使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Marriott International First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)
女士們、先生們,感謝各位的耐心等待,歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2017年第一季財報電話會議。(操作說明)
It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Arne Sorenson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Marriott International. Sir, you may begin.
現在我很高興把發言權交給萬豪國際集團總裁兼執行長阿恩·索倫森。先生,您可以開始了。
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Leeny Oberg, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Laura Paugh, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations; and Betsy Dahm, Senior Director, Investor Relations.
各位早安。歡迎參加我們2017年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有:執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg;投資者關係資深副總裁 Laura Paugh;以及投資者關係高級總監 Betsy Dahm。
First, let me remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the press release that we issued last night, along with our comments today, are effective only today, May 9, 2017, and will not be updated as actual events unfold.
首先,我要提醒大家,我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實,而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們昨晚發布的新聞稿中的前瞻性聲明以及我們今天的評論僅在今天(2017 年 5 月 9 日)有效,不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。
In our discussion today, we will talk about results excluding merger-related costs, and we'll compare 2017 results to prior year combined results, which assumes Marriott's acquisition of Starwood and Starwood's sale of its Timeshare business was completed on January 1, 2015. Of course, comparisons to our prior year reported results are in last night's press release, which you can find along with a reconciliation of our non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks on our website at www.marriott.com/investor.
在今天的討論中,我們將討論不計入合併相關成本的業績,並將 2017 年的業績與上一年的合併業績進行比較,假設萬豪收購喜達屋以及喜達屋出售其分時度假業務已於 2015 年 1 月 1 日完成。當然,與我們上一年公佈的業績進行比較,請參閱昨晚的新聞稿,您可以在我們的網站 www.marriott.com/investor 上找到該新聞稿以及我們在聲明中提到的非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。
So let's get started. Over the past few weeks, we held hotel general manager conferences around the world from Toronto to Mexico City, New Orleans to Dubai and London to Macau. At those meetings, we discussed the tremendous potential of the new Marriott International, whether it was capturing economies of scale from our substantially broader distribution, capitalizing on opportunities for revenue and cost synergies or building on the excitement about our loyalty programs, the enthusiasm and energy of the general managers was simply terrific. We are successfully melding 2 talented organizations and it's exciting to see everyone working together.
那麼,我們就開始吧。過去幾週,我們在世界各地舉辦了飯店總經理會議,從多倫多到墨西哥城,從新奧爾良到杜拜,從倫敦到澳門。在這些會議上,我們討論了新萬豪國際的巨大潛力,無論是從我們大幅擴大的分銷管道中獲得規模經濟效益,還是利用收入和成本協同效應的機會,亦或是利用人們對我們忠誠度計劃的熱情,總經理們的熱情和活力都非常棒。我們正在成功地將兩個優秀的組織融合在一起,看到大家一起工作,真是令人興奮。
At every stop, there was tremendous optimism about our future. I expect our strong results in the first quarter will increase that optimism. Given the extensive integration work that is underway, I am proud of our hotel teams around the world for their focus on running the business, taking care of guests and driving results.
每到一個地方,我們都對未來充滿樂觀。我預期第一季強勁的業績將增強這種樂觀情緒。鑑於目前正在進行的大規模整合工作,我為我們世界各地的酒店團隊感到自豪,他們專注於經營業務、照顧客人並取得業績。
Across our company, worldwide system-wide RevPAR increased 3.1% in the first quarter, with a nearly 2 percentage point improvement in occupancy. Worldwide RevPAR index rose for both Legacy-Marriott and Legacy-Starwood portfolios, increasing nearly 1 full point on a combined basis.
我們公司全球系統範圍內的第一季每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 3.1%,入住率提高了近 2 個百分點。全球RevPAR指數在Legacy-Marriott和Legacy-Starwood旗下飯店組合中均有所上升,合計上升了近1個百分點。
Our operating teams kept their eye on the ball, translating RevPAR growth into 100 basis points of higher house profit margin. We added more than 17,000 rooms in the quarter and increased the development pipeline by nearly 10,000 rooms. With the improvement in RevPAR and margins and continued growth in distribution, our first quarter combined fee revenue grew 6%, adjusted EBITDA increased 10%, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 38% over the prior year combined results.
我們的營運團隊始終專注於目標,將每間可供出租客房收入的成長轉化為更高的飯店利潤率 100 個基點。本季我們新增了超過 17,000 間客房,並將在建客房數量增加了近 10,000 間。隨著每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 和利潤率的提高以及分銷渠道的持續增長,我們第一季的綜合費用收入增長了 6%,調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 10%,調整後的稀釋每股收益 (EPS) 比上年同期增長了 38%。
In North America, system-wide RevPAR rose 3.1% in the quarter. Our hotels in the Greater Washington, D.C. area benefited from January's inauguration and Women's March. System-wide RevPAR in D.C. increased 15% in the quarter compared to the prior year and well ahead of our expectations. The performance in Hawaii also exceeded expectations. Strong trends in demand came from both mainland and international guests, pushing system-wide RevPAR up 7%. The rough weather on the U.S. West Coast likely encouraged some last-minute bookings to the islands.
北美地區本季系統平均每間可供出租客房收入成長了3.1%。1 月的就職典禮和婦女大遊行使我們在大華盛頓特區地區的酒店受益匪淺。與去年同期相比,華盛頓特區的系統平均每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)在本季度增長了 15%,遠超我們的預期。在夏威夷的演出也超出了預期。來自中國大陸和國際遊客的強勁需求趨勢推動系統整體每間可供出租客房收入成長 7%。美國西海岸惡劣的天氣可能促使一些人臨時預訂前往島嶼的行程。
Demand in Canada was particularly strong, with comparable constant dollar RevPAR rising 10% in the quarter. This year is Canada's 150th anniversary, and Montréal's 375th. With favorable exchange rates, our hotels in Canada are hosting more international guests, ready to celebrate. Laura is already packing her bags for this summer. While these markets were particularly strong, RevPAR also exceeded expectations in many other North American markets. Across the North American region, group RevPAR rose 7.7% year-over-year, benefiting from the events in Washington and the shift in the Easter holiday to the second quarter.
加拿大市場需求特別強勁,以固定匯率計算的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)在本季成長了 10%。今年是加拿大建國150週年,也是蒙特婁建城375週年。由於匯率有利,我們在加拿大的酒店接待了更多準備慶祝的國際客人。勞拉已經開始收拾行李,準備迎接這個夏天了。雖然這些市場表現特別強勁,但北美其他許多市場的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)也超出了預期。北美地區集團每間可供出租客房收入年增 7.7%,受益於華盛頓發生的事件以及復活節假期移至第二季。
Group RevPAR modestly exceeded our expectations due to strong attendance at group meetings, while meeting planners continued to add last minute food, beverage and ancillary spending. Full year 2017 group revenue booking pace for all our North American full service hotels is up 1.6% over a strong 2016 group year. We've seen some weakness in new bookings from small groups in recent months, but with very strong occupancy rates at many hotels and 86% of our anticipated 2017 group business already in the books. Space constraints have also made adding new groups more challenging.
由於團體會議出席率高,團體每間可供出租客房收入略微超出預期,同時會議策劃者繼續在最後一刻增加食品、飲料和輔助支出。2017 年全年,我們所有北美全服務飯店的集團營收預訂速度比強勁的 2016 年集團營收成長了 1.6%。近幾個月來,我們看到小團體的新預訂量有所下降,但許多飯店的入住率非常高,我們預計 2017 年的團體業務已有 86% 預訂完畢。空間限制也使得新增小組更具挑戰性。
Meeting planners, recognizing that meeting space is filling, continue to book earlier, in some cases, for multiple years, a practice we have encouraged. By the way, with nearly 4,500 hotels in North America, we have a great selection for meeting planners, whether they are booking a large meeting for multiple years or a small meeting for next week. In fact, in the first quarter, group RevPAR at our limited-service hotels increased 10% and booking pace for our Legacy-Marriott limited-service hotels for the full year is up over 5%.
會議策劃者意識到會議場地正在被預訂一空,因此繼續提前預訂,在某些情況下甚至預訂數年,我們一直鼓勵這種做法。順便一提,我們在北美擁有近 4500 家酒店,無論會議策劃者是預訂為期多年的大型會議,還是下週的小型會議,我們都能提供豐富的選擇。事實上,第一季我們有限服務酒店的集團每間可供出租客房收入增長了 10%,而我們 Legacy-Marriott 有限服務酒店的全年預訂速度增長了 5% 以上。
Transient RevPAR in North America was up nearly 2% year-over-year in the quarter, constrained by the timing of Easter and high occupancy rates. At the same time, transient demand exceeded our expectations and we improved the mix of transient revenue, drawing more high-rated retail and corporate customers and reducing discounts. In the second quarter, we expect lower group business year-over-year due to the timing of Easter. As a result, we expect North American system-wide RevPAR will be flat to up 2% in the second quarter, and will increase 1% to 3% for the full year.
受復活節假期時間和高入住率的限制,北美地區的臨時RevPAR在本季年增近2%。同時,臨時客流需求超出預期,我們改善了臨時客流收入組成,吸引了更多高評價的零售和企業客戶,並減少了折扣。由於復活節的時間安排,我們預計第二季集團業務將年減。因此,我們預計北美系統整體每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)第二季將持平或成長 2%,全年將成長 1% 至 3%。
On a preliminary basis, April year-to-date RevPAR system-wide for North America is up roughly 2%. Our North America 2017 RevPAR guidance is 100 basis points ahead of the guidance we issued in February. To be sure, transient demand was better than expected in the first quarter and our outlook for full year transient business has improved a bit. But even in February, when we last issued guidance, we were expecting our first quarter RevPAR growth would be somewhat over the midpoint of our 0% to 2% RevPAR forecast. So moving our North America RevPAR guidance to 1% to 3% isn't quite as large a shift as it may first appear.
初步數據顯示,4 月北美地區系統整體的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 較年初增長了約 2%。我們對 2017 年北美地區每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的預期比 2 月發布的預期高出 100 個基點。可以肯定的是,第一季的短期住宿需求優於預期,我們對全年短期住宿業務的展望也略有改善。但即使在 2 月我們上次發佈業績指引時,我們也預期第一季的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長率將略高於我們 0% 至 2% 的 RevPAR 預測的中點。因此,將北美RevPAR預期調整為1%至3%,並沒有乍看之下那麼大的轉變。
In the Asia-Pacific region, we're encouraged by recent economic growth. First quarter system-wide RevPAR increased 5%, with strength in retail and corporate business. RevPAR in India and Indonesia increased at double-digit rates while in greater China, system-wide RevPAR rose 5% with strength in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen. Hotels in mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau outperformed our expectations in the quarter.
亞太地區近期的經濟成長令人鼓舞。第一季系統整體RevPAR成長5%,零售及企業業務表現強勁。印度和印尼的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 以兩位數的速度成長,而大中華區的整體 RevPAR 成長了 5%,其中北京、上海和深圳表現強勁。本季度,中國大陸、香港和澳門的酒店業績超乎預期。
Given these trends, we expect our second quarter and full year RevPAR in the Asia-Pacific region will increase at a mid-single-digit rate. This is higher than our prior guidance due to strengthening transient demand. RevPAR also exceeded expectations in Europe, increasing 7% year-over-year on solid transient and group demand and strong international arrivals. European room nights sold to U.S. travelers alone increased at a mid-teens rate in the first quarter. Greater group business in the U.K. and Germany allowed us to improve the mix of transient business in those markets, and RevPAR growth at our Paris hotels was ahead of expectations. We expect our hotels in Europe will continue to show strength through 2017 and we expect our second quarter and full year RevPAR will increase at a mid-single-digit rate, a bit higher than our last guidance.
鑑於這些趨勢,我們預計亞太地區第二季和全年的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)將以中等個位數的速度成長。由於短期需求增強,這一數字高於我們先前的預期。歐洲的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 也超出預期,年增 7%,這得益於穩定的散客和團體需求以及強勁的國際遊客數量。第一季度,僅售給美國遊客的歐洲飯店客房夜數就以兩位數以上的速度成長。英國和德國的團體業務成長使我們能夠改善這些市場的散客業務組合,而我們在巴黎的酒店每間可供出租客房收入的增長也超出了預期。我們預計 2017 年我們在歐洲的酒店將繼續保持強勁勢頭,我們預計第二季度和全年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 將以中等個位數的速度增長,略高於我們之前的預期。
In the Middle East, RevPAR growth in the first quarter was flat, consistent with our expectations. Geopolitical unrest, low oil prices and lower government spending continued to depress hotel results. The good news was in Africa where RevPAR increased more than 18%, with strength in Egypt. RevPAR in South Africa alone increased 9%, as the weak rand continued to attract tourism to this great destination. Middle East RevPAR continues to be a challenge to forecast. While we aren't modeling a meaningful change in oil prices or government spending, comparisons should get easier in most markets as the year progresses. As a result, we expect Middle East, Africa RevPAR will be modestly lower in the second quarter, but improve in the second half, resulting in flattish performance for the full year 2017.
在中東地區,第一季的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長持平,與我們的預期一致。地緣政治動盪、油價低迷和政府支出減少繼續抑製酒店業績。好消息是,非洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長超過 18%,其中埃及表現最為強勁。光是南非一地的每間可供出租客房收入就增加了 9%,疲軟的蘭特繼續吸引遊客前往這個絕佳的旅遊目的地。中東地區的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)預測仍充滿挑戰。雖然我們並未模擬石油價格或政府支出的重大變化,但隨著時間的推移,大多數市場的比較應該會變得更容易。因此,我們預計中東和非洲地區的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)在第二季度將略有下降,但在下半年將有所改善,從而使 2017 年全年業績保持平穩。
In the Caribbean and Latin America, system-wide RevPAR in the first quarter declined 2% year-over-year. RevPAR in Mexico increased at a high-teens rate while RevPAR declined in the Caribbean, largely due to lower leisure demand with the shift in the Easter holiday. Lower RevPAR in South America reflected a weak economy and oversupply in Brazil. You may recall that the Zika virus began to impact our business in February of 2016. We expect easier comparisons in the region late in the year, and stronger performance in the Caribbean in the second quarter due to the shift in Easter holiday. This should yield a low single-digit increase in RevPAR in both the second quarter and full year 2017.
在加勒比海和拉丁美洲,第一季的系統平均每間可供出租客房收入較去年同期下降了 2%。墨西哥的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 以接近 10% 的速度增長,而加勒比地區的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 則有所下降,這主要是由於復活節假期時間的改變導致休閒需求減少。南美洲RevPAR(每間可供出租客房收入)下降,反映出巴西經濟疲軟和供應過剩。您可能還記得,寨卡病毒從 2016 年 2 月開始影響我們的業務。我們預計今年下半年該地區的業績比較基數會降低,並且由於復活節假期的調整,加勒比地區在第二季度的業績會更加強勁。這應該會使 2017 年第二季和全年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 實現個位數低成長。
With this solid improvement in international RevPAR, we expect second quarter and full year worldwide 2017 RevPAR will increase 1% to 3%. Our full year worldwide RevPAR growth outlook is about 50 basis points higher than our prior guidance, largely due to better than expected results in the first quarter and improving demand in Asia and Europe. In the first quarter, margins at company-operated hotels improved 100 basis points due to stronger RevPAR growth, better productivity, lower food cost and improved billing processes. Productivity was helped by ongoing service innovations such as Your Choice, our program that allows loyalty members the option to choose between daily housekeeping or bonus loyalty points.
隨著國際RevPAR的穩定提升,我們預計2017年第二季和全年全球RevPAR將成長1%至3%。我們預計全年全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長將比先前的預期高出約 50 個基點,這主要是由於第一季業績優於預期,以及亞洲和歐洲的需求不斷改善。第一季度,由於每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長強勁、生產效率提高、食品成本降低以及結算流程改進,公司自營酒店的利潤率提高了 100 個基點。持續的服務創新,例如我們的「您的選擇」計劃,提高了生產力。此計劃允許忠誠會員選擇每日客房清潔服務或獎勵忠誠積分。
In the first quarter, our development pipeline increased to over 430,000 rooms, including 166,000 rooms already under construction. Today, according to Smith Travel Research, 1 in 3 hotels under construction in the U.S. and 1 in 4 hotels under construction worldwide is associated with one of our brands. Our development success is impressive given the development climate in North America. While lending has eased for open hotels, financing for new hotel construction is challenging with growing equity requirements. Construction costs have moved higher, and we've seen some project delays in North America due to shortages of skilled subcontractors.
第一季度,我們的在建項目增加到超過 430,000 間客房,其中包括 166,000 間已在建設中的客房。根據史密斯旅遊研究公司的數據,目前美國在建酒店中有三分之一,全球在建酒店中有四分之一都與我們的品牌有關。考慮到北美的發展環境,我們的發展成就令人矚目。雖然已開業的飯店貸款條件有所放寬,但新建飯店的融資面臨挑戰,因為股權要求不斷提高。由於熟練分包商短缺,北美地區的建築成本不斷上漲,導致一些專案延期。
Hotel development is picking up in Asia, even as new construction moderates in China and India. We are seeing an uptick in conversions in those countries and greater construction elsewhere in the Pacific Rim. We continue to see considerable limited-service development interest in Europe overall, with growing interest in Western Europe. Limited-service hotels are also growing in popularity with Middle East developers, particularly in tertiary markets.
儘管中國和印度的新建酒店數量有所放緩,但亞洲的酒店開發正在加速成長。我們看到這些國家的房屋改建數量增加,太平洋沿岸其他地區的建築業也蓬勃發展。我們看到歐洲整體對有限服務型飯店的發展興趣依然濃厚,尤其對西歐的興趣日益增長。有限服務型飯店在中東開發商中也越來越受歡迎,尤其是在三線城市市場。
Demand for our brands remains high, and we are on track to deliver 6% net unit growth in 2017. Throughout the company, our teams are making tremendous progress on the Starwood integration. We've already the transitioned HR systems for Starwood hotels in the U.S. and expect other continents will follow later in 2017. In March, we added 36,000 associates to the Marriott payroll system. For our guests, all our hotels worldwide are now on an integrated system for guest event and social media feedback. This summer, we expect to publish harmonized global brand standards which, along with regular audits, is an essential step in establishing property accountability and maintaining guest satisfaction.
市場對我們品牌的需求依然旺盛,我們預計在 2017 年實現 6% 的淨銷售成長。公司各團隊在整合喜達屋方面取得了巨大進展。我們已經完成了美國喜達屋酒店的人力資源系統轉型,並預計其他大洲將在 2017 年稍後跟進。3月份,我們在萬豪薪資系統中增加了36,000名員工。為了方便我們的客人,我們全球所有酒店現在都採用了整合系統,用於收集客人活動和社交媒體回饋。今年夏天,我們預計將發布統一的全球品牌標準,該標準與定期審核一起,是建立物業責任制和保持賓客滿意度的重要一步。
We've converted Starwood-owned and managed hotels in North America to our procurement system. Elsewhere in the world, we are reviewing and renegotiating vendor contracts to leverage our purchasing power. We are also using our purchasing platforms to track actual hotel spend to ensure the hotels realize the savings. We have already migrated all U.S. Starwood Hotels to Marriott's OTA contracts. Hotels in other continents will follow soon. This should reduce the cost of OTA bookings as well as improve inventory control. We are rolling out Marriott's guestroom entertainment platform to Starwood properties. This will lay the foundation for an enhanced television experience, including on-demand streaming content and services. We are also enhancing the SPG app to enable guests at most hotels to take advantage of mobile check-in and checkout.
我們已將喜達屋在北美擁有和管理的酒店全部納入我們的採購系統。在世界其他地方,我們正在審查和重新談判供應商合同,以利用我們的購買力。我們還利用採購平台追蹤酒店的實際支出,以確保酒店真正節省。我們已經將所有美國喜達屋酒店遷移到萬豪的OTA合約中。其他大洲的酒店也將很快效仿。這應該可以降低OTA預訂的成本,並改善庫存控制。我們將萬豪酒店的客房娛樂平台推廣到喜達屋酒店集團旗下酒店。這將為提升電視體驗奠定基礎,包括點播串流內容和服務。我們也在改進 SPG 應用程序,使大多數飯店的客人能夠使用手機辦理入住和退房手續。
In April, we transitioned over 100 company-operated Starwood hotels in the U.S. to our above-property shared service model for finance and accounting. We are on track to unify our financial reporting infrastructure in early 2018 and to realize a common technology platform for reservations and loyalty programs in late 2018. Drawing from both Legacy-Marriott and Legacy-Starwood staff, cross functional teams are coordinating meaningful change in virtually every aspect of our company's operation. This effort is enormous, and we are seeing meaningful results today and even more just over the horizon. I'm incredibly proud of the many people working on this integration and they have my sincere thanks. As you can tell, we are excited about our business and encouraged by recent trends.
今年四月,我們把美國 100 多家公司自營的喜達屋酒店過渡到我們酒店以上的財務和會計共享服務模式。我們正按計劃推進財務報告基礎設施的統一工作,預計將於 2018 年初完成,並於 2018 年底實現預訂和忠誠度計劃的通用技術平台。由原萬豪酒店集團和原喜達屋酒店集團的員工組成的跨職能團隊正在協調公司運作幾乎所有方面的重大變革。這項工作意義重大,我們今天已經看到了顯著的成果,未來將會取得更大的成就。我為參與這項整合工作的眾多人員感到無比自豪,並向他們致以衷心的感謝。如您所見,我們對我們的業務充滿熱情,並受到近期趨勢的鼓舞。
Now to explain how RevPAR and unit growth translates to EPS growth, let me turn things over to Leeny. Leeny?
現在,為了解釋 RevPAR 和單位成長如何轉化為 EPS 成長,我把麥克風交給 Leeny。莉妮?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Thank you, Arne. For the first quarter of 2017, adjusted diluted earnings per share totaled $1.01, $0.12 ahead of the midpoint of our guidance, $0.87 to $0.91. Fee revenue contributed $0.06 of the outperformance due to better-than-expected RevPAR growth, branding fees and incentive fees. Results on our owned, leased and other line outperformed by $0.03, largely due to better-than-expected property results. Adjusted general and administrative costs were better than expected by about $0.03, mainly due to open positions and timing.
謝謝你,阿恩。2017 年第一季度,經調整後的稀釋每股收益總計 1.01 美元,比我們先前預測的 0.87 美元至 0.91 美元的中點高出 0.12 美元。由於 RevPAR 成長優於預期、品牌費和激勵費,手續費收入為業績超預期貢獻了 0.06 美元。自有、租賃及其他業務的業績超出預期 0.03 美元,主要原因是房地產業績優於預期。調整後的管理費用比預期好約 0.03 美元,主要原因是職缺和時間安排。
Worldwide base fees increased $7 million or 3% over prior-year combined amounts, reflecting unit growth and RevPAR improvement, offset somewhat by termination, hotels that converted from management to franchise agreement and foreign exchange. With higher RevPAR and growing distribution, franchise fees increased 10% in the quarter. Also included in franchise fees are application fees, relicensing fees and fees from our Timeshare credit card and residential businesses. Together, these fees totaled nearly $100 million in the quarter, 14% higher than combined results in the prior year. Branding fees were particularly strong. Incentive fees increased 2% year-over-year in the first quarter, constrained by deferred fees recognized in 2016 and unfavorable foreign exchange.
全球基本費用較上年同期增加 700 萬美元或 3%,反映了單位數量增長和每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的提高,但部分被終止協議、酒店從管理協議轉為特許經營協議以及外匯波動所抵消。由於每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 增加和分銷管道擴大,本季特許經營費增加了 10%。特許經營費還包括申請費、重新許可費以及我們分時度假信用卡和住宅業務的費用。本季這些費用總計近 1 億美元,比去年同期成長 14%。品牌推廣費用尤其高昂。受 2016 年確認的遞延費用和不利的匯率影響,第一季激勵費用較去年同期成長 2%。
At the same time, incentive fees were about $17 million better than expected, with $10 million of the outperformance coming from a significant number of North American full-serviced hotels and $7 million from hotels in the Asia-Pacific region. We expect roughly $5 million of our North America incentive fees outperformance at seasonal hotels will be reversed later in the year. Since hotels in the Asia-Pacific region typically don't have owner priorities, reversals there are not likely.
同時,激勵費用比預期高出約 1700 萬美元,其中 1000 萬美元來自北美眾多全方位服務酒店,700 萬美元來自亞太地區的酒店。我們預計,今年晚些時候,我們在北美季節性酒店獲得的約 500 萬美元獎勵費用的超額收益將被抵銷。由於亞太地區的飯店通常沒有業主優先權,因此不太可能出現逆轉。
For the second quarter, we expect worldwide incentive fees will likely be flattish due to the timing of Easter. For the full year, with stronger RevPAR guidance and strong margins, we believe total incentive fees could increase at a mid-single-digit rate. Owned, leased and other revenue net of expenses totaled $81 million in the first quarter, a 6% decline from the prior year. Improved performance was more than offset by lower termination fees, which declined $7 million and the impact of asset sales in the past 12 months, which reduced year-over-year results by $4 million. Owned, leased and other revenue net of expenses was $16 million better than we expected in the first quarter, largely due to forecast fee at hotels in Atlanta, Barcelona, London, Toronto and Tokyo as well as about $6 million in the higher-than-expected termination fees.
由於復活節的時間安排,我們預計第二季全球激勵費用可能會保持穩定。鑑於全年RevPAR預期強勁且利潤率較高,我們認為總激勵費用可能會以中等個位數的速度成長。第一季度,自有、租賃和其他收入扣除支出後總計 8,100 萬美元,比上年同期下降 6%。業績的改善被較低的終止費(減少了 700 萬美元)以及過去 12 個月資產出售的影響(同比減少了 400 萬美元)所抵消。第一季度,自有、租賃和其他收入扣除支出後比預期高出 1600 萬美元,這主要是由於亞特蘭大、巴塞隆納、倫敦、多倫多和東京的酒店預計獲得的費用,以及約 600 萬美元高於預期的終止費。
In the second quarter, we expect owned, leased and other revenue net of expenses will total roughly $90 million compared to $115 million in the prior year. We estimate the negative impact of asset sales will be about $15 million in the second quarter, and we also expect lower results in Rio de Janeiro and New York. Our guidance for owned and leased hotels assumes no further asset sales this year. For the full year, we expect owned leased results will total $340 million to $350 million compared to $426 million in 2016. The full year comparison to last year's combined results includes a $40 million negative impact from asset sales, including the Westin Maui, $25 million to $30 million in lower hotel results, again, largely in Rio and New York, and $15 million in lower termination fees.
第二季度,我們預計自有資產、租賃資產和其他資產扣除支出後的總收入約為 9,000 萬美元,而去年同期為 1.15 億美元。我們估計資產出售將在第二季造成約 1500 萬美元的負面影響,我們也預計裡約熱內盧和紐約的業績會下降。我們對自有和租賃酒店的業績預期是基於今年不會再進行資產出售的假設。預計全年自有租賃業績總額將達 3.4 億美元至 3.5 億美元,而 2016 年為 4.26 億美元。與去年同期業績相比,全年業績受到以下因素影響:資產出售(包括威斯汀毛伊島酒店)造成 4000 萬美元的負面影響;酒店業績下降 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元(主要集中在裡約熱內盧和紐約);以及終止費減少 1500 萬美元。
While asset sales reduced owned leased results, they also increased management fees and free up capital for reinvestment in our business or return to shareholders. Adjusted general and administrative expenses declined by $36 million in the first quarter and beat our expectations by $17 million, largely reflecting cost reductions, open positions and timing as the integration continues. We expect G&A will total $220 million to $225 million in the second quarter and $880 million to $890 million for the full year.
雖然資產出售降低了自有租賃業務的業績,但也增加了管理費,並釋放了資金用於再投資於我們的業務或回報給股東。第一季經調整的一般及行政費用減少了 3600 萬美元,比我們的預期減少了 1700 萬美元,這主要反映了成本削減、職位空缺以及隨著整合工作的繼續推進,時間安排有所改善。我們預計第二季一般及行政費用總額為 2.2 億美元至 2.25 億美元,全年為 8.8 億美元至 8.9 億美元。
Compared to our prior guidance, the improvement in our full year outlook for G&A largely reflects the better-than-expected results achieved in the first quarter. We continue to expect to achieve our annualized $250 million in cost synergies by 2018, including over $200 million in annualized savings in 2017. In the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA increased 10%. Adjusted EPS in 2017 should total $3.92 to $4.09, an increase of 19% to 24% over prior year combined results. For the full year, we expect 2017 adjusted EBITDA will total $3.1 billion to $3.195 billion, an increase of 4% to 7%.
與我們先前的預期相比,全年一般及行政費用展望的改善主要反映了第一季取得的超出預期的業績。我們仍然期望在 2018 年實現每年 2.5 億美元的成本綜效,其中包括 2017 年超過 2 億美元的年度節省。第一季調整後 EBITDA 成長 10%。2017 年調整後每股盈餘應為 3.92 美元至 4.09 美元,比上年同期合併業績成長 19% 至 24%。我們預計 2017 年全年調整後 EBITDA 將達到 31 億美元至 31.95 億美元,成長 4% 至 7%。
You may recall that in our February guidance for 2017, adjusted EBITDA was 3% to 6% higher than the prior year. We've increased our estimate of adjusted EBITDA since February to reflect higher fees, lower G&A and stronger profitability of owned and leased hotels, somewhat offset by the sale of the Westin Maui. As you can see on Page A10 in the release, our new estimate of full year adjusted EBITDA also reflects some fine-tuning of the add backs to net income, including correcting the share base compensation line by $27 million. That amount should have been excluded as it was the merger-related portion of the share-based compensation costs.
您可能還記得,在我們 2 月發布的 2017 年業績指引中,調整後的 EBITDA 比上年增長了 3% 至 6%。自 2 月以來,我們提高了對調整後 EBITDA 的估計,以反映更高的費用、更低的 G&A 以及自有和租賃酒店更強的盈利能力,但威斯汀毛伊島酒店的出售在一定程度上抵消了這些增長。正如您在新聞稿 A10 頁上看到的那樣,我們對全年調整後 EBITDA 的新估計也反映了對淨收入加回項目的一些微調,包括將股份基本補償項目修正 2700 萬美元。該金額本應排除在外,因為它是與合併相關的股權激勵成本部分。
Investment spending for the year could total $500 million to $700 million, including about $175 million in maintenance spending. To date, in 2017, we have recycled roughly $320 million through asset sales and note repayments. Cash balances were high at quarter-end as we received the roughly $300 million in proceeds from the sale of the Westin Maui on March 31. We repurchased over 10 million shares through last week for approximately $925 million in '17. We anticipate returning over $2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2017. Our guidance does not include the impact of possible asset sales beyond those already completed.
今年的投資支出總額可能達到 5 億至 7 億美元,其中包括約 1.75 億美元的維護支出。截至 2017 年,我們已透過資產出售和票據償還回收了約 3.2 億美元。由於我們在 3 月 31 日收到了出售威斯汀毛伊島酒店所得的約 3 億美元,季度末現金餘額較高。截至上週,我們在 2017 年回購了超過 1,000 萬股股票,總金額約 9.25 億美元。我們預計 2017 年將透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還超過 20 億美元。我們的指導意見並未考慮已完成資產出售以外的其他可能資產出售的影響。
We appreciate your interest in Marriott. We'll take your questions now.
感謝您對萬豪酒店的關注。現在開始回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from David Katz with Telsey group.
(操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Telsey 集團的 David Katz。
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Research Analyst
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Research Analyst
I wanted to just probe a little bit more about the guidance, and I know you've given quite a bit of detail around a lot of things, but if I'm trying to balance between your perspective on the economic climate taken in total for the remainder of the year versus the execution of the integration and just the execution of the business combination, how much of your improvement today would you say you would allocate to both?
我想就指導意見再深入探討一下,我知道您已經詳細闡述了很多方面,但如果我想在您對今年剩餘時間整體經濟形勢的看法與整合的執行情況以及業務合併的執行情況之間取得平衡,您認為您今天取得的進步有多少應該歸因於這兩方面?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
That's a good question, and I'm not sure we've necessarily broken it down that way in our internal calculations. Although, clearly, as we've noted, the driving -- the most significant driving factors in our increase in our RevPAR guidance was the strength of the first quarter, including in North America and the rest of the world and the momentum that's particularly occurring in Europe and Asia-Pacific. The U.S. results -- North American results, as well as the global results obviously, were stronger in the first quarter in part because we took share. So we talked about 1 point -- nearly 1 point index growth in both the Marriott and Starwood portfolios, and it would be hard fairly to attribute all of that 1 point increase to the success of the integration, but I don't, at the same time, think that it's entirely unrelated to that. And so I think we are getting a little bit of juice that is coming from bringing these 2 companies together. At the same time, there's clearly a strength around the world was because of a stronger demand environment as well. So I think the economic -- underlying economic situation is also contributing. I can't give you percentages for each, but I would say both are a factor.
這是一個很好的問題,我不確定我們在內部計算中是否真的這樣分解過。雖然很明顯,正如我們所指出的,推動我們提高每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 預期的最重要因素是第一季度的強勁表現,包括北美和世界其他地區的強勁表現,以及尤其在歐洲和亞太地區出現的增長勢頭。美國業績-北美業績以及全球業績顯然在第一季表現強勁,部分原因是我們的市佔率有所成長。所以我們談到了萬豪和喜達屋投資組合中指數增長了 1 點——接近 1 點的增長,雖然很難將這 1 點的增長完全歸功於整合的成功,但同時,我認為這與整合並非完全無關。所以我認為,這兩家公司的合併為我們帶來了一些好處。同時,全球強勁的成長也明顯得益於更強勁的需求環境。所以我認為經濟——潛在的經濟情勢——也是一個促成因素。我無法給出每個因素的具體百分比,但我認為兩者都是一個影響因素。
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Research Analyst
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Research Analyst
Got it. And if we're looking at the -- what's left of the owned portfolios of the combined company, Leeny, where are we in terms of selling things off and how we should -- I heard you that you've guided as though the owned portfolio remains where it is, but what inning or what can you tell us about how much progress you've made, and what we might reasonably expect you to sell in the remainder of the year and into next year?
知道了。如果我們正在審視合併後公司Leeny旗下剩餘的資產組合,那麼在出售方面,我們進展如何?我們應該如何出售?我聽說您一直表示,您認為現有資產組合將保持不變,但您能否告訴我們您取得了多少進展,以及我們可以合理預期您在今年剩餘時間和明年將出售哪些資產?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Sure. I think, David, we continue to be comfortable with the commentary that we've made before about selling over $1.5 billion of real estate by the time we get to the end of '18. I would also say that we continue to be confident that there will be further asset sales in '17. Beyond that, as I'm sure you know, predicting the exact closing and timing of specific transactions is very hard to do. But I think we're pleased with the progress and we're moving along.
當然。大衛,我認為,我們仍然對我們先前所做的預測感到滿意,即到 2018 年底,我們將售出價值超過 15 億美元的房地產。我還要說,我們仍然有信心在 2017 年會有更多資產出售。除此之外,我相信您也知道,預測特定交易的確切完成時間和地點是非常困難的。但我認為我們對目前的進展感到滿意,我們正在向前邁進。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
I wanted to clarify your comment on -- about group booking comments. It sounded like what you have on the books for the rest of the year, is it the pace, sort of like North American full-service group is up 1.6%. And I think last quarter that you had said it was pacing up 3%, but I don't know if using the same exact metric in both cases, so maybe you can -- can you talk a little bit about -- it sounds like then maybe it did slow in Q1?
我想澄清一下您關於團體預訂的評論。聽起來像是你們今年剩餘時間的計劃,進度如何,有點像北美全方位服務集團增長了 1.6%。我記得上個季度您說過增速為 3%,但我不知道您兩次是否使用了完全相同的指標,所以您能談談嗎?聽起來好像第一季增速確實放緩了?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Yes, we were in the high 2s a quarter ago and again, this is full-service in North America. So it's down about a point, and that's -- it's not entirely rare to see us -- see those numbers moderate over the course of the year, as any year group bookings are the only thing that, obviously, can raise those numbers. We made a point of explaining it in our prepared comments that we think we got about 86% of the group business that we anticipate for the year on the books and, obviously, occupancies are running high, which means that we are seeing the booking window lengthen a bit, and we are seeing a bit more growth in limited-service group business than in full-service space. At the same time, I think there is still some cautionary -- something cautionary there about the data. It shows that we've got group customers that are a little reticent to make big commitments. But generally, this is pretty healthy, and so on balance, we would say don't be alarmed by it and we see good growth going forward.
是的,一個季度前我們的排名在2%以上,而且,這可是北美地區的全方位服務。所以下降了大約一個百分點,而且——我們看到這些數字在一年中逐漸趨於平穩並不罕見,因為顯然只有年度團體預訂才能提高這些數字。我們在事先準備好的評論中特意解釋說,我們認為今年我們預計的團體業務已經預訂了大約 86%,而且顯然入住率很高,這意味著我們看到預訂窗口略有延長,而且我們看到有限服務團體業務的增長比全服務空間的增長要多一些。同時,我認為數據方面仍存在一些需要謹慎對待的地方。這表明我們的一些團體客戶不太願意做出重大承諾。但總的來說,這相當健康,所以總的來說,我們認為不必為此感到擔憂,我們預計未來將有良好的成長勢頭。
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
And just based on how much you have booked for the year, where you're pacing now, that up 1.6%. Is that where you think the year ends? Or it sounded like you said maybe things could moderate during the year. Is it -- does it end up being up only up 1% -- or how does that -- things work out?
僅根據你今年的預訂量,以及你目前的進度,成長了 1.6%。你覺得一年就到此結束了嗎?或者聽起來你好像是說,也許情況會在這一年中有所緩和。最終漲幅會是 1% 嗎?還是會出乎意料的?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
No. That's probably the best single number we would have at the moment. The -- it is kind of a funny year, and I think you've heard this from some of the other players. Partly this is because of the holiday schedule, and partly it's just the normal, this is the tunes of group bookings, but Q1 and Q4 are the strongest quarters of the year. Q2 and Q3 will be a bit weaker, and that makes it a little bit hard to forecast all of this stuff, but I would think that in the high 1s, maybe some place in that place, it would be the best single number we can give you today.
不。這大概是我們目前能得到的最佳單一數字了。今年真是有點奇怪,我想你也從其他一些球員那裡聽過類似的說法。部分原因是假期安排,部分原因是團體預訂的正常情況,但第一季和第四季是一年中業績最好的季度。第二季和第三季會稍微疲軟一些,這使得預測所有這些事情變得有點困難,但我認為,在 100% 左右,或許在這個範圍內,這將是我們今天能給出的最好的單一數字。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Harry Curtis, Nomura.
下一個問題來自野村證券的哈利柯蒂斯。
Harry Croyle Curtis - MD and Senior Analyst
Harry Croyle Curtis - MD and Senior Analyst
Just following up on that line of questioning. How is the group pace looking for 2018? It's still early, but -- and maybe if you can comment on price as well.
我只是就這個問題做後續追問。2018 年集團的整體節奏如何?現在還為時過早,但是——如果您也能對價格發表一下意見就更好了。
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Let's see here. We're up in the mid-single digits, between 4% and 5%, for North American full-service for calendar 2018.
讓我看看。2018 年北美全方位服務業的成長率為個位數中段,介於 4% 到 5% 之間。
Harry Croyle Curtis - MD and Senior Analyst
Harry Croyle Curtis - MD and Senior Analyst
Okay. And then my second question, just going back to the possible asset sales. I just want to make sure that our assumptions are right. The balance of owned hotels in the Starwood portfolio, is that roughly 5,200 rooms in North America?
好的。我的第二個問題,是關於可能的資產出售。我只是想確認一下我們的假設是否正確。喜達屋旗下自有飯店的剩餘數量,大約在北美地區有 5,200 間客房?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Sensible, but in North America, I'll get you the specific numbers but...
這很合理,但這是北美的情況,我會給你具體的數字,但…
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Including Canada, yes.
是的,包括加拿大。
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Including Canada. That would -- sounds about right.
包括加拿大。聽起來好像是這樣。
Harry Croyle Curtis - MD and Senior Analyst
Harry Croyle Curtis - MD and Senior Analyst
Okay. And is it reasonable to think that roughly 300 a key is not -- is an okay ballpark to be in, in terms of its market value?
好的。認為一把鑰匙大約 300 美元的價格,就其市場價值而言,是否合理——這算是一個可以接受的大致價格範圍嗎?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Yes. I'm not going there, Harry. Just each -- that's like kind of like saying that Freemont in Chicago is the same as the St. Regis in New York is the same as Toronto, Sheraton. They are -- each one -- just like our children, each one is very unique.
是的。我不去那裡,哈利。就每個而言——這就好比說芝加哥的弗里蒙特和聖路易斯一樣。紐約的 Regis 酒店和多倫多的 Sheraton 酒店是一樣的。他們每一個都像我們的孩子一樣,每一個都是獨一無二的。
Harry Croyle Curtis - MD and Senior Analyst
Harry Croyle Curtis - MD and Senior Analyst
Well, you got to throw out the pitch to get a hit. So I'll just end it there.
要擊出安打,就得把球投出去。我就說到這裡吧。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Smedes Rose from Citi.
我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的斯梅德斯·羅斯。
Bennett Smedes Rose - Director and Analyst
Bennett Smedes Rose - Director and Analyst
You mentioned the Starwood properties moving over to your -- the Avendra platform and benefiting from lower OTA fees, and I was just wondering if you could quantify just for sort of the average hotel owner who's moved now and is enjoying these benefits. Do you have a sense of what kind of a margin expansion they might be seeing, just sort of on average?
您提到喜達屋酒店集團旗下酒店已遷移至您的 Avendra 平台,並享受更低的 OTA 費用,我想知道您能否具體說明一下,對於現在已經遷移並享受這些好處的普通酒店業主而言,具體情況如何。您能否大致估算一下他們的平均利潤率擴張幅度?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Well, first of all, Smedes, I would say so far, very little. So far, in general, this all happened during the first quarter in both cases. So really, in terms of Q1 margins, although there is some great work done in benchmarking and working on a host of things across the brand, coming from OTA's and from Avendra, next to nothing.
首先,Smedes,我想說到目前為止,他做得很少。到目前為止,總的來說,這兩種情況都發生在第一季。所以實際上,就第一季利潤率而言,儘管在基準測試和品牌各個方面的一系列工作中都取得了很大的進展,但來自 OTA 和 Avendra 的投入卻幾乎沒有。
Bennett Smedes Rose - Director and Analyst
Bennett Smedes Rose - Director and Analyst
Okay, well, maybe then as those things are adapted more and they have a little more under the belt. Do you have a sense of what it could do for the typical Starwood hotel, or Legacy-Starwood hotel?
好吧,也許等這些事情得到更多改進,累積更多經驗之後,情況就會有所不同了。您認為它能為典型的喜達屋酒店或傳統喜達屋酒店帶來什麼影響?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
It's going to vary so tremendously in terms of where you are for OTAs because, remember, that in the U.S., it's going to be very different than overseas. And then again, Avendra is largely a U.S.-based, and there again, if you're a suburban hotel that doesn't have a lot of group versus if you have a ton of group that buys lots of food and beverage, it's going to vary -- it's going to really vary tremendously. But I will say, it will definitely be -- it will be noticeable in terms of margins from the benefit, but I wouldn't be able to quantify an average.
OTA 的情況會因您所在地區而異,因為請記住,在美國,情況與海外的情況截然不同。此外,Avendra 主要是一家總部位於美國的酒店,而且,如果你是一家郊區酒店,沒有很多團體客人,而你有很多團體客人,他們會購買大量的食物和飲料,那麼情況就會有所不同——真的會有很大的不同。但我可以肯定地說,收益肯定會有明顯提升,但我無法量化平均值。
Bennett Smedes Rose - Director and Analyst
Bennett Smedes Rose - Director and Analyst
Okay. And I just wanted to ask, you mentioned some hotels converting from management to franchise, and it's not -- I mean, is that sort of a thing as my kids would say. Is that an issue going forward for Marriot that there are a lot of options for people to convert to franchise or is that just something that's sort of well, kind of a one-off general sort of exception?
好的。我只是想問一下,您提到一些酒店從管理模式轉變為特許經營模式,這——我的意思是,這是否像我的孩子們會說的那樣?對於萬豪酒店集團來說,未來是否會面臨加盟商眾多、選擇眾多的問題,還是說這只是一個特例?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
I think it is a trend we've seen for a number of years and it's likely to continue, even as we grow the managed portfolio, particularly globally and in the big-box space with new hotels. I think in many instances, we've seen some hotels get to the point where they need substantial new capital for renovation. Often, they're sold in the context of bringing that new capital in and there is more capital eager to invest in well branded -- well branded assets that have flexibility on who's running the day-to-day operations. And we have seen that it is in our interest as well to make those transactions happen in a way that brings capital as opposed to someone else to bring them up just under.
我認為這是我們多年來一直看到的趨勢,而且這種趨勢很可能會持續下去,即使我們擴大管理投資組合,尤其是在全球範圍內以及在新建酒店的大型零售領域也是如此。我認為在很多情況下,我們看到一些酒店發展到需要大量新資金進行翻新的地步。通常情況下,這些資產是在引入新資本的背景下出售的,而且有更多資本渴望投資於品牌良好的資產——這些品牌良好的資產在日常運營的管理方面具有靈活性。我們也看到,以能夠帶來資本的方式促成這些交易,而不是讓其他人以略低於成本的方式促成交易,也符合我們的利益。
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Particularly in North America.
尤其是在北美。
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Yes. And which is a -- very much a North American phenomenon.
是的。而這,很大程度是一種北美現象。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Felicia Hendrix with Barclays.
下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的費利西亞·亨德里克斯。
Anthony Franklin Powell - Research Analyst
Anthony Franklin Powell - Research Analyst
It's actually Anthony Powell, here for Felicia. You mentioned that you're seeing better higher-rated corporate transient demand. Could you single out any industries that are driving that growth or any particular markets where you're seeing the strength? And also, I believe last call, you mentioned that you're trying to sign up more corporate contracts. So how's that going?
其實是安東尼·鮑威爾,他是來陪費莉西亞的。您提到您發現高素質企業短期住宿的需求增加。您能否具體指出哪些產業正在推動這種成長,或者您認為哪些特定市場表現強勁?另外,我記得上次通話中您提到過,您正在努力簽訂更多企業合約。進展如何?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
I think, generally, we are a -- we feel a bit more encouraged by corporate travel this quarter than we did a quarter ago in the guidance that we provided. But let's be careful about throwing all caution to the wind here. I think you've got in the corporate travel landscape lots and lots of different stories. Obviously, the energy patch continues to remain relatively weak. In fact, I think we were more optimistic about Houston a quarter ago than we are today. We sort of felt like we had hit bottom, and today, I think we're a little less confident of that. By comparison, you look at the strength we saw in Washington and look at the strike that we're seeing, that's still in the number of Western markets. We see companies that are reporting better corporate profits, and I think as consequence, you feel a bit better based both on the actual results in Q1, which to be sure, was benefited by Easter, but also by sort of what we feel as the tenure in the marketplace. And we have moved more of our transient business, including business transient business towards retail and to special corporate and away from discount. And so those things are driving a bit of a mix shift within the transient budget. All good news.
我認為,總的來說,我們對本季的企業差旅前景比上個季度我們提供的預期要樂觀一些。但是,我們不能掉以輕心。我認為在企業差旅領域,有許多不同的故事。顯然,能量波動依然相對較弱。事實上,我認為三個月前我們對休士頓的前景比現在更樂觀。我們當時感覺自己已經跌到了谷底,但今天,我覺得我們對此沒那麼有信心了。相較之下,看看我們在華盛頓看到的實力,再看看我們正在看到的罷工,這仍然影響著西方市場的數量。我們看到一些公司公佈了更好的企業利潤,我認為因此,你會感覺好一些,這既是基於第一季度的實際業績(當然,第一季的業績受益於復活節),也是基於我們認為的在市場上的穩定性。我們已將更多臨時業務(包括商務臨時業務)轉向零售和特殊企業業務,並減少了折扣業務。因此,這些因素正在推動臨時預算內的組合發生一些變化。全是好消息。
Anthony Franklin Powell - Research Analyst
Anthony Franklin Powell - Research Analyst
Got it. And then on your RevPAR index gain, can you attribute any of that to customers allocating more of their travel spend to your system due to the merger? Or are you just better at selling and getting more groups into the hotel?
知道了。那麼,就您的RevPAR指數成長而言,您能否將其部分歸因於合併後客戶將更多旅遊支出分配給您的系統?還是你只是更擅長銷售,能吸引更多團體入住飯店?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
I think by definition, it means we're getting a bit more of their spend which is -- we have relatively taken share of the industry. We don't get real-time data that would allow us to know exactly how to calculate that, but we are encouraged.
我認為從定義上講,這意味著我們獲得了他們更多的消費份額,也就是說——我們已經相對佔據了行業份額。我們沒有即時數據來準確計算該值,但我們感到鼓舞。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with SunTrust.
下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Patrick Scholes。
Charles Patrick Scholes - Research Analyst
Charles Patrick Scholes - Research Analyst
A question for you. When we're thinking about your North American RevPAR guidance of 1 to 3. I think on a previous question, you mentioned or indicated that group was sort of in the 1-ish to 2 range. How do you think about your 2 other customer segments, the individual business travel and the leisure? Where would they fit in that range?
我有個問題想問你。當我們考慮您關於北美RevPAR指導值為1到3的時候,我想在之前的一個問題中,您提到或暗示該群體大致在1到2的範圍內。您如何看待另外兩個客戶群,即個人商務旅行和休閒旅行?它們在這個範圍內處於什麼位置?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Maybe Laura or Betsy have got something precise here on that, but generally, I would think that leisure will be the strongest. You, obviously, have some markets, which have got complexities around that answer because of Zika or because of other trends and obviously, those comparisons will get easier as the year goes along. But generally, I think we would say leisure is the strongest. The transient -- business transient is obviously the shortest booking and therefore, the area we've got the least visibility into it. But I would think that corporate transit travel would be comparable, maybe a little bit better than group. And those are all North American-centric numbers too. When you look around the rest of the world, obviously you see different dynamics.
或許勞拉或貝齊對此有更確切的見解,但總的來說,我認為休閒娛樂是最強大的因素。顯然,有些市場由於寨卡病毒或其他趨勢,使得這個問題的答案變得複雜,而且顯然,隨著時間的推移,這些比較會變得更容易。但總的來說,我認為休閒娛樂是最強的因素。短期住宿-商務短期住宿顯然是預訂時間最短的,因此,我們對這方面的了解最少。但我認為公司公務旅行應該與團體出遊相當,甚至可能略好。而這些數據也都只是以北美為中心的數據。當你放眼世界其他地方時,顯然會看到不同的動態。
Charles Patrick Scholes - Research Analyst
Charles Patrick Scholes - Research Analyst
Can I ask a follow-up question? In your Investor Day, you had talked about some initial steps that you're making with Sheraton, identifying sort of the lower end properties and targeting them first. Can I get a little bit of an update on what -- how that is progressing?
我可以問一個後續問題嗎?在您的投資者日上,您談到了您與喜來登酒店集團合作的一些初步舉措,例如確定一些低端物業並首先瞄準它們。能否簡單介紹一下進展?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Yes, we are encouraged by the progress we've made so far. And as we talked about it in the Analyst Day, we have -- we're well underway in conversations with our Sheraton owners and franchisees to make sure that we are getting the input we need to have from them to publish good detailed brand standards for the Sheraton brand. At the same time, we have looked at both the bottom 25 and then the next bottom 25, so the bottom 50 Sheraton hotels, and that's by and large, relying on guest survey data and what the guests tell us about the way the hotels are being received. We are in discussions probably with 80% to 85% of those owners of those 50 hotels, nearly half of those, 50 renovations, are already underway and we've got another handful or so where we've got plans that are fairly specific that are evolving. And so that gets us to close to 60% or so, those bottom 50 that we've already got good movement on. By the way, of those 60%, there will be 2 or 3, which we already think pretty clearly, will leave the system because it doesn't make sense for us to keep them and for them to get the kind of capital that would be necessary for them to meet brand standards, but all of that gives us encouragement, though this will be a multiyear effort.
是的,我們對目前的進展感到鼓舞。正如我們在分析師日上所討論的那樣,我們已經與喜來登酒店的業主和加盟商進行了深入的對話,以確保我們能夠從他們那裡獲得所需的意見,從而為喜來登品牌發布良好的、詳細的品牌標準。同時,我們也檢視了排名墊底的 25 家飯店,以及排名倒數第二和第三的 25 家飯店,也就是排名墊底的 50 家喜來登飯店。這主要依據的是顧客調查數據以及顧客對飯店評價的回饋。我們正在與這 50 家酒店中 80% 到 85% 的業主進行洽談,其中近一半(50 家酒店)的翻新工程已經開始,我們還有幾家酒店正在製定相當具體的計劃,這些計劃也在不斷完善中。這樣一來,我們就接近了 60% 左右,也就是我們已經取得良好進展的那 50 家公司。順便說一句,在這 60% 的公司中,會有 2 到 3 家(我們已經很清楚地認為)會離開這個體系,因為對我們來說,留住它們沒有意義,而且它們也得不到達到品牌標準所需的資金,但所有這些都給了我們鼓勵,儘管這將是一項多年的努力。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。
Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD
Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD
I was wondering if you could just maybe comment a little bit more on the increase to the capital return guidance. So it looks like it moved up fairly substantially versus the last outlook provided. What was the kind of biggest driver, biggest surprise to where you -- to what you had provided kind of earlier?
我想請您再就提高資本回報預期做一些補充說明。所以看來它比上次預測的還要大幅調高。對你而言,最大的驅動力、最大的驚喜是什麼? ——與你之前所做的相比,是什麼?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
So I think the easiest way to think about it, Shaun, is that you have the Westin Maui, which at $317 million at the end of the quarter, definitely gives us more room for the rest of the year. And then you've got the reality that our EBITDA was higher than we expected and when you think about how you can lever that and use it, it gets you very quickly to $2 billion.
所以我覺得最簡單的理解方式是,肖恩,威斯汀毛伊島酒店在本季末的成交額為 3.17 億美元,這無疑為我們今年剩餘時間提供了更多空間。而且,我們的 EBITDA 比預期要高,當你思考如何利用這一點時,你會發現它很快就能達到 20 億美元。
Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD
Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD
Great. And then sort of the same question as it relates to the cost in the G&A that came in, in the quarter, Leeny. But as we think about the 2 10 and you guys clearly said a piece of this is timing related. But kind of what pieces or what components should start to ramp as we move sequentially through the year? And is there any possibility that ends up being -- still being a little bit conservative, as we just think about some of the puts and takes of the integration here?
偉大的。Leeny,這個問題與本季 G&A 費用有關。但當我們思考 2 10 時,你們也明確表示,這其中一部分與時機有關。但隨著一年中時間的推移,哪些部分或組件應該逐步增加投入呢?那麼,有沒有可能最終──我們還是稍微保守一點,想想整合過程中的一些優缺點?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Well, I hope so. That's first and foremost, I hope that's conservative. So the way I would think about it is that about call it, not quite half of the outperformance, I think, you could argue was timing-related and really will be spent some time in Q2, 3 or 4. But then also, as you think about the hiring that needs to happen in EMEA and Europe, from the close down of that, that was definitely part of what ended up driving the outperformance and all of that hiring is now ongoing. And so the rest of the quarters won't experience that same gap in openings that were held in Q1. So to make a long story short, we do think when you put the numbers together, that there is probably a little bit more additional savings as we go through the year, but it's also going to be matched with the timing delays that we had in the spending in Q1. So that's how we really get to taking the beat in Q1 and kind of using that for the full year. The other thing I'll point out is that, remember, if you're comparing to combined company results that, that you have to be careful as we look at that quarter-to-quarter going through the year because, as we moved through '16, you were finding that there were people leaving Starwood. So the quarter-over-quarter comparisons get more difficult. When you look at it at a full year, as my comments said, we're comfortable that it will be at least $200 million of the $250 million achieved in '17.
但願如此。首先,我希望這是保守的。所以我認為,大約有一半的超額收益,可以說與時機有關,而且確實會在第二、三、四季持續一段時間。但同時,考慮到歐洲、中東和非洲地區以及歐洲需要進行的招聘,從招聘暫停到最終業績超額完成,這無疑是推動業績超額完成的部分原因,而所有這些招聘工作目前仍在進行中。因此,其他季度不會像第一季那樣出現開盤價大幅上漲的情況。簡而言之,我們認為,綜合所有數據來看,隨著年內支出減少,可能會再節省一些,但這也會抵消第一季支出的延誤。所以,這就是我們如何在第一季掌握節奏,並將其運用到全年策略中的方法。我還要指出一點,記住,如果你要將公司合併後的業績進行比較,那麼在查看全年的季度業績時就必須小心,因為隨著 2016 年的推進,你會發現有人離開了喜達屋。因此,季度環比比較變得更加困難。正如我剛才所說,從全年來看,我們有信心至少能達到 2 億美元,而 2017 年的收入為 2.5 億美元。
Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD
Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD
And sorry, last one, but did you ever -- have you ever given that $200 million before?
抱歉,最後一個問題,但您之前是否曾經——您是否曾捐贈過 2 億美元?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Well, we talked actually -- at our last call, we talked about thinking that we'd be roughly $185 million of this $250 million that we felt like in 2017 and frankly, now, with the beat, I think we're confident that the $200 million is at least a good number for '17.
其實我們上次通話時也討論過,我們當時覺得 2017 年我們可以達到 2.5 億美元,大概可以達到 1.85 億美元。坦白說,現在有了進展,我覺得我們有信心 2 億美元至少是 2017 年的一個好數字。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Joe Greff with the JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Just back to the topic of group and group pace for 2017. When you look at the components of the group pace, is there a big difference between association or large attendance group versus nonassociation or smaller attendance group?
回到 2017 年的小組和小組配速這個主題。從團體進度的組成部分來看,協會團體或參與人數較多的團體與非協會團體或參與人數較少的團體之間是否存在很大的差異?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Short answer is I don't know. I would -- let me just take a peek here at these notes. Looks like in order of strength, association would be the strongest, then corporate; and not surprisingly, you get things like government. Government would be weakest. But not a huge gap between them, between association and corporate.
簡而言之,我不知道。我——讓我先看一下這些筆記。依實力排序來看,社團最強,其次是企業;不出所料,政府等組織也名列其中。政府將是最弱勢的一方。但協會和企業之間並沒有巨大的差距。
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Okay. And then your earlier comments -- in your earlier comments, Arne, you mentioned that financing similar to hotel construction is challenging. Are you willing or are you getting requests to invest more in some of these new projects?
好的。還有你之前的評論——Arne,你在之前的評論中提到,與酒店建設類似的融資面臨挑戰。您是否願意或收到要求您為其中一些新項目追加投資的請求?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
We're not really getting requests to invest in these new projects.
我們並沒有收到投資這些新項目的請求。
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
No, not meaningfully.
不,沒有實質的影響。
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
The bulk of this is about select service franchise development in North America. That is not a place where we have ever really used our balance sheet in a material way and wouldn't anticipate that, that would ever change. I do think, you're not really asking this question, but I'll go ahead and talk about it anyway, I think because of land and construction cost and financing for new builds, I think we're likely to continue to see that 2015 was the sort of peak for sign ins of select service growth in the United States. And '16 was obviously strong as well. I think '17 will be strong, but will not be at the same levels that we saw in 2015. And the only way we'll see that ramp back up, I think, would be -- with definitive proof of a stronger GDP environment and stronger performance environment than is even reflected in the guidance that we're giving today.
大部分內容是關於北美精選服務特許經營的發展。我們從未真正大規模地動用過資產負債表來做這件事,也不認為這種情況會改變。我覺得,雖然你並沒有真正問這個問題,但我還是想談談我的看法。我認為,由於土地和建築成本以及新建項目的融資問題,我們可能會繼續看到,2015 年是美國特定服務註冊量成長的高峰。2016年的表現也相當出色。我認為2017年會表現強勁,但不會達到2015年的水準。我認為,要看到經濟復甦,唯一的方法就是拿出確鑿的證據,證明GDP環境和業績環境比我們今天給出的預期更強勁。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Ryan Meliker with Canaccord Genuity.
我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Ryan Meliker。
Ryan Meliker - MD and Senior REIT Analyst
Ryan Meliker - MD and Senior REIT Analyst
Just wanted to talk, shift gears a little bit. Can we talk a little bit about Airbnb? I know it's a topic that hasn't come up in a few months. It seems like there's been a lot of regulation over the past few months surrounding Airbnb, whether it be New York or San Francisco or across Europe or other cities around the world. I'm wondering if you're seeing -- if that regulation is giving you confidence in your outlook or if that regulation is actually starting to impact your numbers or whether you don't have enough visibility into that yet.
只是想聊聊天,換個話題。我們可以稍微聊聊Airbnb嗎?我知道這個話題已經好幾個月沒被提起過了。在過去幾個月裡,無論是在紐約、舊金山,還是在整個歐洲或世界其他城市,Airbnb 似乎都受到了許多監管。我想知道您是否注意到——這項法規是否讓您對前景充滿信心,或者這項法規是否真的開始影響您的業績,或者您是否還沒有足夠的洞察力來了解這一點。
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
It's a good question, Ryan. I think the answer is that Airbnb and the home-sharing phenomenon has probably been less impactful to the RevPAR numbers that we posted the last number of years than folks might first have imagined. And similarly, is probably less impactful today even with what's happening in the regulatory side in a number of cities and states. Now we will continue to analyze this data as much as we possibly can to understand it, but I think by and large, they are serving a mostly different customer than what we serve at Marriott. They are skewed much more towards leisure. They are skewed much more towards a value-centric customer in the bulk of their business and if their business is under pressure because of a regulatory environment, I'm not sure necessarily that, that customer immediately pops up and shows up in our hotels.
瑞恩,你問得好。我認為答案是,Airbnb 和房屋共享現象對我們過去幾年發布的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 數據的影響可能沒有人們最初想像的那麼大。同樣地,即使在許多城市和州的監管方面發生了一些變化,其影響在今天可能也較小。現在我們將繼續盡可能多地分析這些數據以了解它,但我認為總的來說,他們服務的客戶群與我們在萬豪酒店服務的客戶群有很大不同。它們更偏向休閒娛樂。他們的大部分業務都更傾向於以價值為中心的客戶,如果他們的業務因為監管環境而面臨壓力,我不確定這類客戶是否會立即出現在我們的酒店。
Ryan Meliker - MD and Senior REIT Analyst
Ryan Meliker - MD and Senior REIT Analyst
That makes sense. And then, I guess, as you think about Airbnb and where they might be going, with the regulatory environment limiting their growth, it seems like there might be an avenue for growth as they potentially enter the OTA market with the idea that they've got proprietary inventory, coupled with they already have access to that leisure traveler. Has any -- is that something you guys have given any thought to, particularly as you're negotiating with the OTAs in terms of trying to get better commission rates, given Airbnb's commission rate is so much lower than what you guys typically pay to the Expedias and Pricelines?
這很有道理。然後,我想,當你思考 Airbnb 以及它未來的發展方向時,考慮到監管環境限制了其成長,似乎可以透過進入 OTA 市場來找到成長途徑,因為他們擁有自己的房源,而且已經能夠接觸到休閒旅客。你們有沒有考慮過這個問題?特別是在與線上旅行社 (OTA) 談判,試圖獲得更好的佣金率時,考慮到 Airbnb 的佣金率比你們通常支付給 Expedia 和 Priceline 的佣金率低得多?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Yes, well, I'm not sure that if clearly Airbnb's total rates are all that different when you look at what they charge the host and the guest and combine those 2 as transactional costs in the platform. But let's stand back maybe for a minute from Airbnb specifically. Obviously, we have spent a lot of time analyzing our relationship with intermediaries. We are interested in having those relationships work for us as well as they possibly can, and be as cost-effective as they can. That is about, of course, negotiating our relationships with them regularly when they come up. And fundamentally, it's about making sure we've got a loyalty program that gives us the power to have a relationship with a huge percentage of our transient guests, particularly. And we've got continued great news on the loyalty space with not just 100 million members that we talked about at our Analyst Day, but signing up 1 million a month or more and we feel really good about the way that's going. None of our hotels as far as I know, has a single room on Airbnb. They certainly should not have a room in Airbnb. So we are not, today, looking at that company as an intermediary in a way that's anything similar to the relationships we have with other OTAs around the world.
是的,嗯,我不確定,如果把Airbnb向房東和房客收取的費用加起來當作平台交易成本,那麼Airbnb的總費用是否真的有那麼大的差別。但我們不妨先暫時把目光從 Airbnb 移開。顯然,我們花了很多時間分析我們與中間商的關係。我們希望這些關係能盡可能為我們帶來效益,並盡可能地降低成本。當然,這意味著當這些問題出現時,我們需要定期與他們協商關係。從根本上講,這關乎確保我們擁有一個忠誠度計劃,使我們能夠與很大一部分臨時客人建立聯繫,尤其是那些臨時客人。我們在會員忠誠度領域也持續傳來好消息,不僅擁有我們在分析師日上提到的 1 億會員,而且每月新增註冊用戶達到 100 萬或更多,我們對目前的進展情況感到非常滿意。就我所知,我們旗下的所有飯店都沒有在 Airbnb 上出租單人房。他們絕對不該在Airbnb上租房。所以,今天我們並沒有像對待其他 OTA 那樣,將該公司視為中間商。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Bill Crow with Raymond James.
我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 公司的 Bill Crow。
William Andrew Crow - Analyst
William Andrew Crow - Analyst
Arne, given all the -- what you've already chopped on the integration and what lies ahead, I think you talked about a couple of the things out there for next year. Where does the biggest risk lie?
Arne,考慮到你已經削減了整合工作以及未來的發展方向,我認為你已經談到了明年的一些事情。最大的風險在哪裡?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Yes, so the -- I think we're off to a good start on the integration, but I think we are by no means, declaring victory today. We've got a lot of work ahead of us. I think the team is performing extraordinarily well in getting at that work, and they're incredibly energized by what has been accomplished and what we have to accomplish and what we think we can achieve by accomplishing it. There are plenty of risks around. I think if you identify one, it's going to be around technology and we are -- it takes longer, it costs more than any of us would like, and I don't think that's unique to Marriott or unique to the hotel business. I think, when you look across the corporate landscape, it is what we see in company after company. And we've got to make sure that we are moving as quickly as we possibly can because these technology platforms will really allow us to drive, particularly the kind of revenue lift that we think is available by having 1 reservations platform and 1 loyalty platform and of course, secondarily, also allow us to deliver these technology platforms at lower cost to our owners because we'll be supporting 1 and not 2, and even as we pull those platforms together and do all those things, we want to make sure that we are continuing to innovate and do the kind of new things that our customers expect us to do. So a recent example of that is our investment in PlacePass, which is really an online or virtual concierge, which helps our customers plan for their trips before going. It's a space that we're very excited about, but we want to make sure our technology platforms allow that to be linked to our loyalty sites and our dot-com sites so that we can drive that business even as we do that and other integration work. So long way of saying technology would be probably the thing that we are maybe most, what, frustrated by the cost and time associated with it maybe, most fearful about it, but also most convinced that it will drive upside long-term to the performance and the portfolio.
是的,所以——我認為我們在融合方面開了一個好頭,但我認為我們今天絕不能宣布勝利。我們還有很多工作要做。我認為團隊在完成這項工作方面表現得非常出色,他們對已經取得的成就、我們必須完成的任務以及我們認為完成這些任務可以取得的成就都充滿了熱情。周圍有很多風險。我認為如果要找出一個原因,那一定是與技術有關。我們面臨的問題是——這需要更長的時間,成本也比我們任何人希望的都要高,而且我認為這並非萬豪酒店獨有的問題,也不是酒店業獨有的問題。我認為,縱觀整個企業界,這種情況在一家又一家公司中都存在。我們必須確保以盡可能快的速度推進,因為這些技術平台將真正幫助我們實現我們認為透過一個預訂平台和一個忠誠度平台所能帶來的收入成長。當然,其次,這些技術平台也能讓我們以更低的成本為業主提供這些服務,因為我們只需要支援一個平台而不是兩個。即使在整合這些平台並完成所有這些工作的同時,我們也希望確保我們能夠繼續創新,並做客戶期望我們做的事情。最近的一個例子是我們對 PlacePass 的投資,它實際上是一個線上或虛擬禮賓服務,可以幫助我們的客戶在出發前規劃行程。我們對此領域感到非常興奮,但我們希望確保我們的技術平台能夠將其與我們的會員網站和.com網站連接起來,以便我們能夠在進行此類和其他整合工作的同時推動業務發展。綜上所述,科技可能是我們最感到沮喪、最害怕,但同時也最相信它會在長期內提升業績和投資組合價值的事情。
William Andrew Crow - Analyst
William Andrew Crow - Analyst
That's helpful. And then if as an industry leader, I was wondering if you could give us some comments on a couple of headlines that are out there. The first one is the industry's efforts to lobby Congress regarding expedient price line? The second one is kind of this airline overbooking news and whether you guys have considered whether you need to make changes to your booking patterns or -- to take away the risks of walk-in guests?
那很有幫助。然後,作為行業領袖,我想請您對目前流傳的一些新聞標題發表一些看法。第一件事是該產業為爭取通過短期定價策略而遊說國會?第二個問題是關於航空公司超賣的新聞,你們是否考慮過是否需要改變預訂模式,或-以消除臨時乘客帶來的風險?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Well, those are 2 hot topics. Thank you for that. Let's talk about overbooking first. We -- about -- no, I don't know, 1.5 years ago, 2 years ago, we expanded the cancellation window for our transient travelers from 6:00 p.m. the day of arrival to midnight the day before arrival. And that was a very useful tool to reduce overbooking. We do have in a couple of markets today, a few pilots where we're looking at going to midnight of the day before, so that would be sort of like 48 hours before. And there are a number of reasons we're testing that, but I think that could be helpful on overbooking as well. Obviously, this is -- there's nothing worse for a traveler than to show up at a hotel with a confirmed reservation and not have the room there. And so we're trying -- we measure how many times we have to walk a guest. We obviously, do pay for that first night if they end up someplace else, but it's still not a great experience. And so that's an area where we continue to put some effort in. Obviously, we'd like to be at perfection. We'd like to be full every night without a single room empty and without a single customer walk. Now that's not necessarily something that we will ever achieve, but I think we're making good progress on that. I don't have much to say about industry efforts on the hill about OTAs. I'm not sure I know exactly what the AH&LA is doing there. I know there have been things over the course of the last year or 2 about real transparency. I think that is not so much about what the conduct of the big OTAs has been, but it is conduct of affiliates that pop up and somehow exist under their sites or exist independently. And may not really have the inventory, and so they may be selling rooms to customers who think they've booked a room in one of our hotels or somebody else's hotel, and they show up and actually there's no record of that. And that's probably the thing that we want to be most thoughtful about because even though we have nothing to do with that booking, it reflects poorly on us because the customer thinks they've booked a room in our hotel.
嗯,這兩個都是熱門話題。謝謝。我們先來談談超額預訂的問題。大約——不,我不知道,大概1.5年前,2年前,我們將短期旅客的取消窗口從下午6:00延長至下午6:00。從抵達當日到抵達前一天午夜。那是一個減少超額預訂的非常有效的工具。今天我們在幾個市場開展了一些試點項目,我們正在考慮提前到前一天的午夜進行,也就是提前 48 小時左右。我們進行這項測試的原因有很多,但我認為這對於解決超額預訂問題也可能有所幫助。顯然,對於旅行者來說,最糟糕的事情莫過於預訂了房間卻發現酒店沒有房間。所以我們正在嘗試——我們統計需要帶客人走多少次路。如果他們最終去了別的地方,我們當然要支付第一晚的住宿費,但這仍然不是一次很好的體驗。所以,這是我們持續投入精力的領域。顯然,我們希望達到完美。我們希望每晚都滿房,沒有一間空房,也沒有一位顧客離開。這未必是我們最終能夠實現的,但我認為我們在這方面正在取得良好的進展。對於國會山上有關線上旅行社(OTA)的產業努力,我沒什麼好說的。我不太清楚美國飯店及住宿協會(AH&LA)在那裡具體在做什麼。我知道在過去一兩年裡,確實發生過一些關於真正透明度的事情。我認為這與其說是關於大型線上旅行社的行為,不如說是關於那些突然冒出來,以某種方式存在於他們的網站下或獨立存在的聯盟行銷商的行為。而且可能實際上並沒有庫存,所以他們可能會把房間賣給顧客,顧客以為自己在我們酒店或其他酒店的某個房間訂了房,結果到了之後發現根本沒有預訂記錄。這可能是我們最應該慎重考慮的事情,因為即使我們與該預訂沒有任何關係,但這也會對我們造成負面影響,因為顧客會認為他們在我們飯店預訂了房間。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from David Beckel with Bernstein.
下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的戴維·貝克爾。
Bebe Zhao
Bebe Zhao
This is Bebe for David. I was just wondering, you've been offering exclusive member rates for over -- a little bit over a year now and looking back, have the discounts provided the benefits you expected? Do you plan to continue to offer similar levels of member discounts going forward? Or do you expect to curtail those over time?
這是大衛的貝貝。我只是想問一下,你們提供會員專屬價格已經一年多了,回顧過去,這些折扣是否達到了你們預期的效果?你們計劃未來繼續提供類似等級的會員折扣嗎?或者您預計隨著時間的推移會逐步減少這些限制?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
I think member discounts are here to stay, and the reason I say that is because we are encouraged by what we've seen. And obviously, we want to make sure that through the loyalty program, we have the relationships with customers that is -- that doesn't require them to sit down and do a spreadsheet calculation to figure out whether it's in their interest to be members of our loyalty program. But instead, where they know without having really to even think about it, that if I concentrate my stays with Marriott, I'm going to get great rooms, I'm going to get points for my stay, I'm going to get free Wi-Fi. I'm going to get mobile services and I think the member only rates are a piece of that equation, which again, I think is working and will continue for the foreseeable future.
我認為會員折扣將會長期存在,我這麼說的原因是,我們受到了目前情況的鼓舞。顯然,我們希望透過會員計劃,確保與客戶建立良好的關係——這樣他們就不需要坐下來做電子表格計算,來弄清楚加入我們的會員計劃是否符合他們的利益。但相反,他們甚至不用多想就知道,如果我把入住次數集中在萬豪酒店,我就能住到很棒的房間,就能獲得住宿積分,就能享受免費 Wi-Fi。我打算開通行動服務,我認為會員專屬價格是促成這項決定的因素之一,而且我認為這種模式目前運作良好,並且在可預見的未來仍將繼續有效。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林。
Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst
Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst
I've got 2 quick follow-ups. First, on the net unit growth. What's the breakdown of the pipeline between Legacy-Starwood and Marriott brands? And how has the pipeline and associated process evolved since the acquisition closed?
我還有兩個後續問題。首先,關於淨單位成長。傳統喜達屋品牌和萬豪品牌之間的產品線組成是怎樣的?自收購完成以來,產品線和相關流程發生了哪些變化?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
These are good, good quizzes here, Stephen, at the end. I think that Marriott -- the Legacy-Marriott pipeline is proportionately a bit bigger than the Legacy-Starwood pipeline. So if you think about Marriott and Starwood before closing, Marriott was about twice the size of Starwood, I think, in total rooms. 800,000-ish rooms to 400,000-ish rooms. And I think when you look at the pipeline, we're probably, 65, 35, maybe something like that, which would suggest that the Marriott pipeline is a little bit bigger, which is not really that surprising. Marriott had many more brands playing in the select service place in the United States than Starwood did, and that's obviously where a number of these rooms in the pipeline from deals signed in '15, '16 and currently are there. In terms of the way the process has changed, there are -- there's nothing really revolutionary. I mean, I think Starwood used a similar approach to valuing deals that Marriott did. There were some modest difference in the way the incentives worked for the developers. There are -- which probably intensified the focus on value as opposed to just rooms as we go forward. I think Marriott too has had a bit different approach to territorials maybe, and particularly cross-brand territorials in some deals, but I view most of those changes as fairly minor and as a consequence, we put the team -- the development team was in place globally by the end of calendar '16. They're working extraordinarily well together and I think things are going swimmingly.
史蒂芬,這些都是非常好的測驗,在最後。我認為萬豪酒店集團(原萬豪酒店集團)的業務規模比喜達屋酒店集團的業務規模更大。所以,如果你回顧萬豪和喜達屋在倒閉前的規模,我認為,萬豪的客房總數大約是喜達屋的兩倍。從大約 80 萬間客房減少到大約 40 萬間客房。我認為,從專案儲備來看,我們大概有 65 個、35 個,或類似的數量,這表明萬豪酒店的專案儲備規模更大一些,這並不令人驚訝。萬豪在美國精選服務酒店領域擁有的品牌比喜達屋多得多,顯然,2015 年、2016 年簽署的協議中正在籌建的許多客房以及目前這些客房都位於精選服務酒店。就流程的變化而言,並沒有什麼真正的革命性變化。我的意思是,我認為喜達屋在評估交易價值時採用了與萬豪類似的方法。開發商的激勵機制運作方式存在一些細微差別。確實存在這種情況——這可能促使我們更加重視價值,而不僅僅是房間本身。我認為萬豪酒店集團在區域劃分方面可能也採取了一些不同的方法,尤其是在一些跨品牌區域劃分交易中,但我認為這些變化大多是微不足道的,因此,到 2016 年底,我們組建了團隊——開發團隊已在全球範圍內到位。他們合作得非常出色,我認為一切都很順利。
Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst
Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst
That's helpful. And then one other quick clarification, I think it was on Shaun's earlier question on synergies. As you captured a bit more in the first quarter, maybe than what you expected, are you finding new opportunities? Or is there simply a pull forward of things you'd already identified?
那很有幫助。還有一點需要快速澄清,我想這是關於肖恩之前提出的關於協同效應的問題。第一季你的收益可能比預期要多一些,那麼你是否發現了新的機會?或者,這只是對你已經確定的事物的一種提前推動?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
I would say things that we identified, the best I can describe it, Stephen, is maybe in some respects, happening a little bit sooner than we had expected.
史蒂芬,我只能說,我們發現的一些事情,就我所能描述的那樣,在某些方面,可能比我們預期的要早一些發生。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Jared Shojaian with Wolfe Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。
Jared Shojaian - Research Analyst
Jared Shojaian - Research Analyst
Just to ask the group question a little differently. Do you have the number for total group production in the quarter for all future periods? And then have you seen any change in cancellations or attrition?
我想換個方式問大家這個問題。您能否提供未來所有季度集團總產量的數據?那麼,您是否觀察到取消訂單或客戶流失方面有任何變化?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
The cancellation attrition story is generally quite positive. So there's less cancellation and attrition than would have been the case in prior periods. Group business, all group bookings in Q1 for all future periods was down modestly in revenue compared to the same time last year. However, last year was up massively from the same measure in 2015 and prior years. So while obviously, we'd like to be up in every year over and over again, I don't think that the modest decline in revenue on the books in Q1 for all future periods is that concerning.
整體而言,取消訂單的流失情況相當樂觀。因此,與以往時期相比,取消訂單和人員流失的情況有所減少。團體業務方面,第一季所有未來期間的團體預訂收入與去年同期相比略有下降。然而,去年的數字比 2015 年及以前幾年的同類指標大幅上升。所以,雖然我們當然希望每年都能成長,但我認為第一季帳面上未來所有時期的營收小幅下降並不令人擔憂。
Jared Shojaian - Research Analyst
Jared Shojaian - Research Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. And then, Arne, I think in the past, you used to provide the percentage of your North American hotels that were currently earning IMFs. Do you have that number? And where do you see the next direction for that number? Do you think it will be up or down?
好的,這很有幫助。然後,Arne,我想你以前會提供你北美酒店目前獲得國際貨幣基金組織的百分比。你有那個號碼嗎?那麼,你認為這個數字的下一個發展方向是什麼?你覺得它會上漲還是下跌?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
I've actually got it, Stephen (sic) [Jared], and if we're looking at the percentage in the first quarter, we're looking at 60% in the total portfolio with about 47% in North America. As compared to a year ago, it's very similar worldwide, about 61%. This is on a combined basis, so this is for both companies. And I think, in general, there is a very slight difference between a year ago and this year first quarter, and that's a result of 1 portfolio of limited service hotels that was barely in the money a year ago Q1, and was not in the money in Q1 though to be honest, we expect them to be in the money in IMF this year in '17. So we'd expect it to kind of get back to where it was for the whole company. The only comment I would make where we see it going is that clearly, with international, with the growth in the Asia-Pacific portfolio, which tends not to have owner’s priority, as you might imagine, that is weighing more and more into the percentage of hotels earning incentive fees while in the U.S., when you've got a RevPAR, a midpoint RevPAR of 2%, it's very difficult to hold onto margins or increase them very much relative to earning more incentive fees. So overall, if we continue to see this kind of RevPAR environment, you might actually, year-over-year, see North America's percentage not growing, but international continuing to grow.
我其實已經掌握了,Stephen(原文如此)[Jared],如果我們看一下第一季的百分比,那麼總投資組合中約有 60% 的份額位於北美,其中約 47% 位於北美。與一年前相比,全球情況非常相似,約 61%。這是合併後的數據,所以適用於兩家公司。總的來說,我認為今年第一季與去年同期相比只有非常細微的差別,這是因為有一組有限服務酒店在去年第一季勉強盈利,今年第一季也沒有盈利。不過說實話,我們預計它們在2017年國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的評估中將會獲利。因此,我們預計整個公司的狀況會逐漸恢復到先前的水平。我唯一想說的是,我們看到的發展趨勢是,很明顯,隨著國際市場,尤其是亞太地區投資組合的增長(正如你可能想像的那樣,這往往不是業主優先考慮的因素),酒店賺取獎勵費用的比例越來越高。而在美國,當你的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)處於2%的中位數時,相對於賺取更多獎勵費用,很難維持利潤率或大幅提高利潤率。因此,總的來說,如果我們繼續看到這種 RevPAR 環境,你可能會看到北美地區的佔比實際上不會逐年增長,但國際市場的佔比會繼續增長。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Wes Golladay with RBC Capital Markets.
下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的韋斯‧戈拉迪。
Wesley Keith Golladay - Associate
Wesley Keith Golladay - Associate
With the comment about group space being more limited now, are you seeing opportunity to up mix the group for next year? You -- I guess increasing the standards for more F&B spend on that side. And then on the corporate side, can you give an update of your top 300 customers' demand from that segment? And are you seeing a difference between select service and the full-service hotels?
鑑於目前小組活動空間較為有限,您是否認為明年有機會重新組合小組成員?我猜你是想提高餐飲消費的標準吧。那麼,在企業方面,您能否提供一下您前 300 位客戶在該細分市場的需求?您覺得精選服務飯店和全方位服務飯店有什麼差別嗎?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
You said top 200 customers, what did you say?
你說的是前200名客戶,你是怎麼說的?
Wesley Keith Golladay - Associate
Wesley Keith Golladay - Associate
Top 300, I believe you guys give that statistic every so often.
前300名,我記得你們常常會公佈這個統計數據。
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Top 300, now that's news to me. On the group, generally, yes. I mean, I think the -- we are more focused on food and beverage in ancillary spend because of the volume we've got of group business and I think that will continue to be the case as long as group business on the books remains strong. And I think the top 300 accounts generally are in positive shape. Now we've got a sort of plus 4-ish for Q1 for the top 300 accounts, but remember, we get the benefit of Easter. So March was meaningfully stronger this year than last year for business travel because we didn't have that holiday. And I think that includes the group business as well so -- which is also primarily related to the calendar. But still, net-net, again, it's a bit why we are encouraged on our expectations for the balance of the year.
前300名?這我還是第一次聽到。就團隊而言,總體上是的。我的意思是,我認為——由於我們擁有大量的團體業務,我們在輔助支出方面更加註重食品和飲料,而且我認為只要團體業務保持強勁,這種情況就會繼續下去。我認為排名前 300 的帳戶總體狀況良好。現在,前 300 名帳戶在第一季的成長率約為 +4,但請記住,我們受益於復活節。因此,由於今年三月沒有假期,商務旅行明顯比去年強勁。我認為這其中也包括集團業務,所以——這也主要與日程安排有關。但總的來說,這也正是我們對今年剩餘時間充滿信心的原因之一。
Wesley Keith Golladay - Associate
Wesley Keith Golladay - Associate
Okay, and then between the full-service hotels and select service hotels, we're seeing a lot of supply on the select service, but demand still seems quite strong as well. So I wonder if the business traveler for select service is doing a little bit better than the full service. Can you comment on that?
好的,在全服務酒店和精選服務酒店之間,我們看到精選服務酒店的供應量很大,但需求似乎仍然相當強勁。所以我想知道,選擇精選服務的商務旅客是否比選擇全服務服務的旅客體驗略好一些。您對此有何評論?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
I think they're both actually performing quite well. If you look at the RevPAR numbers that we published by brand, you'll see that the full-service hotels performed extraordinarily well in Q1. I think the select service portfolio was strong though too, and that's -- I think that's a sign that demand generally was strong in the quarter.
我認為他們兩個的表現都相當不錯。如果你查看我們按品牌發布的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 數據,你會發現全服務酒店在第一季表現得異常出色。我認為精選服務組合也表現強勁,我認為這顯示本季整體需求強勁。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Carlo Santarelli with Deutsche Bank.
下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Carlo Santarelli。
Carlo Henry Santarelli - Research Analyst
Carlo Henry Santarelli - Research Analyst
Most of my questions were answered, but if I could just, on the incentive fee front. When you guys think about some of the changes that you've made with the Starwood portfolio, including getting them on your pre-negotiated OTA rate and improving the RevPAR index, is there an opportunity there to see any kind of meaningful push in incentive fees? And what's the time line on when we would start to see some of those thresholds be met?
我的大部分問題都得到了解答,但如果可以的話,我想問一下關於獎勵費用的問題。你們在考慮對喜達屋酒店組合進行的一些改變時,包括讓他們採用預先協商的OTA價格和提高RevPAR指數,這其中是否有機會在激勵費用方面取得任何實質性進展?那麼,我們大概什麼時候才能看到其中一些指標達到呢?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
So I would say a little too soon to talk about a real analysis of changes in exactly what may be going on for the threshold, particularly as we're really just getting going at putting synergies into place and working through all the portfolios. As you did see, our incentive fee forecast for the year, we've clearly moved up nicely relative to where we were in February. And so from that standpoint, as a result of the strong margin work that is going across in the combined portfolio, we actually had strong IMF outperformance in both Asia Pacific and in North America across the portfolios. So kind of great work across legacy portfolios. It's also worth mentioning that they have a much bigger share of incentive fees that are outside the U.S. and Asia Pacific, which obviously, every dollar of RevPAR, you get a certain share of that with no owners priority.
所以我覺得現在談論對門檻變化的真正分析還為時過早,特別是我們才剛開始落實協同效應並處理所有投資組合。正如您所看到的,我們今年的激勵費用預測與二月相比已經明顯上調。因此,從這個角度來看,由於綜合投資組合中強勁的保證金工作,我們在亞太地區和北美地區的投資組合中實際上都取得了遠超國際貨幣基金組織的業績。所以,在各個傳統投資組合方面都取得了不錯的成績。值得一提的是,他們在美國和亞太地區以外還有更大比例的激勵費用,顯然,每1美元的RevPAR(每間可供出租客房收入),你都能獲得一定比例的收益,而業主沒有優先權。
Carlo Henry Santarelli - Research Analyst
Carlo Henry Santarelli - Research Analyst
Great. Leeny, that's helpful. And then if I could, if you guys -- let's just talk about the $880 million to $890 million range. If you're in that range this year, we would assume that you've kind of hit the $200 million number you referenced earlier. If we think about the incremental $50 million, do we kind of layer that in, in 2018? And then assume some form of growth on the core, just core inflation within the SG&A line? Is that kind of how you're shaping it now for 2018?
偉大的。莉妮,這很有幫助。然後,如果可以的話,如果你們——我們來談談 8.8 億美元到 8.9 億美元的範圍吧。如果你今年的收入達到那個水平,我們假設你已經達到了你之前提到的 2 億美元目標。如果我們考慮增加的 5000 萬美元,我們是否應該在 2018 年將其分攤到其他方面?然後假設核心業務有某種形式的成長,也就是銷售、管理及行政費用項下的核心通膨?這就是你們目前對 2018 年的規劃嗎?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Yes. Now, I think that's exactly right. I think we'll obviously be able to talk a bit more as we get further into the year about '18. The biggest variable there is about wind-down costs, but how we work our way through, making sure that for example, we're combining the ledgers on the 2 companies, et cetera, and all of that, we're kind of working our way through. I think as we've described it before, we've really talked about that the $250 million, we would expect to really feel comfortable that it's kind of more in the latter part of 2018 that when you look at it on a quarterly run-rate basis, you see it, but your general approach in terms of inflation with continued savings is right.
是的。現在,我認為這完全正確。我認為隨著今年時間的推移,我們顯然能夠更多地談論2018年的事情。最大的變數在於清算成本,但我們正在逐步推進,確保例如將兩家公司的帳簿合併等等,所有這些,我們都在逐步推進。我認為正如我們之前描述的那樣,我們已經討論過這 2.5 億美元,我們預計在 2018 年下半年才能真正感到安心,因為從季度運行率來看,你會看到這一點,但你關於通貨膨脹和持續儲蓄的總體方法是正確的。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario with Baird.
下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Michael Bellisario。
Michael Joseph Bellisario - VP and Senior Research Analyst
Michael Joseph Bellisario - VP and Senior Research Analyst
A bigger picture capital allocation question for you. Stocks at 15x EBITDA, the market clearly likes buybacks, but when do those buybacks become less attractive, especially as you think about other tuck-in acquisitions or investment opportunities within the portfolio that might have better returns?
這是一個需要從更宏觀的角度來看待的資本配置問題。當股票市盈率達到 15 倍 EBITDA 時,市場顯然喜歡股票回購,但股票回購何時會變得不那麼有吸引力?尤其是在考慮投資組合中其他可能帶來更好回報的補充收購或投資機會時?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Great question. We look at it all the time. Certainly, first and foremost, we want to be investing in our business in value-accretive ways. And whether that is by a contract, by a loan, by a brand acquisition, no matter how we look at it, the first and foremost, we want to grow our business. But the reality is we've got a model that generates far more than we need to invest in our business and we continue to be, as you can tell from our share repurchase to date, we continue to feel great about returning our shareholders in the kind of the balance that we're doing across a combination of dividends and share repurchase.
問得好。我們一直在關注它。當然,首先,我們希望以增值的方式投資我們的業務。無論是透過合約、貸款或品牌收購,無論我們如何看待,首先也是最重要的是,我們希望發展我們的業務。但現實情況是,我們的模式產生的收益遠遠超過我們投資業務所需的收益,而且正如你從我們迄今為止的股票回購情況所看到的,我們仍然對透過股息和股票回購相結合的方式回報股東感到非常滿意。
Michael Joseph Bellisario - VP and Senior Research Analyst
Michael Joseph Bellisario - VP and Senior Research Analyst
So as a follow-up, are you not seeing those other opportunities? Or is it still that buybacks still make sense at 15x earnings?
那麼,作為後續問題,您難道沒有看到其他機會嗎?或者說,在本益比達到 15 倍的情況下,股票回購仍然有意義嗎?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
No, no, no. We're seeing opportunities, but as I was describing, our model, the reality, the $500 million to $700 million that we've described in the need to basically continue to grow our business, that's in the model and we continue to expect to spend that. And to the extent there are other things that come along, we absolutely take a look at them.
不,不,不。我們看到了機遇,但正如我剛才所描述的,我們的模式,現實情況,我們所說的需要 5 億至 7 億美元來繼續發展我們的業務,這都在我們的模式中,我們也將繼續預計投入這筆資金。如果還有其他情況出現,我們一定會認真考慮。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.
我們的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的文斯·西皮爾。
Vince Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst
Vince Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst
I wanted to circle back on April. I think you noted it was running up 2%. I'm curious how much of a headwind Easter was to April, and as you head into the quarter thought...
我想在四月再討論這個問題。我想你有提到它上漲了2%。我很好奇復活節對四月份的影響有多大,以及你進入本季時的想法…
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Vince, make sure you heard the data. Year-to-date, April was 2%.
文斯,務必聽取數據。今年迄今為止,4 月的成長率為 2%。
Vince Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst
Vince Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst
Got it. So I was curious how much of a headwind you thought Easter would be to April.
知道了。所以我很好奇,你認為復活節會對四月的經濟產生多大的負面影響。
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Easter will be a headwind to April, and we don't have final numbers yet for April. It will be a headwind for April, it will be a headwind for Q2. I would think that it's nearly a point positive to Q1 and nearly a point negative to Q2. And please take that as directional because we don't even have final April numbers yet.
復活節將對四月的疫情狀況造成不利影響,我們目前還沒有四月的最終數據。四月會面臨不利因素,第二季也會面臨不利因素。我認為它比 Q1 高出近 1 個百分點,比 Q2 低近 1 個百分點。請記住這只是一個參考值,因為我們甚至還沒有四月的最終數據。
Vince Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst
Vince Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst
Helpful. And then also just thinking about demand and specifically related to the occupancy gains, I think 1Q showed some nice growth. I'm curious within your full year budget, how much you're thinking occupancy will play into it and if you think occupancy will be positive in '17?
很有幫助。此外,從需求角度來看,特別是與入住率成長相關的方面,我認為第一季出現了一些不錯的成長。我很好奇,在您的全年預算中,您認為入住率會佔多大比例?您認為 2017 年的入住率會是正值嗎?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Globally, I would think it will be positive, but I think in North America, much more likely to have RevPAR driven by rate as opposed to occupancy, I think, as the year goes along. Hotels are practically already quite full and of course, it'll depend a little bit quarter-by-quarter based on the holidays, but the contribution should be more rate-driven.
從全球範圍來看,我認為這將是一個積極的信號;但我認為在北美,隨著時間的推移,RevPAR(每間可供出租客房收入)更有可能受到房價而非入住率的影響。酒店實際上已經相當滿了,當然,具體情況會根據假日每個季度略有不同,但貢獻應該更多地取決於房價。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of David Katz with Telsey group.
我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey 集團的 David Katz。
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Research Analyst
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Research Analyst
As we go through the model and we update all of the portfolio brands, are there any updated thoughts about the range of brands? And quite frankly, it seems like a lot, a long laundry list of brands and how sustainable that can be over the very long term?
在我們對模型進行梳理並更新所有投資組合品牌的過程中,對於品牌範圍是否有任何更新的想法?坦白說,這看起來太多了,一長串品牌名單,而且從長遠來看,這種模式的可持續性如何?
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
We are thrilled by the number of brands we have and the range of choice that we can give to our customers. We spent, obviously, time talking about this at the analyst conference. There's no different thinking today than we laid out then. And we can all look at our 30 brands and our 1.2 million hotel rooms and say that's a lot, but it's nothing compared to the range of choice that's offered by the third-party intermediaries, and offering more choice to our customers is a great thing. And as a consequence, you should presume that we will continue with these brands, and that our effort will not be about getting to fewer brands, but instead, getting to emphasize the distinctions between brands, and make sure we are driving the compliance, if you will, or the consistency of product quality and service quality so that the customers are experiencing something which is consistent with what each of those brands stand for.
我們擁有如此多的品牌,能夠為顧客提供如此廣泛的選擇,我們感到非常興奮。很顯然,我們在分析師會議上花了很多時間討論這個問題。今天的想法和我們當時提出的想法並沒有什麼不同。我們可以看看我們旗下的 30 個品牌和 120 萬間飯店客房,然後說這已經很多了,但這與第三方中介機構提供的選擇範圍相比,簡直微不足道。為我們的客戶提供更多選擇是一件好事。因此,您應該認為我們將繼續保留這些品牌,我們的努力重點不是減少品牌數量,而是強調品牌之間的區別,並確保我們推動合規性,或者說產品品質和服務品質的一致性,以便客戶體驗到與每個品牌所代表的理念相符的產品和服務。
Operator
Operator
Our final question in queue today is a follow-up from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.
今天最後一個問題是來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫的後續提問。
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Obviously intuitively, for the third quarter in a row, merger-related costs decreased on a sequential basis. How much anticipated merger-related costs do you have for the balance of this year? And would you expect that to continue to go down on a sequential basis?
顯而易見,與併購相關的成本連續第三季季減。今年剩餘時間內,您預計併購相關的成本是多少?你認為這種情況會繼續逐週下降嗎?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
I think the best, I could say, Joe, right now, is that we have to look at this as we keep moving along and getting through integration. So we don't have a final number for you. I think over $100 million in 2017 is the right expectation. Obviously, we've already had $51 million in Q1 so that would kind of argue that we'll continue to move through the year. But exactly where we end up, whether it's $100 million or a bit more, it's too soon to say.
喬,我認為現在最好的方法就是,我們必須在推進整合的過程中,一邊考慮這個問題,一邊繼續前進。所以我們目前無法提供最終數字。我認為2017年超過1億美元的預期比較合理。顯然,我們第一季已經實現了 5,100 萬美元的收入,這說明我們今年將繼續保持成長勢頭。但最終結果究竟如何,是 1 億美元還是更多一些,現在說還太早。
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
And $100 million that you're talking about would be on a pretax, not post tax basis?
你說的1億美元是指稅前金額,而不是稅後金額嗎?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO and EVP
Yes, that's a pretax basis, right.
是的,那是稅前價格,對吧。
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Arne M. Sorenson - CEO, President and Director
Okay, well, thank you all very much for your participation and your interest in the Marriott story. We'd love to welcome you into our hotels as you travel around the world. Talk to you soon.
好的,非常感謝大家的參與以及對萬豪故事的關注。我們非常歡迎您在環遊世界時入住我們的酒店。回頭再聊。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Marriott International First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your lines.
女士們、先生們,萬豪國際集團2017年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了。