科磊 (KLAC) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon.

下午好。

My name is Christine, and I'll be your conference operator today.

我叫克里斯汀，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA Corporation Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2019 Earnings Conference Call.

此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 KLA Corporation 2019 財年第二季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ed Lockwood with KLA Corporation Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

Ed Lockwood 與 KLA Corporation 投資者關係部，您可以開始會議了。

Thank you, Christine.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議。

Joining me on our call today are Rick Wallace, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加我們電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Rick Wallace；以及我們的首席財務官布倫·希金斯 (Bren Higgins)。

We're here today to discuss quarterly results for the period ended December 31, 2018.

我們今天在這裡討論截至 2018 年 12 月 31 日的季度業績。

We released these results this afternoon at 1:15 Pacific Time.

我們於太平洋時間今天下午 1 點 15 分發布了這些結果。

If you haven't seen the release, you can find it on our website.

如果您還沒有看到該版本，可以在我們的網站上找到它。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務業績的討論將在非公認會計準則財務基礎上進行。

A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release and in the investor presentation posted on the KLA Investor Relations website.

GAAP 與非 GAAP 業績的詳細調節可在今天的收益新聞稿以及 KLA 投資者關係網站上發布的投資者演示文稿中找到。

There, you'll also find a calendar of future investor events, presentations and conferences as well as links to KLA's SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2018.

在那裡，您還可以找到未來投資者活動、演示和會議的日曆以及 KLA 向 SEC 提交的文件的鏈接，包括我們截至 2018 年 6 月 30 日的年度 10-K 表格年度報告。

In those filings, you will also find descriptions of risk factors that could impact our future results.

在這些文件中，您還會找到可能影響我們未來業績的風險因素的描述。

As you know, our future results are subject to risks.

如您所知，我們未來的業績存在風險。

Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks and KLA cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true.

任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上做出的陳述，都面臨這些風險，KLA 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述一定會實現。

Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

我們的實際結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中預測的結果存在很大差異。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.

這樣，我就把電話轉給里克。

KLA reported excellent results for the December quarter, with shipments, revenue and earnings per share each closing above the range of guidance in the period.

KLA 報告了 12 月份季度的出色業績，出貨量、收入和每股收益均高於該期間的指導範圍。

The December quarter caps the third consecutive year of mid-teens revenue growth for KLA.

12 月份這個季度，KLA 的收入連續第三年實現中位數增長。

The consistent, strong financial performance we are delivering is a result of our continued customer collaboration, product innovation and outstanding operational excellence.

我們所提供的一致、強勁的財務業績是我們持續的客戶合作、產品創新和卓越運營的結果。

Our performance also highlights the strength and resilience of the KLA business model and the company's ability to consistently deliver long-term growth while delivering top-tier financial performance and strong cash returns to stockholders.

我們的業績還突顯了 KLA 業務模式的實力和彈性，以及公司持續實現長期增長、同時為股東提供頂級財務業績和強勁現金回報的能力。

Consistent with this vision and with an eye to the future, on January 10, we unveiled the new name and logo for KLA Corporation.

與這一願景相一致並著眼於未來，1 月 10 日，我們公佈了 KLA Corporation 的新名稱和徽標。

Our new, more contemporary brand honors the legacy of KLA's past and reflects our vision of the future for employees and for partners.

我們更加現代的新品牌尊重 KLA 過去的傳統，並反映了我們對員工和合作夥伴的未來願景。

Now for some perspective on today's market dynamics.

現在談談對當今市場動態的一些看法。

In terms of our view of the current WFE demand climate, we are aligned with the consensus expectations for a down year for the equipment investment in 2019, largely driven by meaningful declines in memory spend in both segments, which is expected to be partially offset by growth in advanced foundry and logic.

就我們對當前 WFE 需求環境的看法而言，我們與 2019 年設備投資下降的共識預期一致，這主要是由於這兩個領域的內存支出大幅下降，預計這將被部分抵消先進鑄造和邏輯的增長。

However, notwithstanding the near term market headwinds currently impacting WFE investment, the long term growth dynamics for the industry remains strong, fueled by larger and more diversified semiconductor device end demand and disciplined market-driven capacity planning.

然而，儘管近期市場逆風目前影響著 WFE 投資，但在更大、更多樣化的半導體器件終端需求和嚴格的市場驅動產能規劃的推動下，該行業的長期增長動力仍然強勁。

The reduction in memory capacity investment we are seeing today is a result of weaker mobile demand and a pullback in data center.

我們今天看到的內存容量投資的減少是移動需求疲軟和數據中心縮減的結果。

However, we expect supply and demand to rebalance over time given a more rational and disciplined capacity investment posture by customers.

然而，鑑於客戶的產能投資態度更加理性和嚴格，我們預計隨著時間的推移，供需將重新平衡。

In contrast to memory, leading edge foundry and logic investments have begun to ramp and momentum is expected to continue in 2019, reasonably balanced through the year with customers investing to support transitions to advanced nodes and the insertion of EUV lithography.

與存儲器相比，領先的代工和邏輯投資已開始增加，預計 2019 年將繼續保持這種勢頭，全年將與客戶投資支持向先進節點的過渡和 EUV 光刻的插入實現合理平衡。

For KLA, we have already seen our mix of business shifting to logic and foundry and investment from these customers is expected to remain strong in 2019.

對於 KLA 來說，我們已經看到我們的業務組合轉向邏輯和代工，這些客戶的投資預計在 2019 年將保持強勁。

Now for some highlights of our market leadership and product differentiation strategies.

現在我們的市場領導地位和產品差異化戰略的一些亮點。

KLA continues to experience significant growth in demand for our wafer and mask inspection products driven by tighter wafer cleanliness and geometry specifications in the bare wafer market and the introduction of both EUV and non-EUV projects at the 7-nanometer node in the mask shops.

由於裸晶圓市場中更嚴格的晶圓清潔度和幾何規格以及掩模車間 7 納米節點 EUV 和非 EUV 項目的推出，KLA 對晶圓和掩模檢測產品的需求持續顯著增長。

We're also seeing strong customer acceptance of recently released new products, including the revolutionary new Voyager laser scanning pattern inspection and the SP7 bare wafer inspection platforms.

我們還看到客戶對最近發布的新產品的強烈接受，包括革命性的新型 Voyager 激光掃描圖案檢測和 SP7 裸晶圓檢測平台。

Both products are being adopted in volume at multiple customer sites, demonstrating that our long-term R&D investments and product strategies are meeting market requirements and enabling customers to progress their advanced technology road maps.

這兩種產品均已在多個客戶現場大量採用，這表明我們的長期研發投資和產品戰略正在滿足市場需求，並使客戶能夠推進其先進技術路線圖。

KLA's service business also continues to deliver excellent revenue growth performance while generating strong cash flow.

KLA 的服務業務也繼續提供出色的收入增長業績，同時產生強勁的現金流。

Service is expected to exceed $1 billion in calendar '19 and deliver long term annual revenue growth rates in the 9% to 11% range.

預計 2019 年服務收入將超過 10 億美元，並實現長期年收入增長率在 9% 至 11% 的範圍內。

Growth in services is tied to a number of factors, including expansion of the installed base and more end demand for legacy applications, driving higher utilization of capacity and extension of useful life.

服務的增長與許多因素密切相關，包括安裝基礎的擴大和對遺留應用程序的更多終端需求，從而推動容量利用率的提高和使用壽命的延長。

These are just a couple of examples of how our strategies for technology and market leadership are delivering results.

這些只是我們的技術和市場領先戰略如何取得成果的幾個例子。

As we move ahead in the new year, we remain focused on advancing our long-term strategies, positioning the company for success and continuing to deliver strong financial performance and long-term stockholder value.

在新的一年裡，我們將繼續專注於推進我們的長期戰略，為公司的成功做好準備，並繼續提供強勁的財務業績和長期股東價值。

To conclude before handing the call over to Bren, I'd like to give a quick update on the status of the Orbotech transaction.

最後，在將電話轉交給布倫之前，我想快速介紹一下奧寶科技交易的最新情況。

KLA and Orbotech are continuing to work cooperatively on approval of our transaction with the Chinese antitrust authority, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and we're finalizing discussions with them.

KLA 和奧寶科技正在繼續與中國反壟斷機構、國家市場監督管理總局合作批准我們的交易，我們正在與他們完成討論。

We expect to receive China regulatory approval this quarter.

我們預計本季度將獲得中國監管部門的批准。

Given the timeliness and sensitivity of these discussions, we will forgo any further discussions and will not answer additional questions regarding the transaction until we have new developments to discuss.

考慮到這些討論的及時性和敏感性，我們將放棄任何進一步的討論，並且在有新的進展可供討論之前不會回答有關交易的其他問題。

This concludes my comments for today.

我今天的評論到此結束。

Now I'll turn the call over to Bren.

現在我將把電話轉給布倫。

Bren?

布倫？

Thanks, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝瑞克，大家下午好。

As Rick highlighted in his opening remarks, the December quarter delivered excellent financial results for the company.

正如 Rick 在開場白中強調的那樣，12 月季度為公司帶來了出色的財務業績。

Shipments, revenue, GAAP, non-GAAP diluted earnings per share each came in above the range of guidance in the quarter.

出貨量、收入、公認會計原則、非公認會計原則攤薄每股收益均高於本季度的指導範圍。

Revenue was $1.12 billion, GAAP diluted earnings per share was $2.42 and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $2.44 in the December quarter.

12 月份季度的收入為 11.2 億美元，GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 2.42 美元，非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 2.44 美元。

In today's press release, you'll find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share.

在今天的新聞稿中，您將找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益的調節表。

As a reminder, unless I explicitly refer to GAAP results, my commentary will be solely focused on the non-GAAP results, which exclude the adjustments covered in the press release.

提醒一下，除非我明確提及 GAAP 業績，否則我的評論將僅關注非 GAAP 業績，其中不包括新聞稿中涵蓋的調整。

Now for highlights on the December demand environment in terms of shipments.

現在重點介紹 12 月份出貨量的需求環境。

Total shipments were a record $1.09 billion, above the range of guidance for the quarter.

總出貨量達到創紀錄的 10.9 億美元，高於本季度的指導範圍。

The upside to our shipping guidance was a result of pull-ins of approximately $65 million of deliveries originally scheduled for the March quarter.

我們的運輸指引的上行是由於原定於 3 月份季度交付的約 6500 萬美元的交貨量增加的結果。

As a result of these pull-ins, the shipment results for the second half of calendar '18 were essentially flat with the first half.

由於這些拉動，18 日曆年下半年的發貨結果基本上與上半年持平。

Our outlook for March quarter shipments is in the range of $860 million to $940 million, with the quarterly sequential decline in shipments a function of these pull-ins into the December quarter as well as the shift in delivery dates from 2 memory customers that occurred very late in December.

我們對 3 月份季度出貨量的預期在 8.6 億美元至 9.4 億美元之間，季度出貨量連續下降是由於 12 月季度的拉動以及 2 個內存客戶的交付日期發生的變化而導致的。十二月下旬。

Though visibility in the industry today is challenging and customer plans remain fluid, particularly in memory, our current view is for the second half 2019 shipments to be greater than the first half, a result of the factors I just discussed and our latest customer delivery expectations for 2019.

儘管當今行業的能見度充滿挑戰，而且客戶計劃仍然不穩定，特別是在內存領域，但我們目前的觀點是2019 年下半年的出貨量將高於上半年，這是我剛才討論的因素以及我們最新的客戶交付預期的結果2019 年。

Memory was 61% of semiconductor shipments in December.

12 月份內存佔半導體出貨量的 61%。

DRAM accounted for 38% of system shipments.

DRAM佔系統出貨量的38%。

We expect memory to be approximately 40% of shipments in the March quarter.

我們預計內存將佔第三季度出貨量的 40% 左右。

Foundry was 24% of shipments in the December quarter and is forecasted to be about 50% of the total in March.

代工廠佔 12 月份季度出貨量的 24%，預計 3 月份將佔總出貨量的 50% 左右。

Logic shipments were 15% and the current outlook is for logic to be approximately 10% of shipments in March.

邏輯出貨量為 15%，目前預計邏輯出貨量將佔 3 月份出貨量的 10% 左右。

The approximate distribution of shipments by product group was: wafer inspection was 48% of shipments; patterning was 28%, patterning includes shipments for reticle inspection; service was 21%; and non-semi and component inspection was approximately 3%.

按產品組劃分的出貨量大致分佈為： 晶圓檢測占出貨量的 48%；圖案化率為28%，圖案化包括用於光罩檢查的出貨量；服務佔21%；非半成品及零部件檢驗約為3%。

I'll turn now to the income statement.

我現在來看看損益表。

Revenue was a record $1.12 billion in December and $50 million above the midpoint of guidance.

12 月份的收入達到創紀錄的 11.2 億美元，比指導中值高出 5,000 萬美元。

We expect March revenue to be in the range of $880 million to $960 million.

我們預計 3 月份的收入將在 8.8 億美元至 9.6 億美元之間。

March revenue levels are lower than we expected back in October.

3 月份的收入水平低於我們 10 月份的預期。

As highlighted in our recent earnings reports, the adoption of ASC 606 for revenue recognition means that quarterly revenue levels are now more closely tied to quarterly shipments.

正如我們最近的收益報告中所強調的，採用 ASC 606 進行收入確認意味著季度收入水平現在與季度出貨量更加緊密地聯繫在一起。

Due to this dynamic, the shipment pull-ins we experienced in December have led to meaningful revenue upside in the quarter but at the expense of the March quarter.

由於這種動態，我們在 12 月份經歷的出貨量拉動導致該季度收入大幅增長，但代價是 3 月份季度的收入增長。

This, coupled with the memory shipment delays I mentioned earlier, are lowering our revenue expectations for March.

再加上我之前提到的內存發貨延遲，降低了我們對 3 月份的收入預期。

Due to our record shipment backlog and expectations for system shipment scheduling for the remainder of the year, we anticipate that the March quarter will be the low point and anticipate sequential revenue growth to resume in the June quarter and continue for the remainder of calendar year '19.

由於我們創紀錄的出貨積壓以及對今年剩餘時間系統出貨安排的預期，我們預計3 月份季度將是最低點，並預計收入連續增長將在6 月份季度恢復，並在日曆年剩餘時間內持續增長。 19.

Gross margin was 63.6% in December, 40 basis points lower than the midpoint of guidance as the modest improvement in product mix was offset by slightly higher manufacturing and service costs.

12 月份毛利率為 63.6%，比指導中值低 40 個基點，因為產品結構的適度改善被製造和服務成本的小幅上漲所抵消。

In March, we expect gross margin to be in the range of 61% to 62%, principally due to volume as manufacturing costs are spread across a lower revenue base.

3 月份，我們預計毛利率將在 61% 至 62% 之間，主要是由於製造成本分散在較低的收入基礎上而導致銷量增加。

Product mix expectations are roughly consistent with the December quarter.

產品組合預期與 12 月份季度大致一致。

Total operating expenses were $275 million in December and at the midpoint of our guidance.

12 月份的總運營支出為 2.75 億美元，處於我們指導值的中點。

Operating margin was 39.1%.

營業利潤率為 39.1%。

For the March quarter, we expect operating expenses to be approximately $278 million at the midpoint, with variability around this level driven principally by the timing of program development costs.

對於 3 月份季度，我們預計運營費用中點約為 2.78 億美元，這一水平的變化主要由項目開發成本的時間安排決定。

Looking forward, our customers' technology road maps represent an opportunity for served market expansion for process control and market share opportunities for KLA.

展望未來，我們客戶的技術路線圖為 KLA 提供了過程控制服務市場擴展和市場份額機會。

Our operating expense investment levels for 2019 are geared to meet the needs of this expanding market for our products and technology.

我們 2019 年的運營費用投資水平旨在滿足不斷擴大的市場對我們產品和技術的需求。

We are making significant investments to support EUV adoption, increasing metrology and inspection challenges in memory and data analytics and design-based capabilities to ensure customers are able to get increasing value from our products.

我們正在進行大量投資來支持 EUV 的採用，增加內存和數據分析以及基於設計的功能方面的計量和檢測挑戰，以確保客戶能夠從我們的產品中獲得越來越多的價值。

We are optimistic about these growth prospects and plan to invest accordingly.

我們對這些增長前景感到樂觀，併計劃進行相應的投資。

The effective tax rate was 11.4%.

有效稅率為11.4%。

Given the new corporate tax structure in the U.S. and our expectations for the geographic distribution of profit, we are adjusting our long-term planning rate down 1% to 14%.

鑑於美國新的企業稅收結構以及我們對利潤地理分佈的預期，我們將長期規劃稅率下調1%至14%。

At this point, we expect this rate to remain at 14%, inclusive of Orbotech after close of the transaction.

目前，我們預計這一比率將保持在 14%，包括交易結束後的奧寶科技。

Finally, net income for the quarter was $372 million, and we had 152.6 million fully diluted weighted shares outstanding.

最後，本季度淨利潤為 3.72 億美元，我們擁有 1.526 億股完全稀釋加權流通股。

Now for some highlights of the balance sheet and cash flow statement.

現在我們來看看資產負債表和現金流量表的一些要點。

Cash and investments were $2.7 billion, cash from operations was $282 million and free cash flow was $256 million.

現金和投資為 27 億美元，運營現金為 2.82 億美元，自由現金流為 2.56 億美元。

Capital expenditures for 2018 were higher than our historical run rate of around $50 million to $60 million per year due to the expansion of production facilities to support future growth as well as investment to support our new, R&D-focused facility in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

2018 年的資本支出高於我們每年約5000 萬至6000 萬美元的歷史運行率，這是由於生產設施的擴建以支持未來的增長，以及投資以支持我們位於密歇根州安娜堡的新的、以研發為重點的設施。

I would expect CapEx levels to remain elevated in calendar '19 as we continue to make investments in these areas.

我預計隨著我們繼續在這些領域進行投資，19 年的資本支出水平將保持在較高水平。

For calendar year '18, free cash flow as a percentage of revenue was 30%.

18 日曆年，自由現金流佔收入的百分比為 30%。

In the December quarter, we paid an aggregate of $115 million in regular and quarterly dividends and dividend equivalents upon the vesting of restricted stock units and repurchased $250 million of common stock pursuant to our share repurchase program.

在 12 月季度，我們在限制性股票單位歸屬時支付了總計 1.15 億美元的定期股息和季度股息以及股息等價物，並根據我們的股票回購計劃回購了 2.5 億美元的普通股。

We are currently repurchasing shares under an existing $1 billion buyback authorization with just over $400 million remaining as of the close of the quarter.

目前，我們正在根據現有的 10 億美元回購授權回購股票，截至本季度末，回購授權僅剩 4 億多美元。

We expect to complete this program over the next couple of quarters consistent with the previously articulated approach and subject to market conditions.

我們預計將在接下來的幾個季度內按照之前闡述的方法並根據市場條件完成該計劃。

We have authorization for an additional $1 billion share repurchase upon completion of the Orbotech acquisition.

奧寶科技收購完成後，我們已獲授權額外回購 10 億美元的股票。

In conclusion, the results demonstrated by KLA in the December quarter reflect the company's technology leadership, the critical nature of process control on our customers' growth strategies and the value generated by our industry-leading business model.

總之，KLA 在 12 月季度展示的業績反映了公司的技術領先地位、流程控制對客戶增長戰略的關鍵性質以及我們行業領先的業務模式所產生的價值。

Given these factors and coupled with the new opportunities for market expansion represented by the anticipated Orbotech acquisition, we believe KLA is uniquely positioned to continue to deliver long-term value to stockholders.

考慮到這些因素，再加上預期收購 Orbotech 帶來的市場擴張新機遇，我們相信 KLA 處於獨特的地位，能夠繼續為股東創造長期價值。

After 3 strong years of memory investment, 2019 will be a year of digestion for this segment of the industry.

經過三年強勁的內存投資，2019年將是該細分行業的消化之年。

Customers continue to press their technology road maps, but their capacity planning remains fluid.

客戶繼續推進他們的技術路線圖，但他們的容量規劃仍然不穩定。

For KLA, we expect that given our technology leadership, coupled with expected growth in the foundry and logic segments and along with our exposure to broader opportunities in the wafer and reticle markets, we are well positioned to outperform the industry in 2019.

對於KLA 來說，我們預計，鑑於我們的技術領先地位，加上代工和邏輯領域的預期增長，以及我們在晶圓和光罩市場上獲得的更廣泛的機會，我們有能力在2019 年跑贏行業。

With that, to summarize, guidance for the March quarter is: shipments in the range of $860 million to $940 million; revenue between $880 million and $960 million; and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.35 to $1.67 per share as well as non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.39 to $1.71 per share.

總而言之，三月份季度的指導是：出貨量在 8.6 億美元至 9.4 億美元之間；收入在 8.8 億美元至 9.6 億美元之間； GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 1.35 至 1.67 美元，非 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 1.39 至 1.71 美元。

We plan to update guidance inclusive of the Orbotech acquisition shortly after completion of the transaction later this quarter.

我們計劃在本季度晚些時候交易完成後不久更新包括奧寶科技收購在內的指引。

Before turning the call over for your questions, I'd like to notify investors that we have decided to shift our 2019 New York Investor Day from the original planned date in March to later in the calendar year.

在轉接電話詢問您的問題之前，我想通知投資者，我們已決定將 2019 年紐約投資者日從原計劃的 3 月日期推遲到日曆年晚些時候。

We will update you on the new timing at a later date.

我們稍後將向您通報新的時間安排。

With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Ed to begin the Q&A.

現在，我將把電話轉回埃德以開始問答。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Bren.

謝謝你，布倫。

At this point, we'll open up the call for your questions.

此時，我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) All right.

（操作員指示）好的。

Christine, we're ready for the first question.

克里斯汀，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri)。

So Bren, I'm trying to sort of noodle through the pull-in and noodle through the impact of that.

所以布倫，我正在嘗試通過拉入和影響來排序。

So if I adjust for the pull-in, the shipments were like $2.15 billion in the back half of 2018.

因此，如果我根據拉動進行調整，2018 年下半年的出貨量約為 21.5 億美元。

And then if I adjust for that pull-in, the shipments would be, like, $965 million roughly at the midpoint for March.

然後，如果我根據這一拉動進行調整，那麼 3 月份中點的出貨量將約為 9.65 億美元。

You said before that the first half shipments would be up versus the back half.

您之前說過上半年出貨量會比下半年有所增長。

So for it to even be flat, that would imply that June shipments would have to be, like, $1.18 billion or something like that.

因此，如果要持平，那就意味著 6 月份的出貨量必須達到 11.8 億美元或類似的水平。

So they'd have to be up a lot versus March.

因此，與三月份相比，它們必須上漲很多。

So I'm just wondering, have those 2 memory push-outs, do they push out beyond June such that the June shipments would not be $1.18 billion so that it would be what you said it was before?

所以我只是想知道，這 2 個內存推出後，它們是否會推出到 6 月之後，這樣 6 月的出貨量就不會達到您之前所說的 11.8 億美元？

Yes, Tim.

是的，蒂姆。

So I think on your math, look, we had $65 million of shipment pull-ins into December quarter.

因此，我認為根據您的計算，我們在 12 月份季度的出貨量為 6500 萬美元。

So based on that guidance, yes, just that effect alone would move the number from $900 million to $965 million.

因此，根據該指導意見，是的，僅此一項效應就能將這一數字從 9 億美元增加到 9.65 億美元。

The push-outs are pretty significant in terms of 2 major projects.

就兩個主要項目而言，推出是相當重要的。

So I would say one pushed out further than the first half of the year.

所以我想說，比上半年更進一步。

The other one, we'll see.

另一位，我們拭目以待。

I think that there are a number of projects where timing might be in the middle of the year.

我認為有很多項目的時間可能是在年中。

So we'll have to see where it ultimately lands.

所以我們必須看看它最終會落在哪裡。

But clearly, it had a effect on our view.

但顯然，它對我們的觀點產生了影響。

First half now, I would expect to be down versus the second half of '18.

現在，我預計上半年的業績會比 18 年下半年有所下降。

And then we would see a recovery in the second half of '19.

然後我們會在 19 年下半年看到復蘇。

So down somewhere in and around 10% plus or minus is how I'm modeling it today, but we'll see how it plays out.

因此，我今天的建模方式是下降 10% 左右，但我們會看看結果如何。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then if I look back at the revenue, if I just take the midpoint of the revenue guidance, something like $920 million.

然後，如果我回顧一下收入，如果我只取收入指導的中點，大約是 9.2 億美元。

And I look back at what you did when you were at $920 million in the past, margin was about 200 basis points higher than what you're guiding it.

我回顧一下你們過去在 9.2 億美元時所做的事情，利潤率比你們指導的高出大約 200 個基點。

So can you maybe give a little information why is margin so low?

那麼您能否提供一些信息，為什麼保證金如此低？

Is it just mix?

只是混合嗎？

And do you get that back in June and throughout the rest of the year?

你能在六月和今年剩下的時間裡得到這個結果嗎？

So Tim, I mean, we were obviously sizing the company.

蒂姆，我的意思是，我們顯然正在評估公司的規模。

And as you can see our output from December in the $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion range.

正如您所看到的，我們 12 月份的產出在 11 億美元到 12 億美元之間。

So the decline in the second half of the year and then that carrying forward here through the first quarter is that we're taking basically a factory that's sized to ship a much higher level and spreading those costs across a smaller revenue base.

因此，今年下半年的下降以及延續到第一季度的情況是，我們基本上採用了一家規模可實現更高水平出貨的工廠，並將這些成本分攤到較小的收入基礎上。

So the volume impact of that is pushing gross margins down, and that's really the only change from a quarter-to-quarter basis as you look at the different moving parts within margin.

因此，銷量的影響正在壓低毛利率，當你觀察利潤範圍內的不同變化部分時，這實際上是季度與季度之間唯一的變化。

So I would expect as we start to see revenue pick up given the guidance we said of sequential revenue growth through the rest of the calendar year, we'll start to see some incremental gross margin improvement there.

因此，我預計，鑑於我們所說的日曆年剩餘時間收入連續增長的指導，當我們開始看到收入回升時，我們將開始看到毛利率有所改善。

And based on the guidance that we were giving in terms of outperform relative to the industry based on where consensus WFE estimates likely are, we probably see gross margins somewhere in and around, I would say, 63%, plus or minus 50 basis points as the model in the year.

根據我們根據 WFE 共識估計可能的情況給出的相對於行業跑贏大市的指導，我們可能會看到毛利率在 63% 左右，我想說的是，正負 50 個基點當年的型號。

We'll have to see how some of the mix dynamics play through.

我們必須看看一些混音動態如何發揮作用。

But obviously, we're in a much lower revenue level today.

但顯然，我們今天的收入水平要低得多。

And with the industry contracting than what we saw in calendar '18, and that will have effect on our gross margin in the near term.

隨著行業的萎縮，我們在 18 年看到了這種情況，這將在短期內影響我們的毛利率。

Your next question comes from the line of John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的約翰·皮策 (John Pitzer)。

This is Ada for John.

這是約翰的艾達。

Can you discuss if you're seeing any changes in domestic China at this point?

您能談談目前中國國內是否有任何變化嗎？

Well, the domestic China is a little weaker versus the last call where we were thinking that shipments looked about flat for the indigenous projects year-to-year.

嗯，與上次電話會議相比，中國國內的情況稍顯疲軟，我們當時認為本土項目的出貨量同比持平。

As we look at that today, it's probably somewhere in the 10% to 15% lower.

正如我們今天所看到的，它可能會低 10% 到 15%。

We'll see.

我們拭目以待。

Obviously, visibility in the second half is not so great at this point.

顯然，此時下半場的能見度並不是那麼好。

But if I look at the shipment profile of what we shipped in '18, what we expect to ship in '19, it's about 10% to 15% lower, most of it around memory.

但如果我看看我們在 18 年發貨的發貨概況，以及我們預計在 19 年發貨的發貨情況，就會發現大約下降了 10% 到 15%，其中大部分是內存。

Got it.

知道了。

And can you talk about the implementation of EUV in DRAM and logic foundry and if you're seeing any changes to the adoption cadence given kind of the slow adoption of leading-edge nodes that's being discussed right now?

您能否談談 EUV 在 DRAM 和邏輯代工廠中的實施，以及考慮到目前正在討論的前沿節點的緩慢採用，您是否看到採用節奏有任何變化？

No real change.

沒有真正的改變。

This is Rick.

這是瑞克。

In terms of the rate of adoption, we see continued piloting in early development with an intent to ramp.

就採用率而言，我們看到在早期開發中繼續進行試點，以期提高。

And we're participating in that through some of the development work we do and also in the mask shop, some of our demand has been driven by that.

我們正在通過我們所做的一些開發工作以及在面具店參與其中，我們的一些需求是由此驅動的。

But no real change in the cadence of what we've seen in the past.

但我們過去所看到的節奏並沒有真正的改變。

Your next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar from Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

This is Steve calling in behalf of Krish.

這是史蒂夫代表克里什打來的電話。

The first one I wanted to ask about was on your bare wafer inspection tool business.

我想問的第一個問題是關於你們的裸晶圓檢測工具業務。

Just given how strong that business has been performing for a while now and just given some of the moderation in wafer starts in the semi industry, how should we think about the trajectory of that business across the rest of this year?

考慮到該業務在一段時間內的表現有多強勁，並且考慮到半導體行業晶圓開工的一些放緩，我們應該如何考慮該業務在今年剩餘時間內的發展軌跡？

Yes.

是的。

So this is Bren.

這就是布倫。

So that business continues to show very strong momentum.

因此該業務繼續表現出非常強勁的勢頭。

You have to keep in mind that there are a number of things that are happening there.

你必須記住，那裡正在發生很多事情。

First of all, there was a long period of time without any investment really at all.

首先，有很長一段時間沒有真正的任何投資。

So there's a change in the capacity requirements there that customers have been investing in.

因此，客戶一直在投資的容量要求發生了變化。

That, coupled with spec changes, have driven not just the inspection tools, but also need for the metrology tools.

再加上規格的變化，不僅推動了檢測工具的發展，還推動了對計量工具的需求。

So we've seen that business perform very well through '18 and would expect as we look at '19 not much change from that business.

因此，我們看到該業務在 18 年表現非常好，並且預計在 19 年該業務不會發生太大變化。

So I would expect to see it carry forward.

所以我希望看到它繼續下去。

And based on communications so far with customers, I don't have any reason to change that assessment.

根據迄今為止與客戶的溝通，我沒有任何理由改變這一評估。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And as for my follow-up, wanted to ask about the relative trend or profile of foundry and logic demand across this year.

至於我的後續行動，想詢問今年代工和邏輯需求的相對趨勢或概況。

Is that going to be more first half weighted followed by a moderation in the back half when, I assume, memory picks up the demand profile or do you also see foundry and logic relatively steady across the year?

我認為，當內存回升需求狀況時，上半年的比重是否會更大，然後下半年會有所放緩，或者您是否也看到代工廠和邏輯全年相對穩定？

In some of the prepared remarks, we talked about it being reasonably balanced across the halves.

在一些準備好的評論中，我們談到了上下半場的合理平衡。

So I think second half could be a little bit larger, but generally pretty reasonably balanced for both logic and foundry as you add the 2 segments together.

所以我認為後半部分可能會更大一點，但當你將兩個部分加在一起時，邏輯和鑄造通常相當合理地平衡。

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question on the deferred revenue side, it was a nice uptick for September, but looks like very modest impact here in December.

我想第一個問題是關於遞延收入方面，9 月份的增長不錯，但 12 月份的影響似乎非常有限。

So I guess first question, do you think that the volatility associated with deferred revenues is now behind us?

所以我想第一個問題是，您認為與遞延收入相關的波動現在已經過去了嗎？

Yes, C.J., I think it is.

是的，C.J.，我想是的。

It wasn't that big of an issue for us.

這對我們來說並不是什麼大問題。

But certainly, we're seeing revenue much closer to shipment as you saw from the results in the December quarter and the guidance for March.

但可以肯定的是，正如您從 12 月份季度的業績和 3 月份的指導中看到的那樣，我們看到收入更接近發貨。

And if you look in the 10-Q filing, you see the reconciliation between 605 and 606, effectively the same results quarter-to-quarter.

如果您查看 10-Q 報告，您會看到 605 和 606 之間的調節，實際上每個季度的結果相同。

So there was the timing issues that played out.

所以出現了時間問題。

But at the end of the day, I think the right way to think about the business and model it given that these are really timing dynamics is pretty much the shipment number will be the revenue number with some variation related to new products.

但歸根結底，我認為考慮業務和模型的正確方法是，考慮到這些確實是時間動態，發貨數量幾乎將是收入數量，並有與新產品相關的一些變化。

Now we do ship more new products maybe than some of the peers and so that can have an effect or certain regions where you may have to go all the way to customer acceptance.

現在，我們確實推出了比一些同行更多的新產品，因此這可能會在某些地區產生影響，在這些地區，您可能必須一路走來才能獲得客戶認可。

But generally, the numbers are going to be pretty close together.

但一般來說，這些數字會非常接近。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

I guess as my follow-up, as you think about the progression of EUV and thinking specifically to foundry, can you speak to what's driving the demand here, 7-nanometer versus 5-nanometer and how you see the revenue kind of progression through calendar '19 and into calendar '20?

我想作為我的後續行動，當您思考 EUV 的發展並專門考慮代工廠時，您能否談談推動需求的因素，7 納米與 5 納米，以及您如何看待收入在日曆中的發展'19 並進入日曆'20？

I'm sorry, C.J., what's driving the demand from the device standpoint or for us?

抱歉，C.J.，從設備或我們的角度來看，是什麼推動了需求？

I'm trying to understand your demand side, both from a more modest pilot line 7-nanometer plus activity this year, ramping more aggressively to 5 next year.

我試圖了解你們的需求方面，從今年更溫和的 7 納米以上試驗線活動，到明年更積極地增加到 5 納米。

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

It's pretty straightforward actually.

實際上非常簡單。

Most of the demand early in the 7-nanometer comes out of the mask shop because that's where people are qual-ing new mask sets and driving a lot of utilization of new capability in the mask shop.

7 納米早期的大部分需求來自掩模車間，因為人們在那裡鑑定新掩模組並推動掩模車間新功能的大量利用。

And also in the development phases of trying to get those devices to work.

並且還在嘗試讓這些設備正常工作的開發階段。

And then it'll shift toward production and it will drive more in line kind of applications, both inspection and also some of the metrology needs as we ramp.

然後它將轉向生產，並將推動更多的在線應用，包括檢查以及隨著我們的發展而產生的一些計量需求。

But right now, what we're experiencing is mainly in the mask shop and the development.

但現在我們經歷的主要是面膜店和開發。

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho from Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

Maybe, Rick, as a follow-up to C.J.'s EUV question.

也許，Rick，作為 C.J. EUV 問題的後續。

From your delivery perspective, has everything generally remained on track or do you see any potential pull-ins or push-outs in terms of the timing of delivery of your reticle inspection tools?

從您的交付角度來看，一切是否總體上都保持在正軌上，或者您是否在光罩檢查工具的交付時間方面看到任何潛在的拉入或推出？

No, nothing has delayed.

不，什麼都沒有耽擱。

If anything, throughout calendar '18, we saw accelerated demand in support of a larger number of starts than we would have forecast for a year ago in terms of advanced design.

如果說有什麼不同的話，那就是在整個 18 年日曆中，我們看到了支持更多啟動數量的加速需求，這比我們一年前在先進設計方面的預測要多。

So far more tapeouts of advanced designs, both for EUV, but also just advanced 7-nanometer without EUV.

到目前為止，更多的先進設計流片，既有 EUV，也有不帶 EUV 的先進 7 納米設計。

So we're seeing the demand on both of those.

所以我們看到了對這兩者的需求。

We don't have an EUV-specific tool in the market.

我們市場上沒有專門針對 EUV 的工具。

We have tools that can cover both.

我們擁有可以涵蓋這兩方面的工具。

So we're pretty well situated to support it either way.

因此，無論哪種方式，我們都可以很好地支持它。

But that's been strong and particularly in the foundry logic area.

但這一直很強勁，尤其是在代工邏輯領域。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And maybe as a follow-up question in the DRAM market.

也許是 DRAM 市場的一個後續問題。

We've seen how, I think, in the past you've talked about an increase in metrology usage with 3D NAND.

我想，我們已經看到您過去如何談論 3D NAND 計量使用的增加。

As the DRAM industry goes to 1Y and eventually to 1Z and with increases in patterning steps, how do you see the mix of an increase in process control intensity?

隨著 DRAM 行業走向 1Y 並最終走向 1Z，並且隨著圖案化步驟的增加，您如何看待工藝控制強度增加的組合？

Is it going to be more biased towards your inspection tools because of the patterning steps or are you also seeing more metrology applications come online as the DRAM industry migrates down these next few nodes?

由於圖案化步驟，它是否會更加偏向於您的檢測工具，或者隨著 DRAM 行業向下遷移到接下來的幾個節點，您是否也會看到更多計量應用程序上線？

Yes.

是的。

Some of [both], but for sure, the DRAM will push inspection, high-level inspection sensitivity because they're more sensitive than, say, a NAND flash would be towards advanced inspection capability for smaller defects.

[兩者]中的一些，但可以肯定的是，DRAM 將提高檢查的高水平檢查靈敏度，因為它們比 NAND 閃存更敏感，對於更小的缺陷具有先進的檢查能力。

So definitely, DRAM is going to push it in terms of things like our Gen 5. Metrology, both of metrology more so I think the flatness and cleanliness on wafers for NAND has been a driver we've talked about in the past.

所以毫無疑問，DRAM 將會在像我們的第五代這樣的方面推動它。計量學，更多的是計量學，所以我認為NAND 晶圓的平坦度和清潔度一直是我們過去討論過的驅動因素。

So it then moves when you got a DRAM back to overlay constraint.

因此，當 DRAM 回到覆蓋約束時，它就會移動。

So it really depends.

所以這真的取決於。

Fortunately, for us, there are different problems that kind of push different parts of the portfolio depending on where they are in the cycle.

幸運的是，對我們來說，有不同的問題會推動投資組合的不同部分，具體取決於它們在周期中的位置。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Maybe focusing on products.

也許專注於產品。

On your flagship Gen 5 PWI inspection system, can you guys just true us up here?

在你們的旗艦 Gen 5 PWI 檢查系統上，你們能告訴我們嗎？

I know the team was anticipating 17 to 18 systems in the field exiting last year.

我知道團隊預計去年會有 17 到 18 個系統退出。

Did you guys hit that target?

你們達到這個目標了嗎？

And more importantly, sort of given the ramp of EUV, the early work on 5 and 7-nanometer logic, one alpha node for DRAM, what are your thoughts around growth of Gen 5 this calendar year?

更重要的是，考慮到 EUV 的發展、5 納米和 7 納米邏輯的早期工作、DRAM 的一個 alpha 節點，您對今年第五代的增長有何看法？

Yes, Harlan, it's Bren.

是的，哈倫，我是布倫。

So thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

So yes, we did hit our target.

所以，是的，我們確實達到了目標。

Expectations were very consistent or results were consistent with expectations for that product.

期望非常一致或者結果與對該產品的期望一致。

And as we move into next year, we're still seeing a steady cadence of investment here.

當我們進入明年時，我們仍然看到這裡的投資節奏穩定。

Most of the tools are development-focused.

大多數工具都是以開發為中心的。

We're introducing the second iteration of the product line that provides more, a better cost of ownership for customers, slightly better throughput and also has some new features with data analytics, computational capabilities, design-based capabilities and so on.

我們正在推出該產品線的第二次迭代，它為客戶提供更多、更好的擁有成本、稍微更好的吞吐量，並且還具有一些新功能，包括數據分析、計算功能、基於設計的功能等。

So it is moving along pretty well, should be deployed.

所以它進展順利，應該部署。

We'll start to see it crossover.

我們將開始看到它的交叉。

I don't know exactly what the crossover percent will look like in '19.

我不知道 19 年的交叉百分比會是什麼樣子。

But as you start to think about 5-nanometer ramps, you'll start to see more Gen 5 deployed in production.

但當您開始考慮 5 納米斜坡時，您將開始看到更多的 Gen 5 部署在生產中。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Good to see the momentum there.

很高興看到那裡的勢頭。

And then can you guys just give us an update on your multicolumn e-beam inspector system for sub 7-nanometer mask inspection?

那麼你們能給我們介紹一下你們用於亞 7 納米掩模檢測的多柱電子束檢測系統的最新情況嗎？

Last time you gave us an update, which was about a year ago, I think the team was on track to introduce systems this calendar year, calendar year '19.

上次您向我們提供更新是大約一年前的事，我認為團隊有望在今年 19 日曆年推出系統。

Can we get an update and any early metrics on performance, throughput or customer feedback?

我們能否獲得有關性能、吞吐量或客戶反饋的更新和任何早期指標？

Customer interest remains high.

客戶興趣仍然很高。

We are now on a phase of this program where because we're engaged in developments with specific customers, we're not talking publicly about progress.

我們現在正處於該計劃的一個階段，因為我們正在與特定客戶一起進行開發，所以我們不會公開談論進展情況。

But I can tell you there's a lot of interest, a lot of demand out there for capability as you've seen the increase in EUV capability and implementation.

但我可以告訴您，隨著您看到 EUV 能力和實施的增加，人們對這種能力有很大的興趣和需求。

But we're not in a position right now to go through the specifics of where we're going based on the collaborations we have.

但我們現在無法根據我們已有的合作來詳細了解我們的發展方向。

There are no further questions.

沒有其他問題了。

At this time, I turn the call back over to the presenters.

這時，我將電話轉回給演示者。

Thank you, Christine, and thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝克里斯汀，也感謝大家今天加入我們。

This concludes our conference call.

我們的電話會議到此結束。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。