萬豪國際集團是一家全球酒店公司,在 130 個國家和地區擁有 7,000 多家酒店。公司總部位於美國馬里蘭州貝塞斯達。萬豪酒店由 J. Willard Marriott 和 John Cook 於 1927 年創立。
萬豪國際集團預計 2023 年將是強勁的一年,歐洲是一個特別強勁的市場。該公司專注於擴大其產品組合併改善其運營。萬豪正在研究他們的運營以及如何提高效率,客房服務是他們關注的領域之一。 ESG 是萬豪在做出業務決策時的重要考慮因素,該公司致力於減少其環境足跡、促進多元化和包容性,並投資於其員工和社區。萬豪制定了雄心勃勃的目標,以減少碳排放、用水量和廢物,並增加可再生能源的使用。萬豪國際集團是一家全球酒店管理公司,經營、特許經營和許可範圍廣泛的酒店及相關住宿設施。該公司在 130 個國家和地區擁有 7,000 多家酒店,包括 30 多個品牌。萬豪酒店是為商務和休閒旅客提供住宿設施的領先供應商。
該公司近年來增長強勁,去年全球卡會員收購和卡消費創歷史新高。萬豪預計在未來幾年內將對其數字平台進行更多改進。 2022 年,該公司的移動應用用戶同比增長 32%,數字間夜數增長 27%,數字收入增長 41%。
新項目和酒店銷售的融資環境仍然充滿挑戰,尤其是在美國,因為利率較高且潛在經濟衰退存在不確定性。然而,供應鏈中斷、建築成本和勞動力供應等其他行業不利因素有所改善。鑑於強勁的本地運營趨勢,2022 年整體開發商情緒有所改善,萬豪又迎來了強勁的簽約活動。該公司的全球開發團隊去年簽署了近 108,000 間客房的特許經營和管理協議。
此外,在預計交易完成後,City Express 投資組合將在價格適中的中檔空間中增加約 17,000 間客房。萬豪很高興有機會在加勒比海和拉丁美洲或 CALA 地區以及世界其他地區擴展這一領域。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Q4 2022 earnings. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)
大家好,歡迎來到今天的 2022 年第四季度財報。 (操作員說明)請注意,此通話可能會被錄音。 (操作員說明)
It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Ms. Jackie Burka.
現在我很高興將會議轉交給 Jackie Burka 女士。
Jackie Burka McConagha - SVP of IR
Jackie Burka McConagha - SVP of IR
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Business Operations; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.
謝謝。各位早上好,歡迎來到萬豪 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天與我通電話的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Tony Capuano; Leeny Oberg,我們的首席財務官兼業務運營執行副總裁;和我們的投資者關係副總裁 Betsy Dahm。
I will remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.
我會提醒大家,我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實,根據聯邦證券法被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的眾多風險和不確定性的影響,這可能導致未來的結果與我們的評論中表達或暗示的結果存在重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的評論和新聞稿中的聲明僅在今天有效,不會隨著實際事件的展開而更新。
Please also note that, unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy and average daily rate comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and include hotels temporarily closed due to COVID-19. RevPAR occupancy and ADR comparisons between 2022 and 2019 reflect properties that are defined as comparable as of December 31, 2022, even if they were not open and operating for the full year 2019 or they did not meet all the other criteria for comparable in 2019.
另請注意,除非另有說明,否則我們的 RevPAR 入住率和平均每日房價評論反映了可比酒店的全系統恆定貨幣結果,包括因 COVID-19 而暫時關閉的酒店。 2022 年和 2019 年之間的 RevPAR 入住率和 ADR 比較反映了截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日被定義為可比的物業,即使它們在 2019 年全年未開放和運營,或者它們不符合 2019 年可比的所有其他標準。
Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons to pre-pandemic for 2019 are comparing the same time period in each year. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.
此外,除非另有說明,否則所有與 2019 年大流行前的比較都是比較每年的同一時間段。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們今天的評論中提到的所有非 GAAP 財務措施的收益發布和對賬。
And now I will turn the call over to Tony.
現在我將把電話轉給托尼。
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Thanks, Jackie. Good morning, everyone. 2022 was a very strong year for Marriott. After achieving global RevPAR recovery in June, we finished the year on a real high note, with RevPAR versus 2019 up 7% in December and up 5% in the fourth quarter.
謝謝,傑基。大家,早安。 2022 年對萬豪來說是非常強勁的一年。在 6 月實現全球 RevPAR 復甦後,我們以真正的高調結束了這一年,12 月的 RevPAR 與 2019 年相比增長了 7%,第四季度增長了 5%。
Each quarter saw sequential improvement in global occupancy and ADR compared to 2019. We ended the year with fourth quarter occupancy down just 5 percentage points and ADR up 13%. With Asia Pacific, excluding China, or APEX surpassing pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter, all regions, except Greater China, have now more than fully recovered.
與 2019 年相比,每個季度的全球入住率和 ADR 都出現了環比改善。截至今年第四季度,我們的入住率僅下降了 5 個百分點,ADR 上升了 13%。隨著亞太地區(不包括中國)或 APEX 在第四季度超過大流行前的水平,除大中華區外,所有地區現已完全恢復。
It is abundantly clear that people love to travel. Globally, leisure demand has remained robust. In the fourth quarter, leisure transient room nights increased 7% versus 2019. And we continued driving leisure ADR, which rose 22%. Our group business experienced the most meaningful improvement in 2022.
很明顯,人們喜歡旅行。在全球範圍內,休閒需求依然強勁。與 2019 年相比,第四季度休閒短暫間夜增加了 7%。我們繼續推動休閒 ADR,上升了 22%。我們的集團業務在 2022 年經歷了最有意義的改善。
In the U.S. and Canada, fourth quarter group revenues increased 10% above the same quarter in 2019. Group revenue for 2023 is already pacing up 20% year-over-year, with room nights and rate gains each quarter. Given strong lead generation and increased rate quotes, especially for in-the-year, for-the-year bookings, we expect group revenues this year to strengthen further.
在美國和加拿大,第四季度集團收入比 2019 年同期增長 10%。2023 年集團收入已經同比增長 20%,每個季度的間夜數和房價都有所增長。鑑於強勁的潛在客戶生成和更高的報價,尤其是年內預訂,我們預計今年的集團收入將進一步增加。
In 2022, around half of group room nights were booked in the year compared to just 1/3 in 2019. U.S. and Canada business transient demand remained steady from the third to the fourth quarter at around 90% recovery. For 2023, we are pleased to have negotiated special corporate rent growth in the high single digits after holding these rates steady the last 2 years.
與 2019 年的 1/3 相比,2022 年約有一半的團體間夜被預訂。美國和加拿大的商業瞬態需求從第三季度到第四季度保持穩定,恢復了 90% 左右。對於 2023 年,我們很高興在過去 2 年保持這些利率穩定後,通過談判實現了高個位數的特殊企業租金增長。
Our day-of-the-week trends in the U.S. and Canada continue to point to the blending of business and leisure trips. In the fourth quarter, midweek occupancy was still down mid-single-digit percentage points versus 2019, while occupancy on shoulder and weekend nights was down the low single digits.
我們在美國和加拿大的每週趨勢繼續指向商務和休閒旅行的融合。在第四季度,與 2019 年相比,周中入住率仍下降了中個位數百分點,而平日和周末晚上的入住率則下降了較低的個位數。
Additionally, the average length of a business transient trip in the U.S. has risen by more than 20% versus 2019. Rising cross-border travel also helped spur overall demand growth during the quarter, though we believe there's still further upside in 2023, especially now that China's borders have reopened.
此外,與 2019 年相比,美國商務短暫旅行的平均時長增加了 20% 以上。跨境旅行的增加也有助於刺激本季度的整體需求增長,但我們認為 2023 年仍有進一步上升空間,尤其是現在中國的邊界已經重新開放。
Guests traveling outside their home country accounted for 16% of transient room nights globally in the 2022 fourth quarter, 1 percentage point higher than the prior quarter, yet still 3 percentage points lower than 2019. With more than 177 million members, our powerful Marriott Bonvoy program has also been a key driver of demand for our hotels and other lodging offerings and for adjacent products like our Bonvoy co-branded credit cards.
2022 年第四季度,在本國境外旅行的客人佔全球短暫間夜的 16%,比上一季度高出 1 個百分點,但仍比 2019 年低 3 個百分點。擁有超過 1.77 億會員,我們強大的萬豪旅享家該計劃也是我們酒店和其他住宿產品以及我們的 Bonvoy 聯名信用卡等相鄰產品需求的主要驅動力。
Our growing portfolio of credit cards, now in 9 countries following our November card launch in Saudi Arabia, had record global card member acquisitions and card spend last year. Product innovation and engagement with our members remain key focus areas, especially through investments in our Marriott Bonvoy app and other digital products.
自 11 月在沙特阿拉伯推出信用卡後,我們不斷擴大的信用卡產品組合現已在 9 個國家/地區推出,去年全球持卡會員數量和信用卡支出均創下歷史新高。產品創新和與我們會員的互動仍然是我們關注的重點領域,尤其是通過投資我們的萬豪旅享家應用程序和其他數字產品。
We have made great gains in contributions from our digital platforms, which are highly profitable channels for our owners and anticipate many additional enhancements over the next couple of years. In 2022, our mobile app users were up 32% year-over-year, digital room nights rose 27% and digital revenues climbed 41%.
我們已經從我們的數字平台中獲得了巨大的貢獻,這對我們的所有者來說是高利潤的渠道,並且預計在未來幾年內會有許多額外的增強。 2022 年,我們的移動應用用戶同比增長 32%,數字間夜數增長 27%,數字收入增長 41%。
The financing environment for new projects and hotel sales remains challenging, especially here in the U.S. given higher interest rates and uncertainties surrounding a potential economic downturn. However, other industry headwinds like supply chain disruptions, construction costs and availability of labor have improved. Given strong local operating trends, overall developer sentiment improved in 2022, and we had another year of strong signing activity. Our global development team signed franchise and management agreements for nearly 108,000 rooms last year.
新項目和酒店銷售的融資環境仍然充滿挑戰,尤其是在美國,因為利率較高且潛在經濟衰退存在不確定性。然而,供應鏈中斷、建築成本和勞動力供應等其他行業不利因素有所改善。鑑於強勁的本地運營趨勢,2022 年總體開發商情緒有所改善,我們又迎來了強勁的簽約活動。我們的全球開發團隊去年簽署了近 108,000 間客房的特許經營和管理協議。
In addition, upon the anticipated closing of the transaction, the City Express portfolio should add around 17,000 rooms in the moderately priced mid-scale space. We're excited about the opportunity to expand in this segment in the Caribbean and Latin America or CALA region as well as in other locations around the world.
此外,在預計交易完成後,City Express 投資組合將在價格適中的中檔空間中增加約 17,000 間客房。我們很高興有機會在加勒比和拉丁美洲或 CALA 地區以及世界其他地方擴展這一領域。
We also recently announced apartments by Marriott Bonvoy, a new 1- to 3-bedroom service department brand that we plan to launch in the upper upscale and luxury segments. We've already received a great deal of initial interests from owners and developers.
我們最近還宣布了萬豪旅享家的公寓,這是一個新的 1 至 3 居室服務部門品牌,我們計劃在高檔和豪華細分市場推出。我們已經收到了業主和開發商的大量初步興趣。
Momentum in conversions continues, including in multi-property opportunities, thanks to the breadth of our roster of convergent-friendly brands across the chain scales. The meaningful top and bottom line benefits associated with being part of our portfolio make these brands very attractive to owners. Conversions represented nearly 20% of room signings and 27% of room additions in 2022.
轉換的勢頭仍在繼續,包括在多屬性機會中,這要歸功於我們在整個連鎖店範圍內的融合友好品牌名冊的廣度。作為我們產品組合的一部分,有意義的頂線和底線利益使這些品牌對所有者非常有吸引力。到 2022 年,轉化率佔簽約房間的近 20% 和新增房間的 27%。
We added a total of 394 properties last year, representing more than 65,000 rooms and grew our industry-leading system 4.4% on a gross basis or 3.1% net year-over-year. Excluding the impact from our exit of Russia, our net rooms growth was 3.6%.
去年我們總共增加了 394 家酒店,代表超過 65,000 間客房,並且我們行業領先的系統同比增長 4.4% 或淨增長 3.1%。排除我們退出俄羅斯的影響,我們的淨客房增長率為 3.6%。
For 2023, we are forecasting gross rooms growth of around 5.5%, including around 1 percentage point from the anticipated addition of the City Express rooms to our franchise system. Assuming deletions of 1% to 1.5%, net rooms could grow 4% to 4.5%.
到 2023 年,我們預測客房總增長率約為 5.5%,其中包括預計將城市快捷客房添加到我們的特許經營系統中約 1 個百分點。假設刪除 1% 到 1.5%,淨房間數可能增長 4% 到 4.5%。
I'd like to pivot now and share a few highlights of our recent ESG efforts. ESG is an integral part of our company's culture and strategy, and our company is dedicated to making a positive and sustainable impact wherever we do business.
我現在想談談我們最近 ESG 工作的一些亮點。 ESG 是我們公司文化和戰略不可或缺的一部分,我們公司致力於在我們開展業務的任何地方產生積極和可持續的影響。
In June, we committed $50 million to support historically underrepresented groups in the journey to hotel ownership through a new program here in North America called Marriott's Bridging The Gap. This program should help us reach our goal of having at least 3,000 diverse and women-owned hotels in our system by 2025.
6 月,我們承諾提供 5000 萬美元,通過在北美開展的一項名為“萬豪縮小差距”的新計劃,支持歷史上代表性不足的群體獲得酒店所有權。該計劃將幫助我們實現到 2025 年在我們的系統中至少擁有 3,000 家多元化和女性擁有的酒店的目標。
In December, we announced that over 1 million Marriott associates have taken our human trafficking training, which we've also donated to the wider hospitality industries. In terms of workforce diversity and inclusion, our aim is to achieve global gender parity in the company's leadership by 2023 and have people of color hold 25% of U.S. executive positions by 2025. We also continue our work to set science-based emission reduction targets, with more details expected to come later this year.
12 月,我們宣布超過 100 萬萬豪員工參加了我們的人口販運培訓,我們還將這些培訓捐贈給了更廣泛的酒店業。在勞動力多元化和包容性方面,我們的目標是到 2023 年在公司領導層實現全球性別均等,到 2025 年讓有色人種擔任美國高管職位的 25%。我們還繼續努力製定基於科學的減排目標,更多細節預計將在今年晚些時候公佈。
I'm proud of these accomplishments and all that we've achieved in 2022. As we look ahead to full year 2023, there is meaningful uncertainty about global economic growth. Lodging is a cyclical business, and it's not immune to downturns in the macroeconomic environment.
我為這些成就以及我們在 2022 年取得的所有成就感到自豪。展望 2023 年全年,全球經濟增長存在重大不確定性。住宿是一個週期性行業,它不能免受宏觀經濟環境低迷的影響。
To date, however, we have not seen signs of demand softening. Certainly, trends could change relatively quickly given our average transient booking window is around 3 weeks. But 1.5 months into 2023, booking demand and pricing remains strong.
然而,迄今為止,我們還沒有看到需求疲軟的跡象。當然,考慮到我們的平均短暫預訂窗口約為 3 週,趨勢可能會相對快速地發生變化。但進入 2023 年 1.5 個月後,預訂需求和定價仍然強勁。
As Leeny will discuss in her remarks, we're optimistic that global RevPAR will grow year-over-year even if the global economy softens in the back half of this year.
正如 Leeny 將在她的講話中討論的那樣,即使全球經濟在今年下半年走軟,我們仍樂觀地認為全球 RevPAR 將同比增長。
Before I turn the call over to Leeny, I'd like to thank our associates around the world for their hard work and commitment in navigating the last few challenging years and in helping the company achieved these record financial results.
在我將電話轉給 Leeny 之前,我要感謝我們在世界各地的同事,感謝他們在過去幾年充滿挑戰的幾年中的辛勤工作和承諾,並幫助公司取得了這些創紀錄的財務業績。
I also want to make a couple of statements regarding 2 of my senior team members. I'm sure you saw the news in December that Stephanie Linnartz has been appointed Under Armour's new President and CEO, a role that she'll assume at the end of this month.
我還想就我的兩名高級團隊成員發表一些聲明。我相信您在 12 月看到了 Stephanie Linnartz 已被任命為 Under Armour 的新總裁兼首席執行官的消息,她將在本月底擔任這一職務。
Also, after a 35-year career with Marriott that has spanned the globe, Craig Smith, our Group President, International, has informed me of his decision to retire from the company later this month. Craig has developed and mentored hundreds of hotel general managers and above property leaders around the world and has helped us meaningfully accelerate the growth of our international business.
此外,我們的國際集團總裁克雷格·史密斯 (Craig Smith) 在其 35 年的職業生涯中遍及全球,並通知我他決定在本月晚些時候從公司退休。 Craig 在全球培養和指導了數百名酒店總經理及以上的物業領導者,並幫助我們有意義地加快了國際業務的增長。
I want to thank both Stephanie and Craig for their decades of dedication and countless contributions to Marriott. While I will personally miss these 2 excellent senior executives, I'm proud that we have such an incredibly deep management bench. I look forward to sharing more details about new leadership appointments soon.
我要感謝斯蒂芬妮和克雷格幾十年來對萬豪的奉獻和無數貢獻。雖然我個人會想念這兩位優秀的高級管理人員,但我為我們擁有如此深厚的管理層感到自豪。我期待盡快分享有關新領導層任命的更多細節。
Now let me turn the call over to Leeny. Leeny?
現在讓我把電話轉給 Leeny。萊尼?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Thank you, Tony. With sustained momentum in global RevPAR growth, we reported an outstanding quarter. Gross fees rose 16% and adjusted EBITDA climbed 21% over the 2019 fourth quarter. For the full year, we posted record fees, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, despite the Omicron variant causing a slow start to the year.
謝謝你,托尼。憑藉全球 RevPAR 增長的持續勢頭,我們報告了一個出色的季度。與 2019 年第四季度相比,總費用增長了 16%,調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 21%。對於全年,我們公佈了創紀錄的費用、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的每股收益,儘管 Omicron 變體導致今年開局緩慢。
In the fourth quarter, RevPAR versus 2019 accelerated nicely from the third quarter in every region, except Greater China. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, fourth quarter U.S. and Canada RevPAR increased 5%, aided by 11% growth in ADR. RevPAR in the region versus 2019 improved sequentially from the third to the fourth quarter across all market types, from primary to tertiary and all brand tiers, from luxury to select service.
第四季度,除大中華區外,每個地區的 RevPAR 與 2019 年相比都有很好的增長。與大流行前的水平相比,第四季度美國和加拿大的 RevPAR 增長了 5%,這得益於 ADR 增長 11%。該地區的 RevPAR 與 2019 年相比,從第三季度到第四季度,所有市場類型(從一級到三級和所有品牌層級,從奢侈品到精選服務)都有所改善。
International RevPAR rose 3% above pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter, driven by improvements in the comparison to 2019 for both rate and occupancy. In the Middle East and Africa, or EMEA, RevPAR grew 44%, boosted by the World Cup in Qatar. RevPAR increased 28% in CALA, 7% in Europe and 6% in Asia Pacific, except for China.
受與 2019 年相比在房價和入住率方面有所改善的推動,第四季度國際 RevPAR 比大流行前水平增長了 3%。在中東和非洲,即 EMEA,受卡塔爾世界杯的推動,RevPAR 增長了 44%。 CALA 的 RevPAR 增長了 28%,歐洲增長了 7%,亞太地區增長了 6%,中國除外。
While results in Greater China were, again, impacted by lockdowns in the fourth quarter, the region reached a major milestone with the new open border policy and the lifting of quarantine requirements in January. It could take time to increase airline capacity and work-through passport and visa requests, but we're optimistic about meaningful RevPAR recovery in the region as these issues abate.
雖然大中華區的業績在第四季度再次受到封鎖的影響,但隨著新的邊境開放政策和 1 月份檢疫要求的取消,該地區達到了一個重要的里程碑。增加航空公司的運力以及處理護照和簽證申請可能需要時間,但隨著這些問題的緩解,我們對該地區的 RevPAR 有意義的恢復持樂觀態度。
We saw a huge demand surge in January during the Chinese New Year holiday, with RevPAR for the holiday period nearly in line with 2019. Other regions are also anticipated to benefit from an increase in outbound China travel, especially APAC, where over 40% of room nights in 2019 came from Chinese travelers.
我們看到 1 月份農曆新年假期的需求激增,假期期間的 RevPAR 幾乎與 2019 年持平。預計其他地區也將受益於中國出境游的增長,尤其是亞太地區,超過 40% 的出境游2019年的間夜量來自中國遊客。
In the fourth quarter, total gross fee revenues totaled $1.1 billion, reflecting higher RevPAR, room additions and another quarter of significant growth in our non-RevPAR-related franchise fees. Those fees rose 16% year-over-year to $215 million, driven largely by our co-brand credit card fees.
第四季度,總費用收入總計 11 億美元,反映了更高的 RevPAR、房間增加以及我們非 RevPAR 相關特許經營費的另一個季度顯著增長。這些費用同比增長 16% 至 2.15 億美元,這主要是由我們的聯名信用卡費用推動的。
Incentive management fees, or IMF, rose impressively in the quarter, reaching $186 million. IMF surpassed the fourth quarter of 2019 with IMF in the U.S. and Canada, up nearly 30%. At the hotel level, we remain focused on working closely with our owners and franchisees to deliver superior customer service, while containing operating costs.
激勵管理費(IMF)在本季度大幅增長,達到 1.86 億美元。 IMF 超過 2019 年第四季度,美國和加拿大的 IMF 增長了近 30%。在酒店層面,我們仍然專注於與我們的業主和特許經營商密切合作,以提供卓越的客戶服務,同時控制運營成本。
Profit margins at our U.S.-managed hotels in the quarter were, again, higher for the same period of '19 despite meaningful wage and benefit inflation. Importantly, our guest surveys indicate that customer satisfaction continues to rise. In December, our intent to recommend scores in the U.S. improved for the tenth consecutive month and are now generally in line with 2019 scores. Hiring challenges have moderated, and the number of open positions in the U.S. is now below 2019 levels.
儘管工資和福利通脹顯著,但本季度我們在美國管理的酒店的利潤率再次高於 19 年同期。重要的是,我們的客戶調查表明客戶滿意度持續上升。 12 月,我們對美國分數的推薦意向連續第 10 個月有所改善,目前與 2019 年的分數基本一致。招聘挑戰有所緩和,美國的空缺職位數量現在低於 2019 年的水平。
Our asset-light business model, once again, generated significant cash during 2022, with net cash provided by operating activities totaling $2.4 billion, double the amount in 2021. Our loyalty program, with a modest source of cash before factoring in the reduced payments, received from the credit card companies. In 2023, we expect loyalty to, again, be modestly cash positive before the impact of the final year of reduced payments.
我們的輕資產業務模式在 2022 年再次產生了大量現金,經營活動提供的現金淨額總計 24 億美元,是 2021 年的兩倍。我們的忠誠度計劃在扣除支付減少之前的現金來源不多,從信用卡公司收到。到 2023 年,我們預計在最後一年減少付款的影響之前,忠誠度將再次適度保持現金正值。
Now let's talk about our 2023 outlook, the full details of which are in our press release. Note that all RevPAR comparisons will be to 2022. More than 1 in 4 hotels that are currently comparable in both '22 and '23 or opened for the full year were not open in 2019, making comparisons to that year not really meaningful.
現在讓我們談談我們的 2023 年展望,我們的新聞稿中有完整的細節。請注意,所有 RevPAR 比較都將與 2022 年進行比較。目前在 22 年和 23 年都具有可比性或全年開業的酒店中有超過四分之一在 2019 年沒有開業,因此與那一年進行比較並沒有多大意義。
I'll start with the first quarter, which we anticipate will benefit from continued strong underlying trends. There is also a meaningfully easier comparison to the year-ago quarter when the Omicron variant depressed lodging demand.
我將從第一季度開始,我們預計第一季度將受益於持續強勁的潛在趨勢。與去年同期相比,當 Omicron 變體抑制住宿需求時,也有一個有意義的更容易的比較。
Halfway through the quarter, bookings across customer segments and geographies are excellent. Momentum is being driven by rising cross-border travel and strong group revenues due to demand and ADR gains. Additionally, business transient revenues are benefiting from higher volumes and our successful special corporate rate negotiations. January global RevPAR rose 52%, with the U.S. and Canada up 43%. We anticipate that first quarter RevPAR could increase 25% to 27% in the U.S. and Canada, 47% to 49% in international markets and 30% to 32% worldwide.
本季度過半,跨客戶群和地區的預訂量非常好。由於需求和 ADR 收益,跨境旅行的增加和強勁的團體收入推動了這一勢頭。此外,業務瞬時收入受益於更高的交易量和我們成功的特殊企業費率談判。 1 月份全球 RevPAR 上漲 52%,其中美國和加拿大上漲 43%。我們預計美國和加拿大第一季度的 RevPAR 可能增長 25% 至 27%,國際市場增長 47% 至 49%,全球增長 30% 至 32%。
Given short-term booking windows and a significant level of macroeconomic uncertainty, there's less visibility in forecasting the company's financial performance for full year 2023. As a result, we're providing a broad range for full year RevPAR and other key metrics.
鑑於短期預訂窗口和宏觀經濟的顯著不確定性,預測公司 2023 年全年財務業績的可見性較低。因此,我們提供了廣泛的全年 RevPAR 和其他關鍵指標。
The high end of the range reflects a relatively steady global economic picture throughout 2023. With continued resilience of travel demand across customer segments and markets, the low end of the range reflects a meaningful softening of the global economy, beginning in the second quarter with worldwide RevPAR roughly flat compared to 22% in the second half of the year. So for the full year, RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada could increase 5% to 9%, and international RevPAR could rise 12% to 18%, leading to a global RevPAR gain of 6% to 11%.
該範圍的高端反映了整個 2023 年全球經濟形勢相對穩定。隨著客戶群和市場的旅行需求持續保持彈性,該範圍的低端反映了全球經濟從第二季度開始顯著走軟,全球與今年下半年的 22% 相比,RevPAR 大致持平。因此,就全年而言,美國和加拿大的 RevPAR 可能增長 5% 至 9%,國際 RevPAR 可能增長 12% 至 18%,從而導致全球 RevPAR 增長 6% 至 11%。
The sensitivity of a 1% change in full year 2023 RevPAR versus 2022 could be around $40 million to $45 million of RevPAR-related fees. Total fees for the full year could rise between 6% and 12%, with the non-RevPAR-related component anticipated to rise 4% to 7%. Non-RevPAR fee growth is expected to benefit from higher credit card fees resulting from growth in average spend and in the number of cardholders.
與 2022 年相比,2023 年全年 RevPAR 變化 1% 的敏感性可能約為 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元的 RevPAR 相關費用。全年總費用可能上漲 6% 至 12%,與 RevPAR 無關的部分預計上漲 4% 至 7%。非 RevPAR 費用增長預計將受益於平均支出和持卡人數量增長導致的更高信用卡費用。
We expect 2023 G&A expenses of $915 million to $935 million, an annual increase of 3% to 5%, but still below 2019 levels. Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 5% and 12%, and adjusted EPS could rise 8% to 18% above 2022. After 3 years of meaningfully reduced investment spending, we anticipate 2023 investment spending of $850 million to $1 billion. This includes $100 million for the expected acquisition of the City Express brand portfolio and around $160 million of renovation spending on our own W Union Square Hotel in New York and the elegant hotel portfolio in Barbados. These hotels will be terrific representations of our W and all-inclusive brands when completed. We expect to recycle our capital investment in these hotels by selling them with long-term agreements.
我們預計 2023 年的 G&A 費用為 9.15 億美元至 9.35 億美元,年增長率為 3% 至 5%,但仍低於 2019 年的水平。全年調整後的 EBITDA 可能增長 5% 至 12%,調整後的 EPS 可能比 2022 年增長 8% 至 18%。經過 3 年顯著減少的投資支出,我們預計 2023 年的投資支出將達到 8.5 億美元至 10 億美元。這包括 1 億美元用於預期收購 City Express 品牌組合,以及約 1.6 億美元用於我們在紐約的 W 聯合廣場酒店和巴巴多斯的優雅酒店組合的翻新支出。建成後,這些酒店將成為我們 W 和全包式品牌的絕佳代表。我們希望通過長期協議出售這些酒店來回收我們在這些酒店的資本投資。
Spending in 2023 also incorporates higher than typical investment in our customer-facing technology, which is overwhelmingly expected to be reimbursed over time. Our capital allocation philosophy remains the same. We're committed to our investment-grade rating, investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value and then returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend and share repurchases.
2023 年的支出還包含高於我們面向客戶的技術的典型投資,預計隨著時間的推移,這些技術將得到極大的補償。我們的資本配置理念保持不變。我們致力於我們的投資級評級,投資於能夠增加股東價值的增長,然後通過適度的現金股息和股票回購相結合的方式將多餘的資本返還給股東。
In 2022, we returned $2.9 billion to shareholders. At the end of the fourth quarter, our leverage was at the low end of investment grade targets. For 2023, capital returns to shareholders could be between $2.7 billion and $3.6 billion.
2022 年,我們向股東返還了 29 億美元。第四季度末,我們的槓桿率處於投資級別目標的低端。到 2023 年,股東的資本回報可能在 27 億美元至 36 億美元之間。
Before we open the line, I, too, would like to express my gratitude to our incredible team of global associates around the world for their resilience and dedication.
在我們開通生產線之前,我也想對我們在世界各地令人難以置信的全球員工團隊表示感謝,感謝他們的堅韌和奉獻精神。
Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?
托尼和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.
(操作員說明)我們將從 Stephen Grambling 和 Morgan Stanley 提出我們的第一個問題。
Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst
Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst
I wanted to start off on capital allocation here actually. I guess given the moving parts within the rate environment, how are you thinking about the right leverage ratio? And how rate may actually dictate the outcome in terms of that capital allocation that you were referencing or returning cash to shareholders?
實際上,我想從這裡開始進行資本配置。我想考慮到利率環境中的移動部分,您如何考慮正確的槓桿率?利率實際上如何決定你所參考的資本分配或向股東返還現金的結果?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Sure. So overall, Stephen, as I stated in my comments, we are committed to a strong investment-grade credit rating. And we ended the year in terrific shape.
當然。因此,總的來說,斯蒂芬,正如我在評論中所說,我們致力於獲得強大的投資級信用評級。我們以極好的狀態結束了這一年。
I think you can tell from the range that we gave on RevPAR that we see ourselves being in really good shape this year from a cash flow perspective and earnings perspective that does give us great flexibility in how we think about our investing and our capital return.
我想你可以從我們在 RevPAR 上給出的範圍看出,從現金流的角度和收益的角度來看,我們認為自己今年的狀態非常好,這確實讓我們在考慮投資和資本回報方面具有很大的靈活性。
But from an interest rate environment, I think it's more about the overall macroeconomic activity and global growth picture than it is about a specific interest rate. Obviously, we need to see how it plays out. But being at the very low end of our credit ratio metrics, I think, gives us plenty of flexibility to deal with whatever may come.
但從利率環境來看,我認為這更多的是關於整體宏觀經濟活動和全球增長圖景,而不是特定利率。顯然,我們需要看看結果如何。但我認為,由於我們的信用比率指標處於極低端,這給了我們足夠的靈活性來應對可能發生的任何事情。
Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst
Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst
Great. And then maybe a little bit of a different follow-up. We've been seeing some volatility in the corporate booking data on our end. And I guess I'm wondering if you could discuss what you're seeing across large corporate demand versus small and medium-sized business, perhaps tie this into how it might influence the strong IMF that we've been seeing?
偉大的。然後可能會有一些不同的後續行動。我們一直看到我們這邊的公司預訂數據有些波動。我想我想知道你是否可以討論你在大型企業需求與中小企業需求之間看到的情況,也許將其與它如何影響我們一直看到的強大的 IMF 聯繫起來?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Sure. So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the recovery for business transient broadly is still at about 90%. Interestingly for small- and medium-sized companies, which represent about 60-ish percent of our total business transient, they were actually up 6% quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter. So that continues to be strong. We've seen slower albeit steady recovery from larger companies, but they've got a bit of a ways to go to get back to pre-pandemic levels.
當然。因此,正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,業務瞬態的恢復總體上仍處於 90% 左右。有趣的是,對於占我們總業務瞬變 60% 左右的中小型公司而言,它們實際上在第四季度環比增長了 6%。因此,這將繼續保持強勁。我們已經看到大公司的複蘇雖然穩定但速度較慢,但他們還有一些方法可以恢復到大流行前的水平。
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Stephen, the other thing I'll add is I hesitate to call that a trend yet, but it's just worth mentioning that in January, we saw our top special corporate accounts improve another 9 points relative to '19. So in the classic areas of accounting and consulting or defense or health care, we are continuing to see good progress there. But we are only a month into '23 so far.
斯蒂芬,我要補充的另一件事是,我猶豫是否將這種趨勢稱為趨勢,但值得一提的是,在 1 月份,我們看到我們的頂級特殊公司賬戶相對於 19 年又提高了 9 個百分點。因此,在會計和諮詢、國防或醫療保健等經典領域,我們繼續看到良好的進展。但到目前為止,我們進入 23 年才一個月。
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
And maybe the last point I would make, Stephen, is just reiterating what I said earlier in the call, and that is, for the last couple of years, we've rolled over our special corporate rates. And so as we went into the negotiating season this year, we felt like we were in a pretty good place. And that really materialized as we saw negotiated special corporate rates in the high single digits.
也許我要說的最後一點,斯蒂芬,只是重申我早些時候在電話會議上說過的話,那就是,在過去的幾年裡,我們已經推出了我們的特殊公司利率。因此,當我們進入今年的談判季節時,我們覺得自己處於一個非常好的位置。當我們看到高個位數的協商特殊公司利率時,這真的實現了。
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.
我們將接受來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley 的下一個問題。
Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst
Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD in Americas Equity Research & Research Analyst
Tony, I wanted to talk a little bit more about sort of the demand side. So obviously, we know the visibility is a little short in the industry from time to time. But obviously, it looks like everything you're seeing coincidentally is pretty strong.
托尼,我想多談談需求方面的問題。很明顯,我們知道行業中的知名度有時會有點短。但顯然,看起來你偶然看到的一切都非常強大。
So could you help us just unpack a little bit? Your January trends look well above STR averages, even in North America. And then -- so what's kind of powering that? And then specifically, as we kind of work our way through the year, could you just talk about -- a little bit more about what you're seeing on maybe the lead generation side group and how you're underwriting China, just to help us kind of bridge the full year outlook.
那麼你能幫我們打開一下包裝嗎?您的 1 月份趨勢看起來遠高於 STR 平均值,即使在北美也是如此。然後——那是什麼動力呢?然後具體來說,在我們今年的工作中,你能不能多談談你在潛在客戶生成方面看到的情況以及你如何承保中國,只是為了幫助我們有點彌合了全年展望。
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Yes. Of course, Shaun, maybe I'll start with the group just because that's such a terrific story.
是的。當然,肖恩,也許我會從小組開始,因為那是一個非常棒的故事。
You heard the numbers about where we were in the quarter with group revenue for group in the U.S. and Canada, about 10% ahead of where we were pre-pandemic.
你聽說過我們在本季度的數據,美國和加拿大的集團收入比大流行前高出約 10%。
When we look into 2023, there's 2 things I would point to that are really compelling. Number one, we're currently pacing up about 20% year-over-year. And interestingly, that's not just a quarter 1 phenomenon, given the favorable comparisons. We're seeing pretty steady pacing across all quarters in 2023.
當我們展望 2023 年時,我會指出兩件事非常引人注目。第一,我們目前的步伐同比增長約 20%。有趣的是,考慮到有利的比較,這不僅僅是四分之一的現象。我們看到 2023 年所有季度的步伐都非常穩定。
Secondly, I would remind you that the shorter booking window is not specific to transient. We're seeing a little more compressed booking window in group as well. And so we think there is still meaningful upside to group as we launch in the year for the year bookings materialize during the balance of 2023.
其次,我要提醒您的是,較短的預訂窗口並不特定於瞬態。我們也看到團體中的預訂窗口更加壓縮。因此,我們認為,隨著我們在 2023 年餘下時間實現預訂的這一年推出,集團仍有很大的上漲空間。
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
And I'll jump in on China, Shaun, and that is -- well, 2 things. One, to your point about January being particularly strong. If you remember, Omicron was particularly pronounced, right, as we got into January. And obviously, there's a significantly water degree of comfort this year as we moved into Q1.
肖恩,我會跳進中國,那就是 - 兩件事。第一,關於一月份特別強勁的觀點。如果你還記得的話,當我們進入 1 月時,Omicron 特別明顯,對吧。顯然,隨著我們進入第一季度,今年的舒適度明顯提高。
So I think you saw the momentum that was building in Q4 and really all throughout '22 continue into January as we saw all parts of the business firing on all cylinders. And then when you think about China, we saw tremendous leisure demand associated with the Chinese New Year, but we are really pleased with the overall pace of demand that we're seeing there. And just to give you a rough sense, we could see -- in Greater China, we could see that RevPAR for the year '23 over '22 is over 30% increase. And obviously, the biggest increase will be in the first quarter.
所以我認為你看到了第四季度正在形成的勢頭,實際上整個 22 年一直持續到 1 月,因為我們看到業務的所有部分都在全力以赴。然後當你想到中國時,我們看到了與中國新年相關的巨大休閒需求,但我們對那裡的整體需求速度感到非常滿意。為了給你一個粗略的感覺,我們可以看到——在大中華區,我們可以看到 23 年和 22 年的 RevPAR 增長了 30% 以上。顯然,最大的增幅將出現在第一季度。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.
我們將從摩根大通的 Joe Greff 那裡回答下一個問題。
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Joseph Richard Greff - MD
Tony, can you talk about what's going on with pipeline signings in China presently? And how much of a, I guess, of a disruption, whether it be in the first quarter given what's been going on there? And then when you look back at the fourth quarter, and the development pipeline was down a little bit sequentially. There have been quarters in the last 4 years, where it's down sequentially. It doesn't mean anything necessarily. How much of the sequential pipeline in the fourth quarter was explained by disruption in China signings?
托尼,你能談談目前中國的管道簽約情況嗎?我猜,考慮到那裡發生的事情,是否在第一季度發生了多少中斷?然後當你回顧第四季度時,開發管道順序有所下降。在過去的 4 年中,有幾個季度連續下降。這不一定意味著什麼。第四季度的順序流水線有多少是由於中國簽約中斷造成的?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Sure. Maybe I'll take the second question first. The pipeline tends, as you well know, to ebb and flow quarter-to-quarter. The statistic I look at related to pipeline that I think is a bit more telling is the 2% year-over-year increase in the pipeline.
當然。也許我會先回答第二個問題。如您所知,管道往往每季度起伏不定。我看到的與管道相關的統計數據,我認為更有說服力的是管道同比增長 2%。
Obviously, deals come in and out of the pipeline in a year where nearly 30% of our openings were conversions. We've talked in the past about the fact that some conversions never even make it into the pipeline. They get signed and opened quite quickly.
顯然,在我們近 30% 的空缺都是轉換的一年裡,交易進進出出。我們過去曾討論過這樣一個事實,即某些轉換甚至從未進入管道。他們很快就簽署並打開了。
On your first question about China signings, China signings last year were down about 15% from where we were in '21. And they were down a little more than 1/3 from where we were in '19. As the borders open, we expect to see meaningful positive impact certainly on demand patterns, but also on the health and the outlook of our development partners. And so we would expect an acceleration in deal volume.
關於你關於中國簽約的第一個問題,去年中國的簽約比我們在 21 世紀的水平下降了大約 15%。他們比我們在 19 年的水平下降了 1/3 多一點。隨著邊界的開放,我們希望看到對需求模式以及我們發展夥伴的健康和前景產生有意義的積極影響。因此,我們預計交易量會加速增長。
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
And Joe, the only thing that I'll add is there was the obvious challenges for opening hotels in China tied to the shutdown in China that impacted permits and getting the teams trained and up and running. And so from that respect, we certainly saw a few drift from where we had expected them opened in Q4 to open in Q1. And I think that was clearly to be expected as they saw the shutdown continue. But again, as things open up, we look forward to them increasing.
喬,我要補充的唯一一件事是,在中國開設酒店面臨著明顯的挑戰,這些挑戰與中國的關閉有關,這影響了許可證以及團隊的培訓、啟動和運行。因此,從這方面來看,我們確實看到了一些偏離我們預期的第四季度開業到第一季度開業的情況。而且我認為這顯然是可以預料的,因為他們看到停工仍在繼續。但是,隨著事情的發展,我們再次期待它們的增加。
Operator
Operator
And we'll take our next question from Robin Farley with UBS.
我們將從瑞銀的 Robin Farley 那裡回答下一個問題。
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
My question is on the unit growth outlook, and there's some acceleration embedded in there. You mentioned China, obviously, is one of the drivers of that. And I guess the City Express acquisition. So just wondering if you have any other acquisitions in that unit growth guidance, just to clarify that?
我的問題是關於單位增長前景,那裡嵌入了一些加速。你提到中國,顯然是其中的驅動力之一。我猜是 City Express 的收購。所以只是想知道您在該單位增長指南中是否還有其他收購,只是為了澄清一下?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
We do not.
我們不。
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
And then -- okay. Great. Perfect. And then my other question was on City Express because you've talked about using that to grow in other regions. And I'm curious you haven't mentioned potentially using it in the U.S. There are others out there sort of looking to grow units in the more limited service segments in the mid-scale and economy segments, and that hasn't been a big focus for Marriott.
然後——好的。偉大的。完美的。然後我的另一個問題是關於 City Express 的,因為你已經談到使用它在其他地區發展。而且我很好奇你沒有提到可能在美國使用它。還有其他人正在尋求在中等規模和經濟領域的更有限的服務領域增加單位,這並不是一個大問題專注於萬豪。
I'm just curious if you have any thoughts on those segments, and then also sort of why or why not use of this new brand that is more -- is further down the chain scale and some of your other brands in the U.S. market as well?
我只是想知道您是否對這些細分市場有任何想法,然後也想知道為什麼或為什麼不使用這個更多的新品牌 - 進一步降低連鎖規模以及您在美國市場的其他一些品牌出色地?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Of course. So we are very excited to get over the finish line with City Express. As we outlined, when we announced our intent to acquire City, it represents our entry into the mid-scale segment, which is very exciting. It increases our portfolio significantly in the important and growing CALA region. We expect to grow that brand aggressively across CALA, and we are -- as we move towards closing that transaction, evaluating the applicability of that brand in other markets around the world.
當然。因此,我們很高興能與 City Express 一起越過終點線。正如我們概述的那樣,當我們宣布有意收購 City 時,它代表著我們進入中端市場,這非常令人興奮。它顯著增加了我們在重要且不斷發展的 CALA 地區的投資組合。我們希望在整個 CALA 積極發展該品牌,而且我們正在 - 隨著我們接近完成該交易,評估該品牌在全球其他市場的適用性。
We've not made definitive decisions about when and if we will roll out City Express in other places, but you can rest assured those evaluations and discussions are going on as we speak.
我們尚未就何時以及是否在其他地方推出 City Express 做出明確決定,但您可以放心,這些評估和討論正在進行中。
I do think if you look at our historical track record of acquisitions, many of those acquisitions initially either strengthened our leadership position or gave us a meaningful foothold in a region where we weren't growing as quickly as we'd like organically. And then over the passage of time, we look for opportunities to grow that platform more broadly. And I think the same strategy will apply to City Express.
我確實認為,如果你看看我們的歷史收購記錄,其中許多收購最初要么加強了我們的領導地位,要么讓我們在一個我們沒有像我們希望的那樣快速有機增長的地區站穩腳跟。然後隨著時間的推移,我們尋找機會更廣泛地發展該平台。我認為同樣的策略將適用於 City Express。
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst
Great. And just one quick follow-up, if I could. Just -- is there anything you would call out with termination fees? Is it a big part of the growth in that line item? How is that compared to termination fees for pre-pandemic? Or just anything going on there that you would call out?
偉大的。如果可以的話,只需快速跟進一次。只是 - 有什麼關於終止費的嗎?它是該訂單項增長的重要組成部分嗎?與大流行前的終止費相比如何?或者你會大聲說出那裡發生的任何事情?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Sure. Nothing in particular. They do vary. They can be something related to one hotel or a particular transaction, but they vary.
當然。沒什麼特別的。他們確實有所不同。它們可能與一家酒店或某項特定交易有關,但它們各不相同。
We've talked about them before, Robin. It's kind of varying anywhere from $20 million to $40 million in a particular year. And as you saw from our deletions number, apart from Russia, we're really absolutely quite where we typically are. So there's nothing particular in that number.
我們以前談過他們,羅賓。它在特定年份從 2000 萬美元到 4000 萬美元不等。正如您從我們的刪除數量中看到的那樣,除了俄羅斯,我們確實完全處於我們通常所在的位置。所以這個數字沒有什麼特別的。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.
我們將與伯恩斯坦一起接受理查德克拉克的下一個問題。
Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst
Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst
The first one is on the incentive fees. The incentive management fees seem to have recovered about 10% quicker than the base management fees. And in the past, you've talked about whether that's a small number of hotels paying a lot of incentive fees or whether that's becoming a sort of more broad-based increase in profitability. So just wondering maybe you could comment on what's sort of supporting the outperformance of the incentive?
第一個是關於獎勵費。激勵管理費的恢復速度似乎比基本管理費快 10%。過去,您曾談到這是少數酒店支付大量獎勵費用,還是正在成為一種更廣泛的盈利增長。所以只是想知道也許你可以評論一下是什麼支持激勵措施的出色表現?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Yes, sure, absolutely. So just -- while Q4 was spectacular, and we really had a wonderful performance in our incentive fees. The reality is they are still meaningfully lower than they were in 2019. While the rest of our fees have grown quite nicely, our basin franchise fees as rooms have grown, RevPAR has recovered as well as the non-RevPAR fee growth has increased.
是的,當然,絕對。所以 - 雖然第四季度非常壯觀,但我們在獎勵費用方面確實表現出色。事實上,它們仍然比 2019 年低得多。雖然我們的其他費用增長相當不錯,但我們的盆地特許經營費隨著房間的增長而增長,RevPAR 已經恢復,非 RevPAR 費用增長也有所增加。
So when you look at IMF as a percentage of total fees compared to '19, they've actually gone down. And we would expect them to continue to be a little bit lower than they have historically been. And they do, obviously, reflect a little bit riskier fee stream for us than comparing to the classic base in franchise fees.
因此,當您將 IMF 與 19 年相比佔總費用的百分比時,它們實際上已經下降了。我們預計它們會繼續比歷史上的水平低一點。顯然,與特許經營費的經典基礎相比,它們確實反映了對我們來說風險更高的費用流。
But when you look at kind of where we are in terms of hotel's earning incentive fees, I think there are a couple of interesting statistics. And that is that in '22, 61% of our managed hotels earned an incentive fee that compares to 72% in 2019. And in the U.S., 39% of our full-service hotels earned an incentive fee versus 45% in 2019.
但是當你看看我們在酒店賺取獎勵費方面的情況時,我認為有一些有趣的統計數據。也就是說,在 22 世紀,我們管理的酒店中有 61% 賺取了獎勵費,而 2019 年這一比例為 72%。在美國,我們提供全方位服務的酒店中有 39% 賺取了獎勵費,而 2019 年這一比例為 45%。
And I break -- I don't include MSB because there's a very big difference in the managed limited service hotel portfolio between '22 and '19, so it's not as relevant a number. And as you know, many of our Asia Pacific incentive fees are not back to '19 levels as a result of their RevPAR recovering a bit later than the U.S.
我打破了——我不包括 MSB,因為 22 歲和 19 歲之間的託管有限服務酒店組合有很大差異,所以它不是一個相關的數字。如您所知,我們亞太地區的許多獎勵費用都沒有回到 19 年的水平,因為他們的 RevPAR 恢復得比美國晚一點。
So I think we're thrilled with the performance of our operating team, very proud of the work that they have done, especially given wage increases. And I think to one point that you're raising, we're excited about what we see in '23 and the years ahead for the IMF potential for our hotels.
所以我認為我們對我們運營團隊的表現感到興奮,對他們所做的工作感到非常自豪,特別是考慮到工資上漲。而且我認為你提出的一點,我們對我們在 23 年和未來幾年看到的我們酒店的 IMF 潛力感到興奮。
Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst
Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst
Okay. That's great. Just a quick follow-up to someone's question earlier. They refer to acceleration in the net unit growth. If I did the math right, it looks like you did 3.6% ex-Russia exit in 2022, and that drops down to 3.5% ex-City Express in 2023. So is that correct? And if you've got some China hotels moving into this year, where is that slowdown coming from?
好的。那太棒了。只是快速跟進之前某人的問題。他們指的是淨單位增長的加速。如果我算對了,看起來你在 2022 年退出了 3.6%(俄羅斯除外),到 2023 年下降到 3.5%(城市快遞除外)。這是正確的嗎?如果今年有一些中國酒店入住,那麼放緩的原因是什麼?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Well, again, I want to make sure we certainly include City Express. When we think about our rooms growth, that's a very important component of how we think strategically about how we're growing around the world. So when I think about accelerating rooms growth that is a part of it.
好吧,我想再次確保我們肯定包括 City Express。當我們考慮我們的客房增長時,這是我們戰略性思考我們如何在世界範圍內發展的一個非常重要的組成部分。因此,當我考慮加速房間增長時,這是其中的一部分。
And then when I think of the timing, we've clearly got the reality that construction starts over the past couple of years in the U.S. are having an impact in '23, in particular, in the U.S. for room openings. But again, otherwise, with the signings that you heard Tony talking about, we're very enthused about what we see going forward and then conversions have been a big component as well.
然後,當我想到時機時,我們清楚地認識到美國過去幾年的建設開始對 23 世紀產生影響,特別是在美國的房間開放方面。但同樣,除此之外,你聽到托尼談論的簽約,我們對我們看到的未來非常熱情,然後轉換也是一個重要組成部分。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Smedes Rose with Citi.
我們將從花旗的 Smedes Rose 那裡回答下一個問題。
Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst
Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst
I just wanted to ask a little bit more about the capital spending in 2023. I know you broke out a couple of the line items. Are you thinking any differently about the way that you allocate, I guess, key money, either for conversions or for developers who are considering their brand options? Or anything different there than maybe you've done in the past?
我只是想多問一點關於 2023 年資本支出的問題。我知道你列出了幾個項目。你對你分配的方式有什麼不同的想法,我猜,關鍵資金,無論是用於轉換還是用於正在考慮其品牌選擇的開發人員?或者有什麼與您過去所做的不同的地方嗎?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Yes. No, Smedes, I thought you might ask this question. So I definitely think it would be helpful to break it down. So if you use, kind of roughly speaking, a midpoint of what I talked about, about $900 million and you take out the renovation projects at the W Union Square and Barbados as well as the $100 million for City Express, you're down to $650 million.
是的。不,Smedes,我想你可能會問這個問題。所以我絕對認為將其分解會有所幫助。所以,如果你使用,粗略地說,我所說的中間點,大約 9 億美元,你拿出 W 聯合廣場和巴巴多斯的翻新項目以及城市快車的 1 億美元,你將減少到6.5億美元。
Then you've got higher spend on tech systems that will overwhelmingly be reimbursed to us from the system of, call it, another $150 million in '23 that's higher than typical. That then gets you down to $500 million, which is quite similar to this year's $500 million.
然後你在技術系統上的支出更高,這些支出將絕大多數從系統中報銷給我們,稱之為 23 年的另外 1.5 億美元,這比典型的要高。那會讓你下降到 5 億美元,這與今年的 5 億美元非常相似。
I think when you think about key money being, again, in the ballpark of perhaps $200 million, $225 million in '23, that actually lines up quite well with our historical kinds of numbers for the growth of the system. And as you know, many, many of the deals that we signed do not require any capital investment on the part of Marriott.
我認為當你再次考慮關鍵資金時,23 年可能達到 2 億美元,2.25 億美元,這實際上與我們系統增長的歷史數字非常吻合。如您所知,我們簽署的許多交易不需要萬豪進行任何資本投資。
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
And I might just build on that, Smedes, by reminding you of an obvious fact, which is -- and we've shared this in prior Analyst Days. The deals that we determined we may deploy some measure of Marriott capital, even in the form of key money, tend to drive premium valuations and premium fees. And they tend to be much more heavily weighted to our leading luxury portfolio and some of the upper upscale projects as well.
我可能只是以此為基礎,Smedes,通過提醒你一個明顯的事實,那就是 - 我們已經在之前的分析師日分享了這一點。我們確定我們可能會部署某種程度的萬豪資本的交易,即使是以關鍵資金的形式,也往往會推動溢價估值和溢價費用。而且它們往往更傾向於我們領先的奢侈品組合和一些高檔項目。
Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst
Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst
And can I just follow up on Robin's question about City Express or just in general? With your largest, I guess, U.S. competitor making a move on what's being term, premium economy, do you feel that it's important for Marriott to also be in that segment in terms of sort of capturing, I guess, a wider range of customers? I mean, traditionally, you haven't really dipped down below, I guess, we call it like upper mid-scale. I mean I guess sort of thinking strategically, is that something that you need to be more attentive to or maybe not so much?
我可以跟進 Robin 關於 City Express 的問題還是一般性的問題?你最大的,我猜,美國競爭對手在所謂的高級經濟領域採取行動,你認為萬豪在捕獲更廣泛的客戶方面也進入該細分市場是否重要?我的意思是,傳統上,你並沒有真正深入到下面,我猜,我們稱之為中上層。我的意思是我想有點戰略性地思考,這是你需要更加註意或者可能不需要那麼多的事情嗎?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Yes, I won't comment on our competitors. What I will tell you is our growth strategy broadly is driven by what we hear from the 2 constituents that are most directly impacted, obviously, our guests and our owners and franchisees.
是的,我不會評論我們的競爭對手。我要告訴你的是,我們的增長戰略總體上是由我們從受影響最直接的 2 個組成部分那裡聽到的,顯然是我們的客人以及我們的所有者和特許經營商。
And what we hear from them loudly and clearly is at the right quality level, entry into mid-scale is of great appeal. An alternative lodging product like Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy is equally appealing to both of those constituents, and that's where our focus lies right now in terms of expanding the portfolio.
我們從他們那里大聲而清楚地聽到的是正確的質量水平,進入中等規模具有很大的吸引力。另一種住宿產品,如 Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy,對這兩個群體同樣具有吸引力,而這正是我們目前擴展產品組合的重點所在。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.
我們將接受來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes 的下一個問題。
Charles Patrick Scholes - MD of Lodging, Gaming and Leisure Equity Research & Analyst
Charles Patrick Scholes - MD of Lodging, Gaming and Leisure Equity Research & Analyst
First question, I apologize if I missed this. But on your international RevPAR guidance for the first quarter and full year, can you just give us a little more quantification of how you would expect the various international markets to perform regarding -- or versus those RevPAR ranges you gave, such as Europe and Asia Pacific?
第一個問題,如果我錯過了這個,我深表歉意。但是關於第一季度和全年的國際 RevPAR 指南,您能否再量化一下您對不同國際市場的預期表現——或者與您給出的那些 RevPAR 範圍相比,例如歐洲和亞洲太平洋?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Yes. So broadly, you heard us talk about 47% to 49% for international in the first quarter.
是的。所以從廣義上講,你聽到我們談論第一季度國際市場的 47% 到 49%。
And as you think about kind of around the world, I would expect Asia Pacific, both APAC, in particular, outside of China to be meaningfully above that. Greater China, probably somewhere in that ballpark.
當你考慮世界各地的情況時,我希望亞太地區,特別是中國以外的亞太地區能夠有意義地高於這一水平。大中華區,可能在那個球場的某個地方。
You clearly saw that EMEA will also be kind of in that very high sort of range, with particularly Europe being a real outlier, very high given where they were a year ago in the first quarter. So I think the easiest way to think about it is where Omicron was having the greatest impact is where you'll see these outsized performances.
你清楚地看到 EMEA 也將處於非常高的範圍內,特別是歐洲是一個真正的異常值,考慮到他們一年前在第一季度的水平非常高。所以我認為最簡單的思考方式是 Omicron 產生最大影響的地方就是你會看到這些超凡表現的地方。
Because, for example, a year ago, EMEA, the Middle East was not as impacted by Omicron. So their year-over-year increase will not be as strong. I think one of the messages that we want you to hear is that in this current environment, when you think about kind of moving from Q4 into Q1, we're still seeing good opportunities for continued strength and growth in occupancy and rate apart from any normal seasonal variation.
因為,例如,一年前,EMEA,中東並沒有受到 Omicron 的影響。因此,他們的同比增長不會那麼強勁。我認為我們希望您聽到的一個信息是,在當前環境下,當您考慮從第四季度進入第一季度時,我們仍然看到入住率和房價持續走強和增長的好機會,除了任何正常的季節性變化。
Charles Patrick Scholes - MD of Lodging, Gaming and Leisure Equity Research & Analyst
Charles Patrick Scholes - MD of Lodging, Gaming and Leisure Equity Research & Analyst
Okay. And just a follow-up question, more of an operational issue. There's a bit of a debate out there whether housekeeping will be coming back. I was at Allison, I talked to some of the large managers, and they're at the belief that housekeeping will be coming back eventually on a daily type of service, I'm curious what your thoughts are on that amenity?
好的。這只是一個後續問題,更像是一個運營問題。關於家務管理是否會回歸,存在一些爭論。我在 Allison,我和一些大經理談過,他們相信家政服務最終會回歸日常服務,我很好奇你對這種便利設施有什麼看法?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Of course. I might repeat myself a little bit in the comment I made earlier about City Express. When we make these sort of operating protocol decisions, we are guided by both the evolving expectations of our guests and the economic realities of our owners and franchisees weighing both of those sets of expectations and needs.
當然。我可能會重複我之前對 City Express 所做的評論。當我們做出此類運營協議決定時,我們會以客人不斷變化的期望以及我們的所有者和特許經營商的經濟現實為指導,權衡這兩種期望和需求。
What we've said is we will have modified housekeeping protocols by quality tier. So in our luxury portfolio, we are essentially back to pre-pandemic full daily housekeeping. In the upper upscale tier, we have daily tidy, so not a full cleaning, but making the bed, changing the tearing, cleaning the trash, et cetera.
我們所說的是我們將按質量等級修改管理協議。因此,在我們的奢侈品組合中,我們基本上回到了大流行前的日常清潔。在較高的高檔樓層,我們每天都要打掃衛生,所以不是全面清潔,而是整理床鋪、更換床單、清理垃圾等。
And in our select service, or MSB portfolio, we have every other day tidy. What we hear from our guests, if you give us optionality, which we do both in the booking path and a check-in. And if you give us something we can count on consistently, you will meet our needs. And this blended approach captures a lot of the economics that we created during the pandemic for our owners and franchisees.
在我們的精選服務或 MSB 產品組合中,我們每隔一天整理一次。我們從客人那裡聽到的,如果您給我們選擇權,我們會在預訂路徑和入住時這樣做。如果你給我們一些我們可以始終信賴的東西,你就會滿足我們的需要。這種混合方法捕獲了我們在大流行期間為我們的所有者和加盟商創造的許多經濟效益。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Dori Kesten with Wells Fargo.
我們將從 Dori Kesten 和 Wells Fargo 那裡回答下一個問題。
Dori Lynn Kesten - Senior Analyst
Dori Lynn Kesten - Senior Analyst
You mentioned higher technology costs this year. We've heard that you have some pretty interesting plans on that front that owners are looking forward to. Can you just walk through what the changes are that we may see over the next several years?
你提到今年更高的技術成本。我們聽說你們在這方面有一些非常有趣的計劃,業主們非常期待。您能否介紹一下我們在未來幾年可能會看到的變化?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
I'll start and give you the investment perspective, and then I'm sure Tony will jump in. So I guess, first, I would say this is not what I would call one thing. This is really a recognition that we view that the digital experience and the experience for our customers and for our associates on the systems that they interact with the company as being of critical importance over the next few years or really forever.
我會開始給你投資觀點,然後我相信託尼會加入。所以我想,首先,我想說這不是我所說的一件事。這確實是一種認識,我們認為數字體驗以及我們的客戶和我們的員工在他們與公司互動的系統上的體驗在未來幾年或真正永遠至關重要。
And so in that regard, we're very excited about the work that we're doing on our tech systems that really will transform the experience for the mobile app and for our guests as they plan and execute their stays with us. It will also transform the experience for our associates, which is critically important as well as we think about how they take care of our guests, most particularly, as they are able to interact with our Bonvoy guests to really address their specific needs.
因此,在這方面,我們對我們在技術系統上所做的工作感到非常興奮,這些工作將真正改變移動應用程序和我們的客人在計劃和執行與我們的住宿時的體驗。它還將改變我們員工的體驗,這一點至關重要,而且我們會考慮他們如何照顧我們的客人,尤其是因為他們能夠與我們的 Bonvoy 客人互動以真正滿足他們的特定需求。
So as we look at rolling it out, you've probably seen our announcements of working with several third-party service providers to really transform several of our systems. But I also think it's worth noting that we've already done incredible things on our app and the experience from the digital communications and platform with our customers and our ability to really address their specific wants and needs has already improved meaningfully, and we expect to build on that.
因此,當我們著眼於推出它時,您可能已經看到我們宣布與多家第三方服務提供商合作以真正改造我們的幾個系統。但我也認為值得注意的是,我們已經在我們的應用程序上做了令人難以置信的事情,我們與客戶的數字通信和平台體驗以及我們真正滿足他們特定需求的能力已經有了有意義的改進,我們希望以此為基礎。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from David Katz with Jefferies.
我們將與 Jefferies 一起接受 David Katz 的下一個問題。
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure
So I wanted to just look into the owned and leased profit within the guidance versus what you just reported. It looks like it is flattish or down a bit. And I just wondered was there something in '22 that lifted it up? Or are there some -- what -- if you could help us unpack that a little bit.
所以我只想看看指南中的自有利潤和租賃利潤與你剛剛報告的利潤。看起來有點扁平或向下。我只是想知道 22 年是否有什麼東西提升了它?或者是否有一些——什麼——如果你能幫助我們稍微解壓一下。
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Sure. Absolutely. So a couple of things, David. I would say, first of all, we do have 2 really important innovation -- renovation projects going on in '23. No surprise, Barbados was crushing it over the past year as you think about leisure demand. And as we really do a very full renovation of these properties, that will have an impact on unleased profits.
當然。絕對地。所以有幾件事,大衛。我想說,首先,我們確實有 2 個非常重要的創新——23 年正在進行的改造項目。毫不奇怪,考慮到休閒需求,巴巴多斯在過去一年中表現出色。由於我們真的對這些房產進行了非常全面的翻新,這將對未出租利潤產生影響。
I would expect termination fees to be a bit lower as we look at '23 versus '22. We had a couple of other things that are close to offsetting. If you remember, in Q1, in particular, of '22, we had the German subsidies. So they hit in Q1 of '22, and we, obviously, will not have them in Q1 of '23. We also had an agreement on a pack of leased U.S. hotels that involved a charge later in the year in '22. And obviously, we won't have that in '23. So there'll be a little bit between the quarters that moves things around those 2 things largely offset each other. So I really would look to both termination fees as well as the issue around renovation.
當我們查看 23 年和 22 年時,我預計終止費會低一些。我們還有其他一些接近抵消的事情。如果您還記得,特別是在 22 年第一季度,我們獲得了德國補貼。所以他們在 22 年的第一季度取得了成功,而我們顯然不會在 23 年的第一季度擁有他們。我們還就一組租賃的美國酒店達成了一項協議,該協議涉及在 22 年晚些時候收取的費用。顯然,我們不會在 23 年擁有它。所以在兩個季度之間有一點點讓事情圍繞這兩件事在很大程度上相互抵消。所以我真的會考慮終止費和裝修問題。
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure
David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure
Okay. Perfect. And as my follow-up, I wanted to just touch on deletions quickly, because I -- and I apologize if it sounds like a negative question. There's just been a lot of discussion about the NUG. But this 1 to 1.5 deletions going forward, is that what we should think about as kind of a normal course number?
好的。完美的。作為我的後續行動,我想快速談談刪除問題,因為我——如果這聽起來像是一個否定的問題,我深表歉意。剛才有很多關於 NUG 的討論。但是,這 1 到 1.5 的刪除是我們應該考慮的正常課程編號嗎?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
It's a good question. I would suggest to you that the 1 to 1.5 range is more reflective of some of the uncertainty that Leeny described in her remarks, and it resulted ultimately in us providing forward guidance on RevPAR in a wider range than we might historically have offered.
這是個好問題。我建議您,1 到 1.5 的範圍更能反映 Leeny 在她的評論中描述的一些不確定性,這最終導致我們在比以往可能提供的範圍更廣的範圍內提供有關 RevPAR 的前瞻性指導。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Bill Crow with Raymond James.
我們將與 Raymond James 一起接受 Bill Crow 的下一個問題。
William Andrew Crow - Analyst
William Andrew Crow - Analyst
I might as well follow up on the NUG question. Assuming no large acquisition repeats in 2023, should we assume that 2024 is back in that kind of 3.5% range?
我不妨跟進 NUG 問題。假設 2023 年沒有重複大型收購,我們是否應該假設 2024 年回到 3.5% 的範圍內?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Well, Bill, we were excited to be able to give you some visibility into '23. '24 is probably a little ambitious. What I will tell you though is, notwithstanding some of the constriction in the debt markets, we are encouraged that we are seeing incremental acceleration of construction starts, albeit not back to where we were in 2019.
好吧,比爾,我們很高興能夠讓您了解 23 年。 '24 可能有點雄心勃勃。不過,我要告訴你的是,儘管債務市場出現了一些緊縮,但令我們感到鼓舞的是,我們看到建築開工正在逐步加速,儘管還沒有回到 2019 年的水平。
We are encouraged by what we experienced both on the signings and openings front in 2022 with conversions and expect that momentum to continue to build both on an individual asset basis and a portfolio basis.
我們對 2022 年在簽約和開業方面經歷的轉變感到鼓舞,並預計這種勢頭將繼續在個人資產和投資組合的基礎上建立起來。
William Andrew Crow - Analyst
William Andrew Crow - Analyst
Okay. And then my follow-up question would be on just the operating expense environment in the U.S. If you could just kind of give us a little bit of details on what you're seeing on the labor front, kind of year-over-year increase and then maybe all other expenses or the total expense growth expectation for this year?
好的。然後我的後續問題將是關於美國的運營費用環境。如果你能給我們一些關於你在勞動力方面看到的情況的細節,有點同比增長然後是所有其他費用或今年的總費用增長預期?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Sure. As you've seen in our numbers, we've given you the expectation of 3% to 5% on the year. And that really, as you think about it, reflects just continuing to be more and more back-end business. So whether it is higher travel expenses or a little bit more annualization of positions that we added in '21 and '22. But really, other than that, I would say, really quite normal. The wage pressures have moderated, Bill. And we are seeing a more normalized environment, both at the property level as well as above property.
當然。正如您在我們的數字中看到的那樣,我們給了您 3% 到 5% 的預期。正如你所想的那樣,這真的反映了越來越多的後端業務。因此,無論是更高的差旅費用還是我們在 21 年和 22 年增加的職位的年化程度更高。但實際上,除此之外,我會說,真的很正常。工資壓力有所緩和,比爾。我們正在看到一個更加規範化的環境,無論是在財產層面還是在財產之上。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Brandt Montour with Barclays.
我們將接受來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandt Montour 的下一個問題。
Brandt Antoine Montour - Research Analyst
Brandt Antoine Montour - Research Analyst
So maybe starting with you, Leeny, if you could. You mentioned non-RevPAR fees growing -- could grow 4% to 7%. I was wondering if you would be willing to break that out a little bit and talk about the credit card fee portion, at least in relation to RevPAR growth? And then what that would imply for residential fees and other?
所以也許可以從你開始,Leeny,如果可以的話。你提到非 RevPAR 費用在增長——可能增長 4% 到 7%。我想知道您是否願意稍微打破這一點並談談信用卡費用部分,至少與 RevPAR 增長有關?那麼這對住宿費和其他費用意味著什麼?
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Sure. So as you know, residential branding fees are bumpy. They really do vary depending on the timing of the opening of when a building is complete and people can actually move in and close their sales. So they tend to vary. They've gone anywhere from $40 million to $70 million within a space of 2 years.
當然。如您所知,住宅品牌費用是顛簸的。它們確實會有所不同,具體取決於建築物完工時的開放時間,以及人們何時可以實際入住並結束銷售。所以他們往往會有所不同。他們在 2 年的時間裡從 4000 萬美元到 7000 萬美元不等。
As you've heard us say, we have a really robust pipeline of residential projects. And so while I would expect the residential branding fees to be more flattish compared to '22, that's really just a reflection of timing. When I think about credit card fees, we expect them to increase both as a combination of a higher number of cardholders, and that's partly in the U.S. and partly from the fact that we've added a bunch of other countries as well as increased spend.
正如您聽到我們所說的那樣,我們擁有非常強大的住宅項目管道。因此,雖然我預計住宅品牌費用與 22 年相比會更加平穩,但這實際上只是時間的反映。當我考慮信用卡費用時,我們預計它們會隨著持卡人數量的增加而增加,這部分是在美國,部分是因為我們增加了一些其他國家以及增加了支出.
I do think the average spend for an existing cardholder, that growth will moderate in '23 as compared to '22. Those are tied into how I think, generally, we're seeing the economic view. So for example, that might look more like inflation, while the wonderful terrific increase comes from more and more cardholders.
我確實認為現有持卡人的平均支出,與 22 年相比,23 年的增長將放緩。這些與我的想法有關,一般來說,我們看到的是經濟觀點。因此,例如,這可能看起來更像是通貨膨脹,而驚人的增長來自越來越多的持卡人。
Brandt Antoine Montour - Research Analyst
Brandt Antoine Montour - Research Analyst
That's hugely helpful. And then just as a follow-up on the development outlook and discussion from earlier. Obviously, signings sound like they're really strong, Tony had talked about. I'm curious if you could talk a little bit about the segment of the pipeline that's in the planning phases, not just signed, but maybe had been there for a little bit? And not necessarily stale, but just curious if there's a dynamic in that pipeline that you're seeing that's any different than history?
這非常有幫助。然後作為對早期發展前景和討論的跟進。很明顯,簽約聽起來很厲害,Tony 說過。我很好奇你是否可以談談處於規劃階段的管道部分,不僅僅是簽署,而且可能已經存在了一點?不一定是陳舊的,但只是好奇你看到的管道中是否有動態,這與歷史有什麼不同?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
No, I don't think so. I mean maybe the best empirical metric to answer your question is fall out from the pipeline, which would be canceled projects, and that's running interestingly kind of on pace with what we've experienced historically over a long period of time and with what we were experiencing prior to the pandemic.
不,我不這麼認為。我的意思是也許回答你問題的最好的經驗指標是從管道中掉下來,這將被取消的項目,而且有趣的是,它的運行與我們在很長一段時間內的歷史經歷和我們過去的經歷同步疫情前的經歷。
As Leeny pointed out in response to an earlier question, the move from sign to getting a shovel on the ground has not accelerated as much as we would like. But again, we're seeing the number of construction starts, particularly in the U.S., moving meaningfully from the bottom of the trough, albeit not quite back to where we were prior to pandemic.
正如 Leeny 在回答之前的一個問題時指出的那樣,從標誌到把鏟子放在地上的轉變並沒有像我們希望的那樣加速。但同樣,我們看到開工建設的數量,尤其是在美國,從低谷底部開始有意義地移動,儘管還沒有完全回到大流行之前的水平。
Operator
Operator
We'll take our next question from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.
我們將與 Macquarie 一起接受 Chad Beynon 的下一個問題。
Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst
Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst
First, I wanted to ask about group pace. Tony, you talked about kind of the movement to -- in the year, for the year. And kind of how that's changed over the past couple of years? So as we look out to like '24, what percentage of rooms are on the books now versus what would normally be on the books this early? And does that kind of affect how you think about RevPAR outlook?
首先,我想問一下團隊節奏。托尼,你談到了某種運動——在這一年,為了這一年。這在過去幾年中發生了怎樣的變化?因此,當我們期待 24 年時,現在預訂的房間百分比與通常這麼早預訂的房間百分比是多少?這會影響您對 RevPAR 前景的看法嗎?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Sure. So as I mentioned earlier, the group has been a real bright spot for us and not just looking backwards, but even forward. If you look at -- what we have on the books for '24 on January 1 of '23, that's about 5% ahead in gross revenue from where we were a year prior, meaning comparing that to what was on the books for '23 on January 1, 2022.
當然。因此,正如我之前提到的,該小組對我們來說是一個真正的亮點,不僅向後看,而且向前看。如果你看看——我們在 2023 年 1 月 1 日的 24 年賬簿上有什麼,總收入比去年同期高出約 5%,這意味著將其與 23 年賬簿上的相比2022 年 1 月 1 日。
And so we are pacing ahead of where we were a year ago. and we are enthused at the prospect of those numbers continuing to expand because of the in the year, for the year phenomenon that you described.
因此,我們的步伐比一年前要快。由於您所描述的年度現象,我們對這些數字繼續擴大的前景感到興奮。
Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst
Chad C. Beynon - Head of US Consumer, SVP and Senior Analyst
Okay. Great. And then something that we'll probably talk a lot more about as we get through '23, Congress has talked about a reduction in what they call surprise fees. So I guess these would -- in your industry, they could potentially hit some of the resorts on the back-end.
好的。偉大的。然後,當我們通過 23 年時,我們可能會更多地談論一些事情,國會已經討論了減少他們所謂的意外費用。所以我猜這些會 - 在你的行業中,它們可能會影響後端的一些度假村。
Can you talk about how your partners are thinking about what would happen if these below-the-line fees kind of move to above-the-line? If those would just be included in the rate or if there could be a difficult transition period if they are banned?
你能談談你的合作夥伴如何考慮如果這些線下費用轉移到線上會發生什麼嗎?如果這些只是包含在費率中,或者如果它們被禁止,是否會有一個艱難的過渡期?
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Well, as you would expect, we listened with great interest to the President's comments during the State of the Union. It appeared, if you listen to what he actually said, his concern was "hidden fees." And the manner in which we disclose resort fees or destination fees, combined with the rigorous process we have to approve the implementation of one of those fees and the requirements for a meaningful value proposition before those fees are approved, give us comfort that we have the right strategy.
好吧,正如您所料,我們非常感興趣地聽取了總統在國情咨文期間的評論。看來,如果你仔細聽他說的話,他擔心的是“隱性費用”。我們披露度假費或目的地費用的方式,加上我們必須批准其中一項費用的實施的嚴格流程,以及在批准這些費用之前對有意義的價值主張的要求,讓我們感到欣慰的是,我們有正確的策略。
The other thing I would remind you across our 8,300 hotel portfolio, I think we've got less than 300 hotels that have those sorts of fees. So in terms of materiality, it's quite impactful for those individual owners, but less impactful on a portfolio-wide basis.
在我們的 8,300 家酒店組合中,我想提醒您的另一件事是,我認為我們只有不到 300 家酒店收取此類費用。因此,就重要性而言,它對那些個人所有者影響很大,但對整個投資組合的影響較小。
Operator
Operator
We have reached the allotted time for questions. I will now turn the program back over to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.
我們已經到了規定的提問時間。我現在將把程序轉回給我們的主持人,以徵求任何補充或結束語。
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director
Well, I want to thank you again. These calls are a lot more fun to engage with you as we continue to see empirical evidence of the resilience of travel. We appreciate your thoughtful questions and look forward to seeing you on the road. Thank you.
好吧,我想再次感謝你。隨著我們繼續看到旅行彈性的經驗證據,這些電話與您互動會更有趣。感謝您提出深思熟慮的問題,並期待在路上見到您。謝謝。
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Kathleen Kelly Oberg - CFO & Executive VP of Business Operations
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
That concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。