萬豪國際 (MAR) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to Marriott International's First Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the call over to Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

下午好，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2019年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我將把電話轉交給總裁兼執行長阿恩·索倫森。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2019 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

大家下午好。歡迎參加我們2019年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；投資者關係資深副總裁 Laura Paugh；以及投資者關係高級總監 Betsy Dahm。

First, let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws.

首先，我要提醒大家，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued earlier today, along with our comments, are effective only today, May 10, 2019, and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們的評論僅在今天（2019 年 5 月 10 日）有效，不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。

In our discussion today, we will talk about results excluding merger-related costs and reimbursed revenues and related expenses. GAAP results appear on Page A-1 of the earnings release, but our remarks today will largely refer to the adjusted results that appear on the non-GAAP reconciliation pages. Of course, you can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks also on our website.

在今天的討論中，我們將討論不包括合併相關成本、已補償收入和相關費用的績效。GAAP 結果出現在盈利報告的 A-1 頁，但我們今天的演講將主要指非 GAAP 調整頁上顯示的調整後結果。當然，您也可以在我們的網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及我們在聲明中提到的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

Before proceeding to talk about our results, let me take a minute to talk about the announcement we made last week about my cancer diagnosis. As we mentioned, I have stage II pancreatic cancer. Thankfully, the medical team at Johns Hopkins has seen this many times before. They believe we have caught it early, that it is operable and that the course of treatment is prudent. I am grateful for all the messages of support from the investment community as well as from Marriott's community of associates and business partners around the world. With the support of an extraordinary strong team of Marriott executives, we are going to soldier on.

在繼續討論我們的結果之前，請允許我花一分鐘時間談談我們上週發布的關於我被診斷出癌症的消息。正如我們之前提到的，我患有第二期胰臟癌。值得慶幸的是，約翰霍普金斯大學的醫療團隊先前已經多次遇到這種情況。他們認為我們發現得早，病情可以手術治療，治療方案是明智的。我衷心感謝投資界以及萬豪酒店集團遍布全球的員工和商業夥伴的所有支持資訊。在萬豪集團一支實力雄厚的管理團隊的支持下，我們將繼續奮戰。

Now last month, we opened our 7,000th property, the 27-storey St. Regis Hong Kong. After opening this landmark hotel, our development pipeline at quarter end totaled roughly 475,000 rooms compared to 463,000 rooms at the end of the first quarter 2018. Gross room openings totaled nearly 19,000 rooms in the first quarter compared to 15,000 rooms in the year ago quarter. Net room openings were almost double from the number from the prior year.

上個月，我們開設了第 7000 家飯店，即 27 樓的聖。雷吉斯香港。這家地標性飯店開業後，截至季度末，我們的在建項目客房總數約為 475,000 間，而 2018 年第一季末為 463,000 間。第一季新增客房總數接近 19,000 間，去年同期為 15,000 間。淨新增客房數量幾乎是去年的兩倍。

Almost 216,000 rooms in our pipeline or 45% are already under construction, the largest number of under-construction rooms in our industry. At our current pace of openings, our under-construction pipeline represents the equivalent of 2.5 years of embedded gross rooms growth. The remainder of our pipeline represents another 2.5 years of growth.

我們目前正在建造的房間數量近 216,000 間，佔總房數的 45%，是業界在建房間數量最多的。以我們目前的開業速度，在建項目相當於 2.5 年的客房增長總量。我們剩餘的研發管線代表著未來2.5年的成長。

Our Legacy-Starwood brands account for roughly 30% of our development pipeline. Among our 17 luxury and upper upscale brands, the rooms pipeline for the Sheraton brand is second only in size to the Marriott brand. In the first quarter of 2019, we opened 4 new Sheraton hotels and signed 3 new Sheraton deals, including the new built 250-room Sheraton Hotel in Bradenton, Florida. More than 1/4 of Sheraton's existing portfolio is under or has committed to renovation.

我們旗下原喜達屋品牌約占我們開發案的 30%。在我們17個豪華和高檔品牌中，喜來登品牌的客房儲備規模僅次於萬豪品牌。2019 年第一季度，我們開設了 4 家新的喜來登酒店，並簽署了 3 項新的喜來登協議，其中包括在佛羅裡達州布雷登頓新建的擁有 250 間客房的喜來登酒店。喜來登現有酒店組合中，超過四分之一正在進行翻新或承諾進行翻新。

Our limited-service brands are growing rapidly. Globally, our limited-service pipeline, largely upscale brands, includes more than 285,000 rooms, nearly 2.5x the number of pipeline rooms in those brands 5 years ago. Outside North America, our limited-service pipeline is now nearly 3.5x its size in 2014.

我們的有限服務品牌正在快速成長。在全球範圍內，我們的有限服務型酒店項目（主要為高檔品牌）包括超過 285,000 間客房，幾乎是 5 年前這些品牌項目客房數量的 2.5 倍。在北美以外，我們的有限服務管道規模現在幾乎是 2014 年的 3.5 倍。

We are growing these brands in markets around the world with a variety of approaches from modular construction to urban high-rises to multi-brand hotel complexes. We are developing new prototype designs for Fairfield Inn and TownePlace Suites to better suit smaller markets, and we continue to add development talent to make these deals happen because the growth opportunity is meaningful.

我們正在世界各地的市場中發展這些品牌，採用各種方法，從模組化建築到城市高層建築，再到多品牌酒店綜合體。我們正在為 Fairfield Inn 和 TownePlace Suites 開發新的原型設計，以更好地適應較小的市場，並且我們不斷增加開發人才來促成這些交易，因為成長機會意義重大。

We see evidence that owners and franchisees prefer our brands. According to STR, more than 1 in 3 rooms that are under construction in the U.S. today will fly one of our flags. And while our existing distribution globally is more modest, still, 1 in 5 hotels under construction globally will be flagged with a Marriott brand.

我們發現有證據表明，業主和加盟商更喜歡我們的品牌。據STR稱，目前美國在建的房間中，超過三分之一將懸掛我們的國旗。雖然我們目前在全球的分佈規模較小，但全球在建酒店中仍有五分之一將掛有萬豪品牌。

We continue to expect to see net rooms growth to total approximately 5.5% in 2019 with rooms deletions of about 1% to 1.5%. We deleted 3,000 rooms in the first quarter of 2019.

我們繼續預期 2019 年淨客房成長率約為 5.5%，客房減少量約為 1% 至 1.5%。2019年第一季度，我們刪除了3,000間客房。

I visited several markets in China in late March. The big news there is Marriott Bonvoy and Alibaba. Less than 2 years ago, we formed a new joint venture with Alibaba to improve service and sales for Chinese guests. In the first quarter of 2019, property revenue from our newly designed Alibaba channel more than tripled year-over-year, while the level of new Marriott Bonvoy enrollments in China doubled over the prior year quarter. We are excited to welcome these new members to our hotels around the world.

三月下旬，我造訪了中國的幾個市場。最大的新聞是萬豪旅享家和阿里巴巴的合作。不到兩年前，我們與阿里巴巴成立了一家新的合資企業，旨在改善對中國客戶的服務和銷售。2019 年第一季度，我們新設計的阿里巴巴通路帶來的飯店營收年增超過三倍，而中國新註冊的萬豪旅享家會員數量比去年同期翻了一番。我們非常高興地歡迎這些新會員加入我們在全球各地的酒店。

Marriott Bonvoy offers guests the largest and most compelling collection of hotels and experiences. At the end of the first quarter, membership at Marriott Bonvoy reached nearly 130 million worldwide, up roughly 5 million from year-end 2018. Approximately 40% of the new sign-ups came from China. Worldwide loyalty redemption revenue at our hotels rose at a double-digit rate in the first quarter.

萬豪旅享家為賓客提供最豐富、最吸引人的飯店和體驗選擇。第一季末，萬豪旅享家全球會員人數接近 1.3 億，比 2018 年底增加了約 500 萬人。約 40% 的新註冊用戶來自中國。第一季度，我們旗下飯店的全球忠誠度兌換收入實現了兩位數的成長。

We recently announced our home rental initiative. In a survey we conducted in 2018, we found that over 1/4 of our loyalty program members who responded had used home rentals in the prior 12 months. During our home rental pilot in 2018, which was available in a few European cities, nearly 90% of our guests were Marriott Bonvoy members and over 80% were traveling for leisure. The average length of stay in our pilot was more than triple that for the hotel -- typical hotel guest.

我們最近宣布了房屋租賃計劃。我們在 2018 年進行的一項調查中發現，超過 1/4 的受訪忠誠度計畫會員在過去 12 個月內使用過房屋租賃服務。2018 年，我們在幾個歐洲城市開展了房屋租賃試點項目，近 90% 的客人是萬豪旅享家會員，超過 80% 的客人是休閒旅客。我們的試點計畫的平均停留時間是飯店（典型飯店客人）的三倍以上。

With a successful European pilot, we decided to launch Homes & Villas by Marriott International, offering guests access to a growing number of premium and luxury homes and villas in over 100 destinations across the U.S., Europe, the Caribbean and Latin America.

在歐洲試點計畫取得成功後，我們決定推出萬豪國際旗下 Homes & Villas，為賓客提供在美國、歐洲、加勒比海和拉丁美洲 100 多個目的地入住越來越多的優質豪華住宅和別墅的機會。

Our commitment to providing travelers with full residences, including kitchens and other amenities, guided our selection of homes. Our desire to complement our core hotel offerings similarly influenced our selection of markets. We will work with select property management companies who are already managing these homes and estimate roughly 40% of these markets we are launching in are new to Marriott.

我們致力於為旅行者提供設施齊全的住所，包括廚房和其他便利設施，這一理念指導了我們選擇房屋。我們希望完善我們的核心酒店產品，這種願望也影響了我們對市場的選擇。我們將與一些已經管理這些房屋的精選物業管理公司合作，據估計，在我們即將推出的這些市場中，約有 40% 對萬豪來說是全新的市場。

We believe our highly curated home rental product, fully integrated into our loyalty program for earning and redeeming points, will enhance Marriott Bonvoy member travel experiences and increase the value of our loyalty program. Home rental should enable our loyalty members to stay with Marriott throughout any travel experience, allow us to leverage our strong brands and expertise in an evolving competitive landscape and ultimately drive a greater share of wallet for our portfolio.

我們相信，我們精心打造的房屋租賃產品，與我們的積分賺取和兌換忠誠計劃完全整合，將提升萬豪旅享家會員的旅行體驗，並提高我們忠誠計劃的價值。房屋租賃應該能讓我們的忠誠會員在任何旅行體驗中都入住萬豪酒店，讓我們能夠在不斷變化的競爭環境中利用我們強大的品牌和專業知識，並最終為我們的投資組合帶來更大的市場份額。

In April, we signed a new multiyear agreement with Expedia, which should enhance our leisure packaging platform, Vacations by Marriott, and leverage Expedia's technology for a new business opportunity to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2019. With the changes in the agreement, we expect our owners and franchisees will see improved overall economics from the relationship.

今年 4 月，我們與 Expedia 簽署了一項新的多年協議，該協議將增強我們的休閒打包平台 Vacations by Marriott，並利用 Expedia 的技術，在 2019 年第四季度推出新的商業機會。隨著協議的修改，我們預計我們的業主和加盟商將從這種合作關係中獲得更好的整體經濟效益。

In the first quarter, worldwide house profit for comparable company-operated hotels increased an impressive 1.6%. While the integration is largely complete, our hotels continue to benefit from synergies associated with the Starwood merger.

第一季度，全球同類型公司自營酒店的利潤實現了令人矚目的 1.6% 的成長。雖然整合工作已基本完成，但我們的酒店將繼續受益於喜達屋合併帶來的綜效。

On the revenue side, we reduced discounting at Legacy-Starwood hotels in the first quarter and across our system, increased the proportion of bookings coming from our digital channels. Direct digital revenue bookings at our hotels globally increased over 20% in the quarter and now represent over 30% of room nights.

在收入方面，我們在第一季減少了原喜達屋酒店的折扣，並且在整個系統中減少了折扣，提高了來自我們數位管道的預訂比例。本季度，我們全球飯店的直接數位營收預訂成長超過 20%，目前佔客房夜數的 30% 以上。

Revenues booked on our mobile app increased more than 70% year-over-year while our revenues booked on OTAs worldwide declined 4%. Yielding OTA business helped hotel profitability even as it likely depressed our first quarter RevPAR growth by a few tenths of a percentage point. Our global RevPAR index rose 100 basis points in the quarter.

透過我們的行動應用程式預訂的收入年增超過 70%，而透過全球 OTA 預訂的收入下降了 4%。儘管OTA業務的收益可能使我們第一季的RevPAR成長率下降了零點幾個百分點，但仍幫助提高了飯店的獲利能力。本季我們的全球RevPAR指數上升了100個基點。

Let's talk briefly about the regions. System-wide constant dollar RevPAR in our Asia Pacific region increased 3% in the quarter. RevPAR growth was strong in India, Japan, Indonesia and in the major markets in Greater China but was somewhat offset by weaker results in South Korea, Thailand and the Hainan Island market in China.

我們來簡單談談各地區的情況。本季度，我們亞太地區的系統性固定美元RevPAR成長了3%。印度、日本、印尼和大中華區主要市場的RevPAR成長強勁，但韓國、泰國和中國海南島市場的疲軟表現在一定程度上抵消了這一成長。

In the second quarter, we expect mid-single-digit RevPAR growth in the region with fewer headwinds from South Korea and Hainan Island. Future RevPAR performance will depend somewhat on the economic impact of ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, particularly in markets that rely on manufacturing. While we await the outcome of those negotiations, our forecast assumes Asia Pacific RevPAR will increase at a mid-single-digit rate for the full year 2019.

第二季度，我們預計該地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將實現中等個位數成長，來自韓國和海南島的不利因素將有所減少。未來的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 表現將在一定程度上取決於正在進行的中美貿易談判的經濟影響，尤其是在依賴製造業的市場。在我們等待這些談判結果的同時，我們的預測假設亞太地區 2019 年全年每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以中等個位數的速度成長。

In the Middle East and Africa, system-wide constant dollar RevPAR declined 4% year-over-year. RevPAR growth in the U.A.E. declined 8% on flat demand as supply growth in Dubai increased by 11%. At the same time, RevPAR in Cairo and the Red Sea resorts rose sharply on strong Eastern European demand.

在中東和非洲，系統整體以固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入較去年同期下降了 4%。阿聯酋的每間可供出租客房收入成長由於杜拜供應成長11%，需求持平，導致該產業下滑8%。同時，由於東歐市場需求強勁，開羅和紅海度假勝地的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）大幅上升。

For the second quarter, we expect EMEA RevPAR will again decline, albeit less significantly than in the first quarter. Significant supply growth in Dubai is likely to persist, but we should see stronger demand in the holy cities in Saudi Arabia. Ramadan started May 6, 10 days earlier than last year, which should push some business travel in the region from second quarter to later in the year. For the full year, we expect RevPAR will decline at a low single-digit rate in the EMEA region.

我們預計第二季 EMEA 地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將再次下降，儘管下降幅度會小於第一季。杜拜的供應量可能會持續大幅成長，但我們應該會看到沙烏地阿拉伯聖城的需求更加強勁。今年的齋戒月從 5 月 6 日開始，比去年提前了 10 天，這應該會將該地區的一些商務旅行從第二季度推遲到今年晚些時候。我們預計，全年歐洲、中東和非洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將以較低的個位數速度下降。

In Europe, system-wide constant dollar RevPAR rose 2% in the first quarter. U.S. travel to many markets in Europe was strong with considerable numbers of loyalty redemptions. RevPAR in London increased by 4% year-over-year. At the same time, Brexit uncertainty kept many U.K. travelers at home, constraining growth in many warm-weather European destinations.

在歐洲，第一季系統整體的固定美元RevPAR成長了2%。美國遊客前往歐洲許多市場的旅行十分強勁，忠誠度積分兌換數量也相當可觀。倫敦的每間可供出租客房收入較去年同期成長 4%。同時，英國脫歐的不確定性導致許多英國遊客留在國內，限制了許多氣候溫暖的歐洲旅遊目的地的成長。

Travelers avoided center city Paris due to the continued yellow vest demonstrations. With the Biennale in Venice beginning this month and strong U.S. demand expected to continue in most markets, we believe RevPAR in Europe will increase at a mid-single-digit rate in the second quarter and for the full year.

由於「黃背心」運動持續進行，遊客們避開了巴黎市中心。隨著威尼斯雙年展本月開幕，預計美國市場在大多數市場仍將保持強勁需求，我們認為歐洲的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將在第二季度和全年以中等個位數的速度增長。

In the Caribbean and Latin America region, system-wide constant dollar RevPAR increased nearly 4% in the quarter. In the Caribbean, RevPAR rose 8% on strong demand as several U.S. airlines increased lift to the islands. RevPAR growth in Brazil was very strong on record demand during Carnival in Rio de Janeiro while continued travel warnings took RevPAR in Mexico down 3%. Looking ahead, we expect RevPAR growth in CALA will moderate a bit, increasing at a low single-digit rate in the second quarter and full year as competitor hotels reopen in the Caribbean.

在加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區，本季系統整體以固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入成長了近 4%。由於幾家美國航空公司增加了飛往加勒比海島嶼的航班，強勁的需求推動加勒比海地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增加了 8%。巴西的RevPAR成長非常強勁，這得益於裡約熱內盧嘉年華期間創紀錄的需求，而持續的旅遊警告導致墨西哥的RevPAR下降了3%。展望未來，我們預計 CALA 的 RevPAR 成長將略有放緩，隨著加勒比地區競爭對手酒店重新開業，第二季和全年的成長速度將保持在較低的個位數。

System-wide RevPAR in North America rose nearly 1% in the first quarter. RevPAR was constrained by the partial federal government shutdown in January, tough comparisons to hurricane recovery in Florida and Houston and the lingering impact from the fourth quarter labor strike in Hawaii. Excluding these factors, we estimate our system-wide RevPAR growth would have been roughly 70 basis points better than the reported number. Our RevPAR index in the U.S. increased nearly 100 basis points in the first quarter.

第一季度，北美地區的系統平均每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）增加了近1%。1 月聯邦政府部分停擺、佛羅裡達州和休士頓颶風災後重建的嚴峻形勢以及夏威夷第四季勞工罷工的持續影響，都限制了每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)。排除這些因素，我們估計我們系統整體的RevPAR成長將比報告的數字高出約70個基點。第一季度，我們在美國的平均每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）指數增加了近100個基點。

Group RevPAR across North America increased 3% on strong citywide demand in Atlanta and San Francisco and the favorable impact of the timing of Easter. While Easter timing will present a headwind for group business in the second quarter, the negative hurricane and government shutdown impacts should be behind us.

受亞特蘭大和舊金山強勁的城市需求以及復活節的有利時機影響，北美地區的集團每間可供出租客房收入增長了 3%。雖然復活節假期的安排會在第二季度對集團業務帶來不利影響，但颶風和政府停擺的負面影響應該已經過去了。

Our group revenue booking pace for the full year 2019 is flat. New bookings for 2019 increased in the first quarter and surged in April. So we expect group RevPAR will be higher for the year. First quarter transient RevPAR from our largest 300 corporate accounts in North America rose 3%, but overall transient RevPAR was flattish in the first quarter largely due to weak demand in March. Given this, we expect North American RevPAR will increase by 1% to 2% in the second quarter and 1% to 3% for the full year.

我們集團2019年全年的營收預訂速度持平。2019 年新預訂量在第一季有所增長，並在 4 月激增。因此，我們預計今年集團每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將會更高。第一季北美地區最大的 300 家企業客戶的臨時客貨每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 3%，但由於 3 月份需求疲軟，第一季整體臨時客貨每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 基本持平。有鑑於此，我們預計北美地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在第二季將成長 1% 至 2%，全年將成長 1% 至 3%。

Marriott is a dynamic company. We've created a powerful lodging portfolio, managing and franchising across the highest value tiers. With the Starwood acquisition, we recognize that we are in a unique position to truly delight sophisticated frequent travelers with an unparalleled loyalty program and a wide range of travel experiences. The more our guests are engaged in our loyalty program, the more profitable business opportunities we can pursue, even outside the traditional lodging space such as credit card and residential branding.

萬豪是一家充滿活力的公司。我們打造了一個強大的住宿產品組合，在最高價值層級進行管理和特許經營。透過收購喜達屋酒店集團，我們意識到我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠透過無與倫比的忠誠度計劃和豐富的旅行體驗，真正讓眼光獨到的常旅客感到滿意。我們的客人越積極參與我們的會員計劃，我們就能追求越多的獲利商機，即使在傳統的住宿領域之外，例如信用卡和住宅品牌推廣。

This year, we expect to earn $440 million to $450 million in credit card and residential branding fees. Incidentally, credit card sign-ups rose 20% in the first quarter year-over-year. In addition to unit additions and RevPAR growth, such opportunities should drive higher returns to our shareholders even as we retain our asset-light approach to business.

今年，我們預計信用卡和住宅品牌推廣費收入將達到 4.4 億美元至 4.5 億美元。順便一提，今年第一季信用卡註冊量年增了 20%。除了增加單位數量和提高每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長外，即使我們保持輕資產的業務模式，這些機會也應該能為我們的股東帶來更高的回報。

Before turning the call over to Leeny Oberg, let me take a moment to recognize our extraordinary Investor Relations leader, Laura Paugh. We announced this morning that Laura will retire from Marriott at year-end. Laura Paugh's nearly 40 years at Marriott have literally included our entire history of modern-day investor relations.

在將電話轉交給 Leeny Oberg 之前，請允許我花一點時間來表揚我們傑出的投資者關係負責人 Laura Paugh。我們今天早上宣布，勞拉將於年底從萬豪酒店退休。Laura Paugh 在萬豪酒店工作了近 40 年，她親歷了我們現代投資者關係發展的整個歷史。

When she began, Marriott, like many other companies, did not even do quarterly earnings calls such as this one. She has not only built this discipline for us, she has been recognized by you as one of the best investor relations professionals in the entire public company universe, not just the hospitality space. She has been a partner, a mentor and a friend to me for over 20 years of involvement in investor relations. All of us are grateful for her service and expertise. Thank you, Laura.

她剛入行時，萬豪酒店和許多其他公司一樣，甚至沒有像這樣的季度財報電話會議。她不僅為我們建立了這種紀律，而且被你們公認為整個上市公司領域（而不僅僅是酒店業）最優秀的投資者關係專業人士之一。在過去 20 多年的投資人關係工作中，她一直是我的合作夥伴、導師和朋友。我們所有人都對她的服務和專業技能表示感謝。謝謝你，勞拉。

Now for some more thoughts about first quarter performance and our outlook, let me turn things over to Leeny.

現在，讓我們把麥克風交給李尼，讓他來談談第一季的業績和展望。

Thank you, Arne. I too would like to express my deep appreciation for Laura's countless contributions and dedication to our company. Her strategic insights and determination to get the right answers have no doubt contributed meaningfully to our shareholder value over the years. While I will personally miss her a great deal, I know you will all join me in wishing her a very happy retirement and celebrating her accomplishments during the rest of this year.

謝謝你，阿恩。我也要對勞拉為我們公司所做的無數貢獻和奉獻表示深深的感謝。毫無疑問，她敏銳的策略眼光和尋求正確答案的決心，多年來為我們的股東價值做出了重要貢獻。雖然我個人會非常想念她，但我知道你們都會和我一樣，祝她退休生活幸福美滿，並在今年餘下的時間裡慶祝她所取得的成就。

Now on to the results. For the first quarter of 2019, adjusted diluted earnings per share totaled $1.41 compared to $1.34 in the year ago quarter. This was $0.08 over the midpoint of our guidance of $1.30 to $1.35 largely due to better-than-expected windfall tax benefits and other favorable discrete items on the tax line. Recall that in the prior year quarter, adjusted EPS included $0.11 from gains on hotel sales.

接下來公佈結果。2019 年第一季度，經調整後的稀釋每股收益總計 1.41 美元，而去年同期為 1.34 美元。這比我們先前預測的 1.30 美元至 1.35 美元的中點高出 0.08 美元，主要是由於意外的稅收優惠和其他有利的稅收項目。回想一下，上年同期調整後的每股盈餘包括飯店銷售收益 0.11 美元。

Gross fee revenues totaled $895 million, a 6% increase year-over-year, largely due to unit growth and higher incentive fees and credit card branding fees. Incentive fees increased 5% with good margin performance and strength at our Florida and California resorts during their strong seasons. Credit card fees alone totaled $93 million, up 8% while other nonproperty fees totaled $39 million.

總手續費收入達 8.95 億美元，年增 6%，主要原因是單位數量增長以及更高的激勵費用和信用卡品牌推廣費。在佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州度假村的旺季，由於良好的利潤表現和強勁的業績，獎勵費用增加了 5%。光是信用卡手續費就高達 9,300 萬美元，成長了 8%；其他非房產費用總計 3,900 萬美元。

With a stronger U.S. dollar, first quarter fee revenue reflected nearly $7 million of year-over-year unfavorable impact from foreign exchange net of hedges. Owned, leased and other revenue net of expenses totaled $50 million in the first quarter, a $20 million decline from the prior year due to $21 million of lower termination fees.

由於美元走強，第一季手續費收入反映了扣除對沖後的外匯匯率淨值近 700 萬美元的年比不利影響。第一季度，自有資產、租賃資產和其他資產淨收入扣除支出後總計 5,000 萬美元，比去年同期減少 2,000 萬美元，因為終止費減少了 2,100 萬美元。

General and administrative expenses totaled $222 million compared to $247 million in the prior year quarter. G&A in the first quarter of 2018 included a $35 million expense for a supplementary retirement savings plan contribution.

一般及行政費用總計 2.22 億美元，而去年同期為 2.47 億美元。2018 年第一季的 G&A 費用包括 3,500 萬美元的補充退休儲蓄計畫繳款。

First quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 7% year-over-year to $821 million, consistent with our 6% to 10% growth guidance. While not included in adjusted EBITDA, expenses associated with last year's data security incident totaled $44 million in the first quarter netted against $46 million of insurance recovery.

第一季調整後 EBITDA 年成長 7% 至 8.21 億美元，與我們 6% 至 10% 的成長預期一致。雖然未計入調整後的 EBITDA，但與去年資料安全事件相關的支出在第一季總計 4,400 萬美元，扣除 4,600 萬美元的保險賠償金後，總額為 4,400 萬美元。

We expect gross fee revenue for the second quarter will total $990 million to $1.01 billion, a 4% to 6% increase over the prior year. Our second quarter fee revenue estimate assumes higher credit card branding fees but modestly lower incentive fees due to property renovations and unfavorable foreign exchange. We expect owned, leased and other revenue net of direct expenses will total roughly $80 million in the second quarter while G&A should be $225 million to $230 million.

我們預計第二季總費用收入將達到 9.9 億美元至 10.1 億美元，比上年同期成長 4% 至 6%。我們第二季的費用收入預測假設信用卡品牌推廣費較高，但由於物業翻新和不利的匯率影響，激勵費略有下降。我們預計第二季自有、租賃和其他收入扣除直接費用後總計約為 8,000 萬美元，而一般及行政費用應為 2.25 億美元至 2.3 億美元。

Our guidance assumes no further asset sales in 2019 beyond those that have already been completed. These assumptions yield $1.52 to $1.58 diluted earnings per share for the second quarter. Recall that the second quarter last year included $0.26 in gains from the sale of hotels. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter should total $940 million to $965 million, flat to up 3% over the prior year.

我們的預測假設2019年除了已經完成的資產出售外，不會再有其他資產出售。根據這些假設，第二季稀釋後每股收益為 1.52 美元至 1.58 美元。請記住，去年第二季度包括出售酒店所得的 0.26 美元收益。第二季調整後 EBITDA 總額應為 9.4 億美元至 9.65 億美元，與上年同期持平或成長 3%。

For the full year 2019, we believe gross fee revenue could increase 6% to 8% over the prior year with about $15 million over our last guidance due to stronger expected incentive fees. We believe incentive fees will increase at a mid-single-digit rate for the year and continue to expect our credit card and residential branding fees will total $440 million to $450 million in 2019. Last year, our gross fees were constrained by strikes in several markets in the fourth quarter.

我們認為，由於預期激勵費用的增加，2019 年全年總費用收入可能會比前一年增加 6% 至 8%，比我們先前預期的高出約 1,500 萬美元。我們認為，激勵費用將在今年以中等個位數的速度成長，並繼續預計 2019 年我們的信用卡和住宅品牌推廣費用總額將達到 4.4 億美元至 4.5 億美元。去年第四季度，由於多個市場的罷工，我們的總收入受到了限制。

Owned, leased and other revenue net of direct expense should total roughly $285 million to $295 million for the year, a roughly $40 million decline year-over-year. Termination fees totaled $69 million in 2018, and we expect such fees will total $25 million to $30 million in 2019, a bit improved from our prior forecast for this year.

扣除直接支出後，自有、租賃和其他收入全年總計約 2.85 億美元至 2.95 億美元，比上年減少約 4,000 萬美元。2018 年終止費用總額為 6,900 萬美元，我們預計 2019 年此類費用總額將達到 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元，比我們先前對今年的預測略有改善。

Results from our Marriott Homes & Villas business will be included in the owned, leased and other line and are expected to be immaterial. G&A should total $920 million to $930 million for 2019, about $10 million higher than our last estimate due to higher bad debt expense and admin spending.

萬豪別墅業務的業績將計入自有、租賃及其他業務項下，預計不會產生重大影響。2019 年一般及行政費用總額應為 9.2 億美元至 9.3 億美元，比我們上次的估計高出約 1,000 萬美元，原因是壞帳支出和管理支出增加。

These assumptions yield $5.97 to $6.19 diluted earnings per share for 2019. Recall that the prior year included $0.65 in gains from the sale of owned and joint venture assets.

根據這些假設，2019 年稀釋後每股收益為 5.97 美元至 6.19 美元。回想一下，上一年包括出售自有資產和合資資產所得的 0.65 美元收益。

Adjusted EBITDA should total $3.615 billion to $3.715 billion, 4% to 7% over 2018 adjusted EBITDA, an estimate that is unchanged from last quarter. As we discussed last quarter, our 2019 guidance does not include merger-related costs and the timing impact of reimbursed revenues and expenses.

調整後 EBITDA 總額應為 36.15 億美元至 37.15 億美元，比 2018 年調整後 EBITDA 成長 4% 至 7%，這一估計與上一季持平。正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們的 2019 年業績指引不包括與合併相關的成本以及報銷收入和支出的時間影響。

Investment spending for the year could total $600 million to $800 million, including roughly $225 million of maintenance spending. The remainder includes capital expenditures, loan advances, equity investments and contract investments. Roughly 1/4 of our total investment spending relates to systems initiatives that should be reimbursed over time.

今年的投資支出總額可能達到 6 億至 8 億美元，其中包括約 2.25 億美元的維護支出。其餘部分包括資本支出、貸款預付款、股權投資和合約投資。我們總投資支出中約有 1/4 與系統性項目有關，這些項目應該會在一段時間內得到補償。

We repurchased nearly 8 million shares from January 1 through May 8 for nearly $1.2 billion and continue to expect to return at least $3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2019. This assumes no further asset sales during the year.

從 1 月 1 日至 5 月 8 日，我們回購了近 800 萬股股票，金額近 12 億美元，並繼續預計在 2019 年透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還至少 30 億美元。前提是年內不會再有其他資產出售。

Our balance sheet remains in great shape. At March 31, our debt ratio was within our targeted credit standard of 3x to 3.5x adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR. We have modeled our 2019 income statement and cash flow forecast at a 3.3x target.

我們的資產負債表依然保持良好狀態。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的負債比率在目標信貸標準範圍內，即調整後債務與 EBITDAR 比率為 3 倍至 3.5 倍。我們以 3.3 倍的目標倍數對 2019 年的損益表和現金流量預測進行了建模。

Now Laura would like to add a few remarks.

現在勞拉想補充幾點。

Thanks, Leeny, and thanks for all the kind things both you and Arne have said. I have to say that the best part of my job at Investor Relations at Marriott is working with some very talented colleagues. IR is a team effort, not only including the gifted Betsy Dahm and Laura Pearce, but many, many people throughout the organization, including the broad senior management team.

謝謝你，Leeny，也謝謝你和Arne說的所有好話。我必須說，我在萬豪酒店投資者關係部門工作中最大的樂趣就是能與一些非常有才華的同事共事。投資者關係是一項團隊工作，不僅包括才華橫溢的 Betsy Dahm 和 Laura Pearce，還包括組織內的許多許多人，包括廣泛的高級管理團隊。

When we talk about the collaborative nature of Marriott culture, it is not just a nice story. We have a very good time in IR as I think you can tell. We laugh a lot. We love working with Arne and Leeny. They are just as smart, forthcoming and engaged as they seem.

當我們談到萬豪文化的協作性時，這不僅僅是一個美好的故事。正如你所看到的，我們在IR部門過得非常愉快。我們笑聲不斷。我們很喜歡和Arne和Leeny一起工作。他們和看起來一樣聰明、坦率、積極。

The other best part of my job in IR is working with all of you. I'm always -- someone's here. I'm always happiest when the phone rings and you want to talk about Marriott, our competitors, the OTAs, the economy or your summer vacation. In many years I've done IR, I've seen the market move from unreasonable exuberance to irrational despair and back.

我在IR工作中另一個最棒的部分就是能和大家一起工作。我總是——有人在這裡。每當電話鈴響，你想和我聊聊萬豪酒店、我們的競爭對手、線上旅行社、經濟狀況或你的暑假旅行時，我總是最開心的。在我從事投資者關係工作的這些年裡，我目睹了市場從非理性的狂熱到非理性的絕望，然後再回到狂熱。

I know you faced meaningful pressure to deliver results, and I hope I've helped you as you've evaluated the company. I'll be here through the end of the year and look forward to seeing many of you in person at conferences and meetings in the next few months.

我知道你面臨著取得業績的巨大壓力，我希望我的話能對你評估公司有所幫助。我將待到年底，期待在接下來的幾個月裡在各種會議和活動中與大家見面。

So let's answer your questions. (Operator Instructions) We'll take your questions now.

那麼，讓我們來回答你們的問題。（操作說明）現在開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of David Katz of Jefferies.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 公司的 David Katz。

I have to admit I had probably 4 or 5 questions in my head and I'm struggling to remember any of them. I just wanted to wish all of you the best. But what I did want to talk about is, we've started to get into a range where just industry-wide, some of the metrics have started to be a bit choppy, and yet the cash generation remains powerfully strong.

我必須承認，我腦子裡可能原本有四、五個問題，但我現在一個也想不起來了。我只想祝你們一切順利。但我確實想談談的是，我們已經開始進入一個產業整體指標波動的區間，但現金流依然強勁。

If we were to paint a scenario, and I don't think you got quite this draconian at your Analyst Meeting, but if we were to start to talk about RevPAR that was down, call it, 2% to 5%, have you sort of penciled out what the cash would look like and how your decision process would be altered under those kinds of circumstances? And I'm again not calling or wishing for it, just thinking out loud.

如果我們設想這樣一個場景（雖然我認為你在分析師會議上並沒有提出如此嚴苛的方案），如果我們開始討論每間可供出租客房收入下降2%到5%的情況，你是否大致估算過現金流狀況以及在這種情況下你的決策過程會發生怎樣的變化？我再次聲明，我不是在呼喚或祈求什麼，只是自言自語而已。

Yes. I think Leeny can jump in here. I think the best place for you to refer in terms of the financial model is to what we shared with you at the Investor Relations meeting. And you can do some of your own calibration of that and make some assumptions and probably be fairly close. We don't have a model of it than that one that we shared with you then.

是的。我覺得Leeny可以加入進來。我認為，關於財務模型，您最好的參考資料是我們在投資者關係會議上與您分享的內容。你可以自己進行一些校準，做一些假設，結果可能相當接近實際情況。除了我們當時分享給你的那個模型之外，我們沒有其他模型了。

And I guess I'd just say thematically that while March was a disappointing month in many respects, it is to us not a harbinger of a predictably different environment than the one that we've been going through the last few quarters. Sort of thematically today, I think we would say it's steady as she goes for the next few quarters. We continue to see that when we adjust for hurricanes and strikes and holidays and the like that we're poking along broadly between -- broadly around 1.5% sort of RevPAR growth. We might have been 1/10 or 2 shy of that in first quarter 2019. But there is some good news too.

我想說的是，雖然三月在許多方面都令人失望，但對我們來說，這並不意味著未來的環境會與我們過去幾季所經歷的環境截然不同。從今天的主題來看，我認為我們可以說，在接下來的幾個季度裡，她的狀態會保持穩定。我們繼續看到，即使考慮到颶風、罷工、假日等因素，我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長率仍然大致在 1.5% 左右。2019 年第一季度，我們可能只差十分之一或十分之二就能達到這個目標。但也有好消息。

We talked about good April bookings, for example, in group, a very strong performance for us for the month. And so while you should do whatever modeling you think is appropriate and make whatever forecast you think is appropriate, I think our caution to all of us would be let's just expect for now that we're going to keep going at sort of the pace we've been going in the last few quarters.

例如，我們談到了四月份良好的團體預訂情況，這對我們來說是一個非常強勁的月份業績。因此，雖然你應該進行任何你認為合適的建模，並做出你認為合適的任何預測，但我認為我們應該提醒大家的是，目前我們只需預期我們將繼續以過去幾個季度以來的速度發展即可。

The only thing I'll add, David, is -- and we did do a model that actually did assume a 5% decline in RevPAR as part of what we talked about at the Security Analyst Meeting. And I'll point out a couple things. One, we're obviously far less dependent on your classic North American incentive fees when you look at both our growth internationally as well as the credit card fees.

David，我唯一要補充的是——我們確實做了一個模型，該模型實際上假設了每間可供出租客房收入下降 5%，這是我們在安全分析師會議上討論的內容之一。我還要指出幾點。首先，從我們在國際上的成長以及信用卡費用來看，我們顯然對傳統的北美激勵費用的依賴程度要低得多。

And then second of all, I'll talk that even in the Great Recession, we ended up with the lowest year being 3% growth in net rooms. And so when you continue to see that sturdy, strong rooms growth and a clearly less volatile franchise and management fee stream, I think it bodes well for really strong cash generation if we were looking at a recession.

其次，我想說的是，即使在經濟大衰退期間，我們的淨客房成長率也只有 3%，創歷史新低。因此，當您看到客房數量持續穩健成長，特許經營費和管理費收入明顯波動較小時，我認為這預示著，如果我們面臨經濟衰退，這將帶來非常強勁的現金流。

Great. And my one follow-up literally is you made reference to bad debt expense, which I -- just looking back quickly, I'm not sure that we've seen that in some of the prior quarters. What's in there?

偉大的。我還有一個後續問題，您提到了壞帳支出，我——快速回顧一下，我不確定我們在之前的幾個季度中是否看到過這種情況。裡面是什麼？

For sure. That's part of G&A and that's obviously when you end up with, let's say, a terminated hotel that, as part of what happens, you end up not getting all of your reimbursed costs back. It is in the G&A line. It can be a little bit lumpy. It's a really small number.

一定。這是管理費用的一部分，顯然，當你最終遇到，比如說，一家終止合作的酒店，作為交易的一部分，你最終無法收回所有已報銷的費用時，就會出現這種情況。它屬於一般及行政管理類。它可能有點凹凸不平。這是一個非常小的數字。

But then obviously, as we've said this year for our G&A, as part of the increase in the overall G&A that we forecast for the company, about $5 million of that is from bad debt. That's related to a few international hotel situations in Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific that I think the easiest way to describe is one-off situations. But as you might imagine, the bad debt number for the company overall is way immaterial.

但很顯然，正如我們今年在一般及行政費用中所說的那樣，在我們預測的公司整體一般及行政費用增長中，約有 500 萬美元來自壞帳。這與中東、非洲和亞太地區的一些國際飯店情況有關，我認為最簡單的描述方式就是一次性事件。但正如你所想，公司整體的壞帳數字根本無關緊要。

Our next question comes from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

I'd like to, yes, say my best wishes to you, Arne, on a speedy recovery, and congratulations to Laura on what's been an incredible career. So my question will be on -- just going over to the RevPAR performance that you saw on the quarter. I think as we look through the metrics that you provide, the numbers that stand out to us were -- we look through the Legacy-Starwood brands. I think most of those, at least on the full-service side, seem to underperform some of the chain scale averages and some of the performance that we saw in the Marriott legacy brands.

是的，我想對阿恩說聲祝福你早日康復，也恭喜勞拉擁有如此輝煌的職業生涯。所以我的問題是關於——就拿你們在本季看到的RevPAR表現來說吧。我認為，當我們查看您提供的指標時，最讓我們印象深刻的是——我們查看了 Legacy-Starwood 品牌。我認為，至少在全服務酒店方面，大多數酒店的表現似乎都低於連鎖酒店的平均水平，也低於萬豪傳統品牌的表現。

I know these numbers bounce around, and we're always ones to pick at little patterns, but could you just elaborate a little bit on that? And I think Arne, in your prepared remarks, you may have mentioned something about a reduction of discounting. So did that drive some of that RevPAR performance? Or what should we expect going forward as you continue your integration path?

我知道這些數字會有波動，我們也總是喜歡挑剔一些小規律，但您能否再詳細說明？我覺得阿恩，你在事先準備好的發言稿中可能提到降低貼現率的事情。那麼，這是否對RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）的業績產生了一定影響？或者，隨著你們繼續推進整合進程，我們應該對未來抱持什麼樣的預期？

Yes. I think there are a few different factors that are going into this, but it's a perfectly fair question. As -- one of the things I think we -- to start with here is geographic distribution. So if you look at Smith Travel industry-wide numbers for Q1, you see a 4-point difference in RevPAR performance between the top 25 markets and all others. The top 25 markets in the U.S., according to Smith Travel, were down roughly 1%, 1 full percent in RevPAR. The other markets were up 3%. So you've got a 4-point difference in RevPAR performance between those markets. Obviously, that's industry as a whole. That's not Marriott's portfolio uniquely.

是的。我認為這個問題涉及幾個不同的因素，但這確實是一個合理的問題。我認為我們首先要考慮的一點是地理分佈。因此，如果您查看 Smith Travel 行業第一季的整體數據，您會發現前 25 個市場與其他所有市場之間的 RevPAR 表現存在 4 個百分點的差異。據史密斯旅遊公司稱，美國前 25 個市場的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 下降了約 1%，下降了整整 1%。其他市場上漲了3%。所以這兩個市場的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 表現相差 4 個百分點。顯然，這是整個行業的情況。這並非萬豪酒店集團獨有的特色。

And I think when you look at Marriott in its entirety compared to some others in the industry or when you look at some of the Starwood brands compared to some of the Marriott brands, I think you will find that we are much more concentrated in the top 25 markets, and that is inevitably part of this. When we look at the Marriott brands legacy versus Starwood brands legacy, we can see a couple of other things that are happening. One is the strike carryover in Hawaii, particularly where our bookings are a little bit longer window. First quarter was continued -- they had some strike impact even though the strikes were done. That is disproportionately impacting the Starwood Hotels.

我認為，當你把萬豪酒店集團整體與業內其他一些酒店集團進行比較，或者把喜達屋旗下的一些品牌與萬豪旗下的一些品牌進行比較時，你會發現我們更加集中在前 25 大市場，而這必然是其中的一部分。當我們比較萬豪品牌的歷史和喜達屋品牌的歷史時，我們還可以看到其他一些正在發生的事情。一是夏威夷的罷工影響，尤其是在那裡，我們的預訂窗口期稍長。第一季仍在進行中——儘管罷工已經結束，但仍受到一些影響。這給喜達屋酒店集團造成了不成比例的影響。

I think the second would be around OTAs, and we called out in the prepared remarks that OTA business is down 4% for the combined portfolio in Q1. Interestingly, the Starwood Hotels were about 10 points more reliant on OTAs than the Marriott Hotels were. And as we've gone to one reservation system and one sort of unified revenue management strategy, the shift, if you will, from reliance on those third-party OTAs to internal digital channels probably costs a little bit. We thought it's maybe a few tenths of a point for the portfolio as a whole. The impact there is probably a bit more disproportionate on the Starwood Hotels.

我認為第二個問題與線上旅行社 (OTA) 有關，我們在準備好的演講稿中指出，第一季 OTA 業務在合併投資組合中下降了 4%。有趣的是，喜達屋酒店對線上旅行社的依賴程度比萬豪酒店高出約 10 分。隨著我們採用統一的預訂系統和統一的收益管理策略，從依賴第三方線上旅行社轉向內部數位管道，這種轉變可能會帶來一些成本。我們認為這可能對整個投資組合的影響只有零點幾個百分點。這種情況對喜達屋酒店的影響可能更為不成比例。

And then there are some changes on other discounting. Starwood had some deeper discount packaging that Marriott did not have. That's probably had an impact in it. But you roll all those things together, those are probably the principal drivers of the difference in the averages beneath, of course, the portfolio as a whole, you're going to have individual stories with individual assets.

此外，其他折扣方面也有一些變化。喜達屋有一些萬豪所沒有的更大幅度的折扣套餐。那可能對結果產生了一定影響。但把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮，這些可能就是造成下方平均值差異的主要驅動因素，當然，就整個投資組合而言，個別資產的情況也會有所不同。

And I guess the -- my quick follow-up would then be just any changes you guys think about the broader integration process. And I know when the deal was originally contemplated, I think there was some down-the-road revenue synergy opportunities that you were probably envisioning. Just kind of how you think about those in the context of what you're actually able to deliver right now?

那麼，我的下一個問題是，你們對更廣泛的整合過程有什麼想法嗎？我知道當初考慮這筆交易的時候，我想你們可能也設想過一些未來的收入綜效機會。你如何看待這些問題，以及這些問題與你目前實際能夠提供的服務之間的關係？

Yes. And I think the time is right for that. I mean we've got the combined loyalty program launched. It is in market and being marketed. We've got strong credit card sign-ups. We've got strong share of wallet growth. I think there's a lot we can look at now to be optimistic about the future, and I think it's time to deliver the revenue upside.

是的。我認為現在正是時候。我的意思是，我們已經推出了聯合會員忠誠度計劃。它已上市並正在進行市場推廣。我們的信用卡註冊量非常可觀。我們的市佔率成長強勁。我認為現在有很多因素讓我們對未來保持樂觀，我認為現在是時候實現營收成長了。

Our next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

Just to stick with the same line of questioning here. I mean you called out RevPAR index being up 100 basis points. And we saw pretty sizable increases from your peers as well. So I guess is the conclusion that the independents are just meaningfully losing RevPAR share right now? And then on that idea, how do you think about the value proposition of branding today versus in the past? Because presumably, there's more value for owners today than there's really ever been. And does that give you the ability to push royalty rates a little bit harder?

就讓我們繼續沿著同樣的提問思路來問吧。我的意思是，你指出了RevPAR指數上漲了100個基點。我們也看到同行們的成長幅度相當可觀。所以我的結論是，目前獨立飯店正在大幅失去每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）份額嗎？那麼，基於這個觀點，您認為當今品牌價值主張與過去相比有何不同？因為想必如今業主所擁有的價值比以往任何時候都更高。這是否意味著你有能力進一步提高版稅率？

Wouldn't that be nice? I mean I -- obviously, you won't hear us be unbiased about the value of branding. We think we deliver extraordinary value to our owner and franchisee partners by plugging them into a system with a loyalty program and a very efficient reservation system that delivers substantial business to them at meaningfully less cost than would be the case otherwise.

那豈不是很好嗎？我的意思是——顯然，你不會聽到我們對品牌價值保持客觀中立。我們認為，透過將業主和加盟商合作夥伴連接到一個擁有忠誠度計劃和高效預訂系統的系統，我們為他們帶來了非凡的價值，該系統能夠以比其他方式低得多的成本為他們帶來可觀的業務。

But I don't think you need to take our word for it. If you look at what's happening with the development pipeline, and we've talked about some of those statistics, but we're about 7% of the global industry today with something like 20% of the hotels under construction heading towards our brands. So you can see investors, owners of real estate moving with their feet because I think they see the strength of that.

但我認為你不必完全相信我們的話。如果你看看開發案的進度，我們已經討論過一些統計數據，但目前我們在全球產業中約佔 7% 的份額，而正在建設中的飯店中約有 20% 都屬於我們的品牌。所以你可以看到投資者和房地產所有者都在積極行動，因為我認為他們看到了其中的優勢。

I think the other thing to remind everybody, and we don't want to get defensive-sounding and we don't want to get too technical on RevPAR index, but RevPAR index is a really important tool, particularly when you're looking at an individual hotel and how it's performing in its competitive set.

我想提醒大家另一件事，我們不想顯得像是在辯解，也不想過多地討論RevPAR指數的技術細節，但RevPAR指數確實是一個非常重要的工具，尤其是當你考察一家酒店及其在競爭對手中的表現時。

But it is not the only measure that is out there to assess how portfolios are performing. In the wake of acquiring Starwood, we have found that many of our competitive sets include many of our own hotels because there will be a concentration, particularly in some of these urban markets, where we've got a significant number of full-service hotels. And so we're measuring our performance against our own hotels, not exclusively because we've got to have some others that are in there.

但這並非評估投資組合表現的唯一指標。在收購喜達屋之後，我們發現許多競爭對手都擁有我們自己的酒店，因為市場集中度會很高，尤其是在一些城市市場，我們擁有大量的全方位服務酒店。因此，我們衡量自身酒店的業績，並非僅以我們自己的酒店為基準，因為我們也必須將其他酒店納入考慮。

And similarly, we are seeing, to some extent, others who are competing in markets that we don't exist in. And so -- if you think about the secondary or some of the tertiary markets, our brands are not broadly distributed in those markets. And as a consequence, we don't have the impact maybe of newly ramping hotels in those markets or of competition maybe against some of the relatively weaker brands.

同樣地，我們也看到，在某種程度上，其他一些公司正在我們尚未涉足的市場中與我們競爭。因此——如果你想想二級市場或一些三級市場，你會發現我們的品牌在這些市場並沒有廣泛分銷。因此，我們可能無法感受到這些市場中新開業的酒店所帶來的影響，也可能無法感受到與一些相對較弱的品牌之間的競爭的影響。

All things put together, we are actually gratified in the midst of a massive integration that in the midst of all of that, we still managed to take about 100 basis points index growth both in the United States and globally in the first quarter of '19.

綜合所有因素，我們很欣慰地看到，在如此大規模的整合過程中，我們仍然在 2019 年第一季實現了美國和全球指數約 100 個基點的成長。

Great. And just on the pipeline, it was down quarter-over-quarter for the first time in several years. I know we shouldn't read too much into 1 quarter's worth of pipeline data. But I think the pipeline last year and so far this year is growing quite a bit slower than your 7% gross unit growth. So can you talk about that and maybe what you're hearing from developers right now?

偉大的。僅就管道運輸而言，其環比產量就出現了幾年來的首次下降。我知道我們不應該過度解讀一個季度的管道數據。但我認為去年和今年迄今的產能成長速度遠低於你們7%的毛單位成長率。那麼，您能談談這方面的情況，以及您目前從開發者那裡聽到的一些消息嗎？

I don't think the very modest -- I think we had a 0.8% decline in the pipeline from quarter end Q4 -- is a trend. We opened well in the first quarter. Always at the end of the year, we probably have a little bit more culling of the pipeline than we do at other times. And typically, Q1 will be the slowest sign-ins quarter. Part of that is because you've got to go through reauthorization franchise circulars in most states. All those things combined led to that modest negative in Q1. And we don't think we'll necessarily see that in the quarters ahead.

我不認為這種非常小的下降——我認為從第四季末到現在，我們的專案儲備下降了0.8%——是一種趨勢。第一節我們開局不錯。每年年底，我們的產品線可能會比其他時候進行更多的篩選。通常來說，第一季是登入量最低的季度。部分原因是，在大多數州，你必須查閱特許經營權重新授權的相關規定。所有這些因素加在一起導致了第一季的小幅下滑。我們認為未來幾季未必會出現這種情況。

But having said that, we are -- we've said now for at least a couple of years that sort of steady-state organic growth, particularly in the United States, United States is flattish. We are, I think, continuing to take share, maybe even building a little bit of momentum. But in the ninth or 10th year of the recovery with cost increases in construction and labor and length of the construction cycle, even though financing is high and the absolute returns are quite good, I don't expect we'll see a meaningful ramp-up, for example, in development in the U.S. I think instead, we'll be sort of poking along at flat levels, substantial but flat levels. And growth quarter-over-quarter or year-over-year is going to depend a lot on what happens in the rest of the world.

但話雖如此，我們——我們至少在過去幾年一直認為，穩定的有機成長，尤其是在美國，是趨於平緩的。我認為，我們正在繼續擴大市場份額，甚至可能正在累積一些發展勢頭。但是，在經濟復甦的第九年或第十年，隨著建築和勞動力成本的增加以及建設週期的延長，即使融資額很高，絕對回報也相當不錯，我預計我們不會在美國等地的開發領域看到實質性的增長。我認為，相反，我們將以相當可觀但較為平穩的水平緩慢前進。季度環比或年度環比增長將很大程度上取決於世界其他地區的情況。

Laura, congratulations to you, well deserved. And Arne, my best wishes to you for a quick recovery.

蘿拉，恭喜你，實至名歸。阿恩，祝你早日康復。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Arne, we wish you the best. That's heartfelt. And Laura, congratulations. We will definitely miss you.

阿恩，祝你一切順利。真是發自內心。勞拉，恭喜你。我們一定會非常想念你。

Thank you.

謝謝。

My question -- most of my questions have been answered, but the one question I have is regarding the development pipeline. What percentage of the pipeline is North America or U.S. top 25 markets full-service? And what percentage of that would be financed or under construction?

我的問題——我的大部分問題都已得到解答，但我還有一個關於開發流程的問題。在北美或美國前 25 大市場中，有多少百分比的管道提供全方位服務？其中有多少比例是已融資或正在興建中的？

We'll have to go back to you on this. I think about 40% of the global pipeline is luxury and upper upscale. So it's a good, healthy mix, which is in the higher segments. I am certain that the percentage in the U.S. only, which is luxury and upper upscale, is meaningfully lower than that and that U.S. may skew towards, for us, upscale principally, not upper mid-scale. We don't really have any upper mid-scale space. Am I close or you guys -- go ahead.

這件事我們得再跟你商量一下。我認為全球約 40% 的待售商品是奢侈品和高端商品。所以這是一個良好、健康的混合組合，屬於較高檔次。我確信，僅在美國，奢侈品和高端產品所佔的比例要低得多，而且對我們來說，美國的消費群可能主要偏向高端產品，而不是中高端產品。我們實際上沒有任何中高端空間。我猜對嗎？還是你們——繼續吧。

In the pipeline, when we're looking at the full-service pipeline, it's about 10% of the overall 475,000.

在管道建設方面，當我們考察全服務管道時，它約佔總管道長度 475,000 的 10%。

Of the global.

全球範圍內的。

Global pipeline. Of the North America pipeline, it's about 20%.

全球管道。北美管道中約佔 20%。

And I don't think we can give you the top 25 versus other markets with the information we've got here.

我認為，根據我們目前掌握的信息，我們無法將前 25 名與其他市場進行比較。

Obviously full-service (technical difficulty)

顯然是全方位服務（技術難題）

Our next question comes from the line of David Beckel of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的戴維·貝克爾的詩句。

I'd also like to echo the sentiments and well wishes, Arne, and congrats, Laura, on a tremendous career. My question -- my first question has to do with RevPAR cadence. Given Q1 results, Q2 guidance, of course, there are some timing issues. But back half implies sort of a pretty healthy acceleration, particularly in the U.S. You talked a little bit about group strength, giving you some confidence that, that will materialize. But there -- are there any other onetime items to be aware of there with respect to the calendar? And more generally, what gives you the confidence that demand and RevPAR will sort of seemingly reaccelerate through the back half of the year?

我也想表達同樣的感受和祝福，Arne，並祝賀Laura擁有如此輝煌的職業生涯。我的問題——我的第一個問題與RevPAR節奏有關。鑑於第一季業績和第二季預期，當然存在一些時間安排上的問題。但下半程意味著某種程度上的健康加速，尤其是在美國。你剛才談到了一些團隊實力，這讓你相信，這種情況將會實現。但是，關於日曆，還有其他需要注意的一次性事項嗎？更普遍地說，是什麼讓您確信需求和每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）會在今年下半年出現某種程度的重新加速增長？

Yes. There's -- I mean I think there's one thing we can be probably annually blamed for, I suppose, and that is we often keep our range a full 2 points. And so obviously, we started the year 1 to 3. We're still at 1 to 3 after the first quarter. And if we were actually comparably precise in each quarter as the year went along, we would narrow that range more and more because the more quarters you put in the book, the less likely it is that you're either going to hit the bottom or the top end of that. And I think that could be said here too.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們每年可能都會被指責的一件事是，我們經常將波動幅度保持在 2 點以內。很顯然，我們年初的戰績是 1 比 3。第一季結束後，我們的戰績仍然是 1 比 3。如果我們每季都能保持類似的精確度，那麼隨著一年的進行，這個範圍就會越來越小，因為帳簿中記錄的季度越多，就越不可能達到最低點或最高點。我覺得這句話在這裡也同樣適用。

But maybe to get to the opposite fundamental point, our internal guess, if you were to take a sort of single-point RevPAR forecast is essentially right in the middle of that range. And so that tells you that basically when we're looking at transient bookings and group bookings and year-over-year comparability issues, the most obvious in the fourth quarter, of course, being the strikes, which we had to struggle through in the fourth quarter of 2018 but hopefully will not in the fourth quarter of 2019. All of those things get us to a place where we think sort of the midpoint of that 1 to 3 is about the best prediction that we can make.

但或許要說一個相反的基本觀點，我們內部的猜​​測，如果你做一個單點RevPAR預測，基本上就在這個範圍的中間。因此，這說明，當我們查看散客預訂、團體預訂以及同比數據時，最明顯的第四季度問題當然是罷工，我們在 2018 年第四季不得不艱難應對，但希望 2019 年第四季不會再發生這種情況。所有這些因素讓我們得出這樣的結論：1 到 3 的中間值是我們能做出的最佳預測。

It does suggest that in part because of comparability issues and because of bookings, maybe we're a bit better in the second and last 2 quarters than in the first 2 quarters but not a dramatically different scenario, and it's not our -- sitting here saying we're going to have a different kind of economic environment than the one we have today.

這表明，部分原因是可比性問題和預訂情況，我們第二季度和最後兩個季度的情況可能比前兩個季度略好一些，但情況並沒有發生巨大變化，我們坐在這裡並不認為我們將面臨與今天不同的經濟環境。

Great. And just a quick follow-up. I noticed that CapEx increased by about $100 million. Could you just give a little color as to why the increase?

偉大的。還有一個後續問題。我注意到資本支出增加了約1億美元。能否簡要說明一下成長的原因？

Sure. Basically, we're up at the midpoint about $100 million. And it is a combination of a little bit higher systems initiatives, which will actually be reimbursed over time from our owners as well as a loan for a particularly valuable management agreement that's going to result in a meaningful property improvement program that will bring a hotel up to really fantastic brand standards for that brand.

當然。基本上，我們目前領先約 1 億美元。這是由一些略微高額的系統性舉措組合而成，這些舉措實際上將隨著時間的推移由我們的業主償還，此外還有一筆貸款用於一項特別有價值的管理協議，該協議將帶來一個有意義的物業改進計劃，使酒店達到該品牌真正出色的品牌標準。

Our next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Smedes Rose 系列。

Arne, glad to hear that you're in good hands. And Laura, it's not going to be the same without you. I look forward to catching up offline with you.

阿恩，很高興聽到你得到了很好的照顧。蘿拉，沒有你，一切都會不一樣了。期待與您線下見面。

I wanted to ask just -- you mentioned in your opening remarks a new design for TownePlace and Fairfield Inns, I think, targeted at smaller markets. So I was just wondering, is that answering some sort of unfilled demand that your developers are asking you to do? Are you trying to be more competitive with the products that are already targeting those smaller markets? Or kind of maybe what's -- what does it mean for those, I guess, for the pipeline for those 2 products?

我想問一下——您在開場白中提到了 TownePlace 和 Fairfield Inns 的新設計，我想，是針對較小市場的。所以我想知道，這是否是為了滿足你們開發人員提出的某種尚未滿足的需求？您是否試圖在與那些已經瞄準較小市場的同類產品競爭中佔據優勢？或者說，對於這兩個產品的研發管線來說，這代表什麼？

I think it's actually both, but they're -- and I sense they're the same issue. We have heard from a number of our franchisees that they want to expand in secondary and to some extent, even tertiary markets where a Fairfield or a TownePlace Suites at 80 or 90 rooms instead of at 125 or 130 rooms is the better positioning for those markets.

我認為實際上兩者都是，但它們——而且我感覺它們是同一個問題。我們從一些加盟商那裡了解到，他們希望在二線市場，甚至在某種程度上在三線市場擴張，在這些市場中，擁有 80 或 90 間客房的 Fairfield 或 TownePlace Suites 酒店比擁有 125 或 130 間客房的酒店定位更適合這些市場。

And while we've had the ability, of course, to shrink the number of rooms in a hotel, if you're not shrinking the public space in a way that's commensurate with that, you're probably putting a product that's a little bit overbuilt in that market.

當然，我們有能力減少飯店的客房數量，但如果你沒有相應地減少公共空間，那麼你很可能是在市場上推出一款有點過度設計的產品。

And so we want to do something with those partners who want to grow in those markets to make sure that we've got something which is true to the brand but cost-effective for them and competitive with the competing product that might be there. And obviously, you can see we've got a lot of different companies that participate in the select service base particularly. And if you look at the tertiary markets, you'll see that we are probably less distributed there than many other companies in the United States.

因此，我們希望與那些希望在這些市場發展壯大的合作夥伴一起做些事情，以確保我們能夠提供既符合品牌形象，又經濟實惠，並且能夠與市場上可能存在的競爭產品相媲美的產品。顯然，您可以看到我們有很多不同的公司參與精選服務基地。如果你看看三線市場，你會發現我們在那裡的分佈可能比美國許多其他公司都要少。

Okay. And then just listening to all the hotel REIT calls, Expedia -- or the new Expedia contractors come up. Some -- it sounds like more than just it's a little more nuanced than just sort of lowering the commissions, and it's more about more control over maybe the way the rooms are put into the OTA systems. Can you just provide maybe some just broad strokes of maybe just kind of the changes in the contract or how it works now versus...

好的。然後，聽著所有關於酒店 REIT 的電話會議，Expedia——或者 Expedia 的新承包商——就會被提及。聽起來不僅僅是降低佣金那麼簡單，而是更微妙一些，更多的是關於如何更好地控制房間在OTA系統中的放置方式。您能否簡要概述一下合約的變化，或者現在的運作方式與以前相比有何不同？

Yes. I think the -- I mean obviously, we are now -- I don't even know what round of new contract this is with Expedia, but we've been renegotiating these contracts for nearly 20 years, I suppose, something like that. And there is a similarity, to some extent, with each of them.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，很顯然，我們現在——我什至不知道這是與 Expedia 簽訂的第幾輪新合同，但我想，我們已經重新談判這些合同近 20 年了。它們之間在某種程度上是有相似之處的。

But I think on some level, we continue to look for cost effectiveness. We look for data, transferability, the ability to understand who the customer is and have the systems understand who the customer is. We look at inventory control, which is, can we yield our inventory? Can we make sure we're pricing our inventory on our own platform in a way that doesn't necessarily have to be offered up in every other platform? And those things were on the table here too.

但我認為在某種程度上，我們仍然會追求成本效益。我們尋找數據、可攜性，以及了解客戶是誰並讓系統了解客戶是誰的能力。我們來看看庫存控制，也就是，我們能否收回庫存？我們能否確保我們自己平台上的庫存定價方式不必與其他所有平台都相同？這些議題也曾被擺上舞台討論。

And of course, you would expect Expedia or another OTA to want often the opposite of what we want, certainly as it relates to the level of the commission. That's probably the clearest to see. But I think we're grateful for where we got with Expedia. We do think it will deliver economic benefits to our owners.

當然，你可能會認為 Expedia 或其他線上旅行社想要的往往與我們想要的相反，尤其是在佣金水平方面。那大概是最容易看出來的。但我認為我們應該感謝 Expedia 帶給我們的成果。我們認為這將為我們的所有者帶來經濟效益。

We also think we are -- we don't have much to say about this today. You'll have to stay tuned, but we do have an idea with them, with Expedia, that we think is attractive to both of us, maybe an incremental place for them to make some economics in our space but also a space in which they can actually deliver more cost-effective solution to us than some of the solutions that are available to us today. And so we're pleased with the outcome that we've got and look forward to seeing what we can accomplish with it.

我們也這麼認為──今天我們對此沒什麼好說的。敬請期待，我們和 Expedia 確實有一個想法，我們認為這對我們雙方都很有吸引力，這或許能讓他們在我們的領域獲得一些利潤，同時也能讓他們為我們提供比目前一些解決方案更具成本效益的解決方案。因此，我們對目前的結果感到滿意，並期待著看看我們能用它取得怎樣的成就。

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·鮑威爾。

Obviously, well wishes to you, Arne. Well wishes to you, Laura. Thanks for your help and openness over the years.

當然，祝你一切順利，阿恩。祝你一切順利，蘿拉。感謝您多年來的幫助與坦誠。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes. So the house profit margin increase in North America on pretty modest RevPAR was a positive in the quarter. I think you targeted 50 basis points of hotel level margin growth from the merger. Are you beating that currently? Or do you think that could lead to upside to your incentive fee growth projection of 6% to 10% over the next few years?

是的。因此，北美地區在每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）較為溫和的情況下，房屋利潤率的成長對本季來說是一個好消息。我認為你們的目標是透過合併使飯店層面的利潤率成長 50 個基點。你現在能超過這個成績嗎？或者您認為這可能會導致您未來幾年激勵費用成長預期達到 6% 至 10% 的幅度？

So a couple of things. We basically have achieved, in every year since we've acquired Starwood, 50 basis points of -- at least 50 basis points of margin improvement apart from RevPAR in '17, '18, and it's our goal to do that again in '19. And quite frankly, Anthony, it's our goal to do it again in '20.

有兩件事。自從我們收購喜達屋以來，我們基本上每年都實現了至少 50 個基點的利潤率提升——除了 2017 年和 2018 年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 之外，2017 年和 2018 年的利潤率至少提升了 50 個基點，我們的目標是在 2019 年再次做到這一點。坦白說，安東尼，我們的目標是在 2020 年再次做到這一點。

So I think whether it is from purchasing or from what we've seen in the loyalty program to productivity synergies to above-property synergies through the PFF, we've been thrilled with what we've been able to do and quite frankly, with the hard work that the properties have put in to making it a reality. So we do continue to see the benefit. And I think you're seeing that come forth in the incentive fees and in the profits of the hotels.

所以我認為，無論是從採購方面，還是從我們在忠誠度計劃中看到的生產力協同效應，再到透過 PFF 實現的超前物業協同效應，我們都對我們所取得的成就感到非常興奮，坦白說，我們也對各物業為實現這一目標所付出的辛勤努力感到非常興奮。所以我們確實繼續看到了好處。我認為這一點已經體現在酒店的獎勵費用和利潤中了。

Got it. So I think in your Investor Day, you said 6% to 10% of growth over the next few years. Is that still the target? Or is there maybe upside to that?

知道了。所以我覺得在你們的投資者日活動上，你們說過未來幾年將達到 6% 到 10% 的成長。那還是目標嗎？或者，這樣做或許也有好處？

Yes. Yes. I think for now, using what you've got in the Security Analyst Meeting is just right.

是的。是的。我認為就目前而言，利用安全分析師會議上現有的資源就足夠了。

Got it. Okay. Just one more...

知道了。好的。再來一個…

We certainly hope to beat it.

我們當然希望能夠戰勝它。

Got it. And just on the home rental business, is this more of an offering or amenity for your core customer? Or do you think this can really scale to something that's meaningful in terms of financials for you over the next few years?

知道了。就房屋租賃業務而言，這對您的核心客戶來說更像是一種服務還是一項便利設施？或者您認為在未來幾年內，這真的能夠發展成為對您而言具有實際意義的財務項目嗎？

Well, time's going to tell. I mean we're taking a different strategy obviously than a number have. We are not -- we want to -- we know that what we offer in this space, our brand must stand behind. That nobody is going to excuse us from a bad experience in a home and villa rental kind of experience. They're not going to blame the host. They're going to say, "Marriott, you put me in a product that was not clean," or something else happened in that space. And so that's one theme that will make -- will have an impact under the size of business long term.

時間會證明一切。我的意思是，我們顯然採取了與許多其他人不同的策略。我們不是——我們想——我們知道，我們在這個領域所提供的服務，我們的品牌必須為其負責。沒有人會為我們糟糕的房屋和別墅租賃體驗開脫。他們不會責怪主人。他們會說：“萬豪酒店，你們讓我入住了一個不乾淨的房間”，或者那個房間發生了其他什麼事。因此，這將是影響企業長期規模的主題。

The second thing we're doing is we're really looking at the whole home market. We're not looking at studio apartments. We're not looking at extra bedrooms. We're looking at something which is meaningfully different from a traditional hotel room. For obvious reasons, we think it makes it more complementary to the hotel space that we're in. We also think it helps fill out a gap, if you will.

我們正在做的第二件事是，我們正在真正關注整個住宅市場。我們不考慮單身公寓。我們不需要額外的臥室。我們看到的是一種與傳統飯店房間截然不同的東西。顯而易見，我們認為這使它與我們所在的酒店空間更加相得益彰。我們也認為它有助於填補某種空白。

One of the gaps that arguably we've had is that when larger families, whether that's a single nuclear family or an extended family, are traveling together, hotels are not necessarily always the easiest place to be because there may not be places for them to gather outside of the public spaces of the hotel.

我們遇到的一個問題可能是，當大家庭（無論是單一核心家庭還是大家庭）一起旅行時，酒店不一定是最佳選擇，因為除了酒店的公共區域外，可能沒有其他地方供他們聚會。

And the more we can do something that solves both of those, the better off we think we are. I think though even defined that way, it is a big market and a market that we can grow in. We obviously don't expect that there will be a material financial impact in 2019. We wouldn't tell you to build anything into this model until we get smarter about it in the years ahead. But we're really excited about it, and we're really eager to learn what we can learn in this space.

我們越能做一些同時解決這兩個問題的事情，就越覺得自己過得更好。我認為，即使這樣定義，它仍然是一個巨大的市場，一個我們可以成長的市場。我們顯然預計2019年不會產生實質的財務影響。在未來幾年我們對這個模型有了更深入的了解之前，我們不會建議您在這個模型中添加任何東西。但我們對此感到非常興奮，也非常渴望在這個領域學到什麼。

Our next question comes from the line of Bill Crow of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Bill Crow。

And obviously, I share the sentiments that's already been said. Laura, 20 years of trying to make me better, I appreciate your efforts. I'm not sure they worked, but I appreciate them.

顯然，我贊同前面已經表達的觀點。蘿拉，你二十年來一直努力讓我變得更好，我感謝你的付出。我不確定它們是否奏效，但我很感激它們。

Well, you're here (inaudible)

嗯，你在這裡（聽不清楚）

Arne, my question is really on the select service and limited-service space, whether you think the consumer today is more discerning in what they're looking for and whether that's put older properties at a significant disadvantage to newly opened properties.

Arne，我的問題其實是關於精選服務和有限服務領域的，你是否認為如今的消費者在尋找什麼方面更加挑剔，以及這是否使老酒店相對於新開業的酒店處於明顯的劣勢。

It's a good question, a good question for lots of reasons. I mean I think the full-service hotels have still got a very meaningful advantage. They've got function space. They've got a presence that a typical select service hotel can't offer, often a food and beverage range that a select service hotel can't offer. And they can continue to be I think quite competitive, particularly in the right kinds of markets.

這是一個好問題，好問題有很多原因。我的意思是，我認為提供全方位服務的酒店仍然具有非常顯著的優勢。他們有功能空間。它們擁有一般精選服務飯店無法提供的服務，通常也提供精選服務飯店無法提供的餐飲選擇。我認為他們仍然可以保持相當強的競爭力，尤其是在合適的市場中。

I think at the same time, you see select brands, and we've got a number of these. I think about Moxy and AC and Aloft and Element, just to name a few that come right to mind, that are interesting. They are -- they can be lively. They can be with an energized bar space or lobby space or maybe even flex food and beverage space. And if they're in urban locations, they give a better alternative, I think, in some respects than the relatively lower-rated hotels that might have been in the same market in a past generation, if they existed there in the first place.

我認為同時，你會看到一些精選品牌，而我們有很多這樣的品牌。我想到了 Moxy、AC、Aloft 和 Element，這只是我能立刻想到的幾個有趣的酒店。它們是——它們可能很活潑。它們可以是充滿活力的酒吧空間、大廳空間，甚至是靈活的餐飲空間。如果它們位於城市地區，我認為，在某些方面，它們比上一代可能在同一市場中存在的、評價相對較低的酒店，提供了一個更好的選擇。

And so we'll watch this altogether. Obviously, one reason these brands are growing so well is I think our franchise partners see them and say, "This is a pretty interesting new mousetrap, and we want to be part of experimenting to see how this works." I think ultimately, all these hotels can be successful in -- if they're positioned right and if they're true to their brands. I think some of the newer select brands have the ability to punch above their weight in terms of rate per square footage, which I think will make them stronger over time.

所以我們會一起觀看。顯然，這些品牌發展如此迅猛的原因之一，我認為是我們的加盟合作夥伴看到了它們，並表示：「這是一種非常有趣的新模式，我們想參與其中，看看它的效果如何。」我認為最終，所有這些酒店都能獲得成功——只要它們定位正確，並且忠於自己的品牌。我認為一些新興的精選品牌有能力在每平方英尺的價格方面取得超出其規模的成績，我認為這將使它們隨著時間的推移而變得更強大。

And ultimately, where the growth settles is going to depend a little bit on that return, and that return is both about current cash return for development costs, but it's also about capital preservation and what assets are going to hold their value the longest. And that's still often going to be urban main and main kinds of locations that may have delivered a little less percentage cash flow return but are going to hold their value extraordinarily well.

最終，成長的穩定方向將在一定程度上取決於回報，而回報既包括開發成本的當前現金回報，也包括資本保值以及哪些資產能夠最長時間地保持其價值。而且，這些地方通常仍然是城市的主要地段，雖然現金流回報率可能略低，但其保值能力卻非常出色。

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

Let me just also reiterate, Arne, hopes for a quick recovery, and Laura, congratulations. Well deserved.

我還要再次重申，Arne，希望你早日康復；Laura，恭喜你。實至名歸。

Thank you.

謝謝。

A question. You had talked about occupancy taking a bit of a hit in the quarter on, I guess, less use of third-party OTAs. Is this something that we would expect to continue throughout the year? And then is it also fair to think that on the flip side, it certainly benefits owned hotels, including yours as well as IMFs?

一個問題。您之前提到過，由於第三方線上旅行社 (OTA) 的使用減少，本季入住率受到了一定程度的影響。這種情況預計會持續一整年嗎？那麼，從另一個角度來看，這種做法是否也有利於酒店集團（包括您的酒店）以及國際貨幣基金組織？

Yes. I mean I think we have seen probably some of this the last few quarters. We certainly -- in the Marriott, Legacy-Marriott portfolio, even before the integration of the reservations platforms, we had started to do some yielding of our inventory off of third-party sites when we predicted we didn't need that business.

是的。我的意思是，我認為在過去的幾個季度裡，我們已經看到了一些這樣的情況。當然，在萬豪酒店集團（包括 Legacy-Marriott 旗下酒店）中，甚至在整合預訂平台之前，當我們預測我們不再需要這部分業務時，我們就已經開始將部分庫存從第三方網站下架。

And so I suspect as we get further into the year, we will see some lapping of what we did in the past. I think what has accelerated probably a bit is with going to one reservations platform is we've brought the Starwood Hotels in sort of one fell swoop onto a little bit more aggressive approach that way. And so we think we'll probably see some impact of that.

因此，我懷疑隨著時間的推移，我們會看到一些過去所做的事情被重複。我認為加速這一進程的原因可能是，我們轉向單一預訂平台後，喜達屋酒店集團在一夜之間採取了更積極主動的策略。所以我們認為這可能會產生一些影響。

We're going to watch this. I mean obviously, we don't want to turn away business if it's incremental to us. What we want to do though is make sure we're set up to maximize profitability of hotels long term. And while, we talked about this before, while RevPAR is the single measure which is most available in the industry, it is not the measure which is the most important, which is what kind of profits are you driving from the performance of that hotel as you compete for owner capital. And as we've said before, we're quite [prepared] to sacrifice a few tenths on the top line it if makes sense to drive enhanced profitability on the bottom line.

我們要看這個。我的意思是，很顯然，如果業務成長對我們有利，我們不想放棄它。但我們真正想要做的，是確保我們能夠最大限度地提高酒店的長期盈利能力。雖然我們之前也討論過，雖然RevPAR是業界最容易獲得的單一衡量標準，但它並不是最重要的衡量標準，最重要的衡量標準是，當你與業主競爭資金時，你從酒店的業績中獲得了什麼樣的利潤。正如我們之前所說，如果能提高利潤，我們完全願意犧牲零點幾個百分點的營收。

The only additional add to that is that I would not expect it -- to the second part of your question, I would not expect it to materially impact owned, leased profits.

唯一需要補充的是，對於你問題的第二部分，我不認為它會對自有租賃利潤產生實質影響。

Our next question comes from the line of Robin Farley of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

I want to add my best wishes for Arne. And Laura, quite selfishly, I am bummed that Laura is leaving because as many years as I've been doing this, I always learn something when I talk to Laura. So I think for all of us, our understanding of the industry's going to be diminished by you going. But don't let that stop you. I know you well deserve it. So...

我謹向阿爾內致以最美好的祝愿。說實話，我挺難過的，蘿拉要離開了，因為這麼多年來，每次和蘿拉聊天我都能學到一些東西。所以我覺得，你的離開會讓我們所有人對這個行業的了解減少。但不要因此而放棄。我知道你完全值得擁有這一切。所以...

We feel exactly the same, Robin.

羅賓，我們也有同感。

Exactly.

確切地。

So my question is on incentive management fees. I wonder if you could give us -- sometimes you give color on kind of what percent of hotels are paying versus the previous peak kind of in North America. And then also just with guidance for management -- the incentive management fee declined in Q2. You mentioned it's renovations. It seems like something that a renovation disruption might be more than a 1-quarter phenomenon, but your full year guidance is still for that up mid-single digit for the incentive management fees. So I wonder if you could just talk to us about how -- like what's the sort of specific to Q2 but not necessarily an issue in later quarters about that?

所以我的問題是關於激勵管理費的。我想知道您是否可以提供一些資訊——有時您會提供一些數據，說明北美地區有多少百分比的酒店正在支付費用，以及與之前的峰值相比情況如何。此外，管理層也得到了指導——第二季度激勵管理費有所下降。你提到過是翻修工程。裝修中斷似乎可能不只持續一個季度，但你們全年的業績預期仍然是激勵管理費實現個位數中段的成長。所以我想請您跟我們談談——比如，第二季度具體存在哪些問題，但這些問題在以後的幾季可能就不是問題了？

Sure. Absolutely. So let's first talk about percentage ownership on incentive fees. And in Q1, in '19 versus '18, it was up 300 basis points, so 56% versus 53% a year ago first quarter. So fits nicely with the discussion that we've been having relative to margins and also international hotel growth. Relative to the full year, last year, '18 was up about 1 point over '17. It's too soon for us to kind of get into percentages for all of '19, but I think clearly, the trend is moving in the right direction.

當然。絕對地。那我們先來談談激勵費用的所有權比例。2019 年第一季度，與 2018 年相比，成長了 300 個基點，即 56% 對 去年同期的 53%。這與我們正在討論的利潤率以及國際酒店業成長問題非常吻合。與全年相比，去年 2018 年比 2017 年高出約 1 個百分點。現在就對 2019 年全年的數據進行百分比分析還為時過早，但我認為很明顯，這一趨勢正朝著正確的方向發展。

So a couple things I'll mention on incentive fees in Q2. One of the things that's going on in Q2 in incentive fees is FX. We have expected that FX, albeit it's a little bit less bad than we expected a quarter ago -- a quarter ago, we said $15 million to $20 million. Now we've got closer to $10 million. We do expect that FX impact, negative FX impact, which clearly hits incentive fees, to be largely in the first half. So we are expecting a chunk of that to be in Q2. And then you add onto that the reality that in Q1, we had a bunch of resorts that were getting this extra strong incentive fees and then layer on top of it the renovations and Easter. And that's where you get this overall change in the direction of the incentive fees in Q2.

所以，關於第二季的激勵費用，我有幾點要提。第二季度激勵費用方面發生的事情之一是外匯波動。我們之前就預料到外匯市場會受到影響，雖然情況比我們一個季度前預期的要好一些——一個季度前，我們預測會受到影響1500萬美元到2000萬美元。現在我們離1000萬美元的目標更近了。我們預期匯率波動帶來的負面影響（顯然會影響激勵費用）將主要集中在上半年。因此，我們預計其中一部分將在第二季實現。再加上第一季有很多度假村獲得了額外的豐厚獎勵，再加上翻新和復活節的因素，情況就更加複雜了。這就是第二季激勵費用整體方向改變的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的托馬斯艾倫。

And best wishes and a speedy recovery, Arne. And Laura, good luck in your retirement.

祝你一切順利，早日康復，阿恩。勞拉，祝你退休生活一切順利。

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So at the beginning, in your prepared remarks, you talked about 2.5 years of embedded growth just in the hotels and construction and then another 2.5 years in the pipeline. Is that saying -- for the kind of 5.5% to 6% growth you're guiding, is that what you're implying?

所以，在開場白中，您在準備好的演講稿中談到了未來 2.5 年僅在酒店和建築領域就有的嵌入式增長，然後還有 2.5 年的增長正在籌備中。你的意思是——對於你所期望的 5.5% 到 6% 的成長，你的意思是這個嗎？

Yes. I guess so. Yes. I don't know that we exactly went back and tested the net unit growth number. And obviously the 5.5% is net of deletions. We're not updating the deletions forecast. But really simply looking at -- you look at the volume of rooms in that pipeline, and it looks about 5 years' worth of growth to us.

是的。大概吧。是的。我不太清楚我們是否真的回頭測試了淨單位成長率。顯然，5.5%是扣除刪除項後的淨值。我們不會更新刪除預測。但實際上，簡單地看一下——你看看正在籌建的房間數量，在我們看來，這相當於大約 5 年的增長量。

And it's assuming just a steady pace of openings. So it -- just at today's pace, you've got a lot of stuff in the pipeline.

而且這還是假設開業速度維持穩定。所以——就目前的速度而言，你們有很多項目正在籌備中。

It's consistent with what we talked about in the Security Analyst Meeting, which obviously, you'd expect higher room openings in '21 than you would expect in '19. But it is all consistent with this pipeline, be it 478,000 or 475,000.

這與我們先前在安全分析師會議上討論的內容一致，顯然，2021 年的房間開放數量會比 2019 年的多。但無論是 478,000 還是 475,000，都與這條管道相符。

Okay. Perfect. And then just -- since you announced Homes & Villas, what have you heard from owners?

好的。完美的。那麼，自從你們宣布推出「住宅與別墅」計畫以來，你們從業主那裡聽到了哪些回饋？

They're curious, of course. They're deeply interested in where we're going with this. Obviously, 2,000 Homes & Villas is a substantial increase from what we were doing last year, but it is not a significant number by itself when you compare it to the -- either the size of the hotel system we have today or even the number of hotels we open every week. And so it's less a question really about what are we doing today than what might we be doing in the future.

他們當然很好奇。他們非常關心我們接下來要做什麼。顯然，2000 套住宅和別墅比我們去年的數量大幅增加，但與我們目前擁有的酒店系統規模，甚至是我們每週開設的酒店數量相比，這個數字本身並不算大。所以，與其說是我們今天在做什麼，不如說是我們未來可能會做什麼。

And I think as we go forward, we're going to make sure we're communicating with them and taking onboard their interests. I think our owners are not monolithic. So it would be wrong to say that every one of them has exactly the same point of view. I do think there are many of them that acknowledge that this is a rational step for us to take. And if they were in our shoes, they'd be doing exactly the same thing.

我認為，展望未來，我們將確保與他們溝通，並充分考慮他們的利益。我認為我們的所有者並非鐵板一塊。因此，說他們每個人觀點都完全相同是錯的。我認為他們當中很多人都認同，這是我們應該採取的理性步驟。如果他們處在我們的位置，他們也會做同樣的事情。

I think broadly, they appreciate the value of the loyalty program and know that this can enhance the loyalty program, which is the benefit not just of the Homes & Villas business, but it's also to the benefit of the hotel business. And I think owners generally have a point of view which is they'd like to grow with us but maybe have nobody else grow with us, so that they could make sure they capture as much of our customer base as they possibly can. I think they understand philosophically that, that's not a world that they can necessarily have.

我認為總的來說，他們認識到忠誠度計劃的價值，並且知道這可以增強忠誠度計劃，這不僅對 Homes & Villas 業務有利，而且對酒店業務也有好處。我認為老闆們通常都有這樣一種觀點：他們希望與我們共同成長，但可能不希望其他人與我們一起成長，這樣他們才能確保盡可能多地獲得我們的客戶群。我認為他們在哲學層面上明白，那並不是他們所能擁有的世界。

But you put all that through the grinder, and I think we've got a very constructive set of conversations with our owners, and I'm sure we'll be able to navigate this through with them well.

但是，經過反覆推敲，我認為我們和老闆們進行了一系列非常有建設性的對話，我相信我們能夠和他們一起順利解決這個問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Bellisario of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Michael Bellisario。

All the best to both of you, Arne and Laura.

祝你們倆一切順利，Arne 和 Laura。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You gave us a 3% number. I think it's on the transient side for your largest accounts. I mean did you see any different trend with some of your smaller accounts? And any differences between kind of larger and smaller customers in terms of the booking behavior that you saw?

你給我們的結果是3%。我認為對你們最大的客戶來說，這屬於暫時性的。我的意思是，你有沒有發現一些小帳戶有什麼不同的趨勢？您觀察到的預訂行為方面，規模較大的客戶和規模較小的客戶之間是否有任何差異？

Yes. I wouldn't say anything kind of notable. Happily, some of our biggest customers, like the professional services areas and things like that, they were good -- they were up meaningfully, so some of the areas that you would expect. So I don't think there are any particular trends of the larger versus the smaller. But certainly, professional service as an example was up very strong.

是的。我不會說有什麼值得一提的事情。令人欣慰的是，我們的一些最大客戶，例如專業服務領域等等，情況都很好——他們的業務都顯著增長了，所以有些領域的情況正如你所預期的那樣。所以我認為，在規模大小方面並沒有特別的趨勢。但以專業服務為例，其成長動能非常強勁。

And then you mentioned I think you called it a surge in group bookings in April. What was the kind of profile of that customer that was being more aggressive with their forward-looking bookings?

然後你提到，我想你稱之為四月份團體預訂量的激增。那些更積極進行前瞻性預訂的客戶群是什麼樣的？

Well, they're -- actually, that was group that we were talking about. That was group bookings which obviously can cover a range, everything from associations to government to corporations, and it was quite strong in the corporates. What -- I think one of the things that we were very pleased to see is that it was -- the surge was both in the year, for the year as well as for all future periods, which was always very encouraging.

嗯，他們——實際上，我們剛才說的就是那個團體。那是團體預訂，顯然涵蓋範圍很廣，從協會到政府再到企業，應有盡有，而且企業預訂量相當大。我覺得我們非常高興地看到，這一增長不僅體現在當年，也體現在所有未來的時期，這始終令人鼓舞。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Kopelman of Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Kevin Kopelman。

And first of all, best wishes to you, Arne, and congrats to Laura.

首先，祝你一切順利，Arne，也恭喜Laura。

Thanks, Kevin.

謝謝你，凱文。

Thanks, Kevin.

謝謝你，凱文。

I just had a quick one. Can you talk about free cash flow trends that you're seeing and that kind of onetime payment that you had in the first quarter and how you're expecting free cash flow to trend for the year?

我只是匆匆吃了一口。您能否談談您目前看到的自由現金流趨勢，以及您在第一季收到的一次性付款，並預測今年的自由現金流趨勢？

For the onetime payment you're referencing, you're talking about insurance costs related to -- profit sharing last year?

您提到的那筆一次性付款，是指與去年利潤分成相關的保險費用嗎？

Yes. Profit -- that was profit sharing within the year ago first quarter. So in that respect, we were talking about kind of year-over-year trends in G&A because obviously, last year was weighted down by the $35 million. You could be talking about the profit sharing from our working capital changes, the...

是的。利潤——這是去年第一季的利潤分成。因此，從這個角度來看，我們討論的是 G&A 的同比趨勢，因為很明顯，去年的 G&A 支出為 3500 萬美元，拉低了整體水平。您可能指的是我們營運資金變動帶來的利潤分成，即…

Sorry, I'm talking about the outflow for accrued payroll and benefits.

抱歉，我指的是應計工資和福利的支出。

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Year-over-year, yes.

是的，同比下降了。

Yes. And that is just a function of the fact that, as you remember, we accrued for this supplemental benefit last year. But we actually paid it out in first quarter into our associates' accounts. And then second of all, we also moved up our profit sharing timing from Q3 to Q1. So when you look at the working capital use of cash in Q1 relative to normal, it looks particularly heavy, and that's because of about $200 million worth of timing differences in the cash flow.

是的。這僅僅是因為我們去年累積了這項補充福利，正如您所知。但實際上，我們在第一季就把錢支付到了員工的帳戶裡。其次，我們也將利潤分享時間從第三季提早到了第一季。因此，當你觀察第一季現金營運資金使用情況與正常情況相比時，你會發現它顯得特別沉重，這是因為現金流有約 2 億美元的時間差異。

Got it. And then just a follow-up. Typically, your loyalty program has been a source of cash, and you talked about how it might be different this year. And you did have strong, I think, redemptions in the first quarter. So any change to the outlook there for this year?

知道了。然後還有一個後續問題。通常情況下，您的會員忠誠度計劃是現金來源，您也談到了今年可能會有所不同。我認為你們在第一季確實有過一些精彩的逆轉。那麼今年的前景有什麼改變嗎？

Yes. So good question. And again, to your -- kind of to finish off the rest of your earlier question, otherwise, in terms of the overall flow of cash, it's really the same as we expressed in the first quarter. So no fundamental change. We obviously haven't assumed any asset sales. So it's pretty similar.

是的。問得好。再次回答你之前的問題，除此之外，就整體現金流而言，這與我們在第一季所表達的情況基本相同。所以沒有根本性的改變。我們顯然沒有預料到任何資產出售。所以它們非常相似。

Yes. I would say loyalty might be between $50 million and $100 million negative use of cash this year as compared to more neutral where we were a quarter ago. But that's also offset by a little bit higher net income. So you put that all together with maybe ever so slightly higher debt borrowings and we end up in exactly the same place. And all of those, I would say, are in the $50 million to $75 million, so really kind of fine-tuning more than any fundamental change.

是的。我認為，與一個季度前較為中性的情況相比，今年忠誠度計畫可能會造成 5,000 萬至 1 億美元的現金負面支出。但略高的淨收入也抵消了這種影響。所以，把所有這些因素加在一起，再加上可能略微增加的債務借款，我們最終會發現結果完全一樣。我認為所有這些改動加起來都在 5000 萬美元到 7500 萬美元之間，所以與其說是根本性的改變，不如說是微調。

Our next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的韋斯‧戈拉迪。

I just got a quick question on conversions. Now that Bonvoy has been launched, the programs have been integrated, are you seeing increased interest from owners to convert to Marriott brands?

我剛剛收到一個關於單位換算的問題。現在萬豪旅享家已經推出，各項計畫也已整合完畢，您是否看到業主對轉用萬豪旗下品牌的興趣增加？

I think it's certainly at least steady, if not up a bit, yes. The -- I think the demand both for new build and for conversions is comparable. I think the feedback we're getting from our owners is very positive. I think there have been questions already obviously about margins, which we've talked about. I think there is not -- maybe not unanimous but broad recognition that we're delivering incremental margin performance because of what we've built here. And I think there is broad understanding that the revenue lift should come behind it and not only an absolute revenue lift but a mix of revenue sources, which is more cost-effective. And so the level of conversations we're having with our current and prospective partners are very robust.

我認為至少是穩定的，如果不是略有上漲的話。我認為新建房屋和改建房屋的需求是相當的。我認為我們從業主那裡得到的回饋非常積極。我認為顯然已經有人問過利潤率的問題了，我們也討論過這個問題。我認為，雖然可能不是所有人都一致認為，但我們在這裡所取得的利潤成長，並非源自於我們在這裡所建立的一切，而是得到了廣泛的認可。而且我認為大家普遍認為，收入成長應該跟上步伐，不僅要實現絕對收入成長，還要實現多種收入來源的組合，這樣更具成本效益。因此，我們與現有合作夥伴和潛在合作夥伴之間的對話非常深入。

And in certain markets that are more RevPAR challenged like Middle East, for example, we're very encouraged with some of the conversion activity we see going on there, where the benefits of the strong revenue pipeline of our brands is viewed as very attractive as well as the margin.

例如，在像中東這樣RevPAR面臨更大挑戰的某些市場，我們對在那裡看到的一些轉換活動感到非常鼓舞，我們品牌的強勁收入管道以及利潤率都被視為非常有吸引力的因素。

Can I get one more question? I want to look at the limited service. The underperformance this quarter was a little bit more pronounced. And I assume some of that was related to the relief efforts last year. Is that true? And how do you expect the gap between full service to trend throughout the year?

我可以再問一個問題嗎？我想了解一下有限的服務情況。本季業績下滑的情況更為明顯。我猜其中一些與去年的救災工作有關。是真的嗎？您預計全年全方位服務與傳統服務之間的差距將如何變化？

Yes. It's a good question. The -- I think the limited service is partly geographic distribution maybe a little bit for us, partly age of product, I suppose maybe for Courtyard, which we're working on. But I don't see a dramatic difference in performance between the segments as the year goes along.

是的。這是個好問題。我認為服務受限的部分原因是地理分佈，可能對我們來說有點影響，部分原因是產品老化，我想這可能與萬怡酒店有關，我們正在努力改進。但隨著時間的推移，我並沒有看到各個細分市場之間的表現有顯著差異。

Best wishes and thanks for everything.

祝一切順利，謝謝你的一切幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our final question will come from the line of Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research.

最後一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

Great, and best wishes to both Arne and Laura. I had 2 questions and they're both related to share of wallet, one pertaining to Starwood-Marriott deal and the second on home sharing. So first, on Starwood-Marriott, you obviously have this base of Legacy-Marriott loyalty members, Starwood loyalty members. And I'm curious, kind of what inning you think we're in of increasing share of wallet within those bases of legacy members? What type of overlap you're seeing of the Legacy-Marriott staying now at Starwood properties and vice versa? I guess maybe a simple way of capturing it is I think you've noted loyalty is 50% of the business now. How high do you think that could get?

太好了，祝Arne和Laura一切順利。我有兩個問題，都與錢包份額有關，一個是關於喜達屋-萬豪的交易，另一個是關於房屋共享。首先，在喜達屋-萬豪酒店集團，顯然有萬豪酒店集團的忠實會員和喜達屋酒店的忠實會員。我很好奇，您認為我們在提高舊會員的錢包份額方面，目前處於哪個階段？您認為 Legacy-Marriott 目前入住 Starwood 旗下飯店與 Starwood 旗下飯店之間有哪些重疊情況？反之亦然？我想，或許可以簡單地這樣理解：正如您所指出的，忠誠度現在佔業務的 50%。你覺得最高能升多少？

Well, I'm not sure we actually know the answer to the second one. A couple of comments on absolute penetration of loyalty and then maybe finish with what inning we're in. It was interesting to us that when we acquired Starwood and looked at the way the calculation was done for loyalty contribution hotels, Starwood was 7 or 8 points higher than Marriott was principally because the calculation was done differently. And we have synthesized those calculations now, so that they're the same. And actually, the loyalty contribution of the Starwood Hotels looks a whole lot more like what it does for the Marriott Hotels.

嗯，我不太確定我們是否真的知道第二個問題的答案。就忠誠度的絕對滲透發表幾點看法，然後也許可以總結一下我們現在處於第幾局。令我們感到有趣的是，當我們收購喜達屋並查看其忠誠度貢獻酒店的計算方式時，喜達屋的積分比萬豪高出 7 或 8 分，這主要是因為計算方式不同。我們現在已經綜合了這些計算結果，使它們完全一致。事實上，喜達屋酒店集團的忠誠度貢獻與萬豪酒店集團的忠誠度貢獻更為相似。

And there's some arcane things in there about whether you count, for example, a point in eligible room that came in through an OTA channel but has a loyalty number attached it or maybe they could earn points from food and beverage or you don't and we don't. So there are a bunch of things that go into that calculation.

裡面還有一些晦澀難懂的規定，例如，是否應該將透過 OTA 管道預訂的符合條件的房間的積分計算在內，但該房間附帶忠誠度號碼；或者他們是否可以透過餐飲獲得積分，或者你和我們都不應該這樣做。所以，這個計算需要考慮很多因素。

As we said, we're at -- about 50% of all of our rooms are coming from our loyalty programs. We think that number will grow. We are, I think, in a very early inning while our customers were, both Starwood and Marriott customers, I think we're pleased when we allowed linkage of the loyalty programs on the day of close. To now have one single program means they don't have to go to 2 separate sites, if you will, to see what the options are in the other legacy portfolio.

正如我們所說，我們大約 50% 的客房都來自我們的會員計劃。我們認為這個數字還會成長。我認為，我們還處於起步階段，而我們的客戶，包括喜達屋和萬豪的客戶，都對允許在收盤當天將忠誠度計劃關聯起來感到滿意。現在只需一個程序，就意味著他們不必再訪問兩個不同的網站，就能了解其他傳統產品組合中的選項。

And that means the customers are, just in the last few months now, for the first time, going on and looking at whatever destination they may be going to and seeing a meaningfully broader selection to choose from than they did before. And it means that we are seeing folks who might have driven farther for that SPG hotel or driven farther for that Marriott Rewards hotel before now having options that are a little bit closer to them. And there'll be some in -- there'll be some trading sort of back and forth in both directions, which I think net-net, should drive share of wallet and maybe not disproportionately impact either one.

這意味著，就在最近幾個月，顧客們第一次在瀏覽他們可能要去的目的地時，發現可供選擇的商品種類比以前多得多。這意味著，以前可能需要開車更遠才能入住 SPG 酒店或萬豪禮賞酒店的人們，現在有了離家更近的選擇。而且會有一些進出——會有一些雙向的交易往來，我認為這總體上應該會推動錢包份額的變化，也許不會對任何一方產生不成比例的影響。

We did put in our prepared remarks that redemption volume has gone up significantly. I think that is a powerful sign that people are seeing the value of the choices that are available. And so I tried to put an inning on it, but I would say it's very early in the game in terms of revenue lift and the lift available from the Bonvoy program.

我們在事先準備好的發言稿中提到，贖回量已大幅上升。我認為這有力地表明人們已經認識到現有選擇的價值。所以我嘗試著投入一些精力，但就收入提升和萬豪旅享家計畫所能帶來的提升而言，我認為現在還處於非常早期的階段。

Okay. I guess the operator told us you were last. Thank you very much for being so patient with us. We obviously try and do these things in the morning for obvious reasons. We had our Board meeting and shareholders' meeting this morning, and we're trying to fit an awful lot in, in the same day. And so thanks for waiting until Friday afternoon for us. We appreciate your interest in us. Congratulations, Laura, once again. We'll have you for...

好的。我猜接線生告訴我們你是最後一個。非常感謝你們的耐心等待。出於顯而易見的原因，我們當然會盡量在早上做這些事。今天上午我們召開了董事會會議和股東大會，我們試著在同一天完成很多事情。感謝你們等到週五下午才來。感謝您對我們的關注。再次恭喜勞拉。我們會一直有你…

Thank you.

謝謝。

Another few quarters here, but...

再過幾個季度，但是…

And Happy Mother's Day to everybody.

祝所有母親母親節快樂。

Happy Mother's Day, everybody.

祝各位母親節快樂！

Have a great weekend.

祝你周末愉快。

Make sure you take your mothers or your spouses or whoever is mother-like to you to one of our hotels and celebrate. Have a good weekend.

一定要帶上你的母親、配偶或任何對你來說像母親一樣的人，到我們的一家旅館來慶祝。有一個美好的周末。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。