萬豪國際 (MAR) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Marriott International second-quarter earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise and after the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions).

女士們、先生們，感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團第二季財報電話會議。所有線路均已靜音，以避免背景噪音幹擾。發言人發言結束後，將進行問答環節。 （操作說明）

I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Arne Sorenson, President and CEO of Marriott International.

現在我將把會議交給萬豪國際集團總裁兼執行長阿恩·索倫森先生。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second-quarter 2016 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paul, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

各位早安。歡迎參加我們2016年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有：執行副總裁兼財務長Leeny Oberg；資深副總裁兼投資者關係主管Laura Paul；以及高級總監兼投資者關係主管Betsy Dahm。

Before we get started let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

在正式開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天所作的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，具體內容已在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中闡述，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致未來的實際結果與我們評論中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night along with our comments today are effective only today, July 28, 2016 and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks, on our website at www.Marriott.com/investor.

我們昨晚發布的新聞稿以及今天發表的評論中包含的前瞻性陳述僅在2016年7月28日有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。您可以在我們的網站www.Marriott.com/investor上找到我們評論中提及的非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

The big news this year for Marriott is the Starwood acquisition. As you know, we have received all of the necessary regulatory clearances throughout the world with the exception of China. We are in the second phase of China review and have been working cooperatively with the regulatory authorities. Phase 2 to review ends on August 9.

今年萬豪酒店集團最大的新聞莫過於收購喜達屋酒店集團。如您所知，除中國以外，我們已獲得全球所有必要的監管許可。目前我們正處於中國監管審批的第二階段，並一直與相關監管機構保持密切合作。第二階段審批將於8月9日結束。

We remain optimistic that we will receive clearance from China and will complete the transaction in the coming weeks.

我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們將獲得中國的批准，並將在未來幾週內完成交易。

Before we move to specifics, let me make three observations about our results in the quarter. First, you will not be surprised that US economic growth has been slower than we anticipated when the year began. In fact, over the last three quarters, room sales of our nearly 300 largest corporate customers have gradually weakened from 4% growth year-over-year in the fourth quarter to 2% in the first quarter and less than 1% in the second quarter. Fortunately group business remains strong and discounted leisure business has picked up the slack.

在深入探討具體細節之前，我想先就本季業績談三點看法。首先，美國經濟成長速度低於年初預期，這一點大家應該不會感到意外。事實上，過去三個季度，我們近300家最大企業客戶的客房銷售額年增率從第四季的4%逐漸下降到第一季的2%，第二季更是不足1%。所幸的是，團體業務依然強勁，而折扣休閒業務也彌補了這一缺口。

With half of the year complete, our second half North America RevPAR guidance assumes economic growth remains on the same slow pace that we have seen year to date.

今年上半年已經過去，我們對北美下半年每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的預測是基於經濟成長仍將保持今年迄今的緩慢速度這一假設。

Second, with the stronger dollar, we are seeing fewer international guests coming to our US hotels with the impact most pronounced in a few key gateway markets. We estimate the number of room nights occupied by international guests at comparable hotels in New York and Miami declined by 10% to 15% in the second quarter. For the US as a whole, the number of room nights from international guests in our hotels declined by roughly 3%.

其次，由於美元走強，我們發現入住我們美國酒店的國際客人數量有所減少，尤其在幾個主要門戶市場受到的影響最為顯著。我們估計，第二季紐約和邁阿密同類飯店的國際客人入住晚數下降了10%至15%。就美國整體而言，我們飯店的國際客人入住晚數下降了約3%。

Third, specific regional issues have had a meaningful impact on RevPAR growth. Terrorism in Brussels, Paris and Istanbul; Zika in the Caribbean and Latin America; oil prices in Houston and oil prices and unrest in the Middle East to name a few. Combining the headwinds from the economy, foreign exchange and regional issues, Marriott's worldwide system-wide comparable hotel RevPAR increased 2.9% in the second quarter just below our guidance. We were pleased with this performance because despite the environment, RevPAR index data shows that we are taking share. Our already high system-wide worldwide RevPAR index increased 90 basis points year to date as we extended our lead over our competitive set.

第三，一些特定的區域性問題對每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的成長產生了顯著影響。例如，布魯塞爾、巴黎和伊斯坦堡的恐怖主義事件；加勒比海和拉丁美洲的寨卡病毒疫情；休士頓的油價波動以及中東地區的油價上漲和動盪局勢等等。受經濟、外匯和區域性議題等不利因素的影響，萬豪酒店集團全球系統內同店RevPAR在第二季僅成長2.9%，略低於我們的預期。儘管面臨諸多挑戰，我們對此業績仍感到滿意，因為RevPAR指數數據顯示，我們的市佔率正在擴大。我們全球系統內RevPAR指數今年迄今已成長90個基點，進一步鞏固了我們對競爭對手的領先優勢。

We are also increasing our share of new development. Driven by the strength of our brands, we are already the largest hotel company in the world. Our global system totaled nearly 780,000 rooms at the end of the second quarter and our worldwide pipeline increased to more than 285,000 rooms, nearly 15% higher than the year-ago quarter.

我們也在不斷擴大新開發案的份額。憑藉著強大的品牌實力，我們已成為全球最大的酒店集團。截至第二季末，我們的全球飯店客房總數接近78萬間，全球在建專案客房數量超過28.5萬間，較去年同期成長近15%。

In 2016, we expect our worldwide distribution not including Starwood will increase by roughly 7.5% gross or 6.5% net. According to STR, while Marriott has 11% of open rooms in the US today, we have been selected to manage or franchise 30% of the rooms currently under construction, more than any other hotel brand company.

2016年，我們預計不包括喜達屋在內的全球分銷額將成長約7.5%（毛成長）或6.5%（淨成長）。根據STR數據顯示，萬豪目前在美國擁有11%的已開業客房，而我們已被選中管理或特許經營30%的在建客房，這一比例超過任何其他酒店品牌公司。

Our large pipeline is particularly impressive given today's financing environment. New rules requiring banks to carry higher capital reserves have constrained lending causing lenders to be more selective on both refinancings and new hotel construction. This selectivity includes more conservative loan to value ratios, a bias toward smaller transactions and caution about concentrated exposures in individual markets. To our benefit, lenders continue to favor the strongest brands.

鑑於當前的融資環境，我們龐大的專案儲備尤其令人矚目。新規要求銀行持有更高的資本儲備，這限制了貸款發放，導致貸款機構在飯店再融資和新建專案方面更加謹慎。這種謹慎體現在更保守的貸款價值比、對小型交易的偏好以及對單一市場集中投資的謹慎態度。對我們有利的是，貸款機構仍然青睞實力雄厚的品牌。

While our business is cyclical our cash flow is less sensitive than you might think. We estimate that 1 point of RevPAR worldwide over a full-year moves our fee revenue by only about 1% or $25 million and 1 point of RevPAR moves the net results of our owned and leased hotels by about $3 million.

雖然我們的業務具有週期性，但我們的現金流量對週期的敏感度可能低於您的預期。我們估計，全球每間全年可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 每增加 1 個百分點，只會使我們的費用收入變化約 1%，即 2500 萬美元；而每增加 1 個百分點，只會使我們自有和租賃酒店的淨利潤變化約 300 萬美元。

Meaningful unit growth and low risk fee revenue yields terrific operating leverage. Our performance this quarter highlights the fact. Second quarter comparable worldwide actual dollar RevPAR increased 2.3%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% and adjusted EPS grew 18%.

顯著的客流量成長和低風險的手續費收入帶來了極佳的營運槓桿效應。本季業績充分印證了這一點。第二季全球可比實際美元RevPAR成長2.3%。調整後EBITDA成長8%，調整後每股盈餘成長18%。

Our business throws off outstanding cash flow. We may make investments from time to time for particularly attractive management or franchise agreements on high-value hotels. We also buy and build great brands and businesses. We have added five brands in as many years and the pending Starwood transaction will add another 11 brands.

我們的業務現金流充裕。我們會不時投資於極具吸引力的高價值酒店管理或特許經營協議。此外，我們也會收購並打造優秀的品牌和業務。過去五年，我們新增了五個品牌，而即將完成的喜達屋交易將使我們再增加11個品牌。

But if we can't find an attractive investment we return cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Over the past five years, we have returned nearly $7.5 billion to shareholders repurchasing nearly 130 million shares at an average price of $49 per share.

但如果找不到合適的投資項目，我們會透過分紅和股票回購的方式將現金回饋給股東。過去五年，我們已向股東返還了近75億美元，以每股49美元的平均價格回購了近1.3億股股票。

We remain committed to minimizing owned assets and maximizing returns to shareholders. Our pretax return on invested capital was 50% in the second quarter.

我們始終致力於最大限度地減少自有資產，並最大限度地提高股東回報。第二季度，我們的稅前投資報酬率為50%。

Before I turn things over to Leeny, I would like to say I am incredibly impressed with the people at Starwood. Despite the disruption and uncertainty they have experienced over the last 15 months, the Starwood team has done a great job accelerating their development pipeline, spinning off Vistana, launching new marketing initiatives and opening nearly 125 hotels all while also taking care of the guest and managing the everyday business. Thank you.

在把發言權交給Leeny之前，我想說，我對喜達屋的員工印象深刻。儘管過去15個月他們經歷了許多挑戰和不確定性，喜達屋團隊依然出色地完成了各項工作，包括加速推進發展計劃、分拆Vistana、推出新的市場營銷舉措以及開設近125家酒店，同時還兼顧了賓客服務和日常運營。謝謝！

I would also like to say that I have never been more proud of Marriott associates. This team has done a lot of transactions over the last five years from the spinoff of Marriott Vacations Worldwide in 2011 to the more recent acquisitions of AC Hotels, Gaylord, Protea and Delta. With each of these transactions, Marriott associates worked hard to first execute the transaction and then capture the strategic value of the deal all while growing and managing our existing business.

我還要說，我從未像現在這樣為萬豪的員工感到驕傲。在過去五年裡，這個團隊完成了許多交易，從2011年萬豪度假酒店集團的分拆，到最近對AC酒店、蓋洛德酒店、普羅蒂亞酒店和德爾塔酒店的收購。在每項交易中，萬豪的員工都付出了巨大的努力，首先是成功執行交易，然後是充分挖掘交易的戰略價值，同時還要發展和管理我們現有的業務。

The Starwood transaction should be completed in the coming weeks bringing these terrific teams together. Both the Marriott and Starwood teams have done exhaustive planning to get ready and we are excited by our prospects. While we will see a lot of progress in the near-term, we expect that full integration will be a two-year project.

預計未來幾週內，喜達屋收購案將完成，屆時兩支優秀的團隊將匯合。萬豪和喜達屋的團隊都已做好充分的準備，我們對未來的前景充滿信心。雖然短期內我們將看到許多進展，但我們預計全面整合仍需兩年時間。

We are bullish about the power of the combined company. Starwood is known for its very strong brands, marketing know-how and outstanding frequent traveler program. Marriott has a proven track record in creating and growing leading brands, improving underperforming brands and expanding distribution. The combination of Marriott and Starwood should bring even more including cost savings in G&A and hotel operations and revenue opportunities. We expect to accelerate the growth of Starwood's great brands and the ultimate combination of our rewards program and Starwood Preferred Guest will create the most compelling frequent traveler program in the industry by far.

我們對合併後公司的實力充滿信心。喜達屋以其強大的品牌、卓越的行銷能力和傑出的常旅客計畫而聞名。萬豪在打造和發展領先品牌、改善業績不佳的品牌以及拓展分銷管道方面擁有豐富的經驗。萬豪與喜達屋的合併將帶來更多優勢，包括降低一般及行政成本和飯店營運成本，以及創造更多收入機會。我們預期加速喜達屋旗下優秀品牌的成長，並將我們的獎勵計畫與喜達屋優先顧客計畫完美結合，打造業界最具吸引力的常旅客計畫。

Now I would like to turn things over to Leeny to talk more about our second-quarter results. Leeny?

現在我想把麥克風交給莉妮，讓她詳細談談我們第二季的業績。莉妮？

Thanks, Arne. In the second quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.96, a 10% increase from the prior year. Adjusted for the Starwood transaction expenses, diluted earnings per share totaled $1.03, an 18% increase from the prior year. Adjusted EPS was about $0.04 to $0.05 ahead of the midpoint of our guidance. Our fees were about $0.02 to $0.03 below those expectations due to weaker than expected RevPAR and lower than expected franchise relicensing fees.

謝謝，Arne。第二季度，我們公佈的稀釋後每股收益為0.96美元，較上年同期成長10%。扣除喜達屋交易費用後，稀釋後每股收益為1.03美元，較上年同期成長18%。調整後的每股盈餘比我們先前預期的中位數高出約0.04至0.05美元。由於每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)低於預期，且特許經營權續約費低於預期，我們的費用比預期低約0.02至0.03美元。

Our owned, leased and other line was up out $0.01 shy of our expectations due to slightly lower than expected branding fees. G&A came in about $0.01 favorable to expectations. The joint venture line was $0.01 to $0.02 better than expected largely due to strong hotel performance.

由於品牌推廣費略低於預期，我們的自有、租賃及其他業務收入比預期少了0.01美元。一般及行政費用比預期高出約0.01美元。合資企業收入比預期高出0.01至0.02美元，主要得益於酒店業績強勁。

Finally, our tax rate generated $0.05 to $0.06 of better than expected EPS due to some favorable discrete tax items.

最後，由於一些有利的個別稅收項目，我們的稅率帶來了比預期高出 0.05 至 0.06 美元的每股盈餘。

Worldwide constant dollars system-wide RevPAR rose roughly 3%. For our Company-managed hotels, worldwide house profit margins increased 60 basis points. In North America, Company-managed RevPAR rose 3.6% and house profit margins rose 100 basis point. House profit margins benefited from productivity gains and lower energy costs.

全球範圍內，以不變美元計算的系統平均每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）成長約3%。公司自營酒店的全球平均利潤率成長60個基點。在北美地區，公司自營飯店的RevPAR成長3.6%，平均利潤率成長100個基點。平均利潤率的提升得益於生產效率的提高和能源成本的降低。

On a system-wide basis, North America system-wide RevPAR rose 3.2% in the quarter with particular strength in Los Angeles, New Orleans and Atlanta. Transient RevPAR rose 2% in the quarter as we maintained occupancy by opening discount channels. Group RevPAR rose 7% and catering sales increased more than 5% in the quarter. Overall group cancellation rates remained normal and attendance at group meetings met our expectations.

北美地區整體RevPAR本季成長3.2%，其中洛杉磯、新奧爾良和亞特蘭大表現尤為強勁。散客RevPAR在本季成長2%，這得益於我們透過開放折扣管道維持了入住率。團體RevPAR成長7%，餐飲銷售額在本季成長超過5%。團體整體取消率維持正常水平，團體會議出席人數符合預期。

Group business continues to look solid for the second half of 2016 with system-wide North America group revenue paced up 5% although the timing of holidays will influence quarterly comparisons.

2016 年下半年集團業務依然穩健，北美地區集團整體營收成長 5%，儘管假日的安排會影響季度比較。

Third-quarter system-wide group revenue pace in North America is up 9% while fourth-quarter pace is flat year-over-year. Encouragingly, 2017 group pace is up 7%.

北美地區第三季集團整體營收成長率為9%，而第四季成長速度與去年同期持平。令人鼓舞的是，2017年全年集團營收成長率為7%。

Outside North America, second-quarter system-wide comparable RevPAR rose 2% on a constant dollar basis or declined 1% using local currency. In Europe, constant dollar system-wide RevPAR increased 3%. Germany's RevPAR rose 9% with strong group business. RevPAR in Spain rose at double-digit rate benefiting from a stronger economy and large numbers of guests that would have visited hotels in the Middle East in the past. RevPAR in France, Belgium and Turkey remained very weak.

除北美以外，第二季系統整體可比RevPAR以固定匯率計算成長2%，以當地貨幣計算則下降1%。歐洲地區系統整體RevPAR以固定匯率計算成長3%。德國RevPAR成長9%，主要得益於強勁的團體業務。西班牙RevPAR實現兩位數成長，受惠於經濟走強以及大量原本會入住中東飯店的客人湧入。法國、比利時和土耳其的RevPAR依然疲軟。

System-wide RevPAR in the Asia-Pacific region increased nearly 6%. South Korea's RevPAR increased dramatically on easy comparison to last year's MERS outbreak. RevPAR in Greater China rose 3% with very strong results in Shanghai and Beijing and modest growth in Hong Kong. Economic growth increased RevPAR in India by 10% in the quarter.

亞太地區系統整體RevPAR成長近6%。韓國的RevPAR成長顯著，主要得益於與去年MERS疫情期間的同比數據對比。大中華區RevPAR成長3%，其中上海和北京表現特別強勁，香港則成長較為溫和。經濟成長推動印度RevPAR本季成長10%。

We saw occupancy declines in the Caribbean and Latin America largely due to weak economic conditions and the impact of the Zika virus. Occupancy rates were also lower in the Middle East and Africa region due to the earlier start of Ramadan, oversupply in Dubai, ongoing political unrest in many countries and the lower price of oil.

加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區的入住率下降，主要原因是經濟形勢疲軟以及寨卡病毒的影響。中東和非洲地區的入住率也較低，原因包括齋戒月提前開始、杜拜房源過剩、許多國家持續的政治動盪以及油價下跌。

Total fee revenue in the second quarter increased 4% with incentive fees up 16%. Base fees declined 3% due to a tough comparison to deferred fees recognized in the year-ago quarter and unfavorable FX rates. Franchise fees increased 6% despite $3 million less in relicensing fees reflecting fewer asset sales among our franchise community. Total incentive fees increased 16% with North America hotels incentive fees up 22%.

第二季總費用收入成長4%，其中激勵費用成長16%。由於去年同期確認的遞延費用基數較高以及不利的匯率影響，基本費用下降3%。儘管特許經營費減少了300萬美元（反映出特許經營者的資產出售數量減少），但特許經營費仍增加了6%。總激勵費用成長16%，其中北美飯店激勵費用成長22%。

Worldwide, 64% of our managed hotels paid incentive fees in the quarter compared to 59% in the year-ago quarter. In North America alone, 62% of managed hotels paid incentive fees compared to 55% in the year-ago quarter. Owned, leased and other revenues net of direct expenses increased 20% in the quarter reflecting renovations at the Tokyo Ritz-Carlton and the Renaissance Jaragua, somewhat offset by the sale of our St. Thomas Ritz-Carlton last year.

在全球範圍內，本季我們管理的飯店中有 64% 支付了激勵費用，而去年同期這一比例為 59%。光是在北美地區，就有 62% 的管理飯店支付了激勵費用，而去年同期這一比例為 55%。扣除直接費用後，本季自有、租賃及其他收入淨額增長了 20%，這主要得益於東京麗思卡爾頓酒店和雅拉瓜萬麗酒店的翻新，但部分被去年出售聖托馬斯麗思卡爾頓酒店所抵消。

In addition, results reflect an easy comparison to last year's pre-opening costs for the New York Edition hotel.

此外，結果與去年紐約艾迪遜酒店的開業前成本很容易進行比較。

Branding fees increased 14% with higher cardholder sales from our cobranded credit cards and higher sales of Ritz-Carlton residences. Reported general and administrative costs increased 11% or 1% when adjusted for the $14 million of Starwood-related transition and transaction costs in the second quarter.

品牌推廣費成長了14%，主要得益於聯名信用卡持卡人消費額的成長以及麗茲卡爾頓公寓銷售額的成長。報告的一般及行政費用增加了11%，若扣除第二季與喜達屋相關的1400萬美元過渡及交易費用，則增長1%。

Reported operating margins totaled 10% for both the 2016 and 2015 quarters. Adjusting for cost reimbursement and Starwood transition and transaction costs, operating margins reached 53% in 2016 compared to 50% in the prior year in the second quarter.

2016 年及 2015 年兩季的報告營業利潤率總計均為 10%。經成本補償及喜達屋過渡及交易成本調整後，2016 年第二季的營業利益率達 53%，而去年同期為 50%。

Interest expense increased to $57 million in the second quarter. Excluding the $11 million cost of a bridge facility commitment, adjusted interest expense totaled $46 million. In preparation for the upcoming transaction, we raised $1.5 billion in senior unsecured debt during the second quarter. The 5.5- and 10-year notes were priced at the lowest interest cost for comparable maturities in the Company's history. These offerings increased our long-term debt to $4.1 billion, paid off our outstanding commercial paper balances and increased our cash and cash equivalents to nearly $700 million.

第二季利息支出增至5,700萬美元。若不計入1,100萬美元的過渡性融資承諾費用，調整後的利息支出總額為4,600萬美元。為籌備即將進行的交易，我們在第二季發行了15億美元的優先無抵押債券。 5.5年期和10年期債券的定價為公司歷史上同等期限債券的最低利率。此次發行使我們的長期債務增加至41億美元，償還了未償付的商業票據餘額，並將我們的現金及現金等價物增加至近7億美元。

Second quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 8% over the prior year and adjusted EBITDA margins totaled 65%.

第二季調整後 EBITDA 比去年同期成長 8%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率總計 65%。

Making an EPS projection for 2016 is difficult. To assist the modelers however, we have provided some P&L guidance for Marriott's legacy business for the next two quarters. For the third quarter, we expect worldwide system-wide constant dollar RevPAR will increase 3% to 4% benefiting from the favorable holiday pattern and the strong group bookings including the Olympics in Brazil. Total fee revenue for the Marriott standalone business could total $495 million to $500 million, 6% to 8% growth over the 2015 third-quarter and adjusted EBITDA is expected to total $476 million to $481 million, a 10% to 12% growth over the prior year.

預測2016年每股盈餘(EPS)並非易事。為了幫助模型建構者，我們提供了萬豪傳統業務未來兩季的損益指引。我們預計，第三季全球系統統一的固定美元RevPAR將成長3%至4%，這主要得益於有利的假期模式以及包括巴西奧運在內的強勁團體預訂。萬豪獨立業務的總費用收入預計為4.95億美元至5億美元，較2015年第三季增長6%至8%；調整後EBITDA預計為4.76億美元至4.81億美元，較上年同期增長10%至12%。

For the fourth quarter we expect worldwide system-wide constant dollar RevPAR will moderate to a 2% to 3% increase reflecting tougher holiday comparisons in North America.

我們預計第四季度全球系統整體以固定美元計算的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將放緩至 2% 至 3% 的增長，這反映出北美假期季節的同比數據較為嚴峻。

Total fee revenue for the Marriott standalone business could totaled $485 million to $490 million, a 7% to 8% growth over the 2015 fourth quarter.

萬豪獨立業務的總費用收入可能達到 4.85 億美元至 4.9 億美元，比 2015 年第四季成長 7% 至 8%。

Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter is expected to total $461 million to $471 million, a 15% to 17% increase over the prior year. We expect worldwide system-wide RevPAR will increase roughly 3% for the full-year 2016. Given our expected 6.5% worldwide net unit growth and modest increases in G&A, we anticipate that our legacy business will generate roughly $1.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the full year, 10% more than in 2015. We expect incentive fees to grow at a midteens rate.

預計第四季調整後 EBITDA 總額為 4.61 億美元至 4.71 億美元，較上年同期成長 15% 至 17%。我們預計 2016 年全年全球系統平均每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將成長約 3%。鑑於我們預期全球淨新增客房數將成長 6.5%，且一般及行政費用 (G&A) 成長幅度不大，我們預計傳統業務全年調整後 EBITDA 將約為 19 億美元，較 2015 年成長 10%。我們預計激勵費用將以 15% 左右的速度成長。

Compared to our full-year 2016 adjusted EBITDA forecast from last quarter, our current adjusted EBITDA outlook is $36 million lower at the midpoint. With more modest RevPAR growth, some construction delays pushing hotel openings into early 2017 and fewer asset sales among our franchise community, we have reduced our fee outlook by $40 million including $10 million in lower franchise relicensing fees.

與我們上季發布的2016年全年調整後EBITDA預測相比，我們目前的調整後EBITDA預期中位數下調了3,600萬美元。由於RevPAR成長較為溫和，部分飯店建設延期導致開幕時間延後至2017年初，以及加盟商資產出售數量減少，我們將費用預期下調了4,000萬美元，其中包括1,000萬美元的加盟續約費。

Elsewhere on the P&L, we reduced our owned, leased and other net forecast a bit due to some fine tuning of our branding fee estimate while our new forecast for G&A is about $10 million better than our prior forecast.

在損益表的其他方面，由於對品牌推廣費估算進行了一些微調，我們略微下調了自有、租賃和其他淨額預測，而我們對一般及行政費用的新預測比之前的預測高出約 1000 萬美元。

For the Marriott legacy business, 2016 investment spending could total $450 million to $550 million including about $100 million in maintenance spending. Excluding Starwood, we anticipate recycling $200 million to $250 million through asset sales and loan repayments during 2016.

對萬豪傳統業務而言，2016年的投資支出總額可能在4.5億美元至5.5億美元之間，其中包括約1億美元的維修支出。若不計入喜達屋業務，我們預計2016年將以資產出售和償還貸款的方式回收2億美元至2.5億美元。

Given that transition and transaction costs are uncertain at this point, we aren't including these costs in our 2016 guidance but expect to break out such expenses as actual results are reported as we did this quarter.

鑑於目前過渡和交易成本尚不確定，我們暫未將這些成本計入 2016 年業績指引，但預計會像本季度一樣，在公佈實際業績時單獨列出這些費用。

Like you, we rely on Starwood's publicly disclosed forecast of their RevPAR growth, unit growth and adjusted EBITDA for their business. When the transaction closes, we expect to assume Starwood's outstanding debt, issue roughly 136 million Marriott shares and increase net debt by roughly $3.5 billion for the cash component of the deal.

和您一樣，我們也依賴喜達屋公開披露的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）增長、客房數量增長和調整後EBITDA預測來評估其業務。交易完成後，我們預計將承擔喜達屋的未償債務，發行約1.36億股萬豪股票，並將淨債務增加約35億美元，作為交易現金部分的支付。

Given we and Starwood are still two separate companies, we can't comment on the pace of Starwood's asset sales in 2016 but with the completion of the transaction, you can be sure we will focus very quickly on getting back to our targeted leverage levels as quickly as possible.

鑑於我們和喜達屋仍然是兩家獨立的公司，我們無法評論喜達屋在 2016 年的資產出售速度，但隨著交易的完成，您可以放心，我們將很快專注於盡快恢復到我們設定的槓桿水平。

With regard to future G&A spending, makes like to have our new organization largely in place by year-end 2016 although some transition costs will carry over into 2017 and even a bit into 2018 as we integrate our systems and technology platforms.

關於未來的 G&A 支出，我們希望在 2016 年底前新組織基本上到位，儘管一些過渡成本將延續到 2017 年，甚至會延續到 2018 年，因為我們需要整合我們的系統和技術平台。

We continue to believe we will achieve $250 million in steady-state annual G&A savings. Once the transaction is complete, we will work to prepare 2015 and 2016 pro forma adjusted quarterly income statements to reflect the combination. These statements should be ready sometime this fall.

我們仍然相信，我們將實現每年2.5億美元的穩定期一般及行政費用節約。交易完成後，我們將著手編制2015年和2016年的調整後季度損益表，以反映合併後的情況。這些報表預計將於今年秋季完成。

We believe the transaction will close in the coming weeks. And one more housekeeping matter for you, our typical schedule for declaring a third-quarter dividend is immediately following our August Board meeting scheduled this year for next week, August 4. While we plan to pay a dividend in the third quarter, the announcement of the third-quarter record and payment date may be delayed a bit until there is greater clarity around the actual transaction closing date. We appreciate your patience as we work through these issues and particularly appreciate your interest in Marriott.

我們相信交易將在未來幾週內完成。另外還有一件事需要說明，我們通常會在8月份的董事會會議結束後立即宣布第三季股息，今年的董事會會議定於下週，即8月4日舉行。雖然我們計劃在第三季派發股息，但第三季股權登記日和派息日的公佈可能會稍有延遲，直到交易完成日期更加明朗。感謝您在我們處理這些問題期間的耐心等待，也特別感謝您對萬豪的關注。

So that we can speak to as many of you as possible, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

為了盡可能與大家交流，我們要求每位提問者只提一個問題，並提出一個後續問題。

Crystal, we will take questions down.

Crystal，我們會把問題記下來。

(Operator Instructions). Harry Curtis, Nomura.

（操作說明）。哈里·柯蒂斯，野村證券。

Good morning, everyone. Arne, your comments about the sequential trend in the economy were reasonably downbeat yet your level of confidence seems to be pretty strong relative to the second half and your forward bookings in group for next year are fairly decent. What gives you the confidence that it actually won't get worse from here because history does tell us that it has got a reasonable shot at getting worse.

大家早安。阿恩，你對經濟週期走勢的評論相當悲觀，但你對下半年的信心似乎相當強，而且你集團明年的預訂情況也相當不錯。是什麼讓你確信情況不會進一步惡化？畢竟歷史經驗告訴我們，情況很有可能會變得更糟。

Good morning, Harry. Obviously the strength of the economy is the biggest question I think in terms of forecasting how we are likely to perform in the coming quarters and to some extent is the place maybe a good beat us up a little bit over the second quarter. I think as we guided a quarter ago, we had an overly rosy view about the strength of GDP in the United States particularly and as a consequence, we continued to stick with our 3% to 5% RevPAR growth for the full year that we had provided at the beginning of the year.

早上好，哈利。顯然，經濟情勢的強勁程度是預測未來幾季業績的最大問題，我認為經濟狀況在某種程度上可能會對我們第二季的業績造成一些影響。我認為，正如我們上個季度的業績指引，我們對美國GDP的成長動能過於樂觀，因此，我們仍然維持年初給出的全年3%至5%的RevPAR成長預期。

I think today we have obviously experienced actual second-quarter number which came in essentially right at the low end of our guidance in the United States and a little bit below globally when you factor in some of what is happening around the world. And that I think is fundamentally a reflection of lower GDP growth in the United States than what we anticipated. But it is still positive GDP growth.

我認為今天我們顯然已經看到了第二季度的實際數據，在美國，這一數字基本上處於我們預期範圍的下限，而考慮到世界各地正在發生的一些事情，全球數據則略低於預期。我認為這從根本上反映了美國GDP成長低於我們的預期。但即便如此，GDP仍然實現了正成長。

I think to some extent the question you and we could ask of ourselves is are we more solid, more confident in the kind of guidance we are giving today than what we gave a quarter ago? And I think the best answer to that is that we now are making forecasts based on essentially the current pace of GDP growth in the United States which is weak not on a more rosy scenario.

我認為在某種程度上，你我都可以捫心自問：我們今天給的預測是否比上個季度更穩健、更有信心？我認為最好的答案是，我們現在的預測基本上是基於美國目前疲軟的GDP成長速度，而不是基於更樂觀的預期。

Is it possible the US economy performs worse than that? Of course it is but when you look at the range of economic data that comes out including recent employment reports and consumer confidence reports and corporate profits and some of those sorts of things, it looks to us like it is a reasonably good bet that the economy will continue to grow albeit grow maybe somewhat anemically.

美國經濟表現是否有可能更糟？當然有可能，但當我們審視包括近期就業報告、消費者信心報告、企業利潤等在內的一系列經濟數據時，我們認為經濟將持續成長（儘管成長可能略顯疲軟）的可能性相當大。

And there does not appear to be data out there which would suggest that it is getting meaningfully weaker from a GDP perspective but that is the question to continue to keep your eye on.

目前似乎還沒有數據表明，從 GDP 的角度來看，經濟正在顯著走弱，但這仍然是一個需要繼續關注的問題。

Thank you. My follow-up question is how quickly do think you can get to your target leverage ratio? The reason I ask that is at that point you will be generating some substantial free cash flow. And if you could give us your thoughts on possibly taking the dividend up which investors seem to be paying more or attaching more value to these days.

謝謝。我的後續問題是，您認為多久能達到目標槓桿率？我這麼問是因為，到那時您將產生相當可觀的自由現金流。另外，如果您能談論提高股息的想法，那就太好了，因為投資者現在似乎更願意支付更高的股息，或者說更重視股息。

Thanks, Harry. As I said in my comments, we will obviously as soon as we get going with this transaction and close, we will be working on driving that leverage ratio down to our targeted levels of 3 to 3.25 as quickly as possible.

謝謝，哈里。正如我在評論中所說，一旦我們開始進行這筆交易並完成交割，我們顯然會盡快將槓桿率降至我們設定的3%至3.25%的目標水準。

I think you know us well and I think I would fully expect that we would be engaging in share repurchase and enjoying the flexibility that that provides us as we kind of move forward. We always will continue to look at dividends but for the moment, we are comfortable with our roughly 30% payout ratio and would expect that once we get the target leverage ratios down to the levels that we like that we would begin being back in the market for share repurchase.

我想您很了解我們，也完全可以預料到我們會進行股票回購，並利用這種方式為我們未來的發展提供靈活性。我們會一直關注分紅，但目前我們對大約30%的派息率感到滿意，並預計一旦我們將目標槓桿率降至我們理想的水平，就會重新開始股票回購。

Very good, thank you.

非常好，謝謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Great, thanks. I am curious about the decline in the gross room additions for 2016, down about 50 basis points but I guess just given that we are halfway through the year, it seems like a lot of those projects would have been just sort of months from opening so I'm just wondering how that supply could come down so close to when those additions were expected to hit?

太好了，謝謝。我對2016年新增客房總數下降約50個基點感到好奇，但考慮到現在已經是年中了，很多項目似乎都只差幾個月就能開業了，所以我很想知道為什麼這些新增項目預計開業的時間臨近時，供應量卻下降了這麼多？

I think it is a good question, Robin, and good morning. As we put out in the press release and the prepared remarks, we have seen really some construction pace expand and I would think about Europe and North America as being primary examples of that and that is about construction workers and supply and to some extent maybe a little bit about how essential it is to get open instantly. And I think in some respects, that in a somewhat weaker market, somewhat more anxious market that allowing the construction to take a little longer is a rational thing that some of our partners are doing. And as a consequence, we see that the construction pace has expanded just a little bit.

羅賓，你問得好，早安。正如我們在新聞稿和準備好的演講稿中提到的，我們看到一些地區的建築速度確實加快了，我認為歐洲和北美是這方面的主要例子。這與建築工人和物資供應有關，也與盡快動工的緊迫性有關。我認為，在市場略顯疲軟、略顯焦慮的情況下，允許工期稍長一些是理性的做法，我們的一些伴侶也正在這樣做。因此，我們看到建築速度略有加快。

We are not seeing cancellations of projects however and I think generally what we are talking about is projects that formerly we would have expected to open probably in the fourth quarter of the year, opening sometime in 2017.

我們並沒有看到項目被取消，而且我認為我們通常所說的項目是指那些我們以前預計會在今年第四季度開業的項目，也就是 2017 年的某個時候開業的項目。

We have looked really hard at the incoming deals in our development pipeline and I think we have been pleasantly surprised to see that new signings in most regions of the world are comparable if not up a little bit compared to the gangbuster year we had in 2015 including new deals signed in North America. And so we feel that actually it shows continued strong interest in growing with our brands and is not really a fundamental change but is a bit of fine tuning on whether we will open before or after New Year's Eve.

我們認真審視了正在開發中的項目，令人驚訝的是，全球大部分地區的簽約量與2015年的強勁勢頭相比，即使沒有完全持平，也至少略有增長，其中包括北美地區的新簽約。因此，我們認為這實際上表明客戶對我們品牌發展的持續濃厚興趣，這並非根本性的改變，而只是在新店開業時間（新年夜之前還是之後）上做了一些微調。

Thank you. Then just as a follow-up, I am just curious that your guidance for the full year being now at kind of a single point that that plus 3%. Typically you give a range maybe earlier in the year of that sort of 200 basis point spread but even closing in on the year maybe 100 basis point spread. I guess just given the increased uncertainty and visibility, I am just curious why go with a more narrow range when maybe your visibility would theoretically be a little bit worse?

謝謝。我還有一個後續問題，就是您目前給出的全年業績指引似乎只有一個點，即在此基礎上加3%。通常情況下，您會在年初給出一個區間，例如200個基點左右，即使接近年底，區間也可能縮小到100個基點左右。我想，考慮到目前不確定性和可預測性都在下降，為什麼現在給出的區間會更窄？理論上來說，可預測性可能會因此降低一些。

That is a good question. We have of course talked about that and often we start the year with a 2 point range and I think fairly if you look back over the number of years we have been doing this, we probably keep a 2 point range longer than we should as the year progresses.

這是一個很好的問題。我們當然討論過這個問題，通常我們會在年初將價格區間設定為2個百分點，但我認為，回顧我們過去幾年的做法，隨著一年的進行，我們可能維持2個百分點價格區間的時間過長了。

We thought about a 2 point range here. The fact of the matter is to have a 2 point range at this stage of the year implies the low end a much, much worse potential performance than we think is even potential. And on the high end in many respects requires us to envision a performance that is more optimistic than we think is really probable.

我們考慮過設定2個百分點的區間。但事實上，在目前這個階段設定2個百分點的區間，意味著最低區間代表的潛在表現遠比我們想像的要糟糕得多。而最高區間在許多方面都要求我們設想一個比我們認為實際可能的表現更樂觀的局面。

So as we went through this and you can see obviously we give a full point range in our guidance for Q3 and then again for Q4, to some extent you can do the math and see how that impacts it. In a sense you could say that our roughly 3 is kind of like a 2.5 to 3.5 which would be the more normal range to look at. But we think we should be fairly close to 3 as the year comes in based on group and our present expectations about GDP growth.

所以，正如我們所分析的，我們在第三季和第四季的業績指引中都給出了一個完整的點數範圍，您可以自行計算一下，看看這會對結果產生怎樣的影響。從某種意義上說，我們給出的大約3個百分點的預期，實際上相當於2.5到3.5個百分點，後者才是更常見的區間。但我們認為，隨著年底的到來，基於集團的業績以及我們目前對GDP成長的預期，我們的預期應該會比較接近3個百分點。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Joseph Greff, JPMorgan.

Joseph Greff，摩根大通。

Good morning, guys. Just a question on the timing or how you are thinking about the timing of accelerating your capital return. I think a quarter ago you mentioned that maybe share buybacks can resume at some point in the fourth quarter. Are you still thinking along the same lines? And then just in terms of the capital return and accelerating that, how contingent is that on Starwood owned hotel asset dispositions?

各位早安。關於加速資本回報的時機，或者說你們是如何考慮的，我有個問題。我記得一個季度前你們提到過，股票回購可能會在第四季某個時候恢復。你們現在的想法還是一樣嗎？另外，就加速資本回報而言，這在多大程度上取決於喜達屋旗下飯店資產的處置情況？

Great, thanks, Joe. So obviously we would have loved to have been closed by now in terms of having this call. And as you move through the year, the later and later to close you get the harder it is to know exactly where we will be three months from now or four months from now given we haven't closed yet.

太好了，謝謝喬。顯然，我們很希望現在就能完成交易，這樣就能接到這個電話了。但隨著時間的推移，交易完成的時間越晚，就越難準確預測三個月或四個月後的情況，因為我們還沒完成交易。

I am not going to pretend to know all of the details about exactly where every transaction is on the asset sales side with Starwood and so we will need to get in there as soon as the asset -- as soon as the deal closes and evaluate exactly where it is.

我不會假裝了解喜達屋資產出售方面每一筆交易的具體細節，所以我們需要在資產——交易完成後立即介入，並評估其具體情況。

I think we do continue to feel very comfortable that as quickly as we can, we will be back in the market and whether that frankly happens to be towards the end of the Q4 or the beginning of Q1 does depend to some extent on exactly which deals close in the fourth quarter and first quarter. But I think give or take a few months, I think we see it exactly the same place we did before. It is just again, we don't have specific visibility on exact timing of the closing of asset sales.

我認為我們仍然很有信心，我們會盡快重返市場。至於具體是在第四季末還是第一季初，在某種程度上取決於第四季和第一季最終完成的交易。但我認為，前後幾個月左右，我們的處境應該和之前一樣。只是，我們目前無法準確預測資產出售的完成時間。

And to get from where as we said before, we would expect to be somewhere in the ballpark of 3.6 and then want to get down to 3 to 3.25 and if we don't close until sometime in August to get there by the end of Q4 definitely depends on some asset sales. So we will be updating you as quickly as we can.

正如我們之前所說，我們預計目前的利率水準會在3.6左右，然後希望降至3到3.25。如果交易要到八月才能完成，那麼能否在第四季末實現目標，很大程度上取決於一些資產的出售情況。我們會盡快向您報告最新進展。

Great. Thank you. Then just a follow-up on a question regarding some of the delays in these project openings. Arne, would you characterize those delays as being driven more by economic uncertainty or you talked about workers and things like that? Can you sort of help understand or amplify that please?

好的，謝謝。接下來我想問一個關於專案開工延誤的問題。 Arne，您認為這些延誤主要是由於經濟不確定性造成的，還是像您剛才提到的工人短缺之類的原因？能詳細解釋一下嗎？

Remember this is the collective impact of decisions that are being made by our partners in many respects, not by us. But I would say that it is probably in the US more about construction pace and the level of construction that is going on around the country. I think in somewhere like the Middle East and Africa, it is probably a little bit more about a sense that the market essentially you don't need to rush to get it done. But they continue to move forward with it. I really don't think it is a significant or cataclysmic change.

請記住，這在很大程度上是我們合作夥伴決策的集體影響，而非我們自己的決策。但我認為，在美國，這可能更多地與施工速度和全國各地的施工規模有關。而在中東和非洲等地，這可能更與一種市場心態有關，即基本上不需要急於求成。但他們仍然在繼續推進專案。我真的不認為這是一個重大或災難性的變化。

Good enough. Thank you.

足夠了。謝謝。

Felicia Hendrix, Barclays.

費利西亞·亨德里克斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks. I will start with a bit of a housekeeping question. Just you had mentioned that you were expecting the phase 2 of the review in China to be complete by August 9. Is that it or is there another phase?

謝謝。我先問個比較具體的問題。您之前提到預計中國第二階段審查將於8月9日完成。是這樣嗎？還是還有其他階段？

The Chinese government does have the ability to take deals into a phase 3 and obviously we can't speak for the Chinese government and have due regard for the fact that they've got to run their process in a way that meets with their needs.

中國政府確實有能力將交易推進到第三階段，顯然我們不能代表中國政府發言，而且我們也應該充分考慮到，他們必須按照符合自身需求的方式來推進流程。

Having said that, we obviously are in communication with the staff over there. We have provided very, very significant amounts of information over the course of the last six or eight months, something like that. And believe that the information that they need they have in hand and based on what we hear, we are optimistic again that we should be done in the next few weeks.

話雖如此，我們顯然一直與那邊的工作人員保持溝通。在過去的六到八個月裡，我們提供了非常非常多的資訊。我們相信他們需要的資訊他們已經掌握在手，而且根據我們了解到的情況，我們再次樂觀地認為，這項工作應該會在未來幾週內完成。

That is helpful, thank you. Getting to larger picture questions, I was just wondering, Arne, you talked about and you clarified in some earlier comments about how you have revised your view of how you are using GDP to generate your guidance going forward and that was helpful. So kind of in light of that as you look toward the second half of the year and given what is going on in business transient demand and just in the corporate world, I was just wondering what level of business transient demand you are factoring into the guidance for the second half?

這很有幫助，謝謝。關於更宏觀的問題，Arne，我只是想問一下，你之前提到過，也解釋過你如何調整了對GDP的運用方式，以便更好地制定未來的業績指引，這很有幫助。有鑑於此，考慮到下半年商務旅行需求以及企業界的現狀，我想知道你在下半年的業績指引中將商務旅行需求的水平考慮在了什麼程度？

Yes, I'm not sure if I can answer that off the top of my head. I think the kind of pace we saw in the second quarter is more or less what we would expect to take place over the balance of the year with one significant clarification. And that is in part because of calendar timing and in part simply because of the rhythms of group business. Group is meaningfully stronger in Q3 than in Q4. Plus 10-ish in Q3 and a flattish in Q4. Obviously that puts us around plus 5 for the second half of the year as a whole.

是的，我不太確定能否立即回答這個問題。我認為第二季的成長速度大致符合我們對今年剩餘時間成長的預期，但有一點需要特別說明。這部分是由於日曆時間安排，部分是由於集團業務的節奏。集團在第三季的表現明顯強於第四季。第三季成長約10%，而第四季則基本持平。顯然，這使得我們下半年的整體成長約為5%。

So I would expect that we will see group be -- when you combine those two quarters, a more powerful driver of RevPAR growth than transient business. Transient of course includes both corporate travel mostly during the week and leisure travel mostly during the weekend. We would continue to expect that leisure travel is going to be stronger than business travel and that business travel will be kind of flattish, maybe up a point or two depending on the way things go.

因此，我預計，如果將這兩個季度的數據合併計算，團體旅遊將成為推動每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）增長的更強勁動力，而散客旅遊則不然。散客旅遊當然包括主要在工作日進行的商務旅行和主要在週末進行的休閒旅遊。我們仍預期休閒旅遊將強於商務旅行，而商務旅行則基本持平，或許會根據市場情況略有成長。

I think if you wanted to be optimistic you might say that we are bearing some of the consequences of the incredibly pessimistic mood that corporate America had as 2016 began. Think about our perspectives in the first quarter and that is maybe a little bit of a lingering impact. And if there is, because of the economic data that is coming out, or corporate profits or other things a little bit less anxiety going forward, maybe we could see that improve a little bit. But again, we are essentially forecasting a kind of steady-state, weak corporate transient demand. Not falling off a cliff in any respect but just sort of continuing to bump along.

我認為，如果想保持樂觀，或許可以說我們正在承受2016年初美國企業界極度悲觀情緒帶來的部分後果。想想我們第一季的預期，那可能就是某種程度上的延續影響。如果經濟數據、企業利潤或其他因素能夠緩解一些焦慮情緒，或許情況會有所改善。但總的來說，我們預測的是一種相對穩定的、疲軟的短期企業需求。不會斷崖式下跌，只是會繼續平穩運行。

And then just to kind of understand on the leisure side what we are looking at for the second half, I was just wondering how leisure transient grew in the first half and also how that compared to last year?

然後，為了更了解休閒旅遊方面下半年的發展趨勢，我想知道上半年休閒旅遊的成長情況，以及與去年同期相比情況如何？

Leisure transient. So let's see here, we've got a whole bunch of quarters in front of us. Let me make sure we are getting this right. We are probably -- leisure transient year to date in the 4-ish range, something like 4% growth year-over-year. When you look at -- so I guess that gives you a comparison to last year as well.

休閒短期旅行。讓我們來看看，這裡有很多季度的數據。讓我確認一下我們理解得是否正確。今年迄今為止，休閒短期旅行的成長率大概在4%左右，也就是年增4%左右。這樣一來，你就可以和去年同期進行比較了。

What about for all of last year? How did that grow?

那麼去年全年的情況如何？成長情況如何？

You mean last year compared to 2014?

你是說去年和2014年比較嗎？

No, I just mean how did leisure transient grew -- yes, what was the leisure transient growth last year?

不，我只是想問休閒短期客運量成長情況如何——是的，去年的休閒短期客運量成長了多少？

We should make sure we get that for you accurately.

我們應該確保準確地為您提供這些資訊。

Give me a call back and we will see if we can pull that together.

請給我回電話，我們看看能不能把這件事辦成。

I think 4% is the number you can be fairly clear about now year to date first half of the year about 4% leisure growth.

我認為，今年上半年休閒娛樂成長率約為 4%，這個數字現在可以比較明確地確定。

Okay, that is helpful. Just one last quickie, some of the companies that have reported so far have said that they are looking for -- or they are seeing weaker short-term group bookings. You gave us a lot of data on your group business and the pace and stuff and that is helpful. Just wondering if you have seen any difference between kind of small group versus large groups, are you seeing any kind of difference in demand?

好的，這很有幫助。最後一個小問題，目前一些提交報告的公司表示，他們正在尋找——或者說他們發現——短期團體預訂量有所下降。您提供了大量關於團體業務、節奏等方面的數據，這很有幫助。我想問一下，您是否觀察到小型團體和大型團體在需求上有任何差異？

Yes, we do. Interestingly from month to month sometimes by size the data moves around so we have seen bigger groups probably strongest but it does vary a little bit month to month.

是的，我們有。有趣的是，數據有時會因規模大小而每月有所波動，所以我們看到規模較大的群體可能實力更強，但每月的情況確實略有不同。

I think there is a piece of this though which is about availability. We have got, we are really quite pleased to see occupancy continue to grow in Q2 delivering roughly half of our RevPAR growth. Our hotels are quite busy and we have clearly seen the booking window expand which is certainly one of the factors that would be impacting the in the year for the year group bookings.

我認為這其中一部分原因在於房源供應。我們很高興地看到第二季入住率持續成長，這貢獻了我們每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）成長的大約一半。我們的飯店目前非常繁忙，我們明顯看到預訂窗口期延長，這無疑是影響年度團體預訂量的因素之一。

Okay, thank you. Very helpful.

好的，謝謝。很有幫助。

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

肖恩凱利，美國銀行。

Good morning. Arne, I was just looking back through the very opening comments you talked about some of the commentary and the trends from some of your largest corporate customers. Was curious as you see that trend unfolding, are there any greenshoots that you guys are getting maybe anecdotally from any of those conversations as we start to lap some of the things that oil and gas and some of the other things that maybe bringing down the broader corporate sector? Anything people are talking about that probably isn't factoring into GDP yet but that give you signs of encouragement?

早安. Arne，我剛剛回顧了一下你開場白中提到的一些評論和來自你們一些大型企業客戶的趨勢。我很好奇，隨著這些趨勢的發展，你們是否從這些對話中發現了一些積極的跡象，例如我們開始逐漸擺脫石油天然氣和其他一些可能拖累整個企業行業的因素的影響？有沒有什麼人們在談論的、可能尚未計入GDP但卻讓你們感到鼓舞的跡象？

No. Still I think you look at the economic data, corporate profits and GDP growth will be the best indication to you of where that should go.

不。不過我認為，看看經濟數據，企業獲利和GDP成長將是最好的指標，能夠告訴你未來走向何方。

Greenshoots, I don't know. I guess I sort of hesitate to use that phrase anywhere. Not surprisingly though when you look underneath the averages, you will see relatively greater strength in the tech world than you will see -- to pick the other extreme -- in the oil patch. And Houston I think was down 10% if I remember right RevPAR in Q2 which is the epicenter of the oil patch in the United States obviously. And I think that is driven by that aspect of our economy.

復甦跡象？我不知道。我覺得自己不太願意用這個詞。不過，如果你仔細分析平均數據，你會發現科技業的相對強勢程度遠遠超出──舉例來說──石油業。我記得休士頓第二季的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）下降了10%，休士頓顯然是美國石油業的中心。我認為這主要受美國經濟的石油業影響。

The comparisons will get easier for oil certainly as the year goes along. I am not sure that that means any of them will view business as being robust though in a way that causes them to get back to the level of activity that they might have had two years ago, something like that.

隨著時間的推移，石油業的比較肯定會變得更容易。但我並不確定這意味著他們會認為業務已經強勁到足以讓他們恢​​復到兩年前的水平。

It does maybe mean that it shouldn't continue, it shouldn't decline from here I suppose, that might be an optimistic way of thinking about it. But again, I think looking at corporate profits, GDP growth. Those are going to be the best things that drive the averages as a whole.

這或許意味著它不該繼續這樣下去，不該再下滑了，我想這或許是比較樂觀的看法。但話說回來，我認為應該關注企業利潤和GDP成長。這些才是推動整體平均的最佳因素。

That is helpful. This one may be a little bit specific but just thinking about the sequential pattern as things unfold with all the shifts in the third quarter, could you give us a directional sense of do you expect RevPAR to improve as we move throughout the third quarter or the opposite, just sort of what you are anticipation of how 3Q shapes up on a monthly perspective?

這很有幫助。這個問題可能有點具體，但考慮到第三季各種變化帶來的趨勢，您能否大致預測一下，您認為隨著第三季的推進，RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）會改善還是會下降？您能否從月度角度預測第三季的走勢？

I think we believe August and September will be stronger than July.

我認為我們認為八月和九月的業績會比七月好。

Great. Thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Ryan Meliker, Canaccord Genuity.

Ryan Meliker，Canaccord Genuity。

Just I was hoping you guys could give us a little color on how things are progressing with your member pricing initiative. I know it wasn't in your prepared remarks but are you gaining any traction in terms of stealing customers away from the OTAs, growing your loyalty program platform? And then also any impact in the short term that is having on your RevPAR growth outlook over the back half of the year by offering the discounts?

我希望你們能簡單介紹一下會員定價計劃的進展。我知道這不在你們的發言稿裡，但你們在從線上旅行社（OTA）吸引客戶、發展會員忠誠度計劃方面是否取得了任何成效？此外，提供折扣對下半年每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）成長預期短期內有何影響？

All good questions. Thank you. We are, I know one of our principal competitors talked about this yesterday in their call. They were a couple of months, maybe three months ahead of us particularly in the marketing of their programs but their data has got a few months' head start for us. But I think what we are seeing in our Marriott Rewards Member Only rates is very encouraging. We continue to see strong year-over-year growth in Marriott Rewards sign-ups. We see that the occupancy contribution from the rewards program is in the high 50s% of contribution to the hotels. We see strong growth in apps download and Marriott.com business and mobile bookings and all of those things so we are encouraged by that.

都是很好的問題，謝謝。我知道我們的一位主要競爭對手昨天在電話會議上也談到了這一點。他們在專案推廣方面比我們領先了幾個月，甚至可能三個月，但他們的數據也比我們領先幾個月。不過，我認為我們萬豪禮賞會員專屬房價的走勢非常令人鼓舞。萬豪禮賞會員註冊量持續保持強勁的年成長。我們發現，禮賞計畫對飯店入住率的貢獻率高達50%以上。此外，應用程式下載量、Marriott.com商務及行動預訂量等各項指標也都實現了強勁增長，這些都讓我們倍感振奮。

It has had a modest impact we think on RevPAR in Q2 probably in the 30 to 40 basis point range on reported RevPAR which in a sense you could look at it and say that is a negative impact of it but this is a long-term question for us and really what we want to make sure we are doing is communicating clearly to our Marriott Rewards members that they will have value because we know them and because they have loyalty to us. And make it crystal clear, sometimes contrary to the advertising or perception that is out there in the market but make it crystal clear that the rates through our channels are at least as good if not better than the rates that are available anywhere else.

我們認為，第二季的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）受到的影響不大，可能在30到40個基點之間。從某種意義上說，這可以說是負面影響，但對我們來說，這是一個長期問題。我們真正想做的是，確保與萬豪禮賞會員清晰地溝通，讓他們感受到我們對他們的價值，因為我們了解他們，也因為他們對我們的忠誠。我們要明確地告訴他們，即使有時與市場上的廣告或認知相悖，透過我們管道預訂的價格也至少與其他管道的價格一樣好，甚至更好。

And obviously if that drives a meaningful share shift towards our channels, that is a good thing and that is the bet we are making and we think it is a good bet.

顯然，如果這能促使市場份額顯著轉移到我們的管道，那是一件好事，這也是我們所押注的，我們認為這是一個不錯的賭注。

That is helpful. I understand the long-term benefits of this and I would never question that. I'm just trying to understand kind of what is built into your guidance. You mentioned 30 to 40 basis points of RevPAR headwind in the second quarter. Are you building that type of RevPAR headwind into the back half of the year as well as this program continues to ramp? Maybe a little bit more as the program continues to ramp? How are you thinking about that?

這很有幫助。我理解這項計劃的長期益處，對此我絕對不會質疑。我只是想了解您的業績指引包含了哪些內容。您提到第二季RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）將面臨30到40個基點的阻力。隨著該計劃的持續推進，您是否也預計下半年RevPAR的阻力會更大一些？您對此有何看法？

I wouldn't think it is going to get any worse but it is reflected in our guidance.

我認為情況不會再惡化了，但這已經反映在我們的指導下。

That is helpful. Thanks.

那很有幫助，謝謝。

Thomas Allen, Morgan Stanley.

Thomas Allen，摩根士丹利。

Good morning. So you cut your G&A guidance for the year, I mean you have been very good in the past about streamlining costs. I guess two questions. One would be at what level of RevPAR do you think you would need to make more drastic cuts? And then two, how much kind of I guess dry powder, how much more do you think you can cut there? Thanks.

早安.您下調了今年的管理費用預期，我的意思是，您過去在精簡成本方面做得非常好。我有兩個問題。第一，您認為RevPAR達到什麼水準時需要更大幅度地削減成本？第二，您認為還有多少“可用資金”，或者說，您認為這方面還能再削減多少？謝謝。

So let's take both of those. First of all just in general you are seeing good solid cost controls. You're watching the Company do what it should do in a modest growth environment which is being very careful to look at adding positions and the reality is as we prepare for Starwood I think we definitely have been keeping a very close eye knowing that we are going to be able to have great efficiencies by joining up with Starwood. And so really not just kind of adding necessarily before the merger where we have an opportunity to do it afterwards and do it in combination with the reorganization of how we want to run the Company on a combined basis.

所以我們來看看這兩點。首先，整體而言，我們看到公司在成本控制方面做得非常出色。在成長較為溫和的環境下，公司採取了應有的策略，即非常謹慎地考慮增加職位。事實上，在我們為收購喜達屋做準備的過程中，我們一直密切關注著相關情況，因為我們知道與喜達屋合併後，我們將能夠大幅提高效率。因此，我們並沒有在合併前刻意增加職位，而是在合併後，結合公司重組計劃，進一步優化合併後的營運模式。

So I think overall these are good solid, the $10 million that you have seen is what I would call a permanent sort of solid reduction in G&A relative to cost controls. And I don't think we are imagining that there is with the current standalone Marriott business that we would be imagining that we are looking at an environment of needing to do a wholesale reorganization.

所以我認為整體而言，這些都是切實有效的措施。您看到的1000萬美元削減，在我看來，是相對於成本控製而言，在一般及行政費用方面實現的永久性實質性削減。而且我認為，就目前獨立的萬豪業務而言，我們並不認為需要進行全面重組。

We do continue to think that there are fantastic synergies related to the combination which as you have heard where we are still confident that the $250 million of steady-state savings in the combined Company is achievable.

我們仍然認為這次合併將帶來巨大的協同效應，正如你們所聽到的，我們仍然有信心，合併後的公司能夠實現 2.5 億美元的穩定期節約。

Helpful, thank you. Then just as my follow-up, you mentioned earlier that you hadn't seen any pickup in cancellation rates on the group business. Wondering if what you are seeing on the transient side, what level of cancellation rates do you typically see and how has that been trending? Thank you.

很有幫助，謝謝。我還有一個後續問題，您之前提到團體預訂的取消率沒有任何下降。我想問一下，散客預訂的取消率通常是多少？趨勢如何？謝謝。

I am not sure I can answer the first part of that question but the second part, they are about the same. We did make a change a year and a half ago on our cancellation window so typical business would be until roughly the first of 2015. Laura can double check the calendar on this whether I am remembering it right.

我不確定能否回答問題的第一部分，但第二部分，情況大致相同。我們一年半前調整了取消期限，所以通常情況下，取消期限會持續到2015年初左右。勞拉可以再檢查一下日曆，看看我是否記錯了。

But I think roughly the first of 2015 we began to require cancellation 24 hours before stay, in other words, the day before the check-in date. Prior to that time, you could cancel up till 6 PM on the day of stay and that has obviously reduced cancellations in that last 24-hour period.

但我認為大約從2015年初開始，我們要求必須在入住前24小時取消預訂，也就是說，必須在入住日期前一天取消。在此之前，您可以在入住當天下午6點之前取消預訂，這顯然減少了最後24小時內的取消情況。

But when you look after that time and look at cancellations a day before two, three days before, we are not really seeing a material change from what we have experienced previously.

但是，如果你把時間往後看，看看提前一天、兩天、三天取消的航班，我們並沒有看到與之前經歷的情況相比發生實質性的變化。

That occurred in February 2015.

這件事發生在2015年2月。

February 2015.

2015年2月。

Helpful, thank you.

很有幫助，謝謝。

Jeff Donnelly, Wells Fargo.

傑夫唐納利，富國銀行。

Good morning, guys. Actually on that topic, Arne, is it your experience that those trends that you see positive or negative in group cancellation attrition or in the year pace are a canary in the coal mine that I would call accurately foreshadows future trends or do you find it is somewhat of an unreliable indicator given your experience?

早上好，各位。關於這個主題，Arne，根據你的經驗，你認為團體取消率或年度進度中出現的正面或負面趨勢，是否能像煤礦裡的金絲雀一樣準確預示未來的趨勢？還是根據你的經驗，你認為這是一個不太可靠的指標？

It's a good question. Certainly in the group space if you have got shrinkage that is occurring sort of real-time so that groups are showing up with meaningfully lower numbers than what they anticipated before, that could be a warning that group participants or that the company sponsoring groups are less bullish about things than they were when the reservation group booking was first made.

這是一個很好的問題。當然，在團體預訂領域，如果出現即時縮減的情況，即團體實際到場人數明顯低於預期，這可能預示著團體參與者或贊助團體的公司對預訂的信心不如最初預訂時那麼樂觀了。

But again, we haven't really seen movement in that so there is not data there that would tell us to beware because of that. In fact you can tell from our comments about group, group is one of those things that we look at that give us some solidity in our point of view about the future and the group attendance has been good and the food and beverage spending has been good and so that is sort of reassuring.

但話說回來，我們並沒有真正看到這方面的波動，所以目前沒有任何數據表明我們需要對此保持警惕。事實上，從我們對團體活動的評論中可以看出，團體活動是我們關注的指標之一，它能為我們對未來的看法提供一些依據。團體活動的參與人數和餐飲消費都很好，這多少讓人感到安心。

It is a good question around transient cancellation. Again, I don't think we have seen a shift there but I can't tell you whether in prior cycles that would be a canary in the coal mine. My guess is it is not very much because corporate transient business is booked so short before the stay that actually it doesn't show up so much in cancellation, but probably just shows up in the booking itself.

關於臨時預訂取消的問題，這確實是個好問題。就目前而言，我認為我們還沒有看到這方面的變化，但我無法確定在先前的周期中，這是否是一個預警訊號。我的猜測是，變化不大，因為企業臨時預訂通常在入住前很短時間內完成，所以取消的情況並不明顯，可能只會體現在預訂記錄中。

Maybe as a follow-up and perhaps this is for Leeny around integration, I recognize you've probably got a plan for all aspects of the Marriott Starwood integration, but where in your mind do you think you are going to face some of the highest hurdles in the integration? Is it technology, is it branding and marketing, is it guest loyalty?

或許可以作為後續問題，這也可能是針對Leeny關於整合的問題。我知道您可能已經制定了萬豪喜達屋整合各個方面的計劃，但您認為在整合過程中最大的障礙是什麼？是技術方面，還是品牌和行銷方面，還是顧客忠誠度方面？

Maybe as a follow-up just so we can have our expectation set, one to two years from now should we expect that this will leave you guys with a new state-of-the-art technology system or are you sort of more focused on just patching existing systems together?

為了方便我們設定預期，我想問一下，一到兩年後，你們是否會擁有一個全新的尖端科技系統，還是你們更專注於修補現有的系統？

Very good question. So a couple of things. I would say we are still in the land where we don't have kind of open sesame yet into all of the information. So full knowledge about exactly how we are thinking about some of these technological platforms and merging them and what we will choose and exactly how we will do it remains to be seen. I think we continue to believe this is a two-year process, that this integration of these two companies when you think about it kind of what we have got to do, get in there, look at it and then figure out from a transition standpoint, that it is a two-year integration is definitely something that you should expect.

問得好。有幾點要說明。我想說，我們目前還處於資訊尚未完全公開的階段。因此，我們究竟如何考慮這些技術平台，如何將它們合併，最終會選擇哪些平台，以及具體如何實施，這些都還有待觀察。我認為我們仍然認為這是一個為期兩年的過程。仔細想想，這兩家公司的整合，我們需要深入研究，從過渡的角度出發，制定出一個為期兩年的整合方案，這大家應該要有所預期。

In terms of loyalty, we've got a host of issues. In addition to both the technological issues around platforms and reservations, etc., we've also got some other things like credit cards and timeshare businesses where we need to work with our partners to get where we all want to go in terms of the relationship with the customer. And that one is a little bit harder to pick exactly a time. I think we have said before that we are hopeful by 2018 to have merged the loyalty program.

在客戶忠誠度方面，我們面臨許多問題。除了平台和預訂等方面的技術難題之外，還有一些其他問題，例如信用卡和分時度假業務，我們需要與合作夥伴共同努力，才能在客戶關係方面實現我們共同的目標。而這個問題很難確定具體的完成時間。我想我們之前已經說過，希望到2018年能夠完成忠誠度計畫的合併。

So I think the two-year sort of estimate is for right now as good as we can give you.

所以我認為，目前我們能給的兩年預估已經是最好的結果了。

Great. Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

David Katz, Telsey Group.

David Katz，Telsey集團。

Good morning, all. So I just wanted to ask about the post closure asset sales program, plan. How should we be -- I assume that you have a specific set of strategies around getting that done and as I listen to you talk about it in many respects it seems as though it is a foregone conclusion that they will be sold and we do have a stated set of net proceeds coming out of that.

各位早安。我想問一下關於交易完成後資產出售計劃的問題。我們該如何安排？我假設你們有一套具體的策略來完成這項工作，而且從你們的描述來看，似乎出售這些資產是板上釘釘的事，我們也已經確定了最終的淨收益。

Is there any color that you can give us around your assuredness that it is going to happen it is going to happen the way you have mapped it out and some of the sort of issues and risks around getting that done, please?

您能否透露一些訊息，說明您對此事能否按計劃進行以及在實施過程中可能遇到的問題和風險有何信心？

Great, so you are right. We have talked about in general what we expect to do in terms of $1.5 billion to $2 billion of asset sales over the next couple of years when we do this deal. So first of all you can tell what Starwood has done so far this year. They have done a great job of moving through their asset sale program and getting some nice deals done. We, like you, basically take our cue from them in terms of hearing how they are doing on that front and from that perspective, we know that they are talking to a number of parties out there about some very good size transactions. And we look forward to as soon as the deal is closed to getting much more involved in understanding exactly where things are with the negotiations and the terms of the deals and the pace of those discussions. I wouldn't really be able to hazard where we are in Q3, Q4, Q1 of 2017 except to know that I'm sure you have seen Marriott's track record and that is that we don't want to be a real estate owner and we will be moving as quickly as a practical to recycle that capital.

太好了，你說得對。我們之前討論過，未來幾年，我們計劃透過這項交易出售價值15億至20億美元的資產。首先，您可以看看今年喜達屋迄今為止的進展。他們在資產出售計劃的推進方面做得非常出色，並達成了一些不錯的交易。和您一樣，我們也密切關注他們的動態，了解他們在這一領域的進展。據我們所知，他們正在與多家公司洽談一些規模可觀的交易。我們期待交易完成後，能夠更深入地了解談判的具體進展、交易條款以及討論的進度。至於2017年第三季、第四季和第一季的具體情況，我目前還無法做出預測，但我相信您也了解萬豪的過往記錄，那就是我們不想繼續持有房地產，我們會盡快將資金循環利用。

But frankly I would expect that you will hear more from us at the end of Q3 when we have closed and we've got a better handle on where things are.

但坦白說，我預計在第三季末，當我們完成結算並對情況有更清晰的了解之後，你們會聽到我們更多的消息。

So it sounds like there is a series of processes that they have begun.

聽起來他們已經啟動了一系列流程。

Yes.

是的。

That you will be taking reins on that are at some wide range of stages?

您將接手的專案將處於不同的發展階段？

You hit the nail on the head. That is exactly right.

你說得太對了。完全正確。

Understood. Okay. Thank you very much.

明白了。好的。非常感謝。

Rich Hightower, Evercore ISI.

Rich Hightower，Evercore ISI。

Good morning, everyone. So I want to go back to an item in the prepared comments about the strategy in the second quarter of increasing occupancy via various different channels as a way to generate RevPAR. So it is sort of reminiscent of the heads and beds strategy that was employed much earlier in the cycle here.

大家早安。我想回到之前準備好的評論中提到的一點，即第二季度透過各種管道提高入住率以增加每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的策略。這有點像我們本季早期採用的「床位和入住人數」策略。

And so my question is how much more occupancy or how much more RevPAR can you drive this way given that we are basically at or near a structural peak in occupancy? And then going forward, where will RevPAR come from if that avenue is eventually more or less closed off?

所以我的問題是，鑑於我們目前的入住率基本上處於或接近結構性峰值，透過這種方式還能提高多少入住率或每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）？展望未來，如果這條途徑最終或多或少被關閉，RevPAR 又將從何而來？

There is lots of business out there that we don't have in our hotels by definition obviously. We think we've got about 11% of the rooms in the United States and a smaller share in the rest of the world, usually dramatically smaller than that 11%. We tend to run meaningfully higher rates than the market as a whole and we obviously do that with a purpose. That is partly because of the way our hotels are skewed in terms of their level of luxury and level of services. That is partly about simply our approach to pricing.

顯然，我們酒店無法滿足許多其他行業的業務需求。我們估計在美國，我們的客房數量約佔11%，而在世界其他地區，我們的份額更小，通常遠低於11%。我們的房價往往遠高於市場平均水平，這顯然是有原因的。部分原因是我們的飯店在豪華程度和服務水準方面存在差異，部分原因則在於我們獨特的定價策略。

So there is lots of business out there that is more rate sensitive and can be pursued by us if we think it is in our interest to pursue it.

因此，有許多業務對利率更為敏感，如果我們認為符合自身利益，我們可以去爭取這些業務。

Obviously we are also adding new units around the world and whether that is at 6.5% or 7% it is meaningful growth into our system and so we are with those new hotels making sure we can also grab new customers in order to fill them and do what we need to do and the performance there has been great.

顯然，我們也在世界各地增加新的酒店單元，無論是 6.5% 還是 7%，這都對我們的系統來說是有意義的成長。因此，我們正在與這些新酒店合作，確保我們也能吸引新客戶，以便填滿這些酒店，並完成我們需要做的事情，而這方面的表現非常出色。

So I think there is plenty of business for us to continue to go and grab. I think that business cannot always be grabbed at exactly the rates that the highest rated business we have in hotels but we do our best through revenue management and mix management and the like to drive optimal performance and I think we have done well with that.

所以我認為我們還有很多業務可以繼續拓展。雖然我們不可能總是以酒店最高評級業務的價格來獲取這些業務，但我們會盡最大努力透過收益管理、組合管理等方式來實現最佳業績，我認為我們在這方面做得很好。

Obviously that is a topline focus sort of number. I would -- let me stress something on the bottom line too and maybe brag about it a little bit. But I think the 100 basis point improvement in margins in the managed portfolio in the United States in a 3% RevPAR growth environment is extraordinarily impressive and that is a bit about good management at the topline but it is also great management of the cost elements of those hotels. And both of those things I think tell you that we've got tools that we can use even in this sort of anemic GDP growth environment that we are experiencing today that can cause us to deliver maybe it is low-ish single-digit RevPAR growth but when you put unit growth and cost management and capital return to shareholders into the equation, you end up with this high teens or maybe even better EPS growth, 18% EPS growth in Q2. And that is with $20 million less in gains on asset sales because we had that in Q2 of 2015.

顯然，這只是營收的一個主要指標。我還想強調一下利潤方面，甚至可以稍微誇耀一下。我認為，在美國RevPAR成長率僅3%的情況下，我們管理的投資組合利潤率提升了100個基點，非常令人印象深刻。這不僅得益於營收的優異管理，也得益於我們對這些飯店成本要素的卓越控制。我認為這兩點都表明，即使在當前GDP成長疲軟的環境下，我們仍然擁有能夠幫助我們實現目標的工具。雖然RevPAR成長率可能只有個位數，但如果將單位成長、成本控制和股東資本回報都考慮在內，最終的每股盈餘成長率可以達到10%甚至更高，第二季達到18%。而且，這還是在資產出售收益比2015年第二季少了2,000萬美元的情況下取得的。

Okay, that is helpful, Arne. And then maybe as a follow-up to that also related to a prior comment, you did mention that Marriott brands are continuing to take share from others in the industry. But we are hearing a very similar story from some of the other big brands and so can you sort of describe the landscape of hotels or operators or branded, non-branded whatever, where that share is coming from at this stage?

好的，這很有幫助，Arne。另外，關於您之前提到的萬豪旗下品牌正在不斷蠶食其他品牌的市場份額，我想再補充一點。但我們也從其他一些大型品牌聽到了類似的說法。您能否大致描述一下目前飯店、營運商，或是品牌飯店、非品牌飯店等所有類型的市佔率分佈？

Yes, I think there are two big American lodging companies whose brands are in first demand and of course we believe our brands are in first demand and we have data to support that. But I think there is a significant shift towards quality. I think that shift in many respects the accelerates when there is more anxiety in the market and whether that anxiety is manifested by the way the equity investor approaches it or by the approach that the lender takes and we obviously talked about that a little bit in the prepared comments.

是的，我認為目前有兩家大型美國酒店集團的品牌需求量最高，當然我們也相信我們的品牌同樣需求量最高，而且我們有數據支持這一點。但我認為市場正在發生顯著的向優質酒店轉型。我認為，在市場焦慮情緒加劇的情況下，這種轉型在許多方面都會加速，無論這種焦慮情緒是體現在股權投資者的投資方式上，還是體現在貸款機構的投資方式上——我們在事先準備好的評論中也略有提及這一點。

Lenders are more cautious today and that caution is also going to force them to put their [borrowers] in a position where they are going with the strongest brands that pose the least risk in a weaker environment and that is very much to our benefit.

如今貸款機構更加謹慎，這種謹慎也會迫使他們讓借款人在疲軟的市場環境下選擇風險最小、實力最強的品牌，這對我們來說非常有利。

Right. I'm sorry, let me clarify that. I did mean RevPAR index rather than the development.

好的。抱歉，我解釋一下。我指的是RevPAR指數，而不是開發情形。

RevPAR index, okay. Yes, who are we taking it from? Well, remember the way RevPAR index is done, it is not Marriott against Company B but it is how does the Marriott Marquis in Times Square in New York compare to the four hotels or five hotels or six hotels that they have in that hotel's competitive set. And as a consequence in some markets, it is going to be for the Marriott Marquis, I don't know off the top of my head what the competitive set is but I suspect that it is a number of big branded hotels within about a mile of that hotel.

好的，RevPAR 指數。那麼，我們要從哪裡取得這個數據呢？記住 RevPAR 指數的計算方法，它不是萬豪酒店和 B 公司之間的比較，而是比較紐約時代廣場的萬豪侯爵酒店與它周圍四家、五家或六家競爭對手酒店之間的差異。因此，在某些市場，對於萬豪侯爵酒店來說，我一時想不起來它的競爭對手具體有哪些，但我估計應該是方圓一英里內的幾家大型品牌酒店。

In other markets we may have a Marriott that is competing against a limited service hotel because that is the only other hotel in the market or some other products like that or some independent hotels. All of these get rolled up and when we talk about 90 basis points of index growth, that is a collection of taking from lots of different kinds of competitors.

在其他市場，我們可能會看到萬豪酒店與一家有限服務酒店競爭，因為那可能是市場上唯一的另一家酒店，或者其他類似的酒店產品，或者一些獨立酒店。所有這些因素都會被納入考量，當我們談到指數成長90個基點時，這實際上是來自眾多不同類型競爭對手的綜合影響。

That was helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助，謝謝。

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

Chad Beynon，麥格理集團。

Thanks for taking my questions. Wanted to shift gears to Asia-Pac since you are one of the largest now and post deal close I believe you will be the largest player in the market. And you talked about some pretty positive things going on on a forward-looking basis and in the quarter. Wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more where you are seeing the strength, where the occupancy is coming from and then are we starting to see an improvement in the F&B and banquet side as we saw several years ago? Thanks.

感謝您回答我的問題。我想把話題轉向亞太地區，因為貴公司目前是該地區最大的公司之一，我相信交易完成後，貴公司將成為市場上的領頭羊。您也談到了未來發展和本季的一些非常積極的進展。我想請您進一步闡述一下，您認為這些優勢體現在哪些方面？入住率主要來自哪裡？餐飲和宴會業務是否開始像幾年前那樣好轉？謝謝。

Asia is really a bright spot, you can look at it for our total RevPAR numbers that we reported in the quarter. We obviously called out a number of the individual markets but you look across the region and see more often than not good strong performance. Sometimes in markets like South Korea that is aided by an extraordinarily easy comparison because of the MERS crisis last year. But you look at India with its 10% RevPAR growth, that is driven by core economic growth in the country.

亞洲市場表現確實亮眼，從我們本季公佈的每間可供出租客房總收入（RevPAR）數據就能看出。我們當然也重點提及了一些具體市場，但縱觀整個亞洲地區，你會發現大多數市場都表現強勁。有時，像韓國這樣的市場，由於去年MERS疫情的影響，基數較低，因此業績表現特別突出。但再看看印度，其RevPAR成長了10%，主要得益於該國核心經濟的成長。

China, we talked about with Mainland China RevPAR up about 3% in Q2 and if anything, that understates China's performance. We did have a shift in the way we report RevPAR year-over-year which has something to do with service fees and service charges and some other fine tuning of that which has about a 2 point impact on reported RevPAR in China in the quarter. And so if anything, China is doing even better than the numbers that we reported.

我們之前提到過，中國大陸第二季的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）增加了約3%，但實際上，這個數字低估了中國市場的實際表現。我們調整了RevPAR同比報告方式，這與服務費和其他一些微調有關，導致本季中國市場的RevPAR報告值略有下降（約2個百分點）。因此，中國市場的實際表現甚至比我們公佈的數據還要好。

We have been pleased with China on the development side. Year to date we obviously read the same newspapers that you do and there is some anxiety there as there is in many other markets around the world but it seems that people are continuing to move forward with projects that have strength.

我們對中國的發展狀況感到滿意。今年以來，我們當然也和你們一樣關注著新聞，和其他許多市場一樣，中國也存在一些焦慮情緒，但看起來人們仍在繼續推動那些有發展潛力的計畫。

On the negative side, Hong Kong has been sort of a tougher market mostly because Chinese visitation has -- Mainland Chinese visitation has declined. Some of that is currency driven given Hong Kong's dollar is essentially pegged to the US dollar and so as a consequence has become more expensive as the US dollar has continued to appreciate around the world. We wouldn't expect the story in Hong Kong is going to change for the better anytime real soon.

不利的一面是，香港市場一直比較艱難，主要是因為來自中國大陸的遊客人數下降。部分原因是匯率波動，因為港幣與美元掛鉤，隨著美元在全球持續升值，港幣的成本也隨之上升。我們預計香港的情況短期內不會好轉。

And Thailand is strong too, but I think of across the region generally we are pretty bullish about Asia-Pacific.

泰國也很強，但我認為總體而言，我們對亞太地區的前景相當樂觀。

Thanks. My follow-up, IMS in the quarter and the half-year from a percentage basis and from a year-over-year basis, very impressive for you and really particularly against your peers particularly given the declining demands in the industry. So I'm just trying to figure out if we do see RevPAR decelerate as you have guided, are there many IMF payers that are at risk of falling away or are those portfolios or operators that are just barely paying IMFs so small in the grand scheme of your total fees from that segment? Thanks.

謝謝。我的後續問題是，從季度和半年的百分比以及同比來看，貴公司在綜合管理服務（IMS）方面的表現非常出色，尤其是在行業需求下降的情況下，與同行相比更是如此。所以我想了解的是，如果RevPAR真的像您預測的那樣放緩，那麼是否有大量IMF支付方面面臨流失的風險？或者說，那些勉強支付IMF的投資組合或營運商，在貴公司該業務板塊的總費用中佔比很小？謝謝。

Maybe I will have Leeny do that but before Leeny jumps in on this, let me mention Australia given that you are with Macquarie. So I apologize for not having done that. But Australia is a bright spot in the Asia-Pacific too.

或許我會讓莉妮來做這件事，但在莉妮介入之前，鑑於你在麥格理銀行工作，我想先提一下澳洲。所以，我為之前沒有提到澳洲而道歉。但澳洲也是亞太地區的一顆璀璨明珠。

Appreciate that, thank you.

非常感謝。

So on incentive fees, you will see that what we've got for the first half of the year and the back half of the year is a fairly similar growth rate. Now we are looking so far this year whatever 64% earning incentive fees and by the end of the year that will probably climb up a few percentage points. We've got a great breadth and depth now with greater international exposure across our portfolio where it is not quite the same in terms of the fall off. I think as long as we are staying in the kind of ballparks that we have talked about for RevPAR without a meaningful change, I think we are in the right spot and you've got a right kind of numbers. We aren't seeing that we automatically would have to kind of imagine that all of a he sudden you are going to go back and reverse the ones that you have. We have got a large portfolio of limited service hotels that added nicely to incentive fees in Q2 and their performance looks to continue to be strong.

因此，關於激勵費用，您可以看到我們上半年和下半年的成長率相當接近。今年迄今為止，我們預計約有 64% 的飯店獲得了激勵費用，到年底這一比例可能會再上升幾個百分點。我們現在擁有更廣泛的投資組合，並增加了國際業務，因此在收入下滑方面情況有所不同。我認為，只要 RevPAR 保持在我們之前討論的範圍內，並且沒有發生重大變化，我們就處於正確的位置，並且擁有合理的數字。我們目前沒有看到任何跡象表明我們需要突然改變策略。我們擁有大量有限服務型酒店，它們在第二季度為激勵費用做出了不錯的貢獻，而且它們的業績看起來將繼續保持強勁。

So it is IMF performance was really nice and broad, both in North America as well as internationally obviously impacted by some tough international markets but overall kind of strong growth overall.

因此，國際貨幣基金組織的表現確實非常出色且全面，無論是在北美還是國際上，雖然顯然受到了一些嚴峻的國際市場的影響，但總體而言，整體成長勢頭強勁。

The other thing I would say on our IMFs is that as you think about where we are from a margin perspective, this performance is really top-notch in terms of the kinds of IMF growth that we are having relative to the RevPAR growth, this really great performance and we feel great about the rest of the year in that regard.

關於我們的 IMF，我想說的另一點是，從利潤率的角度來看，就我們所處的境地而言，相對於 RevPAR 的增長，我們目前的 IMF 增長水平確實非常出色，我們對今年剩餘時間在這方面的表現充滿信心。

Just one other comment on that. If you look at our reported numbers and pay attention to the managed page as well as the system-wide page, obviously managed hotels deliver the IMF. Managed hotels have a higher group mix than the system as a whole. We only really end up talking about RevPAR. We often don't talk about food and beverage and other contribution that comes from group but that does very much drive profitability of the managed hotels. And with the relatively stronger group, there is I think all of the things that Leeny said are that much even clearer because the performance in those hotels should continue to be a bit better than those that are more reliant on transient and less on food and beverage.

關於這一點，我還有一點要補充。如果您查看我們公佈的數據，並同時關注管理酒​​店頁面和系統整體頁面，您會發現管理酒店的業績顯然是綜合收益的主要來源。管理飯店的團體客人比例高於整個系統。我們最終往往只專注於每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）。我們通常不會提及餐飲和其他團體貢獻，但這些貢獻實際上對管理飯店的獲利能力影響巨大。而且，由於團體客人相對較少，我認為Leeny提到的所有問題都更加清晰，因為這些酒店的業績應該會比那些更依賴散客、餐飲貢獻較少的酒店略好一些。

Okay, helpful. Thank you very much.

好的，很有幫助。非常感謝。

Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research.

Vince Ciepiel，克里夫蘭研究公司。

I just have one more on group. Trying to better understand the booking curve there. On the prior call, you noted group was pacing up 7% for the second quarter and it sounds like group RevPAR did finish at that 7% level. Now you are noting that group paces up 5% for the second half. And based on what you are seeing within the quarter for the quarter group bookings, would you expect group RevPAR to materialize close to that 5% for the second half?

關於團體預訂，我還有一個問題。我想更了解團體預訂的曲線。在上次電話會議上，您提到團體預訂在第二季度增長了7%，而且團體RevPAR似乎也達到了7%的水平。現在您又提到團體預訂在下半年成長了5%。根據您在本季度觀察到的團體預訂情況，您預期團體RevPAR在下半年能否接近5%的成長率？

Yes, I mean I think it is a good question. I think our number for Q4 has gotten a bit better over the last quarter. I think obviously we're talking about three quarters, a quarter ago left in the year not two and so we didn't give it to for each quarter although I think we did say that Q3 was relatively stronger than Q4.

是的，我覺得這是個好問題。我認為我們第四季的業績比上一季有所好轉。當然，我們現在討論的是今年還剩三個季度，而不是兩個季度，所以我們沒有逐個季度給出具體數據，儘管我們確實說過第三季度比第四季度表現更好。

I think Q4 numbers look a little better today than they did a quarter ago. My guess is that often the way this works is if Q3 for example were plus 10 or plus 9 point-something in group business, we are more likely to end up with a group number which is a bit lower than that when the dust settles because there is not likely to be availability to take as much in the quarter for the quarter group business as we probably took last year.

我認為第四季的數據比上個季度略好一些。我的猜測是，通常情況下，如果第三季度集團業務增長了10%或9.5%，那麼最終的集團業務數據很可能會略低於這個數字，因為本季度集團業務的可用份額不太可能像去年那麼多。

The opposite may be the case for the fourth quarter though. So the fourth quarter hopefully will end up with actual group RevPAR numbers which are better than zero. How those two things balance out for the second half in the aggregate I couldn't tell you but it shouldn't be dramatically different than the kind of 5% number that we are talking about today for second half.

但第四季的情況可能恰恰相反。所以，希望第四季最終的實際集團每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）能比零好。至於這兩件事在下半年整體上會如何相互抵消，我無法預測，但應該不會與我們今天討論的下半年5%左右的數字有太大出入。

Okay, great. Then as a follow-up on that, I think heading into this year group was pacing up 7 and based on those comments, it sounds like it will materialize at close to 5 for the full-year 2016. I think you are noting that 2017 is pacing up 7. Is it plausible to think that 2017 could finish at close to 5% for group holding everything constant?

好的，太好了。接下來我想問的是，我認為今年年初該小組的成長率是7%，根據這些評論來看，2016年全年成長率似乎會接近5%。您提到2017年的成長率是7。那麼，在其他條件不變的情況下，2017年該組的成長率有可能接近5%嗎？

Yes, though you are taking us well into next year. I think that is possible. I think the good news here though is the 7% booking is a real year-over-year comparison. That is a data point that is compared to the same data point at the same time last year for 2016 and that is a real increase of 7% in group revenue.

是的，雖然您把時間推到了明年。我認為這是有可能的。不過，好消息是，7%的預訂量成長是真實的年比數據。這個數據點是與2016年同期的數據點進行比較得出的，這意味著集團收入確實增長了7%。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Bill Crow, Raymond James.

比爾·克勞，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I wanted to focus in on the Chinese approval real quick. It feels like it is delaying the transaction by weeks or maybe months and is this a straight yes or no vote by them? Is there a negotiation or demand for any changes as you operate in that market? If we went into a phase 3, how long do you think that could take?

我想快速談談中國方面的審批。感覺這會將交易推遲數週甚至數月，他們的投票結果是直接通過還是直接否決？鑑於你們在該市場運營，是否有任何談判或修改要求？如果進入第三階段，您認為需要多長時間？

I don't think there is much more we can say than what we have already said. I will give it a little bit more color. Obviously we have got folks in China that are helping us navigate through this and through them and through our teams, we have been in touch with the Chinese authorities who are doing this process. I don't think it is political. I don't think it is extraordinary. I think it is the wheels of government working and as you can tell from our comments, we expect -- we at least hope that we will be done here real shortly and be able to close transaction and close it on the terms that we have explained to all of you.

我覺得我們能說的已經不多了。我再補充一點。顯然，我們在中國有工作人員協助我們處理此事，透過他們以及我們的團隊，我們一直與負責此事的中國當局保持聯繫。我認為這並非出於政治原因，也並非什麼特別的事。我認為這只是政府運作的正常程序。正如你們從我們的演講中看到的，我們預計——至少我們希望——很快就能完成這項工作，並按照我們之前向大家解釋的條款完成交易。

Okay. I will leave it there. Thank you.

好的，我就說到這裡。謝謝。

Jared Shojaian, Wolfe Research.

Jared Shojaian，Wolfe Research。

Thanks for taking my question. Just on your guidance so obviously it sounds like you are assuming steady state GDP environment but how is industry supply factored into the guidance as well? And is it possible that through the accelerating supply that we are seeing including some of the short-term rental capacity is driving some of these softness that you are seeing right now on the corporate side?

感謝您回答我的問題。關於您的預測，顯然您假設GDP環境保持穩定，但產業供應是如何納入預測的呢？目前我們看到的供應加速成長（包括一些短期租賃產能）是否可能導致企業方面出現疲軟的情況？

Obviously RevPAR is a function of both supply and demand. Supply growing now at 1.5% to 1.6% something like that which in historic terms is not particularly alarming, maybe a little bit more than we have had last year or the year before that but not a frightening sort of figure. It is very much factored into the guidance that we are providing, both our supply growth in industry supply growth and we are trying to make a real world set of assumptions about the way we think our business will perform.

顯然，每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）受供給與需求雙方影響。目前供應成長率約1.5%至1.6%，從歷史數據來看，這並不算特別令人擔憂，或許比去年或前年略高一些，但並非令人恐慌的數字。我們在提供業績指引時已充分考慮了這個因素，包括我們自身的供應成長、產業供應成長以及我們對自身業務未來表現的預期。

Supply growth could be a little higher next year but I wouldn't think it is going to be dramatically different than what we are seeing this year and that will continue to have an impact into performance.

明年的供應成長可能會略高一些，但我認為不會與今年的情況有太大不同，這將繼續對業績產生影響。

Generally an incremental point of GDP growth is about 2 points of demand growth for the industry and as a consequence, we could see occupancy for comp hotels continue to grow even in this kind of supply growth environment. But it does depend on GDP growth and the more GDP moves the more occupancy is likely to move.

通常情況下，GDP每成長1個百分點，產業需求就會成長約2個百分點。因此，即使在供應成長的環境下，我們仍然可以看到同類飯店的入住率持續成長。但這確實取決於GDP的成長，GDP成長幅度越大，入住率的波動幅度也可能越大。

Okay, that is helpful. Thank you. You are obviously making some traction here with the direct bookings away from the OTAs but what sort of progress is being made with just the timing of when customers pay? So I'm specifically wondering about the percentage of reservations that are paid in advance versus on arrival. How is that trending and what can you do here to drive just more upfront payments?

好的，這很有幫助，謝謝。顯然，你們在推廣直接預訂方面取得了一些進展，不再依賴線上旅行社（OTA）。但是，在客戶付款時間方面，你們又取得了哪些進展呢？我特別想了解預付和到店付款的預訂比例。目前這個比例的趨勢如何？你們可以採取哪些措施來提高預付款率？

We have in some markets of the world push advanced pay marketed at a little bit more aggressively. I know the European team has driven a significant increase in advanced pay reservations. I can't tell you operate top of my head what the percentage of transient business is that is advanced pay in Europe although I know it is growing. I suspect it has grown modestly for the Company but not dramatically. But that is one of the tools obviously that can be used as well.

我們在世界某些市場更積極地推廣預付預訂。我知道歐洲團隊已經顯著提高了預付預訂量。我無法立即告訴你歐洲預付預訂佔散客業務的比例，但我知道它正在成長。我估計公司這部分業務的成長幅度不大，但應該不算顯著。但這顯然也是我們可以利用的行銷手段之一。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Crystal, any other questions?

克麗絲特爾，還有其他問題嗎？

No, sir, not at this time.

不，先生，目前不行。

Thank you everybody very much. Have a great summer and keep traveling. Bye-bye.

非常感謝大家。祝大家有個美好的夏天，繼續旅行。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。