科磊 (KLAC) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, my name is Lance, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA-Tencor Corporation Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，我叫 Lance，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 KLA-Tencor 公司 2018 財年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

Mr. Ed Lockwood of KLA-Tencor Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

KLA-Tencor 投資者關係部門的 Ed Lockwood 先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Lance. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our conference call. Joining me on our call today are Rick Wallace, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer. We're here today to discuss quarterly results for the period ended June 30, 2018. We released these results this afternoon at 1:15 Pacific Time. If you haven't seen the release, you can find it on our website.

謝謝你，蘭斯。大家下午好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Rick Wallace；以及我們的財務長 Bren Higgins。今天我們在這裡討論截至 2018 年 6 月 30 日的季度業績。我們於今天下午太平洋時間 1:15 公佈了這些結果。如果您還沒有看到該新聞稿，您可以在我們的網站上找到它。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on our non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release and in the Investor Relation presentation on KLA-Tencor's Investor Relations website. There, you'll also find a calendar of future investor events, presentations and conferences as well as links to KLA-Tencor's SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2017. In those filings, you'll also find descriptions of risk factors that could impact our future results.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務結果的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎為基礎。在今天的收益新聞稿和 KLA-Tencor 投資者關係網站上的投資者關係介紹中可以找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的詳細對帳。您還可以在這裡找到未來投資者活動、演示和會議的日曆以及 KLA-Tencor 的 SEC 文件的鏈接，包括我們截至 2017 年 6 月 30 日的 10-K 表年度報告。在這些文件中，您還會發現可能影響我們未來業績的風險因素的描述。

As you know, our future results are subject to risks. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA-Tencor cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

如您所知，我們的未來業績面臨風險。任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述，都受這些風險的影響，而 KLA-Tencor 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述會成真。我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有很大差異。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給里克。

Thanks, Ed. We're very pleased to report another strong quarter for KLA-Tencor with shipments revenue and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share each finishing at the upper end of guidance. KLA-Tencor delivered the second highest quarterly booking results in our history in the June quarter, while setting all-time records in quarterly shipments, revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share.

謝謝，艾德。我們非常高興地報告 KLA-Tencor 又一個強勁的季度，出貨量收入和非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益均達到預期上限。KLA-Tencor 在六月季度實現了公司歷史上第二高的季度訂單業績，同時創下了季度出貨量、收入、GAAP 和非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益的歷史新高。

I'm also pleased to report that we ended the June quarter with a positive book-to-bill and with record total backlog of almost $2 billion. Also, we are pleased to note our continued progress on our time line for closing the Orbotech acquisition in the fourth quarter of this calendar year. On July 12, the Orbotech shareholders approved the merger. And to date, we have received all the necessary regulatory approvals, with the exception of Korea and China, which we expect to obtain in due course. The record results and strong momentum KLA-Tencor is delivering today demonstrates the value of our market leadership and the critical nature of process control. They also highlight our market diversification and the benefits of our exposure to growth markets, such as: EUV lithography; the early ramp of 7-nanometer devices in foundry; growth in the bare wafer market to address capacity growth in memory; and China, to highlight a few.

我還很高興地報告，我們在六月季度結束時實現了正訂單出貨比，並且總積壓訂單量創下了近 20 億美元的紀錄。此外，我們很高興地註意到，我們在今年第四季度完成 Orbotech 收購的時間表上繼續取得進展。7月12日，奧寶科技股東批准了此次合併。到目前為止，我們已經獲得了所有必要的監管批准，但韓國和中國除外，我們預計將在適當的時候獲得這兩個國家的批准。KLA-Tencor 今天取得的創紀錄的業績和強勁的發展勢頭證明了我們的市場領導地位的價值以及過程控制的關鍵性。它們也凸顯了我們的市場多樣化以及我們接觸成長市場的好處，例如：EUV 微影技術；代工廠中 7 奈米元件的早期發展；裸晶圓市場的成長以滿足記憶體容量的成長；以及中國等。

The overall WFE industry environment continues to perform at a high level, and we are excited about the prospects for continued strength in industry demand as we begin the second half of 2018 and look ahead to 2019. Our view is for WFE levels to grow in the mid-single-digit range in 2018, aligned with the current consensus growth forecast for the year. Against this industry backdrop, our view for KLA-Tencor revenue growth is in the low double digits for the calendar year.

整個 WFE 產業環境持續保持高水平，在 2018 年下半年開始並展望 2019 年之際，我們對產業需求持續強勁的前景感到興奮。我們認為，2018 年 WFE 水準將成長至中等個位數，與目前今年成長的普遍預測一致。在這樣的產業背景下，我們預計 KLA-Tencor 全年營收成長率將達到兩位數的低點。

Now let's discuss some of the unique dynamics that are fueling our market leadership and diversified growth. First, we are experiencing near record levels of demand in mask inspection and registration, fueled by customers' investments in EUV lithography and by continued strength in multi-patterning optical lithography supporting 10- and 7-nanometer design tapeouts. KLA-Tencor is working with each of our major customers to accelerate EUV mask development and yield learning, providing a complete portfolio of advanced mask inspection solutions. EUV promises to be a positive catalyst for future growth for process control as it continues to enable linear scaling and presents market opportunities that we believe KLA-Tencor is uniquely positioned to address as the market leader in mask and wafer inspection as well as in films, CD and overlay metrology.

現在讓我們討論一下推動我們市場領導地位和多元化成長的一些獨特動力。首先，由於客戶對 EUV 光刻技術的投資以及支援 10 奈米和 7 奈米設計流片的多圖案光學光刻技術的持續強勁增長，我們在掩模檢測和註冊方面的需求接近創紀錄的水平。KLA-Tencor 正在與我們的每個主要客戶合作，加速 EUV 掩模開發和產量學習，提供全套先進的掩模檢測解決方案。EUV 有望成為未來製程控製成長的積極催化劑，因為它能夠繼續實現線性擴展，並帶來市場機會。我們相信，KLA-Tencor 作為掩模版和晶圓檢測以及薄膜、CD 和套刻計量領域的市場領導者，擁有獨特的優勢。

Another example is in how, over the past several quarters, we've seen exceptional growth in demand for bare wafer inspection and metrology solutions driven by the expansion of bare wafer supply associated with the strong memory market as well as more stringent cleanliness and flatness requirements for bare wafers. In addition, IC memory and logic customers are also experienced -- increased their investment in process tool qualification to limit yield excursions and to meet aggressive yield and capacity ramp goals.

另一個例子是，在過去幾個季度中，我們看到對裸晶圓檢測和計量解決方案的需求異常增長，這得益於強勁的內存市場帶來的裸晶圓供應擴張以及對裸晶圓清潔度和平整度更嚴格的要求。此外，IC 記憶體和邏輯客戶也經驗豐富——增加了對製程工具鑑定的投資，以限制產量偏差並滿足積極的產量和產能提升目標。

A third example of how KLA-Tencor is benefiting from our market diversification and technology leadership is seen in our strong results in China. Investment in China is the next major market inflection of WFE. And as the market leader in process control, KLA-Tencor is helping to enable development and growth of the China semiconductor industry. Our customers in China are investing with us at a high level to accelerate early process development and yield learning. With our broad portfolio of advanced process control solutions and our demonstrated ability to meet aggressive ramp schedules, KLA-Tencor's business in China is operating at a high level, and we expect it to remain strong for the foreseeable future.

KLA-Tencor 從我們的市場多元化和技術領先地位中獲益的第三個例子是我們在中國的強勁業績。投資中國是WFE的下一個重大市場轉捩點。作為製程控制領域的市場領導者，KLA-Tencor 正在協助中國半導體產業的發展與壯大。我們在中國的客戶正在與我們進行高水準投資，以加速早期製程開發和產量學習。憑藉我們廣泛的先進製程控制解決方案組合以及我們滿足激進產能提升計劃的能力，KLA-Tencor 在中國的業務正處於高水平運營，我們預計其在可預見的未來仍將保持強勁勢頭。

And finally, KLA-Tencor service business continues to be a highlight. Service is approaching $1 billion in annual revenue today and is expected to continue to deliver consistent, high single-digit annual revenue growth over the next several years. I'll note that greater than 75% of service revenue is from service contracts to enable needed uptime of our systems, demonstrating the value of the insight and technology these systems provide to enable customer success. Long-term growth in services is tied to growth in the installed base as well as from expanding investment in trailing edge fabs, which are running at full utilization and creating new opportunities for product enhancements and upgrades.

最後，KLA-Tencor 服務業務繼續成為亮點。目前，該項服務的年收入已接近 10 億美元，預計未來幾年將繼續保持穩定、高個位數的年收入成長。我要指出的是，超過 75% 的服務收入來自服務合同，以確保我們系統所需的正常運行時間，這證明了這些系統提供的洞察力和技術對實現客戶成功的價值。服務業的長期成長與已安裝基數的成長以及對後緣晶圓廠的投資擴大息息相關，這些晶圓廠正在充分利用並為產品增強和升級創造新的機會。

To sum up today's results, before I turn the call over to Bren, June was another record-setting quarter for KLA-Tencor, demonstrating the company's strong execution in fast-growing industry environment. Given our market diversification and the record levels of demand we are experiencing in the marketplace, 2018 is shaping up to be an outstanding year for KLA-Tencor. And we are encouraged by the early signs of continuing momentum we are seeing for 2019.

總結一下今天的結果，在我將電話轉給布倫之前，6 月份是 KLA-Tencor 又一個創紀錄的季度，證明了該公司在快速增長的行業環境中的強大執行力。鑑於我們的市場多樣化以及我們在市場上經歷的創紀錄的需求水平，2018 年將成為 KLA-Tencor 傑出的一年。我們對 2019 年持續成長勢頭的早期跡象感到鼓舞。

I'll now turn the call over to Bren for his comments. Bren?

現在我將電話轉給布倫，請他發表評論。布倫？

Thanks, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone. As Rick highlighted in his opening remarks, the June quarter delivered excellent financial results for the company. Shipments, revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share all came in at the upper end of the range of guidance in the quarter with revenue, shipments and earnings per share once again achieving record levels. These results were driven by strong demand across our major product markets as well as a solid execution of our strategic objectives. Revenue was $1.070 billion in the June quarter, GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were both $2.22.

謝謝，里克，大家下午好。正如里克在開場白中所強調的那樣，該公司六月季度的財務表現非常出色。本季度，出貨量、營收、GAAP 和非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘均達到預期範圍的上限，營收、出貨量和每股盈餘再次創下歷史新高。這些業績得益於我們主要產品市場的強勁需求以及我們策略目標的穩健執行。6 月當季營收為 10.7 億美元，GAAP 和非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘均為 2.22 美元。

In our press release, you'll find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. As a reminder, unless I explicitly refer to GAAP results, my commentary will be solely focused on the non-GAAP results, which exclude the adjustments covered in the press release.

在我們的新聞稿中，您會發現 GAAP 與非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘的對帳。提醒一下，除非我明確提到 GAAP 結果，否則我的評論將僅關注非 GAAP 結果，不包括新聞稿中涵蓋的調整。

Now turning to highlights of the June demand environment in terms of shipments. Total shipments were $1.07 billion, about $20 million above the midpoint of guidance and finishing at the top end of the guided range for the quarter driven by strength in memory.

現在來看看六月出貨量方面的需求環境亮點。總出貨量為 10.7 億美元，比指導中點高出約 2,000 萬美元，並在記憶體強勁的推動下達到本季指引範圍的最高端。

Looking forward, we are modeling September quarter shipments to be down almost 10% at the midpoint and be in the range of $935 million to $1.015 billion. Our current expectation is for shipment growth in the second half of calendar '18 to be flat to up low single digits compared with the first half with sequential quarterly growth resuming in the December quarter.

展望未來，我們預計 9 月季度出貨量中位數將下降近 10%，介於 9.35 億美元至 10.15 億美元之間。我們目前預計，2018 年下半年的出貨量成長將與上半年持平或上升較低的個位數，12 月季度將恢復連續季度成長。

While second half shipments will be stronger than the first half, this half-to-half growth expectation is modestly lower than our expectations from 3 months ago, given the widely reported memory pushouts and slowing logic investment.

雖然下半年的出貨量將強於上半年，但考慮到廣泛報導的記憶體推出和邏輯投資放緩，這種半對半成長預期略低於我們 3 個月前的預期。

Our shipment mix in the second half features continued strong customer pull from our memory customers, including those in China, ramping bare wafer products and an expected pick up in foundry logic shipments in the second half of the year.

我們下半年的出貨量組合特點是來自記憶體客戶的持續強勁拉動，包括中國客戶，裸晶圓產品大幅增加，預計下半年代工邏輯出貨量也將回升。

Memory was 69% of shipments and in line with our original forecast for the quarter. DRAM accounted for 28% of total system shipments in the period. For September, we expect memory shipments to be approximately 59% of the total.

記憶體佔出貨量的 69%，符合我們對該季度的初步預測。DRAM 佔該期間系統總出貨量的 28%。9 月份，我們預期記憶體出貨量約佔總出貨量的 59%。

Foundry was 22% of shipments in the June quarter. And foundry is forecasted to be about 36% of shipments in Q3, driven by increases in EUV investment and 7-nanometer design starts.

代工佔六月季度出貨量的 22%。受 EUV 投資增加和 7 奈米設計啟動的推動，預計代工廠在第三季的出貨量將占到 36% 左右。

Logic was 9% of shipments. And our current outlook is for logic to be approximately 5% of total system shipments this quarter. In terms of the approximate distribution of shipments by product group, wafer inspection was 47% of shipments. Patterning was 29%. Patterning includes shipments for our metrology businesses and for reticle inspection. Service was 21%, and non-semi was approximately 3%.

邏輯佔出貨量的 9%。我們目前的預測是，邏輯電路將佔本季系統總出貨量的 5% 左右。就以產品組別劃分的出貨量大致分佈而言，晶圓檢測佔出貨量的47%。圖案化率為29%。圖案化包括我們計量業務和光罩檢查的發貨。服務業佔21%，非半成品約佔3%。

Revenue was a record $1.070 billion in June, finishing at the upper end of the range of guidance. We expect September revenue to be flat at the midpoint and be in the range of $1.030 billion to $1.110 billion for the quarter. Revenue in the second half of calendar '18 is expected to grow in the mid-single digits compared with the first half, aligned with our current outlook for revenue growth in the low double digits in the calendar year.

6 月營收達到創紀錄的 10.7 億美元，達到預期範圍的上限。我們預計 9 月營收將與中位數持平，本季營收將在 10.30 億美元至 11.10 億美元之間。預計 2018 年下半年的營收將較上半年成長中等個位數，與我們目前對全年營收成長低兩位數的預期一致。

Gross margins were 64.8%, at the upper end of guidance for the quarter. The factors driving our strong gross margin performance in June were consistent with recent margin trends, with the upside largely driven by product mix. Looking forward to September, we expect gross margins to, again, be in the range of 64% to 65%, as improving service margins offset slightly weaker product system mix.

毛利率為 64.8%，達到本季預期的上限。推動我們 6 月毛利率表現強勁的因素與近期的利潤率趨勢一致，而上行主要得益於產品組合。展望9月份，我們預期毛利率將再次達到64%至65%之間，因為服務利潤率的提高抵消了產品系統組合略弱的影響。

Total operating expenses were $265 million in June and operating margin was 40%. We continue to see many opportunities for top line growth in our core business and plan to maintain our investment posture with new programs, including those supporting e-beam, EUV and advanced memory applications, to name 3 important examples.

6 月總營運費用為 2.65 億美元，營運利潤率為 40%。我們繼續看到核心業務中存在許多收入成長機會，並計劃透過新項目保持我們的投資態勢，其中包括支援電子束、EUV 和先進記憶體應用的項目，僅舉三個重要的例子。

For the September quarter, we expect operating expenses to be approximately $270 million, with variability around this operating expense level driven principally by the timing of nonheadcount engineering program development costs.

對於 9 月當季，我們預計營運費用約為 2.7 億美元，而營運費用水準的波動主要受非員工工程專案開發成本時間的影響。

For the full year in calendar '18, we expect operating margins to be in the 39% range, solidly above the targeted 38%-plus margin level in our published business model for these revenue levels, and demonstrating KLA-Tencor's leading market position and business execution. Free cash flow margin is currently forecasted to be in the upper 20th percentile in 2018, ranking KLA-Tencor among the top tier of companies in our industry.

對於 2018 年全年，我們預計營業利潤率將在 39% 左右，遠高於我們公佈的業務模型中針對這些收入水平所設定的 38% 以上的目標利潤率水平，這也體現了 KLA-Tencor 領先的市場地位和業務執行力。目前預計 2018 年自由現金流利潤率將達到 20% 左右，使 KLA-Tencor 躋身行業頂級公司之列。

The effective tax rate was 15% in the quarter, in line with our guidance and our long-term tax planning rate. Finally, net income for the June quarter was a record $348 million, and we had 156.8 million fully diluted shares outstanding.

本季有效稅率為 15%，符合我們的指導和長期稅收計畫稅率。最後，6 月當季的淨收入達到創紀錄的 3.48 億美元，我們的完全稀釋流通股數為 1.568 億股。

Turning briefly to highlights of the June quarter balance sheet and cash flow statement. Cash and investments ended the quarter at almost $2.9 billion. Cash from operations was strong at $374 million, and free cash flow was $351 million. In the quarter, we retired $225 million of outstanding debt on our revolving credit facility; paid an aggregate of $117 million in regular quarterly dividends and dividend equivalents for fully vested restricted stock units; and repurchased $38 million of common stock pursuant to our share repurchase program.

簡單介紹一下六月季度資產負債表和現金流量表的重點。本季末，現金和投資總額接近 29 億美元。營運現金流強勁，達到 3.74 億美元，自由現金流為 3.51 億美元。本季度，我們償還了循環信貸額度中 2.25 億美元的未償債務；支付了總計 1.17 億美元的定期季度股息和完全歸屬限制性股票單位的股息等值物；並根據我們的股票回購計劃回購了價值 3800 萬美元的普通股。

At the end of the June quarter, we had just under $1 billion authorized under our share repurchase program. Legal restrictions related to the timing of shareholder approval of the Orbotech transaction limited our repurchase activity in Q2, but we plan to resume repurchases in the September quarter, targeting quarterly repurchase volumes consistent with our previously articulated approach and expect a 12- to 18-month time frame, subject to market conditions. We have an additional $1 billion share repurchase authorized upon completion of the Orbotech acquisition.

截至 6 月底，我們的股票回購計畫已獲授權近 10 億美元。與股東批准 Orbotech 交易時間相關的法律限制限制了我們在第二季度的回購活動，但我們計劃在 9 月季度恢復回購，目標是季度回購量與我們先前闡明的方針一致，並預計時間範圍為 12 至 18 個月，具體取決於市場情況。Orbotech 收購完成後，我們獲得了額外 10 億美元股票回購授權。

Finally, I'll note that we will adopt a new revenue recognition standard, ASC 606, starting in the September quarter to coincide with the start of our 2019 fiscal year. We're adopting ASC 606 using the modified retrospective method, in which we will report financial results prospectively under the new standard but will not restate historical results.

最後，我要指出的是，我們將從 9 月季度開始採用新的收入確認標準 ASC 606，以配合我們 2019 財年的開始。我們正在採用 ASC 606 的修改後的回顧法，即根據新標準前瞻性地報告財務結果，但不會重述歷史結果。

Also, throughout FY '19, which ends on June 30 2019, we will provide a quarterly reconciliation of reported revenue as well as what revenue would have been under the old reporting standard in order to help investors quantify the impact of differences in revenue recognition under the old and new standards. We do not foresee any impact to cash flows or business operations from the adoption of ASC 606. However, adoption of ASC 606 will impact reported revenue.

此外，在截至 2019 年 6 月 30 日的 2019 財年期間，我們將提供報告收入以及舊報告標準下收入的季度對賬，以幫助投資者量化新舊標準下收入確認差異的影響。我們預計採用 ASC 606 不會對現金流量或業務營運產生任何影響。然而，採用 ASC 606 將影響報告的收入。

Here is the summary of 2 primary changes to revenue recognition resulting from the adoption of ASC 606. First, instead of accruing the cost of 1-year warranties for systems that we sell to our customers, we will allocate revenue to the warranty element of each transaction and recognize the revenue over the warranty period since we will provide preventative maintenance as well as repair services during the warranty period in a manner consistent with our normal service contracts.

以下是採用 ASC 606 後收入確認的兩個主要變化的摘要。首先，我們不會累積我們向客戶銷售的系統 1 年保固的成本，而是將收入分配給每筆交易的保固部分，並在保固期內確認收入，因為我們將在保固期內以與我們的正常服務合約一致的方式提供預防性維護和維修服務。

Second, we will continue to recognize systems revenue at the point of time where we have satisfied our performance obligations and transferred control of the product to a customer. The determination of satisfaction of performance obligations is based on several factors, including: the transfer of title; physical possession of the tool by the customer; customer acceptance of the product; and whether customer acceptance is considered a formality based on history of acceptance of similar products.

其次，當我們履行完履約義務並將產品控制權轉移給客戶時，我們將繼續確認系統收入。履約義務的履行情況的認定基於多種因素，包括：所有權的轉移；客戶實際擁有該工具；客戶對產品的接受度；以及根據類似產品的驗收歷史，客戶驗收是否被視為一種形式。

We expect that the new standard will generally allow for earlier timing of revenue recognition and circumstances were to deem that sufficient performance indicators have been satisfied to conclude the control has been transferred to the customer.

我們預計，新標準通常會允許更早的時間確認收入，並且情況將認為已經滿足了足夠的績效指標，從而得出控制權已轉移給客戶的結論。

We are still assessing the overall impact to revenue from adoption of the new standard. As I mentioned, a detailed reconciliation of the differences in revenue recognition between the old and new standards will be provided on a quarterly basis, beginning with the reporting of the results of the September quarter.

我們仍在評估採用新標準對收入的整體影響。正如我所提到的，從 9 月季度業績報告開始，我們將按季度提供新舊準則之間收入確認差異的詳細對帳。

Going forward, quarterly guidance, including the guidance for the September quarter, will only be provided based on the new rules. We will report actual revenue under both sets of rules for every quarter in fiscal '19 in our Form 10-Q.

展望未來，季度指導（包括 9 月季度的指導）將僅根據新規則提供。我們將在 10-Q 表中報告 2019 財年每季根據這兩套規則的實際收入。

Although there are future factors in terms of shipment timing and customer acceptance of products that could impact results under both standards, based on current shipment and revenue forecast, we expect the difference in reported revenue under the new standard to be favorable in calendar '18 and in the range of 1% plus or minus 50 basis points higher when compared with the old standard.

儘管在發貨時間和客戶對產品的接受度等方面的未來因素可能會影響兩種準則下的結果，但根據目前的發貨量和收入預測，我們預計新準則下報告的收入差異在 2018 年將是有利的，與舊準則相比，將在 1% 正負 50 個基點的範圍內。

In conclusion, the results demonstrated by KLA-Tencor in the June quarter reflect the company's technology leadership, the critical nature of process control in our customers' growth strategies and the value of our industry-leading business model. The semiconductor and semi-equipment industry environment today is strong, healthy and performing at a high level, with multiple path of growth fueled by demand from exciting new applications such as artificial intelligence, Big Data, increasing semiconductor automotive content and the Internet of Things, layered on top of investment in China and the traditional computing and mobility markets. As the market leader in process control and with our revenue diversification within the wafer fab equipment market, coupled with the new opportunities for growth and market expansion presented by the pending Orbotech acquisition, we believe the company's uniquely positioned to benefit from this industry growth and we continue to deliver long-term value to our shareholders.

總之，KLA-Tencor 在六月季度所取得的業績反映了公司的技術領先地位、工藝控制在客戶成長策略中的關鍵性以及我們領先業界的商業模式的價值。當今的半導體和半設備行業環境強勁、健康、表現高水平，人工智慧、大數據、不斷增加的半導體汽車內容和物聯網等令人興奮的新應用的需求，加上對中國和傳統計算和移動市場的投資，推動了多種增長路徑。作為製程控制領域的市場領導者，憑藉我們在晶圓廠設備市場中的收入多元化，再加上即將進行的奧寶科技收購所帶來的新的成長和市場擴張機會，我們相信公司擁有獨特的優勢，可以從這一行業增長中受益，我們將繼續為股東提供長期價值。

Looking forward to the second half of 2018 and beyond, fueled by record total backlog at the end of the June quarter and with growth in revenue in the second half of the year, we are positioned for another year of solid growth in 2018 and look forward to more of the same in 2019.

展望 2018 年下半年及以後，受 6 月底創紀錄的總積壓訂單量以及下半年收入增長的推動，我們預計在 2018 年實現又一年的穩健增長，並期待 2019 年能夠取得更大的增長。

With that, our guidance for the September quarter is: shipments in the range of $935 million to $1.015 billion; revenue between $1.030 billion and $1.110 billion; and GAAP diluted EPS of $2 to $2.32 per share as well as non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.04 to $2.36 per share.

因此，我們對 9 月季度的預期是：出貨量在 9.35 億美元至 10.15 億美元之間；收入在 10.30 億美元至 11.10 億美元之間； GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 2 美元至 2.32 美元，非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 2.04 美元至 2.36 美元。

With that, I will now turn the call back over to Ed to begin the Q&A.

現在，我將把電話轉回給 Ed，開始問答環節。

Okay. Thank you, Bren. At this point, we like to open up the call for questions. (Operator Instructions) All right. Lance, we're ready for the first question.

好的。謝謝你，布倫。現在，我們想開始提問。（操作員指示）好的。蘭斯，我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from the line of Mr. Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

（操作員指示）第一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri 先生。

Bren, I guess the first question is, it looks like you lost maybe $50 million in shipments for the entirety of the second half, almost all of which was in the third calendar quarter. So I guess, my question is was this all memory, and the inevitable question is going to be why should everyone trust that September quarter is going to be the bottom? What is -- what do you see to basically catalyze Q4 being better? And then I had a follow-up.

布倫，我想第一個問題是，看起來你們整個下半年的出貨量損失了大約 5000 萬美元，幾乎全部發生在第三季。所以我想，我的問題是這都是記憶嗎？不可避免的問題是為什麼每個人都應該相信九月季度將會是底部？您認為什麼可以基本催化第四季的改善？然後我進行了後續跟進。

Yes, Tim. So it's been pretty well chronicled about some of the push-outs that we've seen over the last month or so, and that's an industry statement. Yes, it was mostly memory. There was some impact in some other segments as well, but most of it was memory. Based on what we see in our build plans, we see a pretty strong snapback into the December quarter. And all indications here, at this point, given our conversations with customers, with all customers, is that, that's the case. So we're pretty confident about it. I think it's our customers behaving rationally in terms of how they're managing capacity, and we would expect it to come back in Q4.

是的，提姆。因此，我們在過去一個月左右看到的一些延遲事件已經得到了很好的記錄，這是一份行業聲明。是的，大部分都是記憶。其他一些部分也有一些影響，但大部分都是記憶。根據我們的建設計劃，我們預計 12 月季度將出現相當強勁的反彈。目前，根據我們與客戶、所有客戶的對話，所有跡像都表明，情況確實如此。所以我們對此非常有信心。我認為我們的客戶在管理產能方面表現得很理性，我們預計第四季度產能將恢復正常。

Awesome. And then just as my follow-up question, you guys almost always are at or above the high end of the earnings range. So if I assume that, that's going to happen again in the third quarter, that would put you at basically, [9 50 to 9 60], in annualized earnings. So the stock would be trading at roughly 10.5x to 11x earnings. So I would think that you're chomping at the bit to basically buy back your stock at these levels. So can you talk a little bit about what the plan is for repo and what the cadence might be once you're able to do that?

驚人的。然後就像我的後續問題一樣，你們的收入幾乎總是處於或高於收入範圍的高端。因此，如果我假設這種情況在第三季再次發生，那麼你的年化收益基本上將達到 [9.50 到 9.60]。因此，該股票的交易價格約為本益比的 10.5 倍至 11 倍。因此我認為您迫不及待地想以這樣的價格回購股票。那麼，您能否稍微談談 repo 的計劃是什麼，以及一旦您能夠做到這一點，節奏會是怎樣的？

So we authorized $1 billion, which -- so I covered this in the prepared remarks. We authorized $1 billion and then another $1 billion contingent on the closing of the Orbotech acquisition. And a time frame for execution, over the next 12 to 18 months. So we weren't able to do that for legal reasons in the June quarter, and we would expect that we plan to begin doing that in a much more aggressive way beginning this quarter. So we tend to be very principled, focused in terms of how we think about the execution of this and the principles that ultimately drive how we think about deploying the cash flows of the company. So we plan to do that in a systematic way, although we do have flexibility to be opportunistic as we move over the next 12 months. But we expect to step up our posture, and we'll increase it even further after we close the Orbotech acquisition.

因此我們授權了 10 億美元，我在準備好的演講稿中已經提到了這一點。我們授權撥款 10 億美元，之後在 Orbotech 收購完成後再撥款 10 億美元。並設定了執行的時間框架，即未來 12 至 18 個月。因此，由於法律原因，我們無法在 6 月季度這樣做，我們預計從本季開始以更積極的方式開始這樣做。因此，我們傾向於非常有原則，專注於如何思考執行這一目標以及最終驅動我們如何思考部署公司現金流的原則。因此，我們計劃以系統化的方式進行這項工作，儘管我們確實有靈活性，可以在未來 12 個月內抓住機會。但我們期望加強我們的姿態，並且在完成 Orbotech 收購後我們將進一步加強我們的姿態。

The next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

On the significantly better sustainability of your business relative to others in the equipment market, you guys have always talked about your business as being more tied to the rate of new technology migration versus capacity addition. I think your EUV and mask inspection platform is a good example of that, Gen 5 is a good example of that. And it seems that technology migration cadence continues to be strong across all segments of the market. Is that at a high level, how we should think about the sustainability of your business here in the second half relative to what your peers are seeing out there that are probably more, a little bit more capacity-focused?

關於貴公司業務相對於設備市場上其他公司而言具有明顯更好的可持續性，你們一直表示，貴公司的業務與新技術遷移的速度而不是產能增加的速度更加緊密相關。我認為您的 EUV 和掩模檢測平台就是一個很好的例子，Gen 5 就是一個很好的例子。並且似乎技術遷移節奏在市場各個領域都持續強勁。從高層次來看，相對於您的同業可能更注重產能的情況，我們該如何看待貴公司下半年業務的可持續性？

Hey, Harlan, it's Rick. I think that's right. there's a couple of factors. One, we do have a more diversified set of customers as opposed to being pure play, and so we've got a number of elements, if you think about mask manufacturing, but also wafer manufacturing has been an important segment for us. And that has capacity and technology built into it as customers push the sensitivity requirements and flatness requirements of our wafer manufacturers, that drives the business cycle there. Reticles for new tapeouts for EUV, you talked about Gen 5, there's also -- it's also true in metrology products. So it's a broad base of customers all advancing technologies, both memory and logic. And we also have, of course, the activities that are going on in China. So pretty broad, and we feel good about the diversification of the customer base at this point.

嘿，哈蘭，我是瑞克。我認為那是對的。有幾個因素。首先，與單一業務相比，我們確實擁有更多樣化的客戶群，因此，如果您考慮掩模製造，我們會有很多元素，但晶圓製造對我們來說也是一個重要的部分。隨著客戶對我們晶圓製造商的靈敏度和平整度要求的提高，其產能和技術也隨之提升，從而推動了那裡的商業週期。您談到了第五代 EUV 新流片的光罩，計量產品中也是如此。因此，它擁有廣泛的客戶基礎，涵蓋所有先進技術，包括記憶體和邏輯。當然，我們也在中國開展活動。因此範圍相當廣泛，我們對目前客戶群的多樣化感到滿意。

And the other thing that you guys have talked about, and I'm wondering, again, how much does this add to a pretty strong second half demand profile, is that you guys have talked about strong new product pipeline, right, which, in some cases, is expanding your SAM opportunity like the Voyager platform, right, that you guys just recently introduced for post-litho development inspection. You also introduced your Surfscan SP7 tool. I hear you guys got 90% market share. Like, how is the new product cadence, and in some cases, the SAM expansion, helping the momentum here in the second half and into next year?

你們談到的另一件事，我再次想知道，這對下半年相當強勁的需求狀況有多大幫助，那就是你們談到了強大的新產品線，對吧，在某些情況下，這正在擴大你們的 SAM 機會，比如你們最近推出的用於光刻後開發檢查的 Voyager 平台。您也介紹了您的 Surfscan SP7 工具。我聽說你們佔了 90% 的市佔率。例如，新產品的節奏，以及在某些情況下，SAM 的擴展如何幫助下半年和明年的發展動能？

Well, we've always been a product company, Harlan. So we do need this innovation. And it does 2 things. One, it enables our customers to move their technology forward. It also makes it very challenging from a competitive standpoint for people to keep up with us given the rate of introduction and investment in new capability. And as you point out, we are bringing out new platforms that will have new addressable markets in addition to the ones that you've mentioned, with Voyager and SP7, there are other products in the pipeline. So it gives us a lot of confidence as we finish off calendar '18 and go into '19 and beyond, that we're well positioned not just to continue to perform across all sectors, but also drive additional growth through the additional expansion of our available markets.

嗯，我們一直是一家產品公司，哈蘭。所以我們確實需要這種創新。它有兩個作用。首先，它使我們的客戶能夠推動他們的技術進步。從競爭的角度來看，考慮到新功能的引進和投資速度，其他人想要跟上我們的步伐也變得非常具有挑戰性。正如您所指出的，除了您提到的 Voyager 和 SP7 之外，我們還推出了新的平台，這些平台將擁有新的目標市場，還有其他產品正在籌備中。因此，當我們結束 2018 年並邁入 2019 年及以後時，這給了我們很大的信心，我們不僅有能力繼續在所有領域表現出色，而且還能透過進一步擴大可用市場來推動額外的成長。

Hey, Harlan, it's Bren. The other thing I would add is it helps to offset some of the impact of [reuse]. When you bring new capability to market, customers want to try to use that capability, and so there is -- that becomes pretty attractive to them. It also brings favorable economics with each generation. So even if they don't need the capability, there's a cost of ownership improvement that comes with new generations of products. So even if they don't need the capability, they tend to -- there's an economic motive as well. So to Rick's point, it's important for our competitive positioning to maintain a cadence that's far ahead of what our competitors are doing, but also it provides an opportunity for customers to leverage the capability and for us to offset the impact of some of those kinds of things.

嘿，哈蘭，我是布倫。我想補充的另一件事是，它有助於抵消[重複使用]的一些影響。當你將新功能推向市場時，客戶想要嘗試使用該功能，因此這對他們來說非常有吸引力。這也為每一代帶來了有利的經濟狀況。因此，即使他們不需要這種功能，新一代產品的推出也會帶來擁有成本的提升。因此，即使他們不需要這種能力，他們也傾向於——這也是出於經濟動機。所以正如 Rick 所說，對於我們的競爭定位來說，保持遠遠領先於競爭對手的節奏非常重要，但這也為客戶提供了利用能力的機會，並讓我們有機會抵消某些事情的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question, with the adoption of ASC 606, can you still manage your business to a 6-month backlog? That's always been a core part of offering great visibility, et cetera. So curious what the ramifications are of this change in accounting standard.

我想，第一個問題是，採用 ASC 606 後，您還能將業務管理到 6 個月的積壓狀態嗎？這始終是提供出色可視性等的核心部分。所以我很好奇會計準則的這項變更會帶來什麼後果。

Yes, no. It's a good question, C.J. I think around the 6-month backlog in terms of orders to shipment, you'll see us continue to manage within that window. I'd ideally like to have that down closer to 5 versus 6. Where we will see the impact of 606 is that you will see revenue come to the P&L sooner. The standards around qualifying for revenue from a shipment perspective, you'll have more shipments effectively becoming revenue sooner. So where we will have -- with a consolidated customer base, you have more -- potentially, more volatility in the revenue number. We increased the range a little bit as a result of potentially that factor because it does reduce the daylight between shipments and revenue. But for our business, it should stay relatively consistent. I talked to some of the principal changes in the prepared remarks. But in terms of how we manage lead times to -- from order to shipment, that part of our business won't change.

是的，不是。這是個好問題，C.J。我認為從訂單到發貨大約需要 6 個月的積壓時間，你會看到我們繼續在這段時間內進行管理。我理想情況下希望將其降至接近 5 而不是 6。我們將看到 606 的影響是，您將看到收入更快進入損益表。從貨運角度來看，符合收入資格的標準，您將有更多的貨運能夠更快轉化為收入。因此，隨著客戶群的鞏固，我們的收入數字可能會出現更大的波動。由於這個因素，我們稍微增加了範圍，因為它確實減少了發貨和收入之間的差距。但對於我們的業務來說，它應該保持相對一致。我在準備好的演講稿中談到了一些主要的變化。但就我們如何管理從訂單到出貨的交貨時間而言，我們業務的這一部分不會改變。

Very helpful. And I guess as a follow-up, typically, I guess, in terms of new capacity adds, you guys outperform. And so as we look at your second half outperformance per the guide, is that indicative of capacity adds that we should start to see layering in, starting say, Q4, Q1, Q2? Is that a majority of it or is it more leverage to mask and wafer inspection where the full industry won't benefit from that? Any way to, sort of, help us understand the moving parts there?

非常有幫助。我想作為後續行動，通常，就新增產能而言，你們的表現會更出色。那麼，當我們根據指南查看您下半年的優異表現時，這是否表示我們應該開始看到產能增加，例如從第四季、第一季、第二季開始？這是其中的大部分嗎？還是說這只是掩模和晶圓偵測的槓桿作用，而整個產業不會從中受益？有什麼方法可以幫助我們了解其中的活動部件嗎？

Yes. So there are a lot of moving parts. I mean, you're right, I mean, reticle and wafer will have -- those businesses are ramping, and so that will have an impact into the first part of the year. The shipments into China, I don't expect that to abate, that's been fairly consistent. Obviously, big projects. It would seems -- like, over the course of this year, we've had a project a quarter pretty much. So we'll see how that plays out as you move into the next phases there. We're seeing foundry and logic start to come back in the second half profile, and that -- and if you look at the order mix, that, I think, is a pretty good harbinger for what we expect to see into the first part of next year in terms of a bigger contribution from those segments. So I hate to -- I wish I could give you more, but it is a bit of an all-the-above answer. But clearly, there are aspects, to Rick's point earlier, of the ramp around wafer and mask that is a bit unique to K-T.

是的。因此有很多活動部件。我的意思是，你是對的，我的意思是，光罩和晶圓將會——這些業務正在蓬勃發展，因此這將對今年上半年產生影響。我預計運往中國的貨物量不會減少，一直保持相當穩定。顯然，這是大項目。看起來，在今年內，我們幾乎每季都有一個項目。因此，我們將看到，當你們進入下一階段時，情況將如何發展。我們看到代工和邏輯在下半年開始復甦，如果你看一下訂單組合，我認為這是一個很好的預兆，我們預計明年上半年這些部門將做出更大的貢獻。所以我不想——我希望我能給你更多，但這有點像一個上述所有的答案。但顯然，正如 Rick 之前指出的那樣，晶圓和掩模周圍的斜坡有些方面是 K-T 獨有的。

Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Cowen and Co.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Krish Sankar。

I just had a question, looks like your memory numbers in calendar Q3 are in line with your peers. You're seeing a nice snapback in foundry. Can you just tell us, give us some color on what's driving those foundry shipments, is it one customer? Or is it across multiple customers? And along the same path, in December, the snapback you're seeing in memory, is it driven by DRAM or NAND? And I just have a follow-up after that.

我只是想問一個問題，看起來您在日曆 Q3 中的記憶數字與您的同行一致。您會看到鑄造廠出現了良好的反彈。您能否告訴我們，是什麼推動了這些代工廠的出貨量，是個客戶嗎？還是跨多個客戶？沿著同樣的路徑，在 12 月份，您看到的記憶體反彈是由 DRAM 還是 NAND 驅動的？之後我還會繼續跟進。

So on the foundry side it's -- I mean, we're seeing foundry and logic both come back. And so you've got multiple customers investing there, but certainly on the foundry side, one customer is investing more than others. On the -- I'm just taking a quick look here, so in September, we would expect it to be slightly weighted to DRAM of the memory mix.

因此，從代工方面來看——我的意思是，我們看到代工和邏輯都回歸了。因此，您有多個客戶在那裡投資，但肯定在代工方面，有一個客戶的投資比其他客戶多。在--我只是在這裡快速看一下，所以在9月份，我們預計它會稍微偏向內存組合中的DRAM。

Got it. And then as a follow-up question, I just wanted to find out, is there a way -- can you guys say how much of your total sales is exposed to EUV at this point? Is there a way to quantify that? And also the bare wafer inspection business has been pretty strong for a couple of quarters, how sustainable do you think this is?

知道了。然後作為後續問題，我只是想知道，有沒有辦法——你們能否說出目前你們的總銷售額中有多少是受到 EUV 影響的？有沒有辦法量化這一點？而且裸晶圓檢測業務在過去幾季一直表現強勁，您認為這種勢頭可持續多久？

We don't really quantify it around the EUV participation, but I would say it's on the order of 5% to 10%, depending on how you look at it. And certainly, there's development work that's going on. That will scale. We do think the process control intensity around the EUV is similar to what the process control intensity is for non-EUV, which means as EUV costs go up for scanners, the process control will scale with that. So that is definitely a consistent trend.

我們並沒有真正量化 EUV 的參與度，但我認為它在 5% 到 10% 左右，這取決於你如何看待它。當然，開發工作正在進行中。這將擴大。我們確實認為 EUV 周圍的製程控制強度與非 EUV 的製程控制強度相似，這意味著隨著掃描器的 EUV 成本上升，製程控制也會隨之擴大。所以這絕對是一個一致的趨勢。

And Krish, what was the second part of your question?

Krish，你的問題的第二部分是什麼？

The sustainability of the bare wafer inspection business?

裸晶圓檢測業務的可持續性？

Oh, so to Rick's comments in the prepared remarks, I mean, we're seeing significant investment there, both being driven by the strong memory environment. You've got increasing flatness specs, you've got cleanliness specs that are driving investments from the IC manufacturers. To support all that, you have the wafer manufacturers also investing. So they have to deliver wafers. They have under-invested for a number of years and so you're seeing new investment there against new specs. So I would expect those numbers to continue to be strong as we move, certainly, through this year and through next year as well. And as long as there's significant investment in memory, from a WFE perspective, we're going to continue to see that business participate pretty strongly.

哦，所以對於 Rick 在準備好的評論中的評論，我的意思是，我們看到那裡有大量的投資，這兩者都是由強大的內存環境推動的。平坦度規格和清潔度規格不斷提高，這些都在推動 IC 製造商的投資。為了支持這一切，晶圓製造商也進行了投資。所以他們必須運送晶圓。他們多年來一直投資不足，因此你會看到新的投資與新的規格相衝突。因此我預計這些數字將繼續保持強勁，當然，今年和明年也是如此。從 WFE 的角度來看，只要對記憶體進行大量投資，我們就會繼續看到該業務的強勁參與。

Your next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

The fundamentals in the flat panel display industry have sort of deteriorated since you announced Orbotech deal, so, Rick, I wanted to ask if your view on that part of the industry has changed long term.

自從你宣布與奧寶科技達成交易以來，平板顯示器行業的基本面已經有所惡化，所以，里克，我想問一下，你對該行業這一部分的看法是否發生了長期變化。

Well, we always had a through-cycle mentality looking at the businesses that Orbotech was in, that hasn't changed. And we're not really in a position to talk about their business yet. But in terms of the strategic nature of that deal, we feel very good about the original thesis and all the subsequent work we've done so far with that team. We're very excited about putting the 2 together. And obviously, we'll have a lot more to say once we finish the regulatory process.

嗯，我們始終以一種貫穿整個週期的心態來審視奧寶科技所從事的業務，這一點沒有改變。我們現在還不能真正談論他們的業務。但就該交易的戰略性質而言，我們對最初的論點以及迄今為止與該團隊一起完成的所有後續工作感到非常滿意。我們非常高興將兩者結合起來。顯然，一旦我們完成監管程序，我們就會有很多話要說。

Understood. And then secondly, Bren, you talked a little bit about service margins improving in the September quarter and that, to some extent, offsetting the decline in margins on the product front. Can you elaborate on that point and talk to sustainability in service margins?

明白了。其次，布倫，您談到了 9 月份季度服務利潤率的提高，這在一定程度上抵消了產品利潤率的下降。您能詳細闡述這一點並談談服務利潤的可持續性嗎？

Sure. I mean, there were minor changes there. I mean, one of the good things we're seeing in service now is that we've invested pretty significantly in China to add resources to support all of that business, both to be able to ramp those fabs and then support them over time. And as you know, they're geographically pretty dispersed. So between the field resources but also infrastructure to support all that activity, we've been investing pretty significantly over the last 12 to 18 months. We're now slowly completing that, and so we're starting to see the incremental margins flow through on service. So I would expect -- one good thing about the consolidated customer base is we're able to get -- to leverage service infrastructure, certainly in certain places like in China or -- well, we made the investments in China, but in Korea or in Taiwan, we're able to try to leverage those resources. So it's a good story, and I would expect to see service continue to do well. Obviously, it's dilutive to our overall gross margins, but the incremental offsets some of that ongoing dilution. But we believe the operating margin profile of the business is certainly strong and accretive to the overall company.

當然。我的意思是，那裡有一些細微的變化。我的意思是，我們現在在服務中看到的好事之一是，我們在中國投入了相當大的資金來增加資源來支持所有這些業務，既可以擴大這些晶圓廠的產能，也可以隨著時間的推移為它們提供支持。而且如你所知，他們的地理位置相當分散。因此，在過去的 12 到 18 個月中，我們在現場資源以及支援所有活動的基礎設施方面進行了相當大的投資。我們現在正在慢慢完成這個目標，因此我們開始看到增量利潤透過服務流入。因此，我期望——合併客戶群的一個好處是我們能夠利用服務基礎設施，當然在某些地方，例如中國——我們在中國進行了投資，但在韓國或台灣，我們能夠嘗試利用這些資源。這是一個好故事，我希望看到服務繼續表現良好。顯然，這會稀釋我們的整體毛利率，但增量會抵消部分持續的稀釋。但我們相信，該業務的營業利潤率肯定很強勁，並且能為整個公司帶來增值。

Your next question comes from the line of Mehdi Hosseini from SIG.

您的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Just looking at your shipment by geography, Korea was really strong this past fiscal year. I'm just trying to better understand, would you be able to qualitatively help me understand the mix, maybe perhaps between memory and bare wafer?

如果僅從地理來看你們的出貨量，那麼韓國在過去的財政年度表現確實非常強勁。我只是想更好地理解，您能否從定性上幫助我理解這種混合，也許是內存和裸晶圓之間的混合？

Oh, most of it is memory. In Korea, I mean, there is a little bare wafer, but most of it is memory.

噢，大部分都是記憶。我的意思是，在韓國，有一點裸晶圓，但大部分都是記憶體。

Okay, helpful. And then looking forward, there are a couple of new fabs coming online, Greenfield fabs. And I'm trying to assess how I should think about your new product scaling. Should we expect your revenue to -- or a percentage of your system revenue as a percentage of WFE finally to hit 10%-plus as your design wins are scaled, especially for 3D NAND and 2 of these new fabs are for 90-plus layer 3D NAND manufacturing, and would that give you opportunity to see a material increase in memory, especially NAND?

好的，有幫助。展望未來，將會有幾座新的晶圓廠和 Greenfield 晶圓廠上線。我正在嘗試評估我應該如何看待您的新產品擴充。隨著您的設計勝利不斷擴大，我們是否應該預期您的收入 - 或者您的系統收入佔 WFE 的百分比最終會達到 10％以上，特別是對於 3D NAND，其中 2 個新晶圓廠用於 90 層以上的 3D NAND 製造，這是否會讓您有機會看到內存，特別是 NAND 的材料增長？

Well, so we've been pretty pleased with the process control intensity improvement that we've seen in flash. And so it's been a good sign. I would expect that the new products, if we can continue to solve customer problems, we'll continue to see some momentum there. It's still about half that of what we see in foundry logic. So the intensity for lots of reasons is lower, but we are seeing incremental improvement. We've seen more metrology. We have new metrology products specifically targeted to that space which should help with that. So as we move forward, with the increasing foundry logic mix we would expect into next year -- really at kind of an all-time low this year, we would also expect that to influence the overall process control intensity as a percent of wafer fab. But we're encouraged about what we're seeing in 3D NAND. If we can continue to execute, hopefully, there's more there for us.

嗯，我們對快閃記憶體中看到的過程控制強度改進感到非常滿意。所以這是一個好兆頭。我希望，如果我們能夠繼續解決客戶問題，新產品將繼續帶來一些發展動能。它仍然只有我們在代工邏輯中看到的一半左右。因此，由於多種原因，強度較低，但我們正在看到逐步的改善。我們看到了更多的計量學。我們有專門針對該領域的新計量產品，應該會對此有所幫助。因此，隨著我們繼續前進，隨著我們預計明年代工邏輯組合將不斷增加——今年實際上處於歷史最低水平，我們也預計這將影響晶圓廠整體製程控制強度的百分比。但我們對 3D NAND 的進展感到鼓舞。如果我們能夠繼續執行，希望我們能獲得更多。

So Mehdi, just to build on that, the challenge has not been available problems to solve, the challenge has been solutions which solve those problems. And it's not a competitive challenge for us, it's just a feasibility. So it's taken some time to work and collaborate with those customers to get new technologies to market, really, to address the verticalization of NAND. And we have very strong products in the pipeline addressing that. So we think calendar '19, we'll see continued success with those initial penetrations. And that will be the basis for driving additional percent of WFE out of memory.

因此，Mehdi，在此基礎上，挑戰不在於解決現有的問題，而在於解決這些問題的解決方案。對我們來說，這不是一個競爭挑戰，而只是一種可行性。因此，我們花了一些時間與這些客戶合作，將新技術推向市場，真正解決 NAND 的垂直化問題。我們有非常強大的產品正在籌備中，可以解決這個問題。因此，我們認為，到 2019 年，我們將看到這些初步滲透繼續取得成功。這將成為導致 WFE 記憶體不足的額外百分比的基礎。

So one way or another, it should move higher. Right now, it's like 7% to 8% of WFE, it should move higher as...

因此，無論如何，它都應該走高。現在，它大約佔 WFE 的 7% 到 8%，它應該會更高...

Correct.

正確的。

Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的阿蒂夫馬利克 (Atif Malik)。

Two questions on China, Rick, my understanding is that the 3 key domestic Chinese product lines are almost done this year and the emphasis is to improve the yield. Given your position in the inspection market, can you just update us where the yield stand with those domestic projects, and then what your expectations are for the volume business to come from those projects? And then as a follow-up, if you can also talk about tariffs, any implications from tariffs on your supply chain or your business?

關於中國有兩個問題，里克，我的理解是，中國國內的三條主要產品線今年幾乎已經完成，重點是提高產量。鑑於您在檢視市場中的地位，您能否向我們介紹這些國內項目的收益情況，以及您對這些項目的業務量有何預期？然後作為後續問題，如果您可以談談關稅，關稅對您的供應鏈或業務有何影響？

Sure. The exciting thing is we have great partnerships with our customers in China looking at ramping greenfield facilities. And as you might imagine, there's a lot of interest in our expertise and capability there. So we're partnered very closely and we've had a lot of executive exchanges as well as others. So we feel very good about our ability to support their new fabs and their ramp. I won't get into specific of the yields, but they are making progress. We are seeing the promise of additional investment based on the initial success that they're seeing. And we feel very good about our position in enabling that as they go forward. And of course, it's -- in this case, it's really across the product portfolio. In terms of the implications of tariffs, our supply chain isn't based in China. So from a standpoint of our key components, we're not really subject to that. Obviously, we have an eye out for other changes that could be coming, but as of this point, it does not have any impact on our business.

當然。令人興奮的是，我們與中國客戶建立了良好的合作關係，致力於擴大綠地設施建設。正如您可能想像的那樣，人們對我們的專業知識和能力非常感興趣。因此，我們的合作非常密切，我們進行了許多高階主管交流以及其他交流。因此，我們對支持他們的新工廠和產能提升的能力感到非常滿意。我不會談論具體的收益，但他們正在取得進展。根據他們所取得的初步成功，我們看到了額外投資的希望。我們對自己在推動他們前進過程中所扮演的角色感到非常滿意。當然，在這種情況下，它確實涉及整個產品組合。就關稅的影響而言，我們的供應鏈並不在中國。因此，從我們的關鍵部件的角度來看，我們實際上並不受此影響。顯然，我們正在關注可能出現的其他變化，但截至目前，它對我們的業務沒有任何影響。

And then, Atif, just in terms of the investment profile, I mean, as we -- and just thinking about from an order perspective, and there is a little bit more lead time to these orders because in a lot of cases, they're building new facilities, but we've seen remarkable stability, if you just go back over the last couple of years and even as we look forward of the business levels we're seeing in China. So this year, we should book somewhere in the neighborhood, and I've said this before, somewhere in the neighborhood of about $600 million-or-so from indigenous China, and I would expect that level of investment to continue. And we'll see as we start getting -- we're a little ways away from what things will look like as we move into '19, but all indications at this point give me confidence that we're going to continue to see this level of investment from these players as we move forward.

然後，阿蒂夫，就投資概況而言，我的意思是，從訂單角度考慮，這些訂單的準備時間會更長一些，因為在很多情況下，他們正在建設新設施，但如果你回顧過去幾年，甚至展望我們在中國看到的業務水平，我們就看到了顯著的穩定性。因此，今年我們應該從中國本土獲得約 6 億美元的投資，我之前就說過，我預計這種投資水準將會持續下去。我們將會看到——我們距離進入 19 年的情況還有一段距離，但目前所有的跡像都讓我相信，隨著我們前進，我們將繼續看到這些參與者的這種程度的投資。

Your next question comes from the line of Mr. John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策先生。

I think you guys talked about in your prepared comments the September shipments from logic being down around 5%, which I think is the second lowest, in kind of our data set, at least. I'm kind of curious, as you think about the December recovery, is logic kind of helping bolster that view of a recovery December? Or is it still just mostly memory?

我想你們在準備好的評論中談到了 9 月邏輯出貨量下降了約 5%，我認為這至少是我們資料集中第二低的。我有點好奇，當您考慮 12 月的復甦時，邏輯是否有助於支持 12 月復甦的觀點？或者它仍然只是大部分的記憶？

Hi, John, Bren's here, too. I'll let him answer that one.

嗨，約翰，布倫也在這裡。我會讓他回答這個問題。

Yes. So John, you're right. I mean, September is fairly weak. So we do see some bounce-back in that segment. We also see bounce-back in foundry. So we do see this shifting profile of 40-ish percent-or-so of the shipment mix going to foundry, logic into the second half of the year. So yes, it looks like it's going to bounce back. And it looks like there's some sustainability to it into the first part of next year.

是的。約翰，你是對的。我的意思是，九月相當疲軟。因此我們確實看到該領域有所反彈。我們也看到代工業務出現反彈。因此，我們確實看到大約 40% 的出貨量組合轉向代工廠，這在下半年是合理的。是的，看起來它會反彈。看起來這種趨勢在明年上半年仍具有一定的可持續性。

That's helpful. And then, Rick, it's nice to see that despite the fact that WFE is mixing slightly more towards memory this year than last year that you guys are still significantly outgrowing WFE. I'm curious, to what extent do you think that's just better leverage to memory versus kind of EUV playing out this year? And you talked about kind of the process intensity of NAND, how should we think about 1Y and 1Z on the DRAM front?

這很有幫助。然後，里克，很高興看到，儘管今年 WFE 比去年稍微更多地混合了內存，但你們仍然遠遠超過了 WFE。我很好奇，您認為與今年推出的 EUV 相比，這在多大程度上對記憶體有更好的利用？您談到了 NAND 的工藝強度，我們應該如何看待 DRAM 方面的 1Y 和 1Z？

So the -- I think the part that's maybe a little misunderstood and we need to do a better job of explaining it, is things like the wafer manufacturers, there is high capital intensity of inspection and metrology for those, and they're really feeding the memory guys. So it's probably the case that our intensity around memory is higher than the way it's traditionally thought of. So we're seeing a lot of benefit in the demands that are placed on wafers as they move to new technologies in memory because of the cleanliness and also the flatness. So that's actually been a boost. And then as you point out, John, the EUV factor is still there. And then lastly, we'd say the process control intensity in China has been supportive of the overall business environment for us as we have great positions there in their early stages of trying to ramp new facilities. So I think all of those factors have come together to give us a very nice 2018 and what looks like a very strong 2019.

所以——我認為可能有點誤解的部分，我們需要更好地解釋它，例如晶圓製造商，它們的檢查和計量資本密集度很高，而且它們確實在為記憶體製造商提供供應。因此，我們對記憶的關注程度可能比傳統觀念還要高。因此，我們看到，隨著晶圓轉向記憶體的新技術，對晶圓的要求因清潔度和平整度而有很大好處。這實際上是一種推動。正如你所指出的，約翰，EUV 因素仍然存在。最後，我們要說的是，中國的過程控制強度對我們整體的商業環境起到了支持作用，因為我們在他們試圖擴大新設施的早期階段就佔據了有利地位。所以我認為所有這些因素共同作用，讓我們度過了一個非常美好的 2018 年，並且 2019 年看起來也將是一個非常強勁的 2019 年。

Your next question comes from the line of Mr. Edwin Mok from Needham.

您的下一個問題來自尼德姆的 Edwin Mok 先生。

First question, on the foundry side. You mentioned that there's improvement on foundry shipment from September to December. If I calculate correctly, second half is actually really strong versus first half. Is it all driven by 7-nanometer? Or are you seeing (inaudible) 5-nanometer? And then just kind of tied to 5-nanometer, should we expect a much higher level of Gen 5 adoption of 5-nanometer versus 7? Can you kind of talk about the Gen 5 progress there?

第一個問題，關於代工方面。您提到9月至12月代工廠出貨量有所改善。如果我計算正確的話，下半場實際上比上半場表現強勁。這一切都是由 7 奈米推動的嗎？還是您看到的是（聽不清楚）5奈米？那麼，就某種程度上與 5 奈米相關而言，我們是否應該預期第 5 代採用 5 奈米的含量會比 7 奈米高得多？能談談第五代技術的進展嗎？

I think there's a couple of ways to think about it. It's early for 5 but EUV activity drives a lot of the business in the mask shop. And so we're seeing a benefit from that in terms of our business in mask is doing quite well. Also, wafer manufacturers are very supportive of bringing in new capability, so we're seeing that as a driver. And then you do see Gen 5, and you see actually some of the metrology tools, too, in support of the new nodes. So I think it's really a combination of those factors that gives us the diversification of reach across to the customers and is really driving the general outperform.

我認為有幾種方法可以思考這個問題。雖然現在還為時過早，但 EUV 活動推動了掩模店的大量業務。因此，我們從中看到了好處，我們的口罩業務做得很好。此外，晶圓製造商非常支持引入新功能，因此我們將其視為一個驅動力。然後您會看到 Gen 5，並且您實際上也會看到一些支援新節點的計量工具。所以我認為這些因素的結合使得我們能夠接觸到多樣化的客戶，並真​​正推動了整體表現的優異。

Yes. And I think the other thing that's happening, is you are seeing an increase in 7-nanometer tapeouts moving through the foundries. And so, a, that's driving certain reticle capabilities, not just writers, but then inspectors from us, but we would expect some follow-on capacity additions to support that business. As we move into '19 and you start to see some of that investment around 5-nanometer development. Certainly Gen 5 plays a bigger role on that. I would expect that business to grow next year versus this year, just driven by some of these dynamics.

是的。我認為正在發生的另一件事是，你會看到代工廠中 7 奈米製程的流片數量增加。因此，這推動了某些標線能力的發展，不僅是寫入器，還有我們的檢查器，但我們期望增加一些後續能力來支援該業務。隨著我們進入 2019 年，您會開始看到一些圍繞 5 奈米開發的投資。毫無疑問，第五代技術在其中發揮更大的作用。我預計，受這些動態的推動，明年的業務將比今年有所成長。

Great, that was extremely helpful. And then just a question on the kind of OpEx and maybe I guess, operating leverage on the model. Bren, do you think you can sustain OpEx at this level? It seems like December you're going to grow quite a bit and sounds like you guys are upbeat on, at least, in the first half of '19. Do you think you can maintain OpEx at this level or just grow OpEx modestly, can you talk about that?

太棒了，這非常有幫助。然後我只想問一下關於營運支出的類型，也許我猜，還有模型上的營運槓桿。布倫，你認為你能維持這個水準的營運支出嗎？看起來你們 12 月會成長不少，聽起來你們至少對 19 年上半年感到樂觀。您認為您可以將營運支出維持在這個水平還是只是適度增加營運支出，您能談談嗎？

Yes, we think the OpEx is going to trend in line with the model that we published. So we're operating about 50 to 100 basis points above that model for these revenue levels given the commentary we provided around next year sort of fits within that. So I would see the OpEx scaling a little bit in line with the models we've published. We try to drive incremental margins, certainly greater than 40%, target 40% to 50% on our incremental margins. So there's a number of new programs we're investing in, new platforms supporting EUV, supporting X-ray metrology, so -- and in addition there's a couple of things that we just recently announced and there's follow-on activity around those. So I would expect us to continue to invest. We're going to deliver to the model we've been public with, and we're going to continue to try to drive leverage through. But given the level of business we're seeing, I feel pretty good about the sustainability of our investment profile.

是的，我們認為營運支出將按照我們發布的模型呈現趨勢。因此，考慮到我們對明年提供的評論符合這一標準，我們的營運收入水準將比該模型高出約 50 到 100 個基點。因此，我認為營運支出的規模會與我們發布的模型略有一致。我們試圖提高增量利潤率，肯定要高於 40%，目標是將增量利潤率提高到 40% 到 50%。因此，我們正在投資許多新項目，支援 EUV 的新平台，支援 X 射線計量的新平台，此外，我們最近還宣布了一些事情，並且圍繞這些事情開展了後續活動。所以我希望我們繼續投資。我們將推行我們已經公開的模式，並將繼續努力發揮槓桿作用。但考慮到我們所看到的業務水平，我對我們的投資狀況的可持續性感到相當滿意。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Mr. Patrick Ho from Stifel.

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho 先生。

Rick, I appreciate the color you've given on some of the increasing capital intensity trend on the memory side. Maybe as a follow-up to John's question earlier about DRAM and the 1X and 1Y, you talked about the cleanliness and some of the issues there. As the DRAM industry moves to 1Y and you see a lot more of these multi-patterning steps and even some of the process change to where they become, I guess, more logic-like, is that also helping to increase the process control intensity given that they're more logic-like, and obviously, those -- that's been your key bread-and-butter for years?

里克，我很欣賞你對內存方面資本密集度不斷增加的趨勢的闡釋。也許作為約翰之前關於 DRAM 和 1X 和 1Y 的問題的後續，您談到了清潔度和其中的一些問題。隨著 DRAM 行業進入 1Y，您會看到更多這樣的多重圖案化步驟，甚至一些工藝也變得更像邏輯，這是否也有助於提高工藝控制強度，因為它們更像邏輯，顯然，這些 —— 這是您多年來的主要收入來源？

Well, certainly, we are seeing interest in some adoption of Gen 5 in the DRAM guys as they look at 1Y, so, absolutely, we're seeing that. And that wasn't necessarily originally anticipated, the degree with which we've seen that strength but it just -- it kind of goes to the point of the desire to get more capability in there and the fact that the coverage matters quite a bit. So we've displaced some interest that people had, had at e-beam for those applications with Gen 5. So we feel very good about that, and we're definitely getting indications that there's more to come there. It's not just that, it's also registration. So if you think about DRAM and the challenges it has for registration, we see more adoption there as well. So we feel very good about the trends that we're seeing in memory as well.

嗯，當然，我們看到 DRAM 廠商對採用第五代技術很感興趣，因為他們著眼於 1Y，所以，絕對地，我們看到了這一點。這不一定是最初預料到的，我們看到了這種強度的程度，但它只是——它有點達到了想要獲得更多能力的程度，而且覆蓋範圍相當重要。因此，我們用 Gen 5 取代了人們對電子束應用的一些興趣。因此，我們對此感到非常高興，而且我們確實得到了一些跡象，表明未來還會有更多應用。不僅如此，還有註冊。因此，如果您考慮 DRAM 及其在註冊方面面臨的挑戰，我們也會看到它在那裡得到更多的採用。因此，我們對記憶中看到的趨勢也感到非常滿意。

So Patrick, we're encouraged. Right now -- we're trying to be a little more conservative in terms of how we model it, just given the historic behavior from these customers, but we deliver -- believe that we can deliver any capability here around some of these problems that, that's an opportunity for us. Most of the context they provide around performance and intensity levels is based on little improvement there. So if we can drive improvement and process control intensity, then that's an opportunity for us to deliver incremental upside to, sort of, the base model about how we're running the business over the next few years.

所以派崔克，我們很受鼓舞。現在 - 考慮到這些客戶的歷史行為，我們試圖在建模方面更加保守一些，但我們相信我們可以圍繞這些問題提供任何能力，這對我們來說是一個機會。他們提供的有關性能和強度水平的大部分資訊都是基於很少的改進。因此，如果我們能夠推動改進和過程控制強度，那麼這對我們來說就是一個機會，可以為我們未來幾年經營業務的基本模式帶來增量優勢。

Great. And Bren, maybe as my follow-up question in terms of services, you talked about 75% of your revenues are coming from, I guess, the service contracts to date. But unlike process tools, which, in many cases, can eat themselves up and it just becomes a kind of recurring revenue stream of replacing parts, can you give a little color of the type of value-added solution or some of the product enhancements that process control can offer and how that can grow?

偉大的。布倫，也許作為我關於服務方面的後續問題，您談到 75% 的收入來自迄今為止的服務合約。但是與製程工具不同，在許多情況下，製程工具會自我消耗，並成為一種更換零件的經常性收入流，您能否稍微介紹一下製程控制可以提供的增值解決方案類型或一些產品增強功能，以及它如何發展？

Well, I mean, certainly, the contract profile -- you've got it pretty well, where there's a limited number of these tools. They're very important to keep them up, and customers want a contract structure to ensure that the uptime and availability is there. And so the 75% certain level of contract as a percent of the total has been fairly consistent at that level. So we feel very good about the sustainability of that over time, as they stretch the installed base. We're continuing to look for opportunities to sell incremental enhancements to the installed base. As you know, there's a lot of trailing-edge activity that's happening to support automotive and IoT. They're running those older fabs in the installed base much hotter. So there's incremental demand for those customers to not only drive higher uptime for their tools, which is driving the business, but also to buy enhancements to the current installed base. And those fabs are full. So it's not like, in some cases, you can move in extra tools, you're going to add incremental capability to the existing tool, whether it's speed or increased sensitivity. So we're pursuing and looking at those opportunities and given the stratification of demand for semi, it creates an interesting opportunity for us going forward.

嗯，我的意思是，當然，合約概況——你已經很清楚了，這些工具的數量是有限的。保持它們的正常運作非常重要，客戶希望有一個合約結構來確保正常運作時間和可用性。因此，75% 的確定性合約水準佔總數的百分比一直相當穩定。因此，隨著他們擴大安裝基礎，我們對這種做法的長期可持續性感到非常樂觀。我們將繼續尋找機會向已安裝的基礎產品銷售增量增強產品。如您所知，目前有許多前沿活動正在進行以支援汽車和物聯網。他們在已安裝的基座中運行那些較舊的晶圓廠，溫度要高得多。因此，這些客戶不僅需要提高其工具的正常運作時間（從而推動業務發展），還需要購買現有安裝基礎的增強功能。那些晶圓廠已經滿了。因此，在某些情況下，您並不是可以引入額外的工具，而是要為現有工具添加增量功能，無論是速度還是增加靈敏度。因此，我們正在尋求並尋找這些機會，並考慮到半導體需求的分層，這為我們未來的發展創造了一個有趣的機會。

And maybe a very significant difference between process control, service business and process business, is the availability of alternative suppliers for consumables. So if you're in a process company, you have that threat of outside sources providing consumables. Process control, we have a very strong position to enable and make this equipment continue to perform as it's designed, and that's really a big part of the value proposition. So they are different businesses.

製程控制、服務業務和製程業務之間可能存在一個非常顯著的區別，那就是消耗品是否有替代供應商。因此，如果您在一家流程型公司，您將面臨外部來源提供消耗品的威脅。在製程控制方面，我們擁有非常強大的優勢，能夠使該設備繼續按照設計運行，這確實是價值主張的重要組成部分。所以它們是不同的生意。

Your next question comes from the line of Sidney Ho from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Your logic foundry customer in Taiwan talked about improving manufacturing efficiencies. From your experience with them, do they -- their CapEx cost impacting all the equipment types equally, or do you think that will impact you guys less because process control is more front-end loaded? And clearly, your guidance for September quarter is very good. Do you think it is more than offset by the spending on 7-nanometers and EUV?

您在台灣的邏輯代工客戶談到了提高製造效率。根據您與他們合作的經驗，他們的資本支出成本是否對所有設備類型產生同等影響，或者您認為這對您的影響較小，因為製程控制更注重前端？顯然，您對九月份季度的指導非常好。您是否認為 7 奈米和 EUV 方面的支出足以抵消這一損失？

Well, I think there's 2 sides of it. One, we like to believe we enable better capital efficiency by helping customers get more value out of the rest of their tools. On the other hand, of course, every customer is trying to manage all their costs and to work across the products to extend and reuse. And as Bren said, one of the keys to our success is to continually bring out new products and new capabilities as a counter. What you've clearly got to show is continued improvement in cost of ownership performance, which means more capability. So I think the answer is kind of both. I think you definitely see a push from all of our customers to enhance their sustainability of their investment, and by doing that, drive efficiency. And we enable that and we also try to support it by driving new capabilities.

嗯，我認為這有兩個面向。首先，我們相信，透過幫助客戶從其他工具中獲得更多價值，我們可以實現更好的資本效率。另一方面，當然，每個客戶都在嘗試管理所有成本，並跨產品擴展和重複使用。正如布倫所說，我們成功的關鍵之一是不斷推出新產品和新功能作為應對。您必須清楚展示的是擁有成本績效的持續改善，這意味著更強大的能力。所以我認為答案是兩者兼具。我認為您肯定會看到我們所有的客戶都在努力提高其投資的可持續性，並透過這樣做來提高效率。我們實現了這一點，我們也嘗試透過推動新功能來支援它。

Okay, great. My follow-up question is related to China. You talked about your shipment strength in China this quarter, this June quarter. About a year ago, you talked about China as a region has a potential SAM for process control for about $5 billion between 2017 and 2020. Given your comment that Chinese manufacturer seems to have higher process control intensity, do you think that estimate is higher, lower, or is just about the same?

好的，太好了。我的後續問題與中國有關。您談到了本季即六月季度在中國的出貨量。大約一年前，您談到中國在 2017 年至 2020 年期間在製程控制領域的潛在 SAM 價值約為 50 億美元。鑑於您所說的中國製造商似乎具有更高的製程控制強度，您認為該估計值是更高、更低還是差不多？

I think it's too early to say. I mean, we've seen, in the same time, we've seen some softening in the forecast for the total wafer outs in China, so I don't know that we could speculate on that. We are pleased with the production, the support and the business that we've got in China, but I would say if they meet their published goals, then we'll exceed that target. However, I think there's some definite challenges that they've got in terms of scaling those factories over time in the next couple of years.

我認為現在說還為時過早。我的意思是，與此同時，我們看到對中國晶圓總產量的預測有所減弱，所以我不知道我們是否可以對此進行推測。我們對在中國的生產、支援和業務感到滿意，但我想說，如果他們實現了公佈的目標，那麼我們就會超越這個目標。然而，我認為在未來幾年內，他們在擴大這些工廠的規模方面將面臨一些明確的挑戰。

Your next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。

One more on China. So shipments there were 32% of total versus 19%, 18% kind of levels. Were there any one-offs? And I think somewhere during the prepared remarks, you mentioned that you expect China to stay around the $600 million contribution level next year? So kind of flat. I just wanted to confirm I heard that right.

再說一個關於中國的問題。因此那裡的出貨量佔總出貨量的 32%，而其他水準則為 19% 或 18%。有沒有一次性的事情？我記得您在準備好的發言中提到過，您預計中國明年的捐款水準將維持在 6 億美元左右？有點平坦。我只是想確認我聽得對。

You did. I mean, that's an order level, and so what actually -- how much actually ships and revenues may deviate a bit, although we've been -- things have been pretty consistent in and around that level. So that's a reasonable number to use as you think moving forward. And if you look last quarter, there was significant vertical NAND project that we shipped to. This quarter, there's a significant DRAM project, it's not all the business but certainly a big part of it.

你做到了。我的意思是，這是一個訂單水平，那麼實際上 - 實際上船舶和收入可能會有一點偏差，儘管我們一直 - 事情在這個水平上和周圍一直相當一致。因此，當您考慮前進時，這是一個合理的數字。如果你看一下上個季度，你會發現我們運送了大量垂直 NAND 項目。本季有一個重要的 DRAM 項目，雖然不是全部業務，但肯定是其中很大一部分。

Got it. And then on the services side, is there a backlog number we should keep in mind? Or I guess asked in a different way, if we assume that WFE is conceptually flat next year, can you still grow your services business at a double-digit pace?

知道了。那麼在服務方面，我們是否應該記住積壓數量？或者我想換個方式問，如果我們假設明年 WFE 在概念上持平，那麼您的服務業務還能以兩位數的速度成長嗎？

I mean, the way the service business generally works is you have book and ship in the same quarter. There's some extended warranty backlog but it's pretty minor. So there isn't a backlog number, but it's continuous in terms of the contracts that we signed. And then we get the PO that are consistent with those contracts.

我的意思是，服務業務通常的運作方式是在同一季度預訂和發貨。有一些延長保固積壓問題，但數量很少。因此，沒有積壓數量，但就我們簽署的合約而言，它是連續的。然後我們得到與這些合約一致的採購訂單。

But the other thing that contributes to it, if you think about the installed base and how long it lasts, one of the things driving, if you will, IoT or automotive, is fabs being utilized longer, customers wanting more capability, wanting both enhancements and also those tools to run longer. So the decay rate of what we would have originally modeled of tools coming off contract, is slower. And that's how you can drive growth even in a flat systems shipment business, which we don't think ours would be flat, by the way. Even if WFE is flat, we're going to grow this year. So we think there's still a lot of energy left in the sustainability of the growth in services.

但另一個因素是，如果你考慮安裝基礎及其持續時間，那麼推動物聯網或汽車發展的因素之一是晶圓廠的利用時間更長，客戶希望擁有更多功能，既希望增強功能，也希望這些工具能夠運行更長時間。因此，我們最初模擬的工具合約到期後的衰減速度較慢。這就是即使在系統出貨業務持平的情況下也能推動成長的方法，順便說一句，我們認為我們的業務不會持平。即使 WFE 持平，我們今年仍會成長。因此我們認為服務業的可持續成長仍有很大的潛力。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Given how far behind China is in terms of mainstream technology adoption, given that they do have a track record of higher process control intensity, have you guys seen any Gen 5 pull-ins from China, which may help them to accelerate the yield learning? And then just a quick follow-up, in terms of keeping the product pipeline healthy, can you just give us an update on the multicolumn e-beam EUV reticle inspection platform, is that still on track for introduction next year?

考慮到中國在主流技術採用方面落後多少，考慮到他們確實擁有更高工藝控制強度的記錄，你們是否看到過中國的任何第五代引入，這可能有助於他們加速產量學習？然後只是快速跟進一下，就保持產品線健康而言，您能否向我們提供有關多柱電子束 EUV 光罩檢測平台的最新信息，該平台是否仍有望在明年推出？

Boy, those are 2 very different questions, Harlan. So in terms of the indigenous China projects, we have not seen demand yet for Gen 5 for those projects. We think that's down the road for the guys that are doing memory. That's something that certainly we could envision down the road once -- as you say. Right now, that's not really their focus nor at this point is it their need we can satisfy with a number of the products that we already have. In terms of the multi-beam product, we continue to make investment. We continue to work through some of the technical hurdles, and we have a lot of close engagements with our customers on that. And there's clearly a lot of customer interest, but I won't go beyond that at this point.

天哪，這是兩個非常不同的問題，哈蘭。因此，就中國本土計畫而言，我們尚未看到這些計畫對 Gen 5 的需求。我們認為，對於從事記憶研究的人來說，這是未來的發展方向。正如您所說，這是我們將來可以想像的事情。目前，這並不是他們真正關注的重點，目前他們的需求也不是我們可以透過現有的一些產品來滿足的。在多光束產品方面，我們持續進行投資。我們將繼續努力克服一些技術障礙，並就此與客戶進行密切的接觸。顯然有很多客戶感興趣，但我現在不會進一步談論這個。

There are no further questions. Presenters, I'll turn the call over back to you.

沒有其他問題了。主持人，我將把電話轉回給你們。

Thank you, Lance, and thank you all for joining us today and your ongoing interest in ownership of KLA-Tencor. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝你，蘭斯，也謝謝大家今天加入我們，並感謝你們對 KLA-Tencor 所有權的持續關注。享受剩餘的一天。

This concludes this conference. You may now disconnect.

本次會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。