萬豪國際 (MAR) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Marriott International Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's call will be recorded, and I'll be standing by if you should need any assistance. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Jackie McConagha. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的萬豪國際集團 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話將被錄音，如果您需要任何幫助，我將隨時待命。現在我很高興將電話轉給傑基·麥科納加 (Jackie McConagha)。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Marriott's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development; and Betsy Dalmer, Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加萬豪 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Tony Capuano； Leeny Oberg，我們的財務長兼開發執行副總裁；和投資者關係副總裁 Betsy Dalmer。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Please also note that, unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy and average daily rate comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels. Statements in our comments in the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website. And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實，根據聯邦證券法被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們在 SEC 文件中所述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致未來的結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。另請注意，除非另有說明，我們的 RevPAR 入住率和平均每日房價評論反映的是可比較飯店的系統範圍內的固定匯率結果。我們在今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中的評論中的聲明僅在今天生效，並且不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們今天的評論中提到的收益發布和所有非公認會計原則財務指標的調節表。現在我將把電話轉給托尼。

Thanks, Jackie. Thank you all for joining us today. We reported terrific third quarter results this morning. Global demand for travel has remained strong and worldwide RevPAR in the quarter rose 9% versus 2022. RevPAR increased over 4% in the U.S. and Canada and 22% internationally, driven by significant gains across Asia Pacific. Robust RevPAR growth combined with nearly 5% year-over-year rooms growth resulted in adjusted EPS of $2.11, up 25% from 2022. The third quarter tends to see a seasonally higher level of leisure transient travel, which accounted for 45% of global room nights during the quarter, about 4 percentage points above the first half of the year.

謝謝，傑基。感謝大家今天加入我們。今天早上我們報告了出色的第三季業績。全球旅遊需求依然強勁，本季全球每間可用房(RevPAR) 較2022 年成長9%。在亞太地區大幅成長的推動下，美國和加拿大的每間可用房(RevPAR) 成長了4% 以上，國際成長了22%。強勁的每間客房收入增長加上近5% 的同比客房增長，調整後每股收益為2.11 美元，較2022 年增長25%。第三季度休閒短暫旅行的水平往往會出現季節性上升，佔全球休閒短暫旅行的45%該季度的間夜數比上半年高出約 4 個百分點。

Globally, demand in this segment was again quite strong with room nights up 7% over the 2022 third quarter, leading to 9% leisure transient revenue growth. In the U.S. and Canada, leisure revenues rose 4% from the year-ago quarter, even as many domestic guests travel to international locations, particularly in Europe and Asia Pacific. In the third quarter, leisure room nights from U.S. and Canadian guests traveling outside the region were up nearly 25% over the last year, when cross-border travel was still constrained by COVID related restrictions. Business transient demand accounted for 32% of global room nights in the quarter. While certain industries like technology and finance saw a nice sequential improvement in demand during the quarter.

在全球範圍內，該細分市場的需求再次相當強勁，2022 年第三季的間夜數成長了 7%，導致休閒短暫收入成長 9%。在美國和加拿大，儘管許多國內客人前往國際地點（尤其是歐洲和亞太地區）旅行，但休閒收入仍較去年同期成長 4%。第三季度，美國和加拿大客人在該地區以外地區旅行的休閒客房住宿晚數比去年同期增長了近 25%，而當時跨境旅行仍受到新冠肺炎相關限制的限制。商務短暫需求佔本季全球間夜數的 32%。雖然技術和金融等某些行業的需求在本季度出現了良好的連續改善。

The overall growth for the segment remained slow and steady with business transient revenues rising to 4% versus 2022 in the U.S. and Canada. Global group room night shares stood at 23% in the third quarter. Compared to the year ago quarter, Group revenues rose 9% globally and 5% in the U.S. and Canada. The performance of group coming out of the pandemic has been remarkable and the segment is expected to continue to be a meaningful driver of revenue growth going forward. In the U.S. and Canada, fourth quarter 2023 group revenues were pacing up 12% year-over-year at the end of September, leading to full year revenue pacing up 19%. Of course, we have the most visibility into group given the longer booking windows. We're very pleased that as of the end of the third quarter, U.S. and Canada group revenue on the books for 2024 were pacing up 14% versus 2023, driven by a 9% rise in room nights and a 5% increase in average rate.

該領域的整體成長保持緩慢而穩定，美國和加拿大的業務瞬時收入較 2022 年增長至 4%。第三季全球團體間夜份額為 23%。與去年同期相比，集團全球營收成長 9%，美國和加拿大營收成長 5%。該集團在走出疫情後的表現非常出色，預計該部門將繼續成為未來收入成長的重要推動力。在美國和加拿大，截至 9 月底，2023 年第四季集團營收年增 12%，全年營收成長 19%。當然，考慮到預訂窗口較長，我們對團體的了解程度最高。我們非常高興的是，截至第三季末，美國和加拿大集團 2024 年的帳面收入較 2023 年增長 14%，這主要得益於間夜數增長 9% 和平均房價增長 5% 。

Cross-border travel continued to strengthen, helping drive RevPAR growth in the third quarter. Asia Pacific, again, saw the most meaningful quarterly increase in international visitors, added and aided by global events like the Women's World Cup and improved airlift. The percent of global room nights from cross-border guests was about 1 percentage point below 2019 levels of approximately 20%. The most upside is still expected to come in Asia Pacific, as international airlift to China improves. International Airlift in Greater China was roughly 50% of 2019 capacity at the end of the third quarter and is expected to improve to around 60% by the end of the year.

跨境旅行持續走強，推動第三季每間客房收入的成長。在女足世界盃等全球活動和改善的空運的推動下，亞太地區的國際遊客數量再次出現最有意義的季度增長。全球跨國客人夜比例比 2019 年約 20% 的水平低約 1 個百分點。隨著飛往中國的國際空運有所改善，預計最大的上漲空間仍將出現在亞太地區。截至第三季末，大中華區的國際空運運力約為 2019 年運力的 50%，預計到年底將提高至 60% 左右。

Turning to our powerful Bonvoy Loyalty Program. We remain focused on driving membership and fostering engagement with our 192 million members through our multiyear company-wide digital and technology transformation. We are increasingly leveraging the power of our more modern platform to create more seamless, engaging digital experiences for our members. Adoption of our Marriott Bonvoy mobile app which has become the channel of choice for the majority of our elite members continues to grow, with third quarter app downloads increasing 19% versus the same quarter last year. We also continue to drive engagement through our Bonvoy collaborations, including Uber, Eat Around Town and our co-branded credit cards, which are currently in 11 countries. We're very excited about the opportunities our Bonvoy customers will receive from our MGM strategic licensing arrangement, which is now expected to launch in early 2024.

轉向我們強大的 Bonvoy 忠誠度計劃。我們仍然專注於透過我們多年的全公司數位和技術轉型來推動會員資格並促進與 1.92 億會員的互動。我們越來越多地利用更現代化平台的力量，為我們的會員創造更無縫、更具吸引力的數位體驗。萬豪旅享家行動應用程式已成為大多數精英會員的首選管道，其使用率持續增長，第三季應用程式下載量比去年同期增長了 19%。我們也繼續透過 Bonvoy 合作來推動參與度，包括 Uber、Eat around Town 和我們的聯名信用卡（目前已在 11 個國家/地區開展業務）。我們對 Bonvoy 客戶將從我們的 MGM 策略授權安排中獲得的機會感到非常興奮，該安排目前預計將於 2024 年初推出。

As we think about our net rooms growth, full year 2023 growth is now expected to be 4.2% to 4.5% higher than our previous expectation, excluding the additional 37,000 MGMs. The MGM timing shift does not impact the 3-year net rooms growth CAGR of 5% to 5.5% through 2025 that we laid out in our financial model at our September Analyst Day. We are pleased that over the next few years, our net rooms growth is anticipated to be squarely in the mid-single-digit range.

當我們考慮淨客房成長時，目前預計 2023 年全年成長將比我們之前的預期高出 4.2% 至 4.5%（不包括額外的 37,000 間米高梅酒店）。米高梅的時間轉變不會影響到 2025 年 3 年淨客房複合年增長率 5% 至 5.5%，我們在 9 月分析師日的財務模型中列出了這一點。我們很高興在未來幾年中，我們的淨客房成長預計將完全保持在中個位數範圍內。

During the quarter, our pipeline reached a new record high of nearly 557,000 rooms, a record even excluding the MGM rooms. Strong interest in conversions continues, including multiunit opportunities. Conversions represented 20% of signings and nearly 30% of openings in the quarter. As we outlined in our Analyst Day, we are very excited about the global opportunity for mid-scale. We have real momentum with the City Express brand in CALA, Four Points Express in Europe and StudioRes in the U.S. with terrific interest across the development community. We already have 10 signed letters of intent for City Express and CALA, 9 of which are in new countries for the brand. Four signed deals for Four Points Express in Turkey and in London, and we're in numerous additional discussions for both brands. And while we just recently issued the franchise disclosure documents for StudioRes, we are already in talks for deals in over 300 markets across the U.S. We expect there will be shovels in the ground for StudioRes projects in the next few months.

本季度，我們的客房數量創歷史新高，達到近 557,000 間客房，這項紀錄甚至不包括米高梅客房。對轉換的濃厚興趣仍在繼續，包括多單元機會。本季的轉會人數佔簽約量的 20%，佔空缺職位的近 30%。正如我們在分析師日中所概述的那樣，我們對中型企業的全球機會感到非常興奮。我們在 CALA 的 City Express 品牌、歐洲的 Four Points Express 和美國的 StudioRes 品牌擁有真正的動力，整個開發社群都展現了極大的興趣。我們已經為 City Express 和 CALA 簽署了 10 份意向書，其中 9 份是在該品牌的新國家/地區。四家公司在土耳其和倫敦簽署了四點快遞協議，我們正在就這兩個品牌進行大量其他討論。雖然我們最近剛發布了 StudioRes 的特許經營揭露文件，但我們已經在美國 300 多個市場就交易進行談判。我們預計 StudioRes 專案將在未來幾個月內落地。

As a global company, we are keenly aware that we are living in a time of heightened geopolitical tension. We are hard broken by the death standing loss of so many innocent lives in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Our thoughts are with everyone impacted by this tragic war as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine, and we remain hopeful for peace. I will now turn the call over to Leeny to discuss our financial results in more detail.

作為一家全球性公司，我們敏銳地意識到我們正生活在一個地緣政治緊張局勢加劇的時代。我們對以色列與哈馬斯衝突中這麼多無辜者喪生感到心碎。我們與所有受到這場悲慘戰爭以及烏克蘭持續戰爭影響的人同在，我們仍然對和平抱持希望。我現在將把電話轉給 Leeny，更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Tony. Our strong third quarter results reflect solid momentum in our business around the world and came in ahead of our expectations. As Tony noted, worldwide RevPAR grew 9%, above the top end of our guidance, led by meaningful gains in Asia Pacific. Global occupancy in the quarter reached 72%, 3 percentage points higher than a year ago and global ADR continued to rise, growing 4%. Total company gross fee revenues totaled $1.2 billion, in line with our guidance and 13% above the prior year quarter. Fees would have been higher given our RevPAR performance but for the negative impact of the wildfires in Maui, which primarily affected our IMFs. Total IMF still grew meaningfully, rising 35% to $143 million in the quarter, international IMFs rose nearly 60%, benefiting from another quarter of significant RevPAR increases in Asia Pacific. .

謝謝你，托尼。我們強勁的第三季業績反映了我們在全球業務的強勁勢頭，並且超出了我們的預期。正如托尼指出的那樣，在亞太地區顯著增長的帶動下，全球每間可用收入增長了 9%，高於我們指導的上限。本季全球入住率達 72%，比去年同期高 3 個百分點，全球 ADR 持續上升，成長 4%。公司總費用收入總計 12 億美元，與我們的指引一致，比去年同期成長 13%。考慮到我們的 RevPAR 表現，如果沒有毛伊島野火的負面影響（這主要影響了我們的國際貨幣基金組織），費用將會更高。 IMF 總額仍顯著成長，本季成長 35%，達到 1.43 億美元，國際 IMF 成長近 60%，受益於亞太地區 RevPAR 又一個季度的大幅成長。 。

Our non-RevPAR-related franchise fees grew 8% to $208 million, boosted by another strong quarter for our co-brand credit cards, partially offset by lower residential branding fees. Co-brand credit card fees rose 11% in the quarter driven by another quarter of robust global card spend and new card acquisitions. Our owned leased and other revenue, net of direct expenses, reached $70 million in the quarter, given continued improved performance at our owned and leased hotels. With the operating leverage inherent in our business, adjusted EBITDA rose 16% to $1.14 billion. After another quarter of meaningful share buybacks, diluted adjusted EPS grew 25% year-over-year to $2.11.

我們的非RevPAR相關特許經營費成長了8%，達到2.08億美元，這得益於我們的聯合品牌信用卡又一個強勁的季度，但部分被住宅品牌費用的下降所抵消。由於全球信用卡支出又一個季度強勁以及新卡收購，本季聯合品牌信用卡費用上漲了 11%。由於我們自有和租賃酒店的業績持續改善，我們的自有租賃和其他收入（扣除直接費用）在本季度達到 7000 萬美元。憑藉我們業務固有的營運槓桿，調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 16%，達到 11.4 億美元。經過另一季有意義的股票回購後，稀釋調整後每股盈餘年增 25% 至 2.11 美元。

Our powerful asset-light business model continues to generate a large amount of cash and our capital allocation philosophy has not changed. We're committed to our investment-grade rating investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value while returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend and share repurchases.

我們強大的輕資產商業模式持續產生大量現金，我們的資本配置概念並沒有改變。我們致力於投資等級評級，投資於能夠增加股東價值的成長，同時透過適度的現金股利和股票回購相結合的方式將多餘的資本回饋給股東。

In the first 9 months of this year, we returned $3.4 billion to shareholders. Over the last 7 years, which included 2 years of no share repurchases as a result of COVID, we have reduced our outstanding share count by 23%, while at the same time investing meaningfully in innovation and growth.

今年前 9 個月，我們向股東返還 34 億美元。在過去 7 年裡，其中包括因新冠疫情而沒有進行任何股票回購的 2 年，我們已將流通股數量減少了 23%，同時在創新和成長方面進行了有意義的投資。

Now let's talk about our fourth quarter and full year 2023 outlook, the full details of which are in our earnings press release. While there is heightened geopolitical risk and continued macroeconomic uncertainty, the consumer is still generally holding up well and our forward bookings through the end of the year in most regions around the world remain solid. We're raising our full year RevPAR guidance to incorporate the better-than-anticipated third quarter results as well as higher expectations for the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, RevPAR growth is expected to remain higher internationally than in the U.S. and Canada, where we've seen a return to more normal seasonal patterns and year-over-year RevPAR growth is stabilizing.

現在讓我們談談我們對 2023 年第四季和全年的展望，詳細資訊請參閱我們的收益新聞稿。儘管地緣政治風險加大，宏觀經濟不確定性持續存在，但消費者整體仍保持良好狀態，我們在全球大多數地區的年底前預訂量仍然穩定。我們正在提高全年 RevPAR 指導，以納入好於預期的第三季業績以及對第四季度的更高預期。第四季度，國際上的 RevPAR 成長預計將繼續高於美國和加拿大，我們已經看到美國和加拿大恢復到更正常的季節性模式，並且 RevPAR 同比增長趨於穩定。

We now anticipate fourth quarter RevPAR growth of 3% to 4% in the U.S. and Canada and 14% to 16% internationally. This would lead to global RevPAR growth of 6% to 7.5% in the fourth quarter and 14% to 15% for the full year. We now expect full year total gross fee revenues could rise 17% to 18% with fourth quarter gross fees benefiting a bit from the higher RevPAR expectation. This is expected to be partially offset by lower expected residential branding fees due to anticipated completion of certain projects slipping into next year as well as a bit softer results in Israel and surrounding countries. We started to see some cancellations and softer demand for our 5 hotels in Israel as well as for the 27 hotels in Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt. Fees for these 4 countries made up less than 1% of total company gross fees in full year '22.

我們目前預計美國和加拿大第四季的 RevPAR 將成長 3% 至 4%，國際成長 14% 至 16%。這將導致第四季度全球 RevPAR 成長 6% 至 7.5%，全年成長 14% 至 15%。我們現在預計全年總費用收入可能會成長 17% 至 18%，第四季總費用將因較高的 RevPAR 預期而略有受益。由於某些項目預計將於明年完工，以及以色列及週邊國家的業績稍微疲軟，預計住宅品牌費用較低，預計將部分抵銷此影響。我們開始看到以色列的 5 家酒店以及黎巴嫩、約旦和埃及的 27 家酒店出現一些預訂取消和需求疲軟的情況。這 4 個國家的費用佔 22 年全年公司總費用的比例不到 1%。

We've not seen a meaningful impact on demand in the rest of the Middle East. We're keeping a close eye on the situation and working closely with our teams on the ground as events unfold. Total non-RevPAR-related fees are expected to increase around 5% for the full year. benefiting from credit card fees rising roughly 10%, thanks to robust growth in average spend in the number of cardholders, partially offset by meaningfully lower residential branding fees this year versus our peak levels in 2022. Residential fees are tied to the sales of new units and tend to be lumpy as projects enter sales and closing spaces.

我們尚未看到中東其他地區的需求受到重大影響。我們正在密切關注事態發展，並隨著事態的發展與我們的現場團隊密切合作。全年非 RevPAR 相關費用預計將增加 5% 左右。由於持卡人平均支出的強勁增長，信用卡費用上漲約 10%，但與 2022 年峰值水平相比，今年住宅品牌費用大幅下降，部分抵消了這一影響。住宅費用與新單元的銷售掛鉤當項目進入銷售和關閉空間時，往往會變得不穩定。

Owned leased and other net is now expected to be around $330 million for the full year. At the low end of our previous guidance range primarily due to the restructuring of an existing lease on a hotel in New York that recently flipped to franchise. We expect 2023 G&A expenses to be around $935 million at the high end of our prior range primarily due to higher compensation and legal expenses and to a lesser extent, MGM integration costs. Compared to 2022, full year adjusted EBITDA could increase 19% to 20% and adjusted EPS could rise 27% to 28%. We expect to return between $4.3 billion and $4.5 billion to shareholders for the full year 2023. This now assumes full year investment spending of $900 million to $950 million, which includes the $100 million spent on the acquisition of the City Express brand portfolio.

目前預計全年自有租賃及其他淨額約為 3.3 億美元。我們先前指導範圍的低端主要是由於對紐約一家酒店的現有租賃進行了重組，該酒店最近轉為特許經營。我們預計 2023 年的一般管理費用約為 9.35 億美元，處於我們先前範圍的高端，這主要是由於薪酬和法律費用較高，以及較小程度上的米高梅整合成本。與 2022 年相比，全年調整後 EBITDA 可能成長 19% 至 20%，調整後每股盈餘可能成長 27% 至 28%。我們預計 2023 年全年將向股東回報 43 億至 45 億美元。現在假設全年投資支出為 9 億至 9.5 億美元，其中包括用於收購 City Express 品牌組合的 1 億美元。

As we've discussed with our major technology transformation, Technology spending will be elevated this year and over the next few years, though this investment is overwhelmingly expected to be reimbursed over time. As we look into 2024, we continue to be enthusiastic about healthy global lodging demand for our brands and our strong pipeline growth. While we are still in the middle of putting together our property budgets for 2024, we believe the modeled global RevPAR range for 2024 of 3% to 6% we discussed at September Security Analyst Meeting is appropriate. Thank you for your interest in Marriott. Tony and I are now happy to answer your questions.

正如我們在重大技術轉型中所討論的那樣，今年和未來幾年的技術支出將會增加，儘管絕大多數人預計這項投資會隨著時間的推移而得到補償。展望 2024 年，我們持續對我們品牌的健康全球住宿需求和強勁的通路成長充滿熱情。雖然我們仍在製定 2024 年的房地產預算，但我們認為我們在 9 月的安全分析師會議上討論的 2024 年全球可售房收入模型範圍為 3% 至 6% 是合適的。感謝您對萬豪酒店的關注。托尼和我現在很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

Tony and Leeny, I just wanted to maybe start with the development side. Obviously, the pipeline number was very strong. It did look like in construction number, I think, slipped very modestly quarter-on-quarter. So could you maybe help -- first of all, just comment, big picture, Tony, on what you're seeing on the development side, particularly in the U.S.? And then secondarily, just have any comments on how we should expect maybe that in construction portion to evolve just as, again, the development environment kind of levels off here a little bit.

東尼和利尼，我只是想從開發方面開始。顯然，管道數量非常強大。我認為，建築數量確實環比小幅下滑。那麼你能幫忙嗎——首先，托尼，就你在發展方面看到的情況（尤其是在美國）發表評論，總體情況？其次，請對我們應該如何期望建構部分的發展發表任何評論，就像開發環境在這裡稍微趨於平穩一樣。

Sure. Shaun, I'll try to talk maybe macro and then I might ask Leeny to chime in with some perspective on the financing climate, particularly here in the U.S. and maybe some perspective on Europe because those tend to be the two markets where our development partners rely most heavily on conventional debt financing in the markets where we're seeing the most constriction in the availability of financing for new construction. With that said, the ebb and flow under construction is both good and bad, right, as hotels open and we had a good quarter of openings. You see under construction hotels beat the pipeline because they enter the system that's opening hotels, and that's good news for us. We have talked over the last couple of quarters about albeit a steady increase in the number of construction starts, which is good news for us, but that constriction in the debt markets that I talked about, precluding us from getting back to where we were prepandemic in terms of the pace of new construction starts, particularly here in the U.S.

當然。肖恩，我會嘗試談談宏觀方面的問題，然後我可能會請Leeny 談談對融資環境的一些看法，特別是在美國，也許還有一些對歐洲的看法，因為這往往是我們的發展合作夥伴所在的兩個市場在市場上，我們最依賴傳統的債務融資，而在這些市場上，新建築的融資供應最為緊張。話雖如此，建設中的潮起潮落既有好也有壞，對吧，隨著酒店開業，我們有一個很好的季度開業。您會看到在建酒店的數量超過了待建酒店，因為它們進入了開設酒店的系統，這對我們來說是個好消息。在過去的幾個季度中，我們一直在談論儘管建築開工數量穩步增加，這對我們來說是個好消息，但我談到的債務市場的緊縮使我們無法回到大流行前的水平就新建築開工的速度而言，尤其是在美國

At the same time, we are encouraged by the continued increase in the pace of conversion activity both on individual conversions and portfolio conversions. And I think it's that increased pace, coupled with a steady improvement in construction starts that gives us confidence in reaffirming the multiyear net unit growth numbers we shared with you last month during the Security Analyst Conference. And maybe with that, I'll ask Leeny to just give a little more color on the financing environment.

同時，我們對個人轉化和投資組合轉化活動的持續成長感到鼓舞。我認為，正是這種加快的步伐，加上開工建設的穩步改善，讓我們有信心重申我們上個月在證券分析師會議上與大家分享的多年淨單位增長數據。也許就此而言，我會請 Leeny 為融資環境提供更多的資訊。

Yes, sure. So a couple of comments overall, Shaun. One is just a reminder that the under construction component of our pipeline, also very typically includes conversions that may be going through some element of renovation before they open. And so it's not quite the same as pre-Covid, which had a lower percentage of conversions for the company overall. So as we've talked about before, we would expect, for example, perhaps roughly 30% of the openings in 2024 to be from conversions, which means they can be in the pipeline a bit differently than the classic new build timing for being in the pipeline. So I think the nature of the under-construction pipeline could be perhaps a little bit different than pre-Covid. But as Tony was describing, you've clearly got the reality that in Asia Pacific and a number of other markets, there is meaningfully less dependent on the debt markets. And those markets are seeing much more stereotypical signings and progress into rooms under construction. While in the U.S., what you see is that there is clearly still an open financing market for strong brands, strong market locations, demonstrated developer success and in those, we are absolutely continuing to see that the financing is happening and that the rooms are getting under construction.

是的，當然。肖恩，總的來說，有幾點評論。一個只是提醒我們，我們管道的正在建設部分通常還包括在開放之前可能會經歷一些翻新工作的轉換。因此，這與新冠​​疫情爆發前不太一樣，新冠疫情爆發前，公司整體的轉換率較低。因此，正如我們之前討論過的，例如，我們預計 2024 年大約 30% 的空缺職位將來自轉換，這意味著它們的籌備時間可能與經典的新建項目時間略有不同。管道。因此，我認為正在建造的管道的性質可能與新冠疫情之前略有不同。但正如托尼所描述的那樣，您已經清楚地了解到亞太地區和許多其他市場對債務市場的依賴明顯減少的現實。這些市場正在看到更多傳統的簽約和在建房間的進展。在美國，你看到的是，顯然仍然存在一個開放的融資市場，有強大的品牌、強大的市場地位、開發商的成功經驗，在這些方面，我們絕對會繼續看到融資正在發生，房間也越來越多建設中。

The main difference, I would say, is they're taking a bit longer to actually get under construction. But as we kind of look going forward, the ones that are getting under construction are moving forward and then opening right on time. So as Tony said, overall, we're pleased to see the net rooms growth, for example, that we actually raised a bit for 2023 are reflecting continued strong demand for our brands and also rooms getting finished and open as well as really strong signings going into the pipeline. So overall, we're actually quite pleased on the new rooms front.

我想說，主要的區別是它們需要更長的時間才能真正開始建造。但當我們展望未來時，那些正在建設中的項目正在向前推進，然後準時開放。因此，正如托尼所說，總體而言，我們很高興看到淨客房增長，例如，我們實際上為2023 年籌集了一些資金，這反映出對我們品牌的持續強勁需求，以及客房的竣工和開放以及真正強勁的簽約進入管道。總的來說，我們對新房間非常滿意。

Our next question will come from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

We'll take our next question from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林 (Stephen Grambling) 提出的下一個問題。

I would love if you could put a little bit more meat on the bone for the 2024 RevPAR commentary. Specifically, if you can give any color on how you're thinking through North America versus other regions and how these assumptions may impact incentive management fees or other fees in the next year?

如果您能為 2024 年 RevPAR 評論提供更多內容，我會很高興。具體來說，您是否可以說明您對北美與其他地區的看法，以及這些假設可能如何影響明年的激勵管理費或其他費用？

Yes, sure. Thanks very much. As I've mentioned in my comments, we continue to feel good about the 3% to 6% range that we discussed at the Security Analyst Meeting. It's worth noting, however, Stephen, that we are smack in the middle of the process of building the budgets at the hotel level and moving up. So we're not prepared to give kind of formal guidance at this point. But when we look broadly speaking, at seeing continued demand for travel, and as we talk about in the U.S., we would expect that, that will remain in this more normalized seasonal patterns that we've now come to see. You've seen our guidance for Q4 being 3% to 4%, which reflects that. But we've got some basic strong fundamentals, low supply growth for several years, which looks to continue to be the way going into '24 and that's reflected in our higher percentage of conversions. And we do expect to see another year of strong growth in our special corporate rate on top of very strong growth in that rate in '23. As we talked about in seeing our group pace, which is up 14%, that's actually got strong both rooms growth as well as strong rate growth in the U.S. which does also bode well for continued sustainability in ADR.

是的，當然。非常感謝。正如我在評論中提到的，我們仍然對安全分析師會議上討論的 3% 到 6% 的範圍感到滿意。然而，值得注意的是，史蒂芬，我們正處於製定酒店級別預算並向上推進的過程中。因此，我們目前不准備提供正式指導。但當我們從廣義來看，看到持續的旅行需求時，正如我們在美國談論的那樣，我們預計，這將保持在我們現在看到的更正常化的季節性模式中。您已經看到我們對第四季度的指導為 3% 到 4%，這反映了這一點。但我們有一些基本面強勁的基本面，多年來供應增長緩慢，這看起來將繼續成為進入 24 世紀的方式，這反映在我們更高的轉換百分比上。我們確實預計，除了 23 年特別企業稅率的強勁成長之外，我們還將看到另一年的強勁成長。正如我們所談到的，我們的集團成長了 14%，這實際上實現了兩個房間的強勁成長以及美國的強勁成長率，這也預示著 ADR 的持續可持續性。

And I'll probably throw in one extra, which is that in luxury you probably remember, we talked about that having in Q2, our RevPAR was down ever so slightly in our luxury U.S. and Canada properties just down by 1% in Q2, but that actually moved positive again in Q3 and was actually up 2%. So if I put all those together, and of course, this does depend greatly on the overall macroeconomic conditions, and we will need to see where that goes. But given what we looked at right now, we continue to feel good about the fundamentals.

我可能會多補充一點，那就是在奢侈品方面，您可能還記得，我們​​在第二季度談到過，我們在美國和加拿大的豪華房產的RevPAR 略有下降，第二季度僅下降了1% ，但事實上，第三季再次出現正值，成長了 2%。因此，如果我把所有這些放在一起，當然，這在很大程度上取決於整體宏觀經濟狀況，我們需要看看情況會如何發展。但考慮到我們現在的情況，我們仍然對基本面感覺良好。

Our next question will come from Smedes Rose with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose。

Given those comments you've made with sort of like kind of a peak into '24. I guess, I wanted to ask you about maybe how we should think about capital return. I mean is it fair to assume that you would try to reach a lease level seeing this year and maybe more given the cash flow. The average levels still remain below longer-term targets.

考慮到你發表的這些評論，有點像是 24 世紀的高峰。我想，我想問你我們應該如何考慮資本回報。我的意思是，假設您今年會嘗試達到租賃水平，考慮到現金流可能會更高，這是公平的嗎？平均仍低於長期目標。

I think at this stage of the game, since we're really working through all of the budget work and kind of looking at investment spending, et cetera. Again, the broad guidelines that we provided at the Security Analyst Meeting remain consistent. You will remember that we talked about an expectation of having the Sheraton Grand Chicago put to Marriott in '24, which will be a use of cash, we would expect at the end of '24, and that was on top of the investment spending levels that were more normalized. But I think the philosophy, Smedes remains exactly the same, which is to say, we do like where we are in terms of our credit ratios being at the lower end of our adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDAR and would expect to remain in that territory given the various kind of uncertainties that are out there. But other than that, the basic equation that you have seen us use for quite a number of years, I would expect to be similar, which would then result in substantial amounts of capital being returned to our shareholders.

我認為在遊戲的這個階段，因為我們確實正在完成所有預算工作，並且正在考慮投資支出等。同樣，我們在安全分析師會議上提供的廣泛指導方針仍然保持一致。您會記得，我們​​談到了希望在 24 年將芝加哥喜來登大酒店交給萬豪酒店，這將使用現金，我們預計在 24 年底，這超出了投資支出水平那些更加正常化。但我認為，Smedes 的理念仍然完全相同，也就是說，我們確實喜歡我們的信貸比率處於調整後債務與調整後 EBITDAR 的下限，並且預計將保持在該水平，因為存在的各種不確定性。但除此之外，我們多年來使用的基本方程式，我希望是相似的，這將導致大量資本返還給我們的股東。

Our next question will come from David Katz with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自傑弗里斯的大衛·卡茨。

Question earlier. I appreciate it. I wanted to ask something a bit more strategic because there's been so much noise around the lower-end chain scales and the competitive landscape there and the competition for conversions and the launch of new brands, et cetera, that we've all heard. I'd love to talk about your strategy and where you are focusing more of your resources competitively? And is that just based on the assets that you have, is that strategic thought, where are you putting more of your attention into your growth?

早些時候提問。我很感激。我想問一些更具策略性的問題，因為圍繞低端連鎖規模和競爭格局、轉換競爭和新品牌推出等方面存在太多噪音，我們都聽說過。我很想談談你們的策略以及你們將更多的資源集中在哪些方面？這是否僅僅基於您擁有的資產，戰略思想，您將更多的注意力放在您的成長上？

Great question. Maybe the way I would answer that is I'd like to describe those discussions as ever being binary. We don't look at it and say, let's pivot our focus away from our luxury leadership for instance, towards focus on mid-scale. They are not mutually exclusive. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, we are very excited about the early returns of the focused resources we've put against our entry into mid-scale. The fact that we're already seeing letters been signed for City Express even in almost 10 new countries that we've got signed deals very early in the launch of Four Points Express, and we've got hundreds of identified markets for StudioRes. Almost as the ink is drying on the FDD here in the U.S. And so that's extraordinarily exciting for us. But that does not require us to hit the pause button on extending our lead in the very valuable luxury segment. And so that's a long-winded way of saying our strategy is to continue to strengthen our leadership position in luxury and upper upscale while expanding our growth potential in a new segment for us, which is midscale. And so as we've rolled out mid-scale, you've got products like City Express which I think at least initially, will be largely new build. I think the same is true for StudioRes.

很好的問題。也許我會回答這個問題，我想將這些討論描述為二元的。我們不會看著它並說，讓我們將注意力從奢侈品領導轉移到中端市場。它們並不互相排斥。正如我在開場白中提到的，我們對進入中期規模所投入的重點資源的早期回報感到非常興奮。事實上，我們已經在四點快車推出之初就在近 10 個新國家/地區看到了與 City Express 簽署的信件，並且我們已經為 StudioRes 確定了數百個市場。幾乎就在美國 FDD 上的墨水即將乾燥的時候，這對我們來說非常令人興奮。但這並不要求我們暫停擴大我們在非常有價值的奢侈品領域的領先地位。因此，這是一種冗長的說法，我們的策略是繼續加強我們在奢侈品和高端高檔領域的領導地位，同時擴大我們在中檔新細分市場的成長潛力。因此，當我們推出中型產品時，你會得到像 City Express 這樣的產品，我認為至少在最初，這些產品將主要是新建的。我認為 StudioRes 也是如此。

On the other hand, if you look at a platform like Four Points Express, we think there are extraordinary opportunities to roll out conversions under that platform. And as we mentioned during the analyst presentation, we will continue to look at every market we operate in and determine is there an opportunity for mid scale? And if so, is it a new build opportunity, a conversion opportunity or both?

另一方面，如果你看看像四點快遞這樣的平台，我們認為在該平台下有絕佳的機會推出轉換。正如我們在分析師演講中提到的，我們將繼續關注我們經營的每個市場，並確定是否有中型規模的機會？如果是這樣，這是一個新建機會、一個轉換機會還是兩者兼而有之？

Am I permitted a follow-up. I would ask about the mid-scale stuff just to be clear that you're not finding that you have to do more either in hard and soft cost in order to capture deals there and the competition level is not intensifying meaningfully or noticeably there at all, right?

我是否可以進行後續行動？我想問中等規模的事情，只是為了明確一點，你沒有發現你必須在硬成本和軟成本方面做更多的事情才能在那裡獲得交易，而且競爭水平根本沒有有意義或明顯地加劇， 正確的？

No. I mean, obviously, it's early, but what I will tell you is we have a pretty extraordinary group of franchise partners who are bringing with excitement about our entry into this tier. And we're engaged with them on every continent talking about opportunities for mid-scale. So we don't find ourselves from a deal term perspective or a capital participation perspective doing anything out of the ordinary.

不。我的意思是，顯然，現在還為時過早，但我要告訴你的是，我們有一群非常出色的特許經營合作夥伴，他們對我們進入這一級別感到興奮。我們與各大洲的他們接觸，討論中型企業的機會。因此，從交易條款的角度或資本參與的角度來看，我們沒有發現自己做了任何不尋常的事情。

Our next question will come from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的羅賓法利。

I wanted to ask about unit growth next year, and I know you're not giving specific guidance yet. But if we used the CAGR when you thought MGM was going to be in 2023, it kind of implied that each of the next 2 years would be in the 4% to 5% range. So with MGM kind of shifting into 2024, is it would something then in that sort of 6% to 7.5% range, right, just kind of adding MGM into 4% to 5%. Is that the range we should think about for unit growth next year?

我想問一下明年的單位增長情況，我知道你們還沒有給出具體的指導。但是，如果我們在您認為米高梅將在 2023 年實現複合年增長率時使用複合年增長率，那就意味著接下來的兩年每年都會在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內。因此，隨著米高梅進入 2024 年，它的成長率是否會在 6% 到 7.5% 的範圍內，對吧，只是將米高梅增加到 4% 到 5%。這是我們明年應該考慮的單位成長範圍嗎？

Sure. So thanks, Robin. As we talked about in our comments and at the Security Analyst Meeting, I think when you've got a deal like MGM or City Express, things can be a little lumpy in terms of the specific year-over-year rooms growth. And so I do think it's much more important to be looking more broadly at the 2- to 3-year CAGR sort of numbers. And there, clearly, with the 2.4% higher room count over the result of MGM. That's obviously going to help 2024s number a lot. And you saw that our 2023 number came down, although it actually went up apart from MGM compared to a quarter ago. So I think the main thing I would focus on is that we continue to feel really good about the 5% to 5.5% net rooms growth over the '22 through '25 time period and we will obviously, as we get to full budget details when we get to February, we'll be more specific. But I think, again, the basic earnings equation and growth model of the company is exactly as we described in September at the Security Analyst Meeting.

當然。所以謝謝，羅賓。正如我們在評論和安全分析師會議上談到的那樣，我認為當你達成像米高梅或城市快車這樣的交易時，就具體的同比客房增長而言，情況可能會有點不穩定。因此，我確實認為更廣泛地關注 2 至 3 年複合年增長率這類數字更為重要。很明顯，房間數量比米高梅的結果高出 2.4%。這顯然對 2024 年的數字有很大幫助。你看到我們 2023 年的數字下降了，儘管與季度前相比，除了米高梅之外，它實際上有所上升。因此，我認為我要關注的主要事情是，我們繼續對22 年至25 年期間5% 至5.5% 的淨客房增長感到非常滿意，而且顯然，當我們獲得完整的預算詳細信息時，我們會感到非常滿意。到了二月，我們會更具體。但我再次認為，該公司的基本獲利方程式和成長模型與我們在 9 月的證券分析師會議上所描述的完全一樣。

Okay. I guess, so it sounds like you're saying your expectations for unit growth outside of MGM for next year have not changed, right? Is that the conclusion.

好的。我想，聽起來你是說你對明年米高梅以外的單位成長的預期沒有改變，對吧？這就是結論嗎。

Again, as I described, we have talked about continuing to feel very confident about the 3-year 5% to 5.5% and are pleased to see the 2023 number move up a quarter of a point compared to a quarter ago. But we are in the middle of that process as we speak, and we'll be able to be more specific when we get to February.

正如我所描述的，我們再次談到對 3 年 5% 至 5.5% 的成長充滿信心，並很高興看到 2023 年的數字比四分之一前上升了四分之一個百分點。但正如我們所說，我們正處於這個過程的中間，到了二月我們將能夠更加具體。

We'll take our next question from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

我們將回答理查德·克拉克和伯恩斯坦提出的下一個問題。

Just firstly, on the incentive management fees. It looks like in the North American market, down it's just 23%. Those look like those are down year-on-year. Is that all down to this Hawaii effect? Maybe you can just clarify exactly what that effect was? Or is there some other discretion in there about how much you've accrued for the quarter. And if I can add a little follow-up, I just want to know if the MGM delay has that any impact on anything other than the, NUG guidance, i.e., has that impacted your EBITDA guidance for Q4 as well.

首先，關於激勵管理費。北美市場看起來只下降了23%。這些看起來比去年同期有所下降。這都是夏威夷效應造成的嗎？也許你可以確切澄清一下效果是什麼？或者還有其他關於您本季應計金額的自由裁量權。如果我可以補充一點後續內容，我只想知道 MGM 的延遲是否會對 NUG 指導以外的任何其他方面產生影響，即是否也影響了第四季度的 EBITDA 指導。

You're a little money on the kind of the actual call on kind of some of your some of the words. So let me try to see what I can do -- i could do with what you asked. On -- let's just talk broadly speaking on IMFs, which is to say that overall for the company, we are up meaningfully in U.S. and Canada year-to-date Q3, $194 million compared to $221 million for the full year in 2022. So I would say we're going to end up higher and meaningfully higher than in 2019. And we were impacted, as we talked about from the Maui fires and our IMFs by close to $10 million, which obviously are going to impact your IMF. So -- when I think about the percentage of hotels that are earning incentive fees in the U.S. and Canada, we had -- let's say, year-to-date, U.S. and Canada is 31%, and that compares to year-to-date in '22, of 26% and so I think from that standpoint, we're really pleased with the margin work that's been done in the U.S. and frankly, around the world. The only other thing I'll point out is that IMFs for the year at $537 million year-to-date are higher than IMFs for the full year in 2022 already just through 3 quarters. So again, the margins there I think, show really well. Was there a second.

你對你的一些話的實際呼籲有點錢。所以讓我試著看看我能做什麼——我可以按照你的要求去做。讓我們廣泛地談論 IMF，也就是說，總體而言，對於公司而言，今年第三季度我們在美國和加拿大的業務大幅增長，達到 1.94 億美元，而 2022 年全年為 2.21 億美元。我想說，我們最終會比2019 年更高，而且明顯更高。我們受到了影響，正如我們談到的毛伊島火災和我們的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF) 的損失接近1000 萬美元，這顯然會影響你們的國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)。因此，當我考慮在美國和加拿大賺取獎勵費的酒店百分比時，我們可以說，今年迄今為止，美國和加拿大的酒店比例為 31%，而與去年同期相比，截至22 年，佔26% ，所以我認為從這個角度來看，我們對美國乃至世界各地所做的保證金工作感到非常滿意。我要指出的另一件事是，今年迄今的國際貨幣基金組織規模為 5.37 億美元，僅比 2022 年全年國際貨幣基金組織規模高出三個季度。再說一遍，我認為那裡的利潤率表現得非常好。還有第二次嗎？

And then Richard, I think on your second question, if I heard it right, the way you want to think about the brief delay and the integration of MGM is the way you described it, if I can hear you clearly, which is that's principally an impact on the timing of the NUG impact the impact on fees or EBITDA, that was your question, is to minimis.

然後理查德，我想關於你的第二個問題，如果我沒聽錯的話，你想考慮短暫的延遲和米高梅整合的方式就是你所描述的方式，如果我能聽清楚的話，這主要是對 NUG 時間的影響對費用或 EBITDA 的影響，這是你的問題，是最小化的。

That was my question. Thanks very much for clarifying.

這就是我的問題。非常感謝您的澄清。

We'll take our next question from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

我們將回答麥格理查德·貝農 (Chad Beynon) 提出的下一個問題。

Just in terms of the group booking trends, I believe you said 9% for '24 in terms of the number of rooms. We're still trying to get a sense if some of the current and future bookings are deferred or catch-up or if this is becoming kind of the new norm, kind of the foundational level. So any color in terms of multiyear bookings maybe into '25 or if you've been able to kind of crack that code if this is the new base level of group.

就團體預訂趨勢而言，我相信您所說的 24 年客房數量為 9%。我們仍在試圖了解當前和未來的一些預訂是否被推遲或趕上，或者這是否正在成為一種新的規範，一種基本水平。因此，多年預訂方面的任何顏色都可能進入 25 年，或者如果這是團體的新基礎級別，您已經能夠破解該代碼。

I'll talk about a couple of stats, and then Tony may want to add anything kind of from a more broad perspective. Just one thing that's worth noting is that group is back to being about the same percentage of our business that it was pre coded. So very squarely for almost 1/4 of the business is related to group. So I think you are seeing it normalizing there. And the numbers that we've talked about in U.S. and Canada up 14%. That's obviously on a business that is really settled down into more normal seasonal pattern rather than still having lots of revenge travel. I think one of the interesting things is there, while some of the special corporate business has not returned in exactly the same form that it was pre-COVID I think there is also the reality that companies are recognizing the value of getting together and are doing it in groups, maybe not in quite the same way they were doing some business transient. So when you look at the overall proportion of the business, it is really leisure and business transient that was swapped a little bit while group remains quite consistent to the way it was pre-COVID.

我將討論一些統計數據，然後托尼可能想從更廣泛的角度添加任何內容。值得注意的一件事是，該集團在我們業務中所佔的比例已恢復到與預編碼時相同的比例。因此，幾乎 1/4 的業務與集團相關。所以我認為你會看到它正在正常化。我們談到的美國和加拿大的數字成長了 14%。顯然，這是一家真正適應更正常的季節性模式的企業，而不是仍然有大量的報復性旅行。我認為有趣的事情之一是，雖然一些特殊的企業業務並沒有以與新冠疫情爆發前完全相同的形式回歸，但我認為還有一個現實，即企業正在認識到團結起來的價值，並且正在這樣做成群結隊地進行，也許與他們做一些短暫的生意的方式不太一樣。因此，當你看一下業務的整體比例時，你會發現休閒和商務的短暫性發生了一些變化，而群體仍然與新冠疫情之前的情況相當一致。

And maybe the only other color I would add, while it doesn't speak to '25. In my opening remarks, I talked about group revenue growth in the quarter, both globally and for the U.S. and Canada. And as Leeny and I have been traveling around the world. I mean, one of the things that's really encouraging is this continued forward booking strengths we're seeing in group is not simply a U.S. and Canada phenomenon. We're seeing strong pickup around the world.

也許是我唯一會添加的其他顏色，雖然它與 25 無關。在我的開場白中，我談到了本季全球以及美國和加拿大的集團收入成長。 Leeny 和我一直在世界各地旅行。我的意思是，真正令人鼓舞的事情之一是，我們在團體中看到的持續的提前預訂優勢不僅僅是美國和加拿大的現象。我們看到世界各地的強勁復甦。

Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾·貝利薩裡奧和貝爾德。

I just want to dig into group a little bit more. Could you maybe pull out corporate group meetings and incentive travel? And are you seeing the same strength there? And is there any change maybe in the booking window that reflects some more of the layoff announcements that we've seen recently more broadly?

我只是想更深入地了解團體。您能否取消公司團體會議和獎勵旅行？你在那裡看到同樣的力量嗎？預訂窗口是否有任何變化反映了我們最近更廣泛地看到的更多裁員公告？

No particular trends of notice relative to kind of your point about more kind of some trends in companies. We do have longer group booking windows overall which reflect the fact that people are finding that the hotels are full and then they need to get their groups on the books. So that part remains consistent. I would not say that we see any kind of notable difference between leisure group and business group either kind of in the past several months or, frankly, over the last several years, there is a steady diet of both of those.

與您關於公司更多趨勢的觀點相比，沒有特別值得注意的趨勢。總體而言，我們確實有更長的團體預訂窗口，這反映出人們發現酒店已滿，然後他們需要將團體預訂起來。所以這部分保持一致。我不會說我們在過去幾個月中看到休閒團體和商業團體之間有任何顯著差異，或者坦白說，在過去幾年中，這兩者都有穩定的飲食。

Our next question will come from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題將由比爾·克勞和雷蒙德·詹姆斯提出。

Tony, there's a difference between normalization in leisure demand and the consumer weakening. And I guess, given your broad scope across price points and globally, where are you seeing the consumer weaken?

托尼，休閒需求正常化和消費者疲軟之間是有區別的。我想，考慮到您在價格點和全球範圍內的廣泛範圍，您認為消費者在哪裡減弱？

Well, on a macro basis, the consumer continues -- we continue to see fairly consistent strength in the consumer. We've seen a little bit of trade down. We obviously compete across price points. But as Leeny pointed out in response to one of the earlier questions, in the third quarter, we saw some strength in rate in the luxury tier, which suggests that maybe that's an ebb and flow as opposed to a multi-quarter trend. We do think there is a value-driven consumer that perhaps we were not capturing before, which is one of the reasons we're so enthusiastic about entering the mid-scale tier for the first time. We think that's a segment of the traveling public that perhaps we have been priced out of capturing fully in the past. But beyond that, we continue to see strength really across the consumer. The one thing that's going to be really interesting to watch. I think I mentioned in my opening remarks, that we're within a percentage point of getting back to pre-pandemic levels of cross-border travel. And you'll recall, we had lots of good conversations back and forth in '19 and about emerging middle classes in markets around the world and their appetite for cross-border travel, much of the recovery we've seen in international markets has been on the shoulders of domestic demand. And as international airlift recovers, one of the things we're watching closely is how strong is that middle-class consumer and how strong has their appetite for cross-border travel looks like.

嗯，從宏觀角度來看，消費者的需求仍在繼續——我們繼續看到消費者的實力相當穩定。我們看到貿易有所下降。我們顯然在價格點上進行競爭。但正如 Leeny 在回答之前的一個問題時指出的那樣，在第三季度，我們看到奢侈品牌的利率有所上升，這表明這可能是一種潮起潮落，而不是多季度的趨勢。我們確實認為存在一個我們以前可能沒有抓住的價值驅動型消費者，這也是我們如此熱衷於首次進入中端市場的原因之一。我們認為，這是旅遊大眾的一部分，也許我們過去因價格過高而無法充分捕捉到這群人。但除此之外，我們繼續看到消費者的真正實力。有一件事非常值得一看。我想我在開場白中提到，我們的跨國旅行距離恢復到疫情前的水平只有一個百分點。你可能還記得，我們​​在 19 年進行了很多關於世界各地市場的新興中產階級及其對跨境旅行的胃口的良好對話，我們在國際市場看到的復甦大部分是由於在內需的肩膀上。隨著國際空運的恢復，我們密切關注的一件事是中產階級消費者的實力有多強，以及他們對跨境旅行的胃口有多大。

I realize that's a bit of a round [plug] answer. But I mean, we're watching the strength of the consumer around the world. And most of what we're seeing is either encouraging or wait and see. And I think wait and see applies to that cross-border question, but the early returns are encouraging.

我意識到這個答案有點圓滑。但我的意思是，我們正在觀察世界各地消費者的實力。我們所看到的大部分情況要么令人鼓舞，要么觀望。我認為觀望適用於這個跨境問題，但早期的回報令人鼓舞。

The only thing I would add is that if this trend around experiences versus goods, which we continue to see a really positive element of demand. So whether it is for music concerts or professional sports games or for youth athletics or all of those pieces of people's lives that -- that continues to be a great driver of demand for travel and really is quite global. So again, kind of a realization on the part of people that travel as a fundamental part of life and one that is very much appreciated.

我唯一要補充的是，如果這種圍繞著體驗與商品的趨勢，我們繼續看到需求的真正積極因素。因此，無論是音樂會、職業運動比賽、青少年運動還是人們生活中的所有這些——這仍然是旅行需求的巨大推動力，而且確實是全球性的。再說一次，人們意識到旅行是生活的基本組成部分，並且非常值得讚賞。

And Bill, just to build on that point. As we talk to our credit card partners who obviously have rich consumer spending data, the trend that Leeny just described was much more prevalent in the younger generations pre-pandemic. When you look at current credit card spending data, it appears that that's a trend that really spans generations now, which is obviously great news for our business.

比爾，只是為了建立這一點。當我們與信用卡合作夥伴交談時，他們顯然擁有豐富的消費者支出數據，李尼剛才描述的趨勢在疫情大流行前的年輕一代中更為普遍。當你查看當前的信用卡支出數據時，你會發現這種趨勢確實跨越了幾代人，這對我們的業務來說顯然是個好消息。

Our next question comes from Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

I just wanted to talk a little bit about your expectation for a recovery in large managed corporate. You talked about solid gains in lagging industries in the third quarter. Just curious on how your long-term expectation has changed on large manage? Like I realize that small and medium has been quite strong, but is a full recovery in large manage still possible at this point?

我只是想談談您對大型管理企業復甦的期望。您談到了第三季落後行業的強勁成長。只是好奇您對大型管理的長期期望有何變化？就像我意識到中小型企業已經相當強大，但大型企業目前是否仍有可能全面復甦？

Yes. So we've had a version of this conversation in the past. It often starts with a question, do you think business travel is permanently impaired? And I'll give you a version of the answer I've given in the past, which is I absolutely don't think travel is permanently impaired. I just think it's going to look a little different. The small and medium we've talked about at (inaudible) that has been recovered now for a number of quarters and continues to show strength. There are a number of factors that are impacting some of the big corporates, whether that be concerns they have about macroeconomic conditions, whether that be sustainability goals that they set for themselves, whatever it might be, it is having some impact on the pace at which their travel volumes recover. But we're seeing offsets to that impact on the strengths that you heard Leeny described in group. We're also seeing offsets in the amount of blended travel that's driving, for instance, the extraordinary recovery, excuse me, we saw on Sundays and Thursdays. And so I think that -- the day of the week looks a little different. The segments look a little different, but the overall volumes are quite encouraging.

是的。所以我們過去有過這樣的對話的一個版本。它通常以一個問題開始：您認為商務旅行會受到永久性損害嗎？我會給你一個我過去給出的答案的版本，那就是我絕對不認為旅行會受到永久性的損害。我只是覺得它看起來會有點不同。我們所討論的中小型企業（聽不清楚）現在已經恢復了幾個季度，並繼續展現實力。有很多因素正在影響一些大企業，無論是他們對宏觀經濟狀況的擔憂，還是他們為自己設定的可持續發展目標，無論是什麼，都會對他們的步伐產生一些影響。他們的旅行量恢復了。但我們看到這種影響對你在小組中聽到 Leeny 描述的優勢有所抵消。我們還看到混合旅行數量的抵消，例如，抱歉，我們在周日和周四看到了非凡的復甦。所以我認為——一周中的某一天看起來有點不同。這些細分市場看起來略有不同，但整體銷量相當令人鼓舞。

Our next question comes from Meredith Jensen with HSBC.

我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Meredith Jensen。

I was wondering if you could discuss a little bit about partnerships like Rappi and is that kind of collaboration might be a model for additional partnerships that we'll see going forward? And any color you could give to that and how that might compare to others.

我想知道您是否可以討論一下像 Rappi 這樣的合作關係，這種合作是否可能成為我們未來看到的其他合作夥伴關係的模式？以及你可以賦予它的任何顏色以及它與其他顏色的比較。

Yes. Great question. The short answer is I hope so. Bonvoy is such an extraordinarily powerful platform for us. It's a platform that strengthens the connectivity to our guests, ties together the breadth of our brand portfolio and partnerships like Rappi give us greater stickiness with the platform and allow us to connect more deeply in the case of Rappi in markets like Latin America. They have to make sense for both sides to be obvious, but Bonvoy gives us a terrific opportunity to explore, create and take advantage of those sorts of partnerships. And so we will absolutely continue to look for those sorts of opportunities.

是的。很好的問題。簡短的回答是我希望如此。 Bonvoy 對我們來說是一個非常強大的平台。這個平台加強了與客人的聯繫，將我們品牌組合的廣度與Rappi 等合作夥伴關係聯繫在一起，使我們對該平台具有更大的粘性，並使我們能夠透過Rappi 在拉丁美洲等市場建立更深入的聯繫。它們必須對雙方都有意義，才能顯而易見，但 Bonvoy 為我們提供了一個絕佳的機會來探索、創建和利用此類合作夥伴關係。因此，我們絕對會繼續尋找此類機會。

At this time, we have no further questions in queue. I'll now turn the call back over to Tony Capuano to close this out. Please go ahead.

目前，我們隊列中沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給托尼·卡普阿諾以結束此事。請繼續。

Great. well, thank you again for all your interest and great questions this morning. We appreciate your continued interest in Marriott and look forward to seeing you on the road. Have a great afternoon.

偉大的。好的，再次感謝大家今天早上提出的所有興趣和重要問題。感謝您對萬豪酒店的持續關注，並期待在路上見到您。祝你有個愉快的下午。

This does conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。