萬豪國際 (MAR) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Brandy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Marriott International First Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

早安.我叫布蘭迪，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表萬豪國際集團歡迎各位參加2018年第一季財報電話會議。（操作說明）謝謝。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Arne Sorenson, CEO of Marriott International. You may begin your conference.

現在我謹將會議交給萬豪國際集團執行長阿恩·索倫森先生。您可以開始會議了。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

各位早安。歡迎參加我們2018年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；投資者關係資深副總裁 Laura Paugh；以及投資者關係高級總監 Betsy Dahm。

First, let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night, along with our comments today, are effective only today, May 9, 2018, and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

首先，我要提醒大家，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們今天的評論僅在今天（2018 年 5 月 9 日）有效，不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。

This quarter, we have provided a set of slides to assist with today's discussion. You can find them on our website at www.marriott.com/investor or in our 8-K filing.

本季度，我們提供了一套幻燈片，以輔助今天的討論。您可以在我們的網站 www.marriott.com/investor 或我們的 8-K 檔案中找到它們。

In our discussion today, we will talk about results, excluding merger-related costs, reimbursed revenues and related expenses, a net adjustment to the tax charge related to the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and an adjustment to the Avendra gain.

在今天的討論中，我們將討論業績，不包括與合併相關的成本、已報銷的收入和相關費用、與 2017 年美國減稅和就業法案相關的稅收費用淨調整以及 Avendra 收益的調整。

GAAP results appear on Page A-1 of the earnings release, but our remarks today will largely refer to the adjusted results that appear on the non-GAAP reconciliation pages. Of course, you could find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks also on our website.

GAAP 結果出現在盈利報告的 A-1 頁，但我們今天的演講將主要指非 GAAP 調整頁上顯示的調整後結果。當然，您也可以在我們的網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及我們在聲明中提到的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

So let's get started. We were very pleased with our results in the first quarter. Worldwide system-wide constant dollar RevPAR increased 3.6%, beating the top end of our guidance by 60 basis points. Gross fee revenue rose 11%, and adjusted earnings per share increased 40%.

那麼，我們就開始吧。我們對第一季的業績非常滿意。全球系統範圍內的固定美元RevPAR成長了3.6%，比我們預期的上限高出60個基點。總費用收入成長了 11%，調整後每股收益成長了 40%。

Let's talk about the regions. System-wide constant dollar RevPAR in our Asia Pacific region increased 10%, which was much stronger than the mid-single-digit growth we expected. Hotels in Greater China saw an increase in RevPAR of nearly 12% due to better-than-expected corporate and leisure demand. Travel during the Chinese New Year exceeded our expectations, and outbound demand from Greater China helped drive double-digit RevPAR growth in Thailand and Singapore. Indonesia RevPAR increased 5% as many volcano-related travel advisories were lifted.

我們來談談各個地區。我們亞太地區的系統性固定美元RevPAR成長了10%，遠超過我們預期的個位數中段成長。由於商務和休閒需求優於預期，大中華區飯店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增加了近 12%。中國新年期間的旅遊需求超出了我們的預期，大中華區的出境需求推動了泰國和新加坡的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）實現兩位數增長。隨著許多與火山相關的旅遊警告解除，印尼的每間可供出租客房收入增加了 5%。

For our comparable hotels, RevPAR in India increased 6% in the first quarter on strong corporate and leisure demand. Just last month, I attended the grand opening of our 100th hotel in India, the Sheraton Grand Bengaluru Whitefield Hotel & Convention Center. The mood in India is very upbeat. The Asian Development Bank recently forecasted that in 2018, India will have the fastest growing economy in Asia following recent financial reforms. With this rapid near-term growth and rising middle class, we are bullish about India. With over 20,000 open rooms, India is already our fourth largest market in the world, just behind the U.S., China and Canada, and has more than 11,000 rooms in our development pipeline.

與我們同類酒店相比，由於強勁的商務和休閒需求，印度第一季的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 6%。就在上個月，我參加了我們在印度的第 100 家酒店——班加羅爾白田喜來登大酒店及會議中心的盛大開幕典禮。印度的氣氛非常樂觀。亞洲開發銀行近期預測，在經歷了近期的金融改革之後，印度將在2018年成為亞洲經濟成長最快的國家。鑑於印度近期快速成長和中產階級不斷壯大，我們看好印度的前景。印度目前擁有超過 20,000 間開放客房，已成為我們在全球的第四大市場，僅次於美國、中國和加拿大，另有超過 11,000 間客房正在開發中。

In the Middle East and Africa, system-wide constant dollar RevPAR rose over 3% year-over-year compared to flat results expected for the quarter. RevPAR in Egypt rose 30% on easy comparisons, while the UAE saw greater leisure demand from China and India, helped by the opening of the Louvre Museum in Abu Dhabi. South Africa's RevPAR declined 2% due in part to the water crisis in Cape Town.

在中東和非洲，系統整體以固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入年增超過 3%，而此前預計該季度業績將持平。由於基數較小，埃及的每​​個可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 30%，而阿聯酋則受益於來自中國和印度的休閒旅遊需求增長，這得益於阿布扎比盧浮宮博物館的開放。南非的每間可供出租客房收入下降了 2%，部分原因是開普敦的水危機。

In Europe, strong economic growth took system-wide constant dollar RevPAR up nearly 6% in the quarter year-over-year, consistent with the mid-single-digit growth assumed in our first quarter guidance. We saw a mid-teens RevPAR growth in Eastern Europe on strong corporate and leisure demand, while RevPAR in Turkey and France continued to rebound. London RevPAR was flat year-over-year, reflecting weak demand from the financial services industry, likely Brexit-related.

在歐洲，強勁的經濟成長使系統整體的固定美元RevPAR在本季度同比增長近6%，與我們在第一季預期中假設的個位數中增長一致。東歐的RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）在強勁的企業和休閒需求推動下實現了兩位數以上的成長，而土耳其和法國的RevPAR則持續反彈。倫敦每間可供出租客房收入與去年同期持平，反映出金融服務業需求疲軟，可能與英國脫歐有關。

In the Caribbean and Latin America region, RevPAR increased nearly 9% in the quarter, which was stronger than the mid-single-digit growth included in our guidance. RevPAR at our comparable Caribbean hotels increased over 20%, benefiting from lower industry supply as many hotels remain out of service following last year's hurricanes.

在加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區，本季每間可供出租客房收入成長了近 9%，高於我們先前預期的個位數中段成長。由於去年颶風過後許多飯店仍處於關閉狀態，行業供應減少，我們加勒比地區同類酒店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長超過 20%。

Mexico RevPAR declined 5% following the steep devaluation of the peso and continued travel warnings for some markets. RevPAR in our Central and South American markets increased at a high single-digit rate on average, with significant and surprising demand strength in Argentina, Brazil and Costa Rica.

由於比索大幅貶值以及部分市場持續發布旅遊警告，墨西哥每間可供出租客房收入下降了 5%。我們在中南美洲市場的每間可供出租客房收入平均增長了接近兩位數，其中阿根廷、巴西和哥斯達黎加的需求強勁且出人意料。

Let's turn to North America. As you may recall, last quarter, we were hopeful we would see a pickup in North America economic growth. Our hopes have been realized. It's time to take the numbers up a bit. Recall that in 2017, our North American RevPAR increased 2.1%. If adjusted for calendar and event anomalies such as the inauguration, shift in holidays and the 2017 hurricanes, we estimated 2017 RevPAR would have increased 1.7%.

讓我們把目光轉向北美。您可能還記得，上個季度，我們曾希望看到北美經濟成長回升。我們的願望實現了。是時候提高一下數字了。回顧一下，2017 年，我們在北美的每間可供出租客房收入增加了 2.1%。如果根據就職典禮、假日變更和 2017 年颶風等日曆和事件異常情況進行調整，我們估計 2017 年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 1.7%。

In the first quarter of 2018, North American RevPAR rose 2%, at the high end of our guidance. Excluding the impact of the shift in Easter holiday, last year's presidential inauguration and the lingering impact of the hurricanes, we estimate RevPAR would have been up 2.7%, a full point higher than 2017's adjusted numbers. This acceleration is encouraging.

2018 年第一季度，北美 RevPAR 成長 2%，達到我們預期的高端水準。如果排除復活節假期調整、去年總統就職典禮以及颶風持續影響的影響，我們估計每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將增長 2.7%，比 2017 年的調整後數字高出一個百分點。這種加速發展令人鼓舞。

Transient RevPAR increased roughly 2.5% in the first quarter, helped by reduced corporate discounting in the Legacy-Starwood portfolio, better leisure demand, improved international arrivals and overall strengthening corporate demand, particularly in the oil and gas industry. Special corporate room rates at Legacy-Marriott Hotels increased nearly 3% in the quarter.

第一季臨時RevPAR成長約2.5%，這得益於Legacy-Starwood旗下酒店集團的企業折扣減少、休閒需求改善、國際遊客數量增加以及企業需求整體增強（尤其是在石油和天然氣行業）。Legacy-Marriott Hotels 旗下企業特價客房價格在本季上漲了近 3%。

Speaking of oil, we are encouraged by recent demand trends in energy markets. You may recall that it was the energy business where we first saw weaker RevPAR trends in the fourth quarter of 2015. More recently, Houston's RevPAR was significantly impacted by Hurricane Harvey in the 2017 fourth quarter and the difficult year-over-year Super Bowl comparison in the 2018 first quarter. Yet, underlying oil gas industry demand has been improving.

說到石油，我們對近期能源市場的需求趨勢感到鼓舞。您可能還記得，我們​​在 2015 年第四季首次發現能源產業的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 趨勢疲軟。最近，休士頓的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 在 2017 年第四季受到颶風哈維的嚴重影響，並在 2018 年第一季受到超級盃帶來的同比影響。然而，石油和天然氣行業的潛在需求一直在改善。

We looked at the RevPAR performance of our hotels in 40 energy submarkets in the U.S., in places such as Oklahoma, North Dakota and Louisiana, to name a few. Excluding Houston, we note that RevPAR for our hotels in these U.S. markets rose 6% in the fourth quarter of 2017 and 8% in the first quarter of 2018. Canadian energy markets were even stronger.

我們檢視了美國 40 個能源子市場中旗下飯店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 表現，這些子市場包括俄克拉荷馬州、北達科他州和路易斯安那州等地。除了休士頓外，我們注意到，我們在美國這些市場的酒店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 在 2017 年第四季度增長 6%，在 2018 年第一季度增長了 8%。加拿大能源市場表現更強勁。

We are also encouraged by recent group trends. We expected lower group business as we started the quarter due to the shift in the Easter holiday. Actual group RevPAR was stronger than expected, ending flat year-over-year for the first quarter. Our performance was largely due to better-than-expected attendance at group meetings and stronger group business at our limited-service hotels.

近期的團體發展趨勢也令我們感到鼓舞。由於復活節假期時間的變化，我們預計本季初集團業務量將會下降。實際集團每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 強於預期，與去年同期相比，第一季基本持平。我們的業績主要歸功於團體會議出席人數超出預期以及我們有限服務酒店的團體業務更加強勁。

Food and beverage trends are improving, too. Food and beverage revenue per group room night rose nearly 6% in the quarter. RevPAR at our luxury hotels in North America increased 4.3% in the first quarter. Luxury hotels in Miami benefited from Florida and Caribbean hotels still out of service from the 2017 hurricanes, while RevPAR at our luxury hotels in Hawaii benefited from renovations and greater air lift from the U.S. mainland and Japan. RevPAR growth at Ritz-Carlton and St. Regis was stronger than expected.

食品和飲料行業趨勢也在不斷改善。本季每間團體客房每晚的餐飲收入成長了近 6%。第一季度，我們在北美地區的豪華飯店每間可供出租客房收入成長了 4.3%。由於 2017 年颶風過後佛羅裡達州和加勒比海地區的酒店仍然處於停業狀態，邁阿密的豪華酒店從中受益；而夏威夷的豪華酒店則受益於翻新工程以及來自美國大陸和日本的更大航空運輸量。麗茲卡爾頓酒店和聖瑪麗亞酒店的每間可供出租客房收入成長雷吉斯的表現比預期好。

RevPAR at our North American upper-upscale hotels increased 1% as the shift in holiday constrained group demand at large full-service hotels. We are encouraged that group revenue booking pace for our luxury and upper-upscale hotels is up more than 4% for the second quarter and up 1% to 2% for the second half of 2018 compared to prior year periods.

由於假日安排的變化限制了大型全方位服務酒店的團體需求，我們北美高檔酒店的每間可供出租客房收入增長了 1%。我們很高興地看到，與去年同期相比，我們豪華和高檔酒店的團體收入預訂速度在第二季度增長了 4% 以上，2018 年下半年增長了 1% 至 2%。

RevPAR at our North American limited-service hotels increased 2.5% in the quarter compared to the year-ago quarter, despite a mid-single-digit percentage increase in industry room supply in this tier. Limited-service hotels saw strong demand from the oil and gas industry, continued hurricane recovery demand and both the Super Bowl in Minneapolis and the playoffs in Philadelphia. Group revenue at our limited-service hotels rose 4%.

儘管北美有限服務酒店行業客房供應量僅增長了個位數百分比，但本季度我們北美有限服務酒店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 仍比去年同期增長了 2.5%。有限服務型飯店的需求強勁，這主要得益於石油和天然氣行業的強勁需求、颶風災後重建的持續需求，以及明尼阿波利斯超級盃和費城季後賽的舉辦。我們旗下有限服務酒店的集團收入成長了 4%。

Our economic outlook has improved. At the same time, the labor market is tight and wages are rising in many markets. This is pressuring hotel operating margins and lengthening new hotel construction time lines, particularly for non-prototype and urban hotels in North America and Europe. Leeny will speak in a few minutes about our terrific hotel operating margin performance in the face of these trends.

我們的經濟前景有所改善。同時，勞動市場緊張，許多市場的工資都在上漲。這給酒店的營運利潤率帶來了壓力，並延長了新酒店的建設週期，尤其是在北美和歐洲，對於非原型酒店和城市酒店而言更是如此。Leeny 將在幾分鐘後談到，面對這些趨勢，我們酒店依然取得了出色的營業利潤率。

We continue to make great progress in our integration of Starwood. Thus far in 2018, we have combined financial reporting systems, integrated our North American sales organization and recycled approximately $170 million in capital from asset sales and loan repayments. By August, we expect guests will be able to see and book all of our inventory on each of our Marriott and Starwood websites and apps and enjoy our unified loyalty programs.

我們在整合喜達屋方面持續取得巨大進展。截至 2018 年，我們已合併財務報告系統，整合了北美銷售組織，並透過資產出售和貸款償還回收了約 1.7 億美元的資本。預計到 8 月份，賓客將能夠在萬豪和喜達屋的各個網站和應用程式上查看和預訂我們所有的房源，並享受我們統一的會員計劃。

New cobranded credit cards from Chase and Amex should enrich guest loyalty even further. We look forward to rolling our hotels onto a single reservation system in stages, with the first group of hotels converting in the fall of 2018. And finally, we expect owners will continue to see significant cost savings as the integration continues.

Chase 和 Amex 推出的全新聯名信用卡將進一步提升顧客忠誠度。我們期待分階段將旗下酒店整合到一個統一的預訂系統中，第一批酒店將於 2018 年秋季完成轉換。最後，我們預計隨著整合的持續，業主將繼續看到顯著的成本節約。

But innovation is as important to us as integration. Our Moments platform continues to grow and enrich our loyalty programs. Currently, the platform includes more than 110,000 experiences in 1,000 destinations, ranging from destination tours and day trips, like shark cage diving in South Africa to once-in-a-lifetime events like sipping champagne trackside at next month's Belmont Stakes.

但對我們來說，創新與融合同等重要。我們的 Moments 平台不斷發展壯大，並豐富了我們的會員忠誠度計畫。目前，該平台包含 1000 個目的地的 110000 多種體驗，從目的地旅遊和一日遊（例如在南非進行鯊籠潛水）到一生難得一遇的活動（例如在下個月的貝爾蒙特錦標賽賽道旁品嚐香檳）。

Last summer, we formed a new joint venture with Alibaba to improve service and sales for Chinese guests. Just last month, the JV launched our redesigned storefront on Alibaba's travel site, Fliggy. It now features our global inventory of hotels with a localized, mobile-enhanced and user-friendly layout. During 2018, we are rolling out Alipay Post Post Pay, an innovative hotel payment service to 1,000 hotels worldwide. Alipay Post Post Pay enables qualified Fliggy users to enjoy a comprehensive wallet-free experience during their stay.

去年夏天，我們與阿里巴巴成立了一家新的合資企業，旨在改善對中國客戶的服務和銷售。就在上個月，合資公司在阿里巴巴旗下的旅遊網站飛豬上推出了我們重新設計的店鋪。現在，它以在地化、行動增強和用戶友好的佈局展示了我們全球的酒店庫存。2018 年，我們將向全球 1,000 家飯店推出創新飯店支付服務－支付寶郵付。支付寶後付功能讓符合資格的飛豬用戶在入住期間享受全面的無錢包體驗。

We entered into agreement to manage the first-ever Ritz-Carlton luxury yacht, bringing Ritz-Carlton's service and our asset-light business model to the luxury cruise business. The first Ritz-Carlton yacht with 149 luxury suites is scheduled to launch in 2020.

我們達成協議，管理首艘麗思卡爾頓豪華遊艇，將麗茲卡爾頓的服務和我們輕資產的商業模式帶入豪華郵輪行業。麗思卡爾頓首艘擁有 149 間豪華套房的遊艇計劃於 2020 年下水。

Last month, we announced that we are testing home sharing in London with approximately 200 Tribute portfolio homes. While only a test, we are integrating our home-sharing offerings into our loyalty programs, curating for design, functionality, location and safety and providing the commitment to service and quality that is not typical in this space.

上個月，我們宣布正在倫敦測試房屋共享模式，涉及 Tribute 旗下約 200 套房屋。雖然這只是一個測試，但我們正在將我們的房屋共享服務整合到我們的會員計劃中，精心挑選設計、功能、位置和安全性，並提供在這個領域不常見的優質服務和品質承諾。

Behind the scenes, we recently launched a new customer recognition platform, which will allow Marriott associates globally, both on and off property, to deliver better service. Integrated with our mobile app and chat functions, our associates will be able to access guest portfolios, preferences and history to ensure every guest anywhere in the world can receive truly personalized service. This is another use of technology to drive guest satisfaction.

在幕後，我們最近推出了一個新的客戶認可平台，這將使萬豪全球員工，無論是在酒店內還是酒店外，都能提供更好的服務。透過與我們的行動應用程式和聊天功能集成，我們的員工將能夠存取客人的檔案、偏好和歷史記錄，以確保世界各地的每位客人都能獲得真正個人化的服務。這是利用科技提升顧客滿意度的另一個例子。

House profit margins declined 10 basis points for our North American upper-upscale hotels in the first quarter in the face of modest RevPAR growth and higher operating expenses, particularly labor cost. This kind of margin pressure caused us to reduce commission rates for most group intermediaries in North America from 10% to 7% for bookings made on or after April 1 of this year. This change will not have a material impact on Marriott International's results, but the commission change should make a meaningful difference to hotel owners, particularly those where group business is a significant share of their overall occupancy. The change in commission rates triggered a considerable number of new group bookings in the first quarter, largely for meetings taking place in 2020 and beyond.

第一季度，由於每間可供出租客房收入成長緩慢以及營運費用（尤其是勞動力成本）上升，我們北美高檔飯店的利潤率下降了 10 個基點。這種利潤壓力導致我們將北美大多數團體中介的佣金率從 10% 降低到 7%，適用於今年 4 月 1 日或之後進行的預訂。這項變化不會對萬豪國際的業績產生實質影響，但佣金的變化應該會對酒店業主產生有意義的影響，特別是那些團體業務在其整體入住率中佔很大比例的酒店業主。佣金率的變化在第一季引發了大量新的團體預訂，主要針對 2020 年及以後舉行的會議。

On the development front, we opened nearly 15,000 rooms worldwide in the first quarter, and our pipeline at quarter-end approached 465,000 rooms. We signed just under 20,000 new rooms in the quarter, 10% more than in the first quarter of 2017. According to STR, we have the largest pipeline of guest rooms under development in the world.

在開發方面，我們第一季在全球開設了近 15,000 間客房，到季度末，我們的在建客房數量接近 465,000 間。本季我們新增了近 2 萬間客房，比 2017 年第一季成長了 10%。據STR稱，我們擁有全球最大的在建客房項目儲備。

Let's look at a few of the details. Our development pipeline skews toward faster-growing international markets. While 1/3 of our open rooms are in international markets, over half of the rooms in our pipeline are located outside North America. And of our international pipeline, nearly 60% of the rooms are in the Asia Pacific region.

我們來看一些細節。我們的開發項目傾向於成長速度更快的國際市場。雖然我們三分之一的開放房間位於國際市場，但我們籌備中的房間超過一半位於北美以外。在我們的國際項目儲備中，近 60% 的客房位於亞太地區。

While we already have the largest luxury and upper-upscale portfolio in the world, our strong pipeline should extend that lead even further. In fact, a number of our luxury and upper-upscale pipeline rooms exceed that of our next 3 largest global competitors combined. Full-service hotels drive significant fees per room and enhance the value of our loyalty program, which is strengthened by the aspirational destinations it offers. Given our scale, we are excited to think about what we can accomplish once integration is complete. Today, as a much larger company, we are enhancing an already efficient cost structure and providing greater resources to drive high-value demand.

雖然我們已經擁有全球最大的豪華和高端品牌組合，但我們強大的專案儲備應該會進一步擴大這一領先優勢。事實上，我們的一些豪華和高檔管道客房的數量超過了我們全球排名前三的競爭對手的總和。全方位服務酒店能帶來可觀的每間客房費用，並提升我們忠誠度計劃的價值，而這些忠誠度計劃又因其提供的令人嚮往的目的地而得到加強。鑑於我們的規模，我們很興奮地思考，一旦整合完成，我們將能夠取得怎樣的成就。如今，作為一家規模更大的公司，我們正在優化現有的高效成本結構，並提供更多資源來推動高價值需求。

And even with these exciting changes, our core strategy is unchanged. We remain a manager and franchisor of the leading lodging brands in the world. We continue to work to make our brands even stronger. We embrace change perhaps now more than ever. And we pride ourselves on our corporate culture, a culture of service to others. Marriott is a company with a more than 90-year history of creating value for its shareholders, and we are committed to continuing to do so.

即使有了這些令人振奮的變化，我們的核心策略仍然保持不變。我們仍然是全球領先酒店品牌的管理者和特許經營商。我們將繼續努力，使我們的品牌更加強大。或許現在我們比以往任何時候都更樂於接受改變。我們為我們的企業文化感到自豪，這是一種服務他人的文化。萬豪酒店集團是一家擁有90多年歷史，一直致力於為股東創造價值的公司，我們將繼續這樣做。

Before turning the microphone over to Leeny, let me thank Marriott's associates around the world. They are shouldering the burden of integrating Marriott and Starwood even as they deliver excellent results for our business as usual. Their work inspires me. Thanks for all you do.

在把麥克風交給李尼之前，請容許我感謝萬豪酒店集團在全球的員工。他們肩負著整合萬豪和喜達屋的重任，同時也為我們的日常業務帶來了卓越的業績。他們的作品激勵了我。感謝你所做的一切。

Now for some more thoughts about first quarter performance and our outlook, let me turn things over to Leeny.

現在，讓我們把麥克風交給李尼，讓他來談談第一季的業績和展望。

Thank you, Arne. For the first quarter of 2018, adjusted diluted earnings per share totaled $1.34 compared to $0.96 in the year-ago quarter. Both first quarter 2018 and first quarter 2017 reflect the new revenue recognition accounting standard. We expect to have the remaining 2017 quarters and the 2017 full year income statement reflecting the new rules available to you later this quarter.

謝謝你，阿恩。2018 年第一季度，經調整後的稀釋每股收益總計 1.34 美元，而去年同期為 0.96 美元。2018 年第一季和 2017 年第一季均反映了新的收入確認會計準則。我們預計將在本季稍後向您提供反映新規則的 2017 年剩餘季度和 2017 年全年損益表。

In the first quarter, gross fee revenues totaled $845 million, an 11% increase year-over-year, largely from unit growth, RevPAR gain and higher incentives and branding fees. Credit card fees alone totaled $86 million, up 58%; while other non-property fees, including application and relicensing fees, timeshare fees and residential branding fees, increased 6% to $38 million. With a weaker U.S. dollar, first quarter fee revenue also benefited from a nearly $8 million favorable impact from foreign exchange, net of hedges.

第一季總費用收入為 8.45 億美元，年增 11%，主要得益於單位數量增長、每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長以及更高的激勵和品牌推廣費用。光是信用卡手續費就高達 8,600 萬美元，成長了 58%；而其他非房產費用，包括申請費和重新授權費、分時度假費和住宅品牌推廣費，成長了 6%，達到 3,800 萬美元。由於美元走軟，第一季手續費收入也受益於外匯帶來的近 800 萬美元有利影響（扣除對沖收益後）。

Worldwide house profit margins for company-operated hotels improved 70 basis points on a 4.0% increase in managed hotel RevPAR. In North America, margins declined slightly on a 1.4% increase in company-operated hotel RevPAR. Despite the modest RevPAR growth and significant wage growth, we were able to hold onto our North America house profit margin due to procurement savings, productivity improvement and the rollout of shared services to more hotels.

全球公司自營酒店的利潤率提高了 70 個基點，而管理酒店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 4.0%。在北美，儘管該公司自營酒店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 1.4%，但利潤率略有下降。儘管每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長不大，薪資成長顯著，但由於採購成本節約、生產力提高以及向更多飯店推廣共享服務，我們得以維持北美地區的飯店利潤率。

We estimate efficiency improvements and synergies contributed an average of 50 basis points to worldwide property-level margins in 2017. And our goal is to add another 50 basis points, apart from the impact of RevPAR growth on average in 2018.

我們估計，2017 年效率提升和綜效平均為全球房地產層面的利潤率貢獻了 50 個基點。我們的目標是在2018年平均每間可供出租客房收入成長的影響之外，再增加50個基點。

Beginning in the third quarter, we expect to standardize loyalty charge-out rates by chain scale, with most brands benefiting from even lower charge-out rate. Owned, leased and other revenue, net of expenses, totaled $70 million in the first quarter, a 3% decline from the prior year. The sale of 4 properties in 2017 and early 2018 reduced results in the quarter by $22 million year-over-year, while termination fees increased results by $21 million.

從第三季開始，我們預計將以連鎖店規模統一收取會員費，大多數品牌將受益於更低的收費率。第一季度，自有資產、租賃資產和其他收入（扣除支出後）總計 7,000 萬美元，比去年同期下降 3%。2017 年和 2018 年初出售 4 處房產，導致該季度業績同比減少了 2,200 萬美元，而終止費則使業績增加了 2,100 萬美元。

General and administrative expenses increased by $35 million in the first quarter due to the additional profit-sharing match for associates for 2018. Last quarter, we announced our plan to invest roughly $140 million during 2018 in our most important asset, our people, with about $70 million of the cost funded by Marriott and the remainder funded by a portion of the Avendra proceeds. We are largely doing this by increasing our retirement savings match of associate contributions by up to $1,000 for the first $200 invested by eligible associates in the U.S. We also intend to invest in other associate support programs during the year.

由於 2018 年員工利潤分享配比增加，第一季一般及行政費用增加了 3,500 萬美元。上個季度，我們宣布了在 2018 年投資約 1.4 億美元用於我們最重要的資產——員工——的計劃，其中約 7000 萬美元由萬豪提供資金，其餘部分由 Avendra 的部分收益提供資金。我們主要透過提高員工退休儲蓄配對比例來實現這一目標，對於符合資格的美國員工前 200 美元的投資，我們將配對比例提高至最高 1000 美元。我們也計劃在年內投資其他員工支援計劃。

Of the $70 million of expected Marriott cost for this investment, $35 million was reflected in our G&A expenses in the first quarter. Given the 5:1 match feature for the first $200 invested, we expect the expenses associated with this plan to be [locked] and loaded in the first half of 2018. We estimate our second quarter G&A will include $25 million for this investment, with the remaining $10 million expense to be reflected in G&A in the second half of the year.

萬豪預計為此投資投入 7,000 萬美元，其中 3,500 萬美元已計入我們第一季的一般及行政費用。鑑於前 200 美元投資可獲得 5:1 的配捐，我們預計與該計劃相關的費用將在 2018 年上半年確定下來。我們預計第二季一般及行政費用將包括這項投資的 2,500 萬美元，剩餘的 1,000 萬美元支出將在下半年計入一般及行政費用。

Unfavorable foreign exchange also increased G&A expense by $6 million but was offset by synergy savings. First quarter gains largely reflect $53 million associated with the sale of the Buenos Aires Sheraton and Park Tower properties. First quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to $770 million and reflected a roughly $20 million negative impact from sold hotels.

不利的匯率波動也導致一般及行政費用增加了 600 萬美元，但綜效帶來的節省抵銷了這一影響。第一季收益主要反映了出售布宜諾斯艾利斯喜來登酒店和公園塔樓物業所得的 5,300 萬美元。第一季調整後 EBITDA 成長 8% 至 7.7 億美元，其中出售飯店帶來了約 2,000 萬美元的負面影響。

Looking ahead, we expect worldwide constant dollar system-wide RevPAR will increase 3% to 4% in both the second quarter and the full year. In the Asia Pacific region, we expect second quarter and full year RevPAR will increase at a high single-digit rate, reflecting continued strength in corporate and leisure demand.

展望未來，我們預計第二季和全年全球以固定美元計算的系統性每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 3% 至 4%。在亞太地區，我們預計第二季和全年每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以接近兩位數的速度成長，反映出企業和休閒需求的持續強勁。

The Caribbean and Latin American region had a very strong first quarter, but RevPAR growth should slow a bit as many hurricane-damaged hotels in the Caribbean reopened during the year, creating tougher comparison. In Europe, we expect RevPAR will continue to grow at a mid-single-digit rate in both the second quarter and the full year 2018.

加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區第一季表現非常強勁，但隨著加勒比海地區許多受颶風破壞的酒店在年內重新開業，RevPAR 成長應該會略有放緩，這使得比較更加困難。在歐洲，我們預計 2018 年第二季和全年每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將繼續以中等個位數的速度成長。

For the Middle East and Africa region, the timing of Ramadan should reduce RevPAR in the second quarter, with offsetting stronger results expected in the third quarter. For the full year, the region's RevPAR is likely to be flat. All in all, we believe our international hotels could increase RevPAR by 5% to 6% for both the second quarter and the full year.

對於中東和非洲地區而言，齋月的到來應該會降低第二季度的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR），但預計第三季度會有更強勁的業績來抵消這一影響。預計該地區全年每間可供出租客房收入將保持穩定。總而言之，我們相信我們的國際飯店第二季和全年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 可以成長 5% 至 6%。

For North America, we expect RevPAR will grow 3% to 4% in the second quarter as group business benefits from the timing of Easter. For the full year, we expect RevPAR growth of 2% to 3%. This outlook is more bullish than on our last call, reflecting the stronger demand trends Arne discussed. We continue to expect 5.5% to 6% net worldwide rooms growth for the full year, disproportionately skewed toward international markets.

對於北美地區，我們預計第二季每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 3% 至 4%，因為團體業務將受益於復活節的到來。我們預計全年每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 2% 至 3%。與我們上次通話相比，這項展望更為樂觀，反映了 Arne 所討論的更強勁的需求趨勢。我們仍預期全年全球客房淨成長率為 5.5% 至 6%，其中國際市場佔比過高。

Slide 11 shows our guidance for the second quarter. Given our worldwide RevPAR and unit growth assumptions, we expect gross fee revenue for the second quarter will total $935 million to $945 million, an 11% increase over the prior year. Our fee revenue estimate assumes $90 million to $95 million in credit card branding fees in the second quarter and roughly $10 million in favorable foreign exchange impact.

第 11 張投影片展示了我們對第二季的業績預期。根據我們對全球每間可供出租客房收入和單位增長的假設，我們預計第二季度總費用收入將達到 9.35 億美元至 9.45 億美元，比上年增長 11%。我們預計第二季信用卡品牌推廣費收入為 9,000 萬至 9,500 萬美元，並預計外匯匯率將帶來約 1,000 萬美元的有利影響。

We expect owned, leased and other revenue, net of direct expenses, will total roughly $80 million in the second quarter. In the 2017 second quarter, we earned $14 million from assets that have since been sold. Our guidance assumes no further asset sales beyond those that have been completed.

我們預計第二季自有、租賃和其他收入（扣除直接費用後）總計約為 8,000 萬美元。2017 年第二季度，我們從已售出的資產中獲利 1,400 萬美元。我們的指導意見假設除已完成的資產出售外，不會再有其他資產出售。

G&A should total roughly $250 million in the second quarter, reflecting the roughly $25 million expense for our additional profit-sharing contribution. These assumptions yield $1.34 to $1.36 diluted earnings per share for the second quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $880 million to $890 million, 7% to 9% over adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter 2017. We estimate our second quarter adjusted EBITDA reflects an $11 million negative impact from sold hotels.

第二季一般及行政費用總額應約為 2.5 億美元，其中包括我們額外利潤分成貢獻的約 2,500 萬美元支出。根據這些假設，第二季稀釋後每股收益為 1.34 美元至 1.36 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 8.8 億美元至 8.9 億美元，比 2017 年第二季調整後 EBITDA 成長 7% 至 9%。我們預計第二季調整後 EBITDA 將因出售飯店而受到 1,100 萬美元的負面影響。

For the full year 2018, we believe gross fee revenue could increase 11%. This is a meaningful increase over our last guidance, reflecting stronger RevPAR and margin growth and about $25 million of favorable foreign exchange impact. We believe incentive fees will increase at a roughly 10% rate, which is faster than we previously modeled, largely due to the stronger RevPAR and margin growth in the Asia Pacific region.

我們認為，2018 年全年總費用收入可能會成長 11%。這比我們先前的預期有了顯著提高，反映了RevPAR和利潤率的強勁成長以及約2500萬美元的有利外匯影響。我們認為激勵費用將以大約 10% 的速度增長，這比我們之前預測的速度要快，主要是由於亞太地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 和利潤率增長更為強勁。

We continue to expect our credit card branding fees will total $360 million to $380 million in 2018. Owned, leased and other revenue, net of direct expense, should total roughly $300 million for the year, modestly higher than our last forecast, largely due to higher termination fees in the first quarter. G&A should total $940 million to $950 million for 2018, which includes our $70 million additional contribution to profit sharing.

我們仍預期 2018 年信用卡品牌推廣費總額將達到 3.6 億至 3.8 億美元。扣除直接支出後，自有、租賃和其他收入全年總計應約為 3 億美元，略高於我們先前的預測，主要是由於第一季終止費較高。2018 年一般及行政費用總額應為 9.4 億美元至 9.5 億美元，其中包括我們額外向利潤分享計畫貢獻的 7,000 萬美元。

Our full year estimate of gains has increased $20 million to $25 million, largely reflecting transactions that are already complete, including the sale in April of a JV interest that resulted in proceeds of $46 million.

我們對全年收益的估計增加了 2000 萬美元至 2500 萬美元，這主要反映了已經完成的交易，包括 4 月份出售合資企業權益，獲得了 4600 萬美元的收益。

Our full year outlook assumes a 2018 effective tax rate of roughly 23%. In our February earnings guidance, we assumed a 22% effective tax rate. The change is due to some discrete items and fine-tuning. For 2018, we continue to expect our cash tax rate will total 36%. These assumptions yield $5.43 to $5.55 diluted earnings per share for 2018 and adjusted EBITDA of $3.445 billion to $3.5 billion, 10% to 12% over the 2017 adjusted EBITDA.

我們全年的展望假設 2018 年的實際稅率約為 23%。我們在2月份的獲利預測中假設實際稅率為22%。這一變化是由於一些具體項目和微調造成的。2018 年，我們仍然預期現金稅率總計為 36%。根據這些假設，2018 年稀釋後每股收益為 5.43 美元至 5.55 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 34.45 億美元至 35 億美元，比 2017 年調整後 EBITDA 成長 10% 至 12%。

Our full year adjusted EBITDA estimate reflects a roughly $45 million negative impact from sold hotels as well as the $70 million cost associated with the retirement match for our associates.

我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 估算反映了出售飯店帶來的約 4,500 萬美元的負面影響，以及與員工退休金匹配相關的 7,000 萬美元成本。

As we discussed last quarter, our 2018 guidance excludes the adjustment to the Avendra gain, merger-related costs, the timing impact of reimbursed revenues and expenses, and adjustments to the tax charge. Investment spending for the year could total $600 million to $700 million, including roughly $225 million of maintenance spending.

正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們的 2018 年業績指引不包括對 Avendra 收益的調整、與合併相關的成本、已報銷收入和支出的時間影響以及稅收費用的調整。今年的投資支出總額可能達到 6 億至 7 億美元，其中包括約 2.25 億美元的維護支出。

The remainder includes capital expenditures, loan advances, equity investments and contract investment. While contract investment is included in our investment spending estimate, under the new revenue standard, contract investment will be included in our cash flow statement going forward under the heading Cash from Operating Activities rather than in the Investing Activities section, as in the past.

其餘部分包括資本支出、貸款預付款、股權投資和合約投資。雖然合約投資已計入我們的投資支出估算中，但根據新的收入準則，合約投資今後將計入我們的現金流量表中的「經營活動現金流量」項下，而不是像過去那樣計入「投資活動現金流」項下。

We have already recycled over $1.3 billion of capital through asset sales and loan repayments to date since the closing of the Starwood acquisition. We're on track to reach our post-acquisition $1.5 billion target by year-end 2018, but our 2018 earnings and cash flow guidance assume no further asset sales.

自喜達屋收購案完成以來，我們迄今已透過資產出售和貸款償還回收了超過 13 億美元的資金。我們預計在 2018 年底前實現收購後 15 億美元的目標，但我們 2018 年的收益和現金流量預期假設不會再出售任何資產。

We've repurchased nearly 8 million shares from January 1 through yesterday for approximately $1.1 billion. With the benefit of higher anticipated earnings and cash flow, we now expect to return over $3 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2018. Last quarter, we estimated cash return to shareholders of approximately $2.5 billion for 2018.

從1月1日到昨天，我們已回購了近800萬股股票，總價值約11億美元。由於預期收益和現金流增加，我們現在預計在 2018 年透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還超過 30 億美元。上個季度，我們預計 2018 年股東現金回報約為 25 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains in great shape. As of March 31, our debt ratio was at the low end of our targeted credit standard of 3 to 3.25x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDAR. We've modeled our 2018 income statement and cash flow forecast at a 3.2x target.

我們的資產負債表依然保持良好狀態。截至 3 月 31 日，我們的債務比率處於目標信貸標準 3 至 3.25 倍調整後債務與調整後 EBITDAR 比率的低端。我們以 3.2 倍的目標收益率對 2018 年的損益表和現金流量預測進行了建模。

We appreciate your interest in Marriott. (Operator Instructions) We'll take your questions now.

感謝您對萬豪酒店的關注。（操作說明）現在開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Smedes Rose of Citi.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Smedes Rose of Citi 系列。

I wanted to ask you, I guess, specifically on your pipeline. It was up around 5,000 rooms sequentially. I realize it's still a big number, but it's a little lower in terms of growth than it has been. And I was just wondering if you could talk about, you mentioned the higher construction cost, if that's impacting your pipeline or if there's anything else in particular going on in the quarter. And along with that, your deletions seemed a little higher than usual as well.

我想問你一些關於你生產線方面的問題。房間數量依序增加了約 5000 間。我知道這仍然是一個很大的數字，但就成長速度而言，它比以前要低一些。我只是想問一下，您剛才提到了較高的建設成本，這是否對您的管道運輸造成了影響，或者本季度是否還有其他特別的事情發生。同時，你的刪除次數似乎也比平常略高一些。

Yes, those are all perfectly fair questions. The -- I think the best news around development pipeline we put in the prepared remarks, which is the signing of about 10% more deals in Q1 than Q1 last year, which was gratifying to us. I mean, we have talked before about the fact that we think organic industry growth in the United States in terms of new signings were probably peaked in 2015, 2016 time frame. Obviously, we've got some new brands. I would call out particularly Moxy and AC that are driving some of that sign-up as well as the sort of rebooting of Element and Aloft, which should give us the ability to compete better than the industry as a whole. But there's a lot of growth that's occurred in the United States. And I think, as a consequence of having some increase in number of signings was again a gratifying thing for us to see. We did, as we do every quarter, look through the entire development portfolio. We culled some deals that we were less confident would ultimately get completed. And of course, in culling those deals, we bring down a little bit offset the signings we've signed. So we had a little bit less growth in the total pipeline in Q1. In terms of the deletions, each one is its own story. I think I've looked through every individual hotel that left the system in the first quarter of 2018. It's never a surprise to see that many of those hotels are not contributing much in fees, in part because they are either near -- at the end of their contract life and not necessarily competing as well or participating in markets that are under a bit more pressure or, to some extent, because they weren't contributing sort of their fair share, we were less interested in having them stay in the system. And all those things sort of go into this calculation. But I think all things considered, we still saw some modest growth in the pipeline. And we're sticking tight with the 5.5% to 6% net unit growth, which again, this year, we'll open more rooms than we did last year. Last year, we opened more than we opened the year before. And I suspect the odds are that next year, we'll open more rooms than we open in 2018.

是的，這些都是非常合理的問題。我認為，我們在準備好的發言稿中提到的有關開發項目方面最好的消息是，第一季簽署的交易數量比去年第一季增加了約 10%，這讓我們感到非常欣慰。我的意思是，我們之前討論過，我們認為美國有機產業的成長（以新簽約數量衡量）可能在 2015 年、2016 年左右達到了頂峰。顯然，我們引進了一些新品牌。我特別要提到 Moxy 和 AC，它們推動了部分新用戶的註冊，還有 Element 和 Aloft 的某種程度上的重啟，這應該會讓我們有能力比整個行業更有競爭力。但美國已經取得了很大的發展。我認為，簽約人數的增加再次讓我們感到欣慰。我們像每個季度一樣，審查了整個開發項目組合。我們剔除了一些我們不太有信心最終能夠完成的交易。當然，在削減這些交易的同時，我們也減少了一些已經簽約的球員的薪水。因此，我們第一季的整體專案儲備成長略有放緩。至於刪除的內容，每一個都有其獨特的故事。我認為我已經查看了 2018 年第一季退出系統的每一家酒店。許多飯店繳納的費用不多，這並不令人意外，部分原因是它們要么接近合約到期，要么競爭力不足，或者參與的市場面臨更大的壓力，或者在某種程度上，因為它們沒有繳納應有的份額，所以我們不太希望它們繼續留在系統中。所有這些因素都會影響到這個計算結果。但我認為綜合考慮所有因素，我們仍然看到專案儲備出現了一些小幅成長。我們將繼續保持 5.5% 至 6% 的淨單位成長率，今年我們將比去年開設更多客房。去年我們開設的門市數量比前年多。我估計明年我們開放的客房數量會比 2018 年多。

And then can I just -- as a follow-up, I wanted to ask you, on your Tribute portfolio, you mentioned you're testing it. I guess, how long would you be testing before you sort of enter in a more formal way into this business? And I mean, what kind of scope do you think this could reach over a few years and just to be a more meaningful piece of earnings over time?

然後，我能否——作為後續問題，我想問一下，在您的 Tribute 作品集中，您提到您正在測試它。我想，在你正式進入這個行業之前，你會先進行多久的測試呢？我的意思是，你認為在未來幾年內，這項業務能發展到什麼程度，最終成為更有意義的收益來源？

Well, we're going to take this a step at a time. I think within a few months, we should be able to learn considerable lessons from what we're doing in London. And if it goes well, and we're quite optimistic it will, we'll look at extending that to other cities. Our plan for timesharing -- or for home sharing, excuse me, is to learn as we go here a little bit. But we want to make sure we are delivering a high-quality service experience. And we want to make sure we're delivering whole homes so that it is, if you will, the higher end of the market. It's a place where branding can make a difference. It's a place where we can deliver an experience both in terms of service and quality that we want our customers to have. And it's a place where we can feel really good about connecting it to the loyalty program. Now by the way, in the whole home space, it's also meaningfully different from a standard hotel room, which makes it a more comfortable place for us to add. But I think we'll watch this as we go. We'll obviously keep you posted on the way this is developing. But we're off to a great start in the first few weeks that we've been engaged with this in London. We're getting great response from our customers, and we feel good about it.

好，我們會一步一步來。我認為幾個月之內，我們應該能夠從我們在倫敦的做法中學到很多經驗教訓。如果進展順利（我們對此非常樂觀），我們將考慮將其推廣到其他城市。我們分時度假的計劃——或者更準確地說，是房屋共享的計劃——是邊走邊學。但我們希望確保提供高品質的服務體驗。我們希望確保交付的是整套住宅，從而達到高端市場的標準。在這裡，品牌可以發揮重要作用。在這裡，我們可以提供我們希望客戶擁有的服務和品質體驗。而且，在這裡我們可以很放心地將它與會員計劃聯繫起來。順便一提，就整個家居空間而言，它也與標準酒店房間有著顯著的不同，這使得它成為我們更願意添置家具的舒適場所。但我認為我們會邊走邊看。我們會隨時向您報告事態發展。但在倫敦參與這項工作的最初幾周里，我們取得了良好的開端。我們收到了客戶的正面回饋，對此我們感到非常欣慰。

Your next question comes from Robin Farley of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

I wanted to ask on 2 things. First is on corporate negotiated rates. I wonder if you could talk about where you expect them to come in for the year in terms of the percent increase. And also, were a lot of those negotiations done before you saw the improvement in business travel that now you've seen in Q1? In other words, are those maybe at rates that wouldn't reflect where you'd want them to be for the year? And then I also had a question on margins, which was just that looking at your North American margin was basically flat with 2% RevPAR growth. And I wanted to ask how sustainable that is. You talked about some of the cost saves from the combination and kind of that 50 basis points that, that would add hopefully this year as well. Is that enough to keep margins flat at 2% RevPAR growth?

我想問兩件事。首先是企業協商價格。我想請您談談您預計他們今年的成長百分比會是多少。另外，很多談判都是在你看到第一季商務旅行出現改善之前進行的嗎？換句話說，這些利率是否可能低於您預期的年度利率水準？然後我還有一個關於利潤率的問題，那就是，從你們北美市場的利潤率來看，基本上持平，而每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 僅增長了 2%。我想問的是，這種做法的可持續性如何。您談到了合併帶來的成本節約，以及那 50 個基點的節省，希望今年也能如此。這樣足以將利潤率維持在2%的RevPAR成長率嗎？

Leeny will take the margin question here, but let me make a couple of comments on the special corporate rates. We had the special corporate rate growth of about 3% in Q1, which all things considered, is not bad. I think your second question is fair, though. Obviously, we negotiate special corporate accounts typically in the fall. And to the extent that we are more optimistic about the economy collectively now than we were in the fall, we presumably could do a bit better in those negotiations if they were happening today than we did last fall. But that's hardly a stark difference. And just let's take a reminder here. I think the Marriott is performing extraordinarily well. Marriott's business model is performing extraordinarily well. We feel meaningfully better about our prospects today than we did a quarter ago. But we're still talking about 2% to 3% RevPAR growth in the U.S. for full year 2018. We're not changing numbers to sort of a mid- to high single-digit number, which obviously is something we've seen in some prior economic environments. And of course, that 2% to 3% RevPAR growth, that continues to put a premium on making sure we're driving rates. And now for Leeny, making sure what we can on the cost side.

Leeny 將在這裡回答利潤率問題，但我想就特殊的公司利率發表幾點看法。第一季我們獲得了約 3% 的特殊企業稅率成長，考慮到各種因素，這還不錯。我認為你的第二個問題很合理。顯然，我們通常在秋季洽談特殊的企業客戶。鑑於我們現在對經濟的整體樂觀程度比去年秋天要高，如果這些談判今天舉行，我們或許能比去年秋天取得更好的結果。但這算不上什麼顯著的差異。我們再來回顧一下。我認為萬豪酒店的表現非常出色。萬豪酒店的商業模式表現非常出色。與三個月前相比，我們現在對前景的信心明顯增強。但我們仍認為 2018 年美國每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的成長率將達到 2% 至 3%。我們不會把數字改成個位數中高段位，這顯然是我們以前在某些經濟環境下看到的情況。當然，2%到3%的RevPAR成長，也讓我們更重視確保房價上漲。現在輪到 Leeny 了，我們要確保在成本方面做到最好。

So on the margin side, Robin, you look at Q1 at 1.4% managed RevPAR growth, that was absolutely entirely -- essentially entirely from rate, which does help us to the extent of trying to hold on to as much margin as we can. However, we have typically thought about needing about 3% RevPAR growth to hold on to margin. And from that standpoint, with the synergies that we're getting from the Starwood acquisition, I think that number is probably a little bit better. But I think to assume 2% and flat margins, that would be a great goal to shoot for that we obviously would try to do. But it would be right at the edge of being able to hold on to margin, including the synergy benefits to be able to do that.

所以，羅賓，從利潤率的角度來看，第一季管理的每間可供出租客房收入增長了 1.4%，這完全——基本上完全來自房價，這確實有助於我們盡可能地保持利潤率。然而，我們通常認為需要約 3% 的 RevPAR 成長才能維持利潤率。從這個角度來看，考慮到我們從收購喜達屋酒店集團中獲得的協同效應，我認為這個數字可能會稍微好一點。但我認為，假設收益率為 2%，利潤率保持不變，這將是一個很好的目標，我們顯然會努力實現這個目標。但即便如此，也很難保住利潤率，更別提實現利潤率所需的綜效了。

Your next question comes from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

This is [Dariu Ushan] for Shaun. So following up on Smedes' question on net unit growth. Looking out to 2019, do you think net unit growth could actually reaccelerate as elevated deletions from Starwood subside? And to what extent do you see rising cost across the construction environment as an offset?

這是肖恩的[Dariu Ushan]。接下來，我將跟進 Smedes 關於淨單位成長的問題。展望 2019 年，您認為隨著喜達屋酒店集團大量撤出客房的趨勢消退，淨入住率成長是否會再次加速？您認為建築業成本上漲在多大程度上可以抵銷這種影響？

This is the danger about speculating already and then answer your question about maybe having more openings in 2019 than 2018. I think we will -- we think that's possible because you just look at the pipeline and look at the years in which we signed the deals, we will have more hotels coming out of that development pipeline in 2019 than in 2018. So I think the gross openings globally could well be higher next year than they are this year. In terms of deletions, that's -- it's probably too much to ask for at the moment. We are -- I'll anticipate maybe a question, talking about Sheraton for a second, we are making really good progress with the Sheraton brand. We've talked to you in the past few quarters about the -- focusing first on the lowest 25 hotels and then the lowest 50 hotels in the U.S. If you look at the lowest 100 hotels in the U.S., which is really half of the Sheraton portfolio, nearly 3/4 of those are well on their way to being resolved. A handful of those leaving the system, most of them being renovated or will be renovated before long. Now it will take 1 year or 2 to get those renovations done, but we feel really good about the way that is continuing to move. We'll have to give you, as we get closer to 2019, a better sense for deletions next year. But I would think that the 1% to 1.5% deletion is the kind of number you should expect steady state, not necessarily a material change from that. And then the last thing hinted at in your question was really about construction delays. We are seeing really tight construction markets. Obviously, that is about labor, but it's also about a lot of what is going on in the construction space. You've got, both in Florida and Texas, significant hurricane recovery work underway. You've got some infrastructure work that is happening across the United States. And you've got a fairly robust real estate business. And all of that is putting pressure on construction resources, which makes construction both a bit more expensive and has to take a little bit longer. The other thing that we're seeing in our pipeline is we have -- a few years ago, we would have skewed a bit more towards a prototypical suburban limited-service hotel. I think today, even in our limited-service pipeline, we're seeing more of that be custom, more of that be urban. And those projects obviously take longer to get completed than the prototypical suburban construction. The good news in all of this is the projects are moving forward. And so while they get stretched out a little bit, we know they're coming and we know they'll open up into the system.

這就是現在就進行推測的危險之處，然後再回答你關於 2019 年職位空缺是否會比 2018 年多的問題。我認為我們會——我們認為這是有可能的，因為你只要看看我們的項目儲備，看看我們簽署協議的年份，就會發現 2019 年從這些開發項目中出來的酒店數量將比 2018 年更多。所以我認為明年全球新片開盤總額很可能會高於今年。至於刪除操作，那——目前來說可能要求太高了。我預料可能會有人問，關於喜來登酒店，我們想說的是，我們在喜來登品牌方面取得了非常好的進展。在過去的幾個季度裡，我們曾與您討論過——首先是關注美國排名最低的 25 家酒店，然後是排名最低的 50 家酒店。如果您看一下美國排名最低的 100 家酒店（實際上佔喜來登酒店集團的一半），其中近四分之三的酒店問題都已有效解決。少數建築將退出該系統，其中大部分建築正在翻新或不久後將進行翻新。現在這些翻修工程需要一到兩年的時間才能完成，但我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意。隨著 2019 年的臨近，我們將不得不向大家提供明年刪除內容的更準確資訊。但我認為，1%到1.5%的削減幅度應該是穩定狀態的預期數字，而不是實質的改變。最後，你問題中暗示的最後一件事實際上是關於施工延誤的。我們看到建築市場非常緊張。顯然，這關乎勞動力，但也關乎建築領域正在發生的許多事情。佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州都正在進行大量的颶風災後重建工作。美國各地正在進行一些基礎建設工作。而且你的房地產業務相當穩健。所有這些都給建築資源帶來了壓力，導致建築成本略有增加，工期也略有延長。我們在專案規劃中看到的另一點是——幾年前，我們可能會更傾向於典型的郊區有限服務酒店。我認為，即使在我們有限的服務範圍內，如今我們也看到越來越多的客製化服務，越來越多的城市服務。而且這些計畫的完工時間顯然比典型的郊區建設計畫還要長。好消息是，這些項目都在前進。所以，雖然它們可能會被拉長一些，但我們知道它們會到來，我們也知道它們會融入系統中。

And just as a quick follow-up probably for Leeny. Looking at G&A and the expected $70 million of expense related to employee profit share matching in 2018, can G&A in 2019 actually be down in absolute dollars? Or does inflation put you closer to flat to up?

還有一點要補充說明，可能是給Leeny的。考慮到 2018 年的 G&A 費用以及與員工利潤分享匹配相關的預計 7000 萬美元支出，2019 年的 G&A 費用真的有可能下降嗎？或者說，通貨膨脹會讓你更傾向於持平或上漲？

Yes. So we're getting ahead of ourselves as we think about 2019. But I think a more kind of classic steady-state G&A by the time we get to '19 is fair. So if you obviously think about a number that is -- when you're thinking about without the $70 million, you're looking at a $875 million sort of number that then you would argue that, that could potentially be lower than the printed number of the $945 million in 2018.

是的。所以，我們現在考慮2019年的事情就有點超前了。但我認為，到 2019 年，G&A 達到更經典的穩定狀態是合理的。所以，如果你考慮一下這個數字——當你考慮不計入 7000 萬美元時，你看到的是一個 8.75 億美元的數字，那麼你可能會認為，這個數字可能低於 2018 年公佈的 9.45 億美元。

Your next question comes from the line of David Beckel of Bernstein Research.

你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的戴維‧貝克爾。

I just wanted to, Arne, ask you about conversations you've been having. Clearly, the business environment is looking up. I'm wondering, is that more to do with actual cash in the coffers increasing because of the tax reform or more about expectations of forward economic growth improving?

阿恩，我只是想問你最近在跟別人聊些什麼。顯然，商業環境正在好轉。我想知道，這更多是由於稅制改革導致國庫實際現金增加，還是更多是因為對未來經濟成長的預期改善？

I think they are related, to some extent, and the answer is both. We -- obviously, we talk to a lot of our customers who participate in the economy in every industry.

我認為它們在某種程度上是相關的，答案是兩者都是。顯然，我們會與各行各業參與經濟活動的眾多客戶進行交流。

And I think from the time tax reform act was passed, you've seen a step-up in optimism. And the query we often give to our customers is, is it just optimism or are you actually seeing improved business conditions? And it's a majority that say, "No, no, no. We're actually seeing improved business conditions. And we are actually making decisions, which are more -- which are the effect of our more bullish impact -- it's not simply about attitude but it's about things that are actually happening." Now to be fair, you look at earnings growth across the industry, look at first quarter results across the U.S. corporate sector, and you see great earnings growth. A big chunk of that is tax and people are paying less in tax, and therefore, their earnings are moving. But you're seeing, more often than not, you're also seeing companies report revenue growth. And that's something that has been missing from the last few years of our economic recovery. So you put all those things together, and it does seem like we are in a, again, a meaningfully better place in the economy than just 3 or 6 months ago.

我認為自從稅制改革法案通過以來，人們的樂觀情緒已經上升。我們常問客戶的問題是：這只是樂觀情緒，還是你們真的看到了業務狀況的改善？大多數人會說：“不，不，不。”實際上，我們看到商業環境正在改善。我們實際上正在做出一些決策，這些決策更體現了我們更樂觀的態度——這不僅僅關乎態度，而是關乎實際發生的事情。 「公平地說，如果你看看整個產業的獲利成長，看看美國企業第一季的業績，你會發現獲利成長非常強勁。其中很大一部分是稅收，人們繳納的稅款減少了，因此他們的收入也隨之下降。但你也會經常看到，公司報告收入成長。而這正是我們近年來經濟復甦所缺乏的。所以把所有這些因素綜合起來，我們目前的經濟狀況似乎確實比3個月或6個月前有了顯著改善。

That's helpful. And as a quick follow-up, just on the home- sharing agreement, just to follow up on the last question. What is it that ultimately got you over the hump? I feel like you've been analyzing that opportunity for quite a while, so I'd love to know what finally got you to decide to put your -- get your feet wet. And secondarily, it sounds like you're pretty optimistic about what you'll find. Is there any circumstance in which you decide not to move ahead with this arrangement?

那很有幫助。最後，我想快速補充一下關於房屋共享協議的問題，以回應上一個問題。最終是什麼讓你克服了難關？我覺得你已經分析這個機會很久了，所以我很想知道是什麼最終促使你決定試水。其次，聽起來你對將會發現的東西相當樂觀。是否存在某種情況，讓你決定不繼續推進這項安排？

Well, let's take the last one first. There's -- of course, until we complete this first test, we're not going to make any definitive decisions. We wouldn't have made the test unless we felt like it was likely to lead to a positive outcome, however. And so we are hopeful that we'll find stuff here that confirms our suspicion and we'll move forward. We've obviously watched this space for the last number of years. We've been asked by all of you about the impact of this space and what it means. There are a couple of general comments I'd make. Seeing many of the folks who started in this business started with a business model, which fundamentally did not comply with law in most -- in many, I should say, cities and states and countries. And it's one thing for a start-up to engage in a business that really does not comply with law, it'd be another thing altogether for a 90-year-old company like Marriott to step into a business, which is fundamentally illegal. And as a consequence, one of the reasons we didn't jump into this quickly is we thought this is a business that is not made for us. We have now figured out that we can run this business in a way that does fully comply with law. It will include payment of lodging taxes so that it's a level playing field with the hotel business. It will very much include complying with local regulatory requirements on number of nights homes can be let in this way and make that work. I think the other thing that we've observed is that as some of these platforms have grown into millions and millions of units, there is a -- almost a paralyzing array of choices and the lack of branding and the lack of real attributes of quality around service and product, makes this an area where we think we can bring our brands, we can bring our service and product focus and deliver something which is simply a better product than much of what is out there. And then, of course, lastly, we think there's a strong loyalty connection, which obviously can be helpful here. The home-sharing business skews overwhelmingly to leisure travel, not to business travel. The loyalty space obviously, particularly around redemptions, but it could be around point earning as well is, we think, an advantage we've got that should bode us well in the space.

好，我們先來看最後一個。當然，在完成第一次測試之前，我們不會做出任何最終決定。然而，除非我們認為這項測試很可能帶來正面的結果，否則我們是不會進行這項測試的。因此，我們希望在這裡找到能夠證實我們懷疑的東西，然後我們將繼續推進調查。過去幾年，我們一直密切關注著這一領域。大家一直在問我們這個空間的影響和意義。我有一些總體性的意見想提出。我發現許多從事這個行業的人一開始就採用了一種商業模式，這種模式從根本上來說不符合大多數——應該說是很多城市、州和國家的法律。對於一家新創公司來說，從事不合法的業務是一回事；而對於像萬豪酒店這樣擁有 90 年歷史的公司來說，涉足從根本上來說就是非法的業務，則完全是另一回事。因此，我們沒有迅速進入這個行業的原因之一是，我們認為這個行業不適合我們。我們現在已經找到一種完全合法經營這家企業的方法。其中包括繳納住宿稅，以便與酒店業在公平的競爭環境中競爭。這其中很大一部分將包括遵守當地關於房屋以這種方式出租的晚數的監管要求，並使之有效。我認為我們觀察到的另一點是，隨著一些平台的用戶數量增長到數百萬，出現了令人眼花繚亂的選擇，而且缺乏品牌，服務和產品也缺乏真正的品質屬性。因此，我們認為我們可以在這個領域引入我們的品牌，專注於我們的服務和產品，並提供比市面上大多數產品更好的產品。最後，當然，我們認為存在著強烈的忠誠度聯繫，這顯然會對此有所幫助。房屋共享業務主要面向休閒旅遊，而非商務旅遊。顯然，忠誠度領域，特別是兌換方面，但也可能包括積分賺取方面，我們認為，這是我們的優勢，應該會讓我們在這個領域取得好成績。

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

This is Brandt on for Joe. So I just wanted to follow up on the managed hotels margin discussion, maybe take it one step further. So looking forward, you have group commission rates going lower, right? You're rolling out a cohesive loyalty program later on in the year, and then there's other costs that are lower for your owners, given scale-related synergies. So to what extent are each of these factors embedded into your IMF forecast?

這是布蘭特替喬上場。所以我想就飯店管理利潤率的討論做個後續探討，或許可以更進一步。所以展望未來，你們的團隊佣金率會降低，對嗎？您將在今年稍後推出統一的忠誠度計劃，而且由於規模相關的協同效應，您的所有者的其他成本也會降低。那麼，這些因素在多大程度上都納入了您的國際貨幣基金組織預測中？

I would say generally, they are. Obviously, we will always try to hope to do better. But as we also talked about, there's the reality of labor cost increases that are also a major element this year in our managed hotels, particularly in the U.S. So I would say that they are broadly included. The one thing I'd also say is interesting is that for this year, we're actually -- I would expect by the time we get for the full year that 2/3, almost 2/3 of our IMFs will be from international hotels. And there again, that -- particularly in Asia Pacific, it's much more driven by what's going on with RevPAR since there aren't owner priority returns there. And that will be an interesting thing to watch. And I think you saw that clearly in Q1 with the outperformance in incentive fees with the very strong outperformance in Asia Pacific. And that we similarly saw the 1/3, 2/3 split in IMFs in Q1.

總的來說，我認為是的。當然，我們始終會努力做得更好。但正如我們之前討論過的，勞動成本上漲也是今年我們管理的飯店面臨的一個主要因素，尤其是在美國。所以我認為，勞動成本上漲的影響已被廣泛考慮。我還要說一件有趣的事情是，今年我們實際上——我預計到全年結束時，我們近三分之二的國際貨幣基金組織收入將來自國際酒店。再說一遍，尤其是在亞太地區，由於沒有業主優先回報，所以 RevPAR 的走勢對市場的影響更大。那將會是一件很有趣的事情，值得觀察。我認為您在第一季已經清楚地看到了這一點，亞太地區的激勵費用表現尤為出色。同樣，我們在第一季也看到了國際貨幣基金組織 1/3 和 2/3 的分裂。

The other point to keep in mind is the group commissions reduction took effect for bookings after April 1, 2018. 90-plus percent of all group bookings for 2018 are on the books prior to that, maybe even closer to 95% if you think of as of April 1. So the commission reduction is not likely to have much of an impact in 2018. That will build over the years ahead as more new bookings get made.

另一點需要注意的是，團體佣金減免政策適用於 2018 年 4 月 1 日之後的預訂。2018 年所有團體預訂中，超過 90% 的預訂都在此之前就已經完成，如果從 4 月 1 日算起，這個比例甚至可能接近 95%。因此，佣金削減不太可能對 2018 年產生太大影響。隨著未來幾年新訂單的增加，這種情況會逐漸改善。

Got it. That's helpful color. And then a follow-up or a second question. Which corporate customer segments are growing the fastest for you guys besides what you mentioned, the oil patch? And can you differentiate between volume and price?

知道了。這是個很有幫助的顏色。然後還有一個後續問題或第二個問題。除了你們提到的石油業之外，還有哪些企業客戶群成長最快？你能區分數量和價格嗎？

Well, in general, we're pleased with the price overall, I will say. From a rate perspective, we just generally feel good. I think when you're talking about fundamental business, we continue to see oil and gas, from a percentage increase basis, right at the top. But then for very steady kind of above-average professional services and technology, I would put at the top of the list. We still continue to see good numbers for financial services but not like the professional services and the technology and the oil and gas.

總的來說，我們對這個價格總體上是滿意的。從利率角度來看，我們整體感覺良好。我認為，從基本面來看，石油和天然氣產業，以百分比成長而言，仍然名列前茅。但是，對於非常穩定且高於平均水平的專業服務和技術而言，我會把它放在首位。金融服務業的數據依然良好，但不如專業服務業、科技業以及石油和天然氣產業。

Your next question comes from Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

I apologize in advance, it's a little bit of a devil's advocate question here. But as we think about your financial projection going forward, it seems that with the changes in the rewards program, a little bit of evaluation of the Starwood side of things. How do we think about customer attrition from the Starwood loyalty customers in that regard going forward?

我先道個歉，這個問題有點像是在唱反調。但當我們考慮您未來的財務預測時，隨著獎勵計劃的變化，似乎需要對喜達屋方面進行一些評估。從這個角度來看，我們該如何看待喜達屋忠誠客群的流失問題？

Well, the response we've gotten from Marriott and Starwood customers has been overwhelmingly positive. And remember, what goes into this calculation for every customer is -- starts with the value of the program. And the value of the program really is about both points-earning and where can I use those points. We have, with the new credit cards, a powerful supercharged approach to collecting points. We have, with the points earned for hotel stays, maintained, if not increased, the value to the customers, including the SPG customers. And as a consequence, we think that the value equation looks very good. There is a huge advantage to all of the customers in that now with one loyalty program, it will be much easier to earn elite status and the breadth of choice for redemptions as well is simpler. And so think about the comparison to the airline industry, if you will. Depending on where you all live, that is one of the significant factors that goes into which airline you tend to prefer. Because if you're in Dallas, you're going to likely be an American person. If you're in Atlanta, you're likely to be Delta. If you're in Washington, you're probably more likely to be in United. We don't have that weakness in the sense that we are able to offer places to stay in 127 different countries around the world. We offer more choice than any other hotel loyalty program. And as a consequence, both on the earnings side and the redemption side, it is a pretty powerful tool. And lastly, and I hinted at this a bit in the prepared remarks, but when you look at, "Okay, do I want to earn all these points?" One of the answers is, what can I use them for. And when you look at our distribution in the higher end of the market, luxury, lifestyle, resort destinations, the redemption options are dramatically better than any of our competitors. I think you roll all those things together and we are very optimistic that we will increase our share of wallet, not see any decrease in share of wallet of our loyalty customers. And we'll continue to grow that customer community from the 110 million or so that we're at today to a substantially bigger number.

我們從萬豪和喜達屋的客戶那裡得到的回饋非常積極。請記住，對於每個客戶而言，這項計算的依據是－首先是專案的價值。而該計劃的價值實際上在於如何賺取積分以及如何使用這些積分。借助新的信用卡，我們擁有了一種強大的積分累積方式。我們透過飯店住宿獲得的積分，維持了（甚至提高了）客戶（包括 SPG 客戶）的價值。因此，我們認為價值等式看起來非常好。對於所有顧客來說，一個巨大的優勢是，現在只需一個會員計劃，就能更容易地獲得精英會員資格，而且兌換選擇也更加豐富便捷。所以，不妨想想它與航空業的比較。你們居住的地方是影響你們選擇哪家航空公司的重要因素之一。因為如果你身在達拉斯，那你很可能就是美國人。如果你在亞特蘭大，你很可能會搭乘的是達美航空。如果你在華盛頓，你很可能搭乘的是美聯航。我們沒有這方面的弱點，因為我們能夠在世界各地 127 個不同的國家提供住宿。我們提供的選擇比任何其他酒店會員計劃都多。因此，無論從收益方面還是贖回方面來看，它都是一個非常強大的工具。最後，我在準備的發言稿中也稍微提到過這一點，那就是，當你思考「我是否想要獲得所有這些積分？」時，其中一個答案是，我可以用它們做什麼。當你審視我們在高端市場、奢侈品、生活方式、度假勝地的分銷情況時，你會發現我們的兌換選擇比任何競爭對手都要好得多。我認為綜合所有這些因素，我們非常樂觀地認為，我們將提高客戶錢包份額，而不會看到忠誠客戶錢包份額的任何下降。我們將繼續擴大客戶群，從目前的約 1.1 億人成長到更大的數字。

Your next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So we see the cost synergies in the SG&A line, but is there a way to quantify if you've captured any revenue synergies so far? And as we think about those revenue synergies spooling up following loyalty and reservation integration, where should we see evidence of that? Is it mostly just the RevPAR line? And if so, should we expect that you'll outperform on RevPAR in the following years just from those synergies?

我們看到銷售、一般及行政費用方面的成本綜效，但是有沒有辦法量化到目前為止是否已經實現了任何收入綜效呢？當我們思考忠誠度和預訂整合後產生的收入綜效時，我們應該在哪裡看到這方面的證據呢？主要就是RevPAR這條線嗎？如果真是如此，我們是否可以預期，僅憑這些協同效應，您在未來幾年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 就能超過競爭對手？

Well, the RevPAR index, which we actually, I think as a lodging-focused investment community, probably don't talk about as much as maybe we should. RevPAR index is the single measure that cuts through geographic distribution, cuts through reliance on group business, cuts through chain scale and allows us to say, "How are you competing against the market?" And one of the reasons we don't talk about it as much is because it's not published in a way that allows you to see it quickly. You see the industry prognosticators reporting RevPAR. You see the companies reporting RevPAR. And we'll often talk about index but we may not always talk about index. And if we talk about index, you can't necessarily pierce through what it is we're saying to have your own source of data for it. When we look at our performance from the time we closed the Starwood acquisition, so we're about 1.5 years in, we've been gratified to see that we have taken index steadily, albeit modestly, in those 6 quarters or so. And in some respects, it's not surprising because we haven't yet merged those loyalty programs, and we're just completing the merging of the sales and revenue management teams. And those are the kinds of things that are most likely to drive the share of wallet. But it's been pretty positive, nevertheless, because you would also expect pulling 2 big companies like this together and 2 sales forces and the uncertainty that comes from that, that there could be some distraction or some other things, which would actually cause a dip in relative performance. And we didn't -- we haven't seen that and we've seen good strength. As we get into the merging of these loyalty programs, which really is an August and later 2018 event, we are optimistic that we will see an increase of share of wallet, and that should translate into index growth. And of course, we'll be talking about index growth as those numbers get put in the books. I think the other thing we look at, of course, is the strength of the credit card programs. We know already, based on the negotiations we've done with Chase and Amex, that they are as excited as we are about the power of this platform. And we see that in the terms of the deals we've negotiated with them, but we also see that in the way we talk with them about the opportunities we have together to grow this program. And obviously, we'll be talking about the contribution to the system and to us from those credit card programs in the years ahead.

嗯，RevPAR 指數，我認為我們作為一個專注於酒店業的投資群體，可能沒有像我們應該做的那樣經常談論它。RevPAR 指數是唯一能夠超越地理分佈、超越集團業務依賴、超越連鎖規模的衡量指標，它讓我們能夠問：「你如何與市場競爭？」我們不常談論它的原因之一是，它的發布方式不夠便捷，無法讓人快速查看。你會看到產業預測機構發布RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）報告。你可以看到各公司公佈的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）。我們經常談到指數，但我們可能不會總是談到指數。如果我們談論索引，你可能無法理解我們所說的內容，從而擁有自己的資料來源。從我們完成對喜達屋的收購至今（大約 1.5 年），回顧我們的業績，我們欣慰地看到，在這 6 個季度左右的時間裡，我們穩步實現了指數增長，儘管增長幅度不大。從某種程度上來說，這並不奇怪，因為我們還沒有合併這些忠誠度計劃，而且我們才剛完成銷售和收入管理團隊的合併。而這些正是最可能影響消費者錢包份額的因素。但儘管如此，結果還是相當積極的，因為你也會預料到，將兩家這樣的大公司和兩支銷售團隊合併在一起，會帶來一些不確定性，可能會出現一些幹擾或其他情況，這實際上會導致相對業績下降。我們沒有——我們沒有看到這種情況，但我們看到了強大的實力。隨著這些忠誠度計劃的合併（這實際上是 2018 年 8 月及以後發生的事情），我們樂觀地認為，錢包份額將會增加，這應該會轉化為指數的增長。當然，隨著相關數據的公佈，我們也會討論指數成長情況。我認為我們還要考慮的另一點，當然是信用卡專案的實力。根據我們與 Chase 和 Amex 的談判，我們已經知道他們和我們一樣對這個平台的強大功能感到興奮。我們從與他們談判達成的協議條款中可以看出這一點，也從我們與他們討論共同發展這個計畫的機會的方式中可以看出這一點。顯然，在未來的幾年裡，我們將討論這些信用卡項目對整個體係以及我們個人的貢獻。

And I just want to add onto that, which is from the standpoint of the credit cards that Arne's talking about, remember that the credit card fees is just one component of the growth that we've got. We were able, through the renegotiation of this combined company, credit card arrangement to also increase the benefits to the customers as well as increase benefits to the owners and also increase benefits to the shareholders.

我只想補充一點，從 Arne 所說的信用卡角度來看，請記住，信用卡費用只是我們成長的一個組成部分。透過對這家合併後公司的信用卡安排進行重新談判，我們得以增加客戶的利益，增加所有者的利益，並增加股東的利益。

Got it, that's very helpful. And then just as my follow-up, you talked about the strength in the Asia Pacific region. Is your relationship with Alibaba translating into that performance right now? Or is this -- the strength you're seeing mostly just other factors, be it demand or other issues? And then are you seeing more willingness from Chinese consumers to move up the chain scale? Is that helping you at all?

明白了，這很有幫助。然後，作為我的後續問題，您談到了亞太地區的優勢。你與阿里巴巴的關係目前是否已轉化為業績成長？或者，你看到的這種強勁勢頭主要只是其他因素造成的，例如需求或其他問題？那麼，您是否看到中國消費者越來越願意轉向更高層次的消費群體？這樣對你有幫助嗎？

Well, there is -- the data from the Chinese traveler is uniformly positive. And remember, we've got -- think about within China first, maybe. In Shanghai, we must have something like 40 hotels open. Shanghai is the most international city in China. Our hotels are skewed dramatically towards the high-end. And the bulk of our business in our China hotels even in Shanghai is Chinese. Now that's business travel as well as leisure travel, but you're seeing that the Chinese are participating in the high-end of the market within China, and you're seeing the same thing in the China outbound markets. We're seeing good growth year-over-year. It is double-digit growth, Chinese volume to essentially every market around the world. Not surprisingly, the biggest markets for Chinese outbound travel are going to be nearer to China, Macao, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Thailand, to name a few, obviously -- Australia, to name a few obvious choices, but includes growth to Europe and growth to the United States as well. The Alibaba piece in -- we are certain it is contributing to us. It's hard for us to know exactly what percentage it's fueling. And that's something we will continue to watch with them as that JV platform gets more and more rolled out. We mentioned that some of these things are coming now -- Alipay but also the new storefront on Fliggy. And we are -- we did this for a reason. We think we can deliver real value to Alibaba's Chinese membership, about 500 million strong, and we can drive great results for us and it should be successful for both of us. Still a little bit early but I think it is clearly a positive.

確實有——來自中國遊客的數據一致是正面的。記住，我們還有──或許先想想中國國內的情況。在上海，我們應該有大約40家酒店在營業。上海是中國最具國際化的城市。我們的酒店嚴重偏向高端。即使在上海，我們在中國的酒店的大部分業務也來自中國客戶。現在，商務旅行和休閒旅行都包含在內，但你會發現中國人正在參與國內高端市場，在中國出境旅遊市場也看到了同樣的情況。我們看到業績年增好。這是兩位數的成長，中國產品銷往世界各地幾乎所有市場。不出所料，中國出境旅遊最大的市場將靠近中國大陸，例如澳門、香港、印尼、泰國等等——當然還有澳大利亞，但歐洲和美國的成長也不容忽視。阿里巴巴的加入－我們確信它對我們有所貢獻。我們很難確切地知道它提供了多少比例的燃料。隨著合資平台的不斷推廣，我們將繼續關注他們的發展。我們之前提到過，其中一些功能即將上線——支付寶，還有飛豬上的新店。我們這樣做是有原因的。我們認為我們可以為阿里巴巴約 5 億中國會員帶來真正的價值，我們可以為自己帶來巨大的成果，這對我們雙方都應該是成功的。現在說這些還為時過早，但我認為這顯然是個正面的訊號。

Your next question comes from the line of Stuart Gordon of Berenberg.

你的下一個問題來自貝倫貝格的斯圖亞特·戈登家族。

Just curious on your development pipeline and just on the chain scales. Would we be right in assuming that they're broadly similar as geographic splits or how about particularly the upper-upscale and luxury? Is it askew there to any particular region?

我只是對你們的開發流程以及區塊鏈規模感到好奇。我們是否可以假設它們在地理劃分上大致相似，或者特別是高端和奢侈品市場的情況呢？它是否偏向某個特定區域？

So let's -- somebody can pull the chart for me as we talk. But the -- we're right now, let's talk about our regions first. Right now, we are -- our existing hotels are about 2/3 in the United States and 1/3 outside the United States. And the pipeline is a bit more than half, not dramatically more than half, but a bit more than half outside the United States and about half in the United States. So we are, in the pipeline, skewing more than our existing distribution towards international markets. We mentioned in the prepared comments that our luxury and upper-upscale share there is substantial particularly when compared to the rest of the industry. But I think we are seeing globally the power of these select brands. And so any market in the world, including the United States but also including Asia, we are seeing that the Courtyards and Fairfields and ACs and Moxys are becoming very attractive to our [owning] partners. And so I suspect that the pipeline is also skewing a bit more to select-service than our existing distribution in like-for-like markets. Remember though that as we're going to more international, the international markets, in absolute terms, are more full-service in terms of the pipeline than the domestic ones. So that shift is probably not dramatic. (inaudible).

那麼，我們──誰能一邊跟我說話一邊幫我把圖表調出來呢？但是──我們現在，先來談談我們各自的地區。目前，我們現有的飯店約有 2/3 位於美國，1/3 位於美國以外。而且，這條輸油管有一半多一點，雖然沒有大幅度超過一半，但有一半多一點位於美國境外，大約一半位於美國境內。因此，我們正在規劃將現有分銷管道更多地轉向國際市場。我們在準備好的評論中提到，我們在該行業的奢侈品和高端市場份額相當可觀，尤其與業內其他公司相比。但我認為，我們正在全球範圍內看到這些精選品牌的強大影響力。因此，在世界任何市場，包括美國，也包括亞洲，我們都看到 Courtyard、Fairfield、AC 和 Moxy 等酒店對我們的（業主）合作夥伴變得非常有吸引力。因此，我懷疑管道的走向也比我們在同類市場中的現有分銷方式更偏向於精選服務。但請記住，隨著我們走向國際化，從絕對意義上講，國際市場在管道建設方面比國內市場提供更全面的服務。所以這種轉變可能不會很劇烈。（聽不清楚）

And just as a follow-up, I think in the prepared comments, you mentioned that leverage is now at the lower end of your leverage range. And you've also said that you have growing confidence in the economy. Should we be expecting that to migrate slightly up the way? Or are you more comfortable keeping it around about where it's just now through the next 12 months or so?

另外，我想補充一點，您在準備好的評論中提到，目前的槓桿率處於槓桿率範圍的下限。您也曾表示，您對經濟越來越有信心。我們是否應該預期它會稍微向上遷移？或者，您是否更傾向於讓它在接下來的 12 個月左右的時間內保持現狀？

We're comfortable -- we continue to be comfortable in the 3.0 to 3.25x range. The reality is with our continued asset sales and the various -- you can't always plan exactly when that cash is coming in. We have tended, over the last 4 quarters, to be down closer to the bottom end of the 3.0x. And the numbers that we actually gave in our guidance today, the modeling that we've used is actually at a 3.2x coverage. So I guess to your point, yes, I think we're comfortable as we think about managing it towards the higher part of the 3 to 3.25x but still obviously in that range.

我們對此感到滿意－我們繼續認為3.0倍至3.25倍的區間比較適合。現實情況是，隨著我們不斷出售資產以及各種其他因素——你不可能總是準確地計劃何時能收到現金。在過去的四個季度裡，我們的股價往往接近 3.0 倍的下限。而我們今天在指導意見中給出的數字，我們使用的模型，實際上是 3.2 倍的覆蓋率。所以，我想說的是，是的，我認為我們比較放心，因為我們正在考慮將其控制在 3 到 3.25 倍的較高範圍內，但顯然仍然在這個範圍內。

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research.

你的下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

So a longer-term question coming back to alternative accommodations. I think you mentioned some things changed regarding the legality as well as this kind of level playing field concept with regards to the hotel tax, both of which raised your interest today versus a couple of years ago. But those changes aside, I was just curious your perspective on where do you think consumer demand is at for alternative accommodations as well as the ability to browse for those stays, hotel and accommodation side-by-side. So I guess directly, if the sharing program in London were to go well, could we, at some point, see hotel product and home-sharing products side-by-side on marriott.com?

所以，從長遠來看，我們還是要回到替代住宿方案的問題。我認為你提到了一些關於酒店稅的合法性以及這種公平競爭環境概念方面的變化，這兩點都引起了你今天的興趣，與幾年前相比。但撇開這些變化不談，我只是好奇您認為消費者對替代住宿的需求如何，以及並排瀏覽這些住宿、酒店和住宿資訊的能力如何。所以我想直接來說，如果倫敦的共享計劃進展順利，我們是否有可能在某個時候在 marriott.com 上看到酒店產品和房屋共享產品並排展示呢？

Yes, I mean, already in the London pilot, essentially that is the case. If you search London, you can find a link to tribute homes and be able to do both. And the notion, of course, here is driven by -- it's our view -- I think it's probably fairly undebatable that giving folks more choice is a positive thing. It is what has driven us to not just acquire Starwood but to try and compete with 30 different brands and have the kind of choice within the hotel space. And here we can offer a bit more choice. But again, choice that has the kind of quality we want to have connected to our system. And we think by having that loyalty program and that breadth of choice, we drive strength of all elements within that portfolio and think we can do more of that in the years ahead.

是的，我的意思是，在倫敦的試點計畫中，情況基本上就是這樣。如果你搜尋倫敦，你可以找到紀念館的鏈接，然後你可以同時進行這兩項活動。當然，這裡的想法源自於──我們認為──給人們更多選擇是件好事，這一點應該沒什麼爭議。正是這種理念促使我們不僅收購了喜達屋，而且還嘗試與 30 個不同的品牌競爭，並在酒店領域提供多樣化的選擇。在這裡，我們可以提供更多選擇。但再次強調，我們需要的是一種能夠與我們的系統連結的、具有我們所期望的那種品質的選擇。我們認為，透過設立忠誠度計劃和提供廣泛的選擇，可以增強產品組合中所有要素的實力，並且我們認為在未來幾年我們可以在這方面做得更多。

Great. And then a second question on the fee guide. Impressive going to, I think, it's 11 or 12-ish, up about 300, 400 bps from the prior. I was curious, you mentioned RevPAR might be part of that move, higher units is relatively unchanged as is the credit card. Is it 1 point or 2 tailwind from FX? And then what type of headwind is there from non-hotel fees that you're kind of overcoming because when we add up the credit card, the FX, the RevPAR and the units, it almost seems to point to something in the teens.

偉大的。然後是關於費用指南的第二個問題。令人印象深刻，我認為大概在 11 或 12 左右，比前一交易日上漲了約 300、400 個基點。我很好奇，你提到RevPAR可能是這項舉措的一部分，而更高的銷售額和信用卡業務則相對保持不變。FX 的順風是 1 點還是 2 點？那麼，非飯店費用會帶來哪些不利影響，需要克服呢？因為當我們把信用卡費用、外匯費用、每間可供出租客房收入和客房數量加起來時，似乎最終會達到十幾美元。

So yes, so let's kind of run through those. First of all, you're right. FX is -- kind of go back to the broad view of 1 point of RevPAR, typically for us in the broadest sense, is typically about $35 million. So if you say, okay, we got about 1.5-point increase, that takes you up to over $50 million increase in fees. Then we've talked about an additional $25 million from FX. So roughly -- these are always hard because it depends on what happens with which currency. But just most broadly, a 1 percentage point change in the value of the dollar, assuming it happens evenly, gets you to about $11 million. And we've told you that our fee guidance has gone up $25 million relative to where we were before. So you've got the RevPAR, you've got the FX component. And then when you look at the non-credit card-related fees, the delta that we've talked about really overwhelmingly reflects the increase in the credit card fees. So if you remember now, app fees and timeshare fees are largely fixed. Application relicensing fees now have to be amortized over time so they don't jump up and down the way they used to when you were able to take them in from cash, so they're going to be pretty steady. And then residential branding fees are really a relatively smaller component. And while they may go up or down $5 million or $10 million, it's really the credit card, the $360 million to $380 million that overwhelmingly drives the growth in that section. And then the last point I'll make is that when we think of our classic rule of the $35 million for 1 point of RevPAR, when you see that the outperformance in RevPAR is in Asia Pacific, that's obviously going to skew a little bit higher towards the IMF side of things, given there's no owner priority. So I think that's part of what you're seeing is that we've increased our expected growth rate from IMFs fairly meaningfully as a result of the strong RevPAR performance, particularly in Asia Pacific.

是的，那我們就來逐一了解這些問題。首先，你說得對。外匯交易——讓我們回到廣義的觀點，1 個 RevPAR 點，通常對我們來說，在最廣泛的意義上，大約是 3500 萬美元。所以，如果你說，好吧，我們獲得了大約 1.5 個百分點的成長，那將導致費用增加超過 5000 萬美元。然後我們討論了FX提供的額外2500萬美元。所以大致來說——這些總是很難說，因為這取決於哪種貨幣會發生什麼變化。但總的來說，假設美元價值平均變動 1 個百分點，那麼美元價值的變動幅度約為 1,100 萬美元。我們已經告訴你們，我們的收費指導額比以前增加了 2500 萬美元。所以，你有了RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入），你有了FX（特效）組件。然後，當你查看非信用卡相關費用時，我們討論的差額實際上主要反映了信用卡費用的成長。所以如果你現在還記得的話，應用程式費用和分時度假費用基本上是固定的。現在申請重新許可費用必須分期攤銷，所以不會像以前用現金支付時那樣上下波動，因此會相當穩定。此外，住宅品牌推廣費用實際上只佔很小一部分。雖然這些數字可能會上下波動 500 萬或 1000 萬美元，但真正推動該部分增長的還是信用卡，其 3.6 億美元到 3.8 億美元的交易額。最後我想指出的是，當我們想到經典的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增加 1 個百分點需要 3500 萬美元的規則時，你會發現 RevPAR 的超額收益出現在亞太地區，考慮到沒有業主優先權，這顯然會稍微偏向國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 一方。所以我認為，你所看到的現象之一是，由於強勁的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）表現，特別是亞太地區的成長，我們大幅提高了國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）對成長率的預期。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛集團的史蒂芬‧格林布林。

Two questions. I guess, the first would be a follow-up on the credit card fees. Just to be clear, did you -- I guess, did you recognize, I guess, an equal contribution in the first quarter relative to what you'd expect over the course of the year? Or should it be steady over each quarter?

兩個問題。我想，首先應該跟進信用卡手續費的問題。為了確認一下，您是否—我想，您是否意識到，第一季的貢獻與您預期全年的貢獻相當？或者應該每季保持穩定？

You mean in the growth -- from a growth perspective year-over-year?

你是說成長方面──從成長角度來看，比去年同期而言？

I guess, I'm -- you can define it either as a contribution to growth or just absolute dollars.

我想，你可以把它定義為對成長的貢獻，或者只是絕對的金額。

In absolute, we talked about $87 million?

絕對值，我們討論的是8700萬美元？

$86 million in the first quarter.

第一季營收為 8,600 萬美元。

Yes, $86 million, and we've talked about $370 million for the whole year. So that would give you that it would actually -- which would make sense, as you would expect, it would grow a bit as you continue to see new cardholders and increased spend from consumers over time. But as we talked about before, again, the increase year-over-year is overwhelmingly driven by the increased terms in the agreement. But yes, you would expect it to grow during the year.

是的，8600萬美元，而我們全年討論的目標金額是3.7億美元。所以，這實際上會——正如你所預期的那樣——隨著新持卡人和消費者支出的不斷增加，隨著時間的推移，它會略有增長。但正如我們之前討論的那樣，同比上漲主要還是由於協議條款的增加所致。是的，它一年內一定會生長。

Makes sense, that's helpful. And then an unrelated follow-up. You've seen some changes in kind of search results through Google and other OTAs. I'm curious if you've seen any changes there that impacted your direct booking trends and any color you can provide on that campaign.

有道理，這很有幫助。然後又出現了一個無關的後續問題。您可能已經注意到，透過Google和其他線上旅行社（OTA）獲得的搜尋結果類型發生了一些變化。我很想知道您是否觀察到任何影響直接預訂趨勢的變化，以及您是否可以就該活動提供一些資訊。

No, I think we're seeing a good stickiness with our efforts to drive direct bookings. We're seeing good growth on our digital platforms and trying to move that forward. And obviously, those are the bag of features that we've talked about over the last few years -- member-only rates, some features that are available to loyalty members and not others. And I think as the loyalty program gets stickier and stronger with the credit card program, we should continue to see that those customers grow and those customers are much more inclined to book directly. And that's the case almost no matter what happens with the search algorithms or approach that some of these platforms are taking. If the customers know that it is clearly in their interest to book direct, they're going to find a way to book direct.

不，我認為我們在推動直接預訂方面取得了良好的結果。我們看到數位平台發展勢頭良好，並正努力推動這一趨勢繼續發展。顯然，這些就是我們在過去幾年一直在討論的一系列功能——會員專屬價格，以及一些只有忠誠會員才能享受的功能。我認為，隨著信用卡計劃的推廣和鞏固，忠誠度計劃的黏性和影響力不斷增強，我們應該會看到這些客戶數量持續增長，而這些客戶也更傾向於直接預訂。無論這些平台採取何種搜尋演算法或方法，情況幾乎都是如此。如果顧客知道直接預訂顯然符合他們的利益，他們就會想辦法直接預訂。

And have you provided the percentage that's booked through your app specifically and how that's growing?

你們有沒有具體提供透過你們的應用程式預訂的百分比以及這一比例的增長情況？

I don't know that we have and I'm not sure we will this morning. But the -- it won't surprise you that digital growth and the mobile growth as well as the app growth is very robust.

我不知道我們有沒有，也不確定今天早上會不會有。但是，數位成長、行動成長以及應用程式成長都非常強勁，這一點你肯定不會感到驚訝。

Overall, digital reservations are just a hair over 26% for the year 2017, anyway. Total direct would be 72% through a combination of digital and on property, including group bookings done on property and through the telephone.

整體而言，2017 年的數位化預訂率僅略高於 26%。直接預訂總額將佔 72%，透過數位管道和飯店內管道結合的方式實現，包括在飯店內和透過電話進行的團體預訂。

Your next question comes from the line of Felicia Hendrix of Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的費利西亞·亨德里克斯。

Just, Leeny, on the credit card branding fees, I was just wondering is there any way to grow that? For example, is there a language in the contracts that would allow you to benefit from upside if spending is greater than expected?

Leeny，關於信用卡品牌推廣費，我只是想知道有沒有辦法增加這部分收入？例如，合約中是否有條款允許您在支出超出預期時獲得額外收益？

Absolutely. Absolutely. But again, time will tell. We're introducing new cards. We just introduced the new Chase card. The new Amex card will come out in August. And from that perspective, we look forward to lots of folks signing up and using the card. But what's in this year's expectations of the $360 million to $380 million is a bit of a steady-as-she-goes cardholder usage and numbers of cardholders. And overwhelmingly, the increase related to 2017 is because of the new terms. But yes, there's increased usage absolutely over time.

絕對地。絕對地。但時間會證明一切。我們即將推出新卡。我們剛剛推出了新的 Chase 信用卡。新的美國運通卡將於8月推出。從這個角度來看，我們期待很多人註冊並使用這張卡。但今年預計的 3.6 億美元至 3.8 億美元中，持卡人使用量和持卡人數量將保持相對穩定。2017 年的成長主要歸因於新條款。但沒錯，隨著時間的推移，使用量確實在增加。

Okay. But so far, just the $360 million to $380 million is representing the -- so there could be upside to that?

好的。但到目前為止，只有 3.6 億美元到 3.8 億美元代表了——所以這其中可能還有上漲空間？

Again, it all depends on behavior of consumers. It's kind of, I guess, I would call completely normal, not out of the ordinary sort of spend this year. But some normal growth because that's what we've seen, over the past few years, is some normal growth.

再次強調，這一切都取決於消費者的行為。我想，這應該算是今年非常正常的支出，並沒有什麼不尋常之處。但這是正常的成長，因為過去幾年我們看到的就是正常的成長。

Okay. And then, Arne, just a little bit earlier, you were talking about your -- the international part of your pipeline and how your exposure to international is better than your existing distribution. But just wondering if -- how we should think about that going forward. Do you think you could get that percentage to something even higher like in the 60s or even higher? And then also, you discussed the construction headwinds in the U.S. I'm just wondering if there's any headwinds in your any of our international regions to talk about. I know we've talked about China in the past so maybe that and anything else.

好的。然後，Arne，就在剛才，你談到了你的——你的通路中的國際部分，以及你對國際市場的拓展如何比你現有的通路更好。但我只是在想──我們今後該如何看待這個問題。你認為你能把這個百分比提高到更高的水平，例如60%甚至更高嗎？此外，您也談到了美國建築業面臨的逆風。我想知道，在我們其他國際地區，是否有任何逆風需要談談。我知道我們以前談過中國，所以也許可以聊聊中國以及其他一些事情。

I think we -- it's a good question. I think this is a sort of a longer-term question. But I suspect over time, we'll continue to see that international mix continuing to rise. It's a big world out there. Obviously, our distribution outside the U.S. is much lower in terms of percentage of the total industry than it is in the United States. And much of the rest of the world has got economic growth numbers and growth in the middle class numbers, which are more robust than the much more developed that exist in the United States. Obviously though, at the same time, we are -- we're big in the United States and we're gratified to see that we're continuing to grow in the United States. And we don't want to turn off our focus on seizing the opportunities that are available to us in this market. So you won't find us basically shutting down, if you will, our willingness to continue to grow in the United States. In terms of construction delays and the like in other parts of the world, nothing probably as dramatic as the United States. It tends to depend on the robustness of the economy around the world and whether any of those economies have, if you will, more demand for construction materials or construction labor than they have supply. And I think generally, that is much less the case in the rest of the world than it is here, certainly in terms of the material numbers. Now there are other factors that go into development in other parts of the world that can take a long time to get permits. There may be much less -- many more permits that are required in some markets. Sometimes, that development process is not very transparent, and we've obviously got to make sure that we and our partners are navigating that in a way which meets our standards. And so sometimes, that takes longer for us than it would in the United States. But generally, we're not seeing the deterioration, if you will, in the speed of the development process in the rest of the world.

我認為我們——這是一個很好的問題。我認為這是一個需要長期考慮的問題。但我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會看到這種國際化程度繼續提高。世界很大。顯然，我們在美國以外的市場份額（按佔整個行業的百分比計算）遠低於在美國的市場份額。世界其他許多地區的經濟成長數據和中產階級成長數據都比發達得多的美國更為強勁。但顯然，與此同時，我們在美國的業務規模很大，我們很高興地看到我們在美國的業務仍在繼續成長。我們不想放鬆對抓住這個市場機會的關注。所以，你不會看到我們基本上停止在美國繼續發展的意願。就世界其他地區的建築延誤等情況而言，可能沒有哪個地方像美國那麼嚴重。這往往取決於世界各地經濟的穩健程度，以及這些經濟體中是否有任何經濟體對建築材料或建築勞動力的需求大於其供應。而且我認為，總的來說，世界其他地方的情況遠不如這裡那麼普遍，尤其是在物質數量方面。現在，世界其他地區的發展也受到其他因素的影響，獲得許可可能需要很長時間。某些市場可能需要更多許可證，而實際數量可能要少得多。有時，開發過程並不十分透明，我們顯然必須確保我們和我們的合作夥伴以符合我們標準的方式來處理這個問題。所以有時候，這對我們來說比在美國需要更長的時間。但總的來說，我們並沒有看到世界其他地區的開發進程速度出現這種惡化。

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Crow of Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Bill Crow。

Speaking of development, it seems like your development partners in the United States have to be taking a haircut on expected returns, given the construction cost, the labor cost increases, higher financing costs, et cetera. I'm just wondering, are they coming to you for relief from a contract, help with financing? What are you hearing from the folks in the U.S.?

說到發展，考慮到建設成本、勞動成本上漲、融資成本上升等等，你們在美國的發展夥伴似乎不得不接受預期回報的縮水。我只是想知道，他們來找你是想解除合約糾紛，還是想尋求融資方面的協助？你從美國那邊聽到了什麼消息？

Yes, that's a pretty astute question, Bill. The -- I think we have seen -- I think you're right. I think we've seen the cost of land increase. We've seen the cost of construction increase. We've seen the development period, which also drives cost, obviously, during the development process, cost of capital particularly, increase. And I suppose we're now on the front edge of seeing the cost of debt increase with interest rates starting to move up. Debt still seems to be reasonably well available for -- certainly for experienced developers. And as a consequence, I think they can find the money to pursue this. I think at the same time, there is a strong sense that even though the returns may have -- maybe have gotten a little bit less, the returns are still fairly healthy compared to returns available in other real estate classes and maybe, to some extent, in other investment opportunities. And when you're looking at the select-service brands, particularly, there's less volatility in those -- the performance of those hotels. There's increased proof that those hotels can last and be competitive for a number of decades. You've got obviously lots of private platforms that are participating in this development process. And with the miracle of compounding, these are still pretty attractive deals. And I think as a consequence, that's why we're continuing to see the development pace be as strong as it is. The only last factor I'd put in there, Bill, is while RevPAR growth at 2% to 3%, now to use our numbers in the U.S., is not as -- I mean, we'd love to see it be 2 or 3x that size but it's not that robust. But nevertheless, the hotels, in absolute terms, are trading at really pretty good numbers. Good occupancies, good performance. And with the predictability that I talked about before, I think these are still investments which are attractive to folks.

是的，比爾，你問的這個問題非常精闢。——我想我們已經看到了——我想你是對的。我認為我們已經看到地價上漲了。我們已經看到建築成本上漲了。我們已經看到，在開發過程中，成本（尤其是資金成本）明顯增加，也推高了開發成本。我想我們現在正處於債務成本上升的前夕，因為利率開始上漲。對於經驗豐富的開發商來說，債務融資似乎仍然相當容易獲得。因此，我認為他們能夠找到資金來進行這項工作。我認為同時，人們強烈感覺到，儘管回報可能有所減少，但與其他房地產類別的回報相比，甚至在某種程度上與其他投資機會相比，這些回報仍然相當可觀。而當你專注於精選服務品牌時，尤其是這些飯店的業績波動性就較小。越來越多的證據表明，這些酒店可以持續經營數十年並保持競爭力。顯然有很多私營平台參與這個開發過程。再加上複利效應，這些交易仍然非常划算。我認為正因如此，我們才能繼續看到發展速度保持如此強勁。比爾，我最後要補充一點，雖然目前美國每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的增長率為 2% 到 3%，但這並不像——我的意思是，我們當然希望它能達到現在的 2 到 3 倍，但目前的情況並不樂觀。但儘管如此，從絕對值來看，這些飯店的經營狀況確實相當不錯。入住率高，業績好。正如我之前提到的，這些投資具有可預測性，我認為它們仍然對人們有吸引力。

No, that's fair. My follow-up, Arne, is whether there's any benefit to Marriott from the Marriott Vacation Club acquisition of ILG.

不，這很合理。Arne，我的後續問題是，萬豪度假俱樂部收購 ILG 對萬豪有什麼好處？

Generally, it will simplify things, and as a consequence, I think we're supportive of it. We've got good relationships with MVW and ILG. We had -- Leeny and team had already completed negotiations with both of those companies so that we were free to proceed with the merger of the loyalty programs and the websites and all the rest of it. So those restrictions were behind us. Nevertheless, I think to be able to deal with one company and not have either one of them necessarily looking behind the curtains to see, "Is there possibly something you've given to one that you haven't given to us?" will simplify things a little bit. I don't think it will be dramatic.

總的來說，這會簡化事情，因此，我認為我們支持它。我們與MVW和ILG保持著良好的關係。Leeny 和他的團隊已經與這兩家公司完成了談判，因此我們可以自由地進行忠誠度計劃、網站以及其他所有相關事宜的合併。所以那些限制都已成為過去。不過，我認為，如果只需要和一家公司打交道，而不用讓雙方互相窺探“你是否可能給了別人而沒有給我們的東西？”，事情就會簡單一些。我覺得不會有什麼大問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay of RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的韋斯‧戈拉迪。

Can we go back to the international IMFs? Can you talk about what the main drivers are that's driving that growth? Is it more rooms in the system? Is it a higher percentage of the rooms paying fees? Is it the operating profit growth? And then when you look at how much RevPAR growth you need for margin expansion.

我們能回到國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）嗎？您能談談推動這種成長的主要因素是什麼嗎？系統裡房間數量更多嗎？是支付費用的房間比例更高嗎？是營業利潤成長嗎？然後，你需要考慮利潤率擴張需要多少RevPAR成長。

So you got a bunch of things there. So obviously, when you've got RevPAR, for example, in China that gets close to 12%, you're going to get pretty spectacular margin improvement there. And with every dollar of increased profits, we get a share because in Asia Pacific, there's no owner's priority. So from that perspective, I would say that the biggest chunk of the growth in IMFs is coming from Asia Pacific and their very strong performance. When you look at the overall kind of percentage, you are seeing that kind of year-over-year compared to a year ago, the percentage of hotels earning incentive fees internationally did go up 3 percentage points, went up from 68% to 71%. Overall for the company, actually down a little bit because in the U.S., we had a couple large limited-service portfolios that with, relatively speaking, lower managed RevPAR growth, they paid a lower percentage of incentive fees. But again, it was 2/3, 1/3 and that is 2/3 of our IMFs coming from international, you're clearly seeing the benefit of the fact that most of those contracts do not have owner's priority. And I'd say from a unit growth perspective, for ramping up hotels, you're getting a nice amount of IMFs, but I would say that the RevPAR growth is the biggest driver.

所以你那裡有很多東西。所以很明顯，例如在中國，當每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 接近 12% 時，利潤率將會得到非常顯著的提升。而且，每增加一美元的利潤，我們都能分得一杯羹，因為在亞太地區，沒有所有者的優先權。因此從這個角度來看，我認為國際貨幣基金組織成長的最大部分來自亞太地區及其非常強勁的表現。從整體百分比來看，與去年同期相比，獲得國際獎勵費用的飯店百分比上升了 3 個百分點，從 68% 上升到 71%。整體而言，公司業績實際上略有下降，因為在美國，我們有幾個大型的有限服務投資組合，相對而言，這些投資組合的管理RevPAR成長較低，因此支付的激勵費用比例也較低。但再說一遍，是 2/3，1/3，也就是說我們 2/3 的國際貨幣基金組織資金來自國際管道，很明顯，大多數此類合約沒有所有者優先權這一事實帶來了好處。從單位成長的角度來看，為了擴大飯店規模，你會獲得相當多的IMF（國際貨幣基金組織）資金，但我認為RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）的成長才是最大的驅動力。

Okay. And then when we look at that 2/3 or just the international component of the IMF, how much is the Asia Pacific region of that bucket?

好的。那麼，當我們審視國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的 2/3 或僅國際部分時，亞太地區在這部分中佔多大比例呢？

We can get it for you. I don't have it.

我們可以幫你弄到手。我沒有。

Give me a call after the call, I'll get that for you.

通話結束後回我電話，我幫你弄一下。

I will say in general that our fees overall tend to be fairly well distributed relative to the room counts, but you are going to find obviously, particularly this time, that Asia Pacific on the IMF side is going to be higher proportionately.

總的來說，我們的費用總體上與房間數量相比分佈得相當均衡，但顯然你會發現，尤其是在這次會議上，亞太地區國際貨幣基金組織的費用比例會更高。

At this time, there are no further questions. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Arne Sorenson for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題了。現在我想把發言權交還給 Arne Sorenson，讓他做最後的總結發言。

All right. Thank you all very much for your participation and your attention today. Great, as always, to talk with you. Get out there and travel, we'd love to welcome you to our hotels.

好的。非常感謝各位今天的參與與關注。很高興一如既往地和你聊天。走出去，去旅行吧！我們熱忱歡迎您入住我們的飯店。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。