萬豪國際 (MAR) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Marriott International's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們、先生們,感謝各位的耐心等待,歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2021年第二季財報電話會議。(操作人員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。(操作說明)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today, Jackie Burka. Please go ahead.

    現在我謹將會議交給今天的演講嘉賓傑基·伯卡。請繼續。

  • Jackie Burka McConagha - SVP of IR

    Jackie Burka McConagha - SVP of IR

  • Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

    謝謝。各位早安,歡迎參加萬豪酒店集團2021年第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有:我們的執行長 Tony Capuano;我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Leeny Oberg;以及我們的投資者關係副總裁 Betsy Dahm。

  • I will remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold.

    我要提醒大家,我們今天發表的許多評論並非歷史事實,而是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中所述的許多風險和不確定性的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致未來的結果與我們在評論中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。我們今天早些時候發布的評論和新聞稿中的聲明僅在今天有效,不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。

  • Please also note that, unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR, occupancy and average daily rate comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels and include hotels temporarily closed due to COVID-19. RevPAR, occupancy and ADR comparisons between 2021 and 2019 reflects properties that are defined as comparable as of June 30, 2021, even if they were not open and operating for the full year 2019 or they did not meet all the other criteria for comparable in 2019.

    另請注意,除非另有說明,我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)、入住率和平均每日房價評論反映的是系統範圍內可比酒店的固定匯率結果,並且包括因 COVID-19 而暫時關閉的酒店。2021 年和 2019 年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)、入住率和平均房價 (ADR) 對比反映了截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日被定義為可比物業的情況,即使這些物業在 2019 年全年沒有開業運營,或者它們在 2019 年沒有所有其他可比標準。

  • You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

    您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及我們今天演講中提到的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

  • And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

    現在我將把電話交給東尼。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. I am very pleased with our second quarter results and the accelerating pace of the global recovery. The tremendous overall improvement we saw in both occupancy and rate in the quarter demonstrate a basic premise, people love to travel and to stay at our hotels.

    謝謝你,傑基,大家早安。我對我們第二季的業績以及全球經濟復甦加速的步伐感到非常滿意。本季入住率和房價均有顯著提升,證明了一個基本事實:人們喜歡旅行,也喜歡入住我們的飯店。

  • Demand grew steadily throughout the second quarter. Worldwide occupancy gained 6 percentage points in the month of June compared to May and topped 55%. Average daily rate in June was down only 13% from June 2 years ago. As a result, global RevPAR has risen meaningfully and swiftly from the depths of the pandemic when RevPAR was down 90% to down just 38% in June compared to the same month in 2019.

    第二季需求穩定成長。6 月全球飯店入住率比 5 月增加了 6 個百分點,超過 55%。6 月的平均日房價僅比兩年前 6 月下降了 13%。因此,全球每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 已從疫情最嚴重時期(RevPAR 下降 90%)迅速回升,到 6 月份與 2019 年同期相比僅下降 38%。

  • Recovery time lines vary by region, given uneven vaccination trends, virus caseloads and travel restrictions, yet we remain encouraged by the incredible resilience of travel demand, demonstrated by the rapid return of guests in areas where rules have been eased and people feel they can travel safely. This can be seen most keenly in Mainland China, the first major market where RevPAR has recovered to pre-pandemic levels. RevPAR in the second quarter was driven by very strong demand, resulting in ADR exceeding 2019 levels. Occupancy reached 71% in April and 68% in May before dipping to roughly 60% in June due to small COVID outbreaks and strict lockdowns in certain markets. Demand recovered quickly once the restrictions were lifted, as we've seen throughout the last year. July RevPAR is again expected to exceed 2019 levels.

    由於疫苗接種趨勢不均衡、病毒病例數量和旅行限制等因素,各地區的恢復時間線有所不同,但我們仍然對旅行需求的驚人韌性感到鼓舞,這體現在規則放寬、人們感覺可以安全旅行的地區遊客迅速回歸。這點在中國大陸體現得最為明顯,中國大陸是RevPAR(每間可供出租客房收入)恢復到疫情前水準的第一個主要市場。第二季的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 受到強勁需求的推動,導致平均房價 (ADR) 超過了 2019 年的水平。4 月入住率達 71%,5 月達到 68%,但 6 月因部分市場出現小規模新冠疫情爆發和嚴格封鎖,入住率下降到約 60%。正如我們在過去一年所看到的,一旦限制解除,需求就迅速恢復了。預計7月的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)將再次超過2019年的水平。

  • Perhaps most encouragingly, in April, for the first time since the pandemic began, leisure transient, business transient and group room nights in Mainland China were all ahead of 2019 levels. This is especially impressive given the absence of international arrivals due to stringent border restrictions.

    最令人鼓舞的是,4 月份,自疫情爆發以來,中國大陸的休閒旅客、商務旅客和團體旅客入住夜數首次全部超過了 2019 年的水平。考慮到嚴格的邊境限制導致國際旅客無法入境,這一成績尤其令人印象深刻。

  • The U.S. and Canada accounts for roughly 2/3 of our rooms. And in this region, lodging demand grew impressively during the quarter, led by increasingly strong leisure demand as the number of vaccinated people continued to rise. U.S. leisure room nights in the second quarter were 15% higher than in the second quarter of 2019, though we are seeing more blending of trip purpose with the more flexible work from home or anywhere trend.

    美國和加拿大約占我們客房總數的 2/3。在這一地區,隨著接種疫苗的人數持續增加,休閒需求日益強勁,帶動了該地區本季住宿需求的顯著增長。美國第二季休閒飯店客房入住夜數比 2019 年第二季成長了 15%,儘管我們看到旅行目的與更靈活的在家工作或隨時隨地辦公的趨勢越來越融合。

  • Total U.S. occupancy reached over 63% in June, with ADR down just 11% versus June of 2019. Our strong momentum has continued into the first 3.5 weeks of July, with U.S. occupancy reaching 67% and ADR down only 2% compared to July of '19. July RevPAR for this period was down around 16% versus July of 2019. The U.S. is also seeing increasing signs of recovery in both special corporate and group demand. While special corporate booking levels in the first 3.5 weeks of July are still down around 45% compared to the same period in '19, we are optimistic that we've turned a corner.

    6 月美國飯店總入住率超過 63%,平均房價僅比 2019 年 6 月下降 11%。我們的強勁勢頭延續到了 7 月的前 3.5 週,美國入住率達到 67%,平均房價與 2019 年 7 月相比僅下降了 2%。7 月的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 比 2019 年 7 月下降了約 16%。美國也出現了越來越多的復甦跡象,無論是企業特殊需求還是團體需求。儘管 7 月前 3.5 週的特殊企業預訂量與 2019 年同期相比仍下降了約 45%,但我們樂觀地認為我們已經扭轉了局面。

  • U.S. special corporate bookings rose 23% in June over May and then rose another 27% in the first 3.5 weeks of July as compared to the first 3.5 weeks of June, with improvement widespread across industries and lengthening booking windows. Many of our corporate customers are telling us they are beginning to get back on the road this summer, and we expect to see a step-up in business travel post Labor Day as children go back to in-person learning and workers increasingly return to the office.

    美國企業特殊預訂量在 6 月比 5 月成長了 23%,7 月的前 3.5 週比 6 月的前 3.5 週成長了 27%,各行業的改善普遍存在,預訂窗口期也延長了。許多企業客戶告訴我們,他們今年夏天開始恢復出差,我們預計勞動節後,隨著孩子們重返校園進行面對面學習,以及越來越多的員工返回辦公室,商務旅行將會增加。

  • Group bookings in the U.S. have also gained momentum. U.S. group bookings made for all future dates were down 29% in June compared to those made in June of '19, a large improvement from down 56% in March of '21 versus March of '19. And for the first time since the pandemic started, group bookings made in the month of June for any time in 2021 exceeded in-the-year bookings made in the same month of 2019. At the end of the second quarter, group revenue pace versus '19 was down 31% for the fourth quarter of this year, improving to down 21% for the first quarter of '22 and then down 12% for the second quarter of '22. However, it's still early, and we expect bookings made closer to the event date will increase group revenue on the books for these time periods. Most importantly, our sales team is holding on to average daily rate. ADR for group bookings is almost flat for the fourth quarter and 3% higher for full year 2022 compared to the same periods in 2019.

    美國的團體預約也呈現成長動能。與 2019 年 6 月相比,6 月美國團體預訂未來所有日期的訂單量下降了 29%,相比 2021 年 3 月與 2019 年 3 月相比下降了 56%,這是一個很大的改善。自疫情爆發以來,2021 年 6 月的團體預訂量首次超過了 2019 年同月的預訂量。截至第二季末,集團營收成長速度與 2019 年同期相比下降了 31%,預計 2022 年第四季將下降 21%,2022 年第二季將下降 12%。不過現在還為時過早,我們預計臨近活動日期進行的預訂將增加這些時段的團體收入。最重要的是,我們的銷售團隊維持了平均每日收入水準。2022 年第四季團體預訂的平均房價幾乎持平,而 2022 年全年則比 2019 年同期上漲了 3%。

  • In other regions of the world, demand in the second quarter improved over the first quarter in the Middle East and Africa, in the Caribbean and Latin America and in Europe. Middle East, Africa is benefiting from relatively high vaccination rates in many countries in the Middle East. Occupancy strengthened to 47% in June, largely driven by staycations in the UAE and quarantine business. Occupancy in Caribbean and Latin America improved meaningfully during the quarter, rising to 45% in June. While urban destinations continue to struggle, given slow vaccination rates and high COVID case counts, many of our resort properties in the Caribbean and Mexico are flourishing as they benefit from easing international travel restrictions and their close proximity to the U.S.

    世界其他地區,中東和非洲、加勒比海和拉丁美洲以及歐洲第二季度的需求均較第一季改善。中東和非洲都受惠於中東許多國家相對較高的疫苗接種率。6 月入住率上升至 47%,主要得益於阿聯酋境內的度假旅遊和隔離業務的成長。本季加勒比海和拉丁美洲的入住率顯著提高,6 月升至 45%。由於疫苗接種率低、新冠病例數高,城市旅遊目的地仍在苦苦掙扎,而我們在加勒比海和墨西哥的許多度假村卻蓬勃發展,因為它們受益於國際旅行限制的放寬以及與美國的距離很近。

  • Europe's recovery is still lagging given its heavy reliance on international guests, slower border reopenings and shifting restrictions that change on short notice. Yet, with the EU easing many travel restrictions beginning in May and an increasing number of hotels reopening, occupancy doubled in just 3 months, reaching 31% in June.

    由於歐洲嚴重依賴國際遊客,邊境重新開放速度較慢,而且限制措施經常臨時變更,因此歐洲的復甦仍然落後。然而,隨著歐盟從 5 月開始放寬許多旅遊限制,越來越多的飯店重新開業,入住率在短短 3 個月內翻了一番,6 月達到 31%。

  • The recovery in Asia Pacific, excluding China, stalled in the second quarter as countries such as Japan, India, South Korea and Australia imposed strict lockdowns in response to sharp rises in Delta variant cases and low vaccination rates. Encouragingly, the recovery is now picking up steam again as caseloads in some countries like India have started to decline.

    中國以外的亞太地區經濟復甦在第二季度停滯不前,因為日本、印度、韓國和澳洲等國為應對德爾塔變異株病例的急劇增加和疫苗接種率低,實施了嚴格的封鎖措施。令人鼓舞的是,隨著印度等一些國家的病例數開始下降,復甦動能正在再次增強。

  • Shifting to the development front. Our pipeline stood at nearly 478,000 rooms at the end of the second quarter. Openings were strong, with nearly 25,000 rooms added to our system during the quarter, and deal signings were also healthy. Additionally, less than 2% of rooms fell out of the pipeline, one of the lowest levels we've seen in the last 3 years. We are very pleased with our momentum around conversions as well. Conversions accounted for 26% of rooms added in the first half of this year and have been a meaningful contributor to signings. We continue to have the largest pipeline of global rooms under construction.

    轉向研發方面。截至第二季末,我們的在建工程客房數量接近 478,000 間。本季飯店開幕情況良好,系統新增客房近 25,000 間,簽約情況也十分樂觀。此外,只有不到 2% 的客房專案退出了專案流程,這是我們近 3 年來看到的最低水準之一。我們對轉換率的成長動能也感到非常滿意。今年上半年新增客房中,改簽客房佔 26%,對簽約量做出了重要貢獻。我們目前仍擁有全球規模最大的在建客房專案。

  • We are also seeing great momentum around our branded residential business, with a record 18 residential properties expected to open during the year. For the full year, we expect that gross rooms growth will accelerate to approximately 6%. And with more visibility into anticipated full year deletions, we now expect 2021 net rooms growth to be towards the higher end of our previous expectation of 3% to 3.5%. As a reminder, this estimate includes the 100 basis point headwind from the 88 Service Properties Trust hotels that left our system earlier this year. We are pleased with the continued progress on replacing those hotels with new product. We are now in conversations for 80% of those locations, with signed or approved deals for nearly 20%.

    我們的品牌住宅業務也發展勢頭強勁,預計今年將有創紀錄的 18 個住宅項目開幕。我們預計全年客房總成長率將加速至約 6%。隨著對全年預期刪除情況的了解更加清晰,我們現在預計 2021 年淨客房成長率將接近我們先前預期的 3% 至 3.5% 的上限。提醒一下,此估算包括今年稍早離開我們系統的 88 家 Service Properties Trust 飯店帶來的 100 個基點的不利影響。我們對用新產品取代舊酒店的進度感到滿意。目前我們正在就其中 80% 的地點進行洽談,已有近 20% 的地點簽署或批准了協議。

  • We continue to enhance and expand Marriott Bonvoy into an immersive travel platform that includes multiple products and offerings that enable us to provide value to our members beyond hotel stays. The program grew to over 153 million members at the end of the quarter.

    我們將繼續提升和擴展萬豪旅享家,使其成為一個沉浸式旅行平台,其中包括多種產品和服務,使我們能夠為會員提供酒店住宿以外的價值。截至本季末,該計畫會員人數已超過 1.53 億人。

  • Homes & Villas by Marriott International, or HVMI, which currently has around 35,000 whole-home listings, has been an attractive offering and tool for engaging with members throughout the pandemic. With nearly 40% of listings in markets where we don't have distribution, HVMI is expanding the number of destination options for our guests. Over 90% of HVMI room nights in the quarter were booked by Bonvoy members.

    萬豪國際集團旗下的 Homes & Villas(簡稱 HVMI)目前擁有約 35,000 套整套房屋房源,在疫情期間一直是與會員互動的一種有吸引力的產品和服務。由於近 40% 的房源位於我們沒有分銷管道的市場,HVMI 正在為我們的客人擴大目的地選擇範圍。本季 HVMI 飯店客房預訂量超過 90% 由萬豪旅享家會員預訂。

  • Our co-branded credit card holders were very active in the second quarter, with global card spending surpassing the same period in 2019. Global card acquisitions were also strong, reaching 2019 levels. Our recent credit card launches in South Korea and Mexico have seen strong initial interest from consumers in those markets. The South Korean card issuer, Shinhan Financial Group, touted the launch of our card as one of the most successful premium card launches they have ever had. Our total co-brand credit card fees in the second quarter surpassed those in the same quarter of 2019 for the first time since the pandemic began.

    第二季度,我們的聯名信用卡持卡人非常活躍,全球信用卡消費額超過了 2019 年同期水準。全球信用卡業務拓展也十分強勁,達到 2019 年的水準。我們最近在韓國和墨西哥推出的信用卡產品,受到了當地消費者的熱烈歡迎。韓國發卡機構新韓金融集團稱,我們這張卡的推出是他們有史以來最成功的高端信用卡發行之一。第二季我們的聯名信用卡總費用首次超過了 2019 年同期水平,這是自疫情爆發以來首次出現這種情況。

  • We've also been very pleased with our successful Uber collaboration in the U.S. The number of members linking their accounts to date has far exceeded our expectations. Activated accounts were already averaging 6 transactions in just the first 10 weeks, demonstrating our ability to drive real engagement with our Marriott Bonvoy members beyond the hotel stay.

    我們對與 Uber 在美國的成功合作也感到非常滿意。迄今為止,關聯帳戶的會員數量遠遠超出了我們的預期。激活帳戶在短短 10 週內平均就完成了 6 筆交易,這表明我們有能力在酒店住宿之外,真正提升萬豪旅享家會員的參與度。

  • We're always working on innovative ways to enhance our guests' full travel experience. Just last week, we became the first major hotel company to provide U.S.-based customers with the opportunity to purchase travel insurance. Guests can now buy travel insurance when they make a reservation through Marriott's website or mobile app by linking to approved products sold by Alliance Partners. As part of this distribution agreement, Marriott will earn commissions from Alliance.

    我們一直在努力尋找創新方法來提升客人的整體旅行體驗。就在上週,我們成為第一家為美國客戶提供購買旅遊保險機會的大型飯店公司。現在,客人可以透過萬豪官網或手機應用程式預訂飯店時,連結到聯盟合作夥伴銷售的經批准的產品,購買旅遊保險。根據該分銷協議,萬豪將從 Alliance 獲得佣金。

  • In another effort to connect with Bonvoy members beyond the hotel stay, we are piloting a program that allows members to earn and redeem points at food and beverage outlets in select hotels, even if the member is not staying in the hotel. The program is currently in over 200 outlets in Asia Pacific and the Middle East, with expansion to over 500 outlets expected by the end of the year.

    為了進一步加強與萬豪旅享家會員在酒店住宿之外的聯繫,我們正在試行一項計劃,允許會員在指定酒店的餐飲場所賺取和兌換積分,即使會員沒有入住該酒店。該計劃目前已在亞太和中東地區的 200 多家門市實施,預計今年底將擴展到 500 多家門市。

  • We also remain keenly focused on engaging with another key constituency, our owner and franchisee community. We have worked closely with them throughout the pandemic to help lower costs significantly. With some meaningful improvement in demand, profitability for many hotel owners accelerated in the second quarter. As the recovery continues, we are aligning with our owners and franchisees to balance 2 important goals as we think about our path forward: maximizing hotel-level cash flow and driving great guest experiences, as Leeny will discuss in more detail.

    我們也將繼續高度重視與另一個重要群體——我們的業主和加盟商群體——的互動。疫情期間,我們與他們密切合作,幫助他們大幅降低了成本。隨著需求顯著改善,許多飯店業主的獲利能力在第二季加速提升。隨著復甦的持續,我們正在與業主和加盟商保持一致,以平衡兩個重要目標,思考我們未來的發展方向:最大限度地提高酒店層面的現金流和創造良好的賓客體驗,Leeny 將對此進行更詳細的討論。

  • We are also working to address the labor challenges we are seeing, mainly in the U.S. in markets such as Southern Florida, Texas and Arizona, where demand has rebounded quickly. To that end, we are increasing our social and targeted marketing of Marriott as a best employer with career advancement opportunities as well as holding job fairs to reach qualified candidates. Hiring tools, including onetime sign-on bonuses and temporary incentives, sometimes in combination with base salary adjustments in select markets, are also being successfully employed.

    我們也正在努力解決目前面臨的勞動力挑戰,主要集中在美國,例如佛羅裡達州南部、德克薩斯州和亞利桑那州等市場,這些地區的需求已經迅速反彈。為此,我們正在加大對萬豪酒店作為最佳雇主和提供職業發展機會的宣傳力度,並舉辦招聘會以吸引合格的求職者。招募工具,包括一次性簽約獎金和臨時激勵措施,有時還會與特定市場的基本工資調整相結合,也得到了成功運用。

  • Before I turn the call over to Leeny, I want to thank our amazing team of associates around the world. I have spent time in Los Angeles, Miami and New York over the last couple of weeks as I've been getting back on the road again. It has been wonderful to visit our hotels and to meet with so many of our associates and see firsthand their passion and resilience. These have been challenging times, but we are looking forward with optimism. While the time line is uncertain, I am confident that our business will fully recover and continue to grow from there.

    在將電話交給 Leeny 之前,我想感謝我們遍布全球的優秀同事們。過去幾週,我陸續在洛杉磯、邁阿密和紐約等地停留,因為我又開始上路了。能夠參觀我們的酒店,與眾多同事見面,親眼目睹他們的熱情和韌性,真是太棒了。雖然這段時間充滿挑戰,但我們對未來充滿樂觀。雖然具體時間尚不確定,但我相信我們的業務將會全面復甦,並在此基礎上繼續發展壯大。

  • Leeny?

    莉妮?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Tony. Our second quarter results reflected the strong pace of the global recovery and the incredible resilience of our business model. Worldwide occupancy came in at 51%, a significant increase of 13 percentage points over the first quarter of this year. We also saw a meaningful improvement in our average daily rate decline versus pre-pandemic levels, with ADR down 17% in the quarter compared to the second quarter of 2019. We are optimistic that rate recovery will occur faster than in prior downturns, when ADR gains lagged occupancy gains.

    謝謝你,托尼。第二季業績反映了全球經濟強勁復甦的步伐以及我們商業模式的驚人韌性。全球入住率達 51%,比今年第一季大幅成長 13 個百分點。與疫情前水準相比,我們的平均每日房價下降幅度也有了顯著改善,本季平均每日房價較 2019 年第二季下降了 17%。我們樂觀地認為,房價復甦的速度將比以往的經濟低迷時期更快,因為以往的經濟低迷時期,平均房價的成長落後於入住率的成長。

  • It's been very encouraging to see that in Mainland China, ADR has come back in tandem with demand. Elsewhere, ADR has also been particularly strong in areas where occupancy has rebounded quickly. In Aruba, Puerto Rico and Mexico, over half of our 28 luxury and upper upscale comparable resorts saw record high ADRs for the month of June. In the rest of the U.S., robust demand across our 34 comparable luxury resorts drove ADR for those hotels, up more than 40% above June 2019 levels. Demand in Greece rose quickly after travel restrictions were eased in April, leading to a 20% premium in ADR for the quarter versus the same period in 2019.

    令人鼓舞的是,在中國大陸,ADR 已隨著需求的回升而恢復。在其他地區,入住率迅速回升的地區,平均房價也表現特別強勁。在阿魯巴、波多黎各和墨西哥,我們 28 家豪華和高檔同類度假村中,超過一半在 6 月的平均房價創下歷史新高。在美國其他地區,我們34家可比豪華度假村的強勁需求推動這些酒店的平均房價比2019年6月的水平上漲了40%以上。4 月希臘放寬旅遊限制後,需求迅速上升,導致該季度 ADR 比 2019 年同期上漲 20%。

  • Global RevPAR declined 44% compared to the second quarter of 2019, a more than 15 percentage point improvement compared to the first quarter RevPAR decline versus the 2019 first quarter. We recorded gross fee revenues of $642 million in the second quarter. Our non-RevPAR-related fees again proved to be quite resilient. Totaling $160 million in the second quarter, these fees have now fully recovered to second quarter of 2019 levels.

    與 2019 年第二季相比,全球每間可供出租客房收入下降了 44%,但與 2019 年第一季相比,第一季每間可供出租客房收入的降幅改善了 15 個百分點以上。第二季度,我們的總費用收入為 6.42 億美元。我們的非RevPAR相關費用再次證明了其相當強的韌性。第二季這些費用總計 1.6 億美元,目前已完全恢復到 2019 年第二季的水準。

  • Our residential branding fees were strong again this quarter at $14 million. Incentive management fees, or IMF, totaled $55 million in the quarter. Almost half of our IMFs were earned in Asia Pacific, mostly from hotels in Mainland China. Around 30% of our IMFs were earned in the U.S. and Canada region, with a number of U.S. luxury hotels generating more incentive fees than in the second quarter of 2019.

    本季我們的住宅品牌推廣費用再次表現強勁,達到 1,400 萬美元。本季激勵管理費(IMF)總額為 5,500 萬美元。我們近一半的國際貨幣基金組織收入來自亞太地區,其中大部分來自中國大陸的飯店。我們約 30% 的 IMF 收入來自美國和加拿大地區,其中一些美國豪華酒店產生的激勵費用比 2019 年第二季更多。

  • Second quarter G&A and other expense was 18% lower than in the second quarter of 2019, primarily as a result of our significant restructuring activities undertaken last year. We had a tax benefit of $41 million in the quarter due to releasing $118 million of reserves related to the favorable resolution of pre-acquisition Starwood tax audit. We continue to believe that going forward our core tax rate will be around 22% to 24%, absent any legislative changes to corporate tax rate. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $558 million, which included $22 million of German government support for certain of our leased and joint venture hotels.

    第二季一般及行政費用和其他費用比 2019 年第二季下降了 18%,主要是由於我們去年進行的重大重組活動。由於收購前喜達屋稅務審計的有利解決,我們釋放了與此相關的 1.18 億美元儲備金,因此本季度我們獲得了 4,100 萬美元的稅收優惠。我們仍然認為,在企業稅率沒有任何立法變化的情況下,我們未來的核心稅率將在 22% 到 24% 左右。第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 5.58 億美元,其中包括德國政府對我們部分租賃和合資飯店的 2,200 萬美元支持。

  • I also want to highlight the sale of the Punta Mita St Regis in the quarter, a joint venture in which we held a minority interest. It's encouraging to see transactions like this occurring, and we expect to receive a total of at least $36 million in after-tax cash proceeds from the sale. We will continue to operate the hotel under a long-term management agreement.

    我還想重點介紹位於該街區的 Punta Mita St Regis 酒店的出售情況,我們曾經持有該合資企業的少數股權。看到這樣的交易發生令人鼓舞,我們預計此次出售將獲得至少 3,600 萬美元的稅後現金收益。我們將繼續根據長期管理協議經營這家酒店。

  • At the hotel level, our numerous cost reduction and productivity enhancement efforts have significantly lowered breakeven occupancy levels around the world, even further than we anticipated when the pandemic got underway. As a result of these efforts as well as the strong recovery progress, the financial condition of many of our owners and franchisees continues to strengthen as does our accounts receivable collections performance.

    在飯店層面,我們採取的眾多降低成本和提高生產力的措施,已顯著降低了全球範圍內的盈虧平衡入住率,甚至比疫情爆發之初我們預期的還要低。由於這些努力以及強勁的復甦進展,我們許多業主和加盟商的財務狀況持續改善,我們的應收帳款回收業績也隨之改善。

  • Over 95% of our managed comp hotels in Mainland China had positive gross operating profits, or GOP, in the second quarter. Our GOP margin for managed comp hotels in this region expanded over 200 basis points versus margins in the second quarter of 2019. The strong margin expansion exemplifies the beneficial impact of our recent cost reduction and productivity enhancement efforts, given operations have fully come back in Mainland China with the recovery in demand.

    在第二季度,我們在中國大陸管理的合作酒店中,超過 95% 的酒店實現了正的毛營業利潤(GOP)。本地區託管飯店的毛利潤率較 2019 年第二季增加了 200 多個基點。鑑於中國大陸的業務已隨著需求的復甦而全面恢復,利潤率的強勁增長體現了我們近期降低成本和提高生產率的努力所帶來的積極影響。

  • These results also reflect our strong top line performance, driven by meaningful share gains in the region, thanks to our strong distribution, especially in the valuable luxury space, our popular brands and our powerful loyalty platform. In the U.S., the number of managed hotels with positive GOP improved significantly in the quarter as demand increased. Approximately 90% reported positive GOP in the second quarter, up from about 60% just 1 quarter ago. As occupancies increase, we are working closely with our hotel owners around the world to balance maximizing hotel profitability while also driving guest satisfaction. We're being thoughtful about how and whether to bring back costs, programs and amenities that were reduced or eliminated as we navigated the depth of the pandemic.

    這些業績也反映了我們強勁的營收表現,這得益於我們在該地區的市場份額顯著增長,而這又歸功於我們強大的分銷網絡,尤其是在高價值的奢侈品領域,以及我們受歡迎的品牌和強大的忠誠度平台。在美國,隨著需求增加,本季實現正營業利潤的管理飯店數量顯著增加。第二季約有 90% 的受訪者對共和黨持正面態度,高於上個季度的約 60%。隨著入住率的提高,我們正與世界各地的酒店業主緊密合作,力求在最大限度地提高酒店盈利能力的同時,提升賓客滿意度。我們正在認真考慮如何以及是否恢復在應對疫情高峰期被削減或取消的成本、項目和設施。

  • For example, we've already reinstated accountability for our intent to recommend scores with accountable brand standard audits resuming next year. We also introduced a new set of renovation rules, which will allow for additional deferrals of some renovations as well as reduced scopes for certain properties. We're considering how best to evolve housekeeping brand standards across each of our hotel brand tiers while ensuring guest expectations are met. We do believe that once business has fully recovered and operations are fully backed, there will be permanent areas of margin improvement, primarily related to our productivity enhancements and the increased use of contactless technologies such as mobile check-in and mobile key.

    例如,我們已經恢復了對我們推薦評分的問責機制,問責品牌標準審核將於明年恢復。我們還推出了一套新的裝修規則,允許對某些裝修項目進行進一步延期,並縮小某些房產的裝修範圍。我們正在考慮如何在確保滿足客人期望的同時,更好地提升我們各個酒店品牌級別的客房服務標準。我們相信,一旦業務完全恢復,營運得到全面支持,利潤率將出現永久性的提升空間,這主要與我們的生產力提升以及移動辦理入住和移動鑰匙等非接觸式技術的更多使用有關。

  • As we look ahead to the rest of the year, while we are keeping a close eye on variant strains, we're optimistic about the continued global recovery. Our momentum has continued into July, and we expect an uptick in business travel this fall. We expect that when improved ease of international travel occurs, that will also fuel further recovery in lodging demand.

    展望今年剩餘時間,雖然我們會密切關注變異毒株,但我們對全球疫情的持續復甦持樂觀態度。我們的成長動能延續到了7月份,我們預計今年秋季商務旅行將會增加。我們預計,隨著國際旅行便利性的提高,住宿需求也將進一步復甦。

  • While there's still too much uncertainty to be able to give specific RevPAR or earnings guidance, I'd like to provide color on specific items where we do have some visibility. Starting with the top line, at current RevPAR levels, we still expect the sensitivity of a 1-point change in full year 2021 RevPAR versus 2019 to be $35 million to $40 million of fees. As we've seen, the relationship is not linear given the variability of IMF. We expect our non-RevPAR-related fees to continue to benefit from strong co-brand credit card fees and robust fees from our branded resident sales. We still expect full year G&A to be roughly $800 million, significantly lower than in 2019, and interest expense is still anticipated to be around $430 million. Full year cash taxes are now expected to be $325 million to $350 million.

    雖然目前仍有太多不確定因素,無法給出具體的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 或盈利預測,但我希望就我們能夠有所了解的具體事項提供一些信息。首先來看總收入,按照目前的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 水平,我們預計 2021 年全年每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 與 2019 年相比每變化 1 個百分點,將導致 3500 萬美元至 4000 萬美元的費用。正如我們所看到的,考慮到國際貨幣基金組織的波動性,這種關係並非線性關係。我們預計,與RevPAR無關的費用將繼續受益於強勁的聯名信用卡費用和來自我們品牌住戶銷售的豐厚費用。我們仍預期全年一般及行政費用約為 8 億美元,遠低於 2019 年的水平,利息支出預計仍約為 4.3 億美元。預計全年現金稅收將達到 3.25 億美元至 3.5 億美元。

  • A key component of cash flow is the loyalty program. With the acceleration of leisure demand, we've continued to see redemption nights pick up nicely, especially in our resort destination. We remain focused on carefully controlling Bonvoy program administrative costs, and we still anticipate that full year cash flows from the loyalty program could be positive before factoring in the reduced payments we will receive from the credit card companies. After factoring in these reduced payments, which are expected to effectively repay around 1/3 of the total $920 million we received in 2020, we continue to expect that cash flows from loyalty overall could be modestly negative.

    現金流的關鍵組成部分是會員忠誠度計劃。隨著休閒需求的加速成長,我們看到兌換住宿晚數持續穩定上升,尤其是在我們的度假目的地。我們將繼續專注於嚴格控制萬豪旅享家計劃的管理成本,並且我們仍然預計,在不考慮信用卡公司減少付款的情況下,忠誠度計劃的全年現金流可能會為正。考慮到這些減少的付款(預計可有效償還我們在 2020 年收到的 9.2 億美元總額的約 1/3),我們仍然預計忠誠度帶來的現金流總體上可能會略微為負。

  • With better visibility and our continued disciplined approach to investment spending, we're lowering the top end of our full year investment spending expectation and narrowing the range to $575 million to $625 million. Total investment spending includes capital and technology expenditures, loan advances, contract acquisition costs and other investing activities.

    由於能見度提高,加上我們繼續採取嚴謹的投資支出方式,我們將全年投資支出預期上限下調,並將範圍縮小至 5.75 億美元至 6.25 億美元。總投資支出包括資本和技術支出、貸款預付款、合約獲取成本和其他投資活動。

  • We're focused on bringing our credit statistics back in line with our historically strong investment-grade levels. Our leverage ratios continue to improve as Marriott's asset-light business model is showing its resilient cash flow characteristics. We expect continued improvements in cash flow generation as the recovery progresses.

    我們正致力於將信用評級恢復到歷史上強勁的投資等級。隨著萬豪酒店集團輕資產商業模式展現出其穩健的現金流特性,我們的槓桿率持續改善。我們預計隨著經濟復甦的進行,現金流狀況將持續改善。

  • I also want to add my appreciation for our incredible team of global associates who have worked tirelessly throughout the pandemic. They truly exemplify the Marriott's spirit to serve and take care of culture. In closing, we could not be more pleased with our progress in the quarter, and we look forward to the continued return of guests to our 7,800 hotels around the world.

    我也要對我們遍佈全球的優秀同事團隊表示感謝,他們在整個疫情期間都孜孜不倦地工作。他們真正體現了萬豪酒店服務和關懷文化的精神。最後,我們對本季的進展感到非常滿意,並期待賓客繼續光臨我們在全球的 7,800 家酒店。

  • We're happy to take your questions. Operator?

    我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Shaun Kelley with BofA.

    (操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Shaun Kelley。

  • Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD

    Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD

  • I was wondering if we could just talk a little bit about the development environment. I was just hoping you can give us a little bit more color. Obviously, it looks like the NUG increase was primarily driven by reduction in deletions. But maybe help us look out a little further, '22, '23. How are the conversations going? And how do you think, excluding the SBC component, the outlook has looked or changes versus maybe 90 days ago?

    我想問我們是否可以稍微談談開發環境。我只是希望你能為我們增添一些色彩。顯然,NUG 的增加主要由缺失的減少所驅動。但或許可以幫助我們把目光放得更遠一些,2022年,2023年。談話進行得如何?撇開 SBC 部分不談,您認為與 90 天前相比,前景如何?或者說發生了哪些變化?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Of course. Thanks, Shaun. As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, we are increasingly confident in our ability to deliver at the top end of our range in '21. I think, when we look at factors like the number of rooms we have under construction, more than 200,000 rooms, the lowest fallout we've seen from the pipeline in about 3 years, the accelerated pace of conversions, we're increasingly optimistic that we can get back to a mid-single-digit net unit growth pace. But as you've seen with some of the data coming out of STR around the slowdown in U.S. construction starts, the reality is the impact of those reduced construction starts will make it challenging for us to get back to that mid-single-digit level over the next year or 2.

    當然。謝謝你,肖恩。正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所提到的,我們越來越有信心在 2021 年實現我們產品系列高端產品的交付。我認為,當我們考慮諸如在建客房數量(超過 20 萬間)、近 3 年來最低的在建項目流失率以及加速的改造速度等因素時,我們越來越樂觀地認為,我們可以恢復到個位數的中段淨增長速度。但正如你從 STR 的一些數據顯示美國建築開工量放緩時所看到的,現實情況是,這些建築開工量減少的影響將使我們在未來一兩年內難以恢復到個位數的水平。

  • Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD

    Shaun Clisby Kelley - MD

  • Tony, just as the follow-up, so mid-single digit being more of a medium-term target, but just for the next year or 2, construction starts probably limiting maybe a little bit below that range. Is that the way to think about it?

    Tony,作為後續報道,個位數中段更像是一個中期目標,但就未來一兩年而言,開工可能會限制實際數字略低於這個範圍。是這樣想的嗎?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I think that's right. I think we're guiding to about 3.5% net unit growth, excluding the impact of SVC in 2021. And then '22 and '23 will be the years that we think will be impacted by that drop in construction start activity in the U.S.

    是的,我覺得沒錯。我認為,在不考慮 SVC 的影響的情況下,我們預計 2021 年淨單位成長率約為 3.5%。然後,我們認為 2022 年和 2023 年將受到美國建築開工活動下降的影響。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Shaun, just one follow-up, and that's that we do believe that, while we are constrained by these lower construction starts that the industry has seen in the U.S., that we are going to be able to offset some of this through conversions. And we're really pleased with the pace of conversion signings and the conversations that we're seeing on that front. Hard to be specific at this point about exactly where that leaves us. But that, again, as Tony said, we're confident about getting back to the mid-single-digit rooms growth rate.

    肖恩,還有一個後續問題,那就是我們相信,儘管美國建築業開工量下降限制了我們的發展,但我們可以透過改建來彌補部分損失。我們對目前的轉會簽約速度以及這方面的洽談進展感到非常滿意。目前很難具體說明這會為我們帶來怎樣的影響。但正如托尼所說,我們有信心恢復到個位數中段的客房成長率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

    你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

  • Joseph Richard Greff - MD

    Joseph Richard Greff - MD

  • Just wondering, you touched on this a little bit in terms of the labor challenges and labor costs going up. So when we look at the 2Q results, and we're looking at your reported results, is there a lag in sort of the operating cost structure, particularly with labor relative to the revenue recovery? Is the exit rate coming out of the 2Q in cost structure, is that something that's more significant than the reported results because of potential lag?

    我只是想問一下,您剛才稍微提到了勞動力短缺和勞動成本上漲的問題。所以,當我們查看第二季業績,也就是你們公佈的業績時,營運成本結構,特別是勞動成本相對於營收復甦是否有滯後現象?第二季度成本結構中的退出率是否比已公佈的結果更重要,因為可能存在滯後效應?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, as you know, that's going to overwhelmingly show up in IMF, Joe, from a standpoint of kind of the way the quarter's operating profit works at the hotels. So -- and as you might imagine, with owners' priorities in the U.S., we didn't have a very high percentage of hotels earning incentive fees yet. The biggest growth in incentive fees was in Asia Pacific. And frankly, the labor cost pressures are much, much lower there. So honestly, I don't think that there is a meaningful impact at all relative to the really rapid increase in occupancy that then necessitated that we get our employment levels in the hotels up as quickly as possible. And as you said, I think there is a little bit of a lag there. But I don't think it had any sort of impact on the profits for the quarter.

    如你所知,喬,從酒店季度營業利潤的運作方式來看,這將在國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)中得到充分體現。所以——正如你可能想像的那樣,由於美國業主優先考慮的是酒店獎勵,當時獲得獎勵費用的酒店比例並不高。激勵費用成長最快的地區是亞太地區。坦白說,那裡的勞動成本壓力要小得多。所以老實說,我認為相對於入住率的快速增長(這迫使我們盡快提高酒店的就業水平),這根本沒有任何實質的影響。正如你所說,我認為這裡確實存在一些滯後。但我認為這並沒有對本季的利潤產生任何影響。

  • Joseph Richard Greff - MD

    Joseph Richard Greff - MD

  • Great. And then you mentioned a group pace for the first quarter and second quarter of next year, but maybe you gave it and I missed it, but did you talk about full year 2022 pace?

    偉大的。然後你提到了明年第一季和第二季的團隊配速,但也許你提到了但我錯過了,你有沒有談到 2022 年全年的配速?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Yes. The -- sorry, Joe. The -- yes, we talked a bit about '22 pace. And I think the -- there's a couple of encouraging things. When we look at booking pace, we continue to see volumes increasing pretty measurably into '22, and maybe just as encouraging, if not more encouraging, is the pace of ADR growth that we're seeing for '22 bookings. In fact, if you look at group bookings beyond -- in '22 and beyond, ADR is actually about 3% ahead of what we were booking back in '20 for the following year. So the ADR pricing power that we're seeing in group in '22 and beyond is very encouraging.

    是的。——抱歉,喬。是的,我們稍微談了一下 22 年的節奏。我覺得──有幾點令人鼓舞。從預訂速度來看,我們看到 2022 年的預訂量持續顯著成長,而 2022 年預訂的平均房價成長速度也同樣令人鼓舞,甚至更令人鼓舞。事實上,如果你看看 2022 年及以後的團體預訂,平均房價實際上比我們在 2020 年為下一年預訂的房價高出約 3%。因此,我們看到集團在 2022 年及以後的 ADR 定價能力非常令人鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Thomas Allen with Morgan Stanley.

    你的下一個問題來自托馬斯·艾倫在摩根士丹利的職位。

  • Thomas Glassbrooke Allen - Senior Analyst

    Thomas Glassbrooke Allen - Senior Analyst

  • Just -- you've seen some really encouraging trends out of China. Can you just talk about like the pluses and minuses of using China as a comp? Like how does your China business differ from kind of your global business?

    只是——你已經看到了來自中國的一些非常令人鼓舞的趨勢。能談談以中國作為參考對像有哪些優點和缺點嗎?例如,你的中國業務與你的全球業務有何不同?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • So Thomas, it's a good question, and I'll say a couple of things. I think one of the things that is the most consistent in Greater China and the U.S. is the reality that the overwhelming percentage of travelers that stay at our hotels in those 2 regions are domestic. And so we're seeing -- obviously, you're seeing some of the same trends in the U.S. that we saw earlier in Mainland China, which is that when people feel comfortable to travel, the demand picks up really, really quickly, albeit with leisure being the strongest. And clearly, that is quite helpful for the hotel's occupancy levels because they're not traveling outside their country. But I will say that I think the trends have been remarkably similar in terms of the pace of ADR recovery at the same time.

    湯瑪斯,你問得好,我來說幾點。我認為大中華區和美國最一致的一點是,這兩個地區入住我們飯店的旅客絕大多數都是國內旅客。因此,我們看到——顯然,在美國也出現了一些與我們之前在中國大陸看到的相同的趨勢,那就是當人們感到可以安心旅行時,需求就會迅速回升,儘管休閒旅遊的需求最為強勁。顯然,這對提高飯店入住率非常有幫助,因為他們沒有出國旅行。但我認為,就 ADR 復甦的速度而言,兩者的趨勢非常相似。

  • And I think the other thing that I'll point out that is interesting is that in Mainland China you do see markets, when they do have a pop in some COVID cases, they do shut down demand very quickly because the cities are closed down. We haven't obviously seen that same impact in the U.S. because the population is more varied in terms of kind of the travel and the way cities are shut down or not shut down. So in that regard, it's perhaps been a little bit more fluid in the U.S. But we have seen really terrific similarities in these markets where the occupancy is so much based on domestic travel.

    我認為另一點有趣的是,在中國大陸,當市場出現一些新冠病例激增時,由於城市封鎖,需求很快就會下降。顯然,我們在美國還沒有看到同樣的衝擊,因為美國的人口在出行方式以及城市是否關閉方面更加多樣化。所以從這個角度來看,美國的情況可能會比較靈活一些。但我們已經看到,在這些入住率很大程度上取決於國內旅行的市場中,存在著非常驚人的相似之處。

  • I think the other thing I'll point out is that the F&B recovery in Greater China, I think, does point out the real strength of our hotel brands there and that, I think, has been really impressive as well.

    我認為另一點需要指出的是,大中華區餐飲業的復甦,確實凸顯了我們酒店品牌在當地的真正實力,這一點也令人印象深刻。

  • Thomas Glassbrooke Allen - Senior Analyst

    Thomas Glassbrooke Allen - Senior Analyst

  • Just a quick follow-up. You mentioned RevPAR was down 16% in July versus 2019. Is that U.S. only? Or is that global? And if it's one of them, can you give us the other too?

    再補充一點。您提到7月的每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)比2019年同期下降了16%。僅限美國嗎?還是這是全球性的?如果是其中之一,您能把另一個也給我們嗎?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • That's U.S. only.

    僅限美國。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Thomas Glassbrooke Allen - Senior Analyst

    Thomas Glassbrooke Allen - Senior Analyst

  • Do you have a global number?

    你有全球通行證嗎?

  • Jackie Burka McConagha - SVP of IR

    Jackie Burka McConagha - SVP of IR

  • We don't have global number.

    我們沒有全球統一編號。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • No, we don't. And that was just for the first 3.5 weeks. Just to be clear, that wasn't for the month of July. As you know, this is all in real-time that we're pulling this together, so we don't have all those numbers quite yet. And again, as we said, that was for the U.S.

    不,我們沒有。而這僅僅是前3.5週的情況。需要說明的是,那不是指七月的情況。如您所知,這一切都是我們正在即時匯總的,所以我們還沒有所有的數據。正如我們所說,那指的是美國。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • I have a question about margins. But first, if I could just clarify Tony's comment about guidance for this year for unit growth at 3.5%. I thought I heard him say excluding the Service Properties Trust. But you meant including that, right?

    我有一個關於邊距的問題。但首先,我想澄清一下 Tony 關於今年單位成長預期為 3.5% 的評論。我好像聽到他說不包括服務地產信託基金。但你的意思是要把那部分也包括進去,對吧?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Sorry. That's right. So excluding the impact of SVC, our guidance would be 4% to 4.5%, and we guide to the high end of that. If you account for the impact of those 88 SVC hotels, it would be 3% to 3.5%, and we're guiding towards the high end of that range. That's correct. Sorry if I misspoke.

    是的。對不起。這是正確的。因此,如果不考慮 SVC 的影響,我們的預期成長率為 4% 至 4.5%,我們預期成長率將達到上限。如果將這 88 家 SVC 酒店的影響考慮在內,則為 3% 至 3.5%,我們預計會接近該範圍的上限。沒錯。如果我說錯了,請見諒。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to clarify that. And is -- the sort of higher end of the 3% to 3.5% range from fewer removals, is it a timing factor? Or in other words -- or were there properties that sort of were not maybe in compliance with brand standards that came back into compliance and won't be removed in 2021? Or is it just that some of the removals are sort of pushed into '22?

    我只是想澄清一下。移除次數較少,導致移除率在 3% 到 3.5% 的範圍內偏高,這是否與時間因素有關?換句話說——或者說,是否有一些房產之前可能不符合品牌標準,但後來又符合標準,因此不會在 2021 年被移除?或者說,只是有些移除工作被延後到了 2022 年?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • No. I think really, Robin, it's a by-product of as the year advances we have more and more visibility on both fronts in terms of the timing of the individual openings and the status of projects going out -- potentially going out of the system.

    不。羅賓,我認為這實際上是隨著時間推移,我們對各個專案的開放時間和專案狀態(可能退出系統)這兩個方面越來越了解的副產品。

  • Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

    Robin Margaret Farley - MD and Research Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then the margin clarification -- or question. Maybe you mentioned 200 basis points ahead of 2019, I think it was for -- in Greater China. And I think when you've talked about potential for margin improvement in the U.S., you've maybe sort of said you wouldn't necessarily expect a big increase or big change in the margin when RevPAR is recovered. Is that still the case? In other words, should we think about the -- some of the -- this sort of 200 basis points of margin in the example you used in China? Is that kind of temporary maybe because brand standards aren't what they were in 2019? Or I'm just trying to square that with your sort of previous comments.

    好的。偉大的。然後是補充說明——或者問題。你之前提到過 2019 年之前的 200 個基點,我想那是指大中華區。我認為,當您談到美國利潤率提升的潛力時,您可能已經說過,即使 RevPAR 恢復,您也不一定會期望利潤率大幅增長或大幅變化。現在情況仍然如此嗎?換句話說,我們是否應該考慮一下——就像你在中國舉的例子中提到的——這種 200 個基點的利潤空間?這或許只是暫時的,因為品牌標準已經不如 2019 年高了?或者我只是想把這和你之前的評論連結起來。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure, sure. So a couple of things. First of all, I was speaking about Mainland China. And there, I think the interesting thing is that, with RevPAR back to essentially similar levels in 2019, we are producing GOP margins that are 200 basis points better. So I think that shows you some of the work that we've been able to do on the cost-management side and productivity enhancement side that would tell you that those are kind of good margins to think about going forward.

    當然,當然。有兩件事。首先,我指的是中國大陸。我認為有趣的是,儘管 2019 年的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 基本上恢復到了類似的水平,但我們的營業利潤率卻提高了 200 個基點。所以我認為這顯示我們在成本管理和生產力提升方面取得了一些成果,也說明這些都是值得我們未來考慮的良好利潤空間。

  • I think in the U.S., Robin, the interesting thing here is that we've got a lot of those similar productivity and cost enhancements that we've done here, which would lead you to some similar sort of conclusions. I think the thing you have to think about is how quickly do labor costs and benefit cost increase. So as we talked about before, if ADR recovers really quickly, and you've got these productivity and cost enhancements in place, you've probably got a similar opportunity in the U.S. for those similar kinds of numbers that we talked about in Mainland China. But again, a lot of this depends on how quickly it all comes back in the U.S. and also what's going on with wage rates and benefit costs.

    羅賓,我認為在美國,有趣的是,我們在這裡也做了很多類似的提高生產力和降低成本的措施,這會讓你得出一些類似的結論。我認為你需要考慮的是勞動成本和福利成本的成長速度。正如我們之前討論的那樣,如果 ADR 能夠迅速復蘇,並且你已經採取了這些提高生產力和降低成本的措施,那麼你在美國可能也會有類似的機遇,獲得與我們在中國大陸討論的類似的數字。但話說回來,這一切很大程度上取決於美國經濟復甦的速度,以及薪資水平和福利成本的變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Smedes Rose with Citi.

    你的下一個問題來自 Smedes Rose 與 Citi 的合作計畫。

  • Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst

    Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst

  • I was just hoping you could give a little more color on the kind of the composition of the group improvement you're seeing in '22, maybe any changes on a regional basis, maybe potentially away from larger, higher-cost cities or if you're seeing anything just in terms of the kind of corporations or they tend to be smaller. Is it larger? Maybe just some color on what you're seeing on any kind of forward bookings.

    我只是希望您能更詳細地介紹一下您在 2022 年看到的集團改進情況,也許在區域層面上有任何變化,也許有可能遠離規模更大、成本更高的城市,或者您是否看到公司類型方面有任何變化,或者它們往往規模較小。它更大嗎?或許可以對你看到的任何類型的預訂情況做一些補充說明。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Sure. So as you know, group is a complex group of subsets of types of groups. Where we're seeing really significant acceleration is on social. In fact, in many ways, social group demand is largely back to pre-pandemic levels. We are not seeing rapid recovery in citywides yet, the sort of big-box convention hotel citywides that we enjoyed pre-pandemic. And then the fall, I think, will be quite telling as we look for more conventional corporate group demand to return. The only other comment I might make, Smedes, is that we are seeing in the year for the year group bookings stronger than what we've typically experienced in a pre-pandemic environment.

    當然。如你所知,群體是由多種類型的群體的子集組成的複雜群體。我們看到真正顯著加速成長的領域是社群媒體。事實上,從許多方面來看,社交群體的需求基本上已經恢復到疫情前的水準。我們還沒有看到城市會議飯店的快速復甦,也沒有看到像疫情前那樣的大型會議飯店城市會議飯店的快速復甦。我認為,隨著秋季到來,我們將看到更傳統的企業團體需求回歸,這將具有相當重要的指示意義。斯梅德斯,我唯一想補充的是,我們看到今年的團體預訂量比疫情前通常的情況要高。

  • Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst

    Smedes Rose - Director & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And can I just ask -- just to kind of follow up on the question about margin. As you guys make decisions around housekeeping, would that be kind of the key driver for potential margin improvement for owners is possible the elimination or significant reduction in housekeeping? Or are there other items on the table that would be very important towards potentially driving margin expansion at the property level?

    好的。可以再問一下──就利潤率這個問題做個後續說明嗎?當你們制定有關客房服務的決策時,取消或大幅減少客房服務是否會成為提高業主利潤率的關鍵驅動因素?或者,還有其他一些對推動物業層面利潤率成長至關重要的因素嗎?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Smedes, you can expect us to continue to try to strike the right balance between the expectations of our guests as they get back on the road and the financial realities that our owners and franchisees face. We'll continue to be guided by guest preference. And it is quite interesting when you read some of the verbatims that we hear from our guests. Some of our guests that are dipping their toes back into travel are still a bit hesitant about having housekeepers in the room, and they appreciate the choice of housekeeping at their discretion. Others are vaccinated and feeling encouraged about the safety of travel, and they would prefer a more conventional housekeeping solution. And so I think whether it's housekeeping protocols, whether it's food and beverage service, we'll continue to evaluate and evolve those service levels by market and by quality tier around the world.

    Smedes,您可以期待我們繼續努力,在滿足顧客重返旅途的期望和滿足業主及加盟商面臨的財務現實之間取得適當的平衡。我們將繼續以顧客喜好為指導。當你閱讀我們從嘉賓那裡聽到的一些原話時,你會覺得非常有趣。有些客人正在重新開始旅行,他們仍然對客房服務人員進出房間有些猶豫,他們很欣賞我們可以讓他們自行選擇是否提供客房服務。其他人已經接種了疫苗,對旅行的安全性感到鼓舞,他們更喜歡傳統的家政服務方式。因此,我認為無論是客房清潔規程,還是餐飲服務,我們都將繼續根據全球市場和品質等級來評估和改善這些服務水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.

    你的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬‧格林布林。

  • Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

    Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

  • So you mentioned a number of things about the Bonvoy brand extensions and creating value there as well as the strength of non-RevPAR-related fees, including the credit card fees. How do you think about the growth of this segment going forward? And how closely it's tied or not tied to kind of a core business, whether that's net unit growth or RevPAR, going forward?

    所以您提到了很多關於 Bonvoy 品牌延伸和創造價值的事情,以及與 RevPAR 無關的費用(包括信用卡費用)的優勢。您如何看待這一細分市場未來的成長?以及它與核心業務(無論是淨銷售成長還是每間可供出租客房收入)的關聯程度如何?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • So just broadly speaking, the non-RevPAR fees, Stephen, are made up of kind of a variety of things. But the biggest chunk of them that make up, again, when you think about it going back to 2019, call it, $579 million, the biggest chunk is obviously the credit cards. And that is going to overwhelmingly relate to both the number of cardholders and the amount they spend on their co-brand cards. And as we talked about today, their spending has actually gone back to 2019 levels, and you saw the similar thing happened to our co-brand fees. So I think both the power of Bonvoy combined with kind of general level of consumer spend and health of the economy, particularly obviously, the U.S. since these fees are overwhelmingly driven by the U.S. cardholders, is how you should think about that. I think you're going to continue to see outsized growth in our residential branding fees, although they are obviously meaningfully smaller. But timeshare fees is much more of a stable number because, as you know, those are overwhelmingly fixed. So I think the biggest driver is really how you think about consumer credit card spend on our co-brand cards.

    總的來說,Stephen,非RevPAR費用是由各種各樣的東西組成的。但其中最大的一部分,也就是,如果你回顧 2019 年的數據,大約 5.79 億美元,顯然是信用卡造成的損失。而這主要取決於持卡人的數量以及他們在聯名卡上的消費金額。正如我們今天所討論的,他們的支出實際上已經回到了 2019 年的水平,而我們的聯名費用也出現了類似的情況。所以我認為,你應該從萬豪旅享家的實力,以及消費者支出的總體水平和經濟健康狀況(尤其是美國經濟,因為這些費用主要由美國持卡人推動)來考慮這個問題。我認為,儘管住宅品牌推廣費用明顯低於其他費用,但你仍會看到住宅品牌推廣費用的大幅成長。但分時度假費用是一個相對穩定的數字,因為如你所知,這些費用絕大多數都是固定的。所以我認為最大的驅動因素實際上是您如何看待消費者在我們聯名卡上的信用卡消費。

  • Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

    Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

  • So I guess, as a follow-up, is there an opportunity to monetize or generate credit card fees or other types of fees in the international markets where it hasn't been as much of a contributor?

    所以我想進一步探討一下,在國際市場上,信用卡手續費或其他類型的費用尚未成為主要收入來源,那麼是否存在透過信用卡手續費或其他類型的費用來獲利的機會呢?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. No, they are just -- they're meaningfully smaller depending on kind of the economic structure of the credit card business in those various countries. And obviously, the U.S. is a very, very large market. So yes, we are, and we expect to continue to see increases in our international credit card co-brand card fees. And as we talked about in this insurance, travel insurance business that we're entering into, we should also be able to benefit there as well. But I would not expect them to be meaningful in terms of Marriott's overall earnings stream.

    是的。不,它們只是——根據各國信用卡業務的經濟結構,它們的規模要小得多。顯然,美國是一個非常非常大的市場。是的,我們預期國際信用卡聯名卡費用將繼續上漲。正如我們之前討論過的,在我們即將進入的保險,特別是旅遊保險業務中,我們也應該能夠從中受益。但我預計它們對萬豪酒店的整體收益流不會產生任何實質影響。

  • Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

    Stephen White Grambling - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And if I can sneak one other follow-up on just on the IMFs. You referenced that only a few North America properties are kind of above that under priority level. Is there any kind of level of occupancy recovery or specific markets that we really need to see to start seeing those start to be earned again?

    偉大的。如果我能再補充一點關於國際貨幣基金組織的後續問題就好了。您提到,只有少數北美房產的優先順序高於這個水準。我們需要看到入住率恢復到什麼程度,或是特定市場達到什麼水平,才能開始重新獲得收益?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, honestly, they range all over the map. Just to give you a sense, when you go back to 2019, we basically were in a position where our full-service hotels, about half of them were earning incentive fees. And overall, for the U.S., it was, call it, 56% when you take in our limited service. And there, you obviously had occupancies up into the 70s. But otherwise, I will say it's a big mishmash depending on the specifics. The counter to that is, as we described in Greater China, where we're at 77% earning in the year-to-date numbers for IMF, and back in '19, it was at 86%. So you can see that they behave much more in line with base fees. While in the U.S., you really have a ways to go before we get back to earning meaningful incentive fees from the U.S.

    說實話,它們分佈範圍非常廣。為了讓大家有個概念,回顧 2019 年,我們當時的情況是,我們旗下大約一半的全服務飯店都在賺取獎勵費用。總的來說,考慮到我們有限的服務,美國的整體比例大概是 56%。顯然,那裡的入住率高達 70% 以上。但除此之外,我會說情況比較複雜,具體還要看具體情況。與之相反的是,正如我們在大中華區所描述的那樣,根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)今年迄今的數據,我們的盈利率為 77%,而 2019 年這一數字為 86%。所以你可以看出,它們的表現比較符合基本收費標準。而就美國而言,我們距離重新從美國獲得有意義的激勵費用還有很長的路要走。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jefferies.

    你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 公司的 David Katz。

  • David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure

    David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure

  • I wanted to take a little longer-term look, Leeny, and wonder what would have to happen and how you might be thinking about getting back into the capital returns game and whether we'd have a shot at maybe recommending a dividend by the end of the year and how you might be thinking about the setup for these items next year, which is sort of what we're used to with Marriott.

    Leeny,我想從更長遠的角度來看待這個問題,想知道接下來會發生什麼,以及你打算如何重返資本回報領域,我們是否有可能在年底前建議派發股息,以及你打算如何安排明年的這些事項,這有點像我們過去在萬豪酒店集團的做法。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. Absolutely. I think, as you pointed out, David, we're seeing tremendous progress. Our credit ratios are absolutely improving literally month by month, and we're really pleased with the progress. First and foremost, we want to get our credit ratios back in line with being a strong investment-grade credit. That is the first priority, and we are well on our way. And so I do think we're going to be talking about capital return sooner rather than later.

    當然。絕對地。正如你所指出的,大衛,我們看到了巨大的進步。我們的信貸比率確實在逐月改善,我們對此進展感到非常滿意。首先,我們希望將信用比率恢復到強勁的投資等級。這是首要任務,我們正朝著這個目標穩步前進。所以我認為我們遲早都要討論資本回報的問題了。

  • As you know, David, so much of this is around the pace of continued global vaccination rates as well as restrictions on travel and consumers' comfort with travel, both domestically and internationally, as well as people returning to their offices, et cetera. So as we said, we can't predict and give you RevPAR and earnings outlooks in specifics. But if we continue to see really strong progress like we have been seeing, we could absolutely imagine that we're talking about capital return later on in '22. Exactly when we're able to count on that and have a discussion with our Board on that topic remains to be seen, but you certainly can envision a scenario that, assuming things continue to progress, that, that is the case.

    大衛,正如你所知,這一切都與全球疫苗接種率的持續增長速度、旅行限制、消費者對國內和國際旅行的舒適度、人們重返辦公室等因素有關。正如我們所說,我們無法預測並具體給出每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)和盈利前景。但是,如果我們繼續看到像現在這樣強勁的進展,我們完全可以想像,到 2022 年晚些時候,我們將討論資本回報。我們何時才能指望這一點,並與董事會就此議題進行討論,目前還不得而知,但你當然可以想像,如果事情繼續發展下去,情況就會如此。

  • David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure

    David Brian Katz - MD and Senior Equity Analyst of Gaming, Lodging & Leisure

  • If I can follow that up, 3 to 3.5x was usually the target. Is there any qualification around that, that we should be thinking about today?

    如果我能跟上進度,通常目標是 3 到 3.5 倍。關於這一點,我們今天應該考慮哪些限定條件?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • No. Except to say that we, again, would want to feel like we are squarely staying there, i.e., that the market is -- the lodging recovery has stabilized, that things have gotten to a position where reaching that 3 to 3.5 is something that we foresee being very solid going forward. But I think that other than that no additional constraints.

    不。我們只想再次強調,我們希望感覺自己穩穩地待在那裡,也就是說,市場——住宿業的復甦已經穩定下來,情況已經發展到一定程度,我們預計未來達到 3% 到 3.5% 的水平將非常穩固。但我認為除此之外沒有其他限制。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

    你的下一個問題源自於理查克拉克與伯恩斯坦的對話。

  • Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst

    Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst

  • Just want to ask a quick question on the gap between your gross and net unit growth. I think you've done about 19,900 exits in the first half. And if I look at the gap between your net unit growth, that would imply you need to do about -- a bit more than 15,000 exits in the second half. That's about double what you did in the second half of 2019 and actually even ahead of the exits you had in the second half of 2020. So is there anything in particular -- anything particular that's coming out there? Is it just conservative? Or anything you could mention on that?

    我想快速問一下關於你們毛銷量成長和淨銷量成長之間的差距的問題。我認為你在上半年完成了大約 19900 次出口。如果我看一下你的淨單位成長與上半年的差距,那就意味著你需要在下半年實現大約 15,000 多場退出。這大約是你在 2019 年下半年所取得成績的兩倍,甚至超過了你在 2020 年下半年的成績。那麼,有沒有什麼特別的事情──有什麼特別的事情即將發生嗎?它只是保守派嗎?或是您還有什麼想補充的嗎?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • No. I mean I think we continue to expect to see deletions for the full year in that 1% to 1.5% rate. They -- excluding the impact of SVC, obviously, in terms of baseline deletions, they tend to ebb and flow a little bit from quarter-to-quarter. But on a full year basis, we are increasingly comfortable with that guidance of 1% to 1.5% deletions, excluding SVC.

    不。我的意思是,我認為我們預計全年刪除率仍將保持在 1% 到 1.5% 之間。顯然,撇開 SVC 的影響不談,就基線刪除而言,它們往往會在每個季度之間略有波動。但從全年來看,我們越來越認同 1% 到 1.5% 的刪除率預期(不包括 SVC)。

  • Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst

    Richard J. Clarke - Research Analyst

  • Okay. That make sense. So are you saying that the deletions in Q2, the sort of 2,000 or so, 2,500 exits, that's a particularly low number and there might be a bit of a catch-up from that in the second half?

    好的。這說得通。所以你的意思是說,第二季的裁員,大約 2000 到 2500 人,這個數字特別低,下半年可能會有所彌補?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, they do -- they are really quite variable during the year. You could have one quarter with 7,000. You could have one quarter with 1,000. So it's really -- it varies. And we do look at this region by region very carefully and looking at expirations and how things are going. So it is -- continues to be, as Tony said, it continues to be our best estimate at this point. It is clearly better than where we were earlier in the year because, again, we had a wider range that we were considering, and we have been able to firm up that range so that we feel better to say that we will be in the space that says we'd be at the top end of that 3% to 3.5% range. And I should add, part of the comfort around that is with the openings as well that we have greater visibility on the openings, and we're extremely pleased with the openings in the second quarter and year-to-date.

    是的,它們確實會——它們在一年中變化很大。你可以用7000元買一個季度。你可以用 1000 元買一個季度。所以這真的——因情況而異。我們會非常仔細地逐一地區進行考察,關注到期情況以及進展情況。所以,正如托尼所說,目前這仍然是我們最好的估計。這顯然比我們年初的情況要好,因為當時我們考慮的範圍更廣,而現在我們已經能夠確定這個範圍,所以我們更有信心說,我們將處於 3% 到 3.5% 範圍的上限。我還要補充一點,這方面的部分原因在於,我們對開業情況有了更清晰的了解,我們對第二季和今年迄今的開幕都非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Dori Kesten with Wells Fargo.

    你的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Dori Kesten。

  • Dori Lynn Kesten - Senior Analyst

    Dori Lynn Kesten - Senior Analyst

  • Given the trends that you've seen in new signings, the opening schedule, when would you expect to see the pipeline resume quarter-over-quarter growth? I think, in the last downturn, you saw about 6 quarters of compression.

    根據您觀察到的新簽約趨勢和開業計劃,您預計何時才能看到專案儲備恢復季度環比增長?我認為,在上一次經濟衰退中,經濟經歷了大約六個季度的壓縮。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Again, I might give a different version of the answer I just gave on deletions. The pipeline tends to ebb and flow a little bit. Some of the indicators we look at, development committee volume, for instance, and we are starting to see an acceleration in our volume of deals, particularly in June and July, in our biggest markets, specifically in the U.S. and Canada and in China. And I think that is encouraging for us.

    是的。同樣,關於刪除操作,我可能會給出與剛才不同的答案。管道的水位往往會略有波動。我們關注的一些指標,例如開發委員會的數量,我們開始看到交易量加速成長,尤其是在 6 月和 7 月,在我們最大的市場,特別是美國、加拿大和中國。我認為這對我們來說是個鼓舞人心的消息。

  • The other thing is, remember, more than 25% of our volume right now is in conversions. And because of the quick turn on those conversions, often, those get signed and opened and never even make their way into the pipeline. And so that adds to some of the quarter-to-quarter variability as well.

    另外,請記住,我們目前超過 25% 的業務量都來自轉換。由於這些轉換速度很快,通常情況下,這些合約被簽署和打開後,甚至沒有進入銷售流程。因此,這也加劇了季度間的波動。

  • Dori Lynn Kesten - Senior Analyst

    Dori Lynn Kesten - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And can you just remind us what the difference is in fees between a -- between your pipeline that's luxury versus flex service on average?

    好的。您能否提醒我們一下,貴公司提供的豪華管道服務和普通靈活管道之間的費用平均有何區別?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Sorry. The difference in fees, you said?

    對不起。您說的是費用差異?

  • Dori Lynn Kesten - Senior Analyst

    Dori Lynn Kesten - Senior Analyst

  • Yes, like the long-term expectations of what a risk can own for you guys versus a Residence Inn?

    是的,例如你們對風險的長期預期,以及入住 Residence Inn 飯店可能帶來的影響?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Sure. I mean, setting aside the fact that there can be pretty wide variations from market to market, the rule of thumb we've shared in the past is that a luxury hotel stabilized annual fees could be as much as 10x the annual fees of a select-service hotel like a Fairfield Inn.

    當然。我的意思是,撇開市場之間可能存在的較大差異不談,我們過去分享的經驗法則是,豪華酒店的穩定年費可能是像 Fairfield Inn 這樣的精選服務酒店年費的 10 倍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Michael Bellisario with Baird.

    你的下一個問題來自 Michael Bellisario 與 Baird 的對話。

  • Michael Joseph Bellisario - VP & Senior Research Analyst

    Michael Joseph Bellisario - VP & Senior Research Analyst

  • Just 2-part questions. I wanted to focus on Bonvoy. I'm not sure you mentioned it. What was the occupancy contribution during the quarter? And then the bigger-picture question, maybe just -- how are you thinking about further broadening the platform and value proposition for guests? Is there any renewed interest in travel adjacencies, partnerships or any other brand holes in the portfolio -- the brand portfolio that you're seeing? Really just kind of what are your plans to add more value for customers as everyone seems to be fighting for a greater share of everyone's travel wallet today?

    只有兩個部分的問題。我想專注於萬豪旅享家。我不確定你是否提到過這件事。本季入住率貢獻是多少?那麼,從更宏觀的角度來看,或許可以這樣問──您打算如何進一步拓展平台,提升為客人提供的價值主張?您是否對旅遊相關業務、合作夥伴關係或您目前看到的品牌組合中的任何其他品牌空白重新產生了興趣?你們究竟有什麼計畫可以為客戶增加更多價值?如今,似乎每個人都在爭奪消費者旅行預算的更大份額。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Great. Well, let me try to take both of those, and Leeny may chime in as well. On your first question, Bonvoy penetration continues to recover. In Q2, we were almost 50%, 49.5% to be precise. That was a significant increase. We went as low as about 43% at the bottom of the pandemic, but it's still a couple of points shy of where we were pre-pandemic at about 52%. But the pace of penetration recovery, I think, is quite encouraging.

    偉大的。好,我試著回答這兩個問題,Leeny 也可能參與討論。關於你的第一個問題,萬豪旅享家的滲透率持續回升。第二季度,我們的佔比接近 50%,準確來說是 49.5%。這是一個顯著的增長。在疫情最嚴重的時候,我們的感染率一度低至 43% 左右,但仍比疫情前的 52% 左右低了幾個百分點。但我認為,滲透率恢復的速度相當令人鼓舞。

  • And then on your second question, I think we continue to look for opportunities to make the program stickier to engage with our customers even as they start to get back into travel, and we tried to give you a few examples. I think the new travel insurance program is an example. The Uber partnership, I think, is a terrific example. The new branded credit cards are a good example. And then just the number of app downloads that we're seeing with the Marriott Bonvoy app, I think all of those point to our efforts and the success of those efforts in trying to grow engagement among our Bonvoy members.

    至於你的第二個問題,我認為我們會繼續尋找機會,讓該計劃更具吸引力,即使我們的客戶開始恢復旅行,我們也努力為你提供一些例子。我認為新的旅遊保險計劃就是一個例子。我認為,優步的合作就是一個很好的例子。新推出的品牌信用卡就是一個很好的例子。此外,我們看到萬豪旅享家應用程式的下載量也證明了這一點,我認為所有這些都表明了我們在提高旅享家會員參與度方面所做的努力和取得的成功。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Vince Ciepiel with Cleveland Research.

    你的下一個問題來自克里夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel。

  • Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

    Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

  • A lot of mine have been answered, but one thing I'm trying to get a little bit more clarity on, as it relates to your perspective, the trajectory of U.S. RevPAR, I think you mentioned the first few weeks of July down only 16%, ADR impressive, only down 2%. It sounds like leisure is really contributing nicely to that. I'm just curious how you're thinking about the handoff through the second half from leisure into more corporate and group and just how sustainable that July run rate is.

    我的許多問題都得到了解答,但有一件事我想更清楚地了解,就你的觀點而言,關於美國每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 的走勢,我想你提到過 7 月的前幾週只下降了 16%,平均房價 (ADR) 令人印象深刻,只下降了 2%。聽起來休閒活動確實對此起到了很好的促進作用。我只是好奇您是如何考慮下半年從休閒旅遊過渡到企業和團體旅遊的,以及7月份的客流量增長速度是否可持續。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Well, certainly, the fall is going to be fascinating to watch as more and more schools open for in-person learning, as more and more companies get back to the office. I think the data that is perhaps most telling from our perspective is some of the statistics we shared with you on special corporate bookings. As we mentioned, those bookings rose 23% in June as we compare to May. And then again, it's just the first 3.5 weeks of July, but we saw another 27% increase in those first 3.5 weeks of July versus the same 3.5 weeks in June. And so the magnitude and the steadiness of the growth in special corporate bookings, I think, is quite encouraging.

    當然,隨著越來越多的學校恢復線下授課,越來越多的公司重返辦公室,秋季的情況一定會非常值得關注。我認為從我們的角度來看,最能說明問題的數據或許是我們與您分享的一些關於特殊企業預訂的統計數據。正如我們之前提到的,6 月的預訂量比 5 月增加了 23%。而且,雖然這只是 7 月的前 3.5 週,但與 6 月的同期相比,7 月的前 3.5 週又增加了 27%。因此,我認為,特殊企業預訂的成長規模和穩定性是相當令人鼓舞的。

  • And then you've heard us talk about this before. This blending of trip purpose continues to be a real and measurable phenomenon. And we think it's good for our business, and we think it will continue well beyond the end of the pandemic. With all that said, we will continue to be vigilant as we watch the pace of vaccinations around the world, the effectiveness of those vaccinations relative to the Delta variant and monitor the impacts of that on our business.

    而你們之前也聽過我們談過這件事。旅行目的的融合仍然是一種真實存在的、可衡量的現象。我們認為這對我們的業務有好處,我們認為這種情況會在疫情結束後繼續持續下去。綜上所述,我們將繼續保持警惕,密切關注世界各地的疫苗接種速度、這些疫苗相對於 Delta 變種的有效性,並監測這對我們業務的影響。

  • Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

    Vince Charles Ciepiel - Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. And one follow-up, if I may. With that ADR number in July, I think the recovery in ADR has been progressing really nicely and probably better than a lot of folks thought going into this year. Curious, what do you attribute that progress in ADR to? And how sustainable do you think that is through the second half?

    偉大的。如果可以的話,我還有一個後續問題。根據 7 月的 ADR 數據來​​看,我認為 ADR 的復甦進展非常順利,可能比許多人年初預期的還要好。很好奇,您認為ADR(替代性爭議解決)領域的進展歸功於什麼?你認為這種勢頭能持續到下半年嗎?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Well, we certainly look at the pace at which demand is recovering and the amount of pent-up demand is maybe best illustrated by the pricing power we're seeing in rate. We knew we'd have that in leisure, but it's really encouraging to see that pricing power extend to both business transient and group. And in China, obviously, we've seen ADR come back at the same time. And so you throw all that in the blender, it's really encouraging, and I think it's just driven by the sheer volume of demand.

    當然,我們會關注需求復甦的速度,而積壓的需求量或許最好地體現在我們從利率中看到的定價能力上。我們知道休閒旅遊領域會有這樣的優勢,但看到這種定價權擴展到商務散客和團體旅遊領域,真的令人鼓舞。顯然,在中國,我們也看到了ADR的回歸。所以把所有這些因素綜合起來考慮,結果非常令人鼓舞,我認為這完全是由巨大的需求量所驅動的。

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • The only other thing I'll add to that is the reality that so much of this depends on macroeconomic factors. And so as consumer confidence and consumer spending and general economic growth continue, that will be an important part of being able to continue to see this growth in demand. And that has also always had an impact on how companies do their group bookings, do their business trips, et cetera. And that is another element of this price power.

    我唯一要補充的是,這一切都很大程度取決於宏觀經濟因素。因此,隨著消費者信心、消費支出和整體經濟成長的持續,這將是能夠繼續看到需求成長的重要因素。這也一直對公司如何進行團體預訂、商務旅行等產生影響。這是價格權力的另一個要素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from the line of Bill Crow with Raymond James.

    你的下一個問題來自比爾克勞和雷蒙詹姆斯的合作系列。

  • William Andrew Crow - Analyst

    William Andrew Crow - Analyst

  • First, a clarification. I think it was Smedes that asked about 2022 group segmentation. And I think your answer was about -- it was largely a social with little evidence of citywides coming back. Was that really more about 2021? Or is that still 2022?

    首先,需要澄清一點。我認為是 Smedes 問到了 2022 年的群體細分問題。我認為你的回答是關於——這主要是一場社交活動,幾乎沒有證據表明全市範圍內的活動正在恢復。那真的更多的是關於2021年嗎?還是那還是2022年?

  • Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

    Kathleen Kelly Oberg - Executive VP & CFO

  • We'll get Jackie to get back to you with super specific, but I think the reality, Bill, overall, if you're still seeing big chunks of association, corporate and government nights in 2022. But at the margin, where we're seeing the strongest kind of in the period for the period demand is in both the smaller and medium-sized groups as well as the social groups, where, in many cases, they've put off having events for a year and now coming forward. But again, when we think about the big chunks of business, we've still got -- I mean, I'm sure you've heard from Gaylord about their bookings. There's still a wide swath across all the big segments of group business for 2022.

    我們會讓 Jackie 盡快回覆你,提供非常具體的訊息,但我認為現實情況是,Bill,總的來說,如果你在 2022 年仍然看到大量的協會、企業和政府活動。但就邊緣群體而言,我們看到在此期間需求最為強勁的群體是中小型團體以及社交團體,在許多情況下,他們已經推遲舉辦活動一年之久,現在才開始行動。但話說回來,當我們考慮業務的大塊部分時,我們仍然有——我的意思是,我相信你們都從蓋洛德那裡聽說了他們的預訂情況。2022 年,集團業務的各個主要領域仍有很大的發展空間。

  • The other thing to point out is that we still are in a position where the room nights are -- that are the current pace for group is still down for '22. It's just down a lot less than it used to be. And that it also -- we're seeing strong rate, where rate is actually up compared to '19. And with each progressing quarter, you see those nights improve as you move farther and farther away from Q3 of 2021, where there's still obviously some concern around these variants.

    另一點需要指出的是,我們目前的狀況是,房間預訂量——也就是 2022 年團體預訂量仍然下降。只是下降幅度比以前小了許多。而且,我們看到利率強勁成長,利率實際上比 2019 年有所上升。隨著每個季度的推進,你會發現這些夜晚的情況有所改善,因為你離 2021 年第三季度越來越遠,而到了第三季度,這些變體顯然仍然存在一些令人擔憂的問題。

  • William Andrew Crow - Analyst

    William Andrew Crow - Analyst

  • If you will, my question that I really wanted to address is housekeeping. And how are the guest requests for nightly housekeeping trending? We had heard from someone else that they had doubled over the last 3 to 6 months, where the guests are proactively asking for that.

    如果可以的話,我真正想討論的問題是家務管理。客人對夜間客房清潔服務的需求趨勢如何?我們從其他人那裡聽說,在過去的 3 到 6 個月裡,他們的業務量翻了一番,而且是客人主動要求的。

  • And then I guess the second part of that is simply, should we expect that the guest-facing experience at luxury and upper upscale hotels will be very similar to where it was eventually in 2019? And therefore, the best opportunity for margin improvement on the housekeeping side might be at select service hotels? Is that a fair way to think about it?

    那麼,我想第二部分就簡單來說就是,我們是否應該預期豪華飯店和高檔飯店的賓客體驗最終會與 2019 年的情況非常相似?因此,客房服務方面利潤率提升的最佳機會可能在於精選服務型飯店?這種思考方式合理嗎?

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Okay. Well, so there's a few questions embedded in there. I think, on your first question, the housekeeping protocols will really continue to be driven by guest preference and will likely vary as you kind of move up and down the quality tiers. On your second point, I think I tend to agree with you that in the luxury and upper upscale tier I think the guest expectations should be much more similar to what they saw in a pre-pandemic environment.

    好的。嗯,這裡麵包含了一些問題。關於你的第一個問題,我認為客房清潔流程將繼續以客人的喜好為導向,並且可能會隨著飯店品質等級的升降而有所不同。關於你的第二點,我比較同意你的觀點,在豪華和高端市場,我認為客人的期望應該與疫情前的環境更相似。

  • And then on your third question, I'm not sure I necessarily agree with that for the simple reason that what's driving margin, certainly, there's the cost side, but there is the top line piece as well. And while it's a single data point, we saw over 4th of July weekend U.S. resort ADR up about 10%. But if you carved out just the luxury tier, Jackie, you'll have to keep me honest here, but I think we were up close to 35% in ADR. And so at that sort of premium in rate, you should expect some meaningful margin improvement even if you're back to pre-pandemic service levels.

    至於你的第三個問題,我不太確定我是否完全同意,原因很簡單,決定利潤率的因素,當然有成本方面,但也有營收方面。雖然這只是一個單一的數據點,但我們看到美國度假村在 7 月 4 日週末的平均房價上漲了約 10%。但是,傑基,如果你只考慮豪華級別的酒店,你得讓我實話實說,但我認為我們的平均房價上漲了近 35%。因此,即使服務水平恢復到疫情前水平,在這種溢價情況下,您也應該期望獲得一些有意義的利潤增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes with Truist.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 Truist 公司的 Patrick Scholes。

  • Charles Patrick Scholes - MD of Lodging, Gaming and Leisure Equity Research & Analyst

    Charles Patrick Scholes - MD of Lodging, Gaming and Leisure Equity Research & Analyst

  • One of the more controversial topics right now are -- is what percentage, if any, of business travel may be permanently lost. And certainly, a New York Times article yesterday throwing more fuel on that fire. I'm wondering what your thoughts are around that question.

    目前最具爭議的話題之一是——商務旅行可能會永久損失多少比例(如果有的話)。當然,昨天《紐約時報》的一篇文章更是火上加油。我想知道你對這個問題有什麼看法。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Well, again, we've shared a bunch of data points with you today that I think underpin our optimism about the return of business transient demand. I do think, going forward, this blending of trip purpose that you've heard me talk about, we continue to think it's great for our business and our industry, and we continue to think it's here to stay for quite a while. We are optimistic about the return of business travel. We talk to about 700 corporate travel managers every month, and we are hearing anecdotally from our customers, particularly those that are in customer service businesses, law firms, accounting firms, consulting firms, that it is critical to their business that they be on the road and in person with their customers.

    嗯,今天我們再次和大家分享了一系列數據點,我認為這些數據點支撐了我們對商務旅行需求回歸的樂觀態度。我認為,展望未來,你們已經聽我談到的這種旅行目的融合,我們仍然認為這對我們的業務和行業來說是件好事,而且我們仍然認為它會持續相當長一段時間。我們對商務旅行的復甦持樂觀態度。我們每個月都會與大約 700 位企業差旅經理交談,我們從客戶那裡聽到一些軼事,特別是那些在客戶服務企業、律師事務所、會計師事務所、諮詢公司工作的客戶,他們認為出差並與客戶面對面交流對他們的業務至關重要。

  • If anything, going forward, I do think it may be a bit more difficult to determine precisely looking at a guest walking through the lobby exactly what their trip purpose is. We're not asking you at the front desk are you here for business, are you here for leisure or both. But I do think you'll see a lengthening of stay as a result of this blending of trip purposes. And in fact, that length of stay is measurable, and we continue to see that through the second quarter of this year.

    如果有什麼變化的話,那就是今後,我認為要透過觀察一位走過大廳的客人來準確判斷他的旅行目的可能會變得更加困難。前台不會問您是來出差的,是來休閒的,還是兩者都有。但我認為,隨著旅行目的的融合,人們的停留時間將會延長。事實上,這種停留時間是可以衡量的,而且我們在今年第二季也繼續看到了這種情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • At this time, there are no further questions. I would like to turn the floor back to management for any additional or closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題了。我想把發言權交還給管理階層,請他們補充或作總結發言。

  • Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

    Anthony G. Capuano - CEO & Director

  • Great. Well, again, thank you all for your participation and interest this morning. I hope you hear our optimism about the pace of recovery we're seeing in many markets around the world. We're excited ourselves to be back on the road. We hope you're getting out there as well, and we look forward to seeing you in our hotels in the weeks and months ahead. Thanks, and have a great day.

    偉大的。再次感謝大家今天早上的參與與關注。我希望你們能感受到我們對世界各地許多市場復甦步伐的樂觀態度。我們自己也對重返旅途感到興奮。我們也希望您能多出去走走,期待在接下來的幾週和幾個月裡在我們的酒店見到您。謝謝,祝您今天過得愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

    感謝您參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路了,祝您有美好的一天。