洛克希德·馬丁 (LMT) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Lockheed Martin Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Results Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，並歡迎參加洛克希德馬丁公司 2017 年第三季獲利結果電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Greg Gardner, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Greg Gardner 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, John, and good morning.

謝謝你，約翰，早安。

I'd like to welcome everyone to our third quarter 2017 earnings conference call.

我謹歡迎大家參加我們的 2017 年第三季財報電話會議。

Joining me today on the call are Marillyn Hewson, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bruce Tanner, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長瑪麗蓮‧休森 (Marillyn Hewson)；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Bruce Tanner。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical fact are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law.

今天的電話會議中所做的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並且是根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出的。

Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。

Please see today's press release and our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.

請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中的結果有重大差異的一些因素的描述。

We have posted charts on our website today that we plan to address during the call to supplement our comments.

我們今天在網站上發布了圖表，我們計劃在電話會議中討論這些圖表，以補充我們的評論。

Please access our website at www.lockheedmartin.com, and click on the Investor Relations link to view and follow the charts.

請造訪我們的網站 www.lockheedmartin.com，然後點擊投資者關係連結查看並關注圖表。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Marillyn.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給瑪麗蓮。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today as we review our third quarter results and key accomplishments.

大家早安，感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議，我們回顧了第三季的業績和主要成就。

Before I begin, I'd like to take a moment to express my sincere sympathies to those across our nation affected by the recent hurricane and wildfire disasters.

在開始之前，我想花一點時間向全國各地遭受最近颶風和野火災害影響的人們表示誠摯的同情。

The devastation endured by these communities is heartbreaking, and the recovery process is just beginning.

這些社區所遭受的破壞令人心碎，而復原過程才剛開始。

I'm especially proud of the generosity shown by the men and women of Lockheed Martin in providing donations through our partnership with the American Red Cross in support of the ongoing relief efforts.

我對洛克希德馬丁公司的員工所表現出的慷慨感到特別自豪，他們透過與美國紅十字會的合作提供捐款，支持正在進行的救援工作。

Additionally, we deployed our new LM-100J commercial freighter to Puerto Rico to deliver over 78,000 pounds of supplies.

此外，我們還向波多黎各部署了新型 LM-100J 商業貨機，以運送超過 78,000 磅的物資。

The rebuilding of these areas will take time, but we would like the citizens affected by these disasters to know that we -- that they are in our thoughts.

這些地區的重建需要時間，但我們希望受這些災難影響的公民知道我們關心他們。

Moving on to our earnings discussion.

繼續我們的收益討論。

As today's release outlined, we had solid results this quarter, and I'd like to thank the Lockheed Martin team for their continued dedication and performance.

正如今天的新聞稿所述，我們本季度取得了堅實的業績，我要感謝洛克希德馬丁團隊的持續奉獻和表現。

We operate in a dynamic environment, and it is through their efforts that we are able to deliver critical solutions to -- in support of our customers' missions and position our company for long-term growth.

我們在一個充滿活力的環境中運營，正是透過他們的努力，我們才能夠提供關鍵的解決方案——支持我們客戶的使命，並使我們公司實現長期成長。

I'm pleased that our year-to-date financial performance has enabled us to increase our full year 2017 guidance for sales, operating profit, earnings per share and cash from operations.

我很高興我們今年迄今的財務業績使我們能夠提高 2017 年全年銷售額、營業利潤、每股收益和營運現金的指導。

We will discuss cash in greater depth later in the call, but I would like to highlight our recent strong performance in this area as we generated $1.8 billion in cash from operations this quarter and $5 billion year-to-date.

我們將在稍後的電話會議中更深入地討論現金問題，但我想強調我們最近在這一領域的強勁表現，本季度我們從營運中產生了18 億美元的現金，今年迄今已產生50億美元的現金。

This performance in driving cash has allowed us to raise our 2017 outlook for the second time this year and we are now -- we now expect to have cash from operations of greater than or equal to $6.2 billion in 2017.

這種推動現金成長的表現使我們今年第二次提高了 2017 年的預期，我們現在預計 2017 年的營運現金將超過或等於 62 億美元。

In another key financial metric, I'm particularly proud to see that the corporation achieved a record backlog this quarter totaling nearly $104 billion, reflecting the strength of our broad portfolio.

在另一個關鍵財務指標中，我特別自豪地看到該公司本季的積壓訂單達到創紀錄水平，總額接近 1,040 億美元，反映了我們廣泛投資組合的實力。

This strength in growing backlog and cash generation allowed our Board of Directors to approve 2 important cash deployment actions in September.

積壓訂單和現金產生不斷增長的優勢使我們的董事會在 9 月批准了兩項重要的現金部署行動。

First, we increased the quarterly dividend 10% to $2 per share or $8 annually.

首先，我們將季度股息提高 10% 至每股 2 美元或每年 8 美元。

Second, we increased the share repurchase authority by $2 billion, bringing our total to $4 billion.

其次，我們將股票回購權增加了 20 億美元，使回購總額達到 40 億美元。

This level provides additional flexibility to make future share repurchases if market conditions and our fiduciary duties permit.

如果市場條件和我們的信託責任允許，這個水準為未來的股票回購提供了額外的彈性。

Together, these 2 actions demonstrate our continued strategy of balanced cash deployment and long-term commitment to delivering returns for our stockholders.

這兩項行動共同體現了我們平衡現金部署的持續策略以及為股東帶來回報的長期承諾。

Bruce will cover the financial results in detail a little later.

布魯斯稍後將詳細介紹財務業績。

I'd like to take a moment to provide a bit more color on some of our new business pursuits and the opportunities they present, including recent Foreign Military Sales or FMS notifications.

我想花點時間對我們的一些新業務追求及其帶來的機會進行更多介紹，包括最近的對外軍售或 FMS 通知。

In July, I discussed the F-35 LRIP 11 award we received for U.S. jets just after the close of the second quarter valued at approximately $5.6 billion and the expectation that we would add an additional order to that lot for international aircraft.

7 月份，我討論了我們在第二季結束後獲得的價值約 56 億美元的美國噴射機 F-35 LRIP 11 訂單，以及我們將在該批國際飛機上增加額外訂單的預期。

We did indeed receive an undefinitized contract for nearly $3.7 billion, bringing our total third quarter 17 LRIP 11 orders to over $9 billion with 141 aircraft to be delivered in this batch.

我們確實收到了一份價值近 37 億美元的未確定合同，使我們第三季度的 17 架 LRIP 11 訂單總額超過 90 億美元，這批飛機將交付 141 架。

Keeping with the Aeronautics business area, our team received 2 notifications from the State Department approving the sale of F-16 upgrades and new aircraft to the government of Bahrain.

與航空業務領域保持一致，我們的團隊收到了 2 份來自國務院的通知，批准向巴林政府出售 F-16 升級版和新飛機。

In the first notification, Bahrain's current fleet of 20 F-16s will be upgraded to the new Viper configuration with an estimated value for this engineering work of over $1 billion.

在第一份通知中，巴林現有的 20 架 F-16 機隊將升級為新的 Viper 配置，這項工程工作的估計價值超過 10 億美元。

In a separate announcement, the State Department also approved the sale of 19 new production F-16 Viper aircraft to Bahrain worth approximately $2.8 billion.

在另一份聲明中，美國國務院還批准向巴林出售 19 架新生產的 F-16 Viper 飛機，價值約 28 億美元。

Once congressional approval is obtained and the related contracts are executed, we will extend F-16 production beyond the 2021 time frame.

一旦獲得國會批准並執行相關合同，我們將把F-16的生產延長到2021年後。

These 2 requests are indications of the continued demand for this legendary fighter aircraft, and we are eager to complete the FMS process and deliver these capabilities to this longtime customer.

這兩項請求表明了對這款傳奇戰鬥機的持續需求，我們渴望完成 FMS 流程並向這位長期客戶提供這些功能。

Moving to our Missiles and Fire Control business area, since the announcements in May by President Trump and King Salman of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and subsequent to the close of our third quarter, the State Department approved the sale of $15 billion worth of FAAD missile [deployment] completion of the same congressional approval process as our F-16 notifications.

轉向我們的飛彈和火控業務領域，自從川普總統和沙烏地阿拉伯王國薩勒曼國王 5 月宣布以來，以及第三季結束後，國務院批准出售價值 150 億美元的 FAAD 飛彈[部署] 完成與我們的F-16 通知相同的國會批准程序。

We believe this is a strong indication of our portfolio's broad demand and long-term growth potential.

我們相信，這有力地表明了我們的投資組合的廣泛需求和長期成長潛力。

We look forward to working with our U.S. and Saudi customers to finalize this opportunity and to deliver this important capability to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

我們期待與美國和沙烏地阿拉伯客戶合作，最終實現這一機會，並向沙烏地阿拉伯王國提供這項重要的能力。

In another new business opportunity in Missiles and Fire Control, we were delighted to be chosen to participate in a Long-Range Standoff or LRSO missile program.

在飛彈和火控領域的另一個新商機中，我們很高興被選中參與遠程防區外或 LRSO 飛彈計劃。

LRSO will be the next-generation cruise missile for the air-launched portion of the nuclear triad.

LRSO 將成為三位一體核武力量空射部分的下一代巡航飛彈。

This $900 million technical maturity and risk reduction contract will allow us to develop and refine advanced technologies in support of the final engineering, manufacturing and development competition, which will take place in about 3 years.

這份價值 9 億美元的技術成熟度和風險降低合約將使我們能夠開發和完善先進技術，以支持最終的工程、製造和開發競賽，該競賽將在大約 3 年內舉行。

We look forward to performing on this strategic program and to providing this long-range deterrence capability for our nation and allies.

我們期待執行這項戰略計劃，並為我們的國家和盟國提供這種遠端威懾能力。

Lastly, we were pleased to be selected as the prime contractor for the U.S. Special Operations Command's next-generation Global Logistics Support Services sustainment program.

最後，我們很高興被選為美國特種作戰司令部下一代全球後勤支援服務保障計畫的主承包商。

After over 7 years of successfully performing for this customer, it was an honor to be selected in this competition to continue to support this critical mission.

在為該客戶成功執行了 7 年多之後，我們很榮幸能夠參加本次比賽，並繼續支持這項關鍵任務。

This 10-year indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity, or IDIQ contract, has the potential to grow to $8 billion in orders, which would represent an increase of $3 billion from the ceiling value of our incumbent special operations logistics program.

這份為期 10 年的無限期交付/無限數量（IDIQ 合約）的訂單量有可能增長到 80 億美元，這意味著我們現有特種作戰物流計劃的上限價值將增加 30 億美元。

Turning briefly to budgets.

簡單談談預算。

The federal government is currently operating under a continuing resolution for fiscal year 2018 that limits the Department of Defense expenditures to previous fiscal year levels through December 8. With a large portion of our backlog work already funded from prior fiscal years, we do not expect significant impacts to our 2017 financials for this current short-term CR.

聯邦政府目前正在根據2018 財年的一項持續決議進行運作，該決議將截至12 月8 日的國防部支出限制在上一財年的水平。由於我們的大部分積壓工作已經由上一財年提供資金，因此我們預計不會出現重大支出。當前短期 CR 對我們 2017 年財務狀況的影響。

Should the continuing resolution and its associated budget constraints be extended beyond December 8, we would anticipate some level of impact against our 2018 orders profile and corresponding backlog level with the potential of other impacts depending on the duration of the CR.

如果持續解決方案及其相關預算限制延長至 12 月 8 日之後，我們預計會對 2018 年訂單狀況和相應的積壓水準產生一定程度的影響，並可能產生其他影響，具體取決於 CR 的持續時間。

We are encouraged though that both the House and Senate have passed their versions of the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act bill each by wide margins and a broad show of support.

不過，令我們感到鼓舞的是，眾議院和參議院都以大幅優勢通過了各自版本的 2018 年國防授權法案，並得到了廣泛的支持。

The House is recommending a base defense budget of approximately $593 billion, with the Senate putting forth a target of about $611 billion, and these 2 positions must now be reconciled in conference.

眾議院建議約 5,930 億美元的基礎國防預算，參議院提出約 6,110 億美元的目標，現在必須在會議上協調這兩個立場。

Each of these budget proposals reflect significant increases over both President Trump's $575 billion request and fiscal year 2017 enacted amounts.

每項預算提案均較川普總統提出的 5,750 億美元要求和 2017 財年頒布的金額大幅增加。

It remains to be seen which measures will be adopted in the final National Defense Authorization Act and what levels of funding will be provided in the separate appropriations process.

最終的《國防授權法》將採取哪些措施，以及單獨撥款過程中將提供什麼水準的資金，還有待觀察。

However, these amounts exceed the current budget caps, and legislation is still needed to adjust the spending limits imposed by the Budget Control Act.

然而，這些金額超出了目前的預算上限，仍然需要立法來調整《預算控制法》規定的支出限額。

Passage of this legislation will require bipartisan support.

這項立法的通過需要兩黨的支持。

We continue to urge our lawmakers to work towards an agreement which modifies the budget caps, provides the defense funding required to capitalize our military assets and delivers to our military the resources vital to our nation's security.

我們繼續敦促我們的立法者努力達成協議，修改預算上限，提供利用我們的軍事資產所需的國防資金，並向我們的軍隊提供對我們國家安全至關重要的資源。

Moving on, I would like to highlight several operational milestones we achieved across the corporation during the third quarter.

接下來，我想強調我們在第三季在整個公司實現的幾個營運里程碑。

Beginning with an update on our F-35 program, this quarter, we successfully surpassed the 100,000 flight hour threshold, exhibiting a significant level of maturity for the aircraft and its flight sciences and mission systems capability with 98% of our flight testing completed.

從本季更新我們的 F-35 專案開始，我們成功突破了 100,000 飛行小時的門檻，展示了飛機及其飛行科學和任務系統能力的高度成熟，我們的飛行測試已完成 98%。

We remain on track to complete all of the system development and demonstration flight testing in the next few months.

我們仍有望在未來幾個月內完成所有系統開發和展示飛行測試。

To date, we have delivered over 250 jets since the beginning of the program, and we are thrilled with its performance.

自從該計劃啟動以來，迄今為止，我們已交付超過 250 架飛機，我們對其性能感到非常興奮。

In addition, recent test achievements have included completion of edge-of-the-envelope maneuvers for the F-35A variant, stressing the limits of the aircraft's structural strength and aerodynamics.

此外，最近的測試成果包括完成 F-35A 變型的極限機動，強調了飛機結構強度和空氣動力學的極限。

Another achievement was the successful completion of offensive counter air and anti-surface warfare test, demonstrating the performance of the F-35 system as well as 42 of planned 43 weapons accuracy tests with the final test planned for the next several months.

另一項成就是成功完成進攻性反空和反水面戰測試，展示了 F-35 系統的性能以及計劃進行的 43 項武器精度測試中的 42 項，最終測試計劃在未來幾個月內進行。

We believe we are well positioned to complete all remaining development milestones as we progress to complete Block 3F capability.

我們相信，隨著我們逐步完成 Block 3F 功能，我們已做好充分準備來完成所有剩餘的開發里程碑。

In our Rotary and Mission Systems business area, we were awarded our first Low Rate Initial Production, or LRIP contract, for 2 Sikorsky CH-53K King Stallion helicopters following our successful Milestone C decision in April.

在我們的旋轉和任務系統業務領域，繼 4 月份成功做出 Milestone C 決定後，我們獲得了第一份低速初始生產 (LRIP) 合同，購買 2 架西科斯基 CH-53K King Stallion 直升機。

With this award, we began production of the most powerful helicopter ever builded.

憑藉這項獎項，我們開始生產有史以來最強大的直升機。

We will deliver these LRIP 1 helicopters to our U.S. Marine Corps customer in 2020 in support of the Department of Defense's 200 aircraft plan of record objective.

我們將於 2020 年向美國海軍陸戰隊客戶交付這些 LRIP 1 直升機，以支援國防部的 200 架飛機計畫的記錄目標。

We are excited to be able to bring the incredible capabilities of this remarkable product to our war fighters as well as to humanitarian or disaster relief missions for those in need.

我們很高興能夠將這款卓越產品的令人難以置信的功能帶給我們的戰士以及為有需要的人執行人道主義或救災任務。

Another area where we had a significant accomplishment this quarter was on the Orion program.

本季我們取得重大成就的另一個領域是獵戶座計畫。

Lockheed Martin and NASA engineers at the Kennedy Space Center powered up the next Orion crew module for the first time, initiating the vehicle management systems and power and data units, the brains and heart of the capsule.

洛克希德·馬丁公司和美國宇航局肯尼迪航天中心的工程師首次為下一個獵戶座乘員艙提供動力，啟動車輛管理系統以及電源和數據單元，即太空艙的大腦和心臟。

This spacecraft will embark upon a flight that will take it over 40,000 miles beyond the Moon, making this exploration mission a crucial milestone for our test campaign.

這艘太空船將開始一次飛行，飛越月球 40,000 多英里，使這次探索任務成為我們測試活動的一個重要里程碑。

We are honored to be building the Orion deep space exploration vehicle, which will take American astronauts back to the Moon and eventually Mars.

我們很榮幸能夠建造獵戶座深空偵測飛行器，它將帶美國太空人返回月球，並最終返回火星。

I'll now turn the call over to Bruce to review our third quarter financial performance in more detail, and then we'll open up the line for your questions.

我現在將把電話轉給布魯斯，更詳細地審查我們第三季的財務業績，然後我們將開通電話回答您的問題。

Thanks, Marillyn.

謝謝，瑪麗蓮。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

I'll be making remarks based on the web charts that we included with our earnings release today.

我將根據我們今天的收益發布中包含的網路圖表發表評​​論。

Let's begin with Chart 3 and an overview of our results.

讓我們從圖 3 開始並概述我們的結果。

We're pleased with our performance in the quarter.

我們對本季的表現感到滿意。

Sales of $12.2 billion and segment operating profit of $1.2 billion were slightly lower than our expectations, but we expect this timing-related shortfall will be more than made up for during the fourth quarter as we will discuss later.

122 億美元的銷售額和 12 億美元的部門營業利潤略低於我們的預期，但我們預計這一與時間相關的缺口將在第四季度得到彌補，我們將在稍後討論。

Our earnings per share of $3.24 were in line with our expectations even with the lower sales and profit levels and were aided by the favorable resolution of several contractual matters that improved our unallocated expense amounts.

即使銷售額和利潤水平較低，我們的每股收益仍達到 3.24 美元，符合我們的預期，並且得益於幾項合約問題的順利解決，改善了我們的未分配費用金額。

Cash from operations was very strong at $1.8 billion for the quarter, and we continued to return a significant amount of that cash to our stockholders with $1 billion returned in the quarter.

本季來自營運的現金非常強勁，達到 18 億美元，我們繼續向股東返還大量現金，本季返還了 10 億美元。

In addition, and as expected, we had a very strong quarter capturing new business, achieving a record backlog level of $104 billion.

此外，正如預期的那樣，我們在本季度獲得了非常強勁的新業務，積壓訂單達到創紀錄的 1,040 億美元。

We are increasing our outlook for sales, operating profit, earnings per share and cash [from] operations, reflecting our growing confidence as we progress through this year.

我們正在提高對銷售、營業利潤、每股收益和營運現金的預期，這反映出我們對今年的進展信心不斷增強。

So I'd characterize the quarter as one with solid performance and improving prospects for the rest of the year and beyond.

因此，我認為本季業績穩健，今年剩餘時間及以後的前景不斷改善。

On Chart 4, we compare our sales and segment operating profit in the third quarter of this year with last year's results.

在圖4中，我們將今年第三季的銷售額和部門營業利潤與去年的結果進行了比較。

Sales grew 5% compared with last year to $12.2 billion, with most of that growth coming in the Aeronautics business area, which grew 14% in the quarter driven by F-35 volume.

銷售額較去年增長 5%，達到 122 億美元，其中大部分增長來自航空業務領域，在 F-35 銷量的推動下，該領域本季度增長了 14%。

Segment operating profit was slightly lower this year after adjusting for the large gain we recognized last year when we obtained a controlling interest in the Atomic Weapons Establishment joint venture in the U.K. And as I said on the prior chart, we are increasing our full year outlook for both sales and segment operating profit.

在對去年我們獲得英國原子武器建立合資企業的控股權時確認的巨額收益進行調整後，今年的部門營業利潤略有下降。正如我在上一張圖表中所說，我們正在提高全年展望銷售額和部門營業利潤。

Turning to Chart 5, we'll discuss our earnings per share in the quarter.

轉向圖 5，我們將討論本季的每股盈餘。

EPS from continuing operations of $3.24 was lower than last year's amount.

持續經營業務的每股收益為 3.24 美元，低於去年的水平。

But after adjusting for the AWE gain that we recognized last year, our EPS was relatively flat.

但在對我們去年確認的 AWE 收益進行調整後，我們的每股盈餘相對持平。

On Chart 6, we'll compare our cash from operations this quarter versus our results from 2016.

在圖 6 中，我們將本季的營運現金與 2016 年的業績進行比較。

We generated nearly $1.8 billion of cash in the quarter, almost 1/3 more than we did in the third quarter of last year.

本季我們創造了近 18 億美元的現金，幾乎比去年第三季增加了 1/3。

On a year-to-date basis, we have generated almost $5 billion in cash from operations, well on our way to achieving our increased outlook for the year.

今年迄今，我們已從營運中產生了近 50 億美元的現金，預計將實現今年的預期成長。

Chart 7 shows the cash returned to stockholders through the third quarter.

圖 7 顯示了第三季返還給股東的現金。

After deducting year-to-date capital expenditures from cash from operations, our free cash flow is almost $4.3 billion through the first 3 quarters.

從營運現金中扣除年初至今的資本支出後，前三個季度我們的自由現金流接近 43 億美元。

And we returned about $3.1 billion in cash to stockholders or 72% of free cash flow, fairly evenly divided between dividends and share repurchases.

我們向股東返還了約 31 億美元現金，即自由現金流的 72%，其中股利和股票回購的比例相當平均。

Chart 8 shows the increase in backlog this year to a record level of $104 billion.

圖 8 顯示今年積壓訂單增加至創紀錄的 1,040 億美元。

You may recall from last quarter's call that we had -- that we had received both an F-35 LRIP 11 UCA as well as the multi-year 9 buy of BLACK HAWK helicopters shortly after the second quarter ended.

您可能還記得上個季度的電話會議，我們在第二季結束後不久收到了一架 F-35 LRIP 11 UCA 以及多年購買的 9 架黑鷹直升機。

I'm very pleased that with these awards as well as others in the quarter, our backlog increased above the $100 billion mark for the first time.

我非常高興的是，憑藉這些獎項以及本季的其他獎項，我們的積壓訂單首次突破 1000 億美元大關。

And importantly, our $104 billion backlog level includes only a minimal amount of orders for the potential $8 billion SOF GLSS contract we received in the quarter as we will recognize orders under this IDIQ vehicle only when incrementally added to the contract.

重要的是，我們1040 億美元的積壓水平僅包括我們在本季度收到的潛在80 億美元SOF GLSS 合約的極少量訂單，因為只有在增量添加到合約中時，我們才會承認此IDIQ 工具下的訂單。

Chart 9 provides our updated outlook for the year.

圖 9 提供了我們對今年的最新展望。

We are increasing our outlook for every metric other than the FAS/CAS adjustment.

我們正在提高 FAS/CAS 調整以外的所有指標的前景。

We are increasing our sales outlook by $200 million and our segment operating profit outlook by $20 million.

我們將銷售預期上調 2 億美元，並將部門營業利潤預期上調 2,000 萬美元。

In our unallocated items, we expect to resolve certain conditions related to a prior year's property sale in the fourth quarter, which will allow us to recognize a previously deferred $200 million gain, and we are recognizing a $20 million improvement in other expenses for the favorable contract resolutions I mentioned earlier.

在我們的未分配項目中，我們預計將在第四季度解決與上一年房地產銷售相關的某些條件，這將使我們能夠確認先前遞延的2 億美元收益，並且我們正在確認其他費用的2000 萬美元改善，以實現有利的結果。我之前提到的合約決議。

Our operating profit outlook increased by $240 million, reflecting both the increase in segment operating profit and the improvement in unallocated items.

我們的營業利潤前景增加了 2.4 億美元，反映了分部營業利潤的增加和未分配項目的改善。

With these improvements in our operating profit, we increased our earnings per share outlook by $0.55 to a new outlook of $12.85 to $13.15 per share.

隨著營業利潤的這些改善，我們將每股收益預期上調了 0.55 美元，至每股 12.85 美元至 13.15 美元。

Lastly, we are increasing our cash from operations outlook by $200 million to be equal to or greater than $6.2 billion.

最後，我們將營運預期現金增加 2 億美元，達到或超過 62 億美元。

Chart 10 shows our revised outlook by business area for sales.

圖 10 顯示了我們按業務領域劃分的修訂後的銷售前景。

We're increasing our sales outlook for Space Systems, RMS and Missiles and Fire Control by a collective $550 million due to higher volume expected in all 3 business areas while we are lowering our outlook for Aeronautics -- for the Aeronautics business area, excuse me, by $350 million based on an updated forecast of subcontractor production costs that will be incurred in 2017.

由於預計所有 3 個業務領域的銷量都會增加，我們將空間系統、RMS 和導彈以及火控領域的銷售前景總共提高了 5.5 億美元，同時我們降低了航空業務的前景 - 對於航空業務領域，請原諒根據2017 年分包商生產成本的最新預測，增加了3.5 億美元。

The net result of these changes is the overall increase in sales of $200 million.

這些變化的最終結果是銷售額整體增加了 2 億美元。

Turning to Chart 11, we show the changes in our segment operating profit outlook for the year.

請參閱圖 11，我們顯示了本年度部門營業利潤前景的變化。

We are increasing our outlook for profit for Aeronautics, Space Systems and Missiles and Fire Control by a collective $35 million, reflecting both improved performance and higher volume.

我們將航空、航太系統、飛彈和火控領域的利潤預期總共提高了 3500 萬美元，反映了性能的提高和產量的增加。

We are lowering our outlook for profit at RMS, primarily to recognize the performance issue we discussed in our earnings release.

我們降低了 RMS 的利潤預期，主要是為了認識到我們在收益發布中討論的績效問題。

The net of these changes is an overall increase of $20 million in our segment operating profit outlook.

扣除這些變化後，我們部門的營業利潤前景整體增加了 2,000 萬美元。

Chart 12 provides a view of how the new revenue recognition methodology, ASC 606, is expected to affect our 2017 results when that standard becomes effective next year.

圖 12 展示了新的收入確認方法 ASC 606 在該標準明年生效後預計將如何影響我們 2017 年的表現。

We expect 2017 sales under the new methodology will be about 2%, or $1 billion lower than the current methodology, while segment operating profit will be comparable under both the old and new methodologies.

我們預計，新方法下的 2017 年銷售額將比目前方法減少約 2%，即 10 億美元，而新舊方法下的分部營業利潤將相當。

As a result, we expect our segment operating margin will increase to around 10.3%.

因此，我們預計該部門的營業利潤率將增至 10.3% 左右。

We explained the reasons for the changes we expect for 2017 in the bullets on the chart.

我們在圖表上的項目符號中解釋了我們預期 2017 年會發生變化的原因。

Under the current revenue recognition standard, about 70% of our sales are already recorded using the cost-to-cost methodology and will have minimal if any change under the new standard.

根據現行的收入確認標準，我們約 70% 的銷售額已使用成本成本法記錄，並且在新標準下即使有任何變化，變化也很小。

About 30% of our sales are recorded as deliveries occur and this is where almost all of the impact of the change to the new standard will occur.

我們約 30% 的銷售額是在交貨時記錄的，而新標準變化的幾乎所有影響都將發生在此。

The main drivers behind the lower sales in 2017 under the new standard are programs where the quantities of deliveries in 2018 will be lower than the quantities of deliveries in 2017, and this occurs primarily with our aircraft programs like the F-16, C-5 and BLACK HAWK programs.

新標準下 2017 年銷量下降的主要原因是 2018 年交付數量將低於 2017 年的項目，這主要發生在我們的 F-16、C-5 等飛機項目上和黑鷹計劃。

Profit, on the other hand, is comparable under the 2 standards.

另一方面，兩種標準下的利潤相當。

We record our profit step-ups based on the same risk retirement events regardless of revenue recognition method, meaning the timing of those step ups does not change between the 2 standards.

無論收入確認方法為何，我們都根據相同的風險退休事件記錄利潤的增加，這意味著這些增加的時間在兩種標準之間不會改變。

While the timing of the step-ups does not change, the amount of inception to date cost incurred or cost of goods sold when the step-ups occur does change between those 2 standards.

雖然提高的時間沒有改變，但在這兩個標準之間，起始至今發生的成本或銷售成本在這兩個標準之間確實發生了變化。

The effect on our delivery-based sales contracts is always to shift sales to the left as we always incur significant cost before we begin to deliver our products.

對我們基於交付的銷售合約的影響總是使銷售向左移動，因為我們在開始交付產品之前總是會產生大量成本。

As a result, some step-ups in 2017 will be applied to higher inception-to-date costs, which helps to offset other contracts that had sales and profit shift to prior periods.

因此，2017 年的一些上調將適用於較高的初始至今成本，這有助於抵消銷售和利潤轉移到前期的其他合約。

The combination of all these unique impacts combined to create essentially no change to our profit in 2017 under either methodology.

所有這些獨特的影響結合起來，無論採用哪種方法，我們 2017 年的利潤基本上都沒有變化。

The important takeaway of the chart is that there is no change to the economics of our programs or cash from operations.

該圖表的重要要點是，我們的計劃的經濟效益或營運現金沒有變化。

The only change is to the phasing of sales and earnings recognized under GAAP.

唯一的變化是根據公認會計準則確認的銷售和收益的分階段。

We provide our preliminary trend information for 2018 under the new revenue recognition methodology on Chart 13.

我們在圖 13 中提供了新收入確認方法下 2018 年的初步趨勢資訊。

We expect our sales in 2018 will increase about 2% over the restated 2017 level.

我們預計 2018 年銷售額將比 2017 年重報水準成長約 2%。

Segment operating margin is expected to increase to a range of 10.3% to 10.5% next year.

明年該部門的營業利潤率預計將增至10.3%至10.5%。

Our cash from operations is expected to be equal to or greater than $5 billion after making required pension contributions of $1.6 billion, meaning our cash from operations before making pension contributions is expected to be $400 million higher than it was in 2017.

在繳納了 16 億美元所需的退休金後，我們的營運現金預計將等於或大於 50 億美元，這意味著我們在繳納退休金之前的營運現金預計將比 2017 年高出 4 億美元。

We expect to have share repurchases of equal to or greater than $1 billion, and we expect to retire about $750 million of debt that is maturing next year.

我們預計將回購相當於或超過 10 億美元的股票，並預計償還明年到期的約 7.5 億美元債務。

Our FAS/CAS outlook for the -- for next year is essentially comparable to this year at $860 million, and this outlook is based on interest rates remaining at their current level through year-end, which would be 25 basis points lower than when we began this year.

我們對明年的 FAS/CAS 展望基本上與今年的 8.6 億美元相當，這一展望是基於年底前保持在當前水平的利率，這將比我們預測時低 25 個基點。今年開始。

It also assumes a 9% return on our plan assets in 2017 holding to the performance we've experienced through the first 3 quarters, and it maintains our long-term return on assets assumption of a 7.5% return.

它還假設 2017 年我們的計劃資產回報率為 9%，保持我們前三個季度的業績，並維持我們 7.5% 的長期資產回報率假設。

Turning to Chart 14, we provide an update to both the original and new 3-year goals for cash from operations.

轉向圖 14，我們提供了原始和新的 3 年營運現金目標的更新。

Our original goal in October of 2014 was to generate $15 billion or more over the years 2015 to 2017 while we experienced what we called a pension funding holiday over those years.

我們在 2014 年 10 月的最初目標是在 2015 年至 2017 年期間創造 150 億美元或更多的收入，而這些年我們經歷了所謂的退休金融資假期。

I'm pleased that we now expect to generate $16.5 billion over this time period while absorbing $100 million of pension contributions for Sikorsky that were not envisioned when we developed this goal.

我很高興我們現在預計在此期間將產生 165 億美元的收入，同時為西科斯基吸收 1 億美元的退休金繳款，這是我們在製定這一目標時沒有預見到的。

In October of last year, we said that our new goal was to generate more than $15 billion for the years 2017 to 2019 even though we expect to have significantly higher required pension contributions over this time frame than we had during the pension funding holiday time frame.

去年10 月，我們表示，我們的新目標是在2017 年至2019 年期間創造超過150 億美元的收入，儘管我們預計在此期間所需的退休金繳款將顯著高於退休金基金假期期間的水平。

Based on our expected 2017 cash from operations of $6.2 billion, we now expect to generate more than $16 billion over the 2017 to 2019 time frame while contributing a total of $3.3 billion to our pension trust over 2018 and 2019.

根據我們預計 2017 年營運現金 62 億美元，我們現在預計在 2017 年至 2019 年期間將產生超過 160 億美元，同時在 2018 年和 2019 年向我們的退休金信託基金貢獻總計 33 億美元。

Finally, we have our summary on Chart 15.

最後，我們對圖 15 進行了總結。

We're increasing our full year outlook for all key financial metrics.

我們正在提高所有關鍵財務指標的全年預期。

Our record backlog positions us for sustained long-term growth.

我們創紀錄的積壓訂單使我們能夠實現持續的長期成長。

We will continue to have robust cash flow even with the higher pension contributions in the future.

即使未來退休金繳款增加，我們仍將維持強勁的現金流。

We'll maintain our balanced approach to cash deployment.

我們將維持平衡的現金部署方式。

And during our earnings call next quarter, we will provide our full year 2018 outlook under the new revenue recognition standard, which is effective for us on January 1.

在下個季度的財報電話會議上，我們將根據新的收入確認標準提供 2018 年全年展望，該標準將於 1 月 1 日生效。

With that, we're ready for your questions.

至此，我們已經準備好回答您的問題了。

John?

約翰？

(Operator Instructions) First, we'll go to Rich Safran with Buckingham Research.

（操作員指示）首先，我們將前往白金漢研究中心的 Rich Safran。

So I have a bit of a 2-part question about the guide.

我對本指南有一個由兩部分組成的問題。

I'd like to know, if you could, what your long-term cash from operations guide for greater than $16 billion includes.

如果可以的話，我想知道你們超過 160 億美元的長期營運現金指南包括哪些內容。

For example, are you anticipating a restart of the F-16 line assuming that Greece and Bahrain actually translate to orders?

例如，假設希臘和巴林實際上已轉化為訂單，您是否預計會重啟 F-16 生產線？

And are you including, for example, the Saudi FAAD order, which I'm assuming would benefit you in 2019.

例如，您是否包括沙烏地阿拉伯 FAAD 訂單，我認為該訂單將在 2019 年使您受益。

And the second part is just related to what you've been saying about Aeronautics in your opening remarks.

第二部分與您在開場白中談到的航空學有關。

You lowered the sales, and I wanted to know if the issues you spoke about maybe caused you to lower your guide portends anything about 2018 and why you might be guiding to 2% growth rather than higher.

您降低了銷售額，我想知道您所說的問題是否可能導致您降低指導值，這是否預示著 2018 年的情況，以及為什麼您可能會指導成長 2%，而不是更高。

Rich, let me take a shot at both those, I think.

Rich，我想讓我對這兩個都嘗試。

So I think the first part of your 2-parter was -- and good on you to get a two-parter in, by the way.

所以我認為你的兩部曲的第一部分是——順便說一句，讓兩部曲加入對你來說是件好事。

But your first part was cash from operations $16 billion, is that considered a restart of Greece and Bahrain and maybe Saudi FAAD, if I caught the question right.

但你的第一部分是來自 160 億美元營運的現金，這被認為是希臘和巴林以及沙烏地阿拉伯 FAAD 的重啟，如果我沒問錯的話。

So I think the short answer is that it includes the effect of all those in our cash from operations outlook.

因此，我認為簡短的答案是，它包括我們營運前景中所有現金的影響。

And I think maybe the heart of your question is whether or not there could be some upside, for instance, if FAAD were to happen sooner than maybe we have it planned or not, or if Greece and Bahrain might happen sooner.

我認為你問題的核心可能是是否會有一些好處，例如，如果 FAAD 比我們計劃的要早發生，或者希臘和巴林是否會更早發生。

I think the short answer to that is I wouldn't expect to see a lot of upside improvement because none of those are on a DCS, or direct commercial sale, basis, so there's no sort of down payment associated with that at all.

我認為對此問題的簡短回答是，我不會期望看到太多的上行改善，因為這些都不是基於 DCS（或直接商業銷售）的基礎，因此根本不存在與此相關的首付。

Those will be FMS payments.

這些將是 FMS 付款。

And at least for the start of those contracts, I would expect most, if not all of those, to be under progress payments.

至少在這些合約開始時，我預計大多數（如果不是全部）都將按進度付款。

So if anything, we probably got a little cash usage in the near term associated with winning those new orders as opposed to cash benefit.

因此，如果有的話，我們可能會在短期內獲得一些與贏得這些新訂單相關的現金使用，而不是現金收益。

You talked about 2019, by that time, Rich, the cash should start to turn around, and we would start to expect to see some positive cash come out of those orders I would expect during that time frame.

你談到了 2019 年，到那時，Rich，現金應該開始週轉，我們將開始期望看到一些正現金從我期望的那些訂單中產生。

And next, I think was the question on F-35 sales and lowering the outlook for this year and what does that portend for next year.

接下來，我認為是關於 F-35 銷售和降低今年前景的問題，以及這對明年意味著什麼。

I'm going to give you probably a longer than maybe even necessary response, Rich, to the question, because I think that's an important question.

里奇，我將給你一個可能比必要的回答更長的問題，因為我認為這是一個重要的問題。

I'm glad you asked it upfront there.

我很高興你事先問了這個問題。

So I think the very short answer is no, I don't think that portends anything for 2018 sales for F-35.

所以我認為非常簡短的答案是否定的，我認為這對 2018 年 F-35 的銷售沒有任何預示。

I think we're looking at about 16% sales growth in F-35 sales in 2017 over 2016.

我認為 2017 年 F-35 銷量將比 2016 年增長約 16%。

And as I look forward to 2018, there's still another mid-single digit -- or excuse me, 13% probably to 15% growth range and F-35 sales in 2018, so still very, very significant growth.

當我展望 2018 年時，2018 年 F-35 銷量還有另一個中個位數成長——或者抱歉，可能有 13% 到 15% 的成長範圍，所以仍然是非常非常顯著的成長。

In fact, if you take a look at the F-35 growth in the quarter, it's up 20% over the third quarter of last year.

事實上，如果你看本季 F-35 的成長，你會發現它比去年第三季成長了 20%。

So that program is growing at pretty good leaps and bounds.

所以這個項目正在快速發展。

And so I think that sort of begs the question of so why the lowering of the outlook for F-35, and it's a little bit of a complicated answer, so let me try to get into that.

因此，我認為這就引出了一個問題：為什麼要降低 F-35 的前景，這是一個有點複雜的答案，所以讓我試著探討這個問題。

First off, we're not in a steady state on the F-35 program.

首先，我們的 F-35 專案還沒有處於穩定狀態。

As I just said, we are growing at a very, very significant rate.

正如我剛才所說，我們正在以非常非常顯著的速度成長。

And I'll just tell you, it's a lot easier to forecast steady build programs where you're incurring the same cost year-to-year or the same number of deliveries year-to-year.

我只是告訴你，預測穩定的建置計劃要容易得多，因為你每年都會產生相同的成本或每年相同的交付數量。

It's much, much harder to forecast when you're either increasing rate or decreasing rate as we are with the F-35.

就像 F-35 一樣，預測何時增加或減少速度要困難得多。

And at any given calendar year, we probably have at least 3 LRIPs with significant cost incurred in each of those LRIPs all at the same time.

在任何給定的日曆年，我們可能至少有 3 個 LRIP，並且每個 LRIP 同時產生大量成本。

And more importantly, our suppliers amount to probably 65% or 70% of the total cost in each LRIP, and you should think of that as hundreds of thousands of suppliers -- hundreds to thousands, excuse me, not hundreds of thousands, for each LRIP.

更重要的是，我們的供應商可能佔每個LRIP 總成本的65% 或70%，您應該將其視為每個LRIP 都有數十萬個供應商——對不起，是數百到數千，而不是數十萬。遠端IP。

And frankly, we missed the phasing of this supplier cost this year.

坦白說，我們今年錯過了供應商成本的分階段。

I think it's important to note this does not impact the production of aircraft.

我認為重要的是要注意這不會影響飛機的生產。

It's just the timing of when we expected suppliers to incur their costs or bill their costs to us.

這只是我們期望供應商承擔成本或向我們收取成本的時間。

We're actually not missing the phasing on our internal costs.

事實上，我們並沒有錯過內部成本的分階段。

We are just missing the phasing of our supplier costs, and this doesn't change our overall expectations of cost by LRIP or the profitability by LRIP, simply the phasing of cost by year.

我們只是錯過了供應商成本的分階段，這不會改變我們對 LRIP 成本或 LRIP 盈利能力的整體預期，只是按年分階段進行成本。

And in a weird kind of way, we actually know the at completion cost for each LRIP probably better than we know when it's going to be phased by year.

以一種奇怪的方式，我們實際上對每個 LRIP 的完成成本的了解可能比我們對每年分階段進行的了解還要清楚。

So obviously, Rich, we've got to get this dialed in better with our supply chain cost going forward.

很明顯，Rich，我們必須更好地適應未來的供應鏈成本。

We think we're going to do that.

我們認為我們會這麼做。

We think we have the process in place to do that.

我們認為我們已經制定了適當的流程來做到這一點。

I will tell you, there is a twist coming up this year and probably next year, or 2018 and probably 2019, though, which is the economic order quantity that we expect to start incurring costs on actually this year in -- and into next year in 2019 and beyond.

我會告訴你，今年可能會出現一個轉折，可能是明年，或者 2018 年，可能是 2019 年，不過，我們預計今年和明年實際開始產生成本的經濟訂單數量2019 年及以後。

We're forecasting it's also going to present a bit of a challenge because there, we're actually buying for 3 LRIPs simultaneously versus 3 LRIPs uniquely like our historical data represents.

我們預測這也會帶來一些挑戰，因為我們實際上是同時購買 3 個 LRIP，而不是像我們的歷史資料所代表的那樣獨特地購買 3 個 LRIP。

So not trying to overcomplicate things hopefully for you, Rich.

所以，里奇，希望你不要試圖讓事情變得太複雜。

But just to give you an appreciation for why we don't think that's a long-term issue with the F-35.

但只是為了讓您理解為什麼我們認為這不是 F-35 的長期問題。

It doesn't change the economics of the F-35 program.

它不會改變 F-35 項目的經濟效益。

We simply missed the phasing in 2017 of our supplier cost.

我們只是錯過了 2017 年供應商成本的分階段。

Our next question is from Rob Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Rob Stallard。

Maybe just to follow-up on Rich's question there, Bruce.

也許只是為了跟進里奇的問題，布魯斯。

When you're talking about cost, this is because these are cost-plus programs, right?

當您談論成本時，這是因為這些是成本加成計劃，對吧？

And therefore these get passed on with revenues and that's why the revenues in the third quarter weren't as you'd originally guided.

因此，這些會隨著收入轉嫁出去，這就是為什麼第三季的收入不符合您最初的預期。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Let me correct you a little bit, Rich (sic) [Rob].

讓我糾正一下你的錯誤，Rich（原文如此）[Rob]。

You should think of almost all the F-35 as fixed-price incentive firm contracts, not cost-plus, but they're all recognized under a POC cost to cost, if that might have been your question, method of recognition, sales recognition versus a delivery-based.

您應該將幾乎所有 F-35 視為固定價格激勵公司合同，而不是成本加成，但它們都根據 POC 成本對成本進行認可，如果這可能是您的問題，認可方法，銷售認可與基於交付的。

And then how does that flow through to the operating margin?

那麼它是如何影響營業利潤率的呢？

Is this that if revenues flip to the right, you therefore can't book them in the quarter.

如果收入向右翻轉，您就無法在該季度預訂它們。

They will be recognized in the fourth quarter when these costs are incurred.

這些費用將在第四季產生時予以確認。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

That's exactly right, Rob.

完全正確，羅布。

Okay.

好的。

Glad I got that cleared up.

很高興我把這個問題弄清楚了。

And then just finally on the cash guide you've given for 2017, '18 and '19.

最後是您提供的 2017 年、18 年和 19 年現金指南。

How much of that change is coming from the adjustments to '17 versus the out-years in '18 and '19?

與 18 年和 19 年相比，這種變化有多少來自 17 年的調整？

So most of it is coming from '17, Rob.

所以大部分都來自 17 年，Rob。

I'll say with the improved performance that we've seen this year, I think we're up, what, $500 million or so this year over what we initially guided towards when we came out with that guidance at the beginning of the year.

我想說的是，隨著我們今年看到的業績改善，我認為今年我們比年初發布指導時最初指導的目標增加了 5 億美元左右。

I think there was always some confusion, at least as I met with investors and talked to some of the analysts myself as to was our cash going to sort of fall off the face of the earth when we started making some fairly large pension contributions.

我認為總是存在一些困惑，至少當我會見投資者並親自與一些分析師交談時，當我們開始繳納相當大的退休金繳款時，我們的現金是否會從地球表面掉下來。

And there, I'm pleased to say that even with those, we still think we can stay at the $5 billion-plus level in the years 2018 and '19.

在那裡，我很高興地說，即使有了這些，我們仍然認為我們可以在 2018 年和 19 年保持在 50 億美元以上的水平。

So most of the change occurred in the upper first -- 2017 performance, but I did want to give the indication that still strong cash performance, especially if you consider sort of pre-pension cash flow, our numbers are increasing every year, '17, '18, all the way through '19.

因此，大部分變化發生在上層 - 2017 年的業績中，但我確實想表明現金業績仍然強勁，特別是如果您考慮養老金前現金流，我們的數字每年都在增加，'17 ，'18，一直到'19。

Our next question is from Hunter Keay with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Hunter Keay。

Marillyn, can you talk about maybe what you think went wrong with the GBSD downselect and maybe what some of the lessons learned that you guys took from that bidding process?

Marilyn，您能談談您認為 GBSD 下選出了什麼問題嗎？也許你們從投標過程中吸取了一些教訓？

Well, I would just say that on GBSD, we thought we had a very strong offering and we still believe we had a strong offering.

好吧，我只想說，在 GBSD 上，我們認為我們提供了非常強大的產品，而且我們仍然相信我們擁有強大的產品。

So in terms of any lessons learned from that, we always reflect on why we lost the program, we always go through lessons learned process, but I don't think there's anything specifically that I would pass on to you at this point.

因此，就從中汲取的經驗教訓而言，我們總是反思為什麼我們失去了該計劃，我們總是經歷經驗教訓的過程，但我認為此時我不會具體向您傳達任何內容。

Okay.

好的。

Nothing specific about that program or any questions you may have about the overall sort of bidding process for Lockheed in general going forward, that was just sort of isolated?

關於該計劃沒有任何具體信息，或者您對洛克希德公司未來的整體招標流程可能有任何疑問，這只是某種孤立的？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I think we still have a chance to participate in other elements of that program going forward.

我的意思是，我認為我們仍然有機會參與該計劃的其他部分。

So we're still hopeful in that regard.

所以我們在這方面還是抱持希望的。

We have a lot of capability to bring to our customer.

我們有很多能力可以為我們的客戶帶來。

Next we'll go to Peter Arment with Robert W. Baird.

接下來我們將與 Robert W. Baird 一起拜訪 Peter Arment。

Bruce, maybe just a quick one on kind of you just highlighted the F-35 growth year-over-year.

Bruce，也許您只是簡單介紹 F-35 的年成長情況。

Kind of talking about '18, I think you said 13% to 15%.

說到 18 年，我想你說的是 13% 到 15%。

And I know you kind of highlighted F-16, C-5, BLACK HAWKs will be down.

我知道你們強調的 F-16、C-5、黑鷹將會被擊落。

So it kind of implies that there's not a lot of growth from the rest of the portfolio, which seems kind of unrealistic.

因此，這有點意味著投資組合的其餘部分沒有太多成長，這似乎有點不切實際。

But maybe you could just highlight what some of the moving parts are around when we're thinking about the top line growth for '18.

但也許您可以在我們考慮 18 年營收成長時強調一些變化的部分。

Yes.

是的。

So it's -- I know it's a lot of moving parts and probably a lot of confusion, Peter, because we're basing our sales growth next year based on restated 2017 numbers where we've not given and you haven't seen that laid out by business area.

所以，我知道有很多變動的部分，可能還有很多混亂，Peter，因為我們明年的銷售成長是基於 2017 年重述的數字，而我們沒有給出這些數字，你也沒有看到這一點按業務區域劃分。

So it's a little bit of explaining something kind of on faith at this point in time, frankly, because you don't have the data in front of you.

因此，坦白說，此時此刻需要解釋一些信仰，因為你面前沒有數據。

We'll obviously provide some restated '17 performance based under the new revenue recognition when we present our data in the January time frame.

當我們在 1 月份的時間範圍內提供數據時，我們顯然會根據新的收入確認提供一些重述的 17 年業績。

But given that, what we're looking at is aero's probably going to be up I would think high-single digits sales next year.

但考慮到這一點，我們所關注的是航空引擎可能會有所成長，我認為明年的銷售額將達到高個位數。

And obviously, most of that is driven by the F-35 program.

顯然，其中大部分是由 F-35 項目推動的。

That's helping to offset both lower F-35 development costs, although the F-35 development program continues.

儘管 F-35 開發計劃仍在繼續，但這有助於抵消 F-35 開發成本降低的影響。

It's dropping probably $0.25 billion year-over-year, so that's a pretty good headwind for us.

年比可能下降 2.5 億美元，因此這對我們來說是一個相當大的阻力。

And as you said, obviously, we've got the lower C-5.

正如你所說，顯然我們有較低的 C-5。

What you didn't mention is we've also got next year, 0 F-16 deliveries.

你沒有提到的是，我們明年還將交付 0 架 F-16。

So we just got to start on hopefully the Bahrain aircraft there, but actually lower F-16 volume next year for production aircraft than we have in 2017.

因此，我們希望在那裡開始生產巴林飛機，但實際上明年生產飛機的 F-16 數量比 2017 年還要低。

Missiles and Fire Control I'll say has slight growth over 2017.

我想說飛彈和火控比 2017 年略有成長。

Again, these are all relative to the sort of restated '17 numbers under the new revenue recognition, but you should think of that as sort of low single-digit growth.

同樣，這些都與新收入確認下重述的 17 年數字相關，但您應該將其視為較低的個位數成長。

And I think where that may be a little surprising is given all the discussion we've had about the potential FAAD awards, especially with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and others, really that work is not planned in our outlook to start until the middle of next year, and that's a pretty slow buildup of cost relative to our supply chain on the FAAD programs.

我認為這可能有點令人驚訝，因為我們對潛在的 FAAD 獎項進行了所有討論，特別是與沙烏地阿拉伯王國和其他國家，實際上，我們的前景中並沒有計劃在 2017 年中期開始這項工作。明年，相對於我們FAAD 計畫的供應鏈來說，成本的成長相當緩慢。

So even though the numbers are very, very large, they really don't amount to just a huge amount of sales growth in 2018 versus 2017.

因此，儘管數字非常非常大，但與 2017 年相比，它們實際上並不意味著 2018 年的銷售量大幅增加。

RMS next year is about comparable probably as our current outlook for 2017 where we have LCS volume, including by the way, the LCS ships for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which is the only program of the ones that were announced where we've actually received some funding and we're starting to do some design work and so forth on the LCS variance for use in that ship by the KSA, and that's helping to offset really lower BLACK HAWK aircraft deliveries in volume therefore for next year as we talked about in our prepared remarks.

明年的 RMS 可能與我們目前對 2017 年的展望相當，我們的瀕海戰鬥艦數量，包括沙烏地阿拉伯王國的瀕海戰鬥艦數量，這是我們實際宣布的唯一計劃。收到了一些資金，我們開始對沙烏地航空在該艦上使用的瀕海戰鬥艦差異進行一些設計工作等，這有助於抵消明年黑鷹飛機交付量的下降，正如我們所說在我們準備好的發言中。

And lastly, Space Systems is probably down mid-single digits.

最後，太空系統公司的股價可能會下降中個位數。

You should think of that as sort of the continuing trend of lower government satellite volume, both for [servers] and advanced EHF.

您應該將其視為政府衛星數量下降的持續趨勢，無論是[伺服器]還是先進的 EHF。

And again, this is sort of the good news, bad news story where we have the same quantity of satellites that we're producing, but because we're now in the fifth and sixth variance or fifth and sixth number of servers and advanced EHF, we're making each one of them for less than the previous satellites.

再說一遍，這是一個好消息，也是壞消息的故事，我們擁有與我們正在生產的相同數量的衛星，但因為我們現在處於第五和第六個方差或第五和第六數量的伺服器和先進的EHF ，我們每一顆衛星的製造成本都低於之前的衛星。

So while the quantities stay the same, the pricing is coming down.

因此，雖然數量保持不變，但價格卻下降了。

And that's a good thing for us, by the way.

順便說一句，這對我們來說是一件好事。

And then that that's -- so that's a big piece of it.

然後那就是——所以這是其中的很大一部分。

The other piece of it is, literally, there's very, very little commercial satellite volume or much, much lower commercial satellite volume in 2018 compared to 2017 as we wrap up 2 satellites that we'll deliver out in the early stages of 2018.

另一方面，從字面上看，2018 年的商業衛星數量非常非常少，或者說與 2017 年相比，商業衛星數量要低得多，因為我們將在 2018 年初交付兩顆衛星。

So that's kind of the 'round the horn pieces, Peter, of what's driving the sales volume that I talked about in total at the corporation level.

彼得，這就是我在公司層面談到的推動銷售的關鍵因素。

Our next question is from Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞·波波納克。

Bruce, so if I take the 2% organic revenue growth 2018, I take the little bit of segment margin expansion, it kind of gets in the zone of a couple of hundred million bucks of segment EBIT growth, '18 versus '17.

布魯斯，所以如果我考慮 2018 年 2% 的有機收入增長，我會考慮一點點的細分市場利潤率擴張，這相當於 18 年與 17 年的細分市場 EBIT 增長了數億美元。

It looks like that will basically be offset by the other line where you've got some favorable items this year that don't recur.

看起來這基本上會被另一條線抵消，你今年有一些不會重複的有利商品。

So it sort of looks like total EBIT gets in the zone of flat.

因此，總息稅前利潤似乎持平。

And then if I assume the tax rate is probably a little higher because you had a few favorable tax rate quarters.

然後，如果我假設稅率可能會高一點，因為你有幾個有利的稅率季度。

Share count's maybe 3 million or 4 million shares lower based on the buyback guidance you gave today.

根據您今天給予的回購指導，股票數量可能會減少 300 萬股或 400 萬股。

Those kind of roughly offset.

這些大致抵消了。

It sort of has me -- it sort of has the model just showing 2018 earnings kind of close to flat versus the updated '17 guidance, maybe a little bit of growth.

它有點像我——它的模型剛剛顯示 2018 年的收益與更新的 17 年指導相比接近持平，也許還有一點增長。

And I guess the reason I'm going through that and asking that is I'm staring at the consensus number that's over $14.

我想我之所以要經歷這個並提出這個問題是因為我盯著超過 14 美元的共識數字。

Obviously, you always have some contingency in your margin guidance.

顯然，你的保證金指導中總是有一些意外情況。

You might buy back more stock, but I'm just wondering if I'm missing anything in at least where you're going to start the '18 outlook looking relatively close to flat on an earnings basis.

你可能會回購更多股票，但我只是想知道我是否遺漏了一些東西，至少在你將要開始的 18 年前景中，盈利基礎上看起來相對接近持平。

Noah, look, I think your math is actually pretty close to what I'm looking at.

諾亞，你看，我認為你的數學實際上與我所看到的非常接近。

I think the one piece you didn't mention in all that, and I don't know what you have in your model and I don't know what the other folks have in their models, but I'd be surprised if you have a FAS/CAS outlook of $860 million for next year.

我認為你在所有這些中都沒有提到的一件事情，我不知道你的模型中有什麼，我也不知道其他人的模型中有什麼，但如果你有，我會感到驚訝FAS/CAS明年的預期為8.6 億美元。

That's actually a little bit lower than this year.

這實際上比今年要低一些。

We incorporated the 25 basis point reduction that we saw through the end of the first 3 quarters in the numbers.

我們將前 3 季末看到的 25 個基點的下降納入了數字中。

I'm personally hopeful that we have an uptick in interest rates between now and the end of the year, and maybe that goes away.

我個人希望從現在到年底我們的利率會上升，也許這種情況會消失。

But as we sit here right now, that's down considerably from at least what we were expecting the FAS/CAS to look like in 2018 compared to the $860 million.

但就我們現在而言，與 8.6 億美元相比，這至少比我們對 2018 年 FAS/CAS 的預期要低得多。

So that's a pretty good chunk I think of the difference from sort of the EPS numbers you were mentioning there.

因此，我認為這是一個相當不錯的部分，與您在那裡提到的每股盈餘數字有所不同。

I think the absolute segment profit, the operating profit numbers you were talking about, are probably close to what we're expecting to see.

我認為絕對的部門利潤，即你所說的營業利潤數字，可能接近我們預期看到的情況。

Next we'll go to Rob Spingarn with Crédit Suisse.

接下來我們將前往瑞士信貸銀行 (Crédit Suisse) 的 Rob Spingarn。

So Bruce, for you, going back to the 2%, and I suppose this addresses some of what's already been discussed, but you've got this book-to-bill of [1.2].

所以 Bruce，對你來說，回到 2%，我想這解決了一些已經討論過的問題，但你已經得到了 [1.2] 的這本書。

At some point, there's a nice sales inflection up.

在某些時候，銷售會出現良好的上升。

So I'd like to talk about when that's coming, what your time frame is for that.

所以我想談談什麼時候到來，你們的時間表是多少。

And then in the backlog, is there -- is that $104 billion a gross number or net number?

那麼在積壓的訂單中，1,040 億美元是總額還是淨額？

Is there any debt backlog in there that is pressuring sales that needs to come out?

是否有積壓的債務對需要解決的銷售造成壓力？

If I understand the last part of your question, then the answer is no.

如果我理解你問題的最後一部分，那麼答案是否定的。

And the $104 billion is a backlog just like any other backlog number we would have presented to you at any point in time, Rob.

1040 億美元是積壓訂單，就像我們隨時向您提供的任何其他積壓訂單數字一樣，Rob。

So no to that question.

所以對這個問題不回答。

Your book-to-bill question, the 1.2 and $104 billion, the record number we had in the third quarter, and I think your question in a nutshell is so why doesn't that translate into higher growth in 2018 than just the 2% we're talking about?

您的訂單出貨量問題，即1.2 和1040 億美元，這是我們在第三季度創下的創紀錄數字，我認為您的問題簡而言之就是，為什麼這不能轉化為2018 年比2% 更高的成長我們在談什麼？

Yes, or when does it?

是的，或者什麼時候？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Rob, is we do typically sort of 3-ish year plans.

羅布，我認為我們通常會制定三年左右的計劃。

And if you take a look here, which you can't, but if you look beyond 2018 into 2019 and 2020, we're probably in the 4.5%, 5% CAGR level for each of those 2 years over the 2018 numbers.

如果你看一下這裡，你看不到，但如果你把目光從2018 年展望到2019 年和2020 年，你會發現這兩年的複合年增長率可能比2018 年的數字高出4.5% 和5 %。

So I think that's where some of that, at least, growth occurs.

所以我認為這至少是其中一些成長發生的地方。

But some of the opportunities within the $104 billion and some of the opportunities that aren't in the $104 billion, such as the $15 billion of KSA -- I'm sorry, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia order for the FAAD program for instance that Marillyn referenced in her remarks, even when that gets in backlog, that's a long-cycle program, so it'll take a while.

但是 1040 億美元內的一些機會和 1040 億美元之外的一些機會，例如 KSA 的 150 億美元 - 對不起，沙特阿拉伯王國為 FAAD 計劃下的訂單，例如瑪麗蓮她在講話中提到，即使積壓，這也是一個長週期的計劃，所以需要一段時間。

Even though we're recording that on a cost-to-cost basis, it's still a long duration, long-cycle program.

儘管我們是按成本比來記錄的，但這仍然是一個持續時間長、週期長的計劃。

So that was the point we were trying to make the comments about.

這就是我們試圖發表評論的重點。

This does really, really well position us for future growth for a long, sustained period of time.

這確實為我們未來長期持續的成長奠定了良好的基礎。

It just doesn't happen overnight.

這不是一朝一夕就能發生的。

And especially, if you will allow me to call 2018 overnight.

尤其是，如果你允許我通宵打電話給2018年的話。

I mean, the other prospect that we've got long-term sustained growth for is the 53K, and it's got one of the slowest starts on a program that large that I've ever seen.

我的意思是，我們獲得長期持續成長的另一個前景是 53K，它是我見過的如此大的專案中起步最慢的之一。

I mean, we're literally talking 2 aircraft in the LRIP 1 contract.

我的意思是，我們實際上討論的是 LRIP 1 合約中的 2 架飛機。

I think it grows to 4 in the next one.

我認為下一期它會增長到4。

I mean, it's a very, very, very slow growth rate, so that's one we'd love to get some higher growth coming out of there.

我的意思是，這是一個非常、非常、非常緩慢的成長率，所以我們希望從中獲得更高的成長。

But that's the reason why, I think, Rob, it looks a little light maybe compared to what you were expecting in 2018.

但這就是為什麼，我認為，Rob，與你 2018 年的期望相比，它看起來可能有點輕。

I think it starts to pick up probably to where your expectations are much more in 2019 and 2020.

我認為 2019 年和 2020 年它可能會開始回升，達到您的預期。

Our next question is from Jason Gursky with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Bruce, I was wondering if you could do the same thing that you did on revenues by segment and talk about the operating profit outlook as we move out into 2018 and discuss kind of the puts and takes by segment.

Bruce，我想知道您是否可以對按細分市場的收入進行相同的操作，並在我們進入 2018 年時討論營業利潤前景，並討論按細分市場的看跌期權和收益。

Yes.

是的。

I can give a shot at that, Jason.

我可以嘗試一下，傑森。

Again, this is all a little bit maybe taken on faith since this is new revenue recognition when your [heads] and all of their modeling is based on the old revenue recognitions.

再說一次，這可能有點相信，因為當你的[負責人]和他們的所有模型都基於舊的收入確認時，這是新的收入確認。

But this will be how we come out with numbers in January of next year.

但這將是我們在明年一月得出數據的方式。

So maybe just starting with the same order as I did I think earlier going around the horn.

所以也許只是以與我之前認為的相同的順序開始繞喇叭。

I think for Aeronautics, you should expect our [ROCE] probably in the upper 10% range, probably pretty comparable to this year.

我認為對於航空業，您應該預期我們的 [ROCE] 可能在 10% 的範圍內，可能與今年相當。

I'm very happy to say that the F-35 program we're expecting to be greater than 10% overall program margin in 2018, and that's helping to offset -- really lower C-5 and primarily F-16 earnings, which led to margin growth due to higher risk retirements in 2017.

我很高興地說，我們預計 2018 年 F-35 專案整體利潤率將超過 10%，這有助於抵消 C-5 和主要是 F-16 收入的下降，這導致了由於2017 年退休風險較高，利潤率有所成長。

But upper tens is probably a good spot, frankly, for Aeronautics.

但坦白說，對於航空業來說，上十可能是一個好地方。

And about what we've been saying for a number of years is that when we saw the F-35 program start to get to double digit, we'd start to see Aeronautics get back to closer to where it was margin-wise a few years ago.

多年來我們一直在說的是，當我們看到 F-35 項目開始達到兩位數時，我們就會開始看到航空業回到更接近利潤率的水平幾年前。

So we're [going] sort of right at that cusp here.

所以我們正處於這個風口浪尖。

For Missiles and Fire Control, probably about -- you should think of it about a mid-teens sort of ROCE , maybe slightly below the 2017 level.

對於飛彈和火力控制，您應該將其視為大約十幾歲的 ROCE，可能略低於 2017 年的水平。

And I think that's an interesting one because I don't think -- I don't think it's easily understood just how many new wins we have.

我認為這是一件有趣的事情，因為我認為——我認為我們有多少新的勝利並不容易理解。

In fact, one out of our Missile and Fire Control business.

事實上，這是我們的飛彈和火控業務之一。

I mean, if I just go around the horn, Marillyn mentioned the Long-Range Standoff, sort of the next generation nuclear cruise missile.

我的意思是，如果我繞開喇叭，瑪麗蓮提到了遠程對峙，有點像下一代核子巡航飛彈。

We also won the F-15 IRST.

我們還贏得了 F-15 IRST。

We won a large classified contract.

我們贏得了一份大型機密合約。

We won the SOF GLSS we talked about.

我們贏得了我們談論的 SOF GLSS。

We won the [arts], I believe it's [arts 2d], which is sort of a threat radar or threat emitter contract -- I mean, these are all substantive starts, new starts for us -- I mean, just to give you some idea there, we're in the process of hiring 1,000 engineers for these new programs that we won in 2017 -- so that's great from a long-term prospect for us, but it sort of hurts the margin in the near term and that's what keeps it sort of at the level that I just talked about -- RMS, if you look at the EBIT or the ROCE for next year, probably slightly higher than 2017 -- I'd say maybe in the mid-7%, maybe a little higher than that range in 2018.

我們贏得了[藝術]，我相信它是[藝術2d]，這是一種威脅雷達或威脅發射器合約- 我的意思是，這些都是實質性的開始，對我們來說是新的開始-我的意思是，只是給你有個想法，我們正在為2017 年贏得的這些新項目招聘1,000 名工程師——所以從長遠來看，這對我們來說是很好的，但它在短期內會損害利潤率，那就是什麼使它保持在我剛才談到的水平- RMS，如果你看看明年的息稅前利潤或ROCE，可能會比2017 年略高- 我想說也許在7% 左右，也許略高於 2018 年的範圍。

And then for Space Systems, I think it's slightly higher than 2017, and that's primarily because we have less commercial satellite volume in 2018 than we did in 2017, and that's essentially at a 0 margin business.

然後對於太空系統，我認為略高於 2017 年，這主要是因為我們 2018 年的商業衛星數量比 2017 年要少，基本上是零利潤業務。

So as I said earlier, we have 2 satellites that should deliver in the early to mid part of 2018 so there's just simply less cost volume at that lower margin rate in '18 and '17 which helps the '18 margin.

正如我之前所說，我們有 2 顆衛星應該在 2018 年中上旬交付，因此在 18 年和 17 年利潤率較低的情況下，成本量會減少，這有助於 18 年利潤率。

And importantly, I think just to mention, ULA, the equity earnings are pretty comparable between 2017 and 2018.

重要的是，我想提一下，ULA，2017 年和 2018 年的股本收益相當可比。

I know I just gave you a lot, Jason.

我知道我給了你很多，傑森。

Hopefully, that answers your question and makes sense to you.

希望這能回答您的問題並對您有意義。

Next we'll go to Doug Harned with Bernstein.

接下來我們將和伯恩斯坦一起去道格·哈尼德。

Marillyn, you talked earlier about the challenges in the budget process right now.

瑪麗蓮，您之前談到了目前預算流程中的挑戰。

And if you look at the House with -- House appropriations has come up with and you look where Senate in house authorization bills have gone, you're looking at high double-digit growth in the investment account.

如果你看看眾議院的撥款情況，以及參議院的眾議院授權法案的去向，你會看到投資帳戶的兩位數高成長。

And if you contrast that with a CR at present, with the BCA cap say, you're looking at scenarios for '18 that are very far apart.

如果你將其與目前的 CR（例如 BCA 上限）進行對比，你會發現 18 年的情況相距甚遠。

And what I'm interested in is, when you plan going forward and you think about what your revenue growth will be and also what your investments are, how do you manage this uncertainty?

我感興趣的是，當你計劃未來並考慮你的收入成長是什麼以及你的投資是什麼時，你如何管理這種不確定性？

In other words, what's the range of outcomes here and when would we expect to see an impact one way or another on your revenues and earnings?

換句話說，這裡的結果範圍是多少？我們預期什麼時候會看到對您的收入和收益產生某種影響？

Thanks for the question, Doug.

謝謝你的提問，道格。

I guess the first thing I would say is that we have a number of programs that are -- programs of record that are well supported in both the House and the Senate bills.

我想我要說的第一件事是，我們有許多計劃，這些計劃都得到了眾議院和參議院法案的大力支持。

So if you look at that and you look at where we are, our programs today, as Bruce was talking about, are long-cycle programs that are already under contract that we're working through.

因此，如果你看看這一點，看看我們現在的處境，正如布魯斯所說，我們今天的計劃是長週期計劃，我們已經在合約中完成了這些計劃。

So even with the CR, we're not going to see any immediate impact.

因此，即使有了 CR，我們也不會看到任何直接影響。

What it affects is if it extends into next year, and I'm actually feeling pretty optimistic that it's not going to do that.

它的影響是它是否會延續到明年，而我實際上非常樂觀地認為它不會這樣做。

I think when I look at where the bipartisan support for defense and the move to try to get through this budget so they can move on to tax reform and other things, I feel pretty good about that.

我認為，當我看到兩黨對國防的支持以及試圖通過這項預算的舉措，以便他們可以繼續進行稅收改革和其他事情時，我對此感覺非常好。

In terms of -- you look at our portfolio, I mean, when we are last year, about 27% of our portfolio was international, we're growing to over 30%.

就我們的投資組合而言，我的意思是，去年我們的投資組合中約 27% 是國際投資，我們正在成長到 30% 以上。

That's also another element that you have to take into account.

這也是您必須考慮的另一個因素。

We are not totally reliant on the U.S. government budget for our growth going forward.

我們未來的成長並不完全依賴美國政府預算。

And then as I just think about where the -- if you look at the programs that are supported in the current budget bills from both the House and the Senate, we are really well supported on -- virtually across our portfolio.

然後，我想，如果你看看眾議院和參議院當前預算法案中支持的計劃，我們實際上在整個投資組合中都得到了很好的支持。

So I'm very happy with our portfolio.

所以我對我們的產品組合非常滿意。

We're continuing to win business.

我們正在繼續贏得業務。

You heard Bruce and I talk about several things that we've just won in the past quarter.

你聽到布魯斯和我談論了我們在上個季度剛剛贏得的幾件事。

And of course, the F-35 continues to grow and be well supported.

當然，F-35 仍在不斷發展並得到良好支持。

So I'm pretty -- I feel pretty bullish about our portfolio and where we're going.

所以我非常看好我們的投資組合以及我們的發展方向。

Even if we were to face additional budget caps, we know for the long term that's something that we've been a strong voice on the Hill about, of trying to get our lawmakers to address the budget caps.

即使我們面臨額外的預算上限，我們知道從長遠來看，我們一直在國會強烈呼籲，試圖讓我們的立法者解決預算上限問題。

And they are all -- everyone I speak to understands that and they're focused on it.

與我交談過的每個人都明白這一點，並且他們都專注於這一點。

I they think we're going to have a chance to do that.

我認為我們將有機會做到這一點。

The time is now.

就是現在。

So hopefully, that answers your question, Doug.

希望這能回答你的問題，道格。

Our next question is from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Bruce, I guess maybe to keep you on your toes a little bit, in terms of the cash guide for this year, at $6.2 billion, I'm thinking about the pension headwind.

Bruce，我想也許是為了讓您保持警惕，就今年 62 億美元的現金指南而言，我正在考慮退休金逆風。

But if the pension contribution is offset a little bit by higher CAS, and then you think about it after tax, it seems like maybe it should be about $1 billion headwind all in.

但如果退休金繳款被更高的 CAS 抵消一點，然後你考慮稅後，看起來也許應該有大約 10 億美元的逆風。

And then maybe there's still a few hundred million of Sikorsky working capital release.

然後也許西科斯基仍然可以釋放幾億的營運資金。

Can you highlight maybe any other moving pieces to think about as we move from cash flow in '17 to '18?

當我們從 17 年的現金流轉向 18 年的現金流時，您能否強調可能需要考慮的任何其他變化因素？

Actually, Seth, I think you pretty much nailed it.

事實上，塞思，我認為你已經做到了這一點。

I think you've got the right numbers in your head, and that's sort of the way I think about it as well.

我認為你腦子裡已經有正確的數字，我也是這麼想的了。

I don't think I've got a whole lot to add other than what you said.

除了你所說的之外，我認為我沒有太多要補充的。

Okay.

好的。

And then anything -- you could meet your guidance for '17 and '18 and then the implied cash for '19 is below $5 billion.

然後任何事情 - 你都可以滿足 '17 和 '18 的指導，然後 '19 的隱含現金低於 50 億美元。

With growth accelerating, there's no reason to expect cash to decline in '19, right?

隨著成長加速，沒有理由預期 19 年現金會減少，對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

And honestly, we weren't trying to indicate that.

老實說，我們並沒有試圖表明這一點。

I think if you look at the chart, in the web charts that we provided, it's at greater than $16.2 billion, and we tried to indicate that included $6.2 billion in 2017 and at least $5 billion each in '18 and '19, so we weren't trying to guide to a lower than $5 billion number in '19.

我想如果你看一下圖表，在我們提供的網絡圖表中，它超過 162 億美元，我們試圖表明其中包括 2017 年的 62 億美元，以及 18 年和 19 年各至少 50 億美元，所以我們並沒有試圖將19 年的數字引導到低於50 億美元。

Our next question is from Rajeev Lalwani with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Rajeev Lalwani。

Bruce, a question for you.

布魯斯，問你一個問題。

Obviously, you came out with your trending data for '18 that's a bit light versus expectations.

顯然，您得出的 18 年趨勢數據與預期相比有點輕。

Why not use pension pre-funding as an opportunity to maybe offset some of those headwinds and maybe improve the outlook as far as earnings into our cash flow?

為什麼不利用退休金預籌資金作為一個機會來抵銷一些不利因素，並改善現金流收益的前景呢？

Look, we've looked at pension a lot of ways.

看，我們已經從很多方面研究了退休金。

I mean, we're already funded in advance of what the requirements of our pension plan to the tune of about $7 billion, almost $8 billion or so.

我的意思是，我們已經提前為退休金計畫的要求提供了大約 70 億美元、近 80 億美元左右的資金。

We are well ahead of the game in terms of pension funding.

在退休金資金方面，我們遙遙領先。

I mean, we look at that constantly.

我的意思是，我們不斷地關注這一點。

And I'll tell you, and I know I've said this when I talked to investors in various conferences and so forth.

我會告訴你，我知道我在各種會議等與投資者交談時已經說過這​​一點。

If in fact tax reform is initiated, we will clearly look at potentially accelerating our pension contributions even if it requires taking out some debt to do so simply because if the numbers we're talking about, let's just for argument's sake, say it is actually a 20% statutory corporate tax rate versus 35%, that equates to real money when you get the benefit of the 35% deduction on your pension contributions versus the 20%, so we would clearly want to accelerate some in that regard if in fact tax reform happens.

如果實際上啟動稅收改革，我們將清楚地考慮可能加速我們的退休金繳款，即使這需要拿出一些債務來做到這一點，因為如果我們正在談論的數字，讓我們只是為了爭論，說它實際上是20% 的法定企業稅率與35% 相比，當您獲得退休金繳款35% 的扣除優惠（與20% 相比）時，這相當於真正的金錢，因此，如果事實上稅收，我們顯然希望在這方面加快一些步伐改革發生了。

Short of that, I mean, unless there's maybe some -- if we have a couple of fairly significant collections associated with some international contracts right on the cusp of this year, 2017 that could slip into '18, depending on the timing of when those things happen, whether it's late December or flips into next year, if all of them happen and we get hit on the head with horseshoes in 2017, we might actually make -- try to get a dent in our pension contributions this year, which of course would lower our pension contributions next year sort of dollar for dollar.

除此之外，我的意思是，除非可能有一些——如果我們在今年、2017 年即將到來之際有一些與一些國際合約相關的相當重要的收藏，那麼它們可能會滑入18 年，具體取決於這些收藏的時間。事情發生了，無論是12 月底還是明年，如果所有這些都發生，而我們在2017 年被馬蹄鐵擊中頭部，我們實際上可能會嘗試減少今年的養老金繳款，其中當然，明年我們的退休金繳款會逐美元降低。

But that's sort of the only thing we're thinking about as we sit here today.

但這是我們今天坐在這裡時唯一考慮的事情。

But in any event, still, I would expect to achieve the $6.2 billion of cash from operations this year.

但無論如何，我仍然期望今年能夠從營運中獲得 62 億美元的現金。

It's anything on top of that, we might actually look at that as an opportunity to bring down or draw down the pension contribution, that $1.6 billion in 2018.

除此之外，我們實際上可能會將其視為減少或提取退休金繳款（2018 年 16 億美元）的機會。

That will come from Sam Pearlstein with Wells Fargo Securities.

這將來自富國銀行證券公司的薩姆·珀爾斯坦(Sam Pearlstein)。

Can I just follow-up on some of the last couple of questions with regards to pension.

我可以跟進一下最後幾個有關退休金的問題嗎？

And I know you're not guiding '18, let alone '19.

我知道你不會指導 18 歲，更不用說 19 歲了。

But that '18, '19, $10 billion cash from operations, there are a lot of reasons why next year is relatively below your 3% to 5% long-term growth.

但 18 年、19 年營運產生的 100 億美元現金，有許多原因導致明年相對低於 3% 至 5% 的長期成長率。

But shouldn't that recover in terms of revenues in 2019?

但 2019 年的收入不應該恢復嗎？

It would just seem like there isn't a lot that would be a headwind.

看起來似乎沒有太多阻力。

If anything, you should do better in '19 than '18 from a cash perspective in terms of -- if you can somehow talk about either the pension contributions from '18 to '19 and think about it and the CapEx trends just so that we can think about that in terms of free cash flow.

如果有的話，從現金角度來看，你在19 年應該比18 年做得更好——如果你能以某種方式談論從18 年到19 年的養老金繳款，並考慮一下它和資本支出趨勢，以便我們可以從自由現金流的角度來思考這一點。

Yes.

是的。

So we've talked about, Sam, the pension contributions.

薩姆，我們已經討論了退休金繳款。

We've teed up $1.6 billion this year.

今年我們已經準備了 16 億美元。

We've said it's $3.3 billion over 2018 -- excuse -- yes, 2018 and '19, which would imply a $1.7 billion required contribution in 2019.

我們已經說過，2018 年需要繳納 33 億美元（請原諒），是的，2018 年和 19 年需要繳納 33 億美元，這意味著 2019 年需要繳納 17 億美元。

So that is increasing a little bit there.

所以這個數字正在增加一點。

I'll tell you, I don't like as a daily course to provide 3-year guidance on much of anything.

我告訴你，我不喜歡將任何事情作為日常課程提供 3 年指導。

So we want to make sure when we talk those numbers, those are something that we can actually achieve.

因此，我們希望確保當我們談論這些數字時，這些數字是我們真正能夠實現的。

So I hope there is opportunity to do better than that.

所以我希望有機會做得更好。

If you looked at the last 3-year goal, we did better than what we came out with in the early, was it 2014 time frame?

如果你看一下最近 3 年的目標，我們比早期的目標做得更好，是 2014 年的時間範圍嗎？

We just have to make that happen.

我們只需要做到這一點。

And we'll see if what's going on in that regard for the next couple of years.

我們將看看未來幾年這方面會發生什麼。

We do have a little bit of higher capital expenditures over the next couple of years, which I don't know if that's something you'd be considering.

未來幾年我們的資本支出確實會增加一些，我不知道您是否會考慮這一點。

But probably $150 million, maybe $200 million at its peak higher than this year.

但高峰時可能比今年高出 1.5 億美元，甚至 2 億美元。

And you should think of a lot of that as some of the new business wins we've just had at Missiles and Fire Control that I talked about require some capital improvements and some additional facilities and equipment there.

你應該考慮很多，因為我們剛剛在飛彈和火控部門取得的一些新業務勝利需要一些資本改進和一些額外的設施和設備。

And you may have seen that we're also building a fairly large facility out of our Space Systems company in Denver to accommodate greater capacity and greater-sized satellites going forward because we think that's where the market's headed.

您可能已經看到，我們還在丹佛的太空系統公司建造了一個相當大的設施，以容納未來更大的容量和更大尺寸的衛星，因為我們認為這就是市場的發展方向。

So sort of those higher pension a little bit, more than in '18 and maybe a little bit of CapEx is some of the headwind that we're seeing.

因此，退休金比 18 年有所提高，也許還有一點資本支出，這是我們看到的一些逆風。

But other than that, I don't -- I think it should sort of follow suit as you said.

但除此之外，我不會——我認為它應該像你說的那樣。

I think we've come up on the top of the hour here, so I will turn it back over to Marillyn for final thoughts.

我想我們現在已經到了最重要的時刻，所以我會把它轉回給瑪麗蓮以供最後的想法。

Thank you again for joining us on the call today.

再次感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。

I want to end by reiterating that the corporation had another solid quarter.

最後，我想重申該公司又一個穩健的季度。

And with our strong portfolio and robust backlog, we continue to be well positioned to deliver substantial value to our customers and to our stockholders.

憑藉我們強大的產品組合和強勁的積壓訂單，我們將繼續處於有利位置，為我們的客戶和股東提供巨大的價值。

John, that concludes our call today.

約翰，我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference.

女士們、先生們，你們的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。