科磊 (KLAC) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Welcome to KLA-Tencor's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call.

午安.歡迎參加 KLA-Tencor 2018 財年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Ed Lockwood with KLA-Tencor Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

KLA-Tencor 投資者關係部門的 Ed Lockwood，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Christine. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our conference call. Joining me on our call today are Rick Wallace, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。大家下午好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Rick Wallace；以及我們的財務長 Bren Higgins。

We're here to discuss quarterly results for the period ended September 30, 2017. We released these results this afternoon at 1:15 Pacific Time. If you haven't seen the release, you can find it on our website at www.kla-tencor.com. A simulcast of this call will be available on demand following its completion on the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們在此討論截至 2017 年 9 月 30 日的季度業績。我們於今天下午太平洋時間 1:15 公佈了這些結果。如果您還沒有看到新聞稿，您可以在我們的網站 www.kla-tencor.com 上找到它。本次電話會議結束後，我們將在網站的投資者關係部分按需提供同步直播。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented in a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release and in the Investor presentation on our website. There, you'll also find the calendar of future investor events, presentations and conferences as well as links to KLA-Tencor's SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2017. In those filings, you'll find descriptions of risk factors that could impact our future results. As you know, our future results are subject to risks. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on this call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA-Tencor cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務結果的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現。在今天的收益新聞稿和我們網站上的投資者介紹中可以找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的詳細對帳。您還可以在這裡找到未來投資者活動、演示和會議的日曆以及 KLA-Tencor 的 SEC 文件的鏈接，包括我們截至 2017 年 6 月 30 日的 10-K 表格年度報告。在這些文件中，您會發現可能影響我們未來結果的風險因素的描述。如您所知，我們的未來業績面臨風險。任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述，都受這些風險的影響，而 KLA-Tencor 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述會成真。我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有很大差異。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給里克。

Thanks, Ed. I'm pleased to report that KLA-Tencor delivered record shipments, revenue and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share in the September quarter, the results of continued successful execution of our long-term strategies and demonstrating once again the critical nature of process control in enabling growth and innovation in the semiconductor industry.

謝謝，艾德。我很高興地報告，KLA-Tencor 在 9 月季度實現了創紀錄的出貨量、收入和非 GAAP 每股攤薄收益，這是我們繼續成功執行長期策略的結果，再次證明了製程控制在促進半導體產業成長和創新方面的關鍵性。

Q3 results featured strong demand from memory customers and from the Japan and China regions. New orders in September were a record for the third calendar quarter, and new orders have now totaled approximately $3 billion on a year-to-date basis in calendar 2017. Coupled with our market leadership and supported by strong backlog, these results point to continued momentum of growth for KLA-Tencor and position the company to deliver new highs for revenue and earnings and strong stockholder returns in 2017 and 2018. This is a very exciting time for the company given our market and technology leadership. The road ahead features more opportunity for the industry, our company and for our stockholders than ever before.

第三季的業績顯示，來自記憶體客戶以及日本和中國地區的需求強勁。9 月的新訂單創下了第三季的新紀錄，2017 年年初至今的新訂單總額已達到約 30 億美元。加上我們的市場領導地位和強勁的積壓訂單的支持，這些結果表明 KLA-Tencor 將繼續保持增長勢頭，並使公司在 2017 年和 2018 年實現收入和盈利的新高以及強勁的股東回報。鑑於我們在市場和技術上的領先地位，這對公司來說是一個非常令人興奮的時刻。未來的道路為產業、我們的公司和我們的股東提供了比以往更多的機會。

Before I turn the call over to Bren, I'd like to take a few minutes to highlight how our strategies for customer success, innovation, productivity and talent are helping to drive KLA-Tencor's record-setting performance today and are building a solid foundation for continued growth in the future. The first and most enduring objective for KLA-Tencor is customer success enabled by the use of our process control solutions. To achieve this goal, we focus on partnering with our customers to help empower their growth. We drive engagement to enable us to develop differentiated solutions for our customers, most complex yield challenges in the current node and the anticipated yield challenges in future technologies.

在將電話轉給布倫之前，我想花幾分鐘時間強調我們的客戶成功、創新、生產力和人才策略如何幫助推動 KLA-Tencor 今天創紀錄的業績，並為未來的持續成長奠定堅實的基礎。KLA-Tencor 的首要且最持久的目標是透過使用我們的製程控制解決方案來幫助客戶取得成功。為了實現這一目標，我們專注於與客戶合作，幫助他們實現成長。我們推動參與，以便我們能夠為客戶開發差異化解決方案，應對當前節點中最複雜的產量挑戰以及未來技術中預期的產量挑戰。

The rapid growth of our China business is an example of how successful execution of collaboration and customer success strategies are fueling growth. China's investment and their domestic semiconductor industry is driving an inflection for the overall WFE market, and KLA-Tencor's market position in China is strong both in terms of process control adoption and market share. Business levels in this region are expected to grow significantly in calendar year 2017, and this momentum should continue through 2018.

我們中國業務的快速成長就是成功實施合作和客戶成功策略如何推動成長的一個例子。中國的投資及其國內半導體產業正在推動整個WFE市場的變化，而KLA-Tencor在中國的市場地位無論在製程控制採用率或市場份額方面都十分強勁。預計該地區的業務水準將在 2017 年大幅成長，並且這一勢頭將持續到 2018 年。

The focus on innovation at KLA-Tencor is tightly integrated with our customer success efforts. We are investing in a very high level to drive innovation in process control and deliver a steady stream of advanced solutions and services that will enable our customers to succeed with their most critical technologies. Today, we are developing 5 major technology platforms, 2 of which are targeted specifically at memory, and we're modeling higher process control adoption and record revenue from memory customers in 2017.

KLA-Tencor 對創新的關注與我們的客戶成功努力緊密結合。我們正在進行高水準的投資，以推動製程控制創新，並提供源源不絕的先進解決方案和服務，使我們的客戶能夠憑藉其最關鍵的技術取得成功。如今，我們正在開發 5 個主要技術平台，其中 2 個專門針對內存，我們正在模擬更高的過程控制採用率，並在 2017 年從內存客戶那裡獲得創紀錄的收入。

For example, growth from memory customers is a key factor in the record business levels we're experiencing in our bare wafer inspection and metrology products. Wafer manufacturers have been adding new capacity to ramp wafer demand, and IC customers are moving to higher-layer accounts and increasingly more complex architectures. In this environment, our new bare wafer products are needed to support more stringent wafer flatness and process tool cleanliness specifications in advanced technologies.

例如，來自記憶體客戶的成長是我們在裸晶圓檢測和計量產品中創下業務記錄的關鍵因素。晶圓製造商一直在增加新產能以增加晶圓需求，而 IC 客戶則正在轉向更高層級的客戶和日益複雜的架構。在這種環境下，需要我們的新裸晶圓產品來支援先進技術中更嚴格的晶圓平整度和製程工具清潔度規範。

I'm also excited to report that our Gen 5 broadband plasma wafer inspection platform continues to gain momentum in the marketplace. We're seeing increasing utilization of installed tools with our advanced logic and foundry customers where the unique value of Gen 5's illumination wavelength range is being demonstrated on 7-nanometer discovery and EUV print check applications. Based on these results and customer's feedback, we expect Gen 5 to continue to support customers in development of 7-nanometer technology, and we see it playing an even larger role on the development and ramp of the 5-nanometer node.

我還很高興地報告，我們的第五代寬頻等離子晶圓檢測平台在市場上繼續獲得發展勢頭。我們看到，我們的先進邏輯和代工客戶對已安裝工具的利用率正在不斷提高，其中 Gen 5 照明波長範圍的獨特價值正在 7 奈米發現和 EUV 列印檢查應用上展示。根據這些結果和客戶的回饋，我們預計 Gen 5 將繼續支援客戶開發 7 奈米技術，並且我們認為它在 5 奈米節點的開發和提升中發揮更大的作用。

A third component of our strategic objectives is productivity and the commitment to operational excellence. Through continuous execution of these strategies, our growth and market leadership results in industry-leading margins and cash flow and provides the resources for future investment and ongoing strong returns to stockholders.

我們的策略目標的第三個組成部分是生產力和對卓越營運的承諾。透過持續執行這些策略，我們的成長和市場領導地位帶來了業界領先的利潤率和現金流，並為未來投資和持續強勁的股東回報提供了資源。

And finally, our focus on talent. KLA-Tencor's talent initiatives are centered on attracting, developing and inspiring our global workforce. We recruit top talent worldwide from experienced candidates as well as high-caliber graduates from leading universities. Ultimately, the success of our execution on talent strategies lie at the core of our long-term success.

最後，我們關注人才。KLA-Tencor 的人才計畫以吸引、培養和激勵我們的全球員工為中心。我們從經驗豐富的候選人以及一流大學的高素質畢業生中招募全球頂尖人才。最終，人才策略的成功執行是我們長期成功的核心。

So to summarize. Clearly, this is an exciting time for KLA-Tencor with the company reporting another quarter of record results in Q3 and demonstrating the strength of our strategic objectives in an environment of very strong overall industry demand. Looking ahead to 2018, given our anticipated backlog entering the year and the momentum we are experiencing today, the stage is set for another outstanding record-setting year for KLA-Tencor.

總結一下。顯然，對於 KLA-Tencor 來說這是一個激動人心的時刻，公司在第三季度報告了另一個創紀錄的業績，並在整體行業需求非常強勁的環境下展示了我們戰略目標的實力。展望 2018 年，考慮到我們預計今年的積壓訂單量以及我們今天的發展勢頭，KLA-Tencor 將迎來另一個創紀錄的輝煌年份。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Bren for his comments. Bren?

現在，我將把電話交給布倫徵求他的意見。布倫？

Thanks, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone. As Rick highlighted in his opening remarks, the September quarter featured another record results for the company driven by memory demand and solid operational execution for KLA-Tencor.

謝謝，里克，大家下午好。正如 Rick 在開場白中所強調的那樣，在記憶體需求和 KLA-Tencor 穩健的營運執行的推動下，9 月季度公司再次創下了創紀錄的業績。

Shipments were a record $977 million, revenue was at the top end of the range and GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share each came in above the range of guidance for the quarter. This result was driven by continued strong demand across our product portfolio with particular strength from memory, wafer and captive mask shop customers.

出貨量達到創紀錄的 9.77 億美元，營收處於最高水平，GAAP 與非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益均高於本季的指導範圍。這一結果得益於我們產品組合的持續強勁需求，尤其是來自記憶體、晶圓和專屬掩模店客戶的強勁需求。

Our manufacturing and service organizations continue to deliver strong operational leverage on our revenue growth with incremental gross margins in excess of 80% over the last 2 quarters.

我們的製造和服務部門繼續為我們的營收成長提供強大的營運槓桿，過去兩個季度的增量毛利率超過 80%。

Revenue and earnings per share were also records in Q3. Revenue was $970 million, and GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.78. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.80. In our press release, you'll find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. With the exception of when I explicitly refer to GAAP results, my commentary will be focused on the non-GAAP results, which exclude the adjustments covered in the press release.

第三季的營收和每股盈餘也創下了新高。營收為 9.7 億美元，每股 GAAP 攤薄收益為 1.78 美元。非公認會計準則每股攤薄收益為 1.80 美元。在我們的新聞稿中，您會發現 GAAP 與非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘的對帳。除明確提及 GAAP 結果外，我的評論將集中於非 GAAP 結果，其中不包括新聞稿中涵蓋的調整。

Now turning to highlights for the September quarter demand environment in terms of shipments. Foundry was 40% of shipments in September driven by an anticipated broadening of the customer base for investment in 10-nanometer production and 7-nanometer development and by continued investment in legacy technology nodes. We are currently modeling foundry shipments to be approximately 20% of the total in the December quarter.

現在來談談 9 月季度出貨量需求環境的亮點。9 月代工出貨量佔 40%，這得益於預計 10 奈米生產和 7 奈米開發投資客戶群將擴大，以及對傳統技術節點的持續投資。我們目前預計 12 月季度代工廠出貨量約佔總量的 20%。

Memory was 46% of shipments with deliveries evenly split between DRAM and NAND. We are currently modeling shipments to memory customers to be about 67% of the total in the December quarter with NAND representing about 55% of the memory mix.

記憶體佔出貨量的 46%，其中 DRAM 和 NAND 平均分配。我們目前預計，12 月季度對記憶體客戶的出貨量約佔總出貨量的 67%，其中 NAND 約佔記憶體組合的 55%。

Logic was 14% of shipments in September and is currently forecasted to be approximately flat in the December quarter.

9 月邏輯晶片出貨量佔 14%，目前預測 12 月季度將基本持平。

Regarding the approximate distribution of shipments by product group. Wafer inspection was 46% of shipments; patterning was 30%, patterning includes shipments from our reticle inspection business; non-semi, which includes our back-end component inspection business, was approximately 3%; and service was 21% of shipments.

關於按產品組劃分的出貨量大致分佈。晶圓檢驗佔出貨量的46%；圖案化佔 30%，圖案化包括來自我們的光罩檢測業務的出貨量；非半導體（包括我們的後端組件檢測業務）約為 3%；和服務佔出貨量的21%。

Looking forward, we are modeling December quarter shipments to be in the range of $945 million to $1.025 billion. At this point, we expect shipments for the first half of calendar year 2018 to grow in the low single digits compared with the second half of 2017 and be roughly equally balanced half-over-half over the course of the year. This outlook is strengthened since our last earnings call in July.

展望未來，我們預計 12 月季度的出貨量將在 9.45 億美元至 10.25 億美元之間。目前，我們預計 2018 年上半年的出貨量與 2017 年下半年相比將成長低個位數，並且全年出貨量將大致維持一半對一半的平衡。自從我們 7 月上次收益電話會議以來，這一前景得到了加強。

Turning now to the income statement. Revenue was $970 million in September, finishing at the top of the range of guidance, and we expect revenue to be in the range of $930 million to $990 million in the December quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was 63.7%, above the range of expectations for the quarter. The stronger-than-expected gross margins in the quarter were due to a number of favorable factors in the systems business, including the favorable product mix and better-than-modeled parts expense and labor utilization in the service business. Looking forward to the December quarter, we expect non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 63% to 64% as we expect a similar product and service mix quarter-to-quarter with commensurate cost dynamics in our manufacturing service operations.

現在來看損益表。9 月的營收為 9.7 億美元，達到預期範圍的最高值，我們預計 12 月季度的營收將在 9.3 億美元至 9.9 億美元之間。非公認會計準則毛利率為63.7%，高於本季的預期範圍。本季毛利率高於預期，這得益於系統業務的一系列有利因素，包括有利的產品組合以及服務業務中好於模型的零件費用和勞動力利用率。展望 12 月季度，我們預計非 GAAP 毛利率將在 63% 至 64% 之間，因為我們預計每季的產品和服務組合將類似，並且我們的製造服務業務的成本動態也將相應。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $252 million in September, and non-GAAP operating margin was 37.8%. This operating margin result is in line with our updated target model for annual revenue levels in the $3.6 billion to $3.9 billion range that we outlined earlier in the year. We are modeling operating expense levels to be approximately $260 million in the December quarter due to the expensing of significant prototype materials and other expenses related to technology development programs targeting reticle process control for EUV high-volume manufacturing applications. Given company revenue expectations for CY '18, we are currently sizing operating expense levels next year to be approximately $250 million per quarter, consistent with our public operating model.

9 月非公認會計準則營業費用總額為 2.52 億美元，非公認會計準則營業利益率為 37.8%。這項營業利潤率結果與我們今年稍早概述的 36 億美元至 39 億美元範圍內的年度收入水準更新目標模型相一致。我們預計 12 月季度的營運費用水準約為 2.6 億美元，這是由於大量原型材料的費用以及與針對 EUV 大批量製造應用的光罩工藝控制的技術開發計劃相關的其他費用。考慮到公司對 2018 年財務年度的收入預期，我們目前將明年的營運費用水準定為每季約 2.5 億美元，這與我們的公開營運模式一致。

Our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 17% in Q3 and below the guided rate of 20% for the quarter, reflecting the higher mix of revenue from products developed or manufactured offshore and certain other discrete items impacting the tax rate. For the December quarter, we expect the tax rate of 18% due to similar factors.

我們第三季的非公認會計準則有效稅率為 17%，低於本季 20% 的指導稅率，這反映了來自海外開發或製造的產品的收入組合較高以及影響稅率的某些其他單獨項目。對於 12 月季度，由於類似因素，我們預計稅率為 18%。

For calendar '18, we are adjusting our long-term planning tax rate down to 20% largely due to the anticipated revenue mix in the year. We intend to update our tax rate guidance periodically based on the revenue expectations. Finally, non-GAAP net income for the September quarter was $284 million, and we ended the quarter with 158 million diluted shares outstanding.

對於 2018 年，我們將長期規劃稅率下調至 20%，這主要是因為預計今年的收入結構。我們打算根據收入預期定期更新我們的稅率指引。最後，9 月季度的非 GAAP 淨收入為 2.84 億美元，本季結束時我們擁有 1.58 億股稀釋流通股。

Turning now to the balance sheet and our cash flow statement. Cash and investments ended the quarter at $3.1 billion, an increase of $40 million compared with the June quarter. Cash from operations was $374 million in September, and free cash flow was $358 million. We paid $156 million towards our outstanding term loan in the quarter and expect to retire our outstanding $250 million 2.375% 3-year senior notes upon maturity in November. Finally, during Q3, we paid an aggregate of $100 million in regular quarterly dividends and dividend equivalents for fully vested restricted stock units.

現在來看資產負債表和現金流量表。本季末，現金和投資總額為 31 億美元，較 6 月季度增加 4,000 萬美元。9 月經營現金流為 3.74 億美元，自由現金流為 3.58 億美元。我們在本季支付了 1.56 億美元的未償還定期貸款，並預計在 11 月到期時償還未償還的 2.5 億美元 2.375% 3 年期優先票據。最後，在第三季度，我們為完全歸屬的限制性股票單位支付了總計 1 億美元的定期季度股息和股息等價物。

In conclusion, today's results reflect our continued market leadership, the critical nature of process control in all customer segments and our industry-leading business model. This, fueled by expected strong total backlog as of the end of the calendar year, position the company for continued growth in the strong and stable overall WFE industry environment. Given consensus expectations for WFE growth in the mid- to high single digits next year, our expectations for another year of strong memory investment, improving process control intensity in memory, contributions from new products and continued high single-digit annual growth in services, we are modeling total revenue in the $4 billion range in 2018. Against this revenue backdrop, operating performance is expected to be in line with the $3.9 billion to $4.2 billion annual revenue range outlined in our public business model.

總之，今天的結果反映了我們持續的市場領導地位、所有客戶群中過程控制的關鍵性以及我們行業領先的商業模式。受今年年底總積壓訂單量強勁的推動，該公司預計將在強勁而穩定的整體 WFE 行業環境中繼續實現成長。鑑於市場普遍預期明年 WFE 的成長率將達到中高個位數，我們預計今年內存投資將保持強勁，內存製程控制強度將提高，新產品將帶來貢獻，服務業務也將持續保持高個位數年增長率，因此我們預計 2018 年 WFE 的總收入將在 40 億美元左右。在此收入背景下，營運績效預計將與我們公開商業模式中概述的 39 億美元至 42 億美元的年收入範圍一致。

With that, to conclude, our guidance for the December quarter is shipments in the range of $945 million to $1.025 billion, revenue between $930 million and $990 million and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.58 to $1.82 per share as well as non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.59 to $1.83 per share. The December quarter EPS guidance range assumes an 18% tax rate in the quarter.

總而言之，我們對 12 月季度的預期是：出貨量在 9.45 億美元至 10.25 億美元之間，收入在 9.3 億美元至 9.9 億美元之間，GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 1.58 美元至 1.82 美元，非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 1.59 美元至 1.83 美元。12 月季度每股收益指引範圍假設該季度​​的稅率為 18%。

This concludes my remarks. I will now turn the call back over to Ed to begin the Q&A.

我的發言到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給 Ed，開始問答環節。

Okay. Thank you, Bren. At this point, we'll open the call for questions. (Operator Instructions) All right. Christine, we're ready for the first question.

好的。謝謝你，布倫。現在，我們將開始提問。（操作員指示）好的。克里斯汀，我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Farhan Ahmad from Crédit Suisse.

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。

My first question is on the outlook for 2018. Can you just talk about what segments have strengthened since your last outlook? And in terms of foundry versus memory, where do you see growth and where do you see kind of flattish?

我的第一個問題是關於2018年的展望。您能否談談自上次展望以來哪些領域得到了加強？就代工和記憶體而言，您認為哪些方面會成長，哪些方面會持平？

Yes, Farhan. So I think since last -- it's Bren. So since the last call, certainly our expectations for next year has strengthened over the last 3 months, and we're seeing that in our outward forecast, which I provided some details to you in this call. I think when we look at the data, I think with the investments that are happening in 3D NAND, I think we still continue to expect that to be very strong. DRAM also looks like it's probably stronger now than what we thought a few months ago, and I think foundry/logic is flattish. I think logic will be slightly higher. But overall, I think the foundry/logic segment will be largely flattish and probably more second-half weighted as we see it flow through our shipment profile over the course of the year.

是的，法爾漢。所以我認為從上次開始——就是布倫。因此，自上次電話會議以來，我們對明年的預期在過去 3 個月中肯定有所加強，我們在外部預測中也看到了這一點，我在這次電話會議中向您提供了一些細節。我認為，當我們查看數據時，我認為隨著 3D NAND 的投資，我們仍然預計它會非常強勁。DRAM 現在看起來可能比我們幾個月前想像的要強勁，而且我認為代工/邏輯市場表現平平。我覺得邏輯性會稍微高一點。但總體而言，我認為代工/邏輯部分將基本持平，並且可能在下半年佔比更大，因為我們會看到它在全年的出貨量概況中流動。

And then one question on the print check. Have you guys sized what could be the potential opportunity for print check? And what is the customer interest that you are seeing right now?

然後是關於列印支票的一個問題。你們是否已經評估過列印支票的潛在機會是什麼？您現在看到的客戶興趣是什麼？

Farhan, you mean specifically for EUV?

Farhan，您指的是 EUV 嗎？

Yes, specifically for EUV in terms of print check technology, how large that market could be.

是的，具體來說，就 EUV 印刷檢查技術而言，這個市場有多大。

Yes. Okay. Well, let's start with development and then think about HVM. For development, there's a lot of work. In fact, a fair amount of capacity of the Gen 5 systems are being used for print check and development. So I'd say that I don't think it consumes a tool right now, but it consumes part of the use case of a tool for us. When we get into HVM, it gets a little different. It depends on how big we think the adoption of EUV is and when. But we would expect that, that market grows because of just essentially the available technology for inspecting reticles. And so that will drive the print check market higher because there won't be an actinic tool for in-fab reticle for the first wave of tools. So I think you'd see it grow in size from them. We haven't sized it exactly, but I think for every company that adopts EUV in production, as the EUV scales, the applications for print check will grow commensurate. So maybe it gets to a couple tools per customer that are driving that.

是的。好的。好吧，讓我們從開發開始，然後再考慮 HVM。為了發展，還有很多工作要做。事實上，Gen 5 系統的相當一部分容量正用於列印檢查和開發。所以我想說，我認為它現在不會消耗工具，但它會消耗我們工具的部分用例。當我們進入 HVM 時，情況就變得有點不同了。這取決於我們認為 EUV 的採用規模有多大以及何時採用。但我們預計，由於可用於檢查光罩的技術的出現，該市場將會成長。這將推動印刷支票市場走高，因為第一波工具中不會有用於晶圓廠內光罩的光化工具。所以我認為你會看到它的規模不斷擴大。我們還沒有確切地確定其規模，但我認為對於每一家在生產中採用 EUV 的公司來說，隨著 EUV 規模的擴大，印刷檢查的應用也會相應增長。因此，也許每個客戶都需要一些工具來推動這項進程。

Your next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Just kind of follows up to the last question and based on some of your prepared commentary, it looks like you guys have seen some momentum on your reticle inspection platforms. And we've heard that at 7-nanometer EUV mask inspection, it's Teron platform plus Gen 5 print check. For 5-nanometer and below, though, it's kind of interesting because I think at the recent SPIE technical symposium, I think the KLA team actually talked about a multi-beam e-beam platform for EUV reticle inspection targeted at 5 nanometers and below. Can you guys just give us some more insights on this new multi-beam tool that you're developing? What are the benefits versus current generation? When is it going to be available? I know 5 nanometers is still a few years away, but I would imagine maybe sometime in 2019? Any color there would be great.

只是跟進最後一個問題，根據你們準備好的一些評論，看起來你們已經在光罩檢查平台上看到了一些發展勢頭。我們聽說，在 7 奈米 EUV 遮罩檢查中，它是 Teron 平台加上 Gen 5 印刷檢查。不過，對於 5 奈米及以下來說，這很有趣，因為我認為在最近的 SPIE 技術研討會上，我認為 KLA 團隊實際上討論了針對 5 奈米及以下的 EUV 光罩檢查的多光束電子束平台。你們能否向我們詳細介紹一下你們正在開發的這種新型多光束工具？與當前世代相比有哪些優勢？什麼時候可以投入使用？我知道 5 奈米還需要幾年的時間，但我想也許在 2019 年的某個時候？任何顏色都很棒。

Sure, Harlan. So the strategy for reticle inspection, as you mentioned, Teron right now is serving the need. And I think for customers, as they implement 7, whatever degree, 7 is going to be implemented, Teron with the combination with the Gen 5 for print check is the most economical and efficient solution for our customers. But you're right to point out that a 5-nanometer, our view was we will need more sensitivity on the reticle. Rather than design an inspection tool -- an e-beam inspection tool and modify a wafer tool and make it for reticle, we decided a couple years ago, several years ago, to target specifically the reticle market with a platform optimized for reticle inspection and being developed by a fair number of players from our platform that develop reticle tools for us. So we think we have a lot of expertise. We feel very good about that progress of that, and we are targeting introduction of that tool in the 2019 time frame to intercept 5-nanometer.

當然，哈蘭。因此，正如您所提到的，Teron 目前針對光罩檢查的策略正在滿足這一需求。我認為對於客戶來說，當他們實施 7 時，無論程度如何，7 都將實施，Teron 與 Gen 5 的組合進行列印檢查對於我們的客戶來說是最經濟、最有效的解決方案。但您正確地指出，對於 5 奈米，我們的觀點是我們需要更高的標線靈敏度。幾年前，我們決定專門針對光罩市場，開發一個針對光罩檢查進行優化的平台，該平台由我們平台上的相當多為我們開發光罩工具的參與者開發，而不是設計一個檢查工具（電子束檢查工具）並修改晶圓工具使其適用於光罩。所以我們認為我們擁有豐富的專業知識。我們對這一進展感到非常滿意，我們的目標是在 2019 年期間推出該工具，以攔截 5 奈米技術。

Hey, Harlan, it's Bren. One other point I'll make, and I said this is in prepared remarks, but one of the uplifts that we're seeing, the onetime uplift we're seeing to our operating expenses here in the December quarter, is driven by some prototype investment that we're expensing for this program. So Rick's characterization of timing seems to make sense and program's progressing according to plan.

嘿，哈蘭，我是布倫。我要提出的另一點，我說過這是在準備好的發言中，但我們看到的其中一個提升，即我們在 12 月季度看到的運營費用的一次性提升，是由我們為這個項目支出的一些原型投資推動的。因此，里克對時間的描述似乎是有道理的，而且程序正在按計劃進行。

Great. And then your commentary on China suggests that you guys are seeing some of the activity on some of the China domestic memory R&D pilot programs. I think they're trying to show up in your pipeline. Are you going to be shipping some of these tools here this quarter? Or is this more kind of the first half of next year? And secondly, on the domestic China business, you guys have always said that process control intensity, in general, is about 100 basis points higher versus the mainstream guys. Is that kind of how it's playing out?

偉大的。然後，您對中國的評論表明，您看到了中國國內一些內存研發試點項目的一些活動。我認為他們正試圖出現在你的管道中。您打算本季運送一些這樣的工具到這裡嗎？或者這更像是明年上半年？其次，關於中國國內業務，你們一直說，過程控制強度總體上比主流公司高出約 100 個基點。事情就是這樣發生的嗎？

So Harlan, on your first part of your question, so for the new memory projects and there's about 3 significant ones that we're tracking, we booked some orders back in the June quarter for a DRAM project that we will start to ship at the end of this quarter, right at the tail end of this quarter for installation into next quarter. The -- we also booked in this quarter significant orders for a 3D NAND project, and so we'll see those orders probably ship out towards the June quarter time frame. So to answer your question, we will see that business start to come to the P&L next year. This year was more memory weighted as I described and probably a little over double in terms of the bookings from -- in China versus last year. And as we look at 2018, the order profile looks like it's flat to up from there. So a significant amount of activity there. Obviously, based on success with these Phase 1 investments, we play a pretty significant role early on as they're ramping the fabs. And so process control intensity is higher. Share tends to be better also because of the -- just the experience we can bring to help these customers navigate their yield and ramp these fabs quickly. And obviously, in memory, being able to progress the technology road map matters a lot to the economics of these projects.

哈蘭，關於你問題的第一部分，對於新的內存項目，我們正在跟踪大約 3 個重要的項目，我們在 6 月份季度預訂了一些 DRAM 項目的訂單，我們將在本季度末開始發貨，就在本季度末，以便在下個季度安裝。本季我們也接到了 3D NAND 專案的大量訂單，因此這些訂單可能會在 6 月季度出貨。因此，回答您的問題，我們將看到該業務明年開始進入損益表。正如我所描述的，今年的記憶權重更大，與去年相比，來自中國的預訂量可能增加了一倍以上。展望 2018 年，訂單情況看起來是持平甚至上升的。因此那裡有大量的活動。顯然，基於第一階段投資的成功，我們在他們擴大晶圓廠規模的早期就發揮了相當重要的作用。因此過程控制強度較高。份額往往會更好，因為我們可以帶來經驗，幫助這些客戶控制產量並快速提高這些晶圓廠的產量。顯然，在記憶中，能夠推進技術路線圖對於這些項目的經濟效益至關重要。

But just to add to that, I think -- remember the greenfield, in particular, these are not at-scale fabs. So we're at the front end where the intensity is higher as Bren was saying. I think the other advantage we will have in the memory market in China is some of the platforms that we've been developing for memory will come to maturity in time to support those, so we'll see process control intensity higher. But the investors in China and the fab managers are very focused on efficiency in all their investments, so we don't see them necessarily higher. It's more that the fabs are subscale and at the beginning of the ramp.

但我想補充一點——請記住，特別是綠地，這些都不是大規模的晶圓廠。因此，正如布倫所說的那樣，我們處於強度更高的前端。我認為我們在中國記憶體市場的另一個優勢是，我們為記憶體開發的一些平台將及時成熟以支援這些平台，因此我們將看到更高的製程控制強度。但中國的投資者和晶圓廠管理者非常注重所有投資的效率，因此我們並不認為它們一定會更高。更重要的是，這些晶圓廠規模尚小，且處於發展初期。

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

First question on gross margins. Can you walk through what's driving the uplift in the December quarter? Is that simply just the greater revenues? And as you think to 2018, you outlined gross margin in line with your target model, 62%, 63%. Though if I look back in the last 4, 5, 6 quarters, you definitely hover around 63%, if not higher. So curious what we should be thinking about mix-wise that might drive that to the mid-point of your target model or whether you're just being conservative a bit.

第一個問題是關於毛利率的。您能否解釋一下推動 12 月季度成長的因素是什麼？這只是更高的收入嗎？當您展望 2018 年時，您根據目標模型概述了毛利率，即 62%、63%。不過，如果我回顧過去 4、5、6 個季度，這一比例肯定徘徊在 63% 左右，甚至更高。所以我很好奇我們應該如何考慮混合，這可能會推動它達到目標模型的中間點，或者你只是有點保守。

Yes, on the last part first, C.J., I think that as we look at next year and look at the expected mix of business, we're likely going to see sustaining tailwinds that we've experienced in gross margin and we'll see that continue into next year. So as I'm modeling next year, I'm modeling it between 63% to may be as high as 64% over the course of the year. So pretty -- I think it continues, and what's driving it is a lot of the same factors. I mean, clearly, the product positioning and the differentiation and value we're adding to customers is playing out in the product pricing. I think the introduction of new products over the last 12 months or so -- the engineering execution has been great, so we've been able to climb up the cost curve pretty quickly on warranty and installation and some of those kinds of things. We've been able to get a fair amount of leverage out of our service business as we've added tools into Korea and Taiwan. We can leverage the resources pretty well. So all in all, I think there's a number of factors, and I think that they're fairly sustaining as we progress into next year.

是的，首先關於最後一部分，C.J.，我認為，當我們展望明年並展望預期的業務組合時，我們很可能會看到我們在毛利率方面經歷的持續順風，並且我們會看到這種趨勢持續到明年。因此，當我對明年進行建模時，我預測全年成長率將在 63% 到 64% 之間。非常漂亮——我認為它會繼續下去，並且推動它的是許多相同的因素。我的意思是，很明顯，產品定位以及我們為客戶增加的差異化和價值都在產品定價中反映出來了。我認為過去 12 個月左右推出的新產品——工程執行非常出色，因此我們能夠在保固、安裝和諸如此類的事情上相當快地提高成本曲線。隨著我們為韓國和台灣地區添加工具，我們能夠從服務業務中獲得相當大的槓桿作用。我們可以很好地利用這些資源。總而言之，我認為有很多因素，而且我認為隨著我們進入明年，這些因素將具有相當的可持續性。

Very helpful. And I guess as my follow-up, if you think about the greenfield activity that's flowing through today, typically, that would be the ideal time for you guys in terms of process control intensity. So curious to hear your thoughts on what you're seeing both from a logic foundry perspective as well as from a memory perspective.

非常有幫助。我想作為我的後續問題，如果你想想今天正在進行的綠地活動，通常，就過程控制強度而言，這對你們來說是理想的時機。我很好奇想聽聽您對從邏輯代工廠角度和記憶體角度所看到的內容的看法。

Well, I think Rick talked about from a memory perspective and what we're seeing in China. I think for the established customers, I mean, to that point, I mean, there is a participation -- a higher level of participation as they outfit a new fab on the front end. And then over time, the customer will probably scale back as they ramp that fab, as we generally see across a fab ramp. China is unique. Rick talked about that. And on foundry/logic, I don't think that there's anything different. I think it sort of follows the same model. There's a fair amount of development activity that happens up front, and we participate above what the normal ramp level or the normal intensity levels are. And then over time as customers move from defect discovery to line monitoring, they tend to try to optimize a little bit more for fab productivity.

嗯，我認為里克是從記憶的角度以及我們在中國看到的情況來談論的。我認為對於老客戶來說，我的意思是，在這一點上，當他們在前端裝備新的晶圓廠時，他們的參與度會更高——參與度會更高。然後隨著時間的推移，客戶可能會縮減晶圓廠的規模，就像我們通常在晶圓廠規模擴大時看到的那樣。中國是獨一無二的。里克談到了這一點。就代工/邏輯而言，我認為沒有什麼不同。我認為它有點遵循相同的模型。前期有相當多的開發活動，我們的參與程度超出了正常的坡度水平或正常的強度水平。隨著時間的推移，當客戶從缺陷發現轉向線路監控時，他們往往會嘗試進一步優化晶圓廠的生產力。

Your next question comes from the line of Edwin Mok from Needham & Company.

您的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok。

So first, I guess, just kind of look a little longer term. I think you guys provided some color for 2018, including kind of outlook for second half of '18. Just curious, that's by a few quarters away. It seems like you have better visibility now than before. What gives you that better confidence? What's improving in visibility for you guys?

所以首先，我想，我們只需要看得更長遠。我認為你們為 2018 年提供了一些色彩，包括對 2018 年下半年的展望。只是好奇，那還差幾季。看起來你現在的能見度比以前更好了。什麼讓你更有信心？你們的知名度有什麼提升嗎？

Well, so the statements were about the shipment profile. And as we look at this point and we look at the shipment profile into the second half of the year, it looks like based on the backlog we're bringing into the year and our expectations for orders in the first half gives us pretty good views into shipments into the second half. So we feel, at least at this point, it looks reasonably balanced across the year. And we're in this range of about $1 billion of shipments plus or minus $50 million as we look at our plan over the next several quarters. So it's still a ways out, and things can change. But based on how customers are slotting and how we're planning our manufacturing operations, that's how it looks.

嗯，這些聲明是關於裝運情況的。當我們觀察這一點並觀察下半年的出貨情況時，我們發現，根據我們今年的積壓訂單以及對上半年訂單的預期，我們對下半年的出貨情況有相當好的預測。因此我們認為，至少目前來看，全年情況看起來相當平衡。從我們未來幾季的計畫來看，我們的出貨量大約在 10 億美元上下浮動 5,000 萬美元。所以這仍有出路，而且情況可能會改變。但根據客戶的安排和我們的製造業務規劃，情況就是這樣的。

Okay. That's fair. Second question I have is on the service side of the businesses. If I look at some of your peers and some of other equipment manufacturer, they're actually seeing pretty strong growth in service, double-digit kind of growth rate, which is higher than historical. Do you see that being possible for your service business? Or you think that kind of a mid-single digit is a reasonable growth rate for your service business?

好的。這很公平。我的第二個問題是關於業務的服務方面。如果我看一下你們的一些同行和其他一些設備製造商，他們實際上看到了服務方面相當強勁的增長，兩位數的增長率，高於歷史水平。您認為這對您的服務業務來說有可能嗎？或者您認為這種中位數個位數的成長率對於您的服務業務來說是合理的？

Well, service looks like in calendar '17 will grow about 10%. Now its historical growth rate has been about 8% if you go back to, let's say, 2000 or so and play that through. Now it grows every year, as it should, as the installed base is growing. So we are seeing an acceleration in service, and we were open with this in our last discussion of just our modeling for the business over the long run that we think service can maintain its historical growth rate. So we think service runs probably 7% to 9% over time. And part of what's driving it obviously is the growth of the installed base, but also the mature and legacy fabs and how they're running those fabs now to meet IoT and automotive demand and so on. So we're adding new capacity to some of those tools. They're running the tools harder, so they're running them longer, and so the contract and billable streams are nice. And one thing about our service business is it's about 70% to 75% service contract. So it's a very predictable stream that we can build our cost structure around and move forward with.

嗯，看起來 2017 年的服務業將成長約 10%。現在，如果回顧一下 2000 年左右的情況，其歷史成長率約為 8%。現在，它每年都在增長，這是理所當然的，因為安裝基數也在不斷增長。因此，我們看到服務業正在加速發展，我們在上次討論中就這一點持開放態度，從長遠來看，我們認為服務業可以保持其歷史成長率。因此我們認為服務運行率隨著時間的推移可能會增加 7% 到 9%。推動這一成長的部分原因顯然是安裝基數的成長，還有成熟和傳統的晶圓廠，以及他們現在如何運作這些晶圓廠以滿足物聯網和汽車需求等。因此，我們正在為其中一些工具增加新的容量。他們更賣力地運行這些工具，因此運行它們的時間更長，因此合約和計費流都很好。我們的服務業務中大約 70% 到 75% 是服務合約。因此，這是一個非常可預測的流程，我們可以圍繞它建立我們的成本結構並向前發展。

Your next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Can you remind us how you view process control intensity in memory going forward over the next couple of years? And I know you guys are working on a couple of initiatives in memory from a product development perspective. How big could the opportunity be with those initiatives over the next, say, 12 to 24 months?

您能否提醒我們，您如何看待未來幾年記憶體中過程控制強度的發展？我知道你們正在從產品開發的角度開展一些記憶方面的計劃。在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內，這些措施可能帶來多大的機會？

Yes, so on process control intensity for in and around memory, I think at planar NAND versus 3D NAND and DRAM, DRAM was always around 9%. Planar NAND was probably 8% or so. And if we look at across total memory today, we're in that 9% to 10% range. Clearly, as we've been talking about for several months, we think there are some opportunities not only for more inspection in terms of various defectivity in 3D NAND but also opportunities in and around metrology as metrology's much more intensive for 3D structures than planar structures. One thing that's also been driving our business is the increasing specs around flatness and wafer flatness for 3D NAND. And so we've seen our wafer customers investing more new capability to be able to produce wafers for the IC customers to be able to meet that spec challenge. That doesn't show up necessarily in some of our pure IC numbers from memory, but it's certainly a derivative effect that's positive. So we think we make some progress on these 2 offerings that we think that, that can probably drive to an opportunity that can be $200 million to $300 million across both platforms. I don't think you'll see that in '18. There's an adoption time line that's associated with that. But over time, it could be -- if we can solve the problem, I think there's an opportunity that's in that magnitude.

是的，所以在記憶體內部和周圍的過程控制強度方面，我認為在平面 NAND 與 3D NAND 和 DRAM 方面，DRAM 始終在 9% 左右。平面NAND大概是8%左右。如果我們看一下今天的總內存，我們處於 9% 到 10% 的範圍內。顯然，正如我們幾個月來一直在談論的那樣，我們認為不僅有機會對 3D NAND 中的各種缺陷進行更多檢查，而且在計量學方面也有機會，因為計量學對 3D 結構的要求比對平面結構的要求高得多。推動我們業務發展的因素之一是 3D NAND 的平整度和晶圓平整度規格的不斷提高。因此，我們看到我們的晶圓客戶投資更多的新功能，以便能夠為 IC 客戶生產晶圓，從而能夠滿足這項規格挑戰。這並不一定會出現在我們記憶中的一些純 IC 數字中，但它肯定是一種正面的衍生效應。因此，我們認為我們在這兩項產品上取得了一些進展，這可能會為兩個平台帶來 2 億至 3 億美元的機會。我認為你不會在 2018 年看到這種情況。有一個與此相關的採用時間表。但隨著時間的推移，如果我們能夠解決這個問題，我認為就存在如此巨大機會。

Okay. Great. And as a follow-up, you guys have talked about your business with some of the wafer manufacturers and even some of the mask shops. I guess you made some comments in your prepared remarks. I guess these are 2 customer groups that perhaps some of your peers don't necessarily have access to. So I guess I was curious, how big is -- how big are these 2 customer groups as a percentage of sales today? And what's kind of the outlook into 2018 when you think about their spending patterns?

好的。偉大的。作為後續，你們已經與一些晶圓製造商甚至一些掩模廠討論了你們的業務。我想您在準備好的發言中已經發表了一些評論。我猜想這兩個客戶群可能是您的一些同行無法接觸到的。所以我很好奇，這兩個客戶群佔當今銷售額的百分比是多少？當您考慮他們的消費模式時，2018 年的前景如何？

Well, we don't break it out, but it is significant. And it is often the case that when there are new specs is when -- and new products is when we see new adoption of technologies. So it isn't something we break out, but it is significant, especially for certain of our products. Bare wafer inspection we mentioned and also flatness we mentioned as being critical. And then of course, in the mask shops, it's the reticle tools both for overlay -- registration, but also for defect inspection. But pretty significant, but usually, the investment cycle on those is a little bit more in waves and less of an annual basis.

嗯，我們不會詳細闡述，但這確實很重要。通常情況下，當有新規格和新產品出現時，我們會看到新技術的採用。因此，這不是我們突破的一件事，但它意義重大，特別是對於我們的某些產品而言。我們提到的裸晶圓檢查以及平整度也至關重要。當然，在掩模車間，光罩工具不僅用於覆蓋註冊，還用於缺陷檢查。但相當重要，但通常情況下，這些投資週期更多的是波浪式的，而不是年度性的。

Your next question comes from the line of Jagadish Iyer from Summit Redstone.

您的下一個問題來自 Summit Redstone 的 Jagadish Iyer。

Rick, I have 2 questions. First, on -- you had a nice uptick in the patterning segment in the September quarter. What is the real driver for it, please?

里克，我有兩個問題。首先，9 月季度的圖案部分出現了良好的成長。請問，它的真正驅動力是什麼？

Yes, Jagadish, this is Bren. So that was reticle inspection. And so we had a couple of tools that we booked in the quarter focused for -- on EUV development activities from captive mask shops.

是的，賈加迪什，這是布倫。這就是標線檢查。因此，我們在本季度預訂了一些工具，重點是專屬掩模工廠的 EUV 開發活動。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just as a follow-up, I wanted to understand, now as EUV starts to make initial insertion next year, how should we think about the overall kind of the process control market given all the puts and takes about how multi-patterning could be changing at least in '18 and 2019? Any high-level thoughts here?

好的。很公平。然後作為後續問題，我想了解一下，現在 EUV 將於明年開始首次投入使用，考慮到多重圖案化至少在 2018 年和 2019 年可能發生的變化，我們應該如何看待整個過程控制市場？這裡有什麼高層次的想法嗎？

Sure. I think there are a couple of things to think about. The net of it all is we're not, at this point, capable of really seeing a big change in process control intensity, but it does move to different parts of our business. For example, right now we know there's even more pressure on wafer manufacturers for flatness for EUV. So there's an example where we'll get more. And what seems like perhaps unrelated, we also think that the Gen 5 application and adoption will be higher to support EUV print check but also initial production. There are fewer layers. So some of the films areas, we'll reduce -- the number of steps, we'll reduce, but there are new defect types. So right now when we model, we don't see a lot of difference in terms of overall capacity, and we have a number of flows that are what we believe the process flow would look like depending on the success of EUV. Where it will start to matter more and it's already impacting some is in reticle inspection, both with the Teron and then when we talk about later as we get to new capability 2019 for the gen -- or for the 5-nanometer and beyond, we'll see increased adoption as we go forward there.

當然。我認為有幾件事需要考慮。總而言之，目前我們還沒有能力真正看到製程控制強度的巨大變化，但它確實影響了我們業務的不同部分。例如，現在我們知道晶圓製造商在 EUV 平整度方面面臨更大的壓力。因此，我們可以從這個例子中獲得更多。看似無關的是，我們還認為 Gen 5 的應用和採用率將更高，以支援 EUV 列印檢查以及初始生產。層數較少。因此，我們會減少某些薄膜區域—步驟數量，但會出現新的缺陷類型。因此，現在當我們建模時，我們在整體容量方面沒有看到太大的差異，我們有許多流程，我們認為這些流程將取決於 EUV 的成功。它將開始變得更加重要，並且已經對一些領域產生了影響，即光罩檢查，無論是使用 Teron 還是當我們稍後討論 2019 年新一代或 5 奈米及以後的新功能時，我們將看到隨著我們向前發展，採用率將會增加。

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho from Stifel, Nicolaus.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho，Nicolaus。

Maybe as a follow-up to the last question on EUV, given the lack of actinic inspection tools at least at the outset, is there the potential, as it goes to high-volume manufacturing, that you could see increasing intensity for optical inspection at least at the outset to offset the lack actinic inspection?

也許作為關於 EUV 的最後一個問題的後續，鑑於至少在開始時缺乏光化檢測工具，隨著大規模生產，是否有可能至少在開始時看到光學檢測強度的增加，以彌補光化檢測的缺乏？

Patrick, no. I don't think so. I think that the high-volume if it's done in the current generation of EUV, will be served by the Teron platform. I think when we get to the high NA production for EUV, which will come at the sub-5 probably in maybe 2022, 2023 time frame, that's when there'll be a need for the EUV reticle tool, but also potentially actinic tools at that time frame. But we don't see a need for them before that. We think we're fully covering the market in the next few years with the toolsets that we have.

派崔克，不。我不這麼認為。我認為，如果在當前這一代 EUV 中實現大批量生產，那麼 Teron 平台將能夠滿足這一需求。我認為，當我們達到 EUV 的高 NA 產量時，大概在 2022 年或 2023 年左右達到 5 以下，那時就需要 EUV 光罩工具，但也可能需要在那個時間範圍內使用光化工具。但我們認為在此之前沒有必要。我們認為，在未來幾年內，我們將利用現有的工具集全面覆蓋市場。

Great. That's helpful. And my follow-up question in terms of China. You talked about some of the memory fabs that you guys are tracking and where you're seeing the activity already start in terms of process control buy. How do you look at, I guess, some of the logic and foundry fabs that are also starting to develop in China and some of the opportunity that even though it is going to be a little more mainstream and legacy nodes, what are some of the opportunities there for you given that even the 28-nanometer node does have high levels of process control intensity?

偉大的。這很有幫助。我的後續問題是關於中國的問題。您談到了你們正在追蹤的一些記憶體工廠，以及你們看到在工藝控制購買方面已經開始的活動。我想，您如何看待中國也開始發展的一些邏輯和代工廠，以及其中的一些機會，儘管它將是更主流和傳統的節點，但考慮到 28 奈米節點確實具有高水平的工藝控制強度，對您來說有哪些機會？

Well, we've already seen some of that, right, with established players. And they do invest and you have to, again, look at scale because those fabs tend to be bigger than the giga fabs elsewhere in the world for those nodes. So process control intensity, by that definition, is higher. We do see increased interest in those nodes. And those new facilities, of course, when they're greenfield and they're coming up, they don't have the option of reusing any other equipment, so we do see opportunity there. So we think that there will be continued opportunity. And initially, we didn't see, I'd say a year ago, so we weren't envisioning the memory that we're seeing now in China, but we actually were anticipating logic. So it's something we've been prepared for and even have, in some cases, restarted old lines to support them with products that are more appropriate for those design rules.

嗯，我們已經在成熟球員身上看到了一些這樣的情況。他們確實進行了投資，但你必須再次考慮規模，因為這些晶圓廠往往比世界上其他地方的千兆晶圓廠更大。因此，根據該定義，過程控制強度更高。我們確實看到人們對這些節點的興趣日益濃厚。當然，當這些新設施還處於新建階段時，它們沒有選擇重新使用任何其他設備的選擇，所以我們確實看到了機會。因此我們認為機會還會繼續存在。最初，我想說，一年前我們還沒有看到，所以我們並沒有想像我們現在在中國看到的記憶，但我們實際上預期的是邏輯。所以這是我們已經準備好的事情，在某些情況下，甚至重新啟動舊生產線，以提供更適合這些設計規則的產品來支援它們。

If I look at the mix -- yes, just one other comment. If I look at the mix for calendar '18, it looks like it's slightly more foundry weighted than memory. Calendar '17 was more memory weighted; '16 was foundry. So I would expect more foundry investment in '18 from that region, and that's the native China business.

如果我看一下混合物——是的，還有一條評論。如果我看一下 18 年曆的組合，看起來代工廠的權重比記憶體的權重略高。17 年曆的內存權重更大； '16 是鑄造廠。因此，我預計2018年該地區將有更多的代工投資，而且這是中國本土的業務。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Farhan Ahmad from Crédit Suisse.

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。

Just a question on the dividend. If I look at your dividend payout right now, it's somewhere around 30% to 32% for this year, next year earnings. And your long-term model, you've talked about 40% to 50% range. So how should we think about the dividend going forward? Are you planning to stick to the 40% to 50% range?

我只是想問一下關於股息的問題。如果我看一下現在的股息支付情況，今年和明年的收益大約在 30% 到 32% 之間。在您的長期模型中，您談到了 40% 到 50% 的範圍。那我們該如何看待未來的股利呢？您打算堅持 40% 到 50% 的範圍嗎？

Yes, Farhan, it's a good question. I mean, clearly, we raised the dividend back in June, and we raised it almost 10%. Our model -- and the business has strengthened and the performance has been very strong. So clearly, we've outpaced that target. I mean, that's -- when we talk about that target being in that sort of 40% to 50% range, that's a [3-cycle] target over time. We think about it that way because you're going to have periods you may be under it when business is strong, but business (inaudible) obviously want to build it to be able to not only just maintain it, but also raise it in weaker times. So over time, we target the growth rate of the total dividend payout versus the growth rate in earnings. And so if you look at our model right now where we see the top line growing 6% to 8%, we think we can grow the bottom line greater than 10% on that, that we'd grow the dividend payout in that greater than 10% range. So there's a couple different ways you can look at it. I mean, clearly, as the business continues to grow and we've raised it now with 6 or 7 years in a row. So this is a very consistent process on an annual basis, and we'll run through that process again as we complete our strategic planning process for the year.

是的，Farhan，這是個好問題。我的意思是，很明顯，我們在六月提高了股息，而且提高了近 10%。我們的模式－業務得到了加強，業績也非常強勁。顯然，我們已經超越了這個目標。我的意思是，當我們談論的目標在 40% 到 50% 的範圍內時，這是一個隨著時間推移的 [3 個週期] 目標。我們這樣想是因為你可能會在業務強勁的時候處於這種狀態，但企業（聽不清楚）顯然希望建立它，以便不僅能夠維持它，而且還能在較弱的時期提高它。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們的目標是總股息支付的成長率與收益的成長率。因此，如果您查看我們現在的模型，我們會發現營業收入增長了 6% 到 8%，我們認為我們可以將利潤增長超過 10%，並且我們的股息支付也會在 10% 以上的範圍內增長。因此，你可以用幾種不同的方式來看待它。我的意思是，顯然，隨著業務的不斷增長，我們已經連續 6 或 7 年提高了這個數字。因此，這是一個每年都非常一致的過程，當我們完成年度策略規劃過程時，​​我們將再次運行這個過程。

And also, Farhan, as you can imagine, if there were a change in tax policy and we had access to more of that cash, we would revisit the payout ratio.

而且，法爾漢，你可以想像，如果稅收政策發生變化，我們可以獲得更多現金，我們就會重新審視派息率。

Your next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Just kind of following up in terms of capital return. So it looks like you guys are going to get to your target gross debt level of $2.5 billion sometime very soon. I think you guys are already at your target leverage ratio. So in a pretty short period of time, you're going to have a lot of strong excess free cash flow. You obviously have had a strategy of, number one, investing in the business; and then secondarily, a strong focus on capital return. So how do you guys think about uses for this excess free cash flow, i.e., something like turning on a stock repurchase program?

只是在資本回報方面進行跟進。因此看起來你們很快就會達到 25 億美元的目標總債務水準。我認為你們已經達到了目標槓桿率。因此，在相當短的時間內，您將擁有大量強勁的過剩自由現金流。顯然，您已經制定了以下策略：第一，投資業務；其次，高度關注資本回報。那麼你們如何看待這些過剩自由現金流的用途，例如啟動股票回購計畫？

Well, so we started buying back some modest levels of stock a couple quarters ago. And you're right on all accounts, right? As we get through next quarter, we retire this note next month. We will be consistent with the commitments that we made back when we restructured the capital structure of the company back in 2014. So given the strength of the business, we're below our leverage levels. And so there is -- it's not necessarily a compelling reason for us to continue to delever. And we would redirect, I believe, in the shorter term towards share repurchase. Now there is the U.S. and offshore cash dynamic in terms of cash flow. And given the strength of some of our product lines, I think that our U.S. cash flow into next year is probably at the lower end of the 60% to 70% target range that we've referenced in the past. But you're right, there will be some cash flow that will become available, and we'll run through our process. And first and foremost, we invest in our business, and we're doing that. And then secondly, as part of our -- capital structure is part of the company strategy. And so as we look at growth opportunities juxtaposed against shareholder return alternatives, it's part of our DNA and will be something that we will do. So I'll announce something when we have something.

嗯，所以我們幾個季度前就開始回購一些適量的股票。從各方面來看你都是對的，對嗎？隨著我們進入下個季度，我們將於下個月停止使用此通知。我們將始終堅持我們在2014年重組公司資本結構時所做的承諾。因此，考慮到業務實力，我們的槓桿水平低於預期。所以，這不一定是我們繼續去槓桿的令人信服的理由。我相信，短期內我們會轉向股票回購。現在，就現金流而言，美國和海外的現金存在動態。考慮到我們部分產品線的實力，我認為我們明年的美國現金流可能處於我們過去提到的 60% 至 70% 目標範圍的低端。但您說得對，會有一些現金流可用，我們會完成我們的流程。首先，我們投資我們的業務，我們正在這樣做。其次，作為我們的一部分──資本結構是公司策略的一部分。因此，當我們將成長機會與股東回報替代方案進行比較時，這是我們 DNA 的一部分，也是我們會做的事情。所以當我們有事時我就會宣布。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Ed Lockwood, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。艾德洛克伍德先生，我把電話轉回給您。

All right. Thank you, Christine. Thank you, all, for joining us today. This concludes our conference call. Have a wonderful rest of the day.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯汀。謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們的電話會議到此結束。祝您今天剩餘的時間過得愉快。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。