KeyCorp (KEY) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(technical difficulty) 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Gorman, KeyCorp's Chairman and CEO. Please go ahead.

（技術難度）2023年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議轉交給 KeyCorp 董事長兼執行長 Chris Gorman。請繼續。

Well, thank you for joining us for KeyCorp's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Clark Khayat, our Chief Financial Officer; and our Chief Risk Officer, Darrin Benhart, who succeeded Mark Midkiff at the beginning of this year.

好的，感謝您參加 KeyCorp 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的財務長 Clark Khayat；我們的首席風險長 Darrin Benhart 在今年年初接替了馬克米德基夫 (Mark Midkiff)。

On Slide 2, you will find our statement on forward-looking disclosures and certain financial measures, including non-GAAP measures. These statements cover our presentation materials and comments as well as the question-and-answer segment of our call.

在投影片 2 上，您將找到我們關於前瞻性揭露和某些財務指標（包括非公認會計原則指標）的聲明。這些聲明涵蓋了我們的簡報資料和評論以及我們電話會議的問答部分。

I am now moving to Slide 3. This morning, we reported earnings of $30 million or $0.03 per share. Our results included $209 million of after-tax expenses or $0.22 per share, from 3 items that Clark will describe in more detail later. For the year, we reported EPS of $0.88, including $0.27 impact from similar types of expenses.

我現在轉到幻燈片 3。今天早上，我們報告盈利 3000 萬美元，即每股收益 0.03 美元。我們的業績包括 2.09 億美元的稅後費用或每股 0.22 美元，來自克拉克稍後將更詳細描述的 3 個項目。今年，我們報告每股收益為 0.88 美元，其中包括類似類型費用的 0.27 美元影響。

Fourth quarter closes out a challenging year for the industry and for Key. While our business fundamentals remain solid throughout the year, we acknowledge that our balance sheet coming into the year was not well positioned for the rapid rise in interest rates that transpired.

第四季對產業和 Key 來說都是充滿挑戰的一年。雖然我們的業務基本面全年保持穩健，但我們承認，今年的資產負債表並沒有很好地應對利率的快速上升。

We took a number of necessary steps as we move through the year to enhance our balance sheet liquidity capital position, in preparation for potential changes in capital rules, positioning ourselves to be a simpler, smaller, more profitable bank.

在這一年中，我們採取了一系列必要的措施來增強我們的資產負債表流動性資本狀況，為資本規則的潛在變化做好準備，將自己定位為一家更簡單、規模更小、利潤更高的銀行。

These actions also had some near-term financial impacts. As a result, we missed our own expectations and yours. However, as we turn the page to 2024, I think it is really important to step back and recognize that Key accomplished a number of positive things last year. And as a result, I am confident we have laid the groundwork as we move forward.

這些行動也產生了一些短期財務影響。結果，我們辜負了我們自己和您的期望。然而，當我們翻過這一頁到 2024 年時，我認為退後一步並認識到 Key 去年取得了許多積極的事情是非常重要的。因此，我相信我們已經為前進奠定了基礎。

First and most importantly, throughout the year, the tremendous work and dedication of our teammates, allowed us to continue to serve and support our clients through turbulent market conditions, particularly in the first half of the year. I am very thankful and proud of our teammates as they set aside the noise affecting our industry, stepped up and continued to focus on executing on our strategic priorities and steadfastly serving our clients. Our focus on relationships continue to guide our balance sheet optimization efforts.

首先也是最重要的是，在這一年中，我們的團隊成員的巨大工作和奉獻精神使我們能夠在動蕩的市場條件下繼續為客戶提供服務和支持，特別是在今年上半年。我非常感謝我們的團隊成員，也為他們感到自豪，他們拋開了影響我們行業的噪音，挺身而出，繼續專注於執行我們的策略重點，堅定不移地為我們的客戶服務。我們對關係的關注繼續指導我們的資產負債表優化工作。

In 2023, we reduced loans by $7 billion, as we deemphasize credit-only and other nonrelationship business. Despite this meaningful reduction in lending, we grew the number of relationship clients and households we serve across both our consumer and commercial businesses and grew deposits by $3 billion.

2023 年，我們減少了 70 億美元貸款，因為我們不再強調純粹信貸業務和其他非關係業務。儘管貸款大幅減少，但我們在消費者和商業業務中服務的關係客戶和家庭數量有所增加，存款增加了 30 億美元。

In consumer, we grew relationship households by 3%, with about 2/3 of new relationships coming from younger demographics. Relationship deposits grew by 1%. Commercial clients grew 4% and commercial balances grew 5%, as a result of our continued focus on primacy. About 96% of our commercial deposits were from clients that had an operating account with Key as of December.

在消費者方面，我們的關係家庭成長了 3%，其中約 2/3 的新關係來自年輕族群。關係存款成長1%。由於我們繼續專注於首要地位，商業客戶成長了 4%，商業餘額增加了 5%。截至 12 月，我們約有 96% 的商業存款來自在 Key 擁有營運帳戶的客戶。

As a result of our ability to raise relationship deposits, while reducing loans, we were able to meaningfully reduce our reliance on wholesale funding as the year progressed. We also continued to raise significant capital for the benefit of our clients, over $80 billion in 2023, leveraging our unique distribution capabilities. This proven and mature underwrite to distribute model is a key differentiator for us.

由於我們有能力籌集關係存款，同時減少貸款，隨著時間的推移，我們能夠有意義地減少對批發融資的依賴。我們也利用我們獨特的分銷能力，繼續為客戶的利益籌集大量資金，到 2023 年籌集的資金將超過 800 億美元。這種經過驗證且成熟的承保經銷模式是我們的關鍵優勢。

On expenses, we made significant headway in simplifying and streamlining our businesses. We exited certain capital-intensive and nonrelationship businesses, such as vendor finance, as we have previously done with indirect auto.

在費用方面，我們在簡化和精簡業務方面取得了重大進展。我們退出了某些資本密集和非關係型業務，例如供應商融資，就像我們之前對間接汽車業務所做的那樣。

In November, we announced a number of organizational changes, including the reorganization and consolidation of our commercial banking and payments businesses. We also realigned our real estate capital business with those of our institutional bank. By aligning product-based teams to the client-facing businesses they serve, we are reducing overhead and complexity and creating a better client and prospect experience.

11 月，我們宣布了多項組織變革，包括商業銀行和支付業務的重組和整合。我們也重新調整了我們的房地產資本業務與我們機構銀行的業務。透過將基於產品的團隊與他們所服務的面向客戶的業務保持一致，我們正在減少開銷和複雜性，並創造更好的客戶和潛在客戶體驗。

Altogether, these actions we took in '23 impacted 6% of our teammates. Additionally, we continued to rationalize our non-branch nonoperation center real estate footprint, which has declined by 34% over the past 3 years. We do not take these decisions lightly. But the reality is we need to make the difficult decisions today to earn the right to invest in the opportunities of tomorrow.

總的來說，我們在 23 年採取的這些行動影響了 6% 的隊友。此外，我們繼續合理化我們的非分行非營運中心房地產足跡，該足跡在過去 3 年中下降了 34%。我們不會輕易做出這些決定。但現實是，我們今天需要做出艱難的決定，才能獲得投資明天機會的權利。

Last year's actions freed up over $400 million on an annualized basis that we will redeploy to deliver value for our clients and drive future growth. More broadly, these actions, combined with our ongoing disciplined expense management, have enabled us to hold core expenses essentially flat at $4.4 billion annually over the past 2 years, and that is in spite of inflationary headwinds facing our industry.

去年的行動每年釋放了超過 4 億美元的資金，我們將重新部署這些資金，為客戶創造價值並推動未來的成長。更廣泛地說，這些行動與我們持續嚴格的費用管理相結合，使我們能夠在過去兩年中將核心費用基本保持在每年 44 億美元，儘管我們的行業面臨通膨阻力。

On the capital front, our risk-weighted assets decreased by $14 billion from the beginning of the year, exceeding our full year optimization goal of $10 billion. Concurrently, we also increased our common equity Tier 1 numerator through net capital generation. As a result, our CET1 ratio increased by 90 basis points to 10% at year-end, well above our targeted capital range of 9% to 9.5%.

資金方面，風險加權資產較年初減少140億美元，超額完成全年100億美元的最佳化目標。同時，我們也透過淨資本生成增加了普通股一級分子。因此，我們的 CET1 比率在年底增加了 90 個基點至 10%，遠高於我們 9% 至 9.5% 的目標資本範圍。

Our capital metrics, including AOCI, also improved, as lower interest rates and the continued pull to par over time of the unrealized losses in our investment portfolio drove over $1 billion of improvement in our AOCI over the past year. Tangible book value and tangible common equity ratios, both improved meaningfully.

我們的資本指標（包括AOCI）也有所改善，因為較低的利率以及我們投資組合中未實現損失隨著時間的推移持續拉至標準水平，推動我們的AOCI 在過去一年中改善了超過10 億美元。有形帳面價值和有形普通股權益比率均顯著改善。

Overall, our capital position remains strong. We are well positioned relative to our capital priorities and the currently proposed future capital requirements. In fact, we think we're advantaged relative to other Category 4 banks, given our underwrite to distribute model, and the asset and capital-light businesses that we have, including a scaled wealth business with $55 billion of assets under management.

整體而言，我們的資本狀況依然強勁。相對於我們的資本優先事項和目前提出的未來資本要求，我們處於有利地位。事實上，我們認為，鑑於我們的承銷分銷模式以及我們擁有的資產和輕資本業務，包括管理資產達 550 億美元的規模化財富業務，我們相對於其他 4 類銀行具有優勢。

Also, I want to comment on credit quality, which I believe is the most important determinant of return on tangible common equity and shareholder value over time.

另外，我想評論一下信用質量，我認為隨著時間的推移，信用質量是有形普通股回報和股東價值的最重要決定因素。

Credit quality remains a clear strength of Key. Our credit measures reflect the derisking we have done over the past decade and our distinctive underwrite to distribute model. Net charge-offs were 26 basis points in the fourth quarter and 21 basis points for the full year. Our NPAs, which we firmly believe had very low loss content remained well below our historical averages.

信用品質仍然是一個明顯的優勢關鍵。我們的信貸指標反映了我們在過去十年中所做的去風險工作以及我們獨特的承銷分銷模式。第四季淨沖銷額為 26 個基點，全年淨沖銷額為 21 個基點。我們堅信，我們的不良資產損失含量非常低，但仍遠低於我們的歷史平均值。

The quality of our loan portfolio continues to serve us well, with over half of our C&I loans rated as investment grade or the equivalent. Our consumer clients have a weighted average FICO score of approximately 768 at origination.

我們的貸款組合的品質繼續為我們提供良好服務，超過一半的工商業貸款被評為投資級別或同等級別。我們的消費者客戶在初始時的加權平均 FICO 分數約為 768。

As a reminder, we have limited exposure to leveraged lending, office loans and other high-risk categories. 2/3 of our commercial real estate exposure is multifamily, of which, approximately 40% is in affordable housing, which continues to be a significant and unmet need in this country.

提醒一下，我們對槓桿貸款、辦公貸款和其他高風險類別的曝險有限。我們 2/3 的商業房地產是多戶住宅，其中約 40% 是經濟適用房，這仍然是這個國家的一個重要且未被滿足的需求。

As we move to 2024, I want to provide my key takeaways from the guidance that Clark will walk you through in more detail shortly.

隨著我們邁入 2024 年，我想從克拉克很快將向您詳細介紹的指導中提供我的主要收穫。

First, we have a clearly defined net interest income opportunity moving forward, as our short-term swaps and treasuries reprice, particularly in the second half of the year. Importantly, we believe this can be achieved across a range of interest rate scenarios as a result of the significant work the team has done over the past year to improve our balance sheet resiliency.

首先，隨著我們的短期掉期和國債重新定價，特別是在今年下半年，我們未來有一個明確的淨利息收入機會。重要的是，我們相信，由於團隊在過去一年中為提高資產負債表彈性所做的大量工作，我們相信在一系列利率情境下都可以實現這一目標。

We began to see some of that work pay off this quarter, as our net interest income grew slightly relative to the third quarter. Our momentum makes me confident that we saw our net interest margin bottom out in the third quarter of 2023.

我們開始看到一些工作在本季得到回報，因為我們的淨利息收入相對於第三季略有成長。我們的勢頭讓我相信我們的淨利差將在 2023 年第三季觸底。

Secondly, we have leading positions and meaningful growth opportunities across capital markets, payments and wealth management. We have consistently invested through the cycle in these differentiated fee businesses, where we have targeted scale. We continue to see good client engagement and our pipelines remain strong. Any normalization in the capital markets represents an upside opportunity for Key, not only for fees, but from the balance sheet management perspective that I spoke about earlier.

其次，我們在資本市場、支付和財富管理領域擁有領先地位和有意義的成長機會。我們在整個週期中持續投資於這些差異化收費業務，並設定了目標規模。我們繼續看到良好的客戶參與度，並且我們的管道仍然強勁。資本市場的任何正常化對 Key 來說都是一個上行機會，不僅是在費用方面，而且從我之前談到的資產負債表管理的角度來看也是如此。

Thirdly, while the macroeconomic outlook remains highly uncertain, based on our current assumptions, we anticipate we will generate moderate positive operating leverage for the full year 2024.

第三，雖然宏觀經濟前景仍然高度不確定，但根據我們目前的假設，我們預計 2024 年全年將產生適度的正經營槓桿。

Finally, we continue to expect that we will outperform the industry this cycle with respect to credit. Credit quality remains one of our most significant strengths. Over the next several quarters, we continue to expect to operate below our through-the-cycle net charge-off range of 40 to 60 basis points.

最後，我們持續預期本週期我們在信貸方面的表現將優於產業。信用品質仍然是我們最重要的優勢之一。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們繼續預計營運將低於 40 至 60 個基點的整個週期淨沖銷範圍。

In summary, we acknowledge 2023 was a challenging year, difficult, but necessary decisions were made and actions were taken. But at this point, we are nearly finished with that process.

總之，我們承認 2023 年是充滿挑戰的一年，困難重重，但我們做出了必要的決定並採取了行動。但此時，我們幾乎完成了這個過程。

Our balance sheet is now appropriately sized for the environment in which we are operating. We are better positioned for changes in interest rates, up or down. Our demonstrated ability to manage and grow our deposits proves to be a strong foundation. We are now in a position where we can be more opportunistic as we turn the page to 2024.

現在，我們的資產負債表規模已適合我們營運的環境。我們能夠更好地應對利率的變化，無論是上升還是下降。我們所展現的管理和成長存款的能力被證明是一個堅實的基礎。現在，當我們翻過 2024 年的一頁時，我們可以更加投機取巧。

Before I turn it over to Clark, I want to take a moment to acknowledge last week, we announced Vern Patterson's retirement from Key. As Head of IR, Vern has led Key through 112 earnings releases and countless meetings with investors and other stakeholders. I am so grateful, Vern, to have worked alongside you. I have tremendous appreciation, Vern, for the great relationships you have throughout our industry and within our company. So thank you again, Vern.

在我把它交給克拉克之前，我想花點時間承認上週我們宣布弗恩帕特森從基退休。作為 IR 主管，Vern 領導 Key 發布了 112 份財報，並與投資者和其他利益相關者舉行了無數次會議。弗恩，我非常感激能和你一起工作。弗恩，我非常感謝您在整個行業和我們公司內部建立的良好關係。再次感謝你，弗恩。

At the same time, I am pleased to welcome Brian Mauney, as our new Director of Investor Relations. With more than 25 years of experience in our industry, Brian brings a depth and variety of experience and capabilities to the role. While he has big shoes to fill, I'm very pleased that Brian has joined the team.

同時，我很高興歡迎 Brian Mauney 擔任我們新任投資者關係總監。 Brian 在我們的行業擁有超過 25 年的經驗，為這個角色帶來了深度和多樣化的經驗和能力。雖然他有很多職責需要填補，但我很高興布萊恩加入了這個團隊。

With that, I will turn it over to Clark to provide more details on the results for the quarter. Clark?

這樣，我將把它交給克拉克，以提供有關本季業績的更多詳細資訊。克拉克？

Thanks, Chris. I would echo your comments on Vern, and a warm welcome to Brian as well.

謝謝，克里斯。我同意你對弗恩的評論，並對布萊恩表示熱烈歡迎。

I am now on Slide 5. For the fourth quarter, net income from continuing operations was $0.03 per common share, down $0.26 from the prior quarter and down $0.35 from last year.

我現在看到的是幻燈片 5。第四季度，持續經營淨利潤為每股普通股 0.03 美元，比上一季下降 0.26 美元，比去年下降 0.35 美元。

Our results this quarter were impacted by 3 items, totaling $0.22 per share: first, $190 million from an FDIC special assessment; second, $67 million from an efficiency-related expense; and third, $18 million from a pension settlement charge, for a total of $275 million pretax or $209 million after tax. The breakdown of these items can be found in the last page of our slide presentation.

我們本季的業績受到 3 個項目的影響，總計每股 0.22 美元：首先，來自 FDIC 特別評估的 1.9 億美元；其次，6,700 萬美元來自與效率相關的支出；第三，1800萬美元來自退休金結算費用，稅前總額為2.75億美元，稅後總額為2.09億美元。這些項目的詳細資訊可以在我們幻燈片演示的最後一頁找到。

Our fourth quarter results were generally consistent with the guidance we provided last month. As expected, we saw stability in the net interest income line this quarter, and our net interest margin increased by 6 basis points relative to the third quarter, as we began to see some early benefits from our swap and treasury portfolios.

我們第四季的業績總體上與我們上個月提供的指導一致。如預期的那樣，本季淨利息收入線保持穩定，淨利差較第三季增加了 6 個基點，因為我們開始看到掉期和國債投資組合的一些早期收益。

Fees declined 5% sequentially on the better end of the range we provided last month. Expense growth was primarily attributable to the 3 items I mentioned. Without these items, expenses would have been relatively stable, compared to the third quarter. Net charge-offs as a percent of loans remained low at 26 basis points, and we added $26 million to our allowance for credit losses to reflect some modest migration in the portfolio, primarily in real estate and the still uncertain macro outlook.

與我們上個月提供的範圍的較高端相比，費用環比下降了 5%。費用增長主要歸因於我提到的三項。如果沒有這些項目，與第三季相比，支出將相對穩定。淨沖銷佔貸款的百分比仍然較低，為26 個基點，我們在信貸損失準備金中增加了2600 萬美元，以反映投資組合中的一些溫和遷移，主要是在房地產領域以及仍然不確定的宏觀前景。

Additionally, as Chris highlighted in his remarks, our results reflect our focus on primacy and building relationships, our improved capital position and our strong risk discipline.

此外，正如克里斯在演講中所強調的那樣，我們的業績反映了我們對首要地位和建立關係的關注、我們改善的資本狀況以及我們嚴格的風險紀律。

Turning to Slide 6. Average loans for the quarter were $114 billion, down 3% from both the year-ago period and prior quarter. The decline in average loans was primarily driven by a reduction in C&I balances, which were down 4% from the prior quarter. The reduction reflects our planned balance sheet optimization efforts, which prioritize full relationships and deemphasize credit only and nonrelationship business.

轉向投影片 6。該季度的平均貸款為 1,140 億美元，比去年同期和上一季下降 3%。平均貸款下降主要是由於 C&I 餘額減少所致，較上季下降 4%。這一減少反映了我們計劃的資產負債表優化工作，該工作優先考慮全面的關係業務，並淡化僅信貸和非關係業務。

We reduced risk-weighted assets by $4 billion in the fourth quarter, and as Chris mentioned, by approximately $14 billion in 2023. The majority of the decline in risk-weighted assets this quarter was from lower loan balances, with some reduction in unused commitments also contributing. We would expect modest RWA reductions in the first half of 2024.

我們在第四季度減少了40 億美元的風險加權資產，正如Chris 所提到的，到2023 年減少了約140 億美元。本季風險加權資產的下降大部分來自貸款餘額的減少，未使用的承諾也有所減少也做出了貢獻。我們預計 RWA 將在 2024 年上半年適度減少。

Turning to Slide 7. Key's long-standing commitment to primacy continues to deliver a stable, diverse base of core deposits for funding. Despite a year of market volatility, we grew period-end deposits year-over-year by $3 billion, and average deposits were relatively stable compared to the year ago period and prior quarter.

轉向投影片 7.Key 對首要地位的長期承諾繼續提供穩定、多樣化的核心存款融資基礎。儘管經歷了一年的市場波動，我們的期末存款年增了 30 億美元，平均存款與去年同期和上一季相比相對穩定。

On a sequential basis, commercial deposits grew 4%, which we attribute primarily to seasonal build and consumer deposits grew 1%. The increase in commercial and consumer deposits was mostly offset by a $2 billion decline in broker deposits on average, as we continue to improve the quality of our funding mix by growing core relationship balances and reducing reliance on wholesale funding and broker deposits.

商業存款較上季成長 4%，我們主要將其歸因於季節性成長，而消費者存款則成長 1%。商業和消費者存款的成長大部分被經紀人存款平均下降​​ 20 億美元所抵消，因為我們透過增加核心關係餘額和減少對批發資金和經紀人存款的依賴，繼續提高融資組合的品質。

Since the end of the first quarter, we generated almost $13 billion of liquidity by reducing loans and growing relationship deposits, and reduced wholesale borrowings by $12 billion.

自第一季末以來，我們透過減少貸款和增加關係存款創造了近 130 億美元的流動性，並減少了 120 億美元的批發借款。

Our total cost of deposits was 206 basis points in the fourth quarter and our cumulative deposit beta, which includes all interest-bearing deposits, was 49% since the Fed began raising interest rates, in line with our prior guidance of approaching 50% by year-end 2023.

第四季我們的總存款成本為 206 個基點，自聯準會開始升息以來，我們的累計存款貝塔值（包括所有計息存款）為 49%，與我們之前每年接近 50% 的指導一致- 2023 年底。

The higher rate environment continued to impact our deposit mix, as our noninterest-bearing deposits declined by 1% sequentially to 22%. Pressure on deposit pricing appears to be abating across the franchise, though we expect some mix shift to continue as long as rates remain high.

較高的利率環境持續影響我們的存款組合，我們的無利息存款環比下降 1% 至 22%。儘管我們預計只要利率保持在高位，一些組合轉變就會繼續下去，但整個特許經營業務的存款定價壓力似乎正在減輕。

Turning to Slide 8. Taxable equivalent net interest income was $928 million for the fourth quarter, down 24% from the year ago period and up slightly from the prior quarter. Our net interest margin was 2.07% for the fourth quarter compared to 2.73% for the same period last year and 2.01% for the fourth quarter -- the prior quarter.

轉向投影片 8。第四季應稅等值淨利息收入為 9.28 億美元，比去年同期下降 24%，比上一季略有上升。我們第四季的淨利差為 2.07%，去年同期為 2.73%，第四季（上一季）為 2.01%。

Year-over-year, net interest income and the net interest margin reflect the impact of higher interest rates, as increased cost of interest-bearing deposits and borrowings outpaced the benefit from higher earning asset yields. Additionally, the balance sheet experienced a shift in funding mix from noninterest-bearing deposits to higher cost interest-bearing deposits.

與去年同期相比，淨利息收入和淨利差反映了利率上升的影響，因為計息存款和借款成本的增加超過了生息資產收益率上升的收益。此外，資產負債表的融資組合也從無息存款轉向成本較高的有息存款。

Relative to the third quarter, the increase in net interest income and net interest margin were driven by actions taken to manage key interest rate risk, elevated levels of liquidity and an improved funding mix. The increase was partly offset by higher interest-bearing deposit costs, which exceeded the benefit from higher earning asset yields.

與第三季相比，淨利息收入和淨利差的成長是由於管理主要利率風險、流動性水準提高和融資組合改善而採取的行動。這一增長被較高的計息存款成本所部分抵消，該成本超過了較高的生息資產收益率帶來的收益。

While the planned reduction in loan balances adversely impacted net interest income sequentially, it benefited Key's net interest margin.

雖然貸款餘額的計劃減少對淨利息收入產生了不利影響，但有利於 Key 的淨利差。

Our net interest margin and net interest income continue to reflect the headwind from our short-dated treasuries and swaps, which, together, reduced net interest income by $345 million this quarter or by $1.4 billion for the full year and lowered our net interest margin by 77 basis points this quarter.

我們的淨利差和淨利息收入繼續反映了短期國債和掉期的不利因素，這使得本季度的淨利息收入減少了3.45 億美元，全年減少了14 億美元，並使我們的淨利差減少了本季上漲 77 個基點。

As previously discussed during our third quarter earnings call, in October, we terminated $7.5 billion of received fixed cash flow swaps, which were scheduled to mature throughout 2024. Last quarter, we said that net interest margin would bottom, and it did. Throughout 2024, we would expect continued benefit from the maturities of our short-term swaps and treasuries, especially as more mature in the back half of the year.

正如我們之前在第三季財報電話會議上討論的那樣，我們於10 月終止了已收到的75 億美元固定現金流掉期，這些掉期計劃在2024 年全年到期。上個季度，我們表示淨利差將觸底，事實確實如此。在整個 2024 年，我們預計短期掉期和國債的到期將繼續受益，特別是在下半年更加成熟。

Moving to Slide 9. Noninterest income was $610 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, down $61 million from the year ago period and down $33 million from the third quarter. The decrease in noninterest income from a year ago reflects a $36 million decline in investment banking and debt placement fees, driven by lower syndication fees and M&A advisory.

轉到投影片 9。2023 年第四季的非利息收入為 6.1 億美元，比去年同期減少 6,100 萬美元，比第三季減少 3,300 萬美元。非利息收入較上年同期下降反映了投資銀行和債務配售費用減少了 3,600 萬美元，這是由於銀團費用和併購諮詢費用降低所致。

Additionally, corporate services income declined $22 million, driven by lower customer derivatives trading revenue. The decrease in noninterest income for the third quarter reflects a $13 million decrease in other income, primarily driven by a gain on a loan sale in the prior quarter.

此外，由於客戶衍生性商品交易收入下降，企業服務收入下降了 2,200 萬美元。第三季非利息收入的減少反映出其他收入減少了 1,300 萬美元，這主要是由於上一季貸款銷售的收益所致。

I'm now on Slide 10. Total noninterest expense for the quarter was $1.4 billion, up $216 million from the year ago period, and up $262 million from last quarter. As mentioned, fourth quarter results reflect $275 million of impact from FDIC assessment, efficiency-related expenses and pension settlement charge.

我現在看到的是幻燈片 10。該季度的非利息支出總額為 14 億美元，比去年同期增加 2.16 億美元，比上季增加 2.62 億美元。如前所述，第四季度業績反映了 FDIC 評估、效率相關費用和退休金結算費用帶來的 2.75 億美元影響。

Efficiency-related expenses included $39 million related to severance and $24 million of corporate real estate rationalization and other contract termination or renegotiation costs. Excluding these items, expenses were relatively stable in the quarter and down compared to the year ago period.

與效率相關的費用包括 3,900 萬美元的遣散費和 2,400 萬美元的公司房地產合理化費用以及其他合約終止或重新談判費用。排除這些項目，本季費用相對穩定，與去年同期相比有所下降。

We continue to proactively manage our expense base and simplify and streamline our business, so we can continue to reinvest in all our businesses.

我們繼續積極管理我們的費用基礎並簡化和精簡我們的業務，以便我們可以繼續對所有業務進行再投資。

Moving to Slide 11. Overall credit quality and our related outlook remains solid. For the fourth quarter, net charge-offs were $76 million or 26 basis points of average loans. This compares to $71 million in the prior quarter.

轉到投影片 11。整體信用品質和我們的相關前景仍然穩健。第四季淨沖銷額為 7,600 萬美元，相當於平均貸款的 26 個基點。相比之下，上一季為 7,100 萬美元。

Criticized outstandings to period-end loans increased 50 basis points this quarter, driven by movements in real estate, health care and consumer goods. While nonperforming loans and criticized loans continue to move up off their historical lows, we believe Key is well positioned in terms of potential loss content. Over half of our NPLs are still current.

在房地產、醫療保健和消費品波動的推動下，本季期末貸款未償餘額增加了 50 個基點。儘管不良貸款和批評貸款繼續脫離歷史低點，但我們認為 Key 在潛在損失內容方面處於有利地位。我們一半以上的不良貸款仍然有效。

Our provision for credit losses was $102 million for the fourth quarter, including $26 million of reserve build, and our allowance for credit losses to period-end loans increased from 1.54% to 1.60%.

第四季我們的信貸損失準備金為 1.02 億美元，其中包括 2,600 萬美元的準備金建設，期末貸款的信貸損失準備金從 1.54% 增加到 1.60%。

Turning to Slide 12. We significantly increased our capital position throughout 2023. We ended the fourth quarter with common equity Tier 1 ratio of 10%, up 20 basis points from the prior quarter and up 90 basis points from the year ago period. We remain focused on building capital in advance of newly proposed capital rules, while continuing to support relationship client activity and the return of capital. As such, we expect to stay above our current targeted range of 9% to 9.5% and do not expect to be buying back our stock in the near term.

轉向投影片12。我們在2023 年全年大幅增加了資本部位。第四季結束時，我們的普通股一級資本比率為10%，比上一季上升20 個基點，比去年同期上升90 個基點。我們仍然專注於在新提出的資本規則出台之前累積資本，同時繼續支持關係客戶活動和資本回報。因此，我們預計股價將保持在目前 9% 至 9.5% 的目標區間之上，並且預計不會在短期內回購我們的股票。

Our AOCI position improved by $1.4 billion this quarter. The right side of this slide shows Key's go-forward expected reduction in our AOCI mark based on 2 scenarios: the forward curve is December 31, which assumes 6 FOMC rate cuts in 2024, and another scenario where rates remain at their current levels.

本季我們的 AOCI 部位增加了 14 億美元。這張投影片的右側顯示了Key 基於兩種情境對AOCI 標記的未來預期下調：遠期曲線為12 月31 日，假設FOMC 在2024 年降息6 次，另一種情境是利率維持在當前水平。

In the forward curve scenario, the AOCI mark is expected to decline by approximately 24% by the end of 2024 and 34% by the end of 2025, which would provide approximately $1.8 billion of capital build through that time frame.

在遠期曲線情境中，AOCI 馬克預計到 2024 年底將下降約 24%，到 2025 年底將下降 34%，這將在這段時間內提供約 18 億美元的資本建設。

In the flat rate scenario, we still achieved 90% of that benefit between now and year-end 2025. Said differently, we still accrete $1.6 billion of capital rates remain flat to current levels, driven by maturities, cash flow and time.

在統一利率情境下，從現在到2025 年底，我們仍然實現了90% 的收益。換句話說，在期限、現金流和時間的推動下，我們仍然累積了16 億美元的資本，利率保持在當前水平。

Slide 13 provides our outlook for 2024 relative to 2023. Given uncertainty regarding eventual timing and extent of Fed interest rate cuts in 2024, our guidance reflects outputs from a few potential scenarios, ranging from the December 31 forward curve, which assumes 625 basis point cuts over the course of 2024, starting with an initial cut in March, to a scenario more closely aligned with the Fed's dot plots, which currently assumes 3 rate cuts.

投影片13 提供了我們對2024 年相對於2023 年的展望。鑑於2024 年聯準會降息的最終時間和幅度存在不確定性，我們的指引反映了一些潛在情景的產出，包括12 月31 日遠期曲線（假設降息625 個基點） 2024 年，從 3 月的首次降息開始，到與聯準會點陣圖更一致的情境（目前假設有 3 次降息）。

We expect average loans to be down 5% to 7%, mostly reflecting the actions we have already taken over the course of 2023. In other words, the vast majority of the decline in average loans is a function of our reductions in 2023 and are reflected in our year-end balance.

我們預計平均貸款將下降 5% 至 7%，這主要反映了我們在 2023 年採取的行動。換句話說，平均貸款下降的絕大部分是我們 2023 年削減的結果，並且是反映在我們的年終餘額中。

We expect period-end loans at the end of 2024 to be relatively stable compared to the end of 2023, with some decline in the first half of the year offset by growth expected in the second half of 2024. We expect average deposits to be flat to down 2%.

我們預期 2024 年底期末貸款與 2023 年底相比相對穩定，上半年的部分下降將被 2024 年下半年的預期成長所抵銷。我們預期平均存款將持平下降 2%。

Net interest income is expected to be down 2% to 5%, mostly reflecting the lower fourth quarter exit rate relative to the first half of 2023. This equates to net interest income in 2024 that is up low single digits, relative to our annualized fourth quarter exit rate. I'll provide more color on our net interest income outlook shortly.

淨利息收入預計將下降2% 至5%，主要反映了第四季度退出率相對2023 年上半年較低。這相當於2024 年淨利息收入相對於我們的年化第四季度增長了低個位數季退出率。我很快就會對我們的淨利息收入前景提供更多資訊。

We expect noninterest income to be up 5% or better, with upside of capital market activity normalizes and market levels and GDP trends remain constructive.

我們預期非利息收入將成長 5% 或更高，資本市場活動上行正常化，市場水準和 GDP 趨勢維持建設性。

Noninterest expense should be relatively stable at about $4.4 billion, as we realize the benefits from our 2023 efficiency actions. We will continue to tightly manage our cost base, including executing on additional opportunities to simplify and streamline our organization. At the same time, we will continue to protect and invest in our franchise, including, most importantly, our people.

隨著我們意識到 2023 年效率行動的好處，非利息支出應該相對穩定在 44 億美元左右。我們將繼續嚴格管理我們的成本基礎，包括利用更多機會來簡化和精簡我們的組織。同時，我們將繼續保護和投資我們的特許經營權，包括最重要的是我們的員工。

As Chris mentioned, our guidance suggests moderate positive operating leverage in 2024, driven by meaningful expansion in the second half of the year, outpacing tough comparisons in the first half.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們的指引表明，在下半年有意義的擴張的推動下，2024 年將出現適度的正營運槓桿，超過了上半年的艱難比較。

For the year, we expect credit quality to remain strong and net charge-offs to continue to modestly increase to the 30 to 40 basis point range, still well below our over-the-cycle range of 40 to 60 basis points. Our guidance for our GAAP tax rate is approximately 20%.

今年，我們預計信貸品質將保持強勁，淨沖銷將繼續小幅增加至 30 至 40 個基點範圍，但仍遠低於我們 40 至 60 個基點的周期範圍。我們對 GAAP 稅率的指引約為 20%。

Turning to Slide 14. Given heightened investor focus on this topic, we wanted to provide a little more granularity than we have in the past about the pacing of our net interest income opportunity as we move through 2024. Hopefully, by now, you're familiar with our well-defined net interest income tailwind as the impact of our short-term swaps roll off and treasuries mature, especially in the back half of 2024. The ultimate opportunity remains largely unchanged at approximately $900 million.

轉向幻燈片 14。鑑於投資者對這一主題的關注度越來越高，我們希望提供比過去更詳細的信息，以了解 2024 年淨利息收入機會的節奏。希望到目前為止，您已經了解了隨著我們的短期互換的影響逐漸減弱以及國債的成熟，尤其是在2024 年下半年，我們熟悉了明確的淨利息收入順風車。最終機會基本上保持在約9 億美元不變。

As a reminder, the benefit increases each quarter as more of the swaps roll off and treasuries mature, culminating in the full amount in the first quarter of 2025. So this all builds quarter-by-quarter, since the initial set of swaps came off the books in first quarter of 2023.

提醒一下，隨著更多掉期的推出和國債的成熟，每個季度的收益都會增加，最終在2025 年第一季達到全額。因此，自從最初的一組掉期結束以來，這一切都是逐季建立的2023 年第一季的書籍。

As we turn the page on 2023, we are nearing the halfway point of this journey. Since we're now through 3 full quarters, we're sharing a 3-part view.

當我們翻過 2023 年這一頁時，我們已經接近這趟旅程的一半。由於我們現在已經經歷了 3 個完整季度，因此我們將分享由 3 部分組成的視圖。

First, on the left in light gray, are the 3 quarters of benefit we've already realized. In total, for 2023, that was approximately $85 million of additional income. The next 4 bars showed the progression through 2024. As you see, the value builds from each quarter's tranche and accrues in the following quarter. Each bar represents the value for the quarter.

首先，左邊的淺灰色部分是我們已經實現的 3 個季度的收益。到 2023 年，額外收入總計約 8,500 萬美元。接下來的 4 個長條圖顯示了截至 2024 年的進展。如您所見，價值從每個季度的部分中構建並在下一個季度累積。每個條形代表該季度的值。

In other words, in 1Q '24, we expect to realize $78 million of additional net interest income versus 1Q '23 from these positions.

換句話說，與 23 年第一季相比，我們預計 24 年第一季這些部位將實現 7,800 萬美元的額外淨利息收入。

For 2024, we estimate the benefit to be approximately $500 million in total, which is the sum of the 4 quarterly bars. This would represent an increase of more than $400 million over the benefit received in 2023, which, as previously mentioned, was approximately $85 million.

對於 2024 年，我們估計收益總額約為 5 億美元，這是 4 個季度長條圖的總和。這意味著比 2023 年收到的福利增加了 4 億多美元，如前所述，2023 年的福利約為 8,500 萬美元。

The final bar to the far right, which has been the main focus of this discussion over the last year or so, is the first quarter 2025 number. This shows the benefit, currently estimated for the quarter, at approximately $220 million from essentially the entire swap and short-term treasury portfolios rolling off. Again, this is incremental to 1Q '23 and represents an annualized value of approximately $900 million.

最右邊的最後一個欄位是 2025 年第一季的數字，這是過去一年左右討論的主要焦點。這表明，目前估計該季度的收益約為 2.2 億美元，主要來自整個掉期和短期國債投資組合的滾動。同樣，這是相對 23 年第一季的增量，年化價值約為 9 億美元。

We believe the reinvestment of these fixed rate assets and swaps represents an outsized opportunity for Key relative to our peers. But it's also important to remember that this is just one component that drives our net interest income outlook.

我們認為，相對於我們的同行，這些固定利率資產和掉期的再投資對 Key 來說是一個巨大的機會。但同樣重要的是要記住，這只是推動我們淨利息收入前景的因素之一。

On Slide 15, we provide other key inputs and assumptions driving our NII outlook, deposit betas, balances and mix, loan growth as well as seasonal factors.

在投影片 15 中，我們提供了推動我們的 NII 前景、存款貝塔值、餘額和組合、貸款成長以及季節性因素的其他關鍵輸入和假設。

Putting this all together, we expect our first quarter NII to be down 3% to 5% from the fourth quarter. From there, we expect to grow and start to accelerate in the second half of the year, as the pace of swaps in U.S. treasury maturities pick up meaningfully and nearly $5 billion in aggregate per quarter.

綜上所述，我們預計第一季 NII 將比第四季下降 3% 至 5%。從那時起，我們預計將在下半年成長並開始加速，因為美國國債到期互換的步伐顯著加快，每季總計接近 50 億美元。

From the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2024, we expect our quarterly net interest income to grow 10% plus and exit the year north of $1 billion. We would also expect the net interest margin to improve meaningfully to the 2.40% to 2.50% range by the end of 2024. This will put us on a strong trajectory as we enter 2025.

從 2023 年第四季到 2024 年第四季度，我們預計季度淨利息收入將成長 10% 以上，全年將超過 10 億美元。我們也預計，到 2024 年底，淨利差將顯著改善至 2.40% 至 2.50% 的範圍。這將使我們在進入 2025 年時走上強勁的軌道。

With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator for instructions for the Q&A portion of our call. Operator?

這樣，我現在將把電話轉回給接線員，以獲取電話問答部分的說明。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from Peter Winter with D.A. Davidson. Mr. Winter, I apologize here. Go ahead, Mr. Winter.

我們的第一個問題將由 Peter Winter 和 D.A. 提出。戴維森。溫特先生，我在這裡道歉。繼續吧，溫特先生。

All right. Great. Clark, a lot of good color on the net interest income with those slides, but can you just go into a little bit more detail about the moving parts to the net interest income opportunity, and maybe some other factors that impact your outlook?

好的。偉大的。克拉克，這些投影片對淨利息收入有很多精彩的闡述，但是您能否更詳細地介紹一下淨利息收入機會的變化部分，以及可能影響您前景的其他一些因素？

And then secondly, if you could talk about the quarterly NII progression. You gave us the first quarter down 3%, but clearly, it's going to be a pretty meaningful impact -- uptick in the second half of the year.

其次，您能否談談季度 NII 的進展。您告訴我們第一季下降了 3%，但顯然，這將產生相當有意義的影響——下半年將會上升。

Sure. Thanks, Peter. And I appreciate the question. I know this is a point of interest. So let me provide a little bit of context to the guide and the trajectory and hopefully, it will be helpful.

當然。謝謝，彼得。我很欣賞這個問題。我知道這是一個興趣點。因此，讓我為指南和軌跡提供一些背景信息，希望這會有所幫助。

I think first, maybe just start with the puts and takes, which I think is the nature of your question there, and I'm going to just categorize sort of the big movers. I think one, loan balances, which, again, we guided kind of down 5% to 7% for the year.

我認為首先，也許只是從看跌期權和看跌期權開始，我認為這就是你問題的本質，我將只對一些大的推動者進行分類。我認為，貸款餘額今年我們再次指導下降 5% 至 7%。

Asset yields, I'm going to separate those from the swaps and treasuries because I just want to identify those separately. Deposit balances, deposit pricing and funding costs and then the swaps and treasury portfolio.

資產收益率，我將把它們與掉期和國債分開，因為我只想分別識別它們。存款餘額、存款定價和融資成本，然後是掉期和國債投資組合。

So if you think about those as kind of 5 key levers on the guide. If I go full year '23 to full year '24, which we've said down 2% to 5%, the headwinds there are going to be the loan book, so down 5% to 7%. Obviously, that's going to impact NII.

因此，如果您將這些視為指南上的 5 個關鍵槓桿。如果我從 23 全年到 24 全年，我們說過下降 2% 到 5%，那麼阻力將是貸款帳簿，所以下降 5% 到 7%。顯然，這將影響 NII。

Deposits flat to down is a little bit of a drag. Earning asset yields will drop year-over-year as rates get cut and then deposit and funding costs will be up for the year as that fourth quarter kind of annualized number rolls through.

存款持平或下降有點拖累。隨著利率下調，獲利資產收益率將年減，然後隨著第四季度年化數據的推移，今年的存款和融資成本將上升。

So those are the headwinds. What we have coming our way is the swaps in the treasury portfolio as they mature throughout the year and then a better funding mix as we move through and become more and more reliant on deposits as we have this year. So that's sort of dimensionalizes what that year-over-year look shakes out to be.

所以這些都是不利因素。我們所面臨的是隨著國債投資組合在全年的成熟而進行的掉期，然後隨著我們像今年一樣越來越依賴存款，我們將實現更好的融資組合。所以這有點維度化了逐年變化的外觀。

If you take the fourth quarter of '23 annualized and you compare that to the full year '24, we're guiding up low single digits there. The biggest difference being that, that funding cost, that really is pretty flat from fourth quarter through '24, which was not the case if you did the year-over-year comparison, and you still get the benefits of swaps and treasuries coming in during the year and a better funding mix.

如果你把 23 年第四季的年化數據與 24 年全年進行比較，你會發現我們的指引是低個位數。最大的區別在於，從第四季度到 24 年，融資成本確實相當持平，如果你進行同比比較，情況就不是這樣了，而且你仍然可以獲得掉期和國債的好處年內實現了更好的融資組合。

So you start to see that down 2% to 5%, flip to up low single digits. We talked a little bit about the first quarter being down, but let me just go fourth quarter to fourth quarter. So I think that exit piece is important. You're going to have deposits down a bit and earning asset yields down a bit, going from fourth quarter of '23 to fourth quarter of '24, but you get a nice pickup in the quarterly swap and treasury portfolio, our overall funding costs should be down in that quarter as rates have been cut throughout the year. And then again, you still have some benefits of funding mix. And all that together, we think, is 10% plus quarter-to-quarter NII growth.

所以你開始看到下降 2% 到 5%，然後轉向低個位數。我們討論了第一季度的下滑，但讓我談談第四季的情況。所以我認為退出部分很重要。從 23 年第四季到 24 年第四季度，存款會略有下降，資產收益率也會略有下降，但季度掉期和國債投資組合、我們的總體融資成本都會有不錯的回升由於全年利率都在下調，該季度的利率應該會下降。話又說回來，融資組合仍然有一些好處。我們認為，所有這些加在一起，NII 季度環比增長將達到 10% 以上。

So we think that's a nice pickup kind of end of year to end of year. And then as you roll into 2025, you have that last $5 billion tranche of treasuries and swaps maturing in the fourth quarter that accrues to the first quarter of '25, so we start to hit the ground running really nicely with a very steep trajectory as we enter '25.

因此，我們認為這是年末到年底的一次不錯的回升。然後，當你進入2025 年時，最後一批50 億美元的國債和掉期交易將在第四季度到期，並累積到25 年第一季度，因此我們開始以非常陡峭的軌跡開始很好地運行：我們進入'25。

So I'll stop there. That was a lot of stuff, but just trying to give you the components that are moving around.

所以我就到此為止。內容很多，但只是想為您提供正在移動的組件。

And just -- what are you expecting or assuming in terms of the forward curve and the timing of the rate cuts?

只是－您對遠期曲線和降息時間有何預期或假設？

Yes. So our guide of 2% to 5% kind of incorporates a couple of different views, kind of the range being the current forward down 6% with the first cut in March, incorporating the lesser cuts on the 3 Fed dot plots. I think our general view is more aligned to 4 cuts, with the first one middle of the year. But we're trying to provide guidance that I think incorporates all that. And as you know, when those cuts occur and the magnitude of that will roll through to how we manage our deposit pricing, obviously.

是的。因此，我們的 2% 至 5% 指導方針包含了幾種不同的觀點，其中的範圍是當前遠期利率在 3 月首次降息後下降 6%，其中包括 3 次聯準會點陣圖的較小降息。我認為我們的總體觀點更傾向於四次削減，第一次是在年中。但我們正在努力提供我認為包含所有這些內容的指導。如你所知，當這些削減發生時，其幅度顯然將影響我們如何管理存款定價。

Got. And then, Vern, congratulations on the announcement. It's just been a pure pleasure working with you and the investment community will be missing you.

得到。然後，弗恩，恭喜您宣布這一消息。與您合作真是一種榮幸，投資界將會想念您。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Next, we go to the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler.

接下來，我們將回顧 Scott Siefers 和 Piper Sandler 的作品。

Thanks for all the moving pieces in the NII color. I guess, Clark, you discussed the 3% sort of normalized margin. I know we get sort of one final uplift between fourth quarter of next year and first part of 2025. So the -- I think the way you've guided to fourth quarter of next year gets you a lot of the way there, but certainly still some room left over. Is the 3% normalized margin kind of still where you're bogeying, and what has to happen to get us to do that sort of range?

感謝 NII 色彩中所有令人感動的作品。我想，克拉克，您討論了 3% 的標準化保證金。我知道我們在明年第四季到 2025 年上半年之間會得到最終的提升。所以，我認為你指導明年第四季的方式會讓你取得很大進展，但當然還剩下一些空間。 3% 的標準化利潤率仍然是你所忌諱的嗎？需要發生什麼才能讓我們達到這樣的範圍？

Yes. Thanks, Scott. So if you just go back and we talked a little bit about this, and it's overly simplistic to be clear. But if we took second, third, fourth quarter of '23 and put the impact of swaps and treasuries back in the margin, we'd be 2.81% to 2.84% in those quarters, which we think is pretty reflective of what we've got right now, and that's with this sort of oddly long-standing downward yield sloping -- downward sloping yield curve.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。因此，如果您回去我們稍微討論一下這個問題，您會發現它過於簡單化了。但如果我們以23 年第二、第三、第四季為例，將掉期和國債的影響重新計入利潤率，那麼這些季度的利潤率將達到2.81% 至2.84%，我們認為這非常反映了我們的情況。現在就得到了，這就是這種奇怪的長期向下傾斜的殖利率曲線——向下傾斜的殖利率曲線。

So I think, that range as we get into '25, feels like achievable. And I think getting to that longer term 3 probably needs us to have a more traditional upward slipping yield curve, just that tends to accrue a little bit to all of our benefit on NIM. But I do think that 2.80% plus is pretty reflective of the underlying core ability of the business as it stands today.

所以我認為，當我們進入 25 世紀時，這個範圍感覺是可以實現的。我認為，要實現長期的 3 可能需要我們有一個更傳統的向上滑動的殖利率曲線，而這往往會增加我們在淨利差上的所有收益。但我確實認為 2.80% 以上相當能反映企業目前的基本核心能力。

Perfect. And then either Clark or Chris, just the fee guidance feels like you're approaching with an abundance of conservatism regarding the capital markets outlook. Just curious if you could maybe put a finer point on what sort of recovery you are, presuming what kind of upward leverage there might be if things do normalize?

完美的。然後，無論是克拉克還是克里斯，光是費用指導就讓人感覺你對資本市場前景持非常保守的態度。只是好奇你是否可以更詳細地說明你的復甦情況，假設如果情況確實正常化，可能會有什麼樣的向上槓桿？

Sure, Scott. Happy to address that. So if you take what we just reported of $136 million, specifically on the line you asked about investment banking and debt placement fees, that would annualize at about $544 million.

當然，斯科特。很高興解決這個問題。因此，如果您考慮我們剛剛報告的 1.36 億美元，特別是您詢問的投資銀行和債務配售費用，那麼年化金額約為 5.44 億美元。

Conversely, if you took sort of the business and remove 2021 and said that's an outlier, the traditional run rate is at least kind of $650 million. So I think we have been conservative, and that's why we -- when we gave guidance, we said noninterest income up 5% plus, and then we put the qualifier upside if capital markets activity normalizes.

相反，如果你對業務進行排序並刪除 2021 年並說這是一個異常值，那麼傳統的運行率至少為 6.5 億美元。所以我認為我們一直很保守，這就是為什麼我們——當我們給出指導時，我們說非利息收入增長 5% 以上，然後如果資本市場活動正常化，我們將限定因素上調。

We don't see it really normalizing until the back half of the year. However, it's an interesting phenomenon when the 10-year went above 5% and then came back down, as you can imagine, people started to transact. And so we're seeing the beginning of it now. But yes, it's a conservative number.

直到今年下半年，我們才能看到它真正正常化。然而，這是一個有趣的現象，當 10 年期國債升至 5% 以上然後回落時，正如你可以想像的那樣，人們開始進行交易。所以我們現在看到了它的開始。但是，是的，這是一個保守的數字。

The other thing that's in that fee number is -- you saw that we had a step down with respect to our derivatives and hedging income, a lot of that is tied to the balance sheet. And as we go through 2024, and we get back to growing the balance sheet after going through our exercise on RWAs, you'll see that come back as well.

該費用數字中的另一件事是 - 您看到我們在衍生品和對沖收入方面有所下降，其中許多與資產負債表相關。當我們進入 2024 年時，在完成 RWA 練習後，我們將重新開始擴大資產負債表，您也會看到這種情況也會回來。

Okay. Perfect. And then finally, Vern, best wishes. Thank you so much for everything.

好的。完美的。最後，弗恩，祝你一切順利。非常感謝你的一切。

Thank you, Scott.

謝謝你，斯科特。

Next, we go to John Pancari with Evercore.

接下來，我們將與 Evercore 一起拜訪約翰潘卡里 (John Pancari)。

First, congratulations, Vern. Best of luck. You are a legend. And Brian, welcome, looking forward to working with you again.

首先，恭喜你，弗恩。祝你好運。你是一個傳奇。 Brian，歡迎，期待再次與您合作。

Question on the -- a little bit more on the NII dynamics. I wanted to get your thoughts on, if we do see the cuts to materialize as you had baked in your expectations, what type of deposit beta you expect is achievable on the initial cuts? And how would you think about a cumulative on the way down? And what is factored into your net interest income outlook in terms of that beta?

關於 NII 動態的更多問題。我想了解您的想法，如果我們確實看到削減按照您的預期實現，那麼您期望在最初的削減中可以實現哪種類型的存款貝塔？您如何看待下跌過程中的累積？就貝塔值而言，您的淨利息收入前景會受到哪些因素影響？

Yes, John, so I'll just -- I'll start with that, and then I'm going to flip it over to Clark. A couple of things to keep in mind. We have a big commercial franchise. And so 40% of our deposits, $145 billion are commercial. And of those, about 2/3 are either indexed or index like.

是的，約翰，所以我會——我會從這個開始，然後我會把它交給克拉克。有幾點要記住。我們擁有大型商業特許經營權。因此，我們 40% 的存款（1,450 億美元）是商業存款。其中，大約 2/3 是已索引的或類似索引的。

Now on the other side of the equation, we've been pretty conservative in assuming that as the first cuts, particularly if they aren't steep cuts, that we'll continue to get drift up on the consumer side.

現在，在等式的另一邊，我們一直非常保守地假設，隨著第一次削減，特別是如果不是大幅削減，我們將繼續在消費者方面增加。

Also, we've also forecasted just a bit of continued transition from interest-bearing to noninterest-bearing, but we think we've sort of bottomed out there.

此外，我們也預測從有息到無息的持續過渡，但我們認為我們已經觸底。

Clark, what would you add to that?

克拉克，你對此有何補充？

Yes. So maybe broadly, John, on the NII guide, we would expect some drift up, particularly in the first quarter on deposit pricing, just as rates stay high. As Chris said, when the cuts come, I think a good way to think about that commercial book as we've talked about the index nature of it, as Chris just referenced, is sort of kind of an almost automatic mid-teens beta on a cut because of that -- how that index pulls through.

是的。因此，約翰，在國家資訊基礎設施指南上，我們預計總體上會出現一些上升，特別是在第一季的存款定價方面，因為利率保持在高位。正如克里斯所說，當削減到來時，我認為考慮這本商業書籍的一個好方法是我們已經討論過它的索引性質，正如克里斯剛才提到的，它是一種幾乎自動的青少年測試版因此而削減——該指數是如何渡過難關的。

So the question really is going to be what happens to the consumer book and how quickly can we move that? I think a 25 basis point cut with a kind of long waiting period. Does it provide a lot of opportunity to reduce if we start to see bigger cuts or cut sooner or more rapid cuts that allows us to deploy those price reductions into the book?

所以問題實際上是消費性書籍會發生什麼以及我們能多快改變它？我認為降息 25 個基點需要較長的等待期。如果我們開始看到更大幅度的降價或更快或更快速的降價，從而使我們能夠將這些降價部署到帳簿中，它是否提供了許多降價的機會？

So right now, as I said, we're really looking at, kind of our view is more like the 4 cuts starting in the middle of the year. We think we'll probably have some stabilization, maybe a little bit of consumer drift through that time period, and then we'll start to proactively move rates down.

所以現在，正如我所說，我們正在真正考慮，我們的觀點更像是從年中開始的 4 次削減。我們認為，我們可能會在這段時間內保持一定的穩定，也許消費者會出現一些變化，然後我們會開始主動降低利率。

But given the time frame in 2024, hard to say exactly what the beta will be on the way down for the year, but it's really going to pick up in '25. We'll see some benefit in '24, but on the consumer book, it's just going to lag a little bit. And that -- and candidly, that's just going to be as much a function of competitive environment as anything else. But we are taking some actions in the consumer book today to prepare 4 cuts. We're not cutting rates, but preparing our franchise to be ready for that. And I think we'll be very proactive when that opportunity shows up.

但考慮到 2024 年的時間框架，很難確切地說今年 Beta 值會下降多少，但它確實會在 25 年回升。我們將在 24 年看到一些好處，但在消費者方面，它只是會有點滯後。坦白說，這與其他因素一樣，都是競爭環境的結果。但我們今天在消費者手冊中採取了一些行動，準備進行 4 次削減。我們不是要降低價格，而是要讓我們的特許經營權為此做好準備。我認為當機會出現時我們會非常積極主動。

And frankly, all markets are not the same. We're out there experimenting with a few things as we speak.

坦白說，所有市場都不一樣。正如我們所說，我們正在嘗試一些事情。

Got it. Okay. And then separately, on the credit front, can you give us a little bit more color on the 25% increase in nonperformers in the quarter? And maybe a little more color on the criticized asset increase?

知道了。好的。另外，在信貸方面，您能給我們更多關於本季不良貸款增加 25% 的資訊嗎？也許對受批評的資產增加有更多的色彩？

And I know your commercial real estate NPL ratio now is 6.9%. What was that last quarter? Was that the biggest increase in the nonperformers?

我知道你們商業不動產現在不良貸款率為6.9%。上個季度是什麼情況？這是不良員工增幅最大的一次嗎？

Yes, I'll come back to you on the increase from third quarter. I don't have that right in front of me. But on your other points, the NPA uptick really is a small list of identified credits, most of which we feel very good about the loss content. So it is a pickup in the ratio, but we don't think that's a loss driver.

是的，我再告訴你第三季的成長情況。我面前沒有那個。但就你的其他觀點而言，NPA 的上升確實是一小部分已確定的信用，其中大部分我們對損失內容感到非常滿意。因此，該比率有所上升，但我們不認為這是一個損失驅動因素。

On criticized, look, that is a function of continued higher rates, putting some stress on what I'd call kind of the first order rating variable around debt service coverage. So that does drive rating migration in our book. That rating migration does pull through to criticized and classified. But when you get underneath that metric and you look at things like clients' willingness to build the interest reserve and the value of the collateral given we tend to underwrite at 60% or lower CLTVs out of the gate, we just don't see a lot of loss content there.

就批評而言，這是利率持續走高的結果，給我所說的圍繞償債覆蓋率的一階評級變數帶來了一些壓力。因此，這確實推動了我們書中的評級遷移。這種評級遷移確實會導致批評和分類。但是，當您低於該指標並考慮客戶建立利息儲備的意願和抵押品價值等因素時，考慮到我們傾向於以 60% 或更低的 CLTV 進行承保，我們只是看不到那裡有很多損失內容。

And then just one clarification, so it was primarily C&I related in terms of the NPA increase or CRE?

然後只有一個澄清，所以它主要與 NPA 增加或 CRE 方面的 C&I 相關？

There were 3 specific credits, one of which was real estate.

有 3 個特定學分，其中之一是房地產。

Next, we go to the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們和摩根士丹利一起去Manan Gosalia的路線。

I wanted to extend my best to Vern as well. And I just wanted to say we really appreciate all your help over the years. So a big thank you.

我也想向弗恩盡我所能。我只想說，我們非常感謝您多年來的所有幫助。非常感謝。

And then on my question, I think you said you still expect some modest RWA reduction in the first half of 2024. Is that all coming from the loan book? And as we think about the long end of the curve staying here or even moving lower, you should have a lot more clarity on accreting that AOCI back over time. So what would you need to start leaning into loan growth a little or deploying capital elsewhere?

關於我的問題，我想您說過您仍然預計 2024 年上半年 RWA 會略有減少。這一切都來自貸款帳簿嗎？當我們考慮曲線的長端停留在這裡甚至更低時，您應該對隨著時間的推移增加 AOCI 有了更清晰的認識。那麼，您需要什麼才能開始稍微傾斜貸款成長或將資本配置到其他地方呢？

Sure. So we are about where we need to be in terms of going through our whole portfolio. As we went through and we're looking and focused on RWAs, really was sort of in 3 buckets, and we actually went account by account. And I've often said that on a risk-adjusted basis, stand-alone credit properly graded can't return its cost of capital. And so we were extremely prescriptive across the entire firm of going through that.

當然。因此，我們正在考慮在整個投資組合方面需要達到的目標。當我們經歷並關注 RWA 時，我們實際上分為 3 個類別，而且我們實際上是逐個帳戶進行分析。我常說，在風險調整的基礎上，正確評級的獨立信貸無法收回其資本成本。因此，我們對整個公司的整個流程都制定了嚴格的規定。

On top of that, we exited some businesses like vendor finance that, by the way, is a credit-only business. And then on top of that, there were certain areas where we were conservative in terms of our capital treatment, where we could actually reduce RWAs without, in fact, having any impact on NII. That process is really over.

最重要的是，我們退出了一些業務，例如供應商融資，順便說一下，這是一項純信貸業務。除此之外，在某些領域，我們在資本待遇方面採取保守態度，實際上我們可以減少 RWA，而實際上不會對 NII 產生任何影響。這個過程就真的結束了。

When I say the process is over, we will continue, obviously, to look through our portfolio. But in terms of really seeing the step down in RWAs, as you saw last year, $14 billion, that's behind us. And so as we look forward, Clark talked about sort of the lag from the starting point on loan growth. But as you know, we have the ability to generate loan growth here at Key. We've got a long history of that. We'll be back kind of focused on serving our clients.

當我說這個過程結束時，顯然我們將繼續審視我們的投資組合。但就真正看到 RWA 的下降而言，正如您去年看到的 140 億美元，這已經是我們的過去了。因此，當我們展望未來時，克拉克談到了貸款成長從起點開始的某種滯後。但如您所知，我們有能力在 Key 創造貸款成長。我們在這方面有很長的歷史。我們將回來專注於為我們的客戶提供服務。

Now having said that, I personally have a view, everyone is sort of coalesced around the soft landing. I think inflation is still pretty sticky. I think there's a bunch of drivers out there. We're managing the business for a short recession in 2024. And obviously, that goes into our thinking, because if you think about working capital in the context of a shrinking economy, that shrank some loan demand.

話雖如此，我個人有一個觀點，每個人都在圍繞軟著陸團結起來。我認為通貨膨脹仍然相當棘手。我認為那裡有很多司機。我們正在管理業務以應對 2024 年的短暫衰退。顯然，這也納入了我們的考慮範圍，因為如果你在經濟萎縮的背景下考慮營運資本，就會減少一些貸款需求。

The other thing that we have to grow through, and this is by design, is we're going to have $3 billion of runoff in our consumer business. I hope that helps kind of on the puts and takes. When there's business to be done from a loan perspective, I'm confident that we can get it.

我們必須經歷的另一件事是我們有意實現的成長，那就是我們的消費者業務將擁有 30 億美元的徑流。我希望這對看跌期權有所幫助。當有貸款方面的業務需要完成時，我相信我們能夠完成它。

The only other thing I'd add, Manan, is just to reground everybody in the average-to-average move. So $118 billion of average in '23, ending point $112.6 billion. So most of that decline in loans happened last year. We're pulling that through. There may be a little bit more, as we said in the first quarter, maybe into the second quarter, as some of that nonrelationship business continues to move out. But we'll see the build back through the course of the year and expect the ending of '24 to be relatively stable with where we exit '23. So we'll see a rebound.

馬南，我唯一要補充的另一件事就是讓每個人都回到平均水平。因此，23 年平均收入為 1,180 億美元，最終目標為 1,126 億美元。因此，貸款下降大部分發生在去年。我們正在解決這個問題。正如我們在第一季所說，可能會更多一些，也許會進入第二季度，因為一些非關係業務繼續轉移。但我們將看到全年的建設情況，並預計 24 年末將與 23 年退出時相對穩定。所以我們會看到反彈。

And to Chris' point, if there's less softness in the economy and more opportunity, then we'll lean into that opportunity.

就克里斯的觀點而言，如果經濟疲軟程度減輕，機會增多，那麼我們就會抓住這個機會。

That's very helpful. And then for my follow-up, as we look out into 2025, there's a lot of puts and takes here on the NII side. But what's the most optimal rate environment for Key? Is it 6 rate cuts and then an upward sloping yield curve, is that the most optimal environment? Or would you rather see a higher short-end rate and a flatter yield curve?

這非常有幫助。接下來，當我們展望 2025 年時，NII 方面有很多調整和調整。但對於 Key 來說，最優化的費率環境是怎麼樣的呢？是6次降息，然後殖利率曲線向上傾斜，是不是最優化的環境？或者您寧願看到更高的短期利率和更平坦的殖利率曲線？

I think -- look, I think an upward sloping yield curve benefits the business broadly. I'm not as concerned at the moment about 4 cuts or 6 cuts. As we move through the year -- while we're liability sensitive today as we move through the year and swaps and treasury portfolios burn off, we're going to slightly become more asset-sensitive naturally.

我認為，看，我認為向上傾斜的殖利率曲線對整個企業都有好處。目前我並不擔心 4 次削減或 6 次削減。隨著這一年的推移，雖然我們今天對負債敏感，但隨著互換和國債投資組合的消耗，我們自然會稍微變得對資產更加敏感。

So we really want to be neutral and able to operate in any of those environments. But if I had my choice broadly, I think upward sloping yield curve is always a valuable place for us to be in this business.

因此，我們確實希望保持中立，並能夠在任何這些環境中運作。但如果我有廣泛的選擇，我認為向上傾斜的殖利率曲線對我們來說始終是這個行業的一個有價值的地方。

And our next question is from Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Erika Najarian。

So I apologize, one more question on net interest income. I think the stock is a little bit soft today because consensus was expecting quarterly positive progression on the net interest margin, given the fixed rate opportunity.

所以我很抱歉，還有一個關於淨利息收入的問題。我認為該股今天有點疲軟，因為鑑於固定利率機會，共識預計淨利差將出現季度積極進展。

And I'm just wondering in context of the modest RWA reductions, Clark, that you're forecasting or you're telling us is happening over the first half of the year. How much of that is impacting the NII trajectory? And are those RWAs being reduced through credit-linked notes that could impact the net interest income?

克拉克，我只是想知道，在 RWA 適度減少的情況下，您預測或告訴我們這將在今年上半年發生。其中有多少對 NII 軌跡產生了影響？這些 RWA 是否透過可能影響淨利息收入的信用掛鉤票據而減少？

And then as a follow-up to that, as we think past the first half of the year, do you feel like we've moved -- going back to what Chris has said, the process is over, is that a cleaner way to think about where your balance sheet is or has to be relative to where you think the capital could be in the second half of the year? In other words, there won't be any more wholesale actions that can impact this NII and NIM trajectory.

然後，作為後續行動，正如我們在今年上半年所思考的那樣，您是否覺得我們已經採取了行動 - 回到克里斯所說的，這個過程已經結束，這是一種更乾淨的方式嗎？考慮一下您的資產負債表目前或必須與您認為下半年的資本狀況有關嗎？換句話說，不會再有任何大規模行動影響 NII 和 NIM 軌跡。

Yes. So thank you, Erika. Good question, as always. So the decline in the first half, again, is the continuation of some actions we took to manage RWAs last year. So again, relationship -- nonrelationship and credit-only clients coming down.

是的。謝謝你，埃里卡。一如既往的好問題。因此，上半年的下降再次是我們去年為管理 RWA 所採取的一些行動的延續。再次強調，關係型客戶－非關係型客戶和純信用客戶正在減少。

We do -- we don't have anything factored in at the moment around RWA management related to credit-linked notes. As you and I have talked about before, we're doing our homework to understand those opportunities, but it's not part of the guidance at the moment.

我們確實這樣做——目前我們沒有考慮任何與信用掛鉤票據相關的 RWA 管理因素。正如你和我之前談到的，我們正在做功課來了解這些機會，但這不是目前指導的一部分。

Really, it would be that loan reduction, and that will put a little bit of pressure on first quarter, as will the fact that rates remain high in the first quarter under almost any cutting scenario, and we'll have a little bit of beta drift. So that's really the first quarter pressure. But I think your point about kind of a clean balance sheet entering the second half is the right one.

實際上，這將是貸款減少，這會給第一季帶來一點壓力，事實上，在幾乎任何削減情況下，第一季利率仍然很高，我們將有一點貝塔值漂移。所以這確實是第一季的壓力。但我認為你關於進入下半年的乾淨資產負債表的觀點是正確的。

And I think, again, we're suggesting kind of a tepid recession kind of mid to late year and if that doesn't come through, and we see a more constructive economic environment, I think there's some opportunity to grow loans. But I do think as we progress through the year, you'll see NIM expand, you'll see NII grow nicely and you'll see the balance sheet, I think, on the right trajectory.

我認為，我們再次建議在今年中後期出現溫和的衰退，如果這種情況沒有實現，並且我們看到了更具建設性的經濟環境，我認為有一些增加貸款的機會。但我確實認為，隨著這一年的進展，你會看到淨利差擴大，你會看到NII良好成長，我認為你會看到資產負債表走在正確的軌道上。

Got it. And my second question is a bit of a 2 parter as I'm trying to squeeze it in. One, Clark, I think when I first met you, I was very impressed by how you were so good at understanding where your funding needs and funding sources.

知道了。我的第二個問題有點像兩個人的問題，因為我試圖把它擠進去。第一，克拉克，我想當我第一次見到你時，你如此善於了解你的資金需求和資金需求，給我留下了深刻的印象。資金來源。

So my question for you is, are these 2/3 of your commercial deposits in commercial, are they truly indexed on the way down, right? There's a -- a few regional banks have warned us that they're indexed on the way up and perhaps more negotiated on the way down.

所以我想問你的問題是，你的商業存款中有 2/3 是商業存款嗎？它們真的是在下跌過程中指數化的嗎？有一些地區性銀行警告我們，它們在上漲時會被納入指數，而下跌時可能會進行更多協商。

And I guess the other question is that is it possible to break down on Slide 14 on your maturity schedule, what would the treasury's component be and the swap component, only because, obviously, there's a lot of debate on whether or not the cuts in the curve will happen, which clearly impacts some of the math behind the swaps.

我想另一個問題是，是否有可能在幻燈片 14 上分解你的到期時間表，財政部的組成部分和掉期組成部分是什麼，只是因為，顯然，對於是否削減利率存在很多爭論。曲線將會發生，這顯然會影響掉期背後的一些數學計算。

Yes. So the second one, Erika, is easy. We've -- I think we've provided that breakout before we'll deliver it. That's not a problem at all.

是的。所以第二個，艾莉卡，很容易。我認為我們在交付之前就已經提供了突破。這根本不是問題。

On the first, I think, look, it's a fair point because not all of those commercial deposits are contractually indexed. So I think that's the right question. There's always a little bit of easy to negotiate with the client when you're giving them right, and it's a little bit harder when you're taking it away.

首先，我認為，這是一個公平的觀點，因為並非所有這些商業存款都以合約指數化。所以我認為這是正確的問題。當你給予客戶正確的權利時，與客戶的談判總是容易一些，而當你剝奪他們的權利時，談判就會變得困難一些。

But I would say our view is while it may not perfectly pull through, we have spent a lot of time with these clients. We've been in front of them, probably more than we would take care to admit over the last year, but in a way that I think we have a good understanding of how those dynamics would work. And we expect that the components of what we think is our indexed will come through. And just as a reminder, the -- when we say indexed, it's not all 100% index.

但我想說的是，我們的觀點是，雖然它可能不會完全實現，但我們已經花了很多時間與這些客戶在一起。我們一直走在他們前面，可能比去年我們願意承認的要多，但在某種程度上，我認為我們對這些動態如何運作有很好的理解。我們預計我們認為索引的組成部分將會通過。提醒一下，當我們說索引時，並非全是 100% 索引。

So there's a range of that. So bringing a client down is indexed kind of 50% doesn't feel as challenging to negotiate than somebody who's coming down at 100% plus. And so the book is pretty broadly distributed across 20% to 100%, and we're going to actively engage those clients to make sure we can manage the book appropriately.

所以有一個範圍。因此，讓客戶降價 50% 並不比降價 100% 以上更具挑戰性。因此，這本書的受眾分佈相當廣泛，涵蓋 20% 到 100%，我們將積極與這些客戶互動，以確保我們能夠適當地管理這本書。

Got it. Thank you and yay, Vern!

知道了。謝謝你，耶，弗恩！

Thanks, Erika.

謝謝，埃里卡。

Next, we move to the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們轉向德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納（Matt O'Connor）。

Just a quick clarification. The fee guidance of 5%, you walked through a lot of detail on investment banking. Does that assume the 4Q annualized level? The kind of up $100 million more normal level or somewhere in between?

只是快速澄清一下。 5%的費用指導，您了解了很多有關投資銀行業務的細節。這是否假設第四季的年化水準？是正常水準上漲 1 億美元還是介於兩者之間？

It's a little bit in between, Matt, probably a little more leaning towards the higher number, but we do think if markets kind of fully normalized, we'd see a little bit outside. So it's better than the annualized fourth quarter, not quite all the way to what we would think is normal operation.

馬特，這有點介於兩者之間，可能更傾向於更高的數字，但我們確實認為，如果市場完全正常化，我們會看到一些外部情況。因此，它比年化第四季要好，但還沒有完全達到我們認為的正常營運水準。

Next, we move on to the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

接下來，我們轉向傑拉德卡西迪 (Gerard Cassidy) 與加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的合作。

Chris, one of the interesting developments over the last 12 to maybe 36 months has been the increased competition from the private credit lenders into the commercial space. Can you share with us -- obviously, you guys are a strong, big regional lender in the C&I space. What are you guys seeing from competition from those non-depository lenders?

Chris，過去 12 到 36 個月中有趣的發展之一是私人信貸機構進入商業領域的競爭加劇。您能否與我們分享一下——顯然，您是 C&I 領域實力雄厚的大型區域貸款機構。你們從這些非存款貸方的競爭中看到了什麼？

And the second, if any of them are your customers, how do you balance their needs with, at the same time, competing against them for lending?

第二，如果他們中的任何一個是你的客戶，你如何平衡他們的需求，同時與他們競爭貸款？

Sure. It's a great question, and it's developing quickly. So principally, they are customers of ours, and let me explain what I mean by that. As you well know, we distribute 80% of the capital we raised. So we are distributing, all the time, a lot of paper to these private debt funds, and it's an important part of our underwrite to distribute model.

當然。這是一個很好的問題，而且它正在迅速發展。因此，他們基本上是我們的客戶，讓我解釋一下我的意思。如您所知，我們分配了籌集資金的 80%。因此，我們一直在向這些私人債務基金分發大量票據，這是我們承銷分發模式的重要組成部分。

As we've said many times, for banks, a stand-alone properly graded credit can't return its cost of capital. That is not the situation for the private debt funds. They have the benefit of leverage on leverage. We have to be a relationship bank. We have to be able to provide all of the payments capabilities, all of the capital markets capabilities.

正如我們多次所說的，對於銀行來說，單獨的適當分級的信貸無法收回其資本成本。私人債務基金的情況並非如此。他們擁有槓桿上的槓桿優勢。我們必須成為一家關係銀行。我們必須能夠提供所有的支付能力、所有的資本市場能力。

And that's actually an opportunity for us because I think what you'll see is as these private debt funds continue to grow, they'll need to partner with banks and they'll want to partner with banks that have sophisticated capabilities around things like payments and capital markets, but don't necessarily want to hold on a risk-adjusted basis, paper that doesn't return, that doesn't hurdle. So I look at it, frankly, as an opportunity for us. I think we're well positioned for that.

這對我們來說實際上是一個機會，因為我認為你會看到隨著這些私人債務基金的不斷增長，他們將需要與銀行合作，並且他們將希望與在支付等方面擁有先進能力的銀行合作和資本市場，但不一定希望在風險調整的基礎上持有，不會回報的票據，這不構成障礙。所以坦白說，我認為這對我們來說是一個機會。我認為我們已經做好了充分準備。

Very good. And then coming back to credit, you mentioned, obviously, you have minimal or very low exposure to office space, which is great in this environment. And then you have the multifamily, exposure, but 40%, I think you said was in low-cost housing.

非常好。然後回到信用，你提到，顯然，你對辦公空間的接觸很少或非常低，這在這種環境下非常棒。然後你有多戶住宅，但 40%，我想你說的是低成本住房。

Can you share with us, what are you guys seeing in some of the markets where there's been rapid buildup of not necessarily low-cost housing or subsidized housing, but normal housing in the multifamily. Are you seeing issues in that subsegment of the multifamily market? Or do you not have much exposure to those markets that are growing rapidly?

您能否與我們分享一下，您在一些市場上看到了什麼，這些市場不一定是低成本住房或補貼住房，而是多戶住宅中的普通住房。您是否發現多戶型市場的該細分市場有問題？或者您對那些快速成長的市場沒有太多接觸？

Well, we don't have a lot of exposure because you'll remember, Gerard, we exited a lot of these what we call gateway cities, probably 5 years ago based on affordability, based on cap rates. But we do have a fair amount of insight in that we have this third-party commercial loan servicing business. And we are the named special servicer on over $200 billion of loans.

好吧，我們沒有太多的曝光度，因為你會記得，傑拉德，我們可能在 5 年前就退出了很多所謂的門戶城市，這是基於負擔能力和資本化率。但我們確實對第三方商業貸款服務業務有相當多的洞察力。我們是超過 2000 億美元貸款的指定特別服務商。

And in that area, 44% of what's in active special servicing, which is really what's in workout is office. But the fastest-growing segment over the last quarter was, in fact, multifamily in some of these gateway cities.

在該領域，44% 的活躍特殊服務（實際上是運動中的內容）是辦公室。但事實上，上個季度成長最快的部分是一些門戶城市的多戶住宅。

So we're not seeing it in our portfolio because it's not an area of focus, but we are picking it up through for the reconnaissance we get through our third-party commercial loan servicing business.

因此，我們在我們的投資組合中沒有看到它，因為它不是重點領域，但我們正在透過第三方商業貸款服務業務進行偵察。

Just one little add-on to that, that I think the group might find interesting that I did when I was talking to the leaders there. Actually, what is in special servicing is down -- we had a record year in 2023, as you can imagine. What is in active special servicing actually ticked down, which I think is just an interesting data point for all of us that kind of follow the market.

只是補充一點，我認為小組可能會覺得我在與那裡的領導者交談時所做的事情很有趣。事實上，特殊服務的數量有所下降——正如你可以想像的那樣，2023 年是創紀錄的一年。積極的特殊服務實際上有所下降，我認為這對我們所有追隨市場的人來說只是一個有趣的數據點。

Great, Chris. And Vern, really good luck on retirement. And I do want to point out that I have on my credenza the investor conference book from September of '95 when we had the infamous Elvis impersonator entertain us that night. So thank you, those are great memories, Vern. Thank you.

太棒了，克里斯。還有弗恩，祝你退休後好運。我確實想指出，我的書櫃裡有 95 年 9 月的投資者會議書籍，那天晚上，臭名昭著的貓王模仿者招待了我們。所以謝謝你，這些都是美好的回憶，弗恩。謝謝。

Well, fortunately, I wasn't around for that, but I'm sure Vern will be happy to sign it for you, Gerard.

好吧，幸運的是，我不在場，但我相信弗恩會很樂意為你簽名，傑拉德。

Next, we go to the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

接下來，我們轉到富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo 的路線。

Well, Chris, one of your competitors CEO said scale has never been more important and that competitor is larger than you are. And so pulling back the lens, how do you think about scale and how it's changed in the past year?

好吧，克里斯，你的競爭對手之一執行長說，規模從未如此重要，而且競爭對手比你更大。那麼拉回鏡頭，您如何看待規模以及它在過去一年中發生的變化？

And I have 2 specific questions before you give that broader answer. What percent of the value of commercial relationship is from the deposits? That's a specific number. And then what percent of the revenues that you get from your typical commercial relationship is fee-based versus lending based, because I think that gets to the larger value proposition of Key?

在你給出更廣泛的答案之前，我有兩個具體問題。商業關係價值的百分之幾來自存款？這是一個具體數字。然後，你從典型的商業關係中獲得的收入中有多少是基於費用的，而不是基於貸款，因為我認為這涉及到 Key 更大的價值主張？

For sure. Well, let me start with the larger question first, and then we'll talk a bit about the mix of spread income to fee income, which I do think, by the way -- let me just start there. I think that's a great barometer.

一定。好吧，讓我先從更大的問題開始，然後我們將討論利差收入與費用收入的混合，順便說一句，我確實認為這一點 - 讓我從這裡開始。我認為這是一個很好的晴雨表。

As you know, throughout Key, we're 40% fee income, which for a Category 4 bank is at the high end of the spectrum. As we look at businesses like our institutional bank, the split there in some areas is as high as 80% fees, 20% spread. And it varies depending on the business because some businesses are more capital-intensive than others. But that is one of the metrics we look at to see what kind of penetration we're getting.

如您所知，整個 Key 的手續費收入為 40%，這對於 4 類銀行來說屬於高端收入。當我們觀察像我們的機構銀行這樣的企業時，某些領域的費用分割高達 80%，利差高達 20%。它因業務而異，因為有些業務比其他業務更資本密集。但這是我們查看滲透率的指標之一。

As it relates to scale, and I think it's a really good and important question. On one hand, there's no question that if you have to carry more capital and capital is more expensive, that would put more of a premium on scale than before. And the same would go for things like cyber.

因為它與規模有關，我認為這是一個非常好的且重要的問題。一方面，毫無疑問，如果你必須攜帶更多的資本，而資本更昂貴，那麼規模上的溢價就會比以前更高。對於網路等事物也是如此。

So on the margin, yes, scale would be probably more important today than it was 12 months ago. Having said that, I do not think scale is the answer for a bank like Key.

因此，從某種程度上來說，是的，今天的規模可能比 12 個月前更重要。話雖如此，我認為規模並不是像 Key 這樣的銀行的答案。

And I say that because when you have competitors that are 20x as big as you are, the question really is what is scale? And as you know, what we've decided to do is focus on targeted scale to be really, really relevant to the customers that we try to be relevant to.

我這麼說是因為當你的競爭對手的規模是你的 20 倍時，真正的問題是什麼是規模？如您所知，我們決定要做的是專注於目標規模，以便與我們試圖與之相關的客戶真正、真正相關。

We're certainly not trying to compete in the same manner that the largest banks -- they have a nice business model, it works for them, but that's not a business model, Mike, that we're executing at all. Does that answer your question?

我們當然不會試圖以與最大的銀行相同的方式競爭——他們有一個很好的商業模式，這對他們來說很有效，但這根本不是我們正在執行的商業模式，麥克。這是否回答你的問題？

Yes. I mean I think this kind of goes to the stickiness of corporate deposits and how that's changed over the past year. And you answered the question of fees. How much of the value of your commercial relationship is deposit driven and you have the cash from treasury management and other services that you provide corporate treasurers. Is that still sticky? And is that like 20%, 30%, 50% of the value, as some have said?

是的。我的意思是，我認為這與企業存款的黏性以及過去一年的變化有關。您回答了費用問題。您的商業關係的價值有多少是由存款驅動的，您從財務管理和為公司財務主管提供的其他服務中獲得了現金。那還黏嗎？是不是像有些人所說的那樣，是價值的 20%、30%、50%？

And then just another follow-up is just what does all your thinking mean about acquisitions, if and when the unrealized securities losses go down for you and the targets? Are you looking to be in that game or not?

然後另一個後續問題是，如果您和目標公司的未實現證券損失下降，您對收購的所有想法意味著什麼？您是否想參加該遊戲？

Well, on the acquisition front, as you know, we've had a lot of success buying niche businesses and successfully integrating them, which I don't think a lot of large companies -- forget about banking, have had a lot of success doing.

嗯，在收購方面，如你所知，我們在購買利基業務並成功整合它們方面取得了很多成功，我認為很多大公司（忘記銀行業）都沒有取得很大成功正在做。

We are still -- because of our targeted scale focus, we are still interested in doing that. We're always building these positive people and actually looking for small organizations.

由於我們的目標規模重點，我們仍然有興趣這樣做。我們一直在培養這些積極的人才，並實際上正在尋找小型組織。

In terms of looking, Mike, at depositories, that's not something we're spending any time doing. I think when you kind of look at sort of the landscape, one, I think the regulatory/approval process, I think there's a lot of questions around that.

麥克，就查看存款機構而言，這不是我們花時間做的事情。我認為，當你審視某種情況時，我認為監管/審批流程，我認為圍繞這一點存在很多問題。

Obviously, the pull to par, any unrealized losses become realized losses in the event of an acquisition. And then secondly, there's just so much uncertainty in the marketplace. I think one would have a lot of questions about what is actually in the book of the company that you're acquiring. So that's not something I'm spending a lot of time on.

顯然，在收購時，任何未實現的損失都會變成已實現的損失。其次，市場存在太多不確定性。我認為人們會對你所收購的公司的帳簿中實際包含的內容有很多疑問。所以這不是我花很多時間的事情。

Getting back to your question, there's no question that, that is a significant value in the deposits. And for example, that's one of the reasons we're really focused this year on building out our business banking business because that's a business that's very deposit centric. And as you think about going forward, there's a lot of value in there.

回到你的問題，毫無疑問，存款的價值非常大。例如，這就是我們今年真正專注於建立我們的商業銀行業務的原因之一，因為這是一項非常以存款為中心的業務。當你思考未來時，你會發現其中有很多價值。

I don't have off the top of my head what percentage is the contribution. I think it's around -- we'll circle back to you. I think it's about 30% of the value is in the payments and deposits. But we will circle back to you and confirm that.

我不知道貢獻的百分比是多少。我想它就在附近——我們會回到你身邊。我認為大約 30% 的價值來自付款和存款。但我們會回覆您並確認這一點。

Next, we go to Steven Alexopoulos with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們請摩根大通的史蒂文·阿萊克索普洛斯 (Steven Alexopoulos) 發言。

I want to start out, Vern, like everybody else said, almost everybody on the call. Congratulations. You're really one of a kind, so we're going to miss you.

我想開始，弗恩，就像其他人所說的那樣，幾乎所有參加電話會議的人都說。恭喜。你真的是獨一無二的，所以我們會想念你的。

In terms of my question, so first, I want to go back, Clark, to your response to Scotty Siefers' earlier question on where NIM could go. You said 2.80% to 3%, like in a more normal environment, whatever the hell that is, right? We haven't seen that in 20 years. But you guys used to do 3% to 3.20%.

就我的問題而言，首先，克拉克，我想回到您對斯科蒂·西弗斯之前關於 NIM 可以走向何方的問題的回答。你說的是 2.80% 到 3%，就像在更正常的環境中一樣，不管那是什麼，對吧？我們已經 20 年沒見過這樣的情況了。但你們過去都是做3%到3.20%的。

Is there something -- it's really a 2-part question. One, is there something structural maybe the way you're using swaps today that there's a lower ceiling on them, like 3% to 3.20% is done, maybe 3% is like upper end?

有什麼東西嗎——這實際上是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。第一，是否有一些結構性的東西，也許你今天使用掉期的方式有一個較低的上限，例如 3% 到 3.20% 已經完成了，也許 3% 是上限？

And then secondly, assuming this benefit accrues through 2024, that's up for a good 2025. Now -- and maybe for Chris, how do you think about this, like NIMs expanding pretty nicely in 2025, assuming we have a more normal curve. Is that the time you now step up the pace of investment you've been cutting or expenses forever? Is that the time where you step up? Or do you let that benefit fall to the bottom line?

其次，假設這種效益持續到2024 年，那麼到2025 年就會有一個好的結果。現在，也許對Chris 來說，你如何看待這個問題，例如NIM 在2025 年會很好地擴張，假設我們有一個更正常的曲線。現在是時候加快您一直在削減的投資或永遠支出的步伐了嗎？那是你挺身而出的時候嗎？或者你會讓這個好處落入底線嗎？

Yes. So a couple of questions in there, and thank you for acknowledging no normal environment has existed. But the structural piece, I would say, Steve, relative to Key over the last 20 years, but particularly going into the crisis, would be, I think the loan book profile is quite a bit different.

是的。這裡有幾個問題，感謝您承認不存在正常環境。但史蒂夫，我想說的是，相對於過去 20 年的 Key，特別是在陷入危機時，結構性部分是，我認為貸款帳簿的情況有很大不同。

So if you think about the quality of the borrowers, the 55% of C&I being investment grade, the structural differences in our CRE portfolio, the largely residential real estate collateralized kind of super prime consumer. All of those things kind of lean you towards a little bit lower base NII just because of the quality of that portfolio.

因此，如果你考慮借款人的質量，55% 的 C&I 屬於投資級別，我們的 CRE 投資組合的結構性差異，主要是住宅房地產抵押的超級優質消費者。所有這些因素都會讓你傾向於較低的基礎 NII，只是因為該投資組合的品質。

And, Clark, I would add card as well.

而且，克拉克，我也會加卡片。

I mean, yes, card, which we have, but it's highly transactor based versus balance based.

我的意思是，是的，我們有卡，但它是高度基於交易者而不是基於餘額的。

Now given that, you would expect credit losses to be better, and we think they will be certainly better than us historically, but you would expect better on a relative basis.

有鑑於此，您預期信貸損失會更好，我們認為它們肯定會比歷史上的我們更好，但您會期望在相對基礎上更好。

And your other question would be, okay, how do you monetize those clients to make sure that you're getting the right returns and getting business on it. We think we do that really well in the commercial business. We think we're doing that better and better as you go down market in commercial with things like payments, and we think we're getting much better on wealth and building the wealth business in the consumer space. So we think we're building those capabilities and have the opportunity to do that.

你的另一個問題是，好吧，你如何透過這些客戶獲利，以確保你獲得正確的回報並從中獲得業務。我們認為我們在商業業務中做得非常好。我們認為，隨著支付等商業領域的深入發展，我們在這方面做得越來越好，我們認為，我們在財富方面做得越來越好，並在消費領域建立財富業務。因此，我們認為我們正在建立這些能力，並且有機會做到這一點。

But I do think if you look back over time, there's probably a base structural nature of NII that's a little bit lower, given the quality of the portfolio and that's very intentional. You've heard Chris talk about that at length.

但我確實認為，如果你回顧過去，考慮到投資組合的質量，NII 的基本結構性質可能會稍微低一些，而且這是非常有意的。你已經聽過克里斯詳細談論過這個問題。

We have been tight on expenses. We've been doing that largely to maintain our ability to invest. And the short answer is hard to predict exactly what we do. I think it's a function of how much expansion do we see, how much investment capacity does that create? And frankly, how much high-quality investments are there in front of us.

我們的開支一直很緊張。我們這樣做主要是為了維持我們的投資能力。簡而言之，很難準確預測我們會做什麼。我認為這取決於我們看到了多少擴張，創造了多少投資能力？坦白說，還有多少優質投資擺在我們面前。

Our first investments are always going to be good clients and our people. And then in this world, you've got to continue to invest in technology.

我們的首要投資始終是優秀的客戶和我們的員工。然後在這個世界上，你必須繼續投資科技。

I actually think on an infrastructure basis, we've done a really good job over that -- on that over the last decade, and we'll continue to do that. But we're going to continue to make sure that we can invest and build the franchise the way we need to, to be competitive.

我實際上認為在基礎設施的基礎上，我們在過去十年中做得非常好，我們將繼續這樣做。但我們將繼續確保我們能夠以我們需要的方式投資和建立特許經營權，以保持競爭力。

And from an organic growth perspective, Steve, we obviously weren't doing our typical level of investment last year. But where you'll see us lean in, you'll see us lean into our unique integrated corporate and investment bank, where we've got a lot of success recruiting people.

從有機成長的角度來看，史蒂夫，我們去年顯然沒有達到典型的投資水準。但是，您會看到我們向我們傾斜，您會看到我們向我們獨特的綜合企業和投資銀行傾斜，我們在招聘人員方面取得了許多成功。

I mentioned earlier our $55 billion of AUM. We think that platform is eminently leverageable. We'll be investing in that. I mentioned also payments, and then lastly, I also mentioned business banking. Those are the areas where you'll see us leaning in from an investment perspective.

我之前提到我們的資產管理規模為 550 億美元。我們認為該平台具有極高的槓桿作用。我們將對此進行投資。我還提到了支付，最後我還提到了商業銀行業務。您會看到我們從投資角度傾向於這些領域。

Got it. Okay. If I can ask one other question. So Chris, it's interesting to hear you're so bullish on credit. I say that because if you listen to every other person they have on CNBC, all they point to is all this pressure coming on commercial real estate to a regional bank like you guys.

知道了。好的。如果我可以再問一個問題的話。克里斯，很有趣的是聽到你如此看好信貸。我這麼說是因為如果你聽聽 CNBC 上其他人的說法，他們所指出的就是像你們這樣的地區銀行面臨著商業房地產面臨的所有壓力。

Can you just say to the investors that are on the line right now, what's happening? I mean you had commercial real estate loans come up for renewal in the fourth quarter. I know you don't have a large office portfolio, but I'm sure some of them came up for renewal.

您能告訴現在線上的投資者，發生了什麼事嗎？我的意思是，第四季度您有商業房地產貸款需要續約。我知道您沒有大量的辦公室組合，但我確信其中一些需要更新。

What's happening? Are you able to renew because the LTV, like you said, was 60%? You've got a higher cap rate, they're getting renewed. There's a perception that it's nothing more than extend and pretend and you're just -- the banks are just kicking the can down the road.

發生了什麼事？正如您所說，LTV 為 60%，您能否續訂？你的資本化率更高，他們正在更新。有一種看法認為，這只不過是延長和假裝，而銀行只是在拖延時間。

So I'd love to hear your view on what's now happening as these loans are coming up for renewal?

所以我很想聽聽您對這些貸款即將續約時目前發生的情況的看法？

Sure. Well, you got to look backwards a bit, and first of all, we had outsized losses in real estate during the financial crisis, and we said we'd never do that again, and we literally ripped the business down to the studs and rebuilt it, and rebuild it around an underwrite to distribute model. So Fannie, Freddie, FHA, the life companies, the CMBS market.

當然。好吧，你必須稍微回顧一下，首先，我們在金融危機期間在房地產方面遭受了巨大損失，我們說我們再也不會這樣做了，我們實際上把業務拆散了，然後重建了它，並圍繞承保分銷模型重建它。所以房利美、房地美、FHA、壽險公司、CMBS 市場。

We also said we're only going to finance the best real estate people in the right sectors, in the right geographies. And so we've been very, very prescriptive. So we distributed a bunch. 13% of our total loan book is in real estate.

我們也表示，我們只會為正確領域、正確地區最優秀的房地產人才提供資金。所以我們一直都非常非常規範。所以我們分發了一堆。我們貸款總額的 13% 屬於房地產。

What's happening on the ground is because of the people that we're financing. When we go through the math and because of the rise in interest rates, because they qualify then as a criticized loan, we go to them and we ask them for an interest reserve and they give it to us.

實地發生的一切都是因為我們資助的人。當我們進行數學計算時，由於利率上升，因為它們有資格成為受批評的貸款，我們去找他們，要求他們提供利息儲備，然後他們給了我們。

So what is going on, on the ground with us, I'm not sure it's representative of the whole market. But it's been -- it's the work that we did starting 10 years ago that really has put us in the position that we're in now.

那麼，我們的實際情況如何，我不確定它是否能代表整個市場。但正是我們從 10 年前開始所做的工作才真正讓我們處於現在的位置。

Got it. May be unique, but still nonetheless, not the overhang that maybe some are being led to believe.

知道了。可能是獨一無二的，但仍然不是一些人可能相信的懸而未決的問題。

Indeed.

的確。

Next, we go to Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

接下來，我們和傑弗里斯一起去見肯·烏斯丁。

Sorry for the late question here. Congrats to both Vern and Brian. Just one on expenses and efficiency. You guys did a great job last year, taking the actions to continue to head towards stable-ish expenses.

很抱歉在這裡提出遲到的問題。恭喜弗恩和布萊恩。只是關於費用和效率的一件事。你們去年做得很好，採取了行動繼續實現穩定的支出。

I'm just wondering how much more flex you have in there in terms of things you can continue to do to offset the expected investments that you continue to talk about and need to make. And how can you keep that stable trajectory as you look further out?

我只是想知道，在您可以繼續做的事情方面，您還有多少靈活性來抵消您繼續談論和需要進行的預期投資。當你放眼更遠的時候，如何才能保持穩定的軌跡呢？

Thanks for the question, Ken. Whenever I'm talking to our team, I tell everybody, we're all risk managers. We're all responsible for revenue, and we're all responsible for managing expenses.

謝謝你的提問，肯。每當我與我們的團隊交談時，我都會告訴每個人，我們都是風險管理者。我們都對收入負責，我們都對管理費用負責。

We're spending, as I mentioned, about $1.1 billion a quarter. There are always things that we can do better to create the raw material to continue to invest.

正如我所提到的，我們每季的支出約為 11 億美元。總有一些事情我們可以做得更好，以創造繼續投資的原料。

And in our business, unfortunately, the real cost is people. And if you look point-to-point, we have 1,369 less people on the team today than we did a year ago. And obviously, that will pull through.

不幸的是，在我們的行業中，真正的成本是人員。如果逐點查看，我們今天的團隊人數比一年前減少了 1,369 人。顯然，這將會成功。

There's also -- you also get a big pickup when you exit businesses like we did in vendor finance, where you can take out front, middle and back office. So we did a lot of the heavy lifting, Ken, last year. I don't see that level of heavy lifting continuing, but it's something that we just have to stay after every single day. Thanks for the question.

還有——當你退出業務時，你也會得到很大的回報，就像我們在供應商融資中所做的那樣，你可以取消前台、中台和後台辦公室。所以，肯，去年我們做了很多繁重的工作。我不認為這種繁重的工作會持續下去，但這是我們每天都必須堅持的事情。謝謝你的提問。

And next, we go to a question from Bill Carcache.

接下來，我們回答 Bill Carcache 的問題。

I was hoping you could give some color on the sentiment you're hearing from your clients for the soft landing scenario to play out. It seems like we would need to see the disinflation trends, not just continue from here, but there would also need to be a reacceleration in loan growth. And I guess maybe first, do you agree with that? And if so, how likely do you think we are to see loan growth reacceleration from here based on what you're seeing and hearing from your clients?

我希望您能對您從​​客戶那裡聽到的對軟著陸場景的看法發表一些看法。看來我們需要看到通貨緊縮趨勢，不僅是從這裡繼續下去，還需要貸款成長重新加速。我想也許首先，你同意這一點嗎？如果是這樣，根據您從客戶那裡看到和聽到的情況，您認為我們從現在開始看到貸款成長重新加速的可能性有多大？

Well, I think it goes back to inflation and is inflation really under control? And if it isn't, what actions will the Fed be required to take or not take, given what the forwards are saying in order to get inflation under control?

嗯，我認為這又回到了通貨膨脹，通貨膨脹真的得到控制了嗎？如果不是，考慮到遠期人士所說的為了控制通膨，聯準會需要採取或不採取哪些行動？

Right now, our customers are in good shape. As you know, the job market is in good shape. Interesting data point and one of the reasons I think inflation is going to be stickier than people think.

目前，我們的客戶狀況良好。如您所知，就業市場狀況良好。有趣的數據點，也是我認為通膨會比人們想像的更棘手的原因之一。

Our noninterest-bearing customers today have 33% more dollars in their account than they did pre-pandemic. So I just feel like -- so I think that's a risk. And so if we get a soft landing, I think there'll be opportunities for loan growth. We -- in our planning, we're assuming a short recession in 2024 for all the reasons I just described.

如今，我們的無息客戶帳戶中的資金比疫情前多了 33%。所以我只是覺得——所以我認為這是一個風險。因此，如果我們實現軟著陸，我認為貸款成長將有機會。在我們的規劃中，基於我剛才描述的所有原因，我們假設 2024 年將出現短暫衰退。

Understood. Very good. That's very helpful. And let me also add my congratulations, Vern. All the best and looking forward to working with you as well, Brian.

明白了。非常好。這非常有幫助。讓我也表示祝賀，弗恩。一切順利，也期待與您合作，布萊恩。

And ladies and gentlemen, we will now be turning the conference back to Chris Gorman for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們現在將把會議轉回克里斯·戈爾曼（Chris Gorman）致閉幕詞。

Again, we thank you for participating in our call today. If you have any follow-up questions, you can direct them to our Investor Relations team, (216) 689-4221. This concludes our remarks. Have a good day all.

我們再次感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。如果您有任何後續問題，可以直接聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊，電話 (216) 689-4221。我們的發言到此結束。祝大家有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。