萬豪國際 (MAR) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

萬豪在 2024 年第一季財報電話會議上公佈了強勁的財務業績,全球每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 增長 4.2%,所有客戶群均實現增長。他們提高了今年的獲利和資本回報指引,這主要是受到強勁的國際收入的推動。儘管中國和美國休閒領域面臨挑戰,萬豪國際仍對全球每間可出租客房收入前景持樂觀態度。

該公司專注於數位轉型並擴大中型品牌。萬豪集團的收入成長和建設活動都在積極成長,並透過 Bonvoy 計畫專注於參與度和忠誠度。他們還計劃推出一個新的中檔品牌,以滿足不斷變化的客人喜好。

萬豪的強勁業績歸功於其在各個領域的策略性舉措,包括對數位創新、國際市場成長以及增強客戶忠誠度的關注。透過發展中型品牌並推出新的轉換品牌,萬豪正在適應不斷變化的賓客偏好,並為自己在未來的持續成功做好準備。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Marriott International First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's call will be recorded, and I'll be standing by if you should need any assistance.

    大家好,歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2024年第一季財報電話會議。 (操作說明)請注意,本次電話會議將被錄音,如有任何需要,請隨時與我聯繫。

  • It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Jackie McConagha, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我很高興將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁傑基·麥康納哈女士。請她開始吧。

  • Jackie Burka McConagha - SVP of IR

    Jackie Burka McConagha - SVP of IR

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

    謝謝大家。早安,歡迎參加萬豪酒店集團2024年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席會議的有:總裁兼執行長托尼·卡普阿諾;財務長兼發展執行副總裁莉妮·奧伯格;以及投資者關係副總裁貝齊·達姆。

  • Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

    在正式開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們今天所作的許多陳述並非歷史事實,而是聯邦證券法所界定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響,具體內容已在提交給美國證券交易委員會(SEC)的文件中闡述,這些風險和不確定因素可能導致未來的實際結果與我們在陳述中明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。

  • Unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy, average daily rate and property level revenues comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels, and all changes refer to year-over-year changes for the comparable period. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

    除非另有說明,我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)、平均每日房價和物業層面的收入數據均反映的是系統範圍內可比酒店的固定匯率結果,所有變動均指與去年同期相比的變化。我們今天早些時候發布的聲明和新聞稿中的陳述僅在今天有效,不會隨著實際情況的演變而更新。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及今天聲明中提及的所有非公認會計準則 (非GAAP) 財務指標的調節表。

  • And now, I will turn the call over to Tony.

    現在,我將把電話交給東尼。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. 2024 is off to a solid start, as Marriott continues to deliver great experiences to travelers around the world. First quarter global RevPAR rose 4.2% with ADR increasing around 3% and occupancy reaching almost 66%, up nearly 100 basis points year-over-year.

    謝謝Jackie,大家早安。 2024年開局良好,萬豪酒店集團持續為全球旅客提供卓越體驗。第一季全球每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)成長4.2%,平均房價(ADR)成長約3%,入住率接近66%,較去年同期成長近100個基點。

  • While overall industry RevPAR growth is normalizing post-COVID, we continue to gain RevPAR index across our portfolio and increase our market share of global hotels. Once again, we saw RevPAR growth across all 3 of our customer segments, Group, leisure transient and business transit.

    儘管疫情後整個產業的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)成長已趨於正常,但我們旗下所有飯店的RevPAR指數持續提升,並擴大了我們在全球飯店的市場份額。我們再次看到,在所有三個客戶群體——團體、休閒散客和商務旅客——中,RevPAR均實現了成長。

  • Group, which comprised 24% of global room nights in the first quarter was again the strongest customer segment. Compared to the year ago quarter, Group RevPAR rose 6% globally. Full year 2024 worldwide Group revenues were pacing up 9% year-over-year at the end of the first quarter, with a 5% increase in room nights and a 4% rise in average daily rate. Leisure transient accounted for 42% of worldwide room nights in the quarter. Globally, both leisure demand and ADR growth have remained remarkably resilient, driving leisure RevPAR up 4% year-over-year.

    第一季度,團體客戶佔全球客房夜數的24%,再次成為最強勁的客戶群。與去年同期相比,團體客戶RevPAR全球成長6%。截至第一季末,2024財年全球團體客戶營收預計年增9%,其中客房夜數成長5%,平均每日房價成長4%。休閒散客在本季佔全球客房夜數的42%。全球範圍內,休閒需求和平均每日房價成長均保持強勁勢頭,推動休閒客戶RevPAR年增4%。

  • Business transient, which contributed the remaining 34% of global room nights in the first quarter, had a 1% increase in RevPAR. We are making great progress on the multiyear digital and technology transformation of our 3 major systems, reservations, property management and loyalty.

    商務散客貢獻了第一季全球客房夜數的34%,其每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)增加了1%。我們在三大主要係統(預訂系統、物業管理系統和會員系統)的多年數位化和技術轉型方面取得了顯著進展。

  • Through this transformation, we expect to unlock new revenue opportunities, further strengthen our efficient operating model, enhance Marriott Bonvoy and elevate the associate and customer digital experience. We still expect to begin rolling out our new cloud-based systems to properties next year. In the meantime, we're enhancing the digital experiences that matter most to customers, primarily how they shop and both through our channels.

    透過此次轉型,我們預期能開拓新的收入來源,進一步強化高效率的營運模式,提升萬豪旅享家服務,並改善員工和顧客的數位體驗。我們仍計劃於明年開始在各酒店推廣新的雲端系統。同時,我們將著力提升對顧客至關重要的數位化體驗,主要體現在顧客的購物方式以及我們各個通路的購物體驗上。

  • We also recently celebrated the 5-year anniversary of Marriott Bonvoy, which added nearly 7 million members during the quarter and had around 203 million members at the end of March. Member penetration of global room nights reached record highs in the first quarter at 70% in the U.S. and Canada and 64% globally.

    我們最近也慶祝了萬豪旅享家成立五週年,該品牌在本季度新增了近700萬會員,截至3月底會員總數約為2.03億。第一季度,會員在全球客房夜數的滲透率創下歷史新高,美國和加拿大達到70%,全球達到64%。

  • Since its introduction, Marriott Bonvoy has evolved to become a travel and loyalty platform, encompassing a portfolio of more than 30 brands across nearly 8,900 properties and other travel offerings such as Homes & Villas by Marriott Bonvoy and the Ritz-Carlton Yacht Collection. Marriott Bonvoy also spans numerous additional collaborations and member benefits, including co-brand credit cards in 11 markets and counting and access to a broad range of unique, curated experiences through Marriott Bonvoy modes, including select Taylor Swift Eras Tour concert performances.

    自推出以來,萬豪旅享家已發展成為一個集旅行和會員忠誠度於一體的平台,旗下擁有超過30個品牌,涵蓋近8,900家酒店及其他旅行產品,例如萬豪旅享家別墅和麗思卡爾頓遊艇系列。萬豪旅享家也提供許多其他合作項目和會員專屬權益,包括在11個市場(且數量還在不斷增加)推出聯名信用卡,以及透過萬豪旅享家平台獲取一系列精心策劃的獨特體驗,例如部分泰勒·斯威夫特巡迴演唱會門票。

  • Looking ahead, we continue to focus on new ways to enhance the platform and connect with our members in their daily lives and across their traffic churns. We had a very busy first quarter on the development front. We added a record 46,000 net rooms, growing our distribution by 7.1% compared to the end of the first quarter last year. MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy has now launched with 16 properties in Las Vegas and other key U.S. cities now available on our system.

    展望未來,我們將繼續專注於探索提昇平台體驗的新途徑,並在會員的日常生活和流量波動中與他們建立更緊密的聯繫。第一季我們在發展方面取得了顯著進展。我們新增了創紀錄的46,000間淨客房,與去年同期相比,客房分銷量增加了7.1%。 MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy現已正式上線,目前已有16家位於拉斯維加斯及其他美國主要城市的飯店加入我們的系統。

  • While it's still early days, we've been extremely pleased with the initial booking pace and Marriott Bonvoy room contribution, which have both outpaced expectations. While the financing environment in the U.S. and Europe is still challenging, we have strong momentum in global signings after a record 2023 and have tremendous optimism for the full year. Both Greater China and APAC had notable deal production in the first quarter.

    雖然目前還處於初期階段,但我們對目前的預訂速度和萬豪旅享家客房收入貢獻感到非常滿意,這兩項數據都超乎預期。儘管美國和歐洲的融資環境依然充滿挑戰,但在創紀錄的2023年之後,我們在全球的簽約勢頭強勁,並對全年充滿信心。大中華區和亞太地區在第一季均取得了顯著的交易成果。

  • Year-over-year, our open and pipeline rooms grew 6.7%, excluding the addition of our 17,000 City Express rooms. Conversions, including multiunit opportunities. Continue to be a meaningful driver of growth, representing 30% of global signings in the first quarter. Our new mid-scale brands, City Express by Marriott, Four Points Express and StudioRes are seeing significant developer interest.

    不計新增的17,000間City Express客房,我們的已開放和在建客房數量年增6.7%。包括多單元專案在內的轉換專案仍然是重要的成長驅動力,佔第一季全球簽約量的30%。我們的全新中檔品牌City Express by Marriott、Four Points Express和StudioRes受到了開發商的廣泛關注。

  • Earlier this year, we signed our first City Express deal in the region since acquiring the brand and we are in multiple deal discussions for other properties across the CALA region. We have also now opened our first Four Points Express in Turkey and have other properties in the pipeline. We also recently signed our first mid-scale deal in the APAC, a portfolio of more than a dozen hotels that are expected to be added to our system later this year.

    今年早些時候,我們簽署了自收購該品牌以來在該地區的第一筆City Express酒店交易,目前正與CALA地區其他多家酒店洽談合作事宜。此外,我們在土耳其開設了首家Four Points Express酒店,並有其他酒店正在籌建中。近期,我們還簽署了在亞太地區的首筆中檔酒店交易,該組合包含十幾家酒店,預計將於今年晚些時候納入我們的系統。

  • In the U.S. & Canada, we have commitments for around 140 StudioRes properties and are actively working on deals for over 100 more. Additionally in about a month, we look forward to unveiling details on our next exciting brand launch, a conversion-friendly mid-scale brand in the region. As always, I've spent much of my time this year traveling around the world. It's been a pleasure to visit many of our amazing hotels and speak with our incredible associates. I want to express my gratitude to all of our associates for their continued hard work and dedication.

    在美國和加拿大,我們承諾投資約140家StudioRes酒店,並正在積極洽談另外100多家酒店的交易。此外,大約一個月後,我們將公佈下一個令人興奮的新品牌——一個適合區域內改建的中檔品牌——的詳情。和往年一樣,今年我大部分時間都在世界各地旅行。很高興有機會參觀我們許多優秀的酒店,並與我們傑出的員工交流。我要衷心感謝所有員工的辛勤付出和敬業精神。

  • As Leeny will now discuss further as part of her financial review, we are raising our full year 2024 earnings and capital returns guidance on the back of the strength of our diverse global portfolio, the continued resilient and steady demand for travel, our strong international performance and our continued rooms growth. Leeny?

    正如Leeny將在其財務審查中進一步討論的那樣,鑑於我們多元化的全球投資組合實力雄厚、持續穩定的旅行需求、強勁的國際業績以及客房數量的持續增長,我們上調了2024年全年盈利和資本回報預期。 Leeny?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • Thank you, Tony. Our first quarter global RevPAR rose 4.2%. RevPAR in the U.S. & Canada, where demand has normalized, rose 1.5%. Growth in the U.S. & Canada was led by strong Group and large corporate business with our top 100 accounts seeing the most sequential improvement in 8 quarters. Leisure RevPAR was flat in the U.S. & Canada, with more customers going abroad to find warmer weather.

    謝謝托尼。我們第一季的全球每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)成長了4.2%。在美國和加拿大,隨著需求恢復正常,RevPAR成長了1.5%。美國和加拿大的成長主要得益於集團和大型企業客戶的強勁表現,其中前100大客戶的業績在過去8個季度中實現了最大的環比增長。由於更多顧客選擇出國享受溫暖的氣候,美國和加拿大的休閒旅遊RevPAR基本上持平。

  • Our quarterly RevPAR results in the region was impacted by negative growth in March, due to the timing of Easter, given less business and Group travel that we booked before the holiday. The impact on the month's RevPAR was roughly negative 300 basis points. Of course, we expect a similar favorable impact in April's RevPAR. First quarter international RevPAR increased 11%. Growth was led by a remarkable 16.5% RevPAR gain in APAC, helped by strong macro trends, sustained leisure and business growth and an uptick in cross-border demand especially from Mainland China as international airlift improved.

    由於復活節假期臨近,導致我們在3月的季度RevPAR(每間可供出租客房收入)出現負增長,節前商務和團體旅行預訂量有所減少。當月RevPAR受到的影響約為-300個基點。當然,我們預期4月的RevPAR將受到類似的正面影響。第一季國際RevPAR成長了11%。亞太地區RevPAR實現了顯著成長,增幅高達16.5%,這主要得益於強勁的宏觀經濟趨勢、持續的休閒和商務旅行增長,以及跨境需求(尤其是來自中國大陸的需求)的回升,而國際航空運力的改善也帶動了這一增長。

  • RevPAR and CALA rose nearly 12% in the quarter, with excellent leisure demand coming from the U.S. RevPAR grew 10% in EMEA with strong growth across most of our largest markets. Greater China experienced a 6% increase in RevPAR while growth was strong in January and February, rising 10% for those 2 months. Demand weakened a bit after the Chinese New Year with slower macroeconomic growth and more outbound travel especially from high-income travelers.

    本季RevPAR和CALA均成長近12%,其中美國休閒旅遊需求強勁。歐洲、中東和非洲地區RevPAR成長10%,大部分主要市場均實現強勁成長。大中華區RevPAR成長6%,1月及2月成長尤為顯著,兩個月累計成長10%。春節後,隨著宏觀經濟成長放緩以及出境旅遊(尤其是高收入遊客)增多,需求略有下降。

  • First quarter total gross fee revenues were above our expectations, rising 7% year-over-year to $1.21 billion. The increase reflects higher RevPAR, rooms growth and 10% higher co-brand credit card fees. [Global] card acquisitions grew 18% and card spend rose 10%, driven by significant growth in our international card programs. Incentive management fees, or IMF, rose 4%, reaching $209 million in the first quarter. Significant increases in each of our international regions were offset by a decline in the U.S. & Canada, in part due to lower fees in Mali. First quarter adjusted EBITDA grew 4% to nearly $1.14 billion.

    第一季總毛手續費營收超出預期,年增7%至12.1億美元。成長主要得益於每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)的提高、客房數量的增長以及聯名信用卡手續費增長10%。 [全球]信用卡新增業務成長18%,信用卡消費額成長10%,主要得益於國際信用卡專案的顯著成長。激勵管理費(IMF)成長4%,第一季達到2.09億美元。各國際區域的顯著增長被美國和加拿大的下滑所抵消,部分原因是馬裡的費用降低。第一季調整後EBITDA成長4%,接近11.4億美元。

  • Now let's talk about our outlook for the full year. Our 2024 outlook still assumes continued sturdy travel demand and a continuation of current macroeconomic trends. Global RevPAR is expected to grow 4% to 5% in the second quarter and 3% to 5% for the full year. By customer segment, RevPAR growth is still anticipated to be driven by another year of strong growth in Group revenue, continued improvement in business transient revenues and slower but still growing leisure revenues.

    現在我們來談談全年的展望。我們對2024年的展望仍然是基於強勁的旅遊需求和當前宏觀經濟趨勢的延續。預計全球每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)第二季將成長4%至5%,全年成長3%至5%。按客戶群體劃分,RevPAR的成長預計仍將主要得益於團體收入的強勁成長、商務散客收入的持續改善以及休閒收入成長放緩但仍在成長。

  • RevPAR growth is expected to remain higher in our international markets than in the U.S. & Canada. While our full year global RevPAR guidance is not changing compared to our prior expectations, we now expect higher year-over-year RevPAR growth in APAC, EMEA and CALA and lower RevPAR growth in the U.S. & Canada and Greater China. As a result, we are raising our full year adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS expectations, primarily due to higher of (inaudible) from our international regions. In the second quarter, RevPAR grow benefits from Easter timing. Fee growth is expected to be in the 7% to 8% range.

    預計國際市場的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長將高於美國和加拿大。儘管我們全年全球 RevPAR 指引與先前的預期基本一致,但我們現在預計亞太地區、歐洲、中東和非洲地區 (EMEA) 以及中美洲和拉丁美洲地區的 RevPAR 同比成長率將高於美國、加拿大和大中華區的年成長率。因此,我們上調了全年調整後 EBITDA 和調整後每股盈餘 (EPS) 的預期,主要原因是國際市場的成長(聽不清楚)。第二季度,RevPAR 成長將受惠於復活節假期。預計費用成長將在 7% 至 8% 之間。

  • Our owned, leased and other revenues, net of expenses, are anticipated to be lower than the prior year, largely as a result of a few favorable items in the year ago quarter. For the full year, gross fees could now rise 7% to 9% to $5.2 billion to $5.3 billion with non-RevPAR-related fees rising 9% to 10%, driven by strong credit card and residential branding fee growth. The sensitivity of a 1% change in full year 2024 RevPAR versus 2023 could be around $50 million to $60 million of RevPAR related fees.

    扣除各項支出後,我們自有物業、租賃物業及其他收入預計將低於去年同期,主要是由於去年同期部分有利因素所致。全年來看,總費用收入可望成長7%至9%,達到52億美元至53億美元,其中非RevPAR相關費用收入可望成長9%至10%,主要得益於信用卡和住宅品牌推廣費用的強勁成長。 2024年全年RevPAR與2023年相比,1%的變動可能導致RevPAR相關費用收入減少約5,000萬美元至6,000萬美元。

  • Owned, leased and other revenues, net of expenses, could now total $335 million to $345 million. We now expect 2024 G&A expense could rise 1% to 3% year-over-year. Recall that there are a few discrete onetime items from 2023 that are expected to offset wage and benefit increases. Full year adjusted EBITDA is now expected to rise between 7% and 9% to roughly $5 billion to $5.1 billion. Our 2024 effective tax rate is expected to be just above 25%.

    扣除各項支出後,自有資產、租賃資產及其他收入總額預計在3.35億美元至3.45億美元之間。我們預計2024年一般及行政費用將年增1%至3%。需要注意的是,2023年有一些一次性項目,預計將抵消薪資和福利的成長。全年調整後EBITDA預計將成長7%至9%,達到約50億美元至51億美元。我們預計2024年的實際稅率將略高於25%。

  • 2024 adjusted EPS is now expected to be between $9.31 and $9.65. We still anticipate net rooms growth of 5.5% to 6% for the full year. Additionally, we remain confident in the 3-year net rooms compound annual growth rate we discussed at last year's investor meeting of 5% to 5.5% from year-end '22 to year-end 2025. For more details on second quarter and full year metrics, please see our press release.

    2024年調整後每股盈餘預計在9.31美元至9.65美元之間。我們仍預期全年淨客房成長率為5.5%至6%。此外,我們仍對去年投資者會議上討論的2022年底至2025年底三年淨客房複合年增長率5%至5.5%的目標充滿信心。有關第二季度和全年指標的更多詳情,請參閱我們的新聞稿。

  • Our capital allocation philosophy remains the same. We're committed to our investment-grade rating, investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value and then returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest but rising cash dividend and share repurchases. For 2024, factoring in the $500 million of required cash in the fourth quarter for the purchase of the Sheraton Grand Chicago, given our higher adjusted EBITDA expectation, capital returns to shareholders could now be between $4.2 billion and $4.4 billion.

    我們的資本配置理念保持不變。我們致力於維持投資等級信用評級,投資於能夠提升股東價值的成長項目,並透過適度但不斷成長的現金分紅和股票回購,將剩餘資本返還給股東。考慮到2024年第四季收購芝加哥喜來登大飯店所需的5億美元現金,以及我們更高的調整後EBITDA預期,股東資本回報預計將在42億美元至44億美元之間。

  • Full year investment spending is still expected to total $1 billion to $1.2 billion. This includes another year of higher than historical investment in technology, the vast majority of which is expected to be reimbursed over time. As a reminder, the $500 million for the Sheraton Grand Chicago consists of $200 million of CapEx and $300 million elimination of a previously recorded guarantee liability. Investment spending is also expected to incorporate roughly $200 million for our owned lease portfolio.

    全年投資支出預計仍將達到10億至12億美元。這其中包括另一年高於歷史水準的技術投資,其中絕大部分預計將在未來償還。需要提醒的是,芝加哥喜來登大酒店的5億美元投資包括2億美元的資本支出和3億美元的先前記錄的擔保負債的消除。投資支出預計還將包括約2億美元用於我們自有租賃物業組合。

  • It includes spending for the elegant portfolio in Barbados as well as the renovations for the fabulous W Union Square in Manhattan. We'll ultimately look to recycle these assets and sign long-term management contracts after renovations are complete.

    這筆資金包括用於巴貝多高檔物業組合的維護以及曼哈頓W Union Square酒店的翻新工程。翻新工程完成後,我們最終將尋求對這些資產進行再利用,並簽署長期管理合約。

  • Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

    托尼和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。接線生?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利。

  • Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Leeny or Tony, I'd love to dig in actually on China a little bit. I thought the comment in Leeny's prepared remarks about some of the slowdown you're seeing there was incremental. So my questions are two-fold. One, seeing that continue at all into April? If you could give us just kind of a little bit of a real-time feel. And Tony, I'm sure you've probably been over in that region. So maybe if you could help us break it down by, is this in Hong Kong, Macau? Or is this sort of more broadly across some of the cities? And then secondarily, probably as importantly, is any of this translating into what you're seeing on the development front?

    Leeny 或 Tony,我很想深入了解中國的情況。 Leeny 在事先準備好的演講稿中提到,中國經濟成長放緩的情況只是漸進式的。所以我有兩個問題。第一,這種情況會持續到四月嗎?能否請您提供一些即時的感受? Tony,我相信您去過中國,能否幫我們具體分析一下,這種情況是侷限於香港、澳門,還是波及到其他一些城市?第二,同樣重要的是,這些情況是否對中國的發展現況產生了影響?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • So let me answer the latter part first because that's very easy to point out, and that has absolutely no impact on the development front. Matter of fact, as Tony pointed out, we actually had a tremendous quarter of signings in Greater China in the first quarter as well as APAC for that matter. So really excellent continued demand for our brands and from owners there.

    讓我先回答後半部分,因為這一點很容易指出,而且對發展方面沒有任何影響。事實上,正如托尼指出的那樣,我們在第一季在大中華區以及亞太地區的簽約量都非常驚人。所以,我們品牌在當地以及業主的需求依然非常旺盛。

  • From Q1 was a little interesting in Greater China, Shaun, a little bit of a tail of each month. And from that standpoint, you've had a really strong domestic demand coming in January and February and with the Chinese New Year, but also reflecting the fact that last year in Q1, for example, Hainan, we're seeing stunning increase in demand, all domestic as they were coming out of COVID.

    肖恩,大中華區第一季的情況有點意思,每個月都略有波動。從這個角度來看,1月和2月以及春節期間的國內需求非常強勁,但也反映出去年第一季度的情況,例如海南,我們看到需求出現了驚人的增長,全部來自國內市場,因為他們正從新冠疫情中恢復過來。

  • So when you think about it for the full quarter, Hainan actually had a decline in RevPAR year-over-year, although very strong demand. And in Hong Kong and then Macau with much more relaxed restrictions, we had almost 30% increase in RevPAR in Q1. So super strong. The Tier 1 cities were very strong. Classic Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, they did really well. It's really where we saw, interestingly in March, the new Tier 1 cities is where I think you were seeing the impact of the overall macroeconomic picture in China where it wasn't quite as strong as we might have expected.

    所以,從整個季度來看,海南的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)實際上比去年同期下降了,儘管需求非常強勁。而香港和澳門則因限制措施放寬,第一季的RevPAR成長了近30%,表現非常強勁。一線城市表現特別突出,例如深圳、上海和北京,這些城市都表現出色。有趣的是,我們在3月發現,新興的一線城市受到了中國整體宏觀經濟情勢的影響,其表現不如預期強勁。

  • But again, overall, still really strong RevPAR for Greater China at 6%. And again, for the full year, we still expect nice strong RevPAR for Greater China. But yes, a bit of a view that the macroeconomic situation there may mean that RevPAR is a little bit lower than we expected a quarter ago.

    但總的來說,大中華區的RevPAR依然非常強勁,達到6%。我們預計全年大中華區的RevPAR也將保持良好勢頭。不過,鑑於當地的宏觀經濟形勢,我們認為RevPAR可能會略低於我們上個季度的預期。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • And Shaun, the only maybe qualitative observation I would share with you, and I'll try to underpin it with one statistic. I was there recently. I was in Shenzhen, I was in Hong Kong, I was in Macau. And while it certainly does not feel as balanced and populated with international visitors as maybe we were accustomed to pre-pandemic world, it felt better than when I was there a year ago.

    肖恩,我唯一想跟你分享的可能是定性的觀察,我會用一個數據來佐證。我最近去過那裡。我去過深圳、香港和澳門。雖然那裡現在的國際遊客數量和平衡程度肯定不如疫情前那麼高,但感覺比我一年前去的時候好多了。

  • And in fact, if you look at the first quarter, international guest represented about 15% of our room nights in Greater China. That compares to about 28% in the same quarter back in 2019. So it is improving steadily and the availability of airline seats is improving steadily. But I think over time, that represents some additional upside for us as more and more international visitors return to China.

    事實上,如果你看一下第一季的數據,國際遊客在我們大中華區的客房入住夜數中約佔15%。相較之下,2019年同期這一比例約為28%。因此,國際遊客入住率正在穩步提升,機票供應也穩定改善。我認為,隨著越來越多的國際遊客重返中國,從長遠來看,這將為我們帶來額外的成長空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·格林布林。

  • Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

    Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

  • Would love to just clarify a couple of things on the guidance. On the fee increase to the guidance. Is that all IMS? Or is there any change as we think about non-RevPAR-related contributions? And then I would love to just hear some of the moving parts for the increase on the owned and lease side, too.

    我想就指導意見澄清幾個問題。關於指導意見中的費用增加,這是否完全取決於IMS?或者,當我們考慮與RevPAR無關的貢獻時,費用是否會有任何變化?另外,我還想了解自有物業和租賃物業方面費用增加的具體原因。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • Yes, sure. Absolutely. So again, I'm going to do one of the last ones first, and that is this does not -- this increase in fees does not reflect an increase in the non-RevPAR-related fees. We still do expect really strong growth as we talked about the 9% to 10% year-over-year in those fees, but not an increase in those from our prior guidance. I would say, Stephen, it's about 75% of the increase is from IMF really overwhelmingly essentially entirely from our international markets.

    是的,當然。絕對沒問題。所以,我先來說說最後一個問題,那就是──這次費用上漲並不反映非RevPAR相關費用的成長。我們仍然預期這些費用會像之前提到的那樣強勁成長,年增9%到10%,但不會超過我們先前的預期。史蒂芬,我想說,大約75%的成長來自國際貨幣基金組織(IMF),幾乎完全來自我們的國際市場。

  • Just to give you a sense. A year ago in the first quarter, international was 58% of our IMFs and this year in the first quarter, it was 64%. And again, just as an example, in APAC, 90% of our managed hotels paid IMF in the first quarter and in tallow, it was almost 80%. So they both saw some really nice increases. So we clearly outperformed particularly in the IMF space. The remainder of the growth is really a reflection of non RevPAR-related growth fees.

    舉個例子,去年第一季度,國際業務占我們國際管理費的58%,而今年第一季則達到了64%。再舉個例子,在亞太地區,我們管理的飯店中有90%在第一季支付了國際管理費,而塔洛地區這一比例接近80%。因此,這兩個領域的成長都非常顯著。顯然,我們在國際管理費方面表現尤為出色。其餘的成長則主要來自與每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)無關的成長費用。

  • For example, when you have in international and hotels, very strong food and beverage sales, et cetera, where we're also getting fees as well as the ramp-up of our fast-growing segments in Asia Pacific. When you think about a new hotel that's [waking] up, we're getting nice fee growth there as well. but 75% is really from the IMF and obviously, including the outperformance in Q1.

    例如,在國際旅館業務中,餐飲銷售等各方面表現強勁,我們不僅能獲得相應的費用收入,還能受益於亞太地區快速成長的業務板塊的擴張。此外,當一家新酒店開業時,我們也能獲得可觀的費用成長。但其中75%的收入確實來自國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的貸款,當然也包括第一季的優異表現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

  • Joseph Richard Greff - MD

    Joseph Richard Greff - MD

  • Leeny, in your prepared remarks, you went through the 3 main customer segments going through your full year '24 outlook and you talked about leisure seeing slow but still positive RevPAR growth. I think that was on a worldwide global basis, what baked in for U.S. leisure RevPAR growth for the balance of the year?

    Leeny,您在事先準備好的發言稿中,回顧了2024年全年展望中的三大主要客戶群體,並提到休閒旅遊RevPAR增長緩慢但仍保持正增長。我認為這是指全球範圍內的成長,那麼美國休閒旅遊RevPAR在剩餘時間內的成長情況如何呢?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • Well, so generally speaking, we do see leisure relatively speaking, at the lower end of the growth, but still being positive. But I would put it towards the lower end. Group is going to be the home run hitter. Again, for the full year, we do see BT being up as well and continuing to progress. As you know, Joe, in Q1, obviously, BT was weaker because of the month of March.

    總的來說,休閒娛樂產業的成長相對而言較為緩慢,但仍保持正成長。不過,我認為它的增速會更靠後一些。集團業務將會是成長的絕對主力。此外,我們預計全年而言,商務旅遊業務也將成長並持續發展。如你所知,喬,第一季商務旅遊業務表現疲軟,這顯然是由於三月的市場波動。

  • But when we look at it overall for the year, we do expect BT to continue to gain ground. And if I can, I'm going to go back for 1 second and answer Shaun's question on owned lease, which the increase in guidance there is overwhelmingly from a stronger performance in our international owned, leased hotel portfolio. Sorry, Joe, I'm going to hijack your question there to make sure I answer what I was asked before.

    但從全年整體來看,我們預計BT將持續取得進展。如果可以的話,我想花一點時間回答Shaun關於自有租賃業務的問題,這方面的業績預期上調主要得益於我們國際自有租賃酒店組合的強勁表現。抱歉,Joe,我得先回答你剛才的問題,確保我回答了之前被問到的問題。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • And I think, Joe, the further answer to your question, the differences we're seeing in leisure in the U.S. & Canada relative to global leisure are broadly reflective of demand patterns we're seeing across segments. If you look at the guidance we're giving, we're not changing our RevPAR guidance, but it's shifting a little bit.

    喬,我認為,對於你的問題,我們進一步回答是,美國和加拿大休閒市場與全球休閒市場之間的差異,很大程度上反映了我們在各個細分市場中觀察到的需求模式。如果你看我們給的績效指引,我們並沒有改變每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)的指引,只是略有調整。

  • We're seeing a little more normalization in the U.S. & Canada but continued increases in strength in the international markets. And I think that applies specifically to your question on the leisure.

    我們看到美國和加拿大的市場正在逐步恢復正常,但國際市場依然強勁。我認為這尤其適用於您提出的休閒旅遊問題。

  • Joseph Richard Greff - MD

    Joseph Richard Greff - MD

  • Great. And then, Tony, I think in your prepared comments talking about the MGM licensing deal. I think you used the words, " We're extremely pleased and outpacing expectations." Can you talk a little bit what that specifically means? And maybe kind of throw -- I don't know, if it's adoption measures or share of occupancy? Any kind of details would be helpful.

    好的。東尼,我想在你之前準備好的關於米高梅授權協議的發言稿中,你提到「我們非常滿意,而且超出了預期」。你能具體解釋一下這代表什麼嗎?例如,是指推廣率還是入住率?任何細節都會很有幫助。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Not yet, Joe. I mean I think it's so early. We just brought them on the platform. So it's more anecdotal than anything else. My guess is, Bill, and our friends at MGM will talk about it from their perspective as well. But having done these sorts of deals over the years, both parties have expectations about how quickly we'll start to get traction on booking volumes and Bonvoy penetration. And we make some assumptions as we do those deals. And I think it's safe to say from Marriott's perspective, those expectations have been exceeded in the early days.

    是的,喬,還沒到時候。我的意思是,我覺得現在還太早了。我們才剛把他們引入平台。所以目前更多的是一些零星的觀察,而不是定論。我猜比爾和我們在美高梅的朋友們也會從他們的角度談談這件事。但多年來我們做過很多類似的合作,雙方都對預訂量和萬豪旅享家滲透率的成長速度有所預期。我們在達成這些合作時也會做出一些假設。我認為可以肯定地說,從萬豪的角度來看,這些預期在初期就已經被超越了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

    下一個問題將來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

  • Charles Patrick Scholes - MD of Lodging, Gaming and Leisure Equity Research & Analyst

    Charles Patrick Scholes - MD of Lodging, Gaming and Leisure Equity Research & Analyst

  • I wonder if you can talk a little bit about how 2025 and 2026 group revenue pace is looking. Maybe break that out both by occupancy and ADR. Certainly seeing a very good group business this year, but comps do get harder going forward. And I'm curious if you could give us some color on the future years with that segment?

    我想請您談談2025年和2026年團體收入成長的預期情況。最好能分別以入住率和平均房價(ADR)進行分析。今年的團體業務確實非常不錯,但未來同店銷售的難度將會越來越大。另外,您能否就未來幾年該細分市場的發展趨勢提供一些展望?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So Patrick, it's early to start talking about 2026, but I'll try to give you some visibility into a Group pace in 2025. Right now, we're tracking up about 13%, and it is driven by both gains in demand and ADR. We're up about 7% in definite rooms and up about 5% in ADR.

    是的。派崔克,現在談2026年還為時過早,但我會盡量讓你了解一下集團在2025年的發展速度。目前,我們的成長速度約為13%,這主要得益於需求和平均房價(ADR)的雙雙成長。其中,已確定入住的客房數量增加了約7%,平均房價增加了約5%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

    下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

  • Brandt Antoine Montour - Research Analyst

    Brandt Antoine Montour - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to talk a little bit about construction activity. Your pipeline went up. It looks like nicely quarter-over-quarter. You back out MGM out of the construction pipeline. And so I guess, Tony, is there a sense that there's been any change in the developer mood with sort of latest notion that the Fed could be on hold for longer? And maybe you could talk through the lens of U.S. starts?

    我想稍微談談建築活動。你們的在建工程增加了,看起來比上季成長不錯。你們把米高梅從在建案中剔除了。所以我想問,托尼,鑑於聯準會可能更長時間維持利率不變,開發商的情緒是否有所改變?或許你可以從美國新開工計畫的角度談談?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. So maybe I'll go follow Leeny's trend of going in reverse order. I'll talk a little bit about the pipeline and then let Leeny provide some insights on both developer sentiment and construction starts. I agree with your observation. I think the trends on the pipeline are really encouraging. And the thing that was really encouraging to me, if you look at the pipeline and just compare Q1 '24 to Q1 '23, because it's a decent apples-to-apples comparison because neither of those would have had MGM, were up 9% year-over-year on the pipeline. And I think that's reflective of some of the broad trends that Leeny described in her prepared remarks.

    當然。那我或許會效法Leeny的做法,反其道而行。我會先簡單談談專案儲備情況,然後讓Leeny分享她對開發商情緒和開工建設情況的見解。我同意你的看法。我認為專案儲備的趨勢確實令人鼓舞。尤其讓我感到振奮的是,如果你比較一下2024年第一季和2023年第一季的專案儲備情況(因為這兩個季度都沒有米高梅影業,所以比較起來比較比較公平),就會發現兩個季度的儲備項目同比增長了9%。我認為這反映了Leeny在她事先準備好的演講稿中提到的一些總體趨勢。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • And when you think about the kind of the overall environment, I think you've got a couple of things going on. You've still got a constrained lending environment, certainly in the U.S. and Europe. I think at the same time though, there is more confidence in a steadier economic picture, if you will, so that we are, for example, we've seen an increase in construction starts in the U.S. at about 25% compared to a year ago. So really seeing nice pickup as people start to move forward and look at a more positive environment with perhaps not quite as much volatility.

    當你考慮整體環境時,我認為有兩個因素在運作。首先,信貸環境依然受限,尤其是在美國和歐洲。但同時,人們對經濟前景的穩定性也更有信心。例如,我們看到美國的建築開工量比去年同期增加了約25%。隨著人們開始展望未來,並著眼於一個更積極、波動性可能降低的環境,我們看到了明顯的復甦跡象。

  • And again, as Tony is always quick to remind everyone, this is a long-term business where folks are used to weathering the economic cycles and recognize that if there's a great place to put a hotel with strong demand fundamentals, it's good to get it going, especially with a beautiful new product. So from that perspective, we feel really good. We added 31,000 rooms to our pipeline in the first quarter and really had strong momentum around the world in terms of developer interest across all brands.

    正如托尼總是提醒大家的那樣,這是一個長期的行業,大家都能適應經濟週期,也明白如果找到一個需求強勁、基本面良好的酒店選址,就應該盡快開工,尤其是當酒店擁有出色的新產品時。因此,從這個角度來看,我們感覺非常好。第一季度,我們新增了31,000間客房,並且在全球範圍內,所有品牌都獲得了開發商的濃厚興趣,發展勢頭強勁。

  • Brandt Antoine Montour - Research Analyst

    Brandt Antoine Montour - Research Analyst

  • Well, that's super helpful. And then just as a quick follow-up, maybe not so quick. Tony, you mentioned that you guys gained RevPAR index. Is there any brands or regions or segments you would highlight where you're taking the most share?

    嗯,這很有幫助。然後,我想快速問一個後續問題,也許不用這麼快。東尼,你提到你們的RevPAR指數有所提升。有沒有哪些品牌、地區或細分市場,你們的市佔率佔比最高?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. So certainly, I think that the strength of our luxury footprint is an area where we continue to lengthen our [lead]. We're pleased with RevPAR Index and the substantial premium that we enjoy really across the portfolio. I think the one maybe caveat I would give you is that as our scale continues to grow, I don't know that RPI is as informative as it might have been a decade or 2 ago.

    是的。所以,我認為我們豪華酒店業務的優勢確實是一個持續擴大領先優勢的領域。我們對每間可供出租客房收入指數(RevPAR)以及我們在整個產品組合中享有的顯著溢價感到滿意。我唯一想提醒您的是,隨著我們規模的不斷擴大,零售價格指數(RPI)的參考價值可能不如十年前或二十年前那麼高了。

  • Particularly in a post-Starwood world. We've got many competitive sets now where the bulk of [asset] is our own distribution. And so I don't know that it's as relevant, but it's certainly a metric we track, and we're certainly pleased with the continued progress that we make.

    尤其是在喜達屋收購之後。我們現在有很多競爭對手,而我們自己的分銷管道佔據了大部分資產。因此,我不知道它是否還像以前那麼重要,但這無疑是我們關注的指標,而且我們對所取得的持續進展感到非常滿意。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • The only thing I'll add to it is that as we look over time, we are very pleased to see these RevPAR indices really globally and also generally in the -- within the continent at some of the strongest levels that we've seen over time. So I think it's a great sign of the power of Bonvoy and our brands to see that it's kind of consistently some of the strongest numbers that we've seen over time.

    我唯一要補充的是,從長遠來看,我們非常高興地看到,全球範圍內的RevPAR指數,以及整個非洲大陸的RevPAR指數,都達到了我們近年來見過的最強勁水平。我認為這充分體現了萬豪旅享家及其品牌的實力,這些數據持續保持在我們近年來見過的最強勁水平之一。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • And when you look at the regions of the world that are outperforming, I'll use APAC as an example. One of the powerful drivers to the strength of our index in a market like that is our leading footprint. I mean when you look across some of the best-performing markets there, having the industry's largest footprint in markets like India, Japan, South Korea is helping us drive really strong RevPAR performance.

    當我們審視全球表現優異的地區時,我以亞太地區為例。在亞太這樣的市場中,我們指數表現強勁的一個重要驅動因素是我們領先的市場佈局。我的意思是,縱觀亞太地區一些表現最佳的市場,我們在印度、日本、韓國等市場擁有業內最大的業務佈局,這幫助我們實現了非常強勁的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)業績。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

    下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的理查德·克拉克。

  • Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst

    Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst

  • Maybe just to start off with, you made a couple of comments about strong outbound travel out of the U.S. and China. How well hedged do you see yourself for that? Do those consumers stay in Marriott hotels when they travel to other cities? Or if that normalizes, does that become in a tailwind for you, if domestic travel begins to pick back up again?

    或許可以先從您剛才提到的美國和中國出境旅遊強勁成長的情況說起。您認為自身在這方面的準備有多充分?這些消費者在前往其他城市時會入住萬豪酒店嗎?或者,如果這種情況恢復正常,國內旅遊也開始復甦,這是否會對您有利?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, it's a great question. I think the way I would answer it is to point to the comments I made at the outset about the Bonvoy penetration. It is not a coincidence against the backdrop of the environment you described that we set all-time records for Bonvoy penetration, both in the U.S. and globally. And to me, the strength of the loyalty platform, combined with the breadth of our footprint in the international destinations where our guests want to travel, I think does create a tailwind for us.

    是的,這是一個很好的問題。我想我的回答會再次強調我一開始提到的萬豪旅享家會員滲透率。在您所描述的這種環境下,我們在美國和全球範圍內都創下了萬豪旅享家會員滲透率的歷史新高,這絕非偶然。在我看來,強大的會員忠誠度平台,加上我們在賓客希望前往的國際目的地的廣泛佈局,確實為我們帶來了強勁的發展動力。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • And the only thing I'll add is kind of the interesting fact that we're really essentially back to where we were in terms of cross-border penetration. And while it may vary a bit here and there, we clearly still got lower cross-border penetration in China. And we've got, in some other areas, a bit higher. I think CALA was particularly high in Q1. In the U.S., it's very steady as she goes, where we've got basically only 5% of the customers in the U.S. are coming from outside the U.S. And that broadly speaking, our global distribution is just tremendously helpful as folks find the places they want to go within our system. But that overall, a lot of the variations really don't drive that big of a change in RevPAR.

    我唯一要補充的是,跨境滲透率方面,我們基本上已經恢復到了之前的水平。雖然各地情況可能略有波動,但顯然我們在中國跨境滲透率仍然較低。而在其他一些地區,我們的滲透率則略有上升。我認為第一季 CALA 的滲透率尤其高。在美國,情況一直非常穩定,我們美國客戶中只有大約 5% 來自美國以外。總的來說,我們的全球分銷網絡發揮了巨大的作用,讓顧客能夠透過我們的系統輕鬆找到他們想去的地方。但整體而言,這些波動並不會對每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 造成太大影響。

  • Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst

    Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Maybe just as a follow-up on the loyalty comment there. One of your peers has been making I guess, a bit of noise out the fact that they think they will overtake you in terms of total loyalty members. Is that a relevant metric to you? And is any of that tech investment you're doing looking to engage a higher number of customers overall?

    好的,太好了。關於剛才提到的忠誠度問題,我想補充一點。你們的一位同行似乎在暗示,他們預計在會員總數方面會超過你們。這個指標對你們來說重要嗎?你們在科技方面的投資是否旨在吸引更多客戶?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, without a question, on the long list of loyalty metrics we look at, I think we have enthusiasm about having the industry's largest platform. But from my perspective, it goes much deeper than that. Size is important, of course. Engagement to me is a much more important facet of the program and the work that we are doing to drive that engagement through our large, powerful and growing credit card portfolio through the breadth of experiences that we offer our members, those are the powerful drivers of engagement with our members.

    毫無疑問,在我們檢視的眾多忠誠度指標中,擁有業界最大的平台無疑是最令人振奮的。但從我的角度來看,這遠不止於此。規模固然重要,但對我而言,會員參與度才是計畫更關鍵的面向。我們正致力於透過我們龐大、強大且不斷增長的信用卡組合,以及我們為會員提供的豐富體驗來提升會員參與度,而這些才是真正推動會員參與的強大動力。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • I think the penetration is, obviously, critically important as you look at making sure that you are helping your customers understand the value of the program and of all the options that they have, whether it be going to 141 countries or actually thinking about things like Ritz-Carlton Yacht and things like the Bonvoy moments that Tony talked about. So a number is a number but I think it's -- it can actually not be a true guide for the power of a program.

    我認為,滲透率顯然至關重要,因為它關係到如何幫助客戶理解項目的價值以及他們所擁有的所有選擇,無論是暢遊141個國家,還是像麗思卡爾頓遊艇和托尼提到的萬豪旅享家專屬時刻等。所以,數字固然重要,但我認為它實際上並不能真正衡量一個項目的影響力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Smedes Rhodes with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rhodes。

  • Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst

    Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask a little bit more about the trends you're seeing in the U.S. It sounds like you revised your U.S. expectations down a little bit, and it sounds like that's primarily due to the leisure component, maybe more people going abroad staying with your hotel there. And I get that your worldwide RevPAR outlook hasn't changed. But is there anything else you're seeing in the U.S. that you can share that maybe led you to expect a little bit lower coming out here nationwide for the year? Or is it all just because of what you're seeing on the leisure side?

    我想再了解您在美國觀察到的趨勢。聽起來您稍微下調了對美國市場的預期,這似乎主要是由於休閒旅遊因素,例如更多出國旅遊的人選擇入住您當地的酒店。我知道您全球的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)預期沒有改變。但是,您在美國市場還觀察到哪些其他因素,導致您預計今年全國範圍內的RevPAR會略有下降?還是說,這完全是因為休閒旅遊的原因?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • Yes. No, it's absolutely solely because of what we're seeing on the leisure side. And again, we still do expect to see that it roughly will be up a little for the year, but on the leisure side. But we do view that BT and group are absolutely as strong as we expected. And leisure is still fine. But when you look at the change, which I would say kind of broadly speaking, maybe a point lower in the U.S. than we expected a quarter ago, and maybe a little bit more than one point higher internationally kind of gets us to roughly the same place from a RevPAR picture globally.

    是的。不,這完全是因為我們在休閒旅遊方面看到的情況。我們仍預計今年整體休閒旅遊業務會略有成長。但我們認為BT和集團的整體表現完全符合預期。休閒旅遊業務目前狀況良好。但從整體來看,美國市場可能比我們上個季度的預期低了一個百分點,而國際市場可能比預期高了一個百分點多一點,這使得全球RevPAR(每間可供出租客房收入)大致與上個季度持平。

  • The other thing I'll point out is as we do expect that our [tiers] across the segments in the U.S., we do expect that they will all be up for the year in terms of RevPAR from select service all the way up through luxury. But again, to your point, yes, it was the leisure segment. It was a bit lower.

    我還要指出一點,我們預計美國各細分市場的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)今年都會有所增長,從精選服務型酒店到豪華酒店都是如此。但正如您所說,休閒酒店市場的RevPAR確實略低一些。

  • Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst

    Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And then I just wanted to ask you, you mentioned in your opening remarks a conversion-friendly brand. Could you just talk a little bit more about that, kind of what are you targeting there? And is that primarily, I guess, for the U.S. or?

    好的。然後我想問一下,您在開場白中提到了「轉換率高的品牌」。能再詳細談談嗎?你們的目標客戶群是哪些?主要是美國市場嗎?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. No, it's global. And I think while we have a terrific track record of doing conversions across many of the brands in the portfolio, when we find ourselves in an environment like this where conversions are particularly important given some of the challenges in the debt markets. We feel like our transactors are very well armed with brands like the 3 soft brand platforms. So Luxury Collection, Autograph, Tribute. Great examples where they have a level of flexibility, not on quality, but on aesthetic that is particularly appealing to a broad cross-section of the owner and franchisee community.

    當然。不,這是全球性的。我認為,儘管我們在旗下眾多品牌的轉型方面有著非常出色的記錄,但在當前這種債務市場充滿挑戰的環境下,轉型顯得尤為重要。我們相信,我們的交易商擁有像三大軟品牌平台這樣的強大資源,例如 Luxury Collection、Autograph 和 Tribute。這些平台都提供了極佳的靈活性,這種靈活性並非體現在品質上,而是體現在美學上,而這種美學對廣大業主和加盟商群體都極具吸引力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from Dan Politzer with Wells Fargo.

    謝謝。下一個問題來自富國銀行的丹‧波利策。

  • Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

    Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Leeny, I think you mentioned that within group, the Fortune 100, you've seen the strongest quarter-over-quarter growth in quite some time. Can you maybe give a little bit additional color in how that maybe compares with the small and medium-sized business customers? And maybe remind us, which typically leads the other within the cycle?

    Leeny,我記得你提到過,在財富100強企業群體中,你們實現了近年來最強勁的季度環比增長。能否再詳細說說,這與中小企業客戶的情況有何不同?另外,能否提醒我們一下,在經濟週期中,通常哪個群體會領先另一個群體?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • So a couple of things. One reminder that small and medium-sized businesses, that is probably the hardest segment to actually pinpoint all the specifics on the travel. I think you did see in Q1, you did see relatively speaking, slightly lower percentage of small- and medium-sized BT business across the portfolio, showing up in the lower end. On the special corporate on the larger company side, we absolutely continue to see recovery of that business, as you saw, for example, finance. The finance segment is now 8% up relative to 2019. You saw a really strong continued momentum in manufacturing and communications.

    有幾點要說明。首先要提醒的是,中小企業可能是最難準確掌握其差旅具體情況的市場區隔。正如您在第一季所看到的,中小企業商務旅行業務在整個投資組合中所佔的比例相對略低,處於較低水平。至於大型企業的特殊商務旅行業務,我們確實看到該業務持續復甦,例如金融領域。金融領域的業務量目前比 2019 年成長了 8%。製造業和通訊業也保持了強勁的成長勢頭。

  • And actually, while accounting, consulting and technology are still down meaningfully compared to 2019, they also continue to see meaningful momentum into Q1. When you think about the typical trends in a cycle, I think one quarter does not a trend make. We know that the month of March had some real calendar issues. And you also know that January tends to be a little online in terms of being able to determine trends because of the timing of when Christmas and New Year's are. So I think it will take a little time.

    事實上,雖然會計、顧問和科技業的業績與2019年相比仍有顯著下滑,但它們在第一季依然保持著強勁的成長動能。考慮到週期性趨勢,我認為一個季度的數據並不能代表整個趨勢。我們知道三月的日程安排確實存在一些問題。而且,由於聖誕節和新年假期臨近,一月份的業績往往不太容易反映趨勢。所以我認為還需要一些時間才能看出端倪。

  • We aren't expecting a big difference. You may remember that we used to have pre-COVID kind of a 60-40 split between classic negotiated rate versus the small and medium, but it flipped coming out of COVID. And now, I would say we're kind of more towards the 55-45 with the small and medium still being the 55%. But yes, from a relative growth perspective, we did see that it was the special corporate end of things that really grew.

    我們預計不會有太大變化。您可能還記得,在新冠疫情之前,傳統協商費率與中小企業費率的比例約為 60:40,但疫情爆發後情況發生了逆轉。現在,我認為比例更接近 55:45,中小企業費率仍然佔 55%。不過,從相對成長的角度來看,我們確實看到,真正成長的是企業特惠業務。

  • Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

    Daniel Brian Politzer - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And just for my follow-up, I think non-RevPAR fees, they were up maybe 6% in the quarter. I think you had been talking about them being down and credit card fees in there, I think you also said were up. So within that residence and timeshare and other bucket, was there a shift around in terms of the fees there from 1Q to maybe 2Q? Or is there something else that we should be aware of?

    明白了。我還有一個後續問題,我想問的是,非RevPAR費用在本季可能上漲了6%。我記得您之前提到過這些費用有所下降,而信用卡費用則有所上漲。那麼,在住宅、分時度假和其他類型的費用中,從第一季到第二季度,這些費用是否發生了變化?或是有其他需要注意的地方嗎?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • Yes. I think as you're probably familiar that our residential branding fees tend to be quite lumpy. Literally can go from $10 million, one quarter down to $3 million next quarter because as units are sold, we burn those fees. They are onetime fees on the residential sales, branding fees. So if a unit sells out, we get them all at once. So that is purely timing. For the full year perspective, we don't anticipate anything different from what we thought before.

    是的。我想您可能也知道,我們的住宅品牌推廣費用往往波動很大。例如,一個季度可能高達 1000 萬美元,而下一個季度可能只有 300 萬美元,因為隨著房屋售出,這些費用會一次性到達。這些是住宅銷售的一次性費用,也就是品牌推廣費。所以,如果一間房子全部售出,我們就能一次收到所有費用。這完全取決於時間因素。就全年而言,我們預計不會有任何與先前預期不同的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

    謝謝。下一個問題來自Raymond James公司的Bill Crow。

  • William Andrew Crow - Analyst

    William Andrew Crow - Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on Smedes' question from earlier. And Tony, you talked about normalization in U.S. demand and certainly, we've written the same thing. But industry-wide demand has been flat to down over the past year, which really doesn't seem so much as a normalization as it does a slowdown, especially given the economic growth, which is surprise to the upside. I'm just curious at what point do we start to worry about the consumer and maybe a change in spending patterns.

    我想就斯梅德斯之前提出的問題做個後續討論。東尼,你談到了美國需求的正常化,當然,我們也寫過類似的觀點。但過去一年,整個產業的需求一直持平甚至下降,這與其說是正常化,不如說是放緩,尤其考慮到經濟成長,這著實令人驚訝。我只是好奇,我們什麼時候才應該開始擔心消費者以及消費模式的改變。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. That's a fair question. I might have a deeper concern if we were reporting to U.S. & Canada, negative RevPAR. The fact that we were up 1.5% in the quarter, even with the holiday timing impact that Leeny described gives me some comfort. And if you kind of tick through the segments, leisure was flat relative to last year's first quarter, but still meaningfully ahead of where we were back in 2019.

    是的,這個問題問得好。如果我們向美國和加拿大市場報告的是負的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR),我可能會更加擔憂。但即便考慮到Leeny提到的假日影響,我們本季仍實現了1.5%的成長,這讓我感到些許安慰。而且,如果仔細分析各個業務板塊,休閒業務與去年第一季相比持平,但仍顯著高於2019年的水準。

  • In response to one of the earlier questions, I shared what I think are really encouraging statistics on the continued strength we're seeing in group. We were talking to the team yesterday that is selling -- doing advanced selling for the Gaylord Pacific project that's under construction, and they are hitting it out of the park. I mean they are seeing extraordinary volumes and demand on the Group side.

    針對先前的一個問題,我分享了一些我認為非常令人鼓舞的數據,這些數據顯示集團績效持續強勁。昨天我們和負責蓋洛德太平洋專案(Gaylord Pacific)前期銷售的團隊進行了交流,目前正在建設中,他們的銷售業績非常出色。我的意思是,他們看到了集團方面非凡的銷售量和需求。

  • And then even on business transient, I mean to me, when I think about 1 of Leeny's comments, the fact that the growth in the U.S. & Canada we saw a large corporate business with our top 100 accounts in the most sequential improvement we've seen in the last 8 quarters. I throw all of that in the blender and it does feel a little more like settling into a more normalized pattern versus a really systemic falling off the cliff.

    即使是業務波動方面,就我個人而言,當我想到Leeny的評論時,我注意到美國和加拿大市場的增長,尤其是我們前100大客戶的業務增長,這是我們過去8個季度以來最大的連續增長。我把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮,感覺更像是正在進入一種更正常的模式,而不是系統性的斷崖式下跌。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • If I can, I'm going to throw in a little bit of a glass half full relative to what I think seems like a little bit of a glass half empty question. And that is when we look at the rest of the year, we are looking both U.S. and international, like gains in both OCC and rate for the full year. We also saw that in the first quarter, you saw through luxury, premium and select, you saw that you had generally rate and OCC gains overall with the exception that in the select, you saw a slight decline in OCC..

    如果可以的話,我想就這個看似有點悲觀的問題,提出一些正面的觀點。那就是,當我們展望今年剩餘時間時,我們會關注美國和國際市場,例如全年的營運成本和費率成長。我們也看到,在第一季度,無論是豪華、高端還是精選系列,費率和營運成本總體上都有所增長,只有精選系列的營運成本略有下降。

  • But for the full year, we are expecting that we will continue to see growth. So broadly speaking, we still feel like we really benefit from these different types of travel demand. There's no doubt that we appreciate when route strengthens, when leisure quiets down a little bit, and there is overall more normalization of travel types than a couple of years ago. But when we think about the overall demand levels, we feel really good about it.

    但就全年而言,我們預計仍將保持成長。總的來說,我們仍然認為我們能從各種類型的旅行需求中受益。毫無疑問,我們樂見航線客流量的增加、休閒旅遊需求的略微下降,以及旅行類型整體上比幾年前更加正常化。但當我們考慮整體需求水準時,我們感到非常樂觀。

  • William Andrew Crow - Analyst

    William Andrew Crow - Analyst

  • That's really helpful. If I could just do a follow-up -- a quick follow-up here. I think there's been a lot of optimism that especially the summer, we'd see the inbound-outbound travel relationship in the United States kind of normalize and that would propel demand. And I'm just curious whether there's been a shift in that thinking at all since you moved on the margin, your RevPAR growth more in favor of international from domestic. Maybe a strong dollar is not helping things. Any thoughts you have there would be helpful.

    這真的很有幫助。如果可以的話,我想再補充一點──一個簡短的後續問題。我認為大家普遍樂觀地認為,尤其是在夏季,美國的入境和出境旅遊關係會逐漸恢復正常,進而推動需求成長。我很好奇,自從你們調整了RevPAR(每間可供出租客房收入)的成長策略,使國際旅遊相對於國內旅遊成長更為顯著以來,這種想法是否有所改變。或許強勢美元對情況不利。如果您有任何想法,請不吝賜教。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • I honestly couldn't quite hear the question.

    說實話,我沒聽清楚這個問題。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think the question is really just around U.S. travel versus international. I think, Bill, your comment about the continued strength of the dollar is a pretty relevant data point to consider. I was at the -- as you may or may not know, 2024 is the year of U.S.-Japan tourism. There's a big collaboration between the United States and Japan. And I met with the Japanese Ambassador on Monday of this week, and he talked about the extraordinarily strong flow of U.S. visitors to Japan and maybe innocently I asked him, how we can drive strong Japanese visitation to the U.S. And his response was, well, you can weaken the dollar against the yen.

    是的。我認為問題的關鍵在於美國國內旅遊與國際旅遊的差異。比爾,你提到的美元持續走強確實是一個非常值得關注的數據點。我參加了——你可能知道也可能不知道——2024年是美日旅遊年。美日兩國在旅遊領域有著密切的合作。本週一,我與日本大使會面,他談到了美國赴日遊客數量異常龐大,於是我可能出於好奇問他,如何才能促進日本遊客赴美旅遊?他的回答是,讓美元兌日圓貶值。

  • So I do think it's a relevant data point. It bodes well for our international distribution. And I think that is reflected in -- while our overall RevPAR guidance hasn't modified, you're seeing meaningfully more strength in the international markets for exactly that reason.

    所以我認為這是一個重要的數據點。它預示著我們的國際分銷前景良好。我認為這一點也體現在——儘管我們整體的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)預期沒有調整,但正因如此,國際市場的強勁表現才更加明顯。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • So the only other thing I'll add is that one of the interesting parts is that when you look at Asia Pacific's RevPAR, while some of that benefits from Tony's comment about U.S. traveler, a whole lot of that is the reality that now China is opening up more for cross-border. So you are seeing global travel preferences, not just U.S. travelers. Interestingly, our U.S. proportion of domestic travelers has been remarkably consistent over time, where -- it was, for many years, it was roughly only 5% are from outside the U.S. and that the domestic business is overwhelmingly 95% U.S. traveler, and that is still the case now. So we aren't seeing that the U.S. business is really suffering from everybody leaving the U.S. I think it is more the reality of global growth travel in general.

    最後要補充的是,亞太地區的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)數據很有意思。雖然托尼提到的美國遊客的影響在一定程度上推動了這一成長,但更重要的是,中國正在進一步開放跨境旅遊。因此,我們看到的是全球旅行偏好,而不僅僅是美國遊客。值得注意的是,美國國內遊客的比例一直非常穩定——多年來,美國以外的遊客僅佔約5%,而國內遊客幾乎佔95%,這種情況至今依然如此。所以,我們並沒有看到美國市場因為遊客流失而遭受損失。我認為這更反映了全球旅遊業整體成長的趨勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from David Katz with Jefferies.

    下一個問題將來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·卡茨。

  • David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure

    David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure

  • Tony, one of the last notes that you dropped in was about your forthcoming conversion brand and not to steal any thunder, but if we could borrow a couple of cracks of lightning. And just talk about sort of why, why now? What the sort of philosophical thought processes about sort of bringing that to market would be great.

    東尼,你上次留下的筆記裡提到了你即將推出的轉換品牌,我不想搶你的風頭,但如果我們能藉用時間,聊聊你為什麼要做這個品牌,為什麼是現在?關於把它推向市場的理念思考過程,那就太好了。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Of course. I think, David, you and I have had the chance to talk in the past about our overarching growth strategy, and that strategy is really guided by this desire to make sure our portfolio offers the right product everywhere our guests want to travel for every trip purpose.

    當然。我想,大衛,你我之前有機會討論過我們的整體成長策略,而這項策略的真正指導原則是確保我們的產品組合能夠為客人提供無論他們去往何處、無論他們的旅行目的是什麼,都能提供合適的產品。

  • And we learn with increasingly fluence -- increasingly frequency, excuse me, that more and more members and prospective members of Bonvoy for certain trip purposes, seek the price point and the value proposition of platforms in the mid-scale tier. The reality is, given the climate for new construction debt in the U.S. having a platform that can easily pivot between both new build and conversion opportunities, the timing seems ideal to launch something in that space. Leeny, I don't know if you want to add.

    我們越來越常了解到,越來越多的萬豪旅享家會員和潛在會員出於特定旅行目的,都在尋求中檔平台的價格和價值主張。事實上,鑑於美國新建房屋的債務環境,擁有一個能夠輕鬆兼顧新建和改建機會的平台,現在似乎是推出此類服務的理想時機。 Leeny,我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • And the only thing I would add is that a lot of this is both market research and conversations with our owners and franchisees. So when you think about the supply that's out there, where supply is growing and where it is not, we definitely believe that there is some great opportunity for us to add more new Bonvoy members, choices for them across the spectrum. And then frankly, also need owner and franchisee demand for Marriott product that allows for conversions in markets that over time may have moved and changed, et cetera.

    我唯一要補充的是,這其中許多都基於市場調查以及與業主和加盟商的溝通。所以,當我們思考現有市場供應情況,以及哪些地區供應增長緩慢時,我們堅信,我們絕對有巨大的機會來增加新的萬豪旅享家會員,並為他們提供全方位的選擇。坦白說,我們也需要業主和加盟商對萬豪產品的需求,以便在隨著時間推移而變化的市場中進行轉型等等。

  • So we think it's a tremendous opportunity. As you know, StudioRes, which is also a new mid-scale brand for us is overwhelmingly new build, and it's extended stay. And we just think from our conversations that there'll be great demand for us in this space as well.

    所以我們認為這是一個絕佳的機會。如您所知,StudioRes 也是我們新推出的中檔公寓品牌,其專案絕大多數為新建公寓,且主打長租。根據我們與客戶的溝通,我們認為這個領域對我們的產品也會有很大的需求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Robin Farley with UBS.

    下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • Great. When we think about -- I think when investors think about the algorithm for sort of top line growth, it's usually unit growth plus RevPAR growth kind of getting to your top line growth. And this quarter, that would have been the other [4 plus 7] getting to 11%, but the your top line is more up in the sort of 6% to 7% range. And is there -- anything that you would say how investors should think about that going forward? I know there's sort of different types of rooms unit, unit growth. So is that sort of RevPAR plus unit growth not the way to think about top line?

    好的。我們思考的時候-我認為投資人在考慮營收成長演算法時,通常會想到的是客房數量成長加上每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)成長來計算營收成長。而本季度,原本應該是客房數量成長加上每間可供出租客房收入成長達到11%,但實際營收成長卻在6%到7%之間。您認為投資人應該如何看待這種情況?我知道客房數量成長有很多種類型。那麼,用RevPAR加上客房數量成長來計算營收成長是不是不太適合呢?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • So a couple of things. I think, first of all, the algorithm absolutely works over time. You've got to be careful about looking quarter-to-quarter or kind of really looking at specifics that are happening in a printed number versus what the trend is over time because absolutely, over time, we believe then it proves out well.

    所以有幾點要說明。首先,我認為這個演算法從長遠來看絕對是有效的。你必須謹慎對待季度環比數據,或者過於關注某個具體數字,而忽略了長期趨勢,因為我們相信,從長遠來看,它最終會證明是行之有效的。

  • And if you think about it this year, our rooms guidance, 5.5% to 5.9% at a midpoint of 4% on RevPAR, and we've talked about gross fee revenues having a high of roughly 9%. I mean these are -- even within the year, pretty close to that algorithm. So we do believe that the algorithm works and really just have to look at it not just one year in isolation.

    如果你仔細想想今年的情況,我們的客房收入預期是每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)增長5.5%至5.9%,中位數為4%,而我們之前也提到過總費用收入最高可達9%左右。我的意思是,即使在年內,這些數據也與我們的演算法預測非常接近。所以我們確實相信這個演算法是有效的,而且我們必須從長遠角度來看待這個問題,而不能只孤立地看待某一年的情況。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just a follow-up question on conversions. I don't know what -- I don't know if you broke out the conversion percent outside of the MGM deal. Just sort of looking at the traditional conversions as a percent of total unit growth. I think that your guidance for next year assumes an acceleration in conversions as a percent of unit growth.

    好的。接下來我想問一個關於轉換率的問題。我不知道——我不知道你們是否單獨列出了除米高梅交易之外的轉換率。我只是想看看傳統轉換率佔總單位成長的百分比。我認為你們對明年的預測是基於轉換率佔單元成長百分比加速成長的假設。

  • And is this the brand that you haven't -- that you're going to launch in the mid-scale segment, you mentioned is conversion friendly. Is that, in your mind, what investors should think of as the driver for that acceleration? In conversions in '25 versus '24? Or -- and maybe there are other things that you haven't yet talked about that other brands to come or something. But just wondering if that -- if this upcoming one would be the main driver for that.

    而您即將推出的這個品牌,您之前提到過它面向中端市場,而且轉換率很高。您認為投資人應該把2025年的轉換率提升看成是推動成長的主要因素嗎?還是說,2025年的轉換率會比2024年更高?或者,也許還有其他您還沒提到的因素,例如即將推出的其他品牌等等。我只是想知道,即將推出的這個品牌是否會是推動成長的主要因素。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • So just as a reminder, conversions were roughly 30% of our signings this year in the first quarter, and we've got a very strong stream of conversions moving through the pipeline. So no, while we do see tremendous opportunity there, the kind of numbers that we've talked about and talked about last September did not include, assumed expectations, would be from this new brand on conversions. We said roughly 30% of the room adds ex-MGM would be from conversions, and we continue to believe that, but that's not really a change for us over the last couple of quarters.

    再次提醒一下,今年第一季度,轉換客戶約占我們簽約客戶的30%,而且我們目前還有大量轉換客戶正在洽談中。所以,雖然我們確實看到了巨大的機會,但我們之前討論過的數字,包括去年9月的預期,並沒有包含來自這個新品牌的轉換客戶。我們當時說過,從米高梅轉出的新增客房中,約有30%來自轉換客戶,我們仍然堅持這個觀點,但這與我們過去幾季的預期並沒有太大變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

    下一個問題將來自麥格理集團的查德·貝農。

  • Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst

    Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst

  • Two-parter for me on the -- or ahead of the domestic election. I recall last presidential election, there was a little bit of softness in D.C. as people were just kind of out hustling elsewhere. Does that factor into 4Q, should that be meaningful? Or is that meaningless? And then secondly, on that, -- is there anything kind of hinge on the election that you're looking at that could change the outlook in travel based on what you're seeing from the candidates?

    對我來說,關於國內選舉,或者說在選舉之前,有兩個方面需要考慮。我記得上次總統大選時,華盛頓特區的經濟活動略顯疲軟,因為人們都忙於其他地方的競選活動。這是否會影響第四季的市場表現?或者說,這是否有意義?其次,關於選舉,您認為候選人的言論中是否存在任何可能改變旅遊業前景的關鍵因素?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, we better add another hour to the call to take the second part of your question, I think. Maybe the way I would answer the second part of your question, the -- on a global basis, travel and tourism thrives in relative stability. I think uncertainty around the election creates all sorts of question marks. We'll get through the election and then post results. We hope we'll settle into a little bit more stability. In terms of some of the policy issues that directly impact Marriott and travel more broadly, my sense is we will likely still end up with a bit of division in Congress. So you may not see strong moves one direction or the other. And I'm sorry, your first question was on impact of the election itself in D.C., I think.

    是的。我想我們最好再延長一個小時的通話時間來回答您問題的第二部分。關於您問題的第二部分,我的回答是——從全球範圍來看,旅遊業在相對穩定的環境下蓬勃發展。我認為圍繞選舉的不確定性帶來了各種各樣的問號。我們會度過選舉期,然後公佈結果。我們希望之後能進入一個更穩定的時期。至於一些直接影響萬豪酒店和更廣泛旅遊業的政策問題,我的感覺是國會最終可能仍然會存在一些分歧。因此,您可能不會看到任何一方的強硬舉措。抱歉,我想您第一個問題是關於選舉本身對華盛頓特區的影響。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • Right. And generally speaking, I would say we do see that there is a dip in government travel after Labor Day and that group and business transient, obviously, is going to not be traveling during election week. But our forecast incorporates the experiences that we've seen before in presidential elections.

    沒錯。總的來說,勞動節後政府公務出行確實會減少,而且很顯然,團體和商務旅客在選舉週期間也不會出行。但我們的預測也參考了以往總統大選的經驗。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario with Baird.

    謝謝。下一個問題來自貝爾德公司的麥可貝利薩裡奧。

  • Michael Joseph Bellisario - Director and Senior Research Analyst

    Michael Joseph Bellisario - Director and Senior Research Analyst

  • Question on your owned assets. When might we see some of those hotels get sold, especially international? I think [they come about] an improved outlook would suggest maybe the market or at least the transaction backdrop is better there. And if not, could you expand on that? And then secondarily, any CapEx plans next year for the Sheraton in Chicago? Or should we expect a big year-over-year step down in owned CapEx?

    關於您擁有的資產,請問何時才能看到部分飯店出售,尤其是國際飯店?我認為,如果市場前景好轉,或至少交易環境有所改善,那麼出售的可能性就會增加。如果不是這樣,您能否詳細說明一下?其次,明年芝加哥喜來登酒店有任何資本支出計畫嗎?或者我們應該預期自有資本支出會比去年同期大幅下降?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Development

  • Right. So I'm going to do the second one first, which is that the Sheraton Grand Chicago it actually has had a rooms redo over the past 3 years. And so with the exception of, of course, what you normally need to do, I would not expect to see big CapEx spend beyond the norm as you move into 2025 on that hotel. We will be working on a comprehensive view of that hotel or public space, for F&B, for the rooms, et cetera.

    好的。那我先說第二個,那就是芝加哥喜來登大酒店,它在過去三年裡進行了客房翻新。所以,除了必要的維護之外,我預計到2025年,這家旅館的資本支出不會超出正常水準。我們將對飯店的公共空間、餐飲、客房等進行全面規劃。

  • And ideally, we'd be working with the partner so that you can really in essence, do it together so that it wouldn't be on Marriott's balance sheet, but that we would sell the hotel and then work towards what the hotel should look like with a partner. As you talk about the other owned leased assets, as is often the case with the ones that are still on our balance sheet, each one has a bit of a story.

    理想情況下,我們會與合作夥伴共同努力,這樣一來,酒店就不會出現在萬豪的資產負債表上,而是我們會先出售酒店,然後與合作夥伴一起制定酒店的未來發展方向。正如您提到的其他自有租賃資產,就像我們資產負債表上那些仍在列為資產的資產一樣,每一項都有背後的故事。

  • And so for the ones that are in Caribbean Latin America, for example, the elegant portfolio, which we are midway through a very comprehensive capital improvement program. We're thrilled with what is coming out of that and look forward to recycling that capital when it's done with a view of how we think about the AI, the all-inclusive product for those hotels. So continue to march along.

    例如,對於我們在加勒比海和拉丁美洲的酒店,我們目前正在進行一項非常全面的資本改善計劃,其中優雅酒店系列的改善工作已進行到一半。我們對目前的成果感到非常滿意,並期待在計劃完成後,將這些資金重新投入到我們為這些酒店提供的全包式服務中。所以,繼續前進吧!

  • The W Union Square, we're very close to being finished with that renovation. Again, absolutely thrilled with the product. I encourage all of you to go by and for sure, make sure you stop by the living room, which has a spectacular bar. The rooms are incredible, and we're very excited about how that represents the W brand in North America. And so yes, from that standpoint, before too long, we'll be beginning to work on the process of determining when and at what price is the right time for the sale of that asset.

    W Union Square酒店的翻新工程已接近尾聲。我們對最終成果非常滿意。我誠摯地邀請各位前來參觀,尤其不要錯過設有精美吧台的客廳。客房設施一流,我們對它在北美展現W酒店品牌形象的方式感到非常興奮。因此,從這個角度來看,我們很快就會開始著手確定出售該酒店的合適時機和價格。

  • All of the rest are in that same ballpark. Clearly as there appears -- starts to appear to be a bit more of a stable view about where interest rates are going, I think we do expect that, that will help free up the transaction market a bit. I think it's a little too soon to predict the timing of it, but we are, of course, hopeful that as we get into the back half of the year, you see -- start to see a bit more clarity around exactly what the next couple of years are looking like clearly, and there's a view that interest rates are likely to stay a bit higher a bit longer. And from that perspective, stability of outlook is always very hopeful when you're looking at asset sales as well as the markets that those assets are in.

    其餘的也都差不多。顯然,隨著市場對利率走向的看法逐漸趨於穩定,我們預期這將有助於放寬交易市場的限制。現在預測具體時間還為時過早,但我們當然希望,隨著下半年到來,未來幾年的市場前景能夠更加明朗,而且目前普遍認為利率可能會在一段時間內保持較高水平。從這個角度來看,在考慮資產出售以及這些資產所在的市場時,前景的穩定性總是非常令人鼓舞的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our last question will come from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

    最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

  • Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

    Duane Thomas Pfennigwerth - Senior MD

  • Saving the best for last. I like it. Just wanted to follow up on the SMB commentary at the lower-end chain scales. I know it's a much smaller percentage of your mix. But can we think about maybe the drivers or any industries that may stick out if we want to call it, drive to business travel? Maybe less goods transportation, maybe less disaster relief in some markets? I know it's harder to analyze these trends because in many cases, they book direct. But wonder if you had any industry commentary on the lower-end SMB trends.

    把最好的留到最後。我喜歡這個觀點。我只是想就低端連鎖飯店規模的中小企業分析做個補充說明。我知道它們在你們的業務組合中所佔比例很小。但如果我們想把商務旅行的驅動因素稱為“驅動因素”,那麼我們能否思考一下,有哪些因素或行業可能比較突出?例如,某些市場的貨物運輸量減少,或是災難救援需求減少?我知道分析這些趨勢比較困難,因為很多情況下,他們都是直接預訂的。但我想知道您對低端中小企業趨勢有什麼行業見解。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think it's a little hard to look at maybe individual industries. Probably the one demand source we're keeping a close eye on is government-related business, which in that tier, is quite relevant.

    是的。我覺得單獨分析各行業可能有點困難。我們目前密切關注的需求來源可能是政府相關業務,在這個層級中,它非常重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Tony Capuano for closing remarks.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給托尼·卡普阿諾,請他作總結發言。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - President, CEO & Director

  • Great. Well, thank you again for your participation and interest. We all hope to see you on the road soon. Safe travels.

    太好了。再次感謝您的參與和關注。我們都希望很快能在路上見到您。祝您旅途平安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This does conclude the Marriott International Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your line, and have a wonderful day.

    萬豪國際集團2024財年第一季財報電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了,祝您有美好的一天。