萬豪國際 (MAR) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Marriott International Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jackie Burka. Please go ahead.

請注意，此通話可能會被錄音。現在我很高興將今天的節目交給 Jackie Burka。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Business Operations; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝你。大家早上好，歡迎參加萬豪 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的首席執行官 Tony Capuano； Leeny Oberg，我們的首席財務官兼業務運營執行副總裁；以及我們的投資者關係副總裁 Betsy Dahm。

I will remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

我要提醒大家，我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實，根據聯邦證券法被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致未來的結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的評論和新聞稿中的聲明僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際事件的發展而更新。

Please also note that, unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy and ADR comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and include hotels temporarily closed due to COVID-19. RevPAR occupancy and ADR comparisons between 2022 and 2019 reflects properties that are defined as comparable as of June 30, 2022, and even if they were not open and operating for the full year 2019 or they did not meet all the other criteria for comparable in 2019.

另請注意，除非另有說明，否則我們的 RevPAR 入住率和 ADR 評論反映了可比酒店的全系統不變貨幣結果，包括因 COVID-19 暫時關閉的酒店。 2022 年和 2019 年之間的 RevPAR 入住率和 ADR 比較反映了截至 2022 年 6 月 30 日被定義為可比的房產，即使它們在 2019 年全年沒有開放和運營，或者它們不符合 2019 年的所有其他可比標準.

Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons to pre pandemic, or 2019, are comparing the same time period in each year. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website. And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

此外，除非另有說明，否則與大流行前或 2019 年的所有比較都是在每年的同一時間段進行比較。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們今天的評論中提到的所有非公認會計原則財務指標的收益發布和對賬。現在我將把電話轉給托尼。

Thank you, Jackie, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We are very pleased with our second quarter results, which were driven by robust demand for our brands around the world. By the last month of the quarter, RevPAR in all regions outside of Asia Pacific had more than fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, leading to June global RevPAR 1% above 2019. Worldwide occupancy for the month rose to 71%, just 5 percentage points below prepandemic levels with global ADR an impressive 8% over the same month in 2019.

謝謝你，傑基，謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們對第二季度的業績感到非常滿意，這得益於全球對我們品牌的強勁需求。到本季度的最後一個月，亞太地區以外所有地區的 RevPAR 已完全恢復到大流行前的水平，導致 6 月全球 RevPAR 比 2019 年高出 1%。當月全球入住率上升至 71%，僅為 5%低於大流行前水平，2019 年同月全球 ADR 令人印象深刻的 8%。

Demand across all customer segments improved during the quarter. Record leisure demand strengthened further with second quarter global leisure transient room nights 14% above the 2019 second quarter.

本季度所有客戶群的需求均有所改善。創紀錄的休閒需求進一步增強，第二季度全球休閒瞬態間夜數比 2019 年第二季度增加 14%。

Group demand experienced the greatest acceleration. In the U.S. and Canada, Group RevPAR had nearly fully recovered in June down just 1% to 2019 compared to down 17% in March. Group revenue pace for the back half of the year has also continued to improve. June in the year, for the year, new bookings were up 50% compared to those bookings in June of 2019. At the end of the second quarter, group RevPAR for the remainder of 2022 was pacing just a few percentage points down to 2019. We expect additional short-term bookings will further bolster group revenues, which could lead to second half group RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada being even to even up slightly compared to 2019.

集團需求增長最快。在美國和加拿大，集團 RevPAR 在 6 月份幾乎完全恢復，到 2019 年僅下降 1%，而 3 月份下降了 17%。集團下半年的營收步伐亦持續改善。今年 6 月，與 2019 年 6 月的預訂量相比，今年 6 月的新預訂量增長了 50%。在第二季度末，2022 年剩餘時間的集團 RevPAR 僅比 2019 年下降了幾個百分點。我們預計額外的短期預訂將進一步提振集團收入，這可能導緻美國和加拿大下半年集團 RevPAR 與 2019 年相比甚至略有上升。

Our sales team remains focused on driving group average rate, which has been steadily rising for new bookings. At our hotels in the U.S. and Canada, ADR for in the year, for the year group bookings made in January was just above 2019 levels. But by June, the rate had risen to up 16%. Business transient demand also strengthened, albeit at a more moderate pace as workers return to the office in greater numbers. In the U.S. June business transient room nights were 9% below the same month in 2019 versus down about 20% in the first quarter.

我們的銷售團隊仍然專注於推動團體平均房價，新預訂一直在穩步上升。在我們在美國和加拿大的酒店，當年 1 月份的團體預訂的 ADR 僅略高於 2019 年的水平。但到了 6 月，這一比率已升至 16%。商業短暫需求也有所增強，儘管隨著越來越多的員工返回辦公室，需求的增長速度較為溫和。在美國，2019 年 6 月的商務臨時客房夜數比 2019 年同月減少 9%，而第一季度下降了約 20%。

Day of the week trends in the U.S. and Canada suggest that travelers are continuing to combine leisure and business streams. While occupancy midweek has continued to recover, in June, Monday through Wednesday occupancy was still around 10 percentage points below 2019. Occupancy on Fridays and Saturdays was fully recovered, and occupancy on Thursdays and Sundays, typically known as shoulder nights, was close to 2019 levels.

美國和加拿大的星期趨勢表明，旅行者正在繼續將休閒和商務流結合起來。雖然周中入住率繼續恢復，但在 6 月，週一至週三的入住率仍比 2019 年低 10 個百分點左右。週五和周六的入住率已完全恢復，週四和周日的入住率（通常稱為肩夜）接近 2019 年水平。

With nearly all major countries around the world having opened their borders rising cross-border travel was another key driver of the solid recovery during the quarter. However, cross-border travel is still not fully back to prepandemic levels. So there is still additional upside, especially from Greater China, where stringent travel restrictions remain in place.

隨著世界上幾乎所有主要國家都開放了邊境，跨境旅行的增加是本季度強勁復甦的另一個關鍵驅動因素。但是，跨境旅行仍未完全恢復到大流行前的水平。因此，仍有額外的優勢，尤其是在大中華地區，那裡仍然存在嚴格的旅行限制。

While we are closely monitoring consumer and macroeconomic trends, we have yet to see signs of a slowdown in global lodging demand. On the contrary, the pent-up demand for all types of travel, the shift of spending towards experiences versus goods, sustained high levels of employment and the lifting of travel restrictions and opening borders in most markets around the world are fueling travel. And as Leeny will discuss, we expect to see continued RevPAR recovery through the end of the year.

雖然我們正在密切關註消費者和宏觀經濟趨勢，但我們尚未看到全球住宿需求放緩的跡象。相反，對所有類型的旅行被壓抑的需求、消費轉向體驗而不是商品、持續的高水平就業以及全球大多數市場取消旅行限制和開放邊境正在推動旅行。正如 Leeny 將討論的那樣，我們預計到今年年底 RevPAR 將繼續恢復。

As travelers get back on the road in increasing numbers, our 169 million Bonvoy members are more actively engaging with our powerful loyalty platform. Monthly active users of our app, digital visits and direct digital bookings, which help drive the owner and franchisee profitability, all reached new highs in June. Additionally, more members are earning and using points outside of a hotel stay as a result of our focus on enhancing the platform through numerous collaborations.

隨著越來越多的旅行者重返旅途，我們的 1.69 億 Bonvoy 會員更加積極地使用我們強大的忠誠度平台。我們應用程序的月活躍用戶、數字訪問和直接數字預訂有助於推動業主和加盟商盈利，在 6 月均創下新高。此外，由於我們專注於通過眾多合作來增強平台，更多的會員在酒店住宿之外賺取和使用積分。

The number of Bonvoy co-brand credit card holders is climbing globally with card acquisitions and total card spend both hitting record levels in the second quarter. Remarkably, the number of global card accounts rose 16% from the end of 2019 through the end of the second quarter this year. In July, we introduced a new credit card in China, and the initial response has been tremendous.

Bonvoy 聯名信用卡持有人的數量在全球範圍內不斷攀升，第二季度的信用卡購買量和信用卡總支出均創下歷史新高。值得注意的是，從 2019 年底到今年第二季度末，全球信用卡賬戶數量增長了 16%。 7 月，我們在中國推出了一種新的信用卡，最初的反響非常好。

Turning to the development front. The pace of deal activity continues to pick up. In the second quarter, we signed another 135 deals, a second quarter record following a record first quarter. Additionally, despite supply chain issues, labor shortages, cost inflation and rising interest rates, the number of deals falling out of the pipeline remains below historical levels.

轉向發展前沿。交易活動的步伐繼續加快。在第二季度，我們又簽署了 135 筆交易，這是繼第一季度創紀錄之後的第二季度記錄。此外，儘管存在供應鏈問題、勞動力短缺、成本通脹和利率上升，但未完成的交易數量仍低於歷史水平。

Interest in conversions remains particularly strong, given the breadth of our roster of conversion-friendly brands across chain scales as owners continue to seek out the meaningful top and bottom line benefits associated with being part of the Marriott portfolio. Conversions represented 30% of room signings in the quarter.

考慮到我們在連鎖範圍內的轉換友好品牌名單的廣度，因為業主繼續尋求與成為萬豪投資組合的一部分相關的有意義的頂線和底線利益，對轉換的興趣仍然特別強烈。轉換佔本季度房間簽約的 30%。

One win to highlight is a recent landmark agreement for 8 hotels in Vietnam with Vinpearl, a new owner to our system. The deal includes 6 conversion hotels that are expected to add 1,700 rooms to the system. Conversions also represented 25% of the roughly 17,000 rooms added to our system in the quarter. While construction time lines have lengthened a bit this year in most markets due to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, we still expect the number of room additions to ramp in the second half of the year.

一個值得強調的勝利是最近與我們系統的新所有者 Vinpearl 就越南 8 家酒店達成的具有里程碑意義的協議。該交易包括 6 家改造酒店，預計將在系統中增加 1,700 間客房。在本季度添加到我們系統的大約 17,000 間客房中，轉化率也佔 25%。儘管由於供應鏈中斷和勞動力短缺，今年大多數市場的建設時間線有所延長，但我們仍預計下半年新增客房數量將增加。

For the full year, gross additions are still anticipated to approach 5%.

全年，預計總增加量仍將接近 5%。

Given our announcement several weeks ago that we are suspending all operations in Russia, we now expect a 1.5% to 2% deletion rate for 2022. While our expectation for deletions outside of Russia remains at 1% to 1.5%, the deletion of 6,500 rooms in the country represents almost 0.5 percentage point. Now as a reminder, fees from Russia represented well under 0.5% of global fees in 2019. We have not been recognizing fees from Russia for many months now, and the financial impact of these rooms leaving is de minimis. So our net rooms growth for 2022 could now be 3% to 3.5% or 3.5% to 4% before factoring in the deletions in Russia.

鑑於我們幾週前宣布暫停在俄羅斯的所有運營，我們現在預計 2022 年的刪除率將達到 1.5% 至 2%。雖然我們對俄羅斯以外地區的刪除率仍保持在 1% 至 1.5%，但刪除 6,500 間客房在該國幾乎佔 0.5 個百分點。現在提醒一下，2019 年來自俄羅斯的費用遠低於全球費用的 0.5%。我們已經好幾個月沒有確認來自俄羅斯的費用了，這些房間離開的財務影響微乎其微。因此，在考慮俄羅斯的刪除之前，我們 2022 年的淨客房增長率現在可能為 3% 至 3.5% 或 3.5% 至 4%。

We remain confident that over the next several years, we will return to our prepandemic mid-single-digit net rooms growth rate. The timing will largely depend on when new construction starts, which have trailed well below 2019 levels for the last 2 years really begin to accelerate, particularly here in the U.S. Construction time lines in the U.S. are currently just over 2 years for a limited service hotel and longer for full-service properties.

我們仍然有信心，在未來幾年內，我們將恢復到疫情前的中個位數淨客房增長率。時間在很大程度上取決於新建築何時開始，在過去兩年中，新建築的開工時間遠低於 2019 年的水平，尤其是在美國這裡。目前，有限服務酒店的建設時間線僅超過 2 年對於全方位服務的物業，時間更長。

Looking ahead with the largest footprint in the industry, strong builder affinity for our brands and the improving global travel environment, I am bullish about the company's future growth prospects for development and for the company overall. I want to take a moment and thank all of our associates around the world. Their commitment to taking care of our guests has helped produce our outstanding results, and I'm so very proud of their dedication and resilience. And now I'll turn the call over to Leeny to discuss our financial results in more detail.

展望行業中最大的足跡、對我們品牌的強大的建設者親和力以及不斷改善的全球旅遊環境，我看好公司未來的發展前景和公司整體的增長前景。我想花點時間感謝我們在世界各地的所有同事。他們對照顧客人的承諾幫助我們取得了出色的成績，我為他們的奉獻精神和堅韌不拔感到非常自豪。現在，我將把電話轉給 Leeny，以更詳細地討論我們的財務業績。

Thank you, Tony. Global RevPAR continued to rebound sharply, and Marriott reported outstanding financial results in the second quarter. Record quarterly global fees and adjusted EBITDA were both 7% above the same quarter in 2019. Second quarter global RevPAR was down only 3% compared to prepandemic levels. .

謝謝你，托尼。全球 RevPAR 繼續大幅反彈，萬豪公佈了第二季度出色的財務業績。創紀錄的季度全球費用和調整後的 EBITDA 均比 2019 年同期高出 7%。與疫情前的水平相比，第二季度全球 RevPAR 僅下降了 3%。 .

Looking at the regions. In the U.S. and Canada, RevPAR came in ahead of our expectations largely due to stronger-than-anticipated growth in ADR and group demand. Compared to 2019, RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada was up 1% in the quarter and up 3% in June. ADR has improved each month this year, reaching 9% above prepandemic levels in June.

看地區。在美國和加拿大，RevPAR 超出了我們的預期，這主要是由於 ADR 和團體需求的增長強於預期。與 2019 年相比，美國和加拿大的 RevPAR 在本季度增長了 1%，在 6 月份增長了 3%。今年的 ADR 每個月都有所改善，在 6 月份達到了比大流行前水平高 9% 的水平。

Occupancy further strengthened from the first to the second quarter on both an absolute basis and versus prepandemic levels. June occupancy of 76% was within 4 percentage points of the same month in 2019.

從第一季度到第二季度，入住率在絕對基礎上和與大流行前水平相比進一步加強。 6月入住率為76%，與2019年同月相差4個百分點。

In June, U.S. and Canada RevPAR more than fully recovered across all market types, primary, secondary and tertiary for the first time since the pandemic began. It has been very encouraging to see demand come back so powerfully in major cities like New York, where RevPAR increased 7% versus June 2019. With orders opened in Europe, the room nights from international guests more than doubled in the region from the first quarter to the second. With this strong return of international travel, Europe has experienced the swiftest RevPAR recovery of all of our regions this year. RevPAR in Europe topped 2019 levels in June, a remarkable 57 percentage point increase from January.

6 月，自大流行開始以來，美國和加拿大的 RevPAR 在所有市場類型（一級、二級和三級）中首次完全恢復。看到紐約等主要城市的需求如此強勁地回升令人鼓舞，RevPAR 與 2019 年 6 月相比增長了 7%。隨著歐洲訂單的開放，該地區國際客人的房晚比第一季度增加了一倍以上到第二個。隨著國際旅遊的強勁回歸，今年歐洲經歷了我們所有地區中最快的 RevPAR 恢復。歐洲的 RevPAR 在 6 月份超過了 2019 年的水平，比 1 月份顯著增長了 57 個百分點。

Cross-border travel also helped drive strong second quarter results in the Middle East and Africa and in the Caribbean and Latin America area. Second quarter RevPAR rose 16% in EMEA and 13% in CALA compared to 2019. Asia Pacific, excluding China, saw rapid RevPAR improvement during the second quarter as the region is now mostly open with India and Australia more than fully recovered. Second quarter RevPAR was down 22% compared to 2019 given the lack of travelers from Greater China and the fact that rigorous travel restrictions remain in place in Japan, one of our largest markets in the region.

跨境旅行也幫助推動了中東和非洲以及加勒比和拉丁美洲地區的強勁第二季度業績。與 2019 年相比，歐洲、中東和非洲地區第二季度的 RevPAR 和 CALA 分別增長了 16% 和 13%。除中國外，亞太地區的 RevPAR 在第二季度出現了快速增長，因為該地區現在大部分開放，印度和澳大利亞已完全恢復。由於缺乏來自大中華區的旅客，以及我們在該地區最大的市場之一日本仍然存在嚴格的旅行限制，第二季度 RevPAR 與 2019 年相比下降了 22%。

Greater China continues to lag the recovery of other regions due to its strict zero COVID policy. RevPAR during the quarter declined more than 50% compared to 2019 as a result of the lockdowns in many cities, including Shanghai and Beijing.

由於嚴格的零疫情政策，大中華區繼續落後於其他地區的複蘇。由於上海和北京等許多城市的封鎖，本季度的 RevPAR 與 2019 年相比下降了 50% 以上。

Total company gross fee revenues totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter driven by higher RevPAR, rooms growth and another quarter of significant growth in our non-RevPAR-related franchise fees. Those fees totaled $204 million in the second quarter driven largely by growth in our co-brand credit card fees, which rose a remarkable 38% year-over-year.

本季度公司總費用收入總計 11 億美元，這主要得益於 RevPAR、客房增長以及與非 RevPAR 相關的特許經營費的另一個季度的顯著增長。第二季度，這些費用總計 2.04 億美元，主要是由於我們的聯合品牌信用卡費用的增長，同比增長了 38%。

Incentive management fees, or IMF, increased meaningfully in the quarter, reaching $135 million. Over half of our IMFs came from U.S. and Canada, where we earned more IMFs than we did in the second quarter of 2019. At the hotel level, working closely with our owners and franchisees to contain operating costs while delivering superior customer service remains the key area of focus. Profit margins at our U.S. managed hotels were 3 percentage points higher than 2019 levels in the second quarter despite meaningful wage and benefit inflation. We are keeping an eye on wages and benefits as industry staffing challenges persist in certain markets, yet we remain optimistic that our cost reduction efforts could offset this inflation in future years.

激勵管理費（IMF）在本季度顯著增加，達到 1.35 億美元。我們一半以上的 IMF 來自美國和加拿大，我們在美國和加拿大獲得的 IMF 比 2019 年第二季度更多。在酒店層面，與我們的業主和特許經營商密切合作以控制運營成本，同時提供卓越的客戶服務仍然是關鍵重點領域。儘管工資和福利出現顯著通脹，但我們在美國管理的酒店的利潤率比 2019 年第二季度的水平高 3 個百分點。由於某些市場的行業人員配置挑戰持續存在，我們正在密切關注工資和福利，但我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們降低成本的努力可以在未來幾年抵消這種通脹。

G&A and other expenses totaled $231 million in the second quarter primarily due to higher incentive compensation accruals as well as increased travel expense. With COVID now essentially endemic, global borders overwhelmingly open and business somewhat more predictable, we're providing guidance for the third quarter and the full year. The full details are in our press release. There is still a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty in our outlook, especially as it relates to Greater China, but we are encouraged by the positive momentum in demand across customer segments and robust ADRs in the vast majority of markets around the world.

第二季度的 G&A 和其他費用總計 2.31 億美元，主要是由於更高的激勵薪酬應計費用以及旅行費用的增加。由於 COVID 現在基本上是地方性的，全球邊界絕大多數開放並且業務更加可預測，我們正在為第三季度和全年提供指導。完整的細節在我們的新聞稿中。我們的前景仍然存在高於往常的不確定性，尤其是與大中華區有關的前景，但我們對全球絕大多數市場的客戶細分需求的積極勢頭和強勁的 ADR 感到鼓舞。

We expect the global RevPAR recovery to continue each quarter through the end of the year driven by improving occupancy and ADR compared to 2019 in both the U.S. and Canada and internationally. On a worldwide basis compared to 2019, we could see RevPAR flat to up 3% in the third quarter and down 6% to down 3% through the full year. Compared to 2021, global RevPAR in the third quarter could be up in the mid-30% range, and for the full year, it could be up around 50%.

我們預計，由於與 2019 年相比，美國和加拿大以及國際上的入住率和 ADR 有所改善，全球 RevPAR 的複蘇將持續到年底。在全球範圍內，與 2019 年相比，我們可以看到第三季度 RevPAR 持平至上升 3%，全年下降 6% 至下降 3%。與 2021 年相比，第三季度全球 RevPAR 可能會增長 30% 左右，全年可能會增長 50% 左右。

For the full year, we're now anticipating G&A expenses of $890 million to $900 million due to higher compensation accruals as well as travel expenses but still well below (technical difficulty) G&A. And we expect adjusted EBITDA of $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion, above our prior full year peak in 2019. We now expect full year investment spending of $600 million to $650 million. Our guidance now includes roughly $200 million for maintenance capital in our new headquarters. Loyalty is still expected to be a slight use of cash for the full year before factoring in the reduced payments received from the credit card companies.

由於更高的應計薪酬和差旅費用，我們現在預計全年的 G&A 費用為 8.9 億美元至 9 億美元，但仍遠低於（技術難度）G&A。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 37 億美元至 38 億美元，高於我們之前在 2019 年全年的峰值。我們現在預計全年投資支出為 6 億美元至 6.5 億美元。我們現在的指導包括大約 2 億美元用於我們新總部的維護資金。在考慮從信用卡公司收到的減少付款之前，忠誠度預計仍將是全年的少量現金使用。

At the end of the second quarter, our leverage was in the low end of our targeted range of 3 to 3.5x adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA. We resumed share repurchases during the quarter and have already bought 448 million of stock as of July 29, in addition to paying our dividend in the second quarter at $0.30 per share.

在第二季度末，我們的槓桿率處於我們調整後淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比為 3 至 3.5 倍的目標範圍的低端。我們在本季度恢復了股票回購，截至 7 月 29 日已經購買了 4.48 億股股票，此外還以每股 0.30 美元的價格支付了第二季度的股息。

Our capital allocation strategy remains the same. We will make investments that enhance our growth and increase shareholder value while returning any excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend and share repurchases. We remain committed to our investment-grade rating.

我們的資本配置策略保持不變。我們將進行投資以促進我們的增長並增加股東價值，同時通過適度的現金股息和股票回購將任何多餘的資本返還給股東。我們仍然致力於我們的投資級評級。

Given our outlook for further global recovery and our powerful business model that is generating significant cash beyond our investment needs, we expect to return more than $2.2 billion to shareholders this year. This level of capital returns is included in the guidance we have provided today.

鑑於我們對全球進一步復甦的前景以及我們強大的商業模式產生的大量現金超出了我們的投資需求，我們預計今年將向股東返還超過 22 億美元。這一水平的資本回報包含在我們今天提供的指導中。

Looking ahead, I'm very optimistic about our future. Marriott is incredibly well positioned given the breadth and depth of our unparalleled global portfolio, our powerful Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program and the best team in the business. Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

展望未來，我對我們的未來非常樂觀。鑑於我們無與倫比的全球投資組合的廣度和深度、我們強大的萬豪旅享家忠誠度計劃和業內最優秀的團隊，萬豪處於令人難以置信的有利位置。托尼和我現在很高興回答你的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America .

（操作員說明）我們將向美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley 提出第一個問題。

I wanted to start off pretty much where you left off, Leeny, on the capital return program. I feel like once every 10 years or so, we get this quarter where everything kind of comes together on that. And obviously, it's a major increase from where we found ourselves just a quarter ago. Could you talk about the levers there? And then sort of where does this take you as it would relate to your longer-term goals around your leverage range? Does this keep you solidly in the middle of that? Do you -- or where would it put you relative to that kind of at the end of the year? And maybe give us a little teaser for what this could mean for 2023 as well.

Leeny，我想從你上次停下來的地方開始資本回報計劃。我覺得每 10 年左右一次，我們會在這個季度得到所有的東西。顯然，與我們在四分之一前發現自己的情況相比，這是一個重大的增長。你能談談那裡的槓桿嗎？然後這會帶你去哪裡，因為它與你在槓桿範圍內的長期目標有關？這是否讓你堅定地置身其中？你 - 或者它會讓你在年底相對於那種情況？也許給我們一些預告，這對 2023 年可能意味著什麼。

Shaun, I think you said it best in your question, that it really is back to where we were in terms of the way the model fundamentally works. As I said in my statement, we are at the low end of the 3 to 3.5x adjusted debt to EBITDA at the end of Q2, and we've given you a model that keeps us squarely and comfortably in that range. And we obviously want to keep our flexibility both in terms of investment opportunities as well as taking advantage of excess available cash. So I think you'll continue to see us move forward with the exact same approach that we have taken for some time.

肖恩，我認為你在問題中說得最好，就模型的基本工作方式而言，它確實回到了我們所處的位置。正如我在聲明中所說，在第二季度末，我們處於 EBITDA 調整後債務的 3 到 3.5 倍的低端，我們為您提供了一個模型，可以讓我們在這個範圍內保持平穩和舒適。我們顯然希望在投資機會和利用多餘的可用現金方面保持靈活性。因此，我認為您將繼續看到我們採用與一段時間以來完全相同的方法向前發展。

Great. And maybe just as a very quick follow-up, Tony, you have a lot of great color just kind of walking us through group, leisure and a little bit on the business transient side, particularly the day of the week commentary. Could you just talk specifically around leisure, there's a lot of fear out there around the ability to lap some of the incredible rate gains that have occurred? So just what are you seeing maybe across some of the resort properties or areas where you know that the recovery happened a little faster and consumer demand patterns have changed? Any signs of weakness or softness that would concern you at all at this stage? .

偉大的。也許只是作為一個非常快速的後續行動，托尼，你有很多很棒的色彩，只是帶我們穿過小組，休閒和一點商務短暫的一面，特別是一周中的一天評論。你能具體談談休閒嗎，有很多人擔心能夠獲得已經發生的一些令人難以置信的利率增長？那麼，在您知道復甦發生得更快且消費者需求模式發生變化的一些度假勝地或地區，您看到了什麼？在這個階段你是否有任何軟弱或軟弱的跡象？ .

Thanks, Shuan. The short answer is not really. The already robust leisure demand that we've seen in the last couple of quarters continue to improve. Leisure room nights were up 14% to 2019 in the quarter, and they were only up 11% in the first quarter. So we continue to see acceleration, and we continue to see more and more of this blended trip purpose. In my remarks, I talked a little bit about day-of-the-week patterns. And so I think that's quite encouraging to us as well. And then, finally, we've not talked a lot about international cross-border travel. While we're seeing improvement, we're not back to where we were pre pandemic, and we think that represents some upside on the leisure segment as well. .

謝謝，舒安。簡短的回答不是真的。我們在過去幾個季度看到的本已強勁的休閒需求繼續改善。到 2019 年第一季度，休閑房夜數增長了 14%，而第一季度僅增長了 11%。所以我們繼續看到加速，我們繼續看到越來越多的這種混合旅行的目的。在我的發言中，我談了一點關於星期幾的模式。所以我認為這對我們也很鼓舞。然後，最後，我們還沒有過多地談論國際跨境旅行。雖然我們看到了進步，但我們並沒有回到大流行前的狀態，我們認為這也代表了休閒領域的一些上行空間。 .

And then the last thing I would say is all of those are comments about demand levels. We continue to see really encouraging pricing power on the leisure side as well. It's a little early to talk about the winter holidays. But as we look at Labor Day, for instance, we continue to see double-digit increases in ADR relative to where we were pre pandemic.

然後我要說的最後一件事是所有這些都是關於需求水平的評論。我們繼續看到休閒方面的定價能力確實令人鼓舞。現在談論寒假還為時過早。但是，例如，當我們看到勞動節時，我們繼續看到 ADR 相對於大流行前的情況出現了兩位數的增長。

Our next question comes from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Joe Greff。

Tony, I was hoping maybe you could give us a sense of corporate rate negotiations for 2023 corporate rates. I know the last couple of years, they've been sort of nonevents because corporate demand has been relatively low. How are you thinking of corporate pricing? And maybe how are those negotiations different now versus what they've been in the past?

托尼，我希望你能給我們一個關於 2023 年公司費率的公司費率談判的感覺。我知道過去幾年，由於企業需求相對較低，它們一直是平淡無奇的。您如何看待企業定價？也許這些談判現在與過去有什麼不同？

Of course. So as you know, for business transient, we rolled over special corporate rates since the beginning of the pandemic. We're just now starting the negotiation process for 2023. And so again, it's early, but we can certainly imagine those rates being up high single digits year-over-year in 2023.

當然。如您所知，對於臨時業務，自大流行開始以來，我們將特殊的公司費率展期。我們現在才剛剛開始 2023 年的談判進程。同樣，現在還為時過早，但我們當然可以想像到 2023 年這些利率將同比增長個位數。

Great. And then, Tony, just switching topics, you mentioned about net rooms growth accelerating, and this is before the impact of Russia, which I'm looking at it as sort of a onetime thing. But when you look at 2023, 2024, 2025 net rooms growth and during some periods seeing it accelerate from where you are now, does that require more meaningful financial assistance for Marriott to third-party hotel owners? Or is that just a function of kind of getting through sort of a longer construction time table? .

偉大的。然後，托尼，只是換個話題，你提到淨客房增長加速，這是在俄羅斯的影響之前，我認為這是一次性的事情。但是，當您查看 2023 年、2024 年、2025 年的淨客房增長，並且在某些時期看到它從現在的水平加速增長時，這是否需要萬豪向第三方酒店業主提供更有意義的財務援助？或者這只是一種通過更長的施工時間表的功能？ .

I think, much more the latter. Now I was quite thrilled with our conversion volume both on signings and openings in the second quarter. It is a competitive market for conversions. I'm quite pleased that we had more conversion openings than any of our peers in the quarter, and we'll continue to try to do smart conversions, which means we'll use the same capital discipline you've come to know us for even pre pandemic. I think to really see acceleration, and this is an industry comment as much as a Marriott comment, particularly in the U.S., you have seen a slowing in construction starts. Just over the last quarter, we have seen that start to tick up, although not to levels we saw in 2019. But I think we will do our best to continue to drive conversion volume and do everything we can to get shovels in the ground.

我認為，更多的是後者。現在，我對我們在第二季度的簽約和空缺轉換量感到非常興奮。這是一個競爭激烈的轉換市場。我很高興我們在本季度擁有比任何同行都多的轉換機會，我們將繼續嘗試進行智能轉換，這意味著我們將使用與您了解我們相同的資本紀律甚至在大流行之前。我認為要真正看到加速，這是一個與萬豪評論一樣的行業評論，特別是在美國，你已經看到開工速度放緩。就在上個季度，我們已經看到這種情況開始上升，儘管沒有達到 2019 年的水平。但我認為我們將盡最大努力繼續推動轉化量，並儘我們所能將鏟子放在地上。

You may know that I had the privilege to spend a little time with the administration last week, and one of the things that we spoke to the administration about, was seeking assistance to resolve some of the supply chain issues that continue to slow some of the construction starts.

你可能知道上週我有幸與政府共度了一些時間，我們與政府談過的一件事是尋求幫助來解決一些供應鏈問題，這些問題繼續減緩一些施工開始。

And Joe, just one follow-on. We talked about 2 record quarters of signings so far this year. And to your specific question, they did not involve a greater-than-usual element of capital from Marriott for those signings.

而喬，只是一個後續。今年到目前為止，我們談到了 2 個創紀錄的季度簽約。對於你的具體問題，他們並沒有為這些簽約涉及來自萬豪的超乎尋常的資本元素。

And then maybe just to put a fine point on your question, Joe, our confidence in our ability to get back to that mid-single-digit net unit growth, there's a couple of things in the release. The fact that we had quarter-over-quarter growth in the pipeline, the fact that we continue to have more than 200,000 rooms globally under construction and that we continue to see accelerated volume in both signings and openings on the conversion front combined to strengthen that confidence.

然後也許只是為了說明你的問題，喬，我們對我們有能力恢復到中個位數淨單位增長的信心，發布中有幾件事。事實上，我們在管道中實現了季度環比增長，我們繼續在全球有超過 200,000 間客房在建，並且我們繼續看到在轉換方面的簽約和開業數量都在加速增長，這些都加強了這一點信心。

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

Question for you on the back half guidance or implied back half guidance. Would you say that is higher, same -- higher or the same than your internal assumptions as of last May, last earnings?

關於後半部分指導或隱含後半部分指導的問題。您是否會說這比您截至去年 5 月的內部假設（上次收益）更高、相同 - 更高或相同？

Yes, it is. There's no doubt that the recovery has accelerated faster than we had originally anticipated. And I think it's both in rate and occ in varying parts of the world. I think the cross-border has been obviously incredibly encouraging to see that topped Europe as an example, meaningfully faster than expected. But yes, I think it is stronger than our expectations both a quarter ago. And then frankly, a quarter ago was better than we expected a quarter before that.

是的。毫無疑問，復甦的速度比我們最初預期的要快。我認為它在世界不同地區的速率和 occ 上都有。我認為，以超越歐洲為例，跨境顯然令人難以置信地鼓舞人心，比預期的要快得多。但是，是的，我認為這比我們一個季度前的預期要強。然後坦率地說，一個季度前比我們之前一個季度的預期要好。

Okay. Great. Then a follow-up question. This goes back to the lingering one about what percentage of business travel may be permanently gone. And in my data research, for the higher-end customer, it looks like down 20% to 25%. But my question with that is how much do you think that higher-end customer has shifted to Thursday and Sunday nights. And how much has the smaller and medium-sized businesses offset that perhaps loss from the higher corporate customer?

好的。偉大的。然後是後續問題。這可以追溯到一個揮之不去的關於商務旅行的百分比可能永久消失的問題。在我的數據研究中，對於高端客戶，它看起來下降了 20% 到 25%。但我的問題是，您認為高端客戶已經轉移到週四和周日晚上了多少。中小型企業在多大程度上抵消了較高級企業客戶可能帶來的損失？

Well, there's no question that the rapid improvement in occupancies in the shoulder days has been maybe a bit of a surprising but encouraging development. When we think about business transient demand, the small- and medium-sized businesses, they are back. They are back above 2019 levels of volume. As you point out, the bigger corporate customers, they are not quite back yet. But even there, we continue to see steady improvement, albeit not necessarily as rapid as we might like.

好吧，毫無疑問，肩部入住率的迅速提高可能有點令人驚訝但令人鼓舞。當我們考慮業務的瞬態需求時，中小企業又回來了。它們回到了 2019 年的成交量水平之上。正如您所指出的，較大的企業客戶還沒有完全回來。但即使在那裡，我們仍然看到穩步改善，儘管不一定像我們希望的那樣快。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Robin Farley。

Great. Two questions. One is on group for 2023. Are you starting to see that? I think a quarter ago, it may have been down 10% or 15% below group in 2019 at the time for 2020. Just wondering if you're starting to see the group sort of stepping up a little bit more because it seems intuitive at some point that, that could actually be higher than '19. But wondering how that is shaping up right now.

偉大的。兩個問題。一個是 2023 年的小組。你開始看到了嗎？我認為一個季度前，到 2020 年時，它可能在 2019 年比 2019 年下降了 10% 或 15%。只是想知道你是否開始看到該集團有點提高，因為它看起來很直觀在某些方面，這實際上可能高於 19 年。但想知道現在情況如何。

Sure. So maybe I can give you a couple of statistics, and Leeny may provide some color as well. When we look at bookings for '23 during 2022, we are down about 2% in revenue versus where we would have been for the bookings in 2019. But interestingly, ADR is up 16%. So we continue to see that strong pricing power. And we're even more optimistic, Robin, as you heard in our prepared remarks, because of the shorter booking window in group, even through the back half of this year and most certainly into '23, we expect those numbers to continue to improve as we see more and more short-term bookings.

當然。所以也許我可以給你一些統計數據，Leeny 也可以提供一些顏色。當我們查看 2022 年 23 年的預訂時，與 2019 年的預訂相比，我們的收入下降了約 2%。但有趣的是，ADR 上升了 16%。因此，我們繼續看到強大的定價能力。而且我們更加樂觀，羅賓，正如您在我們準備好的講話中所聽到的那樣，由於團體預訂窗口較短，即使在今年下半年，最肯定是到 23 年，我們預計這些數字將繼續改善我們看到越來越多的短期預訂。

So Robin, I'll add a couple of comments. I think the major theme we've got is in the quarter, for the quarter, in the year, for the year. In June, the benefit of that really got us to where group RevPAR was only down 1% in the month. So when we look at the rest of this year, from what's on the books currently, we are seeing low single digits for the rest of the year in terms of group revenue, while next year, we're still kind of in the 15% down, but I think you need to continue to think about this booking pattern, which is much closer to the actual event that has been filling in really nicely. So it's not that different for '23 versus a quarter ago except from what we're seeing in the quarter for the quarter, and even in the back half of '22, we're seeing some really great fill-in business that has got us pretty close to '19 levels where we could end up actually exceeding '19 levels in the back half of this year.

所以羅賓，我將添加一些評論。我認為我們的主要主題是季度、季度、年度、年度。在 6 月，這確實讓我們達到了當月集團 RevPAR 僅下降 1% 的水平。因此，當我們查看今年剩餘時間時，從目前賬面上的情況來看，我們看到今年剩餘時間的集團收入處於低個位數，而明年，我們仍處於 15% 之內下來，但我認為你需要繼續考慮這種預訂模式，它更接近實際活動，已經很好地填補了。因此，除了我們在本季度看到的情況外，23 年與一個季度前並沒有什麼不同，即使在 22 年的後半段，我們也看到了一些非常棒的填補業務我們非常接近 '19 水平，我們最終可能在今年下半年超過 '19 水平。

And that's exceeding in terms of rate, not necessarily group room nights but just in terms of total group revenues?

而且這超出了房價，不一定是團體間夜，而是團體總收入？

Yes, that's total -- that is definitely total group revenue. Again, it's obviously where we are seeing it fill in. It's not just rate. It's also occ as we fill in the business. But you're right, the rate on group has been performing incredibly well.

是的，這是總收入——這絕對是集團總收入。同樣，這顯然是我們看到它填充的地方。這不僅僅是速率。當我們填寫業務時，這也是 occ。但你是對的，小組賽的表現非常好。

Okay. Great. And then just the other question was in terms of conversions, which seems to be doing really nicely, is this -- I guess, how long do you think will the sort of the tail of conversions that are a result of the pandemic and the downturn? From what you've seen historically, when there are downturns, kind of how much after? In other words, is it sort of a year of higher conversions, a year out or 2 years of higher? I guess, how should we think about what trajectory the conversion demand may follow.

好的。偉大的。然後另一個問題是關於轉換的，這似乎做得很好，是不是——我猜，你認為大流行和經濟低迷導致的那種轉換尾巴會持續多久?從你歷史上看到的情況來看，當經濟低迷時，在多長時間之後？換句話說，是一年更高的轉化率，一年還是兩年？我想，我們應該如何考慮轉換需求可能遵循的軌跡。

I continue to be quite bullish, Robin, on the trajectory of conversions for a few reasons. Number one, unlike some conventional downturns we've experienced in the past, where early in the downturn, you saw a lot of distress, the impact to our business was so severe that you saw the lenders being much more creative than accommodating with owners. So you didn't necessarily see a flood of distressed assets changing hands in the market. As demand and performance have recovered, there is the potential that there may be more assets in play, number one.

羅賓，出於幾個原因，我仍然非常看好轉換的軌跡。第一，與我們過去經歷的一些傳統衰退不同，在衰退初期，你看到了很多痛苦，對我們業務的影響是如此嚴重，以至於你看到貸方比與業主適應更有創意。因此，您不一定會在市場上看到大量不良資產易手。隨著需求和業績的恢復，可能會有更多的資產在發揮作用，這是第一。

Number two, the portfolio of conversion-friendly brands we have, particularly our soft brands, Tribute, Autograph and Luxury Collection is more robust than we've ever armed our transactors in any other recessionary environment. And I combine those 2 factors, and it drives my bullishness about that trajectory.

第二，我們擁有的易於轉換的品牌組合，尤其是我們的軟品牌 Tribute、Autograph 和 Luxury Collection，比我們在任何其他經濟衰退環境中為我們的交易商提供的武器更加強大。我將這兩個因素結合起來，它推動了我對該軌蹟的看漲。

Our next question comes from Smedes Rose from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Smedes Rose。

I just wanted to ask you sort of conceptually, as the recovery kind of continues, which so far has been driven by such strong rate, which we've seen have great kind of flow-through to owners with lower occupancies, but as the world sort of continues to normalize, hopefully, next year, would you expect to see occupancies get back to prepandemic levels and potentially maybe a significant slowdown in rate in order to get there? Or do you think it's just sort of a structural change where owners are like we're going to charge higher rate, even if it means sacrificing occupancy to kind of simplify it?

我只是想從概念上問你，隨著復甦的繼續，到目前為止，這種複蘇是由如此強勁的利率推動的，我們已經看到這種情況對入住率較低的業主有很好的流動性，但隨著世界希望在明年繼續正常化，您是否希望看到入住率恢復到大流行前的水平，並且可能會顯著放緩以達到那裡？還是您認為這只是一種結構性變化，業主就像我們要收取更高的費率一樣，即使這意味著犧牲入住率來簡化它？

Well, as Leeny mentioned in response to an earlier question, we do believe the recovery will continue to be driven by both occupancy and rate. You also heard her refer a bit to some of the murkiness beyond the end of the year. But we do expect both occupancy and rate continue to improve through the end of '22. And we continue to be pleased with the pace of rate recovery through the first half of this year.

好吧，正如 Leeny 在回答之前的問題時提到的那樣，我們確實相信復甦將繼續受到入住率和房價的推動。你還聽到她提到了年底之後的一些陰暗面。但我們確實預計到 22 年底入住率和房價都會繼續提高。我們繼續對今年上半年利率恢復的步伐感到滿意。

So one other comment, Smedes, and that is that -- to remember that we're comparing to '19. So that on inflation adjusted numbers, rate has not kept up with kind of real rates. So in that regard, I think while it's fabulous and we're thrilled to see the consumers love travel and don't want to put it off, the reality is that there is inflation and that we are pricing these rooms on a very frequent basis and that, on a real rate basis, they are not back to 2019 levels.

所以另一條評論，Smedes，那就是——記住我們是在與 19 年進行比較。因此，根據通貨膨脹調整後的數字，利率並沒有跟上某種實際利率。所以在這方面，我認為雖然這很棒，我們很高興看到消費者喜歡旅行並且不想推遲旅行，但現實是存在通貨膨脹，我們會非常頻繁地為這些房間定價而且，在實際利率的基礎上，它們並沒有回到 2019 年的水平。

Our next question comes from David Katz from Jefferies. .

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 David Katz。 .

I wanted to -- I just wanted to drill down a little deeper on for corporate travel. If you could color us in just a little bit, there's so much data and useful out there about certain cities versus others, urban versus nonurban, corporate. Is there anything that you can share that you are picking up in your flow with respect to urban versus not in those various segments?

我想 - 我只是想更深入地研究商務旅行。如果你能給我們一點色彩，那裡有很多關於某些城市與其他城市、城市與非城市、企業的數據和有用的數據。你有什麼可以分享的，你在城市的流量中得到了什麼，而不是在那些不同的部分？

Well, what I can tell you, some of this may be a little more anecdotal, but the early days of the recovery were clearly dominated by leisure destinations, trailed significantly by what we saw in the urban core. In many of the major urban markets across the country and across the world, we continue to see a reasonably steady and encouraging improvement in terms of both occupancy and rate. And we hear anecdotally from our corporate clients. We're seeing more and more return to the office, which is driving business demand.

好吧，我可以告訴你的是，其中一些可能有點軼事，但復甦的早期顯然以休閒目的地為主，而我們在城市核心看到的則明顯落後。在全國和世界各地的許多主要城市市場中，我們繼續看到入住率和比率方面的穩定和令人鼓舞的改善。我們從企業客戶那裡聽到軼事。我們看到越來越多的人返回辦公室，這推動了業務需求。

And when we look at some of the big major markets that I think are decent indicators for us, you look at New York, for instance, that had an 86% occupancy in the quarter. You look at San Francisco, 78%; Washington, D.C., 76%; Los Angeles, 80%. You are seeing steady volumes of demand recovering in many of those markets that were trailing the leisure destinations.

當我們看一些我認為對我們來說是體面指標的大型主要市場時，你看看紐約，例如，該季度的入住率為 86%。你看看舊金山，78%；華盛頓特區，76%；洛杉磯，80%。您看到許多落後於休閒目的地的市場的需求量正在穩步恢復。

Understood. And just as a quick follow-up. Leeny, in your comments you made, I think, kind of a passing comment about labor. And if you could go just a little bit farther as to whether you are still seeing wages continue to increase, whether they're flat or taking some other direction and, within that, the international element within the United States and the degree to which that labor force is starting to return or whether it hasn't yet and what those outcomes might be would be helpful.

明白了。就像快速跟進一樣。 Leeny，在你的評論中，我認為，有點像關於勞動的評論。如果你能走得更遠一點，看看你是否仍然看到工資繼續增長，是持平還是採取其他方向，在此範圍內，美國國內的國際因素以及這種增長的程度勞動力正在開始返回，或者是否還沒有返回，這些結果可能會有所幫助。

Sure. Yes. We are seeing -- continuing to see hourly wages go up. And when I look at it compared to '19, the reality is, overall, and this comment is actually regarding U.S. and Canada, that it has kept up with inflation, if not just a teeny bit higher than that. It has slowed. The pace of increase has slowed. And one of the things that I think is interesting is to look at the positions that we're trying to fill if, for example, normal staffing levels were that we were trying to fill the final 95% to 100% of the positions we needed at the hotel level. Right now, we're at 93%.

當然。是的。我們看到 - 繼續看到小時工資上漲。當我將其與 19 年相比時，總體而言，現實是，這個評論實際上是關於美國和加拿大的，它一直在跟上通貨膨脹，即使不是比這高一點點。它已經放緩。增長的速度已經放緩。我認為有趣的一件事是查看我們試圖填補的職位，例如，如果正常的人員配備水平是我們試圖填補我們需要的最後 95% 到 100% 的職位在酒店層面。現在，我們達到了 93%。

So it's definitely improved. It is not back to where we were in '19 in terms of the labor shortage, but we're definitely seeing steady improvement, and the wage increases have slowed. Outside the U.S., it's much more varied. It really depends on the particular market. And I would say Europe probably has seen some more similarities to the U.S., while in Asia Pacific, for example, there's really been far less of the kind of pressures that we've seen in the U.S.

所以肯定是改進了。就勞動力短缺而言，它並沒有回到我們 19 年的水平，但我們肯定會看到穩步改善，工資增長已經放緩。在美國以外，它更加多樣化。這真的取決於特定的市場。我想說歐洲可能與美國有更多相似之處，而在亞太地區，例如，我們在美國看到的那種壓力確實要少得多。

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Brandt Montour。

Curious if you could unpack leisure demand a little bit more, and maybe let us know if you are seeing greater dispersion and pricing elasticities between your luxury end and your more middle brands.

想知道您是否可以更多地挖掘休閒需求，如果您發現奢侈品端和更多中間品牌之間存在更大的分散和定價彈性，請告訴我們。

So a couple of things. One of the easiest ways to think about luxury is that rate has continued to stay very strong. But what we've also seen is that the markets that were previously weaker, like a New York or San Francisco, the luxury hotels in those markets are now filling in. They, on average, are not necessarily quite as high as in some of the resort markets. So it actually makes it look, on a blended basis, like the gains in ADR and luxury are not as strong, while the reality is just the opposite, that they continue to be quite strong. .

所以有幾件事。考慮奢侈品的最簡單方法之一是利率繼續保持強勁。但我們也看到，以前較弱的市場，如紐約或舊金山，現在這些市場的豪華酒店正在填補空缺。平均而言，它們不一定像某些地區那樣高。度假市場。所以它實際上看起來，在混合的基礎上，ADR 和奢侈品的收益並不那麼強勁，而事實恰恰相反，它們仍然相當強勁。 .

I think one of the most encouraging things to see is that the overall luxury portfolio is continuing to gain in both occ and rate. And then as Tony was talking about earlier, I think it's also particularly encouraging to see the premium market, the Marriotts, the Sheratons, the Renaissances in kind of all markets really recovering now more in the second quarter meaningfully than they were in the first quarter.

我認為最令人鼓舞的事情之一是整體奢侈品組合在 occ 和利率方面都在繼續增長。然後正如托尼早些時候所說，我認為看到高端市場、萬豪酒店、喜來登酒店、文藝復興酒店等所有市場在第二季度的複蘇比第一季度都更加有意義，這也是特別令人鼓舞的.

So we really don't expect that we are depending on continued additional ADR gains in luxury through the rest of this year, but we do continue to see really strong demand. So I think it is tide-floats-all-boats view of what we're seeing, which is demand across all segments continuing to strengthen.

因此，我們真的不希望我們在今年剩餘時間裡依賴奢侈品的持續額外 ADR 收益，但我們確實繼續看到真正強勁的需求。所以我認為這是我們所看到的潮汐漂浮所有船隻的觀點，即所有細分市場的需求都在繼續加強。

And I think just to give some context to that, we still saw in the second quarter in the U.S. and Canada, luxury rate up 23% in the quarter versus '19. So lots of questions around how much runway we have for luxury but another really solid quarter in terms of the luxury pricing.

而且我認為只是為了提供一些背景信息，我們在美國和加拿大的第二季度仍然看到，與 19 年相比，該季度的奢侈品價格上漲了 23%。關於我們有多少奢侈品的跑道有很多問題，但在奢侈品定價方面又是一個非常穩定的季度。

That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on business travel. When you think about your large portfolio of corporate accounts, I was just curious if you could give us a sense of how much of your demand mix is earlier stage companies within technology, biotechnology and other slices of the corporate world that could potentially be reining in expenses faster than average.

這很有幫助。然後只是對商務旅行的跟進。當您考慮您龐大的企業賬戶組合時，我只是想知道您是否可以讓我們了解您的需求組合中有多少是技術、生物技術和企業界其他領域的早期公司，這些公司可能會受到控制費用高於平均水平。

Yes. So maybe I'll try. SMEs represent now about 60% to 65% of our business transient demand, which is a bit higher than what we experienced pre pandemic. The bigger corporate clients continue to steadily improve. And over time, we expect to get maybe not all the way back but closer to where we were in terms of the mix of SMEs versus large corporate clients. But right now, it's in the 60% to 65% range that is the category I think you're talking about.

是的。所以也許我會試試。中小企業現在約占我們業務瞬態需求的 60% 到 65%，這比我們在大流行前經歷的要高一些。規模較大的企業客戶繼續穩步提升。隨著時間的推移，我們預計可能不會完全恢復，但在中小企業與大型企業客戶的組合方面更接近我們的水平。但現在，我認為你正在談論的類別在 60% 到 65% 之間。

Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Michael Bellisario。

First, just a quick modeling question. I think you've given the sensitivity of $25 million to $30 million of fee revenue for 1 point change in RevPAR. What is that updated range? And then how might that ratio change looking out to 2023 in a more normalized growth environment?

首先，只是一個快速建模問題。我認為你已經給出了 2500 萬美元到 3000 萬美元的費用收入對 RevPAR 變化 1 點的敏感性。更新的範圍是多少？那麼，在更加正常化的增長環境中，到 2023 年，該比率將如何變化？

Yes. Sure. Comparing to '21, it's $25 million to $30 million per point of RevPAR in '22 versus '21. We're not in a position yet to talk about '23, all of that budgeting work. But I would expect it to continue to be somewhat similar. It varies, as you know, depending on what part of the world the improvements happen. It's obviously more per point of RevPAR compared to '19. You get into the weeds on differences in comp sets, et cetera. But it is probably closer to $40 million per point if you're comparing a point of RevPAR in '22 to 1 point of RevPAR in '19.

是的。當然。與 21 年相比，22 年與 21 年的每點 RevPAR 為 2500 萬美元至 3000 萬美元。我們還不能談論'23，所有的預算工作。但我希望它會繼續有點相似。如您所知，它會有所不同，具體取決於改進發生在世界的哪個地方。與 19 年相比，每點 RevPAR 顯然更多。您會陷入對組合差異等的雜草中。但是，如果您將 22 年的 RevPAR 點與 19 年的 RevPAR 點進行比較，那麼每點可能接近 4000 萬美元。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one follow-up on group. Can you maybe provide some details on what group planners are asking for differently today and then maybe how booking patterns are either the same or different today versus pre pandemic?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只對小組進行一次跟進。您能否提供一些關於今天團體計劃者要求不同的細節，以及今天的預訂模式與大流行前相比有何相同或不同？

Sure. Again, this will maybe be a bit anecdotal. We just held an event called The Exchange, which was where we hosted about 500 corporate and association meeting planners. In general sessions and in some smaller executive forums, we had a chance to talk to them and essentially ask the question you just asked. And I would say the 2 themes I heard most notably -- number one, they gave us high marks for our flexibility on issues like attrition during the pandemic. And I think they are hopeful we would continue to show that level of flexibility into perpetuity, which, as demand improves, we are tightening up a bit. And they understand that intellectually. They're just wishing for the good old days where they had maximum flexibility.

當然。同樣，這可能有點軼事。我們剛剛舉辦了一個名為 The Exchange 的活動，我們在那裡接待了大約 500 名公司和協會的會議策劃者。在一般會議和一些較小的高管論壇中，我們有機會與他們交談並基本上提出了您剛剛提出的問題。我想說的是我聽到的最值得注意的兩個主題——第一，它們在大流行期間在減員等問題上的靈活性給了我們很高的評價。我認為他們希望我們將繼續展示這種永續性的靈活性，隨著需求的改善，我們正在收緊一點。他們在智力上理解這一點。他們只是希望擁有最大靈活性的美好時光。

The other theme we heard loud and clear is an increasing focus on the company's efforts around all things ESG and an increasing number of our -- both corporate and association booking contracts. They are asking for not only our publicly stated goals but for reports on our progress against those goals.

我們聽到的另一個清晰而明確的主題是越來越關注公司圍繞 ESG 所做的所有努力，以及越來越多的公司和協會預訂合同。他們不僅要求我們公開聲明的目標，還要求我們報告我們在實現這些目標方面取得的進展。

And just one other interesting stat that I think is helpful is that length of stay for -- up almost 25% compared to 2019, as is the average size for new bookings. So again, I think this all continues to emphasize that associations, companies, organizations are wanting to get their people together.

還有一個我認為有用的有趣統計數據是，與 2019 年相比，逗留時間增加了近 25%，新預訂的平均規模也是如此。因此，我認為這一切都在繼續強調協會、公司、組織希望將他們的人聚集在一起。

And then one fine point that I forgot about from some of the conversations at The Exchange, they asked us from a technology perspective to do everything we can to make it easier for them to tack on a couple of leisure days to their reservation pre or post meeting, which was just another confirmation that this idea of blended trip purpose will likely endure well beyond the end of the pandemic.

然後我在 The Exchange 的一些對話中忘記了一個很好的觀點，他們從技術的角度要求我們盡我們所能，讓他們更容易在預訂前或後的幾天空閒時間進行預訂會議，這再次證實了這種混合旅行目的的想法很可能會持續到大流行結束之後。

Our next question comes from Richard Clarke from Bernstein. .

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Richard Clarke。 .

Just the first one on China. To what extent is China a normal environment now for signings but not a normal environment for construction? So how much of that is the bridge back to your mid-single digit unit growth you're expecting to get back to?

只是中國的第一個。中國現在在多大程度上是正常的簽約環境，而不是正常的建設環境？那麼，有多少是回到您期望恢復的中個位數單位增長的橋樑呢？

There's a couple of questions embedded there. I think our deal volume and our openings are off peak, but they are steadily recovering. The vast majority of our operating hotels and the vast majority of the projects in our pipeline are domestically owned. And so those domestic entities continue to benefit from the central government encouraging domestic travel across China. And many of those hotels are benefiting from increased volumes of domestic travel, albeit some pauses when certain markets go into lockdown. And so our expectation is a steady improvement, but we have not embedded in our guidance any sort of wholesale lifting of zero COVID policy that we've seen over the last couple of quarters.

那裡嵌入了幾個問題。我認為我們的交易量和開倉量都處於非高峰期，但它們正在穩步恢復。我們經營的絕大多數酒店和我們在建的絕大多數項目都是國內擁有的。因此，這些國內實體繼續受益於中央政府鼓勵的中國國內旅行。這些酒店中的許多都受益於國內旅行量的增加，儘管在某些市場進入封鎖狀態時會出現一些停頓。因此，我們的預期是穩步改善，但我們沒有在我們的指導中嵌入我們在過去幾個季度看到的任何形式的零 COVID 政策的大規模取消。

Okay. Maybe just a quick follow-up, if I may. I noticed your kind of capital returns guidance says that depends on whether you do any disposals this year. I mean is that likely, are you looking at the owned portfolio again? Are there any potential disposals to come?

好的。如果可以的話，也許只是一個快速的跟進。我注意到你的資本回報指導說這取決於你今年是否進行任何處置。我的意思是這有可能，您是否再次查看擁有的投資組合？是否有任何潛在的處置？

We're always looking, but the numbers that I gave do not assume any additional asset sales this year.

我們一直在尋找，但我給出的數字並未假設今年有任何額外的資產出售。

The next question comes from Vince Ciepiel from Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Vince Ciepiel。

Really encouraging to see margins ahead, IMFs ahead. It sounds like cost reduction efforts are certainly helping to offset the labor wage pressure. But as you dig into that, I'd be curious how you're thinking about the customer experience from the average Bonvoy guest. I know there's been some surveys out which can be lagging, talking about how the consumer feels about scaled-back breakfast offerings, changes in housekeeping. So as you look at things more recently, how do you think the guest is feeling today versus summer of 2019?

看到未來的利潤，國際貨幣基金組織，真的令人鼓舞。聽起來降低成本的努力肯定有助於抵消勞動力工資壓力。但是當您深入研究時，我會很好奇您如何看待普通 Bonvoy 客人的客戶體驗。我知道有一些調查可能滯後，談論消費者對縮減早餐供應的看法，以及家政服務的變化。因此，當您查看最近的情況時，您認為客人今天與 2019 年夏天相比感覺如何？

I would say it's very much a work in progress, but we are really encouraged by the metrics that we monitor through guest satisfaction surveys and particularly the intent-to-return numbers. We're not quite back to where we were pre pandemic, but we have made meaningful and steady progress on those metrics.

我會說這是一項正在進行中的工作，但我們通過客戶滿意度調查監測的指標，尤其是回頭客意向數字，確實讓我們感到鼓舞。我們還沒有完全回到大流行前的狀態，但我們在這些指標上取得了有意義且穩定的進展。

As you may recall from some prior earnings calls, in the depths of the pandemic, we suspended some of those quality metrics. Those are all back in place now, brand, standard, audits, guest surveys. And the teams -- we just went through our quarterly business reviews. All of our teams around the world are keenly focused on driving intent to return. And we're pretty encouraged. And I think it's reflected in the manner in which our most loyal Bonvoy customers continue to engage. Our top tier within Bonvoy, the ambassador tier, has remained very active. 96% of our ambassadors had at least one stay or points transaction in '21, they averaged about 100 nights, and we see those metrics improving as well. We have rolled out our new housekeeping protocols, and the early returns from our guests is they like the certainty that, that offers.

正如您可能從之前的一些財報電話會議中回憶的那樣，在大流行最嚴重的時候，我們暫停了其中一些質量指標。這些現在都恢復了，品牌、標準、審計、客人調查。還有團隊——我們剛剛完成了季度業務審查。我們在世界各地的所有團隊都非常專注於推動回歸的意圖。我們很受鼓舞。我認為這反映在我們最忠實的 Bonvoy 客戶繼續參與的方式上。我們在 Bonvoy 中的最高層，大使層，一直非常活躍。我們 96% 的大使在 21 年至少進行過一次住宿或積分交易，他們平均入住約 100 晚，我們看到這些指標也在改善。我們推出了新的客房服務協議，客人的早期回報是他們喜歡所提供的確定性。

And then, separately, on distribution, encouraging to see loyalty contribution exceed '19 levels, digital bookings hitting all-time high. Curious how you're thinking about kind of the next 12 months, that ideal distribution mix between corporate, group and leisure as some of those buckets are starting to recover more fully. I mean consider ADR differentials between those 3 and then maybe day of week occupancy needs, how are you planning the business over the next 12 months? And maybe within that, how are you thinking about OTA as a percentage of the mix going forward?

然後，在分銷方面，令人鼓舞的是，忠誠度貢獻超過了 19 年的水平，數字預訂創下歷史新高。好奇你如何看待未來 12 個月，企業、團體和休閒之間的理想分銷組合，因為其中一些桶開始更充分地恢復。我的意思是考慮這 3 個之間的 ADR 差異，然後可能是每週的入住需求，您如何規劃未來 12 個月的業務？也許在其中，您如何看待 OTA 在未來的組合中所佔的百分比？

So maybe I'll go in reverse order, pre pandemic, looking at a year like '19, we have seen steady reduction in the percentage of total room nights that came out of the OTAs, during the first 2 years with pandemic, as you might expect, we saw OTA volume rise, but direct bookings rose more rapidly. And I think it's reasonable to expect in the coming quarters that we would start to get back to the trend line we saw prepandemic of the total volume of OTA contribution moderating.

所以也許我會按照相反的順序，在大流行之前，看看像 19 年這樣的一年，在大流行的前 2 年，我們已經看到 OTA 的總房晚百分比穩步下降，因為你可以預期，我們看到 OTA 量增加，但直接預訂量增長更快。我認為在接下來的幾個季度中，我們可以合理地預期我們將開始回到我們在大流行前看到的 OTA 貢獻總量放緩的趨勢線。

I think your first question was really more around mix by segment. Back in '19 in round numbers, about 40% of our business was leisure. 37% was business transient. 20% was group and 4% was contract. In the second quarter, business transient had risen to about 32%. Leisure transient was 43%. Group was 21%, and contract was pretty steady at 4%.

我認為您的第一個問題實際上更多是關於按段混合。回到 19 年，我們大約 40% 的業務是休閒。 37% 是臨時業務。 20％是團體，4％是合同。在第二季度，業務瞬變率已上升至約 32%。短暫的休閒為 43%。集團為 21%，而合約則相當穩定在 4%。

But remember, the leisure segment was already our most rapidly growing segment even in 2019 before the pandemic hit. And we continue to see -- expect to see leisure to grow rapidly. And as I've said in some previous calls, this blending of trip purpose may make it that much tougher for us to tell you with absolute precision what that mix looks like.

但請記住，即使在大流行爆發之前的 2019 年，休閒部分已經是我們增長最快的部分。我們繼續看到 - 期望看到休閒迅速增長。正如我在之前的一些電話中所說的那樣，這種混合旅行目的可能會讓我們更難以絕對精確的方式告訴你這種混合是什麼樣子的。

And I think to your question about revenue management strategy, as we think about going forward, it has been very encouraging to see the strength of group and the strength of group rate. So as we think about all the possible outcomes for the economy over the next couple of years, that strength in group is quite encouraging. And then obviously, on the transient side, the booking window there is about 3 weeks. So that tends to -- which is, frankly, back to about where it was in '19, and that will vary with customers' needs and wants as we see things unfold.

我認為對於您關於收入管理策略的問題，當我們考慮前進時，看到集團的實力和集團利率的實力非常令人鼓舞。因此，當我們考慮未來幾年經濟的所有可能結果時，這種群體的力量是非常令人鼓舞的。然後很明顯，在臨時方面，預訂窗口大約是 3 週。因此，坦率地說，這往往會回到 19 年的水平，隨著我們看到事情的發展，這將隨著客戶的需求和需求而變化。

Our next question comes from Will Crow -- sorry, Dori Kesten from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Will Crow——抱歉，來自 Wells Fargo 的 Dori Kesten。

Are you -- can you provide more details on cross-border travel regionally, who's leading and lagging outside of Asia Pacific as compared to '19? And then just any changes you've noted in spend?

您能否提供更多有關區域跨境旅行的詳細信息，與 19 年相比，誰在亞太地區以外領先和落後？然後你注意到支出的任何變化？

Sure. So let's talk super high level at first, which is that if pre pandemic, we were in the, call it, 18% to 19% sort of cross-border travel around the world that, that number fell and was down in the -- a little bit north of 10% and then has clearly moved back up several hundred basis points, particularly as we got into Q2. But we are not back to the same level of cross-border travel. Obviously, particularly with Asia Pacific and Greater China still being very much domestic travel based.

當然。所以讓我們首先談談超高水平，也就是說，如果在大流行之前，我們在全球範圍內進行了 18% 到 19% 的跨境旅行，這個數字下降並下降了 -略高於 10%，然後明顯回升數百個基點，尤其是在我們進入第二季度時。但我們並沒有回到跨境旅行的同一水平。顯然，尤其是亞太地區和大中華地區仍以國內旅遊為主。

The thing I did find interesting in Q2 in the U.S. was that we were pretty close to being back to the number of international -- the percentage of international nights. We were pre pandemic at 5%. And in Q2, we were at 4% coming from cross-border travel. I think the biggest shift that you saw was obviously partly a function of opening kind of more comfort travel and then the strong dollar. And that had a massive impact on Europe in the summer, and you saw a very large influx of U.S. travelers coming into Europe, which helped their RevPAR tremendously.

我在美國第二季度確實發現有趣的事情是，我們非常接近回到國際住宿的數量——國際住宿的百分比。我們是大流行前的 5%。在第二季度，我們有 4% 來自跨境旅行。我認為你看到的最大轉變顯然部分是開放了一種更舒適的旅行，然後是強勢美元。這在夏季對歐洲產生了巨大影響，你看到大量美國遊客湧入歐洲，這極大地幫助了他們的 RevPAR。

And I might just add on that, Dori, it was just towards the tail end of the quarter where you saw the U.S. government rolled back the inbound international testing requirement, and we think that's going to be another accelerant for cross-border travel. In fact, right after that policy change was announced, the USTA came out and estimated that they thought that would drive 5.4 million incremental visitors to the U.S. in the back half of the year. with about $9 billion of spend.

我可以補充一點，Dori，就在本季度末，你看到美國政府取消了入境國際測試要求，我們認為這將成為跨境旅行的另一個促進因素。事實上，就在政策變化宣布後，美國網球協會出面估計，他們認為這將在今年下半年推動 540 萬新增遊客前往美國。花費約 90 億美元。

Our next question comes from Will Crow from Raymond James. .

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Will Crow。 .

You talked about the murkiness beyond the end of the year, but I'm just curious, how much visibility do you actually have on the Labor Day?

你談到了年底之後的陰暗面，但我只是好奇，你在勞動節實際上有多少能見度？

Well, again, as we talked about before, you've got the short booking window on transient, but you've also got holiday bookings. When you look at December, when you look at Thanksgiving, Columbus Day as well as Labor Day. And I think across all of those, we continue to be reminded that people are not willing to give up travel and that you're seeing it in the strong rate and strong early bookings for those periods. And they are obviously overwhelmingly leisure bookings and group also continuing to fill in very nicely.

好吧，再一次，正如我們之前談到的，你有短暫的預訂窗口，但你也有假期預訂。當您查看十二月時，當您查看感恩節、哥倫布日以及勞動節時。而且我認為在所有這些方面，我們繼續被提醒人們不願意放棄旅行，並且您在那些時期的強勁價格和強勁的早期預訂中看到了這一點。他們顯然絕大多數是休閒預訂，團體也繼續很好地填寫。

So I think we -- when we look at what's on the books, as we move into either even September and October, while you're right that the percentage that is on the books is still relatively low on the transient side the pace of those bookings is very encouraging.

所以我認為我們 - 當我們查看賬簿上的內容時，即使我們進入 9 月和 10 月，而您是對的，賬簿上的百分比在暫時性方面仍然相對較低預訂非常令人鼓舞。

If I could follow up on that on the holiday bookings. It's interesting, Wyndham talked about Florida RevPAR being down double digit compared to 2021 in July. And I'm curious if we were to look at it on a 1-year basis instead of going back to 2019 what your thoughts are on, at holiday buckets?

如果我可以跟進假期預訂。有趣的是，溫德姆談到佛羅里達州的 RevPAR 與 7 月份的 2021 年相比下降了兩位數。我很好奇我們是否要以 1 年為基礎來看待它，而不是回到 2019 年，在假期裡你的想法是什麼？

I'd have to -- I can get Jackie and Betsy to get back to you on the specifics for December '22 versus December 21. I think, again, the overall comment that I'll make is that we continue to see really strong bookings for the end of the year. One of the things that I talked about in luxury is the reality that as you see some of the other luxury markets start to fill in that aren't necessarily as high ADR as some of the resorts that starts to muddy the waters a little bit, but that's a good issue.

我必須——我可以讓 Jackie 和 Betsy 就 12 月 22 日與 12 月 21 日的具體情況回复你。我想，我要再次發表的總體評論是，我們繼續看到非常強勁年底預定。我在奢侈品方面談到的一件事是現實，正如你所看到的，其他一些奢侈品市場開始填補這些市場並不一定像一些度假村那樣高 ADR，開始有點混水，但這是個好問題。

Remember that right now, the percentage that is on our books for that period is probably under 5%. So it's really quite small and making big sweeping statements with that small amount on the books probably doesn't make sense. But when we think about the pace for the holiday periods, we continue to be really encouraged.

請記住，現在，我們在那個時期的賬簿上的百分比可能低於 5%。所以它真的很小，在書本上用這麼少的錢做大的、籠統的陳述可能是沒有意義的。但是，當我們考慮假期的節奏時，我們仍然受到鼓舞。

That's perfect. If I could just ask one quick question on the development signings, any change in the composition of the signings, say, from full service to select service given construction cost and financing environment?

那很完美。如果我可以簡單地問一個關於開發簽約的問題，簽約的組成是否有任何變化，例如，考慮到建設成本和融資環境，從全方位服務到選擇服務？

On the signing side, we've seen a bit of a slowing in select service here in the U.S., but some of that may be because of the high volume of conversions are disproportionately full service. What I can tell you is in terms of monthly approval volumes coming out of our development committees, we are seeing exactly what we would have expected, which is our large multi-unit long-term developers and owners of select-service hotels gearing their development organizations back up, and that's driving the sort of approval volume we've seen through the first half of the year.

在簽約方面，我們看到美國的精選服務有所放緩，但其中一些可能是因為大量的轉換是不成比例的全面服務。我可以告訴你的是，就我們開發委員會的月度批准量而言，我們看到的正是我們所期望的，即我們的大型多單元長期開發商和精選服務酒店的所有者正在加速他們的發展組織支持，這推動了我們在今年上半年看到的那種批准量。

And our last question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

And most have been asked. But just on group recovery, can you contrast the type of group events that happen in a month like June with group events that happen in a month like September? In a sense, business was competing with leisure this summer. And I think you threw out the June down 2 on group relative to '19. Would you expect that down 2 to kind of maintain? Or would you expect that gap to hold or narrow as we get to a more business-dependent period like September?

大多數人都被問到了。但就集體恢復而言，你能否將發生在像六月這樣的月份的集體事件與發生在像九月這樣的月份的集體事件的類型進行對比？從某種意義上說，這個夏天，商務與休閒競爭。而且我認為您在相對於 19 年的小組中淘汰了 6 月 2 日。你會期望下降2保持嗎？或者，隨著我們進入像 9 月這樣更加依賴業務的時期，您是否預計這種差距會保持或縮小？

So I'll just give you one comment. I think the shift won't be a massive shift. I think there's still going to be a lot of social group events going into the fall as well. When we look at what's on the books, it was only down 1% right now from Q3. And here we are barely into Q3. So I think we -- as we said before, we've got the possibility that actually group ends up higher than 2019 relative to Q2 when it was still down a little bit.

所以我只給你一個評論。我認為這種轉變不會是巨大的轉變。我認為秋季仍然會有很多社交團體活動。當我們查看賬面上的內容時，它現在僅比第三季度下降了 1%。在這裡，我們幾乎沒有進入第三季度。所以我認為我們 - 正如我們之前所說，我們有可能實際組最終高於 2019 年相對於第二季度仍然略有下降的第二季度。

So we are seeing great demand on the part of corporate customers for getting their people together. And I think you're going to continue to see the social events as well. So I wouldn't necessarily note a huge swing based on your comment that it is more a business-oriented quarter. The only other thing I will point out is that August is typically a seasonally quieter months for us in group just because of the realities of family vacations and people not being in school. So I think August, you should expect what we've always seen, which is a relatively seasonally more light period on the group side.

因此，我們看到企業客戶對將員工聚集在一起的需求很大。而且我認為您還將繼續看到社交活動。因此，根據您的評論，我不一定會注意到巨大的波動，即它更像是一個以業務為導向的季度。我要指出的唯一另一件事是，由於家庭度假和人們不上學的現實，八月對於我們團體來說通常是一個季節性安靜的月份。所以我認為 8 月，你應該期待我們一直看到的情況，這是小組方面相對季節性較淡的時期。

And that is all the questions we have. I will now turn the conference back over to our speakers. .

這就是我們的所有問題。我現在將會議轉回給我們的發言人。 .

Well, thank you all for joining us. It's a compelling and exciting story about the resiliency of travel and the resilience of Marriott's business model. We look forward to seeing you all on the road soon, and thanks again for your interest.

嗯，謝謝大家加入我們。這是一個關於旅行彈性和萬豪商業模式彈性的引人入勝且令人興奮的故事。我們期待很快在路上見到大家，並再次感謝您的關注。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time. Have a great day.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接。祝你有美好的一天。