萬豪國際 (MAR) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Marriott International's first-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the call over to Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer.

歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2016年第一季財報電話會議。（操作說明）現在我謹將電話交給總裁兼執行長阿恩·索倫森。

Good morning, everyone, welcome to our first-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director Investor Relations.

各位早安，歡迎參加我們2016年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；高級副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Laura Paugh；以及高級總監兼投資者關係主管 Betsy Dahm。

First let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

首先我要提醒大家，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night along with our comments today are effective only today, April 28, 2016, and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks on our website at www.marriott.com/investor.

我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們今天發表的評論僅在今天（2016 年 4 月 28 日）有效，不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。您可以造訪我們的網站 www.marriott.com/investor，查看我們在聲明中提到的非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。

So, let's talk about the first quarter. In North America comparable systemwide RevPAR rose 2.4% in the quarter. In January North America systemwide RevPAR rose 3.1% despite the severe East Coast snowstorm. In February RevPAR rose 3.4%.

那麼，我們來談談第一季吧。北美地區同業系統平均每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在本季成長了2.4%。儘管東海岸遭遇嚴重暴風雪，但1月北美地區整體RevPAR仍增加了3.1%。2月每間可供出租客房收入增加了3.4%。

But March RevPAR increased only 1% as group meeting planners avoided the week before and the week after Easter. All in all we estimate the shifting Easter holiday period reduced our systemwide RevPAR growth by about 1 percentage point for the quarter.

但3月的每間可供出租客房收入僅增加了1%，因為團體會議策劃者避開了復活節前後一週。總的來說，我們估計復活節假期時間的改變使我們本季的系統整體RevPAR成長率下降了約1個百分點。

A natural first question would be why, with 2.4% North America systemwide RevPAR growth in Q1, do we think 3% to 5% growth is still the right range for the year. Strong group business on the books gives us confidence in the remainder of the year including higher transient room rates that are likely to come with stronger group compression in the second and third quarters.

首先很自然的問題是，在第一季北美系統整體RevPAR成長2.4%的情況下，為什麼我們認為3%到5%的成長仍然是全年的合適範圍。強勁的團體業務讓我們對今年剩餘時間充滿信心，包括第二季和第三季團體業務壓縮幅度加大時可能出現的更高的散客房價。

In fact April RevPAR through the 23rd is up 5.2%. Group booking pace for our full-service hotels in North America is up 7% for the rest of the year. First-quarter RevPAR growth was strongest in Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Francisco and the California desert, while RevPAR in Chicago and Philadelphia declined due to unfavorable citywide calendars.

事實上，截至4月23日，4月份的每間可供出租客房收入增加了5.2%。今年剩餘時間裡，我們在北美地區提供全方位服務的飯店的團體預訂速度將增加 7%。第一季每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長最強勁的地區是亞特蘭大、洛杉磯、舊金山和加州沙漠地區，而芝加哥和費城的 RevPAR 則因城市整體日曆不利而下降。

Systemwide RevPAR at our limited service hotels rose 2% in the quarter constrained by a combination of weak demand from the oil and gas industries and new upscale supply. RevPAR at Ritz-Carlton increased more than 6% as recently completed renovations pushed both occupancy and room rates higher and the earlier Easter increased leisure business, particularly in Lake Tahoe and Bachelor Gulch where the snow was deep and the skiing was great.

受石油和天然氣行業需求疲軟以及新增高檔酒店供應等因素的限制，本季度我們有限服務型酒店的系統平均每間可供出租客房收入增長了 2%。麗思卡爾頓酒店的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長超過 6%，這得益於近期完成的翻新工程提高了入住率和房價，以及復活節提前到來帶動了休閒旅遊業務的增長，尤其是在太浩湖和巴切勒峽谷，那裡積雪很深，滑雪條件非常好。

STR expects overall US supply growth of 1.7% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017. Interestingly in the last six months financing for new hotel construction in the US has become more conservative. We understand that leverage levels on new construction loans have declined from 70% to 75% a year ago to 60% to 65% today.

STR預計2016年美國整體供應成長1.7%，2017年成長1.9%。有趣的是，在過去的六個月裡，美國新建飯店的融資方式變得更加保守。我們了解到，新建房屋貸款的槓桿率已從一年前的 70% 至 75% 下降到目前的 60% 至 65%。

Loan pricing and recourse levels have increased. In certain markets construction costs are also higher, particularly labor. While we aren't likely to see a material change in supply growth in the near-term, longer-term we believe these conditions should discourage marginal new projects from going forward and could delay others.

貸款定價和追索權水準有所提高。在某些市場，建築成本也較高，尤其是勞動成本。雖然短期內供應成長不太可能出現實質變化，但從長遠來看，我們認為這些情況應該會阻礙一些較小的新專案推進，並可能延緩其他專案的進展。

While new industry construction could moderate in the US over time, we believe our brand conversions will likely accelerate. Our Autograph brand reached 100 hotels worldwide in just six years largely due to conversions. With 19 brands today and soon to be 30 brands, we now have even more opportunities for meaningful unit growth through conversions.

雖然美國的新工業建設可能會隨著時間的推移而放緩，但我們相信我們的品牌轉換率可能會加快。我們的 Autograph 品牌在短短六年內就在全球擁有了 100 家酒店，這主要歸功於酒店的改造升級。目前我們擁有 19 個品牌，很快就會達到 30 個品牌，這意味著我們將有更多機會透過轉換實現有意義的銷售成長。

Elsewhere in the world in the Caribbean and Latin America the good news was Mexico where RevPAR rose nearly 30% in the first quarter. This expanding economy offers great opportunities for limited service development along with very strong RevPAR growth. Our warm weather resorts benefited from the shift in Easter in the first quarter, but concerns about the Zika virus triggered group cancellations in some markets in the region.

世界其他地區，如加勒比海和拉丁美洲，好消息是墨西哥，第一季每間可供出租客房收入增加了近 30%。經濟的擴張為有限服務業的發展提供了巨大的機遇，同時實現了非常強勁的每間可供出租客房收入成長。第一季度，由於復活節假期時間調整，我們的溫暖氣候度假勝地受益，但對寨卡病毒的擔憂導致該地區一些市場的團體取消了預訂。

In Europe the economy grew modestly in the first quarter and systemwide RevPAR rose nearly 3%. The tragic events in Paris, Brussels and Istanbul depressed occupancy rates in those markets with some spillover concern impacting RevPAR results in London as well.

歐洲經濟在第一季溫和成長，系統整體每間可供出租客房收入成長近 3%。巴黎、布魯塞爾和伊斯坦堡的悲劇事件導致這些市場的入住率下降，一些外溢效應也影響了倫敦的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)。

Elsewhere in the UK RevPAR remained very strong. In Spain the economy is rapidly recovering and our hotels benefited from strong demand from UK and US travelers. Instability in the Middle East and North Africa further enhanced Spain's appeal as a vacation destination. Demand for our German hotels remained strong in the quarter with favorable fare business in Cologne and Berlin.

英國其他地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）依然非常強勁。西班牙經濟正在迅速復甦，我們的酒店也受益於英國和美國遊客的強勁需求。中東和北非的不穩定局勢進一步提升了西班牙作為度假勝地的吸引力。本季，我們對德國飯店的需求依然強勁，科隆和柏林的飯店房價業務表現良好。

In the Middle East geopolitical unrest and low oil prices depressed oil results in much of the region. While UAE occupancies remained over 80%, room rates were lower with new supply in the market.

中東地區的地緣政治動盪和低油價導致該地區大部分地區的石油產量下降。儘管阿聯酋的酒店入住率保持在 80% 以上，但由於市場上新增供應，房價有所下降。

For Egypt there were fewer flights to the Red Sea resorts while in Saudi Arabia hotel demand was constrained by lower government spending. Looking ahead, Ramadan will start in early June this year, about two weeks earlier than last year, which should hurt second-quarter RevPAR comparisons in the Middle East.

埃及飛往紅海度假勝地的航班減少，而沙烏地阿拉伯的飯店需求則因政府支出減少而受到限制。展望未來，今年的齋戒月將於 6 月初開始，比去年提前了大約兩週，這應該會對中東地區第二季度的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 比較造成影響。

In Africa our Protea Hotels performed very well helped by strong local business and international tourism attracted by the weak South African rand. Protea's systemwide constant dollar RevPAR rose nearly 15% in the first quarter and we expect it will increase at a high-single-digit rate for the full year.

在非洲，由於強勁的本地業務和疲軟的南非蘭特吸引的國際旅遊業，我們的普羅蒂亞酒店表現出色。Protea 系統內以固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 在第一季成長了近 15%，我們預計全年將以接近兩位數的速度成長。

Our Asia-Pacific region performed better than expected in the first quarter. While economic growth in China has moderated, consumer spending on travel remains strong. Shanghai and Beijing had very strong results in the quarter with RevPAR up in the high-single-digits.

第一季度，我們亞太地區的業績優於預期。儘管中國經濟成長放緩，但消費者在旅遊方面的支出依然強勁。上海和北京本季業績非常強勁，每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 均實現了接近兩位數的成長。

Nearly 60% of mainland China hotel demand comes from mainland Chinese travelers and their numbers are growing. In the first quarter the number of domestic Chinese travelers visiting our hotels in that market increased 7% while the number of mainland Chinese travelers visiting our hotels abroad increased 25%. Thailand and Japan were particular beneficiaries.

中國大陸近 60% 的飯店需求來自中國大陸遊客，而且這一數字還在增加。第一季度，中國國內遊客造訪我們在該市場的飯店數量增加了7%，而中國大陸遊客造訪我們海外飯店的數量增加了25%。泰國和日本是特別受益者。

Hong Kong continued to see weak mainland China demand due to its strong currency tied to the US dollar. In India the economy is strengthening and first-quarter RevPAR was up 14%.

由於港幣與美元掛鉤，香港市場對中國大陸的需求持續疲軟。印度經濟走強，第一季每間可供出租客房收入增加了 14%。

We see significant development opportunities outside North America particularly for limited service hotels. Today our international limited service development pipeline totals nearly 250 hotels with more than 47,000 rooms, a 30% increase in the last year.

我們看到北美以外地區，特別是有限服務型飯店領域，存在著巨大的發展機會。目前，我們的國際有限服務型酒店開發項目總數接近 250 家，客房總數超過 47,000 間，比去年增長了 30%。

In Europe, after adding manpower to our development effort in recent years, we already have 70 limited service hotels in our development pipeline including more than 40 Moxy and AC hotels.

近年來，我們在歐洲加大了研發投入，目前已有 70 家有限服務型飯店正在籌建中，其中包括 40 多家 Moxy 和 AC 飯店。

In India one-half of our existing properties and 60% of our pipeline hotels are in the limited service brands. In China we recently signed a deal with Eastern Crown to launch Fairfield by Marriott. While none are yet in the pipeline, we expect to have 140 Fairfield's signed in five years and 100 hotels open by 2021.

在印度，我們現有酒店中有一半是有限服務品牌，而我們正在籌建的酒店中有 60% 是有限服務品牌。最近，我們與東方皇冠集團在中國簽署了一項協議，推出萬豪旗下的費爾菲爾德酒店。雖然目前還沒有任何項目正在籌備中，但我們預計五年內將簽約 140 家 Fairfield 酒店，到 2021 年將有 100 家酒店開業。

In Mexico we already have 20 limited service hotels open and another 16 in the development pipeline. Finally, in the Middle East our limited service hotels, Courtyard, Fairfield, Residence Inn and Protea, represent 40% of our pipeline in that region.

在墨西哥，我們已經開設了 20 家有限服務酒店，另有 16 家正在開發中。最後，在中東，我們的有限服務型飯店，包括 Courtyard、Fairfield、Residence Inn 和 Protea，佔該地區我們業務的 40%。

Our unit growth is strong around the world. Excluding Starwood we expect our worldwide rooms distribution to grow by 8% gross or 7% net in 2016. Based on SDR industry pipeline data, one in four hotels under construction in the US today will fly one of our flags. And worldwide one in seven hotels under construction will be flagged with the Marriott brand.

我們在全球範圍內的業務成長勢頭強勁。除喜達屋酒店集團外，我們預計 2016 年全球客房分銷總額將增加 8%，淨額將增加 7%。根據 SDR 行業管道數據，目前美國在建酒店中，每四家就有一家將懸掛我們的旗幟。全球範圍內，每七家在建酒店中就有一家將掛上萬豪品牌的旗號。

We are already the biggest hotel company in the world when measured by total rooms open. We signed over 100,000 rooms in both 2014 and 2015. Those signings give us great confidence in our openings in the years ahead.

以已開放客房總數計算，我們已經是世界上最大的酒店公司。我們在 2014 年和 2015 年分別簽約了超過 10 萬間客房。這些簽約讓我們對未來幾年的開幕充滿信心。

With our Starwood acquisition we will become a more global company, able to better leverage global trends and seize opportunities. Following the acquisition we estimate more than a third of our rooms and fees will come from outside the US.

透過收購喜達屋，我們將成為一家更俱全球化的公司，能夠更好地利用全球趨勢並抓住機會。收購完成後，我們預計超過三分之一的客房收入和費用將來自美國以外地區。

We've talked a lot about the synergies in this transaction and the economies of scale that are inherent in this business. From G&A to reservations to the frequent traveler program to the back of the house, we expect to recognize meaningful top-line and bottom-line improvements over time and unit growth should benefit as well.

我們已經多次談到了這筆交易中的協同效應以及該業務固有的規模經濟效益。從一般及行政費用到預訂，再到常旅客計劃和後廚，我們預計隨著時間的推移，收入和利潤都將得到顯著改善，單位增長也將從中受益。

With a broader brand portfolio we will be able to offer the right brand for each asset and market. This means we can play in more sandboxes than many of our competitors, winning the highest value opportunities.

憑藉更廣泛的品牌組合，我們將能夠為每項資產和市場提供合適的品牌。這意味著我們可以在比許多競爭對手更多的領域中嘗試，從而贏得最有價值的機會。

We still expect the Starwood transaction will close midyear 2016. We are awaiting regulatory approvals from the EU, China, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. In the meantime, we continue to do the blocking and tackling to drive results and improve our business.

我們仍然預期喜達屋的交易將於 2016 年年中完成。我們正在等待歐盟、中國、墨西哥和沙烏地阿拉伯的監管部門批准。同時，我們繼續做好基礎工作，以推動業績成長並改善業務。

In March we introduced Marriott Reward Member Rates, designed to reward loyalty members who book direct. The list of member only perks continues to grow: loyalty points, mobile check-in and checkout, free Wi-Fi and now lower rates. Today 65% of transient room nights come from rewards members.

今年三月，我們推出了萬豪禮賞會員價，旨在獎勵直接預訂的忠誠會員。會員專屬福利清單不斷增加：積分獎勵、手機辦理入住和退房、免費 Wi-Fi，現在還有更低的價格。如今，65%的臨時客房預訂量來自獎勵計畫會員。

This month we announced enhancement to the rewards part of Marriott Rewards, offering a wide array of curated special events and opportunities. In addition, an initial group of Elite members will be invited to participate in a new Elite concierge service.

本月我們宣布對萬豪禮賞的獎勵部分進行升級，提供一系列精心策劃的特別活動和機會。此外，首批精英會員將受邀參與一項全新的精英禮賓服務。

By developing a relationship with a member the concierge will be able to anticipate their unique needs, ensuring the member's preferences are recognized and their desires are met before, during and after their stay. And for gold and platinum Elite's guaranteed late checkout should make traveling both more pleasurable and more productive.

透過與會員建立關係，禮賓人員能夠預見他們的獨特需求，確保會員的偏好在入住前、入住期間和入住後都得到認可和滿足。金卡和白金卡會員可享受延遲退房的保證，這應該會讓旅行更加愉快和高效。

Marriott's competitive advantages are numerous: strong brands, widespread distribution, powerful sales channels, loyalty program and reservation systems, back of the house efficiencies, owner and franchisee preference and, most important, a culture focused on our people. But we also know that success is never final, so we are working to be even better.

萬豪的競爭優勢眾多：強大的品牌、廣泛的分銷管道、強大的銷售管道、忠誠度計劃和預訂系統、高效的後台運營、業主和加盟商的青睞，以及最重要的是，以人為本的企業文化。但我們也知道，成功並非終點，所以我們正在努力做得更好。

Now let me turn things over to Leeny for more about the quarter. Leeny?

現在讓我把麥克風交給李尼，請她來詳細介紹本季的情況。莉妮？

Thank you, Arne. for the first quarter of 2016, adjusted diluted earnings per share totaled $0.87, $0.04 ahead of the midpoint of our guidance of $0.81 to $0.85. Fee revenue was in line with our expectations.

謝謝你，阿恩。2016 年第一季度，經調整後的稀釋每股收益總計 0​​.87 美元，比我們先前預測的 0.81 美元至 0.85 美元的中點高出 0.04 美元。手續費收入符合預期。

Results on our owned, leased and other line contributed about $0.05 of outperformance, including $0.03 from branding fees from residential real estate and our Marriott Rewards credit card, and the balance largely coming from performance of our owned and leased hotels.

自有、租賃及其他業務的業績貢獻了約 0.05 美元的超額收益，其中包括住宅房地產和萬豪禮賞信用卡品牌費的 0.03 美元，其餘部分主要來自自有和租賃酒店的業績。

Adjusted general and administrative costs were better than expected by about a penny, mainly due to open associate positions. Interest and taxes were about $0.02 unfavorable, largely due to some discrete tax items in the quarter. All in all it was a solid quarter.

調整後的管理費用比預期好約一分錢，主要原因是空缺的助理職位。利息和稅金約有 0.02 美元的不利影響，這主要是由於本季度的一些特殊稅收項目造成的。總的來說，這是一個穩健的季度。

Total fee revenue increase 5%. As you know, 2016 is a leap year. The extra day in the quarter did not impact our RevPAR statistics, but we estimate it added about 1% to our property level revenue and fee growth in the quarter. Base fees rose 4% reflecting RevPAR and unit growth offset by more than $4 million of unfavorable foreign exchange.

總費用收入增加5%。如你所知，2016年是閏年。本季多出的一天並沒有影響我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 統計數據，但我們估計它使本季度我們的物業收入和費用增長增加了約 1%。基本費用上漲 4%，反映了每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 和單位數量的增長，但被超過 400 萬美元的不利外匯影響所抵消。

Incentive fees increased 13% reflecting roughly $3 million of unfavorable foreign exchange impact and a $2 million favorable recognition of a deferred incentive fee. Worldwide 63% of managed hotels earned an incentive fee in the quarter compared to 48% in the year ago quarter. In North American incentive fees rose 23% with incentive fees for our limited service brands up 40% alone.

激勵費用增加了 13%，反映了約 300 萬美元的不利外匯影響以及 200 萬美元的遞延激勵費用的有利確認。在全球範圍內，63%的管理飯店在本季獲得了獎勵費用，而去年同期這一比例為48%。在北美，激勵費用上漲了 23%，其中我們有限服務品牌的激勵費用僅上漲了 40%。

Franchise fees were flat year-over-year. Strong unit growth and RevPAR improvement were offset by $15 million of lower relicensing fees and $2 million of unfavorable foreign exchange impact. Owned, leased and other revenue net of expenses totaled $81 million in the quarter, 29% higher than the prior year largely driven by higher brand fees associated with sales of Ritz-Carlton residences and our co-branded credit cards.

加盟費與前一年持平。強勁的單位成長和每間可供出租客房收入的提高被 1500 萬美元的重新授權費和 200 萬美元的不利外匯影響所抵消。本季自有、租賃及其他收入扣除支出後總計 8,100 萬美元，較上年同期成長 29%，主要原因是麗茲卡爾頓公寓銷售和聯名信用卡相關的品牌費用增加。

Our leased hotels in Tokyo and [Horaqua] showed much better results as they came out of renovation, but those results were offset by foregone owned profit from our Ritz-Carlton St. Thomas Hotel which became a Company managed property late last year.

我們在東京和[Horaqua]的租賃酒店在翻新後取得了更好的業績，但這些業績被我們放棄的麗思卡爾頓聖路易斯酒店的自有利潤所抵消。托馬斯酒店於去年底成為公司管理的物業。

Adjusted general and administrative expenses increased by $10 million, largely reflecting routine cost increases. This quarter we benefited from $10 million of lower reserves for guarantee funding while the 2015 quarter benefited from $12 million associated with favorable litigation resolutions.

調整後的管理費用增加了 1000 萬美元，主要反映了日常成本的成長。本季我們受惠於擔保資金準備金減少 1,000 萬美元，而 2015 年第一季則受惠於有利的訴訟和解帶來的 1,200 萬美元收益。

We repurchased nearly 4 million shares during the quarter for approximately $225 million. We expect to complete the Starwood acquisition mid-year and expect to resume share repurchases in late 2016 once our leverage ratios return to targeted levels.

本季我們回購了近 400 萬股股票，總金額約 2.25 億美元。我們預計在年中完成對喜達屋的收購，並預計在 2016 年底槓桿率恢復到目標水準後恢復股票回購。

For our second quarter our guidance assumes the Starwood transaction will close sometime after June 30. For Marriott's legacy business we expect second-quarter North American systemwide RevPAR will increase 3% to 5% reflecting strong group business already on the books.

對於第二季度，我們的業績預期是假設喜達屋交易將在 6 月 30 日之後完成。對於萬豪的傳統業務，我們預計第二季北美系統整體RevPAR將成長3%至5%，這反映了已預訂的強勁團體業務。

We expect international systemwide RevPAR will increase 2% to 4%, reflecting strong Asia-Pacific trends offset by weak RevPAR in the Middle East. We expect Marriott's fee revenue will increase 6% to 8% in the second quarter.

我們預期國際系統整體RevPAR將成長2%至4%，這反映了亞太地區的強勁成長趨勢，但被中東地區RevPAR疲軟所抵銷。我們預計萬豪酒店集團第二季的費用收入將成長 6% 至 8%。

We expect our owned, leased and other results in the second quarter will increase roughly 25% with continued strong branding fees, lower preopening expenses and higher profits from our owned and leased hotels. We expect G&A will increase 2% to 5%. Adjusted net interest expense should total roughly $40 million.

我們預計，在第二季度，自有、租賃及其他業務的業績將增長約 25%，這得益於持續強勁的品牌推廣費、較低的開業前費用以及自有和租賃酒店更高的利潤。我們預計一般及行政費用將增加2%至5%。調整後的淨利息支出總額約為 4000 萬美元。

All in all we expect our second-quarter adjusted EBITDA will total $495 million to $510 million, an increase of 8% to 12%. Adjusted EPS should total $0.96 to $1.00, an increase of 10% to 15% year over year. This forecast assumes no share repurchase during the quarter and doesn't include Starwood transition and transaction costs.

總而言之，我們預計第二季調整後 EBITDA 將達到 4.95 億美元至 5.1 億美元，成長 8% 至 12%。調整後每股收益應為 0.96 美元至 1.00 美元，年增 10% 至 15%。該預測假設本季內不進行股票回購，且不包括喜達屋的過渡和交易成本。

Turning to the full year, we expect worldwide RevPAR from Marriott's legacy business will increase 3% to 5%. Combined with 7% net rooms growth, we expect our 2016 fee revenue will total roughly $2 billion, consistent with our forecast in February.

展望全年，我們預計萬豪傳統業務的全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 3% 至 5%。加上客房淨成長7%，我們預計2016年費用收入總額將達到約20億美元，與我們2月的預測一致。

Owned, leased and other revenue net of direct expenses should total $310 million to $315 million, about $10 million ahead of our February forecast, largely due to stronger residential branding fees. We expect our full-year adjusted general and administrative expenses will total $645 million to $655 million, about $5 million better than our last forecast largely due to the open associate positions we mentioned about Q1.

扣除直接費用後，自有、租賃和其他收入總計應為 3.1 億美元至 3.15 億美元，比我們 2 月份的預測高出約 1000 萬美元，這主要是由於住宅品牌費的上漲。我們預計全年調整後的一般及行政費用總額將達到 6.45 億美元至 6.55 億美元，比我們上次的預測高出約 500 萬美元，這主要是因為我們在第一季度提到了空缺的助理職位。

For the Marriott legacy business, 2016 investment spending could total $450 million to $550 million, including about $100 million in maintenance spending. Excluding Starwood we expect to recycle roughly $200 million to $250 million through asset sales and loan repayments through 2016.

對於萬豪的傳統業務而言，2016 年的投資支出總額可能達到 4.5 億美元至 5.5 億美元，其中包括約 1 億美元的維護支出。除喜達屋酒店集團外，我們預計到 2016 年將透過資產出售和貸款償還回收約 2 億至 2.5 億美元。

Making an EPS projection for the full-year 2016 is difficult given the uncertain timing of the Starwood transaction. To assist you modelers, however, for full-year 2016, we expect Marriott's standalone adjusted EBITDA will total $1.9 billion to $1.965 billion, about $15 million better than our February forecast.

鑑於喜達屋交易的時間尚不確定，因此很難對 2016 年全年每股盈餘進行預測。不過，為了幫助各位建模人員，我們預計萬豪酒店集團 2016 年全年獨立調整後的 EBITDA 將達到 19 億美元至 19.65 億美元，比我們 2 月的預測高出約 1,500 萬美元。

Given that 2016 transition and transaction costs are uncertain at this point, we aren't including these costs in our guidance, but rather expect to breakout such expenses as actual results are recognized, as we did this quarter. When the transaction closes we estimate we will issue roughly 136 million Marriott shares and increase total debt by roughly $3.5 billion, representing an estimated $20 million in higher net interest cost per quarter.

鑑於 2016 年的過渡和交易成本目前尚不確定，我們暫不將這些成本計入業績指引，而是預計在確認實際業績時，像本季度一樣，將這些費用單獨列出。交易完成後，我們預計將發行約 1.36 億股萬豪股票，總債務將增加約 35 億美元，預計每季淨利息成本將增加約 2,000 萬美元。

Incremental depreciation and amortization from the transaction will depend on purchase price accounting valuations that have not yet been completed. In a recent 8-K we estimated incremental depreciation and amortization from the transaction at roughly $52 million per quarter. Like you, we will rely on Starwood's forecast of their RevPAR growth, unit growth, asset sale assumptions and adjusted EBITDA for their business. We eagerly await their first-quarter results and 2016 outlook.

交易產生的增量折舊和攤提將取決於尚未完成的購買價格會計估價。在最近的 8-K 文件中，我們估計該交易帶來的新增折舊和攤銷約為每季 5,200 萬美元。和你們一樣，我們將依賴喜達屋對其RevPAR成長、單元成長、資產出售假設和調整後EBITDA的預測來評估其業務。我們熱切期待他們公佈第一季業績和2016年展望。

Our results in 2016 are likely to be messy. Including Starwood, by the end of this year we expect to be back to our targeted leverage range and to have resumed share repurchases. We expect most of the corporate level cost synergies associated with the transaction to be in place by the beginning of 2017.

我們2016年的結果可能不太理想。包括喜達屋在內，我們預計到今年年底，槓桿率將恢復到目標範圍，並恢復股票回購。我們預計與此交易相關的公司層面的大部分成本綜效將在 2017 年初實現。

We are committed to completing asset sales promptly. Including Starwood, we could see continued strong unit growth in 2017 even with our larger size. Also, we continue to believe the transaction will be earnings per share neutral in 2017 before including the benefits of possible revenue synergies.

我們致力於盡快完成資產出售。即使公司規模擴大，包括喜達屋在內，我們預計 2017 年的單位數量仍將保持強勁成長。此外，我們仍然認為，在不計入可能的收入綜效帶來的收益的情況下，該交易在 2017 年不會對每股收益產生影響。

We appreciate your interest in Marriott. So that we can speak to as many as possible, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We will take questions now.

感謝您對萬豪酒店的關注。為了盡可能與大家交流，請您盡量只提一個問題和一個後續問題。現在開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions). Felicia Hendrix, Barclays.

（操作說明）費利西亞·亨德里克斯，巴克萊銀行。

My first question, which as a first question is a two-parter. So, Arne, I think what is on a lot of people's mind is the kind of Easter shift. So you talked about April being up 5.2%; just wondering how much of that comes from Easter. And then also, as we know, April -- I think Hilton said yesterday that they expected May to be weaker and then June to pick up. Are you seeing the same thing?

我的第一個問題，作為第一個問題，其實包含兩個部分。所以，阿恩，我想很多人都在考慮復活節假期期間的工作調整。你提到四月增長了 5.2%；我想知道其中有多少是復活節帶來的。此外，我們都知道，4 月——我想希爾頓昨天說過，他們預計 5 月會比較疲軟，然後 6 月會好轉。你看到的也是同樣的情況嗎？

Those are sort of detailed questions. I'm going to also give you sort of a general answer to the question you haven't asked, but I think is top of mind for everybody.

這些問題都比較具體。我還要就你沒有問到但我認為大家最關心的問題給出一些概括性的回答。

We think it is -- as we said in the prepared remarks, we think the negative RevPAR impact was about 1 point in Q1 to the shift of Easter. The impact to Q2 could be about the same. Obviously the impact to one month of April would be larger and it could be nearly 2%.

我們認為——正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所說——我們認為復活節假期的變動對第一季每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的負面影響約為 1 個百分點。對第二季的影響可能大致相同。顯然，對四月的影響會更大，可能會接近 2%。

Important to keep in mind though that last week and April still has Passover in it. And so, we will look at the impact when the dust ultimately settles and give you a more precise calculation. But it would be something close to 2% we would think for April.

但要注意的是，最後一週和四月仍包含逾越節。因此，我們將在塵埃落定之後，分析其影響，並給出更精確的計算結果。但我們估計4月的比例應該接近2%。

When we look at our group bookings, which of course are the clearest long-term data we have, we see April and June relatively better than May. But we see good group for Q2 as a whole, we see good group for Q3 as a whole, Q4 okay but not quite as good as Q2 and Q3. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we have got about 7% increased group revenue on the books for Q2 through Q4 compared to the same time last year.

當我們查看團體預訂情況時（這當然是我們擁有的最清晰的長期數據），我們發現 4 月和 6 月的情況相對比 5 月要好。但我們看到第二季整體表現良好，第三季整體表現良好，第四季還可以，但不如第二季和第三季。正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所說，與去年同期相比，我們第二季至第四季的集團營收成長了約 7%。

The biggest question at the moment obviously is not so much about group but is about the strength of transient demand. And so, let's maybe start with the basics. Transient demand correlates most closely with GDP growth. Statistics out this morning show that US Q1 GDP growth was only 0.5%, anemic even in the context of the fairly moderate US economic recovery we have been witnessing the last few years.

目前最大的問題顯然不在於群體，而是短期需求的強度。那麼，我們不妨從基礎知識開始吧。暫時性需求與GDP成長的相關性最高。今天早上公佈的統計數據顯示，美國第一季GDP成長率僅0.5%，即使考慮到過去幾年我們所看到的美國經濟復甦勢頭較為溫和，這一增長率也顯得疲軟無力。

The question for all of us, including for you, is do we expect the US economy to perform at higher growth rates in the quarters ahead. We do, it seems reasonably clear that sentiment was profoundly negative early in this year and that it has improved significantly since January. And that plus other statistics around employment growth and other things would suggest that the economy is poised to perform at better than that 0.5% number in Q1.

包括你我在內的所有人都要思考的問題是：我們是否預期美國經濟在未來幾季會保持更高的成長率？的確，很明顯，今年年初市場情緒非常悲觀，但自1月以來已經顯著改善。再加上就業成長和其他方面的統計數據，顯示第一季經濟成長預計預計將超過 0.5%。

Now based on our information as opposed to GDP information, the US market seems to us to be characterized by a number of short stories, if you will. Let me give you a few examples.

現在，根據我們掌握的資訊（而不是 GDP 資訊），我們認為美國市場的特徵可以用許多短篇故事來概括。我舉幾個例子。

Houston, weak because of the weakness in the oil patch. New York, weak primarily because of supply growth, but also maybe a bit because of the strength of the US dollar and its impact on international rivals. Miami, weak probably mostly because of the weakness in Brazil, one of the great source markets for Miami, and to some extent maybe growth in luxury supply. San Francisco, very strong reflection of the strong health of the US digital economy. And of course LA also quite strong.

休士頓經濟疲軟，是因為石油業的疲軟。紐約股市疲軟主要是因為供應成長，但也可能部分是因為美元走強及其對國際競爭對手的影響。邁阿密市場疲軟，可能主要是因為巴西市場疲軟，而巴西是邁阿密的主要客源市場之一；此外，奢侈品供應量的成長也可能是造成疲軟的原因之一。舊金山的情況非常有力地反映了美國數位經濟的強勁發展勢頭。當然，洛杉磯的實力也很強。

Now our biggest customers also tell us things that are quite different. Many of them tell us that their book of business is solid and reflects continued health in their business and from their perch strength in the US economy. Some wrestling with flattish top lines seem to be turning with greater attention to managing costs, including their travel budgets.

現在，我們最大的客戶也告訴我們一些截然不同的事情。他們中的許多人告訴我們，他們的業務狀況良好，反映了他們業務的持續健康發展以及他們在美國經濟中的強大地位。一些企業似乎正在努力應對營收成長乏力的問題，並更加重視成本控制，包括差旅預算。

And when we roll all these anecdotes together, the view about these markets, what we see is a collection of short stories, but not a common theme let alone the same author. So our view as reflected in our continued 3% to 5% RevPAR growth guidance is that we expect the US economy to continue to bump along with moderate GDP growth and therefore moderate occupancy growth which, when combined with ADR growth, should deliver 3% to 5% RevPAR growth for the year.

當我們把所有這些軼事匯聚在一起，看到關於這些市場的觀點時，我們看到的是一系列短篇故事，但沒有一個共同的主題，更不用說出自同一作者之手了。因此，正如我們持續給出的 3% 至 5% 的 RevPAR 增長預期所反映的那樣，我們預計美國經濟將繼續穩步增長，GDP 也將保持溫和增長，入住率也將隨之溫和增長，再加上 ADR 的增長，應該能夠實現今年 3% 至 5% 的 RevPAR 增長。

And, Arne, just to quickly -- and then I will go -- follow up on that. Previously you said that you expected to come in at the high end of that range. Is that still the view?

還有，Arne，簡單說一下——然後我就走了——跟進一下。你之前說過，你預期最終結果會達到該範圍的高端。現在還是那個景象嗎？

Well, the 3% to 5% is still the range that we think is appropriate. This question that I just addressed is a question that we are talking about internally as well. And of course we have got forecasts that get rolled up from our properties around the world.

嗯，我們認為3%到5%仍然是合適的範圍。我剛才提到的這個問題，也是我們內部正在討論的問題。當然，我們還有來自世界各地物業的匯總預測數據。

We also have maybe a slightly more conservative view here based on recent trends, but generally all of those forecasts are above the midpoint of that 3% to 5% range. And we would think as a consequence it is at least as likely we are at 5% as we are at 3%. This will though depend on what happens with transient demand in the quarters ahead.

根據最近的趨勢，我們可能也持有稍微保守的觀點，但總的來說，所有這些預測都高於 3% 到 5% 範圍的中點。因此，我們認為，實際發生機率為 5% 的可能性至少與發生機率為 3% 的可能性一樣大。但這取決於未來幾季短期需求的走勢。

Okay, that is all very helpful color. Thank you.

好的，這些顏色資訊都非常有用。謝謝。

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

肖恩凱利，美國銀行。

Leeny, in your remarks towards the very end where you were giving some helpful pieces of the merger, I think you mentioned that corporate level synergies were expected to be in place by 2017. I was wondering if you could elaborate on that.

Leeny，在你發言的最後，你提供了一些關於合併的有用信息，我想你提到過，預計到 2017 年，公司層面的協同效應將會實現。我想請您詳細解釋一下。

Is the corporate level component -- how much of that, or I mean directionally at least, is the $250 million that you guys have outlined? And how much should we think is going to take more time?

企業層面的投入——或至少從方向上看——有多少是你們概述的 2.5 億美元？那我們應該認為多少事情需要更多時間呢？

We expect and aim to put in place so that starting January 1 you would see -- as a run rate you would see that for the year we would achieve those $250 million synergies. Now that is obviously going to be on an adjusted basis, Shaun, because we will continue to have some transition cost as on certain technological systems we have got to run parallel systems until we get them put together.

我們期望併計劃落實到位，以便從 1 月 1 日起，您將看到——作為一項運行指標，您將看到我們今年將實現 2.5 億美元的協同效應。肖恩，這顯然需要進行調整，因為我們仍會有一些過渡成本，因為在某些技術系統上，我們必須並行運行系統，直到我們將它們整合在一起。

So from that standpoint we would hope by the end of 2017 that we've got that largely done. But I think on a good basic, solid, running the Company run rate you should see that in place in 2017.

因此，從這個角度來看，我們希望到 2017 年底，我們能夠基本上完成這項工作。但我認為，在良好的基本面、穩健的營運模式下，公司在 2017 年應該能夠實現這一目標。

That's helpful. And then I guess as a follow-up, for the last quarter or two you've been talking and highlighting about more on the residential branding fee side. This just seems -- could you just talk a little bit more about why that comes through? Or is that recognized when residential units come online or is it recognized when you guys are signing contracts for stuff in the future?

那很有幫助。然後我想作為後續，在過去的一兩個季度裡，你們一直在談論和強調住宅品牌推廣費的內容。這似乎——您能否再詳細談談為什麼會有這種感覺？或者，這是在住宅單元投入使用時才予以考慮，還是在你們簽訂未來專案的合約時才予以考慮？

Sure, absolutely. No, you're right. Clearly not quite as predictable as all of us would like. Let me talk a little bit about the residential branding fees. As I'm sure you know, these stem from projects and often they are connected to our hotels. But they stem from residential projects where our brand is a part of those projects and we earn a fee on the sale of those residences. And it is not -- we are not paid for those until they are not only sold but there actually closed.

當然可以。不，你說得對。顯然，事情並不像我們所有人希望的那樣可預測。讓我簡單談談住宅品牌推廣費用。如您所知，這些都源於一些項目，通常與我們的酒店有關。但它們都源自於住宅項目，在這些項目中，我們的品牌是其中的一部分，我們從這些住宅的銷售中賺取佣金。事實並非如此——只有當這些房產不僅售出而且實際成交後，我們才能收到款項。

So number one, you've got something that opens, so it is a little bit hard to predict exactly the pace of the sales and then the pace of the closings. But we have a project, Waikiki is a great example of one in Hawaii that began selling at the beginning -- late last year and it has just been selling like hotcakes. And basically we expect it to sell out this year 300 units. And we had had it more spread across the year while it turns out it was largely done in Q1 because it is so popular.

首先，由於是新店開業，所以很難準確預測銷售速度和成交速度。但我們有一個項目，威基基就是一個很好的例子，它是夏威夷的一個項目，從去年年底開始銷售，一直非常暢銷。我們預計今年將售出 300 台。我們原本以為這項工作會分散到全年進行，但結果發現它主要集中在第一季完成，因為它非常受歡迎。

The good news is this is a business that has been -- although it is clearly cyclical related to the financing of real estate, it has been growing very nicely for us, particularly internationally. So when you look at this year's fees, the average over the last call it five years has been about $15 million a year. We do expect this year for that number to be closer to double that.

好消息是，雖然這項業務顯然與房地產融資有周期性，但它對我們來說成長得非常好，尤其是在國際上。所以，看看今年的費用，過去五年來的平均費用約為每年 1500 萬美元。我們預計今年這個數字將接近今年的兩倍。

But when you look over the next few years, Shaun, I think you are looking at a number of residential branding fees that probably is likely to be in the high 20s because we have got a great pipeline of projects that are moving along.

但肖恩，展望未來幾年，我認為住宅品牌推廣費可能會達到 20 多萬，因為我們有很多項目正在推進中。

By the way, these projects are all fee projects for us, we are not developing these luxury residential ourselves. So one of the issues on the predictability is we are not running the sale -- either the building or the sales --

順便說一下，這些項目都是我們的收費項目，我們自己並沒有開發這些豪華住宅。因此，可預測性方面的問題之一是，我們並沒有實際參與銷售——無論是樓盤還是銷售本身——

Or the sale.

或者說是銷售。

-- or the sales of this process and we have got to wait until the units close before we know for certain when we'll recognize those fees.

——或者說，這個過程的銷售，我們必須等到單元房成交後才能確定何時確認這些費用。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

It looks like your incentive management fees or the percentage of properties paying incentive management fees jumped up quite significantly year-over-year. Is that a level that you expect to see on a full-year basis that kind of increase?

看起來您的激勵管理費或支付激勵管理費的物業百分比比去年同期大幅上漲。你預計全年都會維持這種成長水準嗎？

Yes, it is actually. It jumped up meaningfully largely because we had a portfolio -- actually three managed portfolios of limited service hotels that the IMF is calculated on a portfolio basis. So when they all come, when they hit that target they all jump into being an incentive the territory. So it is actually about 160 hotels that jumped in Q1 this year as compared to Q1 last year that jumped into incentive fee territory.

是的，確實如此。其收益大幅成長主要是因為我們擁有一個投資組合——實際上是三個有限服務酒店的管理投資組合，國際貨幣基金組織是根據投資組合來計算收益的。所以當他們都達到目標時，他們都會積極參與激勵該領域的行動。所以，今年第一季與去年第一季相比，實際上有大約 160 家飯店跳槽到了獎勵費用領域。

Now I will say year-over-year -- the incentive the last year for the full year we did end up in the 60s for IMF fee participation. And we expect that to be similar this year. But in the Q1 last year in the first quarter those limited service hotels were not yet in incentive fee earnings territory.

現在我要說的是同比——去年全年的激勵措施，我們最終在參與國際貨幣基金組織費用方面達到了 60% 左右。我們預計今年情況也類似。但去年第一季度，這些有限服務型飯店還沒有達到賺取獎勵費用的水平。

Okay great, that is helpful. And one follow-up if I could. You mentioned the cost savings to be fully in place kind of it sounded like on start of 2017, which I think is a little bit earlier than -- or maybe you just hadn't committed to a date when they would be fully in place.

好的，太好了，這很有幫助。如果可以的話，我還有一個後續問題。您提到成本節約將在 2017 年初全面落實，這聽起來像是 2017 年初，我認為這比預期要早一些——或者也許您只是還沒有確定全面落實的具體日期。

But should we still think about -- I think you had previously said the transaction was going to be neutral to earnings per share in 2017 and 2018 so that maybe it wouldn't be accretive. Or I don't know if that implies that it would be accretive in 2019. But does that time frame move up with the comments this morning about cost saves being in place at the start of 2017?

但我們是否還應該考慮——我想你之前說過，這筆交易對 2017 年和 2018 年的每股盈餘不會產生影響，所以它可能不會帶來收益成長。或者，我不知道這是否意味著它在 2019 年會成長。但是，根據今天早上關於2017年初將實施成本節約措施的評論來看，這個時間框架是否會提前呢？

Let me just -- let's provide the typical warning which should be obvious I think to everybody. We haven't closed the transaction yet, and so there is still a lot of details that we don't know.

讓我先發出一個典型的警告，我想這對每個人來說都應該是顯而易見的。我們尚未完成交易，因此還有很多細節我們尚不清楚。

Leeny in fact mentioned in her prepared remarks that the depreciation and amortization for example won't get finalized until the transaction closes. Because given the amount of stock we are using in the deal, the amount we pay really will not be defined until actual closing because it will be derived in a significant extent from our own share price.

事實上，Leeny 在她準備好的演講稿中提到，例如折舊和攤提等問題要等到交易完成才能最終確定。因為考慮到我們在交易中使用的股票數量，我們支付的金額實際上要到實際交割時才能確定，因為它將在很大程度上取決於我們自己的股價。

And obviously there are other aspects of Starwood's operating business that until we close we won't understand with real detail. Generally though what we think is that $250 million worth of synergy run rate, which Leeny talked about for 2017, is included in our assumptions about a roughly neutral EPS impact from the transaction.

顯然，喜達屋運營業務還有其他方面，在我們完成交易之前，我們無法真正了解其細節。不過總的來說，我們認為 Leeny 在 2017 年提到的 2.5 億美元的綜效運行率已經包含在我們對該交易對每股盈餘大致中性影響的假設中。

It is probably the first time we have held it out there as being 1-1-17 as opposed to a second year I think is the way we talked about it before. And again, we have got a lot of work to do to make sure that that happens, we can't guarantee it. But we think that with that we will get a relatively neutral performance on EPS.

這可能是我們第一次稱它為 2017 年 1 月 1 日，而不是像之前那樣說是第二年。再次強調，我們還有很多工作要做才能確保這種情況發生，我們無法保證一定能夠實現。但我們認為，這樣做會對每股盈餘產生相對中性的影響。

I think the upside from that accretion, in other words, will be driven more by revenue synergies and margin synergies at the property level and how that drives unit growth. And then of course what we do with the powerful and substantial cash that is going to be generated by this combined business in either investing or returning that capital to shareholders.

換句話說，我認為這種成長帶來的收益將更多地取決於物業層面的收入協同效應和利潤協同效應，以及這些協同效應如何推動單元成長。當然，接下來我們還要考慮如何處理合併後公司將產生的大量現金，是進行投資還是將這些資本回饋給股東。

And then just a thought on the accretion in 2018 versus 2019 or timing?

那麼，關於2018年和2019年的吸積情況或時間安排，您有什麼想法嗎？

Stay tuned.

敬請關注。

I think it is a little too soon to talk about any (multiple speakers).

我認為現在談論（多位發言人）還為時過早。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Harry Curtis, Nomura.

哈里·柯蒂斯，野村證券。

So Arne, you mentioned that there are elements of economic improvement that you have seen. How is -- is that be reflected or was that reflected in the pace of your bookings in April versus the first quarter?

阿恩，你提到你看到了一些經濟改善的跡象。這是否反映在您4月份的預訂速度與第一季相比的變化？

Oh, I don't -- I actually don't have April group bookings if that is what you are talking about, I don't have April group bookings to date. Tend to get those at the end of the month. But we do have obviously the 5.2% RevPAR growth systemwide in the US stayed and paid for the month; obviously a piece of that is the impact of Easter.

哦，我沒有——實際上，如果您指的是四月份的團體預訂，我目前還沒有四月份的團體預訂。通常在月底會遇到這種情況。但顯然，我們在美國系統範圍內實現了 5.2% 的 RevPAR 增長，這意味著當月有客人留宿並支付了房費；顯然，其中一部分原因是復活節的影響。

And I think what we would say is at the moment we see some positive signs compared to the last few months. But I wouldn't characterize our comments as sitting here and saying we have got a dramatic shift in transient this month compared to prior months. I think what we see is more steady than that.

我認為我們可以說，目前我們看到了一些積極的跡象，與過去幾個月相比。但我不會這樣描述我們的評論：我們坐在這裡說，與前幾個月相比，本月的過境旅客數量發生了巨大變化。我認為我們看到的情況比這更穩定。

Again, we look at the group data that we have got on the books and we look at sort of the current conditions and we still think this range is a solid one. I think it in fact does depend on GDP growth in the 2%-ish range as opposed to the sort of 0.5% that appears to be the case from Q1. But again, our view is that is what we are likely to see.

我們再次查看了我們掌握的集團數據，並考察了目前的情況，我們仍然認為這個範圍是穩健的。我認為這實際上取決於 GDP 成長率在 2% 左右，而不是像第一季那樣只有 0.5% 左右。但我們仍然認為，這很可能是我們會看到的情況。

Thank you. And, Leeny, as a follow-up to your comment about revenue synergies not yet spelled out in the transaction. Can you give us perhaps the top three or four buckets that you are hoping to get revenue synergies from?

謝謝。Leeny，關於你提到的交易中尚未明確規定的收入綜效，我想補充一點。您能否列出您希望從中獲得收入綜效的前三到四個領域？

Sure. First and foremost, as we move through it we are very excited about the growth opportunities that we see for the overall hotel portfolio from adding together Starwood into ours. So I think from a unit growth perspective that first and foremost we see opportunities there.

當然。首先，也是最重要的一點，隨著我們不斷推進，我們對將喜達屋納入我們的酒店組合所帶來的整體酒店組合增長機會感到非常興奮。所以我認為，從單位成長的角度來看，首先也是最重要的是，我們看到了這方面的機會。

We also see some opportunities through a variety of our partnerships as we think about being a much larger Company and ways that as we become stronger and bigger that we will be able to capitalize on those.

我們也看到了透過各種合作關係獲得的一些機會，因為我們正在考慮成為一家更大的公司，隨著我們變得越來越強大、越來越大，我們將能夠利用這些機會。

And then last but certainly not least is as we look at what we believe we can do on the hotel margin side that we would benefit through -- on our fees through being able to deliver better profits to our hotel owners.

最後但同樣重要的是，我們還要考慮在酒店利潤方面我們可以做些什麼，透過提高酒店業主的利潤，從而提高我們的收費。

And on the partnership side, is that really more a revenue opportunity or more of a lower fee opportunity?

而就合作方面而言，這究竟是更多的收入機會，還是更多的是更低費用的機會？

Lower cost, you mean margin improvement? I think it is both.

降低成本，你是說提高利潤率嗎？我認為兩者都是。

I think, yes, I think it is definitely some on the top line as well.

是的，我認為它肯定也佔了重要地位。

Got you, okay. Thank you very much.

明白了，好的。非常感謝。

Steven Kent, Goldman Sachs.

史蒂文‧肯特，高盛集團。

Just a couple questions. One, how has the new push for direct bookings been going? You and one of your competitors have been pushing it pretty hard. Do you think it is boosting your RevPAR growth at all? Sort of what has been the reaction? I just wanted to ask an operating question before I ask a deal question which is -- could you just give us a sense of to how you will handle the loyalty programs and the timeshare licensing programs, whether you can give us an update on that? So I tried to lead with the operating and then went to the deal question.

幾個問題。第一，推動直接預訂的新措施進度如何？你和你的一個競爭對手一直在大力推廣這項技術。你認為它對提升你的RevPAR成長有任何幫助嗎？大家的反應如何？在提出交易問題之前，我想問一個營運方面的問題——您能否簡要介紹一下您將如何處理忠誠度計劃和分時度假許可計劃，能否給我們提供一些最新進展？所以我先從營運方面入手，然後再談交易問題。

There you go.

好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The member only rates that we rolled out are very new in the market. We announced them about a month ago but they became effective a little bit after that. And so, it is still quite early. And we have not put as many dollars into marketing those rates yet. Obviously they are visible online and we are doing some things.

我們推出的會員專屬價格在市場上是全新的。我們大約一個月前宣布了這些措施，但它們生效時間是在之後不久。所以，現在還為時過早。而且我們還沒有投入足夠的資金來推廣這些價格。顯然，這些活動在網路上都能看到，我們也正在做一些事情。

I think the early response has been positive but it is too early to give you the kind of statistics that you have heard from some others who have been out there and market longer with this. We have obviously done it because we are optimistic about this approach driving an increase in direct bookings and driving that much more awareness of the advantages of direct booking.

我認為目前的初步反應是正面的，但現在就給出像其他一些在這個領域耕耘更長時間、進行市場推廣的人所聽到的那種統計數據還為時過早。我們這樣做顯然是因為我們對這種方法能夠促進直接預訂量的成長，並提高人們對直接預訂優勢的認識持樂觀態度。

With respect to the loyalty programs, this is going to be very much a work in progress. It is clear that we will be running the Marriott rewards and SPG programs for some period of time. I would think that that has got to be more like two years than a year. But we will -- part of that is systems driven, part of that is making sure that we deal with our customers in a way that keeps them excited about these programs and has them participate with us in the way that they evolve.

關於會員忠誠度計劃，這方面還需要不斷改進。很顯然，我們將在一段時間內繼續經營萬豪禮賞和SPG會員計畫。我認為那應該更像是兩年而不是一年。但我們會做到——一部分是系統驅動的，一部分是確保我們以一種讓客戶對這些專案保持熱情並讓他們參與專案發展過程中的方式來對待客戶。

And then of course as your question implies, we have got a number of very powerful and strategic partners that are keenly interested in this program. Timeshare companies and credit card companies being the most significant, but they are not the only ones. And we are going to want to make sure we work with them to -- in a way that is successful to them and respects their interests and we will sort of keep you posted on this.

當然，正如你的問題所暗示的那樣，我們有很多實力雄厚且具有戰略意義的合作夥伴，他們對這個計畫非常感興趣。其中，分時度假公司和信用卡公司的影響最為顯著，但並非只有這兩家。我們希望確保與他們合作，以一種對他們有利且尊重他們利益的方式進行，我們隨時向您報告最新進展。

Obviously we would like to get to a place where we have a program which allows our growing group of loyal customers to have the benefits of the full portfolio of 5,500 hotels plus another 2,000 or so hotels which are in the combined pipeline, whatever those precise numbers are, and the ability to grow from there.

顯然，我們希望能夠建立一個計劃，讓不斷增長的忠實客戶群能夠享受到我們全部 5,500 家酒店以及另外 2,000 家左右正在籌建中的酒店（無論確切數字是多少）的全部優勢，並能夠在此基礎上不斷發展壯大。

So we will be working to get as much functionality between those programs as we can. And eventually hopefully a full merger, but we will see how that goes and we will keep you posted on it.

因此，我們將努力使這些程式之間盡可能實現功能整合。最終希望能夠實現全面合併，但我們將拭目以待，並隨時向您報告最新進展。

Just on the direct booking side, have you shared with your franchisees or owners what the positive impact can be to their bottom line? Have you done that yet or is it still too early to even give them indications of how favorable that can be?

單就直接預訂方面而言，您是否已與您的加盟商或業主分享過，這對他們的利潤會產生哪些正面影響？你已經這麼做了嗎？還是現在就讓他們知道這樣做有多有利還太早？

Well, we have an ongoing conversation with our owners and franchisees with a number of advisory committees that are meeting with our leadership teams very, very regularly. And we have been talking about doing this well before we launched it. And in the context of that, certainly have talked about the economic attributes of what we think this program can do.

我們一直與業主和加盟商保持溝通，許多諮詢委員會也定期與我們的領導團隊會面。早在推出這項服務之前，我們就一直在討論如何做這件事。在此背景下，我們當然也談到了我們認為該計劃能夠帶來的經濟效益。

We haven't done that in a way that puts us in a position to give you a forecast for the impact, but we will keep you posted on how we think it goes as it develops over the months ahead.

我們還沒有採取任何措施來預測其影響，但我們將在接下來的幾個月裡，隨著事態的發展，隨時向您通報我們認為的情況。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Joseph Greff, JPMorgan.

Joseph Greff，摩根大通。

Leeny, with respect to your earlier comments about revenue synergies not being included in your 2017 pro forma target for the Starwood deal, with respect to the timing of revenue synergies -- and this is also for you, Arne -- are they mostly intermediate or longer term in nature or could we start to see these emerge in 2017?

Leeny，關於你之前提到的2017年喜達屋交易的備考目標中沒有包含收入協同效應，關於收入協同效應的時間安排——這也是問你的，Arne——它們主要是中期還是長期性質的，或者我們能否在2017年開始看到它們出現？

We could, we could. But again, as Arne has described before, we are still several months away from closing. We have got a lot of work to do both looking at things related to the on-property cost and comparing it to our system as well as how we look at all these partnerships. So it could, but it is too soon to tell exactly when.

我們可以，我們可以。但正如 Arne 之前所描述的那樣，距離我們完成交易還有幾個月的時間。我們有很多工作要做，既要研究與物業成本相關的事項並將其與我們的系統進行比較，還要研究我們如何看待所有這些合作關係。所以有可能，但現在判斷具體時間還太早。

And presumably, Leeny, you will call out the transition cost each quarter?

想必Leeny，你會每季公佈過渡成本吧？

We will be calling out the transition and the transaction costs each and every quarter.

我們將每季公佈過渡期費用和交易成本。

Great. And then my follow-up -- if we assume the midpoint of your guidance for the Q2 through the balance of the year, would you expect group RevPAR to exceed transient RevPAR or are they -- how do you view that?

偉大的。然後我的後續問題是——如果我們假設您對第二季度到今年剩餘時間的指導意見的中點成立，您是否預期集團每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 會超過臨時每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)？或者—您對此有何看法？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I think one of the things -- obviously it won't be lost on you, but if you look at the release we put out last night, you can see a meaningful difference in the RevPAR for the managed portfolio in the United States and the franchise portfolio in the United States.

我的意思是，我認為其中一點——顯然您不會忽略這一點——如果您看看我們昨晚發布的報告，您會發現美國託管投資組合和美國特許經營投資組合的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 存在顯著差異。

Actually what we report externally is managed portfolio and then systemwide. And the managed portfolio is nearly a full point higher in RevPAR than the systemwide numbers are.

實際上，我們對外報告的是管理型投資組合，然後是系統整體情況。而且，管理型投資組合的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 比系統整體資料高出近一個百分點。

So in other words, Arne, you are not assuming a big corporate transient demand rebound in the back part of the year?

換句話說，Arne，你不認為今年下半年會出現大規模的企業短期需求反彈？

Again, we would say steady, maybe a bit better because of the weakness in the first quarter. But this is not fundamentally based on a dramatically different environment than the one that we have seen over the last few quarters.

再次強調，整體而言比較穩定，可能會因為第一季的疲軟表現而略有改善。但這並非基於與過去幾季我們所看到的截然不同的環境。

I suspect the downside here is that if GDP is, for the balance of the year, more like the 0.5% in Q1 we are going to be towards the bottom end of this range or in theory it could be below that. I think that is unlikely given the strength of the group business on the books. But obviously we can't know about transient business very far in advance.

我懷疑不利的一面是，如果今年剩餘時間的 GDP 成長率更接近第一季的 0.5%，那麼我們將處於這個區間的下限，或者理論上可能會低於這個數值。鑑於集團帳面上的業務實力，我認為這種情況不太可能發生。但顯然我們無法提前很久了解臨時業務的情況。

If we on the other hand [see the latter] quarters perform better, which I would expect to be the case, transient should perform a bit better than it did in Q1 and maybe Q4. But I wouldn't characterize it as a dramatically different environment, that is not what is built into our forecast.

另一方面，如果（後一季）表現更好（我預計會是這樣），瞬態性能應該會比第一季甚至第四季好一些。但我不會將其描述為截然不同的環境，我們的預測中並沒有考慮到這一點。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Ryan Meliker, Canaccord Genuity.

Ryan Meliker，Canaccord Genuity。

I just wanted to talk a little bit about the group booking pace. You guys said early in your prepared remarks you were up for the remainder of the year; that is obviously a pretty strong number. You also had mentioned that one of the benefits of the group booking pace is an ability to have more transient pricing power.

我只是想簡單談談團體預訂的速度。你們在事先準備好的發言稿中就提到，你們今年的勝算很大；這顯然是一個非常強勁的數字。您還提到，團體預訂的優勢之一是能夠擁有更大的臨時定價權。

I guess the two questions I had was last quarter you had mentioned 2Q was a big acceleration in group base, I think plus 2% for 1Q versus plus 9% for 2Q. I am wondering if that is still the case. if you are still a plus 9% or if things have moderated a little bit for 2Q as we have gotten closer?

我想問的兩個問題是，上個季度您提到第二季度集團基數大幅增長，我認為第一季增長了 2%，而第二季度增長了 9%。我想知道現在情況是否仍然如此。如果你的收益率仍然保持在 9% 以上，或者隨著第二季度臨近，收益率有所回落，情況是否有所緩和？

And then the second thing is how are you guys thinking about the impact that your strong group booking pace will have on transient pricing power? Is there any way to try to quantify that?

其次，你們如何看待強勁的團體預訂速度對散客定價權的影響？有沒有辦法量化這種現象？

Yes, so the -- a couple of things. I think our Q2 pace is probably down a little from that 9% but still in the high-single-digits 7%-ish. And Q3 would be in the mid-double-digits, so pretty healthy.

是的，所以——有幾件事。我認為我們第二季的成長速度可能會比 9% 略有下降，但仍保持在 7% 左右的高個位數水準。第三季預計成長兩位數中段，相當不錯。

There is a -- be careful about assuming that that is an awful development. When we start a year with high group bookings it leaves a little bit less room for in the year for the year group bookings. And as a consequence we often see the full-year number sort of moderate as the year goes along and that is not a sign of weakness.

需要注意的是──不要想當然地認為這是一個糟糕的發展。如果年初團體預訂量很高，那麼一年中留給團體預訂的空間就會稍微少一些。因此，我們經常看到全年數字隨著時間的推移趨於平穩，但這並不是疲軟的跡象。

The other thing that is really important to bear in mind here is that the group business has the most power to help with pricing of a hotel in high occupancy high demand months. So group business being up significantly in January, which is a relatively quiet month, or December which is a relatively quiet month, is going to be much less impactful in driving rates than in non-holiday impacted weeks and months like March, April, May, September, October, first half of November.

這裡要記住的另一點是，團體業務在飯店入住率高、需求量大的月份，對飯店定價擁有最大的影響力。因此，1 月（相對淡季）或 12 月（相對淡季）團體業務大幅成長，對推高房價的影響遠小於 3 月、4 月、5 月、9 月、10 月、11 月上半月等非假日期間的影響。

And so, we think we have got, again, in a number of these times the group business should be more powerful in helping us drive rate in the transient space.

因此，我們認為，在許多情況下，集團業務應該更有力地幫助我們推動散客領域的價格上漲。

All right, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thomas Allen, Morgan Stanley.

Thomas Allen，摩根士丹利。

Just on the pipeline growth, you've been consistently growing your pipeline by about 10,000 rooms a quarter. The first quarter was slightly (inaudible), just trying to understand if that was related to seasonality or some of the financing issues, Arne, you mentioned earlier. Or has there been any reluctance from developers to build your brands given the Starwood deal? Thanks.

僅就專案儲備成長而言，你們每季持續成長約 10,000 間客房。第一季略有（聽不清楚），我只是想了解這是否與季節性因素或你之前提到的一些融資問題有關，Arne。或者，鑑於喜達屋的交易，開發商是否對打造你們的品牌有所顧慮？謝謝。

The answer to the last part of the question is no. The pace seems to be steady for us. Remember one of the things, it is probably obvious to you, we tend to talk about our pipeline in round-ish numbers, 5,000 room increments usually as opposed to giving you the single number that we have in our pipeline, for the obvious reason that we can only be so accurate in our pipeline.

問題最後一部分的答案是否定的。我們的節奏似乎很穩定。記住一件事，這可能對你來說很明顯，我們傾向於用大約 5000 間客房的增量來談論我們的管道，而不是給你我們管道中的單個數字，原因很明顯，因為我們的管道的精確度只能達到一定程度。

I think one of the things that happens in Q1 is you end up because of some rounding probably with a growth that is more in the 5,000 to 10,000 room range than exactly 5,000 or below 5,000. And so, that is what has driven it. We are seeing steady performance.

我認為第一季出現的情況之一是，由於四捨五入，最終的成長可能在 5,000 到 10,000 間客房之間，而不是正好 5,000 間或低於 5,000 間。這就是推動它發展的原因。我們看到業績穩定。

You heard the prepared comments about debt markets being a little tougher in the early part of the year. I suspect as a consequence that particularly some of the more urban, more full scale, full service projects which are typically done with nonrecourse debt financing as opposed to a guaranteed borrower.

你們都聽到了事先準備好的評論，說今年年初債務市場會比較艱難。因此，我懷疑一些更偏向城市化、規模更大、服務更全面的項目，通常採用無追索權債務融資，而不是由擔保借款人進行融資。

Those debt markets are a little tougher today. And as a consequence I suspect we will see some projects pull back, but I don't think it is going to be significant for Marriott because of the strength of our brands.

現今的債券市場情勢略顯嚴峻。因此，我懷疑一些項目將會撤回，但我認為這對萬豪酒店集團的影響不會很大，因為我們品牌的實力雄厚。

Okay and just my follow-up. Can you give us updated thinking by region on your 2016 RevPAR outlook? Thanks.

好的，我再補充一點。您能否按地區提供您對2016年RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）的最新展望？謝謝。

Stronger in the West, weakest in the oil patch -- positive but probably not hugely positive in markets like New York. I think if then you go to the rest of the world we are all watching for Zika in the Caribbean and Latin America and that could have had a few points of RevPAR impact to us in Q1 in that region. It will certainly have a few points of impact at least if not a bit more in Q2. And we will see how that story plays out over the balance of the year.

西部地區表現強勁，石油地區表現最弱——利好紐約等市場，但可能不是非常利多。我認為，如果放眼世界其他地區，我們都在關注加勒比海和拉丁美洲的寨卡病毒疫情，這可能會對我們第一季在該地區的收入造成一些影響。它肯定會在第二季產生一些影響，至少會有一些影響，甚至可能影響更大。接下來，我們將拭​​目以待，看看這個故事在今年剩餘的時間裡會如何發展。

Obviously Mexico, that strength we expect to continue. Brazil, other than the Olympics, we wouldn't expect a lot of robustness from. You get to Asia-Pacific I think is going to continue to perform well based on the trends that we have talked about. Middle East because of Ramadan will look weak in Q2; I think it will do better in Q3 and Q4.

顯然，我們預計墨西哥的這種強勁勢頭將會持續下去。除了奧運之外，我們不會指望巴西有太多的實力。我認為，根據我們討論過的趨勢，亞太地區將繼續保持良好的表現。受齋戒月影響，中東地區第二季經濟表現疲軟；我認為第三季和第四季會有所改善。

There are important things that need to happen there. I did an interview with Arab -- Arabian Hotel investment conference yesterday by videoconference. And for example Egypt has got to do more on airport safety I think before it gets a lot of European aircraft coming back into the resort markets but even to some extent Cairo.

那裡有一些重要的事情需要處理。昨天我透過視訊會議接受了阿拉伯酒店投資會議的訪問。例如，我認為埃及必須在機場安全方面做得更多，才能吸引大量歐洲飛機重返度假市場，甚至在某種程度上，開羅也需要加強機場安全。

In Europe we were pleasantly surprised in Q1. Obviously the Brussels tragedy took place very late in Q1; that is going to have a more negative impact in Q2 than it did for Q1. But at the moment it feels Brussels and Paris focused in terms of weakness as opposed to Europe as a whole. So we would expect to continue to see positive sort of low- to mid-single-digit RevPAR growth in that market.

第一季度，我們在歐洲的表現令人驚訝。顯然，布魯塞爾的悲劇發生在第一季末；這將對第二季產生比第一季更大的負面影響。但目前看來，布魯塞爾和巴黎似乎更關注自身的弱點，而不是整個歐洲的弱點。因此，我們預計該市場將繼續保持低至中等個位數的RevPAR成長。

Very helpful, thank you.

非常有用，謝謝。

David Katz, Telsey Group.

David Katz，Telsey集團。

So, I wanted to ask about the structure of management contracts that you will be acquiring from Starwood. I think over time we get a sense for the rhythm of incentive fees and how that kind of rolls for your Company. But what does that look like for Starwood and will you be making some major changes in those as you acquire properties and shift them from your own from an owned portfolio into a managed portfolio? And then I have one quick follow-up.

所以，我想問一下您將從喜達屋收購的管理合約的結構情況。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會逐漸了解激勵費用的節奏以及它對貴公司的影響。但對於喜達屋來說，這意味著什麼？隨著您收購房產並將其從自有投資組合轉移到管理投資組合，您是否會做出一些重大改變？最後我還有一個簡短的後續問題。

Will we be making changes in the management contracts or in our approach to disclosure, what are you asking?

您問的是我們是否會改變管理合約或資訊揭露方式？

I'm essentially asking are their management contracts different structurally from yours.

我其實是想問，他們的管理合約在結構上是否與你們的有所不同。

We don't think so. Starwood has been a very thoughtful and thorough manager we think. We have -- occasionally because management contracts get filed in SEC filings by either hotel owners or by brand companies we have had some insight into specific management contracts. And generally the structures are the same and the rights and obligations of Starwood seem to be comparable to those of ours.

我們不這麼認為。我們認為喜達屋一直是一位非常周到細緻的管理者。我們偶爾會因為飯店業主或品牌公司向美國證券交易委員會提交管理合約文件，而對具體的管理合約有所了解。總的來說，雙方的組織結構相同，喜達屋的權利和義務似乎與我們相當。

Starwood is -- because they skew a little bit more full-service than we do, they also skew a little bit more towards managed as opposed to franchise than we do, which will make this a more relevant question I think in terms of the incentive fee performance.

喜達屋酒店集團——因為他們比我們更偏向全方位服務，也比我們更偏向管理式酒店而不是特許經營酒店，我認為這將使這個問題在激勵費用表現方面更具相關性。

We obviously can't give you any sense really on what their incentive fee growth could be year over year; we have got some assumptions in our model but we don't have any detailed inside view on that yet. But we would think generally it is going to be about the same. Obviously we think their biggest owner is our biggest owner as well in Host. And I think the structure of those deals, as far as we know, is very similar.

我們顯然無法準確預測他們的激勵費用逐年增長；我們的模型中有一些假設，但我們目前還沒有任何詳細的內部資訊。但我們認為整體而言，結果應該差不多。顯然，我們認為他們的最大股東也是我們Host公司的最大股東。據我們所知，這些交易的結構非常相似。

Got it. And if I can -- I assume it counts if I follow up someone else's question, but on the subject of RevPAR growth, over the years we have talked about a point at which, all other things being equal, you are effectively profit or earnings neutral. And that RevPAR growth number is something greater than zero, as I recall it was something in the 3% range.

知道了。如果可以的話——我想如果我回覆別人的問題也算數，但關於RevPAR增長，多年來我們一直在討論這樣一個點：在其他條件相同的情況下，達到這個點後，利潤或收益實際上會趨於中性。我記得當時RevPAR成長率大於零，大概在3%左右。

As we move into next year, if one were to assume that RevPAR growth moderates, where do you expect that number to be for Marriott as it stands today and the combined Company? How does that -- where are you sort of profit neutral irrespective of any unit growth or other dynamics?

展望明年，如果假設每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的成長放緩，您預計萬豪酒店集團目前的 RevPAR 以及合併後公司的 RevPAR 會達到多少？這樣如何實現－無論單位成長或其他因素如何變化，你的利潤都能保持中性？

Let's break it down here. You have got a -- the core question there is most [app] with respect to the hotel level economics. And we will talk about Marriott's P&L in a minute. And you are absolutely right. We have tended to say RevPAR in the 2% to 3% range is typically what is necessary in order to maintain flat profit margins in percentage terms, which would mean that dollars of profit at the hotel level would be up 2% to 3% just as the revenue line itself was up.

讓我們來詳細分析一下。你有一個——核心問題是，就酒店層面的經濟而言，這最為重要[應用程式]。我們稍後會談到萬豪酒店的損益表。您說得完全正確。我們通常認為，為了保持利潤率在百分比上保持不變，RevPAR 通常需要保持在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內，這意味著酒店層面的利潤將增長 2% 到 3%，就像收入本身增長一樣。

Look at Q1 our actual results and we have got the 2.4-ish RevPAR growth, but hotel level margins up 90 basis points around the world. And that is a tribute to our operating team who continues to find a way to improve margins even with fairly modest RevPAR growth. So in that kind of environment we saw -- in an actual Q1 we saw quite modest RevPAR growth and hotel level profit growth on average going up more like the 4% to 5% range as opposed to the 2.5% RevPAR growth.

看看我們第一季的實際業績，RevPAR 成長了約 2.4%，但全球飯店層面的利潤率提高了 90 個基點。這要歸功於我們的營運團隊，即使每間可供出租客房收入成長相當有限，他們仍然不斷尋找提高利潤率的方法。因此，在這種環境下，我們看到——在實際的第一季度，我們看到RevPAR成長相當溫和，飯店層級的利潤成長平均在4%到5%之間，而不是2.5%的RevPAR成長。

I think when you look forward it is going to vary significantly market by market. US labor costs obviously are going to continue to rise. Some of this will be driven by politics and other things. I think much more of it will be driven by the labor -- the tightness of the labor market and the tighter it gets the more likely to see wage growth move.

我認為展望未來，不同市場的情況會有很大差異。美國的勞動成本顯然會持續上漲。其中一些因素是由政治和其他因素所驅動的。我認為薪資成長很大程度上將受勞動市場緊張程度的影響——勞動市場越緊張，薪資成長就越有可能放緩。

I would think we are likely to see 3% to 4%, maybe 3% to 5% wage growth in the US in the next couple of years and as a consequence you are going to still need that 2% to 3% RevPAR growth to get sort of flattish margins.

我認為未來幾年美國薪資成長率可能會達到 3% 到 4%，甚至 3% 到 5%，因此，為了保持相對平穩的利潤率，RevPAR 仍然需要 2% 到 3%。

For Marriott by comparison we have got a number of different drivers. We have got the top line, which is going to be driven by that same store RevPAR growth. We've got the incentive fees which are a share of them -- hopefully growing profits at the hotel. And then significantly we have got both the unit growth, which is entirely incremental to that and the impact of what we do with the capital that we produce.

相比之下，萬豪酒店則有許多不同的驅動因素。我們已經掌握了營收成長的驅動力，而營收成長將主要來自門市每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的成長。我們有激勵費用，這是其中的一部分——希望能夠提高酒店的利潤。此外，我們也看到了單位成長（這完全是在此基礎上增加的）以及我們利用所創造的資本所產生的影響。

And so all of those things I think would cause our fee growth to be significantly higher than whatever the RevPAR growth is in the market. I think simply if you have got 3% to 5% same store RevPAR growth and food and beverage is growing at the same pace we ought to see base and franchise fees grow at that amount for existing hotels plus some upside because of incentive fees. And then in addition to that the unit growth, which we are talking about at 7% net of the units that we lose. That is a long answer to a short question. Sorry about that.

因此，我認為所有這些因素都會導致我們的費用成長遠高於市場上的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長。我認為，如果同店RevPAR成長3%到5%，餐飲業務也以同樣的速度成長，那麼現有飯店的基本費用和加盟費用應該會以同樣的幅度成長，再加上激勵費用帶來的額外成長。此外，還有單位成長率，我們說的是扣除損失的單位後，淨成長率為 7%。這是一個簡短問題的長篇回答。抱歉。

No, it is actually a good answer and an important one. Thank you very much.

不，這其實是一個很好的答案，而且是一個很重要的答案。非常感謝。

David Loeb, Baird Capital.

David Loeb，貝爾德資本。

Arne, I kind of want to hit on the topic you've been talking about since the very first question but from a different perspective. What do you think is going on in corporations that is leading to pretty strong group business and good group ancillary spend, but transient -- relative transient weakness?

Arne，我想從另一個角度談談你從第一個問題就開始談論的話題。您認為企業中發生了什麼，導致集團業務和集團輔助支出相當強勁，但同時又出現暫時的——相對的暫時性疲軟？

Well, again, that is where we come to this -- it's probably a bad metaphor, but this notion of a number of different short stories that don't have the same author. I don't think at the moment it is clear that this is a macroeconomic thing. I think this is instead a collection of stories that are driven by individual company dynamics. And I am not going to name companies because these are great partners of ours and I don't want to be trying to tell their stories publicly.

嗯，這就引出了這個問題——這可能是一個糟糕的比喻，但這個概念指的是許多不同的短篇小說並非出自同一作者之手。我認為目前還不能明確判斷這是否屬於宏觀經濟問題。我認為這實際上是一系列由各個公司內部動態驅動的故事。我不會點名這些公司，因為它們都是我們優秀的合作夥伴，我不想公開講述它們的故事。

But when you read the press you can see a number of big companies who are reducing headcount because of struggle to grow top line. You can see a number of big companies that have got activist shareholders that are forcing some focus on margins.

但當你閱讀新聞報導時，你會發現許多大公司因為難以實現營收成長而裁員。你可以看到許多大公司都有激進的股東，他們正在迫使公司更關注利潤率。

But then you see a number of companies that are growing robustly. And a number of players in broad parts of the US economy across industries, think about the accounting firms and the consulting firms and banks and some of those things. And what you hear from them is a level of economic activity that seems steady and that causes them to be fairly optimistic.

但你也會看到一些公司發展勢頭強勁。在美國經濟的各個領域，許多行業的參與者，例如會計師事務所、顧問公司、銀行等等，都受到了影響。從他們那裡了解到，經濟活動水準似乎保持穩定，這讓他們相當樂觀。

And as a consequence I think we end up with different RevPAR performance in different cities. And I think to the extent those stories are accurate, they tend to have a more pronounced impact on the short-term, meaning transient, than they do on the long-term, meaning group.

因此，我認為不同城市的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）表現會有所不同。我認為，如果這些報道屬實，它們對短期（即短暫的）影響往往比對長期（即群體）影響更為顯著。

Because as long as those companies are still performing well, which generally they are, they are going to hold that annual meeting. They are going to make their commitments for what they need to do to launch their new products or to bring all of their customers together. And as a consequence they are going to hold the meeting that was booked a year ago or two years ago and they are going to book today the meeting that they expect to have a year or two from now.

因為只要這些公司業績良好（通常情況下它們確實如此），它們就會召開年度股東大會。他們將做出承諾，說明為了推出新產品或將所有客戶聚集在一起，他們需要做些什麼。因此，他們將召開一年前或兩年前預定的會議，並且今天還將預定他們預計一兩年後舉行的會議。

On a related note, the CEO of an ownership company said we are in or approaching a downturn in the industry. Do you see that?

另外，一家所有權公司的執行長表示，我們正處於或即將進入行業低迷期。你看到了嗎？

I don't see that. I think there has never been a supply induced downturn. I shouldn't say never. I am most familiar going back to maybe the early 1990s, so think about whatever that is, 25 years I suppose. There has not been a supply induced downturn in our industry, which means in effect that there has not been a industry induced downturn in our industry.

我沒看到這一點。我認為從來沒有出現過供應過剩導致的經濟衰退。我不該把話說死。我最熟悉的時期大概可以追溯到90年代初，所以想想那大概是25年前吧。我們的產業沒有出現供應導致的下滑，這意味著實際上我們的產業也沒有出現產業本身導致的下滑。

What causes a downturn is a meaningful change in the demand environment. And that change is not going to occur unless we have a meaningful change in GDP growth and economic growth around the world, period. And so, that means for us and for all of you we have got to go back and say, okay, what do we think GDP is going to do in the quarters ahead.

經濟衰退的根本原因是需求環境發生了重大變化。除非全球GDP成長和經濟成長發生實質變化，否則這種改變不會發生，就這麼簡單。所以，這意味著對我們和你們所有人來說，我們都必須回過頭來說，好吧，我們認為未來幾季的 GDP 將會如何變化。

And the more pessimistic about that you are, the more pessimistic you should be about this industry because we are not going to drive -- yeah, okay, we want to outperform and we will outperform, we did in the first quarter on RevPAR index. But by and large we are not going to be able to grow demand if economic activity is contracting because that will cause demand broadly to decline.

你對此越悲觀，就越應該對這個行業感到悲觀，因為我們不會——好吧，我們想要超越市場，而且我們也會超越市場，我們在第一季的RevPAR指數上就做到了。但總的來說，如果經濟活動萎縮，我們就無法增加需求，因為這將導致需求整體下降。

That is helpful, thank you.

這很有幫助，謝謝。

Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research.

Vince Ciepiel，克里夫蘭研究公司。

I wanted to dig a little bit more in the group. You mentioned that those corporates are still booking those group meetings. And on prior calls I think you have noted group production in the quarter for future periods up 10% and 7% the last two quarters. Did you see a similar level of kind of production growth in the first quarter? And then also kind of 2017 and 2018 I think were noted to be pacing up high-singles, is that still the case?

我想更深入地了解這個群體。你提到那些公司仍在預訂這些團體會議。在先前的電話會議中，我認為您已經提到，集團未來幾季的產量分別成長了 10% 和 7%，這是過去兩季的增幅。第一季是否也出現了類似水準的產量成長？另外，2017 年和 2018 年似乎也出現了高價單曲的趨勢，現在情況仍然如此嗎？

Yes. I think when you look at bookings in Q1 for all future periods we were up about 5% compared to last year. And -- but we for 2017 and 2018 would have been up sort of twice that level. And so that is a bit lower. Now to be fair we had very robust growth in the first quarter of 2015 and strong growth in group bookings in the first quarter of [2014]. And I actually think built on that growth this is a good respectable number going forward.

是的。我認為，從第一季到未來所有時期的預訂量來看，我們比去年同期成長了約 5%。但是——但我們2017年和2018年的收入應該是這個水準的兩倍左右。所以這個數值稍微低一些。公平地說，我們在 2015 年第一季實現了非常強勁的成長，並且在 2014 年第一季團體預訂方面也實現了強勁成長。而且我認為，基於這種成長勢頭，這將是一個相當不錯且值得期待的未來數字。

Great. And then on a different topic on leverage and capital returns. You mentioned that you plan to get back to repurchasing once the targeted leverage levels are reached. On prior calls I think you threw out a few hundred million of potential share repurchase in 4Q, is that still the current thinking?

偉大的。然後我們又談到了槓桿和資本回報這個話題。您提到一旦達到目標槓桿水平，您就計劃恢復回購。在之前的電話會議中，我記得您提到第四季度可能有數億美元的股票回購計劃，目前您的想法是否仍然如此？

Yes, that is about right.

是的，差不多就是這樣。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Patrick Scholes, SunTrust.

Patrick Scholes，SunTrust銀行。

Quick -- well, I wondered if you could help me clarify something here. And I may have -- I apologize, I may have misheard some of your commentary earlier in the call. But I thought I heard that you are not expecting a dramatically different environment for the rest of the year.

快點——嗯，我想請你幫我澄清一下這件事。我可能會——很抱歉，我可能在通話早些時候聽錯了您的一些評論。但我好像聽說，你預計今年餘下的時間環境不會發生巨大變化。

However, when I run the math to get to that high end of your 3% to 5% range it implies a material uptick in RevPAR in the magnitude of 6.5% growth for the back half. Am I -- how do I reconcile sort of those two different items? Did I miss hear?

然而，當我計算出達到您所說的 3% 到 5% 範圍的高端時，這意味著下半年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將大幅增長，增幅約為 6.5%。我該如何調和這兩個不同的概念呢？我錯過了什麼嗎？

That's a good question. I mean the commentary really is about the underlying strength in demand. And think about that as the transient business. I think we see -- we see continued modest growth in transient demand based on modest GDP growth and with it some pricing power.

這是個好問題。我的意思是，評論的重點其實在於潛在需求的強勁勢頭。把這當作是一種短暫的生意。我認為我們看到——我們看到基於溫和的GDP成長以及隨之而來的一定定價能力的短期需求將繼續溫和成長。

I think we do have a group dynamic as well though that overlays this and that is, to some extent, moving a little bit independently from what is happening in the demand environment because it has got a longer lead time. And as we have talked about before, we have got a Q2 and Q3 group that is more robust than Q1. A big piece of that is Easter but that is not the only piece of that, part of that is just the vicissitudes of the group booking cycle if you will.

我認為我們也存在著一種團體動力，它疊加在這一點之上，在某種程度上，這種動力與需求環境的變化有些獨立，因為它的提前期更長。正如我們之前討論過的，我們的第二季和第三季團隊比第一季團隊更穩健。復活節是主要原因之一，但這並不是唯一原因，一部分原因在於團體預訂週期的變化。

And so, when we roll those things together we suspect we will have a stronger headline RevPAR number obviously in the balance of the year than we did in the first quarter of the year. We were below the 3% in the first quarter of the year. So it goes by -- sort of by definition of that that way.

因此，綜合考慮這些因素，我們預計今年剩餘時間的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）數據將明顯高於第一季。今年第一季度，我們的成長率低於3%。所以，從某種意義上來說，就是按照這個定義來的。

But again, that would be a reflection more of a group and normalizing of the holiday time than a characterization by us that it depends on a dramatically more healthy underlying economy than the sort of 2% GDP number which we assume to be the case.

但話說回來，這更多地反映了某種群體對假期的習慣和正常化，而不是我們認為假期依賴於比我們假設的 2% 的 GDP 增長幅度要健康得多的潛在經濟。

Okay. Follow-up question, what was your group RevPAR result growth rate for 1Q?

好的。後續問題，貴公司第一季的RevPAR成長率是多少？

Low-single-digits -- about the same as our RevPAR as a whole. And again, there you have got -- you've got to remember you have got Easter there which is going to have a pronounced impact particularly on group.

低個位數－與我們整體的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）大致相同。還有一點，你要記住，復活節將至，這將對團體產生顯著影響。

Okay, I guess --.

好吧，我想——。

I don't have the numbers in front of me, but my guess is January and February our group RevPAR was higher than the transient RevPAR. And then because of March and Easter we end up essentially giving some of that back and ending up more or less in the same place.

我手邊沒有具體數據，但我估計一月和二月我們集團的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）高於臨時RevPAR。然後，由於三月和復活節的緣故，我們最終又不得不把一部分收益退還回去，最終結果或多或少還是回到了原來的狀態。

Okay. And again, I could be wrong here. When I run the math on your group RevPAR expectation for quarters two to four versus your previous guidance back in February it would seem that group pace has come down from about 7% to 5.5%. Is that correct that we have seen deceleration?

好的。當然，我也可能錯了。當我計算您集團第二季至第四季的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 預期與您二月份的先前指引相比時，集團增速似乎已從約 7% 降至 5.5%。我們已經觀察到減速現象，這種說法正確嗎？

Order of magnitude that is right.

數量級沒錯。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

As Arne pointed out before, you should actually expect that to happen as you move through the year when a year ago you could be doing in the year for the year booking. So it's to some extent -- some of it is as you move through the year you would expect that to happen.

正如 Arne 之前指出的那樣，隨著時間的推移，你應該預料到這種情況會發生，而一年前你可能還在進行年度預訂。所以在某種程度上——隨著時間的推移，你會預料到這種情況會發生。

Understood, thank you.

明白了，謝謝。

Okay. Any other questions in the queue?

好的。還有其他問題嗎？

There are no further questions at this time, sir.

先生，目前沒有其他問題了。

All right. Well, we thank you all for your time and attention this morning and, as always, look forward to welcoming you into our hotels as you travel. Be well.

好的。感謝各位今天上午抽出寶貴時間關注我們的活動，我們將一如既往地期待您在旅途中入住我們的酒店。祝您健康。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。