科磊 (KLAC) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Christine, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the KLA-Tencor March 2017 Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Mr. Ed Lockwood, with KLA-Tencor Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

午安.我叫克莉絲汀，今天我將擔任您的會議接線生。現在，我歡迎大家參加 KLA-Tencor 2017 年 3 月季度財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謝謝。尊敬的 KLA-Tencor 投資者關係部門的 Ed Lockwood 先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Christine. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our conference call. Joining me on our call today are Rick Wallace, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer. We're here to discuss quarterly results for the period ended March 31, 2017. We released these results this afternoon at 1:15 p.m. Pacific Time. If you haven't seen the release, you can find it on our website at www.klatencor.com. A simulcast of this call will be accessible on demand following its completion on the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。大家下午好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Rick Wallace；以及我們的財務長 Bren Higgins。我們在此討論截至 2017 年 3 月 31 日的季度業績。我們於今天下午 1:15 公佈了這些結果。太平洋時間。如果您還沒有看到新聞稿，您可以在我們的網站 www.klatencor.com 上找到。本次電話會議結束後，可透過我們網站的「投資者關係」部分按需觀看同步直播。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release and in the Investor Presentation on KLA-Tencor's investor relations website. There, you'll also find a calendar of future investor events, presentations and conferences as well as links to KLA-Tencor's SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2016. In those filings, you'll also find descriptions of risk factors that could impact our future results. As you know, our future results are subject to risks. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on this call today, are subject to those risks and KLA-Tencor cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務業績的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現。在今天的收益新聞稿和 KLA-Tencor 投資者關係網站上的投資者介紹中可以找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的詳細對帳。您還可以在這裡找到未來投資者活動、演示和會議的日曆以及 KLA-Tencor 的 SEC 文件的鏈接，包括我們截至 2016 年 6 月 30 日的 10-K 表年度報告。在這些文件中，您還會發現可能影響我們未來業績的風險因素的描述。如您所知，我們的未來業績面臨風險。任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述，都受這些風險的影響，而 KLA-Tencor 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述會成真。我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有很大差異。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給里克。

Thanks, Ed, and thank you all for joining us today for our March 2017 earnings call. I plan to briefly cover 3 things with you in my prepared remarks today before handing off to Bren. First, a quick look at KLA-Tencor's outstanding performance in March, followed by a look at highlights of the very strong market share performance delivered by the company in 2016, and then concluding with an updated outlook for industry growth for KLA-Tencor in 2017.

謝謝，艾德，也謝謝大家今天參加我們的 2017 年 3 月財報電話會議。在將發言權交給布倫之前，我計劃在今天的準備好的發言中向大家簡要介紹三件事。首先，簡單回顧 KLA-Tencor 3 月份的出色表現，然後回顧該公司 2016 年非常強勁的市場份額表現的亮點，最後對 KLA-Tencor 2017 年的行業增長進行最新展望。

Let's begin with the March quarter. KLA-Tencor delivered excellent results in March, thanks to another outstanding performance by our employees in executing the company's growth strategies in what is a very exciting and dynamic period for the company and for the semiconductor industry as a whole. March shipments, revenue and diluted GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share all came in above the midpoint of our range of guidance, with shipments finishing at a record $909 million in the quarter.

讓我們從三月季度開始。KLA-Tencor 在三月取得了優異的業績，這要歸功於我們的員工在執行公司成長策略方面的又一次出色表現，這對於公司和整個半導體行業來說都是一個非常令人興奮和充滿活力的時期。3 月份的出貨量、收入以及稀釋後的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 每股收益均高於我們預期範圍的中點，本季的出貨量達到創紀錄的 9.09 億美元。

During the quarter, we experienced strength across our inspection and metrology portfolio, with growth in market leadership metrics for the March quarter continuing the momentum we achieved in calendar year 2016 and highlighting by the quarter record for our unpatterned wafer inspection products. Working in close collaboration with leading global semiconductor device manufacturers, KLA-Tencor's strategies are focused on ensuring our customers success. This effort is helping to address the most complex manufacturing challenges for inspection and measurement in the marketplace today, in both development and capacity monitoring applications.

在本季度，我們的檢測和計量產品組合表現強勁，三月份季度的市場領導地位指標繼續增長，延續了我們在 2016 年度取得的勢頭，並創下了無圖案晶圓檢測產品的季度記錄。KLA-Tencor 與全球領先的半導體裝置製造商密切合作，其策略重點是確保客戶的成功。此項努力有助於解決當今市場上在開發和產能監控應用方面檢查和測量方面最複雜的製造挑戰。

These challenges include patterning and process window issues associated with EUV and multi-patterning lithography, and as the industry moves to smaller dimensions and three-dimensional structures to address cost, power and device performance improvements. Our successful execution of these strategies continues to bear fruit in terms of market leadership and relative outperformance of KLA-Tencor.

這些挑戰包括與 EUV 和多重圖案光刻相關的圖案和製程視窗問題，以及隨著產業轉向更小尺寸和三維結構以解決成本、功率和設備性能改進的問題。我們成功實施這些策略，並持續為 KLA-Tencor 的市場領導地位和相對優異表現帶來成果。

In fact, the recent market share numbers from Gartner show the overall process control segment grew 11% in 2016, or roughly in line with WFE industry growth in the year. In that period, total revenue for KLA-Tencor grew 14% and systems revenue grew 18%. The 2016 share data also shows KLA-Tencor increased our market leadership in process control by about 300 basis points in the year, reflecting our focus on market and technology innovation and most critical applications and inspection and metrology as well as the breadth of our product and services portfolio.

事實上，Gartner 最近發布的市佔率數據顯示，2016 年整體製程控制領域成長了 11%，與當年 WFE 產業的成長大致持平。在此期間，KLA-Tencor 的總收入成長了 14%，系統收入成長了 18%。2016 年的份額數據還顯示，KLA-Tencor 在製程控制領域的市場領導地位在當年提高了約 300 個基點，這反映了我們對市場和技術創新、最關鍵的應用、檢測和計量的關注，以及我們產品和服務組合的廣度。

We saw particular strength in 2016 from optical wafer inspection. Recent successful new product introductions in this flagship market for KLA-Tencor including the launch of the new Gen 5 broadband plasma platform, plus strong customer acceptance of the Gen 4 platform for a leading edge capacity monitoring and successful new offerings in laser scanning patterned wafer inspection as well as unpatterned wafer inspection, together, contributed to expansion of the total available market for process control and growth in KLA-Tencor's share of the process control market in 2016.

我們看到 2016 年光學晶圓檢測領域表現特別強勁。KLA-Tencor 最近在這個旗艦市場成功推出了新產品，包括推出新的第五代寬頻等離子平台，加上客戶對第四代平台的強烈接受，用於領先的容量監控，以及在激光掃描圖案化晶圓檢測和非圖案化晶圓檢測方面成功推出的新產品，共同促進了工藝控制總可用市場的控制，並提高了 KLA-Tencor 在工藝市場的份額。

The story for metrology in 2016 was highlighted by the growth in optical CD metrology, which is the preferred technology for an increasing number of CD metrology applications. Optical CD is playing an enabling role in the proliferation of advanced 3D device architectures and leading edge memory and logic, measuring not only line widths but also profile features on the chip. The robust market share and relative growth delivered by KLA-Tencor in 2016 are the result of continued successful execution of product and service strategies that address the most complex inspection and measurement challenges in today's marketplace. And through that, KLA-Tencor is helping to drive growth and innovation in a period of solid, sustained performance for the semiconductor industry.

2016 年計量學發展的一大亮點是光學 CD 計量學的發展，該技術已成為越來越多 CD 計量應用的首選技術。光學 CD 在先進 3D 設備架構和前緣記憶體及邏輯的普及中發揮著推動作用，不僅可以測量線寬，還可以測量晶片上的輪廓特徵。KLA-Tencor 在 2016 年取得的強勁市場份額和相對增長得益於持續成功執行產品和服務策略，解決了當今市場上最複雜的檢測和測量挑戰。透過這種方式，KLA-Tencor 正在幫助推動半導體產業在穩健、持續表現的時期內的成長和創新。

Turning to the overall industry environment for calendar 2017. As March results have indicated across the board, the investment landscape in each of the major customer end markets today is solid and broadly based, supporting a growth outlook for the overall WFE industry that's expected to be in the mid-single-digits or higher in 2017.

回顧 2017 年的整體產業環境。正如 3 月的業績所顯示的，目前各主要客戶端市場的投資前景穩健且基礎廣泛，支持了整個 WFE 產業的成長前景，預計 2017 年該產業的成長率將達到中等個位數或更高。

Given the momentum in demand demonstrated in the March quarter results, and with upside to the original industry growth estimates for the year coming from a broadening of the competitive landscape in 10- and 7-nanometer foundry, we now see WFE growth favoring the upper end of the initial range of our estimates for 2017. And our preliminary review of the 2018 industry landscape points to a continuation of these investment trends.

鑑於三月季度業績所顯示的需求勢頭，以及 10 奈米和 7 奈米代工競爭格局的擴大為今年行業增長帶來上行空間，我們現在認為 WFE 增長將接近我們對 2017 年初步估計範圍的上限。我們對 2018 年行業格局的初步評估表明，這些投資趨勢將持續下去。

Given a business model that consistently delivers superior operating leverage and ranks KLA-Tencor in the top tier of leading semiconductor companies, and coupled with leadership position in each of the most critical process control markets, the March quarter results show that the stage is set to build on the momentum of calendar 2016 and deliver what we plan to be a year of double-digit revenue growth in 2017 for KLA-Tencor.

鑑於其業務模式始終如一地提供卓越的營運槓桿，使 KLA-Tencor 躋身領先半導體公司的前列，再加上在每個最關鍵的過程控制市場中的領導地位，三月份季度的業績表明，我們已準備好延續 2016 年的勢頭，並實現我們計劃的 2017 年 KLA-Tencor 兩位數的收入增長。

Now turning to guidance for the June quarter. Shipments are expected to be in a range of $890 million to $970 million; revenue for the quarter expected to be in the range of $885 million to $945 million; with non-GAAP diluted earnings in the range of $1.46 per share to $1.66 per share.

現在談談六月季度的指引。預計出貨量在 8.9 億美元至 9.7 億美元之間；本季收入預計在 8.85 億美元至 9.45 億美元之間；非公認會計準則稀釋收益在每股 1.46 美元至每股 1.66 美元之間。

And I will now turn the call over to Bren Higgins for his comments. Bren?

現在我將把電話轉給布倫希金斯，請他發表評論。布倫？

Thanks, Rick, and good afternoon, everyone. As Rick highlighted in his opening remarks, the March quarter represented another outstanding period of financial performance and operational execution for KLA-Tencor. Shipments, revenue, and GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share each finished above the midpoint of the range of guidance in the quarter. This result was driven by strong demand across our product portfolio as well as solid execution and cost management in our manufacturing and service operations.

謝謝，里克，大家下午好。正如 Rick 在開場白中所強調的那樣，三月季度是 KLA-Tencor 財務業績和營運執行的另一個出色時期。本季出貨量、營收以及 GAAP 和非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘均高於預期範圍的中點。這一結果得益於我們產品組合的強勁需求以及製造和服務業務中的穩健執行和成本管理。

Revenue was $914 million in the March quarter, GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.61 in the quarter and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.62. In our press release, you'll find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. With the exception of when I explicitly refer to GAAP results, my commentary will be focused on the non-GAAP results, which exclude the adjustments covered in the press release.

3 月當季營收為 9.14 億美元，本季 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 1.61 美元，非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 1.62 美元。在我們的新聞稿中，您會發現 GAAP 與非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘的對帳。除明確提及 GAAP 結果外，我的評論將集中於非 GAAP 結果，其中不包括新聞稿中涵蓋的調整。

Now turning to highlights of the March quarter demand environment. Although we are no longer guiding quarterly orders, for the time being, we will continue to share our perspective on the current end market demand picture to give investors insight into industry trends in KLA-Tencor's performance. Upon completion of an upgrade of our internal analysis systems, our plan is to begin providing an end market mix detail for shipment results and guidance beginning in the September quarter.

現在來談談三月季度需求環境的亮點。雖然我們不再指導季度訂單，但就目前而言，我們將繼續分享我們對當前終端市場需求狀況的看法，以便投資者深入了解 KLA-Tencor 業績的行業趨勢。在完成內部分析系統升級後，我們計劃從 9 月季度開始提供出貨結果和指導的終端市場組合詳細資訊。

At that time, all end market customer mix, business segment and regional breakdowns will be provided on a shipment basis and we will discontinue all formal order commentary including disclosure of the quarterly results. But for now, for the March quarter, new orders were $990 million. Foundry was 54% of new system orders in March, driven by an anticipated broadening of the customer base for investment in 10-nanometer production and 7-nanometer development and by continued investment in legacy technology nodes.

屆時，所有終端市場客戶組合、業務部門和區域細分將以出貨量為基礎提供，我們將停止所有正式訂單評論，包括季度業績的揭露。但就目前而言，3 月季度的新訂單為 9.9 億美元。3 月份，晶圓代工佔新系統訂單的 54%，這得益於預期對 10 奈米生產和 7 奈米開發的投資客戶群將擴大，以及對傳統技術節點的持續投資。

We are currently modeling foundry orders to be approximately 50% of the total in the June quarter. Memory was 42% of new orders, with investment evenly split between DRAM and NAND. We are currently modeling memory orders to be about 40% of the total in the June quarter, with NAND representing about 60% of the memory mix. Logic was 4% of new system orders and is currently forecasted to be approximately 10% of the June quarter total.

我們目前預計代工訂單將佔六月季度訂單總量的約 50%。記憶體佔新訂單的 42%，投資在 DRAM 和 NAND 之間平均分配。我們目前預計 6 月季度記憶體訂單將佔總訂單的 40% 左右，其中 NAND 約佔記憶體組合的 60%。邏輯佔新系統訂單的 4%，目前預計佔 6 月季度總額的約 10%。

In terms of the approximate distribution of orders by product group for the first quarter of calendar '17: wafer inspection was 56% of new orders; patterning was 21%, patterning includes orders from our reticle inspection business; non-semi was approximately 3%; and service was 20% total orders.

就2017年第一季按產品組劃分的訂單大致分佈而言：晶圓檢測佔新訂單的56%；圖案化佔 21%，圖案化包括來自我們的光罩檢測業務的訂單；非半導體約為3%；服務佔訂單總量的20%。

Total shipments were a record $909 million in the quarter, finishing above the $890 million midpoint of guidance for March. Looking forward, we are modeling June quarter shipments to be a new record at the midpoint of guidance and be in a range of $890 million to $970 million. Current build plans are supporting quarterly shipment levels in excess of $900 million and we expect this trend to extend at least through the second half of the calendar year. This outlook has strengthened since the earnings call back in January. Current expectations are for second half of 2017 shipments to be up mid-single digits versus the first half of the calendar year.

本季總出貨量達到創紀錄的 9.09 億美元，高於 3 月 8.9 億美元的中位數預期。展望未來，我們預計 6 月季度出貨量將創下指導中位數的新紀錄，介於 8.9 億美元至 9.7 億美元之間。目前的生產計畫支持超過 9 億美元的季度出貨量，我們預計這一趨勢至少會持續到今年下半年。自從一月份的收益電話會議以來，這種前景已經得到加強。目前預計 2017 年下半年的出貨量將比上半年成長中個位數。

Turning now to the income statement. Revenue was $914 million in March, finishing above the midpoint of the range of guidance. We expect revenue to be in the range of $885 million to $945 million in the June quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was 62.5%, in line with expectations for the quarter. The strong gross margin performance in March is consistent with recent margin trends in terms of mix of product business and operating leverage in our manufacturing and service operations. Compared to the December quarter, the benefit of the incremental sequential revenue was offset by a less favorable product mix in the period.

現在來看損益表。3 月營收為 9.14 億美元，高於預期範圍的中點。我們預計 6 月季度的營收將在 8.85 億美元至 9.45 億美元之間。非公認會計準則毛利率為62.5%，符合本季預期。3 月強勁的毛利率表現與我們製造和服務業務的產品業務組合和營運槓桿的近期利潤趨勢一致。與去年 12 月季度相比，連續收入的增量收益被本季不太有利的產品組合所抵銷。

Looking forward to the June quarter, we expect gross margin to be in the range of 62.5% and 63.5%, up about 50 basis points at the midpoint versus the March quarter, due principally to the mix of products we plan to revenue in the quarter.

展望 6 月份季度，我們預計毛利率將在 62.5% 至 63.5% 之間，較 3 月份季度中位數上升約 50 個基點，這主要歸因於我們計劃在本季度實現收入的產品組合。

As we highlighted last quarter, going forward, we expect to deliver gross margin results, a couple hundred basis points above our 2015 published business model targets due to a number of factors including customer reception of new product offerings, more efficient new product introduction execution and improved variable cost management in service and manufacturing operations.

正如我們上個季度所強調的，展望未來，我們預計毛利率結果將比我們 2015 年公佈的業務模式目標高出幾百個基點，這得益於多種因素，包括客戶對新產品的接受度、更高效的新產品推出執行以及服務和製造運營中改進的變動成本管理。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $224 million in March, up about $3 million compared with December and non-GAAP operating margin was 38%. We are modeling operating expense levels of between $234 million and $238 million in the June quarter due to higher compensation expenses and prototype materials expenses for current programs.

3 月非公認會計準則總營運費用為 2.24 億美元，較 12 月增加約 300 萬美元，非公認會計準則營運利潤率為 38%。由於目前專案的薪資費用和原型材料費用較高，我們預計 6 月季度的營運費用水準將在 2.34 億美元至 2.38 億美元之間。

For calendar '17, we are modeling operating expenses to be around $950 million due to incremental investments and product road maps supporting 3D NAND and EUV inspection and metrology opportunities as well as higher variable compensation expense. Given our gross margin expectations, we expect to continue to deliver operating margins solidly above our published model for the foreseeable future.

對於 2017 年，我們預計營運費用約為 9.5 億美元，原因是增量投資和支援 3D NAND 和 EUV 檢測和計量機會的產品路線圖以及更高的可變薪酬費用。鑑於我們的毛利率預期，我們預計在可預見的未來，營業利潤率將繼續遠高於我們公佈的模型。

Our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 20.7% in the quarter, just below our previously guided long-term planning rate of 22%, reflecting a higher mix of revenue from products developed or manufactured offshore and other discrete items impacting the tax rate. You should assume a 22% tax rate going forward for modeling purposes.

本季我們的非公認會計準則有效稅率為 20.7%，略低於我們先前指導的 22% 的長期計畫稅率，這反映了來自海外開發或製造的產品以及其他影響稅率的獨立項目的收入組合較高。為了建模目的，您應該假設未來的稅率為 22%。

Finally, net income -- non-GAAP net income for the March quarter was $256 million and we ended the quarter with 158 million fully diluted shares outstanding.

最後，淨收入－3 月份季度的非 GAAP 淨收入為 2.56 億美元，本季末我們擁有 1.58 億股完全稀釋流通股。

I'll now turn briefly to highlights in the balance sheet and our cash flow statement. Cash and investments ended the quarter at $2.7 billion, an increase of approximately $111 million compared with the December quarter. Cash from operations was $225 million in the quarter and free cash flow was $215 million.

現在我將簡要介紹資產負債表和現金流量表中的重點內容。本季末，現金和投資為 27 億美元，與 12 月季度相比增加約 1.11 億美元。本季經營現金流為 2.25 億美元，自由現金流為 2.15 億美元。

In March, we paid an aggregate of $86 million of regular quarterly dividends and dividend equivalents for fully vested restricted stock units and made a supplemental payment of $25 million towards our outstanding term loan. We expect to continue executing our delevering commitments over the remainder of the calendar year, consistent with our leverage targets.

3 月份，我們支付了總計 8,600 萬美元的定期季度股息和完全歸屬限制性股票單位的股息等價物，並補充支付了 2,500 萬美元用於償還未償還的定期貸款。我們預計將在今年剩餘時間內繼續履行去槓桿承諾，與我們的槓桿目標保持一致。

In conclusion, KLA-Tencor's results in March reflect our market leadership, the critical nature of process control in our customers' growth strategies at the leading edge and in legacy design rules and our industry-leading business model. This, fueled by record total backlog of $1.7 billion at the end of the March quarter, position the company for another year of greater-than-market growth and an overall WFE industry environment that is currently forecasted to grow mid-single digits or higher in calendar year '17. This performance demonstrates the company's market leadership, the strong customer acceptance of the portfolio of solutions addressing the most critical yield requirements of leading edge and our operational core competencies.

總之，KLA-Tencor 三月的業績反映了我們的市場領導地位、工藝控制在客戶前沿成長策略和傳統設計規則中的關鍵性以及我們行業領先的商業模式。得益於三月季度末創紀錄的 17 億美元總積壓訂單，該公司將迎來又一年高於市場的增長，並且目前預計 2017 日曆年 WFE 行業整體環境將實現中等個位數或更高的增長。這一業績證明了公司的市場領導地位、客戶對滿足最關鍵的前沿產量要求的解決方案組合的強烈接受度以及我們的營運核心競爭力。

With that, to summarize, our guidance for the June quarter is: shipments in the range of $890 million to $970 million; revenue between $885 million and $945 million; and GAAP diluted EPS from $1.44 to $1.64 per share as well as non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.46 to $1.66 per share.

總而言之，我們對 6 月季度的預期是：出貨量在 8.9 億美元至 9.7 億美元之間；收入在 8.85 億美元至 9.45 億美元之間； GAAP 稀釋每股收益從每股 1.44 美元增至 1.64 美元，非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益從每股 1.46 美元增至 1.6 美元。

This concludes our remarks on the quarter. I'll now turn the call back over to Ed to begin the Q&A. Ed?

我們對本季的評論到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給 Ed，開始問答環節。艾德？

Okay. Thank you, Bren. At this point, I'd like to open up the call up to Q&A.

好的。謝謝你，布倫。現在，我想開始電話問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

All right, Christine, we're ready for your first question.

好的，克里斯汀，我們已經準備好回答你的第一個問題了。

Your first question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from Cowen.

您的第一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Timothy Arcuri。

Bren, I just wanted to ask you about maybe as you think about updating your model. Everyone else is coming out with these financial models that are tied to WFE. And it looks pretty obvious that this year, WFE -- you guys aren't quite as high but if you look at the other guys, they're thinking like high, high 30s, maybe $39 billion. So it seems like $40 billion is now sort of like the new norm, almost. So I'm wondering can you give us a sense of what the EPS would be in a new model at a $40 billion WFE? And then I have a follow-up.

布倫，我只是想問你是否考慮過更新你的模型。其他所有人都推出了與 WFE 相關的財務模型。很明顯，今年 WFE 的預期沒有那麼高，但如果你看看其他人，他們預期的預期是 30 多億美元，也許是 390 億美元。因此，現在看來，400 億美元幾乎已經成為了新常態。所以我想知道您能否讓我們了解一下在 400 億美元 WFE 的新模式下 EPS 會是多少？然後我有一個後續問題。

Well Tim, we haven't published a new model so it's a little bit difficult for me to answer that in terms of different WFE levels. I mean, I think the way you have to work through that is as I've said around the revenue performance, from an operating margin perspective, I think we're operating a couple hundred basis points better than what we had published before. But the easiest way to model that is if you're talking about in nearer term, and I think it's an important assumption that we're talking now or a year from now and so on, but if you're just thinking near term a $40 billion environment, you'd have to think about process control intensity on that. And I think in calendar '16, process control intensity was below 13 percentile. So sometime between -- somewhere between 13% and 14%. The mix of business would be a factor in that. Market share, what Gartner just reported 51%. We've got internal objectives to gain share at least 1 point a share a year over the next few years, so that's certainly a factor there. And then our service business, which is currently -- will be somewhere around $800 million into calendar '17. So if you put all that together with the operating margin I suggested, I think you can probably work your way to an EPS result.

嗯，蒂姆，我們還沒有發布新的模型，所以我很難根據不同的 WFE 等級來回答這個問題。我的意思是，我認為你必須解決這個問題，正如我所說的那樣，從收入表現來看，從營業利潤率的角度來看，我認為我們的營運比我們之前公佈的要好幾百個基點。但最簡單的建模方式是，如果你談論的是近期的情況，我認為我們談論的是現在或一年後等的一個重要假設，但如果你只是考慮近期 400 億美元的環境，你必須考慮過程控制強度。我認為在 2016 年，過程控制強度低於 13 個百分點。所以介於 13% 和 14% 之間。業務組合是其中的一個因素。在市佔率方面，Gartner 剛剛報告稱為 51%。我們的內部目標是在未來幾年內每年至少增加 1 個百分點的份額，所以這當然是一個因素。然後，我們的服務業務，目前——到 2017 年將達到 8 億美元左右。因此，如果你把所有這些與我建議的營業利潤率結合起來，我想你大概就能得到每股盈餘的結果。

Awesome. And then I guess, Rick, a question for you. So there's a lot of concerns, I've actually gotten a lot of questions recently about some perceptions that there's a lot of reuse between 10 and 7-nanometer. I guess it sort of ignores all the investments that still has to be made at 10. But can you talk about that? I guess it comes down to how much backfill there is on 10-nanometer. But can you just talk about that from like a high level?

驚人的。那我想問你一個問題，瑞克。因此存在著許多擔憂，事實上，我最近收到了很多關於 10 奈米和 7 奈米之間大量重複使用的看法的問題。我想這有點忽略了在 10 時仍需進行的所有投資。但你能談論一下這個嗎？我猜這取決於 10 奈米上有多少回填。但您能從高層次來談論這個問題嗎？

Absolutely, Tim. I think that the biggest issue associated with 10 and 7 is the number of design starts that there are that are ultimately going to land at 7. And 7's a much more significant node than what we saw with 20 going to 16. So therefore, we don't see reuse as being as significant, mainly because there's going to be such an expansion in the overall capacity. So we think that'll drive our intensity. And it will be more like what we saw with the 28 node when you combine 10 and 7 to look more like that. So we feel pretty good about how that is playing out. Not only that, you have multiple players in the 10 and 7 race, so you've got broad industry support, a number of foundries all competing for that as there are increased starts.

當然，提姆。我認為 10 和 7 之間最大的問題是最終落在 7 的設計起點數量。與我們看到 20 到 16 的節點相比，7 是一個更重要的節點。因此，我們認為重複使用並不那麼重要，主要是因為整體容量將會擴大。所以我們認為這會提高我們的強度。當您將 10 和 7 結合起來時，它會更像我們在 28 個節點中看到的。因此，我們對事情的進展感到非常滿意。不僅如此，在 10 英寸和 7 英寸的競爭中還有多個參與者，因此您擁有廣泛的行業支持，隨著開工數量的增加，許多代工廠都在爭奪這一支持。

Your next question comes from the line of Farhan Ahmad from Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。

My question is regarding the OpEx increase second half of the year. Can you just talk about what exactly are you investing in? And you touch a little bit upon the EUV opportunity, and I just want to understand like is there something new that you are doing in that area or just accelerating some of the programs that you have there?

我的問題是關於下半年營運支出的成長。能談談您具體投資了什麼嗎？您稍微談到了 EUV 機會，我只是想了解一下，您在該領域是否有新舉措，或者只是在加速您在那裡進行的一些項目？

Yes, Farhan. Thanks. It's a good question. So there is some acceleration, I will call it incremental investment. We think there are opportunities for us on the inspection side, well, frankly metrology side as well, for driving more process control into 3D NAND. And so there are number of efforts in the company that are focused on that. There's also work we're doing to enable EUV development activities. And so there's work there. Finally, the industry has strengthened, certainly the company performance has strengthened. So there's some variable comp dynamics that are part of that. And so when you add it all up, it looks like it's about $20 million higher for the year than what I was suggesting back in January. But our outlook has strengthened as well. So I think if you look back January versus today, we're probably in excess of $200 million of incremental revenues to where we see things today. And so if you follow our traditional drop-through model of operating margin, it's an incremental $20 million or so in costs. So it fits our model, and we see it as an opportunity to invest in some of these big opportunities. We think that will help drive process control intensity into '18 and '19.

是的，法爾漢。謝謝。這是個好問題。因此存在一些加速，我稱之為增量投資。我們認為，我們在檢測方面，坦率地說計量方面也有機會為 3D NAND 帶來更多的過程控制。因此，公司為此做出了許多努力。我們也正在進行一些工作來推動 EUV 開發活動。所以那裡有工作。最後，產業增強了，公司業績當然也增強了。因此，其中有一些可變的動態因素。因此，當你把所有這些加起來時，看起來今年的金額比我 1 月建議的金額高出約 2000 萬美元。但我們的前景也變得更加強勁。因此，我認為，如果回顧一月份與今天的情況，我們的增量收入可能比今天增加了 2 億美元。因此，如果遵循我們傳統的營業利潤率下降模型，成本將增加約 2000 萬美元。因此它符合我們的模式，我們將其視為投資這些重大機會的機會。我們認為這將有助於推動 2018 年和 2019 年的製程控制強度。

And then, Rick, you talked about 2018 outlook looking positive at this stage. Can you maybe touch on some of the product drivers that you -- that give you confidence of some growth in 2018?

然後，里克，你談到了 2018 年的前景在現階段看起來是積極的。您能否談談一些讓您對 2018 年的成長充滿信心的產品驅動因素？

Sure. I think that as you look out into '18, what you see is that the investment time frame that will include work on the 5-nanometer, so as you get to later in the year, and then continued expansion in addition to additional capacity being brought on by the guys who aren't in the lead in the 10 and 7. So that's really from the foundry standpoint. Memory, you have continued investment going on kind of across the board. And our process control intensity is strengthening in memory so we see continued drive from that. And of course, we've all talked about the investment that's going on in China. So right now, it looks pretty good and our customers are certainly excited about their prospects as we go forward.

當然。我認為，當你展望 2018 年時，你會看到投資時間框架將包括 5 奈米的工作，所以當你進入今年晚些時候時，除了由那些在 10 奈米和 7 奈米方面未處於領先地位的公司帶來的額外產能之外，還會繼續擴張。所以這確實是從代工的角度來看的。記憶中，您一直在全方位地持續投資。而且，我們在記憶體方面的流程控制強度正在加強，因此我們看到了持續的推動力。當然，我們都談論了在中國正在進行的投資。所以現在，情況看起來相當不錯，我們的客戶對我們未來的前景感到非常興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question, I imagine you have a pretty good view today in terms of the capital intensity as we migrate down to 7-nanometer, and would love to hear your thoughts on what that intensity looks like from process control vis-à-vis 10 or 14, whichever's easier as a compare for you.

我想第一個問題是，我想您今天對我們遷移到 7 奈米時的資本密集度有一個很好的看法，並且很想听聽您對與 10 奈米或 14 奈米（無論哪個對您來說更容易比較）相比，從製程控制的角度來看這種密集度是什麼樣的看法。

Well, so C.J., it's Bren. I mean, as we look to calendar -- or we look at 7-nanometer, I mean, 7-nanometer has a full shrink. You're shrinking in the front end. You also have -- you're shrinking in backend in transistor wiring. So we think that, that, coupled with the multi-patterning schemes, the process integration structures the customers are dealing with, those new materials in the backend, will create a number of process window challenges we think will be good for our business. As we move into 7-nanometer, we have a number of new products that will come out that customers will be able to try to address some of these technology challenges but also drive cost of ownership. So I think process control intensity per wafer goes up somewhere in that 20-ish percent range or so. Obviously the number of wafer starts ultimately over time, and design starts, will be a factor in that because lots of designs change how customers invest. But how we're looking at it now is, I think that to Rick's earlier comments, I mean, reuse will be limited. And I think the new product introductions, plus the technology road map, will be a good driver for our business.

嗯，C.J.，我是 Bren。我的意思是，當我們查看日曆時 - 或者我們查看 7 奈米，我的意思是，7 奈米已經完全縮小了。你在前端正在萎縮。您還擁有—晶體管佈線後端正在縮小。因此我們認為，再加上多重圖案化方案、客戶正在處理的製程整合結構以及後端的新材料，將會帶來許多製程窗口挑戰，我們認為這對我們的業務有利。隨著我們進入 7 奈米，我們將推出一系列新產品，客戶將能夠嘗試解決其中的一些技術挑戰，但也會增加擁有成本。因此我認為每個晶圓的製程控制強度將上升約 20% 左右。顯然，隨著時間的推移，晶圓的啟動數量和設計的啟動數量將成為其中的一個因素，因為許多設計會改變客戶的投資方式。但我們現在的看法是，我認為對於 Rick 先前的評論，我的意思是，重複使用將受到限制。我認為新產品的推出以及技術路線圖將對我們的業務產生良好的推動作用。

That's very helpful. And I guess as my follow-up, if you make the assumption that your revenues, market growth in calendar '18, will the OpEx uptick we just saw be temporary or will that continue? Will you continue to invest given the heightened revenues? And this is just investments not including the increase in variable comp.

這非常有幫助。我想作為我的後續問題，如果您假設您的收入、2018 年的市場成長，我們剛剛看到的營運支出上升是暫時的還是會持續下去？鑑於收入增加，您會繼續投資嗎？這只是投資，不包括可變薪酬的增加。

Well, the variable comp will adjust, right? So that's one factor that will play out as you move into '18. I think the easiest way for you to think about modeling the company is back to the model that we had put out, we're targeting an operating margin level based on certain revenue targets. And we're exceeding the published model because of the strengths in gross margin, which we believe are sustainable. And so that's what's driving the outperformance. So as revenue grows, we will invest. And I think that as I outlined earlier, I think there's a lot of opportunities out there and so we'll invest in those. But we're committed to the operating model and that's how you've got to think about it.

那麼，變數 comp 將會調整，對嗎？所以這是進入 2018 年後將發揮作用的一個因素。我認為，您思考公司建模的最簡單方法是回到我們提出的模型，我們根據某些收入目標設定營業利潤率水準。由於毛利率優勢，我們的業績超出了已發布的模型，我們相信這種優勢是可持續的。這就是推動業績優異的因素。因此，隨著收入的成長，我們就會進行投資。我認為，正如我之前概述的那樣，我認為有很多機會，所以我們會對它們進行投資。但我們致力於營運模式，你必須這樣考慮。

Your next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Last call you guys talked about the potential for shipments to be slightly down second half versus first half, now you're expecting second half to be up by mid-single-digit percentage points. So maybe you can just help us understand what's driving the better second half view. Is it foundry, logic, 10, 7, or is it memory, is it legacy China, is it a combination of all of the above?

上次你們談到下半年出貨量可能比上半年略有下降，現在你們預計下半年出貨量將成長中等個位數百分點。所以也許您可以幫助我們了解推動下半年前景更好的因素。是代工、邏輯、10、7，還是內存、是中國的傳統，還是以上所有的組合？

Yes, Harlan, it's Bren, and thank you for the comment. It really is more of an all of the above statement. Certainly, logic foundry into the second half of the year has strengthened in terms of the shipment profile, so, and we certainly saw that versus where we were in January. So now looks like it's up a little bit, and it's been really filling out in the December quarter. So we feel pretty good about that. I think in China, we continue to be surprised by the pull, customer pull that we see from those customers. So that's a factor in it as well. So -- but I think all segments right now are investing and are putting a lot of pressure on us in terms of quick delivery. So I think the good thing about the upside we're seeing is its quick orders and quick deliveries, which will enable us to drive some revenue performance in the second half. But that's basically what's driving it. And I think finally, the only other thing is that the order profile -- so you look at the backlog that we're bring into the year, the order result in March, what we expect to be a book-to-bill greater than 1 in June. So we've got a fair amount of sort of backlog or runway in terms of what we see coming and how to scale and plan the factory through the second half of the year.

是的，哈蘭，我是布倫，謝謝你的評論。它實際上更像是上述所有陳述。當然，從出貨量來看，下半年邏輯代工廠的表現已經增強，與一月份相比，我們確實看到了這一點。所以現在看起來它有所上升，並且在 12 月季度真正得到了充實。所以我們對此感覺很好。我認為在中國，我們繼續對來自這些客戶的吸引力感到驚訝。這也是其中一個因素。所以——但我認為目前所有部門都在投資，並在快速交付方面給我們帶來很大壓力。因此，我認為我們看到的積極方面是其快速訂單和快速交付，這將使我們能夠在下半年推動一些收入表現。但這基本上就是推動它的原因。最後，我認為，唯一的另一件事就是訂單概況——所以你看看我們今年的積壓訂單，三月的訂單結果，我們預計六月的訂單出貨比將大於 1。因此，就我們預見的未來以及如何在下半年擴大和規劃工廠而言，我們有相當多的積壓或跑道。

I'd just add to that, Harlan, I think one of the things that changed in the last 3 months is we were anticipating but not convinced that there was going to be this broad support for the 10, 7 across multiple customers. And we see a lot more evidence of that now so that really has strengthened the foundry side of the equation to Bren's point, driving all those things. So it was a good quarter from that regard.

我想補充一點，哈蘭，我認為過去 3 個月發生的變化之一是，我們預期但並不確信 10、7 會在多個客戶中得到如此廣泛的支持。現在我們看到了更多證據，這確實加強了布倫所指出的代工廠方面，推動了所有這些事情。從這個角度來看，這是一個好的季度。

Great insights. Recently on the memory side, we were talking to the CTOs of one of your large 3D NAND memory customers and when we asked him about his equipment spending intensity going from 2D to 3D, he's saying that most of his buys are 3 areas: number one, the position; number two, edge; number three, in metrology. And this was for 32-layer 3D. They're transitioning to 64-layer now and still saying that metrology tool buys are a very high priority. So I know that you guys have been wanting to collect more data on this. But it seems that on the metrology side, whether it's overlay, film thickness measurement, CD, whatever, that your metrology intensity for 3D is increasing pretty dramatically over 2D. So first of all, are you seeing this sort of higher metrology intensity on 3D versus your prior assumptions? And is there any way to kind of quantify that?

很棒的見解。最近在內存方面，我們與你們一家大型 3D NAND 內存客戶的 CTO 進行了交談，當我們問他從 2D 到 3D 的設備支出強度時，他說他的大部分購買都在 3 個方面：第一，位置；第二，邊緣；第三，計量學。這是 32 層 3D。他們現在正在向 64 層過渡，並且仍然表示計量工具的購買是重中之重。所以我知道你們一直想收集更多這方面的數據。但似乎在計量方面，無論是覆蓋、薄膜厚度測量、CD 或其他什麼，3D 的計量強度都比 2D 大幅增加。那麼首先，與您先前的假設相比，您是否看到 3D 上的計量強度更高？有沒有什麼方法可以量化這一點？

Yes, Harlan, yes. I mean, the metrology side has been pretty healthy. The concern we have was actually on the other side, in the defectivity side being lower intensity and we're seeing that strengthen and that's relatively early just due to the offerings that we have. But I think that was the area where we think there's more upside because of all the work that people have to do to do destructive tests. And as the complexity increases, there's more opportunity. So we do think the intensity goes up. And I think that if you look at planar -- overall process control intensity for planar versus 3D, they're actually pretty comparable now and likely more upside to that as we go forward.

是的，哈蘭，是的。我的意思是，計量方面一直相當健康。我們實際上擔心的是另一方面，缺陷方面的強度較低，我們看到這種情況正在加強，而且由於我們所提供的產品，這相對較早。但我認為，這是我們認為有更多好處的領域，因為人們必須做大量的工作才能進行破壞性測試。隨著複雜性的增加，機會也隨之增加。所以我們確實認為強度會上升。我認為，如果你看一下平面——平面與 3D 的整體過程控制強度，它們現在實際上相當具有可比性，並且隨著我們前進，它們可能會有更大的優勢。

Your next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

My first one is on gross margins. You're guiding Q2 gross margins to 62.5 to 63.5, which continue to be a pretty strong level, above levels we had seen 2, 3 years ago. Is this kind of the new normal for the company, and we should expect this to be a sustainable gross margin number? Or going forward should we expect kind of reversion to the 59% to 60% range?

我的第一個問題是關於毛利率。您預計第二季的毛利率將達到 62.5 至 63.5，這仍然是一個非常強勁的水平，高於我們 2、3 年前的水平。這對公司來說是一種新常態嗎？我們應該期待這是一個可持續的毛利率數字嗎？或者我們應該預期未來會回歸到 59% 到 60% 的區間？

Yes, it's a good question. And really, we're seeing benefit in a lot of places. I mean, we're seeing improving margin profiles in service. We're seeing improving margin profile across products. New product introduction execution has been very strong in terms of how you manage from transitioning from one product to another. So -- and at these revenue levels, I think that the scaling of our factory and the leverage that exists in that has all been good. So I don't envision a drop-off like you described. I mean, certainly at these revenue levels I think as I guided, I thought calendar '17 was 62 plus or minus 50 basis points. I think we're probably at the higher end of that guidance range now as we look into next year. And I don't see anything on the horizon that suggests that this profile will change going forward. So we feel pretty good about it. And as I said earlier, I think what's driving how we're looking at our operating model and performance at various revenue levels is not so much about what we're spending but how much more gross margin we think we're going to generate from our revenue.

是的，這是個好問題。事實上，我們在很多地方都看到了好處。我的意思是，我們看到服務利潤率正在提高。我們看到所有產品的利潤率都在提高。從如何管理從一種產品到另一種產品的過渡來看，新產品的推出執行非常強大。所以 - 在這些收入水平下，我認為我們工廠的規模和其中存在的槓桿作用都是好的。所以我不認為會出現像你所描述的那樣的下降。我的意思是，當然在這些收入水準下，我認為按照我的指導，我認為 2017 年的收入是 62 加減 50 個基點。我認為，當我們展望明年時，我們現在可能處於該指導範圍的高端。並且我看不到任何跡象表明這種狀況將來會發生變化。所以我們對此感覺很好。正如我之前所說，我認為，決定我們如何看待我們的營運模式和不同收入水平的業績的因素並不是我們的支出，而是我們認為我們將從收入中產生多少毛利率。

Great. And then I had a follow-up on the wafer side of things. I think it's been about a decade since the Shin-Etsus and the SUMCOs and the Filtronics have expanded capacity in a meaningful way. And we hear more and more about very tight wafer supply these days. Just curious have you had preliminary talks with your customer about potentially expanding capacity? Or are they still very disciplined and still at 12 to 18 months out before they make a meaningful change in their capacity plans?

偉大的。然後我對晶圓方面的情況進行了跟進。我認為，自從信越、SUMCO 和 Filtronics 以有意義的方式擴大產能以來，已經大約十年了。最近我們越來越常聽到有關晶圓供應非常緊張的消息。只是好奇您是否與客戶就擴大產能的可能性進行初步會談？或者他們仍然非常自律，仍需 12 到 18 個月的時間才會對其產能計劃做出有意義的改變？

Well, we have ongoing conversations with them as they are -- we're critical suppliers to them. And there has been levels of investment for technology capability on a routine basis. But we have seen expansion recently. And 2017 looks like it's going to be a very good year overall relative to capacity in support of increased capacity demand. So that business is part of the strength that we're seeing.

嗯，我們正在與他們進行持續對話——我們是他們的重要供應商。並且已經定期對技術能力進行一定程度的投資。但我們最近看到了擴張。從產能來看，2017 年整體而言將是非常好的一年，可以滿足不斷增長的產能需求。因此，這項業務是我們所看到的優勢的一部分。

So Toshiya, the only thing I'll add to that is that in our unpatterned inspection business, we had a record year in FY '16 and we just had a record quarter in that business in the March quarter from a quarter perspective. Now some of that is 3D NAND because 3D NAND is driving unpatterned inspection. They basically use these tools to monitor the deposition equipment to ensure cleanliness and so on. But also, the wafer activity is a part of that. And I think that's starting and we expect to see that growing a little bit over time here and it will be a nice tailwind as we progress through this year.

因此，Toshiya，我唯一要補充的是，在我們的無圖案檢測業務中，我們在 2016 財年創下了紀錄，從季度角度來看，我們在 3 月份季度的無圖案檢測業務創下了紀錄。現在其中一些是 3D NAND，因為 3D NAND 正在推動無圖案檢查。他們基本上使用這些工具來監控沉積設備以確保清潔度等等。而且，晶圓活動也是其中的一部分。我認為這才剛剛開始，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這種情況會逐漸增加，這將成為我們今年取得進展的良好順風。

Your next question comes from the line of Romit Shah from Nomura.

您的下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

I think there's been this perception, or there was at least, that as memory spending grew as a percentage of WFE, KLA's revenue growth would underperform. That's kind of the trend that we saw in 2014 and '15. But more recently, the revenue performance has been substantially better in spite of pretty healthy memory spending. And I can't say I appreciate what's the difference this cycle. And if you could talk maybe a little bit about if DRAM continues to grow as a percentage of WFE, how does KLA do in that environment?

我認為存在這樣的看法，或者至少曾經存在過，隨著記憶體支出在 WFE 中所佔比例的增長，KLA 的收入增長將表現不佳。這就是我們在 2014 年和 2015 年看到的趨勢。但最近，儘管記憶體支出相當可觀，但收入表現卻大幅改善。我無法說我了解這個週期有什麼不同。您是否可以稍微談談，如果 DRAM 在 WFE 中的百分比繼續增長，那麼 KLA 在這種環境下的表現如何？

Well, there's really 2 things. One, what we saw in the period you referred to where it was underperforming, where we underperformed, I think the other thing that happened in addition to the mix shifting quite fast towards memory, you also had a lot of reuse happening. So it's kind of a combination of factors that played against us. What we have now is expansion of capacity continuing in foundry. Foundry continues to be reasonably strong, less reuse, more players, and our memory process control intensity going up over time. And then some other factors like the last conversation we just had like the OEMs and where the wafer manufacturer is investing. So really a broad customer base. On top of all that, we have China, where the process control intensity tends to be higher overall because these are smaller projects. So we have a lot of factors working in our favor that are supportive of our revenue growth performance.

嗯，實際上有兩件事。首先，我們看到您提到的那段時期表現不佳，我們表現不佳，我認為除了混合向內存快速轉變之外，還發生了大量的重複使用。所以這是對我們不利的多種因素的綜合作用。目前，我們正持續擴大代工廠的產能。Foundry 繼續保持相當強勁的狀態，重複使用較少，參與者較多，而且我們的記憶體過程控制強度隨著時間的推移而不斷提高。然後還有一些其他因素，像是我們剛才討論的 OEM 以及晶圓製造商的投資地點。因此，客戶群確實很廣泛。最重要的是，在中國，由於這些項目規模較小，因此整體而言，製程控制強度往往更高。因此，有許多有利因素支持我們的收入成長表現。

So is it fair, Rick, to say that you're sort of agnostic to the mix of WFE?

那麼，里克，說你對 WFE 的混合有點不可知，這公平嗎？

Not agnostic. We have a much higher percentage of adoption in foundry than we do in memory. But unless there's a major shift in terms of the relative performance, we believe we'll continue to perform in line or better than the industry as we go forward.

不是不可知論者。我們在代工廠的採用率比在記憶體方面的採用率高得多。但除非相對錶現有重大轉變，否則我們相信，在未來的發展中，我們的表現將繼續與產業保持一致或更好。

Your next question comes from the line of Edwin Mok from Needham & Company.

您的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok。

So recently one of your customer, and I think we've heard from other people as well that there's talk about shrinking from 28 to 22-nanometer rather than moving down to 14 and then 10, 7, right? And how would that benefit or affect your business? Do you expect that shrink to drive increased process improvement?

最近，你們的一位客戶，我想我們也從其他人那裡聽說，他們正在討論從 28 奈米縮小到 22 奈米，而不是縮小到 14 奈米，然後再縮小到 10 奈米、7 奈米，對嗎？這會為您的業務帶來什麼好處或影響？您是否希望這種縮小能推動流程改善？

I'm sorry, from 28 to 22, is that what you said?

抱歉，從28到22，您是這麼說的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. Sure, I mean, any time there's any kind of shrink going on that there tends to be increased demand for -- especially on the wafer side, wafer inspection side for finding smaller defects so that will drive it. But you're talking about a relatively small part of our overall market so you wouldn't see as big a change as you would in a node shift down to 7-nanometer, for example, if that make sense. But sure, any of those trends are good and especially when the fabs -- from our standpoint, if it's the smaller fab doing it, the relative process control intensity is higher just because of where they are on the yield curve and on the volume curve, if that makes sense.

是的。當然，我的意思是，任何時候發生任何類型的收縮，需求都會增加 - 特別是在晶圓方面，晶圓檢測方面需要發現更小的缺陷，這將推動它的發展。但是您談論的是我們整體市場中相對較小的一部分，因此您不會看到像節點轉移到 7 奈米那樣大的變化，如果這說得通的話。但當然，任何這些趨勢都是好的，特別是當晶圓廠——從我們的角度來看，如果是規模較小的晶圓廠在做這件事，相對的過程控制強度就會更高，因為它們在產量曲線和產量曲線上的位置，如果這有意義的話。

Actually, that's helpful color there. And then on your guidance outlook, I think you talked about from a logic order picking up this quarter. Is this kind of a renewed resumption of spending by the logic guys or is it just a kind of one quarter timing of things?

事實上，那是一種很有幫助的顏色。然後關於您的指導前景，我認為您談到了本季邏輯順序的提升。這是否是邏輯學家們重新開始支出的表現，還是只是某個季度的時間安排？

Yes, I think when you look at the -- across the year, our view on logic spending in '17 versus '16 is relatively flat, so I think it's a quarterly dynamic more than anything. So yes, I think it's just -- we got orders that are going to get placed and the numbers will be higher next quarter.

是的，我認為，從全年來看，我們對 2017 年與 2016 年的邏輯支出的看法相對平穩，所以我認為這主要是一個季度動態。是的，我認為——我們收到了即將下達的訂單，而且下個季度的數字會更高。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Chin from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Stephen Chin。

I just had a follow-up question on WFE spend from China. In China, we are continuing to see satellite pictures of some of these big domestic China fabs making pretty good progress constructing their shelves. How impactful do you think domestic China WFE will be this year for pilot line equipment?

我剛才有一個關於中國 WFE 支出的後續問題。在中國，我們不斷看到衛星圖片顯示，一些中國國內大型晶圓廠在建造貨架方面取得了相當好的進展。您認為今年中國國內的 WFE 對中試線設備的影響有多大？

Well, when you look at our order profile, I mean, it was -- so what we saw in '16 and what we expect to see in '17 for the most part is foundry-centric. And so it was roughly 15% of foundry orders in '16 and maybe 25% of foundry orders in '17. I think what's interesting is while the memory investment from a shipment perspective is more of an '18 and beyond dynamic, we are starting to see memory orders show up on the funnel. And so as we look, I'm not sure exactly when we'll see those orders booked, whether we'll see them book in June, or whether we'll see them book in September. But they are for shipments in early '18. And so your question about progress on the facilities is a good one. And so far as we monitor that and we begin to staff up in anticipation of supporting these ramps, these are factors we watch pretty closely. But right now, there's a lot of activity there, and we're chasing -- trying to hire people and ramp up to be able to support those customers in a pretty diverse fab footprint overall across the country.

嗯，當你查看我們的訂單概況時，我的意思是 - 我們在 2016 年看到的以及我們預計在 2017 年看到的大部分都是以代工為中心的。因此，這大約佔 2016 年代工訂單的 15%，約佔 2017 年代工訂單的 25%。我認為有趣的是，雖然從出貨量的角度來看記憶體投資更多的是 18 年及以後的動態，但我們開始看到記憶體訂單出現在漏斗中。因此，當我們看的時候，我不確定我們什麼時候會看到這些訂單被預訂，我們是否會在六月看到它們被預訂，或者我們是否會在九月看到它們被預訂。但它們將於 2018 年初發貨。所以你關於設施進展的問題很好。就我們對此的監控而言，我們開始增加人員以支持這些坡道，這些都是我們密切關注的因素。但目前，那裡有很多活動，我們正在追逐——試圖僱用人員並加大力度，以便能夠在全國範圍內相當多樣化的晶圓廠足跡中為這些客戶提供支持。

And a follow-up question on the market share gains that KLA saw last year. Do you get the sense that customers were waiting for KLA's new products last year, and the strong gains we saw last year should continue into this year as well?

後續問題是關於 KLA 去年的市場份額成長。您是否感覺到去年客戶一直在等待 KLA 的新產品，並且去年看到的強勁成長勢頭也應該會延續到今年？

I certainly think we create more momentum with new products in general than in the industry cycle so a new product cycle is very good for us. And I think that in this case, there are 2 things. One, there is a large scale adoption of, in this case, our Gen 4, but not just that we brought out the GEN 5 but also in metrology we have products that were meeting the need. So I'd say that our market share position continues to be very strong. We are investing very heavily in new capability to bring it on. But the other thing we've done in response to the demand in China, we've actually restarted some of our product lines that are suited, well-suited for that market, because we believe market share in China is critical going forward. The other thing that's going on there, and you may be well familiar is one of the big challenges a lot of our customers have there is talent and engineering talent. So one of the other ways we can help us with the worldwide apps presence and the ability to support them as they ramp, not only do they benefit but we benefit from strong share as well.

我當然認為，我們透過新產品創造的動力總體上比產業週期更大，因此新產品週期對我們來說非常有利。我認為在這種情況下，有兩件事。首先，在這種情況下，我們的 Gen 4 得到了大規模採用，但不僅僅是我們推出了 GEN 5，而且在計量方面，我們也有滿足需求的產品。所以我想說我們的市佔率地位仍然非常強勁。我們正在大力投資實現這一目標的新功能。但為了滿足中國的需求，我們所做的另一件事是，我們實際上已經重新啟動了一些適合該市場的產品線，因為我們相信，在中國的市場份額對於未來至關重要。那裡發生的另一件事，你們可能很熟悉，那就是我們的許多客戶面臨的一大挑戰是人才和工程人才。因此，我們可以幫助我們在全球範圍內推廣應用程式並在其發展過程中為其提供支援的另一種方式是，不僅他們受益，而且我們也受益於強大的市場份額。

Your next question comes from the line of Jagadish Iyer from Summit Redstone.

您的下一個問題來自 Summit Redstone 的 Jagadish Iyer。

Two questions, Rick. First, on the 10-nanometer and the 7-nanometer, I was just wondering how should we think of growth between the wafer inspection and metrology? We have new materials being added and new dimensions with the FinFETs and things like that. So I just wanted to get your perspective on the growth between wafer inspection and metrology. Then I have a follow-up.

有兩個問題，里克。首先，關於 10 奈米和 7 奈米，我只是想知道我們應該如何看待晶圓檢測和計量之間的成長？我們添加了新材料，並透過 FinFET 等增加了新尺寸。所以我只是想了解您對晶圓檢測和計量之間發展的看法。然後我有一個後續問題。

Sure. Yes, I think the way I think about it is the wafer inspection is really driving more capability in terms of -- if you think about smaller defects and the actual scaling is happening going to 7. So not only do they need more capable tools but they have to run them at higher resolutions, which drives the utilization in a way that they need more capacity. Metrology, there are more layers, especially with multi-patterning. So what you end up with is more capacity buys in addition to increased technology. So on a percentage basis, both are growing, slightly different drivers between the 2, though.

當然。是的，我認為晶圓偵測確實在推動更多能力——如果你考慮更小的缺陷，實際的縮放將達到 7。因此，他們不僅需要更強大的工具，而且還必須以更高的解析度運行它們，這將推動利用率，從而需要更多容量。計量學有更多層，尤其是多重圖案化。因此，除了技術進步之外，您最終還會購買更多的容量。因此，從百分比來看，兩者都在增長，但兩者的驅動因素略有不同。

Okay. Fair enough. I just wanted a second question as a follow-up is I wanted to understand your momentum on your Gen 5 tool. And how should we think about the ramp in calendar '17 versus calendar '16? And is there a possibility of seeding Gen 5 into memory at some point?

好的。很公平。我只是想問第二個問題，作為後續問題，我想了解您對 Gen 5 工具的動力。我們該如何看待 2017 年曆與 2016 年曆的成長？是否有可能在某個時候將第 5 代植入記憶體中？

Yes. Gen 5 is pretty much doing what we thought it would do. And like any new product introduction, not necessarily exactly in the places because it's kind of had different adoption in different locations. But we broadened our penetration. And Gen 5 is now at both memory and foundry and logic facilities. And we're seeing we've got multiple orders now in both foundry but also what we're seeing in memory. So we feel pretty good about our penetration. We're on the plan that we laid out when we introduced the product in terms of our 2016 objectives. Bren can talk to the details of that. And then we hope to be entering, through 2017, entering 2018 with a lot of momentum.

是的。Gen 5 基本上實現了我們預期的功能。和任何新產品的推出一樣，並不一定在完全相同的地方推出，因為它在不同的地方有不同的採用。但我們擴大了滲透範圍。現在，第五代產品已在記憶體、代工廠和邏輯工廠投入使用。我們看到，現在我們在代工廠和內存方面都獲得了多個訂單。因此，我們對我們的滲透率感到非常滿意。我們正在按照推出產品時所製定的 2016 年目標計畫進行。布倫可以談談細節。然後，我們希望能夠以強勁的勢頭度過 2017 年，進入 2018 年。

Yes, I think as Rick said, it's going pretty much according to plan. We revenued 4 tools in 2016, and our plan is to revenue 8 to 10 tools in 2017. To Rick's point, they're seeded all over, in multiple customers, so across all the segments. The other dynamic is driving Gen 5 besides the discovery opportunities, where we compete more directly with [EV] capabilities is that you're also seeing it deployed in EUV development situations too. Because it's used as a tool for radical verification when you print wafers and use the wafer results to calibrate pattern fidelity on the wafer -- or on the reticle. So there's an additional use case there that we're encouraged by, and we're in line with our plans. And I think by the end of calendar year '17, we should have somewhere between, I don't know, 15 and 18 tools or so in the field fully installed. So we'll see how many we actually end up with revenue beyond the plan I told you but there's -- they're out there and getting deployed and demonstrating value.

是的，我認為正如里克所說，一切都按照計劃進行。我們在 2016 年銷售了 4 款工具，我們計劃在 2017 年銷售 8 到 10 款工具。正如 Rick 所說，他們的業務遍布各地，涵蓋多個客戶，也就是所有細分市場。除了發現機會之外，另一個推動 Gen 5 發展的動力是，我們與 [EV] 能力進行更直接的競爭，您還會看到它也部署在 EUV 開發環境中。因為當您列印晶圓時，它被用作徹底驗證的工具，並使用晶圓結果來校準晶圓或光罩上的圖案保真度。因此，有一個額外的用例讓我們感到鼓舞，並且符合我們的計劃。我認為，到 2017 年底，我們應該會在現場完全安裝大約 15 到 18 種工具。因此，我們將看看最終實際收入有多少超出了我告訴你的計劃，但它們已經存在並且被部署並展示價值。

Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的阿蒂夫馬利克 (Atif Malik)。

Rick, in your prepared remarks, you talked about gaining share and seeing strength in unpatterned wafer inspection last year. What drove that strength in terms of end markets? Was it just the volume of wafers being kind of cranked out in 3D NAND? Or which end market that drove that strength? And then I have a follow-up.

里克，在你準備好的發言中，你談到了去年在無圖案晶圓檢測方面獲得的份額和看到的實力。是什麼推動了終端市場的強勁成長？這僅僅是 3D NAND 晶圓產量的問題嗎？或者哪個終端市場推動了這種實力？然後我有一個後續問題。

Well, unpatterned really does benefit from 3D NAND. So we definitely see demand coming from 3D NAND. And we also see it just in general multi-pattern and there are more layers. And customers have long realized that monitor wafers can be a very efficient way to clean and maintain and come up from downtime on tools to reverify their processes. So that's really it. Plus, we saw, as Bren said, we think the momentum continues based on some of the work we're seeing in the wafer manufacturers which are part of what was driving our March results. So we think that continues to be strong for us.

嗯，無圖案確實受益於 3D NAND。因此我們確實看到了來自 3D NAND 的需求。我們也看到它具有普遍的多模式，並且有更多層。客戶早就意識到，監控晶圓是一種非常有效的清潔和維護方法，並且可以在工具停機後重新驗證其製程。事實就是這樣。此外，正如布倫所說，我們認為這種勢頭將繼續下去，這基於我們在晶圓製造商中看到的一些工作，這也是推動我們三月業績的部分因素。因此我們認為這對我們來說仍然很強大。

Okay. And then on China, the investors community is still kind of skeptical on the Chinese projects. There obviously are 10-plus of these and then 5 or 6 more active ones. But overall when you look at these projects, do you think China has the expertise or the engineering talent to build and run these fabs? Or are we going to be seeing -- are we going to build these fabs and just kind of learn through experience and then kind of stumble or [go towards] low-end products? I just want to get your sense of how ready China is to build fabs and then run them.

好的。再說到中國，投資者群體對中國項目仍然持懷疑態度。顯然有 10 多個這樣的，還有 5 或 6 個活躍的。但整體來看這些項目，您認為中國是否擁有建造和營運這些晶圓廠的專業知識或工程人才？或者我們會看到——我們是否要建造這些晶圓廠，只是透過經驗來學習，然後跌跌撞撞地走向低端產品？我只是想了解中國在建設和運營晶圓廠方面的準備程度。

It's a great question. I -- let's start with there's certainly a significant investment and I've been in this industry a long time, and I would say I've heard this before out of China but we're seeing a lot more evidence now of actual commitment. There's also leadership has been put in place from other areas, so you have experienced leaders now running a lot of these companies that have demonstrated their ability to run successful organizations in other parts of the world. So I think you have that. The biggest gap probably ends up being the engineering workforce to be able to execute. And I think in that case, what we're seeing is a lot of these ambitious projects are also coming with the requests for support from equipment companies, and so we're definitely feeling that and are participating. We are relatively cautious, too, and if you take our plans, we don't bake in everything that we hear that's said in China in terms of how we run the business. But we're also positioned to be able to support it, should it ramp. And I think the most significant part of that expansion to WFE is not in 2017 or 2018. It's actually toward the end of '18, '19. And so I think it's still early. Right now, we feel very good about the prospects for '17 and the early 2018 numbers look very doable from our standpoint.

這是一個很好的問題。首先，這肯定是一項重大投資，而且我在這個行業已經工作了很長時間，我想說我以前在中國聽說過這種事，但現在我們看到了更多實際承諾的證據。其他地區也已經培養了許多領導人，因此現在許多公司都由經驗豐富的領導者管理，他們已經證明了自己有能力在世界其他地區成功管理組織。所以我認為你已經擁有它了。最大的差距可能在於工程人員的執行能力。我認為在這種情況下，我們看到許多雄心勃勃的專案也伴隨著設備公司的支援請求，所以我們肯定感受到了這一點並正在參與其中。我們也相對謹慎，如果你接受我們的計劃，我們不會把在中國聽到的所有關於我們如何經營業務的說法都納入其中。但如果它擴大規模，我們也能提供支援。我認為 WFE 擴張最重要的部分不是在 2017 年或 2018 年。其實是在 18、19 年底。所以我認為現在還為時過早。目前，我們對 2017 年的前景非常樂觀，從我們的角度來看，2018 年初的數據看起來非常可行。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho from Stifel, Nicolaus.

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho，Nicolaus。

You answered this a little bit when you talked about the Gen 5 product and some of the applications that you're getting adoption for that product. But given the continued success of the GEN 4, is that slowing any of the, I guess, the product momentum for Gen 5 and that adoption given that the GEN 4 is still I guess a workhorse tool for even these next-generation nodes?

當您談到第五代產品以及該產品所採用的一些應用程式時，您已經回答了這個問題。但考慮到 GEN 4 的持續成功，我猜這是否會減緩 Gen 5 的產品動能和採用速度，因為我認為 GEN 4 仍然是這些新一代節點的主力工具？

Not really. I mean I think that, that goes to 2 things. One is our customers have always sought the lowest-cost solution for the solving the inspection problems. So if we had not expanded the GEN 4, then maybe that would be the case. But the Gen 5 in its development isn't yet at a point where it could have offloaded those inspections. Whenever we do introduce a new -- a whole new technology platform, we almost are forced to reduce the functionality of it on introduction, which is the case here. So it has capability but it doesn't have the same breadth of capability that a GEN 4 will have. That will happen over time and as that does, the Gen 5 will take more and more of the layers as we go forward.

並不真地。我的意思是，我認為這與兩件事有關。一是我們的客戶始終尋求以最低成本解決檢測問題的解決方案。因此，如果我們沒有擴展 GEN 4，那麼也許就會出現這種情況。但第五代導彈的研發進度尚未達到可以卸載這些檢查的程度。每當我們推出一個全新的技術平台時，我們幾乎都被迫在推出時減少它的功能，這裡就是這種情況。因此它有能力，但不具備 GEN 4 所擁有的能力廣度。這將隨著時間的推移而發生，隨著我們的前進，第五代技術將佔據越來越多的層級。

Great. And as a follow-up question, given your strong exposure to the foundry segment, today we're seeing the second-tier foundries building out there 28-nanometer capabilities. How much of, I guess, your expertise in that node given that you've helped the other leading players ramp-up on that years ago, how much are you helping out those second-tier players, and how is that helping provide potential incremental business or even services opportunities with these second-tier foundries that are trying to get ramped up?

偉大的。作為後續問題，鑑於您在代工領域的強大影響力，今天我們看到二線代工廠正在建造 28 奈米產能。考慮到您多年前幫助其他領先企業在該節點上發展，我想您在該節點上的專業知識有多少，您對那些二線企業有多少幫助？這對那些試圖發展的二線代工廠提供潛在的增量業務甚至服務機會有何幫助？

Well, we definitely have a close partnership with many players across the board on, say, 28. And I do think we support them as best we can. We don't really make money on services from that. What we do is we support them with tool sales. Our market share tends to be pretty good. And we're committed to doing what -- helping them with best practices in terms of ramping their facilities. These are very capable people but they do often appreciate the support. The other thing I'd mention is in some cases, we actually restarted some of the older products to be able to support them with exactly the capabilities that they need. So we're not selling the latest generation in general into those facilities. We'll sell a mix, some new and some of the, maybe, GEN 3 kind of product line.

嗯，我們確實與許多球員建立了密切的合作關係，例如 28 號球員。我確實認為我們會盡力支持他們。我們實際上並沒有從這些服務中賺到錢。我們所做的就是透過工具銷售為他們提供支援。我們的市佔率往往相當不錯。我們致力於幫助他們在擴大設施方面採用最佳實踐。這些人非常有能力，但他們也常常感激得到支持。我想提到的另一件事是，在某些情況下，我們實際上重新啟動了一些舊產品，以便能夠為它們提供所需的功能。因此，我們通常不會向這些工廠銷售最新一代產品。我們將銷售混合產品，有些是新產品，有些可能是第三代產品線。

Market share, just the only thing I'll add is, market share tends to be stronger with those customers. And so what comes with that is, to Rick's point, the need for some additional support as we work through it. So we have applications, engineers and fabs all around the world, and they get deployed in these opportunities. We think we benefit pretty well from the market position we have on the tools, and these folks help the customers get value out of the tools.

市場份額，我只想補充一點，擁有這些客戶的市場份額往往會更高。正如 Rick 所說，在我們解決這個問題的過程中，我們需要一些額外的支持。因此，我們在世界各地都有應用程式、工程師和晶圓廠，他們會利用這些機會進行部署。我們認為，我們從工具的市場地位中獲益良多，這些人幫助客戶從工具中獲得價值。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Ed Lockwood, I'll turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。艾德洛克伍德先生，我把電話轉回給您。

Okay. Thank you, Christine. And thank you all for joining us here on our call today. Just a reminder, an audio replay of today's call will be available on our website later on this afternoon. And once again, we appreciate your interest in KLA-Tencor. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯汀。感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。提醒一下，今天下午晚些時候我們將在我們的網站上提供今天電話會議的音訊回放。我們再次感謝您對 KLA-Tencor 的關注。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。