萬豪國際 (MAR) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Marriott International's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this call may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2021財年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次電話會議可能會被錄音。 （操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jackie Burka, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在我很高興將今天的節目交給投資者關係高級副總裁傑基·伯卡 (Jackie Burka) 來主持。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Business Operations; and Tony Capuano, our Chief Executive Officer.

謝謝大家。早安，歡迎參加萬豪酒店集團2021財年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席會議的有：投資者關係副總裁貝齊·達姆；首席財務官兼業務運營執行副總裁莉妮·奧伯格；以及首席執行官托尼·卡普阿諾。

Thanks, Jackie. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I wanted to take a moment and reflect on this day, which marks the 1-year anniversary of Arne's passing. I know everyone on this call, especially our Marriott associates, miss our dear friend, an inspirational leader, a great deal. We can take comfort knowing his amazing legacy lives on in the incredible work of the thousands of people around the world who wear a Marriott name badge.

謝謝，傑基。在我們開始發言之前，我想先花一點時間緬懷一下今天，因為今天是阿恩逝世一周年紀念日。我知道在座的各位，特別是萬豪的同事們，都非常想念我們親愛的朋友，這位鼓舞人心的領導者。令人欣慰的是，他留下的寶貴遺產將透過世界各地成千上萬佩戴萬豪工牌的員工的卓越工作而得以傳承。

Let me turn the call back over to Jackie to get us underway in discussing this quarter's results.

讓我把電話交還給傑基，讓她開始討論本季的表現。

So let me quickly remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

因此，我在此簡單提醒各位，我們今天所作的許多評論並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法所界定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，具體內容已在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中闡述，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致未來的實際結果與我們評論中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿以及評論中的陳述僅對今天有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

Please also note that, unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR, occupancy and average daily rate comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and include hotels temporarily closed due to COVID-19. RevPAR occupancy and ADR comparisons between 2021 and 2019 reflect properties that are defined as comparable as of December 31, 2021, even if they were not open and fully operating for the full year 2019 or they did not meet all the other criteria for comparable in 2019.

另請注意，除非另有說明，我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)、入住率和平均每日房價 (ADR) 數據均反映的是系統範圍內可比酒店的固定匯率結果，其中包括因新冠疫情而暫時關閉的酒店。 2021 年與 2019 年的 RevPAR、入住率和 ADR 對比數據反映的是截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日被定義為可比較的酒店，即使這些酒店在 2019 年全年並未完全開放運營，或者在 2019 年不符合所有其他可比酒店的標準。

Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons to pre pandemic for 2019 are comparing the same time period in each year. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

此外，除非另有說明，所有與2019年疫情前數據的比較均指每年同一時期的數據。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及今天發言中提及的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

Tony?

托尼？

Thanks, Jackie. We're very pleased with the remarkable progress we made in 2021 across the entire global portfolio despite the ongoing challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. We finished the year on a real high note, with the emergence of Omicron having a limited impact on results in the fourth quarter.

謝謝Jackie。儘管面臨新冠疫情的持續挑戰，我們對2021年全球業務組合的顯著進展感到非常滿意。我們以非常亮眼的成績結束了這一年，Omicron的上市對第四季的業績影響有限。

In December, global ADR was 3% above 2019 levels, and occupancy for the month gained further ground compared to December of 2019, driving global RevPAR to an 11% decline versus 2019. This was a 53 percentage point improvement from the RevPAR decline in January of 2021.

12月份，全球平均房價比2019年同期水準高出3%，當月入住率較2019年12月進一步提升，導致全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）較2019年同期下降11%。這比2021年1月的RevPAR降幅改善了53個百分點。

In the fourth quarter, global RevPAR was 19% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Global occupancy for the quarter came in at 58%, 12 percentage points below 2019, while ADR was only 2% shy of 2019 levels. In the U.S. and Canada, fourth quarter RevPAR declined 15% compared to 2019. Results were driven by strong ADR, which was less than 2% below pre-pandemic levels.

第四季度，全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）較疫情前水準下降19%。該季度全球入住率為58%，比2019年同期下降12個百分點，而平均房價（ADR）僅比2019年同期水準低2%。在美國和加拿大，第四季RevPAR較2019年同期下降15%。業績主要得益於強勁的平均房價，僅比疫情前水準低不到2%。

Further strengthening of already robust leisure travel and steady improvement in the recovery of business transient and group demand also helped results. Fourth quarter group room revenue in the U.S. and Canada was down 32% versus 2019, a 9% point improvement from the third quarter decline. With booking windows still much shorter than usual, in the quarter for the quarter bookings were up 45% versus the fourth quarter of 2019.

休閒旅遊市場的進一步強勁成長，以及商務散客和團體需求的穩定復甦，也對業績起到了推動作用。美國及加拿大第四季團體客房營收年減32%，較第三季降幅收窄9個百分點。儘管預訂窗口期仍遠短於往常，但本季預訂量較2019年第四季成長了45%。

Group cancellations ticked up late last year and early this year due to Omicron mostly for arrival dates in January and February, but those cancellations have slowed more recently. New group bookings have also been gaining momentum, especially in the year for the year. In fact, just last week, Salesforce held a large company meeting in New York City that was booked just 1 month before the event. It was the largest internal meeting Salesforce has held since the start of the pandemic, with over 25,000 room nights across 11 of our properties.

去年底和今年年初，由於 Omicron 的取消，團體預訂取消量有所上升，主要集中在 1 月和 2 月的入住日期，但最近取消量有所放緩。新的團體預訂量也在穩步增長，尤其是在年內預訂方面。事實上，就在上週，Salesforce 在紐約市舉辦了一場大型公司會議，該會議的場地是在活動前一個月才預訂的。這是 Salesforce 自疫情爆發以來規模最大的內部會議，共預訂了 11 家旗下酒店的超過 25,000 個房晚。

While special corporate demand in the U.S. and Canada were still well below '19 levels, there was gradual improvement in the fourth quarter. Relative to pre-pandemic levels, bookings in the quarter were down 33%, 11% -- or excuse me, 11 percentage points better than the decline in the bookings in the third quarter. Weekly bookings around the end of last year were impacted by Omicron, but they have recovered since the trough in early January.

儘管美國和加拿大的特殊企業需求仍遠低於2019年的水平，但第四季已逐步改善。與疫情前水準相比，該季預訂量下降了33%，比第三季的降幅好11個百分點。去年年底的每週預訂量受到歐米克隆颶風的影響，但自1月初觸底以來已回升。

All of our international regions, except for Greater China, posted sequential RevPAR recovery from the third to the fourth quarter as more borders reopened and travel restrictions eased. Greater China's fourth quarter 27% RevPAR decline compared to 2019 was in line with the decline in the third quarter as their zero-COVID policy once again resulted in the lockdown of several cities.

除大中華區外，我們所有國際區域的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）均從第三季度到第四季度環比回升，這得益於更多邊境的重新開放和旅行限制的放寬。大中華區第四季RevPAR年減27%，與第三季的降幅基本一致，原因是其「零感染」政策再次導致多個城市封城。

The Middle East and Africa or MEA region performed particularly well in the fourth quarter, really demonstrating the resilience of travel demand. With relatively high vaccination rates and low travel restrictions during the quarter, the Middle East has become a safe, easy place to visit. Led by strength in the UAE, fourth quarter RevPAR in MEA rose 8% in 2019, driven by 20% higher ADR -- excuse me, 8% above '19, driven by 20% higher ADR.

中東和非洲（MEA）地區在第四季度表現尤為出色，充分展現了旅遊需求的韌性。由於該季度疫苗接種率相對較高且旅行限制較少，中東已成為一個安全且方便的旅遊目的地。在阿聯酋強勁表現的帶動下，MEA地區第四季每間可供出租客房營收（RevPAR）較2019年同期成長8%，主要得益於平均房價（ADR）上漲20%－沒錯，是較2019年同期成長8%，主要得益於平均房價上漲20%。

Fourth quarter occupancy in MEA topped 65%, the highest of our regions. Leisure demand was remarkably strong, benefiting from a significant increase in international visitors. Room nights from international guests rose nearly 60% from the third to the fourth quarter.

第四季中東及非洲地區的入住率超過65%，為各地區最高。休閒旅遊需求異常強勁，這主要得益於國際遊客數量的顯著成長。國際遊客入住晚數較第三季成長近60%。

Throughout the pandemic, strengthening our valuable loyalty platform and engaging with our Marriott Bonvoy members have been key areas of focus. In the fourth quarter of '21, 52% of room nights globally and 58% of room nights in the U.S. and Canada were booked by Bonvoy members. And global membership grew to over 160 million members at year-end, driven by strong digital sign-ups.

疫情期間，我們始終將強化我們寶貴的會員忠誠度平台以及與萬豪旅享家會員的互動作為工作重點。 2021年第四季度，全球52%的客房夜數以及美國和加拿大58%的客房夜數由萬豪旅享家會員預訂。在強勁的線上註冊推動下，全球會員總數在年底增長至超過1.6億。

Turning to development. Both room additions and signings were strong in '21 despite ongoing challenges associated with the pandemic. Despite industry-wide preconstruction and construction delays, some labor shortages and supply chain issues, we added a record 86,000 gross rooms and 517 properties leading to 6.1% gross rooms growth for the year.

再來看開發方面。儘管受到疫情持續影響，2021年客房新增量和簽約量均表現強勁。儘管整個行業普遍面臨前期建設和施工延誤、部分地區勞動力短缺以及供應鏈問題，我們仍新增了創紀錄的86,000間客房和517家酒店，全年客房總數增長6.1%。

Our global net rooms growth was 3.9%, above our previous expectation, given deletions were towards the low end of those expectations. Our deletion rate for 2021 was 2.1% or 1.2%, excluding the exit of 88 Service Properties Trust hotels.

我們的全球淨客房成長率為3.9%，高於先前預期，因為客房移除數量接近預期下限。 2021年的客房移除率為2.1%，若不計入88家Service Properties Trust飯店的退出，則為1.2%。

We are also pleased that we continue to grow our share of rooms globally. In 2021, around 15% of all global new build rooms opened under our brands compared to our year-end room share of 7%. This share is expected to continue as we had 18% of all global rooms under construction at the end of '21, more than twice our current share of open rooms.

我們很高興看到我們在全球客房市場份額持續成長。 2021年，我們品牌在全球新建客房中約佔15%，而上年末我們的市佔率為7%。預計這一份額將繼續保持成長，因為截至2021年底，我們在全球在建客房佔比高達18%，是目前已開業客房份額的兩倍多。

Our development team signed franchise and management agreements for approximately 92,000 rooms during 2021, and our year-end global pipeline totaled roughly 485,000 rooms. The composition of our pipeline dovetails nicely with current demand trends. Leisure demand has led to recovery, and we are well positioned to continue growing our lead in resort destinations, including in the high-growth, all-inclusive space.

2021年，我們的開發團隊簽署了約92,000間客房的特許經營和管理協議，年底全球在建項目總數約為485,000間客房。我們的在建項目構成與當前的需求趨勢完美契合。休閒需求的復甦帶動了市場回暖，我們已做好充分準備，繼續擴大在度假目的地（包括高成長的全包式度假領域）的領先地位。

We've also been seeing strong preference for our luxury properties. With luxury rooms accounting for more than 10% of our pipeline, we are poised to further expand our industry-leading portfolio in this valuable high-fee segment.

我們還發現，市場對我們的豪華酒店表現出了強烈的偏好。豪華客房在我們未來的專案儲備中佔比超過10%，我們已做好準備，進一步拓展我們在這高收益細分市場中領先業界的飯店組合。

Conversions were a significant growth driver in 2021, accounting for 21% of room additions and 27% of signings. With the breadth of our roster of conversion-friendly brands across chain scales and the meaningful top and bottom line benefits associated with being part of our system, we anticipate that conversions will remain an important contributor to growth over the next several years.

2021年，客房轉換率是重要的成長驅動力，佔新增客房數的21%和簽約量的27%。憑藉我們旗下眾多易於轉換的連鎖品牌，以及加入我們體系所帶來的顯著營收和利潤成長，我們預計未來幾年客房轉換率仍將是成長的重要貢獻者。

For 2022, we expect gross rooms growth to approach 5% and deletions of 1% to 1.5%, leading to anticipated net rooms growth of 3.5% to 4%. While signing activity has been picking up nicely, 2022 gross room additions are expected to be impacted by the diminished construction starts the industry has experienced throughout the pandemic, particularly here in the U.S.

我們預計2022年客房總數將成長近5%，客房減少1%至1.5%，從而預期淨客房成長率為3.5%至4%。雖然簽約活動一直在穩步回升，但預計2022年新增客房總數將受到疫情期間行業建設開工量減少的影響，尤其是在美國。

As a reminder, average construction time lines are currently around 2 years for limited-service deals and often longer for full-service deals. Yet given the improving global environment, the attractiveness of our brands, our strong development activity, our conversion momentum and our industry-leading pipeline, we are confident that over the next several years, we will return to our pre-pandemic mid-single-digit net rooms growth rate.

再次提醒，目前有限服務型飯店的平均建設週期約為兩年，而全服務型飯店則往往較長。然而，鑑於全球環境的改善、我們品牌的吸引力、強勁的開發勢頭、良好的轉化率以及行業領先的項目儲備，我們有信心在未來幾年內恢復到疫情前的中個位數淨客房增長率。

Before I turn the call over to Leeny, I did want to share a few highlights of the company's ESG efforts over the course of the year. The Board of Directors and our management team are keenly focused on these important areas as we're committed to making a positive and sustainable impact in the communities where we live and work.

在將電話轉給Leeny之前，我想先分享一下公司在過去一年中在ESG（環境、社會和治理）方面取得的一些重要進展。董事會和管理團隊高度重視這些重要領域，因為我們致力於在我們生活和工作的社區中產生積極且可持續的影響。

In June, as part of our diversity, equity and inclusion efforts, we announced we were setting new internal diversity goals for our group of Vice Presidents and above. The new targets aim to achieve global gender parity by 2023, an acceleration of our prior timetable, and to increase representation of people of color in the U.S. to 25% by 2025.

今年6月，作為我們多元化、公平性和包容性措施的一部分，我們宣佈為副總裁及以上級別的高階主管設定新的內部多元化目標。新目標旨在2023年實現全球性別平等（比我們之前的計劃提前），並力爭2025年將美國有色人種的比例提高到25%。

In July, we updated our human trafficking awareness training, which will be made widely available to the entire industry. More than 900,000 associates have now taken training in this area. And in September, we pledged to set science-based emissions reduction targets in line with the 1.5-degree Celsius emissions scenarios.

7月，我們更新了人口販運意識培訓，並將向整個產業廣泛推廣。目前已有超過90萬名員工接受了這方面的訓練。 9月，我們承諾制定符合攝氏1.5度溫控目標的科學減量目標。

As I finish my first year as CEO, I want to again thank our incredible associates for all their hard work through these challenging times. I've spent most of the last few months on the road, traveling across the U.S. from New York to Los Angeles and also abroad, and have seen firsthand their dedication to serving our guests. I'm so proud of all we've accomplished over the last year and continue to be very optimistic about our outlook for 2022 and beyond.

在我擔任執行長的第一年即將結束之際，我想再次感謝我們傑出的同事們在這段充滿挑戰的時期所付出的辛勤努力。過去幾個月的大部分時間我都在出差，足跡遍布美國各地，從紐約到洛杉磯，也去了海外，親眼見證了他們為顧客提供優質服務的奉獻精神。我對過去一年我們所取得的成就感到無比自豪，並對2022年及以後的發展前景充滿信心。

Leeny?

莉妮？

Thank you, Tony. Our fourth quarter results reflect the clear resilience of travel, our strong focus on cost containment and the benefits of our asset-light business model.

謝謝你，托尼。我們第四季的業績反映了旅遊業的強勁韌性、我們對成本控制的高度重視以及我們輕資產商業模式帶來的優勢。

Gross fee revenues reached $831 million in the fourth quarter. Our non-RevPAR-related franchise fees were again particularly strong, totaling $186 million in the fourth quarter, 19% ahead of 2019 levels, driven by robust global card spending and new account acquisitions as well as outstanding performance in our branded residential business.

第四季總費用收入達 8.31 億美元。我們的非 RevPAR 相關特許經營費再次表現強勁，第四季度總額達到 1.86 億美元，比 2019 年同期增長 19%，這主要得益於全球信用卡消費的強勁增長、新帳戶的拓展以及品牌住宅業務的出色表現。

Incentive management fees, or IMF, totaled $94 million in the quarter. Just under half of these fees were earned at resort properties, with IMF from our comparable luxury resorts up almost 45% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

本季激勵管理費（IMF）總額為9,400萬美元。其中近一半的費用來自度假村物業，而來自我們同類豪華度假村的IMF較2019年第四季增加了近45%。

Our owned and leased portfolio generated $19 million of profits, a nice increase from a loss of $50 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 as results improved at hotels in the U.S. and Europe. Our operating teams have done extraordinary work to adapt quickly and return these hotels to breakeven profitability or better despite continued lower-than-normal occupancy levels.

我們自有及租賃的酒店組合實現了1900萬美元的利潤，較2020年第四季度5000萬美元的虧損有了顯著改善，這主要得益於美國和歐洲酒店業績的提升。儘管入住率持續低於正常水平，但我們的營運團隊依然出色地完成了各項調整工作，迅速扭轉局面，使這些酒店恢復到盈虧平衡甚至盈利水平。

G&A and other expense totaled $213 million in the fourth quarter, higher than prior expectations as a result of higher compensation costs, including true-ups and higher legal expenses. For full year 2021, G&A and other came in at $823 million, 12% lower than full year 2019, reflecting ongoing savings resulting from our significant restructuring activities in 2020.

第四季一般及行政費用和其他支出總計2.13億美元，高於先前預期，主要原因是薪資成本（包括調整費用）和法律費用增加。 2021年全年一般及行政費用和其他支出為8.23億美元，較2019年全年下降12%，這反映了我們2020年重大重組活動帶來的持續成本節約。

At the hotel level, we have partnered with our owners and franchisees throughout the pandemic, working diligently to lower costs, bring down breakeven occupancy levels and drive cash flow. With the recovery well underway, we're committed to delivering consistent and positive guest experiences while keeping hotel operating costs down.

在飯店層面，我們與業主和加盟商在疫情期間緊密合作，努力降低成本，降低損益平衡入住率，並改善現金流。隨著經濟復甦穩步推進，我們致力於在保持酒店營運成本低廉的同時，為賓客提供始終如一的優質體驗。

Many of the cost reduction and productivity enhancement initiatives we put into place will be maintained as occupancies rebound. While the labor environment is slowly improving, we're keeping a close eye on wage and benefit inflation. We're optimistic that our cost reduction efforts could mitigate inflation in future years.

隨著入住率回升，我們將繼續推行許多降低成本和提高生產力的措施。雖然勞動市場環境正在緩慢改善，但我們仍密切關注薪資和福利的上漲。我們樂觀地認為，我們的成本削減措施能夠在未來幾年緩解通貨膨脹的影響。

As always, we are also carefully managing cash outlays at the corporate level. We were pleased with our cash flow generation during 2021 and with our year-end liquidity position of over $4.8 billion, which covers near-term debt maturities with significant cushion.

與以往一樣，我們也在公司層級謹慎管理現金支出。我們對2021年的現金流狀況以及年末超過48億美元的流動資金感到滿意，這足以覆蓋近期到期的債務，並留有充足的緩衝空間。

Our full year cash flows from the loyalty program were positive before considering the reduced payments received from the credit card companies. After factoring in these reduced payments, which effectively repaid around 1/3 of the total $920 million we received in 2020, loyalty cash flows were modestly negative.

在未計入信用卡公司減少的付款額之前，我們全年的忠誠度計畫現金流為正。在計入這些減少的付款額後（這些付款額實際上償還了我們2020年收到的9.2億美元總額的約三分之一），忠誠度計劃的現金流略微為負。

Looking ahead to 2022, there is still too much uncertainty and volatility to give specific RevPAR or earnings guidance. But I will again share some general observations and provide color on certain specific items where we do have some visibility.

展望2022年，目前仍有太多不確定因素和波動，因此無法給予特定的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）或獲利預測。但我將再次分享一些總體觀察，並就我們目前能夠預見的某些具體事項進行闡述。

I'll start with some thoughts on the first quarter of 2022. Omicron meaningfully impacted global group and business transient demand in January, historically the lowest occupancy month of the year. While we saw minimal disruption to leisure travel, global RevPAR for the month declined 31% compared to January of '19, primarily due to lower occupancy as rate was just 4% below 2019.

首先，我想談談2022年第一季的情況。 Omicron疫情對1月份的全球團體和商務散客需求產生了顯著影響，而1月份歷來是全年入住率最低的月份。雖然休閒旅遊受到的影響微乎其微，但當月全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）較2019年1月下降了31%，主要原因是入住率下降，而當月房價僅比2019年同期低4%。

We expect to see the recovery pace pick up nicely in February and March given weekly bookings across customer segments have now returned to pre-Omicron levels. However, with some countries reinstituting strict travel restrictions earlier this year, we could see first quarter 2022 RevPAR compared to '19 levels take a step back from the 19% decline in the fourth quarter of '21 versus 2019. We then expect significant forward progression in the global recovery each quarter through the end of the year.

我們預計，鑑於各客戶群每週預訂量已恢復至Omicron事件前的水平，2月和3月的復甦步伐將顯著加快。然而，由於部分國家在今年稍早重新實施了嚴格的旅遊限制，我們預計2022年第一季的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）與2019年同期相比，可能會出現回落，此前2021年第四季的降幅為19%。之後，我們預計全球復甦將在每季持續推進，直到年底。

Following the temporary Delta-related slowdown during the third quarter of last year, demand picked up meaningfully through the end of last year. That bolsters our optimism that by the end of the year, the 2022 fourth quarter gap to 2019 fourth quarter RevPAR will narrow meaningfully compared to the 19% decline in the fourth quarter of 2021.

繼去年第三季受達美航空影響導致的暫時性放緩之後，需求在去年年底前顯著回升。這增強了我們的樂觀預期，即到今年年底，2022年第四季與2019年第四季每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）的差距將顯著縮小，而2021年第四季則下降了19%。

As additional markets reopen and more employees return to the office, we expect robust ADR, sustained strong leisure transient demand and significant improvement in business transient and group. We also expect to see growth in trips that blend business and leisure.

隨著更多市場重新開放，以及更多員工重返辦公室，我們預計平均房價將保持強勁，休閒散客需求將持續旺盛，商務散客和團體客運量也將顯著改善。此外，我們預期商務休閒混合型旅行也將有所成長。

International travelers getting back on the road should also drive further improvement in RevPAR. In 2019, nearly 20% of global room nights were from cross-border guests. So far, most global demand during the pandemic has come from domestic visitors. Cross-border room nights in 2021 were down more than 60% compared to 2019 while domestic room nights were down 16% over the same time period.

國際旅客的回歸也將進一步提升每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）。 2019年，全球近20%的客房夜數來自跨國旅客。迄今為止，疫情期間的全球需求主要來自國內遊客。 2021年跨境客房夜數較2019年下降超過60%，而國內客房夜數同期下降16%。

Our fourth quarter performance in the Middle East illustrates how impactful the return of international travel can be. We're encouraged by the swift pickup in booking activity that we've seen in the last few weeks in places that are opening up, such as Thailand and the Cayman Islands.

我們在中東地區的第四季業績表明，國際旅行的復甦影響巨大。令人鼓舞的是，在過去幾周里，隨著泰國和開曼群島等地區逐步開放，預訂量迅速回升。

Turning to fees. At current RevPAR levels, we expect the sensitivity of a 1% change in full year '22 RevPAR versus full year '21 could be around $25 million to $30 million of fees. As we've seen, the relationship is not linear given the variability of IMF and the inclusion of non-RevPAR-related franchise fees. This sensitivity is no longer compared to 2019 as the compounding impact from new rooms growth contributions makes the comparison less relevant 3 years out.

接下來談談費用。依照目前的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）水平，我們預計2022年全年RevPAR較2021年全年變化1%可能導致費用增加約2500萬至3000萬美元。如我們所見，由於國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的波動以及包含與RevPAR無關的特許經營費，這種關係並非線性關係。由於新增客房成長帶來的複利效應，三年後的比較意義不大，因此不再將此敏感度與2019年進行比較。

In 2022, we expect continued growth from our non-RevPAR-related fees driven by higher contributions from credit card fees. We also anticipate profit growth from our owned and leased portfolio as the global environment improves.

2022年，我們預期非RevPAR相關費用將持續成長，主要得益於信用卡手續費收入的增加。同時，隨著全球經濟環境的改善，我們預期自有及租賃物業組合的利潤也將成長。

For the full year, interest expense net is anticipated to be roughly $350 million, and our core tax rate is expected to be around 23%. G&A and other expenses could total $860 million to $880 million, still well below 2019 levels but higher on a year-over-year basis primarily due to higher compensation costs and assumed higher travel expenses.

預計全年淨利息支出約3.5億美元，核心稅率預計約23%。一般及行政費用和其他費用總計可能在8.6億美元至8.8億美元之間，雖然仍遠低於2019年的水平，但同比有所上升，主要原因是薪酬成本增加和預計差旅費用增加。

As always, driving cash flow will be a priority in 2022. We anticipate full year investment spending of $600 million to $700 million, which includes roughly $250 million for maintenance capital in our new headquarters. We expect cash flows from loyalty to be slightly positive in 2022 before factoring in the reduced payments received from the credit card companies.

與以往一樣，提升現金流將是2022年的首要任務。我們預計全年投資支出為6億至7億美元，其中包括約2.5億美元用於新總部的維護與建設。在未計入信用卡公司付款減少的影響之前，我們預計2022年忠誠度計畫帶來的現金流量將略微為正。

We made great progress in improving our credit ratios during 2021 and remain focused on bringing our leverage in line with our target of 3 to 3.5x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA. Assuming the recovery continues largely as anticipated, we could be in a position to restart capital returns in the back half of 2022.

2021年，我們在改善信貸比率方面取得了顯著進展，並將繼續致力於將槓桿率控制在3至3.5倍調整後債務與調整後EBITDA比率的目標範圍內。假設經濟復甦基本上如預期進行，我們預期在2022年下半年重啟資本回報。

We would likely begin by paying a dividend with a payout ratio a bit below our traditional 30%. We can then see more meaningful levels of capital returns, including share repurchases, along with dividends in 2023 and beyond.

我們可能會先以略低於傳統30%的股利發放率開始發放股利。然後，我們可以在2023年及以後看到更有意義的資本回報，包括股票回購以及派發股息。

Over the last 2 years, our business has been tested in ways we never could have imagined. We're incredibly proud of how our teams have adapted and how well our company has performed. We made significant progress in 2021 and are excited about continued recovery and our growth opportunities ahead.

過去兩年，我們的業務經歷了前所未有的考驗。我們為團隊的適應力和公司所取得的優異成績感到無比自豪。 2021年，我們取得了顯著進展，並對未來的持續復甦和成長機會充滿信心。

Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

托尼和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。接線生？

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from Shaun Kelley with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利提出的問題。

So Tony, I just wanted to start with development activity. So thank you for the net unit growth guidance, and I think it makes sense relative to where we are in the development cycle. I sort of wanted to get your sense a little bit longer term.

托尼，我想先談談開發活動。謝謝你提供的淨單位成長預期，我認為就我們目前所處的開發週期階段而言，這個預期是合理的。我更想了解你對更長遠發展前景的看法。

Do you think this is the bottom, and these levels are pretty sustainable just given where we are in the broader kind of CapEx and development cycle? Or do you think 2020 -- just help us think through maybe 2023? And are the levels, again, going to be consistent with that? Could we even be a little bit better? Or do we need to be cautious there just given the timing on openings in full service?

您認為這是底部嗎？考慮到我們目前所處的資本支出和發展週期階段，這些水準是否相當可持續？或者您認為2020年－或許可以幫助我們展望2023年？屆時的水平是否會維持不變？我們甚至有可能做得更好嗎？或者考慮到全面開放的時間安排，我們是否需要謹慎一點？

Thanks, Shaun. Well, as we've said the last couple of quarters, the ripple effects of the pandemic create less visibility beyond '22 than we might like. With that said, I think you heard the momentum on signings in my prepared remarks. We continue to see good volume on the conversion front.

謝謝肖恩。正如我們過去幾季所說，疫情的連鎖反應使得2022年後的前景比我們預期的要不明朗。話雖如此，我想你從我事先準備好的發言稿中已經聽到了簽約方面的良好勢頭。我們在球員轉換方面也持續保持著不錯的勢頭。

In the short term, obviously, we've got a bit of challenges in terms of construction starts, particularly in the U.S. But in some ways, that causes us to think about it as a when, not an if. And in fact, one of the statistics we look at most closely is fallout from the pipeline.

短期來看，顯然我們在開工時面臨一些挑戰，尤其是在美國。但在某種程度上，這促使我們思考的是何時開工，而不是是否開工。事實上，我們最關注的統計數據之一就是管道造成的污染。

If we were seeing wholesale project cancellations, that might cause us to think differently about the medium to long term. But in fact, what we saw in 2021 was about 6.5% lower than our average fallout over the last decade.

如果出現大規模專案取消的情況，可能會促使我們重新思考中長期發展。但事實上，2021 年的專案取消率比過去十年的平均值低了約 6.5%。

Really encouraging. And then maybe just as my follow-up, your comment on the RevPAR cadence, Leeny, in your prepared remarks, was interesting as we get to kind of the 4Q '22 area. Just any possibility that we could actually see maybe a month or a point in 2022 where we actually return to 2019 levels of RevPAR? Or kind of what's your sense about that cadence? That's it for me.

真是令人鼓舞。然後，我想補充一點，Leeny，您在準備好的發言稿中提到的RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）波動情況很有意思，尤其是在我們即將進入2022年第四季度的時候。我們是否有可能在2022年的某個月份或某個時間點看到RevPAR恢復到2019年的水平？或者您對這個波動情況有什麼看法？我的問題就這些。

So thanks very much. And it is interesting. When you look at December, for example, the U.S. and Canada in the month of December was really -- was down only 6 percentage points compared to 2019. So it is absolutely the case that you could see, depending on the mix of business and exactly how countries open up and kind of the classic occupancy from a seasonal pattern standpoint.

非常感謝。這很有意思。例如，看看12月份，美國和加拿大的入住率實際上只比2019年下降了6個百分點。所以，確實存在這種情況：入住率會受到商業組合、各國開放程度以及季節性模式等因素的影響。

I could imagine that it's possible that you have that happen, Shaun. I think, though, so much of this really depends on the global picture in terms of the pace of the recovery. So you need lots of things happening on all the points of business, not just leisure, but also special corporate as well as group to see us get to that delightful place.

肖恩，我能想像這種情況可能會發生。不過，我認為這很大程度取決於全球經濟復甦的步伐。所以，我們需要在商業的各個方面都取得進展，不僅是休閒娛樂，還包括企業和集團層面，才能最終實現我們夢寐以求的目標。

But at the same time, I think we feel great about the momentum. The other comment I'll make is when you see countries open up their restrictions, the kind of jolt that our reservation centers feel is impressive. And I do think that momentum gives us confidence that we could see this resilience continue to build.

但同時，我對目前的勢頭感到非常滿意。我還想補充一點，當看到各國逐步解除限制時，我們預訂中心所感受到的衝擊令人印象深刻。而且我認為，這種勢頭讓我們有信心，這種韌性能夠持續增強。

And we will take our next question from Robin Farley with UBS.

接下來，我們將回答瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley 提出的問題。

Great. Just thinking about the visibility of recovery. Can you give us some insight into what group bookings for the second half look like? Because understandably, of course, Q1 would have been very disrupted by Omicron.

太好了。我正在考慮復甦的可見性。能否透露一下下半年的團體預約狀況？因為可以理解的是，第一季肯定受到了 Omicron 的影響。

But for second half, how is that compared to 2019 levels in terms of -- it seems like, at some point, there should be an accumulation of groups that haven't met in a while, and that, that should start to look good. And I'm just wondering if you can see that turning point yet in your future group bookings.

但就下半年而言，與2019年的水準相比如何？似乎在某個時候，應該會累積一些一段時間沒聚會的團體，而這應該會開始好轉。我只是想知道您是否已經看到了未來團體預訂的轉折點。

Yes. Thanks, Robin. And maybe I'll refresh some of the data that we shared with you last quarter. I'm going to give you some comparisons between -- at the end of '19, what we saw is definite bookings on the books for '20 and '21 and how that compares at the end of '21 what we see on the books for '22 and '23.

是的，謝謝，羅賓。我或許會更新一下上個季度我們和你分享的一些數據。我會給你做一些對比——2019年底我們看到的2020年和2021年的確定預訂量，以及2021年底我們看到的2022年和2023年的預訂量。

So at the end of December of '21, as we looked at definite bookings for '22, we were down just a shade under 22% compared to end of '19 for '20. When we look at what's on the books for '23 at the end of 2021, we're down just a shade under 15% versus what we had on the books at the end of '19 for 2021. And so to your specific question, we are seeing steady and encouraging forward bookings in the group segment.

因此，在2021年12月底，當我們查看2022年的確定預訂量時，與2019年底的2020年預訂量相比，下降了略低於22%。當我們查看2021年底的2023年預訂量時，與2019年底的2021年預訂量相比，下降了略低於15%。所以，對於您提出的具體問題，我們看到團體預訂量穩定且令人鼓舞。

And the other thing I would point out, Robin, you heard in my prepared remarks the comment about that big piece of Salesforce business that was booked just 1 month before. We expect to continue to see improvement from the levels I just described to you because we're seeing more short-term bookings, and that's been the trend over the last number of weeks and months.

還有一點我想指出，羅賓，你剛才在我準備好的發言稿裡也聽到了，我提到一個月前剛剛敲定的那筆Salesforce大訂單。我們預計業績會繼續提升，因為我們看到短期訂單越來越多，而且這在過去幾週和幾個月裡一直都是這種趨勢。

Just to add one point, Robin. When you look at Q1, understandably, with Omicron, clearly, you're looking at a weaker group picture than you are as you get into Q3, which is meaningfully better. So your point is well taken that it should move as we go through the year. And I think the other part that is just fantastic is that rate, both in '22 and '23, already, from what's on the books, is up 3% to 4%.

羅賓，我再補充一點。第一季度，考慮到奧密克戎集團的情況，很明顯，集團整體實力不如第三季度，而第三季度的情況則明顯好轉。所以你的觀點很有道理，隨著時間的推移，情況應該會有所改善。我認為另一個非常棒的方面是，根據目前已公佈的數據，2022年和2023年的利率已經上漲了3%到4%。

Okay. Great. No, that's helpful. And then just one follow-up question is in terms of the visibility of just sort of business transient or transient in total, has that moved out? And I know it's tough after the last 6 weeks because maybe it was moving out and now contracted a little bit.

好的，太好了。這很有幫助。還有一個後續問題，關於商務旅客或整體旅客的可見度，是否有所改善？我知道過去六週情況比較特殊，因為可能之前旅客數量減少，現在有所下降。

But how far in advance -- I feel like, pre pandemic, you used to talk about a 30-day booking window, and maybe last year, it was like a 7-day booking window. So just wondering if you're seeing transient a little more visibility or a little bit of improvement in the pace of that?

但是提前多久預訂比較適合呢？我覺得疫情前，你們通常說的是30天的預訂窗口期，去年好像是7天。所以我想知道，現在短期住宿的預訂情況是否有所改善，或者預訂速度是否有所加快？

So the booking window has extended, but it is not the way it was back in 2019. So it's improved, but it is still the case that we're not back to where we are.

所以預訂窗口期延長了，但與 2019 年的情況不同了。情況有所改善，但我們仍然沒有恢復到之前的水平。

And I think, clearly, in Q1, Robin, January is a great example, where you saw special corporate particularly weaker with what was going on with Omicron. So I think part of this, you're going to see it get -- see more visibility as we get further and further into the year, but it is a bit better than it was in 2020.

顯然，羅賓，1月份的情況就是一個很好的例子，當時由於Omicron事件的影響，特殊企業業務表現特別疲軟。所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會逐漸明朗，但目前比2020年要好一些。

And Robin, let me just give you a little more granular information to try to address your question. This is a global number. But if you look at the global booking window, it really got the shortest in the second quarter of 2020, where it was down to 5 years.

羅賓，為了回答你的問題，我再提供一些更詳細的資訊。這是一個全球數據。但如果你看一下全球預訂窗口期，你會發現它在2020年第二季達到了最短，當時縮短到了5年。

5 days.

5天。

Excuse me, 5 days. If you look at fourth quarter of 2021, it had risen to about 17 days. So to Leeny's point, certainly not back to where we were pre pandemic but trending in the right direction.

不好意思，是5天。如果你看看2021年第四季，這個數字已經上升到大約17天。所以正如Leeny所說，雖然肯定還沒有恢復到疫情前的水平，但正在朝著正確的方向發展。

We will take our next question from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將回答摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出的問題。

Throughout much of last year, leisure demand was fairly inelastic to rate in the industry's tough -- fairly robust rate gain, as you alluded to this morning. Can you talk about leisure price elasticity, thus far, in 2022 and in your forward bookings?

去年大部分時間裡，休閒旅遊需求對價格的彈性相對較低，而旅遊業的價格卻出現了相當強勁的成長，正如您今天早上所提到的。您能否談談2022年至今的休閒旅遊價格彈性以及您未來的預訂情況？

And are there any changes relative to last year, i.e., are you seeing demand become more sensitive to further ratings? Maybe more pronounced in markets or chain-scale segments, where service levels might be constrained by labor availabilities?

與去年相比，情況是否有任何變化？例如，您是否發現需求對進一步的評級更加敏感？這種現像在服務水準可能受勞動力供給限制的市場或連鎖規模細分市場中是否更為明顯？

Of course. Obviously, we're early in the year. But maybe a good indication that addresses your question as we gear up for President's Day weekend here at the end of the week, this is a U.S. data, but the RevPAR numbers are pacing up about 12% ahead of where we were in '19 for Friday through Sunday. And to your specific question about pricing power, ADR is pacing up about 20% versus '19.

當然。顯然，現在才年初。但或許有一個指標可以很好地回答您的問題，尤其是在我們即將迎來本週末的總統日假期之際。這是美國的數據，但截至週五至週日，每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）比2019年同期成長了約12%。至於您提到的定價能力，平均房價（ADR）比2019年同期成長了約20%。

Great. And then a follow-up question on new development. Can you talk about the cadence of net rooms growth or net rooms growth rate this year? Is it even throughout the year? Is it more heavy in the second half? And lastly, how does the full-service, select-service mix of net room development in '22 compare to that mix the last couple of years?

好的。接下來我想問一個關於新開發案的問題。您能談談今年淨客房成長的節奏或成長率嗎？全年成長是否均衡？下半年是否成長更快？最後，2022年全服務飯店和精選服務飯店的淨客房成長比例與過去幾年相比如何？

Of course. What I will tell you is pretty consistent for the last decade or more is our transactors, they are a big fourth quarter team. We tend to see a big pop in signings volume in the fourth quarter.

當然。我可以告訴你的是，過去十年來，我們的交易員一直都是第四季的大動作。我們往往在第四季看到簽約數量大幅成長。

But because our conversion volume was meaningfully higher in '21 versus history, when you have a deal like Sunwing, which I think was in the second quarter, that can impact the quarter-to-quarter numbers. But fourth quarter tends to be the biggest volume of signups.

但由於2021年我們的轉換率顯著高於歷史平均水平，所以像Sunwing這樣的交易（我記得是在第二季）可能會對季度環比數據產生影響。不過，第四季通常是註冊量最大的季度。

And for openings, Joe, I think we definitely saw in Q4 of this year that you clearly saw a bunch of owners wanted to get ahead of this recovery that's moving forward. So we had a great fourth quarter. But we have traditionally -- it's been fairly steady, unless there is a certain group of hotels that have all kind of come on at the same time.

至於酒店開業，喬，我認為我們在今年第四季確實看到，很多業主都想搶在復甦浪潮到來之前開業。所以我們第四季業績非常出色。但通常情況下，除非某些特定類型的飯店同時開業，否則開業數量一直都比較穩定。

So I would say, we've always tended to have some quarter-to-quarter variations, but that should march forward fairly squarely throughout the quarters on the openings side. I guess, the only other thing to point out is just a reminder that construction for a limited-service hotel takes, broadly speaking, 2 years, and full-service takes longer.

所以我想說，我們一直以來都存在一些季度間的波動，但開業初期各季度的業績應該會比較穩定。另外要指出的是，一般來說，建造一家有限服務型飯店需要兩年時間，而全服務型飯店則需要更長時間。

So as you'd start to think about 2020 and recognize that as you get into Q3 of 2020, you were in the depths of the pandemic and starting to really see the impact on construction starts. That will start to obviously then have an impact as you go into '22.

所以，當你開始回顧2020年，並意識到進入2020年第三季時，疫情正處於最嚴重時期，建築開工量開始真正受到影響時，你就會明白，這種影響顯然會持續到2022年。

We will take our next question from Thomas Allen with JPMorgan -- I'm sorry, from Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將回答來自摩根大通（抱歉，是摩根士丹利）的托馬斯·艾倫提出的問題。

So your non-RevPAR fees have been really encouraging. And Leeny, thanks for the commentary that you expect growth in 2022. Can you just give us a little bit more color there?

所以你們的非RevPAR費用表現非常令人鼓舞。 Leeny，感謝你提到預計2022年會成長。能再詳細解釋一下嗎？

I think I calculated that your 2021 non-RevPAR fees are about 15% above 2019 levels. What's giving you the confidence that, that should continue to grow?

我計算了一下，您2021年的非RevPAR費用比2019年水準高出約15%。是什麼讓您確信這一數字會持續成長？

Yes. So first of all, thanks very much. Just as a reminder that our credit card fees make up roughly 2/3 of our non-RevPAR-related fees. And so obviously, that's a big driver. They ended up, up 4% over 2019 levels for the full year in '21. And that was with really quite a weak Q1 as we were still in the heaviest part of the pandemic.

是的。首先，非常感謝。提醒一下，我們的信用卡手續費約佔非RevPAR相關費用的三分之二。顯然，這是一個重要的驅動因素。 2021年全年，信用卡手續費比2019年同期成長了4%。而且，這還是在疫情最嚴重的時期，第一季業績相當疲軟的情況下取得的。

So as we continue to see great card acquisitions and credit card average spend, I think we feel very good about those. I think residential branding fees, that business has been doing extremely well. And we expect to continue to see strong openings of those, which is when we get the fees.

因此，隨著信用卡用戶數量和信用卡平均消費持續成長，我們對這些方面感到非常樂觀。我認為住宅品牌推廣費業務表現特別出色。我們預計該業務將繼續保持強勁成長勢頭，屆時我們將收到相關費用。

And then we continue to have application and relicensing fees as, obviously, our business continues to grow on the franchise side. So we feel quite confident in the growth of that fee stream based on a continued strong economy.

此外，隨著特許經營業務的持續成長，我們也將繼續收取申請費和續約許可費。因此，基於經濟的持續強勁成長，我們對這部分費用收入的成長充滿信心。

And just a follow-up, Leeny. Not asking for 2023 guidance, but there is some -- when we think about starts, right, like there is some impact from openings and close -- sorry, there is some impact with starts not only the [non], but like for residential branding fees, for example. Does that look like it's going to continue to grow as you go past 2022?

Leeny，我還有一個後續問題。我不是想了解2023年的市場預測，但有些事情——比如我們考慮開工量的時候，開工量和倒閉量都會產生影響——抱歉，開工量不僅會受到非住宅項目的影響，還會受到住宅品牌推廣費等因素的影響。您認為這種情況在2022年之後還會持續成長嗎？

No, that's a good reminder, actually, Thomas, to remember that while we do get annual management fees, that is the smaller part of the fee stream that we get from residential. And those are overwhelmingly onetime fees that we get when the unit is ready for occupancy.

不，湯瑪斯，這確實是個很好的提醒，要記住雖然我們每年都會收到管理費，但這只是我們從住宅物業收入中很小的一部分。而且，住宅物業收入絕大部分都是一次性費用，在房屋可以入住時收取。

So in that regard, even in '22, I would expect our fees to be a little bit lower than they were in '21. Because in '21, it was -- we just had so many sales in residential. So I expect them to be a bit lower, although still meaningfully higher than our traditional levels of residential branding fees.

因此，就此而言，即使到了2022年，我預計我們的費用也會比2021年略低。因為2021年，我們的住宅銷售量非常大。所以我預計費用會略低一些，但仍會比我們傳統的住宅品牌推廣費用水平高出不少。

And yes, you're right. They're lumpy because you can have 1 unit of 100 units that goes into sales and closes literally within a quarter or 2, and then another one might not happen for 2 more quarters. So it is likely to be lumpy. And again, overall, we're really pleased with new signings that we're getting in the residential branded business. So I think you'll continue to see that business grow very nicely.

是的，您說得對。銷售數據波動較大，因為可能有一套100套的住宅項目，其中一套可能在一個季度或兩個季度內就售出並完成交易，而另一套可能要再過兩個季度才會成交。所以，銷售數據波動在所難免。不過，總的來說，我們對住宅品牌業務的新簽約情況非常滿意。因此，我認為這項業務將繼續保持良好的成長勢頭。

We will take our next question from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes 提出的問題。

Great. Tony, I have a question and a follow-up question. Tony, my first question, a high-level question. Last year, in March and April, we certainly saw a very large acceleration in U.S. leisure demand. And what that means is we certainly have a very tough comp for U.S. leisure demand coming up.

好的。東尼，我有一個問題和一個後續問題。東尼，我的第一個問題，一個比較宏觀的問題。去年三、四月份，我們確實看到美國休閒需求出現了非常大的成長。這意味著，今年美國休閒需求的基數肯定非常高。

As far as your intuition, Tony, do you think U.S. leisure demand, once we hit those tough comps in April onwards, could actually eclipse last year's very strong levels? Just curious what you think about that.

東尼，以你的直覺來看，你認為一旦我們進入4月份那些艱難的同比時期，美國的休閒旅遊需求真的有可能超過去年非常強勁的水平嗎？我只是好奇你對此有何看法。

Of course. Thanks, Patrick. Well, we continue to be really optimistic that there's still a significant tailwind for leisure demand. And I think part of that is because of the evolution of the way folks work. The incremental flexibility that you're seeing in working from home, working from anywhere, has been an accelerant for leisure demand. And if anything, we expect further acceleration in that regard.

當然。謝謝你，派崔克。我們仍然非常樂觀地認為，休閒需求依然強勁。我認為部分原因是人們工作方式的轉變。居家辦公、遠距辦公等工作方式的日益普及，加速了休閒需求的成長。而且，我們預期這方面的需求還會進一步成長。

And then when we look at our forward bookings, we already have more leisure on the books for months further out than we did in the same months last year. So we continue to be quite bullish on accelerated growth in leisure. And remember, leisure was already growing much more rapidly than business transient even pre pandemic.

然後，當我們查看未來的預訂情況時，會發現我們未來幾個月的休閒旅遊預訂量已經超過了去年同期。因此，我們仍然非常看好休閒旅遊的加速成長。而且別忘了，即使在疫情爆發之前，休閒旅遊的成長速度也遠遠超越商務旅行。

And maybe the last part of my answer would be, you heard Leeny talk a little bit about how modest cross-border travel has been. We've really only seen domestic leisure travel. And as more and more borders open, we think that influx of international leisure travel will also serve to accelerate the pace of leisure demand growth.

我答案的最後一部分可能是，您可能也聽到了Leeny剛才談到的跨境旅行規模仍然有限。我們目前看到的主要是國內休閒旅行。隨著越來越多的邊境開放，我們認為國際休閒旅行的湧入也將有助於加速休閒需求的成長。

Okay. That's definitely encouraging, and good points on the international. Shifting gears on my follow-up question here. Certainly, it's been tough sledding for the hotel industry in China due to the zero-COVID policy. With RevPAR really still significantly down in China, have you seen that -- any impact on your pipeline given how much the -- in China, given how much the industry is struggling in China?

好的。這確實令人鼓舞，而且您對國際市場的觀點也很有道理。接下來我想問一個後續問題。當然，由於中國實施的「零新冠」政策，飯店業在中國舉步維艱。鑑於中國酒店業目前面臨的困境，RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）仍然大幅下降，您是否注意到這對您的銷售管道產生了影響？

That's a good question. But thankfully, the answer is no. We continue to see really strong momentum, both on the signings and the openings front. And I think, in many ways, our owners and partners in China are the mirror image of our owners and partners in other areas of the world.

問得好。但令人欣慰的是，答案是否定的。我們在簽約和新店開業方面都持續保持強勁勢頭。而且我認為，在許多方面，我們在中國的業主和合作夥伴與我們在世界其他地區的業主和合作夥伴如出一轍。

They don't try to time the market for the next quarter or 2. They tend to be long-term investors. Many of the projects that are getting done are parts of larger mixed-use projects. And the hotel components, in some ways, define those projects, so they are critically important. So we've not seen any sort of meaningful slum down, quite the contrary. We continue to see really strong demand for our brands from a development perspective across China.

他們不會試圖預測未來一、兩個季度的市場走勢。他們傾向於長期投資。許多正在進行的項目都是大型綜合用途項目的一部分。酒店部分在某種程度上定義了這些項目，因此至關重要。所以我們沒有看到任何明顯的衰退，恰恰相反。從發展的角度來看，我們持續看到中國市場對我們品牌的強勁需求。

Okay. Good to hear. Go ahead.

好的，那就好。請繼續。

Just one quick follow-up for you -- one quick follow-up for you on that. When you look at how many rooms we've currently got in Greater China, it's around 140,000. And our pipeline is only about 20% to 25% less than that for the pipeline for Greater China. So it's really -- you're looking at doubling that business potentially in not too long.

我還有一個後續問題要跟進。目前我們在大中華區擁有約14萬間客房。而我們大中華區的在建工程數量僅比這個數字少20%到25%。所以，我們很有可能在不久的將來將業務量翻倍。

We will take our next question from Smedes Rose with Citigroup.

接下來，我們將回答來自花旗集團的斯梅德斯·羅斯提出的問題。

I wanted to just circle back on your commentary around conversion activity, which, I think, you said was about 18,000 rooms in '21. And I know you had said that you think it will continue to be strong.

我想再補充一下您之前關於客房轉換活動的評論，我記得您說過2021年客房轉換量約為18000間。我知道您也說過您認為這一趨勢將繼續保持強勁。

But can you maybe just -- do you think it can surpass what you saw in '21? And maybe you can talk a little bit about where you're seeing the conversions coming from on a regional basis. Is it mostly U.S.? Or...

但您能否談談—您認為它能超越2021年的表現嗎？您能否也談談您觀察到的轉換率區域分佈？主要是美國嗎？還是…

Sure. So I will remind you that one of the most significant contributors to our conversion volume in '21 was the conversion of about 7,000 all-inclusive rooms in the Caribbean with Sunwing. And I raised that not to apologize. Those sorts of large portfolio conversion opportunities are a meaningful part of our strategy and something that we'll continue to look for.

當然。所以我要提醒各位，2021年我們轉換業務量最大的貢獻之一，是與Sunwing合作，在加勒比海地區轉換了約7000間全包式客房。我提起這件事並非為了道歉。這類大規模的投資組合轉換機會是我們策略的重要組成部分，也是我們將繼續尋找的目標。

But in terms of baseline conversions, we are seeing elevated interest from the owner and franchise community for our brands. And so we expect to see really strong volume continuing into 2022 and beyond.

但就基礎轉換率而言，我們看到業主和加盟商對我們品牌的興趣顯著提升。因此，我們預計強勁的銷售動能將持續到2022年及以後。

And as we talk with our owners and franchisees, not only do they like the flexibility of some of our soft brands, they like the fact that we've got conversion-friendly platforms across multiple chain scales. And they are focused not just on the ability of the company's revenue engines to drive top line revenue, but also some of the margin efficiencies that result from affiliation with our brands.

在與業主和加盟商交流的過程中，我們發現他們不僅欣賞我們部分軟性品牌的靈活性，也喜歡我們擁有跨多個連鎖規模、轉換率高的平台。他們關注的不僅是公司營收引擎提升營收的能力，還有與我們品牌合作帶來的利潤率提升。

And Smedes, just as a reminder, 27% of our signings in 2021 were for conversions. One of the things that's been really gratifying to see is a number of owners who want to do a conversion, but with meaningful investment in the property.

斯梅德斯，再次提醒一下，我們2021年簽約的計畫中，有27%是改建計畫。令人欣慰的是，許多業主都想進行改建，並且願意對房產進行實質的投資。

Yes, and I think that's a great point.

是的，我覺得你說得很有道理。

They may take 12 months to actually get open, but they're turning it into a beautiful representation of one of our brands and putting meaningful investment in it. So whether it opens specifically in '22 or '23, it's all going to be great for our guests and, frankly, for our associates and for the owners.

雖然可能需要12個月才能真正開業，但他們正在將其打造成我們品牌的完美代表，並投入了大量資金。所以，無論具體是在2022年還是2023年開業，這對我們的顧客、員工以及業主來說都將是件好事。

And that 27%, Smedes, was about 10 percentage points higher than what we saw in the signings in '20 and in '19.

斯梅德斯，27% 這個數字比我們在 2020 年和 2019 年的簽約中看到的簽約率高出約 10 個百分點。

Great. And then I just wanted to ask you, when we were out at [Atlas] meeting, we met with a lot of owners. And there continues to be a lot of discussion, as you guys have commented on as well, of helping to reduce their costs being affiliated with large brands.

好的。我還想問一下，我們在[Atlas]會議上，和很多業主見面了。正如你們也提到的，大家一直在討論如何幫助他們降低與大品牌合作的成本。

And I'm just wondering, do you think there's a lot more to go there? Or do you feel like your sort of streamlining of brand standards are changing sort of customer expectations is kind of reset now? Or how is that sort of relationship sort of panning out? I mean, we heard, frankly, like just a broad range of commentary. Just wondering how you're seeing it from your side.

我只是想問，您覺得這方面還有很多發展空間嗎？或者您覺得您簡化品牌標準的做法正在改變客戶的期望，現在這種改變是否已經重塑了？或者說，這種關係目前進展如何？坦白說，我們聽到了各種各樣的評論。我想知道您對此有何看法。

Sure. So I think, first of all, I think the partnership during the pandemic between us and our owners and franchisees have never been better in terms of trying to manage these dramatically lower occupancy levels. And as I said in my comments, I think there is quite a bit of the savings that we put into place that is permanent, that will mean kind of significantly lower costs and significantly better productivity as we move forward.

當然。首先，我認為在疫情期間，我們與業主和加盟商之間的合作從未如此緊密，尤其是在應對入住率大幅下降的情況下。正如我剛才所說，我們實施的許多節約措施都是永久性的，這意味著未來我們將顯著降低成本並顯著提高生產力。

Now as you know, we've got the reality that for more complex hotels, there is a much higher percentage of costs that are labor-related. And we're obviously seeing a lot of pressure on that side, just like every other industry in the U.S. So there, we are -- we will continue to find ways to try to improve the margins.

如您所知，對於更複雜的酒店而言，勞動力成本佔比更高。顯然，我們在這方面面臨著巨大的壓力，就像美國其他所有行業一樣。因此，我們將繼續尋找提高利潤率的方法。

Rising occupancy, obviously, always ultimately helps you when you're spreading costs at a hotel. But it also means you've also got to make sure to have enough people there to deliver the service that our guests expect. And we are committed to making sure that we deliver those experiences that bring them back to our hotels over and over.

入住率上升顯然最終對飯店分攤成本大有裨益。但這同時也意味著，我們必須確保有足夠的人手來提供客人期望的服務。我們致力於提供這樣的體驗，讓客人一次又一次地光臨我們的酒店。

And then the last thing I'll mention is just the great part about our business is we do reprice our rooms every day. And so when you think about what's been going on with our ADR, that has been a fabulous mitigation of what's been going on the labor cost side. So we will certainly continue to find new ways, but we are determined to make sure to deliver what our customers want.

最後我想提一下，我們業務的一大優勢在於我們每天都會重新調整客房價格。因此，考慮到我們平均房價的變化，這極大地緩解了人工成本上漲的影響。我們當然會繼續尋找新的方法，但我們決心確保滿足客戶的需求。

We will take our next question from Michael Bellisario with Baird.

接下來，我們將回答貝爾德公司的麥可貝利薩裡奧提出的問題。

Just a question for you on loyalty in -- and your top customers. Maybe help us understand how are they spending today versus pre-pandemic levels? And then when you think about the lifetime value of that, say, top-tier platinum customer, has your view changed on who that customer is, who that platinum customer is on a go-forward basis?

我有一個關於客戶忠誠度的問題想請教您，特別是關於您的頂級客戶。能否請您幫我們了解他們目前的消費水準與疫情前相比有何變化？另外，當您考慮頂級白金客戶的終身價值時，您對這類客戶的定義，以及未來白金客戶的特徵是否有所改變？

Michael, sorry. You're breaking up. Can you start the question from the beginning?

邁克爾，抱歉。你的問題要斷斷續續了。你能從頭開始問嗎？

Can you hear me better?

你能聽得更清楚些嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Just a question for you on loyalty and your top-tier customers. How are they spending today? And where are they spending differently versus pre-pandemic levels? And then when you think about lifetime value, say, of a top-tier platinum customer, has your view changed on who that customer is going forward, given the changes in travel patterns today?

關於客戶忠誠度和頂級客戶，我有個問題想請教您。他們現在的消費狀況如何？與疫情前相比，他們的消費領域有哪些不同？考慮到如今旅行模式的變化，您對頂級白金客戶的終身價值有何看法？您對未來這類客戶群的定位是否有改變？

Okay. I said -- Mike, I apologize, you were breaking up a little bit. I think I heard your question. I think maybe our penetration rates, especially in the U.S., are maybe the best indication. We were back to 57% penetration in the fourth quarter, which is almost back to where we were pre pandemic. So we're quite encouraged about the penetration rates, the passion and the enthusiasm we see within the Bonvoy base and, as you heard in my prepared remarks, the pace at which the program continues to grow.

好的。我說——麥克，抱歉，你剛才有點斷斷續續的。我想我聽到你的問題了。我認為，我們的滲透率，尤其是在美國的滲透率，或許是最好的指標。第四季我們的滲透率回升至57%，幾乎恢復到了疫情前的水準。因此，我們對滲透率、萬豪旅享家會員的熱情和積極性，以及正如你從我事先準備好的發言稿中聽到的，該計劃持續快速增長感到非常鼓舞。

And I think one of the really exciting things for us was, as our credit card platforms continue to grow, they really gave us a unique opportunity to stay engaged with those most valuable Bonvoy customers, even when they had hit the pause button on the volume of travel they experienced prior to the start of the pandemic.

我認為真正讓我們感到興奮的事情之一是，隨著我們的信用卡平台不斷發展壯大，它們確實為我們提供了一個獨特的機會，讓我們能夠與那些最有價值的萬豪旅享家客戶保持聯繫，即使在疫情爆發之前，他們的旅行量已經大幅減少。

And just to add fuel to Tony's fire, I'll mention 2 things. Number one, we have started doing credit card programs in other countries and found them to be really well received by the customers and seeing nice card acquisitions on that front. And then also, just when you think about the growth in our digital share, and that is very much tied to the Bonvoy platform.

為了讓托尼的論點火上加油，我再補充兩點。第一，我們已經在其他國家開展信用卡項目，發現這些項目非常受客戶歡迎，而且信用卡業務也取得了不錯的成長。第二，想想我們數位業務份額的成長，這與萬豪旅享家平台密切相關。

And when you look at our digital share compared to '19, the share of reservations has gone up almost 500 basis points on our digital channel. And overall, we've grown up 300 basis points in our direct channels, up to 76%. So I think that all ties very well into the power of Bonvoy.

與 2019 年相比，我們的數位化通路份額成長了近 500 個基點。整體而言，我們的直接通路份額也成長了 300 個基點，達到 76%。我認為這一切都充分體現了萬豪旅享家的強大實力。

And we will take our next question from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將回答理查克拉克和伯恩斯坦提出的問題。

Just first, just following up from some of the questions you've had already on inflation, and particularly with regard to your incentive fees and the owned and leased portfolio profitability. If we get a full RevPAR recovery kind of into 2023, is that enough to get the incentive fees back to pre-pandemic levels?

首先，我想就您之前提出的一些關於通貨膨脹的問題做個後續跟進，特別是關於您的激勵費用以及自有和租賃物業組合盈利能力的問題。如果RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）在2023年左右全面恢復，這是否足以使激勵費用恢復到疫情前的水平？

Or what's the dynamics that will kind of keep us away from that? And then a similar question on the owned and leased profitability, is inflation going to hold back the recovery there?

或者說，是什麼因素會讓我們避免這種情況？類似的問題也適用於自有和租賃資產的獲利能力，通貨膨脹是否會阻礙這方面的復甦？

Right. So a couple of things. You are right to point out that nominal level of RevPAR is not the same as real. And so when we think about it, for example, now, the real recovery of RevPAR is about 3 points worse relative to the nominal just because of -- in '21, to your point, about inflation.

好的。有幾點要說明。您指出名義上的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）水平與實際水平不同，這一點沒錯。例如，我們仔細想想，由於2021年的通貨膨脹，實際的RevPAR復甦情況比名目水準低了大約3個百分點。

At the same time, one of the things I think is -- what's been so impressive about the operating teams is we used to think about breakeven levels for a full-service hotel of 40% to 50% occupancy. And what you're finding is that, with the great work that they've done on managing the hotel and dramatically lower occupancies, that they've been able to return these hotels to either neutral profitability at dramatically lower levels of breakeven occupancy. And so I think that will really help offset on the inflation side.

同時，我認為營運團隊最令人印象深刻的一點是，我們過去認為全服務飯店的損益平衡點入住率在40%到50%之間。而現在，我們發現，憑藉他們在酒店管理方面所做的出色工作，即使入住率大幅下降，他們也能使這些酒店在遠低於盈虧平衡入住率的情況下實現收支平衡。因此，我認為這將極大地有助於抵消通貨膨脹的影響。

The other comment I'll make is on the incentive fee side is just a reminder that it depends a whole lot on where. So just when you think, broadly speaking, we were at almost 72% of our hotels were earning IMF in 2019, and we're now still a tad under 50%. And where you see the biggest difference is really domestically in the U.S. And that is that, with owners' priorities, that is going to mean you really need to get back to those hurdles of levels of actual real profits before we're going to get our incentive fees.

關於激勵費用，我還要補充一點，這很大程度取決於具體情況。例如，2019年我們旗下近72%的飯店都獲得了國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的獎勵，而現在這個比例還略低於50%。最大的差異體現在美國國內市場。這意味著，由於業主優先考慮的是獲利，我們需要先達到一定的實際利潤水平，才能獲得激勵費用。

Now internationally, no surprise, where you've got quite a bit more of hotels without the owner's priority. There, you're already seeing dramatically higher percentages of hotels earning IMF. So I think we've got some great potential in the international hotels, where there have been such restrictions on entering the country, and they're more dependent on international travelers. I think of Asia Pacific outside of China as an example there.

現在，在國際上，不出所料，許多飯店並沒有業主優先權。在這些地區，獲得國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）補貼的飯店比例已顯著提高。所以我認為，在那些入境限制較多、更依賴國際旅客的國際飯店領域，我們擁有巨大的潛力。我認為中國以外的亞太地區就是一個例子。

And in the U.S., I think, as you heard me say in our comments, the IMF that we're getting from the resorts have just been fantastic and, in many cases, are already above 2019 levels. So when you think about the large cities in the U.S. and their greater relative dependence on international travel, I think it delivers a lot of confidence that we will get back. I just think predicting whether that is '23 or not is probably a bridge too far, but certainly moving in the right direction.

在美國，正如我剛才所說，我們從度假勝地獲得的國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）收入非常可觀，在許多情況下已經超過了2019年的水準。考慮到美國大城市對國際旅行的相對依賴程度，我認為這大大增強了我們對經濟復甦的信心。只是現在預測復甦會在2023年還是2023年可能還為時過早，但毫無疑問，我們正朝著正確的方向前進。

And just as a follow-up. Last year, you talked about trying to cut some of the kind of cost reimbursement fees for the underlying hotels to help out their profitability. In Q4, it looks like that cost reimbursement revenue is about 85% of 2019 level.

還有一個後續問題。去年，您提到要削減一些酒店的成本補償費用，以提高它們的盈利能力。第四季度，這部分成本補償收入似乎只有2019年同期水準的85%左右。

So it's recovered basically in line with your other fees. So just where are we in that process of sort of lowering that sort of reimbursement contribution from the owners?

所以，這部分的費用基本上是依照其他費用收取。那麼，在降低業主這部分補償金的過程中，我們目前進展到什麼程度了呢？

So a couple things. One is a reminder that 85% of our reimbursed costs are based on the top line revenues of the hotels. So an overwhelming part, like, for example, our sales and marketing fees are contractually set at a percentage of revenues of the hotels. So they are, by nature, going to move up and down.

有幾點要說明。首先，我們85%的報銷費用都是以飯店的營業收入為基礎。因此，很大一部分的費用，例如銷售和行銷費用，都是按酒店收入的一定比例在合約中規定。所以，這些費用自然會上下波動。

The other thing is to recognize that we worked very hard on certain parts of the fees where we were able to impact kind of the fixed and floating component. And so that we do believe that there is more efficiency as we grow larger in terms of what we can do for the hotels.

另一方面，我們也意識到，我們確實在某些費用環節下了很多功夫，力求對固定費用和浮動費用部分都產生影響。因此，我們相信，隨著公司規模的擴大，我們能為飯店提供的服務也會更有效率。

And as an example, when your digital share -- your direct share of reservations is growing as well as it is, it's just a reminder that those are some of the lowest-cost reservations for a hotel as possible. But we did lower our fixed cost by roughly 30% for the system. But as I said before, overwhelmingly, the charges are based on a function of hotel revenues.

舉例來說，當您的線上預訂份額——也就是您的直接預訂份額——像現在這樣增長如此迅猛時，這恰恰提醒我們，這些預訂方式是酒店成本最低的預訂方式之一。我們確實將系統的固定成本降低了約 30%。但正如我之前所說，絕大多數費用都取決於飯店的收入。

We will take our next question from Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

接下來，我們將回答來自克利夫蘭研究公司的文斯·西皮爾提出的問題。

You spoke about delivering the service that the guests expect. And when I hear that, I think about food and beverage, I think about housekeeping. I'm curious kind of what percent of the way back you are as it relates to your breakfast buffets in select-service hotels, your 3-meal-a-day restaurants and more full service?

您剛才提到要提供客人期望的服務。聽到這話，我首先想到的是餐飲和客房服務。我很好奇，就您目前在精選服務酒店的自助早餐、一日三餐餐廳以及其他全方位服務方面，恢復到什麼程度了？

And can you remind us what percentage of guests are kind of -- are you on the opt-in model? And what percentage of guests are opting in for housekeeping?

請問您能否提醒我們一下，有多少比例的客人屬於──你們採用的是自願選擇模式嗎？又有多少比例的客人選擇客房清潔服務？

Sure. So on housekeeping, we continue to evolve our approach. Today, in our select-tier hotels, it is an opt-in approach. Daily housekeeping is available at the discretion of the guest. And at luxury, we are doing daily housekeeping.

當然。關於客房清潔服務，我們一直在不斷改進。目前，在我們精選的飯店中，客房清潔服務是可選的，客人可根據自身需求選擇是否需要。而在豪華飯店，我們則提供每日客房清潔服務。

We're testing those options today. We're using those learnings to try and strike the right balance between guest expectations and economic realities for the owners. And as we work through those tests, we intend to launch a definitive approach sometime here early in 2022.

我們今天正在測試這些方案。我們將利用這些經驗，努力在賓客期望和業主經濟現實之間找到合適的平衡。隨著測試的進行，我們計劃在2022年初推出最終方案。

Great. And how about on the food and beverage side? What percentage of the way back are you there?

太好了。那餐飲方面呢？你們的進度完成了多少？

Yes, we're here. So we're getting there. It's -- we are largely back to where we were in the markets that have seen the most rapid recovery. So if you are lucky enough to visit our hotels, particularly in resort destinations, you'll experience food and beverage services and offerings very similar to what you saw pre pandemic.

是的，我們已經恢復了。我們正在逐步恢復。在那些復甦最快的市場，我們基本上已經恢復到疫情前的水準。所以，如果您有幸入住我們的飯店，尤其是在度假勝地，您將體驗到與疫情前非常相似的餐飲服務和產品。

An example of that, we just had our Board meeting down in South Florida. Most of us had to order in-room dining because the restaurants couldn't offer us reservations prior to 10:45 p.m., and they were full. In those markets where we've seen demand recover more slowly, we are moderating the pace at which we bring back our food and beverage offerings and trying to have that pace match the pace of demand recovery.

舉個例子，我們剛剛在南佛羅裡達州召開了董事會。由於餐廳晚上10:45之前都無法預訂，而且已經客滿了，所以我們大多數人只能選擇客房送餐服務。在那些需求復甦較為緩慢的市場，我們正在放慢恢復餐飲服務的步伐，力求使恢復速度與需求復甦的速度相符。

That makes a lot of sense. My second question is on distribution. With special corporate being down, I imagine OTA contribution is up. But can you just remind us, I think -- pre pandemic, I think you were in the low double digits for OTA contribution. What did that end up being in 2021?

這很有道理。我的第二個問題是關於分銷通路的。由於企業專案行銷收入下降，我估計OTA（線上電視）收入會上升。但您能否提醒我們一下，我記得在疫情之前，OTA收入佔比好像是兩位數的低點。那麼2021年這個數字是多少呢？

And then I think your digital direct channel was growing pretty fast, maybe even faster than OTA. How has that evolved? And where do you see that going in 2022?

我認為你們的數位直銷管道成長速度非常快，甚至可能比無線電視（OTA）成長得更快。它是如何發展的？你們認為它在2022年會朝哪個方向發展？

Sure. So I think a couple things. And that's just a reminder that, in 2019, you also had -- special corporate is classically done through what we call GDS. And that is what is obviously taking the biggest dip. So now when you look at kind of their percentage share, they're down 600 basis points as compared to '19.

當然。所以我覺得有幾點需要說明。首先，提醒一下，2019年，特殊企業交易通常是透過我們所謂的全球交付系統（GDS）進行的。而這部分交易顯然跌幅最大。現在，如果你看它們的市佔率百分比，你會發現比2019年下降了600個基點。

Now the OTAs are up with all this leisure business by 200 basis points, and they're at 14% in 2021. But at the same time, a direct share of total room nights is up to 76.3%, and that's actually up 340 basis points.

現在，OTA 在休閒旅遊業務方面成長了 200 個基點，2021 年佔比達到 14%。但同時，飯店直接預訂的總客房夜數份額上升至 76.3%，實際上增加了 340 個基點。

So actually, our direct channels have grown meaningfully more than the OTAs. The OTAs have clearly, obviously, benefited from the leisure business. And GDS, classically, and more related to business travel has been the one that has lost the most share.

實際上，我們的直銷管道成長幅度遠超過線上旅行社（OTA）。 OTA 顯然從休閒旅遊業務中獲益匪淺。而傳統的全球分銷系統（GDS），尤其是與商務旅行相關的管道，市佔率下降幅度最大。

And the only other thing that I'll mention because I just find it interesting that also within the direct share growth is the movement off of voice to digital. And I think that all makes sense when you think about our Bonvoy technology and our app and how many downloads we get that our guests are feeling more and more comfortable using the digital channel, which, again, is an incredibly efficient channel from a cost perspective and from a value delivery to the customer.

還有一點值得一提，我覺得很有趣的是，直接份額成長的同時，客戶也在從語音管道轉向數位管道。考慮到我們的萬豪旅享家技術和應用程序，以及我們應用程式的下載量，這一點就很容易理解了。我們的客人越來越習慣使用數位管道，而數位管道無論從成本角度還是從為客戶創造價值的角度來看，都是一個極其高效的管道。

And we will take our next question from Rich Hightower with Evercore.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Evercore 公司的 Rich Hightower 提出的問題。

So just on the development pipeline and as I think about supply chain delays and the like, maybe help us understand, if we go back to the beginning of 2021, what your outlook was for rooms growth at that time? How many of those projects got delayed versus your original outlook and maybe pushed into 2022? And then likewise, what sort of cushion do you get to the 2022 forecast as you think about ongoing delays and so forth?

所以，就開發案而言，考慮到供應鏈延誤等問題，能否請您幫忙了解一下，如果我們回到2021年初，您當時對客房成長的預期是什麼？有多少項目與您最初的預期相比有所延誤，甚至推遲到2022年？同樣地，考慮到持續的延誤等因素，您對2022年的預測有多少緩衝空間？

Yes, I'll take a try at that one, and Leeny may chime in. I think about it a little bit -- I think about the pipeline a little like a conveyor belt. We've got some projects. One of the reasons that our openings were so strong in the fourth quarter is we saw some projects that, in our earlier forecast, we assumed would open Q1 '22. And they actually got done a little more quickly and opened in December.

是的，我會嘗試回答這個問題，Leeny 也可能發表意見。我稍微思考了一下──我把專案流程想像成一條傳送帶。我們有一些項目。第四季度新店開業如此強勁的原因之一是，我們看到一些項目提前完工，這些項目在我們先前的預測中預計會在 2022 年第一季開業。實際上，它們的完工速度更快，在 12 月就開業了。

We do see some delays that come out the back end. But I think maybe the most relevant statistics are the pace at which shovels are going in the ground and the lengthening we've seen in the construction cycle. You heard Leeny in her remarks talk about roughly 24 months, start to finish, as an average for our select-service hotels here in the U.S. There's not a lot we can do to accelerate that.

我們確實看到一些後期延誤。但我認為最相關的統計數據或許是開工速度和工期延長的情況。正如Leeny在演講中提到的，在美國，我們精選服務酒店的平均工期大約為24個月，從開工到竣工。我們對此並沒有太多可以加快的措施。

If anything, we've got some challenges with supply chain and the like. But that 24 months seems to be [holding]. It's one of the reasons we continue to be so focused on conversions in the year for the year.

如果有什麼挑戰的話，那就是供應鏈等方面。但過去24個月的情況似乎還算穩定。這也是我們持續專注於年度轉換率提升的原因之一。

And as Tony said, we do -- for what it's worth, when we build our budget, we do go project by project, country by country. So it is a quite detailed estimate. But as Tony pointed out, there are some that finished a little bit earlier and some that end up being a little bit later. And we do our best every year at estimating.

正如東尼所說，我們確實會逐一、逐國制定預算。所以估算非常詳細。但正如托尼所指出的，有些項目會提前完工，有些則會延後一些。我們每年都會盡力做好估算。

But the other part that I'll point out when we talked about where we were at the beginning of '21 is that we actually expect the deletions to be higher. And I think you all will remember that my comments then reflected probably about 50 basis points of an expected COVID-related hedge that it was hard to predict at that point where exactly all these hotels would go as we move through the pandemic.

但我想指出，我們在2021年初討論時，我們預計實際的撤資規模會更大。我想大家都記得，我當時的評論反映了大約50個基點的預期，這是對沖新冠疫情相關風險的措施，因為當時很難預測隨著疫情發展，所有這些酒店最終會去向何方。

And I think happily, with a lot of work on everybody's part, including the owners, in revenue management and on the cost side, that -- and the banks have been very good partners to work with as well, we have seen deletions come in better than we expected. And that has also ended up helping the net rooms growth number even compared to where we were 4 months ago.

令人欣慰的是，在包括業主在內的各方共同努力下，我們在收益管理和成本控制方面都付出了巨大努力——銀行也一直是非常好的合作夥伴——我們看到客房刪除情況比預期要好。這也最終幫助提升了淨客房成長率，甚至比四個月前的情況還要好。

That's really helpful color. And if I could just add one follow-up, maybe back to, I think, one of your responses on the leisure side and thinking about demand and pricing power in that segment. If we look at some of the nontraditional short-term rental companies, for instance, Airbnb and so forth, everybody sort of talks about their leisure customer the same way.

這個顏色真的很有幫助。如果可以的話，我想補充一點，關於您之前提到的休閒度假領域的需求和定價權問題。如果我們看看一些非傳統的短租公司，像是Airbnb等等，會發現它們對休閒度假客戶的描述都大同小異。

And a lot of this is the business has improved meaningfully with work from home and a hybrid workforce and all that kind of stuff. I mean, would you say that there's more or less or about the same customer overlap as you think about your core leisure customer versus what we see in the short-term rental space? And how has that changed over the course of COVID?

很多時候，居家辦公、混合辦公模式等等都顯著改善了業務。我的意思是，您認為核心休閒客戶和短期租賃客戶之間的客戶重疊度是更高還是更低，或大致相同？在新冠疫情期間，這種情況發生了哪些變化？

Well, I think, if you look particularly at the performance we've seen in our luxury-tier resorts and our full-service resorts, one of the things we hear from our customers pretty clearly is their desire for a full complement of services and amenities. And as we've said in response to versions of this question in the past, that's probably the most significant differentiator between our product offering and some of the short-term rental offerings that are out there.

我認為，尤其如果您仔細觀察我們豪華度假村和全方位服務度假村的業績，您會發現我們從客戶那裡非常清楚地聽到他們希望獲得全套服務和設施。正如我們過去在回答類似問題時所說，這或許是我們產品與市面上一些短期租賃產品之間最顯著的差異。

The other thing I'll mention is, clearly, in the beginning of the pandemic, when you were kind of imagining searches for people wanting to get away, there was larger proportion of searches that were for places that are out of the way, truly places where people felt comfortable going where they could be away from others.

我還要提一下，很明顯，在疫情初期，當人們搜尋想要逃離的地方時，搜尋量中很大一部分是偏僻的地方，是人們真正感到舒適、可以遠離他人的地方。

And we have seen that gap narrow in terms of the searches for kind of classic room-sharing type places as well as hotels. We've seen that gap narrow, which, I think, makes sense given the progress as we move through the pandemic.

我們看到，在搜尋傳統合租房來源和飯店方面，兩者之間的差距正在縮小。考慮到疫情期間的進展，這種差距的縮小是合理的。

And we do have another question, and that will be from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

我們還有一個問題，這個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林。

On the owned and leased segment, can you give us a little bit more color on some of the puts and takes that could impact that segment's RevPAR and margin performance versus the system-wide trends in 2022? And maybe even tie in how you're thinking about any asset sales there, if possible, given how strong the transaction market has been?

關於自有和租賃業務板塊，您能否更詳細地介紹一下可能影響該板塊2022年每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）和利潤率表現（與系統整體趨勢相比）的一些因素？鑑於目前交易市場的強勁勢頭，如果可能的話，能否談談您對該板塊資產出售的看法？

Sure. I think on the asset sales, we will obviously continue to be opportunistic, Stephen. And it really depends on where the hotel is, both in terms of its stage of CapEx. As you know, in a number of hotels that we own, we really want to get them to be great representations of our brands. And in cases where the markets have really not recovered, we are not going to feel compelled to rush that sale. So in that regard, it will really vary.

當然。關於資產出售，我認為我們顯然會繼續抓住機會，史蒂芬。這主要取決於酒店的現狀，包括其資本支出階段。正如你所知，我們擁有的許多酒店，我們都希望它們能成為我們品牌的優秀代表。如果市場尚未真正復甦，我們就不會急於出售。所以在這方面，情況會因飯店而異。

We've also got JV interests, as you know. For example, our St. Regis Punta Mita JV was sold during 2021. That market was doing great. That hotel was in great shape, and we were able to get a really good sales price on that asset. So I think it really does depend a lot on the situation.

如您所知，我們也有一些合資項目。例如，我們在蓬塔米塔的瑞吉酒店合資專案已於2021年出售。當時當地市場行情很好，那家飯店營運狀況也相當不錯，我們最終以非常理想的價格售出了該資產。所以我認為這很大程度上取決於具體情況。

Remember that owned-leased also has termination fees. And that, also, I would expect not to be growing, but also to continue to provide somewhere in the ballpark of $40 million in fees a year. And then on the owned-leased profits, I think you will continue to see progress. But do remember that we have a chunk of leased hotels.

請記住，自有租賃模式也會產生終止費用。而且，我預計這部分費用不會成長，但每年仍將維持在 4,000 萬美元左右。至於自有租賃模式的利潤，我認為會繼續成長。但請記住，我們還有相當一部分的飯店是租賃。

And there, you obviously need to get to where you're covering your fixed rent payment, to the extent it is fixed rent, which will mean it behaves a little bit more like a U.S. owner's priority, where you need to get to a floor before you're actually getting any profit. So I think we look forward to seeing the numbers get better and better. But in terms of getting back to the full levels of 2019, I think it will take a little bit of time.

顯然，你需要先達到能夠支付固定租金的水平（如果租金是固定的），這意味著你的經營模式會更像美國房東的優先事項，即你需要先達到一定的最低收入水平才能真正開始盈利。所以我認為我們期待看到各項數據越來越好。但要恢復到2019年的水平，我認為還需要一些時間。

Makes sense. And perhaps as a big picture follow-up, Tony, now that we're coming up on the roughly 1-year mark that you've taken over as CEO, I'm curious how you could characterize where your thought priorities are now in addition to the company, not only for its unique recovery, but longer term, and how they may have shifted over the course of the year, particularly given you've met with folks in the field more recently?

有道理。東尼，或許可以從更宏觀的角度來看這個問題。既然你接任CEO已經快一年了，我很想知道，除了公司本身，你現在的首要考慮是什麼？不僅是公司目前的復甦，還有更長遠的未來。在過去的一年裡，你的考慮重點發生了哪些變化？特別是考慮到你最近與第一線員工進行了更多交流。

Sure. Thanks. I don't think they've shifted meaningfully. I mean, I think we are encouraged, as you've heard this morning, about the pace of demand recovery. But the priorities really continue to revolve around our key constituents, leading with our associates, certainly our guests and, as we've discussed at length this morning, the economic health of our owners.

當然，謝謝。我認為他們並沒有發生實質的轉變。我的意思是，正如您今天早上聽到的，我們對需求復甦的速度感到鼓舞。但我們的首要任務仍然是圍繞我們的關鍵利益相關者，首先是我們的員工，當然還有我們的顧客，以及我們今天早上詳細討論過的，我們業主們的經濟狀況。

Okay. Well, thank you all for your questions this morning, for your continued interest in Marriott. And with increasing frequency, we look forward to seeing you on the road. Thanks, and have a great day.

好的。非常感謝各位今天早上提出的問題，也感謝大家一直以來對萬豪酒店的關注。我們期待在旅途中能更頻繁地見到你們。謝謝，祝你們今天愉快。

This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time, and have a wonderful day.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。