科磊 (KLAC) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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（技術難度）

operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the fourth quarter fiscal year 2017 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. Mr. Ed Lockwood with KLA-Tencor Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

今天的操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加2017財年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謝謝。KLA-Tencor 投資者關係部門的 Ed Lockwood 先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Christine. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our conference call. Joining me on our call today are Rick Wallace, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer. We're here today to discuss quarterly results for the period ended June 30, 2017. We released these results this afternoon at 1:15 Pacific Time. If you haven't seen the release, you can find it on our website at www.kla-tencor.com. A simulcast of this call will be accessible on demand following its completion on the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。大家下午好，歡迎參加我們的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Rick Wallace；以及我們的財務長 Bren Higgins。今天我們在這裡討論截至 2017 年 6 月 30 日的季度業績。我們於今天下午太平洋時間 1:15 公佈了這些結果。如果您還沒有看到新聞稿，您可以在我們的網站 www.kla-tencor.com 上找到它。本次電話會議結束後，可透過我們網站的「投資者關係」部分按需觀看同步直播。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release and in the investor presentation on KLA-Tencor's investor relations website. There, you'll also find a calendar of future investor events, presentations and conferences as well as links to KLA-Tencor's SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2016. In those filings, you'll find descriptions of risk factors that could impact our future results.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務業績的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現。在今天的收益新聞稿和 KLA-Tencor 投資者關係網站上的投資者介紹中可以找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的詳細對帳。您還可以在這裡找到未來投資者活動、演示和會議的日曆以及 KLA-Tencor 的 SEC 文件的鏈接，包括我們截至 2016 年 6 月 30 日的 10-K 表年度報告。在這些文件中，您會發現可能影響我們未來結果的風險因素的描述。

As you know, our future results are subject to risks. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on the call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA-Tencor cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements.

如您所知，我們的未來業績面臨風險。任何前瞻性陳述，包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述，都受這些風險的影響，而 KLA-Tencor 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述會成真。我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有很大差異。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給里克。

Thanks, Ed. We're very pleased to report that June marked yet another exceptional quarter for KLA-Tencor, with shipments, revenue and earnings per share each finishing at or above the range of guidance. New orders exceeded the $1 billion mark for the second time in the past 3 quarters. Shipments were a record $971 million, and we ended June with backlog of $1.8 billion, which was also an all-time high level for the company. These numbers were once again driven by KLA-Tencor's ongoing market leadership and strong execution of our strategic objectives and are also reflective of the broad strength of today's overall WFE industry environment.

謝謝，艾德。我們非常高興地報告，6 月對 KLA-Tencor 來說又是一個非凡的季度，出貨量、收入和每股盈餘都達到或超過了預期範圍。新訂單在過去三個季度中第二次突破10億美元大關。出貨量達到創紀錄的 9.71 億美元，6 月底的積壓訂單量達到 18 億美元，也是該公司的歷史最高水準。這些數字再次受到 KLA-Tencor 持續的市場領導地位和我們策略目標的有力執行的推動，也反映了當今整體 WFE 產業環境的廣泛實力。

One factor that may not be evident in the recorded numbers, but which is key to our positive outlook for continued strength in the overall demand environment, is the growing momentum in orders we've experienced in the first half of calendar 2017. In fact, since January, we have adjusted K-T's internal order forecast for CY '17 to the upside by almost 20%, reflecting strengthening customer demand driven by new products across each of our end markets and leading to another excellent year of growth for the company in 2017, while setting the stage for continued momentum into 2018.

有一個因素可能在記錄的數字中並不明顯，但卻是我們對整體需求環境持續強勁的樂觀展望的關鍵，那就是我們在 2017 年上半年經歷的訂單增長勢頭。事實上，自 1 月以來，我們已將 K-T 公司 2017 年日曆年的內部訂單預測上調了近 20%，這反映出我們各個終端市場的新產品推動了客戶需求的增強，並使公司在 2017 年再次實現出色的增長，同時也為 2018 年的持續增長奠定了基礎。

Judging by the positive announcements recently of overall industry growth projections provided by our peers and other market participants, the strength KLA has experienced today is also broad based, which bodes well for the industry as we move ahead in the year.

從我們的同行和其他市場參與者最近發布的關於整體行業成長預測的積極公告來看，KLA 今天所經歷的強勁勢頭也是廣泛的，這對我們今年行業的發展是一個好兆頭。

Turning now to a discussion of some of the key areas of near-term focus for the company as we execute our growth strategies.

現在來討論我們在執行成長策略時公司近期關注的一些關鍵領域。

As a market leader in process control, K-T plays an enabling role in driving our customers' growth strategies and long-term success. We do this by investing at a high level to drive innovation in process control and supply our customers with the advanced inspection metrology products and services that they require to advance their device technology road maps and also resulting in expansion of the serve market opportunity for KLA-Tencor in the most critical applications in process control.

作為過程控制領域的市場領導者，K-T 在推動客戶的成長策略和長期成功方面發揮推動作用。我們透過高水準投資來推動製程控制創新，並向我們的客戶提供他們所需的先進檢測計量產品和服務，以推進他們的設備技術路線圖，同時也擴大 KLA-Tencor 在製程控制最關鍵應用領域的服務市場機會。

Along with the ongoing focus on investment and innovation, we're also continuously executing our strategies for operational excellence and converting our growth and market leadership into industry-leading margins and cash flow, providing the fuel for future investment and resources for the ongoing strong cash returns to stockholders.

除了持續專注於投資和創新之外，我們還持續執行卓越營運策略，將我們的成長和市場領導地位轉化為領先業界的利潤率和現金流，為未來的投資提供動力，並為股東持續強勁的現金回報提供資源。

Drilling down a bit on the factors that are driving KLA-Tencor's performance, I'll focus on 3 key drivers of our growth. First, expansion of the serve market opportunity in memory, driven by new products. Today, we are developing 5 new technology platforms, 2 of which are targeted specifically at memory. And we're expecting higher process control adoption and record revenue from memory customers in CY '17. Growth from memory customers is already contributing to the record business levels we're experiencing in our bare wafer inspection and metrology markets, and we expect revenue from memory customers to continue to grow with the market.

深入探討推動 KLA-Tencor 績效的因素，我將專注於我們成長的 3 個關鍵驅動因素。首先，在新產品的推動下，記憶體服務市場機會不斷擴大。今天，我們正在開發5個新的技術平台，其中2個專門針對記憶體。我們預計 2017 年記憶體客戶的製程控制採用率將更高，營收也將創歷史新高。來自記憶體客戶的成長已經為我們在裸晶圓檢測和計量市場中經歷的創紀錄的業務水平做出了貢獻，我們預計來自記憶體客戶的收入將繼續隨著市場的成長而成長。

Second, growth in China, which is seen by many as the next major new market inflection for WFE. We believe China could represent a generational opportunity in terms of investment and growth for our industry. Business levels in China for KLA-Tencor are expected to more than double in CY '17. China represents a tremendous growth opportunity for KLA-Tencor and for process control, as our customers in this region are adopting process control at a high level to speed yield learning in their development efforts and accelerate market entry.

第二，中國的成長，很多人認為這是WFE的下一個重要新市場轉折點。我們相信，中國可以為我們的產業帶來投資和成長的一代機會。預計 2017 年 KLA-Tencor 在中國的業務水準將成長一倍以上。中國對於 KLA-Tencor 和製程控製而言是一個巨大的成長機會，因為我們在該地區的客戶正在高水準採用製程控制，以加快其開發工作中的良率學習並加速市場進入。

And finally, services. Growth in the service business is historically driven by the expansion of our installed base of systems in the field. And this represents an annuity growth model to complement our systems business. Services growth is also driven by expanding investment in the trailing edge. This is resulting in legacy node fabs running at full utilization and putting pressure on the equipment base to service, refurbish, remanufacture and upgrade process control systems as our customers continue to derive value from these assets.

最後是服務。從歷史上看，服務業務的成長是由我們在該領域安裝的系統基礎的擴展所推動的。這代表了一種年金成長模式，可以補充我們的系統業務。服務業的成長也受到後緣投資擴張的推動。這導致傳統節點晶圓廠滿載運轉，並對設備基地施加壓力，要求其維修、翻新、再製造和升級製程控制系統，因為我們的客戶繼續從這些資產中獲得價值。

Quarterly service revenue topped $200 million for the first time in the June quarter, and we're modeling an annual revenue growth rate of 7% to 9% in services for the foreseeable future.

6 月季度服務收入首次突破 2 億美元，我們預計可預見的未來服務業務的年收入成長率將達到 7% 至 9%。

To sum up today's results before I turn the call over to Bren, June was another record-setting quarter for KLA-Tencor, demonstrating the company is executing well and the strong industry environment. Given our backlog and with the momentum we are experiencing in the marketplace, 2017 is shaping up to be an outstanding year for us. We're delivering a steady cadence of leading products, expanding our serve market and delivering strong profitability and cash flows. We're growing our revenue with memory customers, and we expect to see very strong growth in China, as customers view process control as a competitive advantage in their market growth strategy, and they look to KLA-Tencor as the market leader and partner.

在我將電話轉給布倫之前，我先總結一下今天的業績，6 月份是 KLA-Tencor 又一個創紀錄的季度，表明公司表現良好且行業環境強勁。考慮到我們的積壓訂單以及我們在市場上所經歷的勢頭，2017 年對我們來說將是傑出的一年。我們正穩步推出領先產品，擴大我們的服務市場，並實現強勁的獲利能力和現金流。我們透過記憶體客戶實現了營收成長，我們預計中國市場將出現非常強勁的成長，因為客戶將製程控制視為其市場成長策略中的競爭優勢，並將 KLA-Tencor 視為市場領導者和合作夥伴。

I'll now turn the call over to Bren for his comments. Bren?

現在我將電話轉給布倫，請他發表評論。布倫？

Thanks, Rick. And good afternoon, everyone. As Rick highlighted in his opening remarks, the June quarter represented another outstanding period of financial performance and operational execution for KLA-Tencor. Shipments were a record $971 million, finishing above the range of guidance. And revenue and GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share each finished above the midpoint of the range of guidance in the quarter. This result was driven by strong demand across our product portfolio as well as solid execution in cost management in our engineering, manufacturing and service operations.

謝謝，里克。大家下午好。正如 Rick 在開場白中所強調的那樣，6 月季度是 KLA-Tencor 財務業績和營運執行的另一個出色時期。出貨量達到創紀錄的 9.71 億美元，超出預期範圍。本季度，營收、GAAP 和非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益均高於預期範圍的中點。這一結果得益於我們產品組合的強勁需求以及工程、製造和服務營運中成本管理的穩健執行。

Revenue was $939 million in the June quarter. GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.62 in the quarter, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.64. In our press release, you will find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. With the exception of when I explicitly refer to GAAP results, my commentary will be focused on the non-GAAP results, which exclude the adjustments covered in the press release.

六月當季收入為 9.39 億美元。本季 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 1.62 美元，非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 1.64 美元。在我們的新聞稿中，您將看到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘的對帳。除明確提及 GAAP 結果外，我的評論將集中於非 GAAP 結果，其中不包括新聞稿中涵蓋的調整。

Now turning to highlights of the June quarter demand environment. Although we have discontinued guiding quarterly orders, beginning this quarter we will begin to offer greater detail on our shipment results and guidance to provide more information and color on the current business environment to give investors insight into industry trends and KLA-Tencor's performance. For historical shipments mix data, please refer to the supplemental information posted with today's press release on our website. So as a reminder, the following details are related to shipments. Total shipments in the June quarter were a record $971 million, up 7% on a sequential basis and finishing above the guidance range. Foundry was 64% of shipments in June, driven by an anticipated broadening of the customer base for investment in 10-nanometer production and 7-nanometer development and by continued investment in legacy technology nodes. We are currently modeling foundry shipments to be approximately 42% of the total in the September quarter. Memory was 32% of shipments, with delivery evenly split between DRAM and NAND. We are currently modeling shipments to memory customers to be about 43% of the total in the September quarter, with NAND representing about half of the memory mix. Logic was 4% of shipments in June and is currently forecasted to be approximately 15% of the September quarter total.

現在來談談六月季度需求環境的亮點。雖然我們已停止提供季度訂單指導，但從本季度開始，我們將開始提供更多關於出貨結果和指導的詳細信息，以提供有關當前商業環境的更多信息和色彩，讓投資者深入了解行業趨勢和 KLA-Tencor 的業績。有關歷史出貨量組合數據，請參閱我們網站上今天新聞稿中發布的補充資訊。因此提醒一下，以下詳細資訊與貨運有關。6 月當季總出貨量達到創紀錄的 9.71 億美元，季增 7%，高於預期範圍。6 月代工佔出貨量的 64%，這得益於對 10 奈米生產和 7 奈米開發的投資客戶群的預期擴大以及對傳統技術節點的持續投資。我們目前預計 9 月晶圓代工出貨量約佔總出貨量的 42%。記憶體佔出貨量的 32%，其中 DRAM 和 NAND 的出貨量均等。我們目前預計，9 月記憶體客戶的出貨量約佔總出貨量的 43%，其中 NAND 約佔記憶體組合的一半。邏輯晶片佔 6 月出貨量的 4%，目前預測佔 9 月季度總出貨量的 15% 左右。

In terms of the approximate distribution of shipments by product group. Wafer inspection was 50% of shipments. Patterning was 25%. Patterning includes orders from our reticle inspection business. Non-semi, which includes our back inspection business, was approximately 4%, and service was 21% of shipments.

就以產品組劃分的出貨量大致分佈而言。晶圓檢驗佔出貨量的50%。圖案化率為25%。圖案化包括來自我們的光罩檢測業務的訂單。非半導體（包括我們的背面檢驗業務）約佔出貨量的 4%，服務佔出貨量的 21%。

Looking forward, we are modeling September quarter shipments to be in the range of $945 million to $1.025 billion. Current build plans are supporting quarterly shipment levels of $900 million to $1 billion, and we expect this trend to continue into calendar year 2018. This outlook has strengthened since the earnings call back in January, consistent with the upside in orders we've experienced year-to-date. In fact, compared to the outlook we provided back at our earnings call in April, the CY '17 order forecast is over $225 million higher than 3 months ago. And shipments for the second half of calendar year 2017 are expected to be up mid-single digits compared with the first half, inclusive of the stronger-than-guided performance in the June quarter.

展望未來，我們預計 9 月季度的出貨量將在 9.45 億美元至 10.25 億美元之間。目前的生產計畫支持季度出貨量達到 9 億至 10 億美元，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到 2018 年。自從一月份收益電話會議以來，這種前景已經得到加強，與我們今年迄今為止經歷的訂單上升趨勢一致。事實上，與我們在 4 月收益電話會議上提出的展望相比，2017 年訂單預測比 3 個月前高出 2.25 億美元。預計 2017 年下半年的出貨量將比上半年成長中個位數，其中 6 月季度的出貨量強於預期。

Turning now to the income statement. Revenue was $939 million in June, finishing at the upper end of the range of guidance. We expect revenue to be in the range of $910 million to $970 million in the September quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was 63%, in line with expectations for the quarter. The strong gross margin performance in June is consistent with recent margin trends in terms of mix of product business and operating leverage in our manufacturing and service operations.

現在來看損益表。6 月營收為 9.39 億美元，達到預期範圍的上限。我們預計 9 月季度的營收將在 9.1 億美元至 9.7 億美元之間。非公認會計準則毛利率為 63%，符合本季預期。6 月強勁的毛利率表現與我們製造和服務業務的產品業務組合和營運槓桿的近期利潤趨勢一致。

Looking forward to the September quarter, we expect gross margin to be in the range of 62.5% to 63.5%, flat at the midpoint compared with June, as we expect a similar mix of product revenue, with slightly higher manufacturing costs, offset by an improved service mix quarter-to-quarter.

展望9月份季度，我們預計毛利率將在62.5%至63.5%之間，與6月份中點持平，因為我們預計產品收入組合類似，製造成本略高，但服務組合環比改善將抵消這一影響。

Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $238 million in June, and non-GAAP operating margin was 37.6%. This operating margin result is in line with the updated target model for annual revenue levels in the $3.6 billion to $3.9 billion range, as we outlined earlier in this quarter. We are modeling operating expense levels to be approximately $250 million in the September quarter due to increasing R&D headcount and prototype material expense for current programs as well as approximately $2 million to $3 million of incremental operating expense associated with the acquisition of Zeta Instruments, a privately held company that designs and manufactures optical profilers and defect inspection systems for the advanced wafer packaging, LED and data storage industries. We completed this small transaction in early June.

6 月非公認會計準則營業費用總額為 2.38 億美元，非公認會計準則營業利益率為 37.6%。這項營業利潤率結果符合我們在本季早些時候概述的 36 億美元至 39 億美元範圍內的年收入水準更新目標模型。我們預計 9 月季度的營運費用水準約為 2.5 億美元，原因是研發人員數量和當前專案的原型材料費用增加，以及收購 Zeta Instruments 帶來的約 200 萬至 300 萬美元的增量營運費用，Zeta Instruments 是一家為先進晶圓封裝、LED 和資料儲存行業設計和製造輪廓和設備製造輪廓公司和缺陷系統的私人控股公司。我們在六月初完成了這筆小交易。

Our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 21% in the quarter, just below our long-term planning rate of 22%, reflecting the higher mix of revenue from products developed or manufactured offshore and other discrete items impacting the tax rate.

本季我們的非公認會計準則有效稅率為 21%，略低於我們的長期計畫稅率 22%，這反映了來自海外開發或製造的產品以及其他影響稅率的獨立項目的收入組合較高。

We are modeling the September quarterly tax rate at 20% due to a nonrecurring tax benefit expected in the quarter. However, you should continue to model a long-term tax rate of 22% going forward.

由於預計本季將出現非經常性稅收優惠，我們將 9 月季度稅率定為 20%。但是，您應該繼續模擬未來 22% 的長期稅率。

Finally, non-GAAP net income for the June quarter was $259 million, and we ended the quarter with 158 million diluted shares outstanding. I'll turn now to the highlights on the balance sheet and our cash flow statement.

最後，6 月季度的非 GAAP 淨收入為 2.59 億美元，本季結束時我們擁有 1.58 億股稀釋流通股。現在我將討論資產負債表和現金流量表的重點。

Cash and investments ended the quarter at $3 billion, an increase of $313 million compared with the March quarter. Cash from operations was a record $463 million in June, and free cash flow was $452 million. As mentioned earlier, we completed the acquisition of Zeta Instruments in the June quarter. Total purchase consideration was approximately $37 million, including cash paid of almost $32 million at closing.

本季末，現金和投資為 30 億美元，與 3 月季度相比增加了 3.13 億美元。6 月經營現金流達到創紀錄的 4.63 億美元，自由現金流達 4.52 億美元。如前所述，我們在六月季度完成了 Zeta Instruments 的收購。總收購價約為 3,700 萬美元，其中包括交易結束時支付的近 3,200 萬美元現金。

And finally, during the quarter, we paid an aggregate of $85 million in regular quarterly dividends and dividend equivalents for fully vested restricted stock units.

最後，在本季度，我們為完全歸屬的限制性股票單位支付了總計 8,500 萬美元的定期季度股息和股息等價物。

In conclusion, KLA-Tencor's results in June reflect our market leadership, the critical nature of process control in our customers' growth strategies at the leading edge and in legacy design rules and our industry-leading business model. This, fueled by a record total backlog of $1.8 billion as of the end of the June quarter, position the company for another year of growth in a strong and stable overall WFE industry environment. This performance demonstrates the company's market leadership, the strong customer acceptance of our portfolio of solutions addressing the most critical yield requirements of leading edge and our focus on operational execution across our business.

總之，KLA-Tencor 六月的業績反映了我們的市場領導地位、工藝控制在客戶前沿成長策略和傳統設計規則中的關鍵性以及我們領先業界的商業模式。截至 6 月底，該公司累計訂單量達到創紀錄的 18 億美元，為該公司在強勁而穩定的整體 WFE 行業環境中實現又一年的成長奠定了基礎。這一業績證明了公司的市場領導地位、客戶對我們滿足前沿最關鍵產量要求的解決方案組合的強烈接受度以及我們對整個業務運營執行的關注。

With that, our guidance for the September quarter is shipments in the range of $945 million to $1.025 billion, revenue between $910 million and $970 million and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.48 to $1.72 per share as well as non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.50 to $1.74 per share. This September quarter EPS guidance range assumes a 20% tax rate in the quarter.

因此，我們對 9 月當季的預期是：出貨量在 9.45 億美元至 10.25 億美元之間，營收在 9.1 億美元至 9.7 億美元之間，GAAP 稀釋每股收益在 1.48 美元至 1.72 美元之間，非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益在 1.74 美元之間。本季 9 月每股收益指引範圍假設本季稅率為 20%。

This concludes my remarks. I will now turn the call back over to Ed to begin the Q&A.

我的發言到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給 Ed，開始問答環節。

Okay. Thank you, Bren. At this point, we'd like to open up the call to the questions.

好的。謝謝你，布倫。現在，我們想開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

All right. Christine, we are ready for the first question.

好的。克里斯汀，我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Farhan Ahmad from Credit Suisse.

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。

My first question is regarding EUV and what trends you are seeing in the business there. ASML recently talked about potentially using single lithography edge, which I would assume would require a lot of inspection as well because there is no pattern inspection. So maybe the need for the wafer inspection is at a higher level. So maybe can you just talk about EUV trends that you are seeing in the business.

我的第一個問題是關於 EUV 以及您在那裡看到的業務趨勢。ASML 最近談到了使用單光刻邊緣的可能性，我認為這也需要大量檢查，因為沒有圖案檢查。因此，對晶圓檢測的需求可能處於更高的水平。那麼，您能否談談您在業務中看到的 EUV 趨勢？

Yes. Farhan, it's Rick. Thanks for the question. We do see a lot of work around EUV still from our customers working in the pilot phase and the technology development phase but a lot of work whether it's in reticle qual, which is still something that there's a lot of challenges getting defect-free reticles, and then in terms of lithography qualifications when they're testing out the litho cell. But as you know, we're ways off from production, so it's pretty hard to anticipate exactly what the production use cases are going to be. But we've certainly seen an increase amount of interest in our customers and kind of continuing our belief that we'll see HBM by 2019 and 2020.

是的。法爾漢，我是瑞克。謝謝你的提問。我們確實看到我們的客戶在 EUV 方面仍在進行大量工作，這些工作仍處於試驗階段和技術開發階段，但無論是在光罩質量方面，還是在獲得無缺陷光罩方面仍然存在很多挑戰，然後在他們測試光刻單元時進行光刻鑑定方面，還有很多工作要做。但正如您所知，我們距離生產還有很長的路要走，因此很難準確預測生產用例將會是什麼。但我們確實看到客戶的興趣日益增加，我們仍然相信我們將在 2019 年和 2020 年看到 HBM。

Got it. Rick, you mentioned that you guys are working on 5 new platforms and 2 of them specific to memory. How should we be thinking about the ramp of these products? And are any of these products something that will affect the revenues in 2018?

知道了。瑞克，你提到你們正在開發 5 個新平台，其中 2 個專門用於記憶體。我們應該如何考慮這些產品的成長？這些產品會影響 2018 年的營收嗎？

2018, probably by the mid, later part of calendar year, we'll see some impact. I think -- we've talked before about the overall increase in memory intensity. And I think if we look out, we're modeling about a 200 basis point increase in the intensity as we ramp these new products over the next couple of years. We'll already have a record for memory in calendar '17, and we continue to see strength as we go forward.

2018 年，可能到年中或年末，我們會看到一些影響。我認為——我們之前已經討論過記憶強度的整體提高。我認為，如果我們留意的話，隨著我們在未來幾年推出這些新產品，我們預計強度將增加約 200 個基點。我們已經在 2017 年創造了記憶記錄，隨著我們繼續前進，我們將繼續看到力量。

Farhan, it's Bren. I think the only thing I would add to that is we're still waiting for these products and that contribution. But we have from a 3D NAND perspective, from planar NAND, we have seen intensity improve. If you think about the peripheral products around bare wafer inspection and metrology, where wafer flatness is really, really critical to advance layer development in 3D NAND, film measurement, CD measurement, laser scanning, opportunities around defect inspection, some of the bigger challenges are still out there that these platforms hopefully will address. But we're encouraged by what we're seeing so far. And as Rick said, it's a big part of our calendar '17 view.

法爾漢，我是布倫。我認為我唯一要補充的是，我們仍在等待這些產品和貢獻。但從 3D NAND 的角度來看，從平面 NAND 來看，我們已經看到強度有所提升。如果您考慮裸晶圓檢測和計量周圍的外圍產品，其中晶圓平整度對於 3D NAND 中的推進層開發、薄膜測量、CD 測量、雷射掃描、缺陷檢測周圍的機會來說真的非常關鍵，這些平台有望解決一些更大的挑戰。但目前所看到的情況令我們感到鼓舞。正如里克所說，這是我們 2017 年日曆視圖的重要組成部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

As it relates to the financial model, if I look at your free cash flow generation for the quarter, it was -- was it 400 -- what was -- was it $452 million in free cash flow for the quarter? Sorry, if I missed that number.

就財務模型而言，如果我看一下本季的自由現金流產生情況，它是 - 是 400 - 是多少 - 本季的自由現金流是 4.52 億美元嗎？抱歉，如果我忘了那個號碼。

Yes, that's correct. It was pretty high. I mean, as you know, free cash flow can be pretty lumpy. But the linearity of shipments enabled a record collection quarter, so that was a big part of it this quarter. So we're real pleased with it and...

是的，正確。它相當高。我的意思是，如你所知，自由現金流可能相當不穩定。但出貨量的線性使得本季的收貨量創下紀錄，所以這是本季的重要因素。所以我們對此非常滿意並且......

That's a 48% free cash flow margin. So maybe you can help us level set, Bren. So in an environment where you're sort of operating sort of 36% to 38% operating margins, how do we think about the free cash flow margins underlying that?

這是48%的自由現金流利潤率。所以也許你可以幫助我們設定水平，布倫。那麼，在你們的營業利潤率達到 36% 至 38% 的環境下，我們如何看待背後的自由現金流利潤率？

Well, it's a great question. And I think as our business has been so stable at these levels, we're not having to make significant investments in working capital. Obviously, we invested a lot in ramping inventory to prepare to be able to ship it, $900 million to $1 billion, where we are today. And so now you're seeing modest increases in inventory to support that activity. So then as a result of that, given our capital position and so on, we see a fair amount of the operating margin dropping through. So the way I think about it, I mean, when I look at calendar '17, I see free cash flow probably in excess of $1.1 billion, and we're talking about revenue levels of $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion if you take our guidance and expectations around the December quarter. So you're in the 30th percentile range is -- I think if I do the math quickly. So I think that's probably how we ought to think about it. I think if you see an inflection, obviously, we'll have to invest into that. But the resiliency of the model is pretty strong. The margin profile of the business is good. And I think that a lot of the trends that I've outlined around gross margin is, I think, are -- is fairly sustainable going forward. So we feel pretty good about the model moving forward and the cash flow generation that comes from it.

嗯，這是一個很好的問題。我認為，由於我們的業務在這些水平上一直非常穩定，我們不必在營運資金上進行大量投資。顯然，我們投入了大量資金來增加庫存，為發貨做好準備，目前的庫存為 9 億至 10 億美元。因此，現在您會看到庫存適度增加以支持該活動。因此，考慮到我們的資本狀況等，我們看到相當一部分營業利潤率下降。所以我認為，當我看 2017 年日曆時，我看到自由現金流可能超過 11 億美元，如果你按照我們對 12 月季度的指導和預期，我們談論的收入水平將是 36 億美元至 37 億美元。所以你處於 30% 百分位範圍內 - 我想如果我快速計算一下的話。所以我認為這可能是我們應該考慮的。我認為，如果你看到一個轉折點，顯然我們必須對此進行投資。但模型的彈性相當強。該業務的利潤狀況良好。我認為，我所概述的有關毛利率的許多趨勢在未來都是相當可持續的。因此，我們對該模式的發展以及由此產生的現金流感到非常滿意。

Yes. And then on China domestic memory. There are a number of programs that are going to start to put up either development lines or reproduction capabilities in 2018. You guys typically have a bit longer lead times. So I'm wondering if you're starting to see orders or at least tools showing up in your second half pipeline to support some of these early China-based memory programs. And as you've highlighted previously, China's spending intensity for process control in general tends to be a bit higher. And I'm just wondering, on these new memory programs are you seeing that sort of higher spending intensity level?

是的。然後談中國國內的記憶。有許多專案將於 2018 年開始建立開發線或複製能力。你們的交貨時間通常要長一些。所以我想知道您是否開始看到訂單或至少工具出現在您的下半年管道中，以支援一些早期的中國內存計劃。正如您之前強調的那樣，中國在過程控制方面的支出強度總體上趨於較高。我只是想知道，在這些新的記憶程式中，您是否看到了更高的支出強度等級？

Yes. Harlan, as we mentioned in the call, the orders, the new bookings for the quarter were very strong, driven in part by activity in China, as you say, in anticipation of having deliveries late calendar or maybe early in '18. So yes, we are seeing that and agree with your suggestion. Part of what we see overall in the strength of China going forward is broad participation across the board. And these projects are absolutely real, and they're backed with funding, and we're pretty excited about the opportunity there.

是的。哈蘭，正如我們在電話會議中提到的那樣，本季的訂單和新預訂量非常強勁，部分原因是受到中國業務活動的推動，正如您所說，預計交貨時間將在日曆年末或 2018 年初。是的，我們看到了這一點並同意您的建議。我們看到中國未來整體實力的一部分是全方位的廣泛參與。這些項目絕對是真實的，並且有資金支持，我們對其中的機會感到非常興奮。

Yes. Harlan, I think the only thing I'll add to that is, is that the first part of -- well, all of '16 and part of '17 was very foundry-centric. We thought most of the memory bookings we would start to see in calendar '18. One of the things that we've been encouraged by is the strength of what we've seen from an order perspective both in the June quarter but also what's in the funnel over the next couple of quarters. So those are -- there are tools that are slotted to ship early in 2018. So from a shipment and revenue perspective, they're into the next year. But as Rick said, those projects are clearly real and are moving quickly, and we're preparing to ship into that in the first part of next year.

是的。哈蘭，我想我唯一要補充的是，2016 年的第一部分以及 2017 年的部分時間都是以代工為中心的。我們認為大多數記憶預訂將在 2018 年日曆中開始看到。令我們感到鼓舞的事情之一是，從 6 月季度的訂單情況以及未來幾季的訂單情況來看，我們看到了強勁的成長勢頭。所以這些工具預計將於 2018 年初出貨。因此，從出貨量和收入的角度來看，他們已經進入了明年。但正如里克所說，這些項目顯然是真實的，並且進展迅速，我們正準備在明年上半年投入使用。

Your next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question. As you think about China and their emergence as a key spender here on equipment, historically, you guys typically see roughly half your revenues early on around R&D and then half as you start to ramp. Curious if that's how you see spending patterns there or might it be different?

我想，這是第一個問題。當你想到中國及其作為設備主要消費國的崛起​​時，從歷史上看，你們通常會看到早期大約一半的收入來自研發，而當你開始增加收入時，另一半的收入來自研發。好奇您是否認為那裡的消費模式是這樣的，或者可能會有所不同？

Well, I think that there's not as much R&D, first start with that. A lot of these are established processes. So I think we're seeing it maybe more pilot and then when you're talking about the ramp-up. So not quite the same profile as you would have in maybe a more established company. Most of these are ramping trailing edge or not leading technologies. So a little bit smoother, I think, from that regard but definitely front-end loading the metrology capability just to be able to ramp the equipment. So for sure, we're going to be one of the earlier ones to see it.

嗯，我認為研發工作不多，先從這一點開始。其中很多都是既定的流程。所以我認為，我們可能看到的是更多的試點，然後才是你所說的加速。因此，您的個人資料可能與您在更成熟的公司中的個人資料不太一樣。其中大多數都屬於後緣技術或非領先技術。因此，我認為從這個方面來說會更順利一些，但肯定需要前端加載計量能力才能提升設備的效能。因此，我們肯定會成為最早看到它的人之一。

And then, I guess, as they ramp, would you expect that ramp to be similar to what you see with nondomestic Chinese customers?

然後，我想，隨著他們的成長，您是否認為這種成長會與您在中國以外的客戶身上看到的情況相似？

Probably a little stronger, simply because the scale of these fabs tends to be smaller. And I think from the standpoint of -- on a relative basis, I think that you would see the concentration being higher. I mean, when our participation really slows is when you're talking some mega fabs that have gotten many, many years of experience. These fabs are newer, and they're greenfield, so -- the ones we're dealing with right now. So I wouldn't expect it to fall off the way it might have in a more traditional [mega fab] -- giga fab.

可能稍微強一點，只是因為這些晶圓廠的規模往往較小。我認為從相對的角度來看，你會看到集中度更高。我的意思是，當我們談論一些已經累積了很多年經驗的大型晶圓廠時，我們的參與度才會真正放緩。這些晶圓廠較新，而且是新建的，所以我們現在正在處理這些晶圓廠。因此，我預計它不會像更傳統的大型晶圓廠那樣衰落。

That's great. That's helpful. As a follow-up, as you think about calendar '18, it looks like you're working from a backlog of 7 months today. And other front-end guys, I presume, including yourself, have fairly good visibility into Q1. How are you thinking about the trajectory for revenues into 2018?

那太棒了。這很有幫助。作為後續，當您考慮 18 年日曆時，看起來您今天正在處理 7 個月的積壓工作。我認為包括您在內的其他前端人員對第一季有相當好的了解。您如何看待 2018 年的營收走勢？

Yes. C.J., I mean, it's a little early. But you're right. I mean, given the backlog position we have and what we expect in terms of the order outlook over the next 6 months, we'll see where WFE is. I think we've got a view that a lot of the dynamics that are driving the industry today continue into next year. Obviously, NAND flash will probably be a higher level of investment next year. China's probably bigger. DRAM is probably flat to a little bit lower. Foundry is probably on the margin a little weaker. So I think as we look at all that, we see sort of this continuation of these trends. And so we're sizing the company and modeling similar levels of output. So I don't think it's -- right now, I'm not seeing anything that leads me to believe that it's not flattish or a little bit better than that.

是的。C.J.，我的意思是，現在有點早。但你是對的。我的意思是，考慮到我們的積壓情況以及我們對未來 6 個月訂單前景的預期，我們將看看 WFE 的情況。我認為，我們認為當今推動產業發展的許多動力將持續到明年。顯然，明年NAND快閃記憶體的投資可能會更高一些。中國可能更大。DRAM 可能持平或略低。鑄造廠的利潤率可能稍微弱一些。所以我認為，當我們審視這一切時，我們會看到這些趨勢的延續。因此，我們正在確定公司規模並模擬類似的產出水準。所以我不認為——現在，我沒有看到任何讓我相信它不是持平的或比那更好的東西。

Your next question comes from the line of Romit Shah from Nomura Instinet.

您的下一個問題來自野村極訊的 Romit Shah。

I also wanted to ask about WFE spending. Last fall, it seemed like the industry wasn't contemplating anything more than $35 billion WFE through -- really through next year. And today, we're on track to see more than $40 billion in spending in 2017. So basically you've seen, over the course of 9 months, an incremental $5 billion plus in WFE relative to what people were thinking back then. And I know that you along with your peers are positively biased for next year. But I guess my question is how do you get comfortable that the increase that we've seen so far over the last few quarters hasn't been borrowed from the future?

我還想詢問有關 WFE 支出的問題。去年秋天，業界似乎沒有考慮到任何超過 350 億美元的 WFE——實際上是到明年。今天，我們預計將看到2017年的支出超過400億美元。因此基本上你已經看到，在 9 個月的時間裡，WFE 相對於人們當時的想法增加了 50 多億美元。我知道您和您的同事都對明年有正面的看法。但我想我的問題是，您如何放心，我們在過去幾季中看到的成長不是從未來借來的？

Yes, that's a great question. I think a good way to think about it is where it's coming from. One of the biggest changes in the profile is relative to what's happening in China overall. And that investment is not really against leading edge. And so that's less about coming from the future and more about -- it may affect some other people's trailing edge once it comes up and be a revenue battle for some of our customers. But it's kind of new capital. And we'd all heard about China's spending for many years. It just hadn't materialized. And now we're seeing a lot of those projects. So that's part one. The other part for us is the broad participation across the 7- and 10-nanometer logic in the foundry space. And so that's a little bit different too and just a bigger commitment to that node than we saw in the last cycle. But of course, there's a cyclicality associated with these businesses. So I think there'll be ebbs and flows. For example, NAND probably softens in 2018 because of all the capacity that's coming on or at least stays flat.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為思考這個問題的一個好方法是思考它來自哪裡。概況中最大的變化之一是與中國整體情況有關的。而這種投資其實並不是針對前沿技術。因此，這與其說是來自未來，不如說是——一旦它出現，它可能會影響其他人的後緣，並成為我們一些客戶的收入之戰。但它是一種新資本。多年來我們都聽說過中國的支出。它只是尚未實現。現在我們看到了很多這樣的項目。這是第一部分。對我們來說，另一部分是代工領域 7 奈米和 10 奈米邏輯的廣泛參與。因此，這也有點不同，並且與我們在上一個週期中看到的相比，對該節點的承諾更大。但當然，這些業務具有週期性。所以我認為會有起伏。例如，由於所有產能的增加，NAND 可能在 2018 年出現疲軟，或至少保持穩定。

And your backlog, I thought C.J. mentioned it was like 7 months. Is that -- I mean, is that pretty locked in? What portion of that is actually cancelable?

至於您的積壓工作，我記得 C.J. 提到過是 7 個月。這是不是——我的意思是，這是不是很確定？其中有多少部分實際上可以取消？

Well, I mean, normally our business runs -- it's a little bit hotter now because the order strength over the last couple of quarters has been pretty significant. I mean, we've had 2 out of 3 quarters over $1 billion. So we'll start to ship down on that. I mean, we generally run between 5 and 6 months. I guess, any of the backlog -- I mean, what customers do is they don't usually cancel. What they do is they push, right? That's usually the indication. You'll see them start to push orders out. And then at some point, then they'll start to convert those to newer versions of the products they had as they get ready to receive those tools. But if you look at what's loaded in the factory, I would characterize the environment as customers generally pulling to get the tools quickly. And so far, we feel pretty comfortable with what we're seeing. We spend a lot of time looking at indicators and all the different things that are out there. And we feel pretty good about the underlying fundamentals of what we're seeing today. And a lot of what's going on in China is -- I'm not sure is really contributing to the global sort of supply-demand dynamics, at least at this time. And so that's future investment for the long run. And so I don't think that, that necessarily worries us from an overheating perspective at least early on.

嗯，我的意思是，通常我們的業務運行——現在有點熱絡，因為過去幾季的訂單強度相當大。我的意思是，我們有三個季度中有兩個季度的銷售額超過 10 億美元。因此我們將開始運送該貨物。我的意思是，我們通常運行 5 到 6 個月。我想，任何積壓的訂單——我的意思是，客戶通常不會取消。他們所做的就是推動，對嗎？這通常就是跡象。您會看到他們開始發出訂單。然後在某個時候，他們會開始將這些產品轉換為他們已有產品的較新版本，因為他們準備接收這些工具。但如果你看看工廠裡裝載的東西，我會把這種環境描述為顧客通常會快速拉動以獲得工具。到目前為止，我們對所看到的情況感到非常滿意。我們花費大量時間研究指標和各種不同的東西。我們對今天所見的基本面感到非常滿意。而中國發生的很多事情——我不確定是否真的對全球的供需動態產生了影響，至少目前是這樣。這就是長期的未來投資。因此，我認為，至少在早期，我們不一定會從過熱的角度來擔心這一點。

Okay. And if I could just sneak in one more. You talked -- Rick, talked about NAND and the foundry logic. How does DRAM fit into the 2018 equation?

好的。如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次就好了。您談到了——里克，談到了 NAND 和代工邏輯。DRAM 在 2018 年的方程式中處於什麼位置？

What we were saying -- I mean, DRAM has bounced back this year from '16, 1. The leader didn't invest a lot in '16, so we've seen some investment. I think -- look, it looks like it's an undersupply. So I don't think DRAM is going to be up as we move into next year. Maybe it's flat, maybe it's down a little bit. I don't see it changing a lot. But hard to see how it's up a lot from where it's at right now, at least just generally how we see it.

我們所說的是 - 我的意思是，DRAM 今年已從 2016 年反彈，1. 領導者在 2016 年沒有投入太多，因此我們看到了一些投資。我認為——看起來，這似乎是供應不足。因此我認為，進入明年，DRAM 的價格不會上漲。可能是持平，也可能略有下降。我不認為它有太大變化。但很難看出它與現在相比有何大幅上漲，至少我們總體上是這麼認為的。

Your next question comes from the line of Toshiya Hari from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had a follow-up on China as well. Unless I heard you incorrectly, Rick, I think you talked about your Chinese business in calendar '17 doubling year-over-year. I was wondering if that included some of the multinational spending or was that a pure local number. And if you can talk a little bit about the preliminary outlook into 2018 for your China business, that would be helpful.

我也對中國進行了跟蹤。如果我沒聽錯的話，瑞克，我想你說的是 2017 年你們的中國業務比去年同期成長了一倍。我想知道這是否包括部分跨國支出，還是純粹是本地數字。如果您能談談貴公司對 2018 年中國業務的初步展望，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. The doubling we're referring to is native Chinese investment. We also have the multinational, but we're talking about what's going on there. And in terms of 2018, if you think about some of the ordering we're seeing is for the first phase, what these customers will tell you is there's a subsequent phase planned. So we think that China continues to be strong as we go forward into 2018. But whether or not -- internally, we discount the numbers that we've heard in CapEx from China over the next 5 years, and it's still pretty strong if you even discount them in half based on what some of these players are saying they're going to do.

是的。我們所說的翻倍是指中國本土投資。我們也有跨國公司，但我們正在討論那裡發生的事情。就 2018 年而言，如果您想到我們看到的一些訂單是針對第一階段的，那麼這些客戶會告訴您，還有後續階段的計劃。因此我們認為，進入2018年，中國經濟將持續保持強勁。但無論是否——在內部，我們都會對未來 5 年中國資本支出的數字進行打折，而且即使根據一些參與者所說的將要做的事情將其打折一半，它仍然相當強勁。

Great. And then as a follow-up, I had a question on your bare wafer inspection business. I appreciate it's not necessarily a big part of your business today. But if and when some of your customers decide to expand capacity, I think it could be a pretty nice business for you guys given the gross margin profile. Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing today from those customers and what the outlook is into the second half and potentially to 2018?

偉大的。然後作為後續問題，我對你們的裸晶圓檢測業務有一個疑問。我知道這不一定是你今天業務的重要組成部分。但如果你們的一些客戶決定擴大產能，考慮到毛利率狀況，我認為這對你們來說可能是一筆相當不錯的生意。您能否簡單談談您目前從這些客戶那裡看到的情況以及對下半年甚至 2018 年的前景如何？

Sure. Yes. No, it's actually -- it is an important business for us. It's a strong business. And not only that, what we're seeing is demand both from wafer manufacturers but also from customers. I see customers who are qualifying tools for ramps. It is an important part of the business. It is part of the uptick, and we're seeing in orders, and it will come in revenue as we go through. So it is -- it has been strong, and that's both for defect and also for flatness. So it's an important part of our story going forward.

當然。是的。不，實際上——這對我們來說是一項重要的業務。這是一項強大的業務。不僅如此，我們還看到來自晶圓製造商和客戶的需求。我看到客戶正在為坡道尋找合格的工具。這是業務的重要組成部分。這是上升趨勢的一部分，我們在訂單中看到了這一點，隨著我們的發展，它也將帶來收入。所以它一直很強大，無論是缺陷還是平整度。所以這是我們未來故事的重要組成部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho from Stifel, Nicolaus.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho，Nicolaus。

Rick, the last time you saw this kind of really surge in sustained business was when the 28-nanometer node rolled out. Maybe a 2-part question there. Do you believe based on your customer conversations that the 10- and 7-nanometer node will be as large as 28? And secondly, can you -- given the strength that you've seen in the last few quarters, what is the capital intensity change or increase from 28 to the 10, 7?

里克，你上次看到這種持續業務的真正激增是在 28 奈米節點推出的時候。這可能是一個由兩部分組成的問題。根據您與客戶的交談，您是否認為 10 奈米和 7 奈米節點將達到 28 奈米那麼大？其次，鑑於您在過去幾季看到的強勁勢頭，您能否預測資本密集度從 28 到 10、7 的變化或成長是多少？

Yes. Great question. I think that the first part of that answer is there certainly is a lot of broad investment for the 10 and 7. What's interesting about it though if you unpack a lot of our orders, the strength in our orders is really not as much from 10 and 7 as it is what we're seeing in memory and some of the other segments that we're in. So it is strong, but we haven't actually seen the same kind of surge we saw in 28 as we're seeing in 10 and 7. That said, it's pretty broad right now. And we think there are at least 3 maybe 4 players that are going to be involved in that, that we'll see going forward. We are hearing from customers they think the size is going to be similar. But it's still early for 7. And right now what we're seeing is pretty intense investment around the 10 node.

是的。好問題。我認為答案的第一部分是，針對 10 和 7 的廣泛投資肯定很多。但有趣的是，如果你分析我們的許多訂單，你會發現，我們訂單的強度實際上並不像 10 和 7 那麼大，而是我們在記憶體和我們所處的其他一些領域看到的那麼大。所以它很強勁，但實際上我們並沒有看到像 28 年和 10 年那樣的激增。也就是說，現在它的範圍相當廣泛。我們認為至少有 3 到 4 名參與者將參與其中，我們將拭​​目以待。我們聽到顧客說他們認為尺寸會相似。但對於 7 來說還為時過早。目前我們看到的是圍繞 10 節點的投資相當激烈。

Great. That's helpful. And maybe as my second question, in terms of the services business, where you've also seen the revenues ramp over the last few quarters, given the process control isn't like a process tool like edge that basically eats itself up, what type of offerings or what type of solutions are you offering customers on the services end that will help grow that business to that 7% to 9% growth rate you talk about?

偉大的。這很有幫助。也許我的第二個問題是，就服務業務而言，您也看到過去幾個季度的收入正在增長，考慮到過程控制不像邊緣那樣基本上會自我消耗的過程工具，您在服務端為客戶提供什麼類型的產品或解決方案，以幫助該業務增長到您所說的 7％ 到 9％ 的增長率？

Yes. Patrick, it's Bren. It is a different business than our process tool peers. And so what you typically have is -- so 75% of that revenue stream is contract, right? So we have customers that buy service contracts that -- with different levels of coverage across either certain tools or broadly across a fab. And so most of that revenue is repeatable, and it allows us to staff and rightsize those fabs to maintain good utilization but also to get pretty good predictably about part failure and so on. So -- but what we end up selling is -- we replace parts, right? And so then there's the parts. And as those parts fail over time, and you have lasers that have lights -- use of lights and so on. So that's really the biggest part of the business. But it isn't traditional break and fix and that -- it's billable. It's really contract. So it really works for us and works for customers because we can keep the tools up and keep them optimized and run preventative maintenances and those kinds of checks on them over time to keep them running, and it works out on both ends.

是的。派崔克，我是布倫。這與我們的流程工具同行的業務不同。那麼通常的情況是——75% 的收入來源是合同，對嗎？因此，我們有客戶購買服務合同，這些合約對某些工具或整個晶圓廠具有不同程度的覆蓋範圍。因此，大部分收入都是可重複的，它使我們能夠為這些晶圓廠配備人員並調整其規模，以保持良好的利用率，同時也能很好地預測零件故障等。所以——但我們最終銷售的是——我們更換零件，對嗎？然後就有了各個部分。隨著這些部件隨著時間的推移而失效，你就會有一個帶燈的雷射器——使用燈等等。所以這確實是業務中最重要的部分。但它並不是傳統的故障維修，而是需要收費的。這確實是合約。所以它對我們和客戶來說確實有效，因為我們可以保持工具的正常運行並使其保持優化，並隨著時間的推移對它們進行預防性維護和諸如此類的檢查以保持它們的運行，並且它對兩端都有用。

One of the other things is the decay rate. You think about service contracts on tools and how long you service them, part of what's happened is people are keeping them in production longer. So if you think about fully utilized, older-generation fabs that for many of our customers are just printing money because they're fully depreciated, the tool life is longer than we expected, which means the decay rate on the back end is slower, which is part of the contributor to the growth because you have stuff coming in and you don't have as much stuff coming out. And that's really the benefit we're seeing from IoT.

另一件事是衰減率。您可以考慮工具的服務合約以及服務期限，部分原因是人們希望讓它們在生產中運行更長時間。因此，如果您考慮充分利用的老一代晶圓廠，對於我們的許多客戶來說，它們只是在印錢，因為它們已經完全折舊，工具壽命比我們預期的要長，這意味著後端的衰減速度更慢，這是增長的部分原因，因為有東西進來，而沒有那麼多東西出來。這確實是我們從物聯網看到的好處。

Your next question comes from the line of Edwin Mok from Needham & Company.

您的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok。

So first question, I want to try and get an update in terms of your view about Gen 5. We talked about it before, and I think right now you talk about mostly still being used on rebuild. How do you kind of think about that tool onto production? Do we still have to wait until 5 nanometer? Or is it you'd be the big kicker for that? If you can give us some color on that.

所以第一個問題，我想嘗試了解您對 Gen 5 的看法。我們之前討論過這個問題，我認為現在您談論的主要是仍在重建中使用。您如何看待將該工具投入生產？難道還要等到5奈米嗎？或者說你會成為其中最大的推動者？如果您能給我們一些相關資訊。

Well, the good news is we're kind of doing what we wanted to do with Gen 5 in terms of we're having broad shipments across a number of customers. And we're basically on a 1 a month shipment rate, and so we continue to do that. I think the time when we would ramp that up is when we'd see it going into larger scale production. So there are some customers that are talking about production for it, but it's a limited number of layers. And when that happens, then we'll see multiple tools. But right now, we're seeding the market. We're penetrating the market. We -- it's a tricky supply chain situation, so we're keeping it at 1 a month right now as we go forward, and we'll ramp up. It's hard to say. Preliminary results are good. There's a lot of use cases for customers. But we stick to what we said before, where we think it really is a tool that ramps into production out a couple of years, high volume really when EUV is kicking in, so you'd say 2019, 2020.

嗯，好消息是，我們正在做我們想對 Gen 5 做的事情，因為我們已經向許多客戶進行了廣泛的出貨。我們的出貨率基本上是每月 1 次，因此我們會繼續這樣做。我認為，當我們看到它進入更大規模生產時，我們就會增加生產力。因此，有些客戶正在談論它的生產，但層數有限。當這種情況發生時，我們將看到多種工具。但現在，我們正在開拓市場。我們正在滲透市場。我們——這是一個棘手的供應鏈情況，因此，隨著我們繼續前進，我們現在將其保持在每月 1 個，並且我們會逐步增加。這很難說。初步結果良好。對於客戶來說有很多用例。但我們堅持先前的說法，我們認為這確實是一種可以在幾年內投入生產的工具，當 EUV 開始發揮作用時，產量會真正大幅提升，所以你會說是在 2019 年、2020 年。

Okay. Actually, that's helpful color. And then on the server side, I have a question actually. So one of your peers or some of the company in the supply chain, right, they would charge customer or they would write a contract with customer where they do almost a yield-based or performance-based contract with customer. For example, I think [Fima] used to do that. So I'm just curious, is that something that you guys entertain or is -- was in the 75% of your services contract? Are you guys trying to look at doing that in your service contract? Or is it still mostly fixed type of contract?

好的。事實上，這是有用的顏色。然後在伺服器端，我實際上有一個問題。因此，您的某個同行或供應鏈中的某些公司會向客戶收費，或者與客戶簽訂合同，他們與客戶簽訂的幾乎是基於收益或基於績效的合同。例如，我認為[Fima] 曾經這樣做過。所以我只是好奇，這是你們考慮的事情嗎？或者這是你們服務合約中 75% 的內容？你們是否考慮在服務合約中這樣做？或者它仍然主要是固定類型的合約？

So we have a lot of key metrics that were -- that we agree to with customers, largely around availability of the tools and response time in service. And so we've historically done that. And of course, as these tools become more mission critical for our customers, that's part of the arrangement that we have. So when it comes to extending the life and working very hard to make sure we don't disrupt production, we already do that. That is part of the benefit that customers have for going contract. There are things we're doing to enhance the business we talked about in the last question. And some of them have to do with older fabs, where we continue to offer enhancements to the tools. A lot of tools that have been in the market for a long time have upgrades available for customers, and we'll continue to offer those as we go forward. So I'd say we already have that as part of the offering.

因此，我們有許多與客戶達成一致的關鍵指標，主要圍繞著工具的可用性和服務的回應時間。我們從歷史上就一直這樣做。當然，隨著這些工具對我們的客戶變得越來越重要，這也是我們安排的一部分。因此，當談到延長壽命並努力確保不會中斷生產時，我們已經這樣做了。這是客戶簽訂合約所獲得的好處之一。我們正在做一些事情來加強我們在上一個問題中談到的業務。其中一些與舊工廠有關，我們會繼續對這些工廠的工具進行增強。許多已經在市場上存在很長時間的工具都為客戶提供了升級版本，並且我們將繼續提供這些升級版本。所以我想說我們已經將其作為產品的一部分了。

The next question comes from the line of Jagadish Iyer from Summit Redstone.

下一個問題來自 Summit Redstone 的 Jagadish Iyer。

Two questions. Rick, first, historically, September quarter has been a big one for you guys, but you have a very guidance. So the question is, are there any greenfields that are driving that? And as a part of that question is that can you provide some color on how many greenfields you have for this year? And are there any thoughts on for next year? And then I have a follow-up.

兩個問題。里克，首先，從歷史上看，九月季度對你們來說是一個重要的季度，但你給了非常好的指導。所以問題是，是否有任何綠地在推動這項進程？問題的一部分是，您能否透露今年有多少個綠地？對於明年有什麼想法嗎？然後我有一個後續問題。

Yes. Jagadish, it is a little atypical to see the strength in September compared to the last few years. So we're encouraged by that. I don't have the actual number in front of me. I think we'll be shipping a fair amount. I think from a -- the second half has a fair amount of memory in the mix of shipments. There's obviously some additional 10-nanometer investment on the foundry that's shipping as well. So most of the China stuff which is greenfield is not shipping for a little while. So I guess, that's how I'd characterize the shipment profile next quarter. But as I said in the prepared remarks, strong and stable, and we see a second half shipment profile that's up a little bit versus the first half so -- evenly weighted across the year and probably more memory-centric in the second half of the year versus what we saw in the first half.

是的。賈加迪什，與過去幾年相比，9 月的強勁表現有點不尋常。所以我們對此感到鼓舞。我面前沒有實際的數字。我認為我們將會運送相當數量的貨物。我認為從下半年的出貨量來看，記憶體佔有相當大一部分份額。顯然，對於正在出貨的代工廠來說，還有一些額外的 10 奈米投資。因此，中國大部分未開發的地區暫時無法出貨。所以我想這就是我對下個季度出貨情況的描述。但正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，強勁而穩定，我們看到下半年的出貨量比上半年略有上升，因此全年的權重均勻，並且與上半年相比，下半年可能更多地以內存為中心。

Yes. One other interesting attribute of our business environment, we looked at this recently, and the concentration from the top customers is actually down. We actually have broader customers. And when we look at the top 10, the percent they make up of the business has decreased in this calendar year. It was slightly down last year, and we anticipate that broadening. So the good news is I think we have more customers and more locations and more offerings for them.

是的。我們最近研究了我們的商業環境的另一個有趣的屬性，頂級客戶的集中度實際上下降了。我們實際上擁有更廣泛的客戶。當我們查看排名前十的公司時，我們發現他們所佔的業務百分比在今年有所下降。去年這數字略有下降，我們預計這一數字還會擴大。所以好消息是，我認為我們擁有更多的客戶、更多的地點以及為他們提供更多的產品。

Okay, excellent. And just as a follow-up. You talked about, Rick, in your prepared remarks about new products and particularly for the memory segment. If -- hypothetically, if you assume that WFE is up, say, 5% for next year, would it be fair to say that you could outperform WFE as these new products start to bear fruit?

好的，非常好。這只是後續行動。里克，您在準備好的演講中談到了新產品，特別是內存部分。如果——假設，如果您假設 WFE 明年會上漲 5%，那麼隨著這些新產品開始取得成果，是否可以說您的表現可以超越 WFE？

Actually, I'll let Bren take that one.

實際上，我會讓布倫拿那個。

Yes. I mean, one thing about next year is it looks like next year's WFE mix is a little more memory-centric. And as you know, the process control intensity in memory while it is getting better isn't near foundry. So $1 billion of WFE depending on the segment is not created equal for us. So -- but we've seen some improvement on the memory side, which we're encouraged by. I think these new products given the timing of when they'll ship and go to market and we'll actually start to see revenue given the valuation process and so on, I think in the second half of the year we might see some revenue. But I think it'll be a pretty small amount. But as I look at our plans for next year, I look at the funnel, I don't see any reason why KLA shouldn't grow in line with -- at least in line with the market as we move into '18.

是的。我的意思是，關於明年的一件事是，明年的 WFE 組合看起來會更加以記憶為中心。而且如您所知，內存的工藝控制強度雖然不斷提高，但還不及代工水平。因此，根據不同的細分市場，10 億美元的 WFE 對我們來說並不是平等的。所以——但是我們看到記憶體方面有一些改進，這讓我們感到鼓舞。我認為這些新產品考慮到它們的發貨和上市時間，考慮到估值過程等，我們實際上會開始看到收入，我認為在今年下半年我們可能會看到一些收入。但我認為這個金額會很小。但當我審視我們明年的計劃時，我看著漏斗，我看不出 KLA 不應該與市場同步增長的任何理由——至少在我們進入 2018 年時與市場同步增長。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Atif Malik from Citi.

（操作員指示）您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿蒂夫·馬利克 (Atif Malik)。

Rick, good job in kind of refocusing KLA on memory in China after the merger breakup. My question is on 3D NAND yield. Can you help us understand where the 3D NAND yields are on Gen 1 NAND at 48 layer, just kind of blended across all (inaudible) and where the yields are on second generation in 64-layer NAND? And is there a reason to believe that there's something structural about migration from 48 to 64 to 96 which will keep the yield kind of low for a sustainable period of time?

里克，在合併破裂後，KLA 重新將重點放在中國記憶體業務上，做得很好。我的問題是關於 3D NAND 的產量。您能否幫助我們了解 48 層第一代 NAND 的 3D NAND 產量在哪裡，只是混合在所有（聽不清楚）中，以及 64 層 NAND 的第二代的產量在哪裡？是否有理由相信，從 48 歲到 64 歲再到 96 歲之間的遷移存在某種結構性因素，從而使得收益率在一段可持續的時間內保持在較低水平？

Well, as you know, one of the biggest challenges is one of the ones we're trying to address, which is the ability to catch defects in the process. So as a result, when customers have process problems, they have to go through some pretty rigorous engineering analysis to unpack those problems. So you see 2 things. One, you see actual wafer yield as sometimes -- probably, it is averaging lower than what you would see on 2D. And it's probably -- depends on customers somewhat how that is, but it is lower. But it's still pretty good. And you see that because they're having success selling them commercially. But the other thing is you see line yield bust, which is a little different, which is when you have a number of wafers that are actually bad and have to be scrapped. And for many customers, that's very disruptive to their business. So I'd say that, yes, structurally it's very hard to build these. Especially as you're going up in layers, the devices -- for 2 reasons. One, the process technology is very tricky. And the second one, you don't have a lot of visibility into it. And it's kind of like the old days of semiconductor manufacturing when we didn't have as much in line and people had to use destructive means or short loops to try to figure out what was wrong with their process. So there is opportunity. I think we've repeatedly said that if we could help with solutions that help customers gain a few points of yield, that's easily justifiable on their end. But I would say yields are in the range of probably -- if you'd see them over 90% in 2D, you'd see similar yields at, say, 10 points lower, say, 80% or so for -- and maybe they're even higher than 90% in 2D. So you'd see a degradation as you go to the 3D.

嗯，如您所知，最大的挑戰之一也是我們正在努力解決的挑戰之一，即在過程中發現缺陷的能力。因此，當客戶遇到製程問題時，他們必須經過一些相當嚴格的工程分析來解決這些問題。所以你看到了兩件事。首先，您會看到實際晶圓產量有時 - 可能平均低於您在 2D 上看到的產量。這可能在某種程度上取決於客戶，但這個數字較低。但還是很不錯的。之所以如此，是因為他們在商業銷售方面取得了成功。但另一件事是，你會看到生產線產量暴跌，這有點不同，即當你有大量晶圓實際上是壞的並且必須被廢棄時。對於許多客戶來說，這對他們的業務造成了很大的干擾。所以我想說，是的，從結構上來說，建造這些非常困難。特別是當你層層向上移動設備時——有兩個原因。一是工藝技術十分棘手。對於第二點，你對它的了解並不多。這有點像半導體製造業的舊時代，那時我們沒有那麼多生產線，人們不得不使用破壞性手段或短循環來試圖找出他們的工藝出了什麼問題。所以還有機會。我想我們已經反覆說過，如果我們能夠提供解決方案，幫助客戶獲得一些收益，那麼這對他們來說也是合理的。但我想說收益率可能在這樣的範圍內——如果你看到 2D 收益率超過 90%，那麼你會看到類似的收益率，比如說低 10 個點，比如說 80% 左右——甚至可能 2D 收益率高於 90%。因此，當你進入 3D 時，你會看到品質下降。

Very helpful. As a follow-up, the bifurcation in leading edge foundry versus lagging edge is expanding. UMC [declared CapEx] and have decided to actually focus on the lagging edge. So when you're talking to the Chinese domestic foundry customers, are they asking for 28-nanometer equipment? Are they asking for the latest 10-, 40-nanometer equipment?

非常有幫助。隨後，領先代工與落後代工之間的分歧正在擴大。UMC[宣布資本支出]並已決定真正專注於落後領域。那麼，當您與中國國內代工客戶交談時，他們是否要求 28 奈米設備？他們是否要求最新的 10 奈米、40 奈米設備？

It varies. I mean, they definitely have ambitions to advance nodes down the road. So you do see some interest in the advanced, and you'll see customers doing, in that case, in the foundry some R&D or at least some of them doing some. But by and large, it's the older tool sets because they do have capital costs to manage, and they've got to try to hit the cost per wafer target that everybody else has. But you do see some interest in the advanced. And they also want to have a path and a road map. The good news relative to our equipment is we have upgrades available on things like our GEN 4 wafer inspection, as an example, where we can continue to add value to a tool set that they buy.

它因人而異。我的意思是，他們確實有雄心壯志來推進未來的節點。因此，你確實看到了人們對先進技術的興趣，你會看到客戶在代工廠進行一些研發，或者至少他們中的一些人在做一些研發。但總的來說，這是較舊的工具集，因為它們確實需要管理資本成本，而且它們必須嘗試達到其他人所擁有的每晶圓成本目標。但你確實看到了人們對先進技術的一些興趣。他們還希望有一條道路和一份路線圖。關於我們設備的好消息是，我們可以對諸如GEN 4晶圓檢測之類的設備進行升級，例如，我們可以繼續為他們購買的工具集增加價值。

There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Ed Lockwood, I turn the call back over to you.

目前沒有其他問題。艾德洛克伍德先生，我把電話轉回給您。

Okay. Thank you, Christine. Thank you all for joining us here today. Just a reminder, there's an audio replay of the call, and it will be available on our website later on this afternoon. Operator, this concludes our call. Thank you.

好的。謝謝你，克里斯汀。感謝各位今天來參加我們的活動。提醒一下，本次通話有音訊回放，將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上發布。接線員，我們的通話到此結束。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。謝謝。