KeyCorp (KEY) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you everyone for standing by.

謝謝大家的支持。

Welcome to the 2024 third quarter earnings call.

歡迎參加 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Mauney, KeyCorp Director of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給 KeyCorp 投資者關係總監 Brian Mauney。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning everyone.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。

I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's third quarter, 2024 earnings conference call.

感謝您參加 KeyCorp 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

I'm here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer.

我和我們的董事長兼執行長克里斯·戈爾曼一起來到這裡。和我們的財務長克拉克·卡亞特 (Clark Khayat)。

As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides which can be found on the investor relations section of the key.com website.

像往常一樣，我們將參考我們的收益簡報幻燈片，這些幻燈片可以在 key.com 網站的投資者關係部分找到。

In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures including non-GAAP measures.

在簡報的後面，您將找到我們關於前瞻性揭露和某些財務指標（包括非公認會計原則指標）的聲明。

This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call.

這涵蓋了我們的收益資料以及今天早上電話會議上的言論。

Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements and those statements speak only as of today, October 17, 2024, and will not be updated.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異，這些陳述僅代表截至今天（2024 年 10 月 17 日）的情況，並且不會更新。

With that.

就這樣。

I will turn it over to Chris.

我會把它交給克里斯。

Thank you, Brian and good morning everyone.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。

I'm on slide 2.

我在投影片 2 上。

Before I hand it over to Clark to review our financial results, I want to provide my perspective on a quarter that represented significant progress for key as we position ourselves for the future.

在我將其交給克拉克審查我們的財務業績之前，我想提供我對一個季度的看法，該季度代表了我們為未來定位的關鍵進展。

First, we received the initial $821 million, a little less than one-third of the anticipated minority investment from Scotiabank at the end of August.

首先，我們收到了 8.21 億美元的初始資金，略低於 8 月底豐業銀行預期少數股權投資的三分之一。

We used approximately $700 million of the proceeds to reposition our securities portfolio.

我們使用約 7 億美元的收益來重新定位我們的證券投資組合。

In retrospect, this trade was fortuitously timed.

回想起來，這筆交易的時機很偶然。

Long dated securities were sold near recent bond market highs in mid-September, which enabled us to sell over $7 billion of market value securities out of a total available for sale portfolio of $37 billion.

9 月中旬，長期證券在近期債券市場高點附近出售，這使我們能夠在 370 億美元的可供出售投資組合中出售超過 70 億美元的市值證券。

At this point, we have fully invested the proceeds at better than anticipated yields in more liquid, less capital intensive, shorter duration agency MBS.

至此，我們已將收益以高於預期的收益率全部投資於流動性更強、資本密集程度較低、期限較短的機構MBS。

We anticipate these actions will add over $40 million to quarterly net interest income in the fourth quarter.

我們預計這些行動將使第四季的季度淨利息收入增加超過 4,000 萬美元。

As for the remainder of the $2.8 billion Scotiabank minority investment, we are now through the public comment period.

至於豐業銀行 28 億美元少數股權投資的剩餘部分，我們現在正處於公眾意見徵詢期。

And we continue to expect to receive regulatory approval by the first quarter of 2025.

我們仍然預計在 2025 年第一季之前獲得監管部門的批准。

Secondly, we saw the long anticipated step up in our net interest income this quarter up 7% quarter over quarter.

其次，我們看到本季我們預期已久的淨利息收入較上季成長 7%。

This reflected a combination of a more meaningful amount of low yielding short-term swaps in treasuries maturing as well as proactive management of our funding costs.

這反映出更有意義的到期國債低收益短期掉期以及我們對融資成本的主動管理。

We also continue to grow our client deposits, up 4% year over year and 2% sequentially.

我們的客戶存款也持續成長，較去年同期成長 4%，較上季成長 2%。

We achieved this NII growth despite some near term impact as a result of the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in mid-September.

儘管聯準會 9 月中旬降息 50 個基點帶來了一些短期影響，但我們仍實現了 NII 成長。

We mitigated a portion of the cut through a very proactive and disciplined deposit repricing plan, which is a testament to the preparedness of our consumer and commercial deposit teams.

我們透過非常主動和嚴格的存款重新定價計劃減輕了部分削減，這證明了我們的消費者和商業存款團隊已做好準備。

As a result, our beta in the initial Fed cut is anticipated to be higher than we had previously modeled and communicated.

因此，我們預計聯準會首次降息的貝塔值將高於我們先前建模和傳達的結果。

Thirdly, we continued to see strong momentum across our most important fee based organic growth initiatives.

第三，我們繼續看到我們最重要的基於收費的有機成長計劃的強勁勢頭。

Investment banking and debt placement fees were very strong at $171 million, one of the best third quarters in our history.

投資銀行和債務安置費用非常強勁，達到 1.71 億美元，這是我們歷史上最好的第三季之一。

Activity was broad based with volumes particularly robust across loan syndications as well as debt and equity originations.

活動基礎廣泛，銀團貸款以及債務和股權發行的交易量尤其強勁。

Pipelines remain at historically elevated levels despite the third quarter pull through.

儘管第三季已經過去，但管道仍保持在歷史高點。

Pipelines are stable compared to the June 30 levels and up meaningfully compared to year-end and year-ago levels, M&A backlogs which we have said in the past, have a 2 to 3 times multiplier effect were near record levels and up 10% compared to the prior quarter.

與6 月30 日的水平相比，管道數量穩定，與年底和去年同期相比顯著上升，我們過去所說的併購積壓具有2 至3 倍的乘數效應，接近歷史水平，與去年同期相比增長了10%到上一季。

At this point, I am confident we will hit the high end of our full year target for investment banking fees of $600 million to $650 million, with an opportunity to exceed the high end if our pipelines pull through prior to year-end, again, assuming markets remain hospitable.

在這一點上，我相信我們將達到 6 億至 6.5 億美元的全年投資銀行費用目標的高端，如果我們的管道在年底前恢復正常，就有機會超過高端，假設市場仍然熱情好客。

In commercial payments, leveraging our focus on primacy, commercial deposits were up 5% year over year and 2% sequentially.

在商業支付方面，憑藉我們對首要地位的關注，商業存款年增5%，季增2%。

As a reminder, 93% of these balances are tied to an operating account.

提醒一下，其中 93% 的餘額與營運帳戶相關。

Underlying core treasury service activities remain strong, growing in the low double digits.

基礎核心資金服務活動依然強勁，以低兩位數成長。

We believe we are well-positioned in this area to benefit as rates continue to decline.

我們相信，隨著利率持續下降，我們在這一領域處於有利地位，能夠受益。

Our third-party commercial mortgage servicing business posted a record quarter due to a small portfolio acquisition over the summer.

由於夏季的小規模投資組合收購，我們的第三方商業抵押貸款服務業務創下了創紀錄的季度業績。

Additionally, active special servicing balances reached a record $7.5 billion.

此外，活躍的特別服務餘額達到創紀錄的 75 億美元。

As a reminder, this is a countercyclical off us business that also provides us with unique insights into the commercial real estate market.

提醒一下，這是一項反週期的非美國業務，也為我們提供了對商業房地產市場的獨特見解。

We are currently seeing high rates of transfers into special servicing, concentrated in office and to a lesser extent multifamily, even as we have also seen resolutions accelerate as we move through the year.

目前，我們看到轉入特殊服務的比例很高，主要集中在辦公室，在較小程度上是多戶住宅，儘管我們也看到隨著這一年的推移，解決方案的速度加快。

In wealth, assets under management reached an all-time high of $61 billion, up 16% from the prior year.

在財富方面，管理資產達到歷史新高，達到 610 億美元，比上年增長 16%。

Sales production was a record this quarter and we are on track for a record year.

本季的銷售產量創歷史新高，我們今年有望創紀錄。

While the entire wealth business is performing well, we continue to see particularly strong traction in our mass affluent segment.

儘管整個財富業務表現良好，但我們仍然看到大眾富裕階層的吸引力特別強勁。

This quarter, we enrolled an additional 5,000 households and added $620 million of assets to the platform.

本季度，我們新增了 5,000 個家庭，並為該平台增加了 6.2 億美元的資產。

In only 18 months, we have added over 36,000 households and about $3.6 billion of new household assets to Key.

僅在 18 個月內，我們就為 Key 增加了超過 36,000 個家庭和約 36 億美元的新家庭資產。

As a reminder, over 1 million of Key's retail households have investable assets of over $250,000 and only about 10% have an existing investment relationship with us.

需要提醒的是，超過 100 萬的 Key 零售家庭擁有超過 25 萬美元的可投資資產，但只有約 10% 的家庭與我們有現有的投資關係。

So there remains a significant opportunity to continue to grow in the mass affluent segment.

因此，大眾富裕階層仍存在著持續成長的重大機會。

Lastly, with respect to credit, we continue to demonstrate a conservative de-risk credit profile.

最後，在信貸方面，我們持續表現出保守的去風險信貸狀況。

Non-performing assets and loans as well as provision for credit losses were essentially flat.

不良資產和貸款以及信用損失準備基本持平。

Net charge offs as expected were up and reflected a few specific C&I credits that were known and had been mostly reserved against.

淨沖銷額如預期有所上升，反映了一些已知且大部分已預留的特定 C&I 信貸。

Importantly, criticized loans declined by $132 million.

重要的是，受到批評的貸款減少了 1.32 億美元。

We also saw a marked improvement in our net credit upgrades to downgrades trends, which while still slightly negative moved back to our trailing 13 quarter average.

我們也看到淨信用升級至降級趨勢顯著改善，儘管仍略有負值，但已回到過去 13 個季度的平均值。

We believe that NPLs are peaking and criticized loans will continue to decline from current levels.

我們認為，不良貸款正在見頂，受到批評的貸款將繼續從目前的水平下降。

In summary, I am proud of the significant progress we made as a company this quarter.

總之，我對我們公司本季取得的重大進展感到自豪。

We announced the strategic minority investment from Scotiabank, closing on the initial one-third tranche a few weeks later.

我們宣布了豐業銀行的策略性少數股權投資，幾週後完成了最初的三分之一部分。

We deployed most of that successfully completing one half of our anticipated securities portfolio restructuring.

我們部署了大部分資金，成功完成了預期證券投資組合重組的一半。

At the same time, we continued to drive broad based momentum across the franchise, grew our pipelines delivered the first meaningful leg of the uplift in net interest income that we've been communicating over the past year and took proactive actions across the deposit books to prepare ourselves for the rate cuts, all while continuing to demonstrate a strong credit risk profile.

同時，我們繼續在整個特許經營範圍內推動廣泛的勢頭，擴大我們的管道，實現了我們在過去一年中一直在溝通的淨利息收入增長的第一個有意義的階段，並在存款帳戶上採取了積極的行動，以實現淨利息收入的成長。

As a result, despite the one-time impact of the restructuring, we improved our CET1 ratio this quarter by another 35 basis points to 10.8%.

因此，儘管重組帶來了一次性影響，我們本季的 CET1 比率又提高了 35 個基點，達到 10.8%。

With that, I'll turn it over to Clark to provide more details on our financial results.

這樣，我會將其轉交給克拉克，以提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks Chris, and good morning everyone, I'm now on slide 4.

謝謝克里斯，大家早上好，我現在在幻燈片 4 上。

The third quarter, we reported earnings per share of negative $0.47 including $0.77 impact from the previously disclosed securities portfolio. repositioning.

第三季度，我們報告每股收益為負 0.47 美元，其中包括先前披露的證券投資組合帶來的 0.77 美元的影響。重新定位。

Excluding the repositioning, EPS was $0.30 per share.

不包括重新定位，每股收益為 0.30 美元。

As Chris mentioned in mid-September, we sold roughly $7 billion market value of mostly long dated CMOs and CMBS, which had a weighted average yield of about 2.3% and an average duration of almost six years.

正如克里斯在 9 月中旬提到的，我們出售了市值約 70 億美元的長期 CMO 和 CMBS，這些債券的加權平均收益率約為 2.3%，平均期限近六年。

And at this point, we have reinvested all of the proceeds mostly in October when we saw term rates rise by 30 basis points to 40 basis points.

目前，我們已將所有收益大部分在 10 月進行了再投資，當時我們看到期限利率上升了 30 個基點至 40 個基點。

As a result, we will see roughly 260 basis points yield pickup on approximately $7 billion of securities starting in the fourth quarter.

因此，從第四季開始，我們將看到約 70 億美元證券的收益率上升約 260 個基點。

The new securities will also provide liquidity and capital benefits relative to what was previously owned.

相對於先前擁有的證券，新證券也將提供流動性和資本利得。

As a reminder, we currently contemplate doing a similar magnitude repositioning upon receiving the second tranche of the Scotiabank investment, assuming we get that approval.

提醒一下，我們目前正在考慮在收到豐業銀行第二筆投資後進行類似規模的重新定位（假設我們獲得批准）。

Reported revenue was down approximately 55% sequentially and from the prior year, but excluding the securities repositioning revenue was up 6% sequentially and up 3% year over year, with growth across both net interest income and fees.

報告收入比上年同期下降約 55%，但不包括證券重新定位收入，比上年同期增長 6%，同比增長 3%，淨利息收入和費用均有所增長。

Expenses remained well controlled, down 1% compared to the prior year, a little better than we previously expected.

費用控制良好，較前一年下降 1%，略優於我們先前的預期。

This implies about 400 basis points of positive operating leverage on a year-over-year basis, excluding the securities portfolio repositioning.

這意味著正營運槓桿年增約 400 個基點（不包括證券投資組合重新定位）。

Credit costs were essentially flat to the second quarter and included a $60 million release of our allowance for credit losses, reflecting primarily three charge-off of credits that had specific reserve allocations held against them as well as lower loan balances.

信貸成本與第二季度基本持平，其中包括我們釋放了 6000 萬美元的信貸損失準備金，這主要反映了針對其持有特定準備金分配的信貸的三筆沖銷以及較低的貸款餘額。

Our common equity Tier 1 ratio increased to 10.8% and tangible book value increased nearly 16% sequentially.

我們的普通股一級資本比率增至 10.8%，有形帳面價值較上季成長近 16%。

Moving to the balance sheet on slide 5.

前往投影片 5 上的資產負債表。

Average loans declined 2.5% sequentially to $106 billion and ended the quarter just above $105 billion.

平均貸款季減 2.5%，至 1,060 億美元，本季末略高於 1,050 億美元。

The decline reflects continued (inaudible) client demand, flat utilization rates, our disciplined approach as to what we're willing to put on the balance sheet and the intentional runoff of low yielding consumer loans as they pay down and mature.

這種下降反映了持續的（聽不清楚）客戶需求、持平的利用率、我們對資產負債表上願意投入的資金的嚴格態度，以及低收益消費貸款在償還和到期時的有意流失。

Additionally, we built the business to be able to serve clients with on and off balance sheet solutions whichever works best for them.

此外，我們建立的業務能夠為客戶提供最適合他們的表內和表外解決方案。

This quarter, we raised $28 billion of capital for our clients.

本季度，我們為客戶籌集了 280 億美元的資金。

And as Chris mentioned, we had a very strong quarter of investment banking fees.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們的投資銀行費用季度非常強勁。

At the end of the third quarter, we warehoused approximately $600 million of loans for commercial clients that you can see in loans held for sale.

截至第三季末，我們為商業客戶儲存了約 6 億美元的貸款，您可以在待售貸款中看到這些貸款。

Additionally, throughout the quarter, we refinanced about $300 million of CRE loans off our balance sheet into permanent mortgages through our capital mortgage group.

此外，整個季度，我們透過資本抵押貸款小組將資產負債表外約 3 億美元的商業房地產貸款再融資為永久抵押貸款。

We continue to have active dialogue with clients and prospects and our loan pipelines continue to build.

我們繼續與客戶和潛在客戶進行積極對話，我們的貸款管道也在不斷建立。

On slide 6, average deposits increased 2.5% sequentially to nearly $148 billion, funding growth across consumer and commercial deposits.

在投影片 6 上，平均存款季增 2.5%，達到近 1,480 億美元，為消費者和商業存款的成長提供資金。

Client deposits were up about 4% year over year as we managed broker deposits down by roughly $2.2 billion from year-ago levels.

客戶存款年增約 4%，因為我們管理的經紀商存款較去年同期減少了約 22 億美元。

Reported non-interest bearing deposits declined 1% to 19% of total deposits.

報告的無息存款佔總存款的 19% 下降 1%。

And when adjusted for non-interest bearing deposits in our hybrid accounts, this percentage remained flat linked quarter at 24%.

當對我們混合帳戶中的無息存款進行調整時，這一百分比與季度持平，為 24%。

Both total and interest bearing deposit costs increased by 11 basis points during the quarter, 7 basis points of the increase reflected reduction of roughly $4.5 billion of FHLB funding, yielding almost 5.6%.

本季總存款成本和計息存款成本均增加了 11 個基點，其中 7 個基點反映出 FHLB 資金減少了約 45 億美元，收益率近 5.6%。

That was replaced with lower cost client deposits.

取而代之的是成本較低的客戶存款。

Our overall interest bearing costs increased just 1 basis point this quarter.

本季我們的整體計息成本僅增加 1 個基點。

As Chris mentioned, we've been proactive across our deposit book in preparation for the Fed easing cycle that we all anticipated would begin last month.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們在存款帳戶上一直積極主動，為我們都預計在上個月開始的聯準會寬鬆週期做準備。

Ahead of the cut, we shortened CD tenders and took promo rates down.

在削減之前，我們縮短了 CD 招標並降低了促銷率。

And on the commercial side, we moved significant amount of deposits into indexed accounts.

在商業方面，我們將大量存款轉移到指數帳戶。

Following the cut, we took rates down further across both front and back book in consumer.

降息後，我們進一步降低了消費者正面和背面的利率。

In commercial, we effectively pass along the majority of the cut to clients.

在商業領域，我們實際上將大部分分成轉嫁給了客戶。

Our deposit beta on the first rate cut is expected to be low to mid-30s which would benefit our fourth quarter net interest income.

我們第一次降息的存款貝塔值預計將低至 30 多歲，這將有利於我們第四季的淨利息收入。

Moving to net interest income and the margin on slide 7.

轉到幻燈片 7 上的淨利息收入和利潤率。

Tax equivalent net interest income was $964 million, up 7% or $65 million and the net interest margin increased 13 basis points from the prior quarter.

稅等淨利息收入為 9.64 億美元，成長 7%，即 6,500 萬美元，淨利差較上一季增加 13 個基點。

A well communicated net interest income opportunity is now providing more benefit as greater portion of low yielding short term swaps and treasuries mature.

隨著大部分低收益短期掉期和國債到期，溝通良好的淨利息收入機會現在正在提供更多收益。

Scotiabank investment and our mid-September securities portfolio reposition added roughly $12 million or about 2 basis points to the third quarter NII and NIM, respectively.

豐業銀行投資和我們 9 月中旬的證券投資組合重新定位分別為第三季的 NII 和 NIM 增加了約 1,200 萬美元，約 2 個基點。

Turning to slide 8.

轉到投影片 8。

Reported non-interest income was negative $269 million and included a $918 million loss related to the securities repositioning as well as a $14 million Visa-related charge.

報告的非利息收入為負 2.69 億美元，其中包括與證券重新定位相關的 9.18 億美元損失以及 1,400 萬美元的 Visa 相關費用。

Adjusting for those items.

針對這些項目進行調整。

Non-interest income was up 3% year over year.

非利息收入較去年同期成長3%。

Investment banking and debt placement fees increased over 20% from the prior year and 36% from the prior quarter, reflecting a strong quarter for syndication, debt, and equity underwriting fees.

投資銀行和債務配售費用比上年增長 20% 以上，比上一季增長 36%，反映出本季度銀團、債務和股票承銷費用的強勁表現。

Commercial mortgage servicing had a record quarter, reflecting higher active special servicing balances and growth in the overall portfolio.

商業抵押貸款服務季度創歷史新高，反映了主動特殊服務餘額的增加和整體投資組合的成長。

At September 30, we serviced about $690 billion of assets on behalf of third party clients, including about $230 billion of special servicing, $7.5 billion of which was in active special servicing.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們為第三方客戶提供了約 6,900 億美元的資產服務，其中包括約 2,300 億美元的特殊服務，其中 75 億美元用於主動特殊服務。

Given the lumpiness of some of these fees and as interest rates come down, we would expect fourth quarter commercial mortgage servicing fees to look more like the second quarter.

考慮到其中一些費用的波動性以及隨著利率的下降，我們預計第四季度商業抵押貸款服務費用將更像第二季。

Trust and investment services fees grew 8% year over year as assets under management grew to a record level. $61 billion.

由於管理資產成長至創紀錄水平，信託和投資服務費用年增 8%。 610 億美元。

On slide 9., second quarter non-interest expenses were $1.09 billion, up 1% quarter over quarter and down 1% year over year.

在投影片 9 中，第二季非利息支出為 10.9 億美元，季增 1%，年減 1%。

On a year-over-year basis, higher personnel costs were more than offset by lower fraud losses, marketing expenses, and a modest reduction in the estimated FDIC special assessment charge.

與去年同期相比，較高的人員成本被較低的詐欺損失、行銷費用以及預計 FDIC 特別評估費用的適度減少所抵消。

Sequentially, the increase was driven by higher incentive compensation from stronger investment banking fees.

隨後，這一增長是由投資銀行費用增加帶來的更高的激勵薪酬所推動的。

Moving to slide 10, credit quality remains solid.

轉到投影片 10，信用品質仍然穩定。

Net charge offs were $154 million or 58 basis points of average loans and 90 day delinquencies picked up a few basis points.

淨沖銷額為 1.54 億美元，相當於平均貸款的 58 個基點，90 天拖欠率上升了幾個基點。

Net charge offs were elevated due to three credits, two consumer goods companies and one equipment manufacturer that were largely reserved.

由於三項信貸、兩家消費品公司和一家設備製造商大部分被保留，淨沖銷額有所上升。

Non-performing loans and assets were essentially stable up 2.5% and 2% respectively, compared to the prior quarter.

不良貸款和資產基本穩定，較上季分別成長2.5%和2%。

NPAs as a percentage of loans remain low at 70 basis points.

不良資產佔貸款的百分比仍然較低，為 70 個基點。

Criticized loans declined by 2% in third quarter, reflecting lower rates and increased loan modifications with credit enhancements.

第三季受批評的貸款下降了 2%，反映出利率下降以及信用增強帶來的貸款修改增加。

We believe NPAs are peaking and criticized loans will continue to decline from here, assuming no material macro deterioration.

我們認為，假設宏觀經濟沒有實質惡化，不良貸款正在見頂，受到批評的貸款將繼續下降。

Turning to slide 11, we continue to build our capital position with the CET1 ratio up 35 basis points to 10.8% as of September 30.

轉向投影片 11，我們繼續建立資本頭寸，截至 9 月 30 日，CET1 比率上升 35 個基點，達到 10.8%。

Our marked CET1 ratio which includes unrealized AFS and pension losses improved nearly 130 basis points to 8.6%.

我們的顯著 CET1 比率（包括未實現的 AFS 和退休金損失）改善了近 130 個基點，達到 8.6%。

Our AOCI improved by about $1.9 billion to negative $3.3 billion at quarter end, reflecting lower interest rates and the securities reposition in mid-September.

季度末，我們的 AOCI 改善了約 19 億美元，達到負 33 億美元，反映出利率下降和 9 月中旬的證券重新定位。

We expect AOCI to further improve by about one-third by year-end 2025 and about 40% by year-end 2026, with approximately half of that improvement reflecting a second contemplated securities portfolio repositioning once the full investment from Scotiabank closes.

我們預計AOCI 到2025 年底將進一步改善約三分之一，到2026 年底將進一步改善約40%，其中約一半的改善反映了豐業銀行全額投資結束後第二次預期的證券投資組合重新定位。

Slide 12 provides our outlook for full year 2024 relative to 2023 we currently expect net interest income to fall in the middle of the full year guidance range of down 2% to 5% albeit with about 150 basis points of positive impact from the Scotiabank investment and the securities portfolio restructuring this past month.

幻燈片12 提供了我們對2024 年全年相對於2023 年的展望，我們目前預計淨利息收入將下降在全年指導範圍的中間，即下降2% 至5%，儘管豐業銀行的投資和投資帶來了約150 個基點的正面影響。

Net interest margin should come in around 2.4% for the fourth quarter.

第四季淨利差應在2.4%左右。

We are tweaking our year-end loan forecast by 1% to down 5% to 6%.

我們將年終貸款預測調整 1%，下調 5% 至 6%。

We are also positively revising our average deposit guidance to up 1% to 2%, including expectations for client deposits to grow by 3% to 4%.

我們也積極地將平均存款指引修改為成長 1% 至 2%，其中包括客戶存款成長 3% 至 4% 的預期。

We now expect fees excluding this past quarter's securities portfolio restructuring to grow 6% or better this year, depending on how the capital markets environment plays out in the fourth quarter.

我們現在預計，扣除上一季的證券投資組合重組費用後，今年的費用將增加 6% 或更高，具體取決於第四季資本市場環境的表現。

Given the strong fee momentum and our higher stock price, we expect expenses to be up approximately 2% this year.

鑑於強勁的費用動能和我們較高的股價，我們預計今年費用將上漲約 2%。

This also includes the funding of our charitable foundation.

這也包括我們慈善基金會的資金。

As we previously communicated.

正如我們之前溝通過的。

We expect the full year net charge off ratio to be closer to the high end of the 30 basis point to 40 basis point range, given lower loan balances than we had expected coming into the year.

鑑於今年的貸款餘額低於我們的預期，我們預計全年淨沖銷率將接近 30 個基點至 40 個基點範圍的高端。

For the full year, we expect provision for credit losses to come in around $400 million, which is unchanged from what we'd expected back in January.

我們預計全年信貸損失準備金約為 4 億美元，與 1 月的預期持平。

Moving to slide 13.

轉到投影片 13。

The last time we are updating the net interest income opportunity from swaps and short dated treasuries maturing as we sold the remaining roughly $3 billion of treasuries, yielding 50 basis points that were to mature in the fourth quarter at the end of September, meaning we now expect the final chunk of benefit from this opportunity to come in the fourth quarter.

上次我們更新掉期和到期短期國債的淨利息收入機會時，我們出售了剩餘的約30 億美元國債，產生了50 個基點，這些國債將在9 月底的第四季度到期，這意味著我們現在預計第四季將從這一機會中獲得最後的收益。

The cumulative annualized opportunity ended up being about $830 million, of which 80% has been achieved to date.

累計年化機會最終約為 8.3 億美元，其中 80% 迄今已實現。

Finally, on slide 14, we've laid out for you the path of how we intend to get from the $964 million of reported net interest income in the third quarter to the fourth quarter exit rate that we had targeted at the beginning of the year.

最後，在投影片 14 中，我們為您展示了我們打算如何從第三季報告的 9.64 億美元淨利息收入達到我們年初設定的第四季退出率的路徑。

Regardless of whether the Fed cuts 50 basis points or 75 basis points in the fourth quarter, we believe fourth quarter NII will be at least 10% higher year over year, which equates to [$1.020 billion] or better in the fourth quarter.

無論聯準會第四季降息50個基點或75個基點，我們認為第四季NII將年比至少上漲10%，相當於第四季[10.20億美元]或更高。

We expect about $40 million of incremental benefit from the September portfolio restructuring, an initial tranche investment from Scotiabank.

我們預計 9 月的投資組合重組將帶來約 4,000 萬美元的增量收益，這是豐業銀行的初始投資。

We expect another $50 million or so of benefit from fixed rate asset repricing including from the accelerated sale of short term treasuries I just described.

我們預計固定利率資產重新定價將帶來另外約 5,000 萬美元的收益，其中包括我剛才描述的加速出售短期國債。

We also think we can drive a modest amount of commercial loan growth and some further funding optimization offset by some short-term impact from the expected Fed rate cuts.

我們也認為，我們可以推動商業貸款適度成長，並進一步優化融資，抵消聯準會降息預期帶來的一些短期影響。

While fewer cuts would be better for fourth quarter NII, that is largely a timing impact.

雖然減少第四季度 NII 的削減會更好，但這在很大程度上是時間影響。

Keep in mind that we would expect to capture more benefit of any rate cut over the ensuing 6 to 12 months and rate cuts would likely provide benefits to other parts of our business, such as higher client transaction activity or demand for credit and improvements to capital.

請記住，我們預計在接下來的6 至12 個月內從任何降息中獲得更多好處，並且降息可能會為我們業務的其他部分帶來好處，例如更高的客戶交易活動或信貸需求以及資本改善。

With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator who will provide instructions for the Q&A portion of our call.

這樣，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，接線員將為我們電話的問答部分提供說明。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

（操作說明）Scott Siefers、Piper Sandler。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

I think you might have touched on this a bit towards the end of your remarks.

我想您在發言的最後可能已經談到了這一點。

But you know, there's been so much movement in your balance sheet over the last 90 days.

但您知道，過去 90 天內您的資產負債表發生了很大的變化。

You know, not only the new capital and the repositioning, but now it looks like the funding profile starting to look a little different with the improved deposit outlook as well.

你知道，不僅是新資本和重新定位，現在看來，隨著存款前景的改善，資金狀況也開始有些不同。

Maybe just some thoughts on the updated rate sensitivity of the company as a whole.

也許只是對整個公司更新的利率敏感度的一些想法。

And as you look at things, what would be sort of best and worst that you would like just in terms of what happens with the rate path?

當您看待事物時，就利率路徑發生的情況而言，您希望最好和最壞的情況是什麼？

Hey, good morning, Scott.

嘿，早上好，史考特。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So look, we've been moving towards rate sensitivity that's obviously often viewed over kind of a 12 month period.

所以看，我們一直在朝著利率敏感性邁進，這顯然通常是在 12 個月的時間內進行觀察的。

So as all of us in the industry have talked about the early cuts, take a little bit of time to work their way through particularly on the deposit side.

因此，正如我們所有業內人士都討論過早期削減一樣，請花一點時間來解決問題，特別是在存款方面。

As we noted, we took a little bit more deposit action than we had previously planned.

正如我們所指出的，我們採取的存款行動比之前計劃的要多一些。

Beta's kind of low-30s or so, which we were very happy with and we think over the course of 2025 we'll be able to get back to more standard beta paths over time.

Beta 版本大約在 30 左右，我們對此感到非常滿意，我們認為在 2025 年，我們將能夠隨著時間的推移回到更標準的 Beta 路徑。

I think on the overall rate profile, look, I think the best version of the world is the one we appear to be headed in if a soft landing is coming, which is a steeping curve right now.

我認為，就整體利率狀況而言，我認為，如果軟著陸即將到來，世界上最好的版本就是我們即將進入的版本，目前這是一條陡峭的曲線。

We got some rally in the term rates.

期限利率有所上漲。

So, you know, nearing again, 4%, we all think the front end is coming down.

所以，你知道，再次接近 4%，我們都認為前端正在下降。

So something that's flat to upward sloping, I think it is the best profile for all of us.

因此，平坦到向上傾斜的東西，我認為這對我們所有人來說都是最好的輪廓。

But on the flip side, I think we took some actions as you noted in getting out of higher cost, wholesale funding, we funded that with deposits at a lower cost.

但另一方面，我認為我們採取了一些行動，正如您所指出的，為了擺脫較高的成本、批發融資，我們用較低成本的存款為其提供資金。

We feel really good about that deposit base and the customer profile.

我們對存款基礎和客戶概況感到非常滿意。

We feel good about our ability to price that over time.

隨著時間的推移，我們對自己定價的能力感到滿意。

And given that the swaps positions are coming off, we feel better just about our overall rate sensitivity.

鑑於掉期部位正在減少，我們對整體利率敏感度感覺更好。

The other point I'd make is we had a little bit of concern on the repositioning early just given the amount of cash we thought we'd be holding for potentially an extended period of time.

我要說的另一點是，考慮到我們認為可能會長期持有的現金數量，我們對早期重新定位有點擔心。

Obviously, that cash is pretty asset sensitive.

顯然，這些現金對資產非常敏感。

So as those rates come down, that impacts us and we were able to get all of that into the market in the last few weeks when those term rates did rally and we did it at better than expected value.

因此，隨著這些利率的下降，這會對我們產生影響，當這些期限利率確實上漲時，我們能夠在過去幾週內將所有這些都投入市場，並且我們的表現優於預期。

So that's obviously going to help our rate sensitivity position going forward.

因此，這顯然將有助於我們未來的利率敏感度立場。

And we put those proceeds in kind of [490, 495] range in a duration that's just under four years.

我們將這些收益放在 [490, 495] 範圍內，持續時間不到四年。

So we felt very good about that repositioning.

所以我們對這次重新定位感覺非常好。

And again, that'll aid us going forward.

再說一遍，這將有助於我們前進。

Yeah, perfect.

是的，完美。

Thank you for that color and then sort of related one, I think last month you all had discussed NII improvement next year in kind of the 20%-plus range.

謝謝你的顏色和相關的顏色，我想上個月你們都討論了明年 NII 的改善，範圍在 20% 以上。

I think that was before you were fully invested because if I'm recalling the timing correctly, that was when you just announced the repositioning.

我認為那是在你完全投入之前，因為如果我沒記錯時間的話，那就是你剛剛宣布重新定位的時候。

So you know, the actual investment probably a little better than you thought, which presumably should be helpful.

所以你知道，實際的投資可能比你想像的好一點，這大概應該是有幫助的。

But I guess the thrust of the question is just we're still thinking 20%-plus NII improvement next year and maybe just if you could expand a little on the sort of the main puts and takes to get there in your mind.

但我想問題的主旨是，我們仍然在考慮明年 NII 會提高 20% 以上，也許你可以稍微擴展一下主要的看跌期權和拿走期權的種類，以實現你心中的目標。

Sure.

當然。

So I'm going to start with a couple qualifiers because I feel like that's necessary.

所以我將從幾個預選賽開始，因為我覺得這是必要的。

You know, the first being, you know, a constructive macro environment kind of soft landing as folks expect.

你知道，第一個是，你知道，建設性​​的宏觀環境，類似於人們所期望的軟著陸。

So that's point one.

這就是第一點。

Point two is, you know, we're in the middle of planning for next year.

第二點是，你知道，我們正在為明年做計劃。

So we'll give our full guidance here in January.

因此，我們將在一月份在這裡提供全面的指導。

But on the 20%, I'd say roughly half of that we think comes from the incremental impact of the repositioning.

但對於這 20%，我想說，我們認為其中大約一半來自重新定位的增量影響。

So assuming, and this would be the other qualifier, assuming the second leg of this gets approved and we can do the repositioning early in '25, so we can get the full year impact of that.

所以假設，這將是另一個預選賽，假設第二回合獲得批准，我們可以在 25 年初進行重新定位，這樣我們就可以獲得全年的影響。

We think about half of that lift comes from the complete repositioning at completion.

我們認為一半的提升來自完成式的完全重新定位。

So that's part of it.

這就是其中的一部分。

The other components would be continued fixed price, fixed asset price -- repricing through the course of the year.

其他組成部分將是持續固定價格、固定資產價格——全年重新定價。

And that's a combination of some swaps, not the ones we've been talking about, but some additional swaps still at rates kind of below 2%.

這是一些掉期的組合，不是我們一直在談論的掉期，而是一些利率仍低於 2% 的額外掉期。

We've got a consumer book that's running down at rates like 3%.

我們有一本消費性書籍正在以 3% 左右的價格下降。

And then we've got some other fixed rate securities that are a little bit higher that won't be as valuable as they would have been previously with rates coming down.

然後我們還有一些其他固定利率證券，它們的價格稍微高一些，但隨著利率下降，它們的價值將不如以前。

But we do have some continued opportunity there.

但我們確實有一些持續的機會。

And then the last piece, the last two pieces and I'll finish with the most important one.

然後是最後一塊，最後兩塊，我將以最重要的一塊結束。

We do have at this point and again, subject to change as we get through our planning process, relatively a view on relative stability of loans through 2025.

我們目前確實對 2025 年貸款的相對穩定性有一個相對穩定的看法，但隨著我們完成規劃過程，可能會改變。

But recall that, that is a mixing of consumer coming down and being replaced with commercial.

但請記住，這是消費者下降並被商業取代的混合體。

So we will need some commercial growth, not herculean efforts, but something.

因此，我們需要一些商業成長，不是巨大的努力，而是某種東西。

Our pipelines would tell us that, that should be coming.

我們的管道會告訴我們，這應該會到來。

But in fairness, it's been telling us that for a quarter or two.

但公平地說，它已經告訴我們這一點一兩個季度了。

So we'll see how that transpires.

所以我們將看看這是如何發生的。

And then the most important piece is just continued ability to manage betas.

然後最重要的部分就是持續管理測試版的能力。

We've talked a lot about how the commercial book is positioned.

我們已經討論了很多關於商業書籍如何定位的問題。

We've actually improved that throughout the year, getting more deposits into index.

事實上，我們全年都在改善這一點，將更多存款納入指數。

We think the use of our hybrid accounts and the core treasury services that are covered by deposits there will be a benefit as well.

我們認為使用我們的混合帳戶和存款所涵蓋的核心財務服務也會帶來好處。

And we've taken some action in the consumer book that would give us confidence that we can get betas to the right level throughout the course of 2025.

我們在消費者手冊中採取了一些行動，這將使我們有信心在 2025 年期間將 Beta 值提高到正確的水平。

So all those components kind of make up the other half of the 20%.

所以所有這些組成部分就構成了 20% 的另一半。

And at this point, we feel good that that's achievable, but we owe you a more detailed explanation when we come back in January.

在這一點上，我們很高興這是可以實現的，但當我們一月份回來時，我們欠您一個更詳細的解釋。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Chris, you talked about, we're saying M&A backlogs are up 10% quarter over quarter and what's the change now?

克里斯，你談到，我們說併購積壓訂單環比增長了 10%，現在有什麼變化嗎？

Why?

為什麼？

And we've seen this at the big players.

我們已經在大公司身上看到了這一點。

And also we've heard there's a little debate, is the [cash markets] activity taking away from long growth or are they separate?

我們也聽說有一些爭論，[現金市場]活動是否會影響長期成長，還是它們是獨​​立的？

Are you seeing some disintermediation from lending to capital markets as it relates to KeyCorp?

您是否看到與 KeyCorp 相關的資本市場貸款出現了一些脫媒現象？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks for your question.

謝謝你的提問。

I think the fundamental difference is the private equity universe is really starting to transact.

我認為根本的區別在於私募股權領域真正開始交易。

I think they have a perspective, obviously, there's an inverse relationship between the whole period and the returns.

我認為他們有一個觀點，顯然，整個時期和回報之間存在著反比關係。

And in addition to that with the 10 year, which is really what matters sort of settling in somewhere around 4%.

除此之外，10 年期的利率穩定在 4% 左右才是真正重要的。

That's in an environment where I think the private equity world is very comfortable transacting.

我認為私募股權界的交易環境非常舒適。

And as a consequence, I think you're really starting to see a pickup on the M&A side.

因此，我認為您確實開始看到併購方面的回升。

And I think that will continue, by the way.

順便說一句，我認為這種情況將會持續下去。

With respect to the disintermediation, there's no question that it is.

就脫媒而言，這是毫無疑問的。

I mean, you know, Mike, we raised $28 billion last quarter and we have a pretty good eye on this because we're distributing a lot of paper in a lot of places.

我的意思是，麥克，你知道，上個季度我們籌集了 280 億美元，我們對此非常關注，因為我們在很多地方分發了大量紙張。

And there's no question in my mind that some of the capital markets activity does in fact disintermediate the banks.

在我看來，毫無疑問，一些資本市場活動實際上確實使銀行脫中介化。

And I think the private capital -- private credit markets do as well.

我認為私人資本——私人信貸市場也是如此。

And of course, we distribute paper to all those places.

當然，我們也會向所有這些地方分發紙張。

And the only thing I might add to that Mike, just a couple of specific examples.

我唯一可以向麥克補充的就是幾個具體的例子。

And we touched on this, but about $0.5 billion of loans we put directly into our warehouse, they're on their way to the markets.

我們談到了這一點，但我們直接存入倉庫的大約 5 億美元貸款正在進入市場。

And then another $300 million we refinanced off the balance sheet into the market.

然後我們又從資產負債表中再融資市場 3 億美元。

So that's always been our model and we'll continue to do what makes the most sense for clients.

所以這一直是我們的模式，我們將繼續做對客戶最有意義的事情。

And I think you saw that this quarter in our strong investment banking fees.

我想您已經在本季度我們強勁的投資銀行費用中看到了這一點。

And just to follow-up on the private equity comment, you said the private equity universe is starting to transact.

作為私募股權評論的後續行動，您說私募股權領域正在開始交易。

I got the sense there deploying some of the dry powder, but honestly monetizing the investments.

我感覺部署了一些乾粉，但誠實地將投資貨幣化。

But you get different stories depending on who you ask, how much of your business is driven by private equity and how do you see the private equity factor playing out because you've never had this much dry powder in a cycle like this?

但是，根據你問的對象、你的業務有多少是由私募股權驅動的，以及你如何看待私募股權因素的發揮，你會得到不同的故事，因為你在這樣的周期中從未有過這麼多的乾粉？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

So I think broadly the private equity universe represents about a third of all the fees that are paid in the investment banking arena.

因此，我認為，從廣義上講，私募股權領域約佔投資銀行領域支付的所有費用的三分之一。

Our mix wouldn't be much different and your observation is good in that the private equity firms that are putting product out into the market, that's a process that takes 12 months or so as opposed to buying businesses that are available, which is relatively, there's a sort of timeline on that.

我們的組合不會有太大不同，您的觀察結果很好，因為私募股權公司將產品投入市場，這是一個需要 12 個月左右的過程，而不是購買可用的企業，相對而言，這有一個時間表。

Thanks for your questions, Mike.

謝謝你的提問，麥克。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Chris you mentioned in your opening remarks about the special servicing.

克里斯，您在開場白中提到了特殊服務。

I was curious, what perked my interest you mentioned how there seems to be an accelerated resolution to the inflows that may have come in six months ago or three months ago.

我很好奇，是什麼引起了我的興趣，你提到六個月前或三個月前可能出現的資金流入似乎正在加速解決。

Can you give us any color on how that resolution is going?

您能給我們透露一下該決議的進展嗎？

Is it big price discounts and then being refinanced or what are you guys seeing on the resolution side to move these properties out?

是大幅度的價格折扣，然後進行再融資，還是你們在解決方案方面看到了什麼，以將這些房產遷出？

So it's a combination of things Gerard.

所以這是傑拉德的綜合因素。

If you go to the office market, frankly there's just some capitulation because there has to be and things are starting to trade albeit at a significant discount, not a lot of new capital coming in frankly to the office market.

如果你去辦公市場，坦白說，只是有一些投降，因為必須有，而且事情已經開始交易，儘管折扣很大，但坦白說，沒有大量新資本進入辦公室市場。

I can speak to that in greater depth in a moment.

我稍後可以更深入地討論這一點。

On the other hand, with respect to multifamily, and we've said before, most of the multifamily projects that are in special servicing are concentrated in the Southeast.

另一方面，就多戶住宅而言，我們之前已經說過，大多數提供特殊服務的多戶住宅項目都集中在東南部。

Most of them frankly are not financed by banks.

坦白說，其中大多數都沒有銀行融資。

Most of them were done relatively recently with some very aggressive assumptions i.e., trending rates having, sub-debt in them, et cetera.

其中大多數都是最近完成的，並做出了一些非常激進的假設，即趨勢利率、其中的次級債務等等。

In those instances, we are able to attract new capital on a restructuring basis.

在這種情況下，我們能夠在重組的基礎上吸引新資本。

So it's a little bit different for office vis-a-vis multifamily.

因此，辦公室與多戶住宅略有不同。

Very good.

非常好。

And then you guys talked about the outlook for loans or what you're experiencing in loans.

然後你們談論了貸款的前景或你們在貸款中遇到的情況。

And we're seeing from the H8 data that comes out on Friday is that it seems like commercial and industrial loans have hit a bottom and are starting to creep up a bit.

我們從週五公佈的 H8 數據中看到，商業和工業貸款似乎已經觸底，並開始小幅上升。

Any sense that you might be seeing that soon as well or is it just some of your -- where you're physically located and your customers is still going to be flat for or flat to down, I should say over the near term.

我應該說，你可能很快就會看到這種情況，或者這只是你的一些感覺——你的實際位置和你的客戶仍然會持平或持平到下降。

So there's a few things going on.

所以有一些事情正在發生。

And first of all, we are without question growing clients.

首先，毫無疑問，我們是不斷成長的客戶。

So there's no doubt that we're out there bringing on new clients.

因此，毫無疑問，我們正在吸引新客戶。

We have been obviously a bit frustrated by the lack of take up of our existing clients in terms of borrowing money.

顯然，我們對現有客戶在藉貸方面的缺乏感到有點沮喪。

And I think what's going on, Gerard is a few things.

我認為傑拉德發生了一些事情。

On the positive side I mentioned to Mike, there is transactional finance happening.

我向麥克提到的積極的一面是，交易金融正在發生。

So that's a positive.

所以這是積極的。

On the negative side, you just have supply significantly exceeding demand.

從消極的一面來看，供應量大大超過了需求量。

On the demand side, here's some of the things that we need to see before we get significant growth from our existing customers.

在需求方面，在我們從現有客戶那裡獲得顯著成長之前，我們需要看到以下一些事情。

One, there hasn't been a lot of investment in CapEx and that has typically a lead time of about 18 months based on all the uncertainties.

第一，資本支出的投資並不多，而且基於所有的不確定性，投資週期通常約為 18 個月。

The next thing is utilization and this one is a complex one.

接下來是利用率，這是一個複雜的問題。

Everyone basically went long on inventory during the pandemic because there was a lot of inflation and there were supply chain issues.

在疫情期間，每個人基本上都在做多庫存，因為通貨膨脹很高，並且有供應鏈問題。

Now people are getting back to really managing their working capital and I assume obviously rising rates has something to do with that as well.

現在人們開始真正管理他們的營運資金，我認為利率上升顯然也與此有關。

So I think there's just been a fundamental adjustment there.

所以我認為這只是一個根本性的調整。

So we do see it coming back, we see it coming back first on the transaction side, we'll see it next, I think on our clients engaging in CapEx and I think the last piece that will happen is to really get a kick in utilization because for all the reasons I just described these companies are throwing off a fair amount of cash as they get sort of top line declines and all the other things in the mix.

所以我們確實看到它回來了，我們看到它首先在交易方面回來，我們接下來會看到它，我認為我們的客戶參與資本支出，我認為最後會發生的是真正得到刺激利用率，因為出於我剛才描述的所有原因，這些公司正在扔掉大量現金，因為它們的收入有所下降，而且還有其他所有因素。

Does that answer your question, Gerard?

這能回答你的問題嗎，傑拉德？

No, it does.

不，確實如此。

It's good, Chris.

很好，克里斯。

And just one real quick.

而且只是一個非常快的。

You guys in the past have always had a comment or two on student lending.

你們過去總是對學生貸款發表一兩句話。

Any changes here with rates coming down a bit on your student lending platform?

您的學生貸款平台上的利率有下降，有什麼變化嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So that is an upside for us.

所以這對我們來說是一個好處。

As rates continue to come down, we basically had a negligible amount of originations in the last quarter in our student loan business.

隨著利率持續下降，上個季度我們的學生貸款業務的發放量基本上可以忽略不計。

We think a decline of 100 basis points to 150 basis points will get that business back to ramping up.

我們認為下降 100 到 150 個基點將使該業務恢復成長。

To state the obvious, every quarter, every semester, there's a bunch of new customers at different levels.

顯而易見的是，每季、每學期都會有一批不同等級的新客戶。

But clearly with the hiking cycle, it's going to take a while to work through that.

但顯然，在健行週期中，需要一段時間才能解決這個問題。

And we're still peeling off the moratorium.

我們仍在取消暫停令。

So people are just getting used to paying their student loans again or maybe not yet used to paying their student loans again.

因此，人們剛剛習慣再次支付學生貸款，或者可能尚未習慣再次支付學生貸款。

So there's probably a little bit of transition and just seeing that sticker shock a little bit and then going out and figuring out if there's a better alternative.

因此，可能需要一些過渡，只是看到一點貼紙衝擊，然後出去尋找是否有更好的替代方案。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰·潘卡里，Evercore。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Hey, everyone, this is Nathan Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor.

大家好，我是內森·斯坦，代表馬特·奧康納。

So you talked about the rise in C&I net charge offs this quarter, which were from the three credits that had been previously reserved for.

因此，您談到了本季 C&I 淨沖銷的增加，這些沖銷來自之前預留的三個貸項。

I wanted to ask what industries were these loans in?

我想問一下，這些貸款都投向了哪些行業？

And we saw the updated charge off guidance for full year '24, but are you expecting other similarly sized losses in the coming quarters?

我們看到了 24 年全年更新的沖銷指引，但您是否預期未來幾季還會出現類似規模的虧損？

So, Nathan, this is Chris.

那麼，內森，這是克里斯。

So specifically, the three credits, two of them were in consumer products, one of them was in equipment, manufacturing, having nothing to do with consumer products.

具體來說，這三個學分，其中兩個是消費品，一個是設備、製造，與消費品無關。

So those were the three credits.

這就是三學分。

Each had their own idiosyncratic issues that I don't think you can get a huge read through on broad industries on those.

每個人都有自己獨特的問題，我認為你無法對這些問題進行廣泛的行業深入了解。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then if I could just ask a question on the NIM, you flagged a [2.40] level in 4Q, just given all the moving pieces.

然後，如果我可以在 NIM 上問一個問題，您會在 4Q 中標記出 [2.40] 水平，只是考慮到所有移動的部分。

I think in September, you guys have flagged a 3% NIM with just assuming a steeper yield curve down the road, not necessarily next year, but could you provide your updated thoughts on the long-term NIM just given the moving rates over the past few weeks and everything else going on at Key?

我認為在9 月份，你們已經標記了3% 的淨息差(NIM)，只是假設未來收益率曲線會更陡，不一定是明年，但考慮到過去的變動利率，你們能否提供對長期淨在息差(NIM) 的最新想法幾週後，Key 發生了什麼事？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Nathan, I think from a broad perspective, what we've said is and there's obviously a bunch of puts and takes in this.

內森，我認為從廣泛的角度來看，我們所說的是，這顯然有很多不同之處。

We've said that based on our business model, there's no reason by the end of 2025 we can't be in a range of 2.8% to 3%.

我們說過，根據我們的商業模式，到 2025 年底，我們沒有理由不能維持在 2.8% 到 3% 的範圍內。

And obviously, we're looking at different models every single day, but we still feel very comfortable with that.

顯然，我們每天都在研究不同的模型，但我們仍然對此感到非常滿意。

Zach Westerlind, UBS.

札克韋斯特林德，瑞銀集團。

Hi, good morning, this is Zach on for Erika.

嗨，早上好，我是艾莉卡的紮克。

My question is just around deposit betas.

我的問題只是關於存款貝塔值。

We saw a decent uptick in the cost of interest bearing deposits this quarter.

我們看到本季計息存款成本大幅上升。

Just kind of wanted to get your thoughts on how you're thinking about the trajectory for that deposit beta going forward.

只是想了解您對存款測試版未來發展軌蹟的看法。

Yeah, sure.

是的，當然。

So maybe just get to the quarter movement first and then transition to beta.

因此，也許先進行季度變動，然後再過渡到測試版。

So up 11 basis points interest bearing deposit costs in the quarter, [7] of that was an intentional move into higher cost deposits, but deposits that were lower cost of wholesale funding.

因此，本季的計息存款成本上升了 11 個基點，[7] 其中，這是有意轉向成本較高的存款，但批發融資成本較低的存款。

So we paid off about $4.5 billion of FHLB advances at a higher rate.

因此，我們以更高的利率償還了約 45 億美元的 FHLB 預付款。

And I think the more important number versus the 11 basis points on deposit costs is overall funding costs only up 1 basis point.

我認為，與存款成本 11 個基點相比，更重要的數字是整體融資成本僅上升 1 個基點。

So at the end of the day, what we're managing is the overall funding costs and obviously, deposits are a critical part of that.

因此，歸根究底，我們要管理的是整體融資成本，顯然，存款是其中的關鍵部分。

As it relates to betas, we had expected something in the maybe low to mid-20s on the first cuts.

由於與 Beta 版本相關，我們預計第一次削減的結果可能會在 20 多歲左右。

We are expecting to be closer to low to mid 30s, potentially.

我們預計可能會接近 30 歲左右。

Some of that is we just leaned into different portfolios a little bit more aggressively than we thought we could because we felt comfortable that we understood the dynamics of those.

其中一些原因是，我們只是比我們想像的更積極地傾向於不同的投資組合，因為我們對了解這些投資組合的動態感到放心。

The other piece is the 50 basis point cut in September gave us a little bit more room to take action if that had been 25, I think you would have seen a lower beta on that first cut.

另一件事是 9 月降息 50 個基點，如果降息為 25 個基點，那麼我們就有了更多採取行動的空間，我想你會看到第一次降息的貝塔值較低。

So, as we say pretty frequently, I think the not only absolute level of rates, but how much they're moving on any one cut tends to impact how much beta you can see as a reaction to that.

因此，正如我們經常說的那樣，我認為不僅利率的絕對水平，而且任何一次降息的幅度都會影響你可以看到多少貝塔值作為對此的反應。

So the 50 basis points on a net basis creates a little bit more drag in 2024, but it also gave us the ability to take a little bit more aggressive action on deposit pricing.

因此，50 個基點的淨值在 2024 年會產生更多的阻力，但它也使我們有能力對存款定價採取更積極的行動。

Helpful.

有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And just as a follow-up to that on the non-interest bearing deposit front, any color that you can share on that in terms of when you think that we'll reach a bottom there or pivot to growth.

正如無息存款的後續行動一樣，當您認為我們將觸底或轉向成長時，您可以分享任何顏色。

Any thoughts there would be helpful.

任何想法都會有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So maybe just a reminder there too.

所以也許也只是一個提醒。

So what our reported number shows down [take] around 19%, recall that we used pretty actively a hybrid account for our commercial clients that has a fair bit of noninterest bearing deposits in it.

因此，我們報告的數字顯示下降了 19% 左右，回想一下，我們非常積極地為商業客戶使用混合帳戶，其中有相當多的無利息存款。

If you adjust for those, which we think is appropriate, you get pretty flat at 24% quarter to quarter.

如果你對這些進行調整（我們認為這是適當的），你會發現每季的成長率都持平於 24%。

So I think in aggregate, it's starting to stabilize.

所以我認為總的來說，它開始穩定下來。

We would expect with rate cuts that it's going to be stable.

我們預計，隨著降息，經濟將保持穩定。

And if the rate cuts continue, we would expect it to potentially start to tick up.

如果降息持續下去，我們預期利率可能會開始上升。

And some of that is frankly the way those hybrid accounts work.

坦白說，其中一些就是這些混合帳戶的工作方式。

So over time, we were thinking this is at or near the bottom of that percentage.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們認為這已處於或接近該百分比的底部。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Hey, I apologize if this has already been covered.

嘿，如果這已經被報道過，我很抱歉。

But can you talk about expenses for 2025?

但可以談談2025年的開支嗎？

Just given that you have a lot more capital to work with now, growth should be accelerating next year.

鑑於你現在有更多的資本可以使用，明年的成長應該會加速。

You have some investment spend to make plus you have been pretty good with managing expenses over the past few years.

你有一些投資支出要做，而且過去幾年你在管理支出方面做得很好。

So just given all of that, how should we think about expenses in 2025?

考慮到所有這些，我們應該如何考慮 2025 年的支出？

Sure, fair question.

當然，這是公平的問題。

We're obviously going through the planning cycle now, but I've mentioned before and this won't change, we will be targeting low to mid-single digits for 2025.

顯然，我們現在正在經歷規劃週期，但我之前已經提到過，這一點不會改變，我們的目標是 2025 年達到低至中個位數。

Our discipline around expenses won't change in spite of the fact that we're going to obviously have a significant amount of capital.

儘管我們顯然將擁有大量資本，但我們對支出的紀律不會改變。

You do see in the fourth quarter and we gave guidance on this, that we're investing a little bit in the fourth quarter and that's really just some unique opportunities that we have to kind of advance the business in light of the tailwinds that we're picking up from both the rundown of our swaps and treasuries and also the repositioning of the balance sheet that Clark walked everyone through.

你確實在第四季度看到了這一點，我們對此給出了指導，我們在第四季度進行了一些投資，這實際上只是一些獨特的機會，我們必鬚根據我們的順風推進業務。介紹了我們的掉期和國債清單以及資產負債表的重新定位。

So maybe one additional point just I think is embedded in Chris's comment, but I just want to make it explicitly Manan, which is we would tell you not to annualize that Q4 number going into '25.

因此，也許我認為克里斯的評論中包含了另外一點，但我只想明確地指出馬南，即我們會告訴您不要將進入 25 年的第四季度數字按年計算。

I don't think that's appropriate as Chris mentioned, we're leaning into higher fee growth.

我認為這並不合適，正如克里斯所提到的，我們傾向於更高的費用成長。

So we're going to see incentive comp go up a bit.

因此，我們將看到激勵補償略有上升。

Stock price is a little bit higher.

股價稍微高一點。

We've got some unique investment opportunities we're assessing in the fourth quarter that we're interested in taking to get a head start on '25.

我們正在第四季度評估一些獨特的投資機會，我們有興趣利用這些機會在 25 年取得領先地位。

But I think the underlying point that Chris made is worth repeating, which is we don't see the benefit of higher earnings or the investment as a path to losing our expense discipline here.

但我認為克里斯提出的基本觀點值得重複，那就是我們不認​​為更高收益或投資的好處是失去我們的支出紀律的途徑。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then I appreciate the comments on the near term deposit betas, but wanted to get your thoughts on just longer term as you think through the cycle should deposit betas on the way down match deposit betas on the way up or given that loan growth will be stronger this time than it was when deposit -- when rates were going up, will deposit betas likely be a little bit slower through the cycle?

然後，我很欣賞對近期存款貝塔值的評論，但想了解您對長期存款貝塔值的看法，因為您認為在整個週期中，存款貝塔值應該與存款貝塔值的上升相匹配，或者考慮到貸款成長將是這次比存款時更強——當利率上升時，存款貝塔值在整個週期中是否可能會稍微慢一些？

Yeah, great.

是的，太棒了。

It's a great question with no simple answer because you hit a bunch of the moving parts.

這是一個很好的問題，沒有簡單的答案，因為你碰到了一堆活動部件。

So subject to funding needs on the balance sheet that obviously drives the requirement to have deposit balances, which in effect then hit your pricing.

因此，受資產負債表上的資金需求的影響，這顯然會推動存款餘額的要求，這實際上會影響您的定價。

What I would say maybe more broadly is, I think the absolute level of rates matter and the amount of movement in rates matter.

我想說的也許更廣泛的是，我認為利率的絕對水準很重要，利率的變動幅度也很重要。

So if we hit kind of peaked at mid-50s, 56%, I think beta on the way up, I think that's more than probably you would have expected at the beginning of the cycle.

因此，如果我們在 50 年代中期達到峰值，即 56%，我認為貝塔值正在上升，我認為這可能超出您在周期開始時的預期。

But it's also a function of rates moving up over 500 basis points off of zero.

但這也是利率從零上調超過 500 個基點的函數。

So your relative starting zero, you're moving up by [500, 550 basis points], that's a huge move.

因此，相對從零開始，您將上漲 [500, 550 個基點]，這是一個巨大的變動。

And you're getting obviously to that 5% level.

顯然你已經達到 5% 的水平了。

I think on the way down, I would expect it to be somewhat parallel, but probably not getting to the mid-50s, maybe it's a 50 number because you're not likely to get back to zero unless some exogenous event occurs.

我認為在下降的過程中，我預計它會有點平行，但可能不會達到 50 年代中期，也許它是一個 50 的數字，因為除非發生一些外生事件，否則你不太可能回到零。

So if we hit some terminal rate path, that's 2.5%, 3%.

因此，如果我們達到某個最終利率路徑，那就是 2.5%、3%。

I think you're going to see beta deployed and beta deployed over time fairly aggressively, but I don't think you get to the same levels just because the magnitude of the change is 50% to 60% of the way up.

我認為隨著時間的推移，您會看到 Beta 版的部署和 Beta 版的部署相當積極，但我認為您不會僅僅因為變化的幅度增加 50% 到 60% 就達到相同的水平。

And that then you have to account for the other element which is loans and required balances for funding.

然後你必須考慮另一個因素，即貸款和所需的資金餘額。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Mike Mayo，富國銀行。

Hey, can you comment on the increase in NPLs a little bit more?

嘿，您能對不良貸款的增加多評論一下嗎？

Is that -- like how many credits is that?

那是——比如有多少學分？

Is that a trend?

這是一種趨勢嗎？

Is that something that you guys are worried about?

這是你們擔心的事情嗎？

Was that unexpected?

這是出乎意料的嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, Mike, it's Chris.

是的，麥克，是克里斯。

We think that's sort of peaking.

我們認為這已經達到頂峰了。

There's nothing in particular, it's kind of broad based and as we said in our opening comments, we don't think it's material or reflect.

沒有什麼特別的，它具有廣泛的基礎，正如我們在開場評論中所說，我們認為它不重要或反映。

I don't think there's any read through from that.

我認為沒有任何內容可以閱讀。

So next quarter, we shouldn't expect anything like that is what you're saying.

因此，下個季度，我們不應期望出現您所說的那樣的情況。

Well, I think NPLs will be pretty flat as we go forward.

嗯，我認為隨著我們的前進，不良貸款將相當平穩。

I mean, that would be what I would assume for your models.

我的意思是，這就是我對你的模型的假設。

If you're talking NCOs Mike, the three credits, then yeah, we don't expect that to recur.

如果你說的是軍士麥克，三個學分，那麼是的，我們不希望這種情況再次發生。

The benefit to the extent there is some there is that those were almost entirely reserved and that was a big portion of the release as well.

某種程度上的好處是，這些幾乎完全被保留，這也是發布的很大一部分。

And then one last cleanup question.

然後是最後一個清理問題。

So you had already thought that NII would be 20% higher next year.

所以您已經認為明年 NII 會上漲 20%。

And then you sold $7 billion of the securities near high.

然後你在接近高點的位置賣出了 70 億美元的證券。

So I assume you got a nice yield pickup.

所以我假設你的收益率得到了不錯的提升。

So better lucky than smart or maybe you have some great timing there.

所以運氣好比聰明好，或者也許你有一些很好的時機。

But -- so why wouldn't that 20% number for the increase in NII in 2025 versus 2024 go higher because of that fortuitous investing of those securities?

但是，為什麼 2025 年 NII 成長 20% 的數字不會因為這些證券的偶然投資而比 2024 年更高呢？

Yeah.

是的。

So, I'll take lucky or good either.

所以，我要嘛選擇幸運，要嘛選擇良好。

But just to remind you, Mike, the 20% that we shared contemplated the repositioning.

但麥克，我想提醒您一下，我們分享的 20% 的人考慮過重新定位。

So what we're talking about is marginal improvement on the reinvestment.

所以我們談的是再投資的邊際改善。

We're really happy with where we did it and we took advantage of that pick up in rates, but that's relative to maybe it's a handful of basis points that are not that -- that 20% wasn't -- had already contemplated the repositioning of that portfolio.

我們對我們所做的事情感到非常滿意，我們利用了利率上升的機會，但這可能是相對於一些基點而言的，而這些基點並不是——20％不是——我們已經考慮過重新定位該投資組合。

So, again, I think

所以，我再次認為

--

--

It still in fact contemplates the second piece.

事實上它仍在思考第二部分。

Yeah, correct.

是的，正確。

So it is a marginal benefit which we take, but it isn't the entire magnitude of that trade that is added on top to the 20%.

因此，我們獲得的是邊際收益，但並不是添加到 20% 之上的整個貿易規模。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

Good morning.

早安.

I'm sorry about the technical problems earlier.

對於之前出現的技術問題，我深感抱歉。

Not a problem.

不是問題。

Good morning, John.

早安，約翰。

Good morning.

早安.

A couple of real quick questions.

幾個真正的快速問題。

On the capital markets, revenue side, I know you flagged some very solid pipelines and building pipelines there and your expectation to hit the high end of the $600 million to $650 million guide, Chris, I know when you've had this type of confidence in the past, you actually called out the likelihood of a of a record year the following year as well.

在資本市場、收入方面，我知道您標記了一些非常可靠的管道並在那裡建造管道，並且您期望達到 6 億至 6.5 億美元指南的高端，克里斯，我知道您什麼時候有這種信心過去，您實際上也指出了下一年創紀錄年份的可能性。

I believe you did that last year.

我相信你去年就這麼做了。

Could you maybe provide your thoughts on 2025 here?

您能在這裡談談您對 2025 年的看法嗎？

Just given the progression you're seeing, maybe how we see that playing out in terms of your capital markets as you look at heading into '25?

考慮到您所看到的進展，也許當您進入 25 世紀時，我們如何看待您的資本市場的發展？

Yeah, fair question.

是的，公平的問題。

So clearly sort of embedded in our guidance for 2024, if you kind of do the math is another step up in the fourth quarter, maybe $180 million or so.

因此，我們對 2024 年的指導明確包含了這一點，如果你算一下，第四季的另一個進步可能是 1.8 億美元左右。

If you kind of just back into it, I feel good about the trajectory.

如果你重新回到它，我對這個軌跡感覺很好。

I think if we continue to have this kind of an environment where rates are stabilizing and people are able to transact, I'm optimistic about 2025, we'll give more guidance on that John, when we gather after the end of the year.

我認為，如果我們繼續保持這種利率穩定且人們能夠進行交易的環境，我對 2025 年持樂觀態度，當我們在年底後聚會時，我們將為約翰提供更多指導。

But I think you should assume that a lot of these pipelines have pretty long tails and so we should go into 2025 with a fair amount of momentum.

但我認為你應該假設很多管道都有相當長的尾部，因此我們應該以相當大的勢頭進入 2025 年。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks Chris.

謝謝克里斯。

And just two more quick ones on the loan growth front, I believe you mentioned relative stability as you look into 2025 given the trends you're seeing, given consumer likely declining, but commercial increases, are you able to give us a better idea of the piece of growth that you think is reasonable?

關於貸款成長方面還有兩個快速的問題，我相信您在展望2025 年時提到了相對穩定性，考慮到您所看到的趨勢，考慮到消費者可能會下降，但商業成長，您能否讓我們更了解您認為哪一塊成長比較合理？

And what type of growth more specifically on the commercial side do you think that can help offset consumer pressure?

您認為在商業方面更具體地說，哪種類型的成長可以幫助抵銷消費者的壓力？

So we'll, we'll provide a little bit more color there, but just maybe broadly think about consumer loans coming down $2 billion to $3 billion in a year just by natural kind of maturity and paydown.

因此，我們將在那裡提供更多的色彩，但也許只是廣泛地考慮一下，僅通過自然的到期和還款方式，消費者貸款在一年內就會減少 20 億至 30 億美元。

Now that could change based on rate levels and mortgage markets, but that's kind of a decent rule of thumb there.

現在，這可能會根據利率水平和抵押貸款市場而改變，但這是一個不錯的經驗法則。

As it relates to where we would see some pickup in commercial, I'll make a couple of comments and then Chris can add on to it.

由於這與我們在廣告中看到的一些回升有關，我將發表一些評論，然後克里斯可以補充。

But in places where we have demonstrated strength and I think mostly of like affordable and renewables which tend to be project transactions, they tend to be construction in nature.

但在我們展示實力的地方，我認為主要是價格實惠的可再生能源，它們往往是專案交易，它們本質上往往是建築。

So they build through time and then we perm them out in some form.

所以它們是隨著時間的推移而建立的，然後我們以某種形式將它們加工出來。

Those I think are places where we're starting, where we -- in affordable, we've been pretty consistent, but we're seeing pick up there.

我認為這些是我們開始的地方，我們在負擔得起的地方，我們一直相當穩定，但我們看到那裡有所回升。

I think the opportunity to build that over time and those loans do take time to materialize just because they are large projects.

我認為隨著時間的推移，建立這個專案的機會和這些貸款確實需要時間才能實現，因為它們是大型專案。

They do build from a draw standpoint before they're ready to be fully drawn and sold.

在準備好完全繪製和出售之前，它們確實是從繪製的角度進行構建的。

So those are two places where I just continue to feel confident about our abilities and the market.

因此，在這兩個方面，我仍然對我們的能力和市場充滿信心。

But there's some broader based opportunities I think as well.

但我認為還有一些更廣泛的機會。

Yeah, the only thing I'd add Clark is, as I mentioned earlier, I think the transaction business will generate loans because that's picking up sort of the wild card that all of us are watching is what's going to happen with our existing client base in terms of really investing in CapEx and what's going to happen with utilization.

是的，克拉克，我唯一要補充的是，正如我之前提到的，我認為交易業務將產生貸款，因為這會帶來我們所有人都在關注的未知因素，那就是我們現有客戶群將會發生什麼就資本支出的實際投資以及利用率將發生的情況而言。

And I think that's just a watch point for all of us.

我認為這只是我們所有人的一個觀察點。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

I do have one last one, sorry about that.

我還有最後一張，抱歉。

On the loan loss reserve, you did on a loan to -- on reserve ratio basis, you did bleed the reserve modestly this quarter, perhaps provide us a little bit of thoughts around the potential for incremental releases here as you see credit playing out, given the economic outlook.

在貸款損失準備金方面，您在準備金率的基礎上做了一筆貸款，本季度您確實適度地減少了準備金，也許為我們提供了一些關於當您看到信貸發揮作用時增量釋放潛力的一些想法，考慮到經濟前景。

So we view -- you're right, 3 basis points, I think down on the ACL, so pretty stable.

所以我們認為——你是對的，我認為 ACL 下降了 3 個基點，所以相當穩定。

We built it up quite significantly over the last several quarters.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們對其進行了相當大的建設。

I think if you did a loan kind of portfolio by portfolio mix, it might dictate that we could even be lower.

我認為，如果您按投資組合進行貸款類型的投資組合，則可能表明我們甚至可以更低。

But right now, we're still looking at, you know, we're being cautious around migration and where some of the late cycle pieces of this are taking us.

但現在，我們仍在關注，你知道，我們對移民持謹慎態度，以及其中一些後期週期的部分將帶我們走向何方。

I think if rates continue to come down.

我認為如果利率繼續下降。

And as Chris noted, the environment remains constructive that may give us some opportunity.

正如克里斯指出的，環境仍然具有建設性，可能會給我們一些機會。

But right now, we feel like stability is probably the right place.

但現在，我們覺得穩定可能是正確的選擇。

I mean, there's really three things that, that drive these.

我的意思是，確實有三件事推動了這些。

One is your view of the macro.

一是你對宏觀的看法。

And you obviously have a perspective on that.

顯然你對此有自己的看法。

The next is sort of idiosyncratic.

接下來的情況有點特別。

And obviously if we were aware of idiosyncratic things, we would be as we aggressively took on the three loans that we talked about today, we'd be moving on those.

顯然，如果我們意識到特殊的事情，我們就會像我們積極地接受我們今天討論的三筆貸款一樣，我們會繼續這些貸款。

And the third element is the size of the book.

第三個要素是書的大小。

So those are kind of the three elements.

這就是三個要素。

And so if you think about each of those three, obviously, it begs the question of where should the reserve be?

因此，如果你考慮這三個因素中的每一個，顯然，這就引出了一個問題：保護區應該在哪裡？

We'll continue to evaluate it.

我們將繼續對其進行評估。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特，D.A.戴維森。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to follow up on John's questions on the loans just for the fourth quarter.

我想跟進約翰關於第四季度貸款的問題。

You didn't change the full year guidance for the average, which would imply that there's going to be some decent growth in the fourth quarter.

您沒有改變全年平均指引，這意味著第四季將會出現一些不錯的成長。

And I was just wondering if you could talk about maybe just the what you're expecting for fourth quarter loan trends.

我只是想知道您是否可以談談您對第四季度貸款趨勢的預期。

Yeah, so I mean, we took the ending point down a bit.

是的，所以我的意思是，我們把終點降低了一點。

I think that'll take us to the overall kind of lower end of the average guide.

我認為這將把我們帶到平均指南的總體較低端。

Look, I think we're expecting some stability on the loan side at this point, not a huge amount of growth, I'd say some modest growth.

看，我認為目前我們預計貸款方面會保持一定的穩定性，而不是大幅增長，我想說的是一些溫和的增長。

But whether or not we get that, I don't think really impacts our view on NII in the quarter.

但無論我們是否明白這一點，我認為都不會真正影響我們對本季 NII 的看法。

We'd obviously like to start seeing some loan growth.

我們顯然希望開始看到一些貸款成長。

So at this point, I'd say it's more stabilizing than it is really picking up.

所以在這一點上，我想說它比真正的回升更穩定。

Okay.

好的。

And then Chris if I could just ask one big picture question, obviously, you're getting the second tranche of the investment from Scotia, the focus would be the securities restructuring along with organic growth.

然後，克里斯，如果我可以問一個大問題，顯然，您將從 Scotia 獲得第二筆投資，重點是證券重組和有機增長。

But just with now that you've built up your capital levels, just can I ask how you think about bank M&A going forward?

但現在您已經建立了資本水平，我可以問您如何看待未來的銀行併購嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So the premise of your question is right.

所以你這個問題的前提是對的。

So think about us raising $2.8 billion and we basically in the aggregate spend $1.4 billion on the restructuring, then we have an additional $1.5 billion.

因此，考慮我們籌集了 28 億美元，基本上我們總共花費了 14 億美元用於重組，那麼我們還有額外的 15 億美元。

And on a pro forma basis, I think you'll see our CET1, it's a 12% and you'll see our marked CET1, it's a 10%.

在準備考試的基礎上，我想你會看到我們的 CET1，它是 12%，你會看到我們標記的 CET1，它是 10%。

So clearly, we'll have dry powder that we'll be able to -- if there's dislocation in the market, we'll be able to take advantage of that.

很明顯，我們將擁有我們能夠做到的乾粉——如果市場出現混亂，我們將能夠利用這一點。

We'll probably run with a little higher capital just in the near term until there's finalization of the Basel III end game, the liquidity rules, the long-term debt.

我們可能會在短期內以更高的資本運行，直到巴塞爾協議 III 最終遊戲、流動性規則和長期債務最終確定。

But I do believe Peter that there will be consolidation in our industry.

但我確實相信彼得，我們的產業將會整合。

There certainly hasn't been for all the reasons that you are well aware of.

當然，並非出於您所熟知的所有原因。

I think last year there were three significant deals completed.

我認為去年完成了三筆重大交易。

My experience with consolidation is when it happens, it happens kind of in waves and clearly, with this additional [capital], I think we'd be well-positioned if and when that were to happen, it's not something we're focused on now, however.

我對整合的經驗是，當它發生時，它會以波浪式的方式發生，顯然，有了這些額外的[資本]，我認為如果發生這種情況，我們就會處於有利的位置，這不是我們關注的事情然而現在。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Thank you for taking the follow-up.

感謝您的關注。

Clark if possible, wanted to just revisit the expense outlook, particularly in the fourth quarter.

如果可能的話，克拉克想重新審視費用前景，特別是第四季的費用前景。

It seems to be generating a lot of traffic this morning.

今天早上它似乎產生了很多流量。

I know you said higher stock price will impact incentive comp.

我知道你說過更高的股價會影響激勵補償。

And then I think you said some kind of proactive investments as well.

然後我想你也提到了某種主動投資。

But at a point, I think I might have heard the foundation contribution as well.

但在某個時刻，我想我可能也聽過基金會的貢獻。

Are you able to sort of parse if we're going to see maybe $100 million of total expense left in the fourth quarter?

如果我們會看到第四季的總支出可能剩下 1 億美元，您能分析一下嗎？

How much of that is ongoing stuff versus what people might sort of pull out as transitory?

其中有多少是持續存在的東西，與人們可能認為是暫時的東西相比？

And then also appreciate that you suggested already not to annualize that, but just hoping for a little more deep dive in there if possible.

然後也要感謝您已經建議不要將其年度化，而是希望在可能的情況下進行更深入的研究。

Yeah, it's a good question.

是的，這是一個好問題。

I think the annual -- the main point which you picked up on which was don't annualize that number, I think the fair point is some of our business is variable in nature based on performance, so hard to quantify that.

我認為年度——你所提到的要點是不要將這個數字按年計算，我認為公平的一點是我們的一些業務本質上是根據業績而變化的，所以很難量化這一點。

But frankly, if we have the revenues that dictate, we should be paying compensation on that, we would take those like at any day of the week.

但坦白說，如果我們有足夠的收入，我們應該為此支付補償，我們會在一周中的任何一天採取這些補償。

So I think you have to think about some of that expense growth in the context of the revenue that's driving it.

因此，我認為您必須在推動支出成長的收入背景下考慮其中的一些支出成長。

As Chris said, we're, we're potentially leaning into some unique opportunities in the quarter.

正如克里斯所說，我們可能會在本季抓住一些獨特的機會。

Those are going to be by their nature, not necessarily recurring.

這些都是它們的本質，不一定會重複出現。

And I don't have a specific number for you, but clearly it's not appropriate to take the full amount of that.

我沒有具體的數字給你，但顯然全額拿走是不合適的。

And I think we just -- we got to fine tune a little bit how much expense rolls into the run rate quarter and a lot of that's going to be based on how much revenue we think it's supporting.

我認為我們只是 - 我們必須稍微調整一下運行率季度的費用，其中很大一部分將基於我們認為它支持的收入多少。

So we just need to do a little bit more work to give you a clean look, but I do think again, the appropriate guide at this point would be mid to single digits for next year.

因此，我們只需要做更多的工作，讓您看到一個乾淨的外觀，但我確實再次認為，目前適當的指導將是明年的中位數到個位數。

And we owe you, as I said, more detail when we come back at the end of the year.

正如我所說，當我們年底回來時，我們欠你們更多的細節。

And at this time, there are no further questions.

而此時，已經沒有其他問題了。

I'd now like to turn the call back to Chris Gorman for any closing comments.

我現在想將電話轉回給克里斯·戈爾曼，請其發表最後評論。

Again, we thank you for participating in our call today.

我們再次感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。

If you have any follow up questions, you can direct them to Brian and our Investor Relations team.

如果您有任何後續問題，可以直接聯絡 Brian 和我們的投資者關係團隊。

We appreciate everyone's interest in Key and hope everyone has a great day.

我們感謝大家對 Key 的興趣，並希望大家有個愉快的一天。

Goodbye.

再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference.

感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。