萬豪國際 (MAR) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Jennifer, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Marriott International's Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

早安.我叫詹妮弗，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表萬豪國際集團歡迎各位參加2018年第二季財報電話會議。（操作說明）現在我將把會議交給總裁兼執行長阿恩·索倫森先生。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Second Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

各位早安。歡迎參加我們2018年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；投資者關係資深副總裁 Laura Paugh；以及投資者關係高級總監 Betsy Dahm。

First, let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night along with our comments today are effective only today, August 7, 2018, and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find slides for today's discussion on our website at www.marriott.com/investor or in our 8-K filing.

首先，我要提醒大家，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們今天發表的評論僅在今天（2018 年 8 月 7 日）有效，不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。您可以在我們的網站 www.marriott.com/investor 或我們的 8-K 文件中找到今天討論的幻燈片。

In our discussion today about the income statement, we will talk about results, excluding merger-related costs, reimbursed revenues and related expenses; the year-to-date net adjustment to the tax charge related to the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017; and the year-to-date adjustment to the Avendra gain. Of course, you can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks also on our website.

在今天關於損益表的討論中，我們將討論不包括與合併相關的成本、已報銷收入和相關費用的業績；與 2017 年美國減稅和就業法案相關的稅費年初至今的淨調整；以及 Avendra 收益年初至今的調整。當然，您也可以在我們的網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及我們在聲明中提到的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

So let's get started. Our second quarter was terrific. Adjusted earnings per share rose 56% to $1.73, with better-than-expected fee revenue, owned, leased results and G&A expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased 15% and cash returned to shareholders totaled nearly $1 billion. As an encore to our first quarter strength, worldwide system-wide RevPAR rose 3.8% in the quarter, at the high end of our guidance.

那麼，我們就開始吧。我們第二季的業績非常出色。經調整後的每股盈餘成長 56% 至 1.73 美元，費用收入、自有租賃業績及一般及行政費用均優於預期。調整後 EBITDA 成長 15%，返還給股東的現金總額接近 10 億美元。延續第一季強勁勢頭，本季全球系統平均每間可供出租客房收入成長 3.8%，達到我們預期的高端水平。

In North America, we continued to see strength in leisure and corporate demand, particularly in the energy, retail and professional services sectors. System-wide RevPAR in North America increased 3.1% in the second quarter, with RevPAR at luxury hotels up nearly 4%. Transient RevPAR rose 2.5% in the quarter, with higher room rates associated with group compression. Group RevPAR rose 4.5%, reflecting the shift in Easter holiday.

在北美，休閒和企業需求持續強勁，尤其是在能源、零售和專業服務業。第二季度，北美地區的系統平均每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 3.1%，豪華飯店的 RevPAR 成長了近 4%。本季瞬間每間可供出租客房收入成長了 2.5%，較高的客房價格與團體住宿有關。集團每間可供出租客房收入成長 4.5%，反映了復活節假期的變化。

Group attendance trends improved, while food and beverage revenue rose nearly 5%. Group pace for comp and noncomp hotels for 2018 is up at a mid-single-digit rate. For comp hotels alone, pace is up at a low single-digit rate. Given today's very high occupancy rates, we expect transient RevPAR will grow faster than group in the near term. At the same time, year-to-date, our group revenue bookings for all future periods is up over 17%.

團體出席率提高，餐飲收入成長近 5%。2018 年，飯店集團（包括免費飯店和非免費飯店）的入住率以中等個位數的速度成長。單就免費飯店而言，入住率的成長速度也達到了個位數。鑑於目前非常高的入住率，我們預期短期內臨時客源RevPAR的成長速度將超過集團客源RevPAR的成長速度。同時，今年迄今為止，我們集團未來所有期間的收入預訂量增長超過 17%。

RevPAR growth exceeded 5% in the quarter in New Orleans, Orlando, South Florida, San Francisco and Houston and increased at a double-digit rate in Toronto and Vancouver. RevPAR in New York rose nearly 4% with higher retail and special corporate demand, particularly from tech companies and higher international arrivals. We expect 2018 RevPAR for North America system-wide comparable hotels will increase 2% to 3%. For the first half of 2018, we reported RevPAR growth of 2.7%. We believe RevPAR growth in the first half of 2018 would have been a bit slower, roughly 2.5%, if we adjust for last year's inauguration and the lingering impact of the 2017 hurricanes.

新奧爾良、奧蘭多、南佛羅裡達、舊金山和休士頓的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 在本季度增長超過 5%，多倫多和溫哥華的 RevPAR 增長達到兩位數。紐約的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增加了近 4%，這主要得益於零售和特殊企業需求的增長，尤其是來自科技公司的需求以及國際遊客數量的增加。我們預計 2018 年北美地區同類飯店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 2% 至 3%。2018 年上半年，我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 2.7%。我們認為，如果考慮到去年的就職典禮和 2017 年颶風的持續影響，2018 年上半年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長速度會稍慢一些，約為 2.5%。

For the second half of 2018, we expect reported North American system-wide comparable RevPAR will grow 1.5% to 2%. If we similarly adjust our second half RevPAR growth estimate for the midweek Independence Day and the tough comparison to last year's hurricanes, we believe RevPAR growth would again be roughly 2.5%. In other words, our top line forecast is steady as she goes.

預計 2018 年下半年，北美系統整體可比 RevPAR 成長 1.5% 至 2%。如果我們同樣調整下半年的RevPAR成長預期，考慮到周中獨立日以及與去年颶風的嚴峻對比，我們認為RevPAR成長仍將約為2.5%。換句話說，我們的整體預測將保持穩定。

On the international front, the growth in demand continues to be impressive with price gains as well as occupancy improvements. System-wide constant dollar RevPAR in our Asia-Pacific region increased 9% in the second quarter, while RevPAR in Greater China rose 10% on very strong retail demand. The 2018 Beijing Motor Show increased occupancies in that city, while Hong Kong and Macau benefited from strong leisure demand, particularly from Mainland China. RevPAR in Indonesia increased 17% as demand returned to Bali. RevPAR in Japan increased 7% on strong retail demand, while in India, greater group business in gateway cities also increased RevPAR by 7%. For the second half, we expect RevPAR in the Asia-Pacific region to continue to grow at a high single-digit rate, albeit a bit more modestly than in the first half.

國際方面，需求成長依然強勁，價格上漲，入住率也有所提高。第二季度，亞太地區系統整體的固定美元RevPAR成長了9%，而大中華區的RevPAR成長了10%，主要得益於零售需求的強勁成長。2018 年北京車展提高了北京的飯店入住率，而香港和澳門則受益於強勁的休閒旅遊需求，特別是來自中國大陸的需求。隨著峇裡島需求的回升，印尼的每間可供出租客房收入增加了 17%。在日本，由於零售需求強勁，每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 7%；而在印度，門戶城市集團業務的增長也使每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 7%。預計下半年亞太地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將繼續保持較高的個位數成長率，儘管成長可能比上半年略低。

In the Middle East and Africa region, system-wide constant dollar RevPAR declined 4% in the second quarter due to the earlier timing of Ramadan and continued political tension in parts of the region. RevPAR in Africa rose nearly 7 -- or excuse me, nearly 9% with strength in Algeria, Nigeria and Egypt. By the way, I just returned from a visit to our properties in Egypt and Algeria. There is a lot of enthusiasm for Marriott there and a lot of room for future growth. In the third quarter, we expect RevPAR in the MEA region will increase at a mid-single-digit rate, benefiting from the timing of Ramadan, while fourth quarter RevPAR is likely to be flat to modestly lower.

由於齋戒月提前到來以及該地區部分地區持續的政治緊張局勢，中東和非洲地區第二季度系統整體按固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入下降了 4%。非洲的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了近 7%——或者更準確地說，近 9%，其中阿爾及利亞、尼日利亞和埃及的增長尤為強勁。順便說一下，我剛從埃及和阿爾及利亞的房產巡視回來。當地人對萬豪酒店充滿熱情，未來發展空間也很大。我們預計，第三季度中東和非洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將以中等個位數的速度增長，受益於齋月的到來；而第四季度的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）可能會持平或略有下降。

In Europe, the World Cup was played in Russia for the first time, and we saw considerable last-minute demand. Congratulations to the French team on winning their second World Cup title. Across Europe, system-wide constant dollar RevPAR rose 5% in the second quarter, driven by strong results in Russia, France and Turkey. U.K. RevPAR was flattish, likely due to lingering concerns about Brexit. RevPAR growth in Spain and Italy was weaker, as many Europeans shifted their spring holiday stays to other venues. For the second half of the year, we believe RevPAR in Europe will continue to increase at a mid-single-digit rate. While Italy is likely to remain weak, Spain will benefit from easier comparisons. Paris should be strong, and we expect Turkey will continue to improve.

在歐洲，世界盃首次在俄羅斯舉行，我們看到了相當大的臨場需求。恭喜法國隊贏得他們的第二個世界盃冠軍。在整個歐洲，第二季以固定美元計算的系統性每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 5%，主要得益於俄羅斯、法國和土耳其的強勁業績。英國每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）基本持平，可能是由於人們對英國脫歐的擔憂仍然存在。西班牙和義大利的每間可供出租客房收入增長疲軟，因為許多歐洲人將春季假期住宿地點轉移到了其他地方。我們認為，今年下半年歐洲的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將繼續以中位數個位數的速度成長。義大利可能依然疲軟，而西班牙則因比較基數較小而受益。巴黎應該會表現強勁，我們預期土耳其也會繼續進步。

In the Caribbean and Latin American region, RevPAR rose 8% in the quarter. RevPAR for hotels in the Caribbean increased at a low double-digit rate as they continue to benefit from lower industry supply following last year's hurricanes. RevPAR in Mexico declined modestly, reflecting traveler concerns about security. In the third quarter, we expect RevPAR in the region will increase at a mid-single-digit rate, driven by stronger results in Mexico on an easy comparison to last year's earthquake. In the fourth quarter, RevPAR should moderate as hurricane-damaged hotels reopen and comparisons become tougher. Worldwide, we expect third and fourth quarter RevPAR will increase 2.5% to 3% and 2018 RevPAR will improve roughly 3% to 4%.

加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在本季度增長了 8%。由於去年颶風過後行業供應減少，加勒比地區的酒店每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 繼續受益，實現了兩位數的低增長。墨西哥的每間可供出租客房收入略有下降，反映出旅客對安全的擔憂。第三季度，我們預期該地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將以中位數個位數的速度成長，這主要得益於墨西哥市場業績強勁，而去年地震造成的基數效應也使得今年的基數效應較為溫和。第四季度，隨著颶風受損飯店重新開業，比較基數增大，每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）應該會趨於緩和。我們預計全球第三季和第四季每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 2.5% 至 3%，2018 年的 RevPAR 將成長約 3% 至 4%。

While we're encouraged by 2018 results, we are even more excited about our longer-term prospects. From a competitive viewpoint, we've never been better positioned. We lead the industry in number of rooms and distribution, geographically and across chain scales. Our brands are powerful. Our already premium RevPAR index increased 120 basis points in the last 12 months and is likely to continue to climb.

雖然我們對 2018 年的業績感到鼓舞，但我們對更長遠的前景更加興奮。從競爭角度來看，我們從未處於如此有利的地位。我們在客房數量、分銷管道、地理分佈和連鎖規模方面都處於行業領先地位。我們的品牌實力雄厚。我們原本就表現優異的RevPAR指數在過去12個月成長了120個基點，而且很可能會繼續攀升。

Our 3 loyalty programs lead the industry and are getting better. We expect to unify our loyalty programs on August 18. While we will retain all 3 loyalty program brand names until next year, customers will experience them as 1 great program. Guests will earn points faster, achieve elite status sooner and redeem points more easily and without blackout dates. Also on August 18, we will introduce full portfolio inventory on Marriott's direct channels, including our websites and mobile apps, which will enable guests to conveniently search for any of our hotels on all of our websites and apps based on brand, tiers, distance, price, amenities, transportation, nearby attractions and points of interest.

我們的三大會員忠誠度計畫在業界處於領先地位，並且還在不斷改進。我們預計將於8月18日統一會員計劃。雖然我們將保留這 3 個會員計劃品牌名稱直到明年，但顧客將體驗到它們作為一個整體的優秀計劃。賓客將更快獲得積分，更快達到精英會員資格，更容易兌換積分，且無日期限制。此外，8 月 18 日，我們將在萬豪的直接管道（包括我們的網站和行動應用程式）上推出完整的飯店產品組合，屆時賓客可以根據品牌、等級、距離、價格、設施、交通、附近景點和興趣點，方便地在我們所有的網站和應用程式上搜尋我們旗下的任何飯店。

With over 6,700 properties, we are positioned to take care of guests whether they are on a Midwest road trip, making a sales call in Johannesburg or enjoying a luxury resort getaway in the South Pacific. This growing breadth of product and the growing number of earning and redemption opportunities increases the value of our loyalty program as guests don't need to look further than our properties virtually anywhere they may travel.

我們擁有超過 6700 處房產，無論客人是在中西部公路旅行、在約翰內斯堡進行銷售拜訪，還是在南太平洋享受豪華度假，我們都能為他們提供周到的服務。產品範圍的不斷擴大以及賺取和兌換機會的不斷增加，提高了我們忠誠度計劃的價值，因為客人幾乎無論去哪裡旅行，都不需要再去別處尋找，我們的酒店就是最佳選擇。

In addition to earning and redeeming points at our hotels, Marriott Moments offers guests local activities and experiences from sporting events and concerts to cooking and tennis lessons. In the second quarter, Marriott Moments revenue nearly tripled from first quarter levels, enhancing returns to owners and increasing guest engagement and loyalty.

除了在我們的酒店賺取和兌換積分外，萬豪時刻還為客人提供當地的活動和體驗，從體育賽事和音樂會到烹飪和網球課程。第二季度，Marriott Moments 的營收比第一季成長了近三倍，提高了業主的收益，並增強了賓客的參與度和忠誠度。

Loyalty programs make lodging demand sticky. A loyalty program with significant luxury destinations and experiences is magnetic. Dreams about luxury Hawaiian holidays are motivating, particularly for travelers who spend a meaningful part of their lives on the road. In 2017, the 477 properties in our 7 luxury brands represented just 9% of our worlds -- of our rooms worldwide but 17% of our loyalty point redemptions. Our luxury brands also contribute 19% of our property-based gross fee revenue, which could equate to nearly $600 million in 2018.

會員忠誠度計畫能增強住宿需求的黏性。擁有眾多豪華旅遊目的地和體驗項目的會員忠誠計劃極具吸引力。夢想著去夏威夷享受奢華假期是件令人振奮的事，尤其是對於那些把人生中相當一部分時間花在路上的旅客來說。2017 年，我們 7 個豪華品牌旗下的 477 家飯店僅占我們全球客房總數的 9%，但卻占我們忠誠度積分兌換總數的 17%。我們的奢侈品牌也貢獻了我們物業總費用收入的 19%，2018 年可能達到近 6 億美元。

Like loyalty and luxury, our booking engines are also a significant competitive advantage. Guests can book our hotels directly through our websites, apps, call centers, group sales offices or on property. In 2017, 2/3 of our transient business was booked through one of our direct channels, with more than half of these direct bookings on our websites or apps. We have been encouraging direct digital bookings using special loyalty member pricing and our next-generation yield management system focused on nights when occupancy rates are high. Because of our efforts, revenue booked on our branded websites and mobile apps increased materially faster than our revenue booked through the OTAs in the second quarter.

就像忠誠度和奢華感一樣，我們的預訂引擎也是一項重要的競爭優勢。客人可以透過我們的網站、應用程式、呼叫中心、團體銷售辦事處或飯店現場直接預訂我們的飯店。2017 年，我們 2/3 的臨時住宿業務是透過我們的直接管道預訂的，其中超過一半的直接預訂是透過我們的網站或應用程式完成的。我們一直鼓勵使用特殊的會員專屬價格和新一代收益管理系統進行直接數位預訂，並專注於入住率高的夜晚。由於我們的努力，第二季透過我們品牌網站和行動應用程式獲得的收入成長速度明顯快於透過線上旅行社獲得的收入。

For hotel owners, we continue to improve productivity as well as recognize synergy savings from the Starwood acquisition. We recently reduced commission rates for intermediary group business, which should improve house profit margins for our best-in-class convention and resorts network hotels. In the third quarter, most owners should see additional savings as we make further reductions in loyalty charge-out rates. For hotels hosting loyalty redemptions, we have announced a new sliding scale reimbursement approach. We believe this will reduce incentives for hotels to cut room rates at the last minute.

對飯店業主而言，我們將繼續提高生產力，並意識到收購喜達屋帶來的綜效所帶來的成本節約。我們最近降低了中介團體業務的佣金率，這應該會提高我們一流的會議和度假村網路飯店的利潤率。第三季度，隨著我們進一步降低忠誠度收費率，大多數業主應該會看到更多節省。對於提供會員積分兌換的酒店，我們宣布了一個新的階梯式報銷方案。我們相信這將減少酒店在最後一刻降低房價的動機。

Finally, beginning in 2019, we plan on implementing a program services fee to bundle above-property charges, including reservations, sales and marketing, revenue management and mobile guest services. Our program services fee should be simpler, more flexible and more predictable for owners, and we believe it will further reduce costs to most of our hotels.

最後，從 2019 年開始，我們計劃實施一項專案服務費，將房產以外的費用打包收取，包括預訂、銷售和行銷、收益管理和行動客戶服務。我們的專案服務費應該對業主來說更簡單、更靈活、更可預測，我們相信這將進一步降低我們大多數飯店的成本。

And this leads to development. According to STR, we continue to have the largest pipeline of rooms under development in the world, including more luxury and upper-upscale rooms than our next 3 competitors combined. We opened a record 23,000 rooms during the second quarter, and our inventory of rooms under construction worldwide advanced to more than 213,000 rooms. We added nearly 40,000 signed or approved rooms to the development pipeline in the second quarter.

而這會帶來發展。根據 STR 的數據，我們目前擁有全球最大的在建客房項目，其中包括比排名第二和第三的競爭對手加起來還要多的豪華和高端客房。第二季度，我們新增了創紀錄的 23,000 間客房，全球在建客房總數超過 213,000 間。第二季度，我們新增了近 4 萬間已簽約或已核准的客房進入開發案。

At the same time, we also removed 14,000 rooms from the pipeline that had not made enough progress towards construction starts. At quarter-end, our pipeline stood at roughly 466,000 rooms, a few thousand rooms higher than last quarter and roughly 25,000 rooms higher than at the end of the second quarter of 2017.

同時，我們也從專案規劃中剔除了 14,000 個尚未取得足夠進展以啟動建造的房間。截至季末，我們的在建項目約有 466,000 間客房，比上一季增加了數千間，比 2017 年第二季末增加了約 25,000 間。

Worldwide, our pipeline emphasizes the higher-value lodging tiers as we begin at mid-scale and extend to luxury. Our luxury brands alone represent 11% of our pipeline. Of the tiers in which we play, our brands represent 30% of industry rooms under construction worldwide and nearly 45% of industry rooms under construction in North America. To ensure we are driving real value, our developments -- our development team's success is measured both on meeting targets for net present value as well as number of rooms signed.

在全球範圍內，我們的產品線重點關注高價值的住宿級別，從中檔酒店開始，逐步擴展到豪華酒店。光是我們的奢侈品牌就占我們業務總量的 11%。在我們所處的行業層級中，我們的品牌在全球在建酒店客房中佔比 30%，在北美在建酒店客房中佔比近 45%。為了確保我們創造真正的價值，我們的開發專案－我們開發團隊的成功衡量標準既包括淨現值目標的達成情況，也包括簽約房間數量的達成情況。

When we announced our intention to acquire Starwood in late 2015, we noted the driving force behind the transaction was growth. The acquisition would provide an opportunity to create value by combining the distribution and strengths of Marriott and Starwood, enhancing our competitiveness in a quickly evolving marketplace. With the significant accomplishments at Marriott since that announcement, we believe we are on our way to realizing that promise.

2015 年底，我們宣布有意收購喜達屋酒店集團時，我們指出，這筆交易背後的驅動力是成長。此次收購將帶來一個機會，透過結合萬豪和喜達屋的分銷管道和優勢來創造價值，從而增強我們在快速變化的市場中的競爭力。自從宣布這一消息以來，萬豪取得了顯著成就，我們相信我們正在朝著實現這一承諾的方向前進。

These accomplishments are due to the efforts of many people at Marriott. With the upcoming launch of our combined loyalty program, I want to express our gratitude to the entire loyalty organization, our information technology team, our marketing group and everyone on property throughout the system who have been working toward this day. Thank you.

這些成就歸功於萬豪酒店眾多員工的努力。隨著我們聯合會員計畫即將推出，我要向整個會員組織、我們的資訊科技團隊、我們的行銷團隊以及整個系統中所有為這一天付出努力的員工表示衷心的感謝。謝謝。

So for more about the quarter, let's turn the call over to Leeny.

那麼，關於本季度的更多信息，讓我們把電話交給李尼。

Thank you, Arne. For the second quarter of 2018, adjusted diluted earnings per share totaled $1.73, 56% over the prior year quarter and $0.38 over the midpoint of our guidance. Roughly $0.02 of the outperformance came from better-than-expected gross fee revenue; $0.02 came from better-than-expected performance on the owned, leased line, largely termination fees; $0.07 came from better-than-expected general and administrative expenses, including lower-than-expected profit-sharing contribution and favorable timing; $0.24 came from gains on the sale of assets, including the sale of a hotel in a joint venture; and $0.03 came from favorable discrete tax items.

謝謝你，阿恩。2018 年第二季度，經調整後的稀釋每股收益總計 1.73 美元，比上年同期增長 56%，比我們預期的中點高出 0.38 美元。其中約 0.02 美元的超額收益來自超出預期的總費用收入；0.02 美元來自自有租賃線路超出預期的業績，主要是終止費；0.07 美元來自超出預期的管理費用，包括低於預期的利潤分成和有利的時機；0.24 美元來自出售資產的收益，包括出售合資酒店的收益來自稅收的收入；0.03 美元。

In the second quarter, gross fee revenues totaled $951 million, a 12% increase year-over-year largely from unit growth, RevPAR gains and higher incentive and branding fees. Credit card fees alone totaled $93 million compared to $59 million in the prior year, while other nonproperty fees, including timeshare fees and residential branding fees, declined 3% to $38 million. With the weaker U.S. dollar, second quarter fee revenue benefited from $7 million favorable impact from foreign exchange, net of hedges.

第二季總費用收入為 9.51 億美元，年增 12%，主要得益於單位數量增長、每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長以及更高的激勵和品牌推廣費用。光是信用卡手續費就達到了 9,300 萬美元，而前一年為 5,900 萬美元；其他非房產費用，包括分時度假費和住宅品牌推廣費，下降了 3%，至 3,800 萬美元。由於美元走軟，第二季手續費收入受益於外匯帶來的 700 萬美元有利影響（扣除對沖收益後）。

Compared to our expectations, fee revenue outperformed by $11 million at the midpoint, largely due to better-than-expected performance at franchise hotels and stronger-than-expected incentive fees in North America and Europe. Worldwide house profit margins for company-operated hotels improved 60 basis points in the second quarter on a 4.1% increase in managed hotel RevPAR. Our teams around the world have done a fantastic job as we continue to recognize property-level cost savings from procurement, productivity and other merger synergies.

與我們的預期相比，費用收入中點超出預期 1100 萬美元，這主要是由於特許經營酒店的業績好於預期，以及北美和歐洲的激勵費用強於預期。第二季度，該公司自營酒店的全球房屋利潤率提高了 60 個基點，這得益於管理酒店每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 4.1%。我們全球各地的團隊都做得非常出色，我們不斷透過採購、提高生產力和其他合併協同效應來降低物業層面的成本。

Owned, leased and other revenue net of expenses totaled $89 million in the second quarter, a 9% decline from the prior year. Property dispositions reduced owned, leased results in the quarter by $21 million year-over-year, somewhat offset by higher termination fees and higher profits from owned and leased full-service hotels in North America and Europe. Owned, leased and other revenue net of expenses was $9 million higher than expectations, largely due to higher termination fees.

第二季度，自有、租賃和其他收入扣除支出後總計 8,900 萬美元，比上年同期下降 9%。物業處置導致本季度自有和租賃業績同比減少了 2,100 萬美元，但北美和歐洲自有及租賃的全服務酒店更高的終止費和更高的利潤在一定程度上抵消了這一損失。扣除支出後，自有資產、租賃資產和其他資產淨收入比預期高出 900 萬美元，主要原因是終止費用較高。

General and administrative expenses declined 7% in the second quarter, largely due to synergies associated with the Starwood acquisition. Second quarter G&A was $33 million better than guided. We expected our profit-sharing match would total $25 million in the second quarter, following $35 million recognized in the first quarter. The actual amount of second quarter profit-sharing match was $2 million as enrollments lagged expectations.

第二季一般及行政費用下降了 7%，主要是因為收購喜達屋飯店帶來的綜效。第二季一般及行政費用比預期低3,300萬美元。我們預計第二季利潤分成總額將達到 2,500 萬美元，而第一季已確認的利潤分成總額為 3,500 萬美元。由於招生人數未達預期，第二季獲利分享配對資金的實際金額為 200 萬美元。

We expect the impact of additional profit-sharing enrollments and related expenditures will total $18 million in the second half of 2018 as we shift some of the previously anticipated spending to the back half of the year. As a reminder, we currently estimate the total cost of this program is $110 million. 1/2 of it is being funded by our gain on the sale of Avendra, with $55 million impacting our G&A line in the full year 2018. This expense will not recur in 2019.

我們預計，由於我們將一些先前預計的支出轉移到下半年，2018 年下半年新增利潤分享計畫的參與人數和相關支出將達到 1,800 萬美元。再次提醒，我們目前估計該項目的總成本為 1.1 億美元。其中一半資金來自我們出售 Avendra 的收益，5,500 萬美元將計入我們 2018 年全年的 G&A 支出。2019年不會再發生這項支出。

Dispositions exceeded $400 million in the quarter and gains on asset sales totaled $119 million. We sold the Sheraton and Westin hotels in Fiji, the Sheraton Montreal, the Chicago Tremont, our interest in a joint venture which owns the Royal Orchid in Thailand and the W Mexico City and our interest in a joint venture which owns land parcels in Italy. Another of our joint ventures sold The Ritz-Carlton Toronto, and we recorded our share of the gain on the equities and earnings line on that transaction.

本季資產處分超過 4 億美元，資產出售收益總計 1.19 億美元。我們出售了斐濟的喜來登酒店和威斯汀酒店、蒙特利爾喜來登酒店、芝加哥特雷蒙特酒店、我們在擁有泰國皇家蘭花酒店和墨西哥城 W 酒店的合資企業中的股份，以及我們在擁有意大利地塊的合資企業中的股份。我們的另一家合資企業出售了多倫多麗思卡爾頓酒店，我們在該交易的權益和收益表中記錄了我們應得的收益份額。

You may recall that in late 2016, we outlined a target of $1.5 billion of asset recycling by year-end '18. With the completion of these asset sales this quarter, along with the sales of other hotels, joint venture interests and loan repayments in earlier periods, our asset recycling has surpassed this 2-year target, already reaching nearly $1.8 billion. We've secured both long-term management agreements and, where needed, commitments for significant renovations for 9 of the 10 hotels sold since late 2016.

您可能還記得，在 2016 年底，我們制定了在 2018 年底實現 15 億美元資產回收的目標。隨著本季這些資產出售的完成，加上先前出售的其他飯店、合資權益和償還貸款，我們的資產回收已經超過了2年的目標，已經達到近18億美元。自 2016 年底以來，我們已為售出的 10 家酒店中的 9 家簽訂了長期管理協議，並在需要時獲得了重大翻新的承諾。

Equity and earnings totaled $21 million in the quarter and included a $10 million gain on the sale of The Ritz-Carlton Toronto Hotel. This transaction also included a commitment for renovation of the property. Net interest expense increased $14 million in the second quarter due to higher interest rates on our commercial paper balances, higher debt levels and lower interest income.

本季權益和收益總計 2,100 萬美元，其中包括出售多倫多麗思卡爾頓酒店獲得的 1,000 萬美元收益。此次交易還包括對該房產進行翻新的承諾。由於商業票據餘額利率上升、債務水準上升和利息收入下降，第二季淨利息支出增加了 1,400 萬美元。

Second quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to $939 million despite a $17 million negative impact from sold assets. Looking ahead, we expect worldwide constant dollar system-wide RevPAR will increase 2.5% to 3% in each of the third and fourth quarters, yielding 3% to 4% RevPAR growth for the full year.

儘管出售資產造成 1,700 萬美元的負面影響，但第二季調整後 EBITDA 仍成長 15% 至 9.39 億美元。展望未來，我們預計全球以固定美元計算的系統性每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在第三季和第四季將分別成長 2.5% 至 3%，實現全年 3% 至 4% 的 RevPAR 成長。

Nearly half of our 466,000-rooms pipeline is under construction. Over half is outside North America and 41% is in the upper-upscale or luxury tiers. While not shown on Slide 10, 45% of the rooms pipeline is company-managed, but less than 10% of the pipeline is subject to an owner priority return.

我們46.6萬間客房的規劃中，近一半正在興建中。超過一半位於北美以外地區，41%屬於高端或豪華等級。雖然第 10 張投影片上沒有顯示，但 45% 的客房預訂流程由公司管理，但只有不到 10% 的預訂流程遵循業主優先回報原則。

For the full year, we continue to expect gross openings to yield about 7% growth. Our new signings remain robust and the number of rooms under construction has increased more than 20% since the second quarter of 2017. And we continue to have more rooms under construction than any competitor.

我們預計全年總開業數量將成長約 7%。我們的新簽約項目依然強勁，在建客房數量自 2017 年第二季以來增長了 20% 以上。而且，我們目前正在建造的客房數量也比任何競爭對手都多。

For 2018, deletions are running close to 2%, a bit higher than typical. While there are different stories for every hotel, we are completing workouts of Legacy-Starwood properties and are being more aggressive in addressing product quality issues. We expect the pace of deletions will slow in 2019. On a net basis, this yields roughly 5% net worldwide rooms growth in 2018.

2018 年的刪除率接近 2%，略高於往年平均值。雖然每家酒店的情況都不盡相同，但我們正在完成對原喜達屋旗下酒店的整改，並更加積極地解決產品品質問題。我們預計 2019 年刪除速度將放緩。從淨值來看，這意味著 2018 年全球客房淨成長約 5%。

Given our worldwide RevPAR and unit growth assumptions, we expect gross fee revenue for the third quarter will total $915 million to $935 million, an 11% to 13% increase over the prior year. Our fee revenue estimates assumes nearly $5 million in favorable foreign exchange impact in the third quarter. We expect owned, leased and other revenue net of direct expenses will total roughly $65 million in the third quarter, which reflects stronger hotel results and higher termination fees as well as a $23 million negative impact from sold hotels. Our guidance assumes no further asset sales beyond those that have been completed.

根據我們對全球每間可供出租客房收入和單位成長的假設，我們預計第三季總費用收入將達到 9.15 億美元至 9.35 億美元，比上年增長 11% 至 13%。我們的費用收入預測假設第三季將獲得近 500 萬美元的有利外匯影響。我們預計第三季自有、租賃和其他收入扣除直接費用後總計約為 6,500 萬美元，這反映了酒店業績的強勁增長和終止費的增加，以及出售酒店帶來的 2,300 萬美元的負面影響。我們的指導意見假設除已完成的資產出售外，不會再有其他資產出售。

G&A should total $235 million to $240 million in the third quarter, including roughly $10 million for additional contribution for profit sharing. These assumptions yield $1.27 to $1.32 diluted earnings per share -- adjusted diluted earnings per share for the third quarter, 21% to 26% higher than our 2017 third quarter adjusted EPS of $1.05.

第三季一般及行政費用總額應為 2.35 億美元至 2.4 億美元，其中包括約 1,000 萬美元的額外利潤分成。這些假設得出第三季稀釋後每股收益為 1.27 美元至 1.32 美元——調整後稀釋後每股收益，比 2017 年第三季調整後每股收益 1.05 美元高出 21% 至 26%。

For the fourth quarter, we expect gross fee revenue will total $929 million to $944 million, including a roughly $10 million benefit from foreign exchange. Results from owned, leased and other revenue net of direct expenses should total roughly $91 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting stronger hotel results, higher termination fees and a roughly $5 million benefit from our purchase of the Sheraton Grand Phoenix, offset by a $13 million negative impact from sold hotels.

我們預計第四季總費用收入將達到 9.29 億美元至 9.44 億美元，其中包括約 1,000 萬美元的外匯收益。第四季度，自有、租賃和其他收入扣除直接費用後的總和應約為 9,100 萬美元，這反映了酒店業績的強勁增長、更高的終止費以及我們收購鳳凰城喜來登大酒店帶來的約 500 萬美元收益，但被出售酒店帶來的 1,300 萬美元負面影響所抵消。

G&A should total $236 million to $241 million in the fourth quarter, reflecting continued synergies associated with the merger as well as an $8 million profit-sharing match. We expect our tax rate in the fourth quarter will benefit from some discrete items, which should lower the tax rate for that quarter to roughly 20%. Fourth quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share should total $1.47 to $1.52, a 35% to 39% increase over 2017 fourth quarter adjusted EPS.

第四季一般及行政費用總額應為 2.36 億美元至 2.41 億美元，反映出合併帶來的持續綜效以及 800 萬美元的利潤分成匹配。我們預計第四季度的稅率將受益於一些特殊項目，這將使該季度的稅率降至約 20%。第四季調整後稀釋每股收益應為 1.47 美元至 1.52 美元，比 2017 年第四季調整後每股收益成長 35% 至 39%。

For the full year 2018, we believe gross fee revenue could total $3.64 billion to $3.675 billion, a 10% to 12% increase. Incentive fees could increase at a roughly 10% rate, and credit card branding fees could total $360 million to $380 million for the year. Our estimate of full year owned, leased and other revenue net of direct expenses includes stronger hotel results, higher termination fees and an $80 million negative impact from the sale of assets. Our estimate for adjusted EBITDA assumes a $67 million negative impact from the sale of assets.

我們認為，2018 年全年總費用收入可能達到 36.4 億美元至 36.75 億美元，成長 10% 至 12%。激勵費用可能會以約 10% 的速度成長，信用卡品牌推廣費用全年可能達到 3.6 億美元至 3.8 億美元。我們對全年自有、租賃和其他收入扣除直接費用後的估計包括酒店業績的強勁增長、更高的終止費以及出售資產帶來的 8000 萬美元負面影響。我們對調整後 EBITDA 的估計假設出售資產會帶來 6700 萬美元的負面影響。

Full year 2018 G&A should total $935 million to $945 million for 2018. Compared to our prior guidance, our G&A has decreased modestly for 2018, reflecting lower estimated profit-sharing contribution, somewhat offset by higher workload and costs associated with changes to accounting rules and higher compensation expense. These assumptions yield $5.81 to $5.91 adjusted diluted earnings per share for 2018, a 38% to 40% increase over adjusted EPS of $4.21 in 2017.

2018 年全年一般及行政費用總額應為 9.35 億美元至 9.45 億美元。與我們先前的預期相比，2018 年的 G&A 費用略有下降，這反映出預計的利潤分成貢獻減少，但部分被會計準則變更相關的工作量增加和成本增加以及更高的薪酬支出所抵消。根據這些假設，2018 年調整後的稀釋每股收益為 5.81 美元至 5.91 美元，比 2017 年調整後的每股收益 4.21 美元增長 38% 至 40%。

We expect adjusted EBITDA will total $3.45 billion to $3.495 billion, a 10% to 12% increase over the 2017 adjusted EBITDA. Investment spending for 2018 could total $800 million to $900 million, an increase of $200 million from our last forecast due to the $255 million purchase of the Sheraton Grand Phoenix, offset by reductions in other spending. Maintenance and spending -- maintenance spending in 2018 should total $225 million.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 總額將達到 34.5 億美元至 34.95 億美元，比 2017 年調整後的 EBITDA 成長 10% 至 12%。2018 年的投資支出總額可能達到 8 億至 9 億美元，比我們上次的預測增加了 2 億美元，因為斥資 2.55 億美元購買了鳳凰城喜來登大酒店，但其他支出有所減少，抵消了這一增長。維護與支出－2018 年的維護支出總額應為 2.25 億美元。

Year-to-date, we've recycled more than $500 million of capital through asset sales and loan repayments. We repurchased over 14 million shares from January 1 through yesterday for approximately $1.9 billion. With the benefit of higher anticipated earnings and cash flow, we now expect to return over $3.1 billion to shareholders through share repurchase and dividends in 2018.

今年迄今為止，我們已透過資產出售和貸款償還回收了超過 5 億美元的資金。從1月1日至昨天，我們回購了超過1,400萬股股票，總金額約19億美元。由於預期收益和現金流增加，我們現在預計將在 2018 年透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還超過 31 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains in great shape. At June 30, our debt levels were consistent with our targeted credit standard of 3x to 3.25x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDAR.

我們的資產負債表依然保持良好狀態。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的債務水準符合我們設定的信貸標準，即調整後債務與調整後 EBITDAR 比率為 3 倍至 3.25 倍。

We appreciate your interest in Marriott. (Operator Instructions) We'll take your questions now.

感謝您對萬豪酒店的關注。（操作說明）現在開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from Harry Curtis with Instinet.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Instinet 公司的 Harry Curtis。

Most of the questions we've been getting surround the reduced NUG growth estimate. And I wonder if you could give us more detail on a couple of things, which include, is -- first of all, is this, do you think, kind of a onetime surge in deletions? How might -- how long might this last? It sounds to me like you feel that this -- that the deletion rate normalizes next year, but to what degree do you have confidence in that? How much visibility have you got there?

我們收到的大部分問題都圍繞著 NUG 成長預期下調。我想知道您能否就以下幾個問題提供更多細節，其中包括——首先，您認為這是一次性的刪除激增嗎？這種情況可能會持續多久？聽起來你似乎認為——刪除率明年會恢復正常——但你對此有多大信心？你們那裡的能見度如何？

The -- let me maybe first say NUG, I think you're referring to net unit growth as opposed to another brand. We do have a few brands but NUG is, I think, not one of them. But you're right to raise the question obviously from our guidance a quarter ago, we have assumed a higher level of deletions this quarter than we did then. And it's important, I think, that we all try to understand what's driving that. I think the place I would start is not about deletions but is about development because I think the core question which should be addressed here is what does it say, if anything, about our owning partners' appetite to grow with us and to affiliate their hotels with us. And we -- what we're seeing in the development side is a much more powerful indication of the strength of our brands than anything that the deletion data would tell you. In Q2, for example, we signed -- we added 40,000 new rooms to the pipeline in newly approved deals or newly signed deals that had not been counted before, 241 hotels. If you do the math, that's adding a hotel a little more frequently than once every 9 hours. And that shows you that around the world, our owners are saying these are brands that we want to affiliate with, and we're prepared to put substantial capital behind that desire. What's happened though in the last quarter or so is we've continued to make progress on a number of things which ultimately impact deletions. And of course, each hotel is its own story. The deletions in the second quarter were only about 18 hotels, but they are the most recent ones that left our system. And what we see is about 20% of them, by definition older assets, are contract expirations. And while contracts when they expire can often be renewed, the core issue there is usually does it make sense for additional capital to be invested in those hotels to bring them up to current standards? Or are they sort of beyond that point from an economic perspective? And typically, at expiration, obviously, it's a meaningful question. And so we lost some hotels from that perspective. About 30% of the rooms that came out in the second quarter, came out because of hurricanes or earthquakes. And while they may come back into our system at some point in time, we looked at the circumstances of those hotels and thought it could be years before they reenter our system. And rather than keep them in our unit count, let's take them out. And the balance in the quarter, and I think to many -- in many respects, the increase in the deletion estimate for the year is driven by a mix of product quality issues. They can be quite unique sometimes that, again -- but it's driven by the economics of each individual hotel. And while we would like to keep hotels in the system if they could be brought up to standards, if they can't get the capital that's necessary in order for them to stay in the system, we just assume that they left. Sometimes, obviously, we have a different point of view with our owners about the positioning of these assets, and we work through that and see if we can come to a resolution that makes the most sense. I think the last thing I'd say here, Harry, and suggested in your question too, we do not think this is a new deletion rate that we're going to experience for years to come in the future. I think this is a mix of pushing product quality issues. I think it is a mix, to some extent, of dealing with some unresolved legacy workout issues that were within the Starwood portfolio when we closed the transaction. Some of those deals have not been resolved, and we're working our way through them towards resolution. And hopefully, we'll get back more to the 1% to 1.5% kind of deletion range that we've talked about the last couple of years for the years to come.

——讓我先說 NUG，我認為你指的是淨單位成長，而不是另一個品牌。我們確實有一些品牌，但我想 NUG 不在其中。但您提出的問題是正確的，顯然根據我們上個季度的預期，我們假設本季的刪除量會比當時更高。我認為，我們都應該努力理解背後的驅動因素，這一點非常重要。我認為應該從發展入手，而不是從刪除入手，因為我認為這裡應該解決的核心問題是，這是否說明了我們的合作夥伴有意願與我們共同發展，並將他們的酒店與我們聯繫起來。而我們從發展方面看到的，比刪除數據所能告訴你的任何東西，都更能有力地表明我們品牌的實力。例如，在第二季度，我們簽約了——我們在新批准的交易或新簽署的交易中，為項目儲備增加了 40,000 間新客房，這些交易以前沒有被計入，涉及 241 家酒店。算一下就知道，這意味著每 9 小時就要增加一家飯店，頻率略高於每 9 小時一家。這向你表明，在世界各地，我們的所有者都表示，這些是我們想要與之合作的品牌，我們準備為此投入大量資金。不過，在過去一個季度左右的時間裡，我們在許多最終會影響刪除操作的事情上持續取得了進展。當然，每家酒店都有自己的故事。第二季刪除的飯店只有大約 18 家，但它們是最近離開我們系統的飯店。我們看到，其中約有 20% 是到期資產，根據定義，這些資產屬於較老的資產。雖然合約到期後通常可以續簽，但核心問題通常是，向這些酒店投入額外資金使其達到當前標準是否合理？或者從經濟角度來看，他們已經超越了那個階段？而且通常來說，到期時，這顯然是一個有意義的問題。所以從這個角度來看，我們失去了一些酒店。第二季拆除的房屋中，約有 30% 是因為颶風或地震而拆除的。雖然這些酒店可能在某個時候重新進入我們的系統，但我們考察了這些酒店的情況，認為它們可能需要數年時間才能重新進入我們的系統。與其將它們保留在我們的單位數量中，不如將它們移除。而本季的餘額，我認為在很多方面，全年刪除估計值的增加是由一系列產品品質問題造成的。它們有時可能非常獨特，但這是受每家酒店的經濟狀況所驅動的。雖然我們希望能夠將飯店保留在系統中，前提是它們能夠達到標準，但如果它們無法獲得留在系統中所需的資金，我們就只能認為它們已經退出了。顯然，有時我們和所有者對於這些資產的定位會有不同的看法，我們會努力解決這個問題，看看能否找到最合理的解決方案。哈里，我想最後再說一點，也是你問題中提到的，我們認為這種新的刪除率在未來幾年內不會出現。我認為這其中既有產品品質問題，也有其他一些問題。我認為這在某種程度上是多種因素共同作用的結果，包括處理我們在完成交易時喜達屋投資組合中一些尚未解決的遺留問題。有些交易尚未達成最終協議，我們正在努力逐一解決。希望在未來幾年，我們能將刪除率恢復到過去幾年我們一直在討論的 1% 到 1.5% 的範圍內。

That's helpful. Maybe just a little bit more history here. When you acquired Starwood, the brand that seemed to be the most in need of attention was the Sheraton brand. Perhaps you could help us by giving your perspective on a scale of 1 to 10, where do you believe the Sheraton brand is relative to where you want it to be within the next year or so.

那很有幫助。或許還可以再補充一些歷史背景。在收購喜達屋酒店集團時，最需要關注的品牌似乎是喜來登品牌。或許您可以幫我們評估一下，您認為喜來登品牌目前處於什麼位置，以及您希望它在未來一年左右達到什麼位置。評估標準為 1 到 10 分。

We're making great progress on Sheraton, and we've, obviously, had lots of dialogue with our Sheraton owners around the world. About a year ago, we settled on a sort of prototype for the regular guest room in the Sheraton brand. In June of this year, we rolled out a new idea for the public space for the Sheraton brand, which we did at the lodging conference in New York 1st of June and have had tremendous response from our owners and franchisees to what we're doing with the brand. When we look at the portfolio around the world, what we see is about 75% of the Sheraton portfolio is on its way towards meeting those brand standards. Now that includes those that are already there as well as hotels which are scheduled for renovation or maybe even under renovation, leaving about 1/4, which we're in discussions with most of those owners to see if we can't get to a place where the renovation is going to be done to bring it up to brand standards. And obviously, it's in that bucket that we have some deletions from the system, which we're certainly happy to take, because long term, we think we're going to strengthen the brand. RevPAR index for the brand is now above fair share, which -- it's moved a bit since we closed. I think it's got a significant movement ahead of it if we can deliver the kind of capital and reinvention of the brand that's necessary. So I think we feel really good about the momentum we've got for plans for the hotels. I think in terms of the customer experience, we've got to get more of these renovations actually completed and available to customers before they will start to see the average experience of the Sheratons move materially.

我們在喜來登酒店專案上取得了巨大進展，而且顯然，我們已經與世界各地的喜來登酒店業主進行了大量的對話。大約一年前，我們確定了喜來登品牌常規客房的某種原型。今年六月，我們為喜來登品牌推出了一項新的公共空間理念，我們在 6 月 1 日於紐約舉行的酒店業會議上進行了展示，並得到了業主和加盟商的熱烈反響。當我們審視全球範圍內的酒店組合時，我們發現喜來登旗下約 75% 的酒店正在朝著達到這些品牌標準的方向發展。這其中包括已經開業的酒店，以及計劃翻新或正在翻新的酒店，還剩下大約 1/4 的酒店，我們正在與其中大多數業主進行討論，看看我們能否找到一家願意進行翻新的酒店，使其達到品牌標準。顯然，在這個範疇內，我們會從系統中刪除一些內容，我們當然樂於接受這些刪除，因為從長遠來看，我們認為這將加強品牌。該品牌的RevPAR指數目前高於公平份額，而且——自從我們上次關閉以來，它已經有所變化。我認為，如果我們能夠提供必要的資金並重塑品牌，它將迎來巨大的發展機會。所以我覺得我們對酒店計劃的進展勢頭非常樂觀。我認為就顧客體驗而言，我們必須先完成更多此類翻新工程並向顧客開放，顧客才會開始感受到喜來登酒店的平均體驗有實質性的改善。

Your next question is from David Beckel with Bernstein Research.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的戴維‧貝克爾。

I'll just ask a high-level question about RevPAR expectations this time relative to last quarter. Obviously, a lot has happened geopolitically. Are you hearing anything from executives that would cause you to be more concerned about the back half relative to last time we spoke?

我只想問一個關於本季與上季相比的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）預期的高層次問題。顯然，地緣政治領域發生了許多變化。與上次我們談話相比，您從高階主管那裡聽到什麼消息，讓您對下半年的業績更加擔憂？

Yes. So good question, and we were very deliberate about using the phrase steady as she goes in the prepared remarks. I think we could probably describe good news and bad news here. So to -- for the optimists who are showing up at this call and saying, "Okay, we had a 4% GDP print in the United States in Q2. That should drive faster RevPAR growth maybe even in Q2. Maybe you should build that into your Q3 or Q4 numbers." We have not seen that higher GDP growth show up in higher demand either in our system or in the industry. In fact, if you look at Smith Travel data, rooms sold in the United States, which is, obviously, demand, in Q1, demand was up 3%; in Q2, demand was up 3.1%. So essentially identical. And in many respects, our system very much shows the same thing.

是的。問得好，我們在準備好的發言稿中特意使用了「穩步前進」這個短語。我認為我們可以在這裡描述好消息和壞消息。所以，對於那些到場參加電話會議並表示「好吧，美國第二季GDP成長了4%」的樂觀主義者們，我想說：這應該會推動RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）更快成長，甚至可能在第二季就實現。或許你應該把這一點納入第三季或第四季的業績預期中。 「我們尚未看到更高的GDP成長轉化為更高的需求，無論是在我們的系統內還是在整個產業內。事實上，如果你查看史密斯旅遊公司的數據，你會發現美國客房的銷售情況（顯然，這代表了需求），第一季需求增加了 3%；第二季需求增加了 3.1%。本質上是一樣的。在很多方面，我們的製度也體現了這一點。

When you adjust for the calendar anomalies, I think our first 2 quarters, one was 2.3% and one was 2.5% RevPAR growth so, essentially, identical numbers. Similarly, and this is repeating what we said in the prepared remarks, but when we look at Q3 and Q4, if you're worried that the 1.5% to 2% U.S. system-wide number is concerning, don't. It is not a sign of softening. It is very much an impact of the calendar or comparison anomalies. July 4 midweek, obviously, you've already heard about it from other companies in this space. We've got some shifting holidays, but probably the most significant thing in the back half of the year is the RevPAR comparisons get tougher because of the strength of the hurricane recovery efforts in Houston and Florida, particularly last year. And when you adjust for those things, what we are seeing in our guidance built in is about a 2.5% RevPAR growth through the balance of the year. And so it's very much steady as she goes. We see under that probably still somewhat greater strength in the leisure segment. In the group space, the corporate group is stronger than the associate group, and the corporate transient is probably right in the middle.

如果考慮到日曆異常情況，我認為我們前兩個季度的RevPAR成長率分別為2.3%和2.5%，所以本質上是相同的數字。同樣地，這重複了我們在準備好的發言稿中所說的，但是當我們看一下第三季度和第四季度時，如果你擔心美國系統整體的 1.5% 到 2% 的數字令人擔憂，那就不必擔心了。這並非軟化的跡象。這很大程度是日曆誤差或比較誤差造成的。顯然，7月4日是周中，你已經從這個領域的其他公司聽說了這件事。雖然假期有所調整，但下半年最重要的變化可能是，由於休士頓和佛羅裡達州（尤其是去年）颶風災後重建工作的力度，每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的比較變得更加困難。考慮到這些因素，我們預計今年剩餘時間內每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長約 2.5%。所以她一路都很穩健。我們認為休閒娛樂領域可能仍保持著較強勁的成長動能。在群體空間中，企業群體比關聯群體更強，而企業臨時群體可能正好處於中間位置。

That's very helpful. And just as a quick follow-up to that, the group booking strength that you've seen and called out in your prepared remarks, how much of that relates to the reduction in commissions and folks wanting to try to book group activity in advance of that change?

那很有幫助。最後，我想快速補充一點，您在準備好的演講稿中提到了團體預訂的強勁勢頭，這其中有多少與佣金減少以及人們希望在政策變化之前預訂團體活動有關？

That's a really important point to raise. Our group bookings in the first quarter for all future periods were very, very strong. One of the reasons, perhaps the most significant reason for that, was our reduced commission rates took effect April 1. And so with a number of group intermediaries, they were accelerating their efforts to make sure they were booking before lower commission rates impacted them. I think, similarly, when you look across the industry, you've had a number of other companies decide that they would reduce group commissions too. None of those group commission -- lower group commission levels are in place yet, and I think they will be rolling in for some other companies effective in the fall or the first of the year. And so that will have a little bit of a dynamic to the way group business is booked. Having said that, I think many of the end consumers for group business are maybe not ambivalent about what the group commission levels are, but they're going to be much more interested in where they should hold their meeting, both in terms of services and facilities, and we think we'll continue to compete very well in that space.

這一點非常重要。第一季所有未來時段的團體預約情況都非常非常強勁。其中一個原因，或許也是最重要的原因，是我們降低佣金率的政策於 4 月 1 日生效。因此，許多集團中介機構都在加快步伐，以確保在佣金率降低對他們產生影響之前完成預訂。我認為，同樣地，放眼整個產業，你會發現許多其他公司也決定降低團體佣金。目前還沒有降低團體佣金水準的方案，我認為其他一些公司將在秋季或今年年初開始實施這些方案。因此，這將對團體業務的預訂方式產生一些影響。話雖如此，我認為團體業務的許多最終消費者可能並不關心團體佣金水平，但他們更關心的是在哪裡舉辦會議，包括服務和設施方面，我們認為我們將繼續在這個領域保持良好的競爭力。

Your next question is from Smedes Rose with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的斯梅德斯·羅斯。

I just wanted to ask you, with the loyalty program now on a path to be more fully integrated from the consumer perspective, it seems like the next phase of the Starwood acquisition maybe is going to be measured by what happens on the revenue side versus on the expense side, which, I guess, is kind of largely behind you now. So how can you -- will you think about kind of communicating to the Street your gains presumably in market share or RevPAR index? Or is that something that you can sort of provide now as a baseline so that we can measure or you can talk about in a year from now, kind of where that is?

我只是想問一下，隨著忠誠度計劃從消費者角度來看正朝著更加全面整合的方向發展，喜達屋收購的下一階段似乎將以收入方面的變化來衡量，而不是以支出方面的變化來衡量，而支出方面的變化，我想，現在基本上已經過去了。那麼，您會如何——您會考慮如何向華爾街傳達您在市場份額或每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 指數方面取得的進展？或者，您現在可以提供一個基準，以便我們進行衡量，或者您可以在一年後討論一下，情況大概如何？

Yes, the -- we love the optimism in your question, and we have the same optimism. We think going to one set of channel platform, so that's the websites and the apps and the rest of it as well as one loyalty program, all of which happens August 18, will be a powerful positive for the system. As we mentioned, we won't get to one name for the loyalty program until sometime early in 2019, but we will have one program as of the 18th of August. That means, of course, that loyalty members can get credit for elite status or stays in the Marriott and Starwood Hotels. Previously, you had to earn your status in one platform or the other. It also means that points being earned and points being redeemed don't need to be transferred between accounts. And maybe most powerfully, it means that customers will show up on our website and they will see the whole portfolio instead of having to toggle back and forth between 2 different portfolios. We think all of those should drive increased share of wallet, greater strength in the loyalty program. We'll be looking at measures like size of the loyalty program, number of members. We'll be looking at contribution of the loyalty program to hotels, and we'll, of course, be looking at RevPAR index. It is a very hard thing to predict what the upside's going to be, but we're optimistic that we will see greater strength from this stronger loyalty program, and we'll do our best to communicate with you about the actual results we achieve. One other thing I'd mention. I -- we don't think we're done on the cost side. Leeny mentioned the 60 basis points margin growth in both international markets and the U.S. market in Q2. That is, we think, very strong performance given the relatively modest RevPAR levels. We've also got some further cost synergies, which we'll be rolling out to the hotels in the balance of 2018, and we know that we're going to deliver efficiencies into 2019 and 2020. So we want very much to drive both top line and margin improvement for the portfolio of hotels in the next couple of years.

是的，我們很喜歡你問題中的樂觀精神，我們也同樣樂觀。我們認為，從 8 月 18 日起，統一採用一套通路平台（包括網站、應用程式等）以及一個會員忠誠度計劃，將對系統產生強大的正面影響。正如我們之前提到的，我們可能要到 2019 年初才會確定忠誠度計劃的最終名稱，但從 8 月 18 日起，我們將推出一個計劃。當然，這意味著忠誠會員可以獲得精英會員資格積分或萬豪酒店和喜達屋酒店的住宿積分。以前，你必須在某個平台上獲得相應的地位。這也意味著，賺取的積分和兌換的積分不需要在帳戶之間轉移。或許最重要的是，這意味著客戶造訪我們的網站後，將看到整個作品集，而無需在兩個不同的作品集之間來回切換。我們認為所有這些因素都應該能夠提高消費者錢包份額，並增強忠誠度計畫的實力。我們將檢視諸如會員計畫規模、會員數等指標。我們將檢視忠誠度計畫對飯店的貢獻，當然，我們也會檢視每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）指數。預測其潛在收益非常困難，但我們樂觀地認為，更強大的會員忠誠度計劃將會帶來更大的收益，我們將盡最大努力與您溝通我們所取得的實際成果。還有一點我想提一下。我認為——我們在成本方面還沒有完成。Leeny提到，第二季國際市場和美國市場的利潤率均成長了60個基點。我們認為，考慮到相對較低的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）水平，這已經是非常強勁的業績了。我們還有一些進一步的成本協同效應，我們將在 2018 年剩餘的時間裡推廣到各個酒店，我們知道我們將在 2019 年和 2020 年實現效率提升。因此，我們非常希望在未來幾年內提​​高旗下飯店組合的營收和利潤率。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to ask one question. Some owners, the REITs have talked about poor sales bookings at formerly managed Starwood Hotels, transitions around the sales force. And I'm just wondering, is that process largely finished now? Or is there any kind of additional detail that you can add maybe from your guys' perspective versus what we've heard from owners?

好的。那很有幫助。然後我只想問一個問題。一些業主，房地產投資信託基金，談到了以前由喜達屋酒店集團管理的酒店銷售預訂情況不佳，以及銷售團隊的變動。我想知道，這個過程現在基本上已經完成了嗎？或者，從你們的角度來看，能否補充一些細節，與我們從車主那裡聽到的說法有所不同？

Yes. So we've seen a few of those comments and seen a couple of references to this in some of the early notes that were published. And I'll try not to go on too long here, but I want to make sure that we talk about this a little bit. The best indication, obviously, about the way hotels are performing is RevPAR index numbers. And as we've talked about for the last few years, RevPAR index is a rollup of each hotel's performance against typically the 5 or 6 hotels that are most relevant in their competitive set. Typically, those are going to be similarly positioned in the chain scales, in the same geographic market. Sometimes, if they're in the luxury space or they're in the group space, the geography could be a little bit broader in order to get hotels that are similar. But they're the hotels that have been picked by Marriott and by the owners to say, "Okay, this is the group that is most germane to assessing the relative performance of this hotel." And as we said in our prepared remarks, we have increased index about 120 basis points over the last 12 months, which with a portfolio of this size and the kind of work that's been underway on integration and all the other things that is underway here at Marriott, is fabulously strong results.

是的。所以我們已經看到了一些這樣的評論，並且在一些早期發布的筆記中也看到了一些相關的提及。我盡量不在這裡說太久，但我希望我們能稍微談談這件事。顯然，衡量飯店經營狀況的最佳指標是每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）指數。正如我們過去幾年一直在討論的那樣，RevPAR 指數是將每家酒店的表現與通常與其競爭中最相關的 5 或 6 家酒店的表現進行比較而得出的。通常情況下，這些產品在連鎖秤中的位置相似，位於同一地理市場。有時，如果他們追求的是豪華酒店或團體酒店，那麼為了找到類似的酒店，搜尋範圍可能會稍微擴大一些。但這些酒店都是萬豪酒店集團和業主共同挑選出來的，目的是說：「好的，這組酒店最能代表這家酒店的相對錶現。」正如我們在事先準備好的發言稿中所說，過去12個月裡，我們將指數提高了約120個基點，考慮到如此龐大的投資組合，以及萬豪酒店集團正在進行的整合和其他各項工作，這無疑是非常強勁的成績。

And again, the loyalty program has not been merged yet, so we think we've got upside ahead of us. I think also, you can look at a little less precise data, but you can look at RevPAR growth for the Legacy-Marriott Hotels and the Legacy-Starwood Hotels. I think it's interesting to note that the Legacy-Starwood Hotels are posting RevPAR growth numbers that are comparable, if not even a little bit higher, than the Legacy-Marriott Hotels. One last thing before getting to the comments that were made by -- in some other companies. We have a portfolio of hotels, about 70 hotels, if memory serves, that we describe as our convention resort network. And they tend to be the big hotels. They are the ones most reliant on the sales force because they are most reliant on group. And when we look at the performance of those hotels, both Legacy-Marriott and Legacy-Starwood Hotels, we see RevPAR index up a full point in the last 3 months and a bit more than a full point in the last 12 months. So that -- all of that would say there is nothing systemically that we see that would suggest the integration is sort of negatively impacting the system. Now we've seen the comments made. I won't go through each one of them and I'm not going to name which hotel even I'm talking about, but I thought it was interesting that one of the companies talked about a specific hotel and its relatively soft performance in Q2. We know by looking backwards that, that hotel had weak group bookings on the books well before Marriott acquired Starwood for these periods in 2018. And in fact, in the second quarter of 2018, that hotel had an increase in bookings for future periods of 38% compared to prior times. And that's the first quarter when they had the new integrated sales force working for it. And so again, each hotel is going to have a different story. We're not saying for a second that there couldn't be circumstances in which there has been staffing implications to the integration that's been done or there've been distractions or there've been other issues, but what we see generally across the system is not an integration impact to the performance that we've had, but just the reverse, a remarkable strength in the midst of all the change which is underway.

而且，會員忠誠度計畫尚未合併，所以我們認為未來還有很大的發展空間。我認為，你也可以參考一些不太精確的數據，例如前萬豪酒店和前喜達屋酒店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長情況。值得注意的是，原喜達屋酒店集團的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長數據與原萬豪酒店集團相當，甚至可能略高一些。在討論其他一些公司發表的評論之前，還有最後一點要說明。我們擁有大約 70 家酒店，如果我沒記錯的話，我們稱之為我們的會議度假酒店網絡。而且它們往往是大型酒店。他們最依賴銷售團隊，因為他們最依賴團隊。當我們觀察這些飯店（包括萬豪酒店集團旗下飯店和喜達屋酒店集團旗下飯店）的表現時，我們發現過去 3 個月的每間可供出租客房收入指數上升了一個百分點，過去 12 個月的上升幅度略超過一個百分點。所以——所有這些都表明，我們沒有看到任何系統性的跡象表明這種整合會對系統產生負面影響。現在我們已經看到了這些評論。我不會逐一介紹，也不會透露我指的是哪家酒店，但我認為有趣的是，其中一家公司談到了某家酒店及其在第二季度相對疲軟的業績。回顧歷史，我們知道，早在萬豪收購喜達屋之前，這家飯店的團體預訂量在 2018 年就已十分疲軟。事實上，2018 年第二季度，該飯店未來一段時間的預訂量比以往成長了 38%。那是他們啟用新的整合銷售團隊後的第一個季度。所以，每家旅館都會有不同的故事。我們絲毫沒有否認，整合過程中可能存在人員配備方面的影響，或者存在一些幹擾因素或其他問題，但我們總體上在整個系統中看到的不是整合對績效的影響，而是恰恰相反，在正在進行的所有變革中，績效反而呈現出顯著的提升。

The next question is from Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的費利西亞·亨德里克斯。

So just kind of along those lines, just in terms of the puts and takes of the RevPAR results, the North America RevPAR results in the second quarter, to what extent were they impacted? What would have your RevPAR looked like if you wanted to kind of smooth out for the sales force transition? And then also as you're thinking about your guidance for the third quarter, how much have you accounted for in that or maybe for just the second half?

所以，就RevPAR業績的供需關係而言，第二季北美RevPAR業績在多大程度上受到了影響？如果您希望平穩過渡銷售團隊，您的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將會是什麼樣子？另外，在考慮第三季業績指引時，您在第三季或下半年分別考慮了多少因素？

Okay. So I won't repeat everything I just said, Felicia, but...

好的。所以，菲莉西亞，我不會重複我剛才說的話，但是…

No, I don't want you to.

不，我不想讓你這麼做。

We do not think there was any impact in Q2, and we do not think there is any impact in Q3 or Q4. So to the extent anybody is thinking the Q3 or Q4 guidance numbers we put out there are somehow lower than they would be because of integration concerns, that is not the case.

我們認為第二季度沒有受到任何影響，也不認為第三季或第四季受到任何影響。因此，如果有人認為我們發布的第三季或第四季業績指引數字低於預期是因為整合方面的考慮，那麼事實並非如此。

Okay. You were talking about -- I heard you talk about index and I heard all of that. I just didn't know if there was a different way to translate it. Okay, let's move on then. Just -- I wanted to get -- just again on the unit -- the net unit growth because I was just -- in the quarter, there seemed to -- you gave guidance in April, so something happened in the quarter, right? So just wondering how much of the greater-than-expected deletions was due to the Dubai hotels. And then also looking at 2019, can we expect that you get back to that net unit growth of closer to 5.5% to 6%?

好的。你剛才在談論——我聽到你談到了索引，我聽到了所有這些。我只是不知道有沒有其他翻譯方式。好的，那我們繼續吧。我只是想再次了解淨單位增長情況，因為我剛剛——在這個季度，似乎——您在四月份給出了業績指引，所以這個季度發生了一些事情，對吧？所以我想知道，超出預期的刪除量中有多少是由於迪拜酒店造成的。那麼展望 2019 年，我們能否期待你們的淨單位成長率恢復到接近 5.5% 至 6% 的水平？

Yes. So a few questions in there. But interestingly and maybe a little bit ironically, the deletions we actually experienced in Q2 were half as many rooms as we experienced in Q1. And so as much as we would -- it might be more concrete to be able to look at the higher deletion number and what actually happened in Q2. The higher deletion guidance we've given you is really based on what we anticipate in Q3 and Q4. The Dubai hotels that you referenced are not in the Q2 numbers because they actually were not deflagged until July 1, if I remember right, or July 31 -- let's see, we're at August 8 -- we're in August now, right? So yes, end of July. So that will be a Q3 number. What we're anticipating in Q3 and Q4, and it's based on discussions underway as much as some decisions that have already been made and implemented, is that for a mix of reasons, we're going to see a bit higher deletions. The 2 -- we've tried to call out and I maybe babbled on too long a little bit and clouded this, but product quality is certainly a piece of it and we are being tougher on that. I think another point that we have called out is, there were a number of workout discussions that Starwood had not resolved, I think in part simply because of the pendency of our deal or the sale of that company. And our teams have been working with owners to try and get those resolved. And those discussions sometimes lead to hotels leaving the system as opposed to staying in. The only last thing I'd say, I think, and I don't want to be pollyannish about this, but when you look at something like what happened in Dubai, we are confident that each of the 3 brands we have represented there will be replaced with product that we could be very proud of in that market in the fairly near term.

是的。所以裡面有幾個問題。但有趣的是，或許還有點諷刺的是，我們在第二季實際刪除的房間數量只有第一季刪除房間數量的一半。因此，儘管我們很想——但或許更具體的做法是查看更高的刪除數量以及第二季度實際發生的情況。我們先前給予的較高裁員預期，實際上是基於我們對第三季和第四季的預期。您提到的迪拜酒店沒有計入第二季度數據，因為如果我沒記錯的話，它們實際上直到 7 月 1 日或 7 月 31 日才取消標記——讓我看看，現在是 8 月 8 日——現在已經是 8 月了，對吧？是的，七月底。所以這將是第三季的數據。我們預計在第三季和第四季度，由於各種原因，刪除數量會略有增加，這既基於正在進行的討論，也基於一些已經做出和實施的決定。2——我們已經嘗試指出這一點，我可能有點囉嗦，把事情搞複雜了，但產品品質肯定是其中的一部分，我們在這方面會更加嚴格。我認為我們提出的另一點是，喜達屋還有一些重組方面的討論尚未解決，我認為部分原因只是因為我們的交易或該公司的出售尚未完成。我們的團隊一直在與業主合作，努力解決這些問題。而這些討論有時會導致飯店退出該系統，而不是繼續留在該系統內。最後我想說的是，雖然我不想過於樂觀，但看看迪拜發生的事情，我們有信心，我們在迪拜代理的三個品牌都會在不久的將來被我們引以為豪的產品所取代。

Okay, that's helpful. But as we just -- for modeling purposes, are you more comfortable in 2019 with that 5 number or with where you've been more recently?

好的，這很有幫助。但是，就建模而言，您在 2019 年更傾向於數字 5，還是更傾向於您最近的位置？

I -- we don't have a '19 number for you right now. We, obviously, haven't built our '19 budget. I do think that the deletions at 2% are likely to go back down into that 1% to 1.5% range, and you should not view 2% as being the sort of new expectation.

我—我們現在沒有你的 '19 號碼。顯然，我們還沒有製定 2019 年的預算。我認為 2% 的刪除率很可能會回落到 1% 到 1.5% 的範圍內，你不應該把 2% 視為新的預期。

Your next question is from David Katz with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·卡茨。

So we've -- I think we've covered the unit growth discussion fairly well. But one of the issues I wanted to address is we've always looked at the Marriott brand and where it sits in the hierarchy with Sheraton and Westin and the degree to which those are either overlapping or bumping up against them -- bumping up against each other in the development community, can you just give us a little color around how that is progressing? I know there was some repositioning around Marriott early on -- rather, Sheraton early on.

所以，我認為我們已經相當全面地討論了單位成長問題。但我想解決的問題之一是，我們一直在關注萬豪品牌，以及它在與喜來登和威斯汀的等級制度中的位置，以及它們在多大程度上相互重疊或碰撞——在開發領域相互碰撞，您能否給我們介紹一下這方面的進展情況？我知道萬豪酒店早期進行過一些重新定位——更確切地說，是喜來登酒店早期進行過一些重新定位。

Yes. I hope I understand your question, Dave. And I mean, we've got, obviously, Marriott, Sheraton, Westin. We've also got JW Marriott and Delta all in the upper-upscale full-service space. Obviously, those brands come from 2 different legacy portfolios, and they were often competing head-to-head. Now each of those brands would have said that they were better than the competitors' brands in the same space. They're all now part of ours. And if what you're getting at is how do we essentially target each of those brands to minimize the -- both customer confusion and, I guess, the overlap, that's what our brand teams are hard at work at. And they are hard at work at it with our owner and franchise partners. Sheraton is the one we've talked about the most because Sheraton has needed it the most. And I think what we're seeing is good buy-in from our owners and franchisees to move the average quality of the Sheraton portfolio up meaningfully from what it was when we closed on the acquisition of Starwood. It probably on average will be a fraction lower than where the core Marriott brand is. But that -- stress the word -- the words on average, because depending on the market, we will have one that's positioned a little bit differently than another. The, obviously, by definition, full-service hotels have been opened and developed over many decades and location will still feel quite important to this. And that's a comment that could easily be applied to the brands that have got a bit more of a lifestyle flavor too. We've got Renaissance and Meridien that are both also in this full-service space, and they are each been positioned true to the heritage that they've had. And I -- again, I think we're making really good progress on it. And you can look at this and say it's a monumental task to get these brands with some distinctions between them. But we can also look at them and say it's an extraordinary opportunity to have this kind of distribution in an economically significant space and a space which is really important for our loyalty members and our group customers to have some choice and to have the kind of product and services that we can deliver across this portfolio. So we wouldn't want to be without any single one of these brands.

是的。戴夫，我希望我理解了你的問題。當然，我們還有萬豪酒店、喜來登酒店和威斯汀酒店。我們還有 JW 萬豪酒店和達美航空，它們都屬於高檔全方位服務酒店。顯然，這些品牌來自兩個不同的歷史產品組合，它們經常正面競爭。現在，每個品牌都會聲稱自己在同一領域比競爭對手的品牌更好。他們現在都是我們的一部分了。如果你指的是我們如何針對每個品牌進行精準行銷，以最大限度地減少客戶的困惑以及品牌重疊，那麼這就是我們的品牌團隊正在努力的方向。他們正與我們的業主和加盟合作夥伴一起努力實現這一目標。我們之所以談論喜來登酒店最多，是因為喜來登酒店最需要這些討論。我認為我們看到的是，我們的業主和加盟商都非常支持將喜來登酒店集團的平均品質顯著提升，使其與我們收購喜達屋時相比有了很大的進步。平均而言，它可能比萬豪核心品牌的價格略低。但是——強調這個詞——是平均而言的詞語，因為根據市場情況，一個詞語的定位會與其他詞語略有不同。顯然，從定義上講，全方位服務的酒店是經過幾十年的發展和建設的，地理位置仍然非常重要。這則評論同樣適用於那些更俱生活方式元素的品牌。我們還有萬麗酒店和艾美酒店，它們也都提供全方位服務，而且它們都忠實地傳承了各自的傳統。而且我——再次強調，我認為我們在這方面取得了非常好的進展。你可以看看這個，然後說，要讓這些品牌之間有所區別，是一項艱鉅的任務。但我們也可以這樣看待它們，並認為這是一個難得的機會，可以在一個具有重要經濟意義的領域，以及一個對我們的忠誠會員和集團客戶來說非常重要的領域，擁有這種分銷渠道，讓他們有一些選擇，並獲得我們能夠通過這一產品組合提供的產品和服務。所以，我們不想失去這些品牌中的任何一個。

Your next question is from Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

Just a quick question. On the previous earnings call, you had noted that your group revenue-booking pace for luxury and upper-upscales was up 1% to 2% for the second half of this year. What does that comparable figure stand at today?

問個小問題。在上一次財報電話會議上，您曾提到，今年下半年貴集團豪華酒店和高端酒店的預訂收入增速為 1% 至 2%。如今，這個相對數字是多少？

It's about the same.

差不多。

Unchanged? Okay.

未改變？好的。

Yes.

是的。

Your next question is from Robin Farley with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

Two questions. One is just on the issue of the unit growth. Just looking at it in the slides where you show conversions as a percent of your pipeline, it shows about 2%. And one of your other large competitors is talking about conversions being about 20% of their pipeline. I don't know if you and they are sort of measuring it in different ways, but that's such a big difference. I don't know if you have any thoughts on why your conversion assets -- are you not capturing conversions or something? Or are you just measuring it differently in these 2 metrics?

兩個問題。其中一個問題是關於單位成長的。從投影片中可以看到，轉換率佔銷售管道的百分比約為 2%。而你的另一家大型競爭對手則表示，轉換率約佔其銷售通路的 20%。我不知道你和他們是不是用了不同的方法來衡量，但這差別也太大了。我不知道你對轉換素材的問題有什麼想法──是不是你沒有捕捉到轉換資料之類的？或者說，你只是用不同的方式衡量了這兩個指標？

Sure. I think certainly definitionally, I'm not going to pretend to know how they're included. As you know, conversions can wander into your pipeline and stay there for 1.5 years if there's a meaningful amount of work that needs to be done before it opens or it can literally flip overnight. So we're still in the land where we think a 15% to 20% of our room openings come from conversions, which has been consistent over time that, that's the way it's been. When you think about our Autograph brand as a terrific example and our other soft brands, just terrific pipeline for us. But again, in those situations, they very often don't enter into the pipeline.

當然。我覺得從定義上來說當然是這樣，但我不會假裝知道它們是如何被包含進來的。如您所知，轉換率可能會進入您的銷售管道，如果在此之前需要完成大量工作，轉換率可能會在那裡停留 1.5 年；或者，轉換率也可能在一夜之間發生轉變。所以，我們仍然認為，我們客房開放量的 15% 到 20% 來自轉換，而且這種情況一直持續至今。以我們的 Autograph 品牌為例，再加上我們其他的軟品牌，這對我們來說簡直是絕佳的銷售管道。但同樣，在這些情況下，它們往往不會進入管道。

Okay. No, that's helpful. And then my other question was just when you look at guidance for the second half, adjusting for what you've previously quantified as the impact of holiday shifts and the impact of the sort of hurricane-driven demand, it looks like even though you're giving the same RevPAR guidance for Q3 and Q4, if you back out the comps from the prior year, that you're maybe expecting an acceleration in underlying demand in Q4. And I don't know if you could just give any color around what gives you that or what do you think would be driving that.

好的。不，這很有幫助。我的另一個問題是，當您查看下半年的業績指引時，考慮到您之前量化的假日變化的影響以及颶風引發的需求的影響，即使您對第三季度和第四季度的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 指引相同，但如果剔除上一年的同店銷售額，您可能會預期第四季度的潛在需求會加速增長。我不知道你是否能具體說說是什麼讓你產生這種感覺，或者你認為是什麼因素在驅動這種感覺。

I don't -- I wouldn't interpret what we've said as expecting an acceleration. What we're expecting is very much steady as she goes. The -- adjusted for calendar and comparison issues, we see RevPAR for the first 2 quarters and the last 2 quarters of 2018 as essentially equivalent at about 2.5%.

我不認為——我不會把我們說過的話解讀為預期會出現加速成長。我們預計她會一直保持穩定發展。在調整日曆和比較問題後，我們發現 2018 年前兩個季度和最後兩個季度的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 基本相等，約為 2.5%。

I guess, I'm just thinking about Q4 versus Q3. So but definitely understand what you're saying about second half versus first half. But if, I guess, the impact of hurricane-driven demand and holiday shifts were greater in Q4, so if we back that out for Q4 to be at the same rate as Q3, seems like your underlying...

我猜，我只是在考慮第四季和第三季的差異。所以，我完全理解你說的下半場和上半場的差別。但是，我猜想，颶風引發的需求和假日變化對第四季度的影響更大，所以如果我們把這些因素排除在外，使第四季度的成長率與第三季度持平，那麼你的基本面似乎…

Well, you've got the July 4 timing in Q3, and there may be some -- I can't remember where the Jewish holidays are hitting and exactly how they're hitting. I know our pinpoint calculation for Q3 and Q4 are 0.2 points apart, which, to be fair, is a smaller gap than our accuracy.

嗯，7 月 4 日是第三季度，可能還有一些——我記不清猶太節日具體是什麼時候以及它們會如何影響了。我知道我們對 Q3 和 Q4 的精確計算結果相差 0.2 分，公平地說，這比我們的準確率差距要小。

And believe it or not, there can be also quarter-to-quarter a day of week shift just in terms of how many Tuesday nights there are versus how many Sunday nights there are, and that also is a little bit of a factor between Q3 and Q4.

信不信由你，就季度而言，一周中的某一天也會發生變化，例如周二晚上和周日晚上的數量不同，這也是第三季度和第四季度之間的一個因素。

Your next question is from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Bill Crow。

Arne, I think you mentioned in the formal remarks that part of the pipeline issue was -- or just something that weighed on the pipeline was taking hotels out of the pipeline that had yet to commence construction in a timely manner. And I'm just -- I recall back to the days when a lot of Starwood's peers were suspicious about the actual strength of their pipeline. I'm just wondering whether you've culled the -- fully culled the Starwood portfolio and pulled out any of the maybe phantom deals that were in there.

Arne，我想你在正式發言中提到過，管道問題的一部分是——或者說，阻礙管道建設的因素之一是，一些酒店被從管道沿線移除，而這些酒店尚未及時開工建設。我只是——我記得以前喜達屋的許多同行都對他們的實際實力表示懷疑。我只是想知道你是否已經徹底清理了喜達屋酒店集團的投資組合，並剔除了其中可能存在的虛假交易。

Yes. I don't -- and I wouldn't attribute that mostly to a Starwood -- Legacy-Starwood portfolio. I think that the -- what? 14,000 rooms we deleted, I think, in the quarter, we think we should pull that out, 13,000 or 14,000 that we pulled out of the pipeline. And our team culls through that. I won't say necessarily that every quarter is as intense as the last one. But we were pretty aggressive in this quarter in going through and found, in both the Legacy-Starwood brands and Legacy-Marriott brands, that there were projects that had not moved fast enough. And so we pulled them out of the portfolio. And it does a few -- in some respects, this is not -- it's a little bit bigger number than a typical quarter would be, maybe meaningfully bigger. But it's not a totally unusual thing to discover that the best-laid plans maybe are not coming to fruition with an owner someplace. And I think in the environment that we're in today, we've got still plenty of available capital to invest in new projects. Availability of debt probably is still plentiful, but equity requirements are maybe a little bit higher than they were before. And construction costs are a little bit higher than they were before. And so you end up with some folks who maybe signed that deal a year or 2 ago, and they haven't moved forward. And ultimately, they tell us they're not planning to move forward on it. We'd just as soon cull it out so that we've got that market to pursue with somebody else.

是的。我不這麼認為——而且我也不認為這主要歸因於喜達屋集團——傳統的喜達屋投資組合。我認為——什麼？我認為，本季度我們刪除了 14,000 個房間，我們應該把這 13,000 或 14,000 個房間從專案中移除。我們的團隊會從中篩選出最適合的人選。我不會說每個季度都像上個季度那樣緊張。但是，本季我們採取了相當積極的措施進行審查，發現無論是原喜達屋品牌還是原萬豪品牌，都存在一些項目進展不夠快的情況。因此，我們將它們從投資組合中移除。在某些方面，它確實比一般的季度要大一些，也許大得多。但有時發現，即使是最好的計劃，在某些地方也可能無法實現，這並非完全不尋常的事情。我認為在當今的環境下，我們仍然有大量可用資金可以投資於新項目。債務融資管道可能仍然充足，但股權融資要求可能比以前略高一些。而且建築成本比以前略高。因此，有些人可能在一兩年前就簽了合同，但他們卻一直沒有進展。最後，他們告訴我們，他們不打算繼續推進這個計畫。我們寧願把它剔除出去，這樣我們就可以和其他人一起開拓這個市場了。

Okay, great. And then the follow-up, I guess, NH Hotels appears to be in play. I'm not going to ask you specifically about that. But just your thought now that the -- you've made such progress on the integration of Starwood. Are you ready to get back into the consolidation theme? Or do you think Marriott's set for a while?

好的，太好了。然後，我猜想，NH酒店集團似乎也在考慮之列。我不會專門問你這個問題。但你現在的想法是——你在整合喜達屋方面取得瞭如此大的進展。你準備好重新探討整合主題了嗎？你認為萬豪酒店集團短期內不會有太大變化嗎？

We will continue to look at opportunities that are available. I think as it relates to NH in particular, what looks like Hyatt discovered is Bill Heinecke has that company reasonably well tied up. So I don't think there's much point in talking about that one, as if we would anyway. But we'll see. We're obviously appreciative of the way the Starwood deal has gone so far. We're also very appreciative of the way the organic growth story is going. But as we sit here today, our share of the global hotel business is still not particularly huge. And so I think there's plenty of opportunity to continue to grow.

我們將繼續尋找各種機會。我認為就 NH 而言，凱悅似乎發現比爾海內克已經把這家公司牢牢掌控在手中。所以我覺得討論這個問題意義不大，即便我們真的會討論。但我們拭目以待。我們當然對喜達屋交易目前的進展感到滿意。我們也對目前的有機成長動能感到非常滿意。但就目前而言，我們在全球酒店業中所佔的份額仍然不算特別大。所以我認為還有很多發展機會。

Your next question is from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Two questions for you on the deletions -- room deletions commentary. Relative to a quarter ago, what is the amount of forgone fees relative to that incremental deletion amount? And if you could break that out between the workout category and, say, the other category. I would imagine the incremental fees or lost fees, forgone fees is relatively low, but that could be [prospective put in].

關於房間刪除，我有兩個問題想請教您——關於房間刪除的評論。與上個季度相比，放棄的費用金額相對於新增刪除金額是多少？如果你能把這些內容從運動類別和其他類別中區分開來就好了。我估計新增費用或損失費用、放棄的費用相對較低，但這可能是[預期投入]。

Leeny, we have something specific on this, but let me just say, on the short term, a hotel leaving the system, we may lose management or franchise fees, we may gain in the short term termination fees. And so when you look at it, for example, in 2018, I'm not sure there's much impact. You look at it longer term, obviously, there is impact because those fees have left the system. I don't know, Leeny, if you've got the numbers.

Leeny，我們對此有一些具體情況，但我想說的是，短期來看，一家酒店退出系統，我們可能會損失管理費或特許經營費，但短期內我們可能會獲得終止費。所以，例如，當你回顧 2018 年的情況時，我不確定它是否產生了多大影響。從長遠來看，顯然會產生影響，因為這些費用已經退出了系統。莉妮，我不知道你有沒有這些數據。

So a couple of numbers for you, Joe, and we certainly -- kind of diving down into how much is from workouts versus product, we don't have that level of detail. And as you know, there are a whole host of different reasons. But let's just kind of talk broadly. Termination fees have generally run, call it, $15 million to $20 million a year. I think this year, we are likely to be as much as double that, maybe even a little bit more, based on the numbers that you heard us talk about today. So from that perspective, you're clearly getting the extra kick. In the back half of the year, we did reduce our fees by close to $5 million as a result of the terminations that we expect to have this year. So that is impacting this year's earnings. When you then think about full year '19, just to give you a broad sense of what the full year terminations could impact. If you're talking about, again, call it, very roughly 2%, then you can imagine that it could impact hotel fees next year by a bit less than that because some of these hotels aren't necessarily giving a lot of fees. So somewhere between 1% to 2% of hotel fees that will be lost as a result of 2% terminations this year.

喬，我給你幾個數字，我們當然——要深入分析有多少來自鍛煉，有多少來自產品，我們沒有那麼詳細的資訊。如你所知，原因有很多種。但我們還是先泛泛而談吧。終止費用通常每年約為 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。我認為，根據我們今天談到的數字，今年我們可能會達到今年的兩倍，甚至可能更多。所以從這個角度來看，你顯然會得到額外的好處。今年下半年，由於預計今年將出現合約終止的情況，我們的費用減少了近 500 萬美元。因此，這影響了今年的收益。那麼，當你考慮到 2019 年全年的情況時，就讓你大致了解一下全年終止合約可能會產生哪些影響。如果你說的是，比如說，大約 2%，那麼你可以想像，它對明年酒店費用的影響可能會略小於這個數字，因為有些酒店不一定收取很多費用。因此，由於今年 2% 的酒店終止合同，酒店將損失 1% 到 2% 的費用。

Understood. And then on the group pace for this year, is there a huge difference or meaningful difference between Starwood legacy properties and Marriott legacy properties?

明白了。那麼，就今年的集團營運速度而言，喜達屋傳統飯店和萬豪傳統飯店之間是否存在巨大差異或實質差異？

No. The numbers are very close.

不。這些數字非常接近。

Your next question is from Thomas Allen with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

Two questions for me. First on G&A. You highlighted the Starwood synergies a couple of times. How is that tracking versus your $250 million guidance?

我有兩個問題。首先是行政管理費用。您曾多次強調喜達屋的綜效。這個數字與您之前預測的2.5億美元相比如何？

Sure. So if you kind of take the 2015 full year combined company adjusted for inflation and then using our current expectation for the full year of 2018 and adjust out for the $55 million, it's pretty much close to on the button in terms of hitting the $250 million.

當然。所以，如果你把 2015 年全年合併後的公司業績按通貨膨脹率調整，然後使用我們目前對 2018 年全年的預期，並扣除 5500 萬美元，那麼就非常接近 2.5 億美元的目標了。

And I guess, a follow-up to that is, do we think there could be incremental G&A synergies? And then my second question, just to throw it in now, you touched on how you've outperformed your asset sale goal. You still own some Legacy-Starwood Hotels. How should we think about the plans with what's left?

那麼，接下來我想問的是，我們是否認為可以實現一般及行政費用的綜效？那麼，我的第二個問題，就順便提一下，您剛才提到您是如何超額完成資產出售目標的。您仍有一些隸屬於喜達屋集團的傳統飯店。我們應該如何利用剩下的資源來考慮計劃？

Sure. All right, let me do the second one first, and then I'll talk about the synergies. Today, we own 14 hotels. They're split half-and-half between Legacy-MI and Legacy-Starwood. We are, as you know, still completely devoted to our asset-light model and continue to be engaged in selling those hotels. They are, as you might imagine, not predictable in terms of the timing of those. So that's why, as usual, we leave those out of any guidance going forward, but we certainly are still going at it. On the G&A synergy side, I think the low-hanging fruit has definitely been taken. When we look forward, if you look at a global economy continuing to stay strong, you clearly -- around the world, you've got some wage pressure that you have to take into consideration when you look at kind of how it might go in 2019. Certainly, as I talked about on the last quarter's call, when you take out the $55 million -- when you include the $55 million this year, you can imagine that next year's G&A is lower than this year's printed number. But you also -- kind of finding other big chunks of synergies, I think, is probably not realistic, but I think continuing to be more and more efficient is. So we will continue to go after that.

當然。好的，我先講第二個問題，然後再談綜效。目前，我們擁有14家飯店。它們一半屬於 Legacy-MI，一半屬於 Legacy-Starwood。如您所知，我們仍然完全致力於輕資產模式，並繼續出售這些酒店。正如你所想，這些事件發生的時間是無法預測的。所以，像往常一樣，我們不會在未來的任何指導方針中提及這些內容，但我們當然還會繼續努力。在一般及行政費用綜效方面，我認為最容易達成的成果肯定已經實現了。展望未來，如果全球經濟持續保持強勁，那麼很明顯，在世界各地，薪資壓力是必須考慮的因素，尤其是在展望 2019 年的發展趨勢時。當然，正如我在上個季度電話會議上談到的那樣，如果扣除 5500 萬美元——如果把今年的 5500 萬美元算進去，你可以想像明年的 G&A 費用會低於今年的賬面數字。但你也——我覺得找到其他大的協同效應可能不太現實，但我認為不斷提高效率是可以實現的。所以我們會繼續朝著這個目標努力。

Your next question is from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

I think a lot of everything has been covered here, so just one high-level one, but I do think it's something that's come up some. So there's been a lot of press reports recently going into the August 18 kind of combination on the loyalty program side. So Arne, could you just talk at maybe at high level of kind of what you're doing to, I think, keep the highest-level SPG members kind of pleased and happy through this whole process? I mean, I know that it's a very difficult balancing act, but I would say that from the consumer side -- and obviously, you have to think about multiple constituents here, but from the consumer side, that was a kind of a core asset of Starwood when you acquired them. So just kind of what are you doing to keep that kind of customer happy throughout the program and throughout the transition?

我覺得這裡已經涵蓋了很多方面，所以只提一個比較宏觀的問題，但我確實認為這是一個被提及過的問題。最近有許多媒體報導都提到了 8 月 18 日忠誠度計畫的合併事宜。所以阿恩，你能否從宏觀層面談談你正在採取哪些措施，才能讓最高級別的SPG成員在整個過程中感到滿意和快樂？我的意思是，我知道這是一個非常困難的平衡之舉，但我想說，從消費者的角度來看——當然，你必須考慮多個利益相關者，但從消費者的角度來看，這在你收購喜達屋時是其核心資產之一。那麼，在整個專案和過渡期間，你們採取了哪些措施來讓這類客戶保持滿意呢？

Yes. So it's a good question. It's obviously something we've been focused on, not just since we closed the deal but since we announced the deal. And we -- the moment we announced in the fall of '15, we heard loud and clear from the SPG loyalists, "We love this program and make sure you protect it for us." And it has been a steady set of decisions and conversations since then, which have been aimed very much at doing that. We -- even before we closed on Starwood, we did a couple of things to the Marriott Rewards program to send the message to the SPG loyalists that we were going to protect some of their benefits. And they included things like late checkout, which had not existed on the Marriott Rewards side before, but we said rather than simply say it to the SPG folks that we're going to do it, they would believe it more if we actually did it on the Marriott Rewards side. And there were other similar decisions that we made in that sort of time frame. I think when we got to the day of closing, we also did a number of things. I think one of the most important was the 3:1 points conversion ratio between SPG and Marriott Rewards, which I think SPG members looked at and said, "You know, that's a very fair conversion and it does well for us, and so we appreciate that." And then I think in the last, what, 9 months or so probably most intensively, we have focused on the economics of the program, which very much depend also on the economics of the credit cards. And with better credit card deals, we have found that we can deliver great value to the elite members and the basic members of both loyalty programs. We can deliver it at reduced expense to the hotels, therefore benefiting the hotel owners and franchisees. And Marriott, obviously, can experience an increase in the credit card contribution to its own P&L. And while it would be too much to say that every single Marriott Rewards or SPG member has stood up and applauded, I think what we've heard from the bulk of that community is you've made a collection of decisions that caused us to feel very good about that program. And that's what we've intended, and I think we'll prove it in the way that ultimately it is used by our well over 100 million members and growing.

是的。所以，這確實是個好問題。顯然，這是我們一直以來關注的重點，不僅在我們完成交易之後，而且在我們宣布交易之後也是如此。2015年秋天我們宣布這一消息的那一刻，我們就清楚地聽到了SPG忠實擁躉們的強烈呼聲：「我們熱愛這個項目，請務必保護好它。」 從那以後，我們一直在做出一系列決定，並進行多次對話，其目的都正是為了實現這一目標。甚至在我們完成對喜達屋的收購之前，我們就對萬豪禮賞計劃進行了一些調整，以向SPG的忠實會員傳達一個訊息：我們將保護他們的一些福利。其中包括延遲退房等服務，這項服務以前在萬豪禮賞計劃中並不存在。但我們說，與其只是告訴SPG的人我們會這樣做，不如讓我們在萬豪禮賞計劃中實際做到這一點，這樣他們會更相信。在那個時間段內，我們還做出了其他類似的決定。我認為到了交屋那天，我們也做了很多事。我認為最重要的因素之一是SPG和萬豪禮賞之間3:1的點數轉換比例。 SPG會員們看到這個比例後表示：「這非常公平，對我們來說也很有利，所以我們很感激。」 然後，我認為在過去的九個月左右的時間裡，我們重點關注了該計劃的經濟效益，而這在很大程度上也取決於信用卡的經濟效益。我們發現，透過更優惠的信用卡交易，我們可以為兩個會員計劃的精英會員和普通會員提供極大的價值。我們可以以較低的成本將產品交付給酒店，從而使酒店業主和加盟商受益。顯然，萬豪酒店可以享受到信用卡對其損益表貢獻增加的收益。雖然說每一位萬豪禮賞或SPG會員都起立鼓掌有些誇張，但我認為我們從該群體的絕大多數成員那裡聽到的是，你們做出的一系列決定讓我們對該計劃感到非常滿意。而這正是我們所希望的，我相信我們最終會透過我們超過 1 億且還在不斷增長的會員的使用方式來證明這一點。

And maybe just to stay on the same -- the kind of the same idea, like at the very highest kind of levels, the Ambassador program for Starwood, take that, for instance, is the value of that guest as, like when you guys think about it from your side, as high as maybe some of these kind of the super frequent people? Like is there some -- I guess, is it -- it's hard to articulate, but is there some exceptional value to that guest? Or is everything sort of long and extreme because they also cost more to service and other things? So how are you kind of balancing just that ultimate kind of elite member? Because I think when we read some of the reviews and the blogs and some of the things like this and some of the articles that have been written, that's where probably the most discussion about the program comes up.

或許可以繼續沿用同樣的理念，例如在最高層級上，以喜達屋的「大使計畫」為例，從你們的角度來看，這位賓客的價值是否與一些超級常客的價值一樣高？例如，對這位客人來說，是否有一些——我想，是嗎——很難說清楚，但是否有一些特殊的價值？或者說，一切都比較冗長和極端，是因為它們的維護和其他成本也更高？那麼，你是如何平衡這種頂級菁英會員的需求和需求的呢？因為我覺得，當我們閱讀一些評論、部落格以及類似的文章時，關於這個項目的討論可能就主要集中在這些內容上。

Yes. No, we love those elite folks, and the Ambassador program we've expanded into the Marriott side of the equation too because we think it is exactly the right kind of step for these most valuable customers. And so we're doing that. And again, take -- you take this a day at a time in some ways, and we won't really have proven it until we get to one program and have it working. But I think the decisions that have been made are exactly the right ones. And I think the community as a whole is responding extraordinarily well to it.

是的。不，我們非常喜歡這些精英人士，而且我們也將大使計畫擴展到了萬豪酒店集團旗下，因為我們認為這對這些最有價值的客戶來說，正是正確的一步。所以我們正在這樣做。再說一遍，在某種程度上，我們要一步一步來，只有當我們有一個專案成功運行後，才能真正證明這一點。但我認為已經做出的決定完全正確。我認為整個社區對此的反應都非常積極。

Your next question is from Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So I want to ask you, you called out the $67 million impact for the asset sales in 2018, but can you give us what the number would look like for 2019, just based on the sales you've done so far this year? And I'm assuming that's a net number that includes the Sheraton and Phoenix purchases, is that right?

所以我想問一下，您提到了 2018 年資產出售帶來的 6700 萬美元的影響，但您能否根據今年迄今為止的銷售情況，估算一下 2019 年的數字？我假設這個數字是包含喜來登和鳳凰酒店的收購在內的淨額，對嗎？

So first of all, I'll say we haven't done our budgets yet for 2019, so it would be interesting to give you an expectation for the actual -- the lost revenue overall for owned, leased. But on the hotels that we're selling this year, we'll -- we can get you that number. I don't have the total here. We'll work on it and get it to you.

首先，我要說的是，我們還沒有製定 2019 年的預算，所以很想給大家一個關於實際損失收入（包括自有和租賃收入）的預期。但是對於我們今年出售的酒店，我們可以給你這個數字。我這裡沒有總數。我們會盡快處理並寄給您。

Okay. And that is a net number? It does include the Sheraton and Phoenix?

好的。這是淨值嗎？其中包括喜來登酒店和鳳凰酒店嗎？

Yes, no.

是的，也不是。

Okay. And then I just want to ask, switching gears on China. I think your Asia-Pacific RevPAR guidance is still pretty strong. But maybe you can just comment on if you're seeing anything in China. I know you're talking about steady as she goes throughout the entire business. But maybe if you could just comment on what you're seeing, especially in light of all the trade talk right now.

好的。然後，我想換個話題，談談中國。我認為你們對亞太地區每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的預測依然相當強勁。不過，如果你在中國看到了什麼，或許可以評論一下。我知道你指的是她在整個業務過程中始終保持穩定。但或許您可以就您所看到的情況發表一些評論，尤其是在目前貿易談判甚囂塵上的背景下。

Yes, obviously, we're all listening to the trade talk, I think, and it is anxiety producing in many respects. I think what we've seen in terms of trading conditions for open hotels in China has been very comforting, performing well. There's no sign that the trade conversation is impacting performance. And what we've seen on the development side has equally been reassuring in that -- and part undoubtedly, because of strong hotel performance, for existing and open hotels, there continues to be a development appetite for Chinese real estate investors. Remember, our business is substantially Chinese in that -- of the hotels we have opened in China, I can think of one that's not owned by a Chinese company. And so the book of the economics are very much driven for the benefit of Chinese investors, real estate investors. They are often government-affiliated companies, but not always. And as a consequence, we may be in a somewhat different place in a trade kind of conversation than the typical industry. I think the -- personally, my larger fear about the trade war potential is what it could do to GDP growth in the United States, and to some extent, what it could do to the cost for construction materials in the United States and in other markets around the world. And that certainly has not seemed to manifest itself yet in U.S. GDP numbers. It probably is starting to manifest itself in terms of some materials that are used for construction. But it's early on in that process, and we'll have to see how it evolves.

是的，很顯然，我們都在關注貿易談判，我認為，這在很多方面都令人焦慮。我認為，就中國目前開放的酒店的交易狀況而言，我們看到的情況非常令人欣慰，表現良好。目前沒有任何跡象顯示貿易談判對業績產生影響。而我們在開發方面看到的情況同樣令人欣慰——毫無疑問，部分原因是酒店業的強勁表現，對於現有和已開業的酒店而言，中國房地產投資者仍然保持著開發熱情。請記住，我們的業務在很大程度上是中國式的——在我們在中國開設的酒店中，我能想到的只有一家不是中國公司擁有的。因此，這本經濟學著作很大程度上是為了中國投資者，特別是房地產投資者的利益而製定的。它們通常是政府關聯公司，但並非總是如此。因此，我們在貿易方面的對話可能與典型的行業對話有所不同。我個人認為，貿易戰的潛在影響最大的，是它可能對美國GDP成長造成的影響，以及在某種程度上，它可能對美國和世界其他市場的建築材料成本造成的影響。而這一點目前似乎尚未在美國GDP數據中反映出來。這可能已經開始在一些建築材料中顯現出來。但現在還處於早期階段，我們還要看看它會如何發展。

Your next question is from Rich Hightower with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Rich Hightower。

So I want to hit back on the Starwood sales force integration issues from the last quarter. We've heard from at least a handful of owners, so not really just 1 or 2, but at least a handful, and we have yet to hear from your largest owner, of course. So that's (inaudible).

所以我想就上個季度喜達屋銷售團隊整合問題進行反駁。我們已經聯繫了至少幾位業主，所以實際上不只一兩位，而是至少幾位，當然，我們還沒有聯繫到你們最大的業主。所以，那是（聽不清楚）。

Yes. That's tomorrow presumably, right? Yes.

是的。大概是明天吧？是的。

Exactly. So at the same time, I mean, everybody has got their own version of sort of what may have led to weakness of the individual hotels during the second quarter or whichever period we're talking about. I guess, if you had to fairly articulate the view of those owners with respect to this issue, what do you think a fair representation really is just so we kind of get to the -- get clarity on this point?

確切地。所以同時，我的意思是，每個人都有自己對導致個別飯店在第二季或我們所談論的任何時期表現疲軟的原因的看法。我想，如果你要公正地表達這些業主對這個問題的看法，你認為公正的表達究竟是什麼？這樣我們才能弄清楚這一點。

Well, I mean, you've heard from them directly, obviously. And I'd be -- be inappropriate for me to speak for all of them because I think their views are not monolithic. Interested to note that one of the companies we heard talk about this in their public call had never raised the performance of the hotel that they raised in the call with us. But -- so as a consequence, our team hadn't really had a chance to engage in a dialogue with them. I think generally, though, and even what we've seen in the conversations over the last week or 2, generally, you see even in those comments that the impact is viewed as transitory. They remain supportive of the transaction. They remain supportive of the notion that this transaction is going to deliver a significant value to them from top line and bottom line synergies. And even I think more of this concern has been raised with respect to Legacy-Starwood Hotels and I think a number of those folks have said, "We still believe that the Legacy-Starwood Hotels may benefit disproportionately from Marriott and Starwood coming together." And so we don't hear this as -- obviously, we hear something. We hear the words that are being used, and we don't want to say that there can't be instances in which there is some impact or there shouldn't be conversations to make sure we understand this as well as we possibly can understand it. But when you look at the system as a whole, we do not see it showing up in our data. We don't see it in the RevPAR index numbers, we don't see it in the RevPAR year-over-year growth numbers. We don't see it in what the customers are telling us about the way they're booking. And we'll do everything within our power to make sure that, that continues to be the case. And then in the meantime, we'll deal with the owners who called out concerns with respect to particular hotels and say, "Let's make sure we understand them and make whatever decision needs to be made in order to have those hotels perform as well as they can perform."

嗯，我的意思是，你顯然已經直接收到他們的消息了。而且，我不適合代表他們所有人發言，因為我認為他們的觀點並不統一。值得注意的是，我們在公開電話會議中聽到的一家公司，從未像在與我們通話時那樣，提高過酒店的業績。但是——因此，我們的團隊並沒有真正有機會與他們進行對話。不過，我認為整體而言，甚至從過去一兩週的對話中也可以看出，人們普遍認為這種影響是暫時的。他們仍然支持這筆交易。他們仍然支持這樣的觀點：這項交易將透過營收和利潤的協同效應為他們帶來巨大的價值。而且我認為，對於合併後的喜達屋酒店集團（Legacy-Starwood Hotels），這種擔憂更為普遍。我認為，許多人都表示：「我們仍然認為，萬豪和喜達屋合併後，喜達屋酒店集團可能會獲得不成比例的利益。」 所以，我們聽到的並非僅僅是這些——顯然，我們聽到了一些聲音。我們聽到了這些詞語，我們並不想說這些詞語不會產生任何影響，也不想說不應該進行對話，以確保我們盡可能地理解這些詞語。但從整個系統來看，我們並沒有在數據中看到它的體現。我們從RevPAR指數中看不到這一點，也從RevPAR年增率中看不到這一點。從顧客回饋的預約方式來看，我們並沒有發現這個問題。我們將竭盡全力確保這種情況持續下去。同時，我們將與那些對特定酒店提出擔憂的業主進行溝通，並表示：“讓我們確保了解他們的想法，並做出必要的決定，以使這些酒店能夠盡可能地發揮其應有的水平。”

Your next question is from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。

I just have one quick one. As it pertains to the deletions that you talked about, if you go back to your March of 2017 Analyst Day and kind of frame maybe the change in the magnitude of the deletions from what your expectations were at that point relative to kind of what you're currently seeing, is that possible?

我還有一個問題要問。關於您提到的刪除操作，如果您回顧一下 2017 年 3 月的分析師日，並考慮一下您當時的預期與目前的情況相比，刪除操作的規模是否有所變化，這有可能嗎？

Yes, I'm not sure it is. I think we can say that we've been talking about 1% to 1.5% deletions for a while. I think actually last year, we were closer to 1% than 1.5%. And so in a sense, we were positively surprised and maybe this is a little bit of a reversion to the mean in 2018. But I'm not sure we can say much more than what we've already said. I think 1% to 1.5% for now and, again, we will get to a point where we share a multiyear plan with you all again at some point here, but until we get to next year's budget or until we get to a analyst conference, I think 1% to 1.5% still should be your expectation for the foreseeable future.

是的，我不確定是不是。我認為我們可以說，我們一直在討論 1% 到 1.5% 的資料刪除問題。我認為去年我們的實際比例更接近 1% 而不是 1.5%。因此，從某種意義上說，我們感到驚喜，這或許是 2018 年的一種回歸均值的表現。但我不太確定我們還能說些什麼。我認為目前來看，成長率應該在 1% 到 1.5% 之間。當然，我們會在某個時候再次和大家分享多年計劃，但在明年的預算出台或召開分析師會議之前，我認為在可預見的未來，大家的預期增長率仍然應該是 1% 到 1.5%。

Great. And if I could just ask one quick follow-up. On the group pace for all future periods, you stated plus 17%. Was that -- that's the comparable number, is that right, the 17%?

偉大的。我可否再問一個後續問題？對於未來所有時期的團隊速度，您表示增加 17%。那是——那是可比較數字，對嗎，17%？

No, no, no, that is group bookings year-to-date for all future periods. Bookings done in '18 for the first 6 months. That's not pace for all bookings from all time for future periods.

不，不，不，那是今年迄今為止所有未來時期的團體預訂量。2018 年前 6 個月的預訂情況。這並非指所有期間所有預訂的未來時段的預訂速度。

Your next question is from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

你的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的文斯·西皮爾。

I wanted to touch on something. I don't know if it's come up today, but the Tribute portfolio for booking homes in London, I think as of the last call, you were only a few weeks in. Just curious now that have -- you have a few more months, what are your early learnings there? And then would it surprise you to have other cities outside of London on that platform maybe by this time next year?

我想談談我的看法。我不知道今天有沒有提到，但 Tribute 的倫敦房屋預訂平台，我記得上次打電話的時候，才上線幾週而已。我很好奇，既然你還有幾個月的時間，你最初的學習心得是什麼？那麼，到明年這個時候，倫敦以外的其他城市加入這個平台中，你會感到驚訝嗎？

Yes. So thanks for raising it. Just as a reminder for everybody, we launched about 90 to 120 days ago maybe a pilot in London under the name Tribute Homes. It is a relatively small pilot in the sense that there are about 200 homes that are connected to our system. And they are bigger than studio apartments. They're bigger than hotel rooms. They're whole home products. So that they're -- it's a product which feels different to us from both what we have in the traditional hotel space and what the typical product is that a number of the home-sharing companies are focused on. And we wanted to provide loyalty linkage, and we wanted to provide a set of services that would make it more predictable and more consistent with sort of the brand promise, if you will. So not just key delivery services, but housekeeping services and design and decor services, which are delivered by our partner in London. And it, we think, it allows us to distinguish a little bit both in terms of size and in quality from sort of the average home-sharing theme. Small pilot though. The first -- this -- so far, it's gone great. Our loyalty customers seem to like it, not surprisingly. It is predominantly a leisure buy. Not surprisingly because it's a leisure buy -- it's only London, obviously, it is a bit longer stay than we anticipated. So the stay we're experiencing is closer to 5 nights on average, which is a little bit longer than we anticipated. And the customer feedback has generally been quite good. So we don't have anything to announce yet in terms of other markets, but it's certainly something we'll take a look at.

是的。所以，謝謝你提出這個問題。提醒大家一下，我們大約在 90 到 120 天前在倫敦啟動了一個名為 Tribute Homes 的試點計畫。從某種意義上說，這是一個規模相對較小的試點項目，因為我們的系統只連接了大約 200 戶家庭。而且它們比單身公寓還要大。它們比飯店房間還大。它們是全屋產品。因此，對我們來說，他們的產品與傳統飯店領域的產品以及許多房屋共享公司專注於的典型產品截然不同。我們希望提供忠誠度聯繫，並希望提供一系列服務，使其更可預測，更符合品牌承諾。因此，不僅包括鑰匙配送服務，還包括家事服務、設計和裝飾服務，這些服務均由我們在倫敦的合作夥伴提供。我們認為，這使我們能夠在規模和品質方面與一般的房屋共享主題略有不同。雖然是小型飛行員。第一個——就是這個——到目前為止，進展非常順利。不出所料，我們的忠實客戶似乎很喜歡它。它主要是一種休閒消費品。這並不奇怪，因為這是一次休閒旅行——畢竟是在倫敦，所以停留時間比我們預期的要長一些。因此，我們平均入住時間接近 5 晚，比我們預期的要長一些。顧客回饋整體來說都相當不錯。所以，就其他市場而言，我們目前還沒有任何消息可以宣布，但這絕對是我們會關注的事情。

Great. And then second, what percentage of the bookings are currently made through marriott.com, spg.com and the apps combined when you roll it all up? And as you move to one platform, are you expecting that, that percent, which I think is growing each year, to accelerate in growth?

偉大的。其次，目前透過 marriott.com、spg.com 和應用程式完成的預訂總量佔總預訂量的百分比是多少？隨著平台遷移，您是否預期這個百分比（我認為它每年都在增長）會加速成長？

When you look at -- if you add property to it...

當你觀察它時——如果你給它添加屬性…

It's 3/4.

是四分之三。

It's about 3/4 of our business is coming through our channels. Maybe 70% would be our channels. So that would be calling the hotel, calling our call centers and our digital platforms, whether they'd be the dotcom sites or the apps. I think what we've seen over the last number of years is that the digital channels have grown substantially. The voice channels, including our own voice channels, have declined. We're likely to see those trends continue, and we do think for the reasons we discussed earlier about share of wallet, having all the hotels show up on one platform, that we should be able to drive enhanced growth in the digital platforms because everything will be there. We don't have a forecast for you on where those numbers are going, though.

我們大約四分之三的業務都是透過我們的管道獲得的。或許70%會是我們的通路。所以，這包括打電話給飯店、打電話給我們的呼叫中心以及給我們的數位平台打電話，無論是網站還是應用程式。我認為，過去幾年我們看到的是，數位管道已經大幅成長。包括我們自己的語音頻道在內的語音頻道數量有所下降。我們可能會看到這些趨勢繼續下去，我們認為，由於我們之前討論過的錢包份額問題，所有酒店都出現在一個平台上，我們應該能夠推動數位平台的進一步增長，因為一切都將在那裡。不過，我們目前無法預測這些數字的走向。

And your final question is from Stuart Gordon with Berenberg.

最後一個問題來自貝倫貝格銀行的史都華‧戈登。

Net unit growth, obviously, there's 2 sides of the equation. And everybody's been focused on the deletions. But I was wondering on the growth side, you've materially increased both the number and proportion of rooms and construction. So is there an opportunity for you to do better than the 285,000 to 300,000 gross addition number you gave at the Capital Markets Day?

淨單位增長，顯然，等式有兩方面。大家的注意力都集中在刪除操作上。但我想問的是，在成長方面，你們已經大幅增加了房間的數量和比例，並且進行了建造。那麼，您是否有機會做得比您在資本市場日上給出的新增毛收入 285,000 至 300,000 這個數字更好呢？

Well, there's a few questions in there. I would say, first, that we've been positively surprised by how strong the development pipeline is. I think when we've -- this is a conversation we've been having for a few years, but we would have thought that U.S. signings and approvals probably would not be as strong as they are today. We thought that 2016 was sort of the peak organic growth and it probably still is the peak organic growth. I don't think necessarily, we're going to see the numbers move up from there. But our partners in the United States continue to want to do more deals with us, and that's been really quite good. The world, obviously, is a big place. Some markets continue to perform quite robustly. Some are essentially moribund in the development space either for economic reasons or for geopolitical reasons. I think if you look at all those averages and compare to what we shared at the analyst conference, we would say that deletions might be just a little bit higher than we had before, but we'd have to go back and look at those 3 years. And openings have shifted back by a quarter or 2 and that's because of length of the construction cycle. And I think that latter factor is more likely to cause us to miss that 285,000- to 300,000-room number we used 1.5 years ago? When was that conference?

嗯，裡面有幾個問題。首先，我想說的是，我們對目前研發實力的強大感到非常驚喜。我認為，當我們——這是我們幾年來一直在討論的話題——我們原本以為美國的簽約和批准可能不會像今天這樣強勁。我們認為 2016 年是有機成長的頂峰，現在可能仍然是有機成長的頂峰。我不認為這些數字一定會繼續上升。但是我們在美國的合作夥伴仍然希望與我們達成更多交易，這真的很好。世界之大，顯而易見。部分市場表現依然強勁。有些國家由於經濟原因或地緣政治原因，在發展領域基本上處​​於停滯狀態。我認為，如果你看一下所有這些平均值，並與我們在分析師會議上分享的數據進行比較，我們會說刪除量可能比以前略高一些，但我們必須回顧過去 3 年的數據。由於施工週期較長，開業時間延後了四分之一到二分之一。我認為後一個因素更有可能導致我們懷念1.5年前設定的28.5萬至30萬間客房的目標數量？那次會議是什麼時候召開的？

It was March of '17.

那是2017年3月。

March of '17. More likely to miss it than we are to exceed it.

2017年3月。我們更有可能錯過它而不是超越它。

Okay. And just a follow-up. You've given some color before on the number of credit card customers you've got. Could you give us an update on how that has improved with the better terms and also the cross-selling opportunities that you have as a larger group?

好的。還有一個後續問題。您之前已經透露過您的信用卡客戶數量。能否請您介紹一下，在條款改善以及貴公司作為一家大型集團所擁有的交叉銷售機會之後，情況是如何改善的？

Well, it is -- it's still new in the process. JPMorgan Chase has rolled out the new Visa card and the customer response has been great. They're in market. Amex will not roll out its new product until later this month, I think roughly the end of August. I don't remember precisely the date. And so we don't have the customer reaction there yet. But I -- all things considered, we feel quite good about the strength of the program and the likelihood that it's going to grow in the future.

嗯，確實如此──這個過程還很新。摩根大通推出了新的Visa卡，客戶反應非常好。它們正在市場上。美國運通的新產品要到本月稍後才會推出，我估計大概是八月底。我記不清具體日期了。所以，我們目前還沒有收到客戶的回饋。但是，總的來說，我們對該項目的實力以及它未來發展的可能性感到非常樂觀。

All right. Well, thank you very much. Thank you, everybody, for your time and attention on the call. We appreciate your interest in Marriott and look forward to welcoming you into our hotels wherever your travel takes you.

好的。非常感謝。感謝各位抽空參加本次電話會議。我們感謝您對萬豪酒店的關注，期待無論您的旅程將您帶到哪裡，都能在我們的酒店迎接您的到來。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。