度過這段低迷時期？

So let's just kind of -- as a quick refresher on Avendra, when we sold Avendra, there was a gain of, call it, $650 million that we're going to use to offset costs that otherwise would have been charged to the owner. And I would say that we are roughly half the way through those monies.

那麼，讓我們快速回顧一下 Avendra 的情況。當我們出售 Avendra 時，我們獲得了大約 6.5 億美元的收益，我們將用這筆錢來抵消原本應該由所有者承擔的成本。我想說，我們已經用掉了大約一半的資金。

And again, as we think about all the different programs and things that we're doing, those are obviously a part of what we would expect going forward, that we would continue to use to offset cost that otherwise would get charged. But honestly, we do think of them as things that are kind of core to what we want to do for the hotel system. I don't think of them as really ones that we kind of use it to plug a hole. We've thought of them more as kind of ways to invest in the system.

再次強調，當我們思考我們正在進行的所有不同項目和活動時，這些顯然是我們未來預期的一部分，我們將繼續利用這些項目和活動來抵消原本會產生的費用。但說實話，我們確實認為它們是我們想為飯店系統做的事情的核心內容。我不認為它們是那種用來堵住漏洞的東西。我們更多地將它們視為對系統的一種投資方式。

And though, of course, it's great that we do have it and we can use it, I think at this point, we continue to expect that we will be able to use it to invest in the system.

當然，我們擁有並能夠使用它固然很好，但我認為在目前階段，我們仍然期望能夠利用它來投資該系統。

And then on business interruption insurance, I think the right assumption here is that there will be relatively few policies that are implicated by the coronavirus. We'll obviously watch that and make sure we study it. But my guess is neither the owners or Marriott are going to get substantial business interruption proceeds from this.

至於營業中斷保險，我認為正確的假設是，受冠狀病毒影響的保單相對較少。我們當然會密切關注，並確保認真研究。但我估計，無論是業主或萬豪酒店，都不會從中獲得實質的業務中斷賠償。

In Asia Pacific, most of the hotels procure their own, and so it will depend on the reading of each of those contracts, of what their insurance policies say. But we would not necessarily expect a big amount, at least in Asia Pacific.

在亞太地區，大多數飯店都是自己購買保險，因此最終取決於對每份合約的解讀，以及他們的保險單上是如何規定的。但我們並不認為會有很大數量，至少在亞太地區是如此。

Your next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay with RBC Capital.

你的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Wes Golladay。

I'm just hoping to learn a little bit more about the profile of the owner in Greater China. Are they capitalized to the point where they can absorb a prolonged closing of their hotels?

我只是想多了解這家公司在大中華區的老闆的背景。他們的資金是否足以承受飯店長期關閉的損失？

It's a good question. The -- of the 375 hotels that we had opened at year-end 2019, I know of only 1 that was not owned by a Chinese investor. Those investors are -- cover the gamut. I think there are many which are government-owned entities but not all. There are a number that are substantial real estate companies that do own hotels but also do residential development in the rest. And obviously, we've been in communication with owners continuously throughout the 6 or 7 weeks that we've been looking at this.

這是個好問題。截至 2019 年底，我們開設的 375 家飯店中，據我所知只有 1 家不是中國投資者擁有的。這些投資者涵蓋了各個領域。我認為其中有很多是國有企業，但並非全部。有許多實力雄厚的房地產公司不僅擁有飯店，還在其他地區進行住宅開發。顯然，在過去六、七週的調查過程中，我們一直與業主保持溝通。

We have had really no indication yet that there are owners under severe pressure. At the same time, when RevPAR is down 90%, it's a fair assumption that none of these hotels are producing positive cash flow to service debt or to do anything else. I think one of the advantages of the economic system that China has is the government is involved not just sometimes through the ownership with government-owned entities but on the lending side as well. And I think the government will have the tools in order to make sure that people will be able to navigate through this without foreclosures and without sort of significant long term consequences.

目前我們還沒有收到任何跡象顯示有業主面臨巨大壓力。同時，當每間可供出租客房收入下降 90% 時，可以合理推斷，這些飯店都沒有產生正現金流來償還債務或做任何其他事情。我認為中國經濟體制的優勢之一在於，政府不僅有時透過國營企業的股權參與其中，而且還參與貸款業務。我認為政府將有能力確保人們能夠順利度過難關，避免房屋被取消抵押贖回權，也不會造成嚴重的長期後果。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Kopelman with Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Kevin Kopelman 與 Cowen 的合作系列。

Great. I just had a quick follow-up on the coronavirus impact. So all the indications are that in the past week, the travel booking trends have gotten significantly worse. Understanding that it's only 1 week, could you give us more insight on what you're seeing in the U.S., in particular, in terms of bookings for future states over the past week?

偉大的。我剛剛快速跟進了一下新冠病毒疫情的影響。種種跡象表明，過去一周，旅行預訂趨勢明顯惡化。考慮到只有一周時間，您能否更詳細地介紹您在美國，特別是過去一周內未來各州的預訂情況？

Yes. And I -- again, as we mentioned before, we were picking up a few anecdotes, but we're not really picking up yet in the data anything that we can really, what, measure or predict from. I think it is brand-new. Obviously, you had, over the weekend, stories that we're focused on these other markets outside of China but also outside of the United States and Italy and South Korea and the like.

是的。而且，正如我們之前提到的，我們收集了一些軼事，但我們還沒有真正從數據中發現任何我們可以真正衡量或預測的東西。我認為它是全新的。顯然，在周末期間，我們看到了一些報導，表明我們專注於中國以外的其他市場，以及美國、義大利、韓國等國家以外的市場。

You've got the President for the first time speaking about it late last night. And so the U.S.-focused discussion is obviously brand-new. The numbers of cases in the United States are still tiny. We were at a -- my wife and I were at a dinner in Washington last night with a bunch of folks who are obviously asking questions around this. And we don't have a single case in the Greater Washington area. And that's the case in most markets across the United States.

昨晚深夜，總統首次就此事發表了演說。因此，以美國為中心的討論顯然是全新的。美國的病例數仍然很少。昨晚我和妻子在華盛頓參加一場晚宴，與一群顯然對此事充滿疑問的人共進晚餐。大華盛頓地區目前還沒有一例確診病例。美國大部分市場的情況都是如此。

So I think it's way too early to expect that the data is going to be very revealing to us. But at the same time, when you get the President doing a press conference on it, that's, by itself, not a good thing, and it will cause more travels to stop and think about it. And again, it's one of the reasons I would say that the $25 million a month number that we've used as a yardstick is probably, at this point, a bit light, but we don't know what other number to give you.

所以我認為現在就指望這些數據能為我們帶來很多啟示還為時過早。但同時，當總統就此事召開記者會時，這本身就不是一件好事，它會讓更多的旅行者停下來思考這個問題。再次強調，這也是我認為我們目前使用的每月 2500 萬美元這個衡量標準可能有點低的原因之一，但我們也不知道還能給出什麼其他數字。

That's really helpful. And then if I could ask about something completely different. The RPI improvements, what do you think -- could you call out kind of the key drivers there that are allowing you to see that RPI improvement year-over-year, what the outlook for that is going forward? And then if there's any way you could give us, just the actual RPI level that you finished up 2019?

這真的很有幫助。然後，我可以問一個完全不同的問題嗎？對於 RPI 的改善，您認為——您能否指出一些關鍵驅動因素，說明是什麼讓您看到 RPI 逐年改善，以及未來的前景如何？如果您能提供您在 2019 年結束時的實際 RPI 水平，那就太好了？

Yes. The -- I mean loyalty -- the loyalty program is, I think, the thing that we would call out the most. We talked about penetration, generally. We gave you the -- both North America numbers and the global numbers for penetration, again, what percentage of total rooms is driven by both paid and redeemed nights.

是的。忠誠度——我的意思是忠誠度——我認為，忠誠度計畫是我們最應該強調的。我們主要討論了市場滲透率。我們再次向你們提供了北美和全球滲透率數據，即付費和兌換的晚數分別佔總房間數的百分比。

It won't surprise you to know that the penetration numbers are higher in the U.S. just because our brand is better known. We've been doing business here for longer. And it's higher in select brand hotels than it would be in full-service hotels because you've got less group business and the hotels are overwhelmingly driven by transient business.

您可能不會感到驚訝，因為我們的品牌在美國的知名度更高。我們在這裡做生意的時間更長。而且，精選品牌酒店的收費比全服務酒店高，因為精選品牌酒店的團體業務較少，主要依靠散客業務。

But even when you look at all those differences, you see very healthy increases in penetration outside the U.S. and in full-service hotels and in resort destinations, all of which goes back to the loyalty thing. We're not going to publish today what our index is by brand or even by segment. I will tell you that I get monthly a global index report. And the cover of that report has got a chart that starts in 2014 and ends essentially with the current month that's being reported. And the -- and that summary chart breaks it down by 3 segments, luxury being one segment, upper upscale being one segment and essentially upscale or the select brands being another segment. And every one of those 3 is at an all-time high compared to that -- the other numbers on that 2014 chart, and they continue to go up.

但即使考慮到所有這些差異，你也會發現美國以外地區、全方位服務酒店和度假勝地的滲透率都有非常健康的增長，而這一切都與忠誠度有關。我們今天不會公佈按品牌甚至按細分市場劃分的指數。我每月都會收到一份全球指數報告。報告的封面有一張圖表，從 2014 年開始，基本上到報告的當月結束。總結圖表將其分為 3 個部分，奢侈品是一個部分，高端品牌是一個部分，而精選品牌或高檔品牌是另一個部分。與 2014 年圖表上的其他數字相比，這 3 個數字都達到了歷史最高水平，而且還在繼續上升。

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

你的下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

First, curious -- throughout the course of 2019, a number of players in travel alluded to changes that Google was making, which resulted in less free organic traffic, coming to their travel websites and a greater reliance on paid as Google changes up how they monetize things with their Google hotel ads product. I was curious if you have seen any impact in your business at all from that in the second half of '19 and into '20.

首先，令人好奇的是——在 2019 年，許多旅遊業的參與者都暗示谷歌正在進行一些改變，導致其旅遊網站的免費自然流量減少，並且由於谷歌改變了其通過谷歌酒店廣告產品實現盈利的方式，他們更加依賴付費廣告。我很好奇，在 2019 年下半年到 2020 年，您的業務是否受到了任何影響。

We're watching what Google is doing very, very closely. The -- certainly, if you look back over, I don't know, a 3- or 4-year period, we, too, have seen that the paid search volume coming out of Google has grown from what it was 3 or 4 years ago. We didn't see a significant move in the second half of 2019 for us.

我們正在密切關注谷歌的一舉一動。當然，如果你回顧過去三、四年的時間，我們也看到，Google的付費搜尋量比三、四年前有所增加。2019年下半年，我們沒有看到任何重大進展。

Now having said that, just as a reminder, we obviously don't like to pay for paid search if somebody is searching our brand. So imagine, for -- let's take a discussion that somebody's gone on Google and they've searched Marriott New York, we don't love to pay for that. And often, we don't -- usually, we don't pay for that because we think that person is looking for a Marriott hotel. And they're going to end up finding our site, whether it's through Google or whether they come in through some other path because they're focused on it. In the same way, if somebody goes on and searches Hyatt New York, we're also not likely to pay for that because that's a customer that is sadly, maybe, but nevertheless, focused on some other brand.

話雖如此，還是要提醒一下，如果有人搜尋我們的品牌，我們顯然不想為付費搜尋付費。想像一下，比如說，有人在谷歌上搜尋了紐約萬豪酒店，我們可不想為此付費。而且通常情況下，我們不會——通常情況下，我們不會為此付費，因為我們認為那個人想找的是萬豪酒店。他們最終都會找到我們的網站，無論是透過谷歌搜索，還是透過其他途徑，因為他們關注的就是我們的網站。同樣地，如果有人搜尋紐約凱悅酒店，我們也不太可能為此付費，因為很遺憾，這位顧客可能更關注其他品牌。

That is not necessarily the case in either instance for an OTA. An OTA is going to also be selling Marriott rooms or Hyatt rooms or other rooms. And if they can get somebody to come from Google to their site and collect commission associated with that, even if they're selling the room that, that customer seems to be looking at, that's going to go into their calculation in a way that's very different from ours.

但對於OTA來說，這兩種情況都不一定是如此。線上旅行社 (OTA) 也將銷售萬豪酒店客房、凱悅酒店客房或其他酒店客房。如果他們能讓某人透過谷歌造訪他們的網站並收取相關的佣金，即使他們賣的是顧客似乎正在瀏覽的房間，這也會以與我們截然不同的方式計入他們的收益計算中。

And so I think it's a long-winded way of saying that the first impact of changes by Google in their strategy are much more relevant to the OTAs than they are to somebody like us. But we are watching this very, very carefully. We've obviously got a good partnership with Google, and there's a lot of volume that comes through our digital channels. And we'll look for ways that we can use those tools to help us do what we want to do, which is particularly find customers who are not now in our loyalty ecosystem. Find a way to bring them into our ecosystem. And if we can do that in a way that is cost effective, we'll do it.

所以我覺得，說了這麼多其實就是想表達：Google策略的改變所帶來的第一個影響，對線上旅行社（OTA）來說，比對我們這樣的公司來說要重要得多。但我們正在非常非常密切地關注此事。我們顯然與Google建立了良好的合作關係，而且透過我們的數位管道獲得了大量的流量。我們將尋找利用這些工具來幫助我們實現目標的方法，特別是找到目前不在我們忠誠度生態系統中的客戶。找到一種方法將它們引入我們的生態系統。如果能以經濟有效的方式做到這一點，我們就會去做。

And unrelated follow-up, maybe I missed it. I don't think I heard anything about election year, what impact that could be, what you've seen in the last couple and maybe how it relates to group versus leisure versus transient.

還有一個無關的後續問題，可能是我錯過了。我好像沒聽到任何關於選舉年的事情，例如選舉年可能產生的影響，過去幾年你看到了什麼，以及它與群體、休閒和流動人口之間的關係。

So the experience we've had over decades is that in Washington, during the Presidential election year, that tends to be bad for transient demand. Having said that, the group bookings in Washington for 2020 are quite strong. And so we actually think Washington will perform reasonably well.

因此，我們幾十年來的經驗是，在華盛頓，總統選舉年往往不利於短期需求。話雖如此，2020 年華盛頓的團體預訂情況相當強勁。因此，我們認為華盛頓隊的表現應該會相當不錯。

The only other point to make is an obvious one, which is wherever the conventions are, they'll get a benefit from it. Where the conventions didn't occur -- well, none of these conventions obviously occurred last year. So those cities should help because there will be incremental demand. But we've got lots of politicians staying in our hotels in these various markets and we're glad to have them all.

唯一需要補充的一點也是顯而易見的，那就是無論在何處形成慣例，他們都會從中受益。去年這些大會顯然一個都沒舉行。因此，這些城市應該會有所幫助，因為需求會逐漸增加。但是，在這些不同的市場，有許多政界人士入住我們的飯店，我們很高興他們都能來。

Your final question comes from the line of Stuart Gordon with Bernstein.

你的最後一個問題源自於史都華·戈登與伯恩斯坦的對話。

Stuart Gordon actually from Berenberg. Just on the shareholder returns, how are you thinking just over how you'll phase these through the year given what's happening just now? And just a quick follow-up, could you break out the other fees between credit card fees and the other fee components within that bucket?

史都華·戈登實際上來自貝倫貝格銀行。就股東回報而言，鑑於目前的情況，您打算如何安排今年的股東回報計畫？最後再補充一點，您能否將信用卡手續費和其他費用組成部分分別列出來？

Sure, absolutely. So it's a careful balance. We really look to maximize the returns to shareholders when we've got excess capital. And we have a commitment to do that and we want to continue to do that. At the same time, we have the same commitment to maintain our strong credit rating. And from that standpoint, we need to be looking very carefully at both what's happening now and what we expect to be happening as we move forward through the year.

當然可以。所以這需要謹慎權衡。當我們擁有盈餘資本時，我們真正追求的是最大限度地提高股東回報。我們承諾會這樣做，而且我們希望繼續這樣做。同時，我們也同樣致力於維持我們良好的信用評級。從這個角度來看，我們需要非常仔細地審視現在正在發生的事情以及我們預計在今年接下來的時間裡將要發生的事情。

So we've given you our base case without any impact from corona, but -- the coronavirus. But Stu, to your question, we are going to, of course, have to take into consideration real life and that will impact how we have to think about share repurchase. But we're looking at everything we can on the cash side, on the expense side, on the fee side, et cetera, to continue to balance those 2 efforts. But they -- absolutely, as we continue to see what happens, if you assume my numbers were correct relative to $60 million of impact on the EBITDA line in Q1, that will have an impact on share repurchase for the year.

所以我們已經給出了沒有受到新冠病毒影響的基本情況，但是——新冠病毒。但Stu，對於你的問題，我們當然要考慮到現實情況，這將影響我們對股票回購的看法。但我們正在從現金、支出、費用等方面著手，努力平衡這兩項工作。但是，隨著我們繼續觀察事態發展，如果假設我的數字相對於第一季 EBITDA 6000 萬美元的影響是正確的，那麼這將對今年的股票回購產生影響。

And then as you think about the other question, which was on the credit card fees, yes, for the year, we had $410 million for credit card fees for the full year. The rest, you probably remember that we have time-share branding fees that roughly approximate $100 million. And then the rest is split between the residential branding fees as well as some other smaller categories and app and relicensing fees.

然後，當你思考另一個問題，也就是信用卡手續費的問題時，是的，全年信用卡手續費收入為 4.1 億美元。其餘部分，您可能還記得，我們​​有分時度假品牌推廣費，大約為 1 億美元。其餘部分則分配給住宅品牌推廣費以及其他一些較小的類別、應用程式和重新授權費用。

The way I would describe it going forward in 2020 is that group as a whole, we expect to grow up towards 10%. When I think about the credit card component of that, I would call that kind of mid-single digits, maybe around 6-ish percent.

展望 2020 年，我預期該群體整體將成長至 10%。如果考慮到信用卡的使用部分，我認為那大概是中等個位數，可能在 6% 左右。

All right. Thank you all very much. We appreciate your time and interest this morning. Get on the road, come stay with us.

好的。非常感謝大家。感謝您今天上午抽出時間並關注此事。出發吧，來我們這裡住一晚。

This does conclude today's conference call, you may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。