KeyCorp (KEY) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Good morning, and welcome to KeyCorp's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to the Head of Investor Relations, Brian Mauney. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 KeyCorp 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管布萊恩·莫尼 (Brian Mauney)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to thank you for joining KeyCorp's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'm here with Chris Gorman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。感謝您參加 KeyCorp 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我和我們的董事長兼執行長克里斯·戈爾曼一起來到這裡。和我們的財務長克拉克·卡亞特 (Clark Khayat)。

As usual, we will reference our earnings presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the key.com website. In the back of the presentation, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures.

像往常一樣，我們將參考我們的收益簡報幻燈片，這些幻燈片可以在 key.com 網站的投資者關係部分找到。在簡報的後面，您將找到我們關於前瞻性揭露和某些財務指標（包括非公認會計原則指標）的聲明。

This covers our earnings materials as well as remarks made on this morning's call. Actual results may differ materially from forward-looking statements and the statements speak only as of today, July 18, 2024, and will not be updated.

這涵蓋了我們的收益資料以及今天早上電話會議上的言論。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有重大差異，這些陳述僅代表截至今天（2024 年 7 月 18 日）的情況，並且不會更新。

With that, I will turn it over to Chris.

這樣，我就把它交給克里斯了。

Thank you, Brian. And I'm on slide 2. This morning, we reported earnings of $237 million or $0.25 per share, which is down $0.02 from the year ago quarter, but up $0.05 sequentially. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, revenue was essentially flat as we offset the expected pullback in investment banking fees from a record first quarter with growth across the balance of the franchise.

謝謝你，布萊恩。我在投影片 2 上。與上一季相比，收入基本上持平，因為我們透過特許經營權餘額的成長抵消了第一季創紀錄的投資銀行費用的預期下降。

Expenses remained well controlled and credit costs were stable. Importantly, we continued to deliver on our clearly defined path to enhanced profitability as we did that we detailed a little over a year ago. Net interest income grew from what we continue to believe will be this cycle's low in the first quarter, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our NII commitments for both the full year 2024 as well as the fourth quarter exit rate.

費用控制良好，信貸成本穩定。重要的是，我們繼續按照我們一年多前詳細介紹的那樣，繼續實現明確的增強盈利能力的道路。我們仍然認為第一季的淨利息收入將創本週期的低點，我們仍然對履行 2024 年全年 NII 承諾以及第四季度退出率的能力充滿信心。

Deposit value creation continues to be a positive story for Key. This quarter deposits grew by 1% sequentially, while the pace of increase in deposit costs continued to decelerate. Additionally, non-interest bearing deposits stabilized at 20% of total deposits. We were also pleased to see client deposits up 5% year over year. Consumer relationship households are up 3.3% annualized year to date.

對 Key 來說，存款價值創造仍然是一個正面的故事。本季存款較上季成長1%，存款成本成長步伐持續放緩。此外，無利息存款佔存款總額的比例穩定在20%。我們也很高興看到客戶存款年增 5%。今年迄今，消費者關係家庭年增率為 3.3%。

Finally, we continue to be very disciplined with respect to pricing. Our cumulative deposit beta stands at 53% since the Fed began raising interest rates. With respect to non-interest income, we have made continued progress against our most important strategic initiatives.

最後，我們在定價方面仍然非常嚴格。自從聯準會開始升息以來，我們的累積存款貝塔值為 53%。在非利息收入方面，我們在最重要的策略性舉措方面不斷取得進展。

In our wealth management business targeting mass-affluent prospects production volumes hit another record in the second quarter as we added 5,600 households and over $600 million of household assets to the platform.

在我們針對大眾富裕人群的財富管理業務中，第二季產量再創新高，平台上新增了 5,600 個家庭和超過 6 億美元的家庭資產。

Since launching this business in March of last year, we have added over 31,000 households and about [$2.9 billion] of new household assets to keep. Within our existing customer base, we believe we have a great opportunity over [1 million] Key retail households have investable assets of over $250,000, and only about 10% are existing customers in our investment relations in our investment business.

自去年 3 月推出這項業務以來，我們已增加了 31,000 多戶家庭和約 [29 億美元] 的新家庭資產可供保留。在我們現有的客戶群中，我們相信我們擁有超過[100萬]個巨大的機會，主要零售家庭擁有超過25萬美元的可投資資產，而在我們的投資業務中，只有約10%是我們投資關係中的現有客戶。

Overall, as a company our assets under management have now reached $57.6 billion. In commercial payments, we continue to see strength in our commercial deposits with 9% growth year over year and a relatively flat beta since year end.

總體而言，作為一家公司，我們管理的資產現已達到 576 億美元。在商業支付方面，我們的商業存款持續保持強勁勢頭，年增 9%，自年底以來貝塔值相對持平。

Cash management fees are growing at approximately 10%. Our primary focus has made this a core competency for us. We continue to see momentum as our clients are more focused than ever on working capital solutions and driving efficiency in their own businesses.

現金管理費成長約 10%。我們的首要關注點已使其成為我們的核心競爭力。我們繼續看到勢頭，因為我們的客戶比以往任何時候都更加關注營運資本解決方案和提高自己業務的效率。

Additionally, our focus on verticals like healthcare, real estate and technology, create meaningful deposit opportunities and our embedded banking strategy was well timed given the growth we're seeing in that market.

此外，我們對醫療保健、房地產和技術等垂直行業的關注創造了有意義的存款機會，鑑於我們在該市場看到的增長，我們的嵌入式銀行策略恰逢其時。

In investment banking, as we have previously communicated, our second quarter fees were below those of the first quarter. Our positive outlook for the business, however, remains unchanged. Our pipelines are higher today than last quarter, year end and year-ago levels.

在投資銀行業務方面，正如我們之前所傳達的，我們第二季的費用低於第一季的費用。然而，我們對該業務的積極前景保持不變。今天我們的管道數量高於上季、年底和去年同期的水平。

Our M&A pipeline remains near record levels and the near-term outlook for other investment banking fee revenue streams have improved. At this point, we expect a stronger second half of the year consistent with our prior guidance.

我們的併購管道仍接近歷史最高水平，其他投資銀行費用收入來源的近期前景也有所改善。目前，我們預計今年下半年將表現強勁，與我們先前的指導一致。

Our national third party commercial loan servicing business also continues to perform well. This is a countercyclical business that also gives us unique insight into the commercial real estate market. We continue to feel very good about our growth prospects for this business.

我們的全國第三方商業貸款服務業務也持續表現良好。這是一項逆週期的業務，也讓我們對商業不動產市場有了獨特的洞見。我們仍然對這項業務的成長前景感到非常樂觀。

Lastly, on loans, broadly, loan demand remains tepid and the pricing environment remains competitive. It has also taken some time after our focus on improving our liquidity and capital ratios last year to get our machine fully up to speed.

最後，在貸款方面，整體而言，貸款需求仍然不溫不火，定價環境仍然具有競爭力。繼去年我們專注於改善流動性和資本比率之後，我們也花了一些時間讓我們的機器完全跟上。

Despite recent volume trends, we are optimistic we will start to see stabilization and potentially some growth in the back half of the year. Our pipelines are building in the middle market our pipelines are over 50% higher than last quarter, and in our institutional business engagements broadly are picking up as well.

儘管最近出現了成交量趨勢，但我們樂觀地認為，今年下半年將開始出現穩定並可能出現一些增長。我們的通路正在中端市場建設，我們的通路比上季高出 50% 以上，而且我們的機構業務參與度也普遍在回升。

Turning to capital, this quarter, our common equity Tier 1 ratio improved by roughly another 20 basis points to 10.5%. Our marked CET1 and tangible capital ratios also improved. As reported a few weeks ago, we have received the results of the Fed's stress test or deftest, which implied a preliminary stress capital buffer for Key of 3.1%, which is up 60 basis points from the SCB we received in 2022.

談到資本，本季度，我們的普通股一級資本比率又提高了約 20 個基點，達到 10.5%。我們顯著的 CET1 和有形資本比率也有所改善。正如幾週前報導的那樣，我們收到了聯準會壓力測試或債務測試的結果，這意味著 Key 的初步壓力資本緩衝為 3.1%，比我們在 2022 年收到的 SCB 上升了 60 個基點。

I'll make just a few comments first, even under this preliminary buffer, we have plenty of excess capital. Our 10.5% CET1 ratio compares to what would be a new 7.6% implied minimum. So the results continue to illustrate our strong capital position.

我先簡單說幾句，即使在這個初步緩衝之下，我們也有大量的過剩資本。我們的 CET1 比率為 10.5%，而新的隱含最低比率為 7.6%。因此，結果繼續說明了我們強大的資本狀況。

Secondly, we like others in our industry don't have insight into the Fed's models. The Fed's model loan losses for Key, particularly for our commercial real estate and first lien mortgage portfolios are inconsistent with our internally run stress tests.

其次，我們和我們行業的其他人一樣，對聯準會的模型沒有深入的了解。聯準會針對 Key 的貸款損失模型，尤其是我們的商業房地產和第一留置權抵押貸款投資組合，與我們內部運行的壓力測試不一致。

We look forward to a continued constructive dialogue with our regulators on this topic. Looking forward, I am excited about what lies ahead for Key. We have been discussing our net interest income pivot for each of the last several quarters. The pivot is now upon us. NII headwinds that we have experienced will now become NII tailwinds as we go forward.

我們期待與監管機構就這一主題繼續進行建設性對話。展望未來，我對 Key 的未來感到興奮。我們一直在討論過去幾季每季的淨利息收入支點。支點現在就在我們身上。隨著我們前進，我們經歷過的 NII 逆風現在將成為 NII 順風。

Concurrently, I'm also encouraged by the business momentum we continue to see across the franchise. We demonstrated momentum in wealth management and commercial payments again this past quarter, and we are driving meaningful client deposit growth across the entire franchise. Lastly, investment banking and loan pipelines are up meaningfully from prior periods.

同時，我也對我們在整個特許經營業務中持續看到的業務勢頭感到鼓舞。上個季度，我們再次展現了財富管理和商業支付的勢頭，並且我們正在推動整個特許經營業務的客戶存款有意義的成長。最後，投資銀行和貸款管道較前期顯著增加。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Clark to provide more details on our financial results. Clark?

這樣，我會將電話轉給克拉克，以提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。克拉克？

Thanks, Chris, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Now I'm in slide 4. So, the second quarter, as Chris mentioned, we reported earnings per share of $0.25, up $0.05 per share versus the first quarter or $0.03 per share adjusting for last quarter's FDIC special assessment.

謝謝克里斯，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。現在我在投影片4 中。收益增加0.03 美元。

Sequentially, revenue was essentially flat, down half of 1% as a 1.5% increase in net interest income was offset by a 3% decline in non-interest income, while expenses declined more meaningfully by 6% or 4% excluding FDIC assessment impacts.

隨後，收入基本上持平，下降了1% 的一半，因為淨利息收入1.5% 的成長被非利息收入3% 的下降所抵消，而支出則更有意義地下降了6% 或4%（不包括FDIC評估影響）。

Credit costs were stable and included roughly $10 million build to our allowance for credit losses this quarter. On a year-over-year basis, EPS declined driven by a tough net interest income comparison, but as we've shared previously, we expect NII will start to become a real tailwind next quarter and in the back half of the year.

信貸成本穩定，包括本季我們為信貸損失準備金增加的約 1,000 萬美元。與去年同期相比，由於淨利息收入比較嚴峻，每股收益有所下降，但正如我們之前所分享的，我們預計NII將在下個季度和今年下半年開始成為真正的推動力。

Non-interest income grew 3%, while expenses were flat. Moving to the balance sheet on slide 5. Average loans declined about 2% sequentially to $109 billion and ended the quarter at about $107 billion. The decline reflects tepid client demand, a 1% decline in C&I utilization rates, our disciplined approach to what we choose to put on our balance sheet and the intentional runoff of lower-yielding consumer loans as they pay down and mature.

非利息收入成長 3%，而支出持平。轉到投影片 5 的資產負債表。這一下降反映了客戶需求不溫不火、工商業利用率下降1%、我們對資產負債表選擇的嚴格態度以及低收益消費貸款在還款和到期時有意流失。

As Chris mentioned, we continue to have active dialogue with clients and prospects, and our loan pipelines are building nicely, which gives us optimism that balances will stabilize or begin to improve from June 30 levels.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們繼續與客戶和潛在客戶進行積極對話，我們的貸款管道建設良好，這讓我們樂觀地認為餘額將穩定或從 6 月 30 日的水平開始改善。

On slide 6, average deposits increased nearly 1% sequentially to $144 billion, reflecting growth across consumer and commercial deposits. Client deposits were up 5% year over year as broker deposits have come down by roughly $5.8 billion from a year ago levels.

在投影片 6 上，平均存款較上季成長近 1%，達到 1,440 億美元，反映了消費者和商業存款的成長。客戶存款年增 5%，而經紀商存款較去年同期減少約 58 億美元。

Both total and interest-bearing cost of deposits increased by 8 basis points during the quarter, a slower rate of increase compared to the first quarter as short-term rates have remained high. 3 basis points of the increase is due to the intentional addition of roughly $1.6 billion of time deposits, reflecting a more conservative approach as we prepare for anticipated changes in liquidity levels.

本季存款總成本和計息成本均上升 8 個基點，由於短期利率仍較高，增幅較一季放緩。增加 3 個基點是由於有意增加約 16 億美元的定期存款，反映出我們在為流動性水準的預期變化做準備時採取了更為保守的做法。

Non-interest bearing deposits stabilized at 20% of total deposits and when adjusted for non-interest bearing deposits in our hybrid accounts, this percentage remained flat linked quarter at 24%. Our cumulative interest bearing deposit beta was 53% since the Fed began raising interest rates.

無息存款穩定在存款總額的 20%，在混合帳戶中的無息存款進行調整後，這一百分比與季度保持持平，為 24%。自從聯準會開始升息以來，我們的累計計息存款貝塔值為 53%。

Our deposit rates remained stable across the franchise with ongoing testing by product and market. Given higher rates through the year, we have not seen as much opportunity to reduce deposit rates. However, we've continued to attract client deposits without having to leave the market on rates nor have we been paying the cash premiums and many of our competitors are offering to attract new operating accounts.

我們的存款利率在整個特許經營範圍內保持穩定，並持續進行產品和市場測試。鑑於今年利率較高，我們沒有看到太多降低存款利率的機會。然而，我們繼續吸引客戶存款，而不必離開利率市場，也沒有支付現金溢價，而且我們的許多競爭對手正在主動吸引新的營運帳戶。

Moving to net interest income and the margin on slide 7. Tax-equivalent net interest income was $899 million, up $13 million from the prior quarter. The benefit from fixed rate asset repricing mostly from swaps and short-dated US treasuries was partly offset by higher funding costs, lower loan balances and impact from roughly $1.25 billion of forward starting swaps that became effective this quarter.

轉向幻燈片 7 中的淨利息收入和利潤率。固定利率資產重新定價帶來的好處主要來自掉期和短期美國國債，但部分被較高的融資成本、較低的貸款餘額以及本季生效的約12.5 億美元遠期起始掉期的影響所抵消。

You will recall that we put the swaps in place in 2023 at a then prevailing forward rate of 3.4% as we were managing the roll off of the 2024 swaps. Net interest margin increased by 2 basis points to 2.04%. In addition to the NII drivers just mentioned, the previously mentioned liquidity build this quarter impacted again by about 2 basis points.

您可能還記得，我們​​在 2023 年以當時流行的遠期利率 3.4% 實施了掉期，當時我們正在管理 2024 年掉期的展期。淨利差上升2個基點至2.04%。除了剛才提到的NII驅動因素之外，前面提到的本季流動性建設再次受到約2個基點的影響。

Cash assets increased by roughly $3.5 billion sequentially. We continue to believe that our NIM bottomed in the third quarter of 2023 and NII bottomed in the first quarter of 2024.

現金資產季增約 35 億美元。我們仍然認為，我們的淨利差 (NIM) 將於 2023 年第三季觸底，NII 於 2024 年第一季觸底。

Turning to slide 8. Non-interest income was $627 million, up 3% year over year. Compared to the prior year the increase was primarily driven by Trust & Investment Services, commercial mortgage servicing fees and investment banking fees.

轉向幻燈片 8。與去年相比，成長主要由信託與投資服務、商業抵押貸款服務費和投資銀行費用所推動。

This offset a 21% decline in corporate services income which has reverted to a more normalized level at 2022 and the first half of 2023 benefited from elevated LIBOR-SOFR related transition activity. Commercial mortgage servicing fees rose 22% year over year, reflecting growth in servicing and active special servicing balances.

這抵消了企業服務收入 21% 的下降，該收入已於 2022 年恢復到更正常化的水平，並且 2023 年上半年受益於 LIBOR-SOFR 相關過渡活動的增加。商業抵押貸款服務費年增 22%，反映了服務和主動特殊服務餘額的成長。

At June 30, we service about $680 billion of assets on behalf of third-party clients, including about $230 billion of special servicing, $7 billion of which was in active special servicing. Trust and investment service fees grew 10% year over year as assets under management grew 7% to $57.6 billion.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們為第三方客戶提供了約 6,800 億美元的資產服務，其中包括約 2,300 億美元的特殊服務，其中 70 億美元用於主動特殊服務。信託和投資服務費年增 10%，管理資產成長 7%，達到 576 億美元。

We saw positive net new flows in the quarter and as Chris mentioned, sales production set another record in the quarter. Our investment banking fees were consistent with our prior guidance for the quarter. Across products, higher M&A and debt origination activity offset lower syndication and commercial mortgage activity.

我們在本季度看到了積極的淨新流量，正如克里斯所提到的，本季的銷售產量創下了另一紀錄。我們的投資銀行費用與我們先前對本季的指導一致。就產品而言，較高的併購和債務發起活動抵消了較低的銀團和商業抵押貸款活動。

On slide 9, second quarter non-interest expenses were $1.08 billion, flat year over year and down 4% sequentially excluding FDIC special assessments. This quarter, we incurred an additional $5 million FDIC charge on top of last quarter's $29 million offset.

在投影片 9 上，第二季非利息支出為 10.8 億美元，較去年同期持平，不包括 FDIC 特別評估，季減 4%。本季度，除了上季度 2,900 萬美元的抵銷額之外，我們還額外支付了 500 萬美元的 FDIC 費用。

On a year-over-year basis, personnel expenses were up due to Key tire stock price, offset by lower marketing and business services and professional fees. Sequentially, the decline was driven by lower incentive compensation and employee benefits from FICU seasonality in the first quarter.

與去年同期相比，由於 Key 輪胎股價上漲，人員費用有所增加，但行銷和商業服務以及專業費用的下降抵消了人員費用的增加。其次，下降的原因是第一季 FICU 季節性導致的激勵薪資和員工福利下降。

Moving to slide 10, credit quality remained solid. Net charge-offs were $91 million or 34 basis points of average loans and delinquencies ticked up a few basis points. Non-performing loans decreased 8% sequentially and remained low at 66 basis points of period-end loans at June 30. And as expected, the pace of increase in criticized loans slowed markedly to 6% in 2Q following our deep dive in the first quarter.

轉到投影片 10，信貸品質仍然穩定。淨沖銷額為 9,100 萬美元，相當於平均貸款的 34 個基點，拖欠率上升了幾個基點。截至 6 月 30 日，不良貸款環比下降 8%，仍處於期末貸款 66 個基點的低點。

We expect that to continue to moderate and flatten out by the end of the year, assuming no material macro deterioration.

假設宏觀經濟沒有實質惡化，我們預計到今年年底，這一趨勢將繼續放緩並趨於平穩。

Turning to slide 11, we continue to build our capital position with CET1 up 20 basis points in the second quarter to 10.5%. Our mark CET1 ratio rate, which includes unrealized AFS and pension losses improved to 7.3%, and our tangible common equity ratio increased to 5.2%.

轉向投影片 11，我們繼續建立資本頭寸，CET1 在第二季度上升了 20 個基點，達到 10.5%。我們的標記 CET1 比率（包括未實現的 AFS 和退休金損失）提高至 7.3%，有形普通股比率提高至 5.2%。

The increases reflect work, we've done over the past year to build capital and reduce our exposure to higher rates. We have reduced our DV01 by 20% over the past 12 months. And at June 30, our balance sheet is effectively interest rate neutral over a 12 month run.

這些成長反映了我們在過去一年為累積資本和減少利率上升所做的工作。在過去 12 個月裡，我們將 DV01 減少了 20%。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的資產負債表在 12 個月內實際上保持利率中立。

Quite higher rates, our AOCI improved by about $170 million to negative $5.1 billion at quarter end, including $4.3 billion related to AFS.

由於利率相當高，我們的 AOCI 在季度末改善了約 1.7 億美元，達到負 51 億美元，其中包括與 AFS 相關的 43 億美元。

On the right side of this slide, we've extended our AOCI projections through 2026. As we've been doing, we show two scenarios the forward curve as of June 30, which assumes six cuts through 2026 and another scenario where rates are held at June 30 levels throughout the forecast time horizon.

在這張投影片的右側，我們將AOCI 預測延長至2026 年。次降息，另一個情景是維持利率不變在整個預測時間範圍內，該值將保持在 6 月 30 日的水平。

With the forward curve we would expect AOCI to improve by $1.9 billion or 39% by year end 2026. The current remain -- rates remain in place we would still expect $1.7 billion of improvement given the maturities, cash flow and time.

根據遠期曲線，我們預計 AOCI 到 2026 年底將改善 19 億美元，即 39%。

Slide 12 provides our outlook for 2024 relative to 2023. Our P&L guidance remains unchanged across all major line items. We have updated our loan guidance to reflect the lack of demand we referenced. We now expect average loans to be down 7% to 8% in 2024 and for the year end 2024 loans to be down 4% to 5% compared to the end of 2023.

投影片 12 提供了我們相對於 2023 年對 20​​24 年的展望。我們更新了貸款指引，以反映我們提到的需求不足的情況。我們目前預計 2024 年平均貸款將比 2023 年底下降 7% 至 8%，2024 年底貸款將比 2023 年底下降 4% 至 5%。

This implies fourth quarter loan balances are flat to up $1 billion from June 30 levels. We also have already revised our average deposit guidance to relatively stable from flat to down 2% with client deposit growth in the low single digit range. We continue to believe we can hit our full year 2024 and fourth-quarter exit rate net interest income commitments, even if loan volumes end up slightly short of our revised target.

這意味著第四季度貸款餘額與 6 月 30 日的水平持平或增加 10 億美元。我們也已將平均存款指引從持平下調至下降 2%，調整為相對穩定，客戶存款成長保持在較低的個位數範圍內。我們仍然相信，即使貸款量最終略低於我們修訂後的目標，我們仍能實現 2024 年全年和第四季退出率淨利息收入承諾。

On slide 13, we update the net interest income opportunity from swaps and short-dated treasuries maturing. The cumulative opportunity stood at about $950 million using the June 30 forward curve, little change from last quarter.

在投影片 13 中，我們更新了互換和到期短期國債的淨利息收入機會。使用 6 月 30 日遠期曲線計算，累計機會約 9.5 億美元，與上季相比變化不大。

As at the end of the second quarter, we've realized approximately 50% of this opportunity, which is shown on the left side in the gray bars. This leads about $480 million annualized NII opportunity left, which we expect to capture over the next three quarters with the most meaningful benefits expected to occur in the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2025.

截至第二季末，我們已經實現了大約 50% 的機會，如左側灰色條所示。這導致年化 NII 機會約 4.8 億美元，我們預計將在未來三個季度抓住這些機會，最有意義的效益預計將在 2025 年第四季和第一季出現。

Moving to slide 14. We've laid out for you the path of how we intend to get from the $899 million of reported net interest income in the second quarter to a $1 billion-plus number by the end of the year under a couple of potential rate scenarios. In short, we believe we have about $130 million of tailwinds from lower fixed rate assets and swaps running off and from higher day count.

轉向投影片 14。簡而言之，我們認為較低的固定利率資產和掉期資金流失以及較高的天數將帶來約 1.3 億美元的推動力。

The rest largely net out that includes what we believe are relatively conservative assumptions around modest loan growth, deposit cost, funding mix in near term, negative NII impact from the Fed rate cut or two. In the top walk, we've laid out the drivers of the growth, assuming the Fed cuts once in December.

其餘的大部分都被排除在外，包括我們認為相對保守的假設，包括適度的貸款成長、存款成本、近期融資組合、聯準會一兩次降息帶來的負面NII影響。在上面的分析中，我們列出了經濟成長的驅動因素，假設聯準會在 12 月降息一次。

In this scenario, we expect about $80 million benefit from swaps and US treasuries. We also expect growth for redeployment of lower yielding assets more specifically, approximately $2 billion of other security cash flows in the back half of the year and about $1.5 billion of maturing consumer loans.

在這種情況下，我們預計互換和美國國債將帶來約 8,000 萬美元的收益。我們也預計，更具體地說，低收益資產的重新部署將出現成長，即今年下半年約 20 億美元的其他安全現金流和約 15 億美元的到期消費貸款。

Day count and some pickup in loan fees drives the other $10 million to $15 million. In the bottom lock, we performed the same exercise, but this time, assuming the Fed cuts by 25 basis points in September and again in December, but we still believe we can comfortably achieve our full year NII target rate in this scenario, we do become a little tighter on fourth quarter exit rate, although we still think we'll hit that guide.

天數計算和貸款費用的部分增加推動了剩餘的 1000 萬美元至 1500 萬美元。在底部鎖定中，我們進行了相同的操作，但這一次，假設美聯儲在9 月和12 月再次降息25 個基點，但我們仍然相信在這種情況下我們可以輕鬆實現全年NII 目標利率，我們認為儘管我們仍然認為我們會達到這一目標，但第四季度的退出率變得更加嚴格。

Keep in mind while two rate cuts this year would have a near-term impact on NII as it takes time to deploy deposit beta, we would expect to recapture that effect in 2025. It would also likely drive improved balance sheet dynamics as we would see benefit from the approximately $7 billion of forward starting received fixed swaps that come off in the first half of 2025 as we position ourselves to be modestly liability-sensitive next year.

請記住，雖然今年的兩次降息將對NII產生短期影響，因為部署存款貝塔值需要時間，但我們預計將在2025年重新獲得這種影響。負債表動態的改善我們將受益於 2025 年上半年發放的約 70 億美元的遠期起始固定掉期，因為我們將自己定位為明年的適度負債敏感型。

In addition, rate cuts would most likely provide benefits beyond NII, higher client transaction activity, more demand for credit and improvements capital, so we would welcome this trade-off.

此外，降息很可能會帶來NII以外的好處、更高的客戶交易活動、更多的信貸需求和改善資本，因此我們歡迎這種權衡。

With that, I'll now turn the call back to the operator for instructions for the Q&A portion of our call. Operator?

這樣，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以獲取電話問答部分的說明。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Good morning, Ebrahim.

早安，易卜拉欣。

So I guess maybe just starting out with NII, I mean, it's a huge focus for the stock. I'm looking at slide 14, it seems like the $120 million is locked in no matter what so fourth quarter NII one or two. And then the upside from there is driven by how some of the second part of that or walk works out.

所以我想也許只是從 NII 開始，我的意思是，這是股票的一個巨大焦點。我正在看幻燈片 14，看起來 1.2 億美元無論如何都被鎖定了，所以第四季度 NII 一兩個。然後，從那裡開始的好處是由第二部分或步行的效果所驅動的。

So give us a sense of on the downside risk on NII, if loan growth ends up being weaker or negative in the back half and implications, I guess more so for '25 versus '24, just talk to us in terms of the you've given good color on the Fed rates. I'm just wondering what weaker loan growth would imply in the scenario where we get to the [2.5 name versus the 2.4]?

因此，請讓我們了解NII 的下行風險，如果貸款增長最終在後半段變得疲軟或為負，以及影響，我想“25 年與24 年”相比更是如此，請與我們談談“您」的情況我們對聯準會利率給出了很好的描述。我只是想知道在我們達到 [2.5 名稱與 2.4 名稱] 的情況下，貸款增長疲軟意味著什麼？

Yeah. Okay. Thank you, Ebrahim. And maybe I'll just kind of reground everybody in the whole thing and then I'll get to your question because I'm sure this is not -- you're not unique in the NII question for the fourth quarter.

是的。好的。謝謝你，易卜拉欣。也許我會重新審視整個事情中的每個人，然後我會回答你的問題，因為我確信這不是——你在第四季度的國家資訊基礎設施問題中並不是唯一的。

So first of all, I think we've been really consistent or tried to be that a lot of this pull through will happen in the second half of '24, which we would expect well materialize as you see on this slide and you noted. So we've talked a lot about the structural roll off and swaps and treasuries.

首先，我認為我們一直非常一致或試圖在 24 年下半年實現這一目標，我們預計這會很好地實現，正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的那樣，您也注意到了。我們已經討論了很多關於結構性減損、掉期和國債的問題。

So just a reminder, $5.5 billion to treasuries maturing in the second half at an average yield of about 47 basis points, $3.8 billion of swaps at about 60 basis points, and then $2 billion of securities repricing at roughly a low to mid 2% yield.

提醒一下，下半年到期的國債有55 億美元，平均收益率約為47 個基點，掉期交易有38 億美元，收益率約為60 個基點，然後有20 億美元的證券以大約2%的中低收益率重新定價。

So just that's the piece on the left that you referred to, there's another $10 million to $15 million in day count and fees. So again, we feel fairly good about that pulling through. We do expect deposit cost to continue to rise. So let's assume one cut coming in December, we guided to a mid-50s beta if there's no cuts. So a little bit of drift up if there's one cut in December, that will be impacted materially.

這就是您提到的左側部分，還有另外 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元的日數和費用。再說一遍，我們對這次渡過難關感到相當滿意。我們確實預計存款成本將持續上升。因此，讓我們假設 12 月將進行一次削減，如果沒有削減，我們指導到 50 年代中期的測試版。因此，如果 12 月降息的話，價格會略有上升，這將受到重大影響。

We will see some benefit on betas if there's a cut in September, but we will also see the impact obviously of loan yields coming down and that will happen in advance, not just because the loans reprice immediately. But so far will reflect that as you know, a little bit before that cut.

如果 9 月降息，我們將看到貝塔值有一些好處，但我們也會看到貸款收益率明顯下降的影響，而且這種影響會提前發生，而不僅僅是因為貸款立即重新定價。但正如你所知，到目前為止，這一點將在削減之前反映出來。

So there's a little bit of negative drag in 2024 if there's a first cut in September. As you commented, right, loan balances will be the variable. So we've been a little weaker in the quarter than planned. As Chris said, our pipelines are strengthening materially. I think that's a function of ongoing engagement with our teams, with clients and prospects.

因此，如果 9 月首次降息，2024 年會出現一些負面拖累。正如您所評論的，貸款餘額將是變數。因此，我們本季的業績比計劃的要弱一些。正如克里斯所說，我們的管道正在實質加強。我認為這是我們與團隊、客戶和潛在客戶持續互動的結果。

As you said, middle market is up 50%-plus on the pipeline side. So we do expect and are starting to see some traction in the back half. I think if there's a little bit lighter loan growth than what we guided to, we'll still be okay getting there. I think if it's materially lower than yield that's a different conversation.

正如您所說，中間市場在管道方面上漲了 50% 以上。因此，我們確實預計並開始看到後半場有一些牽引力。我認為，如果貸款成長比我們指導的要少一些，我們仍然可以實現這一目標。我認為如果它大大低於產量，那就是不同的主題了。

What the real implication is, I think and probably where your question is going is what does that mean for 2025 and the size of the balance sheet and the loan book going there. So look, I do think we all expect rate cuts to come, although I'm certainly not very good at predicting the economy.

我認為真正的意義是什麼，你的問題可能是這對 2025 年意味著什麼，以及資產負債表和貸款帳簿的規模。所以看，我確實認為我們都預期降息將會到來，儘管我當然不太會預測經濟。

So I've tried to do that, but should we get some rate cuts? We do think that will create more client activity were already as we talked about in pipeline and engagement dialogues seeing client interest in that. I think that means even if we start with a lower exit rate on loans, we will see good strong growth going into 2025 on loans.

所以我已經嘗試這樣做了，但是我們應該降息嗎？我們確實認為這將創造更多的客戶活動，正如我們在管道和參與對話中談到的那樣，看到客戶對此感興趣。我認為這意味著即使我們一開始就降低貸款退出率，我們也將看到貸款在 2025 年出現強勁增長。

In the 12 years, I've been a Key other than the last 12 months, we've been a leader on commercial loan growth. And I don't see anything today that would cause me to believe that will be different going forward. But I do think it's valuable maybe to add a couple pieces of content on 2025 that we really haven't covered we've been laser focused on 2024 swaps and treasuries.

在這 12 年裡，我一直是關鍵，除了過去 12 個月，我們一直是商業貸款成長的領導者。今天我沒有看到任何事情能讓我相信未來會有所不同。但我確實認為，在 2025 年添加一些我們確實沒有涵蓋的內容可能是有價值的，我們一直專注於 2024 年掉期和國債。

So let me just add something that we've included in the appendix on slide 20, which just gives you some sense of maybe some repricing opportunity in '25 as well. And that is about $20 billion of additional asset repricing that comes next year.

因此，讓我添加一些我們在投影片 20 的附錄中包含的內容，這只是讓您了解 25 年可能會有一些重新定價的機會。這相當於明年將進行約 200 億美元的額外資產重新定價。

Those yields are low 3%, and that comprised of $5.2 billion of swaps coming off of [1.80%. So some more swap pickup, not as meaningful as what we're seeing today, but not meaningful at those levels, another $11 billion-plus of fixed rate loan repricing that are coming off at 4.15% and then $4.2 billion of fixed rate securities that are about 2.75%].

這些收益率低至 3%，其中包括 52 億美元的掉期利率[1.80%。因此，更多的掉期交易，雖然不像我們今天看到的那麼有意義，但在那些水準上也沒有意義，另外110 億美元以上的固定利率貸款重新定價將達到4.15%，然後是42 億美元的固定利率證券約為2.75%]。

So a definite opportunity there. You'll also get the full year move and impact of fourth-quarter treasuries that will come off the books and swaps. And then as rate cuts come in, we'll have the full year '25 to deploy that beta into our consumer book.

所以這是一個絕對的機會。您還將獲得第四季度國債的全年變動和影響，這些變動和影響將從帳簿和掉期中扣除。然後，隨著降息的到來，我們將在 25 年全年將該測試版部署到我們的消費者帳戶中。

So I do think there are headwinds or tailwinds for us, sorry, as we get into 2025. And I think, we have confidence we'll be able to grow loans and add clients on the commercial side as well.

因此，我確實認為，抱歉，隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們將面臨逆風或順風 而且我認為，我們有信心能夠增加貸款並在商業方面增加客戶。

That's good color. Thanks, Clark for walking through. The other question, just on slide 10. You look at NPLs and criticized picking up sequentially, we are seeing a lot of banks talk more about losses coming from C&I. Remind us in terms of your outlook on sort of what you are seeing from your customers and C&I, any specific areas where you're seeing credit degradation that could lead to just higher NPLs going forward and charge-offs? Thank you.

這顏色真好啊謝謝克拉克走過來。另一個問題，就在幻燈片 10 上。請提醒我們，您對客戶和 C&I 的看法，您認為信用惡化的任何特定領域可能會導致未來不良貸款和沖銷的增加？謝謝。

So Ebrahim, it's Chris. A couple of things. One, the normal migration from criticized to non-performers, it's playing out exactly as we would have expected it to. Stepping back for just a second, our C&I book, 53% of it is investment grade, 70% is secured. And so -- and most of them are have very low utilization in terms of borrowing. So we start from a pretty good place.

易卜拉欣，是克里斯。有幾件事。第一，從受到批評的人到表現不佳的人的正常轉變，它的發展完全符合我們的預期。退後一步，我們的 C&I 帳簿中，53% 是投資等級，70% 是擔保等級。因此，他們中的大多數在藉貸方面的利用率非常低。所以我們從一個非常好的地方開始。

Your question's a good one, though, as to where sort of the action is and let me tell you where we're seeing some people impacted by the higher for longer scenario consumer goods, some business services, some equipment businesses.

不過，你的問題很好，關於採取何種行動，讓我告訴你，我們在哪些地方看到一些人受到長期情境消費品、一些商業服務和一些設備業務的較高影響。

On the other side of the equation, we're starting to see actually healing in the health care sector. So think about seniors housing, think about facilities based health care, we're seeing that kind of going in the other direction.

另一方面，我們開始看到醫療保健產業的實際復甦。因此，想想老年人的住房，想想基於設施的醫療保健，我們看到這種情況正朝著另一個方向發展。

The other thing that we always look at is what's the mix of downgrades to upgrades and downgrades still exceed upgrades, but that ratio is starting to close. So that's kind of how we're thinking about it. Obviously, C&I is a very broad category in general, but that's kind of a sort of how we're thinking about it.

我們經常關注的另一件事是，降級與升級的組合是多少，降級仍然超過升級，但這個比率開始接近。這就是我們的想法。顯然，C&I 總的來說是一個非常廣泛的類別，但這就是我們思考它的方式。

And the only other thing if we might just follow on from the financial standpoint, we built the reserve very strongly over the last 12 months. We came in, I think, solidly in net charge-off and provision in the quarter, we do expect some normalization.

如果我們從財務角度來看的話，唯一的另一件事是，我們在過去 12 個月建立了非常強大的儲備。我認為，我們在本季的淨沖銷和準備金方面表現強勁，我們確實預計會出現一些正常化。

So we'd expect net charge-offs to pick up in the back half. That's, I think, fairly consistent with where we've been we're comfortable in our 30 basis points to 40 basis points range. I did say last month, we probably tend to the higher end of that, but that's really a denominator issue on loans versus more charge-offs than expected.

因此，我們預計淨沖銷將在後半段增加。我認為，這與我們一直在 30 基點到 40 基點範圍內感到滿意的情況相當一致。我上個月確實說過，我們可能傾向於較高的一端，但這實際上是貸款與比預期更多的沖銷的分母問題。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Siefers, Piper Sandler.

斯科特·西弗斯，派珀·桑德勒。

Morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. So Clark, appreciate that sort of walk through on the NII, still have sort of NII related question. Maybe when you look at sort of the deposits that -- so the deposits base looks like it's going to come in better than you had anticipated previously. Can you maybe walk through what kinds of deposits are growing and what sort of what the spread looks like on those.

早安，夥計們。感謝您提出問題。因此，克拉克（Clark）欣賞 NII 上的這種演練，但仍有一些與 NII 相關的問題。也許當你查看某種存款時，存款基礎看起來會比你之前預期的要好。您能否介紹一下哪些類型的存款正在成長以及這些存款的利差是什麼樣的。

So I think there's probably some question if we dialed back the loan growth expectation, but we're still getting funds in that will go into something? Just sort of what that spread looks like in your view?

因此，我認為，如果我們回撤貸款成長預期，可能會出現一些問題，但我們仍然會獲得資金用於某些方面？在您看來，這種價差是什麼樣的？

Yeah. So good thanks Scott, for the question. So one, I'd say we're always trying to grow operating accounts and checking accounts. So we're going to do that kind of regardless of what we think's happening on the asset side of the balance sheet.

是的。非常感謝斯科特提出的問題。因此，我想說，我們一直在努力增加經營帳戶和支票帳戶。因此，無論我們認為資產負債表的資產方面發生了什麼，我們都會這樣做。

We did mention we added a little bit of CDs intentionally just to get ahead of what we think are some tightening liquidity expectations. And if we don't see loan growth for whatever reason. Again, we don't expect that we do have some funding optimization, whether it's continuing to drive down the brokered CDs or FHLB advances.

我們確實提到，我們有意添加了一些存款準備金，只是為了提前應對我們認為的流動性收緊預期。如果出於某種原因我們沒有看到貸款成長。同樣，我們並不期望我們確實有一些融資優化，無論是繼續壓低經紀 CD 還是 FHLB 預付款。

So we think we'll have some opportunity to do that. We have built the cash position. So at the end of the quarter, we were kind of in the $15 billion range. So that gives you some indication of where that cash is sitting at the moment.

所以我們認為我們將有機會做到這一點。我們已經建立了現金部位。所以到本季末，我們的營收大概是 150 億美元左右。因此，這可以讓您了解現金目前的情況。

But I would say just on deposits, maybe highlight a couple of things on where we see the back half going one, I think, positively in the commercial book, we continue to have very active dialogue with clients about their accounts.

但我想說的是，就存款而言，也許要強調一些我們看到後半部分進展的事情，我認為，在商業書籍中，我們繼續與客戶就他們的帳戶進行非常積極的對話。

We've talked a lot about hybrids, for example, that continues to be a really good product for our clients and for Key. And we've actually moved pretty meaningfully the percentage of clients that we would deem as sort of index or index like so as we have dialogues, they talk about rates we've been able to move them to a more indexed like product or structure with obviously anticipation of down rates.

例如，我們已經談論了很多關於混合動力車的問題，這對我們的客戶和 Key 來說仍然是一個非常好的產品。事實上，我們已經相當有意義地改變了我們認為是索引或索引的客戶百分比，因此當我們進行對話時，他們談論我們能夠將他們轉移到索引程度更高的產品或結構的比率顯然對降息的預期。

So we think that will benefit us when cuts start to come down. And we're continuing to shorten the CD maturities rates have stayed higher. So we haven't been as active driving those prices down. But we have been pulling in the maturities and we do have a decent amount coming due here in the fourth quarter that we'll be able to reprice to the extent rates do come down. So that's kind of the one view on that.

因此，我們認為，當削減開始下降時，這將使我們受益。我們正在繼續縮短定期存單的到期日，利率一直保持在較高水準。因此，我們並沒有那麼積極地壓低這些價格。但我們一直在延長到期日，並且我們確實有相當多的到期日將在第四季度到期，我們將能夠在利率確實下降的情況下重新定價。這就是對此的一種看法。

And we'd expect, we've been pretty clear conservatively on down betas if there's one type, if there's a second cut, we'll obviously have more opportunity to deploy that in the fourth quarter, but we still think we'll probably lag a little bit, but that will be a tailwind for '25.

我們預計，如果有一種類型，如果有第二次削減，我們對下調測試版的保守態度非常明確，我們顯然會有更多機會在第四季度部署它，但我們仍然認為我們可能會有點滯後，但這將是25 年的順風車。

Perfect. Okay. Thank you, Clark. And then a little bit of a ticky-tack question on the swaps commentary on slide 13. So you said the $950 million annualized opportunity, which was that down a little from $975 million last quarter. So I've gotten a couple of questions. Is that represent a reduction in expectations? Or is it that we've just already absorbed that difference in the 1950s? What's still remaining in the future?

完美的。好的。謝謝你，克拉克。然後是關於幻燈片 13 上掉期評論的一個棘手問題。所以我有幾個問題。這是否意味著期望的降低？或者我們在 20 世紀 50 年代就已經吸收了這種差異？未來還剩下什麼？

It should be a function of just where rates are as we do the calculation, but I can -- we can follow up and give you this the detail on that. If the forward curves come down a little bit, that would impact that.

它應該是我們計算時費率的函數，但我可以——我們可以跟進並向您提供相關細節。如果遠期曲線下降一點，就會產生影響。

Okay. Perfect. All right, good. Thank you for taking the questions.

好的。完美的。好吧，很好。感謝您提出問題。

Yeah. Thanks, Scott.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。

Ken Usdin, Jefferies.

肯‧烏斯丁，傑弗里斯。

Hey, guys, good morning. Just to follow up on just of loans in the context of the whole balance sheet. So I'm just wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on just how much of the loan growth versus what we see in [H8]. We see appears just you guys just being more conservative.

嘿，夥計們，早安。只是為了在整個資產負債表的背景下跟進貸款。所以我只是想知道您是否可以給我們更多關於貸款增長與我們在 [H8] 中看到的情況相比的信息。我們看到你們似乎只是更保守。

And can you talk a little bit about like how much did you keep of your originated, did that change? And where specifically, when you mentioned earlier, Clark, the pipelines, like what areas do you see those pipelines coming in? Is it more just a straight-up commercial? Thanks.

可以談談你保留了多少你的起源嗎？克拉克，當您之前提到管道時，您認為這些管道會進入哪些區域？它比較像是直接的廣告嗎？謝謝。

Sure, Ken. It's Chris, let me start by kind of sharing with you kind of what's going on out there in the marketplace because I think loan demand is pretty tepid, across the board and here's what we're talking to clients, I think these are the unknowns that are keeping people from borrowing in general.

當然，肯。我是克里斯，首先讓我與您分享市場上正在發生的事情，因為我認為貸款需求全面不溫不火，這就是我們正在與客戶交談的內容，我認為這些都是未知數這使得人們普遍不敢借貸。

One is just concerned about the economy, what's the trajectory? The next is rates and it's two things. One, obviously, the cost of capital has gone up significantly as Fed funds rose from 25 bps to 525 bps. But on top of that, we've just had a lot of volatility in the 10-year.

人們只是關心經濟，它的軌跡是什麼？接下來是費率，這是兩件事。第一，顯然，隨著聯邦基金利率從 25 個基點升至 525 個基點，資本成本顯著上升。但最重要的是，我們在過去十年中經歷了很大的波動。

And so today, it's around 4.2%, I actually think will have higher for longer. And I think once that settles and people will borrow, but as I talk to clients, if they think that it's going to go down and they think rates are going to go down and go down precipitously, they're less inclined to make a move.

所以今天，這個數字約為 4.2%，我實際上認為這個數字會持續更長的時間。我認為一旦這種情況解決了，人們就會借錢，但當我與客戶交談時，如果他們認為利率會下降並且利率會下降並且急劇下降，他們就不太願意採取行動。

Also, there's kind of a 12 to 18 month lead time around most big CapEx and property plant and equipment projects and people have kind of been putting those on hold. I think the election I think that also is just another variable out there a lot of these closely held businesses because they think about things like tax policy and the ability to take accelerated depreciation. So I think all of those are in the mix.

此外，大多數大型資本支出和房地產工廠和設備項目都有 12 至 18 個月的交付時間，人們已經將其擱置。我認為選舉也是許多封閉型企業的另一個變量，因為他們會考慮稅收政策和加速折舊的能力等議題。所以我認為所有這些都在其中。

The next thing that I think also impacts it is there's no question that the rate of inflation is coming down. And so people that were first during the pandemic motivated to kind of go long inventory because of the supply issues, then they were motivated to go long inventory because of inflation that's kind of wearing off. So what we actually saw was a contraction in our utilization rate by a percentage point.

我認為對它也有影響的下一件事是毫無疑問通貨膨脹率正在下降。因此，在大流行期間，由於供應問題，人們首先被激勵做多庫存，然後，由於通膨逐漸減弱，他們又被激勵做多庫存。所以我們實際看到的是我們的利用率下降了一個百分點。

going to your question about kind of what we keep on the balance sheet and what we place in the quarter just ended, we raised $23 billion for the benefit of our customers, and we kept 16% of it on our balance sheet.

關於你關於我們在資產負債表上保留什麼以及我們在剛結束的季度中放置什麼的問題，我們為了客戶的利益籌集了 230 億美元，並將其中的 16％保留在我們的資產負債表上。

And typically throughout our history, we typically would have 20%, 16% is up a bit from last quarter. So that kind of gives you a sort of a flavor of what's going on. There is I sat down with all of our senior credit officers yesterday and we are seeing in the marketplace some degradation in terms of structure and on as people compete for on the loans that are out there.

通常在我們的歷史中，我們通常會達到 20%，比上季略有上升 16%。所以這會讓你對正在發生的事情有所了解。昨天我與我們所有的高級信貸官員坐下來，我們看到市場在結構和人們爭奪貸款方面出現了一些退化。

We clearly are not going to reach infrastructure at all. We don't feel like we need to do that. But that is an element but it's not the lion's share of what's going on. On the positive side, we're starting to see transactional finance starting to come into the pipeline, for example, in our real estate business, 30% of the pipeline right now is transactional, which is a big change. So maybe hopefully that's helpful, Ken, in terms of how we're thinking about it what's going on out in the marketplace.

顯然我們根本不會到達基礎設施。我們覺得沒有必要這樣做。但這是一個因素，但不是所發生的事情的主要部分。從積極的一面來看，我們開始看到交易性金融開始進入管道，例如，在我們的房地產業務中，目前 30% 的管道是交易性的，這是一個很大的變化。因此，肯，希望這對我們如何思考市場上正在發生的事情有所幫助。

Great. Thank you for that color. And second question is just when we think about just the entirety of the balance sheet, your RWAs have come down a lot over the last year or so. CET1 is growing CET1, even with AOCI we can see in slide 24 up to [7.3], the stress test went a little bit tougher.

偉大的。謝謝你的那個顏色。第二個問題是，當我們考慮整個資產負債表時，您的 RWA 在過去一年左右已經下降了很多。 CET1 正在成長 CET1，即使使用 AOCI，我們可以在幻燈片 24 到 [7.3] 中看到，壓力測試變得更加嚴格。

So just how important is that is managing to that with AOCI number, if at all, relative to your 10, 3 regular way and just how you're thinking about just managing your capital position vis a vis the loan book and RWA growth? Thanks.

那麼，相對於您的 10、3 常規方式，管理 AOCI 數字（如果有的話）有多重要，以及您如何考慮相對於貸款帳簿和 RWA 增長來管理您的資本頭寸？謝謝。

Ken, we feel good about our capital position. Obviously, since the beginning of since the initial proposal, the Basel III endgame. Clearly, when the re proposal comes out, it will be pushed out and it will be less severe. We had said initially that we had a clear path to get to where we wanted to get to on both the CET1 and a marked CET1 and that really hasn't changed.

肯，我們對我們的資本狀況感覺良好。顯然，自從最初的提案開始以來，巴塞爾協議III就已經結束了。顯然，當重新提案出來時，它會被推遲，而且不會那麼嚴重。我們最初說過，我們有一條明確的路徑可以在 CET1 和標記的 CET1 上到達我們想要到達的地方，這一點確實沒有改變。

The other thing that I've said in the past is I think, as all these rules are applied and there's a lot of question marks because we've got the long-term debt proposal, we've got the Basel III endgame. I think when you put it all together, I'm not -- I won't be surprised that most people are where we are right now where you have kind of a mid-70s sort of loan to deposit ratio. But that remains to be seen because we are yet to know we'll have to see how it plays out on a couple of these rules.

我過去說過的另一件事是，我認為，由於所有這些規則都得到應用，並且存在許多問號，因為我們已經有了長期債務提案，我們已經有了巴塞爾協議 III 的結局。我認為，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我不會感到驚訝，因為大多數人都處於我們現在所處的位置，貸存比處於 70 年代中期的水平。但這還有待觀察，因為我們還不知道我們必須看看它如何在這些規則中發揮作用。

Okay, got it. Thank you, Chris.

好，知道了。謝謝你，克里斯。

Thank you, Ken.

謝謝你，肯。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Hi, good morning. (multiple speakers) hey, I'm just on slide 14. So it's pretty clear that $899 million-plus let's call it $125 million you've got [$1.24 billion] in theory, quote in the bag for 4Q '24. And I'm wondering of those green bars question Chris and Clark in terms of improved funding mix and loan growth, and we just heard Chris talk about how perhaps the macro environment is not that great for loan growth.

早安. （多個發言者）嘿，我只是在幻燈片14 上。季度的數據。我想知道那些綠條在改善融資組合和貸款成長方面向克里斯和克拉克提出了問題，我們剛剛聽到克里斯談論宏觀環境可能對貸款成長不太有利。

Could you walk us through sort of the probability of those green bars being green and obviously, the last two will have everything to do with the rate curve rate. So and you gave us pretty good guardrails in terms of how to think about deposit costs. But tell us a little bit more about how you plan to achieve the improved funding mix in the loan growth to be net positive to that number?

您能否向我們介紹一下這些綠色條變成綠色的機率，顯然，最後兩個條與利率曲線利率有關。因此，您在如何考慮存款成本方面為我們提供了一個很好的護欄。但請告訴我們更多關於您計劃如何改善貸款成長中的融資組合以實現該數字的淨正值？

Sure. So let me handle the first one, Erika. So look on improved funding mix. We're still sitting on something on the order of kind of $7 billion in FHLB advances. So we have some opportunity to continue to bring that down. We've brought brokered down close to $6 billion over the last year, but still some opportunity to manage that as well.

當然。那麼讓我來處理第一個，艾莉卡。因此，著眼於改善融資組合。我們仍然坐擁 FHLB 約 70 億美元的預付款。所以我們有機會繼續降低這種情況。去年我們已將經紀費用減少了近 60 億美元，但仍有一些機會來管理這一點。

And then on the margin, we can kind of calibrate where we think overall deposit costs will be based on the size of the balance sheet and the loan book. So we do think we have some opportunity to do that and a little bit of leverage here in the back half of the year on maturities around things like CDs and MMDA.

然後在邊際上，我們可以根據資產負債表和貸款帳簿的規模來調整我們認為整體存款成本的水平。因此，我們確實認為我們有一些機會做到這一點，並在今年下半年在 CD 和 MMDA 等到期日上發揮一些槓桿作用。

So we're looking at that very dynamically. We're watching our loan pipelines as they materialize, and we feel like we should be able to pivot one way or the other based on how much traction we're getting on loans.

所以我們正在非常動態地看待這個問題。我們正在關注我們的貸款管道的落實，我們認為我們應該能夠根據我們獲得的貸款吸引力有多大來進行調整。

Erika, where we would expect to get loan growth are in areas where we've always been able to get a lot of loan growth, things like renewables that are we're a market leader and those are project financings where we were not aggressive last year and now we are things like affordable similarly and also sort of a health care area where there's just a lot of consolidation.

艾莉卡，我們期望獲得貸款成長的領域是我們一直能夠獲得大量貸款成長的領域，例如再生能源，我們是市場領導者，而這些是我們上次不積極的專案融資去年，現在我們的情況類似，而且是一個醫療保健領域，那裡有很多整合。

Got it. And my second question is a follow-up to Ken's question about capital. I think what struck me on slide 11 is I'm not sure how different the forward rate versus flat rate scenario are interpreted, as declined by that much how much time versus rates, although granted you only have 25 basis points difference in terms of the belly of the curve here is really what's going to heal the AOCI.

知道了。我的第二個問題是肯關於資本問題的後續問題。我認為投影片11 中令我印象深刻的是，我不確定遠期利率與統一利率情境的解釋有何不同，因為時間與利率相比下降了多少，儘管假設您在利率方面只有25 個基點的差異這裡的曲線腹部確實能夠治癒 AOCI。

And obviously the stress test is a was a bit of a sort of a negative surprise. As Clarke said, you guys have always been a premier grower in commercial and if macro comes back, you would think that Key is in a position to outperform peers.

顯然，壓力測試有點令人意外。正如克拉克所說，你們一直是商業領域的主要種植者，如果宏觀經濟回歸，你們會認為 Key 能夠超越同行。

So it's about and I guess, how much is this adjusted AOCI impacting if at all your growth plan, it seems to be impacting your multiple and how investors think about you, but perhaps, sort of square that for your investor base for us in terms of how your RMs are going to market versus this the sort of the difference between adjusted and reported.

所以，我猜，調整後的AOCI 對您的成長計畫有多大影響，如果它似乎影響了您的本益比以及投資者對您的看法，但也許，從我們的角度來看，這對您的投資者基礎來說是平方的你的客戶經理將如何推向市場與調整後和報告之間的差異。

And Clark, just quick confirmation, should we assume a flat balance sheet from the [$170.6 billion] to through the end of the year? Thank you.

克拉克，請快速確認一下，我們是否應該假設資產負債表從 [1,706 億美元] 到年底都是持平的？謝謝。

I'll start with the first part of that. The our AOCI position has no impact at all on our RMs out competing in the marketplace. That's just not a variable for them at all. And to your point under the two different rate scenarios we talked about the difference is only $200 million. So it is a function of time, but it doesn't impact how we run the business day-in and day-out.

我將從第一部分開始。我們的 AOCI 地位對我們的客戶經理在市場上的競爭沒有任何影響。這對他們來說根本不是一個變數。就您而言，在我們討論的兩種不同利率情境下，差異僅為 2 億美元。所以它是時間的函數，但它不會影響我們日復一日的業務運作方式。

Yeah. And I would just add to that, right, we do have consumer loans that continue to come down, and that gives us both liquidity and capital to redeploy into commercial there. So to Chris's point, right, that's not something we're viewing as a limiter in the field as far as the balance sheet through the rest of the year, I think going to relatively flat is a good place to start. As I said to you in response to your optimization question, that could move around a little bit, but I wouldn't expect it to be meaningfully large moves on earning assets.

是的。我想補充一點，我們的消費貸款確實在持續下降，這為我們提供了流動性和資本，可以重新部署到商業領域。因此，就克里斯的觀點而言，就今年剩餘時間的資產負債表而言，這並不是我們所認為的限制因素，我認為相對持平是一個很好的起點。正如我在回答您的優化問題時對您所說的那樣，這可能會發生一些變化，但我不認為它會對盈利資產產生有意義的大幅變化。

So just to confirm, it feels like, obviously the go to market strategy you very firm, Chris, if that's not impacted in terms of managing the balance sheet for these wins, should we expect any RWA mitigation or credit risk transfers? Or do you feel like that's very much a 2023 story at this point?

因此，為了確認一下，克里斯，顯然你非常堅定的市場策略，如果在管理這些勝利的資產負債表方面沒有受到影響，我們是否應該期待任何 RWA 緩解或信用風險轉移？或者你覺得這很大程度上是 2023 年的故事嗎？

Yeah. I mean, and I appreciate your consistency on that particular item, Erika. Look, it's something we spend a lot of time looking at and understanding, but which I think a lot of us did we obviously had some peers do some things by the way in places where we had already made move.

是的。我的意思是，我很欣賞你在那個特定項目上的一貫性，艾莉卡。看，這是我們花了很多時間觀察和理解的事情，但我認為我們很多人都這樣做了，我們顯然讓一些同行在我們已經採取行動的地方做了一些事情。

So auto in particular, where we had exited back in '21. There are some opportunities for us to do that. But frankly, we don't see a huge value in getting that additional CET1 at the moment. If something were to change, we know how to execute the transaction like that.

特別是汽車產業，我們早在 21 年就退出了。我們有一些機會可以做到這一點。但坦白說，我們目前認為獲得額外的 CET1 並沒有巨大的價值。如果發生變化，我們知道如何執行交易。

We have a couple of portfolios that are likely prime candidates for that. But it's not clear to me at this moment that's not a lever that we need to pull to drive improved capital.

我們有幾個投資組合可能是這方面的主要候選人。但目前我還不清楚這是否是我們需要用來推動資本改善的槓桿。

Obviously the better you think your portfolio is the more expensive the transaction as.

顯然，你認為你的投資組合越好，交易的成本就越高。

Got it. Thank you so much.

知道了。太感謝了。

Sure. Thanks.

當然。謝謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC.

傑拉德·卡西迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi Chris. Hi Clark.

嗨克里斯。嗨克拉克。

Hey Gerard.

嘿傑拉德。

Chris, I know this is not really quantifiable, but obviously you've been at this for quite some time, but I took interest in your comments about your pipelines and how strong they are. Can you give us some confidence on those pipelines and those pipelines? How confident are you that these are real that they could pull through as you look at it over the next 12 months?

克里斯，我知道這並不是真正可以量化的，但顯然你已經在這方面工作了一段時間了，但我對你對你的管道及其強度的評論很感興趣。您能給我們一些對這些管道和管道的信心嗎？從您的角度來看，您對未來 12 個月內這些問題的真實性有多大信心？

Well, we as you can imagine, we have a pretty detailed review of our pipelines for just the reason that you mentioned and I look at pipelines, it's a combination of probability time to time times to be. We spent a lot of time looking at Oak will some fall away.

好吧，正如您所想像的，我們對我們的管道進行了非常詳細的審查，正如您提到的那樣，我查看了管道，這是一次又一次概率的組合。我們花了很多時間觀察橡樹是否會有些脫落。

I'm sure they will, will some things appear that will be relatively short dated that will close expeditiously that will happen as well. But we sweat the details on these pipelines where we haven't been as tight -- as on some of the loan pipelines just because those that have a few more variables and people sometimes they those deals get done away from you.

我相信他們會的，一些事情會出現，雖然日期相對較短，但很快就會結束，這也會發生。但我們對這些管道的細節很關注，但我們並沒有那麼嚴格——就像在一些貸款管道上一樣，只是因為那些有更多變數的人，有時這些交易會從你身邊完成。

But with respect to our investment banking pipelines, we're in good stead. Now if we have a huge downturn and all of a sudden the markets change significantly. Obviously, those pipelines can go away, but we feel good about the pipeline.

但就我們的投資銀行管道而言，我們處於有利地位。現在，如果我們經歷了巨大的衰退，市場突然發生了巨大的變化。顯然，這些管道可能會消失，但我們對管道感覺良好。

Very good. And then as a follow-up on the credit on your slide 10, I think you guys mentioned that there seems to be some improvement in the health care area. And in the C&I, I think you said it may have been durable consumer.

非常好。然後，作為幻燈片 10 上的信用的後續行動，我想你們提到醫療保健領域似乎有所改善。在 C&I 中，我想你說過它可能是耐用消費品。

The question on the C&I portfolio. Obviously, you guys have been very strong in capital markets for a number of years. And part of that, I presume you work with your sponsors, the private equity guys and in earning the fees from those folks, they tend to also use your balance sheet.

關於 C&I 投資組合的問題。顯然，你們多年來在資本市場上一直表現強勁。其中一部分，我認為你與你的贊助商、私募股權公司合作，在從這些人那裡賺取費用時，他們往往也會使用你的資產負債表。

Is there any evidence that on the private equity side or the loans to no depository financials that category and I know it includes insurance companies and less riskier borrowers. But is there any evidence that there's any credit concerns in that category of loans?

是否有任何證據表明，在私募股權方面或向無存款金融機構提供的貸款這一類別中，我知道它包括保險公司和風險較低的借款人。但是否有任何證據表明此類貸款有任何信用問題？

No, there's not. And you asked specifically about loans to the private equity community. Obviously, those are in the category of leveraged loans and we are literally in this kind of rate increase. We're underwriting those literally every quarter. Are there are there some issues? Has there been some migration? Absolutely, but we're not concerned about that universe of borrowers.

不，沒有。您特別詢問了向私募股權界提供的貸款。顯然，這些屬於槓桿貸款類別，而我們確實處於這種升息之中。我們幾乎每季都會承保這些費用。是不是有一些問題？有沒有發生過一些遷移？當然可以，但我們並不關心借款人的數量。

And Gerard that portfolio that would drive kind of that financials concentration. We've been in that 20-ish years. And it may be there's one loss in that timeframe like literally one credit it's super clean great returns. And it is actually the portfolio that we entered into that forward-flow agreement with Blackstone, and that was entirely to manage the credit risk concentration, not for any concerns about the quality of that portfolio.

傑拉德的投資組合將推動金融業的集中化。我們已經度過了20多年。在這個時間範圍內可能會出現一筆損失，就像字面上的一筆信用一樣，它是超級乾淨的巨大回報。實際上，我們與 Blackstone 簽訂的遠期流動協議就是這個投資組合，這完全是為了管理信用風險集中度，而不是出於對該投資組合品質的任何擔憂。

Got it. And Clark, well, I have you just a quick technical question on that slide 20, where you gave us the '25 refinancing some dollar amounts and the coupon on the what you're receiving. What's the increase for example, the [1.80%] on a weighted average rate received, if that was to convert today, what would it convert to same thing with the fixed rate loans?

知道了。克拉克，好吧，我在第 20 張投影片上向您提出了一個簡短的技術問題，您在投影片 20 中向我們提供了 25 年再融資的一些美元金額以及您收到的優惠券。例如，所收到的加權平均利率[1.80%]的增幅是多少，如果今天進行轉換，它會轉換成與固定利率貸款相同的東西嗎？

Yeah. So today, we are putting forward starters on in 2025 for the purpose of getting a little bit liability sensitive going forward. And we're putting those on kind of in the 4% range. So obviously, that depends on how forward-starting and how long they are, but that compares to the [1.80% quite favorably obviously. And even the 2.78% that sits out there '26], so definite benefit there.

是的。因此，今天，我們提出在 2025 年啟動，目的是為了讓未來對責任更加敏感。我們將這些放在 4% 的範圍內。顯然，這取決於它們的前瞻性和持續時間，但這與 [1.80% 相比顯然相當有利。即使是 26] 中的 2.78%，也確實有好處。

On the fixed rate consumer loans at [4.15%], those are probably well one the student loan market just is it there for a variety of reasons of rates and rates in the sort of given overhang and the forgiveness in the holiday from the government.

就固定利率消費貸款而言，這些貸款的利率為[4.15%]，這可能是學生貸款市場的一個原因，因為各種原因導致利率和利率懸而未決，以及政府在假期期間的寬恕。

But if you were going to put on kind of that, the jumbo mortgage market, that's probably in the [6.5% to 7%] range, but that is an incredibly vibrant at the moment either. But those would be the kind of comparison points.

但如果你要考慮巨額抵押貸款市場，那可能在 [6.5% 至 7%] 範圍內，但目前這也是一個令人難以置信的充滿活力的市場。但這些就是比較點。

And then on your, yeah, [if you did C&1 you'd be at 7. So that would be the way we probably think about that replacement rate. And then on the securities that 2.74% today, it's coming on kind of 5.5 to 5.75-ish range].

然後，是的，[如果你做了 C&1，你就會排在 7。 所以這就是我們考慮替代率的方式。然後就今天 2.74% 的證券而言，它的範圍約為 5.5 至 5.75]。

Very, very good. Thank you, Clark.

非常非常好。謝謝你，克拉克。

John Pancari, Evercore.

約翰·潘卡里，Evercore。

Morning.

早晨。

Morning, John.

早安，約翰。

As you're actually looking at the on the impact of the swap and treasury maturities and the benefit that NII and heavy focus on, the 4Q exit rate of demand and what it means. And clearly, that has a pretty positive impact on 2025.

當您實際關注互換和國債到期日的影響以及 NII 和重點關注的收益時，第四季度的需求退出率及其含義。顯然，這對 2025 年產生了非常積極的影響。

And I believe from a revenue perspective, you could be looking at double digit revenue growth and mid-teens or so on NII next year in terms of growth, just given that dynamic. What type of how should we think about how much of that benefit really fall to the bottom line operating leverage for next year? Looks like, it could be anywhere in the ballpark of 800 basis points to 900 basis points positive operating leverage based on how consensus is thinking about it, if you're looking at a 2% expense growth rate.

我相信，從收入的角度來看，考慮到這種動態，明年的 NII 成長可能會達到兩位數的收入成長和十幾歲左右的成長。我們該如何考慮有多少收益真正落入明年的底線營運槓桿？看起來，如果你考慮的是 2% 的費用成長率，那麼根據共識的看法，正營運槓桿可能在 800 個基點到 900 個基點之間。

So is it that wide of positive operating leverage that you're allowed to materialize and allow this to fall the bottom line or you think that we could be looking at something less than that.

那麼，是否允許您實現如此廣泛的積極營運槓桿，並允許其落入底線，或者您認為我們可能會考慮比這更少的東西。

Hey John, it's Chris. We -- I don't disagree with your assumptions, but obviously, we're not yet coming out with sort of what are our view is of 2025.

嘿約翰，我是克里斯。我們——我不同意你的假設，但顯然，我們還沒有得出我們對 ​​2025 年的看法。

Okay. All right. Thanks. And then separately on the deposit cost side, I know you indicated that you expect some incremental pressure on deposit costs may increase this quarter, but a little bit less than first quarter and you started to CDS actions on that front.

好的。好的。謝謝。然後，在存款成本方面，我知道您表示，您預計本季存款成本的增量壓力可能會增加，但略低於第一季度，並且您開始在這方面採取 CDS 行動。

Can you maybe just help us think about the incremental upside that you think is likely under maybe a forward curve assumption when you look at deposit costs from here.

當您從這裡查看存款成本時，您能否幫助我們考慮一下您認為在遠期曲線假設下可能出現的增量上漲空間。

When you say upside, just so I understand you're talking about increase in rates or beta?

當你說上行時，我明白你在談論利率或貝塔值的增加？

Increasing rates, yeah sorry.

漲價了，抱歉。

Yeah. Look, so we guided to kind of mid-50s, if there were no cuts, one cut will have a maybe minor impact on that. If that cuts in December as you know, there's just not a lot of time to run to implement that. And the reality is, I guess, technically, if that kind of occurs the beta cycle sort of over. So the question is your beta on that first cut, positive or negative? I think it would be in December. Again, not a lot impact.

是的。看，所以我們指導到 50 年代中期，如果沒有削減，一次削減可能會對此產生輕微影響。如您所知，如果在 12 月削減，那麼就沒有太多時間來實施該計劃。我想，從技術上講，現實情況是，如果這種情況發生，測試週期就結束了。那麼問題是你的第一次削減的貝塔值是正還是負？我想那會是十二月。再說一遍，影響不大。

If we do get a cut in September as well as I said, I think on you're going to have a little bit of drift just by nature of the stickiness of the consumer book, but we'd think we have kind of a plus or minus 20 beta coming down.

如果我們確實像我說的那樣在 9 月份進行削減，我認為由於消費者書籍的粘性，您將會有一點漂移，但我們認為我們有一定的優勢或-20 beta 下降。

What that does on the overall cost, again, you get kind of into the technical definition of data cycles ending. But I think you'd see in a September cut rate start to really flatten through the back half of the year, whereas with one cut in December, they may still be up a bit.

這對整體成本的影響再次，您可以了解資料週期結束的技術定義。但我認為，您會看到 9 月的降息在今年下半年開始真正趨於平緩，而 12 月降息一次後，利率可能仍會上漲一點。

Got it. Okay, great. Thanks, Clark.

知道了。好的，太好了。謝謝，克拉克。

Yeah.

是的。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

馬特‧奧康納，德意志銀行。

Good morning. Just to bring it all together on the investment banking fees, the strong kind of out of pipeline, how do you think about the back half of the year? I think you talked about $300 million to $350 million of revenues maybe last month. So how you're still you still feel comfortable about that range?

早安.就投資銀行費用而言，您對下半年的情況有何看法？我想您上個月可能談到了 3 億至 3.5 億美元的收入。那麼您對這個範圍仍然感到滿意嗎？

Yeah, Matt, it's Chris that is the range that we would that we believe we'll do a our revenues will be in the back half of the year. We ended the first half of the year right around $300 million and we've guided all along to [$600 million to $650 million], and that's unchanged.

是的，馬特，克里斯，我們相信我們的收入將在今年下半年達到這個範圍。今年上半年我們的收入約為 3 億美元，我們一直指導為 [6 億至 6.5 億美元]，這一點沒有改變。

Okay. And then sticking with fees, the trust investment management or investment services, obviously nice growth there some boost from the market, but just remind us what else is going on there that might drive growth beyond what the market's giving us here? Thank you.

好的。然後堅持收費、信託投資管理或投資服務，顯然市場的一些推動帶來了不錯的增長，但只是提醒我們還有什麼可能推動增長超出市場給我們帶來的增長？謝謝。

Well, one of the things we talked about in my initial comments is we're clearly really growing our massive flow of business. That was the business where we brought in 30,000 new customers and about $3 billion of total assets to Key. So that's really -- that's a big driver of that line.

嗯，我們在最初的評論中談到的一件事是，我們顯然正在真正成長我們的大量業務流量。透過這項業務，我們為 Key 帶來了 30,000 名新客戶和約 30 億美元的總資產。所以這確實是該系列的一個重要驅動力。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thank you, Matt.

謝謝你，馬特。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

馬南‧戈薩利亞，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning, guys. I just wanted to ask on the ACL ratio it's a larger coming down. You ratcheting up reserves from a dollar perspective to the ACL ratio has been going up fairly steadily. How do you think about those reserve levels and what's the right level here if the macro environment remains stable?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。我只是想問 ACL 比率，下降幅度更大。從美元角度來看，ACL 比率一直在相當穩定地上升。您如何看待這些準備金水準？

So first, of all, thank you for the question of the three things that really drive that are, as you point out loan growth, your view of the macro economy and then idiosyncratic to the actual credits. I could see a scenario depending on how this plays out, where we evaluate, what the total reserve is.

首先，感謝您提出真正推動這三件事的問題，正如您指出的那樣，這三件事是貸款成長、您對宏觀經濟的看法以及對實際信貸的特殊看法。我可以看到一個場景，取決於情況如何進行、我們在哪裡評估、總儲備是多少。

But I think it's premature right now only because it's still unclear to us exactly what path the economy is going to take. But as we get more clarity, we'll continue to evaluate it.

但我認為現在還為時過早，因為我們仍然不清楚經濟到底要走什麼路。但隨著情況變得更加清晰，我們將繼續對其進行評估。

So I guess what you're saying is until there's uncertainty, probably keep the reserves at these levels. And then when you get a little bit more certainty, you can start to bring that down and right size that relative to your loan growth, is that as fair?

所以我想你的意思是，在出現不確定性之前，可能會將儲備保持在這些水平。然後，當您獲得更多確定性時，您可以開始將其相對於貸款成長的規模降低到適當的水平，這公平嗎？

Right. We'd constantly be looking at it adjusting it based on the three metrics that I just shared with you. One our view of the macro economy. Secondly, on the size of the book, which obviously is going down in this instance, and also just the idiosyncratic. What did things like migration and what we have in terms of non-performers and so forth.

正確的。我們會不斷地關注它，並根據我剛剛與您分享的三個指標進行調整。一是我們對宏觀經濟的看法。其次，關於書的大小，在這種情況下，書的大小顯然正在下降，而且也很特殊。諸如移民之類的事情發生了什麼，以及我們在表現不佳者方面有何表現等等。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Steve Alexopoulos, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫‧阿萊克索普洛斯，摩根大通。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Hey Steve.

嘿史蒂夫。

Hey Steve.

嘿史蒂夫。

I want to start that Clark. Thank you for all the detailed disclosures on NII, and we've obviously beat that horse on this call quite a bit. But just assuming that we get two cuts this year, just a September and December. What's your bias in terms of where you'll likely be in terms of the NII range for the year.

我想開始那個克拉克。感謝您對 NII 的所有詳細披露，我們顯然在這次電話會議上擊敗了那匹馬。但假設今年我們有兩次削減，一次是九月，一次是十二月。您對今年的 NII 範圍可能處於什麼位置有什麼偏見？

Look I think with two cuts, we're going to be closer to the bottom end of our range. But I would tell you just from an overall health of the business, I'd take the second cut because I think it drives more loan demand. I think a buys more from capital markets activity. I think it gets people more engaged in economic investments. So I think it's a trade we certainly would make going into 2025 versus, I guess, maximizing what's in the fourth quarter.

看，我認為透過兩次削減，我們將更接近我們範圍的底端。但我會告訴你，僅從業務的整體健康狀況來看，我會採取第二次削減，因為我認為這會推動更多的貸款需求。我認為 a 從資本市場活動中購買更多。我認為這會讓人們更參與經濟投資。因此，我認為這是我們在 2025 年肯定會進行的交易，而不是最大化第四季度的交易。

Got it. Okay. Thanks. And for my follow-up question, I wanted to go back and ask John's question a little bit different on expenses. I know you're not going to give 2025 outlook at this point, but if you do achieve the expense outlook this year.

知道了。好的。謝謝。對於我的後續問題，我想回去問約翰關於費用的問題，但問題有點不同。我知道您目前不會給出 2025 年的展望，但如果您今年確實實現了支出展望。

I think that's basically three years in a row where you're having and real expense growth. And I guess we're curious of your lots of ways to achieve that. One of them is just deferring expenses and projects until the environment is better.

我認為這基本上是連續三年實際支出成長。我想我們對你們實現這一目標的多種方法感到好奇。其中之一就是推遲開支和項目，直到環境好轉為止。

It is that the can you just help us understand that? Is there a catch-up and expensive coming because you've been deferring and you have an expense growth for multiple years, or could the next year as the revenue environment gets better? Just looked like a more normal expense year for the company?

您能幫助我們理解這一點嗎？是否會出現追趕和昂貴的情況，因為您一直在推遲並且多年來費用增長，或者隨著收入環境變得更好，明年可能會出現這種情況嗎？對公司來說，這只是一個更正常的支出年度？

So, Steve, the answer is as we look forward, it will be a more normal expense year for the company as we continue to come out of the position that we're in, we have been investing, though, and the reason we've been able to invest as we took $400 million of expenses out last year, just for the purposes of being able to invest in people and in technology and in the businesses that we're trying to grow, like our private client business our payments business, our investment banking business.

所以，史蒂夫，答案是，正如我們所期望的那樣，對於公司來說，這將是一個更加正常的支出年度，因為我們將繼續擺脫目前的處境，但我們一直在投資，以及我們的原因。

So expenses will go up in 2025, as you see the pull through of the earnings that we're talking about. But we have not starve the business. We've continued to invest in our migration to the cloud. We've continued to spend $800 million a year in our tech area.

因此，當你看到我們正在談論的收益的成長時，2025 年的支出將會增加。但我們並沒有讓業務挨餓。我們繼續投資向雲端遷移。我們繼續每年在科技領域花費 8 億美元。

So but in order to be able to continue to invest in the business. I think you can imagine that expenses will go up in 2025, but it's not because of deferred expenses it's just because our business is continues to grow.

所以而是為了能夠繼續投資生意。我想你可以想像到 2025 年費用將會增加，但這並不是因為遞延費用，而是因為我們的業務持續成長。

Just to put it reiterate Chris's point there, it just investment will be stable to up. It's just the lack of a clear takeout to fund that, that will be the difference.

只是重申克里斯的觀點，投資將會穩定上升。只是缺乏明確的外賣來為其提供資金，這就是區別。

Got it. Okay. That's great color. Thanks a lot.

知道了。好的。那顏色真棒。多謝。

Thanks, Andy.

謝謝，安迪。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo.

麥克梅奧，富國銀行。

Hi, I think I'm missing something very basic and that is that you have the same no change to the fixed asset repricing. You have a less favorable loan growth guidance yet you still have the same NII guidance. So what am I missing and my logic?

你好，我想我遺漏了一些非常基本的東西，那就是固定資產重新定價同樣沒有變化。您的貸款成長指引不太有利，但 NII 指引仍然相同。那麼我錯過了什麼以及我的邏輯嗎？

Yeah. Look, I mean, it's part of it is there is a range, Mike. So where you land in the range is part of that. A lot of that, as we've talked about in the call, a lot of the increase is going to be structural to the fixed asset repricing.

是的。聽著，我的意思是，它的一部分是有一個範圍，麥克。所以你落在範圍內的位置就是其中的一部分。正如我們在電話會議中所討論的，其中很大一部分成長將是固定資產重新定價的結構性變化。

So the plus or minus pieces on that, I think is largely going to be whether or not we have loan growth, but a little bit of that muted loan growth is offset by a little bit stronger deposit performance. So we hit both of those balance sheet components, one of the negative, one of the positive, and we think those are somewhat offsetting. So the amount of loan growth we see in the second half would be kind of the plus or minus on average.

因此，我認為，這方面的正負主要取決於我們是否有貸款成長，但貸款成長放緩的一小部分被存款表現的強勁所抵消。因此，我們觸及了資產負債表的兩個組成部分，一個是負面的，一個是正面的，我們認為這些在某種程度上是相互抵消的。因此，我們在下半年看到的貸款成長量平均會增加或減少。

You said middle market pipelines are up 50% quarter over quarter. Is that correct? And how much is middle market of your total commercial?

您說中間市場管道季度環比增長了 50%。那是對的嗎？你們的商業總量中間市場有多少？

The answer is the 50% quarter-over-quarter is correct. And middle market would be of total commercial probably 40%.

答案是 50% 的季度環比是正確的。中間市場大概佔商業總量的40%。

So even though you have such strong backlogs and seems like you have a certain degree of conviction, you still thought you should guide loan growth lower, is that correct?

因此，儘管你們的積壓如此之多，而且似乎有一定程度的信念，但你們仍然認為應該引導貸款增速下降，對嗎？

We did it. One of the things, one of the reasons we felt that way, Mike, is that our exit rate was lower than our average loan rate, which was part of our thinking there.

我們做到了。麥克，我們有這種感覺的原因之一是，我們的退出率低於平均貸款利率，這是我們想法的一部分。

And then just a separate topic, Chris, in terms of the merger environment, I feel like the topic side down here recently, but you said that you'd be willing and able to pursue another First Niagara sort of deal. Is that still the case? No matter what circumstances do you think it would become more likely would be more likely after the election. What do you think the tone is in DC and what's your appetite?

然後是一個單獨的話題，克里斯，就合併環境而言，我覺得最近這個話題就在這裡，但你說你願意並且能夠尋求另一筆 First Niagara 類型的交易。現在還是這樣嗎？無論什麼情況，你認為大選後這種可能性會變得更大。你認為 DC 的基調是什麼？

Sure. So as it relates to a depository, I don't see anything happening in the near future. I think the obstacles to completing a deal is first of all, can you get it approved? Secondly, if you can't get it approved, how long does it take and what's left of the business after you get it approved? As I mentioned earlier, I think there's some real questions on everyone seems to be coalescing around the soft landing.

當然。因此，就存託機構而言，我認為在不久的將來不會發生任何事情。我認為完成交易的障礙首先是你能獲得批准嗎？其次，如果不能獲批，需要多長時間，核准後業務還剩下什麼？正如我之前提到的，我認為每個人似乎都圍繞著軟著陸提出了一些真正的問題。

I hope people are right. I'm not sure that that's a fait accompli. And so I think as you're thinking about buying a business, you're buying their book and of course, unrealized losses become realized losses. So for all those reasons, I don't see it happening in the near future.

我希望人們是對的。我不確定這是否是既成事實。因此，我認為當你考慮購買一家企業時，你就是在購買他們的帳簿，當然，未實現的損失會變成已實現的損失。因此，出於所有這些原因，我認為在不久的將來不會發生這種情況。

What I had mentioned in the -- on the call that you would sponsor. As I said, with respect to First Niagara, we were able to keep the clients and keep the people and take 42% of the costs out of the business. And I think that's a pretty good business model in any industry.

我在您將贊助的電話會議中提到的內容。正如我所說，就 First Niagara 而言，我們能夠留住客戶和員工，並減少 42% 的業務成本。我認為這在任何行業都是一個非常好的商業模式。

So I think there will be consolidation. What I've shared with our team is I don't think there's going to be any consolidation until there's a lot. So I think that -- I think there will be consolidation where you will see us spending time is on these entrepreneurial businesses.

所以我認為將會出現整合。我與我們的團隊分享的是，我認為在出現很多之前不會進行任何整合。所以我認為——我認為將會出現整合，你會看到我們花時間在這些創業企業上。

I'm really proud of our ability to buy entrepreneurial niche businesses and integrate them into our business. That's really hard for a big company to do. And I think we've done it pretty well. And that would be things that we'd be focused on in the near and medium term.

我對我們購買創業型利基企業並將其整合到我們業務中的能力感到非常自豪。這對大公司來說確實很難做到。我認為我們做得很好。這將是我們在近期和中期重點關注的事情。

And then last question, investment banking I know your mix is different. You're more loan syndications, you have mergers, but relative to the big banks, I know it's not apples to apples completely, but it just doesn't really compares very favorably to them. On the other hand, you said you have record backlogs in investment banking. So what areas investment banking are you seeing the record backlogs.

最後一個問題，投資銀行業務，我知道你們的組合是不同的。你有更多的貸款銀團，你有合併，但相對於大銀行，我知道這不是完全同類，但它與它們相比並不是非常有利。另一方面，您說您的投資銀行業務積壓創紀錄。那麼，您在哪些投資銀行領域看到了創紀錄的積壓。

Sure. So the divergence I'll start with the divergence. We are focused because on certain industries, I think a lot of people had a pretty good quarter with respect to equities we did not particularly just because of one that's not a huge business for us.

當然。所以我將從分歧開始。我們之所以關注某些行業，是因為我認為很多人在股票方面都度過了相當不錯的季度，但我們並沒有特別關注，因為這對我們來說並不是一項巨大的業務。

And secondly, equities team tend to be issued in certain verticals at certain times. Where we have a strong backlog, and it's the most important place for us given our middle market franchise, like is in M&A because our M&A business pulls through a lot of things like loans like hedging. So that's where our pipelines are strong.

其次，股票團隊往往會在特定時間在特定垂直領域發行。我們有大量的積壓，考慮到我們的中間市場特許經營權，這對我們來說是最重要的地方，就像在併購領域一樣，因為我們的併購業務經歷了很多事情，例如對沖等貸款。這就是我們管道的優勢。

The other area we have a commercial mortgage business. And as rates come down, I think you're going to see that business -- as rates come down and stabilize. And I think you need both, candidly for all the reasons I talked about earlier, I think you're going to see that really a pickup in terms of what comes out of the pipe in the second half of the year.

另一個領域我們有商業抵押貸款業務。隨著利率下降，我認為你會看到這項業務——隨著利率下降並穩定下來。我認為你們兩者都需要，坦白說，出於我之前談到的所有原因，我認為你們會看到下半年的情況確實有所好轉。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thank you. Appreciate your questions.

謝謝。感謝您的提問。

Peter Winter, DA Davidson.

彼得溫特，DA 戴維森。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning, Peter.

早安，彼得。

Morning, that consumer loan growth was under quite a bit of pressure in the second quarter. I'm just wondering if you could talk about the outlook on the consumer side of the lending business?

早間，第二季消費貸款成長面臨較大壓力。我只是想知道您能否談談貸款業務消費者方面的前景？

Sure. Our consumer lending, we as Peter, we don't have a huge credit card book. It's really mortgage home equity, personal loans, student loans, not an enormous amount of volume in the mortgage market, the jumbo mortgage market or nonconforming market or the student loan market, which is generally what has been on balance sheet for us.

當然。我們的消費貸款，我們身為彼得，我們沒有大量的信用卡帳簿。這實際上是抵押貸款房屋淨值、個人貸款、學生貸款，而不是抵押貸款市場、巨額抵押貸款市場或不合格市場或學生貸款市場的巨大數量，這通常是我們資產負債表上的內容。

We continue to see more clients where we can, particularly in held for sale mortgages. But I would suspect as we go forward, you will see us do and rates come down and those businesses get a little stronger. You'll see us support those clients very actively, but probably do a little bit more of that off balance sheet.

我們繼續盡可能地接觸更多客戶，特別是持有待售抵押貸款的客戶。但我懷疑，隨著我們前進，你會看到我們這樣做，利率下降，這些業務變得更強大。您會看到我們非常積極地支持這些客戶，但可能會在資產負債表外做更多的事情。

So we'll view that a little bit more as a fee income generators, as we service those clients. We will always have some room on the balance sheet to accommodate good clients as it relates to nonconforming structures as an example. But that will be probably less so than it's been the last few years.

因此，當我們為這些客戶提供服務時，我們會將其視為費用收入的產生者。我們的資產負債表上總是會留有一些空間來容納優質客戶，因為它與不合格結構有關。但這可能會比過去幾年有所減少。

Would you expect a just given the low yields, a similar type of decline going forward on the consumer side?

鑑於收益率較低，您是否預期消費者方面未來也會出現類似的下降？

In terms of what we see in this year.

就我們今年看到的情況而言。

Just relative to the second quarter?

只是相對於第二季嗎？

Yeah. I mean, I'd have to go back and look for sure, but you have student loans and mortgages, right there just have structural paydowns every month. So we'll see that book continue to come down at a sort of normalized rate.

是的。我的意思是，我必須回去確定一下，但是你有學生貸款和抵押貸款，每個月只有結構性還款。所以我們會看到這本書繼續以某種標準化的速度下降。

I think it will accelerate as rates come down. But they have to come down quite a bit, frankly, for a lot of refi. So I think what you're seeing is probably illustrative what you'd expect going forward. Okay, so differently I don't know of any unique thing that happened in the second quarter that would have driven consumer loan growth down more than expected.

我認為隨著利率的下降，它會加速。但坦白說，對於大量的再融資，它們必須大幅下降。所以我認為你所看到的可能說明了你對未來的期望。好吧，所以不同的是，我不知道第二季度發生的任何獨特事件會導致消費貸款成長下降超過預期。

Okay. And then just on a different question. Just on buybacks, I know there are no plans to buy back stock this year. But Chris, I'm just wondering what are some of the parameters you're looking at to get back into the market to buy back stock?

好的。然後就一個不同的問題。就回購而言，我知道今年沒有回購股票的計畫。但克里斯，我只是想知道你要考慮哪些參數才能重返市場回購股票？

Well, the first parameter would be to really have a firm understanding of where the Basel III endgame is going to be because until we know what the phase-in period is and what capital is going to be required on that's just I think that's a very important piece of the equation.

嗯，第一個參數是真正對巴塞爾協議 III 的最終階段有一個牢固的了解，因為在我們知道分階段階段是什麼以及需要什麼資本之前，我認為這是一個非常重要的問題。重要組成部分。

And for us, obviously, we had mentioned we've been under earning and as our balance sheet deals, that will give us an opportunity at the appropriate time to revisit that but we've been very clear. We're not going to engage in any buybacks this year for sure, because we, in fact have a plan approved by the Board. But going forward, obviously, like everybody will be taking a look at it.

對我們來說，顯然，我們已經提到我們的利潤一直低於預期，並且隨著我們的資產負債表交易，這將使我們有機會在適當的時候重新審視這一點，但我們已經非常明確了。今年我們肯定不會進行任何回購，因為事實上我們有一個董事會批准的計劃。但顯然，展望未來，每個人都會注意它。

And then just one more last clarification question, Clark on Steve's question about the NII range. You mentioned with two rate cuts closer to the bottom end of the range, does that mean closer to 2% down?

然後是最後一個澄清問題，Clark 回答 Steve 關於 NII 範圍的問題。您提到兩次降息都接近該區間的下限，這是否意味著降息接近 2%？

It closer to 5%, so would be the worse than the --

它接近 5%，所以會比——

Upper end of the downlink?

下行鏈路的上端？

Yeah, we can wrestle on those semantics. But yes, closer to the 5% down.

是的，我們可以在這些語義上進行鬥爭。但是，是的，接近 5% 的下降。

Got it. Thanks. Thanks for taking the questions.

知道了。謝謝。感謝您提出問題。

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

And I'll now turn the conference back to Chris Gorman for closing remarks.

現在我將把會議轉回克里斯·戈爾曼致閉幕詞。

Again, thank you for participating in our call today. If you have any follow-up questions, you can direct them to Brian at our Investor Relations team. This concludes our remarks. Thank you.

再次感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，可以直接聯絡我們投資者關係團隊的 Brian。我們的發言到此結束。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference service. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與並使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連線。