萬豪國際 (MAR) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call may be recorded.

大家好，歡迎來到今天的 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to turn the program over to Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Jackie Burka.

現在我很高興將該計劃移交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Jackie Burka。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Marriott's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎來到萬豪 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。今天與我通電話的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tony Capuano；我們的首席財務官兼發展部執行副總裁 Leeny Oberg；和我們的投資者關係副總裁 Betsy Dahm。

I will remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Please also note that unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy and average daily rate comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels.

我會提醒大家，我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實，根據聯邦證券法被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致未來的結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異。另請注意，除非另有說明，否則我們的 RevPAR 入住率和平均每日房價評論反映了可比酒店在系統範圍內的恆定貨幣結果。

Statements in our comments in the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中的評論聲明僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際事件的展開而更新。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們今天的評論中提到的所有非 GAAP 財務措施的收益發布和對賬。

And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

現在我將把電話轉給托尼。

Thank you, Jackie, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We announced excellent first quarter results, reflecting continued momentum in our business around the world. While the timing of demand recovery has varied across regions, depending on COVID policies, it is clear that post-pandemic, people have a deep appreciation for travel. As the largest global lodging company, with properties in 138 countries and territories, a diverse portfolio of amazing brands and our award-winning Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program, we are proud to connect people through the power of travel.

謝謝你，傑基，感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們公佈了出色的第一季度業績，反映了我們全球業務的持續發展勢頭。雖然需求恢復的時間因地區而異，具體取決於 COVID 政策，但很明顯，在大流行後，人們對旅行有了深刻的認識。作為全球最大的酒店公司，在 138 個國家和地區擁有酒店、多元化的品牌組合和屢獲殊榮的萬豪旅享家忠誠度計劃，我們很自豪能夠通過旅行的力量將人們聯繫起來。

First quarter global RevPAR rose 34% versus 2022, driven by significant recovery in Asia Pacific and strong growth across the rest of our regions. Worldwide occupancy reached 65%, up 11 percentage points higher than the year ago quarter. Global ADR grew 11%, demonstrating our continued focus on driving rate. While macroeconomic uncertainty persists, it has not weighed on travel demand to date. In fact, demand continued to rise across all customer segments in the quarter. Forward bookings are solid. Though our transient booking window is still short term at around 3 weeks, so trends could change relatively quickly.

第一季度全球 RevPAR 較 2022 年增長 34%，這主要得益於亞太地區的顯著復甦以及我們其他地區的強勁增長。全球入住率達到 65%，比去年同期高出 11 個百分點。全球 ADR 增長了 11%，表明我們繼續關注駕駛率。儘管宏觀經濟的不確定性依然存在，但迄今為止並未對旅遊需求造成壓力。事實上，本季度所有客戶群的需求都在持續增長。遠期預訂很穩定。雖然我們的臨時預訂窗口仍然是短期的，大約 3 週，因此趨勢可能會相對快速地改變。

Global leisure demand and ADR are still incredibly robust. Following a year with leisure demand already well above pre-pandemic levels, first quarter transient room nights for the segment increased 12% with ADR rising 8% year-over-year. Group demand was also very strong in the quarter. In the U.S. and Canada, group revenue for full year 2023 was pacing up 26% to 2022 at the end of the quarter, a significant improvement from group pace at the end of last year.

全球休閒需求和 ADR 仍然非常強勁。在休閒需求已經遠高於大流行前水平的一年之後，該細分市場第一季度的短暫間夜增加了 12%，ADR 同比增長了 8%。本季度的團體需求也非常強勁。在美國和加拿大，截至本季度末，2023 年全年集團收入增長 26% 至 2022 年，與去年年底的集團收入相比有了顯著改善。

For the second through fourth quarter of this year, group room nights were pacing up 9% with rate up 7%, leading to revenues pacing up 16% year-over-year. U.S. and Canada business transient demand saw a modest additional recovery in the quarter. ADR rose meaningfully primarily due to solid special corporate rate increases.

今年第二至第四季度，團體間夜量增長 9%，增長率為 7%，導致收入同比增長 16%。美國和加拿大的商業瞬態需求在本季度出現了溫和的額外復甦。 ADR 顯著上升主要是由於特別公司利率的強勁增長。

First quarter U.S. and Canada business transient revenues surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic began. And [total] cross-border travel has continued to rise globally. However, it is still a few hundred basis points below 2019 when guests traveling abroad accounted for nearly 20% of total room nights. Additional upside is expected to come primarily from Asia Pacific given international airlift to and from China is still well below pre-pandemic levels.

自大流行開始以來，第一季度美國和加拿大的業務瞬態收入首次超過 2019 年的水平。並且 [總] 跨境旅行在全球範圍內繼續上升。然而，這仍比 2019 年低幾百個基點，當時出國旅遊的客人佔總間夜量的近 20%。鑑於進出中國的國際空運量仍遠低於大流行前的水平，預計額外的上漲空間將主要來自亞太地區。

We are focused on strengthening our Marriott Bonvoy loyalty platform by continuing to grow our membership base, which reached 182 million members at the end of March and enhancing engagement with these valuable customers. Our co-branded credit cards with offerings in 9 countries performed well again this quarter. Global Card acquisitions [sold] 35% year-over-year while global card spend increased 16%.

我們專注於通過繼續擴大我們的會員基礎（截至 3 月底達到 1.82 億會員）並加強與這些重要客戶的互動來加強我們的萬豪旅享家忠誠度平台。我們在 9 個國家提供的聯名信用卡本季度再次表現出色。全球卡購買 [售出] 同比增長 35%，而全球卡支出增長 16%。

To engage with our customers, we are increasingly leveraging our digital platforms which are highly profitable channels for our owners. Those digital channels had a record first quarter. On a year-over-year basis, mobile app users grew 31%, digital room nights rose 17% and digital revenues climbed 26%.

為了與我們的客戶互動，我們越來越多地利用我們的數字平台，這對我們的所有者來說是高利潤的渠道。這些數字渠道在第一季度創下了紀錄。與去年同期相比，移動應用用戶增長了 31%，數字間夜數增長了 17%，數字收入增長了 26%。

Turning to development. We still expect gross rooms growth of around 5.5% this year and net rooms growth of 4% to 4.5%. While we are keeping a close eye on the financing environment, as Leeny will discuss in her remarks, we do anticipate returning to a mid-single-digit net rooms growth in the next few years. We were pleased to close the City Express transaction just yesterday, welcoming roughly 17,000 rooms in the Caribbean and Latin American region, or CALA, into our portfolio. City Express is an incredible launchpad to jump-start our entry into the high-growth moderately priced mid-scale space. We see meaningful opportunity to expand the brand in CALA as well as in other locations around the world.

轉向發展。我們仍然預計今年的總客房增長率約為 5.5%，淨客房增長率為 4% 至 4.5%。在我們密切關注融資環境的同時，正如 Leeny 將在她的講話中討論的那樣，我們確實預計在未來幾年內將恢復到中等個位數的淨客房增長。我們很高興就在昨天完成了 City Express 交易，歡迎加勒比和拉丁美洲地區 (CALA) 的大約 17,000 間客房加入我們的投資組合。 City Express 是一個令人難以置信的發射台，可以啟動我們進入高增長、價格適中的中檔空間。我們看到了在 CALA 以及世界其他地方擴展品牌的重要機會。

Our industry-leading pipeline stood at approximately 502,000 rooms at quarter end, with 57% of those rooms in international markets and about 200,000 rooms under construction. Strong interest in conversions continues, including multiunit opportunities. Conversions represented nearly 30% of signings in the quarter and 25% of openings.

截至季度末，我們行業領先的客房數量約為 502,000 間，其中 57% 的客房位於國際市場，約 200,000 間客房正在建設中。對轉換的濃厚興趣仍在繼續，包括多單元機會。轉換佔本季度簽約的近 30% 和空缺的 25%。

I'll now turn the call over to Leeny to discuss our financial results in more detail.

我現在將電話轉給 Leeny，以更詳細地討論我們的財務業績。

Thank you, Tony. Our first quarter results reflected robust demand growth around the world with all regions and all hotel tiers posting solid performance. U.S. and Canada RevPAR grew 26% year-over-year; occupancy reached 66%, up 8 percentage points, while ADR rose 10% versus the year ago quarter. International RevPAR rose a remarkable 63% over the '22 first quarter with ADR rising 16%. Occupancy reached 64%, an 18 percentage point improvement versus the prior year quarter.

謝謝你，托尼。我們第一季度的業績反映了全球需求的強勁增長，所有地區和所有級別的酒店都表現強勁。美國和加拿大的 RevPAR 同比增長 26%；入住率達到 66%，上升 8 個百分點，而 ADR 比去年同期上升 10%。 22 世紀第一季度國際 RevPAR 增長了 63%，ADR 增長了 16%。入住率達到 64%，比去年同期提高 18 個百分點。

Demand was strong in all international markets with particularly impressive improvement in Asia Pacific after travel restrictions were lifted. RevPAR in Greater China was 95% recovered to pre-pandemic levels in the quarter and Mainland China was more than fully recovered. This is all the more notable given that demand in the quarter was overwhelmingly driven by domestic travelers as international airlift was still less than 20% of 2019 capacity at the end of March.

取消旅行限制後，所有國際市場的需求都強勁，亞太地區的需求增長尤其顯著。本季度大中華區的 RevPAR 已恢復到大流行前水平的 95%，而中國大陸則完全恢復。考慮到本季度的需求主要由國內旅客推動，這一點更加值得注意，因為截至 3 月底，國際空運仍不到 2019 年運力的 20%。

As you will recall, around 1/4 of room nights in Greater China were from international guests pre-pandemic. International flights to and from China are slowly being added, although airlift is only expected to be around 40% of 2019 levels in the second quarter.

您可能還記得，大中華區大約 1/4 的間夜來自大流行前的國際客人。往返中國的國際航班正在緩慢增加，但預計第二季度空運量僅為 2019 年水平的 40% 左右。

Total gross fee revenues totaled $1.1 billion, nearly 40% above the prior year quarter with a meaningful rise in incentive management fees, or IMF. IMF nearly doubled compared to 2022 to $201 million. They also tops the first quarter of 2019 by 23%, with every region except for Greater China, earning more incentive fees than in the 2019 first quarter.

總費用收入總計 11 億美元，比上年同期增長近 40%，激勵管理費 (IMF) 顯著增加。與 2022 年相比，IMF 幾乎翻了一番，達到 2.01 億美元。它們也比 2019 年第一季度高出 23%，除大中華區外，每個地區的獎勵費用都比 2019 年第一季度多。

Our non-RevPAR-related franchise fees also grew meaningfully once again totaling $197 million, up 16% year-over-year, primarily due to co-branded credit card fees rising 18%. Containing cost remains a focus at both the corporate and the hotel level. In the U.S. and Canada, margins at our managed hotels rose 2 percentage points versus the 2022 first quarter, and they remain above 2019 margin levels. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.1 billion, a new quarterly record despite the first quarter being the seasonally slowest quarter of the year.

我們的非 RevPAR 相關特許經營費也再次顯著增長，總計 1.97 億美元，同比增長 16%，這主要是由於聯名信用卡費用增長 18%。控製成本仍然是企業和酒店層面的焦點。在美國和加拿大，我們管理的酒店的利潤率比 2022 年第一季度上升了 2 個百分點，並且仍高於 2019 年的利潤率水平。調整後的 EBITDA 總計 11 億美元，創下季度新紀錄，儘管第一季度是今年季節性最慢的季度。

Now let's talk about our 2023 outlook, the full details of which are in our earnings press release. With the better-than-expected first quarter results and robust global booking trends, we're raising our full year guidance. Macroeconomic uncertainty is not impacting our short-term demand and trends across all customer segments remain strong. The second quarter is expected to benefit from particularly strong year-over-year growth in international markets, especially in Asia Pacific.

現在讓我們談談我們的 2023 年展望，其全部細節都在我們的收益新聞稿中。憑藉好於預期的第一季度業績和強勁的全球預訂趨勢，我們提高了全年業績指引。宏觀經濟的不確定性並未影響我們的短期需求，所有客戶群的趨勢依然強勁。預計第二季度將受益於國際市場尤其是亞太地區特別強勁的同比增長。

However, there is less visibility in forecasting the company's financial performance for the second half of the year. The high end of the range reflects relatively steady global economic conditions throughout the remainder of 2023 with continued resilience of travel demand across all customer segments and markets. The low end of the range reflects a meaningful softening of the global economy in the second half of the year with worldwide RevPAR in the last 2 quarters, roughly flat compared to 2022.

不過，對公司下半年財務業績的預測可見度較低。該範圍的高端反映了在 2023 年剩餘時間內全球經濟狀況相對穩定，所有客戶群和市場的旅行需求持續保持彈性。該範圍的低端反映了今年下半年全球經濟明顯疲軟，過去兩個季度全球 RevPAR 與 2022 年相比大致持平。

For the full year, RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada could grow 6% to 9% and international RevPAR could grow 22% to 25%, leading to global RevPAR rising 10% to 13%. Total fees for the full year could rise between 13% and 16% with a non-RevPAR-related component increasing 4% to 7%. Non-RevPAR fee growth is expected to benefit from higher credit card fees resulting from growth in average spend and in the number of cardholders.

全年，美國和加拿大的 RevPAR 可能增長 6% 至 9%，國際 RevPAR 可能增長 22% 至 25%，導致全球 RevPAR 增長 10% 至 13%。全年總費用可能增長 13% 至 16%，其中與 RevPAR 無關的部分增長 4% 至 7%。非 RevPAR 費用增長預計將受益於平均支出和持卡人數量增長導致的更高信用卡費用。

We still expect G&A expenses of $915 million to $935 million, an annual increase of 3% to 5%, but still below 2019 levels. Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 13% and 18%, and adjusted EPS could rise 19% to 26% above 2022.

我們仍預計 G&A 費用為 9.15 億美元至 9.35 億美元，年增長率為 3% 至 5%，但仍低於 2019 年的水平。全年調整後的 EBITDA 可能增長 13% 至 18%，調整後的每股收益可能比 2022 年增長 19% 至 26%。

Our powerful asset-light business model continues to generate a great deal of cash. In the first quarter, our net cash provided by operating activities was around $890 million, and we returned over $1.2 billion to shareholders through the end of March. Our capital allocation philosophy has not changed. We're committed to our investment-grade rating, investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value while returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend and share repurchases.

我們強大的輕資產業務模式繼續產生大量現金。第一季度，我們經營活動提供的現金淨額約為 8.9 億美元，截至 3 月底，我們向股東返還了超過 12 億美元。我們的資本配置理念沒有改變。我們致力於我們的投資級評級，投資於增加股東價值的增長，同時通過適度的現金股息和股票回購相結合，將多餘的資本返還給股東。

For the full year, we still expect 2023 investment spending of $850 million to $1 billion. This includes $100 million through the just completed acquisition of the City Express brand portfolio as well as higher-than-typical investment in our customer-facing technology, which is overwhelmingly expected to be reimbursed over time.

對於全年，我們仍預計 2023 年的投資支出將達到 8.5 億至 10 億美元。這包括通過剛剛完成的對 City Express 品牌組合的收購獲得的 1 億美元，以及對我們面向客戶的技術的高於典型的投資，預計這些投資將隨著時間的推移得到補償。

With the increase in our adjusted EBITDA forecast, we now expect to return between $3.6 billion and $4.1 billion to shareholders in 2023.

隨著我們調整後的 EBITDA 預測的增加，我們現在預計 2023 年將向股東回報 36 億美元至 41 億美元。

On the development front, we are sure many of you have questions about the banking environment in the U.S. and in Europe, in particular. Given rapidly rising interest rates, the financing environment in these regions has been challenging for some time. Another element of uncertainty has now been added as some banks wait for more clarity around capital requirements and perhaps additional regulations. However, while there are challenges with lending, especially for new construction projects, deals that have committed financing continue to move forward. Additionally, the number of deals leaving the pipeline is not increasing. Fallout in the quarter was around 1.5% below our historical average of just over 2%. We're closely monitoring the situation and the regulatory response but we do expect the tightening in hotel financing to be short term. As we have seen over time, hotel financing has proven to be quite resilient over the long term. Hotel loans have been among the better-performing sectors of commercial real estate lending of late as hotels continue to post excellent operating results.

在發展方面，我們相信你們中的許多人對美國和歐洲的銀行業環境有疑問，尤其是。鑑於利率迅速上升，這些地區的融資環境在一段時間內一直充滿挑戰。現在又增加了另一個不確定性因素，因為一些銀行在等待資本要求和可能的額外法規更加明確。然而，儘管貸款面臨挑戰，尤其是對於新建設項目，承諾融資的交易仍在繼續推進。此外，離開管道的交易數量並沒有增加。本季度的影響比我們略高於 2% 的歷史平均水平低 1.5% 左右。我們正在密切關注形勢和監管部門的反應，但我們確實預計酒店融資收緊是短期的。正如我們隨著時間的推移所看到的那樣，酒店融資已被證明在長期內具有相當大的彈性。隨著酒店繼續公佈出色的經營業績，酒店貸款一直是近來表現較好的商業房地產貸款行業之一。

I'll now turn the call back over to Tony, who has a few more comments before we go to Q&A.

我現在將電話轉回給托尼，在我們進行問答之前，他還有一些評論。

Thanks, Leeny. Before we open up for questions, I just want to pause for a moment and thank our team of associates around the world who continue to do such outstanding work and are a key reason that our year is off to such a strong start. They are remarkable. I'm also excited to let you all know that we plan to hold our first Analyst Day since early 2019 at the W South Beach in Miami on Wednesday, September 27. We will open registration for that event in June. And we look forward to seeing you in South Florida and sharing a deeper dive on our business with you this fall.

謝謝，利尼。在我們開始提問之前，我只想暫停片刻，感謝我們在世界各地的同事團隊繼續做著如此出色的工作，這是我們今年開局如此強勁的一個關鍵原因。他們很了不起。我也很高興地告訴大家，我們計劃於 9 月 27 日星期三在邁阿密 W South Beach 舉辦自 2019 年初以來的第一個分析師日。我們將在 6 月開放該活動的註冊。我們期待在今年秋天與您在南佛羅里達州相見，並與您更深入地探討我們的業務。

So now Lenny and I are happy to answer your questions.

所以現在 Lenny 和我很樂意回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們將從摩根大通的 Joe Greff 那裡回答我們的第一個問題。

What's that to us was obviously the -- I mean it was a good quarter overall. What's that to us was the incentive management fee performance in the 1Q and the comment you made that it was driven or IMF outside of China or above 2019 levels, China just below. Can you talk about China IMF expectations for the balance of this year and how you think about IMF growth relative to [base] and franchise and other fees growth?

對我們來說，這顯然是——我的意思是這是一個整體上很好的季度。對我們來說，第一季度的激勵管理費表現以及您發表的評論是中國以外的 IMF 或高於 2019 年水平，中國僅次於此。您能否談談中國 IMF 對今年餘額的預期，以及您如何看待 IMF 相對於 [base] 和特許經營及其他費用增長的增長？

So sure. So let me just kind of set the stage a little bit, and that is that you -- we talked about the fact that IMF's essentially doubled Q1 over Q1. And certainly, a huge part of that was driven by Asia Pacific in their great RevPAR recovery. So again, broadly speaking, if you call it, $100 million increase in IMF, about $30 million to $40 million of that came from Asia Pacific. So definitely, with a disproportionate increase in RevPAR relative to the rest of the world, they were a big provider. As you know, Joe, generally, our incentive fees in Asia Pacific do not include an owner's priority. So they tend to be not quite as lumpy in terms of the way that they return. So we would expect, as you see incentive fees for the remainder of this year, to continue to show that characteristic. And I guess the best way to put it is that if we hit the high end of our guidance, you could expect to see incentive fees globally actually surpass the peak levels that we had in 2019.

所以肯定。因此，讓我稍微設置一下舞台，那就是你 - 我們談到了國際貨幣基金組織第一季度基本上翻了一番的事實。當然，其中很大一部分是由亞太地區的 RevPAR 復甦推動的。因此，從廣義上講，國際貨幣基金組織增加 1 億美元，其中約 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元來自亞太地區。因此，毫無疑問，隨著 RevPAR 相對於世界其他地區的不成比例的增長，他們是一個大供應商。如你所知，喬，一般來說，我們在亞太地區的獎勵費用不包括所有者的優先權。因此，就返回方式而言，它們往往不那麼粗糙。因此，正如您在今年剩餘時間看到的獎勵費用，我們預計將繼續顯示出這一特徵。我想最好的說法是，如果我們達到指導的高端，你可以預期全球的激勵費用實際上會超過我們在 2019 年的峰值水平。

And then the only other thing that I'll point out is that, obviously, our managed rooms, which make up about 550,000 rooms out of 1.5 million, over 75% of them are full-service rooms. So as you see the strength in both group and returning business transient and continued leisure demand, I think that bodes well for IMF.

然後我要指出的唯一另一件事是，很明顯，我們的管理房間佔 150 萬個房間中的約 550,000 個房間，其中超過 75% 是提供全方位服務的房間。因此，當你看到團體和返回業務的短暫和持續休閒需求的力量時，我認為這對 IMF 來說是個好兆頭。

And then, Leeny, the only thing I might add for Joe's benefits since his question was specific to China, we did see in the quarter, Joe, that Mainland China RevPAR was fully recovered to 2019 levels. But remember, the vast majority of that recovery was domestic demand. At the end of the quarter, only about 20% of the international airlift in China has recovered. I think by April, it was recovered about 40%. And so we do expect a stronger and stronger return of international demand in China through the balance of the year.

然後，Leeny，由於他的問題是針對中國的，我唯一可以為 Joe 的好處補充的是，我們確實在本季度看到，Joe，中國大陸的 RevPAR 已完全恢復到 2019 年的水平。但請記住，復甦的絕大部分是國內需求。截至本季度末，國內國際空運僅恢復約20%。我認為到四月份，它已經恢復了大約 40%。因此，我們確實預計在今年餘下的時間裡，中國的國際需求將越來越強勁地回歸。

Great. That's helpful. And then my follow-up question -- Leeny, thank you for prepared remarks on the development front with potential financing challenges. Are you guys getting increased requests? Or do you anticipate increased requests from developers for financial support?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後是我的後續問題 - Leeny，感謝您就發展方面的潛在融資挑戰準備好的評論。你們的請求增加了嗎？還是您預計開發人員對財務支持的請求會增加？

No, I think we always get requests for financial support, and we're happy to consider them. I do think, Joe, at the end of the day, the largest area of the capital stack, particularly in the U.S. that needs to be filled, is the senior loan. And so from that perspective, that is not a place where we typically get requests. And so around the edges, I would say there's a bit more request for whether they're debt service guarantees or operating profit guarantees, and that obviously is for managed properties. But I would say that, broadly speaking, the level of capital that we're putting into deals has not changed meaningfully. That this really is more about a temporary slowdown in the bank's willingness to get some of these financings over the finish line.

不，我認為我們總是會收到財務支持請求，我們很樂意考慮這些請求。我確實認為，喬，歸根結底，資本堆棧中需要填補的最大領域，尤其是在美國，是高級貸款。因此，從這個角度來看，這不是我們通常收到請求的地方。所以在邊緣，我想說有更多的要求是他們是償債擔保還是營業利潤擔保，這顯然是針對託管財產的。但我要說的是，從廣義上講，我們投入交易的資本水平並沒有發生有意義的變化。這實際上更多是關於銀行暫時放緩通過終點線獲得其中一些融資的意願。

We will take our next question from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

我們將接受 Stephen Grambling 與摩根士丹利的下一個問題。

Wanted to touch base on the digital or technology investment that you talked about last quarter. Just want to know a little bit more about how you think that could impact the consumer experience and our employee experience as we think about longer-term revenue and/or margin implications from that investment?

想談談你上個季度談到的數字或技術投資。只是想知道更多關於您認為這會如何影響消費者體驗和我們的員工體驗，因為我們考慮該投資的長期收入和/或利潤率影響？

Sure. So as we think about not only the replatforming of our major systems but also ongoing investment in our technology infrastructure, we always think about it through the lens of the impact on our associates, our guests and our owners and franchisees. I think from an associate perspective, particularly our future workforce is a workforce that has grown up opening an iPhone box with the understanding that there are no instructions and that technology will be intuitive and the design of our future technology will be similarly intuitive.

當然。因此，當我們不僅考慮對我們的主要係統進行平台重構，還考慮對我們的技術基礎設施進行持續投資時，我們總是從對我們的員工、客人以及我們的所有者和特許經營商的影響的角度來考慮它。我認為從員工的角度來看，尤其是我們未來的員工隊伍是在打開 iPhone 包裝盒的過程中成長起來的員工隊伍，他們明白沒有說明，技術將是直觀的，我們未來技術的設計也將同樣直觀。

So we think it will both be advantageous as we compete for talent, but it will also create capacity for them to more deeply engage with our guests. For our guests, we envision both at the property level and our customer engagement centers, making the breadth of information that we have about our guests available to our agents so that they can quickly and seamlessly address whatever questions or concerns or needs that those guests have.

因此，我們認為這在我們爭奪人才時既是有利的，但也將為他們創造能力，讓他們更深入地與我們的客人互動。對於我們的客人，我們設想在酒店層面和我們的客戶參與中心，將我們擁有的關於客人的廣泛信息提供給我們的代理，以便他們能夠快速、無縫地解決這些客人的任何問題、疑慮或需求.

And then I think from the owner's perspective, there are both inherent operating efficiencies from new technologies that should be margin enhancing. And I also think from a revenue generation perspective, today, when you go to m.com you have the ability to book rooms. When our new systems roll out, the full breadth of products and services that we have to sell our customers, food beverage, spa, golf will be available at a single click. And we think that represents a very meaningful revenue upside.

然後我認為從所有者的角度來看，新技術的內在運營效率應該會提高利潤率。而且我還認為，從創收的角度來看，今天，當您訪問 m.com 時，您可以預訂房間。當我們的新系統推出時，我們必須向客戶銷售的所有產品和服務、食品飲料、水療中心、高爾夫都將通過一次單擊提供。我們認為這代表了非常有意義的收入增長。

And Stephen, the only thing that I'll add is just a reminder that this is really a multiyear process that -- we talked about it a quarter ago, we talked about it again today, and that is that, I mean, we're thrilled with what we see for the potential with this and that, that will impact this year's investment spending, but we expect this will take several years.

斯蒂芬，我要補充的唯一一件事只是提醒一下，這確實是一個多年的過程——我們在一個季度前討論過它，我們今天再次討論過，那就是，我的意思是，我們”我們對我們看到的這個和那個的潛力感到興奮，這將影響今年的投資支出，但我們預計這將需要幾年時間。

That's helpful. And perhaps a quick follow-up on Joe's question about development and really focused on the pipeline. Given the strong growth in international markets in China, in particular, in the pipeline, how does that change the visibility as we think about translating to net unit growth from that particular part of the pipeline?

這很有幫助。也許可以快速跟進 Joe 關於開發的問題，並真正關注管道。鑑於中國國際市場的強勁增長，特別是在管道中，這如何改變我們考慮從管道的特定部分轉化為淨單位增長的可見性？

Well, I'll make a couple of comments. First of all, the continued strength in conversions is obviously great for our visibility into the pipeline. They tend to be shorter to actually open, they tend to be clearer and exactly what needs to be done to be able to put our flag on them. And you've seen that we continue to put out really strong numbers on both signings and openings. The other trend that we've noticed over the past couple of years is increasing comfort internationally with conversions. And as you think about our soft brands, that really started, frankly, in the U.S. with Autograph and then have now really expanded as you think about Autograph Luxury collection tribute and to some extent, Delta, you really see those spreading more around the world. And that obviously gives us better visibility both for the rooms that are going to open and frankly, really helps support the net rooms growth thesis that we have.

好吧，我會發表一些評論。首先，轉換的持續強勁顯然對我們對管道的可見性非常有用。它們實際打開的時間往往更短，它們往往更清晰，並且確切地知道需要做什麼才能將我們的旗幟放在上面。你已經看到我們繼續在簽約和空缺方面提供非常強勁的數字。我們在過去幾年註意到的另一個趨勢是國際上對轉化的舒適度越來越高。當你想到我們的軟品牌時，坦率地說，它真正開始於美國的 Autograph，然後當你想到 Autograph Luxury 系列致敬時，現在已經真正擴展，在某種程度上，Delta，你真的看到它們在世界各地傳播得更多.這顯然讓我們對即將開放的房間有了更好的了解，坦率地說，這確實有助於支持我們擁有的淨房間增長論點。

And I might just build on that, Stephen, the -- we talked a little bit about this last quarter. Of course, the teams around the world continue to pursue individual asset conversions, but we are just as aggressively looking for portfolio conversions. You might remember that in the middle of last year we were delighted to announce an 8-hotel portfolio conversion in Vietnam that we referred to as Vinpearl. Just last month, we did Vinpearl Round 2, which was 7 additional hotels, about 2,500 rooms, 3 of which are conversions that will open in calendar 2023. So I think that multi-unit portfolio conversion strategy is something you should reasonably expect to continue to be a focus area for our teams.

我可能只是以此為基礎，斯蒂芬，我們在上個季度談了一點。當然，世界各地的團隊繼續追求個人資產轉換，但我們同樣積極地尋求投資組合轉換。您可能還記得，去年年中，我們很高興地宣佈在越南進行 8 家酒店組合的轉換，我們將其稱為 Vinpearl。就在上個月，我們進行了 Vinpearl 第 2 輪，增加了 7 家酒店，約 2,500 間客房，其中 3 間將在 2023 年開放。因此，我認為多單元組合轉換策略是您應該合理期望繼續進行的成為我們團隊的重點領域。

We will take our next question from David Katz with Jefferies.

我們將與 Jefferies 一起接受 David Katz 的下一個問題。

I was hoping to get just a little more color on how we think about the arc or trajectory of non-RevPAR fees relative to the core fees that you've obviously provided a ton of color on and arguably, we have a bit more experience modeling over the long term.

我希望就我們如何考慮非 RevPAR 費用相對於核心費用的弧線或軌跡獲得更多的顏色，你顯然已經提供了大量的顏色並且可以說，我們有更多的建模經驗從長遠來看。

Sure. I think you heard me talk about the 4% to 7% expectation for 2023, which is obviously a bit different as it relates to fees from RevPAR given what we're seeing in the lodging operations for the year. So I think overwhelmingly, as you know, the non-RevPAR fees are co-brand credit card fees. Those are the largest chunk. And they are going to tie to both the number of cardholders and the level of average spend.

當然。我想你聽到我談到了 2023 年 4% 到 7% 的預期，這顯然有點不同，因為它與 RevPAR 的費用有關，考慮到我們在今年的住宿業務中看到的情況。所以我認為絕大多數情況下，如你所知，非 RevPAR 費用是聯合品牌信用卡費用。那些是最大的塊。他們將與持卡人數量和平均消費水平掛鉤。

I think it won't surprise you that as you've seen people start to amount of COVID that we are seeing the average spend on credit card increases year-over-year moderate. But I will also say that the number of cardholders is growing very nicely. So I would say that it is relatively speaking, more growth coming from the increased base of cardholders than it is on the actual spend, but it is a great combination of the 2 of them. The other thing is on our resi fees, on our resi branding fees, they over a kind of 3- to 5-year time horizon, they've just been growing beautifully as there's great demand for that product of ours, but they are a bit lumpier in terms of when the actual residences open. And that, I think you should expect to see that it will continue to grow over time, but that it can vary quarter-to-quarter quite meaningfully given the onetime nature of those fees.

我認為你不會感到驚訝，因為你已經看到人們開始關注 COVID 的數量，我們看到信用卡的平均支出同比溫和增長。但我還要說，持卡人的數量增長非常好。所以我想說，相對而言，更多的增長來自持卡人基數的增加，而不是實際支出，但這是兩者的完美結合。另一件事是關於我們的 resi 費用，關於我們的 resi 品牌費用，它們在 3 到 5 年的時間範圍內，它們一直在漂亮地增長，因為對我們的產品有很大的需求，但它們是就實際住宅開放時間而言，有點笨拙。而且，我認為你應該期望看到它會隨著時間的推移繼續增長，但考慮到這些費用的一次性性質，它可能會在季度與季度之間發生非常有意義的變化。

Understood. Very helpful. And if I can ask my follow-up, just touch on City Express a bit more, admitting that I have not stated one. Can you just help us sort of place that within kind of the RevPAR hierarchy of what you have and give us a sense as to sort of when and how and what way we might see that grow into other markets, notably more in the U.S.?

明白了。很有幫助。如果我可以問我的後續行動，只需多談一下 City Express，承認我沒有說明。您能否幫助我們將其置於您所擁有的 RevPAR 層次結構中，並讓我們了解我們可能會在何時、如何以及以何種方式看到它進入其他市場，尤其是在美國？

Yes, of course. So as I mentioned in the opening remarks, on the long list of attributes that excite us about this transaction, it is a great way for the company to enter the mid-scale segment, which is not a segment where we have competed previously. When we have talked in the past about the breadth of our portfolio, we've often responded to questions by saying we love the breadth of that portfolio, for the way in which it satisfies the wants and needs of both our guests and our owners and franchisees. And mid-scale is a tier where we hear demands from both of those constituents.

是的當然。因此，正如我在開場白中提到的那樣，在讓我們對此次交易感到興奮的一長串屬性中，這是公司進入中端細分市場的好方法，這不是我們之前競爭過的細分市場。當我們過去談到我們的產品組合的廣度時，我們經常回答問題說我們喜歡這個產品組合的廣度，因為它滿足了我們的客人和業主的需求和需求的方式加盟商。中等規模是我們聽到這兩個選民的需求的層次。

Mid-scale, obviously, is from a RevPAR perspective and a rate positioning perspective, positioned below brands like Fairfield that are in our current architecture. We think there is an immediate opportunity to accelerate the growth of City Express across the Caribbean and Latin American region. As we have done with many brands that we've either developed organically or acquired, we are [knee deep] in exploring the applicability of the City Express platform and its growth potential in other markets around the world. And in fact, here in the U.S., we're just a few weeks away from announcing a simple, modern, streamlined new build extended state product. It has very basic services and amenities for those looking for longer stays at a mid-scale price point. And you should expect to hear more about that in the coming weeks.

顯然，從 RevPAR 的角度和費率定位的角度來看，中檔酒店位於我們當前架構中的 Fairfield 等品牌之下。我們認為現在有機會加速 City Express 在加勒比和拉丁美洲地區的發展。正如我們對許多我們有機開發或收購的品牌所做的那樣，我們正在 [膝蓋深處] 探索 City Express 平台的適用性及其在全球其他市場的增長潛力。事實上，在美國這裡，我們距離宣布一個簡單、現代、流線型的新構建擴展狀態產品只有幾週的時間。它為那些希望以中檔價位長期住宿的人提供非常基本的服務和便利設施。在接下來的幾週內，您應該會聽到更多相關信息。

We will take our next question from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們將接受來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley 的下一個問題。

Great. Just circling back in your introductory remarks, you talked about business transient revenue being above 2019 levels, I wonder if you could tell us because rate clearly seems to be the driver, what business transient nights are as kind of the percent change the delta to 2019 level?

偉大的。剛才在你的介紹性發言中回過頭來，你談到業務瞬態收入高於 2019 年的水平，我想知道你是否可以告訴我們，因為費率顯然是驅動因素，哪些業務瞬態夜晚是將增量更改為 2019 年的百分比等級？

So business transient room nights are down about 1% versus 2019. Obviously, the rate has been terrific, particularly with the most recent renegotiation of the special corporate rate.

因此，與 2019 年相比，商務短暫間夜數下降了約 1%。顯然，這個比率非常好，特別是最近重新談判了特殊的公司房價。

Great. And I guess my other follow-up question would be I know you've talked about the strength you're raising RevPAR. So clearly, you're seeing strong demand. But when we look at the broader market, the STR data, we see luxury and economy, the 2 sort of ends, both having kind of on a trailing at this point. I think it's 7 weeks of trailing -- in 6 or 7 weeks of trailing, showing down year-over-year for RevPAR for those 2 segments. And I realize you're much more focused on the upscale and upper upscale. But I wonder if you could just sort of like opine for a moment on whether that's something that you think will start to move into those other segments? Or how you view what's happening in those kind of luxury and economy parts of the market.

偉大的。我想我的另一個後續問題是我知道你已經談到了你提高 RevPAR 的力量。很明顯，您看到了強勁的需求。但是，當我們查看更廣泛的市場 STR 數據時，我們會看到奢侈品和經濟這兩種類型的終端，此時都處於尾隨狀態。我認為這是 7 週的尾隨——在 6 或 7 週的尾隨中，這兩個細分市場的 RevPAR 同比下降。我意識到你更關注高檔和超高檔。但我想知道你是否可以稍微談談你認為這是否會開始進入其他領域？或者你如何看待市場中那些奢侈品和經濟部分正在發生的事情。

Sure. So obviously, we're very focused on rate, and I think that's revealed in the results with global ADR up about 11% in the quarter. If you look at the U.S. and Canada, Q1 luxury rates, as you point out, were down slightly year-over-year. But as we dig into that data, our sense is that modest decline is largely around mix shift. So the prior several quarters, the bulk of that luxury rate growth was in leisure destinations, resort destinations as we start to see pickup in demand in urban downtown core destinations, that's great for the business, but it's at lower rates, and that's dragging down a bit. With that said, globally, luxury ADR was up 4% in the quarter, even as compared to the extraordinarily strong ADR we saw for luxury in the first quarter.

當然。很明顯，我們非常關注利率，我認為這一點在本季度全球 ADR 增長約 11% 的結果中得到了體現。如果你看看美國和加拿大，正如你所指出的，第一季度的奢侈品價格同比略有下降。但當我們深入研究這些數據時，我們的感覺是適度下降主要是由於產品組合的變化。因此，在前幾個季度，奢侈品價格增長的大部分是在休閒目的地、度假勝地，因為我們開始看到市中心核心目的地的需求回升，這對業務來說是件好事，但它的價格較低，這正在拖累一點點。話雖如此，在全球範圍內，奢侈品 ADR 在本季度增長了 4%，即使與我們在第一季度看到的奢侈品 ADR 異常強勁相比也是如此。

Now, I think your second question was on economy...

現在，我認為你的第二個問題是關於經濟的……

Economy -- which largely, as you might imagine, I think we don't play very much there really in any meaningful way. I think it's not a surprise when you see that just generally speaking, in economy, there tends to be less variability, both up and down over time than you see in the highest end rates. But I think, again, I will point out on luxury, Robin, that we're still very, very pleased with what we see in terms of luxury demand. And frankly, when you think, for example, people having more opportunities of where they want to travel, it's one of the benefits of being the size and scale of our system because they are actually may not be going to some places domestically that they were going before but can now actually go abroad.

經濟——在很大程度上，正如你想像的那樣，我認為我們並沒有以任何有意義的方式在那裡玩得太多。我認為當你看到一般來說，在經濟中，隨著時間的推移，波動性往往比你在最高利率中看到的要小，這並不奇怪。但我想，我會再次指出奢侈品，羅賓，我們仍然對我們在奢侈品需求方面看到的情況感到非常非常滿意。坦率地說，例如，當你認為人們有更多機會去他們想去的地方旅行時，這是我們系統規模和規模的好處之一，因為他們實際上可能不會去國內的某些地方以前去，現在居然可以出國了。

And then just to put a little more context to your question, Robin, and I think this kind of tracks with the industry data that you referenced. This is system-wide for the quarter -- we end, as compared to '22, luxury RevPAR was up 18%, extended stay RevPAR was up 16%, Select brand RevPAR was up 23% and premium RevPAR was up 35%.

然後只是為了給你的問題提供更多背景信息，羅賓，我認為這種跟踪與你引用的行業數據有關。這是本季度的全系統——我們結束時，與 22 年相比，豪華 RevPAR 增長了 18%，長住 RevPAR 增長了 16%，精選品牌 RevPAR 增長了 23%，高端 RevPAR 增長了 35%。

On year-over-year, yes.

同比，是的。

We will take our next question from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley 的下一個問題。

Leeny, maybe if we could talk about capital return a little bit. Obviously, you boosted up your expectations or outlook there. Could you just remind us of kind of maybe where this new outlook range kind of puts you relative to your medium-term leverage target and what that target is?

Leeny，也許我們可以談談資本回報。顯然，您在那裡提高了期望或前景。你能不能提醒我們，這個新的前景範圍可能會讓你相對於你的中期槓桿目標以及這個目標是什麼？

Sure. I think it's a great question to be able to reinforce where we are, which is that we have been for some time continue to be and expect for the rest of this year to continue to be at the low end of the investment-grade leverage targets. So the biggest chunk of -- well, all of the chunk relative to the increase in capital return is from the increase in expected EBITDA and cash flow for the company. So if you think about, broadly speaking, the midpoint of adjusted EBITDA going up between $250 million and $300 million, it's pretty straight math to see that, that can get you to this increase of, call it, roughly $700 million of midpoint of capital return.

當然。我認為能夠加強我們的現狀是一個很好的問題，我們已經持續了一段時間，並預計今年剩餘時間將繼續處於投資級槓桿目標的低端.因此，最大的一部分——好吧，與資本回報增加相關的所有部分都來自公司預期 EBITDA 和現金流的增加。所以，如果你考慮一下，從廣義上講，調整後的 EBITDA 的中點在 2.5 億美元到 3 億美元之間上升，這是非常直接的數學運算，可以讓你達到資本中點大約 7 億美元的增長返回。

So we feel really strong about the way the business is operating from a cash flow performance as well as the visibility that we've got, certainly, in the near term. But even at the lower end of the guidance that we provided, I think we still feel really good about being at the low end of our leverage targets with the kind of capital return range that we've given.

因此，我們對從現金流量表現以及我們在短期內獲得的可見性的業務運營方式感到非常強烈。但即使在我們提供的指導的低端，我認為我們仍然對處於我們提供的那種資本回報範圍的槓桿目標的低端感覺非常好。

Great. And as my follow-up to maybe switch gears a little bit, but following up on the comment around, I think, mid-scale extended stay and a little bit around M&A and City Express too, Tony, could you just talk a little bit about sort of the balance of potential brand launches and where you see white space on that front relative to tuck-in M&A, which I know we saw for a number of years kind of back into the early 2010s and then obviously, Starwood kind of took over for a few years in the late teens there. Maybe help us balance those 2 priorities or how you see opportunities in each.

偉大的。作為我的後續行動，可能會稍微改變一下，但我認為，在評論之後，中等規模的長期住宿以及併購和城市快遞也有一點，托尼，你能談談嗎關於潛在品牌發布的某種平衡，以及相對於併購併購，你在這方面看到的空白，我知道我們已經看到很多年了，回到 2010 年代初期，然後很明顯，喜達屋有點採取了在十幾歲的時候在那里呆了幾年。也許可以幫助我們平衡這兩個優先事項，或者您如何看待每個優先事項的機會。

Of course. So the fundamental strategy has not shifted. You are right to point out that prior to Starwood, there was a fairly consistent cadence of what we always refer to as bolt-on acquisitions. But the bulk of those acquisitions had some common DNA. They often helped us gain a foothold in a geography where we were dissatisfied with the pace of organic growth. And they often -- we often have the view that they represented a growth platform, either regionally or potentially globally. AC acquisition would be perhaps the best illustration of that.

當然。所以基本策略沒有改變。您正確地指出，在喜達屋之前，我們一直稱之為補強收購的節奏相當一致。但這些收購中的大部分都有一些共同的 DNA。他們經常幫助我們在我們對有機增長速度不滿意的地區站穩腳跟。他們經常 - 我們經常認為他們代表了一個增長平台，無論是區域性的還是潛在的全球性的。 AC收購也許是最好的例證。

Our industry-leading scale gives us maybe the luxury of not needing to do M&A to gain scale. We enjoy scale. But we will continue to look at opportunities if we believe there is a gap in the geography where our guests seek to travel, and we're dissatisfied with our footprint or if we see a gap in our brand architecture. That was what guided the City Express transaction, a transaction that solidified the strength and leadership of our footprint in the CALA region and also filled in a gap at our brand architecture by giving us entry into mid-scale.

我們行業領先的規模給了我們可能不需要進行併購來擴大規模的奢侈。我們喜歡規模。但如果我們認為我們的客人尋求旅行的地理區域存在差距，並且我們對我們的足跡不滿意，或者如果我們發現我們的品牌架構存在差距，我們將繼續尋找機會。這就是引導 City Express 交易的原因，該交易鞏固了我們在 CALA 地區足蹟的實力和領導地位，並通過讓我們進入中等規模填補了我們品牌架構的空白。

But the final bit of common DNA in every one of those transactions is the discipline around the valuation, and you should expect to see that same discipline as we evaluate, what I think will be a fair number of opportunities that will be floating around out there in the market. And then maybe the last comment I would make is, as I reflect on the last decade or more of expansion of our platform, I'm delighted that we've expanded our brand architecture through a thoughtful blend of both M&A and organically generated platforms. When I look at the success we've had with organic launches like Autograph and Moxy and I blend that with powerhouses like Residence Inn and Ritz-Carlton and AC which were added to the system through M&A., I really like that approach.

但是，每筆交易中的最後一點共同 DNA 是圍繞估值的紀律，你應該期望在我們評估時看到同樣的紀律，我認為將會有相當多的機會漂浮在那裡在市場上。然後也許我要發表的最後評論是，當我回顧過去十年或更長時間我們平台的擴展時，我很高興我們通過併購和有機生成平台的深思熟慮的結合擴展了我們的品牌架構。當我看到我們通過 Autograph 和 Moxy 等有機發布所取得的成功時，我將其與通過併購添加到系統中的 Residence Inn 和 Ritz-Carlton 和 AC 等強大公司相結合，我真的很喜歡這種方法。

We will take our next question from Smedes Rose with Citi.

我們將接受花旗銀行 Smedes Rose 的下一個問題。

I just wanted to ask a little bit about how you're thinking about occupancy as we move through the year. And sort of asking in the context it looks like for you and for others that we've seen reports from that occupancies are still sort of stubbornly below kind of pre-pandemic levels. I mean, certainly, it's close, but they're still below, obviously offset by rate. But I'm wondering, do you have any just sort of updated thoughts on -- is there some piece of business that's maybe kind of gone or [still are] being priced out? Or do you think occupancies can and will return to kind of pre-pandemic levels as we go through this year and into next year?

我只是想問一下您如何看待我們這一年的入住率。在你和其他人看來，我們看到的報告顯示，入住率仍然頑固地低於大流行前的水平。我的意思是，當然，它很接近，但它們仍然低於，顯然被利率抵消了。但我想知道，你是否有任何更新的想法——是否有一些業務可能已經消失或[仍然]被定價？或者您認為在今年和明年，入住率能夠並且將會恢復到大流行前的水平嗎？

Sure. So I'll give it a try, and Leeny, feel free to jump in. As we pointed out in the prepared remarks, we continue to see robust demand recovery translating into strong occupancy growth. In fact, on a global basis, we saw 11 points of occupancy improvement in the quarter. When we think about our updated guidance, at the high end of that guidance, we expect our RevPAR growth to be fairly evenly split between ADR and occupancy gains. So we do expect there to be continued occupancy gains at the high end of that guidance. The low end of the range would reflect a meaningful softening in the global economy in the back half of the year. And that would have worldwide RevPAR relatively flat compared to where we were in the back half of last year.

當然。所以我會試一試，Leeny，隨時加入。正如我們在準備好的評論中指出的那樣，我們繼續看到強勁的需求復蘇轉化為強勁的入住率增長。事實上，在全球範圍內，我們看到本季度的入住率提高了 11 個百分點。當我們考慮更新後的指南時，在該指南的高端，我們預計我們的 RevPAR 增長將在 ADR 和入住率收益之間相當平均地分配。因此，我們確實預計在該指導的高端會有持續的入住率增長。該範圍的低端將反映全球經濟在今年下半年顯著走軟。與我們去年下半年的情況相比，這將使全球 RevPAR 相對持平。

So the only thing I'll add is it is interesting when you look at occupancy compared to 2019, and we do continue to make progress in that comparison. When I look at U.S. and Canada kind of moving through from January through March of this Q compared to '19, we're down to only 2 percentage points difference by the time we're at March and globally, actually, we're only 2 percentage points in March as well. I think there are a couple of things to note. Number one is the portfolios are pretty different. We've added 11% more rooms since 2019. So the comparison starts to be not completely apples-to-apples.

因此，我唯一要補充的是，當您查看與 2019 年相比的入住率時，這很有趣，而且我們確實在這種比較中繼續取得進展。當我看到美國和加拿大從本 Q 的 1 月到 3 月與 19 年相比有點移動時，我們在 3 月和全球範圍內僅下降了 2 個百分點的差異，實際上，我們只是3 月份也增加了 2 個百分點。我認為有幾點需要注意。第一是投資組合非常不同。自 2019 年以來，我們增加了 11% 的房間。因此，比較開始並不完全相同。

And I think there's also been some great learnings on the part of the industry about revenue management. And there, I think at the end of the day, we're trying to make sure that we're maximizing the returns on these real estate assets. And then as you've seen with group, for example, there's actually been some benefit over the reality that group is booking closer to the time of the actual event. So I think we will eventually get back there. We are getting fairly close. But I think the best part is that you're seeing the fundamental business segments of business, transient leisure and group really all operating on full cylinders, not exactly the way they behaved in 2019, but still really in good shape.

而且我認為該行業在收益管理方面也有一些很好的學習。在那裡，我認為在一天結束時，我們正在努力確保我們正在最大化這些房地產資產的回報。然後，正如您在團隊中看到的那樣，實際上，團隊在接近實際活動時間的時候進行預訂，這實際上有一些好處。所以我認為我們最終會回到那裡。我們越來越接近了。但我認為最好的部分是，你看到商業、短暫休閒和團體的基本業務部門都在全速運轉，雖然與 2019 年的表現不同，但仍然處於良好狀態。

Okay. And then maybe just on that -- I'm sorry, if you said what percent of demand in the quarter came through Marriott Bonvoy members? And could you just talk a little bit about what kind of demand is coming through OTAs at this point?

好的。然後也許只是關於這個 - 對不起，如果你說本季度有多少百分比的需求來自萬豪 Bonvoy 會員？您能否談談此時通過 OTA 帶來的什麼樣的需求？

Yes. On the penetration side -- is that your question on Marriott?

是的。在滲透方面——這是你關於萬豪的問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Are you talking about digital channels? Or are you talking about Marriott...

你在談論數字頻道嗎？或者你說的是萬豪...

For occupancy, how much came through Marriott Bonvoy?

對於入住率，有多少來自萬豪旅享家？

Yes. So for the first quarter, globally, the member penetration was 53% and in the U.S., it was 60%.

是的。因此，第一季度，全球會員滲透率為 53%，美國為 60%。

Okay. And has the -- the occupancy through OTAs changed meaningfully or...

好的。並且——通過 OTA 的入住率發生了有意義的變化，或者……

No, that has stayed that's at about 11%, and that is quite similar to what was pre-COVID. I think the interesting part is that you look at either the digital channels which have grown 600 basis points since pre-COVID or if you look at all of Marriott's direct channels together, we've actually grown share about 100 basis points since pre-COVID but the OTAs have remained roughly flat.

不，一直保持在 11% 左右，這與 COVID 之前的情況非常相似。我認為有趣的部分是你看看自 COVID 之前以來增長了 600 個基點的數字渠道，或者如果你一起看萬豪的所有直接渠道，我們實際上已經增長了大約 100 個基點自 COVID 之前的份額但 OTA 大致持平。

We'll take our next question from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們將接受來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes 的下一個問題。

Tony, I see there's some news in the last day or so that you folks will begin bundling your resort fees into your pricing displays later this month. It looks like you're the first major hotel company to be doing this. Do you see just putting yourself -- does this create an unfair competitive disadvantage for you? And would you expect other hotel companies to also follow your lead with displaying these fees?

托尼，我看到最近一天左右有一些消息，你們將在本月晚些時候開始將度假費捆綁到定價顯示中。看起來你們是第一家這樣做的大型酒店公司。你是否看到只是把自己放在一邊——這會給你帶來不公平的競爭劣勢嗎？您是否希望其他酒店公司也效仿您顯示這些費用？

Yes. So the way I'd answer that, Patrick, we've already been showing it. The discussions we've been having with the various jurisdictions are just about making sure that the transparency of those disclosures is enhanced and crystal clear for our guests. It is not as if those were hidden somehow, we're simply further clarifying and enhancing that transparency. I will leave it to the state AGs around the rest of the country for the rest of the industry. But I am pleased that we will lead the industry in terms of the transparency of our disclosure for our guests.

是的。所以我回答這個問題的方式，帕特里克，我們已經展示過了。我們一直在與各個司法管轄區進行的討論只是為了確保這些披露的透明度得到提高，並且對我們的客人來說一目了然。這些並不是以某種方式被隱藏的，我們只是進一步澄清和提高透明度。我將把它留給全國其他地區的州 AG，以供其他行業使用。但我很高興我們將在向客人披露信息的透明度方面處於行業領先地位。

And I also -- I agree, I think that's the right thing to do to give full transparency on [resort].

而且我也 - 我同意，我認為這是讓 [度假村] 完全透明的正確做法。

We will take our next question from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

我們將與伯恩斯坦一起接受理查德克拉克的下一個問題。

Just the first one. Your comment was that the projects that are under construction or finance are not being affected. About 60% of your pipeline is not under construction. How would you clarify that? How much of that is finance or construction hasn't started? And how much risk associated is there without 60% not under construction?

只是第一個。您的評論是，正在建設或融資的項目沒有受到影響。大約 60% 的管道未在建設中。你會如何澄清這一點？其中有多少是金融或建設尚未開始？如果沒有 60% 未在建，相關風險有多大？

Sure. So yes, you've got the basic parameters roughly right, which is those that have started construction, you would expect those to be already be financed. There's not a specific number on firm financing for that other 60%. That's an ongoing process and always has been between the developers as they consider their various capital sources. One thing to remember in that is that our pipeline is over 50% international, which does tend to be less dependent on senior loan financing.

當然。所以是的，你已經大致正確地獲得了基本參數，即那些已經開始建設的參數，你會期望那些已經獲得資金。其他 60% 的公司融資沒有具體數字。這是一個持續的過程，並且在開發商考慮各種資金來源時一直存在。其中要記住的一件事是，我們的渠道超過 50% 是國際化的，這確實往往較少依賴高級貸款融資。

And then for the remainder, in the U.S., it is overwhelmingly limited service franchised properties. And those from a relative speaking basis, we do believe that there is some slowdown in the pace of financing for those, but we are, at the same time, continuing to see that banks are willing to consider loans for strong brands and strong proven markets, and we are still seeing that lenders are looking at those projects.

然後對於其餘部分，在美國，它是絕大多數有限的服務特許經營權。從相對的角度來看，我們確實認為這些融資的步伐有所放緩，但與此同時，我們繼續看到銀行願意考慮為強大的品牌和強大的成熟市場提供貸款，我們仍然看到貸方正在關注這些項目。

So I don't think that there is a fundamental change in how we see those projects materializing and to actually build hotels. I'd also remind you that there's quite a few conversion hotels in that as well. So I think as you've probably seen in past times where lending has had a slowdown that there can be a bit of a slowdown in the construction starts, but that we do expect with the performance of the hotel business and frankly, the relative performance of hotel loans, particularly in limited service loans, we would expect that to get going again more quickly. We aren't seeing fall out of those deals from our pipeline in anything more than a typical fashion.

因此，我認為我們看待這些項目具體化和實際建造酒店的方式並沒有發生根本性的變化。我還要提醒您，那裡也有不少改裝酒店。所以我認為，正如您過去可能看到的那樣，貸款放緩，建築開工可能會有所放緩，但我們確實預計酒店業務的表現，坦率地說，相對錶現酒店貸款，特別是有限服務貸款，我們預計它會更快地再次出現。除了典型的方式之外，我們沒有看到這些交易從我們的管道中消失。

Okay. And just as a follow-up. You mentioned your credit cards now in 9 countries, just how meaningfully are those 8 non-U.S. countries so far. And what is the opportunity? Can we have a credit card in 200 countries eventually? Or is there some natural limit to how many countries you can launch?

好的。並作為後續行動。你提到你現在在 9 個國家/地區使用信用卡，到目前為止這 8 個非美國國家/地區的意義有多大。機會是什麼？我們最終能在 200 個國家擁有一張信用卡嗎？還是您可以啟動的國家/地區有一些自然限制？

Well, we're certainly going to have as many as we can, you can be sure of that. I think I'd make 2 comments. First of all, certainly with the use of revolving credit in the U.S., that is, by far, the lion's share of the fees that we received are related to the U.S. But I would say the rate of growth that we're seeing in terms of both the spend and the cardholder numbers in international is really quite tremendous, both in terms of the numbers of cards -- numbers of countries that we're adding cards as well as the number of cardholders in those countries. So we've been really pleased with the increases, for example, in Japan, in South Korea, in terms of the growth in cardholders. And I think that bodes really well for future growth but also for our hotel growth and for our hotel business because these are all Bonvoy members who want to be earning points and staying at our properties. So it's a great part of the ecosystem of our business.

好吧，我們當然會盡可能多，這一點你可以確定。我想我會發表 2 條評論。首先，當然是在美國使用循環信貸，也就是說，到目前為止，我們收到的大部分費用都與美國有關，但我想說我們看到的增長率就卡的數量而言，國際上的支出和持卡人數量確實非常巨大——我們正在添加卡的國家數量以及這些國家的持卡人數量。因此，我們對持卡人數量的增長感到非常滿意，例如在日本、韓國。而且我認為這對於未來的增長以及我們的酒店增長和我們的酒店業務來說都是一個好兆頭，因為這些都是 Bonvoy 會員，他們希望獲得積分併入住我們的酒店。因此，它是我們業務生態系統的重要組成部分。

We will take our next question from Dori Kesten with Wells Fargo.

我們將接受 Dori Kesten 和 Wells Fargo 的下一個問題。

What percentage of your 200,000 rooms under construction or slated to open over the next 3 years?

在您的 200,000 間在建或計劃在未來 3 年內開業的客房中，有多少百分比？

Well, I think the best way -- we don't have a particular percentage. As you know, they -- we don't control exactly when they open. We do keep a very careful eye on how they are doing, and again, feel comfortable with the numbers that we've talked -- that Tony talked about in terms of the gross room openings, which has both a share of those coming out from under construction as well as conversions.

好吧，我認為最好的方法——我們沒有特定的百分比。如您所知，他們 - 我們無法準確控制它們何時開放。我們確實非常關注他們的表現，並且再次對我們所討論的數字感到滿意 - Tony 談到的總房間開放數量，其中有一部分來自正在建設和改造中。

Okay. And I guess on to conversions, do you know -- do you have a typical percentage that come as a result of sales versus just an owner choosing to switch?

好的。我想關於轉化率，你知道嗎——你是否有一個典型的百分比是由於銷售而不是所有者選擇轉換？

Yes, I don't think there's necessarily a typical percentage. If I had to guess over the last decade or so, it's probably relatively evenly split between an owner that simply has an opportunity to change brands or to flag an independent hotel versus an opportunity that is created as a result of a transaction. But I think that ebbs and flows a bit depending on where we find ourselves in an economic cycle.

是的，我認為不一定有典型的百分比。如果我不得不猜測在過去十年左右的時間裡，它可能在所有者之間相對平均地分配，所有者有機會改變品牌或標記一家獨立酒店，而所有者則有機會通過交易創造機會。但我認為，潮起潮落取決於我們在經濟周期中所處的位置。

And I'll just add 1 other point that may be as you try to come up with your own math, is just a reminder that for hotel construction and a limited service hotel, roughly speaking, 2 years under construction and a full-service hotel can be anywhere from 3 to 4.

我會再補充一點，這可能是因為你試圖想出自己的數學，只是提醒一下，對於酒店建設和有限服務酒店，粗略地說，建設 2 年和提供全方位服務的酒店可以是 3 到 4 之間的任何值。

We will take our next question from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour 的下一個問題。

Just quickly back to China. Tony, or anyone could you talk about maybe the starts momentum there on the ground. I know it sort of beats a little bit to its own drum or different drum than what we're talking about in the U.S., but are you seeing any building momentum in new construction starts in China? And do you think that, that could potentially offset sort of the growing headwinds on the financing side in the U.S., Lenny, that you just talked about?

趕緊回中國吧。托尼，或者你能談談的任何人，也許是地面上的開始勢頭。我知道它有點自鳴得意或與我們在美國談論的鼓不同，但你是否看到中國新建築開工的任何建設勢頭？你是否認為，這可能會抵消你剛才談到的美國融資方面日益增長的逆風？

Yes. So I think the borders are just opening, the economy is just starting to really gear up. So it's a bit soon for new construction starts. What I can tell you is some of the in-flight construction projects that have been paused have restarted. Our approval volumes are accelerating, the volume of memorandums of understanding that we're negotiating and executing are accelerating. So all of the leading indicators that should drive construction starts are really encouraging, but probably a bit premature to have any really strong data for you.

是的。所以我認為邊界才剛剛開放，經濟才剛剛開始真正加速。所以新建築開工有點早。我可以告訴你的是，一些已經暫停的在建項目已經重新啟動。我們的批准量正在加速，我們正在談判和執行的諒解備忘錄的數量正在加速。因此，所有應該推動開工建設的領先指標都非常令人鼓舞，但要獲得任何真正強大的數據可能還為時過早。

The other thing I'll point out is that roughly speaking, about 15% of our Chinese pipeline deals have some state-owned enterprise participation. And I think that does help as you think about the capital sourcing for those projects that is helpful as we get those ongoing again.

我要指出的另一件事是，粗略地說，我們在中國的管道交易中約有 15% 有一些國有企業參與。我認為這確實有幫助，因為您考慮了這些項目的資金來源，這對我們再次進行這些項目很有幫助。

And maybe the last point I would add, because we're so heavily weighted to the most valuable quality tiers of our upscale and luxury, oftentimes when we engage with the owner, the project is well under construction. So unlike the U.S., where our conversations start with a greenfield site, they may come to us with a tower of 25 stories out of the ground. So it's a bit of an apples-to-orange comparison.

也許我要補充的最後一點是，因為我們非常重視高檔和奢侈品中最有價值的質量等級，通常當我們與業主接觸時，該項目正在建設中。因此，與美國不同，我們的談話從一個綠地開始，他們可能會帶著一棟 25 層的高樓來到我們這裡。所以這有點像蘋果與橘子的比較。

That's really helpful. And then, Leeny, following up on the IMF discussion, you talked about Asia-Pac and international. Could you maybe touch on the outlook for IMF in the U.S. kind of squaring that with the fact that you guys aren't implying a ton of growth in the U.S. in the back half? But as you mentioned, your mix skews to full service, which has the group component in there. Can you try and sort of square those factors away for us, please?

這真的很有幫助。然後，Leeny，在 IMF 的討論之後，你談到了亞太地區和國際。您能否談談美國國際貨幣基金組織的前景，即你們並沒有暗示美國在後半段會有大量增長？但是正如您所提到的，您的組合偏向於全面服務，其中包含組組件。你能試著為我們排除這些因素嗎？

Yes, sure. Absolutely. So I do -- if you look at year-over-year Q1, you are right in pointing out that the U.S. IMF, which came close to doubling in Q1 from 42 to 85, actually did double, that growth was overwhelmingly driven by the premium hotels was the return of group and business transient to our premium hotels. We did continue to see growth in IMF from our luxury hotels, but the biggest chunk of growth came from those premium hotels. So I think with the strength of group that Tony pointed out, in his comments for the rest of the year that you should continue to see the strong growth in both U.S. and Canada IMFs as well as international.

是的，當然。絕對地。所以我確實是——如果你看一下第一季度的同比情況，你指出美國國際貨幣基金組織在第一季度幾乎翻了一番，從 42 到 85，實際上翻了一番，增長的絕大部分是由高級酒店是團體和商務旅客返回我們的高級酒店。我們確實繼續從我們的豪華酒店中看到 IMF 的增長，但最大的增長來自那些高檔酒店。因此，我認為，憑藉托尼在今年餘下時間的評論中指出的集體實力，你應該會繼續看到美國和加拿大國際貨幣基金組織以及國際貨幣基金組織的強勁增長。

We will take our next question from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

我們將接受 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth 的下一個問題。

Just with respect to China, I understand that the recovery has been primarily domestic so far, and we obviously have a good feel for airlift recovery. But I wonder if you could talk a little bit about segmentation. Is it like other geographies in that it's primarily leisure at this stage? And could you just comment on BT and group recovery within China or if there's any differences versus other geographies? And then just for my follow-up for the sake of time, do you share the view that it will be a fairly booming summer to Europe, looking forward?

就中國而言，據我所知，到目前為止，復甦主要是國內的，我們顯然對空運復甦有良好的感覺。但我想知道你是否可以談談細分。它是否像其他地區一樣，在這個階段主要是休閒？您能否評論一下中國的 BT 和集團復甦，或者與其他地區相比是否存在差異？然後只是為了我的後續行動，為了時間的緣故，你是否同意歐洲將迎來一個相當繁榮的夏天，期待？

Sure. So I'll start with the second question first, and then Tony will fill in also. And that is, yes, on the second question. While we actually have seen the dollar soften a little bit more than where we were relative to when we gave guidance earlier in February, the reality is that we are still seeing great demand for Europe hotels for the summer and very pleased with the booking patterns we see there.

當然。所以我會先從第二個問題開始，然後 Tony 也會補充。是的，關於第二個問題。雖然我們實際上已經看到美元比我們在 2 月初給出指引時的匯率略微走軟，但事實是我們仍然看到夏季對歐洲酒店的巨大需求，並且對我們的預訂模式非常滿意看那裡。

On Greater China, let me talk about a couple of things. First of all, cross-border, just a reminder of our comments earlier that roughly 3 quarters of the business typically is domestic. Well, right now, it's over 90% is domestic. So I think there is the reality that there's going to be more travel both in and out of Greater China as demand -- as the airlift improved. So we would expect to see that help both other parts of the world, but also that there's more travel into China. In terms of the segment, it's seeing the recovery in segments very similar to the way that we saw it in other parts of the world. The one difference being that on special corporate and business transient in China that is recovering much more quickly than it did in the U.S. For example, overwhelmingly, people are back in their offices in Greater China, while in the U.S., there's obviously much more of a hybrid mix. So we are actually seeing all of the segments recover more in line with each other rather than necessarily one after another the way it was in the U.S.

關於大中華區，我講兩點。首先，跨境，只是提醒我們之前的評論，大約四分之三的業務通常是國內業務。那麼，現在，它超過 90% 是國內的。所以我認為現實是，隨著空運的改善，進出大中華區的旅行將會增加。因此，我們希望看到這對世界其他地區都有幫助，而且還有更多的人到中國旅行。就細分市場而言，它看到細分市場的複蘇與我們在世界其他地區看到的方式非常相似。一個不同之處在於，中國的特殊企業和商業瞬態恢復速度比美國快得多。例如，絕大多數人回到了大中華區的辦公室，而在美國，顯然更多混合組合。因此，我們實際上看到所有細分市場的恢復都更加一致，而不是像美國那樣一個接一個地恢復。

And the only other small [node] I would make, and I'm sure you're aware of this, but the Chinese government just pivoted a bit and said that those foreign visas issued prior to March 28 of '20, that initially, they have said would need to be renewed, those are now available for use for entry into Mainland China, which should pave the way then for greater inbound international because of the queue for new visa processing for international visitors had been quite lengthy.

我會做的唯一另一個小[節點]，我相信你知道這一點，但中國政府只是稍微改變一下，說那些外國簽證是在 20 年 3 月 28 日之前簽發的，最初，他們說需要更新，現在可以用於進入中國大陸，這應該為更多的國際入境鋪平道路，因為國際遊客的新簽證處理隊列已經很長了。

And we will take our next question from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

我們將與 Macquarie 一起接受 Chad Beynon 的下一個問題。

First, Tony, in terms of what your team has coined Bleisure, which has presumably helped the length of stay, I'd assume, upper upscale in luxury. While it's hard to pinpoint, have you seen any reduction in these hybrid trips? I know it's always tough to analyze that, but just trying to figure out as people get back to fully in the office if that benefit has waned at all?

首先，Tony，就您的團隊創造的 Bleisure 而言，我認為這可能有助於延長住宿時間，即高檔奢侈品。雖然很難確定，但您是否看到這些混合旅行有任何減少？我知道分析它總是很困難，但只是想弄清楚隨著人們完全回到辦公室，這種好處是否已經完全消失了？

Yes. Not yet. I mean I think the best statistical data we have is the recovery by day of the week, and we continue to see strong recovery on Sundays and Thursdays, which is probably the most compelling empirical data we have that suggests that blended trip purpose continues to be strong. And then I would supplement that data with what we hear anecdotally when we're talking both with special corporate customers and with group customers who are talking to us as we replatform our technology and encouraging us to make it easier for their business travelers or their group meeting attendees to book a single reservation that has both business and leisure purposes. So our sense is that, that trend shows no sign of showing down. And as I've said in other forums, that's great news for our business.

是的。還沒有。我的意思是我認為我們擁有的最好的統計數據是一周中每天的複蘇，我們繼續看到週日和周四的強勁復甦，這可能是我們擁有的最引人注目的經驗數據表明混合旅行目的仍然是強的。然後，當我們與特殊的企業客戶和團體客戶交談時，我會用我們聽到的軼事來補充這些數據，這些客戶正在與我們交談，因為我們重新調整了我們的技術平台，並鼓勵我們讓他們的商務旅行者或他們的團體更容易與與會者會面以預訂兼具商務和休閒目的的單一預訂。所以我們的感覺是，這種趨勢沒有任何減弱的跡象。正如我在其他論壇上所說，這對我們的業務來說是個好消息。

And then lastly, and this is something you'll probably get into at the Analyst Day. But Leeny, in terms of the guidance you laid out, the difference between the high- and low-end, obviously, regarding variable macro scenarios and prior global recessions or in the analysis you guys are currently doing for the guidance, should we expect a more pronounced flattening or maybe decline in North America or outside of the U.S.? Obviously, a lot of variables in there, but just kind of wondering how you're thinking about maybe a soft landing or slightly worse than soft landing could affect each market.

最後，這是您可能會在分析師日了解的內容。但是 Leeny，就你制定的指導而言，高端和低端之間的差異，顯然，關於可變的宏觀情景和之前的全球衰退，或者在你們目前為指導所做的分析中，我們是否應該期待北美或美國以外的地區出現更明顯的扁平化或下降？顯然，那裡有很多變數，但只是想知道你是如何考慮軟著陸或比軟著陸稍差的可能會影響每個市場。

Yes. I would probably consider it about the timing of the recovery. So a couple of broad comments. Generally speaking, lodging demand does have a high correlation with GDP growth. So when you think of emerging economies like India, as an example, where you're seeing 6% GDP growth, that's going to be very different than what you see in the U.S. where more typical GDP growth might be more like 2%, and so the impact of a recession can be different in that regard.

是的。我可能會考慮恢復的時間。所以有一些廣泛的評論。一般來說，住宿需求與GDP增長確實有很高的相關性。因此，當你想到像印度這樣的新興經濟體時，你會看到 6% 的 GDP 增長，這將與你在美國看到的情況大不相同，後者更典型的 GDP 增長可能更接近 2%，而且因此，經濟衰退的影響在這方面可能有所不同。

But I think when I think about the guidance that we've given this year, it is much more tied to the pace of recovery. The U.S., for example, meaningfully farther along in its recovery from COVID than Asia Pacific, for example. And I think we're clearly seeing that now all restrictions are lifted in Asia Pacific and that both pent-up demand and return of demand is coming quite nicely, which will mean that should we see an economic slowdown, I think they will be impacted a bit less than, for example, in the U.S., where obviously in the U.S., if we see it, it's starting from a different point. So again, as we talked about, we would imagine that Q3 and Q4 in that slowdown does mean that there is a meaningful economic slowdown. I'm not sure I would call it a super sharp deep V. But clearly, a real meaningful economic slowdown that would get us to that roughly flat RevPAR in Q3 and Q4 compared to '22.

但我認為，當我考慮我們今年給出的指導時，它與復甦的步伐更加相關。例如，美國在從 COVID 中復甦的過程中比亞太地區走得更遠。而且我認為我們清楚地看到，現在亞太地區的所有限制都已解除，被壓抑的需求和需求回升都非常順利，這意味著如果我們看到經濟放緩，我認為它們將受到影響比美國少一點，顯然在美國，如果我們看到它，它是從不同的點開始的。因此，正如我們所說，我們再次想像，經濟放緩的第三季度和第四季度確實意味著經濟放緩。我不確定我會稱它為超尖銳的深 V。但很明顯，與 22 年相比，真正有意義的經濟放緩將使我們在第三季度和第四季度達到大致持平的 RevPAR。

We have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Tony Capuano for closing remarks.

我們已經到了規定的提問時間。我現在將把電話轉回給 Tony Capuano 作結束語。

Great. Well, thank you all again for your thoughtful questions. Thanks for your interest in Marriott International. We hope to accommodate you in what should be a terrific summer around the world. and we look forward to welcoming all of you to the beach in Miami in the fall for our Investor Day. Have a great afternoon. Thank you.

偉大的。好吧，再次感謝大家提出的深思熟慮的問題。感謝您關注萬豪國際。我們希望能在世界各地度過一個美好的夏天。我們期待著歡迎大家在秋天來到邁阿密的海灘參加我們的投資者日。祝你下午愉快。謝謝。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time. Have a wonderful day.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。