萬豪國際 (MAR) 2020 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. And welcome to the Marriott International's First Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2020年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Arne Sorenson. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我把會議交給今天的演講者阿恩‧索倫森先生。請您開始發言，先生。

Good morning, everyone. And welcome to our first quarter 2020 conference call. I hope everyone and their families are safe and healthy during these unprecedented and challenging times, and I would like to send my deepest condolences to those of you who have lost friends or family because of COVID-19. Please know that our thoughts are with you.

各位早安。歡迎參加我們2020年第一季電話會議。在這段前所未有的艱難時期，我衷心希望大家和家人平安健康。對於那些因新冠肺炎失去親朋好友的朋友們，我致以最深切的慰問。請相信，我們與你們同在。

Joining me today from their respective homes are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Jackie Burka McConagha, our Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Vice President, Investor Relations.

今天透過各自家中連線的有：執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；資深副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Jackie Burka McConagha；以及副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Betsy Dahm。

I believe this is the first time the Marriott team has not been together in the same room to host this call, and that includes an earnings call from China in 2018 and one during a blizzard in 2010.

我相信這是萬豪團隊第一次沒有齊聚一堂主持此次電話會議，此前曾有兩次例外，一次是 2018 年在中國舉行的財報電話會議，另一次是 2010 年暴風雪期間舉行的財報電話會議。

I want to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and in the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

我想提醒大家，我們今天所作的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法所界定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致未來的實際結果與我們評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿以及我們在評論中的陳述僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

Please also note that, unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR and occupancy comments reflect system-wide constant currency and year-over-year changes, and include hotels temporary closed due to COVID 19.

另請注意，除非另有說明，我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 和入住率評論反映了系統範圍內的固定匯率和同比變化，並且包括因 COVID-19 而暫時關閉的酒店。

You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及我們今天演講中提到的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

Let me begin with what is clearly top of mind for all of you, how Marriott is navigating through the extraordinary and continually evolving worldwide impact of COVID-19. This is by far the most significant crisis ever to impact our business. For a company that is 92 years old and has weathered the Great Depression, World War II and numerous natural disasters around the world, that is saying something. While the year generally got off to a great start, we saw sudden sharp declines in occupancy associated with COVID-19, beginning in Greater China in January and then extending around the world. Occupancy continued to deteriorate in March and then stabilized in April, albeit at very low levels, everywhere except for Greater China where trends are improving.

首先，我想談談大家最關心的問題：萬豪酒店集團如何應對新冠肺炎疫情在全球持續演變的巨大影響。這無疑是我們公司有史以來遭遇的最嚴重的危機。對於一家擁有92年歷史、經歷過大蕭條、第二次世界大戰以及世界各地無數自然災害的公司而言，這足以說明其應對能力之強。雖然今年年初整體情況良好，但受新冠肺炎疫情影響，我們的入住率出現了急劇下降，這種情況從1月的大中華區開始，隨後蔓延至全球。 3月入住率持續下滑，4月趨於穩定，但除大中華區外，其他地區的入住率仍然很低，而大中華區的入住率趨勢正在好轉。

RevPAR in April fell 90% worldwide and in North America as well. April system-wide occupancy was 12%, both worldwide and in North America. For the week ending May 2, worldwide occupancy was 15%, and 20% when just looking at comparable hotels that were actually open.

4月全球及北美地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）下降了90%。 4月份全球及北美地區的系統入住率均為12%。截至5月2日當週，全球入住率為15%，若僅考慮實際營業的同類飯店，則入住率為20%。

About 25% of our hotels worldwide are temporarily closed, with 16% of our North American portfolio temporarily closed. Europe is mostly shut down with just over 3/4 of our hotels closed right now.

全球約有25%的飯店暫時關閉，北美地區有16%的飯店暫時關閉。歐洲大部分地區已停業，目前超過四分之三的飯店處於關閉狀態。

To state the obvious, we are operating in a very challenging environment. However, the glimmer of good news is that, overall, negative trends appear to have bottomed in most regions around the world. The resiliency of demand is evident in the improving trends in Greater China. New bookings continue to pick up, with demand driven primarily by domestic travelers. Occupancy levels in Greater China are currently just over 30%, up from the lows of under 10% in mid-February.

毋庸置疑，我們正面臨著極具挑戰性的環境。然而，一線曙光在於，整體而言，全球大部分地區的負面趨勢似乎已經觸底。大中華區需求的韌性體現在其持續改善的趨勢上。新預訂量持續回升，主要由國內遊客推動。目前大中華區的入住率略高於30%，較2月中旬少於10%的低點有所回升。

RevPAR has followed a similar trajectory, currently down around 67% year-over-year compared to an 85% decline in February. Throughout Mainland China, leisure demand was strong for the Chinese Labor Day holiday weekend in early May. Occupancy for that weekend was over 45%, with resort markets close to 70%.

RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）也呈現類似的走勢，目前年減約67%，而2月的降幅高達85%。在中國大陸，5月初的勞動節長週末休閒旅遊需求強勁。該週末的入住率超過45%，度假村市場的入住率接近70%。

We have seen examples of demand starting to come back in other areas around the world as well. Last weekend, they had some beaches reopened, The Ritz-Carlton Bacara in Santa Barbara. And our hotels in Hilton Head, South Carolina, for example, were expected to reach approximately 50% occupancy based on reservations on the books.

我們也看到世界各地其他地區的需求開始回升。上週末，一些海灘重新開放，例如聖塔芭芭拉的麗思卡爾頓巴卡拉酒店。以我們位於南卡羅來納州希爾頓黑德島的飯店為例，根據預訂情況，預計入住率將達到約50%。

Limited service occupancy in the U.S. has increased a bit each week over the past few weeks, showing the most meaningful improvements in drive-to destinations.

過去幾週，美國有限服務場所的入住率每週都有小幅上升，其中駕車前往目的地的入住率改善最為顯著。

Local, state and national governments are trying to manage the tight rope between containing COVID-19 and restarting their economies. There are likely to be some areas that start slower, some faster and some that open in fits and starts, but our business should improve as restrictions are relaxed.

地方、州和聯邦政府都在努力平衡控制新冠疫情和重啟經濟之間的關係。有些地區可能會進展較慢，有些地區進展較快，有些地區可能會斷斷續續地開放，但隨著限制措施的放鬆，我們的業務應該會有所改善。

On the development front, our pipeline increased slightly to a very healthy 516,000 rooms at the end of the first quarter. We opened over 14,000 rooms in the first quarter, and at quarter end, over 230,000 rooms on our pipeline or around 45% were under construction.

在開發方面，截至第一季末，我們的在建工程客房數量略有增加，達到非常健康的51.6萬間。第一季我們新增了1.4萬多間客房，截至季末，興建中項目客房數量超過23萬間，約佔總數的45%。

We do expect some hotel openings will be delayed due to COVID-19 related to supply chain issues or local restrictions on construction activity. But at this point, we have not seen more deals than usual dropping out of the pipeline. The pace of new deal signings has -- overall has slowed a bit as a result of the crisis, but we are encouraged by our current conversations with owners. Many continue to have a clear preference for our portfolio of brands, which posted worldwide RevPAR index gains of 330 basis points in the first 2 months of the year.

我們預計部分飯店的開幕會因新冠疫情相關的供應鏈問題或當地對建築活動的限製而推遲。但目前來看，我們尚未發現比平常更多的交易項目退出。受疫情影響，新交易的簽約速度整體放緩，但我們與業主目前的洽談進展令人鼓舞。許多業主仍然明顯傾向於選擇我們的品牌組合，這些品牌在今年前兩個月的全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）指數增長了330個基點。

Like us, many owners are taking a longer-term view on the market opportunity. In the first quarter, our Asia Pacific region saw meaningful development activity with over 9,000 rooms signed, roughly 45% more than in the year ago quarter, and we continue to see strong interest from owners in North America, even though they are not feeling a sense of urgency to get deals across the finish line.

和我們一樣，許多業主都對市場機會有長期展望。第一季度，亞太地區的開發活動十分活躍，簽約客房超過9,000間，比去年同期成長約45%。儘管北美業主並不急於完成交易，但我們仍然看到他們表現出濃厚的興趣。

We canceled our North America monthly development deal approval meeting in March, for the first time in more than a decade, to pause and take stock of the environment given the dramatic pace at which COVID-19 was impacting the industry, but have now returned to our usual meeting cadence.

鑑於 COVID-19 對行業造成的巨大衝擊，我們取消了 3 月份的北美月度開發交易審批會議，這是十多年來的第一次，以便暫停並評估形勢，但現在我們已經恢復了正常的會議節奏。

We continue to do what we can do across all areas of our business to respond to the current environment. We have issued several updates on the numerous actions we have taken, which have focused on helping our associates, our guests, our hotel owners and franchisees, and the company itself manage through this situation. While no one can know exactly when and how demand will start to return in each part of the world, Marriott is ready. We have swiftly made significant short-term changes to our business and enhanced our liquidity position, while remaining focused on how to best position ourselves for the recovery and for growth over the longer term.

為了應對當前情勢，我們正竭盡所能，在公司各個業務領域採取應對措施。我們已多次發布更新，介紹我們採取的各項舉措，這些舉措旨在幫助我們的員工、賓客、酒店業主和加盟商以及公司本身渡過難關。雖然沒有人能夠準確預測世界各地需求何時以及如何開始復甦，但萬豪已做好充分準備。我們迅速對業務進行了重要的短期調整，並增強了流動性，同時始終關注如何為復甦和長期成長做好最佳準備。

As global trends have started to stabilize, teams across the company have been diligently monitoring various data points and developing a cross-discipline recovery plan. In addition to tracking the booking and cancellation information and macroeconomic indicators, we are also looking at data around COVID-19 testing and cases and government regulations, all with an eye towards ramping up our business in a thoughtful way, as restrictions are lifted and market conditions improve.

隨著全球趨勢趨於穩定，公司各團隊一直密切關注各項數據，並制定跨部門的復甦計畫。除了追蹤預訂和取消資訊以及宏觀經濟指標外，我們還在關注新冠病毒檢測和病例數據以及政府法規，所有這些都是為了在限制措施解除、市場環境改善後，以審慎的方式逐步恢復業務。

We are consulting with our owners to analyze potential market demand and hotel level cash flow to help inform when and how to reopen their hotels. Region-specific marketing strategies are being developed that we plan to roll out in phases, as different customer segments and levels of demand return. A key component of our marketing plans will be leveraging our powerful Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program and focusing on reaching our highly engaged member base in our Marriott Bonvoy credit card holders.

我們正與酒店業主協商，分析潛在市場需求和酒店層面的現金流，以幫助他們確定何時以及如何重新開放酒店。我們正在製定針對特定區域的行銷策略，並計劃根據不同客戶群和需求水平的恢復情況分階段推出。我們行銷計劃的關鍵組成部分是充分利用我們強大的萬豪旅享家忠誠計劃，重點觸及我們高度活躍的萬豪旅享家信用卡持卡會員群體。

Throughout this crisis, we have continued to communicate with our loyalty members, including with special promotions on our co-brand credit cards in the U.S., such as our offer for 6x points on groceries. We have also extended Elite benefits. And today, to help spark demand, we will announce a new promotion to buy gift cards for future hotel stays at a 20% discount.

在整個危機期間，我們始終與忠誠會員保持溝通，包括在美國推出聯名信用卡特別優惠活動，例如超市購物可享6倍積分。我們也延長了精英會員的權益。今天，為了刺激需求，我們將宣布一項新的促銷活動：購買飯店禮品卡可享八折優惠，用於未來的飯店住宿。

In Greater China, our joint venture with Alibaba has been very helpful in rebuilding demand. A recent spring sale ran by Alibaba's Fliggy travel site was very successful and generated terrific near-term bookings. Bookings from sea trip have also grown significantly over the last few weeks and are up over 15% for the first week of May versus the same time last year.

在大中華區，我們與阿里巴巴的合資企業對重振需求扮演了至關重要的角色。阿里巴巴旗下飛豬旅遊網站近期推出的春季促銷活動非常成功，並帶來了可觀的近期預訂量。過去幾週，海上遊船的預訂量也顯著成長，5月第一週的預訂量比去年同期增加超過15%。

Another key component of our recovery plan is communicating with our guests and associates about our focus on health and safety and giving them the confidence they need to travel and stay with us. We recently announced enhanced global cleanliness guidelines focused on elevating cleanliness levels and hospitality norms to meet the health and safety challenges presented by the new environment. We are also working to reduce the frequency of contact between associates and guests by continuing to roll out programs, such as mobile check-in, mobile key and no contact room service.

我們復甦計畫的另一個關鍵組成部分是與賓客和員工溝通，強調我們對健康和安全的重視，並讓他們對入住和旅行充滿信心。我們近期發布了更嚴格的全球清潔指南，旨在提升清潔等級和服務標準，以應對新環境帶來的健康和安全挑戰。同時，我們也努力減少員工與賓客之間的接觸，持續推行行動辦理入住、電子房卡和無接觸客房服務等措施。

I want to take a moment to express my appreciation to our team of associates around the world. Amidst furloughs, reduced work weeks, temporary hotel closures, new cleaning requirements and very lean operation staffing, they continue to inspire me every day. Their constant messages to me of hope and belief in Marriott remind me over and over that we are so fortunate to have the best team in the business. The recovery is not going to happen uniformly across all regions, and it is not going to occur overnight. It may take longer than any of us would like, and we will likely operate a bit differently going forward, but we have taken the steps necessary to position the company to manage through this crisis successfully, and travel will rebound. Our people, our solid financial footing, our 30 industry leading brands and our #1 Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program continue to point toward a brighter future.

我想藉此機會向我們遍布全球的團隊成員表達我的感激之情。在員工休假、縮短工時、飯店暫時關閉、新的清潔要求以及營運人員精簡等種種挑戰下，他們每天都在激勵我。他們不斷向我傳遞希望和對萬豪的信念，讓我一次又一次地意識到，我們是多麼幸運，擁有業內最優秀的團隊。復甦不會在所有地區同步進行，也不會一蹴可幾。它可能需要比我們任何人預期的更長的時間，而且我們未來的運作方式也可能會有所不同，但我們已經採取了必要的措施，使公司能夠成功應對這場危機，旅遊業終將復甦。我們的員工、我們穩健的財務基礎、我們30個業界領先的品牌以及我們排名第一的萬豪旅享家忠誠計劃，都將繼續指引我們走向更美好的未來。

Before I turn the call over to Leeny, I want to share some organizational news. Dave Grissen, our current Head of the Americas, has decided to step down from his position as Group President of the Americas in the first quarter of 2021 after a 36-year career with Marriott. Dave and I started talking about his potential retirement last year, but neither he nor I felt the time was right to finalize any retirement. As we moved into 2020 and increasingly turned our -- turned toward questions around how we will rebuild our business and our company on the other side of COVID-19, it became obvious that we needed our new leaders to be fully engaged in this process. Dave will be with us through Q1, allowing for a smooth and thoughtful transition, but he will be missed by all of us, and we wish him all the best as he ventures into the next phase of his life. Dave, thank you for your extraordinary contributions to Marriott.

在將電話轉給Leeny之前，我想分享一些組織的最新消息。我們現任美洲區總裁Dave Grissen先生決定在2021年第一季卸任美洲區總裁一職，結束在萬豪酒店集團長達36年的職業生涯。去年，Dave和我就開始討論他可能的退休事宜，但我們都覺得當時的時機還不成熟。隨著2020年的到來，我們越來越關注如何在新冠疫情後重建業務和公司，我們意識到，我們需要新的領導者全心投入這個過程。 Dave將留任至第一季結束，確保平穩過渡，但我們所有人都會想念他，並祝他在人生的下一個階段一切順利。 Dave，感謝您為萬豪酒店集團的卓越貢獻。

Starting in 2021, we will remain organized in a continent structure, but our global lodging business will be consolidated under 2 fantastic veteran leaders. Liam Brown, the current Head of EMEA, will oversee North America. And Craig Smith, our current Head of Asia Pacific, will oversee all international regions outside of North America. Liam and Craig are excellent executives and bring tremendous leadership skills to their new posts. They have been key members of our leadership team for many years and will continue to be in the years ahead. My congratulations to both of them.

自2021年起，我們將繼續沿用洲際組織架構，但全球住宿業務將由兩位資深領導者統一管理。現任歐洲、中東和非洲區（EMEA）負責人利亞姆·布朗（Liam Brown）將負責北美地區業務。現任亞太區負責人克雷格史密斯（Craig Smith）將負責北美以外的所有國際區域業務。利亞姆和克雷格都是優秀的管理者，擁有卓越的領導才能，必為新職位帶來寶貴的經驗。多年來，他們一直是公司領導團隊的核心成員，未來也將繼續發揮重要作用。在此，我向他們二位表示衷心的祝賀。

Our last organizational update is a particularly important one to me. Although we take the next 2 -- although we will take the next 2 years to implement and appropriately celebrate the leadership of Bill Marriott, we wanted to share with you that Mr. Marriott has informed our Board of Directors that he plans to transition to the role of Chair Emeritus in 2022. Bill has been fully engaged in Marriott's work for as long as I have been alive, and he remains a daily source of contact and inspiration to me. In the midst of COVID-19, I talk to him every day. While our conversations today are focused on a crisis we are fighting, they are of a piece with the ongoing conversations that we have had, day in and day out, ever since the summer of 1992 when we first met at the tail end of another crisis, the gulf -- first Gulf War and the recession that followed. To state the obvious, we will celebrate Bill Marriott for his contributions to this company, to its associates and to the industry between now and his transition to Chair Emeritus in 2 years. For now, Bill, let me say thank you. To me, you are a boss, a mentor, a friend and truly family. I cannot imagine a time without your partnership and friendship, and I pray that there are many more years ahead for us.

對我而言，我們最後一次的組織架構更新尤其重要。雖然我們將用接下來的兩年時間來落實並恰當地表彰比爾·馬裡奧特先生的領導才能，但我們想與大家分享的是，馬裡奧特先生已告知董事會，他計劃於2022年轉任名譽主席。在我有生之年，比爾一直全心投入馬裡奧特的工作中，他始終是我每日的交流和靈感來源。在新冠疫情肆虐期間，我每天都與他保持聯繫。雖然我們今天的談話聚焦於我們正在應對的危機，但這與我們自1992年夏天以來日復一日的交流一脈相承。那一年，我們初次相遇，正值另一場危機——海灣戰爭及其後的經濟衰退——的尾聲。毋庸置疑，在比爾·馬裡奧特先生兩年後轉任名譽主席之前，我們將表彰他對公司、員工以及整個行業的貢獻。比爾，現在請允許我向你道一聲謝謝。對我而言，你既是我的老闆，也是我的導師，更是我的朋友，更是我真正的家人。我無法想像沒有你的合作和友誼的日子，我祈禱我們未來還能有更多美好的時光。

In anticipation of Bill's transition to the Chair Emeritus role, we expect that David Marriott will join our Board of Directors next year. David is well suited to serve on our Board, and I know he will bring not only his operations and sales experience, but also his deep understanding of Marriott's culture to Board-level conversations and decision-making. One other quick point, and I know we are giving you a peak into our forward-looking plans. When David joins the Marriott Board, we expect that he would step down at that time as an executive of Marriott. I look forward to working with David as a Director and then Chair for many years to come.

為迎接比爾即將卸任名譽主席一職，我們預計大衛·馬裡奧特將於明年加入董事會。大衛非常適合擔任董事會成員，我相信他不僅會將豐富的營運和銷售經驗，還會將他對馬裡奧特企業文化的深刻理解帶入董事會層面的討論和決策中。另外還有一點要說明，我知道這能讓大家提早了解我們的未來規劃。大衛加入馬裡奧特董事會後，我們預計他將卸任馬裡奧特的高階主管職務。我期待在未來的許多年裡與大衛作為董事，甚至主席，攜手共事。

And now, I will turn the call over to Leeny for more details on our finances. Leeny?

現在，我將把電話交給莉妮，讓她詳細說說我們的財務狀況。莉妮？

Thank you, Arne. I hope all of you and your families are staying healthy and safe. I also want to thank our teams around the globe for their dedication and tireless efforts during these unprecedented times.

謝謝你，阿恩。希望你和你的家人健康平安。我也要感謝我們全球各地的團隊，感謝他們在這段前所未有的時期所展現的奉獻精神和不懈努力。

Worldwide RevPAR was down 22.5% for the quarter driven by the sharp 60% global decline in March. First quarter gross fee revenues totaled $629 million, comprised of $214 million of base management fees and $415 million of franchise fees. Under the terms of our contracts, our portfolio of managed hotels earned $64 million of incentive management fees, or IMF, in the first quarter. However, under accounting rules, we can only recognize IMF to the extent that the full year forecast supports that these fees will not be reversed later in the year. At this point, there is significant uncertainty around full year performance, so we did not recognize any IMFs in the quarter.

受3月全球房價暴跌60%的影響，本季全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）下降了22.5%。第一季總費用收入為6.29億美元，其中包括2.14億美元的基本管理費和4.15億美元的特許經營費。根據合約條款，我們管理的飯店組合在第一季獲得了6,400萬美元的激勵管理費（IMF）。然而，根據會計準則，我們只能在全年業績預測支持這些費用不會在年內被沖銷的情況下確認IMF。目前，全年業績存在很大的不確定性，因此我們在本季沒有確認任何IMF。

Within franchise fees, other non-RevPAR related fees totaled approximately $140 million, up 5% from a year ago, primarily driven by stable year-over-year credit card and timeshare branding fees as well as higher year-over-year residential branding fees.

在特許經營費中，其他與RevPAR無關的費用總計約1.4億美元，比上年同期增長5%，主要原因是信用卡和分時度假品牌費同比保持穩定，以及住宅品牌費同比上漲。

Adjusted EBITDA of $442 million included $79 million of bad debt expense and guarantee reserves related to COVID-19.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.42 億美元，其中包括與 COVID-19 相關的 7,900 萬美元壞帳支出和擔保準備金。

Given the uncertainty around the timing and trajectory of a recovery, we're unable to provide our normal quarterly and full year P&L guidance. Instead, I thought it would be helpful to talk through a modeling scenario for our monthly run rate of major sources and uses of cash in the current environment, with worldwide RevPAR down roughly 90%, and also provide you with a few modeling sensitivity. Note that this is just one scenario and not an estimate of actual results.

鑑於經濟復甦的時間和軌跡存在不確定性，我們無法提供通常的季度和全年損益指引。因此，我認為有必要探討在當前環境下，全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）下降約90%的情況下，我們主要現金來源和用途的月度運行率的建模情景，並提供一些建模敏感性分析。請注意，這只是一個情景，並非對實際結果的預估。

Marriott's overall cash flow is easiest to describe in 2 broad categories. The first category is classic cash flow at the corporate level, which is basically EBITDA less cash interest expense, cash taxes and investment spending. The second category relates to our cost reimbursement revenues and reimbursed expenses, which represent the cost that we charge out to our owners and franchisees to cover the programs and services we provide to them.

萬豪酒店集團的整體現金流可以概括為兩大類。第一類是公司層級的傳統現金流，基本上是指息稅折舊攤提前利潤（EBITDA）減去現金利息支出、現金稅和投資支出。第二類是成本補償收入和已補償支出，代表我們向業主和加盟商收取的費用，用於支付我們提供給他們的項目和服務。

Starting with corporate cash, at these extraordinarily low levels of RevPAR, we assume net cash outflows of roughly $90 million to $95 million per month. That's assuming cash sources of around $60 million to $65 million and cash uses of about $155 million per month. The cash inflows are base management and franchise fees and other non-RevPAR related franchise fees. Given we are not currently recognizing any incentive fees due to the uncertainty around full year results, it's easiest to model RevPAR-related base management and franchise fees based on 2019 actuals. If you adjust those for unit growth and a 90% decline in RevPAR, the result is roughly $20 million to $25 million of fees a month per point of RevPAR. Also as a sensitivity for you, the impact of a 1 point change in RevPAR would be roughly $2 million of fees per month. As RevPAR climbs back closer to prior year levels, obviously, the improvement in fees per point of RevPAR grows significantly.

首先，假設公司現金流出，在RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）極低的情況下，我們預期每月淨現金流出約為9,000萬至9,500萬美元。這假設每月現金流入約為6000萬至6500萬美元，現金流出約為1.55億美元。現金流入包括基礎管理費、特許經營費以及其他與RevPAR無關的特許經營費。鑑於全年業績存在不確定性，我們目前暫不確認任何激勵費用，因此最簡單的方法是根據2019年的實際數據來模擬與RevPAR相關的基礎管理費和特許經營費。如果考慮到單元成長和RevPAR下降90%的影響，則每RevPAR點每月的費用約為2000萬至2500萬美元。此外，為了方便您了解，RevPAR每變動1點，每月費用約需增加200萬美元。隨著RevPAR逐漸回升至接近前年水平，每RevPAR點的費用改善幅度自然也會顯著增加。

In this scenario, the remaining $40 million per month of fees is expected to come primarily from other non-RevPAR related franchise fees, mainly credit card branding fees, residential branding fees and timeshare royalty fees, all of which are much more stable. Assuming RevPAR is down 90%, we expect that corporate cash outflows could total approximately $155 million per month. Compared to our 2020 budget, we've reduced our cash run rate for corporate G&A by 30%, excluding bad debt, to about $40 million per month. And we've eliminated or deferred around 45% of our original investment spending forecast of $700 million to $800 million for the full year, bringing our investment spending to roughly $35 million per month. The remaining $80 million per month includes cash interest expense, cash tax payments and the monthly cash outflows for our owned leased hotel portfolio in this exceedingly low RevPAR environment.

在這種情況下，預計每月剩餘的4,000萬美元費用主要來自其他與RevPAR無關的特許經營費，主要是信用卡品牌費、住宅品牌費和分時度假特許權使用費，這些費用都更為穩定。假設RevPAR下降90%，我們預期公司每月現金流出總額約1.55億美元。與2020年預算相比，我們已將公司一般及行政費用（不包括壞帳）的現金運行率降低了30%，降至每月約4000萬美元。此外，我們已取消或延後了原計劃全年7億至8億美元投資支出中的約45%，使投資支出降至每月約3,500萬美元。剩餘的每月8000萬美元包括現金利息支出、現金稅款支付以及在RevPAR極低的環境下，我們自有租賃酒店組合的每月現金流出。

The second category of cash flows relates to the revenues and expenses for the programs and services that we provide to our hotels, for which we're entitled to reimbursement. As you know, our spend and reimbursement for hotel level programs and services are meant to net to 0 over time, yet there can be timing differences between dollars we spend and dollars we collect. I'll break the second category of cash flows into 2 buckets. The first is the cash flow related to the Marriott Bonvoy program and the second is the timing of all our other program and services. Cash flowed into the loyalty program from hotels and our co-brand credit card issuers as members earn points. The cash outflows for Bonvoy are the payments made to hotels when members redeem points as well as the costs of running the program, including marketing. This year, we expect to have much lower redemption expenses in terms of both volume of nights and the rate paid for those stays given lower occupancy. At the current low occupancy rates, we estimate that we will generate several hundred million dollars of cash from the loyalty program this year, or $45 million of cash benefit a month. This does not include the cash we recently received from our co-brand credit card issuers. That leaves the remainder of our cost reimbursement revenues and reimbursed expenses.

第二類現金流與我們提供給飯店的項目和服務相關的收入和支出有關，我們有權獲得相應的報銷。如您所知，我們飯店層級的專案和服務支出和報銷最終目標是淨額為零，但我們實際支出和收入之間可能存在時間差。我將第二類現金流分為兩部分。第一部分是與萬豪旅享家 (Marriott Bonvoy) 計畫相關的現金流，第二部分是我們所有其他項目和服務的現金流。會員賺取積分後，飯店和我們的聯名信用卡發卡機構會向忠誠度計畫支付現金。萬豪旅享家的現金流出包括會員兌換積分時支付給飯店的款項以及營運此計畫的成本，例如行銷費用。有鑑於今年入住率較低，我們預計兌換費用（包括入住晚數和單次入住價格）將大幅下降。以目前的低入住率，我們預計今年將從會員忠誠度計畫中獲得數億美元的現金收入，即每月4,500萬美元的現金收益。這還不包括我們近期從聯名信用卡發卡機構收到的現金。剩下的收入來源包括成本補償收入和已報銷費用。

The largest bucket is the direct pass-through of payroll and other operational cost at our hotels, primarily for our North American-managed hotels. In 2019, these costs were around 75% of the more than $16 billion of GAAP reimbursed expenses. So far this year, we have reduced these pass-through costs by around 2/3. These expenses are generally repaid to us within days. And in 2019, managed owners reimbursed this with very little exception or delay. At this point, a very small fraction of these managed hotels are delayed in paying us.

最大的支出項目是直接轉嫁到我們酒店的工資和其他營運成本，主要針對我們在北美管理的酒店。 2019年，這些成本約佔超過160億美元GAAP報銷費用的75%。今年迄今為止，我們已將這些轉嫁成本減少了約三分之二。這些費用通常會在幾天內償還。 2019年，管理飯店的業主幾乎沒有出現任何例外或延遲，就償還了這些款項。目前，只有極少數管理飯店出現付款延遲的情況。

Apart from these hotel level costs and loyalty, the remaining reimbursed expenses in 2019 supported mandatory programs and services we provide to our hotels. They cover brand sales and marketing funds, our reservation system, property management systems and the like. About 2/3 of the amounts charged to hotels to cover these costs, which are also included in cost reimbursement revenues, vary based on hotel level revenues or program usage, with the remaining being a fixed charge per hotel or per key. That lines up well with our cost to provide these services, which are also about 2/3 variable and 1/3 fixed. With the significant cost cuts and changes we've implemented in this low RevPAR environment, we believe that the cost reimbursement revenues do recover our reimbursed expenses, but there could be some cash timing mismatch given the systems fee discount and payment deferral we provided for April and May as well as owners and franchisees extending their payables a bit. In this very low demand scenario, we could see roughly $100 million a month of higher working capital usage before considering the loyalty cash inflows.

除了酒店層面的成本和會員忠誠度費用外，2019 年剩餘的報銷費用用於支持我們為酒店提供的強制性項目和服務。這些費用涵蓋品牌銷售和行銷資金、我們的預訂系統、物業管理系統等。飯店為支付這些費用而支付的金額中，約有三分之二（也包含在成本報銷收入中）會根據飯店層面的收入或項目使用情況而有所不同，其餘部分則是按飯店或客房收取的固定費用。這與我們提供這些服務的成本基本一致，我們的成本也約有三分之二是變動成本，三分之一是固定成本。鑑於我們在當前低 RevPAR 環境下實施了大幅成本削減和調整，我們相信成本報銷收入能夠彌補我們已報銷的費用，但考慮到我們為 4 月和 5 月提供的系統費用折扣和付款延期，以及業主和加盟商適當延長了應付賬款期限，可能會出現一些現金流時間上的錯配現金流。在這種需求極低的情況下，在不考慮忠誠度現金流入的情況下，我們可能會看到每月營運資金使用量增加約 1 億美元。

The net cash outflow for all programs and services, including the positive cash flow from loyalty, could be around $55 million a month, which brings the total company cash use to roughly $145 million to $150 million a month. It's worth noting that in April, despite the 90% decline in RevPAR, the company's cash burn rate was significantly better than that estimate. And of course, as trends improve, the cash burn rate should improve as well.

所有項目和服務的淨現金流出（包括忠誠度計畫帶來的正現金流）可能約為每月 5,500 萬美元，這使得公司每月現金總支出約為 1.45 億至 1.5 億美元。值得注意的是，儘管 4 月每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 下降了 90%，但該公司的現金消耗率遠低於此預期。當然，隨著趨勢好轉，現金消耗率也應該會隨之改善。

I want to remind you that when you look on the P&L for cost reimbursement revenue and reimbursed expenses, it will look a bit different than the cash flows I've just described primarily due to the accounting for the loyalty program, which requires that as cash is received, it goes on to our balance sheet as deferred revenue with no immediate impact on the P&L.

我想提醒各位，在損益表中查看成本補償收入和已補償費用時，會發現它與我剛才描述的現金流量略有不同，這主要是因為忠誠度計劃的會計處理方式不同，該計​​劃要求在收到現金時，將其作為遞延收入計入資產負債表，而不會立即對損益表產生影響。

We've been focused on preserving liquidity and shoring up our cash position. In mid-April, we issued $1.6 billion of 5-year senior notes. And last week, we raised another $920 million through amendments to our co-brand credit card deals. We also eliminated dividends and share repurchases until further notice.

我們一直致力於保持流動性並增強現金儲備。 4月中旬，我們發行了16億美元的5年優先票據。上週，我們透過修訂聯名信用卡協議，又籌集了9.2億美元。此外，我們暫停了分紅和股票回購，直至另行通知。

Our current cash and cash equivalent amount on hand is around $3.9 billion. If you add to that cash, the undrawn capacity on our revolver of $1.3 billion, which we paid back on May 1, and deduct around $900 million of commercial paper currently outstanding, our net liquidity today is roughly $4.3 billion. We know the recovery could take a while, but we're confident we have the liquidity we need to manage through this situation, including paying back near-term debt maturities.

我們目前持有的現金及現金等價物約為39億美元。加上5月1日已償還的13億美元循環信貸額度（尚未提取），再減去目前未償還的約9億美元商業票據，我們目前的淨流動資金約為43億美元。我們知道經濟復甦可能需要一段時間，但我們有信心擁有足夠的流動資金來應對當前局勢，包括償還近期到期的債務。

We've made solid progress in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on our business and are prepared for the wide range of scenarios that could play out. We feel confident that we will come through this successfully and look forward to traveling and welcoming all of you at our hotels.

我們在減輕新冠疫情對業務的影響方面取得了顯著進展，並已做好應對各種可能情況的準備。我們有信心成功渡過難關，期待與您們一同旅行，並歡迎各位入住我們的酒店。

Thank you for your time this morning, and we will now open the line for questions.

感謝您今天上午抽出時間，現在我們將開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

I was trying to type about as fast as I've ever typed get through the discussion you just gave. So thank you for all the detail, and hope everyone is doing well. Leeny, maybe to start with a high-level one to just digest everything you kind of gave us, and do really appreciate that. Could you give us a sense on maybe just the broader franchise and management system at this point? What have been some of the asks by the owner community at this point as we think through what their own kind of cash level needs maybe? And specifically, if you could give any color on the percentage or number of either managed or franchised hotels that are sort of asking for either fee deferrals or fee relief at this stage.

我剛才拼命打字，想盡快把您剛才的討論內容整理好。非常感謝您提供的所有細節，也希望大家一切都好。 Leeny，或許我們可以先從宏觀層面入手，以便更好地理解您剛才分享的所有內容，我真的很感激。您能否就目前的特許經營和管理體係做一個大致的概述？業主群目前有哪些訴求？我們正在考慮他們自身的現金流需求。特別是，您能否透露一下，目前有多少家酒店（包括直營酒店和特許經營酒店）正在申請費用延期或減免？

So a couple of things. First, I'll remind everybody once again that a huge proportion of our fees that we charge are revenue based, so there is an automatic decline that has happened as a result of the drop in RevPAR. So that if you think about it, for the mandatory programs and services that we charge, when you also include the deferral and the 50% discount that we gave in April and May, there's actually very little due at the moment from -- on the mandatory programs and services. At the managed hotels in North America, we have also, as I talked about, dropped payroll incredibly as well as all the operating costs of the hotels.

有幾點要說明。首先，我要再次提醒大家，我們收取的費用中很大一部分是基於收入的，因此，由於每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的下降，這部分費用也隨之自動減少。所以，仔細想想，對於我們收取的強制性項目和服務費用，考慮到我們在四月和五月提供的延期付款和五折優惠，目前這些強制性項目和服務的費用實際上非常少。正如我之前提到的，在北美地區的飯店管理方面，我們也大幅削減了員工薪資以及飯店的所有營運成本。

So of course, you do have owners as -- just as we too are thinking about how we are managing our payables. Everybody is trying to manage their cash as best they can. But I will say, our owners and franchisees are paying their bills. We have a really very, very small fraction of our hotels that are having trouble paying at the moment. And then, except for a bit of extended payable terms that you can see, otherwise, it's really all systems go for the moment. And as I said, in April, we actually saw, relative to those numbers I gave, really, a fairly dramatically better situation than the one that I gave you. But we wanted you to have the benefit of our cash planning, so that we are making sure that no matter the situation that we're able to manage through it.

當然，業主們也和我們一樣，都在考慮如何管理應付帳款。大家都在盡力管理好現金流。但我必須說，我們的業主和加盟商都在按時支付帳單。目前只有極少數飯店出現支付困難。除了部分飯店延長了付款期限外，一切運作正常。正如我之前所說，四月的情況與我之前提到的相比，確實要好得多。我們希望您能了解我們的現金流規劃，確保無論遇到什麼狀況，我們都能妥善處理。

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Just with respect to your hotel owners, do you have a sense in North America how many of them access federal loans, relief programs? And then my second question is, can you estimate what you think maybe breakeven occupancies are for your North American -- full service North American select service hotels and, I guess, in that breakeven occupancy threshold, what ADRs are you assuming there?

關於您的飯店業主，您是否了解北美有多少飯店獲得了聯邦貸款或救濟計劃？我的第二個問題是，您能否估算一下北美全服務飯店和精選服務飯店的損益平衡入住率？我想，在這個損益平衡入住率下，您假設的平均房價是多少？

So let -- there's a lot we don't know about the details of our owners' access of the Payroll Protection Program and other government support. Obviously, we're in touch with them, and we hear back. We think that there are hundreds of hotels that have successfully applied for those -- the Payroll Protection Program. How many of them have actually received the dollars is a little harder for us to keep track of. And the percentages that have been approved are in the 50% to 60% range, if you include the select service hotels. Select service hotels obviously tend to be, more clearly, small business than full service hotels. But for each hotel owner, there tends generally to be eligibility under some of these programs to get the kind of support that the government is intended to apply. We continue to work with them to try and navigate through that.

所以，關於飯店業主如何獲得薪資保護計畫和其他政府援助的具體細節，我們還有很多不了解的地方。當然，我們一直與他們保持聯繫，也收到了回覆。我們認為，已有數百家酒店成功申請了薪資保護計畫。但究竟有多少酒店實際上收到了資金，我們很難統計。如果將精選服務型飯店也計算在內，核准的比例約為50%到60%之間。精選服務型飯店顯然比全服務型飯店規模更小。但對於每位飯店業主來說，他們通常都有資格申請政府計畫中的某些援助項目。我們會繼續與他們合作，努力幫助他們順利獲得援助。

I think the other thing that's important is what we hear anecdotally from our owners in North America is that lenders have been reasonably accommodating as well. And so you put those things together and then you put the collaboration that Leeny has just described between Marriott and our owners, which includes very much our cutting above property costs, including classic programs that are paid for by the system, and then work at deferring brand standards and initiatives and working to tap -- defer FF&E spending and to tap FF&E dollars and those sorts of things. And generally, we think the -- well, there's pressure all around, we think overwhelmingly that the system is surviving so far. Obviously, it will get tougher the longer it lasts, but we do think we're at bottom. And I think we're likely to see some release in pressure as we go forward, as demand incrementally begins to return.

我認為另一點也很重要，我們從北美業主那裡了解到，貸款方也相當通融。所以，把這些因素綜合起來，再加上Leeny剛才提到的萬豪與業主之間的合作——包括大幅削減物業成本（例如由系統支付的經典項目），以及推遲品牌標準和計劃的實施，並努力利用家具、設備及用品（FF&E）的資金等等——就顯得尤為重要。總的來說，我們認為——儘管各方都面臨壓力——但總體而言，我們認為整個系統目前還能勉強維持。當然，隨著時間的推移，情況會越來越艱難，但我們認為我們已經觸底。隨著需求逐步恢復，我認為壓力會逐漸緩解。

The breakeven occupancy question is an interesting one. The -- in a way, you could look at our portfolio in the United States. And remember, April, RevPAR down roughly 90%. And say, "Well, why are only 16% of the hotels closed?" Because it's got -- at those sorts of numbers, there are many more hotels that are losing dollars than that are closed, and that's true. But the question is, do they lose -- the question is not so much, do they make money by staying open, but the question at the moment is, do they lose less by staying open. And our general calculation is that, by the time you get to 10% occupancy or so, you're probably better off from a purely financial perspective to stay open, that the losses will be lower than the losses associated with being closed. And remember, when you're closed, you've still got labor costs for some labor that is required. You've still got heating and cooling. You've got security. You've got other costs that cannot be avoided. And so it doesn't -- there's not a closing scenario that gets you instantly to a breakeven level. You're still losing money on that. I think when you look at what is a cash breakeven, obviously, it's going to depend a little bit on select service versus full service and the level of services provided. The level of services provided in hotels with light occupancy today is less than the level of services that were provided before COVID-19 showed up, think about food and beverage as an example, which is likely to be significantly truncated today compared to what it was just a few months ago. But broadly, you're going to probably break even at 30% or so occupancy in the select brands and maybe 40% occupancy in the full service brands. But again, still do better by being open at occupancy levels, which are lower than that than you would do by being closed.

損益平衡入住率的問題很有趣。某種程度上，你可以看看我們在美國的投資組合。別忘了，4月每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）下降了約90%。然後你會問：「為什麼只有16%的飯店關門了？」 因為在這樣的數字下，虧損的飯店遠比關門的飯店多得多，這是事實。但問題是，它們——與其說是關門能賺錢，不如說是關門能減少損失。我們通常的計算是，當入住率達到10%左右時，從純粹的財務角度來看，關門可能更有利，因為損失會低於關門造成的損失。記住，即使關門了，你仍然需要支付一些必要的人工成本，仍然需要支付暖氣和冷氣費用，仍然需要支付保全費用，仍然需要支付其他一些無法避免的成本。所以，事實並非如此──沒有任何一種收尾方案能讓你立即達到損益平衡點。你仍然會虧損。我認為，當你考慮現金損益平衡點時，顯然，這在一定程度上取決於精選服務飯店還是全服務飯店，以及所提供的服務水準。如今，入住率較低的飯店提供的服務水準低於新冠疫情爆發前的水平，以餐飲為例，與幾個月前相比，如今的餐飲服務很可能大幅縮減。但總的來說，精選品牌飯店入住率達到30%左右可能就能達到損益平衡，而全服務品牌飯店入住率可能達到40%左右。但再次強調，即使入住率低於上述水平，維持營業也比關門歇業好。

The last point I think I'd make on this is not just in terms of RevPAR, but in terms of hotel closings/openings. April seems to have defined the bottom. And when we look at the last couple of weeks, there have not been significant movements in the number of closed hotels. But most days, we're seeing 1 or 2 or 3 more hotels reopen than we are seeing hotels closed. And if anything, as we see demand start to crawl back, as restrictions are released, I think the trend line now is towards more openings, not towards more closings.

我想補充的最後一點不僅關乎每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR），還關乎酒店的關閉/開業情況。四月似乎已經觸底反彈。過去幾週，關閉的酒店數量並沒有顯著變化。但大多數時候，我們看到重新開業的酒店比關閉的酒店多出一兩家甚至三家。而且，隨著需求開始緩慢回升，限制措施也逐步解除，我認為目前的趨勢是飯店開業數量增加，而不是關閉數量增加。

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes of SunTrust.

你的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

Wonder if you could give out some thoughts about potential recovery. Do you see at this point groups returning in the back half of the year? Your thoughts on corporate fly-to demand and then any early indications of summer leisure. I know it's just sort of tough to figure out, but interested in your thoughts.

想請您談談對潛在復甦的看法。您認為目前來看，團體遊客會在下半年回歸嗎？您對企業商務旅行的需求以及夏季休閒旅遊的早期跡像有何看法？我知道這很難預測，但我很想聽聽您的想法。

Well, I think what we've got to say here is probably not incrementally all that new from what others in the industry have been saying in the last few weeks and what we've been saying actually the last few weeks. It's obviously we got a global phenomenon underway that is sort of stunning in its breadth. We've talked about China a little bit, and China does appear to be recovering and holding. I know there's lots of debate about whether or not there is a resurgence of the virus in China. We've got tens of thousands of associates working in our hotels and basically have a way of tapping into that community and listening to both their sentiment and, to some extent, the data. And by and large, what we hear there is reassuring, that, in fact, demand is coming back and the virus spread does not appear to be profound. That doesn't tell us for certain where it's going in the next few months, but there is something that's encouraging there.

嗯，我認為我們今天要說的可能和過去幾週業內其他人士以及我們自己一直在說的並沒有什麼太大的新內容。顯然，我們正經歷一場席捲全球的疫情，其影響範圍之廣令人震驚。我們之前也談過中國，中國的情況似乎正在復甦並保持穩定。我知道關於中國是否出現疫情反彈的爭論很多。我們飯店有數萬名員工，我們能夠有效地與這個群體溝通，了解他們的感受，並在一定程度上參考相關數據。總的來說，我們聽到的消息令人欣慰，需求確實正在回升，病毒的傳播似乎並不嚴重。這並不能確定未來幾個月的走向，但確實有一些令人鼓舞的跡象。

When you go around the world, you're going to see a different dynamic in various parts of the world. I think in Europe, Europe, unlike China and the United States, is meaningfully more dependent on long-haul travel. You think about Europe as being a destination for vacationers from all around the world who want to see those great European cities. And because it's dependent on air and long haul, I suspect it will be probably the slowest to get back to the kind of levels that we enjoyed before COVID-19. Advantages of China and the United States are they're both domestic markets. Even in normal times, the U.S. is about 95% to 96% U.S. travel, with only 4% to 5% in total dependent on inbound travel from the rest of the world. And by the way, Mexico and Canada are both big source markets, and they're obviously fairly close. Sometimes, those are drive to inbound business. Sometimes, their flight obviously.

當你環遊世界時，你會發現世界各地呈現出不同的經濟動態。我認為，與中國和美國不同，歐洲對長途旅行的依賴程度更高。歐洲是世界各地度假者的目的地，他們渴望遊覽那些美麗的歐洲城市。正因為如此，歐洲的經濟依賴航空和長途旅行，我估計它恢復到新冠疫情前水準的速度可能會最慢。中國和美國的優勢在於它們都是國內市場。即使在正常情況下，美國的國內旅行也佔到95%到96%，只有4%到5%依賴來自世界其他地區的入境旅行。順便一提，墨西哥和加拿大都是重要的客源市場，而且它們距離很近。有時，這些客源市場主要依靠自駕遊，有時則主要依靠航空旅行。

Looking at the U.S., which maybe where your question is focused, we obviously see the drive to markets as being the strongest. You can see that in the -- even the data we showed on select brands in the prepared comments are performing better. And I think that's both leisure and, to some extent, it is sort of local or regional business, a business that is dependent on the car. And I think that will come back the most. I think we'll see some cities perform better. So a couple of contrasts here. New York may be the stickiest because of its density and its reliant on -- reliance on mass transportation, which creates some sense of risk. And so we would suspect -- and also, maybe a little bit their dependence on international travel, which is higher than the U.S. as a whole. But go to a market like San Antonio or even Chicago where there is a much more likelihood that people can drive in, in the summertime, be outside, enjoy Lake Michigan or enjoy the outdoor destinations, and I think we will see those markets perform better and faster. The slowest bit of business to come back will certainly be group. And we hear from our group customers that they want to get back to a place where they can bring people together, but they obviously want to do that in a way which is safe. And that depends on some things, which we can influence, like the protocols we use around cleanliness and meetings in the hotels, and we've got great work underway there. On the meeting side, it will include probably lower density in our hotels, in other words, more square footage being used for per head at a meeting than would have been the case beforehand. Maybe sadly, we've got the capacity to do that, but there are parts of this which we won't be able to control to. And to the extent, those meetings are dependent on air travel, it's not just going to be how does the plane itself feel, and the airlines, I think, are making good progress there, but how is it getting through the airports, and can you get through the security lines in a way that makes sense.

就美國而言，這或許正是您關注的重點，我們顯然看到市場需求最強勁。這一點從我們事先準備好的評論中所展示的特定品牌的數據就能看出，它們的表現都更好。我認為這既包括休閒旅遊，也包括某種程度上依賴汽車的本地或區域性商業活動。我認為這類活動將會復甦最為迅速。我認為一些城市的表現會更好。這裡存在一些對比。紐約可能因為其人口密度高且依賴公共交通而面臨一些風險，因此復甦可能最為緩慢。此外，紐約對國際旅行的依賴程度可能也高於美國整體水準。但像聖安東尼奧甚至芝加哥這樣的市場，人們更有可能在夏季開車前往，享受戶外時光，例如遊覽密西根湖或其他戶外景點，我認為這些市場的表現會更好、更快。復甦最慢的無疑是團體旅遊。我們從團體客戶那裡了解到，他們希望能夠恢復線下聚會，但顯然他們希望以安全的方式進行。這取決於一些我們可以控制的因素，例如我們在飯店實施的清潔和會議防疫措施，我們在這方面已經取得了顯著進展。在會議方面，我們可能會降低飯店的入住率，也就是說，與以往相比，每次會議人均使用的空間會更大。或許令人遺憾的是，我們有能力做到這一點，但有些因素是我們無法控制的。如果這些會議依賴航空旅行，那麼不僅要考慮飛機本身的舒適度（我認為航空公司在這方面已經取得了不錯的進展），還要考慮如何順利通過機場安檢，以及安檢流程是否合理。

I think the -- on balance, you've heard this a little bit from the industry data which is out there, I think what we're seeing across the United States is folks are tiptoeing out of their homes a bit more the last few weeks. We're probably seeing occupancy click up 1 point a week or something like that the last few weeks. That's not enough to put a stake on the ground and declare that we've got momentum towards a recovery given how low the numbers actually are. But it does tell you that the early travelers, which are going to be drive to leisure, local, domestic are interested in sort of getting out there and reliving their lives. And if they can do that and, over time, build confidence collectively, we can build confidence in the safety that we can enjoy if we're out of our homes, that will get better and better. If, on the other hand, restrictions are released and the virus spread surges, and we can't have that confidence as consumers, it will not be just a question of what the government restrictions are, but it will be a question of what that confidence level is, and that will make the recovery slower.

我認為，總的來說，正如您從現有的行業數據中了解到的，過去幾週，美國各地的人們都在謹慎地走出家門。過去幾週，飯店入住率可能每週略微上升1個百分點左右。考慮到目前的數字仍然很低，這一點成長不足以讓我們斷言經濟已經復甦。但這確實表明，早期出行的旅客，尤其是那些自駕休閒、本地或國內旅行的旅客，渴望走出家門，重拾生活。如果他們能夠做到這一點，隨著時間的推移，大家的信心逐漸增強，我們就能建立起外出旅行的安全感，情況將會越來越好。另一方面，如果解除限制後病毒傳播激增，而我們作為消費者又無法保持信心，那麼問題就不僅僅是政府的限制措施是什麼，而是我們的信心水平如何，這將使經濟復甦更加緩慢。

Your next question comes from Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

Can you just give us an update on how you're thinking about net unit growth?

您能否簡單介紹一下您對淨銷售成長的看法？

Well, we're watching it, I think, is the right answer. The -- obviously, we're 1.5 months into the extraordinary crisis outside of China and a couple of months longer than that in China. In various parts of the world, construction was essentially banned. In some markets, it was in essential services that was allowed to continue. Beyond that, you've got some question about hotels that were ready to open and whether or not the final furniture supply was in hand or not, or whether it was dependent on the global supply chain, which itself slowed down. I think we can say with a relatively high level of confidence that the overwhelming majority of hotels, which were scheduled to open in 2020, would have been very far along in their construction. And they will still make sense to reopen, assuming some kind of reasonable assumptions around recovery. And so while there will be delay in getting them opened, we would expect that they will open. Whether that delay is a number of months or a number of quarters probably will depend a little bit on those supply chain dynamics, construction restrictions, which, by and large, have been released. I mean I think California banned construction for a period of time, and I think construction is now back on in California.

我認為，我們正在密切關注事態發展，這才是恰當的回答。顯然，在中國以外地區，這場非同尋常的危機已經持續了一個半月，而在中國則持續了更長時間。在世界各地，建築業基本上都被禁止了。在一些市場，只有基本服務業被允許繼續營運。除此之外，還有一些問題，例如那些已經準備好開業的飯店，它們的最終家具供應是否到位，或者是否依賴全球供應鏈（而全球供應鏈本身也已經放緩）。我認為我們可以比較有把握地說，絕大多數原計劃在2020年開業的酒店，當時的建設工作已經接近尾聲。假設經濟復甦的預期合理，那麼重新開業仍然是有意義的。因此，儘管開業時間會有所延遲，但我們預計它們最終都會開業。至於延遲幾個月還是幾個季度，可能在一定程度上取決於供應鏈的動態和建築限制，而這些限制總體上已經解除。我的意思是，加州曾經有一段時間禁止建築施工，現在加州的建築施工已經恢復了。

And just the owner's sense about -- obviously, there's less urgency to get opened, but whether it's more logical to get -- to be open or to defer opening, it is likely we will have fewer new hotel openings than we assumed before COVID-19 in 2020. Whether that's down by half or down by 1/4, we'll have to watch and see. I think it's still way too early to identify. I do think that most of the hotels that were scheduled to open in 2020 will ultimately open into our system. And the same, I think, can be said for certainly most of the first half of 2021 openings as well.

業主們顯然並不急於開業，但他們仍在權衡是應該立即開業還是推遲開業。因此，2020年新開幕的飯店數量可能會比新冠疫情爆發前我們預期的要少。至於會減少一半還是四分之一，我們還需要觀察。我認為現在下結論還為時過早。但我相信，原計劃在2020年開業的大部分酒店最終都會加入我們的酒店系統。而且，我認為2021年上半年的大部分飯店也應該如此。

Your next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose of Citi.

你的下一個問題來自 Smedes Rose of Citi 的系列。

I wanted to ask you guys, and others have made pronouncements around what cleaning will look like in hotels in kind of a post-COVID world as you reopen, just how do you think about just the overall labor cost at a hotel going forward. Do you think that they'll ultimately stay about the same? Or do you see significant increases or decreases from here?

我想問各位，以及其他人對後疫情時代酒店重新開放後清潔工作模式的看法，你們如何看待酒店未來的整體人工成本？你們認為最終成本會維持不變嗎？還是會大幅上漲或下跌？

Well, that's -- it's going to be very interesting, I think, to watch. I think in the early stages, obviously, we're going to have less F&B service, for example. I think we're likely to have either fewer restaurants open, fewer meetings and the staffing that's associated with meetings, probably a difference in the approach to the phase and some of those sorts of things. So I suspect, in the early quarters, it's going to be more grab and go and prepackaged material. Vary a little bit, obviously, by segment and by market around the world, but I think those things would generally tell you that for the balance of 2021 -- or excuse me, 2020, labor costs as a percentage of revenues are probably likely to be lower.

嗯，我覺得這將會非常有趣，值得關注。顯然，在初期階段，餐飲服務將會減少。例如，餐廳營業數量可能會減少，會議數量以及與會議相關的人員配備也會減少，應對疫情的策略可能會有所不同等等。所以我估計，在最初幾個季度，外帶食品和預包裝食品會更加普及。當然，不同行業和全球市場的具體情況可能會略有不同，但我認為這些因素總體上表明，在2021年剩餘的時間裡——或者更準確地說，是2020年剩餘的時間裡——勞動力成本佔收入的比例可能會降低。

I think when you look longer term, it's going to be interesting. Certainly, in the first stage, we would expect that digital check-in, think about using your phone as a key or checking in at a kiosk, will be important, both to protect associates and to protect guests. I think there will be a relatively greater effort in housekeeping between guests than there was before to make sure that those rooms are virus-free, to the extent we can be certain of that. I suspect there could be relatively less services provided during stay, however, and those things may offset each other a little bit. But obviously, we'll work our way through that in the best case we kind of can. A long-winded way of saying, I think, in the near term, certainly, labor costs will be less. And obviously, we'll be looking longer term at making sure that we meet what our guest expectations are and that the services provided are the services that are needed by our guests and also making sure that our owners get back to a place where their investments make sense and where their financial well being is good for the long term.

我認為從長遠來看，情況會很有趣。當然，在第一階段，我們預計數位化入住（例如使用手機作為房卡或在自助服務終端辦理入住）將非常重要，這既能保護員工，也能保護客人。我認為，為了確保房間沒有病毒（在力所能及的範圍內），客房清潔工作在客人入住間隙會比以前更加嚴格。但我估計，入住期間提供的服務可能會相對減少，這些因素可能會相互抵消。但顯然，我們會盡力找到最佳解決方案。總而言之，我認為，短期內勞動成本肯定會降低。當然，從長遠來看，我們會專注於確保滿足客人的期望，確保提供的服務是客人真正需要的，同時也要確保業主能夠獲得合理的投資回報，並確保他們的財務狀況長期良好。

Okay. Can I just ask you one more, too? I mean, do you think, I guess, particularly in North America, as maybe some owners struggle to get reopened or maybe have difficulty working with their banks, I mean, does Marriott -- would you see more of a lending capacity or potentially putting out guarantees for debt to some of the owners with maybe on a short-term basis? Or is that sort of not on the table right now?

好的。我可以再問一個問題嗎？我的意思是，您認為，尤其是在北美，一些業主可能難以重新開業，或者可能在與銀行協商方面遇到困難，萬豪酒店集團是否會考慮增加貸款能力，或者可能為一些業主提供短期債務擔保？還是說目前這方面還沒考慮？

Leeny, you got that?

莉妮，你明白了嗎？

Yes, I do. Yes, I think, as you know, we typically really use our capital to propel our growth. Now we do, obviously, from time to time, will work with an owner in a specific situation, particularly when there's reinvestment going into a property, as we have done with Host, for example. But I think, broadly speaking, we have reimbursables. We expect to get paid. We provide those programs and services, and the owners have an obligation to pay us. So while there is an ongoing dialogue and, we -- certainly, as you've seen from all of our efforts to reduce our costs as well as to defer the payment of some mandatory required fees, then wanting to be understanding about the situation, but, at the same time, I would not expect to see that we would be doing extensive, either guarantees or loans to deal with this.

是的，我的確如此。是的，如您所知，我們通常會利用自有資金來推動業務成長。當然，我們有時也會在特定情況下與業主合作，尤其是在對房產進行再投資時，例如我們與Host的合作。但總的來說，我認為我們有應收帳款。我們期望獲得報酬。我們提供這些項目和服務，業主有義務支付費用。因此，儘管我們一直在與業主溝通，正如您所看到的，我們一直在努力降低成本，並推遲支付一些強制性費用，以示對當前情況的理解，但同時，我認為我們不會為此提供大量的擔保或貸款。

Your next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis of Instinet.

你的下一個問題來自 Instinet 樂團的 Harry Curtis。

Leeny, just a quick follow-up on that question. As you think about your development going forward, does this crisis really change the way that you approach key money and mezz loans given the reserve that you've -- not the reserve, but the impairment charge that you took today?

Leeny，關於你剛才的問題，我還有一個後續問題。當你考慮未來的發展計畫時，考慮到你目前的儲備金——不是儲備金，而是你今天提列的減損準備金——這次危機真的會改變你處理關鍵資金和夾層貸款的方式嗎？

So first of all, on the impairment charge, if you think about the biggest chunks of the impairment charge today, 2 of them were related to leases. They are leases that have been around. And as you know, with the lease accounting change, we have these assets on our books called right-of-use assets that extend over the life of the lease. So frankly, they really don't relate to the classic sort of giving of key money with that. And frankly, there was one impairment charge that we took this quarter that we mentioned, the $14 million, that's on a very large portfolio of limited service hotels. And as part of that transaction, there was an agreement by the owner to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to reinvent those properties, so quite frankly, still a transaction that, within the broader scheme of keeping up our portfolio and making them competitive, make a ton of sense.

首先，關於減損費用，如果您仔細想想今天最大的幾筆減損費用，其中兩筆都與租賃有關。這些租賃合約已經存在一段時間了。如您所知，隨著租賃會計準則的變更，我們的帳簿上出現了一種稱為「使用權資產」的資產，其期限貫穿整個租賃期。坦白說，它們與傳統的支付關鍵款項（例如鑰匙錢）並不相關。坦白講，我們本季提列的一筆減損費用，也就是我們之前提到的1400萬美元，是針對一個規模龐大的有限服務酒店組合而言的。作為交易的一部分，業主同意投入數億美元來改造這些物業，因此坦白說，從我們維持投資組合併提升其競爭力的整體策略來看，這筆交易仍然非常有意義。

Now I think, in general, as you think about what we have to invest in our pipeline, it's actually fairly small. It tends to be that on the more complex, higher-end projects that we, at the margin, are going to have a little bit more capital in than if it's on a kind of small price limited service hotel. But I think, fundamentally, we still view that the way that we approach investing in deals to be appropriate. Now at the same time, I will say, we are obviously cognizant of kind of where we are from a liquidity standpoint as well as rebuilding the business over the next few years. So when we think about, for example, our restrictions that we have put into our revolver covenant waiver, we're obviously going to keep very closely -- very close watch on the amounts of investment that we're spending. But I think, from a fundamental approach, we still feel really good about the value that we are driving with these key money type of investment.

總的來說，我認為，考慮到我們目前在專案儲備方面的投資，實際規模相當小。通常情況下，我們會在更複雜、更高端的項目上投入比小型、價格有限的酒店項目更多的資金。但我認為，從根本上講，我們仍然認為我們目前的投資方式是合適的。同時，我也要指出，我們顯然非常清楚自身的流動性狀況，以及未來幾年重建業務的計畫。例如，考慮到我們在循環信貸豁免條款中設定的限制，我們顯然會非常密切地關注我們的投資金額。但我認為，從根本上講，我們仍然對透過這些關鍵資金投資所創造的價值感到非常滿意。

Arne, maybe you can respond to the second question, which is, as you imagine the recovery 2 to 3 years from now, and the house profit margin that was generated across your portfolio in 2019, you've walked through some of the gives and takes on higher and lower expenses, is it unrealistic to think that you can get there in the next 2 or 3 years, assuming the same level of occupancy?

Arne，或許你可以回答第二個問題，那就是，你設想一下未來 2 到 3 年的復甦情況，以及你 2019 年所有房產組合產生的房屋利潤率，你已經分析了費用高低帶來的利弊，假設入住率保持不變，那麼在未來 2 到 3 年內實現這一目標是否不現實？

Get back to the same level of profit per room you're talking about?

你能恢復到你所說的每間客房相同的利潤水平嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

Yes, yes. The -- I don't think it's -- it's certainly not unrealistic to try, and I think we will work hard at that, if not getting back to the same levels, getting to even better levels. I do think that the -- in the first instance, the recovery -- top line recovery, obviously, is really important to this as well as what we do on the cost side. Top line recovery in the first instance is going to be COVID-19 driven, what is the sense of government restriction that gets in the way of our business and what is the sense of sort of remaining concern or anxiety about the spread of the virus that dampens down demand. And the recovery from that is going to depend significantly on the progress of the virus, the development of vaccine, development of other treatments, maybe ubiquity of testing, all the things that are being talked about every day and endlessly every day.

是的，是的。我認為——嘗試一下肯定不是不切實際的，而且我認為我們會為此努力，即便不能恢復到之前的水平，也要爭取達到更高的水平。我確實認為——首先，營收復甦——顯然，營收復甦以及我們在成本控制方面所做的工作都至關重要。營收復甦首先將取決於新冠疫情的影響，取決於政府限制措施對我們業務的阻礙程度，以及人們對病毒傳播的持續擔憂或焦慮是否會抑制需求。而復甦將在很大程度上取決於病毒的進展、疫苗的研發、其他療法的研發、檢測的普及程度，以及所有這些每天都在被反覆提及的話題。

I think beyond that, the question about the top line is going to be driven by the economy, and none of us knows how severe the economic hangover will be when the fear of COVID-19 recedes. But there is every reason to suspect that there may be some stickiness to a weaker demand environment, at least for a period of time, simply because of GDP activity. And so those things, I think, are both important from a top line perspective.

我認為除此之外，營收能否達標最終取決於經濟情勢，而我們誰也無法預知，​​當人們對新冠疫情的恐懼消退後，經濟衰退的程度究竟會有多嚴重。但鑑於GDP的疲軟態勢，我們完全有理由懷疑，需求疲軟的局面可能會持續一段時間。因此，我認為從營收角度來看，這兩方面都至關重要。

From a cost perspective, we will obviously do the kinds of things that we're going to do. To the extent the top line is depriving us dollars per room of revenue, that challenge becomes a little bit more significant. But I think, as we move our way down the recovery and we see revenue per room come back, we have a fighting chance of getting profits growing back too.

從成本角度來看，我們顯然會繼續採取我們計劃採取的措施。如果營收下滑導致每間客房的收入減少，那麼這個挑戰就會變得更加嚴峻。但我認為，隨著經濟復甦的推進，每間客房的收入逐漸回升，我們也有機會實現利潤的恢復成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼鮑威爾。

A question on, I guess, supply growth. So do you expect this event to have an impact on how lenders approach construction financing? Do you expect them to maybe require more equities and require more cash reserves? And could that be kind of a long-term headwind to the disruption over time?

我想問一個關於供應成長的問題。您認為這次事件會對貸款機構的建設融資方式產生影響嗎？您認為他們是否會要求更高的股權比例和更多的現金儲備？長遠來看，這是否會對目前的市場動盪構成一定的阻力？

I'll start, and then. Arne, feel free to add on. So I think, first of all, let's talk about what's already under construction. The financial institutions today are in vastly better health than they were back in the Great Recession. And as Arne was saying earlier, these deals still make sense. They're under construction. There's no reason to think that they won't get finished as the final supplies are delivered and they have the ability to open. Now could it be that they open a bit later to -- depending on the environment for demand? Sure. But again, from everything we hear anecdotally as well as see -- I don't know if you noticed around your towns that construction actually is one of the few businesses that you can actually still see a fair amount going on. And so as you then think about the pipeline of new deals, I think that clearly is one that there's more question around, and that there is likely to be at least a bit more of a wait-and-see attitude by the lenders on committing to new deals. However, the one thing I will say is that, as you think about, if they are going to lend, who they're going to lend to, it has kind of classically been the case that the stronger brands get the financing when deals are getting done. And I would expect, with all that you've heard around what we're doing related to cleanliness and making sure that the guests know the standards that they can expect our hotels to have when they come, that, that will continue to be one of the strong points that our brands have when a developer goes to consider getting a loan.

我先來，然後，Arne，你隨意補充。首先，我們來談談目前正在建設中的項目。現今的金融機構狀況遠比大蕭條時期好得多。正如Arne之前所說，這些交易仍然有意義。它們正在建設中。沒有理由認為它們無法完工，因為最終的材料已經到位，它們具備了開業的條件。當然，它們可能會因為市場需求而稍晚開業，這當然有可能。但是，從我們聽到的各種傳聞以及我們所看到的——我不知道你們是否注意到，在你們所在的城鎮，建築業實際上是少數幾個仍然相當活躍的行業之一。因此，當我們考慮新交易的儲備時，我認為這顯然是一個存在更多疑問的領域，貸款機構在承諾新交易方面可能會採取更多的觀望態度。不過，我想說的是，正如您所想，如果他們要放貸，會貸給誰，通常情況下，實力更強的品牌更容易獲得融資。而且，鑑於您已經了解到的我們在清潔方面所做的一切，以及我們確保客人了解酒店服務標準的做法，我相信，這將繼續成為開發商考慮貸款時我們品牌的一大優勢。

And the other thing I'll say is our conversations that our developers are having continue a pace. Obviously, conversion activity is up right now, as we think about those conversations as well as then continuing on new construction. These are folks who are looking for the longer term. And from a longer-term perspective, they still view it quite strongly.

另外，我想說的是，我們開發商之間的洽談仍在持續進行中。顯然，目前轉換活動有所增加，因為我們不僅在考慮這些洽談，而且還在繼續推進新項目建設。這些客戶著眼於長遠發展。從長遠角度來看，他們仍然非常看好這個項目。

Got it. And you mentioned, Arne, that you saw some good RevPAR indexing in January and February. How do you maintain that momentum in this kind of environment? Is that something you can even focus on? And looking maybe to early next year in a downturn scenario, what tools do you have to continue to grow RevPAR index?

明白了。 Arne，你剛剛提到一月和二月的RevPAR指數表現不錯。在這種環境下，你如何保持這種成長勢頭？這方面可以當作重點嗎？展望明年年初可能出現的經濟下行情景，你有哪些工具可以幫助RevPAR指數繼續成長？

Well, we call that Marriott Bonvoy. I think, as of the end of the quarter, we're at 142 million members or something like that. And I think the program remains a powerful tool for us to drive loyalty of travelers to our brands. And we'll continue to stay focused on making sure that program is strong and is relevant to folks, both as they travel and when they're not traveling. And I think that will be the principal tool on our -- in our toolkit.

我們稱之為萬豪旅享家 (Marriott Bonvoy)。截至本季末，我們的會員人數應在 1.42 億左右。我認為該計劃仍然是我們提升旅客對我們品牌忠誠度的有力工具。我們將繼續致力於確保該計劃強大且實用，無論旅客是在旅行中還是在非旅行狀態下，都能從中受益。我認為這將是我們最重要的工具之一。

Beyond that, of course, it's the questions that are sometimes related, sometimes mutually reinforcing of that, but it is the breadth of distribution. It is hotels that continue to inspire people when they dream about travel, which is often about resort destinations and about luxury and lifestyle hotels, not exclusively, but that certainly is a piece of that, and I think our portfolio there is extraordinarily strong.

當然，除此之外，還有一些問題彼此關聯，有時會相互印證，但關鍵在於分銷管道的廣度。酒店始終是人們夢想旅行時的靈感來源，而人們的夢想往往與度假勝地、豪華酒店和生活方式酒店有關——當然，這並非絕對，但這無疑是其中重要的一部分。我認為我們在這一領域的酒店組合非常強大。

And then questions about how do we go to market with the sales force and how do we make sure we're delivering the kind of operational excellence which Marriott has long been known for. I think all of those things will remain tools that we rely on. The -- we're disappointed, obviously, by COVID-19 for so many reasons. But partly, the momentum that we had built in the latter part of 2019 and which continued into 2020 with -- as we mentioned, 330 basis points of index growth in January and February, which are massive numbers for a portfolio of our size, speak very well for our ability to get back there and rebuild that momentum. There's nothing about COVID-19 which should disrupt that momentum in the years ahead.

接下來的問題包括：我們如何帶領銷售團隊開拓市場？如何確保我們能持續維持萬豪酒店集團一貫的卓越營運水準？我認為所有這些都將繼續是我們賴以生存的工具。當然，我們對新冠疫情感到非常失望，原因有很多。但部分原因是，我們在2019年下半年建立起來的良好勢頭，以及在2020年延續下來的勢頭——正如我們之前提到的，1月和2月指數增長了330個基點，對於我們這樣規模的投資組合來說，這是一個非常可觀的數字——充分展現了我們重回正軌並重建增長勢頭的能力。新冠疫情本身不會在未來幾年擾亂這一成長動能。

Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley of UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

Great. I wanted to follow up on what you mentioned earlier about unit growth, and I understand the new construction uncertainty of kind of how much of that will get to lead. But I'm wondering if you could talk about the conversions and what level of interest you may be seeing, especially given that some owners out there, not in your system, are probably under some pressure. And can -- how much could conversions offset some of the slower growth in new units? And how quickly could they get into your pipeline? And then just as a point of comparison on the same topic if you could tell us a little bit more about how in the last downturn that may have -- it seems like conversion is obviously uptick in a downturn, and how much did that offset changes and maybe what your decline in new unit growth?

好的。我想就您之前提到的單元成長問題做個後續跟進，我理解新建項目數量存在不確定性，不知道最終能有多少能達到預期。但我想請您談談改建專案的情況，以及您觀察到的市場需求，特別是考慮到一些不在您系統內的業主可能面臨一些壓力。改建工程能在多大程度上彌補新建單元成長放緩的影響？它們能多快進入您的專案儲備？另外，為了方便比較，您能否再詳細說說上次經濟低迷時期的情況？改建項目在經濟低迷時期似乎明顯有所成長，那麼它在多大程度上抵消了新單位成長的下滑？

So the -- Leeny, you may have this data top of mind. I'm not sure I do. But if you look through cycles, and this will be directional, not probably as concrete as you'd like, Robin, in a weaker environment, conversions go up. They go up for us. They go up for their stronger brands because not every hotel can perform as well in a weaker environment. And so we're already seeing conversations pop up where folks are looking at, "Oh my goodness. How do I get this hotel reopened? And don't I need a pipeline of customers in a loyalty program today more than I needed one 6 months ago or 3 months ago?" And so all of that will help. I think, at the same time, it's fair to say that while conversions step up in a weaker environment, new builds step down, and they probably step down at least as much as the conversion step up. And so we would -- if you look at 2010, '11, '12, the hotels that were under construction before the Great Recession continued to open into our system, but we had not signed hotels -- new hotels in '09 and '10 at the kind of pace that we had before the Great Recession hit. And so we end up with a percentage unit growth, even with the benefit of conversions, which is certainly not higher than what we would have had before and, if my recollection serves, would, on average, have been a little bit lower. I think when we look now into the next period of time, I think our brands are stronger. I think the portfolio is stronger. I think the momentum with the loyalty program and our index numbers are stronger, all of which will bode well for conversion activity as, by the way, is the depth of the decline in performance of the industry as a whole, which gives that much more motivation, I think, for owners to move.

所以——Leeny，你可能對這些數據很熟悉。我不確定我是否也熟悉。但如果你觀察週期，Robin，這只是一個方向性的推測，可能不像你希望的那樣具體，在市場疲軟的情況下，轉換率會上升。我們的轉換率上升了。他們旗下那些實力較強的品牌的轉換率也會上升，因為並非每家飯店都能在疲軟的市場環境下保持良好的表現。所以我們已經看到一些討論，人們在思考：「天哪，我該如何讓這家酒店重新開業？我現在是不是比六個月前或三個月前更需要會員計劃的客戶儲備？」所有這些都會有所幫助。我認為，同時，公平地說，雖然在疲軟的市場環境下轉換率上升了，但新建案卻下降了，而且下降幅度可能至少與轉換率的上升幅度一樣大。因此，如果您回顧2010、2011和2012年，您會發現，在大衰退之前正在建設的酒店繼續陸續加入我們的系統，但我們在2009和2010年並沒有以大衰退前的速度簽約新酒店。所以，即使考慮到改建帶來的收益，我們的酒店數量增長率也遠低於衰退前，如果我沒記錯的話，平均而言還會略低一些。我認為，展望未來，我們的品牌實力更強，酒店組合也更強大，忠誠度計劃和指數的成長勢頭也更強勁，所有這些都將有利於改建活動。此外，整個產業的業績下滑幅度也更大，這無疑會促使業主更有動力進行改建。

At the same time, as Leeny has just gone through, I think we're going to see that, while the banks are much stronger than they've been in the prior crisis, they will inevitably pause and require more equity or get to see whether or not we can get more clarity before they're going to provide the kind of financing commitments that they were providing before COVID-19 hit. Put all those things together, and I suspect we'll find opportunities here, but we will be less likely to be seeing an increase near term in net rooms openings into our system than a decrease. Leeny, do you disagree?

同時，正如Leeny剛才所說，我認為我們會看到，儘管銀行的實力比上次危機時強得多，但它們不可避免地會暫停放貸，要求更多股權融資，或者在提供像新冠疫情爆發前那樣的融資承諾之前，先看看能否獲得更清晰的前景。綜合所有這些因素，我估計我們會在這裡找到一些機會，但短期內我們系統新增客房數量不太可能增加，反而可能會減少。 Leeny，你不同意嗎？

No, I totally agree. The only thing I'll add, Robin, is one of the differences between now and the Great Recession is our strong portfolio of soft brands and, frankly, the interest that we're seeing in those brands around the world. So the conversion vehicles that we have now as compared to 12 years ago I do think are meaningfully stronger, which I think is helpful. I think the financing realities are going to stay the same, so that's kind of we're going to have to -- if somebody is looking for financing or refinancing to do a deal, we'll have to work through that in the demand environment with COVID.

不，我完全同意。羅賓，我唯一要補充的是，現在的情況與大蕭條時期最大的不同之處在於我們擁有強大的軟品牌組合，坦白說，我們看到這些品牌在全球範圍內都備受關注。因此，我認為我們現在的融資管道比12年前強大得多，這很有幫助。我認為融資環境不會有太大變化，所以如果有人想透過融資或再融資來完成交易，我們就必須在新冠疫情下的需求環境下解決這個問題。

But I do think that we've got the right portfolio of brands kind of across all 30, and we definitely are seeing increasing conversations. But as Arne said, if you're looking at kind of normally, maybe 15% to 20% of your conversion -- your room openings or conversion, and then let's say that number goes up to 1/3, that still is not going to offset what you're seeing in terms of the slowdown in new construction.

但我認為，我們在所有30個品牌中都擁有合適的組合，而且我們確實看到對話量在增加。但正如Arne所說，如果你關注的是通常情況下轉換率（即客房開放或轉換率）的15%到20%，那麼即使這個數字上升到三分之一，也無法抵消新房建設放緩帶來的影響。

No. Great. That makes sense. And maybe just one small follow-up. Just if you think about sort of last year or something typical, what percent of your conversions were from the soft brands, which, like you said, something you didn't have in the last downturn?

不，太好了，這說得通。或許還有一個小問題。想想去年或其他比較典型的例子，你們的轉換率有多少百分比來自軟性品牌？就像你說的，上次經濟低迷時期你們並沒有軟性品牌。

In North America, it's going to be overwhelmingly that way. So if you think about in full service that -- the full service rooms that we opened maybe about, call it, 25%, 20% of our room openings in North America, because limited service is such a big chunk in our current pipeline, not of the existing stock, but of the room openings, they're going to overwhelmingly be soft brand, either new build or conversions. So I'd say we can get you the specific numbers, but a good percentage.

在北美，情況將基本如此。所以，如果你考慮全服務酒店——我們新開的全服務客房可能只占我們在北美新增客房總數的20%左右，因為有限服務酒店在我們目前的項目儲備中佔據了很大一部分，這裡指的不是現有客房，而是新增客房，它們絕大多數都是軟品牌酒店，無論是新建的還是改建的。所以，我們可以提供具體的數字，但肯定有一個相當高的比例。

Your next question comes from the line of David Katz of Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的戴維‧卡茨。

I just wanted to pose a strategic issue. When you sort of think about growing your business going forward in the context of this event and other events you've been through, how do you think about the hurdle rates of taking on a hotel as a management contract versus a franchise with a third-party operator and sort of calibrating all of the risks and returns associated with all that given where we are? And this may be a larger question for another day, but I thought I'd pose it anyway.

我只是想提出一個策略性問題。考慮到這次事件以及您過去經歷的其他事件，當您思考如何發展業務時，您如何看待以管理合約形式承接飯店和與第三方營運商合作的特許經營模式之間的門檻差異？在當前情況下，您又如何權衡所有相關的風險和報酬？這或許是一個更大的問題，以後有機會再討論，但我還是想先提。

Yes. It's a fair question and, obviously, one that has been raised a few times. I think there are obvious differences between management and franchise. The franchise model is dramatically more prevalent in the lower segments of the industry. Franchising is also dramatically more prevalent in the U.S. than it is in other markets around the world. And there are obviously different reasons for those distinctions. One is that the farther up the chain scale you go, the more likely you're getting into group, the more likely you're getting into luxury, that the greater premium is placed on operational expertise. And by no means do I mean to suggest that there aren't franchisees that have expertise that is able to do that, but not all franchisees do. And in some markets of the world, those franchisees, by and large, have not existed yet. I think that there is room for us to consider whether in some of the lower segments, we have more management than we need to have, whether we've had a sort of a cultural bias towards management that is unnecessary. At the same time, I think the power of the luxury brands, the power of the lifestyle brands, the power in the group space, the power in food and beverage, I for one, wouldn't trade that away. I think that is something that is going to drive the stickiness of the loyalty program, drive aspirational travel, drive higher-end travel, which will continue to be strong. And we want very much to keep that as a prominent and industry-leading part of our portfolio and would not trade Marriott's model for being purely in the lower segments. There might be a different risk profile there, but there's also a different upside that's there.

是的，這是一個很合理的問題，而且顯然已經被問過好幾次了。我認為管理和特許經營之間存在著明顯的差異。特許經營模式在業界低端領域更為普遍。特許經營在美國的普及程度也遠高於世界其他市場。造成這種差異的原因有很多。其中一個原因是，隨著產業鏈的向上延伸，越接近集團化、越接近高端市場，營運專業知識就越受重視。我絕不是說沒有具備這種專業知識的加盟商，只是並非所有加盟主都具備這種能力。而且在世界某些市場，這類加盟商基本上還不存在。我認為我們應該思考，在某些低端領域，我們的管理階層是否過多，是否存在不必要的管理文化偏見。同時，我認為奢侈品牌、生活風格品牌、團體旅遊以及餐飲領域的實力，我個人絕對不會放棄。我認為這些優勢將提升會員忠誠度計畫的黏性，推動高端旅行的普及，並使其持續保持強勁勢頭。我們非常希望保持這一優勢在我們投資組合中的重要地位和行業領先地位，絕不會為了專注於低端市場而放棄萬豪的商業模式。雖然低端市場可能面臨不同的風險，但同時也蘊藏不同的發展潛力。

Your next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay of RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的韋斯‧戈拉迪。

Can you talk about what drove the $65 million of bad debt expense this quarter?

您能談談本季導致6500萬美元壞帳支出的原因嗎？

Yes, sure. As you know, the new accounting standard called CECL, better known as CECL, does it a little bit differently than the way that bad debt was done for us before, and it's an accounting standard that everybody out there has got to follow. And before, for us, it was truly writing them off once it was very clear that the receivable was absolutely uncollectible. The requirement now is a little bit more as you think about like a classic loan portfolio for a bank, where it has to have, obviously, what you reflect as uncollectible, but also an estimate of future expected losses. So it requires that you go and you're looking at your past history of your receivables and making an estimate based on performance of where they will prove out. And so you actually are taking a classic loan loss provision against that base of receivables as well as when you've actually got a specific receivable that's deemed uncollectible. So as you can see in the number that we've talked about, the $65 million as part of what was in G&A this quarter, that obviously is meaningfully impacted by COVID-19. So it's got whatever ones that we very specifically deem uncollectible, but also given the environment and estimate of future expected losses.

是的，當然。如您所知，新的會計準則CECL（通常簡稱為CECL）與我們先前處理壞帳的方式略有不同，而且這是所有會計機構都必須遵守的準則。以前，一旦應收帳款明顯無法收回，我們就會直接將其註銷。現在的要求更像是銀行的經典貸款組合，不僅要考慮無法收回的款項，還要對未來預期損失進行估計。因此，您需要回顧以往的應收帳款記錄，並根據其表現來預測未來的收款情況。這樣，您不僅要為整個應收帳款基礎提列傳統的貸款損失準備，還要在確認某筆應收帳款無法收回時提列相應的準備。正如我們剛才提到的數字，本季一般及行政費用中的6,500萬美元顯然受到了新冠疫情的顯著影響。這其中包含了我們明確認定為無法收回的款項，同時也考慮了當前情勢和對未來預期損失的估計。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Crow of Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Bill Crow。

One for each of you. Leeny, is there any risk to collecting what is owed from the timeshare business?

你們每人一份。莉妮，從分時度假公司拿回欠款有什麼風險嗎？

I'm sure they're listening to this call, so I would say no. No, I think that, as you know, is overwhelmingly a fixed charge. And we feel great about our partner, Marriott Vacations Worldwide, and we do not believe that there is risk associated with that fee.

我相信他們正在監聽這通通話，所以我的答案是否定的。不，我認為，正如您所知，這筆費用絕大多數是固定的。我們對我們的合作夥伴萬豪度假酒店集團非常滿意，我們認為這筆費用不存在任何風險。

Okay. And then, Arne, bigger picture. Any change given the current dynamics to your investment, your commitment to Homes & Villas?

好的。那麼，Arne，從更宏觀的角度來看，鑑於目前的形勢，您對Homes & Villas的投資和承諾會有任何改變嗎？

No, I don't think so. The amount of money we've invested in Homes & Villas is really very modest. You're talking about a handful of millions of dollars, something like that, to get the business up and running. And I think the way we've positioned that business, which is the higher end of the home sharing space, sort of skewing towards whole home and luxury, which is quite different from a traditional hotel product and has different dynamics, I think, to, in a COVID-19 environment because you're not really sharing a part of a home, and you're ending up in a place, which I think can be -- where we can deliver the kind of professional services that we'd like to deliver would suggest there's still opportunity for that. It is, as a consequence, I think, something that we'll continue to pay attention to.

不，我不這麼認為。我們在Homes & Villas上的投資金額其實非常有限。大概也就幾百萬美元，用來啟動和經營這項業務。而且我認為，我們對這項業務的定位——高端房屋共享，偏向整套房屋和豪華住宿——與傳統酒店產品截然不同，在疫情期間的經營模式也有所不同。因為你並非共享房屋的一部分，而是入住一個可以讓你享受我們想要提供的專業服務的地方，這表明這方面仍然存在機會。因此，我認為我們會繼續關注這一點。

Do you think it will ramp back up similar to the way the hotels are ramping up?

你認為它會像酒店業一樣逐步恢復嗎？

Yes, I would think so. I mean it's obviously a tiny business for us by comparison to what we're doing. And it is leisure focus -- more leisure focused than our hotel business is. I don't -- there could be some modest differences in the way that the ramp occurs. I wouldn't think they're very dramatic though.

是的，我也這麼認為。我的意思是，跟我們目前的業務相比，這顯然只是一個很小的業務。而且它更專注於休閒娛樂——比我們的酒店業務更偏向休閒娛樂。我不認為坡道的安裝方式會有一些細微的差別。但我認為差別不會很大。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Bellisario of Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Michael Bellisario。

Just one quick question for you. I think you mentioned payment deferrals and 50% fee discounts, but that was, I think, just for April and May. When do you decide -- or what gets you to offer the same concessions for, say, June and July, for example, or maybe even longer? What are you looking for? What do you have to see? What do you have to hear from franchisees?

我還有一個問題想請教您。您之前提到過延期付款和五折手續費，但好像只針對四月和五月。那麼，您是如何決定──或者說，是什麼因素促使您將同樣的優惠政策延續到六月和七月，甚至更長呢？您在考慮哪些因素？您需要看到什麼？您需要從加盟商那裡聽到什麼？

Well, again, I think, as I talked about before, we've done a remarkable job of being able to reduce our cost down to this level where we were able to offer this and still feel like we'll be able to recoup our expenses in providing these kind of basic mandatory programs and services. So I don't expect at this point that we would be looking at offering a further discount.

嗯，正如我之前提到的，我們已經做得非常出色，成功地將成本降低到目前的水平，使我們能夠提供這些服務，並且仍然有信心能夠收回提供這些基本強制性項目和服務所產生的費用。因此，我認為目前我們不會考慮進一步降低價格。

And then what's the timing or your expected timing for recouping those fees?

那麼，您預計何時或能否收回這些費用？

Well -- sorry. Yes, September.

哦——抱歉。是的，九月。

Your next question comes the line of Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利。

Just a quick one from me. Arne or Leeny, what percentage of your occupied room nights in 2019 were from guests originating from a flight?

我問個簡單的問題。 Arne 或 Leeny，你們 2019 年入住的客房夜數中，有多少百分比來自乘飛機抵達的客人？

We've asked that question, too. The -- you may have noticed that when you check into a hotel, we actually don't typically ask people how they came. And so we've looked at this a little bit based on other data sources. And it won't surprise you to learn that it varies dramatically from market to market. The select brands in the United States are going to be much less dependent on fly-to business than some markets, where, basically, you can't get there unless you fly. Think about the Canary Islands as an example. Our estimates is it's probably half, something like that. But again, in a way, you've got to be careful about a global average because it hides dramatic variation within it.

我們也問過這個問題。您可能已經注意到，當您辦理飯店入住手續時，我們通常不會詢問客人是如何抵達的。因此，我們根據其他資料來源對此進行了一些研究。您或許不會感到驚訝，因為不同市場的差異非常顯著。美國的精選品牌對「乘飛機抵達」的依賴程度遠低於某些市場，因為在某些市場，基本上只有乘飛機才能到達。以加那利群島為例，我們估計那裡的「乘飛機抵達」比例可能只有一半左右。但同樣，在某種程度上，您必須謹慎對待全球平均值，因為它掩蓋了其中巨大的差異。

That's helpful. And then if I could, just one quick follow-up. With respect to the -- I guess, it's $900 million of commercial paper outstanding right now. The next payments on that are -- have you any kind of sense of when that...

那很有幫助。如果可以的話，我再補充一個問題。關於——我猜，目前未償付的商業票據金額是9億美元。接下來的付款日期是—您大概知道什麼時候…

Yes. Mostly, in the third quarter.

是的。主要是在第三季。

Your next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

Can you tell me what percentage of your pipeline is under contract or approved, but has not yet begun construction? And Arne, you mentioned you haven't really seen an unusual amount of deals drop from the pipeline. Are you surprised by that? And I guess a lot of the conversation today seems to be around financing availability going forward. But from an owner's perspective, the economics of building today are certainly very different. So I guess, why wouldn't we see a lot of that particular segment of the pipeline go away, the segment that has not begun construction?

您能告訴我一下，您管道項目中已簽訂合約或已獲批准但尚未開工的部分佔比是多少嗎？還有，Arne，您提到您並沒有看到管道項目中出現異常多的取消交易。您對此感到驚訝嗎？我感覺現在大家討論的焦點似乎都集中在未來的融資管道。但從業主的角度來看，如今的建設經濟效益肯定與以往大不相同。所以我想，為什麼我們看不到管道項目中尚未開工建設的部分大量項目取消呢？

That's right, construction. So I think the number we shared with you, and jump in here, team, if I'm remembering this wrong, 230,000 of the 516,000 are under construction.

沒錯，是建築工地。所以我覺得我們之前跟大家分享的數字，如果我沒記錯的話，51.6萬套房屋中有23萬套正在興建中。

That's right.

這是正確的。

So that's, what, 40%, something like that. 45%, maybe.

所以，大概是40%左右吧。也可能是45%。

Yes, yes, yes.

是的，是的，是的。

In that range. And so that's the concrete number we can give you. I think the -- what happens with this balance that are not under construction over the course of the next couple of years, there's a few things to bear in mind here. One is that hotels are not entering that pipeline until typically they have been worked for the substantial period of time. It could be a year on average, although I'm guessing here a little bit, where an owner is identifying a site, doing a detailed work about how much it's going to cost to build it, doing performance about what the returns are going to be, and it is not -- even though it may not be under construction, it is something which is very serious. We're not putting deals in our pipeline, for example, just because somebody shows up and says, "I want to build a courtyard in X market, but I haven't identified the site yet" or "I haven't -- I don't have a sort of a specific deal to get done." And when viewed in that context, I don't think it is at all surprising that 60 days into a crisis like this one, that has a fairly uncertain path out, that people are being tentative about making permanent decisions about killing deals that they've worked on for a period of time.

就在這個範圍內。所以這是我們能給出的具體數字。我認為，未來幾年內，那些尚未動工的計畫會如何發展，有幾點需要注意。首先，飯店專案通常要經過相當長時間的籌備工作才會進入我們的專案儲備。平均來說，這可能需要一年（當然，這只是我的猜測），業主需要時間來選址，詳細評估建造成本，並預測預期收益。即使專案尚未開工，這也是一項非常重要的工作。例如，我們不會因為有人說「我想在X市場建造一個庭院，但我還沒找到合適的地點」或「我還沒有具體的專案要完成」就把專案納入我們的儲備。從這個角度來看，像這樣一場危機持續了 60 天，而且走出困境的路還相當不確定，人們對於終止他們已經努力了一段時間的交易持謹慎態度，這並不令人驚訝。

I think the second thing to bear in mind is, while we certainly have suffered a substantial hit in terms of top line performance, we will all be looking together to see what the best thinking can be about when that top line comes back, and for hotels that have not yet been built, what is the advantage that it's available to me if I can get it financed at lower construction costs. And if I'm not open, and I'm not going to be open for the 2 or 3 years that I need to be under construction, which may coincide with the weaker demand environment and also the weaker construction environment, my deal actually may be a decent deal, and I may decide to pursue it. I probably won't accelerate my construction until I get smarter about thinking that through. But there will be upsides as well as downsides associated with this weakness from projects that are not yet under construction.

我認為第二點要注意的是，雖然我們的營收確實遭受了相當大的打擊，但我們會共同探討，當營收回升時，如何才能找到最佳方案。對於尚未開工的飯店，如果能以較低的建設成本獲得融資，對我而言又有哪些優勢呢？如果我的飯店無法開業，而且在需要施工的2到3年內（這可能與需求疲軟和建築環境低迷的時期重合），那麼我的融資方案實際上可能相當划算，我或許會決定繼續推進。在更深入地思考這個問題之前，我可能不會加快建造進度。但對於尚未開工的計畫而言，這種疲軟的局面既有利也有弊。

Okay. Just a point of clarification, if I may. So you did give the number 45%, that's under construction. But that other 55%, are some of that conversions? Or are you saying that all that 55% is...

好的。請容許我澄清一下。您提到45%表示正在建設中。但剩下的55%是指部分轉換結果嗎？還是說這55%全部都是…

Yes, yes. I can give you that. So roughly 16,000 are pending conversion. And then, as we said in the press release, about 24,000 are approved, but not yet signed. All the rest are new build, pending construction starts. So call it roughly 240,000, broadly speaking.

是的，是的。我可以告訴你。大約有16,000套住房正在等待轉換。然後，正如我們在新聞稿中提到的，大約有24,000套住房已經獲得批准，但尚未簽署合約。其餘的都是新建住房，正在等待動工。所以，粗略估計，總共大約有24萬套房屋。

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Clarke of Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的理查克拉克的理論。

So the first one is just your view on rate. You've talked about offering a 20% discount for prepaid vouchers, but your rate is down just 1% in the last quarter on the hotels where you control it. But just how much you're willing to flex the rate to drive incremental demand.

第一個問題就是您對價格的看法。您曾提到為預付券提供20%的折扣，但您掌控的飯店價格在上個季度只下降了1%。那麼，您究竟願意在多大程度上靈活調整價格來刺激需求成長呢？

Well, I think we'll watch that, obviously. We want to make sure that we're not dropping rate to chase demand, which is not there and that obviously does nothing for us. At the same time, we compete in an industry, which is highly distributed in terms of its pricing, and this is one of the challenges that we bear. Perpetually, people view us as, "Okay. You're the largest hotel company in the world. Doesn't that give you pricing power?" Well, the fact of the matter is, even as the largest hotel company in the world, we only got -- what's our global distribution, Leeny, 14%, 15%, something like that, of all rooms in the world, and a significant number...

嗯，我們當然會密切關注。我們希望確保不會為了迎合需求而降價，因為需求並不旺盛，這樣做顯然對我們沒有任何好處。同時，我們身處在一個定價高度分散的行業，這也是我們面臨的挑戰之一。人們總是這樣看待我們：「好吧，你們是世界上最大的酒店集團，難道這不賦予你們定價權嗎？」但事實是，即使我們是世界上最大的酒店集團，我們也只佔全球客房總數的14%、15%左右，而且數量相當可觀…

7% globally, 16% -- North America is 16%.

全球佔 7%，北美佔 16%—北美佔 16%。

North America.

北美。

3% outside of the world.

3% 位於世界以外。

The -- and many of those rooms are priced by our franchisees, not priced by Marriott. And so we will -- we're not going to push rates down by any means. We're going to do everything we can to make sure that we're maintaining pricing power. But there will be price competition in our industry, too, as we try and get demand energized and coming back into the system. And we'll do the best we can to make the kinds of judgments that need to be made.

——而且許多房間的價格都是由我們的特許經營商定的，並非萬豪酒店統一定價。所以我們絕對不會壓低價格。我們會盡一切努力確保維持定價權。但隨著我們努力刺激需求，讓市場重新活躍起來，產業內也會出現價格競爭。我們會盡力做出必要的判斷。

And just a quick follow-up, if I may. Just the comment on incentive fees. You booked none this quarter, despite receiving some. Just whether I can understand how -- I wonder what process would you refund the incentive fees you receive. And what assumptions are you making to book now in the first quarter?

還有一個後續問題，請容許我補充一下。關於獎勵金，您本季雖然收到了獎勵金，但並沒有預訂任何項目。我不太明白您是如何操作的——我想知道您會如何退還收到的獎勵金？另外，您在第一季就預訂項目是基於哪些假設？

So as you know, you basically are looking every month at the expectation of the performance against the budget, and so -- and against a target, depending on what the contract requires. So if there's an owner's priority, then you need to have exceeded that but, again, based on that month's performance, expectations. The issue, however, becomes you don't actually technically earn it at the end of the year until you see what the full year performance is. So based on, for example, January and February, which were really terrific and really strong performance, we clearly were clicking along, doing well and, as I said, now would have locked in early on $64 million of incentive fees. However, even despite Greater China starting to really feel some impact in February and March, but when we look, knowing as we enter into April, that you're looking at 90% decline in RevPAR, our comfort that we can feel secure that we won't have to give those back is not great enough for us to feel like that we can recognize them as income.

如您所知，基本上每個月您都要將業績預期與預算進行比較，並根據合約要求設定目標。如果業主有優先目標，那麼您就需要超越該目標，但同樣，這取決於當月的業績預期。然而，問題在於，您實際上只有在看到全年業績後才能在年底獲得這筆款項。例如，1月和2月的業績非常出色，我們顯然進展順利，做得很好，正如我所說，我們本可以提前鎖定6400萬美元的激勵費用。然而，儘管大中華區在2月和3月開始受到一些影響，但當我們進入4月時，考慮到RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）下降了90%，我們無法確信不必退還這些款項，因此我們無法將其確認為收入。

Your final question will come from the line of Richard -- Rich Hightower of Evercore.

你的最後一個問題將來自理查德——Evercore 的 Rich Hightower。

So can you just help us understand the implied cost of capital for the $900-odd million of -- coming incrementally from the credit card agreements? Just help -- I know there's a lot of assumptions in there, but just help us understand that as a source versus other sources of capital.

所以，您能否幫我們理解一下，這9億美元左右的資金——也就是信用卡協議帶來的增量資金——的隱含資本成本是多少？我知道這裡面有很多假設，但請您幫我們理解一下，與其他資本來源相比，信用卡協議的成本是多少。

Sure. So let me do this and then, Arne, obviously, jump in. The -- think about it this way that as people spend on their credit cards, the -- our credit card issuers pay us an agreed amount of money based on that credit card spend, and that is to compensate us for, obviously, being a part of the Bonvoy program and also for being able to affiliate with the Marriott brands. So when you think about that kind of amount over a number of years, there's kind of an expectation about how much you could be collecting in revenues from the credit card companies. And basically, it's getting some of it upfront. So what will happen over the next several years is what they will pay us, based on the amount of credit card spend, will be moderately a modest amount less than they otherwise would have paid us. So if you think about it from a kind of classic cost of capital, it's extremely efficient and economic for Marriott to have. It also doesn't have, obviously, any of the classic characteristics of debt in terms of required repayment terms, et cetera. So it's really, again, overwhelmingly a reflection of monies that we received earlier that then will get essentially paid back by them paying us less than they otherwise would have over the next several years.

當然。那我先解釋一下，然後Arne當然可以插話。你可以這樣想：當人們使用信用卡消費時，我們的信用卡發卡機構會根據消費金額向我們支付一筆約定的費用，這筆費用顯然是為了補償我們加入萬豪旅享家計劃以及與萬豪品牌合作。所以，當你考慮到這筆費用累積數年後，你會預期能從信用卡公司獲得多少收入。基本上，我們能提前拿到一部分。因此，未來幾年，他們根據信用卡消費金額支付給我們的費用，會比他們原本應該支付給我們的金額略少。所以，如果你從傳統的資本成本角度來看，這對萬豪來說非常有效率且經濟。而且，顯然，它不具備傳統債務的任何特徵，例如還款期限等等。所以，這實際上主要反映了我們之前收到的款項，而這些款項將在未來幾年內透過他們支付給我們的金額比正常情況下要少的方式來償還。

And the cost is less than our last bond deal.

而且成本比我們上次的債券交易低。

Meaningfully.

有意義地。

Thank you all very much for your time this morning. The -- we appreciate, obviously, your interest in us and in the recovery of Marriott and the industry. Wishing nothing but the best, as we work our way through this challenging time as a business, as an industry and as a society. But know that we'll be there to welcome you as soon as you get back on the road with bells on. Thank you.

非常感謝各位今天上午抽空。我們當然很感激各位對我們、對萬豪酒店集團以及整個產業的復甦的關注。我們衷心祝福大家一切順利，共同度過這段充滿挑戰的時期，無論作為企業、產業或社會，都能取得成功。請記住，一旦您重返工作崗位，我們將隨時歡迎您的到來。謝謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

That does conclude today's conference call, you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以掛斷電話了。