科磊 (KLAC) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Marianna, and I will be your conference Operator today. At this time. I would like to welcome everyone to the second-quarter FY17 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session.

    午安.我叫瑪麗安娜,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。此時。歡迎大家參加 2017 財年第二季財報電話會議。所有線路均已靜音,以防止任何背景噪音。發言人發言後,將進行問答環節。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Thank you, I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Ed Lockwood. You may begin your conference.

    謝謝,現在我想把電話轉給 Ed Lockwood 先生。您可以開始您的會議了。

  • Ed Lockwood - Senior Director of IR

    Ed Lockwood - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you, Marianna. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our conference call. Joining me on our call today are Rick Wallace, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bren Higgins, our Chief Financial Officer. We're here to discuss second-quarter results for the period ended December 31, 2016. We released these results this afternoon at 1.15 PM Pacific Time. If you haven't seen the release, you can find it on our website at www.KLA-Tencor.com. A simulcast of this call will be accessible on demand following its completion on the Investor Relations section of our website.

    謝謝你,瑪麗安娜。大家下午好,歡迎參加我們的電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Rick Wallace 和財務長 Bren Higgins。我們在此討論截至 2016 年 12 月 31 日的第二季業績。我們在今天下午太平洋時間 1 點 15 分公佈了這些結果。如果您還沒有看到該新聞稿,您可以在我們的網站 www.KLA-Tencor.com 上找到。本次電話會議結束後,可透過我們網站的「投資者關係」部分按需觀看同步直播。

  • Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings Press Release on KLA-Tencor's IR website. There you'll also find a calendar of future investor events, presentations, and conferences as well as links to KLA-Tencor's SEC filings including our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2016. In those filings, you'll find descriptions of Risk Factors that could impact our future results.

    除非另有說明,今天對我們財務結果的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現。在 KLA-Tencor 的 IR 網站上今天的收益新聞稿中可以找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果的詳細對帳。您還可以在這裡找到未來投資者活動、演示和會議的日曆,以及 KLA-Tencor 的 SEC 文件的鏈接,包括截至 2016 年 6 月 30 日的 10-K 表年度報告。在這些文件中,您會發現可能影響我們未來結果的風險因素的描述。

  • As you know, our future results are subject to risks. Any forward-looking statements, including those we make on this call today, are subject to those risks, and KLA-Tencor cannot guarantee those forward-looking statements will come true. Our actual results may differ significantly from those projected in our forward-looking statements. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rick.

    如您所知,我們的未來業績面臨風險。任何前瞻性陳述,包括我們今天在電話會議上所做的陳述,都受這些風險的影響,而 KLA-Tencor 無法保證這些前瞻性陳述會成真。我們的實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有很大差異。說完這些,我會把電話轉給里克。

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • Good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'm pleased to announce that can KLA-Tencor's business continues to perform at a very high level, and we delivered another outstanding result in the December quarter exceeding our guidance for shipments, revenue, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the period. In addition, new orders topped $1 billion for the first time in Q2 reflecting KLA-Tencor's market leadership and the critical role process control plays in enabling our customers success at the leading edge and in legacy nodes. For the full year, in calendar 2016, KLA-Tencor grew revenue 14% compared to mid- to high single-digits growth for the wafer fabrication industry. Our exemplary performance both in the December quarter and for the full year in 2016 is the result of KLA-Tencor's market leadership and coupled with our record backlog of over $1.6 billion sets the stage for another year of strong top line and earnings growth for the Company in calendar 2017.

    大家下午好。今天,我很高興地宣布,KLA-Tencor 的業務繼續保持非常高的水平,我們在 12 月季度再次取得了出色的業績,超出了我們對該期間出貨量、收入和非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益的預期。此外,第二季新訂單首次突破 10 億美元,反映了 KLA-Tencor 的市場領導地位以及工藝控制在幫助我們的客戶在前沿和傳統節點取得成功方面發揮的關鍵作用。2016 年全年,KLA-Tencor 的營收成長了 14%,而晶圓製造業的成長率僅為中高個位數。我們在 2016 年 12 月季度和全年的出色表現得益於 KLA-Tencor 的市場領導地位,再加上我們超過 16 億美元的創紀錄積壓訂單,為公司在 2017 年再次實現強勁的收入和盈利增長奠定了基礎。

  • As our record order and backlog numbers demonstrate, KLA-Tencor is experiencing unprecedented levels of demand in our end markets, particularly in foundry and memory. Memory was notably strong in the December quarter driven by both DRAM and 3D NAND investments in Korea where we are experiencing higher adoption of bear wafer inspection along with thin film and critical dimension measurement solutions as a result of more films being deposited in vertical memory. KLA-Tencor's growth and market leadership is fueled by the successful execution of a product strategy that is focused on differentiation and intersecting market needs with a portfolio of complimentary solutions. This ongoing investment innovation and technology leadership helped to drive these strong results in 2016 and is a critical component for our long-term growth strategies.

    正如我們創紀錄的訂單和積壓訂單數量所表明的那樣,KLA-Tencor 在我們的終端市場,特別是在代工和內存領域,正經歷著前所未有的需求水平。12 月季度,記憶體表現尤為強勁,這得益於韓國對 DRAM 和 3D NAND 的投資。由於在垂直記憶體中沉積了更多薄膜,我們在晶圓檢測以及薄膜和關鍵尺寸測量解決方案方面的採用率有所提高。KLA-Tencor 的成長和市場領導地位得益於成功實施的產品策略,該策略專注於差異化並透過一系列互補解決方案滿足市場需求。持續的投資創新和技術領導力有助於推動 2016 年的強勁業績,並且是我們長期成長策略的關鍵組成部分。

  • For example, KLA-Tencor's two latest broadband plasma optical inspection platforms, Gen 4 and Gen 5, together address the most challenging defect detection issues for development and capacity monitoring applications of current and Next-Generation devices in the marketplace today. We are now on our fourth major product upgrade for the Gen 4 optical inspection platform with multiple tools placed in every advanced production fab in the marketplace. And, one of the key highlights of the year in 2016 was the successful launch of Gen 5, our new flagship broadband plasma inspection platform. Gen 5 is being deployed by customers to address early yield learning and engineering analysis applications for advanced optical lithography design rules and for EUV development. Calendar 2016 was a record year for the broadband plasma product family, and we see momentum continuing through 2017.

    例如,KLA-Tencor 的兩個最新寬頻等離子光學檢測平台 Gen 4 和 Gen 5 共同解決了當今市場上現有和下一代設備的開發和容量監控應用中最具有挑戰性的缺陷檢測問題。目前,我們正在對第四代光學檢測平台進行第四次重大產品升級,市場上每個先進的生產工廠都配備了多種工具。2016 年的一大亮點是成功推出了我們的新旗艦寬頻等離子偵測平台 Gen 5。客戶正在部署 Gen 5 來解決先進光學微影設計規則和 EUV 開發的早期產量學習和工程分析應用。2016 年是寬頻等離子產品系列創紀錄的一年,我們預計這股動能將持續到 2017 年。

  • In addition to supplying wafer inspection capability for EUV layers, KLA-Tencor is also playing a critical role in reticle inspection for EUV. Our customers are relying on us as a trusted partner to enable success of the important technology transition to EUV, a move that will allow for lateral scaling and more economical device road maps at the leading edge. The new challenges inherent to EUV-specific process control applications such as mask inspection, reticle requalification, and scanner control -- just to name a few -- present new market opportunities that we believe KLA-Tencor is uniquely positioned to address, given our market and leadership in technology. EUV promises to be a positive catalyst for growth at the advanced process control market and for KLA-Tencor.

    除了提供 EUV 層的晶圓偵測能力外,KLA-Tencor 還在 EUV 的光罩檢測中發揮關鍵作用。我們的客戶依賴我們作為值得信賴的合作夥伴,以確保向 EUV 的重要技術轉型取得成功,這一舉措將允許橫向擴展和更經濟的前沿設備路線圖。EUV 特定製程控制應用所固有的新挑戰(例如掩模檢查、光罩重新鑑定和掃描器控制等)提供了新的市場機遇,我們相信,憑藉我們的市場和技術領導地位,KLA-Tencor 具有獨特的優勢來應對這些機會。EUV 有望成為先進製程控制市場和 KLA-Tencor 成長的積極催化劑。

  • So, to summarize, KLA-Tencor's December quarter and calendar 2016 results demonstrates our strategies are working and the Company is operating from a position of strength as we venture into another year of expected strong growth and earnings generation. Given a business model that consistently delivers superior operating leverage, ranking KLA-Tencor among the top tier of leading semiconductor Companies, and with our strong leadership position in each of the most critical process control markets, the stage is set to build on the momentum of calendar 2016 and deliver what we plan to be another exciting year in 2017. We believe KLA-Tencor is well positioned to successfully execute our strategies and meet our -- or exceed our long-term revenue growth objective of 5% to 7% in 2017 in what is expected to be another year of solid growth for the wafer fab equipment market.

    總而言之,KLA-Tencor 12 月季度和 2016 年度業績表明我們的策略正在發揮作用,公司正以強勁地位運營,我們即將進入又一個預期強勁增長和盈利的一年。鑑於我們始終如一地提供卓越營運槓桿的商業模式,KLA-Tencor 躋身領先半導體公司的前列,並憑藉我們在每個最關鍵的過程控制市場的強大領導地位,我們已準備好利用 2016 年的勢頭,實現我們計劃在 2017 年成為又一個令人興奮的一年。我們相信,KLA-Tencor 完全有能力成功執行我們的策略,並在 2017 年實現或超過 5% 至 7% 的長期收入成長目標,預計 2017 年將是晶圓廠設備市場又一個穩健成長的一年。

  • Now, turning to the guidance for the March quarter. Q3 shipments are expected to be in the range of $850 million to $930 million. Revenue for the quarter is expected to be in the range of $860 million to $920 million with non-GAAP diluted earnings in the range of $1.42 per share to $1.62 per share. I will now turn the call over to Bren Higgins for his comments. Bren?

    現在,我們來談談三月季度的指導。預計第三季出貨量將在 8.5 億美元至 9.3 億美元之間。預計本季營收將在 8.6 億美元至 9.2 億美元之間,非 GAAP 稀釋收益將在每股 1.42 美元至 1.62 美元之間。現在我將把電話轉給布倫希金斯,請他發表評論。布倫?

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • Thanks, Rick. Good afternoon, everyone. As Rick highlighted in his opening remarks, the December quarter represented another outstanding period of financial performance and operational execution for KLA-Tencor. Shipments, revenue, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share each finished above the range of guidance in the quarter. This result was driven by strong demand across our product portfolio with particular strength in our flagship wafer and mask inspection product lines as well as solid execution and cost Management in our manufacturing and service operations. Revenue was $877 million in the December quarter. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.52 and would have been $1.57 per share at the 21% guided tax rate. GAAP earnings per share was also $1.52, too.

    謝謝,里克。大家下午好。正如 Rick 在開幕詞中所強調的那樣,12 月季度是 KLA-Tencor 財務業績和營運執行的另一個出色時期。本季出貨量、收入和非公認會計準則每股攤薄收益均超出預期範圍。這一結果得益於我們產品組合的強勁需求,尤其是我們的旗艦晶圓和掩模檢測產品線的優勢,以及我們製造和服務運營中的穩健執行和成本管理。12 月當季營收為 8.77 億美元。非公認會計準則每股攤薄收益為 1.52 美元,以 21% 的指導稅率計算,每股稀釋收益為 1.57 美元。每股 GAAP 收益也為 1.52 美元。

  • In our press release, you will find a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP diluted earnings per share. With the exception of when I explicitly refer to GAAP results, my commentary will be focused on the non-GAAP results which exclude the adjustments covered in the press release.

    在我們的新聞稿中,您將看到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 稀釋每股盈餘的對帳。除明確提及 GAAP 結果外,我的評論將集中於非 GAAP 結果,其中不包括新聞稿中涵蓋的調整。

  • Now, turning to highlights of the December quarter demand environment. Although we are no longer guiding quarterly orders, we will continue to share our perspective on the quarterly -- current quarterly end market demand picture to give investors insight into industry trends and KLA-Tencor's performance. We eventually plan to provide end market mixed detail for shipments results and guidance and expect to have that information available once we complete an upgrade of our internal analysis systems some time in the coming few quarters. At that time, all end market customer mix, business segment, and regional breakdowns will be provided on a shipment basis. In the interim, we will continue to provide additional detail on order mix by end market.

    現在,讓我們來談談 12 月季度需求環境的亮點。雖然我們不再指導季度訂單,但我們將繼續分享我們對季度的看法——當前季度終端市場需求狀況,讓投資者深入了解行業趨勢和 KLA-Tencor 的表現。我們最終計劃為終端市場提供出貨量結果和指導的混合細節,並期望在未來幾季內完成內部分析系統升級後能夠提供這些資訊。屆時,所有終端市場客戶組合、業務部門和區域細分都將以出貨量為基礎提供。在此期間,我們將繼續提供按終端市場劃分的訂單組合的更多詳細資訊。

  • New orders in the December quarter were approximately $1.1 billion. Memory was 61% of new orders and in line with our forecast for the quarter. Demand was roughly evenly split between DRAM and NAND. We are currently modeling memory orders to be 34% of the total in the March quarter. Foundry was 37% of new system orders in December, also as expected, and foundry is forecasted to grow to 63% of orders in March. We are currently modeling solid growth in foundry orders in the first half of calendar 2017 fueled by 10-nanometer production and 7-nanometer development for multiple foundry customers and by continued investment in legacy technology nodes. Logic was 2% of new system orders and is currently forecasted to be at a comparable level in the March quarter.

    12 月季度的新訂單約為 11 億美元。記憶體佔新訂單的 61%,符合我們對本季的預測。DRAM 和 NAND 的需求大致平均分配。我們目前預計 3 月季度記憶體訂單量將佔總訂單量的 34%。12 月份,晶圓代工佔新系統訂單的 37%,也符合預期,預計 3 月份晶圓代工訂單將成長至 63%。目前,我們預計 2017 年上半年代工訂單將穩健成長,這得益於多家代工客戶的 10 奈米生產和 7 奈米開發,以及對傳統技術節點的持續投資。邏輯佔新系統訂單的 2%,目前預計與 3 月季度持平。

  • In terms of the approximate distribution of orders by product group for the fourth quarter, wafer inspection was 45% of new system orders. Patterning was 35%. Patterning includes orders from our reticle inspection business. Service was 18%, and non-SEMI was approximately 2%. New orders in the first half of calendar year 2017 are expected to be roughly flat compared with the second half of calendar 2016.

    就第四季按產品組劃分的訂單大致分佈而言,晶圓檢測佔新系統訂單的45%。圖案化率為35%。圖案化包括來自我們的光罩檢測業務的訂單。服務業佔18%,非SEMI佔約2%。預計2017年上半年新訂單量與2016年下半年基本持平。

  • Total shipments were $887 million in the quarter and just above the guided range for the quarter of $800 million to $880 million. Looking forward, we are modeling March quarter shipments to be approximately flat at the midpoint compared with December and be in a range of $850 million to $930 million. Our current build plans are supporting quarterly shipment levels at or around $900 million for the next few quarters.

    本季總出貨量為 8.87 億美元,略高於本季 8 億至 8.8 億美元的指引範圍。展望未來,我們預計 3 月季度的出貨量與 12 月相比中期大致持平,介於 8.5 億美元至 9.3 億美元之間。我們目前的生產計劃支持未來幾季的季度出貨量達到或接近 9 億美元。

  • Turning now to the income statement. As I mentioned in my highlights, revenue was $877 million in December finishing above the range of guidance. We expect revenue to be in the range of $860 million to $920 million in the March quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was 63.8% and a new quarterly record for the Company. The better-than-modeled gross margin performance in December was largely a function of strong product mix on the incremental revenue delivered in the quarter and operating leverage in our manufacturing and service operations. We expect gross margin to be in the range of 62% to 63% in the March quarter, down slightly versus the December quarter due principally to the mix of products we plan to revenue in the quarter.

    現在來看損益表。正如我在重點介紹中提到的那樣,12 月份的收入為 8.77 億美元,高於預期範圍。我們預計 3 月季度的營收將在 8.6 億美元至 9.2 億美元之間。非公認會計準則毛利率為 63.8%,創下公司季新高。12 月毛利率表現優於預期,這主要得益於本季強勁的產品組合、增量收入以及製造和服務業務的營運槓桿。我們預計 3 月季度的毛利率將在 62% 至 63% 之間,較 12 月季度略有下降,這主要歸因於我們計劃在本季度實現收入的產品組合。

  • Going forward, we expect to deliver gross margin results 200 basis points above our published business model targets due to a number of factors including product positioning, new product introduction execution, and cost management. We are currently forecasting gross margins in calendar 2017 to be approximately 62%, plus or minus 50 basis points. Total non-GAAP operating expenses were $221 million, flat compared with September, and non-GAAP operating margin was 38.6%. We are modeling operating expense levels of between $220 million and $225 million in the March quarter and in a range of $900 million and $920 million for the full year in calendar 2017.

    展望未來,我們預期毛利率將比我們公佈的商業模式目標高出 200 個基點,這得益於產品定位、新產品推出執行和成本管理等多種因素。我們目前預測 2017 年的毛利率約為 62%,上下浮動 50 個基點。非公認會計準則總營運費用為 2.21 億美元,與 9 月持平,非公認會計準則營運利潤率為 38.6%。我們預計 3 月季度的營運費用水準將在 2.2 億美元至 2.25 億美元之間,2017 年全年的營運費用水準將在 9 億美元至 9.2 億美元之間。

  • Given our gross margin expectations, we continue to deliver operating margins at the upper end or above our published model for the foreseeable future. Our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 23.5% in the quarter, above our previously guided long-term planning rate of 21%, reflecting the higher mix of revenue from products manufactured in the US and other discrete items impacting the tax rate. We are planning for this product mix trend to continue through calendar 2017 which will put some pressure on the tax rate. You should assume a 22% tax rate going forward for modeling purposes. Finally, net income for the December quarter was $238 million, and we ended the quarter with 157 million fully diluted shares outstanding.

    鑑於我們的毛利率預期,在可預見的未來,我們將繼續實現我們已公佈模型的上限或以上的營業利潤率。本季我們的非公認會計準則有效稅率為 23.5%,高於我們先前指導的長期計畫稅率 21%,這反映了美國製造的產品收入和其他影響稅率的單獨項目的收入組合較高。我們計劃讓這種產品組合趨勢持續到 2017 年,這將對稅率帶來一些壓力。為了建模目的,您應該假設未來的稅率為 22%。最後,12 月季度的淨收入為 2.38 億美元,本季結束時我們擁有 1.57 億股完全稀釋流通股。

  • I'll turn now to highlights from the balance sheet and our cash flow statement. Cash and investments ended the quarter at $2.6 billion, an increase of approximately $100 million compared with the September quarter. Cash from operations was $222 million in the quarter, and free cash flow was $214 million. In December, we paid an aggregate of $85 million in regular quarterly dividends and dividend equivalents for fully vested restricted stock units and made a supplemental payment of $40 million towards our outstanding term loan. To date, the total amount of payments of principal on our term loan have amounted -- has amounted to approximately $254 million since it was added in the December quarter of 2014.

    現在我將討論資產負債表和現金流量表中的重點內容。本季末,現金和投資為 26 億美元,與 9 月季度相比增加約 1 億美元。本季經營現金流為 2.22 億美元,自由現金流為 2.14 億美元。12 月份,我們支付了總計 8,500 萬美元的定期季度股息和完全歸屬限制性股票單位的股息等價物,並補充支付了 4,000 萬美元用於償還未償還的定期貸款。到目前為止,自 2014 年 12 月季度增加以來,我們的定期貸款本金支付總額已達到約 2.54 億美元。

  • In conclusion, KLA-Tencor's results in December reflect our market leadership, the critical nature of process control and our customers' growth strategies at the leading edge and in legacy design rules, and our industry-leading business model. This, coupled with almost $1.1 billion in new orders in the December quarter, position the Company for strong relative growth versus the wafer fab equipment market in calendar year 2017. Current forecasts are for the wafer fab equipment market to grow mid-single-digits in 2017. Against this industry backdrop, we are modeling the Company's revenue to grow slightly better than the broader market.

    總之,KLA-Tencor 12 月的業績反映了我們的市場領導地位、工藝控制的關鍵性質以及我們客戶在前沿和傳統設計規則方面的成長策略,以及我們行業領先的商業模式。再加上 12 月季度近 11 億美元的新訂單,該公司將在 2017 年度實現晶圓廠設備市場的強勁成長。目前預測,2017年晶圓廠設備市場將達到中位數個位數成長。在這樣的產業背景下,我們預測公司的營收成長將略好於大盤。

  • This performance demonstrates the Company's market leadership, the strong customer acceptance of a portfolio solutions addressing the most critical yield requirements at the leading edge, and our operational core competencies. Given our record backlog and expectations for new orders, KLA-Tencor is well positioned for another year of solid growth in 2017. With that, to reiterate our guidance for the March quarter is shipments in the range of $850 million to $930 million, revenue between $860 million and $920 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.42 to $1.62 per share with GAAP EPS of $1.40 to $1.60 per share. This concludes our remarks on the quarter. I will now turn the call back over to Ed to begin the Q&A.

    這項業績證明了公司的市場領導地位、客戶對滿足最關鍵產量要求的解決方案組合的強烈接受度以及我們的營運核心競爭力。鑑於我們創紀錄的積壓訂單和對新訂單的預期,KLA-Tencor 已做好準備,在 2017 年再次實現穩健成長。在此,重申我們對 3 月季度的預期:出貨量在 8.5 億美元至 9.3 億美元之間,收入在 8.6 億美元至 9.2 億美元之間,非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 1.42 美元至 1.62 美元,GAAP 每股收益為 1.40 美元至 1.60 美元。我們對本季的評論到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給 Ed,開始問答環節。

  • Ed Lockwood - Senior Director of IR

    Ed Lockwood - Senior Director of IR

  • Okay. Thank you, Bren. At this point, we would like to open up the call for questions, and we once again request that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up given the limited time we have for today's call. Feel free to re-queue for your follow-up questions, and we'll do our best to give everyone a chance to participate in today's call as time permits. Marianna, we are ready for the first question.

    好的。謝謝你,布倫。現在,我們想開始提問,鑑於今天電話會議的時間有限,我們再次請求您將問題限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上。歡迎隨時重新排隊以提出您的後續問題,我們將盡力讓每個人都有機會在時間允許的情況下參加今天的電話會議。瑪麗安娜,我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Your first question comes from the line of Tim Arcuri of Cowen and Co.

    您的第一個問題來自 Cowen and Co. 的 Tim Arcuri。

  • Tim Arcuri - Analyst

    Tim Arcuri - Analyst

  • Thank you. Rick, I wanted to get a sense of -- obviously, memory orders were really, really strong in the quarter. You had talked about that being the case. Is that more cyclical? Or, is there something secular going on? I'm particularly asking about 3D NAND because it seems like you maybe are preparing a new solution that's going to help improve yields there? So, I'm sort of wondering what your outlook generally is for how your exposure is going to grow in memory? Thanks.

    謝謝。里克,我想了解一下——顯然,本季度的記憶體訂單非常非常強勁。您曾談論過這種情況。這是否更具週期性?或者,有什麼世俗的事情正在發生?我特別詢問 3D NAND,因為看起來您可能正在準備一種有助於提高產量的新解決方案?所以,我有點好奇,你對於你的曝光度在記憶中會如何成長有什麼看法?謝謝。

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • Thanks, Tim. We've had some success recently with 3D NAND. I think, both in terms of existing products, which we're finding more application as our customers -- first, the technology is being more broadly deployed by our customer base. And, the second is some of the yield challenges they are facing. We think later in the calendar year we'll actually have more offerings to support 3D NAND. So, we think if we execute properly, by the end of 2017, we should have a larger adoption of inspection in 3D NAND. We think that there's an upside to our current levels of concentration now.

    謝謝,蒂姆。我們最近在 3D NAND 方面取得了一些成功。我認為,就現有產品而言,我們作為客戶正在發現更多的應用——首先,該技術正在被我們的客戶群更廣泛地部署。第二是他們面臨的一些產量挑戰。我們認為,今年稍後我們將推出更多支援 3D NAND 的產品。因此,我們認為,如果執行得當,到 2017 年底,我們應該在 3D NAND 中更廣泛地採用檢查。我們認為,我們目前的集中度水準還有上升空間。

  • Tim Arcuri - Analyst

    Tim Arcuri - Analyst

  • Thanks for that. And then, Bren, a question for you. Everybody else likes to put up these financial models and link their revenue to wafer fab equipment. I know it's a little harder for you because it depends on mix, but if WFE is going to be $37 billion, yesterday Lam talked about that. Can you talk a little bit -- can you try to map for us WFE, or your revenue relative to WFE? It seems like if you don't gain any share at all -- it seems like you could do $3.7 billion pretty easily in a $37 billion environment. So, I'm wondering if you can map revenue -- your model to WFE? Thanks.

    謝謝。然後,布倫,問你一個問題。其他人都喜歡提出這些財務模型並將其收入與晶圓廠設備聯繫起來。我知道這對你來說有點難,因為這取決於組合,但如果 WFE 要達到 370 億美元,昨天 Lam 已經談到了這一點。您能否稍微談談 - 您能否嘗試為我們繪製 WFE 或相對於 WFE 的收入?看起來如果你根本沒有獲得任何份額——那麼在 370 億美元的環境中你似乎可以輕鬆賺到 37 億美元。所以,我想知道您是否可以將收入——您的模型對應到 WFE?謝謝。

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • Tim, it's a good question. As we look at calendar 2017, we think WFE is probably up somewhere in the mid-single-digits. When we do our math, we end up somewhere around $36 billion. Against that backdrop, as I said in the prepared remarks, we think that we should do better than the broader market. So, somewhere in a high single-digit growth rate versus calendar 2016. We feel pretty good about that. I also said in the prepared remarks that over the next few quarters we expect that we'll be shipping consistently in and around $900 million. I think as we get further out into the second half of the year through December -- I've got pretty good visibility to my build plans through September, and as we get to December we'll see how the second half order book ultimately fills out. But, I think we're in a position for a good year, and I think depending on how the second half plays out particularly around December, the numbers that you're mentioning aren't inconceivable to see if that were to play out that way. But, I think as of now as I said based on a mid-single-digit-type growth rate, we think we should do better than the broader industry for a second consecutive year.

    提姆,這是個好問題。當我們回顧 2017 年日曆時,我們認為 WFE 可能會上漲到中等個位數左右。讓我們計算一下,最終結果大約是 360 億美元。在這種背景下,正如我在準備好的演講中所說,我們認為我們應該比大盤做得更好。因此,與 2016 年相比,成長率處於較高的個位數。我們對此感覺很好。我在準備好的發言中也說過,在接下來的幾個季度裡,我們預計我們的出貨量將穩定在 9 億美元左右。我認為,隨著我們進入下半年,即 12 月,我對 9 月份的建設計劃有了相當清晰的了解,而隨著我們進入 12 月,我們將看到下半年訂單簿最終如何填寫。但是,我認為我們今年的業績會很好,而且我認為,這取決於下半年的表現,特別是 12 月左右的表現,如果按照這樣的方式發展,您提到的數字並不難以想像。但是,我認為,正如我所說,基於中等個位數的成長率,我們認為我們應該連續第二年比整個產業做得更好。

  • Tim Arcuri - Analyst

    Tim Arcuri - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Farhan Ahmad of Credit Suisse.

    您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Analyst

    Farhan Ahmad - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is on EUV. Rick, you mentioned that you're seeing good activity for Gen 5 being deployed both for OPC and EUV development. Can you talk about what progress you are seeing there, and how far along do you think you are in the qualification process? And, is that something that can materialize in 2018 in a meaningful way?

    你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於 EUV 的。里克,您提到您看到 Gen 5 在 OPC 和 EUV 開發方面的部署情況良好。您能談談您在那裡看到了什麼進展嗎?您認為您的資格認證流程進行到哪一步了?那麼,這是否能在 2018 年以有意義的方式實現呢?

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • Farhan, thanks. Yes, EUV, we've had some momentum based on the fact that there's more activity going on in the development now at multiple places, multiple sites for our customers. And also, the fact that Gen 5 is now out and being deployed especially in the area of qualifying the images that are being printed by EUV lithography. I also mentioned that in mask we have some success with the 6xx platform that we have serving the EUV mask qualification market, and we think that as the activity continues to pick up on EUV that that part of our business should grow over the next couple of years. With the expectations of high volume manufacturing of EUV by 2019 or 2020, we'll continue to see ramping of those capabilities, and we'll move from characterization to be more part of the production flow as we get into those out-years. We should see adoption of things like Gen 5 especially in the back end of the line supporting the ramps -- middle end and back end of the line supporting ramps as EUV comes into production.

    Farhan,謝謝。是的,EUV,我們已經獲得了一些發展動力,因為現在我們在多個地方、多個站點為客戶進行了更多的開發活動。此外,第五代技術現已問世,並被特別部署在 EUV 光刻技術印刷的影像鑑定領域。我還提到,在掩模方面,我們在服務於 EUV 掩模資格市場的 6xx 平台上取得了一些成功,我們認為,隨著 EUV 活動的持續升溫,我們業務的這一部分應該會在未來幾年內增長。我們預計 2019 年或 2020 年 EUV 將會實現量產,我們將繼續看到這些能力的提升,並且隨著我們進入未來幾年,我們將從特性描述轉向成為生產流程的更多組成部分。我們應該看到 Gen 5 之類的技術被採用,特別是在 EUV 投入生產時支援坡道的生產線後端 - 中端和生產線後端支援坡道。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Analyst

    Farhan Ahmad - Analyst

  • Thank you. And then, one question on the 3D NAND product that you mentioned for back half of the year. Could you give us some sense of how big is the growth opportunity for you in 3D NAND? Maybe just in terms of what portion of the market do you address currently, and what sort of opportunity the new products can bring?

    謝謝。然後,關於您提到的上半年的 3D NAND 產品有一個問題。您能否告訴我們 3D NAND 帶給您的成長機會有多大?也許只是就您目前所針對的市場部分以及新產品可以帶來什麼樣的機會而言?

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • Well, Farhan, I think you know we've talked about essentially memory being at about 50% the adoption rate of foundry in terms of process control adoption. However, it stands to grow faster in many respects for two reasons. One, it looks like there's more capability certainly that we can bring to solve some existing problems that people are not using process control to solve right now and that I think we can grow that adoption. So, we think that the adoption rate -- or the process control intensity grows in 3D NAND depending on how much ongoing investment there is that sets that market size. But, we think it can contribute to our overall outperformance of the industry. 3D NAND -- recently process control intensity has kind of mapped to what 2D planar was as some of the complexity of the process is being understood by our customers. So, for us, there's not really a big difference in process control intensity for planar versus 3D NAND as 3D NAND is actually picking up for us as we go forward.

    嗯,Farhan,我想你知道我們已經討論過,就工藝控制採用而言,內存在代工廠的採用率大約是 50%。然而,由於兩個原因,它在許多方面都將增長得更快。首先,看起來我們確實可以帶來更多的能力來解決人們現在沒有使用製程控制來解決的一些現有問題,而且我認為我們可以擴大這種採用。因此,我們認為 3D NAND 的採用率或製程控制強度的成長取決於決定市場規模的持續投資量。但我們認為它可以為我們在行業中的整體表現做出貢獻。3D NAND—最近,製程控制強度已經與 2D 平面有所相似,因為我們的客戶已經了解了流程的一些複雜性。因此,對我們來說,平面 NAND 和 3D NAND 的工藝控制強度並沒有太大區別,因為隨著我們不斷前進,3D NAND 實際上正在逐漸普及。

  • Farhan Ahmad - Analyst

    Farhan Ahmad - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you that's all I had.

    知道了。謝謝,這就是我所擁有的一切。

  • Ed Lockwood - Senior Director of IR

    Ed Lockwood - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

    您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Good afternoon and congratulations on the solid results and record bookings. On the profitability profile, assuming you slightly outgrow the WFE market this year that would imply roughly $3.5 billion in revenues. You drove 38% operating margins in December. 38% operating margins implied within your guidance in March. You've given us your views on gross margins for the year and your level of OpEx which would imply operating margins in that 36% to 37% range. In the last earnings call, you talked me down to a level of 35%-ish. But, should we expect 36% to 37% operating margins on the parameters that you just gave us today? Is that the right way to think about it?

    下午好,恭喜您取得的堅實成績和創紀錄的預訂。在獲利狀況方面,假設今年 WFE 市場略有成長,則意味著收入約為 35 億美元。12 月份您的營業利益率達到了 38%。您 3 月的預期暗示營業利益率為 38%。您已經向我們介紹了您對今年毛利率和營運支出水準的看法,這意味著營運利潤率將在 36% 至 37% 之間。在上次財報電話會議上,你把我的利率降到了 35% 左右。但是,根據您今天剛提供的參數,我們是否應該預期營業利潤率為 36% 至 37%?這是正確的思考方式嗎?

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • Harlan, it's Bren. In the prepared remarks, I wanted -- as we head into a New Year is to give a little bit more perspective on how we're sizing the business. We've been doing, obviously, a lot of work on our strategic planning so we've got a deeper view and understanding of the mix of business going forward around certain products. And, of course, the backlog at the level does give us pretty good visibility as we move through the year. So, I wanted to go ahead and provide some of that information. I think the numbers that you're coming up with seem to make sense based on the numbers I provided. I think in terms of how we're sizing the business, I don't see how that changes very much going forward. Significant swings would cause it to go up and down, but in terms of where we're at today versus what we expect -- I don't think that will change all that much. Gross margin is always a little bit -- with a business like ours and the mix of products we have -- depending on the mix of products can have some influence on gross margin both directions. But, the way you're thinking about it I think makes sense, and given the funnel and where we're loaded today, I feel pretty comfortable with the guidance I provided.

    哈蘭,我是布倫。在準備好的發言中,我希望——在我們即將進入新的一年之際,能夠更多地了解我們如何調整業務規模。顯然,我們在策略規劃方面做了大量工作,因此我們對未來某些產品的業務組合有了更深入的了解和理解。當然,隨著一年的推進,該級別的積壓確實為我們提供了很好的可視性。所以,我想繼續提供一些資訊。我認為根據我提供的數字,您得出的數字似乎是有意義的。我認為,就我們如何確定業務規模而言,我認為未來不會發生太大的變化。大幅波動會導致其上下波動,但就我們目前的狀況與我們的預期而言,我認為這不會發生太大變化。毛利率總是有一點的——對於我們這樣的企業和我們擁有的產品組合來說——取決於產品組合會對毛利率產生一些影響。但是,我認為你的想法是有道理的,考慮到管道和我們今天的狀況,我對我提供的指導感到非常滿意。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks for the insights there. You had a record year FY16 from China. Seems like there's more China domestic foundry spending coming online this year. Question is, is China still a tail wind for KLA this calendar year? And, even though these are more legacy-type nodes like 20-nanometers -- are these guys still tending to buy up the stack and purchasing your latest Gen 4 tools which we obviously know have the richer ASPs?

    偉大的。感謝您的見解。2016 財年,中國市場創下了歷史新高。看來今年中國國內代工支出將會增加。問題是,今年中國是否仍是科索沃解放軍的順風?而且,儘管這些是像 20 奈米這樣的更傳統的節點,這些人是否仍然傾向於購買堆疊併購買最新的 Gen 4 工具(我們顯然知道它們具有更豐富的 ASP)?

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • They're investing for not only the nodes that they are starting on, but they're also trying to invest to be able to migrate those nodes as they go forward. They expect to continue to migrate their design rules down so the answer is yes. They are not buying Gen 5, but they are buying -- we're seeing Gen 4 purchases. And also, I think, for the metrology challenges they feel like they are going to face, we're having pretty good penetration there so we feel good about China. As it goes forward, it feels pretty sustainable based on the conversations we're having with customers and the success we've had to date there.

    他們不僅對正在啟動的節點進行投資,而且還試圖投資以便能夠在未來遷移這些節點。他們希望繼續降低他們的設計規則,所以答案是肯定的。他們沒有購買第五代產品,但他們正在購買——我們看到了第四代產品的購買。而且我認為,對於他們將要面臨的計量挑戰,我們在那裡有相當好的滲透率,所以我們對中國充滿信心。隨著業務的推進,根據我們與客戶的對話以及迄今為止的成功,我們感覺這種模式相當具有可持續性。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • Harlan, the other thing I would add is the second half of 2016 was a little bit slower in China so there was some digestion. But, as we look at calendar 2017 from an order perspective, I think China -- indigenous China or native China business will be up pretty significantly from what we experienced in 2016. To Rick's point, across a number of nodes and very foundry-logic centric. Don't expect to see much memory investment in 2017. I think that's more of an 2018 event. But, we think China is one of these factors of why we think, at least for us, as we look at foundry business into 2017 that we've got an up profile from not just the diversity of other customers investing at the leading edge but what's happening here.

    哈蘭,我想補充的另一件事是,2016 年下半年中國市場的發展稍微慢了一些,因此需要一些消化。但是,當我們從訂單角度來看 2017 年曆時,我認為中國——中國本土或中國本土業務將比 2016 年有大幅成長。正如 Rick 所說,跨越多個節點並且非常以代工邏輯為中心。預計 2017 年不會有太多的記憶體投資。我認為這更像是 2018 年的事件。但是,我們認為中國是我們認為的這些因素之一,至少對我們來說,當我們展望2017年的代工業務時,我們會發現不僅有其他客戶在前沿領域投資的多樣性,而且這裡正在發生的事情也讓我們的形像有所提升。

  • Harlan Sur - Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    偉大的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Edwin Mok of Needham & Company.

    您的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok。

  • Edwin Mok - Analyst

    Edwin Mok - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my questions. First question I have is on your mask inspection product. You talk about how as customers [ramp] EUV you are seeing some demand for the 666 product. I'm curious, is there a way for us to think about that? [Talking] about how many [chews] they are shipping this year, and is there a way to think about how much capacity the customer would need as they take these EUV tools?

    你好,謝謝你回答我的問題。我的第一個問題是關於你們的面罩檢測產品。您談到隨著客戶採用 EUV,您看到了對 666 產品的一些需求。我很好奇,我們有辦法思考這個問題嗎?[談論]他們今年要出貨多少台,有沒有辦法考慮客戶在使用這些 EUV 工具時需要多少產能?

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • Well, historically, there's been a ratio of about -- we used to model about 10 scanners for a reticle tool, but sometimes that could be front-end loaded when there is -- we are doing development work. Part of what's interesting about the scanners is a lot of the scanners that are in the field today weren't driving much capacity because I don't think they were really pushing designs very much on the EUV capabilities. We're seeing more advanced designs now on EUV. So, I do think that if we go back to that ratio, that's not a bad model even though we aren't at wavelength with this reticle tool it does seem to be tracking relatively consistent with that.

    嗯,從歷史上看,比例大約是 - 我們曾經為一個標線工具建模大約 10 個掃描儀,但有時可能會在前端加載 - 我們正在進行開發工作。關於掃描器的有趣之處部分在於,目前現場的許多掃描器並沒有帶來太大的容量,因為我認為它們並沒有真正在 EUV 功能上推動設計。我們現在在 EUV 上看到了更多先進的設計。因此,我確實認為,如果我們回到那個比率,那不是一個糟糕的模型,即使我們沒有用這個標線工具達到波長,但它似乎確實與該波長追蹤相對一致。

  • Edwin Mok - Analyst

    Edwin Mok - Analyst

  • Okay. Actually, that's helpful color there. And then, another question I have is one of your peers yesterday talked about a bigger falloff in the WFE in the second half of this year, and they associated with being more front-end loaded on spending. I'm curious, are you seeing the same trend in the industry? Do you expect similar trend for your shipments for this year?

    好的。事實上,那是一種很有幫助的顏色。然後,我的另一個問題是,昨天您的一位同事談到了今年下半年 WFE 的更大跌幅,並且他們認為這與前期支出的增加有關。我很好奇,您是否在業界看到了同樣的趨勢?您預計今年的出貨量也會出現類似的趨勢嗎?

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • Yes, I think the second half looks maybe marginally weaker from a shipment perspective than the first half. We're talking about a very low, single-digit percentage today so that could change pretty quickly. I don't see it as a pronounced shift. And then, when I look through to revenue, I think revenue is half-to-half in terms of how I'm modeling today with the WFE assumptions I talked about earlier somewhat flattish. I don't think it's a significant downtick, and I think a lot of it also depends on what happens in the second half of the year around some of these other the timing of some of these other investments. I think 7-nanometer development could be a wild card for us that could strengthen into the second half, and we just don't have a lot of visibility into some of that incremental business yet.

    是的,我認為從出貨量的角度來看,下半年可能比上半年略弱。我們今天談論的是一個非常低的個位數百分比,因此這種情況可能會很快改變。我並不認為這是一個明顯的轉變。然後,當我查看收入時,我認為收入是一半一半的,就我今天用我之前談到的 WFE 假設建模而言,收入有些平緩。我認為這不是一個顯著的下滑,我認為這很大程度上還取決於下半年其他一些投資的時機情況。我認為 7 奈米的開發對我們來說可能是一個未知數,可能會在下半年增強,但我們對其中一些增量業務還沒有太多的了解。

  • Edwin Mok - Analyst

    Edwin Mok - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Steven Chin of UBS.

    您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Steven Chin。

  • Neil Konigsberg - Analyst

    Neil Konigsberg - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks for taking my question. This is Neil on for Steve. I actually have a question on image sensor customers. We've seen some higher equipment sales than in the past. I'm wondering if you're seeing anything with customers that can give us some sort of outlook on sales to image sensor customers?

    你好。感謝您回答我的問題。尼爾代替史蒂夫發言。我實際上對影像感測器客戶有一個疑問。我們看到一些設備的銷量比過去有所提高。我想知道您是否從客戶那裡了解到一些情況,可以為我們提供一些關於影像感測器客戶銷售前景的展望?

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • Image sensor, is that what you're asking?

    影像感測器,這是您要問的嗎?

  • Neil Konigsberg - Analyst

    Neil Konigsberg - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • I'm sorry, your voice broke up a bit. We have had good participation from, in general I think about the IoT, the automotive markets -- image sensor is kind of in that category of IoT stuff. That's actually been pretty good for us. Often what we see there is, if you think about Gen 4 it's more like in the inspection product line it might be Gen 3 products supporting that. But, it's relatively episodic so you'll get somebody that's investing for a particular capacity demand. So, we can't count on it every year, but it's actually been pretty good business when it comes along, and I think we work closely with those customers to support them when they are bringing out new technology so that's been a steady part of our business over the last couple of years.

    抱歉,你的聲音有點斷斷續續。整體而言,我們在物聯網、汽車市場方面都有很好的參與度——影像感測器屬於物聯網產品類別。這對我們來說確實非常好。我們經常看到的是,如果您考慮 Gen 4,它更像是在檢查產品線中,它可能是支援它的 Gen 3 產品。但是,它是相對偶然的,所以你會找到為特定容量需求而投資的人。所以,我們不能每年都依賴它,但當它出現時,它實際上是一個相當不錯的業務,而且我認為我們與這些客戶密切合作,在他們推出新技術時為他們提供支持,所以這在過去幾年裡一直是我們業務的一個穩定組成部分。

  • Neil Konigsberg - Analyst

    Neil Konigsberg - Analyst

  • Thank you and one follow-up. Another trend we've been seeing is higher customer demand for 200-millimeter equipment. Can you talk about maybe the mix that 200-millimeter equipment makes up for your sales? And, maybe comment on this type of services revenue that you get for 200-millimeter customers?

    謝謝,還有後續事宜。我們看到的另一個趨勢是客戶對 200 毫米設備的需求越來越高。您能否談談 200 毫米設備對您的銷售的影響?並且,也許您可以評論一下您為 200 毫米客戶提供的此類服務收入?

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • Yes, I think that one of the surprises I'd say for the last several years is the fact that 200-millimeter, two things have happened. One, those fabs are being extended longer and so what we're seeing is part of the supporting those customers is our service business grows. And, we would have expected in a general transition to be down almost zero in terms of percent of 200-millimeter, and I'd say probably it's 5% to 10% of our business in systems now can be approaching 200. There are also some older fabs on 300 so I kind of look at it more as the lagging technology. But, yes, there's business in the 200-millimeter that continues to get developed. They aren't very big purchasers of capital, but there are often KLA-Tencor tools there. Part of our business there is upgrading capability and supporting them as they go forward.

    是的,我認為過去幾年中最令人驚訝的事情之一就是 200 毫米發生了兩件事。首先,這些晶圓廠的營運時間正在延長,因此,我們看到,對這些客戶的支援部分導致了我們服務業務的成長。而且,我們原本預期在整體轉型過程中,200 毫米的比例幾乎會下降為零,我想說,現在我們系統業務中大概有 5% 到 10% 可以接近 200 毫米。300 上也有一些較老的晶圓廠,所以我認為這更像是一種落後的技術。但是,200 毫米的業務確實在持續發展。他們並不是很大的資本購買者,但那裡經常有 KLA-Tencor 工具。我們的業務之一就是提升他們的能力並支持他們不斷前進。

  • Neil Konigsberg - Analyst

    Neil Konigsberg - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from, I apologize. (Operator Instructions)

    您的下一個問題來自,我很抱歉。(操作員指示)

  • Your next question comes from Patrick Ho of Stifel Nicolaus.

    您的下一個問題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 Patrick Ho。

  • Patrick Ho - Analyst

    Patrick Ho - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. Rick, a big picture question. The last time you -- when we went through the industry ramp of 28-nanometers, you saw a large buying spree particularly from the leading edge. But, one that also continued for several years. As we begin this transition to 10- and 7-nanometers, what is your perception of that node and could it be as large as the 28-nanometers which will give you not only a near-term boost but also one that's more sustainable.

    非常感謝。里克,這是一個大問題。上次我們經歷 28 奈米的行業發展時,您會看到大量購買狂潮,尤其是來自前沿領域的購買狂潮。但這種情況也持續了好幾年。當我們開始向 10 奈米和 7 奈米過渡時,您對該節點有何看法?它是否可以像 28 奈米一樣大,這不僅會給您帶來短期提升,而且還會帶來更永續的提升。

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • It certainly feels that way. When we talk to customers, there are now multiple customers that are playing at seven nanometers and really no significant buys for seven right now. There's 10-nanometer buys that are going to be applied to 7 later. So, I think we're early days on seven, but it does feel like there will be a wave of multiple players trying to pursue that node. It's very hard for us to size it in general, but our customers seem very enthusiastic because it's a node that gives both performance and also economics value to our customers. And, there are multiple designs being started on seven so we feel pretty good about the extendability of that node and the support for our business as we go forward.

    確實有這樣的感覺。當我們與客戶交談時,我們發現現在有多個客戶正在使用 7 奈米工藝,但目前實際上沒有大規模購買 7 奈米製程的產品。10 奈米的採購稍後將應用於 7 奈米。所以,我認為我們才剛開始探索第七個節點,但感覺將會有一波多玩家試圖追求這個節點。整體來說,我們很難確定它的規模,但我們的客戶似乎非常熱情,因為這個節點既能為我們的客戶提供效能,又能為我們的客戶提供經濟價值。並且,七個節點上已經開始了多項設計,因此我們對該節點的可擴展性以及未來對我們業務的支援感到非常滿意。

  • Patrick Ho - Analyst

    Patrick Ho - Analyst

  • Great. That's helpful. And maybe, Bren, in terms of OpEx going forward, I think in your prepared remarks you talked about some of the new opportunities and some investments particularly as EUV gets more traction with customers out in the field. How do we look at overall R&D spending as it relates to EUV versus what you presented in your long-term model.

    偉大的。這很有幫助。布倫,也許就未來的營運支出而言,我認為您在準備好的演講中談到了一些新的機會和一些投資,特別是隨著 EUV 在該領域越來越受到客戶的關注。與您在長期模型中提出的情況相比,我們如何看待與 EUV 相關的整體研發支出。

  • Bren Higgins - CFO

    Bren Higgins - CFO

  • Well, we're absolutely investing more. As you look at the numbers that are provided in the prepared remarks, we do think given the revenue level we have, we think the opportunities that are out there -- there is an opportunity for us to invest in some of these capabilities. Not just in the EUV, but Rick talked about 3D NAND earlier so there's some opportunities there. In terms of EUV, there is some work going on, but as we've said -- and I'm sure Rick can add more to this. But, as we've said over the last couple of years or so, that any substantial investments to support EUV at least around the reticle side of things that we would be looking for customer participation just due to the business model dynamics there. But, in terms of being able to drive higher levels of sensitivity through our product portfolio to be able to address what should be good opportunities for linear scaling again in an EUV environment, we're continuing to invest as we always have to deliver that capability.

    嗯,我們絕對會投入更多。當您查看準備好的評論中提供的數字時,我們確實認為,考慮到我們的收入水平,我們認為存在著機會——我們有機會對其中一些能力進行投資。不僅僅是在 EUV 領域,Rick 之前還談到了 3D NAND,所以那裡也有一些機會。在 EUV 方面,有一些工作正在進行中,但正如我們所說的那樣 - 而且我相信 Rick 可以對此進行更多補充。但是,正如我們在過去幾年中所說的那樣,任何支持 EUV 的實質投資至少在光罩方面,我們都會尋求客戶的參與,這只是因為那裡的商業模式動態。但是,就能夠透過我們的產品組合推動更高水準的靈敏度,以便能夠解決在 EUV 環境中再次實現線性擴展的良好機會而言,我們將繼續投資,因為我們必須始終提供這種能力。

  • Patrick Ho - Analyst

    Patrick Ho - Analyst

  • Great, thank you.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Atif Malik from Citigroup.

    您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的阿蒂夫馬利克 (Atif Malik)。

  • Atif Malik - Analyst

    Atif Malik - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks for taking my question, and good job on the results and guide. Rick, if I look at the size of the GPUs, the graphic processors, they're about 2x to 5x bigger than an A10 application processor. Are you seeing demand for your tools increase as there are intrinsically lowers yields on bigger die sizes -- the penetration of high performance computing and the gaming?

    你好。感謝您回答我的問題,結果和指南做得很好。里克,如果我看一下 GPU 的尺寸,即圖形處理器,它們大約比 A10 應用處理器大 2 倍到 5 倍。您是否發現對您的工具的需求正在增加,因為更大尺寸的晶片本質上會降低產量——高效能運算和遊戲的普及?

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • Great question. We're, I think, in the early days of some of those designs playing out at 10-nanometers. Certainly, the adoption level of process control at 10-nanometers in support of those new GPUs is higher than it has been at prior nodes. The question will be what happens when those ramp in terms of does the intensity come back to more historic numbers. I think that will depend a lot on the customers actual experience in terms of how they perform and what kind of yield they get. But, to your point, intrinsically there's more value and more challenge associated with getting the larger die to yield so we wouldn't be surprised if there was more support. Certainly, there are more applications being applied to try to make sure that those designs work. That is more work going on with the customers. So, we think there is good opportunity, but it's still relatively early to know how the story plays out in terms of total adoption. In our planning, just so you understand, in our business that Bren has laid out, we're not assuming the adoption goes up. We're assuming that would be upside to our plan.

    好問題。我認為,我們正處於某些 10 奈米設計的早期階段。當然,支援這些新 GPU 的 10 奈米製程控制的採用水準高於先前的節點。問題是,當這些強度上升時會發生什麼?是否會回到歷史最高水準。我認為這在很大程度上取決於客戶的實際體驗,包括他們的表現如何以及他們獲得的利益。但是,正如您所說,從本質上講,獲得更大的晶片產量具有更大的價值,也面臨更大的挑戰,因此如果有更多支持,我們不會感到驚訝。當然,還有更多的應用程式正在應用,以確保這些設計能夠發揮作用。這意味著我們需要與客戶一起做更多的工作。因此,我們認為這是一個好機會,但要知道整體採用情況如何還為時過早。在我們的規劃中,正如你們所理解的,在 Bren 所規劃的業務中,我們並沒有假設採用率會上升。我們假設這對我們的計劃有利。

  • Atif Malik - Analyst

    Atif Malik - Analyst

  • And then, as a follow-up, you mentioned that you can help improve the device yields in 3D NAND. Can you just tell us in basic terms what are the issues on 3D NAND yields for customers?

    然後,作為後續,您提到您可以協助提高 3D NAND 的設備產量。能否簡單介紹一下顧客在 3D NAND 產量上遇到的問題?

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • Well, I think the most basic way to think about it is if you think about the way these structures are built and you're going vertical versus what was horizontally shrinking. Now, you aren't shrinking as much, but you're going deeper. There's a lot of ways that those materials will break down under the stress of manufacturing so you'll get defects that would be part-way down or all the way down the stack and for customers it's very hard to see those. It's very hard to understand how to improve the process. So, part of what happens is they have to go through destructive -- that is, electrical test or other means of de-processing the wafers to identify the problems. If we can visualize that for them in the fab which is a different kind of inspection challenge, it allows them to have faster corrective action to get the yields ramped up. So, it's not so much a size of a defect problem, it's the depth of the defect problem. And, that's where we've had to modify some of our technology to support that because as long as we've been in the industry, it's about finding smaller defects not necessarily these very high aspect ratio defects.

    嗯,我認為最基本的思考方式是,如果你思考這些結構的建造方式,那麼你將垂直建造而不是水平收縮。現在,你不再縮小那麼多,但你卻變得更深了。這些材料在製造壓力下會以多種方式分解,因此會出現部分或全部缺陷,而對於客戶來說,很難發現這些缺陷。很難理解如何改進這個過程。因此,他們必須進行破壞性測試——即電氣測試或其他晶圓去處理方法,以識別問題。如果我們能夠想像這對晶圓廠來說是一種不同的檢查挑戰,那麼他們就可以更快地採取糾正措施,以提高產量。因此,這與其說是缺陷大小的問題,不如說是缺陷深度的問題。這就是我們必須修改部分技術來支持這一點的地方,因為只要我們身處這個行業,我們就要找到較小的缺陷,而不一定是這些高縱橫比的缺陷。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question -- your final question comes from Medhi Hosseini from Susquehanna.

    您的下一個問題——最後一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納的梅迪·胡賽尼 (Medhi Hosseini)。

  • Bill Grinstead - Analyst

    Bill Grinstead - Analyst

  • Good afternoon. This is Bill Grinstead in for Medhi. Just a question on reuse -- equipment reuse as one of your customers migrates from 16-nanometer to 10-nanometer, what kind of impact do you think that could have?

    午安.這是比爾‧格林斯特德 (Bill Grinstead),代替梅迪 (Medhi)。關於重用的一個問題——當您的一位客戶從 16 奈米遷移到 10 奈米時,設備重複使用,您認為這會產生什麼樣的影響?

  • Rick Wallace - CEO and President

    Rick Wallace - CEO and President

  • Well, from 16 to 10, virtually no reuse. That was more of a dynamic we saw from 20 to 16. So, you have new tool sets. You have more complicated patterning challenges in FinFET. So, you have a change in lithography, and you have a change in the back of the line, too. Those are all new tools. Customers are always trying to optimize their capital, and so to the extent they can always reuse tools or any time they can they will try. We think going forward from 10 to 7 there could potentially be some. We've tried to model that in to how we think about it so that's modeled in how we've outlined the financial performance for the next few quarters. But, I think that that -- I think we feel pretty comfortable that what we experienced at 20 to 16-14 was a bit unique, and we won't see that going forward. Even from 10 to 7, you've got taller FinFETS. You've got new materials in the back end. You've got complicated multi-patterning techniques. Very significant process window challenges. We think that there's a lot of additive opportunities there, and as we introduce new products, customers will quickly try to take up that capability and try to improve their costs, too. So, I think that the new product cadence helps insulate from some of that as well, and I think the challenges going forward are going to be pretty tough.

    嗯,從 16 到 10,幾乎沒有重複使用。這更像是我們從 20 歲到 16 歲看到的動態。因此,您有了新的工具集。FinFET 中面臨更複雜的圖案化挑戰。因此,光刻技術發生了變化,生產線的後部也發生了變化。這些都是新工具。客戶總是試圖優化他們的資本,因此他們會盡可能地重複使用工具,或在任何可能的情況下嘗試。我們認為從 10 到 7 可能會有一些。我們試圖將其建模成我們的想法,以便將其建模成我們對未來幾季的財務表現的概述。但是,我認為——我認為我們對 20 到 16-14 年間經歷的情況感到很滿意,這有點獨特,我們不會在未來看到這種情況。即使從 10 到 7,你也會得到更高的 FinFET。您在後端獲得了新材料。您擁有複雜的多重圖案技術。非常重大的工藝窗口挑戰。我們認為這其中有很多附加機會,而且隨著我們推出新產品,客戶也會迅速嘗試採用這種能力並嘗試改善他們的成本。因此,我認為新的產品節奏也有助於隔離其中的一些問題,我認為未來的挑戰將會非常艱鉅。

  • Bill Grinstead - Analyst

    Bill Grinstead - Analyst

  • Got it, thank you.

    知道了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to the presenters.

    目前沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉回給主持人。

  • Ed Lockwood - Senior Director of IR

    Ed Lockwood - Senior Director of IR

  • Thank you, Marianna, and on behalf of everyone here I'd like to thank you all for joining us on the call today. An audio replay of today's call will be available on our website shortly following the call, and we look forward to speaking to you all soon. Thank you.

    謝謝你,瑪麗安娜,我謹代表在座的各位感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。今天電話會議的音訊回放將在會議結束後不久在我們的網站上提供,我們期待很快與大家交談。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。