萬豪國際 (MAR) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Marriott International Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2018年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

I will now turn the call over to Arne Sorenson. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話轉給阿恩·索倫森。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

各位早安。歡迎參加我們2018年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；投資者關係資深副總裁 Laura Paugh；以及投資者關係高級總監 Betsy Dahm。

I should note that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

需要指出的是，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night, along with our comments today, are effective only today, November 6, 2018, and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們今天的評論僅在今天（2018 年 11 月 6 日）有效，不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。

In our discussion today about the income statement, we will talk about results excluding merger-related costs, reimbursed revenues and related expenses, the year-to-date net adjustment to the tax charge related to the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and the year-to-date adjustment to the Avendra gain.

在今天關於損益表的討論中，我們將討論不包括與合併相關的成本、已報銷的收入和相關費用、與 2017 年美國減稅和就業法案相關的稅費年初至今的淨調整以及 Avendra 收益年初至今的調整。

Of course, you can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks at www.marriott.com/investor.

當然，您可以在 www.marriott.com/investor 上找到我們的收益報告以及我們在聲明中提到的所有非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

So let's get started. We are now past the second anniversary of our acquisition of Starwood. And just last week, we met with our North American owners at a largely upbeat Full Service Owners Conference. When we announced our intention to acquire Starwood in 2015, our hotel owners were supportive and upon completion of the deal, remain so. They have provided great feedback throughout the process as we set our priorities for the integration. Today, they are now reaping the benefits from improved cost efficiencies, higher guest satisfaction and the upcoming impact of a more powerful loyalty program.

那麼，我們就開始吧。我們收購喜達屋酒店集團已經過去兩年了。就在上週，我們與北美車主舉行了一場氣氛整體積極的全方位服務車主大會。2015 年我們宣布收購喜達屋酒店集團的意向時，我們的酒店業主們表示支持，交易完成後，他們依然如此。在確定整合工作的優先事項過程中，他們提供了非常寶貴的回饋意見。如今，他們正從成本效益的提高、顧客滿意度的提升以及即將推出的更強大的會員忠誠度計劃的影響中獲益。

Over those last 2 years, we have integrated our operations, sales, marketing, hotel development and finance organizations and systems. We are halfway through moving Legacy-Starwood hotels onto our Marriott reservations platforms and the process is going very well.

在過去的兩年裡，我們整合了營運、銷售、行銷、飯店開發和財務組織及系統。我們正在將原喜達屋酒店遷移到萬豪預訂平台，目前遷移工作已完成一半，進展非常順利。

We've enhanced guest satisfaction by applying Marriott's deep operational know-how and made solid progress on product scores. Costs for both Legacy-Marriott and Legacy-Starwood hotels have been reduced as we captured synergy cost savings at properties, reduced loyalty program charge-out rates across the system and realized procurement savings. We also lowered corporate, general and administrative expenses meaningfully.

我們運用萬豪深厚的營運經驗，提高了賓客滿意度，並在產品評分方面取得了顯著進步。透過我們在飯店實現綜效節省成本、降低整個系統的忠誠度計畫收費率以及實現採購節省，原萬豪酒店和原喜達屋酒店的成本均有所降低。我們也大幅降低了公司營運、一般及行政費用。

After 2 years of planning, we integrated our loyalty programs on August 18, creating one powerful unified program, allowing our members to earn, book and redeem across more than 6,700 hotels. This was an extremely complicated systems challenge as we essentially created a new loyalty platform. While there are always unanticipated challenges with complex systems integrations, our loyalty and IT teams were driven to make this integration go as smoothly as possible.

經過 2 年的規劃，我們於 8 月 18 日整合了我們的忠誠度計劃，創建了一個強大的統一計劃，使我們的會員能夠在 6700 多家酒店賺取、預訂和兌換積分。這是一個極其複雜的系統挑戰，因為我們基本上創建了一個全新的會員忠誠度平台。儘管複雜的系統整合總是會遇到一些意想不到的挑戰，但我們的客戶忠誠度團隊和 IT 團隊都盡力確保此次整合盡可能順利進行。

In the days following cutover, many loyalty members checked their online statements and some discovered errors. Telephone volume to our loyalty lines increased, running up 35% at the peak. Our team immediately identified the problems, and our loyalty telephone agents were quickly trained to help customers with these issues. To be sure, wait times were sometimes too high. Today, call volume to our loyalty lines is running roughly 2% to 3% over seasonal norms and wait times are back to normal.

在系統切換後的幾天裡，許多會員查看了他們的線上帳單，其中一些發現了錯誤。我們的會員專線電話量增加，高峰時增加了 35%。我們的團隊立即發現了問題，並迅速培訓了客戶忠誠度電話客服人員，以幫助客戶解決這些問題。誠然，等待時間有時確實過長。目前，我們會員熱線的通話量比往年同期水準高出約 2% 至 3%，等待時間也已恢復正常。

While we have solved the most significant problems, we are still addressing issues for some customers. For those loyalty members who were affected, we appreciate your patience. One powerful learning from this aspect of the integration, we discovered just how passionate our members are about our loyalty program.

雖然我們已經解決了大多數重大問題，但我們仍在為一些客戶解決一些問題。對於受到影響的會員，我們感謝你們的耐心等待。從整合的這一方面，我們學到的一個重要經驗是，我們的會員對我們的忠誠度計畫有多熱情。

We are already seeing the positive results from the loyalty integration. Our total loyalty membership is now 120 million members. Post-program integration data reveals accelerated bookings from loyalty members, higher luxury redemptions and a growing proportion of bookings from our direct digital channels.

我們已經看到了忠誠度系統整合帶來的正面成果。我們目前的會員總數已達 1.2 億。專案整合後的數據顯示，忠誠會員的預訂量加快，豪華兌換率提高，來自我們直接數位管道的預訂比例不斷增長。

Notwithstanding our focus on integration over the last 2 years, we have not stood still. We entered into a joint venture with Alibaba in Asia, introduced a pilot of Tribute Portfolio Homes in Europe, introduced new loyalty credit cards with JPMorgan Chase and American Express, expanded our mobile offerings to include food and beverage at hotels and began taking cruise reservations for the first Ritz-Carlton yacht.

儘管過去兩年我們一直專注於整合，但我們並沒有停滯不前。我們在亞洲與阿里巴巴成立了合資企業，在歐洲推出了 Tribute Portfolio Homes 試點項目，與摩根大通和美國運通合作推出了新的忠誠度信用卡，將我們的移動服務擴展到酒店的餐飲，並開始接受第一艘麗思卡爾頓遊艇的郵輪預訂。

Beginning in 2019, we are implementing a new program services fee structure for owners that will allow us to manage cost for programs and services in a manner that is simple and predictable. Under this new structure, we expect over 3/4 of hotels will see costs for these programs and services decline.

從 2019 年開始，我們將對業主實施新的專案服務收費結構，以便我們能夠以簡單、可預測的方式管理專案和服務的成本。在這種新結構下，我們預計超過四分之三的酒店在這些項目和服務方面的成本將會下降。

Our new enhanced reservation system, which we call ERS, has been rolled out to over 500 hotels. ERS allows guests to select rooms based on a greater variety of room characteristics such as bed type, view, high or low floor, corridor room, balcony and so on, with more photography and hotel descriptions, allowing greater customer choice and more effective marketing.

我們全新升級的預訂系統（我們稱之為ERS）已推廣至500多家飯店。ERS 讓客人可以根據更多房間特徵（如床型、景觀、樓層高低、走廊房、陽台等）選擇房間，並提供更多圖片和飯店描述，從而為顧客提供更多選擇，並實現更有效的行銷。

Earlier this year, we reduced intermediary commissions for group business from 10% to 7%. Our largest competitors have followed, albeit months after us, which may have permitted them to temporarily benefit from some customer shift.

今年早些時候，我們將集團業務的中介佣金從 10% 降低到 7%。我們最大的競爭對手也跟進，儘管比我們晚了幾個月，但這可能使他們暫時受益於一些客戶的變化。

While not all group business is intermediated, these commissions have been a significant and growing cost for large group hotels. Group meeting customers choose our hotels because of our high-quality service, outstanding rooms and meeting space and reasonable cost.

雖然並非所有團體業務都需要中介，但這些佣金對於大型團體酒店來說一直是一筆不小的、不斷增長的成本。團體會議客戶選擇我們飯店是因為我們提供高品質的服務、一流的客房和會議空間以及合理的價格。

Over the last 12 months, our group RevPAR index is steady. And in the third quarter, RevPAR at our largest group hotels in North America rose 3%.

過去 12 個月，我們集團的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 指數保持穩定。第三季度，我們在北美最大的飯店集團的每間可供出租客房收入成長了 3%。

In revenue management, we are focused on profitability as well as RevPAR. As a measure, RevPAR is easy to understand, readily available in weekly STR reports, but is a blunt instrument for measuring success. Some distribution channels are just too expensive for the value of the business they deliver.

在收益管理方面，我們既關注獲利能力，也關注每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）。作為衡量指標，RevPAR 易於理解，每週的 STR 報告中都有提供，但它是衡量成功的粗略工具。有些分銷通路成本太高，與它們帶來的業務價值不成正比。

In North America, our revenue management systems now consider these distribution costs when deciding which channels to open on any particular night. This has resulted in a decline in OTA business during peak occupancy nights and an increase in direct bookings.

在北美，我們的收益管理系統現在將這些分銷成本考慮在內，以決定在特定夜晚開放哪些頻道。這導致在入住高峰期，OTA 業務量下降，而直接預訂增加。

On a worldwide basis, OTA share of our room nights was flat year-over-year in the third quarter and declined in North America. We believe this likely had a few tenths negative impact on RevPAR growth but a favorable impact on hotel profits.

從全球範圍來看，第三季OTA在我們客房夜數中所佔的份額與去年同期持平，但在北美地區有所下降。我們認為這可能會對每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的成長產生幾個百分點的負面影響，但會對飯店利潤產生有利影響。

Global RevPAR rose roughly 2% in the third quarter with a modest increase in North America and continued robust trends in most international markets. We expect global RevPAR will increase roughly 2% in the fourth quarter and, based on our early budget work, 2% to 3% for the full year 2019.

第三季全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長約 2%，其中北美市場略有成長，而大多數國際市場則持續保持強勁成長動能。我們預計第四季度全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長約 2%，根據我們早期的預算工作，2019 年全年將成長 2% 至 3%。

For North America, third quarter RevPAR increased 0.6%. Group RevPAR increased over 1% with good attendance at meetings and fewer cancellations.

北美地區第三季每間可供出租客房收入成長0.6%。集團每間可供出租客房收入成長超過 1%，會議出席率良好，取消預訂數量減少。

While we anticipated a negative comparison to last year's hurricanes, the decline in U.S. industry transient demand in September was more significant than we anticipated. October looked better than September with stronger transient demand and considerable group business on the books. We are nevertheless taking a slightly more conservative view as we enter the seasonally slow holiday periods, so we are forecasting North American RevPAR growth of 1% for the fourth quarter.

雖然我們預料到今年颶風造成的損失會比去年下降，但9月美國工業臨時需求的下降幅度比我們預期的還要大。10月份的情況比9月好，散客需求更強勁，團體業務也相當可觀。不過，隨著季節性淡季假期的到來，我們採取了更保守的觀點，因此我們預測第四季度北美每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將增加 1%。

For 2019, estimates for U.S. GDP growth point to a slightly slower pace of growth than in 2019 -- excuse me, 2018, which benefited from the tax cut earlier in the year. U.S. lodging supply growth is expected to moderate slightly next year, largely due to shortages of skilled subcontractors, higher construction costs and higher interest rates despite the continued favorable economic climate.

2019 年美國 GDP 成長的估計表明，其成長速度將略低於 2018 年——抱歉，應該是 2018 年，因為 2018 年受益於年初的減稅政策。儘管經濟環境持續向好，但由於熟練分包商短缺、建築成本上升和利率上升等原因，預計明年美國住宿供應成長將略有放緩。

As we consider our 2019 outlook, we note that group revenues on the books in North America for comp hotels in both 2018 and 2019 are modestly higher, consistent with constrained meeting space capacity. Our sales organization is doing a great job.

在展望 2019 年時，我們注意到，2018 年和 2019 年北美地區免費飯店的團體收入略有增加，這與會議空間容量受限的情況相符。我們的銷售團隊做得非常好。

We are negotiating 2019 special corporate rates with our largest corporate clients right now. And while only a few negotiations are complete, we expect 2019 special corporate rates for comparable accounts in North America to rise at a low single-digit rate.

我們目前正在與最大的企業客戶協商 2019 年的特殊企業價格。雖然只有少數談判完成，但我們預計 2019 年北美類似帳戶的特殊企業費率將以較低的個位數成長率上漲。

Given all this, we expect RevPAR in North America will increase 1% to 3% in 2019, which reflects our continued steady-as-she-goes view of lodging demand.

鑑於以上種種，我們預計 2019 年北美地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將增長 1% 至 3%，這反映了我們對住宿需求持續保持穩定的看法。

Let me take a moment to address the strikes that are occurring at 21 of our hotels in 6 North American cities. This is out of a portfolio of 6,700 hotels. We have been negotiating in good faith for many months and we are making progress. We have already reached tentative agreement on national issues, and we have reached a number of local settlements.

請容許我花一點時間來談談目前在北美 6 個城市的 21 家飯店發生的罷工事件。這只是旗下 6700 家飯店的一部分。幾個月來，我們一直本著誠意進行談判，並且取得了進展。我們已經就國家問題達成了初步協議，並且達成了一些地方性解決方案。

Just this weekend, we welcomed our associates back to work after contract settlements in Oakland and Detroit. We hope to welcome more of our associates back to work soon. We don't expect the strikes to have a material impact on our earnings in the fourth quarter.

就在這個週末，我們在奧克蘭和底特律的合約結算完成後，歡迎我們的同事重返工作崗位。我們希望盡快歡迎更多同事重返工作崗位。我們預計罷工不會對我們第四季的收益產生實質影響。

We are humbled by the determination and grace of the associates working today at these 21 hotels who have been steadfast in their commitment to our guests. And we are grateful to the associates across Marriott who have stepped up to work at hotels impacted by strikes, including thousands of people who have traveled from other cities to help. Due to their efforts, our hotels have continued to operate, in many cases, with full occupancy. I couldn't be prouder of the extraordinary dedication of our people.

我們對目前在這 21 家酒店工作的員工們的決心和風度深感敬佩，他們始終堅定不移地致力於為我們的客人服務。我們非常感謝萬豪酒店集團所有挺身而出，在受罷工影響的酒店工作的員工，其中包括數千名從其他城市趕來提供幫助的人。由於他們的努力，我們的酒店得以繼續運營，而且在許多情況下都實現了滿房率。我為我們人民展現的非凡奉獻精神感到無比自豪。

Turning to our international regions. In the Asia Pacific region, system-wide constant-dollar RevPAR increased 6% in the third quarter while RevPAR in Greater China rose 5%, constrained by the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week holidays as well as the Typhoon Mangkhut that struck Hong Kong, Macau and South China.

接下來，讓我們看看國際區域。在亞太地區，第三季系統整體以固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入增長了 6%，而大中華區的每間可供出租客房收入增長了 5%，這受到中秋節和黃金周假期時間以及襲擊香港、澳門和華南地區的颱風「山竹」的限制。

We expect our fourth quarter RevPAR in the region will increase at a mid-single-digit growth rate. Our hotels in Indonesia should benefit from a World Bank event and easy comparisons to last year's volcanic eruption in the fourth quarter. For 2019, we expect Asia Pacific RevPAR will grow at a mid-single-digit rate, reflecting somewhat more modest economic growth assumptions.

我們預計該地區第四季每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將以中等個位數的成長率成長。印尼的飯店應該會受益於世界銀行舉辦的活動，並且可以輕鬆地與去年第四季的火山爆發進行比較。2019 年，我們預期亞太地區每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以中等個位數的速度成長，這反映出經濟成長預期較為溫和。

In Europe, system-wide constant-dollar RevPAR rose 6% in the third quarter, driven by strong results in France, Turkey and Russia as well as greater U.S. travel to the entire region. The 2018 World Cup doubled our RevPAR in Russia. We expect fourth quarter RevPAR in Europe will continue to grow at a mid-single-digit rate, with easier comps in Spain and stronger demand in Munich, Vienna and Rome. For next year, the World Cup will be a tough comparison, but we expect Europe RevPAR will grow at a mid-single-digit rate in 2019.

在歐洲，第三季系統整體以固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入增長了 6%，這主要得益於法國、土耳其和俄羅斯的強勁業績，以及美國遊客前往整個地區的旅行量增加。2018 年世界盃使我們在俄羅斯的每間可供出租客房收入翻了一番。我們預計第四季度歐洲每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將繼續以中等個位數的速度成長，其中西班牙的同店銷售額較低，而慕尼黑、維也納和羅馬的需求更為強勁。明年世界盃將是一個難以比較的因素，但我們預計 2019 年歐洲每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以中等個位數的速度成長。

In the Middle East and Africa region, system-wide constant-dollar RevPAR was flat in the third quarter due to the timing of holidays, continued political tensions in parts of the region and considerable new supply ahead of Expo 2020 in Dubai. RevPAR in Africa alone rose over 7%, reflecting strength in Egypt. We expect RevPAR in the fourth quarter will decline at a low single-digit rate, largely due to the new supply in the UAE and a tough comparison to last year's results at The Ritz-Carlton Riyadh. For 2019, we expect EMEA RevPAR will be flat year-over-year.

由於假期時間、該地區部分地區持續的政治緊張局勢以及迪拜世博會 2020 之前大量的新供應，中東和非洲地區的系統整體按固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 在第三季度保持平穩。光是非洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 就成長了 7% 以上，反映出埃及市場的強勁表現。我們預計第四季度每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以較低的個位數速度下降，這主要是由於阿聯酋的新供應以及與去年利雅得麗思卡爾頓酒店的業績相比存在較大差距。我們預計 2019 年 EMEA 地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將與去年持平。

In CALA, our Caribbean and Latin America region, RevPAR rose 6% in the quarter, with RevPAR at our hotels in the Caribbean up 13% as they continue to benefit from strong transient demand as well as lower industry supply following last year's hurricanes. We expect fourth quarter RevPAR in CALA will increase at a mid-single-digit rate, benefiting from the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires and favorable comps to last year's earthquakes in Mexico. For 2019, we expect RevPAR in the region will increase at a low single-digit rate.

在 CALA（加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區），本季每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 6%，加勒比地區的酒店 RevPAR 增長了 13%，因為它們繼續受益於強勁的短期需求以及去年颶風後行業供應的減少。我們預計，受即將在布宜諾斯艾利斯舉行的 G20 峰會以及去年墨西哥地震帶來的有利基數影響，CALA 地區的第四季度每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以中等個位數的速度增長。我們預計 2019 年該地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以較低的個位數速度成長。

Our brands are strong and continue to be preferred by developers and lenders alike. As of the end of the quarter, our development pipeline totaled roughly 471,000 rooms, including more than 212,000 rooms under construction. According to STR, we continue to have the largest pipeline of rooms under development in the world, including more high-value luxury and upper-upscale rooms than our next 3 competitors combined.

我們的品牌實力雄厚，持續受到開發商和貸款機構的青睞。截至本季末，我們的在建工程總計約 471,000 間客房，其中超過 212,000 間客房正在興建中。根據 STR 的數據，我們目前擁有全球最大的在建客房項目儲備，其中包括比排名第二和第三的競爭對手加起來還要多的高價值豪華客房和高檔客房。

Based on third quarter STR industry pipeline data worldwide, 1 in 5 hotels under construction will open under one of our brands. In the U.S. alone, 1 in 3 hotels under construction will fly one of our flags. And in the valuable upscale and above tiers in the U.S., 50% of hotels under construction will be under a Marriott International brand.

根據第三季全球短租飯店業在建專案數據，在建飯店中每 5 家就有 1 家將以我們的品牌之一開業。光是在美國，在建酒店中就有三分之一將懸掛我們的旗幟。在美國的高檔及以上檔次飯店中，50% 的在建飯店將屬於萬豪國際品牌。

With this pipeline, in 2018, we expect our rooms will grow by nearly 7% gross. Deletions in 2018 should total nearly 2% of our existing portfolio. Our brand improvement efforts and owner workouts account for the unusually high level of deletions of Legacy-Starwood product in 2018. In total, we continue to expect net rooms growth to be roughly 5% in 2018.

憑藉這條發展路線，我們預計 2018 年客房總數將成長近 7%。2018 年的刪除數量應該占我們現有投資組合的近 2%。2018 年 Legacy-Starwood 產品下架數量異常高，這歸因於我們的品牌改進工作和業主重組計劃。整體而言，我們仍預期 2018 年淨客房成長率約為 5%。

For 2019, we expect gross room growth will be similar to this year, while room deletions should moderate to 1% to 1.5%. Net unit growth should total roughly 5.5%.

我們預計 2019 年客房總成長率將與今年類似，而客房減少量應會放緩至 1% 至 1.5%。淨單位成長總量應約為 5.5%。

We do not see an economic downturn on the horizon. But given recent stock market volatility, there is clearly uncertainty about the direction of the U.S. economy. Regardless of the economy's performance, given long construction cycles, our strong unit growth should continue for some time. In fact, looking back at the last downturn, our gross room additions totaled 6% in 2008 and 7% in 2009. Our unit growth bottomed at 3% in 2012 but was back to 5% just 2 years later.

我們預計近期不會出現經濟衰退。但鑑於近期股市波動，美國經濟走向顯然存在不確定性。無論經濟狀況如何，考慮到建築週期較長，我們強勁的單位成長動能應該會持續一段時間。事實上，回顧上一次經濟衰退，我們在 2008 年的客房總新增量為 6%，2009 年為 7%。2012年，我們的單位成長率跌至3%的低點，但短短兩年後就回升至5%。

We are committed to our asset-light business model by managing or franchising hotels rather than owning them. Our unit growth is faster. Significant economies of scale benefit our owners and customers, our return on investment is higher, and we generate considerable excess cash flow to invest or return to our shareholders.

我們致力於輕資產的商業模式，透過管理或特許經營酒店而非擁有酒店來實現這一目標。我們的單位成長速度更快。顯著的規模經濟效益使我們的所有者和客戶受益，我們的投資回報率更高，並且我們產生了可觀的超額現金流，可用於投資或返還給股東。

For more about our business model and the third quarter, here's Leeny.

想了解更多關於我們商業模式和第三季度的信息，請聽Leeny的介紹。

Thanks, Arne. Our third quarter financial performance was solid. Adjusted diluted earnings per share totaled $1.70, 62% over the prior year quarter and $0.41 over the midpoint of our guidance.

謝謝你，阿恩。我們第三季的財務業績表現穩健。經調整後的稀釋每股收益總計 1.70 美元，比上年同期增長 62%，比我們預期的中點高出 0.41 美元。

Our gross fee revenue line yielded about $0.01 of the outperformance, largely due to strong branding fees; $0.04 came from better-than-expected performance on the owned and leased line, largely related to termination fees; $0.03 came from better-than-expected general and administrative expenses, reflecting continued synergies and favorable timing; $0.15 came from gains on the sale of assets, including the sale of a hotel in a joint venture; $0.14 came from favorable discrete tax items and the tax impact of asset sales; with the balance of the outperformance from depreciation, amortization and net interest expense.

我們毛手續費收入貢獻了約 0.01 美元的超額收益，主要得益於強勁的品牌費；0.04 美元來自自有和租賃業務超出預期的業績，主要與終止費有關；0.03 美元來自超出預期的管理費用，反映了持續的協同效應和有利的時機；0.15 美元來自超出預期的管理費用，反映了持續的協同效應和有利的時機；0.15 美元來自銷售資產，包括出售合約的收益的收益。美元來自有利的單項稅務項目和資產出售的稅務影響；其餘超額收益來自折舊、攤提和淨利息支出。

Gross fee revenues totaled $932 million, a 13% increase year-over-year, largely from unit growth, RevPAR gains and higher incentive fees and branding fees. Credit card branding fees alone totaled $101 million, including $6 million associated with the true-up of fees earned in prior periods. Credit card branding fees totaled $59 million in the year-ago quarter.

總費用收入達 9.32 億美元，年增 13%，主要得益於單位數量增長、每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長以及更高的激勵費用和品牌推廣費用。光是信用卡品牌推廣費就高達 1.01 億美元，其中包括與前期已賺取費用的結算相關的 600 萬美元。去年同期，信用卡品牌推廣費用總計 5,900 萬美元。

For our company-operated hotels, house profit margins increased 20 basis points worldwide on continued property synergy savings despite accelerating wage increases. Incentive fees increased 9% in the third quarter, driven by strength in Asia Pacific and Europe.

儘管薪資成長加速，但由於持續的物業協同效應節省，我們公司自營酒店的全球酒店利潤率提高了 20 個基點。受亞太和歐洲市場強勁成長的推動，第三季激勵費用成長了 9%。

Owned, leased and other revenue, net of expenses, totaled $82 million in the third quarter, flat with the prior year. Property dispositions reduced owned/leased results in the quarter by $23 million year-over-year. Termination fees totaled $23 million in the quarter compared to $5 million in the prior year. For owned or leased hotels that were opened in the third quarter of both years, profits increased nearly 5% in the quarter.

第三季度，自有資產、租賃資產和其他收入（扣除支出後）總計 8,200 萬美元，與去年同期持平。本季度，物業處置導致自有/租賃業績年減 2,300 萬美元。本季終止費總額為 2,300 萬美元，而上年同期為 500 萬美元。對於這兩年第三季開業的自有或租賃酒店，該季度利潤增長了近 5%。

General and administrative expenses totaled $221 million, 8% higher than the prior year. The 2018 quarter included the company-funded supplemental retirement savings plan contribution totaling $7 million, while in the year-ago quarter, we recognized a $6 million tax incentive benefit.

一般及行政費用總計 2.21 億美元，較上年增長 8%。2018 年第一季度，公司出資的補充退休儲蓄計畫繳款總額為 700 萬美元；而去年同期，我們確認了 600 萬美元的稅收優惠。

Gains and other income totaled $18 million, including a $12 million favorable adjustment associated with the sale of 2 hotels in Fiji made earlier in the year and a $4 million gain on the sale of our interest in a joint venture. We also reported a $55 million gain on the equity and earnings line as one of our joint ventures sold a JW Marriott hotel in Mexico City.

收益和其他收入總計 1800 萬美元，其中包括年初出售斐濟 2 家酒店獲得的 1200 萬美元有利調整，以及出售我們在合資企業中的權益獲得的 400 萬美元收益。我們還報告稱，由於我們的一家合資企業出售了位於墨西哥城的 JW 萬豪酒店，權益和收益方面獲得了 5500 萬美元的收益。

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 12% to $900 million despite a $19 million negative impact from sold assets.

儘管出售資產造成了 1,900 萬美元的負面影響，但第三季調整後 EBITDA 仍成長了 12%，達到 9 億美元。

Looking ahead, given our worldwide RevPAR and unit growth assumptions, we expect gross fee revenue for the fourth quarter will total $900 million to $910 million, a 4% to 6% increase over the prior year. Year-over-year, we don't expect foreign exchange to have a material impact on our fourth quarter gross fees.

展望未來，根據我們對全球每間可供出租客房收入和單位成長的假設，我們預計第四季度總費用收入將達到 9 億美元至 9.1 億美元，比上年增長 4% 至 6%。與去年同期相比，我們預計外匯波動不會對我們第四季的總費用產生重大影響。

Fourth quarter fee revenue is about $30 million lower than the midpoint of our prior guidance. Unfavorable foreign exchange accounts for about $10 million of that decline. Our modestly low-ish RevPAR estimate accounts for about $15 million, with the timing of residential branding fees covering the balance.

第四季手續費收入比我們之前預期的中位數低約 3000 萬美元。不利的匯率因素造成了約 1000 萬美元的損失。我們略低的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 估計約為 1500 萬美元，剩餘部分將由住宅品牌推廣費的到賬時間來彌補。

We expect owned, leased and other revenue, net of direct expenses, will total roughly $90 million in the fourth quarter. Compared to last year, results should reflect stronger hotel results and higher termination fees as well as a $13 million negative impact from sold hotels. Our guidance assumes no further asset sales beyond those that have been completed.

我們預計第四季度自有、租賃和其他收入（扣除直接費用後）總計約為 9,000 萬美元。與去年相比，業績應反映出更強勁的酒店業績、更高的終止費用以及出售酒店帶來的 1,300 萬美元負面影響。我們的指導意見假設除已完成的資產出售外，不會再有其他資產出售。

G&A should total $245 million to $250 million in the fourth quarter, including roughly $6 million for our contribution to the company-funded supplemental retirement savings plan and associate support programs. The increase compared to our prior fourth quarter guidance is largely related to timing.

第四季一般及行政費用總額應為 2.45 億美元至 2.5 億美元，其中包括我們向公司出資的補充退休儲蓄計畫和員工支援計畫繳納的約 600 萬美元。與我們之前第四季的預期相比，此次成長主要與時間安排有關。

We expect net interest expense will total $90 million in the fourth quarter. Compared to our prior forecast, this reflects higher fixed-rate borrowings, higher interest rates and lower interest income.

我們預計第四季淨利息支出總額將達到9,000萬美元。與我們先前的預測相比，這反映了更高的固定利率借款、更高的利率和更低的利息收入。

These assumptions yield $1.37 to $1.41 adjusted diluted earnings per share and 7% to 9% growth in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter. For the full year 2018, we expect adjusted earnings per share will total $6.15 to $6.18 and adjusted EBITDA should increase 10% to 11%.

根據這些假設，第四季度調整後稀釋每股收益為 1.37 美元至 1.41 美元，調整後 EBITDA 成長 7% 至 9%。我們預計 2018 年全年調整後每股盈餘將達到 6.15 美元至 6.18 美元，調整後 EBITDA 應成長 10% 至 11%。

We aren't prepared to provide guidance for 2019 as we've not yet finished our budget process. But as you consider your models for 2019, we want to note that our 2018 full year forecast for owned, leased and other revenue, net of direct expenses, includes roughly $70 million of termination fees largely associated with the rooms deleted in 2018. A more normal run rate for termination fees is $20 million to $30 million annually.

由於預算編制工作尚未完成，我們目前無法提供 2019 年的指導意見。但在您考慮 2019 年的模型時，我們想指出，我們 2018 年全年自有、租賃和其他收入的預測（扣除直接費用後）包括約 7000 萬美元的終止費，這筆費用主要與 2018 年刪除的客房有關。終止合約費用的正常水準為每年 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元。

Year-to-date, we've recycled nearly $630 million of capital through asset sales and loan repayments and recycled more than $1.8 billion of capital since our acquisition of Starwood. Compared to our last view of 2018, cash flow has improved due to lower cash taxes, lower investment spending and higher asset sales.

今年迄今為止，我們透過資產出售和貸款償還回收了近 6.3 億美元的資本，自收購喜達屋以來，我們已回收了超過 18 億美元的資本。與我們 2018 年的上次評估相比，由於現金稅收減少、投資支出減少和資產出售增加，現金流有所改善。

We repurchased nearly 21 million shares from January 1 through yesterday for approximately $2.7 billion, already exceeding our guidance for the full year 2018. As a result, we now expect to return roughly $3.7 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2018.

從 1 月 1 日到昨天，我們回購了近 2,100 萬股股票，總額約為 27 億美元，已經超過了我們對 2018 年全年的預期。因此，我們預計 2018 年將透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還約 37 億美元。

Our asset-light business model is attractive because of its low risk profile, with most of our cash flow coming from hotel base and franchise fees typically earned as a percentage of the hotel's top line. Of course, incentive fees are sensitive to demand trends. This is particularly true for management agreements that include a priority return to the owner, which, in a significant downturn, can drive a property's incentive fee down meaningfully.

我們的輕資產商業模式具有吸引力，因為它的風險較低，我們的大部分現金流來自酒店基本收入和特許經營費，這些費用通常是按酒店營業額的一定比例收取的。當然，激勵費用對需求趨勢很敏感。對於包含優先向業主返還收益條款的管理協議而言，情況尤其如此，在經濟大幅下滑時，這可能會大幅降低物業的激勵費用。

Marriott has limited exposure to this risk. Our incentive fees represent less than 20% of our total fees, and of those, nearly 2/3 come from international markets, which frequently have no owner priority and therefore, hold up better in a weak economy.

萬豪酒店面臨的這種風險有限。我們的激勵費用佔總費用的不到 20%，其中近 2/3 來自國際市場，這些市場通常沒有所有者優先權，因此在經濟疲軟的情況下表現較好。

Over the last 10 years, Marriott fee revenue has become relatively less risky as we have increased our proportion of both franchise and international business. You may recall that we spun off our timeshare business in 2011. In 2007, our timeshare segment alone accounted for roughly 1/4 of our operating income. Today, we only earn a largely fixed franchise fee from our timeshare business.

過去 10 年，隨著我們增加了特許經營和國際業務的比例，萬豪酒店的費用收入風險相對降低了。您可能還記得，我們​​在 2011 年剝離了分時度假業務。2007 年，僅分時度假業務就佔了我們營業收入的約 1/4。目前，我們的分時度假業務僅收取一筆基本固定的特許經營費。

Overall, while our business has been asset-light for many years, we have also meaningfully improved our risk profile with our growth strategy and expect to continue to do so.

總體而言，雖然我們的業務多年來一直保持輕資產狀態，但我們的成長策略也顯著改善了我們的風險狀況，並期望繼續這樣做。

Now I'll turn it back over to Arne who has a few more comments before we go to Q&A.

現在我把麥克風交還給阿恩，在進入問答環節之前，他還有幾點要補充。

Thanks, Leeny. Before opening it up for questions, let me pause for one more moment to thank the Marriott associates around the world who have worked so extraordinarily effectively on our integration journey. We have had thousands of associates working around the clock to pull these 2 technology platforms together. And based on their work and the work that precedes it, by every measure, we can now say we are one company and we are very bullish about the long-term opportunities we can pursue.

謝謝你，莉妮。在正式開始提問之前，請容許我再花一點時間感謝世界各地的萬豪員工，他們在我們的整合過程中做出了非常卓有成效的貢獻。我們數千名員工日以繼夜地工作，才將這兩個技術平台整合在一起。根據他們的工作以及之前的工作，從各個方面來看，我們現在可以說我們是一家公司，我們對可以追求的長期機會非常樂觀。

We are excited about our future and plan to talk to you, the investors, more about it at our Analyst Day in New York scheduled for Monday, March 18 at the New York Marquis. Please save the date.

我們對未來充滿信心，並計劃在 3 月 18 日星期一於紐約侯爵酒店舉行的分析師日上與各位投資者進行更深入的交流。請預留時間。

Let's turn to your questions. (Operator Instructions) Christie, we'll take questions now.

現在我們來回答你們的問題。（操作員指示）克里斯蒂，現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question is from Robin Farley of UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

I wanted to ask a little bit about the deal with Host Hotels that they talked about in their release last week, where you'll be sort of guaranteeing some profits for -- during disruption of renovations.

我想問一下關於 Host Hotels 上週發布的公告中提到的那項協議，該協議旨在保證在裝修中斷期間獲得一些利潤。

And I guess, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about why you're doing that. It seems unusual. I don't recall you having done that before. And would that be like a reduction in your fee revenue or somehow capital spend for you or just how we should think about that?

我想問您能否稍微談談您為什麼要這樣做。這似乎不太尋常。我不記得你以前做過這件事。那會不會代表你們的手續費收入減少，或是資本支出減少？或者我們該怎麼看待這個問題？

Yes. Thanks, Robin. It's a great question. Let me start just by saying that the relationship between Marriott and Host today is as strong as I've seen it in many, many years. The companies are working together extraordinarily well with high transparency between the 2 companies and a strong sense of collaboration about what we can accomplish together.

是的。謝謝你，羅賓。這是一個很好的問題。首先我想說的是，萬豪酒店集團和Host公司如今的關係是我多年來見過的最牢固的。兩家公司合作非常出色，彼此之間保持著高度透明，並且對共同能夠取得的成就有著強烈的合作意識。

I think the deal that Host described in their call is just the most recent example of that and it's an exciting one for us and for them, I think, both. Obviously, it is focused on 17 very prominent hotels in our system, including the New York Marriott Marquis, the San Francisco Marquis, the Orlando World Center, just to name a few.

我認為 Host 在電話會議中描述的這筆交易是最新的一個例子，這對我們和他們來說都是令人興奮的。顯然，它重點關注我們系統中 17 家非常著名的酒店，包括紐約萬豪侯爵酒店、舊金山侯爵酒店、奧蘭多世界中心酒店等等。

And I think what Host and we saw together was that by increasing the renovation capital that went into those hotels, we could drive better returns for Host as an owner and, if models are right, for Marriott International as manager of those hotels. Because it was a substantial amount of incremental capital that Host was preparing to commit into these hotels and in light of numerous aspects of these deals, including our incentive fee formulas and base management fees, it was very much in our interest to participate financially in incenting that program.

我認為，Host 和我們都看到了，透過增加對這些酒店的翻新投入，我們可以為作為業主的 Host 帶來更好的回報，如果模型正確的話，也可以為作為這些酒店管理方的萬豪國際帶來更好的回報。由於 Host 準備向這些酒店投入大量新增資本，並考慮到這些交易的諸多方面，包括我們的激勵費用公式和基本管理費，因此，參與該計劃的激勵措施對我們的利益非常有利。

We'll have roughly $80 million of key money, which will be provided over 4 years, which is a partial incentive to Host to get that done. There will be adjustments in the incentive fee formulas, which is quite typical in many respects when new capital, in other words, capital over and above FF&E reserve gets put into hotels, typically, an owner will get incremental owner's priority for that.

我們將獲得約 8000 萬美元的關鍵資金，這筆資金將在 4 年內提供，這在一定程度上激勵 Host 完成這項工作。激勵費用公式將會進行調整，這在許多方面都很常見，因為當新的資本（換句話說，就是超出家具、設備及用品儲備的資本）投入酒店時，業主通常會獲得額外的業主優先權。

At the same time, we believe that if the hotels perform the way we anticipate them to perform, we will see an incentive fee formula that maybe gives them a higher priority but actually produces more dollars for us as well as more returns for them. So we're really excited about it and just can't wait to see the way these hotels would be transformed.

同時，我們相信，如果飯店的業績達到我們預期，我們將看到一種激勵費用公式，該公式可能會給予飯店更高的優先級，但實際上會為我們帶來更多收入，同時也會為他們帶來更多回報。所以我們對此感到非常興奮，迫不及待想看看這些飯店會如何改造。

That's great. And maybe just as my follow-up, just looking at your RevPAR guidance for 2019, it looks like the first time in many years that your range has only been 100 basis points. And typically, over the years, you've given a 200-basis-point range. I'm just wondering, given the -- if anything's sort of maybe increased uncertainty about next year, why the tighter range or what was the thought there?

那太棒了。另外，我想補充一點，我看了看你們 2019 年的 RevPAR 指引，似乎是多年來第一次你們的指引範圍只有 100 個基點。通常情況下，多年來，你們給的範圍是 200 個基點。我只是想知道，考慮到明年可能存在更多不確定性，為什麼預期範圍會更窄，或者當時的考慮是什麼？

Maybe we just want to prove that old dogs can learn new tricks. The -- it is -- we obviously go through this carefully and probably, we should start by restating the obvious here, which is we have not done the full budgeting process, so we're not completed. We have looked carefully at the preliminary things that we've got coming in and using the tools that we have.

或許我們只是想證明老狗也能學會新把戲。顯然，我們會仔細審查此事，而且，或許我們應該先重申一個顯而易見的事實，那就是我們還沒有完成完整的預算編制過程，所以我們還沒有完成。我們已經仔細研究了即將到來的初步成果，並利用了我們現有的工具。

And what we see is something that we think looks a fair bit like 2018. And as we did the math, we thought 2% to 3% was a more relevant 1-point range to give you than to give you a 2-point range that could be either below or above that. But neither of those seem to be as accurate as we wanted to be at this point in time. And so 2% to 3% is what we came up with, obviously, with a bit broader range in the U.S. guidance.

我們看到的情況，與 2018 年的情況非常相似。我們計算後認為，2% 到 3% 是一個更相關的 1 點範圍，而不是可能低於或高於該範圍的 2 點範圍。但就目前而言，這兩種方法似乎都不夠準確。因此，我們最終得出的結果是 2% 到 3%，顯然，美國的指導範圍更廣一些。

Your next question is from David Katz of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·卡茨。

If I can go back in the prepared remarks, Arne, I think you mentioned some uncertainty around the economy, but that your unit growth should continue.

阿恩，如果我可以回顧你事先準備好的發言稿，我想你提到了經濟方面的一些不確定性，但你的單位成長應該會繼續下去。

Can we just sort of pick that a little bit deeper from the perspective that if the economy were, and I'm not asserting that it will, but if it were to turn in a less positive direction, wouldn't the implication be harder that getting projects open and on the board, et cetera, would become more challenging as well? Why are you comfortable with that?

我們能否從另一個角度更深入地探討一下：如果經濟狀況（我並不是說一定會如此，但如果真的朝著不太好的方向發展），那麼專案啟動、進入董事會等等，豈不是也會變得更加困難嗎？為什麼對此感到自在？

Well, I think the biggest reason -- it's a good question, David. I think the biggest reason for that is that the near-term openings, and I would think about those as being not just 2019 actually, but probably 2019 and 2020, are well underway. Overwhelmingly, they are under construction today.

嗯，我認為最大的原因是──問得好，大衛。我認為最大的原因是，近期內的開放計畫（我指的是不僅僅是 2019 年，而是可能包括 2019 年和 2020 年）已經全面展開。絕大多數目前都在施工中。

And while it is not necessarily the case that they will proceed without a bump, no matter what the economic environment, what we've seen in prior economic cycles, is projects like that proceed toward completion and opening. And the intake of new deals into the development pipeline will, for certain, be impacted by a materially weaker economic environment but probably will not impact openings until we get a few years out.

雖然這些項目不一定會一帆風順，無論經濟環境如何，但我們在以往的經濟週期中看到的是，這類項目最終都會完成並投入使用。可以肯定的是，經濟環境明顯疲軟將影響新專案的開發進度，但可能要過幾年才會影響專案的開幕。

Got it. And if I can just ask on the heels of the impressive integration that you've gone through and talked about, and I apologize if you commented on this, but with respect to SPG members in particular, there's been a focus on retaining and enhancing that relationship.

知道了。鑑於您已經完成並談到了令人印象深刻的整合工作，我謹在此提出一個問題（如果您已經就此發表過評論，我深表歉意），特別是關於SPG會員，目前的工作重點是保持和加強這種關係。

What measurements or what are you looking at to feel comfortable that those people, those members are still on board? And is there any sort of data to support that?

你透過哪些指標或觀察哪些面向來確信這些人、這些成員仍然留在團隊中？是否有任何數據支持這項說法？

Yes, good questions. And obviously, this is something that we will continue to be watching like a hawk. And ultimately, we will have access to quite granular data, which allows us to look at the spending patterns of SPG members and look at whether we see any signs that those spending patterns have increased or decreased in the wake of the merger of the loyalty programs.

是的，問得好。顯然，我們會繼續密切關注此事。最終，我們將獲得非常細緻的數據，這使我們能夠查看 SPG 會員的消費模式，並查看在忠誠度計劃合併後，這些消費模式是否有任何增加或減少的跡象。

As a reminder, it was August 18, so we are a couple of months into it now, but it's still quite recent. We know, and we put this in the prepared remarks, we know already that we are seeing a substantial increase in digital bookings -- somebody's not got us on mute, I think. Sorry about that. I don't know where the laughing is coming from. We are seeing a substantial increase in digital volume. We are seeing more and more eyeballs look at hotels in the combined set.

提醒一下，那天是 8 月 18 日，雖然現在已經過去幾個月了，但這件事仍然相當近期。我們知道，而且我們在準備好的演講稿中也提到了，我們已經看到數位預訂量大幅增加——我想，肯定有人沒把我們靜音。抱歉。我不知道這笑聲是從哪裡來的。我們看到數位交易量大幅增加。我們看到越來越多的人關注合併資料集中的飯店。

And so our preliminary data gives us considerable comfort that what is logically obvious will turn out to be a reality. And what is logically obvious is that by offering our customers more choice with more places both to earn and redeem points and more of our customers going to one single site to see all of our portfolio, that we will increase share of wallet from the customers as well as grow the loyalty program.

因此，我們的初步數據讓我們相當有信心，邏輯上顯而易見的事情最終會成為現實。顯而易見，透過為我們的客戶提供更多賺取和兌換積分的途徑，並讓更多客戶訪問同一個網站查看我們所有的產品組合，我們將提高客戶的錢包份額，並發展忠誠度計劃。

But stay tuned for that. We'll have data over the next number of quarters, it will be particularly the most important thing we're looking at.

敬請期待。接下來幾季我們將獲得相關數據，這將是我們重點關注的內容。

Your next question is from David Beckel of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的戴維·貝克爾。

This is Apple on behalf of Dave. Can you please give us an update on your home-sharing trial? And do you think that will become an official project? And what feasibility is proving out?

這是蘋果代表戴夫寄來的。請問您能否向我們介紹一下您的房屋共享試用計畫的最新進展？你認為這會成為一個正式計畫嗎？那麼，可行性究竟如何呢？

Yes. So we've been very pleased with the pilot so far. We started in London, I would say, 4 or 5 months ago, although I may be a bit imprecise on the precise start date.

是的。所以到目前為止，我們對這架試飛機非常滿意。我想說，我們大約在四、五個月前從倫敦開始，雖然我可能對確切的開始日期不太準確。

And the plan in London was to work with a partner who essentially curates the units that would be available on our site. Those units would, obviously, have a linkage to our loyalty program. And we looked for units, which were, a, big enough to be distinct from a traditional hotel room; and b, of a kind of quality that we felt good about having our loyalty program and brands associated with.

倫敦的計劃是與一家合作夥伴合作，由該合作夥伴負責挑選我們網站上提供的房源。顯然，這些單元將與我們的會員忠誠計劃掛鉤。我們尋找的房型，a 必須足夠大，才能與傳統的酒店房間有所區別；b 必須具備我們樂於與我們的會員計劃和品牌聯繫起來的品質。

The first wave of that pilot was really about assessing what happened in London. And we saw really good results. For example, I think 85% of the folks that booked were our loyalty members. It looked like mostly leisure and business, which was not surprising to us.

這個試點計畫的第一階段實際上是為了評估倫敦發生的情況。我們取得了非常好的結果。例如，我認為預訂者中有 85% 是我們的會員。看起來主要是休閒和商務活動，這並沒有讓我們感到驚訝。

And it looked like it was accretive to our total business in the market with, by the way, good synergy with hotel bookings too. So we saw people that would look at our home-sharing units and ultimately, many would book with those, but many would come and book with hotel rooms too because they were looking at essentially both portfolios.

而且看起來它對我們在該市場的整體業務有所好處，順便說一句，它與酒店預訂也有很好的協同效應。所以我們看到，有些人會查看我們的房屋共享單元，最終很多人會預訂這些單元，但也有很多人會預訂酒店房間，因為他們基本上同時查看了這兩種房型。

In any event, it went well enough that we have now expanded that to phase 2, which includes Paris, Lisbon and Rome. So we're in 4 markets in Europe, and we are very encouraged by what we've seen so far. So stay tuned, we'll see where it goes.

總之，進展非常順利，我們現在已經將其擴展到第二階段，包括巴黎、里斯本和羅馬。目前我們已進入歐洲的 4 個市場，並且對目前為止所看到的情況感到非常鼓舞。敬請期待，我們拭目以待。

Your next question comes from Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So your net room guidance implies that the exits may have stabilized. Are you guys feeling more confident that the uptick in your guidance from last quarter, which I think was largely involuntary exits, but are you feeling more confident that, that was more of a one-off? And I guess, what sort of gives you that confidence going into 2019?

因此，根據你的淨房間指導，出口可能已經穩定下來了。你們是否更有信心，認為上一季業績預期上調主要是因為非自願離職造成的？那麼，是什麼讓你對即將到來的 2019 年充滿信心呢？

Yes. So I'll let Leeny talk about 2019, but let me just make a comment about 2018 and what we saw in terms of deletions. Obviously, there was a lot of Q&A about this a quarter ago. I think we brought up the numbers by roughly 0.5 point in terms of number of units that would leave our system in 2018 compared to what we had talked about the quarter before.

是的。那麼，就讓 Leeny 來談談 2019 年的情況吧，但我只想對 2018 年以及我們在刪除方面看到的情況發表一些評論。顯然，三個月前就有很多關於這方面的問答。我認為，與上一季我們討論的數據相比，2018 年離開我們系統的單元數量增加了約 0.5 個百分點。

And not entirely involuntary, I'll quibble with you a little bit on that. It's not as if every hotel leaving our system is something that we want to leave, but many are. And actually, when you look at Q3 numbers, we deleted about 6,000 rooms in Q3, just a bit over that. There was a big portfolio of Gen 2, Generation 2 Fairfield Inns, maybe about 1,300 rooms that we worked with our franchisee and hotel owner to have exit the system.

而且這並非完全是無意識的，關於這一點，我還有一些異議。並不是說我們系統裡的每一家酒店都是我們想離開的，但確實有很多酒店是這樣的。實際上，如果你看一下第三季的數據，我們在第三季刪除了大約 6000 間客房，略多於這個數字。我們與加盟商和飯店業主合作，讓大量第二代費爾菲爾德飯店（Gen 2 Fairfield Inns）退出市場，這些飯店約有 1300 間客房。

And they -- that was the right answer because those hotels did not justify the kind of capital they needed to remain competitive. And we think, from a product quality perspective and an ability to replace probably in a number of those markets, that was a no-brainer for us.

而他們的答案是正確的，因為這些飯店不值得投入所需的資金來保持競爭力。從產品品質和在許多市場中可能實現替代的能力來看，我們認為這對我們來說是理所當然的選擇。

There was a story in Dubai, which I think is familiar to everybody, about an owner who really wanted to operate it under a franchise contract and we decided to part ways with them. And we don't really have much more to say to that, but that was another 1,700 or 1,800 rooms. And then there was another 1,700 or 1,800 rooms which were in Las Vegas, and that was a negotiation with the owner of those projects, but there's a significant quality aspect of those conversations. And I think we are quite satisfied with the way all of those discussions came out.

在杜拜發生過這樣一個故事，我想大家都耳熟能詳：一位業主非常希望以特許經營合約的方式經營，但我們決定與他們分道揚鑣。我們對此也沒什麼好說的了，但那又是另外 1700 或 1800 個房間。此外，還有 1700 或 1800 間位於拉斯維加斯的房間，那是與這些項目的所有者進行的談判，但這些對話中有一個重要的品質方面。我認為我們對所有這些討論的結果都相當滿意。

The challenge, of course, when you have a few big ones like that, whether they'd be a portfolio of Fairfields or a couple of individual projects, is they can have an impact to what happens in a quarter. I think we would have loved to have been able to say, I think you probably would have loved to hear from us that it was only about repositioning Sheraton, for example, which we are doing and making great progress on that.

當然，挑戰在於，當你有幾個像這樣的大項目時，無論是 Fairfields 的投資組合還是幾個單獨的項目，它們都可能對一個季度的業績產生影響。我想我們很想說，你們可能也很想聽到我們說，這僅僅是關於重新定位喜來登酒店，例如，我們正在這樣做，並且在這方面取得了很大的進展。

That would be a bit of an oversimplification. It is a mix of things, but they do include, in the fullness of the year, some about repositioning the Sheraton brand, significantly about product quality and, to some extent, about discussions with owners that had been left unresolved for too long and we're now getting around to getting those resolved. But as we've looked early into 2019, and Leeny can talk about this, I'm -- we're optimistic that we're going to sort of return a bit more towards normal levels.

那未免過於簡化了。事情有很多方面，但總的來說，包括重新定位喜來登品牌、提高產品質量，以及與業主進行一些長期未解決的討論，我們現在正在著手解決這些問題。但正如我們展望 2019 年初時所看到的，Leeny 可以談談這一點，我——我們樂觀地認為，我們將逐漸恢復到正常水平。

Just to follow on Arne's comments, we continue to do a scrub, as we do all the time, about hotels that are either coming to the end of their contract or discussions that we're having on ongoing product improvements, et cetera. And as we look through in each and every continent, both Legacy-Marriott portfolio as well as Legacy-Starwood, we do feel good about the 1% to 1.5% that we've described today.

就像 Arne 的評論一樣，我們會繼續進行審查，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣，審查對象包括合約即將到期的酒店，以及我們正在討論的持續產品改進等事宜。當我們縱觀各大洲，無論是萬豪集團旗下酒店還是喜達屋集團旗下酒店，我們都對今天所說的 1% 到 1.5% 的增長感到滿意。

If you remember what we talked about a quarter ago, we talked about the more normal rate for the Legacy-Marriott portfolio of 1% to 1.5% in 2018 for deletions, while a number that would be well over 2% for the Legacy-Starwood portfolio.

如果你還記得我們上個季度討論的內容，我們當時談到，2018 年 Legacy-Marriott 投資組合的正常刪除率為 1% 至 1.5%，而 Legacy-Starwood 投資組合的刪除率則遠遠超過 2%。

And as we, again, described it, for a host of reasons, to some extent, kind of some issues that may have been hanging around since before the merger, while as we've worked through them and now look forward, we see the number for the Legacy-Marriott portfolio in '19 continuing to be the stereotypical 1% to 1.5% and the Legacy-Starwood moving down much closer to a more normal level as we look at the terminations. So overall, looking at 1% to 1.5%.

正如我們再次描述的那樣，由於種種原因，在某種程度上，一些問題可能從合併之前就一直存在，而隨著我們逐步解決這些問題並展望未來，我們看到2019年Legacy-Marriott投資組合的佔比將繼續保持在典型的1%到1.5%之間，而Legacy-Starwood投資組合的佔比將繼續保持在典型的1%到1.5%之間，而Legacy-Starwood投資組合的佔比隨著情況更接近終止的正常水平。所以總體來說，預計在 1% 到 1.5% 之間。

Great, that's helpful. And I just want to go back to the comments about a weaker transient environment in September. Do you think you just underestimated the calendar and the holiday impacts? Or do you think there was more to it than that?

太好了，這很有幫助。我只想回到之前關於九月瞬態環境減弱的評論。你覺得你是不是低估了日曆和假日的影響？還是你認為事情還有更深層的原因？

And I guess, even though October, it seems like that was better, but it seems like you may be taking a more conservative approach to November and December if I'm hearing you right. So to what extent is that cautiousness towards the latter months of this year also extrapolated into your 2% to 3% RevPAR guidance for next year?

我想，雖然十月份的情況似乎有所好轉，但如果我理解正確的話，你對十一月和十二月的態度似乎會更加保守。那麼，今年下半年的謹慎態度在多大程度上也反映在您對明年2%至3%的RevPAR成長預期中呢？

It's exactly the right question, I think. The surprise, the disappointment to us in Q3 was purely about U.S. RevPAR performance in September. And it had an impact, obviously, in the Q3 RevPAR number. And it does impact, in a way I'll describe a little bit more fully in a second, our expectations for Q4. By and large, it is not impacting our early guidance or early ranges for 2019.

我覺得這個問題問得非常到位。第三季讓我們感到驚訝和失望的地方完全在於9月美國每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)的表現。顯然，這對第三季的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）產生了影響。而且，從某種程度上說，它確實會影響我們對第四季的預期，我稍後會更詳細地描述這一點。總的來說，這不會影響我們對 2019 年的早期預測或早期預期範圍。

When you look at September RevPAR, let's start with Smith Travel, interestingly, you see luxury performing reasonably well at 1.8%. These are Smith Travel numbers for the month. Not surprising because luxury often has got a bit more skew towards resort hotels than other segments in the market. And when you end up with some holiday performance, for example, you end up with relatively better performance in the leisure space.

當我們查看 9 月份的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 時，我們先來看 Smith Travel，有趣的是，你會發現豪華酒店的表現相當不錯，達到了 1.8%。這是史密斯旅行社本月的統計數據。這並不奇怪，因為與其他市場區隔領域相比，奢侈品市場往往更傾向於度假酒店。例如，當你在假期期間取得一些業績時，你在休閒領域的表現就會相對較好。

Upper-upscale was only 0.3%, so barely better than flat. And all other segments, again, these are Smith Travel numbers, were down 1%. Those are the RevPAR numbers. Our system-wide number in September was down 1% roughly. So it was a disappointing month.

高端市場僅佔 0.3%，比平庸略好。其他所有板塊（同樣是史密斯旅遊的數據）都下降了 1%。這些是每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）數據。9月我們系統整體資料下降了約1%。所以這個月令人失望。

Now to let it all hang out there, our performance was better than -- 2 points worse than what we thought internally heading into September. And that's what gave us cause. And of course, when you see that, you say, "Okay, let's figure out everything that can happen."

現在坦白說，我們的表現比我們9月份內部預想的要好——比預想的差了2個百分點。這就是我們行動的原因。當然，當你看到這種情況時，你會說：“好吧，讓我們弄清楚所有可能發生的情況。”

The most obvious explanations, and we think are still probably the most relevant explanations, are the tough comparisons in the hurricane markets in Houston and Florida and the midweek Jewish holidays that occur in September. So we had both the holiday shifting into September, but because they were midweek, they probably had a more significant impact on business transient travel.

最明顯的解釋，而且我們認為可能仍然是最相關的解釋，是休士頓和佛羅裡達颶風市場的嚴峻對比，以及九月的猶太節日。所以假期都推遲到了九月份，但因為假期是在周中，所以可能對商務旅行產生了更大的影響。

But when you miss by over 2 points, that's a little bit sobering, and so we've done everything we can to tease and test and sweat that data to see if we can figure out what happened. And there is a bit of September's numbers which were cautionary to us. It was a little bit slower transient pickup than we had seen in prior months. And so we went into October with, again, some concern, not overwhelming because of the hurricane and holiday pieces of this, but some concern.

但是，如果失利超過 2 分，那就有點令人沮喪了，所以我們盡一切努力去分析、測試和研究這些數據，看看我們能否弄清楚發生了什麼。九月的一些數據也為我們敲響了警鐘。與前幾個月相比，瞬態響應速度稍慢一些。因此，我們帶著些許擔憂進入了十月，雖然由於颶風和假期等因素，這種擔憂並不強烈，但確實存在一些擔憂。

The best news here is that October was, by and large, reassuring. We don't have that data in enough depth yet to be able to tease it and test it in the way that we've done for September. But the headline RevPAR number, we think, will be sort of back towards the prior trend line.

最好的消息是，十月總體上令人安心。我們目前還沒有足夠深入的數據，無法像9月一樣進行分析和測試。但我們認為，RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）這個主要指標將會逐漸恢復到先前的趨勢線。

There still is, though, enough concern, I suppose, for us that as we head into November and December, which are weaker months of the year, less group business, more dependent on transient, obviously, you get into a sort of quieter part of the year. We want to be thoughtful about that short -- very short-term transient pickup. And our assumptions are, to be sure, more conservative for Q4 than they would have been had we not had the experience we had in September. Probably by about 1 point of RevPAR in Q4.

不過，我想，我們仍然有很多擔憂，因為隨著 11 月和 12 月的到來，這兩個月是一年中較為淡季的月份，團體業務較少，更多地依賴散客，顯然，我們會進入一年中相對平靜的時期。我們希望認真考慮這種短暫的——非常短暫的瞬態增長。可以肯定的是，我們對第四季的假設比如果沒有九月的經驗，我們的假設會更加保守。第四季RevPAR可能下降約1個百分點。

Again, it does not impact our expectations for 2019 in part because we return to stronger, more normal traveling months, in part because when we look in to Q1, we see fairly good group bookings on the books. And all this tells us that we should expect sort of a steady-as-she-goes for the whole year kind of numbers from 2018 as we head into 2019.

再次強調，這不會影響我們對 2019 年的預期，部分原因是我們將恢復到更強勁、更正常的旅行月份，部分原因是當我們展望第一季時，我們看到團體預訂情況相當不錯。所有這些都表明，隨著我們進入 2019 年，我們應該預期 2018 年全年的數據將保持穩定。

So that's a long-winded answer, but I think it's an important question, and it's one that I would say the sky is not falling, notwithstanding the weak September. We do think September was more a industry story than it was a Marriott story. In fact, when we look at our RevPAR index for the months of -- month of September, we held our own, which was very gratifying. And so stay tuned. Let's watch it. We're a bit more cautious simply because September happened, but we're not particularly fearful.

所以，我的回答有點囉嗦，但我認為這是一個重要的問題，儘管九月表現疲軟，但我認為天並沒有塌下來。我們認為九月發生的事情更多的是產業層面的，而不是萬豪酒店集團本身的問題。事實上，當我們查看 9 月的 RevPAR 指數時，我們表現良好，這非常令人滿意。敬請期待。我們一起來看吧。我們現在稍微謹慎了一些，只是因為九月發生的事情，但我們並不特別害怕。

Your next question is from Harry Curtis of Nomura Instinet.

你的下一個問題來自野村證券的哈利柯蒂斯。

I just wanted to follow up on that line of questioning. Year-over-year in November, December, do you find that you're up against some tough comps? I'm wondering if that might be part of the reason for conservatism.

我只是想就這個問題進行後續探討。與往年同期相比，11月和12月你是否覺得面臨一些強大的競爭對手？我懷疑這是否是保守主義的部分原因。

Well, we have tough comps, of course, because the hurricanes in Houston and Florida. Our expectation is that the hurricane comps hurt us by about 1 point year-over-year.

當然，我們面臨嚴峻的比較，因為休士頓和佛羅裡達都遭受了颶風的襲擊。我們預計颶風造成的年比損失將使我們的業績下降約 1 個百分點。

And so while none of us loves putting a kind of 1%-ish number on the table as a guidance for a quarter, which is our expectation for U.S. system-wide, that number based on hurricane comps alone would be about 2 points if it weren't for that.

因此，雖然我們都不喜歡把大約 1% 的數字作為季度業績指引（這是我們對美國系統整體的預期），但如果不考慮颶風的影響，僅基於颶風可比數據，這個數字應該會達到 2 個百分點左右。

And that's not far off of the kind of run rate we have seen. Again, it does include a more conservative assumption about short-term transient pickup than we've had in place for the first 3 quarters of the year. And whether that turns out to be more conservative than needed or not, we'll have to see as the quarter comes to a close.

這與我們看到的運行率相差不遠。同樣，它對短期瞬時回升的假設比我們今年前三個季度所採用的假設更為保守。至於這是否過於保守，我們還要等到本季末才能見分曉。

Okay. Very good. And then similarly, in your sales department conversations with your corporate customers, is there anything that they're seeing with respect to the fourth quarter and next year that would indicate that demand is at risk of softening?

好的。非常好。同樣地，在你們銷售部門與企業客戶的溝通中，他們是否看到任何關於第四季和明年的跡象表明需求有疲軟的風險？

No.

不。

Okay. That's good to hear.

好的。聽到這個消息真好。

Did I give you enough?

我給你的夠嗎？

I think no is a good answer. And just a similar line of thoughts, my last question is, if corporate profits are still expected to grow roughly 10% in 2019 and your occupancy levels are pretty close, if not, at or above historic highs, why not get your property managers to push the rate a bit more? Yes, I'll stop there.

我認為「不」是一個很好的答案。類似地，我的最後一個問題是，如果預計 2019 年企業利潤仍將增長約 10%，而您的入住率也接近甚至超過歷史最高水平，為什麼不讓您的物業經理再提高一下房價呢？是的，我就說到這裡吧。

Yes. I'm entirely with you on that, too, Harry. The -- I think the relative lack in rate, given where we are in occupancy, is obviously something we have talked about in prior quarters. We are trading at essentially historic peaks in occupancy.

是的。哈利，在這點上我也完全同意你的看法。我認為，考慮到我們目前的入住率，房價相對偏低顯然是我們之前幾季討論過的問題。我們的入住率目前基本上處於歷史最高水準。

We would have expected and probably still do expect more rate growth than occupancy growth going forward and are optimistic that we will see some occupancy growth, particularly if we see the economy continue to perform strongly. Having said that, it is not just a question of the instructions we give to the hotels that we manage, but it is a question about the decisions that are made by thousands of franchised hotels in our system who are setting their own pricing. And obviously, we compete in a highly competitive industry.

我們過去預期，現在可能仍然預期，未來房價成長將超過入住率成長，我們樂觀地認為，如果經濟持續強勁成長，我們將看到入住率有所成長。也就是說，這不僅僅是我們向我們管理的酒店下達的指令的問題，而是我們系統中數千家加盟酒店自行定價的問題。顯然，我們身處在一個競爭非常激烈的行業。

And so we've got -- we would love to ignore the way hotels are priced by both independents and some of our competitors, but you can't really do that. And so we are doing the best we can to drive rates. I think we're making some progress in that, but we hope to see more progress in the months ahead.

所以，我們——我們很想忽略獨立酒店和一些競爭對手的定價方式，但實際上你做不到這一點。因此，我們正在盡最大努力來降低利率。我認為我們在這方面取得了一些進展，但我們希望在未來幾個月看到更大的進展。

Your next question is from Joe Greff of JP Morgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Arne, am I wrong in interpreting your North American 3Q results as indicating that maybe you lost a little bit of RevPAR index? I know you're reporting same-store North America, and we tend to look at U.S. STR data, which isn't same-store. Maybe when answering the question, if you could sort of discuss the difference between limited service and then the North American full-service results.

Arne，我這樣理解你的北美第三季業績是否意味著你的RevPAR指數略有下降？我知道你們報告的是北美同店銷售數據，而我們傾向於查看美國STR數據，但STR數據並非同店銷售數據。或許在回答這個問題時，您可以討論一下有限服務和北美全方位服務之間的差異。

Yes. I mean, obviously, you can see that in the -- in our press release. You've got our luxury system-wide numbers at about 3% RevPAR, upper-upscale at about 1.5%, a little bit less, and then the limited service at minus 0.5%. And that is obviously, in a way, looking at the relative strength of the segments.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，你可以從我們的新聞稿中看到這一點。我們豪華飯店的RevPAR約為3%，中高檔飯店約為1.5%，略低一些，而有限服務飯店的RevPAR為-0.5%。從某種意義上說，這顯然是在考察各個細分市場的相對實力。

I think part of that is also a function of the kind of customers that essentially are most predominant in those hotels. So the limited-service hotels are often, particularly during the week, dependent on the individual business traveler. The upper-upscale hotels are going to be dependent on that traveler but also on group. And the luxury hotels, as I mentioned before, are going to have a bit of a skew towards resort, and therefore, are going to be a little bit more leisure-dependent.

我認為這部分原因也與這些飯店的主要顧客群有關。因此，尤其是在工作日，有限服務型飯店往往依賴單一商務旅客。高檔飯店的客流量不僅取決於單一旅客，還取決於旅行團。正如我之前提到的，豪華酒店會更偏向度假性質，因此會更依賴休閒娛樂。

And in a sense, you can look at that stack and see the relative strength during the quarter. And that is that leisure probably strongest group next and the business -- individual business transient traveler next. And that plays through reasonably well.

從某種意義上說，你可以觀察這個股票組合，看看它在本季的相對強度。休閒旅客可能是第二大群體，其次是商務旅客－個人商務旅客和短期旅客。而且效果還不錯。

Now vis-à-vis Smith Travel, don't forget we've got different geographic areas of concentration compared to the industry. Because of our 91-year history in Washington, we are very strong in Washington. If you look at the Smith Travel RevPAR numbers by city, you'll see that Washington was the weakest big market out there for a mix of reasons. We're -- obviously, today is a midterm election day. In the months before a midterm election, you got a lot of politicians who are out on the hustings, and there's not that much happening in Washington that drives business.

至於史密斯旅行社，別忘了我們與業內其他公司相比，業務重點區域有所不同。由於我們在華盛頓擁有91年的歷史，我們在華盛頓實力非常強大。如果你查看史密斯旅遊公司按城市劃分的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 數據，你會發現，由於多種原因，華盛頓是其中最疲軟的大市場。很顯然，今天是中期選舉日。在中期選舉前的幾個月裡，許多政治人物都在四處奔走拉票，而華盛頓並沒有發生太多能推動商業發展的事情。

We also had, during Q3, a hurricane warning that included Washington, D.C. And an emergency, I think, was called here even though the hurricane never showed up, but it was called with enough advance warning that it had an impact on business. And in Houston, we've got strong select-service distribution, and that's a tough year-over-year comparison.

第三季度，我們也收到了包括華盛頓特區在內的颶風警報。我認為，儘管颶風最終沒有出現，但這裡還是宣布進入緊急狀態，因為提前發出的警報足以對業務造成影響。在休士頓，我們的精選服務分銷管道非常強大，因此與去年同期相比，情況比較艱難。

It's a long-winded way of getting to your question, which is did we lose share in the quarter. Our share in the quarter -- actually, I mentioned September. September, we held our own. And in the quarter, we held our own. So this is not fundamentally about Marriott lagging the market. This is fundamentally about how the market performed by geography and by segment in both September and in the quarter.

繞了這麼大彎子，其實就是想問你的問題：我們這季市佔率有沒有下降？我們在季度中的份額——實際上，我指的是九月。九月份，我們表現尚可。本季度，我們表現尚可。所以，這從根本上來說並不是萬豪酒店落後於市場。這主要關係到市場在9月份和本季按地域和細分市場劃分的表現。

Got it. And I don't know if you gave any specifics about October in the U.S. other than you're saying it was better than September. But when we look at your 4Q 1% U.S. RevPAR growth guidance, does that assume then the next 2 months of this quarter are basically flat?

知道了。我不知道你除了說十月比九月好之外，有沒有具體說明美國十月的情況。但是，當我們查看您給出的第四季度美國每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長 1% 的預期時，這是否意味著本季度接下來的兩個月基本持平？

I will say this, October will be the strongest month of the quarter based on our present expectations. And that's a bit about -- it's a more normal travel time. It's a more normal group business time. And to some extent, it -- we knew it would rebound from September because some of the things that happened in September worked to the benefit of October.

我可以這樣說，根據我們目前的預期，10 月將是本季表現最好的一個月。差不多就是這樣──這才是比較正常的旅行時間。這是比較正常的團隊業務時間。在某種程度上，我們知道它會從九月開始反彈，因為九月發生的一些事情對十月有利。

So October, we think, will be stronger than November and December. Obviously, we don't have, again, really final numbers yet for October. We have some preliminary views, but it's not -- we don't have final enough numbers to hang them out for you this morning.

因此，我們認為十月份的銷售額將高於十一月和十二月。顯然，我們目前還沒有10月的最終數據。我們有一些初步的看法，但是——我們還沒有足夠的最終數據，所以今天早上無法向大家公佈。

Your next question is from Anthony Powell of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼·鮑威爾。

Slower transient demand during holidays seemed to be a consistent trend this year. Is there anything Marriott can do from a revenue management or a marketing standpoint to help generate some better demand during these holiday periods?

今年假日期間短期需求放緩似乎是一個持續的趨勢。從收益管理或行銷的角度來看，萬豪酒店可以採取哪些措施來幫助提高假日期間的需求？

Well, we -- what we've talked about internally is whether or not we could lobby the government to force that all holidays happen on weekends. Obviously, we can't do that. But we have had kind of a funny year, which is July 4 on a Wednesday, if I remember right, and the Jewish holiday is midweek.

嗯，我們內部討論的是，我們是否可以遊說政府強制所有假日都安排在週末。顯然，我們不能那樣做。但我們今年過得有點奇怪，如果我沒記錯的話，7 月 4 日是星期三，而猶太節日又是周中。

And it's no surprise that when it's right in the middle of the week, you end up with a temptation, particularly around July 4 time, to maybe take weekends on both sides but maybe not to do any business travel during that entire week. I think with the Jewish holidays, it's probably the impact on business travel, not so much people taking 10-day vacations.

毫不奇怪，當假期恰好在周中時，尤其是在 7 月 4 日前後，人們很容易產生這樣的衝動：可能在假期前後都利用周末，但可能在整個假期期間都不進行任何商務旅行。我認為猶太節日的影響可能更多地體現在商務旅行上，而不是人們休10天假。

We are doing what we can do around leisure promotion, where there are real leisure opportunities. But in some markets, I won't pick on any particular city, but it won't surprise you that in some suburban markets, you're not going to find a lot of leisure to replace the business travel that has disappeared. And you're going to end up with -- you're going to do the best you can, obviously, but you end up with lower occupancy, and that has some impact on rate, too.

我們正在盡我們所能地推廣休閒活動，尤其是在那些真正有休閒機會的地方。但在某些市場，我不會點名任何特定的城市，但你不會感到驚訝的是，在一些郊區市場，你找不到很多休閒活動來取代已經消失的商務旅行。最終的結果當然是──你會盡力做到最好，但入住率會降低，這也會對房價產生一定影響。

Got it. And on the -- on buybacks and leverage, does the increase in interest rates and some volatility around RevPAR growth change your approach to buybacks as you get -- look to the next year? Or is it steady as you go?

知道了。關於股票回購和槓桿，利率上升以及每間可供出租客房收入成長的波動是否會改變您展望明年時的股票回購策略？還是穩步前進？

Steady as she goes. Just remember one thing, and that is that you got to take into consideration asset recycling. And as you know, this year, we've had over $600 million of assets recycled. And you can net that against the purchase of the Sheraton Grand Phoenix. But there is, call it, a net, roughly $400 million, that we would -- going into the year for '19, we would not put in any forecast for the numbers.

她穩步前進。記住一點，那就是你必須考慮資產回收。如你所知，今年我們已經回收了超過 6 億美元的資產。您可以將這筆錢用於抵扣購買鳳凰城喜來登大酒店的款項。但可以稱之為淨收入，大約是 4 億美元，我們——進入 2019 年，我們不會對數字做出任何預測。

But otherwise, I would definitely say steady as she goes. We talked on our last call about how in our conversations with the rating agencies, as we look at the combined business models, both as we've moved away from owning the timeshare business as well as with the combination with Starwood, that we've got a stronger, more sustainable, more cash-rich operating model.

但除此之外，我肯定會說她會穩定前進。我們在上次通話中談到，在與評級機構的對話中，當我們審視合併後的商業模式時，無論是我們不再擁有分時度假業務，還是與喜達屋合併，我們都擁有了更強大、更可持續、現金更充裕的營運模式。

And with the discussions with the rating agencies, talked about broadening our leverage target range. So instead of 3 to 3.25, it's now 3 to 3.5. So I would expect from that standpoint relative to maybe a year ago that we may dance a little bit higher within that range, but it will all still be comfortably in the range that we discussed.

在與評級機構的討論中，我們談到了擴大槓桿目標範圍。所以，原本是 3 到 3.25，現在變成了 3 到 3.5。因此，從這個角度來看，與一年前相比，我們可能會在這個範圍內略微上揚一些，但仍然會保持在我們討論的範圍內。

And again, with the same sort of process that it is before, which is to, first, make sure that we invest in the growth of our business and do that with great value-added projects, but then with the remainder, return it to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchase.

同樣，我們採用與先前相同的流程，首先確保投資於業務成長，並透過高附加價值項目來實現這一目標，然後將剩餘部分透過分紅和股票回購相結合的方式返還給股東。

Your next question is from Patrick Scholes of SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

Are you seeing any changes to Chinese demand and also the -- your Chinese -- your pipeline in China from trade wars?

貿易戰是否對中國需求以及您在中國的管道造成了任何影響？

Not yet is the answer. Obviously, it's a question we have been talking about and watching carefully with our Asia team over the last number of months. Obviously, the GDP numbers that China have posted -- has posted are modestly lower than what we saw in prior quarters. And you would expect, all other things being equal, to see that have some impact on hotel demand.

答案是：尚未到來。顯然，在過去的幾個月裡，我們一直在和亞洲團隊討論並密切關注這個問題。顯然，中國公佈的GDP數據略低於前幾季的數據。在其他條件相同的情況下，人們會預期這會對飯店需求產生一定影響。

But the numbers for Q3 were really very strong in China. Obviously, we had some impact from the hurricane that really bore down on Hong Kong most centrally. But what we're seeing is a good, steady performance both in terms of intake on new deals, on the development pipeline, openings as well as performance of existing hotels.

但中國市場第三季的數據確實非常強勁。顯然，颶風對香港中心地帶造成了一定的影響。但我們看到的是，無論是新交易的達成、開發項目儲備、新開業酒店或現有酒店的業績，都表現良好且穩定。

We'll obviously watch this into next year. We talked about mid-single-digit RevPAR expectations for next year. I don't -- we don't want to get too granular yet because the budgets haven't been done. But I think our expectation is 1 point or so lower maybe in RevPAR, 1 point, 1.5 points lower than we're likely to experience in 2018. But still in absolute terms, a good year-over-year growth and strong optimism in China.

我們顯然會持續關注此事直至明年。我們討論了明年每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）預計為個位數中段的預期。我不想——我們現在還不想討論得太細緻，因為預算還沒完成。但我認為，我們預計 2018 年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 可能會比 2018 年低 1 個百分點左右，1 個百分點到 1.5 個百分點。但從絕對值來看，中國經濟仍實現了良好的年成長，市場情緒也十分樂觀。

Your next question is from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林。

Maybe a follow-up to one of Anthony's questions earlier. I guess what would be the run rate free cash flow generation this year, excluding some of the onetime puts and takes? And are there any kind of other onetime items to think about for next year that may dictate how much free cash flow you will generate relative to EBITDA?

或許可以作為對安東尼之前某個問題的後續。我想問一下，如果排除一些一次性的買賣交易，今年的自由現金流年化成長率是多少？明年是否還有其他一次性項目需要考慮，這些項目可能會影響您相對於 EBITDA 產生的自由現金流？

Yes. Well, the one I mentioned before, Stephen, is kind of the most obvious one, which is the asset recycling less what we did on the Phoenix Sheraton. And I think that's really the main one. The one -- the other one that we'll just continue to keep in mind is that, as you know, we have committed to spend some of the Avendra dollars that we had in a gain on sale, which we've taken the benefit of from our cash position. And obviously, as we look forward, we would continue to expect to invest some of that in our hotel system. I think we gave guidance this year that expected something like maybe $100 million of Avendra investing this year, which is essentially a use of cash within the cash flow. And I would expect something somewhat similar to that in that ballpark next year. But otherwise, cash taxes, I would expect that this year, we had a meaningfully higher cash tax bill because of the Avendra gain, which -- so the cash was received at the end of '17, and we had higher cash uses for that because of that, and that will obviously be done in '19. So you will not have that carry forward in '19. And again, a decent run rate to use for taxes. Apart from any other oddballs, we'll be the roughly 22% that we've talked about before. We're in the process of doing our budget. So from a standpoint of investment spending, we don't have a range yet for you. But we obviously, when we get to the beginning of the year, we will.

是的。嗯，史蒂芬，我之前提到的那個例子是最顯而易見的，那就是資產回收利用，就像我們在鳳凰城喜來登酒店所做的那樣。我認為這才是最主要的。還有一點——我們將繼續牢記在心的是，正如您所知，我們已經承諾將出售 Avendra 所得的部分資金用於投資，而我們已經利用了我們的現金儲備。顯然，展望未來，我們將繼續把其中一部分資金投資於我們的酒店系統。我認為我們今年給出的指導意見是，預計 Avendra 今年可能會有大約 1 億美元的投資，這本質上是現金流中的現金使用。我預計明年在這個球場上也會出現類似的情況。但就現金稅而言，我預計今年我們的現金稅單會明顯更高，因為 Avendra 的收益——這筆現金是在 2017 年底收到的，因此我們有了更高的現金使用額，這顯然會在 2019 年完成。所以你2019年將無法結轉這筆費用。而且，這也是一個可以用來繳稅的合理運行率。除了其他一些特例之外，我們大概會佔到之前提到的 22% 左右。我們正在編制預算。因此，從投資支出的角度來看，我們目前還沒有一個範圍可以供您參考。但很顯然，到了年初，我們就會這麼做。

And I guess one unrelated follow-up. You mentioned, I think in the remarks, a decline in OTA bookings and the strength of direct bookings in North America. But I believe you mentioned that overall, you were still flat. Can you just elaborate on what you're seeing in the international markets that may make the effectiveness of some of your direct booking efforts more or less effective?

我想還有一個無關的後續問題。我想你在演講中提到了OTA預訂量的下降以及北美地區直接預訂量的強勁增長。但我相信你提到過，整體而言，你們的表現仍然平平。您能否詳細說明您在國際市場上觀察到的哪些因素可能會影響您某些直接預訂工作的有效性？

Yes. I mean it's a big world out there, obviously. And the OTAs from an American lens, we think, really of Expedia and Booking, you look around the world and you see additional OTAs that have sometimes business models that are quite similar to those 2 and sometimes they're different but a regional focus and regional strength, which is different. And I don't know that I've got any deep insights on your question. There are parts of the world which are more leisure-dependent. That's just where OTAs are probably the strongest for obvious reasons. And so look at a market like Thailand, for example, or Indonesia with Bali. These are markets in which OTAs, whether they'd be Asian-based or global OTAs, are going to tend to deliver business, which is more incremental because it is more leisure than elsewhere. I think to some extent, there's probably also a difference in the familiarity of our brand names and distribution. Obviously, we've been in the hotel business in the United States the longest with the deepest distribution, with really high penetration of our loyalty programs. All of those give us tools to use here in terms of yielding away from these platforms, expensive platforms on high occupancy with midweek nights, which are probably a bit more powerful than they would be in the rest of the world, where our presence has been relatively shorter and our market share is probably a little bit lower. Those would be the things that come to mind, but I don't think they're dramatically different from place to place.

是的。我的意思是，外面的世界很大，這是顯而易見的。從美國的角度來看，我們認為，真正的OTA（線上旅行社）指的是Expedia和Booking。放眼全球，你會發現其他OTA的商業模式有時與這兩家非常相似，有時則有所不同，但它們都具有區域性重點和區域優勢，這是不同的。我不知道我是否對你的問題有什麼深刻的見解。世界上有些地區的人們更依賴休閒娛樂。顯而易見，OTA（線上旅行社）在這一點上可能最為強大。因此，不妨看看像泰國這樣的市場，或是像印尼的峇裡島這樣的市場。在這些市場中，無論是亞洲本土的線上旅行社還是全球性的線上旅行社，都將傾向於帶來業務成長，而且由於這些市場更偏向休閒旅遊，因此業務成長幅度更大。我認為在某種程度上，我們的品牌名稱和分銷管道的知名度可能也存在差異。顯然，我們在美國酒店業經營時間最長，分銷管道最廣，忠誠度計畫的滲透率也非常高。所有這些都為我們提供了工具，讓我們能夠擺脫這些平台，這些平台價格昂貴、入住率高，尤其是在周中晚上。這些平台可能比在世界其他地方更有影響力，因為我們在世界其他地方的業務相對較短，市場份額也可能略低一些。我能想到的就是這些，但我認為它們在不同地方之間並沒有太大區別。

Your next question is from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

Arne, just following up on the OTA comment from just a moment ago. I think in the prepared remarks, you also called out that on the distribution cost front, you were -- you saw maybe some changes in mix that could have actually impacted RevPAR growth. Could you elaborate on those comments a little bit? I think you said a few tenths on RevPAR. Was that for the quarter or for the year? And just maybe, again, maybe elaborate a little bit on what exactly the initiative is and what may be having that impact.

Arne，我只是想補充剛才關於OTA的評論。我認為在準備好的發言稿中，您也提到了分銷成本方面，您看到了一些產品組合的變化，這些變化實際上可能影響了每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的增長。您能否再詳細解釋一下這些評論？我想你之前說過RevPAR會提高零點幾個百分點。是季度數據還是年度數據？或許，可以再詳細闡述這項舉措的具體內容以及可能產生影響的因素。

Yes. We -- I mean we called out 2 initiatives in the prepared remarks. One is our commission reduction for group intermediaries, which is essentially a United States issue. And the second was our use of a new revenue management platform that really allows us to factor in cost of business as we're making decisions about what business to take. And that piece has really caused us to meaningfully reduce the midweek contribution that we're taking from OTAs because we are using our revenue management system basically to say we can fill our hotel with business, which is less expensive to us. And it is in the latter context that we said, "Yes, it could be a couple of tenths maybe of RevPAR impact from yielding that business." We think even though we might be giving up a little bit on the top line, we're, if anything, growing the bottom line because we are replacing some of the business we would have taken with lower-cost business. And obviously, if you do that enough, you can afford to give up certainly a modest amount of net business that might have come to us if we hadn't used that revenue management tool. And so that's maybe a couple of tenths in the quarter, is what we meant to communicate. I'm not sure if we were clear in the time frame in that paragraph of the remarks. Still clearly to us, it's the right call. And again, I don't -- we're not offering that as explanation for sort of our macro numbers in the quarter. In the quarter, we held our own in RevPAR index, notwithstanding the merger of these loyalty programs and the noise around it, notwithstanding what we've done with group intermediaries, notwithstanding the yielding we're doing with the OTAs. And we're actually very gratified that we continue to post good index numbers even with lots of change that we are very deliberately pursuing across the company.

是的。我們——我的意思是，我們在準備好的演講稿中提到了兩項倡議。一是降低團體中介的佣金，本質上是美國問題。第二點是我們使用了一個新的收入管理平台，真正讓我們能夠在決定承接哪些業務時將業務成本納入考量。正是這一點促使我們大幅減少了從線上旅行社獲得的周中收入，因為我們基本上使用收益管理系統來表明我們可以讓飯店客滿，這對我們來說成本更低。正是在後一種情況下，我們才說：「是的，放棄這部分業務可能會對每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）產生零點幾個百分點的影響。」我們認為，即使營收可能會略有下降，但由於我們用成本更低的業務替代了部分原本會接手的業務，因此我們的利潤反而增加了。顯然，如果你這樣做足夠多，你完全可以承受放棄一定數量的淨業務，如果我們沒有使用收入管理工具，這些業務可能會轉移到我們這裡。所以，這大概佔本季零點幾個百分點，這就是我們想表達的意思。我不確定我們是否在那段發言中明確了時間範圍。我們仍然認為，這是正確的決定。再次聲明，我們不會——我們不會用這個來解釋本季的宏觀經濟數據。本季度，儘管這些忠誠度計劃合併以及圍繞合併的種種喧囂，儘管我們與集團中介機構開展了合作，儘管我們與在線旅行社開展了合作，但我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 指數仍然保持穩定。事實上，我們非常欣慰地看到，即使公司內部正在進行許多有意識的變革，我們仍然能夠取得良好的指數成績。

Great. And as my follow-up, maybe just to touch on the kind of unit growth side as you look out to 2019 and beyond. This is not to take anything away from all of the initiatives that you've got and how much work everybody has done in the integration. But I'm curious, in the past, you have actually done some smaller kind of tuck-in brand M&A here and there. Is that something that's still on the radar screen for you? And how do you kind of think about that as you think about gross unit growth and capital allocation?

偉大的。最後，我想就 2019 年及以後的單位增長情況談談我的看法。這並非要否定你們所有的舉措以及大家在整合過程中所做的努力。但我很好奇，過去你們是否也進行過一些較小的品牌併購？你還在關注這件事嗎？那麼，在考慮單位總成長和資本配置時，您是如何看待這個問題的呢？

Yes. No, we will continue to look at whatever is available in the M&A side. Obviously, it's hard to predict whether anything would happen, and we do have our hands full in many respects. But we believe that it's an industry we love, and we believe we're just getting started.

是的。不，我們會繼續關注併購方面的一切機會。顯然，很難預測是否會發生什麼事，而且我們在許多方面都面臨著許多挑戰。但我們相信，這是我們熱愛的行業，我們相信，我們才剛起步。

Your next question is from Chad Beynon of Macquarie.

下一個問題來自麥格理集團的查德·貝農。

One of the main motives of your acquisition of Starwood was, I believe, around kind of their lifestyle brands, which, from a room standpoint, came with, I think, Westin, the biggest one and then W and some smaller ones. And now it seems like lifestyle demand has moved more towards like wellness or wellness features. So do you think you have the right properties for these guests, particularly your Platinum members with respect to like wellness and kind of the new lifestyle image?

我認為，您收購喜達屋的主要動機之一是圍繞其生活方式品牌，從客房的角度來看，其中包括最大的威斯汀酒店，然後是 W 酒店和一些規模較小的酒店。現在看來，人們對生活方式的需求似乎更轉向了與健康或健康相關的功能。那麼，您認為您擁有的房產是否適合這些客人，特別是您的白金會員，尤其是在健康和新型生活方式形象方面？

Well, I mean, it's a good question. I think it's a really interesting place. Obviously, lifestyle and luxury and resort, all of, we would say, are important growth areas for us and important features for us to have in our loyalty portfolio. So I don't think we want to say it's only about lifestyle. But we do think that one of the things that motivates regular business travelers who are the folks for whom the loyalty program is most relevant, is where can I go when I take my free vacation if I've earned enough points to get a free vacation? And they are interested in resorts. They're interested in luxury. They're interested in lifestyle. They're interested in breadth of distribution, all of those sorts of things. And by acquiring Starwood, we think we meaningfully increased our attractiveness in all of those places. And so I think that, that reason for pursuing the deal is very much alive and is working very strong. Lifestyle includes -- it means different things to different people. You've just suggested one thing, which is maybe a wellness piece of it. I actually think the Westin brand itself, I'd probably include Element not far behind, but those 2 are, in our view, the most meaningful broadly-distributed brands that have got a lifestyle focus. And so I think, in fact, we are quite strong in that space. But I think there are other aspects of lifestyle too, which have to do with maybe you'd look at W and say the -- what, the liveliness of a bar and club and restaurant scene is something that is very strong in that brand and I think is still very attractive to many lifestyle travelers. So while I think the portfolio is great, I think we believe we're, in many respects, leading in the lifestyle and luxury and resort space and believe that's one of the strengths of our loyalty program. We're certainly not satisfied and we'll continue to seek more distribution in those spaces.

嗯，這確實是個好問題。我覺得那是個很有趣的地方。顯然，生活方式、奢侈品和度假村，我們認為這些都是我們重要的成長領域，也是我們忠誠度組合中重要的組成部分。所以我覺得我們不應該說這只是關乎生活方式。但我們認為，對於經常出差的商務旅客（他們才是忠誠度計畫最相關的人群）來說，激勵他們參與的因素之一是：如果我累積了足夠的積分來獲得免費假期，那麼我該去哪裡度假呢？他們對度假村很有興趣。他們對奢侈品感興趣。他們對生活方式感興趣。他們對分銷範圍的廣度以及諸如此類的事情都感興趣。我們認為，透過收購喜達屋，我們在所有這些地方的吸引力都得到了顯著提升。所以我認為，促成這筆交易的這個理由依然存在，而且非常有力。生活方式包含很多面向──對不同的人來說意義也不同。你剛才提出的這一點，或許與健康有關。實際上，我認為威斯汀品牌本身就非常出色，Element 也緊隨其後，但我們認為，這兩個品牌是最具意義、分佈最廣且注重生活方式的品牌。所以我覺得，實際上，我們在這領域相當強大。但我認為生活方式還有其他方面，例如你可能會看看 W 酒店，然後說——酒吧、俱樂部和餐廳的活力是該品牌非常強大的特色，我認為這對許多追求生活方式的旅行者仍然非常有吸引力。所以，雖然我認為我們的產品組合很棒，但我們相信，在很多方面，我們在生活方式、奢侈品和度假村領域處於領先地位，並相信這是我們忠誠度計劃的優勢之一。我們當然不會就此滿足，我們將繼續尋求在這些領域獲得更多分銷管道。

Okay. And then unrelated. I don't think there were many companies that announced retirement savings match plans like you guys did at the beginning of the year. And I'm wondering if you're seeing, I guess, lower attrition because of the program, anything that could be quantified going forward in terms of either fewer training fees or better net promoter scores. I know it's early, but just anything that you're seeing as a result of that initiative.

好的。然後是一些無關的事情。我認為年初的時候，像你們這樣宣布退休儲蓄匹配計劃的公司並不多。我想知道，由於該計劃，您是否看到了較低的流失率，以及未來是否有任何可以量化的結果，例如更少的培訓費用或更高的淨推薦值。我知道現在還為時過早，但只是想說說你目前看到的這項舉措所帶來的任何成果。

I love you asking that question. Thank you for that. The -- we do a couple of things. One -- regularly. I mean every year, we are surveying our associates around the world to try and understand how they feel about their work. And our associate satisfaction is at an all-time high, up from last year. We're asking a lot of our people because there's a lot of extra work to pull these 2 companies together. But I think our people around the world are very motivated to be part of the team. I think they're proud to be working for Marriott, and I think they feel good about their careers, and that comes through in that survey loud and clear. The second thing we look at, and it gets more focused on the supplemental $1,000 401(k) match that we did in the United States, is we look at participation among our associates in our retirement plans. And that number is about 80% of all eligible associates, which is an extraordinarily high number and tells you that they -- there's always been good participation. It has gone up. I think it's gone up in substantial part because of what we did with the supplemental 401(k) match. And so notwithstanding the strike noise we've got in a few markets, we think actually the overwhelming bit of data that we've got about our relationship with our people around the world is very encouraging.

我喜歡你問這個問題。謝謝。我們做兩件事。一——定期。我的意思是，我們每年都會對世界各地的員工進行調查，以了解他們對工作的感受。我們的員工滿意度也達到了歷史新高，比去年有所提升。我們對員工的要求很高，因為要把這兩家公司整合起來，需要做很多額外的工作。但我認為我們世界各地的人們都非常有動力成為團隊的一份子。我認為他們為能在萬豪酒店工作而感到自豪，而且他們對自己的職業生涯感到滿意，這一點在調查中體現得非常清楚。我們關注的第二件事，也是更專注於我們在美國提供的 1000 美元 401(k) 補充匹配計劃的，是關注我們的員工參與我們退休計劃的情況。這個數字約佔所有符合資格的員工的 80%，這是一個非常高的數字，說明他們的參與度一直都很高。價格上漲了。我認為它大幅上漲很大程度上是因為我們對補充 401(k) 匹配所做的工作。因此，儘管我們在一些市場遇到了罷工的干擾，但我們認為，我們目前掌握的關於我們與世界各地員工關係的絕大多數數據都非常令人鼓舞。

Your next question is from Michael Bellisario with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Michael Bellisario。

Just one more on the merger integration front. Want to focus not on the consumer side but more kind of what are you hearing and seeing from the corporate accounts and then the group and travel planners with respect to their views of the merger and maybe any concerns they're having about it and how that may be impacting their booking decisions.

關於併購整合方面，還有一件事需要說明。我不想只專注於消費者方面，而是想了解企業客戶、團體和旅遊規劃人員對此次合併的看法，以及他們可能存在的任何擔憂，以及這些擔憂可能會如何影響他們的預訂決策。

Yes. I mean, it's a big community out there, and so it's hardly monolithic in its voice. But we have regular dialogue with our big corporate customers as it relates to both group and their transient travelers. We have regular sessions with group planners. Sometimes, those are folks in intermediary platforms. And often, those are folks internally at corporate or association customers. I think overwhelmingly, the response has been not just positive but enthusiastically positive. They appreciate the breadth of choice. They appreciate the execution that we're bringing to the portfolio of both group boxes of which we are, far and away, the biggest in the industry. And I think we're hearing from our association and corporate group customers that they love the breadth of choice that we offer within our portfolio. And similarly, I think we hear from the business transient traveler that they like very much the breadth of choice that we're offering. And so when we see our share of the total travel book of some of our biggest corporate clients, we see that share generally growing, and the relationship's generally very robust.

是的。我的意思是，這是一個龐大的群體，所以它的聲音並不統一。但我們會定期與大型企業客戶就團體旅客和散客旅客的相關事宜進行溝通。我們定期與團體策劃人員舉行會議。有時，這些人是中介平台上的人。而且通常情況下，這些人是企業或協會客戶內部的人員。我認為絕大多數人的反應不僅是正面的，而且是熱情洋溢的正面。他們很欣賞選擇之多。他們很欣賞我們為團體套餐產品組合帶來的執行力，而我們在團體套餐領域遙遙領先於業內其他公司。我認為我們從協會和企業集團客戶那裡了解到，他們非常喜歡我們產品組合中提供的廣泛選擇。同樣地，我認為我們從商務旅行旅客那裡也聽到了他們非常喜歡我們提供的廣泛選擇。因此，當我們看到我們在一些最大的企業客戶的總差旅預訂中所佔的份額時，我們發現該份額總體上在增長，而且雙方的關係總體上非常穩固。

Your next question is from Kevin Kopelman of Cowen and Company.

下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Kevin Kopelman。

So you mentioned you're seeing -- just a question on loyalty. You mentioned you're seeing uptick on direct online bookings since the unification. Can you give us any sense of where you are on direct online as a percentage of total post-unification, how you see that trending over the next year?

所以你提到你正在考慮——只是一個關於忠誠度的問題。您提到自合併以來，您發現直接在線預訂量有所增加。您能否大致說明一下，統一後，您目前線上用戶佔總用戶數的百分比是多少？您認為未來一年這數字會如何改變？

Yes. We will continue to see direct digital grow in the next year for certain. I should be careful about saying the words for certain ever. But we have a number of things happening that include a continued organic shift towards all things digital, and so that's a tailwind which should continue to help us. I think our direct digital, don't hold me to the precise number, but is nearing 30% of our total business, which is coming in through our direct digital channels, which is good, healthy year-over-year growth.

是的。可以肯定的是，明年直接數位行銷將繼續成長。我以後應該謹慎說出那些肯定的話。但我們正在經歷一系列變革，其中包括持續向數位轉型，這將是一股順風，應該會繼續幫助我們。我認為我們的直接數位業務（雖然我無法給出確切數字，但已接近我們總業務的 30%）是透過我們的直接數位管道實現的，這是一個良好且健康的同比增長。

Okay. And just to follow up on that and to follow up on your previous comments on OTAs and the mix. Can you talk about how you see OTAs trending in the fourth quarter, given it's a more transient-heavy quarter? And any update you can give us on your new contract negotiations with the large U.S. OTA?

好的。最後，我想就您先前關於OTA和混合模式的評論做個後續說明。鑑於第四季度是流動性較強的季度，您能否談談您對OTA在第四季度的發展趨勢有何看法？您能否向我們透露與美國大型線上電視營運商 (OTA) 的新合約談判的最新進展？

I can't give you any particular insight into the fourth quarter. I maybe should know that, but you've stumped me on this, and we'll have to wait and see how the fourth quarter comes in. Maybe you can work on Laura Paugh and see whether she has any of this later. We are in negotiations with Expedia. Our contract with Expedia expires, I think, November 18. Other than to say those 2 things, there's nothing we can report.

我無法提供關於第四季度的具體見解。我或許應該知道這一點，但你難倒我了，我們只能拭目以待第四季的狀況了。或許你可以和蘿拉·帕夫談談，看看她以後是否也有這些能力。我們正在與 Expedia 進行談判。我想，我們與 Expedia 的合約將於 11 月 18 日到期。除了這兩件事之外，我們沒有什麼可以報道的。

Your comment on the overall share of OTAs, I think generally, you've seen that their share of overall room nights on the OTAs has gone up about 1% a year over the last several years. And I think the interesting comment that Arne talked about is that in Q3, that share remained flat year-over-year worldwide. So obviously, the work that we're doing in revenue management, we're hopeful that this is helping to encourage our -- all the work we're doing on loyalty, et cetera, is encouraging our consumers to book direct.

關於您提到的OTA整體份額，我認為總體而言，您已經看到，在過去幾年裡，OTA在整體客房夜數中所佔的份額每年增長約1%。我認為 Arne 提到的有趣之處在於，第三季全球市佔率與去年同期相比保持不變。顯然，我們在收益管理方面所做的工作，我們希望能夠幫助鼓勵我們——我們在忠誠度等方面所做的所有工作，都在鼓勵我們的消費者直接預訂。

Your next question is from Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research.

你的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的文斯·西皮爾。

I had a big picture question on North America. It seems like 2% has kind of been the number for a few years now. And your best guess, the midpoint of next year's range is also 2%. So just curious, there's been narratives of acceleration and deceleration along the way. What do you think you've actually seen in terms of the core trend in the last few years? And then what would it take to get to the upper end of your 1 to 3 North America next year? What are the pieces that would have to fall in place to actually see domestic accelerate?

我有一個關於北美的大局性問題。似乎這幾年2%的比例一直居高不下。你最好的猜測是，明年價格區間的中點也是 2%。我只是好奇，一路走來，既有加速也有減速的說法。你認為在過去幾年裡，核心趨勢方面實際呈現哪些特質？那麼，明年要達到北美地區前 1 至前 3 名的目標需要做些什麼呢？要真正實現國內經濟加速成長，需要哪些條件到位？

Yes. I mean it's a good question. That's why we continue to use this phrase "steady as she goes." When you look at all of '17, and we've now -- we've got 3 quarters of the books -- 3 quarters of 2018 in the books and 1 quarter which we've talked about in terms of guidance, there's been pretty little variation over those 8 quarters. I think to be fair, if we look at each of those quarters and adjust out holidays and hurricane comps and all those sorts of things, we were in the high 1s, 1.6, 1.7, 1.8 in the first 3 quarters of last year. I think we crested over 2 in the fourth quarter of last year and the first couple of quarters of this year. And it looks like implicit now in a true apples-to-apples comparison, it's probably just a hair under 2 in Q3 and what's implicit in Q4. And so over 8 quarters, maybe you see the variation of 3/10 or 4/10. But really, that's not very much over an 8-quarter period of time. And you're right, our 2019 sort of view at the moment is kind of for more of the same, a midpoint number that feels pretty much like what we've seen over the last 8 quarters. What will get it better? I mean, obviously, the better GDP does, the better we'll be. That is still the right, single correlating measure to look at. I also think we'll see a little bit less supply growth next year. That could be helpful. We could see, even within the supply growth, some shifting in what markets it shows up in. I suspect we'll see supply growth weaken a bit more in New York than we do in some other markets. And so that could be helpful for New York numbers. And maybe, to some extent, New York is an important market for the industry and for Marriott, so that could be a little bit helpful. I think when we look at the Marriott story as opposed to the industry story, we are really optimistic about the single loyalty program and the way that, that can drive us and the sort of fully stabilized one company that we'll be running -- managing as we get into 2019. So those things should be helpful to us as well.

是的。我的意思是，這確實是個好問題。這就是為什麼我們一直使用“穩步前進”這個短語。回顧2017年全年，以及我們現在已經完成了四分之三的帳目——2018年三個季度的帳目，還有我們之前在業績指引中提到的一個季度，這八個季度以來的波動幅度非常小。我認為公平地說，如果我們看一下每個季度，並剔除假日、颶風等因素，那麼去年前三個季度我們的業績都在 1%、1.6%、1.7%、1.8% 左右。我認為我們在去年第四季和今年前兩個季度都超過了2。現在看來，如果進行真正的公平比較，第三季可能略低於 2，而第四季則略低於 2。因此，在 8 個季度中，你可能會看到 3/10 或 4/10 的變化。但實際上，從八個季度的時間跨度來看，這並不算多。你說得對，我們目前對 2019 年的看法是，情況將與過去 8 個季度基本上相同，中點數字感覺與我們過去 8 個季度看到的情況非常相似。怎樣才能改善這種情況？我的意思是，很顯然，GDP成長越好，我們就越好。這仍然是目前唯一值得關注的相關指標。我認為明年供應成長速度也會略為放緩。那或許會有幫助。即使在供應成長的情況下，我們也可以看到產品出現的市場發生了一些變化。我估計紐約的供應成長放緩的幅度會比其他一些市場更大。所以這可能對紐約的數據有幫助。或許在某種程度上，紐約是該行業和萬豪酒店的重要市場，所以這可能會有所幫助。我認為，如果我們從萬豪酒店集團的角度來看待整個行業，我們會發現我們對單一忠誠度計劃以及它能夠推動我們發展的方式，以及我們將要運營和管理的這家完全穩定的公司，都抱有非常樂觀的態度，尤其是在我們進入 2019 年的時候。所以這些東西對我們也應該有所幫助。

The only comment I'll add is that as you look at GDP forecasts out there, generally for '19 versus '18, they are slightly down.

我唯一要補充的是，從目前公佈的 GDP 預測來看，2019 年的預測值通常比 2018 年略有下降。

Yes.

是的。

So we're not assuming in these numbers a meaningful acceleration in the U.S. economy, which may or may not be true.

因此，這些數字並沒有假設美國經濟出現實質的加速成長，而這是否屬實仍有待商榷。

Got it. That's helpful. And then one other thing. In years past, sometimes, you've commented on the quarterly cadence growth. And I know that, I think, the Easter shift turns out to be saleable for the first quarter of next year. But maybe just helping investors with the trend line going into the next year, domestically, 4Q, you're thinking approximately 1%. Is it just as simple as the hurricane compares get a little bit easier going into next year and that helps get you towards the midpoint of that range? Or how should we think about kind of the...

知道了。那很有幫助。還有一件事。過去幾年，你有時會對季度成長節奏發表評論。而且我認為，復活節期間的促銷活動在明年第一季應該會很受歡迎。但或許只是為了幫助投資人了解明年國內第四季的趨勢線，你認為大約是 1%。是不是很簡單，明年颶風的預測難度會稍微降低一些，這樣就能幫助你接近預測範圍的中點？或者我們該如何看待這種…

Yes. We should be -- it's a good question. We should be careful about saying too much by quarter next year, given we haven't done the budget. I did mention that -- and part is because of the Easter comparison. But Q1 looks like a good quarter, and I think you've got -- we'll have less impact from the hurricane comparable, although there'll be some because I think the first quarter of 2018 in Houston, for example, was still quite strong because of relief work and that sort of thing. But group business looks good. The calendar looks good. So I think Q3 should be probably better than average for the quarters next year. But again, let's wait until we get the detailed work done before we talk too much about individual quarters for next year.

是的。我們應該——這是一個很好的問題。鑑於我們還沒有製定預算，我們應該謹慎對待明年季度的預測，不要說得太具體。我確實提到過這一點——部分原因是因為與復活節的比較。但第一季看起來不錯，我認為——颶風的影響會比往年小，儘管還是會有一些影響，因為我認為例如休士頓在 2018 年第一季仍然相當強勁，因為救災工作等等。但集團業務看起來不錯。這個日曆看起來不錯。所以我認為明年第三季的業績可能會高於平均。但是，我們還是等到具體的工作都完成後再來過多討論明年各季度的具體情況吧。

Your final question is coming from Bill Crow of Raymond James.

最後一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Bill Crow。

Arne, my first question is on Sheraton. Other than selling assets, trying to drive quality through consistency, anything you can point to that shows success in kind of reviving the brand that Starwood spent more than a decade trying to get going?

Arne，我的第一個問題是關於喜來登酒店的。除了出售資產、努力透過保持一致性來提升品質之外，你還能指出哪些方面成功地重振了喜達屋花了十多年時間才建立起來的品牌？

Well, we're about fair share. The brand is about fair share for the first time in memory as far as I know. We've moved it a few full points since the deal was done. Guest satisfaction figures have moved globally, we think, by about 3 points, maybe 3 to 4 points. And that is, as far as guest data is concerned, a massive shift positive. We're not done with that. We think there's still upside associated with it. I think when we look around the world and see developer partner interest in the brand, we see that strengthening. And we know that we can look at the renovation commitments and schedules for the portfolio as a whole, but particularly on the weaker hotels, which we've talked about a bit in the past. And we feel we're making really good progress. I think the last point I'd raise, which is a little harder to prove because it's a little bit more about tenor of the conversation, but I mentioned during our prepared remarks, we had our U.S. full-service owners together last week here in Washington for our annual MINA meeting. And we feel really good alignment with them about where we're taking the Sheraton brand. So all of those things, this is a multiyear progress -- challenge to be sure. And we're a long way from being completed, but I think we are proving that we're making steady progress.

嗯，我們追求的是公平份額。據我所知，這個品牌有史以來第一次真正重視公平份額。自交易完成以來，我們已經將其提升了整整幾個點。我們認為，全球顧客滿意度指數上升了約 3 個百分點，或許 3 到 4 個百分點。就客戶數據而言，這是一個巨大的正面轉變。我們還沒完事。我們認為它仍有上漲空間。我認為，當我們放眼全球，看到開發商合作夥伴對品牌的興趣時，我們會看到這種興趣不斷增強。我們知道，我們可以查看整個投資組合的翻新承諾和時間表，但尤其要關注那些較弱的酒店，我們過去也曾討論過這些酒店。我們感覺我們取得了非常好的進展。我想提出的最後一點，可能比較難證明，因為它更多地與談話的基調有關，但我在事先準備好的發言稿中提到，上週我們在華盛頓召開了美國全方位服務船東年度MINA會議。我們與他們對於喜來登品牌的未來發展方向有著非常一致的認知。所以所有這些事情，都是一個需要多年才能完成的進展——當然，這也是一個挑戰。雖然離完工還有很長的路要走，但我認為我們正在證明我們正在穩步前進。

That's helpful. The follow-up and unrelated is on the special corporate negotiated rates. I think you said you were up low single digits. I don't know if you could put a finer point on that. But I'm sure every year, you get pushbacks from the companies you're dealing with. Is the pushback this year any different than it has been in past years? And is special corporate negotiated rates as important as it used to be, given that a lot of the economic growth has come from smaller companies?

那很有幫助。後續問題與此無關，而是關於公司特惠價格。我想你說過你們領先個位數。我不知道你還能不能把這一點表達得更清楚一些。但我相信，每年你都會收到與你合作的公司的反對意見。今年的阻力與往年有何不同？鑑於經濟成長很大程度上來自小型企業，企業特惠價格是否還像以前那麼重要？

Yes, I think that's a good reminder, actually. Laura might be able to tell us. Or, Leeny, maybe you know. I think special corporate is more important in the U.S. than any other market, any other big market. There may be some cities in various parts of the world where special corporate is important. And I believe the total special corporate as a percentage of our total business in the U.S. is only about 12% or 13%, something like that. What have we got here, Laura?

是的，我覺得這確實是個很好的提醒。勞拉或許能告訴我們。或者，莉妮，也許你知道。我認為，在美國，特殊企業比其他任何市場，其他大市場都更重要。世界各地有些城市可能非常重視特殊的企業文化。我相信，特殊企業業務占我們在美國總業務的比例只有大約 12% 或 13%，差不多是這個數字。蘿拉，我們這兒有什麼？

Yes. Here's North America.

是的。這是北美洲。

16% in full service and closer to 20% in limited service. And so it's relevant, but it's not massive. I think it gets the attention it does because it's negotiated. So it gives us a little bit more predictability on pricing than other transient business that's coming in. I think when you look at the way we've approached this, Starwood was higher with special corporate kind of as a percentage of total business than Marriott was. And that was because they had more special corporate accounts. They went to smaller companies. We've reduced actually compared to what Starwood had in some of those special corporate accounts. We'd obviously just as soon have as much of the business traveling public show up and pay, in effect, rack rate or a nondiscounted rate as possible. And so we're not necessarily always looking to expand the special corporate book. Having said that, we've got great corporate customers who expect to have special arrangements. And for the right customer, we're certainly doing that.

全方位服務型飯店佔 16%，有限服務型飯店佔接近 20%。所以它很重要，但影響不大。我認為它之所以受到關注，是因為它是經過協商的。因此，與其他臨時性業務相比，它能讓我們更可預測地定價。我認為，從我們處理這個問題的方式來看，喜達屋在特殊企業業務方面佔總業務的比例高於萬豪。那是因為他們擁有更多特殊的企業客戶。他們去了規模較小的公司。實際上，我們已經減少了與喜達屋在一些特殊企業帳戶中的支出。我們當然更希望盡可能多的商務旅行大眾前來，並支付實際的原價或非折扣價。因此，我們可能不會總是尋求擴大特殊企業貸款業務。話雖如此，我們也有一些重要的企業客戶，他們希望得到特殊的安排。對於合適的客戶，我們當然會這樣做。

All right. Thank you all very much for your attention this morning. Get out there and travel. Get out there and vote, I suppose first, but then come stay with us. Thanks.

好的。非常感謝各位今天上午的關注。走出去，去旅行。我想，首先應該去投票，然後就來跟我們一起住吧。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。