萬豪國際 (MAR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Stand by, we're about to begin. Good day, everyone. And welcome to today's Marriott International first quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

稍等一下，我們即將開始。大家好。歡迎參加今天的萬豪國際 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Jackie McConagha, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在我很高興將會議交給投資者關係資深副總裁 Jackie McConagha。請繼續，女士。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Marriott's first quarter of 2025 earnings call. On the call with me today is Tony Capuano, the President and Chief Executive Officer; Leeny Oberg, our Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President Development; and Pilar Fernandez, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

謝謝。大家早安，歡迎參加萬豪 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起通話的有總裁兼執行長 Tony Capuano、財務長兼開發部執行副總裁 Leeny Oberg 以及投資者關係高級總監 Pilar Fernandez。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are not historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements under Federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, as described in our FCC filings, which could cause future results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by your comments.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們今天的許多評論都不是歷史事實，根據聯邦證券法，它們被視為前瞻性陳述。正如我們的 FCC 文件中所述，這些聲明受到多種風險和不確定性的影響，這可能會導致未來的結果與您的評論中表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。

Unless otherwise stated, our revPAR, occupancy, average daily rate, and property level revenues comments reflect system-wide constant currency results for comparable hotels, and all changes refer to year-over-year changes for the comparable period.

除非另有說明，我們對每間可用客房收入 (revPAR)、入住率、平均每日房價和酒店層面收入的評論反映了可比酒店的全系統恆定貨幣結果，所有變化均指可比期間的同比變化。

Statements in our comments and the press release we issued earlier today are effective only today and will not be updated if actual events unfold. You can find our earnings release and reconciliations of all non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our remarks today on our investor relations website.

我們今天早些時候發表的評論和新聞稿中的聲明僅在今天有效，如果實際事件發生，將不會更新。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到我們今天的評論中提到的收益報告和所有非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。

And now I will turn the call over to Tony.

現在我將把電話轉給托尼。

Thanks, Jackie. Good morning, everyone. We reported strong first quarter results this morning despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment and each of our regions outperformed our expectations.

謝謝，傑基。大家早安。儘管宏觀經濟環境不確定，我們今天上午公佈了強勁的第一季業績，並且我們每個地區的表現都超出了我們的預期。

Development activity remained robust with record first quarter global signings, and we grew net rooms 4.6% over the trailing 12 months through March. First quarter global RevPAR rose 4.1%, just above the top end of our 3% to 4% guidance range, with ADR increasing 3% and occupancy rising one percentage point.

開發活動依然強勁，第一季全球簽約量創下紀錄，截至 3 月的 12 個月內，我們的淨客房數量增加了 4.6%。第一季全球 RevPAR 上漲 4.1%，略高於我們 3% 至 4% 的預期範圍上限，其中 ADR 上漲 3%，入住率上漲一個百分點。

RevPAR in the US and China region rose over 3% with our luxury and full-service hotels, meaningfully outperformance select service properties thanks to solid demand across both group and transient guest.

由於團體客人和臨時客人的強勁需求，我們豪華酒店和全方位服務酒店在美國和中國地區的 RevPAR 增長了 3% 以上，表現明顯優於精選服務酒店。

International RevPAR was up nearly 6%, led by growth in APAC. APAC's first quarter rear rose 11%, driven by strong ADR growth and higher demand from international gifts.

國際 RevPAR 成長近 6%，主要得益於亞太地區的成長。受平均房價 (ADR) 強勁成長和國際禮品需求增加的推動，亞太地區第一季業績上漲 11%。

Growth was broad-based across the region, with RevPAR increases of 16% and 17%, respectively, in its two largest markets, India and Japan. RevPAR in [Callum] rose 7%, led by strong luxury and resorts. In EMEA, RevPAR rose 6% on solid increases in ADR as well as occupancy, with strong transient demand from both in-country and cross-border guests.

該地區普遍實現了成長，其兩個最大市場印度和日本的 RevPAR 分別成長了 16% 和 17%。受豪華酒店和度假村的強勁推動，Callum 的每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 上漲了 7%。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，由於平均房價和入住率的穩定成長，以及國內和跨境客人的強勁臨時需求，RevPAR 上漲了 6%。

First quarter rampart of Greater China declined 2% due to the weaker macro environment and tough year-over-year comparisons, though it did come in ahead of our prior expect -- excuse me, expectation, primarily as a result of strong domestic demand.

由於宏觀環境較弱以及同比形勢嚴峻，大中華區第一季的銷售額下降了 2%，儘管如此，它還是超出了我們之前的預期——對不起，是預期，這主要是由於強勁的國內需求。

This quarter, group was again the standout customer. Group RevPAR rose 8%, both globally and in the US. First quarter business transient and leisure transient, each grew 2% globally, and 1% in the US, with growth driven by ADR increases.

本季度，該集團再次成為傑出的客戶。該集團全球和美國的每間可用客房收入 (RevPAR) 均上漲 8%。第一季度，全球商務客運和休閒客運量均成長 2%，美國成長 1%，成長主要得益於平均房價 (ADR) 的上漲。

While RevPAR trends internationally were strong throughout the quarter, our US and Canada region saw softer growth in March, particularly in the select service sector. We operate a cyclical business and there is no doubt that today, we are in a period of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, especially here in the US, with many concerned about slowing economic activity and lower consumer confidence.

儘管整個季度國際上 RevPAR 趨勢強勁，但我們美國和加拿大地區 3 月的成長有所放緩，尤其是在精選服務領域。我們經營的是周期性業務，毫無疑問，今天我們正處於宏觀經濟不確定性加劇的時期，尤其是在美國，許多人擔心經濟活動放緩和消費者信心下降。

Throughout our long history, we've shown our agility and resilience while also continuing to deliver solid system growth throughout economic cycles. As Leeny will discuss in greater detail, against this macro backdrop, we are lowering our guidance for full year red card growth by 50 basis points due to a more cautious outlook in our US and Canada region.

在我們悠久的歷史中，我們展示了我們的敏捷性和彈性，同時在整個經濟週期中繼續實現穩健的系統成長。正如 Leeny 將更詳細地討論的那樣，在這種宏觀背景下，由於我們對美國和加拿大地區的前景更加謹慎，我們將全年紅牌成長預期下調了 50 個基點。

In whatever environment we find ourselves, we remain focused on driving returns to our hotels and executing our proven long-term growth strategy.

無論我們身處何種環境，我們始終專注於推動酒店回報並執行我們行之有效的長期成長策略。

You can see in our first quarter G&A results the positive benefit from the work we did last year to enhance our efficiency and productivity across the company. While we are marginally lowering our 2025 rear guidance range, we still expect strong net rooms growth for the year and the future.

您可以從第一季的一般及行政管理結果中看到，我們去年為提高整個公司的效率和生產力所做的工作帶來了積極效益。雖然我們略微降低了 2025 年的後期指導範圍，但我們仍然預計今年及未來的淨客房數量將強勁增長。

Owners continue to show preference for our brands. Our global signings have been excellent so far this year, despite uncertainty around construction costs and the challenging financing environment in the US and Europe. Our first quarter signings were up 35% year over year.

業主繼續對我們的品牌表現出偏愛。儘管建築成本存在不確定性，且美國和歐洲的融資環境充滿挑戰，但今年迄今為止，我們的全球簽約情況仍然十分出色。我們第一季的簽約量年增了35%。

Our pipeline totaled a record of over 587,000 rooms at the end of the quarter, with 42% of pipeline rooms under construction. Conversions, including multi-unit opportunities, remain a significant driver of growth, representing about 1/3 of both signings and openings in the quarter.

截至本季末，我們的在建客房總數已超過 587,000 間，其中 42% 的在建客房正在建設中。包括多單元機會在內的轉換仍然是成長的重要驅動力，佔本季簽約和開業數量的約 1/3。

I'm also very excited about our recent citizenM announcement and the expected addition of this unique lifestyle portfolio to our system later this year. This transaction builds on our commitment to expand our industry-leading global portfolio to provide even more exciting and innovative options for guests and hotel owners.

我對我們最近發布的citizenM公告以及預計今年稍後將這一獨特的生活方式產品組合添加到我們的系統中感到非常興奮。此交易建立在我們擴大行業領先的全球投資組合的承諾之上，旨在為客人和酒店業主提供更多令人興奮和創新的選擇。

Comprised of over 8,500 open rooms and 600 pipeline rooms, citizenM is a differentiated brand with unique characteristics that we believe will be a great compliment to our existing lifestyle select brands: AC, Moxy, and Aloft.

CitizenM 擁有超過 8,500 間開放客房和 600 間在建客房，是一個具有獨特特色的差異化品牌，我們相信它將對我們現有的生活方式精選品牌：AC、Moxy 和 Aloft 形成極大的補充。

citizenM is known for its tech-savvy in hotel experience, highly efficient use of space, and focus on art and design, and we see a large runway of growth for the brand to market around the world.

CitizenM 以其精湛的技術、高效的空間利用以及對藝術和設計的關注而聞名，我們看到該品牌在全球市場有著巨大的成長空間。

Our powerful industry leading Marriott Bonvoy Loyalty Program had nearly 237 million members at the end of March. Marriott Bonvoy member penetration rose again, reaching a record of 68% of room nights globally.

截至三月底，我們強大的、業界領先的萬豪旅享家忠誠計畫已擁有近 2.37 億會員。萬豪旅享家會員滲透率再次上升，全球間夜量達到創紀錄的 68%。

Honoring our members' appetites for experiences, we recently launched our newest global ad campaign titled You Are the Greatest Souvenir, which showcases our wide range of offerings and celebrates travel's power and creating lasting memories.

為了滿足會員對體驗的渴望，我們最近推出了最新的全球廣告活動，名為“你是最棒的紀念品”，展示了我們廣泛的產品系列，並頌揚了旅行的力量和創造持久記憶的能力。

We're also continuing to make great progress on the multi-year digital and technology transformation of our reservations, property management, and loyalty systems. We expect this new technology platform to further strengthen our efficient operating model, enhance Marion Bonvoy, and elevate both the associate and customer digital experience.

我們也在預訂、物業管理和忠誠度系統的多年數位化和技術轉型方面繼續取得巨大進展。我們希望這個新的技術平台能夠進一步加強我們高效的營運模式，增強 Marion Bonvoy，並提升員工和客戶的數位體驗。

It is also expected to unlock new revenue opportunities through enhanced functionality and options such as booking specific room types and amenities in advance and seamless shopping across lodging, F&B, spa, and other non-lodging products.

它還有望透過增強功能和選項來釋放新的收入機會，例如提前預訂特定的房型和設施以及在住宿、餐飲、水療和其他非住宿產品之間的無縫購物。

As always, I spent much of my time, so far, this year traveling around the world. I have visited properties and spent time with associates in every one of our regions. And I've seen firsthand their ability to adapt to changes in their markets and their dedication to delivering outstanding experiences to our guests. I want to express my gratitude to all of our global associates for their hard work and dedication.

像往常一樣，今年到目前為止，我花了大量時間在世界各地旅行。我參觀了我們每個地區的房產，並與同事們一起度過了一段時光。我親眼目睹了他們適應市場變化的能力以及他們致力於為客人提供卓越體驗的能力。我要對我們全球所有同事的辛勤工作和奉獻精神表示感謝。

And now I'll turn the call over to Leeny for more details on our results. Leeny?

現在我將把電話轉給 Leeny，以了解有關我們結果的更多詳細資訊。李尼？

Thank you, Tony. And Tony noted first quarter increased just over 4%. Looking more closely at how we finished the quarter, revPAR in March rose 2%, globally. March revPAR for international regions was a bit ahead of our prior expectations, rising 2.4% or 5%, excluding the impact of Ramadan.

謝謝你，托尼。托尼指出，第一季的增幅略高於 4%。仔細觀察本季的收尾情況，我們發現 3 月全球 revPAR 上漲了 2%。3 月國際地區 revPAR 略高於我們先前的預期，扣除齋戒月的影響，增加了 2.4% 或 5%。

After January and February, results were stronger than we expected. Demand in the US did soften in March, primarily due to a 10% year-over-year decline in US government RevPAR. RevPAR in the US and Canada region rose 2% year over year, which included a nice benefit from the timing of Easter.

一月和二月之後，業績比我們預期的要好。3 月美國的需求確實有所疲軟，主要原因是美國政府每間可用客房收入年減 10%。美國和加拿大地區的 RevPAR 年增 2%，這得益於復活節的到來。

In 2024, the US government segment contributed around 4% of the US and Canada region's room nights at an ADR that was 21% lower than the region's average. To a lesser extent, we also experienced softness in select service and extended state demand in the US in March, mainly driven by lower leisure transient demand, given the less certain macro environment.

2024 年，美國政府部門貢獻了美國和加拿大地區約 4% 的客房晚數，而平均房價比該地區的平均房價低 21%。在較小程度上，3 月我們也經歷了美國精選服務和延長州需求的疲軟，這主要是由於宏觀環境不太確定導致休閒短暫需求下降。

Notably, the uncertainty did not impact results at our higher chain scale hotels, and we did not see signs of trade down from our higher-end customers during the quarter. While we do not have final results for April yet, it looks like year-over-year revPAR, excluding the impact of Easter in both months in the US and Canada, improved sequentially from March to April.

值得注意的是，這種不確定性並未影響我們高端連鎖飯店的業績，而且我們在本季也沒有看到高端客戶的交易量下降的跡象。雖然我們還沒有 4 月的最終結果，但看起來，同比 revPAR（不包括美國和加拿大兩個月的復活節影響）從 3 月到 4 月有所改善。

First quarter total gross fee revenues increased 5% year over year to $1.28 billion. The increase reflects higher revPAR, [room's gross], an 8% increase in co-brand credit card fees, and a significant increase in residential branding fees, related to the timing of unit sales. Currency had a negative $8 million impact on first quarter gross fees in line with our expectations.

第一季總費用營收年增 5% 至 12.8 億美元。這一增長反映了更高的 revPAR（客房總收入）、聯合品牌信用卡費用增加 8% 以及與單位銷售時間相關的住宅品牌費用大幅增加。貨幣對第一季總費用產生了 800 萬美元的負面影響，符合我們的預期。

Incentive management fees or IMF fell 2% to $204 million in the first quarter, with roughly 2/3 earned by international hotels. Increases in APAC were offset by declines in Greater China and in EMEA, partly due to a few properties, converting from managed to franchise. I am after the US and Canada, were relatively in line with last year.

第一季激勵管理費或 IMF 下降 2% 至 2.04 億美元，其中約三分之二來自國際飯店。亞太地區的成長被大中華區和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的下降所抵消，部分原因是少數飯店由管理型轉為特許經營型。我排在美國和加拿大之後，與去年基本持平。

First quarter G&A declined 6% year over year, primarily due to lower compensation costs. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $1.22 billion, an increase of 7%.

第一季的一般及行政開支年減 6%，主要原因是薪資成本降低。調整後 EBITDA 總計 12.2 億美元，成長 7%。

Now let's talk about our outlook for the second quarter in the full year, which assumes the citizenM transaction closes in the back half of the year. Given today's uncertain macro backdrop, we have limited visibility into the back half of the year.

現在讓我們來談談對全年第二季的展望，假設citizenM交易在下半年完成。鑑於當今不確定的宏觀背景，我們對今年下半年的預測有限。

The updated view that we're sharing today does not incorporate a recession. It reflects our current looking trends and assumes that broadly speaking, they continue. It's important to remember that we have a short average booking window of around three weeks for our transient customers which represent around 3/4 of our total room nights. So demand could, of course, change quickly.

我們今天分享的最新觀點並未考慮經濟衰退。它反映了我們當前的趨勢，並假設從廣義上講，這些趨勢將會持續下去。重要的是要記住，對於我們的臨時顧客，我們的平均預訂窗口期很短，大約為三週，這佔了我們總客房晚數的 3/4 左右。因此需求當然可能會快速改變。

Global revPAR is now expected to increase 1.5% to 2.5% in the second quarter, which includes a negative impact from Easter in April and a 1.5% to 3.5% growth for the full year.

目前預計第二季全球 revPAR 將成長 1.5% 至 2.5%，其中包括 4 月復活節的負面影響，全年成長率為 1.5% 至 3.5%。

Our update incorporates lower than previously anticipated revPAR growth in the US and Canada region for the second through fourth quarters of the year. This is primarily due to an expected continuation of declines in US government demand. It also assumes slightly lower, slightly slower growth from US select service hotels due to lower transient demand and marginally lower food rate.

我們的更新考慮到了今年第二季至第四季美國和加拿大地區 revPAR 成長低於先前預期的情況。這主要是由於預計美國政府需求將繼續下降。它還假設美國精選服務酒店的成長速度會略低、略慢，因為臨時需求較低且食品價格略低。

Internationally, demand trends in all regions except Greater China have remained strong, and we have not changed our outlook for international revPAR. Four-year revPAR growth is expected to be meaningfully stronger internationally than in the US and Canada, even with greater China revPAR still anticipated to be around flat compared to last year.

從國際上看，除大中華區外，所有地區的需求趨勢均保持強勁，我們對國際平均每間可用客房收入的展望並未改變。儘管大中華區 revPAR 預計仍將與去年持平，但預計四年 revPAR 國際成長將明顯強於美國和加拿大。

On a global basis, looking at full year revPAR growth by customer segments, though each segment's expectations have softened slightly due to lower US and Canada assumptions, we continue to expect the strongest growth in group.

從全球範圍來看，按客戶細分來看全年 revPAR 的成長情況，儘管由於美國和加拿大的假設降低，每個細分市場的預期都略有下降，但我們仍然預計該集團的成長將最為強勁。

For the full year, group was still pacing up 6% at the end of March, but as usual, could moderate a bit over the remainder of the year. This is followed by business transient, which could be up low single digits, and then laser transient, which could be flat to upload [in].

就全年而言，截至 3 月底，該集團的銷售額仍增長 6%，但與往常一樣，今年剩餘時間內的增長可能會略有放緩。接下來是業務瞬態，可能會上漲個位數，然後是雷射瞬態，可能會平穩上傳[在]。

In the second quarter, gross fee growth could be in the 3% to 4% range. Growth will be impacted by the timing of residential branding fees, which are expected to be down nearly 60% year over year. IMFs are expected to see slight declines, primarily due to renovations at certain properties in the US and Canada region.

第二季度，總費用成長率可能在 3% 至 4% 之間。住宅品牌費用的收取時間將影響成長，預計將年減近 60%。預計 IMF 將略有下降，主要原因是美國和加拿大地區某些物業的翻新。

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase 3% to 5%. For the full year, we expect gross fees of $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion, with IMF still expected to be relatively in line with last year. We still expect gross speed growth of around 5% at the midpoint, despite the midpoint of our full year revPAR growth outlook, coming down 50 basis points.

調整後的 EBITDA 預計將成長 3% 至 5%。我們預計全年總費用為 54 億美元至 55 億美元，預計 IMF 仍將與去年基本持平。儘管我們對全年 revPAR 成長預期的中點下降了 50 個基點，但我們仍然預期中點總速度成長率將在 5% 左右。

This is primarily due to a less meaningful negative FX impact from a weakened dollar and a small fees contribution from citizenM in the back half of the year. Additionally, with 2/3 of our IMF coming from international markets where there is often no owners priority, and the change in our full-year revPAR expectation coming from US and Canada, as I noted, our IMF outlook is not changing.

這主要是因為美元疲軟帶來的負面外匯影響較小，以及下半年citizenM的費用貢獻較小。此外，由於我們的 2/3 IMF 來自通常沒有業主優先權的國際市場，而我們的全年 revPAR 預期變化來自美國和加拿大，正如我所指出的，我們的 IMF 前景並沒有改變。

For the full year, co-brand credit card fee growth is still expected to be a couple 100 basis points lower than the nearly 10% growth in 2024. Residential branding fees are still anticipated to decline nearly 50%, solely due to the timing of unit sales, while timeshare fees are still expected to be around $110 million.

就全年而言，聯名信用卡費用成長預計仍將比 2024 年近 10% 的成長率低數百個基點。住宅品牌費用預計仍將下降近 50%，這完全是由於單位銷售時間的原因，而分時度假費用預計仍將在 1.1 億美元左右。

Owned, leased, and other revenue net of expenses is still expected to total $345 million to $355 million, relatively in line with 2024's results, somewhat impacted by a larger number of renovations that are owned and leased hotels.

自有、租賃和其他收入扣除費用後預計仍將達到 3.45 億美元至 3.55 億美元，與 2024 年的業績基本一致，但受到自有和租賃酒店大量翻新工程的影響。

2025 G&A expense is still anticipated to decline 8% to 10% to $965 million to $985 million. This decline is the result of the expected $80 million to $90 million of above property savings from our enterprise-wide initiative to enhance our effectiveness and efficiency across the company that is also expected to yield cost savings to our owners and franchising.

預計 2025 年一般及行政費用仍將下降 8% 至 10%，至 9.65 億美元至 9.85 億美元。這一下降是由於我們整個企業範圍內的舉措預計將節省 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元的財產成本，以提高整個公司的效率和效益，同時預計還將為我們的業主和特許經營商節省成本。

Four-year adjusted EBITDA could increase between 6% and 9% to roughly $5.3 billion to $5.4 billion. Full year adjusted diluted EPS could total $9.82 to $10.19.

四年調整後的 EBITDA 可能成長 6% 至 9%，達到約 53 億美元至 54 億美元。全年調整後稀釋每股盈餘可能達到 9.82 美元至 10.19 美元。

We still anticipate EPS growth will be impacted by an expected effective tax rate of around 26% compared to under 25% in 2024, reflecting certain international tax rate changes. Our underlying full year core cash tax rate is still anticipated to be in the low 20% range.

我們仍預期每股盈餘成長將受到預期有效稅率約 26% 的影響，而 2024 年則為 25% 以下，這反映了某些國際稅率的變化。我們預計全年核心現金稅率仍將在 20% 的低點範圍內。

Let me also share some sensitivity to help you with modeling. The sensitivity of a 1% change in full year 2025 US revPAR versus 2024 could be around $35 million to $40 million of total revPAR-related fees. The impact of a 1% change in the full year 2025 global revPAR versus 2024, assuming equal changes across all hotels around the world could be around $50 million to $60 million.

我也想分享一些敏感度來幫助你們進行建模。2025 年全年美國 revPAR 與 2024 年相比變化 1% 的敏感度可能為 revPAR 相關費用總額約 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元。假設全球所有飯店的平均可用客房收入 (revPAR) 發生相同變化，則 2025 年全年全球平均可用客房收入 (revPAR) 與 2024 年相比變化 1% 的影響可能約為 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元。

On the back of the citizenM transaction, we now expect our 2025 net rooms growth to approach 5%. As we look ahead with our strong momentum and global signings, we still expect long-term global net rooms growth in the mid-single digit range.

在 CitizenM 交易的支持下，我們預計 2025 年淨客房成長率將接近 5%。展望未來，憑藉強勁的發展勢頭和全球簽約，我們仍預期長期全球淨客房成長率將維持在中等個位數範圍內。

Total investment spending is anticipated to be $1.36 billion to $1.46 billion with spending excluding the $355 billion for the citizen and transactions still expected to total $1 billion to $1.1 billion.

總投資支出預計為 13.6 億美元至 14.6 億美元，其中不包括 3,550 億美元的公民支出，交易總額預計仍為 10 億美元至 11 億美元。

Our capital allocation philosophy remains the same. We're committed to our investment grade rating, investing in growth that is accreted to shareholder value, and then returning excess capital to shareholders through a combination of a modest cash dividend which has risen meaningfully over time and share repurchases. We're pleased with the company's strong first quarter, cash flow performance, and outlook.

我們的資本配置理念保持不變。我們致力於我們的投資等級評級，投資於能夠增加股東價值的成長，然後透過隨著時間的推移而大幅增加的適度現金股息和股票回購等方式將多餘的資本返還給股東。我們對公司第一季的強勁表現、現金流表現和前景感到滿意。

Given strong cash flow generation, we still expect full year capital returns to shareholders to be around $4 billion even after factoring in the $355 million for the citizenM transaction while maintaining our leverage in the lower part of our net debt to even our range of 3 to 3.5 times. Tony and I are now happy to take your questions. Operator?

鑑於強勁的現金流，即使考慮到 3.55 億美元的 CitizenM 交易費用，我們仍然預計全年股東資本回報仍將達到 40 億美元左右，同時將我們的槓桿率保持在淨債務的較低部分，甚至保持在 3 至 3.5 倍的範圍內。托尼和我現在很高興回答你們的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Michael Bellisario, Baird.

邁克爾貝利薩裡奧，貝爾德。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝。大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

Just to start on the macro, could we just zoom in on the sort of weaker select service performance that you noted? How much of that do you think is regional versus the Easter shift impacting demand patterns and then, just more broadly any more thoughts that would be helpful, especially in light of the fact that you said you're not seeing any trade down effect?

從宏觀角度開始，我們能否放大您所指出的較弱的精選服務表現？您認為其中有多少是區域性的，與復活節轉變對需求模式的影響相比，然後，更廣泛地說，還有什麼想法會有幫助，特別是考慮到您說您沒有看到任何貿易下降效應？

Yeah. Maybe, I'll make a couple of broad macro comments and then Leeny maybe, might give you a little more granular response to your answer.

是的。也許，我會做一些廣泛的宏觀評論，然後 Leeny 可能會對你的答案給出更細緻的回應。

We came out of the start of the year really strong; January and February were terrific. March, as Leeny mentioned in her prepared remarks, we saw a little bit of softness around the edges of the US and Canada, and it was as if, the travel community felt a little bit of shock and awe from the early days of the administration.

我們今年的開局非常強勁；一月和二月的表現非常棒。三月份，正如莉尼在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們看到美國和加拿大的邊緣地區出現了一些疲軟跡象，就好像旅遊界對政府執政初期感到了一些震驚和敬畏。

One of the things that's encouraging to us, you heard Leeny talk about preliminary April results. And if you normalize March and April by excluding the impact of Easter, you saw sequential improvement from March to April, which is encouraging.

令我們感到鼓舞的事情之一是，您聽到了 Leeny 談論 4 月的初步結果。如果排除復活節的影響，將三月和四月的情況標準化，你會看到三月到四月的情況有所改善，這是令人鼓舞的。

So the hope is, and embedded in our assumptions is a bit of steady as she goes. Leeny mentioned we're not assuming a recession scenario.

因此，我們希望她能繼續保持穩定，我們的假設也是如此。Leeny 提到，我們沒有假設出現經濟衰退的情況。

We expect to continue to see pretty solid demand on a global basis, a little more weakness in the US and Canada, and the 50 basis point reduction in guidance really is reflective of Leeny's comment, which is tougher visibility into the back half of the year, given the relatively short booking [lead time].

我們預計全球範圍內的需求將繼續保持強勁，而美國和加拿大的需求將略微疲軟，而指導價下調 50 個基點實際上反映了 Leeny 的評論，即考慮到預訂時間相對較短，下半年的可預見性將更加困難[交貨時間]。

Yeah, the only thing I'll add is when you think about the impact of Easter, that ends up being almost kind of around 250 basis points for the month or close to 1% for the quarter and that's really across all US and Canada.

是的，我要補充的唯一一點是，當你考慮到復活節的影響時，最終結果是當月幾乎達到 250 個基點或當季度接近 1%，而且這實際上遍及整個美國和加拿大。

But the other thing that's interesting is that when you take March and April together, so you look at it 25/24, which really then if you look at those months together, which negates the impact of Easter, you see revPAR, going up 1% in US and Canada, obviously, international has been higher.

但另一件有趣的事情是，當你把三月和四月放在一起時，你會看到它是 25/24，那麼如果你把這兩個月放在一起看，就會抵消復活節的影響，你會看到美國和加拿大的 revPAR 上漲了 1%，顯然，國際市場更高。

And then the point that I want to kind of emphasize there is that we do believe March had some almost a bit of a one-time impact from the shock of the government layoffs as well as a lot of tariff announcements, et cetera, and the sequential improvement that Tony talked about is something that we see continuing with the one caveat that we do believe that the biggest impact of our reduction in revPAR in the US and Canada for the rest of the year is all about continued reduced government nights.

然後我想強調的一點是，我們確實認為 3 月份受到了政府裁員以及大量關稅公告等衝擊的一次性影響，而 Tony 談到的連續改善是我們看到的持續影響，但有一個警告，我們確實認為，今年剩餘時間內美國和加拿大 revPAR 下降的最大影響在於政府住宿晚數的持續減少。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just one follow up on citizenM, what's the owner's commitment to build or convert more hotels for that brand? That's all for me. Thank you.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後關於citizenM的後續問題，業主承諾為該品牌建造或改造更多酒店嗎？對我來說就這些了。謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, I think it's less of a commitment and just really profound enthusiasm about the positioning of the brand among -- as we talked with the owners of citizenM. The thing I believe they found so intriguing about this partnership is the ability to plug into Leeny's extraordinarily strong network of developers around the world and really accelerate the growth of the platform the way they always envisioned.

是的，我的意思是，我認為這不是一種承諾，而是一種對品牌定位的深切熱情——正如我們與citizenM的所有者交談時所說的那樣。我認為他們之所以對這項合作關係如此感興趣，是因為它能夠融入 Leeny 遍布全球的極其強大的開發者網絡，並真正以他們一直設想的方式加速平台的發展。

Shaun Kelly, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肖恩凱利 (Shaun Kelly)。

Hi, good morning, everyone. Tony, Leeny, maybe we could tackle the development side of the equation. Obviously, your comments it looks like your activity in the quarter were very encouraging, but you -- could you help us dig in a little bit, particularly on the full-service side, just how our conversations like in the US right now?

大家好，早安。東尼、萊尼，也許我們可以解決這個問題的發展面。顯然，您的評論表明您本季的活動非常令人鼓舞，但是您能否幫助我們深入了解一下，特別是在全方位服務方面，我們現在在美國的對話情況如何？

What are some of the risks around just slippage with tariffs or kind of uncertainty and you know, how are developers sort of reacting to, what we consider the run rate here in March and April, once some of this uncertainty uncertainties kicked in a little bit. Thank you.

關稅下滑或不確定性帶來的一些風險有哪些？您知道，一旦這些不確定性因素開始出現，開發商對 3 月和 4 月的營運率作何反應？謝謝。

Sure, so again, maybe I'll start at a high level and then let Leeny give more detail. To me, shown the most encouraging metric on growth that we shared was we signed more rooms in Q1 than in any Q1 in our history.

當然，也許我會從高層次開始，然後讓 Leeny 提供更多細節。對我來說，我們所分享的最令人鼓舞的成長指標是，我們在第一季簽約的客房數量比歷史上任何一個第一季都多。

So that in many ways, reinforces a theme we've talked about the last number of quarters, which is the vast majority of our owner and franchisee community are long-term investors in the sector, not necessarily getting spooked by some of this short-term turbulence.

因此，從許多方面來說，這強化了我們在過去幾個季度中討論過的一個主題，即我們的業主和特許經營商群體中的絕大多數都是該行業的長期投資者，不一定會被這種短期動盪所嚇倒。

They believe in the long-term opportunity and the long-term demand trends. They're excited, particularly here in the US and Canada, about a continuation of historically low additions to supply and what that means for them in terms of opportunities. They are, to be sure, a bit frustrated about the relative lack of availability of debt financing for new construction, but they are quite bullish on the long term.

他們相信長期機會和長期需求趨勢。他們感到興奮，特別是在美國和加拿大，因為供應量將繼續處於歷史低位，這對他們來說意味著什麼機會。可以肯定的是，他們對新建築債務融資相對缺乏感到有些沮喪，但他們對長期前景相當樂觀。

Yeah, I have a couple of comments for you, Sean. One is to reinforce what Tony was saying is that our signings were up very nicely in every continent around the world, except for one, and that was solely because they had a very large multi-unit deal a year ago in the first quarter.

是的，肖恩，我有幾點評論要告訴你。一是要強調托尼所說的話，除了一個大洲以外，我們在全球各大洲的簽約量都有了很好的增長，這完全是因為他們在一年前第一季度達成了一項非常大的多單位交易。

And so, when you kind of look at year-over-year increases in signings, we're over 30% compared to the year of quarter. I think it continues to demonstrate the real momentum. We continue to have a view that conversions will be around 30%, and that has continued to be the case in signings.

因此，當您查看簽約量同比增長時，您會發現與去年同期相比，我們的簽約量增長了 30% 以上。我認為它繼續展現出真正的勢頭。我們仍然認為轉換率將在 30% 左右，而且在簽約方面也一直如此。

And then kind of lastly, I'll touch on your point about under construction, which is there's no doubt that owners are evaluating what's going on with their construction cost and how they're thinking about, kind of the elements of -- kind of raw materials, et cetera.

最後，我想談談您關於在建工程的觀點，毫無疑問，業主正在評估他們的建築成本，以及他們如何考慮原材料等因素。

But we haven't seen the pace of construction starts drop. Are they still below 2019 levels? Absolutely, Marriott had the most new construction started in the US and Canada in 2024, in the US.

但我們並未看到建築開工速度下降。它們是否仍低於 2019 年的水準？毫無疑問，2024 年萬豪在美國和加拿大的新建築開工數量最多。

And we're pleased with what we see, but there is no doubt to your question, quite a bit of watching to see what looks to be the impact on construction costs. But for the moment, it's steady as she goes in the US and Canada for new construction.

我們對所看到的結果感到滿意，但對於您的問題毫無疑問，我們進行了相當多的觀察，以了解其對建築成本的影響。但目前，由於她前往美國和加拿大進行新建築施工，所以情況穩定。

And then Shaun, maybe just one other statistic to further reinforce the confidence within our owner community. Generally, we're seeing fallout from the pipeline pretty consistent with what we've seen historically.

然後肖恩，也許只需另一個統計數據就可以進一步增強我們業主社區的信心。總體而言，我們看到的管道後果與我們歷史上看到的情況非常一致。

But interestingly in Q1, and to be sure, one quarter doesn't make a trend, but fallout was about half of our typical quarterly average, so the strength of the pipeline continues to be pretty encouraging.

但有趣的是，在第一季度，可以肯定的是，一個季度並沒有形成趨勢，但影響卻約為我們典型季度平均值的一半，因此管道的強度仍然非常令人鼓舞。

Thank you and then maybe just as a very brief follow up, but you know Tony, there's some high level concerns out there about just sort of US brands operating in China, specifically given the specific trade tensions there, could you just kind of think about, help us think about, your positioning there? How do you kind of navigate that as a CEO, just a few thoughts on that? And that's it for me. Thank you.

謝謝，然後可能只是一個非常簡短的跟進，但你知道托尼，人們對在中國運營的美國品牌有一些高層擔憂，特別是考慮到那裡的具體貿易緊張局勢，你能否想一想，幫助我們思考一下，你們在那裡的定位？作為一名首席執行官，您如何應對這一問題，我對此有一些想法嗎？對我來說就是這樣。謝謝。

Thank you, Shaun. Yeah, so we've talked about this a bit in the past. To me, one of the things that gives me a lot of confidence that the long-term opportunity for China, which is in fact our second largest market.

謝謝你，肖恩。是的，我們之前已經討論過這個問題了。對我來說，讓我充滿信心的一件事就是中國市場的長期機遇，事實上中國是我們的第二大市場。

We really are woven into the economy there, almost the entirety of our 600-plus hotel operating portfolio, almost the entirety of our more than 400 hotel pipeline is Chinese owned. The vast majority of the associates working in those hotels are domestic Chinese associates. And so I don't think there is a view in that market that we are just a big American company.

我們確實已經融入了那裡的經濟，我們經營的 600 多家酒店幾乎全部由中國人擁有，我們籌建的 400 多家酒店幾乎全部由中國人擁有。這些飯店中絕大多數的員工都是中國國內員工。因此，我認為市場上不會有人認為我們只是一家美國大公司。

I mean, the -- it is viewed in many ways as a Chinese business. The fact that the market is being so driven by domestic Chinese demand and the way that we're performing there, I think, is reflective of the manner in which that domestic Chinese traveler has embraced our portfolio. Thank you. Sure.

我的意思是——它在許多方面都被視為中國企業。事實上，市場受到中國國內需求的推動，而我們在中國的表現也反映了中國國內遊客對我們產品組合的接受程度。謝謝。當然。

David Katz, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的戴維·卡茨。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Morning. So I wanted to drill down just a bit on the nug guidance, which is 4% to 5%, inclusive of citizenM.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。早晨。因此，我想深入研究 nug 指導，即 4% 到 5%，包括 CitizenM。

And noting your commentary that it's pushed toward the higher end, could you just talk through maybe the puts and takes of -- if citizenM is adding 50 basis points, is there a reasonable thought that it could have risen to 4.5% to 5.5%? And what if anything changed that may have altered the thinking there?

並且注意到您評論說它被推向了更高的水平，您能否談談其中的利弊——如果citizenM增加50個基點，是否有合理的想法認為它可能會升至4.5％至5.5％？如果發生任何變化，可能會改變那裡的想法嗎？

Yeah. Sure. No, I think it's the reality, David, that we start at the beginning of the year with this wider range as we do, given you're at the very beginning of the year. It's absolutely no other change to our view except that we're farther in the year. We've got greater visibility, and this is our best thinking at the moment that with citizenM, we're approaching 5%, so no change compared to a quarter of them.

是的。當然。不，大衛，我認為現實情況是，我們從年初就開始採用這種更廣泛的範圍，因為你正處於年初。除了我們在今年走得更遠之外，我們的觀點絕對沒有改變。我們的知名度提高了，目前我們最好的想法是，有了citizenM，我們的市佔率已經接近 5%，所以與他們的四分之一相比沒有變化。

Got it. And if I can ask one other quick follow up with respect to the guidance. In going through it, a number of the metrics came down, a very small amount, but the EPS remained the same.

知道了。我是否可以就該指導再問一次快速跟進的問題。在此過程中，許多指標都下降了，雖然下降幅度很小，但每股盈餘保持不變。

Is that -- is there anything to that other than, just one quarter farther down the road, with some buybacks, or is there any other movement in there look like the tax rates the same, et cetera?

那是不是——除了再過一個季度，進行一些回購之外，還有其他情況嗎？或是有其他動向，例如稅率是否相同等等？

No, I think -- as I talked about in my comments, we basically had, yes, a reduction in revPAR which obviously has its impact on fees, but we had several other items that basically help to get us back to that $10 midpoint for EPS.

不，我認為——正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們的 revPAR 基本上有所減少，這顯然會對費用產生影響，但我們還有其他幾個項目基本上有助於我們回到 EPS 的 10 美元中點。

One of it is a little bit less FX impact, negative FX impact as the dollar is weakened a little bit. You do have a little bit of assumption of citizenM fees, assuming that the deal closes in the back half of the year and then, as I talked about on IMF because we are not changing international revPAR and those IMF really flow through without the others priority.

其中之一就是外匯影響略為減弱，由於美元略為走弱，外匯影響為負面。您確實對 CitizenM 費用有一些假設，假設交易在下半年完成，然後，正如我在 IMF 上談到的那樣，因為我們不會改變國際 revPAR，而且那些 IMF 確實會流入而沒有其他優先權。

The IMF picture for the company, even with the change in revPAR is not changing. And so, you put all those together and a number of our other areas stay the same relative to owned and leased G&A, and that frankly, puts you right back at the $10 midpoint for EPS.

即使 revPAR 發生變化，該公司的 IMF 狀況也沒有改變。因此，將所有這些放在一起，我們的其他一些領域相對於自有和租賃的 G&A 保持不變，坦率地說，這會使 EPS 回到 10 美元的中點。

EBITDA, that midpoint lowered ever so slightly by $10 million and that is solely a function of a refinement of a couple ad backs that we have in our EBITDA, one being reimbursed depreciation on reimbursed cost that impacted that. So again, overwhelmingly, no change.

EBITDA，該中點略微降低了 1000 萬美元，這僅僅是我們對 EBITDA 中的幾個廣告支援的改進的結果，其中一個是影響該結果的已補償成本的折舊補償。所以，再次強調，絕大多數情況下，沒有改變。

Understood, thank you very much.

明白了，非常感謝。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林。

Hi, thanks. Maybe just to follow up on the pipeline conversation. I think there's been some questions around both fees per room over time as well as key money or the need to lend is associated with development.

你好，謝謝。也許只是為了跟進管道對話。我認為，人們對每間客房的費用以及禮金或貸款需求存在一些疑問，這些都與開發有關。

Love to hear just how you think about the fee per room kind of trajectory that's embedded within the pipeline and any capital support, whether it's contract acquisition costs or otherwise and how you see that changing over time? Thanks.

很想聽聽您對管道內嵌入的每間客房費用軌跡和任何資本支持的看法，無論是合約收購成本還是其他成本，以及您如何看待它隨時間的變化？謝謝。

Sure, maybe I'll take the key money one and you can take (inaudible). The key money, to be sure, particularly given the growing importance of conversions across the industry, you are seeing incrementally more use of key money.

當然，也許我會拿押金，你可以拿（聽不清楚）。可以肯定的是，特別是考慮到整個產業轉換的重要性日益增加，你會看到關鍵資金的使用越來越多。

It tends to be more frequently used in the upper quality tiers, luxury and upper upscale, although occasionally, we'll see it come down a category or two, particularly for some of the larger custom urban deals.

它往往更頻繁地用於較高品質等級、豪華和高檔，但偶爾，我們會看到它下降一兩個類別，特別是對於一些較大的客製化城市交易。

As our system grows and grows meaningfully, not unreasonable to assume that the absolute amount of key money will go up, but interestingly, in 2024, the average amount of key money per deal came down a bit.

隨著我們的系統不斷發展壯大，假設密鑰資金的絕對數量將會上升，這並非不合理，但有趣的是，到 2024 年，每筆交易的平均密鑰資金數量有所下降。

And so, I think the takeaway from that should be we continue to use the same rigor and discipline that we always have in evaluating when and if we should use some measure of merit balance sheet capacity to drive growth. And as we've talked about frequently, we tend to use Marriott Capital and deals that drive disproportionately high fees.

因此，我認為我們應該繼續使用一貫的嚴謹性和紀律性來評估何時以及是否應該使用某種衡量績效資產負債表能力來推動成長。正如我們經常談到的，我們傾向於使用萬豪資本和那些收費過高的交易。

And on the fees per key, obviously the kind of the basics are first that fees per key are going to go up with revPAR. So just a reminder that as revPAR goes up, you're going to get some natural growth there and sure enough our fees per key are increasing.

關於每把鑰匙的費用，顯然首先的基本情況是，每把鑰匙的費用將隨著每間可用客房收入 (revPAR) 的增加而上漲。因此需要提醒的是，隨著 revPAR 的上升，您將獲得一些自然增長，並且我們的每間客房費用肯定會增加。

I'll also say that when you look at our overall pipeline, given we're growing more internationally than we are in the US, and that is disproportionately full service, you've also got greater strength there supporting the continued growth in fees per key.

我還要說的是，當你看我們的整體管道時，考慮到我們在國際上的增長速度比在美國更快，而且我們提供的全方位服務不成比例，所以我們在那裡也有更大的實力支持每鍵費用的持續增長。

Lastly, as there are non-revPAR related fees which also tend to grow a bit faster than revPAR. And you put that together and I would say, seeing fees per key continuing to grow, assuming that the kind of revPAR assumptions that we've given you, would be our best estimate.

最後，非 revPAR 相關費用的成長速度也往往比 revPAR 快一點。把這些綜合起來，我想說，看到每間客房的費用持續增長，假設我們給您的 revPAR 假設是我們最好的估計。

Super helpful and maybe one other quick follow up, just on the co-brand credit card. I'm curious if you saw anything in the spend on the co-brand credit card that may suggest any kind of stocking up, more focus on goods or retail versus typical travel that may have occurred, at any point during the quarter. Thanks.

非常有幫助，也許還有另一個快速跟進，僅針對聯名信用卡。我很好奇，您是否在聯名信用卡的消費中看到了任何跡象，表明在本季度的任何時候，都有可能發生任何類型的囤貨、更多地關注商品或零售，而不是典型的旅行。謝謝。

So I think -- and you've heard this, I'm sure from the credit card companies as well, there continues to be, frankly from our perspective, a really positive continued interest in travel, in a real prioritization of travel.

所以我認為——你們也聽到了這一點，我相信信用卡公司也是如此，坦白說，從我們的角度來看，人們對旅行仍然保持著真正積極的興趣，並且真正優先考慮旅行。

When people look at what they're doing now, there is a bit of a difference that we noted in our revPAR which is that leisure in the lower price tiers was showing some signs of weaker demand, but in the credit card spend, I would say kind of nothing, very kind of meaningful or super obvious, so far.

當人們審視他們現在所做的事情時，我們會發現我們的 revPAR 存在一些差異，即較低價格等級的休閒活動顯示出需求減弱的跡象，但在信用卡消費方面，我想說到目前為止這沒什麼特別的，非常有意義或非常明顯的。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Ari Klein, BMO Capital Markets.

Ari Klein，BMO 資本市場。

Thank you and good morning. Was hoping maybe you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing with respect to inbound international travel to the US and to the extent that that is happening, our other international markets benefits?

謝謝，早安。您是否可以談談您對美國入境國際旅遊的看法，以及在這種情況下我們的其他國際市場如何受益？

Yeah, of course. So, the interesting thing -- if you look in aggregate, we're actually about a point above where we were pre-pandemic in 2019, about 20% of total room nights globally are from cross-border guests. In the US, international room night mix in Q1 was about 6%, which was about 70 basis points higher than full year 2024.

是的，當然。因此，有趣的是——如果從總體來看，我們實際上比 2019 年疫情之前高出一個點，全球約 20% 的總客房晚數來自跨境客人。在美國，第一季國際客房間夜量約 6%，比 2024 年全年高出約 70 個基點。

Every month of Q1, including March, saw a higher international mix than the prior year. And to be sure, Canadian inbound was impacted. It was down about 5% in Q1, but strong inbound demand from other countries around the world more than made up for that decline.

第一季的每個月（包括三月）的國際化程度都高於前一年。可以肯定的是，加拿大入境旅遊受到了影響。第一季下降了約 5%，但來自世界其他國家的強勁入境需求彌補了這一下降。

Thanks for that and then just on the government, you mentioned some of the weakness you saw there in March, has that started to stabilize in April and any signs of weakness that government adjacent businesses such as consultants?

謝謝，然後就政府而言，您提到了 3 月份看到的一些弱點，4 月份這些弱點是否已經開始穩定下來，以及政府相關企業（例如諮詢公司）是否有任何疲軟跡象？

Yeah, so we have not -- don't have all the details yet on April revPAR. I think you certainly can expect that government continued to be down, but as we entered the month, we weren't seeing that it was starting to go down further, but it will take another month for that to kind of square away.

是的，我們還沒有掌握 4 月份 revPAR 的所有詳細資訊。我想你當然可以預料到政府開支會繼續下降，但進入本月後，我們並沒有看到它開始進一步下降，但這種情況還需要一個月的時間才能解決。

And then, as you think about the adjacent businesses, those depend a bit more on exactly which area they are serving. One interesting thing is that from the big consulting firms, which, as you remember, have been some of the biggest laggards relative to 2019, we saw some really nice pick up in their business, and obviously, they have a very strong ADR as we came into Q1.

然後，當您考慮相鄰的業務時，它們更取決於它們所服務的特定區域。有趣的是，從大型顧問公司來看，正如你記得的，它們是 2019 年最大的落後者之一，但我們看到它們的業務出現了非常好的增長，而且顯然，進入第一季後，它們的 ADR 非常強勁。

But again, when we think of generally, the business travel that is related to government that in the US would add one more percent of nights. So it's not a really big part. The 4% that we describe in the US and Canada that is purely government related, that is the one where we were talking about revPAR, being down 10%.

但是，當我們再考慮一般情況時，與政府相關的商務旅行在美國將增加 1% 的住宿晚數。所以這並不是很重要的部分。我們在美國和加拿大描述的 4% 純粹與政府有關，也就是我們所說的 revPAR，下降了 10%。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安（Conor Cunningham），Melius Research。

Hi, everyone. Thank you. I'm just going back to group for a second. So you talked about the booking curve, and I have some limited visibility, but on group it seems like you have a fair bit. So if you could just talk about how things have trended maybe in '26, where you're -- are you seeing any hesitation there at all? That would be helpful. Thank you.

大家好。謝謝。我只是想回小組一會兒。所以您談到了預訂曲線，我對它的了解有限，但在團體方面，您似乎了解得相當多。因此，如果您可以談談 26 年的情況趨勢，您是否看到任何猶豫？那將會很有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Connor. So again, we're a week into May, but if you look at the forward bookings in the '26 right now, definite change. We're tracking it up about 7% for '26 and reasonably well split between occupancy and average rate, about 4% up in rooms and about 3% up in ADR. So as you heard in Leeny's prepared remarks, right now, we're tracking up 6% for 2025, but up 7% and '26.

是的。謝謝你的提問，康納。再說一次，我們已經進入五月一周了，但如果你現在看看 26 年的預訂情況，肯定會有變化。我們追蹤了 26 年約 7% 的漲幅，入住率和平均房價的分配相當合理，客房數上漲了約 4%，平均房價上漲了約 3%。因此，正如您在 Leeny 的準備好的發言中所聽到的，目前，我們預計 2025 年的成長率為 6%，但 2026 年的成長率為 7%。

And the only thing I'll know, when we talked about our rev card decline coming down overwhelmingly because of government, we did mention that there was ever so slight impact from our expectations on group for the rest of this year.

我唯一知道的是，當我們談到由於政府原因我們的收入卡大幅下降時，我們確實提到，我們對今年剩餘時間集團的預期產生了輕微的影響。

And so if you look at where we were a quarter ago for US group pace, compared to at the end of this quarter, it is ever so slightly down, so just barely down, nowhere near a full percentage point. So again, that was kind of built into our view of this lower revPAR in US and Canada for the back half of the year.

因此，如果你看一下上個季度美國集團的增速，與本季末相比，它略有下降，只是勉強下降，遠沒有下降一個百分點。所以，這在某種程度上也反映了我們對今年下半年美國和加拿大平均可用客房收入較低的看法。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you've talked about stabilization in April and I'm just -- so let's -- I know this is more of a hypothetical, but assuming that a broader market slowdown does occur, like, I mean your portfolio is obviously at a really good spot.

好的。這很有幫助。然後您談到了四月份的穩定，我只是 - 所以 - 我知道這更像是一個假設，但假設更廣泛的市場放緩確實發生，我的意思是您的投資組合顯然處於一個非常好的位置。

You've talked about revPAR holding up better than some of your peers, so I'm just trying to understand your priorities as you look at the portfolio in general, whether it's through M&A conversions or anything like that? Like, are there any areas in which you think you want to strengthen during a potential downturn? Just what where are the priorities are within that list? Thank you.

您曾談到 revPAR 比一些同行表現更好，所以我只是想了解您在審視整個投資組合時的優先事項，是透過併購轉換還是類似的方式？例如，在潛在的經濟衰退期間，您是否認為有哪些領域需要加強？那麼，這個清單中的優先事項到底是什麼？謝謝。

No, I think we want to continue to execute our growth strategy. It's one of both opportunities and challenges of being in nearly 150 countries. We've got very deliberate growth strategies.

不，我認為我們想繼續執行我們的成長策略。這是在近 150 個國家開展業務的機會和挑戰之一。我們有非常周密的成長策略。

We intend to execute those growth strategies throughout the economic cycle. These are long-term assets, and we think about the stewardship and the management of these assets through a long-term lens.

我們打算在整個經濟週期中執行這些成長策略。這些都是長期資產，我們從長遠的角度來考慮這些資產的管理。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯（Patrick Scholes），Truist Securities。

Hi, good morning. Thank you. You just mentioned, the group pays tracking up 6%. I know that Ryman Gaylord had called out an uptick in attrition. Is that similar to what you're seeing for your other brands?

嗨，早安。謝謝。您剛才提到，集團薪酬追蹤上漲6%。我知道萊曼蓋洛德 (Ryman Gaylord) 曾指出人員流失率正在上升。這和您看到的其他品牌的情況類似嗎？

And if so, where would you think that plus 6 actually settles out as far as actual revenue, assuming that there is attrition for your other brands? Thank you.

如果是這樣，假設您的其他品牌流失，您認為 plus 6 的實際收入會是多少？謝謝。

Yeah. I mean, again, it's early, Patrick, but right now, that's not a trend we're seeing across our broader group of state.

是的。我的意思是，帕特里克，現在還為時過早，但就目前而言，這並不是我們在更廣泛的國家群體中看到的趨勢。

Oh, would that be okay, would that be an idiosyncratic issue to just the Ryman brand, because I'm curious? Thank you.

哦，這樣可以嗎？這是否只是 Ryman 品牌的一個特有問題，因為我很好奇？謝謝。

Yeah. I mean, it's a good question for Colin, but obviously, those are big [fee hitters] hotels. They may behave slightly differently than the group portfolio more broadly, but we're just not seeing it in the data at this point.

是的。我的意思是，這對科林來說是個好問題，但顯然，這些都是大型[收費酒店]。它們的行為可能與整體投資組合略有不同，但目前我們還沒有在數據中看到這一點。

Just to give you an example, our group, 70% of our group is 100 people and over. So, there is obviously very wide variations in the types of groups that are being held at our hotels.

舉個例子，我們團裡70%的人都是100人以上。因此，我們酒店接待的團體類型顯然存在很大差異。

But again, broadly speaking, to the extent that we don't have groups end up where we are now at 6%, that is more because it's in the year, for the year booking timing, not because of attrition. As you know, every year as you move through the year, typically your group pace declines as you end up kind of filling in the year for the year, so we don't see that being a result of attrition.

但從廣義上講，如果我們沒有團體遊客人數達到目前的 6% 的水平，那麼這更多的是因為這是在年度預訂時間，而不是因為人員流失。如你所知，每年隨著時間的流逝，你的團隊步伐通常會隨著你一年比一年忙而下降，所以我們不認為這是人員減員的結果。

Got it. Thank you, that makes sense, and I appreciate the color.

知道了。謝謝，這很有道理，而且我很欣賞這種顏色。

Brandt Montour, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布蘭特‧蒙圖爾 (Brandt Montour)。

Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to dig into conversions a little bit. This is a segment that has had some countercyclicality in the past historically, Tony, you've been around this business for a long time and you've seen a couple cycles.

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想稍微深入研究一下轉換。從歷史上看，這個領域在過去曾經具有一些反週期性，托尼，你在這個行業已經很長時間了，你已經看到了幾個週期。

Is the conversation that usually happens around increased conversions with your developers happening, i.e., when things are slowing down, conversions pick up, that's kind of the old adage. Are you starting to have those types of conversations or is it still a little too early for that?

通常與開發人員進行的對話是否與增加轉換有關，即當事情進展緩慢時，轉換就會加快，這是一種古老的格言。您是否已經開始進行此類對話了，還是現在還為時過早？

Yeah, I mean, it's an interesting question. We talked about a lot. I'm actually quite bullish, as you point out, for the bulk of my career in development, you could almost set your watch by the cycles in strong economic environments.

是的，我的意思是，這是一個有趣的問題。我們談了很多。正如您所指出的，我實際上非常樂觀，因為我的大部分職業生涯都致力於發展，您幾乎可以根據強勁的經濟環境的周期來設定您的手錶。

You saw new build activity spike and you saw conversion volume start to recede a bit and then as you started to enter into an area of actual or perceived economic weakness, a new build would start to slow and you'd see a big uptick in conversions.

您會看到新建活動激增，而轉換量開始略有下降，然後當您開始進入實際或感知的經濟疲軟領域時，新建活動將開始放緩，而您將看到轉換量大幅上升。

Eventually, we'll see more and more availability of new construction debt. My expectation, however, is you won't see the same sort of parallel slowdown in conversions.

最終，我們將看到越來越多的新建築債務。然而，我的期望是，你不會看到同樣的轉換並行減速。

Why do I believe that? A few reasons. I think number one. We continue to be at historical level, low levels of incremental new supply growth in the US.

我為什麼相信這一點？有幾個原因。我認為是第一名。美國新增供應量成長仍處於歷史低點。

Number two, while we consider conversions across almost every brand in the portfolio, we have a subset of brands that are really well suited to conversions. You think about our soft brands, you think about Delta, they are really ideal for quick efficient conversions.

第二，雖然我們考慮了投資組合中幾乎所有品牌的轉換率，但我們有一部分品牌非常適合轉換。您可以考慮我們的軟品牌，您可以考慮 Delta，它們對於快速高效的轉換來說確實是理想的選擇。

Number three, Leeny and her team have done a terrific job of populating our development teams with resources who are specifically focused on conversions. And I even know a layer deeper, not just individual asset conversions, but portfolio conversions where we've had a really strong run that I expect to continue.

第三，Leeny 和她的團隊做得非常出色，他們為我們的開發團隊提供了專注於轉換的資源。我甚至了解更深層的情況，不僅是單一資產轉換，還有投資組合轉換，我們在這些方面表現非常強勁，我預計這種表現還會持續下去。

And lastly I would tell you, the nimbleness of the organization and the creativity, not in terms of budging on quality or standards, but the speed with which we are evaluating and executing against conversions. I throw all of that into the blender together and it causes me to be really optimistic about conversion volume being more of a steady state as opposed to a cyclical component of our [log] story.

最後我想告訴你們，組織的靈活性和創造力不體現在品質或標準的變化上，而是體現在我們評估和執行轉換的速度上。我把所有這些都放在一起，這讓我對轉換量更加穩定而不是我們的[日誌]故事的周期性組成部分感到非常樂觀。

Yeah, the only thing I'd add to that is the reality that we are seeing more and more comfort around the world with conversions. This was really a trend that started as you pointed out earlier in economic cycles, really in the US.

是的，我唯一要補充的是，我們看到世界各地對皈依的舒適感越來越強。正如您之前指出的，這確實是始於美國經濟週期的一個趨勢。

And then, with both the addition of brands as well as the realization of the kind of the improved performance on the top and bottom line when hotels join the Bonvoy system, we are seeing just meaningful increases in the percentages of conversions across every continent, and that leads to Tony's confidence around this being more of a continued trend rather than purely part of a cycle.

然後，隨著品牌的增加以及酒店加入 Bonvoy 系統後在頂線和底線業績方面的提升，我們看到各大洲的轉換率都在顯著上升，這使得 Tony 相信這將是一個持續的趨勢，而不是一個週期的純粹一部分。

That's super helpful. Thanks for that. And then just a follow-up question if we could just [hone] on in China development, just hoping for a couple stats.

這非常有幫助。謝謝。然後還有一個後續問題，我們是否可以進一步了解中國的發展情況，希望能得到一些統計數據。

The percentage of pipeline that's China, the percentage of pipeline under construction of your pipeline under construction, that's China, and then just sort of, the stats, sorry, the starts in the quarter, how that if that grew year over year, quarter to quarter or however you can show it?

中國的管道百分比，在建管道百分比，也就是中國的在建管道百分比，然後就是統計數據，抱歉，是本季度的開工數據，如果同比增長、季度環比增長，或者您能以任何方式展示它，情況如何？

Sure, so from the perspective of Greater China, it's currently 10% of our existing rooms and 18% of our pipeline. We had another spectacular quarter of signings in Greater China, another big increase over last year which was already, really outstanding quarter a year ago.

當然，從大中華區的角度來看，目前它占我們現有客房的 10%，占我們計劃開業客房的 18%。我們在大中華區又迎來了一個輝煌的季度，與去年相比又有大幅增長，而去年一個季度的簽約量已經非常出色了。

As we've talked about before, there too, we are broadening our range across segments. And in China, there's been terrific interest in particular, in our select service grants.

正如我們之前談到的，我們也正在擴大各個領域的範圍。在中國，人們對我們的精選服務補助金尤其感興趣。

And that when you look at owners wanting to think about diversifying their risk across tiers and across cities and frankly across, kind of per-hotel dollars that they or RMB that they need to put to work, select service, has been a great place for them to disproportionately add investment. So we're very pleased with what we see there and again, expect for that to continue.

當你看到業主想要分散他們在各個層級、各個城市的風險，坦白說，他們需要在每家酒店投入的美元或人民幣上選擇服務時，這對他們來說是一個增加投資的好地方。因此，我們對在那裡看到的情況感到非常高興，並希望這種情況能繼續下去。

When you think about under construction, remember that China has an interesting kind of mix of not only just being classic new build and also classic complete conversion from an existing hotel, but they also have a fairly sizable category of adaptive reuse where a building has not -- the building's use has not been entirely determined but built about halfway or 2/3 before the owner makes a decision about exactly what the function of the building is going to be.

當您考慮在建項目時，請記住，中國不僅有經典的新建項目，也有經典的現有酒店完全改建項目，而且還有相當大的適應性再利用類別，即建築物尚未完全確定其用途，而是在建成約一半或三分之二後，業主才決定該建築物的具體功能。

So while conversions in the entire company typically are only in the pipeline for maybe a year, these adaptive reuse ones which are a good chunk of our signings can be closer to 18 to 22 months that are in our pipeline, but again, just as valuable room additions as any other.

因此，雖然整個公司的轉換通常只需要等待一年左右的時間，但這些適應性再利用的項目（占我們簽約項目的很大一部分）可能已經等待了接近 18 到 22 個月的時間，但同樣，它們的房間增建價值與其他任何增建項目一樣高。

Excellent. Thanks, everybody.

出色的。謝謝大家。

Duane Pfenningwerth, Evercore ISI.

杜安‧芬寧沃斯 (Duane Pfenningwerth)，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. On your segmentation commentary which I thought was helpful, group leading followed by BT, followed by leisure, a big if here, but if the trade overhang moderates and if the clouds begin to part, what segment do you feel like has the most potential energy, or said differently the biggest chance for re-acceleration this year?

嘿，謝謝。早安.我認為您對細分市場的評論很有幫助，集團領先，其次是 BT，然後是休閒，這是一個很大的如果，但如果貿易緊張局勢緩和，如果陰雲開始散去，您覺得哪個細分市場具有最大的潛在能量，或者換句話說，今年重新加速的機會最大？

Yeah, I mean, so much of this is driven by consumer confidence. So to the extent that the clouds part in the way that you describe, you'd think that would drive consumer confidence, which historically has driven an uptick in leisure demand, and I think similarly.

是的，我的意思是，這很大程度上是由消費者信心所推動的。因此，如果雲層像您描述的那樣散開，您會認為這會推動消費者信心，而從歷史上看，消費者信心會推動休閒需求的上升，我的看法也類似。

You hear most business leaders across sectors talking about the challenges of forward planning given uncertainty to the extent some of that uncertainty starts to evaporate, that could similarly provide some upside and confidence in BT. And I hope you are a fortune teller, but to the extent that happens, that would be our expectation.

您會聽到各行業的大多數商業領袖談論在存在不確定性的情況下進行前瞻性規劃所面臨的挑戰，而當部分不確定性開始消失時，這同樣可以為 BT 帶來一些好處和信心。我希望你是一位算命先生，但如果真的如此，那也只是我們的期望。

Big if, admittedly, but just for my follow up, wanted to ask you about the concept of trade down, high-end chain scale out performance continues to be just remarkably sticky. Are you surprised at all we're not seeing trade down? And how do you think about this cycle differently than past cycles? Thanks for taking the questions.

誠然，如果很大，但只是為了我的後續問題，想問你關於交易下降的概念，高端鏈擴展性能仍然非常粘稠。我們沒有看到貿易下滑，你感到驚訝嗎？您認為本次週期與以往週期有何不同？感謝您回答這些問題。

Yeah, sure, absolutely. So one of the things that I've been studying is just looking at kind of changes in demographics. So just to give you a perspective, in 2004, 22% of the US population was 55 and over, that's now 30%.

是的，當然，絕對是。所以我一直在研究的事情之一就是觀察人口結構的變化。舉個例子，2004 年，美國 55 歲以上人口占總人口的 22%，而現在這一比例上升到了 30%。

And when you think about total US household net worth of being a view of it's in the ballpark of 107 trillion, that is going from 61% being 55 and over in kind of that percentage of household network held in that age group that's gone up to 73%.

當您考慮到美國家庭淨資產總額約為 107 兆美元時，55 歲及以上年齡層的家庭淨資產佔比已從 61% 上升至 73%。

So I do think the reality of some of these demographics and desire for travel is helping to add a base of demand that is perhaps a bit different than in prior recessions.

因此，我確實認為，這些人口統計和旅行願望的現實有助於增加需求基礎，這可能與先前的經濟衰退有所不同。

Now again, all this depends on the severity of the recession. If it occurs, currently you're looking at GDP growth in the US. Let's call it in the ballpark of 1.5%. And from that standpoint, we haven't seen the trade down as you described, so we'll need to see where the economy goes.

現在，這一切都取決於經濟衰退的嚴重程度。如果發生這種情況，那麼目前您正在關注的是美國 GDP 成長。我們姑且假設其為 1.5% 左右。從這個角度來看，我們並沒有看到您所描述的貿易下滑，所以我們需要看看經濟會走向何方。

And Duane, just to underscore that with some Q1 statistics that really, I think illustrate some of the demographic trends that that Leeny's watching in Q1 globally, the luxury tier had the strongest occupancy growth of any tier where we operate.

杜安，我想強調的是，第一季的一些統計數據確實能夠說明 Leeny 觀察到的全球第一季度的一些人口趨勢，豪華酒店的入住率增長是我們運營的所有酒店級別中最高的。

Similarly, the luxury tier had the strongest percentage ADR growth of any tier where we operate. And we're really not seeing trade down at least through the first quarter of the year.

同樣，在我們經營的所有層級中，豪華層的 ADR 百分比成長最為強勁。至少在今年第一季，我們確實沒有看到貿易下滑。

And again, I'll play a little cheerleader here. Luxury makes up 10% of our existing rooms, certainly the leader there, and then we also have almost 10% in our pipeline, our luxury hotels around the world. So a strong, continually growing range of great experiences for our Bonvoy members to have.

再次，我將在這裡扮演一個小啦啦隊長。豪華酒店占我們現有客房總數的 10%，無疑是該領域的領先者，此外，我們在全球的豪華酒店籌備中還擁有近 10% 的客房。因此，我們的 Bonvoy 會員將享受到豐富多彩、持續增長的精彩體驗。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

瑞銀的羅賓法利。

Great. Thank you. Just trying to think about the change in rooms under construction year over year.

偉大的。謝謝。只是想想每年在建房間的數量有何變化。

And you mentioned in the release that you're kind of defining it a little bit differently with the conversion rooms in there. Is there a way to think about rooms under construction either, without conversions in either period or counting conversions like, all conversions just try to think about a comparable metric year every year to think about rooms under construction?

您在新聞稿中提到，您對其中的轉換室的定義有點不同。有沒有辦法考慮在建房間，既不考慮任何時期的轉換，也不計算轉換，就像所有轉換一樣，每年都嘗試考慮一個可比較的指標年份來考慮在建房間？

Yeah. No, I think we again define it that way, which makes sense because you really think about what under construction means, which are the ones that you expect to actually open fairly soon. So, we think that makes the most sense.

是的。不，我認為我們再次這樣定義它，這是有道理的，因為你真的會思考「正在建設中」是什麼意思，哪些是你預計很快就會真正開放的。所以，我們認為這是最有意義的。

Okay, thanks. And then maybe just on that, the IMF fees, it sounds like no change in your expectation for US and Canada fee payers. Can you just kind of unpack for us a little bit sometimes you've shared metrics about kind of what percent of hotels in the US are fee paying and kind of how you know how that may have changed your view?

好的，謝謝。那麼也許就國際貨幣基金組織的費用而言，聽起來您對美國和加拿大費用支付者的期望沒有改變。您能否為我們稍微解釋一下，有時您會分享一些指標，例如美國有多少百分比的酒店是收費的，以及您如何知道這可能會改變您的觀點？

I don't know if higher wage costs are impacting the US businesses. It sounds like there was no change in your expectation for those fees, but just a little color behind that? Thank you.

我不知道更高的工資成本是否對美國企業產生影響。聽起來您對這些費用的預期沒有變化，但背後卻有一點變化？謝謝。

Sure. Yes, in Q1, 60% of our hotels worldwide, we're paying incentive fees that compares to 61% a year ago. However, to your point, in the US and Canada, it's 21% in the first quarter of '25 as compared to 20% a year ago.

當然。是的，在第一季度，我們向全球 60% 的飯店支付了獎勵費，而一年前這一比例為 61%。然而，正如您所說，在美國和加拿大，25 年第一季的失業率為 21%，而去年同期為 20%。

So it's actually ever so slightly higher and that's in the full service space, actually both full service and limited service, they went up a percentage point compared to a year ago, internationally, broadly speaking, it ranges, but in Asia, it's probably towards the low 80%, earning incentive fees, maybe a little bit lower in the rest of the world because some of those hotels do have owners priority constructs in their contracts.

因此，實際上，在提供全方位服務的領域，無論是提供全方位服務的還是提供有限服務的，與一年前相比，它們都上升了一個百分點，從國際上來看，大致如此，但在亞洲，可能處於 80% 以下，賺取獎勵費用，在世界其他地區可能略低一些，因為其中一些酒店在合同中確實有業主優先權條款。

I'd say internationally, roughly speaking, it's a 75% of kind of for the entire international portfolio while in the US, as I mentioned, it's 21%.

我想說，從國際上看，粗略地說，這佔整個國際投資組合的 75%，而在美國，正如我所提到的，這一比例為 21%。

Okay, and I guess with the strength and luxury and full service that's actually where most of your fees would be coming from and that's the part that's holding up it sounds like?

好的，我想，實力、豪華和全套服務實際上是您的大部分費用的來源，聽起來這似乎是阻礙您的部分？

Actually, I mean fees coming strongly both from premium and luxury.

實際上，我的意思是來自高端和奢侈品的費用都在大幅增加。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thanks, Robin.

謝謝，羅賓。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的莉齊‧多夫 (Lizzie Dove)。

Hi there, thanks for taking the question. You've been undergoing your digital transformation strategy the past couple of years. Curious if we could just get like a status update there where you're at with the roll out when that might start to kind of hit and how meaningful those benefits can be.

您好，感謝您提出這個問題。過去幾年，你們一直在實施數位轉型策略。我很好奇，我們是否可以了解您的最新情況，了解這項服務的推出時間以及何時它會開始產生影響，以及這些好處有多大意義。

Yeah, of course. So we are making terrific progress led by Drew Pinto and his team. We are deep in testing as we speak.

是的，當然。在德魯·平托 (Drew Pinto) 和他的團隊的帶領下，我們取得了巨大的進步。我們正在深入測試。

We expect to start rolling out to some of our select brand hotels in the back half of this year and are really bullish as we've talked about in the prepared remarks about the impact we expect this is going to have on almost every facet of our business.

我們預計將在今年下半年開始向部分精選品牌酒店推出這項服務，並且正如我們在準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，我們非常看好這項服務將對我們業務的幾乎每個方面產生的影響。

We -- I think. I was down in Nashville a week ago with 5,000 of our select brand GMs. And it was the first time the team really let them touch and feel some prototypes of what these systems are going to look like.

我們——我認為。一週前，我和 5,000 名精選品牌總經理一起來到納許維爾。這是團隊第一次真正讓他們觸摸和感受這些系統的一些原型。

The enthusiasm was extraordinary, enthusiasm about the efficiency it'll bring to their operations, enthusiasm about the advantages it will create in their ability to recruit, especially next-gen talent, and enthusiasm about in the premium and luxury tiers, the opportunities that the new re-system will create to merchandise the breadth of services and products that our Bonvoy members wanted to purchase from us. So both speed is the short answer.

人們的熱情非同尋常，他們熱衷於它將為他們的營運帶來的效率，熱衷於它將在招募能力方面創造的優勢，特別是下一代人才，熱衷於高端和豪華層面，熱衷於新系統將創造的機會，以推銷我們的 Bonvoy 會員想要從我們這裡購買的廣泛服務和產品。因此，兩種速度都是簡短的答案。

Great. And then just to switch gears for a second on the non-rev pass side, obviously, you've mentioned in the past, there's a little bit of pressure there this year, mainly from the kind of timing of the residential side, maybe too early to ask, but are you expecting that to rebound in 2026 to some degree?

偉大的。然後，讓我們暫時換個話題，談談非轉速通行證方面，顯然，您之前提到過，今年這方面有一點壓力，主要是來自住宅方面的時機問題，現在問這個問題可能還為時過早，但您是否預計到 2026 年這種情況會有所反彈？

Yes, absolutely. It's one of the things that Jackie and Pilar can take you through. That business is growing incredibly well, very pleased with the continued growth in signings that we have in residential around the world, but they are lumpy.

是的，絕對是。這是 Jackie 和 Pilar 可以帶您完成的事情之一。這項業務發展得非常好，我們對全球住宅簽約量的持續成長感到非常高興，但成長幅度並不大。

And as you saw in Q1, we had a couple developments that closed in the quarter and you have a bit of a waterfall of the fees and then it depends on when the next under construction residential project is completed.

正如您在第一季看到的，我們在本季度完成了幾個開發項目，費用呈現瀑布式增長，然後取決於下一個在建住宅項目的完工時間。

And so, yes, you absolutely should expect to see that number over time go up. We talked about this year, just given the kind of the way that the projects are closing, that we expect that number to be down almost $40 million compared to a year ago, but again broadly, over time, absolutely growing.

所以，是的，你絕對應該期待看到這個數字隨著時間的推移而上升。我們談到了今年，考慮到專案結束的方式，我們預計這個數字與一年前相比將下降近 4000 萬美元，但總體而言，隨著時間的推移，絕對會增長。

Great thank you.

非常感謝。

Thank you and ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions this morning. At this time, I'll turn things back over to Tony for any closing comments.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們，今天早上我們的提問時間就到這裡。現在，我將把話題交還給托尼，請他發表最後的評論。

Great. Well, as always, thank you for your continued interest in Marriott. Thanks for a great set of questions this morning and notwithstanding Leeny's comments about a short booking window, marriott.com, start booking Memorial Day and your summer travel, and we look forward to welcoming you around the world. Have a great day.

偉大的。好吧，一如既往，感謝您對萬豪的持續關注。感謝您今天早上提出的一系列精彩問題，儘管 Leeny 表示預訂窗口期很短，但 marriott.com 還是開始預訂陣亡將士紀念日和夏季旅行吧，我們期待在世界各地歡迎您。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. Again, ladies and gentlemen, I will conclude the Marriott International first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Again, thanks so much for joining us, everyone. And we wish you all a great day. Goodbye.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，我再次結束萬豪國際 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。再次感謝大家的參與。我們祝福大家有個愉快的一天。再見。