萬豪國際 (MAR) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Marriott International's Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Arne Sorenson, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2018年第四季財報電話會議。（操作說明）現在，我很高興將發言權交給執行長 Arne Sorenson。請繼續，先生。

Good morning. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

早安.歡迎參加我們2018年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；投資者關係資深副總裁 Laura Paugh；以及投資者關係高級總監 Betsy Dahm。

Let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued yesterday, along with our comments today, are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

我想提醒大家，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們昨天發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們今天的評論僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

In our discussion, we will talk about 2018 results compared to 2017 results, adjusted for merger-related costs and charges, cost reimbursement revenue and reimbursed expenses. In addition, the 2017 fourth quarter excludes the Avendra gain and the provisional tax charge resulting from recent tax reform, while the fourth quarter of 2018 excludes adjustments to the provisional tax charge resulting from recent tax reform. Of course, comparisons to our prior year reported GAAP results are in the press release, which you can find along with the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures on our website.

在我們的討論中，我們將討論 2018 年的業績與 2017 年的業績進行比較，並根據合併相關成本和費用、成本補償收入和已補償支出進行調整。此外，2017 年第四季不包括 Avendra 的收益和近期稅制改革產生的暫定稅款，而 2018 年第四季不包括近期稅制改革產生的暫定稅款調整。當然，與我們上一年公佈的 GAAP 業績的比較結果已在新聞稿中列出，您可以在我們的網站上找到該新聞稿以及非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

We've accomplished a lot since the acquisition of Starwood in late 2016. We recently unified all 3 loyalty programs into our newly branded program, Marriott Bonvoy. Our operations and disciplined teams are fully in place. We've created significant value through combining sales organizations, improving cost efficiencies and negotiating new co-branded credit card agreements. And we've realized more than $250 million of corporate G&A savings. Today, we truly feel like one company. These integration efforts required extraordinary planning and execution by our team, and I couldn't be prouder of their work.

自 2016 年底收購喜達屋以來，我們已經取得了許多成就。我們最近將所有 3 個會員忠誠計劃合併為我們新推出的品牌計劃——萬豪旅享家 (Marriott Bonvoy)。我們的營運和訓練有素的團隊已全面到位。我們透過整合銷售組織、提高成本效益和談判新的聯名信用卡協議，創造了巨大的價值。我們已實現了超過 2.5 億美元的企業一般及行政費用節省。今天，我們真正感覺像是一家公司。這些整合工作需要我們團隊進行非凡的規劃和執行，我對他們的工作感到無比自豪。

In a transformation this large and all-encompassing, it would be surprising not to encounter some challenges. In late November, we disclosed a data security incident involving the Legacy-Starwood reservation database. Beginning with our public announcement regarding the incident on November 30, we rolled out a broad guest outreach effort. As we address customer issues, the number of calls through our dedicated call centers declined from over 40,000 in December to fewer than 6,000 calls in January and less than 3,000 calls in February.

如此大規模、影響深遠的變革，如果沒有遇到一些挑戰，那才令人驚訝。11 月下旬，我們揭露了一起涉及 Legacy-Starwood 預訂資料庫的資料安全事件。從 11 月 30 日我們公開宣布此事件開始，我們進行了廣泛的客戶宣傳活動。隨著我們處理客戶問題，我們專用呼叫中心的來電量從 12 月份的 4 萬多通電話下降到 1 月份的不足 6000 通電話，2 月份的不足 3000 通電話。

It was encouraging to hear on their earnings call in January, Stephen Squeri, CEO of American Express, note that his firm has seen no appreciable spike in credit card fraud resulting from this incident. Our forensic review of the incident is now complete, and as we said in January, the number of guest records involved is lower than we originally estimated.

令人鼓舞的是，在1月的財報電話會議上，美國運通執行長史蒂芬‧斯奎裡指出，該公司並未因這起事件而出現信用卡詐欺的明顯激增。我們對這起事件的調查已經完成，正如我們在 1 月所說，涉及的訪客記錄數量比我們最初估計的要少。

We are no longer using the Legacy-Starwood reservation system, and we have implemented additional security measures on the Marriott network. We do not believe there has been any material RevPAR impact from this incident. Our Board of Directors has been very engaged in this matter. All of us remain committed to learn from this experience, work to improve our information security systems and increase our ability to respond quickly to threats.

我們已不再使用 Legacy-Starwood 預訂系統，並且已在萬豪網路中實施了額外的安全措施。我們認為此事件並未對每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）造成實質影響。我們的董事會一直非常關注此事。我們所有人都將繼續致力於從這次經驗中學習，努力改進我們的資訊安全系統，並提高我們快速應對威脅的能力。

So let's talk about 2018. Membership in Marriott Bonvoy reached nearly 125 million members at year-end 2018, and it remains the largest and most valuable travel program in the hotel business. We have been adding, on average, 1.5 million members per month. Members are highly engaged. In 2018, reward redemptions increased 8% year-over-year and room nights sold to members increased 6%, both reaching record levels. Marriott Bonvoy members contributed roughly half of our room nights in 2018.

那我們就來聊聊2018年吧。截至 2018 年底，萬豪旅享家會員人數已接近 1.25 億，它仍然是酒店業規模最大、最有價值的旅行計劃。我們平均每月新增會員150萬。會員參與度很高。2018 年，獎勵兌換額年增 8%，售予會員的房間晚數年增 6%，均達到創紀錄水準。2018 年，萬豪旅享家會員貢獻了我們約一半的客房晚數。

Our hotels continued to deliver the great service our guests expect. We now offer keyless entry at over 1,400 hotels, and today, mobile check-in and checkout is available at nearly all hotels. Our new Enhanced Reservation System or ERS was rolled out to over 800 hotels as of year-end and should be available at over 2,000 hotels by year-end 2019. ERS allows guests to select rooms based on a variety of room characteristics such as bed type, view, high or low floor and so on, with more photographs and hotel descriptions.

我們的飯店持續提供客人所期望的優質服務。目前，我們在超過 1400 家飯店提供免鑰匙入住服務，如今，幾乎所有飯店都提供手機辦理入住和退房服務。截至年底，我們新的增強型預訂系統（ERS）已推廣至 800 多家酒店，到 2019 年底，預計將有 2000 多家酒店可以使用該系統。ERS 讓客人可以根據各種房間特徵（如床型、景觀、樓層高低等）選擇房間，並提供更多照片和飯店描述。

Worldwide 2018 full-service RevPAR rose 2.6%, and property-level house profit margins for our company-operated hotels increased 40 basis points despite labor costs rising roughly 4%. We captured cost savings at properties, realized procurement benefits and improved productivity. We reduced the amount of discounting at Legacy-Starwood hotels, and across our system, increased the proportion of bookings coming from our digital channels. In fact, in 2018, our direct digital room nights worldwide increased 11%, reaching 28% of all bookings while OTA share of bookings remained flat.

2018 年全球全服務型酒店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長了 2.6%，儘管勞動力成本上漲了約 4%，但我們公司自營酒店的物業層面房屋利潤率仍增長了 40 個基點。我們在物業方面實現了成本節約，獲得了採購優勢，並提高了生產力。我們減少了原喜達屋酒店的折扣力度，並在整個系統中提高了來自數位管道的預訂比例。事實上，2018 年，我們全球直接數位客房夜數增加了 11%，達到所有預訂量的 28%，而 OTA 預訂份額保持不變。

We believe the cost of our loyalty program is the lowest among our competitors in the hotel business while delivering the highest value to guests. While charge-out rate savings from our loyalty program differ by brand, on average, since the Starwood acquisition, the charge-out rate of our overall loyalty program has declined by roughly 50 to 60 basis points, benefiting from integration synergies as well as the new co-brand credit card agreements. Lower loyalty costs should also benefit hotel margins in 2019 since the charge-out rates declined most meaningfully late in 2018.

我們相信，我們的會員忠誠計畫成本在飯店業的競爭對手中是最低的，同時又能為客人提供最高的價值。雖然我們忠誠度計畫的收費率節省因品牌而異，但自喜達屋收購以來，我們整體忠誠度計畫的平均收費率下降了約 50 至 60 個基點，這得益於整合協同效應以及新的聯名信用卡協議。較低的忠誠度成本也應該有利於 2019 年飯店的利潤率，因為收費率在 2018 年底下降幅度最大。

Just over 100 hotels left the Marriott system in 2018, which strengthened our overall system quality. The deletion rate for Legacy-Marriott product totaled 1.3% of total rooms while the rate for Legacy-Starwood product totaled 2.5%. Despite this, we grew our overall rooms distribution by nearly 5% net. By the way, RevPAR index and fees per room of the deleted hotels were, on average, meaningfully lower than the rest of our comparably branded hotels. We expect overall deletions to return to the more normal level of 1% to 1.5% of rooms in 2019, resulting in net system growth of roughly 5.5%.

2018 年有 100 多家酒店離開了萬豪酒店集團，這提高了我們整體的系統品質。原萬豪產品的刪除率佔總房間數的 1.3%，而原喜達屋產品的刪除率佔總房間數的 2.5%。儘管如此，我們的整體客房分佈淨增加了近 5%。順便一提，被刪除飯店的每間可供出租客房收入指數和每間客房費用平均而言明顯低於我們其他同品牌飯店。我們預計 2019 年整體刪除數量將恢復到更正常的水平，即房間總數的 1% 到 1.5%，從而使系統淨增長約為 5.5%。

On the development front, we signed agreements for a record 125,000 rooms in 2018, equivalent to nearly 10% of our existing portfolio. Even more important, the net present value of the signed deals also reached record levels. Our pipeline increased for the 26th quarter in a row to reach a record 478,000 rooms, with 214,000 of those rooms already under construction.

在開發方面，我們在 2018 年簽署了創紀錄的 125,000 間客房的協議，相當於我們現有客房組合的近 10%。更重要的是，已簽署協議的淨現值也達到了創紀錄的水準。我們的在建項目連續第 26 個季度成長，達到創紀錄的 478,000 間客房，其中 214,000 間客房已在建設中。

At year-end, our market share of worldwide open rooms was 7%. Our market share of STR's worldwide under construction pipeline was a leading 20%. In North America, alone, our market share was open room -- of open rooms was 15%, while our market share of STRs under construction pipeline was 36%.

截至年底，我們在全球開放房間市場的份額為 7%。我們在 STR 全球在建專案管線中的市佔率領先 20%。僅在北美，我們的市場份額（空置房間）為 15%，而我們在建短期出租房項目中的市場份額為 36%。

We migrated Starwood Hotels to Marriott systems late in the year. In 5 waves from September to December, we shifted 11 brands encompassing roughly 1,500 managed and franchised Starwood Hotels on to Marriott's platforms, including systems for reservations, revenue management and sales and catering. This was a highly complex undertaking involving many people, processes and technology. While further fine-tuning and training is underway, this is a massive step to have behind us.

今年晚些時候，我們將喜達屋酒店系統遷移到了萬豪系統。從 9 月到 12 月，我們分 5 批將 11 個品牌（涵蓋約 1500 家由喜達屋酒店集團管理和特許經營的酒店）遷移到萬豪酒店的平台上，包括預訂、收益管理、銷售和餐飲系統。這是一項高度複雜的工程，涉及眾多人員、流程和技術。雖然目前仍在進行進一步的調整和培訓，但這無疑是我們邁出的重要一步。

So let's talk about fourth quarter. Marriott's worldwide system-wide comparable RevPAR increased 1.3% on a constant dollar basis and North America RevPAR rose 0.2%. North America system-wide RevPAR growth was impacted by a more robust industry demand environment and by labor strikes. Looking ahead, for the first quarter of 2019, we expect system-wide North America RevPAR will increase 1% to 2%, with the favorable timing of Easter group business is expected to be stronger in March.

那我們來談談第四季吧。萬豪酒店集團全球系統可比RevPAR以固定美元計算成長1.3%，北美RevPAR成長0.2%。北美地區整體RevPAR成長受到更強勁的產業需求環境和勞工罷工的影響。展望未來，我們預計 2019 年第一季北美地區整體 RevPAR 將成長 1% 至 2%，復活節假期期間的業務預計將在 3 月更加強勁。

Encouragingly, North America RevPAR increased 50 basis points in January despite the government shutdown and some lingering impact from the strikes, particularly in Hawaii. For full year 2019, we continue to expect North America system-wide RevPAR will increase 1% to 3%. We expect group business will increase at a low single-digit rate during the year. Special corporate rate negotiations are nearly complete, and rates for comparable customers are also increasing at a low single-digit rate. In 2018, our North America region accounted for 68% of our hotel-based fees.

令人鼓舞的是，儘管政府停擺和罷工的一些持續影響（尤其是在夏威夷），北美1月份的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)仍增長了50個基點。我們繼續預期 2019 年全年北美系統整體每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 1% 至 3%。我們預計集團業務年內將以較低的個位數速度成長。特殊企業價格談判已接近尾聲，類似客戶的費率也以較低的個位數成長率上漲。2018 年，北美地區占我們飯店相關費用的 68%。

In the Asia Pacific region, constant dollar system-wide RevPAR rose more than 5% in the fourth quarter, consistent with our expectations. RevPAR growth in India and the larger cities in China remained strong, while new supply constrained RevPAR growth on Hainan Island in China and moderating manufacturing demand slowed RevPAR growth in Southern China markets. Food and beverage sales in China were weak, reflecting more cautious corporate spending.

在亞太地區，第四季以固定美元計算的系統性每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長超過 5%，與我們的預期一致。印度和中國大城市的RevPAR成長依然強勁，而中國海南島的新供應限制了RevPAR的成長，製造業需求的放緩也減緩了華南市場的RevPAR成長。中國食品飲料銷售疲軟，反映企業支出更加謹慎。

On the other hand, outbound China leisure demand remained robust, resulting in strong demand in leisure markets across the Pacific Rim. For the first quarter and full year 2019, we expect RevPAR in the Asia Pacific region will increase at a mid-single-digit rate, with continued strength in India and most major markets in China. Hotels in Japan should benefit from higher attendance for the 35th anniversary of Tokyo Disneyland. In 2018, our Asia Pacific region accounted for 15% of our hotel-based fees.

另一方面，中國出境休閒旅遊需求依然強勁，帶動了環太平洋地區休閒旅遊市場的強勁需求。我們預計 2019 年第一季和全年亞太地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以中等個位數的速度增長，其中印度和中國大多數主要市場將繼續保持強勁增長勢頭。東京迪士尼樂園35週年慶典期間，日本旅館業可望受益於客流量的增加。2018 年，亞太地區占我們飯店相關費用的 15%。

In Europe, fourth quarter RevPAR rose more than 5%, with strong demand from U.S. travelers in London. Centre City Paris hotel demand moderated due to yellow vest political demonstrations and the resulting closed tourist attractions. Barcelona demand was strong, benefiting from easy comparisons to last year's Catalonian political issue. Looking ahead, assuming no business disruption from Brexit, we expect RevPAR in Europe will grow at a mid-single-digit rate, both in the first quarter and full year 2019. Last year, our Europe region represented 9% of our hotel-based fees.

在歐洲，第四季每間可供出租客房收入成長超過 5%，其中美國遊客對倫敦的需求強勁。受「黃背心」政治示威活動及由此導致的旅遊景點關閉的影響，巴黎市中心酒店需求有所下降。巴塞隆納的需求強勁，這得益於人們很容易將今年的巴塞隆納與去年的加泰隆尼亞政治議題進行比較。展望未來，假設英國脫歐不會對業務造成乾擾，我們預計 2019 年第一季和全年歐洲的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以中等個位數的速度成長。去年，我們歐洲地區的飯店相關費用占我們總費用的 9%。

RevPAR in the Caribbean and Latin America region increased nearly 7% in the fourth quarter compared to last year. Strong RevPAR growth at resort hotels in the Caribbean, particularly Aruba and Grand Cayman, was helped by the lack of new supply in the region and strong holiday demand. In South America, RevPAR was aided by the G20 meeting and currency devaluations in Argentina and Brazil. We expect first quarter and full year 2019 RevPAR in the region will increase at a low single-digit rate as Caribbean hotels continue to reopen after the 2017 hurricanes. Our CALA region accounted for 4% of our hotel-based fees in 2018.

與去年同期相比，加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在第四季度增長了近7%。加勒比海地區度假酒店的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）強勁增長，尤其是阿魯巴和大開曼島，這得益於該地區新供應不足和強勁的假期需求。在南美洲，G20 會議以及阿根廷和巴西的貨幣貶值促進了每間可供出租客房收入的成長。我們預計，隨著加勒比海酒店在 2017 年颶風後繼續重新開業，該地區 2019 年第一季和全年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以較低的個位數速度增長。2018 年，CALA 地區的飯店收入占我們總收入的 4%。

In the Middle East and Africa, fourth quarter RevPAR declined over 5%. RevPAR in Egypt increased sharply in the quarter on strong tourist demand. However, continued sanctions on Qatar and oversupply and the higher VAT in the UAE and Saudi Arabia continued to reduce RevPAR growth for the region, overall. With the challenging political climate in the Middle East, we expect RevPAR in the region will decline at a low single-digit rate in the first quarter and will be flattish for full year 2019. In 2018, MEA accounted for 4% of our hotel-based fees.

在中東和非洲，第四季每間可供出租客房收入下降超過 5%。由於旅遊需求強勁，埃及本季每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）大幅成長。然而，對卡達的持續制裁、阿聯酋和沙烏地阿拉伯的供應過剩以及較高的增值稅，導致該地區整體的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長持續下降。鑑於中東地區充滿挑戰的政治環境，我們預計該地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在第一季將以較低的個位數速度下降，並在 2019 年全年保持穩定。2018 年，MEA 占我們飯店相關費用的 4%。

Beyond things I've already discussed, our 2018 successes on other fronts also give us greater confidence in the future. We'll talk more about these at the analyst meeting later this month. Our Homesharing Pilot in Europe attracted great interest from our loyalty program members and yielded significant learnings. We've made meaningful progress on transforming the Sheraton brand with new designs, higher guest satisfaction and better margins. We rolled out new co-branded credit cards and generated record branding fees. And we exceeded our expected bookings on our new Ritz-Carlton yacht. We believe that all of this, built on a foundation of industry-leading brands and the most powerful loyalty program in travel as well as our long commitment to service excellence, will continue to propel Marriott's success.

除了我剛才提到的那些事情之外，我們在 2018 年在其他方面的成功也讓我們對未來更有信心。我們將在本月稍後的分析師會議上詳細討論這些問題。我們在歐洲開展的房屋共享試點計畫引起了會員忠誠計畫成員的極大興趣，並獲得了重要的經驗。我們在喜來登品牌轉型方面取得了實質進展，包括全新的設計、更高的賓客滿意度和更好的利潤率。我們推出了新的聯名信用卡，並獲得了創紀錄的品牌推廣費。我們新購買的麗思卡爾頓遊艇的預訂量超出了預期。我們相信，這一切建立在業界領先的品牌、旅遊業最強大的忠誠度計劃以及我們對卓越服務的長期承諾之上，並將繼續推動萬豪的成功。

With a highly efficient cost structure, we should deliver leading profitability for our owners and franchisees. For all of this, I'd like to thank the Marriott Associates, whose hard work made all of these possible and, of course, to our many guests who have remained loyal and patient through the transition. To tell you more about the quarter, I'd love to turn the call over to Leeny. Leeny?

憑藉高效的成本結構，我們應該能夠為我們的業主和加盟商帶來領先的獲利能力。在此，我要感謝萬豪酒店的員工們，是他們的辛勤工作使這一切成為可能；當然，也要感謝眾多賓客，在過渡期間，他們始終保持著忠誠和耐心。為了更詳細地向大家介紹本季的情況，我非常樂意把電話交給李尼。莉妮？

Thank you, Arne. For the fourth quarter of 2018, adjusted diluted earnings per share totaled $1.44, roughly $0.05 ahead of the midpoint of our guidance of $1.37 to $1.41. On the fee line, we picked up about $0.01 of outperformance, largely due to better-than-expected credit card branding fees and fees from new units. G&A was $0.01 better-than-expected and the tax line yield about $0.03 of outperformance, partially due to discrete tax items.

謝謝你，阿恩。2018 年第四季度，經調整後的稀釋每股收益總計 1.44 美元，比我們先前預測的 1.37 美元至 1.41 美元的中點高出約 0.05 美元。在費用方面，我們獲得了約 0.01 美元的超額收益，這主要是由於信用卡品牌推廣費和新設備的費用好於預期。一般及行政費用比預期好 0.01 美元，稅收收入比預期好約 0.03 美元，部分原因是由於個別稅收項目。

Compared to the prior year, base fees increased 1%. The favorable impact of unit additions and RevPAR growth was largely offset by the impact of properties that converted to franchise as well as hotel deletions during the year. Franchise fees increased 13% in the quarter, reflecting unit growth, including properties converting to franchise, growth in credit card branding fees and higher RevPAR. Nonproperty franchise fees, including application fees, relicensing fees and fees from our timeshare credit card and residential businesses, together, totaled over $140 million in the quarter, 24% higher than the prior year. Credit card branding fees alone increased 44% in the quarter to reach over $100 million for the quarter and $380 million for full year 2018.

與前一年相比，基本費用增加了 1%。新增單位和每間可供出租客房收入成長帶來的有利影響，很大程度上被轉為特許經營的酒店以及年內酒店倒閉的影響所抵消。本季度特許經營費增長了 13%，反映了單位增長（包括物業轉為特許經營）、信用卡品牌費增長以及每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增加。本季非房地產特許經營費（包括申請費、重新許可費以及分時度假信用卡和住宅業務的費用）總計超過 1.4 億美元，比去年同期增長 24%。光是信用卡品牌推廣費一項，本季就成長了 44%，達到 1 億美元以上，2018 年全年達到 3.8 億美元。

Incentive fees declined 4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, largely due to a $7 million impact from the labor strikes, as well as difficult comparisons in the Middle East and unfavorable foreign exchange. Incentive fees were helped by new unit growth and higher net house profit at most hotels.

第四季激勵費用年減 4%，主要原因是勞工罷工造成 700 萬美元的影響，以及中東地區基數較高和不利的匯率波動。獎勵費用的增加得益於大多數酒店的新單元數量增長和更高的淨利潤。

Owned, leased and other revenue, net of expenses, totaled $88 million in the fourth quarter compared to $89 million in the year-ago quarter. Since the beginning of 2017 fourth quarter, we've sold 7 owned hotels in nearly all cases retaining long-term management agreements. Compared to the prior year, these asset sales reduced our fourth quarter 2018 owned, leased results by $14 million. Termination fees are also included on the owned, leased line. These fees totaled $15 million in the quarter compared to $4 million in the year-ago quarter.

第四季自有、租賃及其他收入（扣除支出後）總計 8,800 萬美元，而去年同期為 8,900 萬美元。自 2017 年第四季開始以來，我們已售出 7 家自有飯店，幾乎所有情況下都保留了長期管理協議。與去年同期相比，這些資產出售使我們 2018 年第四季的自有租賃業績減少了 1,400 萬美元。自有或租用線路也包含終止費用。本季這些費用總計 1,500 萬美元，而去年同期為 400 萬美元。

Depreciation and amortization increased to $62 million in the quarter compared to $53 million in the prior year. The increase was largely due to a $7 million favorable adjustment related to Legacy-Starwood IT systems in the 2017 quarter. General and administrative expenses totaled $242 million in the fourth quarter, a 10% decline from the year-ago quarter, largely reflecting continued cost reductions due to the Starwood integration. Partially offsetting these cost savings was a $7 million expense associated with our supplemental investment in the workforce.

本季折舊和攤銷費用增加至 6,200 萬美元，而去年同期為 5,300 萬美元。此次成長主要是由於 2017 年季度與 Legacy-Starwood IT 系統相關的 700 萬美元有利調整。第四季一般及行政費用總計 2.42 億美元，比上年同期下降 10%，主要反映了由於喜達屋整合而持續降低的成本。部分抵銷這些成本節約的是與我們對員工隊伍的額外投資相關的 700 萬美元支出。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 10% over adjusted EBITDA in the prior year. Compared to the prior year, fourth quarter 2018 adjusted EBITDA was negatively impacted by $12 million from sold hotels. Fourth quarter expenses associated with the data security incident that we disclosed on November 30 totaled $28 million pretax, offset by approximately $25 million of insurance recoveries as of year-end. The net of these amounts is either in reimbursed expenses line or the merger-related costs and charges line. Therefore, these expenses did not impact adjusted EPS or adjusted EBITDA results. The timing of the expenses associated with the data security incident may differ from the timing of the recognition of insurance recoveries.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 比上年同期成長 10%。與去年同期相比，2018 年第四季調整後的 EBITDA 因出售飯店而減少了 1,200 萬美元。11 月 30 日揭露的資料安全事件相關的第四季支出稅前總額為 2,800 萬美元，截至年底，已獲得約 2,500 萬美元的保險賠償。這些金額的淨額要麼計入已報銷費用項，要麼計入與合併相關的成本和費用項。因此，這些費用並未影響調整後的每股盈餘或調整後的 EBITDA 表現。與資料安全事件相關的費用發生時間可能與保險賠償確認時間不同。

In the fourth quarter, we identified certain immaterial errors related to our accounting for our loyalty program, which resulted in the understatement of cost reimbursement revenue, net of reimbursed expenses, in the first 3 quarters of 2018. Our 10-K, which should be filed later today, will include revised GAAP quarterly amounts, reflecting the corrections of these errors, the impact of which is a $99 million increase to previously reported net income for the first 3 quarters of 2018 combined.

第四季度，我們發現與忠誠度計畫的會計處理相關的某些非實質性錯誤，導致 2018 年前三個季度的成本補償收入（扣除已補償費用後）被低估。我們今天稍後提交的 10-K 表格將包含修訂後的 GAAP 季度金額，反映出對這些錯誤的更正，其影響是使 2018 年前三個季度的淨收入合計增加 9,900 萬美元。

In our 10-K, we will report a material weakness in internal control over financial reporting related to loyalty program accounting. We remain committed to maintaining effective internal controls or in the process of instituting a remediation plan. These accounting adjustments were limited to the cost reimbursement revenue and reimbursed expenses lines on our P&L and the related tax impact. The adjustments are noncash and do not impact our previously reported adjusted EPS or adjusted EBITDA amounts.

在我們的 10-K 文件中，我們將報告與忠誠度計畫會計相關的財務報告內部控制的重大缺陷。我們將繼續致力於維持有效的內部控制，或正在製定補救計劃。這些會計調整僅限於損益表中的成本補償收入和已補償費用項目以及相關的稅務影響。這些調整是非現金調整，不會影響我們先前公佈的調整後每股盈餘或調整後 EBITDA 金額。

For full year 2019, we expect fee revenue will increase 5% to 7% to reach $3.83 billion to $3.91 billion. We expect to achieve this despite $15 million to $20 million of unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, low single-digit growth in incentive fees and lost fees from terminated properties in 2018. We expect credit card branding fees alone will total $410 million to $420 million as a result of continued growth in the number of new cardholders and higher average spend.

我們預計 2019 年全年手續費收入將成長 5% 至 7%，達到 38.3 億美元至 39.1 億美元。儘管面臨 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元的不利外匯影響、激勵費用的個位數低增長以及 2018 年終止物業的費用損失，我們仍有望實現這一目標。由於新持卡人數量持續成長和平均消費額提高，我們預計光是信用卡品牌推廣費就將達到 4.1 億美元至 4.2 億美元。

In 2019, owned, leased and other revenue, net of direct expenses, should total $280 million to $290 million compared to $329 million in 2018. We expect termination fees will be roughly $20 million or $45 million to $50 million lower than 2018. During the first quarter of 2019, we closed on the purchase of the remaining 40% joint venture interest in AC Hotels, resulting in the company owning all of this highly successful and fast-growing global brand.

2019 年，自有資產、租賃資產和其他收入（扣除直接支出後）總計應為 2.8 億美元至 2.9 億美元，而 2018 年為 3.29 億美元。我們預計終止費用將比 2018 年減少約 2,000 萬美元，或 4,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元。2019 年第一季度，我們完成了對 AC Hotels 剩餘 40% 合資權益的收購，從而使公司擁有了這個非常成功且快速增長的全球品牌的全部股份。

We entered into our original AC joint venture agreement in 2011. Since then, we've almost tripled the distribution to 265 AC Hotels opened or under development around the world. As a result of our purchase of the remaining interest, our joint venture earnings will be a bit lower in 2019, while fees and G&A will reflect our 100% ownership of the brand. We estimate general and administrative expenses will total $910 million to $920 million in 2019, a 1% to 2% decline from 2018 levels. Recall that full year 2018 G&A included a $51 million expense for our supplemental workforce investment.

我們於 2011 年簽訂了最初的 AC 合資協議。自那時以來，我們的分銷規模幾乎翻了三倍，目前全球已有 265 家 AC 酒店開業或正在籌建。由於我們收購了剩餘股份，我們合資企業的收益在 2019 年將略有下降，而費用和一般管理費用將反映我們 100% 擁有該品牌。我們預計 2019 年一般及行政費用總額將達到 9.1 億美元至 9.2 億美元，比 2018 年下降 1% 至 2%。請記住，2018 年全年一般及行政費用包括 5,100 萬美元的補充勞動力投資支出。

Because of our outstanding capital recycling in 2018, our 2018 adjusted diluted EPS included $0.65 per share of after-tax gains on the sale of owned and joint venture assets. 2018 results also reflected an effective tax rate of 19%, reflecting the benefit from windfall tax and some discrete items. For full year 2019, we expect adjusted diluted EPS will total $5.87 to $6.10, a 2% to 5% decline from the 2018 adjusted diluted EPS of $6.21, reflecting a more typical effective tax rate of 23% for the year and no further asset sales.

由於我們在 2018 年實現了出色的資本再利用，我們 2018 年調整後的稀釋每股收益包括出售自有和合資資產的稅後收益每股 0.65 美元。2018 年的業績也反映出實際稅率為 19%，這反映了暴利稅和一些特殊項目的收益。我們預計 2019 年全年調整後攤薄每股收益將達到 5.87 美元至 6.10 美元，比 2018 年調整後攤薄每股收益 6.21 美元下降 2% 至 5%，這反映了該年度更典型的 23% 的有效稅率以及沒有進一步的資產出售。

To summarize, compared to our adjusted EPS for 2018, our EPS estimate for 2019 assumes higher fees and lower G&A, offset by lower year-over-year termination fees, lower gains, a higher tax rate and higher foreign exchange headwinds. We expect adjusted EBITDA will total roughly $3.62 billion to $3.72 billion, or 4% to 7% over 2018 levels. Our 2019 adjusted EBITDA will also face the headwinds from lower termination fees and foreign exchange. While we are hopeful we will sell additional assets in 2019, our guidance assumes no asset sales and no net expense from the data security incident.

總而言之，與我們 2018 年調整後的每股收益相比，我們對 2019 年每股收益的預測假設費用增加和一般及行政費用降低，但被同比終止費降低、收益降低、稅率提高和外匯逆風加劇所抵消。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 總額約為 36.2 億美元至 37.2 億美元，比 2018 年的水準成長 4% 至 7%。我們 2019 年調整後的 EBITDA 也將面臨終止費降低和外匯波動帶來的不利影響。雖然我們希望在 2019 年出售更多資產，但我們的預期是假設不會出售任何資產，也不會因資料安全事件產生淨支出。

We remain disciplined in our approach to capital investment and share repurchase. We returned nearly $3.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases through year-end 2018. This reflected the company's strong operating cash flow, the benefit of $650 million of asset recycling, including joint venture sales of 2 hotels as well as loyalty program cash inflows. Our recent share repurchases have been modestly lower than we expected as we suspended share repurchases for a time while we worked through the data security incident and the loyalty accounting matter.

我們在資本投資和股票回購方面始終保持嚴謹的態度。截至 2018 年底，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了近 34 億美元。這反映了該公司強勁的經營現金流，以及 6.5 億美元的資產回收利用帶來的收益，其中包括合資出售 2 家酒店以及忠誠度計劃的現金流入。由於我們暫停了股票回購一段時間以處理資料安全事件和忠誠度會計問題，因此我們最近的股票回購規模略低於預期。

Speaking of the loyalty program, it generated several hundred million dollars of cash in 2018, more than is typical in most years. This was in part due to a large onetime cash payment received from the credit card companies upon signing of our co-branded credit card agreements. In 2019, we expect the loyalty program will likely be closer to cash flow neutral due to the timing of marketing and related costs associated with the launch of Marriott Bonvoy and higher redemptions.

說到會員忠誠度計劃，它在 2018 年創造了數億美元的現金收入，比往年都要多。部分原因是我們在簽署聯名信用卡協議時，從信用卡公司收到了一筆大額一次性現金付款。2019 年，由於萬豪旅享家 (Marriott Bonvoy) 的推出以及相關的行銷和成本以及更高的兌換率，我們預期忠誠度計畫的現金流可能會更接近中性。

2019 investment spending can total $500 million to $700 million, including about $225 million in maintenance CapEx spending. We've already recycled nearly $1.9 billion of assets since closing the Starwood acquisition, including $650 million in 2018.

2019 年的投資支出總額可能達到 5 億至 7 億美元，其中包括約 2.25 億美元的維護性資本支出。自從完成對喜達屋的收購以來，我們已經回收了近 19 億美元的資產，其中包括 2018 年的 6.5 億美元。

Thus far in 2019, we have repurchased 2.4 million shares for $300 million. For the full year, assuming no asset sales, we expect we will return at least $3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Our debt ratio on December 31 was within our targeted credit standard of 3 to 3.5 adjusted debt to combined adjusted EBITDAR. You will recall that our capital allocation strategy is built around our commitment to maintain a solid investment-grade credit rating. We've targeted this rating in recognition of the value of financial flexibility in a cyclical business.

截至 2019 年，我們已回購 240 萬股股票，耗資 3 億美元。假設全年不進行資產出售，我們預計透過股利和股票回購，我們將至少向股東返還 30 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的負債比率符合我們設定的信貸標準，即調整後債務與合併調整後 EBITDAR 比率為 3 至 3.5。您應該記得，我們​​的資本配置策略是圍繞著我們維持穩健的投資等級信用評等這一承諾而製定的。我們之所以給予這樣的評級，是因為我們認識到財務靈活性在週期性行業中的重要性。

We also strive to maintain the right balance between minimizing our cost of debt and having sufficient leverage to enhance returns. We know you're always eager for more information. We hope you can join us on March 18, 2019, at the New York Marriott Marquis for our Security Analyst Meeting, where we will spend more time looking to our future opportunities. Please be sure to register for the conference with Investor Relations if you'll be coming. (Operator Instructions)

我們也努力在最大限度地降低債務成本和擁有足夠的槓桿來提高回報之間保持適當的平衡。我們知道您一直渴望獲得更多資訊。我們希望您能於 2019 年 3 月 18 日蒞臨紐約萬豪侯爵酒店，參加我們的安全分析師會議，屆時我們將花更多時間展望未來的機會。如果您要參加會議，請務必到投資者關係部門進行註冊。（操作說明）

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

I'd like to maybe start with the core SG&A. Obviously, there's a lot of moving pieces between everything you're working on in the integration, the new launch of Marriott Bonvoy and some of the other investments that you're making. I think when we do our math and we try and strip out the employee investment, we get something like roughly a 4%, maybe 4% to 4.5% growth rate in SG&A. And just wondering if you could kind of give us some -- a little bit of longer-term view. Is that sort of the right level for the business going forward? Or is that a little bit elevated based on some of these other things you're dealing with, just as we think about the model, long term?

我想先從核心的銷售、一般及行政費用開始。顯然，在整合工作、萬豪旅享家新推出以及你正在進行的其他一些投資之間，有很多環節需要協調配合。我認為，當我們進行計算並剔除員工投資後，銷售、一般及行政費用增長率約為 4%，可能在 4% 到 4.5% 之間。想問您能否給我們一些——一些更長遠的看法。這個水準對公司未來的發展來說合適嗎？或者，考慮到您正在處理的其他一些因素，以及我們從長遠角度考慮這個模型，這個數字是否略微偏高了？

Yes, no, it's a good question and thanks. I think it's one of the reasons we wanted to make sure to mention about the purchase of the AC joint venture. If you think about that going from being our equity line to now being fully consolidated, we're going to be adding between $5 million to $10 million of G&A that comes from moving the geography of that line item into our G&A. So actually, you need to remove a full point of the growth that comes from just that change in and of itself. But certainly, as we think about the long-term growth in G&A, we do continue to think that we will see additional operating leverage in the business as we move forward. And we look forward to talking to you more about it when we talk about our longer-term horizon at the Security Analyst Day.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，謝謝。我認為這也是我們想要特別提及收購AC合資企業的原因之一。如果你考慮到這筆款項從我們的權益項目變為現在的完全合併項目，我們將增加 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的 G&A 費用，這是因為將該項目的地域範圍轉移到了我們的 G&A 中。所以實際上，你需要消除僅僅由這種變化本身帶來的一個完整的成長點。但可以肯定的是，當我們考慮 G&A 的長期成長時，我們仍然認為，隨著業務的推進，我們將看到業務營運槓桿的進一步提升。我們期待在安全分析師日上與您進一步探討我們的長期發展方向。

Maybe just a kind of follow-up, more as a clarification then. With the -- are there any sort of onetime expenses or anything that you guys are contemplating from, let's call it, some of the -- whether it's integration carryover and putting some additional property salespeople in to help Starwood owners or anything from the data breach? Just anything investors should be aware of as it relates to the, I guess, the number itself in 2019.

或許只是一種後續跟進，更像是一種澄清。關於－你們有沒有考慮過一些一次性支出或其他方面，例如，一些整合遺留問題，例如增加一些房產銷售人員來幫助喜達屋業主，或是資料外洩事件帶來的任何問題？我想，投資人應該了解一些與 2019 年的數字本身相關的資訊。

Shaun, I'd jump in here for a second. The specific hypotheticals you raised are really not in that number in the sense that the cyber event, which obviously will continue to cost us some dollars, we think, will go mostly in the transaction cost, integration cost and reimbursed expenses buckets and will not be in that core G&A number. And, obviously, what we do with respect to sales force and the like would likely be treated very much the same way. But to be fair, while we are focused very much on making sure we continue to drive efficiencies in the business, we are continuing to invest for the future. And we've got exciting growth taking place across many aspects of the business, and, that does require some investments. I think we will continue to be able to grow our G&A expenses at a meaningfully lower pace than we can grow our top line.

肖恩，我想插一句。你提出的具體假設其實並不包含在這個數字中，因為網路事件顯然會繼續給我們造成一些損失，我們認為，這些損失主要計入交易成本、整合成本和報銷費用，而不計入核心的一般及行政費用。顯然，我們對銷售團隊等方面的處理方式也可能大同小異。但公平地說，雖然我們非常注重確保繼續提高業務效率，但我們也持續為未來進行投資。公司在各方面都取得了令人振奮的成長，而這確實需要一些投資。我認為，我們的管理費用成長速度將持續遠低於營收成長速度。

Your next question comes from the line of Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So Arne, can you just talk broadly about the demand environment and what you're seeing right now? I think the last call, you called out some demand softness in September quarter on RevPAR. Obviously, it came in a little bit lighter for various reasons. Can you talk about that, how that's progressed and really so far year-to-date now that we're through, I think, a lot of the government shutdown and some of the onetime things that we experienced in January, maybe you can just talk a little bit about how that's trended.

那麼，Arne，你能否大致談談目前的需求環境以及你觀察到的情況？我認為在上次電話會議中，您指出了9月份季度RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）需求疲軟的情況。顯然，由於各種原因，它的重量略輕了一些。能談談這方面的情況嗎？進展如何？現在我們已經度過了政府停擺和一月份經歷的一些突發事件，今年到目前為止，情況如何？能談談這方面的趨勢嗎？

Yes. So there's a lot I could unpack in that, and let me give you at least a superficial run through both fourth quarter and kind of the way we think about 2019. And then, obviously, over the balance of the call, we can probe any of this in more depth to the extent any of you would like us to. Fourth quarter, obviously, think particularly about North America, which is where my comments will focus, unless I sort of specify otherwise. But fourth quarter was lighter than we anticipated, without a doubt. And we have system-wide RevPAR growth of 0.2%. Obviously, we have coped and prodded at those numbers in every way we possibly can to try and glean as much learning out of them as we can. There are a couple of places where it's pretty clear what the impacts are. The first would be on strikes, which we called out in both the script and the release itself. Obviously, during the fourth quarter of 2018, we had strikes in 6 or 8 cities across the United States, including very significant hotels in markets like Boston and San Francisco and Honolulu, but also in a few other markets. And we can very easily zero in on that and see that those hotels alone caused us to lose 0.5 point of RevPAR index in Q4. So it's a pretty significant kind of impact. Obviously, that is, by and large, behind us. It's pretty clearly a onetime event. There's a little bit of lingering impact, particularly in Hawaii, because you do have some impact while the strikes are still pending on the bookings that are coming in for futures stays. But now that they're behind us, that should rebound fairly quickly. On the other side, one thing we think we've reasonably well excluded, we also put in the script, which is the impact of the cyber announcement on November 30. That, too, is a relatively easy thing to look at because you can look at customer behavior after a date certain when an event was announced. And we really did not see any move by customers in response to that. Now beyond that, we've looked at a number of other things, some of them logically seemed to us to probably, perhaps, have had some impact to the fourth quarter. Some -- it's a little hard to sort of separate them out in a way. But we've got -- we talked before about this over 2018. We have been a bit more aggressive in yielding our inventory off of some channels, which are less preferred. And during the fourth quarter, it's quite conceivable that, that could have had some impact, the way it has had in prior quarters. Group intermediation fees, group commission fees, we had moved first, and while many of our principal competitors have moved similarly, we were exposed to having lower commissions for much of 2018. And we think probably in the year, for the year group bookings would have been most pronounced impact in Q4. And lastly, of course, as we mentioned, we had big integration movements in Q4, moving the Starwood Hotels onto Marriott's revenue systems, think about reservations and catering and revenue management. That is a big suite of systems that hotel teams and above-property teams have got to get used to using, which is about training and it's about calibrating the systems and some of those sorts of things, and we can talk about any of that. But it's quite logical that, that could have had some impact there, too. I go through all that in part because I think when we look into 2019, which is, in many respects, the most important question. Ironically, we're maybe as optimistic or maybe even a little bit more optimistic than we were a quarter ago. A quarter ago, we had not done our budget. A quarter ago, we didn't have the weaker Q4 that we were looking at. And notwithstanding that, we see, really, in the U.S. a sort of steady-state set of expectations for 2019. In fact, if -- we've talked in a few quarters, I don't think last quarter, but a few in the last couple of years. When we look at quarter by quarter, North American RevPAR performance and we adjust for holidays shifting from one quarter to another or hurricanes or inaugurals or the like, what we see is a sort of typical quarterly RevPAR growth in the high 1s, nearly 2%, in 2017 and 2018. And you can see in our midpoint for 2019, we're really looking at 2%. And so we feel pretty good and feel, again, probably just a touch more optimistic than we did a quarter ago.

是的。所以這裡面有很多東西我可以詳細解釋，讓我至少粗略地向你介紹一下第四季以及我們對 2019 年的看法。然後，很顯然，在接下來的通話時間裡，我們可以根據各位的意願，對這些問題進行更深入的探討。顯然，第四季要特別關注北美地區，除非我另有說明，否則我的評論將主要集中在北美地區。但毫無疑問，第四季比我們預期的要輕鬆。我們系統整體的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 0.2%。顯然，我們已經盡一切可能去分析和研究這些數據，試圖從中汲取盡可能多的經驗教訓。有些地方的影響非常明顯。首先是關於罷工的問題，我們在劇本和新聞稿中都提到了這一點。顯然，在 2018 年第四季度，美國各地有 6 到 8 個城市發生了罷工，其中包括波士頓、舊金山和檀香山等市場的幾家非常重要的酒店，以及其他一些市場的酒店。我們可以很容易地發現，光是這些飯店就導致我們在第四季的RevPAR指數下降了0.5個百分點。所以這是相當重大的影響。顯然，那件事基本上已經過去了。這顯然是一次性事件。罷工的影響將持續一段時間，尤其是在夏威夷，因為罷工的影響尚未完全消除，未來住宿的預訂也會受到影響。但現在這些都已成為過去，情況應該很快就會反彈。另一方面，我們認為已經相當充分地排除了一件事，我們也把它放進了劇本里，那就是 11 月 30 日網路安全公告的影響。這也是比較容易觀察的事情，因為你可以觀察在某個事件宣布後的特定日期之後客戶的行為。而我們並沒有看到客戶對此做出任何反應。除此之外，我們也檢視了一些其他因素，其中一些因素在邏輯上似乎可能對第四季產生了一定的影響。有些——很難將它們區分開來。但是我們之前在 2018 年就討論過這個問題。我們採取了更積極的措施，從一些不太受歡迎的管道撤出我們的庫存。第四季度，這種情況很可能像前幾季一樣，產生了一定的影響。團體中介費、團體佣金，我們率先採取了行動，雖然我們的許多主要競爭對手也採取了類似的行動，但我們在 2018 年的大部分時間裡都面臨著佣金較低的情況。我們認為，就全年而言，團體預訂量受到的影響可能在第四季最為顯著。最後，當然，正如我們所提到的，我們在第四季度進行了大規模的整合，將喜達屋酒店轉移到萬豪的收入系統，包括預訂、餐飲和收益管理。這是一套龐大的系統，飯店團隊和上級團隊都必須習慣使用，這涉及培訓、系統校準等等，我們可以討論其中的任何內容。但很合乎邏輯的是，這很可能也對那裡產生了一些影響。我之所以經歷這一切，部分原因是我認為當我們展望 2019 年時，這在許多方面都是最重要的問題。諷刺的是，我們現在的樂觀程度可能與三個月前一樣，甚至可能要略微樂觀一些。三個月前，我們還沒有製定預算。三個月前，我們還沒有預料到第四季業績會比較疲軟。儘管如此，我們看到，在美國，人們對 2019 年的預期實際上已經趨於穩定。事實上，如果——我們已經談過好幾個季度了，我想上個季度沒有，但過去幾年裡談過幾次。當我們逐季度查看北美RevPAR表現，並根據假日從一個季度轉移到另一個季度、颶風、就職典禮等因素進行調整後，我們發現2017年和2018年季度RevPAR增長率在1%以上，接近2%。您可以從我們 2019 年的中期數據中看到，我們實際的目標數字是 2%。所以我們感覺相當不錯，而且感覺比三個月前更樂觀一些。

That's really helpful. And then, I guess, just shifting to unit growth. As we look at units beyond 2019, I imagine you'll dig more into this at the Analyst Day. But what's the right way to think about this over the longer term? I guess, really, 2 components, you've got the growth side and you've got the exits. On the growth side, how are you thinking about that 7%? And the pipeline showed another nice sequential increase this quarter. So is it possible that you could go beyond the 7%? And then, I guess, on the exit side, is 1% to 1.5% the right way to think about that over the longer term? Or do you think you have some room to improve on that?

這真的很有幫助。然後，我想，就轉向單位成長了。當我們展望 2019 年以後的業績時，我想您會在分析師日上對此進行更深入的探討。但從長遠來看，正確的思考方式是什麼呢？我覺得，實際上，它由兩個部分組成：成長方面和退出方面。從成長的角度來看，您如何看待這7%的成長？本季管道建設也實現了不錯的環比成長。那麼，有可能超過7%嗎？那麼，我想，從退出的角度來看，長期來看，1%到1.5%是否是正確的考慮因素？還是你認為自己在這方面還有進步空間？

So we'll take you through a model of this at the analyst conference and give you a considerable level of detail about it. I think a couple of things are reasonably obvious here. One is, we'll continue to see some deletion behavior. We have obviously been in the business for a long time, and we want to see some number of hotels leave our system every year because of the importance of product quality. We think 1% to 1.5% is probably the right sort of steady-state assumption for now. But again, we'll take you through why that makes sense when we're together in March. In terms of future years' gross new openings, I think the most comforting thing here, I'm not going to give you another percentage other than what we've talked about this morning, is that 478,000-room pipeline is, as of the end of the year, net of all activity, all activity to include the incoming new deals, the openings that have opened into the system in 2018, but also the deals that we have called because they look less likely to open. And all of that, we still have, whatever it was, our 25th straight quarter, I can't remember precisely the number...

所以，我們將在分析師大會上向您介紹這個模型，並為您提供相當詳細的資訊。我認為這裡有幾件事顯而易見。第一，我們將繼續看到一些刪除行為。我們顯然已經在這個行業經營了很長時間，而且由於產品品質的重要性，我們希望每年都能看到一些酒店退出我們的系統。我們認為目前1%到1.5%可能是比較適合的穩態假設。但是，我們會在三月見面時再詳細解釋為什麼這樣做是合理的。就未來幾年的新增客房數量而言，我認為最令人欣慰的是，除了我們今天早上討論過的百分比之外，我不會再給出其他百分比，那就是截至年底，47.8萬間客房的儲備項目是扣除所有活動後的淨值，所有活動包括即將達成的新協議、2018年已投入運營的酒店，以及我們的那些看起來不太可能取消的協議。而且，我們仍然保持著連續第25個季度盈利的記錄，我記不清確切的數字了…

26th.

26日

26th straight quarter of pipeline growth. And we have a high level of predictability that those hotels are going to open into our system over the next number of years. And so I think that, that kind of superficial look tells you there's some good news in that number. But again, we'll take you through the model when we're together in March.

連續第26個季度實現業務成長。我們非常有把握地預測，在未來幾年內，這些飯店將會加入我們的系統。所以我覺得，從這個表面來看，這個數字背後肯定隱藏著一些好消息。不過，我們會在三月見面的時候再詳細介紹這個模型。

I think the only other thing I'd add is one of the things, I think, we've been particularly gratified by is that as we see these rooms coming on to the pipeline, is the NPV point that Arne mentioned earlier, which is that the value of the deals that we're adding and the strength of the contracts continues to be what we want to see for the long-term growth of cash flow for the company.

我覺得我唯一要補充的是，我們特別欣慰的一點是，隨著這些項目陸續進入項目流程，正如 Arne 之前提到的，淨現值 (NPV) 點表明，我們新增交易的價值和合約的力度，正是我們希望看到的，能夠促進公司現金流的長期增長。

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Powell of Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安東尼鮑威爾。

You started the call with some very positive data points on customer engagement with the loyalty program. Could you maybe focus that commentary on Legacy-Starwood loyalty members and Legacy-Starwood properties? Are those customers as engaged with the new program as your Legacy-Marriott customers? And are your Starwood properties seeing a similar increase in redemptions?

您在通話開始時提供了一些關於客戶參與忠誠度計劃的非常積極的數據點。您能否將評論重點放在 Legacy-Starwood 忠誠會員和 Legacy-Starwood 旗下酒店？這些新客戶對新專案的參與度是否與萬豪老客戶一樣高？您的喜達屋酒店是否也出現了類似的兌換量成長？

Yes, so that's all a good -- very good question. The -- and again, here too, we'll take you through some of this, and considerably more detail when we're together in March and hope we'll be able to see you there. The level of change, obviously, for the legacy SPG member in the latter part of 2018 was meaningfully higher than for the Legacy-Marriott rewards members. The -- so, obviously, we transferred -- internally, we call it something LD1 and RD1. LD1 is loyalty day 1 and that was really in the latter part of August where we transferred, I don't know, 4 billion, if I remember right, customer records from the Legacy-Starwood system and Legacy-Marriott system. And while it went pretty well, there were some areas where the data did not translate accurately, and we ended up with call volume moving up and some wait time issues that were frustrating and probably disproportionately impacting the SPG members whose data was transferred. And so we've been working through that as we go along. I think the great news in this is even when we hear complaints from SPG customers, and we have some since the amount of change that they've seen, is that they remain extraordinarily passionate about the program, taking almost a co-ownership state to it. Why? Well, partly, it's their tradition and their history, but significantly, it's because of the portfolio of luxury lifestyle and resort properties, which Starwood had and which now we have on a combined basis at a dramatically improved level. And so when we see redemption behavior, when we see engagement behavior with those customers, they continue to see the strength of this portfolio. And again, for those that are frustrated, we're going to work through this and make sure we'd do well by then. But we're still quite optimistic that this is going to work the way we planned it.

是的，這的確是個好問題──非常好的問題。——而且，我們也會在這裡帶您了解其中的一些內容，並在三月與您見面時提供更多細節，希望屆時能夠見到您。顯然，2018 年下半年，SPG 傳統會員的變化幅度明顯高於萬豪傳統獎勵會員。所以，很顯然，我們內部將其轉移，我們稱之為 LD1 和 RD1。LD1 是忠誠度計畫的第一天，實際上是在 8 月下旬，當時我們從 Legacy-Starwood 系統和 Legacy-Marriott 系統轉移了大約 40 億筆客戶記錄（如果我沒記錯的話）。雖然進展相當順利，但在某些方面資料轉換並不準確，最終導致呼叫量增加，並出現一些等待時間問題，這令人沮喪，而且可能對資料已轉移的 SPG 會員造成了不成比例的影響。所以，我們一直在邊做邊解決這個問題。我認為最令人欣慰的是，即使我們聽到SPG客戶的抱怨（由於他們經歷瞭如此多的變化，我們確實聽到了一些抱怨），他們仍然對該計劃充滿熱情，幾乎將其視為共同所有權。為什麼？一部分原因是他們的傳統和歷史，但更重要的是，這是因為喜達屋擁有豪華生活方式和度假村物業組合，而現在我們將其合併後，水平得到了極大的提高。因此，當我們看到兌換行為，當我們看到與這些客戶的互動行為時，他們就會繼續看到這個產品組合的實力。再次向那些感到沮喪的人保證，我們會努力解決這個問題，確保到時候我們能做得更好。但我們仍然相當樂觀地認為，這件事會照計畫進行。

Got it. Do you see any negative RevPAR index impact in the fourth quarter due to some of those changes you mentioned for the Starwood brands?

知道了。您認為您提到的喜達屋旗下品牌的一些變化是否會對第四季度的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）指數產生負面影響？

Yes. And again, this is -- these are the efforts we've really done that sort of teased through those numbers. The strike commentary that I made, with 50 basis points impact on the entire portfolio, the Starwood and Marriott combined in North America in the fourth quarter. That disproportionately is driven by Starwood Hotels. They were -- they tended to be much more unionized. And so if you look in Boston and San Francisco and Hawaii and these other markets, you'll see that a meaningful majority of the hotels which were impacted were Starwood Hotels. And so that's one of the things that we start with. We have, on the other hand, looked carefully -- and it's hard to get some of this data, but we've looked at some share of wallet data to the extent we can get it. We've looked out some behavior patterns of SPG members. And while that data is not crystal clear, it is not sending alarm bells off. It does not look like we are sort of bleeding volume from the Legacy SPG member, even if we've got a bit of frustration that we've been working our way through. By the way, it's not all behind us, but much of that is behind us. Call wait times are back to normal levels, they have been for some time. The data issues are getting knocked off one by one and, by and large, are behind us. And so we think we're making good progress there.

是的。再說一遍，這就是──這就是我們真正努力分析這些數字的結果。我發表的評論指出，罷工對整個投資組合（喜達屋和萬豪在北美的第四季度合計）產生了 50 個基點的影響。這主要由喜達屋酒店集團推動。確實如此——他們的工會化程度往往更高。因此，如果你看看波士頓、舊金山、夏威夷以及其他這些市場，你會發現受影響的酒店絕大多數都是喜達屋酒店集團旗下的酒店。所以這是我們首先要處理的事情之一。另一方面，我們已經仔細研究過——雖然有些數據很難獲取，但我們已經在力所能及的範圍內研究了一些錢包份額數據。我們觀察了一些SPG成員的行為模式。雖然這些數據並不十分明確，但也沒有發出警報。雖然我們遇到了一些挫折，但看起來我們並沒有因為 Legacy SPG 成員而損失任何數量，儘管我們一直在努力克服這些挫折。順便說一句，雖然事情還沒有完全過去，但大部分事情已經過去了。電話等待時間已恢復正常水平，而且這種情況已經持續了一段時間。數據問題正在逐一解決，整體而言，這些問題已經過去了。所以我們認為我們在這方面取得了良好的進展。

Your next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose of Citi.

你的下一個問題來自 Smedes Rose of Citi 的系列。

I wanted to follow up just a little bit on your commentary on lifestyle and luxury hotels. You're -- obviously, you're growing at a very fast pace, and folks are going to look to redeem their points. I'm just wondering, in your CapEx guidance and thoughts about adding properties, maybe even more in the soft brand collections, are you more focused on resorts now than you may have otherwise been? Do you feel like that's something you need to improve in your overall portfolio? Or is the balance right where is it now?

我想就您關於生活方式和豪華酒店的評論稍作補充。顯然，你們的發展速度非常快，人們會想辦法兌換他們的積分。我只是想問一下，在您的資本支出指導和關於增加物業的想法中，尤其是在軟品牌系列方面，您現在是否比以往更加關注度假村？你覺得這是你整體投資組合中需要改進的地方嗎？或者說，目前的平衡狀態是否恰到好處？

Well...

出色地...

I was just going to say -- I'll talk about one thing first and then Arne can talk more broadly. Just from a CapEx standpoint, the numbers that we talked about, $500 million to $700 million, that does not assume any particular single asset purchases or built on balance sheet. Now it does include the CapEx PIP that we're doing for the Sheraton in Phoenix, which as we've talked before, let's call it, in the ballpark of $40 million and that is in our CapEx numbers. But in terms of including a fundamental asset purchase, those are not in our numbers.

我本來想說──我先談一件事，然後阿恩可以更廣泛地談談。僅從資本支出角度來看，我們討論的數字是 5 億至 7 億美元，這還不包括任何特定的單一資產購買或資產負債表建設。現在它確實包含了我們正在為鳳凰城喜來登酒店進行的資本支出改進計劃 (CapEx PIP)，正如我們之前討論過的，我們姑且稱之為 4000 萬美元左右，這筆錢也包含在我們的資本支出數字中。但就納入基本資產購買而言，這些並未包含在我們的數據中。

Yes, the -- I think, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think our pipeline includes something like 400 luxury hotels across the globe. And it is, far and away, the biggest pipeline in the luxury space in the industry. And so we know we've got exciting openings, which are coming down the pike and which will further strengthen our leadership in this space. We obviously want to see those units continue to come into the system. We are overwhelmingly going to depend on our organic growth and organic partners to drive those deals. But we've got a lot of good news, which is baked into the pipeline and coming down the pike.

是的，我想——如果我錯了請糾正我——但我認為我們的項目計劃包括全球約 400 家豪華酒店。而且，就奢侈品產業而言，它是迄今為止規模最大的項目。因此，我們知道我們有很多令人興奮的職缺即將到來，這將進一步鞏固我們在該領域的領先地位。我們當然希望看到這些單元繼續進入系統。我們將主要依靠自身業務成長和合作夥伴來推動這些交易。但我們有很多好消息，這些消息已經納入計劃，即將推出。

And I just wanted to ask you on the international side, you brought down your RevPAR outlook a little bit from your -- from the last quarter. I mean, are you actually seeing slightly weaker numbers? Or are you just sort of being more cautious on the international front, given what we've seen since the last time you reported?

我只是想問國際業務方面，你們比上個季度略微下調了RevPAR預期。我的意思是，你們實際看到的數據是否略有下降？或者，鑑於自您上次報道以來我們所看到的種種情況，您在國際方面是否變得更加謹慎了？

I think it's maybe a little bit of both, to be fair. China, as we looked at it over the course of the year in 2018, got weaker with each quarter. That's really not that surprising. I think though as we speak and maybe a part of this is that the China and U.S. seem to have stepped away from the brink recently on the trade -- looming trade war. But the emanations that come out of our team in China and, to some extent, come out of our customers in China feels a bit more optimistic today than it did 30 days ago. And when you look at individual markets in China, you see a story, which is -- has got some hopefulness to it. Hainan, we called out, I think in Hainan, which is Sanya, China, it's sort of China's Florida, if you will, where we must have a couple of dozen, I would guess, full-service and luxury hotels. That is partly supply and partly other factors, which have caused RevPAR to be pretty disappointing, I suppose, in that market. But you look at Beijing and Shanghai and some other key China destinations and they continue to perform pretty well. So while we're a bit more cautious than we would have been at the beginning of 2018, I think we remain pretty optimistic that China will be a positive market for us and continue to present exciting growth opportunities. You go to Europe and we continue to all watch the developments of Brexit. We called out the yellow vest demonstrations in Paris. I think Paris started fourth quarter, and France, as a whole, started fourth quarter very strong. By the time we got into December with the demonstrations and the rest, certainly, it's had an impact on leisure travel. So all of that goes into it, and I think we see some places where we've kind of had specific things that have caused us to be a little bit more modest in our expectations. And to be fair, we've also done the budgeting process over the course of the fourth quarter. So it's not a massive shift as we see it, but it's a bit more conservative.

公平地說，我認為兩者可能都有一點關係。從我們對 2018 年全年狀況的觀察來看，中國經濟每季都在走弱。這其實並不令人意外。不過我認為，就在我們談話之際，或許部分原因是中美兩國最近似乎已經從迫在眉睫的貿易戰邊緣走了出來。但是，從我們中國團隊以及在某種程度上從我們中國客戶那裡感受到的情緒，與 30 天前相比，如今似乎更加樂觀一些。當你觀察中國各個市場時，你會發現一個充滿希望的故事。我們提到了海南，我想是在海南，也就是中國的三亞，那裡有點像中國的佛羅裡達，我猜那裡應該有幾十家提供全方位服務的豪華飯店。我想，這部分是由於供應不足，部分是由於其他因素，這些因素導致了該市場的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）相當令人失望。但看看北京、上海以及其他一些中國主要旅遊目的地，它們的表現仍然相當不錯。因此，雖然我們現在比 2018 年初時更加謹慎一些，但我認為我們仍然相當樂觀地認為，中國將是一個對我們來說充滿希望的市場，並將繼續帶來令人興奮的成長機會。你去了歐洲，我們所有人都在繼續關注英國脫歐的進展。我們譴責了巴黎的「黃背心」運動。我認為巴黎隊在第四季開局非常強勁，法國隊整體在第四季也表現得非常出色。到了 12 月份，隨著示威遊行等事件的發生，休閒旅遊肯定受到了影響。所以所有這些因素都會影響結果，我認為在某些方面，我們遇到了一些具體的事情，導致我們的期望值降低。公平地說，我們在第四季也完成了預算編制工作。所以從我們的角度來看，這並不是一次巨大的轉變，而是更保守了一些。

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes of SunTrust.

你的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

I'm wondering how you think about the mix in growth rates or declines for ADR versus occupancy for North America for this year. Just looking at Smith Travel sort of back of the envelope, it would appear through January and February for you folks, you're negative 1% to maybe negative 1.5% in occupancy. How do you see the rest of the year shaping up in the ADR occupancy mix?

我想知道您如何看待今年北美地區平均房價與入住率成長率或下降幅度之間的關係。僅憑史密斯旅行社的粗略估算，你們一月和二月的入住率似乎會下降 1% 到 1.5%。您認為今年剩餘時間裡，平均房價入住率的走勢會如何？

Yes, I would guess that it should be nearly 100% rate-driven in -- I'm trying to look and see if I can lay my fingers on our January numbers, which I don't see here. But the -- I think when you look at -- just take our midpoint of 2% for North America, I would guess that, that will be nearly entirely rate-driven. You've got supply continue to grow in the United States at nearly 2%. It might be 1.8% or 1.9%, something like that, but obviously, it means you've got to have demand grow in that range in order to have flat occupancy. And I think that's kind of what we've seen a bit in the last few quarters and probably what we'll see this year.

是的，我估計這幾乎完全是由利率驅動的——我正在努力查找我們一月份的數據，但我在這裡沒有找到。但是——我認為，當你觀察——就以北美2%的中點數值來看，我估計，這將幾乎完全由利率驅動。美國的供應量持續以近 2% 的速度成長。可能是 1.8% 或 1.9% 之類的，但顯然，這意味著需求必須增長到該範圍內才能保持入住率穩定。我認為這正是我們在過去幾季所看到的，也可能是我們今年會看到的。

Okay. And then a follow-up question. I'd be interested to hear about where you currently stand with your IMF contribution from Asia Pacific and Europe as it relates to overall IMFs, kind of percentage-wise?

好的。然後又問了一個後續問題。我想了解您目前在亞太和歐洲地區對國際貨幣基金組織的捐款佔國際貨幣基金組織總捐款的比例是多少？

Yes, so we typically talk about this as international and North America. So just broadly, as you know, over time, we switched meaningfully from being heavier in North America to being heavier in international. So now actually, you see that we are almost not quite 2/3 from international IMFs. And obviously, Asia Pacific, with its typical contract format, is going to have a big share of those international IMFs.

是的，所以我們通常把這分成國際和北美兩部分來討論。所以總的來說，如你所知，隨著時間的推移，我們的業務重點從北美轉向了國際市場。所以現在實際上，您可以看到我們距離國際貨幣基金組織還有將近三分之二的距離。顯然，亞太地區憑藉其典型的合約形式，將在國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）中佔據很大份額。

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

My question relates to the North American limited-service segment, I guess, for the second quarter in a row, you posted a RevPAR decline. Can you talk about what you think has been going on there? And then as you think about 2019, how that segment performs? Would you expect it to perform outside or below the lower end of your full year '19 range?

我的問題與北美有限服務酒店業務有關，我想，你們連續第二個季度公佈了每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）下降的業績。你能談談你認為那裡發生了什麼事嗎？那麼，展望 2019 年，該細分市場表現如何呢？您預計它的表現會超出或低於您 2019 年全年預期範圍的下限嗎？

Yes, I think it's a really good question, Joe. Thank you for that. And if you look at the quarterly RevPAR numbers by brand, which are in our press release, I think it's a way of illustrating your question. Take a look at Courtyard, for example, managed Q4 Courtyard RevPAR was minus 1% RevPAR. And the system-wide Courtyard number was minus 0.2%, which we don't give you the numbers here but obviously implies that the franchise portfolio was probably a bit positive. And the average of those 2 things ends up being just a bit negative. What's driving that? What's happening there? There are probably a couple of different factors. One, to the extent there is supply growth in the United States, that 1.9% or so in the industry, it tends to be concentrated either in this segment or the segment below it. Some of that obviously is our supply growth, but our competitors are attempting to grow in upscale and upper mid-scale as well. So you've got a bit more of a supply dynamic there. And depending on the market, that can be significant that it is in the same segment. I think the second thing that's happening there is -- use those Courtyard's numbers as an example. The managed Courtyard portfolio of -- it's a couple hundred hotels and change tend to be our gen 1 Courtyards. And so these were mostly opened in the mid- to late '80s. They are rocksolid in terms of the construction and their performance still in absolute terms extraordinarily well. But increasingly, they're finding themselves competing against the hotels, which could be 1/4 of a century younger or so. And we're doing what we can to work with our partners to make sure that those hotels get the kind of capital they need to have in order to compete well against brand-new product or if in that market, it doesn't make sense to do that, that they get, ultimately, that they leave the system. And so we'll continue to work through that. But I think both those factors are driving that. It varies a little bit by brand. Obviously, Courtyard Residence Inn, we've had the longest and would have some of that dynamic. When you look at some of the newer brands like AC and Aloft and the like, we don't have that factor working its way through the system.

是的，我覺得這確實是個好問題，喬。謝謝。如果您查看我們新聞稿中按品牌劃分的季度每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 數據，我認為這可以說明您的問題。以 Courtyard 為例，其第四季的 RevPAR 為 -1%。而整個萬怡酒店的業績為-0.2%，我們在這裡不提供具體數字，但這顯然意味著特許經營組合可能略有盈利。這兩個因素的平均值略為偏負。是什麼原因導致這種情況？那裡發生了什麼事？可能存在幾種不同的因素。第一，如果美國供應量有所成長，產業內約有 1.9% 的成長，那麼這種成長往往會集中在這個細分市場或它下面的細分市場。其中一部分顯然是我們供應量的成長，但我們的競爭對手也在嘗試在高檔和中高檔市場實現成長。所以那裡的供應動態會更加複雜一些。根據市場情況，它屬於同一細分市場這一點可能意義重大。我認為第二件事是──以萬怡酒店的數據為例。我們管理的 Courtyard 酒店組合——大約有幾百家酒店，大多是我們的第一代 Courtyard 酒店。因此，這些店鋪大多是在 80 年代中後期開業的。它們的結構非常堅固，而且就絕對性能而言，仍然非常出色。但他們越來越發現自己要與那些可能比他們年輕四分之一世紀左右的酒店競爭。我們正在盡一切努力與合作夥伴共同努力，確保這些酒店獲得所需的資金，以便與全新的產品展開有效競爭；或者，如果在那個市場中這樣做沒有意義，那麼最終它們就會退出這個體系。所以我們會繼續努力解決這個問題。但我認為這兩個因素都在推動這現象。不同品牌之間略有差異。顯然，Courtyard Residence Inn是我們經營時間最長的飯店，因此會有一些類似的動態。當你看到像 AC 和 Aloft 等一些較新的品牌時，你會發現這個因素並沒有滲透到整個系統中。

Great. And then Leeny, can you talk about your anticipated recycling plans for this year?

偉大的。那麼，Leeny，你能談談你今年的回收計劃嗎？

Sure. We're certainly hopeful that we're going to have additional asset sales. As you know, we don't actually have any predictions in the model. As a reminder, we've got 14 hotels that we still own. 7 of them are Legacy-Starwood, including the Sheraton Grand Phoenix. They're generally in the Americas, 3 down in CALA (inaudible) North America. And then we've obviously got 7 Legacy-Marriott hotels. So the environment for the transaction -- for transactions for hotels continues to be strong. As we've told you before, as we worked our way through the Starwood assets, there were some that were very straightforward in terms of these simple situations. And then we moved into ones that are -- have more complexities, whether it is on the labor front, whether it is from a ground lease, et cetera, or frankly, being in Rio (inaudible), whether it's economy or actually Mother Nature's events can make for challenging times. So from that perspective, we're hopeful for asset sales this year. Don't have anything in particular to report at this point.

當然。我們當然希望能夠進行更多資產出售。如您所知，我們的模型實際上沒有任何預測。再次提醒大家，我們目前仍擁有 14 間飯店。其中 7 間是 Legacy-Starwood 旗下酒店，包括鳳凰城喜來登大酒店。它們通常位於美洲，在 CALA（聽不清楚）北美地區向下 3 位。此外，我們還有 7 間 Legacy-Marriott 飯店。因此，飯店交易的環境依然強勁。正如我們之前告訴你們的那樣，在我們梳理喜達屋資產的過程中，有些資產在這些簡單情況下處理起來非常直接。然後我們進入了那些情況更複雜的領域，無論是勞動力方面，還是土地租賃方面等等，坦白說，身處裡約熱內盧（聽不清楚），無論是經濟方面還是自然災害，都可能帶來挑戰。因此從這個角度來看，我們對今年的資產出售抱持著希望。目前沒有什麼特別的事情要報告。

Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley of UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

I wanted to ask about credit card fees, which drove some nice upside. Just thinking about what the long-term growth rate is. I guess, your guidance is for about 10% this year. Is that driven more by spend or by new sign-ups? Just thinking about how much that growth rate would be sustainable once you have the rebranded credit card out there for a while.

我想問信用卡手續費的問題，這帶來了一些不錯的收益。我只是在思考長期成長率是多少。我猜，你們今年的預期漲幅約10%。這主要是由消費額驅動的，還是由新用戶註冊量所驅動的？想想看，一旦重新命名的信用卡推出一段時間，這種成長率還能持續多久。

So we will talk more about this at the security analyst conference, so I'm only going to talk a little bit about it today, but we will be talking about that then. Generally, it is a combination of both. Obviously, the credit card spend has to do with what's going on in the economy and general consumer appetite for spending on the cobrand cards. And when you have new cardholders sign up, there's a bit of a ramp-up if you think about it as they get up to having a normal amount of cardholder spend. So a little bit similar to a hotel opening. So it really is a combination of both.

所以我們將在安全分析師大會上詳細討論這個問題，今天我只會簡單談談，但我們到時會討論這個問題。一般來說，是兩者的結合。顯然，信用卡消費與經濟狀況以及消費者對聯名信用卡消費的普遍意願有關。而且，當有新持卡人註冊時，如果你仔細想想，你會發現，從他們達到正常的持卡人消費水準開始，會有一個循序漸進的過程。所以有點像飯店開幕。所以它實際上是兩者的結合。

Okay. And then I have a follow-up question to the pipeline issue, and I know you'll be talking about that more at the Analyst Day, too. But just looking at your pipeline continues to grow but the absolute numbers of new signings, I think, peaked in 2016, it looks like, from what's in your releases. So I guess, just thinking about the acceleration and unit growth in 2019 that you're guiding to, is that just going to be from comping the higher deletions last year? Is that also helped by -- were there maybe some property openings that just didn't make it by December 31 that kind of end up driving a little bit higher in 2019 opening than what you would think but just kind of thinking about what's the -- again, the sort of the longer-term unit growth there?

好的。然後，我還有一個關於管道問題的後續問題，我知道您也會在分析師日上更多地談到這個問題。但從你們的招募管道來看，雖然持續成長，但新簽約的絕對數量似乎在 2016 年達到了頂峰，從你們發布的數據來看是這樣的。所以我想，考慮到您預測的 2019 年加速成長和單位成長，這僅僅是因為去年較高的刪除量造成的嗎？這是否也受到以下因素的影響——或許有些房產未能趕在 12 月 31 日前開業，從而導致 2019 年的開業數量比預期略高？但我們仍需要考慮──再次強調，長期單元成長情況如何？

So a couple of things going on is remember, in 2016, you were looking at the combination of kind of pre- and post-merger signings. So as you remember, we ended up needing to take a number of those deals out of the pipeline as we moved through '17 and '18 to make sure that we had the right numbers of what we really thought were going to be opening hotels. So from that standpoint, it's not necessarily a perfect comparison. But we definitely do see room openings continue to grow as we move into '19 and '20 with the fact that we've got, as you've heard us talk before, about delays in construction occurring rather than actually those hotels falling out of the pipeline. So I think we do feel good about seeing continued accelerated growth of our gross room openings as we move into '19.

所以有兩件事正在發生，記住，在 2016 年，你看到的是合併前和合併後簽約的組合。所以你可能還記得，在 2017 年和 2018 年，我們最終需要從計劃中剔除一些交易，以確保我們掌握了真正計劃開設的酒店數量的正確數據。所以從這個角度來看，這未必是個完美的比較。但隨著我們進入 2019 年和 2020 年，我們確實看到客房開放數量繼續增長，正如你之前聽到我們談到的那樣，這是由於施工延誤造成的，而不是酒店項目本身取消了。因此，我認為我們對2019年客房總數持續加速成長感到滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

So I enjoyed watching all the Bonvoy commercials during the Oscars. Can you just -- can you talk a little bit about the strategy behind that campaign and any success metrics you've seen?

所以，我很喜歡在奧斯卡頒獎典禮期間觀看萬豪旅享家的廣告。您能否談談這項活動背後的策略以及您所看到的任何成功指標？

Yes, that's a good question. I don't know that we've got metrics to give you yet except for eyeballs. And I'm actually less interested in eyeballs than I am in what it does to drive business. Obviously, the name is just out there. I think actually technically, it leaked before we announced it, and you could find some chatter about the Bonvoy name even before the year ended. And we then did announce it, but the sort of public launch, if you will, really coincided with the Oscars last weekend, which is something we've been working to get ready for, for some time. And it's obvious that what's happening here, we've got, most substantively, we are bringing these 2 powerful loyalty programs into one. And no longer will customers have to go through the step of having to transfer points from one program to another in order to redeem in the other program. No longer will they have to think about whether they're meeting their Elite night requirements by getting enough nights concentrated in one program or another. It's now much simpler. It's one number and the breadth of choice for earning and the breadth of choice for redeeming is simple for them to grab. And that's the singularly most powerful piece of what is happening in this space. Now to do that, we've got to make sure that people have a brand handle to call this program by something. And we, for obvious reasons, decided not to just make it Marriott Rewards and we've decided not to just make it SPG, but we wanted to come up with something which sort of set us up to explore something new and a bit more powerful. And Bonvoy is what came out of that. We had a great deal of fun internally and with a few smart external advisers coming up with that name. And one of the funnest parts of our business, whether it's a new name for a brand, for a hotel chain or a new brand for a loyalty program is just getting together and feeling those words and trying to think about how they inspire and connect with folks. And while there will always be some folks who say, "Why did you pick that name?," I think generally, the response so far has been quite positive, albeit I think a big part of that is just we're glad we're finally at one program and we're really looking forward to using them. We will spend a significant amount of money this year. I can't tell you what it is in dollar terms, but compared to certainly what we've done in years past, we'll spend a significant amount of money promoting the program, getting it out there, making sure people know what it is called and know the value that's associated with it. And of course, that is set up and underway, so excited about it.

是的，這是個好問題。除了瀏覽量之外，我不知道我們目前還有什麼指標可以提供給你們。實際上，我更感興趣的是它對業務的推動作用，而不是流量。顯然，這個名字已經存在了。我覺得嚴格來說，在我們正式宣布之前就已經洩漏了，甚至在年底之前你就能找到一些關於 Bonvoy 這個名字的傳聞。之後我們確實宣布了此事，但​​這種公開發布（如果你願意這麼稱呼的話）實際上與上週末的奧斯卡頒獎典禮同時舉行，而我們為此已經準備了一段時間。很明顯，我們現在所做的，最實質性的，就是將這兩個強大的會員忠誠度計劃合併為一個。客戶不再需要將積分從一個計劃轉移到另一個計劃才能在另一個計劃中兌換獎勵。他們再也不用考慮是否透過在某個計畫中集中足夠的晚數來滿足精英學員的住宿晚數要求了。現在簡單多了。只有一個號碼，但他們可以輕鬆掌握賺取和兌換的各種選擇。而這正是這個領域正在發生的事情中最強大的部分。為了實現這一點，我們必須確保人們有一個品牌名稱來稱呼這個項目。出於顯而易見的原因，我們決定不只是做萬豪禮賞，也不只是做SPG，而是想推出一些能夠讓我們探索一些新的、更強大的東西的東西。而萬豪旅享家就是由此誕生的。我們內部以及一些聰明的外部顧問一起，在想出這個名字的過程中獲得了極大的樂趣。而我們業務中最有趣的部分之一，無論是為品牌、連鎖酒店還是忠誠度計劃取一個新名稱，就是大家聚在一起，感受這些詞語，並思考它們如何激勵人們、與人們建立聯繫。雖然總是會有人問：“你們為什麼選擇這個名字？”，但我認為總體而言，到目前為止的反應相當積極，儘管我認為很大一部分原因是我們很高興終於實現了一個統一的程序，並且我們非常期待使用它。今年我們將花費一大筆錢。我無法用美元告訴你具體金額，但與我們過去幾年所做的相比，我們將花費大量資金來推廣該計劃，使其廣為人知，確保人們知道它的名稱以及它所蘊含的價值。當然，這件事已經籌備就緒，正在進行中，我對此感到非常興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Bellisario of Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Michael Bellisario。

Just back to the topic of market share. I think last year, you mentioned loyalty was over 50% of business. And if I heard you correctly, I think you just said just shy of 50% in '18. Could you maybe help us reconcile that difference in what you're seeing with customer behavior and booking patterns?

回到市佔率這個話題。我記得去年您提到過，客戶忠誠度佔業務的 50% 以上。如果我沒聽錯的話，你剛才說的是 2018 年略低於 50%。您能否幫我們解釋一下您觀察到的情況與客戶行為和預訂模式之間的差異？

Yes, we said about 50%. I don't know that I've got exactly the right number in front of me. But the program is doing great, absolutely great in so many respects. By the way, one thing I didn't mention in my earlier remarks, we talked a bit about our loss of share in Q4, the strikes being the most significant reason for that. We're really gratified to see that January, our share was up meaningfully across the combined Marriott and Starwood portfolio. And it's a bit of a caution to all of us that RevPAR index is something that we really ought to look at in a longer-term frame. I think when you look at 2018 as a whole for us, we were up modestly in RevPAR index across both portfolios combined. And we -- if the loyalty program continues to perform the way we anticipate it will perform, we'll see that index number should continue to move and we'll also see that program continues to grow with the system. There are complexities in calculating the percentage of room nights that the program distributes. One of the obvious ones is when you get into a big group house, and we are obviously much more group focused than the industry as a whole, some groups have fairly little penetration in the loyalty space, and that's going to have some impact in those numbers. There are also some technical things about when you have a guest that signs up for a program on their first-night stay, do you count that as a program stay or do you not count it as a program stay? But what we're seeing is we're growing the system -- the loyalty system at, at least the same pace that we're growing our room system, if not a bit more. And as a consequence, we think we'll continue to see, at an apples-to-apples basis, increased contribution from the loyalty program to our hotels.

是的，我們說的是大約 50%。我不知道我面前的數字是否完全正確。但這個項目在很多方面都做得非常出色，絕對出色。順便提一下，我之前發言中沒有提到一件事，我們談到了第四季度市佔率的下降，罷工是造成這現象的最主要原因。我們非常高興地看到，1 月份我們在萬豪和喜達屋旗下所有酒店的份額都有顯著增長。這提醒我們所有人，RevPAR 指數是我們真正應該從長遠角度來看的指標。我認為，從整體來看，我們 2018 年兩大投資組合的 RevPAR 指數都略有成長。如果忠誠度計劃繼續按照我們預期的方式運行，我們將看到該指數繼續上升，我們也將看到該計劃隨著系統的發展而繼續增長。計算該計劃分配的房間夜數百分比存在一定的複雜性。其中一個顯而易見的例子是，當你加入一個大型團體時（我們顯然比整個行業更注重團體），一些團體在忠誠度領域的滲透率相當低，這將對這些數據產生一定影響。此外，還有一些技術方面的問題，例如，當客人入住第一晚就報名參加某個項目時，您是否將其計入項目住宿，還是不計入項目住宿？但我們看到的是，我們的會員忠誠度系統正在以至少與我們客房系統相同的速度發展，甚至可能更快一些。因此，我們認為，在同等條件下，忠誠度計劃對我們酒店的貢獻將繼續增加。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛集團的史蒂芬‧格林布林。

Arne, you had mentioned previously some interesting stats about a much more significant number of loyalty point redemptions through a smaller portion of higher-end properties. I guess, how has that played into how you think about driving the loyalty program and positioning the portfolio in the future? And would you see any -- see or sense any kind of capacity constraints if you don't grow in those higher-end properties?

Arne，你之前提到過一些有趣的統計數據，即透過較小比例的高端酒店兌換的忠誠度積分數量要多得多。我想，這會對您未來如何推動會員忠誠度計畫和產品組合定位產生怎樣的影響？如果你不在高端地產領域發展，你會感覺到任何產能限制嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think you can almost think of this as a bit of a barbell. You think of this almost as a bit of a barbell. The program is big, obviously, with 125 million members, and think about at 50% of all room nights, how many room nights that is being delivered by members of our loyalty program across the system of over 1.3 million hotel rooms. It is a big program, and not every one of those members is identical. They are, however, all advantaged by greater opportunities through a bigger portfolio to earn points, and they are all advantaged by a bigger portfolio from which to select their redemption options. And for the prototypical road warriors who are collecting significant amounts of points, who may be staying in higher-end hotels where they collect those points, the luxury resort lifestyle portfolio is hugely attractive. But for many, the ability to stay free in a Courtyard hotel in a Midwestern market, which is near family where they're going to spend a week in the summer or where they're going for the holidays and to be able to do that for free is also a huge and really important benefit. And so we saw in 2018 a significant increase, I think, 8% increase in total redemption behavior across both portfolios. And there were meaningful growth rates at both the high end and, if you will, in the select-service hotels as well. Because I think you see that play out. Generally, I think again, the breadth of choice on both earning points and redeeming points is a huge advantage, and we want to make sure we continue to drive that breadth of choice.

是的。我的意思是，你可以把它想像成槓鈴。你可以把它想像成槓鈴。該計劃規模龐大，擁有 1.25 億會員，想想看，在我們超過 130 萬間酒店客房的系統中，50% 的客房夜數是由我們的忠誠度計劃會員提供的。這是一個龐大的項目，而且每個成員都不盡相同。然而，透過更大的投資組合，他們都獲得了更多賺取積分的機會，並且透過更大的投資組合，他們都獲得了更多選擇兌換選項的機會。對於那些經常出差旅行、累積大量積分，並且可能入住高檔飯店累積積分的典型「空中飛人」來說，豪華度假村生活風格系列產品極具吸引力。但對許多人來說，能夠在靠近家人、位於中西部地區的萬怡酒店免費住宿，無論是夏天要去那裡待一周，還是要去那裡過節，這都是一項巨大的、非常重要的好處。因此，我們在 2018 年看到了顯著成長，我認為，兩個投資組合的總贖回行為成長了 8%。高端酒店和精選服務酒店都實現了顯著的成長。因為我覺得你會看到這種情況發生。總的來說，我認為，無論是賺取積分還是兌換積分，選擇範圍的廣度都是一個巨大的優勢，我們希望確保繼續擴大這種選擇範圍。

Great. And one quick follow-up. Are you seeing any difference in sign-ups in the U.S. versus overseas or seeing any kind of change in response to the new program by customer segments?

偉大的。還有一個後續問題。您是否發現美國和海外的註冊人數有任何差異？或者，您發現不同客戶群對新計畫的反應有任何變化？

No. I mean, the -- Laura's reminding me that Analyst Day, we will spend a good chunk of time talking about this.

不。我的意思是，勞拉提醒我，在分析師日那天，我們會花很多時間討論這個問題。

Otherwise, no one's going to have to come.

否則，就沒人需要來了。

And we'll have the loyalty team there to give you a bit more granular detail. The -- I don't think so. The Asia, of course, membership is growing quickly as our distribution and prominence in markets like China and India grow substantially. And our partnership with Alibaba is one that we're incredibly grateful for. And we've got strong synergies between their best customers and our best customers and we're doing things together, which are good to drive sign-ups. We are, at the same time, while we're doing about 1.5 million new members a month, we are very much focused on signing up people who think will deliver business to us. It's not simply about how many people can you sign up, because if you're signing up folks who are really not likely to be customers in a way that's even measurable, it's probably not worth a lot of focus in terms of signing them up. So we're running through both those things. I think generally, we were grateful that the pace has actually continued pretty healthy. Obviously, the quarter was noisy with the strikes and with the cyber event, and to continue the growth through that is something we're pretty grateful for.

我們也會安排客戶忠誠度團隊為您提供更詳細的資訊。——我不這麼認為。當然，隨著我們在中國和印度等市場的分銷和知名度大幅增長，亞洲的會員數量也在迅速增長。我們與阿里巴巴的合作關係令我們無比感激。他們的最佳客戶和我們的最佳客戶之間有著很強的協同效應，我們正在共同做一些事情，這有利於推動註冊量。同時，雖然我們每月新增會員約 150 萬，但我們非常注重招募那些認為能為我們帶來業務的人。這不僅僅是你能招到多少人的問題，因為如果你招到的人不太可能成為客戶，甚至無法衡量，那麼在招攬他們方面投入太多精力可能並不值得。所以我們正在同時處理這兩件事。總的來說，我們很欣慰地看到這一趨勢一直保持著相當健康的態勢。顯然，由於罷工和網路攻擊事件，本季市場動盪不安，我們能夠克服這些困難繼續保持成長，對此我們感到非常欣慰。

Your next question comes from the line of David Beckel of Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛貝克爾的理論。

Had a -- just wanted to follow up about on your previous comment about how you're feeling more optimistic. You gave some good color there. But more specifically, I guess, from your conversations with corporate partners or corporate travel planners, do you get the sense that there is sort of like a degree of pent-up demand that's just waiting to be unleashed once some of the uncertainty in the marketplace starts to clear up?

我只是想跟進一下你之前關於你感覺更加樂觀的評論。你為那裡增添了一些不錯的色彩。但更具體地說，我想，從你與企業合作夥伴或企業差旅規劃人員的談話中，你是否感覺到市場中存在某種程度的壓抑需求，一旦市場上的某些不確定性開始消除，這種需求就會被釋放出來？

The -- remember, I said we're a bit more optimistic than we were a quarter ago, not necessarily that there's a pent-up demand that's about to be released out of the starting gate that dramatically changes things. I do think, and this is, I think, it's probably obvious to all of you. As we approach the end of the year, partly because of trade conversations, partly because of the way the market itself was performing, I think you could feel sort of rising anxiety or maybe even a little bit of pessimism. We've now seen in January and February the market strengthen. We've seen backing away a little bit from some of the trade dynamic. I think we've seen our corporate clients particularly get a little less fearful, a little less anxious. And therefore, in comparison to where we were before, it feels again a bit better. Don't overexaggerate this, but it feels a bit better than it did a quarter ago. And that's what's built into our model. It's -- it is not a wholly different stronger demand environment that we're anticipating but one that we think is steady because we hear from our customers they intend to be on the road and doing the business that they need to do. And we're, of course, happy to have them come and stay with us when they travel.

記住，我說過我們比一個季度前更樂觀一些，但這並不一定意味著存在即將爆發的積壓需求，從而徹底改變現狀。我確實認為，而且我想，這對你們所有人來說可能都很明顯。隨著年底臨近，部分原因是貿易談判，部分原因是市場本身的表現，我認為你可能會感受到一種日益加劇的焦慮，甚至可能有些悲觀。我們已經看到，1月和2月市場走強。我們看到，貿易動態方面出現了一些回落的跡象。我認為我們已經看到，尤其是我們的企業客戶，他們的恐懼和焦慮情緒有所減輕。因此，與之前的情況相比，現在感覺又好了一些。不要誇大其詞，但感覺比三個月前好。這就是我們模型內建的功能。我們預期的並不是一個完全不同的、更強勁的需求環境，而是我們認為一個穩定的環境，因為我們從客戶那裡了解到，他們打算繼續上路，開展他們需要開展的業務。當然，我們非常歡迎他們旅行時來我們家住。

Great, I appreciate that extra color. And my follow-up, just wanted to get a sense for your ongoing negotiation with Expedia. Is there anything you can or want to comment on? Or more specifically, I guess, any deal points beyond just the commission rate structure that have prolonged this negotiation?

太好了，我很喜歡這額外的色彩。另外，我想了解您與 Expedia 的談判進度。有什麼可以或想發表的意見嗎？或者更具體地說，除了佣金率結構之外，還有哪些因素導致談判延期？

No, nothing really to say. The teams continue to work and, as far as I can tell, make good progress. So we'll bring you up to speed when the time is right.

不，沒什麼好說的。各團隊仍在繼續工作，據我所知，進展順利。時機成熟時，我們會及時向您報告情況。

Your next question comes from the line of Wes Golladay of RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的韋斯‧戈拉迪。

Just have a quick one on the marketing spend for Bonvoy. Will this be a big increase for the owners? Or will the new credit card agreement fund the majority of the increase?

簡單問問萬豪旅享家的行銷支出狀況。這對業主來說會是一筆很大的成長嗎？或者，新的信用卡協議能否為大部分成長提供資金？

No and yes. I mean, it's -- that second question is a little bit of an oversimplification, but the -- as we mentioned, the charge-out rate for the owners, which is where they contribute to this program, has declined by 50 to 60 basis points, on average, for brands. And that's about 10% roughly, a little bit more than 10% actually of what the total cost of the program was to them. And those dollars plus dollars coming from credit card companies and timeshare companies and others who are partners of the program support the cost of the program, so we end up with the resources to market this new program and promote this new program and actually charge the owners less at the same time.

不，也是。我的意思是，第二個問題有點過於簡單化了，但是——正如我們所提到的，品牌所有者的出資率（也就是他們為該計劃做出的貢獻）平均下降了 50 到 60 個基點。這大約佔該項目總成本的 10%，實際上略高於 10%。這些資金，加上信用卡公司、分時度假公司以及其他合作夥伴的資金，共同支撐著該項目的成本，因此我們最終有資源來推廣和宣傳這個新項目，同時還能減少業主的費用。

And we also got integration synergies from putting 2 loyalty programs together. So you've got, in addition to getting more funds from the credit cards, you've also got a more streamlined organizational structure there. And you put that together and as you remember, we were able to increase the benefits for the consumers, for the owners and also for the shareholders.

我們也透過將兩個會員忠誠度計劃整合在一起，獲得了協同效應。所以，除了能從信用卡獲得更多資金外，你還能擁有一個更精簡的組織架構。把這些因素綜合起來，正如你所記得的，我們能夠增加消費者、所有者和股東的利益。

Okay. And then one more quick one. For the Sheraton Grand Phoenix, when will that be completed?

好的。然後，再來一個快速的。鳳凰城喜來登大酒店何時完工？

It's underway. I think it's hard to predict exactly when it is. But like most normal PIPs, you could expect that it could take the balance of this year and into next year.

已經開始了。我認為很難準確預測它何時發生。但與大多數正常的績效改進計劃一樣，預計該計劃可能會持續到今年年底甚至明年。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Kopelman of Cowen and Company.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Kevin Kopelman。

Just had a follow-up on OTAs. They were stable in the mix in 2018 after increasing in prior years. Given this dynamic has changed, how do you see OTAs trending in the mix now for 2019 going forward?

剛剛跟進了一下OTA的狀況。2018年，它們在混合物中的比例保持穩定，此前幾年則有所增加。鑑於這種動態已經改變，您認為OTA在2019年及以後的發展趨勢如何？

Well, we'll also talk about that at the security analyst conference, so we won't -- no need to get too far ahead of ourselves. I think again, as you've heard us talk about all the work that we're doing on the loyalty program through Bonvoy, which brings people through us to direct channels as well as the OTA-yielding work that we've been doing, I think it's the first time in several years where that percentage has actually not increased by at least 1 full point. So from that perspective, I think it's indicative of the relationship with our customers that we have. And we'll obviously look forward to continuing to do as much as we can to have our consumers book directly with us.

嗯，我們也會在安全分析師大會上討論這個問題，所以我們就不會——沒必要操之過急。我認為，正如你們所聽到的，我們正在透過 Bonvoy 開展忠誠度計劃，將人們引流到我們的直接管道，以及我們一直在進行的 OTA 收益工作，我認為這是幾年來第一次這個百分比實際上沒有增長至少 1 個百分點。所以從這個角度來看，我認為這反映了我們與客戶之間的關係。我們當然會繼續盡我們所能，讓我們的消費者直接向我們預訂。

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research Company.

你的下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

Hearing some mixed things from owners out there. Some would point to integration issues related to this deal. You have others call out margin benefits from reduced travel agency commissions. So when you roll it all up, I mean, what are you hearing from owners today? And how has that feedback evolved in the last 12 months? And I guess, what are you hoping to hear a year from now as they look back on this deal?

聽到一些車主的評價褒貶不一。有人會指出這筆交易有整合的問題。其他人也指出，降低旅行社佣金可以帶來利潤成長。所以，當你把所有情況匯總起來，我的意思是，你現在從業主那裡聽到了什麼？在過去 12 個月裡，這些回饋發生了什麼樣的變化？那麼，一年後當他們回顧這筆交易時，你希望聽到什麼評價呢？

That's a really good question. It's obviously a really important area of focus for us. And as you all know, in many respects, our business model has 2 sets of customers, the customers we think of first obviously are the folks who check into our hotels or who hold their meetings there or who come and take advantage of our food and beverage facilities. But the other customer is very much our owners. They are folks who are investing capital in our system or have invested substantial amounts of capital in our system. And they are keenly interested in how the top line and bottom line performance of their hotels is driven by our behavior. And obviously, one of those recent events is how does the bringing together of Marriott and Starwood impact that. I think generally, our community would say that we have steadily been delivering cost synergies to them. We've talked this morning about the cost of the rewards program and how that's been improved. But there are other areas in procurement and systems and shared services and other things we're doing that, some of which we could do right out of the gate and some of which take a little bit longer, but they have been steadily implemented since we closed the transaction in the fall of 2016. They also, however, want to make sure we're delivering top line growth because if we can do both things, it is a huge advantage for them and ultimately for us because we're that much more attractive to compete for their capital in the years ahead. And I think to be fair, we have -- and again, this is another thing that we will look at when we look at the RevPAR performance of the Legacy-Starwood hotels when we're together in March. And there's some news there already, but the biggest news is really driven by the final merging of these loyalty programs now into Marriott Bonvoy. That, we think, is the tool that is going to drive most powerful results with our frequent travelers. And we want to be able to prove to them that we are driving the top line through that vehicle. And again, if we can do both those things, it's going to be a home run.

這真是個好問題。這顯然是我們非常重視的領域。如大家所知，在許多方面，我們的商業模式有兩類客戶，我們首先想到的客戶顯然​​是入住我們酒店、在我們酒店舉行會議或來我們酒店享用餐飲設施的客人。但另一位顧客正是我們的老闆。他們是指那些正在向我們的系統投入資金或已經向我們的系統投入了大量資金的人。他們非常關注我們的行為如何影響旗下飯店的營收和利潤。顯然，最近發生的事件之一是萬豪酒店集團和喜達屋酒店集團的合併將如何影響這種情況。我認為總的來說，我們的社區會認為我們一直在穩步地為他們帶來成本協同效應。今天早上我們討論了獎勵計劃的成本以及如何改善這方面的措施。但是，在採購、系統、共享服務以及其他方面，我們正在做一些事情，其中​​一些我們可以立即完成，而另一些則需要更長的時間，但自從我們在 2016 年秋季完成交易以來，這些工作一直在穩步推進。不過，他們也希望確保我們實現營收成長，因為如果我們能做到這兩點，對他們來說將是一個巨大的優勢，最終對我們也是如此，因為在未來幾年裡，我們將更有吸引力去爭取他們的資金。公平地說，我認為我們已經——而且，這也是我們在三月份聚在一起查看 Legacy-Starwood 酒店的 RevPAR 表現時要考慮的另一個方面。雖然已經有一些消息傳出，但最大的新聞還是這些忠誠度計劃最終合併為萬豪旅享家。我們認為，對於經常出差的旅客來說，這將是最有效的工具。我們希望能夠向他們證明，我們正是透過這款車推動了營收成長。再說一遍，如果我們能做到這兩點，那就一定會大獲成功。

Great. And then just a quick follow-up on the fee guide. If I just do a simple linear addition of the 5.5 units on the 1% to 3% RevPAR guide, and then when you consider that the credit card bump sounds like it should more than offset FX, what is -- is there conservatism in the 5% to 7%? Or is there anything going on with non-hotel fees that offsets that, that addition? Or is it just where we are in the cycle and where incentive fees grows? Just trying to better understand the 5% to 7%.

偉大的。最後，再簡單跟進一下費用指南。如果我只是簡單地將 1% 到 3% 的 RevPAR 指南中的 5.5 個單位進行線性加法，然後考慮到信用卡加價聽起來應該足以抵消外匯影響，那麼 5% 到 7% 的 RevPAR 是否過於保守？或者說，除了飯店費用之外，還有什麼其他費用可以抵銷這部分額外支出嗎？或者，這只是我們所處的週期階段以及激勵費用成長的階段？只是想更好地理解這 5% 到 7% 之間的差異。

Sure. So a couple of things. One, I would definitely say I would look at IMFs. We've talked about IMFs as being low single digits in 2019, and that is a function of, as you've mentioned, part of it's FX but part of it is the reality that we've got little bit lower growth expectations in Asia Pacific than we had a year ago and when you think about RevPAR year-over-year between those 2 years in that continent. And then also, you've got the reality of the strikes. And that is as you move into January, while we're seeing recovery, you still had a bunch of wholesale bookings that when they were looking at booking into Q1, it was difficult to know. And so we're going to pay a little bit of a price in 2019 from that as well. So that's part of it. Then you've also got the impact of terminated hotels. If you remember, we actually ended up with a little bit below 5% growth rate in '18, and much of that then falls into '19 in terms of the growth. And then last but not least, we've talked about the reality that with higher labor costs, that's going to have a bit of an impact on your margins for your IMF-earning hotels.

當然。有兩件事。首先，我肯定會關注國際貨幣基金組織。我們之前討論過 2019 年國際貨幣基金組織的增長率將維持在個位數，正如您所提到的，部分原因是外匯波動，但部分原因是亞太地區的增長預期比一年前略低，而且考慮到該地區這兩年每間可供出租客房收入的同比變化，情況就更加明顯了。此外，還有罷工的現實。進入一月份，雖然我們看到了復甦的跡象，但仍然有很多批發訂單，當他們考慮將訂單安排到第一季時，很難知道結果。所以，2019年我們也要為此付出一些代價。這是其中的一部分。此外，還有飯店倒閉帶來的影響。如果你還記得的話，我們2018年的成長率其實略低於5%，而其中大部分成長都發生在2019年。最後，我們也討論了這樣一個現實：勞動成本上升，將會對你那些獲得國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF) 資助的飯店的利潤率產生一定影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Harry Curtis of Instinet.

你的下一個問題來自 Instinet 樂團的 Harry Curtis。

I'm sorry. I've got one more to add to the last point and that is that residential branding fees, we do expect they're a little bit lumpy, and we actually do expect them to go down a bit next year, which is just a function of the timing of the sales of the units. Sorry, I interrupted.

對不起。我還有一點要補充一點，那就是住宅品牌推廣費，我們預計它們會有些波動，而且我們預計明年它們會略有下降，這只是取決於單元房銷售的時間安排。抱歉，我打斷了。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Very good, okay. Just a quick question on the restoration of the Sheraton brand. It would appear that you have roughly 90,000 Sheraton rooms. And what will that number probably contract to once you're done purging the system and how long will that take? And then the second question is looking ahead, what's the brand -- is the brand going to be an engine for growth? And how will you change the image? And what segment will it fit in as well as is it going to be more of an international brand, a U.S. brand or both?

很好，好的。關於喜來登品牌的復興，我有個小問題。看來你們大約有9萬間喜來登飯店客房。系統清理完畢後，這個數字可能會減少到多少？清理過程需要多長時間？第二個問題是展望未來，品牌是什麼－品牌能否成為成長的引擎？你會如何改變形象？它又將定位在哪個細分市場？它會成為國際品牌、美國品牌，還是兩者兼具？

All right, all good questions, Harry. The -- we are making great progress with this. I don't have it by rooms but I have it by hotels. I don't -- I would guess that these -- there's no reason these hotel sizes shouldn't be about average. But -- so they should be translatable into rooms. We have done -- basically, we figure about 150 of the Sheratons, we have either fixed or the fixes are underway in terms of renovation behavior. And fixed includes getting rid of about 25 Sheraton hotels. So of the 150, about 25 left and about 125 are renovation is underway or about to be underway very quickly. When we look at sort of the portfolio, we've got -- I'm looking at a -- let's see, what is this, I'm trying to do the math in my head here, it's about 450 hotels in total. A little less than 200 in the U.S. or North America and about 250 internationally. About 75% of the rooms product and public space product when looked at separately are on track to meet standards. Now that includes hotels where renovation is not underway yet but where renovation has been committed to or where the work has already been done. So that -- it's leaving about 1/4 of the portfolio, which we're still working on out of 450 hotels, that's 100-ish or 110, something like that. And so we're -- we've got these numbers on the run, and I think we're going to find that when we're looking back at this a few years from now, we'll see that there was massive capital that went into this and the average product quality of the Sheraton portfolio is meaningfully better than when we took it on. We are continuing to grow the brand even as we speak. Your question hints at this a little bit. It is probably stronger in Asia, and therefore, the pipeline's a bit stronger in Asia than it is in the rest of the world. But as we strengthen the product -- average product quality and guest service scores, which is already happening too in a material way, we'll see that the demand from our development partners for Sheraton increases as well. So we're feeling really quite good about it.

好的，哈利，你問的都是好問題。我們在這方面取得了巨大進展。我沒有按房間統計，但我有按酒店統計。我不這麼認為——我猜這些——沒有理由說這些酒店的規模不屬於平均水平。但是——所以它們應該可以轉換成房間。我們已經完成了——基本上，我們估計大約有 150 家喜來登酒店，我們已經解決了翻新行為方面的問題，或者正在著手解決這些問題。整改措施包括關閉約 25 家喜來登酒店。因此，在150套住房中，大約還剩下25套，大約有125套正在進行或即將很快進行翻新。當我們查看投資組合時，我們看到——我正在看——讓我想想，這是什麼，我正在心裡計算，總共大約有 450 家酒店。美國或北美地區略少於 200 人，國際上約有 250 人。分別來看，客房產品和公共空間產品中約有 75% 符合標準。現在，這包括那些尚未開始翻新但已承諾翻新或已完成翻新的酒店。所以——我們仍在努力處理我們450家酒店組合中的大約四分之一，也就是100家或110家左右。所以，我們現在掌握了這些數據，我認為幾年後當我們回顧這件事時，我們會發現，當時投入了大量資金，而且喜來登酒店組合的平均產品質量比我們接手時有了顯著提高。就在此刻，我們仍在繼續發展壯大這個品牌。你的問題已經略微暗示了這一點。亞洲的這種趨勢可能更為明顯，因此，亞洲的管道建設比世界其他地區要完善一些。但隨著我們不斷提升產品——平均產品品質和客戶服務評分（這方面也已經取得了實質進展），我們將看到我們的開發合作夥伴對喜來登的需求也會增加。所以我們對此感覺相當不錯。

So following up on that, the Sheraton brand identification is very high with customers. So do you go on a campaign to reintroduce this? Are you gaining traction with developers?

因此，可以推斷，喜來登品牌在顧客中的認同度非常高。所以你會發起一場運動來重新引入這項政策嗎？你是否正在吸引開發者的注意？

Well, the answer to both of those questions, I think, is yes. I mean, I think in different markets of the world, the need to prove progress is a little bit more important in terms of the development pipeline. But I think as customers see and experience improved quality in the portfolio, and as we get to a place where we've got more of it actually delivered, we will ramp up the sort of PR relaunch of the brand. A little bit dangerous to do it simply based on committed renovations as opposed to renovations that are completed and can't be seen by the customers.

嗯，我認為這兩個問題的答案都是肯定的。我的意思是，我認為在世界不同的市場中，在產品開發過程中，證明進展的重要性可能略高一些。但我認為，隨著客戶看到並體驗到產品組合品質的提升，以及隨著我們實際交付的產品越來越多，我們將加強進行品牌公關重塑。僅根據已承諾的裝修工程來判斷裝修效果，而不是根據已經完成且客戶看不到的裝修工程來判斷，這有點危險。

Yes, and we'll talk more about it at the analyst meeting undoubtedly.

是的，我們肯定會在分析師會議上詳細討論這個問題。

Your final question today will come from the line of David Katz of Jefferies.

今天最後一個問題將來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·卡茨。

What we've learned over the years is that every cycle is different. What we have seen in other cycles, and it doesn't necessarily play out this way, is a sort of a plethora of brands entering the system or entering the mix. You obviously have a lot and we've seen others launching quite a few brands. What are you seeing? Or are there any concerns that you would help us alleviate or highlight for us in terms of just the population of brands, which seems to be growing quite quickly?

多年來我們了解到，每個週期都是不同的。在其他週期中，我們看到大量品牌湧入市場或加入競爭，但這並不一定每次都會如此。顯然你擁有很多資源，我們也看到其他人推出了不少品牌。你看到了什麼？或者，就品牌數量而言，您是否有任何擔憂需要我們幫助緩解或重點指出（因為品牌數量似乎增長得相當快）？

Yes, it's a good question. The -- I think I would focus -- I'd encourage you to focus maybe less on the number of brands being launched than on the supply growth itself. And we have talked about this before. But I don't know of a turndown in the lodging business, which has been caused by supply. They may be exacerbated, to some extent, by supply and a bit depending on what that supply dynamic is. But in every instance in my 22 years, it has been driven by a demand -- a weakening in the demand side of the equation. And that is really about GDP broadly. You can look at other measures, which correlate with GDP but it really is about how is the economy doing. And that's the principle thing, I think, I would be focused on to the extent you think about the cycle here. The number of brands is less important than supply growth. Supply growth, we've talked about before, is at average levels. We've not seen the kind of peak supply that we did in the last 2 growth cycles, which maybe means that to the extent we get a weakening demand environment, it might not be as bad. I suppose it's what we've seen before. But again, I would still be focused on demand. The only last thing I'd say about brands as opposed to supply in terms of rooms or hotels, and of course, you'll recognize that we've got a bias in here being an owner of 30 brands that are competing in this space. But the brand that is most important is Marriott Bonvoy because that's what binds our relationship with our customers across the entire portfolio. Now each brand hopefully says something. It's got a product definition, it's got a service definition and it schools expectations of our customers in a way that obviously, hopefully, we meet but lets them sort of understand something about what they're booking within our portfolio. But it's that Bonvoy umbrella branding, which is the most important thing. And I actually think if we had 35 as opposed to 30, it wouldn't be a meaningfully different story. By the way, we're not announcing the launch of 5 new brands this morning or even inviting you to think that, that's coming down the pike. But again, the portfolio branding is clearly the most important thing, and the more we've got choice within that or from a geographic price point and design sensibility, the better off we are.

是的，這是個好問題。我認為，與其關注新推出的品牌數量，不如關注供應成長本身。我們之前也討論過這個問題。但我不知道住宿業是否出現了下滑，而住宿業下滑是由供應不足造成的。供應可能會在一定程度上加劇這些問題，具體情況取決於供應動態。但在我從事這項工作的 22 年裡，每一次都是由需求驅動的——是需求方的疲軟。這其實與GDP的整體情況有關。你可以看看其他與GDP相關的指標，但關鍵在於經濟的運作狀況。我認為，這才是最重要的，也是我思考這個循環時該關注的重點。品牌數量不如供應成長重要。我們之前已經討論過，供應成長處於平均水準。我們沒有看到像過去兩個成長週期那樣的供應高峰，這或許意味著，即使需求環境疲軟，情況也不會那麼糟。我想這跟我們以前見過的情況差不多。但是，我仍然會把重點放在需求上。最後我想說的是，關於品牌與客房或酒店供應之間的關係，當然，您也會意識到，作為擁有 30 個在這個領域競爭的品牌的擁有者，我們在這裡存在偏見。但最重要的品牌是萬豪旅享家，因為它將我們與所有飯店的客戶連結起來。現在，每個品牌都應該有所表達。它有產品定義，有服​​務定義，並且以一種顯然我們希望能夠滿足客戶期望的方式，引導客戶了解他們在我們的產品組合中預訂的內容。但最重要的是 Bonvoy 的品牌形象。其實我覺得，就算我們有 35 個而不是 30 個，結果也不會有太大的不同。順便說一句，我們今天早上並沒有宣布推出 5 個新品牌，甚至沒有邀請你們這樣認為，這件事即將發生。但話說回來，產品組合品牌顯然是最重要的，我們在品牌選擇方面，或者從地理位置、價格和設計理念方面選擇越多，我們就越有利。

Thank you, everybody, for your time and interest this morning. We appreciate very much your hanging with us. And of course, we look forward to welcoming you to our hotels as you travel. See you in March.

感謝各位今天上午抽出時間並關注此事。非常感謝你和我們一起度過這段時光。當然，我們也期待您在旅途中入住我們的飯店。三月見。

Thank you for participating in the Marriott International Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

感謝您參加萬豪國際集團2018年第四季財報電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路了，祝您有美好的一天。