萬豪國際 (MAR) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to today's Marriott International Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Jackie McConagha.

美好的一天，歡迎參加今天的萬豪國際集團 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （接線生指示）我現在會把電話轉給 Jackie McConagha。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Marriott's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President, and Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加萬豪 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Tony Capuano； Leeny Oberg，我們的財務長兼開發執行副總裁；以及我們的投資人關係副總裁 Betsy Dahm。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實，根據聯邦證券法被視為前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在 SEC 文件中所述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致未來的結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。

Unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy, average daily rate and property level revenues reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and all changes refer to year-over-year changes for the comparable period.

除非另有說明，我們的 RevPAR 入住率、平均每日房價和酒店收入反映了可比較酒店全系統範圍內的固定貨幣結果，所有變化均指可比期間的同比變化。

Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

我們今天早些時候發布的評論和新聞稿中的聲明僅在今天生效，並且不會隨著實際事件的進展而更新。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們今天的評論中提到的收益發布和所有非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。

And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

現在我將把電話轉給托尼。

Thank you, Jackie. Thank you all for joining us today. We are pleased with our third quarter results, which reflect continued momentum in our business. Net rooms grew nearly 6% year-over-year and development activity remained strong. Global RevPAR increased 3% in the quarter driven by another quarter of solid rate growth with ADR up 2.5%.

謝謝你，傑基。感謝大家今天加入我們。我們對第三季的業績感到滿意，這反映出我們業務的持續成長勢頭。淨客房量年增近 6%，開發活動依然強勁。在另一個季度穩健的利率成長推動下，本季全球可出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 3%，其中平均房價 (ADR) 成長了 2.5%。

Globally, group was once again the top performing customer segment. Group RevPAR rose 10% year-over-year for the second quarter in a row with robust increases in both room nights and ADR. At the end of September, global group revenues were pacing roughly flat for the fourth quarter, primarily due to negative impact from the election in the US and up 8% for the full year 2024.

在全球範圍內，團體再次成為表現最好的客戶群。集團第二季每間可用客房收入連續年增 10%，間夜數和平均房價均強勁成長。截至 9 月底，全球集團第四季營收基本持平，主要是由於美國大選的負面影響，2024 年全年營收成長 8%。

Given our industry-leading distribution of convention hotels at nearly double the number of rooms of the next closest peer, we are pleased that group strength is continuing into next year. Group revenues for 2025 were pacing up 7% at the end of the quarter on a 3% increase in room nights and a 4% increase in average daily rate. Globally, business transient experienced another quarter of growth with third quarter RevPAR rising 2%. Leisure transient RevPAR was flat to the year ago quarter, while still well above 2019 levels.

鑑於我們行業領先的會議酒店分佈，客房數量幾乎是緊隨其後的同行的兩倍，我們很高興集團的實力將持續到明年。截至本季末，集團 2025 年營收成長 7%，間夜數成長 3%，日均房價成長 4%。在全球範圍內，商業瞬態業務又經歷了一個季度的成長，第三季每間可用房屋收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 2%。休閒瞬態 RevPAR 與去年同期持平，但仍遠高於 2019 年的水準。

If we look at trends by region, RevPAR rose over 2% in the US and Canada, driven by growth in average rate. RevPAR growth at luxury full-service hotels outperformed select service properties and weekdays surpassed weekends, reflecting strength in group and business transient compared to leisure. RevPAR grew 5% internationally, driven by 9% RevPAR increases in Europe, Middle East, and Africa and in Asia Pacific, excluding China.

如果我們看一下各地區的趨勢，在平均利率成長的推動下，美國和加拿大的 RevPAR 成長了 2% 以上。豪華全方位服務酒店的每間可用客房收入增長優於精選服務酒店，工作日超過週末，反映出與休閒相比，團體和商務瞬態酒店的優勢。全球每間可用房收入成長了 5%，其中歐洲、中東、非洲和亞太地區（不包括中國）的每間可用房收入成長了 9%。

EMEA growth was helped by the Paris Olympics and other special events as well as solid demand from US travellers. APAC strength was broad-based across the region and benefited from international guests, especially from Greater China.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區的成長得益於巴黎奧運會和其他特殊活動以及美國遊客的強勁需求。亞太地區的實力基礎廣泛，並受益於國際嘉賓，尤其是來自大中華區的嘉賓。

Cross-border travel on a global basis is now above pre-pandemic levels at just over 20% of total rooms. Greater China RevPAR declined 8% in the third quarter as macroeconomic pressures led to weak domestic leisure demand and restricted pricing power. Severe weather and higher-end guests traveling to other regions also impacted the area. Despite the demand headwinds, our hotels continue to outperform our peers, gaining RevPAR index across Greater China in the quarter.

目前，全球的跨境旅行已超過疫情前的水平，佔客房總數的 20% 多一點。由於宏觀經濟壓力導致國內休閒需求疲軟以及定價能力受到限制，大中華區第三季每間可用房收入下降了8%。惡劣的天氣和前往其他地區的高端客人也對該地區產生了影響。儘管有需求逆風，我們的酒店的表現繼續優於同行，本季大中華區的每間客房收入指數均有所提高。

We also grew RevPAR index on a global basis. Marriott Ongoing, our industry-leading global travel and loyalty program had a record quarter of enrolments with our membership base growing to over 219 million members at the end of September. We co-branded credit cards in 11 countries in CALA as well as numerous collaborations and thousands of Marriott Bond on Moments experiences, including the Taylor Swift Erasure sweep stakes, we are focused on enhancing engagement with our members, both on and off property.

我們也在全球範圍內提高了 RevPAR 指數。 Marriott Ongoing 是我們業界領先的全球旅遊和忠誠度計劃，該計劃的註冊人數創歷史新高，截至 9 月底，我們的會員數量已增至超過 2.19 億。我們在CALA 的11 個國家推出了聯名信用卡，並在Moments 上開展了眾多合作和數以千計的萬豪債券體驗，包括Taylor Swift Erasure 橫掃賭注，我們致力於增強與酒店內和酒店外會員的互動。

Thanks to our recent tie-up with Starbucks, even members with only one hotel stay can now redeem points for a cup of coffee. We're thrilled with our development activity. In the third quarter, we added around 16,000 net rooms, reaching more than 1.67 million rooms at nearly 9,100 properties around the world. Global signing activity has remained strong with more than 95,000 organic rooms signed year-to-date in 2024. Compared to a quarter ago, our pipeline grew 5% to a record 585,000 rooms.

由於我們最近與星巴克合作，即使是只入住過一次飯店的會員現在也可以用積分兌換一杯咖啡。我們對我們的開發活動感到非常興奮。第三季度，我們淨新增約 16,000 間客房，全球近 9,100 家飯店的客房總數超過 167 萬間。全球簽約活動依然強勁，2024 年迄今已簽約超過 95,000 間自然客房。

Our momentum in conversions, including multiunit opportunities continues to reflect owner preference for our brands worldwide. In August, we announced a multiunit conversion deal with (technical difficulty) for 9,000 existing rooms and a few thousand more in the pipeline. This deal expands our portfolio of longer stay accommodations in key global markets, including New York and Dubai. In the third quarter, conversions represented over 30% of room additions and over 50% of signs.

我們在轉型方面的勢頭，包括多單元機會，繼續反映了全球業主對我們品牌的偏好。 8 月，我們宣布了一項針對 9,000 個現有房間和數千個正在籌備中的房間的多單元轉換協議（技術難度）。這項交易擴大了我們在紐約和杜拜等全球主要市場的長期住宿住宿組合。第三季度，轉換率佔新增房間的 30% 以上，佔標誌的 50% 以上。

In October, we announced City Express by Marriott as the brand name of our new transient mid-scale product here in the US and in Canada. With its highly effective operating model, an outstanding value proposition we have already received extensive interest from ours. We expect to have signed agreements and even a few openings over the next few months.

10 月，我們宣布 City Express by Marriott 作為我們在美國和加拿大的新中型臨時產品的品牌名稱。憑藉其高效的營運模式和出色的價值主張，我們已經引起了廣泛的興趣。我們預計將在接下來的幾個月內簽署協議，甚至提供一些空缺職位。

Our progress in the mid-scale space around the world has been outstanding, and we look forward to meaningfully enhancing our presence in this high-growth segment of the market. Our strong 2024 net rooms growth and signings performance is exciting, and I'm proud of our associates for their work in driving preference for our brands among both guests and owners.

我們在全球中型空間領域取得了出色的進展，我們期待有意義地增強我們在這一高成長市場領域的影響力。我們 2024 年強勁的淨客房成長和簽約表現令人興奮，我為我們的員工在推動賓客和業主對我們品牌的偏好方面所做的工作感到自豪。

Marriott Bonvoy has never been stronger, and we look forward to further expanding our presence around the world. Our business momentum is excellent. And as a company that embraces change, we continue to evolve our business to support our global growth. To this end, we have undertaken an enterprise-wide process to enhance our effectiveness and efficiency across the company.

萬豪旅享家從未如此強大，我們期待進一步擴大我們在全球的業務。我們的業務勢頭非常好。作為一家擁抱變革的公司，我們不斷發展業務以支持我們的全球成長。為此，我們採取了企業範圍的流程來提高整個公司的效能和效率。

We want to further empower our teams closest to our markets guests, owners, and franchisees to operate even more nimbly. While this work is not yet complete, we believe these efforts will drive increased profitability and enhanced value.

我們希望進一步增強最接近市場客人、業主和加盟商的團隊的能力，使其營運更加靈活。雖然這項工作尚未完成，但我們相信這些努力將提高獲利能力和價值。

I will now turn the call over to Leeny, who will share more details and then walk through our financial results and updated guidance. Leeny?

我現在將把電話轉給 Leeny，他將分享更多詳細信息，然後介紹我們的財務業績和更新的指導。利尼？

Thank you, Tony. At this point in the process, we expect these efforts to yield $80 million to $90 million of annual pretax general and administrative cost reductions beginning in 2025. In addition, we expect to deliver cost savings to our owners and franchisees. This initiative is anticipated to result in roughly $100 million of charges, primarily in the fourth quarter of 2024.

謝謝你，托尼。在此過程中，我們預計這些努力將從 2025 年開始每年減少 8,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元的稅前一般和管理成本。該舉措預計將產生約 1 億美元的費用，主要是在 2024 年第四季。

The charges will be recorded in restructuring and merger-related charges and in reimbursed expenses. With meaningful growth opportunities around the world across are more than 30 brands, we're confident these efforts will make us even more competitive.

這些費用將記錄在重組和合併相關費用以及報銷費用中。憑藉全球 30 多個品牌的有意義的成長機會，我們相信這些努力將使我們更具競爭力。

Now turning to our third quarter results gross fee revenues rose 7% in the quarter to $1.28 billion. The increase reflects higher global RevPAR, rooms growth and increase in residential branding fees helped by timing and higher co-brand credit card fees. IMF grew 11% to $159 million. Growth in IMF was led by higher fees in the US and Canada as well as strong growth in APAC and CALA partially offset by a $5 million decline in Greater China.

現在來看我們第三季的業績，該季的總費用收入成長了 7%，達到 12.8 億美元。這一成長反映了全球每間可用客房收入的提高、客房的成長以及住宅品牌費用的增加，這得益於時機和更高的聯合品牌信用卡費用。國際貨幣基金組織成長 11%，達到 1.59 億美元。 IMF 的成長主要由美國和加拿大的費用上漲以及亞太地區和 CALA 的強勁成長帶動，但大中華區 500 萬美元的下降部分抵消了這一成長。

G&A in the quarter rose 15%, primarily due to a $19 million operating profit guarantee reserve for a US hotel, which was negotiated in connection with the company's acquisition of Starwood as well as an $11 million litigation reserve.

本季的一般管理費用增加了 15%，主要是由於一家美國飯店為收購喜達屋而談判的 1,900 萬美元營業利潤保證準備金以及 1,100 萬美元的訴訟準備金。

Even with these $31 million of reserves, third quarter adjusted EBITDA grew faster than gross fees, rising 8% to $1.2 billion. Adjusted EPS increased 7% to $2.26. Now let's talk about our outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. Global RevPAR is expected to grow 2% to 3% in the fourth quarter, and we still assume 3% to 4% growth for the full year.

即使有 3,100 萬美元的準備金，第三季調整後 EBITDA 的成長速度仍快於總費用，成長 8% 至 12 億美元。調整後每股收益成長 7%，達到 2.26 美元。現在讓我們談談我們對 2024 年第四季和全年的展望。

In the fourth quarter, RevPAR growth is anticipated to be higher in most international markets than in the US and Canada. Fourth quarter RevPAR growth in the US and Canada is currently expected to be generally in line with the third quarter with strong leisure and BP trends in October, offsetting weakness in November due to tomorrow's election.

第四季度，大多數國際市場的 RevPAR 成長率預計將高於美國和加拿大。目前預計美國和加拿大第四季的 RevPAR 成長將與第三季基本一致，10 月的休閒和 BP 趨勢強勁，抵消了 11 月因明天大選而導致的疲軟。

The election impact on US and Canada RevPAR is forecasted to be around negative 300 basis points in November and negative 100 basis points for the quarter, double that of past election cycles as we have meaningfully lower transient and group room nights on the books for both this week and next. Greater China is still expected to post negative RevPAR growth in the fourth quarter and for the full year as a result of current weak demand and pricing trends in the region.

選舉對美國和加拿大的RevPAR 的影響預計將在11 月下降約300 個基點，在本季度下降100 個基點，是過去選舉週期的兩倍，因為我們在這兩個時期的短暫住宿和團體間夜數大幅減少一周和下週。由於目前該地區的需求和定價趨勢疲軟，預計大中華區第四季和全年每間可用的客房收入仍將出現負成長。

In the fourth quarter, gross fee growth is expected to be in the 4% to 5% range. Compared to our July guidance, fees are expected to be impacted by softer performance at certain hotels under renovation and lower than previously forecasted residential branding fees due to timing. Our owned, leased, and other revenue, net of expenses, could total roughly $95 million.

第四季度，總費用成長預計在 4% 至 5% 範圍內。與我們 7 月的指引相比，費用預計將受到某些正在裝修的酒店業績疲軟的影響，並且由於時間安排而低於之前預測的住宅品牌費用。我們自有、租賃和其他收入（扣除費用）總計約 9,500 萬美元。

For the full year, gross fees are anticipated to grow 6% to 7% to $5.13 billion to $5.15 billion. Unleased and other revenues net of expenses could total around $346 million. We now expect full year G&A expense can rise 4% to 5% year-over-year.

全年總費用預計將成長 6% 至 7%，達到 51.3 億美元至 51.5 億美元。扣除費用後的未租賃收入和其他收入總計約為 3.46 億美元。我們現在預計全年 G&A 費用將年增 4% 至 5%。

Full year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to total $4.93 billion to $4.96 billion, a 6% to 7% increase over 2023. 2024 adjusted EPS is now anticipated to be between $9.19 and $9.27 with a 25% assumed tax rate. We're now forecasting full year investment spending of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion.

目前預計全年調整後 EBITDA 總額為 49.3 億至 49.6 億美元，比 2023 年增長 6% 至 7%。我們目前預測全年投資支出為 11 億至 12 億美元。

As a reminder, this year's spending includes higher than historical investment in technology associated with the multiyear transformation of our property management, reservations and loyalty systems the vast majority of which is expected to be reimbursed over time.

提醒一下，今年的支出包括高於歷史的技術投資，這些投資與我們的物業管理、預訂和忠誠度系統的多年轉型相關，其中絕大多數預計將隨著時間的推移而得到補償。

The rollout of these platforms is slated to begin later next year, and we look forward to the many benefits that should approve from elevating from three major platforms. Our powerful asset-light business model generates a great deal of cash and our philosophy on allocating that capital remains the same. We're committed to our investment-grade ratings and investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value.

這些平台的推出定於明年晚些時候開始，我們期待從三個主要平台升級中獲得的許多好處。我們強大的輕資產商業模式產生了大量現金，我們分配資本的概念保持不變。我們致力於投資級評級並投資於能夠增加股東價值的成長。

Excess capital is returned to shareholders through share repurchases and a modest dividend, which has risen meaningfully over time. We now expect to return approximately $4.4 billion to shareholders for the full year. This factors in the $500 million of required cash for the purchase of the Sheraton brand in Chicago expected to occur later this month.

多餘的資本透過股票回購和適度的股利返還給股東，隨著時間的推移，股利大幅增加。我們現在預計全年將向股東回報約 44 億美元。這包括預計本月稍後購買芝加哥喜來登品牌所需的 5 億美元現金。

As Tony mentioned, we're very pleased with the robust development activity across our global portfolio. This summer, we raised our full year 2024 net room guidance to 6% to 6.5% growth after signing the founder deal. With increased visibility, we now anticipate 2024 routes growth at the top end of this range or around 6.5%. We still expect net rooms to grow at a solid three-year CAGR of 5% to 5.5% from year-end 2022 to year-end 2025.

正如托尼所提到的，我們對全球產品組合中強勁的開發活動感到非常滿意。今年夏天，在簽署創辦人協議後，我們將 2024 年全年淨客房成長指引提高至 6% 至 6.5%。隨著能見度的提高，我們現在預計 2024 年航線成長將達到該範圍的上限，即 6.5% 左右。我們仍然預計，從 2022 年底到 2025 年底，淨房間將以 5% 至 5.5% 的三年複合年增長率穩定成長。

Thank you for your continued interest in Marriott and Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

感謝您對萬豪和托尼的持續關注，我現在很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）Stephen Grambling，摩根士丹利。

I guess a couple of related questions around the efficiencies. At a high level, what was the impetus for taking these actions now and where do you see the biggest areas of opportunity to streamline and then also just how to think about the run rate of SG&A growth perhaps before factoring in these benefits?

我猜想有幾個與效率相關的問題。從較高的層面來看，現在採取這些行動的動力是什麼？ 您認為精簡的最大機會在哪裡？

Thanks, Stephen. Maybe I'll take the first part of your question and then turn it over to Leeny. I think the impetus is -- maybe I'll start at 100,000 feet. One of the company's core values is this notion of always embracing change. And we think right now, we operate from a position of strength. The business has really strong momentum, as Leeny just described.

謝謝，史蒂芬。也許我會回答你問題的第一部分，然後交給 Leeny。我認為動力是——也許我會從 100,000 英尺的高度開始。公司的核心價值之一就是始終擁抱改變的理念。我們認為，現在我們處於優勢地位。正如 Leeny 剛才所描述的那樣，該業務的發展勢頭非常強勁。

And the company is quite different than the last time we looked holistically at the organization. You think about the changes in the company over the last decade. We've more than doubled in size over the last decade. We've entered over 60 new countries now operating in 142 countries. And so it felt like the right time to really look across the enterprise and figure out what adjustments we can make to enhance and improve our efficiency.

這家公司與我們上次全面審視該組織時有很大不同。你想想公司在過去十年所發生的變化。在過去十年中，我們的規模擴大了一倍以上。我們已進入 60 多個新國家/地區，目前在 142 個國家/地區開展業務。因此，現在是真正審視整個企業並找出我們可以做出哪些調整來提高和提高效率的最佳時機。

In terms of run rate, Leeny, you want to take that?

就運行率而言，Leeny，你想接受嗎？

Yes. So thanks, Stephen. I think, first of all, let me talk a little bit about the 80 to 90, and that is really thinking about savings off of our current cost base. So when we think about moving forward, we've talked to you over time about a kind of typical longer-term run rate of inflation plus perhaps a point or so to support above-average growth.

是的。所以謝謝，史蒂芬。我想，首先，讓我談談 80 到 90，這實際上是在考慮在我們目前的成本基礎上節省開支。因此，當我們考慮向前邁進時，我們已經與您討論了一種典型的長期通膨率，以及可能支持高於平均增長的一個點左右。

And from that perspective, I think it's too early for us to give any specifics about next year. We're really just beginning our full loan budget process, but really think about that 80 to 90 as being off of our current run rate.

從這個角度來看，我認為我們現在給出有關明年的任何細節還為時過早。我們確實剛開始完整的貸款預算流程，但真正考慮到 80 到 90 超出了我們目前的運行率。

Got it. And maybe as an unrelated follow-up, the pipeline improved sequentially, and it looks like it's in a good position for next year. I know you don't want to talk about 2025 too much, but are there any major puts and takes to think about rooms growth into next year and the fees per room contribution from that pipeline?

知道了。也許作為一個不相關的後續行動，管道連續改善，看起來明年處於有利位置。我知道您不想過多談論 2025 年，但考慮到明年的客房增長以及該管道中每間客房貢獻的費用，是否有任何重大的調整和調整？

Yes. So in terms of -- we're in the early stages of the 2025 budget process. I think that the visibility that we have so far underpins Leeny's comment about our confidence in the three-year CAGR that we laid out during the Security Analyst Meeting. On the fees per room question, that's obviously something we're digging into. And if you look at fees per room for RevPAR-related fees, pulling out the non-RevPAR as they tend to grow faster.

是的。因此，就我們而言，我們正處於 2025 年預算流程的早期階段。我認為，我們迄今為止所擁有的知名度支撐了 Leeny 對我們在安全分析師會議期間提出的三年複合年增長率的信心的評論。關於每間客房的費用問題，這顯然是我們正在深入研究的問題。如果您查看每間客房的與 RevPAR 相關的費用，請剔除非 RevPAR，因為它們往往成長較快。

Both in '24 and in '25, we see average fees per room growing, which might seem a little counterintuitive given our push into midscale, but I think there are two principal drivers there. Number one, we continue to see really strong momentum in the luxury tier, which drives outsized fees. And as Leeny talked about, we continue to see strong growth in incentive management fees. .

在 24 年和 25 年，我們看到每間客房的平均費用都在增長，考慮到我們向中檔市場的推進，這似乎有點違反直覺，但我認為有兩個主要驅動因素。第一，我們繼續看到奢侈品行業的強勁勢頭，這推動了巨額費用。正如 Leeny 所說，我們繼續看到激勵管理費的強勁增長。 。

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

肖恩凱利，美國銀行。

I just want to start with kind of the fee algorithm here, if we just kind of do a couple of building blocks for everyone. Obviously, RevPAR up 3% to 4% net unit growth coming in on the high side of expectation over [6%]. As we look at the kind of gross fee piece, obviously, it's a bit beneath A plus B.

我只想從這裡的費用演算法開始，如果我們只是為每個人做一些構建塊的話。顯然，RevPAR 淨單位成長 3% 至 4%，高於預期 [6%]。當我們查看總費用時，顯然，它有點低於 A 加 B。

So just could you walk us through or remind us of what's the gap this year? Is that a little bit of dilution from MGM just given those rooms and the fee contribution there? Does that have to do with IMF, just what are a couple of the pieces there? And how do you expect it to more importantly trend kind of longer term?

那麼您能否向我們介紹或提醒我們今年的差距是什麼？考慮到這些房間和費用貢獻，米高梅是否會稀釋一點？這與國際貨幣基金組織有關嗎？更重要的是，您預期它會如何呈現長期趨勢？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Sean. Yes, we've had this conversation a number of times, which is, I think when you look at it quarter-to-quarter, it's very hard to see the overall fee because there are just a typical loneliness that comes with IMF, for example, you heard about the lower year-over-year IMF and IMF rich territory like Greater China, you've obviously got things like renovation impact, which are very important overall to the health of portfolio, and we're really excited about what those renovations will produce.

是的，當然。謝謝，肖恩。是的，我們已經進行過多次這樣的對話，也就是說，我認為當你按季度查看時，很難看到總體費用，因為國際貨幣基金組織帶來了一種典型的孤獨感，對於例如，您聽說過國際貨幣基金組織和國際貨幣基金組織富裕地區（如大中華區）的同比較低，您顯然受到了諸如翻新影響之類的影響，這對投資組合的整體健康狀況非常重要，我們對此感到非常興奮這些翻新工程將會產生。

But when you put that all together, combined it with a little bit of FX, et cetera, quarter-over-quarter, it is absolutely going to be lumpy. We do believe that this algorithm works over time. But then you do have a bit of the ramp-up issue as well as variations in RevPAR that can make it tougher just in one quarter.

但當你把所有這些放在一起，再加上一點點外匯等因素，季度環比地來看，它絕對會變得不穩定。我們確實相信這個演算法會隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。但是，你確實會遇到一些成長問題以及每間可用收入的變化，這可能會在一個季度內變得更加困難。

But again, as we look forward, really pleased with what we see in terms of the rooms that are coming on to the system. As we've talked about before, room signings are very strong this year. When you look at kind of year-over-year where we are and the strength of the conversions coming in the system, we do see that, that equation going forward looks pretty good.

但同樣，當我們展望未來時，我們對系統中的房間所看到的情況感到非常滿意。正如我們之前談到的，今年的房間簽約非常強勁。當您查看我們的逐年情況以及系統中轉換的強度時，我們確實看到，未來的方程式看起來相當不錯。

Great. And maybe just as my quick follow-up, and this is really just a clarification on the earlier question about G&A, just so we have the right base for next year, Leeny, the SG&A this year, obviously includes what the G&A this year, obviously includes the $30 million of kind of onetime reserve and guarantees. Should we back that out and then remove the incremental from that base?

偉大的。也許就像我的快速跟進一樣，這實際上只是對之前有關 G&A 的問題的澄清，這樣我們就有了明年的正確基礎，Leeny，今年的 SG&A，顯然包括今年的 G&A，顯然包括3000萬美元的一次性準備金和擔保。我們是否應該取消這一點，然後從該基礎上刪除增量？

Or is this all working off the kind of stated number, the $10.50 to $10.60 starting point this year?

或者這一切都是按照規定的數字計算的，即今年 10.50 美元到 10.60 美元的起點？

Right. So I think, generally, your philosophy is right, Sean. I want to caveat that, though, we are way too early to be giving specifics about how you should come up with that number. We modestly got to look at all the elements of the different pieces that go into G&A.

正確的。所以我認為，總的來說，你的哲學是正確的，肖恩。不過，我想警告一下，我們現在就給出關於如何得出這個數字的具體細節還為時過早。我們謙虛地審視了 G&A 中不同部分的所有元素。

As you'll probably remember, we've also got normal increases in bad debt that come with the growth of the overall portfolio, et cetera, et cetera. So it's not quite as simple as you're describing. But philosophically, you are right that, that $31 million was not anticipated and not expected in normal run rate G&A. But right now, that 80 to 90 comes right out of this year's run rate. .

您可能還記得，隨著整體投資組合的成長，我們的壞帳也會正常增加，等等。所以事情並不像你描述的那麼簡單。但從哲學上講，你是對的，3100 萬美元是沒有預料到的，也不是正常運行率 G&A 中預期的。但目前，80 到 90 正是今年的運行率。 。

Patrick Scholes, Truist.

派崔克‧斯科爾斯，真理主義者。

Tony, I have some questions for you on China. It's been about a month since the economic stimulus went into play there. Have you seen any uplift or changes from that yet? And then my related question, do you have any initial thoughts about RevPAR growth or decline for China for next year?

東尼，我有一些關於中國的問題想問你。經濟刺激措施在那裡發揮作用已有大約一個月了。您是否看到了任何提升或變化？然後我的相關問題是，您對中國明年的 RevPAR 成長或下降有什麼初步想法嗎？

Certainly, China is a real wild card. I mean, it could be negative 10%. It could be positive 10% this year. I'm curious if you have given your three days of visibility there. Any initial thoughts on expectations for China next year?

當然，中國是一個真正的變數。我的意思是，它可能是負10%。今年可能為正10%。我很好奇你是否在那裡提供了三天的可見度。對明年中國的預期有何初步想法？

Sure. So let me try and remind me if I've missed your few questions embedded in there. On the first one, stimulus. We're watching so closely, most the stimulus so far, really has not been to the direct benefit of the consumer. So we're not seeing any sort of immediate and material impact on performance metrics. The thing that is more interesting to me, not a great deal of stimulus or support for the property sector, which is obviously under quite a bit of duress but despite that lack of stimulus to support the property sector, we talked about this last quarter as well.

當然。因此，如果我錯過了其中嵌入的幾個問題，請讓我嘗試提醒我。第一個，刺激。我們正在密切關注，到目前為止，大多數刺激措施實際上並沒有為消費者帶來直接利益。因此，我們沒有看到對績效指標有任何直接和實質的影響。對我來說更有趣的是，對房地產行業沒有大量的刺激或支持，房地產行業顯然面臨相當大的壓力，但儘管缺乏支持房地產行業的刺激措施，我們在上個季度談到了這一點。

We continue to see really strong both signings and openings volume across Greater China. I think some of that is because we're seeing a real acceleration in our select service brands, which are marginally easier to get done from a capital staff perspective. But the short answer to your question is really not much yet in terms of the impact of stimulus.

我們繼續看到大中華區的簽約量和空缺職位數量都非常強勁。我認為其中部分原因是我們看到我們精選的服務品牌確實在加速發展，從資本人員的角度來看，這些品牌更容易完成。但就刺激措施的影響而言，對你的問題的簡短回答實際上還不夠。

You're absolutely right when we think about visibility expectations about performance in China are really all over the board. And as Leeny mentioned in her prepared remarks, we're early in the process. What I would say to you is right now, as we start to peak into 2025. Absent any more significant stimulus it could be as good as flat going into '25. But again, that's a very early peak into the performance.

當我們考慮到對中國業績的可見度預期確實是全面的時，您是絕對正確的。正如 Leeny 在她準備好的發言中提到的，我們正處於這個過程的早期階段。我現在要對你們說的是，我們開始進入 2025 年達到頂峰。但同樣，這是性能的早期峰值。

The only thing that I would add to that is that we get into the weeds of looking at Q3 and Q4 is that the margin, Greater China RevPAR has been slightly better than we expected a quarter ago as we move through Q3 and as we looked into October, and one of the things that is interesting is we are starting to see a slight pickup in cross-border travel into the Tier 1 cities, kind of classic BT.

我唯一要補充的是，我們進入第三季和第四季的困境是，隨著我們進入第三季並進行調查，大中華區每間可用房收入略好於我們一個季度前的預期十月，有趣的事情之一是，我們開始看到一線城市的跨境旅行略有回升，有點典型的英國電信。

Now again, it's only quite marginal because as you saw, RevPAR was down meaningfully in Q3, and we do expect that to continue. But at the margin, slightly better than we thought.

現在再說一次，這只是相當微不足道的，因為正如您所看到的，RevPAR 在第三季度大幅下降，我們確實預計這種情況會持續下去。但在邊際上，比我們想像的好一些。

Richard Clarke, Bernstein.

理查克拉克，伯恩斯坦。

I just want to start on the IMF, up 11% without sort of meaningful inflection on RevPAR. So just to make sure, and particularly on the US, how we can square a good IMF quarter with having to put in an operating reserve. Is that just on one hotel? And maybe any color on why you're needing to do that on that one hotel.

我只想從 IMF 開始，成長了 11%，但 RevPAR 沒有出現任何有意義的變化。因此，只是為了確保，特別是在美國，我們如何才能在國際貨幣基金組織季度表現良好的同時必須投入營運準備金。是只在一家飯店嗎？也許有任何顏色可以解釋為什麼你需要在那家旅館這樣做。

Yes. The operating profit guarantee has nothing to do with -- when you look at IMF in Q3, it was the US and Canada that was the outperformer, kind of a couple of different reasons. There was one element that was related to some insurance payments made from prior hurricanes, but also very good strong performance on the part of our large city managed hotels, which helped a bit. And then obviously, you see in APAC as well.

是的。營業利潤保證與第三季的國際貨幣基金組織無關，美國和加拿大表現優異，有幾個不同的原因。其中一個因素與先前颶風支付的一些保險費用有關，但我們大城市管理的飯店也表現出色，這也起到了一定的幫助。顯然，亞太地區也是如此。

We have good growth in our Asia Pacific outside of China IMF. Just to give you kind of a little bit of a sense overall, 22% of our hotels in the US and Canada that are managed, paid an incentive fee in Q3. That's the same percentage as a quarter ago. So think of that as fairly consistent. And then outside the US, also still quite strong.

除中國國際貨幣基金組織外，我們在亞太地區也有良好的成長。總體而言，我們在美國和加拿大管理的酒店中，有 22% 在第三季支付了獎勵費。這與一個季度前的百分比相同。所以認為這是相當一致的。然後在美國以外，也仍然相當強勁。

I think Greater China was the one change where a little bit lower as a result of their continued weakness in RevPAR. As we look at Q4, that's where I think you see, when you look at the fee guidance that we gave, you actually see a little bit of this reverse from a standpoint that several of the hotels undergoing renovation will mean that we expect IMF to be a little bit weaker than a quarter ago as a result of that even though RevPAR is largely the same in US and Canada.

我認為大中華區是唯一一個變化，由於每間可用房收入持續疲軟，其價格略有下降。當我們看第四季度時，我認為您會看到，當您查看我們提供的費用指導時，您實際上會看到一些相反的情況，即幾家正在進行翻修的酒店意味著我們預計國際貨幣基金組織因此，儘管美國和加拿大的 RevPAR 基本上相同，但仍比季度前略弱。

Okay. Maybe just a quick follow-up. When you talk about cost savings to franchisees and owners, are you talking about them delivering them some operating cost savings? Or are you talking about dropping any of your fees do you charge to your franchisees and owners?

好的。也許只是快速跟進。當您談論為特許經營商和業主節省成本時，您是在談論他們為他們帶來一些營運成本節省嗎？或者您正在談論取消向特許經營商和所有者收取的任何費用？

Yes. So we're looking at efficiencies and savings that we think will have clear benefits to the owners. We're looking at every facet of our engagement with them, and we expect to have some tangible saving opportunities identified for them in the very near future.

是的。因此，我們正在考慮提高效率和節省成本，我們認為這將為業主帶來明顯的好處。我們正在考慮與他們合作的各個方面，並希望在不久的將來為他們找到一些實際的節省機會。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

I wonder if you could tell us a little bit about kind of key money trends in terms of your new unit growth.

我想知道您是否可以告訴我們一些關於新單位成長的關鍵資金趨勢。

Yes. Sure, Robin. Yes. I would say more of the same. We've talked about this for several quarters from a standpoint that perhaps over a number of years. We've seen a bit more key money across more tiers. But I think more importantly, when you look about the percentage of fuels using key money that still is about the same at about 1/3 of deals and when we think about the amount of key money per deal, also quite similar.

是的。當然，羅賓。是的。我想說更多同樣的事情。我們已經從一個可能多年的角度討論了這個問題幾個季度。我們已經看到更多層級的關鍵資金增加。但我認為更重要的是，當你考慮使用禮金的燃料百分比時，大約 1/3 的交易仍然大致相同，當我們考慮每筆交易的禮金金額時，也非常相似。

So we are seeing trends that would mean you need to think about kind of meaningful increases in that element of our investment profile.

因此，我們看到的趨勢意味著您需要考慮我們投資組合中該要素的有意義的增加。

Maybe the only thing I would add Rob, and we talked about this last quarter, as Leeny points out, the overall percentage of deals where we're using key money hasn't changed really at all. We are seeing selectively key money being used in a broader section of quality tiers than maybe we have in the past.

也許我要補充的唯一一件事是，羅布，我們在上個季度討論過這一點，正如 Leeny 指出的那樣，我們使用關鍵資金的交易的總體百分比並沒有真正改變。我們看到有選擇性的關鍵資金被用於比過去更廣泛的品質等級部分。

Okay. Great. And then if I could fit in a follow-up. I guess maybe sort of just two housekeeping things. One is you mentioned that IMF included some hurricane payments that were kind of due to hurricanes in prior periods. I don't know if you could just quantify that so we can think about next year comping that, what would be not recurring?

好的。偉大的。然後我是否可以跟進。我想也許只是兩件家事。一是您提到國際貨幣基金組織納入了一些颶風付款，這些付款是由於前期颶風造成的。我不知道你是否可以量化這一點，以便我們可以考慮明年進行比較，什麼不會重複出現？

And then I don't know if there are any other that (technical difficulty) guarantee, you mentioned it seems like it was pretty long dated if it goes back to -- prior to the acquisition. Is there anything else like that, that sort of still left from other Starwood guarantees like that, that we might see in future periods.

然後我不知道是否還有其他（技術難度）保證，你提到如果追溯到收購之前，它似乎已經過時很久了。還有其他類似的事情嗎？

Sure. No, the business interruption immaterial, the way too small (technical difficulty), it's in the laundry list of things that provide an outperformance in the US and Canada. So really nothing that you would need to adjust out. We -- again, as you always know, quarter-to-quarter, you can have kind of variations on exactly what you're expecting to earn from hotels. So really no numbers that would be meaningful at all.

當然。不，業務中斷無關緊要，只是規模太小（技術難度），它在美國和加拿大表現出色的一系列因素中。所以實際上沒有什麼需要調整的。我們再次強調，正如您所知，每個季度您期望從酒店賺取的收入可能會有所不同。所以實際上沒有任何數字是有意義的。

Yes, you're absolutely right. This was an unusual operating profit guarantee that was part of the settlement that we did in the acquisition of Starwood with an owner and meaningfully longer than a typical operating profit guarantee is for us. It was actually a total of a $70 million operating profit guarantee.

是的，你說得完全正確。這是一項不尋常的營業利潤保證，是我們在收購喜達屋時與所有者達成的和解協議的一部分，並且比我們的典型營業利潤保證要長得多。這實際上是總計7000萬美元的營業利潤保證。

This now takes us up to the MAX exposure that we have on that guarantee and really, to your point, reflected the fact that we had a number of years and coin to work through to have a view as to whether we would need to actually fund under that guarantee. So once we came out of COVID and could look forward over a number of years, we made the determination that we needed to take that reserve but that is it.

現在，這使我們達到了對該擔保的最大敞口，並且實際上，就您的觀點而言，反映了這樣一個事實：我們有多年的時間和硬幣來研究我們是否需要實際提供資金在此保證下。因此，一旦我們擺脫了新冠疫情並可以展望未來幾年，我們就決定需要保留該儲備金，但僅此而已。

And to your point, no, we do not have a remaining operating profit guarantees with that kind of length and size of exposure.

就你的觀點而言，不，我們沒有這樣的風險敞口長度和規模的剩餘營業利潤保證。

Joe Greff, JPMorgan.

喬‧格雷夫，摩根大通。

My first question goes back to your initiatives to improve efficiencies and take out some G&A costs. I know the $80 million to $90 million begins to yield the beginning of 2025. And I know it's early in the process. What would be a good outcome in terms of what you would expect to achieve next year? And then as you head into 2026, would you still be expecting to be run rating $80 million to $90 million? Or would you, at that point, expect to achieve all of it.

我的第一個問題回到了你們提高效率和削減一些一般管理費用的舉措。我知道 8000 萬到 9000 萬美元將在 2025 年初開始產生效益。 而且我知道現在還處於這個過程的早期階段。就您明年期望實現的目標而言，好的結果是什麼？然後，當您進入 2026 年時，您是否仍期望評級為 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元？或者說，到那時你會期望實現這一切嗎？

Yes. The $80 million to $90 million, just to be clear, we do believe that is in '25. So that is beginning in '25 off of this year's cost base. Now we obviously have all the normal other parts that you have to look in your budget for G&A, and that's the part that we're in the process of Joe. So I think at this point, we're really pointing to a sustainable $80 million to $90 million in annual G&A cost savings.

是的。需要明確的是，8000 萬到 9000 萬美元，我們確實相信那是在 25 年。因此，這是從今年的成本基礎上的 25 年開始的。現在，我們顯然擁有所有正常的其他部分，您必須在 G&A 預算中查看這些部分，這就是我們正在處理的部分，Joe。所以我認為在這一點上，我們確實希望每年可以節省 8,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元的管理費用。

Great. And again, maybe it falls under the bucket of it's still kind of early here. But when you think about 2025 all in investment spending. Do you look at $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion is a reasonable expectation? Or does it come down because there seems to be some -- at least some onetime items this year that you wouldn't expect to recur next year?

偉大的。再說一遍，也許它屬於現在還為時過早的範疇。但當你想到 2025 年時，所有的投資支出都會發生。您認為 11 億至 12 億美元是合理的預期嗎？或者它下降是因為似乎有一些——至少是今年一些一次性的項目，你預計明年不會再出現？

Yes. No -- and last, of course, as always, something comes up that that we're not currently planning for, I totally agree with you that you would expect both $200 million that is included in that number related to the purchase of Chicago. Grand Sheridan as well as a $50 million land purchase that we made in Q3 for the Weston Peachtree, which really was to help us remove the lack of clarity around a ground lease that made it difficult for any owner to know with the long-term kind of cash stream from that asset could be.

是的。不——最後，當然，一如既往，會出現一些我們目前沒有計劃的事情，我完全同意你的觀點，你會期望與購買芝加哥相關的數字中包含 2 億美元。 Grand Sheridan 以及我們在第三季度為 Weston Peachtree 購買的 5,000 萬美元土地，這確實是為了幫助我們消除土地租賃的不明確性，這種租賃使任何業主都很難了解長期租賃類型該資產的現金流可能是。

So that -- with that cleared up, that's terrific. And that really is $250 million that, to your point, is not expected to be ongoing.

所以——把這個問題弄清楚了，那就太棒了。就您而言，這確實是 2.5 億美元，預計不會持續下去。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

布蘭特·蒙圖爾，巴克萊銀行。

Apologies if this was covered and I missed it. But Tony, could you talk about the special corporate negotiated rate talks that are going on and how that's sort of coming together for next year?

如果這被覆蓋而我錯過了，我深表歉意。但是托尼，您能談談正在進行的特別企業協議利率談判以及明年的談判進展如何嗎？

Of course. Yes, we haven't talked about that yet. And again, we're relatively early in the process. But our takeaway from that early set of discussions, we are targeting a mid-single-digit increase for 2025. And I think the teams are feeling pretty good about that target.

當然。是的，我們還沒有討論過這件事。再說一次，我們在這個過程中還處於相對較早的階段。但從早期的一系列討論中我們得出的結論是，我們的目標是到 2025 年實現中個位數的成長。

Just to add to that is that was definitely something we noticed was helpful this quarter with the continued strengthening of (technical difficulty) that, that ADR continues to be useful.

補充一點，我們注意到本季確實有幫助，隨著（技術難度）的不斷加強，ADR 仍然有用。

Yes. Okay. And then a follow-up, more of a bigger picture question for anyone. But I know developers are long-term planners and thinkers, but this said and the sort of uncertainty around interest rate movements here. Just curious if it's weighing at all on developers' mindset in terms of how they're forming their capital planning for next year?

是的。好的。然後是一個後續問題，對任何人來說都是一個更大的問題。但我知道開發商是長期規劃者和思考者，但這就是利率變動的不確定性。只是好奇這是否會影響開發商如何制定明年的資本規劃？

Yes, Budd. And the bulk would be, of course. I mean they look at every variable in the equation that impacts their returns. I think they are encouraged that the Fed did a 50 bp drop. They are obviously on pins and needles waiting to see what action the Fed takes through the balance of this year.

是的，巴德。當然，大部分都是。我的意思是，他們會考慮方程中影響其回報的每個變數。我認為他們對聯準會降息 50 個基點感到鼓舞。他們顯然正焦急地等待著聯準會在今年餘下時間採取什麼行動。

But I would say to you, availability of debt and an elevated construction cost environment are bigger impediments to driving the sort of construction start volume, and we saw prepandemic than the current level of interest rates. Sure.

但我想對你們說的是，債務的可用性和建築成本上升的環境是推動建築開工量的更大障礙，而且我們看到的是大流行前的利率水平比目前的利率水平。當然。

David Katz, Jefferies.

大衛‧卡茨，傑弗里斯。

So I wanted to ask about leisure, broadly speaking. And just taking in all the information so far through earnings season, can you talk about sort of areas of strength versus weakness and what the range of levels is that you're seeing, right? And just how broadly that is? Or is it -- should we call it flattish just straight across the board which seems unlike it?

所以我想問廣義的休閒問題。透過財報季到目前為止的所有信息，您能談談優勢領域與劣勢領域以及您所看到的水平範圍嗎？這到底有多廣？或者是——我們應該直接稱其為平坦的，而這看起來並不像它嗎？

Sure. So as you heard us say earlier that Q3 leisure transact was roughly flat to last year, although well for 2019 levels. I think from a chain scale perspective, basically flat or slightly growing with luxury and premium, while really select service is where you saw a slight decline.

當然。正如您之前聽到我們所說，第三季的休閒交易與去年基本持平，儘管 2019 年的水平良好。我認為從連鎖規模的角度來看，奢侈品和高端服務基本上持平或略有成長，而真正的精選服務則略有下降。

Understood. And my second question or my follow-up is really around net unit growth much longer term. I think it's fair to say the past few years or post-COVID, anyway, we've seen kind of a broader range of the kinds of base, (technical difficulty) being case in point or Bonvoy with MGM that have been added to the NUG process. Tony, how do you see NUG evolving if we look out two. three years? Does that kind of broadening of what NUG is defined as does that continue to grow over time?

明白了。我的第二個問題或後續問題實際上是圍繞著更長期的淨單位成長。我認為公平地說，過去幾年或新冠疫情之後，我們已經看到了更廣泛的基礎類型（技術難度），例如 Bonvoy 與 MGM 已添加到NUG 過程。 Tony，如果我們關注兩個，您如何看待 NUG 的發展。三年？ NUG 的定義範圍是否會隨著時間的推移而不斷擴大？

Yes. So as we said a quarter ago, you should reasonably expect the vast majority of our new units to be the sort of traditional management agreements and franchise agreements that you've seen when you hear Leeny talk about our three-year CAGR 5% to 5.5% growth in NUG.

是的。因此，正如我們一個季度前所說，您應該合理地預期我們的絕大多數新單位都是傳統的管理協議和特許經營協議，就像您聽到Leeny 談論我們的三年複合年增長率5%至5.5 時所看到的NUG 成長百分比。

That is really predicated on that traditional model of management agreements and franchise agrees. What I will say is and maybe I'll pull MGM and Sander apart because they're a bit unique. Everybody seems to lump those together, Sounder is really structured like a very traditional franchise agreement. MGM is different in that we brought together two powerhouse families of brands and to pull those two brands together, necessitated some real creativity in terms of structuring from both sides.

這實際上是基於管理協議和特許經營協議的傳統模式。我要說的是，也許我會把米高梅和桑德分開，因為他們有點獨特。每個人似乎都把這些混為一談，Sounder 的結構實際上就像一個非常傳統的特許經營協議。米高梅的不同之處在於，我們將兩個強大的品牌家族聚集在一起，並將這兩個品牌整合在一起，需要雙方在結構上發揮一些真正的創造力。

But I will say in my prepared remarks, I talked about the really extraordinary momentum that Bonvoy has and so certainly, we'll continue to get inquiries from prospective partners that want to take advantage of that momentum and we'll apply the same rigor and the same lens that we always have in evaluating those opportunities.

但我要說的是，在我準備好的發言中，我談到了Bonvoy 所擁有的真正非凡的勢頭，因此，我們肯定會繼續收到想要利用這一勢頭的潛在合作夥伴的詢問，我們將採取同樣的嚴格和我們在評估這些機會時始終採用同樣的視角。

Dan Politzer, Wells Fargo.

丹‧波利策，富國銀行。

I wanted to just double back on the leisure commentary. I mean, obviously, it's been pretty choppy right now and certainly for the fourth quarter. But as you think about 2025 and comparing to this kind of environment we've been in. Is there any expectation or line of sight to may be growing next year as things may be cool down a bit?

我想再次關注休閒評論。我的意思是，顯然，現在情況相當不穩定，第四季也是如此。但當你想到 2025 年，並​​與我們所處的這種環境進行比較時，是否有任何預期或視線認為明年可能會增長，因為事情可能會降溫一點？

I'll say a couple of things. I think the reality is we're in the middle of our budget process, which I'm happy to say is very granular and gets down to the property level and exactly what's going on in every environment. I think the broadest comment I would make is we see 2025 barring some major economic change to be more of the same.

我會說幾件事。我認為現實是我們正處於預算流程的中間，我很高興地說預算流程非常細化，並深入到財產層面以及每個環境中正在發生的情況。我認為我要發表的最廣泛的評論是，除非出現一些重大經濟變化，否則 2025 年情況將大致相同。

So if you think about kind of our back half of our RevPAR this year and how we're looking at 2025, I think you probably see some quite similar trends where when you think BT continues on, group still very strong. We've talked about these upper single digits group pace for next year. And that would then mean that leisure we'd be up slightly, but also probably not taking a big jump up.

因此，如果您考慮我們今年下半年的 RevPAR 以及我們對 2025 年的看法，我認為您可能會看到一些非常相似的趨勢，當您認為 BT 繼續發展時，集團仍然非常強勁。我們已經討論了明年這些較高個位數的集團速度。這意味著我們的休閒時間會略有增加，但也可能不會大幅增加。

And again, we will be getting much more into that in February when we've gone through the budget. But I would say '25 looks a whole lot like the back half of '24 from where we sit today.

再說一遍，我們將在二月審議預算後對此進行更多討論。但我想說，從我們今天坐的位置來看，25 年看起來很像 24 年的後半段。

Great. That's helpful. And then just for my follow-up, it's more of a housekeeping. The non-RevPAR fees, you mentioned something along the lines of timing in the quarter. Is there -- I don't know if I missed it, but maybe if you can give us that actual non-RevPAR fees for the third quarter. And are we still on pace for that 9% to 10% growth in that line item for this year?

偉大的。這很有幫助。對我的後續行動來說，這更多的是家事。對於非 RevPAR 費用，您提到了本季的時間表。是否有——我不知道我是否錯過了，但也許您可以向我們提供第三季的實際非 RevPAR 費用。今年該訂單項目的成長速度是否仍維持在 9% 至 10% 的水平？

Yes. So we are -- the three biggest items there are obviously the credit cards, residential and timeshare. And I think the 1 that really jumps out is what was going on with the residential branding fees, which, as you know, can be quite lumpy because if a whole development sells out. So as an example, in Q3 '24, that was $18 million, while a year ago in Q3, it was $7 million.

是的。所以我們——三個最大的項目顯然是信用卡、住宅和分時度假。我認為真正引人注目的是住宅品牌費用，正如你所知，這可能會相當不穩定，因為如果整個開發項目售罄。舉個例子，24 年第三季度，這一數字為 1800 萬美元，而一年前的第三季度，這一數字為 700 萬美元。

So it more than doubled in one quarter. Credit card fees was the more stereotypical growth and timeshare tends to be fairly flattish given the structure of that contract. So you put it all together, but yes, for the full year, we continue to see the top end of single digits, 9% to 10% is the right growth rate. .

所以一個季度內就增加了一倍以上。考慮到該合約的結構，信用卡費用的成長更為典型，而分時度假往往相當平淡。所以你把它們放在一起，但是，是的，對於全年來說，我們繼續看到個位數的上限，9% 到 10% 是正確的成長率。 。

Michael Bellisario, Baird.

邁克爾貝利薩裡奧，貝爾德。

I just want to go back to one more on cost savings and then zoom out on net unit growth. But any impact to franchise sales or maybe even a reallocation to this team to support a faster organic net unit growth outlook and then more broadly, zooming out on net unit growth, maybe just an update just on the competitive landscape of where you're winning or not winning deals today.

我只想再回到一個關於成本節約的問題，然後縮小淨單位成長的範圍。但是，對特許經營銷售的任何影響，或甚至可能是對該團隊的重新分配，以支持更快的有機淨單位增長前景，然後更廣泛地縮小淨單位增長，也許只是你獲勝的競爭格局的更新或今天沒有贏得交易。

Yes. So I think what I would say, Michael, the growing our market share is obviously a top priority for us, and it will continue to be. the growth potential we see across our family of brands, including the more recent entrants in mid-scale is really strong, and we think we have a really competitive offering to the franchise community.

是的。所以我想我想說的是，邁克爾，增加我們的市場份額顯然是我們的首要任務，而且將繼續如此。我們看到我們的品牌家族（包括最近進入的中型品牌）的成長潛力非常強勁，我們認為我們為特許經營社群提供了真正有競爭力的產品。

We continue to be optimistic about those growth prospects as you heard Leeny described, and we certainly think this initiative will add incremental support to that growth. And then I'm sorry, the second question, Michael.

正如您聽到 Leeny 所描述的那樣，我們仍然對這些成長前景持樂觀態度，我們當然認為這一舉措將為這種成長提供增量支持。然後我很抱歉，第二個問題，麥可。

Just an update on the broader landscape for conversions and signings where you're winning or not winning deals today?

只是更新一下您今天是否贏得交易的更廣泛的轉換和簽約情況？

Yes. I mean I think in Leeny's prepared remarks, she talked a little bit about that. The momentum that we continue to see in conversions is really encouraging, both single asset and multi-unit. And maybe I think I said this a quarter or two ago, but I'll reiterate it. I think it's a combination of factors. I think we have, as strong portfolio of conversion-friendly brands as we've had in my 30 years with the company.

是的。我的意思是，我認為在 Leeny 準備好的發言中，她談到了這一點。我們繼續看到的轉換勢頭確實令人鼓舞，無論是單一資產還是多單位。也許我想我在一兩個季度前說過這句話，但我會重申。我認為這是多種因素綜合作用的結果。我認為我們擁有與我在公司工作 30 年來所擁有的一樣強大的轉化友好型品牌組合。

I think the teams are much more focused on removing friction from the conversion process. And we've got Leeny has dedicated resources in each of the continents that are singularly focused on driving conversion volume. And so we expect that conversion activity to continue at pace.

我認為團隊更注重消除轉換過程中的摩擦。 Leeny 在各大洲都有專門的資源，專門致力於提高轉換量。因此，我們預計轉換活動將繼續快速進行。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth)，Evercore ISI。

You answered parts of this in previous questions, but I just wanted to hit you with a high-level macro question. If you look at demand growth in the US this year, room night growth compared to headline GDP growth. Has there been anything surprising about the way that has played out. And as you think about 2025, which segments do you think could be better in sync with headline GDP growth, whatever that ends up being.

您在之前的問題中回答了部分問題，但我只是想向您提出一個高級宏觀問題。如果你看看今年美國的需求成長，你會發現間夜成長與整體 GDP 成長相比。事情的進展有什麼令人驚訝的嗎？當你思考 2025 年時，你認為哪些部分可以更好地與整體 GDP 成長同步，無論最終結果為何。

So -- and I'll have Tony jump in. I do think part of what we saw in '24 is continued normalization in the US and Canada. So for example, in leisure, you've definitely got in Q3. Year-to-date, actually, the leisure guidance are flat to a year ago in the US and Canada. Overall RevPAR is also year-to-date roughly flat in the US in leisure. And that, I really ascribed to quite a bit of normalization.

所以——我會讓托尼插話。 我確實認為我們在 24 年看到的部分原因是美國和加拿大的持續正常化。例如，在休閒方面，你肯定已經進入了第三季。實際上，今年迄今為止，美國和加拿大的休閒指導與一年前持平。今年迄今為止，美國休閒領域的整體 RevPAR 也大致持平。我確實將其歸因於相當多的正常化。

As you think about people kind of coming out of COVID and frankly, wanting to go anywhere, anytime, kind of no matter what to make sure that they were able to get their trial done. And I think that is normalizing a bit. While what you also saw was a business transient group kind of filling in to make up for where that slowdown was happening.

當你想到剛從新冠疫情中恢復過來的人們，坦白說，他們想要隨時隨地、無論發生什麼，以確保他們能夠完成試驗。我認為這有點正常化了。同時你也看到了一個業務臨時群體的填補，以彌補正在發生的放緩。

So you actually look overall, and overall, in Q3, you saw room nights for year-to-date in the US and Canada, up 1% and ADR up 2%. So in that regard, I think you continue to see a healthy series of demand. We believe that going forward, you're going to continue to see travel be a priority for our customers, whether it is group, BT, or leisure.

因此，實際上從整體來看，總體而言，在第三季度，美國和加拿大今年迄今的間夜數增加了 1%，平均房價成長了 2%。因此，在這方面，我認為您將繼續看到一系列健康的需求。我們相信，展望未來，您將繼續看到旅行成為我們客戶的首要任務，無論是團體旅行、英國電信還是休閒旅行。

And of course, it has a relationship to the macroeconomic environment that's been proven in our industry cycle in and cycle out. But we would expect to continue to see with a strong economy, strong demand for our business.

當然，這與宏觀經濟環境有關係，這一點在我們的產業週期循環中得到了證明。但我們預計，隨著經濟強勁，我們的業務需求將持續強勁。

And Duane, part of your question was around anything that's been a surprise. I don't know that I would characterize it as a surprise. But the continued strength quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year of group is a really encouraging sign. I mean we spent all of us spend a lot of time with both corporate and association meeting planners and the appetite they have for group meeting just continues to be at the high end of our expectations, and it's really encouraging.

杜安，你的問題的一部分是圍繞著任何令人驚訝的事情。我不知道我會把它描述為驚喜。但該集團季度環比和同比的持續增長確實是一個令人鼓舞的跡象。我的意思是，我們所有人都花了很多時間與公司和協會會議策劃者打交道，他們對團體會議的興趣仍然處於我們期望的高端，這確實令人鼓舞。

And as I mentioned in my open particularly given the composition of our portfolio and our significant lead in our group hotel portfolio, that's a really terrific trend for our business.

正如我在公開中提到的，特別是考慮到我們的投資組合的組成以及我們在集團酒店投資組合中的顯著領先地位，這對我們的業務來說確實是一個了不起的趨勢。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

斯梅德斯·羅斯，花旗銀行。

You mentioned 2025, maybe the sort of looking reports kind of similar to the back half of '24, I think, which is kind of generally what we're hearing kind of from other companies and industry prognosticators. And I'm just wondering in that base of the scenario, is there just anything we should keep in mind relative to capital return expectations we should just think about?

你提到 2025 年，我認為這種看起來可能類似於 24 年後半段的報告，這通常是我們從其他公司和產業預測者那裡聽到的。我只是想知道在這種情況下，相對於我們應該考慮的資本回報預期，我們是否應該牢記什麼？

I know you had some property purchases this year you mentioned, which I guess won't repeat next year, but anything we should just bear in mind when you think about forecasting that?

我知道你提到的今年你買了一些房產，我想明年不會再重複，但是當你考慮預測這一點時，我們應該記住什麼？

Yes. No, I think our -- as I was saying in my comments, our philosophy is exactly the same, which is -- we are a growth company. We are all about investing in valuable growth for the enterprise and continuing to take market share around the world. We are blessed with a business model that produces more cash than we need to provide that growth.

是的。不，我認為我們的——正如我在評論中所說的，我們的理念是完全相同的——我們是一家成長型公司。我們致力於投資企業有價值的成長，並繼續佔領全球市場份額。我們很幸運擁有一種商業模式，它產生的現金多於我們實現成長所需的現金。

And so from that perspective, we would expect to continue to stay very solidly in the investment-grade leverage range and return excess capital to our shareholders.

因此，從這個角度來看，我們預計將繼續穩定地保持在投資等級槓桿範圍內，並將多餘的資本回饋給我們的股東。

Okay. And then I just wanted to ask you, again, you mentioned sort of the ground lease purchases. I mean -- and I think there's sort of a view that next year we could see sort of some pickup in hotel transaction activity. Would you hope to bring some of your owned assets to market next year?

好的。然後我想再問你，你提到了某種土地租賃購買。我的意思是——我認為有一種觀點認為，明年我們可能會看到酒店交易活動有所回升。您希望明年將您擁有的一些資產推向市場嗎？

I mean, is that coming back and just sort of maybe more focus now? I know it's a smaller portfolio, but just kind of wondering your updated thoughts there?

我的意思是，這種感覺會回來並且現在可能會更加集中嗎？我知道這是一個較小的投資組合，但只是想知道您的最新想法？

So certainly, all the time, the reality is we're looking at that all the time and evaluating what makes the most sense. As you've heard us talk about the W Union Square as well as the elegant portfolio in Barbados. We are nearing the end of the renovation of those properties and obviously, would look to take advantage of what we expect to be very strong performance on the part of those -- that portfolio in that hotel.

所以當然，現實是我們一直在關注這個問題並評估什麼是最有意義的。正如您聽到我們談論的 W 聯合廣場酒店以及巴貝多的優雅組合。我們對這些酒店的翻新工作已接近尾聲，顯然，我們希望利用我們期望的這些酒店的強勁表現——該酒店的投資組合。

And so as we move forward, depending on the financing environment and the appetite between as always, buyers and sellers, we will take advantage of that. So we're always searching for that.

因此，隨著我們前進，根據融資環境以及買家和賣家之間的興趣，我們將利用這一點。所以我們一直在尋找那個。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

莉齊·多夫，高盛。

I was just wondering if you could give a little bit of a pulse check on the consumer. I know Tony you mentioned last quarter and then it skipped intra-quarter, just a little bit of pullback on ancillary spend, food and beverage space, things like that. I'm curious how that has evolved and ever since that period of time and what your kind of expectation is going forward?

我只是想知道你是否可以對消費者進行一些脈搏檢查。我知道托尼，你上個季度提到過，然後季度內就跳過了，只是輔助支出、食品和飲料空間等方面有一點回落。我很好奇從那段時間以來，情況是如何演變的，您對未來有何期望？

Yes. Thank you, Lizzie. Of course, we spend an enormous amount of time in looking at the consumer from every possible angle. But I'll go to the ancillary spend since that was a topic we talked about a quarter ago. When you look globally, you almost have to bifurcate it and look at food beverage for meetings and events versus food and beverage and outlets and lounges.

是的。謝謝你，莉齊。當然，我們花了大量的時間從各個可能的角度觀察消費者。但我會談談輔助支出，因為這是我們一個季度前討論過的話題。當你放眼全球時，你幾乎必須將其一分為二，看看會議和活動的食品飲料與食品和飲料以及商店和休息室。

Food beverage for meetings and events continues to be quite strong. We are seeing a little bit of pullback on outlets and lounges, still growing, and growing materially, but maybe not quite as strong as we saw.

用於會議和活動的食品飲料仍然相當強勁。我們看到商店和休息室有所回落，但仍在增長，而且是大幅增長，但可能沒有我們看到的那麼強勁。

The one thing I would tell you, though, is we're not seeing that weakness in spending from customers of luxury hotels. When you look at outlets and lounge revenue for the third quarter at our luxury hotels. Now this excludes Greater China for some of the reasons we discussed earlier.

不過，我要告訴你的一件事是，我們沒有看到豪華飯店顧客的消費疲軟。當您查看我們豪華酒店第三季的門市和休息室收入。現在，由於我們之前討論過的一些原因，這將大中華區排除在外。

But if you look at our global luxury portfolio ex-China, we actually saw spending in outlets and balances in the luxury portfolio, up 2%, which was the same increase we saw a quarter ago. So we'll continue to watch it, but that's pretty encouraging for us.

但如果你看看我們除中國以外的全球奢侈品投資組合，我們實際上會發現，奢侈品投資組合中的專賣店支出和餘額增長了 2%，與一個季度前的增幅相同。所以我們會繼續關注它，但這對我們來說非常令人鼓舞。

Got it. That's helpful. And then going back to the fee side of things, you mentioned the renovation headwind and the timing of the residential branding fees. As you move into 2025, is that expected to kind of normalize? Will those renovations be kind of broadly complete? Just curious how we should think about the kind of cadence there?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後回到費用方面，您提到了裝修逆風和住宅品牌費用的時間安排。進入 2025 年，這種情況預計會趨於正常化嗎？這些翻修工程會大致完成嗎？只是好奇我們該如何思考那裡的節奏？

Well, you have to know. Yes, on the ones that are finishing up, but we've always got hotels going under renovation. But -- and we obviously will be carefully looking at that as we go through the budgeting process and looking at our fee guidance for next year. I don't expect Lizzie that it would impact things meaningfully.

嗯，你必須知道。是的，那些即將完工的酒店，但我們總是有酒店在裝修。但是，當我們進行預算流程並研究明年的費用指導時，我們顯然會仔細考慮這一點。我不指望莉齊這會對事情產生有意義的影響。

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

查德貝農，麥格理。

Tony, you mentioned that the convention business or the pacing for '25 looks pretty good in terms of room nights and ADR. I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit more. Are you seeing the same companies just kind of renew or add another convention or are you actually seeing growth in some of the businesses or industries that hadn't come back fully from a group standpoint?

托尼，您提到會議業務或 25 年的節奏在間夜數和平均房價方面看起來相當不錯。我想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下。您是否看到同樣的公司只是更新或增加另一個慣例，或者您實際上看到一些企業或行業的成長，但從集團的角度來看，這些企業或行業尚未完全恢復？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Chad. I would say both. We are seeing companies who have been traveling and meeting, building out their calendar of meetings. And we are seeing some of our partners who perhaps were on pause starting to schedule.

是的。謝謝你的提問，查德。我會說兩者。我們看到一些公司一直在出差和開會，並制定了會議日曆。我們看到一些可能暫停的合作夥伴開始安排。

And I think some of that is driven by -- I mean this is a wonderful problem to have, but the availability of dates and space. Particularly if you're a larger group, you're having to peer further and further into the future to find dates and space to accommodate those meetings.

我認為其中一些是由——我的意思是這是一個很好的問題，但是日期和空間的可用性所驅動的。特別是如果您是一個較大的團體，您必須越來越深入地展望未來，以找到容納這些會議的日期和空間。

Great. And then secondly, just on City Express. I know that you began offering the product in North America, and we heard from one of your competitors that they were seeing some deletions in those areas. So it's certainly a good area for conversion or new build. But could you talk about any initial demand for this product here in the US ?

偉大的。其次，就在城市快車上。我知道你們開始在北美提供該產品，我們從你們的一位競爭對手那裡聽說他們在這些地區看到了一些刪除。因此，這無疑是一個進行改造或新建的好地方。但您能談談美國對該產品的初步需求嗎？

Yes. The demand is quite strong. We had people banging on the door saying, would you please announce the name so we can start signing deals. And we're already seeing franchise applications come in. We're seeing deals get approved, We think, as I mentioned, I think, in my opening remarks, we hope to open the first couple in the next couple of months.

是的。需求相當強勁。有人敲門說，請宣布名字，以便我們可以開始簽署協議。我們已經看到特許經營申請進來了。

So exactly what we would have expected. We're seeing strong interest from both our strong portfolio of existing franchise partners. And I think our entry into the mid-scale gives us an opportunity to tap into a group of franchisees who perhaps we've not grown with in the past. .

這正是我們所期望的。我們看到現有特許經營合作夥伴的強大投資組合對此產生了濃厚的興趣。我認為，我們進入中型企業讓我們有機會接觸到一群我們過去可能沒有一起成長的特許經營商。 。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安，Melius 研究中心。

There's a lot of noise, obviously, with the corporate travel from the election, and I think there was some calendar noise in October. But if you could just strip back a lot of those onetime items like what's your general sense of overall corporate travel spend? It seems like it's simply positive and continue to kind of grind up. But just any thoughts there would be helpful.

顯然，選舉帶來的公司旅行帶來了很多噪音，我認為 10 月也存在一些日曆噪音。但是，如果您可以去掉很多一次性項目，例如您對整體商務旅行支出的整體感覺如何？看起來這只是正面的，並且會繼續磨礪。但任何想法都會有幫助。

Yes. I mean grind is not a bad work, but it's slow and steady in the last number of quarters, as we've talked about in each of the calls, we are encouraged by virtue of the fact that we continue to see RevPAR growth quarter-over-quarter in the business transient segment.

是的。我的意思是，磨礪並不是一件壞事，但在過去的幾個季度中，它是緩慢而穩定的，正如我們在每次電話中談到的那樣，我們因我們繼續看到每間客房收入增長這一事實而受到鼓舞 -業務瞬態部分超過季度。

And to me, one of the most encouraging facets of that recovery is on the big corporates. It's been several years since we already got back to above pandemic levels of travel from the small- and medium-sized companies, but the continued growth and the continued return to the road by the big corporates is an encouraging facet of the recovery.

對我來說，復甦最令人鼓舞的方面之一是大企業。中小型企業的出行量已經恢復到高於大流行水平的水平已經有好幾年了，但大企業的持續增長和持續回歸是經濟復甦的一個令人鼓舞的方面。

Okay. And then maybe the 219 million members, I think you mentioned on Bonvoy the direct contribution now or what's OTA and just any thoughts there?

好的。然後也許是 2.19 億會員，我想您在 Bonvoy 上提到了現在的直接貢獻，或者 OTA 是什麼以及有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. So OTA is quite steady. So direct bookings are still in the low 70%, and that's really quite consistent. And I would say, kind of, you can say, close to 40% overall are digital. So that part, consistent, the OT days 12% to 13% has also been quite consistent. The place that has had at the margin slightly higher, has been the GDS, which is really more of a reflection of continued return of the larger corporations doing their bookings.

是的。所以OTA還是比較穩定的。因此，直接預訂仍處於 70% 的低水平，而且這確實相當一致。我想說，可以說，整體上接近 40% 是數位化的。所以這部分是一致的，加班天數 12% 到 13% 也相當一致。利潤率略高的地方是 GDS，這實際上更反映了大公司預訂的持續回報。

But could I say otherwise, great continued movement from the phone and in person to digital, but also overall, a very steady sort of low 70s percent for direct bookings.

但我是否可以說，從電話和麵對面到數位的巨大持續變化，但總體而言，直接預訂的比例非常穩定，低於 70%。

Thank you. We have reached our allotted time for questions today. I will now turn the call back to Tony Capuano for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天我們已經達到了規定的提問時間。現在我將把電話轉回給托尼·卡普阿諾，讓其致閉幕詞。

Great. Well, again, thank you for your interest in Marriott. Thanks for your questions today. For a whole host of reasons, it's going to be a busy week for all of us, but we appreciate your interest, and we'll look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Have a great day.

偉大的。再次感謝您對萬豪酒店的關注。感謝您今天提出的問題。由於多種原因，這對我們所有人來說都將是忙碌的一周，但我們感謝您的關注，我們期待下個季度與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This does conclude the Marriott International Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day.

萬豪國際集團 2024 年第三季財報電話會議至此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。