萬豪國際 (MAR) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Marriott International Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

各位好，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2022年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）

Please note this call may be recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jackie Burka. Please go ahead.

請注意，本次通話可能會被錄音。現在我很高興將今天的節目交給傑基·伯卡主持。請開始吧。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Business Operations; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝大家。早安，歡迎參加萬豪酒店集團2022年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席會議的有：執行長托尼·卡普阿諾；財務長兼業務營運執行副總裁莉妮·奧伯格；以及投資者關係副總裁貝齊·達姆。

I will remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

我在此提醒各位，我們今天所作的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法所界定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，具體內容已在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中闡述，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致未來的實際結果與我們評論中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿及評論中的陳述僅對今天有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

Please also note that, unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy and ADR comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and include hotels temporarily closed due to COVID-19. RevPAR occupancy and ADR comparisons between 2022 and 2019 reflects properties that are defined as comparable as of June 30, 2022, and even if they were not open and operating for the full year 2019 or they did not meet all the other criteria for comparable in 2019.

另請注意，除非另有說明，我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 入住率和平均房價 (ADR) 數據反映的是系統範圍內可比酒店的固定匯率結果，其中包括因新冠疫情而暫時關閉的酒店。 2022 年與 2019 年的 RevPAR 入住率和 ADR 對比數據反映的是截至 2022 年 6 月 30 日被定義為可比較的酒店，即使這些酒店在 2019 年全年未營業或未滿足 2019 年所有其他可比酒店標準。

Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons to pre pandemic, or 2019, are comparing the same time period in each year. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website. And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

此外，除非另有說明，所有與疫情前或2019年的比較均指每年同一時期的情況。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及今天發言中提及的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。現在我將把電話會議交給東尼。

Thank you, Jackie, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We are very pleased with our second quarter results, which were driven by robust demand for our brands around the world. By the last month of the quarter, RevPAR in all regions outside of Asia Pacific had more than fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, leading to June global RevPAR 1% above 2019. Worldwide occupancy for the month rose to 71%, just 5 percentage points below prepandemic levels with global ADR an impressive 8% over the same month in 2019.

謝謝Jackie，也謝謝各位今天上午的參與。我們對第二季的業績非常滿意，這主要得益於全球範圍內對我們品牌的強勁需求。到本季度最後一個月，除亞太地區以外的所有地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）均已完全恢復到疫情前水平，並超過疫情前水平，使得6月份全球RevPAR比2019年同期增長了1%。當月全球入住率上升至71%，僅比疫情前水準低5個百分點，全球平均房價（ADR）也比2019年同期成長了8%，表現令人矚目。

Demand across all customer segments improved during the quarter. Record leisure demand strengthened further with second quarter global leisure transient room nights 14% above the 2019 second quarter.

本季所有客戶群的需求均有所改善。休閒旅遊需求持續走強，第二季全球休閒旅遊散客客房夜數較2019年第二季成長14%。

Group demand experienced the greatest acceleration. In the U.S. and Canada, Group RevPAR had nearly fully recovered in June down just 1% to 2019 compared to down 17% in March. Group revenue pace for the back half of the year has also continued to improve. June in the year, for the year, new bookings were up 50% compared to those bookings in June of 2019. At the end of the second quarter, group RevPAR for the remainder of 2022 was pacing just a few percentage points down to 2019. We expect additional short-term bookings will further bolster group revenues, which could lead to second half group RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada being even to even up slightly compared to 2019.

團體需求成長最為顯著。在美國和加拿大，團體每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）在6月份幾乎完全恢復，僅比2019年同期下降1%，而3月份的降幅為17%。下半年團體收入成長率也持續改善。今年6月的新預訂量比2019年6月增加了50%。截至第二季末，2022年剩餘時間的團體RevPAR成長率僅比2019年同期略低幾個百分點。我們預計，短期預訂量的增加將進一步提振團體收入，這可能會使美國和加拿大下半年的團體RevPAR與2019年同期持平或略有成長。

Our sales team remains focused on driving group average rate, which has been steadily rising for new bookings. At our hotels in the U.S. and Canada, ADR for in the year, for the year group bookings made in January was just above 2019 levels. But by June, the rate had risen to up 16%. Business transient demand also strengthened, albeit at a more moderate pace as workers return to the office in greater numbers. In the U.S. June business transient room nights were 9% below the same month in 2019 versus down about 20% in the first quarter.

我們的銷售團隊始終致力於提升團體平均房價，新預訂的平均房價一直在穩步上升。在美國和加拿大的飯店，1月的團體預訂年平均房價略高於2019年同期水準。但到了6月份，這數字已上漲16%。商務散客的需求也有所增強，儘管隨著更多員工返回辦公室，成長較為溫和。在美國，6月份商務散客客房夜數比2019年同期下降了9%，而第一季則下降了約20%。

Day of the week trends in the U.S. and Canada suggest that travelers are continuing to combine leisure and business streams. While occupancy midweek has continued to recover, in June, Monday through Wednesday occupancy was still around 10 percentage points below 2019. Occupancy on Fridays and Saturdays was fully recovered, and occupancy on Thursdays and Sundays, typically known as shoulder nights, was close to 2019 levels.

美國和加拿大的周中出行趨勢表明，旅客仍在繼續將休閒和商務旅行結合起來。雖然周中入住率持續回升，但6月週一至週三的入住率仍比2019年同期低約10個百分點。週五和週六的入住率已完全恢復，而通常被稱為「淡季」的週四和週日的入住率也接近2019年的水平。

With nearly all major countries around the world having opened their borders rising cross-border travel was another key driver of the solid recovery during the quarter. However, cross-border travel is still not fully back to prepandemic levels. So there is still additional upside, especially from Greater China, where stringent travel restrictions remain in place.

隨著全球幾乎所有主要國家開放邊境，跨境旅行的成長成為本季經濟穩健復甦的另一個關鍵驅動因素。然而，跨境旅行尚未完全恢復到疫情前的水準。因此，經濟仍有進一步成長的空間，尤其是在大中華區，該地區目前仍實施嚴格的旅行限制。

While we are closely monitoring consumer and macroeconomic trends, we have yet to see signs of a slowdown in global lodging demand. On the contrary, the pent-up demand for all types of travel, the shift of spending towards experiences versus goods, sustained high levels of employment and the lifting of travel restrictions and opening borders in most markets around the world are fueling travel. And as Leeny will discuss, we expect to see continued RevPAR recovery through the end of the year.

儘管我們密切關註消費者和宏觀經濟趨勢，但尚未發現全球住宿需求放緩的跡象。相反，各類旅行的積壓需求、消費支出從商品轉向體驗、持續高企的就業水平以及全球大部分市場解除旅行限制和開放邊境，都在推動旅遊業的發展。正如Leeny將要討論的那樣，我們預計RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）將持續復甦至年底。

As travelers get back on the road in increasing numbers, our 169 million Bonvoy members are more actively engaging with our powerful loyalty platform. Monthly active users of our app, digital visits and direct digital bookings, which help drive the owner and franchisee profitability, all reached new highs in June. Additionally, more members are earning and using points outside of a hotel stay as a result of our focus on enhancing the platform through numerous collaborations.

隨著越來越多的旅客重返旅途，我們1.69億萬富翁會員也更加積極地使用我們強大的會員忠誠度平台。 6月份，我們應用程式的月活躍用戶數、線上訪問量和直接線上預訂量均創下新高，這有助於提升酒店業主和加盟商的盈利能力。此外，由於我們致力於透過多項合作來增強平台功能，越來越多的會員開始在飯店住宿之外賺取和使用積分。

The number of Bonvoy co-brand credit card holders is climbing globally with card acquisitions and total card spend both hitting record levels in the second quarter. Remarkably, the number of global card accounts rose 16% from the end of 2019 through the end of the second quarter this year. In July, we introduced a new credit card in China, and the initial response has been tremendous.

萬豪旅享家聯名信用卡持卡人數量在全球持續攀升，第二季新增持卡量和總消費額均創歷史新高。值得一提的是，全球信用卡帳戶數量較2019年底增加了16%。今年7月，我們在中國推出了新的信用卡，市場反應熱烈。

Turning to the development front. The pace of deal activity continues to pick up. In the second quarter, we signed another 135 deals, a second quarter record following a record first quarter. Additionally, despite supply chain issues, labor shortages, cost inflation and rising interest rates, the number of deals falling out of the pipeline remains below historical levels.

再來看開發方面。交易活動持續加速。第二季度，我們新增簽署135筆交易，繼第一季創紀錄之後，第二季也再創新高。此外，儘管面臨供應鏈問題、勞動力短缺、成本上漲和利率上升等挑戰，但最終未能達成的交易數量仍低於歷史水準。

Interest in conversions remains particularly strong, given the breadth of our roster of conversion-friendly brands across chain scales as owners continue to seek out the meaningful top and bottom line benefits associated with being part of the Marriott portfolio. Conversions represented 30% of room signings in the quarter.

鑑於我們旗下擁有眾多適合轉換的品牌，涵蓋各種規模的連鎖飯店，業主們對轉換的興趣依然十分濃厚，他們持續尋求加入萬豪酒店集團所帶來的實際收益。本季度，轉換預訂佔客房總數的30%。

One win to highlight is a recent landmark agreement for 8 hotels in Vietnam with Vinpearl, a new owner to our system. The deal includes 6 conversion hotels that are expected to add 1,700 rooms to the system. Conversions also represented 25% of the roughly 17,000 rooms added to our system in the quarter. While construction time lines have lengthened a bit this year in most markets due to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, we still expect the number of room additions to ramp in the second half of the year.

值得一提的是，我們近期與越南新業主 Vinpearl 達成了一項里程碑式的協議，將在越南經營 8 家酒店。該協議包括 6 家改建酒店，預計將為該系統新增 1700 間客房。改建飯店也佔本季新增客房總數（約 17,000 間）的 25%。儘管由於供應鏈中斷和勞動力短缺，今年大多數市場的建設工期有所延長，但我們仍然預計下半年新增客房數量將大幅增加。

For the full year, gross additions are still anticipated to approach 5%.

預計全年新增總收入仍將接近 5%。

Given our announcement several weeks ago that we are suspending all operations in Russia, we now expect a 1.5% to 2% deletion rate for 2022. While our expectation for deletions outside of Russia remains at 1% to 1.5%, the deletion of 6,500 rooms in the country represents almost 0.5 percentage point. Now as a reminder, fees from Russia represented well under 0.5% of global fees in 2019. We have not been recognizing fees from Russia for many months now, and the financial impact of these rooms leaving is de minimis. So our net rooms growth for 2022 could now be 3% to 3.5% or 3.5% to 4% before factoring in the deletions in Russia.

鑑於我們幾週前宣布暫停在俄羅斯的所有運營，我們現在預計2022年的客房刪除率為1.5%至2%。雖然我們預期俄羅斯以外地區的客房刪除率仍為1%至1.5%，但俄羅斯境內6,500間客房的刪除量相當於近0.5個百分點。需要提醒的是，2019年來自俄羅斯的費用佔全球費用的比例遠低於0.5%。我們已數月未確認來自俄羅斯的費用，這些客房的流失對財務的影響微乎其微。因此，在不計入俄羅斯客房刪除的影響的情況下，我們2022年的淨客房成長率可能為3%至3.5%或3.5%至4%。

We remain confident that over the next several years, we will return to our prepandemic mid-single-digit net rooms growth rate. The timing will largely depend on when new construction starts, which have trailed well below 2019 levels for the last 2 years really begin to accelerate, particularly here in the U.S. Construction time lines in the U.S. are currently just over 2 years for a limited service hotel and longer for full-service properties.

我們仍有信心，未來幾年內，我們將恢復到疫情前個位數的中段淨客房成長率。具體時間很大程度上取決於新酒店開工量何時開始加速成長，過去兩年新酒店開工量一直遠低於2019年的水平，尤其是在美國。目前，美國有限服務型飯店的建設週期略超過兩年，而全服務型飯店則較長。

Looking ahead with the largest footprint in the industry, strong builder affinity for our brands and the improving global travel environment, I am bullish about the company's future growth prospects for development and for the company overall. I want to take a moment and thank all of our associates around the world. Their commitment to taking care of our guests has helped produce our outstanding results, and I'm so very proud of their dedication and resilience. And now I'll turn the call over to Leeny to discuss our financial results in more detail.

展望未來，憑藉著業界最大的市場份額、建築商對我們品牌的強大忠誠度以及不斷改善的全球旅行環境，我對公司未來的發展前景以及整體業績充滿信心。我想藉此機會感謝我們全球所有員工。他們對賓客的悉心照顧幫助我們取得了卓越的業績，我為他們的奉獻精神和堅韌不拔感到無比自豪。現在，我將把電話交給Leeny，讓她更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Tony. Global RevPAR continued to rebound sharply, and Marriott reported outstanding financial results in the second quarter. Record quarterly global fees and adjusted EBITDA were both 7% above the same quarter in 2019. Second quarter global RevPAR was down only 3% compared to prepandemic levels. .

謝謝你，托尼。全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）持續強勁反彈，萬豪酒店集團第二季財務業績表現優異。季度全球費用和調整後EBITDA均創歷史新高，較2019年同期成長7%。第二季全球RevPAR僅比疫情前水準下降3%。

Looking at the regions. In the U.S. and Canada, RevPAR came in ahead of our expectations largely due to stronger-than-anticipated growth in ADR and group demand. Compared to 2019, RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada was up 1% in the quarter and up 3% in June. ADR has improved each month this year, reaching 9% above prepandemic levels in June.

從區域來看，美國和加拿大的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）超乎預期，主要得益於平均房價（ADR）和團體需求的強勁成長。與2019年同期相比，美國和加拿大的RevPAR在本季成長了1%，6月成長了3%。今年以來，平均房價逐月上漲，6月份比疫情前水準高出9%。

Occupancy further strengthened from the first to the second quarter on both an absolute basis and versus prepandemic levels. June occupancy of 76% was within 4 percentage points of the same month in 2019.

從第一季到第二季度，入住率無論從絕對值或與疫情前水準相比，都進一步提升。 6月份的入住率為76%，與2019年同期相比僅相差4個百分點。

In June, U.S. and Canada RevPAR more than fully recovered across all market types, primary, secondary and tertiary for the first time since the pandemic began. It has been very encouraging to see demand come back so powerfully in major cities like New York, where RevPAR increased 7% versus June 2019. With orders opened in Europe, the room nights from international guests more than doubled in the region from the first quarter to the second. With this strong return of international travel, Europe has experienced the swiftest RevPAR recovery of all of our regions this year. RevPAR in Europe topped 2019 levels in June, a remarkable 57 percentage point increase from January.

6月份，美國和加拿大所有市場類型（包括一級、二級和三級市場）的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）均實現了自疫情爆發以來的首次全面復甦。尤其令人鼓舞的是，紐約等主要城市的需求強勁反彈，RevPAR較2019年6月成長了7%。隨著歐洲市場訂單的開放，該地區國際遊客的客房夜數較第一季翻了一番以上。國際旅行的強勁復甦使得歐洲成為今年所有地區中RevPAR復甦速度最快的地區。歐洲6月的RevPAR已超過2019年同期水平，較1月實現了驚人的57個百分點的成長。

Cross-border travel also helped drive strong second quarter results in the Middle East and Africa and in the Caribbean and Latin America area. Second quarter RevPAR rose 16% in EMEA and 13% in CALA compared to 2019. Asia Pacific, excluding China, saw rapid RevPAR improvement during the second quarter as the region is now mostly open with India and Australia more than fully recovered. Second quarter RevPAR was down 22% compared to 2019 given the lack of travelers from Greater China and the fact that rigorous travel restrictions remain in place in Japan, one of our largest markets in the region.

跨國旅行也推動了中東和非洲以及加勒比海和拉丁美洲地區第二季業績的強勁成長。與2019年相比，第二季EMEA地區的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）成長了16%，CALA地區成長了13%。亞太地區（不包括中國）在第二季RevPAR迅速改善，因為該地區目前大部分地區已開放，印度和澳洲的旅遊業已基本恢復。由於大中華區遊客數量不足，以及日本（該地區最大的市場之一）仍然實施嚴格的旅遊限制，第二季RevPAR較2019年下降了22%。

Greater China continues to lag the recovery of other regions due to its strict zero COVID policy. RevPAR during the quarter declined more than 50% compared to 2019 as a result of the lockdowns in many cities, including Shanghai and Beijing.

由於嚴格的「零感染」政策，大中華區的復甦持續落後於其他地區。受上海、北京等多個城市封鎖的影響，本季每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）較2019年同期下降超過50%。

Total company gross fee revenues totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter driven by higher RevPAR, rooms growth and another quarter of significant growth in our non-RevPAR-related franchise fees. Those fees totaled $204 million in the second quarter driven largely by growth in our co-brand credit card fees, which rose a remarkable 38% year-over-year.

本季公司總收入達11億美元，主要得益於每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的增長、客房數量的增加以及與RevPAR無關的特許經營費連續第二個季度大幅增長。第二季特許經營費總額達2.04億美元，主要成長來自聯名信用卡手續費，該費用年增高達38%。

Incentive management fees, or IMF, increased meaningfully in the quarter, reaching $135 million. Over half of our IMFs came from U.S. and Canada, where we earned more IMFs than we did in the second quarter of 2019. At the hotel level, working closely with our owners and franchisees to contain operating costs while delivering superior customer service remains the key area of focus. Profit margins at our U.S. managed hotels were 3 percentage points higher than 2019 levels in the second quarter despite meaningful wage and benefit inflation. We are keeping an eye on wages and benefits as industry staffing challenges persist in certain markets, yet we remain optimistic that our cost reduction efforts could offset this inflation in future years.

本季激勵管理費（IMF）顯著成長，達到1.35億美元。超過一半的IMF來自美國和加拿大，這兩個地區的IMF收入超過了2019年第二季的水準。在飯店層面，我們與業主和加盟商緊密合作，在控制營運成本的同時提供卓越的客戶服務，仍然是工作的重點。儘管薪資和福利大幅上漲，但我們在美國管理的飯店利潤率在第二季仍比2019年同期水準高出3個百分點。鑑於部分市場持續面臨行業人員配置挑戰，我們將密切關注薪資和福利狀況，但我們仍然樂觀地認為，未來幾年我們的成本削減措施能夠抵消這種通膨的影響。

G&A and other expenses totaled $231 million in the second quarter primarily due to higher incentive compensation accruals as well as increased travel expense. With COVID now essentially endemic, global borders overwhelmingly open and business somewhat more predictable, we're providing guidance for the third quarter and the full year. The full details are in our press release. There is still a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty in our outlook, especially as it relates to Greater China, but we are encouraged by the positive momentum in demand across customer segments and robust ADRs in the vast majority of markets around the world.

第二季一般及行政費用及其他費用總計2.31億美元，主要原因是激勵性薪酬提列增加以及差旅費用上升。鑑於新冠疫情已基本成為全球性流行病，全球邊境已基本開放，業務也更加可預測，我們現發布第三季及全年業績指引。詳情請見新聞稿。儘管我們對前景仍存在高於往常的不確定性，尤其是在大中華區，但我們對各客戶群需求的積極增長勢頭以及全球絕大多數市場強勁的平均存託比率（ADR）感到鼓舞。

We expect the global RevPAR recovery to continue each quarter through the end of the year driven by improving occupancy and ADR compared to 2019 in both the U.S. and Canada and internationally. On a worldwide basis compared to 2019, we could see RevPAR flat to up 3% in the third quarter and down 6% to down 3% through the full year. Compared to 2021, global RevPAR in the third quarter could be up in the mid-30% range, and for the full year, it could be up around 50%.

我們預計，受美國、加拿大及國際市場入住率和平均房價（ADR）較2019年有所改善的推動，全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）將持續復甦，直至年底。與2019年相比，全球第三季RevPAR可能持平或成長3%，全年則可能下降3%至6%。與2021年相比，全球第三季RevPAR可能成長30%左右，全年則可能成長50%左右。

For the full year, we're now anticipating G&A expenses of $890 million to $900 million due to higher compensation accruals as well as travel expenses but still well below (technical difficulty) G&A. And we expect adjusted EBITDA of $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion, above our prior full year peak in 2019. We now expect full year investment spending of $600 million to $650 million. Our guidance now includes roughly $200 million for maintenance capital in our new headquarters. Loyalty is still expected to be a slight use of cash for the full year before factoring in the reduced payments received from the credit card companies.

由於薪資提列增加以及差旅費用上升，我們預計全年一般及行政費用（G&A）為8.9億美元至9億美元，但仍遠低於（技術性問題）G&A。我們預計調整後EBITDA為37億美元至38億美元，高於2019年全年的高峰。我們預計全年投資支出為6億美元至6.5億美元。我們的預期包括約2億美元用於新總部的維護資本。在未計入信用卡公司付款減少的情況下，預計全年忠誠度計劃仍將略微佔用現金。

At the end of the second quarter, our leverage was in the low end of our targeted range of 3 to 3.5x adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA. We resumed share repurchases during the quarter and have already bought 448 million of stock as of July 29, in addition to paying our dividend in the second quarter at $0.30 per share.

第二季末，我們的槓桿率處於目標區間（調整後淨負債與調整後EBITDA比為3至3.5倍）的低端。本季我們恢復了股票回購，截至7月29日已回購4.48億股股票，此外，我們還在第二季派發了每股0.30美元的股利。

Our capital allocation strategy remains the same. We will make investments that enhance our growth and increase shareholder value while returning any excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend and share repurchases. We remain committed to our investment-grade rating.

我們的資本配置策略維持不變。我們將繼續進行能夠促進公司成長並提升股東價值的投資，同時透過適度派發現金股利和股票回購的方式將剩餘資本返還給股東。我們將繼續致力於維持投資等級信用評等。

Given our outlook for further global recovery and our powerful business model that is generating significant cash beyond our investment needs, we expect to return more than $2.2 billion to shareholders this year. This level of capital returns is included in the guidance we have provided today.

鑑於我們對全球經濟進一步復甦的預期，以及我們強大的商業模式能夠產生遠超投資需求的充裕現金流，我們預計今年將向股東返還超過22億美元。這項資本回報水準已包含在我們今天發布的業績指引中。

Looking ahead, I'm very optimistic about our future. Marriott is incredibly well positioned given the breadth and depth of our unparalleled global portfolio, our powerful Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program and the best team in the business. Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

展望未來，我對我們的未來充滿信心。憑藉我們無與倫比的全球酒店組合的廣度和深度、強大的萬豪旅享家忠誠計劃以及業內最優秀的團隊，萬豪集團擁有得天獨厚的優勢。現在，我和托尼很樂意回答各位的問題。接線生？

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America .

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利提出的問題。

I wanted to start off pretty much where you left off, Leeny, on the capital return program. I feel like once every 10 years or so, we get this quarter where everything kind of comes together on that. And obviously, it's a major increase from where we found ourselves just a quarter ago. Could you talk about the levers there? And then sort of where does this take you as it would relate to your longer-term goals around your leverage range? Does this keep you solidly in the middle of that? Do you -- or where would it put you relative to that kind of at the end of the year? And maybe give us a little teaser for what this could mean for 2023 as well.

我想接著你剛才說的資本回報計劃繼續聊，Leeny。我覺得大概每十年左右，我們就會迎來這樣一個季度，所有因素都匯聚在一起。顯然，這比我們上個季度的情況有了顯著提升。能談談其中的關鍵因素嗎？然後，就你的長期槓桿目標而言，這會把你引向何方？這是否能讓你穩居目標範圍內？或者說，到年底，你的目標會是什麼樣子？能否也給我們透露一下這對2023年又意味著什麼？

Shaun, I think you said it best in your question, that it really is back to where we were in terms of the way the model fundamentally works. As I said in my statement, we are at the low end of the 3 to 3.5x adjusted debt to EBITDA at the end of Q2, and we've given you a model that keeps us squarely and comfortably in that range. And we obviously want to keep our flexibility both in terms of investment opportunities as well as taking advantage of excess available cash. So I think you'll continue to see us move forward with the exact same approach that we have taken for some time.

肖恩，我覺得你在問題中說得最好，從根本上來說，我們的模式確實又回到了之前的狀態。正如我在聲明中所說，截至第二季末，我們的調整後債務與EBITDA比率處於3到3.5倍的低端，而且我們已經提供了一個模型，確保我們能夠穩穩地維持在這個範圍內。我們當然希望保持彈性，既能把握投資機會，又能充分利用剩餘現金。所以我認為，我們將繼續沿用之前一段時間以來採取的策略。

Great. And maybe just as a very quick follow-up, Tony, you have a lot of great color just kind of walking us through group, leisure and a little bit on the business transient side, particularly the day of the week commentary. Could you just talk specifically around leisure, there's a lot of fear out there around the ability to lap some of the incredible rate gains that have occurred? So just what are you seeing maybe across some of the resort properties or areas where you know that the recovery happened a little faster and consumer demand patterns have changed? Any signs of weakness or softness that would concern you at all at this stage? .

好的。東尼，我還有一個小問題想問。你剛才詳細介紹了團體、休閒和商務散客市場，特別是一周中不同日期的市場情況，講解得非常精彩。能具體談談休閒市場嗎？目前很多人都擔心能否抓住先前大幅上漲的房價。那麼，你觀察到一些度假村或其他復甦較快、消費者需求模式改變的地區的情況如何？在這個階段，是否有任何讓你擔憂的疲軟跡象？

Thanks, Shuan. The short answer is not really. The already robust leisure demand that we've seen in the last couple of quarters continue to improve. Leisure room nights were up 14% to 2019 in the quarter, and they were only up 11% in the first quarter. So we continue to see acceleration, and we continue to see more and more of this blended trip purpose. In my remarks, I talked a little bit about day-of-the-week patterns. And so I think that's quite encouraging to us as well. And then, finally, we've not talked a lot about international cross-border travel. While we're seeing improvement, we're not back to where we were pre pandemic, and we think that represents some upside on the leisure segment as well. .

謝謝，舒安。簡而言之，並非如此。過去幾個季度以來，我們已經看到的強勁休閒需求仍在持續成長。本季休閒客房入住夜數較2019年同期成長了14%，而第一季僅成長了11%。因此，我們看到成長動能持續增強，混合型旅行的需求也越來越多。我在發言中也稍微談到了星期幾的旅行模式。我認為這對我們來說也是一個相當令人鼓舞的消息。最後，我們還沒有過多談及國際跨境旅行。雖然我們看到情況有所改善，但尚未恢復到疫情前的水平，我們認為這也預示著休閒旅遊市場存在一定的成長空間。

And then the last thing I would say is all of those are comments about demand levels. We continue to see really encouraging pricing power on the leisure side as well. It's a little early to talk about the winter holidays. But as we look at Labor Day, for instance, we continue to see double-digit increases in ADR relative to where we were pre pandemic.

最後我想說的是，以上所有評論都與需求程度有關。休閒旅遊方面的定價能力依然非常強勁，令人鼓舞。現在談論冬季假期還為時過早。但以勞動節為例，我們看到平均房價（ADR）較疫情前水準持續維持兩位數成長。

Our next question comes from Joe Greff from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

Tony, I was hoping maybe you could give us a sense of corporate rate negotiations for 2023 corporate rates. I know the last couple of years, they've been sort of nonevents because corporate demand has been relatively low. How are you thinking of corporate pricing? And maybe how are those negotiations different now versus what they've been in the past?

東尼，我希望你能給我們介紹一下2023年企業費率談判的情況。我知道過去幾年，由於企業需求相對較低，談判進展緩慢。你對企業定價有什麼看法？與以往相比，現在的談判有何不同？

Of course. So as you know, for business transient, we rolled over special corporate rates since the beginning of the pandemic. We're just now starting the negotiation process for 2023. And so again, it's early, but we can certainly imagine those rates being up high single digits year-over-year in 2023.

當然。如您所知，自疫情爆發以來，我們一直延續著針對商務旅客的特惠企業價格。我們現在才剛開始2023年的價格談判。所以，現在下結論還為時過早，但我們完全可以預見，2023年這些價格的年漲幅將達到接近兩位數。

Great. And then, Tony, just switching topics, you mentioned about net rooms growth accelerating, and this is before the impact of Russia, which I'm looking at it as sort of a onetime thing. But when you look at 2023, 2024, 2025 net rooms growth and during some periods seeing it accelerate from where you are now, does that require more meaningful financial assistance for Marriott to third-party hotel owners? Or is that just a function of kind of getting through sort of a longer construction time table? .

好的。東尼，我們換個話題，你剛才提到淨客房成長加速，這還是在俄羅斯疫情影響之前，我個人認為這只是個一次性事件。但是，如果你展望2023年、2024年、2025年的淨客房增長，並且看到某些時期增速超過目前水平，這是否意味著萬豪需要向第三方酒店業主提供更多實質性的財政支持？還是說這只是因為建設週期延長了？

I think, much more the latter. Now I was quite thrilled with our conversion volume both on signings and openings in the second quarter. It is a competitive market for conversions. I'm quite pleased that we had more conversion openings than any of our peers in the quarter, and we'll continue to try to do smart conversions, which means we'll use the same capital discipline you've come to know us for even pre pandemic. I think to really see acceleration, and this is an industry comment as much as a Marriott comment, particularly in the U.S., you have seen a slowing in construction starts. Just over the last quarter, we have seen that start to tick up, although not to levels we saw in 2019. But I think we will do our best to continue to drive conversion volume and do everything we can to get shovels in the ground.

我認為後者更為重要。我對第二季的簽約量和開業量都非常滿意。改建市場競爭激烈。我很高興我們本季的改建開業量超過了所有同行，我們將繼續努力進行明智的改建，這意味著我們將秉持疫情前就已為人熟知的嚴格資本管理原則。我認為，要真正實現加速成長——這既是行業普遍現象，也是萬豪酒店集團的共識，尤其是在美國——建築開工量有所放緩。上個季度，我們看到開工量開始回升，但尚未達到2019年的水準。但我相信，我們將盡最大努力繼續推動改建量，並盡力盡快動工。

You may know that I had the privilege to spend a little time with the administration last week, and one of the things that we spoke to the administration about, was seeking assistance to resolve some of the supply chain issues that continue to slow some of the construction starts.

您可能知道，上週我有幸與政府部門進行了短暫的交流，我們與政府部門討論的內容之一是尋求幫助，以解決一些供應鏈問題，這些問題持續阻礙著一些建築項目的開工。

And Joe, just one follow-on. We talked about 2 record quarters of signings so far this year. And to your specific question, they did not involve a greater-than-usual element of capital from Marriott for those signings.

喬，還有一個後續問題。我們之前討論過今年迄今為止兩個季度的簽約量都創下了紀錄。至於你具體問到的問題，這些簽約並沒有涉及萬豪酒店集團投入的額外資金。

And then maybe just to put a fine point on your question, Joe, our confidence in our ability to get back to that mid-single-digit net unit growth, there's a couple of things in the release. The fact that we had quarter-over-quarter growth in the pipeline, the fact that we continue to have more than 200,000 rooms globally under construction and that we continue to see accelerated volume in both signings and openings on the conversion front combined to strengthen that confidence.

喬，或許我還要補充一點，關於我們能否重回個位數中段淨增長目標的信心，新聞稿中有幾點值得關注。首先，我們在建項目環比增長強勁；其次，我們全球仍有超過20萬間客房在建；最後，無論是簽約量還是改建項目開業量都在加速增長，這些因素共同增強了我們的信心。

Our next question comes from Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes。

Question for you on the back half guidance or implied back half guidance. Would you say that is higher, same -- higher or the same than your internal assumptions as of last May, last earnings?

關於下半年業績指引或隱含的下半年業績指引，我想問一個問題。您認為這個指引比您去年5月發布上一份財報時的內部預期更高、持平還是相同？

Yes, it is. There's no doubt that the recovery has accelerated faster than we had originally anticipated. And I think it's both in rate and occ in varying parts of the world. I think the cross-border has been obviously incredibly encouraging to see that topped Europe as an example, meaningfully faster than expected. But yes, I think it is stronger than our expectations both a quarter ago. And then frankly, a quarter ago was better than we expected a quarter before that.

是的，確實如此。毫無疑問，復甦的速度比我們最初預期的要快得多。而且我認為，無論從速度或規模來看，世界各地都在加速復甦。跨境經濟復甦尤其令人鼓舞，例如，其復甦速度明顯快於歐洲，遠超預期。是的，我認為目前的復甦勢頭比我們上個季度的預期都要強勁。坦白說，上個季度的復甦情況又比上季的預期好。

Okay. Great. Then a follow-up question. This goes back to the lingering one about what percentage of business travel may be permanently gone. And in my data research, for the higher-end customer, it looks like down 20% to 25%. But my question with that is how much do you think that higher-end customer has shifted to Thursday and Sunday nights. And how much has the smaller and medium-sized businesses offset that perhaps loss from the higher corporate customer?

好的，太好了。那我還有一個後續問題。這個問題一直縈繞在我心頭，那就是商務旅行究竟有多少比例可能永久消失了。根據我的數據研究，對於高端客戶而言，這個比例似乎下降了20%到25%。但我的問題是，您認為有多少高端客戶轉移到了周四和周日晚上？而中小企業在多大程度上彌補了高端企業客戶可能造成的損失？

Well, there's no question that the rapid improvement in occupancies in the shoulder days has been maybe a bit of a surprising but encouraging development. When we think about business transient demand, the small- and medium-sized businesses, they are back. They are back above 2019 levels of volume. As you point out, the bigger corporate customers, they are not quite back yet. But even there, we continue to see steady improvement, albeit not necessarily as rapid as we might like.

毫無疑問，淡季入住率的快速提升或許有些出人意料，但也令人鼓舞。就商務旅客的臨時需求而言，中小企業已經恢復了，而且入住率已經超過了2019年的水準。正如您所指出的，大型企業客戶的需求尚未完全恢復。但即便如此，我們也看到入住率持續穩定提升，儘管速度可能不如我們預期。

Our next question comes from Robin Farley from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

Great. Two questions. One is on group for 2023. Are you starting to see that? I think a quarter ago, it may have been down 10% or 15% below group in 2019 at the time for 2020. Just wondering if you're starting to see the group sort of stepping up a little bit more because it seems intuitive at some point that, that could actually be higher than '19. But wondering how that is shaping up right now.

好的。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於2023年的整體業績。您開始看到成長了嗎？我記得大約一個季度前，2020年的業績可能比2019年同期下降了10%到15%。我只是想知道您是否開始看到業績回升，因為直覺告訴我，2023年的業績最終可能會超過2019年。所以想了解目前的進展。

Sure. So maybe I can give you a couple of statistics, and Leeny may provide some color as well. When we look at bookings for '23 during 2022, we are down about 2% in revenue versus where we would have been for the bookings in 2019. But interestingly, ADR is up 16%. So we continue to see that strong pricing power. And we're even more optimistic, Robin, as you heard in our prepared remarks, because of the shorter booking window in group, even through the back half of this year and most certainly into '23, we expect those numbers to continue to improve as we see more and more short-term bookings.

當然。我可以提供你一些統計數據，Leeny 也可以補充一些細節。如果我們查看 2022 年 2023 年的預訂情況，營收會比 2019 年同期下降約 2%。但有趣的是，平均房價 (ADR) 卻上漲了 16%。因此，我們依然擁有強大的定價能力。 Robin，正如你在我們的演講稿中聽到的，由於團體預訂窗口期較短，我們更加樂觀。即使到了今年下半年，甚至到了 2023 年，我們預計隨著短期預訂的增多，這些數據仍將繼續改善。

So Robin, I'll add a couple of comments. I think the major theme we've got is in the quarter, for the quarter, in the year, for the year. In June, the benefit of that really got us to where group RevPAR was only down 1% in the month. So when we look at the rest of this year, from what's on the books currently, we are seeing low single digits for the rest of the year in terms of group revenue, while next year, we're still kind of in the 15% down, but I think you need to continue to think about this booking pattern, which is much closer to the actual event that has been filling in really nicely. So it's not that different for '23 versus a quarter ago except from what we're seeing in the quarter for the quarter, and even in the back half of '22, we're seeing some really great fill-in business that has got us pretty close to '19 levels where we could end up actually exceeding '19 levels in the back half of this year.

羅賓，我再補充幾點。我認為我們目前的主要趨勢是：從季度、季度整體、年度整體來看，六月份的業績確實受益匪淺，當月集團每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）僅下降了1%。展望今年剩餘時間，根據目前的預訂情況，我們預期集團收入的降幅將維持在個位數。而明年，我們預計仍將下降15%左右，但我認為你需要繼續關注這種預訂模式，它與實際活動更加接近，而且預訂情況也相當不錯。因此，除了季度業績之外，2023年的情況與上個季度並沒有太大區別。即使在2022年下半年，我們也看到了一些非常不錯的補房業務，使我們的業績非常接近2019年的水平，甚至有可能在今年下半年超過2019年的水平。

And that's exceeding in terms of rate, not necessarily group room nights but just in terms of total group revenues?

這裡的「超過」指的是房價超過預期，不一定是指團體客房晚數超過預期，而是指團體總收入超過預期？

Yes, that's total -- that is definitely total group revenue. Again, it's obviously where we are seeing it fill in. It's not just rate. It's also occ as we fill in the business. But you're right, the rate on group has been performing incredibly well.

是的，這是總額——這絕對是團體總收入。再次強調，很明顯，我們看到收入正在逐漸增加。這不僅是房價的問題，隨著業務的推進，入住率也得到了提升。但您說得對，團體房價的表現確實非常出色。

Okay. Great. And then just the other question was in terms of conversions, which seems to be doing really nicely, is this -- I guess, how long do you think will the sort of the tail of conversions that are a result of the pandemic and the downturn? From what you've seen historically, when there are downturns, kind of how much after? In other words, is it sort of a year of higher conversions, a year out or 2 years of higher? I guess, how should we think about what trajectory the conversion demand may follow.

好的，太好了。接下來想問的是轉換率方面，目前看來轉換率表現非常不錯。我想問的是，您認為疫情和經濟衰退帶來的轉換率成長會持續多久？根據您以往的經驗，經濟衰退之後，轉換率會持續高位多久？換句話說，會持續一年、一年還是兩年？我們該如何預測轉換率需求的未來走勢？

I continue to be quite bullish, Robin, on the trajectory of conversions for a few reasons. Number one, unlike some conventional downturns we've experienced in the past, where early in the downturn, you saw a lot of distress, the impact to our business was so severe that you saw the lenders being much more creative than accommodating with owners. So you didn't necessarily see a flood of distressed assets changing hands in the market. As demand and performance have recovered, there is the potential that there may be more assets in play, number one.

羅賓，我仍然非常看好資產轉換的前景，原因有幾個。首先，與我們過去經歷的一些傳統經濟衰退不同，在衰退初期，我們看到許多企業陷入困境，對我們業務的衝擊非常嚴重，以至於貸款方採取了比對業主更靈活的方式。因此，市面上並沒有出現大量不良資產易手的情況。隨著需求和績效的恢復，可能會有更多資產進入市場，這是第一點。

Number two, the portfolio of conversion-friendly brands we have, particularly our soft brands, Tribute, Autograph and Luxury Collection is more robust than we've ever armed our transactors in any other recessionary environment. And I combine those 2 factors, and it drives my bullishness about that trajectory.

第二，我們擁有的易於轉化的品牌組合，尤其是我們的軟性品牌，如 Tribute、Autograph 和 Luxury Collection，比我們以往在任何經濟衰退環境下為交易者提供的保障都更加強大。正是這兩個因素讓我對未來的發展前景充滿信心。

Our next question comes from Smedes Rose from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的斯梅德斯·羅斯。

I just wanted to ask you sort of conceptually, as the recovery kind of continues, which so far has been driven by such strong rate, which we've seen have great kind of flow-through to owners with lower occupancies, but as the world sort of continues to normalize, hopefully, next year, would you expect to see occupancies get back to prepandemic levels and potentially maybe a significant slowdown in rate in order to get there? Or do you think it's just sort of a structural change where owners are like we're going to charge higher rate, even if it means sacrificing occupancy to kind of simplify it?

我想從概念上問您一個問題：隨著經濟復甦的持續，目前為止，強勁的房價推動了復甦，我們看到房價上漲對入住率較低的業主產生了顯著的積極影響。但隨著世界逐漸恢復正常，希望明年就能實現，您認為入住率會恢復到疫情前的水準嗎？為了達到這個目標，房價上漲速度可能會大幅放緩嗎？或者您認為這只是一個結構性的變化，業主會選擇提高房價，即使這意味著犧牲入住率來簡化流程？

Well, as Leeny mentioned in response to an earlier question, we do believe the recovery will continue to be driven by both occupancy and rate. You also heard her refer a bit to some of the murkiness beyond the end of the year. But we do expect both occupancy and rate continue to improve through the end of '22. And we continue to be pleased with the pace of rate recovery through the first half of this year.

正如Leeny在回答先前的問題時所提到的，我們相信入住率和房價的回升將繼續推動復甦。您也聽到她提到了一些年底後的不確定性。但我們預計入住率和房價在2022年底前將持續改善。我們對今年上半年的房價回升速度感到滿意。

So one other comment, Smedes, and that is that -- to remember that we're comparing to '19. So that on inflation adjusted numbers, rate has not kept up with kind of real rates. So in that regard, I think while it's fabulous and we're thrilled to see the consumers love travel and don't want to put it off, the reality is that there is inflation and that we are pricing these rooms on a very frequent basis and that, on a real rate basis, they are not back to 2019 levels.

斯梅德斯，還有一點要補充──記住，我們是在和2019年比較。所以，即使經過通膨調整，房價也沒有跟上實際房價的漲幅。因此，雖然我們很高興看到消費者熱愛旅行，並且不願推遲出行，但現實情況是，通貨膨脹確實存在，而且我們經常需要調整房價，按實際房價計算，房價還沒有恢復到2019年的水平。

Our next question comes from David Katz from Jefferies. .

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·卡茨。

I wanted to -- I just wanted to drill down a little deeper on for corporate travel. If you could color us in just a little bit, there's so much data and useful out there about certain cities versus others, urban versus nonurban, corporate. Is there anything that you can share that you are picking up in your flow with respect to urban versus not in those various segments?

我想——我只是想更深入地了解一下商務差旅方面的情況。如果您能稍微介紹一下，那就太好了。現在有很多關於不同城市、城市和非城市、以及商務旅行的數據和資訊。您在日常工作中，針對這些不同細分市場，在城市和非城市方面，有什麼發現可以分享嗎？

Well, what I can tell you, some of this may be a little more anecdotal, but the early days of the recovery were clearly dominated by leisure destinations, trailed significantly by what we saw in the urban core. In many of the major urban markets across the country and across the world, we continue to see a reasonably steady and encouraging improvement in terms of both occupancy and rate. And we hear anecdotally from our corporate clients. We're seeing more and more return to the office, which is driving business demand.

我可以告訴您的是，雖然其中一些可能只是個例，但復甦初期顯然以休閒目的地為主，城市核心區域則明顯落後。在全國乃至全球許多主要城市市場，入住率和房價都持續穩定成長，令人鼓舞。我們也從企業客戶那裡了解到，越來越多的人正在返回辦公室，這推動了商務需求。

And when we look at some of the big major markets that I think are decent indicators for us, you look at New York, for instance, that had an 86% occupancy in the quarter. You look at San Francisco, 78%; Washington, D.C., 76%; Los Angeles, 80%. You are seeing steady volumes of demand recovering in many of those markets that were trailing the leisure destinations.

當我們觀察一些我認為可以作為良好指標的主要市場時，例如紐約，其季度入住率達到了86%。再看看舊金山，78%；華盛頓特區，76%；洛杉磯，80%。我們可以看到，在許多先前落後於休閒旅遊目的地的市場中，需求正在穩步復甦。

Understood. And just as a quick follow-up. Leeny, in your comments you made, I think, kind of a passing comment about labor. And if you could go just a little bit farther as to whether you are still seeing wages continue to increase, whether they're flat or taking some other direction and, within that, the international element within the United States and the degree to which that labor force is starting to return or whether it hasn't yet and what those outcomes might be would be helpful.

明白了。還有一個後續問題。 Leeny，你剛才好像只是簡單地提到了勞動市場。如果你能再詳細說說工資是否還在持續增長，還是停滯不前，或者出現了其他變化，以及美國國內的國際因素，比如勞動力市場是否已經開始復蘇，或者是否還沒有復蘇，以及這些因素可能帶來的結果，那就太好了。

Sure. Yes. We are seeing -- continuing to see hourly wages go up. And when I look at it compared to '19, the reality is, overall, and this comment is actually regarding U.S. and Canada, that it has kept up with inflation, if not just a teeny bit higher than that. It has slowed. The pace of increase has slowed. And one of the things that I think is interesting is to look at the positions that we're trying to fill if, for example, normal staffing levels were that we were trying to fill the final 95% to 100% of the positions we needed at the hotel level. Right now, we're at 93%.

當然。是的。我們看到——而且是持續看到——時薪上漲。與 2019 年相比，實際情況是，總體而言（這裡指的是美國和加拿大），時薪漲幅基本上與通貨膨脹持平，甚至可能略高於通貨膨脹率。不過，漲幅已經放緩。我認為有趣的一點是，我們可以看看我們正在努力填補的職缺。例如，如果正常情況下我們需要填補飯店所需職位的最後 95% 到 100%，那麼目前我們只完成了 93%。

So it's definitely improved. It is not back to where we were in '19 in terms of the labor shortage, but we're definitely seeing steady improvement, and the wage increases have slowed. Outside the U.S., it's much more varied. It really depends on the particular market. And I would say Europe probably has seen some more similarities to the U.S., while in Asia Pacific, for example, there's really been far less of the kind of pressures that we've seen in the U.S.

所以情況一定有改善。雖然勞動力短缺問題還沒有恢復到2019年的水平，但我們確實看到情況在穩步改善，薪資成長速度也放緩了。美國以外地區的情況則更加多樣化，這很大程度上取決於具體的市場。我認為歐洲的情況可能與美國更相似，而例如亞太地區，我們在美國所看到的這種壓力要小得多。

Our next question comes from Brandt Montour from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾。

Curious if you could unpack leisure demand a little bit more, and maybe let us know if you are seeing greater dispersion and pricing elasticities between your luxury end and your more middle brands.

很想請您更詳細地分析一下休閒需求，也想請您告知我們，您是否發現您的高端品牌和中階品牌之間存在更大的差異和價格彈性。

So a couple of things. One of the easiest ways to think about luxury is that rate has continued to stay very strong. But what we've also seen is that the markets that were previously weaker, like a New York or San Francisco, the luxury hotels in those markets are now filling in. They, on average, are not necessarily quite as high as in some of the resort markets. So it actually makes it look, on a blended basis, like the gains in ADR and luxury are not as strong, while the reality is just the opposite, that they continue to be quite strong. .

所以有幾點要說明。理解奢華酒店最簡單的方法之一就是看房價是否一直保持強勁。但我們也看到，之前較為疲軟的市場，例如紐約或舊金山，這些市場的豪華飯店現在正在填補空缺。它們的平均房價未必像一些度假勝地那麼高。因此，從綜合來看，平均房價和奢華飯店的成長似乎不那麼強勁，而實際情況恰恰相反，它們仍然非常強勁。

I think one of the most encouraging things to see is that the overall luxury portfolio is continuing to gain in both occ and rate. And then as Tony was talking about earlier, I think it's also particularly encouraging to see the premium market, the Marriotts, the Sheratons, the Renaissances in kind of all markets really recovering now more in the second quarter meaningfully than they were in the first quarter.

我認為最令人鼓舞的是，整體豪華飯店組合的入住率和房價都持續成長。正如托尼之前提到的，我也非常欣喜地看到，高端市場，包括萬豪、喜來登、萬麗等酒店，以及其他所有市場，在第二季度都比第一季有了顯著的復甦。

So we really don't expect that we are depending on continued additional ADR gains in luxury through the rest of this year, but we do continue to see really strong demand. So I think it is tide-floats-all-boats view of what we're seeing, which is demand across all segments continuing to strengthen.

因此，我們並不指望今年剩餘時間豪華飯店的平均房價會持續上漲，但我們確實看到需求依然強勁。所以我認為，我們目前看到的是一種整體趨勢，即所有細分市場的需求都在持續增強。

And I think just to give some context to that, we still saw in the second quarter in the U.S. and Canada, luxury rate up 23% in the quarter versus '19. So lots of questions around how much runway we have for luxury but another really solid quarter in terms of the luxury pricing.

為了更好地理解這一點，我想指出，我們在第二季度仍然看到，美國和加拿大的奢侈品價格比 2019 年同期上漲了 23%。因此，關於奢侈品市場還有多少成長空間，有很多疑問，但就奢侈品定價而言，這又是一個非常穩健的季度。

That's helpful. And then just a follow-up on business travel. When you think about your large portfolio of corporate accounts, I was just curious if you could give us a sense of how much of your demand mix is earlier stage companies within technology, biotechnology and other slices of the corporate world that could potentially be reining in expenses faster than average.

這很有幫助。接下來我想問關於商務旅行的問題。考慮到您龐大的企業客戶群，我很好奇您能否介紹一下，在您的需求構成中，有多少是處於早期階段的科技、生物技術以及其他一些企業，這些企業可能比平均水平更快地控制支出。

Yes. So maybe I'll try. SMEs represent now about 60% to 65% of our business transient demand, which is a bit higher than what we experienced pre pandemic. The bigger corporate clients continue to steadily improve. And over time, we expect to get maybe not all the way back but closer to where we were in terms of the mix of SMEs versus large corporate clients. But right now, it's in the 60% to 65% range that is the category I think you're talking about.

是的，那我試試看。目前中小企業約占我們臨時業務需求的60%到65%，比疫情前略高。大型企業客戶的需求也穩定改善。隨著時間的推移，我們預期中小企業與大型企業客戶的比例或許無法完全恢復到疫情前的水平，但會更接近疫情前的水平。就目前而言，60%到65%的比例應該是您所說的那個區間。

Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Michael Bellisario。

First, just a quick modeling question. I think you've given the sensitivity of $25 million to $30 million of fee revenue for 1 point change in RevPAR. What is that updated range? And then how might that ratio change looking out to 2023 in a more normalized growth environment?

首先，我有一個關於建模的簡單問題。我記得您之前給的RevPAR每變動1個百分點，手續費收入的敏感度是2500萬美元到3000萬美元。現在這個範圍更新後是多少？然後，在成長環境更正常化的情況下，展望2023年，這個比例又會如何改變？

Yes. Sure. Comparing to '21, it's $25 million to $30 million per point of RevPAR in '22 versus '21. We're not in a position yet to talk about '23, all of that budgeting work. But I would expect it to continue to be somewhat similar. It varies, as you know, depending on what part of the world the improvements happen. It's obviously more per point of RevPAR compared to '19. You get into the weeds on differences in comp sets, et cetera. But it is probably closer to $40 million per point if you're comparing a point of RevPAR in '22 to 1 point of RevPAR in '19.

是的，當然。與 2021 年相比，2022 年每點 RevPAR 的成本約為 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元。我們目前還無法討論 2023 年的情況，因為預算工作還在進行中。但我預計情況會大致相同。如您所知，具體情況會因改善措施實施的地區而異。顯然，與 2019 年相比，每點 RevPAR 的成本更高。具體細節取決於競爭因素等等。但如果您比較 2022 年和 2019 年每點 RevPAR，那麼每點的成本可能接近 4000 萬美元。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one follow-up on group. Can you maybe provide some details on what group planners are asking for differently today and then maybe how booking patterns are either the same or different today versus pre pandemic?

明白了，這很有幫助。關於團體出行，我還有一個後續問題。您能否詳細說明一下，如今團體旅遊策劃者有哪些不同的需求？以及，與疫情前相比，如今的預訂模式有哪些相同或不同之處？

Sure. Again, this will maybe be a bit anecdotal. We just held an event called The Exchange, which was where we hosted about 500 corporate and association meeting planners. In general sessions and in some smaller executive forums, we had a chance to talk to them and essentially ask the question you just asked. And I would say the 2 themes I heard most notably -- number one, they gave us high marks for our flexibility on issues like attrition during the pandemic. And I think they are hopeful we would continue to show that level of flexibility into perpetuity, which, as demand improves, we are tightening up a bit. And they understand that intellectually. They're just wishing for the good old days where they had maximum flexibility.

當然。不過，這可能只是個例。我們剛舉辦了一場名為「交流會」的活動，約有500位企業和協會的會議策劃人員參加。在全體會議和一些小型的高階主管論壇上，我們有機會與他們交流，並問了您剛才提出的問題。我聽到的兩個最突出的主題是：第一，他們對我們在疫情期間人員流失等問題上的靈活性給予了高度評價。我認為他們希望我們能夠一直保持這種靈活性，但隨著需求的改善，我們正在逐步收緊政策。他們也理解這一點，只是懷念過去那種擁有最大彈性的日子。

The other theme we heard loud and clear is an increasing focus on the company's efforts around all things ESG and an increasing number of our -- both corporate and association booking contracts. They are asking for not only our publicly stated goals but for reports on our progress against those goals.

我們也清楚地聽到另一個主題，那就是客戶越來越關注公司在環境、社會和治理（ESG）方面的努力，以及我們越來越多的企業和協會預訂合約。他們不僅要求我們提供公開的目標，還要求我們提供實現這些目標的進度報告。

And just one other interesting stat that I think is helpful is that length of stay for -- up almost 25% compared to 2019, as is the average size for new bookings. So again, I think this all continues to emphasize that associations, companies, organizations are wanting to get their people together.

還有一個我認為很有參考價值的有趣數​​據：平均入住時長比 2019 年增長了近 25%，新預訂的平均規模也是如此。所以，我認為這一切都再次表明，協會、公司和組織都希望將他們的成員聚集在一起。

And then one fine point that I forgot about from some of the conversations at The Exchange, they asked us from a technology perspective to do everything we can to make it easier for them to tack on a couple of leisure days to their reservation pre or post meeting, which was just another confirmation that this idea of blended trip purpose will likely endure well beyond the end of the pandemic.

然後，我在 The Exchange 的一些談話中忘記提及一個細節，他們從技術角度要求我們盡一切可能讓他們更容易在會議前後增加幾天休閒時間，這再次證實了這種混合旅行目的的想法可能會在疫情結束後繼續存在。

Our next question comes from Richard Clarke from Bernstein. .

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的理查德·克拉克。

Just the first one on China. To what extent is China a normal environment now for signings but not a normal environment for construction? So how much of that is the bridge back to your mid-single digit unit growth you're expecting to get back to?

這是關於中國的第一個問題。目前中國在多大程度上已經恢復到正常的簽約環境，但在建設方面卻並非如此？那麼，這其中有多少因素能夠幫助您恢復到預期的個位數中段的單位成長率？

There's a couple of questions embedded there. I think our deal volume and our openings are off peak, but they are steadily recovering. The vast majority of our operating hotels and the vast majority of the projects in our pipeline are domestically owned. And so those domestic entities continue to benefit from the central government encouraging domestic travel across China. And many of those hotels are benefiting from increased volumes of domestic travel, albeit some pauses when certain markets go into lockdown. And so our expectation is a steady improvement, but we have not embedded in our guidance any sort of wholesale lifting of zero COVID policy that we've seen over the last couple of quarters.

這裡麵包含幾個問題。我認為我們的交易量和新開業數量目前處於低谷，但正在穩步復甦。我們經營的酒店以及在建項目中的絕大多數都是國內企業。因此，這些國內企業繼續受惠於中央政府鼓勵國內旅遊的政策。許多飯店也受益於國內旅遊量的成長，儘管在某些市場實施封鎖時會出現一些停滯。因此，我們預計情況將穩定改善，但我們並未在業績指引中考慮全面取消過去幾季以來實施的零新冠疫情政策。

Okay. Maybe just a quick follow-up, if I may. I noticed your kind of capital returns guidance says that depends on whether you do any disposals this year. I mean is that likely, are you looking at the owned portfolio again? Are there any potential disposals to come?

好的。如果可以的話，我想再問一個後續問題。我注意到你們的資本回報預期中提到，這取決於你們今年是否會進行任何資產處置。我的意思是，這種情況發生的可能性很高嗎？你們是否會重新檢視自有資產組合？未來是否有任何潛在的資產處置計劃？

We're always looking, but the numbers that I gave do not assume any additional asset sales this year.

我們一直在尋找機會，但我給出的數字並不包括今年的任何額外資產出售。

The next question comes from Vince Ciepiel from Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的文斯·西皮爾。

Really encouraging to see margins ahead, IMFs ahead. It sounds like cost reduction efforts are certainly helping to offset the labor wage pressure. But as you dig into that, I'd be curious how you're thinking about the customer experience from the average Bonvoy guest. I know there's been some surveys out which can be lagging, talking about how the consumer feels about scaled-back breakfast offerings, changes in housekeeping. So as you look at things more recently, how do you think the guest is feeling today versus summer of 2019?

看到利潤率和IMF（國際貨幣基金組織）的預期都不錯，這確實令人鼓舞。看來成本削減措施確實有助於緩解勞動成本壓力。但深入分析後，我很想知道您如何看待萬豪旅享家普通客人的客戶體驗。我知道之前有一些調查，但可能存在滯後性，調查內容涉及消費者對縮減的早餐供應和客房清潔服務變化的感受。所以，從近期情況來看，您認為客人現在的感受與2019年夏天有何不同？

I would say it's very much a work in progress, but we are really encouraged by the metrics that we monitor through guest satisfaction surveys and particularly the intent-to-return numbers. We're not quite back to where we were pre pandemic, but we have made meaningful and steady progress on those metrics.

我認為這項工作仍在進行中，但我們對透過顧客滿意度調查監測到的各項指標，尤其是顧客的再次光顧意願，感到非常鼓舞。我們還沒有完全恢復到疫情前的水平，但我們在這些指標上已經取得了顯著而穩定的進展。

As you may recall from some prior earnings calls, in the depths of the pandemic, we suspended some of those quality metrics. Those are all back in place now, brand, standard, audits, guest surveys. And the teams -- we just went through our quarterly business reviews. All of our teams around the world are keenly focused on driving intent to return. And we're pretty encouraged. And I think it's reflected in the manner in which our most loyal Bonvoy customers continue to engage. Our top tier within Bonvoy, the ambassador tier, has remained very active. 96% of our ambassadors had at least one stay or points transaction in '21, they averaged about 100 nights, and we see those metrics improving as well. We have rolled out our new housekeeping protocols, and the early returns from our guests is they like the certainty that, that offers.

您可能還記得，在先前的財報電話會議上，疫情最嚴重的時候，我們暫停了一些品質指標的評估。現在這些指標都已恢復，包括品牌、標準、審核和賓客調查。團隊方面—我們剛完成了季度業務回顧。我們全球所有團隊都高度重視提升賓客的回歸意願。我們對此感到非常鼓舞。我認為這體現在我們最忠實的萬豪旅享家客戶的持續參與度上。萬豪旅享家最高級的會員——大使會員——一直保持著非常活躍的狀態。 96%的大使會員在2021年至少有過一次入住或積分交易，平均入住晚數約為100晚，而且我們看到這些指標也不斷提升。我們已經推出了新的客房清潔流程，賓客的初步回饋是他們喜歡這些流程帶來的確定性。

And then, separately, on distribution, encouraging to see loyalty contribution exceed '19 levels, digital bookings hitting all-time high. Curious how you're thinking about kind of the next 12 months, that ideal distribution mix between corporate, group and leisure as some of those buckets are starting to recover more fully. I mean consider ADR differentials between those 3 and then maybe day of week occupancy needs, how are you planning the business over the next 12 months? And maybe within that, how are you thinking about OTA as a percentage of the mix going forward?

此外，在分銷方面，令人欣喜的是，忠誠度貢獻超過了2019年的水平，數位預訂量也創下歷史新高。我很想知道您是如何看待未來12個月的，您認為企業、團體和休閒旅遊這三大類客戶的理想分銷組合是什麼，因為其中一些客戶群正在逐步復甦。我的意思是，請考慮這三類客戶的平均房價差異，以及一周中不同日期的入住率需求，您是如何規劃未來12個月的業務的？另外，您認為OTA（線上旅行社）在未來的分銷組合中將佔多大比例？

So maybe I'll go in reverse order, pre pandemic, looking at a year like '19, we have seen steady reduction in the percentage of total room nights that came out of the OTAs, during the first 2 years with pandemic, as you might expect, we saw OTA volume rise, but direct bookings rose more rapidly. And I think it's reasonable to expect in the coming quarters that we would start to get back to the trend line we saw prepandemic of the total volume of OTA contribution moderating.

所以，我或許應該反過來說。疫情前，以2019年為例，我們看到OTA（線上旅行社）貢獻的客房夜數佔總客房夜數的比例穩定下降。疫情爆發後的頭兩年，正如你所預料的，OTA的預訂量有所上升，但直接預訂的增長速度更快。我認為，在接下來的幾個季度裡，OTA貢獻的總量將逐漸恢復到疫情前的趨勢線，也就是趨於穩定。

I think your first question was really more around mix by segment. Back in '19 in round numbers, about 40% of our business was leisure. 37% was business transient. 20% was group and 4% was contract. In the second quarter, business transient had risen to about 32%. Leisure transient was 43%. Group was 21%, and contract was pretty steady at 4%.

我認為你的第一個問題其實更著重於各細分市場的組成。 2019 年，粗略估計，我們大約 40% 的業務是休閒旅遊，37% 是商務散客，20% 是團體旅遊，4% 是合約旅遊。第二季度，商務散客佔比上升至約 32%，休閒散客佔 43%，團體旅遊佔 21%，合約旅遊則維持穩定在 4%。

But remember, the leisure segment was already our most rapidly growing segment even in 2019 before the pandemic hit. And we continue to see -- expect to see leisure to grow rapidly. And as I've said in some previous calls, this blending of trip purpose may make it that much tougher for us to tell you with absolute precision what that mix looks like.

但請記住，即使在疫情爆發前的2019年，休閒旅遊市場已經是我們成長最快的市場。而且我們預計休閒旅遊市場將持續保持快速成長。正如我在之前的幾次電話會議中提到的，出行目的的融合可能會讓我們更難準確地告訴您具體的市場組成。

And I think to your question about revenue management strategy, as we think about going forward, it has been very encouraging to see the strength of group and the strength of group rate. So as we think about all the possible outcomes for the economy over the next couple of years, that strength in group is quite encouraging. And then obviously, on the transient side, the booking window there is about 3 weeks. So that tends to -- which is, frankly, back to about where it was in '19, and that will vary with customers' needs and wants as we see things unfold.

關於您提出的收益管理策略問題，展望未來，我們欣喜地看到團體預訂和團體價格的強勁表現。考慮到未來幾年經濟情勢的各種可能走向，團體預訂的強勁勢頭無疑令人鼓舞。當然，散客預訂方面，預訂窗口期約為三週。坦白說，這已經回落到2019年的水平，但隨著情勢的發展，客戶的需求和意願也會隨之改變。

Our next question comes from Will Crow -- sorry, Dori Kesten from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自威爾·克勞——抱歉，是來自富國銀行的朵莉·凱斯滕。

Are you -- can you provide more details on cross-border travel regionally, who's leading and lagging outside of Asia Pacific as compared to '19? And then just any changes you've noted in spend?

您能否提供更多關於區域跨境旅行的詳細信息，例如與2019年相比，亞太地區以外的哪些地區領先，哪些地區落後？另外，您注意到消費方面有哪些改變嗎？

Sure. So let's talk super high level at first, which is that if pre pandemic, we were in the, call it, 18% to 19% sort of cross-border travel around the world that, that number fell and was down in the -- a little bit north of 10% and then has clearly moved back up several hundred basis points, particularly as we got into Q2. But we are not back to the same level of cross-border travel. Obviously, particularly with Asia Pacific and Greater China still being very much domestic travel based.

當然。我們先從宏觀層面談起。疫情前，全球跨國旅行佔比大約在18%到19%之間。疫情期間，這個數字下降到略高於10%，之後明顯回升了幾百個基點，尤其是在第二季。但跨境旅行尚未恢復疫情前的水準。顯然，亞太地區和大中華區仍以國內旅行為主。

The thing I did find interesting in Q2 in the U.S. was that we were pretty close to being back to the number of international -- the percentage of international nights. We were pre pandemic at 5%. And in Q2, we were at 4% coming from cross-border travel. I think the biggest shift that you saw was obviously partly a function of opening kind of more comfort travel and then the strong dollar. And that had a massive impact on Europe in the summer, and you saw a very large influx of U.S. travelers coming into Europe, which helped their RevPAR tremendously.

我發現美國第二季最有趣的一點是，國際旅行的數量——也就是國際旅行夜數佔比——已經非常接近疫情前的水平。疫情前，這一比例為5%。而第二季度，跨國旅行佔比達到了4%。我認為最大的變化顯然部分歸功於旅行方式的逐步開放以及美元走強。這在夏季對歐洲產生了巨大影響，大量美國遊客湧入歐洲，大大提升了歐洲酒店的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）。

And I might just add on that, Dori, it was just towards the tail end of the quarter where you saw the U.S. government rolled back the inbound international testing requirement, and we think that's going to be another accelerant for cross-border travel. In fact, right after that policy change was announced, the USTA came out and estimated that they thought that would drive 5.4 million incremental visitors to the U.S. in the back half of the year. with about $9 billion of spend.

我還要補充一點，多莉，就在本季度末，美國政府取消了入境國際旅客的檢測要求，我們認為這將進一步加速跨境旅行。事實上，這項政策調整宣布後不久，美國網球協會就發布報告估計，這將為美國下半年帶來540萬新增遊客，消費約90億美元。

Our next question comes from Will Crow from Raymond James. .

下一個問題來自Raymond James公司的Will Crow。

You talked about the murkiness beyond the end of the year, but I'm just curious, how much visibility do you actually have on the Labor Day?

你談到了年底後的不確定性，但我很好奇，勞動節當天的天氣狀況究竟有多好？

Well, again, as we talked about before, you've got the short booking window on transient, but you've also got holiday bookings. When you look at December, when you look at Thanksgiving, Columbus Day as well as Labor Day. And I think across all of those, we continue to be reminded that people are not willing to give up travel and that you're seeing it in the strong rate and strong early bookings for those periods. And they are obviously overwhelmingly leisure bookings and group also continuing to fill in very nicely.

正如我們之前討論過的，短期旅行的預訂窗口期很短，但假日預訂也很火爆。例如12月、感恩節、哥倫布日以及勞動節。我認為，在所有這些假日期間，我們都能看到人們不願意放棄旅行的跡象，這一點從這些時段強勁的房價和早期預訂量就能看出。而且，這些預訂顯然絕大多數是休閒旅行，團體預訂也持續火熱。

So I think we -- when we look at what's on the books, as we move into either even September and October, while you're right that the percentage that is on the books is still relatively low on the transient side the pace of those bookings is very encouraging.

所以我覺得，當我們看看目前的預訂情況，即使到了九月和十月，雖然你說得對，目前臨時住宿的預訂比例仍然相對較低，但這些預訂的速度非常令人鼓舞。

If I could follow up on that on the holiday bookings. It's interesting, Wyndham talked about Florida RevPAR being down double digit compared to 2021 in July. And I'm curious if we were to look at it on a 1-year basis instead of going back to 2019 what your thoughts are on, at holiday buckets?

我想就假日預約方面再補充一點。很有意思，溫德姆酒店集團在7月提到，佛羅裡達州的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）與2021年相比下降了兩位數。我很好奇，如果我們以一年為週期來分析，而不是追溯到2019年，您對假期預訂市場有什麼看法？

I'd have to -- I can get Jackie and Betsy to get back to you on the specifics for December '22 versus December 21. I think, again, the overall comment that I'll make is that we continue to see really strong bookings for the end of the year. One of the things that I talked about in luxury is the reality that as you see some of the other luxury markets start to fill in that aren't necessarily as high ADR as some of the resorts that starts to muddy the waters a little bit, but that's a good issue.

我得——我得請Jackie和Betsy回覆你2022年12月和2021年12月的具體情況。我想，總的來說，我還是要說，我們年底的預訂情況依然非常強勁。我之前在談到高端市場時提到過，隨著其他一些高端市場的預訂逐漸增多，而這些市場的平均房價（ADR）未必像某些度假村那麼高，這確實讓情況變得有些複雜，但這其實是件好事。

Remember that right now, the percentage that is on our books for that period is probably under 5%. So it's really quite small and making big sweeping statements with that small amount on the books probably doesn't make sense. But when we think about the pace for the holiday periods, we continue to be really encouraged.

請記住，目前我們帳面上該時期的訂單比例可能不到5%。所以這個數字非常小，基於如此小的帳面金額就做出如此大的預測可能並不明智。但考慮到假日期間的銷售速度，我們仍然感到非常鼓舞。

That's perfect. If I could just ask one quick question on the development signings, any change in the composition of the signings, say, from full service to select service given construction cost and financing environment?

太好了。關於開發案的簽約，我可以問一個簡短的問題嗎？考慮到建造成本和融資環境，簽約專案的組成是否有所變化，例如從全包式服務轉向部分服務？

On the signing side, we've seen a bit of a slowing in select service here in the U.S., but some of that may be because of the high volume of conversions are disproportionately full service. What I can tell you is in terms of monthly approval volumes coming out of our development committees, we are seeing exactly what we would have expected, which is our large multi-unit long-term developers and owners of select-service hotels gearing their development organizations back up, and that's driving the sort of approval volume we've seen through the first half of the year.

在簽約方面，我們看到美國精選服務型酒店的交易速度有所放緩，但部分原因可能是大量改建項目都集中在全服務型酒店。我可以告訴大家的是，就我們開發委員會每月批准的項目數量而言，情況完全符合預期，即我們的大型多單元長期開發商和精選服務型酒店業主正在重新調整其開發團隊，這推動了我們在今年上半年看到的審批量。

And our last question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

最後一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

And most have been asked. But just on group recovery, can you contrast the type of group events that happen in a month like June with group events that happen in a month like September? In a sense, business was competing with leisure this summer. And I think you threw out the June down 2 on group relative to '19. Would you expect that down 2 to kind of maintain? Or would you expect that gap to hold or narrow as we get to a more business-dependent period like September?

大部分問題都已經被問過了。但就團體活動恢復而言，您能否對比一下六月和九月這類月份的團體活動類型？從某種意義上說，今年夏天商業活動與休閒活動之間存在著競爭。我記得您曾提到六月群體活動比2019年同期下降了2%。您認為這2%的降幅會持續嗎？還是隨著我們進入像九月這樣更依賴商業活動的時期，您認為這個差距會保持不變或縮小？

So I'll just give you one comment. I think the shift won't be a massive shift. I think there's still going to be a lot of social group events going into the fall as well. When we look at what's on the books, it was only down 1% right now from Q3. And here we are barely into Q3. So I think we -- as we said before, we've got the possibility that actually group ends up higher than 2019 relative to Q2 when it was still down a little bit.

所以我只想補充一點。我認為這種轉變不會太大。我認為秋季仍然會有很多社交團體活動。從目前的活動安排來看，只比第三季下降了1%。而現在才剛進入第三季。所以我認為——正如我們之前所說，我們有可能最終的團體活動數量會高於2019年第二季度，儘管當時第二季度也略有下降。

So we are seeing great demand on the part of corporate customers for getting their people together. And I think you're going to continue to see the social events as well. So I wouldn't necessarily note a huge swing based on your comment that it is more a business-oriented quarter. The only other thing I will point out is that August is typically a seasonally quieter months for us in group just because of the realities of family vacations and people not being in school. So I think August, you should expect what we've always seen, which is a relatively seasonally more light period on the group side.

所以我們看到企業客戶對組織員工聚會的需求非常旺盛。而且我認為社交活動也會持續增加。因此，我並不認為您所說的「本季更偏向商務活動」會帶來巨大的波動。我唯一要指出的是，由於家庭度假和學生假期等因素，八月通常是我們團體業務的淡季。所以我認為，八月的情況應該和以往一樣，團體業務會相對清淡一些。

And that is all the questions we have. I will now turn the conference back over to our speakers. .

這就是我們所有的問題了。現在我將把會議交還給各位演講嘉賓。

Well, thank you all for joining us. It's a compelling and exciting story about the resiliency of travel and the resilience of Marriott's business model. We look forward to seeing you all on the road soon, and thanks again for your interest.

感謝各位的參與。這是一個引人入勝、令人興奮的故事，講述了旅遊業的韌性以及萬豪酒店集團商業模式的韌性。我們期待很快能在旅途中與大家再次相聚，再次感謝大家的關注。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time. Have a great day.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。祝您有美好的一天。