KeyCorp (KEY) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Please standby for streaming text.

請等待串流文字。

Thank you, everyone, for standing by and welcome to the 2024 third quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to turn things over to Brian Mauney, KeyCorp Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

感謝大家的耐心等待並歡迎參加 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想把事情交給 KeyCorp 投資者關係總監 Brian Mauney。 請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Clarke Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be done on the Investor Relations section of the KeyCorp website.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。 感謝您參加 KeyCorp 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 我和我們的董事長兼首席執行官克里斯·戈爾曼 (Chris Gorman) 以及我們的首席財務官克拉克·卡亞特 (Clarke Khayat) 一起來到這裡。 像往常一樣，我們將參考我們的收益簡報幻燈片，這可以在 KeyCorp 網站的投資者關係部分完成。

In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures, is covers our earnings materials as well as the remarks made on this morning's call. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements and those statements speak only as of today, October 17, 2024, and will not be updated. With that, I will turn it over to Chris.

在簡報的後面，您會發現我們關於前瞻性揭露和某些財務指標（包括非公認會計原則指標）的聲明涵蓋了我們的收益資料以及今天早上電話會議上的言論。 實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異，這些陳述僅代表截至今天（2024 年 10 月 17 日）的情況，並且不會更新。 這樣，我就把它交給克里斯了。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. I'm on Slide 2. Before I hand it over to Clark to review our financial results, I wanted to provide my perspective on a quarter that represented significant progress for Key as we position ourselves for the future.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。 我在投影片 2 上。

First, we received the initial $821 million, a little less than one-third of the anticipated minority investment from Scotiabank a t the end of August. We used approximately $700 million of the proceeds to reposition our securities portfolio.

首先，我們收到了 8.21 億美元的初始資金，略低於 8 月底豐業銀行預計少數股權投資的三分之一。我們使用約 7 億美元的收益來重新定位我們的證券投資組合。

In retrospect, this trade was fortuitously timed. Long-dated securities were sold near recent bond market highs in mid-September, which enabled us to sell over $7 billion of market value of securities out of a total available for sale portfolio up $37 billion.

回想起來，這筆交易的時機很偶然。 9 月中旬，長期證券在近期債券市場高點附近出售，這使我們能夠出售市值超過 70 億美元的證券，而可供出售的投資組合總額高達 370 億美元。

At this point, we have fully invested the proceeds at better than anticipated yields in more liquid, less capital intensive, shorter duration agency MBS. We anticipate these actions will add over $40 million of quarterly net interest income in the fourth quarter. As for the remainder of the $2.8 billion Scotiabank minority investment, we are now through the public comment period, and we continue to expect to receive regulatory approval by first quarter of 2025.

至此，我們已將收益以高於預期的收益率全部投資於流動性更強、資本密集程度較低、期限較短的機構MBS。 我們預計這些行動將在第四季度增加超過 4,000 萬美元的季度淨利息收入。 至於豐業銀行少數股權投資 28 億美元的剩餘部分，我們目前已進入公眾意見徵詢期，我們繼續預計在 2025 年第一季之前獲得監管部門的批准。

Secondly, we saw the long anticipated step-up in our net interest income this quarter, up 7% quarter over quarter. This reflected a combination of a more meaningful amount of low yielding short-term swaps and treasuries maturing as well as proactive management of our funding costs. We also continued to grow our client deposits up 4% year over year and 2% sequentially.

其次，我們看到了本季淨利息收入的成長，比上一季成長了 7%，這是我們期待已久的。 這反映出更有意義的低收益短期掉期和到期國債以及對我們融資成本的主動管理的結合。 我們的客戶存款也持續成長，較去年同期成長 4%，較上季成長 2%。

We achieved NII growth despite some near-term impact as a result of the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut in mid-September. We mitigated a portion of the cut through a very proactive and disciplined deposit repricing plan, which is a testament to the preparedness of our consumer and commercial deposit teams.

儘管聯準會 9 月中旬降息 50 個基點帶來了一些短期影響，但我們仍實現了 NII 成長。我們透過非常主動和嚴格的存款重新定價計劃減輕了部分削減，這證明了我們的消費者和商業存款團隊已做好準備。

As a result, our beta in the initial Fed cut is anticipated to be higher than we had previously modeled and communicated. Thirdly, we continued to see strong momentum across our most important fee-based organic growth initiatives. Investment banking and placement fees were very strong at $171 million, one of the best quarters in our history.

因此，我們預計聯準會首次降息的貝塔值將高於我們先前建模和傳達的結果。 第三，我們最重要的收費有機成長計畫持續保持強勁勢頭。 投資銀行業務和安置費用非常強勁，達到 1.71 億美元，這是我們歷史上最好的季度之一。

Activity was broad-based with volumes, particularly robust cross loan syndications as well as debt and equity originations. Pipelines remain at historically elevated levels. Despite the third quarter, pull through. Pipelines are stable compared to the June 30 levels and up meaningfully compared to year end and year ago levels.

活動基礎廣泛、數量眾多，尤其是交叉貸款銀團以及債務和股權發行強勁。 管道仍處於歷史高點。 儘管第三季度，渡過難關。與 6 月 30 日的水平相比，管道數量穩定，與年底和去年同期的水平相比顯著上升。

M&A backlogs, which we have said in the past, have a two to three times multiplier effect with near record levels and up 10% compared to the prior quarter. At this point, I am confident we will hit the high end of our full year target for investment banking fees of $600 million to $650 million with an opportunity to exceed the high end if our pipelines pull through prior to year end.

我們過去曾說過，併購積壓具有兩到三倍的乘數效應，接近歷史最高水平，與上一季相比增長了 10%。 目前，我相信我們將達到 6 億至 6.5 億美元投資銀行費用全年目標的高端，如果我們的管道在年底前完成，我們還有機會超過高端。

Again, assuming markets remain hospitable.

再次假設市場仍然熱情好客。

In commercial payments, leveraging our focus on primacy, commercial deposits were up 5% year over year and 2% sequentially. As a reminder, 93% of these balances are tied to an operating account. Underlying core treasury service activities remain strong, growing in the low double digits. We believe we are well-positioned in this area to benefit as rates continue to decline.

在商業支付方面，憑藉我們對首要地位的關注，商業存款年增5%，季增2%。 提醒一下，這些餘額中有 93% 與營運帳戶相關。 基礎核心資金服務活動依然強勁，以低兩位數成長。 我們相信，隨著利率持續下降，我們在這一領域處於有利地位，能夠受益。

Our third party commercial mortgage servicing business posted a record quarter due to a small portfolio acquisition over the summer. Additionally, active special servicing balances reached a record $7.5 billion. As a reminder, this is a countercyclical off of business that also provides us with unique insights into the commercial real estate market.

由於夏季的小規模投資組合收購，我們的第三方商業抵押貸款服務業務創下了創紀錄的季度業績。 此外，活躍的特別服務餘額達到創紀錄的 75 億美元。 提醒一下，這是一個逆週期的業務，也為我們提供了對商業房地產市場的獨特見解。

We are currently seeing high rates of transfers into special servicing, concentrated in office and to a lesser extent, multifamily, even as we have also seen resolutions accelerate as we move through the year. In wealth, assets under management reached an all-time high of $61 million, up 16% from the prior year. Sales production was a record this quarter and we are on track for a record year.

目前，我們看到轉入特殊服務的比例很高，主要集中在辦公室，在較小程度上是多戶住宅，儘管我們也看到隨著這一年的推移，解決方案的速度加快。 在財富方面，管理資產達到歷史新高，達到 6,100 萬美元，比上年增長 16%。 本季的銷售產量創歷史新高，我們今年有望創紀錄。

While the entire wealth business is performing well, we continue to see particularly stock strong traction in our mass affluent segment. This quarter, we enrolled an additional 5,000 households and added $620 million of assets to the platform. In only 18 months, we have added over 36,000 households and about $3.6 billion of new household assets to Key.

儘管整個財富業務表現良好，但我們仍然看到大眾富裕階層的股票特別強勁。 本季度，我們新增了 5,000 個家庭，並為該平台增加了 6.2 億美元的資產。 僅在 18 個月內，我們就為 Key 增加了超過 36,000 個家庭和約 36 億美元的新家庭資產。

As a reminder (technical difficulty) provision for credit losses were essentially flat. Net charge offs, as expected were up and reflected a few specific C&I credits that were known and had been mostly reserved against. Importantly, criticized loans declined by $132 million. We also saw marked improvement in our net credit upgrades downgrades trends, which while still slightly negative moved back to our trailing 13 quarter average. We believe that NPLs are peaking and criticized loans will continue to decline from current levels.

提醒一下（技術難度），信用損失撥備基本持平。 正如預期的那樣，淨沖銷有所增加，反映了一些已知且大部分已保留的特定 C&I 信貸。 重要的是，受到批評的貸款減少了 1.32 億美元。 我們也看到淨信用升級降級趨勢顯著改善，儘管仍略有負值，但已回到了過去 13 個季度的平均值。 我們認為，不良貸款正在見頂，受到批評的貸款將繼續從目前的水平下降。

In summary, I am proud of the significant progress we made as a company. This quarter, we announced the strategic minority investment from Scotiabank closing on the initial one-third tranche. A few weeks later, we deployed most of that successfully completing one-half of our anticipated securities portfolio restructuring.

總之，我為我們公司所取得的重大進步感到自豪。 本季度，我們宣布豐業銀行的策略性少數股權投資完成了最初的三分之一部分。 幾週後，我們部署了大部分資金，成功完成了預期證券投資組合重組的一半。

At the same time, we continue to drive broad-based momentum across the franchise, g rew o ur pipelines, delivered the first meaningful leg of the uplift in net interest income that we've been communicating over the past year and took proactive actions across the deposit books to prepare ourselves for the rate cuts, all while continuing to demonstrate a strong credit risk profile.

同時，我們繼續推動整個特許經營範圍的廣泛勢頭，擴大我們的管道，實現我們在過去一年中一直在溝通的淨利息收入增長的第一個有意義的階段，並在各個領域採取積極行動存款帳簿為降息做好準備，同時繼續表現出強勁的信用風險狀況。

As a result, despite the one-time impact of the restructuring, we improved our CET1 ratio this quarter by another 35 basis points to 10.8%. With that, I'll turn it over to Clark to provide more details on our financial results.

因此，儘管重組帶來了一次性影響，我們本季的 CET1 比率又提高了 35 個基點，達到 10.8%。 這樣，我會將其轉交給克拉克，以提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I'm now on Slide 4. The third quarter, we reported earnings per share of negative $0.47, including $0.77 impact from the previously disclosed securities portfolio repositioning.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。 我現在看的是投影片 4。

Excluding the repositioning, EPS was $0.30 per share. As Chris mentioned, in mid-September, we sold roughly $7 billion market value of mostly long dated CMOs and CMBS, which had a weighted average yield of about 2.3% and an average duration of almost six years.

不包括重新定位，每股收益為 0.30 美元。 正如 Chris 所提到的，9 月中旬，我們出售了市值約 70 億美元的 CMO 和 CMBS，其中大部分是長期 CMO 和 CMBS，其加權平均收益率約為 2.3%，平均期限近六年。

And at this point, we have reinvested all of the proceeds mostly in October when we saw term rates rise by 30 basis points to 40 basis points. As a result, we will see roughly 260 basis point yield pickup on approximately $7 billion of securities starting in the fourth quarter. These securities will also provide liquidity and capital benefits relative to what was previously owned.

目前，我們已將所有收益大部分在 10 月進行了再投資，當時我們看到期限利率上升了 30 個基點至 40 個基點。 因此，從第四季開始，我們將看到約 70 億美元證券的收益率上升約 260 個基點。 相對於先前擁有的證券，這些證券也將提供流動性和資本利得。

As a reminder, we currently contemplate doing a similar magnitude repositioning upon receiving the second tranche of the Scotiabank investment, a ssuming we get Fed approval. Reported revenue was down approximately 55% sequentially and from the prior year. But excluding the securities repositioning, revenue was up 6% sequentially and up 3% year over year, with growth across both net interest income and fees.

提醒一下，我們目前正在考慮在收到豐業銀行第二筆投資後進行類似規模的重新定位（假設我們獲得聯準會批准）。報告收入較上年同期下降約 55%。 但不包括證券重新定位，營收季增 6%，年增 3%，淨利息收入和費用均有所成長。

Expenses remain well-controlled, down 1% compared to the prior year, a little better than we previously expected. This implies about 400 basis points of positive operating leverage on a year-over-year basis. Excluding the securities portfolio repositioning, credit costs were essentially flat to the second quarter and included a $60 million release of our allowance for credit losses, reflecting primarily three charged off credits that had specific reserve allocations held against them as well as lower loan balances.

費用保持良好控制，比上年下降1%，略優於我們先前的預期。 這意味著正營運槓桿年增約 400 個基點。 不包括證券投資組合重新定位，信貸成本與第二季度基本持平，其中包括我們釋放的6000 萬美元信貸損失準備金，主要反映了三項已沖銷的信貸，這些信貸具有特定的準備金分配以及較低的貸款餘額。

Our common equity Tier one ratio increased to 10.8% and tangible book value increased nearly 16% sequentially. Moving to the balance sheet on Slide 5. Average loans declined by 5% sequentially to $106 billion and ended the quarter just above $105 billion. The decline reflects continued tepid demand, flat utilization rates, our disciplined approach as to what we're willing to put on the balance sheet. We intentional runoff of low-yielding consumer loans as they pay down immature.

我們的普通股一級資本比率增至 10.8%，有形帳面價值較上季成長近 16%。 轉到投影片 5 的資產負債表。 這種下降反映了需求持續不溫不火、利用率持平以及我們對資產負債表上願意投入的資金採取的嚴格態度。 我們故意徑流低收益消費貸款，因為它們還款不成熟。

Additionally, we built the business to be able to serve clients with on and off balance sheet solutions, whatever works best for them. This quarter, we raised $28 billion of capital for our clients. And as Chris mentioned, we had a very strong quarter of investment banking fees.

此外，我們建立的業務能夠為客戶提供資產負債表內和表外的解決方案，只要最適合他們的解決方案。 本季度，我們為客戶籌集了 280 億美元的資金。 正如克里斯所提到的，我們的投資銀行費用季度非常強勁。

At the end of the third quarter, we warehouse approximately $600 million of loans for commercial clients that you can see in loans held for sale. Additionally, throughout the quarter, we refinanced about $300 million of CRE loans off our balance sheet into permanent mortgages through our capital markets group. We continue to have active dialogue with clients and prospects of our loan pipelines continue to build.

在第三季末，我們為商業客戶儲存了約 6 億美元的貸款，您可以在待售貸款中看到這些貸款。 此外，整個季度，我們透過資本市場集團將資產負債表外約 3 億美元的 CRE 貸款再融資為永久抵押貸款。 我們繼續與客戶進行積極對話，我們的貸款管道前景不斷擴大。

Slide 6. Average deposits increased 2.5% sequentially to nearly $148 billion, reflecting growth across consumer and commercial deposits. [Point] deposits were up about 4% year over year as we manage brokered deposits down by roughly $2.2 billion from year-ago levels.

投影片 6。 [點]存款年增約 4%，因為我們管理的經紀存款較去年同期水準減少了約 22 億美元。

Reported non-interest bearing deposits declined 1% to 19% of total deposits and when adjusted for non-interest bearing deposits in our hybrid accounts, this percentage remained flat linked quarter at 24%. Both total interest-bearing deposit cost increased by 11 basis points during the quarter, 7 basis points of the increase reflected reduction of roughly $4.5 billion of FHLB funding, yielding almost 5.6% that was replaced with lower-cost client deposits.

報告的無息存款佔總存款的比例下降了 1% 至 19%，在對混合帳戶中的無息存款進行調整後，這一百分比與季度保持持平，為 24%。本季度計息存款總成本均增加了 11 個基點，其中增加 7 個基點反映了 FHLB 資金減少了約 45 億美元，收益率近 5.6%，被成本較低的客戶存款所取代。

Our overall interest bearing costs increased just 1 basis point this quarter. As Chris mentioned, we've been proactive across our deposit anticipate beginning last month. Ahead of the cut, w e shortened CD tenders and took promo rates down. In the commercial side, we move significant amount of deposits into indexed accounts following the company took rates down further across both front and back book and consumer.

本季我們的整體計息成本僅增加 1 個基點。 正如克里斯所提到的，從上個月開始，我們一直積極主動地完成存款預期。在削減之前，我們縮短了 CD 招標並降低了促銷率。 在商業方面，在公司進一步降低帳簿和消費者的利率後，我們將大量存款轉移到指數帳戶。

In commercial, we effectively pass on the majority of the cuts to clients. Our deposit beta on the first rate cut is expected to be low to mid-30s, which would benefit our fourth quarter net interest income.

在商業方面，我們實際上將大部分削減轉嫁給了客戶。 我們第一次降息的存款貝塔值預計將低至 30 多歲，這將有利於我們第四季的淨利息收入。

Moving to net interest income in the margin on slide 7, tax equivalent net interest income was $964 million, up 7% or $65 million, and the net interest margin increased 13 basis points from the prior quarter. For well-communicated net interest income opportunities now providing more benefit as a greater portion of low yielding short-term swaps and treasuries mature, Scotiabank government and our mid-September securities portfolio reposition added roughly $12 million, about 2 basis points the third quarter at NII and NIM, respectively.

轉向幻燈片 7 中利潤率中的淨利息收入，稅等淨利息收入為 9.64 億美元，成長 7%，即 6,500 萬美元，淨利差較上一季增加 13 個基點。 由於溝通良好的淨利息收入機會現在隨著低收益短期掉期和國債的大部分成熟而提供更多收益，豐業銀行政府和我們9 月中旬的證券投資組合重新定位增加了約1200 萬美元，比第三季增加了約2 個基點。

Turning to Slide 8. Reported non-interest income was negative $269 million and included a $918 million loss related to the securities repositioning as well as the $14 million Visa related charge. Adjusting for those items, non-interest income was up 3% year over year. Investment banking and debt placement fees increased over 20% from the prior year and 36% from the prior quarter, reflecting a strong quarter for syndication, debt, and equity underwriting fees.

轉向幻燈片 8。 調整這些項目後，非利息收入年增 3%。 投資銀行和債務配售費用比上年增長 20% 以上，比上一季增長 36%，反映出本季度銀團、債務和股票承銷費用的強勁表現。

So mortgage servicing had a record quarter, reflecting higher active special servicing balances and growth in the overall portfolio. At September 30, we service about $690 billion of assets on behalf of third party clients, including about $230 billion of special servicing, $7.5 billion of which was in active special servicing.

因此，抵押貸款服務季度創歷史新高，反映出主動特殊服務餘額的增加和整體投資組合的成長。 截至 9 月 30 日，我們為第三方客戶提供了約 6,900 億美元的資產服務，其中包括約 2,300 億美元的特殊服務，其中 75 億美元用於主動特殊服務。

Given the lumpiness of some of these speeds and as interest rates come down, we would expect fourth quarter commercial mortgage servicing fees to look more like the second quarter. Trust and investment services fees grew 8% year over year as assets under management grew a record level of $61 billion.

考慮到其中一些速度的波動性以及隨著利率的下降，我們預計第四季度商業抵押貸款服務費將更像第二季。 信託和投資服務費用年增 8%，管理資產成長至創紀錄的 610 億美元。

Slide 9. Second quarter noninterest expenses were $1.09 billion, up 1% quarter over quarter and down 1% year over year. On a year-over-year basis. Higher personnel costs were more than offset by lower fraud losses and marketing expenses at a modest reduction in the estimated FDIC special assessment charge.

投影片 9。 按年計算。 較高的人員成本被較低的詐欺損失和行銷費用（以及預計 FDIC 特別評估費用的適度減少）所抵消。

Sequentially, t he increase was driven by higher incentive compensation from stronger investment banking fees. Moving to Slide 10. Credit quality remains solid. Net charge-offs were $154 million or 58 basis points of average loans and 90 day delinquencies ticked up a few basis points.

隨後，這一增長是由投資銀行費用增加帶來的更高的激勵薪酬所推動的。 轉到投影片 10。 淨沖銷額為 1.54 億美元，相當於平均貸款的 58 個基點，90 天拖欠率上升了幾個基點。

Net charge offs were elevated due to three credits , two consumer goods companies and one equipment manufacturer that were largely reserved. Non-performing loans and assets were essentially stable, up 2.5% and 2%, respectively compared to the prior quarter. NPA as a percentage of loans remain low at 70 basis points.

由於三項信貸、兩家消費品公司和一家設備製造商大部分被保留，淨沖銷額有所上升。不良貸款和資產基本穩定，較上季分別成長2.5%和2%。 NPA 在貸款中所佔的比例仍然較低，為 70 個基點。

[Criticized] loans declined by 2% in third quarter, reflecting lower rates and increased loan modifications with credit enhancements. We believe NPAs are peaking and criticized loans will continue to decline from here assuming no material macro deterioration.

[批評]第三季貸款下降了 2%，反映出利率下降以及信用增強帶來的貸款修改增加。 我們認為，不良貸款正在見頂，如果宏觀經濟沒有實質惡化，受到批評的貸款將繼續下降。

Turning to slide 11. We continued to build our capital position with the CET1 ratio of 35 basis points to 10.8% a s of September 30. Our mark to key CET1 ratio, which includes unrealized FX and pension losses, improved nearly 130 basis points to 8.6%.

轉向幻燈片11。 截至9 月30 日，我們繼續建立資本頭寸，CET1 比率為35 個基點，達到10.8%。個基點，達8.6 %。

Our [AOCI] improved by about $1.9 billion to negative $3.3 billion at quarter end, reflecting lower interest rates. Security repositioned in mid-September. We expect AOCI. to further improve by about one-third by year end 2025 at about 40% by year end 2026, with approximately half of that improvement, reflecting a second contemplated securities portfolio repositioning once the full investment from Scotiabank closes.

我們的 [AOCI] 在季度末增加了約 19 億美元，達到負 33 億美元，反映出利率下降。 九月中旬重新部署安全措施。 我們預計 AOCI。到 2025 年底進一步改善約三分之一，到 2026 年底進一步改善約 40%，其中約一半改善，反映出豐業銀行全額投資結束後第二次預期的證券投資組合重新定位。

Slide 12 provides our outlook for full year 2024 relative to 2023. We currently expect net interest income to fall in the middle of the full year guidance range of down 2% to 5%, albeit with about 150 basis points of positive impact from the Scotiabank investment in the securities portfolio restructuring this past month.

幻燈片12 提供了我們相對於2023 年對2024 年全年的展望。 150 個基點的正面影響上個月的證券投資組合重組投資。

Net interest margin should come in around 2.4% for the fourth quarter. We are tweaking our year end loan forecast by 1% to down 5% to 6%. We are also positively revising our average deposit guidance to up 1% to 2%, including expectations for client deposits to grow by 3% to 4%.

第四季淨利差應在2.4%左右。 我們將年終貸款預測調整 1%，下調 5% 至 6%。 我們也積極將平均存款指引調整為成長 1% 至 2%，其中包括客戶存款成長 3% 至 4% 的預期。

We now expect fees, e xcluding this past quarter, securities portfolio restructuring to grow 6% or better this year, depending on how the capital markets environment plays out in the fourth quarter,. Given the strong fee momentum in our higher stock price, we expect expenses to be up approximately 2% this year. This also includes the funding of our charitable foundation.

我們現在預計，不包括上一季的費用，證券投資組合重組費用今年將成長 6% 或更高，具體取決於第四季資本市場環境的表現。鑑於我們股價上漲帶來的強勁費用動力，我們預計今年費用將上漲約 2%。這也包括我們慈善基金會的資金。

As we've previously communicated, we expect the full year net charge-off ratio to be closer to the high end of the 30 basis point to 40 basis point range, given lower loan balances than we had expected coming into the year.

正如我們之前所傳達的，鑑於今年的貸款餘額低於我們的預期，我們預計全年淨沖銷率將接近 30 個基點至 40 個基點範圍的高端。

For the full year, we expect provision for credit losses, the company around $400 million, which is unchanged from what we'd expected back in January.

對於全年，我們預計該公司的信貸損失撥備約為 4 億美元，與我們 1 月的預期持平。

Moving to Slide 13. The last time we are updating the net interest income opportunity from swaps and short dated treasuries maturing as we sold the remaining roughly $3 billion of treasuries fielding 50 basis points that were to mature in the fourth quarter at the end of September, meaning we now expect the final chunk of benefit from this opportunity to come i n the fourth quarter.

轉到投影片13。月底第四季到期，這意味著我們現在預計該機會的最後一部分收益將在第四季度實現。

The cumulative annualized annualized opportunity ended up being about $830 million, of which 80% has been (technical difficulty) f or the fourth quarter exit rate that we had targeted at the beginning of the year.

累計年化機會最終約為 8.3 億美元，其中 80% 是我們年初設定的第四季退出率（技術難度）。

Regardless of whether the Fed cuts 50 basis points or 75 basis points in the fourth quarter, we believe fourth quarter, NII will be at least 10% higher year over year, which equates to $1 billion and $20 million or better in the fourth quarter. We expect about $40 million of incremental benefit from the September portfolio restructuring and initial traunch investment from Scotiabank.

無論聯準會第四季降息50個基點或75個基點，我們認為第四季NII將年比至少上漲10%，相當於第四季10億美元、2000萬美元或更高。 我們預計 9 月的投資組合重組和豐業銀行的初始投資將帶來約 4,000 萬美元的增量收益。

We expect another $50 million or so benefit from fixed rate asset repricing, including from the accelerated sale of short-term treasuries I just described. We also think we can drive a modest amount of commercial loan growth and some further funding optimization, offset by some short-term impact from the expected Fed rate cuts. While fewer cuts would be better for fourth quarter NII that is largely a timing impact.

我們預計固定利率資產重新定價將帶來約 5,000 萬美元的收益，包括我剛才描述的加速出售短期國債。 我們也認為，我們可以推動適度的商業貸款成長和進一步的融資優化，抵消聯準會降息預期帶來的一些短期影響。 雖然減少第四季度 NII 的削減會更好，但這在很大程度上是時間影響。

Keep in mind that we would expect to capture more benefit of any rate cut over the ensuing 6 to 12 months, and rate cuts would likely provide benefits to other parts of our business, such as higher client transaction activity for demand for credit and improvements to capital. With that, I will now I'll turn the call back to the operator, who will provide instructions for the Q&A portion of our call. Operator?

請記住，我們預計在接下來的6 至12 個月內從任何降息中獲得更多好處，並且降息可能會為我們業務的其他部分帶來好處，例如信貸需求的客戶交易活動增加以及信貸需求的改善首都。 這樣，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，接線員將為我們電話的問答部分提供說明。 操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

（操作說明）Scott Siefers、Piper Sandler。

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the question. I think you might have touched on this a bit towards the end of your remarks, but there's been so much movement in your balance sheet over the last 90 days, not only the new capital in the repositioning button.

謝謝。 大家早安。 感謝您提出問題。 我想您在發言即將結束時可能已經談到了這一點，但在過去 90 天內，您的資產負債表發生了很大的變化，而不僅僅是重新定位按鈕中的新資本。

You know, it looks like the funding profile starting to look a little different with the improved. Maybe thoughts on the updated rate sensitivity of the company as a whole? And as you look at things, what would be sort of best and worst that you would like just in terms of what happens with the rate path.

你知道，隨著改進，資金狀況似乎開始有些不同。 也許對整個公司的更新利率敏感度有什麼想法？ 當你看待事物時，就利率路徑發生的情況而言，你希望什麼是最好的，什麼是最壞的。

Good morning, Scott. Thank you. So look, we've been moving towards rate sensitivity. That's obviously the often viewed over kind of a 12 month periods as all of us in the industry and talked about the early cuts take a little bit of time to work their way through, particularly on the deposit side. As we noted, we took a little bit more deposit action than we had previously planned data as kind of low 30s or so, which we were very happy with.

早安，史考特。 謝謝。 所以看，我們一直在朝著利率敏感性邁進。 顯然，這通常是 12 個月的時間段，因為我們所有業內人士都談到，早期的削減需要一點時間才能完成，特別是在存款方面。 正如我們所指出的，我們採取了比之前計劃的 30 左右低一些的存款行動，我們對此感到非常滿意。

And we think over the course of 2025 will be able to get back to a more standard beta pass over time. I think on the overall rate profile, look, I think the best version of the world is the one we appear to be headed into this offline is coming, which is a steepening curve right now. We got some rally in the term rates, s o nearing again, 4%. We all think the front end is coming down.

我們認為，到 2025 年，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠恢復到更標準的測試版。 我認為就整體利率概況而言，我認為世界上最好的版本是我們即將進入的離線版本，目前這是一條陡峭的曲線。 期限利率有所回升，再次接近 4%。 我們都認為前端正在下降。

So something that's flat to upward sloping, I think is the best profile for all of us. But on the flip side, I think, we took some actions, as you noted, in going out of higher cost wholesale funding. We funded that with deposits at a lower cost, we feel really good about that deposit base and the customer profile. We feel good about our ability to price that over time.

因此，我認為從平坦到向上傾斜的形狀對我們所有人來說都是最好的輪廓。 但另一方面，我認為，正如您所指出的，我們採取了一些行動來擺脫成本較高的批發資金。 我們以較低的成本提供存款，我們對存款基礎和客戶概況感到非常滿意。 隨著時間的推移，我們對自己定價的能力感到滿意。

And given that the swaps positions are coming off, we feel better about our overall rate sensitivity. The other point I'd make is we had a little bit of concern on the repositioning early just given the amount of cash we thought we'd be holding for potentially an extended period of time.

鑑於掉期部位正在減少，我們對整體利率敏感度感覺更好。 我要說的另一點是，考慮到我們認為可能會長期持有的現金數量，我們對早期重新定位有點擔心。

Obviously that cash is pretty asset-sensitive. So those rates come down. That impacts us and we were able to get all of that into the market in the last few weeks when those term rates did rally and we did it at better than expected value.

顯然，現金對資產非常敏感。 所以這些利率就下降了。 這對我們產生了影響，我們能夠在過去幾週內將所有這些資金投入市場，當時這些期限利率確實上漲，而且我們的表現優於預期。

So that's obviously going to help our rate sensitivity position going forward. And we put that those proceeds in Canada for [490, 495] range in a duration that's just under four years. So we felt very good about that repositioning. And that'll again, that will aid us going forward.

因此，這顯然將有助於我們未來的利率敏感度立場。 我們認為加拿大的這些收益 [490, 495] 的持續時間不到四年。 所以我們對這次重新定位感覺非常好。 這將再次幫助我們前進。

Yes, perfect. Thank you for that color. And then sort of sort of related one, I think last month, you all had discussed NII improvement next year in kind of the 20%-plus range. And I think that was before you were fully invested because if I'm recalling the time it correctly, that was when you just announced the repositioning.

是的，完美。 謝謝你的那個顏色。 然後是某種相關的，我想上個月，你們都討論了明年 NII 的改善，幅度在 20% 以上。 我認為那是在你完全投入之前，因為如果我沒記錯時間的話，那就是你剛剛宣布重新定位的時候。

So the actual investment probably a little better than you thought, which presumably should be helpful. But I guess the thrust of the question is just that we still thinking 20%-plus NII improvement next year. And maybe just if you could expand a little on the sort of the main puts and takes to get there in your mind.

所以實際的投資可能比你想像的好一點，這大概應該是有幫助的。 但我想問題的主旨只是我們仍然認為明年 NII 會提高 20% 以上。 也許只要你能稍微擴展一下主要的看跌期權和看跌期權的類型，就能在你的腦海中實現這一目標。

Sure. So I'm going to start with a couple qualifiers because I feel like that's necessary. The first being, you know, a constructive macro environment kind of soft landing as folks expect. So that's point one. Point two is we're in the middle of planning for next year, so we'll give our full guidance here in January. But on the on the 20%, I'd say roughly half of that we think comes from the incremental impact of the repositioning.

當然。所以我將從幾個預選賽開始，因為我覺得這是必要的。 第一個是，你知道，建設性​​的宏觀環境，類似於人們所期望的軟著陸。 這就是第一點。第二點是我們正在計劃明年，所以我們將在一月份在這裡給出全面的指導。 但就 20% 而言，我想說，我們認為其中大約一半來自重新定位的增量影響。

So assuming and this indeed, other qualifier, assuming the second leg of this gets approved and we can do to repositioning early in '25, so we can get the full year impact of that. We think about half of that left comes from the complete repositioning at completion. So that's part of it.

因此，假設這確實是其他預選賽，假設第二回合獲得批准，我們可以在 25 年初重新定位，這樣我們就可以獲得全年的影響。 我們認為剩下的一半來自完成式的完全重新定位。 這就是其中的一部分。

The other components would be continued fixed price -- fixed asset price -- repricing through the course of the year. And that's a combination of some swaps, not the ones we've been talking about, some put some additional swaps still at rates kind of below 2%.

其他組成部分將繼續保持固定價格——固定資產價格——全年重新定價。 這是一些掉期的組合，而不是我們一直在談論的掉期，有些掉期的利率仍然低於 2%。

We've got a consumer book that's running down at rates like 3%, and then we've got some other fixed fixed rate securities that are a little bit higher. That won't won't be as valuable as they would have been previously with rates coming down.

我們有一本消費書籍，其利率正在下降，例如 3%，然後我們還有一些其他固定利率證券，利率稍微高一些。 隨著利率下降，這不會像以前那麼有價值。

But we do do have some continued opportunity there. And then the last piece -- the last two pieces, and I'll finish with the most important one. And we do have at this point and again, subject to change as we get through our planning process, relatively a view on relative stability of loans through 2025. But recall that that is a mixing of consumer coming down and being replaced with commercial.

但我們確實在那裡有一些持續的機會。 然後是最後一件——最後兩件，我將以最重要的一件來結束。 我們目前確實對 2025 年貸款的相對穩定性有一個相對的看法，隨著我們完成規劃過程，可能會發生變化。

So we will need some commercial growth, not Herculean efforts, but something. Our pipelines would tell us that that should be coming. But in fairness, it's been telling us that for a quarter or two. So we'll see how that transpires. And then the most important piece is just continued ability to manage betas. As we've talked a lot about how the commercial focus position.

因此，我們需要一些商業成長，不是艱鉅的努力，而是某種東西。我們的管道會告訴我們這應該會到來。 但公平地說，它已經告訴我們這一點一兩個季度了。 所以我們將看看這是如何發生的。 然後最重要的部分就是持續管理測試版的能力。 正如我們已經談了很多關於商業焦點如何定位。

We've actually improved that throughout the year. We're getting more deposits into indexed. And we think the use of our hybrid accounts and treasury core treasury services that are covered by deposits, there will be a benefit as well.

事實上，我們全年都在改進這一點。 我們正在將更多的存款納入指數化。 我們認為，使用我們的混合帳戶和存款所涵蓋的金庫核心金庫服務也會帶來好處。

And we've taken some action in the consumer book that would give us confidence that we can get data to the right level throughout the course of 2025. So all those components kind of make up the other half of the 20. And at this point, we feel good that that's achievable. But we owe you a more detailed explanation when we come back in January.

我們在消費者手冊中採取了一些行動，這將使我們有信心在 2025 年期間將數據達到正確的水平。 因此，所有這些組成部分構成了 20 的另一半。可以實現的。 但當我們一月回來時，我們欠你一個更詳細的解釋。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Chris, you talk about recent M&A backlogs are up 10% quarter over quarter. And what's the change now, and why? And we've seen that at the big players. And also, we've heard there's a little debate is the capital markets activity taking away from long run or are they are next steps? Are you seeing some disintermediation from blending add to capital markets as it relates to KeyCorp? Thanks.

Chris，您談到最近的併購積壓訂單環比增長了 10%。 現在有什麼變化，為什麼？ 我們已經在大公司身上看到了這一點。 此外，我們聽說存在一些爭論，從長遠來看，資本市場活動是否會影響長期發展，或者它們是下一步措施？ 您是否看到與 KeyCorp 相關的混合資產與資本市場的脫媒現象？謝謝。

Sure. Thanks for your question. I think the fundamental differences, the private equity on universe is really starting to transact. I think they have a perspective. Obviously, there's an inverse relationship between the whole period and the returns.

當然。 謝謝你的提問。 我認為根本的差異是，宇宙上的私募股權確實開始交易了。 我認為他們有一個觀點。 顯然，整個週期和報酬之間存在著反比關係。

And in addition to that, the 10 year, which is really what matters sort of settling in somewhere around 4%, that is that that's in an environment where I think the private equity world is very comfortable transacting. And as a consequence, I think you're really starting to see a pickup on the M&A side.

除此之外，10 年期的利率穩定在 4% 左右才是真正重要的，也就是說，我認為私募股權界的交易環境非常舒適。 因此，我認為您確實開始看到併購方面的回升。

And I think that will continue by the way. With respect to the disintermediation on, there's no question that it isn't being, you know, Mike, we raised $28 billion last quarter and we have a pretty good eye on this because we're distributing a lot of paper in a lot of places.

我認為這種情況將會持續下去。 關於去中介化，毫無疑問，麥克，你知道，我們上個季度籌集了 280 億美元，我們對此有很好的關注，因為我們在很多領域分發了大量的紙張。

And there's no question in my mind that some the capital markets activity does in fact, disintermediate the banks. And I think the private capital on private credit markets do as well. And of course, we distribute paper to all those places.

在我看來，毫無疑問，一些資本市場活動實際上確實使銀行脫中介化。 我認為私人信貸市場上的私人資本也是如此。 當然，我們也會向所有這些地方分發紙張。

And the only thing I'm I might add to that, Mike, just a couple of specific examples, and we touch on why we put directly into our warehouse. They're on their way to the markets and then another $300 million we refinance off the balance sheet into the market. So that's always been our model and will continue to do what makes no sense for clients. And I think you saw that this quarter in our strong investment banking fees.

麥克，我唯一可以補充的是，只有幾個具體的例子，我們會談到為什麼我們直接放入倉庫。 他們正在前往市場的路上，然後我們從資產負債表上再融資 3 億美元進入市場。 所以這一直是我們的模式，並將繼續做對客戶來說毫無意義的事情。 我想您已經在本季度我們強勁的投資銀行費用中看到了這一點。

And just to follow up on the private equity comment, you said the private equity universe is starting to transact on, I got the sense there, deployments in the dry powder, but honestly monetizing the investments, but you get different stories depending on who you ask, how much of your business is driven by private equity and how do you see private equity factor playing out? I think you've never had this much dry powder in a cycle like this. Thanks.

為了跟進私募股權評論，您說私募股權領域正在開始交易，我有這樣的感覺，在乾粉中進行部署，但誠實地將投資貨幣化，但根據您的身份，您會得到不同的故事問，您的業務有多少是由私募股權驅動的，您如何看待私募股權因素的表現？ 我想你從來沒有在這樣的循環中使用過這麼多的乾粉。 謝謝。

Sure. So I think broadly private equity universe represents about a third of all the fees that are paid in the investment banking arena. Our mix wouldn't be much different and your observation is good and that is a private equity firms that are putting product out into the market. That's a process that takes 12 months or so as opposed to buying businesses that are available, which is relatively on, t here's a sort of timeline on that. Thanks for your questions, Mike.

當然。 因此，我認為廣義的私募股權領域約佔投資銀行領域支付的所有費用的三分之一。 我們的組合不會有太大不同，您的觀察很好，這是一家私募股權公司正在將產品推向市場。 這個過程需要 12 個月左右的時間，而不是購買現有的企業，這是相對合理的，這裡有一個時間表。 謝謝你的提問，麥克。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Chris, you mentioned in your opening remarks about the special servicing. I was curious or perked my interest. You mentioned how there seems to be an accelerated resolution to the inflows and it may have come in six months ago or three months ago.

克里斯，您在開場白中提到了特殊服務。 我很好奇或激發了我的興趣。 您提到資金流入似乎正在加速解決，這可能是在六個月前或三個月前發生的。

Can you give us any color on how that resolution is going? Is a big price discounts and then being refinanced or what are you guys seeing on the resolution sign to move these properties out?

您能給我們透露一下該決議的進展嗎？ 是大幅度的價格折扣，然後進行再融資，還是你們在決議標誌上看到了什麼，以將這些房產遷出？

So it's a combination of things, Gerard. If you go to the office market, frankly, there's just some capitulation because there has to be and things are starting to trade, albeit at a significant discount, not a lot of new capital coming in, frankly, to the office market.

所以這是多種因素的結合，傑拉德。 坦白說，如果你去辦公市場，就會有一些投降，因為必須有，而且事情已經開始交易，儘管折扣很大，但坦白說，沒有大量新資本進入辦公室市場。

I can speak to that in greater depth in a moment. On the other hand, with respect to multifamily, and we've said before, most of the multi-family projects that are in special servicing are concentrated in the Southeast. Most of them, frankly, are not financed by banks.

我稍後可以更深入地討論這一點。 另一方面，就多戶住宅而言，我們之前已經說過，大多數提供特殊服務的多戶住宅項目都集中在東南部。 坦白說，其中大多數都沒有銀行融資。

Most of them were done relatively recently with some very aggressive assumptions, i.e., trending rates, having, you know, sub-debt and then et cetera, in those instances, we are able to attract new capital on a restructuring basis. So it's a little bit different for office vis-a-vis multifamily.

其中大多數都是最近才完成的，並做出了一些非常激進的假設，即趨勢利率、次級債務等等，在這些情況下，我們能夠在重組的基礎上吸引新資本。 因此，辦公室與多戶住宅略有不同。

Very good. Then you guys talked about the outlook for loans or what you're experiencing in loans. And we're seeing from the H8 data that comes out on Friday i s that it seems like commercial and industrial loans have hit a bottom and starting to creep up a bit. Any sense that you might be seeing that as soon as well or just some of you because you're where you physically located in new customers is still going to be flat for or flat to down, I should say, over the near term?

非常好。 然後你們談論了貸款的前景或你們在貸款中遇到的情況。 我們從週五公佈的 H8 數據中看到，商業和工業貸款似乎已經觸底並開始小幅上升。 我應該說，在短期內，您可能會很快看到這一點，或者只是您中的一些人因為您所在的位置而在新客戶中仍然會持平或持平甚至下降？

So there's a few things going on. And first of all, we are without question growing clients. So there's no doubt that we're out there bringing on new clients. We have been obviously a bit frustrated by the lack of take-up of our existing clients in terms of borrowing money.

所以有一些事情正在發生。 首先，毫無疑問，我們是不斷成長的客戶。 因此，毫無疑問，我們正在吸引新客戶。 顯然，我們對現有客戶在藉貸方面缺乏接受度感到有點沮喪。

And I think what's going on Gerard is a few things. On the positive side. I mentioned that there is transactional finance happening. So that's a positive. On the negative side. You just have supply significantly exceeding demand.

我認為傑拉德發生了一些事情。從正面的一面來看。 我提到正在發生交易金融。 所以這是積極的。 消極的一面。 你的供應量大大超過了需求量。

On the demand side here's s ome of the things that we need to see before we get significant growth from our existing customers. one, there hasn't been a lot of investment in CapEx, and that has typically a lead time of about 18 months based on all the uncertainties.

在需求方面，在我們從現有客戶那裡獲得顯著成長之前，我們需要看到一些事情。 第一，資本支出的投資並不多，而且基於所有的不確定性，投資週期通常約為 18 個月。

The next thing is utilization. And this one's a complex one. Everyone basically went long on inventory during the pandemic because there was a lot of inflation and there were supply chain issues. Now people are getting back to really managing their working capital. And I assume obviously, rising rates has something to do with that as well.

接下來是利用率。 這是一個複雜的問題。 在疫情期間，每個人基本上都在做多庫存，因為通貨膨脹很高，並且有供應鏈問題。現在人們開始真正管理他們的營運資金。 我認為顯然，利率上升也與此有關。

So I think there's just been a fundamental adjustment there. So we do see it coming back. We see it coming back first on the transaction side, we'll see it next, I think on our clients engaging in CapEx. And I think the last piece that will happen is to really get a kick in utilization because for all the reasons I just described, these companies are throwing off a fair amount of cash as they get sort of top line decline and all the other things in the mix. Does that answer your question, Gerard?

所以我認為這只是一個根本性的調整。 所以我們確實看到它回來了。 我們看到它首先在交易方面回歸，我們接下來會看到它，我認為我們的客戶參與資本支出。 我認為最後會發生的事情是真正提高利用率，因為出於我剛才描述的所有原因，這些公司正在扔掉相當多的現金，因為他們的收入有所下降，而所有其他事情都在發生。 。 這能回答你的問題嗎，傑拉德？

No, it does. It's good, Chris. And just one real quick. You guys in the past, we've always had commented on student lending. Any changes here and move rates coming down a bit of a new student lending platform?

不，確實如此。 很好，克里斯。 而且只是一個非常快的。 你們過去一直對學生貸款發表評論。 新的學生貸款平台是否有任何變化並降低了利率？

Yes. So that is that is an upside for us as rates continue to come down. We basically had a negligible amount of originations in the last quarter and our student loan business, we are seeing a decline of 100 basis points to 150 basis points will get that business back to back to ramping up to state the obvious every quarter, every semester.

是的。 因此，隨著利率持續下降，這對我們來說是一個好處。 我們上個季度的貸款發放量基本上可以忽略不計，我們的學生貸款業務下降了 100 個基點到 150 個基點，這將使該業務背靠背地每季度、每學期都在增長。

There's a bunch of new customers at different levels, but clearly, with the hiking cycle is going to take a while to work through that and we're still peeling off the moratorium. So people are just getting used to paying their student loans again or maybe not get used to paying their student loans again. So there's probably a little bit of transition and just seeing that sticker shock a little bit and then going out and figuring out if there's a better alternative.

有許多不同層級的新客戶，但顯然，隨著健行週期需要一段時間才能解決這個問題，而且我們仍在取消暫停。因此，人們只是習慣再次支付學生貸款，或者可能不習慣再次支付學生貸款。 因此，可能需要一些過渡，只是看到一點貼紙衝擊，然後出去尋找是否有更好的替代方案。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰·潘卡里，Evercore。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

This is Nathan Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor, obviously you talked about the rise in C&I net charge-offs this quarter, which were from the fee credits that had been previously reserved for. I wanted to ask what industries with these loans in and we saw the updated charge-off guidance for full year 24. But are you expecting other similarly sized client losses in the coming quarters?

我是內森·斯坦 (Nathan Stein) 代表馬特·奧康納 (Matt O'Connor)，顯然您談到了本季度 C&I 淨沖銷的增加，這些沖銷來自之前預留的費用抵免。 我想問一下哪些行業有這些貸款，我們看到了 24 年全年更新的沖銷指引。

So Nathan, this is Chris. So the specifically the three credits, two of them were in consumer products. one of them was in equipment manufacturing, having nothing to do with consumer products. So those were the three credits each had their own idiosyncratic issues that I don't think you can get a huge read through on brought industries on those.

內森，這是克里斯。 因此，具體來說，這三個功勞，其中兩個是消費品領域的。 其中之一是裝備製造，與消費性產品無關。 因此，這三個學分都有各自獨特的問題，我認為您無法對這些問題進行大量閱讀。

Okay, thank you. And then if I could just ask a question on the NIM flagged at 2.4. The number of leases. I think in September you guys flagged this 3% named with just assuming a steeper yield curve down the road, not necessarily next year. But could you provide your updated thoughts on the long term NIM, just given the move in rates over the past few weeks and everything else going on in Key? Thanks.

好的，謝謝。 然後我能否就標記為 2.4 的 NIM 提出一個問題。 租賃數量。 我想你們在 9 月就標記了這個 3%，只是假設未來殖利率曲線會更陡，不一定是明年。 但是，考慮到過去幾週的利率變動以及基里島發生的所有其他事情，您能否提供您對長期淨利差的最新想法？ 謝謝。

Nathan. I think from a broad perspective, what we've said is and there's obviously a bunch of puts and takes in, as we said, that based on our business model, there's no reason by the end of 2025, we can't be in a range of 2.8% to 3%. And obviously, we're looking at different models every single day. But we still feel very comfortable with that.

內森。 我認為從廣泛的角度來看，我們所說的是，正如我們所說，顯然有很多投入和吸收，根據我們的商業模式，到 2025 年底，我們沒有理由不能進入範圍為 2.8% 至 3%。 顯然，我們每天都在研究不同的模型。 但我們仍然對此感到非常滿意。

Zach Westerlind, UBS.

札克韋斯特林德，瑞銀集團。

Hi, good morning. This is Zack on for Erika. My question is just around deposit betas on we saw decent uptick in the cost of interest-bearing deposits this quarter. Or just kind of wanted to get your thoughts on how you're thinking about the trajectory for that deposit beta going going forward.

嗨，早安。 這是艾莉卡的紮克。 我的問題只是關於存款貝塔值，我們看到本季生息存款成本大幅上升。 或者只是想了解您對存款測試版未來發展軌蹟的看法。

Yeah, sure. So maybe just get to the quarter movement first and then transition to beta. So up 11 basis points. Interest-bearing deposit costs in the quarter. seven of that was intentional move into higher cost deposits, but deposits that were lower cost wholesale funding. So we paid off about $4.5 billion of FHLB advances at a higher rate.

是的，當然。 因此，也許先進行季度變動，然後再過渡到測試版。 因此上漲 11 個基點。 本季的計息存款成本。 其中七項是有意轉入成本較高的存款，但存款是成本較低的批發融資。 因此，我們以更高的利率償還了約 45 億美元的 FHLB 預付款。

And I think the more important number versus the 11 basis points on deposit costs is overall funding costs only up a basis points. So at the end of the day, what we're managing is the overall funding costs and obviously deposits are critical p art of that.

我認為，與存款成本 11 個基點相比，更重要的數字是整體融資成本僅上升了一個基點。 因此，歸根究底，我們要管理的是整體融資成本，顯然存款是其中的關鍵部分。

As it relates to beta, as we had expected something maybe low to mid-20s on the first cuts. We are expecting to be closer to low to mid-30s potentially. Some of that is we just leaned into different our portfolios a little bit more aggressively than we thought we could because we felt comfortable that we understood the dynamics of those.

由於它與 Beta 相關，正如我們預期的那樣，第一次削減時可能會低至 20 多歲。我們預計可能會接近 30 多歲。其中一些原因是，我們只是比我們想像的更積極地傾向於不同的投資組合，因為我們對了解這些投資組合的動態感到放心。

The other pieces, the 50 basis point cut in September gave us a little bit more room to take action. If that had been 25, I think you would have seen a lower gain on that first cut. So as we say, pretty frequently, I think it will be not only an absolute level of rates, but how much they're moving on any one cut tends to impact how much beta you can see as a reaction to that.

其他方面，9 月降息 50 個基點給了我們更多採取行動的空間。 如果是 25，我想您在第一次切割時會看到較低的增益。 因此，正如我們經常所說的那樣，我認為這不僅是利率的絕對水平，而且任何一次降息的幅度都會影響你可以看到的貝塔值的大小作為對此的反應。

So a 50 basis points on a net basis creates a little bit more drag in 2024, but it also gave us the ability to take a little bit more aggressive action on deposit pricing.

因此，淨利率上升 50 個基點會在 2024 年造成更多阻力，但也使我們有能力對存款定價採取更積極的行動。

Helpful. Thank you. And just as a follow-up to that, on the non-interest bearing deposit front, any color that you can share on that in terms of when you think that will reach a bottom there or pivot to pivot to growth? Any thoughts there would be helpful. Thanks.

有幫助。 謝謝。 作為後續行動，在無利息存款方面，您可以分享您認為何時會觸底或轉向增長的任何顏色嗎？ 任何想法都會有幫助。 謝謝。

Yeah. So maybe just a reminder there to support our reported number shows down a tick around 19%. Recall that we used pretty actively a hybrid account for our commercial clients that has a fair bit of non-interest bearing deposits in it. If you adjust for those those which we think is appropriate, you get pretty flat at 24% quarter to quarter.

是的。 因此，也許只是提醒一下我們報告的數字顯示下降了 19% 左右。 回想一下，我們非常積極地為商業客戶使用混合帳戶，其中有相當多的無利息存款。 如果你對我們認為合適的那些進行調整，你會發現季度與季度的成長率相當穩定，為 24%。

So I think in aggregate, it's starting to stabilize. We would expect with rate cuts that, you know, it's going to be stable. And if the rate cuts continue, we would expect it to potentially start to tick up. And some of that is frankly the way those hybrid accounts work. So overtime, we were thinking this is at or near the bottom of that percentage.

所以我認為總的來說，它開始穩定下來。 我們預計，隨著降息，利率將保持穩定。 如果降息持續下去，我們預期利率可能會開始上升。 坦白說，其中一些就是這些混合帳戶的工作方式。 因此，隨著時間的推移，我們認為這已處於或接近該百分比的底部。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey, I apologize if this has already been covered that. But now can you talk about expenses for 2025, just given that you have a lot more capital to work with now? I mean, a growth should be accelerating next year. Y ou have some investment spending may place you have been pretty good with managing expenses that over the past few years. J ust given all of that, how should we think about expenses in 2025?

嘿，如果這已經被報道過的話，我很抱歉。 但現在您能談談 2025 年的支出嗎，因為您現在有更多的資金可以使用？ 我的意思是，明年的成長應該會加速。你有一些投資支出，這可能會讓你在過去幾年非常擅長管理支出。考慮到所有這些，我們應該如何考慮 2025 年的支出？

Sure. Fair question. We're obviously going through the planning cycle now, but I mentioned before, and this won't change. We will be targeting kind of low to mid single digits for 2025. Our discipline around expenses won't change in spite of the fact that we're going to obviously have a significant amount of capital you do see in the fourth quarter, and we gave guidance on this that we're investing a little bit in the fourth quarter.

當然。 公平的問題。 顯然，我們現在正在經歷規劃週期，但我之前提到過，這一點不會改變。 我們的目標是到 2025 年實現中低個位數。季度進行一些投資。

And that's really just some unique opportunities that we have to kind of advanced business in light of the tailwinds that we're picking up from both on the rundown of our swaps and treasuries and also the repositioning of the balance sheet that Clark walked everyone through.

這實際上只是一些獨特的機會，鑑於我們從掉期和國債的清單以及克拉克向大家介紹的資產負債表的重新定位中獲得的順風，我們必須推動業務發展。

So that maybe one additional point just I think is embedded in Chris's comment, but I just want to make it explicitly Manan, which is we would tell you that to annualize that Q4 number going into '25. I don't think that's appropriate, as Chris mentioned, we're leaning into higher fee growth. So we're going to see incentive comp go up a bit, s tock prices a little bit higher. We've got some unique investment opportunities we're assessing in the fourth quarter that were interested in taking to get at a head start on '25.

因此，我認為克里斯的評論中可能包含了另外一點，但我只想明確地指出馬南，即我們會告訴您將進入 25 年的第四季度數字按年計算。 我認為這不合適，正如克里斯所提到的，我們傾向於更高的費用成長。 因此，我們將看到激勵補償略有上升，股票價格略有上漲。 我們正在第四季度評估一些獨特的投資機會，有興趣抓住這些機會在 25 年取得領先地位。

But I think the underlying point that Chris made is worth repeating, which is we don't see the benefit of higher earnings or the investment as a path to losing our expense discipline here.

但我認為克里斯提出的基本觀點值得重複，那就是我們不認​​為更高收益或投資的好處是失去我們的支出紀律的途徑。

Perfect. And then and I appreciate the comments on the near term deposit betas, but wanted to get your thoughts on just the longer-term as you think through the cycle, should deposit betas in the way down match deposit betas and the way up. And given that loan growth will be stronger this time than it otherwise when deposits, when now when rates are going up and well, deposit betas likely be a little bit slower through the cycle?

完美的。 然後，我很欣賞對近期存款貝塔值的評論，但想了解一下您對整個週期的長期看法，存款貝塔值的下降是否應該與存款貝塔和上升的情況相匹配。考慮到這次貸款成長將比存款時強勁，當利率上升且良好時，存款貝塔值在整個週期中可能會稍微慢一些？

Great, it's a great question with no simple answer because you had a bunch of the moving parts. So subject to our funding needs on the balance sheet that obviously drives the requirement to have deposit balances, which in effect then hit your pricing. What I would say maybe more broadly is I think the absolute level of rates matter and the amount of movement in rates matter.

太好了，這是一個很好的問題，沒有簡單的答案，因為你有很多活動部件。 因此，根據我們資產負債表上的資金需求，這顯然會推動存款餘額的要求，這實際上會影響您的定價。 更廣泛地說，我認為利率的絕對水準很重要，利率的變動幅度也很重要。

So we have hit kind of peaked at mid-50s, 56%, I think beta on the way up. I think that's worth more than probably you would have expected at the beginning of the cycle, but it's also a function of rates moving up over 500 basis points off of zero. So your relative starting zero, you're moving up by 500, 550 basis points. That's a huge move. Then you're getting obviously to that 5% level.

所以我們已經達到了 50 年代中期的峰值，56%，我認為貝塔值正在上升。 我認為這比您在週期開始時預期的價值要高，但這也是利率從零上升超過 500 個基點的函數。 因此，相對從零開始，您將上漲 500、550 個基點。 這是一個巨大的舉動。 那麼你顯然會達到 5% 的水平。

I think on the way down, I would expect it to be somewhat parallel, but probably not getting to the mid-50s, maybe it's a 50 number because you're not likely to get back to zero unless some terminal rate path, t hat's 2.3%. I think you're going to see beta deployed and data deployed and overtime fairly aggressively, but I don't think you get to the same levels just because the magnitude of the change is 50% to 60% of the way up. And that then you have to account for the other element, which is loans and required balances for funding.

我認為在下降的過程中，我預計它會有點平行，但可能不會達到 50 年代中期，也許它是一個 50 的數字，因為你不太可能回到零，除非有一些終端速率路徑，那就是2.3%。 我認為您將看到測試版部署、資料部署和加班相當積極，但我認為您不會因為變化的幅度增加 50% 到 60% 就達到相同的水平。 然後你必須考慮另一個因素，即貸款和所需的資金餘額。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Mike Mayo，富國銀行。

Hey, can you comment on the increase in NPLs a little bit more, you know, is that like how many credits is that a trend that's something that you guys are worried about, was that unexpected? Thanks.

嘿，你能對不良貸款的增加多評論一下嗎？ 謝謝。

Yes, Mike, it's Chris. We think that's sort of peaking. It's there's nothing in particular, it's kind of broad based. And as we said in our opening comments, we don't think it's material or reflect. I don't think there's any read-through from that.

是的，麥克，是克里斯。 我們認為這已經達到頂峰了。 沒有什麼特別的，它的基礎很廣泛。 正如我們在開場評論中所說，我們認為這並不重要或反映。 我不認為有任何通讀的內容。

So next quarter, we shouldn't expect anything like that is what you're saying.

因此，下個季度，我們不應期望出現您所說的那樣的情況。

Well, I think I think NPLs will be pretty will be pretty flat as we go as we go forward. I mean that would be what I would assume for your models.

嗯，我認為隨著我們的前進，不良貸款將會相當平穩。 我的意思是，這就是我對你的模型的假設。

If you're talking NCLs, Mike, the three credits then. W e don't expect that to recur. The benefit t o the extent there is some there is that those were almost entirely reserved and that was a big portion of the release as well.

如果你說的是 NCL，麥克，那就是三個學分。我們預計這種情況不會再發生。某種程度上的好處是，這些幾乎完全被保留，而且這也是發布的很大一部分。

And then one last cleanup question. So you had already bought the NII 20% higher next year and then you sold $7 billion of the securities near highs size, whom you got a nice yield pickup and better better lucky than smart or maybe use a maybe you have some great timing there. But so why wouldn't that 20% number for the increase in NII in 2025 versus 2024 go higher because of that fortuitous investing of those securities?

然後是最後一個清理問題。 因此，你已經在明年以高出20% 的價格買入了NII，然後你在接近高點的水平上出售了70 億美元的證券，你得到了不錯的收益率，而且比聰明的運氣更好，或者也許你有一些很好的時機。 但是，為什麼 2025 年 NII 成長 20% 的數字不會因為這些證券的偶然投資而比 2024 年更高呢？

Yeah. So I'll take lucky or good either, but that just to remind you might the 20% that we shared contemplated the repositioning. So what we're talking about is marginal improvement on the reinvestment. We're really happy with where we did it. And we took advantage of that up in rates. But that's relative to you know, maybe it's a handful of basis points that are not that 20% wasn't it had already contemplated the repositioning of that portfolio.

是的。 所以我會選擇幸運或好，但這只是為了提醒你，我們分享的 20% 的人可能會考慮重新定位。 所以我們談的是再投資的邊際改善。 我們對我們所做的事情感到非常滿意。 我們利用了這一點提高了利率。 但這相對於你知道的，也許這只是少數幾個基點，不是 20%，它不是已經考慮過重新定位該投資組合了。

So again, I think it still in fact contemplates the second production piece.

再說一次，我認為它實際上仍在考慮第二個作品。

Yeah, correct. So it is a marginal benefit which will take, but it isn't the entire magnitude of that trade that that is added on top of that 20%.

是的，正確。 因此，這是一個邊際收益，但並不是 20% 的基礎上添加的整個貿易規模。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)，Evercore ISI。

Sorry about the principle plums earlier on data was not a problem. A couple real quick questions on on the capital markets revenues side, I know you flagged some very solid pipelines and building pipelines there and your expectation in the high end of the 600 to 650.

抱歉，原則李子之前的數據不是問題。 關於資本市場收入的幾個真正的快速問題，我知道您標記了一些非常可靠的管道並在那裡建造管道，以及您對 600 至 650 高端的期望。

Chris. I know when you had this type of confidence in the past, as you actually you called out the likelihood of a of a record year the following year as well. I believe you did that last year. Could you maybe provide your thoughts on 2025 years, just given the progression, your CMDB, how we see that playing out in terms of your capital markets ramps as you look at heading into '25?

克里斯. 我知道你過去有這種信心，因為你實際上也指出了下一年創紀錄的可能性。 我相信你去年就這麼做了。 您能否提供您對 2025 年的想法，考慮到進展情況，您的 CMDB，當您考慮進入「25」時，我們如何看待您的資本市場的成長？

Yeah, fair question of suite. Clearly sort of embedded in our guidance for 2024. You kind of do the math is a nice step up in the fourth quarter, maybe $180 million or so i f you can just back into it, I feel good about the trajectory. I think if we continue to have this kind of an environment where rates are stabilizing and people are able to transact, I'm optimistic about 2025, we'll give more guidance on that, John when we gather after the end of the year. But I think you should assume that a lot of these pipelines have pretty long tails. And so we should run we should go into 2025 live with a fair amount of momentum.

是的，套房的問題很合理。 顯然，這已經融入我們對 2024 年的指導中了。 我認為，如果我們繼續保持這種利率穩定且人們能夠進行交易的環境，我對 2025 年持樂觀態度，約翰，當我們在年底後聚會時，我們將就此提供更多指導。 但我認為你應該假設很多管道都有很長的尾巴。 因此，我們應該以相當大的勢頭進入 2025 年。

That's helpful. Thanks, Chris. And just two more quick ones on the loan growth front. I believe you mentioned relative stability as you look into 2025, given the trends you're seeing given consumer likely declining, but commercial increases, are you able to give us a better idea of the two future growth that you think is reasonable and what type of growth more specifically on the commercial side? Do you think that Cobalt's SEC consumer pressure?

這很有幫助。謝謝，克里斯。 在貸款成長方面，還有兩個快速成長的因素。 我相信您在展望2025 年時提到了相對穩定性，考慮到您所看到的趨勢，考慮到消費者可能會下降，但商業增長，您能否讓我們更好地了解您認為合理的兩種未來成長以及哪種類型更具體地說是在商業方面的成長？您認為Cobalt的SEC消費者壓力大嗎？

So we'll provide a little bit more color there. But just maybe broadly think about consumer loans coming down $2 billion to $3 billion in a year despite natural kind of maturity and pay down now that could change based on rate levels and mortgage markets. But that's kind of a decent rule of thumb there.

所以我們將在那裡提供更多的顏色。 但也許可以廣泛地考慮消費貸款在一年內會減少 20 億至 30 億美元，儘管自然的到期日和還款額可能會根據利率水平和抵押貸款市場而變化。 但這是一個不錯的經驗法則。

As it relates to where we would see some pickup in commercial, I'll make a couple of comments and then Chris can add on to it. But in places where we have demonstrated strength and I think mostly I would like affordable and renewables, which are tend to be project transactions, they tend to be construction in nature. So they bill and through time and then we perm them out in some form.

由於這與我們在廣告中看到的一些回升有關，我將發表一些評論，然後克里斯可以補充。 但在我們展示實力的地方，我認為我最喜歡負擔得起的可再生能源，這些能源往往是專案交易，它們本質上往往是建築。 因此，他們會隨著時間的推移計費，然後我們以某種形式批准它們。

Those I think are places where we're starting well in portable, we've been pretty consistent, but we're seeing pickup there. I think the opportunity to build that over time and those loans do take time to materialize just because they are large projects, they do build from a draw standpoint before they're ready to be fully fully drawn and sold. So those are two places where I just continue to feel confident about our abilities and the market, but there's some broader based opportunities that data as well.

我認為這些是我們在便攜式領域起步良好的地方，我們一直非常穩定，但我們正在看到那裡的回升。 我認為隨著時間的推移，建立這個項目的機會和這些貸款確實需要時間才能實現，因為它們是大型項目，它們確實是從提款的角度開始構建的，然後準備好完全提款和出售。 因此，在這兩個領域，我繼續對我們的能力和市場充滿信心，但也存在一些更廣泛的機會。

Yes. The only thing I'd add Clark, as I mentioned earlier, I think the transactions business will generate loans because that's picking up sort of a wildcard that that all of us are watching what's going to happen with our existing client base in terms of reach, only investing in CapEx and what's going to happen with utilization. And I think that's just a watch point for all of us.

是的。 我唯一要補充的是克拉克，正如我之前提到的，我認為交易業務將產生貸款，因為這就像一個通配符，我們所有人都在關注我們現有客戶群在覆蓋範圍方面會發生什麼，僅投資資本支出以及利用率會發生什麼。 我認為這只是我們所有人的一個觀察點。

Thanks, Chris. And I do have one last one sorry about that. On the loan loss reserve, you did loans to reserve ratio basis. You did bleed reserve modestly this quarter. We broker or perhaps provide us a little bit of thoughts around the potential for incremental releases here as you see credit playing out, given the economic outlook.

謝謝，克里斯。 我對此確實有最後一點抱歉。 在貸款損失準備金方面，您以貸款準備率為基礎。 本季你確實適度地流失了儲備金。 考慮到經濟前景，當你看到信貸發揮作用時，我們會經紀或可能為我們提供一些有關增量釋放潛力的想法。

You know, look so we view your right, 3 basis points, I think down on the ACL, so pretty stable. We built it up quite significantly over the last several quarters. I think if you did a loan, I'm kind of portfolio by portfolio that we could even be lower. But right now, we're still looking at we're being cautious around migration and where some of the late cycle pieces of this are taking us.

你知道，看我們對你的看法，3個基點，我認為在ACL上，所以相當穩定。 在過去的幾個季度中，我們對其進行了相當大的建設。 我認為，如果你貸款的話，我的投資組合可能會更低。 但現在，我們仍在關注對遷移的謹慎態度，以及其中一些後期週期的部分將帶我們走向何方。

I think if rates continue to come down and as Chris noted, the environment remains constructive that that may give us some opportunity. But right now, we feel like stability is probably the right place.

我認為，如果利率繼續下降，正如克里斯指出的那樣，環境仍然具有建設性，這可能會給我們一些機會。 但現在，我們覺得穩定可能是正確的選擇。

John, there's really three things that drive these. What is your view of the macro and on you obviously have a perspective on that next to sort of idiosyncratic. And obviously, if we we were aware of idiosyncratic things, we would be as we aggressively took on the three loans that we talked about today, we'd be moving on those in the third element is the size of the book. So those are kind of the three elements. And so if you think about each of those three, obviously on things that Quest, you know, where should that reserve will continue to evaluate it.

約翰，實際上有三件事推動了這些。 你對宏觀的看法是什麼，你對這個問題的看法顯然有些獨特。顯然，如果我們意識到特殊的事情，我們就會像我們積極地接受今天討論的三筆貸款一樣，我們會繼續處理第三個要素，即書籍的大小。 這就是三個要素。 因此，如果你考慮這三者中的每一個，顯然是在 Quest 的事情上，你知道，儲備金應該在哪裡繼續評估它。

Peter Winter, D.A. Davidson.

彼得溫特，D.A.戴維森。

Good morning. I wanted to follow-up on John's questions on the loans. Just for the fourth quarter. You didn't change the full year guidance for the average, um, which would imply that there's going to be some decent growth in the fourth quarter. Was just wondering if you could talk about maybe just like you're expecting for fourth quarter loan trends.

早安. 我想跟進約翰關於貸款的問題。 只看第四季。 您沒有改變全年平均指引，嗯，這意味著第四季將會出現一些不錯的成長。 只是想知道您是否可以談談您對第四季度貸款趨勢的預期。

Yeah. So I mean, we took the ending point down a bit. I think that will take us to the overall at a lower end of the average guide. Look, I think we're expecting some stability on the loan side at this point, not a huge amount of growth. I'd say some modest growth, but whether or not we get that, I don't think really impacts our view on NII in the quarter. We'd obviously like to start seeing some loan growth. So at this point, I'd say it's more stabilizing that it is really picking up.

是的。 所以我的意思是，我們把終點降低了一點。 我認為這將使我們整體處於平均指南的較低端。 看，我認為我們目前預計貸款方面會保持一定程度的穩定性，而不是大幅成長。 我想說的是適度的成長，但無論我們是否實現這一成長，我認為都不會真正影響我們對本季 NII 的看法。 我們顯然希望開始看到一些貸款成長。 所以在這一點上，我想說它比真正的回升更穩定。

Okay. And then Chris, if I could just ask a big-picture question. Obviously, you're getting that second tranche of the investment from Scotia, the focus would be the securities restructuring on along with organic growth. But just with now that you've built up your capital levels, just to ask, how do you think about bank M&A going forward?

好的。 然後克里斯，我能否問一個大局問題。 顯然，您將從豐業銀行獲得第二筆投資，重點是證券重組和有機成長。 但現在您已經建立了資本水平，請問您如何看待銀行併購的未來？

Sure. So the premise of your questions, so think about us raising $2.8 billion. And we basically in the aggregate spend $1.4 billion on the restructuring than we have an additional $1.5 billion. And on a pro forma basis, I think you'll see our CET1.

當然。 所以你的問題的前提是，想想我們籌集 28 億美元的資金。 基本上，我們在重組上總共花了 14 億美元，而不是額外的 15 億美元。 在準備考試的基礎上，我想你會看到我們的 CET1。

It's a 12% and you will see our marked CET1 and say 10%. So clearly will have on will have dry powder that we'll be able to if there's dislocation in the market will be able to take advantage of that will probably run with a little higher capital on just in the near term until there's finalization of Basel III in game, the liquidity rules, the long term debt.

這是 12%，您會看到我們標記的 CET1 並說 10%。 因此，顯然我們將擁有乾粉，如果市場出現混亂，我們將能夠利用這一點，在巴塞爾協議 III 最終確定之前，短期內可能會以更高的資本運行在遊戲中，流動性規則，長期債務。

But I do believe, Peter, that there there will be consolidation in our industry. There certainly hasn't been for all the reasons that you are well aware of. I think last year there were three significant deals completed. My experience with consolidation is when it happens, it happens kind of in waves. And clearly, with this additional capital, I think we'd be we'd be well positioned if and when that were to happen. It's not something we're focused on now, h owever.

但彼得，我確實相信我們的產業將會出現整合。 當然，並非出於您所熟知的所有原因。 我認為去年完成了三筆重大交易。 我對整合的經驗是，當整合發生時，它會以波浪式的方式發生。 顯然，有了這筆額外的資本，我認為如果這種情況發生，我們就會處於有利地位。 不過，這不是我們現在關注的重點。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Clark if possible, I wanted to just revisit the expense outlook, particularly in the fourth quarter seems to be generating a lot of topics this morning. I know you said higher stock price will impact incentive comp. And then I think you said some some kind of proactive investments as well.

克拉克，如果可能的話，我想重新審視支出前景，特別是第四季度，今天早上似乎產生了很多話題。 我知道你說過更高的股價會影響激勵補償。 然後我想你也提到了某種主動投資。

But at a point, I think I might have heard Foundation some contribution as well. Are you able to sort of part and parcel if we're going to see maybe $100 million of total expense lift in the fourth quarter, you know, how much of that is ongoing stuff versus what people might sort of pull out as transitory? And then also appreciate that you suggested already not to annualize that, but just hoping for a little more deep dive in there as possible.

但在某個時刻，我想我可能也聽到了基金會的一些貢獻。 如果我們將在第四季度看到大約 1 億美元的總費用增加，你知道其中有多少是持續性的，而人們可能會暫時退出的，你能分清其中的一部分嗎？ 然後也要感謝您已經建議不要將其年度化，而只是希望盡可能更深入地研究。

Yeah. It's a good question. I think the annual -- the main point which you picked up on, which is don't annualize that number. I think the fair point is some of our business is variable in nature based on performance. So hard to quantify that. But frankly, if we have the revenues that dictate, we should be paying competition on that, we would take those unlike any in a week. So I think you have to think about some of that expense growth in the context of the revenue that's driving it.

是的。 這是一個好問題。 我認為年度——你提到的要點是不要將這個數字按年計算。 我認為公平的一點是，我們的一些業務本質上是根據績效而變化的。 很難量化這一點。 但坦白說，如果我們有足夠的收入，我們應該為此付出競爭，我們會在一周內拿走那些與眾不同的東西。 因此，我認為你必須在推動支出成長的收入背景下考慮一些支出成長。

And as Chris said, we're potentially leaning into some unique opportunities in the quarter. Those are going to be by their nature are not necessarily recurring. And and you know, I don't have a specific number for you, but clearly it's not and it's not appropriate to take the full amount of that. And I think we just got to fine tune a little bit of how much expense rolls into the run rate quarter.

正如克里斯所說，我們可能會在本季抓住一些獨特的機會。 這些就其本質而言並不一定會重複出現。 你知道，我沒有給你一個具體的數字，但顯然不是，而且全額拿走也是不合適的。 我認為我們只需對運行率季度的費用進行一些微調即可。

And a lot of that's going to be based on how much revenue we think it's supporting. So we do I need to do a little bit more work to give you a clean look. But I do think the again, the appropriate guide at this point would be mid to single digits for next year. And we owe you that, as I said, more detail when we come back at the end of the year.

其中很大一部分將取決於我們認為它能支持多少收入。 所以我們需要做更多的工作才能給你一個乾淨的外觀。 但我確實認為，明年的適當指導將是中位數到個位數。 正如我所說，我們欠你們更多細節，當我們年底回來時。

And at this time, there are no further questions. I'd now like to turn the call back to Chris Gorman for any closing comments.

而此時，已經沒有其他問題了。 我現在想將電話轉回給克里斯·戈爾曼，請其發表最後評論。

Again, we thank you for participating in our call today. If you have any follow-up questions, you can direct them to Brian and our Investor Relations team. We appreciate everyone's interest in Key and hope everyone has a great day. Goodbye.

我們再次感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。 如果您有任何後續問題，可以直接聯絡 Brian 和我們的投資者關係團隊。 我們感謝大家對 Key 的興趣，並希望大家有個愉快的一天。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。 感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。 您現在可以斷開連線。