科磊 (KLAC) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

下午好。

My name is Chantelle, and I will be your conference operator today.

我叫 Chantelle，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA-Tencor First Quarter Fiscal Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 KLA-Tencor 2019 財年第一季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Thank you.

（操作員說明）謝謝。

Ed Lockwood, with KLA-Tencor Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Ed Lockwood，KLA-Tencor 投資者關係部，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, Chantelle.

謝謝你，尚特爾。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議。

Joining me on our call today are Rick Wallace, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加我們電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Rick Wallace；以及我們的首席財務官布倫·希金斯 (Bren Higgins)。

We're here today to discuss quarterly results for the period ended September 30, 2018.

我們今天在這裡討論截至 2018 年 9 月 30 日的季度業績。

We released these results this afternoon at 1:15 p.m.

我們今天下午 1:15 發布了這些結果。

Pacific Time.

太平洋時間。

If you haven't seen the release, you can find it in our website.

如果您還沒有看到該版本，您可以在我們的網站上找到它。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務業績的討論將在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行。

A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release and in the investor presentation on KLA-Tencor's Investor Relations website.

有關 GAAP 與非 GAAP 業績的詳細調節表，請參閱今天的收益新聞稿以及 KLA-Tencor 投資者關係網站上的投資者演示文稿。

There, you'll also find a calendar of future investor events, presentations and conferences as well as links to KLA-Tencor's SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2018.

在那裡，您還可以找到未來投資者活動、演示和會議的日曆以及 KLA-Tencor 的 SEC 文件的鏈接，包括我們截至 2018 年 6 月 30 日的年度 10-K 表格年度報告。

In those filings, you'll find descriptions of risk factors that could impact our future results.

在這些文件中，您會找到可能影響我們未來業績的風險因素的描述。

As you know, our future results are subject to risks.

如您所知，我們未來的業績存在風險。

Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA-Tencor cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true.

任何前瞻性陳述（包括我們今天在電話會議上做出的陳述）都面臨這些風險，並且 KLA-Tencor 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述將會實現。

Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

我們的實際結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在很大差異。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.

這樣，我就把電話轉給里克。

Thank you, Ed, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝你，艾德，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

KLA-Tencor delivered another outstanding result in the September quarter, driven by the company's technology and market leadership, and the compelling value of our diversified product and service portfolio in enabling customer success.

KLA-Tencor 在9 月季度取得了另一項出色的業績，這得益於公司的技術和市場領先地位，以及我們多元化產品和服務組合在幫助客戶取得成功方面所具有的引人注目的價值。

The September quarter results also show the company is benefiting from our strategies for market leadership and revenue diversification.

九月季度的業績還表明，該公司正受益於我們的市場領導力和收入多元化戰略。

Furthermore, they demonstrate the critical nature of process control in enabling technology inflections in the semiconductor industry, including growth markets such as vertical NAND, EUV adoption and the China semiconductor industry.

此外，它們還展示了流程控制在半導體行業（包括垂直 NAND、EUV 採用和中國半導體行業等增長市場）中實現技術轉變的關鍵性質。

And with the expected closing this quarter of the Orbotech acquisition, KLA-Tencor will further extend its market reach in the electronics value chain, enhancing the company's product and services portfolio beyond our core and WFE to address new growth markets where technological complexity is rising and where KLA can extend its core competencies into exciting new opportunities.

隨著Orbotech 收購預計在本季度完成，KLA-Tencor 將進一步擴大其在電子價值鏈中的市場覆蓋範圍，增強公司在核心和WFE 之外的產品和服務組合，以應對技術複雜性不斷上升的新增長市場KLA 可以將其核心能力擴展到令人興奮的新機遇。

Now for some perspective on the current industry demand environment.

現在對當前行業需求環境進行一些展望。

First, notwithstanding the recent adjustments in capacity investment from memory customers, and delays in logic spend from the second half of 2018 into 2019, we believe the long-term factors underpinning demand in the wafer fab equipment industry remain sound.

首先，儘管近期內存客戶產能投資有所調整，且邏輯支出從2018年下半年推遲至2019年，但我們認為支撐晶圓廠設備行業需求的長期因素仍然良好。

This is a result of several key elements, including more diversified end markets for semiconductor; the ongoing commitment of customers to driving innovation and leading-edge technology road maps; disciplined, market-driven capacity planning; and the high levels of investment required to address increased design complexity and advanced device architectures.

這是幾個關鍵因素的結果，包括半導體終端市場更加多元化；客戶對推動創新和領先技術路線圖的持續承諾；嚴格的、市場驅動的容量規劃；以及解決日益增加的設計複雜性和先進設備架構所需的高額投資。

We expect these industry drivers will persist in delivering long-term growth and value-creation opportunities for the company, the industry and for all our stakeholders.

我們預計這些行業驅動因素將持續為公司、行業和所有利益相關者帶來長期增長和價值創造機會。

Moving now to the recent highlights that demonstrate successful execution of the company's strategic focus on technology and market leadership.

現在來看最近的亮點，這些亮點表明公司成功執行了對技術和市場領先地位的戰略重點。

First as the market leader in process control, KLA-Tencor is helping to enable growth in the semiconductor industry in China.

首先，作為過程控制領域的市場領導者，KLA-Tencor 正在幫助中國半導體行業的發展。

Memory and foundry manufacturers in this region are investing at a high level to accelerate process development and yield learning.

該地區的存儲器和代工製造商正在進行高水平投資，以加速工藝開發和良率學習。

We expect momentum in China to continue in 2019 and beyond, with customers progressing their technology road maps and ramping new production capacity in the initial phase of a multiyear investment cycle.

我們預計中國的勢頭將在 2019 年及以後持續，客戶將在多年投資週期的初始階段推進其技術路線圖並提高新產能。

Additionally, over the past several quarters, we've seen exceptional demand for bare wafer and mask inspection products.

此外，在過去的幾個季度中，我們看到對裸晶圓和掩模檢測產品的巨大需求。

Growth in our mask inspection business is consistent with planned increases in CapEx from the leading foundries as these customers ramp 7-nanometer capacity to support a high number of customer tapeouts at this node and begin aggressive development of 5-nanometer, including EUV development.

我們掩模檢測業務的增長與領先代工廠的資本支出計劃增長一致，因為這些客戶提高了 7 納米產能，以支持該節點的大量客戶流片，並開始積極開發 5 納米，包括 EUV 開發。

In bare wafer, KLA's market-leading inspection metrology tools are key enablers of the growth in wafer supply to address capacity expansion in memory.

在裸晶圓方面，KLA 市場領先的檢測計量工具是晶圓供應增長的關鍵推動力，以解決存儲器容量擴張的問題。

These products are also essential in helping customers in all segments meet more stringent design specification for wafer flatness and cleanliness.

這些產品對於幫助各個領域的客戶滿足更嚴格的晶圓平整度和清潔度設計規範也至關重要。

And finally, KLA-Tencor's service business continues to be a highlight.

最後，KLA-Tencor 的服務業務仍然是一大亮點。

Going forward, it is on a trajectory to deliver high single-digit to low double-digit annual revenue growth with low business volatility consistent with historical trends.

展望未來，該公司有望實現年收入高個位數至低兩位數增長，且業務波動性低，符合歷史趨勢。

Long-term growth in services is tied to the expansion of the installed base as well as from the increasing uptime requirements from current node production and at the trailing edge.

服務的長期增長與安裝基礎的擴大以及當前節點生產和後緣的正常運行時間要求的增加有關。

Trailing edge fabs are currently running at near full utilization, creating new opportunities for product enhancements and upgrades.

後緣晶圓廠目前接近滿負荷運行，為產品增強和升級創造了新的機會。

In summary, before I turn the call over to Bren, KLA-Tencor delivered another outstanding performance in the September quarter driven by the company's strong execution and market leadership.

總之，在我將電話轉交給 Bren 之前，KLA-Tencor 在公司強大的執行力和市場領導力的推動下，在 9 月季度再次取得了出色的業績。

Given our momentum in the marketplace, diversified growth markets and the critical role the company's products and services play in enabling customer success, we are positioned for a strong finish in 2018.

鑑於我們在市場上的勢頭、多元化的增長市場以及公司的產品和服務在幫助客戶取得成功方面發揮的關鍵作用，我們準備在 2018 年取得強勁的成績。

I'd now like to turn the call over to Bren for his review of the financial results.

我現在想把電話轉給布倫，請他審查財務業績。

Bren?

布倫？

Thanks, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝瑞克，大家下午好。

As Rick highlighted in his opening remarks, the September quarter delivered excellent financial results for the company.

正如 Rick 在開場白中強調的那樣，九月季度為公司帶來了出色的財務業績。

Shipments, revenue, gross margin and GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share all came in at the upper end of the range of guidance in the quarter.

出貨量、收入、毛利率以及公認會計準則和非公認會計準則稀釋後每股收益均位於本季度指導範圍的上限。

Revenue was $1.09 billion; GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.54; and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.46.

收入為10.9億美元； GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 2.54 美元；非 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 2.46 美元。

The primary difference between GAAP and non-GAAP earnings was a discrete tax benefit taken in the quarter related to new guidance affecting our adoption of the new tax law in the United States.

公認會計原則和非公認會計原則收益之間的主要區別是本季度獲得的與影響我們在美國採用新稅法的新指導相關的離散稅收優惠。

As a reminder, since this is the first quarter of our new fiscal year 2019, our results reflect the adoption of ASC 606 for revenue recognition.

提醒一下，由於這是我們 2019 年新財年的第一季度，我們的業績反映了採用 ASC 606 進行收入確認。

We have adopted the new standard using the modified retrospective approach.

我們採用修改後的追溯法採用新準則。

Therefore, all revenue commentary in our results and guidance exclusively reflect our adoption of the new standard, and we do not plan to provide any color related to the financial results under the previous standard.

因此，我們的業績和指引中的所有收入評論僅反映我們採用新準則的情況，我們不打算提供與舊準則下的財務業績相關的任何色彩。

In today's press release, you'll find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share.

在今天的新聞稿中，您將找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益的調節表。

As a reminder, unless I explicitly refer to GAAP results, my commentary will be solely focused on the non-GAAP results, which exclude the adjustments covered in the press release.

提醒一下，除非我明確提及 GAAP 業績，否則我的評論將僅關注非 GAAP 業績，其中不包括新聞稿中涵蓋的調整。

Now for highlights for -- of the September demand environment in terms of shipments.

現在重點介紹九月份出貨量的需求環境。

Total shipments were $1.007 billion, above the $975 million midpoint and at the top end of guidance for the quarter, driven by strength in memory and an expected sequential increase in shipments to foundry customers.

受內存實力和代工客戶出貨量預計連續增長的推動，總出貨量為 10.07 億美元，高於 9.75 億美元的中點，並處於本季度指導的上限。

Looking forward, we are modeling December quarter shipments to be in a range of $985 million to $1.065 billion, consistent with the update we provided in early September.

展望未來，我們預計 12 月季度的出貨量將在 9.85 億美元至 10.65 億美元之間，這與我們在 9 月初提供的更新一致。

Our current outlook is for shipments in the first half of calendar 2019 to be modestly higher compared with the second half of 2018.

我們目前的預期是 2019 年上半年的出貨量將略高於 2018 年下半年。

The shipment profile in the first half of 2019 is expected to show accelerating momentum from foundry customers driven by 7-nanometer design starts and 5-nanometer development activity, consistent investment from logic customers and a balanced mix in memory.

預計 2019 年上半年的出貨量將顯示出在 7 納米設計啟動和 5 納米開發活動、邏輯客戶的持續投資以及存儲器均衡組合的推動下，代工客戶的加速增長勢頭。

Memory was 57% of shipments in September.

內存佔 9 月份出貨量的 57%。

DRAM accounted for 26% of total system shipments in the period.

DRAM 佔該期間系統總出貨量的 26%。

We expect memory to be strong again this quarter in approximately 64% of total shipments.

我們預計本季度內存將再次表現強勁，約佔總出貨量的 64%。

Foundry was 38% of shipments in the September quarter and is forecasted to be about 22% of the total in December.

代工廠佔 9 月份季度出貨量的 38%，預計 12 月份將佔總出貨量的 22% 左右。

Logic shipments were 5% of the total in Q3, and the current outlook is for logic to be 14% in December.

第三季度邏輯出貨量佔總出貨量的 5%，目前預計 12 月份邏輯出貨量將達到 14%。

The approximate distribution of shipments by product group was: wafer inspection was 48% of shipments; patterning was 27%, patterning includes shipments for reticle inspection; service was 22%; and non-semi and component inspection was approximately 3%.

按產品組劃分的出貨量大致分佈為： 晶圓檢測占出貨量的 48%；圖案化率為 27%，圖案化包括用於光罩檢查的出貨量；服務佔22%；非半成品及零部件檢驗約為3%。

I'll turn now to the income statement.

我現在來看看損益表。

Revenue was $1.09 billion in September and finishing at the top end of the range of guidance.

9 月份的收入為 10.9 億美元，處於指導範圍的上限。

We expect December revenue to be in the range of $1.03 billion to $1.11 billion for the quarter.

我們預計 12 月份該季度的收入將在 10.3 億美元至 11.1 億美元之間。

Gross margin was 65.2% and also at the top end of guidance for the quarter.

毛利率為 65.2%，也處於本季度指引的最高水平。

The factors driving the strong gross margin performance in September were consistent with recent margin trends, with the upside largely driven by product mix.

推動 9 月份毛利率表現強勁的因素與近期的利潤率趨勢一致，其中上漲主要是由產品組合推動的。

In December, we expect gross margin to be in the range of 63.5% to 64.5% as a slightly weaker product mix is offset by higher service and manufacturing efficiencies.

12 月份，我們預計毛利率將在 63.5% 至 64.5% 之間，因為服務和製造效率的提高抵消了產品組合略弱的影響。

Total operating expenses were $263 million in September as nonheadcount engineering program investments were lower than expected in the quarter due to timing issues related to prototype materials.

由於原型材料相關的時間問題，本季度非人員工程項目投資低於預期，9 月份的總運營費用為 2.63 億美元。

We expect to incur those expenses in the December quarter as we are modeling operating expenses to be approximately $275 million at the midpoint, with variability around this operating expense level driven principally by the timing of these types of program development costs.

我們預計這些費用將在 12 月份季度產生，因為我們將運營費用建模為中點約為 2.75 億美元，該運營費用水平的變化主要由此類項目開發成本的時間安排決定。

Looking forward for the next several quarters, we are modeling quarterly operating expenses in the $270 million to $275 million range based on planned program -- product development requirements and our current top line expectations.

展望未來幾個季度，我們根據計劃計劃、產品開發要求和我們當前的收入預期，對季度運營費用進行建模，範圍在 2.7 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間。

Operating margin in September was 41.1%.

9 月份營業利潤率為 41.1%。

The effective tax rate was 11.3% in the quarter and below the 15% long-term tax planning rate as business mix and further implementation of provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act legislation in the U.S. impacted our rate.

本季度的有效稅率為 11.3%，低於 15% 的長期稅收規劃稅率，因為業務組合以及美國《減稅和就業法案》立法條款的進一步實施影響了我們的稅率。

We will provide an update to the planning rate for the company inclusive of the Orbotech acquisition when we report results for the December quarter.

當我們報告 12 月份季度的業績時，我們將提供公司計劃率的最新信息，包括奧寶科技收購。

Finally, net income for the quarter was $384 million and we ended the quarter with 156.1 million fully diluted shares outstanding.

最後，本季度淨利潤為 3.84 億美元，本季度結束時，我們已發行完全稀釋後的股票為 1.561 億股。

For the December quarter, you should model share count at approximately 153 million.

對於 12 月所在季度，您的模型股票數量應約為 1.53 億股。

I'll turn now to highlights of the balance sheet and cash flow statement.

現在我將重點介紹資產負債表和現金流量表。

Cash and investments were $2.8 billion; cash from operations was $381 million; and free cash flow was $359 million.

現金和投資為28億美元；運營現金為 3.81 億美元；自由現金流為 3.59 億美元。

In September, we paid an aggregate of $123 million in regular quarterly dividends and dividend equivalents for fully vested restricted stock units, and repurchased $300 million of common stock pursuant to our share repurchase program.

9月份，我們為完全歸屬的限制性股票單位支付了總計1.23億美元的定期季度股息和股息等價物，並根據我們的股票回購計劃回購了3億美元的普通股。

We are currently repurchasing shares under an existing $1 billion buyback authorization, and expect to complete this program over the next few quarters, consistent with the previously articulated approach and subject to market conditions.

我們目前正在根據現有的 10 億美元回購授權回購股票，並預計在接下來的幾個季度內完成該計劃，這與之前闡明的方法一致並取決於市場條件。

We have authorization for an additional $1 billion share repurchase upon completion of the Orbotech acquisition.

奧寶科技收購完成後，我們已獲授權額外回購 10 億美元的股票。

Finally, in regards to the adoption of ASC 606, please refer to our 10-Q filing for a detailed reconciliation of differences in revenue recognition under the new and legacy standards.

最後，關於採用 ASC 606，請參閱我們的 10-Q 文件，了解新準則和舊準則下收入確認差異的詳細調節。

These differences are largely driven by timing of revenue recognition, principally due to when control of the products transfers to the customer.

這些差異主要是由收入確認的時間決定的，主要是由於產品的控制權何時轉移給客戶。

Under ASC 606, we see a reduction in the time period between shipment and revenue recognition compared to the previous standard.

根據 ASC 606，我們發現與之前的標準相比，發貨和收入確認之間的時間段有所縮短。

Based on the product and customer mix in our current shipment and revenue forecast, we expect reported revenue under the new standard to be favorable for calendar '18 and in the range of 2.5% plus or minus 50 basis points.

根據我們當前出貨量和收入預測中的產品和客戶組合，我們預計新標準下報告的收入對 18 年有利，並且在 2.5% 正負 50 個基點的範圍內。

The difference in revenue recognition between ASC 606 and the legacy standard could fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter but will narrow over a multiple-quarter time horizon.

ASC 606 和傳統標準之間的收入確認差異可能會逐季度波動，但在多個季度的時間範圍內會縮小。

In conclusion, the results demonstrated by KLA-Tencor in the September quarter reflect the company's technology leadership, the critical nature of process control and our customers' growth strategies and the value generated by our industry-leading business model.

總之，KLA-Tencor 在 9 月季度展示的業績反映了公司的技術領先地位、過程控制的關鍵性質以及我們客戶的增長戰略以及我們行業領先的業務模式所產生的價值。

As the market leader in process control, coupled with the new opportunities for market expansion represented by the pending Orbotech acquisition, we believe KLA-Tencor is uniquely positioned to deliver a long-term value to stockholders.

作為過程控制領域的市場領導者，加上即將進行的 Orbotech 收購帶來的市場擴張新機遇，我們相信 KLA-Tencor 具有獨特的優勢，能夠為股東帶來長期價值。

With that, the summarized guidance for the December quarter is: shipments in the range of $985 million to $1.065 billion; revenue between $1.03 billion and $1.11 billion; and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.88 to $2.20 per share; as well as non-GAAP diluted EPS of $2.02 to $2.34 per share.

因此，12 月份季度的總結指導為：出貨量在 9.85 億美元至 10.65 億美元之間；收入在10.3億美元至11.1億美元之間； GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 1.88 美元至 2.20 美元；以及非 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益 2.02 美元至 2.34 美元。

Before turning the call over for your questions, I'd like to announce we have scheduled an Investor Day for March 6, 2019, in New York City.

在轉接電話詢問您的問題之前，我想宣布我們已安排於 2019 年 3 月 6 日在紐約市舉行投資者日。

Please circle that date on your calendars, and keep an eye out for further details and a formal invite in the coming weeks.

請在您的日曆上圈出該日期，並在未來幾週內留意更多詳細信息和正式邀請。

We look forward to seeing you all in New York.

我們期待在紐約見到大家。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Ed to begin the Q&A.

現在，我將把電話轉回埃德以開始問答。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Bren.

謝謝你，布倫。

At this point, we'd like to open the call up to your questions.

現在，我們想開始電話討論您的問題。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

All right, Chantelle, we're ready for the first question.

好的，Chantelle，我們準備好回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Timothy Arcuri。

I had 2. First of all, I'm sure you saw the news today about the export restrictions to Jinhua, which is 1 of the 3 big memory fabs, of course, being built that you're shipping to this year.

我有 2 個。首先，我相信您今天看到了有關金華出口限制的新聞，金華是 3 個大型內存工廠之一，當然，正在建設中，您今年要運送到金華。

So my first question is, does this sort of change how you think about your business next year?

所以我的第一個問題是，這是否會改變您對明年業務的看法？

It seems to be a little more surgical than sort of likely to spread to be a big broad export restriction.

與可能蔓延為廣泛的出口限制相比，這似乎更像是外科手術。

But I'm curious, your thoughts?

但我很好奇，你的想法是什麼？

Hey, Tim, this is Rick.

嘿，蒂姆，這是里克。

And then Bren will follow.

然後布倫也會跟著。

It does not change our view for the rest of '18 or what we're looking at in '19 based on the expectations we had from that customer.

它不會改變我們對 18 年剩餘時間的看法，也不會改變我們根據客戶的期望在 19 年所看到的情況。

And to your point, it was a strategical export control.

就你而言，這是戰略性出口管制。

Now obviously other things would change if that were broadened.

現在顯然，如果擴大範圍，其他事情也會發生變化。

But as it stands today, it does not change our view.

但就目前情況而言，這並沒有改變我們的觀點。

Yes, Tim, I think as we look at this year, we feel pretty good about the tools that we've shipped there and closing out on that business.

是的，蒂姆，我認為，當我們回顧今年時，我們對我們在那裡交付的工具以及結束該業務的感覺非常好。

There's some de minimis levels of business in our ship plans over the next several quarters and into our forecast for next year for that site.

我們在未來幾個季度的船舶計劃以及對該地點明年的預測中存在一些最低限度的業務水平。

But I don't think it changes in a material way anyway of how we're really thinking about the business going forward.

但我認為無論如何，我們對未來業務的真正思考方式都不會發生實質性變化。

Okay, awesome.

好吧，太棒了。

And then, Bren, service was up a lot.

然後，布倫，服務質量提高了很多。

It was up 26% year-over-year, a big inflection.

同比增長 26%，這是一個巨大的拐點。

I guess my question is, are you doing something different in service that caused the big inflection?

我想我的問題是，您是否在服務中做了一些不同的事情導致了巨大的變化？

And can service grow that much year-over-year in December and then as you get in the first half of next year?

12 月以及明年上半年的服務量能否同比增長這麼多？

Now Tim, that's a result of our adoption of 606.

蒂姆，這是我們採用 606 的結果。

And what is happening there, and I provided some color in the last call on this topic for a -- to provide a little bit of clarity, and there'll be more in the -- in our SEC disclosures that we'll file in the next couple of days.

那裡發生了什麼，我在上次關於這個主題的電話會議中提供了一些顏色，以提供一點清晰度，並且在我們的 SEC 披露中會有更多內容，我們將在其中歸檔接下來的幾天。

But what we're doing here is that -- given the experience of our customers around our obligations in the first year warranty, is very similar to second and third year contracts, is we're having to carve out of the tool purchase and defer the revenue associated with that first year obligation.

但我們在這裡所做的是——鑑於我們的客戶在第一年保修義務方面的經驗，與第二年和第三年合同非常相似，我們必須放棄工具購買並推遲與第一年義務相關的收入。

Historically, it was a cost accrual.

從歷史上看，這是一種應計成本。

So what's happened is we've reversed the cost accrual and then for the tools under warranty, we've added the deferred revenue, which we will take over the next 12 months effectively for all tools that were under warranty effective the transition date to 606 on June 30.

因此，我們已經扭轉了應計成本，然後對於保修期內的工具，我們添加了遞延收入，我們將在接下來的12 個月內有效地接管保修期內的所有工具，從過渡日期到606生效6月30日。

So it's a unique dynamic that you saw, with a pretty big inflection.

所以你看到的是一種獨特的動態，有一個相當大的變化。

I think the dynamics around our service business are consistent.

我認為我們服務業務的動態是一致的。

Rick talked about, in terms of our views of growth rate going forward.

里克談到了我們對未來增長率的看法。

But you will see this -- this step up that will happen here and we'll see it probably play out over the next couple of quarters and then it will level back out, something consistent with what we saw historically.

但你會看到這一點——這一步驟將在這裡發生，我們可能會看到它可能在接下來的幾個季度中發揮作用，然後它會恢復平穩，這與我們歷史上看到的情況一致。

So no changes in cash flow or business operations.

因此現金流或業務運營沒有變化。

But given the experiences, it's fundamentally consistent with second and third year contracts, the literature guides us this direction in terms of how we treat those obligations.

但鑑於經驗，它與第二年和第三年的合同基本一致，文獻在如何對待這些義務方面指導我們這個方向。

Your next question comes from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的約翰·皮策 (John Pitzer)。

Bren, maybe to follow-up just on Tim's question there.

布倫，也許只是跟進蒂姆的問題。

Relative to your view that first half of '19 should be higher than second half of '18.

相對於你的觀點，19 年上半年應該高於 18 年下半年。

If could you elaborate a little bit about what's driving that view?

您能否詳細說明一下是什麼推動了這種觀點？

How much of a benefit is 606?

606有多少好處？

Is the expectation that the memory adjustments are now behind you?

內存調整的預期現在已經過去了嗎？

Or are you still seeing memory uncertainty but logic and foundry is really giving you that confidence.

或者您仍然看到內存不確定性，但邏輯和鑄造確實給了您信心。

Any color there would be helpful.

任何顏色都會有幫助。

Hey, John, it's Bren.

嘿，約翰，我是布倫。

So those were shipment statements, not revenue.

所以這些是發貨報表，而不是收入。

And I think it's an important distinction here, because as we go through this transition, one anchor of continuity is the shipment metric, which is why we're continuing to provide not only actual results and context but also guidance.

我認為這是一個重要的區別，因為當我們經歷這一轉變時，連續性的一個支柱是發貨指標，這就是為什麼我們不僅繼續提供實際結果和背景，而且還提供指導。

So to be consistent with what we've said previously and to be consistent with this metric that is unchanging, our commentary reflects that.

因此，為了與我們之前所說的保持一致，並與這個不變的指標保持一致，我們的評論反映了這一點。

So as we move into this first half -- and I think that the way the second half of this year has played out is very similar to the way we described in an update that we did back in September, where the September quarter came in a little bit stronger, December quarter sequential growth weaker and consistent with that guidance.

因此，當我們進入上半年時，我認為今年下半年的情況與我們在 9 月份所做的更新中描述的方式非常相似，其中 9 月份的季度出現了略強一點，12 月季度環比增長較弱，與該指引一致。

So as we look at the first half of next year, we see an increase in the -- in foundry and logic investment and we see memory in a relatively balanced profile as we move into the first half of the year.

因此，當我們展望明年上半年時，我們看到代工和邏輯投資有所增加，並且隨著進入今年上半年，我們看到內存處於相對平衡的狀況。

I would say that it is modest growth in terms of our expectation, then we look at the bill plan, but -- and I'm not going to comment at this point of whether given where we are, whether it's March or June.

我想說的是，就我們的預期而言，這是適度的增長，然後我們看看法案計劃，但是——鑑於我們目前的情況，無論是三月還是六月，我現在不會發表評論。

But as we look at the first half, given the timing and our conversations with customers, that's how we're seeing the first half play out, at least at this point, in terms of shipments.

但當我們回顧上半年時，考慮到時間安排以及我們與客戶的對話，這就是我們所看到的上半年的情況，至少在目前的出貨量方面。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Then maybe as my follow-up, just relative to all the consternation and concern about memory, it was interesting to hear you say that you believe memory shipments, as a percent of overall shipments, will grow sequentially in the December quarter.

然後，也許作為我的後續行動，相對於對內存的所有驚愕和擔憂，有趣的是聽到您說您相信內存出貨量佔總出貨量的百分比將在 12 月季度連續增長。

Rick, I'm wondering if you can just talk to, to what extent that, that's rising, sort of intensity of what you do in the memory market versus just timing of projects.

里克，我想知道你是否可以談談你在內存市場所做的事情的強度與項目時間的關係，上升到什麼程度。

Any help on the sort of the rising intensity would be helpful.

任何關於強度上升的幫助都會有幫助。

It's -- the intensity has stepped up but it's more consistent over what we've seen over the last year.

強度有所加強，但與我們去年所看到的情況相比更加一致。

Remember, we have other products that contribute to that too, such as the bare wafer inspection products, which are leveraged to the memory overall wafer shipment.

請記住，我們還有其他產品也對此做出了貢獻，例如裸晶圓檢測產品，這些產品可用於內存整體晶圓出貨。

So those products have been extremely strong as the wafer demand around the world continues to get stretched.

因此，隨著全球晶圓需求持續緊張，這些產品一直非常強勁。

And because of flatness requirements, we've seen an uptick in our business for flatness measurement.

由於平整度要求，我們的平整度測量業務有所增加。

So I think it's more related to those functions and that really has been playing out throughout this memory cycle where intensity has grown, partly because of the strength of the wafer houses themself.

所以我認為它與這些功能更相關，並且在整個存儲周期中確實一直在發揮作用，其中強度不斷增長，部分原因是晶圓本身的強度。

Your next question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 和 Cowen。

I have 2 of them.

我有 2 個。

First one, just to follow up on China, it looks like you guys are not worried too much about the export control impacting your customer, or at least your shipments to China, so that's kind of good to know.

首先，跟進中國的情況，看來你們並不太擔心出口管制會影響你們的客戶，或者至少是你們運往中國的貨物，所以很高興知道這一點。

Is there a way to quantify either -- I think you've said in past how indigenous China bookings are in the $600 million range for this year or as a percentage of sales, like, 25% of system sales was China.

有沒有辦法量化——我想你過去說過，今年中國本土的預訂量在 6 億美元左右，或者佔銷售額的百分比，比如，中國占系統銷售額的 25%。

Is there a way to quantify what it was for September quarter?

有沒有辦法量化九月季度的情況？

And then I have a follow-up.

然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes, Krish, let me take the first part and then I'll let Bren answer.

是的，克里什，讓我先講第一部分，然後讓布倫回答。

We're not concerned about this particular movement in the market.

我們並不擔心市場的這種特殊走勢。

So this one was a very strategic export control.

所以這是一項非常具有戰略意義的出口管制。

That's -- let's just be clear on that.

那是——讓我們澄清這一點。

Yes, Krish.

是的，克里什。

So shipments, 27% of shipments in the September quarter were China.

因此，9月份季度的出貨量中有27%來自中國。

And that, I would say that most of that is indigenous China.

我想說，其中大部分是中國本土的。

There wasn't a lot of activity with the multinationals there.

那裡的跨國公司沒有太多活動。

Probably a little bit, but not a lot.

可能有一點，但不是很多。

And consistently, as we've looked at that indigenous business into this year and into next year, the range you talked about is about how we're seeing it, in terms of shipment revenue levels, $500 million to $600 million.

一直以來，正如我們今年和明年對本土業務的研究一樣，您談到的範圍是我們如何看待它，就出貨收入水平而言，5 億至 6 億美元。

It's more foundry-centric, a little bit more foundry-centric and material-centric in '18, and it looks to be that way in '19 as well, at least from an order perspective.

在 18 年，它更加以鑄造廠為中心，更加以鑄造廠為中心，以材料為中心，並且在 19 年看起來也是如此，至少從訂單的角度來看。

But generally, we expect a continuation of momentum from those customers.

但總的來說，我們預計這些客戶的勢頭將持續下去。

And to the earlier point, I think we feel okay.

就之前的觀點而言，我認為我們感覺還不錯。

I mean, strategically, that this situation around export control tend to be confined to that one particular situation.

我的意思是，從戰略上講，這種圍繞出口管制的情況往往僅限於某一特定情況。

And as we said earlier, I don't think it has much effect on how we're running the business or planning for it into next year.

正如我們之前所說，我認為這對我們如何經營業務或計劃明年的業務沒有太大影響。

And just as a follow-up, your commentary on first half shipments and the fact that next year will be more weighted towards foundry and logic.

作為後續行動，您對上半年出貨量的評論以及明年將更加註重代工和邏輯的事實。

Is it fair to assume that -- I mean, is there any guidance like calendar '19 revenue should grow over calendar '18?

假設 - 我的意思是，是否有任何指導，例如日曆 '19 的收入應該比日曆 '18 增長？

And given it's more weighted to foundry logic, the margin profile or EPS should be better than sales?

鑑於它更注重代工邏輯，利潤率或每股收益應該比銷售額更好？

Is that a fair enough assumption?

這是一個足夠公平的假設嗎？

So I'll make a couple of comments around '19 and the first is, we do expect foundry logic to be up in '19 versus '18, and that we expect the first half to be modestly up from a shipment perspective versus '18 -- the second half of '18.

因此，我將在19 年左右發表一些評論，首先是，我們確實預計代工邏輯在19 年將比18 年有所上升，並且我們預計上半年從出貨量角度來看將比18 年略有上升——18年下半年。

So we'll have more to say as we get to the end of this quarter and report results for the December quarter on the total year view.

因此，當我們進入本季度末並在全年視圖中報告 12 月份季度的結果時，我們將有更多的話要說。

But at least that's how we see it right now.

但至少我們現在是這麼看的。

You're right.

你說得對。

Those segments are good segments for KLA in terms of process control intensity.

就過程控制強度而言，這些細分市場對於 KLA 來說是不錯的細分市場。

Our margins are very consistent across our customer base.

我們的客戶群的利潤率非常一致。

So I don't think it affects the margin profile or expectations from that business.

因此，我認為這不會影響該業務的利潤率或預期。

But certainly, that's business we're more exposed to, in terms of the process control intensity of those wafer fab dollars.

但當然，就這些晶圓廠資金的工藝控制強度而言，這是我們更容易接觸到的業務。

So we're encouraged by that.

所以我們對此感到鼓舞。

We'll see how the broader industry plays out.

我們將看看更廣泛的行業如何發展。

I'll have more to say about that as we move into December and then the first part of next year.

當我們進入 12 月以及明年上半年時，我將對此進行更多討論。

Your next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Great job on the quarterly execution, guys, and strong free cash flow.

伙計們，季度執行工作做得很好，自由現金流也很強勁。

ASML talked about shipping 30 EUV systems next year, that's up from about 18 this year.

ASML 表示明年將出貨 30 個 EUV 系統，這一數字高於今年的約 18 個。

So the EUV adoption curve is here and it looks like it's a pretty aggressive ramp.

因此，EUV 採用曲線就在這裡，看起來這是一個相當激進的斜坡。

You guys are supporting that with your mask inspection, blank inspection, CD overlay, Gen 5 print check portfolio.

你們通過掩模檢查、空白檢查、CD 覆蓋、第 5 代打印檢查組合來支持這一點。

So outside of this, I know you guys are probably one of the bigger beneficiaries as EUV ramps.

因此，除此之外，我知道你們可能是 EUV 發展的最大受益者之一。

And given that ramp adoption next year, can you guys just quantify your EUV-related opportunity next year?

考慮到明年的採用率，你們能量化明年與 EUV 相關的機會嗎？

And does this help the team sort of sustain that sort of 64%, 65% gross margin profile maybe into next year?

這是否有助於團隊在明年維持 64%、65% 的毛利率？

Hey, Harlan, it's Rick.

嘿，哈倫，我是瑞克。

I'll take the first part and then Bren will follow up.

我會先講第一部分，然後布倫會跟進。

Let me start with, we don't break out our business by EUV in particular.

首先，我們並沒有特別通過 EUV 來突破我們的業務。

But to your point, there are a lot of drivers about EUV that are frankly good for KLA-Tencor and for helping our customers solve the related problems that they have with it.

但就您的觀點而言，坦率地說，有很多有關 EUV 的驅動因素對 KLA-Tencor 有利，並有助於幫助我們的客戶解決與其相關的問題。

And as you mentioned, we're seeing good business, and as we mentioned in prepared remarks, in our mask business, due to the number of advanced starts there going through fabs.

正如您所提到的，我們看到了良好的業務，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，在我們的掩模業務中，由於通過晶圓廠的先進啟動數量。

And there's also support for print check, as you mentioned with Gen 5, and also the overlay challenges that our customers face.

正如您在 Gen 5 中提到的那樣，還支持打印檢查，以及我們的客戶面臨的覆蓋挑戰。

So it is a catalyst and a driver for us as we go forward but we don't break it out in particular.

因此，它是我們前進的催化劑和驅動力，但我們不會特別打破它。

And we're a little bit agnostic into how many tools there are per se next year.

我們對明年會有多少工具本身有點不可知。

So our demand won't really change if it's the 30 tools they talked about or 20 tools.

因此，無論是他們談到的 30 種工具還是 20 種工具，我們的需求都不會真正改變。

It's really the driving of the new capability nodes that are driving our business.

這確實是新能力節點的驅動在推動我們的業務。

And Bren, you can break out the second part.

布倫，你可以開始第二部分。

So on gross margins, Harlan, I think as we look at next year, this -- and in my comments in the script, we see things operating generally around this level.

因此，就毛利率而言，哈蘭，我認為，當我們展望明年時，以及我在劇本中的評論中，我們看到事情總體上在這個水平附近運行。

Product mix will drive us directionally here and there from quarter-to-quarter.

產品組合將推動我們每個季度都有方向。

But in and around, this 64-ish percent, plus or minus 50 basis points, looks like that's how things are trending right now.

但在這附近，這個 64% 左右，正負 50 個基點，看起來就是現在的趨勢。

Obviously, if we see expansion in the business, we should get leverage and that would work probably both directions if it turns out that revenue were to come down.

顯然，如果我們看到業務擴張，我們應該獲得槓桿作用，如果事實證明收入下降，這可能會雙向發揮作用。

But in terms of the fundamental structural dynamics around margins, that's generally the right place to be.

但就利潤率的基本結構動態而言，這通常是正確的地方。

And then on your Gen 5 pattern wafer inspection system, I think you guys had said, anticipated 17, 18 systems in the field by the end of this year.

然後，關於你們的第 5 代圖案晶圓檢測系統，我想你們已經說過，預計到今年年底會有 17、18 個系統投入使用。

Did you guys hit that target?

你們達到這個目標了嗎？

And how do you guys see the momentum of Gen 5 going into next year just given the sharp ramp of EUV, the start of 5-nanometer EUV foundry and 7-nanometer EUV logic development activities?

鑑於 EUV 的急劇增長、5 納米 EUV 代工和 7 納米 EUV 邏輯開發活動的開始，你們如何看待明年第 5 代的勢頭？

Yes.

是的。

Harlan, we did hit our target.

哈倫，我們確實達到了目標。

So we're consistent with the numbers that we provided earlier.

因此，我們與之前提供的數字是一致的。

And we would expect an increase into next year.

我們預計明年會有所增加。

I would expect revenue from Gen 5 into next year given the drivers that you mentioned that Rick elaborated on.

考慮到你提到的 Rick 詳細闡述的驅動因素，我預計第五代的收入會持續到明年。

We would expect an increase in Gen 5 revenue in '19 versus what we saw in '18.

我們預計 19 年第 5 代的收入將比 18 年有所增長。

And in terms of momentum, it's playing out very much of the same as prior generations, when we've gone to new generations of inspection products, where you have a couple of early adopters, maybe 1 big early adopter that'll drive it.

就動力而言，當我們採用新一代檢查產品時，它的表現與前幾代產品非常相似，其中有幾個早期採用者，也許是一個大型早期採用者將推動它。

Then you have customers that are maybe more evaluative of it and they'll spend a lot of time trying to figure it out.

然後你的客戶可能會對它更有評價，他們會花很多時間試圖弄清楚它。

And then the momentum gets going when the customers who have not adopted realize the advantage that the leaders are having, and then we see it kind of flow out.

當尚未採用的客戶意識到領先者所擁有的優勢時，這種勢頭就會開始發展，然後我們就會看到它逐漸消失。

So when we model those, it's not just the number of systems, it's where they're located and the use cases.

因此，當我們對這些進行建模時，不僅僅考慮系統的數量，還考慮它們的位置和用例。

So we have some that are being utilized in the early stages of manufacturing support where others are in development.

因此，我們有一些正在製造支持的早期階段使用，而其他則正在開發中。

So we like the momentum of the product.

所以我們喜歡這個產品的動力。

We're finding unique capabilities.

我們正在尋找獨特的能力。

It is true that EUV, it creates more opportunities for that product to differentiate and for customers to rely on it.

確實，EUV 為該產品創造了更多差異化機會並讓客戶信賴它。

So we're feeling very good about how we're positioned as we go forward in 2019.

因此，我們對 2019 年的前進方向感覺非常好。

Your next question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

您的下一個問題來自美銀美林的 Vivek Arya。

For the first one, you mentioned the potential for first half '19 orders to slightly grow half-over-half.

對於第一個，您提到 19 年上半年訂單有可能小幅增長一半以上。

How sensitive is that to assumption of where memory prices will trend?

這對內存價格趨勢的假設有多敏感？

So my statement was around shipments, not about orders.

所以我的聲明是關於發貨的，而不是關於訂單的。

And I think right now, the plans our customers have put in front of us, given what we're seeing is, it doesn't seem to necessarily be pricing dependent.

我認為現在，考慮到我們所看到的情況，我們的客戶擺在我們面前的計劃似乎並不一定取決於價格。

Obviously that does influence how they think about overall supply.

顯然，這確實影響了他們對整體供應的看法。

But we've seen a number of adjustments already and how those have played out through '18 and those pushes into '19.

但我們已經看到了一些調整，以及這些調整在 18 年和 19 年的表現。

So based on what we know today, our expectation is to see some balanced investment into the first half of '19 from a shipment perspective.

因此，根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們的預期是從出貨量的角度來看，19 年上半年會出現一些平衡的投資。

And as I said, modestly up versus the second half of '18.

正如我所說，與 18 年下半年相比略有上升。

All right.

好的。

And for my follow-up, just a question on inventories.

對於我的後續行動，我只想問一個關於庫存的問題。

They are higher that what we have seen historically.

它們比我們歷史上看到的要高。

Can you give us some sense of what the range should be for whether it's days or dollars or what have you, over the next several quarters?

您能否讓我們了解一下未來幾個季度的範圍應該是多少，無論是天數還是美元還是您擁有的其他東西？

You're right.

你說得對。

It's a good question, and they are higher.

這是一個好問題，而且它們更高。

We have seen some increases related to some of our long lead time products that are in the queue, namely the reticle inspection products.

我們已經看到與隊列中的一些長交貨期產品（即掩模版檢查產品）相關的一些增長。

And we talked about some of the incremental demand that we're seeing for that tool.

我們討論了我們看到的對該工具的一些增量需求。

And those are long lead times, so we have to get in that queue to buy that -- those materials early.

這些交貨時間很長，所以我們必須儘早排隊購買那些材料。

We have a number of new products that are coming out, and so we're spinning up supply chain to support that.

我們有許多新產品即將推出，因此我們正在建立供應鏈來支持這一點。

In some cases, you work -- we're working with newer suppliers.

在某些情況下，您需要工作——我們正在與新的供應商合作。

And so we're buying early to qualify parts to support a ramp.

因此，我們會儘早購買合格的零件來支持坡道。

We have a new product launch in laser scanning, in e-beam.

我們推出了激光掃描、電子束新產品。

We talked about Gen 5 and the increments for Gen 5 into next year.

我們討論了 Gen 5 以及 Gen 5 到明年的增量。

So all those things are driving the inventory levels higher.

因此，所有這些因素都導致庫存水平更高。

As we move over the -- I would expect, based on what we're seeing in terms of output expectations into next year, that we'll see that number flatten out.

隨著我們的進展——我預計，根據我們對明年產出預期的預測，我們會看到這個數字趨於平緩。

And that'll be -- as we start to put that material into tools and ship those tools out.

當我們開始將這些材料放入工具中並將這些工具運出時，就會發生這種情況。

So we are committing earlier in those cases, to make sure we've got the products in position so we can ramp them.

因此，我們在這些情況下會儘早做出承諾，以確保我們已將產品準備就緒，以便我們可以擴大它們的規模。

And that's where you see it in our financials, is in the inventory build.

這就是你在我們的財務數據、庫存建設中看到的。

Your next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question, back on deferred revenues.

我想，第一個問題，回到遞延收入。

It looks like that ticked up from June to September by $300-plus million.

從 6 月到 9 月，這一數字似乎增加了 3 億多美元。

So is that the kind of number we should be thinking about in terms of an increase for deferred in fiscal '19 versus fiscal '18?

那麼，我們應該考慮 19 財年與 18 財年遞延稅金增加的數字嗎？

And as a second part to that, should we be thinking about deferred being isolated to certain long lead time or newer products?

作為第二部分，我們是否應該考慮推遲與某些較長的交貨時間或較新的產品隔離？

And are there certain gross margins associated with those products vis-à-vis the rest of your mix?

與您的產品組合中的其他產品相比，這些產品是否具有一定的毛利率？

Yes, C.J., maybe this is something we need to reconcile with you a bit.

是的，C.J.，也許這是我們需要與您協調的事情。

Deferred revenue -- revenue backlog should come down.

遞延收入——收入積壓應該會減少。

One thing about 606 is, given the timing issues and given our implementation of 605 which was rules-based and as a result, took us longer to meet the conditions of transfer and customer acceptance.

關於 606 的一件事是，考慮到時間問題以及我們基於規則實施的 605，因此，我們花了更長的時間來滿足轉移和客戶接受的條件。

Under 606, we get there much faster.

在 606 下，我們到達那裡的速度要快得多。

So from the time we ship the tool to the time we revenue, it should only be about a month.

所以從我們發貨工具到我們盈利的時間，應該只有一個月左右的時間。

So we should see deferred revenue related to that, to come down.

因此，我們應該看到與此相關的遞延收入下降。

I talked a little bit about the warranty dynamic earlier which will play out over the next few quarters.

我之前談到了保修動態，這將在接下來的幾個季度中發揮作用。

But there isn't anything in particular that's special or unique about certain products.

但某些產品並沒有什麼特別的或獨特的地方。

It's more really based on -- if you ship a new product, and it's first of a kind, matching requirement, things like that, that we have to go all the way to an acceptance on.

它更真正地基於——如果你發布了一個新產品，並且它是第一種、匹配的要求，諸如此類的事情，我們必須一路走下去直到接受。

But under 606, you go to that acceptance level and -- in a much faster way.

但在 606 下，您會以更快的速度達到該接受水平。

And then all the follow-on tools are generally, you see revenue at shipment.

然後所有後續工具通常都是在發貨時看到收入。

So as the insulation acceptance process becomes, or is considered more perfunctory from an accounting perspective.

因此，從會計角度來看，絕緣驗收過程變得更加敷衍。

So that's what's happening.

這就是正在發生的事情。

And I would expect the deferred revenues to come down over time, given those dynamics.

考慮到這些動態，我預計遞延收入會隨著時間的推移而下降。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

And as a follow-up, as you think about just the Jinhua ruling from Department of Commerce, how are you thinking, if at all, that could impact MOFCOM and their willingness to sign off on your acquisition of Orbotech?

作為後續行動，當您考慮商務部對金華的裁決時，您認為這會如何影響商務部及其批准您收購奧寶科技的意願（如果有的話）？

We have not -- we've had dialogue and discussions and we're proceeding along the path that we had modeled where we were, in terms of regulatory in China.

我們沒有——我們已經進行了對話和討論，我們正在沿著我們在中國監管方面所建模的道路前進。

We feel very good about the exchange that we're having and we believe we're on track to close that out this calendar year, so as we had said this quarter.

我們對正在進行的交流感覺非常好，我們相信我們有望在今年完成交流，正如我們在本季度所說的那樣。

So we feel good about that.

所以我們對此感覺良好。

We have seen no indication of any change in their posture based on any of the other things that are going on, relative to trade.

我們沒有看到任何跡象表明他們的態度因與貿易相關的任何其他事情而發生變化。

Your next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Rick, you called out foundry 5-nanometer as one of the potential drivers heading into first half of '19.

Rick，您稱代工 5 納米是進入 19 年上半年的潛在驅動因素之一。

I realize it's really early, but how do you think about that node in terms of contribution to your business over the next couple of years?

我意識到現在還很早，但是您如何看待該節點在未來幾年對您業務的貢獻？

Well, I mean, I think it'll be a continuation of the expansion we've seen in terms of the newer products that we have, are going to be targeted at 5-nanometer.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為這將是我們在新產品方面所看到的擴展的延續，這些新產品將針對 5 納米。

We see the process control intensity.

我們看到過程控制的強度。

Challenges are very significant for our customers because that's the node in which EUV is going to be adopted in a greater percentage.

對於我們的客戶來說，挑戰非常重大，因為這是 EUV 將得到更大比例採用的節點。

Some people are looking at some level of EUV at 7, but 5 is really where it increases in adoption, that will drive a lot of use.

有些人將 EUV 的級別定為 7，但實際上 5 才是它的採用率增加的地方，這將推動大量使用。

So we're well positioned for that.

所以我們已經做好了充分的準備。

We're working closely with the customers that are pushing their technology.

我們正在與推動其技術的客戶密切合作。

And this is part of the Gen 5 discussion that we've had in the past where Gen 5 was really more of a development tool.

這是我們過去討論過的 Gen 5 的一部分，其中 Gen 5 實際上更多的是一種開發工具。

If you go back a year ago and now it's becoming more of a pilot tool in early production and the 5-nanometer becomes more biased toward production.

如果你回到一年前，現在它更多地成為早期生產中的試點工具，並且 5 納米變得更加偏向於生產。

So we feel great about where we are with that tool, but also the supporting metrology tools as well.

因此，我們對該工具以及支持計量工具的使用狀況感到非常滿意。

In the first part of next year, we'll see the 7-nanometer tapeouts that are currently -- the customers are currently talking about.

明年上半年，我們將看到客戶目前正在談論的 7 納米流片。

We'll see that drive up some activity.

我們會看到這會推動一些活動。

We're seeing it in the mask shop.

我們在面膜店裡看到過。

We'll see it in the wafer fab as well.

我們也會在晶圓廠看到它。

And we'll start to see more of the N5 investments in our early development as we move towards the second half of the year.

隨著下半年的到來，我們將開始在早期開發中看到更多的 N5 投資。

As Rick said, it's a challenging node.

正如里克所說，這是一個具有挑戰性的節點。

It's a bigger node for EUV.

這是 EUV 的一個更大的節點。

And we've got a number of products that are targeted for it.

我們有許多針對此目標的產品。

And I think it'll be interesting and an intriguing business for us as we move into the second half of the year.

我認為，當我們進入今年下半年時，這對我們來說將是一項有趣且有趣的業務。

Great, and then as a quick follow-up.

太好了，然後作為快速跟進。

On bare wafer inspection, I think this is another segment -- or product group rather, that you guys have called out over the past couple, if not several, quarters.

關於裸晶圓檢查，我認為這是你們在過去幾個季度（如果不是幾個季度）中呼籲的另一個細分市場或產品組。

I realize it's a high-margin business for you guys.

我意識到這對你們來說是一項高利潤的業務。

I think some of your customers -- or all your customers remain pretty constructive into 2018 -- I'm sorry, 2019, in terms of their outlook, in terms of pricing.

我認為你們的一些客戶——或者你們所有的客戶在 2018 年仍然非常有建設性——對不起，2019 年，就他們的前景和定價而言。

But some of them have toned it down a little bit just given the weakness in memory and certain parts of logic.

但鑑於記憶力和某些邏輯部分的弱點，他們中的一些人已經將其淡化了一點。

How sustainable do you think this business is for you?

您認為這項業務對您來說可持續發展的程度如何？

I ask because in the past, I think it's been pretty volatile for you guys.

我問這個問題是因為在過去，我認為這對你們來說非常不穩定。

We're certainly in a period where there's both -- there's kind of 3 things working at once in favor of this business, which is, there's capacity expansion, there's technological challenges associated with defectivity and there's increased flatness requirement.

我們確實處於一個兩者兼具的時期——有三件事同時對這項業務有利，即產能擴張、與缺陷相關的技術挑戰以及平整度要求的提高。

So it is true that, that has stepped up the level of business.

確實，這提高了業務水平。

So what we're modeling as we go forward is, we don't see that level of growth going forward again where we've essentially, over the last few years, that business has grown quite a bit.

因此，我們在前進過程中所建模的是，我們不會再看到這種增長水平，而在過去幾年中，我們的業務基本上已經增長了相當多。

But the sustainability at the current levels is what we're modeling terms of when we talk with our customers as they continue to bring on capability.

但當前水平的可持續性是我們在與客戶交談時建模的術語，因為他們繼續提供能力。

And remember, the percent of their wafers that are going to leading edge right now is relatively small.

請記住，目前處於領先地位的晶圓所佔的百分比相對較小。

And so over time, they have to convert more of that to leading edge, and so we'll be feathering in our products in support of that.

因此，隨著時間的推移，他們必須將更多的技術轉化為領先優勢，因此我們將在我們的產品中進行羽化以支持這一點。

So we feel pretty good about the current level of business that we have in the bare wafer and its sustainability.

因此，我們對目前裸晶圓業務的水平及其可持續性感到非常滿意。

We don't see another leg up though, as we saw in the last few years as we went to this node.

不過，正如我們在過去幾年到達這個節點時看到的那樣，我們沒有看到另一條腿。

Your next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

Maybe just as a follow-up to your comments on the memory market, at least in the near term.

也許只是作為您對內存市場評論的後續行動，至少在短期內如此。

When you're discussing about a balanced memory market, does that include the combination of DRAM and NAND?

當您討論平衡的內存市場時，是否包括 DRAM 和 NAND 的組合？

Or are you seeing one or the other potentially driving the first half of '19 outlook that you detailed?

或者您認為其中一個或另一個可能會推動您詳細介紹的 19 年上半年的前景？

So that's a statement on our expectations for shipments into the first half, that it's a relatively balanced shipment profile across the 2 segments.

這是我們對上半年出貨量預期的聲明，這兩個細分市場的出貨量相對平衡。

So I don't really have much more to say than that.

所以我真的沒什麼可說的了。

I think we feel pretty good.

我覺得我們感覺很好。

You have to remember one thing about KLA is that, we tend to be more about enabling technology and less about just raw capacity expansion.

你必須記住關於 KLA 的一件事是，我們更傾向於支持技術，而不是僅僅關注原始產能擴張。

And so as long as our customers are continuing to push their road maps, and they are DRAM and they are pursuing incremental layers in NAND, that we see and expect to see a continued level of business from those customers, irrespective of the capacity adjustments that could happen.

因此，只要我們的客戶繼續推動他們的路線圖，他們是 DRAM 並且他們正在追求 NAND 的增量層，我們看到並期望看到這些客戶的業務水平持續增長，無論產能調整如何可能會發生。

Yes.

是的。

And we don't disagree with the industry perspective that DRAM investment in '19 will be coming down.

我們並不反對業界認為 19 年 DRAM 投資將會下降的觀點。

We do see foundry up.

我們確實看到鑄造廠崛起。

And so -- but as Bren said, it's -- that's not as much of a driver for us as the other factors you mentioned.

因此，正如布倫所說，這對我們來說並不像你提到的其他因素那樣重要。

Great, that's helpful.

太好了，很有幫助。

And maybe, Rick, as a follow-up, in terms of China and the indigenous market, particularly on the trailing edge foundry logic segment.

也許，Rick，作為後續行動，在中國和本土市場方面，特別是在後緣代工邏輯領域。

That's been a surprising strength for the entire industry in 2018.

這對於 2018 年整個行業來說是一個令人驚訝的優勢。

From a process control intensity standpoint, do you believe the local semiconductor manufacturers on the foundry logic side are seeing the value, and this will then continue, as they continue to migrate down nodes in the future?

從工藝控制強度的角度來看，您是否認為代工邏輯方面的本地半導體製造商已經看到了價值，並且隨著他們未來繼續向下遷移節點，這種情況將會持續下去？

Or -- but I guess I'm little surprised there's been so much strength coming out of there, given that they can reuse tool or buy used tools in the marketplace.

或者 - 但我想我對那裡出現的如此大的力量並不感到驚訝，因為他們可以重複使用工具或在市場上購買二手工具。

They have -- there's a number of process challenges I think that they're facing, even though that they have, as you say, that they're, they have the options that some of the bigger players might have tried to leverage.

他們有——我認為他們面臨著許多流程挑戰，儘管他們有，正如你所說，他們有一些更大的參與者可能試圖利用的選擇。

But it's harder when you're relatively new and your scale isn't as big to be able to do the reuse and some of the things that you've seen in the other places.

但是，當您相對較新並且您的規模還沒有那麼大，無法進行重用以及您在其他地方看到的一些事情時，這就更困難了。

So they're also tackling a number of technology challenges at once.

因此，他們還同時應對許多技術挑戰。

We have excellent relationships there, and we feel very good about the sustainability of that business.

我們在那裡擁有良好的關係，我們對該業務的可持續性感到非常滿意。

On a relative basis too, when you look at those fabs in terms of scale, they're significantly smaller, as I said, than what you'd see elsewhere.

相對而言，當你從規模上看這些工廠時，正如我所說，它們比你在其他地方看到的要小得多。

So I think it continues to be strong.

所以我認為它仍然強勁。

I do think there's even potential for more in the way of things like mask shops where you'll continue to see strength.

我確實認為，在口罩店等方面甚至還有更多潛力，你將繼續看到力量。

Ultimately they'd like to have wafer manufacturing, but I think that's several years away before that will be a significant piece of that.

最終他們希望進行晶圓製造，但我認為這還需要幾年的時間，這將是其中的重要組成部分。

Well, they also are challenged to get used equipment.

嗯，他們也面臨著獲得二手設備的挑戰。

It's a pretty tight market out there.

這是一個相當緊張的市場。

And we will sell at times, used KLA equipment.

我們有時會出售二手 KLA 設備。

We don't really have any of that in inventory.

我們的庫存中實際上沒有任何這些。

So what we've done is we've restarted older product lines to support some of that business.

因此，我們所做的就是重新啟動舊的產品線來支持部分業務。

Or you're seeing current revs of products that are de-configured to meet these trailing edge needs that certainly have the ability to be upgraded over time from those customers.

或者，您會看到當前版本的產品已被取消配置，以滿足這些後緣需求，這些需求當然能夠隨著時間的推移從這些客戶那裡進行升級。

So they're investing that way.

所以他們就是這樣投資的。

And to Rick's point, I mean, there are markets to ship into, and eventually they'll be able to get to a place where they can do that.

就里克的觀點而言，我的意思是，有一些市場可以進入，最終他們將能夠到達一個可以做到這一點的地方。

Your next question comes from Atif Malik with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Atif Malik。

Rick, I want to get your thoughts on the use of EUV for DRAM, when you think it gets implemented on DRAM?

Rick，我想了解您對在 DRAM 上使用 EUV 的想法，您認為它何時會在 DRAM 上實現？

And how you guys could benefit from that.

以及你們如何從中受益。

Well, I think that the -- you're going to start seeing some adoption of it, it very much depends on the economics I think, and that's going to be the big challenge.

嗯，我認為——你將開始看到它得到一些採用，我認為這很大程度上取決於經濟狀況，這將是一個巨大的挑戰。

But I think we are going to see some in 2019 beyond what we've seen in pilot in 2018.

但我認為 2019 年我們會看到一些超出 2018 年試點的內容。

It's really a similar story though to what we see in logic, where EUV presents opportunities both in terms of the mask shop.

這實際上是一個與我們在邏輯上看到的類似的故事，EUV 在掩模車間方面都提供了機會。

Obviously with DRAM, you don't have the number of starts but you do have very significant concerns about lifetime and contamination and EUV cleanliness overall.

顯然，對於 DRAM，您沒有啟動次數，但您確實對整體壽命、污染和 EUV 清潔度有非常大的擔憂。

But I think it's much more about the scalability and scaling of the design rule in DRAM, and also some of the challenges they're trying to get around in terms of overlay control.

但我認為這更多的是關於 DRAM 設計規則的可擴展性和擴展性，以及他們在覆蓋控制方面試圖解決的一些挑戰。

So it's a driver, but not as much as it is, of course, in logic.

所以它是一個驅動因素，但當然，在邏輯上還沒有那麼重要。

Okay.

好的。

And then on China, in a nuclear winter scenario where, let's say, there are broad restrictions put on equipment suppliers to ship equipment to China.

然後是中國，在核冬天的情況下，比如說，設備供應商向中國運送設備受到廣泛的限制。

Do you think this spending will just get absorbed elsewhere in Korea or Taiwan or in other -- the fab infrastructure there to take the demand?

您認為這筆支出會被韓國、台灣或其他地方的晶圓廠基礎設施吸收來滿足需求嗎？

Boy, that's a -- it's hard to speculate on that.

天哪，這很難推測。

But I would think there's clearly a case that China's investing for strategic reasons.

但我認為，中國的投資顯然是出於戰略原因。

And therefore, it's more additive, in some ways, than if they were to -- not be allowed to invest.

因此，在某些方面，這比不允許他們投資更具附加性。

So I think you'd probably see some impact.

所以我想你可能會看到一些影響。

We rate that probability as low.

我們認為這種可能性很低。

And maybe also because of the action that was taken was very targeted and -- for a specific reason.

也許還因為所採取的行動非常有針對性，並且出於特定原因。

So we are not modeling that as one of the outcomes.

因此，我們不會將其建模為結果之一。

But yes, I think that, that would have an overall impact on WFE for sure.

但是，是的，我認為這肯定會對 WFE 產生總體影響。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Just to follow up on the service revenue.

只是為了跟進服務收入。

Wanted to make sure that, you talked about, it takes a few quarters for recognition to formalize.

您談到，想要確保正式認可需要幾個季度的時間。

So should we think about by the end of this fiscal year, you will get back to the longer-term trend of up, let's say, 9% to 10% year-over-year?

那麼我們是否應該考慮一下，到本財年結束時，您是否會恢復到同比增長 9% 至 10% 的長期趨勢？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

No, that's a good way to think about it.

不，這是一個很好的思考方式。

Because you're going to have to work through the deferred revenue associated with all the tools that were under warranty at the time of conversion.

因為您將必須處理與轉換時處於保修期內的所有工具相關的遞延收入。

So there are some tools that shipped right at the end of that quarter, so it'll take a year for that to completely roll off, although it's likely a little bit heavier in the front end than it is in the back half of the fiscal year.

因此，有一些工具在該季度末就發貨了，因此需要一年的時間才能完全推出，儘管前端可能比本財年後半段重一些。年。

That's a good way to think about it.

這是一個很好的思考方式。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

My second question is that, in the past you have talked about trailing edge is now close to 40% of your revenues.

我的第二個問題是，你過去談到的後沿現在接近你收入的40%。

Some foundries have talked about overcapacity of 28-nanometer wafers and utilization may come down.

一些代工廠表示28納米晶圓產能過剩，利用率可能會下降。

Do you expect that to be a short-term phenomenon?

您認為這只是短期現象嗎？

And do you expect next year you'll see trailing edge going back to 40% of your revenues?

您預計明年您的收入佔比會回升至 40% 嗎？

It looks pretty stable to us as we look at next year around -- and it's more trailing edge, that's just more of a foundry statement than overall.

當我們展望明年時，它看起來相當穩定——而且它更落後，這只是代工廠的聲明而不是整體。

But given that the diversity of end markets around semis, if you look at those customers that are investing, the activity we're seeing, it see it being fairly stable.

但考慮到半成品終端市場的多樣性，如果你看看那些正在投資的客戶，以及我們所看到的活動，就會發現它相當穩定。

We'll have to watch those markets and see, but at least at this point, that's how it looks to us.

我們必須觀察這些市場並觀察，但至少在這一點上，這就是我們的看法。

But part of what drives that is, we have created options for those customers to upgrade their capability, and so part of the business that we have for them, even in a market where, maybe they're not investing in new capacity, is to upgrade their existing so they can get more efficient.

但推動這一趨勢的部分原因是，我們為這些客戶創造了升級其能力的選擇，因此我們為他們提供的部分業務，即使在他們可能沒有投資新產能的市場中，也是升級現有設備，提高效率。

And we're seeing big demand for that.

我們看到對此有很大的需求。

And those initiatives started a couple of years ago, to be able to extend the value of the tools that are already in the installed base, where we obviously have a home-court advantage.

這些舉措始於幾年前，旨在擴展已安裝基礎中已有工具的價值，而我們顯然擁有主場優勢。

There are no further questions at this time.

目前沒有其他問題。

I will now turn the call back over to Ed Lockwood.

我現在將把電話轉回埃德·洛克伍德。

Thank you, Chantelle.

謝謝你，尚特爾。

No further commentary from us today.

我們今天沒有進一步的評論。

Thank you all for joining.

感謝大家的加入。

This concludes our conference call.

我們的電話會議到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。