萬豪國際 (MAR) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Marriott International Q4 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加萬豪國際集團2023年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次電話會議正在錄音。 （操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jackie McConagha.

現在我很高興將今天的節目交給傑基·麥康納哈主持。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. On the call with me today are Tony Capuano, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Development; and Betsy Dahm, our Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝大家。早安，歡迎參加萬豪酒店集團2023年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席會議的有：總裁兼首席執行官托尼·卡普阿諾 (Tony Capuano)；首席財務官兼發展執行副總裁莉妮·奧伯格 (Leeny Oberg)；以及投資者關係副總裁貝齊·達姆 (Betsy Dahm)。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments.

在正式開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天所作的許多陳述並非歷史事實，而是聯邦證券法所界定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到許多風險和不確定因素的影響，具體內容已在提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中闡述，這些風險和不確定因素可能導致未來的實際結果與我們在陳述中明示或暗示的內容有重大差異。

Please note that our discussion of revenues across different customer segments refer to property level revenues. And unless otherwise stated, our RevPAR occupancy, ADR and property level revenue comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels.

請注意，我們對不同客戶群收入的討論均指飯店層面的收入。除非另有說明，我們的每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR)、平均房價 (ADR) 和飯店層級收入分析均反映的是系統內可比較飯店的固定匯率結果。

Statements and our comments in the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our Investor Relations website.

我們今天早些時候發布的新聞稿中的聲明和評論僅在今天有效，不會隨著實際情況的發展而更新。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們的獲利報告以及我們今天發言中提及的所有非GAAP財務指標的調節表。

And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

現在我將把電話交給東尼。

Thank you, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. Our team produced fantastic results in 2023. We continue to experienced strong momentum in our business around the world thanks to solid demand for travel and our diverse portfolio of 30-plus leading brands. Full year global RevPAR was nearly 15% and net rooms grew 4.7%, leading to excellent earnings and cash flow growth.

謝謝Jackie，大家早安。我們的團隊在2023年取得了優異的成績。由於強勁的旅遊需求以及我們旗下30多個領先品牌的多元化組合，我們在全球範圍內的業務持續保持強勁增長勢頭。全年全球每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)成長近15%，淨客房數成長4.7%，從而實現了卓越的盈利和現金流增長。

In the fourth quarter, global RevPAR increased over 7% year-over-year, driven by roughly equal gains in ADR and occupancy. Group, which comprised 23% of room nights, was again the standout customer segment. Compared to the year-ago quarter, Group revenues rose 9% globally and 7% in the U.S. and Can. And Group is shaping up to have another solid year in 2024. At the end of last year, full year 2024 Group revenues were pacing up nearly 13% globally and 11% in the U.S. and Canada on a year-over-year basis, driven by robust increases in both room nights and ADR.

第四季度，全球每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）較去年同期成長超過7%，主要得益於平均房價（ADR）和入住率的均衡成長。團體客戶（佔客房夜數的23%）再次成為表現突出的客戶群。與去年同期相比，團體客戶收入在全球成長9%，在美國和加拿大成長7%。團體客戶在2024年可望持續保持強勁成長動能。截至去年年底，團體客戶2024年全年營收預計年增近13%，在美國和加拿大成長11%，主要得益於客房夜數和平均房價的強勁成長。

Leisure transient accounted for 44% of global room nights in the quarter. This segment has, by far, grown the fastest coming out of COVID, with global leisure transient revenues in the fourth quarter nearly 50% above the same quarter in 2019. Even with this strong growth, demand has remained resilient. Fourth quarter global room nights rose 5% over the year-ago quarter, leading to a 6% leisure transient revenue growth worldwide. In the U.S. and Canada, leisure revenues were up 2%.

本季，休閒散客住宿佔全球客房夜數的44%。迄今為止，該細分市場是新冠疫情後成長最快的領域，第四季全球休閒散客住宿收入較2019年同期成長近50%。即便成長如此強勁，需求依然保持韌性。第四季全球客房夜數年增5%，帶動全球休閒散客住宿收入成長6%。在美國和加拿大，休閒散客住宿收入成長2%。

Business transient contributed 33% of global room nights in the fourth quarter. Demand from small- and medium-sized corporates remain robust. And while large corporates are still lagging, they continued to post volume increases. Solid gains in ADR drove business transient revenues up 7% globally and 3% in the U.S. and Canada.

第四季度，商務散客貢獻了全球客房夜數的33%。中小企業的需求依然強勁。儘管大型企業的需求仍落後，但其入住量也持續成長。平均房價的穩定上漲推動全球商務散客收入成長7%，其中美國和加拿大成長3%。

Our powerful Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program grew to over 196 million members at the end of the year. Member penetration of global room nights reached new highs in the fourth quarter at 69% in the U.S. and Canada and 62% globally. Our digital channels and mobile in particular remain key drivers of growth at a lower cost to our owners. Our Marriott Bonvoy app contributed 22% more room nights in 2023 than in the prior year.

截至年底，我們強大的萬豪旅享家忠誠計畫會員人數已超過1.96億人。第四季度，會員在全球客房夜數佔創下新高，美國和加拿大地區達到69%，全球平均達到62%。我們的數位化管道，尤其是行動端，仍是推動成長的關鍵因素，同時也能降低業主成本。 2023年，萬豪旅享家應用程式貢獻的客房夜數比前一年增加了22%。

We are focused on improving the customer experience across all our digital and other booking channels through the multiyear technology transformation we have underway.

我們致力於透過正在進行的多年技術轉型，改善所有數位和其他預訂管道的客戶體驗。

Enhancing engagement with our members outside of hotel stays through our numerous successful Marriott Bonvoy collaborations, including our co-branded credit cards, also remains a priority. Our growing portfolio of 31 credit cards across 11 countries had record global card member acquisitions last year, and card spend for the year grew 11%.

透過我們眾多成功的萬豪旅享家合作項目，包括聯名信用卡，加強與會員在酒店住宿之外的互動，仍然是我們的工作重點。去年，我們在11個國家推出的31張信用卡組合創下全球持卡會員新增數量新高，全年持卡消費額成長11%。

On the development front, despite a challenging financing environment in the U.S. and Europe, we signed a record 891 organic management, franchise and license agreements in 2023, representing approximately 164,000 rooms. Additionally, we ended the year with a new high of roughly 573,000 rooms in our pipeline. We expect another year of strong global signings in 2024 and are already off to an incredible start.

在開發方面，儘管美國和歐洲的融資環境充滿挑戰，但我們在2023年仍簽署了創紀錄的891份有機管理、特許經營和許可協議，涉及約16.4萬間客房。此外，我們年底的在建工程數量也創下新高，達到約57.3萬間客房。我們預計2024年全球簽約量將持續保持強勁勢頭，目前已取得令人矚目的開局。

We also saw a meaningful acceleration in net rooms growth last year to 4.7%, the highest growth since 2019. Conversions helped again in 2023, accounting for 25% of organic room additions and 40% of organic room signings. For 2024, we anticipate net rooms growth of 5.5% to 6%. This includes around 37,000 rooms from MGM. The first set of these rooms at New York, New York became available on our Marriott channels at the end of January, with the remaining properties expected to be available by the middle of March.

去年，淨客房成長率也顯著加快至4.7%，創下2019年以來的最高成長速度。 2023年，客房轉換再次協助成長，佔新增客房總數的25%及新增簽約客房總數的40%。我們預計2024年淨客房成長率將達到5.5%至6%，其中包括來自美高梅集團的約37,000間客房。位於紐約紐約酒店的首批客房已於1月底在萬豪酒店渠道上線，其餘酒店的客房預計將於3月中旬前陸續開放預訂。

While it is very early days, we are incredibly pleased with the initial booking pace. We're excited about adding these amazing properties to our portfolio and enhancing our distribution in Las Vegas and other cities across the U.S.

雖然現在還處於初期階段，但我們對目前的預訂速度感到非常滿意。我們很高興能將這些優質酒店納入我們的產品組合，並加強我們在拉斯維加斯和美國其他城市的銷售管道。

We remain confident in the 3-year net rooms compound annual growth rate we discussed at our investor meeting in September of 5% to 5.5% from year-end 2022 to year-end 2025. As we focus on expanding our lodging offerings for owners, franchises and guests, we're making significant progress globally in the high-growth mid-scale space. We are in numerous deal discussions for City Express in the Caribbean and Latin America, or CALA region, and for Four Points Express in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

我們仍對9月投資人會議上討論的2022年底至2025年底三年淨客房複合年增長率5%至5.5%的目標充滿信心。我們致力於拓展面向業主、加盟商和賓客的住宿產品，並在全球高成長的中檔飯店領域取得了顯著進展。目前，我們正在就加勒比海和拉丁美洲（CALA地區）的City Express品牌以及歐洲、中東和非洲的Four Points Express品牌進行多項交易洽談。

Here in the U.S., we celebrated the first groundbreaking for StudioRes in Fort Myers, Florida in January, and have over 300 additional potential deals under discussion in around 150 markets. As we strive to offer more options for our stakeholders, we're also working on a new U.S. transient mid-scale brand for both new build and conversions.

今年一月，我們在美國佛羅裡達州邁爾斯堡舉行了StudioRes的首個奠基儀式，目前在約150個市場還有300多個潛在項目正在洽談中。為了提供利害關係人更多選擇，我們也努力打造一個全新的美國中檔短期住宿品牌，涵蓋新建和改建項目。

At the upper end of the chain scale, our luxury distribution is currently over 50% larger than our next closest competitor, and that lead has expanded. In 2023, we had record luxury signings with 58 new deals and we added 29 new luxury hotels to our portfolio.

在高端酒店領域，我們的豪華酒店分銷規模目前比最接近的競爭對手大50%以上，而且這一領先優勢仍在擴大。 2023年，我們創下了豪華飯店簽約量的新紀錄，共簽署了58項新協議，並新增了29家豪華飯店。

In closing, 2023 was a banner year for Marriott, and I am optimistic about what lies ahead. The demand for all types of travel remains strong even as the rebound impact from the pandemic has waned. The fundamentals for our industry are outstanding, and we are determined to grow our industry-leading position. We remain focused on offering the best brands and experiences to the most valuable and engaged guests while expanding the broadest and deepest portfolio of global properties and offerings so we can continue to connect people around the world through the power of travel.

綜上所述，2023年對萬豪來說是輝煌的一年，我對未來充滿信心。即使疫情帶來的復甦影響減弱，各類旅行的需求依然強勁。我們產業的基本面非常出色，我們決心鞏固業界領先地位。我們將繼續專注於為最尊貴、最忠誠的賓客提供最佳品牌和體驗，同時拓展全球酒店及服務組合，從而繼續透過旅行的力量連接世界各地的人們。

I want to thank our Marriott teams around the world for their remarkable dedication and excellent work. And now let me turn the call over to Leeny to discuss our financial results in more detail.

我要感謝萬豪酒店全球團隊的卓越奉獻和出色工作。現在，我將把電話交給利尼，請她更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Tony. I'll walk you through our strong 2023 financial results.

謝謝你，托尼。我將為你詳細介紹我們2023年強勁的財務表現。

In the fourth quarter, U.S. and Canada RevPAR increased over 3% year-over-year, primarily due to higher ADR. International RevPAR rose 17%, driven by an 8 percentage point gain in occupancy and a 4% rise in ADR. Asia Pacific again experienced the largest year-over-year RevPAR increase. RevPAR rose 81% in Greater China, helped by the last quarter of easy comparisons to COVID-look lockdowns in the year-ago quarter, and grew 13% in Asia Pacific excluding China. Fourth quarter total gross fee revenues grew 10% to $1.24 billion, reflecting higher RevPAR, room additions and strong growth in our co-brand credit card fees.

第四季度，美國和加拿大的每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）較去年同期成長超過3%，主要得益於平均房價（ADR）的上漲。國際市場的RevPAR成長17%，主要受入住率提升8個百分點及平均房價上漲4%的推動。亞太地區再次實現了最大的RevPAR年成長。大中華區RevPAR成長81%，這得益於上一季較去年同期因疫情封鎖而導致的基數效應；除中國以外的亞太地區RevPAR成長13%。第四季總費用收入成長10%至12.4億美元，主要得益於RevPAR的成長、客房數量的增加以及聯名信用卡手續費的強勁成長。

Incentive management fees, or IMF, rose 17%, reaching $218 million, driven by another quarter of significant increases in Asia Pacific. For the full year, gross fees rose 18%, with record IMFs that were nearly 20% higher than our prior peak in 2019.

激勵管理費（IMF）成長17%，達到2.18億美元，主要得益於亞太地區連續第二季的顯著成長。全年總費用成長18%，其中IMF創下歷史新高，比2019年的峰值高出近20%。

Owned, leased and other revenue, net of direct expenses, reached $151 million in the quarter and included substantially higher termination fees, primarily due to $63 million associated with the termination of a development project.

本季自有、租賃及其他收入（扣除直接費用後）達到 1.51 億美元，其中包括大幅增加的終止費，主要是由於終止一個開發項目產生的 6,300 萬美元費用。

G&A of $330 million was impacted by a $27 million litigation reserve for an international hotel, as well as timing of performance-related compensation, and increase in bad debt expense, and higher professional fees, which included costs associated with our intellectual property restructuring transactions.

3.3 億美元的一般及行政費用受到以下因素的影響：一家國際酒店的 2700 萬美元訴訟準備金、與業績相關的薪酬的時間安排、壞賬支出的增加以及更高的專業費用（其中包括與我們的知識產權重組交易相關的成本）。

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA grew 10% to nearly $1.2 billion. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was 21% higher than in 2022.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 成長 10%，接近 12 億美元。全年調整後 EBITDA 比 2022 年成長 21%。

Thanks to our team's excellent tax planning efforts that reflect evolving global tax laws, we had a tax benefit of $267 million in the quarter. This was due to over $400 million of favorable discrete items related to international IP restructuring strategies and the release of a tax valuation allowance. The fourth quarter effective tax rate was slightly higher than last year's and above our previous expectations due to jurisdictional mix shift.

由於團隊出色的稅務規劃工作，並能有效應對不斷變化的全球稅法，我們本季獲得了 2.67 億美元的稅收優惠。這主要歸功於與國際智慧財產權重組策略相關的超過 4 億美元的有利單項支出，以及一項稅務估值準備金的釋放。由於稅域組成的變化，第四季的實際稅率略高於去年同期，也高於我們先前的預期。

At the hotel level, despite meaningful wage and benefit inflation, we maintained profit margins in our U.S.-managed hotels in the quarter and for the year compared to both 2022 and 2019, a strong performance.

在飯店層面，儘管薪資和福利大幅上漲，但與 2022 年和 2019 年相比，我們在美國管理的飯店在本季和全年都保持了利潤率，這是一個強勁的業績。

Importantly, our guest surveys indicate that customer satisfaction continues to rise. In December, our intent to recommend score achieved its highest monthly score in over 5 years. Our asset-light business model once again generated significant cash with almost $3.2 billion of cash provided by operating activities in 2023, up 34% year-over-year.

值得注意的是，我們的顧客調查顯示顧客滿意度持續提升。 12月，我們的推薦意願得分達到了五年多來的最高月度得分。我們輕資產的商業模式再次創造了可觀的現金流，2023年經營活動產生的現金流接近32億美元，較去年同期成長34%。

Our loyalty program was a source of cash, even after factoring in the final year of reduced payments from the credit card companies resulting from the amendments we entered into in 2020. In 2024, we expect loyalty cash flow to be roughly neutral.

即使考慮到 2020 年我們與信用卡公司達成的協議修訂導致最後一年付款減少，我們的會員忠誠度計劃仍然是現金來源。我們預計 2024 年會員忠誠度現金流將大致持平。

Now let's talk more about 2024. Our full year outlook assumes a steady, albeit slower growing, global economy. It also reflects normalized lodging demand in most regions around the world with Asia Pacific expected to see higher growth than other regions as it continues to have some benefit from COVID recovery as well as additional international airlift.

現在我們來詳細談談2024年。我們的全年展望假設全球經濟保持穩定，儘管成長放緩。同時，全球大部分地區的住宿需求也已恢復正常，預計亞太地區的成長將高於其他地區，因為該地區將繼續受益於新冠疫情後的復甦以及國際航空運力的增加。

In 2024, RevPAR growth is expected to be driven by another meaningful increase in Group revenue, continued improvement in business transient demand, which will be helped by mid-single-digit special corporate rate increases and slower but still growing leisure revenues. We're off to a strong start with January RevPAR up 7% globally, reflecting continued strong demand around the world, particularly in international markets.

預計2024年RevPAR成長將主要得益於集團收入的另一個顯著增長、商務散客需求的持續改善（這將得益於個位數中段的企業特惠房價上漲）以及休閒旅遊收入增速放緩但仍在增長。 1月RevPAR全球成長7%，開局強勁，反映出全球，尤其是國際市場的持續強勁需求。

International RevPAR rose 14%, and U.S. and Canada RevPAR increased 4% in the month, with year-over-year comparisons easiest in January and Easter shifting from April to March this year, global RevPAR for the first quarter could increase 4% to 5%. For the full year, we anticipate a 3% to 5% rise in global RevPAR. Growth is expected to remain higher in international markets than in the U.S. and Canada, with particular strength in Asia Pacific.

國際市場每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）成長14%，美國及加拿大市場RevPAR成長4%。由於1月年比數據較為容易比較，且今年復活節假期從4月提前至3月，預計第一季全球RevPAR將成長4%至5%。全年來看，我們預期全球RevPAR將成長3%至5%。預計國際市場的成長速度將高於美國和加拿大市場，其中亞太地區的成長尤為強勁。

The sensitivity of a 1% change in full year 2024 RevPAR versus 2023 could be around $50 million to $60 million of RevPAR-related fees. For the full year, gross fees could rise 6% to 8% to $5.1 billion to $5.2 billion, with non-RevPAR-related fees rising 9% to 10%, driven by strong credit card and residential branding fee growth. Owned, leased and other revenues, net of expenses, are expected to total $320 million to $330 million, 17% to 20% lower than 2023 due to meaningfully lower termination fees given the large termination fee in the fourth quarter of '23, a property we sold last summer in CALA, flipping from owned to managed and renovations at several owned hotels. We expect 2024 G&A expense could be flat to up 2% year-over-year.

2024年全年每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）較2023年1%的變動，可能導致與RevPAR相關的費用增加約5000萬至6000萬美元。全年總費用可能成長6%至8%，達到51億至52億美元，其中非RevPAR相關費用可能成長9%至10%，主要受信用卡和住宅品牌推廣費強勁成長的推動。扣除各項支出後，自有、租賃及其他收入預計總計3.2億至3.3億美元，較2023年下降17%至20%，主要原因是終止費大幅降低（考慮到2023年第四季度我們出售的一處位於洛杉磯的物業，該物業由自有轉為管理，且多家自有酒店進行了翻新）。我們預計2024年一般及行政費用可能與上年持平或成長2%。

There are a few discrete onetime items from 2023 that are expected to offset wage and benefit increases. Full year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 5% and 8% to roughly $4.9 billion to $5 billion. Note that our 2024 effective tax rate is expected to be around 25% while we expect our underlying core cash tax rate to remain in the low 20s percent range. Guidance details for the full year and first quarter are in the press release. Please note that first quarter results are expected to be impacted by a few items. First, the timing of residential branding fees is expected to result in these non-RevPAR-related fees being meaningfully lower in the first quarter, but up nicely for the full year. Second, owned, leased and other revenue, net of expenses, will be lower due to the renovations of several owned properties as well as the CALA property that slipped from owned to managed. And finally, G&A in the year ago quarter benefited from several onetime items, while this year's first quarter includes MGM's integration costs.

2023 年有一些一次性項目預計將抵消工資和福利的成長。全年調整後 EBITDA 可能成長 5% 至 8%，達到約 49 億美元至 50 億美元。請注意，我們預計 2024 年的實際稅率約為 25%，而我們預計核心現金稅率將保持在 20% 左右。全年及第一季的業績指引詳情請參閱新聞稿。請注意，第一季業績預計將受到以下幾個因素的影響。首先，由於住宅品牌費的收取時間，預計這些與每間可供出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 無關的費用在第一季將大幅下降，但全年將顯著增長。其次，由於幾處自有物業的翻新以及 CALA 物業從自有轉為管理，扣除費用後的自有、租賃和其他收入將有所下降。最後，去年同期的管理費用受益於幾項一次性項目，而今年第一季則包含了美高梅的整合成本。

Our capital allocation philosophy remains the same. We're committed to our investment-grade rating, investing in growth that is accretive to shareholder value, and then returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend and share repurchases. We're pleased with the significant value we returned to shareholders in 2023 and expect strong capital returns again in 2024.

我們的資本配置理念保持不變。我們致力於維持投資等級信用評級，投資於能夠提升股東價值的成長項目，並透過適度派發現金股息和股票回購的方式將盈餘資本返還給股東。我們對2023年為股東帶來的顯著價值回報感到滿意，並預計2024年將再次獲得強勁的資本回報。

For 2024, factoring in the $500 million of required cash in the fourth quarter for the purchase of the Sheraton Grand in Chicago, capital returns to shareholders could be between $4.1 billion and $4.3 billion. Full year investment spending could total $1 billion to $1.2 billion. This includes another year of higher than historical investment in technology, the vast majority of which is expected to be reimbursed over time. The $500 million for the Sheraton Grand Chicago consists of $200 million of CapEx and $300 million elimination of a previously reported guarantee liability.

2024年，考慮到第四季收購芝加哥喜來登大酒店所需的5億美元現金，股東資本回報可能在41億美元至43億美元之間。全年投資支出總額可能在10億美元至12億美元之間。這其中包括另一年高於歷史水準的技術投資，預計其中絕大部分將在未來償還。收購芝加哥喜來登大酒店的5億美元包括2億美元的資本支出和3億美元的先前披露的擔保負債的消除。

Investment spending is also expected to incorporate roughly $200 million for our owned/leased portfolio, and includes spending for the renovation in the elegant portfolios in Barbados and the completion of the W Union Square renovations. We'll look to recycle these assets and sign long-term management contracts after renovations are complete.

預計投資支出中還將包括約2億美元用於我們自有/租賃的物業組合，其中包括巴貝多高檔物業組合的翻新以及倫敦聯合廣場W酒店的翻新工程竣工。翻新完成後，我們將尋求對這些資產進行再利用，並簽署長期管理合約。

As Tony mentioned, we're also thrilled about our development growth prospects both inside and outside the U.S. We continue to gain market share with 7% of open rooms and 18% of rooms under construction globally at the end of last year.

正如東尼所提到的，我們對美國境內外的發展成長前景也感到非常興奮。截至去年年底，我們在全球已開放客房中佔7%，在建客房中佔18%，市佔率持續成長。

Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

托尼和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。接線生？

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from Joe Greff with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出的問題。

Leeny, I was hoping you can review the MGM transaction and what's included in fee contribution for this year. And then if you could maybe clarify what the integration costs that you referred to in your prepared comments related to the MGM license deal?

Leeny，我希望你能審查米高梅的交易以及今年的費用組成。另外，你能否解釋一下你在之前準備好的關於米高梅牌照交易的評論中提到的整合成本具體指的是什麼？

Yes, sure. So it's really a modest amount of G&A. But it's just worth noting in the year-over-year comparison in Q1 that, that -- as we expect all of those hotels to transition on to Marriott systems, that will all be done in Q1. When we think about the fee contribution, as we've talked about before, Joe, they will be coming on in Q1, and we expect that business to ramp up over the year. There's not a particular number that I would give you now, but just a reflection that it is related to a percentage of the hotel revenues that fits into our franchise fee model as a result of the license agreement over the year.

是的，當然。所以這筆一般及行政費用確實不多。但值得注意的是，在第一季同比數據中，由於我們預計所有酒店都將過渡到萬豪系統，因此過渡工作將在第一季完成。至於費用分攤，正如我們之前討論過的，喬，這些費用將在第一季開始收取，我們預計這項業務將在今年逐步成長。我現在無法給出一個具體的數字，但可以肯定的是，這筆費用與酒店收入中符合我們特許經營費模式的百分比有關，而該百分比是根據許可協議在一年內分攤的。

Great. And then I know you gave us some detail in terms of investment spends this year, and the Sheraton Chicago is a big chunk of that. Is the $500 million all cash out the door? I know there's the $200 million CapEx and $300 million to, I guess, satisfy the getting out of that guarantee. Can you provide a little bit more clarity on that? And then how much of the $1 billion is sort of aspirational and not spoken for at this point?

好的。我知道您之前詳細介紹了今年的投資支出，其中芝加哥喜來登酒店佔了很大一部分。這5億美元是全部現金支付嗎？我知道其中有2億美元的資本支出，還有3億美元，我猜是為了解除擔保。能再詳細解釋一下嗎？另外，這10億美元中有多少是目前尚未落實的預期投資？

Yes. No, no. It's a good clarification question, Joe. That $500 million is cash out the door, and we would expect that to occur in Q4 2024. But to help you understand what we're really considering capital investment, we wanted to clarify, to save a $200 million of the $500 million, relates to the purchase of the underlying land on the Sheraton Grand Chicago. And so that is in CapEx, while the rest reflects a liability that we established on the balance sheet, frankly, years ago, as part of the overall transaction. So it does obviously impact our available cash for the year, but is in there.

是的。不，不。喬，你問得好，這個問題需要澄清。這5億美元是現金支出，我們預計2024年第四季到帳。但為了幫助你理解我們真正意義上的資本投資，我們想澄清一下，為了節省你的開支，這5億美元中的2億美元與購買芝加哥喜來登大酒店的地塊有關。這部分屬於資本支出，而剩餘部分則反映了我們幾年前作為整體交易的一部分在資產負債表上確認的負債。因此，這顯然會影響我們當年的可用現金，但它確實包含在內。

And when you think about unidentified capital expenditures in that number of the $1 billion to $1.2 billion, it's really quite modest.

當你考慮到這 10 億至 12 億美元中未確定的資本支出時，你會發現這筆錢其實相當少。

We'll take a question from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

我們將回答來自美國銀行的肖恩凱利提出的問題。

Tony, Leeny, just wondering if you could just start with maybe kind of current state of the development environment. Tony, obviously, global interest rates have cooperated a little bit for the hope of developers, and just sort of what your -- probably the same thing on the construction cost landscape. So as we sit here today, I know it's only 4 months or so from your big update at the Analyst Day, but could you just give us latest sense of the land, how some of those conversations went at ALIS and what people should expect on the organic side for signings and, more importantly, probably starting to move into construction?

Tony，Leeny，我想先問問你們能否談談目前的開發環境狀況。 Tony，顯然，全球利率的改善對開發商來說是個好消息，建築成本的情況可能也類似。我知道距離你們在分析師日發布重要更新報告只有大約四個月的時間，但你們能否簡單介紹一下最新的市場情況，比如在ALIS會議上你們的討論進展如何，以及在簽約方面，尤其是開工建設方面，大家應該抱有怎樣的預期？

Of course. So as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, on the heels of a record signings year, it's more anecdotal than anything else. But in terms of deal volume through the first month of the year, it's really encouraging. And we're seeing strong momentum both on submissions for new build projects around the world as well as continued really encouraging momentum on the conversion side.

當然。正如我們在事先準備好的發言稿中提到的，在創紀錄的簽約量之後，目前的情況更多的是一些零星的跡象，而非確鑿的證據。但就今年第一個月的交易量而言，確實令人鼓舞。我們看到，無論是全球新建項目的申請，或是改建項目，都呈現出強勁的成長動能。

In terms of the environment coming out of the ALIS, I'm going to ramble here a little bit, because I think there are both some positives and negatives that we heard from the owner and franchise community about their expectations for 2024. On the positive side of the ledger as you point out, there is a sense that there will be continued relief on the interest rate side as we get in particularly the back half of 2024.

關於ALIS政策出台後的環境，我想在這裡稍微跑題一下，因為我們從業主和加盟商群體那裡聽到了一些關於他們對2024年預期的積極和消極看法。正如你所指出的，積極的一面是，人們普遍認為，尤其是在2024年下半年，利率方面將繼續保持寬鬆。

There is an expectation maybe in parallel that the hotel transaction market will start to be a bit more active in the back half of the year as well. And while there is still, admittedly, some gap in the bid and the ask between sellers and buyers, it feels like that gap is continuing to narrow, which will likely lead, we expect, to a little more active transaction environment, which has always historically been good news for us on the conversion front.

同時，人們也預期酒店交易市場將在下半年變得更加活躍。誠然，目前買賣雙方的報價和要價之間仍存在一些差距，但這種差距似乎正在持續縮小，我們預計這將促成更加活躍的交易環境，而這歷來對我們而言都是利好消息。

When you pivot to the more challenging side of the ledger, you do still have lenders thinking about compliance with proposed regulatory environment, that will perhaps impact their ability to really open the faucet in terms of the amount of debt that they -- debt financing that they make available for new construction. But there again, it's one of the reasons we're so enthusiastic about our entry into mid-scale, when we talk to our franchise partners on the mid-scale front. They feel like the size of those commitments is something that they're going to have a decent measure of success in procuring debt.

當我們轉向更具挑戰性的方面時，貸款機構仍然需要考慮遵守擬議的監管環境，這可能會影響他們真正開放貸款的能力——也就是他們為新建項目提供的債務融資規模。但也因為如此，當我們與中型專案的加盟合作夥伴交流時，我們才對進軍中型市場充滿熱情。他們認為，這些項目的規模足以讓他們在獲得貸款方面取得相當大的成功。

And then the last thing I would remind you is the obvious, that while we stay very focused on the availability of debt and its impact on our growth trajectory, that is largely a U.S., Canada and Western Europe attribute. When you look at the pace of growth we're seeing across Asia Pacific, across the Middle East, that growth does not seem to be particularly impacted by the ups and downs of the availability of debt.

最後我想提醒大家一點，雖然我們一直非常關注債務的可近性及其對成長軌蹟的影響，但這主要體現在美國、加拿大和西歐。縱觀亞太地區和中東地區的成長速度，債務可獲得性的波動似乎並未對成長產生顯著影響。

I think you also had a question about construction costs. And so maybe I'll expand my answer a little bit. When we think about potential impediments to growth, the availability of debt is the one that I think we're most focused on. Supply chain issues, which we were talking with you about a year ago, are not nearly as severe as we saw several quarters ago. Construction costs have come down a little bit and they're rising year-over-year at lower rates than we saw a year or 2 ago.

我想您之前也問過關於建築成本的問題。所以，我或許可以稍微詳細地回答一下。當我們考慮可能阻礙成長的因素時，我認為我們最關注的是債務的可獲得性。我們一年前和您討論過的供應鏈問題，現在遠沒有幾個季度前那麼嚴重了。建築成本已經略有下降，而且同比增速也低於一兩年前的水平。

So on that front, I think we're pretty encouraged. But it's really the ability to source debt for new construction is the area that Leeny and the team are most focused on.

所以在這方面，我們感到相當鼓舞。但Leeny和他的團隊目前最關注的還是如何為新項目籌集債務資金。

We will take our next question from Smedes Rose with Citi.

接下來，我們將回答花旗銀行的斯梅德斯·羅斯提出的問題。

I was just wondering, when we look at the sort of core metrics that you guys provide in terms of EBITDA for the year, unit growth and capital return, all of those, at least relative to our forecast, are in line or better and look similar for consensus forecast. But your operating EPS outlook is quite a bit lower than consensus. And I was just wondering if there's any 1 or 2 things that you might point to would you think maybe there was a difference in sort of expectation versus what you expect to put up? Because it doesn't sound like it's -- like a tax rate issue, maybe there's something else there?

我只是想問一下，當我們查看你們提供的核心指標，例如年度EBITDA、單位成長和資本回報率時，所有這些指標，至少相對於我們的預測而言，都符合甚至優於市場普遍預期。但是你們的營運每股盈餘預期卻遠低於市場普遍預期。我想請教一下，你們能否指出一兩個原因，你們的預期和實際預期之間是否有差異？因為這聽起來不像稅率問題，或許還有其他因素？

Yes. No, thanks, Smedes, very much. No, I appreciate that. Yes, tax rate is probably the biggest item when you think about it. First of all, just remember that in '23 there is the reality of this extra termination fee. So when you look at year-over-year growth, that then impacts how you look at '24 over '23.

是的。不，謝謝你，斯梅德斯，非常感謝。不，我很感激。是的，仔細想想，稅率可能是最大的影響因素。首先，請記住，2023年確實存在這筆額外的終止費用。因此，在比較年度成長時，這會影響你對2024年相對於2023年數據的評估。

And so if you adjust out for the odd balls of both the litigation reserve and the performance, the termination fee, and you take into consideration that we've got probably about a 1 point higher book tax rate, and I do emphasize it's a book tax rate rather than cash. Our cash tax rate is essentially staying the same, thanks to the great work that the team has done in working through our global tax planning. But when you look at it from a book perspective, it's about 1 point higher overall.

因此，如果剔除訴訟準備金、業績提成和終止費等特殊項目，並考慮到賬面稅率可能高出約1個百分點（我強調這是賬面稅率，而非現金稅率），那麼我們的現金稅率基本保持不變，這要歸功於團隊在全球稅務籌劃方面所做的出色工作。但從帳面角度來看，整體稅率確實高出約1個百分點。

And you put those together and you can do your math there, and that is where you then get to something that looks from an adjusted EPS that looks -- on '24 that looks close to double digits.

你把這些加在一起，就可以進行計算，然後你就會得到一個調整後的每股收益，看起來——在 2024 年，看起來接近兩位數。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I was just wondering, Tony, you just mentioned in your opening remarks that some of the large corporate group bookings continued to lag, which is something we've kind of heard for a while relative to smaller groups. So I was just wondering, could you maybe just talk a little bit more about what you're hearing and maybe expecting as we go forward? Do you think that's just kind of impaired for the foreseeable future? Or is it something that you think could improve over time? Just maybe some more color there.

好的，這很有幫助。東尼，我剛才在開場白中提到，一些大型企業團體的預訂量仍然偏低，我們之前也聽說過這種情況，與小型團體相比，預訂量似乎有所下降。所以我想請您再詳細說說您所了解的情況以及未來的預期。您認為這種情況在可預見的未來會持續嗎？還是說隨著時間的推移情況會有所改善？希望能多提供一些細節資訊。

Yes, of course. So really, my comment was that -- let me break it down into 2 buckets. When I talked about business transient, the small- and medium-sized corporates, the demand coming out of those groups continues to be quite robust. And my comment about large corporates lagging is really sort of in reference to a pre-pandemic environment. But with that said, we continue to see incremental growth even coming out of the large corporates quarter-over-quarter.

當然。所以，我的觀點是──讓我把它分成兩類來分析。當我談到商務旅行，也就是中小企業時，這些族群的需求依然非常強勁。而我之前提到的大型企業需求落後，其實是指疫情前的情況。但即便如此，我們仍看到大型企業的需求在季度環比中持續成長。

Just to be clear, that was on the transient side. On the group side, we're actually, as we talked about on the group pace, it's really still a very strong number. And I think to me, one of the interesting things is we're now getting back to some of the way it looked before where 75% of the group that is on -- that is -- that we're expecting in '24, is already on the books, which if you look at that a year ago, that was only 65%. So it still really points out that, with this 11% pace that we're looking at for '24 and 12% for '25 in the U.S., that actually the corporate group as well as the other types of group is still quite strong.

需要澄清的是，以上指的是臨時工方面的情況。就集團工而言，正如我們之前討論的，集團工的進度仍然非常強勁。我認為有趣的一點是，我們現在正逐漸恢復到之前的狀態，也就是我們預期在2024年完成的集團工的75%已經落實，而一年前這個比例只有65%。因此，這仍然表明，即使我們預計2024年美國地區的工時為11%，2025年為12%，企業集團工以及其他類型的集團工仍然相當強勁。

We'll take our next question from Richard Clarke with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將聽取理查德·克拉克和伯恩斯坦提出的問題。

Maybe just one on the SG&A cost. You gave some color on why it was a little bit higher. But just wondering whether you can just do the bridge from the 255 guidance you gave at Q3. What wasn't anticipated there? Was it this IP restructuring? And why did that suddenly happen in Q4? And maybe some color on the bad debt. Is there anything to read across from that as well?

或許可以就銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）談一點。您已經解釋了為什麼這項費用略高。但我想請您根據第三季給予的255美元業績指引進行一些分析。當時有哪些未預料到的情況？是智慧財產權重組嗎？為什麼這件事突然發生在第四季？另外，關於壞賬，您能否也解釋一下？壞帳方面有什麼值得注意的地方嗎？

Right. So this is really largely about timing. We've taken you through the litigation reserve. And then there's obviously the usual quarter-to-quarter fluctuations that reflect everything from closing deals and travel expense to, as you probably remember, when we go back to Q1 of 2023, we were still in the process of getting back to being fully staffed, which then ramps up during the year.

沒錯。所以這主要還是時間安排的問題。我們已經向您介紹了訴訟準備金。當然，還有通常的季度波動，這反映了從完成交易、差旅費用到各種因素，您可能還記得，當我們回顧2023年第一季時，我們仍在恢復滿員狀態，而人員配備會在年內逐步增加。

And then as you know, the performance compensation -- performance-related compensation then takes into consideration how the company is doing against its targets. And you put all those together and the constant analysis of your positions of receivables from all of your hotels around the world and just really reflects some timing of when they fell in Q3 versus Q4. And there, again, when you think about looking at next year, you do see that we're talking about flat to up 2%, which really reflects that there were a number of items this year.

如您所知，績效薪酬－也就是與績效相關的薪酬－會考慮公司完成目標的程度。我們會將所有這些因素綜合起來，並持續分析您在全球所有飯店的應收帳款狀況，從而反映出第三季和第四季應收帳款的變動情況。因此，展望明年，我們預期營收將持平或成長2%，這確實反映了今年許多因素的影響。

Okay. That makes sense. Maybe if I can just ask a follow-up. Just at the CMD, you gave a RevPAR guidance for the 2-year stack of 3 to 6, net unit growth guidance of 4 to 5. Obviously, both of those are going to have to accelerate into 2025 to kind of get to the midpoint. Is that what you're anticipating, that they're drivers to get RevPAR and acceleration in 2025?

好的，明白了。我可以再問一個後續問題嗎？在CMD會議上，您給出了未來兩年每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）增長3到6%的預期，淨單元增長4到5%。顯然，這兩個指標都需要在2025年加速成長才能達到預期的中點。您預期這些因素會是2025年RevPAR成長和加速成長的驅動力嗎？

Yes. So Richard, maybe I'll take the (inaudible) question first. As we talked a little bit when we were together in Miami, we continue to think that, as you consider (inaudible) it is less constructive to look at a single year and much more instructive to look at rooms' growth over a multiyear period. In some ways, the MGM rooms coming into the system slipping from the back of '23 into early '24 is the best illustration of that, notwithstanding MGM sliding into '24.

是的。那麼理查德，或許我先回答（聽不清楚）這個問題。正如我們在邁阿密時討論過的，我們仍然認為，正如您所考慮的（聽不清），只關注某一年的數據意義不大，而觀察多年期間客房的增長情況則更有意義。在某種程度上，米高梅酒店在2023年底到2024年初加入該系統的客房數量，正好說明了這一點，儘管米高梅酒店本身也推遲到了2024年。

As you know, we ended up a little higher than anticipated in '23 at 4.7% net unit growth. We expect to be at a meaningfully higher number this year because of the impact of the MGM openings. And when we look at the 3-year CAGR that we discussed at the security analyst conference, we continue to be very confident in our ability to deliver that mid-single-digit range of about 5% to 5.5%.

如您所知，2023年我們的淨單位成長率略高於預期，達到4.7%。由於米高梅新店開幕的影響，我們預計今年的成長率將顯著提高。此外，正如我們在證券分析師會議上討論的那樣，我們仍然非常有信心實現5%至5.5%左右的中等個位數成長率。

Then I think just on a more macro basis, we've not made any major changes in terms of our longer-term outlook. We obviously have a little more visibility and clarity into this year. Now that the teams around the world have gone through all their numbers, but we've really not revisited anything beyond '24 and continue to be quite confident in what we talked about from a RevPAR perspective.

從更宏觀的角度來看，我們在長期展望方面並沒有做出任何重大調整。當然，我們對今年的情況有了更清晰的了解。現在世界各地的團隊都已經完成了各自的數據分析，但我們並沒有重新審視2024年之後的事情，並且仍然對我們之前從每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）角度所討論的內容充滿信心。

And just a reminder that when we go through the process, a lot of what we're trying to do at the security analyst meeting is to help you understand a range from a modeling perspective, and it's done before we go through the budgeting process. So actually, as you know, we ended up with a really strong year in 2023. And when we look at it overall from a growth in our hotel revenue system, we're right where we would have expected to be and very pleased about the demand that we're seeing both on the OCC and rate side as we look into '24.

再次提醒大家，在整個流程中，我們在安全分析師會議上所做的許多工作都是為了幫助大家從建模的角度理解各種可能性，這項工作是在預算編制之前完成的。如您所知，我們在2023年取得了非常強勁的業績。從飯店收入系統的整體成長來看，我們目前的情況與預期相符，並且對2024年OCC和房價方面的需求都非常滿意。

We'll take our next question from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將回答摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格林布林提出的問題。

I know you touched on it in the introductory remarks, but could you help us bridge the gap from thinking about room growth and RevPAR growth versus the gross management franchise fee growth? I mean, essentially, is this a mismatch that should continue beyond 2025 due to what you see in the pipeline? Or is it more to do with the MGM contribution and how that may ramp?

我知道您在開場白中已經提到過這一點，但您能否幫我們理清一下客房增長和每間可供出租客房收入（RevPAR）增長與總管理特許經營費增長之間的差距？我的意思是，從本質上講，鑑於您看到的在建項目，這種不匹配是否會持續到2025年後？或者這與美高梅集團的貢獻及其成長速度有關？

Yes, it's definitely not from an MGM perspective. I think as we talked about, the fundamental model still actually works very well. We had a couple of anomalies going on in 2023. But when you think about it broadly, the fundamental model of RevPAR plus fees continues to work fine. We've got the reality that, when you think about putting together the RevPAR scenario, you're getting benefit across the board from the growth in the rooms as well as from IMF. And as you saw, we're talking about really strong continued IMF growth.

是的，這絕對不是從米高梅的角度來看的。正如我們之前討論的，基本模式仍然非常有效。 2023年確實出現了一些異常狀況。但從整體來看，RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）加上各種費用的基本模式仍然運作良好。事實上，在綜合考慮RevPAR時，客房數量的增長以及IMF（國際貨幣基金組織）的收益都將帶來全面的好處。正如您所看到的，我們所說的是IMF的持續強勁成長。

And then, of course, the reflection that our non-RevPAR fees are expected to grow 9% to 10% in 2024. So I don't expect the fundamental kind of growth and fee algorithm to be different than we've talked about before.

當然，我們也應該考慮到，預計到 2024 年，我們的非 RevPAR 費用將增加 9% 至 10%。因此，我預期基本的成長模式和費用計算方式不會與我們之前討論過的有所不同。

Great. And maybe one other quick follow-up to the last question, which was around the Investor Day in September. I guess just very, very big picture, what's changed from then to now as we think about that multiyear algorithm?

好的。或許我還有一個關於上一個問題的後續問題，上一個問題是關於九月的投資人日。我想從非常宏觀的角度來看，從那時到現在，當我們思考那個多年演算法時，發生了哪些變化？

I would say very little, in terms of the basic equation. I mean, frankly, '23 ended up being very strong. And if you think about the guidance that we gave, we ended up higher than the high end of what we gave at the Security Analyst Meeting by $6 million. So you are starting off with a higher base. And then again, we're looking, a lot of the numbers that we talked about at the Security Analyst Meeting were over a 3-year time frame, and now we're being able to give you more specificity about 2024. But the fundamental about RevPAR growth plus net rooms growth, some operating leverage, continues to work.

就基本公式而言，我認為影響很小。坦白說，2023年的業績非常強勁。回顧我們先前的績效指引，最終的實際績效比我們在安全分析師會議上給出的預期上限高出600萬美元。所以，我們目前的基數更高。此外，我們在安全分析師會議上討論的許多數據都是基於三年時間跨度的，而現在我們可以更具體地預測2024年的情況。但RevPAR成長加上淨客房成長以及一定的營運槓桿作用，這些基本要素仍然有效。

One thing I do think is interesting, when you look back at G&A as a percentage of fees, which, being a fee-driven business, that is, I think, the best relationship given the fluctuations in owned/leased as we sell hotels, and that is, you look at 2019, we are in G&A as a percentage of gross fees around close to 25%. And the numbers that we've given you today show that number having dropped down to under 20%, which I think does show you the continued operating leverage that we're getting out of the model.

有一點我覺得很有意思，那就是當我們回顧管理費用佔總費用的百分比時——考慮到我們酒店自有/租賃比例的波動，而我們又是收費型企業，我認為這種比例關係最為恰當。 2019年，管理費用佔總費用的比例接近25%。而我們今天公佈的數據顯示，這個數字已經降至20%以下，我認為這確實反映了我們這種模式持續帶來的營運槓桿效應。

And I might just build on that a little bit. And as for those of you that have been covering us for a long time, you know there's a phrase that guides almost everything we do. That phrase being success is never final. And while we are very encouraged by the continued improvement in the G&A ratio, you can be rest assured that is a principal focus area for the senior leadership team, with an eye towards continuing to improve that efficiency.

我或許可以就此稍作補充。長期關注我們的各位都知道，有一句話幾乎貫穿我們所做的一切，那就是：成功永無止境。雖然我們對管理費用率的持續改善感到非常鼓舞，但請放心，這仍然是高階領導團隊的重點領域，我們將致力於進一步提高效率。

We'll take our next question from Chad Beynon with Macquarie.

接下來，我們將回答麥格理銀行的查德貝農提出的問題。

I wanted to ask a question related to the RevPAR guidance, I guess, kind of looking at the chain scales. So based on how you report, I guess, premium, which some of us would consider upper upscale, continues to be the strongest in the third quarter and the fourth quarter, and that's kind of what we're seeing year-to-date. As you think about, I guess, luxury and upper upscale versus some of the other segments, do you have a view in terms of what will kind of lead 2024? And is there still a lot of room for ADR increases in upper upscale given what you're seeing with group pacing?

我想問一個與RevPAR（每間可供出租客房收入）預期相關的問題，主要是想了解一下連鎖飯店的業績。根據你們的報告方式，高端飯店（我們有些人會將其視為中高端飯店）在第三季和第四季依然表現強勁，今年迄今的情況也大致如此。考慮到豪華酒店和中高端酒店與其他細分市場相比，你們認為哪些細分市場會在2024年引領市場？鑑於你們觀察到的集團化趨勢，中高端飯店的平均房價（ADR）是否還有很大的提升空間？

Sure. So let me comment on a couple of things. First of all, when we think about special corporate rates, you've heard us talk about kind of continued building of that demand. And while it's not back to 2019 levels, it is continuing to, at the margin, grow a little bit faster. And we had high single-digit growth rate in that segment in '23, and we're looking at strong mid-single-digit rate growth in that segment in '24.

當然。那我再補充幾點。首先，說到企業特惠價格，您可能已經聽我們說過，這方面的需求一直持續成長。雖然目前還沒有恢復到2019年的水平，但增速確實略有加快。 2023年，我們在這個領域的成長率達到了接近兩位數，預計2024年也將維持強勁的中位數成長。

So that is absolutely -- as you look at that, plus the group strength, which when I think about the group pace of that 11%, I would say, between rooms and ADR, that is probably 2/3, 1/3 rooms and ADR. So you're still seeing some very nice growth there. So clearly, the premium segment is, I think, going to be the biggest beneficiary of that increase in demand.

所以，這一點毋庸置疑——正如你所看到的，再加上團體預訂的強勁勢頭，考慮到11%的團體預訂增長率，我認為，客房數量和平均房價（ADR）的比例大概是2/3到1/3。因此，你仍然可以看到非常可觀的成長。顯然，我認為高端市場將成為需求成長的最大受益者。

On the select service side, you saw that segment really come out of COVID the fastest and one that has moderated, as you've seen towards the end of this year. We would expect that to be Steady Eddy, but not really get the benefit of some of the things that I just mentioned.

在精選服務方面，您可以看到該細分市場從新冠疫情中恢復得最快，但正如您在今年年底所看到的，其增長速度已經趨於平穩。我們預計該細分市場將保持穩定，但可能無法真正受益於我剛才提到的一些因素。

And then we continue to expect to see luxury continue to do really well. And so there is opportunity there, both on the rate and OCC side. But I think the 2 areas I mentioned before are probably the ones to highlight as you think about the tiers.

我們預計奢侈品市場將持續保持強勁勢頭。因此，無論是在利率方面還是在營運成本方面，都存在著機會。但我認為，在考慮分級制度時，我之前提到的兩個領域可能才是需要重點關注的。

And I might build on that last luxury comment from Leeny. You heard in my opening remarks about the momentum we have in extending our lead and luxury from a footprint perspective. And fourth quarter '23 versus fourth quarter '22 on a global basis, we saw luxury RevPAR up 10%. And so we continue to see pretty compelling economics in the luxury segment and are excited about the growth we're seeing in terms of our industry-leading footprint.

我或許可以就Leeny剛才提到的奢侈品話題再補充一點。正如我在開場白中提到的，我們在擴大市場份額和拓展奢侈品業務方面勢頭強勁。 2023年第四季與2022年第四季相比，全球奢侈品RevPAR成長了10%。因此，我們持續看到奢侈品市場極具吸引力的經濟效益，並對我們行業領先的市場份額所取得的成長感到振奮。

Appreciate it. And then just a housekeeping. IMF at the end of the year, North American properties, what percentage were payers during the year maybe versus peak?

謝謝。另外，還有一些其他事項。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）年底的數據顯示，北美地區的房產，全年的還款比例與高峰相比如何？

Yes, sure. This is where it gets a little complicated, but let's do it. And that is in '23, for the full year -- would you like quarter or year? Which do you prefer?

好的，沒問題。這裡稍微有點複雜，不過我們來處理一下。這是2023年全年的—您想要按季度還是按年計算？您比較喜歡哪一種？

Yes, year, unless the OCC rate is massively different.

是的，除非OCC利率出現巨大差異，否則是每年。

Yes. So 31% for the full year in U.S. and Canada versus 56%. However, there's really, as you remember, there was a big change in our limited service portfolio as a result of the HPT hotels leaving the system. So full-service hotels in '23, 40% of our managed full service hotels were earning IMFs in the U.S., 45% at peak, really limited services, but big change of 19% in '23 versus 66% in '19. But many of those hotels are no longer in our system.

是的。所以，美國和加拿大全年佔比為31%，去年同期為56%。不過，如您所知，由於HPT飯店退出系統，我們的有限服務飯店組合發生了巨大變化。 2023年，我們管理的全服務酒店中，40%在美國賺取了IMF（國際貨幣基金組織收入），高峰時期曾達到45%，這些酒店服務有限，但與2019年的66%相比，2023年下降了19%，變化很大。但其中許多酒店已不在我們的系統中。

Then when you look at international, it's really overwhelmingly quite similar as to when it was in 2019. So for the entire company, at '23, 68% are earning IMFs, versus 72%. And if you adjust for that limited service portfolio that I discussed, it was 70% in 2019. So we're really getting to quite similar levels. And as I said, international is really overwhelmingly the same as it was in '19.

然後，當我們觀察國際業務時，會發現它與2019年的情況非常相似。就整個公司而言，2023年，68%的員工正在賺取國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）收益，而2019年為72%。如果將我之前提到的有限服務組合進行調整，2019年這一比例為70%。因此，我們實際上已經達到了非常接近的水平。正如我所說，國際業務與2019年的情況基本上相同。

We'll take our next question from Brandt Montour with Barclays.

接下來，我們將回答來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭特·蒙圖爾提出的問題。

Maybe for Tony. Just curious in terms of the development momentum going on in the ground in China today, what's sort of baked into the guidance in terms of China openings or maybe you could answer it qualitatively? Has that market's opening momentum changed now versus 3 or 6 months ago?

或許對托尼來說是這樣。我只是好奇目前中國市場的開發動能如何，關於中國市場的開放，能否從定性角度回答？與3個月或6個月前相比，目前的市場開放動能是否有所改變？

Yes. So we continue to see the momentum on the development side in China that we talked about a quarter or 2 ago, both in terms of what I would call intake, meaning the volume of MOUs that we're signing, the volume of new deals that we're improving. But just as compelling in terms of driving opening volume, during the pandemic, we saw a variety of projects across the pipeline pause construction. And we're seeing the vast majority of those paused projects back under construction moving towards opening.

是的。正如我們一兩個季度前提到的，我們在中國的發展勢頭依然強勁，這體現在兩個方面：一是「新增項目」——也就是我們簽署的諒解備忘錄數量，二是我們正在推進的新交易數量。但同樣重要的是，在推動工程開工方面，疫情期間，我們看到許多在建工程暫停施工。而現在，我們看到絕大多數暫停的工程已經復工，並正朝著開工的目標邁進。

So I think on early pipeline, if you will, approved and signed deals and under construction deals, we see encouraging trends in all 3 of those categories.

所以我認為，就早期專案儲備而言，無論是已批准和簽署的交易，還是正在建設中的交易，我們都看到了這三個類別中令人鼓舞的趨勢。

Okay. That's encouraging. Go ahead.

好的，這令人鼓舞。繼續吧。

I'd just add one thing that I think kind of helps frame your question, and that is when we look at our overall growth in rooms in Asia Pacific, we're in the high-single digits, that we're looking at, both in '23 and '24, including China and Asia Pacific outside of China. Just really strong demand for our brands across the various scales.

我只想補充一點，我認為這有助於更好地回答您的問題。那就是，當我們審視亞太地區整體客房成長時，我們預計2023年和2024年（包括中國和中國以外的亞太地區）都將保持接近兩位數的成長率。這充分體現了市場對我們各個規模品牌的強勁需求。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up also on development, just a longer-term question, sort of thinking about reflecting back on '23 as a year where capital formation and debt financing was harder to come by and that sort of weighed on U.S. new hotel starts. Is this -- do you think we'll be looking back on '23 when we get to sort of '25 or '26 and be talking about something of an air pocket in terms of new hotel openings because of '23? Or do you think it's not as meaningful and there's other things that will offset? How do you think about that when you do your longer-term planning?

好的。接下來，關於發展方面，還有一個更長遠的問題，我們回顧一下2023年，那一年資本形成和債務融資都比較困難，這在一定程度上抑制了美國新酒店的開工量。您認為到了2025年或2026年，我們會不會因為2023年的新飯店開幕數而感到空檔期？或者您認為2023年的影響力不那麼顯著，會有其他因素可以抵銷這種影響？您在進行長期規劃時是如何考慮這個問題的？

Yes. No, I think you make a good point. As Tony talked about in his response to the question about the financing environment, there's no doubt that financing availability for new build construction of hotels is limited. And the strong brands get the most of it, but you've got some uncertainty around bank capital regulations, et cetera. So it is clearly down meaningfully from the kind of pace of new build that was in 2019.

是的。不，我認為你說的很有道理。正如托尼在回答有關融資環境的問題時所提到的，毫無疑問，新建酒店的融資管道有限。強勢品牌往往能獲得最多的融資，但銀行資本監理等方面卻有些不確定性。因此，新建飯店的成長率顯然比2019年的水準大幅下降。

I think what you have seen on the good side is that our conversions as a percentage of room signings has gone up meaningfully, and we look forward to that continuing. But yes, I hope that, that is the case and that we're kind of seeing a bit of an air pocket in the U.S. As we talked about, outside the U.S., we're not as dependent. I will call out Europe, which also has a lot of the same characteristics as the U.S. on the new build construction side.

我認為好消息是，我們的客房預訂轉換率顯著提升，我們期待這一趨勢能夠持續下去。但確實，我希望情況確實如此，我們目前在美國市場看到的是某種程度的「空檔期」。正如我們之前討論的，在美國以外，我們對美國的依賴程度並不高。我特別想提一下歐洲，它在新建飯店方面與美國有許多相似之處。

But we are really pleased with what we're seeing on the StudioRes demand side and ability to start getting those shovels in the ground. And so there, we are hopeful that you'll start to see that pace pick up as the construction costs, the demand side continues to be very strong, as well as financing ability improves.

但我們對目前StudioRes的需求狀況以及專案開工的能力感到非常滿意。因此，我們希望隨著建築成本的下降、需求的持續強勁以及融資能力的改善，專案進度能夠加快。

And I might just build on that comment about mid-scale. It's -- Leeny and I tend to climb over each other with enthusiasm to talk about mid-scale. We think there's a tremendous market opportunity from a demand perspective. There is a deep appetite from our franchise community. We think the cost of developing mid-scale will help our partners navigate what is still a challenging financing environment.

我或許可以就中檔餐廳這個話題再補充一些。我和Leeny總是興致勃勃地談論中檔餐廳。我們認為從需求角度來看，中階餐廳蘊藏著巨大的市場機會。我們的加盟商群對中階餐廳的需求非常旺盛。我們相信，開發中檔餐廳的成本將有助於我們的合作夥伴應對目前依然充滿挑戰的融資環境。

And the other thing that is exciting to us, you'll recall the last number of quarters, in select service broadly, we talked about a lengthening of the construction cycle, Leeny and I were both down in Fort Myers putting a shovel in the ground for the first StudioRes. And our partners there talked about an expectation of opening that hotel in at most 13 months with an eye trying -- towards trying to get it open in 12 months.

還有一件讓我們興奮的事情，您可能還記得，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們討論過精選服務酒店的建設週期可能會延長。我和Leeny當時都在邁爾斯堡，為第一家StudioRes酒店破土動工。我們在那裡的合作夥伴預計，這家酒店最多可以在13個月內開業，並爭取在12個月內開業。

And so the ability to get mid-scale deals signed, shovels -- financed, shovels in the ground and open more quickly than what we've seen with a lot of other tiers in our portfolio, is another factor in our enthusiasm for our entry into midscale.

因此，能夠比我們投資組合中的許多其他層級更快地簽署中型交易、獲得融資、破土動工並開業，是我們對進入中型市場充滿熱情的另一個因素。

We'll take our next question from Kevin Kopelman with TD Cowen.

接下來，我們將回答 TD Cowen 的 Kevin Kopelman 提出的問題。

Given how well the MGM deal is starting off, as you think about your pipeline talks, what's the outlook for other large partnerships akin to the MGM deal going forward?

鑑於與米高梅的交易開局良好，在您考慮後續談判時，您認為未來其他類似米高梅交易的大型合作前景如何？

Yes. So Leeny and I were both in Las Vegas this past weekend for Super Bowl, and so I'll make a couple of comments. Number one, when you look at the vibrancy of that market, you look at how effectively the city was able to accommodate an event like that, you likely heard the NFL Commissioner talking about how anxious the league is to get back to Las Vegas, I think both of us left the market really enthusiastic about what this partnership is going to offer our guests around the world and our Bonvoy members.

是的。我和Leeny上週末都在拉斯維加斯觀看超級碗，所以我想說幾點。首先，看看拉斯維加斯市場的活力，看看這座城市是如何有效率地舉辦這樣一場盛事的，你可能也聽到了NFL總裁談到聯盟多麼渴望重返拉斯維加斯。我想我們倆離開拉斯維加斯時都對這項合作將為我們全球的賓客和萬豪旅享家會員帶來的益處感到非常興奮。

In terms of your specific question, as we talked about when we announced the transaction, it is a creative opportunity for us, where I think you will continue to see lots of activity for us is in traditional conversions, but in the category of multiunit conversions. You heard us a quarter ago talk about a terrific multiunit conversion in Vietnam with a partner called Vinpearl, and our teams around the world are actively working on a number of multiunit conversions.

關於您提出的具體問題，正如我們在宣布交易時所談到的，這對我們來說是一個充滿創意的機會。我認為您會繼續看到我們在傳統改造領域，尤其是在多單元改造方面開展大量業務。三個月前，您也聽到我們談到與越南一家名為Vinpearl的合作夥伴共同完成的一個非常棒的多單元改造專案。我們全球各地的團隊也正在積極推動多個多單元改造專案。

To the extent a unique opportunity like MGM presents itself, I think we'll roll up our sleeves and see if we can make sense of it. We're really excited about what MGM does for Bonvoy. And if those sorts of opportunities present themselves, we are certainly open to pursuing.

如果出現像米高梅這樣獨特的機遇，我想我們會全力以赴，看看能否把握住。我們對米高梅為萬豪旅享家帶來的價值感到非常興奮。如果這類機會出現，我們當然樂於把握。

We'll take our next question from Michael Bellisario with Baird.

接下來，我們將回答貝爾德公司的麥可貝利薩裡奧提出的問題。

Just on the capital allocation front, been a handful of reports there's a few smaller brands for sale, particularly domestically. Are you seeing any more interesting tuck-in M&A opportunities? And does the math pencil any better or worse, especially relative to where your stock is trading today?

就資本配置方面而言，有不少報告指出一些規模較小的品牌正在出售，尤其是在國內市場。您是否看到其他更有吸引力的併購機會？從財務角度來看，這些併購是否更有利可圖，特別是考慮到您公司股票目前的交易價格？

Well, some great questions. And as we have said for a long time, we've been very consistent in our message about really always being willing to entertain the way that we grow. We have grown very successfully, both in terms of tuck-in brand acquisitions as well as growing organic new brands, and growing that way around the world. We will continue to do that. We also are going to stay very price disciplined in terms of looking at both the price that you would be paying for the existing distribution as well as for the growth opportunities.

好的，問了一些很好的問題。正如我們一直以來所說的，我們始終堅持開放包容的概念，不斷探索新的發展方式。無論是透過收購現有品牌，還是自主打造全新品牌，我們都取得了巨大的成功，並且在全球範圍內實現了這樣的成長。我們將繼續保持這種發展勢頭。同時，我們也將嚴格控制價格，既關注現有分銷管道的成本，也關注未來的成長機會。

We are really aware of looking at where something could add something unique to our portfolio, whether it is in a certain part of the world, as we did with the City Express deal, that really was a tremendous way for us to enter the mid-scale space in a really attractive market like Mexico, at an absolutely reasonable price.

我們非常清楚要尋找能夠為我們的投資組合增添獨特之處的事物，無論是在世界的某個特定地區，就像我們收購 City Express 那樣，這確實是一個絕佳的方式，讓我們能夠以絕對合理的價格進入墨西哥這樣一個極具吸引力的中型市場。

So I think in that regard, you got to look at all the elements. And what's out there, as you know, depends very much on the sellers' expectations of what they're looking for. I would say that, over time, we hope to see that those opportunities continue to be there and that we're going to remain as disciplined as we have before in looking at them.

所以我覺得在這方面，必須考慮所有因素。如你所知，市場上的情況很大程度上取決於賣家的預期。我想說的是，隨著時間的推移，我們希望這些機會能夠持續存在，並且我們會像以往一樣，保持嚴謹的態度去尋找它們。

I'll just build on Leeny's comment. I think this historical blend of considering acquisitions where we think they fill an opportunity in our brand architecture or accelerate our growth in a geography where we're not happy with our pace of organic growth, but also looking at the launch of organic platforms, is a strategy that has served us well and a strategy that will continue to guide our thinking about adding new platforms.

我只想補充Leeny的評論。我認為，我們一直以來都奉行這樣的策略：一方面，我們會考慮收購，因為我們認為收購可以填補品牌架構中的空白，或者加速我們在某些​​地區（例如，我們對自身自然增長速度不滿意的地區）的增長；另一方面，我們也會關注自主平台的推出。這種策略行之有效，並將繼續引導我們思考如何拓展新平台。

It's interesting, I was looking at some numbers last night. Autograph, which was a platform in the soft brand space that we launched from scratch, between the open and pipeline, we have more than 400 hotels. And AC by Marriott, which was a platform that we acquired in Spain, that at time of acquisition, I think, had 80 or 90 hotels, today between open and pipeline has nearly 400 hotels. And so there are a variety of strategies to add compelling platforms to the portfolio, and we'll continue to look at both.

很有意思，我昨晚看了一些數據。 Autograph 是我們從零開始打造的軟品牌平台，目前已開幕和籌建中的飯店加起來超過 400 家。 AC by Marriott 是我們收購的西班牙品牌，收購時好像只有 80 到 90 家酒店，現在已開業和籌建中的酒店也接近 400 家。所以，我們有很多策略可以為我們的產品組合增添更多優質平台，我們會繼續關注這兩個平台。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one quick follow-up on midscale. What does the owner profile there look like, thinking about the mix of existing Marriott franchises versus new owners? And would you expect that mix to be similar for the new brand?

明白了，這很有幫助。關於中檔飯店，我還有一個後續問題。考慮到現有萬豪特許經營酒店和新業主之間的比例，那裡的業主組成是怎樣的？您認為新品牌的業主組成也會類似嗎？

Yes, very similar. A great mix. Always welcoming new owners into our stable of owners and franchises. But I would say, when I think about the StudioRes, some of the blend of what we're seeing in terms of the what I call the onesies and twosies where somebody is kind of in a particular market, been very successful and wants to build a hotel there, I would say many of them in the StudioRes space reflect multi-unit expectations on the part of partners of ours who we've been working with for a long time.

是的，非常相似。這是一個很棒的組合。我們始終歡迎新的業主加入我們的業主和加盟商行列。但我想說，就 StudioRes 而言，我們看到的一些組合，比如我稱之為“一兩家”的小型項目——有人在某個特定市場取得了巨大成功，並希望在那裡建造一家酒店——與 StudioRes 的許多項目反映了我們長期合作夥伴的多單元經營預期。

We'll take our next question from David Katz with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將回答來自傑富瑞集團的戴維·卡茨提出的問題。

Okay. I apologize. I wanted to just drill a little bit deeper into the conversion discussion, if I may. Just looking at the percentage of your pipeline versus what we've seen elsewhere. If you could talk more about where those are coming from, what the strategies are, whether there's any change in the landscape geographies, whether there's a change in pricing, what's new with it. It's been such an important discussion for the past year or so among everyone, including yourselves.

好的，抱歉。如果可以的話，我想更深入地探討一下轉換率的問題。我想看看你們的銷售管道轉換率與我們在其他地方看到的相比如何。能否詳細談談這些轉換率的來源、策略、市場格局（地理）是否有任何變化、定價是否有任何調整，以及有哪些新的變化？在過去一年左右的時間裡，這一直是包括你們在內的所有人討論的重要議題。

Sure. So conversions have always been an important part of our growth story, in a climate where the debt markets for new construction are somewhat constricted, the importance of conversions is elevated. As we talked about in the opening, really compelling numbers in 2023 with 25% of our openings and 40% of our signings in the conversion category.

當然。在目前新建專案債務市場略顯緊縮的環境下，改建專案一直是我們成長的重要組成部分，其重要性也因此凸顯。正如我們在開頭提到的，2023年的數據非常亮眼，我們25%的新開工項目和40%的新簽約項目都屬於改建項目。

They are coming in terms of type of project, pretty typical of what we've seen over the last number of years. A good mixture of conversions from other brands and with such a compelling stack of soft brands with Luxury Collection, Autograph and Tribute. Lots of conversions coming from the world of independents as well.

從專案類型來看，它們與我們過去幾年看到的非常相似。既有其他品牌的轉型項目，也有像Luxury Collection、Autograph和Tribute這樣極具吸引力的軟品牌組合。此外，還有許多項目來自獨立零售商。

From a geographical perspective, not necessarily a shift in strategy, but we are seeing in, for instance, some of the Asia Pacific markets, which historically had been disproportionately new build, we are seeing some uptick in conversion activity. Our pursuit of conversion opportunities is quite deliberate, and it's resulting in deals like the one I mentioned earlier in Vietnam.

從地域角度來看，這未必是戰略上的轉變，但例如在一些亞太市場，這些市場歷來以新建項目為主，如今我們看到改建活動有所增加。我們積極尋求改建機會，並促成了像我之前提到的越南交易那樣的案例。

We will take our next question from Patrick Scholes with Truist Securities.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Truist Securities 的 Patrick Scholes 提出的問題。

I want to drill down a little bit on the credit card fees. It looks like you're expecting a big step-up in, if I understand it correctly, a step up in growth rate for 2024, which actually, I think you said 9% to 10%, which, if I'm correct, is a little bit lower than the Investor Day of 12%. But specifically with that step up, are you expecting that from primarily new card sign-ups or more so from sort of same user spend?

我想更深入地了解信用卡費用。如果我理解正確的話，您似乎預計2024年的成長率會大幅提升，實際上，我記得您說過是9%到10%，如果我沒記錯的話，這比投資者日上提到的12%略低。但具體來說，您預計這項成長主要來自新卡用戶，還是更多來自現有用戶的消費成長？

Sure. So first of all, I want to kind of be clear. The difference between the growth rates between '23 and '24 I would not expect to be very different across the credit cards. They grew 9% to 10% in '23, and we would expect them to do fairly similarly in '24. That is overwhelmingly a function of increase in the number of cardholders. As you've heard us talk about, we've been really successful in adding credit cards in a number of countries. We've really expanded that program quite a bit. And in some of the markets, I'll point out Japan as an example, we've just seen really wonderful acceptance of the Bonvoy credit card.

當然。首先，我想先說明一點。 2023 年和 2024 年各信用卡的成長率差異預計不會太大。 2023 年的成長率在 9% 到 10% 之間，我們預期 2024 年的成長率大致相同。這主要得益於持卡人數量的成長。正如您之前聽到的，我們在許多國家成功推出了信用卡業務，並大幅擴展了該專案。在某些市場，例如日本，萬豪旅享家信用卡的接受度非常高。

So in that respect, I'd say the growth that we would expect in those fees comes overwhelmingly from additional -- having additional cardholders. And then overall, a really very small amount related to a typical cardholder spend.

因此，就此而言，我認為我們預期這些費用的成長主要來自於新增持卡人。而與一般持卡人消費相關的費用則非常小。

Now when I look at overall non-RevPAR fees, I think that's where it gets a little bit interesting, because you were dealing with things like residential where you see residential branding fees tied to when those units open for occupancy. So they're quite lumpy.

現在，當我查看非RevPAR費用時，我認為這才是真正有趣的地方，因為你之前討論的是住宅項目，你會看到住宅品牌推廣費與這些單元何時開放入住掛鉤。所以這些費用波動很大。

So as I explained in Q1, we expect them to be meaningfully lower in Q1 than Q1 in '23, while for the full year, we actually are seeing that business do very well. And we expect year-over-year to see fantastic growth in branding fees overall for the year in '24 over '23. So when you look overall at the non-RevPAR fees, we're excited about to see them continue to grow at these roughly double-digit sorts of numbers for another year.

正如我在第一季解釋的那樣，我們預計2024年第一季的品牌推廣費用將顯著低於2023年第一季度，但就全年而言，這項業務實際上表現非常出色。我們預計2024年品牌推廣費用將比2023年實現顯著的年成長。因此，從整體上看，非RevPAR費用我們很高興地看到它們在未來一年繼續保持兩位數的成長。

And we will take our next question from Robin Farley with UBS.

接下來，我們將回答瑞銀集團的 Robin Farley 提出的問題。

Great. Circling back to the unit growth, and I know you've given a lot of great color around it. Just looking at the kind of 2-year CAGR you've given at the Investor Day, excluding MGM when the timing of that wasn't quite known, so it's kind of implying that '24 and '25 would be up, excluding MGM, in the kind of 4% to 5% range. And I think the '24 guide today, ex MGM, is up in the kind of 3%, 4% range. So maybe expecting an acceleration to 5% to 6% growth next year.

好的。回到單位成長的話題，我知道您對此做了許多詳細的闡述。看看您在投資者日上給出的兩年複合年增長率（CAGR），當時還不確定米高梅的收購時間，所以這似乎暗示著2024年和2025年（不包括米高梅）的增長率會在4%到5%之間。而我認為今天您給出的2024年業績指引（不包括米高梅）在3%到4%之間。因此，或許可以預期明年的成長率會加速到5%到6%。

And just wondering, I know you talked about the likelihood that conversions will be a higher percent of that. You also recently announced a franchise agreement in China that the timing wasn't entirely clear. It was kind of potentially over the next 3 years it could be adding, I don't know if it would be like 50 basis points a year. I guess I wonder if you could tell us whether that franchising agreement, how much of that you expect to be driving the acceleration next year? Just kind of help put some color around the acceleration.

我只是想問一下，我知道您之前提到過轉換率可能會更高。您最近也宣布了一項在中國的特許經營協議，但具體時間還不完全清楚。大概是未來三年內，這項協議可能會帶來一些成長，我不知道具體是每年50個基點左右。我想請您談談，您預計這項特許經營協議會在多大程度上推動明年的成長？希望能更清楚了解成長的趨勢。

Sure. So let me -- I'm going to do the last question first, and then, at some point, Tony, feel free to jump in to add more color. But let's first talk about Delonix, which we're really excited about our relationship there, where they're a terrific large hospitality company in China, and we're looking forward to having the opportunity to convert a number of hotels. And we actually didn't give a time frame.

當然。那我先回答最後一個問題，然後，東尼，你隨時可以補充一些細節。不過，我們先來聊聊德隆尼克斯，我們對與他們建立的合作關係感到非常興奮。德隆尼克斯是中國非常優秀的大型飯店管理公司，我們期待有機會改造多家飯店。實際上，我們並沒有給出具體的時間表。

So it would just be as part of our normal growth in China and as we look at our overall rooms growth. So there's not a particular kind of specific sort of 10, 20, 30, 40 basis points associated with the conversion of a number of those hotels into Tributes. We are, again, really excited about working with them on the opportunity, but it's just part of our overall rooms growth.

所以，這只是我們在中國正常成長的一部分，也是我們整體客房成長的一部分。因此，將部分飯店升級為 Tribute 飯店並不會直接帶來 10、20、30 或 40 個基點的收益成長。我們再次強調，我們非常高興能與他們合作，把握這個機會，但這只是我們整體客房成長計畫的一部分。

As I said, the signings that we're seeing in Greater China are very encouraging both in '23 and as we move into '24. That's really in addition to what you're talking to about the Delonix deal -- Delonix deal. And that is where I talked about the rooms growth in Asia in the high-single digits, which, again, is just a great reflection of the desire for our brands.

正如我所說，我們在大中華區看到的簽約情況非常令人鼓舞，無論是在2023年還是展望2024年。這與您提到的Delonix交易——Delonix交易——是相輔相成的。我之前也提到過，亞洲客房成長率達到了接近兩位數，這再次充分體現了市場對我們品牌的強勁需求。

When you ask about the basic CAGRs for rooms growth relative to the Security Analyst Meeting that we made in September, I think you really have to kind of go back to what Tony said in his earlier comment, is that these deals can be lumpy, whether it's City Express, whether it's MGM, whether it's a large conversion deal that we do. And so you really need to think about the numbers that we gave that were 5% to 5.5% for the 3-year CAGR, which we continue to be really confident and excited about.

當您詢問我們9月份安全分析師會議上公佈的客房增長基本複合年增長率時，我認為您需要回顧一下Tony之前提到的內容，即這些交易的增長率可能存在波動，無論是City Express、MGM，還是我們進行的大型改建交易。因此，您需要參考我們先前給出的三年複合年增長率5%至5.5%的數據，我們對此仍然充滿信心和期待。

We ended up a little bit higher on our net rooms growth in '23 than the 4.2% to 4.5% range that we gave. And that's really a reflection of the steady strong demand for our brands. So that then when we look at the MGM and the continuation of turning these rooms from our pipeline into openings, we actually see it as being essentially the same as where we were back at the SAM. And then again, you have to kind of be looking at it not solely within the context of 1 year.

2023年我們的淨客房成長率略高於先前預測的4.2%至4.5%。這充分反映了我們旗下品牌持續強勁的需求。因此，當我們審視美高梅酒店集團（MGM）以及將儲備客房轉化為實際開業客房的進展時，我們發現其情況與先前在聖安德烈亞斯酒店集團（SAM）的情況基本相同。當然，我們也需要從更宏觀的角度來看這個問題，而不只限於一年的時間跨度。

And Robin, I think the only other question embedded was about conversion volume. And we mentioned in the open that our openings in '23 were about 25% conversions. Even if you look at '24 expected openings ex MGM, we expect some acceleration to about 30% of those openings being conversions. And when you think about 40% of our signings last year being in the conversion category, that's logical.

羅賓，我想你提到的另一個問題是關於轉換率的。我們之前提到過，2023年新片的轉換率約為25%。即使只看2024年預計的新片（不包括米高梅），我們也預期轉換率會略有提升，達到30%左右。考慮到去年我們簽約的影片中有40%都是轉換影片，這個預測是合乎邏輯的。

And we have reached our allotted time for questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Tony for any additional or closing remarks.

我們的提問時間已經到了。現在我想把電話交還給托尼，讓他補充或總結發言。

Well, as always, thank you again for your interest in Marriott. We are coming off a terrific year in 2023. Tremendously enthusiastic about '24 or what '24 holds. And we look forward to seeing all of you on the road. Safe travels.

一如既往，再次感謝您對萬豪酒店的關注。 2023年我們取得了巨大的成功，對2024年充滿期待。我們期待在旅途中與您相遇。祝您旅途平安。

This does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。