萬豪國際 (MAR) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Marriott International's 2016 fourth-quarter and year-end earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的耐心等待，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2016年第四季及全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to hand our program over to Mr. Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Marriott International. Sir, the floor is yours.

現在，我很高興將我們的節目交給萬豪國際集團總裁兼執行長阿恩·索倫森先生。先生，請您發言。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director Investor Relations.

謝謝。各位早安。歡迎參加我們2016年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg；高級副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Laura Paugh；以及高級總監兼投資者關係主管 Betsy Dahm。

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical fact and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed and/or implied by our comments.

在正式開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中表達和/或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night along with our comments today are effective only today, February 16, 2017, and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks on our website at www.Marriott.com/investor.

我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們今天發表的評論僅在今天（2017 年 2 月 16 日）有效，不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。您可以造訪我們的網站 www.Marriott.com/investor，查看我們在聲明中提到的非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。

Before jumping into our results and guidance, let me acknowledge the obvious. We've thrown a great deal of information at you in our press release and in the form 8k we filed late yesterday.

在深入探討我們的結果和指導方針之前，讓我先說明一個顯而易見的事實。我們在新聞稿和昨天晚些時候提交的 8-K 表格中向您提供了大量資訊。

Collectively, we're challenged by two things. First, the need to bring two companies together and create a baseline for all of us to have to compare our guidance and then results against the past.

我們共同面臨兩方面的挑戰。首先，我們需要將兩家公司聚集在一起，建立一個基準，以便我們所有人都能將我們的指導和結果與過去進行比較。

Second, in the first year or so we'll have a number of incomparable or transitional matters, especially around integration costs and the speed with which we capture the G&A and other synergies post merger. These factors make 2017 a bit noisy.

其次，在合併後的第一年左右，我們將面臨許多無法比較或過渡性的問題，尤其是在整合成本以及合併後實現一般及行政費用和其他協同效應的速度方面。這些因素使得2017年有些動盪不安。

We'll do everything we can to help you understand the underlying results and to help you build your models. Thank you for your patience as we work through this together.

我們將盡一切努力幫助您理解背後的結果，並幫助您建立模型。感謝您在我們共同努力解決此事期間的耐心等待。

We were very pleased with our performance in 2016. We purchased Starwood Hotels and Resorts on September 23, linked our loyalty programs, Marriott Rewards, Ritz-Carlton Rewards and Starwood Preferred Guest, on the same day, and immediately began the work to realize synergies in the combination. On a combined basis we grew system-wide rooms by more than 5% net in 2016, increased worldwide constant dollar RevPAR by 2%, and increased EPS by 16%.

我們對2016年的表現非常滿意。我們於 9 月 23 日收購了喜達屋酒店及度假村集團，並在同一天將我們的忠誠度計劃——萬豪禮賞、麗思卡爾頓禮賞和喜達屋優先顧客計劃——整合在一起，並立即開始著手實現合併後的協同效應。2016 年，我們系統內的客房數量淨增長超過 5%，全球以固定匯率計算的每間可供出租客房收入增長了 2%，每股收益增長了 16%。

We're also excited about our prospects for 2017. We expect to grow rooms by 6% net, and we anticipate returning $1.5 billion to $2 billion to shareholders in dividends and share repurchases during the year, with likely upside from asset sales. Our RevPAR and unit growth guidance implies an impressive 15% to 20% EPS growth in 2017 compared to combined 2016 results.

我們對2017年的前景也感到非常興奮。我們預計客房數量淨增長 6%，並預計年內將透過股息和股票回購向股東返還 15 億至 20 億美元，資產出售可能帶來額外收益。我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 和單位增長預期表明，與 2016 年的綜合業績相比，2017 年每股收益 (EPS) 將實現令人矚目的 15% 至 20% 的增長。

Let's talk about the fourth quarter of 2016. Fourth-quarter North American system-wide RevPAR rose 1.1%, just above guidance. RevPAR growth was strong in Washington, Atlanta, Toronto, and Montreal.

我們來談談2016年第四季的情況。第四季北美系統整體RevPAR成長1.1%，略高於預期。華盛頓、亞特蘭大、多倫多和蒙特婁的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）成長強勁。

Leisure business remained healthy across the system, particularly in our luxury brands. Overall North American retail transient RevPAR rose 5% in the quarter.

整個系統的休閒業務保持健康發展，尤其是我們的奢侈品牌。本季北美零售業臨時客源RevPAR整體成長5%。

For our corporate customers, sales to Legacy Marriott's 300 largest corporate customers in North America rose 1%. You may recall sales to these customers were flat in the third quarter. While sales to energy and financial customers continued to weaken, we were pleased that our sales to manufacturers strengthened, increasing 4% in the fourth quarter.

對於我們的企業客戶，向 Legacy Marriott 在北美的 300 家最大企業客戶銷售的金額增加了 1%。您可能還記得，第三季對這些客戶的銷售額持平。儘管對能源和金融客戶的銷售額持續下降，但我們很高興地看到，對製造商的銷售額有所增強，第四季度增長了 4%。

Group RevPAR at North American hotels declined 1% in the fourth quarter. Much of this was due to the calendar comparison, as the shift in Jewish holidays pushed group business into the third quarter. Thus profit margins for Company operated hotels in North America increased an impressive 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, despite Company RevPAR being up only 0.5%.

北美飯店集團每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）第四季下降了1%。這主要是由於日曆比較造成的，因為猶太節日的調整將團體業務推到了第三季。因此，儘管該公司每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 僅增長了 0.5%，但該公司在北美運營的酒店利潤率在第四季度卻實現了令人矚目的 50 個基點的增長。

Looking ahead to 2017, we continue to expect a steady as she goes economy in North America. For the 2017 full year, North America group revenue pace for Company operated full-service hotels across the combined portfolio is currently up about 3%. Roughly 80% of special corporate business for 2017 is already priced at a low single-digit rate increase for comparable customers, but we're also signing up more accounts.

展望2017年，我們持續預期北美經濟將維持穩定成長。2017 年全年，該公司在北美地區營運的全服務飯店集團的營收成長率目前約為 3%。2017 年約 80% 的特殊企業業務定價已按個位數低位漲幅計算，但我們仍在不斷增加客戶數量。

We continue to aggressively market to leisure guests, and we're adding contract business at attractive rates. At the same time we continue to see modest levels of corporate transient demand, and somewhat hesitant short-term group bookings. Therefore for 2017 we still expect North America RevPAR for the combined portfolio will be flat to up 2%.

我們持續積極開拓休閒旅客市場，並以優惠的價格增加合約業務。同時，我們看到企業短期住宿需求依然保持溫和水平，短期團體預訂也略顯猶豫。因此，我們仍預期 2017 年北美合併投資組合的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將持平或成長 2%。

The obvious first question of course is, do we feel more optimistic about 2017 than we did a quarter ago? The short answer is yes.

當然，第一個顯而易見的問題是，我們對 2017 年的前景是否比一個季度前更樂觀？簡而言之，答案是肯定的。

There is considerable data that shows broad expectations for stronger GDP growth in 2017. We have always completed our budget since our last quarterly call, giving us greater confidence in our range than we had before.

大量數據顯示，人們普遍預期2017年GDP成長將更加強勁。自從上次季度電話會議以來，我們一直按計劃完成預算，這使我們對自身的業績範圍比以前更有信心。

A somewhat longer answer to the question starts with our data. Looking at group booking trends and special corporate negotiations, and of course at Marriott and industry RevPAR data, we do not yet have clear enough proof that GDP is in fact growing at a higher rate or that the greater prevailing optimism is impacting our business. For this reason we have left our guidance for North American RevPAR at 0% to 2% for 2017, consistent with the budgets that roll up from our properties.

要對這個問題給予更詳細的回答，首先要從我們的數據說起。從團體預訂趨勢和特殊企業談判，以及萬豪酒店和行業RevPAR數據來看，我們目前還沒有足夠明確的證據表明GDP實際上正在以更高的速度增長，或者這種普遍存在的樂觀情緒正在影響我們的業務。因此，我們2017年北美RevPAR的預期仍為0%至2%，這與我們旗下物業的預算一致。

Outside North America, RevPAR in the Caribbean and Latin American region declined 3% in the quarter, reflecting weak economic conditions in much of the region and continued anxiety about the Zika virus in the Caribbean. For 2017 we're modeling a low single-digit percent increase in RevPAR in the region. We expect strong economic growth in Mexico, modest economic growth in Brazil, and improvement in the Zika situation in the Caribbean.

除了北美以外，加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在本季度下降 3%，反映出該地區大部分地區的經濟狀況疲軟，以及加勒比海地區對寨卡病毒的持續擔憂。我們預計 2017 年該地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以個位數百分比的速度成長。我們預期墨西哥經濟成長強勁，巴西經濟成長溫和，加勒比海地區的寨卡疫情將有所改善。

In the Middle East and Africa region, fourth-quarter RevPAR declined 1%, constrained by a tough oil market, lower government spending, new hotel supply, and concerns about political unrest offset a bit by stronger results in South Africa and Cairo. For 2017 we are modeling flattish RevPAR growth for that total region.

中東和非洲地區第四季度每間可供出租客房收入下降了 1%，受到石油市場疲軟、政府支出減少、新增酒店供應以及對政治動蕩的擔憂等因素的製約，但南非和開羅的強勁表現在一定程度上抵消了這些不利影響。我們預計 2017 年該地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長將趨於平穩。

Fourth-quarter RevPAR in the Asia Pacific region increased 1%. RevPAR was strong in India, Shanghai, and Malaysia, while RevPAR was weaker in Hong Kong, Macau, and tertiary China markets. For 2017 we expect our Asia Pacific region should see strength in India, Indonesia, Thailand, and Australia, more than offsetting weakness in the Macau and South China markets, yielding a RevPAR increase at a low to mid-single-digit rate.

亞太地區第四季每間可供出租客房收入成長1%。RevPAR 在印度、上海和馬來西亞表現強勁，而在香港、澳門和中國三線城市市場則表現疲軟。2017 年，我們預計亞太地區的印度、印尼、泰國和澳洲市場將表現強勁，足以抵消澳門和華南市場的疲軟，使每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 實現個位數低至中等的成長。

Finally for Europe, fourth-quarter RevPAR increased 2% with strength in the UK, Germany, Spain and Russia somewhat offset by continued weakness in Paris, Brussels, and Istanbul. For 2017 we expect a low single-digit RevPAR growth with stronger results expected in Southern Europe and easier comparisons in Paris and Brussels. All in all, we expect worldwide system-wide RevPAR will increase 0.5% to 2.5% in 2017, a bit more bullish than our guidance in November.

最後，歐洲第四季每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 2%，英國、德國、西班牙和俄羅斯的強勁表現被巴黎、布魯塞爾和伊斯坦堡的持續疲軟所部分抵消。2017 年，我們預計每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將實現個位數低增長，南歐地區的業績預計會更強勁，而巴黎和布魯塞爾的業績比較基數較小。總而言之，我們預計 2017 年全球系統平均每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長 0.5% 至 2.5%，比我們 11 月的預測略顯樂觀。

Owners and franchisees are pleased with the performance of our brands and are developing more hotels under our flags. New owner and franchisee signings last year totaled 136,000 rooms, twice the level of gross room openings, taking our development pipeline to more than 420,000 rooms.

業主和加盟商對我們品牌的業績感到滿意，並正在開發更多我們旗下的酒店。去年新業主和加盟商簽約的總數量為 136,000 間客房，是客房總數的兩倍，使我們的開發儲備達到 420,000 多間客房。

If you look at deal approvals instead of signings, our 2016 results included almost 150,000 rooms. Congratulations to Tony Capuano and our development team around the world.

如果以交易批准數量而非簽約數量來衡量，我們 2016 年的業績包括近 15 萬間客房。恭喜托尼·卡普阿諾以及我們全球的開發團隊。

At year end the combined Marriott and Starwood brand portfolios accounted for just 14% of all industry rooms open in North America, yet according to STR we had an industry-leading 36% of rooms under construction in North America and 22% of rooms under construction worldwide. Financing for new construction remained tight and construction costs are increasing.

截至年底，萬豪和喜達屋品牌組合在北美已開業客房總數中僅佔 14%，但根據 STR 的數據，我們在北美的在建客房數量佔行業領先水平的 36%，在全球範圍內的在建客房數量佔行業領先水平的 22%。新建案的融資依然緊張，而建築成本卻不斷上漲。

While STR data for 2016 revealed a 33% increase in US industry rooms under construction, the data also show only a 10% increase in rooms in final planning. By the way, we have nearly a 40% share of those final planning rooms in the US. Developers are clearly favoring projects with strong brands.

雖然 STR 2016 年的數據顯示，美國正在建造的產業客房數量增加了 33%，但數據顯示，最終規劃中的客房數量僅增加了 10%。順便一提，我們在美國最終規劃室市場中佔了近 40% 的份額。開發商顯然更青睞擁有強大品牌的項目。

It's been 147 days since our acquisition of Starwood. Prior to the transaction completion, Marriott Rewards and Ritz-Carlton Rewards adopted several SPG firsts for Platinum Members including late check-out, upgrades, and concierge services. At transaction closing we immediately allowed guests to link their Marriott Rewards and Starwood Preferred Guest accounts.

自從我們收購喜達屋以來已經過了147天。在交易完成之前，萬豪禮賞和麗思卡爾頓禮賞為白金會員推出了多項SPG首創服務，包括延遲退房、客房升級和禮賓服務。交易完成後，我們立即允許客人關聯他們的萬豪禮賞和喜達屋優先顧客帳戶。

In September we launched our 30-brand worldwide advertising campaign. You may have heard the ads which we call You Are Here as you were awaiting the start of today's call. They're currently running in media markets around the world and can be viewed on Marriott's YouTube channel.

9月份，我們啟動了涵蓋30個品牌的全球廣告宣傳活動。在您等待今天電話會議開始的時候，您可能已經聽到了我們稱之為「您在這裡」的廣告。目前這些廣告正在世界各地的媒體市場播出，也可以在萬豪的 YouTube 頻道上觀看。

In October we announced an industry first benefit for holders of our cobrand credit cards, allowing them to earn bonus points for stays at hotels across all 30 brands. Our owners and franchisees are hearing from us often thanks to a robust communications platform established in November, and we are hearing from them as well as many are participating in new owner advisory boards.

10 月，我們宣布了一項業界首創的福利，持卡人可透過入住我們旗下所有 30 個品牌的飯店賺取獎勵積分。由於我們在 11 月建立了一個強大的溝通平台，我們的業主和加盟商經常收到我們的消息，我們也經常收到他們的消息，許多業主和加盟商都參與了新的業主諮詢委員會。

The first Starwood hotel began to purchase goods and services from Marriott's procurement partner Avendra in December. Last month we rolled out our guest satisfaction tracking system, Guest Voice, to over 1,300 hotels.

喜達屋旗下第一家飯店於 12 月開始從萬豪的採購合作夥伴 Avendra 購買商品和服務。上個月，我們將客戶滿意度追蹤系統 Guest Voice 推廣到 1300 多家飯店。

We also launched an innovation lab for our Aloft and Element brands at the American Lodging Industry Summit a few weeks ago to crowd-source realtime feedback on some of the exciting brand enhancements being considered. We expect to showcase these brands again at the NYU Lodging Conference in June.

幾週前，我們還在美國酒店業峰會上為 Aloft 和 Element 品牌推出了一個創新實驗室，以收集對一些正在考慮的令人興奮的品牌改進措施的即時回饋。我們預計將在六月的紐約大學住宿會議上再次展示這些品牌。

At the property level we're managing Marriott contracts to reduce OTA and procurement costs for hotels. In addition we're encouraging hotels to buy locally and in season to further reduce costs and enhance quality. By the way, our procurement contracts also help new hotel development, as lower prices for equipment and fixtures reduce the cost of new hotels too.

在飯店層面，我們負責管理萬豪合同，以降低飯店的OTA和採購成本。此外，我們也鼓勵飯店採購當地當季食材，以進一步降低成本並提高品質。順便一提，我們的採購合約也有助於新酒店的開發，因為設備和固定裝置的較低價格也能降低新酒店的成本。

In revenue management we have identified opportunities to improve the mix of higher-rated business in many hotels. For the Element brand we believe a greater focus on extended stay sales will improve both the top and the bottom line.

在收益管理方面，我們發現了許多飯店可以改善高評級業務組合的機會。對於 Element 品牌而言，我們相信更重視長期銷售銷售將提高收入和利潤。

In operations we have identified opportunities for collaboration among our managed hotels from negotiating more favorable service contracts for hotels located in proximity to each other to jointly chasing group leads. We also anticipate savings as more hotels participate in above-property shared service arrangements.

在營運方面，我們發現了旗下各酒店之間的合作機會，例如為地理位置相近的酒店協商更優惠的服務合同，以及共同爭取團體客戶線索。我們也預計，隨著更多酒店參與酒店以上共享服務安排，成本將會降低。

In our hotel development organization we've combined Marriott's Deal Philosophy with Starwood's Great Brands, which we believe will yield more secure and longer-term agreements as well as enhance relationships with owners and franchisees. And finally, we have seen significant investor interest in our owned hotels.

在我們的酒店開發機構中，我們將萬豪的交易理念與喜達屋的卓越品牌相結合，我們相信這將帶來更安全、更長期的協議，並加強與業主和加盟商的關係。最後，我們看到投資者對我們旗下的酒店表現出了濃厚的興趣。

We completed the sale of the San Francisco St. Regis in the fourth quarter and are encouraged with the progress of several other deals. We won't, however, declare victory or model them into our guidance until the deals close.

我們完成了舊金山聖路易斯街的出售。Regis在第四季度取得了進展，並對其他幾筆交易的進展感到鼓舞。但是，在交易完成之前，我們不會宣布勝利，也不會將它們納入我們的指導方針。

All in all, we are pleased with the pace of integration. Our people are working very hard, but they've made amazing progress. I'm incredibly proud of them.

總的來說，我們對整合速度感到滿意。我們的員工非常努力，而且取得了驚人的進步。我為他們感到無比驕傲。

The underlying strategy of bringing these two companies together remains sound, and we are excited about the increasing benefits of the transaction for owners, franchisees, associates, and of course our shareholders. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Leeny for a review of our financial results and some additional color on the first-quarter and 2017 outlook.

將這兩家公司合併的根本策略依然合理，我們對這筆交易給業主、加盟商、員工以及股東帶來的日益增長的好處感到興奮。現在，我想把電話交給 Leeny，讓他回顧我們的財務業績，並就第一季和 2017 年的展望做一些補充說明。

Thank you, Arne. Good morning. Given this is the first full quarter of combined Marriott and Starwood results, let me take a minute to describe our earnings release disclosures.

謝謝你，阿恩。早安.鑑於這是萬豪和喜達屋合併後的第一個完整季度業績，請允許我花一點時間介紹我們的收益發布披露情況。

Pages A1 and A2 of the earnings press release include GAAP reported results, including Starwood's results beginning only on September 23, 2016. Pages A3 and A4 reflect the combined Starwood and Marriott business performance in both years.

獲利新聞稿的 A1 和 A2 頁包含 GAAP 報告結果，其中包括喜達屋自 2016 年 9 月 23 日起的業績。A3 和 A4 頁反映了喜達屋和萬豪這兩年的合併業務表現。

Specifically the presentation of adjusted results excludes merger-related costs while the presentation of combined financial results exclude merger-related costs and assume the Starwood acquisition and spin-off of Starwood's time share business occurred on January 1, 2015. Combined financial results also use the estimated fair value of assets and liabilities as of the actual closing date of the acquisition.

具體而言，調整後業績的列報不包括與合併相關的成本，而合併財務業績的列報不包括與合併相關的成本，並假設喜達屋收購喜達屋分時度假業務以及喜達屋分拆喜達屋分時度假業務發生在 2015 年 1 月 1 日。合併財務表現也採用收購實際完成日資產和負債的估計公允價值。

We've also provided hotel RevPAR statistics on pages A8 through A11. These statistics are prepared on a combined comparable basis, including Marriott and Starwood brands for the quarter and the full year, although we've highlighted only the largest North American brands.

我們還在 A8 至 A11 頁提供了酒店 RevPAR 統計數據。這些統計數據是根據可比合併數據編制的，包括萬豪和喜達屋品牌的季度和全年數據，但我們只重點介紹了北美最大的品牌。

Fourth-quarter reported diluted earnings per share totaled $0.62. GAAP results were constrained by $136 million of pre-tax merger-related costs, including $55 million of severance and retention costs, $59 million of transition costs, and $22 million of transaction costs.

第四季公佈的稀釋後每股收益總計為 0.62 美元。GAAP 業績受到 1.36 億美元稅前併購相關成本的限制，其中包括 5,500 萬美元的遣散費和留任成本、5,900 萬美元的過渡成本和 2,200 萬美元的交易成本。

Adjusting for these items diluted, EPS totaled $0.85, at the high end of our November 7 guidance. Compared to the midpoint of our guidance, we outperformed about $0.02 in fees, largely due to better than expected RevPAR growth and incentive performance, about $0.03 on the owned, leased, and other line, related both to better than expected owned hotel profits and stronger branding fees from our credit card residential sales, and about $0.01 on the G&A line due to lower administrative costs, all partially offset by about $0.04 on the tax line, largely due to a tax rate change in France and an unfavorable mix of earnings.

在調整這些項目後，稀釋後的每股收益為 0.85 美元，處於我們 11 月 7 日預測的高端。與我們預期的中點相比，我們在費用方面超額完成了約 0.02 美元，這主要得益於 RevPAR 增長和激勵措施表現好於預期；在自有、租賃和其他項目方面超額完成了約 0.03 美元，這既與自有酒店利潤好於預期以及住宅銷售帶來的品牌推廣費用有關；所有這些超額完成都被稅收項目上約 0.04 美元的超額完成部分抵消，這主要是由於法國稅率的變化以及不利的收益組合。

Fee revenue totaled $713 million in the quarter compared to combined fee revenue of $688 million in the year-ago quarter, an increase of 4%. Fee revenue was $13 million higher than the midpoint of our November 7 expectations.

本季手續費收入總計 7.13 億美元，而去年同期手續費收入總計 6.88 億美元，成長了 4%。手續費收入比我們 11 月 7 日的預期中位數高出 1300 萬美元。

RevPAR growth was at the high end of expectations for the quarter, and operations did a terrific job by increasing house profit margins by 30 basis points worldwide. Fourth-quarter owned, leased, and other, net of direct expenses, totaled $169 million compared to combined results of $165 million in the 2015 quarter.

本季每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長達到預期上限，營運部門表現出色，全球飯店利潤率提高了 30 個基點。第四季自有、租賃及其他資產淨值（扣除直接費用後）總計 1.69 億美元，而 2015 年同期合計為 1.65 億美元。

The flattish year-over-year results reflect higher credit card and residential branding fees and strong results from owned and leased hotels, particularly the newly renovated Sheridan Center Toronto and the Marriott Charlotte City Center offset by lower termination fees and the impact of the sale of Starwood Hotels. We out-performed our November 7 guidance on this line by $16 million due to better than expected results at owned and leased hotels, as well as better than expected branding fees.

年比業績持平，反映出信用卡和住宅品牌費上漲，以及自有和租賃酒店的強勁業績，特別是新裝修的多倫多謝裡丹中心酒店和夏洛特市中心萬豪酒店，但這些都被較低的終止費和喜達屋酒店出售的影響所抵消。由於自有和租賃飯店的業績優於預期，以及品牌推廣費優於預期，我們該業務的業績比 11 月 7 日的預期高出 1,600 萬美元。

General and administrative expenses totaled $234 million in the quarter, $4 million better than our guidance and $50 million better than the prior-year combined amount. Compared to fourth-quarter 2015 combined G&A, the 2016 fourth quarter benefited from general and administrative cost savings, an $8 million favorable legal settlement and $4 million in net foreign exchange gains.

本季一般及行政費用總計 2.34 億美元，比我們預期高出 400 萬美元，比去年同期合計高出 5,000 萬美元。與 2015 年第四季合併的 G&A 相比，2016 年第四季受益於一般及行政成本的節省、800 萬美元的有利法律和解以及 400 萬美元的淨外匯收益。

Depreciation and amortization totaled $71 million in the quarter compared to 2015 combined D&A of $81 million. The $10 million decline year over year was largely due to the impact of hotels that were sold or moved to assets held for sale during the year. To sum up the results, our fourth-quarter adjusted operating income of $577 million meaningfully exceeded our guidance of $530 million to $555 million.

本季折舊和攤銷總額為 7,100 萬美元，而 2015 年同期折舊和攤提總額為 8,100 萬美元。年減 1000 萬美元主要是由於當年出售或轉移到待售資產的酒店所致。綜上所述，我們在第四季度調整後的營業收入為 5.77 億美元，顯著超過了我們先前 5.3 億美元至 5.55 億美元的預期。

On the tax line the fourth-quarter adjusted tax rate was 35.6%. As I mentioned earlier, the rate was higher than the 32.5% expected, largely due to an unfavorable mix of earnings in higher tax rate jurisdictions and the impact of a tax rate change in France.

第四季調整後的稅率為 35.6%。正如我之前提到的，實際稅率高於預期的 32.5%，這主要是由於高稅率地區收入組成不利以及法國稅率變化的影響。

Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA, which excludes merger-related costs, totaled $756 million, an 11% increase over the prior-year combined amount. Full-year 2016 combined adjusted EBITDA totaled nearly $3 billion, 9% over the 2015 combined results.

第四季調整後 EBITDA（不包括與合併相關的成本）總計 7.56 億美元，比上年同期成長 11%。2016 年全年合併調整後 EBITDA 總額接近 30 億美元，較 2015 年合併績效成長 9%。

Let's talk a little bit more about 2017. In addition to our earnings release, we also filed an 8K yesterday with combined information for our businesses by quarter for 2015 and 2016. It also includes combined RevPAR statistics by quarter for both years.

讓我們再來談談2017年吧。除了發布獲利報告外，我們昨天還提交了一份 8-K 表格，其中包含了我們 2015 年和 2016 年各季度業務的合併資訊。它還包括這兩年按季度匯總的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 統計數據。

The 8K disclosures and the 2017 guidance presented in our earnings release reflect a slightly different income statement presentation than the 2016 actuals presented in yesterday's earnings release. In the 8K and our 2017 outlook, we've reclassed credit card and residential branding fees, which totaled $210 million in 2016, from the owned, leased, and other revenue line to the franchise fee line.

我們在獲利報告中揭露的 8K 表格和 2017 年業績指引反映出的損益表列示方式與昨天獲利報告中公佈的 2016 年實際損益表列示方式略有不同。在 8K 報告和 2017 年展望中，我們將 2016 年總計 2.1 億美元的信用卡和住宅品牌推廣費從自有、租賃和其他收入類別重新歸類到特許經營費類別。

We're making this change because we believe branding fees are more akin to franchise royalties than bottom-line hotel profits in the owned, leased line. Incidentally, application and relicensing fees as well as time share fees were historically shown in franchise fees and they will continue to be there, while termination fees will remain in our owned, leased, and other line. For the full year 2017, we expect fee revenue will total $3.175 billion to $3.245 billion, reflecting roughly $35 million to $40 million of foreign exchange headwinds and flattish incentive fees year over year.

我們做出這項改變是因為我們認為品牌費更像是特許經營費，而不是自有或租賃旅館的最終利潤。順便提一下，申請費、續約費用以及分時度假費歷來都包含在特許經營費中，並將繼續包含在特許經營費中，而終止費將繼續計入我們的自有、租賃和其他費用項下。預計 2017 年全年手續費收入總額將達到 31.75 億美元至 32.45 億美元，其中約 3,500 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元受到外匯不利因素的影響，且激勵費用與去年同期相比基本持平。

Fee revenue from application relicensing, credit card, residential, and time share totaled $350 million in 2016. Of this amount, roughly 49% was earned in our credit card business, 28% came from time share royalties, 13% came from relicensing and application fees, and 10% was earned from residential branding fees.

2016 年，應用程式重新授權、信用卡、住宅和分時度假等方面的費用收入總計達 3.5 億美元。其中，約 49% 來自信用卡業務，28% 來自分時度假特許權使用費，13% 來自重新授權和申請費，10% 來自住宅品牌推廣費。

On a combined basis we expect these various fees will grow to roughly $400 million in 2017. These fees typically grow with increasing new hotel development, residential project sales, credit card spend, and hotel real estate transaction activity.

預計到 2017 年，這些各項費用加起來將成長到約 4 億美元。隨著新酒店開發、住宅項目銷售、信用卡消費和酒店房地產交易活動的增加，這些費用通常會增加。

In 2017 owned, leased, and other, net of direct expenses, should total $345 million to $360 million compared to $426 million for combined results in 2016. We expect lower termination fees in 2017.

2017 年，自有、租賃和其他資產（扣除直接費用後）總額應為 3.45 億美元至 3.6 億美元，而 2016 年的合併表現為 4.26 億美元。我們預計 2017 年的終止費用會降低。

This, along with the lost earning of hotels already sold, should reduce our results by about $38 million in 2017. Year over year we also expect the weak Brazil and New York City markets will further reduce our results by roughly $20 million.

加上已售出飯店的收入損失，預計 2017 年我們的業績將減少約 3,800 萬美元。我們預計，受巴西和紐約市市場疲軟的影響，我們的業績將年減約 2,000 萬美元。

Our 2017 owned, leased expectations include $170 million to $175 million for the 14 Legacy Starwood owned hotels. We estimate that a 1 percentage point change in our worldwide system-wide RevPAR outlook in 2017, assuming it was evenly distributed, would be worth about $35 million in fees and roughly $8 million on the owned, lease line.

我們對 2017 年自有和租賃酒店的預期收入為 1.7 億美元至 1.75 億美元，其中包括 14 家 Legacy Starwood 旗下酒店。我們估計，2017 年我們全球系統整體 RevPAR 預期變動 1 個百分點（假設平均分佈），將帶來約 3,500 萬美元的費用和約 800 萬美元的自有租賃收入。

Our 2016 G&A number isn't meaningful, given the delays in closing the Starwood transaction and the significant number of positions that remained open during the year as a result. We've estimated a more normal combined G&A for 2016 of $1.080 billion, calculated by assuming a typical 4% growth rate over the combined 2015 G&A amount. We expect G&A in 2017 will total $895 million to $905 million, a savings of $175 million to $185 million over this normalized 2016 level with such savings to be relatively back-end loaded during the year as integration proceeds.

鑑於喜達屋交易完成的延遲以及由此導致的當年大量職位空缺，我們 2016 年的 G&A 數據沒有意義。我們估計 2016 年的綜合一般及行政費用為 10.8 億美元，這是假設 2015 年綜合一般及行政費用按 4% 的典型增長率計算得出的。我們預計 2017 年的 G&A 費用總額將達到 8.95 億美元至 9.05 億美元，比 2016 年的正常水準節省 1.75 億美元至 1.85 億美元，並且隨著整合的進行，這些節省將在年末相對集中體現。

We expect to demonstrate a run rate of $250 million of annual G&A synergies by mid-2018. We estimate depreciation and amortization will total roughly $280 million in 2017.

我們預計到 2018 年年中，每年可實現 2.5 億美元的 G&A 綜效。我們預計 2017 年折舊和攤提總額約為 2.8 億美元。

Purchase accounting rules provide a timetable of up to one year from the date of acquisition to update allocations based on new information learned about the asset values used as of the date of the acquisition. As we mentioned in our press release, we expect to adopt accounting standards update 2016-09 in the first quarter of 2017.

購買會計規則規定，自收購之日起最多一年內，可根據收購日所採用的資產價值的新資訊來更新分配。正如我們在新聞稿中所提到的，我們預計將於 2017 年第一季採用 2016-09 號會計準則更新。

The amount of the windfall tax benefit will depend on the number of stock awards vested or exercised in the year, our stock price at that time, and the share price when such awards were granted. We have assumed the windfall tax benefit will add approximately $0.10 per share to our EPS in 2017, with all of it recognized in the first quarter. Our earnings guidance assumes a 2017 book tax rate of 30.8%, or 32.7% excluding the windfall tax benefit.

意外稅收優惠的金額將取決於當年歸屬或行使的股票獎勵數量、當時的股價以及授予這些獎勵時的股價。我們假設這筆意外的稅收優惠將在 2017 年使我們的每股收益增加約 0.10 美元，並且全部將在第一季確認。我們的獲利預期假設 2017 年帳面稅率為 30.8%，若不計意外稅優惠，則為 32.7%。

We expect our cash tax rate in 2017 to be roughly 28%, excluding the impact of asset sales and transition costs. All in all, we expect 2017 fully diluted EPS will total $3.79 to $3.97, an increase of 15% to 20% over 2016 combined EPS.

我們預計 2017 年的現金稅率約為 28%，不包括資產出售和過渡成本的影響。總而言之，我們預計 2017 年完全稀釋後的每股盈餘將達到 3.79 美元至 3.97 美元，比 2016 年合併後的每股盈餘成長 15% 至 20%。

We expect 2017 adjusted EBITDA will total $3.075 billion to $3.175 billion, up 3% to 6% over 2016 full-year combined adjusted EBITDA. We estimate a 1 percentage point change in the value of the dollar, assuming it was evenly distributed among all currencies, would be worth about $10 million in EBITDA. Today one-half of international fee revenue is denominated in just five currencies, and we hedge about one-third of our exposure in these currencies.

我們預計 2017 年調整後 EBITDA 總額將達到 30.75 億美元至 31.75 億美元，比 2016 年全年合併調整後 EBITDA 成長 3% 至 6%。我們估計，假設美元匯率平均分配到所有貨幣中，美元匯率每變動 1 個百分點，EBITDA 將增加約 1,000 萬美元。如今，國際手續費收入的一半僅以五種貨幣計價，我們對其中約三分之一的風險敞口進行了對沖。

We remain disciplined in our approach to capital investments and share repurchases. Investment spending could total $500 million to $700 million in 2017, including about $175 million in property maintenance spending and $100 million for systems and corporate CapEx.

我們在資本投資和股票回購方面始終保持嚴謹的態度。2017 年投資支出總額可能達到 5 億至 7 億美元，其中包括約 1.75 億美元的物業維護支出和 1 億美元的系統和企業資本支出。

We repurchased 8 million shares for $573 million in 2016. For the full year 2017, share repurchases and dividends could total $1.5 billion to $2 billion. Successful asset sales could take our cash returns estimate higher.

2016年，我們斥資5.73億美元回購了800萬股。2017 年全年，股票回購和分紅總額可能達到 15 億至 20 億美元。資產出售成功可能會提高我們的現金回報預期。

For the full year 2016 Marriott recycled capital totaling nearly $285 million from asset sales and note collections, and prior to the acquisition Starwood sold assets for $316 million. We continue to expect more than $1.5 billion in dispositions of Starwood owned assets over the next 24 months, including the $175 million we received in the fourth quarter of 2016 for the sale of the San Francisco St. Regis.

2016 年全年，萬豪透過資產出售和票據回收，回收了近 2.85 億美元的資本；而在收購之前，喜達屋出售了價值 3.16 億美元的資產。我們繼續預計在未來 24 個月內，喜達屋擁有的資產將處置超過 15 億美元，其中包括我們在 2016 年第四季出售舊金山聖路易斯酒店獲得的 1.75 億美元。雷吉斯。

Our approach to selling owned assets reflects the importance of getting full value for the hotel, as well as a strong management agreement and property improvement plan where needed. While we do expect to sell some hotels in 2017, our earnings guidance does not assume we'll sell any of these hotels.

我們出售自有資產的方式反映了充分獲取酒店價值的重要性，以及在需要時制定強有力的管理協議和物業改進計劃。雖然我們預計 2017 年會出售一些酒店，但我們的盈利預期並不假設我們會出售任何這些酒店。

As Arne said, our balance sheet is in great shape. Excluding merger-related costs, our debt ratio at December 31 was at the low end of our targeted 3 to 3.25 times adjusted to combined adjusted EBITDAR credit standards.

正如阿恩所說，我們的資產負債表狀況良好。不計合併相關成本，截至 12 月 31 日，我們的債務比率處於我們目標 3 至 3.25 倍的低端，該目標已根據合併調整後的 EBITDAR 信用標準進行了調整。

For the first quarter of 2017, we're modeling RevPAR growth of 1% to 3% in North America, 1% to 2% outside North America, and 1% to 3% worldwide. First-quarter RevPAR will benefit from the January inauguration week in Washington, DC and the shifting Easter holiday.

2017 年第一季度，我們預期北美地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長率為 1% 至 3%，北美以外地區的成長率為 1% 至 2%，全球成長率為 1% 至 3%。第一季每間可供出租客房收入將受益於 1 月在華盛頓特區舉行的就職典禮週以及復活節假期時間的調整。

We expect fee revenue will total $740 million to $750 million in the first quarter. Fee revenue will face about $6 million in foreign exchange headwinds, a tough comparison to last year's leap year, and a 10% decline in incentive fees largely due to the impact of renovations, recognition of deferred fees in prior year, and timing.

我們預計第一季手續費收入總額將達到 7.4 億美元至 7.5 億美元。手續費收入將面臨約 600 萬美元的外匯不利影響，與去年的閏年相比將面臨嚴峻的比較，激勵費用也將下降 10%，這主要是由於翻新工程的影響、前一年確認遞延費用以及時間因素。

Combined fee revenue from application relicensing fees, credit card fees, residential fees, and time share totaled $88 million in the 2016 first quarter, and we expect such fees will be flat in the first quarter of 2017, largely due to a spike in residential fees recognized in the 2016 first quarter. We expect owned, leased and other, net of direct expenses, will total $60 million to $70 million in the first quarter.

2016 年第一季度，申請重新許可費、信用卡費、住宅費和分時度假費的總收入為 8,800 萬美元，我們預計 2017 年第一季此類費用將保持平穩，這主要是由於 2016 年第一季確認的住宅費激增。我們預計第一季自有、租賃和其他資產（扣除直接費用後）總額將達到 6,000 萬美元至 7,000 萬美元。

Year over year we expect $13 million of lower termination fees and $4 million in lower profits due to the previous sale of hotels. With a $0.10 benefit of the tax windfall, we estimate first-quarter diluted EPS will total $0.87 to $0.91.

由於之前出售了酒店，我們預計終止費用將比上一年減少 1300 萬美元，利潤將減少 400 萬美元。考慮到稅收意外之財帶來的 0.10 美元收益，我們預計第一季稀釋後每股收益將達到 0.87 美元至 0.91 美元。

We know that you're eager for more information about the combined Company, and we hope you can attend our New York City Analyst Day on March 21. As you can tell, for now we feel very good about our brands, our business, and our progress in integrating Starwood. Now let's get to your questions.

我們知道您渴望了解更多關於合併後公司的信息，我們希望您能參加我們於 3 月 21 日在紐約市舉辦的分析師日活動。正如你所看到的，目前我們對我們的品牌、業務以及整合喜達屋所取得的進展都感到非常滿意。現在我們來回答您的問題。

(Caller Instructions)

（來電者指示）

Our first question comes from Harry Curtis with Nomura.

我們的第一個問題來自野村證券的哈里·柯蒂斯。

Hi, guys. Good morning. I wonder if you could give us some thoughts on the number of brands that you have that -- ones that might benefit from some rationalization or consolidation? And if there are any, would that increase the management focus and clarity also for your owners?

嗨，大家好。早安.我想知道您能否談談您旗下有多少個品牌——哪些品牌可能需要進行一些合理化或整合？如果存在這種情況，這是否也能提高所有者的管理重點和清晰度？

Thanks, Harry. Basically the short answer is, we're going to keep them all. It's obviously a big portfolio of brands.

謝謝你，哈里。簡而言之，我們會全部保留。這顯然是一個龐大的品牌組合。

I think we would acknowledge that if we were starting with a plain piece of paper we wouldn't necessarily start 30 brands. But having 30 brands that already have distribution with strong owner investment in hotels that carry those flags, and recognizing that our principal tool for going to market is the portfolio and the loyalty programs, we think offering more choices and in some respects more brands is a positive, not a negative.

我想我們都會承認，如果我們從一張白紙開始，我們不一定會創立 30 個品牌。但是，我們擁有 30 個品牌，這些品牌已經擁有分銷管道，業主對掛有這些品牌的酒店進行了大力投資。我們也認識到，我們進入市場的主要工具是產品組合和忠誠度計劃，因此我們認為，提供更多選擇，並在某些方面提供更多品牌，是一件好事，而不是壞事。

To state the obvious, we will over time work with our owners and franchisees to crystalize each of the brand positionings as much as possible so that we draw distinctions between them. We're very much underway with that, including with our owners and franchisees.

顯而易見，我們將與我們的所有者和加盟商共同努力，盡可能地明確每個品牌的定位，以便區分它們。我們正在積極推進這項工作，包括與我們的業主和加盟商一起。

Very good. And follow-up on the comments about incentive management fees for 2017. I would have expected them to grow somewhat, just given the number of managed hotels, particularly internationally, that you'd expect to open. Can you give us some thoughts about what might be holding the growth of incentive fees back for this year?

非常好。另外，請就 2017 年激勵管理費的相關評論進行後續說明。考慮到預計會有越來越多的酒店開業，尤其是在國際上，我原本預期它們會有所增長。您能否談談今年可能阻礙激勵費用成長的因素？

Sure. At the end of the day, Harry, we definitely will see some growth. But what you've also got is a bunch of things impacting going the other way.

當然。哈里，到頭來，我們肯定會看到一些進步。但同時，也有很多因素會影響相反的方向。

FX is the biggest one, really, when you look at that and could be as much as $15 million year over year. Then you add to that, we've got renovations going on as well as the fact that terminations of some of those hotels also are going to impact year-over-year incentive fees.

外匯交易才是最大的變數，逐年可能高達 1500 萬美元。此外，我們還有一些飯店正在進行翻新，部分飯店的終止合作也會影響到年度獎勵費用。

Are the terminations, is that a trend that is worrisome? Maybe a little bit more color around that, and that will be it for me. Thanks.

這些裁員是否是令人擔憂的趨勢？或許可以再添加一些色彩，我的就到此為止了。謝謝。

No, really not anything above the normal trend.

不，真的沒有超出正常趨勢。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

Great, thanks. Just looking at the percent of your pipeline that's under construction, I think it was 38%. That's a little bit lower than either Marriott or Starwood on a legacy basis was usually sort of closer to 50%. I'm just curious if there's anything in particular that's making that look a little bit lower than what it typically might?

太好了，謝謝。單看你們管道在建部分的百分比，我認為是 38%。這比萬豪或喜達屋的傳統比例略低，通常接近 50%。我只是好奇，是不是有什麼特別的原因導致它看起來比正常情況低一些？

That's a really good question, Robin. I think pieces of this are about the shift towards more international from domestic. And maybe to some extent, even when you're in the US looking at select serve assets, probably a shift more towards urban and away from the prototypical suburban assets.

羅賓，你問得真好。我認為這其中一部分原因在於，人們的觀念正從更本土化轉向更國際化。或許在某種程度上，即使你身處美國，關注的是特定服務資產，也可能出現一種趨勢，即更多地向城市方向發展，而遠離典型的郊區資產。

Obviously the more you get to urban or full-service or international, the more the pre-construction period lengthens because permitting takes a little bit longer, the projects tend to be custom and therefore the architecture and design work takes a little bit longer. And I think those would be probably the principal factors that would bring that percentage down a bit.

顯然，越是城市化、全方位服務或國際化的項目，施工前的準備期就越長，因為審批需要更長時間，項目往往是客製化的，因此建築和設計工作也需要更長時間。我認為這些因素很可能是導致該比例略微下降的主要因素。

Okay, great. That's helpful. My follow-up is, your projected cost saves from the integration hasn't changed at all. It seems like you had perfect visibility several quarters before the closing of the transaction. So I guess I'm sort of --

好的，太好了。那很有幫助。我的後續問題是，您預計透過整合節省的成本完全沒有改變。看來你在交易完成前幾季就完全預見了情況。所以我想我算是——

That's really nice of you to say. (Laughter).

你真會說話。（笑聲）。

It's just perfect. Just curious if you think there are still things to work through? In other words, is every dollar identified at this point? Are there areas that you haven't -- I guess I'm of asking in a different way if there's potential upside to that?

簡直完美。我只是好奇，你覺得是否還有一些問題需要解決？換句話說，此時每一美元都確定了嗎？還有哪些領域是你沒有涉足的？ ——我換個方式問，這方面是否有潛在的優勢？

A couple things, and thanks for the question because it is worth mentioning a little bit about the timing as we think about the way these synergies will roll in. As integration progresses we'll definitely see during the year, we'd expect to see the difference between, when you look at the combined a year ago quarter by quarter, we would expect that these savings progress during the year and in to 2018. As we move forward, by the time we're kind of in mid-2018 we feel comfortable that that $250 million, we can ring that bell.

有幾點需要說明，也感謝你的提問，因為在考慮這些協同效應將如何發揮作用時，有必要稍微談談時間安排。隨著整合的推進，我們肯定會在年內看到，我們預計，與去年同期相比，按季度來看，這些節省將在年內以及 2018 年繼續增加。隨著專案的推進，到 2018 年年中，我們感覺有信心實現 2.5 億美元的目標，屆時我們就可以敲響那口鐘了。

Obviously we're going to keep looking. This is an ongoing progress.

顯然，我們會繼續尋找。這是一個持續進行的過程。

It's not a one-stop shop, so we'll continue to explore everything we can do. But for the moment we feel good about the $250 million.

這並非一站式服務，所以我們將繼續探索我們所能做的一切。但就目前而言，我們對這 2.5 億美元感到滿意。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Good morning, guys.

各位早安。

Morning, Joe. How about that? (Laughter).

早安，喬。怎麼樣？（笑聲）。

Arne, you mentioned that part of your increased confidence or optimism in your 2017 guidance is rooted not just from looking at macro factors, but also from a ground-up forecasting budgeting process with your guys in the field. When you look at that, is there a big difference between RevPAR growth expectations for legacy Marriott branded properties versus what you acquired in Starwood?

Arne，你提到你對 2017 年業績指引的信心或樂觀情緒的增強，部分原因不僅在於對宏觀因素的考量，還在於與你的一線員工一起進行的自下而上的預測預算過程。從這個角度來看，萬豪旗下傳統品牌飯店的RevPAR成長預期與您所收購的喜達屋飯店的RevPAR成長預期之間是否有較大差異？

No, there are some differences, obviously, in the distribution of the portfolio. Starwood portfolio still tends to be skewing much more international toward the higher-end chain scales.

不，顯然，投資組合的分佈存在一些差異。喜達屋酒店集團的業務組合仍然傾向於更加國際化，並向高端連鎖酒店傾斜。

Obviously their distribution of select service was less robust than the legacy Marriott brands, and so that rolls up to some extent in different ways through those portfolios. When we look at like-to-like markets, we see very similar RevPAR expectations.

顯然，他們的精選服務分銷不如傳統的萬豪品牌強大，因此，這在某種程度上以不同的方式影響了這些產品組合。當我們檢視同類市場時，會發現RevPAR預期非常相似。

Great. Leeny, you talked about G&A and cost cuts. What's surprising, and maybe you can talk about it somewhat differently, is if I look at your 1Q G&A guidance and full-year G&A guidance, it kind of implies basically that G&A is sequentially flat on average 2Q through 4Q versus the 1Q, which somewhat surprised me. Can you just talk about that, and what's, I guess, not driving more of an incremental sequential improvement or reduction in G&A?

偉大的。Leeny，你談到了一般及行政費用和成本削減。令人驚訝的是（也許你可以換個角度來說），如果我看一下你對第一季度和全年一般及行政費用的預測，基本上可以推斷，第二季度到第四季度的一般及行政費用與第一季度相比基本持平，這讓我有點意外。您能談談這個問題嗎？我想，是什麼因素沒有推動一般及行政費用的逐步改善或減少呢？

First of all, this kind of gets back to how we thought about putting together the kind of more comparable numbers of how we think about the improvements in G&A. The combined Company numbers, when you look at those going quarter by quarter to 2016, you were really looking at a Company that was already starting to get some of those synergies as you moved through the year.

首先，這又回到了我們當初是如何思考如何整理出更具可比性的數據，來衡量我們對 G&A 改進的看法。從公司合併後的數據來看，如果你按季度查看到 2016 年的數據，你會發現，隨著時間的推移，公司實際上已經開始獲得一些綜效。

When you look at Q3 and Q4, you had a bunch of open positions, and you were actually in some respects really getting those synergies in 2016. So then when you look at 2017 compared, we're going to continue to get synergies, but again you're looking at a combined Company in Q3 and Q4 of 2016 as frankly already getting some of those synergies, given the merger was kind of semi-closed, not quite closed, a bunch of open positions.

回顧第三季度和第四季度，我們有很多空缺職位，在某些方面，我們在 2016 年確實獲得了這些協同效應。所以，當你把 2017 年與 2016 年進行比較時，我們將繼續獲得協同效應，但同樣地，你看到的是合併後的公司在 2016 年第三季度和第四季度已經獲得了一些協同效應，因為合併當時處於半封閉狀態，沒有完全完成，還有很多空缺職位。

I think the other factor you've got going on here is there are at times through this process a bit of a step function. When you look at G&A synergies against the baseline, I think we'd say fourth quarter shows more synergies than the first quarter, for example.

我認為這裡存在的另一個因素是，在這個過程中有時會出現一些階躍函數現象。如果將一般及行政費用綜效與基準進行比較，我認為例如，第四季的綜效比第一季好。

It's through the end of the first quarter we will be beginning to sunset some of the transitional efforts that were continued after the date of close. I think we'll also get into early 2018 and there will be a time when we would also sunset some of the duplicative systems.

到第一季末，我們將開始逐步結束一些在交易完成日期之後繼續進行的過渡性工作。我認為到了 2018 年初，我們也會逐步淘汰一些重複的系統。

Until we get to those points where we're actually flipping off some of those switches, we don't achieve final phases or the next phase of some of that spending. But Leeny's comments certainly is right. We have some comparison issues here, too, in the sense that Starwood started to achieve savings really in the second half of 2015, and both Companies in anticipation of the close were already starting to look at synergies in advance of closing.

只有當我們真正關閉其中一些開關時，我們才能實現最終階段或下一階段的支出。但利尼的評論無疑是正確的。這裡也存在一些比較問題，因為喜達屋真正開始實現節約是在 2015 年下半年，而且兩家公司在交易完成之前都已經開始考慮綜效。

Joe, if you look at more of the way that I'm describing, look at the two Companies pre-merger and normalize them with a 4% increase for 2016 and use that as your run rate, you'll actually see that Q1 we show savings, call it, of 10% relative to those numbers. And by the time we get to Q4 we're at 25% on a more normalized basis. So you actually are seeing a real progression in the savings. Again, it's depending on what you're comparing them to.

喬，如果你仔細看看我描述的方法，看看合併前的兩家公司，並以 2016 年 4% 的增長率進行標準化，以此作為你的運行率，你會發現，實際上我們在第一季度實現了相對於這些數字 10% 的節省。到了第四季度，我們就能以更正常的方式達到 25% 的比例。所以你確實看到了儲蓄方面的實際進展。這同樣取決於你用什麼來比較。

Got it. One follow-up on that, just so I'm thinking about this correctly and not asking you to provide guidance for beyond this year, but thinking about it in the big picture. Would you expect that incremental of $70 million of G&A synergies, that if you think you finish this year at $900 million in G&A, does that grow with inflation and then you reap the benefit of $70 million, or is there any incremental inflationary pressure to think about looking ahead to modeling that G&A number?

知道了。關於這一點，我還有一個後續問題，這樣我就能正確理解這件事，而不是要求您提供今年以後的指導，而是從更宏觀的角度來看待這個問題。您是否預期，如果今年的 G&A 支出達到 9 億美元，那麼新增的 7000 萬美元 G&A 協同效應是否會隨著通貨膨脹而增長，從而帶來 7000 萬美元的收益？或者是否存在任何新增的通膨壓力，需要我們考慮提前對 G&A 支出進行建模？

Well, a couple things. We are, in many cases, talking people here. We're talking the reality of people that will be continuing to help us put the two Companies together.

嗯，有幾件事。我們在這裡談論的，很多時候都是人。我們現在討論的是那些將繼續幫助我們把兩家公司合併的人員的實際情況。

But I'll also say that as you get through 2018, that by the time we're in the third quarter of 2018 I think you'll see the run rate reflect the savings that we've talked about. Now, the timing of some of these integration costs of exactly the, we call them wind-down, they're not perfectly predictable.

但我還要說，隨著 2018 年的推進，到 2018 年第三季度，我認為你會看到運行率反映出我們所說的節省。現在，這些整合成本（我們稱之為逐步停止成本）的具體時間是無法完全預測的。

Kind of exactly the $250 million with 3% inflation, we'll have to see how that goes. But we're determined when we think of it as $250 million in 2017 dollars, that obviously then over time will grow. But I would expect that it's more in the back half of 2018 where we've kind of really been able to say the Companies from a fundamental running standpoint are truly integrated and combined.

差不多就是 2.5 億美元，通貨膨脹率為 3%，我們得看看結果如何。但我們堅信，以 2017 年的美元價值計算，這筆投資將達到 2.5 億美元，隨著時間的推移，這筆投資顯然還會成長。但我預計，要到 2018 年下半年，我們才能真正從根本營運的角度說這兩家公司已經真正整合合併。

Our next question comes from Jeff Donnelly with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑夫唐納利。

Good morning, folks. Leeny, this first question is concerning the $1.5 billion of asset sales you referenced. How many of those assets are with brokers are actively being marketed today, and is there a rule of thumb you can give us on gross versus net proceeds we should expect in the event those are sold? I'm thinking of things like taxes or mortgage debt or things that would impact net proceeds.

各位早安。Leeny，第一個問題是關於你提到的15億美元資產出售事宜。目前有多少資產由經紀人積極推銷？如果這些資產被出售，您能否提供一些關於總收益與淨收益的經驗法則？我指的是稅收、抵押貸款債務或其他會影響淨收益的因素。

Sure. We're obviously talk talking to folks in the market about all of them. These were assets that were in many cases under active discussions before the transaction closed, and as a team we continue to march forward and then on several, but at that point we're not.

當然。我們顯然會和市場上的各界人士談論所有這些問題。這些資產在交易完成之前，很多情況下都處於積極的討論之中，作為一個團隊，我們繼續推進，然後又推進了幾個項目，但到了那個時候，我們就停止了。

We're talking to folks in the market. They're obviously all in various stages because each of the assets is different and each has a separate situation, whether you've got to look at ground leases or elements that you're comparing on the PIP, et cetera.

我們正在與市場上的人士洽談。顯然，它們都處於不同的階段，因為每項資產都不同，每項資產的情況也不同，無論是查看土地租賃還是在專案實施計劃 (PIP) 中比較的要素等等。

So I can't really give you a prediction in terms of timing of the asset sales. But we do continue to feel good about the environment and good about our ability to get it done in the timeframe that I described.

因此，我無法準確預測資產出售的時間。但我們仍然對環境感到樂觀，也對我們能夠在我所描述的時間範圍內完成這項工作的能力感到樂觀。

The other thing I'd say on the gross versus net proceeds is they're going to really vary. They're going to vary quite a bit asset to asset. And I would say that a good proxy to use is about 20%, but again I will say that could be very different asset to asset.

關於毛收益和淨收益，我想說的另一點是，它們之間的差異會非常大。不同資產之間的差異會相當大。我認為20%左右是一個比較好的參考值，但我再次強調，這對不同的資產來說可能會有很大的不同。

Then just a second question. I don't know if you guys if you might have -- .

那我還有一個問題。我不知道你們有沒有——。

Just to be clear, we've actually -- when we think of our cash flow model, we've been taking that into consideration all along.

需要說明的是，實際上——當我們考慮現金流模型時，我們一直都考慮到了這一點。

Okay, thank you. Just one other question is New York experienced something of a unique and maybe unanticipated lift in November and December that's continued a little bit into this year. Some folks think it's a post-election bounce and others attribute it to new regulation against short-term rentals like Airbnb.

好的，謝謝。還有一個問題，紐約在 11 月和 12 月經歷了某種獨特且或許出乎意料的成長，這種成長勢頭一直延續到今年。有些人認為這是選舉後的反彈，而有些人則將其歸因於針對 Airbnb 等短期租賃的新法規。

My point is, to the extent it was the latter, legislative related, the implication is that Airbnb has actually had a stronger impact on the hotel industry than maybe has ben originally surmised. I was just curious if you had any color or insight on some of those trends? Do you guys think differently about maybe what drove some of the lift in New York in the back half of 2016?

我的觀點是，如果這確實是後一種情況，即與立法有關，那麼這意味著 Airbnb 對酒店業的影響實際上比最初預想的要大。我只是好奇你對這些趨勢有什麼看法或見解？你們對2016年下半年紐約股市上漲的推動因素有什麼不同的看法嗎？

I think we remain generally cautious on New York, and that is not really about an Airbnb impact either before or more recently in the wake of some of the legislative activity that's been underway. New York was, in our fourth quarter, just slightly negative on the top line.

我認為我們對紐約仍然保持謹慎態度，這實際上與Airbnb在之前或最近一些立法活動之後的影響無關。紐約第四季營收略微下滑。

I think our expectations for 2017 would be that New York would remain ever so slightly negative, not positive. That is actually remarkably good performance in some respects, given that we've got supply growth at nearly 5% in both 2016 and 2017 which would suggest basically that we've got demand growth growing at nearly the same pace.

我認為我們對 2017 年的預期是紐約的經濟狀況將略微惡化，而不是改善。從某些方面來看，這確實是一個非常不錯的表現，因為 2016 年和 2017 年的供應成長率都接近 5%，這基本上表明我們的需求成長率也幾乎相同。

When you look at the last few months of last year or you look at what's happening in January, these are historically fairly soft periods. I think it is dangerous to draw many conclusions from them about nature of supply and demand in New York, including the impact of shared economy platforms. Obviously we'll continue to monitor that as we go forward, but we would expect that we'll continue to have a pretty modest performance.

回顧去年最後幾個月或看看今年一月的情況，從歷史數據來看，這些時期通常都比較疲軟。我認為從這些案例中得出關於紐約供需性質（包括共享經濟平台的影響）的許多結論是危險的。顯然，我們會繼續密切關注事態發展，但我們預計我們的表現仍將相當平庸。

Our next question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的斯梅德斯·羅斯。

Hi. Thank you. You touched on this in the beginning, so sorry if I missed it. But I noticed that the pipeline, while it's still obviously very large, was flat sequentially and typically you show growth on a quarter-over-quarter basis. I was just wondering if you could touch on that, of why it was flat?

你好。謝謝。您一開始就提到了這一點，如果我錯過了，請見諒。但我注意到，雖然專案儲備仍然非常龐大，但環比成長停滯，而通常情況下，成長是按季度環比體現的。我只是想問一下，您能否談談為什麼它是平的？

Every year we do a careful culling of the portfolio, the pipeline, as we get to year end to make sure that they are reflective of deals which are very much still in progress. Obviously it was the first time we had a chance to do that since closing the Starwood transaction.

每年到了年底，我們都會仔細篩選投資組合和待開發項目，以確保它們能夠反映出仍在進行中的交易。顯然，這是我們自完成喜達屋交易以來第一次有機會這樣做。

I don't think we brought different standards to bear than we've brought historically to it. But we did cull a number of thousands of rooms out of that portfolio, or out of that pipeline, in the fourth quarter as we got towards the end of the year.

我認為我們採取的標準與以往並無不同。但在第四季度接近年底的時候，我們確實從該投資組合或正在籌建的項目中削減了數千間客房。

And then I wanted to ask you, too, you mentioned that asset sales could bring in additional cash over the course of the year. Is there also an opportunity for some sort of loyalty program monetization that we've seen? I think Starwood had a deal with MX several years ago and Hilton talked about it a little bit yesterday on their call. Is that something that you might look to do this year or next year?

然後我還想問您，您提到資產出售可以在一年內帶來額外的現金收入。我們看到，是否存在某種忠誠度計畫的獲利機會？我認為喜達屋幾年前曾與墨西哥城達成一項協議，希爾頓昨天在電話會議上也稍微談到了這件事。這是你今年或明年打算做的事嗎？

Absolutely. As you probably remember that we've talked about before, we've got two cobrand credit card partners, SPG with Amex and JPMorgan Chase Visa for Marriott Rewards. As we think about combining loyalty program over the long run, we obviously are in discussions with both of those companies about these cobrand credit cards.

絕對地。您可能還記得我們之前討論過，我們有兩個聯名信用卡合作夥伴，分別是 SPG 與美國運通的合作以及摩根大通 Visa 與萬豪禮賞的合作。從長遠來看，當我們考慮合併忠誠度計劃時，我們顯然正在與這兩家公司討論這些聯名信用卡事宜。

So we'll be talking to them this year, relooking at the entire deal between the companies. One credit card agreement expires in 2018, the other expires in 2020. We're very excited about, frankly, the possibilities there, but wouldn't be in a position to be able to quantify anything at this point.

所以今年我們會和他們談談，重新檢視兩家公司之間的整個交易。其中一張信用卡協議將於 2018 年到期，另一張將於 2020 年到期。坦白說，我們對其中的可能性感到非常興奮，但目前我們還無法量化任何事情。

Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it.

好的。謝謝。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。

Hi, good morning. I don't know if you have gone over this yet. I'm just curious, on your raise for the international RevPAR, specifically what locations are driving that? Secondly, is it partly driven by the strength of the US dollar with Americans traveling internally going into your assumptions? Thank you.

您好，早安。我不知道你是否已經看過這個了。我很好奇，關於您提到的國際市場RevPAR成長，具體是哪些地區的成長推動了這一成長？其次，你的假設是否部分源自於美元走強以及美國人在國內旅行？謝謝。

Those are all good questions. I think it probably starts with neither of those suggested answers, but simply that we have done the budgets. A quarter ago when we did our earnings call, we were -- of course had started the budget process and was looking at the data that we had.

這些都是很好的問題。我認為問題可能並非出自上述任何一種建議的答案，而只是因為我們已經完成了預算。一個季度前，當我們召開財報電話會議時，我們當然已經開始了預算編制工作，並且正在查看我們掌握的數據。

But since that point in time, all our teams around the world have had a chance to build these budgets from hotel-by-hotel perspective. I think if you compare beyond that, general expectations were maybe a bit more bullish in Latin America and optimistic that the Zika epidemic is getting behind us in terms of its impact, at least, It's obviously not over.

但從那時起，我們世界各地的所有團隊都有機會從每家酒店的角度來制定這些預算。我認為，如果將兩者進行比較，拉丁美洲的普遍預期可能更加樂觀，認為寨卡疫情的影響至少已經過去，但顯然疫情還沒結束。

Maybe we're just a tinge more optimistic about Europe, true, although that is a up-and-down market. You've got places like Istanbul which are in a world of hurt and other places that seem to be performing a little bit better. On average, I think those two markets would be probably the place where we have a slightly more positive view.

或許我們對歐洲市場確實稍微樂觀了一些，儘管歐洲市場波動較大。有些地方，例如伊斯坦布爾，處境艱難，而其他一些地方的情況似乎好一些。平均而言，我認為我們對這兩個市場的看法可能會稍微樂觀一點。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Thomas Allen with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的湯瑪斯艾倫。

Hey, good morning. Arne, in your prepared remarks you talked about how energy and financial customers weakened in the fourth quarter. Can you elaborate on that comment? Just seems a little strange given the dynamics in those markets.

嘿，早安。Arne，你在事先準備好的演講稿中談到了能源和金融客戶在第四季度的疲軟情況。能詳細解釋一下這個評論嗎？考慮到這些市場的動態，這似乎有點奇怪。

There might be one place where the greater optimism would hopefully come to pass. You look at energy and finance, I think there is some optimism that the energy patched bottomed and while we may not be seeing strong signs of a rapid recovery out of that level, that we're not necessarily seeing further decline. I think we did see further softness in Q4, but the anecdotes and the comments that are coming out now are a bit more encouraging.

或許在某個地方，這種更大的樂觀情緒有望成為現實。看看能源和金融領域，我認為人們對能源板塊已經觸底反彈持樂觀態度，雖然我們可能沒有看到能源板塊從目前的水平迅速復甦的強勁跡象，但我們不一定會看到能源板塊進一步下跌。我認為我們在第四季度確實看到了進一步的疲軟，但現在傳出的消息和評論則令人鼓舞一些。

I think secondly with respect to finance, matters are changing so quickly, almost on a day-to-day basis, but it's really the first of the year where you start to get this building momentum that there will be strong regulatory relief in the financial world and the optimism that is in some respects derived from that. If that optimism shows up in greater performance of those two segments of our economy, obviously that will be good demand for those customers.

其次，我認為就金融而言，情況變化如此之快，幾乎每天都在變化，但今年年初確實開始出現一種發展勢頭，即金融界將出現強有力的監管放鬆，而這種樂觀情緒在某種程度上也由此產生。如果這種樂觀情緒體現在我國經濟的這兩個領域表現得更好，那麼顯然這將為這些客戶帶來良好的需求。

It was encouraging to see manufacturing turn up after being weak for a very long time.

製造業在長期疲軟後開始復甦，令人鼓舞。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Our next question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

Hey, good morning everyone. May just to touch once more on the synergies, and I apologize because I know this can be a little bit confusing probably for this type of Q&A. Specifically, Leeny, as we think about the baseline of $900 million of combined G&A for 2017, the question we keep coming back to is, is there really closer to the $65 million to $70 million of remaining opportunity, or because the baseline is higher, I think we did the math on that $1.080 billion that you talked about and grew it a little bit, we'd be coming out a lot closer to only maybe $25 million remaining. Again, not trying to get you to give us guidance or implicit guidance, but just trying to understand of those two ranges, which one is probably closer to what's remaining?

嘿，大家早安。我只想再簡單提一下協同效應，對此我深表歉意，因為我知道對於這種類型的問答來說，這可能會有點令人困惑。具體來說，Leeny，當我們考慮 2017 年 9 億美元的合併 G&A 基準時，我們反覆思考的問題是，是否真的接近剩餘的 6500 萬至 7000 萬美元的機會，或者因為基準較高，我認為我們根據你提到的 10.8 億美元進行了一些計算，並稍微擴大了一些再次聲明，我不是想讓你給我們指導或暗示性的指導，只是想了解在這兩個範圍內，哪一個可能更接近剩餘部分？

I think your first one.

我覺得是你的第一個。

Okay. Great.

好的。偉大的。

The large r number is the better and more accurate way to both look at it and to what we expect.

較大的 r 值是觀察這個問題以及我們預期結果的更好、更準確的方式。

Perfect, thank you. My second question is, the other question we've gotten from some folks is a little around the EPS guidance and specifically wondering, could you give us a little bit more color on your thoughts around sort of the both buyback timing and perhaps just general cadence? Because I think for some people they're probably expecting maybe either a slightly larger buyback assumption or more importantly a different weighting as you thought about it across the year.

太好了，謝謝。我的第二個問題是，我們從一些人那裡收到的另一個問題是關於每股收益預期，特別是想知道，您能否更詳細地說明一下您對股票回購時機和整體節奏的看法？因為我認為，對於某些人來說，他們可能預期回購規模會稍大一些，或者更重要的是，他們預期會像你在過去一年中思考的那樣，對回購進行不同的權重分配。

Obviously it's got an average impact in that number. Any thoughts around how you modeled that would be helpful.

顯然，它對這個數字產生了平均影響。如果您能分享一下您是如何建模的，那就太好了。

Sure, absolutely. As you know, predicting the timing of asset sales is pretty difficult. So that's the main reason that we wanted to basically give you guys a model that assumes no asset sales.

當然可以。如您所知，預測資產出售的時機非常困難。所以，這就是我們想給大家一個不假設資產出售的模型的主要原因。

Obviously to the extent that we're having asset sales during the year, that could obviously change the impact and the timing of share repurchase for the year. When you think about other than that, I would say probably relatively speaking, the way we do it would be fairly steady during the year and wouldn't surprise you.

顯然，如果我們在年內進行資產出售，這顯然會改變本年度股票回購的影響和時間表。除此之外，我想說，相對而言，我們的做法在一年中會相當穩定，不會讓你感到驚訝。

The only counter to that, I would say, is that as you remember, we do have cash balances that we are going to be able to avail ourselves of, if you think about where we were at the end of Q3 and when our balance sheet comes out, you'll see the cash number has come down by about $200 million that we've been able to avail ourselves of cash. I'll use that opportunity to tell you guys that it's likely that the 10-K will be filed after the weekend, a little bit later than our typical filing because of all the purchase price accounting work we've got to do, we want to make sure we button everything down so it will be a few days later.

對此，我唯一要反駁的是，正如您所知，我們確實有一些現金餘額可以動用。如果您想想我們在第三季末的情況，以及我們資產負債表公佈時的情況，您會發現現金數字已經減少了大約 2 億美元，我們已經能夠動用這些現金。我藉此機會告訴大家，10-K 表格可能會在周末之後提交，比我們通常的提交時間晚一些，因為我們有很多購買價格會計工作要做，我們想確保把所有事情都敲定，所以會晚幾天提交。

When we think about those extra cash balances that we do expect to be able to have available to us for general corporate purposes and end up 2017 with a more normal, call it, $200 million to $300 million level of ongoing working capital cash needs, I would say we think that we'll have the use of that cash in the first half of the year rather than the second half of the year, which would give you a little bit of weighting towards the first half in share repurchase. But other than that, pretty much steady as she goes.

當我們考慮到我們預計能夠用於一般公司用途的額外現金餘額，並預計到 2017 年末，持續營運資金現金需求將達到更正常的水平，比如 2 億至 3 億美元時，我認為我們會在今年上半年而不是下半年使用這些現金，這將使股票回購在上半年佔據一定的比重。除此之外，一切都很順利。

Perfect. Thank you very much.

完美的。非常感謝。

Our next question comes from Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的費利西亞·亨德里克斯。

Thanks and good morning. Arne, in your prepared remarks earlier you gave us some nice color as to the reiteration of your RevPAR growth in North America, flat to up 2%. I'm just wondering, what do you need to see to get more bullish with that guidance?

謝謝，早安。Arne，你在之前準備好的發言中，很好地闡述了你在北美的RevPAR成長情況，持平或成長2%。我只是想知道，你還需要看到什麼才能對這份指引更加看好？

Is it just as simple as acceleration in GDP or are there other things? I was also wondering how much corporate transient demand growth you'd need to see in order to get to the high end or even above your North America RevPAR growth target?

光是GDP成長加快這麼簡單嗎？還是還有其他因素？我還想知道，為了達到甚至超過北美RevPAR成長目標的高端水平，企業短期住宿需求需要成長多少？

Obviously upside can come from any one of the drivers of our business, group or business transient or leisure. I think when we look at the year from today's perspective, we'd say leisure feels the strongest to us, probably then group and probably then business transient.

顯然，我們業務的任何驅動因素，無論是團體、商務旅行或休閒旅遊，都可能帶來收益。我認為，從今天的角度來看，休閒旅遊對我們來說是最強的，其次是團體旅遊，然後是商務旅行。

Again business transient, if it improved, that would be a positive thing. The beginning of your question was, what do you need to see before you articulate some sort of upside.

商業環境瞬息萬變，如果情況好轉，那將是一件好事。你的問題開頭是：在你闡明某種優勢之前，你需要看到什麼？

GDP tends to strengthen a bit before it shows up in our business. In other words, we lag probably a little bit. Not massively, but it could be a month or two or three, something like that.

GDP往往會先走強一段時間，然後才會對我們的業務產生影響。換句話說，我們可能稍微落後了一點。不會很嚴重，但可能需要一兩個月或三個月左右。

I think we're going to be cautious about claiming that we're in a different world until we start to see, either through bookings or through the stayed and paid actual RevPAR numbers, the kind of performance that would allow us to say, you know what? Actually that optimism is proving to be real.

我認為，在我們透過預訂量或實際入住並付費的RevPAR數據看到那種能夠讓我們說「你知道嗎？」的業績之前，我們應該謹慎地宣稱我們已經進入了一個不同的世界。事實上，這種樂觀情緒正在被證明是真實的。

And I think today you can -- if you want to go out and find anecdotes to prove a point of view that things are better, there are some an anecdotes out there. But if you actually go and look at the data with a cold clear gaze and say, are you really seeing the kind of data that would show that our business is performing differently than we thought a quarter ago, we don't see that clarity yet.

我認為今天你可以——如果你想出去尋找軼事來證明某種觀點，即情況正在好轉，那麼確實有一些軼事是存在的。但如果你冷靜客觀地審視數據，然後問自己：你真的看到了能夠表明我們業務表現與我們一個季度前預想的不同的數據嗎？我們目前還沒有看到這種清晰的結論。

Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. Since you guys -- the transaction is closed, I'm wondering what you've learned regarding the Sheridan brand, and when do you think you'll be able to be making changes there?

好的。那很有幫助。我很感激。既然交易已經完成，我想知道你們對 Sheridan 品牌有哪些了解，以及你們預計何時能夠對它進行一些改變？

We're already engaged. We pulled together our US owners, for example, full-service owners in November or early December, I've forgotten the precise week, but pretty quickly after we closed the transaction. That's a group of a few hundred of our principal owners of managed hotels and owners and operators of franchise full-service hotels.

我們已經訂婚了。例如，我們在 11 月或 12 月初召集了我們的美國業主，也就是全方位服務的業主，我記不清具體是哪一周了，但就在我們完成交易後不久就召集了他們。這是一個由數百名主要酒店業主和特許經營全方位服務酒店的業主及運營商組成的團體。

Won't surprise you to know that a big chunk of that conversation was about the Sheridan brand, and particularly with the owners of the Sheridan assets, to engage with them about where that brand should go. And that's about defining brand standards but doing it in a way that's collaborative with them, and then it's about making sure those brand standards get implemented.

不出所料，那次談話的大部分內容都與謝裡丹品牌有關，特別是與謝裡丹資產的所有者進行溝通，探討品牌未來的發展方向。這關乎於定義品牌標準，但要以與品牌方合作的方式進行，然後還要確保這些品牌標準得到實施。

Implementation means that for hotels that don't meet those standards, we move with due speed, and I'll talk about due speed in a second, to either get them onto brand standards or to get them out of the Sheridan brand. Due speed I think means not that you can publish a brand standard and then a month later start to have a public execution because that would not be fair to our partners in this.

執行意味著，對於不符合這些標準的酒店，我們將迅速採取行動（我稍後會談到迅速行動），要么使它們達到品牌標準，要么使它們退出喜來登品牌。我認為，所謂「速度」並非指發布品牌標準後一個月才開始公開執行，因為這對我們的合作夥伴不公平。

These partners are extraordinarily important to us. They need to have some time to understand those standards, to assess whether or not it's economically rational for them to meet them. And if it is, give them the opportunity in order to make arrangements for the financing and make arrangements for the work to actually get done in order to meet those standards.

這些合作夥伴對我們而言極為重要。他們需要一些時間來了解這些標準，評估達到這些標準在經濟上是否合理。如果情況屬實，就給他們機會安排融資事宜，並安排實際進行工作，以達到這些標準。

I suspect, however, we'll see in 2017 that some of the hotels that are most obviously at the bottom end of the brand, in other words they didn't meet whatever standards were in place already, they don't meet any likely standard that we end up with, that we'll see that renovations occur in some of those or some of those actually leave the system. So we're expecting to see some progress being made in 2017.

不過，我懷疑在 2017 年，我們會看到一些明顯處於品牌底層位置的酒店，換句話說，它們既沒有達到現有的標準，也沒有達到我們最終可能製定的任何標準，我們會看到其中一些酒店進行翻新，或者其中一些酒店實際上會退出該系統。因此，我們預計 2017 年會取得一些進展。

Then once you go through that process, how long does it take to cycle through your financial performance?

那麼，完成這個過程後，你的財務表現需要多長時間才能完成一個週期？

I'm not sure I know exactly what you mean by that. I think obviously the RevPAR index numbers are non-GAAP, so they're not coming through our P&L but they're a really important measure of the way a hotel is performing against its competitive set, or the way a brand is performing generally across the market.

我不太明白你這話的意思。我認為很明顯，RevPAR 指數是非 GAAP 指標，因此不會體現在我們的損益表中，但它是衡量酒店相對於競爭對手的表現，或者衡量品牌在整個市場中的整體表現的一個非常重要的指標。

The Sheridan RevPAR index is a bit lower than fair share, not massively but a couple points maybe below fair share. We're going to try and move those numbers steadily from here, including hopefully some progress in 2017.

Sheridan 的 RevPAR 指數略低於合理水平，雖然差距不大，但可能比合理水平低幾個百分點。我們將努力穩步提升這些數字，希望在 2017 年取得一些進展。

Obviously our fee contribution from those hotels will rise, not just with market RevPAR performance but with whatever index growth we can take, offset, however, by whatever loss of fees we'll experience by the deletion of hotels that don't meet that standard. So we'll work through that.

顯然，這些酒店向我們支付的費用將會增加，不僅隨著市場每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的表現，也隨著我們能夠獲得的任何指數增長而增加；然而，由於不符合標準的酒店被刪除，我們將遭受的費用損失也會抵消這些增長。我們會一起解決這個問題。

Everything that we can predict with some clarity is built into our 2017 model. When you get into years 2018, 2019, 2020, that's obviously an area where we'll try and illuminate more when we're together for our Analyst Conference in March. But we'll continue to keep you updated as our thinking evolves with that.

所有我們能夠比較清晰地預測的事情都已納入我們的 2017 年模型中。到了 2018 年、2019 年、2020 年，這顯然是我們將在 3 月的分析師大會上重點探討的領域。但我們會隨著我們想法的演變繼續向您報告最新情況。

Okay, great. So it seems like a catalyst for a little bit in the future.

好的，太好了。所以它似乎會在未來一段時間內起到催化劑的作用。

From your lips.

從你的嘴唇。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Steven Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂文·格林布林。

Thanks. Good morning. This is a little bit less of a modeling question, but Arne, I've heard you talk about how critical the richness of the travel and lodging experience is and will be in driving the business. While I recognize combining Starwood and Marriott is a huge task on its own and people are rightly focused on those cost synergies, what are the key benefits and opportunities you're excited about longer term from combining these two organizations as it relates to the customer experience specifically?

謝謝。早安.這與其說是建模問題，不如說是建模問題。 Arne，我聽你說過，旅行和住宿體驗的豐富性對於推動業務至關重要。雖然我知道喜達屋和萬豪的合併本身就是一項巨大的任務，而且人們也理所當然地將注意力集中在成本協同效應上，但就客戶體驗而言，您認為從長遠來看，合併這兩個組織會帶來哪些主要的好處和機會？

The two things I'd call out there are loyalty and then the emotional power of the brand portfolio. The loyalty program, SPG and Marriott Rewards, are absolute juggernauts.

我想重點提到的兩點是忠誠度和品牌組合的情感力量。SPG 和 Marriott Rewards 這兩個會員忠誠計畫絕對是行業巨頭。

We've talked about this in a number of prior calls and other contexts, but we've been very impressed by the enthusiasm and the dedication that the SPG loyalists, particularly the Elites have with their program. We see in it a sort of comparable level of commitment that we've seen in the Marriott Rewards program for many, many years.

我們曾在之前的多次通話和其他場合討論過這個問題，但我們對SPG忠實會員，特別是精英會員，對他們的計劃所展現出的熱情和奉獻精神印象深刻。我們從中看到了與萬豪禮賞計畫多年來所展現的相當的投入程度。

While Leeny talked about credit card companies, we've got also great partnerships with the time share companies. We've got a technology platform that we've got to work through.

Leeny 談論的是信用卡公司，但我們也與分時度假公司建立了良好的合作關係。我們有一個技術平台需要去研究和使用。

What we can build with this loyalty program, we think is going to be extraordinary exciting and should help us draw a broad connectivity to a very large group of customers and higher share of wallet from their travel. That's long-term upside for the Company.

我們認為，透過這項忠誠度計劃，我們將能夠創造出非常令人興奮的成果，並幫助我們與龐大的客戶群建立廣泛的聯繫，提高他們在旅行方面的消費份額。從長遠來看，這對公司來說是利好。

I think the second thing is around the brand portfolio. It's obvious to all of us, Starwood in many respects with the launch of W nearly 20 years ago was the first big company to get into the lifestyle space.

我認為第二點是關於品牌組合的。對我們所有人來說，顯而易見的是，喜達屋酒店集團在近 20 年前推出 W 酒店時，在許多方面都是第一家進軍生活方式領域的大公司。

That brand continues to be a very strong one. You look at the pipeline of hotels that are coming into that brand, it's both strong and they are extraordinarily exciting hotels.

該品牌依然非常強大。看看即將加入品牌的酒店項目，它們既實力雄厚，又令人無比興奮。

Then you look at not just Aloft and Element, which Starwood added also in the lifestyle space, but you look at Addition and Moxie and AC hotels and a number of entrants that we brought into the lifestyle space as well. When you think about luxury and lifestyle particularly, these are places that travelers, when they dream about travel and when they think about the experiences they most intensely want to have, they are focused on brands like that. I think the strength we'll have in that space when combined with the loyalty program should really enable us to not just work on the nuts and bolts of the integration, but really on the emotional connectivity to the traveling public. And that, as you can maybe tell from my comments, turns us on.

然後，你不僅要看看喜達屋在生活方式領域新增的 Aloft 和 Element，還要看看 Addition、Moxie 和 AC 酒店，以及我們引入生活方式領域的許多其他酒店。尤其是在談到奢侈品和生活方式時，旅客在夢想旅行和思考他們最渴望擁有的體驗時，都會關注這類品牌。我認為，我們在這一領域所擁有的優勢，再加上忠誠度計劃，應該能夠真正讓我們不僅專注於整合的具體細節，而且真正專注於與旅行公眾建立情感聯繫。而這一點，或許你從我的評論中也能看出，會讓我們興奮。

Fair enough. That's helpful. As a quick follow-up on the loyalty program specifically, how should we be thinking about the timing of the joint program going forward? Is that tied to the credit card negotiations, or should we be thinking about it otherwise?

很公平。那很有幫助。關於會員忠誠度計劃，我們想快速跟進一下，未來我們應該如何考慮聯合計劃的時間表？這是否與信用卡談判有關，還是我們應該從其他角度考慮？

It's tied to all of it. It's tied to all of it. We obviously got to get -- the technology of work is underway. They're two separate technology platforms and we've got to do the work necessarily in order to have one platform.

它與這一切都息息相關。它與這一切都息息相關。我們顯然需要掌握——工作科技正在發展中。它們是兩個獨立的技術平台，我們必須完成必要的整合工作才能擁有一個統一的平台。

It's possible we could have one platform with two different programs sitting on top of that platform, depending where we are with our partners. We've also, then, got a whole bunch of questions around the customer proposition. The programs have somewhat different rules around qualification for Elite level, around Elite bonuses, around other things, and we want to work through with our customers.

我們有可能在一個平台上運行兩個不同的程序，這取決於我們與合作夥伴的合作。因此，我們還有很多關於顧客價值主張的問題。這些計劃在精英級別的資格、精英獎金以及其他方面有一些不同的規則，我們希望與客戶一起解決這些問題。

Then of course we've got the credit card and time share companies. There are some issues which are relationship driven and some that are contractual driven, but we're going to work through those.

當然，還有信用卡公司和分時度假公司。有些問題是人際關係方面的，有些問題是合約方面的，但我們會努力解決這些問題。

You certainly should not expect that we will have one program any time in 2017. Whether we will in 2018 is something we'll work to maximize the chances for, but we don't have a date to give you yet.

你絕對不應該指望我們在 2017 年的任何時候會有一個節目。2018 年是否能夠實現，我們會努力爭取最大可能，但目前我們還沒有確切的日期可以告訴大家。

That's very helpful. Thanks again and good luck this year.

那很有幫助。再次感謝，祝你今年一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from Ryan Meliker with Canaccord Genuity.

下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Ryan Meliker。

Good morning, guys. I know it's late, so thanks for taking my question. I just wand to ask a little bit about -- I didn't think I heard it in your prepared remarks, the member pricing initiative. A couple things (technical difficulties) related to that.

各位早安。我知道現在很晚了，謝謝你回答我的問題。我只是想問一下關於會員定價計劃的問題——我好像沒在您的準備好的發言稿中聽到。與此相關的一些技術難題。

Number one, are you seeing any impact on RevPAR growth? Obviously I'd imagine it would be negative because of the discounting aspect, that's showing up over the past quarter or two?

首先，您是否看到對RevPAR成長有任何影響？顯然，考慮到過去一兩個季度以來出現的折扣因素，我估計結果會是負面的吧？

Then number two is, if you are, are you seeing any type of opportunity for RevPAR growth to maybe reaccelerate as you lap some of the impact later this year? And are you getting the benefits you were looking for in terms of being able to increase the loyalty program members?

其次，如果你確實看到了這種情況，你是否認為隨著今年稍後一些影響的消退，RevPAR 的成長可能會再次加速？您在增加會員忠誠度計劃成員方面是否獲得了預期收益？

It's an interesting question, particularly the latter half of that. I think it's going to get harder and harder for us to have a calculation about what the impact of member direct rates are, in truth. We, the last two quarters have talked about a roughly 30 basis point back to RevPAR, so that would have been in Q2 and Q3 2016.

這是一個很有趣的問題，尤其是後半部。我認為，我們越來越難以準確計算會員直接費率的影響究竟有多大。在過去的兩個季度裡，我們討論過將每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 提高約 30 個基點，這指的是 2016 年第二季和第三季。

But the closer you were, we were to implementing that program, the more you had some sort of current baseline data which allowed you to do some calculations. The farther you get away with it, you start to already have a bit of a difficult time knowing exactly where the booking would have come otherwise.

但是，我們越接近實施該計劃，就越能獲得一些當前的基準數據，從而可以進行一些計算。你越是瞞天過海，就越難確定這筆預訂原本會從哪裡來。

And we're now in a business in which essentially these member direct discounts are common across all the branded platforms. So our principal competitors are doing the same thing. That makes assessing what it would be like if we didn't have it more and more difficult to do.

如今，在我們所處的行業中，會員直接折扣基本上在所有品牌平台上都很常見。所以我們的主要競爭對手也在做同樣的事情。這使得評估如果沒有它會發生什麼變得越來越困難。

We are encouraged by the growth in sign-ups to the loyalty program since we've rolled out the member direct rates, by the awareness of these kinds of discounts, which we remain convinced will drive good behavior, from our perspective, from our customers in the way they book. As a consequence I suspect we'll see this continues much as it is in its present form.

自從我們推出會員直銷價格以來，會員忠誠度計畫的註冊人數有所增長，這令我們倍感鼓舞。我們也對這類折扣的認知度有所提高，我們仍然堅信，從我們的角度來看，這將促使我們的客戶在預訂方式上養成良好的行為習慣。因此，我懷疑這種情況會以目前的形式繼續下去。

Does it impact -- do we lap it at some point? I suppose we do. I suppose in Q2 we start to lap it.

這會產生影響嗎？我們會在某個時候超越它嗎？我想我們確實有。我想在第二節比賽中我們就能開始超越它了。

But again, our calculation was 30 basis points or thereabout in Q2. It's not a massive number.

但同樣，我們在第二季的計算結果是 30 個基點左右。這個數字並不算大。

And whether it's additive or not, Lord knows. I guess I'd say it's built into our model but I'm not necessarily sure that we focus precisely on that question either.

至於它是否具有添加劑，天知道。我想說，這已經融入我們的模型中了，但我也不確定我們是否真正關注這個問題。

Okay, that's helpful. Then as a quick follow-up, you guys talked a lot about asset sales (inaudible) indication on the San Francisco St. Regis as well.

好的，這很有幫助。然後，作為快速的後續，你們談了很多關於舊金山聖路易斯資產出售（聽不清楚）的跡象。雷吉斯也是如此。

Have you thought at all about portfolios? Obviously REIT stock prices have come back pretty meaningfully.

你有沒有考慮過投資組合？顯然，房地產投資信託基金（REITs）的股價已經大幅回升。

Seems like there might be an opportunity to do a bigger portfolio transaction, but it also might come with a REIT other than maybe one or two that might need to pay in the form of stock.

似乎有機會進行更大規模的投資組合交易，但同時也可能涉及一兩個 REIT 之外的其他 REIT，這些 REIT 可能需要以股票的形式支付。

Would you be willing to, A, do a portfolio transaction, and should we expect one? And then, B, would you be willing to accept stock for a transaction?

A，您是否願意進行投資組合交易？我們是否應該期待進行此類交易？那麼，B，你是否願意接受股票作為交易籌碼？

Thanks for the question. We certainly are willing to entertain all comers and happy to listen to anybody who's got an idea, and have thought about that. And frankly we've spoken to a number of potentially investors that would be interested in either a partial portfolio or all.

謝謝你的提問。我們當然願意接待所有來者，也樂於傾聽任何有想法並認真思考過的人的意見。坦白說，我們已經和一些潛在投資者談過，他們對部分或全部投資組合都感興趣。

As you might imagine, in many cases those are international buyers. But the reality is we've got a really interesting kind of diverse group of hotels.

正如你所想，在很多情況下，這些都是國際買家。但實際上，我們擁有一系列非常有趣且多元化的酒店。

And whether they're located in Buenos Aires or Canada or they have ground leases or they have PIP needs, every single one of them has its own story. And I think we're now fairly firmly, never say never, but fairly firmly of the view that it's going to be much more onesies and twosies is going to be the best way to maximize the value of this portfolio.

無論它們位於布宜諾斯艾利斯還是加拿大，無論它們是否擁有土地租賃權，或者它們是否有 PIP 需求，每個都有自己的故事。而且我認為我們現在相當堅定地認為，雖然永遠不要說絕對不可能，但這種觀點相當堅定，那就是更多地採用小型和小型投資組合將是最大化該投資組合價值的最佳方式。

Okay. Then willingness to accept stock?

好的。那麼是否願意接受股票呢？

Again, we haven't contemplated that. I'd say not very. (Laughter)

我們還沒有考慮過這個問題。我覺得不太像。（笑聲）

I can't imagine that even if a buyer had to use stock that we'd necessarily have to take it. They could figure out a way to put the stock in the market the same (technical difficulties).

我無法想像，即使買家必須使用庫存，我們也一定會接受。他們可以想辦法以同樣的方式將股票推向市場（技術難題）。

Fair enough. Just wanted to make sure I understood correctly. Thanks a lot.

很公平。我只是想確認一下我理解得是否正確。多謝。

We're looking for cash.

我們需要現金。

Our next question comes from David Beckel with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的戴維‧貝克爾。

I wanted to quickly touch back on terminations that were mentioned as a headwind to IMF growth. I think last quarter you mentioned that you expected unit growth, but I don't think there was any mention of terminations.

我想快速回顧一下先前提到的對國際貨幣基金組織成長構成不利影響的裁員問題。我認為上個季度您提到預計銷量會成長，但好像沒有提到裁員。

First question would be, did anything change? Then how big of a drag related to terminations do you expect this year, and should we expect a sort of persistent drag based on your earlier comment going forward?

首先要問的是，情況有改變嗎？那麼，您預計今年裁員帶來的拖累有多大？根據您先前的評論，我們是否應該預期未來會出現某種持續的拖累？

We won't have anything to say this morning about future years, but our expectations for 2017 are about the same number of -- deletions is probably a better word than terminations from our system. We've been experiencing roughly 1 point, I think Starwood was a bit more than 1 point.

今天早上我們不打算對未來幾年發表任何評論，但我們對 2017 年的預期與之前大致相同——用“刪除”這個詞可能比“終止”更能貼切地形容我們系統中的終止情況。我們大概經歷了 1 點的波動，我認為喜達屋的波動幅度略大於 1 點。

We were a little but under, they were a bit over. We still think that's about the right area.

我們略微低於預期，他們略微高於預期。我們仍然認為這個範圍大致合適。

Those stories, they are one hotel at a time. The most typical deletion is a hotel that doesn't meet our standards and it does not make economic sense for it to be reinvented to meet our standards, and so we take it out.

這些故事，都是一家一家地講。最常見的刪除情況是，某家酒店不符合我們的標準，而且對其進行改造以符合我們的標準在經濟上也不划算，所以我們將其刪除。

Now, we don't take it out without consultation with our owners and franchisees. But we essentially work towards taking that out of the system so that it can land some place else in the probably lower tier of the hotel business, typically.

現在，未經業主和加盟商協商，我們不會擅自移除它。但我們基本上是努力將它從系統中移除，以便它能夠落戶到酒店業的較低層級。

There are other circumstances in which we're subject to termination from an owner who doesn't want to keep us or who is selling it to somebody else and they have different plans for it. So every story exists in this sort of annual model.

還有其他一些情況，例如老闆不想留住我們，或是要把公司賣給別人，而他們對公司有不同的計劃，我們可能會因此被解僱。所以每個故事都以這種年度模式存在。

But it's not at different levels, at least that's what we're anticipating in our guidance. It's not at different levels than what the Company has experienced in the past.

但它並非處於不同的層次，至少在我們的指導下是如此預期的。這與公司過去經歷的情況並沒有太大差異。

David, keep in mind that when we talk about unit growth on a net basis, we're really addressing it there.

大衛，請記住，當我們談論淨單位成長時，我們實際上就是在討論這個問題。

Right, right. That's really helpful. I appreciate that. As a quick follow-up if I could, I don't think we discussed the effect of travel ban at all.

對，對。這真的很有幫助。我很感激。如果可以的話，我想補充一點，我們似乎完全沒有討論過旅行禁令的影響。

I think Leeny, you had mentioned something last night. Could you fill us in on what you're seeing with respect to maybe corporate traveler or corporate planners and their reaction to the travel ban and how that may or may not impact their plans going forward?

莉妮，我想你昨晚好像有提到什麼事。能否向我們介紹您觀察到的企業旅行者或企業規劃人員對旅行禁令的反應，以及這可能會或不會如何影響他們未來的計劃？

Yes, we don't have a lot of data yet that would say this is a big deal in terms of stayed and paid experience in our hotels. Obviously the seven countries that are called out in Executive Order are not places where's there's a lot of travel that comes through the United States. And obviously, too, the Executive Order has been suspended by ruling of the Court so it's not in effect.

是的，目前我們還沒有足夠的數據來表明這對我們酒店的入住體驗和付費體驗來說是一件大事。顯然，行政命令中提到的這七個國家並不是有很多旅客途經美國的地方。而且很顯然，該行政命令已被法院裁決暫停執行，因此不再生效。

We as a consequence don't think that by its terms it's a massive deal. Now saying that, we should stop and pause for a second.

因此，我們認為就其本身而言，這並不是一件大事。話雖如此，我們還是應該停下來稍作停頓。

You've got individual stories of families who have been waiting for a long period of time to get Visas or other permission to immigrate. For them there's no bigger story in the world than having those rights up-ended and uncertainty race back into their lives.

你會看到一些家庭的個案故事，他們等待了很長時間才獲得簽證或其他移民許可。對他們來說，世界上沒有比權利被顛覆、生活再次充滿不確定性更大的事了。

Having that said that, there is a broad sense, particularly across the Middle East but across much of the world, that the Executive Order is a really big deal, and that the symbolism is wrong and that it is effectively a communication from the United States to the rest of the world that you should anticipate that either you're not going to be welcome here or that you may have difficulty getting in. We think that's what has motivated the handful of stories that we've heard about already, which are typically group stories.

儘管如此，尤其是在中東地區乃至世界大部分地區，人們普遍認為這項行政命令意義重大，其像徵意義是錯誤的，實際上是美國向世界其他國家發出的信號：你們應該預料到，你們要么不受歡迎，要么入境可能會遇到困難。我們認為，這正是我們目前聽到的少數幾個故事的動因所在，這些故事通常都是群體故事。

They're not of course international groups where folks are saying, you know what? I'm not sure I want to take the risk of trying to bring an international group into the United States, whether it be for a wedding or for a meeting because my whole group may not be able to get in. So we have some anecdotes about folks who have reached out to us and said, rather than focus on that hotel in the US, why don't we look at what you've got in Canada, or why don't we look at what you've got someplace else.

當然，他們不是國際組織，人們不會說：“你知道嗎？”我不確定是否願意冒風險，試著帶領一個國際團體來美國參加婚禮或會議，因為我的整個團隊可能無法入境。所以我們聽到一些軼事，有人聯絡我們說，與其關注美國的那家酒店，不如看看你們在加拿大有什麼酒店，或者看看你們在其他地方有什麼酒店。

If we're hearing a handful of those anecdotes already, I'm sure there are a number that we're not hearing, which are groups who had not yet contacted us but would have contacted us were it not for this Executive Order but instead are maybe going directly to one of our hotels in another country, or they're simply deferring their efforts to plan that business.

如果我們已經聽到了一些這樣的軼事，我相信還有很多我們沒有聽到，這些團體原本還沒有聯繫我們，但如果不是因為這項行政命令，他們本會聯繫我們，但現在他們可能直接去了我們在其他國家的酒店，或者他們只是推遲了計劃這項業務的努力。

So again, I don't think this is a measurable impact today. I don't think it's necessarily a substantial impact. I wouldn't expect, by the way, that it would have much impact on business transient at all because that tends to be the kind of travel that's most resilient. But I do think it's a place where, to the extent we need to do things around security or around immigration, we should do them quickly so that we can get back to communicate to the rest of the world that subject to the revisions in the those policies, we really want people to come here and see us and do business here and vacation here and take back their fond memories to their homes.

所以，我認為目前來看，這還沒有產生可衡量的影響。我認為這未必會造成實質影響。順便說一句，我預計這不會對商務差旅產生太大影響，因為商務差旅往往是最不容易受到影響的旅行類型。但我認為，如果我們需要就安全或移民問題採取行動，就應該盡快行動，以便我們能夠盡快向世界其他地區傳達這樣的訊息：在這些政策修改之後，我們真心希望人們來到這裡參觀、經商、度假，並將美好的回憶帶回家。

That's really helpful. Thanks.

這真的很有幫助。謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of David Katz with Telsey Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey Group 的 David Katz。

Hi, David.

你好，大衛。

David?

大衛？

Morning?

早晨？

David, if your line is on mute, can you please unmute it? Our next question comes from Richard Hightower with Evercore.

大衛，如果你的線處於靜音狀態，請你取消靜音好嗎？我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 Richard Hightower。

Good morning, folks. One question this late in the call, a little high level question. As you think about your North American RevPAR guidance of flat to plus 2%, can you give us a sense of how that breaks down among, say, the top 10 markets, the top 25 and outside the top 25?

各位早安。通話即將結束，我還有一個問題，一個比較高層次的問題。鑑於您對北美RevPAR成長2%（持平或成長2%）的預期，您能否簡要說明一下，例如，前10大市場、前25大市場以及前25大市場之外的市場，這一預期是如何細分的？

No. (Laughter).

不。（笑聲）。

New York and Miami, clearly.

顯然是紐約和邁阿密。

We talked about New York as being kind of flattish. So I would expect that that's toward the lower end. But we've got that by market. I'm not sure it's terribly constructive to tick through all of those.

我們之前討論過紐約，覺得它有點平坦。所以我預計這個數字會比較低。但我們已經透過市場獲得了這些資訊。我不確定逐一核對這些東西是否真的有意義。

No, I didn't mean market by market, but kind of a gateway versus non-gateway sort of question, boiled down. If not, we can discuss it offline.

不，我不是指逐個市場地比較，而是歸根究底，是指一種「門戶網站」與「非門戶網站」的問題。如果不行，我們可以私下討論。

Why don't you give Laura and Betsy a holler on that. Let's see if we can help you navigate that.

為什麼不跟蘿拉和貝齊打個電話問問呢？我們來看看能不能幫您解決這個問題。

Our next question comes from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Bill Crow。

Good morning. Thanks for staying on late here. Arne, I wanted to take one more shot at the G&A topic.

早安.感謝你在這裡待到這麼晚。Arne，我想再就 G&A 主題做一次嘗試。

If we set aside the synergies, assume you're going to achieve those. How do you gauge the absolute level of G&A expenditures? I'm curious whether your Company as it continues to sell assets, you've exited time share, increased the focus on franchise and relative to management, whether you've got an opportunity to maybe re-engineer G&A to a lower absolute level even after these synergies are completed?

如果我們暫且不考慮協同效應，假設你將實現這些協同效應。如何衡量一般及行政費用的絕對水準？我很好奇，隨著貴公司繼續出售資產，退出分時度假業務，更加專注於特許經營，以及相對於管理層而言，在這些協同效應完成後，您是否有機會將一般及行政費用重新設計到更低的絕對水平？

That's a good question and I think there are a number of different answers to it. Leeny has been very strong in helping guide the Company through this area, before close and after close and trying to build models which essentially say here's what we think we have capacity to spend and here's what we think we need to spend, both those questions are relative and they're different questions.

這是一個很好的問題，我認為有很多不同的答案。Leeny 在幫助公司處理這方面事務方面發揮了非常重要的作用，無論是在交易完成之前還是之後，他都努力建立模型，這些模型本質上表明我們認為我們有能力支出多少，以及我們認為我們需要支出多少。這兩個問題都是相對的，而且是不同的問題。

And has essentially allocated around the business allowances, if you will, for the level of effort we think would be required to run this bigger platform. Of course, it was influenced to some extent by our target to get the $250 million of synergies. It also guided our settling on $250 million as a number that seemed to work.

並且，我們已經根據我們認為運營這個更大的平台所需的努力程度，分配了相應的業務津貼。當然，這在某種程度上也受到了我們實現 2.5 億美元綜效目標的影響。這也促使我們最終確定了 2.5 億美元這個數字，這個數字似乎比較合適。

So that planning is a piece of it. I think a second piece of it is simply listening to our teams and sensing the level of intensity in their demand for more resources, which obviously comes up frequently in companies all around. I would say one other thing, and that is I think in this last recovery, looking over the last three to four years, legacy Marriott has really done a fine job keeping admin cost growth at very, very low levels.

所以，計劃是其中的一部分。我認為第二點是傾聽我們團隊的聲音，感受他們對更多資源的需求強度，這顯然是各大公司經常遇到的問題。我還要補充一點，我認為在最近這波經濟復甦中，回顧過去三四年，萬豪酒店集團在將管理成本增長控制在非常非常低的水平方面做得非常出色。

If you look over a 25- or 30-year period of time where G&A has grown at meaningfully higher than 3%-ish kind of growth rates through other economic recovery cycles, in this one we've been keeping an awful focus on this and keeping the growth rates down. I suspect we'll continue to do that.

如果回顧過去 25 或 30 年的時間，在其他經濟復甦週期中，一般及行政費用 (G&A) 的增長率都顯著高於 3% 左右，而在這個週期中，我們卻過於關注 G&A，導致增長率一直很低。我估計我們會繼續這樣做。

Even when we can ring the bell, to use Leeny's phrase, about hitting that $250 million target, we won't be done. We'll continue to look for efficiencies in the platform.

即使我們能夠敲響鐘聲（用利尼的話來說），慶祝達到 2.5 億美元的目標，我們還沒有完成。我們將繼續尋找提高平台效率的方法。

I don't think getting rid of owned assets is likely to be terribly significant by itself, because the bulk of our spending is about running a global public company, governance reporting, et cetera that relates to that. It's about overseeing thousands of managed hotels and thousands of relationships with owners of managed and franchised hotels.

我認為單憑出售自有資產本身不太可能產生太大影響，因為我們的大部分支出都用於經營全球上市公司、公司治理報告等相關事宜。它涉及監管數千家直營酒店以及與數千家直營和加盟酒店業主之間的關係。

It's about the work we've got to do to refine and strengthen brands and provide the oversight of all of that. That's not work that's likely to get anymore intense in the years ahead.

這關係到我們需要做哪些工作來完善和加強品牌，以及對所有這些工作進行監督。未來幾年，這項工作的強度不太可能增加。

All right. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

好的。我就說到這兒吧。謝謝。

Our next question comes from Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

Good morning. Thanks for squeezing me on here. As you look to integrate your loyalty programs within the next year or two, are there any incremental costs associated with that? And do you anticipate any challenges in this process?

早安.謝謝你抽空陪我。在未來一兩年內整合會員忠誠度計畫的過程中，是否會產生任何額外的成本？您預計在過程中會遇到哪些挑戰？

There are plenty of challenges. The technology and the partnerships would be probably where we would start.

挑戰重重。我們可能會從技術和合作關係著手。

We've got good relationships and we've got good plans, and so we're quite optimistic about being able to navigate through all of that. But it's a lot of work. And don't hear our confidence as being a sign that it isn't, because we've got many people that are focused on this and getting it done right.

我們人際關係良好，規劃周全，所以我們對順利度過這一切相當樂觀。但這工作量很大。不要把我們的自信誤解為事情不會成功的信號，因為我們有很多人專注於這項工作，並努力把它做好。

Are there any costs associated with it? There are, of course. I think the bulk of the costs associated with it, like the bulk of the costs of the program, are really paid for by the system as we go through it.

這樣做會產生任何費用嗎？當然有。我認為與此相關的絕大部分費用，就像該專案的絕大部分費用一樣，實際上是在我們推進專案的過程中由系統支付的。

We need to make sure those costs don't balloon and harm our owners. We're doing everything we possibly can to manage that. I wouldn't expect this to be a sort of regular impact to our P&L, other than through the upside of (multiple speakers).

我們需要確保這些成本不會急劇膨脹，從而損害我們所有者的利益。我們正在盡一切可能來應對這種情況。除了（多位演講者）帶來的利益之外，我不認為這會對我們的損益表產生常規影響。

The synergies. At the end of the day we see much more upside than we do downside in terms of on the cost and revenues side related to loyalty.

協同效應。歸根究底，就與忠誠度相關的成本和收入而言，我們看到的收益遠大於損失。

Right. Okay, thank you. Just a quick follow-up on your credit card comments. I realize you don't want to talk about any future contribution from any reworked deal, but can you help me size up the current agreements? If you're doing $3.1 billion in EBITDA in 2017, how much of that is coming from your current credit card agreements?

正確的。好的，謝謝。關於您之前提到的信用卡問題，我再補充一點。我知道您不想談論任何重新修訂後的協議中未來的任何貢獻，但您能幫我評估目前的協議嗎？如果你2017年的EBITDA為31億美元，其中有多少是來自你目前的信用卡協議？

We said in the call 49%.

我們在電話會議中說了49%。

Right. About 49% of the $350 million that we talked about being this kind of pot of fees that are not tied directly to the RevPAR of hotels. And so if you say roughly half of that is coming from the credit card relationships. And those are, again, those are driven by credit card spend.

正確的。在我們討論的 3.5 億美元中，約有 49% 是這類與飯店每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 沒有直接關係的費用。所以，如果你說其中大約一半是來自信用卡關係。而這些，再次強調，都是由信用卡消費所驅動的。

Got it. Okay. Thanks again.

知道了。好的。再次感謝。

Our final question for today comes from Wes Golladay with RBC Capital.

今天最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的韋斯‧戈拉迪。

Good morning, everyone. There has been a little bit of an uptick in optimism. What are the hotel revenue managers thinking right now? Are they still going with the defensive heads-and-beds strategy?

各位早安。人們的樂觀情緒略有回升。飯店收益管理人員現在在想什麼？他們仍然堅持防守型的人員配置策略嗎？

Yes, I think so. We mentioned in the prepared remarks that we are adding some special corporate accounts to what we had last year. We think it is sensible to do that.

是的，我也這麼認為。我們在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，我們將在去年的基礎上增加一些特殊的企業帳戶。我們認為這樣做是明智的。

Really what we're doing is we're running the business with an expectation. So this is about cost management, it's about driving top line with an expectation that we're going to continue to slug it out in a pretty low growth GDP environment.

實際上，我們是在帶著預期經營業務。所以，這關乎成本管理，關乎在預期我們將在低成長的 GDP 環境下繼續苦苦掙扎的情況下，如何推動營收成長。

If there's strength in GDP, it's all upside. But if there's no strength in GDP, we want to make sure we're delivering the best results we can.

如果GDP走強，那就全是利多。但如果GDP沒有強勁成長，我們希望確保我們能夠取得最好的結果。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you all very much for your time and attention and bearing with us. We know we've thrown an awful lot of data at you. By all means, give us a holler back if we can be helpful to you. Safe travels.

非常感謝大家抽空關注我們，也感謝大家的耐心等待。我們知道我們已經向你拋出了海量數據。如果您需要任何協助，請隨時與我們聯繫。一路平安。

This concludes the Marriott International 2016 fourth-quarter and year-end conference call. Thank you for joining us, and have a great day.

萬豪國際集團2016年第四季及年終電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。