萬豪國際 (MAR) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to today's Marriott International's Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2020年第二季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Arne Sorenson to begin. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我很高興將電話交給阿恩·索倫森先生，由他開始通話。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter 2020 conference call. I hope everyone is safe and healthy during these difficult times. Joining me this morning are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Jackie Burka McConagha, our Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Vice President, Investor Relations.

各位早安，歡迎參加我們2020年第二季電話會議。希望大家在這段艱難時期都能平安健康。今天早上和我一起出席的有：執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；高級副總裁兼投資者關係負責人 Jackie Burka McConagha；以及副總裁兼投資者關係負責人 Betsy Dahm。

I want to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

我想提醒大家，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，正如我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的評論和新聞稿中的聲明僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

Please also note that unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR and occupancy comments reflect system-wide constant-currency year-over-year changes and include hotels temporarily closed due to COVID-19. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

另請注意，除非另有說明，我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 和入住率評論反映了系統範圍內按固定匯率計算的同比變化，並且包括因 COVID-19 而暫時關閉的酒店。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及我們今天演講中提到的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

The lodging industry continues to be profoundly impacted by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and the current operating environment remains quite challenging. Second quarter worldwide RevPAR was down 84% while April RevPAR fell 90%, the toughest year-over-year comparison on record. Demand has risen steadily since then.

新冠肺炎疫情對住宿業造成了持續的嚴重影響，目前的經營環境仍充滿挑戰。第二季全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 下降了 84%，其中 4 月份的 RevPAR 下降了 90%，創下有史以來最嚴峻的同比降幅。此後需求穩定成長。

RevPAR declined 85% in May, 78% in June and 70% in July. Many of our hotels that were temporarily closed due to COVID-19 have now reopened. Today, 9% of our global properties remain closed compared to more than 25% in April. Since April, occupancy levels have increased each month in every region around the world, albeit at varying rates. Global occupancy in July hit 31% for all hotels, increasing 19 percentage points from April. And occupancy in July for the hotels that were open for each of the last 4 months reached 39%, growing 23 percentage points over that period.

5 月每間可供出租客房收入下降了 85%，6 月下降了 78%，7 月下降了 70%。我們許多因新冠疫情而暫時關閉的酒店現在已經重新開放。目前，我們全球仍有 9% 的物業處於關閉狀態，而 4 月這一比例超過 25%。自四月以來，世界各地各個地區的入住率每月都在增長，儘管增長速度各不相同。7 月全球飯店入住率達 31%，比 4 月增加了 19 個百分點。過去四個月一直營業的飯店，7 月的入住率達到 39%，比去年同期成長了 23 個百分點。

There is still no visibility around when RevPAR could return to 2019 levels. However, the global industry trends experienced over the last couple of months give us confidence that people will continue to increase their travel. We are optimistic that the second quarter will mark the bottom and that the worst is now behind us.

目前仍無法確定RevPAR何時才能恢復到2019年的水準。然而，過去幾個月的全球產業趨勢讓我們相信，人們的旅行將會繼續增加。我們樂觀地認為第二季將是觸底的時期，最糟糕的時期已經過去。

Greater China, which represents 9% of our rooms, over 90% of which are managed, is leading the recovery and has seen rapid improvements in occupancy and new bookings. With the virus mostly contained at this point, many domestic travel restrictions have been lifted, and the number of daily passenger domestic flights is now around 80% of pre-COVID levels. While leisure and drive-to destinations led the initial recovery, it is encouraging to see business transient as well as group also picking up nicely. Occupancy levels in Greater China have reached 60%, up significantly from the single-digit levels in mid-February and much closer to the 70% we saw at the same time last year.

大中華區占我們客房總數的 9%，其中超過 90% 為託管客房，該地區正引領復甦，入住率和新預訂量均迅速提高。目前病毒已基本控制，許多國內旅行限制已解除，國內每日客運航班數量已恢復到新冠疫情前水準的 80% 左右。雖然休閒旅遊和自駕遊引領了最初的復甦，但令人鼓舞的是，商務旅行和團體旅遊也正在穩步回暖。大中華區的入住率已達 60%，較 2 月中旬的個位數水準大幅上升，更接近去年同期的 70%。

RevPAR has followed a similar trajectory. After declining 85% year-over-year in February, RevPAR in Greater China improved to down 34% in July, averaging over 10 percentage points of improvement per month. At the current rate of recovery and assuming no wide resurgence of COVID-19, the Greater China market could approach 2019 occupancy and RevPAR levels as early as next year, even assuming limited international guests. In 2019, nearly 80% of its room nights were sourced from guests within China.

RevPAR 也呈現出類似的走勢。2 月大中華區每間可供出租客房收入年減 85% 後，7 月降幅收窄至 34%，平均每月改善超過 10 個百分點。以目前的復甦速度，並假設新冠肺炎疫情不會大規模反彈，即使國際遊客數量有限，大中華區市場的入住率和每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）最早可能在明年就接近 2019 年的水平。2019 年，該公司近 80% 的客房預訂量來自中國境內的客人。

Trends in the rest of Asia Pacific are improving at a slower pace as countries are in various phases of reopening and as certain borders remain closed. But the recovery of travel in Greater China demonstrates the resiliency of demand once there is a sense that the virus is better under control and restrictions can be safely lifted.

亞太其他地區的經濟趨勢改善速度較慢，因為各國正處於不同階段的重新開放，而且某些邊境仍關閉。但大中華區旅遊業的復甦表明，一旦人們感覺病毒得到了更好的控制，限制措施可以安全解除，需求就會展現出強大的韌性。

In North America, 96% of our hotels are now open. We are experiencing a steady recovery across all chain scales, although the rate of recovery within markets and by hotel type has varied tremendously. In 2019, domestic travelers accounted for 95% of North America room nights, a benefit in the current environment. Leisure demand has been strong in resort areas as well as in secondary and tertiary drive-to markets. Not surprisingly, our extended-stay hotels have experienced the fastest pace of recovery.

在北美，我們96%的酒店現已重新開業。我們看到所有連鎖飯店規模都在穩定復甦，儘管不同市場和不同飯店類型的復甦速度差異很大。2019 年，國內遊客佔北美飯店客房夜數的 95%，這在當前環境下是一個優勢。度假區以及二、三線自駕遊市場的休閒需求一直很強勁。不出所料，我們的長期住宿飯店復甦速度最快。

New bookings in North America have been building nicely, led by near-term leisure transient reservations. Despite the recent surge in cases in some states, consumers are increasing their travel. While U.S. airline passenger traffic is still well below last year's levels, the number of air travelers in the last 2 weeks of July has more than triple -- was more than triple that of the first 2 weeks of May. And system-wide North America RevPAR continued to improve in July to a year-over-year decline of 69%, which is 7 percentage points better than June. Historically, leisure has made up roughly 1/3 of our total room nights in North America.

北美地區的新預訂量一直在穩步增長，其中近期休閒短途旅行預訂量增長尤為顯著。儘管一些州的病例最近激增，但消費者仍在增加出行。儘管美國航空客運量仍遠低於去年同期水平，但 7 月最後兩週的航空旅客人數是 5 月前兩週的三倍多。7 月份，北美地區整體的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 繼續改善，年減 69%，比 6 月份好 7 個百分點。從歷史上看，休閒旅遊約佔北美地區總客房夜數的 1/3。

The more interesting part of the statistic is that the monthly variance in that percentage is actually quite small. In 2019, the estimated proportion from leisure was around 36% during the summer and only declined to 32% in September and October. We expect that solid leisure demand will continue through Labor Day in North America and could continue into the fall as employers and schools alike operate remotely.

更有趣的是，該百分比的月度波動幅度實際上非常小。2019 年，夏季休閒支出佔比估計約 36%，9 月和 10 月僅下降至 32%。我們預計，北美地區的休閒需求將持續強勁，直至勞動節，隨著雇主和學校遠距辦公，這種強勁勢頭可能會延續到秋季。

Business transient and group demand in North America, while lagging, are showing very early signs of improvement. For now, the group bookings outside of those associated with our caregiver and first responder programs tend to be mostly smaller ones, such as weddings or travel sports teams.

北美地區的商務旅客和團體需求雖然滯後，但已顯現出非常早期的改善跡象。目前，除與我們的護理人員和急救人員計劃相關的團體預訂外，其他團體預訂大多規模較小，例如婚禮或旅行運動隊。

Our Europe, Middle East and Africa region or EMEA and our Caribbean and Latin America region or CALA posted the lowest occupancy levels and steepest RevPAR declines in the second quarter. Severe restrictions following rising rates of COVID cases in many countries, combined with the much higher dependence on international travelers in these regions, have suppressed demand in these regions. In 2019, the percentage of room nights from international travelers was around 40% in Europe, 50% in the Middle East and Africa and 60% in CALA.

第二季度，我們的歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）以及加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區（CALA）的入住率最低，每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）下降幅度最大。許多國家新冠病例激增，採取了嚴格的限制措施，再加上這些地區對國際旅客的依賴程度較高，抑制了這些地區的需求。2019 年，國際旅客入住飯店客房夜數佔歐洲飯店客房夜數的 40% 左右，佔中東和非洲飯店客房夜數的 50% 左右，佔 CALA 飯店客房夜數的 60% 左右。

75% of our hotels in EMEA and 70% in CALA were closed for most of the second quarter. Trends in both regions have started to improve recently as the prevalence of cases drops and border restrictions ease. Many of our hotels in these regions are welcoming guests again, with under 30% remaining temporarily closed.

在第二季大部分時間裡，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的飯店有 75% 處於關閉狀態，在拉丁美洲和加勒比地區有 70% 的飯店處於關閉狀態。最近，隨著病例數下降和邊境限制放寬，這兩個地區的疫情趨勢都開始好轉。這些地區的許多飯店已經重新迎接客人，只有不到 30% 的飯店暫時關閉。

On the development front, owners are showing great interest in our brands, with Greater China again out in front. Greater China contributed nearly 1/3 of deal signings in the first half of the year, with the entire Asia Pacific region accounting for roughly half of all signings. Owners in the region are taking a long-term view on the market. Year-to-date, we have signed 30% more deals in Asia Pacific than we did in the first half of 2019.

在發展方面，業主對我們的品牌表現出了極大的興趣，其中大中華區再次走在前面。今年上半年，大中華區貢獻了近三分之一的交易簽約，整個亞太地區約佔所有簽約交易的一半。該地區的業主對市場持長期看法。今年迄今，我們在亞太地區簽署的交易比 2019 年上半年增加了 30%。

The pace of signings is not as robust in other regions around the world, largely due to the lackluster lending environment and owner uncertainty. We canceled one of our monthly deal approval meetings in the spring, which reduced our signings year-to-date, but we are having productive conversations with owners and franchisees who want to move forward. Some are hoping to see lower construction costs in the weaker economic environment for new builds while others are interested in conversions to our brands.

世界其他地區的簽約速度並不強勁，這主要是由於貸款環境不佳和所有者的不確定性。今年春天，我們取消了每月交易審批會議，導致今年迄今的簽約數量減少，但我們正在與希望推進合作的業主和加盟商進行富有成效的對話。有些人希望在經濟環境疲軟的情況下，新建房屋的建造成本能夠降低，而有些人則對改用我們的品牌感興趣。

Our pipeline totaled approximately 510,000 rooms at the end of the second quarter, with over 230,000 rooms under construction or around 45%. The pipeline is 1% lower than at the end of the first quarter, with slowed signings and a few more projects than usual put on hold.

截至第二季末，我們的在建客房總數約為 51 萬間，其中超過 23 萬間客房正在建設中，約佔 45%。由於簽約速度放緩，以及比往常多一些項目被擱置，目前項目儲備比第一季末減少了 1%。

While construction activity has resumed in most parts of the world, we still expect some openings will be delayed due to slower construction time lines and supply chain issues related to COVID-19. There is uncertainty surrounding future worldwide rooms growth, but given current trends, we could see net rooms growth between 2% and 3% in 2020. The final result will depend a great deal on the way the pandemic plays out around the world in the remainder of the year.

雖然世界大部分地區的建築活動已經恢復，但我們仍然預計，由於與 COVID-19 相關的施工進度放緩和供應鏈問題，一些項目的開放將會延遲。未來全球客房成長存在不確定性，但根據目前的趨勢，我們預計 2020 年淨客房成長率將在 2% 至 3% 之間。最終結果將很大程度上取決於今年剩餘時間內疫情在全球的發展。

Over the last several months, we have enhanced our liquidity position and materially reduced our cost structures at both the corporate and property level. We are in constant dialogue with our owners and franchisees and are working together to navigate these extremely challenging times. As demand returns, we are adjusting our operating protocols and ramping up our business in a thoughtful way.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們提高了流動性狀況，並在公司層級和物業層面大幅降低了成本結構。我們與業主和加盟商保持著密切的溝通，共同努力應對這些極具挑戰性的時期。隨著需求回升，我們正在調整營運流程，並以審慎的方式逐步擴大業務規模。

First and foremost, we are focused on the health and safety of our associates and guests and on communicating these important efforts. We continue to enhance our cleanliness guidelines to meet the health and safety challenges presented by COVID-19. We have mandated that all hotels have electrostatic sprayers to help quickly disinfect public areas, and all properties must submit a monthly commitment to clean certification. And we are increasingly leveraging technologies like mobile check-in, mobile key and mobile chat between guests and hotel associates to reduce face-to-face interactions while amplifying operational efficiencies. Additionally, we've announced that guests are required to wear face coverings in the public spaces of our hotels in the Americas, a policy that is also currently in place for associates globally.

首先，我們最關注的是員工和顧客的健康與安全，並致力於宣傳這些重要措施。我們將繼續加強清潔標準，以應對新冠肺炎疫情帶來的健康和安全挑戰。我們已強制要求所有飯店配備靜電噴霧器，以便快速消毒公共區域，並且所有飯店都必須每月提交清潔認證承諾書。我們正在越來越多地利用行動辦理入住、行動鑰匙和客人與飯店員工之間的行動聊天等技術，以減少面對面的互動，同時提高營運效率。此外，我們已宣布，美洲地區酒店的客人必須在公共區域佩戴口罩，該政策目前也適用於全球員工。

We are stepping up our marketing efforts around the globe as demand improves. Each region is carefully monitoring social, economic and travel trends and implementing a phased-in approach based on local consumer sentiment and travel intent.

隨著市場需求的成長，我們正在加大全球的行銷力道。每個地區都在密切關注社會、經濟和旅遊趨勢，並根據當地消費者的情緒和旅遊意願實施分階段的方法。

With over 143 million members globally, Marriott Bonvoy, our award-winning global loyalty program, underpins all our marketing strategies. We remain focused on engaging our members with targeted e-mail campaigns and various promotions such as points accelerators on our co-brand credit cards for gas, dining and groceries; gift card discounts; and our current Bonvoy boutiques sweepstakes for items like bedding and robes. For Elite members, we have extended their status through early 2022 and in June, credited their accounts with a onetime deposit of Elite night credits, allowing them to reach the next tier faster.

萬豪旅享家是我們屢獲殊榮的全球忠誠度計劃，在全球擁有超過 1.43 億會員，是我們所有行銷策​​略的基礎。我們將繼續專注於透過有針對性的電子郵件行銷活動和各種促銷活動來吸引我們的會員，例如聯名信用卡在加油、餐飲和雜貨方面的積分加速；禮品卡折扣；以及我們目前正在進行的 Bonvoy 精品店抽獎活動，獎品包括床上用品和浴袍等。對於精英會員，我們已將其會員資格延長至 2022 年初，並在 6 月向其帳戶一次性存入了精英會員晚數積分，使他們能夠更快地達到下一個級別。

Before I turn the call over to Leeny, I must take a moment to say how proud I am of our incredible team of associates around the world. This has been a time of tremendous stress and uncertainty, yet our teams continue to impress and inspire me.

在將電話交給 Leeny 之前，我必須花一點時間表達我對我們遍布全球的傑出員工團隊的自豪之情。這段時間充滿了巨大的壓力和不確定性，但我們的團隊不斷給我留下深刻的印象，並激勵著我。

I also want to comment on the current social justice movements. As we said in our recent statement, we stand against racism. We believe that racism must be eradicated. Our company believes in equality, justice and putting people first no matter what they look like, where they come from, what their abilities are or who they love. My management team and I are deeply committed to building on our historic commitment to diversity and to do more to champion diversity, equality and inclusion, both within our company and within the broader community.

我還想談談當前的社會正義運動。正如我們在最近的聲明中所說，我們反對種族主義。我們認為必須根除種族主義。我們公司秉持平等、公正的原則，始終把人放在第一位，無論他們的外表、出身、能力或性取向如何。我和我的管理團隊致力於鞏固我們長期以來對多元化的承諾，並在公司內部和更廣泛的社區中，為倡導多元化、平等和包容做出更多努力。

In closing, while this was by far the most challenging quarter in the history of our company, I am pleased with our progress. I believe we can look forward to a brighter future for travel and for Marriott. With our unparalleled portfolio of 30 global brands, superior loyalty programs, strong liquidity position and the best team in the business, I am optimistic about the trajectory of our business in the months and years ahead.

最後，雖然這是我們公司歷史上最具挑戰性的季度，但我對我們的進展感到滿意。我相信旅遊業和萬豪酒店都會迎來更美好的未來。憑藉我們無與倫比的 30 個全球品牌組合、卓越的忠誠度計劃、強勁的流動性以及業內最優秀的團隊，我對我們公司未來幾個月和幾年的發展軌跡充滿信心。

And now Leeny, who has ably led our finance team to buttress our liquidity and to set Marriott up with the strength it needs to survive this crisis, will talk more about our financials. Leeny?

現在，李尼先生將進一步談談我們的財務狀況。他出色地領導了我們的財務團隊，增強了我們的流動性，並為萬豪酒店集團奠定了生存這場危機所需的實力。莉妮？

Thank you, Arne. And I hope all of you and your families are staying well. I also want to express my appreciation to all our associates around the globe for their dedication during these unprecedented times.

謝謝你，阿恩。希望你們和家人都身體健康。我還要感謝全球所有同事在這前所未有的時期所展現的奉獻精神。

This morning, I will review our second quarter results and current trends. There's still too much uncertainty around the timing and trajectory of the recovery to give P&L guidance for the rest of the year, but I will provide an update on the monthly cash burn model that I shared with you on our first quarter call.

今天上午，我將回顧我們第二季的業績和當前趨勢。目前復甦的時間和軌跡仍存在太多不確定性，因此無法對今年剩餘時間的損益情況做出預測，但我會更新我在第一季電話會議上與大家分享的每月現金消耗模型。

As Arne noted, second quarter global RevPAR was down 84%. Second quarter gross fee revenues totaled $234 million, comprised of $40 million from base management fees, $182 million from franchise fees and $12 million from incentive management fees or IMFs. In the first quarter, we did not record any IMFs given the significant uncertainty regarding hotel-level full year performance. In the second quarter, we had more information and could better predict whether hotel performance will warrant IMF recognition for the full year, and as such, we recorded IMF fees.

正如 Arne 指出的那樣，第二季全球每間可供出租客房收入下降了 84%。第二季總費用收入為 2.34 億美元，其中包括 4,000 萬美元的基本管理費、1.82 億美元的特許經營費和 1,200 萬美元的激勵管理費或 IMF。第一季度，由於飯店層級全年業績存在很大的不確定性，我們沒有記錄任何 IMF。第二季度，我們掌握了更多信息，可以更好地預測酒店業績是否符合 IMF 全年確認的條件，因此，我們記錄了 IMF 費用。

The majority of IMFs recognized in the second quarter were at hotels in Asia Pacific, where there is generally no owner's priority, with Greater China particularly strong. Almost 65% of Greater China's hotels had positive gross operating profit in the second quarter due to increasing demand and our ability to control costs. In 2019, over 1/3 of our incentive fees were from Asia Pacific.

第二季確認的國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）主要集中在亞太地區的飯店，這些地區通常沒有業主優先權，其中大中華區表現特別強勁。由於需求增加以及我們控製成本的能力，大中華區近 65% 的飯店在第二季實現了正的毛營業利潤。2019 年，我們超過三分之一的激勵費用來自亞太地區。

Within franchise fees, unsurprisingly, our non-RevPAR-related fees were the most resilient, totaling $107 million in the second quarter, down 27% from a year ago. Credit card fees declined due to lower card spend versus last year while total fees from timeshare and residential branding were relatively flat.

不出所料，在特許經營費中，與RevPAR無關的費用最具韌性，第二季總額為1.07億美元，比去年同期下降了27%。由於信用卡消費額較去年下降，信用卡手續費也隨之下降，而分時度假和住宅品牌推廣的總費用則相對持平。

Second quarter G&A improved by 22% year-over-year and by 35% excluding bad debt. Bad debt expense is primarily based on our estimate of future credit losses and is not a reflection of current cash losses. The significant reduction in net administrative expenses demonstrates the many steps we've had to take to reduce our cost structure to align with the decline in revenues in this low RevPAR environment. These steps have included furloughs, reductions in executive pay and reduced work weeks throughout the organization.

第二季一般及行政費用較去年同期成長 22%，若不計壞帳則較去年同期成長 35%。壞帳費用主要基於我們對未來信用損失的估計，並不反映當前的現金損失。淨管理費用的大幅下降表明，為了應對當前低RevPAR環境下的收入下降，我們不得不採取許多措施來降低成本結構。這些措施包括讓員工暫時休假、降低高階主管薪酬以及縮短整個組織的工作週。

We reported positive adjusted EBITDA of $61 million, which includes $36 million of bad debt expense. We were pleased with our lack of cash burn during the second quarter, especially in light of the 84% decline in REVPAR. The additional monthly fees we earned moving from our 90% RevPAR decline cash burn model to the actual 84% RevPAR decline were better than the $2 million per point per month estimate we gave a quarter ago as a result of incentive management fees and a bit better credit card fees.

我們公佈的調整後 EBITDA 為 6,100 萬美元，其中包括 3,600 萬美元的壞帳支出。我們對第二季現金消耗量不大感到滿意，尤其是在每間可供出租客房收入下降 84% 的情況下。由於激勵管理費和略微提高的信用卡費用，我們從 90% 的 RevPAR 下降現金消耗模型轉向實際 84% 的 RevPAR 下降模型所獲得的額外月費，比我們一個季度前給出的每點每月 200 萬美元的估計要好。

Favorable timing of investment spending and cash taxes during the quarter was also helpful. Lastly, strong working capital management and loyalty cash inflows contributed to our overall positive cash position.

本季投資支出和現金稅收的有利時機也起到了幫助作用。最後，穩健的營運資金管理和忠誠客戶現金流入為我們整體的正現金狀況做出了貢獻。

Given that many of our programs and services are funded by revenue-based charges, we are billing the hotels vastly less than a year ago. We have had to dramatically cut our costs to match this decline in revenues while still providing the required services. We've been able to reduce current breakeven profitability rates at our hotels around the world by 3 to 5 percentage points of occupancy to help our owners preserve cash.

鑑於我們的許多項目和服務都是透過按收入收費來資助的，我們向酒店收取的費用比一年前大幅減少。為了因應收入下降，我們不得不大幅削減成本，同時也要繼續提供必要的服務。我們已將全球酒店的當前損益平衡盈利率降低了 3 到 5 個百分點的入住率，以幫助業主節省現金。

From a working capital perspective, owners and franchisees are largely finding enough liquidity to pay these lower bills, albeit more slowly than usual. We continue to work with those owners and franchisees that are challenged to pay on time and for many, have set up short-term payment plans. So far this year, we have had only a few hotels going to foreclosure. But our management and related agreements protect us, and historically, we have held on to most franchise agreements in that situation as well.

從營運資金的角度來看，業主和加盟商大多都能找到足夠的流動資金來支付這些較低的帳單，儘管速度比平常慢一些。我們繼續與那些難以按時付款的業主和加盟商合作，並為許多人制定了短期付款計劃。今年到目前為止，只有少數幾家酒店被取消抵押贖回權。但是我們的管理協議和相關協議保護了我們，而且從歷史上看，在這種情況下，我們也一直堅持履行大多數特許經營協議。

The cash burn scenario that I'll outline today is just one scenario and not an estimate of actual results. Please remember that assumptions for certain line items are not paid out evenly throughout the year, so are averages over a number of months this year. Our overall cash flow is comprised of those at the corporate level and those associated with our net cost reimbursement. The model I walked you through a quarter ago assumed a year-over-year global RevPAR decline of 90%, as we experienced in April. It included monthly averages for several categories of spending like taxes and investment spending and yielded total net cash outflows of around $145 million to $150 million per month.

我今天要概述的現金消耗情景只是其中一種情景，並非實際結果的估計。請注意，某些項目的假設款項並非全年平均支付，而是以今年幾個月的平均值支付。我們的整體現金流包括公司層面的現金流量和與淨成本補償相關的現金流量。一個季度前我向你們介紹的模型假設全球每間可供出租客房收入年減 90%，正如我們在 4 月所經歷的那樣。其中包括稅收和投資支出等幾類支出的月平均值，得出每月淨現金流出總額約為 1.45 億美元至 1.5 億美元。

We've updated this analysis assuming a worldwide RevPAR decline of 70%, as we experienced in July. The revised model results in monthly cash outflows of about $85 million, a significant improvement of around $65 million a month, 45% better than the prior scenario. Roughly 3/4 of the improvement is at the corporate cash flow level, largely as a result of additional fees due to higher RevPAR.

我們更新了這項分析，假設全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 下降 70%，正如我們在 7 月所經歷的那樣。修訂後的模型每月現金流出約為 8,500 萬美元，比之前的方案每月減少了約 6,500 萬美元，改善了 45%。大約 3/4 的改善發生在公司現金流量層面，這主要是由於 RevPAR 提高帶來的額外費用。

In today's scenario, total monthly fees could be about $110 million per month versus the $60 million to $65 million in fees assumed -- assuming RevPAR down 90%. The impact of a 1-point change in RevPAR in our revised model would be roughly $2 million to $2.5 million of fees a month, though the sensitivity is not completely linear given IMFs. Improving RevPAR is likely to coincide with higher credit card fees as well.

在今天的情況下，每月總費用可能約為 1.1 億美元，而先前假設的費用為 6,000 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元——假設每間可供出租客房收入下降 90%。在我們修訂後的模型中，RevPAR 每變化 1 個百分點，每月費用大約會增加 200 萬至 250 萬美元，儘管考慮到國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 的影響，這種敏感性並不完全是線性的。RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）的提高很可能也會導致信用卡手續費的上漲。

The monthly cash flows -- cash outflows at the corporate level include cash G&A costs, investment spending, cash interest, cash tax payments and cash outflows for our owned and leased hotels. Despite the revised RevPAR assumption, the total outflow from these items has not changed meaningfully from the $155 million we described a quarter ago, although there are some key timing differences to point out. Cash taxes in 2020 will primarily be paid in the third quarter while cash interest will be higher in the fourth quarter given the schedule of interest payments for our senior notes.

公司層級的每月現金流－現金流出包括現金一般及行政費用、投資支出、現金利息、現金稅款支付以及我們自有和租賃飯店的現金流出。儘管修訂了每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的假設，但這些項目的總支出與我們一個季度前描述的 1.55 億美元相比並沒有發生實質性變化，儘管有一些關鍵的時間差異需要指出。2020 年的現金稅款主要將在第三季支付，而鑑於我們優先票據的利息支付安排，第四季的現金利息將會更高。

Total investment spending for the full year is expected to be roughly $400 million to $450 million, with higher outlays in the second half of the year versus the first half. The lumpiness of these cash flows will naturally impact our cash balances in the third and fourth quarters. All in all, this 70% RevPAR decline scenario yields an average total corporate cash burn of roughly $45 million per month, about half of the $90 million to $95 million presented in the scenario a quarter ago. While the absolute cash burn numbers in this model still reflect a tough operating environment, the sizable improvement demonstrates the strong cash flow characteristics inherent in our asset-light business model.

預計全年總投資支出約 4 億至 4.5 億美元，下半年支出將高於上半年。這些現金流的波動性自然會影響我們第三季和第四季的現金餘額。總而言之，在 RevPAR 下降 70% 的情況下，企業平均每月現金消耗總額約為 4,500 萬美元，約為一個季度前情境中提出的 9,000 萬至 9,500 萬美元的一半。雖然該模型中的絕對現金消耗數字仍然反映出嚴峻的經營環境，但顯著的改善表明了我們輕資產業務模式固有的強勁現金流特徵。

The remaining 1/3 of the cash burn improvement comes from our net cost reimbursement. Today's scenario yields cash outflows of about $40 million a month for this category versus outflows of $55 million in the original scenario. The improvement is primarily due to better matched timing of our cash outlays and reimbursements as well as continued collections of receivables. This is partially offset by slightly lower cash contributions from loyalty, given redemptions are expected to pick up as occupancy improves.

剩餘的 1/3 現金消耗改善來自我們的淨成本補償。根據目前的情況，該類別的現金流出約為每月 4000 萬美元，而原先的情況則為每月 5500 萬美元。這項改善主要歸功於現金支出和報銷時間的更好地匹配，以及應收帳款的持續回收。由於預計隨著入住率的提高，積分兌換量將會增加，因此忠誠度帶來的現金貢獻略有下降，這在一定程度上抵消了上述影響。

Note that this model does not currently include any severance and other payments associated with our global restructuring initiatives. It's extremely difficult to have to undertake these efforts, which include a voluntary transition program announced in the second quarter as well as additional job eliminations. The extent of the decline in our business and our expectation that it will take time for demand to return fully require these measures.

請注意，該模型目前不包括與我們的全球重組計劃相關的任何遣散費和其他款項。採取這些措施極為困難，其中包括第二季宣布的自願過渡計畫以及進一步裁員。鑑於我們業務下滑的程度，以及我們預計需求需要一段時間才能完全恢復，我們不得不採取這些措施。

We currently expect the total cash charges related to our above property restructuring activities around $125 million to $145 million. In the second quarter, we recognized $26 million of costs related to these efforts, of which $6 million was in restructuring and merger-related charges on our P&L and $20 million was included in reimbursed expenses. We're still working through the details, but currently expect these restructuring efforts will reduce total above property controllable costs, which includes both corporate G&A and program and services costs by roughly 25%.

我們目前預計與上述物業重組活動相關的現金支出總額約為 1.25 億美元至 1.45 億美元。第二季度，我們確認了與這些努力相關的 2,600 萬美元成本，其中 600 萬美元為損益表中的重組和合併相關費用，2,000 萬美元為已報銷費用。我們仍在研究細節，但目前預計這些重組措施將使除財產以外的可控總成本（包括公司一般管理費用和項目及服務成本）減少約 25%。

We'll know more about the specific impact on G&A as we work through the 2021 budget process. We're also developing restructuring plans to achieve cost savings specific to each of our company-operated properties, including our owned leased hotels. We expect to implement these plans over the next couple of quarters.

隨著 2021 年預算編制工作的推進，我們將更清楚地了解對一般及行政費用的具體影響。我們也正在製定重組計劃，以實現公司旗下每家自營物業（包括我們擁有的租賃酒店）的具體成本節約。我們預計將在未來幾季內實施這些計劃。

In addition to focusing on preserving cash, we've substantially boosted our liquidity and extended our average debt maturities. During the quarter, we raised $2.6 billion of long-term debt and $920 million of cash through amendments to our credit card deals. As part of our liability management, the $1 billion raised in June was largely used to tender and retire a portion of our near-term debt maturities.

除了專注於保留現金外，我們還大幅提高了流動性，並延長了平均債務到期日。本季度，我們透過修改信用卡協議籌集了 26 億美元的長期債務和 9.2 億美元的現金。作為我們負債管理的一部分，6 月籌集的 10 億美元主要用於償還部分近期到期的債務。

At quarter end, our cash and cash equivalents on hand was around $2.3 billion. Adding that cash to the undrawn capacity of our revolver of approximately $2.9 billion and deducting around $800 million of commercial paper outstanding, our net liquidity was approximately $4.4 billion at the end of the second quarter. We believe our strong liquidity position, cash flow from operations and access to capital markets comfortably position us to meet our short- and long-term obligations.

截至季末，我們手頭上的現金及現金等價物約為23億美元。加上我們約 29 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度，再減去約 8 億美元的未償商業票據，截至第二季末，我們的淨流動性約為 44 億美元。我們相信，我們強勁的流動性狀況、經營活動產生的現金流以及進入資本市場的管道，使我們能夠輕鬆履行短期和長期義務。

While there is still a lot of uncertainty and there are many factors impacting our business outside of our control, we are very pleased with the progress we have made in the areas we can control. Many of the steps we have taken have been painful, but the company is in a solid position to navigate through these challenging times. The global recovery may take longer than any of us would like, but the strong recovery in Greater China and trends in the rest of the world show the resilience of lodging demand and make us hopeful about the future. We all look forward to traveling again and to welcoming all of you at our hotels. Thank you for your time this morning.

儘管目前仍有許多不確定因素，並且有許多我們無法控制的因素影響著我們的業務，但我們對我們在可控領域的進展感到非常滿意。我們採取的許多措施都很痛苦，但公司目前處於穩固的地位，能夠渡過這些充滿挑戰的時期。全球經濟復甦可能比我們任何人希望的都要漫長，但大中華區的強勁復甦和世界其他地區的趨勢表明了住宿需求的韌性，也讓我們對未來充滿希望。我們都非常期待再次旅行，並歡迎各位入住我們的酒店。感謝您今天上午抽出時間。

And we'll now open the line for questions.

現在我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Arne, I found fascinating your comments about the new signings in Greater China. Can you talk about what's driving that? And can you talk about maybe the construction cost environment there? And the new signings, how do they compare versus a year ago in that geography?

Arne，你關於大中華區新簽約球員的評論讓我很感興趣。你能談談是什麼原因導致這種情況嗎？您能否談談那裡的建築成本環境？那麼，新簽約的球員與一年前在同一地區的球員相比情況如何？

Yes. So the statistic on the last part of that question, we put in the prepared remarks. So our signings are up over last year about 30%, so -- in Asia Pacific, all driven by China.

是的。所以，關於該問題最後一部分的統計數據，我們已經寫進了準備好的評論中。因此，我們的簽約量比去年增加了約 30%，這主要得益於中國在亞太地區的推動。

And I think the thing to keep in mind in China, one is about the markets generally. Obviously, the recovery is well apace. I think it's easy to be in China and look at COVID-19 as being not a thing of history quite yet because that probably won't happen until we get a vaccine and obviously there are events that come up most recently in Beijing where there need to be some reinsertion of restrictions, but those actions get done quickly. And by and large, the Chinese are back to traveling again. And so I think you've got much greater confidence about the future in the markets generally.

我認為在中國需要記住的一點是，首先是關於整個市場。顯然，復甦進展順利。我認為身處中國很容易把新冠肺炎疫情看作還不是歷史，因為這可能要等到疫苗問世後才會成為歷史。而且，最近北京發生的一些事件顯然需要重新實施一些限制措施，但這些措施都能迅速落實。總的來說，中國人又開始旅行了。因此，我認為你對市場的未來整體更有信心了。

And I think, secondly, the Marriott has done extraordinarily well in China. With the combination with Starwood that we did a few years ago, I think our position in the luxury and upper-upscale space, if you use the nomenclature from the United States, is very, very strong with dominant RevPAR index position. And I think we end up with a tremendous share of the new development in those segments as well as increasing growth, of course, in the moderate tier with Courtyard, Fairfield and the like, which is moving sort of -- and I think in a way, you can contrast that with the United States. You could see our total pipeline is down 1%.

其次，我認為萬豪酒店在中國取得了非常優異的成績。幾年前我們與喜達屋酒店集團合併後，我認為我們在豪華和高端市場（如果使用美國的術語）的地位非常非常穩固，RevPAR 指數佔據主導地位。我認為，我們最終在這些細分市場的新開發項目中佔據了巨大的份額，當然，在中等檔次的 Courtyard、Fairfield 等酒店也實現了增長，而且這種增長勢頭正在逐漸增強——我認為在某種程度上，你可以將此與美國的情況進行對比。您可以看到我們的總訂單量下降了 1%。

And I think if you look at the U.S. and Europe by comparison, we're just much earlier in reacting to COVID-19. And I think given the uncertainty about what the path is out of this, I think people are confident it will get behind us ultimately, and we'll get back to a different place. But how long it takes, how the lenders respond, what happens with the supply chain, all of those questions are still very much unanswered, I think, in the United States.

我認為，如果與美國和歐洲相比，我們在應對 COVID-19 方面反應得更早。鑑於目前還不清楚未來的道路會如何，我認為人們相信這一切最終都會過去，我們會回到一個不同的地方。但是，在美國，需要多長時間才能完成，貸款方會如何反應，供應鏈會發生什麼變化，所有這些問題仍然沒有得到解答。

And can you talk about -- within the pipeline, obviously, it was down a little bit sequentially in China, obviously, added -- on a gross rooms basis. How much did you revisit and just come to the conclusion that the likelihood is less today than a few months ago or 6 months ago? Or do you think those discussions accelerate from here? How do you view that?

你能談談——在管道內部，顯然，在中國，它顯然按房間總數計算，環比略有下降嗎？你重新審視了多少內容，才得出結論：如今發生這種情況的可能性比幾個月前或6個月前還要小？還是你認為這些討論會從此加速進行？你對此有何看法？

Well, I think the -- a couple of things to keep in mind here. One is that, by and large, just as it's too early to answer questions about exactly what the shape of the recovery looks like in the United States, it's too early to kill projects in the United States. So what we are not seeing, on the bright side, folks say we've abandoned this project and decided not to do it. I think on the other hand, if you're not financed, you don't have your debt financing or if you don't have all your equity raised for a project even if you've been working on it for a number of quarters or maybe a year or 2, you're probably not able to complete those financing challenges as well as you would have been before COVID-19, to state the obvious. And even if the financing is done, if construction hasn't already started, it well might be that you're sitting there saying, "Well, let's watch it here now that -- over the next number of months and see what happens."

嗯，我覺得這裡有幾點要注意。一方面，總的來說，正如現在回答美國經濟復甦的具體形態還為時過早一樣，現在就終止美國的某些項目也為時過早。所以，從好的方面來看，我們沒有看到的是，有人說我們已經放棄了這個項目，決定不再做了。另一方面，我認為，如果你沒有資金，沒有債務融資，或者沒有為一個項目籌集到全部股權，即使你已經為此努力了好幾個季度甚至一兩年，那麼你可能也無法像 COVID-19 疫情之前那樣順利地完成這些融資挑戰，這是顯而易見的。即使融資已經完成，但如果建設還沒有開始，你很可能會坐在那裡說：“好吧，讓我們看看接下來的幾個月會發生什麼。”

We have told you before that, in April, I think, we canceled our hotel development committee meetings and process in the United States. It seemed to be a, what -- inappropriate may be the wrong word, but an odd a time, I suppose, to be bringing in deals that we couldn't really underwrite in a way to know that they were the kind of high probability we would want in order to add to the pipeline. And to some extent, our partners couldn't really evaluate them in the same way. And so I think this is a place we watch.

我們之前已經告訴過你們，大概在四月份，我們取消了在美國的飯店開發委員會會議和相關流程。當時的情況似乎有點……用「不合適」可能不太恰當，但我想，這確實有點奇怪，因為我們無法真正評估這些交易是否具有我們想要的高機率，從而將其納入我們的業務範圍。在某種程度上，我們的合作夥伴無法以同樣的方式對他們進行評估。所以我認為這是我們應該關注的地方。

Now the -- I think as recovery builds, as we collectively get more confidence about COVID-19 starting to move behind us, and we can obviously talk more about that in this call, I think we'll see folks who see long-term projects that still make sense, enhanced probably by reduction in costs associated with construction costs and other development efforts. And we'll probably start to move forward, but it's going to take a while for that clarity to reach the pipeline.

現在——我認為隨著經濟復甦的推進，隨著我們對 COVID-19 疫情逐漸過去越來越有信心（我們顯然可以在這次電話會議中更多地討論這個問題），我認為我們會看到一些人認為長期項目仍然有意義，而且隨著與建築成本和其他開發工作相關的成本降低，這些項目可能會得到加強。我們可能會開始前進，但要讓這種清晰的思路傳達到流程中，還需要一段時間。

Our next question comes from the line of Robin Farley of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

Great. Two questions. One is -- on the SG&A reductions that you outlined for this year, how sustainable is that into next year and forward?

偉大的。兩個問題。第一個問題是－您概述的今年的銷售、一般及行政費用削減計劃，能否持續到明年及以後？

And then my other follow-up is the commentary on business versus leisure travel. I know you mentioned September and October still decent levels compared to the summer. Could you quantify how Q4 looks versus Q3 for that sort of business versus leisure travel mix?

接下來，我想談談商務旅行與休閒旅行的差異。我知道你提到九月和十月的氣溫水平仍然比夏季要好。能否量化一下第四季與第三季相比，商務旅行與休閒旅行這種組合方式的具體情況？

Yes. So why don't I take that -- the latter part first, and then, Leeny, why don't you jump in with the G&A and other spending. We were curious to go back and take a look at leisure in the fall versus in the summer because I think a lot of us have a little more caution around the corporate traveler than we do around the leisure traveler based on the first few months of recovery here. And somewhat gratifying, we see that leisure travel is only about 5 points lower in terms of total hotel mix in September and October than it is in the summer, going from 35% or 36% to 32%, something like that. And what that tells you is leisure may continue to be a pretty significant source of recovery even as we get past Labor Day and into the fall.

是的。那麼，我先來處理後半部分，然後，Leeny，你來處理一般管理費用和其他支出。我們很好奇想回頭看看秋季和夏季的休閒旅遊情況，因為我認為，根據這裡最初幾個月的復甦情況來看，我們很多人對商務旅客比對休閒旅客更加謹慎。令人欣慰的是，我們看到，9 月和 10 月休閒旅遊在酒店總佔比中僅比夏季低 5 個百分點左右，從 35% 或 36% 降至 32% 左右。這說明，即使過了勞動節，進入秋季，休閒活動可能仍然是人們恢復精力的重要途徑。

I think the corporate traveler has been interesting, too. We have watched segments over the course of the quarter. All of us in the industry, including Marriott, have talked about leisure being the strongest. But interestingly, special corporate is probably up 5 points in terms of RevPAR decline year-over-year in the last 2 months, just sort of looking at weekly numbers.

我覺得商務旅行者這個群體也很有趣。本季我們觀看了一些片段。包括萬豪酒店在內的業內人士都認為休閒產業是最強勁的成長點。但有趣的是，僅從每週數據來看，過去兩個月特殊企業客戶的每間可供出租客房收入較去年同期下降了 5 個百分點。

Our guess is that, that is driven by business travel in -- what, in the Midwest more, in smaller companies, more than bigger companies, in aspects of business which are less probably dependent on flying. There is still frustration to me that when we too often see big, big companies, they're making decisions about keeping offices closed for as much as the next year, frustrating to us because, in a sense, that's just sort of withdrawing from the economy. And while all of us need to make decisions that protect our people and make sure that we're not putting people out in risky environments before it's ready, there is absolutely no reason for us to be making decisions about what offices look like or what travel looks like in the second quarter of 2021, for example.

我們猜測，這主要是由商務旅行驅動的——尤其是在中西部地區，小型公司比大型公司更頻繁地進行商務旅行，而這些商務旅行涉及的業務領域不太可能依賴飛行。令我感到沮喪的是，我們經常看到一些大公司決定將辦公室關閉長達一年之久，這讓我們感到沮喪，因為從某種意義上說，這無異於退出經濟活動。雖然我們都需要做出保護員工的決定，確保在條件成熟之前不會將員工置於危險的環境中，但我們絕對沒有理由在 2021 年第二季度就決定辦公室的佈局或出行方式。

In any event, I think the way of putting this is that so far in the recovery, every segment has gotten better every month, albeit with leisure and drive-to being the strongest. We see government business up modestly. We see special corporate business up modestly. We basically see that folks are increasingly willing to step out and travel a bit more.

總之，我認為這樣表述是，到目前為止，復甦的每個部分每個月都在好轉，儘管休閒和駕車出行最為強勁。我們看到政府業務略有成長。我們看到特殊企業業務略有成長。我們看到，人們越來越願意走出去，多出去走走。

So with that, Leeny, maybe you want to take the G&A question.

那麼，Leeny，或許你想回答一下管理費用問題。

Sure, sure. And I'm going to tag on one other thing, Robin, I think you'd find interesting, which is that, remember that November and December typically actually sees the pop-up back up to more summer-like levels for leisure, if you remember how a lot of people do their travel in November and December. So there, again, that kind of goes to the same point.

當然，當然。羅賓，我還要補充一點，我想你會感興趣的，那就是，如果你還記得很多人在十一月和十二月是如何旅行的，就會知道十一月和十二月通常是休閒旅遊旺季，休閒旅遊活動會恢復到更像夏季的水平。所以，這一點又回到了原點。

On G&A, you've clearly seen just substantial moves that we've made this year in really battening down the hatches and making sure that we're putting ourselves in a position to deal with the decline in revenues. What we've done with the work over the past few months is to really be thinking more broadly about restructuring the company to move forward, knowing that it needs to be sustainable and knowing that it needs to reflect the fact that it's going to take beyond '21 at least to return to 2019 revenue levels.

在一般及行政費用方面，您已經清楚地看到，我們今年採取了實質性的措施，真正加強了應對措施，確保我們能夠應對收入下降的情況。過去幾個月，我們所做的工作是更廣泛地思考如何重組公司以向前發展，因為我們知道這需要可持續發展，並且需要反映出至少要到 2021 年以後才能恢復到 2019 年的收入水平。

So in that regard, when you think about -- kind of broadly speaking, if you remember back last quarter, and I talked about all the reimbursables, a bunch of them were pass-throughs, but there were about $4 billion of our reimbursables that are around delivering the programs and services to all of our hotels around the world. And then obviously, you've got G&A on top of that. And that is the very large pot of costs that we have gone after to try to restructure and put ourselves in a good position going forward. And that's where -- I think 25% reduction in that full set of costs is what we're expecting.

所以在這方面，如果你大致想想——如果你還記得上個季度，我談到了所有可報銷款項，其中很多都是轉嫁款項，但我們大約有 40 億美元的可報銷款項用於向我們世界各地的所有酒店提供項目和服務。當然，除此之外還有管理費用。這就是我們為了重組並使自己在未來處於良好地位而著手解決的一大筆成本。因此，我認為我們期望所有成本都能降低 25%。

The details about exactly where that falls relative to G&A, we will work through, through the budgeting process, so I can't give you a specific number. I think for the rest of this year, as you know, we've taken dramatic steps this year, whether you call it reduced executive pay, et cetera. So I think for the rest of this year, you're going to continue to see these really dramatically low levels. But giving you kind of sustainable forward numbers, I think we'll work through that, but I would expect them to be quite substantial.

至於這筆費用在一般及行政費用中的具體佔比，我們將在預算編制過程中逐步確定，所以我無法給出一個具體的數字。我認為，正如你所知，今年剩下的時間裡，我們將採取重大措施，無論你稱之為降低高階主管薪酬等等。所以我認為今年剩下的時間裡，你還會看到這些極低的水準繼續維持下去。但要給出一些可持續的未來數字，我認為我們會解決這個問題，但我預計這些數字會相當可觀。

Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的托馬斯艾倫。

So Arne, about 3 weeks ago, you were quoted in the press as saying you were less optimistic than 30 days prior. Can I ask you that question again? How do you feel now?

所以，阿恩，大約三週前，你在媒體上表示，你不如30天前那麼樂觀了。我可以再問你一遍嗎？你現在感覺如何？

It's a fair question. The -- I guess on some level, I'm -- it depends whether you're thinking about the virus or you're thinking about lodging recovery, travel recovery. I am no more optimistic about the virus than I was a month ago, and that's what caused me a month ago or so to say I'm less optimistic than I was a month before that. I am, however, more optimistic about the recovery of travel and the recovery of our business.

這是一個很合理的問題。——我想在某種程度上，這取決於你考慮的是病毒本身，還是住宿業的復甦、旅遊業的復甦。我對病毒的樂觀程度並不比一個月前高，而這正是我在一個月前左右說我比上個月更不樂觀的原因。不過，我對旅遊業的復甦和我們業務的復甦持更樂觀的態度。

And I think if you read the news every day, which we all do, it's sort of obvious why that's the case. The virus numbers are frustratingly high, particularly in the United States, and they remain high. And it is hard to look across the country and see the kind of, what, strategy that we'd like to see to have confidence that we can put this thing behind us sooner rather than later.

我認為，如果你每天都看新聞（我們都會看新聞），就會明白為什麼會這樣。病毒感染人數居高不下，尤其是在美國，而且仍居高不下，令人沮喪。放眼全國，很難看到我們希望看到的那種策略，才能讓我們有信心盡快擺脫這件事。

Why am I more optimistic about our business? Well, I think if you look at the July numbers as a whole, and we've put some of those in the press release as well as the prepared script, it shows a gratifying resilience of American travelers, American consumers, notwithstanding the high virus numbers, to get back up. And so 1st of July, this virus resurges a little bit. We, of course, immediately have July 4 weekend, which is positive because of its leisure-intensive travel aspect. And we see a little bit of a pause maybe in the days after July 4. But as the month continues, we go back to trend essentially and see occupancy build in each week by 1 point or 1.5 points compared to the prior week. And we end up with July being about 5 points better than June in the U.S. occupancy context.

我為什麼對我們的業務比較樂觀？我認為，如果你整體來看七月份的數據（我們在新聞稿和準備好的稿件中也提到了其中一些數據），就會發現儘管病毒感染人數居高不下，但美國旅行者和消費者展現出了令人欣慰的韌性，正在努力恢復。於是，7月1日，這種病毒略有反彈。當然，緊接著就是7月4日週末，這很好，因為屆時會有大量的休閒旅遊活動。我們看到，7 月 4 日之後幾天可能會出現短暫的停滯。但隨著本月的進行，我們基本上恢復了先前的趨勢，每週入住率都會比前一周增加 1 個百分點或 1.5 個百分點。最終，7 月的美國飯店入住率比 6 月高出約 5 個百分點。

And so that tells, I think, us that notwithstanding the frustration around the virus numbers, the American traveler and consumer and I think, increasingly, the business traveler, too, will say, "You know what, we got to get back and live our life. I got to get back -- I'd like to get back to work. I maybe can't get back to the office depending on where I go to the office." Many of you are in New York, which, of course, has got its own unique set of skills. And I'd just remind all of you, don't assume the United States as a whole has got the same dynamic working as New York does.

因此，我認為這告訴我們，儘管人們對病毒感染人數感到沮喪，但美國旅行者和消費者，以及我認為越來越多的商務旅行者也會說：“你知道嗎，我們必須回去生活。”我得回去了——我想回去工作。我可能無法返回辦公室，這取決於我去哪裡上班。 「你們很多人都在紐約，當然，紐約有其獨特的技能要求。我還要提醒大家，不要以為整個美國的情況都跟紐約一樣。

New York is less dependent on people driving to work. It is much more concentrated in terms of elevator traffic and the like. It's obviously had high virus numbers, particularly early in the crisis. You get to much of the rest of the country and people still commute to work by car. They tend to work in smaller buildings with less challenge in terms of being able to be there safely. And I think they're more inclined to be stepping back to work and stepping back towards normal life. So that's what makes me more optimistic than I was a month ago.

紐約人對開車上班的依賴程度較低。從電梯客流量等方面來看，這裡要集中得多。很明顯，該地區的病毒感染人數很高，尤其是在疫情初期。你去到全國其他大部分地區，會發現人們仍然開車上下班。他們往往在較小的建築物內工作，在安全方面面臨的挑戰也較小。我認為他們更傾向於重返工作崗位，回歸正常生活。所以，這讓我比一個月前更樂觀了。

And just as a follow-up, are you more optimistic around your net unit growth as you were a quarter ago?

最後再補充一點，您對淨銷售成長的樂觀程度是否比上個季度更高？

About the same, I think. I think it is highly likely that we will see. And a bunch of these new projects take longer to get to opening than we thought before COVID-19. I -- we mentioned this in one of the earlier questions. I think it's still hard to predict with certainty how much longer those things are going to take, but I think we'd be foolish to think that these projects are going to open as quickly as they would have before.

我覺得差不多。我認為我們很有可能會看到這種情況。而且，許多新項目所需的時間比我們在新冠疫情爆發前預想的要長。我——我們在之前的問題中提到過這一點。我認為現在還很難準確預測這些事情還需要多久，但如果我們認為這些項目會像以前一樣迅速開放，那就太愚蠢了。

We will have some increasing opportunities to offset that in the conversion space. And we've got conversations that are up in the conversion space. I would say there, too, it's a little early for conversions to actually start moving. When you look at prior economic cycles, conversion volume tends to step up in weaker environments, but it tends to step up with transactions stepping up. And by and large, while there are increasing number of hotels that are out there under some pressure, we haven't seen many transactions take place yet. And I think as we do, we'll see our conversion adds step up as well.

我們將有越來越多的機會在轉換率領域抵消這種影響。我們正在就轉換率問題展開對話。我也認為，現在轉換率真正開始上升還為時過早。從以往的經濟週期來看，轉換率往往會在經濟疲軟的環境下上升，但也會隨著交易量的增加而上升。總的來說，雖然越來越多的酒店面臨壓力，但我們還沒有看到很多交易發生。我認為隨著我們這樣做，我們的轉換率也會隨之提高。

Our next question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

I was just wondering -- Arne, maybe to stick with a little bit of the same theme. In the prepared remarks, you mentioned just in general the business traveler outlook maybe being a little bit more positive. I think you said for both business travel and group. Just any kind of more specificity you could give around what you might be seeing? Is it really that drive-to piece? Any certain markets or areas? And particularly, your thoughts on, obviously, the domestic piece of that would be helpful.

我只是在想──阿恩，或許可以稍微延續這個主題。在事先準備好的發言稿中，您提到商務旅客的整體前景可能略微樂觀一些。我想你指的是商務旅行和團體旅行。您能否更具體地描述一下您所看到的情況？真的是那段駕車路線嗎？是否有特定的市場或地區？尤其想聽聽您對其中國內部分的看法，這當然會很有幫助。

Yes. So looking at the U.S. for a second, and let's make sure we don't oversell this. I want to make sure I get my data. So I mentioned that special corporate is up 5 points in the last 8 weeks. But when you look at RevPAR for special corporate, it's gone from minus 85% 8 weeks ago to minus 79% last week.

是的。所以，我們先來看看美國，但我們也要確保不要誇大其詞。我想確保我能收到我的數據。我之前提到過，特殊企業在過去 8 週內上漲了 5 個百分點。但如果你看一下企業客戶的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)，你會發現它已經從 8 週前的 -85% 下降到上週的 -79%。

So you're still at numbers which are monumentally negative. And by comparison, if you look at retail, for example, which is where a lot of leisure is going to land, some corporate will land there too, it's obviously the sort of rack rate business, we've seen a 15-point improvement compared to that 5-point improvement in special corporate. And the RevPAR associated with it is down 57% compared to the down 79% for special corporate.

所以你現在看到的仍然是極其糟糕的數字。相較之下，例如，如果你看看零售業，很多休閒活動都會落戶於此，一些企業活動也會落戶於此，這顯然是按市場價計算的業務，我們看到零售業的業績提高了 15 個百分點，而企業專項業務的業績僅提高了 5 個百分點。與此相關的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 下降了 57%，而特殊企業客戶的 RevPAR 則下降了 79%。

So there is improvement, to be sure. And it's measurable essentially week by week, and we would expect it to continue. But we would expect corporate to be slower in recovery than leisure has been so far and probably slower to recover in the fall, depending, of course, on the shape of the virus.

所以情況確實有改善。而且基本上每週都能衡量出來，我們預期這種情況會持續下去。但我們預期企業復甦的速度會比休閒娛樂產業迄今的復甦速度慢，而且秋季的復甦速度可能也會更慢，當然，這取決於病毒的傳播情況。

I'm struck always -- we've got a -- we live in Washington, D.C. area, where we're headquartered, obviously. And I've got 3 kids who live in New York. I've got one that lives in Washington. We have a place on the Chesapeake Bay, where we have spent significant portions of the pandemic. And it's interesting to see the different rhythms. So out in the county seat, out here where you've got lots of small businesses that are operating, they're all back to work. You can see their surface parking lots are, by and large, as busy as they've ever been before.

我總是感到震驚——我們住在華盛頓特區附近，我們的總部也設在那裡，這很正常。我有三個孩子，他們都住在紐約。我有一個朋友住在華盛頓。我們在切薩皮克灣邊有一處房產，疫情期間我們大部分時間都待在那裡。觀察不同的節奏也很有趣。所以在縣城，這裡有很多小企業都在運營，他們都復工了。你可以看到，他們的地面停車場總體上和以前一樣繁忙。

And the more you get into the central Washington, the more you see quiet. And I think that is a function both of some restrictions locally, but I think it is a function of you get greater conservatism, you get greater reliance on public transportation or other higher risk tools, I suppose, than you do in the smaller markets and the smaller cities. And as a consequence, I think we'll see business travel steadily continue to improve.

越深入華盛頓市中心，就越能感受到寧靜。我認為這既與當地的一些限制有關，也與在較小的市場和較小的城市中，人們更加保守、更加依賴公共交通或其他高風險工具有關。因此，我認為商務旅行將會持續穩定改善。

I would think, absent some unanticipated thing with the virus or some calendar event, we'll see that -- not just leisure, but we'll see that business travel improves every week as we go through the fall. But it will be a little bit slower coming back. And it's going to be slowest in the places where the population concentration is highest and where the companies are most conservative.

我認為，除非病毒或日曆上出現一些意想不到的情況，否則我們會看到——不僅是休閒旅行，而且隨著秋季的到來，商務旅行也會每週都有所改善。但恢復速度會慢一些。人口最集中、企業最保守的地方，發展速度也會最慢。

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes of Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

A question on what you might expect for permanent hotel closures. What percent of your system just might not be around in a year or 2? And then a follow-up on that is, we noticed the EDITION Times Square closed really quickly once COVID hit. I'm wondering what was -- why so quick for that one.

關於飯店永久關閉可能帶來的後果，您有什麼疑問？你的系統中有多少百分比的組件可能在一兩年內就不存在了？此外，我們也注意到，新冠疫情爆發後，時代廣場 EDITION 飯店很快就關閉了。我想知道這是怎麼回事——為什麼這麼快就發生了。

Leeny, you want to take that?

莉妮，你想拿那個嗎？

Yes. I'll start. And then, Arne, feel free to jump in. So obviously, this is all going to take some time. I think what you are seeing so far, quite frankly, is our deletions are below average. If you look at where we were in the second quarter and the first quarter, it's below kind of even the 1% to 1.5% that we guided in normal times. Obviously though, it's really going to depend, to some extent, on how long the virus persists and in which areas and to what extent and then, obviously, the owner's ability to get through that.

是的。我先來。然後，阿恩，你隨時可以加入討論。很顯然，這一切都需要一些時間。坦白說，我認為目前來看，我們的刪除率低於平均值。如果你看看我們第二季和第一季的情況，你會發現它甚至低於我們在正常情況下預期的 1% 到 1.5% 的目標。但很顯然，這在某種程度上取決於病毒持續的時間、傳播的地區和傳播程度，以及，很顯然，還取決於主人能否度過難關。

So I can't give you a specific sort of estimate. But I'll also say that, so far, we've seen really, really strong capabilities on the part of the owners to be able to find access to the liquidity they need to keep the hotels going. And the banks have shown a clear willingness to kind of essentially press pause for a while. And when you think about kind of the depth of what we've seen, to have really only a very few hotels already in foreclosure, that I think demonstrates the fact that everybody wants to try to see their way through this.

所以我無法給你一個具體的估價。但我還要說，到目前為止，我們已經看到業主們展現了非常強大的能力，能夠獲得維持飯店營運所需的流動資金。銀行已經表現出明顯的意願，願意暫時按下暫停鍵。當你考慮到我們所看到的局面有多嚴重時，你會發現實際上只有極少數酒店已經進入止贖程序，我認為這表明每個人都想努力渡過難關。

Now we clearly are going to see a bunch of foreclosures through all of this, but that doesn't necessarily mean the hotels close. I think in many cases, what happens is the banks want to preserve the value of the asset, in which case keeping the brand on it is the best way to do that and we'll do so. And the EDITION is a great example, as you've described, where the lenders have stepped in. And I think you could actually see that hotel reopen, that you saw lots of urban full-service hotels close temporarily to kind of stop and reassess the situation, worked really hard to figure out what the right occupancy breakeven is to be open or not open. And I think that you're seeing more and more of them open up.

現在很明顯，我們將會看到大量的房屋止贖，但這並不一定意味著酒店會倒閉。我認為在很多情況下，銀行都希望保住資產的價值，在這種情況下，保留品牌是最好的方法，我們也會這樣做。正如你所描述的，EDITION 就是一個很好的例子，說明貸款方是如何介入的。而且我認為你實際上可以看到酒店重新開業，你看到很多城市全方位服務酒店暫時關閉，以便停下來重新評估情況，並努力弄清楚開業或不開業的合適入住率盈虧平衡點是多少。我認為你會看到越來越多的人敞開心扉。

So it's obviously something that is very top of mind for us. We -- our North America team and all the teams around the world for that matter are spending just an inordinate amount of time working with the owners, whether it's on kind of short-term payment plans or looking at the FF&E reserves or making sure there's a conversation about our bills and working through the other bills like property insurance, et cetera. But again, I do think that for the moment, it's been a really good pattern for the hotels marching through it. But it does depend a lot on how long this lasts.

所以，這顯然是我們非常關注的問題。我們——我們的北美團隊以及世界各地的所有團隊——都花費了大量時間與業主合作，無論是製定短期付款計劃，還是查看家具、設備及用品儲備金，或是確保就我們的賬單進行溝通，以及處理其他賬單，如財產保險等等。但我仍然認為，就目前而言，對於正在經歷這一階段的酒店來說，這確實是一個非常好的模式。但這很大程度取決於這種情況能持續多久。

So the -- I think it's perfectly put, Leeny. The -- it's a bottom line. I would guess very, very, very few of our hotels around the world will not reopen if they're closed now or fail so profoundly that they close permanently.

所以——我覺得你的說法很貼切，Leeny。這是底線。我估計，如果現在關閉，我們世界各地的酒店中只有極少數能夠重新開業，或者因為經營慘淡而永久關閉。

Now in a portfolio of 7,500 hotels or 8,000 hotels, even before COVID-19 hits, there are a handful, maybe a couple of handfuls of hotels where profitability is not sufficient for the long-term viability of those hotels. And they're the ones, not surprisingly, that Leeny and team are working with first in this crisis because they were in trouble before. And when they're in trouble before and you end up with something like this, that's a double whammy.

如今，在 7500 家或 8000 家酒店的投資組合中，即使在 COVID-19 疫情爆發之前，也有少數幾家酒店的盈利能力不足以維持其長期生存。不出所料，Leeny 和他的團隊首先與他們合作應對這場危機，因為他們之前就遇到了麻煩。如果他們之前就遇到麻煩，最後又發生這樣的事，那真是雪上加霜。

I actually think that the EDITION Times Square is not the poster child for this. It's a brand-new hotel. It's a beautiful hotel. I'm optimistic actually that, that hotel will open and will be fine. But there are hotels in New York City that were not making money before COVID-19 hit. And some of those closed and some of them may not reopen because the cost burdens, whether that be labor costs or property taxes or the like, mean that they're -- the owners will not be able to look at them and say, "I can see a path towards profitability that I need to have in order to justify this."

我其實認為時代廣場 EDITION 酒店並不是這種現象的典型代表。這是一家全新的飯店。這是一家很漂亮的飯店。其實我很樂觀，覺得那家飯店會開業，而且會一切順利。但紐約市有一些飯店在新冠疫情爆發前就已經虧損了。有些店鋪已經關閉，有些可能不會重新開業，因為成本負擔，無論是勞動力成本還是房產稅等等，都意味著——店主們無法審視這些店鋪並說：“我能看到一條通往盈利的道路，而這條路是我需要的，才能證明這樣做是合理的。”

But I think those circumstances are globally and in terms of number of hotels or number of rooms, very, very unusual. And I think over time, while the owners are broadly under significant pressure, we've got to make sure that we continue to work with them to build back profitability, that the best use for this portfolio of assets -- real estate assets will be as hotels and that they will open and be open for the long term.

但我認為，就全球範圍以及酒店數量或房間數量而言，這些情況都非常非常不尋常。我認為隨著時間的推移，儘管業主普遍面臨巨大壓力，但我們必須確保繼續與他們合作，重建盈利能力，確保這批資產組合（房地產資產）的最佳用途是作為酒店，並確保它們能夠長期營業。

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛集團的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林。

This is a bit of a crystal ball question, but how do you think about the impact of work from home if the recent acceleration holds? And as part of this question, what has been the impact from work from home as you look at corporate relationships or end markets where these trends were the most pronounced over the past 5 to 10 years? And if you were to maybe even peel the onion back further, can you see whether those individual customers in those sectors have changed their leisure behavior along with it?

這有點像是預測未來，但如果近期的加速發展動能持續下去，您認為居家辦公會產生什麼影響？作為這個問題的一部分，您認為在過去 5 到 10 年裡，居家辦公對企業關係或終端市場產生了哪些影響？在哪些方面，居家辦公的趨勢最明顯？如果再深入分析，能否看出這些產業的個別顧客的休閒行為是否也隨之改變了？

Those are good questions. The last one, I don't think we've got data that tells us much yet. We've obviously got many business travelers particularly who are not back on the road yet, who are relying on remote work and/or technology tools in order to continue to work from home and to avoid travel.

這些都是很好的問題。最後一個問題，我認為我們目前還沒有太多數據可以說明問題。顯然，我們有很多商務旅行者還沒有恢復出差，他們依靠遠距辦公和/或技術工具繼續在家工作，避免出差。

I think the statements that you hear from folks frequently that we'll never go back to the office or we'll never go back to travel, I would take with a huge grain of salt. We've heard similar comments in each of the last 3 crises that we've been through, starting in the early '90s. Obviously, the technology has gotten better and better. But in 2001 and '02 and 2008 and '09, we heard the same theme, which is we don't need to go back to travel the way we've done before.

我認為，人們常說的「我們永遠不會再回到辦公室」或「我們永遠不會再出差」之類的說法，我建議大家對此持保留態度。從90年代初開始，我們經歷了過去三次危機，每次都聽到了類似的評論。顯然，這項技術已經越來越好了。但在 2001 年、2002 年、2008 年和 2009 年，我們聽到了同樣的論調，那就是我們不需要回到以前那種旅行方式。

A difference, to be sure, this time is the remote work kind of context. But you've all got a perspective about this. And I think what we've heard over the last month or so particularly is an increasing level of frustration about remote work, maybe particularly for folks who are relatively earlier in their career for whom training and networking and pursuit of opportunities depends much more on being present with somebody.

當然，這次的不同之處在於，這是遠距辦公的環境。但你們對此都有自己的看法。而且我認為，在過去一個月左右的時間裡，我們尤其聽到人們對遠距工作的沮喪情緒日益加劇，特別是對於那些職業生涯相對早期的人來說，他們的培訓、人脈拓展和尋求機會更多地依賴於與他人面對面交流。

But I think even for others, we have gotten to the point of after 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 months saying this is not -- it's not as good. We can't maintain our culture. We can't bring on new people. We can't train people. We can't invest in the kind of relationships we need to have with our business partners and with our customers. And I think increasingly, we will see folks say, "We've got to get back out there and get back at it."

但我認為即使對其他人來說，經過 2 個月、3 個月、4 個月或 5 個月的時間，我們也到了不得不承認「這不好」的地步。我們無法維繫我們的文化。我們不能招新人。我們無法培訓人員。我們無法投資與商業夥伴和客戶之間我們需要的那種關係。而且我認為，我們會越來越頻繁地看到人們說：“我們必須重新振作起來，繼續努力。”

And I do think there will be some more flexibility on whether we all go to the office every day when we're not traveling. And we'll see people that can sort of further mix, to some extent, work and leisure. I think there's a piece of that which will be good for us. So imagine that a year from now or 2 years from now, that week in Florida or week in the Caribbean which would have been 100% vacation and I could only do it once a year, I might be able to do twice a year now because I can go down there for a week and I can do a couple of days of work, concentrated or spread out over the work -- over the week and have my vacation. And to some extent, I think that blending of leisure and business could actually be an aid as much as a threat to travel. All things considered, we would say that we will build back and see the kind of levels of travel demand that we've had in the past.

而且我認為，當我們不出差的時候，對於是否每天都去辦公室上班會有更大的彈性。我們將會看到人們能夠在某種程度上進一步將工作和休閒結合在一起。我認為這其中有一部分對我們有利。所以想像一下，一年後或兩年後，原本我一年只能去一次佛羅裡達或加勒比海度假的那一周，現在我可能一年可以去兩次了，因為我可以去那裡待一周，然後工作幾天，集中精力或者分散在一周內完成工作，同時還能享受我的假期。在某種程度上，我認為休閒與商務的融合實際上可能既是旅遊業的助力，也是其威脅。綜合考慮各種因素，我們認為我們將逐步恢復並看到過去那種程度的旅行需求。

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·鮑威爾。

A question on group bookings. Have you seen medium planners start to book for the second half of next year or any part of next year? And how are you approaching booking business for your hotels just generally right now?

關於團體預約的問題。你有沒有看到一些中等規模的規劃者開始預訂明年下半年或明年任何部分的行程？那麼，您目前是如何應對飯店整體的預訂業務的呢？

So I think the most clear trend -- clearest trend which is obvious is that folks that had near-term group business deferred more than canceled, but basically put off those meetings. I think most of our group customers want to have those meetings, and so that's why they deferred instead of canceled. And of course, we've been interested in having them defer as opposed to cancel because we just see that business show up ultimately.

所以我認為最明顯的趨勢——最明顯的趨勢是，那些近期有團體業務的人，與其說是取消，不如說是推遲了這些會議。我認為我們集團的大多數客戶都希望舉行這些會議，所以他們才選擇延期而不是取消。當然，我們更希望他們推遲訂單而不是取消訂單，因為我們看到最終業務還是會恢復的。

And most of those folks are folks who are engaged in hosting those meetings, and they believe those meetings are valuable and want ultimately to have them. I think at the same time, we have seen new bookings for future periods be less robust than they would have been before because if they're not already committed to that meeting, they are probably a little less likely to commit until they've got some greater clarity about what the future looks like. What that means is that, so far, we've seen business on the books for 2021 not really canceling big numbers. We've seen group business on the books for 2020 cancel significantly, and I suspect we'll continue to see cancellations for business that has not been canceled yet -- or deferred yet, is the better word to use, for latter parts of 2020, probably continue to cancel until we get some greater confidence around the virus. And ultimately, when we get to the point where it looks like group meetings can be had safely, we will see both less deferral of business already on the books and we'll see new business come in.

而這些人大多是這些會議的組織者，他們認為這些會議很有價值，並且最終希望召開這些會議。我認為同時，我們也看到未來一段時間的新預訂量不如以前強勁，因為如果他們還沒有確定參加會議，那麼在他們對未來有更清晰的了解之前，他們可能不太願意做出決定。這意味著，到目前為止，我們看到2021年的業務訂單並沒有真正取消大量訂單。我們已經看到 2020 年的團體業務大幅取消，而且我懷疑，那些尚未取消（或更準確地說是尚未延期）的業務，在 2020 年下半年也可能會繼續取消，直到我們對病毒有更大的信心為止。最終，當看起來可以安全地舉行小組會議時，我們將看到已簽訂合約的業務延期減少，同時也看到新業務的出現。

I'd give you 1 statistic. I think group business on the books for 2021 compared to what would have been on the books in 2020 a year ago is about down 10%. I think in some respects, we're likely to see the first part -- the first half of next year be meaningfully worse than the second half of next year in terms of group. But that is based on a guess on where the virus is and where the vaccines are. And obviously, the more the virus recedes into the background and the more confidence or availability we get in the vaccine, the more we'll see this group business start to build back.

我只能給你一個統計數字。我認為，與一年前的 2020 年相比，2021 年集團的已預訂業務量下降了約 10%。我認為在某些方面，我們可能會看到明年上半年的情況比明年下半年的情況要糟糕得多。但這只是基於對病毒分佈地點和疫苗分佈地點的猜測。顯然，隨著病毒的影響逐漸減弱，疫苗的信心和普及程度不斷提高，我們將看到這個群體業務開始復甦。

Anthony, the only other thing I'd add is that for '22 and beyond versus '21, the rates of decline are meaningfully less. So when you think about the kind of the overall decline, it's nearer in where there's more concern, but when you look at corporate bookings beyond that, it's down much less.

安東尼，我唯一要補充的是，2022 年及以後的下降速度與 2021 年相比明顯要慢。所以，當你考慮到整體下滑的程度時，你會發現下滑幅度更大，尤其是在人們比較擔憂的地區；但如果你看看企業預訂，你會發現下滑幅度要小得多。

And separately, on homes and villas, what have you learned having that business in the portfolio in this environment? Have you seen more people look for more space? And do you think having that option is increasingly valuable for you in the current and future environments?

另外，就住宅和別墅而言，在這種市場環境下，您將這項業務納入投資組合，從中獲得了哪些經驗？你有沒有註意到越來越多的人需要更大的居住空間？您認為在當前和未來的環境中，擁有這種選擇對您來說是否越來越有價值？

So 3 things on HVMI, which are consistent with -- Homes & Villas by Marriott International, I should say, not use our internal lingo too much and expect you all to know it. But our home sharing business has been benefited by 3 trends, all of which we've talked about, leisure, drive -- well, 2 of them we've talked about. Leisure, drive-to, both advantages, and whole home is an advantage.

所以，關於 HVMI 有三件事，這與萬豪國際旗下 Homes & Villas 的理念一致——應該說，不要過度使用我們的內部術語，並期望你們所有人都能理解。但我們的房屋共享業務受益於三大趨勢，我們都談到了這三大趨勢：休閒、駕駛——好吧，我們只談到了其中兩項。休閒娛樂、駕車出遊都是優勢，整棟房子都是優勢。

So what people are drawn to in terms of home sharing particularly in a COVID-19 environment is do you have a place where I can take everybody and where we can be on our own? I don't want a separate bedroom. I don't really want an apartment that somebody lives in regularly. I don't want the old style home sharing because I can't be certain about the cleanliness or comfort of that. But if you can give me a vacation home on the beach or in New England or someplace I can drive to, then I know that I can control my environment, I can control my transportation and it suits my purpose because it's a leisure trip anyway. And so generally, that has been a positive thing, although, to state the obvious, it is a very small part of our business.

因此，在新冠疫情環境下，人們在選擇合租房時，往往會考慮這樣一個問題：你有沒有一個地方，我可以帶所有人一起去，而且我們都能擁有自己的空間？我不需要單獨的臥室。我其實不太想要有人常常居住的公寓。我不想選擇老式的合租方式，因為我無法確定那種方式的清潔度和舒適度。但是，如果你能給我一處海邊的度假屋，或者在新英格蘭的度假屋，或者其他我可以開車到達的地方，那麼我就知道我可以控制我的環境，我可以控制我的交通，這很符合我的目的，因為無論如何，這是一次休閒旅行。因此，總的來說，這是一件好事，儘管顯而易見，它只是我們業務中很小的一部分。

Our next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Smedes Rose 系列。

I guess what I really wanted to ask you, assuming -- whenever this pandemic is behind us, how do you think about the operating model for the owners coming out of this? There's been a lot of talk from their end that they can come out with better margin and that there's been meaningful changes to, I guess, kind of brand requirements. So I'm interested in your thoughts around that.

我想問你的是，假設這場疫情過去之後，你認為企業主在疫情結束後該如何經營？他們方面一直在談論他們可以獲得更高的利潤率，而且我認為，品牌要求方面也發生了一些重大變化。所以我很想聽聽你對此的看法。

And I guess specifically, how do you think the trajectory of kind of in-room housekeeping during a guest stay goes? And am I right in thinking that, that would be kind of the significant cost savings if it were to go away?

具體來說，您認為客人入住期間客房清潔服務的進度如何？我的理解沒錯吧，如果取消這項計劃，就能省下一大筆成本？

So all good questions. And Leeny, you should jump in here because you've got some good data, I think, that will be really helpful. I mean we are working with our owners to make sure that we do everything we can to get back to the kinds of margins they had before, if not better.

這些都是很好的問題。Leeny，你也應該參與進來，因為你有一些很好的數據，我認為這些數據會很有幫助。我的意思是，我們正在與公司所有者合作，確保我們盡一切努力恢復到他們以前的利潤率水平，甚至更高。

The only caution here is rate and revenue are important. And so the longer it takes us to get back to the kind of RevPAR levels we had in 2019, the more pressure that's going to be on that. And we would want to make sure we're focused not only on the cost elements, but that we are really focused on driving revenue because that's an easier way to get back our margins in many respects.

唯一要注意的是，利率和收入都很重要。因此，我們恢復到 2019 年的 RevPAR 水準所需的時間越長，這方面的壓力就越大。我們希望確保我們不僅關注成本因素，而且真正關注如何提高收入，因為在許多方面，這是恢復利潤率的更容易的方法。

I think on the operating cost side, which is where your question focuses, I think there will be a couple of things that could be sticky. I think one is probably more digital check-in. Key -- contactless keys and the like, I think, will be adopted more during COVID-19 and could be helpful longer term. I think housekeeping protocols could be interesting. I mean I think we'll see that there is -- certainly during COVID-19, less intensive or less housekeeping period during a guest stay than between guest stays that protects both the guests and associates.

我認為在營運成本方面（這也是你的問題重點），可能會有一些棘手的問題。我認為其中一個可能更傾向於數位化辦理入住。我認為，非接觸式鑰匙等技術將在新冠疫情期間得到更廣泛的應用，並且從長遠來看可能會有所幫助。我覺得客房服務規章制度可能會很有趣。我的意思是，我認為我們會看到——尤其是在新冠疫情期間——在客人入住期間的清潔力度或清潔時間比客人入住之間的清潔力度要小，這樣既能保護客人，也能保護員工。

We have frustratingly seen a couple of cities move in the opposite direction, certainly at the behest of unions to try and bring jobs back, but essentially to say that notwithstanding COVID-19, every room should be cleaned every day. And that should be done as a matter of municipal policy requirement. And in many respects, the consequences of that, I think, is we'll see hotels that reopen slower in those markets and we'll see the jobs, as a consequence, come back slower and at lower numbers than would have been the case without that. But we'll be looking at not just housekeeping and then check-in, but we'll be looking at food and beverage and other things to try and make sure that we do what we can to bring back the margins so that our owners can be healthy, which is in the long-term interest, obviously, not just of them but of us.

令人沮喪的是，我們看到一些城市朝著相反的方向發展，當然，這是在工會的要求下，為了努力恢復就業，但本質上是說，儘管有新冠疫情，每個房間都應該每天清潔。這應該作為市政政策的要求來執行。我認為，從很多方面來看，其後果是這些市場的酒店重新開業速度會更慢，因此，就業崗位的恢復速度也會更慢，數量也會比沒有這種情況時更少。但我們不僅要關注客房清潔和入住，還要關注餐飲和其他方面，盡一切努力恢復利潤，讓我們的業主能夠健康發展，這顯然符合長遠利益，不僅對他們有利，對我們也有好處。

Yes. The only thing I'd add, Smedes, is the -- I think a lot of the work right now that we're doing will help very much in the longer run the -- a whole lot of the work right now is focused on lowering the breakeven at these lower levels of demand. So whether you're doing things more flexibly around how you're managing certain departments, all the kind of contactless work that Arne was talking about, using technology more that, frankly, will kind of change the way the guests interact with the hotel team, all of those things are tremendously helpful. And as I said, we've kind of globally reduced the breakeven occupancy by 300 to 500 basis points around the world. And that -- much of that should be helpful in the much longer run.

是的。斯梅德斯，我唯一要補充的是——我認為我們現在所做的許多工作從長遠來看都會有很大的幫助——我們現在所做的很多工作都集中在降低低需求水平下的盈虧平衡點上。所以，無論是更靈活地管理某些部門，還是像 Arne 所說的那樣開展各種非接觸式工作，以及更多地使用技術（坦白說，這些都會改變客人與酒店團隊互動的方式），所有這些都非常有幫助。正如我所說，我們已經在全球範圍內將盈虧平衡入住率降低了 300 到 500 個基點。而且，從長遠來看，其中許多方面都應該會有所幫助。

But again, as Arne said, we got to -- kind of got to give back there to have the proof of the pudding. And our goal is to make sure that over the next few years, that we get as much cash flow as we can while the demand is still building back.

但正如阿恩所說，我們必須──必須有所回報，才能有實際行動來證明這一點。我們的目標是確保在未來幾年內，在需求持續恢復的同時，盡可能多地獲得現金流。

Our next question comes from the line of David Katz of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·卡茨。

Look, what we've observed across our coverage and in listening to all of your commentary so far, could we see scenarios where the cost basis, both for yourselves and the hotel owners -- obviously, you're adjusting to a reduced demand environment. But what are you aiming for? Are there scenarios where, in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a lot less revenue but improved profitability and better earnings for Marriott? Is that what we're ultimately aiming for? Or are we trying to just sort of hold steady until things get back to approaching '19 levels?

你看，從我們目前的報導和聽取你們的評論來看，我們是否可以觀察到這樣的情況：無論是對你們自己還是對酒店業主來說，成本基礎——顯然，你們都在適應需求下降的環境。但你的目標是什麼？未來 12 至 24 個月內，是否存在這樣的情況：萬豪酒店的收入大幅下降，但獲利能力和收益卻有所提高？這就是我們最終的目標嗎？或者我們只是想維持現狀，直到情況恢復到接近 2019 年的水平？

Well, I mean, a little bit depends on what you're comparing to, obviously. The -- we ought to see improving profitability for owners, we ought to see improving profitability, improving earnings, improving EBITDA from Marriott every month and every quarter from this point going forward. Now that's not saying much, obviously, given the absolute numbers we reported this morning. But with a fairly high level of confidence, you can't say with certainty obviously, but with a fairly high level of confidence, the second quarter of 2020 should be the worst quarter we have ever seen by far forever, and things will get better from here.

嗯，我的意思是，這當然取決於你拿什麼來比較。我們應該看到業主獲利能力不斷提高，萬豪酒店的獲利能力、收益和 EBITDA 從現在開始每個月、每季都有所提高。顯然，考慮到我們今天早上公佈的絕對數字，這說明不了什麼。但可以相當肯定地說（當然不能百分之百確定），2020 年第二季度應該是我們有史以來見過的最糟糕的一個季度，而且情況會從此好轉。

I think as it relates more towards what I think your question was focused at, we have or in the process of nearing completion of, I suppose, the re-baselining of our business. And by our business, I think, I mean to include hotels that we manage for others, what our franchisees are doing, but what Marriott is doing also. As you all know, we manage a big portfolio of hotels. We manage more hotels in the luxury and full-service space than any other company in the world.

我認為，就你提出的問題而言，我們已經或即將完成業務的重新基準調整。而我所說的我們的業務，我認為，指的是包括我們為他人管理的飯店、我們的加盟商的業務，以及萬豪的業務。如大家所知，我們管理龐大的飯店組合。我們在豪華和全方位服務領域管理的酒店數量比世界上任何其他公司都多。

And in the managed context, of course, we provide services from above property. Sometimes, they're shared services in a given market. Sometimes, they're localized by country. Sometimes, they're global services. Think about the reservations platform, for example. And the costs of those are paid for by the hotels which are supported by those services. And we've obviously got our own G&A spending that we do to provide support for our brands and to provide management of the company and to do all the other things we need to do to manage our business for ourselves as well.

當然，在託管環境中，我們會提供上述屬性的服務。有時，它們是特定市場中的共享服務。有時，它們會按國家/地區進行本地化。有時，它們是全球性服務。例如，想想預訂平台。這些服務的成本由接受這些服務的飯店支付。當然，我們也有自己的一般及行政支出，用於支持我們的品牌、管理公司以及開展我們自身業務管理所需的其他一切事務。

But in both of those contexts, as Leeny talked about, we are moving towards about a 25% reduction in the gross level of spending between both categories combined. And that's the new base from which we'll build. And we will do our best, of course, over time, to build from that base only at the kind of rates we would have built on the preexisting base in the past and are hopeful that we will see RevPAR and fee growth for Marriott and EBITDA growth for our hotel owners grow at a faster pace than the pace at which we're growing costs. And that could well be the case for a number of years.

但正如 Leeny 所談到的，在這兩種情況下，我們正朝著兩類支出總水準合計下降約 25% 的方向發展。這就是我們將要建立的新基礎。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們將盡最大努力，以過去在現有基礎上發展的速度，並希望萬豪的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 和費用增長，以及我們酒店業主的 EBITDA 增長速度，能夠超過我們成本增長的速度。這種情況很可能會持續好幾年。

Right. So my point being earnings and cash flow should improve more quickly and hopefully, at a better rate than anything we're going to see on the top line for a while.

正確的。所以我的意思是，獲利和現金流應該會更快改善，而且希望改善速度能比我們一段時間內看到的營收成長更快。

I think that's fair.

我覺得很公平。

Our next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

And Arne, it's great to hear your voice on this call. Just going back to China. Can you elaborate a little bit more in terms of how leisure is performing versus those other 2 segments? I mean you called out the improvement in business transient group. But anything you can share for us to just kind of contextualize what that looks like?

阿恩，很高興在這通電話中聽到你的聲音。只是回中國而已。您能否再詳細闡述休閒娛樂產業與其他兩個產業相比的表現如何？我的意思是，你指出了商務旅行團體的改進。您能否分享一些訊息，以便我們更了解具體情況？

And then with inbound travel restrictions, it would seem that demand from Chinese locals is now above pre-COVID levels, if I'm understanding that right. So correct me if I'm wrong there. Do you think intra-China is getting an outsized benefit because there just aren't really outbound options right now and so you're seeing a substitution of outbound trips for inbound trips?

如果我理解正確的話，隨著入境旅行限制的實施，中國本地居民的需求似乎已經超過了新冠疫情前的水平。如果我理解有誤，請指正。你認為中國國內旅行之所以獲得不成比例的收益，是因為目前確實缺乏出境旅行選擇，所以出現了出境旅行被入境旅行替代的現象嗎？

Yes. There's a lot -- there are a lot of good questions in that. I appreciate that very much. The -- I would say generally that China is coming back in all segments, leisure, business transient and group. You can point at different markets and reach different conclusions. So we've got probably 20 to 25 hotels opening in Sanya, Hainan Island, which you can think about as China's Florida. They are doing extraordinarily well, and they are going to be mostly leisure and some group.

是的。這裡面有很多——有很多好問題。我非常感謝。總的來說，我認為中國正在各個領域復甦，包括休閒旅遊、商務旅行、散客旅遊和團體旅遊。你可以指出不同的市場，並得出不同的結論。所以，海南島三亞可能會有 20 到 25 家飯店開業，你可以把三亞想像成中國的佛羅裡達。他們做得非常好，而且他們主要會從事休閒活動和一些團體活動。

On the other hand, part of our Greater China numbers are Macau. Macau is a leisure market. And by and large, Macau is not reopened, and so that sort of pulls those numbers back a little bit.

另一方面，我們大中華區的數據中包含澳門。澳門是一個休閒市場。總的來說，澳門還沒有重新開放，所以這在某種程度上拉低了這些數字。

I think when you look at Shanghai, you look at Guangzhou and surrounding areas, which are much more business travel dependent, I think, generally, you see fairly strong -- very strong recovery certainly from their lows. Remember, in February, our occupancy numbers in China were sub 10%, I think 9% and change, and we're now running about 60%. So you could see a substantial move.

我認為，當你觀察上海、廣州及週邊地區時，你會發現這些地區更加依賴商務旅行，總體而言，你會看到它們從低谷中強勁復甦——當然是非常強勁的復甦。請記住，2 月我們在中國的入住率不到 10%，我想大概是 9% 多一點，而現在我們的入住率已經達到了 60% 左右。所以你可能會看到大幅波動。

And I mentioned the Beijing context. In Beijing, I think they had, I don't know, a couple of dozen cases, and they ended up testing 1 million people for COVID-19 in 30 days or something like that and managed to get sort of COVID back under control.

我還提到了北京的背景。在北京，我記得他們當時好像有幾十例病例，結果在30天內對100萬人進行了新冠病毒檢測，並設法控制住了疫情。

The only other thing I think we could say about China, and this is maybe odd given the kind of political dialogue that is taking place -- or political events that are taking place, maybe not that much dialogue, is that China and the U.S. are quite similar in the travel sense. Demand is overwhelmingly domestic. U.S., 95% domestic; China, we have the number of 80% being domestic but I actually think the number is probably higher than that.

關於中國，我想我們唯一還能說的另一點，考慮到正在進行的政治對話（或者說正在發生的政治事件，也許對話並不多），這一點可能有點奇怪，那就是中國和美國在旅行方面非常相似。需求絕大部分來自國內。美國國內消費佔 95%；中國，官方數據顯示國內消費佔 80%，但我認為實際比例可能更高。

China is not a big leisure market for the rest of the world. People -- some adventurous travelers go to China to see -- to take their vacations, but by and large, the international travel is business travel. And overwhelmingly, the shift has been towards domestic travel.

中國對世界其他地區而言並不是一個主要的休閒市場。有些人——一些喜歡冒險的旅行者——會去中國旅遊度假，但總的來說，國際旅行都是商務旅行。而且絕大多數情況下，旅行方式已經轉向國內旅行。

I think you're right to say that some of that recovery is probably Chinese travel that would have gone abroad, maybe to Asia Pacific or to someplace else, and has stayed home in China this year. We're certainly seeing the same dynamic in the United States. Nobody's going to Europe, and they're more likely to take their vacations here.

我認為你說的沒錯，部分復甦可能源自於中國遊客原本會出國旅行，例如去亞太地區或其他地方，但今年他們選擇留在國內。我們在美國也看到了同樣的趨勢。沒人會去歐洲，他們更有可能選擇在這裡度假。

Our next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的韋斯‧戈拉迪。

My question actually was just a follow-up -- just a quick question and a follow-up to your answer to the last question. Can you give us a sense on -- trying to gauge how the U.S. could follow Greater China in a recovery. You kind of highlighted both being more of a domestic market. But can you potentially talk about the biggest variances you see in those markets? For example, is the U.S. more dependent on large group compression nights and maybe will lag a little bit longer?

我的問題其實只是一個後續問題——只是一個簡單的問題，是您上一個問題的答案的補充。您能否給我們一些關於美國如何像大中華區一樣實現經濟復甦的看法？你剛才也提到了它們更像是國內市場。但您能否談談您在這些市場中觀察到的最大差異？例如，美國是否更依賴大型團體壓縮夜班，因此可能會稍微滯後一些？

Yes. That's a good question. I think the -- generally, what we see in China bodes well for what we should expect in the United States. And there are differences, obviously, but the domestic predominance is similar. So there's really not that much dependence on long-haul air travel, for example. Probably not that much difference on regional air travel. Obviously, China has got a big aviation business. And those planes are back flying, and they're back flying at bigger numbers than they are in the U.S. But remember, China is 2 or 3 months ahead of the U.S. in the COVID-19 recovery.

是的。這是個好問題。我認為，總的來說，我們在中國看到的情況預示著美國的情況也會很好。當然，兩者之間存在差異，但國內市場占主導地位的情況類似。因此，例如，人們對長途航空旅行的依賴程度其實並不高。區域航空旅行方面可能不會有太大差別。顯然，中國的航空業規模龐大。這些飛機已經恢復飛行，而且飛行數量比美國還要多。但請記住，中國在新冠肺炎疫情恢復方面比美國領先2到3個月。

I think the resilience of the American consumer is second to none, and I think we see that already. And that sort of is what causes us to be a little bit more optimistic today than 3 or 4 weeks ago in terms of the way the business may recover in the States. I think all of that is either similar or maybe even better.

我認為美國消費者的韌性是首屈一指的，而且我認為我們已經看到了這一點。正是這一點讓我們今天對美國商業的復甦前景比 3 或 4 週前更加樂觀。我認為所有這些要么類似，甚至可能更好。

I think the negative is we do have more group business in the United States than we do in China. We as an industry and we as Marriott both, we are -- whether that be association business or corporate business, the meetings side has been a more established part of business for many, many years. But at the same time, I think there are other compensating factors. I think that we spend more money on leisure travel in the U.S. than China does. I'm guessing they're a little bit. Net-net, I would think the recoveries generally ought to look about the same, subject to the recovery of society from COVID-19 and subject to the strength of the economy generally.

我認為不利的一面是我們在美國的集團業務比在中國的集團業務要多。無論是協會業務或企業業務，會議業務多年來一直是業務中較成熟的部分。但同時，我認為還有其他補償因素。我認為美國人在休閒旅遊上的花費比中國人多。我猜他們有點兒。總而言之，我認為復甦情況總體上應該大致相同，這取決於社會從 COVID-19 中恢復的情況以及整體經濟的強度。

The only other...

唯一的其他選擇…

You should actually shelf the last 2 questions, which is how does GDP look in the U.S. compared to China when you get through COVID-19 and how does the COVID recovery curve look like in the United States compared to China. Sorry, Leeny, if you were going to jump in.

實際上，你應該把最後兩個問題擱置一邊，這兩個問題是：當美國度過 COVID-19 疫情後，其 GDP 與中國相比如何？以及，美國的 COVID-19 疫情恢復曲線與中國相比如何？抱歉了，莉妮，如果你本來打算插手的話。

Yes. I would just say that the only other difference is when you just look at the fundamental portfolio differences. And that is that there is broader and deeper limited-service presence of our portfolio in the U.S. than there is in China, which probably at the margin is more skewed towards full service and maybe a bit overall urban. So I think there, you're clearly seeing -- in our limited-service portfolio, you're seeing -- in the tertiary markets, you're seeing this demand come back. So that's the other difference that actually accentuates the positives of North America.

是的。我只想說，唯一的其他區別在於你只看投資組合的基本差異。也就是說，我們在美國的業務組合中，有限服務酒店的覆蓋範圍比在中國更廣、更深入；而在中國，我們的業務組合可能更偏向於全服務酒店，而且整體上可能更偏向於城市酒店。所以我覺得，很明顯，在我們有限的服務組合中，在三線市場，這種需求正在回歸。所以，這正是另一個凸顯北美優勢的差異。

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Crow of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Bill Crow。

Arne, you sound well. I hope you are doing well.

阿恩，聽起來你精神不錯。希望你一切都好。

I'm doing great. Thank you. Appreciate that.

我一切都很好。謝謝。謝謝。

Couple of -- a 2-parter on unit growth. The first question is I get the 2% to 3% growth this year. And maybe I missed it, but did you talk about how that might bounce back in 2021 and 2022 if these are really just kind of delays in the construction process?

一對夫婦——關於單位增長的兩部分內容。第一個問題是，我預計今年的成長率為 2% 到 3%。或許我錯過了，但你有沒有談到，如果這些真的只是施工過程中的延誤，那麼在 2021 年和 2022 年，這種情況可能會如何反彈？

Yes. I guess the short answer is no. I mean I think the -- we will see these projects overwhelmingly become reality is our guess. I mean the -- certainly, when you look at 2008 and '09, when you look at 2001 or '02, even projects that we thought were dead often came back. And of course, most were never -- we never thought of as being dead, we thought of as being slowed because of financing or construction.

是的。我想簡短的答案是否定的。我的意思是，我認為——我們猜測這些項目絕大多數都會成為現實。我的意思是——當然，當你回顧 2008 年和 2009 年，回顧 2001 年或 2002 年，即使是我們認為已經夭折的項目也經常會重新出現。當然，大多數項目從來沒有——我們從來沒有想過它們會消亡，我們只是覺得它們因為融資或建設而進展緩慢。

While the depth of RevPAR decline is more significant this time, it is particularly tied to one reason. That reason will ultimately get behind us. And I would guess that, overwhelmingly, these projects move forward again. Whether they move forward to see a bounce back in 2021 or whether it takes us a little bit longer than that, that's the question that's hard to answer. And I think that's going to depend on COVID-19 and I think it's going to depend on the financial markets.

雖然這次RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）的下降幅度更大，但這主要與一個原因有關。那個原因最終會成為過去。我估計，絕大多數情況下，這些項目都會繼續推進。他們能否在 2021 年看到經濟反彈，還是需要更長的時間，這個問題很難回答。我認為這將取決於新冠疫情，也將取決於金融市場。

The second part of the question might have something to do with that as well, which is how many requests are you getting for key money? And do you think that the conversion activity that you and Hilton and other peers keep talking about is going to be largely driven by key money that's offered to the owners?

問題的第二部分可能也與此有關，那就是你收到了多少關於支付鑰匙費用的請求？您是否認為您、希爾頓和其他同行一直在談論的轉換活動，很大程度上將是由向業主提供的巨額資金所驅動的？

We are -- and Leeny, you should jump in on this. But I think we are generally empowered to manage our own liquidity and financial resources. We're probably putting less money -- less key money than we've done in the past years for the projects that we are signing today. I think when we get to the conversion market, in some respects -- and maybe this is a little bit of wishful thinking, but in some respects, the relative value that is achieved by joining a portfolio like ours in a weaker market is more obvious, and therefore, the need for key money is less powerful than it would be in a stronger environment where everybody is performing fine. Now whether we can turn that into actual terms of deals that are signed obviously depends on our dealmakers and the way they negotiate those deals.

我們是－莉妮，你也應該加入進來。但我認為我們通常有權管理自己的營運資金和財務資源。我們投入的資金可能比過去幾年少——對於我們今天簽署的項目，關鍵資金也會減少。我認為，當我們進入轉換市場時，在某些方面——也許這有點一廂情願的想法，但在某些方面，在市場疲軟的情況下加入像我們這樣的投資組合所獲得的相對價值更加明顯，因此，對關鍵資金的需求不如在市場強勁、每個人都表現良好的情況下那麼強烈。現在，我們能否將這些轉化為實際簽署的協議條款，顯然取決於我們的談判者以及他們談判的方式。

Leeny, you want to add anything to add?

莉妮，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. The only thing I'd say is the biggest, I think, question mark still for the moment is around the lenders. And while certainly, on key money, it can be a competitive perspective, it is making sure you've got lenders onboard to fill the biggest part of your capital stack. And that, in many cases really depends on the strength of the brand, the strength of the cash flow that's going to be delivered to the hotel, which I think does lead us back to brands like ours.

是的。我唯一想說的是，目前最大的疑問仍然是貸款方的問題。當然，在關鍵資金方面，這可能是一個競爭性的觀點，但關鍵是要確保有貸款人參與進來，填補你資本結構中的最大部分。而這在許多情況下確實取決於品牌的實力，取決於飯店將獲得的現金流的實力，我認為這最終還是會讓我們回到像我們這樣的品牌。

And while, sure, key money is always competitive, but I don't think on the conversion side that that's going to be kind of the one sole element that then makes it or breaks it. And I think it has so much to do with the asset value because these are long-term assets. So key money will always be an important part of the discussion. But I don't think kind of that element in and of itself is really that different from other times.

當然，關鍵資金總是很有競爭力，但我認為在轉換率方面，這不會是決定成敗的唯一因素。我認為這與資產價值有很大關係，因為這些都是長期資產。因此，關鍵資金始終是討論的重要組成部分。但我認為，就其本身而言，這種因素與其他時期並沒有太大不同。

Our next question comes from the line of Chad Beynon of Macquarie.

我們的下一個問題來自麥格理集團的查德·貝農。

Just wanted to ask about booking window, what you're seeing in the U.S., if that really changed at all in the last couple of months, particularly going into July, if that's kind of still in under a week or if that's starting to expand beyond what we've seen.

我只是想問一下預訂窗口的情況，你們在美國看到的情況如何，過去幾個月，特別是進入7月份之後，情況是否有所變化，預訂窗口是否仍然在一周以內，還是開始擴大到我們之前看到的範圍。

Still very short term. And it shouldn't surprise you because although the occupancy numbers improved -- have improved, we've still got a pretty general availability across the portfolio.

仍然是非常短期的。這不應該讓你感到驚訝，因為儘管入住率有所提高，但我們旗下所有飯店的空房率仍然相當高。

Okay. And then, Leeny, maybe hypothetical and a tough question, but regarding some of the positive sequential improvements you've been seeing on the revenue side and the reduction in cost, should we still assume that North American IMF fees, that it's pretty difficult to see a positive outcome just because of the accounting method? Or do you think, if the trends continue, we could kind of eke out a positive outcome?

好的。那麼，Leeny，這可能是一個假設性的、棘手的問題，但考慮到您在收入方面看到的一些積極的連續改善和成本的降低，我們是否仍然應該假設北美 IMF 費用，僅僅因為會計方法的原因，很難看到積極的結果？或者你認為，如果這個趨勢持續下去，我們或許能勉強取得一個正面的結果？

Sure. Believe it or not, there were a couple in Q2 from North America, but it's overwhelmingly from Asia Pacific. And there, a whole lot of that's going to depend on Q4, so we need to get further into the year. But as you might imagine, for the North American hotels where you have an owner's priority, under most any circumstance, you're seeing an absolutely massive decline in RevPAR in 2020. And so for this year, I think it's hard to imagine that there's anything very exciting to talk about there.

當然。信不信由你，第二季確實有幾個來自北美，但絕大多數來自亞太地區。而且，很多事情都將取決於第四季度，所以我們需要等到今年晚些時候才能知道結果。但正如你所想，對於擁有業主優先權的北美酒店而言，在幾乎任何情況下，2020 年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 都出現了絕對的大幅下降。所以今年，我覺得很難想像會有什麼令人興奮的事情值得談論。

But then -- and when you start talking about rebound and as demand comes back, I think one of the things that has been good to see is that, as demand really picks up, rate has also done what demand and supply showed to do, which is that it has also shown the qualities of being quite resilient. So when we think of kind of special corporate rates, et cetera, for next year, I think, again, it would point you to a potential view that as demand comes back, you will see things pick up nicely. And again, as we've said, there's been so much work on the cost side that kind of points to margins being able to be helpful as well. But I do think if you look at our history of North American recovery in IMFs, it does take a while because of these owner's priority.

但是，當你開始談論反彈，隨著需求回升時，我認為值得欣慰的是，隨著需求真正回升，利率也像供需關係所顯示的那樣，展現出了相當強的韌性。所以，當我們考慮明年的特殊企業價格等等時，我認為，這再次表明了一種可能的觀點，即隨著需求的恢復，你會看到情況好轉。正如我們之前所說，成本方面已經做了很多工作，這表明利潤率也可能有所幫助。但我認為，如果你回顧北美在國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的援助下實現復甦的歷史，你會發現這確實需要一段時間，因為這些資金所有者的優先事項決定了復甦的進程。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Bellisario of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Michael Bellisario。

Just one follow-up on your net unit growth comments. Looking forward, what does the split of managed versus franchise growth look like? And are you any more hesitant to take on managed properties today given the working capital requirements that we've seen that were so great this last quarter?

關於您之前提到的淨單位成長問題，我還有一個後續問題。展望未來，直營店與加盟店的成長比例會是怎麼樣的？鑑於上個季度我們看到的巨額營運資金需求，您是否對如今承接物業管理業務更加猶豫不決？

We are no more hesitant to take on managed than we were before, particularly in the luxury and full-service space. But I think the question really has to be assessed from a global perspective. And I think given the relatively greater strength of Asia Pacific and our year-to-date adds to the pipeline, if anything, we might skew just a tad more managed than franchise. But if you look at it like-to-like, our new unit growth in the United States, that's going to tend to be select service, which is going to tend to be overwhelmingly franchise, and obviously, those numbers are down.

我們對接手飯店管理業務的猶豫程度絲毫不亞於以前，尤其是在豪華飯店和全方位服務飯店領域。但我認為這個問題確實需要從全球視角來評估。而且我認為，考慮到亞太地區相對更強大的實力以及我們今年迄今為止新增的項目，如果非要說有什麼變化的話，那就是我們可能會更傾向於管理型項目而不是特許經營項目。但如果你進行同類比較，我們在美國的新門市成長往往是精選服務型門市，而精選服務型門市又往往絕大多數是特許經營店，顯然，這些數字都在下降。

Our next question comes from the line of Rich Hightower of Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Rich Hightower。

I wanted to follow up on another twist on the China versus North America question. And Leeny, I think you may have answered part of this to an earlier question. In the prepared comments, Arne, you said that both occupancy and RevPAR levels in China might come back to 2019 sometime next year. How much -- so there's a pricing component to that. So how much of the fact that you're talking about lower absolute ADRs translated into dollars and China contributes to that? And how do we sort of think about that versus the recovery in rates in North America, let's say?

我想就中國與北美問題的另一個角度來探討。莉妮，我想你可能在之前的一個問題中已經回答過一部分了。Arne，你在準備好的評論中提到，中國的入住率和每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）水平可能會在明年某個時候恢復到 2019 年的水平。具體金額－這裡面涉及價格因素。那麼，你所說的以美元計價的絕對 ADR 下降，以及中國在其中起到了多大作用？那麼，我們該如何看待這種情況與北美利率復甦之間的關係呢？

You're going to test -- maybe, Leeny, you can do this. But you're testing my knowledge here. I think it's relatively easy to see RevPAR getting back to 2020 -- 2019 levels in 2021 in China just based on the strength of the recovery so far. I can't tell you the split between ADR and occupancy.

你要測試一下——也許，莉妮，你能做到。但你這是在考驗我的知識。我認為，根據目前為止的復甦勢頭來看，2021年中國每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)恢復到2020-2019年的水平應該比較容易。我無法告訴你平均房價和入住率之間的比例。

Yes. I think -- again, I think occupancy is obviously typically -- that's the first driver, and that is the one that you can see so quickly get the pricing back, right? When you have super high demand over a weekend or over a holiday or a Tuesday through Thursday in a certain urban market, then all of a sudden, that compression happens very nicely, and you quickly see the rate pop. When we look at how our Chinese hotels are performing relative to the market, I think we all know that the classic RevPAR index things are not great, kind of perfect analyses, given you got a bunch of other hotels closed, but we have seen that our hotels have performed dramatically better than the industry. So I think, again, when you see demand for the brand and demand come back, that then rate can pick up pretty quickly.

是的。我認為——再次強調，我認為入住率顯然通常是——這是首要驅動因素，也是你很快就能看到價格回升的因素，對吧？當某個城市市場在週末、假日或週二至週四出現超高需求時，突然之間，這種壓縮就會非常順利地發生，你很快就會看到價格飆升。當我們審視中國酒店相對於市場的表現時，我想我們都知道，傳統的RevPAR指數並不理想​​，由於許多其他酒店關閉，這種分析並不完美，但我們已經看到，我們的酒店的表現遠超行業平均水平。所以我覺得，當品牌需求回升時，價格就會很快就會上漲。

I think in North America, we're going to -- it's going to depend more on the segments, right? It's going to depend more on the shifts between retail, special corporate, leisure and group because they all have some variances there on the ADR front. So if you had a fundamental shift on the percentages of group versus retail, for example, you might see a difference in rate. But again, we would expect, as you see the occupancy pick up quickly, to see the rate move fairly quickly. There aren't kind of institutional reasons why the rate is going to behave super differently.

我認為在北美，我們將更多地取決於各個細分市場，對吧？這更多取決於零售、特殊企業、休閒和團體之間的變化，因為它們在平均房價方面都存在一些差異。例如，如果團體與零售的比例發生根本性變化，你可能會看到費率的差異。但是，正如您所看到的，隨著入住率迅速上升，我們預計房價也會迅速上漲。從制度層面來說，利率並沒有特別不同的表現。

And ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the allotted time for questions. I will now turn the floor back over to Arne Sorenson for any additional or closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，提問環節的時間已經到了。現在我將把發言權交還給 Arne Sorenson，讓他作補充或總結發言。

All right. Well, I'd just say thank you, everybody. We appreciate your interest and your time. And of course, look forward to welcoming you back to our hotels just as soon as you feel comfortable getting on the road, which we hope is very soon.

好的。我只想說聲謝謝，謝謝大家。感謝您的關注和寶貴時間。當然，我們期待您一旦感覺可以安心出行，就立即歡迎您回到我們的酒店，我們希望這一天很快就能到來。

And thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude Marriott International's Second Quarter of 2020 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士、先生。萬豪國際集團2020年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。