萬豪國際 (MAR) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Marriott International's Third Quarter 2022 earnings. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jackie Burka, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2022年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次電話會議可能會被錄音。現在，我榮幸地將今天的會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁傑基·伯卡女士。請開始吧。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer; and Executive Vice President, Business Operations; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝大家。早安，歡迎參加萬豪酒店集團2022年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席會議的有：執行長托尼‧卡普阿諾 (Tony Capuano)；財務長兼業務營運執行副總裁莉妮‧奧伯格 (Leeny Oberg)；以及投資者關係副總裁貝齊‧達姆 (Betsy Dahm)。

I will remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. Please also note that unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy and average daily rate comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and include hotels temporary closed due to COVID-19.

我在此提醒各位，我們今天所作的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致未來的實際結果與我們評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿和評論中的陳述僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。另請注意，除非另有說明，我們的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）入住率和平均每日房價評論反映的是系統範圍內可比酒店的固定匯率結果，並且包含因新冠疫情而暫時關閉的酒店。

RevPAR occupancy and ADR comparisons between 2022 and 2019 reflect properties that are defined as comparable as of September 30, 2022, even if they were not open and operating for the full year 2019 or they did not meet all the other criteria for comparable in 2019. Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons to prepandemic for 2019 are comparing the same time period in each year. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

2022 年與 2019 年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 入住率和平均房價 (ADR) 對比反映的是截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日被定義為可比較物業的數據，即使這些物業在 2019 年並非全年營業，或者在 2019 年不符合所有其他可比物業。此外，除非另有說明，所有與 2019 年疫情前數據的對比均指每年同一時期的數據。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及今天發言中提及的所有非公認會計準則 (非 GAAP) 財務指標的調節表。

And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

現在我將把電話交給東尼。

Thanks, Jackie, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We had an outstanding third quarter. Quarter rose above 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic began, up nearly 2%. RevPAR compared to 2019 improved sequentially from the second quarter in every region around the world. Global occupancy rose to 69% while ADR outpaced by 2019, excuse me, by a remarkable 10%. Compared to prepandemic levels, worldwide RevPAR in September reached a new monthly high watermark, increasing more than 4% or nearly 7%, excluding Greater China.

謝謝Jackie，也謝謝各位今天早上參與我們的節目。我們第三季業績非常出色。自疫情爆發以來，第三季業績首度超過2019年同期水平，增幅近2%。全球各地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）均較2019年同期有所提升，較上季第二季有所成長。全球入住率上升至69%，平均房價（ADR）較2019年同期成長了驚人的10%。與疫情前水準相比，9月全球每間可供出租客房收入創下新的月度新高，增幅超過4%，接近7%（不包括大中華區）。

During the quarter, leisure demand remained strong, well above 2019 levels. In the U.S. and Canada, Full-Service group revenue for the quarter showed continued growth, ending up 3% over the same quarter in 2019. Fourth quarter Full-Service group revenue is currently pacing up 4%, but is likely to improve further given the strong last-minute group bookings that we've seen all year. The trend towards last-minute bookings has led to meaningful compression in pricing power, helping group ADR for new bookings rise each quarter this year.

本季休閒需求依然強勁，遠高於2019年同期水準。在美國和加拿大，本季全服務團體營收持續成長，較2019年同期成長3%。第四季全服務團體營收目前成長率為4%，鑑於全年強勁的臨近出發團體預訂，預計增速將進一步提升。接近出發預訂的趨勢導致定價權顯著收窄，推動今年每季新預訂的團體平均房價(ADR)逐季上漲。

At our managed hotels in the U.S., ADR for in-the-year, for-the-year group bookings made in the third quarter rose 17% compared to same year bookings made in the 2019, 3rd quarter. A significant jump from the 6% increase we saw in the first quarter. ADR for group bookings made in the third quarter for 2023 outpaced 2019, 3rd quarter bookings for events in 2000 by 24%. Business transient demand also continued to improve during the quarter, although it still lags 2019 levels. Third quarter business transient room nights in the U.S. and Canada were 11% below 2019. We are currently in the midst of our special corporate negotiations for 2023 and are very pleased with how they're progressing. After 2 years of holding rates steady, the early results look positive for at least high single-digit year-over-year rate growth.

在美國，我們旗下飯店第三季全年團體預訂的平均房價（ADR）較2019年同期成長17%，較第一季6%的增幅顯著提升。 2023年第三季團體預訂的平均房價較2019年第三季同期成長24%。商務散客需求在本季也持續改善，但仍低於2019年的水準。美國和加拿大第三季商務散客客房夜數較2019年同期下降11%。我們目前正在進行2023年的企業專案談判，進展順利，令人欣喜。經過兩年的房價穩定期，初步結果顯示，房價有望達到至少接近兩位數的年增率。

Third quarter day-of-the-week trends continue to suggest that travelers are combining leisure and business trips. In fact, the average length of a transient business trip has increased meaningfully, and year-to-date is up more than 15% compared to 2019. With borders reopened in most countries around the world, rising cross-border travel helped spur demand during the quarter, especially in Europe and in the Caribbean and Latin America or CALA region. Cross-border guests accounted for 15% of our global room nights in the third quarter, an uptick from 12% in the first quarter of this year. In 2019, 18% of travel to our properties was from cross-border guests. So we anticipate additional upside from international travel especially from Greater China once stringent travel restrictions are relaxed.

第三季的周內出行趨勢持續表明，旅客傾向於將休閒旅行和商務旅行相結合。事實上，短期商務旅行的平均時長顯著增加，今年迄今的累計時長比2019年同期成長超過15%。隨著全球大部分國家重新開放邊境，跨境旅行的成長刺激了本季的需求，尤其是在歐洲以及加勒比海和拉丁美洲（CALA）地區。第三季度，跨國旅客占我們全球客房夜數的15%，高於今年第一季的12%。 2019年，跨境旅客占我們飯店入住量的18%。因此，我們預計，一旦嚴格的旅行限制放寬，國際旅行，特別是來自大中華區的旅行，將帶來進一步的成長。

Given rapidly rising interest rates and growing concerns about a possible global recession, we are closely monitoring consumer and macroeconomic trends. There is no doubt that the hospitality industry is impacted by economic cycles. And with transient booking windows averaging only about 3 weeks, trends could change relatively quickly. However, we have yet to see signs of a slowdown in global lodging demand. In fact, we've seen just the opposite. Booking trends remain very healthy. Given sustained high levels of employment, consumer trends prioritizing experiences versus goods, pent-up travel demand and a high level of consumer savings, travel spending has been incredibly resilient.

鑑於利率快速上升以及對全球經濟衰退的擔憂日益加劇，我們正密切關註消費者和宏觀經濟趨勢。毫無疑問，酒店業會受到經濟週期的影響。由於短期預訂窗口平均只有三週左右，趨勢可能會迅速變化。然而，我們尚未看到全球住宿需求放緩的跡象。事實上，我們看到的情況恰恰相反。預訂趨勢依然非常健康。鑑於就業率持續高企、消費者趨勢優先考慮體驗而非商品、被壓抑的旅行需求以及消費者高儲蓄水平，旅遊支出展現出了驚人的韌性。

In October, demand remained strong across our regions, with the exception of Greater China, where trends are still low. Our powerful Marriott Bonvoy program grew to 173 million members at the end of the third quarter. The program achieved record penetration levels in the quarter reaching 60% in the U.S. and Canada and 53% globally. Members also continued to engage with our co-brand credit cards, which had another solid quarter. After recently making significant enhancements by adding new benefits to many of our U.S. cards, sign-ups have well exceeded expectations.

10月份，除大中華區外，我們其他地區的需求依然強勁，大中華區的需求趨勢仍然低迷。截至第三季末，我們強大的萬豪旅享家會員計畫會員人數成長至1.73億人。該計劃在本季度實現了創紀錄的滲透率，在美國和加拿大達到60%，全球滲透率達到53%。會員們也繼續積極使用我們的聯名信用卡，該系列信用卡在本季表現穩健。近期，我們為多款美國聯名信用卡新增了多項權益，大幅提升了其價值，新卡註冊量遠超預期。

This led to record new cardholder acquisitions as well as record spending for the first 9 months of this year. We also introduced 2 mid-tier cards at the end of September, which should help drive strong growth going forward. While much smaller fee contributors that are U.S. co-brand cards, we have similarly seen record growth internationally this year in new card members and total card spend.

這使得今年前九個月的新持卡人數量和消費額都創下歷史新高。我們在九月底還推出了兩張中階信用卡，這將有助於推動未來的強勁成長。雖然美國聯名卡的手續費貢獻較小，但今年我們在國際市場的新持卡人和信用卡總消費額方面也同樣實現了創紀錄的增長。

This has been particularly driven by China, where we've had great traction after launching our first cards there in July. Our Bonvoy members have been increasingly interacting with the platform through our direct digital channels, which helps boost owner and franchisee profitability. Since 2019, our share of room nights booked through direct digital channels has increased more than 5 percentage points to 38% while our distribution through OTAs has risen by less than 1 percentage point to 12%.

這主要得益於中國市場的強勁表現，自7月在中國推出首張信用卡以來，我們取得了顯著進展。萬豪旅享家會員越來越多地透過我們的直接數位管道與平台互動，這有助於提升業主和加盟商的獲利能力。自2019年以來，透過直接數位管道預訂的客房夜數佔比增長超過5個百分點，達到38%，而透過線上旅行社（OTA）的分銷份額僅增長不到1個百分點，達到12%。

The power of Bonvoy in our direct channels has also been evident in our latest offering, the Ritz-Carlton Yacht which made its inaugural voyage from Barcelona last month. Remarkably, around 2/3 of all bookings for this incredible brand extension have been through direct channels, which is many times above the rates most cruise companies experience. Additionally, Bonvoy members account for more than half of the Yacht bookings. We look forward to more ships joining the portfolio in the future.

萬豪旅享家在我們直銷管道的強大影響力也體現在我們最新推出的麗茲卡爾頓遊艇上。這艘遊艇上個月從巴塞隆納首航。值得一提的是，這艘令人驚豔的品牌延伸產品約有三分之二的預訂來自直銷管道，遠高於大多數郵輪公司的預訂率。此外，萬豪旅享家會員的預訂量佔遊艇預訂總量的一半以上。我們期待未來有更多遊艇加入我們的船隊。

Shifting to the development front, our pipeline grew for the fourth quarter in a row, totaling more than 502,000 rooms by the end of the third quarter. Signing activity in the quarter remained healthy in most regions of the world. Our development team continues to be laser focused on conversions, a particularly bright spot in the development story. Conversions represented 21% of room signings and 27% of room openings in the quarter. We are very enthusiastic about the level of conversations on conversions, including for multiunit conversion opportunities.

在開發方面，我們的專案儲備連續第四個季度成長，截至第三季末，客房總數超過50.2萬間。本季度，全球大部分地區的簽約活動依然保持良好勢頭。我們的開發團隊繼續專注於專案轉換，這是開發方面一個特別亮眼的亮點。本季度，專案轉換佔客房簽約量的21%，佔新開幕客房量的27%。我們對專案轉換的洽談進度非常滿意，包括多單元轉換專案。

Outside the Greater China, we were pleased to see new construction starts pick up nicely in the third quarter. While not yet back to 2019 levels, new construction starts in the U.S. reached the highest quarterly level since the pandemic began. For full year 2022, we now expect gross rooms growth of approximately 4.5% compared to our prior expectation of closer to 5%. The change is primarily a result of fewer expected openings in Greater China as the lockdowns there have extended construction time lines. The good news is that we have not seen deals in Greater China or in any of our regions falling out of the pipeline at a higher than usual rate. With just 2 months left in the year, we now expect deletions at the bottom end of our prior guidance. Deletions could be about 1.5% for 2022 or 1%, excluding the 50 basis point impact from our exit from Russia.

除大中華區以外，我們很高興看到第三季新開工量顯著回升。雖然尚未恢復到2019年的水平，但美國的新開工量已達到疫情爆發以來的最高季度水準。我們目前預計2022年全年客房總數將成長約4.5%，低於先前接近5%的預期。這項變化主要是由於大中華區預計新開業的酒店數量減少，因為當地的封鎖措施延長了建設工期。好消息是，無論是在大中華區還是其他任何地區，我們都沒有看到交易取消的速度高於平常。距離年底僅剩兩個月，我們目前預計取消的交易數量將處於先前預期的下限。 2022年全年取消的交易數量可能約為1.5%，若不計退出俄羅斯市場帶來的50個基點的影響，則可能為1%。

So our net rooms growth for 2022 is likely to be around 3% or 3.5% before factoring in the deletions in Russia. We're always looking at opportunities that help broaden the offering for our guests as well as our owners and franchisees. Last month, we announced our agreement to acquire the City Express brand portfolio. which is currently comprised of 152 hotels with over 17,000 rooms in the CALA region. We are quite bullish on the moderately priced mid-scale space, which has meaningful growth potential. Upon closing this transaction, we will immediately gain a significant foothold in this high-growth segment in CALA, while also becoming the largest hotel company in the region.

因此，在未計入俄羅斯的撤出項目之前，我們2022年的淨客房成長率可能在3%到3.5%左右。我們始終在尋找能夠幫助我們為賓客、業主和加盟商拓展服務的機會。上個月，我們宣布達成協議，收購City Express品牌組合，該組合目前在CALA地區擁有152家飯店，超過17,000間客房。我們非常看好中價位的中檔飯店市場，該市場具有巨大的成長潛力。交易完成後，我們將立即在CALA地區的高成長細分市場佔據重要地位，同時也將成為該地區最大的飯店公司。

We are incredibly excited about the opportunity to expand in this segment in CALA as well as other locations around the world. If the transaction closes before year-end, our 2022 gross rooms growth could be around 5.5%, and our net rooms growth could be approximately 4%. We really look forward to working with the City Express team. We expect solid rooms growth going forward, given the attractiveness of our portfolio of global brands, our powerful loyalty program, our momentum around conversions and our industry-leading pipeline. While the exact timing will depend on how new construction starts trend from here, we remain confident that over the next several years, we will return to our pre-pandemic mid-single-digit net rooms growth.

我們非常高興有機會在CALA以及全球其他地區拓展這一業務領域。如果交易在年底前完成，我們2022年的客房總成長率預計約為5.5%，淨客房成長率預計約為4%。我們非常期待與City Express團隊合作。鑑於我們全球品牌組合的吸引力、強大的會員忠誠度計劃、強勁的轉換率以及業界領先的專案儲備，我們預計未來客房數量將保持穩健成長。雖然具體時間取決於新項目開工量的未來趨勢，但我們仍有信心在未來幾年內恢復到疫情前的中個位數淨客房增長率水準。

Now before I turn it over to Leeny, I just want to recognize and thank our associates around the world for their continued commitment, passion and resilience. Leeny?

在把發言權交給莉妮之前，我只想感謝我們世界各地的同事們一直以來的奉獻、熱情和韌性。莉妮？

Thank you, Tony. We had excellent financial performance again this quarter, driven by continued momentum in global RevPAR growth. In the U.S. and Canada, third quarter RevPAR was 3.5%, above pre-pandemic levels with ADR surpassing 2019 by more than 10%. RevPAR for all market types; primary, secondary and tertiary and all brand types from luxury through extended stay was more fully recovered for the first time. With the exception of Asia Pacific, our international regions posted incredibly strong RevPAR growth as restrictions across most countries fully lifted. Europe, in particular, benefited from a large increase in U.S. leisure demand, thanks to the strong dollar.

謝謝托尼。本季我們再次取得了優異的財務業績，這主要得益於全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）持續成長的勢頭。在美國和加拿大，第三季RevPAR達到3.5%，高於疫情前水平，平均房價（ADR）較2019年同期成長超過10%。所有市場類型（包括一級、二級和三級市場）以及所有品牌類型（從豪華酒店到長期住宿酒店）的RevPAR均首次實現了較為全面的復甦。除了亞太地區外，隨著大多數國家全面解除限制措施，我們其他國際地區的RevPAR均實現強勁成長。尤其值得一提的是，由於美元走強，美國休閒旅遊需求大幅成長，歐洲市場從中受益良多。

Compared to 2019, third quarter RevPAR rose 6% in Europe, nearly 19% in the Middle East and Africa and nearly 18% in CALA. RevPAR is still lagging behind 2019 levels in Greater China and in our Asia Pacific, excluding China or APAC region. Greater China improved the most in the quarter with RevPAR 23% below 2019, 30 percentage points better than a quarter ago. However, the recovery there remains uneven given China's renewed commitment to its strict 0 COVID policy. The good news is that we continue to see that when a market reopens for domestic travel after a lockdown, lodging demand rebounds very quickly.

與2019年同期相比，第三季歐洲的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）成長了6%，中東和非洲成長了近19%，中美洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比海地區（CALA）成長了近18%。大中華區和亞太地區（不包括中國）的RevPAR仍低於2019年的水準。大中華區在本季的RevPAR改善最為顯著，比2019年同期下降了23%，比上一季改善了30個百分點。然而，鑑於中國重新實施嚴格的「零感染」防疫政策，該地區的復甦仍然不均衡。好消息是，我們持續看到，當一個市場在封鎖後重新開放國內旅行時，住宿需求會迅速反彈。

In APAC, South Korea joined India and Australia in crossing the full recovery mark, but this was offset by Japan's borders remaining closed until the end of the quarter. Third quarter RevPAR in APAC was 14% below pre-pandemic levels, an 8 percentage point improvement from a quarter ago. As we move through the fourth quarter, APAC is benefiting from a recovery in airlift in Japan's now open orders. Three quarter -- third quarter total gross fees of $1.1 billion rose 11% compared to 2019, exceeding the top end of our guidance.

在亞太地區，韓國與印度和澳洲一樣實現了全面復甦，但由於日本邊境一直關閉到本季末，這一復甦勢頭被部分抵消。亞太地區第三季每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）比疫情前水準低14%，較上一季改善8個百分點。進入第四季度，隨著日本航空運力的復甦以及訂單的恢復，亞太地區正從中受益。第三季總營收達11億美元，較2019年同期成長11%，超過了我們先前的預期上限。

Growth was driven by RevPAR improvement and room additions as well as another quarter of strong non-RevPAR related fees. Those fees totaled $192 million in the third quarter, largely aided by ongoing growth in our co-brand credit card fees, which rose 22% year-over-year. The strength of our industry-leading luxury portfolio also contributed significantly to fee growth in the quarter. Gross fees from our luxury properties were up 13% versus the same quarter in 2019, even with Greater China's weaker performance. While our luxury properties account for 21% of our managed rooms, they contributed 34% of our total incentive management fees in the third quarter.

成長主要得益於每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的提升和客房數量的增加，以及連續第二個季度強勁的非RevPAR相關費用。第三季度，這些費用總額達1.92億美元，主要得益於聯名信用卡費用的持續成長，較去年同期成長22%。我們行業領先的豪華酒店組合的強勁表現也顯著推動了本季費用的成長。儘管大中華區業績疲軟，但我們豪華飯店的總費用仍比2019年同期成長了13%。雖然我們的豪華飯店僅佔管理客房總數的21%，但它們在第三季貢獻了我們總獎勵管理費用的34%。

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA also exceeded the high end of our guidance, outpacing the same quarter in 2019 by 9%. With the strong U.S. dollar, foreign exchange net of hedging, negatively impacted adjusted EBITDA by $22 million in the quarter, some of which was included in our guidance a quarter ago. This negative currency translation was more than made up for by the positive impact from increased U.S. leisure travel abroad. We estimate net of our hedges, a 100 basis point change in the U.S. dollar could affect full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA by less than $10 million.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 也超出了我們先前的預期上限，比 2019 年同期成長了 9%。受強勢美元影響，扣除對沖後的外匯匯率淨額對本季調整後 EBITDA 造成了 2,200 萬美元的負面影響，其中一部分已包含在我們上個季度的預期中。但美國休閒旅遊出境人數的增加帶來的正面影響足以彌補這不利的匯率影響。我們預計，扣除對沖後，美元匯率每變動 100 個基點，對 2022 年全年調整後 EBITDA 的影響將不到 1,000 萬美元。

G&A and other expenses totaled $216 million in the third quarter, better than our guidance, largely reflecting lower-than-expected administrative costs and bad debt. At the hotel level, we remain focused on containing operating costs for our owners and franchisees while also delivering superior service to our guests. With ADR of 15% above 2019 and our significant productivity enhancements, third quarter profit margins at our U.S. and Canada managed hotels were 2 full percentage points above 2019 levels despite meaningful wage and benefit inflation. Wage and benefit growth while still high, continued to moderate in the third quarter.

第三季一般及行政費用及其他費用總計2.16億美元，優於預期，主要得益於低於預期的行政成本和壞帳。在飯店層面，我們持續致力於控制業主和加盟商的營運成本，同時為賓客提供卓越的服務。儘管薪資和福利大幅上漲，但由於平均房價較2019年增長15%，且生產效率顯著提高，我們在美國和加拿大管理的酒店第三季度利潤率仍比2019年同期水平高出2個百分點。薪資和福利成長雖然仍然較高，但在第三季繼續放緩。

Let me now turn to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 guidance, the details of which are in our press release. As we headed into the end of the year, we're very pleased with the strong continued momentum in our business. Group's transient bookings are showing further gains against 2019. In both the U.S. and Canada and internationally, we expect fourth quarter RevPAR compared to pre-pandemic levels to accelerate from the third quarter, even with anticipated weaker demand in Greater China. Compared to 2019, fourth quarter RevPAR could increase 4% to 6% in the U.S. and Canada, be down 2% to flat internationally and increase 2% to 4% globally.

現在，我想談談我們對2022年第四季和全年的業績展望，詳情請見新聞稿。隨著年末的臨近，我們對業務持續強勁的成長動能感到非常滿意。集團的散客預訂量較2019年進一步成長。我們預計，即使大中華區的需求預計有所疲軟，第四季度美國、加拿大和國際市場的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）與疫情前水準相比，仍將較第三季度有所提升。與2019年相比，第四季美國和加拿大市場的RevPAR可能成長4%至6%，國際市場可能下降2%或持平，全球市場可能成長2%至4%。

Worldwide fourth quarter RevPAR could increase 27% to 29% over fourth quarter 2021. We're still working through our 2023 budgets and recognize that there is heightened macro uncertainty. That said, we currently think 2023 global RevPAR could increase nicely year-over-year, driven by gains in both the U.S. and Canada and internationally. Each quarter could see growth compared to this year and particularly strong growth in the first quarter due to the easier comparison given the impact of the Omicron variant in early 2022.

全球第四季每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）預計較2021年第四季成長27%至29%。我們仍在製定2023年預算，並意識到宏觀經濟存在較大的不確定性。儘管如此，我們目前認為，在美加及國際市場成長的推動下，2023年全球RevPAR可望實現可觀的年成長。預計每季都將較今年有所成長，尤其第一季由於2022年初Omicron變體的影響，基數較小，因此預計第一季將實現強勁成長。

For full year 2022, we're now anticipating G&A expenses of $880 million to $890 million, slightly better than our prior guidance, primarily due to lower bad debt expense. We're also raising our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance and now expect adjusted EBITDA of around $3.79 billion at the midpoint of the range, which is 6% higher than our prior full peak year in 2019. Due to the timing of some capital expenditures for owned, leased hotels and corporate systems as well as key money payments, we now expect full year investment spending of closer to $500 million, assuming the City Express transaction does not close in 2022. Strong spending on our credit cards is expected to result in loyalty being a slight source of cash for the full year before factoring in the reduced payments received from the credit card companies.

2022年全年，我們預期一般及行政費用為8.8億美元至8.9億美元，略好於先前預期，主要原因是壞帳支出減少。同時，我們也上調了全年調整後EBITDA預期，目前預期調整後EBITDA約為37.9億美元（區間中位數），比2019年先前的全年高峰成長6%。由於部分自有及租賃飯店和企業系統資本支出以及關鍵款項的支付時間安排，我們預計全年投資支出將接近5億美元（假設City Express交易在2022年未能完成）。預計信用卡消費強勁，在扣除信用卡公司減少的付款之前，忠誠度計劃將成為全年現金流的一小部分來源。

Year-to-date, our net cash provided by operating activities was $1.9 billion, a significant increase of nearly $1.2 billion compared to the first 3 quarters of last year, a strong reminder of the power of our asset-light business model. At the end of the quarter, our leverage ratio was excellent at the low end of investment grade targets. With our solid financial results and cash flow generations, we have already returned $1.9 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends through October 31, and we now expect to return more than $2.7 billion to shareholders this year.

今年迄今，我們經營活動產生的淨現金流為19億美元，較去年同期成長近12億美元，這有力地證明了我們輕資產商業模式的優勢。截至本季末，我們的槓桿率處於投資等級目標的低端，表現優異。憑藉著穩健的財務表現和現金流，截至10月31日，我們已透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了19億美元，預計今年將向股東返還超過27億美元。

In closing, we're incredibly proud of how well our business is performing and how resilient our business has proven to be. Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

最後，我們為公司目前的出色表現和展現出的強大韌性感到無比自豪。現在，我和托尼很樂意回答大家的問題。接線生？

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利提出的問題。

Tony, probably wanted to start with you, if we could. One thing that's been a bit of a theme, and you hit on it as well through your commentary was just how strong the development environment has held up and I'm wondering if you could unpack that for us a little bit, just given we continue to hear about rising financing costs, a little bit more stress in some of the commercial real estate markets, and that contrasts pretty greatly with what you kind of implied in your comments about just how well your signings are going and your activities going, so can you help us square that up a little bit and just talk about what you're seeing on the ground?

東尼，如果可以的話，我們可能想先問你。你剛才也提到過，開發環境一直非常強勁，這貫穿了我們討論的主題。鑑於我們不斷聽到融資成本上升、一些商業地產市場面臨更大壓力，而你剛才又提到簽約和業務進展順利，這與你之前的說法形成了鮮明對比，我想請你詳細解釋一下。你能幫我們理清一下思路，談談你實際觀察到的情況嗎？

Of course. So on the signing side, we continue to see strong development committee volume. We continue to see strong franchise application volume in most markets around the world. The construction we're seeing in the debt markets for new construction, particularly here in the U.S. is lengthening the cycle even a bit longer in terms of getting shovels in the ground but we're quite encouraged about the consistency we've seen in the volume of under-construction projects in our pipeline. In fact, we were looking at it over the last few days. As you saw in our release, we continue to have a little over 200,000 rooms under construction.

當然。簽約方面，我們持續看到開發委員會數量強勁。在全球大多數市場，特許經營申請數量也持續保持強勁勢頭。債務市場上的新項目，尤其是在美國，建設週期進一步延長，這意味著項目需要更長時間才能動工。但我們對在建項目數量的穩定成長感到非常鼓舞。事實上，過去幾天我們一直在關注這個問題。正如您在我們發布的新聞稿中所看到的，我們目前仍有超過20萬間客房正在建設中。

It's actually the 20th straight quarter where we had more than 200,000 rooms under construction globally. The market in China is most certainly -- where we're seeing the most challenges. The disproportionate share of our projects in the pipeline in China, in fact, about 60% are in the luxury and upper -- upscale tier, principally in primary markets, which are -- well, the combination of those quality tiers in those markets caused those projects to be the most significant fee generators, but they are more complex development projects, and it takes a little longer for them to get open in a market like China. But broadly, we continue to see really powerful interest in our portfolio of brands. And we're maybe most encouraged by the volume both on signings and openings in the conversion tier.

事實上，這已經是我們連續第20個季度在全球擁有超過20萬間在建客房。中國市場無疑是我們面臨的最大挑戰。事實上，我們在中國在建項目中佔比過高，約60%的項目屬於豪華和高端酒店，主要集中在主要市場。這些市場中不同檔次的飯店項目之所以能帶來最豐厚的收入，正是因為它們本身就是最複雜的開發項目，在中國這樣的市場，它們的開發和開幕週期也更長。但整體而言，我們仍然看到市場對我們旗下品牌組合的濃厚興趣。而最令我們感到鼓舞的是，無論是簽約量還是開業量，都體現了我們在高端酒店領域的強勁勢頭。

That's great. And then maybe as my follow-up, Leeny, you mentioned, I believe, as you're looking out to 2023 RevPAR that it could increase nicely and you said each quarter, positive versus this year. Could you just talk a little bit about again very high-level assumptions behind that. I know no one's got a crystal ball here, but just how did you kind of -- how do you consider the macro when you think about that outlook and maybe some of the pluses or minuses that could factor into that?

太好了。 Leeny，我想接著問你一個問題。你之前提到，你展望2023年的RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）時，認為它可能會大幅增長，而且每個季度都會比今年增長。你能否再談談你做出這個預測背後的宏觀假設？我知道沒人能預知未來，但你在展望未來時，是如何考慮宏觀因素的？有哪些利好或不利因素可能會影響到這個預測？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Shaun. As you say, there obviously continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty about the possible recession given the Fed's continued rise in rates and economic headwinds that do continue to grow. But I think we've got some things in our business that really do lead us to confidence about 2023, although we are not predicting per se a recession. We clearly believe there does continue to be pent-up travel demand, particularly in parts of the world where the borders are just opening. We're also seeing just generally a desire for travel and services as compared to goods, which we do see strongly in leisure. Also see, as we think about kind of the overall macro environment that there is pent-up savings for the consumer.

是的，當然。謝謝你，肖恩。正如你所說，鑑於聯準會持續升息以及經濟逆風不斷加劇，經濟衰退的可能性仍然存在相當大的不確定性。但我認為，我們業務中的一些因素確實讓我們對2023年充滿信心，儘管我們並沒有預測會出現衰退。我們堅信，被壓抑的旅行需求仍然存在，尤其是在那些剛開放邊境的地區。我們也看到，與商品相比，人們對旅行和服務的需求總體上有所增長，尤其是在休閒領域。此外，從整體宏觀環境來看，消費者也累積了一定的儲蓄。

So we'll have to see. But again, from where we sit right now and as we look into the booking trends moving into 2023, we continue to see strength across all the business segments, Shaun. And then the last thing I would say is the reality is our booking window is still short. So at roughly 3 weeks for transient bookings, things could change relatively quickly. But for the signs that we see right now, we feel good about 2023. Obviously, Q1 is a particularly hopeful item given we had Omicron in the first quarter of 2022.

所以我們還得拭目以待。但肖恩，就我們目前的情況以及我們對2023年預訂趨勢的分析來看，所有業務板塊都持續保持強勁勢頭。最後我想說的是，我們的預訂窗口期仍然很短。對於短期預訂來說，大約只有三週時間，情況可能會很快改變。但就目前我們看到的跡象而言，我們對2023年充滿信心。顯然，考慮到我們在2022年第一季推出了Omicron，第一季尤其令人期待。

Our next question will come from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

I was hoping you could talk about 2023 group business on the books for next year? And maybe talk about it maybe a little bit differently than maybe how you've talked about it in the past. I was just wondering how much of group for 2023 is on the books for sure as a percentage of what you anticipate the total to be? And then maybe you can just talk about in segments in terms of when that was booked, so to get a sense of pricing, how much of '23 group was booked in '22? How much of it was booked in '21? How much it was booked prior to '21? And obviously, how much would you anticipate in the year, for the year, just given the relative strength of group of late?

我希望您能談談2023年團體業務的預約情況？或許可以換個角度談談，跟以往的討論方式略有不同。我想知道2023年團體業務的預訂量佔您預期總額的百分比是多少？然後，您能否按預訂時間細分一下，例如，為了更好地了解定價情況，2023年的團體業務有多少是在2022年預訂的？有多少是2021年預訂的？又有多少是在2021年之前預訂的？當然，鑑於近期團體業務的強勁勢頭，您預計2023年全年的團體業務量會是多少？

Yes, of course. So let me start macro and then I'll try to get a little more precise in reference to your specific question. 2023 group revenue on the book is currently pacing down about 11% relative to '19, although candidly, you heard Leeny's comments about the short booking window on transient, a similarly short booking window on group. And so I don't know that looking at that down 11% is particularly relevant. Even for Q4 this year, we're up 4%, and we think that will likely improve through the quarter, given the strength of short-term bookings and the trade that many of our customers are making for flexibility and they're willing to pay a higher rate.

當然可以。那麼，我先從宏觀層面說起，然後再針對您的具體問題給予更具體的解答。目前，2023 年的團體預訂收入預計將比 2019 年下降約 11%。不過坦白說，您也聽到了 Leeny 提到的散客預訂窗口期短的問題，團體預訂的窗口期也同樣很短。因此，我認為以 11% 的降幅來衡量意義不大。即使是今年第四季度，我們也成長了 4%，考慮到短期預訂的強勁勢頭，以及許多客戶為了靈活性而願意支付更高的價格，我們認為本季度這一數字可能會繼續增長。

When I look deeper into what's on the books for 2023, room nights are down in the high teens. ADR is actually up close to about 10%. And then I think your second question was really about when that business is being booked? I guess I'll try to give you some 2022 data that is hopefully indicative of the trends we're seeing. About 50% of the group business we've seen year-to-date in 2022 was booked in the year, for the year. That's about double what we saw pre-pandemic, where typically, we'd see about 25% of our total group volume being booked in the year, for the year.

當我深入研究2023年的預訂情況時，發現客房夜數下降了十幾晚。平均房價（ADR）實際上上漲了近10%。我想你的第二個問題其實是關於這些業務的預訂時間吧？我試著提供一些2022年的數據，希望能反映出我們目前看到的趨勢。 2022年至今，我們約有50%的團體業務是在當年預訂的。這大約是疫情前水準的兩倍，疫情前通常只有約25%的團體業務是在當年預訂的。

Great. And then, Leeny, we heard your comments, obviously, about broad expectations for 2023 RevPAR growth. How do you think non-RevPAR-related fees performed relative to that RevPAR growth expectation? Would you expect it to be similar? Would you expect it to be plus or minus? How do you think about that?

好的。 Leeny，我們當然聽到了你關於2023年RevPAR成長的整體預期。你認為非RevPAR相關費用相對於RevPAR成長預期表現如何？你認為兩者會相似嗎？還是會高於或低於預期？你對此有何看法？

So we're in the middle of our budget process, Joe. So we obviously aren't getting to where we're talking about specifics on RevPAR growth of '23 over '22. I think what we've seen this year is credit card fees frankly being up over 20% year-to-date this year. And I think for the full year, obviously, our guidance implies the same. So I think you'll continue to see growth in the cardholders and then growth in spend. But whether it matches exactly RevPAR, we're not in a position to say specifically.

喬，我們目前還在預算編制過程中。所以很顯然，我們現在還無法討論2023年RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）相對於2022年的具體增長情況。我認為，今年迄今為止，信用卡手續費的成長幅度已經超過了20%。而且我認為，就全年而言，我們的預期也顯示情況會類似。因此，我認為持卡人數和消費額都會持續增加。但這些成長是否能與RevPAR完全匹配，我們目前還無法做出具體預測。

Obviously, when you look at compared to '19, those credit card fees have grown meaningfully more than hotel-related fees because of COVID and the steady growth in cardholders and credit card spend each and every year as we've moved through 2019. But I -- again, broadly speaking, we are looking at growth of non-RevPAR fees in 2023, both from credit cardholders as well as spend. But the relative array of growth compared to RevPAR, we will get closer to as we move through the budget process, but we're looking for healthy growth in both.

顯然，與 2019 年相比，由於新冠疫情以及持卡人和信用卡消費額在 2019 年持續增長，信用卡手續費的增長幅度遠超酒店相關費用。但總的來說，我們預計 2023 年非 RevPAR 費用（包括信用卡持卡人和消費額）將持續成長。至於這些費用與 RevPAR 相比的相對成長情況，我們將在預算編制過程中逐步了解，但我們預計兩者都將實現穩健成長。

And our next question will come from Robin Farley with UBS.

接下來，我們將向瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley 提問。

I was curious about the acquisition that you made in October and you talked about expanding in the mid-scale segment in the CALA region with that brand. Do you have thoughts about the mid-scale segment in the U.S., not necessarily with that brand, but in some other brands that maybe we don't know about yet.

我對您十月份的收購很感興趣，您當時提到打算用這個品牌拓展CALA地區的中階市場。您對美國的中階市場有什麼想法嗎？不一定要是這個品牌，也可以是其他一些我們可能還不知道的品牌。

Yes. Of course. So as we mentioned in the release on the acquisition, and I think, I at least touched on this in my prepared remarks, the acquisition initially is focused on the CALA region. We are equally excited about the growth prospects for mid-scale across CALA and what this transaction does for us in terms of further strengthening our footprint across this really important region. As with many acquisitions that we've done over the years, once we close, once we start rolling in CALA, we will, of course, evaluate the applicability of this platform as to whether it makes sense to roll out some or all of the sub-brands under the City Express banner into other markets around the world. But right now, we're focused on getting the transaction closed.

是的，當然。正如我們在收購公告中所提到的，而且我認為我在準備的發言稿中也至少略有提及，此次收購初期將重點放在中美洲及拉丁美洲地區（CALA）。我們對CALA地區中型企業的成長前景以及此交易對我們進一步鞏固在該重要地區的地位所帶來的益處同樣感到興奮。與我們多年來進行的許多收購一樣，一旦交易完成，一旦我們在CALA地區開始運營，我們當然會評估該平台的適用性，以決定是否將City Express旗下的部分或全部子品牌推廣到世界其他市場。但目前，我們的重點是完成交易。

But in general, is the mid-scale segment in the U.S., something whether it's that brand or not, that you kind of have your sight set on?

但總的來說，無論是不是那個品牌，美國的中階市場是否是你們關注的重點？

Well, as you know, we are not in the mid-scale segment in the U.S. Certainly, this acquisition gives us the opportunity to evaluate whether it makes sense to enter mid-scale in any other market inclusive of the U.S.

如您所知，我們目前在美國並不屬於中型市場。當然，此次收購讓我們有機會評估進入包括美國在內的其他市場的中型市場是否有意義。

And then just 1 follow-up on the -- your comments about the pipeline growth in rooms under construction. And you mentioned that it's been a very steady sort of rooms under construction in the last few quarters, you're steadily above that 200,000 unit rate. Is there -- can you give us a little bit of insight into sort of new construction starts in the U.S. only because sort of the broader U.S. market seems to be a slowing number of new construction starts in the hotel space. So just wondering how that -- the sort of incremental hotel starts looks?

然後，我想就您剛才提到的在建客房數量增長問題再問一個後續問題。您提到，過去幾季在建客房數量一直非常穩定，穩定在20萬間以上。能否簡單介紹一下美國的新飯店開工？因為美國整體飯店市場的新飯店開工數量似乎正在放緩。所以，我想了解美國飯店新開工的增量情況。

Of course. So again, outside of Greater China, which is quite a volatile environment, we're pretty encouraged about what we're seeing around the world in terms of new construction starts. We are certainly not back to the peak of 2019, but as I mentioned earlier, new construction starts in the U.S. and Canada reached the highest quarterly level we've seen since the start of the pandemic.

當然。所以，除了大中華區這個波動較大的地區之外，我們對全球新開工的情況感到非常鼓舞。雖然我們還沒有恢復到2019年的峰值，但正如我之前提到的，美國和加拿大的新開工建設量已經達到了疫情爆發以來的最高季度水準。

And our next question will come from Smedes Rose with Citi.

接下來，我們將向花旗銀行的斯梅德斯·羅斯提問。

I wanted to ask a little bit about net unit growth as well going forward, just probably remains difficult for developers to kind of access capital. And I'm just wondering, do you see Marriott providing more of a backstop to developers either through loan guarantees or just direct financing?

我還想問一下關於未來淨單元成長的問題，開發商可能仍然難以獲得資金。我想知道，您認為萬豪酒店集團是否會透過貸款擔保或直接融資等方式為開發商提供更多支援？

Sure, of course. So as both Leeny and I referenced, the availability of debt, particularly for new construction here in our biggest market is a bit challenging. The good news is the pipeline continues to be strong. We continue to see fallout from the pipeline below our historical averages. As has always been the case in constricted debt markets, brand affiliation, track record of the developer, strength of the sponsorship are what -- are the factors that capture the construction debt that is, in fact, available. And so we see signs that the strength of our brands continue to capture a disproportionate share of what's out there.

當然，這毋庸置疑。正如我和Leeny都提到的，在我們最大的市場，尤其是新建項目，獲得債務融資確實面臨一些挑戰。好消息是，在建工程依然強勁。我們看到，在建項目的實際成交量持續低於歷史平均。在債務市場緊縮的情況下，品牌效應、開發商的過往業績以及贊助商的實力，這些因素決定了哪些建築項目能夠獲得可用的債務融資。因此，我們看到，我們品牌的實力繼續佔據著市場上不成比例的份額。

A quarter or so ago, we announced closing on the financing for a $1.2 billion Gaylord Pacific Hotel in Chula Vista, California. This quarter, we announced the closing on financing for a new Ritz-Carlton Reserve in Papagayo, in Costa Rica. So we do feel like we are grabbing meaningful share of the dollars that are out there. And I'm sorry, Smedes, what was the second part of your question? Oh, on key money?

大約一個季度前，我們宣布完成了位於加州丘拉維斯塔的蓋洛德太平洋酒店（Gaylord Pacific Hotel）12億美元的融資。本季度，我們又宣布完成了位於哥斯大黎加帕帕加約的麗思卡爾頓隱世精品度假酒店（Ritz-Carlton Reserve）的融資。所以我們確實感覺自己正在抓住市場上相當可觀的資金份額。抱歉，斯梅德斯，你問題的第二部分是什麼？哦，關於關鍵資金？

Well, yes.

是的。

Yes. Maybe I'll take a high-level shot at this, and Leeny can jump in with some more color. I don't see our tried-and-true philosophical approach to investment in projects changing even in this environment. Certainly, the competitive environment gets more competitive by the day, but we will use the say -- or apply the same disciplined lens that we've applied in the past. And among the long list of reasons, we'll continue to take that approach over the years when you look at the projects where we've leveraged the company's balance sheet to get to accelerate growth, those are projects that tend to generate outsized fee volumes.

是的。或許我可以先從宏觀層面談談我的看法，Leeny 可以補充一些細節。我認為即使在當前的環境下，我們行之有效的專案投資理念也不會改變。當然，競爭環境日益激烈，但我們會繼續沿用以往嚴謹的評估方法。原因有很多，其中之一是，我們之所以會繼續堅持這種方法，是因為我們利用公司資產負債表加速了那些專案的成長，而這些專案往往能帶來超額收益。

The only thing I'd add is that we are not seeing that we are increasing our financing support or investment support in a meaningful way for deals. I think at the end of the day, the first mortgage loans that projects are looking for do not typically come from Marriott and that has not changed. In terms of debt service guarantees, operating profit guarantees and key money, I would say we continue to see them in the same kind of frequency and proportion as we've seen in the past.

我唯一要補充的是，我們並沒有看到我們在交易融資或投資支持方面做出實質的增加。我認為歸根結底，專案尋求的首筆抵押貸款通常並非來自萬豪酒店集團，這一點至今仍未改變。至於償債擔保、營業利潤擔保和關鍵資金，我認為我們看到它們出現的頻率和比例基本上與過去相同。

And our next question comes from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

I know you sort of touched on this and made some implications for next year. When we think about the right net unit growth to model for next year, a number of considerations. Number one, you did see your pipeline tick up a bit from 2Q, but then again, the trajectory of year-over-year quarterly growth has been going down. Is it a fair assumption when we think about the organic number to use that similar to this year's 3% for next year at this point?

我知道您之前已經略微提及過這個問題，並對明年做出了一些預測。當我們考慮明年合適的淨單位成長率模型時，需要考慮許多因素。首先，您確實看到您的銷售管道比第二季度略有增長，但另一方面，同比季度增長率一直在下降。鑑於目前的情況，我們是否可以合理地假設明年的有機成長率與今年的3%相似？

Thank you, Patrick. Again, the -- some of the murkiness that's out there causes us to be reluctant to give you a hard number. What I will tell you is we are encouraged by deal volume. We are encouraged by the volume of under-construction projects. And maybe most notably in a debt constricted environment, we are particularly enthusiastic about the volume of conversion deals we're approving and signing, the volume of conversion deals that we're opening, and the volume of conversion discussions we're having, both on individual projects and multiunit opportunities.

謝謝帕特里克。再次強調，由於目前情況不明朗，我們暫時無法給出確切的數字。但我可以肯定的是，我們對交易量感到鼓舞，對在建項目數量也感到鼓舞。尤其值得一提的是，在債務緊縮的環境下，我們對已批准和已簽署的改建交易數量、已啟動的改建項目數量以及正在進行的改建洽談數量（包括單一項目和多單元項目）都感到非常滿意。

And our next question will come from David Katz with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將向傑富瑞集團的戴維‧卡茨提問。

I wanted to ask about IMFs, the release says 2/3 of them were international. Can you just add a little color on what percentage of North American hotels are earning them today? And any qualitative commentary about how that curve might roll out into the future would be helpful.

我想問一下關於國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的問題，新聞稿中提到三分之二的IMF是國際性的。您能否簡要說明一下目前北美酒店中有多少比例獲得了IMF？另外，如果能對未來這趨勢的發展趨勢做一些定性分析，那就更好了。

Yes, sure. So let's talk about a couple of things. First of all, just from the dollar size, David, we were at $35 million of IMFs or about 1/3 from the U.S. and Canada, and that is pretty similar to what it was in Q3 '19. It was 39%. Now it was 26% of overall hotels in the U.S. and Canada earning incentive fees in Q3 and 56% in '19. But it's important to break out full service from limited service because the reality is that we had a large portfolio back in '19 of managed limited service hotels, which, as you know, left our system over a year ago.

當然可以。那我們來談談幾個面向。首先，就金額而言，David，我們獲得了3,500萬美元的國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）獎勵，其中約三分之一來自美國和加拿大，這與2019年第三季的情況非常接近，當時佔比為39%。而2019年第三季度，美國和加拿大所有飯店中，有26%獲得了獎勵費用，2019年則為56%。但區分全服務酒店和有限服務酒店非常重要，因為事實上，我們在2019年管理大量有限服務酒店，而正如您所知，這些酒店在一年多前已經退出了我們的系統。

So if you actually look at full service, we're actually at a slightly higher percentage of hotels earning IMFs in full service than we were in '19. And again, as we talked about before, in my comments that you saw house profit margins at our full-service hotels, up 200 basis points compared to '19 with our strong RevPAR performance and really strong efforts on the cost containment side. So I -- we feel good about what's going on. We've talked about -- hoped for expected growth in RevPAR in 2023, both U.S. and internationally, which should bode well for continued progress on incentive fees.

所以，如果我們仔細觀察全服務酒店，就會發現，目前獲得國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）獎勵的酒店比例略高於2019年。正如我之前提到的，由於強勁的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）表現以及在成本控制方面取得的顯著成效，我們全服務酒店的利潤率較2019年增長了200個基點。因此，我們對目前的情況感到樂觀。我們曾預測，2023年美國和國際市場的RevPAR都將實現成長，這將有利於我們在獎勵費用方面繼續取得進展。

Obviously, wage and benefit growth is something we're keeping an eye on, which has moderated a bit, although it still reflects the fact that we're in an inflationary environment. And then the last thing I'll say is we've continued to see improvement in the large urban markets where we've got a number of managed Full-Service hotels in the U.S. And we've seen nice progress as we moved into Q3 in some of those urban markets, and we expect them to continue on as we move into 2023 with that recovery.

顯然，我們一直在關注薪資和福利成長，雖然成長放緩，但仍反映出我們身處通膨環境。最後我想說的是，我們在美國擁有多家全服務飯店的大型城市市場持續改善。進入第三季度，我們在部分城市市場取得了顯著進展，預計隨著復甦進入2023年，這種勢頭將持續下去。

Understood. And as my follow-up, the discussions happened during COVID, early on about the fee structures and the interactions between owners and yourselves, around contracts and service delivery, et cetera. And interestingly, it came up with -- in a couple of places from investors recently about what's changed. Now that at least for most of us, COVID is kind of in the rearview mirror. Can you just talk about how that's different and how that's manifesting itself in the numbers?

明白了。我的後續問題是，這些討論是在新冠疫情初期進行的，主要圍繞著收費結構、業主與貴公司之間的互動、合約以及服務交付等方面。有趣的是，最近有幾位投資人提到，疫情期間發生了哪些變化。現在，至少對我們大多數人來說，新冠疫情已經過去。您能否談談這些變化具體體現在哪些方面，以及這些變化是如何體現在數據上的？

So fundamentally, the fee structures have not changed. So I would say, while we did things that on a temporary basis like helped on the reducing reimbursable costs and helping with extensions on accounts receivable, they were all really overwhelmingly temporary things. And then also, if you remember, 85% of the things that we charge are based on top line revenues of the hotel. So they flex as the revenues go up and down, which is helpful to the hotel owners.

所以從根本上講，收費結構並沒有改變。因此，雖然我們採取了一些臨時措施，例如降低可報銷成本和延長應收帳款期限，但這些措施都只是暫時的。而且，如果您還記得的話，我們收費的85%都是基於飯店的營業收入。因此，這些費用會隨著飯店收入的波動而調整，這對飯店業主來說是有利的。

I think you see things like what we've talked about on our direct digital bookings, things like that, which do help the hotel margins by coming through that channel rather than coming through the OTAs as an example, all the productivity efforts that we've done to help improve our productivity per room. We've obviously worked very hard to make sure that we can make the most out of every revenue dollar that comes through the hotels. But as far as structural changes in the contracts, there's nothing really to look for there.

我認為，正如我們之前討論過的，直接線上預訂等舉措確實有助於提高酒店利潤率，因為相比透過線上旅行社（OTA）等管道，透過該管道預訂的客人數量較少。此外，我們還採取了各種措施來提高每間客房的獲利能力。顯然，我們一直在努力確保酒店的每一分收入都能得到最大的利用。但就合約結構而言，目前沒有什麼值得關注的變化。

And maybe the only thing I would add, we obviously have brought back all of our quality metrics, so our QA audits, our RAN standards, you might think that the owners would baulk at that, I think, quite the contrary. They care deeply about their neighbors within the portfolio and continue to encourage us to bring back and enforce those standards. And then similarly, we obviously gave our owners and franchisees a measure of relief on renovation cycle at the very bottom of the trough of the pandemic.

我可能唯一要補充的是，我們已經恢復了所有品質指標，包括品質保證審核和RAN標準。你可能會認為業主們會對此有所抵觸，但我認為恰恰相反。他們非常關心旗下其他物業的營運狀況，並持續鼓勵我們恢復並執行這些標準。同樣地，在疫情最嚴重的時候，我們也為業主和加盟商提供了一定的翻新週期方面的優惠政策。

We're bringing those requirements back but with some pragmatic perspective on hotels that are doing a terrific job on service as evidenced by those quality metrics and giving them the ability to selectively extend some of those renovation cycles.

我們正在恢復這些要求，但同時也會以務實的態度看待那些服務做得非常出色的酒店（從這些品質指標可以看出），並允許它們有選擇地延長一些翻新週期。

Our next question will come from Bill Crow with Raymond James.

下一個問題將來自 Raymond James 公司的 Bill Crow。

Tony, we view hotel demand as kind of a lagging economic indicator, maybe 3 or 6 months. I'm curious whether you agree with that? And if so, what is the best, whether it's a consumer view or other economic data points to try and judge the macro change that, that may be a [thought]?

東尼，我們認為飯店需求是一種落後的經濟指標，可能落後3到6個月。我想知道你是否同意這種觀點？如果同意，那麼，無論是消費者觀點還是其他經濟數據，什麼才是判斷宏觀經濟變化的最佳指標？

Yes, it's a good question. I would revert -- maybe refer back to some comments that both Leeny and I have made this morning about this extraordinarily short booking window, so probably not as much of a lagging indicator as we might have experienced pre-pandemic. While we are encouraged and optimistic by the forward booking data we see, I think Leeny said it best. We also recognize that we work in an industry that is cyclical and subject to economic cycles.

是的，這是個好問題。我想重申一下——或許可以參考我和Leeny今天早上就預訂窗口期異常短發表的一些看法，所以這可能不像疫情前那樣具有明顯的滯後性。雖然我們對目前的預訂數據感到鼓舞和樂觀，但我認為Leeny的說法最為精闢。我們也意識到，我們所處的產業具有週期性，會受到經濟週期的影響。

And because of that short booking window, trends can change quickly. However, even if, in fact, we are in a recession or we fall into a recession, I think the company and travel more broadly are positioned a bit differently. Leeny, maybe you want to talk about that?

正因為預訂窗口期短，趨勢變化很快。不過，即便我們真的身處經濟衰退期，或是即將陷入經濟衰退，我認為公司以及整個旅遊業的處境也會有所不同。莉妮，你或許想談談這個？

Yes. I think we definitely see that we could perform relatively better than we had in prior recessions. You've definitely got unemployment rates right now that are truly at historic lows. And while certainly what is happening with interest rates would be expected over time to influence that. We are a far cry from the 9.5% that we were in the great recession.

是的。我認為我們確實可以看到，我們目前的表現比以往經濟衰退時期要好得多。目前的失業率確實處於歷史低點。當然，利率的走勢最終肯定會對失業率產生影響。但我們目前的失業率與上次經濟大衰退時期的9.5%相比，已經相去甚遠。

And similarly, when you think about pent-up savings and the desire for people to take and do travel to not assume that they can put it off that they really don't want to postpone it and that there is still both business and leisure trips that families and consumers want to make. And while consumer health is something that we will be watching extremely closely, for the moment, there does look to be some extra room there that could help as we go into a potential recession.

同樣，考慮到人們積攢的儲蓄以及他們渴望旅行的願望，不要以為可以推遲旅行，他們其實並不想真的推遲，而且無論是商務旅行還是休閒旅行，家庭和消費者仍然有出行的需求。雖然我們會密切注意消費者健康狀況，但就目前而言，這方面似乎還有一些額外的空間，這或許能幫助我們應對潛在的經濟衰退。

That's helpful. If I could just ask my follow-up question. We understand that owners' meetings recently, the topic of consistency of brand has kind of come up. Is there some complaints about not removing enough rooms from the system, you talked about net unit growth, a low number of removals. Should we expect that to go up over the next couple of years as you get back to kind of enforcing capital spending?

這很有幫助。請容許我再問一個後續問題。我們了解到，在最近的業主會議上，品牌一致性的話題被提及。是否有人抱怨系統內客房移除數量不夠？您提到淨增長的單位數量較少，移除數量也較低。隨著您重新加大資本支出力度，我們是否可以預期未來幾年移除數量會增加？

So maybe I'll take the first part, and Leeny can take the second. As I mentioned earlier, the vast majority of our owners are quite pleased that we've brought back our quality metrics and quality requirements they care, as you point out, meaningfully about the quality of the overall portfolio.

所以也許我會負責第一部分，Leeny 負責第二部分。正如我之前提到的，我們絕大多數的業主都非常高興我們恢復了品質指標和品質要求，正如您所指出的，他們非常關心整個投資組合的品質。

While there may be some pockets of frustration, I think there's also a broad understanding that it was appropriate to suspend those processes during the depths of the pandemic and that it will take us a bit now that they are reinstated to get back to having enough empirical data to be a little firmer on enforcement.

雖然可能存在一些不滿情緒，但我認為人們普遍理解，在疫情最嚴重的時候暫停這些程序是合適的，而且現在這些程序已經恢復，我們需要一段時間才能獲得足夠的經驗數據，以便在執法方面更加堅定一些。

The only part that I would add is that for the owners who did do some renovations during COVID, I think the results that they're seeing are powerful. And I think our good incentive for other owners to do the same. We did -- as Tony mentioned, we did give owners a bit of a pass in the heart of COVID to help everybody manage through the pandemic. But I think as we are coming out of it, I think the entire industry recognizes the importance of having both product and service up to where our consumers, our guests expect them to be given the prices that people are paying.

我唯一想補充的是，對於那些在疫情期間進行了一些翻新的業主來說，我認為他們看到的成果非常顯著。我認為這也能很好地激勵其他業主跟進。正如東尼所提到的，在疫情最嚴重的時候，我們確實給了業主一定的寬限，以幫助大家渡過難關。但隨著疫情逐漸消退，我認為整個產業都意識到，產品和服務必須達到消費者和客人期望的水平，才能與人們支付的價格相符。

So we do expect there to be additional renovations and frankly, probably a pickup in renovations now that we're largely through that impact and believe that the returns on those renovations will be strong. For the time being, we certainly continue to see that our -- we expect our deletion rate to stay in this 1% to 1.5% rate that we've talked about for several years. We will, as we get into the new year, refine that a bit as we go through the entire budget process. But I think that sort of range should be your expectation.

因此，我們預計會有更多翻新工程，坦白說，鑑於疫情的影響已基本消退，翻新工程可能會增加，我們相信這些翻新工程的回報將十分可觀。目前，我們預計專案淘汰率將繼續保持在過去幾年一直討論的1%到1.5%的水平。進入新的一年後，我們會在整個預算編制過程中對此比例進行一些調整。但我認為，大家應該對這個範圍有所預期。

And our next question will come from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

接下來，我們將向巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾提問。

So maybe -- so when you think about corporate transient recovery and specifically focusing on your largest accounts, the larger corporates in the U.S., what is the tone that you kind of get back from them when you talk to them about how they're planning for the future. Obviously, we know that near term, you're seeing good trends, but we hear and see headlines regarding -- especially in tech some larger companies pulling back on expenses and things like that. I'm just curious how you feel about some of those things?

所以，當您思考企業短期復甦，特別是專注於您最大的客戶——美國的大型企業時，當您與他們談論未來的規劃時，他們給出的回饋是什麼？顯然，我們知道短期內呈現出良好的趨勢，但我們也聽到和看到一些新聞報道，尤其是在科技領域，一些大型公司正在削減開支等等。我很好奇您對此有何看法？

Sure. So at a macro level, we are, again, encouraged by the sequential quarter-over-quarter improvement in business transient. You'll recall that in the U.S. and Canada, BT was down almost 25% in the first quarter. That dropped to 13% in Q2 and just down 11% in Q3. As we've discussed in the past, small- and medium-sized companies, which are about 60% of those BT room nights are fully recovered. And in fact, in Q3, their room nights were up about 10%.

當然。從宏觀層面來看，商務散客的環比改善再次令我們感到鼓舞。您可能還記得，在美國和加拿大，商務散客在第一季下降了近25%。第二季降幅收窄至13%，第三季僅下降了11%。正如我們之前討論過的，中小企業（約佔商務散客客房夜數的60%）已經完全恢復。事實上，第三季他們的客房夜數增加了約10%。

When you pivot to the larger companies, your comments are right. Special corporate, which tends to be a lot of those big companies, their room nights were down about 17% in the quarter. And when you start to look at the specific tiers within special corporate, you brought up tech as an example. They were down about 23% in the quarter. Trying to respond more qualitatively in terms of what we're hearing from them. I think it's really embedded in the short booking window. They absolutely talk about the value of face-to-face interaction with each other, with their customers, with their clients.

當你把目光轉向規模更大的公司時，你的評論是正確的。特殊企業客戶（通常指許多大型公司）的入住率在本季下降了約17%。當你開始分析特殊企業客戶內部的具體層級時，例如你提到的科技公司，他們的入住率在本季下降了約23%。我們試著從定性的角度來回應他們提出的問題。我認為這確實與預訂窗口期短有關。他們非常重視與彼此、與客戶、與顧客面對面交流的價值。

But they are also, again, much like our group customers willing to trade a bit of pricing for flexibility. And then the last thing I would say to try to address your question, we are relatively early in the special corporate rate negotiations. But what we're seeing in terms of the pricing and our growing confidence that we're going to end up at least with high single-digit year-over-year rates is pretty encouraging as well.

但他們也和我們的團體客戶一樣，願意在價格上做出一些讓步以換取彈性。最後，為了回答您的問題，我想說的是，我們目前還處於企業特惠價格談判的早期階段。但就價格而言，我們目前看到的情況以及我們越來越有信心最終至少能實現個位數高點同比價格變動的前景，都相當令人鼓舞。

Great. I appreciate it. And then on conversion activity, which you guys did talk about and hoping to ask it in a slightly different way. But just given the sort of counter cyclicality of that activity in past cycles, and sort of one would think maybe that we're sort of at the tail end of conversion activity that was elevated because of COVID, but maybe that there's some -- a pickup -- there could be a pickup of conversion activity if we went into another -- if we went into a recession. Is that how you think about it at this point?

好的，謝謝。關於轉換率，你們之前也討論過，我想換個角度再問。考慮到轉換率在過去週期中呈現出的反週期性，人們可能會認為我們現在正處於因新冠疫情而高漲的轉換率時期的尾聲，但如果再次陷入衰退，轉換率或許會有所回升。您目前也是這麼認為的嗎？

It's not. It's not. I think the reality is a couple of factors are in play here that give us even more confidence about the runway we have for conversions. I think number 1 for Marriott, we've never had a better stack of conversion-friendly brands and across multiple quality tiers, which is really encouraging for us. Number two, we talked a bit about the constriction in the debt markets. There is meaningfully, not meaningfully -- relatively more debt available for existing assets than there is new construction but the same lenses from the lender's perspective apply, brand affiliation, track record.

並非如此。並非如此。我認為現實情況是，有幾個因素在起作用，讓我們對未來的改造計畫更有信心。首先，對於萬豪酒店集團而言，我們從未擁有過如此強大的、適合改造的品牌組合，而且涵蓋多個品質層級，這確實令人鼓舞。其次，我們之前也談到了債務市場的緊縮。現有資產的可用債務相對而言比新建項目要多，但從貸款方的角度來看，品牌歸屬和過往業績等因素仍然適用。

And so in order to source the debt that is available for existing assets, I think you see existing owners and buyers of assets thinking longer and harder about brand affiliation. And then I think third, I mentioned this in response to 1 of the earlier questions, the uptick we've seen in multiunit conversion discussions is a little different than what we've seen at the tail end of other cycles.

因此，為了籌集現有資產可用的債務，我認為現有資產的所有者和買家會更認真地考慮品牌聯姻。第三點，我在回答之前的一個問題時也提到過，我們看到的多單元轉換討論增多，這與我們在其他週期末期看到的情況略有不同。

And our final question will come from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Nice to speak with you. On the business transient commentary, which I think you said down 11%, I wondered if you could provide some regional color. Where would you mark that recovery across the geographies that you touch? And then just as we think about the shape of that recovery curve, we've seen some nice sequential improvement here, but should we be thinking about a plateau through early next year when we have new sort of budget cycles? Or are there regions where you still think sort of sequential improvement into 4Q on BT is on the table?

很高興和您交流。關於您提到的業務波動情況，您之前提到下降了11%，我想請您提供一些區域性的具體數據。在您關注的地區，您認為復甦的程度如何？正如我們分析復甦曲線的形態時，雖然我們看到了一些不錯的環比改善，但我們是否應該預期在明年年初新的預算週期到來之前，經濟將趨於平穩？或者您認為某些地區在第四季仍有可能出現季比改善？

Sure. So let's talk -- I'm going to reference back to Tony's comments about where roughly 60% of our BT in Q3 was from small- and medium-sized companies. And that, frankly, is sprinkled all over the country. So that's going to be everywhere from New York to Tulsa to smaller markets that are -- at limited-service hotels rather than -- the larger special corporate accounts obviously are more headquartered in the urban large cities.

當然。那我們來聊聊——我先回顧一下托尼剛才提到的，我們第三季大約60%的業務往來都來自中小企業。坦白說，這些客戶遍布全國。從紐約到塔爾薩，再到一些規模較小的市場，例如服務有限的飯店，都有他們的身影。當然，大型企業客戶通常總部設在大城市。

The thing I will say is we've continued to see progress as we move too along. When you think of, for example, you think of New York City, which has moved quite nicely during the year, with the improvement in BT, where they were down 29% in Q1. Today New York City was actually 3% higher in Q3 than 2019. So I think you will continue to see the progress, the trends in BT are similar, both internationally as well as in the U.S. I do think as we move into 2023, a lot of this world depend on the state of the economy. So kind of having a prediction about exactly where BT will go, it is tough to pinpoint.

我想說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們一直在看到進步。例如，紐約市今年的發展勢頭良好，BT（英國電信）業務也得到了改善。第一季度，紐約市的BT業務下降了29%，而如今第三季比2019年同期成長了3%。因此，我認為這種進步動能將會持續下去，BT業務的發展趨勢也與此類似，無論是在國際上還是在美國。我認為，進入2023年，世界經濟情勢很大程度上取決於經濟狀況。因此，要準確預測BT業務的未來走向，很難做到精準掌握。

We do look for continued improvement and think it will ultimately get back to where it was, but the exact timing of that hard to say. And then the last thing I'll point out is just the reality that we have seen it moderate in terms of its rate of improvement as we've moved into Q3, and I would expect to see that moderation continue.

我們期待情況持續改善，並認為最終會恢復到先前的水平，但具體時間很難說。最後一點是，進入第三季後，我們看到改善速度放緩，我預計這種放緩趨勢還會持續下去。

And it appears we have no further questions at this time. I'll turn the program back to Tony Capuano for any closing remarks.

目前看來我們沒有其他問題了。接下來我將把節目交還給東尼卡普阿諾，請他作總結發言。

Great. Well, thank you all again for joining us this morning. Thanks for your continued interest in Marriott. Get back on the road, we look forward to seeing you in our hotels in the coming weeks and months. Have a great day.

太好了。再次感謝各位今天上午的參與。感謝您一直以來對萬豪酒店的關注。祝您旅途愉快，我們期待在接下來的幾週和幾個月裡在我們的酒店見到您。祝您今天過得愉快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與，您可以隨時斷開連線。