萬豪國際 (MAR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Marriott International's Third Quarter 2022 earnings. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jackie Burka, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎收看今天的萬豪國際集團 2022 年第三季度財報。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。現在我很高興將今天的項目交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Jackie Burka。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer; and Executive Vice President, Business Operations; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝你。大家早上好，歡迎參加萬豪 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的首席執行官 Tony Capuano；我們的首席財務官 Leeny Oberg；和業務運營執行副總裁；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁 Betsy Dahm。

I will remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. Please also note that unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy and average daily rate comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and include hotels temporary closed due to COVID-19.

我要提醒大家，我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實，根據聯邦證券法被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致未來的結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的評論和新聞稿中的聲明僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。另請注意，除非另有說明，否則我們的 RevPAR 入住率和平均每日房價評論反映了可比酒店的全系統不變貨幣結果，包括因 COVID-19 暫時關閉的酒店。

RevPAR occupancy and ADR comparisons between 2022 and 2019 reflect properties that are defined as comparable as of September 30, 2022, even if they were not open and operating for the full year 2019 or they did not meet all the other criteria for comparable in 2019. Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons to prepandemic for 2019 are comparing the same time period in each year. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

2022 年和 2019 年之間的 RevPAR 入住率和 ADR 比較反映了截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日定義為可比的房產，即使它們在 2019 年全年沒有開放和運營，或者它們不符合 2019 年的所有其他可比標準。此外，除非另有說明，所有與 2019 年疫情前的比較都是在每年的同一時間段進行比較。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們今天的評論中提到的所有非公認會計原則財務指標的收益發布和對賬。

And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

現在我將把電話轉給托尼。

Thanks, Jackie, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We had an outstanding third quarter. Quarter rose above 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic began, up nearly 2%. RevPAR compared to 2019 improved sequentially from the second quarter in every region around the world. Global occupancy rose to 69% while ADR outpaced by 2019, excuse me, by a remarkable 10%. Compared to prepandemic levels, worldwide RevPAR in September reached a new monthly high watermark, increasing more than 4% or nearly 7%, excluding Greater China.

謝謝，傑基，感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們有一個出色的第三季度。自大流行開始以來，該季度首次超過 2019 年的水平，增長了近 2%。與 2019 年相比，全球每個地區的 RevPAR 從第二季度開始都有所改善。全球入住率上升至 69%，而 ADR 到 2019 年超過了驚人的 10%。與疫情前水平相比，9 月份全球 RevPAR 達到了新的月度高水位線，增長超過 4% 或接近 7%，不包括大中華區。

During the quarter, leisure demand remained strong, well above 2019 levels. In the U.S. and Canada, Full-Service group revenue for the quarter showed continued growth, ending up 3% over the same quarter in 2019. Fourth quarter Full-Service group revenue is currently pacing up 4%, but is likely to improve further given the strong last-minute group bookings that we've seen all year. The trend towards last-minute bookings has led to meaningful compression in pricing power, helping group ADR for new bookings rise each quarter this year.

本季度，休閒需求依然強勁，遠高於 2019 年的水平。在美國和加拿大，本季度全方位服務集團收入持續增長，最終比 2019 年同期增長 3%。第四季度全方位服務集團收入目前增長 4%，但可能會進一步改善我們全年看到的最後一刻的團體預訂量非常強勁。最後一刻預訂的趨勢導致定價權顯著壓縮，幫助集團 ADR 的新預訂在今年每個季度都有所上升。

At our managed hotels in the U.S., ADR for in-the-year, for-the-year group bookings made in the third quarter rose 17% compared to same year bookings made in the 2019, 3rd quarter. A significant jump from the 6% increase we saw in the first quarter. ADR for group bookings made in the third quarter for 2023 outpaced 2019, 3rd quarter bookings for events in 2000 by 24%. Business transient demand also continued to improve during the quarter, although it still lags 2019 levels. Third quarter business transient room nights in the U.S. and Canada were 11% below 2019. We are currently in the midst of our special corporate negotiations for 2023 and are very pleased with how they're progressing. After 2 years of holding rates steady, the early results look positive for at least high single-digit year-over-year rate growth.

在我們在美國管理的酒店中，與 2019 年第三季度的同年預訂相比，第三季度的年度團體預訂的 ADR 增長了 17%。與我們在第一季度看到的 6% 的增長相比有了顯著的增長。 2023 年第三季度團體預訂的 ADR 超過 2019 年，2000 年第三季度活動的預訂量增長了 24%。儘管仍落後於 2019 年的水平，但本季度的商業瞬態需求也繼續改善。美國和加拿大第三季度的商務瞬態房晚數比 2019 年減少了 11%。我們目前正在進行 2023 年的特別企業談判，並對談判的進展情況感到非常滿意。在維持利率穩定 2 年後，初步結果看起來至少是個位數的年增長率。

Third quarter day-of-the-week trends continue to suggest that travelers are combining leisure and business trips. In fact, the average length of a transient business trip has increased meaningfully, and year-to-date is up more than 15% compared to 2019. With borders reopened in most countries around the world, rising cross-border travel helped spur demand during the quarter, especially in Europe and in the Caribbean and Latin America or CALA region. Cross-border guests accounted for 15% of our global room nights in the third quarter, an uptick from 12% in the first quarter of this year. In 2019, 18% of travel to our properties was from cross-border guests. So we anticipate additional upside from international travel especially from Greater China once stringent travel restrictions are relaxed.

第三季度的每週趨勢繼續表明，旅行者正在將休閒和商務旅行結合起來。事實上，短暫商務旅行的平均時長顯著增加，今年迄今比 2019 年增長了 15% 以上。隨著世界上大多數國家重新開放邊境，跨境旅行的增加有助於刺激需求本季度，尤其是在歐洲和加勒比地區和拉丁美洲或 CALA 地區。第三季度跨境客人占我們全球房晚的 15%，高於今年第一季度的 12%。 2019 年，我們酒店 18% 的旅行來自跨境客人。因此，一旦放寬嚴格的旅行限制，我們預計國際旅行尤其是大中華區的旅行將會有額外的好處。

Given rapidly rising interest rates and growing concerns about a possible global recession, we are closely monitoring consumer and macroeconomic trends. There is no doubt that the hospitality industry is impacted by economic cycles. And with transient booking windows averaging only about 3 weeks, trends could change relatively quickly. However, we have yet to see signs of a slowdown in global lodging demand. In fact, we've seen just the opposite. Booking trends remain very healthy. Given sustained high levels of employment, consumer trends prioritizing experiences versus goods, pent-up travel demand and a high level of consumer savings, travel spending has been incredibly resilient.

鑑於利率迅速上升以及對可能出現的全球衰退的擔憂日益加劇，我們正在密切關註消費者和宏觀經濟趨勢。毫無疑問，酒店業受到經濟周期的影響。由於臨時預訂窗口平均只有 3 週左右，因此趨勢可能會相對迅速地發生變化。然而，我們尚未看到全球住宿需求放緩的跡象。事實上，我們看到的恰恰相反。預訂趨勢仍然非常健康。鑑於持續的高就業率、消費者優先考慮體驗而非商品的趨勢、被壓抑的旅行需求和高水平的消費者儲蓄，旅行支出具有難以置信的彈性。

In October, demand remained strong across our regions, with the exception of Greater China, where trends are still low. Our powerful Marriott Bonvoy program grew to 173 million members at the end of the third quarter. The program achieved record penetration levels in the quarter reaching 60% in the U.S. and Canada and 53% globally. Members also continued to engage with our co-brand credit cards, which had another solid quarter. After recently making significant enhancements by adding new benefits to many of our U.S. cards, sign-ups have well exceeded expectations.

10 月份，我們各地區的需求依然強勁，但大中華區除外，那裡的趨勢仍然很低。到第三季度末，我們強大的萬豪旅享家計劃的會員人數增長到 1.73 億。該計劃在本季度實現了創紀錄的滲透率水平，在美國和加拿大達到 60%，在全球達到 53%。會員還繼續使用我們的聯合品牌信用卡，這又是一個穩定的季度。最近通過為我們的許多美國卡添加新的好處進行了重大改進之後，註冊人數遠遠超出了預期。

This led to record new cardholder acquisitions as well as record spending for the first 9 months of this year. We also introduced 2 mid-tier cards at the end of September, which should help drive strong growth going forward. While much smaller fee contributors that are U.S. co-brand cards, we have similarly seen record growth internationally this year in new card members and total card spend.

這導致今年前 9 個月的新持卡人購買量和支出均創紀錄。我們還在 9 月底推出了 2 張中級卡，這將有助於推動未來的強勁增長。雖然美國聯合品牌卡的費用貢獻者要小得多，但我們在今年的國際新卡會員和卡總支出方面同樣看到了創紀錄的增長。

This has been particularly driven by China, where we've had great traction after launching our first cards there in July. Our Bonvoy members have been increasingly interacting with the platform through our direct digital channels, which helps boost owner and franchisee profitability. Since 2019, our share of room nights booked through direct digital channels has increased more than 5 percentage points to 38% while our distribution through OTAs has risen by less than 1 percentage point to 12%.

這尤其受到中國的推動，我們在 7 月份在那裡推出了第一張卡片後，在中國獲得了巨大的吸引力。我們的 Bonvoy 成員越來越多地通過我們的直接數字渠道與平台互動，這有助於提高所有者和加盟商的盈利能力。自 2019 年以來，我們通過直接數字渠道預訂的間夜份額增加了 5 個百分點以上，達到 38%，而我們通過 OTA 的分配增加了不到 1 個百分點，達到 12%。

The power of Bonvoy in our direct channels has also been evident in our latest offering, the Ritz-Carlton Yacht which made its inaugural voyage from Barcelona last month. Remarkably, around 2/3 of all bookings for this incredible brand extension have been through direct channels, which is many times above the rates most cruise companies experience. Additionally, Bonvoy members account for more than half of the Yacht bookings. We look forward to more ships joining the portfolio in the future.

我們的最新產品——麗思卡爾頓遊艇上個月從巴塞羅那首航，在我們的直航渠道中發揮了 Bonvoy 的力量。值得注意的是，這個令人難以置信的品牌延伸的所有預訂中，約有 2/3 是通過直接渠道進行的，這比大多數郵輪公司的經驗高出很多倍。此外，Bonvoy 會員佔遊艇預訂量的一半以上。我們期待未來有更多的船舶加入該投資組合。

Shifting to the development front, our pipeline grew for the fourth quarter in a row, totaling more than 502,000 rooms by the end of the third quarter. Signing activity in the quarter remained healthy in most regions of the world. Our development team continues to be laser focused on conversions, a particularly bright spot in the development story. Conversions represented 21% of room signings and 27% of room openings in the quarter. We are very enthusiastic about the level of conversations on conversions, including for multiunit conversion opportunities.

轉向開發方面，我們的管道連續第四季度增長，到第三季度末總計超過 502,000 間客房。本季度的簽約活動在世界大部分地區保持健康。我們的開發團隊繼續專注於轉換，這是開發故事中的一個特別亮點。轉換佔本季度房間簽約的 21% 和房間開放的 27%。我們非常熱衷於關於轉換的對話水平，包括多單元轉換機會。

Outside the Greater China, we were pleased to see new construction starts pick up nicely in the third quarter. While not yet back to 2019 levels, new construction starts in the U.S. reached the highest quarterly level since the pandemic began. For full year 2022, we now expect gross rooms growth of approximately 4.5% compared to our prior expectation of closer to 5%. The change is primarily a result of fewer expected openings in Greater China as the lockdowns there have extended construction time lines. The good news is that we have not seen deals in Greater China or in any of our regions falling out of the pipeline at a higher than usual rate. With just 2 months left in the year, we now expect deletions at the bottom end of our prior guidance. Deletions could be about 1.5% for 2022 or 1%, excluding the 50 basis point impact from our exit from Russia.

在大中華區以外，我們很高興看到第三季度的新開工情況良好。儘管尚未回到 2019 年的水平，但美國的新開工量達到了自大流行開始以來的最高季度水平。對於 2022 年全年，我們現在預計總客房增長率約為 4.5%，而我們之前的預期接近 5%。這一變化主要是由於大中華區的封鎖延長了建設時間線，預計在大中華區的開業人數減少。好消息是，我們還沒有看到大中華區或我們任何地區的交易以高於正常水平的速度退出交易。今年只剩下 2 個月了，我們現在預計我們之前指導的底部會被刪除。 2022 年的刪除率可能約為 1.5% 或 1%，不包括我們退出俄羅斯帶來的 50 個基點影響。

So our net rooms growth for 2022 is likely to be around 3% or 3.5% before factoring in the deletions in Russia. We're always looking at opportunities that help broaden the offering for our guests as well as our owners and franchisees. Last month, we announced our agreement to acquire the City Express brand portfolio. which is currently comprised of 152 hotels with over 17,000 rooms in the CALA region. We are quite bullish on the moderately priced mid-scale space, which has meaningful growth potential. Upon closing this transaction, we will immediately gain a significant foothold in this high-growth segment in CALA, while also becoming the largest hotel company in the region.

因此，在考慮俄羅斯的刪除之前，我們 2022 年的淨客房增長率可能在 3% 或 3.5% 左右。我們一直在尋找有助於為我們的客人以及我們的所有者和特許經營商擴大產品範圍的機會。上個月，我們宣布了收購 City Express 品牌組合的協議。目前在 CALA 地區擁有 152 家酒店，擁有超過 17,000 間客房。我們非常看好價格適中的中檔空間，它具有顯著的增長潛力。完成此次交易後，我們將立即在 CALA 的這一高增長領域獲得重要立足點，同時也成為該地區最大的酒店公司。

We are incredibly excited about the opportunity to expand in this segment in CALA as well as other locations around the world. If the transaction closes before year-end, our 2022 gross rooms growth could be around 5.5%, and our net rooms growth could be approximately 4%. We really look forward to working with the City Express team. We expect solid rooms growth going forward, given the attractiveness of our portfolio of global brands, our powerful loyalty program, our momentum around conversions and our industry-leading pipeline. While the exact timing will depend on how new construction starts trend from here, we remain confident that over the next several years, we will return to our pre-pandemic mid-single-digit net rooms growth.

我們非常高興有機會在 CALA 以及世界其他地方擴展這一細分市場。如果交易在年底前完成，我們 2022 年的總客房增長率可能在 5.5% 左右，我們的淨客房增長率可能在 4% 左右。我們非常期待與 City Express 團隊合作。鑑於我們的全球品牌組合的吸引力、我們強大的忠誠度計劃、我們在轉換方面的勢頭以及我們行業領先的管道，我們預計未來客房將實現穩健增長。雖然確切的時間將取決於新建築從這裡開始的趨勢，但我們仍然相信，在未來幾年，我們將恢復到大流行前的中個位數淨客房增長。

Now before I turn it over to Leeny, I just want to recognize and thank our associates around the world for their continued commitment, passion and resilience. Leeny?

現在，在我把它交給 Leeny 之前，我只想承認並感謝我們在世界各地的員工一直以來的承諾、熱情和韌性。萊尼？

Thank you, Tony. We had excellent financial performance again this quarter, driven by continued momentum in global RevPAR growth. In the U.S. and Canada, third quarter RevPAR was 3.5%, above pre-pandemic levels with ADR surpassing 2019 by more than 10%. RevPAR for all market types; primary, secondary and tertiary and all brand types from luxury through extended stay was more fully recovered for the first time. With the exception of Asia Pacific, our international regions posted incredibly strong RevPAR growth as restrictions across most countries fully lifted. Europe, in particular, benefited from a large increase in U.S. leisure demand, thanks to the strong dollar.

謝謝你，托尼。在全球 RevPAR 持續增長勢頭的推動下，我們本季度的財務表現再次出色。在美國和加拿大，第三季度 RevPAR 為 3.5%，高於大流行前水平，ADR 比 2019 年高出 10% 以上。所有市場類型的 RevPAR；一級、二級、三級，從奢侈品到長住的所有品牌類型首次得到較為充分的恢復。除亞太地區外，隨著大多數國家/地區的限製完全解除，我們的國際地區的 RevPAR 實現了令人難以置信的強勁增長。由於美元走強，歐洲尤其受益於美國休閒需求的大幅增長。

Compared to 2019, third quarter RevPAR rose 6% in Europe, nearly 19% in the Middle East and Africa and nearly 18% in CALA. RevPAR is still lagging behind 2019 levels in Greater China and in our Asia Pacific, excluding China or APAC region. Greater China improved the most in the quarter with RevPAR 23% below 2019, 30 percentage points better than a quarter ago. However, the recovery there remains uneven given China's renewed commitment to its strict 0 COVID policy. The good news is that we continue to see that when a market reopens for domestic travel after a lockdown, lodging demand rebounds very quickly.

與 2019 年相比，歐洲第三季度 RevPAR 增長了 6%，中東和非洲增長了近 19%，CALA 增長了近 18%。 RevPAR 在大中華區和我們的亞太地區（不包括中國或亞太地區）仍落後於 2019 年的水平。大中華區在本季度的改善最大，RevPAR 比 2019 年低 23%，比一季度前高出 30 個百分點。然而，鑑於中國再次承諾其嚴格的 0 COVID 政策，那裡的複蘇仍然不平衡。好消息是，我們繼續看到，當市場在封鎖後重新開放國內旅行時，住宿需求會迅速反彈。

In APAC, South Korea joined India and Australia in crossing the full recovery mark, but this was offset by Japan's borders remaining closed until the end of the quarter. Third quarter RevPAR in APAC was 14% below pre-pandemic levels, an 8 percentage point improvement from a quarter ago. As we move through the fourth quarter, APAC is benefiting from a recovery in airlift in Japan's now open orders. Three quarter -- third quarter total gross fees of $1.1 billion rose 11% compared to 2019, exceeding the top end of our guidance.

在亞太地區，韓國與印度和澳大利亞一起跨越了全面復甦的大關，但這被日本邊境一直關閉到本季度末所抵消。亞太地區第三季度 RevPAR 比大流行前水平低 14%，比一季度前提高了 8 個百分點。隨著我們進入第四季度，亞太地區正受益於日本空運訂單的複蘇。第三季度——第三季度總費用為 11 億美元，與 2019 年相比增長了 11%，超過了我們指導的上限。

Growth was driven by RevPAR improvement and room additions as well as another quarter of strong non-RevPAR related fees. Those fees totaled $192 million in the third quarter, largely aided by ongoing growth in our co-brand credit card fees, which rose 22% year-over-year. The strength of our industry-leading luxury portfolio also contributed significantly to fee growth in the quarter. Gross fees from our luxury properties were up 13% versus the same quarter in 2019, even with Greater China's weaker performance. While our luxury properties account for 21% of our managed rooms, they contributed 34% of our total incentive management fees in the third quarter.

增長是由 RevPAR 改善和房間增加以及另一季度強勁的非 RevPAR 相關費用推動的。第三季度這些費用總計 1.92 億美元，主要得益於我們的聯合品牌信用卡費用的持續增長，同比增長 22%。我們行業領先的奢侈品組合的實力也對本季度的費用增長做出了重大貢獻。儘管大中華區的表現較弱，但我們豪宅的總費用與 2019 年同期相比增長了 13%。雖然我們的豪華物業占我們管理房間的 21%，但它們在第三季度貢獻了我們總激勵管理費的 34%。

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA also exceeded the high end of our guidance, outpacing the same quarter in 2019 by 9%. With the strong U.S. dollar, foreign exchange net of hedging, negatively impacted adjusted EBITDA by $22 million in the quarter, some of which was included in our guidance a quarter ago. This negative currency translation was more than made up for by the positive impact from increased U.S. leisure travel abroad. We estimate net of our hedges, a 100 basis point change in the U.S. dollar could affect full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA by less than $10 million.

第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 也超過了我們指引的高端，比 2019 年同期高出 9%。由於美元走強，扣除對沖的外匯，本季度調整後的 EBITDA 受到了 2200 萬美元的負面影響，其中一些已包含在我們一季度前的指導中。這種負面的貨幣換算被美國海外休閒旅遊增加的積極影響所彌補。我們估計，扣除對沖後，美元 100 個基點的變化可能對 2022 年全年調整後 EBITDA 的影響不到 1000 萬美元。

G&A and other expenses totaled $216 million in the third quarter, better than our guidance, largely reflecting lower-than-expected administrative costs and bad debt. At the hotel level, we remain focused on containing operating costs for our owners and franchisees while also delivering superior service to our guests. With ADR of 15% above 2019 and our significant productivity enhancements, third quarter profit margins at our U.S. and Canada managed hotels were 2 full percentage points above 2019 levels despite meaningful wage and benefit inflation. Wage and benefit growth while still high, continued to moderate in the third quarter.

第三季度的 G&A 和其他費用總計 2.16 億美元，好於我們的預期，主要反映了低於預期的管理成本和壞賬。在酒店層面，我們仍然專注於為業主和加盟商控制運營成本，同時為客人提供優質服務。與 2019 年相比，ADR 比 2019 年高出 15%，並且我們的生產力顯著提高，儘管工資和福利通脹顯著增加，但我們在美國和加拿大管理的酒店的第三季度利潤率比 2019 年水平高出 2 個百分點。工資和福利增長雖然仍然很高，但在第三季度繼續放緩。

Let me now turn to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 guidance, the details of which are in our press release. As we headed into the end of the year, we're very pleased with the strong continued momentum in our business. Group's transient bookings are showing further gains against 2019. In both the U.S. and Canada and internationally, we expect fourth quarter RevPAR compared to pre-pandemic levels to accelerate from the third quarter, even with anticipated weaker demand in Greater China. Compared to 2019, fourth quarter RevPAR could increase 4% to 6% in the U.S. and Canada, be down 2% to flat internationally and increase 2% to 4% globally.

現在讓我談談我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年指導，詳細信息在我們的新聞稿中。隨著我們進入年底，我們對我們業務的強勁持續發展勢頭感到非常高興。與 2019 年相比，集團的臨時預訂量顯示出進一步的增長。在美國和加拿大以及國際上，我們預計第四季度 RevPAR 與大流行前的水平相比將從第三季度開始加速，即使預計大中華區需求疲軟。與 2019 年相比，美國和加拿大的第四季度 RevPAR 可能增長 4% 至 6%，在國際上下降 2% 至持平，全球增長 2% 至 4%。

Worldwide fourth quarter RevPAR could increase 27% to 29% over fourth quarter 2021. We're still working through our 2023 budgets and recognize that there is heightened macro uncertainty. That said, we currently think 2023 global RevPAR could increase nicely year-over-year, driven by gains in both the U.S. and Canada and internationally. Each quarter could see growth compared to this year and particularly strong growth in the first quarter due to the easier comparison given the impact of the Omicron variant in early 2022.

全球第四季度 RevPAR 可能比 2021 年第四季度增長 27% 至 29%。我們仍在努力完成 2023 年的預算，並認識到宏觀不確定性加劇。也就是說，我們目前認為 2023 年全球 RevPAR 可能會同比大幅增長，這主要得益於美國、加拿大和國際市場的增長。鑑於 2022 年初 Omicron 變體的影響，每個季度都可能出現與今年相比的增長，尤其是第一季度的強勁增長，因為比較容易。

For full year 2022, we're now anticipating G&A expenses of $880 million to $890 million, slightly better than our prior guidance, primarily due to lower bad debt expense. We're also raising our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance and now expect adjusted EBITDA of around $3.79 billion at the midpoint of the range, which is 6% higher than our prior full peak year in 2019. Due to the timing of some capital expenditures for owned, leased hotels and corporate systems as well as key money payments, we now expect full year investment spending of closer to $500 million, assuming the City Express transaction does not close in 2022. Strong spending on our credit cards is expected to result in loyalty being a slight source of cash for the full year before factoring in the reduced payments received from the credit card companies.

對於 2022 年全年，我們現在預計 G&A 費用為 8.8 億美元至 8.9 億美元，略好於我們之前的指導，主要是由於壞賬費用較低。我們還提高了全年調整後 EBITDA 指引，現在預計調整後 EBITDA 在該範圍的中點約為 37.9 億美元，比我們之前在 2019 年的完整高峰年高出 6%。由於一些資本支出的時間安排自有、租賃的酒店和企業系統以及禮金支付，我們現在預計全年投資支出接近 5 億美元，假設 City Express 交易不會在 2022 年完成。我們信用卡上的強勁支出預計將帶來忠誠度在考慮從信用卡公司收到的減少付款之前，它是全年的少量現金來源。

Year-to-date, our net cash provided by operating activities was $1.9 billion, a significant increase of nearly $1.2 billion compared to the first 3 quarters of last year, a strong reminder of the power of our asset-light business model. At the end of the quarter, our leverage ratio was excellent at the low end of investment grade targets. With our solid financial results and cash flow generations, we have already returned $1.9 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends through October 31, and we now expect to return more than $2.7 billion to shareholders this year.

年初至今，我們的經營活動提供的淨現金為 19 億美元，與去年前三個季度相比顯著增加了近 12 億美元，這有力地提醒了我們輕資產業務模式的力量。在本季度末，我們的槓桿率在投資級別目標的低端表現出色。憑藉我們穩健的財務業績和產生的現金流，截至 10 月 31 日，我們已經通過回購和股息向股東返還了 19 億美元，我們現在預計今年將向股東返還超過 27 億美元。

In closing, we're incredibly proud of how well our business is performing and how resilient our business has proven to be. Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

最後，我們為我們的業務表現如此出色以及我們的業務證明是多麼有彈性感到非常自豪。托尼和我現在很高興回答你的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們將回答美國銀行的肖恩·凱利提出的第一個問題。

Tony, probably wanted to start with you, if we could. One thing that's been a bit of a theme, and you hit on it as well through your commentary was just how strong the development environment has held up and I'm wondering if you could unpack that for us a little bit, just given we continue to hear about rising financing costs, a little bit more stress in some of the commercial real estate markets, and that contrasts pretty greatly with what you kind of implied in your comments about just how well your signings are going and your activities going, so can you help us square that up a little bit and just talk about what you're seeing on the ground?

托尼，如果可以的話，可能想從你開始。有一件事有點像一個主題，您也通過您的評論談到了開發環境的強大程度，我想知道您是否可以為我們解開一點，只要我們繼續聽說融資成本上升，一些商業房地產市場壓力更大，這與你在評論中暗示的關於你的簽約進展如何以及你的活動進展情況大相徑庭，所以可以你幫我們解決一下問題，然後談談你在地面上看到的情況？

Of course. So on the signing side, we continue to see strong development committee volume. We continue to see strong franchise application volume in most markets around the world. The construction we're seeing in the debt markets for new construction, particularly here in the U.S. is lengthening the cycle even a bit longer in terms of getting shovels in the ground but we're quite encouraged about the consistency we've seen in the volume of under-construction projects in our pipeline. In fact, we were looking at it over the last few days. As you saw in our release, we continue to have a little over 200,000 rooms under construction.

當然。因此，在簽約方面，我們繼續看到強大的開發委員會數量。我們繼續在全球大多數市場看到強勁的特許經營申請量。我們在新建築的債務市場上看到的建設，特別是在美國，正在延長周期甚至更長一些，但我們對我們在土地上看到的一致性感到非常鼓舞。我們在建項目的數量。事實上，我們在過去幾天裡一直在研究它。正如您在我們的新聞稿中所看到的，我們仍有超過 200,000 間客房在建。

It's actually the 20th straight quarter where we had more than 200,000 rooms under construction globally. The market in China is most certainly -- where we're seeing the most challenges. The disproportionate share of our projects in the pipeline in China, in fact, about 60% are in the luxury and upper -- upscale tier, principally in primary markets, which are -- well, the combination of those quality tiers in those markets caused those projects to be the most significant fee generators, but they are more complex development projects, and it takes a little longer for them to get open in a market like China. But broadly, we continue to see really powerful interest in our portfolio of brands. And we're maybe most encouraged by the volume both on signings and openings in the conversion tier.

這實際上是我們連續第 20 個季度在全球建設超過 200,000 間客房。毫無疑問，中國市場是我們面臨最大挑戰的地方。事實上，我們在中國的項目中的比例不成比例，大約 60% 位於奢侈品和高端——主要是初級市場，這些市場的質量層的組合導致這些項目是最重要的費用產生者，但它們是更複雜的開發項目，它們需要更長的時間才能在像中國這樣的市場上開放。但從廣義上講，我們繼續看到人們對我們的品牌組合產生了濃厚的興趣。我們可能對轉換層的簽約和空缺數量感到最鼓舞。

That's great. And then maybe as my follow-up, Leeny, you mentioned, I believe, as you're looking out to 2023 RevPAR that it could increase nicely and you said each quarter, positive versus this year. Could you just talk a little bit about again very high-level assumptions behind that. I know no one's got a crystal ball here, but just how did you kind of -- how do you consider the macro when you think about that outlook and maybe some of the pluses or minuses that could factor into that?

那太棒了。然後也許正如我的後續行動，Leeny，你提到的，我相信，當你期待 2023 年 RevPAR 時，它可能會很好地增加，你說每個季度都比今年積極。您能否再次談談這背後的非常高級的假設。我知道這裡沒有人有水晶球，但你是怎麼想的——當你考慮到這種前景時，你是如何考慮宏觀的，也許是一些可能影響到這一點的利弊？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Shaun. As you say, there obviously continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty about the possible recession given the Fed's continued rise in rates and economic headwinds that do continue to grow. But I think we've got some things in our business that really do lead us to confidence about 2023, although we are not predicting per se a recession. We clearly believe there does continue to be pent-up travel demand, particularly in parts of the world where the borders are just opening. We're also seeing just generally a desire for travel and services as compared to goods, which we do see strongly in leisure. Also see, as we think about kind of the overall macro environment that there is pent-up savings for the consumer.

是的，當然。謝謝，肖恩。正如你所說，鑑於美聯儲持續加息和經濟逆風確實繼續增長，對於可能的衰退顯然仍然存在相當大的不確定性。但我認為我們的業務中有一些事情確實讓我們對 2023 年充滿信心，儘管我們本身並沒有預測經濟衰退。我們清楚地認為，旅行需求確實會繼續被壓抑，尤其是在邊境剛剛開放的世界部分地區。與商品相比，我們也普遍看到了對旅行和服務的渴望，我們確實在休閒中看到了強烈的商品。另請參閱，當我們考慮整體宏觀環境時，消費者有被壓抑的儲蓄。

So we'll have to see. But again, from where we sit right now and as we look into the booking trends moving into 2023, we continue to see strength across all the business segments, Shaun. And then the last thing I would say is the reality is our booking window is still short. So at roughly 3 weeks for transient bookings, things could change relatively quickly. But for the signs that we see right now, we feel good about 2023. Obviously, Q1 is a particularly hopeful item given we had Omicron in the first quarter of 2022.

所以我們得看看。但同樣，從我們現在的位置來看，隨著我們研究進入 2023 年的預訂趨勢，我們繼續看到所有業務部門的實力，肖恩。然後我要說的最後一件事是現實是我們的預訂窗口仍然很短。因此，在大約 3 週的臨時預訂中，情況可能會發生相對較快的變化。但是對於我們現在看到的跡象，我們對 2023 年感覺良好。顯然，鑑於我們在 2022 年第一季度擁有 Omicron，第一季度是一個特別有希望的項目。

Our next question will come from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

I was hoping you could talk about 2023 group business on the books for next year? And maybe talk about it maybe a little bit differently than maybe how you've talked about it in the past. I was just wondering how much of group for 2023 is on the books for sure as a percentage of what you anticipate the total to be? And then maybe you can just talk about in segments in terms of when that was booked, so to get a sense of pricing, how much of '23 group was booked in '22? How much of it was booked in '21? How much it was booked prior to '21? And obviously, how much would you anticipate in the year, for the year, just given the relative strength of group of late?

我希望你能在明年的書上談論 2023 年的集團業務？也許談論它可能與你過去談論它的方式有點不同。我只是想知道 2023 年的團隊中有多少是在你預期的總數中的百分比？然後，也許您可以就預訂時間進行分段討論，以便了解定價，22 年預訂了 23 年組的多少？ 21 年預訂了多少？ 21 年之前預訂了多少？很明顯，考慮到最近團隊的相對實力，你對這一年的預期是多少？

Yes, of course. So let me start macro and then I'll try to get a little more precise in reference to your specific question. 2023 group revenue on the book is currently pacing down about 11% relative to '19, although candidly, you heard Leeny's comments about the short booking window on transient, a similarly short booking window on group. And so I don't know that looking at that down 11% is particularly relevant. Even for Q4 this year, we're up 4%, and we think that will likely improve through the quarter, given the strength of short-term bookings and the trade that many of our customers are making for flexibility and they're willing to pay a higher rate.

是的當然。因此，讓我開始宏觀，然後我將嘗試更準確地參考您的具體問題。相對於 19 年，2023 年的團體預訂收入目前正以大約 11% 的速度下降，儘管坦率地說，您聽到了 Leeny 關於短暫預訂窗口的評論，團體預訂窗口也很短。所以我不知道看到 11% 的下降是否特別重要。即使在今年第四季度，我們也增長了 4%，我們認為這可能會在整個季度有所改善，因為短期預訂的實力以及我們的許多客戶為靈活而進行的交易以及他們願意支付更高的利率。

When I look deeper into what's on the books for 2023, room nights are down in the high teens. ADR is actually up close to about 10%. And then I think your second question was really about when that business is being booked? I guess I'll try to give you some 2022 data that is hopefully indicative of the trends we're seeing. About 50% of the group business we've seen year-to-date in 2022 was booked in the year, for the year. That's about double what we saw pre-pandemic, where typically, we'd see about 25% of our total group volume being booked in the year, for the year.

當我更深入地研究 2023 年的書籍時，房間的夜數已經降到了十幾歲。 ADR實際上接近10%左右。然後我認為您的第二個問題實際上是關於何時預訂該業務？我想我會嘗試為您提供一些 2022 年的數據，這些數據有望表明我們所看到的趨勢。我們在 2022 年迄今所見的集團業務中，約有 50% 是在當年預訂的。這大約是我們在大流行前看到的兩倍，通常情況下，我們會看到全年預訂的團體總銷量的 25% 左右。

Great. And then, Leeny, we heard your comments, obviously, about broad expectations for 2023 RevPAR growth. How do you think non-RevPAR-related fees performed relative to that RevPAR growth expectation? Would you expect it to be similar? Would you expect it to be plus or minus? How do you think about that?

偉大的。然後，Leeny，我們顯然聽到了您對 2023 年 RevPAR 增長的廣泛預期的評論。您認為非 RevPAR 相關費用相對於 RevPAR 增長預期的表現如何？你會期望它是相似的嗎？你希望它是正數還是負數？你怎麼看？

So we're in the middle of our budget process, Joe. So we obviously aren't getting to where we're talking about specifics on RevPAR growth of '23 over '22. I think what we've seen this year is credit card fees frankly being up over 20% year-to-date this year. And I think for the full year, obviously, our guidance implies the same. So I think you'll continue to see growth in the cardholders and then growth in spend. But whether it matches exactly RevPAR, we're not in a position to say specifically.

所以我們正處於預算流程的中間，喬。因此，我們顯然沒有談到我們談論的 23 年 RevPAR 增長超過 22 年的具體細節。我認為我們今年看到的是，今年迄今為止，信用卡費用坦率地上漲了 20% 以上。而且我認為全年，顯然，我們的指導意味著相同。因此，我認為您將繼續看到持卡人的增長，然後是支出的增長。但它是否與 RevPAR 完全匹配，我們無法具體說明。

Obviously, when you look at compared to '19, those credit card fees have grown meaningfully more than hotel-related fees because of COVID and the steady growth in cardholders and credit card spend each and every year as we've moved through 2019. But I -- again, broadly speaking, we are looking at growth of non-RevPAR fees in 2023, both from credit cardholders as well as spend. But the relative array of growth compared to RevPAR, we will get closer to as we move through the budget process, but we're looking for healthy growth in both.

顯然，與 19 年相比，這些信用卡費用的增長顯著超過了與酒店相關的費用，原因是 COVID 以及隨著我們進入 2019 年，持卡人和信用卡支出每年的穩定增長。但是我 - 再次，從廣義上講，我們正在關注 2023 年非 RevPAR 費用的增長，無論是來自信用卡持有人還是支出。但是，與 RevPAR 相比，我們將在預算過程中更接近增長的相對范圍，但我們正在尋找兩者的健康增長。

And our next question will come from Robin Farley with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

I was curious about the acquisition that you made in October and you talked about expanding in the mid-scale segment in the CALA region with that brand. Do you have thoughts about the mid-scale segment in the U.S., not necessarily with that brand, but in some other brands that maybe we don't know about yet.

我對您在 10 月份進行的收購感到好奇，您談到了用該品牌在 CALA 地區的中檔市場擴張。您是否對美國的中檔細分市場有想法，不一定是那個品牌，而是其他一些我們可能還不知道的品牌。

Yes. Of course. So as we mentioned in the release on the acquisition, and I think, I at least touched on this in my prepared remarks, the acquisition initially is focused on the CALA region. We are equally excited about the growth prospects for mid-scale across CALA and what this transaction does for us in terms of further strengthening our footprint across this really important region. As with many acquisitions that we've done over the years, once we close, once we start rolling in CALA, we will, of course, evaluate the applicability of this platform as to whether it makes sense to roll out some or all of the sub-brands under the City Express banner into other markets around the world. But right now, we're focused on getting the transaction closed.

是的。當然。因此，正如我們在收購新聞稿中提到的那樣，我認為，我至少在準備好的評論中提到了這一點，收購最初集中在 CALA 地區。我們同樣對 CALA 中型企業的增長前景以及這項交易對我們在進一步加強我們在這個非常重要的地區的足跡方面的作用感到興奮。與我們多年來進行的許多收購一樣，一旦我們完成收購，一旦我們開始在 CALA 中開展業務，我們當然會評估該平台的適用性，以確定是否有必要推出部分或全部City Express旗下的子品牌進入全球其他市場。但現在，我們專注於完成交易。

But in general, is the mid-scale segment in the U.S., something whether it's that brand or not, that you kind of have your sight set on?

但總的來說，美國的中檔細分市場，無論是不是那個品牌，你都有點關注嗎？

Well, as you know, we are not in the mid-scale segment in the U.S. Certainly, this acquisition gives us the opportunity to evaluate whether it makes sense to enter mid-scale in any other market inclusive of the U.S.

好吧，如您所知，我們不在美國的中檔市場。當然，這次收購讓我們有機會評估在包括美國在內的任何其他市場進入中檔市場是否有意義。

And then just 1 follow-up on the -- your comments about the pipeline growth in rooms under construction. And you mentioned that it's been a very steady sort of rooms under construction in the last few quarters, you're steadily above that 200,000 unit rate. Is there -- can you give us a little bit of insight into sort of new construction starts in the U.S. only because sort of the broader U.S. market seems to be a slowing number of new construction starts in the hotel space. So just wondering how that -- the sort of incremental hotel starts looks?

然後就您對在建房間的管道增長的評論進行了 1 次跟進。你提到過去幾個季度在建的房間非常穩定，你穩定地高於 200,000 個單位。有沒有 - 你能給我們一些關於美國新開工的一些見解嗎？僅僅是因為更廣泛的美國市場似乎是酒店領域的新開工數量正在放緩。所以只是想知道那 - 那種增量酒店開始看起來？

Of course. So again, outside of Greater China, which is quite a volatile environment, we're pretty encouraged about what we're seeing around the world in terms of new construction starts. We are certainly not back to the peak of 2019, but as I mentioned earlier, new construction starts in the U.S. and Canada reached the highest quarterly level we've seen since the start of the pandemic.

當然。再說一次，在大中華區之外，這是一個相當不穩定的環境，我們對我們在世界各地看到的新開工情況感到非常鼓舞。我們當然不會回到 2019 年的高峰，但正如我之前提到的，美國和加拿大的新開工量達到了自大流行開始以來我們看到的最高季度水平。

And our next question will come from Smedes Rose with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Smedes Rose 和 Citi。

I wanted to ask a little bit about net unit growth as well going forward, just probably remains difficult for developers to kind of access capital. And I'm just wondering, do you see Marriott providing more of a backstop to developers either through loan guarantees or just direct financing?

我想問一些關於未來淨單位增長的問題，但開發商可能仍然難以獲得資金。我只是想知道，您是否認為萬豪通過貸款擔保或直接融資為開發商提供了更多的支持？

Sure, of course. So as both Leeny and I referenced, the availability of debt, particularly for new construction here in our biggest market is a bit challenging. The good news is the pipeline continues to be strong. We continue to see fallout from the pipeline below our historical averages. As has always been the case in constricted debt markets, brand affiliation, track record of the developer, strength of the sponsorship are what -- are the factors that capture the construction debt that is, in fact, available. And so we see signs that the strength of our brands continue to capture a disproportionate share of what's out there.

當然，當然。因此，正如 Leeny 和我所提到的那樣，債務的可用性，特別是對於我們最大市場的新建築而言，有點具有挑戰性。好消息是管道繼續強勁。我們繼續看到管道的影響低於我們的歷史平均水平。與緊縮的債務市場一樣，品牌從屬關係、開發商的往績記錄、贊助實力是捕捉建築債務的因素，事實上，這些因素是可用的。因此，我們看到有跡象表明，我們品牌的實力繼續在現有產品中佔據不成比例的份額。

A quarter or so ago, we announced closing on the financing for a $1.2 billion Gaylord Pacific Hotel in Chula Vista, California. This quarter, we announced the closing on financing for a new Ritz-Carlton Reserve in Papagayo, in Costa Rica. So we do feel like we are grabbing meaningful share of the dollars that are out there. And I'm sorry, Smedes, what was the second part of your question? Oh, on key money?

大約一個季度前，我們宣布完成對位於加利福尼亞州丘拉維斯塔的 12 億美元蓋洛德太平洋酒店的融資。本季度，我們宣布完成哥斯達黎加帕帕加約新麗思卡爾頓酒店的融資。因此，我們確實覺得我們正在從現有的美元中攫取有意義的份額。對不起，Smedes，你問題的第二部分是什麼？哦，關鍵錢？

Well, yes.

嗯，是。

Yes. Maybe I'll take a high-level shot at this, and Leeny can jump in with some more color. I don't see our tried-and-true philosophical approach to investment in projects changing even in this environment. Certainly, the competitive environment gets more competitive by the day, but we will use the say -- or apply the same disciplined lens that we've applied in the past. And among the long list of reasons, we'll continue to take that approach over the years when you look at the projects where we've leveraged the company's balance sheet to get to accelerate growth, those are projects that tend to generate outsized fee volumes.

是的。也許我會對此進行高級別的拍攝，Leeny 可以加入更多色彩。即使在這種環境下，我也不認為我們在項目投資方面久經考驗的哲學方法會發生變化。當然，競爭環境與日俱增，但我們會使用這個說法——或者應用我們過去應用的同樣嚴格的鏡頭。在眾多原因中，多年來，當您查看我們利用公司資產負債表加速增長的項目時，我們將繼續採用這種方法，這些項目往往會產生超額費用.

The only thing I'd add is that we are not seeing that we are increasing our financing support or investment support in a meaningful way for deals. I think at the end of the day, the first mortgage loans that projects are looking for do not typically come from Marriott and that has not changed. In terms of debt service guarantees, operating profit guarantees and key money, I would say we continue to see them in the same kind of frequency and proportion as we've seen in the past.

我唯一要補充的是，我們沒有看到我們正在以有意義的方式增加我們的融資支持或投資支持。我認為歸根結底，項目正在尋找的第一筆抵押貸款通常不是來自萬豪，而且這一點也沒有改變。在償債擔保、營業利潤擔保和關鍵資金方面，我想說我們繼續以與過去相同的頻率和比例看到它們。

And our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

I know you sort of touched on this and made some implications for next year. When we think about the right net unit growth to model for next year, a number of considerations. Number one, you did see your pipeline tick up a bit from 2Q, but then again, the trajectory of year-over-year quarterly growth has been going down. Is it a fair assumption when we think about the organic number to use that similar to this year's 3% for next year at this point?

我知道你在某種程度上談到了這一點，並對明年產生了一些影響。當我們考慮為明年建模的正確淨單位增長時，有許多考慮因素。第一，你確實看到你的管道比第二季度略有上升，但話說回來，同比季度增長的軌跡一直在下降。當我們考慮在這一點上使用類似於今年 3% 的有機數字時，這是一個公平的假設嗎？

Thank you, Patrick. Again, the -- some of the murkiness that's out there causes us to be reluctant to give you a hard number. What I will tell you is we are encouraged by deal volume. We are encouraged by the volume of under-construction projects. And maybe most notably in a debt constricted environment, we are particularly enthusiastic about the volume of conversion deals we're approving and signing, the volume of conversion deals that we're opening, and the volume of conversion discussions we're having, both on individual projects and multiunit opportunities.

謝謝你，帕特里克。再次，存在的一些模糊性使我們不願意給你一個確切的數字。我要告訴你的是，我們對交易量感到鼓舞。我們對在建項目的數量感到鼓舞。也許最值得注意的是，在債務緊縮的環境中，我們對我們正在批准和簽署的轉換交易的數量、我們正在開啟的轉換交易的數量以及我們正在進行的轉換討論的數量特別感興趣，兩者關於單個項目和多單位機會。

And our next question will come from David Katz with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。

I wanted to ask about IMFs, the release says 2/3 of them were international. Can you just add a little color on what percentage of North American hotels are earning them today? And any qualitative commentary about how that curve might roll out into the future would be helpful.

我想問一下國際貨幣基金組織，新聞稿說其中 2/3 是國際性的。您能否為今天北美酒店的收入百分比添加一點顏色？任何關於這條曲線如何延伸到未來的定性評論都會有所幫助。

Yes, sure. So let's talk about a couple of things. First of all, just from the dollar size, David, we were at $35 million of IMFs or about 1/3 from the U.S. and Canada, and that is pretty similar to what it was in Q3 '19. It was 39%. Now it was 26% of overall hotels in the U.S. and Canada earning incentive fees in Q3 and 56% in '19. But it's important to break out full service from limited service because the reality is that we had a large portfolio back in '19 of managed limited service hotels, which, as you know, left our system over a year ago.

是的，當然。所以讓我們談談幾件事。首先，僅從美元規模來看，大衛，我們的 IMF 為 3500 萬美元，或大約 1/3 來自美國和加拿大，這與 19 年第三季度的情況非常相似。為 39%。現在，在美國和加拿大的整體酒店中，有 26% 的酒店在第三季度獲得獎勵費，而在 19 年這一比例為 56%。但將全面服務與有限服務分開很重要，因為現實情況是，早在 19 年，我們就有大量的託管有限服務酒店，如您所知，這些酒店在一年前就離開了我們的系統。

So if you actually look at full service, we're actually at a slightly higher percentage of hotels earning IMFs in full service than we were in '19. And again, as we talked about before, in my comments that you saw house profit margins at our full-service hotels, up 200 basis points compared to '19 with our strong RevPAR performance and really strong efforts on the cost containment side. So I -- we feel good about what's going on. We've talked about -- hoped for expected growth in RevPAR in 2023, both U.S. and internationally, which should bode well for continued progress on incentive fees.

因此，如果你真的看全面服務，我們實際上在提供全面服務的酒店中獲得 IMF 的百分比略高於 19 年。同樣，正如我們之前談到的，在我的評論中，您看到我們全方位服務酒店的房屋利潤率與 19 年相比上升了 200 個基點，這得益於我們強勁的 RevPAR 表現以及在成本控制方面的大力努力。所以我 - 我們對正在發生的事情感覺很好。我們已經討論過——希望 2023 年美國和國際的 RevPAR 預期增長，這對於激勵費用的持續進展來說是個好兆頭。

Obviously, wage and benefit growth is something we're keeping an eye on, which has moderated a bit, although it still reflects the fact that we're in an inflationary environment. And then the last thing I'll say is we've continued to see improvement in the large urban markets where we've got a number of managed Full-Service hotels in the U.S. And we've seen nice progress as we moved into Q3 in some of those urban markets, and we expect them to continue on as we move into 2023 with that recovery.

顯然，工資和福利增長是我們一直在關注的，它已經有所放緩，儘管它仍然反映了我們處於通脹環境中的事實。然後我要說的最後一件事是，我們繼續看到大型城市市場的改善，我們在美國擁有許多託管的全方位服務酒店。隨著我們進入第三季度，我們看到了不錯的進展在其中一些城市市場中，我們預計隨著我們進入 2023 年的複蘇，它們將繼續存在。

Understood. And as my follow-up, the discussions happened during COVID, early on about the fee structures and the interactions between owners and yourselves, around contracts and service delivery, et cetera. And interestingly, it came up with -- in a couple of places from investors recently about what's changed. Now that at least for most of us, COVID is kind of in the rearview mirror. Can you just talk about how that's different and how that's manifesting itself in the numbers?

明白了。作為我的後續行動，討論發生在 COVID 期間，早期關於費用結構和業主與您自己之間的互動，圍繞合同和服務交付等。有趣的是，它在最近的幾個地方從投資者那裡提出了變化。現在至少對我們大多數人來說，COVID 有點像是後視鏡。你能談談這有什麼不同以及它是如何在數字中體現出來的嗎？

So fundamentally, the fee structures have not changed. So I would say, while we did things that on a temporary basis like helped on the reducing reimbursable costs and helping with extensions on accounts receivable, they were all really overwhelmingly temporary things. And then also, if you remember, 85% of the things that we charge are based on top line revenues of the hotel. So they flex as the revenues go up and down, which is helpful to the hotel owners.

所以從根本上說，收費結構沒有改變。所以我想說，雖然我們做了一些臨時性的事情，比如幫助降低可報銷成本和幫助延長應收賬款，但它們實際上都是臨時性的。此外，如果您還記得的話，我們收取的費用中有 85% 是基於酒店的收入。因此，它們會隨著收入的上升和下降而靈活調整，這對酒店業主很有幫助。

I think you see things like what we've talked about on our direct digital bookings, things like that, which do help the hotel margins by coming through that channel rather than coming through the OTAs as an example, all the productivity efforts that we've done to help improve our productivity per room. We've obviously worked very hard to make sure that we can make the most out of every revenue dollar that comes through the hotels. But as far as structural changes in the contracts, there's nothing really to look for there.

我認為您會看到我們在直接數字預訂中所討論的內容，諸如此類的事情確實通過該渠道而不是通過 OTA 來幫助酒店的利潤，例如，我們所做的所有生產力努力已經幫助提高了我們每個房間的生產力。顯然，我們非常努力地確保我們能夠充分利用酒店帶來的每一美元收入。但就合同的結構性變化而言，那裡沒有什麼可尋找的。

And maybe the only thing I would add, we obviously have brought back all of our quality metrics, so our QA audits, our RAN standards, you might think that the owners would baulk at that, I think, quite the contrary. They care deeply about their neighbors within the portfolio and continue to encourage us to bring back and enforce those standards. And then similarly, we obviously gave our owners and franchisees a measure of relief on renovation cycle at the very bottom of the trough of the pandemic.

也許我唯一要補充的是，我們顯然已經恢復了我們所有的質量指標，所以我們的 QA 審計、我們的 RAN 標準，你可能會認為業主會對此猶豫不決，我認為，恰恰相反。他們非常關心投資組合中的鄰居，並繼續鼓勵我們恢復並執行這些標準。然後類似地，我們顯然在大流行低谷的最底部為我們的業主和特許經營商提供了一些緩解裝修週期的措施。

We're bringing those requirements back but with some pragmatic perspective on hotels that are doing a terrific job on service as evidenced by those quality metrics and giving them the ability to selectively extend some of those renovation cycles.

我們正在恢復這些要求，但對那些在服務方面做得非常出色的酒店有一些務實的看法，這些質量指標證明了這一點，並使他們能夠有選擇地延長其中一些翻新周期。

Our next question will come from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Bill Crow 和 Raymond James。

Tony, we view hotel demand as kind of a lagging economic indicator, maybe 3 or 6 months. I'm curious whether you agree with that? And if so, what is the best, whether it's a consumer view or other economic data points to try and judge the macro change that, that may be a [thought]?

托尼，我們將酒店需求視為一種滯後的經濟指標，可能是 3 或 6 個月。我很好奇你是否同意這一點？如果是這樣，什麼是最好的，無論是消費者觀點還是其他經濟數據點來嘗試判斷宏觀變化，這可能是一個[想法]？

Yes, it's a good question. I would revert -- maybe refer back to some comments that both Leeny and I have made this morning about this extraordinarily short booking window, so probably not as much of a lagging indicator as we might have experienced pre-pandemic. While we are encouraged and optimistic by the forward booking data we see, I think Leeny said it best. We also recognize that we work in an industry that is cyclical and subject to economic cycles.

是的，這是個好問題。我會回复--也許會回顧一下 Leeny 和我今天早上就這個非常短的預訂窗口所做的一些評論，因此可能不像我們在大流行前經歷過的那樣滯後指標。雖然我們對看到的前瞻性預訂數據感到鼓舞和樂觀，但我認為 Leeny 說得最好。我們還認識到，我們在一個週期性且受經濟周期影響的行業工作。

And because of that short booking window, trends can change quickly. However, even if, in fact, we are in a recession or we fall into a recession, I think the company and travel more broadly are positioned a bit differently. Leeny, maybe you want to talk about that?

由於預訂窗口較短，趨勢可能會迅速變化。然而，即使我們實際上處於衰退或陷入衰退，我認為公司和更廣泛的旅行的定位有點不同。 Leeny，也許你想談談這個？

Yes. I think we definitely see that we could perform relatively better than we had in prior recessions. You've definitely got unemployment rates right now that are truly at historic lows. And while certainly what is happening with interest rates would be expected over time to influence that. We are a far cry from the 9.5% that we were in the great recession.

是的。我認為我們肯定看到我們的表現可以比之前的衰退中表現得更好。你現在肯定有真正處於歷史低位的失業率。當然，隨著時間的推移，預計利率會發生什麼影響這一點。我們與大衰退中的 9.5% 相去甚遠。

And similarly, when you think about pent-up savings and the desire for people to take and do travel to not assume that they can put it off that they really don't want to postpone it and that there is still both business and leisure trips that families and consumers want to make. And while consumer health is something that we will be watching extremely closely, for the moment, there does look to be some extra room there that could help as we go into a potential recession.

同樣，當您考慮被壓抑的儲蓄以及人們旅行和旅行的願望時，不要假設他們可以推遲，他們真的不想推遲，而且商務旅行和休閒旅行仍然存在家庭和消費者想要做的。雖然消費者健康是我們將密切關注的事情，但就目前而言，當我們進入潛在的衰退時，那裡確實有一些額外的空間可以提供幫助。

That's helpful. If I could just ask my follow-up question. We understand that owners' meetings recently, the topic of consistency of brand has kind of come up. Is there some complaints about not removing enough rooms from the system, you talked about net unit growth, a low number of removals. Should we expect that to go up over the next couple of years as you get back to kind of enforcing capital spending?

這很有幫助。如果我可以問我的後續問題。據了解，最近在業主大會上，品牌一致性的話題有些浮出水面。是否有人抱怨沒有從系統中移除足夠的房間，您談到了淨單位增長，移除數量少。隨著您重新開始強制資本支出，我們是否應該期望在接下來的幾年中這一數字會上升？

So maybe I'll take the first part, and Leeny can take the second. As I mentioned earlier, the vast majority of our owners are quite pleased that we've brought back our quality metrics and quality requirements they care, as you point out, meaningfully about the quality of the overall portfolio.

所以也許我會參加第一部分，Leeny 可以參加第二部分。正如我之前提到的，我們的絕大多數所有者都非常高興我們帶回了他們關心的質量指標和質量要求，正如您所指出的，對整個產品組合的質量有意義。

While there may be some pockets of frustration, I think there's also a broad understanding that it was appropriate to suspend those processes during the depths of the pandemic and that it will take us a bit now that they are reinstated to get back to having enough empirical data to be a little firmer on enforcement.

雖然可能會有一些挫敗感，但我認為還有一個廣泛的理解是，在大流行最嚴重的時候暫停這些過程是適當的，現在我們需要一點時間來恢復它們以恢復有足夠的經驗數據在執法方面更加堅定。

The only part that I would add is that for the owners who did do some renovations during COVID, I think the results that they're seeing are powerful. And I think our good incentive for other owners to do the same. We did -- as Tony mentioned, we did give owners a bit of a pass in the heart of COVID to help everybody manage through the pandemic. But I think as we are coming out of it, I think the entire industry recognizes the importance of having both product and service up to where our consumers, our guests expect them to be given the prices that people are paying.

我要補充的唯一部分是，對於在 COVID 期間進行了一些裝修的業主，我認為他們看到的結果是強大的。而且我認為我們很好地激勵了其他所有者也這樣做。我們做到了——正如托尼所提到的，我們確實在 COVID 的核心為業主提供了一點通行證，以幫助每個人應對大流行。但我認為，隨著我們走出困境，我認為整個行業都認識到將產品和服務都提供給我們的消費者的重要性，我們的客人希望他們得到人們支付的價格。

So we do expect there to be additional renovations and frankly, probably a pickup in renovations now that we're largely through that impact and believe that the returns on those renovations will be strong. For the time being, we certainly continue to see that our -- we expect our deletion rate to stay in this 1% to 1.5% rate that we've talked about for several years. We will, as we get into the new year, refine that a bit as we go through the entire budget process. But I think that sort of range should be your expectation.

因此，我們確實預計會有額外的裝修，坦率地說，現在可能會在裝修中有所回升，因為我們基本上已經經歷了這種影響，並且相信這些裝修的回報將是強勁的。就目前而言，我們當然會繼續看到我們的 - 我們預計我們的刪除率將保持在我們已經討論了幾年的 1% 到 1.5% 的速度。隨著我們進入新的一年，我們將在完成整個預算流程時對其進行一些改進。但我認為這種範圍應該是你的期望。

And our next question will come from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊的 Brandt Montour。

So maybe -- so when you think about corporate transient recovery and specifically focusing on your largest accounts, the larger corporates in the U.S., what is the tone that you kind of get back from them when you talk to them about how they're planning for the future. Obviously, we know that near term, you're seeing good trends, but we hear and see headlines regarding -- especially in tech some larger companies pulling back on expenses and things like that. I'm just curious how you feel about some of those things?

所以也許——所以當你考慮企業的短暫復甦並特別關注你的最大客戶、美國的大型企業時，當你與他們談論他們的計劃時，你的語氣是什麼為未來。顯然，我們知道短期內你會看到良好的趨勢，但我們會聽到並看到有關的頭條新聞——尤其是在科技領域，一些大公司縮減了開支和類似的事情。我只是好奇你對這些事情的感覺如何？

Sure. So at a macro level, we are, again, encouraged by the sequential quarter-over-quarter improvement in business transient. You'll recall that in the U.S. and Canada, BT was down almost 25% in the first quarter. That dropped to 13% in Q2 and just down 11% in Q3. As we've discussed in the past, small- and medium-sized companies, which are about 60% of those BT room nights are fully recovered. And in fact, in Q3, their room nights were up about 10%.

當然。因此，在宏觀層面上，我們再次對業務瞬態的環比改善感到鼓舞。你會記得，在美國和加拿大，英國電信在第一季度下跌了近 25%。第二季度下降至 13%，第三季度僅下降 11%。正如我們過去所討論的，大約 60% 的 BT 間夜數已完全恢復的中小型公司。事實上，在第三季度，他們的房晚增加了約 10%。

When you pivot to the larger companies, your comments are right. Special corporate, which tends to be a lot of those big companies, their room nights were down about 17% in the quarter. And when you start to look at the specific tiers within special corporate, you brought up tech as an example. They were down about 23% in the quarter. Trying to respond more qualitatively in terms of what we're hearing from them. I think it's really embedded in the short booking window. They absolutely talk about the value of face-to-face interaction with each other, with their customers, with their clients.

當您轉向較大的公司時，您的意見是正確的。特別公司，往往是很多大公司，他們的房間夜數在本季度下降了約 17%。當您開始查看特殊公司中的特定層級時，您會以技術為例。他們在本季度下跌了約 23%。試圖根據我們從他們那裡聽到的內容做出更定性的回應。我認為它確實嵌入在短預訂窗口中。他們絕對談論與彼此、與客戶、與客戶進行面對面互動的價值。

But they are also, again, much like our group customers willing to trade a bit of pricing for flexibility. And then the last thing I would say to try to address your question, we are relatively early in the special corporate rate negotiations. But what we're seeing in terms of the pricing and our growing confidence that we're going to end up at least with high single-digit year-over-year rates is pretty encouraging as well.

但他們也很像我們的集團客戶，他們願意以一些定價來換取靈活性。然後我要說的最後一件事是試圖解決你的問題，我們在特殊公司利率談判中相對較早。但是，我們在定價方面所看到的情況以及我們對我們最終將至少以高個位數的同比增長率充滿信心的增長也非常令人鼓舞。

Great. I appreciate it. And then on conversion activity, which you guys did talk about and hoping to ask it in a slightly different way. But just given the sort of counter cyclicality of that activity in past cycles, and sort of one would think maybe that we're sort of at the tail end of conversion activity that was elevated because of COVID, but maybe that there's some -- a pickup -- there could be a pickup of conversion activity if we went into another -- if we went into a recession. Is that how you think about it at this point?

偉大的。我很感激。然後是轉換活動，你們確實談到了，並希望以稍微不同的方式提出問題。但是，考慮到過去週期中該活動的那種反週期性，有人會認為我們可能處於由於 COVID 而增加的轉換活動的尾端，但也許有一些 - 一個回升——如果我們進入另一個——如果我們陷入衰退，轉換活動可能會有所回升。你現在是這麼想的嗎？

It's not. It's not. I think the reality is a couple of factors are in play here that give us even more confidence about the runway we have for conversions. I think number 1 for Marriott, we've never had a better stack of conversion-friendly brands and across multiple quality tiers, which is really encouraging for us. Number two, we talked a bit about the constriction in the debt markets. There is meaningfully, not meaningfully -- relatively more debt available for existing assets than there is new construction but the same lenses from the lender's perspective apply, brand affiliation, track record.

它不是。它不是。我認為現實是有幾個因素在起作用，這讓我們對我們擁有的轉換跑道更有信心。我認為萬豪排名第一，我們從未有過更好的轉換友好品牌和多個質量等級，這對我們來說確實令人鼓舞。第二，我們談到了債務市場的收縮。有意義的，沒有意義的——現有資產的可用債務比新建築的債務要多，但從貸方的角度來看，同樣的鏡頭也適用，品牌從屬關係，業績記錄。

And so in order to source the debt that is available for existing assets, I think you see existing owners and buyers of assets thinking longer and harder about brand affiliation. And then I think third, I mentioned this in response to 1 of the earlier questions, the uptick we've seen in multiunit conversion discussions is a little different than what we've seen at the tail end of other cycles.

因此，為了獲得可用於現有資產的債務，我認為您會看到現有資產的所有者和購買者對品牌附屬關係的思考時間越來越長。然後我想第三點，我在回答前面的一個問題時提到了這一點，我們在多單元轉換討論中看到的上升與我們在其他週期的尾端看到的略有不同。

And our final question will come from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Duane Pfennigwerth 和 Evercore ISI。

Nice to speak with you. On the business transient commentary, which I think you said down 11%, I wondered if you could provide some regional color. Where would you mark that recovery across the geographies that you touch? And then just as we think about the shape of that recovery curve, we've seen some nice sequential improvement here, but should we be thinking about a plateau through early next year when we have new sort of budget cycles? Or are there regions where you still think sort of sequential improvement into 4Q on BT is on the table?

很高興與您交談。關於商業短暫評論，我認為你說下降了 11%，我想知道你是否可以提供一些區域色彩。您會在哪裡標記您所接觸的地區的複蘇？然後就像我們考慮恢復曲線的形狀一樣，我們已經看到了一些不錯的連續改善，但是當我們有新的預算週期時，我們是否應該考慮到明年初的平穩期？還是在某些地區，您仍然認為 BT 第四季度的連續改進已經擺在桌面上？

Sure. So let's talk -- I'm going to reference back to Tony's comments about where roughly 60% of our BT in Q3 was from small- and medium-sized companies. And that, frankly, is sprinkled all over the country. So that's going to be everywhere from New York to Tulsa to smaller markets that are -- at limited-service hotels rather than -- the larger special corporate accounts obviously are more headquartered in the urban large cities.

當然。所以讓我們談談 - 我將參考托尼關於第三季度大約 60% 的 BT 來自中小型公司的評論。而且，坦率地說，它遍布全國。因此，這將無處不在，從紐約到塔爾薩，再到較小的市場——在有限服務酒店，而不是——較大的特殊公司賬戶顯然更多地將總部設在城市大城市。

The thing I will say is we've continued to see progress as we move too along. When you think of, for example, you think of New York City, which has moved quite nicely during the year, with the improvement in BT, where they were down 29% in Q1. Today New York City was actually 3% higher in Q3 than 2019. So I think you will continue to see the progress, the trends in BT are similar, both internationally as well as in the U.S. I do think as we move into 2023, a lot of this world depend on the state of the economy. So kind of having a prediction about exactly where BT will go, it is tough to pinpoint.

我要說的是，隨著我們的發展，我們繼續看到進步。例如，當您想到紐約市時，您會想到紐約市，該市在這一年中的表現相當不錯，BT 有所改善，第一季度下降了 29%。今天紐約市在第三季度實際上比 2019 年高出 3%。所以我認為您將繼續看到進展，BT 的趨勢是相似的，無論是在國際上還是在美國。我認為隨著我們進入 2023 年，這個世界的很多地方都取決於經濟狀況。因此，要準確預測 BT 的發展方向，很難確定。

We do look for continued improvement and think it will ultimately get back to where it was, but the exact timing of that hard to say. And then the last thing I'll point out is just the reality that we have seen it moderate in terms of its rate of improvement as we've moved into Q3, and I would expect to see that moderation continue.

我們確實在尋求持續改進，並認為它最終會回到原來的水平，但具體時間很難說。然後我要指出的最後一件事是，隨著我們進入第三季度，我們已經看到它在改善速度方面有所緩和，我希望看到這種緩和繼續下去。

And it appears we have no further questions at this time. I'll turn the program back to Tony Capuano for any closing remarks.

看來我們目前沒有進一步的問題。我將把程序轉回給 Tony Capuano 以完成任何結束語。

Great. Well, thank you all again for joining us this morning. Thanks for your continued interest in Marriott. Get back on the road, we look forward to seeing you in our hotels in the coming weeks and months. Have a great day.

偉大的。好吧，再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。感謝您一直以來對萬豪酒店的關注。繼續前進，我們期待在接下來的幾周和幾個月內在我們的酒店見到您。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與，您可以隨時斷開連接。